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@@ -0,0 +1,1251 @@
+1
+00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:26,160
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اللقاءات الفاتت بال chapter
+
+2
+00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:31,300
+3 كنا نحكي عن ال trading in the stock markets و
+
+3
+00:00:31,300 --> 00:00:33,120
+خاصة ال trading في ال primary market و ال
+
+4
+00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:37,100
+secondary markets today we will talk about the
+
+5
+00:00:37,100 --> 00:00:41,400
+bond trading الاتجار بالسندات and the cost of the
+
+6
+00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:46,600
+trading و تكلفة الاتجار طبعا نحكي في البداية عن ال
+
+7
+00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,500
+bond trading ال
+
+8
+00:00:50,500 --> 00:00:54,380
+bond اللي هو السندات most of the bond are traded
+
+9
+00:00:54,380 --> 00:01:01,600
+in the in the OTC markets OTC market OTC it's
+
+10
+00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:08,840
+stand for over the counter market over the counter
+
+11
+00:01:11,430 --> 00:01:14,570
+markets over-the-counter markets over-the-counter
+
+12
+00:01:14,570 --> 00:01:18,030
+markets يعني أسواق غير نظامية نعطي مثال على سوق
+
+13
+00:01:18,030 --> 00:01:23,590
+نظامي اللي هو بال bond trading New York Stock
+
+14
+00:01:23,590 --> 00:01:27,410
+Exchange هو نوع من الأسواق النظامية يعني البورصة
+
+15
+00:01:27,410 --> 00:01:29,710
+العادية تشوفها أو السوق المالي العادي هذا بيسموه
+
+16
+00:01:29,710 --> 00:01:34,690
+سوق نظامي في بعض العمليات بتتم خارج السوق المالي
+
+17
+00:01:34,690 --> 00:01:39,880
+هذا بيسميها over-the-counter يعني مثلا لو كانت
+
+18
+00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:45,700
+التعليمات بتحكي أنه الصفقات في السوق المالي العادي
+
+19
+00:01:45,700 --> 00:01:50,920
+مثلا نشتري مضاعفات لعشرة آلاف سهم، the rounding of
+
+20
+00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,500
+ten thousand stocks طب لو كان احنا بدنا تسعمية و
+
+21
+00:01:54,500 --> 00:01:57,420
+خمسين سهم، من وين نجيبهم؟ منروح على ال over the
+
+22
+00:01:57,420 --> 00:02:04,030
+counter markets Okay؟ إذا السوق العادي أو النظامي
+
+23
+00:02:04,030 --> 00:02:07,690
+مثل New York Stock Exchange هو سوق نظامي، كل
+
+24
+00:02:07,690 --> 00:02:11,990
+العمليات فيه standard، نظامية حسب القوانين
+
+25
+00:02:11,990 --> 00:02:16,610
+والأنظمة over the counter market انعمل عشان في
+
+26
+00:02:16,610 --> 00:02:20,930
+small dealers or small investors they want to
+
+27
+00:02:20,930 --> 00:02:26,130
+trade in the financial markets so to make the life
+
+28
+00:02:26,130 --> 00:02:30,010
+easy for them عشان يسهلوا حياتهم so they issued the
+
+29
+00:02:30,010 --> 00:02:34,430
+OTC markets over the counter markets لأنه لازم
+
+30
+00:02:34,430 --> 00:02:38,270
+يشتري الواحد مثلا عشرة آلاف سهم فاللي معاه بس قيمة
+
+31
+00:02:38,270 --> 00:02:41,170
+ال mobile اللي بيحكي ي rate it okay
+
+32
+00:02:44,290 --> 00:02:47,970
+بنت ثاني مرة أي واحدة بتفتح ال mobile نهائي ما
+
+33
+00:02:47,970 --> 00:02:52,230
+بديش أشوفها من .. So the over the counter markets
+
+34
+00:02:52,230 --> 00:02:57,170
+هو زي ما حكينا هو سوق غير نظامي okay السوق الغير
+
+35
+00:02:57,170 --> 00:03:01,990
+نظامي العمليات اللي لا تنطبق على السوق النظامي
+
+36
+00:03:01,990 --> 00:03:05,290
+بيروحوا ينفذوها بالسوق الغير نظامي أعطينا بفعل
+
+37
+00:03:05,290 --> 00:03:09,810
+بسيط على how we trade this ال bond market سوق
+
+38
+00:03:09,810 --> 00:03:14,050
+السندات سوق السندات هذا السوق السودا؟ لأ مش السوق
+
+39
+00:03:14,050 --> 00:03:19,850
+السودا هي it is organized هذه بتكون منظمة لكن بعض
+
+40
+00:03:19,850 --> 00:03:22,190
+التعليمات اللي ما بتنطبق على السوق العادي بتروح
+
+41
+00:03:22,190 --> 00:03:26,330
+على ال OTC market و هذه one of the largest markets
+
+42
+00:03:26,330 --> 00:03:30,750
+بفعلها ال Nasdaq ال OTC أكبر مثال لها ال إيش؟ ال
+
+43
+00:03:30,750 --> 00:03:35,530
+Nasdaq، عارفين ال Nasdaq one of the largest market
+
+44
+00:03:35,530 --> 00:03:42,010
+in .. in .. in the world، أكبر سوق في العالم، أظن
+
+45
+00:03:42,010 --> 00:03:44,730
+بيجي بعد New York Stock Exchange، بعد سوق New York
+
+46
+00:03:46,610 --> 00:03:51,830
+فعشان هيك ال bond market يتم الاتجار فيها في ال
+
+47
+00:03:51,830 --> 00:03:56,130
+OTC markets حديثا أو جديد السنوات الأخيرة صار ال
+
+48
+00:03:56,130 --> 00:03:59,090
+bond market صار ال bond market is traded through
+
+49
+00:03:59,090 --> 00:04:02,230
+the New York Stock Exchange طبعا احنا في الأسواق
+
+50
+00:04:02,230 --> 00:04:04,970
+السوق الفلسطيني مافيش عنده bond market مافيش عنده
+
+51
+00:04:04,970 --> 00:04:12,050
+أسواق سندات لكن في في مصر مثلا في دبي في هذه الدول
+
+52
+00:04:12,050 --> 00:04:14,730
+في عندهم أسواق سندات okay
+
+53
+00:04:17,710 --> 00:04:20,830
+comparing with the stock market, the bond market
+
+54
+00:04:20,830 --> 00:04:26,510
+is very thin، thin يعني محدود، يعني ال stock
+
+55
+00:04:26,510 --> 00:04:30,750
+market is heavily traded, however the bond market
+
+56
+00:04:30,750 --> 00:04:36,600
+is a thin traded، يعني الاتجار فيه ضعيف ليش ال bond
+
+57
+00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:40,640
+market السندات؟ ليش تصبح ضعيف؟ because the trading
+
+58
+00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,760
+on the bond market is limited to the corporations
+
+59
+00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:47,840
+and governments لأنه الاتجار في سوق السندات فقط
+
+60
+00:04:47,840 --> 00:04:52,780
+محدود للشركات وللحكومة فمعناه كلام ال individuals
+
+61
+00:04:52,780 --> 00:04:57,200
+they cannot access this market مقدروش انه يعملوا
+
+62
+00:04:57,200 --> 00:04:58,440
+trade في هذا السوق
+
+63
+00:05:01,030 --> 00:05:04,370
+زي ما حكينا أجدد ال New York Stock Exchange طبعا
+
+64
+00:05:04,370 --> 00:05:12,590
+هو هو is a secondary market is expanding its bond
+
+65
+00:05:12,590 --> 00:05:18,210
+trading system اللي صاروا يتوسعوا في عملية بيع و
+
+66
+00:05:18,210 --> 00:05:21,890
+شراء السندات لكن بالأساس كان هو ال Nasdaq is
+
+67
+00:05:21,890 --> 00:05:25,140
+dominated this market بعد New York Stock Exchange
+
+68
+00:05:25,140 --> 00:05:30,640
+صار برضه سوق شيكاجو الأسواق الأخرى ال euro market
+
+69
+00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:33,200
+euro next كلهم صاروا يشتغلوا في ال bond markets
+
+70
+00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:38,460
+New York Stock Exchange now after the expansion
+
+71
+00:05:39,490 --> 00:05:43,010
+after the expansion, New York Stock Exchange bonds
+
+72
+00:05:43,010 --> 00:05:46,830
+is the largest centralized bond market of any US
+
+73
+00:05:46,830 --> 00:05:51,750
+exchange بعد التوسع اللي عملوها في التسويق للسندات
+
+74
+00:05:51,750 --> 00:05:55,290
+أصبح New York Stock Exchange هو أكبر سوق سندات في
+
+75
+00:05:55,290 --> 00:06:01,870
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية هذا
+
+76
+00:06:01,870 --> 00:06:06,570
+التطور في ال bond trading market
+
+77
+00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:14,000
+نرجع لبعض الأسواق العالمية و بس يعني تاخدوا نظرة
+
+78
+00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:18,540
+عنها في عندنا London Stock Exchange and London
+
+79
+00:06:18,540 --> 00:06:21,620
+Stock Exchange is an electronic markets سوق إلكتروني
+
+80
+00:06:21,620 --> 00:06:29,120
+كله بال .. بال stocks و بال bonds السوق سندات و
+
+81
+00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:34,160
+حكينا عن ال Euronext ال Euronext markets هذا ال
+
+82
+00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:40,050
+Euronext بيدمج مجموعة أسواق مع بعض يعني هو سوق من
+
+83
+00:06:40,050 --> 00:06:44,330
+مجموعة أسواق إيش الأسواق اللي بضمها باريس و
+
+84
+00:06:44,330 --> 00:06:48,030
+Amsterdam and Brussels exchange كلهم يعني لو إحنا
+
+85
+00:06:48,030 --> 00:06:52,610
+بنعمل اتجار في أي سوق من هدول الأسواق okay ال euro
+
+86
+00:06:52,610 --> 00:06:56,530
+next هو اللي بنفذ العمليات اللي بتتم في باريس في
+
+87
+00:06:56,530 --> 00:07:01,530
+Amsterdam and Brussels و بعدين اللي صار اليوم كمان
+
+88
+00:07:01,530 --> 00:07:04,910
+و المرة الأخيرة سألنا سؤال why the prices moving
+
+89
+00:07:04,910 --> 00:07:11,130
+together لأنه صار في merging between the some euros
+
+90
+00:07:11,130 --> 00:07:14,990
+markets and united states markets يعني صار اندماج
+
+91
+00:07:14,990 --> 00:07:18,970
+أو دمج في بعض الأسواق الأوروبية و بعض الأسواق
+
+92
+00:07:18,970 --> 00:07:23,330
+الأمريكية يعني زي ما صار في دمج بين euronext و بين
+
+93
+00:07:23,330 --> 00:07:27,620
+ال New York Stock Exchange فهذا ال damage صار إنه
+
+94
+00:07:27,620 --> 00:07:32,680
+احنا لو بنبحث أي سهم أو أي سند من .. من أوروبا
+
+95
+00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,280
+ممكن نشتريه من البلاد المتحدة الأمريكية okay صار
+
+96
+00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:39,540
+ال .. ال companies listed in the United States the
+
+97
+00:07:39,540 --> 00:07:41,640
+same companies listed in the .. in European
+
+98
+00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:46,740
+countries markets فهذا صار في تداخل في الأسواق
+
+99
+00:07:46,740 --> 00:07:51,940
+الناجمة فينا كمان من الأسواق القوية Tokyo Stock
+
+100
+00:07:51,940 --> 00:07:54,960
+Exchange Tokyo Stock Exchange من أقوى الأسواق في
+
+101
+00:07:54,960 --> 00:08:00,300
+منطقة آسيا طوكيو بتلاحظوا إن الأسواق المالية هذه
+
+102
+00:08:00,300 --> 00:08:05,540
+إيش السبب إنه بيعملوا merging و .. و .. و .. و
+
+103
+00:08:05,540 --> 00:08:09,140
+بيكون في 24 hours trading لو احنا مشينا مع عقارب
+
+104
+00:08:09,140 --> 00:08:13,210
+الساعة لو مشينا مع عقارب الساعة نشوف هالأسواق
+
+105
+00:08:13,210 --> 00:08:17,970
+المالية هي كده تمشي مع عقارب الساعة اليوم الساعة
+
+106
+00:08:17,970 --> 00:08:20,570
+الصباح الساعة ثمانية الصبح بتشرق الشمس على آسيا
+
+107
+00:08:20,570 --> 00:08:24,990
+صح؟ أول ما بتبدأ الشمس تشرق من منطقة آسيا الصين
+
+108
+00:08:24,990 --> 00:08:29,450
+واليابان فبتكون طوكيو بتفتح يعني من الساعة الثانية عشر
+
+109
+00:08:29,450 --> 00:08:36,210
+في الليل احنا بتوقيت فلسطين لتمانية صباح بتوقيتنا
+
+110
+00:08:36,210 --> 00:08:40,300
+بتكون منطقة آسيا بتفتح سوقها okay واحدة واحدة
+
+111
+00:08:40,300 --> 00:08:44,480
+يعني كل ساعة بتفتحنا سوق تبدأ الدنيا ماشية من .. من
+
+112
+00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:48,380
+قاسي يعني لو احنا بنمشي مع الشمس و بتمشي الشمس
+
+113
+00:08:48,380 --> 00:08:53,780
+بهذه الطريقة هاي okay فبتقابلنا ال Japan okay
+
+114
+00:08:53,780 --> 00:08:57,660
+بعدين بتمشي بتفتح China and and so on بعدين تدخل
+
+115
+00:08:57,660 --> 00:09:01,380
+على ال middle east في ال middle east تبدأ الساعة
+
+116
+00:09:01,380 --> 00:09:06,040
+ثمانية بتفتح الدنيا صح اللي هو eight طبعا هاي ال
+
+117
+00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,900
+middle east فأهم سوق في ال middle east هو سوق دبي
+
+118
+00:09:08,900 --> 00:09:13,860
+أو سوق .. سوق دبي، سوق قطر، البحرين، الإسكندرية و
+
+119
+00:09:13,860 --> 00:09:20,060
+القاهرة وعمان، هدول أسواق بتفتح يعني ورا بعض وإذا
+
+120
+00:09:20,060 --> 00:09:24,500
+احنا we moving و تبضلنا ماشيين الساعة عشرة صباح
+
+121
+00:09:24,500 --> 00:09:28,140
+بتوقيتنا برضه بتفتح تبقى زي فتح أوروبا تمشي الشمس
+
+122
+00:09:28,140 --> 00:09:33,140
+عشان تشرق على أوروبا بتبقى بلندن فرانكفورت باريس
+
+123
+00:09:33,140 --> 00:09:38,380
+كله بيمشي معاهم بعدين again الساعة طبعا لو حكينا
+
+124
+00:09:38,380 --> 00:09:42,140
+احنا من الساعة الثانية عشر ثمانية من الساعة ثمانية لساعة
+
+125
+00:09:42,140 --> 00:09:49,330
+أربعة بيبدأ ال middle east plus Europe و أوروبا شرق
+
+126
+00:09:49,330 --> 00:09:53,730
+الأوسط وأوروبا ماشيين على خطوط متساوية بعدين من
+
+127
+00:09:53,730 --> 00:09:59,950
+الساعة 4 مين بده مفتاح؟ iso united states من الساعة
+
+128
+00:09:59,950 --> 00:10:02,990
+الأربعة بيبدو لعند الساعة اثنا عشر أسواق الولايات
+
+129
+00:10:02,990 --> 00:10:06,490
+المتاحة الأمريكية كندا والمكسيك ودول أمريكا
+
+130
+00:10:06,490 --> 00:10:10,730
+الشمالية وأمريكا الجنوبية okay فبصير.. بصير هيك
+
+131
+00:10:10,730 --> 00:10:14,530
+الأسواق المالية كلها بتكون كلها فاتحة twenty four
+
+132
+00:10:14,530 --> 00:10:18,050
+hours فعشان هيك بحتاجوا يعملوا merging بين الأسواق
+
+133
+00:10:18,050 --> 00:10:20,870
+المالية عشان ما يصيرش في fluctuation بالأسعار يعني
+
+134
+00:10:20,870 --> 00:10:27,520
+هلأ مثلاً ب.. بستطيع أشتري مثلاً ال IBM من دبي حتى
+
+135
+00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:29,660
+even the stock market.. the New York stock
+
+136
+00:10:29,660 --> 00:10:33,600
+exchange is closed then if the New York stock
+
+137
+00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:38,740
+exchange is closed I can buy and trade in Japan so
+
+138
+00:10:38,740 --> 00:10:42,120
+because most of companies listed in different
+
+139
+00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:47,020
+markets يعني مثلًا إن كانت شركة بالتل الشركة
+
+140
+00:10:47,020 --> 00:10:49,580
+الاتصالات الفلسطينية كانت في عامة dual listing مع
+
+141
+00:10:49,580 --> 00:10:54,680
+دبي فكان ممكن يعمل trade في فلسطين و trade في دبي
+
+142
+00:10:55,510 --> 00:10:58,490
+فزي ما تشايفين كيف ال financial market is moving
+
+143
+00:10:58,490 --> 00:11:04,070
+according to the sunrise يعني بتمشي حسب شروق الشمس
+
+144
+00:11:04,070 --> 00:11:07,490
+عشان هيك هدول ال dealers بيقولوا ال financial
+
+145
+00:11:07,490 --> 00:11:11,570
+market is open 24 hours شغالة 24 ساعة
+
+146
+00:11:14,380 --> 00:11:17,440
+Okay فعشان هيك احنا بنحكي عن الأسواق المالية دول
+
+147
+00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,000
+ضروري تعرفوا حتى للناس اللي بيشتغلوا بال.. بال
+
+148
+00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,900
+investments they have to know what is going in
+
+149
+00:11:22,900 --> 00:11:25,380
+London Stock Exchange, what is going in Euronext,
+
+150
+00:11:25,540 --> 00:11:29,180
+in Tokyo, in.. in Nasdaq, in.. in Dubai, in
+
+151
+00:11:29,180 --> 00:11:34,400
+Cairo, in all of these countries, even Nigeria you
+
+152
+00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:38,900
+have to know حتى في نيجيريا في عندهم سوق خوّي في
+
+153
+00:11:38,900 --> 00:11:42,120
+نيجيريا ونيجيريا تنسوش أنه اللي صار في
+
+154
+00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:46,380
+developments كبير صاروا ي.. اللي هو ينتجوا ثالث
+
+155
+00:11:46,380 --> 00:11:51,440
+أكبر سينما في العالم اليوم أول واحدة هوليود و
+
+156
+00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:56,760
+ثانية اللي هي اللي بتاعة إنديا هوليود وبعدين
+
+157
+00:11:56,760 --> 00:12:01,900
+نيليود، نوليود فصاروا في attract for big
+
+158
+00:12:01,900 --> 00:12:05,080
+investments in نيجيريا يعني صارت نيجيريا تعمل
+
+159
+00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,900
+attracting لل big investments وعندهم أسواق مالية
+
+160
+00:12:07,900 --> 00:12:11,160
+برضه بتطورها في South Africa، في جنوب أفريقيا وفي
+
+161
+00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:16,240
+نيجيريا فعشان هيك كويس أن ال.. to take your eye
+
+162
+00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:21,260
+in all of these markets
+
+163
+00:12:21,260 --> 00:12:25,460
+ال New York.. New York Stock Exchange measures
+
+164
+00:12:25,460 --> 00:12:30,670
+and acquisitions سوق New York صار يعمل كثير
+
+165
+00:12:30,670 --> 00:12:35,150
+managing، سيطرة لبعض الأسواق المالية و
+
+166
+00:12:35,150 --> 00:12:39,370
+acquisitions وكمان يمتلك هذه الأسواق، يعني مش بس
+
+167
+00:12:39,370 --> 00:12:44,790
+damage، كمان امتلاك لبعض الأسواق طبعًا عملية ال
+
+168
+00:12:44,790 --> 00:12:48,130
+damage بتتم من خلال ال ACN أنا موضحتش معناه ال ACN
+
+169
+00:12:48,130 --> 00:12:51,450
+اللي هو Electronic Communication Networks يعني
+
+170
+00:12:51,450 --> 00:12:54,550
+عملية.. عملية الرابط الإلكتروني you don't need to
+
+171
+00:12:54,550 --> 00:12:57,010
+move the market from place to another you just
+
+172
+00:12:57,010 --> 00:13:00,850
+connect the market in a particular computer
+
+173
+00:13:00,850 --> 00:13:05,660
+network فصاروا يستخدموا ال ECM، كمان استخدموا اللي
+
+174
+00:13:05,660 --> 00:13:08,060
+.. اللي عملوا damage مع ال American Stock
+
+175
+00:13:08,060 --> 00:13:11,080
+Exchange، most of the American Stock Exchange is
+
+176
+00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:12,960
+merging with the.. with the New York Stock
+
+177
+00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,200
+Exchange، كمان عملوا damage مع ال Euronext،
+
+178
+00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,940
+Euronext اللي حكينا فيها اللي هو أسواق أوروبا،
+
+179
+00:13:18,940 --> 00:13:20,240
+اللي بتاخدون باريس وأمستردام
+
+180
+00:13:23,830 --> 00:13:26,890
+Okay أستاذ، عملية الدمج هنا نفسها ليست ضابط
+
+181
+00:13:26,890 --> 00:13:32,050
+إلكتروني؟ لأ، الضابط الإلكتروني هي نوع أو خلّيني
+
+182
+00:13:32,050 --> 00:13:36,950
+أحكي أنه وسيلة وسيلة اه okay وحتى في سوق ال ACN
+
+183
+00:13:36,950 --> 00:13:40,530
+كمان هو مدمج في داخل ال New York Stock Exchange
+
+184
+00:13:40,530 --> 00:13:44,010
+إيش يعني ال ACN؟ ال ACN هي Electronic
+
+185
+00:13:44,010 --> 00:13:48,690
+Communication Networks among the dealers بين ال
+
+186
+00:13:48,690 --> 00:13:52,290
+dealers نفسهم ف New York Stock Exchange عشان أنتو
+
+187
+00:13:52,290 --> 00:13:55,110
+بعرفش I don't know you read when you go home or
+
+188
+00:13:55,110 --> 00:13:59,450
+not the New York Stock Exchange is specialist
+
+189
+00:13:59,450 --> 00:14:06,710
+markets however the the ACM is dealer markets so
+
+190
+00:14:06,710 --> 00:14:08,990
+the New York New York Stock Exchange is merging
+
+191
+00:14:08,990 --> 00:14:12,460
+with two different types of marketsthe dealer
+
+192
+00:14:12,460 --> 00:14:15,000
+market and the specialist market يعني صار في عملية
+
+193
+00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,840
+دمج بين نوعين مختلفين ال New York Stock Exchange
+
+194
+00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,400
+هو سوق.. سوق specialist ورسمنالكوا الرسمة كيف ال
+
+195
+00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:26,820
+.. إذا فاكرين لما رسمنا الرسمة هذه okay وحكينا
+
+196
+00:14:26,820 --> 00:14:30,440
+أنه في seats هنا وفي dealers dealers okay و
+
+197
+00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,140
+بيتعاملوا مع الناس ال specialists اللي هون فصار
+
+198
+00:14:33,140 --> 00:14:37,340
+عملية دمج هذه بيسموهم ECMs لأن الربط بيناتهم هي
+
+199
+00:14:37,340 --> 00:14:39,680
+نظام ال ECMs ال ECMs اللي هو Electronic
+
+200
+00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:43,600
+Communication Networks شبكات إلكترونية وبتربط ال
+
+201
+00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,600
+dealers نفسهم فهذا بيسموه dealer markets وحكينا
+
+202
+00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:48,840
+هذا New York Stock Exchange specialist markets
+
+203
+00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:55,220
+صار عليه الدمج بين السوقين صار فيه تكامل بين دور
+
+204
+00:14:55,220 --> 00:14:58,340
+ال dealers markets وبين دور ال specialist markets
+
+205
+00:14:59,650 --> 00:15:03,270
+كمان صار كمان مع ال euro next markets ال euro next
+
+206
+00:15:03,270 --> 00:15:08,210
+هو أسواق أوروبا وبالتالي صار أنه ممكن احنا يعني
+
+207
+00:15:08,210 --> 00:15:11,070
+مثلًا شركة بدأ تعمل underwriting شركة بدأ تعمل
+
+208
+00:15:11,070 --> 00:15:14,710
+expansion فممكن تعمل من خلال ال euro next market ومن
+
+209
+00:15:14,710 --> 00:15:20,910
+خلال ال New York Stock Exchange فتشوفوا كم قوة
+
+210
+00:15:20,910 --> 00:15:24,710
+هذه الأسواق بتصير قبل الاندماج كم هي قوية وبعد
+
+211
+00:15:24,710 --> 00:15:31,170
+الاندماج كم هي هتكون قوية فأسواق مليارات دولارات
+
+212
+00:15:31,170 --> 00:15:36,870
+مليارات transactions تم الشغل فيهم ال nasdaq زي ما
+
+213
+00:15:36,870 --> 00:15:39,750
+حكينا ال nasdaq برضه صار في mergers and
+
+214
+00:15:39,750 --> 00:15:44,510
+acquisition طبعًا الناس ده اكتسوش هو سوق Dealers
+
+215
+00:15:44,510 --> 00:15:49,370
+برضه هو بيشبه ال ACN's لكن هو OTC over the counter
+
+216
+00:15:49,370 --> 00:15:54,770
+يعني هو OTC كمان سوق غير نظام صحيح في عملية damage
+
+217
+00:15:54,770 --> 00:15:59,430
+بين ال Instant Inet ACN في نوع من أنواع الأسواق
+
+218
+00:15:59,430 --> 00:16:04,370
+المالية اسمها Instant Instant Net و Boston Stock
+
+219
+00:16:04,370 --> 00:16:09,580
+Exchange Boston برضه من الأسواق المالية القوية كان
+
+220
+00:16:09,580 --> 00:16:13,400
+أصحى فيه دمج في Chicago، Chicago هي من أكبر
+
+221
+00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:17,240
+الأسواق في ال.. ال futures، كانت.. ألا أظن يمكن
+
+222
+00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,460
+ال site بتاعة ال New York Stock Exchange، Chicago
+
+223
+00:16:19,460 --> 00:16:22,640
+كانت من أولى الأسواق المالية اللي هي كانت تتعامل
+
+224
+00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,140
+مع ال futures وال options وال.. وال forwards
+
+225
+00:16:25,140 --> 00:16:30,060
+اللي هو ال derivatives اللي هي بورصة Chicago برضه
+
+226
+00:16:30,060 --> 00:16:33,580
+صار في.. برضه صار في اندماج في Chicago Board of
+
+227
+00:16:33,580 --> 00:16:36,580
+Trade و New York Stock Exchange شوفوا كيف ال.. ال
+
+228
+00:16:36,580 --> 00:16:39,180
+..ال.. احنا يعني ممكن أنا I'm stressed point هنا
+
+229
+00:16:39,180 --> 00:16:43,200
+شوفوا أوروبا كان بعيدة عن United States يعني ممكن
+
+230
+00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:46,660
+نحتاج احنا eighteen hours flight ثمان عشر ساعة
+
+231
+00:16:46,660 --> 00:16:50,260
+نسافر عشان to go from the European countries to
+
+232
+00:16:50,260 --> 00:16:53,900
+the United States however we don't need to flight
+
+233
+00:16:53,900 --> 00:16:57,430
+in some places between the Arab countries So why
+
+234
+00:16:57,430 --> 00:17:00,530
+there is no merging and acquisitions between the
+
+235
+00:17:00,530 --> 00:17:04,330
+Arab markets or Arab stock markets؟ يعني خلاني أنا
+
+236
+00:17:04,330 --> 00:17:07,430
+برضه نطرح هذا السؤال ليش ما بيصيرش دمج رغم أنه في
+
+237
+00:17:07,430 --> 00:17:13,590
+دول بعيدة عن بعض، دول بشكل كبير ولكن بيصير فيه
+
+238
+00:17:13,590 --> 00:17:17,390
+اندماج بينهم ودول متجاورة وما بيصيرش فيه damage
+
+239
+00:17:17,390 --> 00:17:26,040
+بينهم ال trading cost ال trading cost كيف نحسب لما
+
+240
+00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:31,300
+احنا بدنا نتاجر في السوق المالي عادة المرة الأولى
+
+241
+00:17:31,300 --> 00:17:33,360
+اللي حكيت when you are trading in the financial
+
+242
+00:17:33,360 --> 00:17:36,480
+market you have to bear the cost لازم تتحمل ال
+
+243
+00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:40,540
+cost one of these cost is the cost of trading or
+
+244
+00:17:40,540 --> 00:17:44,400
+the explicit cost of trading for instance
+
+245
+00:17:52,030 --> 00:17:55,590
+لما بيجي نحكي سعر ال bid and ask شرحنا لكوا يعني
+
+246
+00:17:55,590 --> 00:18:00,070
+المرة الثالثة okay and we talk if this price 17 and
+
+247
+00:18:00,070 --> 00:18:05,230
+this price is 17.40 وحكينا from the from the
+
+248
+00:18:05,230 --> 00:18:09,170
+dealer perspective the spread is profit but from
+
+249
+00:18:09,170 --> 00:18:12,030
+the investor perspective the spread is the cost
+
+250
+00:18:12,940 --> 00:18:16,240
+يعني حكينا احنا مرة سابقة أنه هذه أسعار البيع و
+
+251
+00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,960
+كل ما ال dealer بوسع سعر البيع و الشراء
+
+252
+00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,700
+الفرق بينهم بيزيد الربح تبعه لكن في ال .. في نفس
+
+253
+00:18:23,700 --> 00:18:26,980
+ال .. ال .. ال .. كل ما بيزيد ال spread كل ما ال
+
+254
+00:18:26,980 --> 00:18:32,200
+cost يعني التكاليف على ال investor بتزيد فها ال
+
+255
+00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:37,730
+cost بتحمل ال investors بتحمل نوعين من ال costاللي
+
+256
+00:18:37,730 --> 00:18:40,250
+هي ال cost of trading تكلفة الإتجار نفسها ال
+
+257
+00:18:40,250 --> 00:18:44,230
+commission plus اللي هو transaction cost كلفة
+
+258
+00:18:44,230 --> 00:18:47,530
+العملية يعني الفرق بين ال bid و ال ask split يعني
+
+259
+00:18:47,530 --> 00:18:54,250
+في عنوان من ال .. من ال cost النوع
+
+260
+00:18:54,250 --> 00:18:59,030
+الأول خليناها explicit cost of trading okay اللي
+
+261
+00:18:59,030 --> 00:19:02,390
+هو cost of trading explicit بتكون واضحة و يكون
+
+262
+00:19:02,390 --> 00:19:05,890
+معروفة و ال full services versus discount
+
+263
+00:19:05,890 --> 00:19:10,130
+brokerages اللي هو الخدمات اللي بيقدمها ال .. ال ..
+
+264
+00:19:10,130 --> 00:19:13,530
+الوسطاء الخدمات اللي بيقدمها الوسطاء بيحتاجوا
+
+265
+00:19:13,530 --> 00:19:17,950
+عمولات أو أول أشياء تجارية ثانية كل تلك العمليات
+
+266
+00:19:17,950 --> 00:19:21,790
+اللي بيجيب عليها اه هلأ explicit cost of trading
+
+267
+00:19:21,790 --> 00:19:26,310
+يعني هاي كل هذه بتكون تكاليف مثلا نحكي لما أنت بدك
+
+268
+00:19:26,310 --> 00:19:30,750
+تدخل السوق ال buy و ال sell الوسيط بياخد عليها
+
+269
+00:19:30,750 --> 00:19:37,070
+commission معين Okay هذا ال commission من قيمة
+
+270
+00:19:37,070 --> 00:19:40,090
+الصفقة زي ما عندنا في سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية في
+
+271
+00:19:40,090 --> 00:19:43,870
+سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية بياخدوا commission هذا ال
+
+272
+00:19:43,870 --> 00:19:47,230
+commission مش بس لل .. لل .. لل broker كمان بتروح
+
+273
+00:19:47,230 --> 00:19:52,190
+جزء منها للسوق المالي okay بالإضافة لل spread اللي
+
+274
+00:19:52,190 --> 00:19:57,390
+حكينا فيه اللي هو الفرق بين ال bid و ال ask و هنشوف
+
+275
+00:19:57,390 --> 00:20:01,510
+كمان شوية أنواع أخرى من ال cost ممكن يتحملها ال
+
+276
+00:20:01,510 --> 00:20:06,050
+trader طبعا it is implicit cost of trading هي
+
+277
+00:20:06,050 --> 00:20:10,290
+بتكون غير ظاهرة لما أنا بستخدم ال spreads بتكون
+
+278
+00:20:10,290 --> 00:20:12,570
+implicit أيش معناه implicit بتكون هي خفية
+
+279
+00:20:12,570 --> 00:20:18,450
+ما بنشوفهاش يعني هلأ مثلا هنشوف لو احنا بنشتري
+
+280
+00:20:18,450 --> 00:20:23,330
+نشتري
+
+281
+00:20:23,330 --> 00:20:25,050
+مثلا سهم
+
+282
+00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:37,920
+بعدكم نفترض نفترض كان 2.5 2.55 أن ال spread كام ال
+
+283
+00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:42,620
+spread هو 0.05 مظبوط ال spread في الحالة هذه cost
+
+284
+00:20:42,620 --> 00:20:47,960
+بالنسبة لل investors ليش cost؟ لو هو اشترى اشترى
+
+285
+00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:52,720
+السهم عشرتيه على 2.55 صح؟ لما بديوا يبيعوا بيبيعوا
+
+286
+00:20:52,720 --> 00:21:00,330
+على 2.5 فبيخسروا 0.05 الآن ال traders أو ال dealers
+
+287
+00:21:00,330 --> 00:21:03,570
+ممكن يروح يوسع ال ..
+
+288
+00:21:06,820 --> 00:21:10,520
+يوسعوا ال spread فهذا implicit بيسموه يعني مش واضح
+
+289
+00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:15,320
+بيكون لل investors يمكن أنتو اللي عرفته بس ال
+
+290
+00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,620
+other investors they don't know about these things
+
+291
+00:21:17,620 --> 00:21:21,840
+ممكن مستخدميه ما بيكون خفية و بعدين هاي بيدأس ال
+
+292
+00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,760
+spread واضح للكل بس في بعض الشغلات ممكن يستخدمها
+
+293
+00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:28,960
+ال dealer ما بيكونش واضحة فديش صار الفرق بين اتهم
+
+294
+00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,720
+point 10 بنلاحظ كل ما احنا وسعنا ال spread كل ما
+
+295
+00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,560
+كان ال cost ارتفعت يعني هل ال cost مخفضة هل ال cost
+
+296
+00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:40,920
+مرتفعة فعشان هيك بيسموها implicit cost of trading
+
+297
+00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,000
+و زي ما احنا شرحنا المرة الفاترة لما حكينا على ال
+
+298
+00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:50,640
+.. على ال inventory حسب مستوى ال inventory بيروح
+
+299
+00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,140
+بي .. بيزود ال spread و بيخفض ال spread okay يعني
+
+300
+00:21:54,140 --> 00:21:58,040
+بيزود التكليف و بيخفض التكليف حتى يحافظ على limit
+
+301
+00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:05,500
+معين من ال .. من ال .. هذا هنيجي له بالتفصيل النوع
+
+302
+00:22:05,500 --> 00:22:10,880
+اللي هنركز عليه كثير اللي هو ال margin cost اللي
+
+303
+00:22:10,880 --> 0:22:15,020
+هو buying by margin اه
+
+304
+00:22:15,020 --> 00:22:27,740
+ده أهم شيء فلو
+
+305
+00:22:27,740 --> 00:22:33,350
+احنا رجعنا هدول ال cost هدول إذا احنا ال .. ال
+
+306
+00:22:33,350 --> 00:22:38,690
+training costs هدول الكل لازم يتحملهم كل ال .. ال
+
+307
+00:22:38,690 --> 00:22:43,810
+investors بس في حالة ال margin سواء هاي ال
+
+308
+00:22:43,810 --> 00:22:49,750
+brokerage commission يعني عمولة ال .. الوساطة هي
+
+309
+00:22:49,750 --> 00:22:55,470
+نوع و اللي هو ال spread الفرق بين البيع والشراء في
+
+310
+00:22:55,470 --> 00:23:02,010
+شيء؟ اه فال brokerage commission عمولة الوساطة لازم
+
+311
+00:23:02,010 --> 00:23:06,030
+احنا لازم ال ال brokerage services حسب نوع الوساطة
+
+312
+00:23:06,030 --> 00:23:08,490
+فيه بياخد commission و ال spread اللي هو طبعا
+
+313
+00:23:08,490 --> 00:23:09,350
+حكينا فيه ال implicit
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/03vYssE7X1c_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/03vYssE7X1c_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4b377b42173f34bb348b8fb77c037d1f29a87fb1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/03vYssE7X1c_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1252 @@
+1
+00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:26,160
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اللقاءات الفاتت بال chapter
+
+2
+00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:31,300
+3 كنا نحكي عن ال trading in the stock markets و
+
+3
+00:00:31,300 --> 00:00:33,120
+خاصام ال trading في ال primary market و ال
+
+4
+00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:37,100
+secondary markets today we will talk about the
+
+5
+00:00:37,100 --> 00:00:41,400
+bond trading الاتجار بالسندات and the cost of the
+
+6
+00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:46,600
+trading و تكلفة الاتجارطبعا نحكي في البداية عن ال
+
+7
+00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,500
+bond trading ال
+
+8
+00:00:50,500 --> 00:00:54,380
+bond اللي هو السندات most of the bond are trading
+
+9
+00:00:54,380 --> 00:01:01,600
+in the in the OTC markets OTC market OTC it's
+
+10
+00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:08,840
+stand for over the counter market over the counter
+
+11
+00:01:11,430 --> 00:01:14,570
+markets over-the-counter markets over-the-counter
+
+12
+00:01:14,570 --> 00:01:18,030
+markets يعني أسواق غير نظامية نعطي مثال على سوق
+
+13
+00:01:18,030 --> 00:01:23,590
+نظامي اللي هو بال bond trading New York Stock
+
+14
+00:01:23,590 --> 00:01:27,410
+Exchange هو نوع من الألوان النظامية يعني البورصة
+
+15
+00:01:27,410 --> 00:01:29,710
+العادية تشوفها أو السوق المالي العادي هذا بيسموه
+
+16
+00:01:29,710 --> 00:01:34,690
+سوق نظامي في بعض العمليات بتتم خارج السوق المالي
+
+17
+00:01:34,690 --> 00:01:39,880
+هذا بيسميها over-the-counter يعني مثلالو كانت
+
+18
+00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:45,700
+التعليمات بتحكي أنه الصفقات في السوق المالي العادي
+
+19
+00:01:45,700 --> 00:01:50,920
+مثلا نشتري مضاعفات لعشر تلاف سهم، the rounding of
+
+20
+00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,500
+ten thousand stocks طب لو كان احنا بدنا تسعمية و
+
+21
+00:01:54,500 --> 00:01:57,420
+خمسين سهم، من وين نجيبهم؟ منروح على ال over the
+
+22
+00:01:57,420 --> 00:02:04,030
+counter marketsOkay؟ إذا السوق العادي أو النظامي
+
+23
+00:02:04,030 --> 00:02:07,690
+مثل New York Stock Exchange هو سوق نظامي، كل
+
+24
+00:02:07,690 --> 00:02:11,990
+العمليات فيه standard، نظامية حسب القوانين
+
+25
+00:02:11,990 --> 00:02:16,610
+والأنظمةover the counter market انعمل عشان في
+
+26
+00:02:16,610 --> 00:02:20,930
+small dealers or small investors they want to
+
+27
+00:02:20,930 --> 00:02:26,130
+trade in the financial markets so to make the life
+
+28
+00:02:26,130 --> 00:02:30,010
+easy for them عشان يسهلوا حياتهم so they issue the
+
+29
+00:02:30,010 --> 00:02:34,430
+O to C markets over the counter markets لأنه لازم
+
+30
+00:02:34,430 --> 00:02:38,270
+يشتري الواحد مثلا عشر تلاف سهم فاللي معاه بس قيمة
+
+31
+00:02:38,270 --> 00:02:41,170
+ال mobile اللي بيحكي ي rate it okay
+
+32
+00:02:44,290 --> 00:02:47,970
+بنت ثاني مرة أي واحدة بتفتح ال mobile نهائي ما
+
+33
+00:02:47,970 --> 00:02:52,230
+بديش أشوفها من .. So the over the counter markets
+
+34
+00:02:52,230 --> 00:02:57,170
+هو زي ما حكينا هو سوق غير نظامي okay السوق الغير
+
+35
+00:02:57,170 --> 00:03:01,990
+نظاميالعمليات اللي لا تنطبق على السوق النظامي
+
+36
+00:03:01,990 --> 00:03:05,290
+بيروحوا ينافسوها بالسوق الغير نظامي اعطينا بفعل
+
+37
+00:03:05,290 --> 00:03:09,810
+بسيط على how we trade this ال bond market سوق
+
+38
+00:03:09,810 --> 00:03:14,050
+السندات سوق السندات هذا السوق السودا؟ لأ مش السوق
+
+39
+00:03:14,050 --> 00:03:19,850
+السودا هي it is organized هذه بتكون مرظمة لكن بعض
+
+40
+00:03:19,850 --> 00:03:22,190
+التعليمات اللي ما بتنطبق على السوق العادى بتروح
+
+41
+00:03:22,190 --> 00:03:26,330
+على ال OTC market و هذه one of the largest markets
+
+42
+00:03:26,330 --> 00:03:30,750
+بفعلها ال nasdaqال OTC أكبر مثال إلها ال إيش؟ ال
+
+43
+00:03:30,750 --> 00:03:35,530
+Nasdaq، معرفين ال Nasdaq one of the largest market
+
+44
+00:03:35,530 --> 00:03:42,010
+in .. in .. in the world، أكبر سوق في العالم، أظن
+
+45
+00:03:42,010 --> 00:03:44,730
+بيجي بعد New York Stock Exchange، بعد سوق New York
+
+46
+00:03:46,610 --> 00:03:51,830
+فعشان هيك ال bond market يتم الاتجار فيها في ال
+
+47
+00:03:51,830 --> 00:03:56,130
+OTC markets حديثا او جديد السنوات الأخيرة صار ال
+
+48
+00:03:56,130 --> 00:03:59,090
+bond market صار ال bond market is traded through
+
+49
+00:03:59,090 --> 00:04:02,230
+the New York Stock Exchange طبعا احنا في الأسواق
+
+50
+00:04:02,230 --> 00:04:04,970
+السوق الفلسطيني مافيش عنده bond market مافيش عنده
+
+51
+00:04:04,970 --> 00:04:12,050
+أسواق سندات لكن في في مصر مثلا في دبي في هذه الدول
+
+52
+00:04:12,050 --> 00:04:14,730
+في عندهم أسواق سندات okay
+
+53
+00:04:17,710 --> 00:04:20,830
+comparing with the stock market, the bond market
+
+54
+00:04:20,830 --> 00:04:26,510
+is very thin، thin يعني محدود، يعني ال stock
+
+55
+00:04:26,510 --> 00:04:30,750
+market is heavily traded, however the bond market
+
+56
+00:04:30,750 --> 00:04:36,600
+is a thin traded، يعني الاتجار فيه ضعيفليش ال bond
+
+57
+00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:40,640
+market السندات؟ ليش تصبح ضعيف؟ because the trading
+
+58
+00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,760
+on the bond market is limited to the corporations
+
+59
+00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:47,840
+and governments لأنه الاتجار في سوق السندات فقط
+
+60
+00:04:47,840 --> 00:04:52,780
+محدود للشركات وللحكومة فمعناه كلام ال individuals
+
+61
+00:04:52,780 --> 00:04:57,200
+they cannot access this market مقدروش انه يعملوا
+
+62
+00:04:57,200 --> 00:04:58,440
+trade في هذا السوق
+
+63
+00:05:01,030 --> 00:05:04,370
+زي ما حكينا أجديد ال New York Stock Exchange طبعا
+
+64
+00:05:04,370 --> 00:05:12,590
+هو هو is secondary market is expanding its bond
+
+65
+00:05:12,590 --> 00:05:18,210
+trading system اللي صاروا يتوسعوا في عملية بيع و
+
+66
+00:05:18,210 --> 00:05:21,890
+شراء السندات لكن بالأساس كان هو ال Nasdaq is
+
+67
+00:05:21,890 --> 00:05:25,140
+dominated this marketبعد New York Stock Exchange
+
+68
+00:05:25,140 --> 00:05:30,640
+صار برضه سوق شيكاجو الأسواق الأخرى ال euro market
+
+69
+00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:33,200
+euro next كلهم صاروا يشتغلوا في ال bond markets
+
+70
+00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:38,460
+New York Stock Exchange now after the expansion
+
+71
+00:05:39,490 --> 00:05:43,010
+after the expansion, New York Stock Exchange bonds
+
+72
+00:05:43,010 --> 00:05:46,830
+is the largest centralized bond market of any US
+
+73
+00:05:46,830 --> 00:05:51,750
+exchange بعد التوسع اللي عملوها في التسويق للسندات
+
+74
+00:05:51,750 --> 00:05:55,290
+أصبح New York Stock Exchange هو أكبر سوق سندات في
+
+75
+00:05:55,290 --> 00:06:01,870
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية هذا
+
+76
+00:06:01,870 --> 00:06:06,570
+التطور في ال bond trading market
+
+77
+00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:14,000
+نرجع لبعض الأسواق العالمية و بس يعني تاخدوا نظرة
+
+78
+00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:18,540
+عنها في عندنا London Stock Exchange and London
+
+79
+00:06:18,540 --> 00:06:21,620
+Stock Exchange is electronic markets سوق إلكتروني
+
+80
+00:06:21,620 --> 00:06:29,120
+كله بال .. بال stocks و بال bonds السوق سندات و
+
+81
+00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:34,160
+حكينا عن ال Euronext ال Euronext markets هذا ال
+
+82
+00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:40,050
+Euronext بدوم مجموعة أسواق مع بعضيعني هو سوق من
+
+83
+00:06:40,050 --> 00:06:44,330
+مجموعة أسواق إيش الأسواق اللي بضمها باريس و
+
+84
+00:06:44,330 --> 00:06:48,030
+Amsterdam and Brussels exchange كلهم يعني لو إحنا
+
+85
+00:06:48,030 --> 00:06:52,610
+بنعمل اتجار في أي سوق من هدول أسواق okay ال euro
+
+86
+00:06:52,610 --> 00:06:56,530
+next هو اللي بنفذ العمليات اللي بتتم في باريس في
+
+87
+00:06:56,530 --> 00:07:01,530
+Amsterdam and Brussels و بعدين اللي صار اليوم كمان
+
+88
+00:07:01,530 --> 00:07:04,910
+و المرة الأخيرة سألنا سؤال why the prices moving
+
+89
+00:07:04,910 --> 00:07:11,130
+together لأنه صار في mergingbetween the some euros
+
+90
+00:07:11,130 --> 00:07:14,990
+markets and united states markets يعني صار اندماج
+
+91
+00:07:14,990 --> 00:07:18,970
+أو دمج في بعض الأسواق الأوروبية و بعض الأسواق
+
+92
+00:07:18,970 --> 00:07:23,330
+الأمريكية يعني زي ما صار في دمج بين euronext و بين
+
+93
+00:07:23,330 --> 00:07:27,620
+ال New York Stock Exchangeفهذا ال damage صار إنه
+
+94
+00:07:27,620 --> 00:07:32,680
+إحنا لو بناريش أي سهم أو أي سند من .. من أوروبا
+
+95
+00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,280
+ممكن نشتريه من البلاد المتحدة الأمريكية okay صار
+
+96
+00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:39,540
+ال .. ال companies listed in the United States the
+
+97
+00:07:39,540 --> 00:07:41,640
+same companies listed in the .. in European
+
+98
+00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:46,740
+countries markets فهذا صار في تداخل في الأسواق
+
+99
+00:07:46,740 --> 00:07:51,940
+الناجين فينا كمان من الأسواق القوية Tokyo Stock
+
+100
+00:07:51,940 --> 00:07:54,960
+Exchange Tokyo Stock Exchange من أقوى الأسواق في
+
+101
+00:07:54,960 --> 00:08:00,300
+منطقة أسياتوكيو بتلاحظوا ان الأسواق المالية هذه
+
+102
+00:08:00,300 --> 00:08:05,540
+ايش السبب انه بيعملوا merging و .. و .. و .. و
+
+103
+00:08:05,540 --> 00:08:09,140
+بيكون في 24 hours trading لو احنا مشينا مع عقار
+
+104
+00:08:09,140 --> 00:08:13,210
+بالساعةلو مشينا مع أقارب الساعة نشوف هالأسواق
+
+105
+00:08:13,210 --> 00:08:17,970
+المالية هي كده تمشي مع أقارب الساعة اليوم الساعة
+
+106
+00:08:17,970 --> 00:08:20,570
+الصباح الساعة تمانية الصبح بتشرق الشمس على آسيا
+
+107
+00:08:20,570 --> 00:08:24,990
+صح؟ أول ما بتبدأ الشمس تشرق من منطقة آسيا الصين
+
+108
+00:08:24,990 --> 00:08:29,450
+واليابان فبتكون تونتو يفاتح يعني من الساعة اتناشر
+
+109
+00:08:29,450 --> 00:08:36,210
+في الليل احنا بتوقيت فلسطين لتمانية صباح توقيتنا
+
+110
+00:08:36,210 --> 00:08:40,300
+بتكون منطقة آسيا بتفتح سوق بسوقOkay واحدة واحدة
+
+111
+00:08:40,300 --> 00:08:44,480
+يعني كل ساعة تفتحنا سوق تبدأ الدنيا ماشية من .. من
+
+112
+00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:48,380
+قاسي يعني لو احنا بنمشي هذا الشمس و بتمشي الشمس
+
+113
+00:08:48,380 --> 00:08:53,780
+بهذه الطريقة هاي okay فبتقابلنا ال Japan okay
+
+114
+00:08:53,780 --> 00:08:57,660
+بعدين بتمشي بتفتح China and and so on بعدين تدخل
+
+115
+00:08:57,660 --> 00:09:01,380
+على ال middle eastفي ال middle east تبدأ الساعة
+
+116
+00:09:01,380 --> 00:09:06,040
+تمانية تفتح الدنيا صح اللي هو eight طبعا هاي ال
+
+117
+00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,900
+middle east فأهم سوق في ال middle east هو سوق دبي
+
+118
+00:09:08,900 --> 00:09:13,860
+او سوق .. سوق دبي، سوق قطر، البحرين، الأكسندريا و
+
+119
+00:09:13,860 --> 00:09:20,060
+كايرو وعمان، هدول أسواق بتفتح يعني ورا بعضو اذا
+
+120
+00:09:20,060 --> 00:09:24,500
+احنا we moving و تبضلنا ماشيين الساعة عشرة صباح
+
+121
+00:09:24,500 --> 00:09:28,140
+طلقيتنا برضه بتفتح تبقى زي فتح أوروبا تمشي الشمس
+
+122
+00:09:28,140 --> 00:09:33,140
+عشان تشرق على أوروبا بتبقى بلندن فرانكفورت باريس
+
+123
+00:09:33,140 --> 00:09:38,380
+كله بيمشي معاهم بعدين again الساعة طبعا لو حكينا
+
+124
+00:09:38,380 --> 00:09:42,140
+احنا من الساعة اتناش تمانية من الساعة تمانية لساعة
+
+125
+00:09:42,140 --> 00:09:49,330
+اربعة بيبدو ال middle east plus Europe و أوروباشرق
+
+126
+00:09:49,330 --> 00:09:53,730
+الأوسط وأوروبا ماشيين على خطوط متساوي بعدين من
+
+127
+00:09:53,730 --> 00:09:59,950
+السقع 4 مين بده مفتاح؟iso united states من الساعة
+
+128
+00:09:59,950 --> 00:10:02,990
+أربعة بيبدو لعند الساعة اتناش أسواق الولايات
+
+129
+00:10:02,990 --> 00:10:06,490
+المتاحة الأمريكية كندا و المكسيك و الدول أمريكا
+
+130
+00:10:06,490 --> 00:10:10,730
+الشمالية و أمريكا الجنوبية okay فبصير .. بصير هيك
+
+131
+00:10:10,730 --> 00:10:14,530
+الأسواق المالية كلها بتكون كل فاتحة twenty four
+
+132
+00:10:14,530 --> 00:10:18,050
+hours فعشان هيك بحتاجوا يعملوا merging بين الأسواق
+
+133
+00:10:18,050 --> 00:10:20,870
+المالية عشان مايصيرش في fluctuation بالاسعار يعني
+
+134
+00:10:20,870 --> 00:10:27,520
+هلأ مثلا ب .. بستطيع أشري مثلا ال IBM من دبيحتى
+
+135
+00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:29,660
+even the stock market .. the New York stock
+
+136
+00:10:29,660 --> 00:10:33,600
+exchange is closed then if the New York stock
+
+137
+00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:38,740
+exchange is closed I can buy and trade in Japan so
+
+138
+00:10:38,740 --> 00:10:42,120
+because most of companies listed in different
+
+139
+00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:47,020
+markets يعني مثلًا إن كان شركة بالتل الشركة
+
+140
+00:10:47,020 --> 00:10:49,580
+الإتصالات الفلسطينية كانت في عامة dual listing مع
+
+141
+00:10:49,580 --> 00:10:54,680
+دبي فكان ممكن يعمل trade في فلسطين و trade في دبي
+
+142
+00:10:55,510 --> 00:10:58,490
+فزي ما تشايفين كيف ال financial market is moving
+
+143
+00:10:58,490 --> 00:11:04,070
+according to the sunrise يعني بتمشي حسب شروق الشمس
+
+144
+00:11:04,070 --> 00:11:07,490
+عشان هيك هدول ال dealers بيقولوا ال financial
+
+145
+00:11:07,490 --> 00:11:11,570
+market is open 24 hours شغالة 24 ساعة
+
+146
+00:11:14,380 --> 00:11:17,440
+Okay فعشان هيك احنا بنحكي عن الأسواق المالية دول
+
+147
+00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,000
+ضروري تعرفوا حتى للناس اللي بيشتغلوا بال .. بال
+
+148
+00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,900
+investments they have to know what is going in
+
+149
+00:11:22,900 --> 00:11:25,380
+London Stock Exchange, what is going in Euronext,
+
+150
+00:11:25,540 --> 00:11:29,180
+in Tokyo, in .. in Nasdaq, in .. in Dubai, in
+
+151
+00:11:29,180 --> 00:11:34,400
+Cairo, in all of these countries, even Nigeria you
+
+152
+00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:38,900
+have to know حتى في نيجيرا في عندهم سوقخوّي في
+
+153
+00:11:38,900 --> 00:11:42,120
+نيجيريا و نيجيريا تنسوش انه اللي صار في
+
+154
+00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:46,380
+developments كبير صاروا ي .. اللي هو ينتجوا ثالث
+
+155
+00:11:46,380 --> 00:11:51,440
+أكبر سينما في العالم اليوم أول واحدة هوليود و
+
+156
+00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:56,760
+تانية اللي هي اللي بتاعة إنديا هوليود و بعدين
+
+157
+00:11:56,760 --> 00:12:01,900
+نيليود، نيليود فصاروا في attract for big
+
+158
+00:12:01,900 --> 00:12:05,080
+investments in نيجيريايعني صارت نيجيريا تعمل
+
+159
+00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,900
+attracting لل big investments و عندهم أسواق مالية
+
+160
+00:12:07,900 --> 00:12:11,160
+برضه بتطورها في South Africa، في جنوب أفريقيا و في
+
+161
+00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:16,240
+نيجيريا فعشان هيك كويس ان ال .. to take your eye
+
+162
+00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:21,260
+in all of these markets
+
+163
+00:12:21,260 --> 00:12:25,460
+ال New York .. New York Stock Exchange measures
+
+164
+00:12:25,460 --> 00:12:30,670
+and acquisitionsسوق New York صار يعمل كتير
+
+165
+00:12:30,670 --> 00:12:35,150
+managing، سيطرة لبعض الأسواق المالية و
+
+166
+00:12:35,150 --> 00:12:39,370
+acquisitions و كمان يمتلك هذه الأسواق، يعني مش بس
+
+167
+00:12:39,370 --> 00:12:44,790
+damage، كمان امتلاك لبعض الأسواقطبعا عملية ال
+
+168
+00:12:44,790 --> 00:12:48,130
+damage بتتم من خلال ال ACN أنا موضحتش معناه ال ACN
+
+169
+00:12:48,130 --> 00:12:51,450
+اللي هو Electronic Communication Networks يعني
+
+170
+00:12:51,450 --> 00:12:54,550
+عملية .. عملية الرابط الإلكتروني you don't need to
+
+171
+00:12:54,550 --> 00:12:57,010
+move the market from place to another you just
+
+172
+00:12:57,010 --> 00:13:00,850
+connect the market in a particular computer
+
+173
+00:13:00,850 --> 00:13:05,660
+networkفصاروا يستخدموا ال ECM، كمان استخدموا اللي
+
+174
+00:13:05,660 --> 00:13:08,060
+.. اللي عملوا damage مع ال American Stock
+
+175
+00:13:08,060 --> 00:13:11,080
+Exchange، most of the American Stock Exchange is
+
+176
+00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:12,960
+merging with the .. with the New York Stock
+
+177
+00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,200
+Exchange، كمان عملوا damage مع ال Euronext،
+
+178
+00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,940
+Euronext اللي حكينا فيها اللي هو أسواق أوروبا،
+
+179
+00:13:18,940 --> 00:13:20,240
+اللي بتاخدون باريس و أمستردام
+
+180
+00:13:23,830 --> 00:13:26,890
+Okay أستاذ، عملية الدمج هنا نفسها ليست ضابط
+
+181
+00:13:26,890 --> 00:13:32,050
+إلكتروني؟ لأ، الضابط الإلكتروني هي نوع أو خلّيني
+
+182
+00:13:32,050 --> 00:13:36,950
+أحكي أنه وسيلة وسالة أه okay وحتى في سوق ال ACN
+
+183
+00:13:36,950 --> 00:13:40,530
+كمان هو مدمج في داخل ال New York Stock Exchange
+
+184
+00:13:40,530 --> 00:13:44,010
+إيش يعني ال ACN؟ ال ACN هي Electronic
+
+185
+00:13:44,010 --> 00:13:48,690
+Communication Networks among the dealers بين ال
+
+186
+00:13:48,690 --> 00:13:52,290
+dealers نفسهمف New York Stock Exchange عشان انتوا
+
+187
+00:13:52,290 --> 00:13:55,110
+بعرفش I don't know you read when you go home or
+
+188
+00:13:55,110 --> 00:13:59,450
+not the New York Stock Exchange is specialist
+
+189
+00:13:59,450 --> 00:14:06,710
+markets however the the ACM is dealer markets so
+
+190
+00:14:06,710 --> 00:14:08,990
+the New York New York Stock Exchange is merging
+
+191
+00:14:08,990 --> 00:14:12,460
+with two different types of marketsthe dealer
+
+192
+00:14:12,460 --> 00:14:15,000
+market and the specialist market يعني صار في عملية
+
+193
+00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,840
+دمج بين نوعين مختلفين ال New York Stock Exchange
+
+194
+00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,400
+هو سوق .. سوق specialist و رسمنالكوا الرسمة كيف ال
+
+195
+00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:26,820
+.. إذا فاكرين لما رسمنا الرسمة هذه okay و حكينا
+
+196
+00:14:26,820 --> 00:14:30,440
+إنه في seats هنا و في dealers dealers okay و
+
+197
+00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,140
+بيتعاملوا مع الناس ال specialists اللي هون فصار
+
+198
+00:14:33,140 --> 00:14:37,340
+عملية دمج هذه بيسموهم ECMs لأن البربط بيناتهم هي
+
+199
+00:14:37,340 --> 00:14:39,680
+نظام ال ECMs ال ECMs اللي هو Electronic
+
+200
+00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:43,600
+Communication Networksشبكات إلكترونية و بتربط ال
+
+201
+00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,600
+dealers نفسهم فهذا بيسموه dealer markets و حكينا
+
+202
+00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:48,840
+هذا New York Stock Exchange specialist markets
+
+203
+00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:55,220
+فصار عليه الدمج بين السوقين صار فيه تكامل بين دور
+
+204
+00:14:55,220 --> 00:14:58,340
+ال dealers markets و بين دور ال specialist markets
+
+205
+00:14:59,650 --> 00:15:03,270
+كمان صار كمان مع ال euro next markets ال euro next
+
+206
+00:15:03,270 --> 00:15:08,210
+هو أسواق أوروبا و بالتالي صار أنه ممكن احنا يعني
+
+207
+00:15:08,210 --> 00:15:11,070
+مثلا شركة بدأ تعمل underwriting شركة بدأ تعمل
+
+208
+00:15:11,070 --> 00:15:14,710
+expansion فممكن تعمل من خلال ال euro next market و
+
+209
+00:15:14,710 --> 00:15:20,910
+من خلال ال New York Stock Exchangeفاشوفوا كام قوة
+
+210
+00:15:20,910 --> 00:15:24,710
+هذه الأسواق بتصير قبل الاندماج كام هي قوية و بعد
+
+211
+00:15:24,710 --> 00:15:31,170
+الاندماج كام هي هتكون قوية فأسواق مليارات دولارات
+
+212
+00:15:31,170 --> 00:15:36,870
+مليارات transactions تم الشغل فيهم ال nasdaq زي ما
+
+213
+00:15:36,870 --> 00:15:39,750
+حكينا ال nasdaq برضه صار في mergers and
+
+214
+00:15:39,750 --> 00:15:44,510
+acquisitionطبعا الناس ده اكتسوش هو سوق Dealers
+
+215
+00:15:44,510 --> 00:15:49,370
+برضه هو بيشبه ال ACN's لكن هو OTC over the counter
+
+216
+00:15:49,370 --> 00:15:54,770
+يعني هو OTC كمان سوق غير نظام صحيح في عملية damage
+
+217
+00:15:54,770 --> 00:15:59,430
+بين ال Instant Inet ACN في نوع من أنواع الأسواق
+
+218
+00:15:59,430 --> 00:16:04,370
+المالية اسمها Instant Instant Net و Boston Stock
+
+219
+00:16:04,370 --> 00:16:09,580
+Exchange Boston برضه من الأسواق المالية القويةكان
+
+220
+00:16:09,580 --> 00:16:13,400
+أصحى فيه دمج في Chicago، Chicago هي من أكبر
+
+221
+00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:17,240
+الأسواق في ال .. ال futures، كانت .. ألا أظن يمكن
+
+222
+00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,460
+ال site بتاعة ال New York Stock Exchange، Chicago
+
+223
+00:16:19,460 --> 00:16:22,640
+كانت من أولى الأسواق المالية اللي هي كانت تتعامل
+
+224
+00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,140
+مع ال futures و ال options و ال .. و ال forwards
+
+225
+00:16:25,140 --> 00:16:30,060
+اللي هو ال derivatives اللي هي بورصة Chicagoبرضه
+
+226
+00:16:30,060 --> 00:16:33,580
+صار في .. برضه صار في اندماج في Chicago Board of
+
+227
+00:16:33,580 --> 00:16:36,580
+Trade و New York Stock Exchange شوفوا كيف ال .. ال
+
+228
+00:16:36,580 --> 00:16:39,180
+.. ال .. احنا يعني ممكن انا I'm stressed point هنا
+
+229
+00:16:39,180 --> 00:16:43,200
+شوفوا أوروبا كان بعيدة عن United States يعني ممكن
+
+230
+00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:46,660
+نحتاج احنا eighteen hours flight تمنتاشر ساعة
+
+231
+00:16:46,660 --> 00:16:50,260
+نسافر عشان to go from the European countries to
+
+232
+00:16:50,260 --> 00:16:53,900
+the United States however we don't need to flight
+
+233
+00:16:53,900 --> 00:16:57,430
+in some places between the Arab countriesSo why
+
+234
+00:16:57,430 --> 00:17:00,530
+there is no merging and acquisitions between the
+
+235
+00:17:00,530 --> 00:17:04,330
+Arab markets or Arab stock markets؟ يعني خلاني أنا
+
+236
+00:17:04,330 --> 00:17:07,430
+برضه نطرح هذا السؤال ليش ما بيصيرش دمج رغم أنه في
+
+237
+00:17:07,430 --> 00:17:13,590
+دول بعيدة عن بعض، دول بشكل كبير ولكن بيصير فيه
+
+238
+00:17:13,590 --> 00:17:17,390
+اندماج بينهم ودول متجاورة وما بيصيرش فيه damage
+
+239
+00:17:17,390 --> 00:17:26,040
+بينهمالـ trading cost ال trading cost كيف نحسب لما
+
+240
+00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:31,300
+احنا بدنا نتاجر في السوق المالي عادة المرة الأولى
+
+241
+00:17:31,300 --> 00:17:33,360
+اللي حكيت when you are trading in the financial
+
+242
+00:17:33,360 --> 00:17:36,480
+market you have to bear the cost لازم تتحمل ال
+
+243
+00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:40,540
+cost one of these cost is the cost of trading or
+
+244
+00:17:40,540 --> 00:17:44,400
+the explicit cost of trading for instance
+
+245
+00:17:52,030 --> 00:17:55,590
+لما بيجي نحكي سعر ال bid and ask شرحنا لكوا يعنى
+
+246
+00:17:55,590 --> 00:18:00,070
+المرة التالت okay and we talk if this price 17 and
+
+247
+00:18:00,070 --> 00:18:05,230
+this price is 17.40 وحكينا from the from the
+
+248
+00:18:05,230 --> 00:18:09,170
+dealer perspective the spread is profit but from
+
+249
+00:18:09,170 --> 00:18:12,030
+the investor perspective the spread is the cost
+
+250
+00:18:12,940 --> 00:18:16,240
+يعني حكينا احنا مرة سابقة انه هاي أسعار البيع و
+
+251
+00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,960
+الشراء كل ما ال dealer بوسع سعر البيع و الشراء
+
+252
+00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,700
+الفرق بينهم بيزيد الربح تبعه لكن في ال .. في نفس
+
+253
+00:18:23,700 --> 00:18:26,980
+ال .. ال .. ال .. كل ما بيزيد ال spread كل ما ال
+
+254
+00:18:26,980 --> 00:18:32,200
+cost يعني التكاليف على ال investor بتزيد فها ال
+
+255
+00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:37,730
+cost بتحمل ال investors بتحمل نوعين من ال costاللي
+
+256
+00:18:37,730 --> 00:18:40,250
+هي ال cost of trading كاليف الإتجار نفسها ال
+
+257
+00:18:40,250 --> 00:18:44,230
+commission plus اللي هو transaction cost كلفة
+
+258
+00:18:44,230 --> 00:18:47,530
+العملية يعني الفرق بين ال bid و ال ask split يعني
+
+259
+00:18:47,530 --> 00:18:54,250
+في عنوان من ال .. من ال cost النوع
+
+260
+00:18:54,250 --> 00:18:59,030
+الأول خليناها explicit cost of trading okay اللي
+
+261
+00:18:59,030 --> 00:19:02,390
+هو cost of trading explicit بتكون واضحة و يكون
+
+262
+00:19:02,390 --> 00:19:05,890
+معروفة و ال full services versus discount
+
+263
+00:19:05,890 --> 00:19:10,130
+brokeragesاللي هو الخدمات اللي بيقدمها ال .. ال ..
+
+264
+00:19:10,130 --> 00:19:13,530
+الوسطاء الخدمات اللي بيقدمها الوسطاء بيحتاجوا
+
+265
+00:19:13,530 --> 00:19:17,950
+عمولات او اول اشياء كوميرشية تانية كل تلك العمليات
+
+266
+00:19:17,950 --> 00:19:21,790
+اللي بيجيب عليها اه هلأ explicit cost of trading
+
+267
+00:19:21,790 --> 00:19:26,310
+يعني هاي كل هذه بتكون تكاليف مثلا نحكي لما انت بدي
+
+268
+00:19:26,310 --> 00:19:30,750
+تدخل السوق ال buy و ال sell الوسيط بياخد عليها
+
+269
+00:19:30,750 --> 00:19:37,070
+commission معينOkay هذا ال commission من قيمة
+
+270
+00:19:37,070 --> 00:19:40,090
+الصفقة زي ما عندنا في سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية في
+
+271
+00:19:40,090 --> 00:19:43,870
+سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية بياخدوا commission هذا ال
+
+272
+00:19:43,870 --> 00:19:47,230
+commission مش بس لل .. لل .. لل broker كمان بتروح
+
+273
+00:19:47,230 --> 00:19:52,190
+جزء منها للسوق المالي okay بالإضافة لل spread اللي
+
+274
+00:19:52,190 --> 00:19:57,390
+حكينا فيه اللي هو الفرق بين ال bid و ال askو هنشوف
+
+275
+00:19:57,390 --> 00:20:01,510
+كمان شوية أنواع أخرى من ال cost ممكن يتحملها ل
+
+276
+00:20:01,510 --> 00:20:06,050
+trader طبعا it is implicit cost of trading هى
+
+277
+00:20:06,050 --> 00:20:10,290
+بتكون غير ظاهرة لما أنا بستخدم ال spreads بتكون
+
+278
+00:20:10,290 --> 00:20:12,570
+implicit أيش معناه implicit بتكون هي خفية
+
+279
+00:20:12,570 --> 00:20:18,450
+مابنشوفهاش يعني هلأ مثلا هنشوف لو احنا بنشتري
+
+280
+00:20:18,450 --> 00:20:23,330
+نشتري
+
+281
+00:20:23,330 --> 00:20:25,050
+مثلا سهم
+
+282
+00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:37,920
+بعدكم نفترض نفترض كان 2.5 2.55 ان ال spread كام ال
+
+283
+00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:42,620
+spread هو 0.05 مظبوط ال spread في الحالة هذه cost
+
+284
+00:20:42,620 --> 00:20:47,960
+بالنسبة لل investors ليش cost؟ لو هو اشترى اشترى
+
+285
+00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:52,720
+السهم عشتيه على 2.55 صح؟ لما بديوا يبيعوا بيبيعوا
+
+286
+00:20:52,720 --> 00:21:00,330
+على 2.5 فبيخسروا 0.5الان ال traders او ال dealers
+
+287
+00:21:00,330 --> 00:21:03,570
+ممكن يروح يوسع ال ..
+
+288
+00:21:06,820 --> 00:21:10,520
+يوسعوا ال spread فهذا implicit بيسموه يعني مش واضح
+
+289
+00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:15,320
+بيكون لل investors يمكن انتوا اللي عرفته بس ال
+
+290
+00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,620
+other investors they don't know about these things
+
+291
+00:21:17,620 --> 00:21:21,840
+ممكن مستخدميه مابيكون خفية و بعدين هاي بيدأس ال
+
+292
+00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,760
+spread واضح للكل بس في بعض الشغلات ممكن يستخدمها
+
+293
+00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:28,960
+ال dealer مابيكونش واضحة فديش صار الفرق بين اتهم
+
+294
+00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,720
+point 10 بنلاحظ كل ما احنا وسعنا ال spread كل ما
+
+295
+00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,560
+كان ال costارتفعت يعني هل ال cost مخفضة هل ال cost
+
+296
+00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:40,920
+مرتفعة فعشان هيك بيسموها implicit cost of trading
+
+297
+00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,000
+وزي ما احنا شرحنا المرة الفاترة لما حكينا على ال
+
+298
+00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:50,640
+.. على ال inventory حسب مستوى ال inventory بيروح
+
+299
+00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,140
+بي .. بيزود ال spread و بيخفض ال spread okay يعني
+
+300
+00:21:54,140 --> 00:21:58,040
+بيزود التكليف و بيخفض التكليف حتى يحافظ على limit
+
+301
+00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:05,500
+معين من ال .. من ال .. هذا هنيجي له بالتفصيلالنوع
+
+302
+00:22:05,500 --> 00:22:10,880
+اللى هنركز عليه كتير اللى هو ال margin cost اللى
+
+303
+00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:15,020
+هو buying by margin اه
+
+304
+00:22:15,020 --> 00:22:27,740
+ده اهم اشي فلو
+
+305
+00:22:27,740 --> 00:22:33,350
+احنا رجعنا هدول ال cost هدول اذا احناال .. ال
+
+306
+00:22:33,350 --> 00:22:38,690
+training costs هدول الكل لازم يتحملهم كل ال .. ال
+
+307
+00:22:38,690 --> 00:22:43,810
+investors بس في حالة ال margin سواء هاي ال
+
+308
+00:22:43,810 --> 00:22:49,750
+brokerage commission يعني عمولة ال .. الوساطة هي
+
+309
+00:22:49,750 --> 00:22:55,470
+نوع و اللي هو ال spread الفرق بين البيع والشرم في
+
+310
+00:22:55,470 --> 00:23:02,010
+شي؟ اه فال brokerage commissionأولت الوساطة لازم
+
+311
+00:23:02,010 --> 00:23:06,030
+احنا لازم ال ال brokerage services حسب نوع الوساطة
+
+312
+00:23:06,030 --> 00:23:08,490
+فيه بياخد commission و ال spread اللي هو طبعا
+
+313
+00:23:08,490 --> 00:23:09,350
+حاكينا فيه ال implicit
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/0_i7Eeu5nU0_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/0_i7Eeu5nU0_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0e834840b368e150362f4cb842f3604fd8644623
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/0_i7Eeu5nU0_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2252 @@
+1
+00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:23,920
+ال .. ال .. هاي المحاضرة التالتة بال financial
+
+2
+00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:29,040
+environments أو ال investment environment يعني
+
+3
+00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:33,960
+البيئة المالية فاحنا بنحكي بال separation of
+
+4
+00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,120
+ownership separation of ownership بتعني اللي هو
+
+5
+00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:42,640
+الفصل الإداري أو الفصل بين المستويات الإداريةو
+
+6
+00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,760
+just to remind you انذكركم ان المرة الفاتة the
+
+7
+00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:51,400
+previous meeting we talked about the separation of
+
+8
+00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:57,140
+ownership الفصل في المستويات الإدارية for instance
+
+9
+00:00:57,140 --> 00:01:04,040
+عند ال board of directors ال board of directors is
+
+10
+00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:09,720
+being elected by the owners okay electedثم مجلد
+
+11
+00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:15,200
+المديرين اختاروا الاختصارات الاختصارات
+
+12
+00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:25,900
+E1 E2 E3 E4 ثم الموظفين الآن باعتبار القوانين
+
+13
+00:01:25,900 --> 00:01:26,340
+الجديدة
+
+14
+00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:35,320
+in the separation of ownership the departments or
+
+15
+00:01:35,320 --> 00:01:36,740
+let's say the board of directors should be
+
+16
+00:01:36,740 --> 00:01:39,560
+separated from the executive يعني مجلس الإدارة
+
+17
+00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:44,280
+لازم يكون منفصل عن المدرأ ال managers كمان ال
+
+18
+00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:48,380
+managers be careful the managers shouldn't have
+
+19
+00:01:48,380 --> 00:01:52,260
+executive functions
+
+20
+00:01:52,940 --> 00:01:55,280
+مش لازم يكون عندهم executive functions هذه صارت
+
+21
+00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:59,000
+أخر إشي يعني بعد 2007 صار ضروري المدرة اللي
+
+22
+00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:02,660
+بيشاركوا في إدارة الشركة في مجلس الإدارة يعني لو
+
+23
+00:02:02,660 --> 00:02:06,600
+كان عند أنا هنا مدرة managers هدول ال managers
+
+24
+00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,320
+should be separated from the executives مش لازم
+
+25
+00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:13,500
+يدخلوا في إدارة الشركة بيحطوا هم بس ال strategies
+
+26
+00:02:13,500 --> 00:02:19,040
+بيحطوا ال strategias okay وما بيدخلوش في المهمة
+
+27
+00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:25,270
+التنفيذية للشركة ليش؟ عشانحتى المدرة نفسهم لما
+
+28
+00:02:25,270 --> 00:02:28,730
+بيحطوا ال strategies و يطلبوا من ال executive
+
+29
+00:02:28,730 --> 00:02:33,150
+المدراء التنفيذي ينافذوا هذه يظل المدرة دورهم دور
+
+30
+00:02:33,150 --> 00:02:37,850
+رقابي على ال executives و إلا لو كانوا تدخلوا فيها
+
+31
+00:02:37,850 --> 00:02:41,550
+فلو كان في خطأ ممكن يخبوه so this is why should be
+
+32
+00:02:41,550 --> 00:02:46,650
+separation between the board of directors and the
+
+33
+00:02:46,650 --> 00:02:50,490
+executivesand in the same vein فى نفس الطريقة
+
+34
+00:02:50,490 --> 00:02:54,370
+الناس الموجودين فى ال board of directors مش لازم
+
+35
+00:02:54,370 --> 00:03:01,750
+يتدخلوا فى أعمال المدرق okay exactly يعني هم they
+
+36
+00:03:01,750 --> 00:03:04,050
+are setting the strategies بيحطوا ال strategies
+
+37
+00:03:04,050 --> 00:03:07,910
+and they are observing what the executive doing
+
+38
+00:03:07,910 --> 00:03:12,750
+يعني هم بيحطوا بيطلعوا بيشوفوا بيراقبوا إيش ال
+
+39
+00:03:12,750 --> 00:03:17,150
+executive بيسووا المدرق التنفيذيينand in the same
+
+40
+00:03:17,150 --> 00:03:20,950
+.. in the same way كمان هدول ال executives هدول
+
+41
+00:03:20,950 --> 00:03:24,490
+الناس الموجودين بال .. بالمديرات التنفيذية مهمتهم
+
+42
+00:03:24,490 --> 00:03:29,890
+تنفيذ العمل حسب what is the strategy is saying حسب
+
+43
+00:03:29,890 --> 00:03:33,630
+الاستراتيجية شو بتحكي يعني بدكون هم عملهم مرتبط
+
+44
+00:03:33,630 --> 00:03:36,970
+بالاستراتيجية مابتدخلش ال board of directors
+
+45
+00:03:36,970 --> 00:03:40,650
+بشغلهم okay كمان هم مابتدخلوا في ال .. في ال board
+
+46
+00:03:40,650 --> 00:03:43,270
+of directors ال board of directors هم أعضاء مجلس
+
+47
+00:03:43,270 --> 00:03:44,470
+الإدارة did you write it
+
+48
+00:03:50,700 --> 00:03:54,840
+الboard of directors هم أعضاء مجلس إدارة كمان مرة
+
+49
+00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:59,020
+هدول أعضاء مجلس إدارة بس بيحطوا الاستراتيجيات they
+
+50
+00:03:59,020 --> 00:04:02,920
+are setting the headlines البقوس العامة للشركة
+
+51
+00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:07,720
+okay و بعدين they send it off to the executives
+
+52
+00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,560
+المدرع التنفيذيين المدرع التنفيذيين ما عليهم إلا
+
+53
+00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:12,740
+يقوموا بتنفيذ هذه المهم okay
+
+54
+00:04:15,010 --> 00:04:19,370
+لكن شو اللي صار؟ اللي صار انه المدرأ التنفيذيين ال
+
+55
+00:04:19,370 --> 00:04:24,030
+executives or the executive managers صاروا they
+
+56
+00:04:24,030 --> 00:04:26,730
+prefer their personal objectives rather than their
+
+57
+00:04:26,730 --> 00:04:31,750
+strategies صاروا يفضلوا مصالحهم الشخصية على مصالح
+
+58
+00:04:31,750 --> 00:04:37,750
+الشركة okay so what is the solution? the corporate
+
+59
+00:04:37,750 --> 00:04:40,920
+governanceال .. ال .. الحل هو وجود ال corporate
+
+60
+00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:44,340
+governance اللي هو الحوكمة اللي احنا بنحكي فيها
+
+61
+00:04:44,340 --> 00:04:49,360
+بال corporate governance طيب شو ال corporate
+
+62
+00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:53,540
+governance؟ what it means الحوكمة؟ اه تفضلوا
+
+63
+00:04:53,540 --> 00:05:00,320
+الحوكمة شو معناها؟ what it means governance؟ يارا
+
+64
+00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:05,480
+نترك الإجابة لكم اه تفضلوا احكي بالعربي
+
+65
+00:05:10,410 --> 00:05:15,210
+صح؟ صح؟ يعني هي عبارة عن ال rules, regulations
+
+66
+00:05:15,210 --> 00:05:19,490
+that organize the relationship between the .. the
+
+67
+00:05:19,490 --> 00:05:24,010
+owners and the .. the executives or the board of
+
+68
+00:05:24,010 --> 00:05:28,650
+directors مين عنده كمان شغلة؟ okay اتفضلي
+
+69
+00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,800
+صحيح؟ و أيضا هي من القوانين اللي تقلد المعايشة
+
+70
+00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:41,220
+التعداد البارية لكتير المستخدمين. Okay صح okay The
+
+71
+00:05:41,220 --> 00:05:45,220
+set of laws and decisions to achieving quality and
+
+72
+00:05:45,220 --> 00:05:47,900
+excellence in performance by selecting the
+
+73
+00:05:47,900 --> 00:05:50,960
+operation method to achieve the plans and
+
+74
+00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:55,400
+objectivesOkay so according to your definition it
+
+75
+00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:59,280
+means the executives are free to select the
+
+76
+00:05:59,280 --> 00:06:04,720
+policies or the how to transfer the transactions
+
+77
+00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:09,660
+into strategies يعني خلينا بي .. إيش اللي بيصير؟
+
+78
+00:06:09,660 --> 00:06:14,260
+هدول بحطوا ال strategies okay هدول اللي هو ال
+
+79
+00:06:14,260 --> 00:06:18,220
+executives they translate strategies into actions
+
+80
+00:06:19,180 --> 00:06:22,560
+يعني بيحولوا ال استراتيجيات إلى أفعال okay into
+
+81
+00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:27,540
+actions these actions should be linked with the
+
+82
+00:06:27,540 --> 00:06:32,080
+strategy لازم يكون مرتبطة بالاستراتيجيةOkay for
+
+83
+00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,640
+instance على سبيل المثال the main business
+
+84
+00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:40,020
+strategy of the firm is to maximize the
+
+85
+00:06:40,020 --> 00:06:45,020
+shareholder firms or to maximize the firm's value
+
+86
+00:06:45,020 --> 00:06:48,500
+يعني الاستراتيجية الأساسية اللي هو maximize firm
+
+87
+00:06:48,500 --> 00:06:54,790
+valueيعني تعظيم قيمة المنشأة تعظيم قيمة المنشأة
+
+88
+00:06:54,790 --> 00:06:58,370
+هذا الاستراتيجية الأساسية now the executive asking
+
+89
+00:06:58,370 --> 00:07:03,030
+themselves what are the actions should be taken to
+
+90
+00:07:03,030 --> 00:07:08,890
+translate the value يعني ما هي الوسائل اللي احنا
+
+91
+00:07:08,890 --> 00:07:12,570
+لازم نستخدمها عشان حتى نقوم بتحقيق الاستراتيجية
+
+92
+00:07:12,570 --> 00:07:18,170
+okay this is a big question okay for instance if
+
+93
+00:07:18,170 --> 00:07:23,440
+we talk about appleand you know apple شركة apple
+
+94
+00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:28,920
+so the apple the strategy of apple is to maximize
+
+95
+00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:35,600
+the fan value now this question is sent off to the
+
+96
+00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:40,260
+executives لنبعت لل executive and the executives
+
+97
+00:07:40,260 --> 00:07:46,620
+sets the actions هم دورهم يشتغلوا طيب ايش هيسوي ال
+
+98
+00:07:46,620 --> 00:07:49,840
+executive السؤال الكبير ان هم بدهم يعزموا ال fan
+
+99
+00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:54,590
+valueطيب إيش أبل لازم تسوي؟ ال managers بتاعون
+
+100
+00:07:54,590 --> 00:07:57,430
+أبل، شو لازم يعملوا؟ المدراء التنفيذيين، عشان
+
+101
+00:07:57,430 --> 00:08:01,970
+يحققوا هذا الهدف؟ حاولوا يعملوا .. okay how؟ خلينا
+
+102
+00:08:01,970 --> 00:08:08,510
+.. okay okay they follow the rules of the board of
+
+103
+00:08:08,510 --> 00:08:11,190
+directors but how they transfer these into
+
+104
+00:08:11,190 --> 00:08:14,910
+actions؟ يعني هل عملوا مثلا ال iPhone 4 و ال
+
+105
+00:08:14,910 --> 00:08:19,010
+iPhone 5؟ شو الجديد اللي صار بال .. okay إذا انت
+
+106
+00:08:19,010 --> 00:08:25,280
+competition competesthe word regarding the product
+
+107
+00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:29,180
+of the iPhone يعني مثلا بدهم يضيفوا يعملوا
+
+108
+00:08:29,180 --> 00:08:32,960
+developments على ال iPhone هذا ال developments
+
+109
+00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,880
+بيكون هذا ال developments يعني على مستوى العالم
+
+110
+00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:40,060
+بحيث كل ما زادوا ال developments تبعت ال iPhone
+
+111
+00:08:40,060 --> 00:08:44,600
+اللي بيصير ال customer بيزيد شراءه لهذه ال iPhones
+
+112
+00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:50,150
+هتزيد الأرباح هتصير زيادة من ال maximize valueOkay
+
+113
+00:08:50,150 --> 00:08:53,870
+فهم بيسيروا المهندسين الموجودين هان و ال marketing
+
+114
+00:08:53,870 --> 00:08:56,990
+و كلهم بيشتغلوا مع بعض how to improve the quality
+
+115
+00:08:56,990 --> 00:09:01,630
+and the services of the iphone 5 تمام ايش ال
+
+116
+00:09:01,630 --> 00:09:04,630
+services ايش ال facilities كلها فبالتالي ال board
+
+117
+00:09:04,630 --> 00:09:08,910
+of directors بس حطوا general strategies وضل هدول
+
+118
+00:09:08,910 --> 00:09:13,850
+دورهم how to do this كيف ان هم يشتغلوا و يحققوا
+
+119
+00:09:13,850 --> 00:09:19,790
+النتائج بتاعة ال strategiesهل ال strategy .. هدول
+
+120
+00:09:19,790 --> 00:09:23,850
+executives بعد ما يحققوا هاي الأهداف ال objectives
+
+121
+00:09:23,850 --> 00:09:28,830
+بيجي دول ال board of directors to see .. بيشوفوا
+
+122
+00:09:28,830 --> 00:09:33,350
+هل هدول حققوا what we are saying or not؟ هل حققوا
+
+123
+00:09:33,350 --> 00:09:37,980
+إيش اللي إحنا بنحكي فيه ولا ماحققوش؟فصار دورهم ال
+
+124
+00:09:37,980 --> 00:09:42,920
+board of directors is like auditing يتأكدوا من ان
+
+125
+00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:49,680
+ال executives بيشتغلوا حسب ما يحتاج ال time ايش
+
+126
+00:09:49,680 --> 00:09:53,620
+كمان له علاقة ال corporate governance انت كنت بدك
+
+127
+00:09:53,620 --> 00:09:58,780
+تحكي okay it is the act of governing is related to
+
+128
+00:09:58,780 --> 00:10:05,630
+decision that defineexpectations توقعت يعني it
+
+129
+00:10:05,630 --> 00:10:09,090
+consists of either a separate process of the part
+
+130
+00:10:09,090 --> 00:10:13,270
+of the decision making or leadership process okay
+
+131
+00:10:13,270 --> 00:10:16,310
+so هي زي ما اتفضلتها انه يالي بنعمل separation في
+
+132
+00:10:16,310 --> 00:10:19,610
+ال leadership ان يكون هدول ال board of directors
+
+133
+00:10:19,610 --> 00:10:22,790
+هم بيبحث بيحطوا ال strategies and they are
+
+134
+00:10:22,790 --> 00:10:25,410
+responsible on this و بعدين ال leadership
+
+135
+00:10:25,410 --> 00:10:31,010
+الموجودين في ال executive level just to focus on
+
+136
+00:10:31,010 --> 00:10:35,040
+leading the businessOkay how we can do the
+
+137
+00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:39,660
+corporate governance it should be transparency you
+
+138
+00:10:39,660 --> 00:10:42,340
+know what it means transparency transparency it
+
+139
+00:10:42,340 --> 00:10:50,640
+means الوضوح الشفافية الشفافية يعني مثلا ال board
+
+140
+00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:54,040
+of directors يكون واضحين الاستراتيجية تبعتهم واضحة
+
+141
+00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:58,680
+ال actions بتاعة ال executives لازم يكون واضحة
+
+142
+00:10:58,680 --> 00:11:04,250
+فبسموها transparencyسمعتوها transparency فمن أحد
+
+143
+00:11:04,250 --> 00:11:08,270
+مبادئ ال corporate governance أنه ال executives هم
+
+144
+00:11:08,270 --> 00:11:14,670
+بنفذوا ال استراتيجيات تكون هذه الاستراتيجيات واضحة
+
+145
+00:11:14,670 --> 00:11:18,730
+and linked with these strategies تكون فيها وضوح مش
+
+146
+00:11:18,730 --> 00:11:24,090
+فيها غمض okay why because sometimes executives
+
+147
+00:11:24,090 --> 00:11:30,010
+they try to achieve their own objectivesبدهم
+
+148
+00:11:30,010 --> 00:11:33,550
+يحققوا أهدافهم they should declare that these
+
+149
+00:11:33,550 --> 00:11:37,050
+objectives are linked with the strategies لازم
+
+150
+00:11:37,050 --> 00:11:40,930
+تكونوا واضحين أن هذه الأهداف هي تابعة لستراتيجية
+
+151
+00:11:40,930 --> 00:11:47,470
+المنشأة okay فهذه شغل اسمها transparency because
+
+152
+00:11:47,470 --> 00:11:51,830
+the failure of applying transparencyعارفين شو بقى
+
+153
+00:11:51,830 --> 00:11:53,870
+because of the failure of applying transparency
+
+154
+00:11:53,870 --> 00:11:58,130
+بسبب ان هم مافيش له الشركات المتقدمة الشركات
+
+155
+00:11:58,130 --> 00:12:00,590
+الأوروبية و الأمريكية مافيش لتقديم ال transparency
+
+156
+00:12:00,590 --> 00:12:06,590
+تطبيقها صار في إفلاس لكتير شركات okay أهم هذه
+
+157
+00:12:06,590 --> 00:12:10,470
+الشركات كانت word.com okay or worldwide company
+
+158
+00:12:10,470 --> 00:12:15,590
+ثاني أهم شركة في العالم أكبر شركة كانت تنتج الطاقة
+
+159
+00:12:15,590 --> 00:12:20,630
+في العالم هي شركة Enronو انا ب .. يعني I recommend
+
+160
+00:12:20,630 --> 00:12:28,110
+you to read why Enron فال؟ ليش Enron خسره؟ خسرت
+
+161
+00:12:28,110 --> 00:12:30,650
+Enron بسبب they .. they failed to apply the
+
+162
+00:12:30,650 --> 00:12:34,250
+corporate governance خسره لإن هما ما طبقوش ال
+
+163
+00:12:34,250 --> 00:12:37,930
+corporate governance طبعا أنا طلبت منكوا تقرؤوا
+
+164
+00:12:37,930 --> 00:12:46,510
+الكلام هذا، في حد عرف ليش Enron خسرت؟ ليش؟ في صفحه
+
+165
+00:12:46,510 --> 00:12:53,060
+تمانيةin page eight انا حكيت انهم فشلوا في تطبيق
+
+166
+00:12:53,060 --> 00:12:56,380
+ال corporate governance how they fail to apply
+
+167
+00:12:56,380 --> 00:12:57,260
+corporate governance
+
+168
+00:13:02,260 --> 00:13:06,120
+حكينا من أحد مبادئ ال transparency أحد مبادئ ال ..
+
+169
+00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,880
+ال .. ال corporate governance ال transparency و
+
+170
+00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,240
+كمان اللي هو separation of the ownership و
+
+171
+00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:15,400
+separation in the .. in the management ليش ال
+
+172
+00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:20,380
+Enron مطبخوش ال .. ال .. ال governance شريك صحيح
+
+173
+00:13:20,380 --> 00:13:23,480
+وبالتالي they .. they .. they lose a lot of money
+
+174
+00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:27,400
+عارفين كام خسائر ال Enron؟ كام؟ خسائر شركة Enron
+
+175
+00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,540
+مجموعة ما تنفقه الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية على
+
+176
+00:13:30,540 --> 00:13:36,570
+عالم التالت كلهاشفتوا قداش؟ شركة Enrol لوحدها لما
+
+177
+00:13:36,570 --> 00:13:40,270
+خسرت لما صار عندهم drop خسرت بمجموع ما تنفقه
+
+178
+00:13:40,270 --> 00:13:44,550
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية على عالم التالت كله طيب
+
+179
+00:13:44,550 --> 00:13:50,330
+السبب الرئيسي لخسرتهم أحد أهم مبادئ ال corporate
+
+180
+00:13:50,330 --> 00:13:53,630
+governance لازم يكون في شغل اسمها auditing عارفين
+
+181
+00:13:53,630 --> 00:14:01,210
+شو معنى auditing؟ رقابة okay الرقابة نوعينyes we
+
+182
+00:14:01,210 --> 00:14:03,510
+have internal auditing and we have external
+
+183
+00:14:03,510 --> 00:14:08,810
+auditing fine so the internal auditors they are
+
+184
+00:14:08,810 --> 00:14:12,910
+menu plates in the financial statements كانوا
+
+185
+00:14:12,910 --> 00:14:17,930
+يتلاعبوا في إيش في ال financial statements and
+
+186
+00:14:17,930 --> 00:14:22,570
+they hire a consultations or a consultants from a
+
+187
+00:14:22,570 --> 00:14:25,550
+particular company let's say Merrill Lynch
+
+188
+00:14:28,340 --> 00:14:31,520
+شركة Merrill Lynch شركة Merrill Lynch هي اكبر من
+
+189
+00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:38,740
+اكبر الشركات المالية في العالم وكانوا عاملين اتفاق
+
+190
+00:14:38,740 --> 00:14:46,420
+مع Anderson شركة Anderson كانت
+
+191
+00:14:46,420 --> 00:14:55,400
+متفقة مع شركة Enron يقدموا شغلتين احفظوهم Anderson
+
+192
+00:14:56,920 --> 00:15:01,360
+Anderson تدقيق .. تدقيق محاسب okay يخدموا شغلتين
+
+193
+00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:06,100
+consultation and
+
+194
+00:15:06,100 --> 00:15:09,940
+auditing consultation
+
+195
+00:15:09,940 --> 00:15:16,660
+إيش معناها استشارات يخدموهم استشارات okay و في نفس
+
+196
+00:15:16,660 --> 00:15:21,660
+الوقت إيش يقدمولهم auditing رقابة طب بنفع إيش
+
+197
+00:15:21,660 --> 00:15:25,590
+رأيكم؟يعني بينفع انه انا اعطيك استشارات و في نفس
+
+198
+00:15:25,590 --> 00:15:30,670
+الوقت انه انا اعمل رقابة عليك؟ اذا كان في خطأ
+
+199
+00:15:30,670 --> 00:15:35,110
+بيكون خطأ من وين؟ من ال consultation بالظبط فإذا
+
+200
+00:15:35,110 --> 00:15:37,810
+كان في خطأ فإيش تسوي الشركة Anderson؟ Anderson
+
+201
+00:15:37,810 --> 00:15:43,610
+تروح تغطي على الأخطاء صارت الأخطاء تكبر تكبر لما
+
+202
+00:15:43,610 --> 00:15:46,890
+صار فيه فياليار كبير فلما أذيت ال corporate
+
+203
+00:15:46,890 --> 00:15:55,760
+governance حكتهم لأ لازم يكون في separationفصل بين
+
+204
+00:15:55,760 --> 00:16:00,500
+ال auditing services وبين ال consultation services
+
+205
+00:16:00,500 --> 00:16:05,040
+يعني
+
+206
+00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:09,180
+الشركة اللي بتعمل auditing هي شركة غير اللي بتعمل
+
+207
+00:16:09,180 --> 00:16:14,000
+consultation وصنوا قانون هذا القانون كتير مهم
+
+208
+00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,080
+القانون
+
+209
+00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:22,360
+المهم اللي عملوه اللي هو Sarpenes-Oxley Act
+
+210
+00:16:25,430 --> 00:16:29,910
+Sarbanes Oxley Act اللي هي بيحكي ان it should be
+
+211
+00:16:29,910 --> 00:16:36,190
+separated between the consultancy services and the
+
+212
+00:16:36,190 --> 00:16:40,330
+auditing services يعني الخدمات بتاعة التدقيق لازم
+
+213
+00:16:40,330 --> 00:16:43,490
+تنفصل عن خدمات الاستشارات المالية و الفنية و
+
+214
+00:16:43,490 --> 00:16:46,950
+الإدارية لأنه مابنفع انه انا في نفس اللحظة اقدم
+
+215
+00:16:46,950 --> 00:16:49,290
+خدمات استشارية و في نفس اللحظة اعمل رقابة على
+
+216
+00:16:49,290 --> 00:16:55,120
+الشركة بيصير ايش publications بظبطشطبعا هدول كانوا
+
+217
+00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,200
+هم ال .. ال Arthur Anderson هم المسؤولين عن
+
+218
+00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:00,540
+المشكلة هذه بتتعاون مع مين؟ بتتعاون مع التدقيق
+
+219
+00:17:00,540 --> 00:17:03,260
+الداخل في الشركة و صاروا يتلعبوا في الحسابات و
+
+220
+00:17:03,260 --> 00:17:08,320
+يظهروها حسابات جيدة لما بدأت تصير خسائر في هذه
+
+221
+00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:12,720
+الشركة okay؟ الكويس أنه كتير تقرأوا عن هذا ال ..
+
+222
+00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:17,140
+تجربة .. تجربة Enron و .. و .. و السبب أنه صار في
+
+223
+00:17:17,140 --> 00:17:21,680
+stress on the corporate governance طبعا؟ في حد
+
+224
+00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:22,280
+عنده سؤال؟
+
+225
+00:17:25,450 --> 00:17:28,450
+واضح corporate governance معروف ايش معناها
+
+226
+00:17:28,450 --> 00:17:33,190
+corporate ethics corporate ethics اللي هو أخلاقية
+
+227
+00:17:33,190 --> 00:17:42,630
+المهنة اللي هو كيف تطبق أخلاقية المهنة مين
+
+228
+00:17:42,630 --> 00:17:45,350
+يعطيلي أنثى على تطبيق أخلاقية المهنة for instance
+
+229
+00:17:45,350 --> 00:17:46,530
+corporate ethics
+
+230
+00:17:54,990 --> 00:17:59,870
+transparency .. transparency okay ethics يعني مثلا
+
+231
+00:17:59,870 --> 00:18:08,130
+لو شركة من الشركات كان عندي انا ال .. ال executive
+
+232
+00:18:08,130 --> 00:18:12,510
+.. ال executives هتقبل .. انا مابديش واحد منهم ال
+
+233
+00:18:12,510 --> 00:18:19,830
+executiveو .. و في executive A is .. is highly
+
+234
+00:18:19,830 --> 00:18:25,270
+activated و executive B ماعندوش نشاط فمن ناحية
+
+235
+00:18:25,270 --> 00:18:30,550
+ethics أنه هذا is promoted and this .. the .. the
+
+236
+00:18:30,550 --> 00:18:35,450
+company may asking this to improve his skillsيعني
+
+237
+00:18:35,450 --> 00:18:38,150
+من الطبيعي أن أكون في عندي .. لو عندي مديرين في
+
+238
+00:18:38,150 --> 00:18:41,470
+الشركة، مدير بيشتغل منيح و مدير بيشتغلش منيح، فمن
+
+239
+00:18:41,470 --> 00:18:45,850
+الغلط أنه أنا أشجع المدير اللي .. اللي ما بيشتغل،
+
+240
+00:18:45,850 --> 00:18:49,090
+فلازم يكون في عندي وضوح، لازم يكون عندي ethics،
+
+241
+00:18:49,090 --> 00:18:52,790
+علاقات ال ethics في الشركة، أخلاقيات المهنة بتتطلب
+
+242
+00:18:52,790 --> 00:18:58,880
+أنه أنا أكون fair مع ال executivesكمان من أخلاقية
+
+243
+00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,380
+المهنة if they .. the executives doing well إذا
+
+244
+00:19:02,380 --> 00:19:05,620
+كانوا عملوا شغلات للمنشأة منيحة و قد تالي I should
+
+245
+00:19:05,620 --> 00:19:09,260
+compensate them لازم أنا إيش؟ أعملهم compensation
+
+246
+00:19:09,260 --> 00:19:11,980
+كيف ال compensation؟ ال compensation ممكن using
+
+247
+00:19:11,980 --> 00:19:16,400
+the option rights option rights معناها أنه أنا
+
+248
+00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:21,180
+أخليهم يلهم حقوق لشراء السهم في الشركة أكيد
+
+249
+00:19:21,180 --> 00:19:26,520
+قرأتوها بال .. بالكتاب اللي اسمها option rights
+
+250
+00:19:28,120 --> 00:19:33,440
+option rights option rights تعني لو كان سعر مثلا
+
+251
+00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,900
+بالتل، عارفين شركة بالتل؟ شركة الاتصالات، لو كان
+
+252
+00:19:37,900 --> 00:19:44,740
+سعرها مثلاOkay ستة و نص دولار و كان عندي مدير حقق
+
+253
+00:19:44,740 --> 00:19:49,700
+نتائج غير طبيعية لأنه ناشط و بيشتغلوا منيح و كذا
+
+254
+00:19:49,700 --> 00:19:52,960
+فكويس من ال ethics انه انا ايش اعمله compensation
+
+255
+00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,980
+يعني اشجعه فبنشجعه عن طريق شغل اسمه option rights
+
+256
+00:19:56,980 --> 00:20:01,550
+ال option rights بعدين بحكي للمدير okayال price
+
+257
+00:20:01,550 --> 00:20:08,950
+now is 6.5 احنا هنعطيك right is option right to
+
+258
+00:20:08,950 --> 00:20:14,190
+buy this stock at two dollar نعطيك حق تشتري هذا
+
+259
+00:20:14,190 --> 00:20:18,430
+السهم ب two dollar كويس يعني هو اصلا لو بدوش يدفع
+
+260
+00:20:18,430 --> 00:20:24,330
+two dollar هيكون ربحان كام four and half أربعة و
+
+261
+00:20:24,330 --> 00:20:31,610
+نصso he has a right to sell his option عارفين كلام
+
+262
+00:20:31,610 --> 00:20:34,990
+هذا بال finance؟ he has a right to sell his option
+
+263
+00:20:34,990 --> 00:20:38,070
+يعني مثلا لو إجت الجامعة الإسلامية حكتله حكت
+
+264
+00:20:38,070 --> 00:20:43,110
+المدرسين معكم حق تشتريوا هذا ال laptop حق تشتريوا
+
+265
+00:20:43,110 --> 00:20:49,400
+ال laptop هذا ب 100 دولار كام؟ 100 دولارحقوا 500
+
+266
+00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:53,480
+دولار طيب في ناس انا عندي laptop I don't need this
+
+267
+00:20:53,480 --> 00:21:00,120
+فاش بسوي I use my right to sell the laptop يعني
+
+268
+00:21:00,120 --> 00:21:02,100
+انا بستخدم حقي في بيع ال laptop
+
+269
+00:21:05,180 --> 00:21:08,900
+أحد أي أحد في السوق موجود موجودين option rights
+
+270
+00:21:08,900 --> 00:21:11,940
+موجودة في السوق المالي فببيع ال laptop سعره في ال
+
+271
+00:21:11,940 --> 00:21:15,240
+market خمس مائة دولار أنا معايا option rights بمية
+
+272
+00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:19,680
+دولار أشتريه فأنا باخد الفرق بينهم اللي هو four
+
+273
+00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,060
+hundred dollar أو الحل الآخر بدفع المية دولار و
+
+274
+00:21:23,060 --> 00:21:25,540
+باخد السهم أو الخمس مائة دولار أو ال laptop أو
+
+275
+00:21:25,540 --> 00:21:30,330
+الخمس مائة دولار هى بيسموها إيش option rightsطبعا
+
+276
+00:21:30,330 --> 00:21:33,890
+عدم تطبيق هذه الأمور و عدم تطبيق ال corporate
+
+277
+00:21:33,890 --> 00:21:38,090
+governance عملت كتير scandals شايفين هذه scandals
+
+278
+00:21:38,090 --> 00:21:41,710
+examples of scandals من ال .. اللي بيسموها الفضائح
+
+279
+00:21:41,710 --> 00:21:47,190
+الإدارية و الفضائح المحاسبيةيعني مش بس إنا إحنا
+
+280
+00:21:47,190 --> 00:21:49,950
+موجودة كمان في أوروبا و في أمريكا صار عندهم فضائح
+
+281
+00:21:49,950 --> 00:21:56,770
+كبيرة و كلفت الشركات مبالغ ضخمة حتى ي .. يعالجوا
+
+282
+00:21:56,770 --> 00:22:01,630
+هاي المواضيع و بالأخير انه صار في tightness in the
+
+283
+00:22:01,630 --> 00:22:06,730
+applying the corporate governance صار في تشدد في
+
+284
+00:22:06,730 --> 00:22:09,130
+تطبيق ال corporate governance و في تطبيق ال ethics
+
+285
+00:22:09,130 --> 00:22:12,470
+في تطبيق إيش ال ethics سنعطيكم مثال على ال ethics
+
+286
+00:22:13,970 --> 00:22:17,510
+في ال ethics مثلا اللي تتطبق في الشركات لو احنا
+
+287
+00:22:17,510 --> 00:22:20,650
+عندنا two managers هذه صارت جديدة في أوروبا يعني
+
+288
+00:22:20,650 --> 00:22:24,430
+2011 2012 لو عندنا two managers جايين بدهم يتقدموا
+
+289
+00:22:24,430 --> 00:22:28,030
+للشركة ب .. ب .. بأعمال واحد is from the middle
+
+290
+00:22:28,030 --> 00:22:32,510
+east and one is Americanواحد من الشرق الأوسط و
+
+291
+00:22:32,510 --> 00:22:35,890
+واحد من أمريكا فهم إيش هيفضله؟ هيفضله من بتاع
+
+292
+00:22:35,890 --> 00:22:39,210
+الولايات .. ال united states ف according to the
+
+293
+00:22:39,210 --> 00:22:43,770
+ethical codes احفظوها ethical codes ethical code
+
+294
+00:22:43,770 --> 00:22:48,090
+ethical
+
+295
+00:22:48,090 --> 00:22:53,070
+code ال ethical code هي ال .. ال .. ال .. المفاهيم
+
+296
+00:22:53,070 --> 00:22:57,110
+الأخلاقية في الشركاتit suppose there is no
+
+297
+00:22:57,110 --> 00:23:00,090
+differentiation between people from the united
+
+298
+00:23:00,090 --> 00:23:03,170
+states and people from the middle east مافيش
+
+299
+00:23:03,170 --> 00:23:07,970
+تفارقة okay it depends on their quality or in
+
+300
+00:23:07,970 --> 00:23:10,490
+their qualifications طيب نشوف عندنا مثلا في
+
+301
+00:23:10,490 --> 00:23:16,090
+الشركات لو كان تقدم رجل او ولاده او بنت to the
+
+302
+00:23:16,090 --> 00:23:18,830
+same function and both of them both of them have
+
+303
+00:23:18,830 --> 00:23:22,170
+the same qualifications which they prefer ladies
+
+304
+00:23:22,170 --> 00:23:29,100
+or menswe don't know so if they prefer mens over
+
+305
+00:23:29,100 --> 00:23:33,940
+ladies it means this is unethical behavior هذا إشي
+
+306
+00:23:33,940 --> 00:23:38,080
+غير أخلاقي okay another example if some people
+
+307
+00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,480
+living in a particular place and other people they
+
+308
+00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,980
+live in another place and the big manager is
+
+309
+00:23:44,980 --> 00:23:50,000
+living nearby one of them so he or she do prefer
+
+310
+00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:54,320
+another one this is against to the ethicsSo this
+
+311
+00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,340
+is ethical codes, this is why in some regulations
+
+312
+00:23:57,340 --> 00:24:00,900
+when you applying your forms they don't need you
+
+313
+00:24:00,900 --> 00:24:04,340
+to write down specific details about your .. your
+
+314
+00:24:04,340 --> 00:24:07,460
+.. your life or about your personal things يعني في
+
+315
+00:24:07,460 --> 00:24:11,640
+بعض الحالات الممكن مايطلبوش تكتب تب اسمكتكتب اسمك
+
+316
+00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,800
+بالطلب لكن لما تروح لللجنة اللى بدها تقابلك انه
+
+317
+00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:20,560
+بيعطوا رقم للطلب ال ethnicity عارفين شو معنى ال
+
+318
+00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:24,020
+ethnicity اللى العقية تبعتك your language و ال
+
+319
+00:24:24,020 --> 00:24:28,100
+religious they disappear this كلها بيخفوها و
+
+320
+00:24:28,100 --> 00:24:33,420
+بظهروا بس ال qualifications okay بعد ما يعملوا
+
+321
+00:24:33,420 --> 00:24:35,440
+filtering بتروح على ال interview و ال interview
+
+322
+00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,640
+they just concern of your qualifications if we
+
+323
+00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,610
+don't apply qualificationsit means we are breaking
+
+324
+00:24:42,610 --> 00:24:50,610
+or invading the ethical codes احنا بنعمل يعني خرق
+
+325
+00:24:50,610 --> 00:24:58,170
+وكسر لأخلاقية المهنة okay ف .. هذا السبب اللي ..
+
+326
+00:24:58,170 --> 00:25:03,010
+حتى اخر .. اخر .. اخر قضية صارت في فرنسا في هذا
+
+327
+00:25:03,010 --> 00:25:09,170
+الموضوع ان في بعض الفتيات تقدمنا ل .. للمحاكمةإن
+
+328
+00:25:09,170 --> 00:25:12,950
+هم أقل حظا من فتيات أخريات بتقدموا لل .. بيسموها
+
+329
+00:25:12,950 --> 00:25:16,570
+دي ال .. ال guesting services on the flights اللي
+
+330
+00:25:16,570 --> 00:25:20,630
+خدمات الضيافة في ال .. فهم بفضلوا فتيات عن أخريات
+
+331
+00:25:20,630 --> 00:25:29,950
+مضيفات فواحدة فرنسية قدمت للمحكمة الفرنسية انه why
+
+332
+00:25:29,950 --> 00:25:34,110
+you do prefer themإذا انتوا بتطلبوا الطول بدرجة
+
+333
+00:25:34,110 --> 00:25:36,670
+معينة إذا بتطلبوا الوزن بدرجة معينة إذا بتطلبوا
+
+334
+00:25:36,670 --> 00:25:39,430
+كذا كذا كذا and these qualifications and I have
+
+335
+00:25:39,430 --> 00:25:44,920
+these qualifications so why you don't select meحتى
+
+336
+00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,640
+even the .. the differentiation between ladies
+
+337
+00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,520
+themselves يعني التفريق حتى بين .. بين البنات
+
+338
+00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:55,280
+نفسهم فهذا بيسموه breaking the ethics ممكن كمان في
+
+339
+00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:59,120
+.. في .. بين الرجال نفسهم ممكن يكون انه اتنين رجال
+
+340
+00:25:59,120 --> 00:26:01,720
+تقدموا لمهنة واحد بيسكن في مكان و اخر بيسكن في
+
+341
+00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:07,070
+مكان اخرand they break the .. the thing is is to
+
+342
+00:26:07,070 --> 00:26:10,970
+applying the .. the ethical behavior or ethical
+
+343
+00:26:10,970 --> 00:26:14,330
+concentration why؟ اذا احنا طبقنا ال ethical
+
+344
+00:26:14,330 --> 00:26:17,650
+concentration على ال executives وعلى ال non
+
+345
+00:26:17,650 --> 00:26:21,370
+-executive حتى ال employees we should .. we .. we
+
+346
+00:26:21,370 --> 00:26:26,090
+keep the highly qualified people اذا .. اذا احنا
+
+347
+00:26:26,090 --> 00:26:28,610
+متطبق الكلام هذا نحتفظ في ال highly qualified
+
+348
+00:26:28,610 --> 00:26:32,460
+peopleإذا احنا we don't concern about your color,
+
+349
+00:26:33,580 --> 00:26:37,460
+okay you are male or female, your ethnicity, your
+
+350
+00:26:37,460 --> 00:26:40,040
+religious, other things, we don't care about this
+
+351
+00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:45,320
+and we do focus on your qualifications so we keep
+
+352
+00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,620
+the highly qualified people in our company، this
+
+353
+00:26:48,620 --> 00:26:50,800
+is what Americans, this is what the British, what
+
+354
+00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,640
+the Europeans argues
+
+355
+00:26:55,980 --> 00:26:58,580
+this is what I'm saying but I don't want to talk
+
+356
+00:26:58,580 --> 00:27:01,620
+about these things because we are online so they
+
+357
+00:27:01,620 --> 00:27:05,560
+think .. yes and they هو أصلا الفرنسية كانت she's
+
+358
+00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:11,820
+.. كانت .. كانت يعني سودا و لما تخدمت للوظيفة هم
+
+359
+00:27:11,820 --> 00:27:16,900
+they lay down her file lay down يعني راحوا
+
+360
+00:27:16,900 --> 00:27:24,230
+استبعدوا طلبهاI'm against this okay فحسب ال
+
+361
+00:27:24,230 --> 00:27:27,650
+ethical code حسب ال ethical code it doesn't matter
+
+362
+00:27:27,650 --> 00:27:29,990
+what is your color the matter things is your
+
+363
+00:27:29,990 --> 00:27:34,010
+qualifications بغض
+
+364
+00:27:34,010 --> 00:27:38,990
+النظر شو لونك شو لغتك شو شكلك الهدف الرئيسي إذا
+
+365
+00:27:38,990 --> 00:27:46,700
+احنا بدنا نعمل نعمل تقدم في الشركاتسلام؟ just for
+
+366
+00:27:46,700 --> 00:27:49,840
+qualifications if we fail to locate the qualified
+
+367
+00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:55,840
+people in their places it means it is the good
+
+368
+00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:59,760
+place to grow the corruption يعني هذا المكان
+
+369
+00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:05,220
+المناسب حتى الفساد ينمو okay so this is the things
+
+370
+00:28:05,220 --> 00:28:10,600
+okay هذا صعب كتير ربكم مش بسيط حتى على الأوروبيين
+
+371
+00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,780
+و على الأمريكان و على كل العالم الاشي مش بسيط مش
+
+372
+00:28:12,780 --> 00:28:20,010
+بس انا okayو يعني أبحاث كتير أثبتت أنه في ناس كتير
+
+373
+00:28:20,010 --> 00:28:23,590
+بيعملوا لل qualifications واحد من الأبحاث شاركت
+
+374
+00:28:23,590 --> 00:28:28,930
+أنا و professora في جامعة Manchester هذا البحث كان
+
+375
+00:28:28,930 --> 00:28:33,770
+بيحكي عن ال environment violation مرتبط في ال
+
+376
+00:28:33,770 --> 00:28:38,430
+corporate governance اللي .. اللي هو خرق ال ..
