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+[{"id": "btcdnK7sTJB5aHDYtncE", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703081452769, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703977200000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on December 30 than it closed on December 29?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-3-52b92cda38ae", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-3-52b92cda38ae", "pool": {"NO": 128.00901844909296, "YES": 294.1791614620127}, "probability": 0.3402396635596676, "p": 0.5423636578720291, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 659.8616783512826, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703986869320, "resolutionProbability": 0.34, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703986869637, "lastBetTime": 1703977076111, "lastCommentTime": 1703986862166, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F31e9a4636966.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "crypto-prices", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "B5L2IKyrz1J6pRNMhXO1", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1705463001491, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1710639237000, "question": "Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary?", "slug": "will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-5f5b53f3d46b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-5f5b53f3d46b", "pool": {"NO": 21107.40714036322, "YES": 325.5446416777413}, "probability": 0.9975772162958898, "p": 0.8639547305910991, "totalLiquidity": 710, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 30673.09046792079, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710639237000, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 40, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710639237704, "lastBetTime": 1710639233670, "lastCommentTime": 1705874653267, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if the 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary was cancaled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F98e71f352305.jpg", "textDescription": "Resolves N/A if the 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary was cancaled"}, {"id": "zdmh6d4rFBMxyhCF9HEo", "creatorId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "creatorUsername": "_deleted_", "creatorName": "~deleted~", "createdTime": 1704567918683, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F_deleted_%2FHXynTRyz0d.jpg?alt=media&token=e921532c-19c1-4525-a1a2-5daa17ba2289", "closeTime": 1706953666459, "question": "Will the Apple Vision Pro go on sale IN February, 2024?", "slug": "will-the-apple-vision-pro-go-on-sal-8460b517ddaa", "url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-the-apple-vision-pro-go-on-sal-8460b517ddaa", "pool": {"NO": 9972.71382257156, "YES": 510.96859161911743}, "probability": 0.9935930599612085, "p": 0.8882159526024733, "totalLiquidity": 1020, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21899.9969231063, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706953666459, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "uniqueBettorCount": 52, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706953667139, "lastBetTime": 1706953659288, "lastCommentTime": 1706909418782, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pacific Time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Goes on sale anywhere in the world to end-users, not developers.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "## Please note that this market is specifically for whether it goes on sale in FEBRUARY. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- If it goes on sale on January, or March, or any month after that, this market will resolve to no. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- This market resolves to YES only if the product is available for purchase by the end users in Feb", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/firstuserhere%2F509f43852c4b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["apple-vision-pro", "technology-default", "apple"], "textDescription": "Pacific Time.\n\nGoes on sale anywhere in the world to end-users, not developers.\n\n## Please note that this market is specifically for whether it goes on sale in FEBRUARY. \n\n- If it goes on sale on January, or March, or any month after that, this market will resolve to no. \n- This market resolves to YES only if the product is available for purchase by the end users in Feb"}, {"id": "WOVwOXfPjdaZe6lJFx1B", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1703612546096, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704056170126, "question": "Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Arizona Cardinals in their Week 17 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-philadelphia-eagles-beat-t-c584a663bd42", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-philadelphia-eagles-beat-t-c584a663bd42", "pool": {"NO": 6.849095960946031, "YES": 1440.8924204861514}, "probability": 0.003540977891521961, "p": 0.42778261200551493, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3716.5340553664882, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704056203833, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704056204362, "lastBetTime": 1704056168246, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Eagles win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Cardinals win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/RJPerez%2Fc1279a5afbd3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["arizona-cardinals", "philadelphia-eagles", "football", "sports-default", "nfl"], "textDescription": "Yes - Eagles win\n\nNo - Cardinals win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "GN6W0Hv2PZUKkz2Wwvud", "creatorId": "dQj5tDy5ZkYwHCExKcD3YZqSFYz1", "creatorUsername": "Xmas", "creatorName": "Xmas", "createdTime": 1709332579103, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FXmas%2FDNciS8r2ln.jpeg?alt=media&token=b700e891-6d11-4557-9d0e-8ab7afbb51cd", "closeTime": 1709371297079, "question": "Will Destiny start going through logs and ban chatters after the podcast ends?", "slug": "will-destiny-start-going-through-lo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Xmas/will-destiny-start-going-through-lo", "pool": {"NO": 166.2665086176535, "YES": 413.08444844178985}, "probability": 0.18699621877776273, "p": 0.36364295796323204, "totalLiquidity": 240, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 566.3092738964353, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709371297079, "resolutionProbability": 0.19, "resolverId": "dQj5tDy5ZkYwHCExKcD3YZqSFYz1", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709371297576, "lastBetTime": 1709359722298, "lastCommentTime": 1709346684918, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the podcast ends, will Destiny go through dgg and start banning chatters for poor criticism or shit talking? ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Xmas%2Fa8e80b008a87.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "After the podcast ends, will Destiny go through dgg and start banning chatters for poor criticism or shit talking? "}, {"id": "YwqMqMSNkceSUQKlHERL", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1702517146063, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1706792305596, "question": "Will FED cut rates at their January 2024 meeting?", "slug": "will-fed-cut-rates-at-their-january", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-fed-cut-rates-at-their-january", "pool": {"NO": 170.7712547420411, "YES": 8193.5386480954}, "probability": 0.0034283712168861284, "p": 0.1416734877660404, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10759.49268553831, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706792305596, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206875234, "lastBetTime": 1706737042557, "lastCommentTime": 1703369471788, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve to \"YES\" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (over the level it was prior to the meeting)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", on any of its meetings.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "calendar of meetings", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQNfWTYVb-C.png?alt=media&token=d3d95fb4-382b-4368-af53-f1499fedbc5d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83d\udcc5 FIND SUCH MARKET FOR OTHER DATES ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "HERE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?q=Will+FED+cut+rates+at+their&s=score&f=open&ct=ALL&topic=interest-rates", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/itsTomekK%2Fd259a846150c.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["inflation", "federal-reserve", "interest-rates"], "textDescription": "FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"YES\" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meetings.\n\ncalendar of meetings\n\n[image]\ud83d\udcc5 FIND SUCH MARKET FOR OTHER DATES HERE\n\n\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"}, {"id": "l19sA4leq8pKIfeE1xLA", "creatorId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "creatorUsername": "marktwse", "creatorName": "Marktwse", "createdTime": 1705703288143, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmarktwse%2FWjhyMIEV_F.png?alt=media&token=6048ec55-a1e3-4188-9bef-c594df1664e4", "closeTime": 1706031329554, "question": "Will the Dutch request to tax their king?", "slug": "will-the-dutch-request-to-tax-their", "url": "https://manifold.markets/marktwse/will-the-dutch-request-to-tax-their", "pool": {"NO": 871.7186363181162, "YES": 136.46324913196182}, "probability": 0.924521025011101, "p": 0.6572380922495589, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 654.6141819981473, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706031329554, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "resolverId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706033126737, "lastBetTime": 1706023455936, "lastCommentTime": 1706033124989, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dutch lawmakers will vote on Tuesday on a first step towards requiring King Willem-Alexander and his family to pay income tax, a plan that would require an amendment to the constitution. [...]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The initial motion, expected to be put to the vote on Tuesday, requires a simple majority to pass. It asks the government to propose a constitutional change, which would then ultimately need backing from two-thirds of both houses of parliament. (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "source", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-parliament-considers-first-step-towards-asking-king-pay-income-tax-2024-01-19/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the vote on Tuesday passes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if it fails.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " about the constitutional change but only about the request to the government.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date might change if the vote is shifted.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/marktwse%2Fe9415124d1ce.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["tax", "royalty", "the-netherlands"], "textDescription": "Dutch lawmakers will vote on Tuesday on a first step towards requiring King Willem-Alexander and his family to pay income tax, a plan that would require an amendment to the constitution. [...]\n\nThe initial motion, expected to be put to the vote on Tuesday, requires a simple majority to pass. It asks the government to propose a constitutional change, which would then ultimately need backing from two-thirds of both houses of parliament. (source)\n\nResolves YES if the vote on Tuesday passes.\n\nResolves NO if it fails.\n\nThis is not about the constitutional change but only about the request to the government.\n\nClose date might change if the vote is shifted."}, {"id": "ve6YSXCEtt849Jk64e7u", "creatorId": "U7riHiuE0hdW3TLw3PFcxJ31Xq03", "creatorUsername": "qrdlkaggle", "creatorName": "qrdl kaggle", "createdTime": 1702456277875, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ3B8QiXeURV-Ye2VkAYV2aadIA32fT4empqE_YBXbB=s96-c", "closeTime": 1702543475256, "question": "GPT4-Resolving:   Was Tesla the most active stock on NASDAQ by Dollar Volume during regular trading hours?", "slug": "gpt4resolving-was-tesla-the-most-ac-5790e0b497ed", "url": "https://manifold.markets/qrdlkaggle/gpt4resolving-was-tesla-the-most-ac-5790e0b497ed", "pool": {"NO": 55.97014925373134, "YES": 44.666666666666686}, "probability": 0.5561597785248171, "p": 0.5000000000000001, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 13, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702543475256, "resolutionProbability": 0.56, "resolverId": "U7riHiuE0hdW3TLw3PFcxJ31Xq03", "uniqueBettorCount": 1, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702543574783, "lastBetTime": 1702456312516, "lastCommentTime": 1702543573058, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved by GPT4 on a daily basis.  ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Right now it's an experiment, and if it goes well,I'll start automating it and adding more markets.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Every day after the bell I'll ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " grab the text from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.marketbeat.com/market-data/most-active-stocks/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.marketbeat.com/market-data/most-active-stocks/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "  ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "via beautifulsoup call get_text and append \"What was the Most Active Stocks by Dollar Volume?\" and call gpt-4-1106-preview with it", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve this market based on the answer using the api at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0markets", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The goal here is make these markets fully automated.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Learnings so far ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT4 isn't so great at pulling data out of a table, prompt matters.  \"What was the most active stock on the NASDAQ by Dollar Volume for today?\" failed, I had to use \"What was the most active by Dollar Volume stock?\", with the former constantly saying \"he text does not provide information for the most active stock on the NASDAQ by Dollar Volume for today.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution source is a big hurdle - needs to be consistently retrievable and accurate", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "gpt-4-1106-preview may provide better results", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Put some scratch code here - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://github.com/qrdlgit/manifold/blob/main/scratch", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/qrdlgit/manifold/blob/main/scratch", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/qrdlkaggle%2F0ed4eb6f4327.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["gpt4resolution"], "textDescription": "This market will be resolved by GPT4 on a daily basis.  \n\nRight now it's an experiment, and if it goes well,I'll start automating it and adding more markets.\n\nEvery day after the bell I'll \n\n grab the text from https://www.marketbeat.com/market-data/most-active-stocks/  \n\nvia beautifulsoup call get_text and append \"What was the Most Active Stocks by Dollar Volume?\" and call gpt-4-1106-preview with it\n\nResolve this market based on the answer using the api at https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0markets\n\nThe goal here is make these markets fully automated.\n\n\nLearnings so far \n\nGPT4 isn't so great at pulling data out of a table, prompt matters.  \"What was the most active stock on the NASDAQ by Dollar Volume for today?\" failed, I had to use \"What was the most active by Dollar Volume stock?\", with the former constantly saying \"he text does not provide information for the most active stock on the NASDAQ by Dollar Volume for today.\"\n\nResolution source is a big hurdle - needs to be consistently retrievable and accurate\n\ngpt-4-1106-preview may provide better results\n\nPut some scratch code here - https://github.com/qrdlgit/manifold/blob/main/scratch\n\n\n\n"}, {"id": "Hcpt9TI7z4W4ERTThZIz", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1708126897263, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1708718400000, "question": "Will Netflix close higher than 583.95 on February 23?", "slug": "will-netflix-close-higher-than-5839", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-netflix-close-higher-than-5839", "pool": {"NO": 587.8655921139298, "YES": 581.0481062928566}, "probability": 0.6198741642877316, "p": 0.6171217715109759, "totalLiquidity": 610, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1695.8930795493834, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708726222879, "resolutionProbability": 0.62, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 32, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708727015262, "lastBetTime": 1708716345675, "lastCommentTime": 1708727014665, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Netflix Inc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=NFLX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NFLX closes at 4pm EST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " 3pm EST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes higher than 583.95", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock closes lower.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "50% ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes flat.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F8cc3509e4a48.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["fun", "entertainment", "keen-stocks", "technology-default", "gaming", "stocks-league-beta", "stocks", "economics-default", "finance", "netflix"], "textDescription": "Netflix Inc\n\nResolves according to Google Close Price\n\nNFLX closes at 4pm EST\n\nThis market closes at 3pm EST\n\nResolves YES if stock closes higher than 583.95\n\nResolves NO if stock closes lower.\n\nResolves 50% if stock closes flat.\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "f7qMDgz2RUYEjzB6Q9NQ", "creatorId": "4oAycBhZOySa25BNSUHh6RZ8ETt2", "creatorUsername": "Marq", "creatorName": "Ion Marqvardsen", "createdTime": 1704409462389, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FIonMarqvardsen%2Fw4a0GY3U7x.jpeg?alt=media&token=c44aff37-65d0-4428-a1df-6f36395f4296", "closeTime": 1705100340000, "question": "Is Israel presenting more credible evidence than USA did in the buildup to the Iraq war?", "slug": "who-showed-the-most-convincing-evid", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Marq/who-showed-the-most-convincing-evid", "pool": {"NO": 421.53585527203114, "YES": 121.81195159016634}, "probability": 0.8112561710401981, "p": 0.5539805005943578, "totalLiquidity": 213.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 280.84708139914113, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705101828578, "resolutionProbability": 0.81, "resolverId": "4oAycBhZOySa25BNSUHh6RZ8ETt2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705101828986, "lastBetTime": 1705098700700, "lastCommentTime": 1704632296229, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yesterday Israel released what it described as \u201cnew evidence\u201d for the Hamas command center under hospital.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This evidence has now been reported in Wall Street Journal, the economist and in CNN. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It\u2019s a d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu to the buildup to the Iraq war, 2003, when the Bush administration claimed Sadam Hussein had multiple facilities for production of weapons of mass destruction. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By now we know that the WMD story was false. But at the time it was pretty convincing. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Is Israel more convincing than USA was back then?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will let the Manifold people decide. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Marq%2F4fd6189709e0.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "selfresolving", "unsubsidized", "nonpredictive"], "textDescription": "Yesterday Israel released what it described as \u201cnew evidence\u201d for the Hamas command center under hospital.\n\nThis evidence has now been reported in Wall Street Journal, the economist and in CNN. \n\nIt\u2019s a d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu to the buildup to the Iraq war, 2003, when the Bush administration claimed Sadam Hussein had multiple facilities for production of weapons of mass destruction. \n\nBy now we know that the WMD story was false. But at the time it was pretty convincing. \n\nIs Israel more convincing than USA was back then?\n\nI will let the Manifold people decide. "}, {"id": "w6QLci8EjJfq8TtGc8NB", "creatorId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "creatorUsername": "_deleted_", "creatorName": "~deleted~", "createdTime": 1704392607070, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F_deleted_%2FHXynTRyz0d.jpg?alt=media&token=e921532c-19c1-4525-a1a2-5daa17ba2289", "closeTime": 1704814976857, "question": "Will the Apple Vision Pro go on sale before the end of January, 2024?", "slug": "will-the-apple-vision-pro-go-on-sal", "url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-the-apple-vision-pro-go-on-sal", "pool": {"NO": 775.6498503465853, "YES": 19709.1609892301}, "probability": 0.007312683962456366, "p": 0.15766998676183383, "totalLiquidity": 1390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 79420.28598265765, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704814976857, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "uniqueBettorCount": 140, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705704265513, "lastBetTime": 1704811026571, "lastCommentTime": 1705704263903, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pacific Time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Goes on sale anywhere in the world to end-users, not developers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the time of creation of market, it was assumed that the orders will be in-person only. If that's the case, no problems. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If that turnss out not to be the case, and that users can purchase the product online as well, then it would count if orders are possible via the apple website. Note that these must not be \"pre-orders\" but actual orders of the product for it to count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/firstuserhere%2Fef41b35177c9.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "apple-vision-pro", "apple"], "textDescription": "Pacific Time.\n\nGoes on sale anywhere in the world to end-users, not developers.\n\nAt the time of creation of market, it was assumed that the orders will be in-person only. If that's the case, no problems. \n\nIf that turnss out not to be the case, and that users can purchase the product online as well, then it would count if orders are possible via the apple website. Note that these must not be \"pre-orders\" but actual orders of the product for it to count."}, {"id": "0BVQDC8NNJArxKmlasRl", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706390050489, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706473500000, "question": "Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-01-28 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-82f7d8dbf15d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-82f7d8dbf15d", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.16666666666666663, "p": 0.16666666666666663, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706533077499, "resolutionProbability": 0.17, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706533077717, "lastBetTime": 1706390058092, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-28 20:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-28 - 22:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 06:45", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=01&date=28", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=01&date=28", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af333", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fbb5bbdc229d5.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-28 20:25 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-28 - 22:25 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 06:45\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "QIkIo55GW1flzb9rc9Z5", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704920301228, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704948600000, "question": "Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2024-01-11 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-0dd058bb6bb6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-0dd058bb6bb6", "pool": {"NO": 96.23068654550885, "YES": 23.05869485064377}, "probability": 0.7900000000000003, "p": 0.47407827024397586, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 47.34710884573797, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705002516028, "resolutionProbability": 0.79, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705002516271, "lastBetTime": 1704948113033, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-11 04:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-11 - 06:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=11", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=11", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lo331", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fc787bf9f1ac0.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-11 04:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-11 - 06:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:10\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "FzsST0EcnVFD3ZvnCGaW", "creatorId": "GIksEjXTgQURBbIHCqcJ0FjV0nT2", "creatorUsername": "Keeto", "creatorName": "Keeto", "createdTime": 1710843925809, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKSorQtAVyjcs_Daqc_uDA4_4kDubo5MZX1iivUKMRja2Q=s96-c", "closeTime": 1710957550126, "question": "Will House of Lords send back the Rwanda bill to the Commons a second time?", "slug": "will-house-of-lords-send-back-the-r", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Keeto/will-house-of-lords-send-back-the-r", "pool": {"NO": 242.8924355718342, "YES": 169.5704469000801}, "probability": 0.6562624617565108, "p": 0.5713428789305706, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 85, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710957550126, "resolutionProbability": 0.66, "resolverId": "GIksEjXTgQURBbIHCqcJ0FjV0nT2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710957550126, "lastBetTime": 1710939283017, "lastCommentTime": 1710891888311, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Now that the Commons have voted to reject the House of Lords amendments to the Rwanda bill will the Lords vote again for new amendments and send it back to the Commons?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve NO if the bill passes House of Lords with no further amendments. Will resolve YES if the House of Lords add amendments and send the bill back to the House of Commons", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "-rwanda"], "textDescription": "Now that the Commons have voted to reject the House of Lords amendments to the Rwanda bill will the Lords vote again for new amendments and send it back to the Commons?\n\nWill resolve NO if the bill passes House of Lords with no further amendments. Will resolve YES if the House of Lords add amendments and send the bill back to the House of Commons"}, {"id": "ZvQ8a4twNMrvs5C1KBYE", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1704076472726, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1704139200000, "question": "($250M Subsidy) Will the Vegas Golden Knights beat Seattle Kraken on January 1? (Prediction Market)", "slug": "250m-subsidy-will-the-vegas-golden", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/250m-subsidy-will-the-vegas-golden", "pool": {"NO": 550.9030269305356, "YES": 401.69632068634775}, "probability": 0.5699999999999997, "p": 0.4914980033338879, "totalLiquidity": 480.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1380.233177576607, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704163903048, "resolutionProbability": 0.57, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704163903227, "lastBetTime": 1704136448134, "lastCommentTime": 1704163880890, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a predictive sports market - Live Action Sports ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts/50m-subsidy-will-new-york-beat-toro", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ". That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 2:00pm CST and sit back.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vegas Golden Knights vs Seattle Kraken @2pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=knights+vs+kraken", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game start at 2:00pm CST.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 2:00pm CST ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Vegas Golden Knights win. Resolve No otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fw_rbT_N7Lr.png?alt=media&token=e857112e-fc57-4adf-8be4-74da2bcad408", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F598a6742b9ec.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nhl", "hockey", "seattle-kraken", "vegas-golden-knights", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "This is a predictive sports market - Live Action Sports here. That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 2:00pm CST and sit back.\n\nVegas Golden Knights vs Seattle Kraken @2pm CST\n\nGame start at 2:00pm CST.\n\nThis market closes at 2:00pm CST \n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Vegas Golden Knights win. Resolve No otherwise.\n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "yGuelVz5niCOVvGwAAJw", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702921605927, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703026800000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on December 19 than it closed on December 18?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-1-e09132c2421b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-1-e09132c2421b", "pool": {"NO": 104.30923030308617, "YES": 516.606523699425}, "probability": 0.08831038974963613, "p": 0.32420359104803703, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 676.6875764810205, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703035204894, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703035201687, "lastBetTime": 1703026389925, "lastCommentTime": 1703035199918, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $0.6128", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F765220618af4.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "economics-default", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $0.6128\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "QBqVqT9rj2jM5xrgvZjY", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1715376969928, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1715607000000, "question": "Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher May 17 than May 10?", "slug": "will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-5dfb9f2c4fd2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-5dfb9f2c4fd2", "pool": {"NO": 126.7950856521362, "YES": 78.86740995179522}, "probability": 0.616520213273695, "p": 0.49999999999999983, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 73.51174116214395, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715985969799, "resolutionProbability": 0.62, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715607000000, "lastBetTime": 1715604027250, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVDA closes at 4pm ET", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " 9:30am ET on May 13", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes higher than $898.78", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock closes flat or lower", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/what-will-nvidias-nasdaq-nvda-close-fb8ac300afc9", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenW/03871b1a34eb.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "nvidia", "tech-stocks", "finance", "gpu"], "textDescription": "NVIDIA Corp - Resolves to Nasdaq Close Price\n\nNVDA closes at 4pm ET\n\nThis market closes at 9:30am ET on May 13\n\nResolves YES if stock closes higher than $898.78\n\nResolves NO if stock closes flat or lower\n\nDaily Dashboard\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/what-will-nvidias-nasdaq-nvda-close-fb8ac300afc9)Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "JkGU6KuNPj69tLLxOc9k", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1707184678443, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1707276301804, "question": "\ud83c\udfd2Will the Boston Bruins beat Calgary Flames on Feb 6?", "slug": "will-the-boston-bruins-beat-colorad", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-boston-bruins-beat-colorad", "pool": {"NO": 37.68803240892889, "YES": 2160.5080889979654}, "probability": 0.00720620584401719, "p": 0.29383629240113013, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2823.230076273344, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707276301804, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707276302564, "lastBetTime": 1707273787899, "lastCommentTime": 1707276292332, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boston Bruins vs Calgary Flames @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=bruins+vs+flames#sie=m;/g/11kqmryjj9;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Boston Bruins win. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F455197c1e145.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "yuna-league-beta", "hockey", "ice-hockey", "calgary-flames", "boston-bruins", "nhl"], "textDescription": "Boston Bruins vs Calgary Flames @6pm CST\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Boston Bruins win. \n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n"}, {"id": "P69OD7ZSi72sWtLNz9u1", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1705947098048, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1709682231467, "question": "[Metaculus] Will the \"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office be greater than that of \"Dune (2021)\"?", "slug": "metaculus-will-the-dune-part-two-do", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-the-dune-part-two-do", "pool": {"NO": 6615.806132804774, "YES": 515.1149869898119}, "probability": 0.972688751582456, "p": 0.7349606619864169, "totalLiquidity": 1030, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10585.684845985126, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709682231467, "resolverId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "uniqueBettorCount": 60, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709630366319, "lastBetTime": 1709630366133, "lastCommentTime": 1706547252547, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will the \"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office be greater than that of \"Dune (2021)\"?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21081/dune-part-two-domestic-opening-box-office/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21081/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if the domestic box office weekend opening of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dune: Part Two", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " as reported by its ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "page on Boxofficemojo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is greater than $41,011,174, the opening of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dune (2021)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". If the reported value is less than or equal to $41,011,174 the question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The box office value will be checked at least 10 days after the movie's release date to allow the actual data to be collected. Metaculus admins can further delay the question resolution date if there are reasons to believe that the value might significantly change and affect the resolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21081/dune-part-two-domestic-opening-box-office/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mirrorbot%2F59183bf4b38e.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus", "movies"], "textDescription": "Will the \"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office be greater than that of \"Dune (2021)\"?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21081/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if the domestic box office weekend opening of Dune: Part Two as reported by its page on Boxofficemojo is greater than $41,011,174, the opening of the Dune (2021). If the reported value is less than or equal to $41,011,174 the question will resolve as No.\n\nThe box office value will be checked at least 10 days after the movie's release date to allow the actual data to be collected. Metaculus admins can further delay the question resolution date if there are reasons to believe that the value might significantly change and affect the resolution.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues."}, {"id": "bUUeJS4QWPwPi8UYbbxs", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704116702392, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704350700000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-01-04 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-c7eaa72bbd37", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-c7eaa72bbd37", "pool": {"NO": 88.43371480734035, "YES": 105.23906467568288}, "probability": 0.05732896998073419, "p": 0.06748813917113743, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 51.71341415072037, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704396077905, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704396078124, "lastBetTime": 1704349179685, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-04 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-04 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fce30659183d7.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-04 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-04 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "yQL8GBLnht9UR46I68el", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1710965560110, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1711135800000, "question": "Will MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) close higher Mar 22 than Mar 21?", "slug": "will-microstrategy-nasdaq-mstr-clos-23aa99ab2c19", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-microstrategy-nasdaq-mstr-clos-23aa99ab2c19", "pool": {"NO": 43.29074509064642, "YES": 824.8020097146688}, "probability": 0.021570876965560624, "p": 0.29579565050398926, "totalLiquidity": 240, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1945.9766052295615, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711138134837, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711135800000, "lastBetTime": 1711134753656, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MicroStrategy Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/mstr", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MSTR closes at 4pm ET", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 3:30pm ET", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if MSTR closes higher Mar 22 than Mar 21", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if MSTR closes lower or flat", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["microstrategy", "nasdaq", "tech-stocks", "gpu", "ai-stocks", "stocks", "mstr"], "textDescription": "MicroStrategy Inc - Daily Dashboard\n\nResolves according to Nasdaq Close Price\n\nMSTR closes at 4pm ET\n\nThis market closes at 3:30pm ET\n\nInitial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.\n\nResolves YES if MSTR closes higher Mar 22 than Mar 21\n\nResolves NO if MSTR closes lower or flat\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "Rf7ghvy99TjrUGhqiY4k", "creatorId": "nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972", "creatorUsername": "SEE", "creatorName": "SEE", "createdTime": 1709317921687, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FStevenEhrbar%2FW500KZIyuo.jpg?alt=media&token=1de4c13b-fae4-4da1-90d4-d49ff5ae1dfb", "closeTime": 1711951140000, "question": "Will Joe Biden still be alive on April 1st, 2024?", "slug": "will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ap", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SEE/will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ap", "pool": {"NO": 3129.35206196167, "YES": 233.42373601874297}, "probability": 0.9954611994983864, "p": 0.9423951301186271, "totalLiquidity": 340, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7314.503486503743, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711975829401, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711951140000, "lastBetTime": 1711949178902, "lastCommentTime": 1711142088722, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Continuing my series of one-month markets on Joe Biden's survival.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As usual, I will not bet on my own market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SEE%2F93114202f0bd.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["death-markets", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden"], "textDescription": "Continuing my series of one-month markets on Joe Biden's survival.\n\nAs usual, I will not bet on my own market."}, {"id": "3JKTtRlPc80cjUxcnrJc", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1703624242398, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703644718705, "question": "Will the Detroit Pistons get the single-season losing streak tonight against the Brooklyn Nets?", "slug": "will-the-detroit-pistons-get-the-si", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-detroit-pistons-get-the-si", "pool": {"NO": 1803.0886667336817, "YES": 354.9344548140539}, "probability": 0.9393758027767216, "p": 0.7530969545846353, "totalLiquidity": 555, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1409.408008097537, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703644732889, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "resolverId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222937397, "lastBetTime": 1703644685851, "lastCommentTime": 1703644035224, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, the Pistons are tied with the 2010-11 Cavaliers and 2013-14 76ers at 26 straight losses within the same season (the 2014-15 and 2015-16 76ers have the longest multiple-season losing streak at 28). Will the Pistons lose for the 27th time to take the crown for a single season?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Pistons lose", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Pistons win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets cancelled or rescheduled, resulting in another game being played for this honor", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401585034", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401585034", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/RJPerez%2F28795bdfca82.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "nba", "detroit"], "textDescription": "Currently, the Pistons are tied with the 2010-11 Cavaliers and 2013-14 76ers at 26 straight losses within the same season (the 2014-15 and 2015-16 76ers have the longest multiple-season losing streak at 28). Will the Pistons lose for the 27th time to take the crown for a single season?\n\nYes - Pistons lose\n\nNo - Pistons win\n\nN/A - Game gets cancelled or rescheduled, resulting in another game being played for this honor\n\nhttps://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401585034"}, {"id": "MntpbKvSxuhopaRpzmrZ", "creatorId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "creatorUsername": "mattyb", "creatorName": "Matty B", "createdTime": 1714310249652, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmattyb%2Feq8TCTaQW_.jpeg?alt=media&token=b8632c4a-5f41-4148-a6aa-3b42c0d89c03", "closeTime": 1715410740000, "question": "Will The Fall Guy have a higher RottenTomatoes Critics score than Challengers?", "slug": "will-the-fall-guy-have-a-higher-rot", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-the-fall-guy-have-a-higher-rot", "pool": {"NO": 52.52343753508984, "YES": 4080.2759078986423}, "probability": 0.010000000000000023, "p": 0.4396803448440936, "totalLiquidity": 360, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5418.629555685674, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715448421672, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715410740000, "lastBetTime": 1715387382578, "lastCommentTime": 1715448018858, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which romance film will critics prefer in aggregate: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Fall Guy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_fall_guy_2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " [YES] or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Challengers", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " [NO]?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if The Fall Guy has a strictly higher score than Challengers, Resolves NO if Challengers has an equal, or higher, score to Gosling\u2019s action flick. This will be assessed one week following the release date of the latter film, The Fall Guy", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["television-film", "movies", "entertainment", "film-battles", "rotten-tomatoes"], "textDescription": "Which romance film will critics prefer in aggregate: The Fall Guy [YES] or Challengers [NO]?\n\nResolves YES if The Fall Guy has a strictly higher score than Challengers, Resolves NO if Challengers has an equal, or higher, score to Gosling\u2019s action flick. This will be assessed one week following the release date of the latter film, The Fall Guy"}, {"id": "36itqJr1q66REZutCEbF", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1716305789700, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1717128271965, "question": "Will this Bird Monument sell for >600,000EUR at its upcoming Sotheby's auction? (pic included)", "slug": "will-this-bird-monument-sell-for-60", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-this-bird-monument-sell-for-60", "pool": {"NO": 121.75572740296593, "YES": 12281.25443555255}, "probability": 0.009999999999999986, "p": 0.504673037906232, "totalLiquidity": 1250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14807.169403963477, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1717128271965, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717128295123, "lastBetTime": 1717128108418, "lastCommentTime": 1717128293850, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Sotheby's auction house in Paris is about to auction off a large Bird Monument. Link:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne. Monument \u00e0 l'oiseau", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2024/important-design-2/monument-a-loiseau?locale=en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sotheby's gave it an estimated value of 600,000 - 800,000 EUR. This market resolves YES if the final sale price listed on the Sotheby's website is >600,000EUR. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution details: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example from a past auction: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "This painting by Vig\u00e9e Le Brun sold for 3,085,000 USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2024/a-scholar-collects/self-portrait-in-traveling-costume?locale=en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". This is the number I will use. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "This is the equivalent number I will use.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that this final listed sale price typically includes the buyer's premium.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the lot is withdrawn before the auction, or it fails to sell for any reason (e.g. no bid meets the minimum reserve price), this market resolves NO. It ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "only", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " resolves YES with a listed sale price from this auction of >600,000 EUR.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FmmslMxyTY-.png?alt=media&token=4fd18046-8aa4-4e14-aec8-0d99badc51b3", "title": null}}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 1978, Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne created the monumental sculpture Noah's Dove, a dove holding an olive branch in its beak, a symbol of freedom, perched on a stone obelisk, for the Lavinia Garden in Jerusalem, Israel.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Bird Monument we present here, created in 1984, follows in the footsteps of the Jerusalem monument. The majestic dove with its wings spread is ready to take to the skies to guide freedom.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Perched over three meters high on the Burgundy stone obelisk, it turns with the wind. Its stylized lines and delicate curves are emblematic of Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne's style.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This work is one of the rare examples of Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne's monumental work.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "For more auctions, check out the ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/animated-oscars-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix/bc3d856ae822.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["science-default", "arts", "economics-default", "entertainment", "culture-default"], "textDescription": "The Sotheby's auction house in Paris is about to auction off a large Bird Monument. Link:\n\nFran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne. Monument \u00e0 l'oiseau\n\nSotheby's gave it an estimated value of 600,000 - 800,000 EUR. This market resolves YES if the final sale price listed on the Sotheby's website is >600,000EUR. \n\nResolution details: \n\nExample from a past auction: This painting by Vig\u00e9e Le Brun sold for 3,085,000 USD. This is the number I will use. This is the equivalent number I will use.\n\nNote that this final listed sale price typically includes the buyer's premium.\n\nIf the lot is withdrawn before the auction, or it fails to sell for any reason (e.g. no bid meets the minimum reserve price), this market resolves NO. It only resolves YES with a listed sale price from this auction of >600,000 EUR.\n\nDetails\n\n[image]In 1978, Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne created the monumental sculpture Noah's Dove, a dove holding an olive branch in its beak, a symbol of freedom, perched on a stone obelisk, for the Lavinia Garden in Jerusalem, Israel.\n\nThe Bird Monument we present here, created in 1984, follows in the footsteps of the Jerusalem monument. The majestic dove with its wings spread is ready to take to the skies to guide freedom.\n\nPerched over three meters high on the Burgundy stone obelisk, it turns with the wind. Its stylized lines and delicate curves are emblematic of Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne's style.\n\nThis work is one of the rare examples of Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne's monumental work.\n\nFor more auctions, check out the dashboard."}, {"id": "UQZuwQlWJUomydQLiFbH", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702935266705, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703113200000, "question": "Will XLM close higher on December 20 than it closed on December 19?", "slug": "will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-2-6fe0ed74af10", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-2-6fe0ed74af10", "pool": {"NO": 702.9607681079195, "YES": 131.75989837600073}, "probability": 0.9381001639299418, "p": 0.7396248123892515, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 956.273254443734, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703223248122, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703223240773, "lastBetTime": 1703111958777, "lastCommentTime": 1703223240038, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $0.1194", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2Fc987515b02f9.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "crypto-prices", "hawsbollah", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $0.1194\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "nxe4Rtho7aF2nB4tlgVG", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1706926410101, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714535996395, "question": "Will any of the videos uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Apr 2024 surpass 170M views?", "slug": "will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-c13ec5a46728", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-c13ec5a46728", "pool": {"NO": 121.1976785059577, "YES": 2787.880827420723}, "probability": 0.01009615892354711, "p": 0.19002639851059488, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2555.0097615456752, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714609893116, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714535996395, "lastBetTime": 1714301285740, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution base on the video view counts on Mr Beast's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast/videos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast/videos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Apr 2024 received over 170M views at the end of the month ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "(Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "*Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2Ffa8907939138.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["mr-beast"], "textDescription": "Resolution base on the video view counts on Mr Beast's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH \nhttps://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast/videos\nResolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Apr 2024 received over 170M views at the end of the month \n(Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that) \n*Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month \n"}, {"id": "yLhfjWY9DXbNwfds7QvG", "creatorId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "creatorUsername": "HenriThunberg", "creatorName": "Henri Thunberg", "createdTime": 1713217709529, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHenriThunberg%2FC4rMRuElGd.jpeg?alt=media&token=c119866f-2a78-4b4d-8fa3-77eaaa8c1e8b", "closeTime": 1715219343481, "question": "Will Reka be top 10 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard any time in 2024?", "slug": "will-reka-ever-be-top-10-on-the-cha", "url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-reka-ever-be-top-10-on-the-cha", "pool": {"NO": 3420.8608430118857, "YES": 47.90997006425914}, "probability": 0.9871386250506936, "p": 0.518056636680273, "totalLiquidity": 380, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3533.277452441523, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715219343481, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715219343481, "lastBetTime": 1715219337485, "lastCommentTime": 1715215358244, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reka ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "introduced a new multimodal language model", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reka.ai/news/reka-core-our-frontier-class-multimodal-language-model", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " today on April 15th, with self-stated competitive capabilities.  ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1779894622334189592"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will count top 10 by ELO and position on the board, not the numbers attached to rankings in case of ties.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves early YES if they're listed top 10, and NO at EOY if they're not.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["chatbot-arena-leaderboard", "llms", "reka-ai", "ai"], "textDescription": "Reka introduced a new multimodal language model today on April 15th, with self-stated competitive capabilities.  \n\n[tweet]I will count top 10 by ELO and position on the board, not the numbers attached to rankings in case of ties.\n\nResolves early YES if they're listed top 10, and NO at EOY if they're not."