+
+377
+00:28:38,430 --> 00:28:41,050
+اللهم صلى الله عليه و سلم يا محمد .. خرق ال .. ال
+
+378
+00:28:41,050 --> 00:28:46,920
+.. الأخلاقيات المهنةواحد مصري مسلم كان يصلي في ال
+
+379
+00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:54,380
+.. أثناء العمل تمام؟ كان يصلي أثناء العمل فصارت
+
+380
+00:28:54,380 --> 00:28:57,200
+معاه مشكلة because أن هو مسلم they kicked him out
+
+381
+00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:02,580
+طردوه من العمل وبالتالي هذا ..نفس ال .. نفس ال ..
+
+382
+00:29:02,580 --> 00:29:06,040
+المشكلة بتصير انه في smoking area شوفوا ال .. طبعا
+
+383
+00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,920
+هو بنى القضية تبعته على ال justification حكالهم ان
+
+384
+00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,280
+smoking area people spending most of their time in
+
+385
+00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,760
+the smoking place يعني ممنوع التدخين داخل ال ..
+
+386
+00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:22,080
+داخل المكتب فبروحوا بيدخلوا خارج المكتب and they
+
+387
+00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,580
+spend from five to ten minutes I'm spending only
+
+388
+00:29:25,580 --> 00:29:29,440
+five minutes prayingإذا كنتوا تعقبوا عقبوا الناس
+
+389
+00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:33,640
+اللي بتدخن برا الشركة، بدخنوا، they smoking، ليش
+
+390
+00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:38,800
+أنتوا تعقبوني؟ فالقاضي حكم .. حكم معاه وكانت هذه
+
+391
+00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:42,940
+under the ethical considerations يعني صحيح مش
+
+392
+00:29:42,940 --> 00:29:46,540
+معايير للشركة أنه تحكي أنه ممنوع الصلاة، لأ
+
+393
+00:29:46,540 --> 00:29:49,300
+المعايير كانت تالية أنه طالما أنه في ناس بتدخن and
+
+394
+00:29:49,300 --> 00:29:51,780
+they spending five to ten minutes out of the
+
+395
+00:29:51,780 --> 00:29:57,960
+building, so this guyhe's doing his praying his
+
+396
+00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:01,780
+favorite things لأن هم ممكن بيعترفوش مثلا أنه هذا
+
+397
+00:30:01,780 --> 00:30:05,680
+دين خلاص his favorite things بيعمل شغلة اللي اللي
+
+398
+00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,500
+بيفضلها and they do this وبالتالي خسرت الشركة مبلغ
+
+399
+00:30:09,500 --> 00:30:15,180
+مش قليل حتى أنه يعوضوه
+
+400
+00:30:15,180 --> 00:30:18,700
+يعوضوه لأنه فعلا هي كانت breaking the ال ethical
+
+401
+00:30:18,700 --> 00:30:21,830
+considerationsفلما احنا نطبق ال ethical
+
+402
+00:30:21,830 --> 00:30:24,510
+consideration هيكون فيه تحسين في أداء الشركات،
+
+403
+00:30:24,510 --> 00:30:29,130
+هيكون في عند corporate governance واضحة ال ethics؟
+
+404
+00:30:29,130 --> 00:30:31,510
+في عندكم أمثلة ممكن موجودة عندكم بال ethical
+
+405
+00:30:31,510 --> 00:30:38,390
+considerations؟ أمثلة بحياتكم، بالشركات، ممكن ..
+
+406
+00:30:38,390 --> 00:30:40,370
+طبعا لسه انتوا ما طلعتوش على بيئة العمل، بكرا
+
+407
+00:30:40,370 --> 00:30:43,950
+هتشوفوا بيئة العمل، هتشوفوا تفريق بال ethics،
+
+408
+00:30:43,950 --> 00:30:46,410
+هتشوفوا ان هذا this is ethics and this is non
+
+409
+00:30:46,410 --> 00:30:46,770
+ethics
+
+410
+00:31:01,390 --> 00:31:09,030
+Okay هذا against ethics هذا ضد ال .. ضد الأخلاق او
+
+411
+00:31:09,030 --> 00:31:13,950
+ممكن مثلا يكون يعني انسان
+
+412
+00:31:13,950 --> 00:31:20,790
+يكون بيعمل ب .. بجدية للشركة executives بيشتغل ..
+
+413
+00:31:20,790 --> 00:31:24,610
+he's working hard و لما يصير ال compensation يعمل
+
+414
+00:31:24,610 --> 00:31:28,660
+تعويض لشخص اخر مش ..مش sure المفروض أنه احنا بنعمل
+
+415
+00:31:28,660 --> 00:31:30,420
+evaluation لل people according to their
+
+416
+00:31:30,420 --> 00:31:34,080
+performance فنروح ممكن الشخص اللي ما بينتج نروح
+
+417
+00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:41,680
+نعطيه مكافئة و الشخص اللي بينتج ما نهمله okay طبعا
+
+418
+00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:48,040
+هذا بيكون breaking the ethical okay سمام
+
+419
+00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:54,280
+investment processإذا خلصنا احنا ال .. ال .. ال
+
+420
+00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:57,500
+relationship between the financial markets and the
+
+421
+00:31:57,500 --> 00:32:01,560
+economicsخلصنا العلاقة بين السوق المالي وبين ال
+
+422
+00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:07,900
+economics و الاقتصاد خلينا بس نذكركم فيهم هيك ع
+
+423
+00:32:07,900 --> 00:32:15,700
+السريع و زي ما ترجم اشي ترجم دور المعلومات
+
+424
+00:32:15,700 --> 00:32:18,840
+information rule كل ما كانت المعلومات available
+
+425
+00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,920
+للناس بيستطيعوا انهم يعملوا evaluation to the
+
+426
+00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,160
+business فال business اللي عنده شركات اللي عندها
+
+427
+00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,780
+good future prospectsthey have .. they have
+
+428
+00:32:28,780 --> 00:32:31,300
+opportunity to .. to compete in the markets يعني
+
+429
+00:32:31,300 --> 00:32:34,640
+اللي عندهم إمكانيات كبيرة ومعلومات واضحة ومستقبل
+
+430
+00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,000
+واضح هيكون عندهم إمكانية ينافسوا في السوق التاني
+
+431
+00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,340
+ال consumption timing ال consumption timing الناس
+
+432
+00:32:41,340 --> 00:32:46,120
+بت .. ببداية حياته بيكون ال .. ال earning أعلى من
+
+433
+00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:50,380
+ال consumption بيكون الدخل أعلى من الاستهلاك طيب
+
+434
+00:32:50,380 --> 00:32:54,000
+في المراحل المتأخرة بحياتهم بيصير العكس بيصير ال
+
+435
+00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:58,450
+consumption أعلى و ال earning أقلOkay لأن هو in
+
+436
+00:32:58,450 --> 00:33:03,150
+his or her late ages طب شو الحل؟ الحل أنه احنا لما
+
+437
+00:33:03,150 --> 00:33:07,750
+نكون عندنا ال .. ال .. ال .. the higher return so
+
+438
+00:33:07,750 --> 00:33:11,190
+we .. we have or we should invest for the lower
+
+439
+00:33:11,190 --> 00:33:14,990
+return يعني احنا بنستثمر ال higher return today
+
+440
+00:33:14,990 --> 00:33:19,810
+because our return in the future will be low هيكون
+
+441
+00:33:19,810 --> 00:33:25,200
+منخفض so the investment is importantallocation of
+
+442
+00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,820
+risk allocation of risk هو توزيع المخاطر
+
+443
+00:33:27,820 --> 00:33:31,220
+separation
+
+444
+00:33:31,220 --> 00:33:35,220
+of ownership and management هو الفصل بين الملاك
+
+445
+00:33:35,220 --> 00:33:40,920
+وبين الإدارة وكمان مش بس الفصل انه كل واحد يعرف
+
+446
+00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:45,080
+what is the task ال ال ال board of directors
+
+447
+00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:49,880
+setting the strategies okay and the executives
+
+448
+00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:53,400
+executives are translating the strategies into
+
+449
+00:33:53,400 --> 00:34:01,220
+actionsOkay بيحولوها ل .. يعني ل .. لأعمال لأفعال
+
+450
+00:34:01,220 --> 00:34:06,320
+okay corporate governance اللي هو الحوكمة and the
+
+451
+00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,080
+ethics اللي هو الأخلاقيات and I gave you examples
+
+452
+00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,760
+about the corporate governance and about the
+
+453
+00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:12,240
+ethics
+
+454
+00:34:15,150 --> 00:34:19,430
+Okay و هاي أمثلة على شركات صار فيها فضائح why?
+
+455
+00:34:19,810 --> 00:34:23,070
+because they don't apply corporate governance and
+
+456
+00:34:23,070 --> 00:34:26,930
+they don't apply the corporate ethics ماحققوش ال
+
+457
+00:34:26,930 --> 00:34:31,990
+corporate governance و ماحققوش ال ethics okay طبعا
+
+458
+00:34:31,990 --> 00:34:38,650
+واضح يا ..ش اسمك؟ ميه .. is it clear؟ انترجم okay
+
+459
+00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:46,480
+the investment process ال investment process it
+
+460
+00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:50,920
+consider the steps of doing investments يعني
+
+461
+00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:54,500
+الخطوات اللي احنا لازم نعملها حتى نعمل استثمار
+
+462
+00:34:54,500 --> 00:35:00,400
+خطوات عملية يعني لما نحكي عن ال asset ال
+
+463
+00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:05,820
+investment process هذه it's asking what are the
+
+464
+00:35:05,820 --> 00:35:10,980
+stepsOkay to do the business or to do the
+
+465
+00:35:10,980 --> 00:35:16,360
+investments one of the first step is asset
+
+466
+00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:20,120
+allocation asset allocation what it means asset
+
+467
+00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:26,860
+allocation اه توزيع الأصول او تخصيص الأصول زي ما
+
+468
+00:35:26,860 --> 00:35:32,460
+انتوا بتحكوا طيب how we can do this في أحد بعرف
+
+469
+00:35:32,460 --> 00:35:36,540
+how we can do this asset allocation أول خطوة احنا
+
+470
+00:35:36,540 --> 00:35:42,950
+بنقررهاوين نستفر asset allocation it means where
+
+471
+00:35:42,950 --> 00:35:47,850
+to invest أين سوف نستفر okay for instance we have
+
+472
+00:35:47,850 --> 00:35:54,410
+stocks we have bonds we have currencies we have
+
+473
+00:35:54,410 --> 00:35:59,030
+commodities we
+
+474
+00:35:59,030 --> 00:36:02,810
+have real estates etc
+
+475
+00:36:04,940 --> 00:36:08,760
+يعني عندنا أسهم، في عندنا سندات، في عندنا عملات،
+
+476
+00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:12,920
+في عندنا commodities اللي هم .. لأ commodities
+
+477
+00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:17,480
+معناها ال .. ال .. ال .. السلعب زي الحديد، انحاس،
+
+478
+00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:23,380
+الدهب، الفضة okay؟ real estate اللي هو العقارات
+
+479
+00:36:23,380 --> 00:36:29,160
+it's a try الأخرى، now the first decision you have
+
+480
+00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:34,590
+to takeis where to invest asset allocation to
+
+481
+00:36:34,590 --> 00:36:38,590
+invest in stock in bonds in currencies real estate
+
+482
+00:36:38,590 --> 00:36:44,590
+commodities etc وين احنا بنستثمر فبنحط هدول ال
+
+483
+00:36:44,590 --> 00:36:47,510
+families هدول families of the of the investments
+
+484
+00:36:47,510 --> 00:36:50,510
+بنشوف هدول ال families و بنشوف مقرر احنا بنعمل
+
+485
+00:36:50,510 --> 00:36:53,430
+investment في ال stock ولا نعمل investment في ال
+
+486
+00:36:53,430 --> 00:37:00,240
+bonds ولا وينOkay let's say we .. we agree to do
+
+487
+00:37:00,240 --> 00:37:04,260
+investments in stocks so this is the first action
+
+488
+00:37:04,260 --> 00:37:08,700
+أول شغلة بنسويها أنه احنا بنشوف عندنا الله أنا
+
+489
+00:37:08,700 --> 00:37:14,600
+بشوف بفهم بال bonds ممكن بفهم بفهمش بال currencies
+
+490
+00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:16,880
+عندك خبرة بال currencies عندك خبرة بال commodities
+
+491
+00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,400
+بال real estate فالناس اللي مثلا عندك خبرة بال
+
+492
+00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:24,970
+stocks بروح على ال stocks هذه أول خطوة عملناهاOkay
+
+493
+00:37:24,970 --> 00:37:31,130
+then so choice among broad asset classes هدول
+
+494
+00:37:31,130 --> 00:37:33,810
+بيسموهم asset classes لإنه عندنا bonds,
+
+495
+00:37:34,810 --> 00:37:41,750
+currencies, commodities and etc The second step is
+
+496
+00:37:41,750 --> 00:37:49,200
+security selectionin each class there is a broad
+
+497
+00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,960
+investment tools يعني خلينا نيجي نحكي احنا حكينا
+
+498
+00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,560
+عن ال stocks بدنا نستثمر بال stocks، مظبوط؟ طيب،
+
+499
+00:37:56,560 --> 00:38:03,120
+اذا هدول مابلزمونا صح؟ stocks the second question
+
+500
+00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:11,020
+you ask yourself which stock؟ أي سهمOkay احنا
+
+501
+00:38:11,020 --> 00:38:13,660
+بنستثمر في ال .. في ال stocks بس أي شركة بنشتري
+
+502
+00:38:13,660 --> 00:38:17,520
+يعني if you look at the PSE you know what it means
+
+503
+00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:22,000
+PSE Palestine Stock Exchange if we look at the PSE
+
+504
+00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:26,460
+سوق المال الفلسطيني we have many companies the
+
+505
+00:38:26,460 --> 00:38:30,580
+question is which company you want to invest اي
+
+506
+00:38:30,580 --> 00:38:35,100
+شركة انت بدك تستثمر Paltel, Badeco, AIB, Bob which
+
+507
+00:38:35,100 --> 00:38:40,330
+company and whyإذا إحنا بدنا نقرر في الخطوة
+
+508
+00:38:40,330 --> 00:38:44,710
+التانية which is security selection which company
+
+509
+00:38:44,710 --> 00:38:50,230
+you want to invest in the family of stocks or in
+
+510
+00:38:50,230 --> 00:38:54,590
+the class of stocks أي واحدة ممكن تقولوا بالتم you
+
+511
+00:38:54,590 --> 00:39:05,530
+want بالتم you want بوب sorry بوب you want aib you
+
+512
+00:39:05,530 --> 00:39:10,480
+want badicowhat you want so I recommend you to
+
+513
+00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:16,820
+take a look at the psa.com and see the stocks
+
+514
+00:39:16,820 --> 00:39:27,060
+افتحوا ال website و اكتب www.b-s-e.bs then see the
+
+515
+00:39:27,060 --> 00:39:29,920
+companies listed in the financial markets or
+
+516
+00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:35,690
+palestinian financial marketsOkay, so we go to
+
+517
+00:39:35,690 --> 00:39:42,170
+بالتل استثمرنا في بالتل why? because maybe the
+
+518
+00:39:42,170 --> 00:39:46,010
+بالتل is one of the company fits with my
+
+519
+00:39:46,010 --> 00:39:49,710
+characteristics لأن الشركة بالتل تناسب ال
+
+520
+00:39:49,710 --> 00:39:52,330
+characteristics تبعتي and we will discuss what it
+
+521
+00:39:52,330 --> 00:39:57,200
+means thisإذا خلصنا security selection choice of
+
+522
+00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,600
+which securities to hold within asset classes أي
+
+523
+00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:06,980
+واحدة بدها تكون في ال asset classes fine then يعني
+
+524
+00:40:06,980 --> 00:40:10,860
+ال security selection بتشمل عدة خطوات الخطوة
+
+525
+00:40:10,860 --> 00:40:14,400
+الأولى زي ما أنتوا شايفين استعرضنا الشركات في
+
+526
+00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:19,560
+السوق المالي شفناهم شفنا بالتل شفنا بديكو شفنا AIB
+
+527
+00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:28,840
+شفنا الBOB ل AIB okay وعملنا لهم analysis عملنا
+
+528
+00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:33,740
+لهم إيش تحليل تحليل كتير في financial analysis في
+
+529
+00:40:33,740 --> 00:40:36,740
+economic analysis في managerial analysis في
+
+530
+00:40:36,740 --> 00:40:41,520
+analysis كتير في technical analysis يعني عملنا
+
+531
+00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:46,280
+تحليلات لهذه الشركات هذه التحليلات بتساعدني أعمل
+
+532
+00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,540
+okay إذا بقلت اللي منيحة
+
+533
+00:40:55,060 --> 00:41:00,280
+بعد ما احنا نعمل التحليلات نعمل risk-return trade
+
+534
+00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:05,400
+-off risk and return trade-off نفهم what it means
+
+535
+00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:13,600
+احنا هان اخترنا palatal okay how we select palatal
+
+536
+00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:20,820
+شوفوا هان، هان عند ال risk و هان عند ال return هذا
+
+537
+00:41:20,820 --> 00:41:25,840
+ال risk المخاطر وهنا إيش العائدالعلاقة بين العائد
+
+538
+00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:29,560
+والمخاطر هي علاقة إيجابية ال risk بيزيد العائد
+
+539
+00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:34,580
+بيزيد okay so when the risk increase the return is
+
+540
+00:41:34,580 --> 00:41:39,480
+increase okay زي ما أنتوا شايفين there is a
+
+541
+00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:43,020
+positive relationship between the risk and return
+
+542
+00:41:43,020 --> 00:41:51,120
+طيب هلأ بنيجي كل ما احنا نطلع لفوق ال risk بيزيد و
+
+543
+00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:55,030
+ال return بيزيدمثلا اللي بيستثمروا في palatal هم
+
+544
+00:41:55,030 --> 00:41:59,990
+ناس نحكي neutral ماعندهم كتير risk و ماعندهم كتير
+
+545
+00:41:59,990 --> 00:42:08,690
+مخاطر palatal is located in this place so
+
+546
+00:42:08,690 --> 00:42:13,410
+palatal is reflecting a particular risk and a
+
+547
+00:42:13,410 --> 00:42:17,540
+particular returnfor a conservative people للناس
+
+548
+00:42:17,540 --> 00:42:20,540
+المحافظين الناس اللي مابدهمش يتحملوا مخاطر كتير و
+
+549
+00:42:20,540 --> 00:42:23,680
+في نفس اللحظة الناس مابدهمش يكون عندهم عائد مخفض
+
+550
+00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:30,120
+بقالت بتوزع dividends بتوزع أرباح okay مخاطرها
+
+551
+00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:35,900
+مخفضة و عائدها متوسط أو مخفض لو أجينا احنا أخدنا
+
+552
+00:42:35,900 --> 00:42:40,080
+شركة أخرى مثلالأنه احنا مثلا إذا بدك تحكي عن ال
+
+553
+00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:43,620
+bob okay bank of Palestine I don't know ممكن
+
+554
+00:42:43,620 --> 00:42:51,540
+according to you maybe bob according to you not
+
+555
+00:42:51,540 --> 00:42:55,660
+according to me bob maybe is higher risk and
+
+556
+00:42:55,660 --> 00:42:59,800
+higher return so people they may think this is
+
+557
+00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:03,980
+holding high risk so they may avoid the bob ممكن
+
+558
+00:43:03,980 --> 00:43:09,490
+يتجنبوا ال bobOkay زي ما انتوا عائد عليه بتتحملوا
+
+559
+00:43:09,490 --> 00:43:14,770
+مخاطر أعلى ال BOP stand for Bank of Palestine يعني
+
+560
+00:43:14,770 --> 00:43:22,530
+Bank فلسطين okay هذا هو trade-off between risk
+
+561
+00:43:22,530 --> 00:43:28,130
+and return نجح
+
+562
+00:43:28,130 --> 00:43:31,650
+عند هذا اللقاء
+
+563
+00:43:31,650 --> 00:43:34,390
+الجاي مطلوب منكم تقرأوا عن efficient markets
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/2sBv6juKWtc.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/2sBv6juKWtc.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d59a23349f79e69ed9bc05f8bedf2f40cc555cb1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/2sBv6juKWtc.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1603 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:24,670
+الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة
+
+2
+00:00:24,670 --> 00:00:27,090
+الأولى تكون نحكي عن ال relationship between
+
+3
+00:00:27,090 --> 00:00:31,150
+treasury bills and inflation rates اليوم هنحكي 
+
+4
+00:00:31,150 --> 00:00:35,750
+العلاقة بين ال risk and risk premiums علاقة ال
+
+5
+00:00:35,750 --> 00:00:38,490
+risk and risk premiums خليني نعرف أيش ال risk and
+
+6
+00:00:38,490 --> 00:00:41,950
+premiums ال risk عارفين من المخاطر ال risk
+
+7
+00:00:41,950 --> 00:00:48,690
+premiums هي علاوة المخاطر لو احنا ركزنا بال charts
+
+8
+00:00:50,620 --> 00:00:55,040
+بركزنا بال charts و
+
+9
+00:00:55,040 --> 00:01:00,440
+حكينا هن ال commercial paper okay و هن ال sorry هن
+
+10
+00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:06,700
+treasury bills هن commercial paper و هن stocks و
+
+11
+00:01:06,700 --> 00:01:12,160
+هن bonds و هن derivatives okay احنا بنعرف الكلام
+
+12
+00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:17,120
+هذا من الأول خليني أسأل سؤال بسيط which holding
+
+13
+00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:23,100
+more risk stocks or bonds مين بيحمل المخاطر أكثر؟
+
+14
+00:01:23,100 --> 00:01:26,480
+ال stocks ولا ال bonds؟ bonds طبعا هناخد risk هان
+
+15
+00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:30,800
+و هناخد ال expected return يعني هاي ال risk و هاي
+
+16
+00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:35,440
+ال return اذا ال stocks holding more risk than ال
+
+17
+00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:40,100
+bonds ال stocks بتحمل مخاطر أعلى من ال bonds،
+
+18
+00:01:40,100 --> 00:01:47,320
+مظبوط؟ طيب يعني لو احنا أخذناها ال bonds
+
+19
+00:01:56,540 --> 00:02:01,720
+الـ stocks زي
+
+20
+00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:08,200
+ما انتوا شايفين holding higher risk than bonds
+
+21
+00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:13,700
+okay look at this chart اذا هذا ال risk risk is
+
+22
+00:02:13,700 --> 00:02:17,480
+measured by sigma we will explain what it means
+
+23
+00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:23,660
+sigma ال risk مقاس ب sigma فإذا احنا اعتبرنا هذا
+
+24
+00:02:23,660 --> 00:02:26,340
+sigma zero اللي هو treasure built sigma zero يعني
+
+25
+00:02:26,340 --> 00:02:30,100
+ال .. ال .. ال system at risk عن sigma zero هذا
+
+26
+00:02:30,100 --> 00:02:34,640
+sigma one وهنا sigma two اللي هو sigma two اللي هو
+
+27
+00:02:34,640 --> 00:02:37,500
+sigma بتاعة ال stock و sigma one اللي هو sigma
+
+28
+00:02:37,500 --> 00:02:42,820
+بتاعة ال bond sigma bond طيب إيش بتلاحظوا ال sigma
+
+29
+00:02:42,820 --> 00:02:49,400
+of stocks is greater than sigma of bond look at the
+
+30
+00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:53,820
+expected rate of return of bonds expected rate R
+
+31
+00:02:53,820 --> 00:02:59,660
+of bonds and look at the R of stock which is
+
+32
+00:02:59,660 --> 00:03:04,240
+greater the return of stocks or the return of
+
+33
+00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:12,540
+bonds stocks is greater by this يعني هو أكبر ب
+
+34
+00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:21,120
+بهالفترة هذه because look at here because stocks
+
+35
+00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:25,120
+holding more risk they are holding higher return
+
+36
+00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:32,580
+the difference of stocks risk is compensated by
+
+37
+00:03:32,580 --> 00:03:35,920
+risk premium so because the investors holding more
+
+38
+00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:41,360
+risk are compensated by excess return or risk
+
+39
+00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,580
+premium فهذه الفترة تسميها excess premium او risk
+
+40
+00:03:45,580 --> 00:03:50,900
+premium risk premium or
+
+41
+00:03:50,900 --> 00:03:58,020
+return premium يعني سميها return premium وفي بعض
+
+42
+00:03:58,020 --> 00:04:05,260
+الكتب بيسموها excess return excess return يعني زي
+
+43
+00:04:05,260 --> 00:04:09,300
+ما احنا اتحملنا مخاطر أكثر في ال stocks هناخد عائد
+
+44
+00:04:09,300 --> 00:04:12,320
+أكثر، قداش قيمة العائد الزيادة هي هذه الفترة
+
+45
+00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:16,280
+الزمنية، شايفينها؟ just this هذا الفرق من ناتج
+
+46
+00:04:16,280 --> 00:04:20,280
+because we are holding higher risk we are taking
+
+47
+00:04:20,280 --> 00:04:27,680
+higher return okay طيب so first of all قبل ما احنا
+
+48
+00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:31,680
+to go in details about this خلينا ندخل في التفاصيل
+
+49
+00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:35,380
+خلينا ن estimate the expected rate of return of
+
+50
+00:04:35,380 --> 00:04:39,700
+stocks or of bonds و بعدين بنعمل estimation لل
+
+51
+00:04:39,700 --> 00:04:43,800
+sigma then we calculate the differences in the
+
+52
+00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,460
+risk premium لأنه
+
+53
+00:04:47,460 --> 00:04:50,800
+احنا هنتحملنا مخاطر أعلى فال return هيكون أعلى
+
+54
+00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:55,210
+فالخريطة تبعتنا من هان لكمان يوماني يعني ال meeting
+
+55
+00:04:55,210 --> 00:04:59,530
+هذا مع ال meeting الجاي هنحكي بال how we estimate
+
+56
+00:04:59,530 --> 00:05:04,490
+the return then how we estimate sigma كيف نحسب ال
+
+57
+00:05:04,490 --> 00:05:07,670
+return و كيف نحسب ال sigma ال sigma اللي هو ال ..
+
+58
+00:05:07,670 --> 00:05:10,750
+ال sigma استعملها ال deviation و ال .. و ال
+
+59
+00:05:10,750 --> 00:05:14,710
+variance هنحكي فيها okay أخدتوها بال .. بال
+
+60
+00:05:14,710 --> 00:05:19,640
+statistics okay rates of return اللي هو كيف نحسب ال
+
+61
+00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:23,700
+rate of return ال rate of return زي ما تشوفين بقى
+
+62
+00:05:23,700 --> 00:05:29,280
+b1 minus b0 plus d1 على b0 طبعا هذا ال rate of
+
+63
+00:05:29,280 --> 00:05:33,800
+return for the stock إذا بنحسب لأي stock بنقول اللي
+
+64
+00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:39,160
+هو B1 minus B node divided by B node plus D1 على B
+
+65
+00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:43,920
+node فإذا إحنا بنجمعهم مع بعض بتساوي B1 minus B
+
+66
+00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:51,160
+node على B node plus D1 إيش B1 مش B node أو D1؟ لو
+
+67
+00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:55,180
+إحنا أخدنا for instance stock one particular stock
+
+68
+00:05:55,180 --> 00:05:58,220
+for instance one particular stock
+
+69
+00:06:01,790 --> 00:06:08,130
+is we bought a stock of Baltim or a stock of BIC
+
+70
+00:06:08,130 --> 00:06:12,270
+شركة اسمها BIC موجودة في BIC موجودة في سوق فلسطين
+
+71
+00:06:12,270 --> 00:06:17,070
+الأوراق المالية ونفترض انه ال BIC 2.5 اشتريناها ع
+
+72
+00:06:17,070 --> 00:06:24,430
+2.5 so هذا ال buying price we bought the BIC at 2
+
+73
+00:06:24,430 --> 00:06:37,450
+.5 and we sold it at 4.75 وبيعناه على 4.75 4.75
+
+74
+00:06:37,450 --> 00:06:42,150
+during the holding period يعني خلال الفترة الزمنية
+
+75
+00:06:42,150 --> 00:06:45,730
+و احنا حاملين السهم we receive dividends we
+
+76
+00:06:45,730 --> 00:06:49,330
+receive dividends
+
+77
+00:06:49,330 --> 00:06:52,910
+dividends يعني توزيع الأرباح we receive dividends
+
+78
+00:06:52,910 --> 00:07:03,130
+at point twenty or point ten per share يعني استلام
+
+79
+00:07:03,130 --> 00:07:09,690
+لأرباح point عشرة cents لكل سنة calculate the
+
+80
+00:07:09,690 --> 00:07:14,750
+holding period return يعني قداش العائد خلال الفترة
+
+81
+00:07:14,750 --> 00:07:17,870
+الزمنية فالعائد خلال ال .. you just apply the
+
+82
+00:07:17,870 --> 00:07:23,910
+equation بس احنا هنطبق المعادلة B1 شوفوا ال B1 you
+
+83
+00:07:23,910 --> 00:07:27,510
+have to know B1, B note and dividends ال B1 هي ال
+
+84
+00:07:27,510 --> 00:07:35,460
+selling الـ B0 هي ال buying ال B1 ال selling و ال
+
+85
+00:07:35,460 --> 00:07:40,500
+dividends is the dividends اللي هو التوزيعات فبصف
+
+86
+00:07:40,500 --> 00:07:50,740
+الحل طبعا بيعناه على 2.75 2.75 فبصف الحل 2.75
+
+87
+00:07:50,740 --> 00:07:58,260
+minus 2.5 plus 0.10 divided 2.5
+
+88
+00:08:01,370 --> 00:08:09,070
+يعني B1 2.75 اللي احنا بيعناها على 2.75 اشتريناها
+
+89
+00:08:09,070 --> 00:08:16,130
+على 2.5 واخدنا dividends 0.10 و 2.5 اللي هو ال B
+
+90
+00:08:16,130 --> 00:08:23,170
+notes اللي هو ال buying فقدراش بتطلع الجواب عندكم؟
+
+91
+00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:41,060
+أربعة عشر في المائة so the answer is fourteen
+
+92
+00:08:41,060 --> 00:08:46,460
+percent طيب لسه محلل اصنعش the
+
+93
+00:08:46,460 --> 00:08:52,140
+return .. the return is divided or is break down
+
+94
+00:08:52,140 --> 00:08:58,940
+into two types of return أي عائد .. فنات تبهوا عني
+
+95
+00:08:58,940 --> 00:09:01,180
+عائد .. أي عائد
+
+96
+00:09:04,060 --> 00:09:07,620
+أي عائد في الدنيا من أي استثمار بيعطيني two
+
+97
+00:09:07,620 --> 00:09:12,260
+different yields يعني بيعطيني عائدين باختلاف عن
+
+98
+00:09:12,260 --> 00:09:16,460
+بعض العائد الأول بيسموه capital gains بيسميه
+
+99
+00:09:16,460 --> 00:09:21,780
+capital gains عائد رأسمالي والعائد الثاني بيسموه
+
+100
+00:09:21,780 --> 00:09:26,700
+dividends yield أو في ناس بيسموه current yield طيب
+
+101
+00:09:26,700 --> 00:09:31,780
+نطلع على المعادلة تبعتنا حلتوه الكلام هذا حلتوه اه
+
+102
+00:09:31,780 --> 00:09:42,080
+لحظة حلتوه الكلام هذا okay نرجع
+
+103
+00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:48,200
+للمعادلة is b1 minus b0 نفس المعادلة هذه بس just
+
+104
+00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:54,400
+we break it up into two equations plus d1 divided
+
+105
+00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:59,620
+by b0 طبعا هذه ال R هي نفس ال holding period اللي
+
+106
+00:09:59,620 --> 00:10:05,860
+هو ال return okay so it means the return has two
+
+107
+00:10:05,860 --> 00:10:09,960
+components ال return له two components يعني مكون
+
+108
+00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:14,400
+من من من شقين or two parts the first part this
+
+109
+00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:20,160
+part هذا ال part is known as capital gains
+
+110
+00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:34,200
+Capital Gain وهذا الجزء يعرف بـ Dividends Yields
+
+111
+00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:38,440
+لدينا اثنين جزءين مختلفين، الـ Capital Gains
+
+112
+00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:46,240
+و Dividends Yields الـ Capital Gains تحدث فقط عندما
+
+113
+00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:50,710
+نبيع الأسهم يعني ال capital gains بس بتحدث عندما
+
+114
+00:10:50,710 --> 00:10:54,210
+بنبيع ال assets بنعطيكوا مثال من الحياة العملية
+
+115
+00:10:54,210 --> 00:11:01,610
+تبعتنا لو احنا اشترينا مثلا بيت real estate
+
+116
+00:11:01,610 --> 00:11:05,370
+اشترينا البيت هذا ب 100 ألف دولار okay انتبهوا
+
+117
+00:11:05,370 --> 00:11:08,610
+معايا و ركزوا okay اشترينا البيت هذا by one
+
+118
+00:11:08,610 --> 00:11:16,530
+hundred thousand dollar the
+
+119
+00:11:16,530 --> 00:11:21,630
+real .. the house or the building we bought the
+
+120
+00:11:21,630 --> 00:11:26,010
+building at one hundred thousand dollars هنا ال
+
+121
+00:11:26,010 --> 00:11:30,190
+building طب
+
+122
+00:11:30,190 --> 00:11:33,490
+if I ask you calculate the capital gains and the
+
+123
+00:11:33,490 --> 00:11:37,290
+current yield or dividend yield the same current
+
+124
+00:11:37,290 --> 00:11:41,710
+yield يعني current yield it means العائد الجاري لو
+
+125
+00:11:41,710 --> 00:11:47,000
+أنا سألتكم حسبولي قداش العائد الجاري there is no
+
+126
+00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:51,380
+additional information مافيش عندي معلومات إن أنا 
+
+127
+00:11:51,380 --> 00:11:54,300
+how to calculate this if I add up a new
+
+128
+00:11:54,300 --> 00:11:57,740
+information إذا أنا أضفت لكم معلومات جديدة قلت لكم
+
+129
+00:11:57,740 --> 00:12:01,660
+the owner of this building decided to rent or to
+
+130
+00:12:01,660 --> 00:12:07,920
+let كلمة let إيش معناها let let معناها أنه يؤجر to
+
+131
+00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:11,690
+let the house let the house يعني rent to let the
+
+132
+00:12:11,690 --> 00:12:15,210
+house يعني يؤجر ال house to let the house for
+
+133
+00:12:15,210 --> 00:12:22,870
+instance by 6000 a year يعني 
+
+134
+00:12:22,870 --> 00:12:27,510
+بده يؤجر البيت ب 6000 دولار بالسنة my question is
+
+135
+00:12:27,510 --> 00:12:30,770
+now there is a capital gain here؟ فيه capital
+
+136
+00:12:30,770 --> 00:12:33,350
+gains؟ إيش الموجود يعني ال capital gains ولا 
+
+137
+00:12:33,350 --> 00:12:38,000
+current yield current yield there is no capital
+
+138
+00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:41,600
+gains لأن ال capital gains only occurs when we
+
+139
+00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:45,200
+sell the business يعني ال capital gains بحدث لما
+
+140
+00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:50,320
+نبيعها as long as we are holding the
+
+141
+00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:55,780
+business it means we only receive a current yield
+
+142
+00:12:55,780 --> 00:12:58,960
+what is the current yield طب قداش ال current yield
+
+143
+00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,440
+خلينا نطبق ال equation احنا ال equation قلنا P1
+
+144
+00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:06,860
+minus P0 divided by P0 plus اللي هو ال dividends
+
+145
+00:13:06,860 --> 00:13:11,660
+divided by P0 طبعا ال dividends احنا ما عندناش ال
+
+146
+00:13:11,660 --> 00:13:16,760
+dividends في لنا ال let مظبوط اللي هو احنا الإيجار
+
+147
+00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:22,040
+طبعا هذه مش موجودة عندنا so we have only the
+
+148
+00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,780
+current yield قداش ال current yield؟ six
+
+149
+00:13:24,780 --> 00:13:29,070
+thousands divided by one hundred thousand so it
+
+150
+00:13:29,070 --> 00:13:35,610
+equals كده ألف على ألف تطلع ستة ألف six percent
+
+151
+00:13:35,610 --> 00:13:40,770
+six percent يعني احنا عندنا ال current yield هو
+
+152
+00:13:40,770 --> 00:13:47,090
+six percent okay just a minute if the owner
+
+153
+00:13:47,090 --> 00:13:50,190
+decided شوفوا كيف أنا بدأ أعمل developments لل
+
+154
+00:13:50,190 --> 00:13:58,940
+equation if he or she decided to sell it إنه يبيعها
+
+155
+00:13:58,940 --> 00:14:04,380
+and it makes .. okay and then it .. he sold this
+
+156
+00:14:04,380 --> 00:14:10,640
+at one hundred and twenty thousand dollar باعها
+
+157
+00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,680
+على مائة و عشرين ألف دولار المبنى بقى على مائة و
+
+158
+00:14:13,680 --> 00:14:19,080
+عشرين ألف دولار طيب صديق هيكون عندنا ال equation
+
+159
+00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:19,680
+كانت تانية 
+
+160
+00:14:22,460 --> 00:14:26,220
+Okay هلا عندك ال .. ال .. ال yields ال R هتساوي
+
+161
+00:14:26,220 --> 00:14:33,780
+again P1 minus P0 divided by P0 plus let على P0
+
+162
+00:14:33,780 --> 00:14:37,520
+فتساوي P1 minus P0 one hundred twenty thousand
+
+163
+00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:42,040
+minus one hundred thousand divided by one hundred
+
+164
+00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:47,320
+thousand okay plus six thousand divided by one
+
+165
+00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:54,020
+hundred thousand okay now just one hundred twenty
+
+166
+00:14:54,020 --> 00:14:59,280
+thousands ناخدها هنا twenty percent plus six
+
+167
+00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:04,940
+percent so the total is twenty six percent واضحة
+
+168
+00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:07,980
+مية و عشرين ألف نقص مية ألف عشرين ألف على مية ألف
+
+169
+00:15:08,770 --> 00:15:12,050
+twenty percent six thousand على ميت ألف تطلع six
+
+170
+00:15:12,050 --> 00:15:15,830
+percent فال total is twenty six percent ستة و
+
+171
+00:15:15,830 --> 00:15:20,090
+عشرين في الميه of them إذا if we go back إذا
+
+172
+00:15:20,090 --> 00:15:23,490
+نتراجع بنقول إنه twenty five percent is capital
+
+173
+00:15:23,490 --> 00:15:31,530
+gains and six percent is current yield okay
+
+174
+00:15:38,100 --> 00:15:45,100
+طيب باضح الأمور طيب إذا هو الرجال is .. هو تاجر
+
+175
+00:15:45,100 --> 00:15:50,760
+عقاراته، بدهوش يروح يأجر، يبيع بس، مش بيصير هيك؟
+
+176
+00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:55,340
+في ناس بيشتريوا العقار و بيأجروا، في ناس بيشتريوا
+
+177
+00:15:55,340 --> 00:15:58,600
+العقار، مابيأجروش يبيعوا على طول، ففي الحالة هذه
+
+178
+00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,120
+إيش بيكون فيها؟ بيكون الشقة التانية هذا ما يكونش
+
+179
+00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:08,060
+موجود، just depends on this, twenty percent, okay؟
+
+180
+00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:17,500
+So this is the return لكن
+
+181
+00:16:17,500 --> 00:16:20,980
+الدنيا ما تمشيش بها البساطة هذه صح فيها ال
+
+182
+00:16:20,980 --> 00:16:31,180
+calculations لو كان عندي أنا لو
+
+183
+00:16:31,180 --> 00:16:34,140
+كان عندي أنا I invest in just only one building
+
+184
+00:16:34,140 --> 00:16:36,980
+أنا استثمرت في building واحدة if I decided to
+
+185
+00:16:36,980 --> 00:16:43,020
+invest in more than one stock إذا أنا عندي أربع
+
+186
+00:16:43,020 --> 00:16:50,580
+five four five stocks فال R ل ال different stocks
+
+187
+00:16:50,580 --> 00:16:57,280
+is equal the summation of R divided by N مظبوط
+
+188
+00:16:57,280 --> 00:17:00,300
+اللي هو ال average لو كان عندي أنا number of
+
+189
+00:17:00,300 --> 00:17:07,550
+stocks R of stocks فبجيب ال summation of R على ال
+
+190
+00:17:07,550 --> 00:17:12,290
+numbers تبعتهم طبعا على العدد تبعتهم هذا بيسموه ال
+
+191
+00:17:12,290 --> 00:17:16,630
+arithmetic هذا إيش بيسموه arithmetic ال arithmetic
+
+192
+00:17:16,630 --> 00:17:24,930
+average طيب this is the case if you invest in
+
+193
+00:17:24,930 --> 00:17:29,570
+stock one, stock two, stock three till stock n
+
+194
+00:17:30,620 --> 00:17:35,100
+العدد معاهم الأسهم قداش العائد تبعهم العائد هو
+
+195
+00:17:35,100 --> 00:17:39,800
+مجموع العوائد على عددهم مظبوط ال average تمام ال
+
+196
+00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:43,820
+average تبعهم okay
+
+197
+00:17:43,820 --> 00:17:47,020
+طيب
+
+198
+00:17:47,020 --> 00:17:52,880
+لو كان أنا عندي نرجع
+
+199
+00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:57,500
+لفكرة العقار لو كان أنا عندي هذا العقار 100 ألف
+
+200
+00:17:57,500 --> 00:17:57,820
+دولار
+
+201
+00:18:00,980 --> 00:18:07,700
+اللي هو B note and I'm thinking what is the rate
+
+202
+00:18:07,700 --> 00:18:12,660
+of return of this building for the next year ندى
+
+203
+00:18:12,660 --> 00:18:16,040
+أعرف العائد للسنة الجاية we don't know exactly
+
+204
+00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,820
+what is the rate of return for the next year نقدرش
+
+205
+00:18:18,820 --> 00:18:21,200
+نعرف بالظبط قداش rate of return for the next year
+
+206
+00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:26,240
+so we are uncertain about the rate of return for
+
+207
+00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:31,270
+the next year uncertain يعني غير متأكدين إنه قداش
+
+208
+00:18:31,270 --> 00:18:38,450
+العائد بتاعنا ممكن يكون نبيع البيت ب 110 ألف يعني
+
+209
+00:18:38,450 --> 00:18:44,390
+ممكن 120 ممكن نخسر 90 و يضلناه وبالتالي بنعطي
+
+210
+00:18:44,390 --> 00:18:50,350
+احتمالات البيعة 110 ممكن احتمالنا يكون 50% نبيعه
+
+211
+00:18:50,350 --> 00:18:56,310
+110 ممكن 120 احتمالنا 25% ممكن 90 ألف نبيعه احتمال
+
+212
+00:18:56,310 --> 00:19:03,790
+25 طب what is the expected price سهل نضرب كل واحدة
+
+213
+00:19:03,790 --> 00:19:10,030
+ال bi نضربها في ال price و بنجمعهم مع بعض طب if we
+
+214
+00:19:10,030 --> 00:19:13,850
+invest in the in the stocks إذا احنا بنستثمر في ال
+
+215
+00:19:13,850 --> 00:19:19,630
+stocks and we don't know the expected return for
+
+216
+00:19:19,630 --> 00:19:23,490
+the future يعني احنا بنستثمر في stock now and we
+
+217
+00:19:23,490 --> 00:19:25,710
+want to estimate the rate of return of a
+
+218
+00:19:25,710 --> 00:19:29,010
+particular stock for the future يعني احنا مستثمرين
+
+219
+00:19:29,010 --> 00:19:31,990
+في سهم الآن بدنا نعرف هذا السهم كده يعطينا عائد
+
+220
+00:19:31,990 --> 00:19:35,350
+السنة الجاية nobody knows exactly ما حدش يعرف
+
+221
+00:19:35,350 --> 00:19:40,640
+بالظبط but we try to predict نحاول نتنبأ we try to
+
+222
+00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:44,260
+forecast by using the probability نستخدم
+
+223
+00:19:44,260 --> 00:19:49,100
+الاحتمالات okay so let's see how it works طبعا هذا
+
+224
+00:19:49,100 --> 00:19:51,500
+كله شرحنا ال beginning price و ال ending price
+
+225
+00:19:51,500 --> 00:19:58,400
+okay and I give you the samples okay طيب هلأ نيجي
+
+226
+00:19:58,400 --> 00:19:59,580
+نحكي على الاحتمال
+
+227
+00:20:02,070 --> 00:20:05,010
+the expectation of r we use the expectation of r
+
+228
+00:20:05,010 --> 00:20:09,610
+the expectation of the of the rates of the return
+
+229
+00:20:09,610 --> 00:20:12,810
+for the future إذا ال expectation نستخدمها لفيوتر
+
+230
+00:20:12,810 --> 00:20:16,830
+the question is what is the expected return for
+
+231
+00:20:16,830 --> 00:20:22,160
+the future اتطلعوا على المثال اللي أعطيتكم إياه إنه
+
+232
+00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:26,460
+احنا بنضرب ال return بال probability look at it هي
+
+233
+00:20:26,460 --> 00:20:30,520
+is the summation of the probability of the state
+
+234
+00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:38,520
+احتمال الحدوث times the return of the state أخذته
+
+235
+00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:43,760
+هذا برياضيات التجارين أنا معتقد آه أخذته أو إدارة
+
+236
+00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:49,260
+مالية أخذته مش مهم كتير إنه أخذته و ما أخدهوش احنا
+
+237
+00:20:49,260 --> 00:20:53,860
+بنحاول to bridge it to bridge it off to bridge it
+
+238
+00:20:53,860 --> 00:21:00,020
+off يعني نغطي الفجوة آه so we try to do this
+
+239
+00:21:00,020 --> 00:21:03,700
+ببساطة خليني just to summarize be attention here
+
+240
+00:21:03,700 --> 00:21:07,580
+you don't need to memorize لا تحاولوا إنكم تحفظوا
+
+241
+00:21:07,580 --> 00:21:13,280
+كتير just consider this case خدوا هال مثال البسيط
+
+242
+00:21:14,890 --> 00:21:17,390
+لو احنا if we think to invest in a particular
+
+243
+00:21:17,390 --> 00:21:22,210
+stock for the next year طبعا لما نحكي next year
+
+244
+00:21:22,210 --> 00:21:26,310
+نحكي for the future and you given this information
+
+245
+00:21:26,310 --> 00:21:34,350
+و أعطيناكم هالمعلومات هذه the expected R and the
+
+246
+00:21:34,350 --> 00:21:39,670
+probability the probability of R to occur يعني
+
+247
+00:21:39,670 --> 00:21:40,830
+احتمال R إنه تحدث
+
+248
+00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:51,840
+Okay بحط P probability YR for instance 40% we have
+
+249
+00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,920
+40% and
+
+250
+00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,320
+30
+
+251
+00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:09,380
+% 30% أو خليني أسهلهم هان أربعين ناخد خمسة و عشرين
+
+252
+00:22:09,380 --> 00:22:15,820
+بيصير عندنا خمسة و ستين و بيبقى خمسة و ثلاثين Okay
+
+253
+00:22:15,820 --> 00:22:20,840
+لازم يكون هدول مجموعهم مقداش؟ مئة في المئة okay
+
+254
+00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:26,520
+one hundred percent أو واحد صحيح okay when the
+
+255
+00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:31,060
+probability forty percent the r we expect are ten
+
+256
+00:22:31,060 --> 00:22:35,420
+percent twenty five we expect seven percent and
+
+257
+00:22:35,420 --> 00:22:37,000
+here we expect four percent
+
+258
+00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:45,220
+القروش هو بيحكي expectation of R is equal to
+
+259
+00:22:45,220 --> 00:22:52,900
+summation of VI times RI  مش مشكلة لو في كتب تستخدم
+
+260
+00:22:52,900 --> 00:22:57,960
+I في تستخدم S يعني بيه S or بيه I is the same يعني
+
+261
+00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:06,200
+احتمال في ال return طيب بنشوف ال B times ال R
+
+262
+00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:07,600
+احتمال
+
+263
+00:23:09,420 --> 00:23:19,160
+0.10×0.40 0.047×0.25 0.07×0
+
+264
+00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:24,320
+.25 0
+
+265
+00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:31,880
+.0175
+
+266
+00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,320
+0.0175
+
+267
+00:23:41,460 --> 00:23:50,220
+.014 طب summation اجمعهم مع بعض 0
+
+268
+00:23:50,220 --> 00:23:53,640
+.0715
+
+269
+00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:59,600
+يعني بتطلع الجواب اللي هو 7.15% إذا ال expected R
+
+270
+00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:07,020
+is equal to 7.15% طبعا البنات اللي معاهم ال
+
+271
+00:24:07,020 --> 00:24:12,540
+calculators يتأكدوا من ال ..من ال results طبعا و
+
+272
+00:24:12,540 --> 00:24:14,520
+البنات اللي معاهم مش calculator لما يرجعوا البيت
+
+273
+00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,800
+يتأكدوا من ال results لأنها سؤال جاي في الامتحان
+
+274
+00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:23,120
+I know this is simple but when you go to exam
+
+275
+00:24:23,120 --> 00:24:29,180
+things بيصير شيء صعب so the expected return this is
+
+276
+00:24:29,180 --> 00:24:31,840
+the expected return so far we talk about the
+
+277
+00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:38,580
+expected return and we don't talk about the risk
+
+278
+00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,900
+ما حكينا؟ عن المخاطر what is risk؟ مين بيقول لي إيش
+
+279
+00:24:45,900 --> 00:24:51,240
+ال risk؟ حكيناها في chapter one و chapter two what
+
+280
+00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:57,460
+is risk؟ إيش ال risk؟ شو المخاطر؟ what .. what is
+
+281
+00:24:57,460 --> 00:25:04,560
+the risk in investment؟ شو المخاطر؟ what is risk؟
+
+282
+00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,720
+و احنا قاعدين نحكي risk و risk و هذا و مخاطر و من
+
+283
+00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:19,900
+السنة الفاتة اهبس انخفاض الأسعار هذه المخاطر أيوة
+
+284
+00:25:19,900 --> 00:25:23,740
+هي أهم شيء is uncertainty ال risk هي is
+
+285
+00:25:23,740 --> 00:25:29,180
+uncertainty to get the expected rate of return لأن
+
+286
+00:25:29,180 --> 00:25:37,040
+احنا مش متأكدين أنه هيحدث ال return ولا لأ طيب لو
+
+287
+00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,840
+جينا احنا from the .. from the charge point of
+
+288
+00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:49,120
+view طلعوا إيش ال risk طلعوا
+
+289
+00:25:49,120 --> 00:25:54,340
+على ال ..
+
+290
+00:25:54,340 --> 00:26:01,640
+طلعوا هم لو جينا احنا أخدنا الخط هذا و احنا اليوم
+
+291
+00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:07,040
+كم التاريخ اليوم اثنين و عشرين لو قلنا لكم بتقدروا
+
+292
+00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:15,460
+تتنبأوا ال 23 إيش هيكون السعر؟ ممكن تتنبأوا ولا مش
+
+293
+00:26:15,460 --> 00:26:20,060
+ممكن؟ طلعوا على الخط المستقيم مين بيقدر يقول لي 23
+
+294
+00:26:20,060 --> 00:26:28,840
+وين احتمال يكون السعر؟ فحط خط عليه، شوف الخط يعني،
+
+295
+00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:37,180
+بالظبط، ليش؟ لأن هنا ال uncertainty it's very low
+
+296
+00:26:37,180 --> 00:26:40,460
+ال uncertainty يعني احتمال عدم التأكد منخفضة يعني
+
+297
+00:26:40,460 --> 00:26:46,000
+خاطر منخفضة طيب حفظتوا هذه الرسمة ناخد رسمة أخرى
+
+298
+00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:52,520
+إذا هنا التأكد منخفض ترجع
+
+299
+00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,080
+يا ميا لل videos طيب
+
+300
+00:27:05,470 --> 00:27:12,030
+طيب احنا هلا ب 22 okay 22 مين
+
+301
+00:27:12,030 --> 00:27:18,130
+بيقدر يعمل له؟ هي موجودة
+
+302
+00:27:18,130 --> 00:27:23,650
+هيك okay إيش رأيك؟ بتأكد يعني؟ بس لما فات ما طلعت
+
+303
+00:27:23,650 --> 00:27:26,990
+كانت احتمال تأكد عالي صح؟ بس هلجيت إيش رأيك؟ تعالي
+
+304
+00:27:26,990 --> 00:27:31,430
+أعطيني ال possible و أرجعيني أشوف عشان نعرف what it
+
+305
+00:27:31,430 --> 00:27:32,370
+means uncertainty
+
+306
+00:27:35,590 --> 00:27:40,790
+متأكدة؟ لا طب أخدت ال option الثاني option الثاني
+
+307
+00:27:40,790 --> 00:27:46,530
+أيوه يعني فيه أنا خليني احتمالاتي أعمل مقاطع مقاطع
+
+308
+00:27:46,530 --> 00:27:52,910
+أعمل مقاطع على دي لا مقاطع ثاني واضح أيوه إذا فيه
+
+309
+00:27:52,910 --> 00:27:56,770
+أنا احتمالين شوفوا في احتمالين the return is going
+
+310
+00:27:56,770 --> 00:28:02,060
+up or the return is going down إذا ال uncertainty
+
+311
+00:28:02,060 --> 00:28:07,440
+هان يا بنات ال uncertainty comparing with the
+
+312
+00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:13,140
+previous chart is lower or higher is higher just
+
+313
+00:28:13,140 --> 00:28:16,220
+depict this احفظوا الرسمة هالي خلينا ناخذ رسمة
+
+314
+00:28:16,220 --> 00:28:23,440
+أخرى ليه يا شماي رسمتي إيه هي هي هي
+
+315
+00:28:30,130 --> 00:28:36,350
+مش سامع جولة أنا يوم اثنين و عشرين اللي هو اليوم
+
+316
+00:28:36,350 --> 00:28:39,470
+لنا نعمل expectations لبكرا ل tomorrow اللي هو
+
+317
+00:28:39,470 --> 00:28:43,530
+ثلاثة و عشرين فثلاثة و عشرين مش عارفين يعني هي حسب
+
+318
+00:28:43,530 --> 00:28:50,150
+ما حكت أسماء أسماء حمدية حسب ما حكت كانت احتمال
+
+319
+00:28:50,150 --> 00:28:55,570
+أنه to go up or to go down مظبوط فمش متأكد لكن لما
+
+320
+00:28:55,570 --> 00:28:59,190
+طلعت فأنت ما حكت أنه with a certain و .. و the
+
+321
+00:28:59,190 --> 00:29:03,010
+certain level احتمالات أو احتمالات التأكد كانت
+
+322
+00:29:03,010 --> 00:29:09,830
+أعلى تمام؟ okay ناخذ
+
+323
+00:29:09,830 --> 00:29:13,330
+مثال آخر إيش رأيكم؟
+
+324
+00:29:27,410 --> 00:29:34,090
+طيب بدنا نهلة إيه إيش رأيك؟ فوق؟ طيب؟ اعمل .. اعمل
+
+325
+00:29:34,090 --> 00:29:37,530
+.. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+326
+00:29:37,530 --> 00:29:37,550
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+327
+00:29:37,550 --> 00:29:38,330
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+328
+00:29:38,330 --> 00:29:38,950
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+329
+00:29:38,950 --> 00:29:47,630
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+330
+00:29:47,630 --> 00:29:56,690
+اعمل
+
+331
+00:29:57,540 --> 00:30:02,600
+يعني لو احنا شفنا التشارت الأول خلينا to .. to
+
+332
+00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,360
+get the pictures back .. to get the pictures back
+
+333
+00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,600
+إيش يعني to get the pictures back؟ خلينا نراجع
+
+334
+00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:12,140
+الصور الثلاث اللي احنا .. نحطهم هيك قدامها مع بعض
+
+335
+00:30:12,140 --> 00:30:15,260
+and to compare between the .. شوف
+
+336
+00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:30,480
+طبعا الصورة الأولى هي هذه الصورة الأولى أحمد
+
+337
+00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:34,980
+التكييف عالي كثير خلاص switch it off اطفيه اطفيه
+
+338
+00:30:34,980 --> 00:30:38,620
+خلاص
+
+339
+00:30:38,620 --> 00:30:48,420
+طبعا
+
+340
+00:30:48,420 --> 00:30:50,840
+خلينا together picture back
+
+341
+00:30:53,920 --> 00:31:00,840
+أخذنا هذه و قلنا الاحتمال تأكد في هنا high
+
+342
+00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:06,100
+certainty تأكد
+
+343
+00:31:06,100 --> 00:31:12,080
+عالي في هنا moderate certainty و هنا high
+
+344
+00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:21,410
+uncertainty أو بيسموها low certainty okay طيب how
+
+345
+00:31:21,410 --> 00:31:24,690
+we measure this طب كيف احنا احنا الرسمة هيك okay
+
+346
+00:31:24,690 --> 00:31:29,910
+بس لكن كيف بدنا نقيسها هذا المعادل نقيس ال
+
+347
+00:31:29,910 --> 00:31:33,570
+expectations return نقيس ال expectations return
+
+348
+00:31:33,570 --> 00:31:39,810
+ما بتقاسش ال sigma طيب طالع علينا طب احنا لو حسبنا
+
+349
+00:31:39,810 --> 00:31:44,970
+ال average تبع هذا و بدنا نشوف إيش بيصير ال
+
+350
+00:31:44,970 --> 00:31:48,830
+deviation؟ ال deviation يعني النقاط خارج ال
+
+351
+00:31:48,830 --> 00:31:53,310
+average ما في نقاط zero إذا هل ال uncertainty سو
+
+352
+00:31:53,310 --> 00:31:59,890
+سفر؟ يعني ال certainty سو one hundred percent طيب
+
+353
+00:31:59,890 --> 00:32:03,390
+خلينا ناخذ ال average تبع هذا الخط ال average هذا
+
+354
+00:32:03,390 --> 00:32:08,880
+هو ال average تبع الخط الأزرق هذا ال average بنشوف
+
+355
+00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,620
+احنا فيه قيم تحت ال average و فيه قيم أعلى من ال
+
+356
+00:32:11,620 --> 00:32:15,820
+average هذا ال average هو ال certainty هو المؤكد و
+
+357
+00:32:15,820 --> 00:32:23,960
+هدول قيم أعلى و أقل الفرق الفرق بين الفرق hand
+
+358
+00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:32,560
+شوفوا بنحسب الفرق قدر كده؟ كل ما بكون الفرق كبير
+
+359
+00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:38,900
+كل ما كان فيه risk أعلى طبعا فكيف بنقيسه هذا بنقيسه
+
+360
+00:32:38,900 --> 00:32:42,760
+ب sigma standard
+
+361
+00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,200
+or standard deviation أو بنقيسه ب standard
+
+362
+00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:54,340
+deviation طب خلينا ناخذ هذا ناخذ هذا أخذنا ال
+
+363
+00:32:54,340 --> 00:32:58,840
+average زيهم أخذنا ال average طب ال average زي ما
+
+364
+00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:06,250
+حكينا هو الفرق بين القيم كم تبعد عن ال average يعني
+
+365
+00:33:06,250 --> 00:33:09,870
+القيم كم تبعد عن ال average هذا هو بتلاحظوا
+
+366
+00:33:09,870 --> 00:33:13,890
+المسافة هذه قارنوها مع المسافة هذه أكبر ولا أكبر
+
+367
+00:33:13,890 --> 00:33:20,290
+إذا ال uncertainty أعلى إذا ال sigma هتكون أعلى ال
+
+368
+00:33:20,290 --> 00:33:24,630
+sigma إذا بتقارنه sigma بين هان و sigma هان كل
+
+369
+00:33:24,630 --> 00:33:29,490
+النقاط على الخط هان صفر طب sigma هان نفترض تكون
+
+370
+00:33:29,490 --> 00:33:37,620
+مثلا 6% ال sigma هتكون أعلى من 6% فإذا كل ما احنا
+
+371
+00:33:37,620 --> 00:33:41,480
+ال fluctuation هذا fluctuation إيش اسمه
+
+372
+00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:48,160
+fluctuation okay fluctuation هذا التذبذب كل ما
+
+373
+00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:53,860
+بيزيد شوفته تخطيط القلب كل ما بيصير احنا بنعرف انه
+
+374
+00:33:53,860 --> 00:33:59,100
+ضربات القلب كل ما بتكون غير منتظمة بكون في .. فششي
+
+375
+00:33:59,100 --> 00:34:03,840
+monotic فششي انتظام بضربات القلب فهذا بيكون المريض 
+
+376
+00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:08,940
+في خطر okay we don't know فإذا كان الوضع بهذا
+
+377
+00:34:08,940 --> 00:34:15,980
+الشكل هذا بيكون هذا في خطر لكن إذا كان الوضع طبيعي
+
+378
+00:34:15,980 --> 00:34:22,560
+مثلا مثل هكذا ف okay هذا طبيعي يعني في ..انتظام في
+
+379
+00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:27,320
+ضربات القلب بس ملاحظينها أن مافيش انتظام في risk
+
+380
+00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:32,660
+عالي جدا فكل ما بتعدد القيم شوفوا القيم كده بعيدة
+
+381
+00:34:32,660 --> 00:34:36,980
+عن ال average على المتوسط كل ما القيم بعددت على
+
+382
+00:34:36,980 --> 00:34:42,580
+المتوسط كل ما ال sigma كبرت كل ما زادت المخاطر how
+
+383
+00:34:42,580 --> 00:34:45,820
+we calculate sigma كيف احنا ممكن نحسب ال sigma
+
+384
+00:34:45,820 --> 00:34:54,610
+ببساطة ال sigma سيجما تربيع is اللي هو فاكرين أن ال
+
+385
+00:34:54,610 --> 00:35:06,050
+R minus R  R minus expectation of R ال B I مجموعة
+
+386
+00:35:06,050 --> 00:35:14,130
+مجموعة ال B I times R minus expectation of R هذا
+
+387
+00:35:14,130 --> 00:35:19,620
+هو السيجما تربيع طبعا سوري هنا power two هو اثنين
+
+388
+00:35:19,620 --> 00:35:23,300
+أخدتوه هذا بال statistics بالإحصاء .. بإحصاء
+
+389
+00:35:23,300 --> 00:35:27,720
+أخدتوه بالرياضيات التجارية أخدتوه في financial
+
+390
+00:35:27,720 --> 00:35:31,020
+management okay فإن شاء الله next meeting انا
+
+391
+00:35:31,020 --> 00:35:37,160
+أحاول أعمل لكم سؤال عليه نحله كله مع بعض okay فهذا
+
+392
+00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:45,240
+.. هاي معطيكوا لي فعل هان طلعوا هان ال probability
+
+393
+00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:51,520
+نفس المعادلة اللي أعطيتكم إياها نحسب ال ER حسبتلك 
+
+394
+00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:55,380
+إياها بالمثال السابق okay بتطلع هذا الجواب هل لما
+
+395
+00:35:55,380 --> 00:35:58,440
+نحسب ال sigma تربيع نفس المعادلة اللي أعطيتكم إياها
+
+396
+00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:03,880
+okay ال standard deviation هو شفتوا احنا بنستخدم
+
+397
+00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,600
+ال sigma or standard deviation
+
+398
+00:36:09,430 --> 00:36:14,650
+نعيد نفس المثال و بنروح ال probability R minus I
+
+399
+00:36:14,650 --> 00:36:18,270
+بترجعوه في البيت و بتشوفوا أنتو كيف الوضع طلع
+
+400
+00:36:18,270 --> 00:36:24,510
+معاكم وصلنا لعند number 22 في حد عندك سؤال يا
+
+401
+00:36:24,510 --> 00:36:24,950
+بنات؟ 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/2sBv6juKWtc_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/2sBv6juKWtc_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..68024737de7f021300f7afcd20e3d1844e3dba0c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/2sBv6juKWtc_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1616 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:24,670
+الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة
+
+2
+00:00:24,670 --> 00:00:27,090
+الأولى تكون نحكي عن ال relationship between
+
+3
+00:00:27,090 --> 00:00:31,150
+treasury bills and inflation rates اليوم هنحكي
+
+4
+00:00:31,150 --> 00:00:35,750
+العلاقة بين ال risk and risk premiums علاقة ال
+
+5
+00:00:35,750 --> 00:00:38,490
+risk and risk premiums خليني نعرف أيش ال risk and
+
+6
+00:00:38,490 --> 00:00:41,950
+premiums ال risk عارفين من المخاطر ال risk
+
+7
+00:00:41,950 --> 00:00:48,690
+premiums هي علاوة المخاطر لو احنا ركزنا بال charts
+
+8
+00:00:50,620 --> 00:00:55,040
+بركزنا بال charts و
+
+9
+00:00:55,040 --> 00:01:00,440
+حكينا هن ال commercial paper okay و هن ال sorry هن
+
+10
+00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:06,700
+treasury bills هن commercial paper و هن stocks و
+
+11
+00:01:06,700 --> 00:01:12,160
+هن bonds و هن derivatives okay احنا بنعرف الكلام
+
+12
+00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:17,120
+هذا من الأول خليني أسأل سؤال بسيط which holding
+
+13
+00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:23,100
+more risk stocks or bondsمين بيحمل المخاطر اكتر؟
+
+14
+00:01:23,100 --> 00:01:26,480
+ال stocks ولا ال bonds؟ bonds طبعا هناخد risk هان
+
+15
+00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:30,800
+و هناخد ال expected return يعني هاي ال risk و هاي
+
+16
+00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:35,440
+ال return اذا ال stocks holding more risk than ال
+
+17
+00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:40,100
+bonds ال stocks بتحمل مخاطر اعلى من ال bonds،
+
+18
+00:01:40,100 --> 00:01:47,320
+مظبوط؟ طيب يعني لو احنا أخدمها ال bonds
+
+19
+00:01:56,540 --> 00:02:01,720
+الـ stocks زي
+
+20
+00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:08,200
+ما انتوا شايفين holding higher risk than bonds
+
+21
+00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:13,700
+okay look at this chart اذا هذا ال risk risk is
+
+22
+00:02:13,700 --> 00:02:17,480
+measured by sigma we will explain what it means
+
+23
+00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:23,660
+sigmaال risk مقاس ب sigma فإذا احنا اعتبرنا هذا
+
+24
+00:02:23,660 --> 00:02:26,340
+sigma zero اللي هو treasure built sigma zero يعني
+
+25
+00:02:26,340 --> 00:02:30,100
+ال .. ال .. ال system at risk عن sigma zero هذا
+
+26
+00:02:30,100 --> 00:02:34,640
+sigma one وهنا sigma two اللي هو sigma two اللي هو
+
+27
+00:02:34,640 --> 00:02:37,500
+sigma بتاعة ال stock و sigma one اللي هو sigma
+
+28
+00:02:37,500 --> 00:02:42,820
+بتاعة ال bond sigma bond طيب إيش بتلاحظوا ال sigma
+
+29
+00:02:42,820 --> 00:02:49,400
+of stocksis greater than sigma of bond look at the
+
+30
+00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:53,820
+expected rate of return of bonds expected rate R
+
+31
+00:02:53,820 --> 00:02:59,660
+of bonds and look at the R of stock which is
+
+32
+00:02:59,660 --> 00:03:04,240
+greater the return of stocks or the return of
+
+33
+00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:12,540
+bonds stocks is greater by this يعني هو أكبر ب
+
+34
+00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:21,120
+بهالفترة هذه because look at here because stocks
+
+35
+00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:25,120
+holding more risk they are holding higher return
+
+36
+00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:32,580
+the difference of stocks risk is compensated by
+
+37
+00:03:32,580 --> 00:03:35,920
+risk premium so because the investors holding more
+
+38
+00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:41,360
+risk are compensated byexcess return or risk
+
+39
+00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,580
+premium فهذه الفترة تسميها excess premium او risk
+
+40
+00:03:45,580 --> 00:03:50,900
+premium risk premium or
+
+41
+00:03:50,900 --> 00:03:58,020
+return premium يعني سميها return premium وفي بعض
+
+42
+00:03:58,020 --> 00:04:05,260
+الكتب بيسموها excess return excess return يعني زي
+
+43
+00:04:05,260 --> 00:04:09,300
+ما احنا اتحملنا مخاطر اكتر في ال stocksهناخد عائد
+
+44
+00:04:09,300 --> 00:04:12,320
+اكتر، قداش قيمة العائد الزيادة هي هذه الفترة
+
+45
+00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:16,280
+الزمنية، شايفينها؟ just this هذا الفرق من ناتوم
+
+46
+00:04:16,280 --> 00:04:20,280
+because we are holding higher risk we are taking
+
+47
+00:04:20,280 --> 00:04:27,680
+higher return okay طيب so first of all قبل ما احنا
+
+48
+00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:31,680
+to go in details about thisخلّينا ندخل في التفاصيل
+
+49
+00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:35,380
+خلّينا ت estimate the expected rate of return of
+
+50
+00:04:35,380 --> 00:04:39,700
+stocks or of bonds و بعدين بنعمل estimation لل
+
+51
+00:04:39,700 --> 00:04:43,800
+sigma then we calculate the differences in the
+
+52
+00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,460
+risk premium لأنه
+
+53
+00:04:47,460 --> 00:04:50,800
+احنا هتحملنا مخاطر أعلى فال return هيكون أعلى
+
+54
+00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:55,210
+فالخريطة تبعتنا من هان لكمان يومانيعني ال meeting
+
+55
+00:04:55,210 --> 00:04:59,530
+هذا مع ال meeting الجاي هنحكي بال how we estimate
+
+56
+00:04:59,530 --> 00:05:04,490
+the return then how we estimate sigma كيف نحسب ال
+
+57
+00:05:04,490 --> 00:05:07,670
+return و كيف نحسب ال sigma ال sigma اللي هو ال ..
+
+58
+00:05:07,670 --> 00:05:10,750
+ال sigma استعملها ال deviation و ال .. و ال
+
+59
+00:05:10,750 --> 00:05:14,710
+variance هنحكي فيها okay أخدتوها بال .. بال
+
+60
+00:05:14,710 --> 00:05:19,640
+statistics okay rates of returnاللي هو كيف نحسب ال
+
+61
+00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:23,700
+rate of return ال rate of return زي ما تشوفين بقى
+
+62
+00:05:23,700 --> 00:05:29,280
+b1 minus b0 plus d1 على b0 طبعا هذا ال rate of
+
+63
+00:05:29,280 --> 00:05:33,800
+return for the stockإذا بنحسب لأي stock بنقول اللي
+
+64
+00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:39,160
+هو B1 minus B node divided by B node plus D1 على B
+
+65
+00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:43,920
+node فإذا إحنا بنجمعهم مع بعض بتساوي B1 minus B
+
+66
+00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:51,160
+node على B node plus D1 إيش B1 مش B node أو D1؟ لو
+
+67
+00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:55,180
+إحنا أخدنا for instance stock one particular stock
+
+68
+00:05:55,180 --> 00:05:58,220
+for instance one particular stock
+
+69
+00:06:01,790 --> 00:06:08,130
+is we bought a stock of Baltim or a stock of BIC
+
+70
+00:06:08,130 --> 00:06:12,270
+شركة اسمها BIC موجودة في BIC موجودة في سوق فلسطين
+
+71
+00:06:12,270 --> 00:06:17,070
+الأوراق المالية ونفترض انه ال BIC 2.5 اشتريناها ع
+
+72
+00:06:17,070 --> 00:06:24,430
+2.5 so هذا ال buying price we bought the BIC at 2
+
+73
+00:06:24,430 --> 00:06:37,450
+.5 and we sold itat 4.75 وبيعناه على 4.75 4.75
+
+74
+00:06:37,450 --> 00:06:42,150
+during the holding period يعني خلال الفترة الزمنية
+
+75
+00:06:42,150 --> 00:06:45,730
+و احنا حاملين السهم we receive dividends we
+
+76
+00:06:45,730 --> 00:06:49,330
+receive dividends
+
+77
+00:06:49,330 --> 00:06:52,910
+dividends يعني توزيع الأرباح we receive dividends
+
+78
+00:06:52,910 --> 00:07:03,130
+at point twenty or point ten per shareيعني استلام
+
+79
+00:07:03,130 --> 00:07:09,690
+لأرباح point عشرة cents لكل سنة calculate the
+
+80
+00:07:09,690 --> 00:07:14,750
+holding period return يعني قداش العائد خلال الفترة
+
+81
+00:07:14,750 --> 00:07:17,870
+الزمنية فالعائد خلال ال .. you just apply the
+
+82
+00:07:17,870 --> 00:07:23,910
+equation بس احنا هنطبق المعادلة B1 شوفوا ال B1 you
+
+83
+00:07:23,910 --> 00:07:27,510
+have to know B1, B note and dividends ال B1 هي ال
+
+84
+00:07:27,510 --> 00:07:35,460
+buyingالـ B0 هي ال buying ال B1 ال selling و ال
+
+85
+00:07:35,460 --> 00:07:40,500
+dividends is the dividends اللي هو التوزيعات فبصف
+
+86
+00:07:40,500 --> 00:07:50,740
+الحل طبعا بيعناه على 2.75 2.75 فبصف الحل 2.75
+
+87
+00:07:50,740 --> 00:07:58,260
+minus 2.5 plus 0.10 divided 2.5
+
+88
+00:08:01,370 --> 00:08:09,070
+يعني B1 2.75 اللي احنا بيعناها على 2.75 اشتريناها
+
+89
+00:08:09,070 --> 00:08:16,130
+على 2.5 واخدنا dividends 0.10 و 2.5 اللي هو ال B
+
+90
+00:08:16,130 --> 00:08:23,170
+notes اللي هو ال buying فقدراش بتطلع الجواب عندكم؟
+
+91
+00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:41,060
+أربعة عاشر في الميلاد so the answer is fourteen
+
+92
+00:08:41,060 --> 00:08:46,460
+percent طيب لسه محلل اصنعش the
+
+93
+00:08:46,460 --> 00:08:52,140
+return .. the return is divided or is break down
+
+94
+00:08:52,140 --> 00:08:58,940
+into two types of return أي عائد .. فنات تبهوا عني
+
+95
+00:08:58,940 --> 00:09:01,180
+عائد .. أي عائد
+
+96
+00:09:04,060 --> 00:09:07,620
+أي عائد في الدنيا من أي استثمار بيعطيني two
+
+97
+00:09:07,620 --> 00:09:12,260
+different yields يعني بيعطيني عائدين باختلفة عن
+
+98
+00:09:12,260 --> 00:09:16,460
+بعض العائد الأول بيسموه capital gains بيسميه
+
+99
+00:09:16,460 --> 00:09:21,780
+capital gains عائد رأسمالي والعائد التاني بيسموه
+
+100
+00:09:21,780 --> 00:09:26,700
+dividends yield أو في ناس بيسموه current yield طيب
+
+101
+00:09:26,700 --> 00:09:31,780
+نطلع على المعادلة تبعتناحلتوه الكلام هذا حلتوه اه
+
+102
+00:09:31,780 --> 00:09:42,080
+لحظة حلتوه الكلام هذا okay نرجع
+
+103
+00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:48,200
+للمعادرة is b1 minus b0 نفس المعادرة هذه بس just
+
+104
+00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:54,400
+we break it up into two equations plus d1 divided
+
+105
+00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:59,620
+by b0طبعا هذه ال R هي نفس ال holding period اللي
+
+106
+00:09:59,620 --> 00:10:05,860
+هو ال return okay so it means the return has two
+
+107
+00:10:05,860 --> 00:10:09,960
+components ال return له two components يعني مكوّن
+
+108
+00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:14,400
+من من من شقين or two parts the first part this
+
+109
+00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:20,160
+part هذا ال part is known as capital gains
+
+110
+00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:34,200
+Capital Gain وهذا الجزء يعرف بـ Dividends Yields
+
+111
+00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:38,440
+لدينا اثنين جزءين مختلفة، الـ Capital Gains
+
+112
+00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:46,240
+وDividends Yields الـ Capital Gains تحدث فقط عندما
+
+113
+00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:50,710
+نبيع الأساتيعني ال capital gains بس بتحدث عندما
+
+114
+00:10:50,710 --> 00:10:54,210
+بنبيع ال assets بنعطيكوا مثال من الحياة العملية
+
+115
+00:10:54,210 --> 00:11:01,610
+تبعتنا لو احنا اشترينا مثلا بيت real estate
+
+116
+00:11:01,610 --> 00:11:05,370
+اشترينا البيت هذا ب 100 أرض دولار okay انتبهوا
+
+117
+00:11:05,370 --> 00:11:08,610
+معايا و ركزوا okay اشترينا البيت هذا by one
+
+118
+00:11:08,610 --> 00:11:16,530
+hundred thousand dollar the
+
+119
+00:11:16,530 --> 00:11:21,630
+real .. the houseor the building we bought the
+
+120
+00:11:21,630 --> 00:11:26,010
+building at one hundred thousand dollars هان ال
+
+121
+00:11:26,010 --> 00:11:30,190
+building طب
+
+122
+00:11:30,190 --> 00:11:33,490
+if I ask you calculate the capital gains and the
+
+123
+00:11:33,490 --> 00:11:37,290
+current yield or dividend yield the same current
+
+124
+00:11:37,290 --> 00:11:41,710
+yield يعني current yield it means العائد الجارى لو
+
+125
+00:11:41,710 --> 00:11:47,000
+أنا سألكم حسبولي قداش العائد الجارىthere is no
+
+126
+00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:51,380
+additional information مافيش عندي معلومات ان انا
+
+127
+00:11:51,380 --> 00:11:54,300
+how to calculate this if I add up a new
+
+128
+00:11:54,300 --> 00:11:57,740
+information اذا انا اضفتلكم معلومات جديدة قلتلكم
+
+129
+00:11:57,740 --> 00:12:01,660
+the owner of this building decided to rent or to
+
+130
+00:12:01,660 --> 00:12:07,920
+let كلمة let ايش معناه let let معناها انه يؤجر to
+
+131
+00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:11,690
+let the houselet the house يعني rent to let the
+
+132
+00:12:11,690 --> 00:12:15,210
+house يعني يؤجر ال house to let the house for
+
+133
+00:12:15,210 --> 00:12:22,870
+instance by 6000 a year يعني
+
+134
+00:12:22,870 --> 00:12:27,510
+بده يؤجر البيت ب 6000 دولار بالسنة my question is
+
+135
+00:12:27,510 --> 00:12:30,770
+now there is a capital gain here؟ فيه capital
+
+136
+00:12:30,770 --> 00:12:33,350
+gains؟ إيش الموجود يعني ال capital gains ولا
+
+137
+00:12:33,350 --> 00:12:38,000
+current yield current yieldthere is no capital
+
+138
+00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:41,600
+gains لأن ال capital gains only occurs when we
+
+139
+00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:45,200
+sell the business يعني ال capital gains بحدث لما
+
+140
+00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:50,320
+بس احنا بيها as long as we are holding the
+
+141
+00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:55,780
+business it means we only receive a current yield
+
+142
+00:12:55,780 --> 00:12:58,960
+what is the current yield طب قداش ال current yield
+
+143
+00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,440
+خلينا نطبق ال equationاحنا ال equation قلنا P1
+
+144
+00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:06,860
+minus P0 divided by P0 plus اللي هو ال dividends
+
+145
+00:13:06,860 --> 00:13:11,660
+divided by P0 طبعا ال dividends احنا ماعناشه ال
+
+146
+00:13:11,660 --> 00:13:16,760
+dividends فى لنا ال let مظبوط اللي هو احنا الإيجار
+
+147
+00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:22,040
+طبعا هذه مش موجودة عندنا so we have only the
+
+148
+00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,780
+current yield يداشة ال current yield؟ six
+
+149
+00:13:24,780 --> 00:13:29,070
+thousands divided by one hundred thousandsso it
+
+150
+00:13:29,070 --> 00:13:35,610
+equals كده ألف على ألف تطلع ستة ألف six percent
+
+151
+00:13:35,610 --> 00:13:40,770
+six percent يعني احنا عندنا ال current yield هو
+
+152
+00:13:40,770 --> 00:13:47,090
+six percent okay just a minute if the owner
+
+153
+00:13:47,090 --> 00:13:50,190
+decided شوفوا كيف انا بدأ اعمل developments لل
+
+154
+00:13:50,190 --> 00:13:58,940
+equation if he or she decided to sell itانه يبيعها
+
+155
+00:13:58,940 --> 00:14:04,380
+and it makes .. okay and then it .. he sold this
+
+156
+00:14:04,380 --> 00:14:10,640
+at one hundred and twenty thousand dollar باقها
+
+157
+00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,680
+على مائة و عشرين ألف دولار المبنى بقوا على مائة و
+
+158
+00:14:13,680 --> 00:14:19,080
+عشرين ألف دولار طيب صديق هيكون عندنا ال equation
+
+159
+00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:19,680
+كانت تانية
+
+160
+00:14:22,460 --> 00:14:26,220
+Okay هلا عندك ال .. ال .. ال yields ال R هتساوي
+
+161
+00:14:26,220 --> 00:14:33,780
+again P1 minus P0 divided P0 plus let على P0
+
+162
+00:14:33,780 --> 00:14:37,520
+فتساوي P1 minus P0 one hundred twenty thousand
+
+163
+00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:42,040
+minus one hundred thousand divided by one hundred
+
+164
+00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:47,320
+thousand okay plus six thousand divided by one
+
+165
+00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:54,020
+hundred thousand okay nowjust one hundred twenty
+
+166
+00:14:54,020 --> 00:14:59,280
+thousands ناخدها هنا twenty percent plus six
+
+167
+00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:04,940
+percent so the total is twenty six percent واضحة
+
+168
+00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:07,980
+مية و عشرين ألف نقص مية ألف عشرين ألف على مية ألف
+
+169
+00:15:08,770 --> 00:15:12,050
+twenty percent six thousand على ميت ألف تطلع six
+
+170
+00:15:12,050 --> 00:15:15,830
+percent فال total is twenty six percent ستة و
+
+171
+00:15:15,830 --> 00:15:20,090
+عشرين في الميه of them اذا if we go back اذا
+
+172
+00:15:20,090 --> 00:15:23,490
+نتراجع بنقول انه twenty five percent is capital
+
+173
+00:15:23,490 --> 00:15:31,530
+gains and six percent is current yield okay
+
+174
+00:15:38,100 --> 00:15:45,100
+طيب باضح الأمور طيب إذا هو الرجال is .. هو تاجر
+
+175
+00:15:45,100 --> 00:15:50,760
+عقاراته، بدهوش يروح يأجر، يبيع بس، مش بيصير هيك؟
+
+176
+00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:55,340
+في ناس بيشتريوا العقار و بيأجروا، في ناس بيشتريوا
+
+177
+00:15:55,340 --> 00:15:58,600
+العقار، مابيأجروش يبيعوا على طول، ففي الحالة هذه
+
+178
+00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,120
+إيش بيكون فيها؟ بيكون الشقة التانية هذا مايكونش
+
+179
+00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:08,060
+موجود، just depends on this, twenty percent, okay؟
+
+180
+00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:17,500
+So this is the return لكن
+
+181
+00:16:17,500 --> 00:16:20,980
+الدنيا ماتمشيش بها البساطة هذه صح فيها ال
+
+182
+00:16:20,980 --> 00:16:31,180
+calculations لو كان عندي انا لو
+
+183
+00:16:31,180 --> 00:16:34,140
+كان عندي انا I invest in just only one building
+
+184
+00:16:34,140 --> 00:16:36,980
+انا استثمرت في building واحدة if I decided to
+
+185
+00:16:36,980 --> 00:16:43,020
+investin in more than one stock اذا انا عندى اربع
+
+186
+00:16:43,020 --> 00:16:50,580
+five four five stocks فال R ل ال different stocks
+
+187
+00:16:50,580 --> 00:16:57,280
+is equal the summation of R divided by N مظبوط
+
+188
+00:16:57,280 --> 00:17:00,300
+اللي هو ال average لو كان عندى انا number of
+
+189
+00:17:00,300 --> 00:17:07,550
+stocks R of stocks فبجيب ال summation of Rعلى ال
+
+190
+00:17:07,550 --> 00:17:12,290
+numbers تبعتهم طبعا على العدد تبعتهم هذا بيسموه ال
+
+191
+00:17:12,290 --> 00:17:16,630
+arithmetic هذا إيش بيسموه arithmetic ال arithmetic
+
+192
+00:17:16,630 --> 00:17:24,930
+average طيب this is the case if you invest in
+
+193
+00:17:24,930 --> 00:17:29,570
+stock one, stock two, stock three till stock n
+
+194
+00:17:30,620 --> 00:17:35,100
+العدد معاهم الأسهم جداش العائد تبعهم العائد هو
+
+195
+00:17:35,100 --> 00:17:39,800
+مجموع العواقد على عددهم مظبوط ال average تمام ال
+
+196
+00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:43,820
+average تبعهم okay
+
+197
+00:17:43,820 --> 00:17:47,020
+طيب
+
+198
+00:17:47,020 --> 00:17:52,880
+لو كان أنا عندي نرجع
+
+199
+00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:57,500
+لفكرة العقار لو كان أنا عندي هذا العقار 100 ألف
+
+200
+00:17:57,500 --> 00:17:57,820
+دولار
+
+201
+00:18:00,980 --> 00:18:07,700
+اللي هو B note and I'm thinking what is the rate
+
+202
+00:18:07,700 --> 00:18:12,660
+of return of this building for the next year ندى
+
+203
+00:18:12,660 --> 00:18:16,040
+أعرف العائد للسنة الجاية we don't know exactly
+
+204
+00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,820
+what is the rate of return for the next year نقدرش
+
+205
+00:18:18,820 --> 00:18:21,200
+نعرف بالظبط قداشة rate of return for the next year
+
+206
+00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:26,240
+so we are uncertain about the rate of return for
+
+207
+00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:31,270
+the next yearuncertain يعني غير متأكدين انه جداش
+
+208
+00:18:31,270 --> 00:18:38,450
+العقد بتاعنا ممكن يكون نبيع البيت ب110 ألف يعني
+
+209
+00:18:38,450 --> 00:18:44,390
+ممكن 120 ممكن نخسر 90 و يضلناه وبالتالي بنعطي
+
+210
+00:18:44,390 --> 00:18:50,350
+احتمالاتالبيعه 110 ممكن احتمالنا يكون 50% نبيعه
+
+211
+00:18:50,350 --> 00:18:56,310
+110 ممكن 120 احتمالنا 25% ممكن 90 ألف نبيعه احتمال
+
+212
+00:18:56,310 --> 00:19:03,790
+25 طب what is the expected price سهل نضرب كل واحدة
+
+213
+00:19:03,790 --> 00:19:10,030
+ال bi نضربها في ال price و بنجمعهم مع بعض طب if we
+
+214
+00:19:10,030 --> 00:19:13,850
+invest in the in the stocks اذا احنا بستهتمر في ال
+
+215
+00:19:13,850 --> 00:19:19,630
+stocksand we don't know the expected return for
+
+216
+00:19:19,630 --> 00:19:23,490
+the future يعني احنا بنستثمر في stock now and we
+
+217
+00:19:23,490 --> 00:19:25,710
+want to estimate the rate of return of a
+
+218
+00:19:25,710 --> 00:19:29,010
+particular stock for the future يعني احنا مستثمرين
+
+219
+00:19:29,010 --> 00:19:31,990
+في سهم الآن بدنا نعرف هذا السهم كده يعطينا عائد
+
+220
+00:19:31,990 --> 00:19:35,350
+السنة الجاية nobody knows exactly ماحدش يعرف
+
+221
+00:19:35,350 --> 00:19:40,640
+بالظبط but we try to predict نحاول نتنبأwe try to
+
+222
+00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:44,260
+forecast by using the probability نستخدم
+
+223
+00:19:44,260 --> 00:19:49,100
+الاحتمالات okay so let's see how it works طبعا هذا
+
+224
+00:19:49,100 --> 00:19:51,500
+كله شرحنا ال beginning price و ال ending price
+
+225
+00:19:51,500 --> 00:19:58,400
+okay and I give you the samples okay طيب هلأ نيجي
+
+226
+00:19:58,400 --> 00:19:59,580
+نحكي على الاحتمال
+
+227
+00:20:02,070 --> 00:20:05,010
+the expectation of r we use the expectation of r
+
+228
+00:20:05,010 --> 00:20:09,610
+the expectation of the of the rates of the return
+
+229
+00:20:09,610 --> 00:20:12,810
+for the future إذا ال expectation نستخدمها لفيوتر
+
+230
+00:20:12,810 --> 00:20:16,830
+the question is what is the expected return for
+
+231
+00:20:16,830 --> 00:20:22,160
+the future اتطلعوا على المثال اللي أعطاكواياانه
+
+232
+00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:26,460
+احنا بنضرب ال return بال probability look at it هي
+
+233
+00:20:26,460 --> 00:20:30,520
+is the summation of the probability of the state
+
+234
+00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:38,520
+احتمال الحدوث times the return of the state أخدته
+
+235
+00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:43,760
+هذا برياضية التجارين انا معتقد اه أخدته او إدارة
+
+236
+00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:49,260
+مالية أخدتهمش مهم كتير انه أخدته و ما أخدهوش احنا
+
+237
+00:20:49,260 --> 00:20:53,860
+بنحاول to bridge it to bridge it off to bridge it
+
+238
+00:20:53,860 --> 00:21:00,020
+off يعني نغطي الفجوة اه so we try to do this
+
+239
+00:21:00,020 --> 00:21:03,700
+ببساطة خليني just to summarize be attention here
+
+240
+00:21:03,700 --> 00:21:07,580
+you don't need to memorize لا تحاولوش انك تحفظوا
+
+241
+00:21:07,580 --> 00:21:13,280
+كتير just consider this case خدوا هال مثال البسيط
+
+242
+00:21:14,890 --> 00:21:17,390
+لو احنا if we think to invest in a particular
+
+243
+00:21:17,390 --> 00:21:22,210
+stock for the next year طبعا لما نحكي next year
+
+244
+00:21:22,210 --> 00:21:26,310
+نحكي for the future and you given this information
+
+245
+00:21:26,310 --> 00:21:34,350
+و أعطيناكوا هالمعلومات هذه the expected R and the
+
+246
+00:21:34,350 --> 00:21:39,670
+probability the probability of R to occur يعني
+
+247
+00:21:39,670 --> 00:21:40,830
+احتمال R انه تحدث
+
+248
+00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:51,840
+Okay بحط P probability YR for instance 40% we have
+
+249
+00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,920
+40% and
+
+250
+00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,320
+30
+
+251
+00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:09,380
+% 30% او خليني نسهلهم هان اربعين ناخد خمسة و عشرين
+
+252
+00:22:09,380 --> 00:22:15,820
+بيصير عندنا خمسة و ستين و بيبقى خمسة و تلاتينOkay
+
+253
+00:22:15,820 --> 00:22:20,840
+لازم يكون هدول مجموعهم مقداش؟ مية في المية okay
+
+254
+00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:26,520
+one hundred percent او واحد صحيح okay when the
+
+255
+00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:31,060
+probability forty percent the r we expect are ten
+
+256
+00:22:31,060 --> 00:22:35,420
+percent twenty five we expect seven percent and
+
+257
+00:22:35,420 --> 00:22:37,000
+here we expect four percent
+
+258
+00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:45,220
+القروش هو بيحكي expectation of R is equal to
+
+259
+00:22:45,220 --> 00:22:52,900
+summation of VI times RI مش مشكلة لو في كتب تستخدم
+
+260
+00:22:52,900 --> 00:22:57,960
+I في تستخدم S يعني بيه S or بيه I is the same يعني
+
+261
+00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:06,200
+احتمال في ال return طيب بنشوف ال B times ال R
+
+262
+00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:07,600
+احتمال
+
+263
+00:23:09,420 --> 00:23:19,160
+0.10×0.40 0.047×0.25 0.07×0
+
+264
+00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:24,320
+.25 0
+
+265
+00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:31,880
+.0175
+
+266
+00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,320
+0.0175
+
+267
+00:23:41,460 --> 00:23:50,220
+.014 طب summation اجمعهم مع بعض 0
+
+268
+00:23:50,220 --> 00:23:53,640
+.0715
+
+269
+00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:59,600
+يعني بتطلع الجوال اللي هو 7.15% إذا ال expected R
+
+270
+00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:07,020
+is equal to 7.15% طبعا البنات اللي معاهم ال
+
+271
+00:24:07,020 --> 00:24:12,540
+calculators يتأكدوا من ال ..من ال results طبعا و
+
+272
+00:24:12,540 --> 00:24:14,520
+البنات اللي معاهم مش calculator لما يرجعوا البيت
+
+273
+00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,800
+يتأكدوا من ال results لأنها سؤال جاي في الامتحانة
+
+274
+00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:23,120
+I know this is simple but when you go to exam
+
+275
+00:24:23,120 --> 00:24:29,180
+things بصير أشي صعب so the expected return this is
+
+276
+00:24:29,180 --> 00:24:31,840
+the expected return so far we talk about the
+
+277
+00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:38,580
+expected return and we don't talk about the risk
+
+278
+00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,900
+ماحكناش؟ عن المخاطر what is risk؟ مين بيقوللي إيش
+
+279
+00:24:45,900 --> 00:24:51,240
+ال risk؟ حكيناها في chapter one و chapter two what
+
+280
+00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:57,460
+is risk؟ إيش ال risk؟ شو المخاطر؟ what .. what is
+
+281
+00:24:57,460 --> 00:25:04,560
+the risk in investment؟ شو المخاطر؟ what is risk؟
+
+282
+00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,720
+و احنا قاعدين نحكي risk و risk و هذا و مخاطر و من
+
+283
+00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:19,900
+السنة الفاتة اهبس انخفاض الاسعار هذه المخاطر ايوة
+
+284
+00:25:19,900 --> 00:25:23,740
+هي اهم اشي is uncertainty ال risk هي is
+
+285
+00:25:23,740 --> 00:25:29,180
+uncertainty to get the expected rate of return لان
+
+286
+00:25:29,180 --> 00:25:37,040
+احنا مش متأكدين انه هيحدث ال return ولا لأ طيبلو
+
+287
+00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,840
+جينا احنا from the .. from the charge point of
+
+288
+00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:49,120
+view طلعوا ايش ال risk طلعوا
+
+289
+00:25:49,120 --> 00:25:54,340
+على ال ..
+
+290
+00:25:54,340 --> 00:26:01,640
+طلعوا هم لو جينا احنا أخدنا الخط هذا و احنا اليوم
+
+291
+00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:07,040
+كام التاريخ اليوم اتنين و عشرينلو قلناكوا بتقدروا
+
+292
+00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:15,460
+تتنبأوا ال 23 ايش هيكون السعر؟ ممكن تتنبأوا ولا مش
+
+293
+00:26:15,460 --> 00:26:20,060
+ممكن؟ طلعوا على الخط المستقيم مين بيقدر يقولي 23
+
+294
+00:26:20,060 --> 00:26:28,840
+وين احتمال يكون السعر؟ فحط خط عليه، شوف الخط يعني،
+
+295
+00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:37,180
+بالظبط، ليش؟ لأن هنا ال uncertaintyit's very low
+
+296
+00:26:37,180 --> 00:26:40,460
+ال uncertainty يعني احتمال عدم التأكد منخفضة يعني
+
+297
+00:26:40,460 --> 00:26:46,000
+خاطر منخفضة طيب احفظتوا هذا الرسمة ناخد رسمة اخرى
+
+298
+00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:52,520
+اذا هنا التأكد منخفض ترجع
+
+299
+00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,080
+يا ميا لل videos طيب
+
+300
+00:27:05,470 --> 00:27:12,030
+طيب احنا هلا ب 22 okay 22 مين
+
+301
+00:27:12,030 --> 00:27:18,130
+بيقدر يعمل ليه؟ هي موجودة
+
+302
+00:27:18,130 --> 00:27:23,650
+هيك okay إيش رأيك؟ بتأكد يعني؟ بس لما فات ما طلعت
+
+303
+00:27:23,650 --> 00:27:26,990
+كانت احتمال تأكد عالي صح؟ بس هلجيت إيش رأيك؟ تعالي
+
+304
+00:27:26,990 --> 00:27:31,430
+أعطيني ال possible وارجيني أشوف عشان نعرف what it
+
+305
+00:27:31,430 --> 00:27:32,370
+means uncertainty
+
+306
+00:27:35,590 --> 00:27:40,790
+متأكدة؟ لأ طب اخدت ال option التاني option التاني
+
+307
+00:27:40,790 --> 00:27:46,530
+ايوة يعني فيه انا خليني احتمالاتي اعمل مقاطع مقاطع
+
+308
+00:27:46,530 --> 00:27:52,910
+اعمل مقاطع على دي لأ مقاطع تاني واضح ايوة اذا فيه
+
+309
+00:27:52,910 --> 00:27:56,770
+انا احتمالين شوفوا في احتمالين the return is going
+
+310
+00:27:56,770 --> 00:28:02,060
+up or the return is going downإذا ال uncertainty
+
+311
+00:28:02,060 --> 00:28:07,440
+هان يا بنات ال uncertainty comparing with the
+
+312
+00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:13,140
+previous chart is lower or higher is higher just
+
+313
+00:28:13,140 --> 00:28:16,220
+depict this احفظوا الرسمة هالي خلينا ناخد رسمة
+
+314
+00:28:16,220 --> 00:28:23,440
+أخرى ليه يا شماي رسمتي ايه هى هى هى
+
+315
+00:28:30,130 --> 00:28:36,350
+مش سامع جولة انا يوم اتنين و عشرين اللي هو اليوم
+
+316
+00:28:36,350 --> 00:28:39,470
+لنا نعمل expectations لبكرا ل tomorrow اللي هو
+
+317
+00:28:39,470 --> 00:28:43,530
+تلاتة و عشرين فتلاتة و عشرين مش عارفين يعني هي حسب
+
+318
+00:28:43,530 --> 00:28:50,150
+ما حكت أسماء أسماء حمدية حسب ما حكت كانت احتمال
+
+319
+00:28:50,150 --> 00:28:55,570
+انه to go up or to go down مظبوط فمش متأكد لكن لما
+
+320
+00:28:55,570 --> 00:28:59,190
+طلعت فأنت ما حكت انه with a certainو .. و the
+
+321
+00:28:59,190 --> 00:29:03,010
+certain level احتمالات او احتمالات التأكد كانت
+
+322
+00:29:03,010 --> 00:29:09,830
+اعلى تمام؟ okay ناخد
+
+323
+00:29:09,830 --> 00:29:13,330
+مثال اخر ايش رأيكم؟
+
+324
+00:29:27,410 --> 00:29:34,090
+طيب بدنا نهلة إيه إيش رأيك؟ فوق؟ طيب؟ اعمل .. اعمل
+
+325
+00:29:34,090 --> 00:29:37,530
+.. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+326
+00:29:37,530 --> 00:29:37,530
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+327
+00:29:37,530 --> 00:29:37,550
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+328
+00:29:37,550 --> 00:29:38,330
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+329
+00:29:38,330 --> 00:29:38,330
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+330
+00:29:38,330 --> 00:29:38,330
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+331
+00:29:38,330 --> 00:29:38,950
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+332
+00:29:38,950 --> 00:29:47,630
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+333
+00:29:47,630 --> 00:29:56,690
+اعم
+
+334
+00:29:57,540 --> 00:30:02,600
+يعني لو احنا شوفنا التشارت الأول خلينا to .. to
+
+335
+00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,360
+get the pictures back .. to get the pictures back
+
+336
+00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,600
+ايش يعني to get the pictures back؟ خلينا نراجع
+
+337
+00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:12,140
+الصور التلاتة اللي احنا .. نحطهم هيك قدامها مع بعض
+
+338
+00:30:12,140 --> 00:30:15,260
+and to compare between the .. شوف
+
+339
+00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:30,480
+طبعا الصورة الأولى هي هذه الصورة الأولى احمد
+
+340
+00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:34,980
+التكييف عالي كتير خلاص switch it off اطفيه اطفيه
+
+341
+00:30:34,980 --> 00:30:38,620
+خلاص
+
+342
+00:30:38,620 --> 00:30:48,420
+طبعا
+
+343
+00:30:48,420 --> 00:30:50,840
+خلينا together picture back
+
+344
+00:30:53,920 --> 00:31:00,840
+أخدنا هذه و قولنا الاحتمال تأكد في هنا high
+
+345
+00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:06,100
+certainty تأكد
+
+346
+00:31:06,100 --> 00:31:12,080
+عالي في هنا moderate certainty و هنا high
+
+347
+00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:21,410
+uncertainty او بيسموها low certainty okay طيبhow
+
+348
+00:31:21,410 --> 00:31:24,690
+we measure this طب كيف احنا احنا الرسمة هيك okay
+
+349
+00:31:24,690 --> 00:31:29,910
+بس لكن كيف بدنا نقيسها هذا المعادل نقيس ال
+
+350
+00:31:29,910 --> 00:31:33,570
+expectations return نقيس ال expectations return
+
+351
+00:31:33,570 --> 00:31:39,810
+مابتقسش ال sigma طيب طالع علينا طب احنا لو حسبنا
+
+352
+00:31:39,810 --> 00:31:44,970
+ال average تبع هذا و بدنا نشوفأيش بيصير ال
+
+353
+00:31:44,970 --> 00:31:48,830
+deviation؟ ال deviation يعني النقاط خارج ال
+
+354
+00:31:48,830 --> 00:31:53,310
+average مافيش نقاط zero إذا هل ال uncertainty سو
+
+355
+00:31:53,310 --> 00:31:59,890
+سفر؟ يعني ال certainty سو one hundred percent طيب
+
+356
+00:31:59,890 --> 00:32:03,390
+خلينا ناخد ال average تبع هذا الخط ال average هذا
+
+357
+00:32:03,390 --> 00:32:08,880
+هو ال average تبع الخط الأزرقهذا ال average بنشوف
+
+358
+00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,620
+احنا فيه قيم تحت ال average و فيه قيم أعلى من ال
+
+359
+00:32:11,620 --> 00:32:15,820
+average هذا ال average هو ال certainty هو المؤكد و
+
+360
+00:32:15,820 --> 00:32:23,960
+هدوله قيم أعلى و أقل الفرج الفرج بين الفرج hand
+
+361
+00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:32,560
+شوفوا بنحسب الفرق قدر كده؟ كل ما بكون الفرج كبير
+
+362
+00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:38,900
+كل ما كان فيه risk أعلىطبعا فكيف بنقيسه هذا بنقيسه
+
+363
+00:32:38,900 --> 00:32:42,760
+ب sigma standard
+
+364
+00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,200
+or standard deviation او بنقيسه ب standard
+
+365
+00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:54,340
+deviation طب خينا ناخد هذا ناخد هذا اخدنا ال
+
+366
+00:32:54,340 --> 00:32:58,840
+average زيهم اخدنا ال average طب ال average زي ما
+
+367
+00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:06,250
+حكينا هو الفرقبين القيم كم تبعد عن ال average يعني
+
+368
+00:33:06,250 --> 00:33:09,870
+القيم كم تبعد عن ال average هذا هو بتلاحظوا
+
+369
+00:33:09,870 --> 00:33:13,890
+المسافة هذه قارنوها مع المسافة هذه أكبر ولا أكبر
+
+370
+00:33:13,890 --> 00:33:20,290
+إذا ال uncertainty أعلى إذا ال sigma هتكون أعلى ال
+
+371
+00:33:20,290 --> 00:33:24,630
+sigma إذا بتقارنه sigma بين هان و sigma هان كل
+
+372
+00:33:24,630 --> 00:33:29,490
+النقاط على الخط هان صفر طب sigma هان نفترض تكون
+
+373
+00:33:29,490 --> 00:33:37,620
+مثلا 6%ال sigma هتكون أعلى من 6% فإذا كل ما احنا
+
+374
+00:33:37,620 --> 00:33:41,480
+ال fluctuation هذا fluctuation ايش اسمه
+
+375
+00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:48,160
+fluctuation okay fluctuation هذا التذبذب كل ما
+
+376
+00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:53,860
+بيزيد شوفته تخطيط القلب كل ما بيصير احنا بنعرف انه
+
+377
+00:33:53,860 --> 00:33:59,100
+ضربات القلب كل ما بتكون غير منتظمةبكون في .. فششي
+
+378
+00:33:59,100 --> 00:34:03,840
+monotic فششي انتظام بدربات القلب فهذا بيكون المريض
+
+379
+00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:08,940
+في خطر okay we don't know فإذا كان الوضع بهذا
+
+380
+00:34:08,940 --> 00:34:15,980
+الشكل هذا بيكون هذا في خطر لكن إذا كان الوضع طبيعي
+
+381
+00:34:15,980 --> 00:34:22,560
+مثلا مثل هك ف okay هذا طبيعي يعني في ..انتظام في
+
+382
+00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:27,320
+ضربات القلب بس ملاحظها ان مافيش انتظام في risk
+
+383
+00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:32,660
+عالي جدا فكل ما بتعدد القيم شوفوا القيم كده بعيدة
+
+384
+00:34:32,660 --> 00:34:36,980
+عن ال average على المتوسط كل ما القيم بعددت على
+
+385
+00:34:36,980 --> 00:34:42,580
+المتوسط كل ما ال sigma كبرت كل ما زادت المخاطر how
+
+386
+00:34:42,580 --> 00:34:45,820
+we calculate sigma كيف احنا ممكن نحسب ال sigma
+
+387
+00:34:45,820 --> 00:34:54,610
+ببساطة ال sigmaسيجما تربيع is اللي هو فاكري ان ال
+
+388
+00:34:54,610 --> 00:35:06,050
+R minus R R minus expectation of R ال B I مجموعة
+
+389
+00:35:06,050 --> 00:35:14,130
+مجموعة ال B I times R minus expectation of R هذا
+
+390
+00:35:14,130 --> 00:35:19,620
+هو السيجما تربيع طبعا سوري هنا power twoهو اتنين
+
+391
+00:35:19,620 --> 00:35:23,300
+أخدتوه هذا بال statistics بالإحصاء .. بإحصاء
+
+392
+00:35:23,300 --> 00:35:27,720
+أخدتوه بالرياضيات التجاريين أخدتوه في financial
+
+393
+00:35:27,720 --> 00:35:31,020
+management okay فإن شاء الله next meeting انا
+
+394
+00:35:31,020 --> 00:35:37,160
+أحاول أعملكم سؤال عليه نحله كله مع بعض okay فهذا
+
+395
+00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:45,240
+.. هاي معطيكوا لي فعل هان طلعوا هان ال probability
+
+396
+00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:51,520
+نفس المعادلة اللي اعطيتك إياها نحسب ال ER حسبتلك
+
+397
+00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:55,380
+إياها بالمثال السابق okay بتطلع هذا الجواب هل لما
+
+398
+00:35:55,380 --> 00:35:58,440
+نحسب ال sigma تربيع نفس المعادلة اللي اعطيتك إياها
+
+399
+00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:03,880
+okay ال standard deviation هو شوفتوا احنا بنستخدم
+
+400
+00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,600
+ال sigma or standard deviation
+
+401
+00:36:09,430 --> 00:36:14,650
+نعيد نفس المثال و بنروح ال probability R minus I
+
+402
+00:36:14,650 --> 00:36:18,270
+بترجعوه في البيت و بتشوفوا انتوا كيف الوضع طلع
+
+403
+00:36:18,270 --> 00:36:24,510
+معاكم وصلنا لعند number 22 في حد عندك سؤال يا
+
+404
+00:36:24,510 --> 00:36:24,950
+بنات؟
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/4qmkBLfi5sY_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/4qmkBLfi5sY_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..bad0581ff8bedc6ddc9e66df6afd139bdcb7ed0f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/4qmkBLfi5sY_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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and some instructions on how to trade in the financial markets يعني هي في بعض ال instructions بعض التعليمات والتوجيهات اللي كيف أنه احنا نستخدمه في الأسواق المالية it mainly depends on the .. the .. the regulations and instructions in the United States", "tokens": [270, 5974, 512, 12563, 293, 512, 9415, 322, 577, 281, 4923, 294, 264, 4669, 8383, 37495, 22653, 39896, 8978, 45030, 11242, 2423, 9415, 45030, 11242, 16712, 3615, 20292, 2304, 9307, 16070, 2655, 29245, 1829, 3224, 9307, 13672, 1829, 9122, 33911, 14739, 3224, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 14851, 9778, 40448, 3224, 8978, 16247, 3794, 14407, 4587, 9673, 6027, 10632, 309, 8704, 5946, 322, 264, 4386, 264, 4386, 264, 12563, 293, 9415, 294, 264, 2824, 3040], "avg_logprob": -0.16645833611488342, "compression_ratio": 1.59009009009009, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 120.27, "end": 120.53, "word": "it", "probability": 0.7744140625}, {"start": 120.53, "end": 120.85, "word": " includes", "probability": 0.78955078125}, {"start": 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هبنحكي فيها هي مطبقة في صور خلاصين الأوراق المالية so we don't have .. we .. we don't have major differences between the regulations applied in the United States and the regulations applied in the .. in the .. in the Palestine Stock Exchange", "tokens": [3224, 1829, 39894, 34268, 2304, 3215, 15844, 2423, 12563, 9673, 29245, 23328, 3660, 20666, 2824, 3040, 4461, 881, 295, 613, 12563, 366, 6456, 294, 264, 33030, 17857, 31169, 28242, 5551, 17082, 46152, 2423, 12563, 29538, 13672, 1829, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8032, 3555, 1863, 5016, 4117, 1829, 8978, 11296, 39896, 3714, 9566, 3555, 28671, 8978, 20328, 13063, 16490, 1211, 33546, 9957, 16247, 13063, 995, 4587, 9673, 6027, 10632, 370, 321, 500, 380, 362, 4386, 321, 4386, 321, 500, 380, 362, 2563, 7300, 1296, 264, 12563, 6456, 294, 264, 2824, 3040, 293, 264, 12563, 6456, 294, 264, 4386, 294, 264, 4386, 294, 264, 33030, 17857, 31169], "avg_logprob": -0.1465773866290138, "compression_ratio": 1.8007246376811594, "no_speech_prob": 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التفاصيل so just to summarize any financial .. any security should go through the primary markets okay then after that to the secondary markets", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 6156, 47432, 4724, 32887, 5016, 15844, 2423, 11396, 2142, 21136, 30543, 6024, 104, 7649, 45865, 5296, 15042, 7251, 9566, 3555, 4587, 14407, 28242, 9673, 3615, 47302, 13546, 13672, 1829, 3714, 9566, 1211, 37746, 3660, 9154, 13672, 1829, 39896, 2423, 4386, 2423, 4386, 2423, 12564, 34, 12564, 34, 41850, 8032, 1863, 46309, 5016, 8978, 2423, 28820, 10943, 23758, 8978, 16712, 5172, 33546, 26895, 370, 445, 281, 20858, 604, 4669, 4386, 604, 3825, 820, 352, 807, 264, 6194, 8383, 1392, 550, 934, 300, 281, 264, 11396, 8383], "avg_logprob": -0.17720171182670377, "compression_ratio": 1.5393700787401574, "no_speech_prob": 4.172325134277344e-07, "words": [{"start": 346.17, "end": 346.51, "word": "يعني", "probability": 0.955078125}, {"start": 346.51, "end": 346.97, "word": " فقط", "probability": 0.9921875}, {"start": 346.97, "end": 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بال the rule of the investment bank نرجع طلعه هان", "tokens": [3555, 1863, 4587, 8592, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 1975, 33753, 4117, 9640, 4724, 3794, 6225, 8592, 7649, 8717, 11242, 27842, 16472, 8032, 2304, 48812, 6027, 14407, 20449, 8315, 6225, 8592, 7649, 8717, 11242, 27842, 16472, 25124, 31747, 3660, 29538, 6055, 3555, 4587, 7578, 4724, 11296, 9673, 14851, 2407, 7578, 34105, 1392, 833, 19868, 12174, 36150, 13412, 2407, 10632, 9122, 8315, 8717, 38251, 3615, 20666, 264, 4978, 295, 264, 6078, 3765, 8717, 47341, 3615, 23032, 1211, 3615, 3224, 8032, 7649], "avg_logprob": -0.28281248584389684, "compression_ratio": 1.4866310160427807, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1205.85, "end": 1206.33, "word": "بنقش", "probability": 0.3809051513671875}, {"start": 1206.33, "end": 1206.57, "word": " نحكي", "probability": 0.9739990234375}, {"start": 1206.57, "end": 1207.05, "word": " احتكار", "probability": 0.9736328125}, {"start": 1207.05, "end": 1207.63, "word": " بس", 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تبقى", "probability": 0.984619140625}, {"start": 1213.85, "end": 1214.17, "word": " بها", "probability": 0.6407470703125}, {"start": 1214.17, "end": 1214.61, "word": " المستوى", "probability": 0.9549560546875}, {"start": 1214.61, "end": 1214.83, "word": " هنا", "probability": 0.415771484375}, {"start": 1214.83, "end": 1215.83, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.32080078125}, {"start": 1215.83, "end": 1221.25, "word": " underwriting", "probability": 0.6141357421875}, {"start": 1221.25, "end": 1222.33, "word": " قبل", "probability": 0.852294921875}, {"start": 1222.33, "end": 1222.55, "word": " شوية", "probability": 0.943359375}, {"start": 1222.55, "end": 1222.69, "word": " كنا", "probability": 0.98876953125}, {"start": 1222.69, "end": 1223.13, "word": " نسمع", "probability": 0.9798177083333334}, {"start": 1223.13, "end": 1223.41, "word": " بال", "probability": 0.442138671875}, {"start": 1223.41, "end": 1224.67, "word": " the", "probability": 0.51318359375}, {"start": 1224.67, "end": 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0.94775390625}, {"start": 2068.56, "end": 2068.78, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.98388671875}, {"start": 2068.78, "end": 2070.12, "word": " بالانتظار،", "probability": 0.9283040364583334}, {"start": 2070.12, "end": 2070.5, "word": " بكونوا", "probability": 0.85302734375}, {"start": 2070.5, "end": 2070.7, "word": " هبقى", "probability": 0.650634765625}, {"start": 2070.7, "end": 2071.34, "word": " بالانتظار", "probability": 0.99501953125}, {"start": 2071.34, "end": 2072.12, "word": " لازم", "probability": 0.8277180989583334}, {"start": 2072.12, "end": 2072.36, "word": " إنه", "probability": 0.70703125}, {"start": 2072.36, "end": 2072.6, "word": " يكون", "probability": 0.994140625}, {"start": 2072.6, "end": 2073.18, "word": " عندهم", "probability": 0.996337890625}, {"start": 2073.18, "end": 2073.82, "word": " وضع", "probability": 0.9933268229166666}, {"start": 2073.82, "end": 2074.1, "word": " مالي", "probability": 0.78466796875}, {"start": 2074.1, "end": 2074.44, "word": " كويس", "probability": 0.9943033854166666}, {"start": 2074.44, "end": 2074.54, "word": " و", "probability": 0.86279296875}, {"start": 2074.54, "end": 2074.78, "word": " لازم", "probability": 0.99462890625}, {"start": 2074.78, "end": 2074.96, "word": " يكون", "probability": 0.99462890625}, {"start": 2074.96, "end": 2075.44, "word": " عندهم", "probability": 0.99609375}, {"start": 2075.44, "end": 2077.74, "word": " تقارير", "probability": 0.9853515625}, {"start": 2077.74, "end": 2078.4, "word": " مالية", "probability": 0.9619140625}, {"start": 2078.4, "end": 2078.94, "word": " جيدة", "probability": 0.9710286458333334}, {"start": 2078.94, "end": 2079.3, "word": " و", "probability": 0.7158203125}, {"start": 2079.3, "end": 2079.54, "word": " بعد", "probability": 0.96533203125}, {"start": 2079.54, "end": 2079.88, "word": " هيك", "probability": 0.960693359375}, {"start": 2079.88, "end": 2080.26, "word": " بروحوا", "probability": 0.9305419921875}, {"start": 2080.26, "end": 2080.5, "word": " على", "probability": 0.94189453125}, {"start": 2080.5, "end": 2081.1, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.970703125}, {"start": 2081.1, "end": 2081.48, "word": " secondary", "probability": 0.95947265625}, {"start": 2081.48, "end": 2081.94, "word": " markets", "probability": 0.5556640625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 86, "seek": 211515, "start": 2086.73, "end": 2115.15, "text": "بال .. اه بي .. بيصير .. طبعا بيفرق كتير لإنه ممنوع يصير trade ممنوع يصير التجارة في أسهمها بيصير لما يقع .. اه بالظبط بيصير .. بيصير أعمالية بيع داخلية بين المستثمرين، تمام؟ لكن مش بالطريقة اللي بيصير فيها ال secondary markets، تمام؟ طيب طب ماعش الحل، احنا ب .. we just end هذا الحل", "tokens": [3555, 6027, 4386, 1975, 3224, 4724, 1829, 4386, 4724, 1829, 9381, 13546, 4386, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 4724, 33911, 2288, 4587, 9122, 2655, 13546, 5296, 28814, 1863, 3224, 3714, 27842, 45367, 7251, 9381, 13546, 4923, 3714, 27842, 45367, 7251, 9381, 13546, 16712, 7435, 9640, 3660, 8978, 5551, 3794, 16095, 11296, 4724, 1829, 9381, 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2088.09, "end": 2088.09, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.515625}, {"start": 2088.09, "end": 2088.55, "word": " بيصير", "probability": 0.9747314453125}, {"start": 2088.55, "end": 2088.77, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.54931640625}, {"start": 2088.77, "end": 2089.35, "word": " طبعا", "probability": 0.990234375}, {"start": 2089.35, "end": 2089.67, "word": " بيفرق", "probability": 0.7967529296875}, {"start": 2089.67, "end": 2089.99, "word": " كتير", "probability": 0.9430338541666666}, {"start": 2089.99, "end": 2090.43, "word": " لإنه", "probability": 0.73297119140625}, {"start": 2090.43, "end": 2091.09, "word": " ممنوع", "probability": 0.9557291666666666}, {"start": 2091.09, "end": 2091.27, "word": " يصير", "probability": 0.9856770833333334}, {"start": 2091.27, "end": 2091.67, "word": " trade", "probability": 0.85791015625}, {"start": 2091.67, "end": 2092.87, "word": " ممنوع", "probability": 0.9176432291666666}, {"start": 2092.87, "end": 2093.09, "word": " يصير", "probability": 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"probability": 0.9937744140625}, {"start": 2101.05, "end": 2101.47, "word": " أعمالية", "probability": 0.7344970703125}, {"start": 2101.47, "end": 2101.71, "word": " بيع", "probability": 0.843017578125}, {"start": 2101.71, "end": 2102.21, "word": " داخلية", "probability": 0.984375}, {"start": 2102.21, "end": 2102.39, "word": " بين", "probability": 0.986328125}, {"start": 2102.39, "end": 2103.43, "word": " المستثمرين،", "probability": 0.8954264322916666}, {"start": 2103.43, "end": 2104.33, "word": " تمام؟", "probability": 0.9285481770833334}, {"start": 2104.33, "end": 2104.61, "word": " لكن", "probability": 0.9287109375}, {"start": 2104.61, "end": 2104.95, "word": " مش", "probability": 0.9794921875}, {"start": 2104.95, "end": 2105.41, "word": " بالطريقة", "probability": 0.98583984375}, {"start": 2105.41, "end": 2105.51, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.808837890625}, {"start": 2105.51, "end": 2105.69, "word": " بيصير", "probability": 0.97265625}, {"start": 2105.69, "end": 2105.91, 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/4qmkBLfi5sY_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/4qmkBLfi5sY_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..86c206c6ebe39eccd03bc9b9fa3893d6287f7c9d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/4qmkBLfi5sY_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2036 @@
+1
+00:00:21,340 --> 00:00:25,640
+اليوم احنا هنحكي ب chapter three which .. which
+
+2
+00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:31,620
+about how securities are traded okay خلينا ناخد بس
+
+3
+00:00:31,620 --> 00:00:36,420
+ملخص ل chapter one و chapter two عشان احنا نمشي ب
+
+4
+00:00:36,420 --> 00:00:41,660
+chapter three ب chapter one we talk about the ..
+
+5
+00:00:41,660 --> 00:00:43,960
+the main differences between financial assets and
+
+6
+00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:49,180
+real assetsوالقصة الثالثة تحتوي على ثلاث نقطة
+
+7
+00:00:49,180 --> 00:00:52,160
+الرئيسية والأولى هي الفرق الرئيسي بين الواحدة
+
+8
+00:00:52,160 --> 00:00:55,240
+المالية والواحدة الحقيقية والنقطة الثانية هي
+
+9
+00:00:55,240 --> 00:01:00,240
+التعامل بين الواحدة المالية والواحدة الاقتصادية أو
+
+10
+00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:04,280
+الواحدة المالية الاقتصادية والنقطة الثالثة مرتبطة
+
+11
+00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:10,550
+مع كيفThe investors process their investments or
+
+12
+00:01:10,550 --> 00:01:13,390
+the investment process So these are the three main
+
+13
+00:01:13,390 --> 00:01:17,270
+points we talk about in chapter one In chapter two
+
+14
+00:01:17,270 --> 00:01:21,250
+it is mainly focused on the main difference
+
+15
+00:01:21,250 --> 00:01:24,330
+between the money market instruments and the
+
+16
+00:01:24,330 --> 00:01:26,810
+capital market instruments So you should know
+
+17
+00:01:26,810 --> 00:01:30,030
+about the main characteristics of the money market
+
+18
+00:01:30,030 --> 00:01:33,070
+instruments or tools and the capital market
+
+19
+00:01:33,070 --> 00:01:36,340
+instruments and toolstoday I'm going to talk about
+
+20
+00:01:36,340 --> 00:01:40,520
+how these securities which is discussed in chapter
+
+21
+00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:42,920
+one and chapter two how these securities are
+
+22
+00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,440
+traded in the financial markets يعني كيف هاي ال
+
+23
+00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:51,500
+tools هاي ال instruments كيف احنا تم تدولها في
+
+24
+00:01:51,500 --> 00:01:55,520
+الأسواق المالية okay which is more practical
+
+25
+00:01:55,520 --> 00:02:01,130
+chapter هذا chapter practicalit includes some
+
+26
+00:02:01,130 --> 00:02:04,150
+regulations and some instructions on how to trade
+
+27
+00:02:04,150 --> 00:02:06,410
+in the financial markets يعني هي في بعض ال
+
+28
+00:02:06,410 --> 00:02:11,970
+instructions بعض التعليمات والتوجيهات اللي كيف أنه
+
+29
+00:02:11,970 --> 00:02:16,170
+احنا نستخدمه في الأسواق المالية it mainly depends
+
+30
+00:02:16,170 --> 00:02:19,130
+on the .. the .. the regulations and instructions
+
+31
+00:02:19,130 --> 00:02:21,990
+in the United Statesهي بتعتمد على ال regulations
+
+32
+00:02:21,990 --> 00:02:25,010
+الموجودة بال United States however most of these
+
+33
+00:02:25,010 --> 00:02:27,590
+regulations are applied in the Palestine Stock
+
+34
+00:02:27,590 --> 00:02:30,970
+Exchange كل أغلب ال regulations هذه اللي احنا
+
+35
+00:02:30,970 --> 00:02:33,670
+هبنحكي فيها هي مطبقة في صور خلاصين الأوراق المالية
+
+36
+00:02:33,670 --> 00:02:37,010
+so we don't have .. we .. we don't have major
+
+37
+00:02:37,010 --> 00:02:40,150
+differences between the regulations applied in the
+
+38
+00:02:40,150 --> 00:02:42,830
+United States and the regulations applied in the
+
+39
+00:02:42,830 --> 00:02:46,320
+.. in the .. in the Palestine Stock ExchangeSo
+
+40
+00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:49,540
+don't get confused about these regulations So
+
+41
+00:02:49,540 --> 00:02:53,300
+these regulations mainly important for the
+
+42
+00:02:53,300 --> 00:02:56,120
+investors because they should consider these
+
+43
+00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,660
+regulations before taking any action in the
+
+44
+00:02:58,660 --> 00:03:02,860
+position يعني هم المستثمرين لازم ياخدوا بالهم من
+
+45
+00:03:02,860 --> 00:03:06,860
+هذه ال regulations قبل ما هم يروحوا يفكروا
+
+46
+00:03:06,860 --> 00:03:09,720
+بالاستثمارات So our subject today is how
+
+47
+00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:13,160
+securities are traded So I will give you
+
+48
+00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:19,400
+The main difference between the primary market and
+
+49
+00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:23,260
+the secondary market which is the first important
+
+50
+00:03:23,260 --> 00:03:24,660
+point in this chapter
+
+51
+00:03:31,170 --> 00:03:35,890
+the first thing how firms issue securities كيف
+
+52
+00:03:35,890 --> 00:03:43,350
+الشركات بتصدر الأوراق المالية اي سوق مالي في
+
+53
+00:03:43,350 --> 00:03:48,710
+العالم او اي ورقة مالية لازم تكون فيها two steps
+
+54
+00:03:48,710 --> 00:03:51,370
+to be in the financial markets لازم يكون في two
+
+55
+00:03:51,370 --> 00:03:54,390
+steps or two stages two stages to be in the
+
+56
+00:03:54,390 --> 00:03:58,430
+financial markets لازم تمر في مرحلتينI'm talking
+
+57
+00:03:58,430 --> 00:04:01,690
+about the public limited companies I'm not talking
+
+58
+00:04:01,690 --> 00:04:04,550
+about the private limited company أنا بحكي عن
+
+59
+00:04:04,550 --> 00:04:06,930
+الشركات المساهمة العامة I'm not talking about the
+
+60
+00:04:06,930 --> 00:04:09,330
+private limited company ومابحكيش عن الشركات
+
+61
+00:04:09,330 --> 00:04:12,010
+المساهمة المحدودة okay I think this is in the
+
+62
+00:04:12,010 --> 00:04:15,450
+business research or in the business studies you
+
+63
+00:04:15,450 --> 00:04:18,170
+have a good knowledge on the main differences
+
+64
+00:04:18,170 --> 00:04:21,950
+between the corporations so I don't want to go
+
+65
+00:04:21,950 --> 00:04:25,390
+back to the businessstudies so in your free time
+
+66
+00:04:25,390 --> 00:04:28,210
+you can go back and read about the main
+
+67
+00:04:28,210 --> 00:04:31,630
+differences of these corporations يعني هذا الموضوع
+
+68
+00:04:31,630 --> 00:04:35,110
+أنه احنا هنحكي عن شركات مساهمة عامة مش هنحكي عن
+
+69
+00:04:35,110 --> 00:04:38,010
+شركات مساهمة محدودة شركات مساهمة محدودة و other
+
+70
+00:04:38,010 --> 00:04:42,670
+types of corporations و الأنواع الأخرى من الشركات
+
+71
+00:04:42,670 --> 00:04:46,010
+مثل ال solid trader and others هي أصلا أنت درستها
+
+72
+00:04:46,010 --> 00:04:49,310
+أنت درستوها في دراسات تجارية ففي الوقت الضائع في
+
+73
+00:04:49,310 --> 00:04:54,220
+الوقت ال ..نحكي ال free time تبعكم ممكن ترجعوا
+
+74
+00:04:54,220 --> 00:04:57,940
+لدراسات تجارية and you are you seeking the
+
+75
+00:04:57,940 --> 00:05:03,240
+knowledge from there okay so I'm
+
+76
+00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:06,680
+talking about the two stages the first stage any
+
+77
+00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:11,160
+security must be in the primary market this is the
+
+78
+00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:13,940
+first thing any security it doesn't matter if this
+
+79
+00:05:13,940 --> 00:05:16,480
+security is issued by the government by
+
+80
+00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:21,060
+corporation by any other institutionit must be go
+
+81
+00:05:21,060 --> 00:05:24,700
+through the primary markets then after the primary
+
+82
+00:05:24,700 --> 00:05:29,920
+market it go or it might go to the secondary
+
+83
+00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:33,740
+markets why I say it might go because it is not
+
+84
+00:05:33,740 --> 00:05:37,400
+necessary that all of the securities will go to
+
+85
+00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:42,480
+the secondary markets unless unless they meet the
+
+86
+00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,700
+regulations and the instructions of the financial
+
+87
+00:05:44,700 --> 00:05:49,510
+marketsيعني فقط بروح على ال secondary market السوق
+
+88
+00:05:49,510 --> 00:05:55,470
+الثانوي لما يطبقوا كل المعايير اللي مطلوبة من اللي
+
+89
+00:05:55,470 --> 00:06:00,630
+هي ال .. ال .. ال ESC ESC أنا هنشرح في الكلام هذا
+
+90
+00:06:00,630 --> 00:06:03,790
+في التفاصيل so just to summarize any financial ..
+
+91
+00:06:03,790 --> 00:06:06,950
+any security should go through the primary markets
+
+92
+00:06:06,950 --> 00:06:11,550
+okay then after that to the secondary markets
+
+93
+00:06:15,570 --> 00:06:18,570
+The secondary market is the normal market that you
+
+94
+00:06:18,570 --> 00:06:22,290
+are talking about هو الشكل العادى اللي هو ال ..
+
+95
+00:06:22,290 --> 00:06:24,870
+اللي هو السوق العادي اللي احنا بنعرفه دائما في
+
+96
+00:06:24,870 --> 00:06:28,450
+الأخبار اللي هو نحكي عن Dow Jones، نحكي عن NASDAQ،
+
+97
+00:06:28,450 --> 00:06:30,290
+نحكي عن New York Stock Exchange، نحكي عن سوق
+
+98
+00:06:30,290 --> 00:06:33,150
+فلسطين الأوراق المالية، نحكي عن سوق القاهرة، نحكي
+
+99
+00:06:33,150 --> 00:06:36,410
+عن سوق خمان، هدول بيسموهم secondary markets The
+
+100
+00:06:36,410 --> 00:06:39,230
+primary market is running by the investment bank
+
+101
+00:06:39,230 --> 00:06:44,610
+ال investment bankis in charge to market the
+
+102
+00:06:44,610 --> 00:06:49,030
+securities in the primary markets يعني البنك
+
+103
+00:06:49,030 --> 00:06:54,090
+الاستثمار هو المسئول على الأسواق المالية الأولية
+
+104
+00:06:54,090 --> 00:07:02,290
+لأن من خلاله the securities are markets to the
+
+105
+00:07:02,290 --> 00:07:07,090
+investors لال investors يعني إذا كان عندنا أي شركة
+
+106
+00:07:07,090 --> 00:07:11,300
+بدأت تصدر شركة ولا حكومة بدأت تصدر أي securityAny
+
+107
+00:07:11,300 --> 00:07:15,700
+security it must go to the .. to the investment
+
+108
+00:07:15,700 --> 00:07:20,080
+bank IB IB is stand for the investment bank and
+
+109
+00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:22,580
+then this is the .. the investors then the
+
+110
+00:07:22,580 --> 00:07:31,820
+investors buying the securities okay اتفضل اتفضل
+
+111
+00:07:31,820 --> 00:07:39,950
+اتفضل اتفضلبس بناء على طرح ال combo شركة okay so
+
+112
+00:07:39,950 --> 00:07:44,470
+primary markets I'm talking about .. سوري أنا حكيت
+
+113
+00:07:44,470 --> 00:07:47,650
+عن ال primary market اه okay ال primary market
+
+114
+00:07:47,650 --> 00:07:51,370
+فهمش ايش و نيه ال securities through underwriting
+
+115
+00:07:51,370 --> 00:07:58,250
+to public يعني اي إصدار ماليأي إصدار أوراق مالية
+
+116
+00:07:58,250 --> 00:08:01,590
+أي اكتساب underwriting معناها اكتساب لازم يتم من
+
+117
+00:08:01,590 --> 00:08:03,770
+خلال اللي هو ال primary markets particularly
+
+118
+00:08:03,770 --> 00:08:06,750
+investment bank تحديدا هو ال investment bank
+
+119
+00:08:06,750 --> 00:08:11,430
+investors get new securities firms get funds اتنوا
+
+120
+00:08:11,430 --> 00:08:16,430
+احنا طلعنا على الرسم اللي هان خلينا نوضحها ناخد
+
+121
+00:08:16,430 --> 00:08:20,250
+مثال بسيط على primary markets لو شركة مثلا بدها
+
+122
+00:08:20,250 --> 00:08:27,110
+تصدر أسهم this company و تكن شركة مثلاPadico،
+
+123
+00:08:27,110 --> 00:08:32,810
+عارفين شركة Padico؟ شركة Padico، شركة Padico شركة
+
+124
+00:08:32,810 --> 00:08:36,670
+فلسطينية طبعا، بدهم يصدروا أسمنة، it's a new
+
+125
+00:08:36,670 --> 00:08:40,690
+issue، يعني إصدار جديد، so they have to go through
+
+126
+00:08:40,690 --> 00:08:45,580
+the investment bankand then investment bank the ..
+
+127
+00:08:45,580 --> 00:08:48,200
+the role of investment bank is to market these
+
+128
+00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:52,580
+securities يعني دور ال .. ال .. البنك الاستثمار هو
+
+129
+00:08:52,580 --> 00:08:57,500
+يعمل تسويق للإصدار طبعا من خلال طبعا هنا هم ال
+
+130
+00:08:57,500 --> 00:09:02,080
+public ال public هم ال investorsالpublic هم ال
+
+131
+00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:06,320
+investors المستثمرين okay this is why the .. so if
+
+132
+00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,120
+you look at this chart investment bank is
+
+133
+00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:11,460
+considered as financial intermediary if you want
+
+134
+00:09:11,460 --> 00:09:15,500
+to link with the previous chapterلأنه خلينا نحكي
+
+135
+00:09:15,500 --> 00:09:18,040
+.. نربط الشبات في التلاتة مع بعض ال investment
+
+136
+00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:22,480
+bank هذا بيكون ال previous chapter the badico is
+
+137
+00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:26,800
+the deficit unit the public is the surplus of the
+
+138
+00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:30,980
+investors so badico go through the investment bank
+
+139
+00:09:30,980 --> 00:09:35,520
+investment bank then market the .. so public pay
+
+140
+00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:42,480
+funds to the .. to the badico so they become as
+
+141
+00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:42,840
+investors
+
+142
+00:09:45,970 --> 00:09:50,530
+Okay I discussed this before go back to the
+
+143
+00:09:50,530 --> 00:09:54,630
+chapter one شرحت الكلام هذا ب chapter one okay so
+
+144
+00:09:54,630 --> 00:10:00,930
+just go back to chapter one لأن حكينا احناحكينا
+
+145
+00:10:00,930 --> 00:10:06,310
+احنا المرة اللي فاتت chapter one انه مافي face to
+
+146
+00:10:06,310 --> 00:10:08,890
+face relationship مافيش علاقة مباشرة في الأسواق
+
+147
+00:10:08,890 --> 00:10:14,330
+المالية لازم يكون في وسطاء ماليين ففي السوق الأول
+
+148
+00:10:14,330 --> 00:10:17,950
+لما انا بضأ أصدر أوراق مالية ASOL مثلا فبديكون في
+
+149
+00:10:17,950 --> 00:10:23,070
+علاقة مباشرةأول إشي بين ال badico بين الشركة وبين
+
+150
+00:10:23,070 --> 00:10:27,530
+ال investment bank بعدين ال investment bank they
+
+151
+00:10:27,530 --> 00:10:30,350
+communicate with the investors هم بيتصفوا مع ال
+
+152
+00:10:30,350 --> 00:10:36,310
+investors طيب هل ال badico محتاجين فلوس؟Okay
+
+153
+00:10:36,310 --> 00:10:39,550
+بيصدروا أسهم ال investment bank بيعمل marketing
+
+154
+00:10:39,550 --> 00:10:42,530
+للأسهم يعني بيعمل تسويق للأسهم طبعا ال public they
+
+155
+00:10:42,530 --> 00:10:46,090
+invest بيشتريوا هذه الأسهم فبصير فيه fund ل .. ل
+
+156
+00:10:46,090 --> 00:10:50,590
+بدك طبعا بالمقابل ال public بيحصلوا على dividends
+
+157
+00:10:50,590 --> 00:10:55,070
+بيحصلوا على نسبة أرباح regarding the investment in
+
+158
+00:10:55,070 --> 00:11:00,790
+.. in the company okay
+
+159
+00:11:00,790 --> 00:11:04,410
+for secondary market which is different totally
+
+160
+00:11:04,410 --> 00:11:09,090
+different storyOkay the secondary market is
+
+161
+00:11:09,090 --> 00:11:12,450
+different story القصة بتختلف after meeting the
+
+162
+00:11:12,450 --> 00:11:16,250
+regulations and instructions of the .. of the
+
+163
+00:11:16,250 --> 00:11:19,850
+secondary market .. of the primary market then it
+
+164
+00:11:19,850 --> 00:11:23,130
+might go to the secondary market بعد ما ال
+
+165
+00:11:23,130 --> 00:11:25,770
+regulations و ال instructions بتاعة السوق المالي
+
+166
+00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:32,160
+يتم تطبيقها مباشرة الأسهم أو السندات أو الأوراق
+
+167
+00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:37,120
+المالية تنتقل للاتجار في السوق الثانوي Investors
+
+168
+00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,980
+trade previously issued securities among
+
+169
+00:11:39,980 --> 00:11:43,360
+themselves وفي هاللحظة هذه بيكون المستثمرين
+
+170
+00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:47,600
+بيبيعوا وبيشتريوا الأسهم من بعض بيبطل في علاقة
+
+171
+00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,000
+للشركة زي ما انتوا شايفين بيصير ال investors هدول
+
+172
+00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:55,420
+طلعواخلصنا ال investment bank، بيصير في starting
+
+173
+00:11:55,420 --> 00:11:58,680
+the secondary market، هال investor A بده يبيع ل
+
+174
+00:11:58,680 --> 00:12:01,140
+investor B، فهذا where .. where they are buying
+
+175
+00:12:01,140 --> 00:12:04,840
+and selling، they buy and selling in the .. in the
+
+176
+00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,520
+secondary market، they cannot buy and sell
+
+177
+00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:13,070
+directlythey have to go through the dealers or the
+
+178
+00:12:13,070 --> 00:12:16,890
+brokers which we will talk about these different
+
+179
+00:12:16,890 --> 00:12:19,810
+types of dealers and brokers later on in this
+
+180
+00:12:19,810 --> 00:12:23,830
+chapter يعني هدول الناسهتقول الناس لما بيشتريوا
+
+181
+00:12:23,830 --> 00:12:27,170
+وبيعوا ممنوع يروحوا يشتريوا وبيعوا من بعض مثلا انا
+
+182
+00:12:27,170 --> 00:12:30,170
+بعرف مثلا واحدة من البنات معها عندها أسهم لشركة
+
+183
+00:12:30,170 --> 00:12:32,970
+badicon بس ليش انا أروح مباشرة اللي هاجيلها انا
+
+184
+00:12:32,970 --> 00:12:36,630
+بدي اشتري .. بدي أشتري من شركة badicon لازم نروح
+
+185
+00:12:36,630 --> 00:12:39,970
+.. we have to go to the .. to the dealer لازم نروح
+
+186
+00:12:39,970 --> 00:12:45,230
+لل dealer then we exchange the securities with the
+
+187
+00:12:45,230 --> 00:12:50,270
+dealerنعمل exchange the securities مع ال dealer مش
+
+188
+00:12:50,270 --> 00:12:53,670
+زي ما الواحد بيمتلك مثلا زي ما مثلا بيمتلك mobile
+
+189
+00:12:53,670 --> 00:12:57,670
+so you are the owner of this mobile you can sell
+
+190
+00:12:57,670 --> 00:13:02,390
+it directly to the investors or to the public the
+
+191
+00:13:02,390 --> 00:13:05,350
+financial market cannot work like this ال
+
+192
+00:13:05,350 --> 00:13:07,770
+financial market ماتعمل بهذه الطريقة انه buying
+
+193
+00:13:07,770 --> 00:13:10,270
+and selling directly لازم يكون في intermediate
+
+194
+00:13:10,270 --> 00:13:13,630
+institutions to organize the relationship between
+
+195
+00:13:13,630 --> 00:13:17,430
+buyer and sellersOkay and this is the rule of the
+
+196
+00:13:17,430 --> 00:13:23,750
+secondary markets Okay what the second .. what the
+
+197
+00:13:23,750 --> 00:13:29,310
+.. the financial markets .. how we trade in the
+
+198
+00:13:29,310 --> 00:13:32,830
+primary and the secondary first of all regarding
+
+199
+00:13:32,830 --> 00:13:36,190
+stocks regarding stocks we have something known as
+
+200
+00:13:36,190 --> 00:13:41,730
+IPO IPO is stand for initial public offerings I
+
+201
+00:13:41,730 --> 00:13:42,730
+initial
+
+202
+00:13:45,780 --> 00:13:53,760
+public offerings it means initial public offerings
+
+203
+00:13:53,760 --> 00:14:00,700
+it means the first securities issued by the
+
+204
+00:14:00,700 --> 00:14:05,840
+company it must beit traded in the with the
+
+205
+00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:09,420
+primary markets and this process known as initial
+
+206
+00:14:09,420 --> 00:14:13,140
+public offerings so initial public offerings any
+
+207
+00:14:13,140 --> 00:14:19,220
+newly company أي شركة جديدة it has to go through
+
+208
+00:14:19,220 --> 00:14:22,280
+the primary markets this process known initial
+
+209
+00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:26,430
+public offeringsinitial public اللي هو الاكتتاب
+
+210
+00:14:26,430 --> 00:14:30,010
+العام بيسموه initial public offering initial
+
+211
+00:14:30,010 --> 00:14:33,390
+public offering اللي هو الاكتتاب العام طبعا لشركة
+
+212
+00:14:33,390 --> 00:14:37,590
+جديدة if it is a newly established company this
+
+213
+00:14:37,590 --> 00:14:39,910
+process known as initial public offerings I will
+
+214
+00:14:39,910 --> 00:14:41,970
+go in details about the initial public offerings
+
+215
+00:14:41,970 --> 00:14:50,290
+حنروح بالتفاصيل كمان شوية the second thing of the
+
+216
+00:14:50,290 --> 00:14:56,200
+stocksseasons offering what it means season
+
+217
+00:14:56,200 --> 00:15:00,660
+offerings this issue is for the already
+
+218
+00:15:00,660 --> 00:15:05,960
+established companybut this company needs to .. to
+
+219
+00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,960
+extra funds or to need .. need for .. for
+
+220
+00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,300
+expansion لتعمل توصيات اجتماعية issue a new
+
+221
+00:15:12,300 --> 00:15:15,500
+securities يعني الفرق بين الأولى والتانية أن هذه
+
+222
+00:15:15,500 --> 00:15:19,520
+شركة جديدة هذه شركة أصلا موجودة لكن هم منهم يعملوا
+
+223
+00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:25,160
+إصدار جديد يعني مثلا زي مثلا Baltel or Badicoبدهم
+
+224
+00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,680
+يعملوا توسع مثلا، بدهم يشتريوا مثلا new antennas،
+
+225
+00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:32,720
+بدهم يشتريوا new antennas و .. and it cost them
+
+226
+00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,420
+million of dollar، بتكلفهم مليون دولارات، so they
+
+227
+00:15:35,420 --> 00:15:38,780
+think to .. to selling shares أو to issue shares،
+
+228
+00:15:38,780 --> 00:15:41,960
+يصدروا أسهم، so this process known as seasoned
+
+229
+00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:45,240
+offering، هاي الطريقة نسميها seasoned offering،
+
+230
+00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:45,800
+okay؟
+
+231
+00:15:49,060 --> 00:15:53,000
+and there is the third one which is a combination
+
+232
+00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,720
+between the bonds and stocks I will talk about the
+
+233
+00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:02,820
+third one but not now bonds, bonds is similar to
+
+234
+00:16:02,820 --> 00:16:06,100
+the stocks في بدل ما عندهم ال initial public
+
+235
+00:16:06,100 --> 00:16:07,580
+offerings في عندهم ال public offerings
+
+236
+00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:13,260
+public offerings public offerings is similar to
+
+237
+00:16:13,260 --> 00:16:15,640
+the initial public offerings why we call this
+
+238
+00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:20,100
+public offerings because anyone anyone can buy the
+
+239
+00:16:20,100 --> 00:16:23,420
+securities this is why it's called public
+
+240
+00:16:23,420 --> 00:16:28,020
+offerings يعني أنا أنت أي واحد في الجامعة أي واحد
+
+241
+00:16:28,020 --> 00:16:33,300
+في الشارع أي واحد بيشتغل أي يعني أي إنسان مع ثمن
+
+242
+00:16:33,300 --> 00:16:36,320
+ال securities بيقدر يروح يشتريهمso there is no
+
+243
+00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:40,080
+limitations في بعض الدول تحط limitations على ال ..
+
+244
+00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:43,020
+ال foreign people و ال local people يعني مثلا إذا
+
+245
+00:16:43,020 --> 00:16:46,620
+بنحكي أجاري مثلا في السعودية مثلا ممكن ي .. في
+
+246
+00:16:46,620 --> 00:16:51,420
+limitations لل .. لل non-saudi peopleفال non-Saudi
+
+247
+00:16:51,420 --> 00:16:54,540
+people they have limitations, they cannot buy
+
+248
+00:16:54,540 --> 00:16:58,660
+these securities, unlimited securities، فيلهم عدد
+
+249
+00:16:58,660 --> 00:17:03,480
+محدد من ال securities، if you talk other areas for
+
+250
+00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,020
+instance if you talk about Kuwait and other
+
+251
+00:17:06,020 --> 00:17:09,580
+countries they .. they apply similar regulations
+
+252
+00:17:09,580 --> 00:17:14,790
+as in the Saudistock markets okay في بعض الناس لأ
+
+253
+00:17:14,790 --> 00:17:18,170
+it is open يعني مفتوحة و أي واحد بيشتري سواء
+
+254
+00:17:18,170 --> 00:17:21,310
+international people or local people they can buy
+
+255
+00:17:21,310 --> 00:17:23,650
+and sell the securities يعني بيقدروا يشتريوا و
+
+256
+00:17:23,650 --> 00:17:28,750
+يبيعوا ال securities private placements private
+
+257
+00:17:28,750 --> 00:17:34,410
+placements this is this private placements is
+
+258
+00:17:34,410 --> 00:17:39,170
+issued for a particular peopleparticular wealthy
+
+259
+00:17:39,170 --> 00:17:44,370
+people or a particular wealthy institution هاي ال
+
+260
+00:17:44,370 --> 00:17:48,450
+private placements ورقة مالية ممكن تكون سند هاي بس
+
+261
+00:17:48,450 --> 00:17:50,590
+مش واضحة شوية بالكتاب خلينا نوضح لكم بيها بس
+
+262
+00:17:50,590 --> 00:17:53,330
+بالكتاب المحتوط اللي هو private placements ال
+
+263
+00:17:53,330 --> 00:17:57,130
+private placement لل bonds بس ممكن نعمل احنا
+
+264
+00:17:57,130 --> 00:18:01,510
+private placement لل stocks كمان okay فإيش معنى
+
+265
+00:18:01,510 --> 00:18:03,550
+private placements private placement اللي احنا
+
+266
+00:18:03,550 --> 00:18:08,040
+نطرح سند او نطرح سهمفقط لأشخاص معينين في البلد
+
+267
+00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:11,040
+they have a good reputation they have a good
+
+268
+00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,780
+prestige they have a good wealth and so on يعني
+
+269
+00:18:14,780 --> 00:18:21,760
+مثلا عندنا عائلة معينة مثلا في لبنان okay يتم
+
+270
+00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:25,300
+إصدار أسهم فقط لهذه العائلة because of the
+
+271
+00:18:25,300 --> 00:18:28,180
+prestigious of the social position of this family
+
+272
+00:18:28,180 --> 00:18:34,300
+and this issue is is limited to this familyو هذا
+
+273
+00:18:34,300 --> 00:18:37,920
+الإصدار فقط لهذه العائلة أو لبعض الناس الموجودين
+
+274
+00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,920
+في هذه العائلة كمان ممكن يتم إصدار لشركة معينة
+
+275
+00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:46,560
+يعني انه انا .. انا شركة بدكو تروح تصدر أسهم فقط
+
+276
+00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:50,460
+اشتريها بنك فلسطين فبسموه private placement why ..
+
+277
+00:18:50,460 --> 00:18:52,600
+why companies they do this because private
+
+278
+00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:57,620
+placement is cheaper thanyes so you don't need to
+
+279
+00:18:57,620 --> 00:19:00,600
+pay a commission or high commission to the
+
+280
+00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:04,100
+investment bank يعني مابالذناش ندفع كتير
+
+281
+00:19:04,100 --> 00:19:06,860
+commission لل investment bank so some companies
+
+282
+00:19:06,860 --> 00:19:10,340
+they prefer to do private placement rather to do
+
+283
+00:19:10,340 --> 00:19:12,860
+likethe initial public offerings or public
+
+284
+00:19:12,860 --> 00:19:16,000
+offerings العمولة أقل this is the first thing the
+
+285
+00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,720
+second thing some companies they want to secure a
+
+286
+00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,760
+particular people as a member in their
+
+287
+00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:26,720
+organization بعض الشركات بفضله أشخاص معينين يكونوا
+
+288
+00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,880
+عندهم في الشركة so they they do private placement
+
+289
+00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:34,600
+for them these private placement stocks have هذه
+
+290
+00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:39,460
+الإصدارات الخاصةthe securities of private
+
+291
+00:19:39,460 --> 00:19:41,840
+placement are not listed in the financial markets
+
+292
+00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,960
+ممنوع يتم تدوّلها في السوق الماني because this is
+
+293
+00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,980
+just for a particular people يعني بعد ما يتم
+
+294
+00:19:47,980 --> 00:19:51,280
+الإصدار حتى بالسوق الأولي هذه مابتروحش على السوق
+
+295
+00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,760
+الثانوي وخلاص بتظلها limited يعني هدول الناس ممنوع
+
+296
+00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:58,620
+يبيعوا ممنوع يشتريوا في هذه الأسهم خلاص بتظلها
+
+297
+00:19:58,620 --> 00:20:01,360
+ملكية اللي هم هدول الناس
+
+298
+00:20:05,850 --> 00:20:09,010
+بنقش نحكي احتكار بس عشان نضمن ان هم ضالوا معنا
+
+299
+00:20:09,010 --> 00:20:15,830
+عشان نضمن ان الشركة هذه تبقى بها المستوى هنا okay
+
+300
+00:20:15,830 --> 00:20:21,250
+underwriting
+
+301
+00:20:21,250 --> 00:20:25,630
+قبل شوية كنا نسمع بال the rule of the investment
+
+302
+00:20:25,630 --> 00:20:30,700
+bank نرجع طلعه هانتطلعوا ال investment bank is
+
+303
+00:20:30,700 --> 00:20:33,840
+playing the intermediate role between the
+
+304
+00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:40,660
+companies or the firms and the investors so what
+
+305
+00:20:40,660 --> 00:20:43,860
+the investors or what is the investment bank
+
+306
+00:20:43,860 --> 00:20:47,420
+doing؟ the first thing is the underwriting
+
+307
+00:20:47,420 --> 00:20:53,720
+التغطية، أه بيسموها التغطية الإصدار the investment
+
+308
+00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:58,870
+bank has two main underwriting systemin your
+
+309
+00:20:58,870 --> 00:21:02,630
+textbook it is just only one يعني في ال textbook
+
+310
+00:21:02,630 --> 00:21:05,050
+تبعكم فيه نقطة واحد من الإصدارات اللي بيعملها
+
+311
+00:21:05,050 --> 00:21:08,230
+investment bank if in other advanced books there
+
+312
+00:21:08,230 --> 00:21:11,850
+are at least two في بعض الكتب المتقدمة شوية بال
+
+313
+00:21:11,850 --> 00:21:14,650
+investment في عندنا نوعين من دور ال investment
+
+314
+00:21:14,650 --> 00:21:17,350
+bank the first one is the underwriting investment
+
+315
+00:21:17,350 --> 00:21:19,610
+bank helps the firms to issue and market new
+
+316
+00:21:19,610 --> 00:21:22,790
+securities يعني بتساعدهم هدول الناس على إنهم
+
+317
+00:21:22,790 --> 00:21:25,950
+يعملوا إصدارات و يسوقولهم إيهاwhich known the
+
+318
+00:21:25,950 --> 00:21:31,550
+general or the well-known type of underwriting is
+
+319
+00:21:31,550 --> 00:21:37,670
+the firm commitments firm commitments it means the
+
+320
+00:21:37,670 --> 00:21:44,530
+investment bank sell the securities on behalf of
+
+321
+00:21:44,530 --> 00:21:49,450
+the companies full commitments full commitments
+
+322
+00:21:49,450 --> 00:21:53,230
+يعني هم بروحوا ببيعوا الإصدار بالكاملبالنيابة عن
+
+323
+00:21:53,230 --> 00:22:00,230
+اللي هو الشركة المصدرة للأسهم طبعا هاي ال
+
+324
+00:22:00,230 --> 00:22:04,310
+underwriting في شغل اسمه prospectus prospectus it
+
+325
+00:22:04,310 --> 00:22:13,350
+means is the guidelines of .. of the issue of ..
+
+326
+00:22:13,350 --> 00:22:15,770
+or the underwriting is the guidelines of the
+
+327
+00:22:15,770 --> 00:22:22,180
+underwriting هي عبارة عن دليل للإصدارهي إيش بتشمل؟
+
+328
+00:22:22,180 --> 00:22:27,080
+بتشمل ال .. بتشمل اسم الشركة مثلاال objective
+
+329
+00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:31,780
+الأهداف تبع الشركة ال strategic tools ال vision ال
+
+330
+00:22:31,780 --> 00:22:36,780
+values ال aims the name of trustees أشخاص الناس
+
+331
+00:22:36,780 --> 00:22:41,940
+المؤسسين ال ال areas اللي بنعملوا فيها investment
+
+332
+00:22:41,940 --> 00:22:45,940
+الأماكن اللي بيعملوا فيها استثمار طريقة الإصدار
+
+333
+00:22:45,940 --> 00:22:49,500
+عدد الأسهم رأس المال المصرح بيه يعني details about
+
+334
+00:22:49,500 --> 00:22:53,260
+the the companies and details about theissue or
+
+335
+00:22:53,260 --> 00:22:56,960
+the underwriting يعني شغلات عامة الشركة وشغلات
+
+336
+00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,840
+بتخص الإصدار نفسه يعني أكمل سهل بدهم يصدروا؟ مين
+
+337
+00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,060
+بروك الاستثمار اللي هتروح تعملهم تسبيخ لهذه
+
+338
+00:23:03,060 --> 00:23:08,120
+الأسهم؟ إلى آخرينwhich includes prospectus as you
+
+339
+00:23:08,120 --> 00:23:10,960
+say describe the issue and prospectus of the
+
+340
+00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:16,360
+company تعمل شغل تاني الشغلة شو الشركة بتشتغل
+
+341
+00:23:16,360 --> 00:23:19,540
+أهدافها، استراتيجياتها، ال values تبعتها، مين
+
+342
+00:23:19,540 --> 00:23:22,080
+المؤسسين تبعونها، إيش ال vision تبعوها، إيه
+
+343
+00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,220
+الأخرين اللي حكيته وشغلة تانية بتخص الإصدار نفسه،
+
+344
+00:23:25,220 --> 00:23:29,620
+أكم ساهم بدون مين بنوك الاستثمار و هكذا prospectus
+
+345
+00:23:29,620 --> 00:23:33,800
+includes the red herring لو أنتوا روحتوا على ال ..
+
+346
+00:23:34,850 --> 00:23:37,230
+عال dictionary اللي كتبته red herring عارفيني شو
+
+347
+00:23:37,230 --> 00:23:40,950
+معناها red herring؟ red herring معناها ال .. زي ال
+
+348
+00:23:40,950 --> 00:23:45,010
+.. اه؟ ال ranch الحمراء اللي ايش؟ ال ranch الحمراء
+
+349
+00:23:45,010 --> 00:23:48,790
+اه اللي هي السمكة الحمراء او بيسموه بتعرفوا ال ..
+
+350
+00:23:48,790 --> 00:23:53,790
+سمك ال .. الهمور الهمور او سمك اللقس يعني بس اللون
+
+351
+00:23:53,790 --> 00:23:57,450
+أحمر هذا هذا اسمه ال red herring طبعا إيش موضوع؟
+
+352
+00:23:57,450 --> 00:24:04,180
+ليش دخل هنا؟ و هو؟بنك Red herring هذا مصطلح قديم
+
+353
+00:24:04,180 --> 00:24:10,460
+بال financial markets it means the
+
+354
+00:24:10,460 --> 00:24:14,340
+prospectus is stamped in red يعني ال prospectus
+
+355
+00:24:14,340 --> 00:24:18,620
+الدليل لسه محطوط عليه ختم بالأحمر which means the
+
+356
+00:24:18,620 --> 00:24:24,920
+company should meet the regulations of the of the
+
+357
+00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,840
+stock exchange commission طبعا في stock exchange
+
+358
+00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:33,520
+commissionاللي هو ال stock exchange I think
+
+359
+00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,540
+commission okay stock exchange commission لأ اللي
+
+360
+00:24:37,540 --> 00:24:42,620
+هو لجنة تسويق الإصدار أو لجنة السوق المالي لأ هيئة
+
+361
+00:24:42,620 --> 00:24:45,160
+الأوراق المالية اسمها هيئة الأوراق المالية يعني
+
+362
+00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,820
+موجودة هذه في في سوق فلسطين الأوراق المالية يعني
+
+363
+00:24:48,820 --> 00:24:53,220
+الهيئة اللي بتنظم الإصدارات وهي بتكون غالبا هيئة
+
+364
+00:24:53,220 --> 00:24:58,000
+حكوميةإذا ما كانتش حكومية بتكون هي مرتبطة بالحكومة
+
+365
+00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,260
+بشكل غير مباشر لازم هم يوافقوا على إيش، يوافقوا
+
+366
+00:25:01,260 --> 00:25:03,480
+على الإصدار قبل ما يحكوا مع ال investment bank
+
+367
+00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:08,460
+فهذا ال process بيسموها red herring يعني is a
+
+368
+00:25:08,460 --> 00:25:11,580
+preliminary of prospectus يعني هي عبارة عن
+
+369
+00:25:11,580 --> 00:25:16,240
+prospectus لكن fast draftيعني ايش first draft؟
+
+370
+00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:20,620
+يعني نسخة أولى، الواحد لما بيعمل يعني بيعمل واجب
+
+371
+00:25:20,620 --> 00:25:22,600
+بيبقى من النسخة الأولى، يعني لسه مش ال final draft
+
+372
+00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:26,960
+فبيعمل نسخة الأولى ال subject to some exchange وهي
+
+373
+00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:31,220
+ممكن يتم التغيير فيها لأنه هي مرتبطة بال
+
+374
+00:25:31,220 --> 00:25:35,020
+regulations و ال instructions اللي بتتطبق من ال
+
+375
+00:25:35,020 --> 00:25:39,910
+SEC اللي هو security exchange commissionفبعد ما هم
+
+376
+00:25:39,910 --> 00:25:44,690
+يقرروا يوافقوا على كل المتطلبات ويقولوا إن الشركة
+
+377
+00:25:44,690 --> 00:25:51,010
+فعلا يعني طبقت كل المعايير فبيصدروا ال final
+
+378
+00:25:51,010 --> 00:25:57,710
+prospectus يعني أول إشي بيردوا ال red herring ال
+
+379
+00:25:57,710 --> 00:26:00,650
+red herring هذه بتكون لسه first draft لل
+
+380
+00:26:00,650 --> 00:26:04,450
+prospectus and subject to change يعني مثلا أعطيكم
+
+381
+00:26:04,450 --> 00:26:07,870
+مثال بسيط لما بيبعتوا ال prospectus اللي هو الدليل
+
+382
+00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:13,080
+أول مرة بيسموه red herring بيكون مثلا اسم شخص مش
+
+383
+00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:17,120
+عاجبهم الحكومة أوه فبيحكيولهم انه هذا الشخص ما
+
+384
+00:26:17,120 --> 00:26:20,780
+بيبناش إياكم في هالشركة طب عامين اللي بيحكيلهم
+
+385
+00:26:20,780 --> 00:26:23,560
+الكلام هذا هيئة الأوراق المالية لأنه because this
+
+386
+00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,300
+is a public company هذه شركة مساهمة عامة so
+
+387
+00:26:26,300 --> 00:26:28,940
+sometimes the government intervene in the trustees
+
+388
+00:26:28,940 --> 00:26:37,200
+بتدخلوا في ال trustees ممكن رأس المال يعني
+
+389
+00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:43,310
+مثلاأكتر من المطلوب فبالتالي ممكن يتدخلوا في تخفيض
+
+390
+00:26:43,310 --> 00:26:47,450
+رأس المال ممكن يحكي مثلا some objectives they have
+
+391
+00:26:47,450 --> 00:26:50,830
+a vague objective يعني أهداف غير واضحة فممكن
+
+392
+00:26:50,830 --> 00:26:54,850
+يتدخلوا في الأهداف الواضحة كل هذا الأمور بدخل في
+
+393
+00:26:54,850 --> 00:26:57,970
+ال red herring بعد ما يعملوا يرتبوا أمور الشركة
+
+394
+00:26:57,970 --> 00:27:01,310
+ويتم الموافقة they issue the final prospectus
+
+395
+00:27:01,310 --> 00:27:08,620
+بصدروا ال final prospectus كيف الاتفاق معال .. ال
+
+396
+00:27:08,620 --> 00:27:13,120
+investment bank كيف الشركة بتدفق الشركة هاي مثلا
+
+397
+00:27:13,120 --> 00:27:16,020
+Badico و لا Battel و لا اي شركة مثلا بتدفق مع ال
+
+398
+00:27:16,020 --> 00:27:19,560
+investment bank عادة زي ما انتوا شايفين هاي الشركة
+
+399
+00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:23,220
+اللي بيبدأ تصدر الإصدار بيسموه issuing فعلا لازم
+
+400
+00:27:23,220 --> 00:27:27,400
+يكون في واحد اسمه lead underwriter يعني اللي هو
+
+401
+00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,840
+اللي بيقود الإصدار لازم يعني إذا كان investment
+
+402
+00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:35,670
+bank بتبقى بس هانا ال chartلو مثلا عندنا احنا شركة
+
+403
+00:27:35,670 --> 00:27:38,470
+كبيرة مثلا زي IBM و لا شركة General Motors و لا
+
+404
+00:27:38,470 --> 00:27:42,370
+شركة مثلا جديدة بتتنتشق و .. و الرأس المال سبعها
+
+405
+00:27:42,370 --> 00:27:45,830
+مثلا مليارات الدولارات فبالتالي ممكن ال investment
+
+406
+00:27:45,830 --> 00:27:49,250
+bank لوحده one investment bank cannot cover this
+
+407
+00:27:49,250 --> 00:27:53,030
+process مقدرش يغطي كل هذا ال process so it is
+
+408
+00:27:53,030 --> 00:27:56,070
+managed by different investment banks فممكن اكتر
+
+409
+00:27:56,070 --> 00:27:59,950
+من بنك استثمار يدخل في هذا ال process فعشان اكتر
+
+410
+00:27:59,950 --> 00:28:02,050
+يعني لو كان عندنا احنا five investment banks لو
+
+411
+00:28:02,050 --> 00:28:06,960
+كان عندنا خمسةلازم يكون فيه leader لازم يكون في
+
+412
+00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,740
+واحد leading and coordinating the .. the
+
+413
+00:28:10,740 --> 00:28:15,660
+underwriting واحد يقود وينسق ال underwriting فهم
+
+414
+00:28:15,660 --> 00:28:18,540
+بختاروا زي ما انتوا موجودين هنا هاي عندنا ال
+
+415
+00:28:18,540 --> 00:28:22,260
+leader فعلا اللي هو lead underwriter اللي هو ال ..
+
+416
+00:28:22,260 --> 00:28:25,680
+البنك الاستثمار المسئول الأول و الأخير عن إصدار
+
+417
+00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,500
+طبعا في زي ما انتوا شايفين في عندنا كذا bank يعني
+
+418
+00:28:28,500 --> 00:28:32,670
+هنا ايه؟ Bank A, Bank B, Bank C, Bank Dهدول هما
+
+419
+00:28:32,670 --> 00:28:35,870
+بيكونوا دخلين في عملية الإصدار، بعدين اللي هو
+
+420
+00:28:35,870 --> 00:28:40,230
+بروحوا لل private investors أو ل public investors
+
+421
+00:28:40,230 --> 00:28:45,290
+اللي هم المستثمرين اللي بدهم يشتريوا الإصدار okay
+
+422
+00:28:47,950 --> 00:28:50,410
+ال investment banking طبعا فهمنا احنا ال red
+
+423
+00:28:50,410 --> 00:28:53,810
+herring و ال prospectus نكمل برضه بال .. بال ..
+
+424
+00:28:53,810 --> 00:28:55,910
+بال investment bank .. banking و حكينا ال firm
+
+425
+00:28:55,910 --> 00:29:01,450
+commitment ال firm commitment حكيتها قبل شوية انه
+
+426
+00:29:01,450 --> 00:29:08,410
+تغطية كاملة بتعهد البنك الاستثمار بشراء او بتسويق
+
+427
+00:29:08,410 --> 00:29:13,290
+الإصدار لل publicو حكيت إنه في شغلة .. شغلة تانية
+
+428
+00:29:13,290 --> 00:29:16,610
+أو نوع تاني مش مطلوب منكم في هذا المستوى ممكن فقط
+
+429
+00:29:16,610 --> 00:29:19,570
+يكون دور البنك الاستثمار هو بيسموها partial
+
+430
+00:29:19,570 --> 00:29:23,550
+coverage اللي هو التغطية الجزئية يعني يروح فقط هو
+
+431
+00:29:23,550 --> 00:29:27,810
+مهمته بس يروح يبيع مش مهمته تغطية كاملة و بعد هيك
+
+432
+00:29:27,810 --> 00:29:34,250
+إذا مابعش فممكن ي .. ي .. يتم مثلا إجراءات أخرى
+
+433
+00:29:34,250 --> 00:29:37,410
+بالاتفاق مع بنك الاستثمار طيب فى هى ال commitment؟
+
+434
+00:29:37,660 --> 00:29:40,340
+investment bank بيشير ال securities بنك الاستثمار
+
+435
+00:29:40,340 --> 00:29:42,580
+بيشتري ال securities from the issuing company
+
+436
+00:29:42,580 --> 00:29:45,440
+بيشتري من هذه الشركة زي ما انتوا شايفينه على ال
+
+437
+00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,700
+charts and then resell them to the public يعني
+
+438
+00:29:48,700 --> 00:29:53,700
+أولا بروح بنك الاستثمار بيشتري الإصدار كله يعني لو
+
+439
+00:29:53,700 --> 00:29:58,120
+مثلا شركة جديدة عندها مثلا عشرين مليون دولار بدهم
+
+440
+00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:04,100
+يصدروهم فبروح بنك الاستثمار بيشتريهم كلهمو بيروحوا
+
+441
+00:30:04,100 --> 00:30:09,480
+ببيعهم ل ال .. ل ال investors او لل public فهي
+
+442
+00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:13,600
+طريقة .. في طرق تانية طبعا مش مطلوبة منكم لأن فيها
+
+443
+00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:22,260
+تفاصيل اكتر من ال .. اه تفضل يا عفاف وينها؟ الاش؟
+
+444
+00:30:22,260 --> 00:30:29,100
+تغطية الاسدارة الاسدارة يعني الأسهم المصدرة او
+
+445
+00:30:29,100 --> 00:30:33,020
+الأوراق المالية المصدرةطبعا بتعهد أول إيش بشتريها
+
+446
+00:30:33,020 --> 00:30:41,980
+و بعدين بروح ببيعها طبعا بناخد بالناهان يا بنات أن
+
+447
+00:30:41,980 --> 00:30:48,000
+ال IBO is good for investment هو كتير كويس
+
+448
+00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:52,980
+للاستثمار حسب الحالة اللي بتصير عن ال IBO لأنه
+
+449
+00:30:52,980 --> 00:31:01,980
+عادة ال investment bankas .. as the .. they manage
+
+450
+00:31:01,980 --> 00:31:07,500
+the .. the underwriting they issue .. they .. they
+
+451
+00:31:07,500 --> 00:31:11,040
+issue the securities below the predicted price
+
+452
+00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:16,140
+يعني إذا كان السعر السهم في السوق مثلا عشرين دولار
+
+453
+00:31:16,140 --> 00:31:20,300
+فهم بيحاولوا ينزلوا السعر مثلا لخمساش to encourage
+
+454
+00:31:20,300 --> 00:31:23,700
+.. to encourage investors to buy the .. the
+
+455
+00:31:23,700 --> 00:31:28,450
+underwriting عشان يشجعوهملكن هذا لا يعني ان
+
+456
+00:31:28,450 --> 00:31:32,330
+الشركات كل شركات الاستثمار هبتعمل لك لأ some
+
+457
+00:31:32,330 --> 00:31:36,150
+companies they do this طيب بال investment banking
+
+458
+00:31:36,150 --> 00:31:38,810
+process we have something is known shelf
+
+459
+00:31:38,810 --> 00:31:44,210
+registration okay shelf يعني rough التسجيل طبعا هي
+
+460
+00:31:44,210 --> 00:31:51,530
+التسجيل التسجيل الشركات انتبه
+
+461
+00:31:51,530 --> 00:31:55,370
+انا حكيت انا ال SECاللي هو security exchange
+
+462
+00:31:55,370 --> 00:32:00,590
+commission في عندها role رقم 415 وهذا ال role فيه
+
+463
+00:32:00,590 --> 00:32:04,050
+role .. role مشابه له او مشابه انه في سوق فلسطين
+
+464
+00:32:04,050 --> 00:32:07,330
+أوراق المالية يعني تقريبا نفس التعليمات والتوجيهات
+
+465
+00:32:07,330 --> 00:32:11,810
+هذا shelf registration اشمنه allows firm to
+
+466
+00:32:11,810 --> 00:32:14,930
+register securities and gradually sell them to the
+
+467
+00:32:14,930 --> 00:32:20,550
+public for two years مسموح للشركة انه
+
+468
+00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:28,200
+يتم تسجيل ال securities في هيئة الأوراق المالية و
+
+469
+00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:32,360
+خلال فترة سنتين لازم هذه الشركة تنتقل لل primary
+
+470
+00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:37,660
+markets لأ معهم two years يعني بيبدوا يبيعوا ال ..
+
+471
+00:32:37,660 --> 00:32:40,120
+ال .. الأسهم لل .. أو ال securities لل investors
+
+472
+00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:45,600
+within two years خلال سنتين the company or the
+
+473
+00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:49,810
+securities should go to the secondary marketsthey
+
+474
+00:32:49,810 --> 00:32:53,290
+have to apply the regulations and instructions of
+
+475
+00:32:53,290 --> 00:32:57,450
+the SEC لازم يطبقوا ال .. ال regulations what
+
+476
+00:32:57,450 --> 00:32:59,610
+these regulations شو هاد ال regulations for
+
+477
+00:32:59,610 --> 00:33:03,170
+instance they have to issue to a profitable income
+
+478
+00:33:03,170 --> 00:33:07,550
+statement مثلا واحدة من التعليمات لازم يصدروا
+
+479
+00:33:07,550 --> 00:33:11,650
+سنتين أرباح تحقيق أرباح أو بيسموها income
+
+480
+00:33:11,650 --> 00:33:15,850
+statement لازم يصدروا سنتين فيها أرباحتمام؟ لازم
+
+481
+00:33:15,850 --> 00:33:19,230
+يكون مثلا ال .. ال liquidity ratios ال activity
+
+482
+00:33:19,230 --> 00:33:22,630
+ratios ال .. ال leverage ratios and is acceptable
+
+483
+00:33:22,630 --> 00:33:27,030
+يعني التحليل المالي تبع الشركة تحليل وضع جيد ال
+
+484
+00:33:27,030 --> 00:33:30,170
+market شركتها بقتها مقبولة بعد هيك إذا صار في
+
+485
+00:33:30,170 --> 00:33:35,030
+الشروط هذه ممكن تروح على ال secondary markets فهي
+
+486
+00:33:35,030 --> 00:33:39,110
+.. هي .. هي الخطوة بيسموها shelf registration يعني
+
+487
+00:33:39,110 --> 00:33:42,830
+بروح بسجلهفي ال .. في هيئة الأوراق البالية and
+
+488
+00:33:42,830 --> 00:33:45,050
+they are waiting to be in the secondary market
+
+489
+00:33:45,050 --> 00:33:48,690
+يعني هم they are in the queue يعني بيظلهم سنتين مش
+
+490
+00:33:48,690 --> 00:33:52,610
+دخلين في السوق المالي العادي بيظلهم لمدة سنتين برا
+
+491
+00:33:52,610 --> 00:33:57,730
+السوق لكن مسجلين هم مافيه حتى يكتمل الشروط و تروح
+
+492
+00:33:57,730 --> 00:34:02,990
+على السوق المالي الثانوي within two years in some
+
+493
+00:34:02,990 --> 00:34:07,430
+countries they ask for three years في بعض الدول
+
+494
+00:34:07,430 --> 00:34:09,630
+ممكن .. بعد تلت سنوات
+
+495
+00:34:15,240 --> 00:34:21,000
+زاية بقى؟ زاية من الأولى .. زاية من الأولى بعد سنة
+
+496
+00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,540
+بيشوفون علم علشان دي و بعدين بروحوا على ال
+
+497
+00:34:23,540 --> 00:34:24,540
+secondary market بروحوا على ال secondary market
+
+498
+00:34:24,540 --> 00:34:28,160
+فهي ال .. ال .. ال .. ال queue عارفة إيش معنى
+
+499
+00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:31,340
+queue، queue يعني بالانتظار، بكونوا هبقى بالانتظار
+
+500
+00:34:31,340 --> 00:34:34,960
+لازم إنه يكون عندهم وضع مالي كويس و لازم يكون
+
+501
+00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:41,100
+عندهم تقارير مالية جيدة و بعد هيك بروحوا على ال
+
+502
+00:34:41,100 --> 00:34:41,940
+secondary markets
+
+503
+00:34:46,730 --> 00:34:50,430
+بال .. اه بي .. بيصير .. طبعا بيفرق كتير لإنه
+
+504
+00:34:50,430 --> 00:34:54,050
+ممنوع يصير trade ممنوع يصير التجارة في أسهمها
+
+505
+00:34:54,050 --> 00:34:59,090
+بيصير
+
+506
+00:34:59,090 --> 00:35:01,710
+لما يقع .. اه بالظبط بيصير .. بيصير أعمالية بيع
+
+507
+00:35:01,710 --> 00:35:05,510
+داخلية بين المستثمرين، تمام؟ لكن مش بالطريقة اللي
+
+508
+00:35:05,510 --> 00:35:10,030
+بيصير فيها ال secondary markets، تمام؟
+
+509
+00:35:10,030 --> 00:35:15,150
+طيب طب ماعش الحل، احنا ب .. we just end هذا الحل
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..bb63d0da46b55e509f3f29d428ca178d2dc1ccb2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1783 @@
+1
+00:00:21,430 --> 00:00:24,590
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم إن شاء الله اليوم هنحكي ب
+
+2
+00:00:24,590 --> 00:00:26,930
+chapter 6 اللي هو risk aversion and capital 
+
+3
+00:00:26,930 --> 00:00:31,470
+allocation risk aversion اللي هو تجنب المخاطر
+
+4
+00:00:31,470 --> 00:00:38,710
+وتوزيع رأس المال يعني مثلاً أنا عندي استثمارات
+
+5
+00:00:38,710 --> 00:00:48,450
+استثمارات فيها مخاطر عالية وفي مخاطر منخفضة في
+
+6
+00:00:48,450 --> 00:00:55,590
+عندي risk aversion أه في عندي risk aversion الـ risk 
+
+7
+00:00:55,590 --> 00:01:00,350
+aversion هي تجنب المخاطر وعند capital allocation
+
+8
+00:01:00,350 --> 00:01:05,790
+الـ capital allocation توزيع الموارد لو
+
+9
+00:01:05,790 --> 00:01:10,470
+عندنا احنا مجموعة استثمارات هذه الاستثمارات ما في
+
+10
+00:01:10,470 --> 00:01:13,990
+استثمار مشابه لآخر يعني في عندنا استثمارات عالية
+
+11
+00:01:13,990 --> 00:01:19,580
+المخاطر واستثمارات منخفضة المخاطر في بعض الـ
+
+12
+00:01:19,580 --> 00:01:23,100
+investors بعض المستثمرين بيروحوا على استثمارات
+
+13
+00:01:23,100 --> 00:01:27,540
+خاطرة جداً وبعض الـ investors بيروحوا على استثمارات
+
+14
+00:01:27,540 --> 00:01:33,740
+متوسطة الخطورة ومستثمرين آخرين بيروحوا على متدنية
+
+15
+00:01:33,740 --> 00:01:38,560
+الخطورة طيب إذا كل every investors or every
+
+16
+00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:46,040
+investor has its own risk criteria كل مستثمر له
+
+17
+00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:49,910
+risk criteria خاصة فيه يعني مثلاً لو جينا قلنا
+
+18
+00:01:49,910 --> 00:01:55,050
+شاب صغير يعني في الـ twenties بخلاف عن راجل old man
+
+19
+00:01:55,050 --> 00:02:00,530
+in his seventies طبعاً يعني راجل أو شاب عمره عشرين
+
+20
+00:02:00,530 --> 00:02:04,990
+سنة بخلاف عن اختياره عمره سبعين سنة الاختيار اللي
+
+21
+00:02:04,990 --> 00:02:07,950
+عمره سبعين سنة بيحتاج لـ investments يكون الـ risk
+
+22
+00:02:07,950 --> 00:02:12,350
+تماماً منخفض والشاب الصغير العشرين مش مشكلة عنده الـ
+
+23
+00:02:12,350 --> 00:02:18,560
+risk ممكن يكون عالياً لو أجينا احنا أخذنا مثلاً بين
+
+24
+00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:26,300
+مثلاً أرملة وبين بنت فهنَجد أن الأرملة الاستثمار
+
+25
+00:02:26,300 --> 00:02:29,440
+تبعها بتكون very conservative لأن عندها ممكن تكون
+
+26
+00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:32,820
+عندها أولاد عندها ... بتتربيهم فإن أنتم بكرا
+
+27
+00:02:32,820 --> 00:02:38,100
+تصيروا managers أو مدراء أو يعني ناس تفهم في
+
+28
+00:02:38,100 --> 00:02:44,430
+الاستثمار فالـ ... الـ ... الـ investor criteria خصائص
+
+29
+00:02:44,430 --> 00:02:48,110
+الشخص نفسها هي اللي بتحكم the level of risk اللي
+
+30
+00:02:48,110 --> 00:02:52,980
+بتحكم مستوى المخاطرفي ما حكينا الـ old man is not
+
+31
+00:02:52,980 --> 00:02:57,380
+as him as the young one يعني الزلمة الكبير مش زي
+
+32
+00:02:57,380 --> 00:03:02,920
+الشاب الصغير الـ water lady is not as him as the
+
+33
+00:03:02,920 --> 00:03:08,660
+unmarried lady يعني البنت الصغيرة مش زي المدامة أو
+
+34
+00:03:08,660 --> 00:03:11,580
+الأرملة مثلاً هذه بتكون investment criteria very
+
+35
+00:03:11,580 --> 00:03:17,160
+conservative this is ممكن very high risk لو أجينا
+
+36
+00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:22,100
+احنا مثلاً أخذنا retired people الناس المتقاعدين
+
+37
+00:03:22,100 --> 00:03:25,920
+بيكون عندهم الـ risk مخفض أكثر من الـ working
+
+38
+00:03:25,920 --> 00:03:29,900
+people الناس اللي بيشتغلوا فبدنا نفكر في الـ ... في
+
+39
+00:03:29,900 --> 00:03:34,340
+الـ ... so we classified people based in the ... in
+
+40
+00:03:34,340 --> 00:03:38,100
+their criteria so we have risk lovers we have risk
+
+41
+00:03:38,100 --> 00:03:42,460
+neutrals and we have risk avoiders يعني في عندنا
+
+42
+00:03:42,460 --> 00:03:47,450
+ناس بتجنبوا المخاطرفي ناس neutral ايش neutral؟
+
+43
+00:03:47,450 --> 00:03:52,310
+they don't care about risk أه they take the risk
+
+44
+00:03:52,310 --> 00:03:56,810
+as enjoyment بياخدوا الـ risk as ايش؟ enjoyment ايش
+
+45
+00:03:56,810 --> 00:04:01,610
+enjoyment؟ يعني استمتاع مغامرة زي اللي بتشوفوه هم
+
+46
+00:04:01,610 --> 00:04:07,010
+دول they are ... they are gambling on horses يعني
+
+47
+00:04:07,010 --> 00:04:11,650
+اللي بيرهنوا على الحصن هذا ... هذا is for enjoyment
+
+48
+00:04:12,940 --> 00:04:17,000
+يعني كثير كل يوم بتشوفوهم حتى إذا في ... في ... في
+
+49
+00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,600
+غزة مثلاً نجد الظاهر عادي موجودة إن ممكن ناس يعملوا
+
+50
+00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,820
+gambling على الحصن مين which is the winner؟ مين هو
+
+51
+00:04:23,820 --> 00:04:29,100
+الـ winner؟ ومين which is the second winner؟ طبعاً؟
+
+52
+00:04:29,100 --> 00:04:33,700
+so this is the thing so ... so this is ... this
+
+53
+00:04:33,700 --> 00:04:36,980
+chapter six is mainly focus on the risk aversion
+
+54
+00:04:36,980 --> 00:04:38,620
+and risk neutral
+
+55
+00:05:01,110 --> 00:05:04,690
+المستثمرين في طبيعة بعض المستثمرين أن هم في avoid
+
+56
+00:05:04,690 --> 00:05:06,010
+risk يتجنبوا المخاطر
+
+57
+00:05:09,230 --> 00:05:13,330
+لدرجة أن هذه المخاطر مرتبطة في الـ rewards يعني في
+
+58
+00:05:13,330 --> 00:05:19,690
+المكافأة يعني هم مش هيخاطروا إلا إذا اتكافؤوا هيك
+
+59
+00:05:19,690 --> 00:05:23,930
+المفهومة المكافأة 
+
+60
+00:05:23,930 --> 00:05:28,010
+يعني المخاطر مرتبطة بالمكافأة هذا الشكل الطبيعي
+
+61
+00:05:28,010 --> 00:05:31,170
+هذا الشكل الطبيعي أن الـ reward is linked with the
+
+62
+00:05:31,170 --> 00:05:36,510
+risk so the higher level of risk is higher level
+
+63
+00:05:36,510 --> 00:05:43,780
+of reward المشكلة وين أنه if you
+
+64
+00:05:43,780 --> 00:05:47,820
+compare with هذه يعني دائماً اللي بنحكي فيها if we
+
+65
+00:05:47,820 --> 00:05:52,820
+have A and B and I ask you this question in the
+
+66
+00:05:52,820 --> 00:05:55,480
+last meeting or the last week which you prefer A
+
+67
+00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,820
+or B سألنا سؤالها بأنه أفضل A ولا B
+
+68
+00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:09,700
+A تحمل أسرع أسرع فإذا كان هذا أسرع وهذا مكتوب فهو
+
+69
+00:06:09,700 --> 00:06:18,920
+A تحمل أسرع أسرع من B فماذا هي الإجابة؟ أيه أفضل؟
+
+70
+00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:28,460
+A أو B؟ أو أيه أفضل؟ A أو B؟ B لأن B أفضل من I
+
+71
+00:06:28,460 --> 00:06:33,700
+حسنًا وبعض الناس ممكن تسأل، حسنًا، A تحافظ على
+
+72
+00:06:33,700 --> 00:06:37,880
+أعلى إعادة أو أعلى خطر؟ لذا، لماذا يجب أن أحافظ
+
+73
+00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:45,560
+على أكثر خطر؟ حسنًا،
+
+74
+00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:50,880
+فالمشكلة هي ... هي
+
+75
+00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:57,200
+... ما هي استخدام E وما هي استخدام P؟ استخدام
+
+76
+00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:03,920
+المنفعة ايش أنا مستفيد من A؟ واِيش أنا مستفيد من B؟
+
+77
+00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:06,120
+this is the ... this is the things you remember
+
+78
+00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,540
+they ... when I talk about Sharpe Ratio مذاكرين لما
+
+79
+00:07:09,540 --> 00:07:13,060
+حكيت عن Sharpe Ratio؟ أه ... الأسبوع الفات 
+
+80
+00:07:13,060 --> 00:07:19,300
+مذاكرين؟ ايش Sharpe Ratio بتحكي؟ Sharpe Ratio
+
+81
+00:07:19,300 --> 00:07:26,860
+بتحكي link the expected return with the risk so if
+
+82
+00:07:26,860 --> 00:07:31,470
+I have one unit in risk كمية تخلق أو تخلق عدد عدد
+
+83
+00:07:31,470 --> 00:07:32,090
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+84
+00:07:32,090 --> 00:07:35,650
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+85
+00:07:35,650 --> 00:07:36,090
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+86
+00:07:36,090 --> 00:07:37,470
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+87
+00:07:37,470 --> 00:07:39,030
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+88
+00:07:39,030 --> 00:07:47,550
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+89
+00:07:47,550 --> 00:07:57,250
+عد
+
+90
+00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:03,640
+with a return utility of P is a function of risk
+
+91
+00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:09,080
+and return يعني هي المنفعة يعني خلينا نعطيكم مثال
+
+92
+00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:15,100
+بسيط على المنفعة لو جبنا احنا شخصين عطشان وجبنا
+
+93
+00:08:15,100 --> 00:08:19,480
+كاسة مي قلنا له تفضل هذه تفضل هذه مين أكثر واحد
+
+94
+00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:25,220
+بيستفيد من كاسة مي it depends العطشان بالأخير أنه
+
+95
+00:08:25,220 --> 00:08:28,770
+this is holding the same amount of of water and
+
+96
+00:08:28,770 --> 00:08:31,190
+this is the same amount of water the same thing
+
+97
+00:08:31,190 --> 00:08:37,890
+but the difference is the utility المنفعة how the
+
+98
+00:08:37,890 --> 00:08:41,170
+water utilize you when you are getting thirsty
+
+99
+00:08:41,170 --> 00:08:45,610
+it's important to take the water if you are not so
+
+100
+00:08:45,610 --> 00:08:48,150
+it is not important to you يعني إذا كنا احنا
+
+101
+00:08:48,150 --> 00:08:53,250
+عطشانين الماء مهمة بالنسبة لنا بس إذا ما كناش it
+
+102
+00:08:53,250 --> 00:08:57,910
+doesn't matter then الـ risk لو أجينا احنا حكينا في
+
+103
+00:08:57,910 --> 00:09:03,610
+عندنا فـ ... في عندنا سهم A risk وعالي risk ومنخفض
+
+104
+00:09:03,610 --> 00:09:11,650
+lower risk okay وسهم B is higher risk okay صعب لو
+
+105
+00:09:11,650 --> 00:09:14,990
+أجينا احنا حكينا مثال لو احنا الـ ... الناس الـ
+
+106
+00:09:14,990 --> 00:09:21,710
+investors in B ناس very rich people يعني ناس rich
+
+107
+00:09:23,940 --> 00:09:29,040
+إذا ما عندهم مش مشكلة في B، لأ they are rich، إذا
+
+108
+00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:33,760
+they ... the utility of B is good for them، يعني
+
+109
+00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:37,660
+منفعة B كويسة لهم، however the utility of A is not
+
+110
+00:09:37,660 --> 00:09:43,930
+good for them، المنفعة بتاعة A مش مهمة لهم لكن if
+
+111
+00:09:43,930 --> 00:09:47,370
+the opposite لو احنا أخذنا عادي that's normal
+
+112
+00:09:47,370 --> 00:09:50,610
+people يعني الناس عاديين ممكن they prefer a rather
+
+113
+00:09:50,610 --> 00:09:54,490
+than b because the utility of a is greater than b
+
+114
+00:09:54,490 --> 00:09:59,410
+so the idea here is the utility depends on the
+
+115
+00:09:59,410 --> 00:10:04,530
+criteria of people الـ utility بتعتمد على ايش؟ على
+
+116
+00:10:04,530 --> 00:10:08,490
+الـ criteria تبع الناس يعني على خصائص الناس لما أنا
+
+117
+00:10:08,490 --> 00:10:13,860
+أعطيتكم مثلاً قلنا جبنا كاسة مي لواحد ولا لآخر واحد
+
+118
+00:10:13,860 --> 00:10:17,620
+استفاد منها وواحد ما استفادش منها it means we are the
+
+119
+00:10:17,620 --> 00:10:20,240
+same people يعني وخلّيني أقول the same weight نفس
+
+120
+00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,420
+الوزن okay ونفس الجنس ونفس الأشياء قلنا لها أفضل
+
+121
+00:10:23,420 --> 00:10:26,340
+هاي كاسة ماي وأنت كاسة ماي you see and evaluate
+
+122
+00:10:26,340 --> 00:10:33,120
+the utility وخلّينا نقرر بالـ utility so
+
+123
+00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,860
+it depends on the criteria so what is the criteria
+
+124
+00:10:35,860 --> 00:10:39,120
+of ... of ... of the people from the investment
+
+125
+00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:43,210
+point of view من وجهة نظر المستثمرين is a is 
+
+126
+00:10:43,210 --> 00:10:49,110
+measured by A, A is risk preferences tool يعني
+
+127
+00:10:49,110 --> 00:10:52,570
+احنا بنجيس يعني لما يجينا يجيبنا كأس الماء كيف
+
+128
+00:10:52,570 --> 00:10:54,750
+عرفنا ال utility تبعته، قداش هو عطشان، قداش
+
+129
+00:10:54,750 --> 00:10:58,530
+هستفيد، صح؟ فكل ما زاد عطشه، كل ما بده استفادته 
+
+130
+00:10:58,530 --> 00:11:03,550
+أكثر من الماء، ال A هي measure لل utility لل risk
+
+131
+00:11:03,550 --> 00:11:09,400
+preferences, measure لل risk preferences يعني قداش
+
+132
+00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:13,740
+هو بيفضل و قداش هو ببتعد عن المخاطر هذه، ال A يتم 
+
+133
+00:11:13,740 --> 00:11:17,380
+تقديرها يعني لو أنا جيت عملت interview مع كل 
+
+134
+00:11:17,380 --> 00:11:21,540
+كل واحد one by one عشان أقرر which a، هلاقي أنه في
+
+135
+00:11:21,540 --> 00:11:26,280
+many A's in this class، كل واحدة الها A مختلفة عن
+
+136
+00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:31,880
+الأخرى يعني واحدة مثلا يعني أمورها تمام بتدرس منيح
+
+137
+00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:40,100
+يعني very sticky with her study، so ال A بتكون يعني دي
+
+138
+00:11:40,100 --> 00:11:44,040
+متوسطة، واحدة من البنات مش موضوع كتير الدراسة يعني
+
+139
+00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:48,760
+this studying is for enjoyment، so ال A will deal with
+
+140
+00:11:49,830 --> 00:11:52,690
+يعني في ناس جايين دراستهم for on جامعة يعني
+
+141
+00:11:52,690 --> 00:11:55,010
+just to go to the university and see the people
+
+142
+00:11:55,010 --> 00:11:58,990
+and you can chitchat with other people، no، ال study is
+
+143
+00:11:58,990 --> 00:12:01,610
+for the future for them، is the future for them
+
+144
+00:12:01,610 --> 00:12:04,610
+الناس لأ، ال study is future for them، so they
+
+145
+00:12:04,610 --> 00:12:08,970
+cannot gamble on this، ما في عندهم gambling، okay
+
+146
+00:12:08,970 --> 00:12:12,850
+فبتكون ال A تبعتهم عالية كتير، so it depends ايش
+
+147
+00:12:12,850 --> 00:12:15,990
+المستوى بتاع ال A للشخص يعني خلينا أعطيكم مثال
+
+148
+00:12:15,990 --> 00:12:21,470
+بدينا في حكينا أنه في عندنا old man و حكينا في young
+
+149
+00:12:21,470 --> 00:12:29,510
+man، okay، very young، ال old man ال risk preference
+
+150
+00:12:29,510 --> 00:12:34,750
+تبعته هتكون عالية ولا مخفضة؟ طب خليني أسألك، ال risk
+
+151
+00:12:34,750 --> 00:12:37,650
+avoiding، avoiding، avoiding risk عالية ولا مخفضة
+
+152
+00:12:37,650 --> 00:12:45,210
+avoiding risk عالية، okay، إذا ال A هتكون high، ال
+
+153
+00:12:45,210 --> 00:12:48,950
+young man هتكون ال risk avoider تبعته عالية ولا
+
+154
+00:12:48,950 --> 00:12:51,760
+مخفضة، مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة 
+
+155
+00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:52,380
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+156
+00:12:52,380 --> 00:12:58,400
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+157
+00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:07,620
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+158
+00:13:07,620 --> 00:13:11,240
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+159
+00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:15,140
+مخافة
+
+160
+00:13:15,140 --> 00:13:16,540
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+161
+00:13:16,540 --> 00:13:16,620
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+162
+00:13:20,260 --> 00:13:24,960
+ونحكي مثلا الصبح أنا كنت ب .. يعني بتابع تقرير
+
+163
+00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:30,420
+بيجيبوا على ال BBC، بيجيبوا على Bloomberg stars
+
+164
+00:13:30,420 --> 00:13:36,680
+from Asia، stars from Asia يعني نجوم من آسيا، هدول
+
+165
+00:13:36,680 --> 00:13:39,000
+بيجيبوا the big people in Asia، طبعا مش ال
+
+166
+00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:42,000
+politicians، people، مش الناس بيحكوا في السياسة، لأ
+
+167
+00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:47,520
+ناس they do changes in their life or in the people's
+
+168
+00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:53,410
+life، فكانوا جايبين عن سيدة صينية، she's a business
+
+169
+00:13:53,410 --> 00:14:00,210
+lady، هذه بتكون risk neutral، عالية كتير عندها، اه
+
+170
+00:14:00,210 --> 00:14:03,290
+فدخلت
+
+171
+00:14:03,290 --> 00:14:06,550
+في مشروع، مشروع اللي هو ال fabric industries اللي
+
+172
+00:14:06,550 --> 00:14:11,250
+هي غيرت كتير في شكل الاقتصاد الصيني، فكان هي احتمال
+
+173
+00:14:11,250 --> 00:14:16,270
+الفشل عالي كتير، فتعاون ال .. تعاون Bloomberg بيقول
+
+174
+00:14:16,270 --> 00:14:20,240
+يعني why you take this risk؟ So some people in
+
+175
+00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:25,020
+nature they love risk، وفينا أصلا they don't want
+
+176
+00:14:25,020 --> 00:14:28,820
+to take the risk، فهذه ال risk تبعها تقترب إلى ال
+
+177
+00:14:28,820 --> 00:14:33,680
+zero، اللي ال A تبعتها تقترب إلى ال zero، يعني كل ما
+
+178
+00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:38,000
+احنا ماشينا على الشمال يعني وصلنا لل A zero يعني
+
+179
+00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:44,300
+إذا أخذنا هذا هيك scale وكان هنا zero، كل ما أنا
+
+180
+00:14:44,300 --> 00:14:50,440
+ببعد عن الصفر بيصير عنده risk avoiding، بيزيد avoiding
+
+181
+00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:55,660
+risk، بيزيد، كل أنا باجي بقترب لل zero بكون ال risk
+
+182
+00:14:55,660 --> 00:15:02,680
+lover، بيزيد، okay، when you are zero here it means
+
+183
+00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:08,180
+you are risk neutral، risk neutral، it means you you
+
+184
+00:15:08,180 --> 00:15:12,780
+are enjoying in risk، أنت يعني risk is enjoyment، is
+
+185
+00:15:12,780 --> 00:15:17,950
+like gambling، okay، so this is the idea، is this new
+
+186
+00:15:17,950 --> 00:15:24,670
+for you؟ هل هذا الكلام جديد لانتم على ال risk؟ طبعا
+
+187
+00:15:24,670 --> 00:15:28,510
+بال .. بال investments المتقدم، طبعا مش موضوعنا
+
+188
+00:15:28,510 --> 00:15:30,830
+احنا how to measure A موجود في الكتاب، how to
+
+189
+00:15:30,830 --> 00:15:36,410
+measure A، يعني ممكن أنا عملنا test و examples يعني
+
+190
+00:15:36,410 --> 00:15:41,490
+how we can measure A، يعني بعطيكم أنا استبيان و
+
+191
+00:15:41,490 --> 00:15:47,110
+بتعبوا الاستبيان بقدر أعرف ال A لكل واحدة فيكم، طبعا
+
+192
+00:15:47,110 --> 00:15:51,670
+ولو ال A هتيجي من from alpha، from alpha يعني from
+
+193
+00:15:51,670 --> 00:15:56,230
+alpha to zero، هتكون من alpha to zero يعني from
+
+194
+00:15:56,230 --> 00:16:00,110
+infinity، so as I said the utility model gives the
+
+195
+00:16:00,110 --> 00:16:02,810
+optimal allocation between a risky portfolio and a
+
+196
+00:16:02,810 --> 00:16:06,770
+risk-free asset، what it means، it means once we
+
+197
+00:16:06,770 --> 00:16:13,150
+know the utility، so we can easily form the
+
+198
+00:16:13,150 --> 00:16:16,890
+portfolios، ممكن احنا سهل نعمل portfolios، portfolios
+
+199
+00:16:16,890 --> 00:16:19,750
+يعني محفظة، because this portfolio includes risky
+
+200
+00:16:19,750 --> 00:16:23,070
+asset، يعني asset بتكون عالية المخاطر، and risk-free
+
+201
+00:16:23,070 --> 00:16:29,390
+asset، و asset متخفضة المخاطر، okay، based on the
+
+202
+00:16:29,390 --> 00:16:33,430
+utility or based on the A، ال A اللي هو risk
+
+203
+00:16:33,430 --> 00:16:38,390
+preferencing or risk avoiding، we should know about
+
+204
+00:16:38,390 --> 00:16:42,710
+what it means، speculation، الكتير بنسمع بال ..
+
+205
+00:16:42,710 --> 00:16:46,050
+بالنشرات الاقتصادية مثلا، إذا فتحنا Bloomberg ولا
+
+206
+00:16:46,050 --> 00:16:51,370
+فتحنا مثلا CNN ولا ال BBC ولا ال Reuters ولا هدول
+
+207
+00:16:51,370 --> 00:16:53,830
+الناس يعني، I recommend you to do this at least
+
+208
+00:16:53,830 --> 00:16:56,690
+يعني five ten minutes in the morning، you just
+
+209
+00:16:56,690 --> 00:17:01,490
+listen، يعني بدل ما احنا نسمع شغلات مش كتير بتلزم
+
+210
+00:17:01,490 --> 00:17:07,730
+اه، يعني just focus on this speculation، speculation
+
+211
+00:17:09,140 --> 00:17:13,060
+taking considerable risk for a concerted gain، ال
+
+212
+00:17:13,060 --> 00:17:19,420
+speculation is a risk، مخاطر، okay، but is calculated
+
+213
+00:17:19,420 --> 00:17:27,960
+risk، الفرق فيها أنها is calculated risk، okay، risk
+
+214
+00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:32,060
+مخاطر يعني مخاطر محسوبة، بتعرفوا المخاطر المحسوبة
+
+215
+00:17:32,060 --> 00:17:38,170
+ال speculation، يعني أنا زي ال lady اللي احنا حكينا
+
+216
+00:17:38,170 --> 00:17:40,830
+معاها .. حكينا الصبح وشوفنا التقرير تبع ال star،
+
+217
+00:17:40,830 --> 00:17:44,590
+روحوا أنتم على Bloomberg واكتبوا Asia .. stars
+
+218
+00:17:44,590 --> 00:17:47,630
+from Asia، في كتير تقارير كتير حلوة أنتم
+
+219
+00:17:47,630 --> 00:17:50,650
+هتستفيدوا منها، بعرف أنا احتمالات خسارتي و
+
+220
+00:17:50,650 --> 00:17:55,880
+احتمالات ربحي، this is speculation، فمرات أثناء
+
+221
+00:17:55,880 --> 00:18:00,240
+الحديث you speculate on him، يعني هل تقامر عليه، ال
+
+222
+00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,300
+.. ف is is calculated، يعني أنا احتمال أربح و
+
+223
+00:18:03,300 --> 00:18:08,420
+احتمال أخسر، بقى is calculated، okay، parties have
+
+224
+00:18:08,420 --> 00:18:13,720
+heterogeneous expectations، ال parties الأشخاص
+
+225
+00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:21,400
+عندهم ال heterogeneous expectations، الأشخاص
+
+226
+00:18:23,300 --> 00:18:27,800
+عندهم وجهات نظر مختلفة، كل واحد عنده وجهات نظر
+
+227
+00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:31,320
+مختلفة، وبالتالي ما في .. يعني إذا احنا إجينا
+
+228
+00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:38,500
+حاكينا، عندي سهم سعره ثلاثين، سهم سعره ثلاثين اليوم
+
+229
+00:18:38,500 --> 00:18:43,320
+طب بكرا كده ايش هيك يصير؟ ففي ناس بيقولوا is up، is
+
+230
+00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,900
+down، okay
+
+231
+00:18:46,900 --> 00:18:48,840
+فهذا في عندنا heterogeneous belief
+
+232
+00:18:51,690 --> 00:18:56,370
+ال gamble، إذا أخذنا ال speculation، أخذنا شغل اسمها
+
+233
+00:18:56,370 --> 00:18:59,970
+speculation، ال speculation is calculated risk، يعني
+
+234
+00:18:59,970 --> 00:19:02,770
+زي ما أنتم شايفينها، taken considerable risk، يعني
+
+235
+00:19:02,770 --> 00:19:09,750
+risk محسوب، مقابل ما أنا أخد المخاطر هذه بدي أخد
+
+236
+00:19:09,750 --> 00:19:15,170
+العائد، gamble، طب ايش الفرق بين ال gamble و ال
+
+237
+00:19:15,170 --> 00:19:19,170
+speculation؟ gamble مقامرة، مقامرة
+
+238
+00:19:24,420 --> 00:19:30,060
+لأ هو مش مثال، ات مش عارفها هي
+
+239
+00:19:30,060 --> 00:19:36,180
+is gambling is a part of enjoyment، okay، is a part
+
+240
+00:19:36,180 --> 00:19:39,860
+of enjoyment، يعني جزء من ال enjoyment، الاش ال
+
+241
+00:19:39,860 --> 00:19:46,540
+enjoyment، خليني
+
+242
+00:19:46,540 --> 00:19:51,980
+اوضحلكم اياها، خليني أوضحلكم اياها، هلأ نيجي لوحد
+
+243
+00:19:54,210 --> 00:19:58,070
+بإنسان عادي، بروحش ع speculation، بروح ع شغل اسمه
+
+244
+00:19:58,070 --> 00:20:04,390
+investment، استثمار، استثمار، rational منطقي، ما بغامرش
+
+245
+00:20:04,390 --> 00:20:09,870
+في الفلوس تبعته، هلما تبدأ ثروته تكبر، ممكن يبدأ
+
+246
+00:20:09,870 --> 00:20:13,790
+طبعا، وفي عنده ال criteria انه يعمل مخاطر، فهيعمل
+
+247
+00:20:13,790 --> 00:20:18,990
+شغل اسمه speculation، هيبدأ يتخذ مخاطر معينة محدودة
+
+248
+00:20:18,990 --> 00:20:25,220
+طيب هل الزلمة هذا ثروته تبعته كبرت كتير؟ فهيدخل ع
+
+249
+00:20:25,220 --> 00:20:30,820
+شغل اسمه gambling، gambling، معناه كلام حتى لو خسر
+
+250
+00:20:30,820 --> 00:20:34,460
+مش هيتأثر على الثروة تبعته، يعني مثلا 
+
+251
+00:20:37,490 --> 00:20:40,850
+أه مصبرة هلأ الـ gambling يعني أعطيكم مثال لو
+
+252
+00:20:40,850 --> 00:20:44,750
+أجينا احنا شوفنا الـ gambling إيش بيسووا يعني اليوم
+
+253
+00:20:44,750 --> 00:20:48,970
+مثلا بارح أو قبل كانت مبارحة بين مثلا برشلونة 
+
+254
+00:20:48,970 --> 00:20:52,910
+وريال مدريد إيش في الـ gambling الـ gambling بيحكوا
+
+255
+00:20:52,910 --> 00:20:56,470
+مش بس في النتائج بيقولوا إنه بأي دقيقة هيدخل الجون
+
+256
+00:20:56,470 --> 00:21:01,650
+هذا gambling و مين هيدخل الجون و من أي متر
+
+257
+00:21:01,650 --> 00:21:05,970
+وبالتالي this is gambling مخاطر is for enjoyment
+
+258
+00:21:08,030 --> 00:21:12,310
+للإيش لل enjoyment لتسلية وهذا فاكرهاش انه so is
+
+259
+00:21:12,310 --> 00:21:19,530
+uncertain outcome outcome for enjoyment للإيش شغل
+
+260
+00:21:19,530 --> 00:21:23,330
+مش مع .. يعني uncertain غير مؤكدة for enjoyment بس
+
+261
+00:21:23,330 --> 00:21:26,590
+هذا مين بيمارسها؟ ما ينفعش يمارسها اللي زي و اللي زي
+
+262
+00:21:26,590 --> 00:21:30,850
+.. مش العالي كمان يعني .. يعني يا بنات في غزة كلها
+
+263
+00:21:30,850 --> 00:21:34,190
+جداش احنا في غزة كلها ما فيش حد ممكن يعمل كلام هذا
+
+264
+00:21:34,190 --> 00:21:39,220
+إلا إذا .. إذا بيعملها بكون ..بيكون فيه مشكلة عنده
+
+265
+00:21:39,220 --> 00:21:43,600
+وانتوا عارفين what it means في الـ gambling يعني
+
+266
+00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,680
+إذا بيعمل gambling مع الكراه هتكون مشكلة كبيرة
+
+267
+00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:51,140
+عنده اه
+
+268
+00:21:51,140 --> 00:21:54,860
+بس هان يعني كدهش يعني ثروة أكبر و أكبر زعيم تفزع
+
+269
+00:21:54,860 --> 00:21:55,000
+يعني
+
+270
+00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,940
+يعني بتعتمد على الـ wealth فهدول الـ gambler يعني زي
+
+271
+00:22:01,940 --> 00:22:06,420
+مثلا أحكيكي مثلا ممكن يكون شخصيات مثلا big players
+
+272
+00:22:06,420 --> 00:22:10,660
+رونالدو مثلا ولا ممكن يكون زي Bill Gates هدول ممكن
+
+273
+00:22:10,660 --> 00:22:13,000
+يعملوا gambling لإنه حتى لو خسر مش هتكون عنده
+
+274
+00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:19,260
+مشكلة بس يعني لو خسرها لو كان عنده ثروة وقداش نص
+
+275
+00:22:19,260 --> 00:22:22,560
+مليار دولار ممكن تصل؟ ما ظننيش وبالتالي ممكن يتأثر
+
+276
+00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,500
+على الثروة تبعتهم Okay parties assign the same
+
+277
+00:22:26,500 --> 00:22:29,420
+probabilities to possible outcomes في الـ gambling
+
+278
+00:22:29,420 --> 00:22:34,300
+parties assign the same probabilities to the
+
+279
+00:22:34,300 --> 00:22:37,460
+possible outcomes يعني الأشخاص اللي بيعملوا
+
+280
+00:22:37,460 --> 00:22:42,960
+gambling يعني نيجي عندنا مثلا خمسين حصان بدهم
+
+281
+00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:48,700
+يتسابقوا و أنا بعمل gamble على حصان واحد و واحد
+
+282
+00:22:48,700 --> 00:22:51,800
+بعمل على حصان التالي و التالي نسبة اللي احنا نربح
+
+283
+00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:57,500
+واحد من الخمسين تمام؟ وبالتالي الأشخاص الآخرين
+
+284
+00:22:57,500 --> 00:23:01,720
+عندهم نفس الاحتمال للربح فإذا وصلنا إنه احنا كلنا
+
+285
+00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,840
+ما أكلناها عندنا نفس الاحتمالات فبكون gambling
+
+286
+00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:08,160
+okay
+
+287
+00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,780
+investors are willing to consider الـ investors
+
+288
+00:23:11,780 --> 00:23:18,820
+بعكس الـ speculator وعكس الـ gambling لأنه الـ
+
+289
+00:23:18,820 --> 00:23:22,770
+investors are rational طب ليش احنا بحكيلكوا الكلام
+
+290
+00:23:22,770 --> 00:23:28,050
+هذا لأنه عشان تعرفوا مخاطر الـ investments ما نكونش
+
+291
+00:23:28,050 --> 00:23:34,270
+احنا ما نكونش speculator إذا كان speculator ممكن
+
+292
+00:23:34,270 --> 00:23:41,750
+يكون بحسوبة و gambling okay؟
+
+293
+00:23:42,390 --> 00:23:45,450
+يعني مثلا إجاني شخص هاطيكم مثال على الـ gambling و
+
+294
+00:23:45,450 --> 00:23:48,270
+هذا ممكن تكون أنا حكيت المفروض ما تكونش لكن إذا
+
+295
+00:23:48,270 --> 00:23:50,830
+كانت موجودة عندنا في غزة ما عقوب .. ما عقوب في مشكلة
+
+296
+00:23:50,830 --> 00:23:54,010
+عند الشخص اللي بيعملها يعني إجاني واحد من الشارع و
+
+297
+00:23:54,010 --> 00:23:58,750
+قال لي والله اسمع و في استثمار أعطيني بس ألف دولار
+
+298
+00:23:58,750 --> 00:24:02,490
+بجيبلك خمس ألف دولار و أنا مغمض هذا إيش gambling
+
+299
+00:24:02,490 --> 00:24:08,120
+يعني إيش gambling يعني زي لعب بالجمار لو كان إيش مكان
+
+300
+00:24:08,120 --> 00:24:12,860
+هذا الشخص هذا .. هذا إيش اسمه gambling معناه لعب
+
+301
+00:24:12,860 --> 00:24:15,080
+بالجمار كيف اللي بيلعبوا بال .. بالجمار على ال
+
+302
+00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:19,620
+روليت اياه بالظبط مش هتفرق كتير لأنه ما فيش حسب ال
+
+303
+00:24:19,620 --> 00:24:24,100
+.. الاستثمارات في العالم يعني أكثر استثمار .. أكثر
+
+304
+00:24:24,100 --> 00:24:27,560
+استثمار ممكن ي .. بالاستثمارات العالم إذا استثمرنا
+
+305
+00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:32,940
+بمحفظة دولية هتعطينا 6% نضربها في 2 و 12% ماشي بس
+
+306
+00:24:32,940 --> 00:24:36,440
+أنا قاعد بيقولي الألف دولار بتجيب خمس تلات يعني
+
+307
+00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:40,520
+ما عندي 500% هذا و احنا مغنطين this is gambling فهو
+
+308
+00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:45,860
+حرام هيعطينا الألف دولارهذا الألف دولار بالنسبة له
+
+309
+00:24:45,860 --> 00:24:48,960
+للشخص اللي بياخدها is enjoyment قاعد بلعب في فلوس
+
+310
+00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,400
+الناس for enjoyment فهو قاعد بيجرب في شغل بيجرب في
+
+311
+00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:57,940
+آخر و اللي تظبط معاه أمورها تمشي so investors will
+
+312
+00:24:57,940 --> 00:25:01,480
+need to consider risk-free assets المستثمرين بدهم
+
+313
+00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:06,780
+دائما بالاستثمار سبعهم بيقارنوا
+
+314
+00:25:06,780 --> 00:25:11,300
+الاستثمار سبعتهم بالـ free risk assets يعني أي
+
+315
+00:25:11,300 --> 00:25:13,700
+استثمار أنا بعمله يعني زي ما أنا أعطيكم مثال بقول
+
+316
+00:25:13,700 --> 00:25:19,360
+الـ asset الدولي الاستثمارات في العالم اليوم بتعطي
+
+317
+00:25:19,360 --> 00:25:25,020
+1.75% بتعطي عائد هذا الاستثمارات العادية يعني
+
+318
+00:25:25,020 --> 00:25:29,460
+خلاني أحكي اللي مخاطرها أقل شيء وبالتالي أنا بقارن
+
+319
+00:25:29,460 --> 00:25:35,300
+كل الاستثمارات بالـ risk-free لما ييجي واحد يقول في
+
+320
+00:25:35,300 --> 00:25:39,380
+استثمار بيعطي 500% ما عندي كلام إياهشمع كلام
+
+321
+00:25:39,380 --> 00:25:43,920
+gambling جداش لأنه بعيد عن 1.75 Speculative
+
+322
+00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:47,960
+positions with positive risk premiums نيجي نحكي ..