}, {"id": "vqRECfBOCwbgHSgH3F3K", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1710994544459, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1716674007785, "question": "Will winner of the Palm Dog at the Cannes Film Festival also win the Palme d'Or, Grand Prix, OR Cam\u00e9ra d'Or?", "slug": "will-winner-of-the-palm-dog-at-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-winner-of-the-palm-dog-at-the", "pool": {"NO": 14.942392820832197, "YES": 1425.500596471149}, "probability": 0.009999999999999948, "p": 0.49074009581468964, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1329.3656255841788, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1716674007785, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716674007785, "lastBetTime": 1716674000557, "lastCommentTime": 1716673996720, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Cannes Film Festival", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannes_Film_Festival", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the most prestigious in the world, with several famous awards at stake, including: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Palme d'Or", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palme_d%27Or", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": Best film (the festival's highest honor).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Grand Prix", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Prix_(Cannes_Film_Festival)", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": Second place.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cam\u00e9ra d'Or", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cam%C3%A9ra_d%27Or", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": Best debut feature", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Film critics also award an even higher honor, the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "PALM DOG", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palm_Dog_Award", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", for the film with the best ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "canine performance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the festival.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if the film that wins the 2024 Palm dog ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "also", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " wins any of the Palme d'Or, Grand Prix, or Cam\u00e9ra d'Or. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Cannes_Film_Festival", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", \"Anatomy of a Fall\" won the Palm Dog (for the performance of Messi), and it also won the Palme d'Or, so this would have resolved YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Cannes_Film_Festival", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", \"War Pony\" won the Palm Dog, and it also won the Cam\u00e9ra d'Or, so this would have resolved YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2021", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Cannes_Film_Festival", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", \"The Souvenir Part II\" won the Palm Dog, and it did not win any of the three awards, so this would have resolved NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "animal-welfare", "culture-default", "entertainment", "movies"], "textDescription": "The Cannes Film Festival is the most prestigious in the world, with several famous awards at stake, including: \n\nPalme d'Or: Best film (the festival's highest honor).\n\nGrand Prix: Second place.\n\nCam\u00e9ra d'Or: Best debut feature\n\nFilm critics also award an even higher honor, the PALM DOG, for the film with the best canine performance at the festival.\n\nThis market resolves YES if the film that wins the 2024 Palm dog also wins any of the Palme d'Or, Grand Prix, or Cam\u00e9ra d'Or. \n\nExamples:\n\nIn 2023, \"Anatomy of a Fall\" won the Palm Dog (for the performance of Messi), and it also won the Palme d'Or, so this would have resolved YES.\n\nIn 2022, \"War Pony\" won the Palm Dog, and it also won the Cam\u00e9ra d'Or, so this would have resolved YES.\n\nIn 2021, \"The Souvenir Part II\" won the Palm Dog, and it did not win any of the three awards, so this would have resolved NO. \n\n"}, {"id": "uGYy3jdI0NtJ90SeBqH5", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1714455599637, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1714531467525, "question": "Will Student Protestors Of Columbia University Have Control Of Hamilton Hall Still After 24 Hours Per Media Reports?", "slug": "will-student-protestors-of-columbia", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-student-protestors-of-columbia", "pool": {"NO": 54.331479933899836, "YES": 2656.5596270196634}, "probability": 0.013222852021086223, "p": 0.39584351206518115, "totalLiquidity": 480, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3855.3426109061597, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714531467525, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714531467525, "lastBetTime": 1714529645311, "lastCommentTime": 1714528612742, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Student Protestors Of Columbia University Have Control Of Hamilton Hall Still After 24 Hours Per Media Reports?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves To What The Status Of The Building Is Per Social Media And/Or News Reports At 1am ET May 1st 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Status = Occupied by Student Protesters = YES", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Status = No Longer Occupied by Student Protestors = NO", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Status = Mixed Reporting = 50% Resolution", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1785171296403259586"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Longer Market: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-student-protestors-of-columbia-7bcaa0278b21", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I Do Not Participate In My Own Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "protest-477e21b09291", "israel", "palestine"], "textDescription": "Will Student Protestors Of Columbia University Have Control Of Hamilton Hall Still After 24 Hours Per Media Reports?\n\nResolves To What The Status Of The Building Is Per Social Media And/Or News Reports At 1am ET May 1st 2024.\n\nStatus = Occupied by Student Protesters = YES\nStatus = No Longer Occupied by Student Protestors = NO\nStatus = Mixed Reporting = 50% Resolution\n\n[tweet]\nLonger Market: \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-student-protestors-of-columbia-7bcaa0278b21)I Do Not Participate In My Own Markets"}, {"id": "rwb8spHLhFTFd9GtmEza", "creatorId": "yv3waCUZ4GWBrDznjtSkIF7QL1k2", "creatorUsername": "Balasar", "creatorName": "Balasar", "createdTime": 1716597066618, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBalasar%2FuZMYM18qZz.png?alt=media&token=ecd69cd7-3892-4b90-8591-884055b52182", "closeTime": 1717109752668, "question": "Will the US remove its restrictions on allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to target inside Russia by July 1st?", "slug": "will-the-us-remove-its-restrictions", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Balasar/will-the-us-remove-its-restrictions", "pool": {"NO": 4950.940510578331, "YES": 201.9818250418025}, "probability": 0.9608024705426704, "p": 0.500000000000001, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9456.231621558924, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717109752668, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "resolverId": "yv3waCUZ4GWBrDznjtSkIF7QL1k2", "uniqueBettorCount": 32, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717196569332, "lastBetTime": 1717104367624, "lastCommentTime": 1717196568144, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Given the sensitivity of making this policy change explicit, the question will resolve YES if it is \"de facto\" the case that US weapons are being used to target Russian facilities inside of Russia, and US officials aren't particularly upset about it. Resolves NO if this isn't happening by the deadline, or if there is not strong evidence of such a policy change. Resolves YES immediately if the policy change is made explicit (e.g. Biden/Blinken saying something to this effect). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Balasar/b53a98239f02.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["wars", "ukrainerussia-war", "russia"], "textDescription": "Given the sensitivity of making this policy change explicit, the question will resolve YES if it is \"de facto\" the case that US weapons are being used to target Russian facilities inside of Russia, and US officials aren't particularly upset about it. Resolves NO if this isn't happening by the deadline, or if there is not strong evidence of such a policy change. Resolves YES immediately if the policy change is made explicit (e.g. Biden/Blinken saying something to this effect). "}, {"id": "6W0arY2IrcZSB3gKA9DA", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703678608357, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703881500000, "question": "Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2023-12-29 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-15844719a644", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-15844719a644", "pool": {"NO": 66.26675159103678, "YES": 102.00000000000001}, "probability": 0.08130999915498023, "p": 0.11989812782260989, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 32, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703955963436, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703955963710, "lastBetTime": 1703878872456, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-29 20:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-29 - 22:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 06:45", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2023&month=12&date=29", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2023&month=12&date=29", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af333", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F95928a369d43.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-29 20:25 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-29 - 22:25 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 06:45\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "h1BCPj0hgxbQm88WDcNz", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702995400222, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703012400000, "question": "[Daily] Will MSFT close higher on December 19 than it closed on December 18?", "slug": "daily-will-msft-close-higher-on-dec", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/daily-will-msft-close-higher-on-dec", "pool": {"NO": 197.38480204671168, "YES": 351.92634556438236}, "probability": 0.24501252843460178, "p": 0.36653167977713275, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 283.8320684417215, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703020299352, "resolutionProbability": 0.25, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703020283203, "lastBetTime": 1703009296129, "lastCommentTime": 1703020282016, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2Fe258e74cc702.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "economics-default", "stocks", "finance"], "textDescription": "This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "MkBG4G0FfrHs5kLUMhOA", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1709224400133, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1709711940000, "question": "Will Trump lose to Haley in at least 2 states by Super Tuesday?", "slug": "will-trump-lose-to-haley-in-at-leas", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-trump-lose-to-haley-in-at-leas", "pool": {"NO": 206.38835003140002, "YES": 3820.0097629105935}, "probability": 0.006812362373104584, "p": 0.11265218376371969, "totalLiquidity": 340, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5314.272822879033, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709734852162, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709734882965, "lastBetTime": 1709706124580, "lastCommentTime": 1709734882410, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve Yes if Nikki Haley wins or ties Trump in delegates in at least 2 states' Republican primary or caucus held on or before Super Tuesday (March 5).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That is, Nikki Haley needs to win at least as many delegates as Donald Trump, in 2 state races.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Washington DC and territories such as American Samoa are not states and therefore do not count for this question. (Part of the reason for this is the RNC rules do appear to distinguish states and territories.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Motivation for this question: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " says \"There\u2019s a Good Reason Haley\u2019s Still Running\" and \"The answer might be buried deep in the Republican convention rules.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The rules don\u2019t simply give power to a candidate based on the number of delegates they possess. Candidates cannot have their names placed into nomination, and thereby get television airtime at the convention, unless they have a plurality of delegates in at least five states.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That threshold makes a big difference for Haley in terms of her clout \u2014 if any \u2014 at the convention. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Of course, winning at least five states will be hard, owing to her deep weakness with conservative Republicans.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/jack%2F7fcfa8971faa.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["2024-primaries", "nikki-haley", "donald-trump", "2024-republican-primaries", "super-tuesday-122879789bf6"], "textDescription": "Resolve Yes if Nikki Haley wins or ties Trump in delegates in at least 2 states' Republican primary or caucus held on or before Super Tuesday (March 5).\n\nThat is, Nikki Haley needs to win at least as many delegates as Donald Trump, in 2 state races.\n\nWashington DC and territories such as American Samoa are not states and therefore do not count for this question. (Part of the reason for this is the RNC rules do appear to distinguish states and territories.)\n\nMotivation for this question: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746 says \"There\u2019s a Good Reason Haley\u2019s Still Running\" and \"The answer might be buried deep in the Republican convention rules.\"\n\nThe rules don\u2019t simply give power to a candidate based on the number of delegates they possess. Candidates cannot have their names placed into nomination, and thereby get television airtime at the convention, unless they have a plurality of delegates in at least five states.\n\nThat threshold makes a big difference for Haley in terms of her clout \u2014 if any \u2014 at the convention. \n\nOf course, winning at least five states will be hard, owing to her deep weakness with conservative Republicans.\n\n"}, {"id": "jFu9JRQthYdLCzyGLRlW", "creatorId": "taDKLmUlu7flqU5ogkAdP6UMVdE3", "creatorUsername": "Magyk", "creatorName": "Magyk", "createdTime": 1705856483955, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMagyk%2FaW2DLX32cE.jpg?alt=media&token=f9759bdb-2b9a-46ba-ba5b-6d5f49ebe543", "closeTime": 1709065747988, "question": "Will the Israeli municipal elections be delayed again?", "slug": "will-the-israeli-municipal-election", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Magyk/will-the-israeli-municipal-election", "pool": {"NO": 100.17073027949982, "YES": 3738.6986697442026}, "probability": 0.008040879333919126, "p": 0.23227196474520884, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3546.613736363598, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709065747988, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "taDKLmUlu7flqU5ogkAdP6UMVdE3", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709065748488, "lastBetTime": 1709061308294, "lastCommentTime": 1709026653727, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The municipal elections in Israel, which happen every 5 years, were supposed to happen on Tuesday, 2023.10.31, But were delayed because of the war to 2024.01.30, and than delayed again to 2024.02.27.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be another delay?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if there is an official announcement of a delay before 2024.02.27", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves no if the elections happen on the planned date.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Magyk%2Fc931cbe4e5cf.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["israeli-politics", "israeli-domestic-politics", "israel"], "textDescription": "The municipal elections in Israel, which happen every 5 years, were supposed to happen on Tuesday, 2023.10.31, But were delayed because of the war to 2024.01.30, and than delayed again to 2024.02.27.\n\nWill there be another delay?\n\nResolves yes if there is an official announcement of a delay before 2024.02.27\n\nResolves no if the elections happen on the planned date."}, {"id": "pNmorSXdkUSyG4NYq2Oc", "creatorId": "AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2", "creatorUsername": "Nat", "creatorName": "Nat", "createdTime": 1709383872124, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1711607814303, "question": "Will JAXA's SLIM lunar lander survive its second lunar night?", "slug": "will-jaxas-slim-lunar-lander-surviv", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Nat/will-jaxas-slim-lunar-lander-surviv", "pool": {"NO": 113.75469741599069, "YES": 423.6558888018626}, "probability": 0.15043318356092863, "p": 0.397395190677832, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 251.58546895343287, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711607814303, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "resolverId": "AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711637653190, "lastBetTime": 1711585229214, "lastCommentTime": 1711637652658, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve YES if any signal is received from SLIM after its second lunar night", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if no signal has been received before it enters its third lunar night", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related or relevant markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "8Yqibe8WuIFJNrgSzMkz", "label": "/EstMtz/will-japans-jaxa-slim-moon-lander-m-e3facb4a3793"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Mmef3Hyrrqu2cdA6fsce", "label": "/Nat/will-the-im1-odysseus-lunar-lander"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["moon", "moon-landers", "jaxa", "japan"], "textDescription": "Market will resolve YES if any signal is received from SLIM after its second lunar night\n\nResolves NO if no signal has been received before it enters its third lunar night\n\nRelated or relevant markets:\n\n@/EstMtz/will-japans-jaxa-slim-moon-lander-m-e3facb4a3793 \n\n@/Nat/will-the-im1-odysseus-lunar-lander "}, {"id": "1Jgz0kIBXIIHq7sp1TEq", "creatorId": "BrBG7QaUHeMrx3ZXPqy5AxfeFTw2", "creatorUsername": "SethWalder", "creatorName": "Seth Walder", "createdTime": 1709663910744, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqPUcbeawwO7EXS3I33snr4hxsxdLjhNYrwhFFP=s96-c", "closeTime": 1711779529509, "question": "(Free Agency 2024) Will Josh Jacobs receive more fully guaranteed money at signing than Saquon Barkley?", "slug": "free-agency-2024-will-josh-jacobs-r", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SethWalder/free-agency-2024-will-josh-jacobs-r", "pool": {"NO": 77.6791111902452, "YES": 1142.5848800078782}, "probability": 0.03874165590028664, "p": 0.3721823655920675, "totalLiquidity": 240, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 928.1705772982042, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711779529509, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "BrBG7QaUHeMrx3ZXPqy5AxfeFTw2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711779529509, "lastBetTime": 1710297681465, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will use ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://overthecap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://overthecap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " as source for settling this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that fully guaranteed money is different than what is often referred to as simply \"guaranteed\" money (which may include guarantees for injury only, etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is about total fully guaranteed money (not per year) and is in relation to the next contract each player signs in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "nfl", "football"], "textDescription": "Will use https://overthecap.com/ as source for settling this question.\n\nNote that fully guaranteed money is different than what is often referred to as simply \"guaranteed\" money (which may include guarantees for injury only, etc.\n\nThis question is about total fully guaranteed money (not per year) and is in relation to the next contract each player signs in 2024."}, {"id": "8HhQtnQlBAoaxBs1mCXL", "creatorId": "DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2", "creatorUsername": "TonyPepperoni", "creatorName": "TonyPepperoni \ud83e\udd86", "createdTime": 1713119383654, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTonyPepperoni%2FuHF336sHY7.jpeg?alt=media&token=5ab3fad2-7bf9-40b3-9884-fdf2cfdcaefb", "closeTime": 1716248278112, "question": "Will Manifold change the weekly market creation bonus before June?", "slug": "will-manifold-change-the-weekly-mar", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TonyPepperoni/will-manifold-change-the-weekly-mar", "pool": {"NO": 1397.1130114898187, "YES": 14.98041041251804}, "probability": 0.9896957440640152, "p": 0.5073546400962671, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1313.9441867648263, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716248278112, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716248278112, "lastBetTime": 1716244690675, "lastCommentTime": 1716244724451, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold is planning to make a lot of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "tweaks to the mana economy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10?pvs=4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", many of which reduce the amount of mana they are printing. Will they alter the weekly market creation bonus in some way?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently the system works by paying out 50 mana for the first market a user makes in the week.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e"], "textDescription": "Manifold is planning to make a lot of tweaks to the mana economy, many of which reduce the amount of mana they are printing. Will they alter the weekly market creation bonus in some way?\n\nCurrently the system works by paying out 50 mana for the first market a user makes in the week."}, {"id": "rNnoGcEmP2uM5yR93Fyf", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702392094762, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1702508400000, "question": "Will DOT close higher on December 13 than it closed on December 12?", "slug": "will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-5c1c1474dac0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-5c1c1474dac0", "pool": {"NO": 1671.0988503936153, "YES": 57.14734305127761}, "probability": 0.997168820556526, "p": 0.9233403850033612, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3307.460207835893, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702518128328, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702518123740, "lastBetTime": 1702508362469, "lastCommentTime": 1702518118021, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "7.09", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "crypto-prices", "economics-default", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $7.09\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "AyTVDEDywAaWd7a9izKy", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703081496606, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1704150000000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on January 1 than it closed on December 31?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-january-1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-january-1", "pool": {"NO": 946.9616243218214, "YES": 104.61231313671466}, "probability": 0.9526704778881095, "p": 0.6897899571364441, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1060.1917850461243, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704155073542, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704155073723, "lastBetTime": 1704148951014, "lastCommentTime": 1704155067758, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F3ca66078db7a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "8DHpN28buuz71UW6YVmi", "creatorId": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "creatorUsername": "Gen", "creatorName": "Genzy", "createdTime": 1716486413083, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTodWaddington%2FHiYzxYf-w5.png?alt=media&token=eb5b9c77-b2f2-410e-9bad-76d96081176f", "closeTime": 1716505591276, "question": "Will the Polymarket Ethereum ETF by May31 market resolve YES based on solely a 19b-4 SEC approval?", "slug": "will-the-polymarket-ethereum-etf-by", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-the-polymarket-ethereum-etf-by", "pool": {"NO": 72881.45485977057, "YES": 33106.463100696405}, "probability": 0.6637245033305592, "p": 0.4727347514570609, "totalLiquidity": 51000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 129318.09412450733, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716512001730, "resolutionProbability": 0.66, "resolverId": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716513133007, "lastBetTime": 1716503260469, "lastCommentTime": 1716513131286, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Polymarket | Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31?tid=1716486148909", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1793627909950763103"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if that market resolves YES and the ETH ETF has only the 19b-4 SEC approval and NOT and S-1 SEC approval by May31.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If that market hasn't resolved by May31, this will wait for the resolution -- but any approvals which occur AFTER May31 will be discounted.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Gen/4032db32f7b0.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["polymarket", "crypto-speculation", "ethereum"], "textDescription": "context: Polymarket | Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?\n\n[tweet]This market resolves YES if that market resolves YES and the ETH ETF has only the 19b-4 SEC approval and NOT and S-1 SEC approval by May31.\n\nIf that market hasn't resolved by May31, this will wait for the resolution -- but any approvals which occur AFTER May31 will be discounted."}, {"id": "snHw9tr7dpyOhJkE928Q", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1707681579918, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1708959599950, "question": "Will the highest temperature in NYC in Feb 25, 2024 be higher than the previous day?", "slug": "will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-c81aba547d76", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-c81aba547d76", "pool": {"NO": 64.55319958757559, "YES": 2549.8897913070177}, "probability": 0.0023881566250570168, "p": 0.0863904030209731, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4006.563911107324, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708963767519, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708963767785, "lastBetTime": 1708959008689, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Feb 25, 2024 is higher than the previous day ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F2088e4b82486.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["weather"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Feb 25, 2024 is higher than the previous day \nResolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) \n\nHighest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report \nhttps://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 \n\nNote: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. \n"}, {"id": "uHKJr8OKW9AYnrCWKBaW", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1705288614567, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1705374900000, "question": "Will the Colorado Avalanche beat Montreal Canadiens on Jan 15?", "slug": "will-the-colorado-avalanche-beat-mo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-colorado-avalanche-beat-mo", "pool": {"NO": 28.27730816218223, "YES": 1594.2583269318902}, "probability": 0.005589999111287938, "p": 0.24065968454057923, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2321.9974490416644, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705377323302, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705377323495, "lastBetTime": 1705374355917, "lastCommentTime": 1705377317307, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a NHL Live Action Sports market. You may bet before, during and slightly after the game.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Colorado Avalanche vs Montreal Canadiens @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?q=avalanche+vs+canadiens&client=firefox-b-1-d&sca_esv=598472506&ei=W6OkZYCxGMf-ptQPramT0Ao&ved=0ahUKEwjAyoXttt6DAxVHv4kEHa3UBKoQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=avalanche+vs+canadiens&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiFmF2YWxhbmNoZSB2cyBjYW5hZGllbnMyBBAAGAMyERAAGIAEGIoFGJECGLEDGIMBMgYQABgWGB4yBhAAGBYYHjIGEAAYFhgeMgYQABgWGB4yBhAAGBYYHjIGEAAYFhgeMgYQABgWGB4yBhAAGBYYHkjiBFAfWLwDcAF4AJABAJgBkAGgAY4CqgEDMC4yuAEDyAEA-AEBwgINEAAYgAQYigUYQxiwA8ICBxAAGAMYsAPCAgkQABgIGB4YsAPiAwQYASBBiAYBkAYE&sclient=gws-wiz-serp", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game start at 6:00pm CST.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Colorado Avalanche win. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4d1NtoPnf1.png?alt=media&token=6e3c81f8-f50d-4b18-8258-b684a2970136", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2Fc4c74e352c20.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nhl", "sports-default", "hockey", "montreal-canadiens", "colorado-avalanche"], "textDescription": "This is a NHL Live Action Sports market. You may bet before, during and slightly after the game.\n\nColorado Avalanche vs Montreal Canadiens @6pm CST\n\nGame start at 6:00pm CST.\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Colorado Avalanche win. \n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "S13anqPzBK1mIp5HRRyr", "creatorId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "creatorUsername": "Eliza", "creatorName": "Eliza", "createdTime": 1708710232454, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714579550967, "question": "Will Mathieu van der Poel race any extra races* before 1 May 2024?", "slug": "will-mathieu-van-der-poel-race-any", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-mathieu-van-der-poel-race-any", "pool": {"NO": 26.201673145731093, "YES": 1157.5597584319974}, "probability": 0.010000000000000005, "p": 0.30855708946429855, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1108.3745109443307, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714579550967, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714579550967, "lastBetTime": 1714579306881, "lastCommentTime": 1711339522726, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He announced a program of seven races:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MSR", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "E3", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gent-Wevelgem", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RVV", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Paris-Roubaix", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Amstel", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LBL", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves Yes if he takes the start of any additional races, not on that list. The race must be a UCI road race of .1 or higher classification.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Eliza%2F98b432b48bd7.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "peloton-discord", "road-bicycle-racing"], "textDescription": "He announced a program of seven races:\n\nMSR\nE3\n\nGent-Wevelgem\n\nRVV\n\nParis-Roubaix\n\nAmstel\n\nLBL\n\nThis question resolves Yes if he takes the start of any additional races, not on that list. The race must be a UCI road race of .1 or higher classification."}, {"id": "JQ2ZyYFd1km7CsNKJGcv", "creatorId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "creatorUsername": "SemioticRivalry", "creatorName": "Semiotic Rivalry", "createdTime": 1709751941714, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSemioticRivalry%2Fpl2tzfEHMX.jpg?alt=media&token=1b7174ae-5d56-4d97-9b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf", "closeTime": 1717251236663, "question": "Will thousands of Rooster Teeth videos be deleted by June 1st?", "slug": "will-thousands-of-rooster-teeth-vid", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-thousands-of-rooster-teeth-vid", "pool": {"NO": 64.43791299266553, "YES": 548.216368395108}, "probability": 0.09752172505611376, "p": 0.4789869909244228, "totalLiquidity": 180, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 388.5604809339602, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1717251236663, "resolutionProbability": 0.1, "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717251236663, "lastBetTime": 1717206164196, "lastCommentTime": 1717206184229, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deadline.com/2024/03/rooster-teeth-shut-down-warner-bros-discovery-roost-podcast-continue-1235847264/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deadline.com/2024/03/rooster-teeth-shut-down-warner-bros-discovery-roost-podcast-continue-1235847264/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["youtube"], "textDescription": "https://deadline.com/2024/03/rooster-teeth-shut-down-warner-bros-discovery-roost-podcast-continue-1235847264/"}, {"id": "RHiOkz0298eGB0jiEQDP", "creatorId": "SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2", "creatorUsername": "Quadrifold", "creatorName": "Quadrifold", "createdTime": 1705042201146, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FQuadrifold%2FcTzrvxzVzh.jpg?alt=media&token=9e568961-afd2-4374-9188-ddf20d36d83e", "closeTime": 1706278727862, "question": "Will the majority of judges at the ICJ vote in favour of South Africa's case against Israel?", "slug": "will-the-majority-of-judges-at-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Quadrifold/will-the-majority-of-judges-at-the", "pool": {"NO": 6124.877133690587, "YES": 235.37213512540075}, "probability": 0.9714344446896728, "p": 0.5665099978331842, "totalLiquidity": 990, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 24006.426970481123, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706278727862, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "resolverId": "SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2", "uniqueBettorCount": 57, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710448641034, "lastBetTime": 1706278706594, "lastCommentTime": 1708541623384, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "8 or more", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " judges vote in favour = resolves YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*Abstension votes count as a vote against", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "15 judges", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the International Court of Justice:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FaMAn-ZBmzg.webp?alt=media&token=b54e3d91-7a65-4912-8e0f-4906839afb3d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "More details here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/a-quick-guide-to-south-africas-icj-case-against-israel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/a-quick-guide-to-south-africas-icj-case-against-israel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "****It seems that the judges might be 17, as they'll have an additional one for each South Africa and Israel. In that case the majority of votes would need to be 9 out of 17. Nothing change re the title of the market btw.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Quadrifold%2F7462d9ab6c8d.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel", "wars", "geopolitics", "international-affairs", "middle-east", "information-war", "south-africa", "brics", "icj"], "textDescription": "8 or more judges vote in favour = resolves YES\n\n*Abstension votes count as a vote against\n\nAll the 15 judges at the International Court of Justice:\n\n[image]More details here:\n\nhttps://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/a-quick-guide-to-south-africas-icj-case-against-israel\n\n****It seems that the judges might be 17, as they'll have an additional one for each South Africa and Israel. In that case the majority of votes would need to be 9 out of 17. Nothing change re the title of the market btw."}, {"id": "o382cAQJ2XryLmBB7hPM", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704623997141, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704882000000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-01-10 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-e1b15b0525af", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-e1b15b0525af", "pool": {"NO": 66.22651324711273, "YES": 119.99999999999997}, "probability": 0.04972946434505029, "p": 0.08661074449618103, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 50, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704920396819, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704920397116, "lastBetTime": 1704871079869, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-10 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-10 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=01&date=10", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=01&date=10", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fc0b8f2a2f280.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-10 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-10 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "VOc1DwiCzV7FatpN34O7", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705398603154, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1705467000000, "question": "Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2024-01-17 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-31110d8f5672", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-31110d8f5672", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.13559322033898305, "p": 0.13559322033898305, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705519344518, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705519344794, "lastBetTime": 1705398610697, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-17 04:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-17 - 06:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=17", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=17", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lo331", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fdbb9d6eace6a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-17 04:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-17 - 06:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:10\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "HXKgv8PqxtaCJjj8vpz7", "creatorId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "creatorUsername": "OllieG", "creatorName": "Ollie G", "createdTime": 1704230455742, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdz4Yj3np666O_tJ0KIuoQIaeWb8QVEZmqKi9uN0kvKDak=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709279940000, "question": "Will Crown Prince Frederik be publicly heckled with personal criticism before March 2024?", "slug": "will-crown-prince-frederik-be-publi-547ffcb549f5", "url": "https://manifold.markets/OllieG/will-crown-prince-frederik-be-publi-547ffcb549f5", "pool": {"NO": 109.97000097683215, "YES": 733.1243624515661}, "probability": 0.08497077144689424, "p": 0.38236053214436966, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 800.7773031995122, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709321684578, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709321684872, "lastBetTime": 1709257411439, "lastCommentTime": 1704230578940, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Margrethe, the longest-serving monarch in Europe, announced during her New Year\u2019s speech that she would abdicate her throne in January. Her eldest son, Crown Prince Frederik, will succeed her.\" (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "source)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/31/world/europe/denmark-queen-margrethe.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Kk0.b3Ku.43vMh42mdsCH&smid=url-share", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a protester verbally confronts or heckles Frederik with criticism about his character, personal behavior, or past conduct", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "and the brush is", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "face-to-face with Frederik", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "and", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "the incident is reported on by at least one credible news organization or journalist", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "anytime between January 2nd and February 29th", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything that would NOT count:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An organized protest where Frederik is not present", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any non-verbal signage presented to Frederik", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Frederik is confronted with anti-monarchist language (i.e. opposition to the monarchy system in general), rather than criticism specific to him", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An incident that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "isn't ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "covered by a news organization or journalist; i.e. if we only know about it through a  social media post (unless the social media post is by a journalist, in which case I would resolve YES)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I might bet on this one", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/OllieG%2F93b04fab76cd.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["queensland", "queen", "entertainment", "politics-default", "europe", "denmark", "popular-culture", "royalty", "danish-politics"], "textDescription": "\"Margrethe, the longest-serving monarch in Europe, announced during her New Year\u2019s speech that she would abdicate her throne in January. Her eldest son, Crown Prince Frederik, will succeed her.\" (source)\n\nResolves YES if:\n\na protester verbally confronts or heckles Frederik with criticism about his character, personal behavior, or past conduct\n\nand the brush is face-to-face with Frederik\n\nand the incident is reported on by at least one credible news organization or journalist\n\nanytime between January 2nd and February 29th\n\nAnything that would NOT count:\n\nAn organized protest where Frederik is not present\n\nAny non-verbal signage presented to Frederik\n\nFrederik is confronted with anti-monarchist language (i.e. opposition to the monarchy system in general), rather than criticism specific to him\n\nAn incident that isn't covered by a news organization or journalist; i.e. if we only know about it through a  social media post (unless the social media post is by a journalist, in which case I would resolve YES)\n\nI might bet on this one"}, {"id": "PTyA2MF5q6TgeoCrVv0i", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1708646809054, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1711427774434, "question": "Will \"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire\" (\ud83d\udc7b) gross >$35M on its opening weekend?", "slug": "will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202", "pool": {"NO": 19227.829201258544, "YES": 34.488692382508816}, "probability": 0.9993123960704661, "p": 0.7227467020211581, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 20143.68863312456, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711427774434, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711427958785, "lastBetTime": 1711427767460, "lastCommentTime": 1711427958255, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if \"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire\" (2024) grosses more than $35,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21235248/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21235248/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be used to resolve this market. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Ghostbusters: Afterlife\" (2021)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt4513678/?ref_=bo_se_r_1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " would have been $44,008,406.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, AFAIK, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "typically", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " that \"Domestic Opening\" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution\u2014I will use their \"Domestic Opening\", however they calculate it.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire\" is the sequel to \"Ghostbusters: Afterlife\", and is the fifth film in the Ghostbusters franchise (see: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "label": "mattyb"}}, {"text": " 's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-be", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " on whether it'll be the lowest WW grossing in the franchise). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix%2F02b00b7fcb82.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["culture-default", "hollywood", "television-film", "boxoffice", "entertainment", "movies", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to YES if \"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire\" (2024) grosses more than $35,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.\n\nSource: The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21235248/ will be used to resolve this market. \n\nI will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for \"Ghostbusters: Afterlife\" (2021) would have been $44,008,406.\n\nFor context, AFAIK, typically that \"Domestic Opening\" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution\u2014I will use their \"Domestic Opening\", however they calculate it.\n\n\"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire\" is the sequel to \"Ghostbusters: Afterlife\", and is the fifth film in the Ghostbusters franchise (see: @mattyb 's market on whether it'll be the lowest WW grossing in the franchise). \n\n"}, {"id": "G56iydYYkREPcSEluqDg", "creatorId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "creatorUsername": "Agh", "creatorName": "Agh", "createdTime": 1707863153084, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAghgg2%2FIjSFdFdbHO.jpg?alt=media&token=7fcbf9aa-3d8e-4b3a-896a-92c3aadf6a66", "closeTime": 1708370468335, "question": "Will Vaush make a \"big response video\" to the h3h3 attacks within the next 44 days?", "slug": "will-vaush-make-a-big-response-vide", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Agh/will-vaush-make-a-big-response-vide", "pool": {"NO": 543.1745185268587, "YES": 259.561613795577}, "probability": 0.8223725611978971, "p": 0.6887042814627687, "totalLiquidity": 340.25, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 521.8868454717233, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1708370468335, "resolutionProbability": 0.82, "resolverId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708370468911, "lastBetTime": 1708347723896, "lastCommentTime": 1708370450074, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Drama YouTuber h3h3 made multiple videos attacking Vaush for his questionable views and his recently exposed affinity for loli and horse porn. Vaush is now promising a big response video ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1757487231663845824"}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vaush has to upload the video by the end of March 27th. It has to be a dedicated response video where he addresses multiple of his accusations. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's some subjectivity here, if he just uploads a cut of his livestream where he aimlessly rambles for an hour it doesn't count. A recut livestream would only make this market resolve yes, if it is apparent that Vaush put significant effort into the response.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Agh%2F09c463b00bf8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["h3h3", "vaush", "destinygg"], "textDescription": "Background\n\nDrama YouTuber h3h3 made multiple videos attacking Vaush for his questionable views and his recently exposed affinity for loli and horse porn. Vaush is now promising a big response video \n\n[tweet]Resolution Criteria\n\nVaush has to upload the video by the end of March 27th. It has to be a dedicated response video where he addresses multiple of his accusations. \n\nThere's some subjectivity here, if he just uploads a cut of his livestream where he aimlessly rambles for an hour it doesn't count. A recut livestream would only make this market resolve yes, if it is apparent that Vaush put significant effort into the response."}, {"id": "uN6HcSFk4bfpx5W5oRsz", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1707516968616, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1708113600000, "question": "Will Amazon close higher than 174.45 on February 16?", "slug": "will-amazon-close-higher-than-17445", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-amazon-close-higher-than-17445", "pool": {"NO": 55.92773273969186, "YES": 555.3870967741937}, "probability": 0.04189930983759315, "p": 0.3027833734782172, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 447, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708122298264, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708122298599, "lastBetTime": 1708113173818, "lastCommentTime": 1708122277644, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Amazon.com Inc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Close Price ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Amazon+Stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Investing Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investing.com/equities/amazon-com-inc-historical-data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AMZN closes at 4pm EST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " 3pm EST on Feb 16", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes higher than stated price.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock closes lower.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "50% ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes flat.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2Fae8428e00cd2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["gaming", "world-default", "keen-stocks", "finance", "technology-default", "stocks", "economics-default", "entertainment", "stocks-league-beta", "politics-default"], "textDescription": "Amazon.com Inc\n\nResolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data\n\nAMZN closes at 4pm EST\n\nThis market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 16\n\nResolves YES if stock closes higher than stated price.\n\nResolves NO if stock closes lower.\n\nResolves 50% if stock closes flat.\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "dIVetm4aiMlObgFAFCf2", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705954217113, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706078700000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-01-24 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-e4dfbad0cc29", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-e4dfbad0cc29", "pool": {"NO": 73.54565608799037, "YES": 54.17186415797207}, "probability": 0.22000000000000006, "p": 0.17201532190851515, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14.51091427714363, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706174767986, "resolutionProbability": 0.22, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706174768221, "lastBetTime": 1706068337578, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-24 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-24 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=24", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=24", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F0b15f3045cfa.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-24 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-24 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "g4Mr5uUf8egdLnCJvCGF", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1710808622602, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1710889200000, "question": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Basic Attention Token Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?", "slug": "-crypto-how-will-basic-attention-to", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/-crypto-how-will-basic-attention-to", "pool": {"NO": 113.64918589131936, "YES": 175.60873566386098}, "probability": 0.3600179056555255, "p": 0.4650211338926848, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 48.67872778248403, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710902691712, "resolutionProbability": 0.36, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710889200000, "lastBetTime": 1710871470558, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Basic Attention Token Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = HIGHER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = LOWER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The markets are open from 8pm - 8pm ET (12am UTC - 12am UTC)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market predictions will close 7pm ET (11pm UTC)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source used is *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Coingecko", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Basic Attention Token BAT/USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/basic-attention-token", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Historical Data displayed at *Coingecko ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/basic-attention-token/historical_data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option resolves independent of the others.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a Cryptocurrency closes \"Flat\" (same close price as prior day) this will resolve 50/50 for their Yes/No options.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-marketdaily", "basic-attention-token", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Basic Attention Token Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?\n\nYES = HIGHER\nNO = LOWER\n\nMarket Information:\n\nThe markets are open from 8pm - 8pm ET (12am UTC - 12am UTC)\n\nThis market predictions will close 7pm ET (11pm UTC)\n\nThe official source used is *Coingecko\n\nBasic Attention Token BAT/USD\n\nResolving:\n\nResolves according to the Historical Data displayed at *Coingecko at the end of the day.\n\nEach option resolves independent of the others.\n\nIf a Cryptocurrency closes \"Flat\" (same close price as prior day) this will resolve 50/50 for their Yes/No options.\n\nDISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n\n\n"}, {"id": "Ljq342L53Ohf3iCVaDUQ", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1708138206115, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714622389950, "question": "Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on May 01, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET", "slug": "will-elon-musk-make-2-or-more-tweet-31c430ddeea9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-elon-musk-make-2-or-more-tweet-31c430ddeea9", "pool": {"NO": 1.9017398596496662, "YES": 515.8545694458559}, "probability": 0.013276775100170717, "p": 0.7849386789348882, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2041.1190466334713, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714660845180, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714622389950, "lastBetTime": 1714619705202, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on May 01, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "!!!Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count!!! ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves NA if I was unable to verify if Elon Musk tweeted 2 or more times during the stated period ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: A quoted post are still counted as a post, as long as it doesn't have a report header.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F8bf0b5343f77.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tweeter"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on May 01, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET \n!!!Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count!!! \nResolves to No otherwise.\n\nResolves NA if I was unable to verify if Elon Musk tweeted 2 or more times during the stated period \n\nhttps://twitter.com/elonmusk\nNote: A quoted post are still counted as a post, as long as it doesn't have a report header."}, {"id": "jaOXe9puQhdzNUwMsJ3y", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704920311433, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1705035000000, "question": "Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2024-01-12 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-1f9e889b07d3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-1f9e889b07d3", "pool": {"NO": 106.67544346759931, "YES": 126.31000134938549}, "probability": 0.13045982090343777, "p": 0.15084985425062758, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 70.03456217732122, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705151095414, "resolutionProbability": 0.13, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705151095642, "lastBetTime": 1704987646257, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-12 04:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-12 - 06:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=12", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=12", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lo331", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F9060a0a18a76.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-12 04:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-12 - 06:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:10\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "USV4YwuWt6YEjUDGNDWe", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704116664044, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704382500000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-01-04 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-7819d2b0f17e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-7819d2b0f17e", "pool": {"NO": 101.03498296181681, "YES": 203.27845945320664}, "probability": 0.05999999999999995, "p": 0.11380753990607531, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 164.272699695767, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704396099831, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704396100114, "lastBetTime": 1704381008143, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-04 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-04 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F5423cb18cb89.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-04 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-04 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "u8gGax0wyEsNiEbWxdG9", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1705462668027, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1712109766688, "question": "Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Connecticut Republican presidential primary?", "slug": "will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-80e177ff9c2d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-80e177ff9c2d", "pool": {"NO": 19448.92399636881, "YES": 44.47818018003818}, "probability": 0.9993442407627772, "p": 0.777042276905563, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 19526.691281978103, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712109766688, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712109766688, "lastBetTime": 1712109762625, "lastCommentTime": 1712109742082, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if the 2024 Connecticut Republican presidential primary was cancaled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F0e6f53f66e4d.jpg", "textDescription": "Resolves N/A if the 2024 Connecticut Republican presidential primary was cancaled"}, {"id": "9LlvqVjrniSYt3gffhG3", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705398633177, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1705561200000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-18 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-a0bc873ef414", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-a0bc873ef414", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.14754098360655737, "p": 0.14754098360655737, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705652654738, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705652654965, "lastBetTime": 1705398640542, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-18 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-18 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=18", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=18", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F088ed6daa289.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-18 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-18 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "yERnY5HzMICAavAsWY6D", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707429173152, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707492900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-09 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-4525ce464654", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-4525ce464654", "pool": {"NO": 126.56960949103339, "YES": 157.27571660217924}, "probability": 0.09549402923633891, "p": 0.11597433389091877, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 86, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707503795889, "resolutionProbability": 0.1, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707503796124, "lastBetTime": 1707492312359, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-09 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-09 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fbf1f49b9d598.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-09 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-09 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "ElwPvj0OA7nigtUtt1DY", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707944135017, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708002000000, "question": "Will flight AF 1781 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-15 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-01c28f4e3a84", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-01c28f4e3a84", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.22727272727272727, "p": 0.22727272727272727, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708032213281, "resolutionProbability": 0.23, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708032213557, "lastBetTime": 1707944145068, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-15 13:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-15 - 15:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a016:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1781", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F84cd61cd0b67.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-15 13:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-15 - 15:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a016:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "4pYt8MbNdFeJF43Nue0t", "creatorId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "creatorUsername": "mattyb", "creatorName": "Matty B", "createdTime": 1707012172179, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmattyb%2Feq8TCTaQW_.jpeg?alt=media&token=b8632c4a-5f41-4148-a6aa-3b42c0d89c03", "closeTime": 1710287003123, "question": "Will Biden lose any delegates in the 2024 Democratic Primary?", "slug": "will-biden-lose-any-delegates-in-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-biden-lose-any-delegates-in-th", "pool": {"NO": 25233.62119613382, "YES": 55.16684873412669}, "probability": 0.9991678153323422, "p": 0.7241324187653438, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 25586.245317748908, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710287003123, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "uniqueBettorCount": 21, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710456540419, "lastBetTime": 1710286986711, "lastCommentTime": 1710286966758, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wikipedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", will Joe Biden lose a single delegate in the primary race?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden loses a single delegate in any primary or caucus, this immediately resolves YES. Otherwise, Resolves NO at the DNC convention when Biden is officially made the nominee.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mattyb%2Ffe9970ef99c7.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "democratic-party", "2024-primaries", "2024-democratic-primaries"], "textDescription": "According to Wikipedia, will Joe Biden lose a single delegate in the primary race?\n\nIf Biden loses a single delegate in any primary or caucus, this immediately resolves YES. Otherwise, Resolves NO at the DNC convention when Biden is officially made the nominee."}, {"id": "wzn2IsUCwqiz8na7xRcj", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703081727578, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703372400000, "question": "Will SOL close higher on December 23 than it closed on December 22?", "slug": "will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-439f05da5581", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-439f05da5581", "pool": {"NO": 671.251146310522, "YES": 49.823788319119465}, "probability": 0.9290286456322875, "p": 0.49280360466685724, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1104.3540960877729, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703379792101, "resolutionProbability": 0.93, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703379788115, "lastBetTime": 1703375029049, "lastCommentTime": 1703379787706, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F9b90ccf449ad.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "hawsbollah", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "eeFg0CuuLoUJ3iu4XFYt", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1707677465243, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1710543064181, "question": "[Metaculus] Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile ac...before the 15th of March?", "slug": "metaculus-will-the-submarine-cables", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-the-submarine-cables", "pool": {"NO": 62.245093611369725, "YES": 4258.206679271419}, "probability": 0.009335126605490164, "p": 0.3919629973126642, "totalLiquidity": 590, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8634.119366333734, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710543064181, "resolverId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "uniqueBettorCount": 32, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710543064933, "lastBetTime": 1710542899817, "lastCommentTime": 1709066831914, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21394/data-infrastructure-in-the-red-sea/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21394/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, before March 15, 2024, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "credible sources", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " report that data cable infrastructure in the Red Sea has suffered damage caused by a hostile actor.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21394/data-infrastructure-in-the-red-sea/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mirrorbot%2Fdf0068b1a5f4.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus"], "textDescription": "Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21394/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, before March 15, 2024, credible sources report that data cable infrastructure in the Red Sea has suffered damage caused by a hostile actor.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues."}, {"id": "AhyTtPvYd2qHBG50ZRDF", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704623926303, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704783600000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-09 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-87bca8e3a7c2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-87bca8e3a7c2", "pool": {"NO": 96.4638951782693, "YES": 62.01378878659592}, "probability": 0.2500000000000002, "p": 0.17647359907056168, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 25.390866047087528, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704822829805, "resolutionProbability": 0.25, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704822830045, "lastBetTime": 1704783393379, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-09 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-09 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fae8b7b9b3f4d.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-09 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-09 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "irbE1Mwr7ZDuqZ7Gm73x", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703883832446, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703979000000, "question": "Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2023-12-31 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-77b7572833a3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-77b7572833a3", "pool": {"NO": 73.6381739318444, "YES": 38.37757868459474}, "probability": 0.17000000000000037, "p": 0.09644906644354935, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704098142152, "resolutionProbability": 0.17, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704098142399, "lastBetTime": 1703929820734, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-30 23:30 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 01:30 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:30 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:30 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:30 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 07:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl224", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F19aeb006646c.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-30 23:30 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 01:30 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:30 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:30 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:30 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 07:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "lvgfXKnfjVXRlQ6JGzny", "creatorId": "rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73", "creatorUsername": "wilsonkime", "creatorName": "Wilson Kime", "createdTime": 1704745866958, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fwilsonkime%2F-5BFN4xL60.png?alt=media&token=9df750be-56e2-4d9a-97e6-3b1946ddd776", "closeTime": 1713037790868, "question": "Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of the petitioners (Sheetz) in Sheetz vs County of El Dorado?", "slug": "will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo-cf1d4cbb4c6f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo-cf1d4cbb4c6f", "pool": {"NO": 807.8279668647656, "YES": 44.70343399405067}, "probability": 0.9796150765358256, "p": 0.7267241672906305, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 777.0038583705867, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1713037790868, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713037790868, "lastBetTime": 1713001999163, "lastCommentTime": 1712954352047, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It can sometimes be hard to define exactly who won in a court case, but if Sheetz we'd expect something like ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the court rules the Nollan/Dolan test applies to building permit fees", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the court rules based on some other test that the fees are unconstitutional ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will close as soon as the decision comes out and resolve hopefully soon after. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/wilsonkime%2F333af75de51e.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["court-cases", "scotus", "supreme-court"], "textDescription": "It can sometimes be hard to define exactly who won in a court case, but if Sheetz we'd expect something like \n\nthe court rules the Nollan/Dolan test applies to building permit fees\n\nthe court rules based on some other test that the fees are unconstitutional \n\nI will close as soon as the decision comes out and resolve hopefully soon after. "}, {"id": "VdgOfFrbMsAl0TSbu1Yd", "creatorId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "creatorUsername": "Fion", "creatorName": "Fion", "createdTime": 1716590276992, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FFion%2Ff0dUbpMbfK.webp?alt=media&token=a5756953-9fb6-4763-9c2e-6bc532e44aed", "closeTime": 1716671458975, "question": "Will somebody create a Manifold UK General Election Projection?", "slug": "will-somebody-create-a-manifold-uk", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-somebody-create-a-manifold-uk", "pool": {"NO": 9949.874371066206, "YES": 100.50378152592111}, "probability": 0.9899999999999999, "p": 0.49999999999999656, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9510.615882561935, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716671458975, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716671846713, "lastBetTime": 1716671435994, "lastCommentTime": 1716671845411, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are markets on Manifold for every constituency in the upcoming UK general election but as far as I know, nobody has written some code to extract the leader in each constituency to create a seat projection. Will somebody do this by market close in one week? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to take this market's liquidity as a sort of bounty if you want to create this. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you add in other features like sensitivity analysis, live updating, or a colour-coded map I will be very impressed and grateful and will maybe put up a NO limit order for you to take as a thank you. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Needs to be freely available to others to resolve YES. If you just tell me you have a private one, that doesn't count. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Fion/6aded1e0d933.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "-uk-general-election-2024", "manifold-6748e065087e"], "textDescription": "There are markets on Manifold for every constituency in the upcoming UK general election but as far as I know, nobody has written some code to extract the leader in each constituency to create a seat projection. Will somebody do this by market close in one week? \n\nFeel free to take this market's liquidity as a sort of bounty if you want to create this. \n\nIf you add in other features like sensitivity analysis, live updating, or a colour-coded map I will be very impressed and grateful and will maybe put up a NO limit order for you to take as a thank you. \n\nNeeds to be freely available to others to resolve YES. If you just tell me you have a private one, that doesn't count. "}, {"id": "HDy6kS7g7kT7nkUojmtH", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1703086444229, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703464010657, "question": "Will the Miami Dolphins beat the Dallas Cowboys in their Week 16 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-miami-dolphins-beat-the-da", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-miami-dolphins-beat-the-da", "pool": {"NO": 2144.903638641809, "YES": 47.72818599976506}, "probability": 0.9883126962889468, "p": 0.652980945959456, "totalLiquidity": 247.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4355.556374560955, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703464019454, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703464007188, "lastBetTime": 1703464007048, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Dolphins win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Cowboys win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/RJPerez%2F63dae6e3fc65.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["dallas-cowboys", "football", "miami-dolphins", "nfl", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "Yes - Dolphins win\n\nNo - Cowboys win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "wYhyVMSQbhrm0sJOaexO", "creatorId": "GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1", "creatorUsername": "RemNi", "creatorName": "RemNi", "createdTime": 1713051039711, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FRemNiFHfMN%2FJIn_KY_3MP.gif?alt=media&token=471c991f-4539-46e9-aad4-a4c719e99ff1", "closeTime": 1714551205459, "question": "Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before May 2024?", "slug": "will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777", "pool": {"NO": 643.9975991621301, "YES": 3685.2360020555725}, "probability": 0.011147133374543518, "p": 0.060598755953114876, "totalLiquidity": 780, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10864.068645180041, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714551205459, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1", "uniqueBettorCount": 31, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714551205459, "lastBetTime": 1714059162557, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if Iran has detonated a nuclear device by May 1st 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Questions with the same criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "wYhyVMSQbhrm0sJOaexO", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "sOt10oViKCGsTNPdaOY7", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "HyilfuCmfROgmaOITLmE", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-54454f6bc6fa"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Q7VlK5xDSFC7T3UImjvo", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4e38fffdb730"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "7h24smrseOe6bf8M6GgC", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9de92c362204"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mNvS2QczNn0VCkB7rh65", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "DaV0m6SVc1mkaeZhHjNX", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FtwekHVy_vP.png?alt=media&token=ffb9a27b-dc4c-4a6a-8a5d-6adbaac49c86", "groupSlugs": ["iran", "middle-east", "nuclear-risk"], "textDescription": "Resolves as YES if Iran has detonated a nuclear device by May 1st 2024\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-54454f6bc6fa \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4e38fffdb730 \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9de92c362204 \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8 "}, {"id": "3Ef5hNuCQ6lPKXzeh691", "creatorId": "6lpfrAV6e2NU436bJudMfYUmjR62", "creatorUsername": "CateHall", "creatorName": "Cate Hall", "createdTime": 1709062869587, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbkFF2iaZVSvQacg-LatuYo4DL4ulrd-tkVRUQSgSY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709152492880, "question": "Will more than 5% of Michigan Democratic primary votes on Feb. 27 be \"uncommitted\"", "slug": "will-more-than-5-of-michigan-democr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CateHall/will-more-than-5-of-michigan-democr", "pool": {"NO": 15404.343283046925, "YES": 266.6166959791864}, "probability": 0.9956661018496326, "p": 0.7990474966842486, "totalLiquidity": 687.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 16525.207369340194, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709152492880, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "6lpfrAV6e2NU436bJudMfYUmjR62", "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709152493301, "lastBetTime": 1709141883589, "lastCommentTime": 1709141893644, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/us/politics/michigan-primary-biden-trump.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/us/politics/michigan-primary-biden-trump.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CateHall%2F63558ec76969.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default"], "textDescription": "Context here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/us/politics/michigan-primary-biden-trump.html"}, {"id": "ngjx69owML7OYsZ5XXgd", "creatorId": "Mgyh0oxORxM6Eca1DUWcB1R4pf52", "creatorUsername": "DeathByTech", "creatorName": "DeathByTech", "createdTime": 1703507323654, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDeathByTech%2F6w4bQQKMDZ.jpeg?alt=media&token=ef640e16-9c3f-4cbe-9043-4e3a77d7c266", "closeTime": 1706763540000, "question": "Will Russia control Krynky by the end of January 2024", "slug": "will-russia-control-krynky-by-the-e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DeathByTech/will-russia-control-krynky-by-the-e", "pool": {"NO": 373.43244449969427, "YES": 4123.110642825143}, "probability": 0.03749156859215418, "p": 0.30073491596008944, "totalLiquidity": 870, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7419.493042756894, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706786401000, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "Mgyh0oxORxM6Eca1DUWcB1R4pf52", "uniqueBettorCount": 46, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706786431709, "lastBetTime": 1706755752053, "lastCommentTime": 1706786429622, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "understandingwar.org", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://understandingwar.org", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be used to determine how this resolves", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes: if the Russian campaign offensive shows krynki  as an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory before end of Jan 31st 2024 at midnight ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No: no otherwise", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/DeathByTech%2F11dde1f6522f.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine", "russia"], "textDescription": "understandingwar.org will be used to determine how this resolves\n\nYes: if the Russian campaign offensive shows krynki  as an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory before end of Jan 31st 2024 at midnight \n\nNo: no otherwise"}, {"id": "cqecwOMnvlmRunkbA21E", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1710315088963, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1712905200000, "question": "Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 12th April show positive growth?", "slug": "will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-3246ff166c1e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-3246ff166c1e", "pool": {"NO": 4164.334484815674, "YES": 84.49092911101894}, "probability": 0.9833587227018877, "p": 0.5452310627463811, "totalLiquidity": 520, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4528.291450939387, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712907456546, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 26, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712905200000, "lastBetTime": 1712904812261, "lastCommentTime": 1712907449251, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Friday 12th April.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is being measured (February in this case). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this reading show positive growth?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution notes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "D6nccD4Z7ACDPKGKy1Kq", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-change-the-f274c791206a"}}, {"text": "  ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "BN7DCZzbYzYyWC73Fun5", "label": "/SimonGrayson/how-high-will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-9ccb890e03f0"}}, {"text": "  ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "xtDpkjVwO9a0ExWFAOrD", "label": "/SimonGrayson/where-will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-202"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "gdp", "uk", "uk-economic-data"], "textDescription": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Friday 12th April.\n\nThis is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is being measured (February in this case). \n\nWill this reading show positive growth?\n\nResolution notes:\n\nA reading of 0.0% resolves to NO\n\nThis market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant\n\nHere are some markets on other UK economic stats:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-change-the-f274c791206a  \n\n@/SimonGrayson/how-high-will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-9ccb890e03f0  \n\n@/SimonGrayson/where-will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-202 "}, {"id": "QHzVch0NFXcyUYRwswSW", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1705877774609, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1705968000000, "question": "Will the Winnipeg Jets beat Boston Bruins on Jan 22? (Prediction Market)", "slug": "will-the-winnipeg-jets-beat-boston", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-winnipeg-jets-beat-boston", "pool": {"NO": 43.427697524514265, "YES": 57.56694788133287}, "probability": 0.42999999999999994, "p": 0.5, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11.761030857847585, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705985839381, "resolutionProbability": 0.43, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705985839997, "lastBetTime": 1705925277200, "lastCommentTime": 1705985834559, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a predictive sports market. That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 6:00pm CST and sit back.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winnipeg Jets vs Boston Bruins @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=jets+vs+bruins#sie=m;/g/11kqmrwf0w;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts at 6:00pm CST.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 6:00pm CST ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Winnipeg Jets win.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FXl5-EPcTY3.png?alt=media&token=6cacba8f-4d90-4a61-bbc3-6800656a8453", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2Fcad3509e5eaa.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nhl", "hockey", "boston-bruins", "yuna-league-beta", "sports-default", "ice-hockey", "winnipeg-jets"], "textDescription": "This is a predictive sports market. That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 6:00pm CST and sit back.\n\n \n\nWinnipeg Jets vs Boston Bruins @6pm CST\n\nGame starts at 6:00pm CST.\n\nThis market closes at 6:00pm CST \n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Winnipeg Jets win.\n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "gvkDS2nIXnPQvbV1V9Cc", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1707183652158, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709701189950, "question": "Will Destiny upload a video on Youtube on Mar 05, 2024? (Eastern Time)", "slug": "will-destiny-upload-a-video-on-yout-fa4e771f3e8a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-upload-a-video-on-yout-fa4e771f3e8a", "pool": {"NO": 19.946343576252914, "YES": 2598.4713064614384}, "probability": 0.005563546011385132, "p": 0.42157583345957, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2437.5566983038684, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709776099631, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218256946, "lastBetTime": 1709701026891, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if Destiny uploaded a video on his main Youtube channel on Mar 05, 2024 (Eastern Time) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@destiny/videos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@destiny/videos", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: If Destiny uploads a video on a given day and the video is later deleted on the same day, this will resolve as 'Yes' provided that someone posts screenshot evidence of the video in the comment section before the market closes. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If no such evidence is provided before the market closes this resolves No.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F9813d2dc5db8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "youtube"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if Destiny uploaded a video on his main Youtube channel on Mar 05, 2024 (Eastern Time) \nResolves to No otherwise.\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/@destiny/videos \n\nNote: If Destiny uploads a video on a given day and the video is later deleted on the same day, this will resolve as 'Yes' provided that someone posts screenshot evidence of the video in the comment section before the market closes. \nIf no such evidence is provided before the market closes this resolves No."}, {"id": "erxK2Ah5kEJuiPiYqleY", "creatorId": "K3Cjs1RMUaZfVECJTUMxvfUtFvl2", "creatorUsername": "lxgr", "creatorName": "Lukas", "createdTime": 1712515768083, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIJV0pUFgPMw6pHkHAFAYAZrvyWQGsI3e68MniyCfbE194_=s96-c", "closeTime": 1713119742632, "question": "Will there be a Game Boy emulator for iOS supporting user-provided ROMs available in the US Apple App Store?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-game-boy-emulator-f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/lxgr/will-there-be-a-game-boy-emulator-f", "pool": {"NO": 180.06484519678125, "YES": 179.55021678808927}, "probability": 0.5039762636909323, "p": 0.5032607740284765, "totalLiquidity": 180, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 40, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1713119742632, "resolutionProbability": 0.5, "resolverId": "K3Cjs1RMUaZfVECJTUMxvfUtFvl2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713197221591, "lastBetTime": 1712584815001, "lastCommentTime": 1713197221070, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple recently [changed](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/5/24122341/apple-app-store-game-emulators-super-apps", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/5/24122341/apple-app-store-game-emulators-super-apps", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") their App Store [guidelines](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://developer.apple.com/app-store/review/guidelines/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://developer.apple.com/app-store/review/guidelines/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), allowing emulation of \"retro game consoles\":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apps may offer certain software that is not embedded in the binary, specifically HTML5 mini apps and mini games, streaming games, chatbots, and plug-ins. Additionally, retro game console emulator apps can offer to download games.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this be limited to games provided by the developer/vendor of the emulator (-> resolves NO), or will users be able to \"sideload\" their own ROMs (-> resolves YES), like they are in the many equivalent emulators being offered in the Google Play Store for Android?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The sideloading functionality must be \"officially present\", i.e. it can't be hidden away in a debug menu accessible only after using a cheat code sequence. (This section is to disqualify \"sneaky emulators\" that have [made it into the app store](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.eteknix.com/snes-emulator-sneaks-onto-ios-app-store/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.eteknix.com/snes-emulator-sneaks-onto-ios-app-store/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") a few times already in the past).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ambiguous cases, I'll resolve based on my subjective impression of Apple tolerating the sideloading functionality. For example, being able to add \"additional app sources\" in a visible app menu and being able to open ROMs from the iOS Files app would both count as YES, while having to press the copyright notice in the app's settings 20 times to get a prompt would resolve to NO (especially if it leads to Apple ultimately removing the emulator from their store).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["app-stores", "emulation", "iphone", "dma", "apple"], "textDescription": "Apple recently [changed](https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/5/24122341/apple-app-store-game-emulators-super-apps) their App Store [guidelines](https://developer.apple.com/app-store/review/guidelines/), allowing emulation of \"retro game consoles\":\n\nApps may offer certain software that is not embedded in the binary, specifically HTML5 mini apps and mini games, streaming games, chatbots, and plug-ins. Additionally, retro game console emulator apps can offer to download games.\n\nWill this be limited to games provided by the developer/vendor of the emulator (-> resolves NO), or will users be able to \"sideload\" their own ROMs (-> resolves YES), like they are in the many equivalent emulators being offered in the Google Play Store for Android?\n\nThe sideloading functionality must be \"officially present\", i.e. it can't be hidden away in a debug menu accessible only after using a cheat code sequence. (This section is to disqualify \"sneaky emulators\" that have [made it into the app store](https://www.eteknix.com/snes-emulator-sneaks-onto-ios-app-store/) a few times already in the past).\n\nIn ambiguous cases, I'll resolve based on my subjective impression of Apple tolerating the sideloading functionality. For example, being able to add \"additional app sources\" in a visible app menu and being able to open ROMs from the iOS Files app would both count as YES, while having to press the copyright notice in the app's settings 20 times to get a prompt would resolve to NO (especially if it leads to Apple ultimately removing the emulator from their store)."}, {"id": "A4NLlx0Z8y9cVl6dz50w", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705150934000, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1705214700000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-01-14 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-2487320c4e85", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-2487320c4e85", "pool": {"NO": 74.39090130752696, "YES": 40.14477826204703}, "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "p": 0.11887409440926598, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14.287985286396243, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705393258476, "resolutionProbability": 0.2, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705393258687, "lastBetTime": 1705196899602, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-14 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-14 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F33039b22b95c.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-14 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-14 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "IukCvE9Gupld3NsKWS83", "creatorId": "j2Qr3Gt10HfrJ0DUmfhmHh4Svex1", "creatorUsername": "JessieLumbur", "creatorName": "Jessie L\u00fcmbur", "createdTime": 1715005560053, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJcybInq457m0NT4bl2au-AFs-iZeoFGp0Nsq5FlfQXwBqa0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1717192740000, "question": "Will a game on steam not in the top 100 most played be in the top 60 most played games at the end of May? Read desc", "slug": "will-a-game-on-steam-not-in-the-top", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JessieLumbur/will-a-game-on-steam-not-in-the-top", "pool": {"NO": 994.9874371066196, "YES": 10.050378152592089}, "probability": 0.99, "p": 0.499999999999999, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 899.9964040971063, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717254803487, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "j2Qr3Gt10HfrJ0DUmfhmHh4Svex1", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717192740000, "lastBetTime": 1717172580234, "lastCommentTime": 1717172683149, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will a game on steam not in the top 100 most played enter the top 60 most played games at the end of May?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This means:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the end of May, if a game in the top 60 according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://store.steampowered.com/charts/mostplayed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://store.steampowered.com/charts/mostplayed", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " was not in the top 100 at the time this question was made, the market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If at the end of May all the games in the top 60 were already at least top 100 at the time this question was made, the market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a game previously not top 100 briefly enters top 60, but then leaves top 60 before the end of May (which would be strange, but if it happens) the market still resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The list of games currently Top 100 most played as of the creation of this market can be found here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://pastebin.com/nNMXFx5K", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://pastebin.com/nNMXFx5K", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Why? I am trying to answer \"will there be any surprise games suddenly getting massive this month, whether newly released or previously unknown\". But that's far too broad and open to interpretation. So instead, if it's already top 100 it's not a surprising game suddenly getting massive, otherwise it is. Makes deciding what to resolve to as easy as going through a list and narrows down possible interpretations.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["gaming"], "textDescription": "Will a game on steam not in the top 100 most played enter the top 60 most played games at the end of May?\n\n\nThis means:\n\nAt the end of May, if a game in the top 60 according to https://store.steampowered.com/charts/mostplayed was not in the top 100 at the time this question was made, the market resolves YES.\n\nIf at the end of May all the games in the top 60 were already at least top 100 at the time this question was made, the market resolves NO.\n\nIf a game previously not top 100 briefly enters top 60, but then leaves top 60 before the end of May (which would be strange, but if it happens) the market still resolves NO.\n\n\nThe list of games currently Top 100 most played as of the creation of this market can be found here: https://pastebin.com/nNMXFx5K\n\nWhy? I am trying to answer \"will there be any surprise games suddenly getting massive this month, whether newly released or previously unknown\". But that's far too broad and open to interpretation. So instead, if it's already top 100 it's not a surprising game suddenly getting massive, otherwise it is. Makes deciding what to resolve to as easy as going through a list and narrows down possible interpretations."}, {"id": "LFQdQgTTcY3bPVIJYxvb", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1708659840339, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1709158098284, "question": "[short-fuse] Will \"Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba\u2014To the Hashira Training\" gross >$9 million during its opening weekend?", "slug": "shortfuse-will-demon-slayer-kimetsu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/shortfuse-will-demon-slayer-kimetsu", "pool": {"NO": 4148.304203064723, "YES": 89.69093329670204}, "probability": 0.9929347810089124, "p": 0.7523892313264922, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4027.215565345019, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709158098284, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709158098746, "lastBetTime": 1709158027739, "lastCommentTime": 1709158076716, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if \"Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training\" (2024) grosses more than $9,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl709394433/?ref_=bo_hm_rs", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl709394433/?ref_=bo_hm_rs", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be used to resolve this market. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Movie: Mugen Train\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11032374/?ref_=bo_se_r_4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " would have been $21,234,994.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, AFAIK, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "typically", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " that \"Domestic Opening\" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution\u2014I will use their \"Domestic Opening\", however they calculate it.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plot synopsis: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After his family was brutally murdered and his sister turned into a demon, Tanjiro Kamado's journey as a demon slayer began. Tanjiro and his comrades embark on a new mission aboard the Mugen Train, on track to despair.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix%2F46960766f653.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["culture-default", "hollywood", "entertainment", "movies", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "television-film", "boxoffice", "anime"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to YES if \"Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training\" (2024) grosses more than $9,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.\n\nSource: The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl709394433/?ref_=bo_hm_rs will be used to resolve this market. \n\nI will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for \"Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Movie: Mugen Train\" would have been $21,234,994.\n\nFor context, AFAIK, typically that \"Domestic Opening\" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution\u2014I will use their \"Domestic Opening\", however they calculate it.\n\nPlot synopsis: \n\nAfter his family was brutally murdered and his sister turned into a demon, Tanjiro Kamado's journey as a demon slayer began. Tanjiro and his comrades embark on a new mission aboard the Mugen Train, on track to despair."}, {"id": "rUe19GhdbKcdlqoNI4RP", "creatorId": "gDTaGlKh2Vh12elhDUerogZ9liQ2", "creatorUsername": "hairygentleman", "creatorName": "hairygentleman", "createdTime": 1709506331568, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2Dl_Rn4nbYXKILDXMne782qd-3SDzOU4iFe_b9mw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1712201476793, "question": "Will the 2024 FIDE Candidates chess tournament be held in Toronto, Canada?", "slug": "will-the-2024-fide-candidates-chess", "url": "https://manifold.markets/hairygentleman/will-the-2024-fide-candidates-chess", "pool": {"NO": 3853.750497014714, "YES": 181.04591758919543}, "probability": 0.9862733097538772, "p": 0.7714540726806267, "totalLiquidity": 440, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6381.015810354029, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712201476793, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "gDTaGlKh2Vh12elhDUerogZ9liQ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712201476793, "lastBetTime": 1712145119709, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the 2024 candidates tournament (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://candidates2024.fide.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://candidates2024.fide.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") is held in Toronto, otherwise NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["chess"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the 2024 candidates tournament (https://candidates2024.fide.com/) is held in Toronto, otherwise NO. "}, {"id": "2jFETRVIYwrgt9LeQYDI", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707687856687, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707721200000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-12 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-f25e6ec3d786", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-f25e6ec3d786", "pool": {"NO": 66.57570537921737, "YES": 100.00000000000003}, "probability": 0.08077986107407048, "p": 0.11660631835631145, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 30, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707773838136, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707773838384, "lastBetTime": 1707687969568, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-12 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-12 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=12", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=12", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F99301b6fc9cc.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-12 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-12 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "4A0zQ1wDDC8JW7laAewn", "creatorId": "MJNcFq8k3kafswE5q0TlGngvhro1", "creatorUsername": "Abaoji", "creatorName": "Abaoji", "createdTime": 1705178223275, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAbaoji%2F5JSRSIKUF8.png?alt=media&token=0f982ab0-b2c1-4070-a8f7-955152deb73c", "closeTime": 1709264811807, "question": "Will the Montreal school bus strike end prior to March 1st 2024?", "slug": "will-the-montreal-school-bus-strike", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Abaoji/will-the-montreal-school-bus-strike", "pool": {"NO": 34.53479776217455, "YES": 1506.835530645787}, "probability": 0.01539978287200858, "p": 0.4056246811141856, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1423.6441834804543, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709264811807, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "MJNcFq8k3kafswE5q0TlGngvhro1", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709264812734, "lastBetTime": 1709246216662, "lastCommentTime": 1709246204253, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Montreal school bus drivers have been on an unlimited general strike for 10 weeks (since Oct 31st 2023). This question resolves Yes if the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CSN union", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.csn.qc.ca/en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ends the strike prior to the start of March 1st 2024 (EST).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution of this question will be determined by reference to local news media - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "LaPresse", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lapresse.ca/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "/", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Montreal Gazette", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://montrealgazette.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet here.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Abaoji%2F90117ea1852a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["montreal", "strikes", "canada", "politics-default", "transportation"], "textDescription": "The Montreal school bus drivers have been on an unlimited general strike for 10 weeks (since Oct 31st 2023). This question resolves Yes if the CSN union ends the strike prior to the start of March 1st 2024 (EST).\n\nThe resolution of this question will be determined by reference to local news media - LaPresse/Montreal Gazette\n\nI will not bet here."}, {"id": "QpevOHGQmfclPYrLcU3P", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704396082632, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704466800000, "question": "Will flight AF 1180 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-05 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-a716325f3ae4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-a716325f3ae4", "pool": {"NO": 86.25158647445745, "YES": 111.00000000000006}, "probability": 0.13043472742199286, "p": 0.16180501953378043, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704489799629, "resolutionProbability": 0.13, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704489799907, "lastBetTime": 1704448997207, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1180 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-05 15:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-05 - 17:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1180?year=2024&month=01&date=05", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1180?year=2024&month=01&date=05", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1180", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fcfd8004325ee.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1180 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-05 15:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-05 - 17:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "WIBzB2gLbvJCQScImteH", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1707096192289, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1710117035484, "question": "Will the 3 \"Arts & Crafts\" Oscars (Makeup/Costume/Production) be awarded to 3 different movies at the Academy Awards?", "slug": "will-the-3-arts-crafts-oscars-makeu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-3-arts-crafts-oscars-makeu", "pool": {"NO": 17.795093510829815, "YES": 3324.60795297361}, "probability": 0.002830600192706257, "p": 0.3465480254284952, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3686.434287993494, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710117035484, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710117037170, "lastBetTime": 1710117026010, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "96th Academy Awards", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/96th_Academy_Awards", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", held in March 2024, will honor movies released in 2023. \"Arts & crafts\" is not an official term, it's just my shorthand for the following three ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "categories", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "example market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Tsunombie/which-film-will-win-the-best-makeup-1f5292ef0128", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "COSTUME DESIGN (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "example market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/mkalbert/what-movie-will-win-the-2024-academ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "PRODUCTION DESIGN (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "example market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Tsunombie/which-film-will-win-the-best-produc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if these awards are spread between three different films. This market will resolve NO if any film wins multiple of these awards.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following 5 films have multiple nominations:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Barbie", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Killers of the Flower Moon", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Napoleon", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oppenheimer", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Poor Things", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please ask if any aspects of resolution are unclear.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-the-4-acting-oscars-be-awarded", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-the-3-sonic-oscars-sound-score", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix%2Fdf8aed66d4b5.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["oscars", "hollywood", "oscars-2024", "movies", "awards-shows", "television-film", "culture-default"], "textDescription": "The 96th Academy Awards, held in March 2024, will honor movies released in 2023. \"Arts & crafts\" is not an official term, it's just my shorthand for the following three categories:\n\nMAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING (example market)\n\nCOSTUME DESIGN (example market)\n\nPRODUCTION DESIGN (example market)\n\nThis market will resolve YES if these awards are spread between three different films. This market will resolve NO if any film wins multiple of these awards.