+
+323
+00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:56,180
+نشوف كيف الـ .. الـ risk-free assets زي
+
+324
+00:25:56,180 --> 00:25:59,640
+ما أنتو بتعرفوا إنه high .. high risk-free assets
+
+325
+00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:04,400
+النقطة هذه risk-free ما فيش فيها مخاطر فكل ما أنا
+
+326
+00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:12,810
+أزيد في الـ .. المنطقة هذه فيها speculation المنطقة
+
+327
+00:26:12,810 --> 00:26:18,310
+اللي فوق هيك فيها gambling المنطقة
+
+328
+00:26:18,310 --> 00:26:25,030
+هذه فيها conservative investments محافظة
+
+329
+00:26:25,030 --> 00:26:32,210
+فكل ما زاد المخاطر كل ما زادت العائد وبالتالي أنا
+
+330
+00:26:32,210 --> 00:26:39,290
+بقارن نفسي مع الـ risk free كل ما المخاطر بتزيد بطلب
+
+331
+00:26:39,290 --> 00:26:47,190
+premium بطلب reward عاقد بطلب مكافأة لسبب المخاطر
+
+332
+00:26:47,190 --> 00:26:51,090
+الزيادة اللي أنا اتحملتها portfolio attractiveness
+
+333
+00:26:51,090 --> 00:26:53,350
+increase with expected return and decrease with
+
+334
+00:26:53,350 --> 00:27:03,410
+risk المحافظ اللي بتشد انتباهنا و بتكون محافظ جذابة
+
+335
+00:27:03,410 --> 00:27:07,890
+لنا هي المحافظ اللي بتزيد الـ expected return
+
+336
+00:27:07,890 --> 00:27:19,770
+العائد و بتقلل المخاطر طيب انتبهوا معناها هي هل
+
+337
+00:27:19,770 --> 00:27:24,470
+جذبت انتباهها؟ خلينا نشوف انتبهوا معناها النقطة هي
+
+338
+00:27:25,820 --> 00:27:36,080
+حكينا إنه هاي A و B وعنا C وعنا مثلا D و F، كلهم على
+
+339
+00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:41,020
+خط السوق، إذا بستثمر فيهم individually، إذا بستثمر
+
+340
+00:27:41,020 --> 00:27:45,980
+فيهم individually، يعني كل واحدة لحال، بنحصل على
+
+341
+00:27:45,980 --> 00:27:50,540
+العوائد على خط السوق لكن أنا هدفي أن أحصل على محفظة
+
+342
+00:27:50,540 --> 00:27:56,000
+استثمارية تقلل المخاطر وتزيد العقد كيف؟ لو أنا
+
+343
+00:27:56,000 --> 00:28:01,740
+أخدت مثلا .. أخدت اللي بضحوط عليهم سيركر A و F و D
+
+344
+00:28:01,740 --> 00:28:10,220
+بضحوطهم مع بعض في محفظة إيش هيصير عندي؟ هيصير عندي
+
+345
+00:28:10,220 --> 00:28:17,570
+ممكن تكون المحفظة موجودة في هذا المكان بدي أخد A و
+
+346
+00:28:17,570 --> 00:28:21,390
+F و D بدي أحطهم في محفظة الاستثمارية يعني معايا أنا
+
+347
+00:28:21,390 --> 00:28:25,350
+الألف دولار الألف دولار ممكن أنا استثمرها في A
+
+348
+00:28:25,350 --> 00:28:30,970
+لواحدة أو ممكن استثمرها في F لواحدة أو ممكن
+
+349
+00:28:30,970 --> 00:28:39,190
+استثمرها في A و F و D نوزعهم على التلاتة إيش
+
+350
+00:28:39,190 --> 00:28:46,110
+راح يصير؟ حيصير عندي ممكن يكون العائد Okay العائد
+
+351
+00:28:46,110 --> 00:28:51,950
+يكون في المنطقة هذه تشوفوا كده أو هنحكي العائد
+
+352
+00:28:51,950 --> 00:28:59,370
+موجود في هذه المكانة okay في
+
+353
+00:28:59,370 --> 00:29:04,930
+النقطة هذه هذه إيش بتكون عبارة عن تجميع A و F و D
+
+354
+00:29:04,930 --> 00:29:11,650
+طب السؤال ليش؟ واحد فيكو هيحكي طب okay هي عبارة عن
+
+355
+00:29:11,650 --> 00:29:18,020
+A و F و D عبارة عن مجموع الأسهم التلاتة بقولكم صح
+
+356
+00:29:18,020 --> 00:29:22,240
+هذا من وجهة نظر الـ logic تبعتكم but from the
+
+357
+00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:27,160
+mathematical point of view من وجهة نظر محاسبية A
+
+358
+00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:32,400
+لها علاقة في F و A لها علاقة في D و F لها علاقة في
+
+359
+00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:38,700
+D و A لها علاقة في A وبالتالي لما من ناحية رياضية
+
+360
+00:29:38,700 --> 00:29:46,040
+بيبطل مجموع العوائد هو مجموع أوزانهم هتتغير الشكل
+
+361
+00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,000
+الرياضي يعني المعادلات الرياضية هتسمح لي أن أنا
+
+362
+00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:53,100
+أزيد العائد و أقلل المخاطر طبعا هذا شوية بنحكي فيه
+
+363
+00:29:53,100 --> 00:29:57,120
+في المستقبل طيب
+
+364
+00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:03,200
+what happens when return increases with risk طب
+
+365
+00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:08,040
+إيش بيصير لما الـ return بيزيد مع الـ risk؟ الـ return
+
+366
+00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,520
+بيزيد مع الـ risk مع كلام أنا ما استفدتش من
+
+367
+00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:15,000
+المحافظة الاستثمارية المحافظة الاستثمارية إنه أنا
+
+368
+00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:21,420
+مجمع مجموعة أدوات استثمارية بحيث إنه تزيد للعائد و
+
+369
+00:30:21,420 --> 00:30:25,460
+تقلل المخاطر هذا الهدف هذا الشغل اللي بيقصد فيه
+
+370
+00:30:25,460 --> 00:30:32,680
+الاستثمار سمعنا نتطلع احنا على الشكل هذا لو طلعنا
+
+371
+00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,900
+هاي portfolio low risk و medium risk و high risk
+
+372
+00:30:37,530 --> 00:30:45,450
+الـ risk premium 2% الـ expected return 7% الـ risk بيزيد
+
+373
+00:30:45,450 --> 00:30:52,790
+لكن في الـ portfolios زي ما نراه كمشوي إنه ممكن
+
+374
+00:30:52,790 --> 00:30:58,650
+تزيد العائد و المخاطر تنخفض إذا احنا عملنا
+
+375
+00:30:58,650 --> 00:31:05,670
+portfolios معينة utility
+
+376
+00:31:05,670 --> 00:31:13,310
+الـ utility function آخر شيء نحكي فيه عشان إنه to 
+
+377
+00:31:13,310 --> 00:31:15,970
+summarize the subject utility function utility
+
+378
+00:31:15,970 --> 00:31:20,710
+اللي هو المنفعة حكينا احنا ركزوا يا بنات معناها
+
+379
+00:31:20,710 --> 00:31:28,130
+okay حكينا أن المنفعة هي بتحدد العلاقة بين ال
+
+380
+00:31:28,130 --> 00:31:31,530
+return وبين ال risk مع بعض بتحطهم وبالتالي لما
+
+381
+00:31:31,530 --> 00:31:35,830
+أنا بحكي you الـ utility بتساوي الـ expected return
+
+382
+00:31:35,830 --> 00:31:41,810
+اللي هو هذا الجانب as a function of this بس as a
+
+383
+00:31:41,810 --> 00:31:45,570
+function of this هو الفرق بين مخاطر استثمارين
+
+384
+00:31:45,570 --> 00:31:50,450
+وقلنا الفرق بين شغلتين هي نصف الفرق صح لما قلنا ما
+
+385
+00:31:50,450 --> 00:31:55,470
+هو الفرق بين خمسة أو عشرة وبالتالي U is equal to
+
+386
+00:31:55,470 --> 00:32:02,830
+the expected return minus half of sigma A or sigma 
+
+387
+00:32:02,830 --> 00:32:10,690
+تربيع A أعتقدوا إيش معناه إيه؟ إيش معناه إيه؟ ال
+
+388
+00:32:10,690 --> 00:32:18,830
+criteria تبعت كل واحد والـ sigma هي المخاطر في ال
+
+389
+00:32:18,830 --> 00:32:22,410
+expected return الـ utility هي بتساوي كده أنا عندي
+
+390
+00:32:22,410 --> 00:32:28,990
+عائد ناقص المخاطر أو ناقص نصف المخاطر expected
+
+391
+00:32:28,990 --> 00:32:33,650
+return أو a coefficient of risk aversion risk
+
+392
+00:32:33,650 --> 00:32:36,790
+aversion جداش نجلب المخاطر كل ما بتزيد الرقم هذا
+
+393
+00:32:36,790 --> 00:32:41,690
+بيزيد الـ risk aversion sigma squared variance of
+
+394
+00:32:41,690 --> 00:32:45,850
+returns half a scaling factor اللي هو معيار وقولنا
+
+395
+00:32:45,850 --> 00:32:51,930
+احنا شرحنا ليش احنا half هاي
+
+396
+00:32:51,930 --> 00:32:54,830
+المعادلة زي ما احنا كنا بنبنيها الحين اللي هو ال
+
+397
+00:32:54,830 --> 00:32:58,850
+utility عشان أنا اعرف جداش احنا بنستفيد لو طلعناها
+
+398
+00:32:58,850 --> 00:33:02,870
+الـ utility تبعت إيه بتساوي بتساوي الـ expected
+
+399
+00:33:02,870 --> 00:33:08,930
+return ناقص نص الـ sigma تربيع مضروبة في ال
+
+400
+00:33:08,930 --> 00:33:12,470
+preference بتاعتنا الـ a يعني كنا أول إيش نحكي
+
+401
+00:33:12,470 --> 00:33:16,170
+sigma تربيع بس بس اليوم لأ دخلنا الـ a لأن الـ a كل
+
+402
+00:33:16,170 --> 00:33:21,930
+واحد عنده preference خاصة فيه يعني أعطيكم مثل لو
+
+403
+00:33:21,930 --> 00:33:27,230
+أجينا احنا يا بنات لو أجينا احنا حكينا في عندنا اثنين
+
+404
+00:33:27,230 --> 00:33:31,870
+الـ a تبعته عالية كثير واحد الـ a تبعته تساوي مثلًا
+
+405
+00:33:31,870 --> 00:33:38,930
+خمسة والـ a تبعته تقترب إلى صفر يعني واحد ال
+
+406
+00:33:38,930 --> 00:33:43,610
+a تبعت أبو الخمسة أبو الواحد يعني لما بدي يربح
+
+407
+00:33:43,610 --> 00:33:47,770
+خمسة في المئة بيكونش مبسوط لأن هو بيكون مبسوط يا
+
+408
+00:33:47,770 --> 00:33:50,450
+إما بيربح خمسماية في المئة يا بيخسر خمسماية في المئة
+
+409
+00:33:51,970 --> 00:33:56,350
+لأنه قريب للـ risk neutral فهي لأن هذا الـ risk is
+
+410
+00:33:56,350 --> 00:33:58,510
+enjoyment for him فلما يكون عنده ربح خمسة في
+
+411
+00:33:58,510 --> 00:34:00,670
+الخمسة في المئة معاكينة this is not for enjoyment
+
+412
+00:34:00,670 --> 00:34:05,890
+لكن ابتدائي الـ a خمسة هذا he is close to
+
+413
+00:34:05,890 --> 00:34:09,610
+conservative هذا محافظ زي ما أعطيناكم الخط كل ما
+
+414
+00:34:09,610 --> 00:34:14,810
+بقترب للصفر بصير مخاطر بحبها وكل ما أبتعد بكون أنا
+
+415
+00:34:14,810 --> 00:34:19,620
+بـ avoid risk فزي ما شفنا الـ utility بتساوي ال
+
+416
+00:34:19,620 --> 00:34:24,680
+expected expected return minus half of risk
+
+417
+00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:28,800
+preference times of the sigma squared طلعوا هيك
+
+418
+00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:36,260
+هذا آخر جدول نحكي فيه investor risk طلعوا رقم
+
+419
+00:34:36,260 --> 00:34:41,600
+اثنين okay investor risk aversion اثنين ثلاثة ونص
+
+420
+00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:46,440
+خمسة سؤال بسيط من عنده risk aversion أعلى
+
+421
+00:34:49,170 --> 00:34:53,710
+أبو 2 ولا أبو الخمسة؟ أبو الخمسة طيب الـ utility
+
+422
+00:34:53,710 --> 00:34:58,330
+شوفوا الـ utility احنا طبخنا القانون العائد 7%
+
+423
+00:34:58,330 --> 00:35:02,710
+expected return اللي كلهم 7% احنا إيش هنغير هنغير
+
+424
+00:35:02,710 --> 00:35:08,590
+الـ a بس الـ نص نص الـ a زي ما تشوفين بس غيرنا الـ a
+
+425
+00:35:08,590 --> 00:35:13,150
+اثنين ثلاثة ونص لاحظنا
+
+426
+00:35:13,150 --> 00:35:24,640
+أن بتاع الـ two 6.75% بتاع الخمسة 6.38% علاقة عكسية
+
+427
+00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:33,760
+طيب نكمل إذا كانت تسعة برضه هنلاحظ شوفوا الفرق إذا
+
+428
+00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:37,280
+كانت ثلاثة عشر في المئة برضه شوفوا الفرق ثلاثة في
+
+429
+00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:41,520
+المئة تسعة في المئة تقريبًا ثلاثة أرباع يعني إذا كل
+
+430
+00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:47,070
+ما احنا بتكون الـ a سبعتنا أكثر كل ما كان الـ return
+
+431
+00:35:47,070 --> 00:35:50,490
+أعلى أو الـ utility خدوا بالكم الـ utility المنفع
+
+432
+00:35:50,490 --> 00:35:56,610
+أعلى فبناخد في عين الاعتبار طبعًا أنه أفضل ال
+
+433
+00:35:56,610 --> 00:36:03,710
+utility هذا أفضل رغم أنه المخاطر واحدة شوفوا احنا
+
+434
+00:36:03,710 --> 00:36:07,530
+ثبتنا المخاطر واحدة والعائد واحد بس روحنا إيش
+
+435
+00:36:07,530 --> 00:36:12,190
+غيرنا غيرنا بس الـ a إذا الكلام اللي كنا نحكي زي ما
+
+436
+00:36:12,190 --> 00:36:16,660
+إنه العائد والمخاطر علاقة أرضية هان بتجه في العلاقة
+
+437
+00:36:16,660 --> 00:36:20,400
+وبنقول لأ أن الأمر مش هيك مش بس risk و return لأ
+
+438
+00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:25,780
+القصة أنه في الـ individual preferences يعني واحد
+
+439
+00:36:25,780 --> 00:36:29,080
+مثلًا أعطيكم آخر شيء قبل ما نمشي اثنين راحوا على
+
+440
+00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:34,220
+البحر طلع أول واحد قال البحر كبير الثاني قال لأ يا
+
+441
+00:36:34,220 --> 00:36:39,600
+راجل هذا البحر صغير البحر هو البحر بس هذا is a
+
+442
+00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,770
+good swimmer and this is a bad swimmer يعني هذا
+
+443
+00:36:42,770 --> 00:36:45,490
+واحد سباح والثاني بيعرفش يسبح والثاني اللي بيعرفش
+
+444
+00:36:45,490 --> 00:36:50,510
+يسبح أكيد هيقول البحر كبير فبترجع لإيه اللي هو ال
+
+445
+00:36:50,510 --> 00:36:54,090
+preferences هذه الـ preferences كانت مجهولة في ال
+
+446
+00:36:54,090 --> 00:36:55,950
+investments اليوم احنا ضفناها في ال investments
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2e0fa3df96aa3000380be0c28a5852e037a98d2f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1784 @@
+1
+00:00:21,430 --> 00:00:24,590
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم ان شاء الله اليوم هنحكي ب
+
+2
+00:00:24,590 --> 00:00:26,930
+chapter 6 اللي هو risk aversion and capital
+
+3
+00:00:26,930 --> 00:00:31,470
+allocation risk aversion اللي هو تجنب المخاطر
+
+4
+00:00:31,470 --> 00:00:38,710
+وتوزيع رأس المال يعني مثلا انا عندي استثمارات
+
+5
+00:00:38,710 --> 00:00:48,450
+استثمارات فيها مخاطر عالية وفي مخاطر مخفضة في
+
+6
+00:00:48,450 --> 00:00:55,590
+عندي risk aversionأه في عند risk aversion ال risk
+
+7
+00:00:55,590 --> 00:01:00,350
+aversion هي تجنب المخاطر و عند capital allocation
+
+8
+00:01:00,350 --> 00:01:05,790
+ال capital allocation توزيع الموارد لو
+
+9
+00:01:05,790 --> 00:01:10,470
+عندنا احنا مجموعة استثمارات هذه الاستثمارات مافي
+
+10
+00:01:10,470 --> 00:01:13,990
+استثمار مشابه للاخر يعني في عندنا استثمارات عالية
+
+11
+00:01:13,990 --> 00:01:19,580
+المخاطر و استثمارات منخفضة المخاطرفي بعض ال
+
+12
+00:01:19,580 --> 00:01:23,100
+investors بعض المستثمرين بيروحوا على استثمارات
+
+13
+00:01:23,100 --> 00:01:27,540
+خاطرة جدا وبعض ال investors بيروحوا على استثمارات
+
+14
+00:01:27,540 --> 00:01:33,740
+متوسطة الخطورة ومستثمرين آخرين بيروحوا على متدنية
+
+15
+00:01:33,740 --> 00:01:38,560
+الخطورة طيب اذا كل every investors or every
+
+16
+00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:46,040
+investor has its own risk criteria كل مستثمر اللي
+
+17
+00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:49,910
+هو risk criteria خاصة فيهيعني مثلا لو جينا قولنا
+
+18
+00:01:49,910 --> 00:01:55,050
+شاب صغير يعني في ال twenties بخلف عن راجل old man
+
+19
+00:01:55,050 --> 00:02:00,530
+in his seventies طبعا يعني راجل أو شاب عمره عشرين
+
+20
+00:02:00,530 --> 00:02:04,990
+سنة بخلف عن اختياره عمره سبعين سنة الاختيار اللي
+
+21
+00:02:04,990 --> 00:02:07,950
+عمره سبعين سنة بحتاج ل investments يكون ال risk
+
+22
+00:02:07,950 --> 00:02:12,350
+تماما خفض و الشاب الصغير العشرين مش مشكلة عنده ال
+
+23
+00:02:12,350 --> 00:02:18,560
+risk ممكن يكون عاليلو أجينا احنا أخدنا مثلا بين
+
+24
+00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:26,300
+مثلا أرمالة وبين بنت فهنجد أن الأرمالة الاستثمار
+
+25
+00:02:26,300 --> 00:02:29,440
+تبعها بتكون very conservative لأن عندها ممكن تكون
+
+26
+00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:32,820
+عندها أولاد عندها .. بتتربيهم فإن انتوا بكرا
+
+27
+00:02:32,820 --> 00:02:38,100
+متصيروا managers أو مدرى او يعني ناس تفهم في
+
+28
+00:02:38,100 --> 00:02:44,430
+الاستثمارفال .. ال .. ال investor criteria خصائص
+
+29
+00:02:44,430 --> 00:02:48,110
+الشخص نفسها هي اللي بتحكم the level of risk اللي
+
+30
+00:02:48,110 --> 00:02:52,980
+بتحكم مستوى المخاطرفزي ما حكينا ال old man is not
+
+31
+00:02:52,980 --> 00:02:57,380
+as him as the young one يعني الزلمة الكبير مش زي
+
+32
+00:02:57,380 --> 00:03:02,920
+الشاب الصغير ال water lady is not as him as the
+
+33
+00:03:02,920 --> 00:03:08,660
+unmarried lady يعني البنت الصغيرة مش زي المدامة أو
+
+34
+00:03:08,660 --> 00:03:11,580
+الأرمالة مثلا هذه بدتكون investment criteria very
+
+35
+00:03:11,580 --> 00:03:17,160
+conservative this is ممكن very high riskلو أجينا
+
+36
+00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:22,100
+احنا مثلا أخدنا retired people الناس المتقاعدين
+
+37
+00:03:22,100 --> 00:03:25,920
+بيكون عندهم ال risk مخافض أكتر من ال working
+
+38
+00:03:25,920 --> 00:03:29,900
+people الناس اللي بيشتغلوا فبدنا نفكر في ال .. في
+
+39
+00:03:29,900 --> 00:03:34,340
+ال .. so we classified people based in the .. in
+
+40
+00:03:34,340 --> 00:03:38,100
+their criteria so we have risk lovers we have risk
+
+41
+00:03:38,100 --> 00:03:42,460
+neutrals and we have risk avoiders يعني في عندنا
+
+42
+00:03:42,460 --> 00:03:47,450
+ناس بتجنبوا المخاطرفى ناس neutral ايش neutral؟
+
+43
+00:03:47,450 --> 00:03:52,310
+they don't care about risk اه they take the risk
+
+44
+00:03:52,310 --> 00:03:56,810
+as enjoyment بياخدوا ال risk as ايش؟ enjoyment ايش
+
+45
+00:03:56,810 --> 00:04:01,610
+enjoyment؟ يعني استمتاع مغامرة زى اللى بتشوفوه هم
+
+46
+00:04:01,610 --> 00:04:07,010
+دول they are .. they are gambling on horses يعني
+
+47
+00:04:07,010 --> 00:04:11,650
+اللى بيرهنوا على الحصن هذا .. هذا is for enjoyment
+
+48
+00:04:12,940 --> 00:04:17,000
+يعني كتير كل يوم تشوفوهم حتى إذا في .. في .. في
+
+49
+00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,600
+غزة مثلا نجد الظاهر عادي موجودة إن ممكن ناس يعملوا
+
+50
+00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,820
+gambling على الحصن مين which is the winner؟ مين هو
+
+51
+00:04:23,820 --> 00:04:29,100
+ال winner؟ ومين which is the second winner؟ طبعا؟
+
+52
+00:04:29,100 --> 00:04:33,700
+so this is the thing so .. so this is .. this
+
+53
+00:04:33,700 --> 00:04:36,980
+chapter six is mainly focus on the risk aversion
+
+54
+00:04:36,980 --> 00:04:38,620
+and risk neutral
+
+55
+00:05:01,110 --> 00:05:04,690
+المستثمرين في طبيعة بعض المستثمرين أن هما في avoid
+
+56
+00:05:04,690 --> 00:05:06,010
+risk يتجنبوا المخاطر
+
+57
+00:05:09,230 --> 00:05:13,330
+لدرجة ان هذه المخاطر مرتبطة في ال rewards يعني في
+
+58
+00:05:13,330 --> 00:05:19,690
+المكافأة يعني هم مش هيخاطروا إلا إذا اتكافؤوا هيك
+
+59
+00:05:19,690 --> 00:05:23,930
+المفهومة المكافأة
+
+60
+00:05:23,930 --> 00:05:28,010
+يعني المخاطر مرتبطة بالمكافأة هذا الشكل الطبيعي
+
+61
+00:05:28,010 --> 00:05:31,170
+هذا الشكل الطبيعي ان ال reward is linked with the
+
+62
+00:05:31,170 --> 00:05:36,510
+risk so the higher level of risk is higher level
+
+63
+00:05:36,510 --> 00:05:43,780
+of rewardالproblem is المشكلة وين انه if you
+
+64
+00:05:43,780 --> 00:05:47,820
+compare with هذه يعني دايما اللي بنحكي فيها if we
+
+65
+00:05:47,820 --> 00:05:52,820
+have A and B and I ask you this question in the
+
+66
+00:05:52,820 --> 00:05:55,480
+last meeting or the last week which you prefer A
+
+67
+00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,820
+or B سألنا سؤالها بأنه أفضل A ولا B
+
+68
+00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:09,700
+A تحمل أسرع أسرع فإذا كان هذا أسرع و هذا مكتوب فهو
+
+69
+00:06:09,700 --> 00:06:18,920
+A تحمل أسرع أسرع من B فماذا هي الإجابة؟ أيه أفضل؟
+
+70
+00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:28,460
+A أو B؟ أو أيه أفضل؟ A أو B؟ B لأن B أفضل من I
+
+71
+00:06:28,460 --> 00:06:33,700
+حسنًا و بعض الناسممكن تسأل، حسناً، A تحافظ على
+
+72
+00:06:33,700 --> 00:06:37,880
+أعلى إعادة أو أعلى خطر؟ لذا، لماذا يجب أن أحافظ
+
+73
+00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:45,560
+على أكتر خطر؟ حسناً،
+
+74
+00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:50,880
+فالمشكلة هي .. هي
+
+75
+00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:57,200
+.. ما هي استخدام E و ما هي استخدام P؟ استخدام
+
+76
+00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:03,920
+المنفعةإيش أنا مستفيد من A؟ وإيش أنا مستفيد من B؟
+
+77
+00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:06,120
+this is the .. this is the things you remember
+
+78
+00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,540
+they .. when I talk about Sharpe Ratio مذاكرين لما
+
+79
+00:07:09,540 --> 00:07:13,060
+حكيت عن Sharpe Ratio؟ أه .. الأسبوع الفاتر
+
+80
+00:07:13,060 --> 00:07:19,300
+ماذاكرين؟ إيش Sharpe Ratio بتحكي؟ Sharpe Ratio
+
+81
+00:07:19,300 --> 00:07:26,860
+بتحكي link the expected return with the risk so if
+
+82
+00:07:26,860 --> 00:07:31,470
+I have one unit in riskكمية تخلق أو تخلق عدد عدد
+
+83
+00:07:31,470 --> 00:07:32,090
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+84
+00:07:32,090 --> 00:07:35,650
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+85
+00:07:35,650 --> 00:07:36,090
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+86
+00:07:36,090 --> 00:07:37,470
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+87
+00:07:37,470 --> 00:07:39,030
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+88
+00:07:39,030 --> 00:07:47,550
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+89
+00:07:47,550 --> 00:07:57,250
+عد
+
+90
+00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:03,640
+with a return utility of P is a function of risk
+
+91
+00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:09,080
+and return يعني هي المنفعة يعني خلينا نعطيكوا مثال
+
+92
+00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:15,100
+بسيط على المنفعة لو جيبنا احنا شخصين تنان و جيبنا
+
+93
+00:08:15,100 --> 00:08:19,480
+كاسة مي قولنا له تفضل هذه تفضل هذه مين اكتر واحد
+
+94
+00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:25,220
+بيستفيد من كاسة مي it depends العطشان بالاخير انه
+
+95
+00:08:25,220 --> 00:08:28,770
+this is holding the same amount ofof water and
+
+96
+00:08:28,770 --> 00:08:31,190
+this is the same amount of water the same thing
+
+97
+00:08:31,190 --> 00:08:37,890
+but the difference is the utility المنفع how the
+
+98
+00:08:37,890 --> 00:08:41,170
+water utilize you when you are getting thirsty
+
+99
+00:08:41,170 --> 00:08:45,610
+it's important to take the water if you are not so
+
+100
+00:08:45,610 --> 00:08:48,150
+it is not important to you يعني إذا كنا احنا
+
+101
+00:08:48,150 --> 00:08:53,250
+عطشانين الماء مهمة بالنسبة لنا بس إذا ماكناش it
+
+102
+00:08:53,250 --> 00:08:57,910
+doesn't matter then ال riskلو اجينا احنا حكينا في
+
+103
+00:08:57,910 --> 00:09:03,610
+عندنا ف .. في عندنا سهم A risk وعالي risk ومخفض
+
+104
+00:09:03,610 --> 00:09:11,650
+lower risk okay و سهم B is higher risk okay صعب لو
+
+105
+00:09:11,650 --> 00:09:14,990
+اجينا احنا حكينا مثال لو احنا ال .. الناس ال
+
+106
+00:09:14,990 --> 00:09:21,710
+investors in B ناس very rich people يعني ناس rich
+
+107
+00:09:23,940 --> 00:09:29,040
+إذا ماعندهم مش مشكلة في B، لأ they are rich، إذا
+
+108
+00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:33,760
+they .. the utility of B is good for them، يعني
+
+109
+00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:37,660
+منفعة B كويسة لهم، however the utility of A is not
+
+110
+00:09:37,660 --> 00:09:43,930
+good for them، المنفعة بتاعة A مش مهمة لهملكن if
+
+111
+00:09:43,930 --> 00:09:47,370
+the opposite لو احنا أخدنا عادي that's normal
+
+112
+00:09:47,370 --> 00:09:50,610
+people يعني الناس عاديين ممكن they prefer a rather
+
+113
+00:09:50,610 --> 00:09:54,490
+than b because the utility of a is greater than b
+
+114
+00:09:54,490 --> 00:09:59,410
+so the idea here is the utility depends on the
+
+115
+00:09:59,410 --> 00:10:04,530
+criteria of people ال utility بتعتمد على إيش؟ على
+
+116
+00:10:04,530 --> 00:10:08,490
+ال criteria تبع الناس يعني على خصائص الناس لما انا
+
+117
+00:10:08,490 --> 00:10:13,860
+أعطيتكم مثلا قلنا جيبنا كسة مي لواحد ولا لآخرواحد
+
+118
+00:10:13,860 --> 00:10:17,620
+استفد منها وواحد مااستفدش منها it means we are the
+
+119
+00:10:17,620 --> 00:10:20,240
+same people يعني وخلّيني أقول the same weight نفس
+
+120
+00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,420
+الوزن okay ونفس الجنس ونفس الأشياء قولنا لها أفضل
+
+121
+00:10:23,420 --> 00:10:26,340
+هاي كاسة ماي وانت كاسة ماي you see and evaluate
+
+122
+00:10:26,340 --> 00:10:33,120
+the utility وخلّينا نقرر بال utility so
+
+123
+00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,860
+it depends on the criteria so what is the criteria
+
+124
+00:10:35,860 --> 00:10:39,120
+of .. of .. of the people from the investment
+
+125
+00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:43,210
+point of view من وجهة نظر المستثمين is ais
+
+126
+00:10:43,210 --> 00:10:49,110
+measured by A, A is risk preferences tool يعني
+
+127
+00:10:49,110 --> 00:10:52,570
+احنا بنجيس يعني لما يجينا يجيبنا كأس المي كيف
+
+128
+00:10:52,570 --> 00:10:54,750
+عرفنا ال utility تبعته، جداش هو عطشان، جداش
+
+129
+00:10:54,750 --> 00:10:58,530
+هستفيد، صح؟ فكل ما زاد عطشه، كل ما بده استفادته
+
+130
+00:10:58,530 --> 00:11:03,550
+أكتر من المي ال A هي measure لل utility لل risk
+
+131
+00:11:03,550 --> 00:11:09,400
+preferencesmeasure لل risk preferences يعني جداش
+
+132
+00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:13,740
+هو بيفضل و جداش هو ببتعد عن المخازن هذه a يتم
+
+133
+00:11:13,740 --> 00:11:17,380
+تقديرها يعني لو أنا جيت اعملت interview مع كوكل
+
+134
+00:11:17,380 --> 00:11:21,540
+كوكل one by one عشان اقرر which a هلاجي انه في
+
+135
+00:11:21,540 --> 00:11:26,280
+many a'sin this class كل واحدة إلها a مختلفة عن
+
+136
+00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:31,880
+الأخرى يعني واحدة مثلا يعني أمورها تمام بتدرس منيح
+
+137
+00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:40,100
+يعني very sticky with her study so a بتكون يعني دي
+
+138
+00:11:40,100 --> 00:11:44,040
+متوسطة واحدة من البنات مش موضوع كتير الدراسة يعني
+
+139
+00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:48,760
+this studying is for enjoyment so a will deal with
+
+140
+00:11:49,830 --> 00:11:52,690
+يعني في ناس جايين دراسة تبعتهم for on جامعة يعني
+
+141
+00:11:52,690 --> 00:11:55,010
+just to go to the university and see the people
+
+142
+00:11:55,010 --> 00:11:58,990
+and you can chitchat other people no ال study is
+
+143
+00:11:58,990 --> 00:12:01,610
+for the future for them is the future for them
+
+144
+00:12:01,610 --> 00:12:04,610
+الناس لأ ال study is future for them so they
+
+145
+00:12:04,610 --> 00:12:08,970
+cannot gamble on this مافيش عندهم gambling okay
+
+146
+00:12:08,970 --> 00:12:12,850
+فبتكون ال a تبعتهم عالية كتير so it depends ايش
+
+147
+00:12:12,850 --> 00:12:15,990
+المستوى بتاع ال a للشخص يعني خلينا أعطيكم مثال
+
+148
+00:12:15,990 --> 00:12:21,470
+بدينا في حكينا أنه في عندنا old manوحكينا في young
+
+149
+00:12:21,470 --> 00:12:29,510
+man okay very young ال old man ال risk preference
+
+150
+00:12:29,510 --> 00:12:34,750
+طبعته هتكون عالي و لا مخفضة طب خليني أسألك ال risk
+
+151
+00:12:34,750 --> 00:12:37,650
+avoided avoiding avoiding risk عالي و لا مخفضة
+
+152
+00:12:37,650 --> 00:12:45,210
+avoiding risk عالي okay اذا ال a هتكون high ال
+
+153
+00:12:45,210 --> 00:12:48,950
+young man هتكون ال risk avoider طبعته عالي و لا
+
+154
+00:12:48,950 --> 00:12:51,760
+مخفضةمخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+155
+00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:52,380
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+156
+00:12:52,380 --> 00:12:58,400
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+157
+00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:07,620
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+158
+00:13:07,620 --> 00:13:11,240
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+159
+00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:15,140
+مخافة
+
+160
+00:13:15,140 --> 00:13:16,540
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+161
+00:13:16,540 --> 00:13:16,620
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+162
+00:13:20,260 --> 00:13:24,960
+و نحكي مثلا الصبح أنا كنت ب .. يعني بتابع تقرير
+
+163
+00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:30,420
+بيجيبوا على ال BBC بيجيبوا على Bloomberg stars
+
+164
+00:13:30,420 --> 00:13:36,680
+from Asia stars from Asia يعني نجوم من أسيا هدول
+
+165
+00:13:36,680 --> 00:13:39,000
+بيجيبوا the big people in Asia طبعا مش ال
+
+166
+00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:42,000
+politicians people مش الناس بيحكوا في السياسة لأ
+
+167
+00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:47,520
+ناس they do changes in their life or in the people
+
+168
+00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:53,410
+lifeفكانوا جايبين عن سيدة صينية she's a business
+
+169
+00:13:53,410 --> 00:14:00,210
+lady هذه بتكون risk neutral عالية كتير عندها اه
+
+170
+00:14:00,210 --> 00:14:03,290
+فدخلت
+
+171
+00:14:03,290 --> 00:14:06,550
+في مشروع مشروع اللي هو ال fabric industries اللي
+
+172
+00:14:06,550 --> 00:14:11,250
+هي غيرت كتير في شكل الاقتصاد الصيني فكان هي احتمال
+
+173
+00:14:11,250 --> 00:14:16,270
+الفشل عالي كتير فتعاون ال .. تعاون Bloomberg بيقول
+
+174
+00:14:16,270 --> 00:14:20,240
+يعني why you take this riskSo some people in
+
+175
+00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:25,020
+nature they love risk وفينا أصلا they don't want
+
+176
+00:14:25,020 --> 00:14:28,820
+to take the risk فهذه ال risk تبعها تقترب إلى ال
+
+177
+00:14:28,820 --> 00:14:33,680
+zero اللي ال a تبعتها تقترب إلى ال zero يعني كل ما
+
+178
+00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:38,000
+احنا ماشينا على الشمال يعني وصلنا لل a zero يعني
+
+179
+00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:44,300
+اذا أخدنا هذا هيك scale وكان هنا zero كل ما انا
+
+180
+00:14:44,300 --> 00:14:50,440
+ببعد عن السفر بيصير عنده riskavoid بزيت avoiding
+
+181
+00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:55,660
+risk بزيت كل أنا باجي بقترب لل zero بكون ال risk
+
+182
+00:14:55,660 --> 00:15:02,680
+lover بزيت okay when you are zero here it means
+
+183
+00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:08,180
+you are risk neutral risk neutral it means you you
+
+184
+00:15:08,180 --> 00:15:12,780
+are enjoying in risk انت يعني risk is enjoyment is
+
+185
+00:15:12,780 --> 00:15:17,950
+like gambling okayso this is the idea is this new
+
+186
+00:15:17,950 --> 00:15:24,670
+for you هل هذا كلام جديد لانتم على ال risk طبعا
+
+187
+00:15:24,670 --> 00:15:28,510
+بال .. بال investments المتقدم طبعا مش موضوعنا
+
+188
+00:15:28,510 --> 00:15:30,830
+احنا how to measure a موجود في الكتاب how to
+
+189
+00:15:30,830 --> 00:15:36,410
+measure a يعني ممكن انا عملنا test و examples يعني
+
+190
+00:15:36,410 --> 00:15:41,490
+how we can measure a يعني بعطيكم انا استبيان و
+
+191
+00:15:41,490 --> 00:15:47,110
+بتعبوا الاستبيان بقدر اعرف ال a لكل واحدة فيكمطبعا
+
+192
+00:15:47,110 --> 00:15:51,670
+و لو ال a هتيجي من from alpha from alpha يعني from
+
+193
+00:15:51,670 --> 00:15:56,230
+alpha to zero هتكون من alpha to zero يعني from
+
+194
+00:15:56,230 --> 00:16:00,110
+infinity so as I said the utility model gives the
+
+195
+00:16:00,110 --> 00:16:02,810
+optimal allocation between a risky portfolio and a
+
+196
+00:16:02,810 --> 00:16:06,770
+risky free asset what it means it means once we
+
+197
+00:16:06,770 --> 00:16:13,150
+know the utility so we can easily form the
+
+198
+00:16:13,150 --> 00:16:16,890
+portfoliosممكن احنا سهل نعمل portfolios portfolios
+
+199
+00:16:16,890 --> 00:16:19,750
+يعني محفظة because this portfolio includes risky
+
+200
+00:16:19,750 --> 00:16:23,070
+asset يعني asset بتكون عالية المخاطر and risk-free
+
+201
+00:16:23,070 --> 00:16:29,390
+asset و asset متخفطة المخاطر okay based on the
+
+202
+00:16:29,390 --> 00:16:33,430
+utility or based on the A ال A اللي هو risk
+
+203
+00:16:33,430 --> 00:16:38,390
+preferencing or risk avoiding we should know about
+
+204
+00:16:38,390 --> 00:16:42,710
+what it means speculationالكتير بنسمع بال ..
+
+205
+00:16:42,710 --> 00:16:46,050
+بالنشرات الاقتصادي مثلا إذا فتحنا Bloomberg ولا
+
+206
+00:16:46,050 --> 00:16:51,370
+فتحنا مثلا CNN ولا ال BBC ولا ال Reuters ولا هدول
+
+207
+00:16:51,370 --> 00:16:53,830
+الناس يعني I recommend you to do this at least
+
+208
+00:16:53,830 --> 00:16:56,690
+يعني five ten minutes in the morning you just
+
+209
+00:16:56,690 --> 00:17:01,490
+listen يعني بدل ما احنا نسمع شغلات مش كتير بتلزم
+
+210
+00:17:01,490 --> 00:17:07,730
+اه يعني just focus on this speculation speculation
+
+211
+00:17:09,140 --> 00:17:13,060
+taking considerable risk for a concerted gain ال
+
+212
+00:17:13,060 --> 00:17:19,420
+speculation is a risk مخاطر okay but is calculated
+
+213
+00:17:19,420 --> 00:17:27,960
+risk الفرق فيها أنها is calculated risk okay risk
+
+214
+00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:32,060
+مخاطر يعني مخاطر محسوبة بتعرفوا المخاطر المحسوبة
+
+215
+00:17:32,060 --> 00:17:38,170
+ال speculationيعني انا زي ال lady اللي احنا حكينا
+
+216
+00:17:38,170 --> 00:17:40,830
+معاها .. حكينا الصبح و شوفنا التقرير تبع ال star،
+
+217
+00:17:40,830 --> 00:17:44,590
+روحوا انتوا على Bloomberg و اكتبوا Asia .. stars
+
+218
+00:17:44,590 --> 00:17:47,630
+from Asia، في كتير تقارير كتير حلوة انتوا
+
+219
+00:17:47,630 --> 00:17:50,650
+هتستفيدوا منها، بعرف انا احتمالات خسارتي و
+
+220
+00:17:50,650 --> 00:17:55,880
+احتمالات ربحيthis is speculation فمرات أثناء
+
+221
+00:17:55,880 --> 00:18:00,240
+الحديث you speculate on him يعني هل تقامر عليه ال
+
+222
+00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,300
+.. ف is is calculated يعني أنا احتمال أربح و
+
+223
+00:18:03,300 --> 00:18:08,420
+احتمال أخسر بقى is calculated okay parties have
+
+224
+00:18:08,420 --> 00:18:13,720
+heterogeneous expectations ال parties الأشخاص
+
+225
+00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:21,400
+عندهم ال ال heterogeneous expectations الأشخاص
+
+226
+00:18:23,300 --> 00:18:27,800
+عندهم وجهات نظر مختلفة كل واحد عنده وجهات نظر
+
+227
+00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:31,320
+مختلفة وبالتالي مافيش .. يعني إذا إحنا إجينا
+
+228
+00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:38,500
+حاكينا عندي سهم سعره تلاتين سهم سعره تلاتين اليوم
+
+229
+00:18:38,500 --> 00:18:43,320
+طب بكرا كده إيش هيك يصير ففي ناس بيقولوا is up is
+
+230
+00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,900
+down okay
+
+231
+00:18:46,900 --> 00:18:48,840
+فهذا في عندنا heterogeneous belief
+
+232
+00:18:51,690 --> 00:18:56,370
+ال gamble إذا أخدنا ال speculation أخدنا شغل اسمها
+
+233
+00:18:56,370 --> 00:18:59,970
+speculation ال speculation is calculated risk يعني
+
+234
+00:18:59,970 --> 00:19:02,770
+زي ما أنتوا شايفينها taken considerable risk يعني
+
+235
+00:19:02,770 --> 00:19:09,750
+risk محسوب مقابل ما أنا أخد المخاطر هذه بدي أخد
+
+236
+00:19:09,750 --> 00:19:15,170
+العائد gamble طب إيش الفرق بين ال gamble و ال
+
+237
+00:19:15,170 --> 00:19:19,170
+speculation gamble مقامرة مقامرة
+
+238
+00:19:24,420 --> 00:19:30,060
+لأ هو مش مثال ات مش عارفها هي
+
+239
+00:19:30,060 --> 00:19:36,180
+is gambling is a part of enjoyment okay is a part
+
+240
+00:19:36,180 --> 00:19:39,860
+of enjoyment يعني جزء من ال enjoyment الاش ال
+
+241
+00:19:39,860 --> 00:19:46,540
+enjoyment خليني
+
+242
+00:19:46,540 --> 00:19:51,980
+اوضحلكوا إياها خليني أوضحلكوا إياها هلأ نيجي لوحد
+
+243
+00:19:54,210 --> 00:19:58,070
+بنأدم عادي بروحش ع speculation بروح ع شغل اسمه
+
+244
+00:19:58,070 --> 00:20:04,390
+investment استثمار استثمار rational منطقي مابغامرش
+
+245
+00:20:04,390 --> 00:20:09,870
+في الفلوس تبعته هلما تبدأ ثروته تكبر ممكن يبدأ
+
+246
+00:20:09,870 --> 00:20:13,790
+طبعا و في عنده ال criteria انه يعمل مخاطر فهيعمل
+
+247
+00:20:13,790 --> 00:20:18,990
+شغل اسمه speculation هيبدأ يتخذ مخاطر معينة محدودة
+
+248
+00:20:18,990 --> 00:20:25,220
+طيب هل الزلمة هذا الثروة تبعته كبرت كتير؟فهيدخل ع
+
+249
+00:20:25,220 --> 00:20:30,820
+شغل اسمه gambling gambling معناه كلام حتى لو خسر
+
+250
+00:20:30,820 --> 00:20:34,460
+مش هيتأثر على الثروة تبعته يعني مثلا
+
+251
+00:20:37,490 --> 00:20:40,850
+أه مصبرة هلأ ال gambling يعني أعطيكوا مثال لو
+
+252
+00:20:40,850 --> 00:20:44,750
+أجينا احنا شوفنا ال gambling إيش بيسووا يعني اليوم
+
+253
+00:20:44,750 --> 00:20:48,970
+مثلا بارح أو قبل كانت مبارحة بين مثلا برشلونة
+
+254
+00:20:48,970 --> 00:20:52,910
+وريال مدريد إيش في ال gambling ال gambling بيحكوا
+
+255
+00:20:52,910 --> 00:20:56,470
+مش بس في النتائج بيقولوا إنه بأي دقيقة هيدخل الجون
+
+256
+00:20:56,470 --> 00:21:01,650
+هذا gambling و مين هيدخل الجون و من أي متر
+
+257
+00:21:01,650 --> 00:21:05,970
+وبالتالي this is gambling مخاطر is for enjoyment
+
+258
+00:21:08,030 --> 00:21:12,310
+للإيش لل enjoyment لتسلية وهذا فاكرهاش انه so is
+
+259
+00:21:12,310 --> 00:21:19,530
+uncertain outcome outcome for enjoyment للإيش شغل
+
+260
+00:21:19,530 --> 00:21:23,330
+مش مع .. يعني uncertain غير مؤكدة for enjoyment بس
+
+261
+00:21:23,330 --> 00:21:26,590
+هذا مين بيمارسها؟ مانفعش مارسها اللي زي و اللي زي
+
+262
+00:21:26,590 --> 00:21:30,850
+.. مش العالي كمان يعني .. يعني يا بنات في غزة كلها
+
+263
+00:21:30,850 --> 00:21:34,190
+جداش احنا في غزة كلها مافيش حد ممكن يعمل كلام هذا
+
+264
+00:21:34,190 --> 00:21:39,220
+إلا إذا .. إذا بيعملها بكون ..بيكون فيه مشكلة عنده
+
+265
+00:21:39,220 --> 00:21:43,600
+وانتوا عارفين what it means في ال gambling يعني
+
+266
+00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,680
+اذا بيعمل gambling مع الكراه هتكون مشكلة كبيرة
+
+267
+00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:51,140
+عنده اه
+
+268
+00:21:51,140 --> 00:21:54,860
+بس هان يعني كدهش يعني ثروة اكبر و اكبر زعيم تفزع
+
+269
+00:21:54,860 --> 00:21:55,000
+يعني
+
+270
+00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,940
+يعني بتعتمد على ال wealth فهدول ال gambler يعني زي
+
+271
+00:22:01,940 --> 00:22:06,420
+مثلا أحكيكي مثلا ممكن يكون شخصيات مثلا big players
+
+272
+00:22:06,420 --> 00:22:10,660
+رونالدو مثلا ولا ممكن يكون زي Bill Gates هدول ممكن
+
+273
+00:22:10,660 --> 00:22:13,000
+يعملوا gambling لإنه حتى لو خسر مش هتكون عنده
+
+274
+00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:19,260
+مشكلة بس يعني لو خسرها لو كان عنده ثروة وقداش نص
+
+275
+00:22:19,260 --> 00:22:22,560
+مليار دولار ممكن تصل؟ ماظننيش وبالتالي ممكن يتأثر
+
+276
+00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,500
+على الثروة تبعتهمOkay parties assign the same
+
+277
+00:22:26,500 --> 00:22:29,420
+probabilities to possible outcomes في ال gambling
+
+278
+00:22:29,420 --> 00:22:34,300
+parties assign the same probabilities to the
+
+279
+00:22:34,300 --> 00:22:37,460
+possible outcomes يعني الأشخاص اللي بيعملوا
+
+280
+00:22:37,460 --> 00:22:42,960
+gambling يعني نيجي عندنا مثلا خمسين حصان بدهم
+
+281
+00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:48,700
+يتسابقوا و أنا بعمل gamble على حصان واحد و واحد
+
+282
+00:22:48,700 --> 00:22:51,800
+بعمل على حصان التالي و التالي نسبة اللي احنا نربح
+
+283
+00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:57,500
+واحد من الخمسينتمام؟ وبالتالي الأشخاص الأخرين
+
+284
+00:22:57,500 --> 00:23:01,720
+عندهم نفس الاحتمال للربح فإذا وصلنا إنه احنا كلنا
+
+285
+00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,840
+ما أكلناها عندنا نفس الاحتمالات فبكون gambling
+
+286
+00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:08,160
+okay
+
+287
+00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,780
+investors are willing to consider ال investors
+
+288
+00:23:11,780 --> 00:23:18,820
+بعكس ال speculator وعكس ال gambling لأنه ال
+
+289
+00:23:18,820 --> 00:23:22,770
+investors are rationalطب ليش احنا بحكيلكوا الكلام
+
+290
+00:23:22,770 --> 00:23:28,050
+هذا لأنه عشان تعرفوا مخاطر ال investments مانكونش
+
+291
+00:23:28,050 --> 00:23:34,270
+احنا مانكونش speculator اذا كان speculator ممكن
+
+292
+00:23:34,270 --> 00:23:41,750
+يكون بحسوبة و gambling okay؟
+
+293
+00:23:42,390 --> 00:23:45,450
+يعني مثلا إجاني شخص هاطيكم مثال على ال gambling و
+
+294
+00:23:45,450 --> 00:23:48,270
+هذا ممكن تكون أنا حكيت المفروض ما تكونش لكن إذا
+
+295
+00:23:48,270 --> 00:23:50,830
+كانت موجودة عندنا في غزة ماعقوب .. ماعقوب في مشكلة
+
+296
+00:23:50,830 --> 00:23:54,010
+عند الشخص اللي بيعملها يعني إجاني واحد من الشارع و
+
+297
+00:23:54,010 --> 00:23:58,750
+قال لي والله اسمع و في استثمار أعطيني بس ألف دولار
+
+298
+00:23:58,750 --> 00:24:02,490
+بجيبلك خمس ألف دولار و أنا مغمض هذا إيش gambling
+
+299
+00:24:02,490 --> 00:24:08,120
+يعني إيش gambling يعني زي لعب لجمارلو كان ايش مكان
+
+300
+00:24:08,120 --> 00:24:12,860
+هذا الشخص هذا .. هذا ايش اسمه gambling معناه لعب
+
+301
+00:24:12,860 --> 00:24:15,080
+بالجمار كيف اللي بيلعبوا بال .. بالجمار على ال
+
+302
+00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:19,620
+روليتز ايها بالظبط مش هتفرق كتيرلأنه مافيش حسب ال
+
+303
+00:24:19,620 --> 00:24:24,100
+.. الاستثمارات في العالم يعني أكتر استثمار .. أكتر
+
+304
+00:24:24,100 --> 00:24:27,560
+استثمار ممكن ي .. بالاستثمارات العالم إذا استثمرنا
+
+305
+00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:32,940
+بمحفظة دولية هتعطينا 6% نضربها في 2 و 12% ماشي بس
+
+306
+00:24:32,940 --> 00:24:36,440
+أنا قاعد بيقولي الألف دولار بتجيب خمس تلات يعني
+
+307
+00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:40,520
+ماعندي 500% هذا و إحنا مغنطين this is gambling فهو
+
+308
+00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:45,860
+حرام هيعطينا الألف دولارهذا الألف دولار بالنسبة له
+
+309
+00:24:45,860 --> 00:24:48,960
+للشخص اللي بياخدها is enjoyment قاعد بلعب في فلوس
+
+310
+00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,400
+الناس for enjoyment فهو قاعد بيجرب في شغل بيجرب في
+
+311
+00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:57,940
+آخر و اللي تظبط معاه أمورها تمشي so investors will
+
+312
+00:24:57,940 --> 00:25:01,480
+need to consider risk-free assets المستثمرين بدهم
+
+313
+00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:06,780
+دائما بالاستثمار سبعهم بيقارنوا
+
+314
+00:25:06,780 --> 00:25:11,300
+الاستثمار سبعتهم بال free risk assetsيعني أي
+
+315
+00:25:11,300 --> 00:25:13,700
+استثمار أنا بعمله يعني زي ما أنا أعطيكم مثال بقول
+
+316
+00:25:13,700 --> 00:25:19,360
+ال asset الدولي الاستثمارات في العالم اليوم بتعطي
+
+317
+00:25:19,360 --> 00:25:25,020
+1.75% بتعطي عائد هذا الاستثمارات العادية يعني
+
+318
+00:25:25,020 --> 00:25:29,460
+خلاني أحكي اللي مخاطرها أقل شيء وبالتالي أنا بقارن
+
+319
+00:25:29,460 --> 00:25:35,300
+كل الاستثمارات بال risk-free لما ييجي واحد يقول في
+
+320
+00:25:35,300 --> 00:25:39,380
+استثمار بيعطي 500% ماعندي كلام إيهاشمع كلام
+
+321
+00:25:39,380 --> 00:25:43,920
+gambling جداش لأنه بعيد عن 1.75 Speculative
+
+322
+00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:47,960
+positions with positive risk premiums نيجي نحكي ..
+
+323
+00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:56,180
+نشوف كيف ال .. ال risk-free assets زي
+
+324
+00:25:56,180 --> 00:25:59,640
+ما أنتوا بتعرفوا إنه high .. high risk-free assets
+
+325
+00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:04,400
+النقطة هذه risk-free مافيش فيها مخاطر فكل ما أنا
+
+326
+00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:12,810
+أزيد في ال .. المنطقة هذهفيها speculation المنطقة
+
+327
+00:26:12,810 --> 00:26:18,310
+اللي فوق هيك فيها gambling المنطقة
+
+328
+00:26:18,310 --> 00:26:25,030
+هذه فيها conservative investments محافظة
+
+329
+00:26:25,030 --> 00:26:32,210
+فكل ما زاد المخاطر كل ما زادت العائد وبالتالي أنا
+
+330
+00:26:32,210 --> 00:26:39,290
+بقارن نفسي مع ال risk freeكل ما المخاطر بتزيد بطلب
+
+331
+00:26:39,290 --> 00:26:47,190
+premium بطلب reward عاقد بطلب مكافأة لسبب المخاطر
+
+332
+00:26:47,190 --> 00:26:51,090
+الزيادة اللي انا اتحملتها portfolio attractiveness
+
+333
+00:26:51,090 --> 00:26:53,350
+increase with expected return and decrease with
+
+334
+00:26:53,350 --> 00:27:03,410
+riskالمحافظ اللى بتشد انتباهنا و بتكون محافظ جذابة
+
+335
+00:27:03,410 --> 00:27:07,890
+لنا هى المحافظ اللى بتزيد ال expected return
+
+336
+00:27:07,890 --> 00:27:19,770
+العائد و بتقلل المخاطر طيب انتبهوا معناها هى هل
+
+337
+00:27:19,770 --> 00:27:24,470
+جهت انتباهها ؟ خلينا نشوف انتبهوا معناها النقطة هى
+
+338
+00:27:25,820 --> 00:27:36,080
+حكينا إنه هاي A وB وعنا C وعنا مثلا D وF، كلهم على
+
+339
+00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:41,020
+خط السوق، إذا بستثمر فيهم individually، إذا بستثمر
+
+340
+00:27:41,020 --> 00:27:45,980
+فيهم individually، يعني كل واحدة لحال، بنحصل على
+
+341
+00:27:45,980 --> 00:27:50,540
+العوائد على خط السوقلكن أنا هدفي أن أحصل على محفظة
+
+342
+00:27:50,540 --> 00:27:56,000
+استثمارية تقلل المخاطر وتزيد العقد كيف؟ لو أنا
+
+343
+00:27:56,000 --> 00:28:01,740
+أخدت مثلا .. أخدت اللي بضحوط عليهم سيركر A و F و D
+
+344
+00:28:01,740 --> 00:28:10,220
+بضحوطهم مع بعض في محفظة إيش هيصير عندى؟ هيصير عندى
+
+345
+00:28:10,220 --> 00:28:17,570
+ممكن تكون المحفظة موجودة في هذا المكانبدي أخد A و
+
+346
+00:28:17,570 --> 00:28:21,390
+F و D بدي أحطهم في محفظ الاستثمارية يعني معايا انا
+
+347
+00:28:21,390 --> 00:28:25,350
+الف دولار ال الف دولار ممكن انا استثمرها في A
+
+348
+00:28:25,350 --> 00:28:30,970
+لواحدة او ممكن استثمرها في F لواحدة او ممكن
+
+349
+00:28:30,970 --> 00:28:39,190
+استثمرها في A و F و D نوزعهم على التلاتة ايش
+
+350
+00:28:39,190 --> 00:28:46,110
+راح يصير؟ حيصير عندي ممكن يكون العائدOkay العائد
+
+351
+00:28:46,110 --> 00:28:51,950
+يكون في المنطقة هذه تشوفوا كده او هنحكي العائد
+
+352
+00:28:51,950 --> 00:28:59,370
+موجود في هذه المكانة okay في
+
+353
+00:28:59,370 --> 00:29:04,930
+النقطة هذه هذه ايش بتكون عبارة عن تجميع A و F و D
+
+354
+00:29:04,930 --> 00:29:11,650
+طب السؤال ليش؟ واحد فيكو هيحكي طب okay هي عبارة عن
+
+355
+00:29:11,650 --> 00:29:18,020
+A و F و Dعبارة عن مجموع الاسهم التلاتة بقولكم صح
+
+356
+00:29:18,020 --> 00:29:22,240
+هذا من وجهة نظر ال logic تبعتكم but from the
+
+357
+00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:27,160
+mathematical point of view من وجهة نظر محاسبية A
+
+358
+00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:32,400
+لها علاقة في F و A لها علاقة في D و F لها علاقة في
+
+359
+00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:38,700
+D و A لها علاقة في A وبالتالي لما من ناحية رياضية
+
+360
+00:29:38,700 --> 00:29:46,040
+بيبطل مجموع العوائد هو مجموع أوزانهمهتتغير الشكل
+
+361
+00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,000
+الرياضي يعني المعادلات الرياضية هتسمحلي ان انا
+
+362
+00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:53,100
+ازيد العائد و اقلل المخاطر طبعا هذا شوية بنحكي فيه
+
+363
+00:29:53,100 --> 00:29:57,120
+في المستقبل طيب
+
+364
+00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:03,200
+what happens when return increases with risk طب
+
+365
+00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:08,040
+ايش بيصير لما ال return بيزيد مع ال risk؟ال return
+
+366
+00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,520
+بيزيد مع ال risk مع كلام انا ما استفدتش من
+
+367
+00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:15,000
+المحافظة الاستثمارية المحافظة الاستثمارية انه انا
+
+368
+00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:21,420
+مجمع مجموعة ادوات استثمارية بحيث انه تزيد للعائد و
+
+369
+00:30:21,420 --> 00:30:25,460
+تقلل المخاطر هذا الهدف هذا الشغل اللي بيقصد فيه
+
+370
+00:30:25,460 --> 00:30:32,680
+الاستثمار سمعنا نتطلع احنا على الشكل هذا لو طلعنا
+
+371
+00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,900
+هاي portfolio low risk و medium risk و high risk
+
+372
+00:30:37,530 --> 00:30:45,450
+الريسك بريميه 2% ال expected return 7% الريسك بزيد
+
+373
+00:30:45,450 --> 00:30:52,790
+لكن في ال portfolios زي ما نراه كمشوي انه ممكن
+
+374
+00:30:52,790 --> 00:30:58,650
+تزيد العائد و المحاطر تنخفض اذا احنا عملنا
+
+375
+00:30:58,650 --> 00:31:05,670
+portfolios معينة utility
+
+376
+00:31:05,670 --> 00:31:13,310
+functionالـ utility آخرش نحكي فيه عشان انه to
+
+377
+00:31:13,310 --> 00:31:15,970
+summarize the subject utility function utility
+
+378
+00:31:15,970 --> 00:31:20,710
+اللي هو المنفعة حكينا احنا ركزوا يا بنات معناها
+
+379
+00:31:20,710 --> 00:31:28,130
+okay حكينا ان المنفعة هي بتحدد العلاقة بين ال
+
+380
+00:31:28,130 --> 00:31:31,530
+return و بين ال risk مع بعض بتحطهم وبالتالي لما
+
+381
+00:31:31,530 --> 00:31:35,830
+أنا بحكي you ال utilityبتساوي ال expected return
+
+382
+00:31:35,830 --> 00:31:41,810
+اللي هو هذا الجانب as a function of this بس as a
+
+383
+00:31:41,810 --> 00:31:45,570
+function of this هو الفرق بين مخاطر استثمارين
+
+384
+00:31:45,570 --> 00:31:50,450
+وقلنا الفرق بين شغلتين هي نص الفرق صح لما قلنا ما
+
+385
+00:31:50,450 --> 00:31:55,470
+هو الفرق بين خمسة أو عشرة وبالتالي U is equal to
+
+386
+00:31:55,470 --> 00:32:02,830
+the expected return minus half of sigma A or sigma
+
+387
+00:32:02,830 --> 00:32:10,690
+تربيع Aاعتقدكوا ايش معناه ايه؟ ايش معناه ايه؟ ال
+
+388
+00:32:10,690 --> 00:32:18,830
+criteria تبعت كل واحد و ال sigma هي المخاطر ف ال
+
+389
+00:32:18,830 --> 00:32:22,410
+expected return ال utility هي بتساوي كده انا عندي
+
+390
+00:32:22,410 --> 00:32:28,990
+عائل ناقص المخاطر أو ناقص نص المخاطر expected
+
+391
+00:32:28,990 --> 00:32:33,650
+return او a coefficient of risk aversionrisk
+
+392
+00:32:33,650 --> 00:32:36,790
+aversion جداش نجلب المخاطر كل ما بتزيد الرقم هذا
+
+393
+00:32:36,790 --> 00:32:41,690
+بزيد ال risk aversion sigma squared variance of
+
+394
+00:32:41,690 --> 00:32:45,850
+returns half a scaling factor اللي هو معيار وقولنا
+
+395
+00:32:45,850 --> 00:32:51,930
+احنا شرحنا ليش احنا half هاي
+
+396
+00:32:51,930 --> 00:32:54,830
+المعادلة زي ما احنا كنا بنيها الحين اللي هو ال
+
+397
+00:32:54,830 --> 00:32:58,850
+utility عشان انا اعرف جداش احنا بنستفيد لو طلعناها
+
+398
+00:32:58,850 --> 00:33:02,870
+ال utility تبعت ايه بتساويبتساوي ال expected
+
+399
+00:33:02,870 --> 00:33:08,930
+return مؤقس نص ال sigma تربية مضروبة في ال
+
+400
+00:33:08,930 --> 00:33:12,470
+preference بتاعتنا ال a يعني كنا أول أيش نحكي
+
+401
+00:33:12,470 --> 00:33:16,170
+sigma تربية بس بس اليوم لأ دخلنا ال a لإن ال a كل
+
+402
+00:33:16,170 --> 00:33:21,930
+واحد عنده preference خاصة فيه يعني أعطيكم مثل لو
+
+403
+00:33:21,930 --> 00:33:27,230
+أجينا احنايا بنات لو أجينا احنا حكينا فينا اتنين
+
+404
+00:33:27,230 --> 00:33:31,870
+ال a تبعته عالية كتير واحد ال a تبعته ساوي مثلا
+
+405
+00:33:31,870 --> 00:33:38,930
+خمسة وال a تبعته تقترب إلى صفر يعني واحد ال
+
+406
+00:33:38,930 --> 00:33:43,610
+a تبعت أبو الخمسة أبو الواحد يعني لما بدي يربح
+
+407
+00:33:43,610 --> 00:33:47,770
+خمسة في المية بكونش مبسوط لأن هو بيكون مبسوط يا
+
+408
+00:33:47,770 --> 00:33:50,450
+أما بيربح خمسمية في المية يا بيخسر خمسمية في المية
+
+409
+00:33:51,970 --> 00:33:56,350
+لأنه قريب لل risk neutral فهي لأن هذا ال risk is
+
+410
+00:33:56,350 --> 00:33:58,510
+enjoyment for him فلما يكون عنده ربح خمسة في
+
+411
+00:33:58,510 --> 00:34:00,670
+الخمسة في المية معاكينة this is not for enjoyment
+
+412
+00:34:00,670 --> 00:34:05,890
+لكن ابتدائي ال a خمسة هذا he is close to
+
+413
+00:34:05,890 --> 00:34:09,610
+conservative هذا محافظ زي ما أعطاناكوا الخط كل ما
+
+414
+00:34:09,610 --> 00:34:14,810
+بقترب للصفر بصير مخاطر بحبها وكل ما أبتعد بكون أنا
+
+415
+00:34:14,810 --> 00:34:19,620
+ب avoid riskفزي ما شوفنا ال utility بتساوي ال
+
+416
+00:34:19,620 --> 00:34:24,680
+expected expected return minus half of risk
+
+417
+00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:28,800
+preference times of the sigma squared طلعوا هيك
+
+418
+00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:36,260
+هذا أخر جدول نحكي فيه investor risk طلعوا رقم
+
+419
+00:34:36,260 --> 00:34:41,600
+اتنين okay investor risk aversion اتنين تلاتة و نص
+
+420
+00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:46,440
+خمسة سؤال بسيط من عنده risk aversion أعلى
+
+421
+00:34:49,170 --> 00:34:53,710
+أبو 2 ولا أبو الخمسة؟ أبو الخمسة طيب ال utility
+
+422
+00:34:53,710 --> 00:34:58,330
+شوفوا ال utility احنا طبخنا القانون العائد 7%
+
+423
+00:34:58,330 --> 00:35:02,710
+expected return اللي كلهم 7% احنا ايش هنغير هنغير
+
+424
+00:35:02,710 --> 00:35:08,590
+ال a بس ال نص نص ال a زي ما تشوفين بس غيرنا ال a
+
+425
+00:35:08,590 --> 00:35:13,150
+اتنى تلتة و نص لاحظنا
+
+426
+00:35:13,150 --> 00:35:24,640
+ان بتاع ال two6.75% إبتاع الخمسة 6.38% علاقة عكسية
+
+427
+00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:33,760
+طيب نكمل إذا كانت تسعة برضه هنلاحظ شوفوا الفرج إذا
+
+428
+00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:37,280
+كانت تلتاشر في المية برضه شوفوا الفرج تلاتة في
+
+429
+00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:41,520
+المية تسعة في المية تقريبا تلت أبعاث يعني إذا كل
+
+430
+00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:47,070
+ما احنا بتكون ال a سبعتنا أقلكل ما كان ال return
+
+431
+00:35:47,070 --> 00:35:50,490
+أعلى او ال utility خدوا بالكم ال utility المنفع
+
+432
+00:35:50,490 --> 00:35:56,610
+أعلى فبناخد في عين الاعتبار طبعا انه أفضل ال
+
+433
+00:35:56,610 --> 00:36:03,710
+utility هذا أفضل رغم انه المخاطر واحدة شوفوا احنا
+
+434
+00:36:03,710 --> 00:36:07,530
+ثبتنا المخاطر واحدة والعائد واحد بس روحنا ايش
+
+435
+00:36:07,530 --> 00:36:12,190
+غيرنا غيرنا بس ال a اذا الكلام اللي كنا نحكي زي ما
+
+436
+00:36:12,190 --> 00:36:16,660
+انه العائد والمخاطرعلاقة أرضية هان بتجه في العلاقة
+
+437
+00:36:16,660 --> 00:36:20,400
+وبنقول لأ أن الأمر مش هيك مش بس risk و return لأ
+
+438
+00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:25,780
+القصة أنه في ال individual preferences يعني واحد
+
+439
+00:36:25,780 --> 00:36:29,080
+مثلا أعطيكوا أخر إشي قبل ما نمشي اتنين راحوا على
+
+440
+00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:34,220
+البحر طلع أول واحد قال البحر كبير التاني قال لأ يا
+
+441
+00:36:34,220 --> 00:36:39,600
+راجل هذا البحر صغير البحر هو البحر بس هذا is a
+
+442
+00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,770
+good swimmer and this is a bad swimmerيعني هذا
+
+443
+00:36:42,770 --> 00:36:45,490
+واحد سبيح وبتاني بيعرفش يسبح وبتاني اللي بيعرفش
+
+444
+00:36:45,490 --> 00:36:50,510
+يسبح أكيد هيقول البحر كبير فبترجع لإيه اللي هو ال
+
+445
+00:36:50,510 --> 00:36:54,090
+preferences هذه ال preferences كانت مجهولة في ال
+
+446
+00:36:54,090 --> 00:36:55,950
+investments اليوم احنا ضفناها في ال investments
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3e1e0593dbd223375520da25ed25523dae9fa5c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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"text": "فكانوا جايبين عن سيدة صينية she's a business lady هذه بتكون risk neutral عالية كتير عندها اه فدخلت في مشروع مشروع اللي هو ال fabric industries اللي هي غيرت كتير في شكل الاقتصاد الصيني فكان هي احتمال الفشل عالي كتير فتعاون ال .. تعاون Bloomberg بيقول يعني why you take this risk", "tokens": [5172, 41361, 14407, 10874, 47302, 3555, 9957, 18871, 8608, 25708, 3660, 20328, 9957, 10632, 750, 311, 257, 1606, 7262, 29538, 39894, 30544, 3148, 10598, 6225, 6027, 10632, 9122, 2655, 13546, 43242, 11296, 1975, 3224, 6156, 3215, 9778, 1211, 2655, 8978, 37893, 32887, 3615, 37893, 32887, 3615, 13672, 1829, 31439, 2423, 7253, 13284, 13672, 1829, 39896, 32771, 13546, 2655, 9122, 2655, 13546, 8978, 13412, 28820, 42963, 38149, 9381, 18513, 31767, 9957, 1829, 6156, 41361, 39896, 1975, 33753, 2304, 6027, 27188, 8592, 1211, 6225, 6027, 1829, 9122, 2655, 13546, 6156, 2655, 3615, 995, 11536, 2423, 4386, 37279, 995, 11536, 40363, 4724, 1829, 39648, 37495, 22653, 983, 291, 747, 341, 3148], "avg_logprob": 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اللي بيعملوا gambling يعني نيجي عندنا مثلا خمسين حصان بدهم يتسابقوا و أنا بعمل gamble على حصان واحد و واحد بعمل على حصان التالي و التالي نسبة اللي احنا نربح واحد من الخمسين", "tokens": [8297, 8265, 6269, 264, 912, 33783, 281, 1944, 10070, 8978, 2423, 27077, 8265, 6269, 264, 912, 33783, 281, 264, 1944, 10070, 37495, 22653, 16247, 8592, 9778, 33546, 13672, 1829, 4724, 1829, 25957, 1211, 14407, 27077, 37495, 22653, 8717, 1829, 7435, 1829, 43242, 8315, 50113, 15040, 16490, 2304, 3794, 9957, 11331, 9381, 7649, 47525, 16095, 7251, 2655, 3794, 16758, 4587, 14407, 4032, 41850, 4724, 25957, 1211, 44128, 15844, 11331, 9381, 7649, 36764, 24401, 4032, 36764, 24401, 4724, 25957, 1211, 15844, 11331, 9381, 7649, 16712, 6027, 1829, 4032, 16712, 6027, 1829, 8717, 35457, 3660, 13672, 1829, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 25513, 5016, 36764, 24401, 9154, 33962, 2304, 3794, 9957], "avg_logprob": -0.14395254891779688, "compression_ratio": 1.9746835443037976, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1344.56, 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ال gambling لأنه ال investors are rational", "tokens": [39237, 10943, 22807, 46599, 6027, 2655, 6027, 1829, 16247, 8592, 9778, 33546, 16247, 34740, 9957, 43242, 16095, 8717, 36178, 42963, 33753, 2304, 6027, 24976, 25513, 5016, 6156, 28814, 15730, 4032, 36520, 8315, 36145, 3224, 1975, 5016, 8315, 28242, 8315, 19446, 5551, 28820, 8315, 11296, 43242, 8315, 8717, 36178, 42963, 33753, 2304, 6027, 9307, 6156, 3555, 30544, 27077, 1392, 11519, 366, 4950, 281, 1949, 2423, 11519, 45030, 4117, 3794, 2423, 1608, 16381, 4032, 3615, 4117, 3794, 2423, 27077, 5296, 33456, 3224, 2423, 11519, 366, 15090], "avg_logprob": -0.18602940895978143, "compression_ratio": 1.7183098591549295, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1374.6999999999998, "end": 1375.62, "word": "تمام؟", "probability": 0.6713460286458334}, {"start": 1375.62, "end": 1376.54, "word": " وبالتالي", "probability": 0.8685546875}, {"start": 1376.54, "end": 1376.96, "word": " الأشخاص", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 1376.96, "end": 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0.93115234375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 52, "seek": 142175, "start": 1401.05, "end": 1421.75, "text": "طب ليش احنا بحكيلكوا الكلام هذا لأنه عشان تعرفوا مخاطر ال investments مانكونش احنا مانكونش speculator اذا كان speculator ممكن يكون بحسوبة و gambling okay؟", "tokens": [9566, 3555, 32239, 8592, 1975, 5016, 8315, 4724, 5016, 4117, 1829, 23275, 14407, 2423, 28820, 10943, 23758, 5296, 33456, 3224, 6225, 8592, 7649, 6055, 3615, 28480, 14407, 3714, 9778, 41193, 2288, 2423, 13784, 19446, 1863, 30544, 8592, 1975, 5016, 8315, 19446, 1863, 30544, 8592, 1608, 16381, 1975, 15730, 25961, 1608, 16381, 3714, 43020, 7251, 30544, 4724, 5016, 3794, 37746, 3660, 4032, 27077, 1392, 22807], "avg_logprob": -0.19326923076923078, "compression_ratio": 1.478527607361963, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1401.05, "end": 1401.25, "word": "طب", "probability": 0.92724609375}, {"start": 1401.25, "end": 1401.51, "word": " ليش", "probability": 0.87353515625}, {"start": 1401.51, "end": 1401.65, "word": 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1445.15, "text": "يعني مثلا إجاني شخص هاطيكم مثال على ال gambling و هذا ممكن تكون أنا حكيت المفروض ما تكونش لكن إذا كانت موجودة عندنا في غزة ماعقوب .. ماعقوب في مشكلة عند الشخص اللي بيعملها يعني إجاني واحد من الشارع و قال لي والله اسمع و في استثمار أعطيني بس ألف دولار بجيبلك خمس ألف دولار و أنا مغمض هذا إيش gambling يعني إيش gambling يعني زي لعب لجمار", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 50113, 15040, 11933, 7435, 7649, 1829, 13412, 9778, 9381, 8032, 41193, 1829, 24793, 50113, 6027, 15844, 2423, 27077, 4032, 23758, 3714, 43020, 6055, 30544, 41850, 11331, 4117, 36081, 9673, 5172, 32887, 11242, 19446, 6055, 30544, 8592, 44381, 11933, 15730, 25961, 2655, 3714, 29245, 23328, 3660, 43242, 8315, 8978, 32771, 11622, 3660, 19446, 3615, 4587, 37746, 4386, 19446, 3615, 4587, 37746, 8978, 37893, 28820, 3660, 43242, 25124, 9778, 9381, 13672, 1829, 4724, 1829, 25957, 1211, 11296, 37495, 22653, 11933, 7435, 7649, 1829, 36764, 24401, 9154, 25124, 9640, 3615, 4032, 50239, 32239, 16070, 43761, 24525, 2304, 3615, 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high risk", "tokens": [6027, 2736, 4724, 1829, 11622, 25708, 20449, 2423, 3148, 20449, 28242, 10943, 1975, 8315, 19446, 44713, 5172, 3215, 2655, 8592, 9154, 9673, 5016, 31845, 19913, 3660, 42963, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 10632, 9673, 5016, 31845, 19913, 3660, 42963, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 10632, 16472, 3224, 1975, 8315, 3714, 7435, 2304, 3615, 3714, 7435, 2304, 2407, 27884, 1975, 3215, 2407, 9307, 44713, 12984, 2304, 9640, 10632, 4724, 5016, 1829, 12984, 16472, 3224, 6055, 11622, 25708, 24976, 3615, 16373, 3215, 4032, 6055, 4587, 1211, 1211, 9673, 9778, 41193, 2288, 23758, 2423, 3224, 3215, 5172, 23758, 25124, 17082, 1211, 13672, 1829, 4724, 1829, 4587, 9381, 3215, 8978, 3224, 42963, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 8608, 2304, 3615, 8315, 8717, 2655, 9566, 1211, 3615, 1975, 5016, 8315, 15844, 25124, 28820, 23758, 45164, 23032, 1211, 3615, 8315, 8032, 47302, 12583, 2295, 3148, 4032, 6399, 3148, 4032, 1090, 3148], "avg_logprob": -0.13975086912408574, "compression_ratio": 2.024193548387097, 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{"start": 2205.71, "end": 2206.03, "word": " أكيد", "probability": 0.8697916666666666}, {"start": 2206.03, "end": 2206.29, "word": " هيقول", "probability": 0.6036376953125}, {"start": 2206.29, "end": 2206.59, "word": " البحر", "probability": 0.9563802083333334}, {"start": 2206.59, "end": 2206.91, "word": " كبير", "probability": 0.99267578125}, {"start": 2206.91, "end": 2208.55, "word": " فبترجع", "probability": 0.732861328125}, {"start": 2208.55, "end": 2209.11, "word": " لإيه", "probability": 0.6551513671875}, {"start": 2209.11, "end": 2210.23, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.82421875}, {"start": 2210.23, "end": 2210.39, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.9814453125}, {"start": 2210.39, "end": 2210.51, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9375}, {"start": 2210.51, "end": 2211.03, "word": " preferences", "probability": 0.78564453125}, {"start": 2211.03, "end": 2211.97, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.5947265625}, {"start": 2211.97, "end": 2212.11, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.97607421875}, {"start": 2212.11, "end": 2212.85, "word": " preferences", "probability": 0.76708984375}, {"start": 2212.85, "end": 2213.39, "word": " كانت", "probability": 0.968505859375}, {"start": 2213.39, "end": 2213.91, "word": " مجهولة", "probability": 0.95048828125}, {"start": 2213.91, "end": 2213.99, "word": " في", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 2213.99, "end": 2214.09, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.97705078125}, {"start": 2214.09, "end": 2214.43, "word": " investments", "probability": 0.89501953125}, {"start": 2214.43, "end": 2214.85, "word": " اليوم", "probability": 0.925048828125}, {"start": 2214.85, "end": 2215.01, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.85546875}, {"start": 2215.01, "end": 2215.41, "word": " ضفناها", "probability": 0.8409423828125}, {"start": 2215.41, "end": 2215.55, "word": " في", "probability": 0.9716796875}, {"start": 2215.55, "end": 2215.61, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9814453125}, {"start": 2215.61, "end": 2215.95, "word": " investments", 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc_raw.srt
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index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..db187f4f3853f199ba532883479e0f72943a0ef7
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+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/5yrJgE7a-tc_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1788 @@
+1
+00:00:21,430 --> 00:00:24,590
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم ان شاء الله اليوم هنحكي ب
+
+2
+00:00:24,590 --> 00:00:26,930
+chapter 6 اللي هو risk aversion and capital
+
+3
+00:00:26,930 --> 00:00:31,470
+allocation risk aversion اللي هو تجنب المخاطر
+
+4
+00:00:31,470 --> 00:00:38,710
+وتوزيع رأس المال يعني مثلا انا عندي استثمارات
+
+5
+00:00:38,710 --> 00:00:48,450
+استثمارات فيها مخاطر عالية وفي مخاطر مخفضة في
+
+6
+00:00:48,450 --> 00:00:55,590
+عندي risk aversionأه في عند risk aversion ال risk
+
+7
+00:00:55,590 --> 00:01:00,350
+aversion هي تجنب المخاطر و عند capital allocation
+
+8
+00:01:00,350 --> 00:01:05,790
+ال capital allocation توزيع الموارد لو
+
+9
+00:01:05,790 --> 00:01:10,470
+عندنا احنا مجموعة استثمارات هذه الاستثمارات مافي
+
+10
+00:01:10,470 --> 00:01:13,990
+استثمار مشابه للاخر يعني في عندنا استثمارات عالية
+
+11
+00:01:13,990 --> 00:01:19,580
+المخاطر و استثمارات منخفضة المخاطرفي بعض ال
+
+12
+00:01:19,580 --> 00:01:23,100
+investors بعض المستثمرين بيروحوا على استثمارات
+
+13
+00:01:23,100 --> 00:01:27,540
+خاطرة جدا وبعض ال investors بيروحوا على استثمارات
+
+14
+00:01:27,540 --> 00:01:33,740
+متوسطة الخطورة ومستثمرين آخرين بيروحوا على متدنية
+
+15
+00:01:33,740 --> 00:01:38,560
+الخطورة طيب اذا كل every investors or every
+
+16
+00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:46,040
+investor has its own risk criteria كل مستثمر اللي
+
+17
+00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:49,910
+هو risk criteria خاصة فيهيعني مثلا لو جينا قولنا
+
+18
+00:01:49,910 --> 00:01:55,050
+شاب صغير يعني في ال twenties بخلف عن راجل old man
+
+19
+00:01:55,050 --> 00:02:00,530
+in his seventies طبعا يعني راجل أو شاب عمره عشرين
+
+20
+00:02:00,530 --> 00:02:04,990
+سنة بخلف عن اختياره عمره سبعين سنة الاختيار اللي
+
+21
+00:02:04,990 --> 00:02:07,950
+عمره سبعين سنة بحتاج ل investments يكون ال risk
+
+22
+00:02:07,950 --> 00:02:12,350
+تماما خفض و الشاب الصغير العشرين مش مشكلة عنده ال
+
+23
+00:02:12,350 --> 00:02:18,560
+risk ممكن يكون عاليلو أجينا احنا أخدنا مثلا بين
+
+24
+00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:26,300
+مثلا أرمالة وبين بنت فهنجد أن الأرمالة الاستثمار
+
+25
+00:02:26,300 --> 00:02:29,440
+تبعها بتكون very conservative لأن عندها ممكن تكون
+
+26
+00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:32,820
+عندها أولاد عندها .. بتتربيهم فإن انتوا بكرا
+
+27
+00:02:32,820 --> 00:02:38,100
+متصيروا managers أو مدرى او يعني ناس تفهم في
+
+28
+00:02:38,100 --> 00:02:44,430
+الاستثمارفال .. ال .. ال investor criteria خصائص
+
+29
+00:02:44,430 --> 00:02:48,110
+الشخص نفسها هي اللي بتحكم the level of risk اللي
+
+30
+00:02:48,110 --> 00:02:52,980
+بتحكم مستوى المخاطرفزي ما حكينا ال old man is not
+
+31
+00:02:52,980 --> 00:02:57,380
+as him as the young one يعني الزلمة الكبير مش زي
+
+32
+00:02:57,380 --> 00:03:02,920
+الشاب الصغير ال water lady is not as him as the
+
+33
+00:03:02,920 --> 00:03:08,660
+unmarried lady يعني البنت الصغيرة مش زي المدامة أو
+
+34
+00:03:08,660 --> 00:03:11,580
+الأرمالة مثلا هذه بدتكون investment criteria very
+
+35
+00:03:11,580 --> 00:03:17,160
+conservative this is ممكن very high riskلو أجينا
+
+36
+00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:22,100
+احنا مثلا أخدنا retired people الناس المتقاعدين
+
+37
+00:03:22,100 --> 00:03:25,920
+بيكون عندهم ال risk مخافض أكتر من ال working
+
+38
+00:03:25,920 --> 00:03:29,900
+people الناس اللي بيشتغلوا فبدنا نفكر في ال .. في
+
+39
+00:03:29,900 --> 00:03:34,340
+ال .. so we classified people based in the .. in
+
+40
+00:03:34,340 --> 00:03:38,100
+their criteria so we have risk lovers we have risk
+
+41
+00:03:38,100 --> 00:03:42,460
+neutrals and we have risk avoiders يعني في عندنا
+
+42
+00:03:42,460 --> 00:03:47,450
+ناس بتجنبوا المخاطرفى ناس neutral ايش neutral؟
+
+43
+00:03:47,450 --> 00:03:52,310
+they don't care about risk اه they take the risk
+
+44
+00:03:52,310 --> 00:03:56,810
+as enjoyment بياخدوا ال risk as ايش؟ enjoyment ايش
+
+45
+00:03:56,810 --> 00:04:01,610
+enjoyment؟ يعني استمتاع مغامرة زى اللى بتشوفوه هم
+
+46
+00:04:01,610 --> 00:04:07,010
+دول they are .. they are gambling on horses يعني
+
+47
+00:04:07,010 --> 00:04:11,650
+اللى بيرهنوا على الحصن هذا .. هذا is for enjoyment
+
+48
+00:04:12,940 --> 00:04:17,000
+يعني كتير كل يوم تشوفوهم حتى إذا في .. في .. في
+
+49
+00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,600
+غزة مثلا نجد الظاهر عادي موجودة إن ممكن ناس يعملوا
+
+50
+00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,820
+gambling على الحصن مين which is the winner؟ مين هو
+
+51
+00:04:23,820 --> 00:04:29,100
+ال winner؟ ومين which is the second winner؟ طبعا؟
+
+52
+00:04:29,100 --> 00:04:33,700
+so this is the thing so .. so this is .. this
+
+53
+00:04:33,700 --> 00:04:36,980
+chapter six is mainly focus on the risk aversion
+
+54
+00:04:36,980 --> 00:04:38,620
+and risk neutral
+
+55
+00:05:01,110 --> 00:05:04,690
+المستثمرين في طبيعة بعض المستثمرين أن هما في avoid
+
+56
+00:05:04,690 --> 00:05:06,010
+risk يتجنبوا المخاطر
+
+57
+00:05:09,230 --> 00:05:13,330
+لدرجة ان هذه المخاطر مرتبطة في ال rewards يعني في
+
+58
+00:05:13,330 --> 00:05:19,690
+المكافأة يعني هم مش هيخاطروا إلا إذا اتكافؤوا هيك
+
+59
+00:05:19,690 --> 00:05:23,930
+المفهومة المكافأة
+
+60
+00:05:23,930 --> 00:05:28,010
+يعني المخاطر مرتبطة بالمكافأة هذا الشكل الطبيعي
+
+61
+00:05:28,010 --> 00:05:31,170
+هذا الشكل الطبيعي ان ال reward is linked with the
+
+62
+00:05:31,170 --> 00:05:36,510
+risk so the higher level of risk is higher level
+
+63
+00:05:36,510 --> 00:05:43,780
+of rewardالproblem is المشكلة وين انه if you
+
+64
+00:05:43,780 --> 00:05:47,820
+compare with هذه يعني دايما اللي بنحكي فيها if we
+
+65
+00:05:47,820 --> 00:05:52,820
+have A and B and I ask you this question in the
+
+66
+00:05:52,820 --> 00:05:55,480
+last meeting or the last week which you prefer A
+
+67
+00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,820
+or B سألنا سؤالها بأنه أفضل A ولا B
+
+68
+00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:09,700
+A تحمل أسرع أسرع فإذا كان هذا أسرع و هذا مكتوب فهو
+
+69
+00:06:09,700 --> 00:06:18,920
+A تحمل أسرع أسرع من B فماذا هي الإجابة؟ أيه أفضل؟
+
+70
+00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:28,460
+A أو B؟ أو أيه أفضل؟ A أو B؟ B لأن B أفضل من I
+
+71
+00:06:28,460 --> 00:06:33,700
+حسنًا و بعض الناسممكن تسأل، حسناً، A تحافظ على
+
+72
+00:06:33,700 --> 00:06:37,880
+أعلى إعادة أو أعلى خطر؟ لذا، لماذا يجب أن أحافظ
+
+73
+00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:45,560
+على أكتر خطر؟ حسناً،
+
+74
+00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:50,880
+فالمشكلة هي .. هي
+
+75
+00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:57,200
+.. ما هي استخدام E و ما هي استخدام P؟ استخدام
+
+76
+00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:03,920
+المنفعةإيش أنا مستفيد من A؟ وإيش أنا مستفيد من B؟
+
+77
+00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:06,120
+this is the .. this is the things you remember
+
+78
+00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,540
+they .. when I talk about Sharpe Ratio مذاكرين لما
+
+79
+00:07:09,540 --> 00:07:13,060
+حكيت عن Sharpe Ratio؟ أه .. الأسبوع الفاتر
+
+80
+00:07:13,060 --> 00:07:19,300
+ماذاكرين؟ إيش Sharpe Ratio بتحكي؟ Sharpe Ratio
+
+81
+00:07:19,300 --> 00:07:26,860
+بتحكي link the expected return with the risk so if
+
+82
+00:07:26,860 --> 00:07:31,470
+I have one unit in riskكمية تخلق أو تخلق عدد عدد
+
+83
+00:07:31,470 --> 00:07:32,090
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+84
+00:07:32,090 --> 00:07:35,650
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+85
+00:07:35,650 --> 00:07:36,090
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+86
+00:07:36,090 --> 00:07:37,470
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+87
+00:07:37,470 --> 00:07:39,030
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+88
+00:07:39,030 --> 00:07:47,550
+عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد عدد
+
+89
+00:07:47,550 --> 00:07:57,250
+عد
+
+90
+00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:03,640
+with a return utility of P is a function of risk
+
+91
+00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:09,080
+and return يعني هي المنفعة يعني خلينا نعطيكوا مثال
+
+92
+00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:15,100
+بسيط على المنفعة لو جيبنا احنا شخصين تنان و جيبنا
+
+93
+00:08:15,100 --> 00:08:19,480
+كاسة مي قولنا له تفضل هذه تفضل هذه مين اكتر واحد
+
+94
+00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:25,220
+بيستفيد من كاسة مي it depends العطشان بالاخير انه
+
+95
+00:08:25,220 --> 00:08:28,770
+this is holding the same amount ofof water and
+
+96
+00:08:28,770 --> 00:08:31,190
+this is the same amount of water the same thing
+
+97
+00:08:31,190 --> 00:08:37,890
+but the difference is the utility المنفع how the
+
+98
+00:08:37,890 --> 00:08:41,170
+water utilize you when you are getting thirsty
+
+99
+00:08:41,170 --> 00:08:45,610
+it's important to take the water if you are not so
+
+100
+00:08:45,610 --> 00:08:48,150
+it is not important to you يعني إذا كنا احنا
+
+101
+00:08:48,150 --> 00:08:53,250
+عطشانين الماء مهمة بالنسبة لنا بس إذا ماكناش it
+
+102
+00:08:53,250 --> 00:08:57,910
+doesn't matter then ال riskلو اجينا احنا حكينا في
+
+103
+00:08:57,910 --> 00:09:03,610
+عندنا ف .. في عندنا سهم A risk وعالي risk ومخفض
+
+104
+00:09:03,610 --> 00:09:11,650
+lower risk okay و سهم B is higher risk okay صعب لو
+
+105
+00:09:11,650 --> 00:09:14,990
+اجينا احنا حكينا مثال لو احنا ال .. الناس ال
+
+106
+00:09:14,990 --> 00:09:21,710
+investors in B ناس very rich people يعني ناس rich
+
+107
+00:09:23,940 --> 00:09:29,040
+إذا ماعندهم مش مشكلة في B، لأ they are rich، إذا
+
+108
+00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:33,760
+they .. the utility of B is good for them، يعني
+
+109
+00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:37,660
+منفعة B كويسة لهم، however the utility of A is not
+
+110
+00:09:37,660 --> 00:09:43,930
+good for them، المنفعة بتاعة A مش مهمة لهملكن if
+
+111
+00:09:43,930 --> 00:09:47,370
+the opposite لو احنا أخدنا عادي that's normal
+
+112
+00:09:47,370 --> 00:09:50,610
+people يعني الناس عاديين ممكن they prefer a rather
+
+113
+00:09:50,610 --> 00:09:54,490
+than b because the utility of a is greater than b
+
+114
+00:09:54,490 --> 00:09:59,410
+so the idea here is the utility depends on the
+
+115
+00:09:59,410 --> 00:10:04,530
+criteria of people ال utility بتعتمد على إيش؟ على
+
+116
+00:10:04,530 --> 00:10:08,490
+ال criteria تبع الناس يعني على خصائص الناس لما انا
+
+117
+00:10:08,490 --> 00:10:13,860
+أعطيتكم مثلا قلنا جيبنا كسة مي لواحد ولا لآخرواحد
+
+118
+00:10:13,860 --> 00:10:17,620
+استفد منها وواحد مااستفدش منها it means we are the
+
+119
+00:10:17,620 --> 00:10:20,240
+same people يعني وخلّيني أقول the same weight نفس
+
+120
+00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,420
+الوزن okay ونفس الجنس ونفس الأشياء قولنا لها أفضل
+
+121
+00:10:23,420 --> 00:10:26,340
+هاي كاسة ماي وانت كاسة ماي you see and evaluate
+
+122
+00:10:26,340 --> 00:10:33,120
+the utility وخلّينا نقرر بال utility so
+
+123
+00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,860
+it depends on the criteria so what is the criteria
+
+124
+00:10:35,860 --> 00:10:39,120
+of .. of .. of the people from the investment
+
+125
+00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:43,210
+point of view من وجهة نظر المستثمين is ais
+
+126
+00:10:43,210 --> 00:10:49,110
+measured by A, A is risk preferences tool يعني
+
+127
+00:10:49,110 --> 00:10:52,570
+احنا بنجيس يعني لما يجينا يجيبنا كأس المي كيف
+
+128
+00:10:52,570 --> 00:10:54,750
+عرفنا ال utility تبعته، جداش هو عطشان، جداش
+
+129
+00:10:54,750 --> 00:10:58,530
+هستفيد، صح؟ فكل ما زاد عطشه، كل ما بده استفادته
+
+130
+00:10:58,530 --> 00:11:03,550
+أكتر من المي ال A هي measure لل utility لل risk
+
+131
+00:11:03,550 --> 00:11:09,400
+preferencesmeasure لل risk preferences يعني جداش
+
+132
+00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:13,740
+هو بيفضل و جداش هو ببتعد عن المخازن هذه a يتم
+
+133
+00:11:13,740 --> 00:11:17,380
+تقديرها يعني لو أنا جيت اعملت interview مع كوكل
+
+134
+00:11:17,380 --> 00:11:21,540
+كوكل one by one عشان اقرر which a هلاجي انه في
+
+135
+00:11:21,540 --> 00:11:26,280
+many a'sin this class كل واحدة إلها a مختلفة عن
+
+136
+00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:31,880
+الأخرى يعني واحدة مثلا يعني أمورها تمام بتدرس منيح
+
+137
+00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:40,100
+يعني very sticky with her study so a بتكون يعني دي
+
+138
+00:11:40,100 --> 00:11:44,040
+متوسطة واحدة من البنات مش موضوع كتير الدراسة يعني
+
+139
+00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:48,760
+this studying is for enjoyment so a will deal with
+
+140
+00:11:49,830 --> 00:11:52,690
+يعني في ناس جايين دراسة تبعتهم for on جامعة يعني
+
+141
+00:11:52,690 --> 00:11:55,010
+just to go to the university and see the people
+
+142
+00:11:55,010 --> 00:11:58,990
+and you can chitchat other people no ال study is
+
+143
+00:11:58,990 --> 00:12:01,610
+for the future for them is the future for them
+
+144
+00:12:01,610 --> 00:12:04,610
+الناس لأ ال study is future for them so they
+
+145
+00:12:04,610 --> 00:12:08,970
+cannot gamble on this مافيش عندهم gambling okay
+
+146
+00:12:08,970 --> 00:12:12,850
+فبتكون ال a تبعتهم عالية كتير so it depends ايش
+
+147
+00:12:12,850 --> 00:12:15,990
+المستوى بتاع ال a للشخص يعني خلينا أعطيكم مثال
+
+148
+00:12:15,990 --> 00:12:21,470
+بدينا في حكينا أنه في عندنا old manوحكينا في young
+
+149
+00:12:21,470 --> 00:12:29,510
+man okay very young ال old man ال risk preference
+
+150
+00:12:29,510 --> 00:12:34,750
+طبعته هتكون عالي و لا مخفضة طب خليني أسألك ال risk
+
+151
+00:12:34,750 --> 00:12:37,650
+avoided avoiding avoiding risk عالي و لا مخفضة
+
+152
+00:12:37,650 --> 00:12:45,210
+avoiding risk عالي okay اذا ال a هتكون high ال
+
+153
+00:12:45,210 --> 00:12:48,950
+young man هتكون ال risk avoider طبعته عالي و لا
+
+154
+00:12:48,950 --> 00:12:51,760
+مخفضةمخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+155
+00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:52,380
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+156
+00:12:52,380 --> 00:12:58,400
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+157
+00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:07,620
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+158
+00:13:07,620 --> 00:13:07,620
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+159
+00:13:07,620 --> 00:13:11,240
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+160
+00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:15,140
+مخافة
+
+161
+00:13:15,140 --> 00:13:16,540
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+162
+00:13:16,540 --> 00:13:16,620
+مخافة مخافة مخافة مخافة
+
+163
+00:13:20,260 --> 00:13:24,960
+و نحكي مثلا الصبح أنا كنت ب .. يعني بتابع تقرير
+
+164
+00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:30,420
+بيجيبوا على ال BBC بيجيبوا على Bloomberg stars
+
+165
+00:13:30,420 --> 00:13:36,680
+from Asia stars from Asia يعني نجوم من أسيا هدول
+
+166
+00:13:36,680 --> 00:13:39,000
+بيجيبوا the big people in Asia طبعا مش ال
+
+167
+00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:42,000
+politicians people مش الناس بيحكوا في السياسة لأ
+
+168
+00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:47,520
+ناس they do changes in their life or in the people
+
+169
+00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:53,410
+lifeفكانوا جايبين عن سيدة صينية she's a business
+
+170
+00:13:53,410 --> 00:14:00,210
+lady هذه بتكون risk neutral عالية كتير عندها اه
+
+171
+00:14:00,210 --> 00:14:03,290
+فدخلت
+
+172
+00:14:03,290 --> 00:14:06,550
+في مشروع مشروع اللي هو ال fabric industries اللي
+
+173
+00:14:06,550 --> 00:14:11,250
+هي غيرت كتير في شكل الاقتصاد الصيني فكان هي احتمال
+
+174
+00:14:11,250 --> 00:14:16,270
+الفشل عالي كتير فتعاون ال .. تعاون Bloomberg بيقول
+
+175
+00:14:16,270 --> 00:14:20,240
+يعني why you take this riskSo some people in
+
+176
+00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:25,020
+nature they love risk وفينا أصلا they don't want
+
+177
+00:14:25,020 --> 00:14:28,820
+to take the risk فهذه ال risk تبعها تقترب إلى ال
+
+178
+00:14:28,820 --> 00:14:33,680
+zero اللي ال a تبعتها تقترب إلى ال zero يعني كل ما
+
+179
+00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:38,000
+احنا ماشينا على الشمال يعني وصلنا لل a zero يعني
+
+180
+00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:44,300
+اذا أخدنا هذا هيك scale وكان هنا zero كل ما انا
+
+181
+00:14:44,300 --> 00:14:50,440
+ببعد عن السفر بيصير عنده riskavoid بزيت avoiding
+
+182
+00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:55,660
+risk بزيت كل أنا باجي بقترب لل zero بكون ال risk
+
+183
+00:14:55,660 --> 00:15:02,680
+lover بزيت okay when you are zero here it means
+
+184
+00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:08,180
+you are risk neutral risk neutral it means you you
+
+185
+00:15:08,180 --> 00:15:12,780
+are enjoying in risk انت يعني risk is enjoyment is
+
+186
+00:15:12,780 --> 00:15:17,950
+like gambling okayso this is the idea is this new
+
+187
+00:15:17,950 --> 00:15:24,670
+for you هل هذا كلام جديد لانتم على ال risk طبعا
+
+188
+00:15:24,670 --> 00:15:28,510
+بال .. بال investments المتقدم طبعا مش موضوعنا
+
+189
+00:15:28,510 --> 00:15:30,830
+احنا how to measure a موجود في الكتاب how to
+
+190
+00:15:30,830 --> 00:15:36,410
+measure a يعني ممكن انا عملنا test و examples يعني
+
+191
+00:15:36,410 --> 00:15:41,490
+how we can measure a يعني بعطيكم انا استبيان و
+
+192
+00:15:41,490 --> 00:15:47,110
+بتعبوا الاستبيان بقدر اعرف ال a لكل واحدة فيكمطبعا
+
+193
+00:15:47,110 --> 00:15:51,670
+و لو ال a هتيجي من from alpha from alpha يعني from
+
+194
+00:15:51,670 --> 00:15:56,230
+alpha to zero هتكون من alpha to zero يعني from
+
+195
+00:15:56,230 --> 00:16:00,110
+infinity so as I said the utility model gives the
+
+196
+00:16:00,110 --> 00:16:02,810
+optimal allocation between a risky portfolio and a
+
+197
+00:16:02,810 --> 00:16:06,770
+risky free asset what it means it means once we
+
+198
+00:16:06,770 --> 00:16:13,150
+know the utility so we can easily form the
+
+199
+00:16:13,150 --> 00:16:16,890
+portfoliosممكن احنا سهل نعمل portfolios portfolios
+
+200
+00:16:16,890 --> 00:16:19,750
+يعني محفظة because this portfolio includes risky
+
+201
+00:16:19,750 --> 00:16:23,070
+asset يعني asset بتكون عالية المخاطر and risk-free
+
+202
+00:16:23,070 --> 00:16:29,390
+asset و asset متخفطة المخاطر okay based on the
+
+203
+00:16:29,390 --> 00:16:33,430
+utility or based on the A ال A اللي هو risk
+
+204
+00:16:33,430 --> 00:16:38,390
+preferencing or risk avoiding we should know about
+
+205
+00:16:38,390 --> 00:16:42,710
+what it means speculationالكتير بنسمع بال ..
+
+206
+00:16:42,710 --> 00:16:46,050
+بالنشرات الاقتصادي مثلا إذا فتحنا Bloomberg ولا
+
+207
+00:16:46,050 --> 00:16:51,370
+فتحنا مثلا CNN ولا ال BBC ولا ال Reuters ولا هدول
+
+208
+00:16:51,370 --> 00:16:53,830
+الناس يعني I recommend you to do this at least
+
+209
+00:16:53,830 --> 00:16:56,690
+يعني five ten minutes in the morning you just
+
+210
+00:16:56,690 --> 00:17:01,490
+listen يعني بدل ما احنا نسمع شغلات مش كتير بتلزم
+
+211
+00:17:01,490 --> 00:17:07,730
+اه يعني just focus on this speculation speculation
+
+212
+00:17:09,140 --> 00:17:13,060
+taking considerable risk for a concerted gain ال
+
+213
+00:17:13,060 --> 00:17:19,420
+speculation is a risk مخاطر okay but is calculated
+
+214
+00:17:19,420 --> 00:17:27,960
+risk الفرق فيها أنها is calculated risk okay risk
+
+215
+00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:32,060
+مخاطر يعني مخاطر محسوبة بتعرفوا المخاطر المحسوبة
+
+216
+00:17:32,060 --> 00:17:38,170
+ال speculationيعني انا زي ال lady اللي احنا حكينا
+
+217
+00:17:38,170 --> 00:17:40,830
+معاها .. حكينا الصبح و شوفنا التقرير تبع ال star،
+
+218
+00:17:40,830 --> 00:17:44,590
+روحوا انتوا على Bloomberg و اكتبوا Asia .. stars
+
+219
+00:17:44,590 --> 00:17:47,630
+from Asia، في كتير تقارير كتير حلوة انتوا
+
+220
+00:17:47,630 --> 00:17:50,650
+هتستفيدوا منها، بعرف انا احتمالات خسارتي و
+
+221
+00:17:50,650 --> 00:17:55,880
+احتمالات ربحيthis is speculation فمرات أثناء
+
+222
+00:17:55,880 --> 00:18:00,240
+الحديث you speculate on him يعني هل تقامر عليه ال
+
+223
+00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,300
+.. ف is is calculated يعني أنا احتمال أربح و
+
+224
+00:18:03,300 --> 00:18:08,420
+احتمال أخسر بقى is calculated okay parties have
+
+225
+00:18:08,420 --> 00:18:13,720
+heterogeneous expectations ال parties الأشخاص
+
+226
+00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:21,400
+عندهم ال ال heterogeneous expectations الأشخاص
+
+227
+00:18:23,300 --> 00:18:27,800
+عندهم وجهات نظر مختلفة كل واحد عنده وجهات نظر
+
+228
+00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:31,320
+مختلفة وبالتالي مافيش .. يعني إذا إحنا إجينا
+
+229
+00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:38,500
+حاكينا عندي سهم سعره تلاتين سهم سعره تلاتين اليوم
+
+230
+00:18:38,500 --> 00:18:43,320
+طب بكرا كده إيش هيك يصير ففي ناس بيقولوا is up is
+
+231
+00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,900
+down okay
+
+232
+00:18:46,900 --> 00:18:48,840
+فهذا في عندنا heterogeneous belief
+
+233
+00:18:51,690 --> 00:18:56,370
+ال gamble إذا أخدنا ال speculation أخدنا شغل اسمها
+
+234
+00:18:56,370 --> 00:18:59,970
+speculation ال speculation is calculated risk يعني
+
+235
+00:18:59,970 --> 00:19:02,770
+زي ما أنتوا شايفينها taken considerable risk يعني
+
+236
+00:19:02,770 --> 00:19:09,750
+risk محسوب مقابل ما أنا أخد المخاطر هذه بدي أخد
+
+237
+00:19:09,750 --> 00:19:15,170
+العائد gamble طب إيش الفرق بين ال gamble و ال
+
+238
+00:19:15,170 --> 00:19:19,170
+speculation gamble مقامرة مقامرة
+
+239
+00:19:24,420 --> 00:19:30,060
+لأ هو مش مثال ات مش عارفها هي
+
+240
+00:19:30,060 --> 00:19:36,180
+is gambling is a part of enjoyment okay is a part
+
+241
+00:19:36,180 --> 00:19:39,860
+of enjoyment يعني جزء من ال enjoyment الاش ال
+
+242
+00:19:39,860 --> 00:19:46,540
+enjoyment خليني
+
+243
+00:19:46,540 --> 00:19:51,980
+اوضحلكوا إياها خليني أوضحلكوا إياها هلأ نيجي لوحد
+
+244
+00:19:54,210 --> 00:19:58,070
+بنأدم عادي بروحش ع speculation بروح ع شغل اسمه
+
+245
+00:19:58,070 --> 00:20:04,390
+investment استثمار استثمار rational منطقي مابغامرش
+
+246
+00:20:04,390 --> 00:20:09,870
+في الفلوس تبعته هلما تبدأ ثروته تكبر ممكن يبدأ
+
+247
+00:20:09,870 --> 00:20:13,790
+طبعا و في عنده ال criteria انه يعمل مخاطر فهيعمل
+
+248
+00:20:13,790 --> 00:20:18,990
+شغل اسمه speculation هيبدأ يتخذ مخاطر معينة محدودة
+
+249
+00:20:18,990 --> 00:20:25,220
+طيب هل الزلمة هذا الثروة تبعته كبرت كتير؟فهيدخل ع
+
+250
+00:20:25,220 --> 00:20:30,820
+شغل اسمه gambling gambling معناه كلام حتى لو خسر
+
+251
+00:20:30,820 --> 00:20:34,460
+مش هيتأثر على الثروة تبعته يعني مثلا
+
+252
+00:20:37,490 --> 00:20:40,850
+أه مصبرة هلأ ال gambling يعني أعطيكوا مثال لو
+
+253
+00:20:40,850 --> 00:20:44,750
+أجينا احنا شوفنا ال gambling إيش بيسووا يعني اليوم
+
+254
+00:20:44,750 --> 00:20:48,970
+مثلا بارح أو قبل كانت مبارحة بين مثلا برشلونة
+
+255
+00:20:48,970 --> 00:20:52,910
+وريال مدريد إيش في ال gambling ال gambling بيحكوا
+
+256
+00:20:52,910 --> 00:20:56,470
+مش بس في النتائج بيقولوا إنه بأي دقيقة هيدخل الجون
+
+257
+00:20:56,470 --> 00:21:01,650
+هذا gambling و مين هيدخل الجون و من أي متر
+
+258
+00:21:01,650 --> 00:21:05,970
+وبالتالي this is gambling مخاطر is for enjoyment
+
+259
+00:21:08,030 --> 00:21:12,310
+للإيش لل enjoyment لتسلية وهذا فاكرهاش انه so is
+
+260
+00:21:12,310 --> 00:21:19,530
+uncertain outcome outcome for enjoyment للإيش شغل
+
+261
+00:21:19,530 --> 00:21:23,330
+مش مع .. يعني uncertain غير مؤكدة for enjoyment بس
+
+262
+00:21:23,330 --> 00:21:26,590
+هذا مين بيمارسها؟ مانفعش مارسها اللي زي و اللي زي
+
+263
+00:21:26,590 --> 00:21:30,850
+.. مش العالي كمان يعني .. يعني يا بنات في غزة كلها
+
+264
+00:21:30,850 --> 00:21:34,190
+جداش احنا في غزة كلها مافيش حد ممكن يعمل كلام هذا
+
+265
+00:21:34,190 --> 00:21:39,220
+إلا إذا .. إذا بيعملها بكون ..بيكون فيه مشكلة عنده
+
+266
+00:21:39,220 --> 00:21:43,600
+وانتوا عارفين what it means في ال gambling يعني
+
+267
+00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,680
+اذا بيعمل gambling مع الكراه هتكون مشكلة كبيرة
+
+268
+00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:51,140
+عنده اه
+
+269
+00:21:51,140 --> 00:21:54,860
+بس هان يعني كدهش يعني ثروة اكبر و اكبر زعيم تفزع
+
+270
+00:21:54,860 --> 00:21:55,000
+يعني
+
+271
+00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,940
+يعني بتعتمد على ال wealth فهدول ال gambler يعني زي
+
+272
+00:22:01,940 --> 00:22:06,420
+مثلا أحكيكي مثلا ممكن يكون شخصيات مثلا big players
+
+273
+00:22:06,420 --> 00:22:10,660
+رونالدو مثلا ولا ممكن يكون زي Bill Gates هدول ممكن
+
+274
+00:22:10,660 --> 00:22:13,000
+يعملوا gambling لإنه حتى لو خسر مش هتكون عنده
+
+275
+00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:19,260
+مشكلة بس يعني لو خسرها لو كان عنده ثروة وقداش نص
+
+276
+00:22:19,260 --> 00:22:22,560
+مليار دولار ممكن تصل؟ ماظننيش وبالتالي ممكن يتأثر
+
+277
+00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,500
+على الثروة تبعتهمOkay parties assign the same
+
+278
+00:22:26,500 --> 00:22:29,420
+probabilities to possible outcomes في ال gambling
+
+279
+00:22:29,420 --> 00:22:34,300
+parties assign the same probabilities to the
+
+280
+00:22:34,300 --> 00:22:37,460
+possible outcomes يعني الأشخاص اللي بيعملوا
+
+281
+00:22:37,460 --> 00:22:42,960
+gambling يعني نيجي عندنا مثلا خمسين حصان بدهم
+
+282
+00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:48,700
+يتسابقوا و أنا بعمل gamble على حصان واحد و واحد
+
+283
+00:22:48,700 --> 00:22:51,800
+بعمل على حصان التالي و التالي نسبة اللي احنا نربح
+
+284
+00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:57,500
+واحد من الخمسينتمام؟ وبالتالي الأشخاص الأخرين
+
+285
+00:22:57,500 --> 00:23:01,720
+عندهم نفس الاحتمال للربح فإذا وصلنا إنه احنا كلنا
+
+286
+00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,840
+ما أكلناها عندنا نفس الاحتمالات فبكون gambling
+
+287
+00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:08,160
+okay
+
+288
+00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,780
+investors are willing to consider ال investors
+
+289
+00:23:11,780 --> 00:23:18,820
+بعكس ال speculator وعكس ال gambling لأنه ال
+
+290
+00:23:18,820 --> 00:23:22,770
+investors are rationalطب ليش احنا بحكيلكوا الكلام
+
+291
+00:23:22,770 --> 00:23:28,050
+هذا لأنه عشان تعرفوا مخاطر ال investments مانكونش
+
+292
+00:23:28,050 --> 00:23:34,270
+احنا مانكونش speculator اذا كان speculator ممكن
+
+293
+00:23:34,270 --> 00:23:41,750
+يكون بحسوبة و gambling okay؟
+
+294
+00:23:42,390 --> 00:23:45,450
+يعني مثلا إجاني شخص هاطيكم مثال على ال gambling و
+
+295
+00:23:45,450 --> 00:23:48,270
+هذا ممكن تكون أنا حكيت المفروض ما تكونش لكن إذا
+
+296
+00:23:48,270 --> 00:23:50,830
+كانت موجودة عندنا في غزة ماعقوب .. ماعقوب في مشكلة
+
+297
+00:23:50,830 --> 00:23:54,010
+عند الشخص اللي بيعملها يعني إجاني واحد من الشارع و
+
+298
+00:23:54,010 --> 00:23:58,750
+قال لي والله اسمع و في استثمار أعطيني بس ألف دولار
+
+299
+00:23:58,750 --> 00:24:02,490
+بجيبلك خمس ألف دولار و أنا مغمض هذا إيش gambling
+
+300
+00:24:02,490 --> 00:24:08,120
+يعني إيش gambling يعني زي لعب لجمارلو كان ايش مكان
+
+301
+00:24:08,120 --> 00:24:12,860
+هذا الشخص هذا .. هذا ايش اسمه gambling معناه لعب
+
+302
+00:24:12,860 --> 00:24:15,080
+بالجمار كيف اللي بيلعبوا بال .. بالجمار على ال
+
+303
+00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:19,620
+روليتز ايها بالظبط مش هتفرق كتيرلأنه مافيش حسب ال
+
+304
+00:24:19,620 --> 00:24:24,100
+.. الاستثمارات في العالم يعني أكتر استثمار .. أكتر
+
+305
+00:24:24,100 --> 00:24:27,560
+استثمار ممكن ي .. بالاستثمارات العالم إذا استثمرنا
+
+306
+00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:32,940
+بمحفظة دولية هتعطينا 6% نضربها في 2 و 12% ماشي بس
+
+307
+00:24:32,940 --> 00:24:36,440
+أنا قاعد بيقولي الألف دولار بتجيب خمس تلات يعني
+
+308
+00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:40,520
+ماعندي 500% هذا و إحنا مغنطين this is gambling فهو
+
+309
+00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:45,860
+حرام هيعطينا الألف دولارهذا الألف دولار بالنسبة له
+
+310
+00:24:45,860 --> 00:24:48,960
+للشخص اللي بياخدها is enjoyment قاعد بلعب في فلوس
+
+311
+00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,400
+الناس for enjoyment فهو قاعد بيجرب في شغل بيجرب في
+
+312
+00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:57,940
+آخر و اللي تظبط معاه أمورها تمشي so investors will
+
+313
+00:24:57,940 --> 00:25:01,480
+need to consider risk-free assets المستثمرين بدهم
+
+314
+00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:06,780
+دائما بالاستثمار سبعهم بيقارنوا
+
+315
+00:25:06,780 --> 00:25:11,300
+الاستثمار سبعتهم بال free risk assetsيعني أي
+
+316
+00:25:11,300 --> 00:25:13,700
+استثمار أنا بعمله يعني زي ما أنا أعطيكم مثال بقول
+
+317
+00:25:13,700 --> 00:25:19,360
+ال asset الدولي الاستثمارات في العالم اليوم بتعطي
+
+318
+00:25:19,360 --> 00:25:25,020
+1.75% بتعطي عائد هذا الاستثمارات العادية يعني
+
+319
+00:25:25,020 --> 00:25:29,460
+خلاني أحكي اللي مخاطرها أقل شيء وبالتالي أنا بقارن
+
+320
+00:25:29,460 --> 00:25:35,300
+كل الاستثمارات بال risk-free لما ييجي واحد يقول في
+
+321
+00:25:35,300 --> 00:25:39,380
+استثمار بيعطي 500% ماعندي كلام إيهاشمع كلام
+
+322
+00:25:39,380 --> 00:25:43,920
+gambling جداش لأنه بعيد عن 1.75 Speculative
+
+323
+00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:47,960
+positions with positive risk premiums نيجي نحكي ..