\n\nThe following 5 films have multiple nominations:\n\nBarbie\n\nKillers of the Flower Moon\n\nNapoleon\n\nOppenheimer\n\nPoor Things\n\nPlease ask if any aspects of resolution are unclear.\n\nRelated markets:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-the-4-acting-oscars-be-awarded)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-the-3-sonic-oscars-sound-score)"}, {"id": "Kslak47EREvLe0XA8TRk", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704116554789, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704178800000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-02 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-578dbfa8eaa0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-578dbfa8eaa0", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.19672131147540983, "p": 0.19672131147540983, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704194248366, "resolutionProbability": 0.2, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704194248506, "lastBetTime": 1704116565085, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-02 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-02 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F4428bcc93571.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-02 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-02 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "CykWIMhPfizWSMtBXLWo", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1712006797884, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1712086200000, "question": "Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher Apr 2 than Apr 1?", "slug": "will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-b12c925a9e51", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-b12c925a9e51", "pool": {"NO": 73.2396752623513, "YES": 1117.4273770570585}, "probability": 0.03907968303128037, "p": 0.3829036638732868, "totalLiquidity": 320, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1996.7825329972836, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1712093713619, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712086200000, "lastBetTime": 1712085361246, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aapl", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AAPL closes at 4pm ET", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 3:30pm ET", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if AAPL closes higher Apr 2 than Apr 1", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if AAPL closes lower or flat", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["ai-stocks", "stocks", "aapl", "nasdaq", "apple", "tech-stocks"], "textDescription": "Apple Inc - Daily Dashboard\n\nResolves according to Nasdaq Close Price\n\nAAPL closes at 4pm ET\n\nThis market closes at 3:30pm ET\n\nInitial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.\n\nResolves YES if AAPL closes higher Apr 2 than Apr 1\n\nResolves NO if AAPL closes lower or flat\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "lcKXbGSeS0lNIKUpszeD", "creatorId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "creatorUsername": "PunishedFurry", "creatorName": "Punished Furry", "createdTime": 1715107981506, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1717225140000, "question": "Will Destiny talk to Nick Fuentes again in May 2024?", "slug": "will-destiny-talk-to-nick-fuentes-a-2483d5de0271", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PunishedFurry/will-destiny-talk-to-nick-fuentes-a-2483d5de0271", "pool": {"NO": 693.1570403048829, "YES": 4618.362065594358}, "probability": 0.03182202765952939, "p": 0.17965032268482248, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4022.6392169352644, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1717234451221, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717225140000, "lastBetTime": 1717171426990, "lastCommentTime": 1715726593387, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny has expressed interest in doing more twitter spaces after his successful debate with Tate, Nick Fuentes, and Sneako on 5/5/24.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1787858216967192585"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon even commented under this tweet.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FEYmPypN-0-.png?alt=media&token=246c3054-4d9c-40a0-bfb1-a0f690f4b272", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be done publicly in a voice call or in person.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Related Markets: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "CEEnOCA0EG4168QGJIog,LKiDGGTlQKVMjtriUqyg"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/PunishedFurry/f858f4c3f686.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "culture-default", "politics-default", "technology-default"], "textDescription": "Destiny has expressed interest in doing more twitter spaces after his successful debate with Tate, Nick Fuentes, and Sneako on 5/5/24.\n\n\n[tweet]Elon even commented under this tweet.\n\n\n[image]Must be done publicly in a voice call or in person.\n\nRelated Markets: \n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "ZId6SIjusp7D3fhdj18B", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1702452710753, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1702662300000, "question": "Will flight DL 535 from Los angeles to New york departing on 2023-12-15 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-dl-535-from-los-angeles-c0fd6bf6c1ad", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-535-from-los-angeles-c0fd6bf6c1ad", "pool": {"NO": 70.64120477396241, "YES": 65.10188699892721}, "probability": 0.1218635929128181, "p": 0.113391237221281, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702709999600, "resolutionProbability": 0.12, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702464213111, "lastBetTime": 1702464212824, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 535 from Los angeles (LAX) to New york (JFK), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-15 17:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-15 - 19:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a011:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 05:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/535?year=2023&month=12&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/535?year=2023&month=12&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl535", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fcfffddfb6e26.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 535 from Los angeles (LAX) to New york (JFK), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-15 17:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-15 - 19:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a011:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 05:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "Puz9gEnTqCSOQNxhgsm2", "creatorId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "creatorUsername": "Joshua", "creatorName": "Joshua", "createdTime": 1716829618260, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshua%2Flove-images%2FQ-cHyvFvAI.png?alt=media&token=363611e5-3f90-45c9-87d5-f5791800ee6f", "closeTime": 1717072278634, "question": "Will the TIME 100 Most Influential Companies of 2024 list actually come out in May as promised?", "slug": "will-the-time-100-most-influential", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-the-time-100-most-influential", "pool": {"NO": 13609.17464886922, "YES": 73.47984178328602}, "probability": 0.99462970859686, "p": 0.49999999999999756, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 28795.82685449957, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717072278634, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "uniqueBettorCount": 49, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717432108982, "lastBetTime": 1717072258127, "lastCommentTime": 1717432106337, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This page ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://time100cos.com/#faqs", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "has just said \"2024 HONOREES ANNOUNCED IN MAY\" for ages now. I've been checking every day for my market, ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw", "label": "/Joshua/what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The FAQ says:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FRrOqxm5m11.png?alt=media&token=5ace2baf-8f53-445e-80d0-55cae662dc5f", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 11:59 PM PT on Friday, May 31st. If the list is published before market close, resolves YES. If not, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Joshua/1dcab30a203f.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "technology-default", "business", "companies"], "textDescription": "This page has just said \"2024 HONOREES ANNOUNCED IN MAY\" for ages now. I've been checking every day for my market, @/Joshua/what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 \n\nThe FAQ says:\n\n[image]This market closes at 11:59 PM PT on Friday, May 31st. If the list is published before market close, resolves YES. If not, resolves NO."}, {"id": "yrhOcdrhjhfU4JNIwqyq", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1703790631018, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1706286423504, "question": "Will \"Mean Girls\" (2024) have >65% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes 2 weeks after release?", "slug": "will-mean-girls-2024-have-65-critic", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-mean-girls-2024-have-65-critic", "pool": {"NO": 11892.816499028339, "YES": 214.35310694373948}, "probability": 0.9948729727853957, "p": 0.777650012869491, "totalLiquidity": 570, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15871.32336385095, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706286423504, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706286424016, "lastBetTime": 1706286382606, "lastCommentTime": 1706286402303, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Mean Girls\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mean_girls_2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mean_girls_2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Tomatometer\" score (i.e. critics, not audience). If it lists 66% or above (however RT chooses to round) this market resolves YES. If 65% or below, this market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For reference, the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "original Mean Girls ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mean_girls", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "has a Tomatometer score of 84%, similar to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "recent Wonka musical ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/wonka", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "with 83%.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After 2 weeks post-release, I don't expect the score to be shifting much, so resolution should be straightforward. Just in case, my plan is to check the score on the morning of January 26th (around ~9AM PST) and resolve based on the score at that moment. But I can't promise ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "exactly", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " when I'll check & resolve the market. (AFAIK, you can't easily find the \"RT score as of a specific time\", so it's safer to just say I'll resolve based on \"the score I see when I check RT on that day\").", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDargQVQf1Y.jpg?alt=media&token=b75f9f0e-2694-4245-8730-a1df0d08e5f2", "title": null}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix%2F245bdf43a32a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["television-film", "media-rating-futures", "culture-default", "movies", "hollywood", "rotten-tomatoes", "entertainment", "boxoffice"], "textDescription": "\"Mean Girls\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mean_girls_2024\n\nI will use the \"Tomatometer\" score (i.e. critics, not audience). If it lists 66% or above (however RT chooses to round) this market resolves YES. If 65% or below, this market resolves NO.\n\nFor reference, the original Mean Girls has a Tomatometer score of 84%, similar to the recent Wonka musical with 83%.\n\nAfter 2 weeks post-release, I don't expect the score to be shifting much, so resolution should be straightforward. Just in case, my plan is to check the score on the morning of January 26th (around ~9AM PST) and resolve based on the score at that moment. But I can't promise exactly when I'll check & resolve the market. (AFAIK, you can't easily find the \"RT score as of a specific time\", so it's safer to just say I'll resolve based on \"the score I see when I check RT on that day\").\n\nI may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).\n\nIf any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "wcn3YzG3oMTKMNYQnLH6", "creatorId": "cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2", "creatorUsername": "admissions", "creatorName": "lukres", "createdTime": 1710670822330, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2", "closeTime": 1710748817640, "question": "Will a notable person die on March 18th, 2024?", "slug": "will-a-notable-person-die-on-march", "url": "https://manifold.markets/admissions/will-a-notable-person-die-on-march", "pool": {"NO": 10774.967275757608, "YES": 63.578784642506434}, "probability": 0.9987364942046253, "p": 0.82345014432252, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11180.713007096736, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710748817640, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710748875305, "lastBetTime": 1710748772459, "lastCommentTime": 1710748861185, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For simplicity, notable person = person with a Wikipedia page existing before March 18th and whose date of death is reliably reported by the end of March 18th, PST. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["longevity", "wikipedia", "celebrities", "death-markets"], "textDescription": "For simplicity, notable person = person with a Wikipedia page existing before March 18th and whose date of death is reliably reported by the end of March 18th, PST. "}, {"id": "vV1qs5cyN6n0G216vsz9", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703883754139, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704036900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2023-12-31 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-e8cde5f66aa1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-e8cde5f66aa1", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.13114754098360656, "p": 0.13114754098360656, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704055319185, "resolutionProbability": 0.13, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704055319489, "lastBetTime": 1703883761943, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-31 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F4e44a4d9ea8a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-31 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "ibYAHUtgIipXtMqeTNCQ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1702451513360, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1702652400000, "question": "Will flight AF 1180 from Paris to London departing on 2023-12-15 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-f3ffacd97264", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-f3ffacd97264", "pool": {"NO": 156.92457081874238, "YES": 270.05939075352615}, "probability": 0.08390517032996363, "p": 0.1361601063620531, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 139, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702671638348, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702650993068, "lastBetTime": 1702650992929, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1180 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-15 15:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-15 - 17:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1180?year=2023&month=12&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1180?year=2023&month=12&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1180", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F2eb676101fbd.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1180 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-15 15:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-15 - 17:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "0pRGr3abPa0RE99cLoL3", "creatorId": "HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2", "creatorUsername": "Noah1", "creatorName": "Noah", "createdTime": 1702703009936, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1713919602107, "question": "Will the United States reauthorize Section 702 by EOY 2024? (Allows warrantless surveillance in some cases)", "slug": "will-the-united-states-reauthorize-6747e0bf2ac4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Noah1/will-the-united-states-reauthorize-6747e0bf2ac4", "pool": {"NO": 678.5585097706679, "YES": 195.9382545851312}, "probability": 0.8949102512719671, "p": 0.7108955707885856, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 681.008587504859, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1713919602107, "resolutionProbability": 0.89, "resolverId": "HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713919602107, "lastBetTime": 1713022815774, "lastCommentTime": 1713656266819, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US Intelligence Community is pushing to have Section 702, which is set to expire this year, reauthorized. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Section 702", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.intel.gov/foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act/1237-fisa-section-702", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " allows warrantless surveillance of people outside of the US. The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Section's critics", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2023/11/intelligence-committees-proposals-702-reauthorization-bill-are-beyond-bad", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " argue that it's being abused. Will it be reauthorized?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if the US reauthorizes Section 702 by the end of 2024. It will also resolve YES if an amended or reformed version of the Section is passed, or if a functionally identical/very similar statute is passed. The Section must be reauthorized for more than a year to count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Noah1%2F692ba673a182.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "privacy", "internet", "politics-default"], "textDescription": "The US Intelligence Community is pushing to have Section 702, which is set to expire this year, reauthorized. Section 702 allows warrantless surveillance of people outside of the US. The Section's critics argue that it's being abused. Will it be reauthorized?\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the US reauthorizes Section 702 by the end of 2024. It will also resolve YES if an amended or reformed version of the Section is passed, or if a functionally identical/very similar statute is passed. The Section must be reauthorized for more than a year to count."}, {"id": "iFAbdkUQ5UtQfFmimoXO", "creatorId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "creatorUsername": "OllieG", "creatorName": "Ollie G", "createdTime": 1710962423489, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdz4Yj3np666O_tJ0KIuoQIaeWb8QVEZmqKi9uN0kvKDak=s96-c", "closeTime": 1715201799548, "question": "Will the Georgia Court of Appeals hear Trump's appeal and weigh in on Fani Willis?", "slug": "will-the-georgia-court-of-appeals-h", "url": "https://manifold.markets/OllieG/will-the-georgia-court-of-appeals-h", "pool": {"NO": 213.07665532619777, "YES": 152.8504014738123}, "probability": 0.5965008090048498, "p": 0.5146742358986931, "totalLiquidity": 180, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 66, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715201799548, "resolutionProbability": 0.6, "resolverId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715201818997, "lastBetTime": 1712012843528, "lastCommentTime": 1715201817643, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Georgia Judge Allows Trump and Co-Defendants to Appeal Ruling on Prosecutor. An appeals court will now decide if it will weigh in on whether Fani T. Willis, the Fulton County district attorney, should be disqualified", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/20/us/trump-georgia-fani-willis-appeal.html?ugrp=m&unlocked_article_code=1.eE0.8tfG.eO_L_rTWkqQp&smid=url-share", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scott McAfee, the judge in the George election interference case against Trump, recently ruled that District Attorney Fani Willis could stay on the case, despite her relationship with a lead prosecutor she hired. Trump is appealing this decision to the Georgia Court of Appeals. Will this appellate court agree to review McAfee's ruling? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Under Georgia law, the defense lawyers now have 10 days to file an application to the appeals court...The appeals court will have 45 days from the defense filing to say whether it is going to take the case or not.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Georgia Court of Appeals announces it is going to review the decision", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES even if the court accepts the appeal request and ultimately decides to uphold McAfee's original decision", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if the court announces they are not taking up the case", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if the court doesn't comment on the appeal request by the 45 day deadline quoted above", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["donald-trump", "court-cases", "georgia", "trial-of-the-century"], "textDescription": "\"Georgia Judge Allows Trump and Co-Defendants to Appeal Ruling on Prosecutor. An appeals court will now decide if it will weigh in on whether Fani T. Willis, the Fulton County district attorney, should be disqualified.\"\n\nContext\n\nScott McAfee, the judge in the George election interference case against Trump, recently ruled that District Attorney Fani Willis could stay on the case, despite her relationship with a lead prosecutor she hired. Trump is appealing this decision to the Georgia Court of Appeals. Will this appellate court agree to review McAfee's ruling? \n\n\"Under Georgia law, the defense lawyers now have 10 days to file an application to the appeals court...The appeals court will have 45 days from the defense filing to say whether it is going to take the case or not.\"\n\nResolution criteria\n\nResolves YES if the Georgia Court of Appeals announces it is going to review the decision\n\nResolves YES even if the court accepts the appeal request and ultimately decides to uphold McAfee's original decision\n\nResolves NO if the court announces they are not taking up the case\n\nResolves NO if the court doesn't comment on the appeal request by the 45 day deadline quoted above"}, {"id": "8Zx2OKJFsgTrerVgZwQa", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1707138593879, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1716586406300, "question": "Will Taylor Swift's new album (Tortured Poets Department) reach #1 in these same 10 countries as her last album?", "slug": "will-taylor-swifts-new-album-tortur", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-taylor-swifts-new-album-tortur", "pool": {"NO": 5500.290669051882, "YES": 501.3499495402376}, "probability": 0.9648183926936165, "p": 0.714259973160582, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4649.934871651166, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716586406300, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716586406300, "lastBetTime": 1716586401815, "lastCommentTime": 1716586346497, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Her last album Midnights reached the #1 position in: US, AUS, CAN, DEN, IRE, NZ, NOR, SPA, SWE and UK.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift_albums_discography", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift_albums_discography", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/strutheo%2Fbe40f2656749.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["music-f213cbf1eab5", "taylor-swift", "music-artists", "albums", "music-industry"], "textDescription": "Her last album Midnights reached the #1 position in: US, AUS, CAN, DEN, IRE, NZ, NOR, SPA, SWE and UK.\n\nLink: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift_albums_discography"}, {"id": "HObvIUFVzh3NktEcU9Gj", "creatorId": "R37sScQRoKT4FQsfoVbrz9uOjyD2", "creatorUsername": "BernieB", "creatorName": "Bernie B", "createdTime": 1707224902859, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK95m7MeYcOAHitk15lojXt5PU6z-9zG9ULA2fHBFjblBg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1707886740000, "question": "Will Sony Group Corporation $SONY report higher total 3rd quarter sales in FY2023 compared to their 3rd Quarter 2022.", "slug": "will-sony-group-corporation-sony-re", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BernieB/will-sony-group-corporation-sony-re", "pool": {"NO": 345.87971981349716, "YES": 181.1293772614497}, "probability": 0.6771971883215082, "p": 0.5234930224127159, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 630.7805765314007, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707900950280, "resolutionProbability": 0.57, "resolverId": "R37sScQRoKT4FQsfoVbrz9uOjyD2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707901234256, "lastBetTime": 1707872273272, "lastCommentTime": 1707901233682, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Per Finviz, Sony Group Corporation is expected to report earnings on Feb 14 Before Market Open.  Their 3rd quarter 2022 report showed total sales increased by +381.6 bln yen from their 3rd quarter 2021.   The third quarter is important because it covers the three months ended that December 31.  I will resolve this based on the information posted to the SONY Investor Relations page earnings releases: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Sony Group Portal - Earnings Announcement", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/archive.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/BernieB%2Fe139398d1bb2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "technology-default", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Per Finviz, Sony Group Corporation is expected to report earnings on Feb 14 Before Market Open.  Their 3rd quarter 2022 report showed total sales increased by +381.6 bln yen from their 3rd quarter 2021.   The third quarter is important because it covers the three months ended that December 31.  I will resolve this based on the information posted to the SONY Investor Relations page earnings releases: Sony Group Portal - Earnings Announcement"}, {"id": "Hozqp49jC4Uu76vAEsaI", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1713063106784, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1714742993709, "question": "Will \"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare\" (2024) have >70% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes?", "slug": "will-the-ministry-of-ungentlemanly-e6b5e9df1560", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-ministry-of-ungentlemanly-e6b5e9df1560", "pool": {"NO": 6926.461577777276, "YES": 99.13409940522342}, "probability": 0.99, "p": 0.5862511068383529, "totalLiquidity": 620, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8977.081115405317, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1714742993709, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 31, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714743142033, "lastBetTime": 1714742971652, "lastCommentTime": 1714743140370, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_ministry_of_ungentlemanly_warfare", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_ministry_of_ungentlemanly_warfare", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "May 3rd ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(two weeks after release).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ties resolve NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, here are the Tomatometer scores for other recent films by the same director (Guy Ritchie):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Guy Ritchie's The Covenant - 83%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/guy_ritchies_the_covenant", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre - 51%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/operation_fortune_ruse_de_guerre", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wrath of Man - 67%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/wrath_of_man", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare\" stars Henry Cavill (\"Man of Steel\") and Alan Ritchson (\"Reacher\").", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "boxoffice", "movies", "television-film", "culture-default"], "textDescription": "\"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_ministry_of_ungentlemanly_warfare\n\nI will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 3rd (two weeks after release).\n\nDetails:\n\nI will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).\n\nFor context, here are the Tomatometer scores for other recent films by the same director (Guy Ritchie):\n\nGuy Ritchie's The Covenant - 83%\n\nOperation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre - 51%\n\nWrath of Man - 67%\n\n\"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare\" stars Henry Cavill (\"Man of Steel\") and Alan Ritchson (\"Reacher\").\n\n"}, {"id": "XMszOCV5uvzN27x9C7SN", "creatorId": "LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322", "creatorUsername": "esusatyo", "creatorName": "Enrico Susatyo", "createdTime": 1712572050951, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fesusatyo%2FEdn_h0yDQN.png?alt=media&token=fad88830-632c-406f-8a98-6f3b503a06f8", "closeTime": 1715094140574, "question": "\ud83d\udcf1 Will Apple have a product release event in May 2024?", "slug": "-will-apple-have-a-product-release-e68160ad8a68", "url": "https://manifold.markets/esusatyo/-will-apple-have-a-product-release-e68160ad8a68", "pool": {"NO": 7479.926660077874, "YES": 498.13585576485457}, "probability": 0.9900000000000001, "p": 0.8683004297757125, "totalLiquidity": 1035, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 27508.871286953847, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715094140574, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322", "uniqueBettorCount": 53, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715094140574, "lastBetTime": 1715086996823, "lastCommentTime": 1713911221056, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Just a press release doesn't count, but if they ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announce a video ahead of time and play it live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (even if there are no in-person participants), I will resolve this as YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["apple", "-ipad", "-mac", "technology-default"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023\n\nJust a press release doesn't count, but if they announce a video ahead of time and play it live (even if there are no in-person participants), I will resolve this as YES."}, {"id": "zPrJEgb4ZbzAPIT348qW", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702935317360, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703113200000, "question": "Will DOT close higher on December 20 than it closed on December 19?", "slug": "will-dot-close-higher-on-december-2-3cf07d55658a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-2-3cf07d55658a", "pool": {"NO": 485.0290331135458, "YES": 116.79732264779453}, "probability": 0.9163656593671818, "p": 0.7251578981383072, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 614.9913730084949, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703222192598, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703222188091, "lastBetTime": 1703111320936, "lastCommentTime": 1703222187383, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $6.70", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F642c924582da.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "economics-default", "hawsbollah", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $6.70\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "DeWET2X6yYPP2mITgzpl", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707429228081, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707510300000, "question": "Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-02-09 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-5a479021bcf2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-5a479021bcf2", "pool": {"NO": 105.50458230711224, "YES": 140}, "probability": 0.10858079013752277, "p": 0.13914227589586592, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 30, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707585578478, "resolutionProbability": 0.11, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707585578782, "lastBetTime": 1707502361035, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-09 20:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-09 - 22:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 06:45", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=02&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=02&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af333", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F595a2c6d037f.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-09 20:25 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-09 - 22:25 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 06:45\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "myDSgvho7kv0WEUwgD3q", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1706798836031, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1711853359244, "question": "Will the US Congress pass 2 or more bills in Mar 2024?", "slug": "will-the-us-congress-pass-2-or-more-8cb0844a80dd", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-us-congress-pass-2-or-more-8cb0844a80dd", "pool": {"NO": 20608.393418352935, "YES": 74.12349883931529}, "probability": 0.9995228436628946, "p": 0.8828259865245841, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 22308.58299210675, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711853359244, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711853359588, "lastBetTime": 1711853356209, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution base on passed bills listed on LegiScan ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://legiscan.com/US/legislation?status=passed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://legiscan.com/US/legislation?status=passed", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if the US Congress passed 2 or more bills in Mar 2024 ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2Fa54b4a1b12f9.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "118th-congress"], "textDescription": "Resolution base on passed bills listed on LegiScan \nhttps://legiscan.com/US/legislation?status=passed \nResolves YES if the US Congress passed 2 or more bills in Mar 2024 \n"}, {"id": "QP1XMjp7vtiuo5hPjtTy", "creatorId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "creatorUsername": "StochasticParrot", "creatorName": "Stochastic Cockatoo", "createdTime": 1706743392411, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAlexKChen%2F9t8qK-m5xV.jpg?alt=media&token=49516106-09f1-4739-8fe2-84ed34157855", "closeTime": 1708198498551, "question": "Will February 2024 in Denver have more than 10 inches of snow?", "slug": "will-february-2024-in-denver-have-m", "url": "https://manifold.markets/StochasticParrot/will-february-2024-in-denver-have-m", "pool": {"NO": 723.4011712793699, "YES": 3.4558970862303795}, "probability": 0.9952454241189382, "p": 0.5000000000000027, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 891.6629148566014, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1708198498551, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708198488169, "lastBetTime": 1708198488013, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/stochasticcockatoo%2F024097246c5e.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["will-it-snow", "weather", "denver"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "JY0KRqqoBKijxsU0ekQB", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1707681939587, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1711375199950, "question": "Will the highest temperature in NYC in Mar 24, 2024 be higher than the previous day?", "slug": "will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-476338487621", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-476338487621", "pool": {"NO": 41.27386298364537, "YES": 4665.9365047457995}, "probability": 0.002925878170563004, "p": 0.2491003778360435, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4996.259746874298, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711461535604, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711375199950, "lastBetTime": 1711374433978, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 24, 2024 is higher than the previous day ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F4ff408900b32.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["weather"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 24, 2024 is higher than the previous day \nResolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) \n\nHighest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report \nhttps://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 \n\nNote: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. \n"}, {"id": "0k9r2nXNHMcumbFzi4TG", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704623882155, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704696300000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-01-08 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-17f05c7e985d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-17f05c7e985d", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.08474576271186439, "p": 0.08474576271186439, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704786704142, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704786704419, "lastBetTime": 1704623887689, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-08 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-08 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=08", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=08", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F4ee7ac2fc7b5.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-08 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-08 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "CZfxojFWODuA5TR3R6qp", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1705002677406, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1709832901507, "question": "Will Joseph Anderson's anticipated Witcher 3 review video come out before Sweden joins NATO?", "slug": "will-joseph-andersons-anticipated-w", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-joseph-andersons-anticipated-w", "pool": {"NO": 79.1715968495885, "YES": 5723.7298239572765}, "probability": 0.004319171501697093, "p": 0.23873909866913057, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6073.302254955921, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709832901507, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206974698, "lastBetTime": 1709827087932, "lastCommentTime": 1709656590240, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/strutheo%2F9da7cb5420b3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "world-default", "gaming", "geopolitics", "youtube", "video-games", "nato", "sweden", "world-news", "turkey", "turkiye-b17936d0f8e0", "turkish-politics", "reviews", "witcher"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "M13yMq0A9BbYVp9fcry1", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1705288801344, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1716409866738, "question": "Will Manifold have raised $300K USD or more for charity by EOY 2026?", "slug": "will-manifold-have-raised-300k-usd", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-manifold-have-raised-300k-usd", "pool": {"NO": 1669.92962318375, "YES": 37.77696007079203}, "probability": 0.9897299304063789, "p": 0.6855423655716362, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1544.5444397622005, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716409866738, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716409866738, "lastBetTime": 1716409841460, "lastCommentTime": 1716409844265, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/strutheo%2Fed997a03df47.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-for-charity", "charity", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-adoption", "2026"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "mq3NgvqYtgzAx7JGs8Wp", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1710359262569, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1715960306168, "question": "Will \"The Fall Guy\" (2024) have a Metacritic score >75?", "slug": "will-the-fall-guy-2024-have-a-metac", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-fall-guy-2024-have-a-metac", "pool": {"NO": 10.791842533013494, "YES": 1244.040991950551}, "probability": 0.009999999999999941, "p": 0.537979165362273, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1272.198434835357, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715960306168, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715960306168, "lastBetTime": 1715951958945, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Fall Guy\" (2024) Metacritic page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-fall-guy/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-fall-guy/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve based on the Metascore (i.e. critics, not audiences) on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "May 17th ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(two weeks after release).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\"The Fall Guy\" just premiered at SXSW, and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "some reviews have already been released", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\u2014I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Metascore might shift a good deal.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example: the Metascore for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Deadpool 2\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/deadpool-2/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (same director) is currently 66.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Fall Guy\" is an upcoming (May 5th release) action blockbuster directed by David Leitch (\"Deadpool 2\", \"Bullet Train\", \"Atomic Blonde\"), about a stuntman (Ryan Gosling) who has to find ex (Emily Blunt) after she goes missing. Here's the trailer:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/j7jPnwVGdZ8", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["television-film", "entertainment", "boxoffice", "media-rating-futures", "culture-default", "movies", "hollywood"], "textDescription": "\"The Fall Guy\" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-fall-guy/\n\nI will resolve based on the Metascore (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 17th (two weeks after release).\n\nDetails\n\nNOTE: \"The Fall Guy\" just premiered at SXSW, and some reviews have already been released\u2014I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Metascore might shift a good deal.\n\nI will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).\n\nExample: the Metascore for \"Deadpool 2\" (same director) is currently 66.\n\nContext\n\n\"The Fall Guy\" is an upcoming (May 5th release) action blockbuster directed by David Leitch (\"Deadpool 2\", \"Bullet Train\", \"Atomic Blonde\"), about a stuntman (Ryan Gosling) who has to find ex (Emily Blunt) after she goes missing. Here's the trailer:\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/j7jPnwVGdZ8)"}, {"id": "XtOuro6OXb0VebJpah3G", "creatorId": "iPIwiy5uHBUuXKW43XoIXg15PKW2", "creatorUsername": "howahlah", "creatorName": "howahlah", "createdTime": 1707160180438, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhowahlah%2FIo-WKZQAT4.webp?alt=media&token=dc3be555-03e2-4b4b-806a-8ad38ae98918", "closeTime": 1707978409260, "question": "Will 'Madame Web' (2024) get a CinemaScore of B+ or higher?", "slug": "will-madame-web-2024-get-a-cinemasc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/howahlah/will-madame-web-2024-get-a-cinemasc", "pool": {"NO": 10.969393393503196, "YES": 8419.985472369588}, "probability": 0.0009089781498057233, "p": 0.4111954359208772, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8284.24450978854, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707978409260, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "iPIwiy5uHBUuXKW43XoIXg15PKW2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707978409902, "lastBetTime": 1707978373232, "lastCommentTime": 1707950043776, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if 'Madame Web' (2024) receives a CinemaScore of B+, A-, A, or A+.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if it receives any other CinemaScore (B or lower).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if no CinemaScore is published by the closing date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cinemascore.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cinemascore.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be used as the source of truth for this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CinemaScores of other movies in Sony's Spider-Man Universe:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Venom (2018): B+", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Venom: Let There Be Carnage (2021): B+", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Morbius (2022): C+", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/howahlah%2F928d51dea47e.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "movies", "television-film", "boxoffice", "hollywood", "media-rating-futures", "cinema"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if 'Madame Web' (2024) receives a CinemaScore of B+, A-, A, or A+.\n\nResolves NO if it receives any other CinemaScore (B or lower).\n\nResolves N/A if no CinemaScore is published by the closing date.\n\nhttps://www.cinemascore.com/ will be used as the source of truth for this market.\n\nCinemaScores of other movies in Sony's Spider-Man Universe:\n\nVenom (2018): B+\n\nVenom: Let There Be Carnage (2021): B+\n\nMorbius (2022): C+"}, {"id": "KvvscXjSURsiKF9on2xP", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703080429962, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703286000000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on December 22 than it closed on December 21?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-2-6ae8ef33f1bc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-2-6ae8ef33f1bc", "pool": {"NO": 191.3854003204196, "YES": 147.72792555784315}, "probability": 0.5763322943230693, "p": 0.5122020774293368, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 301.48854969745827, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703291495266, "resolutionProbability": 0.58, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703291491656, "lastBetTime": 1703285491006, "lastCommentTime": 1703291490962, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F6ea27970f074.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "NNUuATHQTTIurb1GRd7n", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1711563850028, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1712005221685, "question": "Will The Russell 2000 Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?", "slug": "will-the-russell-2000-index-decreas", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-index-decreas", "pool": {"NO": 289.99999999999994, "YES": 79.5958145776938}, "probability": 0.8522047153041011, "p": 0.6127957276436587, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 150, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712005221685, "resolutionProbability": 0.85, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712005221685, "lastBetTime": 1711630921906, "lastCommentTime": 1712005214639, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Will The Russell 2000 Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source used is *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Russell 2000", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Daily Open/Close Time: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between even 0.001% which official S&P 500 Data Source will be used in these instances for 2 sources with possibility of a third to assure official information is confirmed correct!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/MarketWatch/WSJ/CNBC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "russel-2000"], "textDescription": "Will The Russell 2000 Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?\n\nMarket Information:\n\nThe official source used is *Google Finance\n\nRussell 2000\n\nDaily Open/Close Time: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC\n\nResolving:\n\nResolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nNote: Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between even 0.001% which official S&P 500 Data Source will be used in these instances for 2 sources with possibility of a third to assure official information is confirmed correct!\n\nDISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n\n*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/MarketWatch/WSJ/CNBC.\n"}, {"id": "eBxx8X0aYxW2HzuGa3pM", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703150132294, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703201400000, "question": "Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2023-12-22 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.06666666666666667, "p": 0.06666666666666667, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703374405927, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703150137975, "lastBetTime": 1703150137859, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-21 23:30 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-22 - 01:30 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:30 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:30 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:30 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 07:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2023&month=12&date=22", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2023&month=12&date=22", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl224", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Ff59dae525391.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-21 23:30 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-22 - 01:30 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:30 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:30 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:30 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 07:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "W4dbrSr6IpRfatxEWeFo", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705954284183, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706024100000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-01-23 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-3e960aefa27f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-3e960aefa27f", "pool": {"NO": 87.14261813900427, "YES": 110.00000000000001}, "probability": 0.10861974012430455, "p": 0.13331236395470944, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 20, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706045352266, "resolutionProbability": 0.11, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706045352438, "lastBetTime": 1706013921670, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-23 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-23 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fb083d7bd7eac.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-23 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-23 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "Sk5mBFCERnjfyxRswlXN", "creatorId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "creatorUsername": "marktwse", "creatorName": "Marktwse", "createdTime": 1704833037906, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmarktwse%2FWjhyMIEV_F.png?alt=media&token=6048ec55-a1e3-4188-9bef-c594df1664e4", "closeTime": 1706772564939, "question": "Nintendo Direct happening this January?", "slug": "nintendo-direct-happening-this-janu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/marktwse/nintendo-direct-happening-this-janu", "pool": {"NO": 413.2352544374963, "YES": 5792.285185096778}, "probability": 0.01962968301090402, "p": 0.21915072637693428, "totalLiquidity": 870, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5643.587582530531, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706772564939, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "uniqueBettorCount": 47, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706772566983, "lastBetTime": 1706772534752, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nintendo Direct", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " is a series of online presentation or live shows produced by Nintendo, where information regarding the company's upcoming content or franchises is presented, such as information about games and consoles. (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wikipedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_Direct", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yup, I'm hearing from the usual sources that Nintendo is planning a Direct to air this very month. It could air from this coming week, to the end of the month.\u00a0(", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "Zippo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://zippospeaks.blogspot.com/2024/01/nintendo-direct-watch-season-begins-now.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES when a Nintendo Direct happens in January 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO in February.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/marktwse%2F8dca705b47f8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["gaming", "nintendo", "nintendo-direct"], "textDescription": "Nintendo Direct is a series of online presentation or live shows produced by Nintendo, where information regarding the company's upcoming content or franchises is presented, such as information about games and consoles. (Wikipedia)\n\nYup, I'm hearing from the usual sources that Nintendo is planning a Direct to air this very month. It could air from this coming week, to the end of the month.\u00a0(Zippo)\n\nResolves YES when a Nintendo Direct happens in January 2024.\n\nResolves NO in February."}, {"id": "iwoVlF4PygWiJjgX5JRr", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707429217728, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707646800000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-02-11 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-a6dc96cacbb6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-a6dc96cacbb6", "pool": {"NO": 86.42190327806392, "YES": 112.74401485818481}, "probability": 0.11639392026508061, "p": 0.14664607986983513, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 64, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707687471430, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707687471692, "lastBetTime": 1707631154727, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-11 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-11 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=02&date=11", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=02&date=11", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F261583c8bf6b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-11 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-11 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "SOMhBe9JA2ernbw0wvUz", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703678773615, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703918700000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2023-12-30 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-371f3de0e81e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-371f3de0e81e", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.05, "p": 0.05, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703955659789, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703955660122, "lastBetTime": 1703678779146, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-30 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-30 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2023&month=12&date=30", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2023&month=12&date=30", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F3e7791369e03.