+
+324
+00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:56,180
+نشوف كيف ال .. ال risk-free assets زي
+
+325
+00:25:56,180 --> 00:25:59,640
+ما أنتوا بتعرفوا إنه high .. high risk-free assets
+
+326
+00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:04,400
+النقطة هذه risk-free مافيش فيها مخاطر فكل ما أنا
+
+327
+00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:12,810
+أزيد في ال .. المنطقة هذهفيها speculation المنطقة
+
+328
+00:26:12,810 --> 00:26:18,310
+اللي فوق هيك فيها gambling المنطقة
+
+329
+00:26:18,310 --> 00:26:25,030
+هذه فيها conservative investments محافظة
+
+330
+00:26:25,030 --> 00:26:32,210
+فكل ما زاد المخاطر كل ما زادت العائد وبالتالي أنا
+
+331
+00:26:32,210 --> 00:26:39,290
+بقارن نفسي مع ال risk freeكل ما المخاطر بتزيد بطلب
+
+332
+00:26:39,290 --> 00:26:47,190
+premium بطلب reward عاقد بطلب مكافأة لسبب المخاطر
+
+333
+00:26:47,190 --> 00:26:51,090
+الزيادة اللي انا اتحملتها portfolio attractiveness
+
+334
+00:26:51,090 --> 00:26:53,350
+increase with expected return and decrease with
+
+335
+00:26:53,350 --> 00:27:03,410
+riskالمحافظ اللى بتشد انتباهنا و بتكون محافظ جذابة
+
+336
+00:27:03,410 --> 00:27:07,890
+لنا هى المحافظ اللى بتزيد ال expected return
+
+337
+00:27:07,890 --> 00:27:19,770
+العائد و بتقلل المخاطر طيب انتبهوا معناها هى هل
+
+338
+00:27:19,770 --> 00:27:24,470
+جهت انتباهها ؟ خلينا نشوف انتبهوا معناها النقطة هى
+
+339
+00:27:25,820 --> 00:27:36,080
+حكينا إنه هاي A وB وعنا C وعنا مثلا D وF، كلهم على
+
+340
+00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:41,020
+خط السوق، إذا بستثمر فيهم individually، إذا بستثمر
+
+341
+00:27:41,020 --> 00:27:45,980
+فيهم individually، يعني كل واحدة لحال، بنحصل على
+
+342
+00:27:45,980 --> 00:27:50,540
+العوائد على خط السوقلكن أنا هدفي أن أحصل على محفظة
+
+343
+00:27:50,540 --> 00:27:56,000
+استثمارية تقلل المخاطر وتزيد العقد كيف؟ لو أنا
+
+344
+00:27:56,000 --> 00:28:01,740
+أخدت مثلا .. أخدت اللي بضحوط عليهم سيركر A و F و D
+
+345
+00:28:01,740 --> 00:28:10,220
+بضحوطهم مع بعض في محفظة إيش هيصير عندى؟ هيصير عندى
+
+346
+00:28:10,220 --> 00:28:17,570
+ممكن تكون المحفظة موجودة في هذا المكانبدي أخد A و
+
+347
+00:28:17,570 --> 00:28:21,390
+F و D بدي أحطهم في محفظ الاستثمارية يعني معايا انا
+
+348
+00:28:21,390 --> 00:28:25,350
+الف دولار ال الف دولار ممكن انا استثمرها في A
+
+349
+00:28:25,350 --> 00:28:30,970
+لواحدة او ممكن استثمرها في F لواحدة او ممكن
+
+350
+00:28:30,970 --> 00:28:39,190
+استثمرها في A و F و D نوزعهم على التلاتة ايش
+
+351
+00:28:39,190 --> 00:28:46,110
+راح يصير؟ حيصير عندي ممكن يكون العائدOkay العائد
+
+352
+00:28:46,110 --> 00:28:51,950
+يكون في المنطقة هذه تشوفوا كده او هنحكي العائد
+
+353
+00:28:51,950 --> 00:28:59,370
+موجود في هذه المكانة okay في
+
+354
+00:28:59,370 --> 00:29:04,930
+النقطة هذه هذه ايش بتكون عبارة عن تجميع A و F و D
+
+355
+00:29:04,930 --> 00:29:11,650
+طب السؤال ليش؟ واحد فيكو هيحكي طب okay هي عبارة عن
+
+356
+00:29:11,650 --> 00:29:18,020
+A و F و Dعبارة عن مجموع الاسهم التلاتة بقولكم صح
+
+357
+00:29:18,020 --> 00:29:22,240
+هذا من وجهة نظر ال logic تبعتكم but from the
+
+358
+00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:27,160
+mathematical point of view من وجهة نظر محاسبية A
+
+359
+00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:32,400
+لها علاقة في F و A لها علاقة في D و F لها علاقة في
+
+360
+00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:38,700
+D و A لها علاقة في A وبالتالي لما من ناحية رياضية
+
+361
+00:29:38,700 --> 00:29:46,040
+بيبطل مجموع العوائد هو مجموع أوزانهمهتتغير الشكل
+
+362
+00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,000
+الرياضي يعني المعادلات الرياضية هتسمحلي ان انا
+
+363
+00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:53,100
+ازيد العائد و اقلل المخاطر طبعا هذا شوية بنحكي فيه
+
+364
+00:29:53,100 --> 00:29:57,120
+في المستقبل طيب
+
+365
+00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:03,200
+what happens when return increases with risk طب
+
+366
+00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:08,040
+ايش بيصير لما ال return بيزيد مع ال risk؟ال return
+
+367
+00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,520
+بيزيد مع ال risk مع كلام انا ما استفدتش من
+
+368
+00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:15,000
+المحافظة الاستثمارية المحافظة الاستثمارية انه انا
+
+369
+00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:21,420
+مجمع مجموعة ادوات استثمارية بحيث انه تزيد للعائد و
+
+370
+00:30:21,420 --> 00:30:25,460
+تقلل المخاطر هذا الهدف هذا الشغل اللي بيقصد فيه
+
+371
+00:30:25,460 --> 00:30:32,680
+الاستثمار سمعنا نتطلع احنا على الشكل هذا لو طلعنا
+
+372
+00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,900
+هاي portfolio low risk و medium risk و high risk
+
+373
+00:30:37,530 --> 00:30:45,450
+الريسك بريميه 2% ال expected return 7% الريسك بزيد
+
+374
+00:30:45,450 --> 00:30:52,790
+لكن في ال portfolios زي ما نراه كمشوي انه ممكن
+
+375
+00:30:52,790 --> 00:30:58,650
+تزيد العائد و المحاطر تنخفض اذا احنا عملنا
+
+376
+00:30:58,650 --> 00:31:05,670
+portfolios معينة utility
+
+377
+00:31:05,670 --> 00:31:13,310
+functionالـ utility آخرش نحكي فيه عشان انه to
+
+378
+00:31:13,310 --> 00:31:15,970
+summarize the subject utility function utility
+
+379
+00:31:15,970 --> 00:31:20,710
+اللي هو المنفعة حكينا احنا ركزوا يا بنات معناها
+
+380
+00:31:20,710 --> 00:31:28,130
+okay حكينا ان المنفعة هي بتحدد العلاقة بين ال
+
+381
+00:31:28,130 --> 00:31:31,530
+return و بين ال risk مع بعض بتحطهم وبالتالي لما
+
+382
+00:31:31,530 --> 00:31:35,830
+أنا بحكي you ال utilityبتساوي ال expected return
+
+383
+00:31:35,830 --> 00:31:41,810
+اللي هو هذا الجانب as a function of this بس as a
+
+384
+00:31:41,810 --> 00:31:45,570
+function of this هو الفرق بين مخاطر استثمارين
+
+385
+00:31:45,570 --> 00:31:50,450
+وقلنا الفرق بين شغلتين هي نص الفرق صح لما قلنا ما
+
+386
+00:31:50,450 --> 00:31:55,470
+هو الفرق بين خمسة أو عشرة وبالتالي U is equal to
+
+387
+00:31:55,470 --> 00:32:02,830
+the expected return minus half of sigma A or sigma
+
+388
+00:32:02,830 --> 00:32:10,690
+تربيع Aاعتقدكوا ايش معناه ايه؟ ايش معناه ايه؟ ال
+
+389
+00:32:10,690 --> 00:32:18,830
+criteria تبعت كل واحد و ال sigma هي المخاطر ف ال
+
+390
+00:32:18,830 --> 00:32:22,410
+expected return ال utility هي بتساوي كده انا عندي
+
+391
+00:32:22,410 --> 00:32:28,990
+عائل ناقص المخاطر أو ناقص نص المخاطر expected
+
+392
+00:32:28,990 --> 00:32:33,650
+return او a coefficient of risk aversionrisk
+
+393
+00:32:33,650 --> 00:32:36,790
+aversion جداش نجلب المخاطر كل ما بتزيد الرقم هذا
+
+394
+00:32:36,790 --> 00:32:41,690
+بزيد ال risk aversion sigma squared variance of
+
+395
+00:32:41,690 --> 00:32:45,850
+returns half a scaling factor اللي هو معيار وقولنا
+
+396
+00:32:45,850 --> 00:32:51,930
+احنا شرحنا ليش احنا half هاي
+
+397
+00:32:51,930 --> 00:32:54,830
+المعادلة زي ما احنا كنا بنيها الحين اللي هو ال
+
+398
+00:32:54,830 --> 00:32:58,850
+utility عشان انا اعرف جداش احنا بنستفيد لو طلعناها
+
+399
+00:32:58,850 --> 00:33:02,870
+ال utility تبعت ايه بتساويبتساوي ال expected
+
+400
+00:33:02,870 --> 00:33:08,930
+return مؤقس نص ال sigma تربية مضروبة في ال
+
+401
+00:33:08,930 --> 00:33:12,470
+preference بتاعتنا ال a يعني كنا أول أيش نحكي
+
+402
+00:33:12,470 --> 00:33:16,170
+sigma تربية بس بس اليوم لأ دخلنا ال a لإن ال a كل
+
+403
+00:33:16,170 --> 00:33:21,930
+واحد عنده preference خاصة فيه يعني أعطيكم مثل لو
+
+404
+00:33:21,930 --> 00:33:27,230
+أجينا احنايا بنات لو أجينا احنا حكينا فينا اتنين
+
+405
+00:33:27,230 --> 00:33:31,870
+ال a تبعته عالية كتير واحد ال a تبعته ساوي مثلا
+
+406
+00:33:31,870 --> 00:33:38,930
+خمسة وال a تبعته تقترب إلى صفر يعني واحد ال
+
+407
+00:33:38,930 --> 00:33:43,610
+a تبعت أبو الخمسة أبو الواحد يعني لما بدي يربح
+
+408
+00:33:43,610 --> 00:33:47,770
+خمسة في المية بكونش مبسوط لأن هو بيكون مبسوط يا
+
+409
+00:33:47,770 --> 00:33:50,450
+أما بيربح خمسمية في المية يا بيخسر خمسمية في المية
+
+410
+00:33:51,970 --> 00:33:56,350
+لأنه قريب لل risk neutral فهي لأن هذا ال risk is
+
+411
+00:33:56,350 --> 00:33:58,510
+enjoyment for him فلما يكون عنده ربح خمسة في
+
+412
+00:33:58,510 --> 00:34:00,670
+الخمسة في المية معاكينة this is not for enjoyment
+
+413
+00:34:00,670 --> 00:34:05,890
+لكن ابتدائي ال a خمسة هذا he is close to
+
+414
+00:34:05,890 --> 00:34:09,610
+conservative هذا محافظ زي ما أعطاناكوا الخط كل ما
+
+415
+00:34:09,610 --> 00:34:14,810
+بقترب للصفر بصير مخاطر بحبها وكل ما أبتعد بكون أنا
+
+416
+00:34:14,810 --> 00:34:19,620
+ب avoid riskفزي ما شوفنا ال utility بتساوي ال
+
+417
+00:34:19,620 --> 00:34:24,680
+expected expected return minus half of risk
+
+418
+00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:28,800
+preference times of the sigma squared طلعوا هيك
+
+419
+00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:36,260
+هذا أخر جدول نحكي فيه investor risk طلعوا رقم
+
+420
+00:34:36,260 --> 00:34:41,600
+اتنين okay investor risk aversion اتنين تلاتة و نص
+
+421
+00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:46,440
+خمسة سؤال بسيط من عنده risk aversion أعلى
+
+422
+00:34:49,170 --> 00:34:53,710
+أبو 2 ولا أبو الخمسة؟ أبو الخمسة طيب ال utility
+
+423
+00:34:53,710 --> 00:34:58,330
+شوفوا ال utility احنا طبخنا القانون العائد 7%
+
+424
+00:34:58,330 --> 00:35:02,710
+expected return اللي كلهم 7% احنا ايش هنغير هنغير
+
+425
+00:35:02,710 --> 00:35:08,590
+ال a بس ال نص نص ال a زي ما تشوفين بس غيرنا ال a
+
+426
+00:35:08,590 --> 00:35:13,150
+اتنى تلتة و نص لاحظنا
+
+427
+00:35:13,150 --> 00:35:24,640
+ان بتاع ال two6.75% إبتاع الخمسة 6.38% علاقة عكسية
+
+428
+00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:33,760
+طيب نكمل إذا كانت تسعة برضه هنلاحظ شوفوا الفرج إذا
+
+429
+00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:37,280
+كانت تلتاشر في المية برضه شوفوا الفرج تلاتة في
+
+430
+00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:41,520
+المية تسعة في المية تقريبا تلت أبعاث يعني إذا كل
+
+431
+00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:47,070
+ما احنا بتكون ال a سبعتنا أقلكل ما كان ال return
+
+432
+00:35:47,070 --> 00:35:50,490
+أعلى او ال utility خدوا بالكم ال utility المنفع
+
+433
+00:35:50,490 --> 00:35:56,610
+أعلى فبناخد في عين الاعتبار طبعا انه أفضل ال
+
+434
+00:35:56,610 --> 00:36:03,710
+utility هذا أفضل رغم انه المخاطر واحدة شوفوا احنا
+
+435
+00:36:03,710 --> 00:36:07,530
+ثبتنا المخاطر واحدة والعائد واحد بس روحنا ايش
+
+436
+00:36:07,530 --> 00:36:12,190
+غيرنا غيرنا بس ال a اذا الكلام اللي كنا نحكي زي ما
+
+437
+00:36:12,190 --> 00:36:16,660
+انه العائد والمخاطرعلاقة أرضية هان بتجه في العلاقة
+
+438
+00:36:16,660 --> 00:36:20,400
+وبنقول لأ أن الأمر مش هيك مش بس risk و return لأ
+
+439
+00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:25,780
+القصة أنه في ال individual preferences يعني واحد
+
+440
+00:36:25,780 --> 00:36:29,080
+مثلا أعطيكوا أخر إشي قبل ما نمشي اتنين راحوا على
+
+441
+00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:34,220
+البحر طلع أول واحد قال البحر كبير التاني قال لأ يا
+
+442
+00:36:34,220 --> 00:36:39,600
+راجل هذا البحر صغير البحر هو البحر بس هذا is a
+
+443
+00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,770
+good swimmer and this is a bad swimmerيعني هذا
+
+444
+00:36:42,770 --> 00:36:45,490
+واحد سبيح وبتاني بيعرفش يسبح وبتاني اللي بيعرفش
+
+445
+00:36:45,490 --> 00:36:50,510
+يسبح أكيد هيقول البحر كبير فبترجع لإيه اللي هو ال
+
+446
+00:36:50,510 --> 00:36:54,090
+preferences هذه ال preferences كانت مجهولة في ال
+
+447
+00:36:54,090 --> 00:36:55,950
+investments اليوم احنا ضفناها في ال investments
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a1053e86eee1bb58110dd161249b4b635df3bcac
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1459 @@
+1
+00:00:20,670 --> 00:00:24,930
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة الأولى اتخذنا كيف
+
+2
+00:00:24,930 --> 00:00:30,790
+نحسب الـ variance و الـ standard deviation القانون و
+
+3
+00:00:30,790 --> 00:00:33,630
+طلبنا منكم أنه في الـ .. في البيت تحاولوا تعيدوا
+
+4
+00:00:33,630 --> 00:00:40,910
+للحل في حد عاد الحل وطلع عنده إجابات غلط يا بنات
+
+5
+00:00:40,910 --> 00:00:44,970
+في حد رجع البيت وعاد الحل وطلع عنده مش نفس
+
+6
+00:00:44,970 --> 00:00:49,130
+الإجابة اللي موجودة هنا لأنه في الامتحان هجيكم 
+
+7
+00:00:49,130 --> 00:00:57,060
+مثال مشابه له Okay اليوم هنحكي في موضوع مهم الـ how
+
+8
+00:00:57,060 --> 00:01:02,900
+we can calculate the rate of return كيف ممكن نحسب
+
+9
+00:01:02,900 --> 00:01:06,680
+الـ rate of return حكينا الطرق السابقة كنا نعتمد
+
+10
+00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:09,640
+على طريقة اسمها الـ arithmetic method طريقة الـ 
+
+11
+00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:14,360
+arithmetic طريقة الـ arithmetic هي طريقة الحسابية
+
+12
+00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:18,660
+بيسموها في طريقة أخرى بيسموها geometric method
+
+13
+00:01:19,290 --> 00:01:22,770
+geometric methods اللي هو الطريقة الهندسية okay
+
+14
+00:01:22,770 --> 00:01:26,790
+إذا إحنا في أمام two different methods in
+
+15
+00:01:26,790 --> 00:01:30,670
+calculating the rate of return يعني في طريقتين في
+
+16
+00:01:30,670 --> 00:01:34,790
+احتساب الـ rate of return طريقة الـ arithmetic
+
+17
+00:01:34,790 --> 00:01:41,710
+وطريقة الـ geometric okay طريقة الـ arithmetic هي
+
+18
+00:01:41,710 --> 00:01:47,420
+طريقة يعني أغلب الناس بيستخدموها لو إحنا أعطينا
+
+19
+00:01:47,420 --> 00:01:53,180
+مثال for instance أخدنا
+
+20
+00:01:53,180 --> 00:02:02,340
+مثال بقولنا calculate the average rate of return
+
+21
+00:02:02,340 --> 00:02:11,120
+في
+
+22
+00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:17,790
+الـ past year كان 9% في الـ second year 10% في الـ
+
+23
+00:02:17,790 --> 00:02:30,330
+third year 12% 8% and 5% إحنا اجتنح البيانات هذه و
+
+24
+00:02:30,330 --> 00:02:33,710
+بنحسب الـ average rate of 10 مين بعرف يحسب الـ
+
+25
+00:02:33,710 --> 00:02:38,950
+average rate of 10 متوسط متوسط العائد مجموعة مع
+
+26
+00:02:38,950 --> 00:02:48,400
+العددهم يعني بنقول مثلاً 5% بيقول 9 plus 10 plus 12
+
+27
+00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:57,340
+plus 8 plus 5 على 1,2,3,4,5 كم
+
+28
+00:02:57,340 --> 00:03:00,460
+بيطلع؟ هي الآلات الحاسبة معكم أربعة وأربعين و
+
+29
+00:03:00,460 --> 00:03:03,960
+أربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين و
+
+30
+00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:04,620
+أربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين و
+
+31
+00:03:04,620 --> 00:03:05,020
+أربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين و
+
+32
+00:03:05,020 --> 00:03:06,880
+أربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين و
+
+33
+00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:07,460
+أربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين و
+
+34
+00:03:07,460 --> 00:03:09,040
+أربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين و
+
+35
+00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:10,980
+أربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأربعين وأرب
+
+36
+00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:22,220
+8.8 8.8 طيب 8.8 طيب ايش إحنا سوينا عملياً إحنا we
+
+37
+00:03:22,220 --> 00:03:25,180
+use the arithmetic method استخدمنا الـ arithmetic
+
+38
+00:03:25,180 --> 00:03:30,440
+method طريقة الحسابية قلنا اللي the summation of R
+
+39
+00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:36,180
+divided by N okay
+
+40
+00:03:36,180 --> 00:03:41,190
+يعني جمعنا الـ R وقسمناها على N هذه الطريقة اللي
+
+41
+00:03:41,190 --> 00:03:46,610
+إحنا استخدمناها في الـ .. طيب في طريقة ثانية ممكن
+
+42
+00:03:46,610 --> 00:03:50,690
+إحنا نستخدمها؟ طريقة الهندسية، طريقة الهندسية، في
+
+43
+00:03:50,690 --> 00:03:58,330
+حد سمعت عن الطريقة الهندسية؟ كيف؟ طريقة الهندسية
+
+44
+00:03:58,330 --> 00:04:02,910
+يعني مشابهة للمتتاريات طيب خلينا عشان نفهم الطريقة
+
+45
+00:04:02,910 --> 00:04:09,620
+الهندسية ناخد بفعل بسيط طبعاً حطوا في رأسكم أن هذه
+
+46
+00:04:09,620 --> 00:04:12,140
+this is arithmetic method هي طريقة الـ arithmetic
+
+47
+00:04:12,140 --> 00:04:19,560
+الحسابية let's consider this هو هذا هذا هو نفسه
+
+48
+00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:25,420
+هذا هو نفسه هذا بس أنه إحنا الـ R of state divided
+
+49
+00:04:25,420 --> 00:04:31,160
+by N يعني هذه المجموعة تعرفي محاسبياً أو رياضياً
+
+50
+00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:38,740
+اللي هو واحد على N مجموعة R هذه نفسها بياضيان نفس
+
+51
+00:04:38,740 --> 00:04:47,040
+الحاجة يعني يا بنات x على n is equal 1 على n times
+
+52
+00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:55,080
+x معروف بياضيان هذا خلينا
+
+53
+00:04:55,080 --> 00:05:03,640
+ناخد مثال عشان نشوف how we calculate return in
+
+54
+00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:04,280
+different ways
+
+55
+00:05:10,010 --> 00:05:15,730
+خلينا هنا بالجانب هنا لو one of the investors
+
+56
+00:05:15,730 --> 00:05:19,090
+invest his money starting by one hundred dollar
+
+57
+00:05:19,090 --> 00:05:22,890
+يعني واحد من المستثمرين بدأ بمية دولار يعني
+
+58
+00:05:22,890 --> 00:05:28,970
+starting the money by one hundred dollar okay and
+
+59
+00:05:28,970 --> 00:05:32,830
+in the first year he lost fifty dollar and at the
+
+60
+00:05:32,830 --> 00:05:36,970
+end he make one hundred dollar هيبقى السنة الأولى
+
+61
+00:05:36,970 --> 00:05:41,190
+صارت ثروته بخمسين دولار بنهاية السنة الثانية
+
+62
+00:05:41,190 --> 00:05:44,530
+صارت ثروته بمية دولار he started by one
+
+63
+00:05:44,530 --> 00:05:47,870
+hundred and then he end by one hundred what is the
+
+64
+00:05:47,870 --> 00:05:53,470
+return؟ كده إيش العائد؟ يعني هو بدأ بمية وخلص بمية،
+
+65
+00:05:53,470 --> 00:06:00,750
+كده إيش استفاد من هالشغل؟ خمسين خمسين؟ هو بدأ يعني في
+
+66
+00:06:00,750 --> 00:06:03,990
+.. بدأ معه مية دولار وإنتهى بمية دولار، إيش ولا
+
+67
+00:06:03,990 --> 00:06:08,490
+إيش؟ إيش ولا إيش يعني what it means ولا إيش؟ zero so
+
+68
+00:06:08,490 --> 00:06:14,430
+zero because P1 minus P naught على P naught لأن P1
+
+69
+00:06:14,430 --> 00:06:21,470
+هي الـ ending price مية minus مية على مية so it's
+
+70
+00:06:21,470 --> 00:06:25,130
+equal to zero طيب
+
+71
+00:06:25,130 --> 00:06:29,530
+إحنا عاملين ايش سوينا we consider the investment
+
+72
+00:06:29,530 --> 00:06:33,750
+as a one period time يعني اعتبرنا الـ investment كل
+
+73
+00:06:33,750 --> 00:06:35,610
+فترة زمنية واحدة okay
+
+74
+00:06:37,850 --> 00:06:41,310
+now there is other options to calculate return
+
+75
+00:06:41,310 --> 00:06:44,590
+ممكن حد يفكر بطريقة ثانية كيف ممكن نحسب الـ return
+
+76
+00:06:44,590 --> 00:06:56,870
+يعني إحنا حكينا zero which is okay نفسي ممكن يعني
+
+77
+00:06:56,870 --> 00:07:03,930
+خسر خمسين مظبوط وبعدين بدأ بخمسين كسب كم؟ خمسين
+
+78
+00:07:03,930 --> 00:07:09,440
+طيب طب خمسين ماخص خمسين صفر صح؟ طيب خلينا نـ نـ 
+
+79
+00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:16,020
+ندور لكم بيها شوية هلأ إحنا هخسر خمسين صح؟ طيب لو
+
+80
+00:07:16,020 --> 00:07:21,360
+جينا إحنا قلنا minus fifty divided by one hundred
+
+81
+00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:26,500
+مظبوط لأن هو خسر خمسين على المية اللي هو البدأ
+
+82
+00:07:26,500 --> 00:07:32,720
+الاستثمار okay في الفترة الأولى كام خسر؟ minus
+
+83
+00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:38,870
+fifty percent طيب بالفترة الثانية ربح fifty لكن بدل
+
+84
+00:07:38,870 --> 00:07:42,970
+الاستثمار بكام fifty إذا انجداش عمل one hundred
+
+85
+00:07:42,970 --> 00:07:48,870
+percent so if you do the average إذا إحنا بنحسب الـ
+
+86
+00:07:48,870 --> 00:07:53,510
+average minus fifty plus one hundred divided by
+
+87
+00:07:53,510 --> 00:07:59,350
+two so it's equal twenty five percent سبحان
+
+88
+00:07:59,350 --> 00:08:04,590
+الله آه
+
+89
+00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:14,220
+Okay شوفوا كيف
+
+90
+00:08:14,220 --> 00:08:23,820
+سفر؟ minus fifty plus one hundred طيب guess ميهم
+
+91
+00:08:23,820 --> 00:08:27,520
+twenty
+
+92
+00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,800
+five percent طيب what is the difference between
+
+93
+00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:35,270
+the first one which is zero and the second one
+
+94
+00:08:35,270 --> 00:08:39,170
+which is twenty five percent ايش الفرق بين الأولى
+
+95
+00:08:39,170 --> 00:08:45,070
+zero and twenty five percent يعني ايش الفرق بين
+
+96
+00:08:45,070 --> 00:08:51,330
+الأولى والثانية آه آه
+
+97
+00:08:51,330 --> 00:08:54,750
+what is the difference between the first one which
+
+98
+00:08:54,750 --> 00:08:58,950
+make zero percent and the second one which make
+
+99
+00:08:58,950 --> 00:09:03,410
+twenty five percent okay my second question is
+
+100
+00:09:03,630 --> 00:09:07,650
+which is correct؟
+
+101
+00:09:07,650 --> 00:09:12,830
+مين الصح فيهم؟ so some people saying the first one
+
+102
+00:09:12,830 --> 00:09:16,390
+and other people saying the second one which is
+
+103
+00:09:16,390 --> 00:09:20,890
+the correct مين
+
+104
+00:09:20,890 --> 00:09:26,070
+الصح فيهم؟ zero percent or twenty five percent? so
+
+105
+00:09:26,070 --> 00:09:29,130
+some people saying zero percent others twenty five
+
+106
+00:09:29,130 --> 00:09:32,150
+percent okay تلتين صح yes
+
+107
+00:09:42,740 --> 00:09:47,160
+Okay this is right so in the first time we
+
+108
+00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,000
+consider all of the investment in just only one
+
+109
+00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:55,120
+period so we starting here and we ending here so
+
+110
+00:09:55,120 --> 00:10:01,100
+the average or the rate of return is one hundred
+
+111
+00:10:01,100 --> 00:10:05,600
+minus one hundred So it is zero. This is the first
+
+112
+00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:09,300
+assumption. The second one is breaking down the
+
+113
+00:10:09,300 --> 00:10:14,960
+investment into periods يعني الفكرة الثانية أننا
+
+114
+00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:23,010
+قسمنا الاستثمار لـ periods نبدأ هنا وننتهي هنا ثم
+
+115
+00:10:23,010 --> 00:10:29,730
+نبدأ هنا وننتهي هنا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+116
+00:10:29,730 --> 00:10:30,490
+فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+117
+00:10:30,490 --> 00:10:33,330
+فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+118
+00:10:33,330 --> 00:10:33,390
+فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+119
+00:10:45,330 --> 00:10:49,690
+مين الصح فيهم as I said both of the calculations
+
+120
+00:10:49,690 --> 00:10:55,370
+are correct okay which is the arithmetic and which
+
+121
+00:10:55,370 --> 00:11:00,110
+is the geometric the one with zero is the
+
+122
+00:11:00,110 --> 00:11:04,910
+geometric الأولى with zero is geometric and the
+
+123
+00:11:04,910 --> 00:11:09,290
+one with the average is arithmetic الأولى اللي
+
+124
+00:11:09,290 --> 00:11:13,260
+إحنا استخدمناه هي الـ geometric we average all of
+
+125
+00:11:13,260 --> 00:11:16,580
+the periods and considering them as a one period
+
+126
+00:11:16,580 --> 00:11:23,320
+this is a geometric and in the reading list ال
+
+127
+00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:27,780
+reading اللي أعطيتكم إياها قبل يومين it gives you
+
+128
+00:11:27,780 --> 00:11:30,060
+more explanation about the difference between
+
+129
+00:11:30,060 --> 00:11:36,540
+geometric and arithmetic في خمس صفحات أعطيتكم إياهم 
+
+130
+00:11:36,540 --> 00:11:40,600
+وموجودين المفروضين في المكتبة صح؟ فالمفروض البنات
+
+131
+00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:41,040
+ياخدوهم
+
+132
+00:11:43,990 --> 00:11:47,690
+أنا حكيت في أربع صفحات خمس صفحات أعطيتهم للبنات
+
+133
+00:11:47,690 --> 00:11:52,090
+يوم التلاتين هدول بيوضحوا ال arithmetic و ال
+
+134
+00:11:52,090 --> 00:11:56,290
+geometric فتاخدهم من المكتبة هم موجودين okay تركتهم
+
+135
+00:11:56,290 --> 00:12:02,730
+في المكتبة صح؟ اه okay إذا the one the geometric
+
+136
+00:12:02,730 --> 00:12:09,790
+the geometric is equal zero and the arithmetic is 
+
+137
+00:12:09,790 --> 00:12:13,450
+equal twenty five percent انتبهوا، generally
+
+138
+00:12:13,450 --> 00:12:19,510
+speaking the result of arithmetic is greater than
+
+139
+00:12:19,510 --> 00:12:25,110
+the result of geometric في كل الحالات يا .. في كل
+
+140
+00:12:25,110 --> 00:12:29,410
+الحالات لما نحسب ال arithmetic، pay attention here
+
+141
+00:12:29,410 --> 00:12:34,270
+in all cases when we calculate the arithmetic and
+
+142
+00:12:34,270 --> 00:12:38,570
+when we calculate the geometric, arithmetic is 
+
+143
+00:12:38,570 --> 00:12:42,210
+greater than geometric الجواب تبع ال arithmetic
+
+144
+00:12:42,210 --> 00:12:45,730
+بيكون أعلى من الجواب تبع ال geometric انتبهوا يعني
+
+145
+00:12:45,730 --> 00:12:50,170
+هذا ممكن يكون في أسئلة عليه ال question is why
+
+146
+00:12:50,170 --> 00:12:52,630
+there is a difference between geometric and
+
+147
+00:12:52,630 --> 00:12:56,970
+arithmetic؟ ليش في فرق بين ال geometric زي ما احنا
+
+148
+00:12:56,970 --> 00:13:04,290
+شوفنا في 0% أو في 25%؟ خلينا احنا نشرح ال
+
+149
+00:13:04,290 --> 00:13:07,770
+geometric وبعدين نرجع to answer this question why
+
+150
+00:13:07,770 --> 00:13:12,210
+there is a difference between geometric and
+
+151
+00:13:12,210 --> 00:13:17,230
+arithmetic write down this question and just
+
+152
+00:13:17,230 --> 00:13:19,990
+remind me to answer this question at the end of
+
+153
+00:13:19,990 --> 00:13:24,750
+this class يعني بس ذكروني ان احنا نجاوبكم السؤال
+
+154
+00:13:24,750 --> 00:13:31,410
+هذا في نهاية ال class okay now نحن نعرف كيف نتخيل
+
+155
+00:13:31,410 --> 00:13:35,370
+الارثماتيك نحن نعرف كيف نتخيل الارثماتيك فقط
+
+156
+00:13:35,370 --> 00:13:45,170
+لأذكركم الارثماتيك هو اكتشاف R مقال M هذا هو
+
+157
+00:13:45,170 --> 00:13:50,650
+الارثماتيك وأعطيكم مثلًا كيف نتخيل الارثماتيك الآن
+
+158
+00:13:50,650 --> 00:13:56,730
+كيف نتخيل الجيومتريك أولًا to calculate the
+
+159
+00:13:56,730 --> 00:14:00,110
+geometrics we have to calculate the terminal
+
+160
+00:14:00,110 --> 00:14:04,170
+values terminal values what is terminal values
+
+161
+00:14:04,170 --> 00:14:08,830
+means terminal values means terminal values لنحسب
+
+162
+00:14:08,830 --> 00:14:14,430
+ال terminal values يعني اللي هو العوائد للفترة
+
+163
+00:14:14,430 --> 00:14:20,910
+كلها مع بعض so احنا كنا نسوي بال .. بال .. ب
+
+164
+00:14:20,910 --> 00:14:25,310
+summation of R كنا ايش نسوي لو كان عندي عدة فترات
+
+165
+00:14:26,550 --> 00:14:30,910
+نجمعهم ونقسمهم أقصى فانسوا نشوف اللي هو إذا كان
+
+166
+00:14:30,910 --> 00:14:38,370
+عندي R1 plus R2 plus R3 okay till Rn divided by N
+
+167
+00:14:38,370 --> 00:14:43,610
+so this is still the arithmetic but in the
+
+168
+00:14:43,610 --> 00:14:46,970
+geometric the first thing we have to calculate the
+
+169
+00:14:46,970 --> 00:14:47,770
+terminal value
+
+170
+00:14:50,630 --> 00:14:54,950
+instead of summation of R because we consider this
+
+171
+00:14:54,950 --> 00:15:00,190
+as a one period بنحسبها كلها as a one period so we
+
+172
+00:15:00,190 --> 00:15:04,010
+don't need to multiply بنمش ان احنا نعمل multiply
+
+173
+00:15:04,010 --> 00:15:12,350
+so what is what we can do then one R one times one
+
+174
+00:15:12,350 --> 00:15:21,680
+R two divided by one sorry times one R three one R four
+
+175
+00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:25,520
+1R
+
+176
+00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:29,420
+M ثم
+
+177
+00:15:29,420 --> 00:15:41,060
+بعد ان نفعل هذا نحصل على النتائج نضربهم
+
+178
+00:15:41,060 --> 00:15:45,000
+نضربهم
+
+179
+00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:49,400
+بس نجمعهم واحد زائد بنضربهم في بعض وبعدين اللي
+
+180
+00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:53,080
+بنيجي بنقول ال terminal value كل ال terminal value
+
+181
+00:15:53,080 --> 00:16:02,880
+هذه one على n minus one هناخد مثال هذا
+
+182
+00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:09,520
+مهم اكتبيه اكتبيه طيب ناخد المثال فاكتبوا المثال
+
+183
+00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,980
+اللي أعطيتكم إياه على ال arithmetic اعطونيه عشان نحله
+
+184
+00:16:12,980 --> 00:16:14,700
+على ال geometric
+
+185
+00:16:20,540 --> 00:16:31,580
+الأولى 9% 10 12 8 5 5 okay
+
+186
+00:16:31,580 --> 00:16:35,420
+طيب
+
+187
+00:16:35,420 --> 00:16:41,260
+هلا نحسبها بال geometric نحسبها
+
+188
+00:16:41,260 --> 00:16:46,240
+بالأش بال geometric just multiply this just apply
+
+189
+00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:50,400
+this equation بس يعني نطبق ال equation very simple
+
+190
+00:16:50,400 --> 00:17:08,660
+يعني 1.09 x 1.10 x 1.12 x 1.8 x 1.5 خلصولي يا هادي
+
+191
+00:17:08,660 --> 00:17:12,760
+بنات بدي الكل يكون معايا على الحسبة please رجاء كلكوا
+
+192
+00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:13,880
+يكونوا معاكم على الحسبة
+
+193
+00:17:20,020 --> 00:17:25,240
+نشوف طب ماشي نشوف طلعولي
+
+194
+00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:31,360
+جواب يا بنات خمسة point متأكد؟ غلط أنا متأكد so
+
+195
+00:17:31,360 --> 00:17:36,260
+it's one point five طيب one point five ايش القانون
+
+196
+00:17:36,260 --> 00:17:43,380
+بيحكي؟ one point five بنحط the power of واحد على n
+
+197
+00:17:43,380 --> 00:17:49,010
+ال n قداش واحد اثنين ثلاثة أربعة خمسة ناقص واحد عشان
+
+198
+00:17:49,010 --> 00:17:52,350
+نجيب one point five بقى هو واحد على خمسة كيف
+
+199
+00:17:52,350 --> 00:17:58,490
+نعملها تساوي جزر الخامس ل one point five minus
+
+200
+00:17:58,490 --> 00:18:04,610
+one يعني ممكن إذا حد مش عارف ممكن يجيب كم بيطلع
+
+201
+00:18:04,610 --> 00:18:09,310
+ناقص واحد تمانية بالمائة تمانية بالمائة تمانية
+
+202
+00:18:09,310 --> 00:18:13,650
+بالمائة اكيد اه طب فاكرين انتم الجواب تبع الألف
+
+203
+00:18:13,650 --> 00:18:14,290
+متى كام طلع
+
+204
+00:18:23,650 --> 00:18:27,410
+طيب لأ لأ لأ خلّيني أقول حتة حتة، كم بالظبط طلع ال
+
+205
+00:18:27,410 --> 00:18:33,830
+arithmetic؟ عدول ال arithmetic، بسرعة بالظبط،
+
+206
+00:18:33,830 --> 00:18:38,510
+طيب انتبهوا هال arithmetic عندما نعطيه رمز A، طلع
+
+207
+00:18:38,510 --> 00:18:41,230
+ثمانية point ثمانية، و ال geometric عندما نعطيه
+
+208
+00:18:41,230 --> 00:18:47,490
+رمز G، بيطلع ثمانية point سبعة، ايش بتلاحظوا؟
+
+209
+00:18:51,370 --> 00:18:54,410
+مش بتلاحظوا البنات التانية الورق؟ ايش رأيكم؟ اللي
+
+210
+00:18:54,410 --> 00:19:02,290
+قدام سعادة؟ اه وردة، مظبوط؟ اه ايش رأيك؟ ليش ..
+
+211
+00:19:02,290 --> 00:19:10,730
+ايش بتلاحظي فيه جواب A و B؟ مفيش اختلاف في كتير،
+
+212
+00:19:10,730 --> 00:19:19,160
+بتعرفي ليش؟ مين بيقدر يجاوبني؟ هذه ملاحظة .. ملاحظة
+
+213
+00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:23,920
+تانية .. which is greater than .. ال arithmetic is
+
+214
+00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,760
+greater than .. طب إذا في الامتحان طالع عندك ال
+
+215
+00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:30,840
+geometric is greater than arithmetic .. معناتها كلها
+
+216
+00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:35,080
+بدون ما أطلع بالتصريح .. شغل غلط صح؟ ال arithmetic
+
+217
+00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:40,940
+طيب .. you remember when I ask you .. to ask me
+
+218
+00:19:40,940 --> 00:19:46,230
+why there is a difference .. ليش فيه فرق؟ you know
+
+219
+00:19:46,230 --> 00:19:50,090
+why there is a difference نسبة الخطأ نسبة الخطأ ال
+
+220
+00:19:50,090 --> 00:19:56,290
+error what it means نسبة الخطأ اه فاكرين احنا
+
+221
+00:19:56,290 --> 00:20:01,090
+حكينا المحاضرة الفاترة حكينا عن risk إذا if
+
+222
+00:20:01,090 --> 00:20:06,010
+اتطلعوا على الأرقام خلينا نتطلعوا لحظة على الأرقام
+
+223
+00:20:06,010 --> 00:20:10,390
+شوفوا في الأرقام الأرقام متقاربين يعني لو أجينا
+
+224
+00:20:10,390 --> 00:20:15,100
+أخدنا مثال مثلًا هذا case one أخدنا case two for
+
+225
+00:20:15,100 --> 00:20:20,040
+instance أخدنا twelve percent twenty percent five
+
+226
+00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:24,960
+percent one percent و fifty percent ايش رايكوا
+
+227
+00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:29,140
+بالأرقام هذه؟ فالخطأ عالي كثير أو بيسموها ال risk
+
+228
+00:20:29,140 --> 00:20:35,680
+is great شوي شوي عشان أنا فهمي بسيط كثير هلأ إذا
+
+229
+00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:40,360
+احنا حسبنا ال arithmetic و ال geometric لهذه هلاقي
+
+230
+00:20:40,360 --> 00:20:43,320
+there is a big gap between the arithmetic and
+
+231
+00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:50,190
+geometric what we conclude in this when we face up
+
+232
+00:20:50,190 --> 00:20:54,790
+a stock a particular stock with a higher risk we
+
+233
+00:20:54,790 --> 00:20:57,790
+will find that the arithmetic is far away from the
+
+234
+00:20:57,790 --> 00:21:02,810
+geometric يعني إذا كان عندي سهم كثير مخاطرته عالي
+
+235
+00:21:02,810 --> 00:21:06,040
+هنلاقي ال arithmetic بعيدة عن ال geometric when
+
+236
+00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:10,500
+they .. when they .. a particular stock has a
+
+237
+00:21:10,500 --> 00:21:13,460
+minimum risk it means the arithmetic .. arithmetic
+
+238
+00:21:13,460 --> 00:21:17,100
+become closer and closer to the geometric بتكون
+
+239
+00:21:17,100 --> 00:21:20,420
+قريبة كثير على ال geometric طيب so the difference
+
+240
+00:21:20,420 --> 00:21:25,060
+between them is the risk الفرق بينهم هو ال risk
+
+241
+00:21:25,060 --> 00:21:29,920
+okay أعطيني ال .. ال .. ال .. أنا أعطيتكم إياها
+
+242
+00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,880
+المرة الفاتت الشرط طبعًا عنكم مصور
+
+243
+00:21:36,270 --> 00:21:41,090
+ال chapter تبعكم موجود المصور؟ أعطيني ال chapter
+
+244
+00:21:41,090 --> 00:21:48,270
+ال chapter okay عشان تتابعوا معايا انتم في صفحة
+
+245
+00:21:48,270 --> 00:21:59,630
+في صفحة 132 التقصير تبعه okay تفضلي يا عمال okay
+
+246
+00:21:59,630 --> 00:22:04,470
+هلا طب إذا the difference between this and this
+
+247
+00:22:04,470 --> 00:22:11,180
+انت تبقى أنا الفرق بين ال arithmetic و ال geometric
+
+248
+00:22:11,180 --> 00:22:18,800
+هو ال risk خلينا نعمل لكم اختبار بسيط عشان نتأكد ان
+
+249
+00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:23,580
+انتم in our standard
+
+250
+00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:36,940
+حكينا إذا ال geometric زي ما هو موجودة في الصفحة
+
+251
+00:22:36,940 --> 00:22:41,760
+132
+
+252
+00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:49,260
+الـ geometric بتساوي الـ arithmetic minus اللي هو الـ 
+
+253
+00:22:49,260 --> 00:22:53,100
+risk صح؟ how we can calculate the risk؟
+
+254
+00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:01,020
+لأ خلينا احنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا
+
+255
+00:23:01,020 --> 00:23:02,160
+أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا
+
+256
+00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:02,880
+أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا
+
+257
+00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,320
+أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا
+
+258
+00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:10,020
+أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا
+
+259
+00:23:10,020 --> 00:23:10,360
+أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا
+
+260
+00:23:10,360 --> 00:23:10,400
+أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا
+
+261
+00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:11,900
+أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا أنا
+
+262
+00:23:11,900 --> 00:23:15,880
+أنا أنا أنا
+
+263
+00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:23,620
+أنا أنا
+
+264
+00:23:23,620 --> 00:23:31,190
+اتبعوا على المثال، المثال بسيط كام
+
+265
+00:23:31,190 --> 00:23:36,930
+الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة؟
+
+266
+00:23:36,930 --> 00:23:42,810
+مين .. نختار مين؟ what is the difference between 
+
+267
+00:23:42,810 --> 00:23:43,590
+five and ten?
+
+268
+00:23:46,630 --> 00:23:52,990
+five .. five إيش الفرق بين .. يعني إيش الفرق بين
+
+269
+00:23:52,990 --> 00:23:58,300
+خمسة ما هو الفرق بين خمسة وعشرة؟خمسة which is
+
+270
+00:23:58,300 --> 00:24:06,100
+wrong سالب خمسة which is also wrong غلط أربعة مين
+
+271
+00:24:06,100 --> 00:24:11,340
+يلا شايفين اللي .. الفرق بين الخمسة و العشرة كام؟
+
+272
+00:24:11,340 --> 00:24:17,680
+ستة طيب أبسطلكوا إياها don't forget we are talking
+
+273
+00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,560
+about investments احنا بنحكي عن إيه؟ لو اتنين
+
+274
+00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:26,280
+شرايكشرايك يعني شركة اتنين مش تركيين مع بعض في
+
+275
+00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:32,780
+شركة partners partners مقصود فيها متزوجين يعني بس
+
+276
+00:24:32,780 --> 00:24:38,280
+اتنين مش تركيين في شركة و a half half يعني نص من
+
+277
+00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:44,820
+نص و ليكن مثلا الزوج و الزوجة مش تركيين okay إجا
+
+278
+00:24:44,820 --> 00:24:52,740
+اتفقوا مع بعضال profits نسيبه هان ال profits
+
+279
+00:24:52,740 --> 00:24:56,860
+عملوها عشرين دولار عشرين ألف دولار جداش المفروض
+
+280
+00:24:56,860 --> 00:25:03,740
+عشرة عشرة عشرة عشرة عشرة صح طيب إجى الرجل جال
+
+281
+00:25:03,740 --> 00:25:06,820
+للزوجة أنا عندي عباء كتير و كذا و إشي و خليني أنا
+
+282
+00:25:06,820 --> 00:25:11,760
+أخد منك ألف دولار قالت له okay ده إنه أنت عندك
+
+283
+00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:18,400
+عباء كتير فصار تسعة أحد عشر صار أحد عشر تسعةwhat
+
+284
+00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,920
+is the difference between them؟ كده الفرق بينهم؟
+
+285
+00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:31,140
+اتنين غلط شايفين كيف؟ لينا مش عارفة مش مبسوط الف
+
+286
+00:25:31,140 --> 00:25:39,640
+how you calculate this؟ كيف حسبتيها؟
+
+287
+00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:44,540
+الفرق بينهم الف طب ليش انتوا لما اجيتوا حكيتوا
+
+288
+00:25:44,540 --> 00:25:49,730
+الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة قلتوا خمسة؟الفرق بين
+
+289
+00:25:49,730 --> 00:25:53,490
+الخمسة والعشرة مش خمسة الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة هي
+
+290
+00:25:53,490 --> 00:25:59,570
+اتنين و نص طيب
+
+291
+00:25:59,570 --> 00:26:05,490
+خلّينا .. خلّينا نرجع للمثال .. خلّينا نرجع للمثال
+
+292
+00:26:05,490 --> 00:26:14,270
+عشان تفهم المعادلة هجيت من أن أعدل في المعادلة فهم
+
+293
+00:26:14,270 --> 00:26:18,640
+المثال هذا؟التنين اتفقوا خمسين في المية خمسين في
+
+294
+00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,860
+المية عشرة دولار عشرة تلاف عشرة تلاف صح؟ إيجي ..
+
+295
+00:26:21,860 --> 00:26:25,320
+إيجي الزوج حاكي للزوجة أنا بتعرفي كيف أولاد و كذا
+
+296
+00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,960
+و أنا اللي بصرف و إشي يلا تقولوا okay بعطيك ألف
+
+297
+00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:33,960
+دولار مني فراحت أخدت ألف دولار منها وعطتها لزوجها
+
+298
+00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,780
+صار هو معاه أحد عاش و هي معاه تسعة what is the
+
+299
+00:26:37,780 --> 00:26:40,600
+difference between them two thousands مش two
+
+300
+00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,880
+thousands الفرق بين أتهم ألفين لأ الفرق بين أتهم
+
+301
+00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:49,920
+ألفالفرق بينهم الف يعني if the husband give the
+
+302
+00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,480
+one thousand back to his wife إذا رجع الألف دولار
+
+303
+00:26:53,480 --> 00:27:00,320
+لزوجته بيصيروا عشرة عشرة صح ولا لأ؟ okay طيب
+
+304
+00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:08,410
+ابتدوا هنا ابتدوا هنا هلأ هاي خمسة وهي عشرةعشان
+
+305
+00:27:08,410 --> 00:27:12,110
+انا اقدر احسب الفرق بين ال .. ال geometric و بين
+
+306
+00:27:12,110 --> 00:27:15,590
+ال .. the same .. the same thing، نفس الفكرة، هاي
+
+307
+00:27:15,590 --> 00:27:18,510
+خمسة و أنا عشرة، الفرق بيبقى تقولها اتنين و نص،
+
+308
+00:27:18,510 --> 00:27:21,430
+صح؟ طيب، لو أعطينا الخمسة و قولنا لها يا خمسة خدّي
+
+309
+00:27:21,430 --> 00:27:25,330
+هاي اتنين و نص، فكم هتصير؟ طب اتنين و نص جيبناهم
+
+310
+00:27:25,330 --> 00:27:29,050
+من وين؟ من العشرة، اذا العشرة قولنا لها ناقص اتنين
+
+311
+00:27:29,050 --> 00:27:36,890
+و نص، هتصير سبعة و نصمظبوط ولا لأ؟ طيب خلينا نهنا
+
+312
+00:27:36,890 --> 00:27:41,590
+اللي جاوبت خمسة او مين اللي جاوب خمسة؟ لو احنا
+
+313
+00:27:41,590 --> 00:27:46,950
+جاوبنا خمسة قلنا الخمسة قابلنا من الخمسة فصارت
+
+314
+00:27:46,950 --> 00:27:51,470
+خمسة زي الخمسة عشرة اذا هذه صارت سفر وهذه صارت
+
+315
+00:27:51,470 --> 00:27:56,570
+عشرة كيف صاروا متساوين عاد؟ طيب
+
+316
+00:28:03,570 --> 00:28:09,350
+So again إذا الـ geometric انتبهوا للمعادلة أنا ليش
+
+317
+00:28:09,350 --> 00:28:12,570
+أعطلكوا الكلام هذا انتبهوا للمعادلة الـ geometric
+
+318
+00:28:12,570 --> 00:28:16,550
+بتساوي arithmetic minus sigma تربيع which is wrong
+
+319
+00:28:16,550 --> 00:28:25,450
+المفروض تكون half of sigma تربيع البنات
+
+320
+00:28:25,450 --> 00:28:28,370
+الكلام هذا اللي بنوا عليه بنوا عليه الكلام هذا
+
+321
+00:28:28,370 --> 00:28:33,380
+عملوا Nobel Prize عملوا إيش؟نوبل برايس عملوا جائزة
+
+322
+00:28:33,380 --> 00:28:38,840
+نوبل اللي بيشتغلوا في المواضيع هذه اللي هو
+
+323
+00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:49,460
+ماركويتس و ويليام شارب إذا
+
+324
+00:28:49,460 --> 00:28:55,860
+الفرق بين الـ geometric geometric is equal to
+
+325
+00:28:55,860 --> 00:28:59,820
+arithmetic minus half of sigma two أو sigma تربيع
+
+326
+00:29:01,580 --> 00:29:07,120
+إذا نعرفنا why it is half، نعرفنا ليش half، نصها،
+
+327
+00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,180
+لأن زي ما حكينا الآن الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة مش
+
+328
+00:29:11,180 --> 00:29:14,430
+زي ما احنا بنعرف أنه خمسةلأن إحنا في الـ
+
+329
+00:29:14,430 --> 00:29:17,770
+investments زي ما شوفنا بين الزوج والزوجة when
+
+330
+00:29:17,770 --> 00:29:21,550
+they invest in the company it doesn't mean .. when
+
+331
+00:29:21,550 --> 00:29:24,950
+the wife give her husband one thousand dollar it
+
+332
+00:29:24,950 --> 00:29:27,310
+doesn't mean that the difference is two thousands
+
+333
+00:29:27,310 --> 00:29:31,230
+the difference is one thousand if the husband give
+
+334
+00:29:31,230 --> 00:29:34,990
+back one thousand to his wife it means they have
+
+335
+00:29:34,990 --> 00:29:38,250
+one thousand for each يعني الابتنين هيكون عندهم
+
+336
+00:29:38,250 --> 00:29:44,660
+ten thousands مظبوط ولا لأ؟ إيش طبيعي؟يعني إذا ..
+
+337
+00:29:44,660 --> 00:29:52,020
+إذا أعطته أربعة ألف دولار،
+
+338
+00:29:52,020 --> 00:29:56,900
+جداش الفرق بينهم حصيل؟ أعطته أربعة ألف دولار، حصيل
+
+339
+00:29:56,900 --> 00:30:01,060
+هان كام؟ أربعة عشر ألف، و هان كام؟ ستة آف، الفرق
+
+340
+00:30:01,060 --> 00:30:05,640
+بينهم كام؟أه اربعة طول عشان نقل ستة كام تمانية اذا
+
+341
+00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:09,500
+هالفرق بين اتنين تمانية ع اتنين اذا الفرق اربعة
+
+342
+00:30:09,500 --> 00:30:13,140
+تلاف دولار لاربعة تلاف دولار لو احنا رجعنا الأربعة
+
+343
+00:30:13,140 --> 00:30:18,840
+هيصيروا عشرة عشرة okay فهذا القانون
+
+344
+00:30:29,230 --> 00:30:32,030
+So you understand what it means geometric and
+
+345
+00:30:32,030 --> 00:30:41,970
+arithmetic كيف؟ بطعة sigma تربيع مص sigma تربيع في
+
+346
+00:30:41,970 --> 00:30:46,170
+الامتحان او في الحياة ايش هنسويلك هنعطيك الـ
+
+347
+00:30:46,170 --> 00:30:49,530
+arithmetic هنعطيك الـ sigma تربيع هنقولك calculate
+
+348
+00:30:49,530 --> 00:30:56,780
+the geometric موجود عندكم بالبال .. بال reading
+
+349
+00:30:56,780 --> 00:30:58,960
+list اللي أنا أعطيتكوا إياها موجود عندكم مثال
+
+350
+00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:05,680
+بتحلو طبعا okay إذا الفرق بين الـ geometric و الـ ..
+
+351
+00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:10,540
+و الـ arithmetic هو فرق بال .. بال إيش؟ بال risk و
+
+352
+00:31:10,540 --> 00:31:17,140
+أي risk مش ال risk كله نص ال risk okay half of the
+
+353
+00:31:17,140 --> 00:31:19,440
+risk okay
+
+354
+00:31:23,820 --> 00:31:29,180
+هذا حساب العائد طبعا قالوا اذا قلنا اذا قلنا اتنين
+
+355
+00:31:29,180 --> 00:31:33,380
+صح الـ arithmetic لكن الـ arithmetic is more common
+
+356
+00:31:33,380 --> 00:31:38,320
+than any other than any other calculations يعني
+
+357
+00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,800
+أكثر شيء هو الـ arithmetic من other calculations
+
+358
+00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:45,540
+okay طيب
+
+359
+00:31:45,540 --> 00:31:50,800
+هاي طبعا أخدتواها المعادلة شرحنا لكواياها why is
+
+360
+00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:51,140
+it geometric
+
+361
+00:31:58,210 --> 00:32:01,990
+بنا نحسب الـ sigma تربيع أخدناها أظن الـ sigma تربيع
+
+362
+00:32:01,990 --> 00:32:06,510
+كيف نحسبها اللي هو عندنا الـ R minus R bar تربيع
+
+363
+00:32:06,510 --> 00:32:12,610
+على 1 divided by N عشان
+
+364
+00:32:12,610 --> 00:32:18,630
+نعمل نشيل الـ bias طبعا نجيب الجزر على 1 N minus 1
+
+365
+00:32:18,630 --> 00:32:22,090
+نجيب عند sharp ratio 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..34e65000569d76d6b42b6b48c1b5781892e67eac
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1460 @@
+1
+00:00:20,670 --> 00:00:24,930
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة الأولى اتخذنا كيف
+
+2
+00:00:24,930 --> 00:00:30,790
+نحسب ال variance و ال standard deviation القانون و
+
+3
+00:00:30,790 --> 00:00:33,630
+طلبنا منكم انه في ال .. في البيت تحاولوا تعيدوا
+
+4
+00:00:33,630 --> 00:00:40,910
+للحل فى حد عاد الحل و طلع عنده إجابات غلط يا بات
+
+5
+00:00:40,910 --> 00:00:44,970
+فى حد رجع البيت و عاد الحل و طلع عنده مش نفس
+
+6
+00:00:44,970 --> 00:00:49,130
+الإجابة اللى موجودة هنا لأنه فى الامتحان هجيكم
+
+7
+00:00:49,130 --> 00:00:57,060
+مثال مشابه لهOkay اليوم هنحكي في موضوع مهم ال how
+
+8
+00:00:57,060 --> 00:01:02,900
+we can calculate the rate of return كيف ممكن نحسب
+
+9
+00:01:02,900 --> 00:01:06,680
+ال rate of return حكينا الطرق السابقة كنا نعتمد
+
+10
+00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:09,640
+على طريقة اسمها ال arithmetic method طريقة الاش
+
+11
+00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:14,360
+arithmetic طريقة ال arithmetic هي طريقة الحسابية
+
+12
+00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:18,660
+بيسموها في طريقة أخرى بيسموها geometric method
+
+13
+00:01:19,290 --> 00:01:22,770
+geometric methods اللي هو الطريقة الهندسية okay
+
+14
+00:01:22,770 --> 00:01:26,790
+إذا إحنا في أمام two different methods in
+
+15
+00:01:26,790 --> 00:01:30,670
+calculating the rate of return يعني في طريقتين في
+
+16
+00:01:30,670 --> 00:01:34,790
+احتساب ال rate of return طريقة ال arithmetic
+
+17
+00:01:34,790 --> 00:01:41,710
+وطريقة ال geometric okay طريقة ال arithmetic هي
+
+18
+00:01:41,710 --> 00:01:47,420
+طريقةيعني أغلب الناس بيستخدموها لو إحنا أعطينا
+
+19
+00:01:47,420 --> 00:01:53,180
+مثال for instance أخدنا
+
+20
+00:01:53,180 --> 00:02:02,340
+مثال بقولنا calculate the average rate of return
+
+21
+00:02:02,340 --> 00:02:11,120
+في
+
+22
+00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:17,790
+ال past yearكان 9% في ال second year 10% في ال
+
+23
+00:02:17,790 --> 00:02:30,330
+third year 12% 8% and 5% احنا اجتنح البيانات هذه و
+
+24
+00:02:30,330 --> 00:02:33,710
+بنحسب ال average rate of 10 مين بعرف يحسب ال
+
+25
+00:02:33,710 --> 00:02:38,950
+average rate of 10 متوسط متوسط العائد مجموعة مع
+
+26
+00:02:38,950 --> 00:02:48,400
+العددهم يعني بنقول مثلا5% بيقول 9 plus 10 plus 12
+
+27
+00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:57,340
+plus 8 plus 5 على 1,2,3,4,5 كام
+
+28
+00:02:57,340 --> 00:03:00,460
+بيطلع؟ هاي الألات الحاسبة معاكم أربعة و أربعين و
+
+29
+00:03:00,460 --> 00:03:03,960
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+30
+00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:04,620
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+31
+00:03:04,620 --> 00:03:05,020
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+32
+00:03:05,020 --> 00:03:06,880
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+33
+00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:07,460
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+34
+00:03:07,460 --> 00:03:09,040
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+35
+00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:10,980
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أرب
+
+36
+00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:22,220
+8.8 8.8 طيب 8.8 طيب ايش احنا سوينا عمليا احنا we
+
+37
+00:03:22,220 --> 00:03:25,180
+use the arithmetic method استخدمنا ال arithmetic
+
+38
+00:03:25,180 --> 00:03:30,440
+method طريقة الحسابية قلنا اللي the summation of R
+
+39
+00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:36,180
+divided by N okay
+
+40
+00:03:36,180 --> 00:03:41,190
+يعني جمعنا ال R و قسمناها على Nهذه الطريقة اللي
+
+41
+00:03:41,190 --> 00:03:46,610
+احنا استخدمناها في ال .. طيب في طريقة تانية ممكن
+
+42
+00:03:46,610 --> 00:03:50,690
+احنا نستخدمها؟ طريقة الهندسية، طريقة الهندسية، في
+
+43
+00:03:50,690 --> 00:03:58,330
+حد سمعت عن الطريقة الهندسية؟ كيف؟ طريقة الهندسية
+
+44
+00:03:58,330 --> 00:04:02,910
+يعني مشابهة للمتتاريات طيب خلينا عشان نفهم الطريقة
+
+45
+00:04:02,910 --> 00:04:09,620
+الهندسية ناخد بفعل بسيططبعا حطوا فى رأسكم ان هذه
+
+46
+00:04:09,620 --> 00:04:12,140
+this is arithmetic method هى طريقة ال arithmetic
+
+47
+00:04:12,140 --> 00:04:19,560
+الحسابية let's consider this هو هذا هذا هو نفسه
+
+48
+00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:25,420
+هذا هو نفسه هذا بس انه احنا ال R of state divided
+
+49
+00:04:25,420 --> 00:04:31,160
+by N يعني هذه المجموعة تعرفى محاسبيا او رياضيا
+
+50
+00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:38,740
+اللى هو واحد على N مجموعة R هذه نفسهابياضيان نفس
+
+51
+00:04:38,740 --> 00:04:47,040
+الحاجة يعني يا بنات x على n is equal 1 على n times
+
+52
+00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:55,080
+x معروف بياضيان هذا خلينا
+
+53
+00:04:55,080 --> 00:05:03,640
+ناخد مثال عشان نشوف how we calculate return in
+
+54
+00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:04,280
+different ways
+
+55
+00:05:10,010 --> 00:05:15,730
+خلينا هان بالجانب هنا لو one of the investors
+
+56
+00:05:15,730 --> 00:05:19,090
+invest his money starting by one hundred dollar
+
+57
+00:05:19,090 --> 00:05:22,890
+يعني واحد من المستثمرين بدأ بمية دولار يعني
+
+58
+00:05:22,890 --> 00:05:28,970
+starting the money by one hundred dollar okay and
+
+59
+00:05:28,970 --> 00:05:32,830
+in the first year he lost fifty dollar and at the
+
+60
+00:05:32,830 --> 00:05:36,970
+end he make one hundred dollar هيبس السنة الأولى
+
+61
+00:05:36,970 --> 00:05:41,190
+صارت ثروة تبعت وخمسين دولاربنهاية السنة التانية
+
+62
+00:05:41,190 --> 00:05:44,530
+صارت الفروة تبعت مية دولار he started by one
+
+63
+00:05:44,530 --> 00:05:47,870
+hundred and then he end by one hundred what is the
+
+64
+00:05:47,870 --> 00:05:53,470
+return؟ كدهش العائد؟ يعني هو بدأ بمية و خلص بمية،
+
+65
+00:05:53,470 --> 00:06:00,750
+كدهش استفاد من هالشغل؟ خمسين خمسين؟ هو بدأ يعني في
+
+66
+00:06:00,750 --> 00:06:03,990
+.. بدأ معاه مية دولار و انتهى بمية دولار، اش ولا
+
+67
+00:06:03,990 --> 00:06:08,490
+اش؟ اش ولا اش يعني what it means ولا اش؟ zeroso
+
+68
+00:06:08,490 --> 00:06:14,430
+zero because P1 minus P naught على P naught لأن P1
+
+69
+00:06:14,430 --> 00:06:21,470
+هي ال ending price فمية minus مية على مية so it's
+
+70
+00:06:21,470 --> 00:06:25,130
+equal to zero طيب
+
+71
+00:06:25,130 --> 00:06:29,530
+احنا عاملين ايش سوينا we consider the investment
+
+72
+00:06:29,530 --> 00:06:33,750
+as a one period time يعني اعتبرنا ال investment كل
+
+73
+00:06:33,750 --> 00:06:35,610
+فترة زمنية واحدة okay
+
+74
+00:06:37,850 --> 00:06:41,310
+now there is other options to calculate return
+
+75
+00:06:41,310 --> 00:06:44,590
+ممكن حد يفكر بطريقة تانية كيف ممكن نحسب ال return
+
+76
+00:06:44,590 --> 00:06:56,870
+يعني احنا حكينا zero which is okay نفسني ممكن يعني
+
+77
+00:06:56,870 --> 00:07:03,930
+خسر خمسين مظبوط و بعدين بدأ بخمسين كسب كم؟ خمسين
+
+78
+00:07:03,930 --> 00:07:09,440
+طيب طب خمسين ماخص خمسين صفر صح؟طيب خلينا ن .. ن ..
+
+79
+00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:16,020
+ندورلكم بيها شوية هلأ احنا هخسر خمسين صح؟ طيب لو
+
+80
+00:07:16,020 --> 00:07:21,360
+جينا احنا قولنا minus fifty divided by one hundred
+
+81
+00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:26,500
+مظبوط لأن هو خسر خمسين على المية اللي هو البدأ
+
+82
+00:07:26,500 --> 00:07:32,720
+الاستثمار okay في الفترة الأولى كام خسر؟ minus
+
+83
+00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:38,870
+fifty percentطيب بالفترة التانية ربح fifty لكن بدل
+
+84
+00:07:38,870 --> 00:07:42,970
+السثوار بكام fifty إذا انجداش عمل one hundred
+
+85
+00:07:42,970 --> 00:07:48,870
+percent so if you do the average إذا احنا بحسب ال
+
+86
+00:07:48,870 --> 00:07:53,510
+average minus fifty plus one hundred divided by
+
+87
+00:07:53,510 --> 00:07:59,350
+two so it's equal twenty five percent سبحان
+
+88
+00:07:59,350 --> 00:08:04,590
+الله اه
+
+89
+00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:14,220
+Okay شوفوا كيف
+
+90
+00:08:14,220 --> 00:08:23,820
+سفر؟ minus fifty plus one hundred طيب guess ميهم
+
+91
+00:08:23,820 --> 00:08:27,520
+twenty
+
+92
+00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,800
+five percent طيب what is the difference between
+
+93
+00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:35,270
+the first one which is zeroand the second one
+
+94
+00:08:35,270 --> 00:08:39,170
+which is twenty five percent ايش الفرق بين الأولى
+
+95
+00:08:39,170 --> 00:08:45,070
+zero and twenty five percent يعني ايش الفرق بين
+
+96
+00:08:45,070 --> 00:08:51,330
+الأولى و التانية اه اه
+
+97
+00:08:51,330 --> 00:08:54,750
+what is the difference between the first one which
+
+98
+00:08:54,750 --> 00:08:58,950
+make zero percent and the second one which make
+
+99
+00:08:58,950 --> 00:09:03,410
+twenty five percent okay my second question is
+
+100
+00:09:03,630 --> 00:09:07,650
+which is correct؟
+
+101
+00:09:07,650 --> 00:09:12,830
+مين الصح فيهم؟ so some people saying the first one
+
+102
+00:09:12,830 --> 00:09:16,390
+and other people saying the second one which is
+
+103
+00:09:16,390 --> 00:09:20,890
+the correct مين
+
+104
+00:09:20,890 --> 00:09:26,070
+الصح فيهم؟ zero percent or twenty five percent? so
+
+105
+00:09:26,070 --> 00:09:29,130
+some people saying zero percent others twenty five
+
+106
+00:09:29,130 --> 00:09:32,150
+percent okay تلتين صح yes
+
+107
+00:09:42,740 --> 00:09:47,160
+Okay this is right so in the first time we
+
+108
+00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,000
+consider all of the investment in just only one
+
+109
+00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:55,120
+period so we starting here and we ending here so
+
+110
+00:09:55,120 --> 00:10:01,100
+the average or the rate of return is one hundred
+
+111
+00:10:01,100 --> 00:10:05,600
+minus one hundredSo it is zero. This is the first
+
+112
+00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:09,300
+assumption. The second one is breaking down the
+
+113
+00:10:09,300 --> 00:10:14,960
+investment into periods يعني الفكرة التانية أننا
+
+114
+00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:23,010
+قسمنا الاستثمار ل periodsنبدأ هنا و ننتهي هنا ثم
+
+115
+00:10:23,010 --> 00:10:29,730
+نبدأ هنا و ننتهي هنا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+116
+00:10:29,730 --> 00:10:30,490
+فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+117
+00:10:30,490 --> 00:10:33,330
+فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+118
+00:10:33,330 --> 00:10:33,390
+فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+119
+00:10:45,330 --> 00:10:49,690
+مين الصح فيهم as I said both of the calculations
+
+120
+00:10:49,690 --> 00:10:55,370
+are correct okay which is the arithmetic and which
+
+121
+00:10:55,370 --> 00:11:00,110
+is the geometric the one with zero is the
+
+122
+00:11:00,110 --> 00:11:04,910
+geometric الأولى with zero is geometric and the
+
+123
+00:11:04,910 --> 00:11:09,290
+one with the average is arithmetic الأولى اللى
+
+124
+00:11:09,290 --> 00:11:13,260
+احنا استخدمناه هي ال geometricwe average all of
+
+125
+00:11:13,260 --> 00:11:16,580
+the periods and considering them as a one period
+
+126
+00:11:16,580 --> 00:11:23,320
+this is a geometric and in the reading list ال
+
+127
+00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:27,780
+reading اللي أعطتكوا إياها قبل يومين it gives you
+
+128
+00:11:27,780 --> 00:11:30,060
+more explanation about the difference between
+
+129
+00:11:30,060 --> 00:11:36,540
+geometric and arithmetic في خمس صفحات أعطتكم إياهم
+
+130
+00:11:36,540 --> 00:11:40,600
+وموجودين المفروضين في المكتبة صح فالمفروض البنات
+
+131
+00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:41,040
+ياخدوهم
+
+132
+00:11:43,990 --> 00:11:47,690
+أنا حكيت في أربع صفحات خمس صفحات أعطيتهم للبنات
+
+133
+00:11:47,690 --> 00:11:52,090
+يوم تلتينين هدول بيوضحوا ال arithmetic و ال
+
+134
+00:11:52,090 --> 00:11:56,290
+geometric فتاخدهم من المكتب هم موجودين okay تركتهم
+
+135
+00:11:56,290 --> 00:12:02,730
+في المكتب صح؟ اه okay اذا the one the geometric
+
+136
+00:12:02,730 --> 00:12:09,790
+the geometric is equal zero and the arithmetic is
+
+137
+00:12:09,790 --> 00:12:13,450
+equal twenty five percentانتبهوا، generally
+
+138
+00:12:13,450 --> 00:12:19,510
+speaking the result of arithmetic is greater than
+
+139
+00:12:19,510 --> 00:12:25,110
+the result of geometric في كل الحلات يا .. في كل
+
+140
+00:12:25,110 --> 00:12:29,410
+الحلات لما نحسب ال arithmetic، pay attention here
+
+141
+00:12:29,410 --> 00:12:34,270
+in all cases when we calculate the arithmetic and
+
+142
+00:12:34,270 --> 00:12:38,570
+when we calculate the geometric, arithmetic is
+
+143
+00:12:38,570 --> 00:12:42,210
+greater than geometricالجواب تبع ال arithmetic
+
+144
+00:12:42,210 --> 00:12:45,730
+بيكون أعلى من الجواب تبع ال geometric انتبهوا يعني
+
+145
+00:12:45,730 --> 00:12:50,170
+هذا ممكن يكون في أسئلة عليه ال question is why
+
+146
+00:12:50,170 --> 00:12:52,630
+there is a difference between geometric and
+
+147
+00:12:52,630 --> 00:12:56,970
+arithmetic؟ ليش في فرق بين ال geometric زي ما احنا
+
+148
+00:12:56,970 --> 00:13:04,290
+شوفنا في 0% او في 25%؟خلّينا احنا نشرح ال
+
+149
+00:13:04,290 --> 00:13:07,770
+geometric و بعدين نرجع to answer this question why
+
+150
+00:13:07,770 --> 00:13:12,210
+there is a difference between geometric and
+
+151
+00:13:12,210 --> 00:13:17,230
+arithmetic write down this question and just
+
+152
+00:13:17,230 --> 00:13:19,990
+remind me to answer this question at the end of
+
+153
+00:13:19,990 --> 00:13:24,750
+this class يعني بس ذكروني ان احنا نجاوبكم السؤال
+
+154
+00:13:24,750 --> 00:13:31,410
+هذا في نهاية ال class okay nowنحن نعرف كيف نتخيل
+
+155
+00:13:31,410 --> 00:13:35,370
+الارثماتيك نحن نعرف كيف نتخيل الارثماتيك فقط
+
+156
+00:13:35,370 --> 00:13:45,170
+لأذكركم الارثماتيك هو اكتشاف R مقال M هذا هو
+
+157
+00:13:45,170 --> 00:13:50,650
+الارثماتيك وأعطيكم مثلًا كيف نتخيل الارثماتيك الآن
+
+158
+00:13:50,650 --> 00:13:56,730
+كيف نتخيل الجيومتريك أولًاto calculate the
+
+159
+00:13:56,730 --> 00:14:00,110
+geometrics we have to calculate the terminal
+
+160
+00:14:00,110 --> 00:14:04,170
+values terminal values what is terminal values
+
+161
+00:14:04,170 --> 00:14:08,830
+means terminal values means terminal values لنحسب
+
+162
+00:14:08,830 --> 00:14:14,430
+ال terminal values يعني اللي هو العواقد للفترة
+
+163
+00:14:14,430 --> 00:14:20,910
+كلها مع بعض so احنا كنا نسوي بال .. بال .. ب
+
+164
+00:14:20,910 --> 00:14:25,310
+summation of R كنا ايش نسوي لو كان عندى عدة فترات
+
+165
+00:14:26,550 --> 00:14:30,910
+نشبعهم و نقسمهم أقصى فانسوا نشوف اللي هو إذا كان
+
+166
+00:14:30,910 --> 00:14:38,370
+عندي R1 plus R2 plus R3 okay till Rn divided by N
+
+167
+00:14:38,370 --> 00:14:43,610
+so this is still the arithmetic but in the
+
+168
+00:14:43,610 --> 00:14:46,970
+geometric the first thing we have to calculate the
+
+169
+00:14:46,970 --> 00:14:47,770
+terminal value
+
+170
+00:14:50,630 --> 00:14:54,950
+instead of summation of R because we consider this
+
+171
+00:14:54,950 --> 00:15:00,190
+as a one period بنحسبها كلها as a one period so we
+
+172
+00:15:00,190 --> 00:15:04,010
+don't need to multiply بنزمش ان احنا نعمل multiply
+
+173
+00:15:04,010 --> 00:15:12,350
+so what is what we can do then one R one times one
+
+174
+00:15:12,350 --> 00:15:21,680
+R two divided by one sorry times one R three oneR4
+
+175
+00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:25,520
+1R
+
+176
+00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:29,420
+M ثم
+
+177
+00:15:29,420 --> 00:15:41,060
+بعد ان نفعل هذا نحصل على النتائج نضربهم
+
+178
+00:15:41,060 --> 00:15:45,000
+نضربهم
+
+179
+00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:49,400
+بس نجمعهم واحد زائدبنضربهم في بعض وبعدين اللي
+
+180
+00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:53,080
+بنيجي بنقول ال terminal value كل ال terminal value
+
+181
+00:15:53,080 --> 00:16:02,880
+هذه one على n minus one هناخد مثال هذا
+
+182
+00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:09,520
+مهم اكتبيه اكتبيه طيب ناخد المثال فاكتبوا المثال
+
+183
+00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,980
+اللي اعطيتوايا على ال arithmetic اعطونيه عشان نحله
+
+184
+00:16:12,980 --> 00:16:14,700
+على ال geometric
+
+185
+00:16:20,540 --> 00:16:31,580
+الأولى 9% 10 12 8 5 5 okay
+
+186
+00:16:31,580 --> 00:16:35,420
+طيب
+
+187
+00:16:35,420 --> 00:16:41,260
+هلا نحسبها بال geometric نحسبها
+
+188
+00:16:41,260 --> 00:16:46,240
+بالاش بال geometric just multiply this just apply
+
+189
+00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:50,400
+this equation بس يعني نطبخ ال equationvery simple
+
+190
+00:16:50,400 --> 00:17:08,660
+يعني 1.09 x 1.10 x 1.12 x 1.8 x 1.5 خلصولي يا هادى
+
+191
+00:17:08,660 --> 00:17:12,760
+بنات بد الكل يكون معايا على حسبة please رجاء كلكوا
+
+192
+00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:13,880
+يكونوا معاكم على حسبة
+
+193
+00:17:20,020 --> 00:17:25,240
+نشوف طب ماشي نشوف طلعولي
+
+194
+00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:31,360
+جواب يا بنات خمسة point متأكد؟ غلط انا متأكد so
+
+195
+00:17:31,360 --> 00:17:36,260
+it's one point five طيب one point five ايش القانون
+
+196
+00:17:36,260 --> 00:17:43,380
+بيحكي؟ one point five بنحط the power of واحد على n
+
+197
+00:17:43,380 --> 00:17:49,010
+ال n قداش واحد اتنى اتلاتة اربعة خمسةنقص واحد عشان
+
+198
+00:17:49,010 --> 00:17:52,350
+نجيب one point five بقى هو واحد على خمسة كيف
+
+199
+00:17:52,350 --> 00:17:58,490
+نعملها تساوي جزر الخامس ل واحد point five minus
+
+200
+00:17:58,490 --> 00:18:04,610
+one يعني ممكن إذا حد مش عارف ممكن يجيب كم بيطلع
+
+201
+00:18:04,610 --> 00:18:09,310
+ناقص واحد تمانية بالمائية تمانية بالمائية تمانية
+
+202
+00:18:09,310 --> 00:18:13,650
+بالمائية اكيد اه طب فاكرين انتوا الجواب تبع الألف
+
+203
+00:18:13,650 --> 00:18:14,290
+متى كام طلع
+
+204
+00:18:23,650 --> 00:18:27,410
+طيب لأ لأ لأ خلّيني أقول حتة حتة، كم بالظبط طلع ال
+
+205
+00:18:27,410 --> 00:18:33,830
+arithmetic؟ عدول ال arithmetic، بسرعة بالظبط،
+
+206
+00:18:33,830 --> 00:18:38,510
+طيب انتبهوا هال arithmetic عندما نعطيه رمز A، طلع
+
+207
+00:18:38,510 --> 00:18:41,230
+تمانية point تمانية، و ال geometric عندما نعطيه
+
+208
+00:18:41,230 --> 00:18:47,490
+رمز G، بطلع تمانية point سبعة، إيش بتلاحظوا؟
+
+209
+00:18:51,370 --> 00:18:54,410
+مش بتلاحظوا البنات التانية الوراق؟ إيش رأيكم؟ اللي
+
+210
+00:18:54,410 --> 00:19:02,290
+قدام سعادة؟ أه وردة، مظبوط؟ أه إيش رأيك؟ ليش ..
+
+211
+00:19:02,290 --> 00:19:10,730
+إيش بتلاحظي فيه جواب A و B؟ مفيش افتلاع في كتير،
+
+212
+00:19:10,730 --> 00:19:19,160
+بتعرف ليش؟ مين بيقدر يجاوبني؟هذه ملاحظة .. ملاحظة
+
+213
+00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:23,920
+تانية .. which is greater than .. ال arithmetic is
+
+214
+00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,760
+greater than .. طب إذا في الامتحان طالع عندك ال
+
+215
+00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:30,840
+geometric is greater than arithmetic ..معناة كلها
+
+216
+00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:35,080
+بدون ما أطلع بالتصريح ..شغل غلط صح؟ ال arithmetic
+
+217
+00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:40,940
+طيب .. you remember when I ask you .. to ask me
+
+218
+00:19:40,940 --> 00:19:46,230
+why there is a difference .. ليش فيه فرق؟you know
+
+219
+00:19:46,230 --> 00:19:50,090
+why there is a difference نسبة الخطأ نسبة الخطأ ال
+
+220
+00:19:50,090 --> 00:19:56,290
+error what it means نسبة الخطأ اه فاكرين احنا
+
+221
+00:19:56,290 --> 00:20:01,090
+حكينا المحاضرة الفاترة حكينا عن risk اذا if
+
+222
+00:20:01,090 --> 00:20:06,010
+اتطلعوا على الأرقام خلينا نتطلعوا لحظة على الأرقام
+
+223
+00:20:06,010 --> 00:20:10,390
+شوفوا في الأرقام الأرقام متقاربين يعني لو أجينا
+
+224
+00:20:10,390 --> 00:20:15,100
+أخدنا مثال مثلا هذا case one أخدنا case twofor
+
+225
+00:20:15,100 --> 00:20:20,040
+instance أخدنا twelve percent twenty percent five
+
+226
+00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:24,960
+percent one percent و fifty percent إيش رايكوا
+
+227
+00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:29,140
+بالأرقام هذه؟ فالخطأ عالي كتير أو بيسموها ال risk
+
+228
+00:20:29,140 --> 00:20:35,680
+is great شوي شوي عشان أنا فهمي بسيط كتير هلأ إذا
+
+229
+00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:40,360
+أحنا عسبنا ال arithmetic و ال geometric لهذه هلاقي
+
+230
+00:20:40,360 --> 00:20:43,320
+there is a big gap between the arithmetic and
+
+231
+00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:50,190
+geometricwhat we conclude in this when we face up
+
+232
+00:20:50,190 --> 00:20:54,790
+a stock a particular stock with a higher risk we
+
+233
+00:20:54,790 --> 00:20:57,790
+will find that the arithmetic is far away from the
+
+234
+00:20:57,790 --> 00:21:02,810
+geometric يعني إذا كان عندى سهم كتير مخاطرته عالى
+
+235
+00:21:02,810 --> 00:21:06,040
+هنلاقي ال arithmetic بعيدة عن ال geometricwhen
+
+236
+00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:10,500
+they .. when they .. a particular stock has a
+
+237
+00:21:10,500 --> 00:21:13,460
+minimum risk it means the arithmetic .. arithmetic
+
+238
+00:21:13,460 --> 00:21:17,100
+become closer and closer to the geometric بتكون
+
+239
+00:21:17,100 --> 00:21:20,420
+جريبة كتير على ال geometric طيب so the difference
+
+240
+00:21:20,420 --> 00:21:25,060
+between them is the risk الفرق بينهم هو ال risk
+
+241
+00:21:25,060 --> 00:21:29,920
+okay اعطيني ال .. ال .. ال .. انا اعطيتكم اياها
+
+242
+00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,880
+المرة الفاتة الشرط طبعا عنكم مصور
+
+243
+00:21:36,270 --> 00:21:41,090
+ال chapter تبعكم موجود المصور؟ اعطيني ال chapter
+
+244
+00:21:41,090 --> 00:21:48,270
+ال chapter okay عشان تتابعوا معايا انتوا في صفحه
+
+245
+00:21:48,270 --> 00:21:59,630
+في صفحه 132 التقصير تبعه okay تفضلي يا عمال okay
+
+246
+00:21:59,630 --> 00:22:04,470
+هلا طب اذا the difference between this and this
+
+247
+00:22:04,470 --> 00:22:11,180
+انت تبقى اناالفرق بين ال arithmetic و ال geometric
+
+248
+00:22:11,180 --> 00:22:18,800
+هو ال risk خلينا نعملكوا اختبار بسيط عشان نتأكد ان
+
+249
+00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:23,580
+انتوا in our standard
+
+250
+00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:36,940
+حكينا إذا ال geometric زي ما هو موجودة في الصفحة
+
+251
+00:22:36,940 --> 00:22:41,760
+132
+
+252
+00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:49,260
+ال geometric بتساوي ال arithmetic minus اللي هو ال
+
+253
+00:22:49,260 --> 00:22:53,100
+risk صح؟ how we can calculate risk؟
+
+254
+00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:01,020
+لأ خلينا احنا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+255
+00:23:01,020 --> 00:23:02,160
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+256
+00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:02,880
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+257
+00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,320
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+258
+00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:10,020
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+259
+00:23:10,020 --> 00:23:10,360
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+260
+00:23:10,360 --> 00:23:10,400
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+261
+00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:11,900
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+262
+00:23:11,900 --> 00:23:15,880
+انا انا انا
+
+263
+00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:23,620
+انا انا
+
+264
+00:23:23,620 --> 00:23:31,190
+ااتبعوا على المثال، المثال بسيط كام
+
+265
+00:23:31,190 --> 00:23:36,930
+الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة؟
+
+266
+00:23:36,930 --> 00:23:42,810
+مين .. نختار مين؟ what is the difference between
+
+267
+00:23:42,810 --> 00:23:43,590
+five and ten?
+
+268
+00:23:46,630 --> 00:23:52,990
+five .. five إيش الفرق بين .. يعني إيش الفرق بين
+
+269
+00:23:52,990 --> 00:23:58,300
+خمسة ما هو الفرق بين خمسة وعشرة؟خمسة which is
+
+270
+00:23:58,300 --> 00:24:06,100
+wrong سالب خمسة which is also wrong غلط أربعة مين
+
+271
+00:24:06,100 --> 00:24:11,340
+يلا شايفين اللي .. الفرق بين الخمسة و العشرة كام؟
+
+272
+00:24:11,340 --> 00:24:17,680
+ستة طيب أبسطلكوا إياها don't forget we are talking
+
+273
+00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,560
+about investments احنا بنحكي عن إيه؟ لو اتنين
+
+274
+00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:26,280
+شرايكشرايك يعني شركة اتنين مش تركيين مع بعض في
+
+275
+00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:32,780
+شركة partners partners مقصود فيها متزوجين يعني بس
+
+276
+00:24:32,780 --> 00:24:38,280
+اتنين مش تركيين في شركة و a half half يعني نص من
+
+277
+00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:44,820
+نص و ليكن مثلا الزوج و الزوجة مش تركيين okay إجا
+
+278
+00:24:44,820 --> 00:24:52,740
+اتفقوا مع بعضال profits نسيبه هان ال profits
+
+279
+00:24:52,740 --> 00:24:56,860
+عملوها عشرين دولار عشرين ألف دولار جداش المفروض
+
+280
+00:24:56,860 --> 00:25:03,740
+عشرة عشرة عشرة عشرة عشرة صح طيب إجى الرجل جال
+
+281
+00:25:03,740 --> 00:25:06,820
+للزوجة أنا عندي عباء كتير و كذا و إشي و خليني أنا
+
+282
+00:25:06,820 --> 00:25:11,760
+أخد منك ألف دولار قالت له okay ده إنه أنت عندك
+
+283
+00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:18,400
+عباء كتير فصار تسعة أحد عشر صار أحد عشر تسعةwhat
+
+284
+00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,920
+is the difference between them؟ كده الفرق بينهم؟
+
+285
+00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:31,140
+اتنين غلط شايفين كيف؟ لينا مش عارفة مش مبسوط الف
+
+286
+00:25:31,140 --> 00:25:39,640
+how you calculate this؟ كيف حسبتيها؟
+
+287
+00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:44,540
+الفرق بينهم الف طب ليش انتوا لما اجيتوا حكيتوا
+
+288
+00:25:44,540 --> 00:25:49,730
+الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة قلتوا خمسة؟الفرق بين
+
+289
+00:25:49,730 --> 00:25:53,490
+الخمسة والعشرة مش خمسة الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة هي
+
+290
+00:25:53,490 --> 00:25:59,570
+اتنين و نص طيب
+
+291
+00:25:59,570 --> 00:26:05,490
+خلّينا .. خلّينا نرجع للمثال .. خلّينا نرجع للمثال
+
+292
+00:26:05,490 --> 00:26:14,270
+عشان تفهم المعادلة هجيت من أن أعدل في المعادلة فهم
+
+293
+00:26:14,270 --> 00:26:18,640
+المثال هذا؟التنين اتفقوا خمسين في المية خمسين في
+
+294
+00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,860
+المية عشرة دولار عشرة تلاف عشرة تلاف صح؟ إيجي ..
+
+295
+00:26:21,860 --> 00:26:25,320
+إيجي الزوج حاكي للزوجة أنا بتعرفي كيف أولاد و كذا
+
+296
+00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,960
+و أنا اللي بصرف و إشي يلا تقولوا okay بعطيك ألف
+
+297
+00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:33,960
+دولار مني فراحت أخدت ألف دولار منها وعطتها لزوجها
+
+298
+00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,780
+صار هو معاه أحد عاش و هي معاه تسعة what is the
+
+299
+00:26:37,780 --> 00:26:40,600
+difference between them two thousands مش two
+
+300
+00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,880
+thousands الفرق بين أتهم ألفين لأ الفرق بين أتهم
+
+301
+00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:49,920
+ألفالفرق بينهم الف يعني if the husband give the
+
+302
+00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,480
+one thousand back to his wife إذا رجع الألف دولار
+
+303
+00:26:53,480 --> 00:27:00,320
+لزوجته بيصيروا عشرة عشرة صح ولا لأ؟ okay طيب
+
+304
+00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:08,410
+ابتدوا هنا ابتدوا هنا هلأ هاي خمسة وهي عشرةعشان
+
+305
+00:27:08,410 --> 00:27:12,110
+انا اقدر احسب الفرق بين ال .. ال geometric و بين
+
+306
+00:27:12,110 --> 00:27:15,590
+ال .. the same .. the same thing، نفس الفكرة، هاي
+
+307
+00:27:15,590 --> 00:27:18,510
+خمسة و أنا عشرة، الفرق بيبقى تقولها اتنين و نص،
+
+308
+00:27:18,510 --> 00:27:21,430
+صح؟ طيب، لو أعطينا الخمسة و قولنا لها يا خمسة خدّي
+
+309
+00:27:21,430 --> 00:27:25,330
+هاي اتنين و نص، فكم هتصير؟ طب اتنين و نص جيبناهم
+
+310
+00:27:25,330 --> 00:27:29,050
+من وين؟ من العشرة، اذا العشرة قولنا لها ناقص اتنين
+
+311
+00:27:29,050 --> 00:27:36,890
+و نص، هتصير سبعة و نصمظبوط ولا لأ؟ طيب خلينا نهنا
+
+312
+00:27:36,890 --> 00:27:41,590
+اللي جاوبت خمسة او مين اللي جاوب خمسة؟ لو احنا
+
+313
+00:27:41,590 --> 00:27:46,950
+جاوبنا خمسة قلنا الخمسة قابلنا من الخمسة فصارت
+
+314
+00:27:46,950 --> 00:27:51,470
+خمسة زي الخمسة عشرة اذا هذه صارت سفر وهذه صارت
+
+315
+00:27:51,470 --> 00:27:56,570
+عشرة كيف صاروا متساوين عاد؟ طيب
+
+316
+00:28:03,570 --> 00:28:09,350
+So again إذا ال geometric انتبهوا للمعادلة أنا ليش
+
+317
+00:28:09,350 --> 00:28:12,570
+أعطلكوا الكلام هذا انتبهوا للمعادلة ال geometric
+
+318
+00:28:12,570 --> 00:28:16,550
+بتساوي arithmetic minus sigma تربيع which is wrong
+
+319
+00:28:16,550 --> 00:28:25,450
+المفروض تكون half of sigma تربيع البنات
+
+320
+00:28:25,450 --> 00:28:28,370
+الكلام هذا اللي بنوا عليه بنوا عليه الكلام هذا
+
+321
+00:28:28,370 --> 00:28:33,380
+عملوا Nobel Prize عملوا إيش؟نوبل برايس عملوا جائزة
+
+322
+00:28:33,380 --> 00:28:38,840
+نوبل اللي بيشتغلوا في المواضيع هذه اللي هو
+
+323
+00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:49,460
+ماركويتس و ويليام شارب اذا
+
+324
+00:28:49,460 --> 00:28:55,860
+الفرق بين ال geometric geometric is equal to
+
+325
+00:28:55,860 --> 00:28:59,820
+arithmetic minus half of sigma two أو sigma تربيه
+
+326
+00:29:01,580 --> 00:29:07,120
+إذا نعرفنا why it is half، نعرفنا ليش half، نصها،
+
+327
+00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,180
+لأن زي ما حكينا الآن الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة مش
+
+328
+00:29:11,180 --> 00:29:14,430
+زي ما احنا بنعرف أنه خمسةلأن إحنا في ال
+
+329
+00:29:14,430 --> 00:29:17,770
+investments زي ما شوفنا بين الزوج والزوجة when
+
+330
+00:29:17,770 --> 00:29:21,550
+they invest in the company it doesn't mean .. when
+
+331
+00:29:21,550 --> 00:29:24,950
+the wife give her husband one thousand dollar it
+
+332
+00:29:24,950 --> 00:29:27,310
+doesn't mean that the difference is two thousands
+
+333
+00:29:27,310 --> 00:29:31,230
+the difference is one thousand if the husband give
+
+334
+00:29:31,230 --> 00:29:34,990
+back one thousand to his wife it means they have
+
+335
+00:29:34,990 --> 00:29:38,250
+one thousand for each يعني الابتنين هيكون عندهم
+
+336
+00:29:38,250 --> 00:29:44,660
+ten thousands مظبوط ولا لأ؟ إيش طبيعي؟يعني إذا ..
+
+337
+00:29:44,660 --> 00:29:52,020
+إذا أعطته أربعة ألف دولار،
+
+338
+00:29:52,020 --> 00:29:56,900
+جداش الفرق بينهم حصيل؟ أعطته أربعة ألف دولار، حصيل
+
+339
+00:29:56,900 --> 00:30:01,060
+هان كام؟ أربعة عشر ألف، و هان كام؟ ستة آف، الفرق
+
+340
+00:30:01,060 --> 00:30:05,640
+بينهم كام؟أه اربعة طول عشان نقل ستة كام تمانية اذا
+
+341
+00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:09,500
+هالفرق بين اتنين تمانية ع اتنين اذا الفرق اربعة
+
+342
+00:30:09,500 --> 00:30:13,140
+تلاف دولار لاربعة تلاف دولار لو احنا رجعنا الأربعة
+
+343
+00:30:13,140 --> 00:30:18,840
+هيصيروا عشرة عشرة okay فهذا القانون
+
+344
+00:30:29,230 --> 00:30:32,030
+So you understand what it means geometric and
+
+345
+00:30:32,030 --> 00:30:41,970
+arithmetic كيف؟ بطعة sigma تربيه مص sigma تربيه في
+
+346
+00:30:41,970 --> 00:30:46,170
+الامتحان او في الحياة ايش هنسويلك هنعطيك ال
+
+347
+00:30:46,170 --> 00:30:49,530
+arithmetic هنعطيك ال sigma تربيه هنقولك calculate
+
+348
+00:30:49,530 --> 00:30:56,780
+the geometric موجود عندكم بالبال .. بال reading
+
+349
+00:30:56,780 --> 00:30:58,960
+list اللي أنا أعطيتكوا إياها موجود عندكم مثال
+
+350
+00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:05,680
+بتحلو طبعا okay إذا الفرق بين ال geometric و ال ..
+
+351
+00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:10,540
+و ال arithmetic هو فرق بال .. بال إيش؟ بال risk و
+
+352
+00:31:10,540 --> 00:31:17,140
+أي risk مش ال risk كله نص ال risk okay half of the
+
+353
+00:31:17,140 --> 00:31:19,440
+risk okay
+
+354
+00:31:23,820 --> 00:31:29,180
+هذا حساب العائد طبعا قالوا اذا قلنا اذا قلنا اتنين
+
+355
+00:31:29,180 --> 00:31:33,380
+صح ال arithmetic لكن ال arithmetic is more common
+
+356
+00:31:33,380 --> 00:31:38,320
+than any other than any other calculations يعني
+
+357
+00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,800
+أكثر شيء هو ال arithmetic من other calculations
+
+358
+00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:45,540
+okay طيب
+
+359
+00:31:45,540 --> 00:31:50,800
+هاي طبعا أخدتواها المعادلة شرحنا لكواياها why is
+
+360
+00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:51,140
+it geometric
+
+361
+00:31:58,210 --> 00:32:01,990
+بنا نحسب ال sigma تربيع أخدناها أظن ال sigma تربيع
+
+362
+00:32:01,990 --> 00:32:06,510
+كيف نحسبها اللي هو عندنا ال R minus R bar تربيه
+
+363
+00:32:06,510 --> 00:32:12,610
+على 1 divided by N عشان
+
+364
+00:32:12,610 --> 00:32:18,630
+نعمل نشيل ال bias طبعا نجيب الجزر على 1 N minus 1
+
+365
+00:32:18,630 --> 00:32:22,090
+نجيب عند sharp ratio
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8d8f5bedca6eb998f4d42efd09b9ab36706bc9f1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1476 @@
+1
+00:00:20,670 --> 00:00:24,930
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة الأولى اتخذنا كيف
+
+2
+00:00:24,930 --> 00:00:30,790
+نحسب ال variance و ال standard deviation القانون و
+
+3
+00:00:30,790 --> 00:00:33,630
+طلبنا منكم انه في ال .. في البيت تحاولوا تعيدوا
+
+4
+00:00:33,630 --> 00:00:40,910
+للحل فى حد عاد الحل و طلع عنده إجابات غلط يا بات
+
+5
+00:00:40,910 --> 00:00:44,970
+فى حد رجع البيت و عاد الحل و طلع عنده مش نفس
+
+6
+00:00:44,970 --> 00:00:49,130
+الإجابة اللى موجودة هنا لأنه فى الامتحان هجيكم
+
+7
+00:00:49,130 --> 00:00:57,060
+مثال مشابه لهOkay اليوم هنحكي في موضوع مهم ال how
+
+8
+00:00:57,060 --> 00:01:02,900
+we can calculate the rate of return كيف ممكن نحسب
+
+9
+00:01:02,900 --> 00:01:06,680
+ال rate of return حكينا الطرق السابقة كنا نعتمد
+
+10
+00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:09,640
+على طريقة اسمها ال arithmetic method طريقة الاش
+
+11
+00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:14,360
+arithmetic طريقة ال arithmetic هي طريقة الحسابية
+
+12
+00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:18,660
+بيسموها في طريقة أخرى بيسموها geometric method
+
+13
+00:01:19,290 --> 00:01:22,770
+geometric methods اللي هو الطريقة الهندسية okay
+
+14
+00:01:22,770 --> 00:01:26,790
+إذا إحنا في أمام two different methods in
+
+15
+00:01:26,790 --> 00:01:30,670
+calculating the rate of return يعني في طريقتين في
+
+16
+00:01:30,670 --> 00:01:34,790
+احتساب ال rate of return طريقة ال arithmetic
+
+17
+00:01:34,790 --> 00:01:41,710
+وطريقة ال geometric okay طريقة ال arithmetic هي
+
+18
+00:01:41,710 --> 00:01:47,420
+طريقةيعني أغلب الناس بيستخدموها لو إحنا أعطينا
+
+19
+00:01:47,420 --> 00:01:53,180
+مثال for instance أخدنا
+
+20
+00:01:53,180 --> 00:02:02,340
+مثال بقولنا calculate the average rate of return
+
+21
+00:02:02,340 --> 00:02:11,120
+في
+
+22
+00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:17,790
+ال past yearكان 9% في ال second year 10% في ال
+
+23
+00:02:17,790 --> 00:02:30,330
+third year 12% 8% and 5% احنا اجتنح البيانات هذه و
+
+24
+00:02:30,330 --> 00:02:33,710
+بنحسب ال average rate of 10 مين بعرف يحسب ال
+
+25
+00:02:33,710 --> 00:02:38,950
+average rate of 10 متوسط متوسط العائد مجموعة مع
+
+26
+00:02:38,950 --> 00:02:48,400
+العددهم يعني بنقول مثلا5% بيقول 9 plus 10 plus 12
+
+27
+00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:57,340
+plus 8 plus 5 على 1,2,3,4,5 كام
+
+28
+00:02:57,340 --> 00:03:00,460
+بيطلع؟ هاي الألات الحاسبة معاكم أربعة و أربعين و
+
+29
+00:03:00,460 --> 00:03:03,960
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+30
+00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:04,620
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+31
+00:03:04,620 --> 00:03:05,020
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+32
+00:03:05,020 --> 00:03:06,880
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+33
+00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:07,460
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+34
+00:03:07,460 --> 00:03:09,040
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و
+
+35
+00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:10,980
+أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أربعين و أرب
+
+36
+00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:22,220
+8.8 8.8 طيب 8.8 طيب ايش احنا سوينا عمليا احنا we
+
+37
+00:03:22,220 --> 00:03:25,180
+use the arithmetic method استخدمنا ال arithmetic
+
+38
+00:03:25,180 --> 00:03:30,440
+method طريقة الحسابية قلنا اللي the summation of R
+
+39
+00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:36,180
+divided by N okay
+
+40
+00:03:36,180 --> 00:03:41,190
+يعني جمعنا ال R و قسمناها على Nهذه الطريقة اللي
+
+41
+00:03:41,190 --> 00:03:46,610
+احنا استخدمناها في ال .. طيب في طريقة تانية ممكن
+
+42
+00:03:46,610 --> 00:03:50,690
+احنا نستخدمها؟ طريقة الهندسية، طريقة الهندسية، في
+
+43
+00:03:50,690 --> 00:03:58,330
+حد سمعت عن الطريقة الهندسية؟ كيف؟ طريقة الهندسية
+
+44
+00:03:58,330 --> 00:04:02,910
+يعني مشابهة للمتتاريات طيب خلينا عشان نفهم الطريقة
+
+45
+00:04:02,910 --> 00:04:09,620
+الهندسية ناخد بفعل بسيططبعا حطوا فى رأسكم ان هذه
+
+46
+00:04:09,620 --> 00:04:12,140
+this is arithmetic method هى طريقة ال arithmetic
+
+47
+00:04:12,140 --> 00:04:19,560
+الحسابية let's consider this هو هذا هذا هو نفسه
+
+48
+00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:25,420
+هذا هو نفسه هذا بس انه احنا ال R of state divided
+
+49
+00:04:25,420 --> 00:04:31,160
+by N يعني هذه المجموعة تعرفى محاسبيا او رياضيا
+
+50
+00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:38,740
+اللى هو واحد على N مجموعة R هذه نفسهابياضيان نفس
+
+51
+00:04:38,740 --> 00:04:47,040
+الحاجة يعني يا بنات x على n is equal 1 على n times
+
+52
+00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:55,080
+x معروف بياضيان هذا خلينا
+
+53
+00:04:55,080 --> 00:05:03,640
+ناخد مثال عشان نشوف how we calculate return in
+
+54
+00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:04,280
+different ways
+
+55
+00:05:10,010 --> 00:05:15,730
+خلينا هان بالجانب هنا لو one of the investors
+
+56
+00:05:15,730 --> 00:05:19,090
+invest his money starting by one hundred dollar
+
+57
+00:05:19,090 --> 00:05:22,890
+يعني واحد من المستثمرين بدأ بمية دولار يعني
+
+58
+00:05:22,890 --> 00:05:28,970
+starting the money by one hundred dollar okay and
+
+59
+00:05:28,970 --> 00:05:32,830
+in the first year he lost fifty dollar and at the
+
+60
+00:05:32,830 --> 00:05:36,970
+end he make one hundred dollar هيبس السنة الأولى
+
+61
+00:05:36,970 --> 00:05:41,190
+صارت ثروة تبعت وخمسين دولاربنهاية السنة التانية
+
+62
+00:05:41,190 --> 00:05:44,530
+صارت الفروة تبعت مية دولار he started by one
+
+63
+00:05:44,530 --> 00:05:47,870
+hundred and then he end by one hundred what is the
+
+64
+00:05:47,870 --> 00:05:53,470
+return؟ كدهش العائد؟ يعني هو بدأ بمية و خلص بمية،
+
+65
+00:05:53,470 --> 00:06:00,750
+كدهش استفاد من هالشغل؟ خمسين خمسين؟ هو بدأ يعني في
+
+66
+00:06:00,750 --> 00:06:03,990
+.. بدأ معاه مية دولار و انتهى بمية دولار، اش ولا
+
+67
+00:06:03,990 --> 00:06:08,490
+اش؟ اش ولا اش يعني what it means ولا اش؟ zeroso
+
+68
+00:06:08,490 --> 00:06:14,430
+zero because P1 minus P naught على P naught لأن P1
+
+69
+00:06:14,430 --> 00:06:21,470
+هي ال ending price فمية minus مية على مية so it's
+
+70
+00:06:21,470 --> 00:06:25,130
+equal to zero طيب
+
+71
+00:06:25,130 --> 00:06:29,530
+احنا عاملين ايش سوينا we consider the investment
+
+72
+00:06:29,530 --> 00:06:33,750
+as a one period time يعني اعتبرنا ال investment كل
+
+73
+00:06:33,750 --> 00:06:35,610
+فترة زمنية واحدة okay
+
+74
+00:06:37,850 --> 00:06:41,310
+now there is other options to calculate return
+
+75
+00:06:41,310 --> 00:06:44,590
+ممكن حد يفكر بطريقة تانية كيف ممكن نحسب ال return
+
+76
+00:06:44,590 --> 00:06:56,870
+يعني احنا حكينا zero which is okay نفسني ممكن يعني
+
+77
+00:06:56,870 --> 00:07:03,930
+خسر خمسين مظبوط و بعدين بدأ بخمسين كسب كم؟ خمسين
+
+78
+00:07:03,930 --> 00:07:09,440
+طيب طب خمسين ماخص خمسين صفر صح؟طيب خلينا ن .. ن ..
+
+79
+00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:16,020
+ندورلكم بيها شوية هلأ احنا هخسر خمسين صح؟ طيب لو
+
+80
+00:07:16,020 --> 00:07:21,360
+جينا احنا قولنا minus fifty divided by one hundred
+
+81
+00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:26,500
+مظبوط لأن هو خسر خمسين على المية اللي هو البدأ
+
+82
+00:07:26,500 --> 00:07:32,720
+الاستثمار okay في الفترة الأولى كام خسر؟ minus
+
+83
+00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:38,870
+fifty percentطيب بالفترة التانية ربح fifty لكن بدل
+
+84
+00:07:38,870 --> 00:07:42,970
+السثوار بكام fifty إذا انجداش عمل one hundred
+
+85
+00:07:42,970 --> 00:07:48,870
+percent so if you do the average إذا احنا بحسب ال
+
+86
+00:07:48,870 --> 00:07:53,510
+average minus fifty plus one hundred divided by
+
+87
+00:07:53,510 --> 00:07:59,350
+two so it's equal twenty five percent سبحان
+
+88
+00:07:59,350 --> 00:08:04,590
+الله اه
+
+89
+00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:14,220
+Okay شوفوا كيف
+
+90
+00:08:14,220 --> 00:08:23,820
+سفر؟ minus fifty plus one hundred طيب guess ميهم
+
+91
+00:08:23,820 --> 00:08:27,520
+twenty
+
+92
+00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,800
+five percent طيب what is the difference between
+
+93
+00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:35,270
+the first one which is zeroand the second one
+
+94
+00:08:35,270 --> 00:08:39,170
+which is twenty five percent ايش الفرق بين الأولى
+
+95
+00:08:39,170 --> 00:08:45,070
+zero and twenty five percent يعني ايش الفرق بين
+
+96
+00:08:45,070 --> 00:08:51,330
+الأولى و التانية اه اه
+
+97
+00:08:51,330 --> 00:08:54,750
+what is the difference between the first one which
+
+98
+00:08:54,750 --> 00:08:58,950
+make zero percent and the second one which make
+
+99
+00:08:58,950 --> 00:09:03,410
+twenty five percent okay my second question is
+
+100
+00:09:03,630 --> 00:09:07,650
+which is correct؟
+
+101
+00:09:07,650 --> 00:09:12,830
+مين الصح فيهم؟ so some people saying the first one
+
+102
+00:09:12,830 --> 00:09:16,390
+and other people saying the second one which is
+
+103
+00:09:16,390 --> 00:09:20,890
+the correct مين
+
+104
+00:09:20,890 --> 00:09:26,070
+الصح فيهم؟ zero percent or twenty five percent? so
+
+105
+00:09:26,070 --> 00:09:29,130
+some people saying zero percent others twenty five
+
+106
+00:09:29,130 --> 00:09:32,150
+percent okay تلتين صح yes
+
+107
+00:09:42,740 --> 00:09:47,160
+Okay this is right so in the first time we
+
+108
+00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,000
+consider all of the investment in just only one
+
+109
+00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:55,120
+period so we starting here and we ending here so
+
+110
+00:09:55,120 --> 00:10:01,100
+the average or the rate of return is one hundred
+
+111
+00:10:01,100 --> 00:10:05,600
+minus one hundredSo it is zero. This is the first
+
+112
+00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:09,300
+assumption. The second one is breaking down the
+
+113
+00:10:09,300 --> 00:10:14,960
+investment into periods يعني الفكرة التانية أننا
+
+114
+00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:23,010
+قسمنا الاستثمار ل periodsنبدأ هنا و ننتهي هنا ثم
+
+115
+00:10:23,010 --> 00:10:29,730
+نبدأ هنا و ننتهي هنا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+116
+00:10:29,730 --> 00:10:29,730
+فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+117
+00:10:29,730 --> 00:10:30,490
+فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+118
+00:10:30,490 --> 00:10:33,330
+فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+119
+00:10:33,330 --> 00:10:33,390
+فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+120
+00:10:33,390 --> 00:10:33,390
+فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+121
+00:10:33,390 --> 00:10:33,390
+فا فا فا فا فا فا
+
+122
+00:10:45,330 --> 00:10:49,690
+مين الصح فيهم as I said both of the calculations
+
+123
+00:10:49,690 --> 00:10:55,370
+are correct okay which is the arithmetic and which
+
+124
+00:10:55,370 --> 00:11:00,110
+is the geometric the one with zero is the
+
+125
+00:11:00,110 --> 00:11:04,910
+geometric الأولى with zero is geometric and the
+
+126
+00:11:04,910 --> 00:11:09,290
+one with the average is arithmetic الأولى اللى
+
+127
+00:11:09,290 --> 00:11:13,260
+احنا استخدمناه هي ال geometricwe average all of
+
+128
+00:11:13,260 --> 00:11:16,580
+the periods and considering them as a one period
+
+129
+00:11:16,580 --> 00:11:23,320
+this is a geometric and in the reading list ال
+
+130
+00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:27,780
+reading اللي أعطتكوا إياها قبل يومين it gives you
+
+131
+00:11:27,780 --> 00:11:30,060
+more explanation about the difference between
+
+132
+00:11:30,060 --> 00:11:36,540
+geometric and arithmetic في خمس صفحات أعطتكم إياهم
+
+133
+00:11:36,540 --> 00:11:40,600
+وموجودين المفروضين في المكتبة صح فالمفروض البنات
+
+134
+00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:41,040
+ياخدوهم
+
+135
+00:11:43,990 --> 00:11:47,690
+أنا حكيت في أربع صفحات خمس صفحات أعطيتهم للبنات
+
+136
+00:11:47,690 --> 00:11:52,090
+يوم تلتينين هدول بيوضحوا ال arithmetic و ال
+
+137
+00:11:52,090 --> 00:11:56,290
+geometric فتاخدهم من المكتب هم موجودين okay تركتهم
+
+138
+00:11:56,290 --> 00:12:02,730
+في المكتب صح؟ اه okay اذا the one the geometric
+
+139
+00:12:02,730 --> 00:12:09,790
+the geometric is equal zero and the arithmetic is
+
+140
+00:12:09,790 --> 00:12:13,450
+equal twenty five percentانتبهوا، generally
+
+141
+00:12:13,450 --> 00:12:19,510
+speaking the result of arithmetic is greater than
+
+142
+00:12:19,510 --> 00:12:25,110
+the result of geometric في كل الحلات يا .. في كل
+
+143
+00:12:25,110 --> 00:12:29,410
+الحلات لما نحسب ال arithmetic، pay attention here
+
+144
+00:12:29,410 --> 00:12:34,270
+in all cases when we calculate the arithmetic and
+
+145
+00:12:34,270 --> 00:12:38,570
+when we calculate the geometric, arithmetic is
+
+146
+00:12:38,570 --> 00:12:42,210
+greater than geometricالجواب تبع ال arithmetic
+
+147
+00:12:42,210 --> 00:12:45,730
+بيكون أعلى من الجواب تبع ال geometric انتبهوا يعني
+
+148
+00:12:45,730 --> 00:12:50,170
+هذا ممكن يكون في أسئلة عليه ال question is why
+
+149
+00:12:50,170 --> 00:12:52,630
+there is a difference between geometric and
+
+150
+00:12:52,630 --> 00:12:56,970
+arithmetic؟ ليش في فرق بين ال geometric زي ما احنا
+
+151
+00:12:56,970 --> 00:13:04,290
+شوفنا في 0% او في 25%؟خلّينا احنا نشرح ال
+
+152
+00:13:04,290 --> 00:13:07,770
+geometric و بعدين نرجع to answer this question why
+
+153
+00:13:07,770 --> 00:13:12,210
+there is a difference between geometric and
+
+154
+00:13:12,210 --> 00:13:17,230
+arithmetic write down this question and just
+
+155
+00:13:17,230 --> 00:13:19,990
+remind me to answer this question at the end of
+
+156
+00:13:19,990 --> 00:13:24,750
+this class يعني بس ذكروني ان احنا نجاوبكم السؤال
+
+157
+00:13:24,750 --> 00:13:31,410
+هذا في نهاية ال class okay nowنحن نعرف كيف نتخيل
+
+158
+00:13:31,410 --> 00:13:35,370
+الارثماتيك نحن نعرف كيف نتخيل الارثماتيك فقط
+
+159
+00:13:35,370 --> 00:13:45,170
+لأذكركم الارثماتيك هو اكتشاف R مقال M هذا هو
+
+160
+00:13:45,170 --> 00:13:50,650
+الارثماتيك وأعطيكم مثلًا كيف نتخيل الارثماتيك الآن
+
+161
+00:13:50,650 --> 00:13:56,730
+كيف نتخيل الجيومتريك أولًاto calculate the
+
+162
+00:13:56,730 --> 00:14:00,110
+geometrics we have to calculate the terminal
+
+163
+00:14:00,110 --> 00:14:04,170
+values terminal values what is terminal values
+
+164
+00:14:04,170 --> 00:14:08,830
+means terminal values means terminal values لنحسب
+
+165
+00:14:08,830 --> 00:14:14,430
+ال terminal values يعني اللي هو العواقد للفترة
+
+166
+00:14:14,430 --> 00:14:20,910
+كلها مع بعض so احنا كنا نسوي بال .. بال .. ب
+
+167
+00:14:20,910 --> 00:14:25,310
+summation of R كنا ايش نسوي لو كان عندى عدة فترات
+
+168
+00:14:26,550 --> 00:14:30,910
+نشبعهم و نقسمهم أقصى فانسوا نشوف اللي هو إذا كان
+
+169
+00:14:30,910 --> 00:14:38,370
+عندي R1 plus R2 plus R3 okay till Rn divided by N
+
+170
+00:14:38,370 --> 00:14:43,610
+so this is still the arithmetic but in the
+
+171
+00:14:43,610 --> 00:14:46,970
+geometric the first thing we have to calculate the
+
+172
+00:14:46,970 --> 00:14:47,770
+terminal value
+
+173
+00:14:50,630 --> 00:14:54,950
+instead of summation of R because we consider this
+
+174
+00:14:54,950 --> 00:15:00,190
+as a one period بنحسبها كلها as a one period so we
+
+175
+00:15:00,190 --> 00:15:04,010
+don't need to multiply بنزمش ان احنا نعمل multiply
+
+176
+00:15:04,010 --> 00:15:12,350
+so what is what we can do then one R one times one
+
+177
+00:15:12,350 --> 00:15:21,680
+R two divided by one sorry times one R three oneR4
+
+178
+00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:25,520
+1R
+
+179
+00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:29,420
+M ثم
+
+180
+00:15:29,420 --> 00:15:41,060
+بعد ان نفعل هذا نحصل على النتائج نضربهم
+
+181
+00:15:41,060 --> 00:15:45,000
+نضربهم
+
+182
+00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:49,400
+بس نجمعهم واحد زائدبنضربهم في بعض وبعدين اللي
+
+183
+00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:53,080
+بنيجي بنقول ال terminal value كل ال terminal value
+
+184
+00:15:53,080 --> 00:16:02,880
+هذه one على n minus one هناخد مثال هذا
+
+185
+00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:09,520
+مهم اكتبيه اكتبيه طيب ناخد المثال فاكتبوا المثال
+
+186
+00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,980
+اللي اعطيتوايا على ال arithmetic اعطونيه عشان نحله
+
+187
+00:16:12,980 --> 00:16:14,700
+على ال geometric
+
+188
+00:16:20,540 --> 00:16:31,580
+الأولى 9% 10 12 8 5 5 okay
+
+189
+00:16:31,580 --> 00:16:35,420
+طيب
+
+190
+00:16:35,420 --> 00:16:41,260
+هلا نحسبها بال geometric نحسبها
+
+191
+00:16:41,260 --> 00:16:46,240
+بالاش بال geometric just multiply this just apply
+
+192
+00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:50,400
+this equation بس يعني نطبخ ال equationvery simple
+
+193
+00:16:50,400 --> 00:17:08,660
+يعني 1.09 x 1.10 x 1.12 x 1.8 x 1.5 خلصولي يا هادى
+
+194
+00:17:08,660 --> 00:17:12,760
+بنات بد الكل يكون معايا على حسبة please رجاء كلكوا
+
+195
+00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:13,880
+يكونوا معاكم على حسبة
+
+196
+00:17:20,020 --> 00:17:25,240
+نشوف طب ماشي نشوف طلعولي
+
+197
+00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:31,360
+جواب يا بنات خمسة point متأكد؟ غلط انا متأكد so
+
+198
+00:17:31,360 --> 00:17:36,260
+it's one point five طيب one point five ايش القانون
+
+199
+00:17:36,260 --> 00:17:43,380
+بيحكي؟ one point five بنحط the power of واحد على n
+
+200
+00:17:43,380 --> 00:17:49,010
+ال n قداش واحد اتنى اتلاتة اربعة خمسةنقص واحد عشان
+
+201
+00:17:49,010 --> 00:17:52,350
+نجيب one point five بقى هو واحد على خمسة كيف
+
+202
+00:17:52,350 --> 00:17:58,490
+نعملها تساوي جزر الخامس ل واحد point five minus
+
+203
+00:17:58,490 --> 00:18:04,610
+one يعني ممكن إذا حد مش عارف ممكن يجيب كم بيطلع
+
+204
+00:18:04,610 --> 00:18:09,310
+ناقص واحد تمانية بالمائية تمانية بالمائية تمانية
+
+205
+00:18:09,310 --> 00:18:13,650
+بالمائية اكيد اه طب فاكرين انتوا الجواب تبع الألف
+
+206
+00:18:13,650 --> 00:18:14,290
+متى كام طلع
+
+207
+00:18:23,650 --> 00:18:27,410
+طيب لأ لأ لأ خلّيني أقول حتة حتة، كم بالظبط طلع ال
+
+208
+00:18:27,410 --> 00:18:33,830
+arithmetic؟ عدول ال arithmetic، بسرعة بالظبط،
+
+209
+00:18:33,830 --> 00:18:38,510
+طيب انتبهوا هال arithmetic عندما نعطيه رمز A، طلع
+
+210
+00:18:38,510 --> 00:18:41,230
+تمانية point تمانية، و ال geometric عندما نعطيه
+
+211
+00:18:41,230 --> 00:18:47,490
+رمز G، بطلع تمانية point سبعة، إيش بتلاحظوا؟
+
+212
+00:18:51,370 --> 00:18:54,410
+مش بتلاحظوا البنات التانية الوراق؟ إيش رأيكم؟ اللي
+
+213
+00:18:54,410 --> 00:19:02,290
+قدام سعادة؟ أه وردة، مظبوط؟ أه إيش رأيك؟ ليش ..