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-30 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-30 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "6F3hiMmHNCYhXY1uUNWS", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706986196027, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707060900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-04 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-bbee4e65f962", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-bbee4e65f962", "pool": {"NO": 70.99999999999997, "YES": 65.19694997886066}, "probability": 0.18116943062668867, "p": 0.16886232713033905, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707079223413, "resolutionProbability": 0.18, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707079224126, "lastBetTime": 1707060797642, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-04 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-04 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F63e91725f5d3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-04 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-04 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "bZ7H422QE8ehBxbwQuFW", "creatorId": "WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2", "creatorUsername": "BrunoClawfeld", "creatorName": "Bruno Clawfeld", "createdTime": 1704503370909, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3", "closeTime": 1711039239331, "question": "Will the US Justice Department File an Anti-Trust Case Against Apple in 2024?", "slug": "will-the-us-justice-department-file", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BrunoClawfeld/will-the-us-justice-department-file", "pool": {"NO": 828.1914225848792, "YES": 225.40845995388992}, "probability": 0.9191985429320018, "p": 0.7558715554389782, "totalLiquidity": 325.75, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 753.9779957691018, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711039239331, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "resolverId": "WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711039239331, "lastBetTime": 1711033368909, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Update - March 21, 2024", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It's official, closing this market shortly. Thank you for participating. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "From the online newsroom of the U.S. Justice Department.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Justice Department Sues Apple for Monopolizing Smartphone Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thursday, March 21, 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For Immediate Release", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Office of Public Affairs", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple\u2019s Broad-Based, Exclusionary Conduct Makes It Harder for Americans to Switch Smartphones, Undermines Innovation for Apps, Products, and Services, and Imposes Extraordinary Costs on Developers, Businesses, and Consumers", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The Justice Department, joined by 16 other state and district attorneys general, filed a civil antitrust lawsuit against Apple for monopolization or attempted monopolization of smartphone markets in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple-monopolizing-smartphone-markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple-monopolizing-smartphone-markets", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Jan 5, 2024 - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "U.S. Moves Closer to Filing Sweeping Antitrust Case Against Apple", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The Justice Department is in the late stages of an investigation into Apple and could file a sweeping antitrust case taking aim at the company\u2019s strategies to protect the dominance of the iPhone as soon as the first half of this year, said three people with knowledge of the matter.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://dnyuz.com/2024/01/05/u-s-moves-closer-to-filing-sweeping-antitrust-case-against-apple/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://dnyuz.com/2024/01/05/u-s-moves-closer-to-filing-sweeping-antitrust-case-against-apple/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/BrianCaulfield%2F9cb43a572c6a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["apple", "legal-decisions"], "textDescription": "\n\nUpdate - March 21, 2024\n\nIt's official, closing this market shortly. Thank you for participating. \n\nFrom the online newsroom of the U.S. Justice Department.\n\nJustice Department Sues Apple for Monopolizing Smartphone Markets\n\nThursday, March 21, 2024\n\nFor Immediate Release\nOffice of Public Affairs\n\n\nApple\u2019s Broad-Based, Exclusionary Conduct Makes It Harder for Americans to Switch Smartphones, Undermines Innovation for Apps, Products, and Services, and Imposes Extraordinary Costs on Developers, Businesses, and Consumers\n\nThe Justice Department, joined by 16 other state and district attorneys general, filed a civil antitrust lawsuit against Apple for monopolization or attempted monopolization of smartphone markets in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.\n\nhttps://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple-monopolizing-smartphone-markets\n\nJan 5, 2024 - \n\nU.S. Moves Closer to Filing Sweeping Antitrust Case Against Apple\n\nThe Justice Department is in the late stages of an investigation into Apple and could file a sweeping antitrust case taking aim at the company\u2019s strategies to protect the dominance of the iPhone as soon as the first half of this year, said three people with knowledge of the matter.\n\nhttps://dnyuz.com/2024/01/05/u-s-moves-closer-to-filing-sweeping-antitrust-case-against-apple/"}, {"id": "Q7ErtGJpfJIYeixMd9ng", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706986117983, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707030000000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-04 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-56986400adbe", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-56986400adbe", "pool": {"NO": 61.59750775366644, "YES": 147.78319375309275}, "probability": 0.060000000000000095, "p": 0.13280172310593547, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 100, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707045446194, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707045446424, "lastBetTime": 1707018527771, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-04 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-04 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F95c30069233c.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-04 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-04 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "VBfIUJPlABgCOTBzZezs", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1708382729084, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1711971508230, "question": "Will \"Dune: Part Two\" receive >50% as many perfect scores (i.e. 100) from critics on Metacritic as \"Oppenheimer\"?", "slug": "will-dune-part-two-receive-50-as-ma", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-dune-part-two-receive-50-as-ma", "pool": {"NO": 39.065008295043526, "YES": 17101.813329729626}, "probability": 0.0016782537144565451, "p": 0.4239426154484997, "totalLiquidity": 550, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 18872.583465219268, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711971508230, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 29, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711971508230, "lastBetTime": 1711971499392, "lastCommentTime": 1711971471739, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, Metacritic shows 69 (critic) reviews for \"Oppenheimer\": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/oppenheimer/critic-reviews/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/oppenheimer/critic-reviews/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By my count, it received a perfect score of 100 in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "27", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " of these reviews.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "50% of 27 is 13.5. This is the threshold \"Dune: Part Two\" needs to surpass.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if within one month after release (April 1st), Metacritic has recorded ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "14 or more", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " reviews for \"Dune: Part Two\" with the score of 100: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dune-part-two/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dune-part-two/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " . If there are 13 or fewer reviews with the score of 100, it resolves NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For reference, Metacritic shows 68 reviews for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Dune\" (2021)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dune-part-one/critic-reviews/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". By my count, 8 of these reviews have a score of 100.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am not normalizing for the total number of reviews. All that matters is the total number recorded by Metacritic with a score of 100.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am allowing for a full month after release to give plenty of time for reviews to arrive. But occasionally a few reviews will appear on Metacritic more than a month after release. These will not be counted. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix%2F8ddbc62b1259.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["media-rating-futures", "culture-default", "metacritic", "movies", "dune", "entertainment", "rotten-tomatoes", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720"], "textDescription": "Currently, Metacritic shows 69 (critic) reviews for \"Oppenheimer\": https://www.metacritic.com/movie/oppenheimer/critic-reviews/.\n\nBy my count, it received a perfect score of 100 in 27 of these reviews.\n\n50% of 27 is 13.5. This is the threshold \"Dune: Part Two\" needs to surpass.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if within one month after release (April 1st), Metacritic has recorded 14 or more reviews for \"Dune: Part Two\" with the score of 100: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dune-part-two/ . If there are 13 or fewer reviews with the score of 100, it resolves NO. \n\nDetails:\n\nFor reference, Metacritic shows 68 reviews for \"Dune\" (2021). By my count, 8 of these reviews have a score of 100.\n\nI am not normalizing for the total number of reviews. All that matters is the total number recorded by Metacritic with a score of 100.\n\nI am allowing for a full month after release to give plenty of time for reviews to arrive. But occasionally a few reviews will appear on Metacritic more than a month after release. These will not be counted. \n\nIf any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask."}, {"id": "eBStsB7KhmM82FurhSnZ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707944087566, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707972600000, "question": "Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2024-02-15 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-db5e0c7bb5b4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-db5e0c7bb5b4", "pool": {"NO": 51, "YES": 43.09915109339505}, "probability": 0.13627486341947184, "p": 0.1176470588235294, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708032232383, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708032232645, "lastBetTime": 1707969614671, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-15 04:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-15 - 06:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=02&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=02&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lo331", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fff7d3de5c7a1.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-15 04:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-15 - 06:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:10\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "1x7KGECcqlXQRpxLtm0k", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1707681809560, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1710593700201, "question": "Will the highest temperature in NYC in Mar 15, 2024 be higher than the previous day?", "slug": "will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-8d4fdf0cce72", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-8d4fdf0cce72", "pool": {"NO": 11.07653712062529, "YES": 23965.1540538905}, "probability": 0.0002733613047171679, "p": 0.3717034902792524, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23818.16713126669, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710593700201, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710593700846, "lastBetTime": 1710593696812, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 15, 2024 is higher than the previous day ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F8891223097e8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["weather"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 15, 2024 is higher than the previous day \nResolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) \n\nHighest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report \nhttps://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 \n\nNote: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. \n"}, {"id": "iYj9RjR71fStauyxuT5B", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1711978944837, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1715354048862, "question": "Will \"Challengers\" (2024) have >86% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes?", "slug": "will-challengers-2024-have-86-criti", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-challengers-2024-have-86-criti", "pool": {"NO": 4094.6142042346964, "YES": 234.65549354028917}, "probability": 0.9897137126493702, "p": 0.8464850666654814, "totalLiquidity": 500, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7282.950196366783, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715354048862, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715354094807, "lastBetTime": 1715353849949, "lastCommentTime": 1715354093558, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Challengers\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2023", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "May 10th ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(two weeks after release).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ties resolve NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example: the Tomatometer for director Luca Guadagnino's earlier ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Call Me By Your Name\" is 94%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/call_me_by_your_name", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Challengers\" stars Zendaya, Josh O'Connor, & Mike Faist. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/AXEK7y1BuNQ", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["culture-default", "entertainment", "rotten-tomatoes", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "television-film", "movies", "politics-default", "boxoffice"], "textDescription": "\"Challengers\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2023\n\nI will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 10th (two weeks after release).\n\nDetails:\n\nI will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).\n\nExample: the Tomatometer for director Luca Guadagnino's earlier \"Call Me By Your Name\" is 94%. \n\n\"Challengers\" stars Zendaya, Josh O'Connor, & Mike Faist. \n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/AXEK7y1BuNQ)"}, {"id": "xPpXie1gjqBR5hYkoQvq", "creatorId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "creatorUsername": "_deleted_", "creatorName": "~deleted~", "createdTime": 1703612727210, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F_deleted_%2FHXynTRyz0d.jpg?alt=media&token=e921532c-19c1-4525-a1a2-5daa17ba2289", "closeTime": 1709452800000, "question": "Will GM Vladimir Kramnik's blog on chess.com be unmuted before March 2024?", "slug": "will-gm-vladimir-kramniks-blog-on-c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-gm-vladimir-kramniks-blog-on-c", "pool": {"NO": 109.85458543464485, "YES": 3595.1712467210423}, "probability": 0.01061150188052687, "p": 0.25980944244126725, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3341.718572276965, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710530763863, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710530764053, "lastBetTime": 1709394735915, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "His blog was muted because of his repeated insinuations of cheating towards a number of well respected players and acting in bad faith once it was shown that those players were likely not cheating.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/firstuserhere%2F25c8a62debde.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["chess"], "textDescription": "His blog was muted because of his repeated insinuations of cheating towards a number of well respected players and acting in bad faith once it was shown that those players were likely not cheating."}, {"id": "TdHcyOAvyAqmgwPXLNcV", "creatorId": "rubvHZCzGxclApIgRyZahOlCMQj2", "creatorUsername": "Guillaume", "creatorName": "Guillaume", "createdTime": 1702675963599, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGuillaume%2FPo5gz3ZIgW.50-k_dpmpp_2m?alt=media&token=2cdb3ff4-1a5d-4198-86d5-06b87835ab6b", "closeTime": 1702730643917, "question": "Is G\u00f6del incompletness theorem true ?", "slug": "is-godel-incompletness-theorem-true", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Guillaume/is-godel-incompletness-theorem-true", "pool": {"NO": 655.9508074384714, "YES": 343.3654306076894}, "probability": 0.954938945033296, "p": 0.9173093733782065, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 871.9391244523342, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702730643917, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "resolverId": "rubvHZCzGxclApIgRyZahOlCMQj2", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702706443121, "lastBetTime": 1702701340213, "lastCommentTime": 1702706442455, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "G\u00f6del's First Incompleteness Theorem:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This theorem states that in any consistent formal mathematical system that is expressive enough to formulate basic arithmetic, there exist true mathematical statements that cannot be proven within the system. In other words, there are truths within mathematics that cannot be deduced or demonstrated using the rules and axioms of that particular mathematical system.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It implies that there will always be mathematical truths that lie beyond the reach of formal proof within a given system.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Guillaume%2Fe16589f61cb2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["science-default", "mathematics", "theorem"], "textDescription": "G\u00f6del's First Incompleteness Theorem:\n\nThis theorem states that in any consistent formal mathematical system that is expressive enough to formulate basic arithmetic, there exist true mathematical statements that cannot be proven within the system. In other words, there are truths within mathematics that cannot be deduced or demonstrated using the rules and axioms of that particular mathematical system.\n\nIt implies that there will always be mathematical truths that lie beyond the reach of formal proof within a given system."}, {"id": "wIeMjPsLEiUPa342vB6G", "creatorId": "Mgyh0oxORxM6Eca1DUWcB1R4pf52", "creatorUsername": "DeathByTech", "creatorName": "DeathByTech", "createdTime": 1703275406337, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDeathByTech%2F6w4bQQKMDZ.jpeg?alt=media&token=ef640e16-9c3f-4cbe-9043-4e3a77d7c266", "closeTime": 1706763540000, "question": "Will Russia control avdiivka by the end of January 2024", "slug": "will-russia-control-avdiivka-by-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DeathByTech/will-russia-control-avdiivka-by-the", "pool": {"NO": 123.19387080697867, "YES": 3012.6180029809416}, "probability": 0.010843888024230652, "p": 0.21141034192360839, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4077.2987191542725, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706786442155, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Mgyh0oxORxM6Eca1DUWcB1R4pf52", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706786464302, "lastBetTime": 1706749700507, "lastCommentTime": 1706786459855, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "understandingwar.org", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://understandingwar.org", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be used to determine how this resolves", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes: if the Russian campaign offensive shows avdiivka up to near Sieverne and stepove as an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory before end of Jan 31st 2024 at midnight ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No: no otherwise", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/DeathByTech%2F4c484b58ff5b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "russia"], "textDescription": "understandingwar.org will be used to determine how this resolves\n\nYes: if the Russian campaign offensive shows avdiivka up to near Sieverne and stepove as an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory before end of Jan 31st 2024 at midnight \n\nNo: no otherwise"}, {"id": "iren7eDrrOWchb60NiNQ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706986085652, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707115500000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-02-05 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-e3b5e0c42649", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-e3b5e0c42649", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.13559322033898305, "p": 0.13559322033898305, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707167957700, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707167957923, "lastBetTime": 1706986093086, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-05 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-05 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=05", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=05", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Feb96fe3bbf1d.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-05 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-05 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "gPUUTzCe5zzgbjSdDDiZ", "creatorId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "creatorUsername": "mattyb", "creatorName": "Matty B", "createdTime": 1705498437481, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmattyb%2Feq8TCTaQW_.jpeg?alt=media&token=b8632c4a-5f41-4148-a6aa-3b42c0d89c03", "closeTime": 1707379140000, "question": "Will Disney+ Percy Jackson Season 1 be well liked?", "slug": "will-disney-percy-jackson-season-1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-disney-percy-jackson-season-1", "pool": {"NO": 115.85407556170391, "YES": 2297.3774447742667}, "probability": 0.011358208803323283, "p": 0.18554839560394765, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3225.4534901548345, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707396877734, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707396890250, "lastBetTime": 1707377756044, "lastCommentTime": 1707396889668, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One week after the Percy Jackson season finale has premiered, will the show still be rated ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "7.4 (or higher) on IMDb", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt12324366/?ref_=ext_shr_lnk", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " - currently 7.5?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first season has been really quite good so far, will Disney stick the landing on their newest Disney+ series?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mattyb%2F1562142bab97.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["television-film", "tv", "disney", "disney-6ead8e57808a", "reviews", "percy-jackson"], "textDescription": "One week after the Percy Jackson season finale has premiered, will the show still be rated 7.4 (or higher) on IMDb - currently 7.5?\n\nThe first season has been really quite good so far, will Disney stick the landing on their newest Disney+ series?"}, {"id": "an0H9eUgO5HeDLxMLJnK", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703083143914, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1704150000000, "question": "Will XLM close higher on January 1 than it closed on December 31?", "slug": "will-xlm-close-higher-on-january-1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-january-1", "pool": {"NO": 446.8596703669967, "YES": 107.01245366809822}, "probability": 0.8799999999999998, "p": 0.6371766308222678, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 341.3791317854967, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704155002549, "resolutionProbability": 0.88, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704155002745, "lastBetTime": 1704149574297, "lastCommentTime": 1704154996455, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2Fd1676ff0c961.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "116edOq9opISidsWozCR", "creatorId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "creatorUsername": "Fion", "creatorName": "Fion", "createdTime": 1714471655061, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FFion%2Ff0dUbpMbfK.webp?alt=media&token=a5756953-9fb6-4763-9c2e-6bc532e44aed", "closeTime": 1715010189641, "question": "Will there be a contest for the next SNP leader?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-contest-for-the-nex", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-there-be-a-contest-for-the-nex", "pool": {"NO": 14.383055725150086, "YES": 1724.2737476319192}, "probability": 0.01000000000000001, "p": 0.5477021134667452, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2186.0551216662366, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715010189641, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715010189641, "lastBetTime": 1715010138813, "lastCommentTime": 1715010164427, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The First Minister of Scotland and leader of the SNP, Humza Yousaf has resigned. So far, no candidates have officially put themselves forward. Pundits are speculating that there might just be a single candidate, rather than a contest requiring a vote by SNP members. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be such a contest? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet in this market. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "scotland", "scottish-politics"], "textDescription": "The First Minister of Scotland and leader of the SNP, Humza Yousaf has resigned. So far, no candidates have officially put themselves forward. Pundits are speculating that there might just be a single candidate, rather than a contest requiring a vote by SNP members. \n\nWill there be such a contest? \n\nI may bet in this market. "}, {"id": "7QmpcH2dZEYK89QxR5Fd", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1713331809904, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1716213593883, "question": "Will Red Lobster file for bankruptcy before the end of November?", "slug": "will-red-lobster-file-for-bankruptc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-red-lobster-file-for-bankruptc", "pool": {"NO": 4700.886316699458, "YES": 92.27138292050722}, "probability": 0.99, "p": 0.6602363283031475, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4560.200581713438, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716213593883, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 23, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716213593883, "lastBetTime": 1716213588959, "lastCommentTime": 1715739272647, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/red-lobster-mulls-filing-for-bankruptcy-to-fix-balance-sheet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/red-lobster-mulls-filing-for-bankruptcy-to-fix-balance-sheet", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FODgLOIDeSI.png?alt=media&token=b8e2b18c-a8fa-40b5-9aa2-f407c7a0a550", "title": null}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["bankruptcy", "food", "companies", "business", "culture-default"], "textDescription": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/red-lobster-mulls-filing-for-bankruptcy-to-fix-balance-sheet\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "lys1IUxz4lAY6r2szPjz", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703081742135, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703890800000, "question": "Will SOL close higher on December 29 than it closed on December 28?", "slug": "will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-26ad2d68ea6b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-26ad2d68ea6b", "pool": {"NO": 958.9201088371273, "YES": 113.82607677649938}, "probability": 0.9538671024039088, "p": 0.7105099290979382, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 790.3939092465044, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703904868132, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703904868459, "lastBetTime": 1703889574492, "lastCommentTime": 1703904862034, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "crypto-prices", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "UvQXxjSFL8PAS4ueAR6x", "creatorId": "RQh0iCqMFvPKnRWwTfEtnUxsiZu2", "creatorUsername": "rory", "creatorName": "Rory", "createdTime": 1707609460400, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Frory%2FUoeA-GfV4T.jpeg?alt=media&token=80004eaf-2397-43a9-8cf1-d1a4b8585b16", "closeTime": 1712846053358, "question": "Will Amazon CEO Andrew Jassy's 2023 compensation be greater than $1,298,723?", "slug": "will-amazon-ceo-andrew-jassys-2023", "url": "https://manifold.markets/rory/will-amazon-ceo-andrew-jassys-2023", "pool": {"NO": 866, "YES": 103.3151018229961}, "probability": 0.972932787402844, "p": 0.8109033364346256, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 696, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712846100677, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "resolverId": "RQh0iCqMFvPKnRWwTfEtnUxsiZu2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712846053358, "lastBetTime": 1712846007096, "lastCommentTime": 1707754420298, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the total pay for Andrew Jassy, as disclosed in the Summary Compensation Table of Amazon's 2024 proxy statement, is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "more than $1,298,723 for fiscal year 2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " then the market resolves to YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note on timing/potential approximate closing date; last year Amazon's proxy statement was released on April 13.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/rory%2Fb06f7e85f1d0.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "If the total pay for Andrew Jassy, as disclosed in the Summary Compensation Table of Amazon's 2024 proxy statement, is more than $1,298,723 for fiscal year 2023 then the market resolves to YES. \n\nNote on timing/potential approximate closing date; last year Amazon's proxy statement was released on April 13."}, {"id": "geoAAPVHgg9VUgl9WAOb", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1703199128627, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1704204000000, "question": "[Metaculus] Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?", "slug": "metaculus-will-there-be-a-us-milita", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-there-be-a-us-milita", "pool": {"NO": 151.0585413906897, "YES": 3604.6875634526177}, "probability": 0.007199922822510488, "p": 0.14752627659649423, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3902.9090382032364, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704313440445, "resolverId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704313440685, "lastBetTime": 1704190508134, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20739/us-military-death-in-red-sea-before-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20739/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, after December 20, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a member of the US military has been killed in the Red Sea due to an attack.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20739/us-military-death-in-red-sea-before-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mirrorbot%2F9ad35cef37f8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus"], "textDescription": "Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20739/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, after December 20, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a member of the US military has been killed in the Red Sea due to an attack.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues."}, {"id": "VY64KaHdsrMkPLmQoKig", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1705631156173, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714622389950, "question": "Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on May 01, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?", "slug": "will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-e77c463d2e39", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-e77c463d2e39", "pool": {"NO": 28.491225617925803, "YES": 3967.3975346715365}, "probability": 0.005786661014328057, "p": 0.44766071098885546, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4556.099693076015, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714660762958, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714622389950, "lastBetTime": 1714596141590, "lastCommentTime": 1714660673640, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on May 01, 2024 compared to the previous trading day. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2Ff1bb3d2dc9bb.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on May 01, 2024 compared to the previous trading day. \nResolves to No otherwise.\n\nResolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data \nhttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX"}, {"id": "0jYX8dPNFhYiHcE1jIM1", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1707007749386, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709269260560, "question": "Will there be more than 16,400 Starbucks stores in the US at the end of Feb 2024?", "slug": "will-there-be-more-than-16400-starb", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-there-be-more-than-16400-starb", "pool": {"NO": 56735.81597156071, "YES": 18.34261366607825}, "probability": 0.9998786008562642, "p": 0.726983456519641, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 57567.065980247804, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709269260560, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709269262277, "lastBetTime": 1709269257352, "lastCommentTime": 1709269249314, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution according to the numbers provided by Scrapehero", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.scrapehero.com/location-reports/Starbucks-USA/#:~:text=How%20can%20I%20download%20a,hours%20from%20our%20data%20store", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.scrapehero.com/location-reports/Starbucks-USA/#:~:text=How%20can%20I%20download%20a,hours%20from%20our%20data%20store", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will review this webpage at the end of the month and use the number of stores reported at that time as the resolution number. Note that these numbers could be several weeks old, depending on when the latest update occurred.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F40ab513ae559.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["brands", "mcdonalds", "restaurants"], "textDescription": "\nResolution according to the numbers provided by Scrapehero\nhttps://www.scrapehero.com/location-reports/Starbucks-USA/#:~:text=How%20can%20I%20download%20a,hours%20from%20our%20data%20store.\n\nI will review this webpage at the end of the month and use the number of stores reported at that time as the resolution number. Note that these numbers could be several weeks old, depending on when the latest update occurred."}, {"id": "bzmyGjrZ01yMbHmQxmAq", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1704975472797, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1705436665219, "question": "[Metaculus] Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?", "slug": "metaculus-will-nikki-haley-finish-2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-nikki-haley-finish-2", "pool": {"NO": 159.10080840934248, "YES": 24944.254896846604}, "probability": 0.00104157260623814, "p": 0.140502736251924, "totalLiquidity": 790, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 34852.754498118156, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705436665219, "resolverId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "uniqueBettorCount": 40, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705436665891, "lastBetTime": 1705436270204, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21005/nikki-haley-2nd-in-the-iowa-caucuses/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21005/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if Nikki Haley wins the second-most ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "bound delegates", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apnews.com/article/how-iowa-caucus-works-2024-democrats-republicans-592ab40b9b9b948c0540f2cf132bab5c", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses, according to credible reports.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21005/nikki-haley-2nd-in-the-iowa-caucuses/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mirrorbot%2Fafe21ca71f4b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus", "2024-us-presidential-election", "nikki-haley", "magaland", "2024-republican-primaries"], "textDescription": "Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21005/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThe question will resolve Yes if Nikki Haley wins the second-most bound delegates in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses, according to credible reports.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues."}, {"id": "N6dNH5fYZmc6SOXpgP6X", "creatorId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "creatorUsername": "StopPunting", "creatorName": "Stop Punting", "createdTime": 1704736765765, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FStoppunting%2FU_8wwZ-g5O.jpg?alt=media&token=c92d2477-27aa-4e8b-9dd4-50d1db23bb5f", "closeTime": 1705294740000, "question": "2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: Claudia Sheinbaum elected President of Mexico", "slug": "2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-0555d8210285", "url": "https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-0555d8210285", "pool": {"NO": 155.00000000000003, "YES": 60.38149085447062}, "probability": 0.8085348688745183, "p": 0.6219364455637398, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 65, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717420724735, "resolutionProbability": 0.81, "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705294740000, "lastBetTime": 1704763970630, "lastCommentTime": 1709142035291, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "A time-sensitive copy of this market:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/RodrigoMorales/will-claudia-sheinbaum-win-the-mexi", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "This market closes on 1/14/2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias' at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Why not just use the percentage that day from the original market (since this could just be seen as an arb)?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " It creates urgency/a deadline for an actual prediction, its possible bettors are just trying to ride waves for profit, while also potentially drawing early interest/bettors to the topic that might have waited to bet until later.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "B.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " It will be easier for me to compile later to reference the markets.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "C.) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The market will close on 1/14 so it won't be clogging anything up market listings with redundancy for long.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "D.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " It might actually be interesting to see if the markets are Arb'd on 1/14.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Even though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Matt predicts 70% for this question", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Matt's calibration for reference:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F03Evzjc9l4.png?alt=media&token=2d2f6ff3-892b-478f-b497-3d255252a778", "title": null}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/StopPunting%2F5a2b016c5fc1.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["mexican-politics", "2024-matt-yglesias-predictions", "politics-default", "elections", "mexico", "elections-world"], "textDescription": "A time-sensitive copy of this market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/RodrigoMorales/will-claudia-sheinbaum-win-the-mexi)This market closes on 1/14/2024.\n\nThis is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias' at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.\n\nWhy not just use the percentage that day from the original market (since this could just be seen as an arb)?\n\nA.) It creates urgency/a deadline for an actual prediction, its possible bettors are just trying to ride waves for profit, while also potentially drawing early interest/bettors to the topic that might have waited to bet until later.\nB.) It will be easier for me to compile later to reference the markets.\nC.) The market will close on 1/14 so it won't be clogging anything up market listings with redundancy for long.\nD.) It might actually be interesting to see if the markets are Arb'd on 1/14.\n\nEven though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.\n\nMatt predicts 70% for this question\n\nhttps://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions\n\nMatt's calibration for reference:\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "aNdY8rM367tpitq0cNGz", "creatorId": "bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52", "creatorUsername": "GoncaloM", "creatorName": "Gon\u00e7alo M", "createdTime": 1704724299859, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdtRkT2LCncUT9PVlZ18slyb_JQHvRVem9W57YLGpj8r7CQ=s96-c", "closeTime": 1705094096304, "question": "Will AMD's (NASDAQ Ticker: $AMD) stock price close above $138.58 per share on January 12, 2024?", "slug": "will-amds-nasdaq-ticker-amd-stock-p-7b76673b1dcf", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GoncaloM/will-amds-nasdaq-ticker-amd-stock-p-7b76673b1dcf", "pool": {"NO": 1340.1487174239558, "YES": 191.89604580856334}, "probability": 0.9761512363939574, "p": 0.8542465157354097, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2463.4105040890595, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705094096304, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705094097214, "lastBetTime": 1705079471823, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if AMD's stock closes above $138.58 USD on the closing price of 12 of January, 2024. Any moves above $138.58 USD during the week will not count towards this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/GoncaloM%2F6386eff10221.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["gpu", "tech-stocks", "amd", "stocks", "technology-default", "wall-street-bets"], "textDescription": "Will resolve YES if AMD's stock closes above $138.58 USD on the closing price of 12 of January, 2024. Any moves above $138.58 USD during the week will not count towards this market.\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ"}, {"id": "Qyj1BhEj8eFvKXEdzvjg", "creatorId": "iTQO3gSfwWeu1D70TyOxP5x4r3f1", "creatorUsername": "MickBransfield", "creatorName": "Mick Bransfield", "createdTime": 1711678406819, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7wtbRzM8LxtnW8APyehAwWYjCwYtgGP9I_hQ5S=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714535940000, "question": "Will Adeel Mangi be confirmed by the U.S. Senate before May 1st?", "slug": "will-adeel-mangi-be-confirmed-by-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MickBransfield/will-adeel-mangi-be-confirmed-by-th", "pool": {"NO": 179.635544139045, "YES": 3632.048293327511}, "probability": 0.03031712742686369, "p": 0.3873098616636718, "totalLiquidity": 607.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3502.274089846726, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714564006089, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "iTQO3gSfwWeu1D70TyOxP5x4r3f1", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714535940000, "lastBetTime": 1714500752525, "lastCommentTime": 1712792435959, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Adeel A. Mangi be confirmed by the full U.S. Senate as a U.S. Circuit Judge for the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in New Jersey before May 1, 2024?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "President Joe Biden nominated Adeel Mangi to be the first Muslim American judge on a federal appeals court.  Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority (including caucusing independents) in the U.S. Senate, but Democratic Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), and Joe Manchin III (D-W", "type": "text"}, {"text": ".", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://D-W.Va", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "Va.) have all said they will not vote for Mangi.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If Mangi is confirmed for this judgeship by midnight ET on April 30, 2024, then the market will resolve YES. \u00a0Otherwise it will resolve NO. \u00a0If he is confirmed May 1, 2024, or later, the market will still resolve NO. \u00a0If his nomination is withdrawn, the market will resolve NO. \u00a0If no action is taken by the U.S. Senate before May 1, 2024, then the market will resolve NO. \u00a0", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will not resolve as a percentage under any circumstances. The market creator will not trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Ballotpedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ballotpedia.org/Adeel_Mangi", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "US Senate panel narrowly advances Muslim federal appellate court nominee", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-senate-panel-narrowly-advances-muslim-federal-appellate-court-nominee-2024-01-18/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "With 3rd Democratic senator opposed, Biden judicial nominee in jeopardy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/28/adeel-mangi-judicial-nominee-biden/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["us-judiciary", "us-senate", "us-politics"], "textDescription": "Will Adeel A. Mangi be confirmed by the full U.S. Senate as a U.S. Circuit Judge for the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in New Jersey before May 1, 2024?\n\nPresident Joe Biden nominated Adeel Mangi to be the first Muslim American judge on a federal appeals court.  Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority (including caucusing independents) in the U.S. Senate, but Democratic Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), and Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) have all said they will not vote for Mangi.\n\nIf Mangi is confirmed for this judgeship by midnight ET on April 30, 2024, then the market will resolve YES. \u00a0Otherwise it will resolve NO. \u00a0If he is confirmed May 1, 2024, or later, the market will still resolve NO. \u00a0If his nomination is withdrawn, the market will resolve NO. \u00a0If no action is taken by the U.S. Senate before May 1, 2024, then the market will resolve NO. \u00a0\n\nThis market will not resolve as a percentage under any circumstances. The market creator will not trade in this market.\n\nBackground:\n\nBallotpedia\nUS Senate panel narrowly advances Muslim federal appellate court nominee\nWith 3rd Democratic senator opposed, Biden judicial nominee in jeopardy\n"}, {"id": "bdSZKuJ5m2e7wzGjmHXz", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1703285604608, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1704327830691, "question": "[Kalshi] Will an eligible natural disaster affect St. Louis?", "slug": "kalshi-will-an-eligible-natural-dis-d0e9bca38998", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/kalshi-will-an-eligible-natural-dis-d0e9bca38998", "pool": {"NO": 66.40867938608469, "YES": 291.305166052245}, "probability": 0.06458506413523968, "p": 0.23246161134451065, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 298.6948339477549, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704327830691, "resolverId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704327831472, "lastBetTime": 1703521295421, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will an eligible natural disaster affect St. Louis?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Kalshi", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://kalshi.com/markets/EMERGENCYSTL#EMERGENCYSTL-23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a hurricane of 96 mph is recorded at St. Louis, Missouri; a tornado, flood, or flash flood warning is issued; or an earthquake of at least magnitude 5 occurs 50 miles away, then the market resolves to Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution sources", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LSX&product=CLI&issuedby=STL", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LSX&product=CLI&issuedby=STL", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mirrorbot%2F1c4005019899.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["kalshi"], "textDescription": "Will an eligible natural disaster affect St. Louis?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Kalshi.\n\nResolution criteria\n\nIf a hurricane of 96 mph is recorded at St. Louis, Missouri; a tornado, flood, or flash flood warning is issued; or an earthquake of at least magnitude 5 occurs 50 miles away, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nResolution sources\n\nhttps://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LSX&product=CLI&issuedby=STL\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues."}, {"id": "kJnAv41rOsngjebl66f6", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707944160664, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708174800000, "question": "Will flight AF 1781 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-17 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-0fc0518b13f8", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-0fc0518b13f8", "pool": {"NO": 64.61491196059958, "YES": 93.66070684060237}, "probability": 0.15120556189325882, "p": 0.2052264454804614, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 28, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708258608608, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708258609490, "lastBetTime": 1708159792688, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-17 13:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-17 - 15:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a016:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=17", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=17", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1781", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F60e25f32bbbe.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-17 13:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-17 - 15:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a016:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "luZpDm5z70GQM0rcZnBb", "creatorId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "creatorUsername": "PunishedFurry", "creatorName": "Punished Furry", "createdTime": 1708138411778, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1708880819837, "question": "Will Vaush's main youtube channel fall below 455k subs by the end of February 2024?", "slug": "will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-526bba7e370c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-526bba7e370c", "pool": {"NO": 10388.153501559635, "YES": 146.54527983714945}, "probability": 0.9964731997550269, "p": 0.7994313916184187, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12263.59862847991, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1708880819837, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218374276, "lastBetTime": 1708880800069, "lastCommentTime": 1708880810125, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ever since Vaush's nsfw folder got leaked, he has been losing subs on his youtube channel.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FEOyg-Lw6uw.png?alt=media&token=659dfb7c-ed53-4a84-92dd-e49561309274", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Summary:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/mDbDIrOG0ak", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With h3h3 doing 3 coverages on him, Vaush's subs have tanked even further.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "h3h3 1st coverage", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H61pA1ZPTs8", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "h3h3 2nd coverage", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uf6JFPY0g2Y", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "h3h3 3rd coverage", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjKye-weNxw", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Vaush's main youtube channel go below 455k subs at any point by the end of February 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-332a744ca0ea", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/PunishedFurry%2Ffc0aa05cca7b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "youtube", "subscriber-milestones"], "textDescription": "Ever since Vaush's nsfw folder got leaked, he has been losing subs on his youtube channel.\n\n\n[image]Summary:\n\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/mDbDIrOG0ak)With h3h3 doing 3 coverages on him, Vaush's subs have tanked even further.\n\n1) h3h3 1st coverage\n\n2) h3h3 2nd coverage\n\n3) h3h3 3rd coverage\n\nWill Vaush's main youtube channel go below 455k subs at any point by the end of February 2024?\n\nhttps://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_\n\nRelated Market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-332a744ca0ea)"}, {"id": "TO1EsTL8boNCeean6YKe", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1703085423430, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703218528639, "question": "Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the New Orleans Saints in their Week 16 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-los-angeles-rams-beat-the-18a7b04d023d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-los-angeles-rams-beat-the-18a7b04d023d", "pool": {"NO": 2670.494154754153, "YES": 69.97447713712805}, "probability": 0.9923426491546996, "p": 0.7725056871425205, "totalLiquidity": 267.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11367.220348821702, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703218611701, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703218314423, "lastBetTime": 1703218314292, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Rams win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Saints win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/RJPerez%2F2a531793e562.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["new-orleans-saints", "football", "los-angeles-rams", "nfl", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "Yes - Rams win\n\nNo - Saints win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "BPq0n1xYBb35DFjzC7eN", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704116645784, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704296100000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-01-03 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-4d583494c86a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-4d583494c86a", "pool": {"NO": 64.35427713102648, "YES": 130.5855947417174}, "probability": 0.05708519883762498, "p": 0.10940769275878326, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 57.217823833661974, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704352352038, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704352352329, "lastBetTime": 1704295455248, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-03 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-03 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=03", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=03", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F14b8f25334fa.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-03 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-03 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "woIJfuks5XsMYnmuyZPf", "creatorId": "D9GnaZnjOwgEQIcaE82Sfkxk3KN2", "creatorUsername": "Ellis", "creatorName": "LS", "createdTime": 1715314405044, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FEllis%2FUvgKMjEN9G.svg?alt=media&token=ca7c29eb-f267-4de4-8dc4-3cc14a8bceb7", "closeTime": 1716004740000, "question": "Will OpenAI *release* a search competitor to Google / Perplexity by May 17, 2024?", "slug": "will-openai-release-a-search-compet-0e9608ec5137", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet-0e9608ec5137", "pool": {"NO": 32.23986610236539, "YES": 2098.761326768924}, "probability": 0.011472734937567319, "p": 0.4303694325127182, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10802.61850180632, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1716005716558, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "D9GnaZnjOwgEQIcaE82Sfkxk3KN2", "uniqueBettorCount": 95, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716004740000, "lastBetTime": 1715991900149, "lastCommentTime": 1715724340786, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1787331421964804324", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1787331421964804324", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves Yes if a new standalone search engine product is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "released", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "  --- meaning it is accessible to the public whether free or paid.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"A mere extension to the existing ChatGPT product allowing it internet access\" would not count for the purposes of this market. The product should emphasize web search as its primary feature; it should not just be a secondary feature of OpenAI's current ChatGPT / GPT-4 product.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See related question on if a search product will be ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announced", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet?r=RWxsaXM", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ellis/74890d899a90.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["openai", "technology-default", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines"], "textDescription": "https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1787331421964804324\n\nThis market resolves Yes if a new standalone search engine product is released  --- meaning it is accessible to the public whether free or paid.\n\n\"A mere extension to the existing ChatGPT product allowing it internet access\" would not count for the purposes of this market. The product should emphasize web search as its primary feature; it should not just be a secondary feature of OpenAI's current ChatGPT / GPT-4 product.\n\nSee related question on if a search product will be announced\nhttps://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet"}, {"id": "sRPTcEOF99x3sd27BsD8", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1702665397475, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1702929600000, "question": "Will Walmart close higher Dec 18 than Dec 11? (WMT Weekly)", "slug": "will-walmart-close-higher-dec-18-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-walmart-close-higher-dec-18-th", "pool": {"NO": 1640.285353142686, "YES": 75.85092049625335}, "probability": 0.9853846921022906, "p": 0.7571480829363343, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1699.156303657963, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702938198530, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702938195342, "lastBetTime": 1702920417348, "lastCommentTime": 1702938193977, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WMT closes at 4pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes 1 hour earlier", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close Price: 151.24", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=walmart+stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Investing Historical ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investing.com/equities/wal-mart-stores-historical-data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investing.com/equities/costco-whsl-corp-new-historical-data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stock-marketweekly", "sccsq4", "economics-default", "finance", "stocks", "walmart", "wmt"], "textDescription": "WMT closes at 4pm EST.\n\nThis market closes 1 hour earlier\n\nPrevious Close Price: 151.24\n\nThis market will be resolved based on Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "8Hl4A2jvZNSapS87Ugou", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706390060697, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706559900000, "question": "Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-01-29 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-6e36fcddd0f3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-6e36fcddd0f3", "pool": {"NO": 64.55392853208487, "YES": 109}, "probability": 0.09100923501048938, "p": 0.14460876284610097, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 39, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706594625012, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706594625218, "lastBetTime": 1706551648141, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-29 20:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-29 - 22:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 06:45", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=01&date=29", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=01&date=29", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af333", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F1115a6532022.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-29 20:25 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-29 - 22:25 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 06:45\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "cDwSg3yujUcaOeRFFhrU", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1713491337019, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1714100208807, "question": "Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within one week of being attacked by them?", "slug": "will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-906f3c939b73", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-906f3c939b73", "pool": {"NO": 503.25553307214955, "YES": 13490.452787455588}, "probability": 0.009999999999999995, "p": 0.21307639721528793, "totalLiquidity": 1120, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 24469.67417297294, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714100208807, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 59, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714100208807, "lastBetTime": 1714098109399, "lastCommentTime": 1713878418034, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "M5kPbpOc7P6lARfawFMS", "label": "/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-97077e4e70ad"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "q5g9CTDHJXYUa7ds04sj", "label": "/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using similar criteria as Metaculus", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, following the date of this question's publication and before close, credible reports indicate an attack attributed to Iran occurring within Israel's borders. The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "map", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "internal waters and territorial sea", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "iran", "israel", "geopolitics", "wars"], "textDescription": "@/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-97077e4e70ad \n\n@/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi \n\nUsing similar criteria as Metaculus\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before close, credible reports indicate an attack attributed to Iran occurring within Israel's borders. The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve Yes:\n\nOccur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's map covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n\nIran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n\nThe attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question."}, {"id": "ylcxgtKQFcxKZDkmAHuv", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1708726962943, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1708974212674, "question": "Will Pfizer OPEN higher than 27.76 on February 26?", "slug": "will-pfizer-open-higher-than-2776-o", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-pfizer-open-higher-than-2776-o", "pool": {"NO": 80.74777228453786, "YES": 2867.9402738916083}, "probability": 0.0032196274743035505, "p": 0.10291513109516724, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3759.299744652422, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708974212674, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708974213223, "lastBetTime": 1708974020173, "lastCommentTime": 1708974207992, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pfizer Inc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Open Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=PFE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "PFE opens at 9:30am EST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock opens higher than 27.76", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock opens lower.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "50% ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock opens flat.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F8aef7612bd79.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "medicine", "stock-marketweekly", "stocks-league-beta", "keen-stocks", "stocks", "technology-default", "science-default", "world-default", "finance"], "textDescription": "Pfizer Inc\n\nResolves according to Google Open Price\n\nPFE opens at 9:30am EST\n\nResolves YES if stock opens higher than 27.76\n\nResolves NO if stock opens lower.\n\nResolves 50% if stock opens flat.\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "EDSOJmyOVyTyWciuHaVG", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705151053389, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1705217700000, "question": "Will flight DL 225 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-01-14 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-fac92a8400df", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-fac92a8400df", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.08196721311475409, "p": 0.08196721311475409, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705393334211, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705393334526, "lastBetTime": 1705151058548, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 225 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-14 07:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-14 - 09:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/225?year=2024&month=01&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/225?year=2024&month=01&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl225", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F8ac27c984332.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 225 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-14 07:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-14 - 09:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "9ZX5BhIsLmdmxqFIoTHH", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1708424699747, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708683300000, "question": "Will flight AF 1780 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-23 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-ae5c1bd05550", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-ae5c1bd05550", "pool": {"NO": 67.02305320375277, "YES": 83.4811218250663}, "probability": 0.15999999999999995, "p": 0.1917553906775257, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21.167258569005615, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708769428468, "resolutionProbability": 0.16, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708769428771, "lastBetTime": 1708529603781, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-23 10:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-23 - 12:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=02&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=02&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1780", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F59ad0dfc31fc.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-23 10:15 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-23 - 12:15 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "cWgXwUcbVuXBAlGKBtZI", "creatorId": "RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1", "creatorUsername": "kurt", "creatorName": "fish", "createdTime": 1705773662239, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fkurt%2FANF2sWHbu1.jpeg?alt=media&token=865faba8-0400-4d5a-8ea6-9b4d3d6f8834", "closeTime": 1705797442413, "question": "Will Lamar Jackson account for more points himself (passing, rushing, receiving) than the entire Houston Texans offense?", "slug": "will-lamar-jackson-account-for-more", "url": "https://manifold.markets/kurt/will-lamar-jackson-account-for-more", "pool": {"NO": 2146.1023927311453, "YES": 37.69173131616243}, "probability": 0.9948736658619455, "p": 0.773162800183766, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2622.997049944122, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705797442413, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705797443732, "lastBetTime": 1705796246522, "lastCommentTime": 1705796292627, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Divisional Round game 1/20/24:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "6 pts for touchdowns thrown, received, or rushed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Extra points do not count for Lamar unless its a 2PT conversion.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Extra points and field goals do count for Houston.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Safeties, defensive, and kick return scores do not count for Houston (although Extra points off of defensive/special teams TDs do)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/kurt%2F620156303030.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nfl", "baltimore-ravens", "houston-texans", "nfl-playoffs"], "textDescription": "Divisional Round game 1/20/24:\n6 pts for touchdowns thrown, received, or rushed.\n\nExtra points do not count for Lamar unless its a 2PT conversion.\nExtra points and field goals do count for Houston.\nSafeties, defensive, and kick return scores do not count for Houston (although Extra points off of defensive/special teams TDs do)"}, {"id": "tRxq6j8cjRzAIBDrFyhO", "creatorId": "a8yV3p3gEWWMPFYr3quuLFZ5tR43", "creatorUsername": "awaitepawana", "creatorName": "awaitepawana", "createdTime": 1709765441282, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJylRjnDR-SK-6NPk4hqEV_MKwKvtucrajUwkRrklq=s96-c", "closeTime": 1711034537835, "question": "Will the Department of Justice sue Apple for antitrust violations before Easter Sunday?", "slug": "will-the-department-of-justice-sue", "url": "https://manifold.markets/awaitepawana/will-the-department-of-justice-sue", "pool": {"NO": 602.9227063704775, "YES": 121.3501524150559}, "probability": 0.9234377207685551, "p": 0.7082479658694679, "totalLiquidity": 240, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 435, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711034559860, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "resolverId": "a8yV3p3gEWWMPFYr3quuLFZ5tR43", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711034537835, "lastBetTime": 1711033374005, "lastCommentTime": 1710788276377, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the suit is formally announced on or before March 30th, resolves yes.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["legal-decisions", "law", "lawsuits"], "textDescription": "If the suit is formally announced on or before March 30th, resolves yes."}, {"id": "4kgpLby6TpP88tytu6CB", "creatorId": "vZhGI53MBwOaUUUOv8KCX5TQBOq2", "creatorUsername": "SpeaksForTrees", "creatorName": "SpeaksForTrees", "createdTime": 1706913797335, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSequoiaTree%2FhpLJaTqv71.png?alt=media&token=38df0e98-14a2-445a-9f4c-2179b37ecaeb", "closeTime": 1712289540000, "question": "Will the March unemployment rate be 3.8% or above?", "slug": "will-the-march-unemployment-rate-be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SpeaksForTrees/will-the-march-unemployment-rate-be", "pool": {"NO": 1770.8902254942047, "YES": 311.99403074132454}, "probability": 0.8985253146359183, "p": 0.60937645221613, "totalLiquidity": 690, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2085.0022786013956, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712347666589, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "resolverId": "vZhGI53MBwOaUUUOv8KCX5TQBOq2", "uniqueBettorCount": 36, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714745784482, "lastBetTime": 1712272952512, "lastCommentTime": 1712347655084, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The United States civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). When the data is released during the first week of April, this will resolve YES if unemployment is 3.8% (inclusive) or above, and NO if it is below 3.8%.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SpeaksForTrees%2Ffa4b186b1eaf.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "us-politics"], "textDescription": "The United States civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). When the data is released during the first week of April, this will resolve YES if unemployment is 3.8% (inclusive) or above, and NO if it is below 3.8%."}, {"id": "MqHS2zRDnWyqYjh7iGfA", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1708424584709, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708497900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-02-21 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-64df220add4b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-64df220add4b", "pool": {"NO": 62.04117035985062, "YES": 171}, "probability": 0.04184591021392936, "p": 0.1074411504583213, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 101, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708551986513, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708551986890, "lastBetTime": 1708492850995, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-21 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-21 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=21", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=21", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fbbe5cf33ebc7.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-21 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-21 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "VSqNbinGeqAsE19EdbxV", "creatorId": "d9FHkgSum6VtJACCnZXoH6AbOlZ2", "creatorUsername": "lazy", "creatorName": "lazy", "createdTime": 1710603524270, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flazy%2Fn-cJ25i5Lx.jpeg?alt=media&token=8f0ceef3-6a34-4708-87c5-5e0e1e87c2d7", "closeTime": 1710855000000, "question": "Is Lucci KO'd, or will the fight still continue in Chapter 1111?", "slug": "is-lucci-kod-or-will-the-fight-stil", "url": "https://manifold.markets/lazy/is-lucci-kod-or-will-the-fight-stil", "pool": {"NO": 781.275172573049, "YES": 177.58943646698557}, "probability": 0.9142575291153634, "p": 0.7079215684645604, "totalLiquidity": 300, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 628.8183957436735, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711012618130, "resolutionProbability": 0.91, "resolverId": "d9FHkgSum6VtJACCnZXoH6AbOlZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710855000000, "lastBetTime": 1710853274097, "lastCommentTime": 1710865423287, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Choose Yes if Lucci is out of the game or isn't even shown in ch 1111.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Choose No if Lucci is still standing up and continues to fight in ch 1111.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will be closed when the spoilers are out.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["one-piece-stocks"], "textDescription": "Choose Yes if Lucci is out of the game or isn't even shown in ch 1111.\nChoose No if Lucci is still standing up and continues to fight in ch 1111.\n\nWill be closed when the spoilers are out."}, {"id": "JykSeEap5nNif9sXit8A", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703081739083, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703718000000, "question": "Will SOL close higher on December 27 than it closed on December 26?", "slug": "will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-d642f3480929", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-d642f3480929", "pool": {"NO": 66.11514376178853, "YES": 413.8374569180669}, "probability": 0.14000000000000012, "p": 0.5046962342761605, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 423.40935526680204, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703734657788, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703734658131, "lastBetTime": 1703717976613, "lastCommentTime": 1703734651176, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F2d94d556301b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "hawsbollah", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "yqFXqkxJe0ou8uycfgBk", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703412202319, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703672400000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2023-12-27 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-a1b20759afdf", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-a1b20759afdf", "pool": {"NO": 68.79795915720655, "YES": 74.99999999999997}, "probability": 0.1846906052420257, "p": 0.19804287268300017, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703709885257, "resolutionProbability": 0.18, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703709885497, "lastBetTime": 1703670027928, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-27 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-27 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=27", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=27", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F066946be596e.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-27 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-27 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "TQ2Ef3dIJUsF0WcYjQPg", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1702906503364, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703067600000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2023-12-20 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-cc2553ab367f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-cc2553ab367f", "pool": {"NO": 88.90194284529194, "YES": 94.99999999999994}, "probability": 0.1739180923019796, "p": 0.1836567213342497, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703167894288, "resolutionProbability": 0.17, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703024886916, "lastBetTime": 1703024886743, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-20 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-20 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=20", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=20", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F77b2863be39a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-20 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-20 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "qs7SHbbmiEGOVB5RP8Bo", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1708424732600, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708702500000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-23 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-dfdf633a158f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-dfdf633a158f", "pool": {"NO": 111.75546950832326, "YES": 96.54764432105095}, "probability": 0.1387839806417861, "p": 0.1222060527598532, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 38, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708769409981, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708769410340, "lastBetTime": 1708699767239, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-23 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-23 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fba1e927f99c0.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-23 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-23 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "WqapmkDtxt445ZOyWLqx", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1708125424864, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1708718400000, "question": "Will Tesla close higher than 199.95 on February 23?", "slug": "will-tesla-close-higher-than-19995", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-tesla-close-higher-than-19995", "pool": {"NO": 135.93908406486534, "YES": 1435.045077511372}, "probability": 0.020206577230380406, "p": 0.17878676939613217, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1527.3707738345993, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708726415019, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710451929835, "lastBetTime": 1708716428050, "lastCommentTime": 1708726410095, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tesla Inc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=TSLA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TSLA closes at 4pm EST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " 3pm EST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes higher than 199.95.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock closes lower.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "50% ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes flat.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F4b0e6649b0a3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "entertainment", "economics-default", "stocks", "finance", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tesla", "keen-stocks", "stocks-league-beta"], "textDescription": "Tesla Inc\n\nResolves according to Google Close Price\n\nTSLA closes at 4pm EST\n\nThis market closes at 3pm EST\n\nResolves YES if stock closes higher than 199.95.\n\nResolves NO if stock closes lower.\n\nResolves 50% if stock closes flat.\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "qIZ6DpHyZRChNbzMV8NI", "creatorId": "Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2", "creatorUsername": "Orca", "creatorName": "Orcatron", "createdTime": 1702627368856, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703457900000, "question": "NFL\ud83c\udfc8: Week 16: Will the Arizona Cardinals win their NFL Game against the Chicago Bears on 12/24?", "slug": "nfl-week-16-will-the-arizona-cardin", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-16-will-the-arizona-cardin", "pool": {"NO": 85.33193837555169, "YES": 582.2727875999752}, "probability": 0.08000000000000008, "p": 0.37239478265467224, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1043.3489365670582, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703464113952, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206776587, "lastBetTime": 1703457246701, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am doing some experimentation on how to setup this market correctly. Feedback is appreciated.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am going to close this market ~ an hour after the KICKOFF TIME, Will resolve it after the Game Closes. I am doing this to prevent market trading based on actual events in the later part of the game. Let me know what you think.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So this market will close on 12/24 @ 2:45 PM PACIFIC TIME.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Orca%2F22b2393e1d53.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["football", "nfl", "chicago-bears", "arizona-cardinals"], "textDescription": "I am doing some experimentation on how to setup this market correctly. Feedback is appreciated.\n\nI am going to close this market ~ an hour after the KICKOFF TIME, Will resolve it after the Game Closes. I am doing this to prevent market trading based on actual events in the later part of the game. Let me know what you think.\n\nSo this market will close on 12/24 @ 2:45 PM PACIFIC TIME."}, {"id": "gDvsOS1V3MeqzpIHMg7I", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704396247952, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704583200000, "question": "Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-01-07 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-9ecd6bf29516", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-9ecd6bf29516", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.06557377049180327, "p": 0.06557377049180328, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704705161543, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704705161755, "lastBetTime": 1704396253308, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-06 23:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-07 - 01:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 07:10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2024&month=01&date=07", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2024&month=01&date=07", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl224", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fe92f97cc43b3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-06 23:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-07 - 01:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 07:10\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "XEYKh5UOY5rVrBfOTcPQ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1708424688744, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708596900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1780 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-22 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-b9bf00d0024e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-b9bf00d0024e", "pool": {"NO": 67.7099665966853, "YES": 80}, "probability": 0.16976019925956362, "p": 0.1945778079027381, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708634999219, "resolutionProbability": 0.17, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708634999447, "lastBetTime": 1708443862818, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-22 10:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-22 - 12:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=02&date=22", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=02&date=22", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1780", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Ff52abb31ff93.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-22 10:15 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-22 - 12:15 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "6kMm5mOp1E2EX16k0G1S", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1702608311788, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1715105125485, "question": "Will NYC have Used at least 115 gallons per person per day in 2023?", "slug": "will-nyc-use-more-than-115-gallons", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-nyc-use-more-than-115-gallons", "pool": {"NO": 28.730514137792106, "YES": 483.0504421480604}, "probability": 0.09000000000001093, "p": 0.6244609614109636, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 132.5444397622005, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715105125485, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715105125485, "lastBetTime": 1715105122043, "lastCommentTime": 1702608521369, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Info: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Environment/Water-Consumption-in-the-City-of-New-York/ia2d-e54m", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Environment/Water-Consumption-in-the-City-of-New-York/ia2d-e54m", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FXmS68y0XJA.png?alt=media&token=71024458-aac1-4df1-9c99-cf13fc998218", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/strutheo%2F9e1eff752dce.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["water", "nyc", "manhattan", "environment-243810591da2", "urbanism", "population"], "textDescription": "Info: https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Environment/Water-Consumption-in-the-City-of-New-York/ia2d-e54m\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "jzLtx3FpFLAfwTOl5vjC", "creatorId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "creatorUsername": "OllieG", "creatorName": "Ollie G", "createdTime": 1706119685779, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdz4Yj3np666O_tJ0KIuoQIaeWb8QVEZmqKi9uN0kvKDak=s96-c", "closeTime": 1710427010641, "question": "Will Governor Chris Sununu endorse Trump before the Republican National Convention?", "slug": "will-governor-chris-sununu-endorse", "url": "https://manifold.markets/OllieG/will-governor-chris-sununu-endorse", "pool": {"NO": 1609.0876802116934, "YES": 5.308607977268231}, "probability": 0.99456011233576, "p": 0.376237085825957, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1573.9501945925524, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710427010641, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710427079728, "lastBetTime": 1710427008813, "lastCommentTime": 1710427079081, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "has endorsed", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Nikki Haley in the 2024 Republican primary. However, Trump is increasingly looking like the presumptive nominee. Will Sununu publicly endorse Trump before the Republican National Convention begins on July 15th?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chris Sununu endorses Trump", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "before ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "July 15th, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Endorsement definition: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Saying \"I will support the eventual nominee\" doesn't count", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We're looking for a compelling social media post or speech or press release by Sununu", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will look to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight endorsement tracker", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-endorsements/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for extra confidence", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/OllieG%2F8bbc4d3223a2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "magaland", "2024-republican-primaries"], "textDescription": "New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu has endorsed Nikki Haley in the 2024 Republican primary. However, Trump is increasingly looking like the presumptive nominee. Will Sununu publicly endorse Trump before the Republican National Convention begins on July 15th?\n\nResolves YES if:\n\nChris Sununu endorses Trump\n\nbefore July 15th, 2024\n\nEndorsement definition: \n\nSaying \"I will support the eventual nominee\" doesn't count\n\nWe're looking for a compelling social media post or speech or press release by Sununu\n\nWill look to the FiveThirtyEight endorsement tracker for extra confidence"}, {"id": "UAmQPhzlhQkuhT2bOOZx", "creatorId": "vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2", "creatorUsername": "TiredCliche", "creatorName": "Forrest Taylor", "createdTime": 1704314390397, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTiredCliche%2FL02U7AeM4o.png?alt=media&token=e144f470-f8d1-48c6-a536-985190ee8661", "closeTime": 1709303228490, "question": "Will Ledisi release a new album in 2024?", "slug": "will-ledisi-release-a-new-album-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TiredCliche/will-ledisi-release-a-new-album-in", "pool": {"NO": 12615, "YES": 1.8301586728375696}, "probability": 0.9999002254625843, "p": 0.5924875974486337, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12545, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709303228490, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709303229271, "lastBetTime": 1709303206125, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Her last album was Ledisi sings Nina in 2021. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/TiredCliche%2F39c1e41658a2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["music-artists", "music-f213cbf1eab5"], "textDescription": "Her last album was Ledisi sings Nina in 2021. "}, {"id": "ceIaIp4iHXcKcPfEzUcL", "creatorId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1", "creatorUsername": "JCDM", "creatorName": "Jimmy Carter Death Markets", "createdTime": 1707023498729, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTestiecool%2FSf9hv1SJhH.jpg?alt=media&token=b52f6399-67e5-4e8f-831d-01d8ae732bec", "closeTime": 1707627540000, "question": "Will Jimmy Carter die during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)", "slug": "will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-6t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JCDM/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-6t", "pool": {"NO": 342.0918145379896, "YES": 6308.250852664765}, "probability": 0.005558901875094258, "p": 0.09344779038269697, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8534.696443635403, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707628588901, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1", "uniqueBettorCount": 27, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707628589276, "lastBetTime": 1707622055644, "lastCommentTime": 1707628378748, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Testiecool%2F15e8b82a014a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["jimmy-carter", "death-markets"], "textDescription": "Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)\n\nResolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)"}, {"id": "Tw0R7vpaMLO7Oz66P6T2", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707944147691, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708087800000, "question": "Will flight AF 1781 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-16 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-14f95b44a370", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-14f95b44a370", "pool": {"NO": 110.606093383773, "YES": 106.56931018133356}, "probability": 0.27706887409186554, "p": 0.26968379673287557, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708178104034, "resolutionProbability": 0.28, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708178104259, "lastBetTime": 1708079424513, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-16 12:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-16 - 14:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a006:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a015:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=16", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=16", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1781", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fdba26da92bad.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-16 12:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-16 - 14:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a006:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a015:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "SCYbiXUQQLzhiyN5oij8", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1704204562432, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1706828340000, "question": "Poland: Will Krzysztof Bosak stay the Vice-Marshal of Sejm by February 1?", "slug": "poland-will-krzysztof-bosak-stay-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/poland-will-krzysztof-bosak-stay-th", "pool": {"NO": 6283.268049404144, "YES": 80.64156345534664}, "probability": 0.997136727171511, "p": 0.8171701298055339, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6305.849209534959, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706888238764, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706888239129, "lastBetTime": 1706813986825, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if Krzysztof Bosak is still designated Vice-Marshal of Sejm on February 1 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If he is removed from the position, this will resolve NO", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F8E2o1jJ-rX.png?alt=media&token=a6f76f0b-3ff0-458f-bc12-5f687b05a581", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/itsTomekK%2F47a26d2d76ac.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["central-europe", "poland", "leaders"], "textDescription": "This will resolve YES if Krzysztof Bosak is still designated Vice-Marshal of Sejm on February 1 2024.\n\nIf he is removed from the position, this will resolve NO\n\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "UGQbDfucar8zCZVGlqn9", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1710525114577, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1713308218262, "question": "Champions League quarter finals - will Barcelona qualify over PSG?", "slug": "champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-520b00739021", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-520b00739021", "pool": {"NO": 103.98339397944362, "YES": 4273.5395030024}, "probability": 0.010080553678692233, "p": 0.29503609258749497, "totalLiquidity": 540, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7429.13088165068, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1713308218262, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713308218262, "lastBetTime": 1713301384274, "lastCommentTime": 1713308208548, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The draw for the quarter finals of the Champions League has been made:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arsenal vs Bayern Munich ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "cXzeuoPuOHnoxFoqms4s", "label": "/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "NQ2zzCSFD9ODbQHgdzVp", "label": "/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Real Madrid vs Manchester City - ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "kIbIcSAMQlkyOsPNhBj9", "label": "/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-0992b20f339c"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "PSG vs Barcelona", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The two legs take place on 9th/10th April and 16th/17th April.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Barcelona qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Paris Saint Germain qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet on which of the eight teams will have the largest winning margin here - ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "g2yWAH8zbwBhaggVKpAe", "label": "/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-whi"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["football", "uefa", "uefa-champions-league"], "textDescription": "The draw for the quarter finals of the Champions League has been made:\n\nArsenal vs Bayern Munich @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil \n\nAtl\u00e9tico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d \n\nReal Madrid vs Manchester City - @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-0992b20f339c \n\nPSG vs Barcelona\n\nThe two legs take place on 9th/10th April and 16th/17th April.\n\nIf Barcelona qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to YES.\n\nIf Paris Saint Germain qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to NO.\n\nBet on which of the eight teams will have the largest winning margin here - @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-whi "}, {"id": "h5fk3PMMsgK0B2hEqXHG", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706389980142, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706436900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1780 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-28 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-dfd4e8bb1ba3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-dfd4e8bb1ba3", "pool": {"NO": 78.75260345312991, "YES": 170.00000000000006}, "probability": 0.077111599358035, "p": 0.15280510240005052, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 80, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706475666773, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706475667010, "lastBetTime": 1706432859537, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-28 10:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-28 - 12:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=01&date=28", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=01&date=28", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1780", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F6d17e849ff77.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-28 10:15 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-28 - 12:15 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "Hdd5IkCULrAkDAzeOpzt", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702921586196, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703012400000, "question": "Will the TSX close higher on December 19 than it closed on December 18?", "slug": "will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-decemb-49ecba2ac360", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-decemb-49ecba2ac360", "pool": {"NO": 1325.8219081726068, "YES": 121.70153913781628}, "probability": 0.9673447032088188, "p": 0.7311237739397295, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1338.0102030610203, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703023407026, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703023399227, "lastBetTime": 1703011092779, "lastCommentTime": 1703023398703, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2Fbb823c03a348.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "economics-default", "sccsq4", "finance", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "HXFSuP65AuKpKQUEuiuG", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1707191948477, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1707276387034, "question": "\ud83c\udfd2Will the Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins on Feb 6?", "slug": "will-the-winnipeg-jets-beat-pittsbu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-winnipeg-jets-beat-pittsbu", "pool": {"NO": 10.594743697584795, "YES": 1616.184684380998}, "probability": 0.004278716011960147, "p": 0.39595481613297606, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1562.8344799161014, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707276387034, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707276387639, "lastBetTime": 1707273472891, "lastCommentTime": 1707276366054, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=jets+vs+penguins#sie=m;/g/11kqmsgt98;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Winnipeg Jets win. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2Fbcd2bc1f136a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nhl", "hockey", "winnipeg-jets", "sports-default", "yuna-league-beta", "pittsburgh-penguins", "ice-hockey"], "textDescription": "Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins @6pm CST\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Winnipeg Jets win. \n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n"}, {"id": "rz3VQ0OW1czeNnVw29jp", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1702573702078, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1702656000000, "question": "Will Siemens close higher december 15th than the close of december 14th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-siemens-close-higher-december-97d5589817b8", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-siemens-close-higher-december-97d5589817b8", "pool": {"NO": 389.65185697178924, "YES": 71.77717684206378}, "probability": 0.9324721013719688, "p": 0.7178073644090465, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 311.27105048426085, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702664982761, "resolutionProbability": 0.93, "resolverId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222357053, "lastBetTime": 1702655150645, "lastCommentTime": 1702664977859, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FFIiJtP5HeO.png?alt=media&token=b3112251-2f38-493d-9cc4-f6c67319c7ff", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Orimos%2Fda60560a1afb.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "Awi1afgF9el2wP7Jnnc4", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706986095787, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707201900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-02-06 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-6087cd7a51de", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-6087cd7a51de", "pool": {"NO": 85.33679591248777, "YES": 133.26189272816237}, "probability": 0.07171244344672702, "p": 0.10765062596357072, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 66.64930751775451, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707244758500, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707244758710, "lastBetTime": 1707201813435, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-06 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-06 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=06", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=06", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F609ecfe264c9.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-06 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-06 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "1htngAegp2Ei6yvcWeFo", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1711863762403, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1717103586726, "question": "Will Joe Biden live to see Trump convicted of a crime?", "slug": "will-joe-biden-live-to-see-trump-co", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-trump-co", "pool": {"NO": 9924.77802656184, "YES": 436.55834669034175}, "probability": 0.9849726253801088, "p": 0.7424750449305896, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11068.571384794248, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717103586726, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 57, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717103609508, "lastBetTime": 1717103572092, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "PRz9pDpXy8nMmx7xA2Uc", "label": "/strutheo/will-biden-live-to-see-luffy-find-t"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "yNhazeIQgDVsHCGH59BP", "label": "/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-the-russ"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bDf2c1BATRR6OaLz4Ehw", "label": "/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-grand-th"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["trump-indictments", "the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "politics-default", "law-order", "crime"], "textDescription": "See: @/strutheo/will-biden-live-to-see-luffy-find-t \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-the-russ \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-grand-th "}, {"id": "gTeU5jMWvFsYjtyzyaOn", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1711542940663, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1712268684854, "question": "Will Dow Jones Industrial Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?", "slug": "will-dow-jones-industrial-index-dec", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-dow-jones-industrial-index-dec", "pool": {"NO": 419.32610920384707, "YES": 80.95377088348373}, "probability": 0.9011739201915685, "p": 0.6377394418318505, "totalLiquidity": 160, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 275.10738958986065, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712268684854, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712268684854, "lastBetTime": 1711548277385, "lastCommentTime": 1712268676382, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Will Dow Jones Industrial Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source used is *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dow Jones", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Daily Open/Close Time: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between even 0.001% which official S&P 500 Data Source will be used in these instances for 2 sources with possibility of a third to assure official information is confirmed correct!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/MarketWatch/WSJ/CNBC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["dow-jones", "stocks"], "textDescription": "Will Dow Jones Industrial Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?\n\nMarket Information:\n\nThe official source used is *Google Finance\n\nDow Jones\n\nDaily Open/Close Time: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC\n\nResolving:\n\nResolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nNote: Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between even 0.001% which official S&P 500 Data Source will be used in these instances for 2 sources with possibility of a third to assure official information is confirmed correct!\n\nDISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n\n*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/MarketWatch/WSJ/CNBC.\n"}, {"id": "PzcZobDRkT3fZMjsn1QG", "creatorId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "creatorUsername": "Lion", "creatorName": "Lion", "createdTime": 1713214828900, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c", "closeTime": 1713537686578, "question": "[short fuse] Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,200.00 before 5,000.00?", "slug": "short-fuse-bulls-vs-bears-will-the-00d99d33f343", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Lion/short-fuse-bulls-vs-bears-will-the-00d99d33f343", "pool": {"NO": 56.86690481959158, "YES": 3672.884493001275}, "probability": 0.009999999999999997, "p": 0.3948188490177643, "totalLiquidity": 320, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7072.968915369861, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1713537686578, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713537686578, "lastBetTime": 1713536762712, "lastCommentTime": 1713537679548, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,200.00 or 5,000.00 points ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "during official NYSE core trading hours", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " after market creation (2024-04-15).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,000.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,200.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYSE intraday ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/quote/index/SPX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For free live trading, I recommend using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yahoo Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "nyse.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://nyse.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sp-500-changes", "finance", "sp-500-439f18dbc885"], "textDescription": "Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,200.00 or 5,000.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-04-15).\n\nResolves NO if $SPX <= 5,000.00\n\nResolves YES if $SPX >= 5,200.00\n\nI'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay). \n\nThis question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.\n\nFor free live trading, I recommend using Google Finance or Yahoo Finance.\n\nIf you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.\n\nDisclaimer: Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If nyse.com experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source."