+
+214
+00:19:02,290 --> 00:19:10,730
+إيش بتلاحظي فيه جواب A و B؟ مفيش افتلاع في كتير،
+
+215
+00:19:10,730 --> 00:19:19,160
+بتعرف ليش؟ مين بيقدر يجاوبني؟هذه ملاحظة .. ملاحظة
+
+216
+00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:23,920
+تانية .. which is greater than .. ال arithmetic is
+
+217
+00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,760
+greater than .. طب إذا في الامتحان طالع عندك ال
+
+218
+00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:30,840
+geometric is greater than arithmetic ..معناة كلها
+
+219
+00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:35,080
+بدون ما أطلع بالتصريح ..شغل غلط صح؟ ال arithmetic
+
+220
+00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:40,940
+طيب .. you remember when I ask you .. to ask me
+
+221
+00:19:40,940 --> 00:19:46,230
+why there is a difference .. ليش فيه فرق؟you know
+
+222
+00:19:46,230 --> 00:19:50,090
+why there is a difference نسبة الخطأ نسبة الخطأ ال
+
+223
+00:19:50,090 --> 00:19:56,290
+error what it means نسبة الخطأ اه فاكرين احنا
+
+224
+00:19:56,290 --> 00:20:01,090
+حكينا المحاضرة الفاترة حكينا عن risk اذا if
+
+225
+00:20:01,090 --> 00:20:06,010
+اتطلعوا على الأرقام خلينا نتطلعوا لحظة على الأرقام
+
+226
+00:20:06,010 --> 00:20:10,390
+شوفوا في الأرقام الأرقام متقاربين يعني لو أجينا
+
+227
+00:20:10,390 --> 00:20:15,100
+أخدنا مثال مثلا هذا case one أخدنا case twofor
+
+228
+00:20:15,100 --> 00:20:20,040
+instance أخدنا twelve percent twenty percent five
+
+229
+00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:24,960
+percent one percent و fifty percent إيش رايكوا
+
+230
+00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:29,140
+بالأرقام هذه؟ فالخطأ عالي كتير أو بيسموها ال risk
+
+231
+00:20:29,140 --> 00:20:35,680
+is great شوي شوي عشان أنا فهمي بسيط كتير هلأ إذا
+
+232
+00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:40,360
+أحنا عسبنا ال arithmetic و ال geometric لهذه هلاقي
+
+233
+00:20:40,360 --> 00:20:43,320
+there is a big gap between the arithmetic and
+
+234
+00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:50,190
+geometricwhat we conclude in this when we face up
+
+235
+00:20:50,190 --> 00:20:54,790
+a stock a particular stock with a higher risk we
+
+236
+00:20:54,790 --> 00:20:57,790
+will find that the arithmetic is far away from the
+
+237
+00:20:57,790 --> 00:21:02,810
+geometric يعني إذا كان عندى سهم كتير مخاطرته عالى
+
+238
+00:21:02,810 --> 00:21:06,040
+هنلاقي ال arithmetic بعيدة عن ال geometricwhen
+
+239
+00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:10,500
+they .. when they .. a particular stock has a
+
+240
+00:21:10,500 --> 00:21:13,460
+minimum risk it means the arithmetic .. arithmetic
+
+241
+00:21:13,460 --> 00:21:17,100
+become closer and closer to the geometric بتكون
+
+242
+00:21:17,100 --> 00:21:20,420
+جريبة كتير على ال geometric طيب so the difference
+
+243
+00:21:20,420 --> 00:21:25,060
+between them is the risk الفرق بينهم هو ال risk
+
+244
+00:21:25,060 --> 00:21:29,920
+okay اعطيني ال .. ال .. ال .. انا اعطيتكم اياها
+
+245
+00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,880
+المرة الفاتة الشرط طبعا عنكم مصور
+
+246
+00:21:36,270 --> 00:21:41,090
+ال chapter تبعكم موجود المصور؟ اعطيني ال chapter
+
+247
+00:21:41,090 --> 00:21:48,270
+ال chapter okay عشان تتابعوا معايا انتوا في صفحه
+
+248
+00:21:48,270 --> 00:21:59,630
+في صفحه 132 التقصير تبعه okay تفضلي يا عمال okay
+
+249
+00:21:59,630 --> 00:22:04,470
+هلا طب اذا the difference between this and this
+
+250
+00:22:04,470 --> 00:22:11,180
+انت تبقى اناالفرق بين ال arithmetic و ال geometric
+
+251
+00:22:11,180 --> 00:22:18,800
+هو ال risk خلينا نعملكوا اختبار بسيط عشان نتأكد ان
+
+252
+00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:23,580
+انتوا in our standard
+
+253
+00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:36,940
+حكينا إذا ال geometric زي ما هو موجودة في الصفحة
+
+254
+00:22:36,940 --> 00:22:41,760
+132
+
+255
+00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:49,260
+ال geometric بتساوي ال arithmetic minus اللي هو ال
+
+256
+00:22:49,260 --> 00:22:53,100
+risk صح؟ how we can calculate risk؟
+
+257
+00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:01,020
+لأ خلينا احنا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+258
+00:23:01,020 --> 00:23:02,160
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+259
+00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:02,880
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+260
+00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,320
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+261
+00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:10,020
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+262
+00:23:10,020 --> 00:23:10,360
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+263
+00:23:10,360 --> 00:23:10,400
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+264
+00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:11,900
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+265
+00:23:11,900 --> 00:23:11,900
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+266
+00:23:11,900 --> 00:23:15,880
+انا انا انا
+
+267
+00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:23,620
+انا انا
+
+268
+00:23:23,620 --> 00:23:31,190
+ااتبعوا على المثال، المثال بسيط كام
+
+269
+00:23:31,190 --> 00:23:36,930
+الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة؟
+
+270
+00:23:36,930 --> 00:23:42,810
+مين .. نختار مين؟ what is the difference between
+
+271
+00:23:42,810 --> 00:23:43,590
+five and ten?
+
+272
+00:23:46,630 --> 00:23:52,990
+five .. five إيش الفرق بين .. يعني إيش الفرق بين
+
+273
+00:23:52,990 --> 00:23:58,300
+خمسة ما هو الفرق بين خمسة وعشرة؟خمسة which is
+
+274
+00:23:58,300 --> 00:24:06,100
+wrong سالب خمسة which is also wrong غلط أربعة مين
+
+275
+00:24:06,100 --> 00:24:11,340
+يلا شايفين اللي .. الفرق بين الخمسة و العشرة كام؟
+
+276
+00:24:11,340 --> 00:24:17,680
+ستة طيب أبسطلكوا إياها don't forget we are talking
+
+277
+00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,560
+about investments احنا بنحكي عن إيه؟ لو اتنين
+
+278
+00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:26,280
+شرايكشرايك يعني شركة اتنين مش تركيين مع بعض في
+
+279
+00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:32,780
+شركة partners partners مقصود فيها متزوجين يعني بس
+
+280
+00:24:32,780 --> 00:24:38,280
+اتنين مش تركيين في شركة و a half half يعني نص من
+
+281
+00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:44,820
+نص و ليكن مثلا الزوج و الزوجة مش تركيين okay إجا
+
+282
+00:24:44,820 --> 00:24:52,740
+اتفقوا مع بعضال profits نسيبه هان ال profits
+
+283
+00:24:52,740 --> 00:24:56,860
+عملوها عشرين دولار عشرين ألف دولار جداش المفروض
+
+284
+00:24:56,860 --> 00:25:03,740
+عشرة عشرة عشرة عشرة عشرة صح طيب إجى الرجل جال
+
+285
+00:25:03,740 --> 00:25:06,820
+للزوجة أنا عندي عباء كتير و كذا و إشي و خليني أنا
+
+286
+00:25:06,820 --> 00:25:11,760
+أخد منك ألف دولار قالت له okay ده إنه أنت عندك
+
+287
+00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:18,400
+عباء كتير فصار تسعة أحد عشر صار أحد عشر تسعةwhat
+
+288
+00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,920
+is the difference between them؟ كده الفرق بينهم؟
+
+289
+00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:31,140
+اتنين غلط شايفين كيف؟ لينا مش عارفة مش مبسوط الف
+
+290
+00:25:31,140 --> 00:25:39,640
+how you calculate this؟ كيف حسبتيها؟
+
+291
+00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:44,540
+الفرق بينهم الف طب ليش انتوا لما اجيتوا حكيتوا
+
+292
+00:25:44,540 --> 00:25:49,730
+الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة قلتوا خمسة؟الفرق بين
+
+293
+00:25:49,730 --> 00:25:53,490
+الخمسة والعشرة مش خمسة الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة هي
+
+294
+00:25:53,490 --> 00:25:59,570
+اتنين و نص طيب
+
+295
+00:25:59,570 --> 00:26:05,490
+خلّينا .. خلّينا نرجع للمثال .. خلّينا نرجع للمثال
+
+296
+00:26:05,490 --> 00:26:14,270
+عشان تفهم المعادلة هجيت من أن أعدل في المعادلة فهم
+
+297
+00:26:14,270 --> 00:26:18,640
+المثال هذا؟التنين اتفقوا خمسين في المية خمسين في
+
+298
+00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,860
+المية عشرة دولار عشرة تلاف عشرة تلاف صح؟ إيجي ..
+
+299
+00:26:21,860 --> 00:26:25,320
+إيجي الزوج حاكي للزوجة أنا بتعرفي كيف أولاد و كذا
+
+300
+00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,960
+و أنا اللي بصرف و إشي يلا تقولوا okay بعطيك ألف
+
+301
+00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:33,960
+دولار مني فراحت أخدت ألف دولار منها وعطتها لزوجها
+
+302
+00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,780
+صار هو معاه أحد عاش و هي معاه تسعة what is the
+
+303
+00:26:37,780 --> 00:26:40,600
+difference between them two thousands مش two
+
+304
+00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,880
+thousands الفرق بين أتهم ألفين لأ الفرق بين أتهم
+
+305
+00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:49,920
+ألفالفرق بينهم الف يعني if the husband give the
+
+306
+00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,480
+one thousand back to his wife إذا رجع الألف دولار
+
+307
+00:26:53,480 --> 00:27:00,320
+لزوجته بيصيروا عشرة عشرة صح ولا لأ؟ okay طيب
+
+308
+00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:08,410
+ابتدوا هنا ابتدوا هنا هلأ هاي خمسة وهي عشرةعشان
+
+309
+00:27:08,410 --> 00:27:12,110
+انا اقدر احسب الفرق بين ال .. ال geometric و بين
+
+310
+00:27:12,110 --> 00:27:15,590
+ال .. the same .. the same thing، نفس الفكرة، هاي
+
+311
+00:27:15,590 --> 00:27:18,510
+خمسة و أنا عشرة، الفرق بيبقى تقولها اتنين و نص،
+
+312
+00:27:18,510 --> 00:27:21,430
+صح؟ طيب، لو أعطينا الخمسة و قولنا لها يا خمسة خدّي
+
+313
+00:27:21,430 --> 00:27:25,330
+هاي اتنين و نص، فكم هتصير؟ طب اتنين و نص جيبناهم
+
+314
+00:27:25,330 --> 00:27:29,050
+من وين؟ من العشرة، اذا العشرة قولنا لها ناقص اتنين
+
+315
+00:27:29,050 --> 00:27:36,890
+و نص، هتصير سبعة و نصمظبوط ولا لأ؟ طيب خلينا نهنا
+
+316
+00:27:36,890 --> 00:27:41,590
+اللي جاوبت خمسة او مين اللي جاوب خمسة؟ لو احنا
+
+317
+00:27:41,590 --> 00:27:46,950
+جاوبنا خمسة قلنا الخمسة قابلنا من الخمسة فصارت
+
+318
+00:27:46,950 --> 00:27:51,470
+خمسة زي الخمسة عشرة اذا هذه صارت سفر وهذه صارت
+
+319
+00:27:51,470 --> 00:27:56,570
+عشرة كيف صاروا متساوين عاد؟ طيب
+
+320
+00:28:03,570 --> 00:28:09,350
+So again إذا ال geometric انتبهوا للمعادلة أنا ليش
+
+321
+00:28:09,350 --> 00:28:12,570
+أعطلكوا الكلام هذا انتبهوا للمعادلة ال geometric
+
+322
+00:28:12,570 --> 00:28:16,550
+بتساوي arithmetic minus sigma تربيع which is wrong
+
+323
+00:28:16,550 --> 00:28:25,450
+المفروض تكون half of sigma تربيع البنات
+
+324
+00:28:25,450 --> 00:28:28,370
+الكلام هذا اللي بنوا عليه بنوا عليه الكلام هذا
+
+325
+00:28:28,370 --> 00:28:33,380
+عملوا Nobel Prize عملوا إيش؟نوبل برايس عملوا جائزة
+
+326
+00:28:33,380 --> 00:28:38,840
+نوبل اللي بيشتغلوا في المواضيع هذه اللي هو
+
+327
+00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:49,460
+ماركويتس و ويليام شارب اذا
+
+328
+00:28:49,460 --> 00:28:55,860
+الفرق بين ال geometric geometric is equal to
+
+329
+00:28:55,860 --> 00:28:59,820
+arithmetic minus half of sigma two أو sigma تربيه
+
+330
+00:29:01,580 --> 00:29:07,120
+إذا نعرفنا why it is half، نعرفنا ليش half، نصها،
+
+331
+00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,180
+لأن زي ما حكينا الآن الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة مش
+
+332
+00:29:11,180 --> 00:29:14,430
+زي ما احنا بنعرف أنه خمسةلأن إحنا في ال
+
+333
+00:29:14,430 --> 00:29:17,770
+investments زي ما شوفنا بين الزوج والزوجة when
+
+334
+00:29:17,770 --> 00:29:21,550
+they invest in the company it doesn't mean .. when
+
+335
+00:29:21,550 --> 00:29:24,950
+the wife give her husband one thousand dollar it
+
+336
+00:29:24,950 --> 00:29:27,310
+doesn't mean that the difference is two thousands
+
+337
+00:29:27,310 --> 00:29:31,230
+the difference is one thousand if the husband give
+
+338
+00:29:31,230 --> 00:29:34,990
+back one thousand to his wife it means they have
+
+339
+00:29:34,990 --> 00:29:38,250
+one thousand for each يعني الابتنين هيكون عندهم
+
+340
+00:29:38,250 --> 00:29:44,660
+ten thousands مظبوط ولا لأ؟ إيش طبيعي؟يعني إذا ..
+
+341
+00:29:44,660 --> 00:29:52,020
+إذا أعطته أربعة ألف دولار،
+
+342
+00:29:52,020 --> 00:29:56,900
+جداش الفرق بينهم حصيل؟ أعطته أربعة ألف دولار، حصيل
+
+343
+00:29:56,900 --> 00:30:01,060
+هان كام؟ أربعة عشر ألف، و هان كام؟ ستة آف، الفرق
+
+344
+00:30:01,060 --> 00:30:05,640
+بينهم كام؟أه اربعة طول عشان نقل ستة كام تمانية اذا
+
+345
+00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:09,500
+هالفرق بين اتنين تمانية ع اتنين اذا الفرق اربعة
+
+346
+00:30:09,500 --> 00:30:13,140
+تلاف دولار لاربعة تلاف دولار لو احنا رجعنا الأربعة
+
+347
+00:30:13,140 --> 00:30:18,840
+هيصيروا عشرة عشرة okay فهذا القانون
+
+348
+00:30:29,230 --> 00:30:32,030
+So you understand what it means geometric and
+
+349
+00:30:32,030 --> 00:30:41,970
+arithmetic كيف؟ بطعة sigma تربيه مص sigma تربيه في
+
+350
+00:30:41,970 --> 00:30:46,170
+الامتحان او في الحياة ايش هنسويلك هنعطيك ال
+
+351
+00:30:46,170 --> 00:30:49,530
+arithmetic هنعطيك ال sigma تربيه هنقولك calculate
+
+352
+00:30:49,530 --> 00:30:56,780
+the geometric موجود عندكم بالبال .. بال reading
+
+353
+00:30:56,780 --> 00:30:58,960
+list اللي أنا أعطيتكوا إياها موجود عندكم مثال
+
+354
+00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:05,680
+بتحلو طبعا okay إذا الفرق بين ال geometric و ال ..
+
+355
+00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:10,540
+و ال arithmetic هو فرق بال .. بال إيش؟ بال risk و
+
+356
+00:31:10,540 --> 00:31:17,140
+أي risk مش ال risk كله نص ال risk okay half of the
+
+357
+00:31:17,140 --> 00:31:19,440
+risk okay
+
+358
+00:31:23,820 --> 00:31:29,180
+هذا حساب العائد طبعا قالوا اذا قلنا اذا قلنا اتنين
+
+359
+00:31:29,180 --> 00:31:33,380
+صح ال arithmetic لكن ال arithmetic is more common
+
+360
+00:31:33,380 --> 00:31:38,320
+than any other than any other calculations يعني
+
+361
+00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,800
+أكثر شيء هو ال arithmetic من other calculations
+
+362
+00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:45,540
+okay طيب
+
+363
+00:31:45,540 --> 00:31:50,800
+هاي طبعا أخدتواها المعادلة شرحنا لكواياها why is
+
+364
+00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:51,140
+it geometric
+
+365
+00:31:58,210 --> 00:32:01,990
+بنا نحسب ال sigma تربيع أخدناها أظن ال sigma تربيع
+
+366
+00:32:01,990 --> 00:32:06,510
+كيف نحسبها اللي هو عندنا ال R minus R bar تربيه
+
+367
+00:32:06,510 --> 00:32:12,610
+على 1 divided by N عشان
+
+368
+00:32:12,610 --> 00:32:18,630
+نعمل نشيل ال bias طبعا نجيب الجزر على 1 N minus 1
+
+369
+00:32:18,630 --> 00:32:22,090
+نجيب عند sharp ratio
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ede5d89624f94872bf6693baaab0148591a5fe4a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1951 @@
+1
+00:00:23,070 --> 00:00:27,510
+فبالنسبة للكتاب اللي احنا مقرنينَهُ لهذا الكتاب موجود
+
+2
+00:00:27,510 --> 00:00:32,310
+على نسخة القصدية تبعته كل مرة أنا بجيب لكم ال
+
+3
+00:00:32,310 --> 00:00:38,090
+chapter اللي بنحكي فيه طبعا هذا الكتاب لآخر نسخة 
+
+4
+00:00:38,090 --> 00:00:43,870
+في الـ investments طبعا هذا نسخة التاسعة ninth
+
+5
+00:00:43,870 --> 00:00:49,130
+edition و احنا من اللي هنكون focus على الكتاب ال
+
+6
+00:00:49,130 --> 00:00:54,550
+slides هي headlines تركز على headlines أكيد أنه مش
+
+7
+00:00:54,550 --> 00:00:58,570
+هي .. الانتحار مش هيكون بالـ slides هيكون mainly
+
+8
+00:00:58,570 --> 00:01:03,470
+technical ف أثناء الشرح إذا أنتم حسيتوا مش
+
+9
+00:01:03,470 --> 00:01:07,130
+واضحة الأمور ف raise your hand و you are free to
+
+10
+00:01:07,130 --> 00:01:11,690
+ask any question فإذا ما حدش برفع أيضا على plan you
+
+11
+00:01:11,690 --> 00:01:17,840
+understand Okay فهالقطعة بتاعة الشغل ما تخجلوا منها لأنها أنا
+
+12
+00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:19,820
+ما بعرفش شو أنتم بتفكروا في الـ .. في الـ
+
+13
+00:01:19,820 --> 00:01:23,920
+investments وبالتالي أي شغلة أي مصطلح مش واضح أي 
+
+14
+00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:29,240
+سؤال مش واضح وبالتالي لازم أنه أنتم تسألوا إن
+
+15
+00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:33,740
+احنا هان جايين نتعلم مش هين .. بس نهز راسنا ونقول
+
+16
+00:01:33,740 --> 00:01:38,380
+okay كل شيء مكتمون واحنا مش فاهمين ف please يعني
+
+17
+00:01:38,380 --> 00:01:43,310
+احنا موجودين هنعلمكم اهو بالتالي ما بديش يعني حتى
+
+18
+00:01:43,310 --> 00:01:47,730
+نخرج من القاعة وما فهمناش هذا .. لأنها أنا في عندي
+
+19
+00:01:47,730 --> 00:01:51,110
+perception أنه طالما أنه أنا انتقلت للنقطة اللي
+
+20
+00:01:51,110 --> 00:01:54,410
+بعديها بكون معناه الكلام أنه the previous one is
+
+21
+00:01:54,410 --> 00:01:59,510
+understandable يعني so مش هيكون الشيء صعب عليكم
+
+22
+00:02:01,590 --> 00:02:05,790
+تمام؟ في آخر كل chapter في أسئلة بتحاولوا تسألوا
+
+23
+00:02:05,790 --> 00:02:09,010
+الـ .. الـ .. الأسئلة هذه وإن شاء الله يعني يكون ..
+
+24
+00:02:09,010 --> 00:02:13,690
+إذا في مشاكل في الأسئلة ترجعوا إليه و نتناقش فيها
+
+25
+00:02:13,690 --> 00:02:20,370
+أنا كمان طلبت من الـ .. من الأستاذ الرئيس القسم وكان
+
+26
+00:02:20,370 --> 00:02:23,610
+مشكور يعني واثق على أنه احنا نعمل discussion
+
+27
+00:02:23,610 --> 00:02:26,850
+عن مادة هذه فإن شاء الله يكون في discussion بالمادة
+
+28
+00:02:26,850 --> 00:02:30,970
+لأنها في جزء كبير عامل منها وبالتالي هذا شيء إيجابي
+
+29
+00:02:30,970 --> 00:02:34,650
+يعني بساعدكم على أن أنتم تفهموا المادة بشكل أكبر
+
+30
+00:02:34,650 --> 00:02:41,170
+تمام؟ ده ايه عن السؤال اللي بنسأله طبعا الأكل
+
+31
+00:02:41,170 --> 00:02:44,550
+ممنوع أنتم عارفين تعليمات الجامعة الـ mobile
+
+32
+00:02:44,550 --> 00:02:48,760
+phones switch off يعني حتى أنا ما بديش الـ mobile
+
+33
+00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,620
+phone تبعتي عندي، ايه؟ هي محطوطة في الشنطة ومعمول لها
+
+34
+00:02:52,620 --> 00:02:58,000
+silent وما بيبينش حد يتصل فينا أثناء
+
+35
+00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:02,920
+المحاضرة وأنتم نفس الشغلة، طبعا؟ فأي طالبة أو أي
+
+36
+00:03:02,920 --> 00:03:05,160
+طالب بيكون عنده الـ mobile phone محطوط على الـ
+
+37
+00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:09,160
+desktop تبعه يعني أنا هيأثر على الـ participation
+
+38
+00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:14,060
+تبعته طبعا ف please يعني احنا جايين هنا ندرس
+
+39
+00:03:14,060 --> 00:03:18,420
+texting messages والشغلات هذه إذا شغلات emergency
+
+40
+00:03:18,420 --> 00:03:23,140
+ترفع يديك وتطلع برة وتعمل ايه الـ texting من هلأ
+
+41
+00:03:23,140 --> 00:03:30,000
+أكثر okay ف .. هذا في حالة emergency يعني ما تستغنيش
+
+42
+00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,520
+الأمر شغلات إن شاء الله يعني ما بنوصل لمراحل الـ ..
+
+43
+00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:38,920
+الـ emergency هذه طبعا زي ما حكيله أنه احنا هانِدرج
+
+44
+00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:45,000
+على الكتاب والـ slides فيه بالنسبة للـ student اللي
+
+45
+00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:50,420
+هم بدهم يزيدوا المعرفة تبعتهم طبعا هذا مش هيدخل في
+
+46
+00:03:50,420 --> 00:03:56,020
+الـ exam هيكون في other references هتساعدهم يعني إذا
+
+47
+00:03:56,020 --> 00:03:59,040
+بدهم .. يعني are seeking more knowledge فإذا هم
+
+48
+00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:03,260
+بدهم أكثر معرفة، بدهم هذا فأنا هأترك لهم references
+
+49
+00:04:03,260 --> 00:04:08,440
+وهأترك لهم articles يقرؤوها في الـ .. في البيت لكن
+
+50
+00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:11,960
+هذه مش داخلة في الـ exams يعني احنا الـ mainly الـ
+
+51
+00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:16,060
+exam تبعتنا من الكتاب ومن الشرح اللي احنا مشروحينه
+
+52
+00:04:16,060 --> 00:04:21,570
+في اللقاء Okay هذا الاتفاق في حد عنده سؤال في
+
+53
+00:04:21,570 --> 00:04:27,050
+الموضوع قبل ما نحكي في .. هذا الكتاب؟ لأ مش هذا
+
+54
+00:04:27,050 --> 00:04:31,290
+الكتاب هذا الـ chapter one فانا صورت لكم الـ chapter
+
+55
+00:04:31,290 --> 00:04:36,530
+one لأ هاي نصه أول شيء نصه الـ introduction تبع
+
+56
+00:04:36,530 --> 00:04:40,930
+الكتاب وتعريف الكتاب والمواضيع هذه ممكن أنا
+
+57
+00:04:40,930 --> 00:04:46,810
+أواجهكم بالكتاب بس لأنه الـ copyright احنا يعني
+
+58
+00:04:46,810 --> 00:04:51,670
+بحوالي عشر شباتر، هناخد حوالي عشر شباتر وأنا يعني
+
+59
+00:04:51,670 --> 00:04:54,530
+اللقاء اللي جاي بجيب لكم still a bus بس حابب أنه
+
+60
+00:04:54,530 --> 00:04:59,330
+العدد يكتمل بحيث أنه يكون شرح كامل للـ action بعد
+
+61
+00:04:59,330 --> 00:05:05,070
+ده okay فاحنا ماشيين، الأسبوع هذا هناخد فيه طبيعي
+
+62
+00:05:05,070 --> 00:05:12,090
+فبتحكوا لـ .. لزميلاتكم أنه يعني احنا يعني بدأنا
+
+63
+00:05:13,310 --> 00:05:19,210
+بحيث أنه ي .. نستطيع أنه نوصل المعلومة لأكبر عدد
+
+64
+00:05:19,210 --> 00:05:22,730
+ممكن من الطلاب بالنسبة للـ .. زي ما حكيت عن الكتاب
+
+65
+00:05:22,730 --> 00:05:27,030
+هو هذا investment كتاب آخر نسخة بالـ .. بالـ
+
+66
+00:05:27,030 --> 00:05:34,570
+investment كتاب يدرس في أغلب جامعات العالم وينصح
+
+67
+00:05:34,570 --> 00:05:40,630
+سهل في .. في examples كتير بعدين بربطكم مع الواقع
+
+68
+00:05:40,630 --> 00:05:44,050
+مش هتكونوا تتغلبوا كثير في قراءة الكتاب حتى الـ
+
+69
+00:05:44,050 --> 00:05:47,570
+language تبعته يعني language سهلة كثير مش هيكون
+
+70
+00:05:47,570 --> 00:05:51,090
+عندنا الصعوبة في التعامل مع هذا الكتاب ما تخافوش
+
+71
+00:05:51,090 --> 00:05:53,190
+هذا الـ chapter أول مش هو هذا الـ chapter أول هذا بس
+
+72
+00:05:53,190 --> 00:05:56,510
+الـ introduction وايش الزيادات اللي صارت بالـ ..
+
+73
+00:05:56,510 --> 00:05:59,950
+بالـ edition .. آخر edition يعني لو إيجينا احنا
+
+74
+00:05:59,950 --> 00:06:05,380
+نبدأ الـ chapter هيبدأ من هنا هذا الجزء بس بعرفنا
+
+75
+00:06:05,380 --> 00:06:11,450
+بالكتاب وايش .. طبعا أكيد مش حاجة نتحنم فيها بس
+
+76
+00:06:11,450 --> 00:06:13,730
+كويس تعرفوا شو الزيادات اللي صارت على الـ edition
+
+77
+00:06:13,730 --> 00:06:16,530
+اللي فاتت هذا للناس اللي بدها تعرف الناس اللي هذا
+
+78
+00:06:16,530 --> 00:06:22,350
+أنتم مطالبين بالـ .. بالبدء بالـ chapter okay فهذا هو
+
+79
+00:06:22,350 --> 00:06:27,790
+بالنسبة لتوزيع الدرجات وهدي دائما اللي ممكن يكون
+
+80
+00:06:27,790 --> 00:06:33,290
+فيها شوية discussion فأنا يعني حبيت أناقشها معكم
+
+81
+00:06:33,290 --> 00:06:36,790
+بحيث أنه يعني يكون عندنا الـ ..
+
+82
+00:06:44,820 --> 00:06:50,800
+طبعا زي ما أنتم بتعرفوا لازم يكون عندي اللي هو
+
+83
+00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:57,720
+midterm exam ولازم يكون عندي final exam هدول يعني
+
+84
+00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:04,560
+ما بتغيروش الـ midterm لو حكينا مثلا thirty وهنا
+
+85
+00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:12,020
+forty فبيصير عندي seventy عندنا الـ attendance والـ
+
+86
+00:07:12,020 --> 00:07:19,580
+participation عندنا ten والـ reports and assignments
+
+87
+00:07:19,580 --> 00:07:27,800
+اللي هو twenty okay فبيصير عندي thirty forty sixty
+
+88
+00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:32,480
+one hundred okay فبيصير عندي المجموع one hundred
+
+89
+00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:39,720
+نيجي نحكي واحدة واحدة واحدة واحدة الـ midterm exam
+
+90
+00:07:40,910 --> 00:07:45,690
+الـ midterm exam طبعا احنا بنخلص مثلا four chapters
+
+91
+00:07:45,690 --> 00:07:49,670
+وبيكون عندنا الـ .. الـ .. الامتحان تبع الـ midterm
+
+92
+00:07:49,670 --> 00:07:56,810
+exam يعني بتعده بعد مثلا ثمان أسابيع من الفصل نروح
+
+93
+00:07:56,810 --> 00:08:02,460
+ندخل في الـ midterm exam يعني حسب الخطة سبعتنا إن
+
+94
+00:08:02,460 --> 00:08:06,020
+شاء الله المرة الجاية احنا بن .. يعني تقريبا ثلاثة
+
+95
+00:08:06,020 --> 00:08:09,140
+لأ four chapters من ثلاثة لأربعة chapters حسب احنا
+
+96
+00:08:09,140 --> 00:08:13,780
+جهدنا وحسب التزامكم والـ .. احنا بالآخر مش .. مش
+
+97
+00:08:13,780 --> 00:08:17,000
+معانين كثير على كام chapter معانين كذا .. كام أنتم
+
+98
+00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:24,080
+بتستوعبوا الموضوع؟ شهر تحسبيهم كم سهم بـ zero يعني
+
+99
+00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,980
+ستة أسابيع سبعة أسابيع okay يعني نحسب حسابنا بعد
+
+100
+00:08:26,980 --> 00:08:32,920
+سبعة أسابيع يكون عندنا عايش الامتحان المسمى طبعا؟ لأن
+
+101
+00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:36,060
+بالنسبة للـ attendance والـ participation الحضور والـ
+
+102
+00:08:36,060 --> 00:08:40,040
+اللي هو الغياب هدول وهدول مجموعهم ثلاثين صح؟
+
+103
+00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:45,760
+الأغلب بيفكروا أن هذه محطوطة في جيوبهم بس بالعكس
+
+104
+00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:49,820
+يعني يمكن المدة والفعل يكون في جيوبكم وهدول طالعين
+
+105
+00:08:49,820 --> 00:08:53,040
+ليش؟
+
+106
+00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,420
+ليش؟ لأنها ممكن أن تكون attendance hundred percent
+
+107
+00:08:56,420 --> 00:09:01,260
+attendance والمشكلة أنه ما فيش participation هناخد
+
+108
+00:09:01,260 --> 00:09:06,320
+خمسة من عشرة مثلا حسب كام بيصير participation
+
+109
+00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:08,820
+عندكم الـ participation مش خارج أن ترفع يدك وتحكي
+
+110
+00:09:08,820 --> 00:09:12,940
+يعني مثلا في البيت رحت رجعت للموضوع وفي نقطة
+
+111
+00:09:12,940 --> 00:09:16,180
+نشوبها والله إيجاتي والله هذا اللي اتفنن فيه هذا
+
+112
+00:09:16,180 --> 00:09:18,640
+الكذا هذا فتعطيني indication أن أنت you are
+
+113
+00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,440
+involving in the process of education you are not
+
+114
+00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:25,620
+away from the class هذا اسمه participation هذا اسمه
+
+115
+00:09:25,620 --> 00:09:28,480
+.. هذا اسمه participation يعني مش شرط أنه أرفع
+
+116
+00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:33,820
+يدي وأنا يعني أجاوب وكذا كويس هذا يعني خلاني
+
+117
+00:09:33,820 --> 00:09:38,360
+أحكي positive participation is fine but we have to
+
+118
+00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:42,020
+know the participation is to follow up to track
+
+119
+00:09:42,020 --> 00:09:45,700
+the classes and to ask questions related to the
+
+120
+00:09:45,700 --> 00:09:49,820
+classes okay so the thing is here in the
+
+121
+00:09:49,820 --> 00:09:54,700
+participation is to read what is going on in the
+
+122
+00:09:54,700 --> 00:09:59,620
+class and when you go home just read this text
+
+123
+00:09:59,620 --> 00:10:03,120
+book I don't ask you to read other things just
+
+124
+00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:07,080
+focus on this understand this for the highly
+
+125
+00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,680
+qualified students so there are other materials so
+
+126
+00:10:10,680 --> 00:10:15,040
+they can go back to these materials but again you
+
+127
+00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,920
+are not asking for
+
+128
+00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:24,950
+other materials what you can't it's just committed 
+
+129
+00:10:24,950 --> 00:10:29,790
+with this textbook maybe
+
+130
+00:10:29,790 --> 00:10:32,810
+you .. when you are reading you stuck with a
+
+131
+00:10:32,810 --> 00:10:38,310
+particular abbreviation or some issues in the book
+
+132
+00:10:38,310 --> 00:10:43,730
+you go back and you make them to the office hours
+
+133
+00:10:43,730 --> 00:10:47,610
+and ask them about it this is a practice test so
+
+134
+00:10:47,610 --> 00:10:49,730
+this is very important to show me that you
+
+135
+00:10:49,730 --> 00:10:53,520
+understand and don't tell me I don't understand
+
+136
+00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:57,360
+tell me that I don't understand this particular
+
+137
+00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:02,540
+problem okay and then the discussion between me
+
+138
+00:11:02,540 --> 00:11:06,140
+and you is growing up and then at the end of the
+
+139
+00:11:06,140 --> 00:11:10,040
+meeting we can summarize whether you understand or
+
+140
+00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:14,180
+not so this is the participation and attendance so
+
+141
+00:11:14,180 --> 00:11:17,140
+be careful for these two things it is not in your
+
+142
+00:11:17,140 --> 00:11:19,140
+pocket okay
+
+143
+00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:24,520
+for reports report and assignments I will ask you
+
+144
+00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:30,660
+to write two reports to
+
+145
+00:11:30,660 --> 00:11:33,760
+be honest with you before writing the assignments
+
+146
+00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:38,860
+I will give you like a sample of assignments some
+
+147
+00:11:38,860 --> 00:11:43,980
+students with marks less than 10 and some students
+
+148
+00:11:43,980 --> 00:11:47,640
+with 20 just to compare between the two different
+
+149
+00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:51,670
+students to show how you write your assignments and
+
+150
+00:11:51,670 --> 00:11:54,190
+I will show you how you organize your assignments
+
+151
+00:11:54,190 --> 00:12:00,130
+you try to avoid the plagiarism حاولوا تتجنبوا ال
+
+152
+00:12:00,130 --> 00:12:04,670
+plagiarism حاولوا 
+
+153
+00:12:04,670 --> 00:12:06,890
+تتجنبوا ال plagiarism ال plagiarism يعني ال fully
+
+154
+00:12:06,890 --> 00:12:13,310
+unpaid يعني ان احنا ناخد من الكتب و ناخد بس و we
+
+155
+00:12:13,310 --> 00:12:17,430
+don't understand ممكن ان تقرأوا الموضوع في ال
+
+156
+00:12:17,430 --> 00:12:22,870
+report تفهموا الموضوع و حسب الفهم تبعك تكتبوا الموضوع
+
+157
+00:12:22,870 --> 00:12:27,310
+I don't mind to do this لكن إذا احنا بيجي الكوبي و
+
+158
+00:12:27,310 --> 00:12:32,130
+نحطها best أنا يعني سهل أعرف الكلام يعني okay في
+
+159
+00:12:32,130 --> 00:12:35,850
+عندنا برنامج اسمه turnitin هذا turnitin بنحطه في
+
+160
+00:12:35,850 --> 00:12:41,490
+الجهاز بيظهر لكل من وين كل إشي جيبتيه so be
+
+161
+00:12:41,490 --> 00:12:45,750
+careful with this حلوات أخرى شفناها في بعض ال
+
+162
+00:12:45,750 --> 00:12:48,110
+assignments أن واحدة تكتب assignment و ثلاثة بيعملوا
+
+163
+00:12:48,110 --> 00:12:53,070
+copy عنها Assuming that the teachers are not
+
+164
+00:12:53,070 --> 00:12:56,490
+reading the assignments So this is why I'm telling
+
+165
+00:12:56,490 --> 00:13:01,430
+you this is not in your pocket because you assume
+
+166
+00:13:01,430 --> 00:13:04,250
+that your teacher is not reading your assignments
+
+167
+00:13:05,410 --> 00:13:08,530
+So this is very interesting I'm reading every word
+
+168
+00:13:08,530 --> 00:13:11,050
+you are writing because sometimes I get benefit
+
+169
+00:13:11,050 --> 00:13:14,250
+from your writing فهو ممكن تجيبوا شغلات أنا
+
+170
+00:13:14,250 --> 00:13:21,670
+ما بعرفهاش فأنا بقرا بستفيد okay فاتخلوش
+
+171
+00:13:21,670 --> 00:13:26,070
+القصة I made to the last minute to the last minute
+
+172
+00:13:26,070 --> 00:13:30,490
+معناه تلعبوا أنه مش هتاخدوا feedback و عادة إحنا هيك
+
+173
+00:13:30,490 --> 00:13:35,550
+نسويها مثلا عندي ال assignment لازم نسلمه و نحترمه
+
+174
+00:13:35,550 --> 00:13:42,290
+مثلا بيه خمسة عشر أربع من ستة أربع بنيجي الشباب
+
+175
+00:13:42,290 --> 00:13:46,070
+و البنات بيجيوا لعند تلاتة عشر أربعة أو عشرين من 
+
+176
+00:13:46,070 --> 00:13:50,750
+هاتوا ال assignment و انتوا okay و يلا submit و
+
+177
+00:13:50,750 --> 00:13:52,990
+بالأخير إنه بناخد ثمانية من عشرة ثمانية من عشرة
+
+178
+00:13:52,990 --> 00:13:56,550
+ثمانية و بنيجي بقى الأستاذ أو إيش إيش أنا كتبته ثلاثة
+
+179
+00:13:56,550 --> 00:14:02,050
+ثلاثة ديام و أنا ب .. بشتغل مع صحفيتي و .. و هيك هذا
+
+180
+00:14:02,050 --> 00:14:06,750
+كلام مفروض تشتغلوا في ال assignments بطريقة صحيحة زي
+
+181
+00:14:06,750 --> 00:14:10,550
+ما أنا بقدر إمكانياتكم تحكمتهم تمام؟ انت تشتغل في
+
+182
+00:14:10,550 --> 00:14:12,630
+.. لما تبعتوا ال submission لل assignments تمام؟
+
+183
+00:14:12,630 --> 00:14:16,530
+تحترموا ان ال assignments هذا يعني .. بتبقى عشان
+
+184
+00:14:16,530 --> 00:14:22,390
+أحكي high quality فيه الأقل إنه is readable تمام؟
+
+185
+00:14:22,390 --> 00:14:26,570
+ال assignments شو .. شو المطلوب فيه؟ مطلوب ال
+
+186
+00:14:26,570 --> 00:14:31,080
+assignments لأن الموضوع إن investment إذا تفتحوا
+
+187
+00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:34,440
+فيه إنه مثلا 10 شطر تفتحوا شطر منهم سبعة تفتحوا
+
+188
+00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:38,960
+الموضوع منهم تفتحوا حوار الموضوع okay for instance
+
+189
+00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:43,260
+the first chapter is talking about the investment
+
+190
+00:14:43,260 --> 00:14:47,420
+environment okay so the investment environment
+
+191
+00:14:47,420 --> 00:14:51,440
+includes many assets for instance if we talk about
+
+192
+00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:57,040
+the financial assets and the real assets you can
+
+193
+00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:58,000
+talk about real assets
+
+194
+00:15:00,940 --> 00:15:03,760
+Okay, real assets for instance you talk about the
+
+195
+00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,720
+mortgages, you talk about fixed assets, investment
+
+196
+00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,080
+in fixed assets, buildings, machines, equipment,
+
+197
+00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:14,000
+this is real assets, so you focus your assignment
+
+198
+00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,180
+on the real assets, other students focus the
+
+199
+00:15:17,180 --> 00:15:20,700
+assignment on the financial assets, others they
+
+200
+00:15:20,700 --> 00:15:23,640
+compare between the financial assets and the real
+
+201
+00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,960
+assets I don't mind to write your assignment with
+
+202
+00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:31,480
+a group, up to three students يعني أنا بقى أنا عايز
+
+203
+00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,440
+إن أنت تكتبوا ال assignments اللي عايشينهم من خلال
+
+204
+00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:41,040
+ثلاثة .. ثلاثة طالبات up to يعني ما يكونش أكثر up to
+
+205
+00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:45,060
+three students طبعا up to three students الثلاث
+
+206
+00:15:45,060 --> 00:15:48,060
+طالبات هم هيشتغلوا في ال .. كل واحدة هتاخد جزء في
+
+207
+00:15:48,060 --> 00:15:50,420
+ال .. في ال assignments و تكتب فيه يعني ما ينفعش إن
+
+208
+00:15:50,420 --> 00:15:54,730
+أنت تحددش و تتحمل كل .. فأنا بدي أشوف مثلا you
+
+209
+00:15:54,730 --> 00:15:57,710
+assign to the three parts this part for x this
+
+210
+00:15:57,710 --> 00:16:02,370
+part for y and the last one is for z فلما نيجي
+
+211
+00:16:02,370 --> 00:16:06,270
+نعمل تحليل نعمل و نتأكد إن ال three students are
+
+212
+00:16:06,270 --> 00:16:09,250
+you and me هذا مثلا for instance about the
+
+213
+00:16:09,250 --> 00:16:13,890
+investment environments if you are interested to
+
+214
+00:16:13,890 --> 00:16:19,250
+just select one of the chapters and write down
+
+215
+00:16:19,250 --> 00:16:23,450
+your assignments regarding the preferences at the
+
+216
+00:16:23,450 --> 00:16:26,030
+end of each chapter you have a lot of references
+
+217
+00:16:26,030 --> 00:16:31,370
+if you have problems in getting the references
+
+218
+00:16:31,370 --> 00:16:33,050
+just contact me
+
+219
+00:16:38,530 --> 00:16:42,150
+the first five minutes in the .. in each meeting
+
+220
+00:16:42,150 --> 00:16:45,310
+just we discussed if the students has have problems
+
+221
+00:16:45,310 --> 00:16:47,830
+in the .. in the assignments or in the
+
+222
+00:16:47,830 --> 00:16:50,510
+previous meetings we summarize the previous
+
+223
+00:16:50,510 --> 00:16:53,990
+meeting and integrate you in the .. in the current
+
+224
+00:16:53,990 --> 00:16:59,270
+meetings okay so don't hesitate to .. to talk
+
+225
+00:16:59,270 --> 00:17:02,990
+about your assignment to talk about some issues
+
+226
+00:17:02,990 --> 00:17:06,910
+related to the previous meetings okay just to ..
+
+227
+00:17:06,910 --> 00:17:08,050
+to ensure that you understand
+
+228
+00:17:31,700 --> 00:17:36,280
+ما تنزعجوش كتير هأجيب sample of assignments
+
+229
+00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:42,190
+هأورّجيكم إياه و أجيب لكم إنه طبعا مش هنورّيكم الأسماء
+
+230
+00:17:42,190 --> 00:17:48,590
+طبعا لأن هذا ethics فهنشوف لكم طلاب رسبوا
+
+231
+00:17:48,590 --> 00:17:51,650
+بال assignment تبعهم و طلاب نجحوا بال assignment
+
+232
+00:17:51,650 --> 00:17:56,190
+تبعهم هتشوفوا ال .. ال big gap بين هدول اللي
+
+233
+00:17:56,190 --> 00:17:59,330
+نجحوا بين هدول اللي رسبوا بال assignment and then
+
+234
+00:17:59,330 --> 00:18:01,610
+you decide whether you are in this group or in
+
+235
+00:18:01,610 --> 00:18:06,410
+this group اه فلازم أنتو تقرروا أنتوا بتنجحوا بال
+
+236
+00:18:06,410 --> 00:18:10,070
+assignment ولا لأ بس أنا بتصور إنه يعني ليش تضيعوا
+
+237
+00:18:10,070 --> 00:18:12,950
+عليكم فرصة الثلاثين درجة هدول هيك البلاش جايين
+
+238
+00:18:12,950 --> 00:18:19,850
+سهلين و خاصة إنه هذا مش exam إنه يعني .. يعني you
+
+239
+00:18:19,850 --> 00:18:23,550
+have now about six weeks or let's say sixteen
+
+240
+00:18:23,550 --> 00:18:28,490
+weeks to write down two simple assignments for
+
+241
+00:18:28,490 --> 00:18:32,770
+each assignment three thousand words let's say 2500
+
+242
+00:18:32,770 --> 00:18:38,150
+words for each assignment لكل واحد ناخد 2500 كلمة
+
+243
+00:18:38,150 --> 00:18:44,650
+2500 كلمة يعني دول هم 9 صفحات 9 صفحات كل صفحة
+
+244
+00:18:44,650 --> 00:18:50,730
+250 كلمة طبعا هأورّيكم كيف how we organize
+
+245
+00:18:50,730 --> 00:18:54,950
+assignments هتجدوا بس أنتوا بتكتبوا ست صفحات جد
+
+246
+00:18:54,950 --> 00:18:57,210
+لأن ال introduction هتاخد مننا صفحة و ال
+
+247
+00:18:57,210 --> 00:18:59,770
+conclusion هتاخد مننا صفحة و ال references هتاخد
+
+248
+00:18:59,770 --> 00:19:04,160
+مننا صفحة و هي خلصنا ال assignment لأ لأ احنا هنتفق
+
+249
+00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:10,240
+على .. هنتفق على ال .. هنتفق على شكل ال assignments بحيث
+
+250
+00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:15,800
+إن احنا we are seeking equality احنا we are seeking 
+
+251
+00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,440
+seeking equality يعني الـ equality معناه جداً أنه 
+
+252
+00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,920
+احنا كلنا مع بعض هيك الأساليب تبعتنا بدأت تكون الـ
+
+253
+00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:28,100
+style متشابه يعني في عنا table of contents شكل 
+
+254
+00:19:28,100 --> 00:19:32,360
+الخط يكون معين، الـ space، الـ field lines مثلاً الـ
+
+255
+00:19:32,360 --> 00:19:34,780
+double space يكون، الـ margin يكون مرّسّم الـ
+
+256
+00:19:34,780 --> 00:19:38,120
+differences، الـ heating و الـ sub heating كل هذا 
+
+257
+00:19:38,120 --> 00:19:42,340
+بيكون ايش احنا نرسمه لحيث لما احنا نيجي نعمل خدمة 
+
+258
+00:19:42,340 --> 00:19:47,980
+للـ assignments اللي فيها ده فيه quality لإن بكرا 
+
+259
+00:19:47,980 --> 00:19:54,900
+انتوا بتروحوا على الـ business تبعكم يعني بأظن أنه
+
+260
+00:19:54,900 --> 00:19:59,830
+ضروري أنه how to write a report، إنه احنا الـ report
+
+261
+00:19:59,830 --> 00:20:04,470
+ضروري يكون مرّسّم، مصحّح حيث أنه يعطي indication لـ
+
+262
+00:20:04,470 --> 00:20:08,270
+your personality and your background as well فهذا 
+
+263
+00:20:08,270 --> 00:20:11,230
+is important for you to know how to write a proper
+
+264
+00:20:11,230 --> 00:20:16,550
+report not just .. okay .. just أي حاجة بأي موضوع
+
+265
+00:20:16,550 --> 00:20:22,370
+يجيب أي نتيجة، هذا كلام اجتماعي طبعاً؟ ايه عندكم
+
+266
+00:20:22,370 --> 00:20:27,930
+حاجة؟ okay زناد الورق؟ ماشي معانا بالخطب؟
+
+267
+00:20:30,870 --> 00:20:35,890
+طيب طبعاً هذا بالنسبة للرباط و الـ assignments بالـ
+
+268
+00:20:35,890 --> 00:20:42,010
+final exam مش .. يعني مش زي الـ mid طبعاً احنا هنجمع
+
+269
+00:20:42,010 --> 00:20:45,810
+الـ .. زي الـ bar مع الـ final يصير تكتة هنجمع الـ mid
+
+270
+00:20:45,810 --> 00:20:51,310
+مع الـ .. مع الـ attendance يصير 40 يصير هنا 40 لأ 60
+
+271
+00:20:51,310 --> 00:20:54,690
+يعني بيكون عندكم على درجتهم بالـ .. بالـ mid لأن الـ
+
+272
+00:20:54,690 --> 00:20:58,310
+mid هو عبارة عن activities أنت بتشتغلوا عليها فـ 40
+
+273
+00:20:58,310 --> 00:21:04,510
+to 60 المجموع تبقى عمونا هنفسه okay هذا بالنسبة لـ
+
+274
+00:21:04,510 --> 00:21:10,450
+الـ .. الـ .. how we manage our meetings في حد عنده
+
+275
+00:21:10,450 --> 00:21:20,220
+سؤال؟ اه؟ كم سنة؟ كده عامة ليه؟ كده عامة بعرفش هل
+
+276
+00:21:20,220 --> 00:21:24,980
+هي prerequisite يعني هل مطلب صالح؟ سؤال هل هي مطلب 
+
+277
+00:21:24,980 --> 00:21:28,880
+صالح من المادة؟ مش مطلب صالح، بس طيب، بيبقى كتير،
+
+278
+00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,480
+بس طبعاً في extra effort مش أكتر يعني مثلاً أعطيكي
+
+279
+00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:37,320
+مثال، لما أجي أنا أحكي مثلاً الـ risk and return هذه
+
+280
+00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,680
+الـ risk and return مخلينها بالإدارة المالية okay؟
+
+281
+00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,240
+بتوع الإدارة المالية، لما نيجي نحكي على الـ spots،
+
+282
+00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,000
+لما نيجي نحكي على الـ bonds، هذه بتوع الإدارة 
+
+283
+00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,340
+المالية أصلاً مخلينها فإنه احنا هنضطر إذا أنت مش
+
+284
+00:21:50,340 --> 00:21:54,720
+ماخدها أو إذا كان الـ majority مش ماخدين الإدارة 
+
+285
+00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,460
+المالية هضطر أنه أنا أرجع للإدارة المالية و
+
+286
+00:21:57,460 --> 00:22:02,680
+أشرحكم الإدارة المالية and we waste our time فايش 
+
+287
+00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:06,140
+أنا بسوي معاكي؟ ايش ممكن تسوي معاكي حتى مع
+
+288
+00:22:06,140 --> 00:22:10,160
+الطالبات اللي مش ماخدين الإدارة المالية؟ يعني إذا 
+
+289
+00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:14,740
+مر علينا موضوع مش واضح ممكن يعني أهديكي إلى كتاب
+
+290
+00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:19,060
+نحكيلك إن هذا الكتاب وضح بعض المفاهيم، بعطيك شوية
+
+291
+00:22:19,060 --> 00:22:24,800
+شرح عن الموضوع، لكن بالآخر بدك ترجع للكتاب و تقرأ
+
+292
+00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:29,180
+ايه الإدارة المالية، لأنه احنا هنا in distance، مش
+
+293
+00:22:29,180 --> 00:22:32,780
+هيكون الأمر صعب كتير، هيكون الـ .. كم واحدة مش
+
+294
+00:22:32,780 --> 00:22:39,130
+ماخدة إدارة مالية، خمسة يعني خمسة من خمسة وأربعين
+
+295
+00:22:39,130 --> 00:22:43,950
+إن شاء الله ما فيكوا مشكلة كمان إذا حسيت كمان شوي
+
+296
+00:22:43,950 --> 00:22:47,530
+الأمور صعبة ممكن أنتو الخمسة تيجوا هيك بأوقات
+
+297
+00:22:47,530 --> 00:22:52,490
+الفراغ الأكاديمي أو أوقات الـ .. هذا تفكروا ايش 
+
+298
+00:22:52,490 --> 00:22:57,470
+موضوع كنتوا تحكوا فيه و نشرح لكم طبعاً؟ هذا من خلال
+
+299
+00:22:57,470 --> 00:23:05,150
+الـ .. الـ final forty هيك يكون احنا خلصنا الموضوع
+
+300
+00:23:05,150 --> 00:23:05,530
+تبعنا
+
+301
+00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:13,520
+خلّينا نقرّر كلام هذا، مادة النهائي بتكون مادة
+
+302
+00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:18,820
+غنية، المشكلة وين؟ المشكلة بالـ .. بالـ investment و
+
+303
+00:23:18,820 --> 00:23:22,900
+الـ financial management هي زي الرياضيات، يعني
+
+304
+00:23:22,900 --> 00:23:26,360
+موضوع بالـ .. آخر chapter مثلاً احنا بنحكي bond
+
+305
+00:23:26,360 --> 00:23:30,800
+valuation، تقييم السنة ده، الـ bond valuation ممكن
+
+306
+00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,320
+يكون جزء منها وضبط في chapter two و هي موجودة في
+
+307
+00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:37,560
+chapter seven فإذا أنت مش فاهم الـ chapter 2 و مش
+
+308
+00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:43,780
+هتجاوب الـ chapter 7 فعشان كده أنا يعني ما فيش عندي
+
+309
+00:23:43,780 --> 00:23:47,380
+جواب نهائي أن أحكيلك اه ولا لأ ليش لإنه issue
+
+310
+00:23:47,380 --> 00:23:52,020
+مرتبط كله متداخل في بعضه لكن theoretically yes
+
+311
+00:23:52,020 --> 00:23:56,800
+نظرياً yes بس من ناحية العملية بتتعامل مع الأسئلة و
+
+312
+00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,620
+الإجابات هتجد أنه أنت you cannot handle the
+
+313
+00:23:59,620 --> 00:24:02,080
+question if you don't have experience on the
+
+314
+00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:15,700
+previous chapters فنظرياً 
+
+315
+00:24:15,700 --> 00:24:23,100
+كلام صحيح لكن عملياً كلام مش صحيح لا ما حكيناها ما حكنقش
+
+316
+00:24:23,100 --> 00:24:26,140
+لا لسه يعني ما هو أنتو تيجي تحكي على .. خلينينا
+
+317
+00:24:26,140 --> 00:24:31,920
+نجرّب شوفوا خلينينا احنا نتعامل بالـ .. يعني اه
+
+318
+00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,780
+نتعامل نشوف كيف تتعاملوا أنتو مع الـ .. مع الأسئلة
+
+319
+00:24:35,780 --> 00:24:39,080
+كيف تتعاملوا مع الشرح و حكينا يا ما تخجلوش ارفعوا
+
+320
+00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:43,960
+أيديكم و اسألوا يعني إذا ما فهمتوش بالعربي أنا
+
+321
+00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:45,920
+فاهمكم بالإنجليزي إذا ما فهمتوش بالإنجليزي أنا
+
+322
+00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,940
+فاهمكم بالعربي اه يعني على الجانب ايه اللي احنا
+
+323
+00:24:49,940 --> 00:24:50,380
+شغلين
+
+324
+00:24:54,420 --> 00:24:59,700
+احنا متفاهمين باللغة
+
+325
+00:24:59,700 --> 00:25:09,360
+هادى ولا باللغة هادى؟ في حد عنده سؤال؟
+
+326
+00:25:10,850 --> 00:25:14,550
+و الله أنا مش كتير في الموضوع الصح الموضوع و الـ
+
+327
+00:25:14,550 --> 00:25:17,730
+و الـ market choice مش كتير احنا .. و احنا مش شاهدين
+
+328
+00:25:17,730 --> 00:25:21,750
+احنا .. يعني .. يعني إذا اضطرينا .. إذا اضطرينا ..
+
+329
+00:25:21,750 --> 00:25:26,250
+المهم احنا الامتحان تركيبته اتقيس مهارات الطالب، 
+
+330
+00:25:26,250 --> 00:25:29,670
+هذا الـ .. هذا المهم، المهارات المختلفة بتاعة
+
+331
+00:25:29,670 --> 00:25:38,000
+الطالب أكيد .. أكيد هن .. هنعطيكم أسئلة و هي
+
+332
+00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:42,060
+الأسئلة اللي .. لكن المشكلة وين أنه احنا يعني مثلاً
+
+333
+00:25:42,060 --> 00:25:45,260
+الـ final بتاع الفصل السادس تبع الإدارة المالية
+
+334
+00:25:45,260 --> 00:25:50,340
+مثلاً كان hundred percent في الكتاب و للأسف الشديد
+
+335
+00:25:50,340 --> 00:25:55,440
+يعني مش كتير اتعاملوا معاه بشكل صحيح رغم أن هم
+
+336
+00:25:55,440 --> 00:26:01,060
+الكتاب فـ .. هذا أنتو بتقرروا فيه و مع بعض مقرّرين
+
+337
+00:26:01,060 --> 00:26:05,680
+نشوف هل .. فاكروش في الامتحان يعني في اللحظة هذه
+
+338
+00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:10,180
+خليني أفكر في الـ .. اه؟ خليني أشوف الـ .. الـ ..
+
+339
+00:26:10,180 --> 00:26:12,740
+العمادة ايش قرّروا في الموضوع، رئيس القسم هو قرّر
+
+340
+00:26:12,740 --> 00:26:18,360
+خلاص يعني تمت .. التوافق على الـ .. الـ discussion
+
+341
+00:26:18,360 --> 00:26:24,600
+بس هلّأ ضايل اللحظة متى to run the discussion الـ ..
+
+342
+00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,040
+الـ .. العشر درجات بتاعة الـ .. حسب الفصل فات، العشر
+
+343
+00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,000
+درجات بتاعة الـ participation و الـ attendance كانت
+
+344
+00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:36,000
+من خلال الـ discussion، كان يكون عندك الـ discussion
+
+345
+00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,640
+لأنه هي أكثر شيء أنت face to face with the tutor
+
+346
+00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:45,600
+بالنسبة للبنات اللي إجوا متأخرين، حد عنده سؤال؟
+
+347
+00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:50,480
+اه؟ أنا كتير يعني مبسوط أن الـ .. الـ mobiles و
+
+348
+00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,480
+الهاتف مش شايفينها، فعلاً يعني it's good news
+
+349
+00:26:55,540 --> 00:27:02,660
+محنانيين برضه الناس ليه؟ الـ .. الشاطر الأول اللي
+
+350
+00:27:02,660 --> 00:27:05,020
+هو هنحكي بالـ .. the investment .. investment
+
+351
+00:27:05,020 --> 00:27:09,740
+environments اللي هو البيئة الاستثمارية طبعاً في حد 
+
+352
+00:27:09,740 --> 00:27:14,600
+يعني صادقاً عنده معرفة what it means investment
+
+353
+00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:22,840
+environments investment environments صوت
+
+354
+00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:27,780
+analysis okay يعني strength, weaknesses,
+
+355
+00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,580
+opportunities and threats this is in this
+
+356
+00:27:31,580 --> 00:27:36,960
+environment okay we may accept this swat is using
+
+357
+00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:41,730
+to evaluate Okay, so we evaluate things, we use
+
+358
+00:27:41,730 --> 00:27:45,550
+thought analysis to see whether you are investing
+
+359
+00:27:45,550 --> 00:27:50,350
+in the projects or not is a part of the investment
+
+360
+00:27:50,350 --> 00:27:54,290
+environment هي جزء من investment environment but
+
+361
+00:27:54,290 --> 00:27:58,010
+it is not investment environment يعني كلامك صحيح
+
+362
+00:27:58,010 --> 00:28:06,490
+بس مش كتير okay يعني
+
+363
+00:28:06,490 --> 00:28:09,720
+خلينا نفكّر investment environment لو جينا احنا
+
+364
+00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:15,540
+حكينا حقاً .. لو جينا حكينا غزة ايش الـ environment
+
+365
+00:28:15,540 --> 00:28:18,580
+اللي عايزنا .. لو احنا قررنا what is the
+
+366
+00:28:18,580 --> 00:28:23,580
+environment in Gaza؟ شو هي؟ خلينا نسمع آراء أخرى
+
+367
+00:28:23,580 --> 00:28:26,460
+.. أخرى .. شوف الـ fanarts الورا .. ايش رأيكم؟
+
+368
+00:28:30,700 --> 00:28:33,220
+البيئة الاستثمارية ايش رأيك؟ يعني لو ايجي نحكينا
+
+369
+00:28:33,220 --> 00:28:37,640
+ايه جهة لقاء صح تحكولك؟ what is your opinion on
+
+370
+00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,240
+the investment environments in Gaza؟ يعني شو رأيك
+
+371
+00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,520
+من البيئة الاستثمارية في غزة؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+372
+00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,780
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+373
+00:28:45,780 --> 00:28:46,120
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+374
+00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:50,280
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+375
+00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:53,740
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة 
+
+376
+00:28:53,740 --> 00:28:58,590
+الاستثمارية؟ ما هي بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ما بال
+
+377
+00:28:58,590 --> 00:29:03,090
+knowledge و بال experience سؤال بسيط شو رأيكم
+
+378
+00:29:03,090 --> 00:29:06,690
+بالاستثمارات أو بال .. الـ VL استثمارية بنفسك خليني
+
+379
+00:29:06,690 --> 00:29:09,750
+أشوف أيّ أكثر شيء استثمار بفرق أنه صارت اللي في
+
+380
+00:29:09,750 --> 00:29:16,990
+مباني السكنية أيّه؟ أيّه استثماري؟ real estate أيّه
+
+381
+00:29:16,990 --> 00:29:21,430
+اللي هي حاجته اسمه real estate؟ yes okay صح كلامي
+
+382
+00:29:21,430 --> 00:29:27,490
+مظبوط إذا جزء من الـ VL استثمارية هو real estate
+
+383
+00:29:29,020 --> 00:29:34,080
+بظبط طيب الـ infrastructure بتحكي، هل هو
+
+384
+00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:40,600
+investment؟ بقى بنقرر، هل هو investment؟ آه بقى
+
+385
+00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,780
+بنقرر what is investment and what is non
+
+386
+00:29:42,780 --> 00:29:48,180
+-investment آه it's
+
+387
+00:29:48,180 --> 00:29:55,140
+too hard or risk because we are part of country in
+
+388
+00:29:55,140 --> 00:29:56,600
+occupation، it's not easy
+
+389
+00:29:59,210 --> 00:30:03,210
+Okay so when you talk about investment environment
+
+390
+00:30:03,210 --> 00:30:08,810
+you talk about risk okay that's that's fine أيش
+
+391
+00:30:08,810 --> 00:30:15,670
+كمان خلينا نسمع البنات اللي قدام investment
+
+392
+00:30:15,670 --> 00:30:20,390
+environment هاي الكلام صحيح يعني لما احنا when we
+
+393
+00:30:20,390 --> 00:30:25,030
+talk about investment environments we talk about
+
+394
+00:30:26,350 --> 00:30:29,630
+the securities or the .. we talk about different
+
+395
+00:30:29,630 --> 00:30:33,830
+types of investments so real estate is one of the
+
+396
+00:30:33,830 --> 00:30:40,890
+investment types real estate واحدة منهم بعد هيك
+
+397
+00:30:40,890 --> 00:30:45,550
+إيش هم الـ .. الـ risk this is the characteristics
+
+398
+00:30:45,550 --> 00:30:49,530
+of the investments هاي مواصفات أو نحكي عن خصائص
+
+399
+00:30:49,530 --> 00:30:54,220
+الاستثمار risk وإيش كمان عكس الـ risk، عكس الـ
+
+400
+00:30:54,220 --> 00:30:58,000
+risk profits بس بالـ investment ما بنحكي profits
+
+401
+00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:05,340
+بنحكي return okay بنحكي return okay so we have
+
+402
+00:31:05,340 --> 00:31:09,840
+risk and we have return إذا في عندنا الـ risk أيش
+
+403
+00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:13,160
+معناها مخاطر و return عائد طبعا ليش احنا
+
+404
+00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,960
+ما حكيناهاش profits يعني حكت الأخت عن الـ profits
+
+405
+00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,920
+ليش احنا ما حكينا عنها
+
+406
+00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:58,710
+The investors focusing on the return بي .. بيركزوا 
+
+407
+00:31:58,710 --> 00:32:00,810
+على الـ return ما بيركزوا على الـ profits خلينا نشوف
+
+408
+00:32:00,810 --> 00:32:04,970
+شيء عملي الـ .. أيش الفرق بين الـ return و الـ profits
+
+409
+00:32:04,970 --> 00:32:09,470
+شيء بسيط لو احنا عندنا project A و project B
+
+410
+00:32:09,470 --> 00:32:16,910
+project A و project B project A ربح ألف دولار و
+
+411
+00:32:16,910 --> 00:32:21,410
+project B ربح ألف دولار طب أيّه أحسن؟ A و لا B؟ أنا
+
+412
+00:32:21,410 --> 00:32:25,070
+profits أيّه
+
+413
+00:32:25,070 --> 00:32:29,500
+أحسن؟ A و لا B؟ we are in difference, in difference
+
+414
+00:32:29,500 --> 00:32:34,360
+يعني مش هناخد قرار لأن both of them have equally
+
+415
+00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:39,800
+profits نفس الربح طيب مثلها الآخر لو هما نفس a و b
+
+416
+00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:46,380
+أحد عشر ألف خليني نطلع فوق عشان الـ .. عشان احنا
+
+417
+00:32:46,380 --> 00:32:51,060
+نصحح المفهوم profits و return لو a و b هذا ربح ألف
+
+418
+00:32:51,060 --> 00:32:56,120
+و هذا ربح عشر آلاف still we are talking about
+
+419
+00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,820
+profit which you prefer to invest in A or in B
+
+420
+00:32:58,820 --> 00:33:05,660
+hundred percent in B هنعمل استثمار في B طب نشوف
+
+421
+00:33:05,660 --> 00:33:08,800
+how we change our minds when we consider the
+
+422
+00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:14,340
+return كيف احنا هنغير موضوعنا both of them are
+
+423
+00:33:14,340 --> 00:33:17,140
+profits هذه ألف دولار و هذه عشر آلاف دولار احنا
+
+424
+00:33:17,140 --> 00:33:21,900
+ربحنا في A ألف و ربحنا في B عشر آلاف بس احنا
+
+425
+00:33:21,900 --> 00:33:26,840
+هنخلينا نقرر أنّه why we are not focusing on the
+
+426
+00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:32,440
+profit and we focus on the return احنا ما بنركزش
+
+427
+00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,480
+على الربح because the profit is misleading عارفين ليش
+
+428
+00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:42,460
+عامل misleading misleading يعني مضلل الربح مضلل
+
+429
+00:33:42,460 --> 00:33:47,420
+misleading but the return is accurate and give you
+
+430
+00:33:47,420 --> 00:33:51,700
+indication whether to invest or not خليني أشوف، لو
+
+431
+00:33:51,700 --> 00:33:54,320
+أجينا .. أنا أعطيكم معلومات، highly profit، صبّ ..
+
+432
+00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,960
+احنا لازم .. زي ما احنا بنربح، لازم نشوف كم احنا
+
+433
+00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:02,600
+استثمرنا، عشان نقرر أن احنا العقل .. العقل استثمر،
+
+434
+00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:09,040
+لو أجينا احنا هنا الـ investments،
+
+435
+00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:15,600
+احنا هنا دفعنا ميد .. نيجي نحكي مثلاً، دفعنا five
+
+436
+00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,060
+thousand dollar، عملنا investments
+
+437
+00:34:20,980 --> 00:34:25,860
+و هنا استثمرنا two million أو نحكي one million
+
+438
+00:34:25,860 --> 00:34:33,840
+okay we invest one million we get ten thousand
+
+439
+00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:38,480
+dollar we invest five thousand dollar we get one
+
+440
+00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:43,000
+thousand هيبقى نحسّ بشغلة اسمها الـ return الـ return
+
+441
+00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,700
+بيخصّوه في عدة وسائل خلينا بس مبدئياً return on
+
+442
+00:34:45,700 --> 00:34:50,370
+investment نخسر الـ profit على الـ investment دي
+
+443
+00:34:50,370 --> 00:34:57,830
+الألف تقسيم خمس آلاف okay هذا بنخسر العشر آلاف على
+
+444
+00:34:57,830 --> 00:35:02,130
+المليون يعني أيش معناه الكلام هذا الرجال معه
+
+445
+00:35:02,130 --> 00:35:07,050
+مليون دولار ربح عشر آلاف دولار يعني حطّ المليون
+
+446
+00:35:07,050 --> 00:35:10,510
+دولار تبعته في اشتراك عام المبنى مثلاً مليون دولار
+
+447
+00:35:10,510 --> 00:35:14,930
+عام المبنى المبنى ربح فيه عشر آلاف دولار واحد ثاني
+
+448
+00:35:14,930 --> 00:35:18,170
+معه خمس آلاف دولار شاطر عمل ألف دولار من ورا
+
+449
+00:35:18,170 --> 00:35:22,710
+هالشغلة فبنشوف شو العائد على هذا و عائد على هذا هذا
+
+450
+00:35:22,710 --> 00:35:25,490
+العائد تبقى كم؟ عشرين في المئة صح؟ ألف على خمس
+
+451
+00:35:25,490 --> 00:35:33,190
+آلاف كم؟ عشرين في المئة هذا العشر آلاف على مليون
+
+452
+00:35:33,190 --> 00:35:37,450
+كم؟ واحد بالـ .. بالمئة واحد في المئة، مظبوط؟
+
+453
+00:35:37,450 --> 00:35:41,790
+اعملوها، شوفوها واحد في المئة؟ واحد في المئة طب
+
+454
+00:35:41,790 --> 00:35:46,300
+إذا هذا معناه كلام هذا الـ twenty percent يعني حطّ
+
+455
+00:35:46,300 --> 00:35:50,400
+دولار واحد في المشروع جاب له عشرين cents هذا حطّ
+
+456
+00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:56,800
+دولار واحد في المشروع حطّه واحد من عشرة cents إذا
+
+457
+00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:01,920
+أيّه أحسن مثال بسيط شوف الـ chefs تبع الأولاد الصغار
+
+458
+00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:07,060
+و كيس الطحين مثال بسيط التاجر مثلاً بكيس الطحين ممكن
+
+459
+00:36:07,060 --> 00:36:14,470
+يربح شاكل كم دفع؟ دفع سبعين شاكل عشان يجيب شاكل من
+
+460
+00:36:14,470 --> 00:36:18,910
+كيس طحين تشوفوا الاستثمار كيف لكن في chips تبع
+
+461
+00:36:18,910 --> 00:36:24,470
+الأطفال ممكن هو دفع ثلاثين أجورا عامل عشرين أجورا
+
+462
+00:36:25,650 --> 00:36:29,290
+بيبيعوا للولاد الصغير بخمسين .. خمسين نص .. نص
+
+463
+00:36:29,290 --> 00:36:34,770
+شاكل طب عملياً مين الربح؟ كيس الطحين أكثر ولا الـ ..
+
+464
+00:36:34,770 --> 00:36:39,530
+الـ chips .. الأطفال دفعنا .. احنا بس ثلاثين ..
+
+465
+00:36:39,530 --> 00:36:43,370
+ثلاثين أجورة عملنا عشرين أجورة منهم فجداش العائد
+
+466
+00:36:43,370 --> 00:36:45,730
+علينا؟ العائد علينا أنّه احنا العشرين هدول اللي
+
+467
+00:36:45,730 --> 00:36:48,890
+هيبيعوا بخمسين طبعاً العشرين على ثلاثين شوفوا كم
+
+468
+00:36:48,890 --> 00:36:52,650
+ربحنا من ورا الشغلة و بكيس الطحين احنا شاكل دفعنا
+
+469
+00:36:52,650 --> 00:36:56,890
+.. دفعنا سبعين شاكل و حصلنا على شاكل واحد شفتوا كيف
+
+470
+00:36:56,890 --> 00:37:01,210
+الـ .. فهنربحنا .. هنربحنا شاكل؟ في كيس طحين
+
+471
+00:37:01,210 --> 00:37:04,590
+نربحنا شاكل صراحة؟ و بالـ chips تبع الأطفال كم
+
+472
+00:37:04,590 --> 00:37:11,510
+نربحنا عشرين أجورا؟ طب أنا و .. أحسن أربح شاكل في
+
+473
+00:37:11,510 --> 00:37:15,850
+كيس طحين و لا أربح عشرين cent و لا عشرين أجورا في
+
+474
+00:37:15,850 --> 00:37:23,680
+chips الأطفال عشرين أجورا ليه؟ عشان البريطاني لو أنا
+
+475
+00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,920
+.. عشان العائد العائد أنا العشرين أنا دفعت كم
+
+476
+00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,440
+عشان حصلت على الـ .. على العشرين؟ دفعت أنا ثلاثين
+
+477
+00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:33,560
+لحدي chips شوفوا قداش الثلثين يعني أنا ربحت خمسة و
+
+478
+00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:38,140
+سبعين تلمينا طب أنا دفعت كم؟ أنا سبعين بقت كيس
+
+479
+00:37:38,140 --> 00:37:40,940
+الطحين بواحد و سبعين و بالتالي أنا واحد على سبعين
+
+480
+00:37:40,940 --> 00:37:46,220
+شوفوا قداش تفتوا كم؟ فالبقوش يعني مثلاً اللي بيبيع
+
+481
+00:37:46,220 --> 00:37:50,200
+كيس الطحين مش فاهم ازاي ممكن احنا نبيع الـ .. علكة
+
+482
+00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,720
+الأطفال هذه أو الألعاب الأفضل تجيب إيرادات أعلى من
+
+483
+00:37:54,720 --> 00:37:57,800
+الشغلات اللي احنا بفكر فيها this is why أنّه احنا
+
+484
+00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:02,800
+مش كثير بنركز على الـ profit بنركز على وضّح أشر
+
+485
+00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:07,040
+فرق ليش احنا ما حكينا عشان profit حكينا return و
+
+486
+00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:11,680
+هذا بحياتكم العملية تتطّقوا طب احنا نقف عند هذا
+
+487
+00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:15,620
+الحد إن شاء الله و اللقاء الجاي بنبدأ نحكي
+
+488
+00:38:15,620 --> 00:38:19,760
+بالتفاصيل و حابين احنا مشاركة منكم
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..77d442e68bb17c13c5ab4d64f1b34c688e0573a2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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"text": "فان شاء الله يكون في discussion بالمادة لأنه في جزء كبير عامل منها وبالتالي هذا اشي ايجابي يعني بساعدكم على ان انت تفهم المادة بشكل اكبر تمام؟ ده ايه عن السؤال اللي بنسأله طبعا الأكل ممنوع انتوا عارفين تعليمات الجامعة ال mobile phones switch off", "tokens": [5172, 7649, 13412, 16606, 21984, 7251, 30544, 8978, 5017, 20666, 2304, 18513, 3660, 5296, 33456, 3224, 8978, 10874, 11622, 38207, 9122, 3555, 13546, 6225, 10943, 1211, 9154, 11296, 46599, 6027, 2655, 6027, 1829, 23758, 1975, 8592, 1829, 1975, 1829, 7435, 16758, 1829, 37495, 22653, 4724, 3794, 995, 22488, 24793, 15844, 16472, 16472, 2655, 6055, 5172, 16095, 9673, 18513, 3660, 4724, 8592, 28820, 1975, 4117, 26890, 46811, 10943, 22807, 11778, 3224, 1975, 1829, 3224, 18871, 21136, 33604, 6027, 13672, 1829, 44945, 3794, 10721, 43761, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 16247, 28820, 3714, 27842, 45367, 16472, 2655, 14407, 6225, 9640, 5172, 9957, 37279, 20292, 2304, 9307, 25724, 10943, 27884, 2423, 6013, 10216, 3679, 766], "avg_logprob": 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معمولها silent و مابيبناش حد يتصل فينا أثناء المحاضرة و أنتوا نفس الشغلة، طبعا؟ فأي طالبة أو أي طالب بيكون عنده ال mobile phone محطوط على ال desktop تبعه يعني أنا هيأثر على ال participation تبعته", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 11331, 49975, 41850, 3714, 16758, 16254, 8592, 1829, 2423, 6013, 2593, 6055, 3555, 34268, 1829, 18871, 16254, 12399, 1975, 1829, 3224, 22807, 39896, 3714, 5016, 9566, 2407, 9566, 3660, 8978, 25124, 1863, 9566, 3660, 4032, 20449, 2304, 12610, 11296, 12784, 4032, 19446, 21292, 3555, 1863, 33599, 11331, 3215, 7251, 2655, 36520, 8978, 8315, 5551, 12984, 1863, 16606, 9673, 5016, 46958, 25720, 4032, 14739, 2655, 14407, 8717, 36178, 25124, 17082, 1211, 3660, 12399, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 22807, 6156, 10721, 1829, 23032, 6027, 49401, 34051, 36632, 23032, 6027, 3555, 4724, 1829, 30544, 43242, 3224, 2423, 6013, 2593, 3714, 5016, 9566, 2407, 9566, 15844, 2423, 14502, 6055, 3555, 3615, 3224, 37495, 22653, 41850, 39896, 10721, 49115, 15844, 2423, 13487, 6055, 3555, 34268, 3224], 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70818, "start": 680.48, "end": 708.18, "text": "for reports report and assignments I will ask you to write two reports to be honest with you before writing the assignments I will give you like sample of assignments some students with marks less than 10 and some students with 20 just to compare between the two different students", "tokens": [2994, 7122, 2275, 293, 22546, 286, 486, 1029, 291, 281, 2464, 732, 7122, 281, 312, 3245, 365, 291, 949, 3579, 264, 22546, 286, 486, 976, 291, 411, 6889, 295, 22546, 512, 1731, 365, 10640, 1570, 813, 1266, 293, 512, 1731, 365, 945, 445, 281, 6794, 1296, 264, 732, 819, 1731], "avg_logprob": -0.17539828139192917, "compression_ratio": 1.7672955974842768, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 680.48, "end": 680.78, "word": "for", "probability": 0.1666259765625}, {"start": 680.78, "end": 681.48, "word": " reports", "probability": 0.72314453125}, {"start": 681.48, "end": 682.78, "word": " report", "probability": 0.84130859375}, {"start": 682.78, 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0.83935546875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 41, "seek": 108201, "start": 1058.99, "end": 1082.01, "text": "و اجيبكم انه طبعا مش هنجريكم الأسماء طبعا لانه هذا ethics فهنشوفكم طلاب رثبوا بالassignment تبعتهم و طلاب نجحوا بالassignment تبعتهم هتشوفوا ال .. ال big gap بين هدول اللي نجحوا بين هدول اللي رثبوا بالassignment and then you decide whether you are in this group or in this group", "tokens": [2407, 1975, 7435, 1829, 3555, 24793, 16472, 3224, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 37893, 8032, 1863, 7435, 16572, 24793, 16247, 38251, 16606, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 5296, 7649, 3224, 23758, 19769, 6156, 3224, 1863, 8592, 38688, 24793, 23032, 15040, 3555, 12602, 12984, 3555, 14407, 20666, 640, 41134, 6055, 3555, 34268, 16095, 4032, 23032, 15040, 3555, 8717, 7435, 5016, 14407, 20666, 640, 41134, 6055, 3555, 34268, 16095, 8032, 2655, 8592, 38688, 14407, 2423, 4386, 2423, 955, 7417, 49374, 8032, 3215, 12610, 13672, 1829, 8717, 7435, 5016, 14407, 49374, 8032, 3215, 12610, 13672, 1829, 12602, 12984, 3555, 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صفحة و ال references هتاخد مننا صفحة وهي خلصنا ال assignment", "tokens": [2631, 311, 584, 11650, 2283, 337, 1184, 15187, 5296, 28820, 36764, 24401, 8717, 47283, 3215, 41171, 9122, 19528, 3660, 41171, 9122, 19528, 3660, 37495, 22653, 11778, 12610, 8032, 2304, 1722, 20328, 5172, 5016, 9307, 1722, 5551, 8592, 3224, 2288, 20328, 5172, 5016, 9307, 28242, 20328, 5172, 5016, 3660, 11650, 9122, 19528, 3660, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 8032, 9640, 7435, 1829, 4117, 14407, 9122, 33911, 577, 321, 13859, 22546, 8032, 2655, 7435, 3215, 14407, 4724, 3794, 14739, 2655, 14407, 39894, 4117, 2655, 3555, 14407, 8608, 2655, 20328, 5172, 5016, 9307, 10874, 3215, 5296, 33456, 2423, 9339, 8032, 2655, 47283, 3215, 9154, 8315, 20328, 5172, 5016, 3660, 4032, 2423, 10063, 8032, 2655, 47283, 3215, 9154, 8315, 20328, 5172, 5016, 3660, 4032, 2423, 15400, 8032, 2655, 47283, 3215, 9154, 8315, 20328, 5172, 5016, 3660, 37037, 1829, 16490, 1211, 9381, 8315, 2423, 15187], "avg_logprob": -0.2250000021287373, 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this swat is using to evaluate", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 3800, 11, 24381, 11, 4786, 293, 14909, 341, 307, 294, 341, 2823, 1392, 321, 815, 3241, 341, 1693, 267, 307, 1228, 281, 13059], "avg_logprob": -0.38221154648524064, "compression_ratio": 1.2072072072072073, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1646.04, "end": 1646.56, "word": "يعني", "probability": 0.955078125}, {"start": 1646.56, "end": 1647.24, "word": " strength,", "probability": 0.78369140625}, {"start": 1647.42, "end": 1647.78, "word": " weaknesses,", "probability": 0.8388671875}, {"start": 1648.04, "end": 1648.7, "word": " opportunities", "probability": 0.9423828125}, {"start": 1648.7, "end": 1649.12, "word": " and", "probability": 0.84228515625}, {"start": 1649.12, "end": 1649.52, "word": " threats", "probability": 0.29833984375}, {"start": 1649.52, "end": 1650.84, "word": " this", "probability": 0.38720703125}, {"start": 1650.84, "end": 1650.98, "word": " is", "probability": 0.94775390625}, {"start": 1650.98, "end": 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"word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9737955729166666}, {"start": 2283.48, "end": 2283.76, "word": " ماحكينا", "probability": 0.90263671875}, {"start": 2283.76, "end": 2283.88, "word": " عشان", "probability": 0.7271321614583334}, {"start": 2283.88, "end": 2284.2, "word": " profit", "probability": 0.9296875}, {"start": 2284.2, "end": 2285.14, "word": " حكينا", "probability": 0.774139404296875}, {"start": 2285.14, "end": 2285.42, "word": " return", "probability": 0.91845703125}, {"start": 2285.42, "end": 2287.04, "word": " و", "probability": 0.448486328125}, {"start": 2287.04, "end": 2287.22, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.7900390625}, {"start": 2287.22, "end": 2287.66, "word": " بحياتكوا", "probability": 0.882568359375}, {"start": 2287.66, "end": 2288.1, "word": " العملية", "probability": 0.8338216145833334}, {"start": 2288.1, "end": 2288.96, "word": " تتطقو", "probability": 0.506396484375}, {"start": 2288.96, "end": 2290.66, "word": " طب", "probability": 0.64794921875}, {"start": 2290.66, "end": 2290.92, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9734700520833334}, {"start": 2290.92, "end": 2291.3, "word": " نقف", "probability": 0.8035481770833334}, {"start": 2291.3, "end": 2291.5, "word": " عند", "probability": 0.9599609375}, {"start": 2291.5, "end": 2291.68, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.9541015625}, {"start": 2291.68, "end": 2292.04, "word": " الحد", "probability": 0.974365234375}, {"start": 2292.04, "end": 2292.84, "word": " ان", "probability": 0.82470703125}, {"start": 2292.84, "end": 2293.06, "word": " شاء", "probability": 0.9658203125}, {"start": 2293.06, "end": 2293.26, "word": " الله", "probability": 0.96435546875}, {"start": 2293.26, "end": 2294.02, "word": " و", "probability": 0.66796875}, {"start": 2294.02, "end": 2294.58, "word": " اللقاء", "probability": 0.9571940104166666}, {"start": 2294.58, "end": 2294.88, "word": " الجاي", "probability": 0.684814453125}, {"start": 2294.88, "end": 2295.2, "word": " بنبدأ", "probability": 0.7134602864583334}, {"start": 2295.2, "end": 2295.62, "word": " نحكي", "probability": 0.9913330078125}, {"start": 2295.62, "end": 2297.6, "word": " بالتفاصيل", "probability": 0.865966796875}, {"start": 2297.6, "end": 2297.72, "word": " و", "probability": 0.986328125}, {"start": 2297.72, "end": 2298.04, "word": " حابين", "probability": 0.5279134114583334}, {"start": 2298.04, "end": 2298.32, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9695638020833334}, {"start": 2298.32, "end": 2299.5, "word": " مشاركة", "probability": 0.9776611328125}, {"start": 2299.5, "end": 2299.76, "word": " منكم", "probability": 0.944091796875}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2300.44725, "duration_after_vad": 2198.5024999999932}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b460641e7f08708c3debc9c47537497074dc4a6d
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+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1952 @@
+1
+00:00:23,070 --> 00:00:27,510
+فبالنسبة للكتاب اللي احنا مقرنوه لهذا الكتاب موجود
+
+2
+00:00:27,510 --> 00:00:32,310
+على نسخة القصدية تبعته كل مرة انا بجيبلكم ال
+
+3
+00:00:32,310 --> 00:00:38,090
+chapter اللي بنحكي فيه طبعا هذا الكتاب لآخر نسخة
+
+4
+00:00:38,090 --> 00:00:43,870
+في ال investments طبعا هذا نسخة التاسعة ninth
+
+5
+00:00:43,870 --> 00:00:49,130
+edition و احنا من اللي هنكون focus ع الكتاب ال
+
+6
+00:00:49,130 --> 00:00:54,550
+slides هي headlinesتركز على headlines أكيد انه مش
+
+7
+00:00:54,550 --> 00:00:58,570
+هي .. الانتحار مش هيكون بال slides هيكون mainly
+
+8
+00:00:58,570 --> 00:01:03,470
+technical ف أثناء الشوارع إذا انتوا حسيتوا مش
+
+9
+00:01:03,470 --> 00:01:07,130
+واضحة الأمور ف raise your hand و you are free to
+
+10
+00:01:07,130 --> 00:01:11,690
+ask any question فإذا ماحدش برفع أيضا على plan you
+
+11
+00:01:11,690 --> 00:01:17,840
+understandOkay فهقلطي بتاع الشغل ماتخجلوه لأنه أنا
+
+12
+00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:19,820
+ما بعرفش شو أنتوا بتفكروا في ال .. في ال
+
+13
+00:01:19,820 --> 00:01:23,920
+investments وبالتالي أي شغلة أي مصطلح مش واضح اي
+
+14
+00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:29,240
+سؤال مش واضح وبالتالي لازم انه انتوا تسألوا ان
+
+15
+00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:33,740
+احنا هان جاي نتعلم مش هين .. بس نهز راسنا ونقول
+
+16
+00:01:33,740 --> 00:01:38,380
+okay كل شي مكتمون واحنا مش فاهمين ف please يعني
+
+17
+00:01:38,380 --> 00:01:43,310
+احنا موجودين هنعلمكم اهو بالتالي مابديش يعني حتى
+
+18
+00:01:43,310 --> 00:01:47,730
+نخرج من الفاعة و مافهماش هذا .. لأنه أنا في عند
+
+19
+00:01:47,730 --> 00:01:51,110
+perception أنه طالما أنه انا انتقلت للنقطة اللي
+
+20
+00:01:51,110 --> 00:01:54,410
+بعديها بكون معناه الكلام أنه the previous one is
+
+21
+00:01:54,410 --> 00:01:59,510
+understandable يعني so مش هيكون الاشي صعب عليكم
+
+22
+00:02:01,590 --> 00:02:05,790
+تمام؟ في آخر كل chapter في أسئلة بتحاولوا تسألوا
+
+23
+00:02:05,790 --> 00:02:09,010
+ال .. ال .. الأسئلة هذه و ان شاء الله يعني يكون ..
+
+24
+00:02:09,010 --> 00:02:13,690
+إذا في مشاكل في الأسئلة ترجعوا إليه و نتناقش فيها
+
+25
+00:02:13,690 --> 00:02:20,370
+أنا كمان طلبت من ال .. من الأستاذ الرئيس القسيم و
+
+26
+00:02:20,370 --> 00:02:23,610
+كان مشكور يعني واثق على أنه احنا نعمل discussion
+
+27
+00:02:23,610 --> 00:02:26,850
+عن مادة هذهفان شاء الله يكون في discussion بالمادة
+
+28
+00:02:26,850 --> 00:02:30,970
+لأنه في جزء كبير عامل منها وبالتالي هذا اشي ايجابي
+
+29
+00:02:30,970 --> 00:02:34,650
+يعني بساعدكم على ان انت تفهم المادة بشكل اكبر
+
+30
+00:02:34,650 --> 00:02:41,170
+تمام؟ ده ايه عن السؤال اللي بنسأله طبعا الأكل
+
+31
+00:02:41,170 --> 00:02:44,550
+ممنوع انتوا عارفين تعليمات الجامعة ال mobile
+
+32
+00:02:44,550 --> 00:02:48,760
+phones switch offيعني حتى أنا مابديشي ال mobile
+
+33
+00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,620
+phone تبعتي عندي، ايه؟ هي محطوطة في الشنطة و
+
+34
+00:02:52,620 --> 00:02:58,000
+معمولها silent و مابيبناش حد يتصل فينا أثناء
+
+35
+00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:02,920
+المحاضرة و أنتوا نفس الشغلة، طبعا؟ فأي طالبة أو أي
+
+36
+00:03:02,920 --> 00:03:05,160
+طالب بيكون عنده ال mobile phone محطوط على ال
+
+37
+00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:09,160
+desktop تبعه يعني أنا هيأثر على ال participation
+
+38
+00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:14,060
+تبعتهطبعا ف please يعني احنا جايين هنا ندرس
+
+39
+00:03:14,060 --> 00:03:18,420
+texting messages و الشغلات هذه اذا شغلات emergency
+
+40
+00:03:18,420 --> 00:03:23,140
+ترفع ايديك و تطلع برا و تعمل ايه ال texting من هلأ
+
+41
+00:03:23,140 --> 00:03:30,000
+اكتر okay ف .. هذا في حالة emergency يعني استغنيش
+
+42
+00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,520
+الأمر شغلات ان شاء الله يعني ما بنصل لمراحل ال ..
+
+43
+00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:38,920
+ال emergency هذه طبعا زي ما حكيله أنه احنا هدرج
+
+44
+00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:45,000
+على الكتابو ال slides فيه بالنسبة لل student اللي
+
+45
+00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:50,420
+هم بدهم يزيدوا المعرفة تبعتهم طبعا هذا مش هيدخل في
+
+46
+00:03:50,420 --> 00:03:56,020
+ال examهيكون في other references هتساعدهم يعني إذا
+
+47
+00:03:56,020 --> 00:03:59,040
+بدهم .. يعني are seeking more knowledge فإذا هم
+
+48
+00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:03,260
+بدهم أكتر معرفة، بدهم هذا فأنا هتركلهم references
+
+49
+00:04:03,260 --> 00:04:08,440
+و هتركلهم articles يقرؤوها في ال .. في البيت لكن
+
+50
+00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:11,960
+هذه مش داخلة في ال exams يعني احنا ال mainly ال
+
+51
+00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:16,060
+exam تبعتنا من الكتاب و من الشرح اللي احنا مشروحه
+
+52
+00:04:16,060 --> 00:04:21,570
+في اللقاءOkay هذا الاتفاق في حد عنده سؤال في
+
+53
+00:04:21,570 --> 00:04:27,050
+الموضوع قبل ما نحكي في .. هذا الكتاب؟ لأ مش هذا
+
+54
+00:04:27,050 --> 00:04:31,290
+الكتاب هذا ال chapter one فانا صورتلكوا ال chapter
+
+55
+00:04:31,290 --> 00:04:36,530
+one لأ هاي نصه اول اشه نصه ال introduction تبع
+
+56
+00:04:36,530 --> 00:04:40,930
+الكتاب و تعريف الكتاب و المواضيع هذه ممكن انا
+
+57
+00:04:40,930 --> 00:04:46,810
+اواجهيكوا الكتاب بس لأنه ال copyrightاحنا يعني
+
+58
+00:04:46,810 --> 00:04:51,670
+بحوالي عشر شباتر، هناخد حوالي عشر شباتر و انا يعني
+
+59
+00:04:51,670 --> 00:04:54,530
+اللقاء اللي جاي بتجيبلكم still a bus بس حاببت انه
+
+60
+00:04:54,530 --> 00:04:59,330
+العدد يكتمل بحيث انه يكون شرح كامل لل action بعد
+
+61
+00:04:59,330 --> 00:05:05,070
+ده okay فاحنا ماشيين، السبوع هذا هناخد فيه طبيعي
+
+62
+00:05:05,070 --> 00:05:12,090
+فبتحكوا ل .. لزميلاتكم انه يعني احنا يعني بدأنا
+
+63
+00:05:13,310 --> 00:05:19,210
+بحيث انه ي .. نستطيع انه نوصل المعلومة لأكبر عدد
+
+64
+00:05:19,210 --> 00:05:22,730
+ممكن من الطلاب بالنسبة لل .. زي ما حكي عن الكتاب
+
+65
+00:05:22,730 --> 00:05:27,030
+هو هذا investment كتاب أخر نسخة بال .. بال
+
+66
+00:05:27,030 --> 00:05:34,570
+investment كتاب يدرس في أغلب جامعات العالمو ينصح
+
+67
+00:05:34,570 --> 00:05:40,630
+سهل في .. في examples كتير بعدين بربطكم مع الواقع
+
+68
+00:05:40,630 --> 00:05:44,050
+مش هتكونوا يتغلبوا كتير في قراءة الكتاب حتى ال
+
+69
+00:05:44,050 --> 00:05:47,570
+language تبعته يعني language سهلة كتير مش هيكون
+
+70
+00:05:47,570 --> 00:05:51,090
+عندنا الصعوبة في التعامل مع هذا الكتاب ما تخافوش
+
+71
+00:05:51,090 --> 00:05:53,190
+هذا ال chapter أول مش هو هذا ال chapter أول هذا بس
+
+72
+00:05:53,190 --> 00:05:56,510
+ال introduction و أيش الزيادات اللي صارت بال ..
+
+73
+00:05:56,510 --> 00:05:59,950
+بال edition .. أخر edition يعني لو إيجينا احنا
+
+74
+00:05:59,950 --> 00:06:05,380
+نبدأ ال chapter هيبدأ من هذاهذا الجزء بس بعرفنا
+
+75
+00:06:05,380 --> 00:06:11,450
+بالكتاب و إيش .. طبعا أكيد مش حاجة نتحنم فيهبس
+
+76
+00:06:11,450 --> 00:06:13,730
+كويس تعرفوا شو الزيادات اللي صارت على ال edition
+
+77
+00:06:13,730 --> 00:06:16,530
+اللي فاتت هذا للناس اللي بدها تعرف الناس اللي هذا
+
+78
+00:06:16,530 --> 00:06:22,350
+انتوا مطالبين بال .. بالبدأة ال chapter okay فهدهو
+
+79
+00:06:22,350 --> 00:06:27,790
+بالنسبة لتوزيع الدراجات وهدي دايما اللي ممكن يكون
+
+80
+00:06:27,790 --> 00:06:33,290
+فيها شوية discussion فانا يعني حبيت اناقشها معكم
+
+81
+00:06:33,290 --> 00:06:36,790
+بحيث انه يعني يكون عندنا ال ..
+
+82
+00:06:44,820 --> 00:06:50,800
+طبعا زي ما انتوا بتعرفوا لازم يكون عندي اللي هو
+
+83
+00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:57,720
+midterm exam و لازم يكون عندي final exam هدول يعني
+
+84
+00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:04,560
+مابتغيروش ال midterm لو حكينا مثلا thirty و هنا
+
+85
+00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:12,020
+forty فبصير عندي seventy عندنا ال attendanceو ال
+
+86
+00:07:12,020 --> 00:07:19,580
+participation عنا ten و ال reports and assignments
+
+87
+00:07:19,580 --> 00:07:27,800
+اللي هو twenty okay فبصير عندي thirty forty sixty
+
+88
+00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:32,480
+one hundred okay فبصير عندي المجموع one hundred
+
+89
+00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:39,720
+نيجي نحكي واحدة واحدة واحدة واحدة ال midterm exam
+
+90
+00:07:40,910 --> 00:07:45,690
+ال midterm exam طبعا احنا بخلص مثلا four chapters
+
+91
+00:07:45,690 --> 00:07:49,670
+و بكون عندنا ال .. ال .. الامتحان تبع ال midterm
+
+92
+00:07:49,670 --> 00:07:56,810
+exam يعني بتعده بعد مثلا تمان أسابيع من الفصل نروح
+
+93
+00:07:56,810 --> 00:08:02,460
+ندخل في ال midterm examيعني حسب الخطة سبعتنا ان
+
+94
+00:08:02,460 --> 00:08:06,020
+شاء الله المرة الجاية احنا بن .. يعني تقريبا تلاتة
+
+95
+00:08:06,020 --> 00:08:09,140
+لأ four chapters من تلاتة لأربعة chapters حسب احنا
+
+96
+00:08:09,140 --> 00:08:13,780
+جهدنا و حسب التزامكم و ال .. احنا بالاخير مش .. مش
+
+97
+00:08:13,780 --> 00:08:17,000
+معانين كتير ع كام chapter معانين كذا .. كام انتوا
+
+98
+00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:24,080
+تستوقبوا الموضوع؟ شهر تحسبيهم اكمسهم ب zero يعني
+
+99
+00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,980
+ستة أسابيع سبعة أسابيع okay يعني نحسب حسابنا بعد
+
+100
+00:08:26,980 --> 00:08:32,920
+سبعة أسابيع يكون عنا عايشالامتحان المسمى طبعا؟ لإن
+
+101
+00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:36,060
+بالنسبة لل attendance و ال participation الحضور و
+
+102
+00:08:36,060 --> 00:08:40,040
+اللي هو الغياب هدول و هدول مجموحهم تلاتين صح؟
+
+103
+00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:45,760
+الأغلب بيفكروا أن هذه محطوطة ب جيبتهم بس بالعكس
+
+104
+00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:49,820
+يعني يمكن المدة والفعل يكون بجيبتكم و هدول طالعين
+
+105
+00:08:49,820 --> 00:08:53,040
+ليش؟
+
+106
+00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,420
+ليش؟ لأنه ممكن أن تكون attendance hundred percent
+
+107
+00:08:56,420 --> 00:09:01,260
+attendanceو المشكلة أنه مافيش participation هناخد
+
+108
+00:09:01,260 --> 00:09:06,320
+خمسة من عشرة مثلا حسب كام بيصير participation
+
+109
+00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:08,820
+عندكم ال participation مش خارج أن ترفع إيدك و تحكي
+
+110
+00:09:08,820 --> 00:09:12,940
+يعني مثلا في البيت روحت رجعت الموضوع و في نقطة
+
+111
+00:09:12,940 --> 00:09:16,180
+نشوبها و الله إيجاتي و الله هاد اللي اتفنها هاد
+
+112
+00:09:16,180 --> 00:09:18,640
+الكذا هاد فتعطيني indication أن انت you are
+
+113
+00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,440
+involving in the process of education you are not
+
+114
+00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:25,620
+away from the class هذا اسمه participationهذا اسمه
+
+115
+00:09:25,620 --> 00:09:28,480
+.. هذا اسمه participation يعني مش شرط أنه أرفع
+
+116
+00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:33,820
+أيدي و أنا يعني أجاوز و كذا كويس هذا يعني خلاني
+
+117
+00:09:33,820 --> 00:09:38,360
+أحكي positive participation is fine but we have to
+
+118
+00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:42,020
+know the participation is to follow up to track
+
+119
+00:09:42,020 --> 00:09:45,700
+the classes and to ask questions related to the
+
+120
+00:09:45,700 --> 00:09:49,820
+classes okay so the thing is here in the
+
+121
+00:09:49,820 --> 00:09:54,700
+participationis to read what is going on in the
+
+122
+00:09:54,700 --> 00:09:59,620
+class and when you go home just read this text
+
+123
+00:09:59,620 --> 00:10:03,120
+book I don't ask you to read other things just
+
+124
+00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:07,080
+focus on this understand this for the highly
+
+125
+00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,680
+qualified students so there are other materials so
+
+126
+00:10:10,680 --> 00:10:15,040
+they can go back to these materials but again you
+
+127
+00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,920
+are not asking for
+
+128
+00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:24,950
+other materials what you canit's just committed
+
+129
+00:10:24,950 --> 00:10:29,790
+with this textbook maybe
+
+130
+00:10:29,790 --> 00:10:32,810
+you .. when you are reading you stuck one with a
+
+131
+00:10:32,810 --> 00:10:38,310
+particular abbreviation or some issues in the book
+
+132
+00:10:38,310 --> 00:10:43,730
+you go back and you make them to the office hours
+
+133
+00:10:43,730 --> 00:10:47,610
+and ask them about it this is a practice test so
+
+134
+00:10:47,610 --> 00:10:49,730
+this is very important to show me that you
+
+135
+00:10:49,730 --> 00:10:53,520
+understand anddon't tell me I don't understand
+
+136
+00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:57,360
+tell me that I don't understand this particular
+
+137
+00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:02,540
+problem okay and then the discussion between me
+
+138
+00:11:02,540 --> 00:11:06,140
+and you is growing up and then at the end of the
+
+139
+00:11:06,140 --> 00:11:10,040
+meeting we can summarize whether you understand or
+
+140
+00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:14,180
+not so this is the participation and attendance so
+
+141
+00:11:14,180 --> 00:11:17,140
+be careful for these two things it is not in your
+
+142
+00:11:17,140 --> 00:11:19,140
+pocket okay
+
+143
+00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:24,520
+for reports report and assignments I will ask you
+
+144
+00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:30,660
+to write two reports to
+
+145
+00:11:30,660 --> 00:11:33,760
+be honest with you before writing the assignments
+
+146
+00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:38,860
+I will give you like sample of assignments some
+
+147
+00:11:38,860 --> 00:11:43,980
+students with marks less than 10 and some students
+
+148
+00:11:43,980 --> 00:11:47,640
+with 20 just to compare between the two different
+
+149
+00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:51,670
+studentsto show how you write your assignments and
+
+150
+00:11:51,670 --> 00:11:54,190
+I will show you how you organize your assignments
+
+151
+00:11:54,190 --> 00:12:00,130
+you try to avoid the plagiarism حاولوا تتجنبوا ال
+
+152
+00:12:00,130 --> 00:12:04,670
+plagiarism حاولوا
+
+153
+00:12:04,670 --> 00:12:06,890
+تتجنبوا ال plagiarism ال plagiarism يعني ال fully
+
+154
+00:12:06,890 --> 00:12:13,310
+unpaid يعني ان احنا ناخد من الكتب و نخد بس و we
+
+155
+00:12:13,310 --> 00:12:17,430
+don't understand ممكن ان تقرأوا الموضوعفي ال
+
+156
+00:12:17,430 --> 00:12:22,870
+report تقلق الموضوع و حسب الفهم تبعك تكتب الموضوع
+
+157
+00:12:22,870 --> 00:12:27,310
+I don't mind to do this لكن إذا أحنا بيجي الكوبي و
+
+158
+00:12:27,310 --> 00:12:32,130
+نحط best أنا يعني سهل أعرف الكلام يعني okay في
+
+159
+00:12:32,130 --> 00:12:35,850
+عندنا برنامج اسمه termed in هذا termed in بنحطه في
+
+160
+00:12:35,850 --> 00:12:41,490
+الجهاز بيظهر لكل من وين كل إشي جيبتيه so be
+
+161
+00:12:41,490 --> 00:12:45,750
+careful with thisحلوات أخرى شوفناها في بعض ال
+
+162
+00:12:45,750 --> 00:12:48,110
+assignments أن واحدة تكتب assignment وتلاتة بيعمل
+
+163
+00:12:48,110 --> 00:12:53,070
+copy عنها Consuming that the teachers are not
+
+164
+00:12:53,070 --> 00:12:56,490
+reading the assignments So this is why I'm telling
+
+165
+00:12:56,490 --> 00:13:01,430
+you this is not in your pocket because you assume
+
+166
+00:13:01,430 --> 00:13:04,250
+that your teacher is not reading your assignments
+
+167
+00:13:05,410 --> 00:13:08,530
+So this is very interesting I'm reading every word
+
+168
+00:13:08,530 --> 00:13:11,050
+you are writing because sometimes I get benefit
+
+169
+00:13:11,050 --> 00:13:14,250
+from your writing فهو ممكن تجيب شغلات أنا
+
+170
+00:13:14,250 --> 00:13:21,670
+مابعرفهاش فانا بقرأ بستفيد okay فاتخلوش
+
+171
+00:13:21,670 --> 00:13:26,070
+القصة I made to the last minute to the last minute
+
+172
+00:13:26,070 --> 00:13:30,490
+معناه تلعب أنه مش هتاخدي feedback و عادة إحنا هيك
+
+173
+00:13:30,490 --> 00:13:35,550
+نسويهامثلا عندي الassignment لازم نسلمه و نحترمه
+
+174
+00:13:35,550 --> 00:13:42,290
+مثلا بيه خمس تاعش اربع ماني ستة اربع بنيجي الشباب
+
+175
+00:13:42,290 --> 00:13:46,070
+و البنات بيجيوا لعين تلتاش اربعة او اوش صارش ماني
+
+176
+00:13:46,070 --> 00:13:50,750
+هاتوا الassignment وانتوا okay and يلا submit و
+
+177
+00:13:50,750 --> 00:13:52,990
+بالاخير انه بناخد ثمانية من عشرة ثمانية من عشرة
+
+178
+00:13:52,990 --> 00:13:56,550
+ثمانية و بنيجي بقى الأستاذ او اش اش انا كتبته تلت
+
+179
+00:13:56,550 --> 00:14:02,050
+تلت ديام و انا ب .. بشتغل مع صحفيتي و .. و هيكهذا
+
+180
+00:14:02,050 --> 00:14:06,750
+كلام مفروض تشتغل في ال assignments بطريقة صحيحة زي
+
+181
+00:14:06,750 --> 00:14:10,550
+ما انا بقدر إمكانياتكم تحكمتهم تمام؟ انت تشتغل في
+
+182
+00:14:10,550 --> 00:14:12,630
+.. لما تبعت ال submission لل assignments تمام؟
+
+183
+00:14:12,630 --> 00:14:16,530
+تحترم ان ال assignments هذا يعني .. بتبقى عشان
+
+184
+00:14:16,530 --> 00:14:22,390
+احكي high quality فيه الاقل انه is readable تمام؟
+
+185
+00:14:22,390 --> 00:14:26,570
+ال assignments شو .. شو المطلوب فيه؟ مطلوب ال
+
+186
+00:14:26,570 --> 00:14:31,080
+assignments لأن الموضوع ان investmentإذا تفتحوا
+
+187
+00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:34,440
+فيها أنه مثلا 10 شطر تفتحوا شطر منهم سباتر تفتحوا
+
+188
+00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:38,960
+الموضوع منهم تفتحوا حوار الموضوع okay for instance
+
+189
+00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:43,260
+the first chapter is talking about the investment
+
+190
+00:14:43,260 --> 00:14:47,420
+environment okay so the investment environment
+
+191
+00:14:47,420 --> 00:14:51,440
+includes many assets for instance if we talk about
+
+192
+00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:57,040
+the financial assets and the real assets you can
+
+193
+00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:58,000
+talk about real assets
+
+194
+00:15:00,940 --> 00:15:03,760
+Okay, real assets for instance you talk about the
+
+195
+00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,720
+mortgages, you talk about fixed assets, investment
+
+196
+00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,080
+in fixed assets, buildings, machines, equipment,
+
+197
+00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:14,000
+this is real assets, so you focus your assignment
+
+198
+00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,180
+on the real assets, other students focus the
+
+199
+00:15:17,180 --> 00:15:20,700
+assignment on the financial assets, others they
+
+200
+00:15:20,700 --> 00:15:23,640
+compare between the financial assets and the real
+
+201
+00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,960
+assets I don't mind to write your assignment with
+
+202
+00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:31,480
+a group, up to three studentsيعني انا بقى انا اعيش
+
+203
+00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,440
+ان انت تكتبوا ال assignments اللي عيشهم من خلال
+
+204
+00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:41,040
+ثلاث .. ثلاث طالبات up to يعني مايكونش اكتر up to
+
+205
+00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:45,060
+three students طبعا up to three students الثلاث
+
+206
+00:15:45,060 --> 00:15:48,060
+طالبات هم هشتغلوا في ال .. كل واحدة هتاخد ذوق في
+
+207
+00:15:48,060 --> 00:15:50,420
+ال .. في ال assignments و تكتب فيه يعني ماينفعش ان
+
+208
+00:15:50,420 --> 00:15:54,730
+انت تحديدش و تتحمل كل ..فأنا بدي أشوف مثلا you
+
+209
+00:15:54,730 --> 00:15:57,710
+assign to the three parts this part for x this
+
+210
+00:15:57,710 --> 00:16:02,370
+part for y and the last one is for z فلما نجيجي
+
+211
+00:16:02,370 --> 00:16:06,270
+نعمل تحيل نعمل و نتأكد أن ال three students are
+
+212
+00:16:06,270 --> 00:16:09,250
+you and me هذا مثلا for instance about the
+
+213
+00:16:09,250 --> 00:16:13,890
+investment environments if you are interested to
+
+214
+00:16:13,890 --> 00:16:19,250
+just select one of the chapters and write down
+
+215
+00:16:19,250 --> 00:16:23,450
+your assignments regarding the preferencesat the
+
+216
+00:16:23,450 --> 00:16:26,030
+end of each chapter you have a lot of references
+
+217
+00:16:26,030 --> 00:16:31,370
+if you have problems in getting the references
+
+218
+00:16:31,370 --> 00:16:33,050
+just contact me
+
+219
+00:16:38,530 --> 00:16:42,150
+the first five minutes in the .. in each meeting
+
+220
+00:16:42,150 --> 00:16:45,310
+just we discussed if the students has a habit
+
+221
+00:16:45,310 --> 00:16:47,830
+problems in the .. in the assignments or in the
+
+222
+00:16:47,830 --> 00:16:50,510
+previous meetings we summarize the previous
+
+223
+00:16:50,510 --> 00:16:53,990
+meeting and integrate you in the .. in the current
+
+224
+00:16:53,990 --> 00:16:59,270
+meetings okay so don't hesitate to .. to talk
+
+225
+00:16:59,270 --> 00:17:02,990
+about your assignment to talk about some issues
+
+226
+00:17:02,990 --> 00:17:06,910
+related to the previous meetings okay just to ..
+
+227
+00:17:06,910 --> 00:17:08,050
+to ensure that you understand
+
+228
+00:17:31,700 --> 00:17:36,280
+ماتنزعجوش كتير هأجيب sample of assignments
+
+229
+00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:42,190
+هأورجيكم إياهمو اجيبكم انه طبعا مش هنجريكم الأسماء
+
+230
+00:17:42,190 --> 00:17:48,590
+طبعا لانه هذا ethics فهنشوفكم طلاب رثبوا
+
+231
+00:17:48,590 --> 00:17:51,650
+بالassignment تبعتهم و طلاب نجحوا بالassignment
+
+232
+00:17:51,650 --> 00:17:56,190
+تبعتهم هتشوفوا ال .. ال big gap بين هدول اللي
+
+233
+00:17:56,190 --> 00:17:59,330
+نجحوا بين هدول اللي رثبوا بالassignment and then
+
+234
+00:17:59,330 --> 00:18:01,610
+you decide whether you are in this group or in
+
+235
+00:18:01,610 --> 00:18:06,410
+this groupأه فلازم أنتوا تقرروا أنتوا بتنجحوا بال
+
+236
+00:18:06,410 --> 00:18:10,070
+assignment ولا لأ بس أنا بتصور أنه يعني ليش تضيعوا
+
+237
+00:18:10,070 --> 00:18:12,950
+عليكم فرصة التلاتين درجة هدول هيك البلاش جايين
+
+238
+00:18:12,950 --> 00:18:19,850
+سهلين و خاصة أنه هذا مش exam أنه يعني .. يعني you
+
+239
+00:18:19,850 --> 00:18:23,550
+have now about six weeks or let's say sixteen
+
+240
+00:18:23,550 --> 00:18:28,490
+weeks to write down two simple assignments for
+
+241
+00:18:28,490 --> 00:18:32,770
+each assignment three thousand wordslet's say 250
+
+242
+00:18:32,770 --> 00:18:38,150
+words for each assignment لكل واحد ناخد 2500 كلمة
+
+243
+00:18:38,150 --> 00:18:44,650
+2500 كلمة يعني دول هم 9 صفحات 9 أشهر صفحات كل صفحة
+
+244
+00:18:44,650 --> 00:18:50,730
+250 كلمة طبعا هارجيكوا كيف how we organize
+
+245
+00:18:50,730 --> 00:18:54,950
+assignments هتجدوا بس أنتوا بتكتبوا ست صفحات جد
+
+246
+00:18:54,950 --> 00:18:57,210
+لأن ال introduction هتاخد مننا صفحة و ال
+
+247
+00:18:57,210 --> 00:18:59,770
+conclusion هتاخد مننا صفحة و ال references هتاخد
+
+248
+00:18:59,770 --> 00:19:04,160
+مننا صفحة وهي خلصنا ال assignmentلأ لأ احنا هنتفق
+
+249
+00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:10,240
+على .. هنتفق على ال .. هنتفق على شكل الاصامت بحيث
+
+250
+00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:15,800
+انه احنا we are seeking equality احنا we are
+
+251
+00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,440
+seeking equality يعني ال equality معناه جدا انه
+
+252
+00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,920
+احنا كلنا مع بعض هيك الاصامت تبعتنا بدأت كون ال
+
+253
+00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:28,100
+style متشابه يعني في عنا table of contents شكل
+
+254
+00:19:28,100 --> 00:19:32,360
+الخط يكون معين ال spaceالـ field lines مثلا ال
+
+255
+00:19:32,360 --> 00:19:34,780
+double space يكون ال margin يكون مرسّة ال
+
+256
+00:19:34,780 --> 00:19:38,120
+differences ال heating و ال sub heating كل هذا
+
+257
+00:19:38,120 --> 00:19:42,340
+بيكون ايش احنا نرسّيه لحيث لما احنا نيجي نعمل خدمة
+
+258
+00:19:42,340 --> 00:19:47,980
+لل assignments اللي فيها ده فيه quality لإن بكرا
+
+259
+00:19:47,980 --> 00:19:54,900
+انتوا بتروحوا على ال business تبعكم يعني بأظن انه
+
+260
+00:19:54,900 --> 00:19:59,830
+ضروري انه how to write a reportإنه احنا ال report
+
+261
+00:19:59,830 --> 00:20:04,470
+ضروري يكون مرسّل، مصح حيث أنه يعطي indication ل
+
+262
+00:20:04,470 --> 00:20:08,270
+your personality and your background as well فهذا
+
+263
+00:20:08,270 --> 00:20:11,230
+is important for you to know how to write a proper
+
+264
+00:20:11,230 --> 00:20:16,550
+report not just .. okay .. just أي حاجة بأي موضوع
+
+265
+00:20:16,550 --> 00:20:22,370
+يجيب أي نتيجة، هذا كلام اجتماعي طبعا؟ إيه عندكم
+
+266
+00:20:22,370 --> 00:20:27,930
+حاجة؟ okay زناد الورق؟ ماشي معانا بالخطب؟
+
+267
+00:20:30,870 --> 00:20:35,890
+طيب طبعا هذا بالنسبة للرباط و ال assignments بال
+
+268
+00:20:35,890 --> 00:20:42,010
+final exam مش .. يعني مش زي ال mid طبعا احنا هنجمع
+
+269
+00:20:42,010 --> 00:20:45,810
+ال .. زي ال bar مع ال final يصير تكتة هنجمع ال mid
+
+270
+00:20:45,810 --> 00:20:51,310
+مع ال .. مع ال attendance يصير 40 يصير هنا 40لأ 60
+
+271
+00:20:51,310 --> 00:20:54,690
+يعني بيكون عندكم على درجتهم بال .. بال med لأن ال
+
+272
+00:20:54,690 --> 00:20:58,310
+med هو عبارة عن activities أنت بتشتغلوا عليها ف 40
+
+273
+00:20:58,310 --> 00:21:04,510
+to 60 المجموع تبقى عمونا هنفسه okay هذا بالنسبة ل
+
+274
+00:21:04,510 --> 00:21:10,450
+ال .. ال .. how we manage our meetings في حد عنده
+
+275
+00:21:10,450 --> 00:21:20,220
+سؤال؟ اه؟ كم سنة؟ كده عامة ليه؟ كده عامةبعرفش هل
+
+276
+00:21:20,220 --> 00:21:24,980
+هي prerequisite يعني هل مطلب صالح سؤال هل هي مطلب
+
+277
+00:21:24,980 --> 00:21:28,880
+صالح من المادة؟ مش مطلب صالح، بس طيب، بيبقى كتير،
+
+278
+00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,480
+بس طبعا في extra effort مش أكتر يعني مثلا أعطيكي
+
+279
+00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:37,320
+مثال، لما أجي انا أحكي مثلا ال risk and return هذه
+
+280
+00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,680
+ال risk and return مخلينها بالإدارة المالية okay؟
+
+281
+00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,240
+بتوع الإدارة المالية، لما نيجي نحكي على ال spots،
+
+282
+00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,000
+لما نيجي نحكي على ال bonds، هذه بتوع الإدارة
+
+283
+00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,340
+المالية أصلا مخلينهافانه احنا هنضطر اذا انت مش
+
+284
+00:21:50,340 --> 00:21:54,720
+ماخده او اذا كان ال majority مش ماخدين الإدارة
+
+285
+00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,460
+المالية هضطر انه انا اش ارجع للإدارة المالية و
+
+286
+00:21:57,460 --> 00:22:02,680
+اشرحكم الإدارة المالية and we waste our time فإيش
+
+287
+00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:06,140
+أنا بسوي معاكي؟ إيش ممكن تسوي معاكي حتى مع
+
+288
+00:22:06,140 --> 00:22:10,160
+الطالبات اللي مش ماخدين الإدارة المالية؟ يعني إذا
+
+289
+00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:14,740
+مر علينا موضوع مش واضح ممكن يعني أهديكي إلى كتاب
+
+290
+00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:19,060
+نحكيلك إن هذا الكتاب وضح بعض المفاهيم، بعطيك شوية
+
+291
+00:22:19,060 --> 00:22:24,800
+شرح عن الموضوع، لكن بالاخير بدك ترجع للكتاب و تقرا
+
+292
+00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:29,180
+إيه الإدارة المالية، لأنه احنا هنا in distance، مش
+
+293
+00:22:29,180 --> 00:22:32,780
+هيكون الأمر صعب كتير، هيكون ال .. أكم واحدة مش
+
+294
+00:22:32,780 --> 00:22:39,130
+ماخدة إدارة مالية، خمسةيعني خمسة من خمسة واربعين
+
+295
+00:22:39,130 --> 00:22:43,950
+ان شاء الله مافيكوا مشكلة كمان إذا حسيت كمان شوي
+
+296
+00:22:43,950 --> 00:22:47,530
+الأمور صعبة ممكن أنتوا الخمسة تيجوا هيك بأوقات
+
+297
+00:22:47,530 --> 00:22:52,490
+الفراغ الأكاديمي أو أوقات ال .. هذا تفكريوا أيش
+
+298
+00:22:52,490 --> 00:22:57,470
+موضوع كنتوا تحكوا فيه و نشرحلكم طبعا؟ هذا من خلال
+
+299
+00:22:57,470 --> 00:23:05,150
+ال .. ال final forty هيك يكون احنا خلصنا الموضوع
+
+300
+00:23:05,150 --> 00:23:05,530
+تبعنا
+
+301
+00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:13,520
+خلّينا نقرر كلام هذا، مادة النهائي بتكون مادة
+
+302
+00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:18,820
+غنية، المشكلة وين؟ المشكلة بال .. بال investment و
+
+303
+00:23:18,820 --> 00:23:22,900
+ال financial management هي زي الرياضيات، يعني
+
+304
+00:23:22,900 --> 00:23:26,360
+موضوع بال .. اخر chapter مثلا احنا بنحكي bond
+
+305
+00:23:26,360 --> 00:23:30,800
+valuation، تقييم السنة ده، ال bond valuation ممكن
+
+306
+00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,320
+يكون جزء منها وضبط في chapter two و هي موجودة في
+
+307
+00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:37,560
+chapter sevenفإذا انت مش فاهم ال chapter 2 و مش
+
+308
+00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:43,780
+هتجاوب ال chapter 7 فعشان كده انا يعني مافيش عندي
+
+309
+00:23:43,780 --> 00:23:47,380
+جواب نهائي ان احكيلك اه ولا لأ ليش لإنه issue
+
+310
+00:23:47,380 --> 00:23:52,020
+مرتبط كله متداخل في بعضه لكن theoretically yes
+
+311
+00:23:52,020 --> 00:23:56,800
+نظريا yesبس من ناحية العالمية بتتعامل مع الأسئلة و
+
+312
+00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,620
+الإجابات هتجد انه انت you cannot handle the
+
+313
+00:23:59,620 --> 00:24:02,080
+question if you don't have experience on the
+
+314
+00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:15,700
+previous chapters فنظريا
+
+315
+00:24:15,700 --> 00:24:23,100
+كلام صحيح لكن عمليا كلام مش صحيح لا ماحكتشماحكنقش
+
+316
+00:24:23,100 --> 00:24:26,140
+لا لسه يعني ما هو انتوا تيجي تحكي على .. خلينينا
+
+317
+00:24:26,140 --> 00:24:31,920
+نجرب شوفوا خلينينا احنا نتعامل بال .. يعني اه
+
+318
+00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,780
+نتعامل نشوف كيف تتعاملوا انتوا مع ال .. مع الأسئلة
+
+319
+00:24:35,780 --> 00:24:39,080
+كيف تتعاملوا مع الشرح و حكينا يا ما تخجلوش ارفعوا
+
+320
+00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:43,960
+أيداكم و اسألوا يعني اذا مافهمتوش بالعربي انا
+
+321
+00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:45,920
+فاهمكم بالإنجليزي اذا مافهمتوش بالإنجليزي انا
+
+322
+00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,940
+فاهمكم بالعربي اه يعني على الجانب ايه اللي احنا
+
+323
+00:24:49,940 --> 00:24:50,380
+شغلين
+
+324
+00:24:54,420 --> 00:24:59,700
+أحنا متفاهمين باللغة
+
+325
+00:24:59,700 --> 00:25:09,360
+هادى ولا باللغة هادى؟ في حد عنده سؤال؟
+
+326
+00:25:10,850 --> 00:25:14,550
+و الله انا مش كتير في الموضوع الصح الموضوع و ال ..
+
+327
+00:25:14,550 --> 00:25:17,730
+و ال market choice مش كتير احنا .. و احنا مش مشاهد
+
+328
+00:25:17,730 --> 00:25:21,750
+احنا .. يعني .. يعني اذا اضطرينا .. اذا اضطرينا ..
+
+329
+00:25:21,750 --> 00:25:26,250
+المهم احنا الامتحان تركيبته اتقيس مهارات الطالب،
+
+330
+00:25:26,250 --> 00:25:29,670
+هذا ال .. هذا المهم، المهارات المختلفة بتاعة
+
+331
+00:25:29,670 --> 00:25:38,000
+الطالبأكيد .. أكيد هن .. هنعطيكم أسئلة و هي
+
+332
+00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:42,060
+الأسئلة اللي .. لكن المشكلة وين انه احنا يعني مثلا
+
+333
+00:25:42,060 --> 00:25:45,260
+ال final بتاع الفصل السادس تبع الإدارة المالية
+
+334
+00:25:45,260 --> 00:25:50,340
+مثلا كان hundred percent في الكتاب و للأسف الشديد
+
+335
+00:25:50,340 --> 00:25:55,440
+يعني مش كتير اتعاملوا معاه بشكل صحيح رغم أن هم
+
+336
+00:25:55,440 --> 00:26:01,060
+الكتاب ف .. هذا أنتوا بتقرروا فيه و مع بعض مقرروا
+
+337
+00:26:01,060 --> 00:26:05,680
+نشوف هل ..فاكروش في الامتحان يعني في اللحظة هذه
+
+338
+00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:10,180
+خليني أفكر في ال .. اه؟ خليني أشوف ال .. ال ..
+
+339
+00:26:10,180 --> 00:26:12,740
+العمادة إيش قرروا في الموضوع، الرئيس القسم هو قرر
+
+340
+00:26:12,740 --> 00:26:18,360
+خلاص يعني تمت .. التوافق على ال .. ال discussion
+
+341
+00:26:18,360 --> 00:26:24,600
+بس هلا ضايل اللحظة متى to run the discussionال ..
+
+342
+00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,040
+ال .. العشر درجات بتاعة ال .. حسب الفصل فات، العشر
+
+343
+00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,000
+درجات بتاعة ال participation و ال attendance كانت
+
+344
+00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:36,000
+من خلال ال discussion، كان يكون عندك ال discussion
+
+345
+00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,640
+لأنه هي أكتر إشي أنت face to face with the tutor
+
+346
+00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:45,600
+بالنسبة للبنات اللي إجوا متأخرين، حد عنده سؤال؟
+
+347
+00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:50,480
+أه؟ أنا كتير يعني مبسوط أن ال .. ال mobiles و
+
+348
+00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,480
+الهادي مش شايفينها، فعلا يعني it's good news
+
+349
+00:26:55,540 --> 00:27:02,660
+محنانيين برضه الناس ليه؟ ال .. الشاطر الأول اللي
+
+350
+00:27:02,660 --> 00:27:05,020
+هو هنحكي بال .. the investment .. investment
+
+351
+00:27:05,020 --> 00:27:09,740
+environments اللي هو البيئة الاستثمارية طبعا في حد
+
+352
+00:27:09,740 --> 00:27:14,600
+يعني صادقا عنده معرفة what it means investment
+
+353
+00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:22,840
+environments investment environments صوت
+
+354
+00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:27,780
+analysis okayيعني strength, weaknesses,
+
+355
+00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,580
+opportunities and threats this is in this
+
+356
+00:27:31,580 --> 00:27:36,960
+environment okay we may accept this swat is using
+
+357
+00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:41,730
+to evaluateOkay, so we evaluate things, we use
+
+358
+00:27:41,730 --> 00:27:45,550
+thought analysis to see whether you are investing
+
+359
+00:27:45,550 --> 00:27:50,350
+in the projects or not is a part of the investment
+
+360
+00:27:50,350 --> 00:27:54,290
+environment هي جزء من investment environment but
+
+361
+00:27:54,290 --> 00:27:58,010
+it is not investment environment يعني كلامك صحيح
+
+362
+00:27:58,010 --> 00:28:06,490
+بس مش كتير okay يعني
+
+363
+00:28:06,490 --> 00:28:09,720
+خلينا نفكر investment environmentلو جينا احنا
+
+364
+00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:15,540
+حكينا حقا .. لو جينا حكينا غزا ايش ال environment
+
+365
+00:28:15,540 --> 00:28:18,580
+اللي عايزنا .. لو احنا قررنا what is the
+
+366
+00:28:18,580 --> 00:28:23,580
+environment in Gaza؟ شو هي؟ خلينا نسمع اراء اخرى
+
+367
+00:28:23,580 --> 00:28:26,460
+.. اخرى .. شوف ال fanarts الورا .. ايش رأيكم؟
+
+368
+00:28:30,700 --> 00:28:33,220
+البيئة الاستثمارية ايش رأيك؟ يعني لو ايجي نحكينا
+
+369
+00:28:33,220 --> 00:28:37,640
+ايه جهة لقاء صح تحكولك؟ what is your opinion on
+
+370
+00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,240
+the investment environments in Gaza؟يعني شو رأيك
+
+371
+00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,520
+من البيئة الاستثمارية في غزة؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+372
+00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,780
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+373
+00:28:45,780 --> 00:28:46,120
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+374
+00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:50,280
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+375
+00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:53,740
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+376
+00:28:53,740 --> 00:28:58,590
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهبال
+
+377
+00:28:58,590 --> 00:29:03,090
+knowledge و بال experience سؤال بسيط شو رأيكم
+
+378
+00:29:03,090 --> 00:29:06,690
+بالاستثمارات او بال .. ال VL استثمارية بنفسك خليني
+
+379
+00:29:06,690 --> 00:29:09,750
+اشوف ايه اكتر اشي استثمار بفرق انه صارت اللي في
+
+380
+00:29:09,750 --> 00:29:16,990
+مباني السكنية ايه؟ ايه استثماري؟ real estate ايه
+
+381
+00:29:16,990 --> 00:29:21,430
+اللي هي حاجتيه اسمه real estate؟ yes okay صح كلامي
+
+382
+00:29:21,430 --> 00:29:27,490
+مظبوط اذا جزء من ال VL استثمارية هو real estate
+
+383
+00:29:29,020 --> 00:29:34,080
+بظبط طيب ال infrastructure بتحكي، هل هو
+
+384
+00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:40,600
+investment؟ بقى بنقرر، هل هو investment؟ اه بقى
+
+385
+00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,780
+بنقرر what is investment and what is non
+
+386
+00:29:42,780 --> 00:29:48,180
+-investment اه it's
+
+387
+00:29:48,180 --> 00:29:55,140
+too hard or risk because we are part of country in
+
+388
+00:29:55,140 --> 00:29:56,600
+occupation، it's not easy
+
+389
+00:29:59,210 --> 00:30:03,210
+Okay so when you talk about investment environment
+
+390
+00:30:03,210 --> 00:30:08,810
+you talk about risk okay that's that's fine ايش
+
+391
+00:30:08,810 --> 00:30:15,670
+كمان خلينا نسمع البنات اللي قدام investment
+
+392
+00:30:15,670 --> 00:30:20,390
+environment هاي الكلام صحيح يعني لما احنا when we
+
+393
+00:30:20,390 --> 00:30:25,030
+talk about investment environments we talk about
+
+394
+00:30:26,350 --> 00:30:29,630
+the securities or the .. we talk about different
+
+395
+00:30:29,630 --> 00:30:33,830
+types of investments so real estate is one of the
+
+396
+00:30:33,830 --> 00:30:40,890
+investment types real estate واحدة منهم بعد هيك
+
+397
+00:30:40,890 --> 00:30:45,550
+إيش هم ال .. ال risk this is the characteristics
+
+398
+00:30:45,550 --> 00:30:49,530
+of the investments هاي مواصفات أو نحكي عن قصائص
+
+399
+00:30:49,530 --> 00:30:54,220
+الاستثمار risk وإيش كمان عكس ال riskrisk عكس ال
+
+400
+00:30:54,220 --> 00:30:58,000
+risk profits بس بال investment ما بنحكي profits
+
+401
+00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:05,340
+بنحكي return okay بنحكي return okay so we have
+
+402
+00:31:05,340 --> 00:31:09,840
+risk and we have return اذا في عندنا ال risk ايش
+
+403
+00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:13,160
+معناها مخاطر و return عاقد طبعا ليش احنا
+
+404
+00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,960
+ماحكيناهاش profits يعني حكت الأخت عن ال profits
+
+405
+00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,920
+ليش احنا ماحكيناه عنها
+
+406
+00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:58,710
+The investors focusing on the returnبي .. بيركزوا
+
+407
+00:31:58,710 --> 00:32:00,810
+على ال return ما بيركزوا على ال profits خلينا نشوف
+
+408
+00:32:00,810 --> 00:32:04,970
+شي عملي ال .. ايش الفرق بين ال return و ال profits
+
+409
+00:32:04,970 --> 00:32:09,470
+شي بسيط لو احنا عندنا project A و project B
+
+410
+00:32:09,470 --> 00:32:16,910
+project A و project B project A ربح الف دولار و
+
+411
+00:32:16,910 --> 00:32:21,410
+project B ربح الف دولار طب ايه أحسن؟ A و لا B؟ انا
+
+412
+00:32:21,410 --> 00:32:25,070
+profits ايه
+
+413
+00:32:25,070 --> 00:32:29,500
+أحسن؟ A و لا B؟we are in difference, in difference
+
+414
+00:32:29,500 --> 00:32:34,360
+يعني مش هناخد قرار لإن both of them have equally
+
+415
+00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:39,800
+profits نفس الربح طيب مثلها الآخر لو هما نفس a و b
+
+416
+00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:46,380
+واحد عشر تلاف خليني نطلع فو عشان ال .. عساس احنا
+
+417
+00:32:46,380 --> 00:32:51,060
+نصحح المفهوم profits و return لو a و b هذا ربح ألف
+
+418
+00:32:51,060 --> 00:32:56,120
+و هذا ربح عشر تلافstill we are talking about
+
+419
+00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,820
+profit which you prefer to invest in A or in B
+
+420
+00:32:58,820 --> 00:33:05,660
+hundred percent in B هنعمل استثمار في B طب نشوف
+
+421
+00:33:05,660 --> 00:33:08,800
+how we change our minds when we consider the
+
+422
+00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:14,340
+return كيف احنا هنغير موضوعنا both of them are
+
+423
+00:33:14,340 --> 00:33:17,140
+profits هذي الف دولار و هذي عشر تلاف دولار احنا
+
+424
+00:33:17,140 --> 00:33:21,900
+ربحنا في A ألف و ربحنا في B عشر تلاف بس احنا
+
+425
+00:33:21,900 --> 00:33:26,840
+هخلينا نقرر انه whywe are not focusing on the
+
+426
+00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:32,440
+profit and we focus on the return احنا مابنركزش
+
+427
+00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,480
+على الربح because the profit is misleading عارفينش
+
+428
+00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:42,460
+عامل misleading misleading يعني مضلل الربح مضلل
+
+429
+00:33:42,460 --> 00:33:47,420
+misleading but the return is accurate and give you
+
+430
+00:33:47,420 --> 00:33:51,700
+indication whether to invest or notخلّيني أشوف، لو
+
+431
+00:33:51,700 --> 00:33:54,320
+أجينا .. أنا أعطيكوا معلومات، highly profit، صب ..
+
+432
+00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,960
+احنا لازم .. زي ما احنا بنربح، لازم نشوف كام احنا
+
+433
+00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:02,600
+استثمرنا، عشان نقرر ان احنا العقل .. العقل استثمر،
+
+434
+00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:09,040
+لو أجينا احنا هان ال investments،
+
+435
+00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:15,600
+احنا هان دفعنا ميد .. نيجي نحكي مثلا، دفعنا five
+
+436
+00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,060
+thousand dollar، عملنا investments
+
+437
+00:34:20,980 --> 00:34:25,860
+و هان استثمرنا two million او نحكي one million
+
+438
+00:34:25,860 --> 00:34:33,840
+okay we invest one million we get ten thousand
+
+439
+00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:38,480
+dollar we invest five thousand dollar we get one
+
+440
+00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:43,000
+thousand هبقى نحسي بشغل اسمها ال return ال return
+
+441
+00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,700
+بيخصوه في عدة وسائل خلينا بس مبدئيا return on
+
+442
+00:34:45,700 --> 00:34:50,370
+investmentنخسر ال profit على ال investment دي
+
+443
+00:34:50,370 --> 00:34:57,830
+الألف تقسيم خمس تلاف okay هذا بنخسر العشر تلاف على
+
+444
+00:34:57,830 --> 00:35:02,130
+المليون يعني إيش معناه الكلام هذا الرجال معاه
+
+445
+00:35:02,130 --> 00:35:07,050
+مليون دولار ربح عشر تلاف دولار يعني حط المليون
+
+446
+00:35:07,050 --> 00:35:10,510
+دولار تبعته في اشتراك عام المبنى مثلا مليون دولار
+
+447
+00:35:10,510 --> 00:35:14,930
+عام المبنى المبنى ربح فيه عشر تلاف دولار واحد تاني
+
+448
+00:35:14,930 --> 00:35:18,170
+معاه خمس تلاف دولار شاطرعمل الف دولار من ورا
+
+449
+00:35:18,170 --> 00:35:22,710
+هالشغلة فبنشوف شو العائد على هذا وعائد على هذا هذا
+
+450
+00:35:22,710 --> 00:35:25,490
+العائد تبقى كم؟ اشرين في المية صح؟ الف على خمس
+
+451
+00:35:25,490 --> 00:35:33,190
+تلاف كم؟ اشرين في المية هذا العشر تلاف على مليون
+
+452
+00:35:33,190 --> 00:35:37,450
+كم؟ واحد بال .. بالمية واحد في المية، مظبوط؟
+
+453
+00:35:37,450 --> 00:35:41,790
+اعملوها، شوفوها واحد في المية؟ واحد في المية طب
+
+454
+00:35:41,790 --> 00:35:46,300
+إذا هذا معناه كلام هذا ال twenty percentيعني حط
+
+455
+00:35:46,300 --> 00:35:50,400
+دولار واحد في المشروع جابله عشرين cents هذا حط
+
+456
+00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:56,800
+دولار واحد في المشروع حطاه واحد من عشرة cents اذا
+
+457
+00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:01,920
+ايه احسن مثال بسيط شوف ال chefs تبع الأولاد الصغار
+
+458
+00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:07,060
+وكيس الطحين مثال بسيط التاجر مثلا بكيس الطحين ممكن
+
+459
+00:36:07,060 --> 00:36:14,470
+يربح شاكل كام دفع؟ دفع سبعين شاكلعشان يجيب شكل من
+
+460
+00:36:14,470 --> 00:36:18,910
+كيس طحين تشوفوا الاستثمار كيف لكن في chips تبع
+
+461
+00:36:18,910 --> 00:36:24,470
+الأطفال ممكن هو دفع تلاتين أجورا عامل عشرين أجورا
+
+462
+00:36:25,650 --> 00:36:29,290
+بيبيعوا للولاد الصغير بخمسين .. خمسين نص .. نص
+
+463
+00:36:29,290 --> 00:36:34,770
+شاكل طب عمليا مين الربح؟ كيس الطحين أكتر ولا ال ..
+
+464
+00:36:34,770 --> 00:36:39,530
+ال chips .. الاطفال دفعنا .. احنا بس تلاتين ..
+
+465
+00:36:39,530 --> 00:36:43,370
+تلاتين أجورة عملنا عشرين أجورة منهم فجداش العائد
+
+466
+00:36:43,370 --> 00:36:45,730
+علينا؟ العائد علينا انه احنا العشرين هدول اللي
+
+467
+00:36:45,730 --> 00:36:48,890
+هيبيعوا بخمسين طبعا العشرين على تلاتين شوفوا كام
+
+468
+00:36:48,890 --> 00:36:52,650
+ربحنا من ورا الشغلة وبكيس الطحين احنا شاكل دفعنا
+
+469
+00:36:52,650 --> 00:36:56,890
+.. دفعنا سبعين شاكل وحصلنا ع شاكل واحدشوفتوا كيف
+
+470
+00:36:56,890 --> 00:37:01,210
+ال .. فهنربحنا .. هنربحنا شاكل؟ في كيسة طحين
+
+471
+00:37:01,210 --> 00:37:04,590
+نربحنا شاكل صراحة؟ و بال chips تبع الأطفال كام
+
+472
+00:37:04,590 --> 00:37:11,510
+نربحنا عشرين أجورا؟ طب انا و .. أحسن أربح شاكل في
+
+473
+00:37:11,510 --> 00:37:15,850
+كيسة طحين و لا أربح عشرين cent و لا عشرين أجورا في
+
+474
+00:37:15,850 --> 00:37:23,680
+chips الأطفال عشرين أجورا ليه؟ عشان البريطانلو انا
+
+475
+00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,920
+.. عشان العائد العائد انا العشرين انا دفعت كام
+
+476
+00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,440
+عشان حصلت على ال .. على العشرين؟ دفعت انا تلاتين
+
+477
+00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:33,560
+لحدي chips شوفوا قداش التلتين يعني انا ربحت خمسة و
+
+478
+00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:38,140
+سبعين تلمينا طب انا دفعت كام؟ انا سبعين بقت اكيس
+
+479
+00:37:38,140 --> 00:37:40,940
+الطحين بواحد و سبعين وبالتالي انا واحد على سبعين
+
+480
+00:37:40,940 --> 00:37:46,220
+شوفوا قداش تفتوا كام؟ فالبقوش يعني مثلا اللي بيبيع
+
+481
+00:37:46,220 --> 00:37:50,200
+اكيس الطحين مش فاهم ازاي ممكن احنا نبيع ال .. علكة
+
+482
+00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,720
+الأطفال هذهأو الألعاب الأفضل تجيب إيرادات أعلى من
+
+483
+00:37:54,720 --> 00:37:57,800
+الشغلات اللي احنا بفكر فيها this is why انه احنا
+
+484
+00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:02,800
+مش كتير بنتركز على ال profit بنتركز على وضح اشر
+
+485
+00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:07,040
+فرق ليش احنا ماحكينا عشان profit حكينا return و
+
+486
+00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:11,680
+هذا بحياتكوا العملية تتطقو طب احنا نقف عند هذا
+
+487
+00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:15,620
+الحد ان شاء الله و اللقاء الجاي بنبدأ نحكي
+
+488
+00:38:15,620 --> 00:38:19,760
+بالتفاصيل و حابين احنا مشاركة منكم
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/8zptgmDPa7g.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/8zptgmDPa7g.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..51b96983e98ef0cb5d22172a8a26cdfca03f9201
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/8zptgmDPa7g.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1363 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:23,650
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة اللي فاتت كنا نحكي عن
+
+2
+00:00:23,650 --> 00:00:27,950
+الـ margin بس لما كنا نحكي بالـ margin كنا
+
+3
+00:00:27,950 --> 00:00:33,050
+نبدأ بالـ buy نبدأ عملية شراء بس اليوم نحكي إذا كان
+
+4
+00:00:33,050 --> 00:00:40,450
+نبدأ بـ margin بعملية بيع آه موبايل مين نبدأ عملية
+
+5
+00:00:40,450 --> 00:00:44,870
+بيع كيف تتم عملية البيع احنا شرحنا لكم المرة اللي
+
+6
+00:00:44,870 --> 00:00:50,740
+فاتت الـ short sale مظبوط الـ short sale احنا بنبدأ 
+
+7
+00:00:50,740 --> 00:00:53,800
+الـ 
+
+8
+00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:58,240
+مرة ثانية حكينا عن short sale short sale لأ حكينا
+
+9
+00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:03,760
+حكينا عن short sale أن احنا بنبدأ بـ sale فاكرين لما 
+
+10
+00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:10,580
+حكينا أن احنا نسلف mobile و بنبيعه حكينا عنه اللي
+
+11
+00:01:10,580 --> 00:01:14,440
+هو هذا اسمه short sale الـ short sale ببدأ إذا احنا
+
+12
+00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:22,830
+كنا بنبدأ في عملية بيع نبدأ بيع كيف نبدأ بيع؟ نبدأ
+
+13
+00:01:22,830 --> 00:01:26,550
+بيع الهاتف تمام بعد ما ن .. we borrow the .. the
+
+14
+00:01:26,550 --> 00:01:30,450
+mobile or we borrow the stock نضبط احنا we
+
+15
+00:01:30,450 --> 00:01:36,690
+starting by borrowing the stock borrow stock or
+
+16
+00:01:36,690 --> 00:01:40,090
+mobile زي ما احنا اعطيناكم المرة الفاتة نبدأ بيع
+
+17
+00:01:40,090 --> 00:01:45,670
+الهاتف okay بعد ما نأخذ موبايل يكون الـ expectations
+
+18
+00:01:45,670 --> 00:01:50,530
+تبعتنا الـ prices will go down الأسعار هتنخفض طبعا
+
+19
+00:01:50,530 --> 00:02:01,230
+لو احنا أخدنا مثلا شوفنا كيف بيصير لو كان احنا
+
+20
+00:02:01,230 --> 00:02:07,170
+عندنا هذا الـ chart وهي
+
+21
+00:02:07,170 --> 00:02:12,730
+الأسعار هتتذبذب الأسعار الـ prices هذه الـ prices
+
+22
+00:02:12,730 --> 00:02:16,490
+okay زي ما أنتم شايفين شوفوا السعر وين وصل أعلى
+
+23
+00:02:16,490 --> 00:02:24,190
+حد في المرحلة هذه مسموح الـ broker يدين الـ investor
+
+24
+00:02:24,190 --> 00:02:29,130
+لكن لو حكينا مثلا لو كانت الأسعار بهذه الطريقة هذه
+
+25
+00:02:32,190 --> 00:02:35,950
+هنالك احتمالات الانخفاض أكثر من احتمالات الارتفاع أو
+
+26
+00:02:35,950 --> 00:02:39,410
+احتمالات الارتفاع أكثر من احتمالات الانخفاض فهنالك الـ
+
+27
+00:02:39,410 --> 00:02:42,630
+.. الـ broker ما بيعطيش .. بيدينش الـ .. الـ investor
+
+28
+00:02:42,630 --> 00:02:48,570
+الـ stocks فالـ short sale غالبا بيسير لما يكون الـ
+
+29
+00:02:48,570 --> 00:02:52,570
+.. الـ market up لما يكون الـ market up فبيكون
+
+30
+00:02:52,570 --> 00:02:57,650
+احتمالات الانخفاض أكثر من احتمالات الارتفاع فلو
+
+31
+00:02:57,650 --> 00:03:04,200
+جينا احنا هنالك الـ stock we borrow stock from the
+
+32
+00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,500
+broker احنا نأخذ stock من الـ broker دلوقت ما
+
+33
+00:03:07,500 --> 00:03:11,240
+نأخذش فلوس we borrow stocks for instance we
+
+34
+00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:16,160
+borrow one hundred stocks we sell them off احنا
+
+35
+00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:21,520
+نبيعهم دلوقت احنا ما اشترينا احنا we start
+
+36
+00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:26,200
+selling off the stock كان السعر على one hundred
+
+37
+00:03:28,350 --> 00:03:31,170
+بعناها على one hundred فصار في جيبنا كام؟ مية
+
+38
+00:03:31,170 --> 00:03:35,550
+دولار لو كان عندنا مية share فبيصير عندنا مية في
+
+39
+00:03:35,550 --> 00:03:42,010
+مية كم؟ عشرة آلاف دولار okay هلأ الأسعار starting
+
+40
+00:03:42,010 --> 00:03:48,710
+to go down till for instance sixty حتى وصلت ستين
+
+41
+00:03:48,710 --> 00:03:53,930
+طبعا عند المرحلة هذه ممكن احنا بنعمل إذا عملنا
+
+42
+00:03:53,930 --> 00:04:00,440
+sell هنالك ايش هنعمل هنالك؟ هنعمل buy ليش نعمل buy؟
+
+43
+00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:05,640
+عشان نرجع الـ stocks لمن؟ للـ .. للـ broker فلما نعمل
+
+44
+00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:11,640
+buy ستين اللي هو ستين .. ستين سهم في .. ستين دولار
+
+45
+00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:16,620
+عفوا في مية سهم تطلع كام؟ ستة آلاف دولار لما نعمل
+
+46
+00:04:16,620 --> 00:04:21,000
+buy بيطلع من .. من جيبنا فلوس نشتري فكام ربحنا من
+
+47
+00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:26,720
+ورا هالشغل هاي؟ أربعة آلاف دولار four thousand
+
+48
+00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:34,820
+dollar okay لكن مثلا بعد أسبوع بعد أسبوع بعد أسبوع
+
+49
+00:04:34,820 --> 00:04:40,300
+الأسعار كانت متخفضة نازلة إذا في الـ short sale الـ
+
+50
+00:04:40,300 --> 00:04:45,640
+investors they prefer the prices to go down الـ
+
+51
+00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:48,460
+investors لما بيكونوا عاملين short sale بفضلوا
+
+52
+00:04:48,460 --> 00:04:52,380
+الأسعار تنخفض لأنه كل ما انخفضت الأسعار كل ما
+
+53
+00:04:52,380 --> 00:04:57,580
+يزيد الربح تبعهم وهذا سبب عمل الـ financial crisis
+
+54
+00:04:57,580 --> 00:05:03,840
+عمل سبب مش .. مش هو السبب الرئيسي لكن one of the
+
+55
+00:05:03,840 --> 00:05:06,640
+.. the .. the important or the major problem in
+
+56
+00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,720
+the .. in the financial market crisis is the short
+
+57
+00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,940
+sale يعني هذا عمل برضه مشكلة في الأزمة المالية
+
+58
+00:05:12,940 --> 00:05:15,680
+يعني خلينا نحكي مثلا this group prefer the prices
+
+59
+00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:19,160
+to go down and this group prefer the prices to go
+
+60
+00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:22,900
+up يعني في صار في السوق ناس مصلحتهم السوق ينزل و
+
+61
+00:05:22,900 --> 00:05:27,700
+في ناس مصلحتهم السوق يطلع and if the .. if the
+
+62
+00:05:27,700 --> 00:05:30,860
+number of people prefer the prices to go down
+
+63
+00:05:30,860 --> 00:05:34,180
+exceed the number of people prefer the prices to
+
+64
+00:05:34,180 --> 00:05:37,700
+go up so the financial market will go down يعني
+
+65
+00:05:37,700 --> 00:05:40,920
+إذا كان عدد الناس اللي بفضله للسوق ينزل أكثر من
+
+66
+00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,740
+عدد الناس اللي بفضله السوق يطلع وبالتالي السوق
+
+67
+00:05:43,740 --> 00:05:49,040
+هينزل هذا بيعمل الـ .. make the financial crisis
+
+68
+00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:53,280
+worse and worse يعني بعمق الأزمة المالية so the ..
+
+69
+00:05:53,280 --> 00:05:56,800
+the financial market committee or the security
+
+70
+00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:00,340
+exchange commission stopped the short sales in
+
+71
+00:06:00,340 --> 00:06:07,060
+2009 and 2008 في الـ 2008 و 2009 وقفوا الـ short
+
+72
+00:06:07,060 --> 00:06:12,180
+sale لأنه صار في ناس مصلحتهم السوق ينزل ومصلحة الـ
+
+73
+00:06:12,180 --> 00:06:16,240
+financial market commission أنه بدهم السوق يطلع ف
+
+74
+00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,960
+they stop people who prefer that the financial
+
+75
+00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:24,800
+market is going down فهذه مش بسيطة الـ short sale
+
+76
+00:06:26,390 --> 00:06:30,610
+فهي الربح طيب المشكلة وين؟ if the prices goes up
+
+77
+00:06:30,610 --> 00:06:38,090
+إذا الأسعار طلعت okay for instance let's say if
+
+78
+00:06:38,090 --> 00:06:42,970
+the prices goes to 120 so
+
+79
+00:06:42,970 --> 00:06:47,710
+he .. he want to buy the .. the stocks at 120 so
+
+80
+00:06:47,710 --> 00:06:54,110
+we have 120 times 100 so he has to pay 12000 or
+
+81
+00:06:54,110 --> 00:07:01,160
+12000 Okay twelve thousands minus and ten thousand
+
+82
+00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:06,380
+plus so he or she lost minus two thousands بيخسر
+
+83
+00:07:06,380 --> 00:07:14,680
+ألفين consider that انتبهوا للـ short sale الـ short
+
+84
+00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:20,500
+sale at the beginning he paid nothing في البداية
+
+85
+00:07:20,500 --> 00:07:26,120
+هو ما دفعش شيء and when he lost 2000 he lost from
+
+86
+00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:29,680
+the broker account هو خسر من .. من أموال الـ broker
+
+87
+00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:34,400
+because of this situation بهذا السبب الـ broker
+
+88
+00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:39,260
+asking the investor to put collateral الـ .. الـ
+
+89
+00:07:39,260 --> 00:07:42,860
+broker اللي هو الـ .. الـ .. السمسار أو الـ dealer
+
+90
+00:07:42,860 --> 00:07:47,600
+بيطلب من الـ investor يحط collateral collateral يعني
+
+91
+00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:54,440
+ضمانات Okay? So if he lost his money, it means he
+
+92
+00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:57,760
+lost his collateral. إذا بيخسر الفلوس، بده يخسر من
+
+93
+00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:00,100
+الـ collateral تبعته، من الضمانات، not from the
+
+94
+00:08:00,100 --> 00:08:04,160
+broker fund،
+
+95
+00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,400
+ليش من فلوس الـ broker؟ يعني احنا خلينا نرجع للـ
+
+96
+00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:11,580
+short sale. لما صار في .. عندنا sale، الـ investors
+
+97
+00:08:11,580 --> 00:08:16,230
+ما دفعش شيء مباشر راح ودّين الـ .. الـ stocks دين
+
+98
+00:08:16,230 --> 00:08:21,930
+وراح باعهم وعمل الصفقة تبعتهم he paid nothing طب
+
+99
+00:08:21,930 --> 00:08:26,310
+هذا ممكن يعمل مشاكل في الأسواق المالية okay فعشان
+
+100
+00:08:26,310 --> 00:08:31,610
+هيك الـ .. الـ broker asking the .. the investors to
+
+101
+00:08:31,610 --> 00:08:34,370
+put collateral ممكن الـ collateral تكون deposit
+
+102
+00:08:34,370 --> 00:08:40,530
+وديعة ممكن تكون treasury bills bonds anything Okay
+
+103
+00:08:40,530 --> 00:08:45,050
+and this collateral is considered as a margin عشان
+
+104
+00:08:45,050 --> 00:08:48,230
+نرجع لما هو فكرة الـ margin الـ collateral تعتبر ايش
+
+105
+00:08:48,230 --> 00:08:54,970
+margin يعني هامش okay بناء عليه بي .. بيعمل الـ
+
+106
+00:08:54,970 --> 00:09:00,870
+investor trades okay فنرجع للـ short sale الهدف من
+
+107
+00:09:00,870 --> 00:09:05,370
+الـ short sale زي ما أنا حكيت لكم the main objective
+
+108
+00:09:05,370 --> 00:09:09,310
+of the short sale to profit from a decline زي ما
+
+109
+00:09:09,310 --> 00:09:15,030
+تشوفين in the prices of stock or security يعني
+
+110
+00:09:15,030 --> 00:09:20,570
+الهدف أنه احنا نربح كل ما السوق نزل okay بعكس إذا
+
+111
+00:09:20,570 --> 00:09:26,620
+أنا بدأت buy احنا بنربح لما السوق يرتفع يطلع Okay
+
+112
+00:09:26,620 --> 00:09:31,260
+لما أنا بعمل buy بشتري بربح لما السوق يطلع لما كنت
+
+113
+00:09:31,260 --> 00:09:38,260
+ببدأ في sell بربح لما السوق يبدأ ينزل mechanics
+
+114
+00:09:38,260 --> 00:09:42,420
+the mechanisms of doing this I explained this but
+
+115
+00:09:42,420 --> 00:09:47,160
+just to to give you more details the mechanisms of
+
+116
+00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,160
+doing this borrow stock through a dealer زي ما
+
+117
+00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:53,100
+حكينا في البداية from the buyer stock be careful
+
+118
+00:09:53,100 --> 00:09:57,840
+we are borrowing stock احنا بندين ايش؟ Stock and
+
+119
+00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:01,040
+when we pay back, we pay back Stock كمان لما
+
+120
+00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:06,780
+نرجع، بنرجع ايش؟ بنرجع Stock the second sell it
+
+121
+00:10:06,780 --> 00:10:11,580
+and deposit proceeds and margin in accounts بنبيع
+
+122
+00:10:11,580 --> 00:10:16,720
+المبلغ، بنبيع الـ security sell it اللي هو احنا
+
+123
+00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:23,970
+جابلنا احنا بيبنيناها بيبنيناها بعشرة آلاف صح؟ زائد
+
+124
+00:10:23,970 --> 00:10:29,170
+انتبهوا and deposit في عندنا بنبيع وكمان في وديعة
+
+125
+00:10:29,170 --> 00:10:31,850
+لازم نحطها اللي هو اللي حكينا عنها اللي هو الضمانة 
+
+126
+00:10:31,850 --> 00:10:36,330
+and deposit proceeds and margin in account كمان
+
+127
+00:10:36,330 --> 00:10:40,290
+بنودعهم والضمانات في نفترض الضمانات كانت خمسين ألف
+
+128
+00:10:40,290 --> 00:10:44,610
+دولار فسعر كم في حساب ال .. مية وخمسين ألف دولار
+
+129
+00:10:44,610 --> 00:10:53,790
+خمسين ألف زائد .. عفوا نفترض خمسة آلاف دولار Okay
+
+130
+00:10:53,790 --> 00:10:56,310
+بيصير خمسة عشر ألف دولار عشان طبعا هي المبلغ اللي
+
+131
+00:10:56,310 --> 00:11:00,050
+بيطلبه ال broker من ال Tesla لإيجاره قبل ما .. عشان
+
+132
+00:11:00,050 --> 00:11:03,010
+ليه السلسلة؟ اه اللي هو الدولار .. لأ لأ هذا بيختلف
+
+133
+00:11:03,010 --> 00:11:07,290
+شوية احنا بنحكي عن short sale اه في ال .. في ال ..
+
+134
+00:11:07,290 --> 00:11:10,790
+في ال buying العادي بيطلبه زي ما أنت حكيته بيطلب
+
+135
+00:11:10,790 --> 00:11:14,610
+منه فلوس يبدأ يشتغل فيهم بس في short sale لأن هو
+
+136
+00:11:14,610 --> 00:11:18,670
+ما بدأش يشتري بيبدأ في بيع .. في بيع okay فهو بيدعي
+
+137
+00:11:18,670 --> 00:11:25,020
+يعني stocks فبيطلب منه إنه يكون في عنده ضمانة اللي
+
+138
+00:11:25,020 --> 00:11:32,160
+هو وديعة مثلا أو أي شيء okay فبعد ما يبيع ال .. ال
+
+139
+00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:36,580
+stocks بوضعهم في حساب ال broker  وبإضافة للضمانة
+
+140
+00:11:36,580 --> 00:11:39,640
+بيصير عنده خمسة عشر ألف اللي هو عشر آلاف ال stocks
+
+141
+00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,300
+اللي باعها والخمسة آلاف اللي هو الضمانة بتاعته
+
+142
+00:11:44,500 --> 00:11:47,660
+after a period of time بعد فترة معينة هم متفقين
+
+143
+00:11:47,660 --> 00:11:51,060
+أنه هم يتدينوا مثلا مبلغ لمدة أسبوع أو شهر أو
+
+144
+00:11:51,060 --> 00:11:55,520
+الذي هو okay closing out the position بعد هذه
+
+145
+00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,600
+الفترة بيصير إغلاق لل position يعني مثلا إذا كان
+
+146
+00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:07,620
+بنخفض بربح وإذا كان برتفع بيخسر okay and after he
+
+147
+00:12:07,620 --> 00:12:10,000
+or she closed the position بعد ما هم يسكروا ال
+
+148
+00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:15,270
+position  سيعود the investor has to .. to retain
+
+149
+00:12:15,270 --> 00:12:21,130
+the stocks to the .. to the broker لازم ارجع ليش؟
+
+150
+00:12:21,130 --> 00:12:29,750
+ال stocks لل broker واضحة طيب أسهم
+
+151
+00:12:29,750 --> 00:12:32,290
+بسهم مش فلوس دلوقت هذي يعني is a matter of
+
+152
+00:12:32,290 --> 00:12:36,340
+confusion So be careful on your exam, try to answer
+
+153
+00:12:36,340 --> 00:12:39,300
+the questions at the end of this chapter, there is
+
+154
+00:12:39,300 --> 00:12:42,220
+at least you have three or four questions about the
+
+155
+00:12:42,220 --> 00:12:45,980
+short sales موجود عندكم حوالي ثلاث أربع أسئلة على
+
+156
+00:12:45,980 --> 00:12:51,080
+هذا الموضوع خليني آخذ مثال المهم أنه درجة أسنان
+
+157
+00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,500
+أسفل كيف هتتعرف بسرعة و تتعرف بسرعة
+
+158
+00:12:57,820 --> 00:13:02,160
+كيف هتظهر ربح والخسارة طيب هلأ خليني أفكر هان هو
+
+159
+00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:06,060
+الدايا ليه تساهم صح؟ أخذ الأسهم أخذ الأسهم هلأ
+
+160
+00:13:06,060 --> 00:13:10,780
+الأسهم معاه فراح باع الأسهم على 100 دولار فكان في
+
+161
+00:13:10,780 --> 00:13:16,380
+.. في حسابه اه okay عشر آلاف نفترض عشر آلاف سبب
+
+162
+00:13:16,380 --> 00:13:21,250
+هلأ إذا if the price is going up he will lose if
+
+163
+00:13:21,250 --> 00:13:25,950
+the prices go down he will make a profit ليش؟ لأن هو هذا
+
+164
+00:13:25,950 --> 00:13:30,190
+باعهم فدخل في ال pocket مية دولار مصاري الف دولار
+
+165
+00:13:30,190 --> 00:13:33,850
+هلأ لما ينزل السعر بدو يشتريه عشان يرجع ال stocks
+
+166
+00:13:33,850 --> 00:13:37,990
+فنزل السعر لستين دولار فكداش بده يدفع عشان يشتري
+
+167
+00:13:37,990 --> 00:13:44,960
+الأسهم ستين دولار فبيطلع من جيبته ستين دولار فبيربح
+
+168
+00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,020
+ستين اللي طلعوا اللي هو هنا المية دخلوا في ال ..
+
+169
+00:13:48,020 --> 00:13:51,800
+في الجيبة تبعته وستين طلعوا فبيطلع ربحان أربعين
+
+170
+00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:56,660
+دولار أربعين في مثلا في مية سهم بيطلع ربحه أربع
+
+171
+00:13:56,660 --> 00:14:01,600
+آلاف سهم لو كان في deposit في حسابه بيقول أربع
+
+172
+00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:05,140
+آلاف زائد خمسة آلاف بيصير عنده تسعة آلاف دولار في
+
+173
+00:14:05,140 --> 00:14:07,860
+حسابه okay هسيئ مثلا
+
+174
+00:14:11,630 --> 00:14:17,350
+Okay let's take a example هنا دعنا نأخذ مثال مثال
+
+175
+00:14:17,350 --> 00:14:20,830
+آخر dot
+
+176
+00:14:20,830 --> 00:14:25,710
+bomb dot bomb يعني شركة اشترت بدها تعمل one
+
+177
+00:14:25,710 --> 00:14:32,590
+thousand shares short sale يعني هم بدهم يتدينوا ألف
+
+178
+00:14:32,590 --> 00:14:35,690
+سهم احنا كنا في مثالنا مية صح احنا هنا بناخد ألف
+
+179
+00:14:35,690 --> 00:14:40,610
+سهم اتدينوا ألف سهم okay fifty percent initial
+
+180
+00:14:40,610 --> 00:14:44,050
+margin ايش يعني هال initial margin fifty percent
+
+181
+00:14:44,050 --> 00:14:49,330
+هي ال collateral خمسين في المية عشان نعرف كام
+
+182
+00:14:49,330 --> 00:14:54,070
+خمسين في المية لها ال initial margin يعني ال
+
+183
+00:14:54,070 --> 00:14:56,270
+collateral اللي هو الضمان المطلوب خمسين في المية
+
+184
+00:14:56,270 --> 00:14:59,910
+اللي هو ال deposit اللي تاعتي حكينا فيها 30% is
+
+185
+00:14:59,910 --> 00:15:04,030
+the maintenance margin ايش ال maintenance margin؟
+
+186
+00:15:04,030 --> 00:15:08,750
+يلا اشرحتلكم يا مرة فاتت maintenance margin هامش
+
+187
+00:15:08,750 --> 00:15:13,330
+الصيانة طب ايش هذا .. ليش هامش الصيانة؟ ليش
+
+188
+00:15:13,330 --> 00:15:16,530
+بنعمله؟ ليش ال broker بيعمل هامش الصيانة؟
+
+189
+00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:23,380
+أه لأنه إذا ال .. إذا ال investor بيضلوا يتاجر
+
+190
+00:15:23,380 --> 00:15:29,920
+فهيخسر فلوسه فهو زي ما حكينا لكم أنه في ethics بال
+
+191
+00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,380
+financial markets انتبهوا لكلام اللي بحكيه في
+
+192
+00:15:33,380 --> 00:15:35,680
+ethics بال financial markets بال financial market
+
+193
+00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:40,160
+إذا شافوا واحد وخاصة in the .. in the high
+
+194
+00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:44,180
+regulated markets في ال high regulated markets في
+
+195
+00:15:44,180 --> 00:15:47,240
+يعني أسواق مالية فيها تعليمات قوية وخاصة بعد
+
+196
+00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:51,140
+الأزمة العالمية شو اللي بيصير؟ إذا شافوا investors
+
+197
+00:15:51,140 --> 00:15:54,820
+جايب معاه فلوس نفترض أنه جايب معاه مية ألف دولار
+
+198
+00:15:54,820 --> 00:16:01,160
+أو بدأ يعمل trades خسر الأول عشر آلاف بعدين خسر
+
+199
+00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,900
+العشر آلاف اللي بعديها so the dealer has to stop
+
+200
+00:16:04,900 --> 00:16:10,740
+him ال dealer لازم يوقفه because if he continues
+
+201
+00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:16,580
+إذا ضلوا يكمل he will lose all of his money هيخسر
+
+202
+00:16:16,580 --> 00:16:20,700
+كل فلوسه so from ethical perspective from ethical
+
+203
+00:16:20,700 --> 00:16:25,760
+perspective the dealer asks him to stop because if
+
+204
+00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:30,540
+he continues he will lose his money okay and if he
+
+205
+00:16:30,540 --> 00:16:34,560
+didn't listen to the dealer the dealer will close
+
+206
+00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:38,600
+and ask him to take your money and go to your mom
+
+207
+00:16:39,810 --> 00:16:43,050
+know how to trade and coming back روح روح واتعلم
+
+208
+00:16:43,050 --> 00:16:46,730
+كيف تشتغل وبعدين ارجع لنا so this is ethical
+
+209
+00:16:46,730 --> 00:16:50,930
+things in the financial market so the idea here is
+
+210
+00:16:50,930 --> 00:16:56,430
+the financial market tries to protect the investor
+
+211
+00:16:56,430 --> 00:17:05,180
+wealth okay and because of this العامل يطلب من
+
+212
+00:17:05,180 --> 00:17:08,640
+المستخدم أن يقوم باستخدام كولاترال في هذه الحالة
+
+213
+00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:16,080
+50% وهو المقارنة الأولى إذا كان المستخدم يستمر في
+
+214
+00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:20,680
+فقدر ماله في مقارنة التعامل سيفعل مقارنة التعامل
+
+215
+00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,720
+الشركة أو العامل يفعل مقارنة التعامل يطلب منه مال
+
+216
+00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:28,840
+إضافي إذا لم يسمع العامل يغلق الموقع
+
+217
+00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:37,280
+الـ 30% our question is هي what is the price at
+
+218
+00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:43,720
+which the .. the broker makes the .. the
+
+219
+00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,560
+maintenance call تعتقدوا هيكون السعر أعلى من 100
+
+220
+00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:52,760
+ولا أقل من 100؟ أشوف شطارتكم لما يعمل maintenance
+
+221
+00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,140
+.. maintenance call or maintenance margin ال
+
+222
+00:17:55,140 --> 00:17:58,860
+broker أعلى من 100 أعلى من 100؟ ليش أعلى من 100؟
+
+223
+00:17:58,860 --> 00:18:03,180
+أهي لأن بعد المية بتبقى الخسارة لأن it is not worth
+
+224
+00:18:03,180 --> 0:18:06,320
+to do maintenance margin below one hundred because
+
+225
+00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,020
+below one hundred the investor is making profits
+
+226
+00:18:09,020 --> 00:18:14,400
+بيعمل profits but above one hundred the yes the
+
+227
+00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:19,240
+broker starts to lose his money so this is why
+
+228
+00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:23,420
+the maintenance margin is at a price above the one
+
+229
+00:18:23,420 --> 00:18:26,520
+hundred على سعر أعلى من ال one hundred okay
+
+230
+00:18:31,390 --> 00:18:35,470
+Okay so now let's carry on the initial price is
+
+231
+00:18:35,470 --> 00:18:40,530
+one hundred فلو احنا حسبنا حساب بسيط احنا عندنا
+
+232
+00:18:40,530 --> 00:18:44,270
+ألف سهم من البداية صح one thousand times one
+
+233
+00:18:44,270 --> 00:18:51,150
+hundred فبيطلع عندنا مية ألف دولار صح ال initial
+
+234
+00:18:51,150 --> 00:18:54,770
+margin fifty percent يعني ال collateral fifty
+
+235
+00:18:54,770 --> 00:18:59,080
+percent كداش لازم ندفع collateral خمسين ألف فبتكون
+
+236
+00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,340
+عندنا في الخمسين ألف وديه treasure bills any
+
+237
+00:19:02,340 --> 00:19:07,660
+collateral okay هلأ بضل عندنا احنا نعرف ال .. ال
+
+238
+00:19:07,660 --> 00:19:10,060
+initial .. ال .. ال .. ال maintenance margin
+
+239
+00:19:10,060 --> 00:19:14,900
+فاكرين احنا بالأول كنا نحسب ال maintenance margin
+
+240
+00:19:14,900 --> 00:19:21,040
+طيب هلأ هيفصلناها ال sales proceeds مائة ألف ليها
+
+241
+00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:25,540
+حسبناها وال margin and equity fifty percent اللي
+
+242
+00:19:25,540 --> 00:19:29,940
+هي ال collateral وال stock owed اللي دياناهم ألف
+
+243
+00:19:29,940 --> 00:19:36,240
+سهم just for more explanation في حد مش فاهم لحد
+
+244
+00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:40,820
+اللحظة هذه الأرقام من وين اجت واضحة okay هلا بدنا
+
+245
+00:19:40,820 --> 00:19:44,180
+نفسر ال asset وال liabilities ايش ال asset الأصول
+
+246
+00:19:44,180 --> 00:19:47,700
+بتاعة ال investor ولا الانتزامات العالية لل
+
+247
+00:19:47,700 --> 00:19:51,400
+investors طيب لو احنا فرضنا
+
+248
+00:19:55,340 --> 00:20:03,640
+عمل سن العالمية والأسعار fortunately it's went to
+
+249
+00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:08,770
+seventy الأسعار نزلت لسبعين فربح ال .. ال
+
+250
+00:20:08,770 --> 00:20:16,210
+industrial؟ ثلاثين ثلاثين في كم سهم؟ ألف one 
+
+251
+00:20:16,210 --> 00:20:20,770
+ثلاثين ألف ف تلاتين ألف طيب إذا في ال asset طبعا
+
+252
+00:20:20,770 --> 00:20:23,550
+توقع ثلاثين ألف بس ثلاثين ألف في ال asset والضمان
+
+253
+00:20:23,550 --> 00:20:30,570
+زائد ضمان خمسين ألف بتطلع كام؟ ثمانين ألف هذا إذا 
+
+254
+00:20:30,570 --> 00:20:38,750
+if the price going as he expected زي إذا كانت
+
+255
+00:20:38,750 --> 00:20:45,610
+الأسعار زي ما توقعنا إذا
+
+256
+00:20:45,610 --> 00:20:49,510
+كانت الأسعار زي ما توقعنا okay so if the price
+
+257
+00:20:49,510 --> 00:20:54,290
+goes as we expected it means we make a profit
+
+258
+00:20:54,290 --> 00:20:58,230
+thirty thousand plus fifty thousand is the
+
+259
+00:20:58,230 --> 00:21:01,790
+collateral so in our assets we will have eighty
+
+260
+00:21:01,790 --> 00:21:07,440
+thousand of them 30,000 profit and 50,000 as
+
+261
+00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:11,820
+collateral or as deposit or treasury bills زي ما
+
+262
+00:21:11,820 --> 00:21:15,660
+تشوفين سبعين
+
+263
+00:21:15,660 --> 00:21:18,600
+ألف ال liabilities اللي هو سبعين ضرب ال .. okay
+
+264
+00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:23,540
+اللي هو سبعين ضرب الألف فبصفر عنده ثمانين ألف اللي
+
+265
+00:21:23,540 --> 00:21:28,820
+حسبناها ال equity من وين أجت ثلاثين ألف plus fifty
+
+266
+00:21:28,820 --> 00:21:30,320
+percent طيب
+
+267
+00:21:36,620 --> 00:21:40,320
+طبعا هاي 80 ألف ناقص ال 50 ألف طلع عنده 30 ألف و
+
+268
+00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:47,000
+نعرف كيف تعمل وحسبناها لكم كيف اجت okay
+
+269
+00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:52,800
+هلق ال .. the big question if the prices goes up
+
+270
+00:21:52,800 --> 00:22:00,740
+إذا كان الأسعار راحت إلى أعلى so in this case the
+
+271
+00:22:00,740 --> 00:22:04,320
+investor is starting to lose his or her money ال
+
+272
+00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:09,510
+investors بيبدأ يخسر الفلوس تبعته our question does
+
+273
+00:22:09,510 --> 00:22:15,070
+the broker leave him alone؟ هل هيتركه لو واحد
+
+274
+00:22:15,070 --> 00:22:20,330
+يشتغل؟ no he has to stop him at some places يعني
+
+275
+00:22:20,330 --> 00:22:25,070
+عند حد معين هيوقفه because he doesn't want him to
+
+276
+00:22:25,070 --> 00:22:30,170
+lose his money and if he lost his money the lose
+
+277
+00:22:30,170 --> 00:22:35,040
+will leak to the broker accounts كمان إذا ضاعوا
+
+278
+00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:40,420
+خسر فلوسه الخسائر حتتسرب لل .. لل broker وهذا
+
+279
+00:22:40,420 --> 00:22:45,140
+بنات احنا بنحكيلكم الكلام هذا عشان كمان انتم يعني
+
+280
+00:22:45,140 --> 00:22:49,240
+أكيد بكرا حتشتغلوا في مؤسسات وفي كذا ويعني 
+
+281
+00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:55,120
+تكونوا إن شاء الله يعني من السيدات أعمال إن شاء
+
+282
+00:22:55,120 --> 00:22:58,660
+الله هذا في ethics علمنا هذا الطريقة فيها ethics
+
+283
+00:22:58,660 --> 00:23:02,340
+ايش معنى ethics فيها أخلاق يعني لما تشوفوا واحد
+
+284
+00:23:02,340 --> 00:23:07,620
+تاجر بيتاجر غلط وواحد بيخسر فلوسه ما احنا نستغلهم
+
+285
+00:23:07,620 --> 00:23:13,080
+at some place we have to stop him لازم نوقفه و
+
+286
+00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:17,300
+نقوله please روح اتعلم كيف تشتغل بعدين بتيجي لإن
+
+287
+00:23:17,300 --> 00:23:21,180
+في بعض التجار هيروح يستغله وياخد فلوسه كلها okay و
+
+288
+00:23:21,180 --> 00:23:25,600
+ينصب عليه بالعربي ويستغل عدم فهمه بالميكانزم تبع
+
+289
+00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:30,810
+السوق وهذا بندخل في ال .. في عدم الأخلاق .. عدم
+
+290
+00:23:30,810 --> 00:23:34,310
+أخلاقية المهنة فهون بال .. بال .. بال financial
+
+291
+00:23:34,310 --> 00:23:38,670
+market at some place they have to stop him and to
+
+292
+00:23:38,670 --> 00:23:42,570
+ask him to leave the markets أو حابب يتضارب في
+
+293
+00:23:42,570 --> 00:23:47,150
+السوق okay bring cash يعني bring cash it's like to
+
+294
+00:23:47,150 --> 00:23:50,050
+pressurize on him to leave the markets يعني كأنه
+
+295
+00:23:50,050 --> 00:23:52,070
+بطريقة أخرى بيقوله امشي
+
+296
+00:23:54,470 --> 00:24:00,030
+Okay so our question at what price they ask for
+
+297
+00:24:00,030 --> 00:24:03,690
+maintenance margin فهنحسبها المعادلة اللي اخذناها
+
+298
+00:24:03,690 --> 00:24:10,190
+بتاعت زمان اللي هو زي ما انتم شايفين فاكرين ال
+
+299
+00:24:10,190 --> 00:24:16,650
+150 ألف من وين اجت؟ اجت من ال .. ال .. اللي هو
+
+300
+00:24:16,650 --> 00:24:23,920
+number of shares ضرب ل price اللي هو ضرب ال price
+
+301
+00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,180
+المعادلة اللي اعطانا اياها هي زائد ال collateral ال
+
+302
+00:24:27,180 --> 00:24:31,720
+collateral خمسين ألف فهي مية plus خمسين اللي هو
+
+303
+00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:39,120
+مية وخمسين ألف okay minus الف P okay ال الف P
+
+304
+00:24:39,120 --> 00:24:42,260
+اللي هو number of shares ضرب ال price اللي احنا مش
+
+305
+00:24:42,260 --> 00:24:46,480
+عارفينه اللي احنا هنوجده تقسيم ال الف P بتساوي
+
+306
+00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:53,490
+thirty percent لو احنا حسبناها هنحسبها مع بعض 150000
+
+307
+00:24:53,490 --> 00:25:06,230
+-1000P تقسيم 1000P بتساوي 30% صح؟ ال 1000P بتيجي
+
+308
+00:25:06,230 --> 00:25:18,530
+مع ال 30% بتصير ايش؟ 300P بتساوي 150000-1000P
+
+309
+00:25:20,270 --> 00:25:28,050
+الألف بتيجي هان بتصير ال 700P بتساوي 150 ألف من
+
+310
+00:25:28,050 --> 00:25:36,210
+نحكي ال 150 ألف 150 ألف تقسيم 700 بتساوي ال P من
+
+311
+00:25:36,210 --> 00:25:43,330
+هن بنعرف ال P قسم ال 150 ألف على 700 كم؟ لأ في ايش
+
+312
+00:25:43,330 --> 00:25:45,350
+غلط يكون 115
+
+313
+00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:55,220
+احنا هان كام؟ ألف ألف
+
+314
+00:25:55,220 --> 00:26:01,640
+بي بتساوي 30% 30% بتضربها في الألف ثلاثين في المية
+
+315
+00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:08,580
+ضرب الألف ثلاثمية بي okay ثلاثمية بي بتساوي مية و
+
+316
+00:26:08,580 --> 00:26:14,220
+خمسين ألف ناقص الألف بي فالألف بي بتيجي هان بتصير
+
+317
+00:26:14,220 --> 00:26:20,730
+ألف وثلاثمية بي بتساوي مية وخمسين ألف صح؟ فالمية و
+
+318
+00:26:20,730 --> 00:26:27,370
+خمسين ألف على الف وثلاث مية okay جاوبوا شوفوا هيش
+
+319
+00:26:27,370 --> 00:26:36,410
+ال .. تطلع مية وخمسة عشر okay ده
+
+320
+00:26:36,410 --> 00:26:39,450
+بس نجلة الإشارة بتاع اللغة okay
+
+321
+00:26:45,250 --> 00:26:50,230
+فبتطلع 150 ألف على 1300 بتطلع 115 طيب ايش هي ال
+
+322
+00:26:50,230 --> 00:26:56,230
+115 لو احنا لسمناها على بسم البياني هان ال 115
+
+323
+00:26:56,230 --> 00:27:02,530
+اللي above هان لازم يكون عنده ال initial margin
+
+324
+00:27:02,530 --> 00:27:10,750
+بيكون كام خسر 115 بيكون 15 خسر 15 دولار ضرب ال
+
+325
+00:27:10,750 --> 00:27:19,130
+1000 15000 عشان كمل احنا اه طيب طب كام بيبقى في ال
+
+326
+00:27:19,130 --> 00:27:25,430
+equity تبعته كام برصيد ال investor 50000 بيكون
+
+327
+00:27:25,430 --> 00:27:34,170
+عنده 50000 ناقص ال 15000 بيطلع 35000 طب كام نسبة
+
+328
+00:27:34,170 --> 00:27:40,070
+الخسارة نسبة الخسارة كام اللي هو فاكرين لما كنا
+
+329
+00:27:40,070 --> 00:27:48,380
+نعود B1 minus P note على P note صح اه yes okay فهو
+
+330
+00:27:48,380 --> 00:27:52,540
+كان عنده خمسين الف بدأ بالخمسين الف خمسين الف
+
+331
+00:27:52,540 --> 00:28:00,620
+وخسرها اللي هو الخمسة عشر الف okay فنسبة الخسارة
+
+332
+00:28:00,620 --> 00:28:04,780
+اللي هي عندها خمسة عشر الف من ناقص على الخمسين الف
+
+333
+00:28:04,780 --> 00:28:11,100
+okay بطلع خسر كام من ثرواته حوالي اكتر من ثلاثين
+
+334
+00:28:11,100 --> 00:28:16,130
+في المية مصبوط؟ يعني لإن خمسة عشر واحد خمسة واربعين
+
+335
+00:28:16,130 --> 00:28:20,470
+يعني حوالي اكتر من ثلاثين في المية خسر من الثروة تبعته
+
+336
+00:28:20,470 --> 00:28:25,870
+ثلاثين في المية بالظبط يعني خسر من الثروة تبعته
+
+337
+00:28:25,870 --> 00:28:33,570
+للاينفستور ثلاثين في المية تمام؟
+
+338
+00:28:33,570 --> 00:28:36,850
+اي
+
+339
+00:28:36,850 --> 00:28:37,410
+سؤال؟
+
+340
+00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:56,900
+حسين تصفر علينا حد
+
+341
+00:28:56,900 --> 00:28:58,820
+عنده سؤال .. حد عنده سؤال هان 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/8zptgmDPa7g_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/8zptgmDPa7g_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5f6a9953f2723f13a1850c2ebcdc0f7826f3597c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/8zptgmDPa7g_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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فنزل السعر لستين دولار فكدهاش بده يدفع عشان يشتري الأسهم ستين دولار فبطلع من جيبته ستين دولار", "tokens": [675, 486, 3624, 498, 264, 7901, 352, 760, 652, 257, 7475, 32239, 8592, 22807, 5296, 33456, 31439, 23758, 4724, 45761, 16095, 6156, 3215, 9778, 1211, 8978, 2423, 8963, 8608, 3555, 27884, 6156, 1211, 41779, 3714, 9381, 9640, 1829, 27188, 11778, 12610, 9640, 8032, 1211, 10721, 5296, 15042, 7251, 1863, 11622, 1211, 21136, 3615, 2288, 47525, 2407, 7251, 8592, 2655, 16572, 3224, 6225, 8592, 7649, 7251, 47341, 3615, 2423, 12966, 6156, 1863, 11622, 1211, 21136, 3615, 2288, 5296, 14851, 9957, 11778, 12610, 9640, 6156, 4117, 3215, 3224, 33599, 47525, 3224, 7251, 3215, 5172, 3615, 6225, 8592, 7649, 7251, 8592, 2655, 16572, 16247, 3794, 16095, 8608, 2655, 9957, 11778, 12610, 9640, 6156, 3555, 9566, 1211, 3615, 9154, 10874, 1829, 3555, 47395, 8608, 2655, 9957, 11778, 12610, 9640], "avg_logprob": -0.17212301729217408, "compression_ratio": 1.751054852320675, "no_speech_prob": 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diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/B-QGYVkzr-s_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/B-QGYVkzr-s_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..81d3249fb6ad689ff9a66deba35f75dd195355e0
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@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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بيعتقدوا ال market ليس كافر لكن ال .. ال .. ال managers المدرة .. المدرة اللي هم ما بيغيروا بال portfolios تبعتهم و passive بيكونوا سلبيين لتغيرات السوق بيعتقدوا ان ال market is .. is efficient and we don't need to rebalance our portfolios or to follow up the .. the information وما بيزامش كتير ان احنا ن .. نتابع المعلومات", "tokens": [6027, 20292, 4724, 1829, 25957, 1211, 14407, 11778, 47302, 15042, 6055, 17082, 1829, 13546, 8978, 2423, 11688, 2717, 6055, 3555, 34268, 16095, 4724, 1829, 34268, 28543, 14407, 2423, 2142, 32239, 3794, 9122, 31845, 2288, 44381, 2423, 4386, 2423, 4386, 2423, 14084, 9673, 3215, 25720, 4386, 9673, 3215, 25720, 13672, 1829, 8032, 2304, 19446, 4724, 1829, 17082, 13546, 14407, 20666, 11688, 2717, 6055, 3555, 34268, 16095, 4032, 14975, 4724, 1829, 30544, 14407, 8608, 46152, 1829, 9957, 5296, 2655, 17082, 13546, 9307, 21136, 30543, 4724, 1829, 34268, 28543, 14407, 16472, 2423, 2142, 307, 4386, 307, 7148, 293, 321, 500, 380, 643, 281, 319, 29215, 527, 11688, 2717, 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"end": 726.52, "text": "ال treasury bills، مظبوط، فيه lower risk، إيش فيه كمان؟ ال bonds، فيها lower risk، إيش كمان؟ عقد ثابت، إيش رأيكم؟ ال derivatives، نحطولهم في ال derivatives؟ نستثمرهم في ال derivatives؟ no, لأن ال derivatives ..", "tokens": [6027, 47213, 12433, 12399, 3714, 19913, 3555, 2407, 9566, 12399, 8978, 3224, 3126, 3148, 12399, 11933, 1829, 8592, 8978, 3224, 9122, 2304, 7649, 22807, 2423, 14713, 12399, 8978, 11296, 3126, 3148, 12399, 11933, 1829, 8592, 9122, 2304, 7649, 22807, 6225, 4587, 3215, 38637, 16758, 2655, 12399, 11933, 1829, 8592, 12602, 10721, 1829, 24793, 22807, 2423, 33733, 12399, 8717, 5016, 9566, 12610, 16095, 8978, 2423, 33733, 22807, 8717, 14851, 12984, 29973, 16095, 8978, 2423, 33733, 22807, 572, 11, 5296, 33456, 2423, 33733, 4386], "avg_logprob": -0.22816265383398676, "compression_ratio": 1.7647058823529411, "no_speech_prob": 3.5762786865234375e-07, "words": [{"start": 712.38, "end": 712.6, "word": "ال", "probability": 0.9140625}, {"start": 712.6, "end": 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بالعقارات so this is the thing so we forming up this portfolio by using for instance treasury bills which is risk free maybe treasury bonds and real estate this is the example okay let's consider the I4 and I5 I5 young man and young lady with a secure job", "tokens": [21454, 3148, 23032, 1829, 3555, 4032, 8592, 9122, 2304, 7649, 3714, 43020, 8717, 3615, 9566, 1829, 16095, 957, 9749, 6225, 4587, 9640, 9307, 44713, 12984, 29973, 14407, 20666, 3615, 4587, 9640, 9307, 370, 341, 307, 264, 551, 370, 321, 15745, 493, 341, 12583, 538, 1228, 337, 5197, 47213, 12433, 597, 307, 3148, 1737, 1310, 47213, 14713, 293, 957, 9749, 341, 307, 264, 1365, 1392, 718, 311, 1949, 264, 286, 19, 293, 286, 20, 286, 20, 2037, 587, 293, 2037, 7262, 365, 257, 7144, 1691], "avg_logprob": -0.15248161764705884, "compression_ratio": 1.502092050209205, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 727.36, "end": 727.88, "word": "high", "probability": 0.59619140625}, {"start": 727.88, "end": 728.6, 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0.86962890625}, {"start": 752.2, "end": 752.66, "word": " young", "probability": 0.8779296875}, {"start": 752.66, "end": 753.16, "word": " man", "probability": 0.72900390625}, {"start": 753.16, "end": 753.6, "word": " and", "probability": 0.95361328125}, {"start": 753.6, "end": 753.82, "word": " young", "probability": 0.89013671875}, {"start": 753.82, "end": 754.16, "word": " lady", "probability": 0.89208984375}, {"start": 754.16, "end": 755.04, "word": " with", "probability": 0.92138671875}, {"start": 755.04, "end": 755.16, "word": " a", "probability": 0.78271484375}, {"start": 755.16, "end": 755.42, "word": " secure", "probability": 0.94873046875}, {"start": 755.42, "end": 755.72, "word": " job", "probability": 0.978515625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 33, "seek": 78366, "start": 756.62, "end": 783.66, "text": "صغار و عندهم شغلهم okay so they can bear more risk so they can bear more risk يعني ممكن يتحملوا or they hold they may hold more risk فممكن يتحملوا مخاطر أعلى so وين ممكن 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"end": 813.32, "text": "إذن حسب the characteristics of the investors so we can forming up the appropriate portfolio with appropriate risk يعني ممكن إحنا ننشأ محافظة استثمارية حسب ال investors اللي سبعونا وحسب المخاطر اللي هم ممكن يتحملوها okay so this is the appropriate risk level the last one is tax considerations", "tokens": [28814, 8848, 1863, 11331, 35457, 264, 10891, 295, 264, 11519, 370, 321, 393, 15745, 493, 264, 6854, 12583, 365, 6854, 3148, 37495, 22653, 3714, 43020, 11933, 5016, 8315, 8717, 1863, 8592, 10721, 3714, 5016, 31845, 19913, 3660, 44713, 12984, 2304, 9640, 10632, 11331, 35457, 2423, 11519, 13672, 1829, 8608, 3555, 3615, 2407, 8315, 4032, 5016, 35457, 9673, 9778, 41193, 2288, 13672, 1829, 8032, 2304, 3714, 43020, 7251, 2655, 35571, 1211, 2407, 11296, 1392, 370, 341, 307, 264, 6854, 3148, 1496, 264, 1036, 472, 307, 3366, 24070], "avg_logprob": -0.16065014847393694, "compression_ratio": 1.5805084745762712, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 785.58, "end": 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"probability": 0.87890625}, {"start": 793.76, "end": 794.24, "word": " appropriate", "probability": 0.83203125}, {"start": 794.24, "end": 794.82, "word": " portfolio", "probability": 0.94287109375}, {"start": 794.82, "end": 795.28, "word": " with", "probability": 0.93212890625}, {"start": 795.28, "end": 795.8, "word": " appropriate", "probability": 0.810546875}, {"start": 795.8, "end": 796.2, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.86572265625}, {"start": 796.2, "end": 797.42, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.862060546875}, {"start": 797.42, "end": 797.66, "word": " ممكن", "probability": 0.99462890625}, {"start": 797.66, "end": 798.04, "word": " إحنا", "probability": 0.78662109375}, {"start": 798.04, "end": 799.6, "word": " ننشأ", "probability": 0.83563232421875}, {"start": 799.6, "end": 800.1, "word": " محافظة", "probability": 0.9806640625}, {"start": 800.1, "end": 800.6, "word": " استثمارية", "probability": 0.98427734375}, {"start": 800.6, "end": 801.04, "word": " حسب", "probability": 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83923, "start": 814.61, "end": 839.23, "text": "tax tax consideration okay let's focus on the importance of tax considerations خلّيني أركز على ال tax considerations يعني الاعتبارات الضريبية طيب خلّيني أخد مثال احنا عندنا stock A", "tokens": [1328, 87, 3366, 12381, 1392, 718, 311, 1879, 322, 264, 7379, 295, 3366, 24070, 16490, 1211, 11703, 9957, 1829, 5551, 31747, 11622, 15844, 2423, 3366, 24070, 37495, 22653, 42963, 34268, 3555, 9640, 9307, 6024, 114, 16572, 3555, 10632, 23032, 1829, 3555, 16490, 1211, 11703, 9957, 1829, 5551, 9778, 3215, 50113, 6027, 1975, 5016, 8315, 43242, 8315, 4127, 316], "avg_logprob": -0.21371822741072058, "compression_ratio": 1.4846625766871167, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 814.61, "end": 815.03, "word": "tax", "probability": 0.56903076171875}, {"start": 815.03, "end": 815.43, "word": " tax", "probability": 0.44287109375}, {"start": 815.43, "end": 815.93, "word": " consideration", "probability": 0.60693359375}, {"start": 815.93, "end": 816.51, 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0.62158203125}, {"start": 920.36, "end": 920.54, "word": " no", "probability": 0.94140625}, {"start": 920.54, "end": 920.98, "word": " tax", "probability": 0.96533203125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 39, "seek": 95224, "start": 923.12, "end": 952.24, "text": "طيب what is the alternative of not paying the dividends؟ شو البديل أنه احنا ماددفعش نوزعش أرباح؟ فضل ازاي صح كلامك بس ازاي انا احكي لك لما احنا ماددفعش الأرباح انا محتجزة بيصير في 110 earnings أرباح محتجزة اه بتكون قصود احنا الأصل هو عبارة عن قيمة الفرق من القصود او قيمته", "tokens": [9566, 1829, 3555, 437, 307, 264, 8535, 295, 406, 6229, 264, 39675, 22807, 13412, 2407, 29739, 16254, 1211, 14739, 3224, 1975, 5016, 8315, 3714, 18513, 3215, 5172, 3615, 8592, 8717, 2407, 11622, 3615, 8592, 5551, 25513, 39319, 22807, 6156, 11242, 1211, 1975, 11622, 47302, 20328, 5016, 28242, 10943, 4117, 4724, 3794, 1975, 11622, 47302, 1975, 8315, 1975, 5016, 4117, 1829, 5296, 4117, 5296, 15042, 1975, 5016, 8315, 3714, 18513, 3215, 5172, 3615, 8592, 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"compression_ratio": 0.68, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 954.25, "end": 955.65, "word": "بصير", "probability": 0.5760498046875}, {"start": 955.65, "end": 956.05, "word": " ايش؟", "probability": 0.7943115234375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 41, "seek": 98301, "start": 957.05, "end": 983.01, "text": "بتزيد المكية بتزيد حصته بس هذا from the financial perspective this is from the corporate finance perspective هذا من غير نظر corporate finance but from the financial market perspective you are right but from the financial market perspective let's see what is going خلينا نشوف ال A بتدفع dividends فهم بدفعوا taxation فال investors اللي بتثمروا في A و اللي بتدفع dividends", "tokens": [3555, 2655, 11622, 25708, 9673, 4117, 10632, 39894, 11622, 25708, 11331, 9381, 47395, 4724, 3794, 23758, 490, 264, 4669, 4585, 341, 307, 490, 264, 10896, 10719, 4585, 23758, 9154, 32771, 13546, 8717, 19913, 2288, 10896, 10719, 457, 490, 264, 4669, 2142, 4585, 291, 366, 558, 457, 490, 264, 4669, 2142, 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"word": " any", "probability": 0.88330078125}, {"start": 989.83, "end": 990.39, "word": " dividends", "probability": 0.88720703125}, {"start": 990.39, "end": 990.69, "word": " إذا", "probability": 0.745361328125}, {"start": 990.69, "end": 990.85, "word": " هم", "probability": 0.9462890625}, {"start": 990.85, "end": 991.31, "word": " قرروا", "probability": 0.9871826171875}, {"start": 991.31, "end": 991.71, "word": " مايدفعوش", "probability": 0.9022623697916666}, {"start": 991.71, "end": 992.09, "word": " dividends", "probability": 0.9150390625}, {"start": 992.09, "end": 992.81, "word": " خلينا", "probability": 0.77166748046875}, {"start": 992.81, "end": 993.17, "word": " نشوف", "probability": 0.99560546875}, {"start": 993.17, "end": 993.83, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.75439453125}, {"start": 993.83, "end": 994.09, "word": " أنتوا", "probability": 0.7508138020833334}, {"start": 994.09, "end": 994.41, "word": " شفتوا", "probability": 0.8759765625}, {"start": 994.41, "end": 994.55, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.98876953125}, {"start": 994.55, "end": 995.33, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.70849609375}, {"start": 995.33, "end": 995.83, "word": " و", "probability": 0.66796875}, {"start": 995.83, "end": 995.87, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.6689453125}, {"start": 995.87, "end": 996.37, "word": " liabilities", "probability": 0.8662109375}, {"start": 996.37, "end": 997.59, "word": " مظبوط؟", "probability": 0.87158203125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 43, "seek": 102593, "start": 997.85, "end": 1025.93, "text": "فلما أنا ب .. بعمل no dividends فبعمل احتجاز للأرباح فبتروحها تحت ال capital as she said تحت ال capital بيصير في return earnings طيب let's ask you a question return earnings what is the importance of return earnings خلينا سؤال finance إيش أهمية ال return earnings ليش .. ليش الشركات بتعمل investment is for expansion", "tokens": [5172, 1211, 15042, 41850, 4724, 4386, 4724, 25957, 1211, 572, 39675, 6156, 3555, 25957, 1211, 1975, 33753, 7435, 31377, 24976, 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implications of .. if markets were inefficient إذا كان الأسواق ليست كفؤة resources would be systematically misallocated هنروح نعمل misallocation لل .. نروح .. نروح نستثمر في أشياء غالية هي المفروض تكون رخيصة و أشياء رخيصة المفروض تكون غالية so this is the things misallocation or misleading as .. as I explained fame with overvalued securities can raise capital too cheaply", "tokens": [5172, 264, 16602, 295, 4386, 498, 8383, 645, 43495, 11933, 15730, 25961, 16247, 3794, 14407, 4587, 32239, 14851, 9122, 5172, 33604, 3660, 3593, 576, 312, 39531, 3346, 336, 905, 770, 8032, 1863, 32887, 5016, 8717, 25957, 1211, 3346, 336, 27943, 24976, 4386, 8717, 32887, 5016, 4386, 8717, 32887, 5016, 8717, 14851, 12984, 29973, 8978, 5551, 8592, 1829, 16606, 32771, 6027, 10632, 39896, 9673, 5172, 32887, 11242, 6055, 30544, 12602, 9778, 1829, 9381, 3660, 4032, 5551, 8592, 1829, 16606, 12602, 9778, 1829, 9381, 3660, 9673, 5172, 32887, 11242, 6055, 30544, 32771, 6027, 10632, 370, 341, 307, 264, 721, 3346, 336, 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0836bae324d7e6e271bf0644202b0a356d688c93
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1071 @@
+1
+00:00:21,010 --> 00:00:24,010
+الـ .. المرة الفاتة كنا نحكي عن موضوع الـ .. ال bond
+
+2
+00:00:24,010 --> 00:00:28,270
+markets okay و الـ .. و ال stock markets وحكينا we
+
+3
+00:00:28,270 --> 00:00:31,130
+classify the bond market into two different
+
+4
+00:00:31,130 --> 00:00:34,450
+markets the governmental market and the corporate
+
+5
+00:00:34,450 --> 00:00:38,950
+bond .. the corporate bonds and the governmental
+
+6
+00:00:38,950 --> 00:00:42,570
+bonds are issued by the governments and the
+
+7
+00:00:42,570 --> 00:00:45,890
+corporate bonds are issued by the companies and
+
+8
+00:00:45,890 --> 00:00:48,390
+they had .. we have different classifications of
+
+9
+00:00:48,390 --> 00:00:51,250
+these bonds يعني إحنا في عندنا تصنيفات أخرى لل
+
+10
+00:00:51,250 --> 00:00:55,390
+bonds سواء كانت السندات الحكومية أو سندات الشركات
+
+11
+00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,560
+الـ .. الهدف الأساسي اليوم the .. the main
+
+12
+00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,120
+objective of the meeting today is to show you how
+
+13
+00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,980
+the pricing system in the bonds كيف طرق التسعير في
+
+14
+00:01:06,980 --> 00:01:10,920
+الـ bonds Okay and if we have time, we will go in
+
+15
+00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:14,420
+details about the bonds classifications وإذا كان
+
+16
+00:01:14,420 --> 00:01:17,120
+الوقت موجود، هنحكي عن الـ bonds classifications و
+
+17
+00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:28,260
+تصنيفات الـ bonds It is important to access www.wsj
+
+18
+00:01:28,260 --> 00:01:34,020
+.com this website is for Wall Street Journal this
+
+19
+00:01:34,020 --> 00:01:39,700
+is a very important website in 1970s, 80s you have
+
+20
+00:01:39,700 --> 00:01:43,840
+to pay money in order to access this website يعني
+
+21
+00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:47,040
+بالسبعينات، الثمانينات، حتى التسعينات لازم تدفعوا فلوس
+
+22
+00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,540
+عشان تدخلوا على هذا الـ website اليوم هذا الـ
+
+23
+00:01:50,540 --> 00:01:54,260
+website free so you can access this website easily
+
+24
+00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:58,040
+أهمية هذا الـ website أنه بعرض الـ pricing .. الـ
+
+25
+00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,520
+pricing information about the bond market, about
+
+26
+00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,760
+the stock market, about every financial ..
+
+27
+00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,920
+financial markets in the United States يعني بيعرض
+
+28
+00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,460
+كل المعلومات اللي بتعلقة في أسواق الولايات
+
+29
+00:02:09,460 --> 00:02:12,980
+المتحدة الأمريكية طبعًا هذا أكثر واحد مشهور و أكبر
+
+30
+00:02:12,980 --> 00:02:19,000
+موقع بيعمل generation للـ financial data يعني
+
+31
+00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:24,060
+بيعطينا معلومات مالية فعشان تشوفوا الـ prices just go
+
+32
+00:02:24,060 --> 00:02:27,800
+to the bond prices and you can see the ..
+
+33
+00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,460
+unfortunately the internet is not going well عشان
+
+34
+00:02:31,460 --> 00:02:35,520
+هيك مش هنقدر نورجيكم الكلام هذا إن شاء الله when
+
+35
+00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,600
+you go home so you just login the Wall Street
+
+36
+00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:42,800
+Journal it's like this لوح على الـ Wall Street
+
+37
+00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:47,200
+Journal هاي اللي بتروح على market data go to the
+
+38
+00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:51,060
+market data center and go to the you have many
+
+39
+00:02:51,060 --> 00:02:55,880
+options for instance US stocks, mutual markets,
+
+40
+00:02:56,220 --> 00:03:01,280
+mutual funds and bond rates and credit markets
+
+41
+00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,460
+فبتروح على bond rates و credit markets بتشوفوا كل
+
+42
+00:03:04,460 --> 00:03:09,080
+البيانات متعلقة في أسواق السندات okay
+
+43
+00:03:13,550 --> 00:03:22,770
+زي ما أنتو شايفين إنها بالـ ..
+
+44
+00:03:22,770 --> 00:03:27,490
+okay طبعًا الكتاب أخذ هذه المعلومات من الـ Wall
+
+45
+00:03:27,490 --> 00:03:30,770
+Street Journal المعلومات هذه أصلًا أخذها من الـ Wall
+
+46
+00:03:30,770 --> 00:03:35,230
+Street Journal لـ for some US government bonds and
+
+47
+00:03:35,230 --> 00:03:41,680
+notes لبعض السندات الحكومية و الـ notes بتاعة الـ ..
+
+48
+00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,860
+طب what it means government bonds سندات حكومية بق
+
+49
+00:03:44,860 --> 00:03:48,100
+what it means government notes هاي is .. is
+
+50
+00:03:48,100 --> 00:03:50,620
+terminology related to the .. to the governments
+
+51
+00:03:50,620 --> 00:03:55,000
+هذه عبارة عن مصطلحات الحكومة أو جوداتها بق الـ ..
+
+52
+00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,380
+the main difference between the government bonds
+
+53
+00:03:58,380 --> 00:04:03,220
+and the government notes is the span is the life
+
+54
+00:04:03,220 --> 00:04:07,780
+span life span الفرق هو الـ life span اللي هي المدة
+
+55
+00:04:07,780 --> 00:04:17,180
+so the government bonds is span over 30 years you
+
+56
+00:04:17,180 --> 00:04:24,540
+see the government bonds are
+
+57
+00:04:24,540 --> 00:04:30,560
+greater than 10 years however the government notes
+
+58
+00:04:33,230 --> 00:04:40,830
+is less than or equal ten years or less than or
+
+59
+00:04:40,830 --> 00:04:44,410
+equal ten years less than or equal ten years يعني
+
+60
+00:04:44,410 --> 00:04:48,650
+السندات الحكومية الـ bonds هي أكثر من عشر سنوات
+
+61
+00:04:48,650 --> 00:04:52,330
+تمتد حتى ثلاثين سنة حتى أنا شوفت على الـ website
+
+62
+00:04:52,330 --> 00:04:55,430
+لعند الـ 2042 إذا بتفتحوا الـ
+
+63
+00:04:55,430 --> 00:04:58,130
+website هتشوفوا سندات لسنة الـ 2042
+
+64
+00:04:58,130 --> 00:05:03,490
+يعني كم سنة من 2013 لـ 2042 يعني حوالي around
+
+65
+00:05:03,490 --> 00:05:07,630
+ثلاثين سنة و أقل شوي okay فممكن في الـ website
+
+66
+00:05:07,630 --> 00:05:11,390
+هتشوفوا إن في سندات up to the twenty years, twenty
+
+67
+00:05:11,390 --> 00:05:15,110
+-five years and thirty years الـ government notes
+
+68
+00:05:15,110 --> 00:05:20,030
+هي نوع من أنواع السندات الحكومية لكن هي بتصدر بأقل
+
+69
+00:05:20,030 --> 00:05:27,110
+أو تساوي عشر سنوات okay هذا listing لهذه السندات
+
+70
+00:05:28,300 --> 00:05:31,600
+هذا هو example of the of the treasury of the
+
+71
+00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:35,220
+government bonds and notes نتطلع إحنا how they
+
+72
+00:05:35,220 --> 00:05:38,460
+price this the first column is maturity date
+
+73
+00:05:38,460 --> 00:05:43,640
+maturity date اللي هو تاريخ الاستحقاق the second
+
+74
+00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:48,480
+column is the coupon rate اللي هو الفائدة this
+
+75
+00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:52,360
+coupon rate is paid annually or semiannually تدفع
+
+76
+00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:57,180
+سنويًا or يعني لو إحنا خدنا الـ 5.125 اللي هي هذه
+
+77
+00:05:58,050 --> 00:06:03,570
+Okay it may paid annually ممكن ندفعها annually
+
+78
+00:06:03,570 --> 00:06:07,530
+يعني سنويًا or semi annually if it is semi annually
+
+79
+00:06:07,530 --> 00:06:12,350
+you have to divide it by two لازم نقسمها by two
+
+80
+00:06:12,350 --> 00:06:17,180
+why it is called coupon rate ليش سميناها coupon rate
+
+81
+00:06:17,180 --> 00:06:23,800
+لأن قبل التكنولوجيا يعني قبل 2009 كانوا يعطوا الـ
+
+82
+00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:30,240
+investors الـ bond holder يعطوهم bonds
+
+83
+00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:36,720
+يعطوهم سند بهذا الشكل and divided into into
+
+84
+00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:41,400
+coupons و مقسم إلى couponات فاكرين الـ couponات
+
+85
+00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:48,540
+العادية هذه فكل coupon عليه اللي هو الـ cash الـ cash
+
+86
+00:06:48,540 --> 00:06:53,190
+value for instance لو إحنا أجينا أخدنا مثال خمسة
+
+87
+00:06:53,190 --> 00:06:57,350
+فاصلة واحد اتنين خمسة five point one two five قولوا
+
+88
+00:06:57,350 --> 00:07:01,770
+coupon if it is paid semiannually it means every
+
+89
+00:07:01,770 --> 00:07:06,930
+six months so we time it by one thousand one
+
+90
+00:07:06,930 --> 00:07:10,450
+thousand is the par value عشان نعرف كده إحنا كل ست
+
+91
+00:07:10,450 --> 00:07:13,910
+شهور لازم ناخد من السند بيقول الـ par value ضرب
+
+92
+00:07:13,910 --> 00:07:17,390
+اللي هو الـ coupon كم بتطلع سيبقوا عندكم على الآلة
+
+93
+00:07:17,390 --> 00:07:20,480
+الحاسبة بشوفوا كم بتطلعوا أنا بحسبها عندي كمان على الـ
+
+94
+00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:26,360
+Excel عشان نشوف okay هلا نشوف الـ par value ألف
+
+95
+00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:32,200
+دولار هي ألف دولار okay اه
+
+96
+00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:36,620
+be careful as I said in the previous meeting the
+
+97
+00:07:36,620 --> 00:07:39,500
+treasury bills are issued by par value ten
+
+98
+00:07:39,500 --> 00:07:46,240
+thousands bonds is issued by one thousand Okay, so
+
+99
+00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:51,960
+be careful on this. So the par value is
+
+100
+00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:59,940
+1000 مكبر الخط The
+
+101
+00:07:59,940 --> 00:08:04,620
+coupon, coupon is called by C, we can use C, the
+
+102
+00:08:04,620 --> 00:08:10,500
+coupon is 5.125
+
+103
+00:08:10,500 --> 00:08:12,740
+and don't forget this is as a percentage
+
+104
+00:08:15,450 --> 00:08:21,450
+sorry yes this is the coupon is paid semiannually
+
+105
+00:08:21,450 --> 00:08:26,510
+الـ coupon paid semiannually يعني لازم نكسبه على
+
+106
+00:08:26,510 --> 00:08:30,850
+إيش لازم
+
+107
+00:08:30,850 --> 00:08:34,890
+نكسبه على اتنين لأنه semiannual ايه semiannual
+
+108
+00:08:34,890 --> 00:08:41,130
+يعني نفس غنوية يعني هذه الفائدة هي annual this
+
+109
+00:08:41,130 --> 00:08:45,710
+is standard هذا الـ standard في السوق المالي خلاص
+
+110
+00:08:45,710 --> 00:08:49,110
+يعني عارفين الـ investors they suggested the prices
+
+111
+00:08:49,110 --> 00:08:53,730
+and suggested coupon rates are annual يعني عارفين
+
+112
+00:08:53,730 --> 00:08:57,930
+الـ investors هذي annual فعشان نحسب الـ semi-annual
+
+113
+00:08:57,930 --> 00:09:01,510
+you have to divide it by two الـ semi-annual لـ 6
+
+114
+00:09:01,510 --> 00:09:04,690
+شهور يعني إذا بالسنة بناخد المبلغ هذا طب بالـ 6
+
+115
+00:09:04,690 --> 00:09:09,590
+شهور قداش نقسم على 2 okay فإحنا لو روحنا نقسم
+
+116
+00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:20,920
+بتقسيم اتنين okay بيطلع اللي هو 0.025 عشان نعرف
+
+117
+00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:27,600
+كده هيطلع علينا كل ست شهور اللي هو الـ cash cash
+
+118
+00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:32,580
+هيطلع يساوي اللي هو الألف بنضربها في الـ rates
+
+119
+00:09:32,580 --> 00:09:38,680
+فبيطلع عندنا كل ست شهور بناخد خمسة و عشرين دولار
+
+120
+00:09:38,680 --> 00:09:41,900
+فاصلة 625 فبيجي
+
+121
+00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:52,840
+نعيدها آخر مرة الـ par value ألف دولار الـ coupon
+
+122
+00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:59,920
+كم؟ five point one two five don't forget this is
+
+123
+00:09:59,920 --> 00:10:04,500
+percentage طيب لما بنيجي semi annual كل ست شهور
+
+124
+00:10:04,500 --> 00:10:09,540
+لازم نقسمها c على two اللي هو five one two five
+
+125
+00:10:09,540 --> 00:10:20,820
+divided by two بيطلع الجواب هنا يعني 2.56 
+
+126
+00:10:20,820 --> 00:10:26,720
+اتنين خمسة في المية okay هلأ هذا الجواب بنضربه في
+
+127
+00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:31,420
+الألف دولار بطلع عندنا خمسة و عشرين دولار وست مية و
+
+128
+00:10:31,420 --> 00:10:35,720
+خمسة و عشرين هلأ كل .. every six months كل ست شهور
+
+129
+00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:40,860
+بيكون في عندي coupon كل ست شهور فبيجي ال investor
+
+130
+00:10:40,860 --> 00:10:47,720
+برفع ال coupon وبيروح للبنك و بيحط قيمته okay من
+
+131
+00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:52,860
+هون اجت كلمة coupon فال coupon بيمسك ال .. يعني ال
+
+132
+00:10:52,860 --> 00:10:57,020
+coupon العادية فبيمسك ال investors ال .. ال ..
+
+133
+00:10:57,020 --> 00:10:59,700
+الورقة اللي بتخص ال ست شهور هذه و بيروح للبنك و
+
+134
+00:10:59,700 --> 00:11:04,210
+بيحصل قيمتها الآن مثلا خلصت هذه الست شهور الجاية برضه
+
+135
+00:11:04,210 --> 00:11:08,210
+بمسكها بعديها وهكذا لما يخلص الكوبون لمدة .. زي
+
+136
+00:11:08,210 --> 00:11:13,810
+الشكل بالظبط هلأ هذا النظام خلص هذا النظام عندي
+
+137
+00:11:13,810 --> 00:11:18,350
+التسعين كان موجود هلأ صار كله electronic كل
+
+138
+00:11:18,350 --> 00:11:21,470
+electronic يتم .. كل ست شهور بيضعف للحساب قيمة
+
+139
+00:11:21,470 --> 00:11:31,920
+الكوبون okay نرجع لل .. على ال 25.625 دربتها اسمها
+
+140
+00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,980
+كيفش بتعملها دربتها في ال 1100 ضرب عليها هي هذي
+
+141
+00:11:35,980 --> 00:11:46,420
+تساوي 1000 مضروبة في 5.125 divided by 2 okay بتطلع
+
+142
+00:11:46,420 --> 00:11:55,960
+هذه القيمة okay okay مش
+
+143
+00:11:55,960 --> 00:12:01,070
+سامع اقرأ الأسئلة في نهاية ال chapter بتعرف كيف 
+
+144
+00:12:01,070 --> 00:12:08,890
+تيجي okay هلأ خلصنا ال .. خلصنا ال coupon خلصنا ال
+
+145
+00:12:08,890 --> 00:12:15,410
+coupon ال coupon rates كمان مرة هو سعر فائدة
+
+146
+00:12:15,410 --> 00:12:19,350
+الكوبوني اللي احنا هناخده على السند اللي هو قيمة
+
+147
+00:12:19,350 --> 00:12:25,130
+ال par value تبع السند ألف دولار okay ال bid و ال
+
+148
+00:12:25,130 --> 00:12:31,260
+ask نيجي نحكي عن ال bid و ال ask ال bid و ال ask
+
+149
+00:12:31,260 --> 00:12:38,640
+خلّيني 
+
+150
+00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,360
+لحظة بس نحكي عن ال bid و ال ask
+
+151
+00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:52,340
+الـ bid و ال ask price ناخذ ال bid 100.09 لاحظوا
+
+152
+00:12:52,340 --> 00:12:57,380
+طريقة التسعير 100 نقطتين فوق بعض مش نقطة محتوطة
+
+153
+00:12:57,380 --> 00:13:04,580
+نقطتين فوق بعض 09 10 ايش
+
+154
+00:13:04,580 --> 00:13:11,820
+معناه what it means this خليني بس لحظة نحكي 100
+
+155
+00:13:11,820 --> 00:13:18,050
+نقطتين فوق بعض 09 100 وتنطق بعد 10 تطلعوا على اللي
+
+156
+00:13:18,050 --> 00:13:22,330
+موجود عندكم موجود نقطة ولا نقطتين okay what it
+
+157
+00:13:22,330 --> 00:13:29,290
+means ايش معناها لأ مش 9% بتعني ان هذا الرقم ال 09
+
+158
+00:13:29,290 --> 00:13:39,020
+and 10 is divided by 32 مقسوم على 32 ليش؟ this is
+
+159
+00:13:39,020 --> 00:13:44,300
+standard in the US markets هذا standard في أسواق
+
+160
+00:13:44,300 --> 00:13:47,060
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية طبعًا لأنه في الولايات
+
+161
+00:13:47,060 --> 00:13:51,640
+المتحدة الأمريكية بيستخدموا نظام التسعير الكسر
+
+162
+00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,500
+العادي بيستخدموا الكسر العادي مش الكسر العشري
+
+163
+00:13:55,500 --> 00:13:59,240
+كانوا في السابق يستخدموا one divided by eight
+
+164
+00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:05,680
+سابقا بعدين استخدموا one divided by sixteen بعدين
+
+165
+00:14:05,680 --> 00:14:12,440
+استخدموا one divided by 32 أول ثمن واحدة ستة عشر
+
+166
+00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,580
+واحدة اثنين وثلاثين فإذا أنتم بتشوفون هذا الرقم
+
+167
+00:14:15,580 --> 00:14:19,900
+هذا الرقم يعني اثنين على اثنين وثلاثين طبعًا ال
+
+168
+00:14:19,900 --> 00:14:22,640
+investors بيقولولهمش الكلام هذا because they
+
+169
+00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:26,320
+already know about this ال investors ما بيحكولهمش
+
+170
+00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,780
+لأن ال investors عارفين الكلام هذا أن اثنين
+
+171
+00:14:28,780 --> 00:14:32,980
+divided by 32 how to convert this into price كيف
+
+172
+00:14:32,980 --> 00:14:39,290
+نحولها لسعر كمان مرة ال bid و ال ask مش مسعرة
+
+173
+00:14:39,290 --> 00:14:43,170
+بطريقة التسعير اللي احنا بنعرفها يعني اما احنا نروح
+
+174
+00:14:43,170 --> 00:14:47,190
+على السوق مثلا نسأل كم سعر الغسالة هيجي يحكينا
+
+175
+00:14:47,190 --> 00:14:51,730
+سعر الغسالة 500 شكل بس في الأسواق المالية ما
+
+176
+00:14:51,730 --> 00:14:54,270
+بيعملوا هاي ال pricing system ما بيعملوش نظام
+
+177
+00:14:54,270 --> 00:14:58,450
+التسعير عندهم نظام تسعير بيختلف تماما عن اللي احنا
+
+178
+00:14:58,450 --> 00:15:03,030
+بنعرفه نظام التسعير الموجود في ال bonds تحديدا ال
+
+179
+00:15:03,030 --> 00:15:06,890
+bonds they use percentage system احفظوها they use
+
+180
+00:15:06,890 --> 00:15:11,010
+percentage system percentage
+
+181
+00:15:11,010 --> 00:15:15,070
+system of what of the par value percentage of par
+
+182
+00:15:15,070 --> 00:15:19,730
+value ال par value اللي هو القيمة الإسمية للسند
+
+183
+00:15:19,730 --> 00:15:24,650
+يعني القيمة هاي اللي أنتم شايفينها this is the
+
+184
+00:15:24,650 --> 00:15:29,230
+percentage of the par value يعني هي نسبة مئوية من
+
+185
+00:15:29,230 --> 00:15:33,010
+القيمة الاسمية so how we convert this into price
+
+186
+00:15:33,010 --> 00:15:38,270
+system كيف نحولها لسعر احنا بنعرفه the investors
+
+187
+00:15:38,270 --> 00:15:41,370
+they don't need to convert this ال investors they
+
+188
+00:15:41,370 --> 00:15:43,450
+don't need because they understand they know this
+
+189
+00:15:44,310 --> 00:15:47,110
+ال investors بيعرفوا الكلام هذا لكن أنتم as a
+
+190
+00:15:47,110 --> 00:15:49,710
+student you don't know this so you need to convert
+
+191
+00:15:49,710 --> 00:15:52,570
+into the prices system that you understand
+
+192
+00:15:52,570 --> 00:15:56,770
+بتحتاجوا تحولوها لأسعار أنتم بتعرفوها so how we
+
+193
+00:15:56,770 --> 00:16:01,430
+do this أول خطوة واتبعوا معايا وبفضل يكون معاكم
+
+194
+00:16:01,430 --> 00:16:05,330
+آلات حاسبة okay أكيد البنات اللي معاهم مش آلات
+
+195
+00:16:05,330 --> 00:16:08,210
+حاسبة مش هيفهموا اللي احنا بنحكي فيه definitely
+
+196
+00:16:08,210 --> 00:16:11,810
+يعني وبالتالي يعني رجاء أن تستخدموا آلة حاسبة
+
+197
+00:16:11,810 --> 00:16:19,250
+أول خطوة step one step one you have to calculate
+
+198
+00:16:19,250 --> 00:16:25,370
+the 09 لازم نحسب ال 09 the 09 is not the 09 as you
+
+199
+00:16:25,370 --> 00:16:29,830
+know this point 09 because we don't have point 09
+
+200
+00:16:29,830 --> 00:16:39,190
+we have 09 like this ماذا يعني 09 مثلًا، يعني 09 ÷
+
+201
+00:16:39,190 --> 00:16:43,510
+32، لذلك كون حذرًا، في مجلد جديد، كون حذرًا عن
+
+202
+00:16:43,510 --> 00:16:56,210
+هذا، لذلك 09 ÷ 32 يعني نقطة، حسنًا هي نقطة 28،
+
+203
+00:16:56,210 --> 00:17:03,030
+لذلك الآن 100.28
+
+204
+00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:11,740
+أنت تعرف أن 100 هو 100 و 28 يأتي من 09 مقال 32 هذا
+
+205
+00:17:11,740 --> 00:17:18,020
+هو الخطوة الأولى الخطوة الثانية هي
+
+206
+00:17:18,020 --> 00:17:29,100
+أن تزيد أسعار البيت بالمقال البر 100
+
+207
+00:17:29,100 --> 00:17:33,460
+.28×1000
+
+208
+00:17:35,380 --> 00:17:46,180
+كون حذرا، وانتبهان، هذا الـ100.28 هو البرمجة،
+
+209
+00:17:46,180 --> 00:17:50,900
+مرة أخرى، مرحلة واحدة أو سيب واحد، 09 مقال 32 يعني
+
+210
+00:17:50,900 --> 00:17:59,560
+0.28، الأن تضيف 28 إلى 100، فهو 100.28،
+
+211
+00:18:01,300 --> 00:18:08,300
+الدرجة التالية أو الدرجة الثانية هي 100.28×1000
+
+212
+00:18:08,300 --> 00:18:15,420
+1000 هو قيمة الـ bar كون حذرا، اسمعني، كون حذرا،
+
+213
+00:18:15,420 --> 00:18:22,960
+128 هو مجموعة، كيف نفعلها بعد أن نقل هذا إلى هذا
+
+214
+00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:27,340
+ونقله إلى 100 طبعا
+
+215
+00:18:27,340 --> 00:18:28,520
+بعد ما نطلع الجواب
+
+216
+00:18:31,470 --> 00:18:39,190
+هذا طبعا ألف بوينت 8 okay
+
+217
+00:18:39,190 --> 00:18:42,350
+now
+
+218
+00:18:42,350 --> 00:18:47,760
+this is for the bid price yes this is dollar This
+
+219
+00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,760
+price is dollar if you match between the price
+
+220
+00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:56,020
+here look at the price here look at the price one
+
+221
+00:18:56,020 --> 00:19:00,000
+thousand two point eight and the price bid price
+
+222
+00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:05,540
+is totally different بيختلف كتير عن بعض لأن هذا is
+
+223
+00:19:05,540 --> 00:19:08,980
+a pricing system based on the dollar هذا طريق
+
+224
+00:19:08,980 --> 00:19:12,600
+تسعير بالدولار and this pricing system based on
+
+225
+00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:18,600
+the percentage and the divided by 32 Let's go to the
+
+226
+00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:24,420
+ask price اعملوا لحالكم ال ask price هاي ال ask
+
+227
+00:19:24,420 --> 00:19:29,100
+price اعملوا لوحدكم ال ask price one hundred and
+
+228
+00:19:29,100 --> 00:19:36,780
+ten convert this price into the pricing system or
+
+229
+00:19:36,780 --> 00:19:39,240
+the normal pricing system ماحكتلك هذا ال standard
+
+230
+00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:44,120
+في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية لأ مش معطف سؤال أنت
+
+231
+00:19:44,120 --> 00:19:48,150
+لأ you have to know it by yourself be careful هذه
+
+232
+00:19:48,150 --> 00:19:53,090
+المعلومات أنا بعطيكم بس الجدول بعطيكم الجدول as
+
+233
+00:19:53,090 --> 00:19:56,810
+this table and do it by yourself ببحكي لكم مش أنا
+
+234
+00:19:56,810 --> 00:20:03,830
+اجسمها 32 you have to do by yourself هذه 100.28
+
+235
+00:20:03,830 --> 00:20:08,890
+okay خلّي أنت كأنها مش موجودة تبني ضرب الألف بعد
+
+236
+00:20:08,890 --> 00:20:14,830
+ما يطلع الجواب اجسمي عالمية بيطلع كام طب نتبع خطوة
+
+237
+00:20:14,830 --> 00:20:24,010
+خطوة الخطوة خطوة الخطوة
+
+238
+00:20:24,010 --> 00:20:27,410
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+239
+00:20:27,410 --> 00:20:28,170
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+240
+00:20:28,170 --> 00:20:29,630
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+241
+00:20:29,630 --> 00:20:29,890
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+242
+00:20:29,890 --> 00:20:39,530
+الخطوة الخطوة
+
+243
+00:20:39,530 --> 00:20:43,610
+الخطو
+
+244
+00:20:45,070 --> 00:20:59,690
+1000 x 1000 بتطلع 1300.1 بس that's it this
+
+245
+00:20:59,690 --> 00:21:03,410
+result
+
+246
+00:21:03,410 --> 00:21:07,470
+based on the dollar value هذه قيمة الدولار معناه
+
+247
+00:21:07,470 --> 00:21:13,480
+كلام if I ask you اسمعوا يا بنات if I ask you how
+
+248
+00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:19,140
+much the dealer make profits from the bids and ask
+
+249
+00:21:19,140 --> 00:21:23,840
+price by using the dollar system؟ قد ايش لبح
+
+250
+00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,480
+التاجر و ال dealer بالدولار؟ 
+
+251
+00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:36,440
+كداش؟ ألف و ثلاثة point one minus point eight
+
+252
+00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:43,520
+بالظبط إذا ال profit of dealer is one thousand
+
+253
+00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:47,780
+three point one minus one thousand two point eight
+
+254
+00:21:47,780 --> 00:21:51,600
+okay
+
+255
+00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:56,820
+هيكون هذا سعر point three I think point three
+
+256
+00:21:56,820 --> 00:21:57,940
+dollar
+
+257
+00:22:00,110 --> 00:22:05,090
+if the investor bought one thousand bonds how much
+
+258
+00:22:05,090 --> 00:22:14,170
+they profit yes times one thousand listen 
+
+259
+00:22:14,170 --> 00:22:18,030
+carefully if the investor bought one thousand
+
+260
+00:22:18,030 --> 00:22:25,390
+bonds very simple يعني إذا كل سند إذا المستثمر 
+
+261
+00:22:25,390 --> 00:22:29,390
+اشترى ألف سند قداش بيكون بربح نضرب الألف في ال point
+
+262
+00:22:29,390 --> 00:22:29,690
+three
+
+263
+00:22:35,360 --> 00:22:40,660
+I told you if the investor bought 1000 bonds إذا
+
+264
+00:22:40,660 --> 00:22:47,100
+المستثمر اشترى 1000 سند قداش بتكون ربحه يعني يا
+
+265
+00:22:47,100 --> 00:22:52,760
+بنات بالعربي لو تاجر في غزة اشترى لعب اطفال وكل
+
+266
+00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:56,140
+لعبة بربح فيها عشرين شكل لو اشترى ألف لعبة قداش
+
+267
+00:22:56,140 --> 00:23:01,300
+بربح هذا ال bond prices هذا هو ال bond prices the
+
+268
+00:23:01,300 --> 00:23:05,740
+next meeting هنحكي على Stock Markets 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..23d2677f91777bb0d52fd22f2e220ada2fb042a0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1084 @@
+1
+00:00:21,010 --> 00:00:24,010
+ال .. المرة الفاتة كنا نحكي عن موضوع ال .. ال bond
+
+2
+00:00:24,010 --> 00:00:28,270
+markets okay و ال .. و ال stock marketsوحكينا we
+
+3
+00:00:28,270 --> 00:00:31,130
+classify the bond market into two different
+
+4
+00:00:31,130 --> 00:00:34,450
+markets the governmental market and the corporate
+
+5
+00:00:34,450 --> 00:00:38,950
+bond .. the corporate bonds and the governmental
+
+6
+00:00:38,950 --> 00:00:42,570
+bonds is issued by the governments and the
+
+7
+00:00:42,570 --> 00:00:45,890
+corporate bonds is issued by the companies and
+
+8
+00:00:45,890 --> 00:00:48,390
+they had .. we have different classifications of
+
+9
+00:00:48,390 --> 00:00:51,250
+these bonds يعني احنا في عندنا تصنيفات أخرى لل
+
+10
+00:00:51,250 --> 00:00:55,390
+bonds سواء كانت السندات الحكومية أو سندات الشركات
+
+11
+00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,560
+ال .. الهدف الأساسي اليوم the .. the main
+
+12
+00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,120
+objective of the meeting today is to show you how
+
+13
+00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,980
+the pricing system in the bonds كيف طرق التسعير في
+
+14
+00:01:06,980 --> 00:01:10,920
+ال bondsOkay and if we have time, we will go in
+
+15
+00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:14,420
+details about the bonds classifications وإذا كان
+
+16
+00:01:14,420 --> 00:01:17,120
+المعنى موجود، هنحكي عن ال bonds classifications و
+
+17
+00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:28,260
+تصنيفات ال bonds It is important to access www.wsj
+
+18
+00:01:28,260 --> 00:01:34,020
+.comthis website is for wall street journal this
+
+19
+00:01:34,020 --> 00:01:39,700
+is a very important website in 1970s 80s you have
+
+20
+00:01:39,700 --> 00:01:43,840
+to pay money in order to access this website يعني
+
+21
+00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:47,040
+بالسبعينات تمانينات حتى التسعينات لازم تدفعوا فلوس
+
+22
+00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,540
+عشان تدخلوا على هذا ال website اليوم هذا ال
+
+23
+00:01:50,540 --> 00:01:54,260
+website free so you can access this website easily
+
+24
+00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:58,040
+أهمية هذا ال website أنه بعرض ال pricing .. ال
+
+25
+00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,520
+pricing information about the bond market, about
+
+26
+00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,760
+the stock market, about every financial ..