}, {"id": "8Yqibe8WuIFJNrgSzMkz", "creatorId": "iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23", "creatorUsername": "EstMtz", "creatorName": "Sapphire828", "createdTime": 1706994278359, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FEstevanMartinez%2FSCrTet-9FD.png?alt=media&token=46eb74a5-fb31-4a2a-b4bd-91600290a4d7", "closeTime": 1708959608282, "question": "Will Japan's JAXA SLIM moon lander \"Moon Sniper\" survive the lunar night?", "slug": "will-japans-jaxa-slim-moon-lander-m-e3facb4a3793", "url": "https://manifold.markets/EstMtz/will-japans-jaxa-slim-moon-lander-m-e3facb4a3793", "pool": {"NO": 5949.053895852461, "YES": 121.37095180926153}, "probability": 0.990463077194442, "p": 0.6793673252721918, "totalLiquidity": 610, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8842.23743137332, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1708959608282, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23", "uniqueBettorCount": 35, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709383974967, "lastBetTime": 1708959372502, "lastCommentTime": 1709383974548, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FFVvSElR446.56?alt=media&token=d0ebda45-0654-4bd3-84c4-bb5cfcc4b745", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68131105", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68131105", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-lander-dormant-final-photos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-lander-dormant-final-photos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BBC article:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"It is not yet clear how long the craft will be able to operate - it all hinges on the angle of the Sun and solar panels. The Sun will eventually set on the lander and Jaxa has previously warned that it was not designed to survive a lunar night, when the surface of the Moon is not exposed to the Sun for about 14 days.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Space article:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"JAXA will need to wait out the roughly 14.5-Earth-day-long lunar nighttime and then wait for favorable lighting and temperature conditions later in the next lunar daytime (which starts around Feb. 15) before SLIM can potentially be revived once more. For the probe to awake again, however, its electronics must hold up in the face of equatorial lunar nighttime ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "temperatures", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.space.com/18175-moon-temperature.html", "class": "hawk-link-parsed", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " of around minus 208 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 130 degrees Celsius).\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "~Feb. 25th, 2024 (my own estimate, plus or minus a few days) is when there should be enough sunlight hitting the solar panels to attempt a revival of the lander.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Market will resolve YES if: any signal is received from the SLIM probe indicating the electronics have survived the lunar night", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Market will resolve NO if: no signal is received from the SLIM probe after the lunar night", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/EstMtz%2F95464f7bd5a2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["spacex", "science-default", "space", "moon-landers", "japan", "space-exploration", "jaxa", "technology-default", "moon"], "textDescription": "[image]https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68131105\n\nhttps://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-lander-dormant-final-photos\n\nBBC article:\n\n\"It is not yet clear how long the craft will be able to operate - it all hinges on the angle of the Sun and solar panels. The Sun will eventually set on the lander and Jaxa has previously warned that it was not designed to survive a lunar night, when the surface of the Moon is not exposed to the Sun for about 14 days.\"\n\nSpace article:\n\n\"JAXA will need to wait out the roughly 14.5-Earth-day-long lunar nighttime and then wait for favorable lighting and temperature conditions later in the next lunar daytime (which starts around Feb. 15) before SLIM can potentially be revived once more. For the probe to awake again, however, its electronics must hold up in the face of equatorial lunar nighttime temperatures of around minus 208 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 130 degrees Celsius).\"\n\n~Feb. 25th, 2024 (my own estimate, plus or minus a few days) is when there should be enough sunlight hitting the solar panels to attempt a revival of the lander.\n\nResolution Criteria:\n\n-Market will resolve YES if: any signal is received from the SLIM probe indicating the electronics have survived the lunar night\n\n-Market will resolve NO if: no signal is received from the SLIM probe after the lunar night"}, {"id": "rBANHCIQfnOakeBZS8Ba", "creatorId": "Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2", "creatorUsername": "Orca", "creatorName": "Orcatron", "createdTime": 1703280964029, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704654480000, "question": "NFL\ud83c\udfc8: Week 18 -- Will the Detroit Lions win their NFL Game against the Minnesota Vikings on 01/07?", "slug": "nfl-week-18-will-the-detroit-lions", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-18-will-the-detroit-lions", "pool": {"NO": 622.9196303308295, "YES": 221.4398285290256}, "probability": 0.8388389158010819, "p": 0.6491597167531162, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1681.0874818454727, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704661773186, "resolutionProbability": 0.84, "resolverId": "Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206777982, "lastBetTime": 1704653413957, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Time of Game not announced as of date of creation of this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will close this market for trading about an hour after KICKOFF. So please place your trades in prior to that!!", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Orca%2F946686609ca8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["football", "nfl", "detroit-lions", "minnesota-vikings"], "textDescription": "Time of Game not announced as of date of creation of this market.\n\nI will close this market for trading about an hour after KICKOFF. So please place your trades in prior to that!!"}, {"id": "I1AjSqdqmtqB7E9LbraL", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1702368545764, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1702529400000, "question": "Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2023-12-14 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-867e3a42731b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-867e3a42731b", "pool": {"NO": 78.80465573750195, "YES": 195.00652471065428}, "probability": 0.060000000000000046, "p": 0.1364051336087687, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 205, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702547817815, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702529196478, "lastBetTime": 1702529196321, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-14 04:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-14 - 06:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2023&month=12&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2023&month=12&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lo331", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fe7fe274cf786.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-14 04:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-14 - 06:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "IRDds9miMB1T31ldUV3l", "creatorId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1", "creatorUsername": "JCDM", "creatorName": "Jimmy Carter Death Markets", "createdTime": 1703879122470, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTestiecool%2FSf9hv1SJhH.jpg?alt=media&token=b52f6399-67e5-4e8f-831d-01d8ae732bec", "closeTime": 1704603540000, "question": "Will Jimmy Carter Die during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)", "slug": "will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JCDM/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi", "pool": {"NO": 229.95692100854103, "YES": 21347.276931931745}, "probability": 0.0015742405706425143, "p": 0.12768109717907192, "totalLiquidity": 450, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 22854.284200524686, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704605367358, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1", "uniqueBettorCount": 23, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704605367624, "lastBetTime": 1704601471908, "lastCommentTime": 1704605359024, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Testiecool%2Fcf8ac7811229.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["death-markets", "jimmy-carter"], "textDescription": "Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)\n\nResolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)"}, {"id": "YD6X8zuOTlnonIunQsfM", "creatorId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "creatorUsername": "Joshua", "creatorName": "Joshua", "createdTime": 1715540710267, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshua%2Flove-images%2FQ-cHyvFvAI.png?alt=media&token=363611e5-3f90-45c9-87d5-f5791800ee6f", "closeTime": 1716188340000, "question": "Will \"OpenAI\" hit 50% of its previous all-time high search interest this week? (US Google Trends)", "slug": "will-openai-hit-50-of-its-previous", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-openai-hit-50-of-its-previous", "pool": {"NO": 1252.9290122004797, "YES": 522.8571954310385}, "probability": 0.9822324553245595, "p": 0.9584541311147516, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2915.6976193001437, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716272804998, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "uniqueBettorCount": 43, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716327057029, "lastBetTime": 1716178395124, "lastCommentTime": 1716272889547, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data will be taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11bxc656v6&hl=en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2W3t4PYWMT.png?alt=media&token=f07cac4f-ebf2-4172-8e4f-d05e93173a43", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The previous record for search interest in the US was during the Sam Altman firing incident last November. In February of this year, interest briefly spiked to 55% of that previous record.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the finalized data for the week of May 12th to 18th is 50 or higher, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Joshua/d11cf9c9873b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "ai", "openai"], "textDescription": "Data will be taken from here. \n\n[image]The previous record for search interest in the US was during the Sam Altman firing incident last November. In February of this year, interest briefly spiked to 55% of that previous record.\n\nIf the finalized data for the week of May 12th to 18th is 50 or higher, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. "}, {"id": "He65xr5CW5jBQKd9ntLE", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1710809866609, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1710889200000, "question": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Bitcoin Cash Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?", "slug": "-crypto-how-will-bitcoin-close-on-t-977e2578cb2e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/-crypto-how-will-bitcoin-close-on-t-977e2578cb2e", "pool": {"NO": 123.64311035596452, "YES": 349.35256482309865}, "probability": 0.21248062770089302, "p": 0.4325745247445756, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 630.000099009901, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710902674171, "resolutionProbability": 0.21, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710889200000, "lastBetTime": 1710866873271, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Bitcoin Cash Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = HIGHER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = LOWER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The markets are open from 8pm - 8pm ET (12am UTC - 12am UTC)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market predictions will close 7pm ET (11pm UTC)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source used is *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Coingecko", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bitcoin Cash BCH/USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin-cash", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "Historical Data displayed at *Coingecko ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin-cash/historical_data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option resolves independent of the others.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a Cryptocurrency closes \"Flat\" (same close price as prior day) this will resolve 50/50 for their Yes/No options.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-marketdaily", "crypto-prices", "bitcoin-cash"], "textDescription": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Bitcoin Cash Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?\n\nYES = HIGHER\nNO = LOWER\n\nMarket Information:\n\nThe markets are open from 8pm - 8pm ET (12am UTC - 12am UTC)\n\nThis market predictions will close 7pm ET (11pm UTC)\n\nThe official source used is *Coingecko\n\nBitcoin Cash BCH/USD\n\nResolving:\n\nResolves according to the Historical Data displayed at *Coingecko at the end of the day.\n\nEach option resolves independent of the others.\n\nIf a Cryptocurrency closes \"Flat\" (same close price as prior day) this will resolve 50/50 for their Yes/No options.\n\nDISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n\n\n"}, {"id": "PyK62l8EwStQSDhi6keg", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707168267399, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707375600000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-08 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-1e2a668f92db", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-1e2a668f92db", "pool": {"NO": 88.00315700569136, "YES": 101.22657739321714}, "probability": 0.14001641413038127, "p": 0.15773676623452654, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 85.46563242851963, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707429449100, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707429449338, "lastBetTime": 1707252945453, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-08 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-08 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=08", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=08", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F6d07467feea5.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-08 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-08 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "G8PyLNRuXRumqWyR3ane", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1715311827181, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1715382000000, "question": "Will Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers on May 10 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs)", "slug": "will-boston-bruins-beat-florida-pan-c9cb03151da4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-boston-bruins-beat-florida-pan-c9cb03151da4", "pool": {"NO": 506.90255583452495, "YES": 493.18225069169864}, "probability": 0.5065425233154988, "p": 0.49968289555526213, "totalLiquidity": 500, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 56, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715395657951, "resolutionProbability": 0.51, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715382000000, "lastBetTime": 1715359252404, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers on May 10", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Bruins+vs+Panthers#sie=m;/g/11y48mnpv0;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 6pm CST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "6pm CST on May 10", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenW/051adb0082f2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hockey", "nhl", "sports-default", "culture-default", "sports-betting"], "textDescription": "Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers on May 10\n\nGame starts 6pm CST\n\nThis market closes at 6pm CST on May 10\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death"}, {"id": "z7WnQXpRRv1jnxJQ0A1U", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1706621226865, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1707393210693, "question": "\ud83c\udf10 Will Google's Gemini Ultra LLM Be Released To The Public Before March 31st 2024?", "slug": "-will-googles-gemini-ultra-llm-be-r", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/-will-googles-gemini-ultra-llm-be-r", "pool": {"NO": 2359.5766504861026, "YES": 334.08754778859816}, "probability": 0.9443527198237824, "p": 0.7061238275293511, "totalLiquidity": 650, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2613.827465940322, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707393210693, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707397975992, "lastBetTime": 1707223770998, "lastCommentTime": 1707397975365, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83c\udf10 Will Google's Gemini Ultra LLM Be Released To The Public Before March 31st 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLVES YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is available to the public through Google products, including search, ads, and Bard, etc. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There MUST be a product/app/extension offered that someone can use on desktop, web, or mobile to be able to confirm proof of the release. This could be myself, or another Manifold user. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Free or Paid counts, as long as it fits the criteria of Gemini Ultra.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Ie., much like when ChatGPT was released on web first, than mobile app stores. Either of similar would resolve YES.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLVES NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is not available to the public and only available to Corporate Customers, Developers, Enterprise, Partners, etc. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTES:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "  ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Close Time Is The Deadline.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may defer judgement to a third party individual of my choosing should anything be determined to be unclear.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CLARIFICATIONS:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1/30/2024 : Needs To Be Available To US Customers at a minimum.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CONTEXT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Gemini: A Family of Highly Capable Multimodal Models", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/gemini/gemini_1_report.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDj7YnTmshX.png?alt=media&token=53aab076-c466-461a-b32f-b9c419b9532b", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "APRIL MARKET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/-will-googles-gemini-ultra-llm-be-r-2ddc47269938", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SirCryptomind%2F6558c14a915c.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["science-default", "release-dates", "google-gemini", "ai", "google-bard", "technology-default", "llms", "google-ef2cf716540e"], "textDescription": "\ud83c\udf10 Will Google's Gemini Ultra LLM Be Released To The Public Before March 31st 2024?\n\nRESOLVES YES: \n\nIf an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is available to the public through Google products, including search, ads, and Bard, etc. \n\nThere MUST be a product/app/extension offered that someone can use on desktop, web, or mobile to be able to confirm proof of the release. This could be myself, or another Manifold user. \n\nFree or Paid counts, as long as it fits the criteria of Gemini Ultra.\n\n(Ie., much like when ChatGPT was released on web first, than mobile app stores. Either of similar would resolve YES.)\n\nRESOLVES NO: \n\nIf an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is not available to the public and only available to Corporate Customers, Developers, Enterprise, Partners, etc. \n\nNOTES:  \n\nThe Close Time Is The Deadline.\n\nI may defer judgement to a third party individual of my choosing should anything be determined to be unclear.\n\nCLARIFICATIONS:\n\n1/30/2024 : Needs To Be Available To US Customers at a minimum.\n\nCONTEXT\nGemini: A Family of Highly Capable Multimodal Models\n\n[image]DISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n\nAPRIL MARKET\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/-will-googles-gemini-ultra-llm-be-r-2ddc47269938)"}, {"id": "mn2FkoYRBSnCKlpVqKM0", "creatorId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "creatorUsername": "LukasDay", "creatorName": "Lukas Day", "createdTime": 1709234287003, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLukasDay%2F-mUxC2rODr.png?alt=media&token=0337405b-7dc2-49f9-b0ad-0400288973bd", "closeTime": 1711954740000, "question": "Will Oregon sell more marijuana in March than February?", "slug": "will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in", "pool": {"NO": 879.6378464538916, "YES": 321.9740443943324}, "probability": 0.8258851101199187, "p": 0.6345301352656799, "totalLiquidity": 480, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 624, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712072753857, "resolutionProbability": 0.83, "resolverId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711954740000, "lastBetTime": 1711951120261, "lastCommentTime": 1712072747528, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mn2FkoYRBSnCKlpVqKM0", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "z1bAOKdCy08zWGxGmet3", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-271befb2bc54"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-271befb2bc54", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "IBGyGfdYtZl7ctKKnEzR", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-16f7b75ebc08"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-16f7b75ebc08", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "NMSyys6yx7q4T1FmntxV", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-c85b93ccbade"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-c85b93ccbade", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "MTfHiBkqR8mmZQs3vfCY", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-fe6be23a27e5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-fe6be23a27e5", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mgylWUFS6Y3vGRhqYTXc", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-024a6e3b2d7c"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-024a6e3b2d7c", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "xz84b0keqQXWfGcTPZ48", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-5c9cdd6ae445"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-5c9cdd6ae445", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "tHhOlTbnh2dAQS3ynbwt", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a28dcd66de42"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a28dcd66de42", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "FIYrHZXUcxuRYYEh0EBH", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a2d3a27ba997"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "4apl4UXOcVg2q5csjvQp", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-4967c287aefe"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a2d3a27ba997", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a prediction market. Market will close 31 March and will resolve in April when reports are released.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if Oregon marijuana total sales for March are higher than February sales.\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if Oregon marijuana total sales for March are less than or equal to February sales.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data Source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Oregon Liquor & Cannabis Commission Monthly Reports", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data.olcc.state.or.us/t/OLCCPublic/views/MarketDataTableau/StatewideSalesTrend?%3Aembed=y&%3Aiid=1&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not bet in markets I create. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/LukasDay%2F6ab9d56208a8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "cannabis", "economics-default", "drugs", "us-economy", "marijuana", "marijuana-sales"], "textDescription": "Related Markets\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-271befb2bc54 \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-16f7b75ebc08 \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-c85b93ccbade \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-fe6be23a27e5 \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-024a6e3b2d7c \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-5c9cdd6ae445 \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a28dcd66de42 \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a2d3a27ba997 \n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-4967c287aefe \u200c\n\nMarket Resolution\n\nThis is a prediction market. Market will close 31 March and will resolve in April when reports are released.\n\nMarket will resolve YES if Oregon marijuana total sales for March are higher than February sales.\u00a0\n\n\nMarket will resolve NO if Oregon marijuana total sales for March are less than or equal to February sales.\n\nData Source: Oregon Liquor & Cannabis Commission Monthly Reports\n\nDisclaimer\n\nI do not bet in markets I create. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log. "}, {"id": "osiaVAn6IDceH27ZRGg9", "creatorId": "N8NZFmbUKwVrISMWM2MBVlPd77p1", "creatorUsername": "SamBogerd", "creatorName": "Sam Bogerd", "createdTime": 1706701610965, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7jLVh87UFbGs1SVyVEC8hHwUqLiyniT_8xSym6vVg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709333940000, "question": "Will the current draft of the EU AI Act pass without changes?", "slug": "will-the-current-draft-of-the-eu-ai", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SamBogerd/will-the-current-draft-of-the-eu-ai", "pool": {"NO": 729.4149793543885, "YES": 210.64131624632833}, "probability": 0.8497139738792853, "p": 0.6201708413706529, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 934.8743513605316, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710698691538, "resolutionProbability": 0.85, "resolverId": "N8NZFmbUKwVrISMWM2MBVlPd77p1", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710698691761, "lastBetTime": 1709323205565, "lastCommentTime": 1706887106202, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fairly straightforward question, I will have a pretty low bar for changes, but any changes that are just meant to clarify the language will definitely not count. I think the change would have to be a significant policy change, by current I mean the proposal circulating after this leak: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://thenextweb.com/news/eu-ai-act-leak-removes-dobuts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thenextweb.com/news/eu-ai-act-leak-removes-dobuts", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SamBogerd%2Fb77b6c73b129.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["ai", "ai-governance-policy", "politics-default", "european-union"], "textDescription": "Fairly straightforward question, I will have a pretty low bar for changes, but any changes that are just meant to clarify the language will definitely not count. I think the change would have to be a significant policy change, by current I mean the proposal circulating after this leak: https://thenextweb.com/news/eu-ai-act-leak-removes-dobuts \n\n"}, {"id": "9XIKIGg9Yg0woV0f0jva", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1705061862258, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1705695819815, "question": "Will Arc Browser on Windows be released to more than 2000 betatesters by January 20?", "slug": "will-arc-browser-on-windows-be-rele-70b33f3a58dd", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-arc-browser-on-windows-be-rele-70b33f3a58dd", "pool": {"NO": 3967.2662062784866, "YES": 118.8837325623156}, "probability": 0.9973401965506349, "p": 0.9182762157719598, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11317.640413790159, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705695819815, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705695820437, "lastBetTime": 1705689533724, "lastCommentTime": 1705646772339, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arc Browser is a freeware web browser developed by The Browser Company, released in April 2022. It offers a unique user interface and features aimed at improving organization and efficiency in web browsing. Key features include innovative management of tabs and bookmarks, and the ability to create distinct workspaces for different activities or projects. Arc Browser is available for macOS and iOS...", "type": "text"}, {"text": "but not on Windows! They recently started releasing it to betatesters.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the Arc Browser on Windows be released to more than 2000 betatesters on January 20, 2024?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.isarconwindowsyet.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.isarconwindowsyet.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4jhiOZ8NqW.png?alt=media&token=b1b533dd-b606-42ea-85b4-1a72b170213b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/itsTomekK%2F1b2ced2e6ac5.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "programming", "microsoft", "web-browser"], "textDescription": "Arc Browser is a freeware web browser developed by The Browser Company, released in April 2022. It offers a unique user interface and features aimed at improving organization and efficiency in web browsing. Key features include innovative management of tabs and bookmarks, and the ability to create distinct workspaces for different activities or projects. Arc Browser is available for macOS and iOS...but not on Windows! They recently started releasing it to betatesters.\n\nWill the Arc Browser on Windows be released to more than 2000 betatesters on January 20, 2024?\n\nhttps://www.isarconwindowsyet.com/\n\n\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "L4QqLWD1UhaPHvYhiL52", "creatorId": "QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2", "creatorUsername": "MaxGhenis", "creatorName": "Max Ghenis", "createdTime": 1706648229794, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgM_UNrjUiqppt7ZynZvdHyNbCIqhj1TB1alkabpaQ=s96-c", "closeTime": 1713239940000, "question": "Will the US enact legislation to inflation-index the Child Tax Credit in before the 2023 tax filing deadline?", "slug": "will-the-us-enact-legislation-to-in-9ff0e808adc6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MaxGhenis/will-the-us-enact-legislation-to-in-9ff0e808adc6", "pool": {"NO": 25.559516559824374, "YES": 1563.0954995378236}, "probability": 0.010000000000000035, "p": 0.3818493268822435, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1936.4665227240475, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1713281441177, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713239940000, "lastBetTime": 1713231477384, "lastCommentTime": 1706753743271, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On January 19, 2024, the US House Ways and Means Committee approved ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "H.R.7024 - Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". This bill makes four changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC), including indexing the Child Tax Credit to inflation beginning in 2024 (Sec. 103).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve TRUE if, by 2024-04-15 (the 2023 tax filing deadline), the US enacts legislation that inflation-indexes the Child Tax Credit beginning in 2024. If the US extends the tax filing deadline, I will extend the market accordingly.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/MaxGhenis%2Fa6f646cce5d7.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["tax", "us-child-tax-credit", "us-politics"], "textDescription": "On January 19, 2024, the US House Ways and Means Committee approved H.R.7024 - Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024. This bill makes four changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC), including indexing the Child Tax Credit to inflation beginning in 2024 (Sec. 103).\n\nThis will resolve TRUE if, by 2024-04-15 (the 2023 tax filing deadline), the US enacts legislation that inflation-indexes the Child Tax Credit beginning in 2024. If the US extends the tax filing deadline, I will extend the market accordingly."}, {"id": "rtz346aNIWJxVExmnuJD", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1712259909842, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1713043912728, "question": "Will Iran launch an air, missile, or drone strike on any part of Israel or Palestine before the end of 2024?", "slug": "will-iran-missile-strike-any-part-o", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-iran-missile-strike-any-part-o", "pool": {"NO": 6785.947847136241, "YES": 165.7615391203326}, "probability": 0.9882796253216826, "p": 0.6731744378079837, "totalLiquidity": 800, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8079.565637581937, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1713043912728, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 39, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713131153349, "lastBetTime": 1713043908280, "lastCommentTime": 1713131152851, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["israel", "iran", "wars", "geopolitics", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "arabisraeli-conflict", "palestine", "middle-east"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "Ue4WuBLCjAWalc1OxyKv", "creatorId": "63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2", "creatorUsername": "Haribo", "creatorName": "Haribo", "createdTime": 1715632979480, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaydon%2Fv6qxUCiuAD.jpg?alt=media&token=21dc1702-38b4-441c-8c7f-e96e7084fcfd", "closeTime": 1715645362413, "question": "NBA Playoffs: Game 4 Boston Celtics Vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Will Boston Score More Points During The 2nd Quarter?", "slug": "nba-playoffs-game-4-boston-celtics-cf7f5e5c7264", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haribo/nba-playoffs-game-4-boston-celtics-cf7f5e5c7264", "pool": {"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066171}, "probability": 0.01, "p": 0.5000000000000001, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1440.7093662607977, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715645362413, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715645362413, "lastBetTime": 1715645300910, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if Boston scores more points than Cleveland during the 2nd quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No if Boston scores less points than Cleveland during the 2nd quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "50% if Both Teams score same point total in 2nd quarter", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haydon/3b132daecff1.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nba", "nba-playoffs", "sports-default", "20232024-nba-season"], "textDescription": "Yes if Boston scores more points than Cleveland during the 2nd quarter.\n\nNo if Boston scores less points than Cleveland during the 2nd quarter.\n\n50% if Both Teams score same point total in 2nd quarter"}, {"id": "H2FT0T8UWZdfVcvNNjoI", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1703595493977, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1703797200000, "question": "Will Apple (NYSE: AAPL) Close At Under $189 Per Share During The Apple Watch Ban By Market Close On Dec 29th 2023?", "slug": "will-apple-nyse-aapl-close-at-under", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-apple-nyse-aapl-close-at-under", "pool": {"NO": 287.4594123683433, "YES": 2272.014878301178}, "probability": 0.03548302908484488, "p": 0.22526697233380424, "totalLiquidity": 510, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3096.786158530848, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703886933339, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 27, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703886933858, "lastBetTime": 1703796687057, "lastCommentTime": 1703886918072, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Will Apple (NYSE: AAPL) Close At Under $189 Per Share During The Apple Watch Ban By Market Close On Dec 29th 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DIS:NYSE?window=YTD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes 24 hours prior to 4pm Friday Dec. 29th 2023 Market Close.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the ban is lifted during the time this market is open with proof from the same source I have provided, this market will N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SOURCE LINK", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/biden-administration-allows-us-trade-tribunals-ban-apple-watch-imports-2023-12-26/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_xb0QEkoEp.png?alt=media&token=13182e2f-a422-4b71-8ca9-bebbd5150cbf", "title": null}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "UPDATE: 12/27/2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a \"Pause\" and NOT a definitive lifting of the ban.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/apple-wins-bid-pause-apple-watch-ban-us-appeals-court-2023-12-27/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1740049840703193286"}}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pause Period(s means the period(s) of time between dates, which You have specified, where Your cover for Legal Liability shall temporarily not apply. For the avoidance of doubt, You a", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "re not entitled to make a claim for an event which occurs during the Pause Period.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lifting = the action of ending a rule or law: the lifting of a ban/injunction/embargo.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Bots are excluded)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SirCryptomind%2Fce94439902df.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "stocks", "technology-default", "apple"], "textDescription": "Will Apple (NYSE: AAPL) Close At Under $189 Per Share During The Apple Watch Ban By Market Close On Dec 29th 2023?\n\nResolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nThis market closes 24 hours prior to 4pm Friday Dec. 29th 2023 Market Close.\n\nIf the ban is lifted during the time this market is open with proof from the same source I have provided, this market will N/A.\n\nContext: SOURCE LINK\n\n[image]UPDATE: 12/27/2023\n\nThis is a \"Pause\" and NOT a definitive lifting of the ban.\n\n[tweet]Pause Period(s means the period(s) of time between dates, which You have specified, where Your cover for Legal Liability shall temporarily not apply. For the avoidance of doubt, You are not entitled to make a claim for an event which occurs during the Pause Period.\n\nLifting = the action of ending a rule or law: the lifting of a ban/injunction/embargo.\n\nDASHBOARD\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)\n\nDISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n"}, {"id": "uPgzUzvzvavmZb7uM3Ac", "creatorId": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2", "creatorUsername": "Soli", "creatorName": "Soli \uaa5c", "createdTime": 1702709390485, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSoli%2FdFEQMzdPmS.png?alt=media&token=2bf72f44-15d4-4349-b8d8-036e569a957f", "closeTime": 1711922340000, "question": "Will GPT-4 be available to ChatGPT Free Users before April 2024?", "slug": "will-gpt4-be-available-to-chatgpt-f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-gpt4-be-available-to-chatgpt-f", "pool": {"NO": 177.48877190456528, "YES": 13411.452931135205}, "probability": 0.008557123841690446, "p": 0.39473774598238653, "totalLiquidity": 1145, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 37877.56130724765, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711923118855, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 103, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711922340000, "lastBetTime": 1711919233995, "lastCommentTime": 1708585094319, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Free Access Conditions: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The bet resolves YES if OpenAI offers GPT-4 (including variants like \"GPT-4-lite\" or similar) for free to ChatGPT users before April of 2024 under any of these conditions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Permanent free access with limited usage (e.g., capped messages)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Limited trial access totaling four weeks (not necessarily consecutive)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Access through custom GPTs using GPT-4 on the GPT-Store.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Exclusion Criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trials requiring credit card information and leading to automatic charges after the trial do not count towards this bet's resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Access to GPT-4 through other platforms like Bing does not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edge Cases", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a trial that doesn't lead to automatic charges starts in March and ends in April, this would count towards resolving the market to Yes.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If OpenAI requires a payment method for verification and doesn't apply automatic charges, then this would count toward resolving this question as Yes. However, this is highly unlikely since they use phone numbers for verification.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Soli/will-gpt4-be-available-to-chatgpt-f-d2d3ffadbd8b?r=U29saQ", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FICTHZTY9dh.49?alt=media&token=7e2b1800-0282-4f81-b234-bf9251096345", "groupSlugs": ["openai", "language-models", "gpt4-speculation", "chatgpt"], "textDescription": "Free Access Conditions: The bet resolves YES if OpenAI offers GPT-4 (including variants like \"GPT-4-lite\" or similar) for free to ChatGPT users before April of 2024 under any of these conditions:\n\nPermanent free access with limited usage (e.g., capped messages)\n\nLimited trial access totaling four weeks (not necessarily consecutive)\n\nAccess through custom GPTs using GPT-4 on the GPT-Store.\n\nExclusion Criteria\n\nTrials requiring credit card information and leading to automatic charges after the trial do not count towards this bet's resolution.\n\nAccess to GPT-4 through other platforms like Bing does not count.\n\nEdge Cases\n\nIf a trial that doesn't lead to automatic charges starts in March and ends in April, this would count towards resolving the market to Yes.\n\nIf OpenAI requires a payment method for verification and doesn't apply automatic charges, then this would count toward resolving this question as Yes. However, this is highly unlikely since they use phone numbers for verification.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Soli/will-gpt4-be-available-to-chatgpt-f-d2d3ffadbd8b?r=U29saQ)"}, {"id": "SI6xCdcRF2DV9Zs3WT9G", "creatorId": "S67z2NQPG2ayYQUDayis7Qne6313", "creatorUsername": "SIMOROBO", "creatorName": "SIMOROBO", "createdTime": 1702770595832, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSIMOROBO%2FOkHB_V0imv.png?alt=media&token=fd87ab66-75e6-46b9-8c8f-b945f8327307", "closeTime": 1715735520557, "question": "Will GPT-5 be publicly released before Ilya Sutskever leaves OpenAI?", "slug": "will-gpt5-be-publicly-released-befo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SIMOROBO/will-gpt5-be-publicly-released-befo", "pool": {"NO": 32.434680321019755, "YES": 3568.7827096084234}, "probability": 0.010427659558404277, "p": 0.5369178379111287, "totalLiquidity": 410, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4251.3301223568515, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715735520557, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "S67z2NQPG2ayYQUDayis7Qne6313", "uniqueBettorCount": 26, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715735520557, "lastBetTime": 1715729480247, "lastCommentTime": 1715733132762, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if a major successor to GPT-4, referred to as \"GPT-5\" or another name (rebrand), becomes publicly available before Ilya Sutskever's employment at OpenAI ends.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "A \"major successor\" is defined as a significantly improved model over GPT-4, excluding minor updates, and single domain specialists (e.g., a programming or math product that outperforms GPT-4 in those domains but not significantly otherwise). It also excludes optimized models of GPT-4 with similar quality performance but improved speed or cost.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"Publicly available\" means accessible in any commercial manner, including free access, subscription models, external developer APIs, or Bing integration, pending official confirmation.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT-5: YES", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chat 5: YES", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT-4.5: NO", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT-4.5-Turbo: NO", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Roboto: YES (if major release); NO (if minor update or single domain).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sutskever's departure is effective from the date he ceases employment at OpenAI, regardless of any ongoing advisory or board roles. Announced future departures are not considered until the specified date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SIMOROBO/will-gpt5-be-publicly-released-befo-5c86a46a3bac", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SimonParadis%2Fbe5044f1edaa.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["openai", "gpt5-speculation", "ai-safety", "ai", "technology-default"], "textDescription": "This resolves YES if a major successor to GPT-4, referred to as \"GPT-5\" or another name (rebrand), becomes publicly available before Ilya Sutskever's employment at OpenAI ends.\n\nA \"major successor\" is defined as a significantly improved model over GPT-4, excluding minor updates, and single domain specialists (e.g., a programming or math product that outperforms GPT-4 in those domains but not significantly otherwise). It also excludes optimized models of GPT-4 with similar quality performance but improved speed or cost.\n\n\"Publicly available\" means accessible in any commercial manner, including free access, subscription models, external developer APIs, or Bing integration, pending official confirmation.\n\n\nExamples:\n\nGPT-5: YES\n\nChat 5: YES\n\nGPT-4.5: NO\n\nGPT-4.5-Turbo: NO\n\nRoboto: YES (if major release); NO (if minor update or single domain).\n\n\nSutskever's departure is effective from the date he ceases employment at OpenAI, regardless of any ongoing advisory or board roles. Announced future departures are not considered until the specified date.\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SIMOROBO/will-gpt5-be-publicly-released-befo-5c86a46a3bac)"}, {"id": "8lq4B5mg0RfrhztPAaqM", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1709579412019, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1712095256607, "question": "On April Fools, will Dune 2 audience score on Rotten Tomatoes be higher then Manifold's Approval? (Q1 Poll Index)", "slug": "on-april-fools-will-dune-2-audience", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/on-april-fools-will-dune-2-audience", "pool": {"NO": 3031.58853048163, "YES": 97.44807528411859}, "probability": 0.9896915321064771, "p": 0.7552673263107186, "totalLiquidity": 280, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2796.4114695183703, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712095256607, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712095256607, "lastBetTime": 1712095243226, "lastCommentTime": 1710800219140, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using Manifold's POLL INDEX which is determined by a poll at the end of the quarter, NOT MARKET INDEX.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83d\udd17Link 1: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83d\udd17Link 2: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "pFFUDpIVKIuWjFU8yL7B", "label": "/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "movies", "television-film", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "manifold-6748e065087e", "hollywood", "internet", "manifold-business-future", "dune", "manifold-users", "rotten-tomatoes", "science-fiction", "public-opinion", "derivative-markets", "approval-ratings", "personal-opinion", "reviews"], "textDescription": "Using Manifold's POLL INDEX which is determined by a poll at the end of the quarter, NOT MARKET INDEX.\n\n\ud83d\udd17Link 1: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two\n\n\ud83d\udd17Link 2: @/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating \n\n"}, {"id": "vif1sTAUyodXfHRZngNZ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704116391868, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704190800000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-01-02 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-70ec8beada77", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-70ec8beada77", "pool": {"NO": 70.06127439548528, "YES": 69.66094988082843}, "probability": 0.153583184051288, "p": 0.15283974838801742, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 30, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704278216786, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704278217077, "lastBetTime": 1704189628868, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-02 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-02 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=01&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=01&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Ff044eabbbc3b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-02 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-02 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "oCZ9fPLjKqtliSAN4wxm", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702753962149, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1702854000000, "question": "Will XLM close higher on December 17 than it closed on December 16?", "slug": "will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-1-7bf2206dda21", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-1-7bf2206dda21", "pool": {"NO": 104.46828904330165, "YES": 211.24650585366868}, "probability": 0.3318072426162681, "p": 0.5010299159054523, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 273.4483409184283, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702863917026, "resolutionProbability": 0.33, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702863912340, "lastBetTime": 1702853753547, "lastCommentTime": 1702863911589, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.1249", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F12e7050e02d2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "crypto-prices", "sccsq4", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $0.1249\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "LFusgn3snlqxKPU1st6o", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703883774449, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704018000000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2023-12-31 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-8504caac8e94", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-8504caac8e94", "pool": {"NO": 64.13514981453277, "YES": 120.00000000000003}, "probability": 0.07359652137228899, "p": 0.12940690775097421, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 50, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704055342165, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704055342409, "lastBetTime": 1704015957433, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-31 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Ff381bd82121b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-31 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "Ep9FNV0Ab1lDGIOxOC6T", "creatorId": "cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3", "creatorUsername": "pa", "creatorName": "PedroA", "createdTime": 1710455205942, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtee8W-AS6HtIUteOIjSMBI-pGI8Iq6PnPJYlJs17w=s96-c", "closeTime": 1715655975773, "question": "Will OpenAI release a new GPT model before July 2024?", "slug": "will-openai-release-a-new-gpt-model-3c53fba38061", "url": "https://manifold.markets/pa/will-openai-release-a-new-gpt-model-3c53fba38061", "pool": {"NO": 2076.331552517079, "YES": 465.81217650213983}, "probability": 0.8955790869747652, "p": 0.6580159609184425, "totalLiquidity": 825, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5219.724537313635, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715655975773, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "resolverId": "cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3", "uniqueBettorCount": 32, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715655975773, "lastBetTime": 1715649136013, "lastCommentTime": 1715649152227, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ai", "openai", "gpt4-speculation"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "NInS5bYkQ3rtbfbIVwBI", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1716697200859, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1716856200000, "question": "(Game 3) Will Edmonton Oilers beat Dallas Stars on May 27 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs)", "slug": "game-3-will-edmonton-oilers-beat-da", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/game-3-will-edmonton-oilers-beat-da", "pool": {"NO": 1194.0301413251748, "YES": 837.4997961861906}, "probability": 0.5877492225331751, "p": 0.5, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 305, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1716871720913, "resolutionProbability": 0.59, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716856200000, "lastBetTime": 1716842180281, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The series is tied ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "1-1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars on May 27", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Oilers+vs+Stars#sie=m;/g/11vxml4dfj;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 7:30pm CST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "7:30pm CST on May 27", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/mlb-spring-training-mar-7-all-games", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenW/8a3e00bb333a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sports-betting", "sports-default", "culture-default", "hockey", "nhl"], "textDescription": "The series is tied 1-1\n\nEdmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars on May 27\n\nGame starts 7:30pm CST\n\nThis market closes at 7:30pm CST on May 27\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nHockey games don't tie.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/mlb-spring-training-mar-7-all-games)"}, {"id": "g00qMeztMGMzCgUfg7QZ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707687866933, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707807600000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-13 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-2007ea9bad12", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-2007ea9bad12", "pool": {"NO": 66.57570537921737, "YES": 100.00000000000001}, "probability": 0.08077986107407041, "p": 0.11660631835631136, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 30, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707851184584, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707851186671, "lastBetTime": 1707687974217, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-13 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-13 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=13", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=13", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Ff8efb38b315f.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-13 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-13 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "RcRNH2IO1Zgv1uSXO7TZ", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1710694731823, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1715789108833, "question": "Will \"The Idea of You\" (inspired by Harry Styles fan fic) have a Metacritic score >70?", "slug": "will-the-idea-of-you-inspired-by-ha", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-idea-of-you-inspired-by-ha", "pool": {"NO": 22.169515720719232, "YES": 2064.733357703408}, "probability": 0.010000000000000002, "p": 0.4847343317248378, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2331.0668468196905, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715789108833, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715789108833, "lastBetTime": 1715789096876, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Idea of You\" (2024) Metacritic page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-idea-of-you/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-idea-of-you/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve based on the Metascore (i.e. critics, not audiences) on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "May 16th ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(two weeks after it releases on Prime Video).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\"The Idea of You\" just premiered at SXSW, and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "some reviews have already been released", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\u2014I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Metascore might shift a good deal.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example: the Metascore for", "type": "text"}, {"text": " \"Red White & Royal Blue\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/red-white-royal-blue/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (the previous hit with the same romantic lead) is currently 62.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Idea of You\" (2024) releases May 2nd on Amazon Prime. It stars Anne Hathaway as a divorced mother who takes her teen daughter to Coachella and ENTERS a surprise romance with a young pop superstar (played by Nicholas Galitzine). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Infamously, the story was originally derived from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Harry Styles fanfic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://graziamagazine.com/us/articles/anne-hathaway-film-harry-styles-fan-fiction-the-idea-of-you/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The trailer ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "supposedly set the record for the most-watched trailer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deadline.com/2024/03/anne-hathaway-the-idea-of-you-trailer-record-sxsw-1235860352/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for any streaming original film.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["movies", "entertainment", "television-film", "culture-default", "media-rating-futures", "boxoffice", "hollywood"], "textDescription": "\"The Idea of You\" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-idea-of-you/\n\nI will resolve based on the Metascore (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 16th (two weeks after it releases on Prime Video).\n\nDetails\n\nNOTE: \"The Idea of You\" just premiered at SXSW, and some reviews have already been released\u2014I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Metascore might shift a good deal.\n\nI will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).\n\nExample: the Metascore for \"Red White & Royal Blue\" (the previous hit with the same romantic lead) is currently 62.\n\nContext\n\n\"The Idea of You\" (2024) releases May 2nd on Amazon Prime. It stars Anne Hathaway as a divorced mother who takes her teen daughter to Coachella and ENTERS a surprise romance with a young pop superstar (played by Nicholas Galitzine). \n\nInfamously, the story was originally derived from Harry Styles fanfic.\n\nThe trailer supposedly set the record for the most-watched trailer for any streaming original film."}, {"id": "d8pUNwgVigCD3SsE5H8r", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1702868051959, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1702935000000, "question": "Will Silver close higher Dec 18 than Dec 15? (XAG/USD Daily)", "slug": "will-silver-close-higher-dec-18-tha", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-silver-close-higher-dec-18-tha", "pool": {"NO": 108.65118697959855, "YES": 419.8246781206503}, "probability": 0.09047462158197113, "p": 0.2776478948269016, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 268.1580114539836, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702938724708, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702938721581, "lastBetTime": 1702934987912, "lastCommentTime": 1702938720911, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Silver Spot daily ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "candle", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investing.com/currencies/xag-usd-candlestick", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " closes at 5pm EST (10pm UTC).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes 30 mins earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FUIT58KbXwA.png?alt=media&token=5f1f7e83-ab26-4ce9-9e1a-6b6c66748768", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves from CNBC's ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Prev Close/Chart", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/XAG=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " or Investing's ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investing.com/currencies/xag-usd-historical-data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other Markets", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gold", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts?q=XAU&s=newest&f=all&ct=ALL&tab=questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Silver ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts?q=XAG&s=newest&f=all&ct=ALL&tab=questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Platinum", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts?q=XPT&s=newest&f=all&ct=ALL&tab=questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currencies", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts?q=Currency&s=newest&f=all&ct=ALL&tab=questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Weekly", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts?q=weekly&s=newest&f=all&ct=ALL&tab=questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F06212b77b807.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["silver", "xag", "finance", "commodities", "spot-price", "stocks", "sccsq4", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Silver Spot daily candle closes at 5pm EST (10pm UTC).\n\nThis market closes 30 mins earlier.\n\n[image]Resolves from CNBC's Prev Close/Chart or Investing's Historical Data\n\nOther Markets\n\nGold\n\nSilver \n\nPlatinum\n\nCurrencies\n\nWeekly\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "aGEiDCkZvy6bpLSEgqr5", "creatorId": "iPIwiy5uHBUuXKW43XoIXg15PKW2", "creatorUsername": "howahlah", "creatorName": "howahlah", "createdTime": 1710795108854, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhowahlah%2FIo-WKZQAT4.webp?alt=media&token=dc3be555-03e2-4b4b-806a-8ad38ae98918", "closeTime": 1711781940000, "question": "Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' (2024) have a higher Rotten Tomatoes score than 'Ghostbusters: Afterlife' (2021)?", "slug": "will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202-6621ac60bedc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/howahlah/will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202-6621ac60bedc", "pool": {"NO": 32.09183426666191, "YES": 1694.1502000464739}, "probability": 0.0170403278194625, "p": 0.4778519003220445, "totalLiquidity": 240, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2197.1478839320325, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711782562349, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "iPIwiy5uHBUuXKW43XoIXg15PKW2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711781940000, "lastBetTime": 1711778751175, "lastCommentTime": 1711782553005, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ghostbusters: Afterlife", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/ghostbusters_afterlife", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (2021) received a Tomatometer (critics\u2019 score) of 64%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/ghostbusters_frozen_empire", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (2024) receives a score of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "65% or higher", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " one week after release", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if it receives 64% or lower", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/howahlah/will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202-74399d52ae73", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ghostbusters", "television-film", "movies", "entertainment", "rotten-tomatoes"], "textDescription": "Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2021) received a Tomatometer (critics\u2019 score) of 64%\n\nResolves YES if Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (2024) receives a score of 65% or higher one week after release\n\nResolves NO if it receives 64% or lower\n\nRelated market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/howahlah/will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202-74399d52ae73)"}, {"id": "COCVtqKHVMK22hPWqMTG", "creatorId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "creatorUsername": "MP", "creatorName": "MP", "createdTime": 1703104778212, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf", "closeTime": 1703286711687, "question": "Will Alireza Firouzja win both his games against Sergey Fedorchuk?", "slug": "will-alireza-firouzja-win-both-his", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MP/will-alireza-firouzja-win-both-his", "pool": {"NO": 20.367265851096846, "YES": 25.932193390927722}, "probability": 0.010000000000000014, "p": 0.012697596415746389, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 841.9640062137586, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703286711687, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206815623, "lastBetTime": 1703267965776, "lastCommentTime": 1703303228045, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Self-describing. GM Alireza Firouzja will play to classic games against GM Sergey Fedorchuk, a match full of controversy, including of match fixing.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/MP%2F5e110d1b0ed4.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["chess", "chess-candidates-2024"], "textDescription": "Self-describing. GM Alireza Firouzja will play to classic games against GM Sergey Fedorchuk, a match full of controversy, including of match fixing.\n\nI may bet on this market."}, {"id": "gVk0W0eCXcjdlaKsDXU2", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703082302624, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703372400000, "question": "Will DOT close higher on December 23 than it closed on December 22?", "slug": "will-dot-close-higher-on-december-2-e089b4a72994", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-2-e089b4a72994", "pool": {"NO": 493.04477626449574, "YES": 45.39310639529573}, "probability": 0.8974668404312982, "p": 0.4462460870320094, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 694.9840469224192, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703379551803, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703379548162, "lastBetTime": 1703372106101, "lastCommentTime": 1703379547686, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "hawsbollah", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "h6dptphMTz2TgVa1FPFM", "creatorId": "CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2", "creatorUsername": "Carrotcake", "creatorName": "Supreme Carrot", "createdTime": 1708404212927, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKoffiEklou%2FoLHseamulM.PNG?alt=media&token=12629652-5628-4754-ac9e-2dfe7bfd842f", "closeTime": 1713066550222, "question": "Will Bo Nickal beat Cody Brundage at UFC 300?", "slug": "will-bo-nickal-beat-cody-beundage-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Carrotcake/will-bo-nickal-beat-cody-beundage-a", "pool": {"NO": 2398.69858729252, "YES": 56.404152761919086}, "probability": 0.99, "p": 0.69951323871009, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2353.6243357562753, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1713066550222, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713066550222, "lastBetTime": 1713062191263, "lastCommentTime": 1709428595218, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022This market will resolve in a YES if Bo Nickal wins the fight. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022A draw will resolve in a NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022A defeat of Bo Nickal will result in a NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022A disqualification of Bo Nickal will be considered a loss.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 The market will resolve NO if the fight gets cancelled ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 The market will resolve in a YES in case Cody Brundage is disqualified.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 A disqualification of Cody Brundage will result in a YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 A Forfeit by Cody Brundage will result in a No", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fbb_kfV8mP1.png?alt=media&token=79a35a28-badd-4777-ba18-7ff13dcf0e39", "groupSlugs": ["ufc", "fighting", "mma", "ufc-300"], "textDescription": "\u2022This market will resolve in a YES if Bo Nickal wins the fight. \n\n\u2022A draw will resolve in a NO. \n\n\u2022A defeat of Bo Nickal will result in a NO.\n\n\u2022A disqualification of Bo Nickal will be considered a loss.\n\n\u2022 The market will resolve NO if the fight gets cancelled \n\n\u2022 The market will resolve in a YES in case Cody Brundage is disqualified.\n\n\u2022 A disqualification of Cody Brundage will result in a YES.\n\n\u2022 A Forfeit by Cody Brundage will result in a No"}, {"id": "Lss1uMAymUET1W6jq2yQ", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1707544485734, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1707803533269, "question": "\ud83c\udfd2Will the Vegas Golden Knights beat Minnesota Wild on Feb 12?", "slug": "will-the-vegas-golden-knights-beat-31e58f0faa46", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-vegas-golden-knights-beat-31e58f0faa46", "pool": {"NO": 5.079982570704752, "YES": 2269.9087565163913}, "probability": 0.0011439736431787747, "p": 0.3385157142540684, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4776.896926732947, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707803533269, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707803533975, "lastBetTime": 1707803234872, "lastCommentTime": 1707803361879, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild @9pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=knights+vs+wild#sie=m;/g/11svwd6kgt;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Vegas Golden Knights win. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F41c806bcf019.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hockey", "yuna-league-beta", "fun", "vegas-golden-knights", "nhl", "sports-default", "entertainment", "minnesota-wild", "sports-betting", "technology-default"], "textDescription": "Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild @9pm CST\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Vegas Golden Knights win. \n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws"}, {"id": "FmJGpnlHTtKEnDD0q1Uo", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1707282976590, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1707363000000, "question": "\ud83c\udfd2Will the Toronto Maple Leafs beat Dallas Stars on Feb 7?", "slug": "will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-beat-d-5496575d5ecf", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-beat-d-5496575d5ecf", "pool": {"NO": 3238.8907538627045, "YES": 87.30550695630605}, "probability": 0.9948047611178167, "p": 0.837702403209361, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3916.699579291302, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707365784883, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707365785128, "lastBetTime": 1707360396283, "lastCommentTime": 1707365766319, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=leafs+vs+stars#sie=m;/g/11v150spmw;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Toronto Maple Leafs win. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F6c334ae88d86.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["dallas-stars", "yuna-league-beta", "hockey", "nhl", "ice-hockey", "sports-default", "toronto-maple-leafs"], "textDescription": "Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars @6pm CST\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Toronto Maple Leafs win. \n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n"}, {"id": "Fhn5IoGDdAd2i1O9BOkD", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706733536660, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706888100000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-02 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-1125c659f79d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-1125c659f79d", "pool": {"NO": 92.4187649918886, "YES": 303.07840479116356}, "probability": 0.04371297084058035, "p": 0.1303631443870037, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 218.88829558436072, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706961627046, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706961627383, "lastBetTime": 1706887718953, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-02 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-02 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fcd52911b0ac8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-02 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-02 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "UEtHscuiYR5wyUBmDhRr", "creatorId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "creatorUsername": "PunishedFurry", "creatorName": "Punished Furry", "createdTime": 1709284654672, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709714590213, "question": "Will Vaush's main youtube channel fall below 452k subs in March 2024?", "slug": "will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-317f0f4d5225", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-317f0f4d5225", "pool": {"NO": 10320, "YES": 13.32311588527591}, "probability": 0.9991285980483519, "p": 0.59681145745616, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10120, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709714590213, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218357419, "lastBetTime": 1709714553750, "lastCommentTime": 1709714579047, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vaush has been losing subs since his nsfw loli folder leaked", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDMfQSnJOGo.png?alt=media&token=394d72ce-fa16-4f58-8e0a-92699bae6780", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Vaush's youtube fall below 452k subs in March 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "4FMeUatNCWQEwt0tVnDD,FRePcpPiF50PXbYzfwb4,0UUAOKtqLwvXZXSyTTAC,lLjuRaYp7jW38ah0pt2Q,CEWJGYjob6rfvf7NUB6N"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/PunishedFurry%2F970a611c5eb9.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "celebrities"], "textDescription": "Vaush has been losing subs since his nsfw loli folder leaked\n\n[image]Will Vaush's youtube fall below 452k subs in March 2024?\n\nhttps://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_\n\nRelated Markets:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "0lzozLPwbMkyXk8afcJ3", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1709361790498, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1711030255563, "question": "Will the Reddit IPO share price be $31-34 as stated in their plans?", "slug": "will-the-reddit-ipo-share-price-be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-reddit-ipo-share-price-be", "pool": {"NO": 5464.33733562458, "YES": 53.45728072824181}, "probability": 0.9967084140246275, "p": 0.7476227402943117, "totalLiquidity": 220, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5255, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711030255563, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711030255563, "lastBetTime": 1711030247378, "lastCommentTime": 1710976123883, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Values that will resolve: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "31.XX - 34.XX", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "29.99, 30.99 or 35.00 will not count as YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/reddit-seeking-a-valuation-of-up-to-6point5-billion-in-ipo.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/reddit-seeking-a-valuation-of-up-to-6point5-billion-in-ipo.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "stocks", "internet", "tech-stocks", "reddit", "prices", "social-media", "ipo-valuation"], "textDescription": "Values that will resolve: \n\n31.XX - 34.XX\n\n29.99, 30.99 or 35.00 will not count as YES\n\nLink: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/reddit-seeking-a-valuation-of-up-to-6point5-billion-in-ipo.html"}, {"id": "cAtKt0glnkYU8zB4Zj5t", "creatorId": "Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2", "creatorUsername": "HarryHayfield", "creatorName": "Harry Hayfield", "createdTime": 1711381240496, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714604340000, "question": "Blackpool South by-election: Will the swing to Labour be greater or smaller than Wirral South in 1997?", "slug": "blackpool-south-byelection-will-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/HarryHayfield/blackpool-south-byelection-will-the", "pool": {"NO": 325.6400367039625, "YES": 276.66686239855807}, "probability": 0.5804201832042496, "p": 0.5402924525607947, "totalLiquidity": 300, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 156, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1714720502183, "resolutionProbability": 0.58, "resolverId": "Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714720555317, "lastBetTime": 1714602858063, "lastCommentTime": 1714720554418, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Wirral South by-election in February 1997 was the last by-election of the 1992 - 1997 Parliament and recorded a swing to Labour of 17.3%, the Blackpool South by-election caused by the resignation of Scott Benton following a recall petition being gathered, is likely to be the last by-election of this Parliament, therefore will the swing to Labour in Blackpool South be greater than 17.3% or smaller than 17.3%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question will resolve as YES if the swing is greater than 17.3% and NO if the swing is lower", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "elections", "-2019-parliament-byelections", "uk-elections-20240502"], "textDescription": "The Wirral South by-election in February 1997 was the last by-election of the 1992 - 1997 Parliament and recorded a swing to Labour of 17.3%, the Blackpool South by-election caused by the resignation of Scott Benton following a recall petition being gathered, is likely to be the last by-election of this Parliament, therefore will the swing to Labour in Blackpool South be greater than 17.3% or smaller than 17.3%\n\nQuestion will resolve as YES if the swing is greater than 17.3% and NO if the swing is lower"}, {"id": "gPg6dNpKqXmsXTEPz1Sm", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1705322899919, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1705959530644, "question": "Will any Republican candidate deny the result of the Iowa Republican presidential Caucus?", "slug": "will-any-republican-candidate-deny", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-any-republican-candidate-deny", "pool": {"NO": 144.89000216319744, "YES": 11772.674918792614}, "probability": 0.0031213591486942403, "p": 0.20281396906532317, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 13906.601713108892, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705959530644, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710219651653, "lastBetTime": 1705956544788, "lastCommentTime": 1705959521054, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Iowa Caucus to be the Republican nominee in the 2024 Presidential election takes place today.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the results become clear, will any of the following candidates claim that the results were fraudulent?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Donald Trump", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ron DeSantis", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nikki Haley", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vivek Ramaswamy", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Asa Hutchinson", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The caucus process is complicated, but the Republican party puts out a popular vote total which looks something like this:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any candidate claims that the vote totals are fake/fraudulent, this market resolves to YES. This includes a candidate who claims that they got more votes than their opponents when the results indicate that they did not, but it also includes a candidate saying that the position was right but that the votes are inaccurate (eg. \"the fake results say that I won by 20% but I actually won by 40%\").", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What doesn't count?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Procedural complaints such as saying that the process was unfair but that the vote totals are still accurate (eg. a candidate saying that they would have won if there had been a delay for the weather conditions)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Complaining that their opponents won votes by making false claims, threats, etc. but not denying that they really did get those votes", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything to do with the process/delegates (eg. agreeing that the vote totals are accurate but claiming that they will get more delegates than the media is reporting)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The claim must be made by the end of the day (Midnight EST) on Sunday. If there is no evidence of any such claims by Monday, I will resolve the market to NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SimonGrayson%2F91ffa577f986.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["donald-trump", "magaland", "2024-republican-primaries", "2024-primaries", "nikki-haley", "vivek-ramaswamy", "ron-desantis", "iowa-caucuses", "asa-hutchinson"], "textDescription": "The Iowa Caucus to be the Republican nominee in the 2024 Presidential election takes place today.\n\nOnce the results become clear, will any of the following candidates claim that the results were fraudulent?\n\nDonald Trump\n\nRon DeSantis\n\nNikki Haley\n\nVivek Ramaswamy\n\nAsa Hutchinson\n\nThe caucus process is complicated, but the Republican party puts out a popular vote total which looks something like this:\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses\n\nIf any candidate claims that the vote totals are fake/fraudulent, this market resolves to YES. This includes a candidate who claims that they got more votes than their opponents when the results indicate that they did not, but it also includes a candidate saying that the position was right but that the votes are inaccurate (eg. \"the fake results say that I won by 20% but I actually won by 40%\").\n\nWhat doesn't count?\n\nProcedural complaints such as saying that the process was unfair but that the vote totals are still accurate (eg. a candidate saying that they would have won if there had been a delay for the weather conditions)\n\nComplaining that their opponents won votes by making false claims, threats, etc. but not denying that they really did get those votes\n\nAnything to do with the process/delegates (eg. agreeing that the vote totals are accurate but claiming that they will get more delegates than the media is reporting)\n\nThe claim must be made by the end of the day (Midnight EST) on Sunday. If there is no evidence of any such claims by Monday, I will resolve the market to NO."}, {"id": "BrNCnEkBKx5Z6VSKNnwf", "creatorId": "M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2", "creatorUsername": "NivlacM", "creatorName": "NivlacM", "createdTime": 1702414818778, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1705958556988, "question": "Did kenshin9000 \"beat all chess engines\" (with or without GPT-4)?", "slug": "did-kenshin9000-beat-all-chess-engi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/NivlacM/did-kenshin9000-beat-all-chess-engi", "pool": {"NO": 334.861894689867, "YES": 2075.767030572486}, "probability": 0.01811206560500331, "p": 0.10261222137865773, "totalLiquidity": 427.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3950.6459659728903, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705958556988, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2", "uniqueBettorCount": 21, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705958636076, "lastBetTime": 1705418909145, "lastCommentTime": 1705958634317, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tweet embed:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1734238211088506967"}}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "3. Approximately 10 days later, I will release a full chess engine based on GPT4, whose code/prompts anyone will be able to inspect and run against any other chess engine. GPT4's \"performant output\" will beat every other chess engine in existence in a tournament of any size.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A more permissive version of:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira/did-kenshin9000-on-twitter-beat-all", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES or NO if there's consensus.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it's ambiguous, the resolution will be \"Does Kenshin's code win a game against Stockfish?\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he never releases code or he releases code that isn't a functioning chess engine, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he releases his code and a moderator sees this market, please close it for trading.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The system does not need to use GPT-4 in any way. It may use GPT-4 though. I will resolve YES if it beats stock Stockfish.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if no code is released before the end date Jan 16th", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/NivlacM%2F272fb5601d21.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["ai", "gpt4-speculation", "chess"], "textDescription": "Tweet embed:\n\n[tweet]3. Approximately 10 days later, I will release a full chess engine based on GPT4, whose code/prompts anyone will be able to inspect and run against any other chess engine. GPT4's \"performant output\" will beat every other chess engine in existence in a tournament of any size.\n\nA more permissive version of:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira/did-kenshin9000-on-twitter-beat-all)Resolves YES or NO if there's consensus.\n\nIf it's ambiguous, the resolution will be \"Does Kenshin's code win a game against Stockfish?\"\n\nIf he never releases code or he releases code that isn't a functioning chess engine, resolves NO.\n\nIf he releases his code and a moderator sees this market, please close it for trading.\n\nThe system does not need to use GPT-4 in any way. It may use GPT-4 though. I will resolve YES if it beats stock Stockfish.\n\nResolves NO if no code is released before the end date Jan 16th"}, {"id": "Sm8G8LrTNmX8EHDyKD72", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1705510787498, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1705708800000, "question": "($250M Subsidy) Will the Detroit Red Wings beat Carolina Hurricanes on Jan 19? (Prediction Market)", "slug": "250m-subsidy-will-the-detroit-red-w", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/250m-subsidy-will-the-detroit-red-w", "pool": {"NO": 295.06172262443766, "YES": 640.4376025469777}, "probability": 0.3499999999999999, "p": 0.538903190284841, "totalLiquidity": 460.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 349.30507567436945, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705727063589, "resolutionProbability": 0.35, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705727063798, "lastBetTime": 1705705407367, "lastCommentTime": 1705727051935, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a predictive sports market. That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 6:00pm CST and sit back.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Detroit Red Wings vs Carolina Hurricanes @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=red+wings+vs+hurricanes", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game start at 6:00pm CST.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 6:00pm CST ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Detroit Red Wings win.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FLMFYvVftfQ.png?alt=media&token=fe11763b-bf08-4698-897d-1b06d4dac08d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F04896665c9b3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nhl", "hockey", "sports-default", "detroit-red-wings", "carolina-hurricanes", "ice-hockey", "yuna-league-beta"], "textDescription": "This is a predictive sports market. That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 6:00pm CST and sit back.\n\n \n\nDetroit Red Wings vs Carolina Hurricanes @6pm CST\n\nGame start at 6:00pm CST.\n\nThis market closes at 6:00pm CST \n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Detroit Red Wings win.\n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "SyuXGvNoPXexiU5UXKpO", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1715446886346, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1715553000000, "question": "(Game 4) Will Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers on May 12 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs)", "slug": "game-4-will-boston-bruins-beat-flor", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/game-4-will-boston-bruins-beat-flor", "pool": {"NO": 810.1715360621334, "YES": 1257.3216009834691}, "probability": 0.37179347593221707, "p": 0.4787534472275088, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 712.6718215410698, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715563392150, "resolutionProbability": 0.37, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715553000000, "lastBetTime": 1715543876699, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Florida Panthers are leading the series ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2-1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers on May 12", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Bruins+vs+Panthers#sie=m;/g/11y48mnpv1;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 5:30pm CST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "5:30pm CST on May 12", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenW/d192fe061ba3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sports-betting", "sports-default", "culture-default", "nhl", "hockey"], "textDescription": "Florida Panthers are leading the series 2-1\n\nBoston Bruins vs Florida Panthers on May 12\n\nGame starts 5:30pm CST\n\nThis market closes at 5:30pm CST on May 12\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death"}, {"id": "Y2l6IsS8Qnl7PMQy8zSj", "creatorId": "xPEZQYvILhM1WCuzGJUj7c27Ebi1", "creatorUsername": "SxP", "creatorName": "SxP", "createdTime": 1710227162284, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZzFvzcXXicfZ8fLWQCacFQX4Yl_Cc6OO3ZJWVqPw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1717103335781, "question": "Was Kate Middleton's Mother's Day photo heavily forged and not just lightly edited as claimed by the official story?", "slug": "was-kate-middletons-mothers-day-pho", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SxP/was-kate-middletons-mothers-day-pho", "pool": {"NO": 1146.5494952316121, "YES": 845.5738512978604}, "probability": 0.5566388228157988, "p": 0.4807682672513353, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2103.834749553889, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1717103335781, "resolutionProbability": 0.56, "resolverId": "xPEZQYvILhM1WCuzGJUj7c27Ebi1", "uniqueBettorCount": 38, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717103696116, "lastBetTime": 1716942974564, "lastCommentTime": 1717103685836, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kate Middleton released a photo on Mother's day of her family", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1766750995445387393"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "She claimed (via the Twitter account) that the photo was lightly edited.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1767135566645092616"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The more drastic theories say that the photo heavily forged.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1767154095238897954"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to YES if there is an official statement by the British Royal Family that says the original photo was heavily forged (colors of clothing changed, compositing beyond amateur photo editing, etc.) rather than just minor edits like erasing blemishes or changing hue & saturation. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will also resolve to YES if multiple major press outlets agree that the photo was heavily doctors rather than edited by Kate herself.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["celebrities", "politics-default", "kate-middleton", "british-royal-family", "royalty"], "textDescription": "Kate Middleton released a photo on Mother's day of her family\n\n[tweet]She claimed (via the Twitter account) that the photo was lightly edited.\n\n[tweet]The more drastic theories say that the photo heavily forged.\n\n[tweet]This question will resolve to YES if there is an official statement by the British Royal Family that says the original photo was heavily forged (colors of clothing changed, compositing beyond amateur photo editing, etc.) rather than just minor edits like erasing blemishes or changing hue & saturation. \n\n\nThe question will also resolve to YES if multiple major press outlets agree that the photo was heavily doctors rather than edited by Kate herself."}, {"id": "mUWis1CrExL5MYdj3t9h", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703080350325, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703286000000, "question": "Will XMR close higher on December 22 than it closed on December 21?", "slug": "will-xmr-close-higher-on-december-2-803cade229b4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xmr-close-higher-on-december-2-803cade229b4", "pool": {"NO": 1515.4494678189353, "YES": 80.41516332879809}, "probability": 0.98, "p": 0.7222311010006937, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1679.0330540435798, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703291389938, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703291374496, "lastBetTime": 1703285921221, "lastCommentTime": 1703291373748, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/XMR-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2Fb405f4f6f557.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "hawsbollah", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "qwwje4fY4O4JOpV5Ikta", "creatorId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "creatorUsername": "mattyb", "creatorName": "Matty B", "createdTime": 1705109204579, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmattyb%2Feq8TCTaQW_.jpeg?alt=media&token=b8632c4a-5f41-4148-a6aa-3b42c0d89c03", "closeTime": 1710271456340, "question": "\ud83d\udc3c vs. \ud83e\udeb1: Will Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) have a better opening weekend than Dune: Part Two (2024)?", "slug": "-vs-will-kung-fu-panda-4-2024-have", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mattyb/-vs-will-kung-fu-panda-4-2024-have", "pool": {"NO": 111.03635917780048, "YES": 18696.586523757927}, "probability": 0.0027026185254936013, "p": 0.31333162317811275, "totalLiquidity": 610, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 20858.092332716526, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710271456340, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "uniqueBettorCount": 34, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710271457472, "lastBetTime": 1710271450827, "lastCommentTime": 1710269782444, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21692408/?ref_=bo_se_r_1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " opens March 8th and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dune: Part Two (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/?ref_=bo_se_r_1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " opens March 1st. Which movie will make more money in its opening weekend?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will Resolve when the actuals come in for Kung Fu Panda (likely on Monday/Tuesday).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also bet on", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "lj1dRQ0rTSwBDKKmoOlo,AAYXWb9dRBFuBzDnthuo"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mattyb%2Fd1d5cf8395a6.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["movies", "television-film", "boxoffice", "dune", "animals", "cartoons-animations", "animated-movies", "timothee-chalamet", "timothee-chalamet-1f3dcb6c13ca", "martial-arts", "film-battles", "pandas", "dreamworks"], "textDescription": "Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) opens March 8th and Dune: Part Two (2024) opens March 1st. Which movie will make more money in its opening weekend?\n\nThis will Resolve when the actuals come in for Kung Fu Panda (likely on Monday/Tuesday).\n\nAlso bet on\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "AnfMsYlxvMr3fwmuLMPN", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1709872820185, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1710129653960, "question": "Will there be a SURPRISING UPSET at the Oscars? (Winner <10% according Manifold)", "slug": "will-there-be-a-surprising-upset-at", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-there-be-a-surprising-upset-at", "pool": {"NO": 6.320271010898523, "YES": 3376.754749730236}, "probability": 0.001815151834731868, "p": 0.4927852376144223, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3308.36157713463, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710129653960, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710129654565, "lastBetTime": 1710129647723, "lastCommentTime": 1710129642092, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION BEFORE BETTING\u00a0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if there is a (non-shorts) winner at the 96th Academy Awards who Manifold gave ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "less than 10% ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "chance to win the Oscar.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A.K.A. a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SURPRISING UPSET.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The source for the probability of the Oscar nominees is defined by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this spreadsheet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1S2wS_wIFaIoECMgUosOMuCAWDa93_Eq3wPdarKV_ouA/edit?usp=sharing", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (<10% is highlighted in orange).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I repeat: this market does ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " refer to any probability that you might find on Manifold, it is solely defined by the linked spreadsheet (computed right before market creation).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This does not include the three \"shorts\" categories: only the 20 feature film categories are eligible.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Further details:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This spreadsheet reflects my best good faith attempt to compute the \"average probability for each winner according to Manifold\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rough process: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) Gather many markets from Manifold (~70 or so).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) Take the mean for each category/nominee.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(3) Normalize so the probabilities sum to 1.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Still, there is no single correct way to do this (e.g. which markets to include), some of the Manifold probabilities are bound to be a bit wonky, and probabilities might shift in the final few days, so bear all that in mind before betting.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask! ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["oscars-2024", "oscars", "movies"], "textDescription": "PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION BEFORE BETTING\u00a0\n\nThis market will resolve YES if there is a (non-shorts) winner at the 96th Academy Awards who Manifold gave less than 10% chance to win the Oscar.\n\nA.K.A. a SURPRISING UPSET.\n\nThe source for the probability of the Oscar nominees is defined by this spreadsheet (<10% is highlighted in orange).\n\nI repeat: this market does not refer to any probability that you might find on Manifold, it is solely defined by the linked spreadsheet (computed right before market creation).\n\nThis does not include the three \"shorts\" categories: only the 20 feature film categories are eligible.\n\nFurther details:\n\nThis spreadsheet reflects my best good faith attempt to compute the \"average probability for each winner according to Manifold\".\n\nRough process: \n\n(1) Gather many markets from Manifold (~70 or so).\n\n(2) Take the mean for each category/nominee.\n\n(3) Normalize so the probabilities sum to 1.\n\nStill, there is no single correct way to do this (e.g. which markets to include), some of the Manifold probabilities are bound to be a bit wonky, and probabilities might shift in the final few days, so bear all that in mind before betting.\n\nIf any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask! \n\n\n"}, {"id": "p0USYRP95RNdhddQ9GpC", "creatorId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "creatorUsername": "HenriThunberg", "creatorName": "Henri Thunberg", "createdTime": 1704199356137, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHenriThunberg%2FC4rMRuElGd.jpeg?alt=media&token=c119866f-2a78-4b4d-8fa3-77eaaa8c1e8b", "closeTime": 1704737128736, "question": "Will Apple Vision Pro be released on January 27?", "slug": "will-apple-vision-pro-be-released-o", "url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-apple-vision-pro-be-released-o", "pool": {"NO": 143.86868229185143, "YES": 3328.622872242472}, "probability": 0.009085317449088859, "p": 0.17500600723457824, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4330.4870742151115, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704737128736, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704737462034, "lastBetTime": 1704736938210, "lastCommentTime": 1704737461143, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Broad definition of released, as in purchase possible anywhere or booking of store appointments to purchase.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Basically a question on whether the rumor of Jan 27th has any substance, rather than technicalities or nitpicking around what constitutes released.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/HenriThunberg%2Fd9e32a1efef2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["apple", "apple-vision-pro", "virtual-reality"], "textDescription": "Broad definition of released, as in purchase possible anywhere or booking of store appointments to purchase.\n\nBasically a question on whether the rumor of Jan 27th has any substance, rather than technicalities or nitpicking around what constitutes released."}, {"id": "aG9ig46t8GgRHmjI3u3S", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706733453629, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706856300000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-02-02 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-0ed22e2f9c37", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-0ed22e2f9c37", "pool": {"NO": 75.86414548360253, "YES": 44.656412475311875}, "probability": 0.26221293917322963, "p": 0.17300980113150943, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 42.88376174016449, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706961564599, "resolutionProbability": 0.26, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706961564863, "lastBetTime": 1706854387874, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-02 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-02 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F7c8f088c25e3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-02 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-02 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "pqO2NMPRRLWTTEnilcGx", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1709339048093, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1712353666003, "question": "Will AMC CEO Adam Aron's 2023 total compensation package be >$24 million?", "slug": "will-amc-ceo-adam-arons-2023-total", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-amc-ceo-adam-arons-2023-total", "pool": {"NO": 5008.333333333333, "YES": 2.263249860304313}, "probability": 0.9995199288259294, "p": 0.4847645429363224, "totalLiquidity": 120, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4925, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712353666003, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712353666003, "lastBetTime": 1712353661778, "lastCommentTime": 1712353590820, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc is a popular theater chain (& occasional meme stock). Over the past year, $AMC stock is down ~90%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This week, the CEO Adam Aron announced that he would take a pay cut   (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Deadline source", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deadline.com/2024/02/amc-entertainment-adam-aron-pay-cut-stock-price-1235841446/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Adam Aron and the AMC Entertainment board have agreed to reduce the CEO\u2019s target compensation by 25% this year... \u201cThere is no anguish in my voice about that. That is what a CEO of a company like yours should do... I mean it when I say I ride with you.\u201d", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I would assume this pay cut only applies to his 2024 earnings (I am not an expert). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "His total compensation for 2022 was $23.7 million. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In December of 2022, he asked the board for a \"pay freeze\" for 2023 (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "source", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-chief-asks-board-for-salary-freeze-next-year-11672241167", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "His total compensation for 2023 should be revealed in the \"spring proxy statements\" (i.e. within the next few months). ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if the media reports that the \"total pay\", \"total compensation\", or closest equivalent wording, for Adam Aron in 2023 is larger than $24,000,000.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don't expect that \"total pay\" (or equivalently \"compensation package\" or etc) will be difficult to define, but if any scenarios are unclear, please ask (I will use similar criteria as my market for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Zazlav", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-david-zazlavs-2023-total-compe", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["finance", "economics-default", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "business", "entertainment", "meme-stocks", "amc"], "textDescription": "AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc is a popular theater chain (& occasional meme stock). Over the past year, $AMC stock is down ~90%.\n\n\nThis week, the CEO Adam Aron announced that he would take a pay cut   (Deadline source):\n\nAdam Aron and the AMC Entertainment board have agreed to reduce the CEO\u2019s target compensation by 25% this year... \u201cThere is no anguish in my voice about that. That is what a CEO of a company like yours should do... I mean it when I say I ride with you.\u201d\n\nI would assume this pay cut only applies to his 2024 earnings (I am not an expert). \n\nHis total compensation for 2022 was $23.7 million. \n\nIn December of 2022, he asked the board for a \"pay freeze\" for 2023 (source).\n\nHis total compensation for 2023 should be revealed in the \"spring proxy statements\" (i.e. within the next few months). \n\nThis market resolves YES if the media reports that the \"total pay\", \"total compensation\", or closest equivalent wording, for Adam Aron in 2023 is larger than $24,000,000.\n\nI don't expect that \"total pay\" (or equivalently \"compensation package\" or etc) will be difficult to define, but if any scenarios are unclear, please ask (I will use similar criteria as my market for Zazlav). "}, {"id": "kKXYYyisJGVjlPokH9kL", "creatorId": "INgj5CH9MRYVE1hzYwghFHrVHkw2", "creatorUsername": "JamesBarry", "creatorName": "James Barry", "createdTime": 1709265649217, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiQ97fab5klQv1kGZTuL3vK6KeZ-OWzamYJlZYapkw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709355540000, "question": "Will Porter Robinson deactivate their twitter account on March 1, 2024?", "slug": "will-the-porter-robinson-deactivate", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesBarry/will-the-porter-robinson-deactivate", "pool": {"NO": 37.409765328706705, "YES": 869.9879007718586}, "probability": 0.03193546238728592, "p": 0.43412660501883105, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 832.4170666571328, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709362868325, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "INgj5CH9MRYVE1hzYwghFHrVHkw2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709362868586, "lastBetTime": 1709352016426, "lastCommentTime": 1709362863138, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "for context, Robinson recently released this video:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNud0z0XVzk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNud0z0XVzk", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "there's a countdown to 5pm GMT on March 1 here:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://porterrobinson.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://porterrobinson.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "To clarify the spirit of the question:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "here is the twitter account in question: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/porterrobinson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/porterrobinson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "early morning on the 2nd would also resolve positive; this will resolve \"Yes\" if, before 7am GMT 3/2/2024 Porter Robinson's twitter account is deactivated.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/JamesBarry%2F99715be1dd28.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["music-f213cbf1eab5", "internet", "music-artists"], "textDescription": "for context, Robinson recently released this video:\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNud0z0XVzk\n\nthere's a countdown to 5pm GMT on March 1 here:\nhttps://porterrobinson.com/\n\nTo clarify the spirit of the question:\nhere is the twitter account in question: https://twitter.com/porterrobinson\nearly morning on the 2nd would also resolve positive; this will resolve \"Yes\" if, before 7am GMT 3/2/2024 Porter Robinson's twitter account is deactivated."}]
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