+
+27
+00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,920
+financial markets in the United States يعني بيعرض
+
+28
+00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,460
+كل المعلومات اللي بتعلقة في الأسواق الولايات
+
+29
+00:02:09,460 --> 00:02:12,980
+المتحدة الأمريكيةطبعا هذا اكتر واحد مشهور و اكبر
+
+30
+00:02:12,980 --> 00:02:19,000
+موقع بيعمل generation لل financial data يعني
+
+31
+00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:24,060
+بيعطينا معلومات مالية فعشان تشوف ال prices just go
+
+32
+00:02:24,060 --> 00:02:27,800
+to the bond prices and you can see the ..
+
+33
+00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,460
+unfortunately the internet is not going well عشان
+
+34
+00:02:31,460 --> 00:02:35,520
+هيك مش هنقدر نورجيكم الكلام هذا فان شاء الله when
+
+35
+00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,600
+you go home so you just login the wall street
+
+36
+00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:42,800
+journal it's like thisلوح على ال Wall Street
+
+37
+00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:47,200
+Journal هاي اللي بتروح على market data go to the
+
+38
+00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:51,060
+market data center and go to the you have many
+
+39
+00:02:51,060 --> 00:02:55,880
+options for instance US stocks, mutual markets,
+
+40
+00:02:56,220 --> 00:03:01,280
+mutual funds and bond rates and credit markets
+
+41
+00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,460
+فبتروح على bond rates و credit markets بتشوفوا كل
+
+42
+00:03:04,460 --> 00:03:09,080
+البيانات متعلقة في الأسواق السندات okay
+
+43
+00:03:13,550 --> 00:03:22,770
+زي ما انتوا شايفين انها بال ..
+
+44
+00:03:22,770 --> 00:03:27,490
+okay طبعا الكتاب أخد هذه المعلومات من ال wall
+
+45
+00:03:27,490 --> 00:03:30,770
+street journal المعلومات هذه أصلا أخوها من ال wall
+
+46
+00:03:30,770 --> 00:03:35,230
+street journal ل for some US government bonds and
+
+47
+00:03:35,230 --> 00:03:41,680
+notesلبعض السندات الحكومية و ال notes بتاعة ال ..
+
+48
+00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,860
+طب what it means government bonds سندات حكومية بق
+
+49
+00:03:44,860 --> 00:03:48,100
+what it means government notes هاي is .. is
+
+50
+00:03:48,100 --> 00:03:50,620
+terminology related to the .. to the governments
+
+51
+00:03:50,620 --> 00:03:55,000
+هذه عبارة عن مصطلحات الحكومة أو جداتها بق the ..
+
+52
+00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,380
+the main difference between the government bonds
+
+53
+00:03:58,380 --> 00:04:03,220
+and the government notes is the span is the life
+
+54
+00:04:03,220 --> 00:04:07,780
+span life spanالفرق هو ال life span اللي هي المدة
+
+55
+00:04:07,780 --> 00:04:17,180
+so the government bonds is span over 30 years you
+
+56
+00:04:17,180 --> 00:04:24,540
+see the government bonds are
+
+57
+00:04:24,540 --> 00:04:30,560
+greater than 10 years however the government notes
+
+58
+00:04:33,230 --> 00:04:40,830
+is less than or equal ten years or less than or
+
+59
+00:04:40,830 --> 00:04:44,410
+equal ten years less than or equal ten years يعني
+
+60
+00:04:44,410 --> 00:04:48,650
+السندات الحكومية ال bonds هي أكتر من عشر سنوات
+
+61
+00:04:48,650 --> 00:04:52,330
+تمتد حتى تلاتين سنة حتى أنا شوفت على ال website
+
+62
+00:04:52,330 --> 00:04:55,430
+لعند ال ألفين و أتنين و أربعين إذا بتفتح ال
+
+63
+00:04:55,430 --> 00:04:58,130
+website هتشوفوا سندات لسنة الألفين و أتنين و
+
+64
+00:04:58,130 --> 00:05:03,490
+أربعين يعني كام سنةمن 2013 ل2042 يعني حوالي around
+
+65
+00:05:03,490 --> 00:05:07,630
+تلاتين سنة و أقل شويه okay فممكن في ال website
+
+66
+00:05:07,630 --> 00:05:11,390
+هتشوفوا ان في سندات up to the twenty years, twenty
+
+67
+00:05:11,390 --> 00:05:15,110
+-five years and thirty years ال government notes
+
+68
+00:05:15,110 --> 00:05:20,030
+هي نوع من أنواع السندات الحكومية لكن هي بتصدر بأقل
+
+69
+00:05:20,030 --> 00:05:27,110
+أو تساوي عشر سنوات okay هذا listing لهذه السندات
+
+70
+00:05:28,300 --> 00:05:31,600
+هذا هو example of the of the treasury of the
+
+71
+00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:35,220
+government bonds and notes نتطلع احنا how they
+
+72
+00:05:35,220 --> 00:05:38,460
+price this the first column is maturity date
+
+73
+00:05:38,460 --> 00:05:43,640
+maturity date اللي هو تاريخ الاستحقاق the second
+
+74
+00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:48,480
+column is the coupon rate اللي هو الفائدة this
+
+75
+00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:52,360
+coupon rate is paid annually or semiannually تدفع
+
+76
+00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:57,180
+سنويًا or يعني لو احنا خدنا ال 5.125 اللي هي هذه
+
+77
+00:05:58,050 --> 00:06:03,570
+Okay it may paid annually ممكن ندفعها annually
+
+78
+00:06:03,570 --> 00:06:07,530
+يعني سنويا or semi annually if it is semi annually
+
+79
+00:06:07,530 --> 00:06:12,350
+you have to divide it by two لازم نقسمها by two
+
+80
+00:06:12,350 --> 00:06:17,180
+why it is called coupon rateليش سمناها coupon rate
+
+81
+00:06:17,180 --> 00:06:23,800
+لأنه قبل التكنولوجيا يعني قبل 2009 كانوا يعطوا ال
+
+82
+00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:30,240
+investors ال bond holder يعطوهم bonds
+
+83
+00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:36,720
+يعطوهم سند بهذا الشكل and divided into into
+
+84
+00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:41,400
+coupons و مقسم إلى couponات فاكرين ال couponات
+
+85
+00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:48,540
+العادية هذه فكل couponعليه اللي هو ال cash ال cash
+
+86
+00:06:48,540 --> 00:06:53,190
+valuefor instance لو أجينا احنا أخدنا مثال خمسة
+
+87
+00:06:53,190 --> 00:06:57,350
+فاصلة واحد اتنين خمسة five point one two five قلول
+
+88
+00:06:57,350 --> 00:07:01,770
+coupon if it is paid semiannually it means every
+
+89
+00:07:01,770 --> 00:07:06,930
+six months so we time it by one thousand one
+
+90
+00:07:06,930 --> 00:07:10,450
+thousand is the bar value عشان نعرف كده احنا كل ست
+
+91
+00:07:10,450 --> 00:07:13,910
+شهور لازم ناخد من السند بيقول ال bar value ضرب
+
+92
+00:07:13,910 --> 00:07:17,390
+اللي هو ال coupon كم بتطلع سيبقوا عندكم على القالع
+
+93
+00:07:17,390 --> 00:07:20,480
+الحاسب بشوفوا كم تطلعو أنا بحسبها عندى كمان على ال
+
+94
+00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:26,360
+Excel عشان نشوف okay هلا نشوف ال bar value ألف
+
+95
+00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:32,200
+دولار هى ألف دولار okay اه
+
+96
+00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:36,620
+be careful as I said in the previous meeting the
+
+97
+00:07:36,620 --> 00:07:39,500
+treasury bills are issued by bar value ten
+
+98
+00:07:39,500 --> 00:07:46,240
+thousands bonds is issued by one thousandOkay, so
+
+99
+00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:51,960
+be careful on this. So the bar value is
+
+100
+00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:59,940
+1000 مكبر الخط The
+
+101
+00:07:59,940 --> 00:08:04,620
+coupon, coupon is called by C, we can use C, the
+
+102
+00:08:04,620 --> 00:08:10,500
+coupon is 5.125
+
+103
+00:08:10,500 --> 00:08:12,740
+and don't forget this is as a percentage
+
+104
+00:08:15,450 --> 00:08:21,450
+sorry yes this is the coupon is paid semiannually
+
+105
+00:08:21,450 --> 00:08:26,510
+ال coupon paid semiannually يعني لازم نكسبه على
+
+106
+00:08:26,510 --> 00:08:30,850
+إيش لازم
+
+107
+00:08:30,850 --> 00:08:34,890
+نكسبه على اتنين لأنه semiannual ايه semiannual
+
+108
+00:08:34,890 --> 00:08:41,130
+يعني نفس غنوية يعني هذه الفائدة هي annual this
+
+109
+00:08:41,130 --> 00:08:45,710
+is standardهذا ال standard في السوق المالي خلاص
+
+110
+00:08:45,710 --> 00:08:49,110
+يعني عارفين ال investors they suggested the prices
+
+111
+00:08:49,110 --> 00:08:53,730
+and suggested coupon rates are annual يعني عارفين
+
+112
+00:08:53,730 --> 00:08:57,930
+ال investors هذي annual فعشان نحسب ال semi-annual
+
+113
+00:08:57,930 --> 00:09:01,510
+you have to divide it by two ال semi-annual ل 6
+
+114
+00:09:01,510 --> 00:09:04,690
+شهور يعني إذا بالسنة بناخد المبلغ هذا طب بال 6
+
+115
+00:09:04,690 --> 00:09:09,590
+شهور قداش نقسم على 2 okay فإحنا لو روح نقسم
+
+116
+00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:20,920
+بتقسيم اتنين okay بطلع اللي هو point 025 عشان نعرف
+
+117
+00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:27,600
+كده هيطلع علينا كل ست شهور اللي هو ال cash cash
+
+118
+00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:32,580
+هيطلع يساوي اللي هو الألف بنضربها في ال rates
+
+119
+00:09:32,580 --> 00:09:38,680
+فبطلع عندنا كل ست شهور بناخد خمسة و عشرين دولار
+
+120
+00:09:38,680 --> 00:09:41,900
+فاصلة 625 فبيجي
+
+121
+00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:52,840
+نعيدها أخر مرة الـ bar value ألف دولار ال coupon
+
+122
+00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:59,920
+كم؟ five point one two five don't forget this is
+
+123
+00:09:59,920 --> 00:10:04,500
+percentage طيب لما بنيجي semi annual كل ست شهور
+
+124
+00:10:04,500 --> 00:10:09,540
+لازم نقسمها c على two اللي هو five one two five
+
+125
+00:10:09,540 --> 00:10:20,820
+divided by twoبطلع الجواب هان يعني اتنين و نص ستة
+
+126
+00:10:20,820 --> 00:10:26,720
+اتنين خمسة في المية okay هلأ هذا الجواب بنضربه في
+
+127
+00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:31,420
+الألف دولار بطلع عندنا خمسة و عشرين دولار ست مية و
+
+128
+00:10:31,420 --> 00:10:35,720
+خمسة و عشرين هلأ كل .. every six months كل ست شهور
+
+129
+00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:40,860
+بيكون في عندي couponكل ست شهور فبيجي ال investor
+
+130
+00:10:40,860 --> 00:10:47,720
+برفع ال coupon و بروح البنك و بيحط قيمته okay من
+
+131
+00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:52,860
+هون اجت كلمة coupon فال coupon بمزع ال .. يعني ال
+
+132
+00:10:52,860 --> 00:10:57,020
+coupon العادية فبمزع ال investors ال .. ال ..
+
+133
+00:10:57,020 --> 00:10:59,700
+الورقة اللي بتخص ال ست شهور هذه و بروح البنك و
+
+134
+00:10:59,700 --> 00:11:04,210
+بحصل قيمتهاالان مثلا خلصت هذه الست شهور الجاى برضه
+
+135
+00:11:04,210 --> 00:11:08,210
+بمزعل بعديها و هكذا لما يخلص الكوبون لمدة .. زى
+
+136
+00:11:08,210 --> 00:11:13,810
+الشكال بالظبط هلأ هذا النظام خلص هذا النظام لعندي
+
+137
+00:11:13,810 --> 00:11:18,350
+التسعين كان موجود هلأ صار كله electronic كل
+
+138
+00:11:18,350 --> 00:11:21,470
+electronic يتم .. كل ست شهور يضعف للحساب قيمة
+
+139
+00:11:21,470 --> 00:11:31,920
+الكوبون okay نرجع لل ..على ال 25.625 دربتها اسمها
+
+140
+00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,980
+كيفش بتعملها دربتها في ال 1100 ضرب عليها هى هذى
+
+141
+00:11:35,980 --> 00:11:46,420
+تساوي 1000 مضروبة في 5.125 divided by 2 okay بتطلع
+
+142
+00:11:46,420 --> 00:11:55,960
+هذا القيمة okay okay مش
+
+143
+00:11:55,960 --> 00:12:01,070
+سامعاقرأ الأسئلة في نهاية ال chapter بتعرف كيف
+
+144
+00:12:01,070 --> 00:12:08,890
+تيجي okay هلأ خلصنا ال .. خلصنا ال coupon خلصنا ال
+
+145
+00:12:08,890 --> 00:12:15,410
+coupon ال coupon rates كمان مرة هو سعر فائدة
+
+146
+00:12:15,410 --> 00:12:19,350
+الكوبوني اللي احنا هناخده على السند اللي هو قيمة
+
+147
+00:12:19,350 --> 00:12:25,130
+ال bar value تبع السند ألف دولار okay ال bid و ال
+
+148
+00:12:25,130 --> 00:12:31,260
+ask نيجي نحكي ع ال bid و ال askال bid و ال ask
+
+149
+00:12:31,260 --> 00:12:38,640
+خلّيني
+
+150
+00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,360
+لحظة بس نحكي على ال bid و ال ask
+
+151
+00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:52,340
+الـ bid و ال ask price ناخد ال bid 100.09 لاحظوا
+
+152
+00:12:52,340 --> 00:12:57,380
+طريقة التسعير 100 نقطتين فوق بعض مش نقطة محتوطة
+
+153
+00:12:57,380 --> 00:13:04,580
+نقطتين فوق بعض 09110 ايش
+
+154
+00:13:04,580 --> 00:13:11,820
+معناه what it means this خليني بس لحظة نحكي 100
+
+155
+00:13:11,820 --> 00:13:18,050
+نقطتين فوق بعضO9 100 وتنفق بعد 10 تطلعوا على اللي
+
+156
+00:13:18,050 --> 00:13:22,330
+موجود عندكم موجود نقطة ولا نقطتين okay what it
+
+157
+00:13:22,330 --> 00:13:29,290
+means ايش معناها لأ مش 9% بتعني ان هذا الرقم ال O9
+
+158
+00:13:29,290 --> 00:13:39,020
+and 10 is divided by 32 مقصوم على 32ليش؟ this is
+
+159
+00:13:39,020 --> 00:13:44,300
+standard in the US markets هذا standard في أسواق
+
+160
+00:13:44,300 --> 00:13:47,060
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية طبعا لأنه في الولايات
+
+161
+00:13:47,060 --> 00:13:51,640
+المتحدة الأمريكية بيستخدموا نظام التسعير الكسر
+
+162
+00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,500
+العادي بيستخدموا الكسر العادي مش الكسر العشري
+
+163
+00:13:55,500 --> 00:13:59,240
+كانوا في السابق يستخدموا one divided by eight
+
+164
+00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:05,680
+سابقا بعدين استخدموا one divided by sixteenبعدين
+
+165
+00:14:05,680 --> 00:14:12,440
+استخدموا one divided by 32 أول تمن واحدة ستة عشر
+
+166
+00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,580
+واحدة اتنين و تلاتين فإذا انتوا بتشوفين هذا الرقم
+
+167
+00:14:15,580 --> 00:14:19,900
+هذا الرقم يعني او نين على اتنين و تلاتين طبعا ال
+
+168
+00:14:19,900 --> 00:14:22,640
+investors بيقولولهمش الكلام هذا because they
+
+169
+00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:26,320
+already know about this ال investors ما بيحكولهمش
+
+170
+00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,780
+لأن ال investors عارفين الكلام هذا ان او نين
+
+171
+00:14:28,780 --> 00:14:32,980
+divided by 32 how to convert this into price كيف
+
+172
+00:14:32,980 --> 00:14:39,290
+نحولها لسعركمان مرة ال bid و ال ask مش مسعرة
+
+173
+00:14:39,290 --> 00:14:43,170
+بطريقة التسعير اللي احنا بنعرفه يعني اما احنا نروح
+
+174
+00:14:43,170 --> 00:14:47,190
+على السوق مثلا نسأل كام سعر الغسالة هيجي يحكينا
+
+175
+00:14:47,190 --> 00:14:51,730
+سعر الغسالة 500 شكل بس في الأسواق المالية ما
+
+176
+00:14:51,730 --> 00:14:54,270
+بيعملوا هاي ال pricing system ما بيعملوش نظام
+
+177
+00:14:54,270 --> 00:14:58,450
+التسعير عندهم نظام تسعير بختلف تماما عن اللي احنا
+
+178
+00:14:58,450 --> 00:15:03,030
+بنعرفهنظام التسعير الموجود في ال bonds تحديدا ال
+
+179
+00:15:03,030 --> 00:15:06,890
+bonds they use percentage system احفظوها they use
+
+180
+00:15:06,890 --> 00:15:11,010
+percentage system percentage
+
+181
+00:15:11,010 --> 00:15:15,070
+system of what of the bar value percentage of bar
+
+182
+00:15:15,070 --> 00:15:19,730
+value ال bar value اللي هو القيمة الإسمية للسند
+
+183
+00:15:19,730 --> 00:15:24,650
+يعني القيمة هاي اللي انتوا شايفينها thisis the
+
+184
+00:15:24,650 --> 00:15:29,230
+percentage of the bar value يعني هي نسبة مأوية من
+
+185
+00:15:29,230 --> 00:15:33,010
+القيمة الاسمية so how we convert this into price
+
+186
+00:15:33,010 --> 00:15:38,270
+system كيف نحولها لسعر احنا بنعرفه the investors
+
+187
+00:15:38,270 --> 00:15:41,370
+they don't need to convert this ال investors they
+
+188
+00:15:41,370 --> 00:15:43,450
+don't need because they understand they know this
+
+189
+00:15:44,310 --> 00:15:47,110
+ال investors بيعرفوا الكلام هذا لكن انتوا as a
+
+190
+00:15:47,110 --> 00:15:49,710
+student you don't know this so you need to convert
+
+191
+00:15:49,710 --> 00:15:52,570
+into the prices system that you understand
+
+192
+00:15:52,570 --> 00:15:56,770
+بتحتاجوا تحولوها لأسعار انتوا بتعرفوها so how we
+
+193
+00:15:56,770 --> 00:16:01,430
+do this أول خطوة و اتبعوا معايا و بفضل يكون معاكم
+
+194
+00:16:01,430 --> 00:16:05,330
+آلات حاسبة okay أكيد البنات اللي معاهم مش آلات
+
+195
+00:16:05,330 --> 00:16:08,210
+حاسبة مش هيفهموا اللي احنا بنحكي فيهdefinitely
+
+196
+00:16:08,210 --> 00:16:11,810
+يعني وبالتالي يعني رجاء أن تستخدموا القانعة حاسبة
+
+197
+00:16:11,810 --> 00:16:19,250
+أول خطوة step one step one you have to calculate
+
+198
+00:16:19,250 --> 00:16:25,370
+the o9 لازم نحسب ال o9 the o9 is not the o9 as you
+
+199
+00:16:25,370 --> 00:16:29,830
+know this point o9 because we don't have point o9
+
+200
+00:16:29,830 --> 00:16:39,190
+we have o9 like thisماذا يعني 09 مثلًا، يعني 09 ÷
+
+201
+00:16:39,190 --> 00:16:43,510
+32، لذلك كون حذرًا، في مجلد جديد، كون حذرًا عن
+
+202
+00:16:43,510 --> 00:16:56,210
+هذا، لذلك 09 ÷ 32 يعني نقطة، حسنًا هي نقطة 28،
+
+203
+00:16:56,210 --> 00:17:03,030
+لذلك الآن 100.28
+
+204
+00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:11,740
+أنت تعرف أن 100 هو 100 و 28 يأتي من 09 مقال 32 هذا
+
+205
+00:17:11,740 --> 00:17:18,020
+هو الخطوة الأولى الخطوة الثانوية هي
+
+206
+00:17:18,020 --> 00:17:29,100
+أن تزيد أسعار البيت بالمقال البر 100
+
+207
+00:17:29,100 --> 00:17:33,460
+.28×1000
+
+208
+00:17:35,380 --> 00:17:46,180
+كون حذرا، وانتبهان، هذا الـ100.28 هو البرمجة،
+
+209
+00:17:46,180 --> 00:17:50,900
+مرة أخرى، مرحلة واحدة أو سيب واحد، 09 مقال 32 يعني
+
+210
+00:17:50,900 --> 00:17:59,560
+0.28، الأن تضيف 28 إلى 100، فهو 100.28،
+
+211
+00:18:01,300 --> 00:18:08,300
+الدرجة التالية او الدرجة الثانية هي 100.28×1000
+
+212
+00:18:08,300 --> 00:18:15,420
+1000 هو قيمة الـ bar كون حذرا، اسمعني، كون حذرا،
+
+213
+00:18:15,420 --> 00:18:22,960
+128 هو مجموعة، كيف نفعلها بعد أن نقل هذا إلى هذا
+
+214
+00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:27,340
+ونقله إلى 100 طبعا
+
+215
+00:18:27,340 --> 00:18:28,520
+بعد ما نطلع الجواب
+
+216
+00:18:31,470 --> 00:18:39,190
+هذا طبعا الف point eight okay
+
+217
+00:18:39,190 --> 00:18:42,350
+now
+
+218
+00:18:42,350 --> 00:18:47,760
+this is for the bid price yes this is dollarThis
+
+219
+00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,760
+price is dollar if you match between the price
+
+220
+00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:56,020
+here look at the price here look at the price one
+
+221
+00:18:56,020 --> 00:19:00,000
+thousand two point eight and the price bid price
+
+222
+00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:05,540
+is totally different بختلف كتير عن بعض لأن هذا is
+
+223
+00:19:05,540 --> 00:19:08,980
+a pricing system based on the dollar هذا طريق
+
+224
+00:19:08,980 --> 00:19:12,600
+تسعير بالدولار and this pricing system based on
+
+225
+00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:18,600
+the percentage and the divided by 32Lets go to the
+
+226
+00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:24,420
+ask price اعملوا لحالكوا ال ask price هاي ال ask
+
+227
+00:19:24,420 --> 00:19:29,100
+price اعملوا لوحدكم ال ask price one hundred and
+
+228
+00:19:29,100 --> 00:19:36,780
+ten convert this price into the pricing system or
+
+229
+00:19:36,780 --> 00:19:39,240
+the normal pricing system ماحكتلك هذا ال standard
+
+230
+00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:44,120
+في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية لأ مش معطف سؤال انت
+
+231
+00:19:44,120 --> 00:19:48,150
+لأ you have to know it by yourself be carefulهذه
+
+232
+00:19:48,150 --> 00:19:53,090
+المعلومات انا بعطيكوا بس الجدول بعطيكوا الجدول as
+
+233
+00:19:53,090 --> 00:19:56,810
+this table and do it by yourself ببحكي لكم مش انا
+
+234
+00:19:56,810 --> 00:20:03,830
+اجسمها 32 you have to do by yourself هذه 100.28
+
+235
+00:20:03,830 --> 00:20:08,890
+okay خلّي انت كأنها مش موجودة تبني ضرب الألف بعد
+
+236
+00:20:08,890 --> 00:20:14,830
+ما يطلع الجواب جسمي عالمية بيطلع كام طب نتبع خطوة
+
+237
+00:20:14,830 --> 00:20:24,010
+خطوةالخطوة خطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+238
+00:20:24,010 --> 00:20:27,410
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+239
+00:20:27,410 --> 00:20:27,410
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+240
+00:20:27,410 --> 00:20:28,170
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+241
+00:20:28,170 --> 00:20:29,630
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+242
+00:20:29,630 --> 00:20:29,890
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+243
+00:20:29,890 --> 00:20:29,890
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+244
+00:20:29,890 --> 00:20:29,890
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+245
+00:20:29,890 --> 00:20:39,530
+الخطوة الخطوة
+
+246
+00:20:39,530 --> 00:20:43,610
+الخطو
+
+247
+00:20:45,070 --> 00:20:59,690
+1000 x 1000 تطلع 1300.1 بس that's it this
+
+248
+00:20:59,690 --> 00:21:03,410
+result
+
+249
+00:21:03,410 --> 00:21:07,470
+based on the dollar value هذه قيمة الدولار معناه
+
+250
+00:21:07,470 --> 00:21:13,480
+كلام if I ask youاسمعوا يا بنات if I ask you how
+
+251
+00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:19,140
+much the dealer make profits from the bids and ask
+
+252
+00:21:19,140 --> 00:21:23,840
+price by using the dollar system؟ قد ياش لبح
+
+253
+00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,480
+التاجر و ال dealer بالدولار؟
+
+254
+00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:36,440
+كداش؟ ألف و تلاتة point one minus point eight
+
+255
+00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:43,520
+بالظبط اذا ال profit of dealer is one thousand
+
+256
+00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:47,780
+three point one minus one thousand two point eight
+
+257
+00:21:47,780 --> 00:21:51,600
+okay
+
+258
+00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:56,820
+هيكون هذا سعر point three I think point three
+
+259
+00:21:56,820 --> 00:21:57,940
+dollar
+
+260
+00:22:00,110 --> 00:22:05,090
+if the investor bought one thousand bonds how much
+
+261
+00:22:05,090 --> 00:22:14,170
+they profit yes time one thousand listen
+
+262
+00:22:14,170 --> 00:22:18,030
+carefully if the investor bought one thousand
+
+263
+00:22:18,030 --> 00:22:25,390
+bonds very simple يعني إذا كل سند إذا المستثمر
+
+264
+00:22:25,390 --> 00:22:29,390
+اشترى الف سند جدراش بيكون بربح نضرب الألف ال point
+
+265
+00:22:29,390 --> 00:22:29,690
+three
+
+266
+00:22:35,360 --> 00:22:40,660
+I told you if the investor bought 1000 bonds اذا
+
+267
+00:22:40,660 --> 00:22:47,100
+المستثمر اشترى 1000 سند قداش بتكون ربحه يعني يا
+
+268
+00:22:47,100 --> 00:22:52,760
+بنات بالعربي لو تاجر في غزة اشترى لعب اطفال وكل
+
+269
+00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:56,140
+لعبة بربح فيها عشرين شكل لو اشترى الف لعبة قداش
+
+270
+00:22:56,140 --> 00:23:01,300
+بربح هذا ال bond prices هذا هو ال bond prices the
+
+271
+00:23:01,300 --> 00:23:05,740
+next meetingهنحكي على Stock Markets
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DzebllRyxXM_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DzebllRyxXM_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d7037756f369512f17c9ad4ffe5b066878238742
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DzebllRyxXM_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1680 @@
+1
+00:00:21,090 --> 00:00:25,350
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم ال .. في ال previous
+
+2
+00:00:25,350 --> 00:00:30,310
+meeting .. في ال previous meeting في اللقاءات
+
+3
+00:00:30,310 --> 00:00:36,330
+الماضية كنا نحكي عن ال interest rates و ال
+
+4
+00:00:36,330 --> 00:00:41,910
+effective rate of return و حكينا على الموضوع إن
+
+5
+00:00:41,910 --> 00:00:44,770
+إذا كنا احنا بنحكي .. نحسب ال effective annual
+
+6
+00:00:44,770 --> 00:00:49,430
+returnif it is less than one year اذا أقل من سنة
+
+7
+00:00:49,430 --> 00:00:52,390
+we can use this calculation or this equation and
+
+8
+00:00:52,390 --> 00:00:55,130
+if it is greater than one year so we can use this
+
+9
+00:00:55,130 --> 00:01:00,230
+onethis is the idea of the interest rate of return
+
+10
+00:01:00,230 --> 00:01:04,650
+so the most important thing is coming in the
+
+11
+00:01:04,650 --> 00:01:08,330
+further stages الشغلات الأهم من هي هي جاية في
+
+12
+00:01:08,330 --> 00:01:12,050
+الصفحات الجاية اللي هنعمل عليها تطبيق يعني هذا مش
+
+13
+00:01:12,050 --> 00:01:15,470
+كتير انه احنا بس introduction لكم هنطبق في
+
+14
+00:01:15,470 --> 00:01:20,070
+اللقاءات الجاية how we can use the interest rate
+
+15
+00:01:20,070 --> 00:01:22,190
+of return كيف ممكن نستخدم ال interest rate of
+
+16
+00:01:22,190 --> 00:01:28,510
+return if you look carefully at this tableنتطلع ال
+
+17
+00:01:28,510 --> 00:01:30,650
+relationship between treasury bills and the
+
+18
+00:01:30,650 --> 00:01:33,630
+inflation العلاقة بين ال treasury bills و بين ال
+
+19
+00:01:33,630 --> 00:01:39,530
+inflation and this is a very important
+
+20
+00:01:39,530 --> 00:01:41,990
+relationship between inflation and the treasury
+
+21
+00:01:41,990 --> 00:01:45,650
+bills rate of return يعني كتير مهم أنحن نعرف
+
+22
+00:01:45,650 --> 00:01:52,120
+العلاقة بين التدخمو بين العقد التدخم وبين العقد
+
+23
+00:01:52,120 --> 00:02:00,360
+اللي هو ال interest rate و ال inflation طيب لو
+
+24
+00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:06,120
+احنا طلعنا على ال treasury bills in 1926 it is 3
+
+25
+00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:13,260
+.71 okay the real treasury bills is 0.70 the
+
+26
+00:02:13,260 --> 00:02:20,000
+inflation is 3.10 just focus onعن هذا، لذلك،
+
+27
+00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:25,200
+عمليات التحذير الواحدة من 10 هي 3.70 والتحذير 3
+
+28
+00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:37,020
+.10، فماذا تفهمين من هذا؟ هذا يعني أنه عندما
+
+29
+00:02:37,020 --> 00:02:41,360
+تزداد التحذير، انظر إلى التحذير عندما تزداد
+
+30
+00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:48,500
+التحذير، تتقل عمليات التحذير الحقيقةand this is
+
+31
+00:02:48,500 --> 00:02:54,420
+what we yes this is what we said in before three
+
+32
+00:02:54,420 --> 00:03:00,700
+meetings حكينا ان ال R small r is equal R minus I
+
+33
+00:03:00,700 --> 00:03:09,800
+ال I when I increase R decrease كل ما ال I بتزيد
+
+34
+00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:14,280
+ال inflation بتزيد كل ما ال R small r decrease طيب
+
+35
+00:03:15,630 --> 00:03:20,110
+look at treasury bills and inflation if you look
+
+36
+00:03:20,110 --> 00:03:26,190
+at the chart اذا احنا طلعنا عن ال chart if you
+
+37
+00:03:26,190 --> 00:03:30,690
+look at this chart this
+
+38
+00:03:30,690 --> 00:03:34,910
+is .. هي is the treasury bills هذا هو ال treasury
+
+39
+00:03:34,910 --> 00:03:44,340
+bills and this is R of treasury billsإذا قررنا أن
+
+40
+00:03:44,340 --> 00:03:52,440
+هذا 3.7 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71
+
+41
+00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:53,100
+في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في
+
+42
+00:03:53,100 --> 00:03:53,320
+جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم،
+
+43
+00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,680
+جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم،
+
+44
+00:03:55,680 --> 00:04:00,480
+فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3
+
+45
+00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:06,780
+.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم،
+
+46
+00:04:06,780 --> 00:04:06,820
+فهذا
+
+47
+00:04:15,150 --> 00:04:23,350
+.70 sorry okay approximately look
+
+48
+00:04:23,350 --> 00:04:28,510
+at here if we look carefully at this خليني بس
+
+49
+00:04:28,510 --> 00:04:31,490
+أعالكم zooming out أكبر الصورة عشان ت understand
+
+50
+00:04:31,490 --> 00:04:31,890
+this
+
+51
+00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:41,180
+this is a very very important if you don't
+
+52
+00:04:41,180 --> 00:04:44,300
+understand this it means you will challenge
+
+53
+00:04:44,300 --> 00:04:49,500
+problems in the in the next three four pages اذا
+
+54
+00:04:49,500 --> 00:04:52,260
+مافهمتوش هذه العلاقة هتكون عندكم مشكلة في كمان
+
+55
+00:04:52,260 --> 00:04:58,000
+اربع خمس صفحات شوفوا هيك you
+
+56
+00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,600
+know this this is security market line هذا هو
+
+57
+00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:05,580
+security market line and this is treasury bills as
+
+58
+00:05:05,580 --> 00:05:17,260
+I said all of thisis R which is equal to 3.71 so
+
+59
+00:05:17,260 --> 00:05:21,520
+the nominal R is the nominal the nominal of the
+
+60
+00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:26,080
+treasury bills is 3.71 as in the table here 3.71
+
+61
+00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:36,240
+the inflation rate is 3 is this area 3.10
+
+62
+00:05:38,530 --> 00:05:46,870
+this is I so I is three point one so now according
+
+63
+00:05:46,870 --> 00:05:52,170
+to this chart حسب ال chart هان this is the real
+
+64
+00:05:52,170 --> 00:05:58,270
+rate of return R just apply this equation R small
+
+65
+00:05:58,270 --> 00:06:04,990
+R is equal big R minus I so this is big R all of
+
+66
+00:06:04,990 --> 00:06:11,470
+thisminus I so we get .. we end up with small r
+
+67
+00:06:11,470 --> 00:06:17,190
+okay so if you increase I look at this if you
+
+68
+00:06:17,190 --> 00:06:22,830
+increase I, R becomes smaller and smaller يعني كل
+
+69
+00:06:22,830 --> 00:06:25,930
+ما احنا بنزود ال I، ال I بتصير smaller and smaller
+
+70
+00:06:27,300 --> 00:06:31,680
+بتصير ال small r the real rate of return becomes
+
+71
+00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:35,900
+smaller and smaller يعني بتبدأ تنخفض ال real rate
+
+72
+00:06:35,900 --> 00:06:39,400
+of return what
+
+73
+00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,560
+you observe then what we observe we observe many
+
+74
+00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:46,420
+things ايش احنا بنلاحظ؟ بنلاحظ كتير أشياء ال first
+
+75
+00:06:46,420 --> 00:06:50,180
+one we have a negative relationship between small
+
+76
+00:06:50,180 --> 00:06:56,300
+r and Ias I become bigger and bigger, R becomes
+
+77
+00:06:56,300 --> 00:07:00,780
+smaller and smaller يعني كل ما ال I بتكبر ال R
+
+78
+00:07:00,780 --> 00:07:04,600
+بتبدأ تزال okay just from the chart point of view
+
+79
+00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:08,140
+من وجهة نظر ال chart we know this from the
+
+80
+00:07:08,140 --> 00:07:12,300
+equation point of view يعني احنا فاهمين الكلام هذا
+
+81
+00:07:12,300 --> 00:07:16,740
+من وجهة نظر ال equation as the equation saying and
+
+82
+00:07:16,740 --> 00:07:17,260
+this is
+
+83
+00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,880
+this table is an accurate table and a real table
+
+84
+00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,820
+from the united states هذا هو table صحيح من ال
+
+85
+00:07:28,820 --> 00:07:30,940
+united states from nineteen twenty six to two
+
+86
+00:07:30,940 --> 00:07:33,480
+thousand and nine يعني هذا من سنة الف وتسعمائة
+
+87
+00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,300
+وتسعت وعشرين لسنة الف وتسعمائة لسنة الفين وتسعة
+
+88
+00:07:36,300 --> 00:07:42,140
+هذا ال table صحيح okay so the the real treasury
+
+89
+00:07:42,140 --> 00:07:46,620
+bills is point seventy so the the one observation
+
+90
+00:07:46,620 --> 00:07:52,950
+is as as i explainedthe one observation is when I
+
+91
+00:07:52,950 --> 00:07:57,050
+become bigger and bigger R become smaller and
+
+92
+00:07:57,050 --> 00:08:03,270
+smaller يعني كل ما بتكبر ال I كل ما ال R real كل
+
+93
+00:08:03,270 --> 00:08:09,010
+ما كانت decrease other factors are equal other
+
+94
+00:08:09,010 --> 00:08:12,310
+factors and equal معسبات العوامل أخرى other
+
+95
+00:08:12,310 --> 00:08:18,720
+factors are equal okay nowif you compare between
+
+96
+00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:25,080
+the 1968 with 1968,
+
+97
+00:08:25,220 --> 00:08:33,420
+2009 and 1926, 1967 اتصلح وانشوف احنا بال .. لو
+
+98
+00:08:33,420 --> 00:08:39,920
+قررنا ال 1968 ل 2009 مع ال 1926 ل 1967 what you
+
+99
+00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:45,560
+observe the treasury billsis greater than .. the
+
+100
+00:08:45,560 --> 00:08:50,020
+real .. sorry .. the treasury bills is greater
+
+101
+00:08:50,020 --> 00:08:53,700
+than the R nominal of treasury bills in the recent
+
+102
+00:08:53,700 --> 00:08:57,720
+years is greater than in the .. in the early .. in
+
+103
+00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:06,500
+the .. in the previous years نتطلع في ال .. في
+
+104
+00:09:06,500 --> 00:09:10,140
+السابق كان عند ال .. في السابق كان عند ال .. ال
+
+105
+00:09:10,140 --> 00:09:13,200
+real .. sorry ال nominal rate of return one point
+
+106
+00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:20,040
+sixty sevenيعني من سنة ال 26 لل 67 كان عندى 1.67
+
+107
+00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,500
+اللى هو ال nominal rate of return من سنة ال 68 ل
+
+108
+00:09:24,500 --> 00:09:30,660
+2009 ال nominal rate of return زد you know why؟ في
+
+109
+00:09:30,660 --> 00:09:35,340
+حد بعرف ليش؟ from the chart from the table look at
+
+110
+00:09:35,340 --> 00:09:40,980
+the table how much the inflation increaseyou are
+
+111
+00:09:40,980 --> 00:09:44,700
+right الinflation هو السبب يعني انتوا لاحظوا انه
+
+112
+00:09:44,700 --> 00:09:48,220
+طلع انت just compare this with this انه كان five
+
+113
+00:09:48,220 --> 00:09:52,320
+point seventy five sorry في السنوات الأخيرة بعد
+
+114
+00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,780
+سبعة و تمانية و ستين ال nominal rate of return
+
+115
+00:09:55,780 --> 00:10:01,060
+five point seventy five في السبتة و عشرين و سبعة و
+
+116
+00:10:01,060 --> 00:10:10,010
+ستين قديما1.67 why؟ ليش .. سؤال .. سؤال مختصر ليش
+
+117
+00:10:10,010 --> 00:10:12,970
+ال nominal rate of return زاد في الفترات الأخيرة
+
+118
+00:10:12,970 --> 00:10:17,410
+فاطمة she said because of inflation look at this
+
+119
+00:10:17,410 --> 00:10:21,790
+the inflation because of the .. اه ال inflation
+
+120
+00:10:21,790 --> 00:10:30,250
+زاد فطبيعي بالظبط شايفين فعلاقة ترضية اذا هاي this
+
+121
+00:10:30,250 --> 00:10:36,650
+is the first the secondthe second relation is as
+
+122
+00:10:36,650 --> 00:10:44,330
+long as I increase as long as I increase sorry I
+
+123
+00:10:44,330 --> 00:10:45,030
+increase
+
+124
+00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:52,200
+when I is become grow .. become bigger and bigger
+
+125
+00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,400
+the big R become bigger and bigger so this is
+
+126
+00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,160
+positive relation between between the nominal rate
+
+127
+00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,600
+of return and I look at here this is the second لو
+
+128
+00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,020
+احنا طلعنا على الشغل التاني from the table look at
+
+129
+00:11:05,020 --> 00:11:09,220
+the table لاحظنا ال inflation صغيرة شايفين شو ال
+
+130
+00:11:09,220 --> 00:11:12,420
+nominal rate of return صغير صار لاحظنا ال
+
+131
+00:11:12,420 --> 00:11:15,920
+inflation زادت ال nominal rate of return شو صار
+
+132
+00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:17,120
+فيه decrease
+
+133
+00:11:20,660 --> 00:11:24,800
+Okay يعني هاي .. هاي سبب .. يعني هاي ملاحظة تانية
+
+134
+00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,460
+.. the second observation هاي observation تانية
+
+135
+00:11:27,460 --> 00:11:36,040
+احنا بنلاحظها لو بدنا .. okay ال real لما بيقل شو
+
+136
+00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:44,500
+سبب انه بيقل؟ مناشر ال real
+
+137
+00:11:44,500 --> 00:11:50,430
+.. ال real بيقل okay هاي ال realبدي أقل متى بيقل
+
+138
+00:11:50,430 --> 00:11:56,270
+ال real بيقل عشان ال inflation بتزيد يعني
+
+139
+00:11:56,270 --> 00:11:59,550
+ال real هان is a function of خد بالك ال real is
+
+140
+00:11:59,550 --> 00:12:05,350
+independent مستقل عفوا عامل تابع لل is dependent
+
+141
+00:12:05,350 --> 00:12:08,870
+عامل تابع لل .. إذا ال inflation هو اللي بيعمل كل
+
+142
+00:12:08,870 --> 00:12:16,510
+المشكلة ال I هي عاملة كل المشكلة ليش؟
+
+143
+00:12:23,060 --> 00:12:29,720
+المفروض يكون اقل يطلع ايش ال .. ال real هذا اه بس
+
+144
+00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,780
+خد بالك ان ال treasure bills زادت و ال inflation
+
+145
+00:12:32,780 --> 00:12:36,660
+زادت فالفرق بين اتهم خلى ال real يزيد كمان طبعا
+
+146
+00:12:36,660 --> 00:12:42,620
+الفرق يعني الفرق هذا نقص هذا بيخلى يزيد طيب هذا
+
+147
+00:12:42,620 --> 00:12:47,460
+لأنه التنين نازلين فبيخلى الفرق نازلهذا ال spread
+
+148
+00:12:47,460 --> 00:12:51,340
+بيسموه طيب
+
+149
+00:12:51,340 --> 00:12:55,600
+فى
+
+150
+00:12:55,600 --> 00:13:01,800
+حد عنده ملاحظات تانية طيب نتطلع على ال .. ستة و
+
+151
+00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:09,160
+عشرين اربعة و ستة عشر اتطلعوا
+
+152
+00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:15,240
+على ال charts اكتر inflation ال risk اتطلعوا نتطلع
+
+153
+00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,930
+على ال riskهذا هو ال .. until هو average annual
+
+154
+00:13:18,930 --> 00:13:22,310
+return هذا الجانب هو return و هذا الجانب اسمه risk
+
+155
+00:13:22,310 --> 00:13:24,770
+لان هاي standard deviation of annual return
+
+156
+00:13:24,770 --> 00:13:30,610
+standard deviation of annual return نتطلع احنا على
+
+157
+00:13:30,610 --> 00:13:37,710
+ال risk بتاع ال inflation تدخم وين
+
+158
+00:13:37,710 --> 00:13:44,190
+كان اكتر فيه اكتر تدخم موجود من 26 ل 67 ليش طيب
+
+159
+00:13:44,190 --> 00:13:50,940
+تعرفوا حداشر why thisليش كان ال risk من سنة ال 26
+
+160
+00:13:50,940 --> 00:13:55,080
+ل 67 أعلى risk؟
+
+161
+00:13:55,080 --> 00:14:04,760
+في أهم من الحروب كانت في سنة 1929 شو كان لنا؟ big
+
+162
+00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,400
+recession because of the big recession the big
+
+163
+00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:11,260
+recession this is why the inflation rate is
+
+164
+00:14:11,260 --> 00:14:14,580
+greater than any other stages
+
+165
+00:14:15,630 --> 00:14:20,010
+because of the big recession الكساد الكبير في فترة
+
+166
+00:14:20,010 --> 00:14:28,230
+الكساد الكبير ودخلت اوروبا بحرب ضد الحلفة وطلعت
+
+167
+00:14:28,230 --> 00:14:31,490
+الحرب العالمية التانية فصار الكل يعمل يعمل سك عملة
+
+168
+00:14:31,490 --> 00:14:37,370
+بدون ما يكون مدعوم العملة من ال .. بالدهب وبالتالي
+
+169
+00:14:37,370 --> 00:14:41,390
+كان ال .. صار في inflation عالي كتير تضخم عالي
+
+170
+00:14:41,390 --> 00:14:45,150
+خلصنا أول ملاحظة تاني ملاحظة
+
+171
+00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:55,460
+الملاحظة التالتة اللى هنخرج فيها خلصنا أول ملاحظة
+
+172
+00:14:55,460 --> 00:15:01,400
+ناخد الملاحظة التالتة the third one the third one
+
+173
+00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:05,120
+if you look at this moderate inflation can offset
+
+174
+00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,840
+most of the nominal gains on low risk investments
+
+175
+00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:16,170
+ملاحظة تالتة انتبهوا للمكتوبها بال slidemoderate
+
+176
+00:15:16,170 --> 00:15:19,850
+inflation can offset most of the nominal gains on
+
+177
+00:15:19,850 --> 00:15:25,490
+low risk investments المشكلة وين؟ المشكلة أن ال
+
+178
+00:15:25,490 --> 00:15:31,550
+lower risk instruments hold the majority of the
+
+179
+00:15:31,550 --> 00:15:38,330
+systematic risk in other words بكلمات أخرى the
+
+180
+00:15:38,330 --> 00:15:40,590
+lower risk investments
+
+181
+00:15:42,110 --> 00:15:49,450
+is subject to the impact of the systematic risk or
+
+182
+00:15:49,450 --> 00:15:51,770
+is a subject of the impact of the inflation rate
+
+183
+00:15:51,770 --> 00:15:59,390
+than any other securities يعني الأدوات
+
+184
+00:15:59,390 --> 00:16:05,170
+المالية قليلة المخاطر بتأثر بأكتر من أي أداء
+
+185
+00:16:05,170 --> 00:16:09,700
+استثمارية أخرى بالتدخم خلينا نشوف المثال هذاشوفوا
+
+186
+00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:12,560
+ال treasury bills انقرن ال treasury bills مع ال
+
+187
+00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,840
+commercial paper احنا we sell commercial paper is
+
+188
+00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:21,620
+one of the money market securities my question is
+
+189
+00:16:21,620 --> 00:16:25,680
+which is hold higher risk او lower risk؟ مين بيحمل
+
+190
+00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,200
+lower risk? treasury bills or commercial paper؟
+
+191
+00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,920
+commercial paperإرادة my question like this yes
+
+192
+00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,560
+treasury bills who's holding lower risk treasury
+
+193
+00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:41,140
+bills okay so treasury bills holding lower risk
+
+194
+00:16:41,140 --> 00:16:53,080
+fine yes okay يعني أقل مخاطر أقل مخاطر ال treasury
+
+195
+00:16:53,080 --> 00:17:03,520
+bills بتحمل أقل مخاطرطبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+196
+00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:09,360
+طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+197
+00:17:09,360 --> 00:17:13,000
+طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+198
+00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:18,180
+طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+199
+00:17:24,630 --> 00:17:27,670
+the majority of the systematic risk انتبهوا لكلام
+
+200
+00:17:27,670 --> 00:17:30,970
+اللي انا بحكي فيه the majority of systematic risk
+
+201
+00:17:30,970 --> 00:17:36,770
+is inflation ايش يعني حكيته؟ the majority of
+
+202
+00:17:36,770 --> 00:17:44,070
+systematic risk is inflation غالبية risk ايش ال
+
+203
+00:17:44,070 --> 00:17:48,690
+systematic risk؟ مخاطر النظام هي تدخم يعني غالبية
+
+204
+00:17:48,690 --> 00:17:52,590
+المخاطر النظامية هي تدخم يعني لو احنا لاحظنا هنا
+
+205
+00:17:53,380 --> 00:17:57,900
+لأن هذا هو التضخم ال I مظبوط هذا كل هذا ال system
+
+206
+00:17:57,900 --> 00:18:01,660
+of interest كله هذا هذا الجزء الكبير منه تقريبا
+
+207
+00:18:01,660 --> 00:18:08,340
+جداش يعني ممكن اطلع مثلا ال لو قلنا 3.1 divided by
+
+208
+00:18:08,340 --> 00:18:14,420
+3.70 جداش تطلع معاكم او 71 المخاطر النظامية كلها 3
+
+209
+00:18:14,420 --> 00:18:20,340
+.71 كلها و 3.1 اللي هي ال inflation لوحدهاالغالبية
+
+210
+00:18:20,340 --> 00:18:28,220
+المخاطر النظامية هي inflation تقريبا فوق 8% تقريبا
+
+211
+00:18:28,220 --> 00:18:36,200
+38% طيب نطلع على ال commercial paper نطلع على ال
+
+212
+00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:41,600
+commercial paper ال commercial paper لنفترض ال
+
+213
+00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,360
+return hand 5%
+
+214
+00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,500
+ال systematic risk او نحكي ال inflation زي ما
+
+215
+00:18:51,500 --> 00:18:53,560
+بتكون ال systematic risk و ال inflation واحد ال
+
+216
+00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:58,980
+inflation هي 3.1 بدنا نشوف to what extent the
+
+217
+00:18:58,980 --> 00:19:01,780
+inflation influence on the commercial paper لأي
+
+218
+00:19:01,780 --> 00:19:05,200
+درجة بتأثر ال systematic .. ال inflation بيأثر على
+
+219
+00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:12,100
+ال commercial paper بنقول 3.1 divided by 5 اللي هو
+
+220
+00:19:12,100 --> 00:19:16,600
+ال 5 5 percent جداش تطلع في النسبة المقوية؟
+
+221
+00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:30,720
+كم؟ 62% خلّينا نقارن بين هذه وبين هذه هذه ال
+
+222
+00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:35,500
+treasury bills وهذه ال commercial paper تلاتة و
+
+223
+00:19:35,500 --> 00:19:37,960
+تمانية في المية معناه ان ال inflation أثرت على ال
+
+224
+00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,740
+treasury bills بتلاتة و تمانية في المية which is
+
+225
+00:19:40,740 --> 00:19:44,520
+higher أكتر طب نشوف ال commercial paper أداش أثرت
+
+226
+00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:48,560
+عليها أقل اذا هاي commercial paper وهذه ال
+
+227
+00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,940
+treasury bills انجرب ال stocks انجرب ايش ال stocks
+
+228
+00:19:53,770 --> 00:19:59,610
+الـ stocks مثلا نفترض أنها 9% عقل 9% نشوف .. نشوف
+
+229
+00:19:59,610 --> 00:20:03,810
+ال inflation rate هداش بتأثر بال stocks نفس .. نفس
+
+230
+00:20:03,810 --> 00:20:11,770
+الفكرة 3.1 divided by 9% عشان نشوف هداش بتأثر
+
+231
+00:20:11,770 --> 00:20:20,990
+عليها 34% 34% نقارن التلات نتائج ببعض look at this
+
+232
+00:20:20,990 --> 00:20:34,060
+83%والذي هو أعلى، الورق التجاربي مصطلح، الأسعار هي
+
+233
+00:20:34,060 --> 00:20:40,460
+فرصة الاستثمار أو فرصة استثمار على
+
+234
+00:20:42,990 --> 00:20:47,010
+on the rate of return is less than the impact of
+
+235
+00:20:47,010 --> 00:20:50,330
+treasury bills of the inflation on the treasury
+
+236
+00:20:50,330 --> 00:20:56,490
+bills يعني أثر التضخم على الأسهم أقل من أثر التضخم
+
+237
+00:20:56,490 --> 00:20:59,890
+على ال treasury bills هذه الملاحظة التالتة اللي هي
+
+238
+00:20:59,890 --> 00:21:08,770
+هان لو كتبناكوا إياها the influence of
+
+239
+00:21:08,770 --> 00:21:10,390
+inflation
+
+240
+00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,180
+أو بنجوسانيه systematic risk because inflation is
+
+241
+00:21:16,180 --> 00:21:23,780
+systematic risk on
+
+242
+00:21:23,780 --> 00:21:29,460
+the influence of inflation or systematic risk on
+
+243
+00:21:29,460 --> 00:21:36,580
+the treasury bills is
+
+244
+00:21:36,580 --> 00:21:45,710
+higher than any other securitiesany other
+
+245
+00:21:45,710 --> 00:21:50,630
+securities زي ما إنتوا إحنا شايفين يعني أثر ال
+
+246
+00:21:50,630 --> 00:21:55,450
+inflation على ال treasury bills أكثر من أثر ال
+
+247
+00:21:55,450 --> 00:22:00,310
+inflation على أي security أخرى خليني أجرب ال
+
+248
+00:22:00,310 --> 00:22:06,470
+derivatives مشتقات العقل
+
+249
+00:22:06,470 --> 00:22:10,910
+بتاع المشتقات نفترض مثلا 70%
+
+250
+00:22:14,020 --> 00:22:18,040
+نقسم هان three point one اللي هى ال inflation
+
+251
+00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:25,140
+divided by seventy كدهش بتطلع؟
+
+252
+00:22:25,140 --> 00:22:33,080
+three point one divided by seventy three
+
+253
+00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,060
+point one divided by seventy اربعمية و اربعمية
+
+254
+00:22:36,060 --> 00:22:42,380
+ماقول اربعمية يعني اربعمية او اربعميةلأ three
+
+255
+00:22:42,380 --> 00:22:45,280
+point one divided بس تلاتة فاصلة سبعة بتطلع zero
+
+256
+00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:50,600
+zero something أكام
+
+257
+00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:55,180
+zero عد؟ zero واحد أربعة و أربعين يعني بتأثر عليها
+
+258
+00:22:55,180 --> 00:22:59,860
+ب أربعة point أربعة percent أربعة فاصلة أربعة في
+
+259
+00:22:59,860 --> 00:23:04,200
+المية يعني بتأثر ال inflation على ال derivatives
+
+260
+00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:08,140
+بس ب أربعة فاصلة أربعة في المية so we conclude
+
+261
+00:23:08,140 --> 00:23:12,330
+thatthe treasury bills is more subject to
+
+262
+00:23:12,330 --> 00:23:16,150
+inflation than any other securities يعني أنا بحاول
+
+263
+00:23:16,150 --> 00:23:21,130
+بعطيكوا إياها بعدد لهجات و بعدد context بحيث أنه
+
+264
+00:23:21,130 --> 00:23:27,690
+you digest this يعني بحاول كذا طريقة أنه تصلكم
+
+265
+00:23:27,690 --> 00:23:31,110
+المعلومة okay
+
+266
+00:23:35,690 --> 00:23:40,430
+فإذا ال inflation rates بيأثر كتير على .. عنو
+
+267
+00:23:40,430 --> 00:23:44,150
+أكتر؟ ال lower securities ولا ال higher .. ال
+
+268
+00:23:44,150 --> 00:23:46,670
+lower risk securities ولا ال higher risk .. lower
+
+269
+00:23:46,670 --> 00:23:51,950
+.. lower risk لأن زي ما إحنا شايفين .. طب نشوف
+
+270
+00:23:51,950 --> 00:23:56,850
+ليش؟ why؟ إيش السبب؟ إحنا حكينا إن ال fee بيصير
+
+271
+00:23:56,850 --> 00:24:01,310
+هيك but why؟ why .. why the .. the lower
+
+272
+00:24:01,310 --> 00:24:04,770
+securitieswhile the lower .. the higher securities
+
+273
+00:24:04,770 --> 00:24:10,830
+or the higher risk securities fight
+
+274
+00:24:10,830 --> 00:24:15,450
+against inflation يعني تواجه الinflation because
+
+275
+00:24:15,450 --> 00:24:20,650
+investors .. أساس ال inflation مفرق واعرز okay طيب
+
+276
+00:24:20,650 --> 00:24:24,450
+الشغل اللي بتأثر كده هو ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+277
+00:24:24,450 --> 00:24:24,550
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+278
+00:24:24,550 --> 00:24:24,930
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+279
+00:24:24,930 --> 00:24:27,130
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+280
+00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,820
+يعني ان الinflation هو أسس المعنى المعدد هو system
+
+281
+00:24:32,820 --> 00:24:39,560
+of risk هو مخاطر نظامية عشان
+
+282
+00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:44,500
+هيك ال lower risk يتأثر فيها أكتر لسبب واضح ان ال
+
+283
+00:24:44,500 --> 00:24:47,680
+securities ال lower risk securities they don't
+
+284
+00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:53,120
+have a premium ماعندهم مش علامة عندهم مش ال ال ال
+
+285
+00:24:53,120 --> 00:24:59,820
+the R is small اه the real R is smallReal R إيش هي
+
+286
+00:24:59,820 --> 00:25:05,980
+ال real R؟ لو إجينا إحنا طلعوها أخدنا ال real R مش
+
+287
+00:25:05,980 --> 00:25:13,400
+هادي R ال real R هادي R بس لاحظولي على ال real R
+
+288
+00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:19,820
+سابتة لأ كيف يا بابا سابتة عادة ايوة ال real R
+
+289
+00:25:19,820 --> 00:25:24,580
+شوفي هذا هذا ال real R بعملك عليه هيك هو real R
+
+290
+00:25:27,100 --> 00:25:30,200
+اللي بعمل عليه cross هو real R ايش بتلاحظوا انتوا
+
+291
+00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:37,180
+بال real R؟ كل ما بيجيب بتزيد ايوة شوفوا ال real R
+
+292
+00:25:37,180 --> 00:25:40,840
+هان، قارنوا ال real R هان small r مش احنا قولنا ال
+
+293
+00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:46,300
+real R هي ال R .. هذه ال R كلها nominal minus ال I
+
+294
+00:25:46,300 --> 00:25:52,480
+فإيش بتلاحظوا ال R؟ شو بيصير فيها؟ ال increase
+
+295
+00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:52,860
+because
+
+296
+00:25:56,850 --> 00:26:02,030
+the real R has a positive function with the risk
+
+297
+00:26:02,030 --> 00:26:11,270
+هذا حطوها في بالكم R the small R هتطلعوا على ال
+
+298
+00:26:11,270 --> 00:26:15,190
+charts look at this chart look at this R شوفوا ال
+
+299
+00:26:15,190 --> 00:26:19,070
+R هذه شايفينها which is bigger this one or this
+
+300
+00:26:19,070 --> 00:26:27,560
+onethis one اذا حكينا هذه R نود هذي R1 R2 R3 R4
+
+301
+00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:36,120
+طلعوا على R1 ال R1 ايه؟ حكينا فيها ال real of
+
+302
+00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:39,940
+commercial paper ال real for the bonds ال real for
+
+303
+00:26:39,940 --> 00:26:43,520
+the stocks ال real for the derivatives طلعوا ال
+
+304
+00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,380
+real بتاعة ال commercial paper is greater than the
+
+305
+00:26:46,380 --> 00:26:52,050
+real of the treasury bills why؟because the higher
+
+306
+00:26:52,050 --> 00:26:57,610
+the risk the higher are كل ما بتزيد ال risk كل ما
+
+307
+00:26:57,610 --> 00:27:02,450
+ال R بتزيد طيب look at here again the higher the
+
+308
+00:27:02,450 --> 00:27:06,050
+risk ال risk مشي زاد so the higher the R
+
+309
+00:27:09,260 --> 00:27:15,400
+bigger and bigger as the risk become bigger and
+
+310
+00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,920
+bigger as a result of risk طيب خلينا إذا .. إذا
+
+311
+00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:27,100
+تلاتة ناخد أربعة .. أربعة saying as sigma .. sigma
+
+312
+00:27:27,100 --> 00:27:33,960
+is a measure of risk as sigma increase as
+
+313
+00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,140
+sigma increases R increases
+
+314
+00:27:40,380 --> 00:27:46,620
+Okay, so this is the relation زي number four
+
+315
+00:27:46,620 --> 00:27:51,740
+مراحظة رقم أربعة زي ما sigma بتزيد طبعا ايه sigma؟
+
+316
+00:27:51,740 --> 00:27:57,700
+sigma مخاطر هى هى دى sigma اه بيسموها risk امشوا
+
+317
+00:27:57,700 --> 00:28:01,000
+هيك يمين بتلاقيه ال R بتزيد because of systematic
+
+318
+00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,800
+because of the total risk increase لإن ال total
+
+319
+00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:10,600
+risk قاعد بزيدو كل ما زاد ال S كل ما زادت ال R ال
+
+320
+00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:16,660
+R صغيرة الملاحظة الرابعة as sigma increases ايش
+
+321
+00:28:16,660 --> 00:28:19,840
+sigma عارفين شو sigma ال standard deviation بتاعة
+
+322
+00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:24,160
+التو اللي حكينا فيها ليه هذه standard deviation
+
+323
+00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:29,340
+اللي هو standard deviation okay as sigma increases
+
+324
+00:28:29,340 --> 00:28:36,810
+كل ما sigma زادت كل ما R increasesكل ما R .. ال
+
+325
+00:28:36,810 --> 00:28:42,410
+real rate of return كل ما كان زائد زي ما انتوا
+
+326
+00:28:42,410 --> 00:28:46,010
+شايفين بال chart هو على حال ال chart يعني لو انا
+
+327
+00:28:46,010 --> 00:28:51,010
+هيك طلعت .. طلعت .. اه
+
+328
+00:28:51,010 --> 00:28:56,450
+.. كيف؟ ال R ال real دايما بتكون تربيه معاها اللي
+
+329
+00:28:56,450 --> 00:29:00,130
+هي .. معاها بال .. معاها بال .. بال total risk
+
+330
+00:29:00,130 --> 00:29:04,330
+خدوا بالك بال total risk okay طيب خلصنا الملاحظات
+
+331
+00:29:04,330 --> 00:29:04,570
+هذه
+
+332
+00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,180
+Okay وهي هم a dollar invested in treasury bills
+
+333
+00:29:19,180 --> 00:29:21,440
+from nineteen twenty six two thousand grow to
+
+334
+00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:26,300
+twenty dollar but with a real value only شوفوا رغم
+
+335
+00:29:26,300 --> 00:29:30,160
+انه لو احنا استثمرنا دولار واحد شوفوا لو احنا
+
+336
+00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:35,220
+استثمرنا دولار واحد في سنة الستة وعشرين لسنة الفين
+
+337
+00:29:35,220 --> 00:29:39,170
+وتسعة هنستفيد عشرين دولارلكن استفادتنا الحقيقية
+
+338
+00:29:39,170 --> 00:29:44,890
+كم؟ 1.69$ نرجع ال table لو احنا استثمرنا دولار
+
+339
+00:29:44,890 --> 00:29:48,410
+واحد في ال treasury bills بسنة ستة وعشرين الفين
+
+340
+00:29:48,410 --> 00:29:53,670
+وتسعة استفادتنا الحقيقية just point seventy طلع
+
+341
+00:29:53,670 --> 00:29:58,090
+لأن في عندى inflation عالي كتير لو احنا استثمرنا
+
+342
+00:29:58,090 --> 00:30:01,550
+من التمانية وستين للألفين وتسعة دولار واحد تمانية
+
+343
+00:30:01,550 --> 00:30:05,090
+وستين استفادتنا بس one point seventeenالحففية ال
+
+344
+00:30:05,090 --> 00:30:10,130
+real لو احنا استثمرنا من ال 26 لل 67 يعني استثمرنا
+
+345
+00:30:10,130 --> 00:30:15,250
+يعني تلاتين سنة تقريبا لو استثمرنا دول لو احنا لسا
+
+346
+00:30:15,250 --> 00:30:17,290
+في just point twenty four percent
+
+347
+00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,960
+Okay بأكد الكلام لو احنا استثمرنا دولار واحد بال
+
+348
+00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,160
+treasury bills من ستة و عشرين ل الفين و دسعة
+
+349
+00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,560
+هنستفيد عشرين دولار بقى ال reality احنا مستفدناش
+
+350
+00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,780
+لعشرين دولار استفدنا just طب ليش الفرق قد صار
+
+351
+00:30:32,780 --> 00:30:37,480
+because of what because of inflation لأنه ال
+
+352
+00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,560
+inflation هو عمل الكلام هذا طبعا بنات بتعرفوش
+
+353
+00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:46,140
+معناه inflation تدخم okay okay طيب
+
+354
+00:30:49,580 --> 00:30:59,840
+طب كيف أنا بدي أعرف العلاقة بين الinflation و
+
+355
+00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:04,800
+بين ال R بقيس أنا ال correlation سمعتوا في شغل
+
+356
+00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:09,320
+اسمها ال correlation الارتباط بقيس الارتباط في
+
+357
+00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,720
+فترة من الفترات كان الارتباط إيجابي بين
+
+358
+00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,980
+الinflation و between real rate of return وفترات
+
+359
+00:31:14,980 --> 00:31:20,340
+أخرى صار سلبي خلّيني نشوفnegative correlation
+
+360
+00:31:20,340 --> 00:31:24,460
+between real rates and inflation rates means that
+
+361
+00:31:24,460 --> 00:31:27,940
+nominal rate responds less than 1.1 to changes in
+
+362
+00:31:27,940 --> 00:31:31,740
+the expected inflation هذه هنشرحها، طلعواها،
+
+363
+00:31:31,740 --> 00:31:34,360
+طلعواها على ال chart، بدنا نحكي عن ال correlation
+
+364
+00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:40,580
+ال correlation اللي هو الارتباط الارتباط بين ال
+
+365
+00:31:40,580 --> 00:31:45,100
+real rate of return و الinflation و التضخم هو
+
+366
+00:31:45,100 --> 00:31:50,310
+ارتباط سلبي، negativeارتباط سلبي negative okay
+
+367
+00:31:50,310 --> 00:31:56,490
+لأنهم بيمشوا عكس بعض ننتبه هان نرجع كيف سلبي كل ما
+
+368
+00:31:56,490 --> 00:32:02,610
+زودنا ال inflation ال I كل ما ال R بتنزل فهذا ايش
+
+369
+00:32:02,610 --> 00:32:06,590
+يسموه correlation معله negative okay negative كيف
+
+370
+00:32:06,590 --> 00:32:09,230
+نقيسه بال Excel طبعا مش مطلوب منكوا تقيسوه بال
+
+371
+00:32:09,230 --> 00:32:13,530
+Excel بس كيف نقيسه نجيب ال I و نجيب ال R real rate
+
+372
+00:32:13,530 --> 00:32:18,130
+of return و بنعمل يسوي correlationالارتباط بيطلع
+
+373
+00:32:18,130 --> 00:32:21,090
+عندنا الارتباط وبعدين بيطلع عندنا الرسمة هذه لو
+
+374
+00:32:21,090 --> 00:32:27,750
+حبنا احنا نرسمها اتطلعوا ال correlation spend one
+
+375
+00:32:27,750 --> 00:32:32,950
+minute to look at this chart يعني فاكروا ده فيخة
+
+376
+00:32:32,950 --> 00:32:37,290
+واحدة عشان تفكروا بهال chart and what you observe
+
+377
+00:32:37,290 --> 00:32:46,610
+on this chart okay يالا بدنا نشوف answer منكميلا
+
+378
+00:32:46,610 --> 00:32:54,510
+answer me in nineteen twenty six we have .. we
+
+379
+00:32:54,510 --> 00:32:57,890
+haven't inflation we .. we haven't inflation؟ yes
+
+380
+00:32:57,890 --> 00:33:02,650
+we have inflation or we .. يعني لك ساعات okay من
+
+381
+00:33:02,650 --> 00:33:05,670
+ستة و عشرين لستة و تلاتين خلي بالك اول اشي ان ال
+
+382
+00:33:05,670 --> 00:33:09,370
+treasury treasury bill rates اللي هو ال black one
+
+383
+00:33:09,370 --> 00:33:13,250
+و ال inflation هو ال blue one okay تمام ايش كان ..
+
+384
+00:33:13,250 --> 00:33:15,570
+شو بطلع اصلا؟ كانت ستة و عشرين لستة و تلاتين
+
+385
+00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:20,260
+inflation okay تضخم اه و بعدين .. فى نفس اللحظة
+
+386
+00:33:20,260 --> 00:33:23,240
+إيش كان فى ال treasury bills طبعا كانت معدلاتها
+
+387
+00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,840
+تنزل شو اللي بنزل ال inflation ال treasury bills
+
+388
+00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,820
+كانت بالأول عالية و بعدين نزلت سنة مع المعدل سبعت
+
+389
+00:33:30,820 --> 00:33:34,500
+طيب و بعدين بدأت تطلع ال treasury bills و ال
+
+390
+00:33:34,500 --> 00:33:38,820
+inflation بدأت تطلع okay خليني .. okay كلامك فيه
+
+391
+00:33:38,820 --> 00:33:44,240
+منه صح نرادها هو عمال كانت بياكل الشراباتأه في هنا
+
+392
+00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:48,940
+negative correlation طلع و هان look at this لو
+
+393
+00:33:48,940 --> 00:33:54,620
+احنا كنا في النقطة هذه بس just observe on this لو
+
+394
+00:33:54,620 --> 00:33:58,040
+احنا أخدنا النقطة هذه هيك نقطة ملاحظ انه ال
+
+395
+00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:02,640
+treasury bills increase لكن الinflation decrease
+
+396
+00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:08,720
+فال correlation ايش كان negative through the time
+
+397
+00:34:08,720 --> 00:34:12,060
+مع الزمن ال correlation شو بيصير فيه بيصير
+
+398
+00:34:12,060 --> 00:34:17,170
+positiveلحظة يعني ال treasury bills ال inflation
+
+399
+00:34:17,170 --> 00:34:24,190
+نزل ال treasury bills نزلت معاها okay so دي اذا
+
+400
+00:34:24,190 --> 00:34:29,550
+احنا بنحكي باللحظة متى اتغيرت التوجه؟ قبل ال 68
+
+401
+00:34:29,550 --> 00:34:34,130
+شوفوا بال .. قبل ال 68 او قبل ال 66 كان في
+
+402
+00:34:34,130 --> 00:34:38,590
+negative correlation و بعدين صار positive يعني
+
+403
+00:34:38,590 --> 00:34:42,050
+صارت ال inflation تمشي بالزق .. يعني يبدو كان اول
+
+404
+00:34:42,050 --> 00:34:46,030
+زمان انه ال .. ال financial الواقع ال .. مافيش
+
+405
+00:34:46,030 --> 00:34:51,270
+نظام مالي يعني ال inflation مش هي ال .. ال .. the
+
+406
+00:34:51,270 --> 00:34:57,290
+main .. the main systematic riskبعد هيك صارت ان ال
+
+407
+00:34:57,290 --> 00:35:00,550
+treasury bills طلعوا .. طلعوا النقطة هذه في ال 76
+
+408
+00:35:00,550 --> 00:35:08,190
+ال .. ال inflation زادت و ال treasury bills زادت
+
+409
+00:35:08,190 --> 00:35:11,730
+ال treasury bills زادت و ال inflation زادت راحوا
+
+410
+00:35:11,730 --> 00:35:16,150
+نزلوا مع بعض زي ما انتوا شايفين نزلوا مع بعض طلعوا
+
+411
+00:35:16,150 --> 00:35:20,830
+مع بعضنزلوا مع بعض طلعوا مع بعض لكن لو احنا طلعنا
+
+412
+00:35:20,830 --> 00:35:26,490
+back to before 1968 لو احنا طلعنا شوفوا ال
+
+413
+00:35:26,490 --> 00:35:31,530
+inflation زادت هذه انخفضت او ثابتة هان مثلا شوفوا
+
+414
+00:35:31,530 --> 00:35:35,390
+النقطة هذه زادت هذه انخفضت ف this is important
+
+415
+00:35:35,390 --> 00:35:39,050
+make
+
+416
+00:35:39,050 --> 00:35:42,050
+.. make the correlation positive بيخلي ال .. ال
+
+417
+00:35:42,050 --> 00:35:42,970
+correlation positive
+
+418
+00:35:45,540 --> 00:35:48,240
+الأدوات المالية بالظبط كانت ال inflation مش هي
+
+419
+00:35:48,240 --> 00:35:54,080
+العامل الرئيسي لكن صارت ال .. طيب اذا هذا اللي
+
+420
+00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:59,920
+احنا بدي احكي فيه اليوم و في حد عندى سؤال؟
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/HsbDwQMqHJ0_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/HsbDwQMqHJ0_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9f96294004496c8434e82010b5312042073c0d8c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/HsbDwQMqHJ0_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1844 @@
+1
+00:00:20,810 --> 00:00:24,390
+يلا بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة الفاتت كنا نحكي
+
+2
+00:00:24,390 --> 00:00:27,450
+عن ال utility function يعني ال utility function
+
+3
+00:00:27,450 --> 00:00:30,550
+جداش ال investors بيستفيدوا من الاستثمارات سبعتهم
+
+4
+00:00:30,550 --> 00:00:37,580
+ال models الفاتت اللي هي sharpكانت تركز على
+
+5
+00:00:37,580 --> 00:00:42,740
+العلاقة بين ال return و ال risk تحطهم مع بعض بس ال
+
+6
+00:00:42,740 --> 00:00:46,420
+model تبع ال utility هو أخد بعين الاعتبار the risk
+
+7
+00:00:46,420 --> 00:00:49,960
+and return and the investors preferences أخد بعين
+
+8
+00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,120
+الاعتبار ال investors preferences يعني احنا ها لو
+
+9
+00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,780
+نيجي ال U اللي هو ال utility is equal to expected
+
+10
+00:00:56,780 --> 00:01:03,360
+rate of return العائد minus half of A A هنا هي ال
+
+11
+00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:10,070
+ايش ال risk aversiontimes sigma square مضروبة في
+
+12
+00:01:10,070 --> 00:01:14,310
+ال sigma square طبعا هذا sigma square ال sigma
+
+13
+00:01:14,310 --> 00:01:18,990
+square هنا هي ال risk ال A اللي هو ال risk
+
+14
+00:01:18,990 --> 00:01:25,090
+aversion okay E is expected rate of return and E
+
+15
+00:01:25,090 --> 00:01:28,750
+utility يعني بالأخير أنه احنا المنفعة بتساوي
+
+16
+00:01:28,750 --> 00:01:34,870
+بالعربي يعني الإيرادات نقص المخاطرطب المخاطر
+
+17
+00:01:34,870 --> 00:01:42,210
+مضروبة في تفضيل المخاطر تفضيل المخاطر okay هذا ال
+
+18
+00:01:42,210 --> 00:01:50,070
+utility functions طبقنا
+
+19
+00:01:50,070 --> 00:01:53,150
+المعادلة طبعا ان انتوا في البيت بترجعوا بتعيدوا
+
+20
+00:01:53,150 --> 00:01:57,250
+تطبيقها اخدنا بالاعتبار ان ال investor risk
+
+21
+00:01:57,250 --> 00:02:02,640
+aversion 2أو تلاتة او نص او اربع او خمسة طبعا
+
+22
+00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:08,420
+اتنين بيكون بيفضل المخاطر خمسة تفضيل المخاطر اقل
+
+23
+00:02:08,420 --> 00:02:13,280
+okay العائد ال E of R زي ما انتوا شايفين هو سبعة
+
+24
+00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:18,740
+في المية ناقص النص عارفينها والاتنين هي التنين ال
+
+25
+00:02:18,740 --> 00:02:24,220
+A و ال sigma تربي عينية ل zero fiveلاحظنا ان كل ما
+
+26
+00:02:24,220 --> 00:02:29,340
+بتنخفض ال a كل ما بيزيد العقد طلعوا هان كل ما احنا
+
+27
+00:02:29,340 --> 00:02:33,580
+بنخفض ال a العقد بيزيد يعني كل ما الناس بت .. بتحب
+
+28
+00:02:33,580 --> 00:02:37,940
+المخاطر اكتر كل ما العقد بيزيد لو طلعنا هان
+
+29
+00:02:37,940 --> 00:02:41,440
+بتلاحظوا في ال .. في المنطقة هذه يعني اختارنا 13%
+
+30
+00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:46,860
+ال expected rate of returnو minus half تنين اللى
+
+31
+00:02:46,860 --> 00:02:51,360
+هو ال risk preference او risk aversion ضرب اللى هو
+
+32
+00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:56,240
+عشرين فلمية squared بيطلع عندنا تسعة فلمية فلاحظوا
+
+33
+00:02:56,240 --> 00:03:00,400
+احنا لما كان تنين كان العائد ال expected rate of
+
+34
+00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:04,410
+return هو تسعة فلميةلما صار خمسة صار expected
+
+35
+00:03:04,410 --> 00:03:07,670
+return تلاتة في المية مع الكلام الفرق بين خمسة و
+
+36
+00:03:07,670 --> 00:03:10,110
+بين اتنين تقريبا تلات أبعاف شوفوا تلاتة في المية
+
+37
+00:03:10,110 --> 00:03:12,530
+تسعة في المية تقريبا لو ضربنا تلاتة في المية في
+
+38
+00:03:12,530 --> 00:03:16,610
+تلاتة بتطلع تسعة في المية فكل ما احنا بنخفض ال
+
+39
+00:03:16,610 --> 00:03:24,530
+investor risk aversion كل ما ال utility بتزيد طيب
+
+40
+00:03:24,530 --> 00:03:29,350
+هذا ايش بفيدنا الكلام بفيدنا الكلام انه احنا نعمل
+
+41
+00:03:29,350 --> 00:03:34,870
+portfoliosنعمل محافظ استثماري ايش معناه محافظ
+
+42
+00:03:34,870 --> 00:03:39,770
+استثماري Portfolios لو احنا خدنا investor عنده ألف
+
+43
+00:03:39,770 --> 00:03:45,710
+دولار one thousand dollar this
+
+44
+00:03:45,710 --> 00:03:48,730
+investor has option to invest in a particular
+
+45
+00:03:48,730 --> 00:03:51,250
+investor in investments يعني هذا المستثمر عنده
+
+46
+00:03:51,250 --> 00:03:56,390
+إمكانية يستثمرهم في individual investments في أيه؟
+
+47
+00:03:56,390 --> 00:03:59,650
+خدوا
+
+48
+00:03:59,650 --> 00:04:00,070
+معناها
+
+49
+00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,600
+but the problem of this investor when he or she
+
+50
+00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:11,060
+invest in A he will hold 100% of the risk of A
+
+51
+00:04:11,060 --> 00:04:14,920
+يعني إذا بيستثمر في A هيتحمل مخاطر 100% تبعات A
+
+52
+00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:20,000
+from the portfolio management perspective من وجهة
+
+53
+00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,580
+نظر portfolio management المحافظ if you have 1000$
+
+54
+00:04:23,580 --> 00:04:28,260
+you can invest them in many securities يعني ممكن
+
+55
+00:04:28,260 --> 00:04:33,800
+إحنا نستثمرهم في A في B في C and DSo in this case
+
+56
+00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:40,060
+في هذه الحالة investing one thousand dollar in
+
+57
+00:04:40,060 --> 00:04:45,560
+four different securities aims to increase return
+
+58
+00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:52,400
+الهدف منها increase return and
+
+59
+00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,760
+decrease risk
+
+60
+00:05:00,150 --> 00:05:02,950
+يعني هدف المحافظة الاستثمارية the main importance
+
+61
+00:05:02,950 --> 00:05:06,450
+or the main objective of managing the portfolios
+
+62
+00:05:06,450 --> 00:05:11,650
+is to increase return and to decrease risk let's
+
+63
+00:05:11,650 --> 00:05:18,130
+see how it works if you have portfolio A and B and
+
+64
+00:05:18,130 --> 00:05:21,790
+portfolio A dominates portfolio B يعني إيش معناه
+
+65
+00:05:21,790 --> 00:05:27,440
+dominates؟ dominates يعني أفضل أو أحسن من Bإذا
+
+66
+00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:36,080
+قيمة إعادة A أكتر من قيمة إعادة B، وإذا قيمة A
+
+67
+00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:42,520
+أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا
+
+68
+00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,000
+قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B،
+
+69
+00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:49,600
+وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من
+
+70
+00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:49,620
+قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A
+
+71
+00:05:49,620 --> 00:05:49,840
+أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا
+
+72
+00:05:49,840 --> 00:05:51,540
+قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B،
+
+73
+00:05:51,540 --> 00:05:58,550
+وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قالسبب يكون وجود المحافظة
+
+74
+00:05:58,550 --> 00:06:05,950
+الاستثمارية look at here look at this one we have
+
+75
+00:06:05,950 --> 00:06:18,850
+some stocks A,B,C,D,E and F بنعمل محافظة استثمارية
+
+76
+00:06:18,850 --> 00:06:21,350
+مثلا محافظة استثمارية we select B
+
+77
+00:06:27,140 --> 00:06:35,720
+D and E اخترناهم so what is the rate of return of
+
+78
+00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:39,940
+them ال
+
+79
+00:06:39,940 --> 00:06:45,140
+rate of return تبعهم for instance انه يكون هذا ال
+
+80
+00:06:45,140 --> 00:06:48,440
+rate
+
+81
+00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,380
+of return يعني لو احنا جمعناهم مع بعض هيكون ال
+
+82
+00:06:51,380 --> 00:06:56,300
+rate of return like thisهذا هو عدد الترجمة لأن عدد
+
+83
+00:06:56,300 --> 00:07:05,260
+الترجمة ر بي هو عدد الوزن بي و عدد الوزن دي و عدد
+
+84
+00:07:05,260 --> 00:07:12,360
+الوزن إيه الوزن؟
+
+85
+00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:19,910
+لكن سيجما بي ليس عادل، كون حذراis not equal to the
+
+86
+00:07:19,910 --> 00:07:28,790
+w sigma a plus w sigma b plus w sigma c or cd here
+
+87
+00:07:28,790 --> 00:07:32,990
+this is right for the rate of return but it is not
+
+88
+00:07:32,990 --> 00:07:38,270
+right for the sigma for the risk اذا احنا شو صار
+
+89
+00:07:38,270 --> 00:07:42,190
+في العائد العائد زاد okay لما احنا بنعمل formula
+
+90
+00:07:42,190 --> 00:07:46,890
+لل portfolio في نفس الوقتلو احنا بدنا نستثمر في
+
+91
+00:07:46,890 --> 00:07:54,150
+any individual security عند هذا العائد عند هذه
+
+92
+00:07:54,150 --> 00:07:56,630
+النقطة من المخاطر المفروض نحصل على هذا العائد
+
+93
+00:07:56,630 --> 00:08:06,190
+مفروض بس احنا حصلنا على عائد أعلى okay طيب عند هذا
+
+94
+00:08:06,190 --> 00:08:12,250
+العائد المفروض يكون المخاطر تبعتي هيها المفروض هذه
+
+95
+00:08:12,250 --> 00:08:17,900
+المخاطر صح لسيادةفاحنا practically we reduce the
+
+96
+00:08:17,900 --> 00:08:22,780
+sigma, we reduce the risk and we increase the rate
+
+97
+00:08:22,780 --> 00:08:29,860
+of return okay I
+
+98
+00:08:29,860 --> 00:08:34,080
+said in the previous meeting when we talk about
+
+99
+00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,940
+utility
+
+100
+00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:42,140
+Listen here, utility is equal to the expected rate
+
+101
+00:08:42,140 --> 00:08:50,720
+of return minus half a sigma squared okay look at
+
+102
+00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:54,540
+here the expected return is we can estimate this
+
+103
+00:08:54,540 --> 00:08:57,200
+we can estimate the expected rate of return يعني
+
+104
+00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:01,220
+نقدر احنا نتوقع by using arithmetic and by using
+
+105
+00:09:01,220 --> 00:09:06,060
+geometric okayfor half we know what it means half
+
+106
+00:09:06,060 --> 00:09:09,880
+ليش هي بالنص because if I said what is the
+
+107
+00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,900
+difference the space difference between me and and
+
+108
+00:09:13,900 --> 00:09:17,320
+her just half of the space يعني إيش الفرق بين
+
+109
+00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:21,820
+المسافة بينه وبينها يكون نص المسافة okay so it is
+
+110
+00:09:21,820 --> 00:09:27,020
+half a is the risk preferences or risk aversion
+
+111
+00:09:27,020 --> 00:09:33,580
+إيش risk aversionقدرش الناس بتتجنب المخاطر خليني
+
+112
+00:09:33,580 --> 00:09:39,260
+أعطيكوا مثال risk aversion هذا بقسوه يعني بقدر انا
+
+113
+00:09:39,260 --> 00:09:43,520
+اعطيكوا questionnaire ا give you questionnaire and
+
+114
+00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,320
+based on this questionnaire I can determine what
+
+115
+00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,440
+is the level of A بقدر انا احدد ال level of A
+
+116
+00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:54,260
+تبعتكم يعني اعطيكوا مثال بسيط لو احنا قلنالكم انكم
+
+117
+00:09:54,260 --> 00:09:57,620
+تروحوا على مطعم okay و هذا المطعم is the first
+
+118
+00:09:57,620 --> 00:10:01,570
+time to open in Gazaو and this .. this restaurant
+
+119
+00:10:01,570 --> 00:10:07,090
+serve .. provide or service the chinese foods
+
+120
+00:10:07,090 --> 00:10:12,430
+بيقدم أيش؟ أكل صيني أكل صيني okay so you come in
+
+121
+00:10:12,430 --> 00:10:17,890
+and there is a menu وعطونا ال menu in this menu
+
+122
+00:10:17,890 --> 00:10:21,610
+because you are the first time most of the dishes
+
+123
+00:10:21,610 --> 00:10:27,700
+are chinese dishes أغلب ال dishes أيش؟suddenly
+
+124
+00:10:27,700 --> 00:10:33,460
+your eyes come to the .. to some tradition dishes
+
+125
+00:10:33,460 --> 00:10:38,560
+يعني من ال foods you know يعني مثلا في كان عندكم
+
+126
+00:10:38,560 --> 00:10:42,900
+السوشي سمعتوا بالسوشي؟ مثلا كان فيه سوشي كان فيه
+
+127
+00:10:42,900 --> 00:10:49,920
+ال calamar كان فيه كذا وفيه محطوم فلافل وحمص ايش
+
+128
+00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:55,370
+ممكن تختاروا؟مين ممكن؟ اغلب الناس فتختار .. فإذا
+
+129
+00:10:55,370 --> 00:10:58,810
+اختارتوا ال food اللي انتوا هتعرفوه فبتكون ال a
+
+130
+00:10:58,810 --> 00:11:03,050
+تبعاتكم عالية كتير يعني انه انتوا بتتجنبوا المخاطر
+
+131
+00:11:03,050 --> 00:11:09,290
+طبعا ف بيصمموا questionnaire طيب هلأ كمان مثال
+
+132
+00:11:09,290 --> 00:11:13,770
+تشوفوا كمان مثال في نفس المطعم طبعا هذا بيعملوله
+
+133
+00:11:13,770 --> 00:11:19,620
+design عشان يشوفوا ال investors ايش ال a تبعاتهمفي
+
+134
+00:11:19,620 --> 00:11:23,600
+ال designs you are invited to the workshop and you
+
+135
+00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,940
+don't know anyone in the workshop تعرفيش أي واحد
+
+136
+00:11:26,940 --> 00:11:31,960
+بال workshop and in each table you should select
+
+137
+00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:37,680
+four people يعني لازم تختاروا أربع أشخاص تمام؟
+
+138
+00:11:37,680 --> 00:11:42,440
+الأربع أشخاص some names okay some names you know
+
+139
+00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:47,100
+the namesand these names are tradition to you يعني
+
+140
+00:11:47,100 --> 00:11:53,140
+مثلا في عندي واحد اسمه أحمد و واحد اسمه ويليام و
+
+141
+00:11:53,140 --> 00:11:58,760
+واحد اسمه شارب و واحد اسمه ساوسان او اسمها ساوسان
+
+142
+00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:10,130
+و واحد اسمه مثلا ميOkay هذه الخمس أسماء هقولك
+
+143
+00:12:10,130 --> 00:12:20,510
+اختاروا اختاروا على ال table تبعتكم شخصيا الأغلب
+
+144
+00:12:20,510 --> 00:12:26,090
+هيختار أحمد لأنه هيعتبر ان هو from the middle east
+
+145
+00:12:26,090 --> 00:12:29,670
+طبعا you don't know them مابتعرفوش عنهم فتختاروا
+
+146
+00:12:29,670 --> 00:12:34,010
+أحمد واحتمال كتير هتختاروا Sawsam لأنه is Arabic
+
+147
+00:12:34,010 --> 00:12:38,800
+names tradition namesفي بعض الناس is if you want
+
+148
+00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:42,880
+to take risk يعني في ناس هيختاروا أحمد و ساوسة
+
+149
+00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:48,660
+نماي okay في ناس ممكن يختاروا وليام و شارب إذا
+
+150
+00:12:48,660 --> 00:12:52,560
+اختارنا وليام و شارب بيكون أنتوا روحتوا على ال
+
+151
+00:12:52,560 --> 00:12:55,820
+risk العاليلأنه بتكون تفكروا طب أنا كيف هحكي
+
+152
+00:12:55,820 --> 00:12:59,580
+معاهم؟ كيف هتكلم معاهم؟ إيهش الكلاب وش؟ طب و يمكن
+
+153
+00:12:59,580 --> 00:13:03,720
+هم بغير عننا و إش؟ لكن some people they try to try
+
+154
+00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,960
+risk بعض الناس بدهم يحاولوا ياخدوا ال risk إذا هاي
+
+155
+00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,360
+الطريقة بيسموها بال questionnaire معتوط عندكم في
+
+156
+00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:14,000
+الكتاب some examples of this questionnaire في
+
+157
+00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,600
+الكتاب موجود عندكم مثال على ال questionnaire so
+
+158
+00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:20,360
+using questionnaires other instrument in
+
+159
+00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:24,370
+estimating risk is a versionobserves individuals
+
+160
+00:13:24,370 --> 00:13:29,850
+decisions when confronted with risk يعني بقدره كده
+
+161
+00:13:29,850 --> 00:13:33,970
+المخاطر اللي ممكن يواجهوها الناس لما يواجهوا ..
+
+162
+00:13:33,970 --> 00:13:38,010
+كده .. لما يواجهوا المخاطر يا زي ما تشوفوهم مثلا
+
+163
+00:13:38,010 --> 00:13:40,890
+في برنامج فرنسي كنت أحضره يحطوا الولاد الصغار في
+
+164
+00:13:40,890 --> 00:13:45,490
+مكان و يحطوهم under risk و يشوفوا how these kids
+
+165
+00:13:45,490 --> 00:13:49,810
+are behaving كيف هم بتصرفوايعني مثلا انه switch
+
+166
+00:13:49,810 --> 00:13:54,490
+the light يطفو الضوء و ممكن يكون في some shadows
+
+167
+00:13:54,490 --> 00:13:58,770
+moving بعض ال kids get scared ممكن يخافوا other
+
+168
+00:13:58,770 --> 00:14:02,290
+kids coming and to play with the shadows بعض
+
+169
+00:14:02,290 --> 00:14:05,010
+الأطفال هيروح يلعبوا معاهم وبالتالي this is
+
+170
+00:14:05,010 --> 00:14:11,610
+indication for the risk aversion الولاد الصغار
+
+171
+00:14:11,610 --> 00:14:14,150
+they squeeze themselves in the corner الولاد
+
+172
+00:14:14,150 --> 00:14:17,690
+الصغار اللي هم حطوا حالهم في ال .. هده دولبجنب
+
+173
+00:14:17,690 --> 00:14:20,530
+المخاطر والولاد اللي راحوا هجموا وراحوا playing
+
+174
+00:14:20,530 --> 00:14:24,550
+with the shadows هدول بيكون عندهم risk preferences
+
+175
+00:14:25,740 --> 00:14:30,420
+يعني بيحطوهم في بيئة خطر، يعني مثلا في videos،
+
+176
+00:14:30,420 --> 00:14:32,340
+تطلع على ال videos، keep .. concentrate in the
+
+177
+00:14:32,340 --> 00:14:35,980
+videos، something jumping، ف if you make your back
+
+178
+00:14:35,980 --> 00:14:38,740
+like this، get scared، مع الكلام فيه شوية مخاطر
+
+179
+00:14:38,740 --> 00:14:41,180
+عندك، some people they don't care، ممكن just
+
+180
+00:14:41,180 --> 00:14:44,780
+everything jumping and they don't .. okay؟ So this
+
+181
+00:14:44,780 --> 00:14:48,800
+is the .. some examples of the .. و ال investment
+
+182
+00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:51,920
+banks they use these facilitiesبنوك الاستثمار
+
+183
+00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:54,220
+بيستخدموا هاي ال facilities فى عندهم special rooms
+
+184
+00:14:54,220 --> 00:14:57,880
+فى عندهم computer system و بيجلس الواحد and they
+
+185
+00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:01,100
+.. they have many tools لإن هم بيعملوا أكتر من
+
+186
+00:15:01,100 --> 00:15:07,000
+system يعني أنا مرة أمام
+
+187
+00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:12,860
+شاشة في .. في أحد البنوك and some dots shows يعني
+
+188
+00:15:12,860 --> 00:15:16,160
+بتيجي مرة ال dots بتظهر فماعليك اللى من حد ما تظهر
+
+189
+00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:20,400
+بتعمل clickفاهمتوا كيف؟ فبيجي قوة الملاحظة عند
+
+190
+00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:26,820
+الواحد و something moving مثلا بيجي أسد بيطلع و
+
+191
+00:15:26,820 --> 00:15:32,240
+حمامة بيطلع فهو بيقولك صيد اللي أنت بدك إياه ففينا
+
+192
+00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:34,960
+إذا بيركزوا على الأسد بيكون عندهم ال risk
+
+193
+00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,740
+preferences عالي إذا حد بيركز مثلا على الأطير
+
+194
+00:15:38,740 --> 00:15:41,620
+البسيط بيكون ال risk preferences تبعته عاش منخفضة
+
+195
+00:15:41,620 --> 00:15:45,000
+so it depends فهذه facilities كتير متوفرة في بنوك
+
+196
+00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:49,690
+الاستثمار عشان يتأكدوا من ال إيه تبعتناobserve how
+
+197
+00:15:49,690 --> 00:15:53,950
+much people are willing to pay to avoid risk في
+
+198
+00:15:53,950 --> 00:15:57,230
+ناس لما يواجهوا مخاطر بدهم يتخلصوا من المخاطر يعني
+
+199
+00:15:57,230 --> 00:16:01,350
+مثلا اعطيكم مثال بسيط لو واحد ساكن و اجاله جار
+
+200
+00:16:01,350 --> 00:16:07,970
+مزعج هذا الساكن ممكن امامه حاليا يقولك okay don't
+
+201
+00:16:07,970 --> 00:16:13,170
+worry about this مش مهم فهذا is taking risk يقولك
+
+202
+00:16:13,170 --> 00:16:15,670
+يعني عند .. يعني عند ما يبدو يعمل مشكلة ما احنا
+
+203
+00:16:15,670 --> 00:16:21,040
+بنعمله مشكلة كمانوقت تاني بيشتغل مشاكل الزنا مطير
+
+204
+00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:26,760
+هك، قال مش بدي فعل الشغله ببيع البنز، فهو دفع عشان
+
+205
+00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:31,490
+إيش تخلص من المخاطرOkay ف observe how much people
+
+206
+00:16:31,490 --> 00:16:34,510
+are willing to pay to avoid risk يعني في ناس ما
+
+207
+00:16:34,510 --> 00:16:37,490
+بيقدروش يتحملوا مخاطر وبالتالي هم بيدفعوا عساسي ان
+
+208
+00:16:37,490 --> 00:16:40,270
+هم يتخلصوا من المخاطر فبنشوف ال observe لل people
+
+209
+00:16:40,270 --> 00:16:43,990
+هدول طبعا بنصممهم مثلا بعض الأسئلة إذا أنه انت
+
+210
+00:16:43,990 --> 00:16:47,350
+مثلا صار معاك إيه إيش ممكن تسوي إيش بتعمل okay so
+
+211
+00:16:47,350 --> 00:16:50,210
+these instruments are using to estimate risk
+
+212
+00:16:50,210 --> 00:16:54,460
+aversioncapital allocation across risky and risk
+
+213
+00:16:54,460 --> 00:16:59,640
+-free portfolios لما احنا بنكون محفظة محفظة
+
+214
+00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:09,060
+استثمارية المحفظة الاستثمارية هذه المفروض
+
+215
+00:17:09,060 --> 00:17:12,240
+بكونة من جزئين أساسيا ال investors بحطوا في بعضهم
+
+216
+00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,420
+انه ممكن تكون بكونة من risk from the two different
+
+217
+00:17:15,420 --> 00:17:20,780
+parts اللي هو risky assets and
+
+218
+00:17:20,780 --> 00:17:21,620
+risk-free assets
+
+219
+00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:29,160
+risk asset يعني أدوات استثمارية فيها مخاطر و risk
+
+220
+00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,640
+free assets أدات استثمارية مافيش فيها مخاطر okay
+
+221
+00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:36,320
+it's a very important part of portfolio
+
+222
+00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:40,690
+construction لما احنا بنبني محفظ استثماريةال asset
+
+223
+00:17:40,690 --> 00:17:43,770
+allocation التوزيع وتخصيص الموارد أهم خطوة أحنا
+
+224
+00:17:43,770 --> 00:17:47,490
+ممكن نعملها refers to the choice among broad asset
+
+225
+00:17:47,490 --> 00:17:50,670
+classes بدنا نراجع ال asset classes اللي أخدناها
+
+226
+00:17:50,670 --> 00:17:53,650
+بشر طروات في عندنا money market instruments وفي
+
+227
+00:17:53,650 --> 00:17:55,450
+عندي capital market instruments في عندي treasury
+
+228
+00:17:55,450 --> 00:17:57,590
+bills في عندي commercial favors في عندي bonds في
+
+229
+00:17:57,590 --> 00:18:00,370
+عندي stocks في عندي everything so what's the
+
+230
+00:18:00,370 --> 00:18:04,730
+classes you are willing to put in your portfolio؟
+
+231
+00:18:04,730 --> 00:18:06,630
+أيش هي ال classes أيش هي ال investments اللي أنت
+
+232
+00:18:06,630 --> 00:18:10,950
+هتحطها بال portfolio؟controlling risk كيف احنا
+
+233
+00:18:10,950 --> 00:18:15,590
+نسيطر على المخاظر simplest way هي أسهل طريقة من
+
+234
+00:18:15,590 --> 00:18:18,970
+you play the fractions of portfolio invested in
+
+235
+00:18:18,970 --> 00:18:21,730
+risky free assets versus the portion invested in
+
+236
+00:18:21,730 --> 00:18:25,310
+the risky assets أسهل طريقة احنا ممكن نعملها ان
+
+237
+00:18:25,310 --> 00:18:29,590
+احنا to use the fraction يعني مثلا شايفين risky
+
+238
+00:18:29,590 --> 00:18:35,330
+asset و risky free asset ممكن اناأروح أستثمر في
+
+239
+00:18:35,330 --> 00:18:41,150
+لحظين هك انه انا بال risk asset 30% و انا 70% و
+
+240
+00:18:41,150 --> 00:18:47,190
+أحسب ال ER و أحسب ال Sigma كمان
+
+241
+00:18:47,190 --> 00:18:52,910
+بروح بعدل بدل ما هي 30 بروح اخد 50 50 و بحسب ال ER
+
+242
+00:18:52,910 --> 00:18:58,690
+و ال Sigma P بدل 50 50 لأ بروح بزود ال asset اللي
+
+243
+00:18:58,690 --> 00:19:02,270
+فيها risk بخليها 60% و انا 40% و برضه بحسب كمان
+
+244
+00:19:02,270 --> 00:19:06,820
+برهWhat is the idea of this؟ إيش الفكرة من هذا
+
+245
+00:19:06,820 --> 00:19:10,140
+الموضوع؟ أنه أنا to reach what is the optimal
+
+246
+00:19:10,140 --> 00:19:18,600
+portfolio أحسن A أحسن R وأقل B يعني أنا عائد أقل
+
+247
+00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:24,120
+مخاطر هذا الهدف بضلني أغير في تركيبة المحفظة يعني
+
+248
+00:19:24,120 --> 00:19:30,040
+إذا ممكن أنا أبدأ مثلا risky assets و risk free
+
+249
+00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:35,240
+أبدا سفر و مية في المية يعني ايه سفر يعني انا
+
+250
+00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:40,660
+المحفظة تبعتى كلها risk free يعني خالية المخاطر
+
+251
+00:19:40,660 --> 00:19:45,460
+بعدين بزود بقول عشرين جداش هتسين هان تمانين و بحسب
+
+252
+00:19:45,460 --> 00:19:50,140
+ال ال expected return و بحسب ال sigma طيب باجى
+
+253
+00:19:50,140 --> 00:19:54,760
+كمان بقول okay خلّي اربعين ستين طيب خلّي هن عشر
+
+254
+00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:59,040
+تمانين او بنحكى خمسين خمسين fifty fiftyطيب خلينا
+
+255
+00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:04,660
+نحكي هنا عن ستين اربعين okay خلينا نحكي كمان هنا
+
+256
+00:20:04,660 --> 00:20:09,480
+تمانين عشرين و بعدين خلينا نحكي مية سفر أخدنا most
+
+257
+00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:13,360
+of the possible portfolios أخدنا أغلب الاحتمالات
+
+258
+00:20:13,360 --> 00:20:16,960
+بعدين على الطرف الأخر نحسب ال ER و نحسب ال sigma
+
+259
+00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:22,000
+عند مواحفها تكون ال ER تبعتها أعلى إشي و ال sigma
+
+260
+00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,880
+أقل إشي بيقول this is the optimal portfolio عشان
+
+261
+00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:26,640
+ما نزعجكوش
+
+262
+00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,780
+بس افهم عليك عشان ما نزعجكوش بنروح بنعمل فيه
+
+263
+00:20:32,780 --> 00:20:36,300
+معادلة بسيطة بنطبق المعادلة بتطلعلي what is the
+
+264
+00:20:36,300 --> 00:20:39,280
+optimal portfolio what is the optimal construction
+
+265
+00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:44,120
+يعني إيش أفضل تركيبة يعني إحنا .. هيك إحنا بنسوي
+
+266
+00:20:44,120 --> 00:20:48,840
+manual لكن لما إحنا بنعمل estimate أحسن تركيبة
+
+267
+00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,320
+لمحفظ الاستثمارية بدنا نستخدم المعادلة جايين نحكي
+
+268
+00:20:52,320 --> 00:21:02,260
+عن المعادلة ناخد مثالtotal market value 300 ألف
+
+269
+00:21:02,260 --> 00:21:05,780
+دولار ايش يعني total market value واحد معاه مبلغ
+
+270
+00:21:05,780 --> 00:21:13,660
+300 ألف دولار okay هدول بدو يستثمرهم اه هلا
+
+271
+00:21:13,660 --> 00:21:19,120
+هتفهميه total market value 300 ألف دولار يعني واحد
+
+272
+00:21:19,120 --> 00:21:26,600
+معاه 300 ألف دولار بدو يستثمرهم okay 300 ألفrisk
+
+273
+00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:32,420
+free money market تسعين ألف تسعين
+
+274
+00:21:32,420 --> 00:21:40,040
+ألف إيش معلومة دول risk free okay طيب ال fund
+
+275
+00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:44,880
+الباقي equities هي إيه equities طبعا هدول risk
+
+276
+00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:51,120
+free طبعا هذا هيكون إيش risky risk
+
+277
+00:21:51,120 --> 00:21:53,960
+free اللي هو money market instrument هي مكتوب risk
+
+278
+00:21:53,960 --> 00:22:00,680
+freeتسعين الف risk free ال equities مية و تلتاش
+
+279
+00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:05,840
+اربعة مية ال equities يعني إيهاش؟ القاسهم equities
+
+280
+00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:13,020
+كدهش استثمر فيهم؟ مية و تلتاش اربعة مية ال bonds
+
+281
+00:22:13,020 --> 00:22:15,900
+استثمر في ال bonds ستة وتسعين و ستمية
+
+282
+00:22:19,510 --> 00:22:22,150
+طيب، هلو لو احنا جماعة ما جداش استثمر في ال risk
+
+283
+00:22:22,150 --> 00:22:26,630
+مية و تلتاش و ستة و تسعة و ستمية بطلعوا متين و
+
+284
+00:22:26,630 --> 00:22:31,690
+عشرة طيب، جداش تركيبة المحفظة هذه؟ جداش نسبة ال
+
+285
+00:22:31,690 --> 00:22:36,510
+risk free ل ال risk asset؟ بحسبها هو مستثمر تلتمية
+
+286
+00:22:36,510 --> 00:22:45,670
+تسعين risk free و متين و عشرة okay متين و عشرة
+
+287
+00:22:45,670 --> 00:22:48,130
+risk asset جداش بطلع النسبة؟
+
+288
+00:22:53,250 --> 00:23:03,650
+هنشوف ال risk free تلاتين في المية okay والتانية
+
+289
+00:23:03,650 --> 00:23:08,810
+سبعين
+
+290
+00:23:08,810 --> 00:23:13,030
+في المية هتكون طيب سبعين في المية طيب هلا نركز على
+
+291
+00:23:13,030 --> 00:23:18,260
+السبعين في المية هدولوزن ال equity احنا استثمرنا
+
+292
+00:23:18,260 --> 00:23:23,420
+بال equity 113 400 تكسيب على 210 بطلع استثمرنا 54%
+
+293
+00:23:23,420 --> 00:23:30,780
+من ال portfolio 54% من ال risk assets هي equity و
+
+294
+00:23:30,780 --> 00:23:37,320
+46% هي cash اي bonds okay
+
+295
+00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:38,460
+طيب
+
+296
+00:23:43,350 --> 00:23:48,750
+نيجي هذا، قولنا احنا المحفظة هذه 30% ريسكي risk
+
+297
+00:23:48,750 --> 00:23:59,710
+-free و 70% كم ريسكي risk-asset إذا احنا اعتبرنا
+
+298
+00:23:59,710 --> 00:24:08,530
+ال risk-assets Y فبتكون هذه 1-Y، مظبوط؟ إذا
+
+299
+00:24:08,530 --> 00:24:14,360
+اعتبرنا هذه Y فبتكون هذه 1-YOkay؟ زي ما انتوا
+
+300
+00:24:14,360 --> 00:24:21,820
+شايفين احنا
+
+301
+00:24:21,820 --> 00:24:28,340
+مثال الفات خلينا نبعث الكلام هلا احنا حكيناها
+
+302
+00:24:28,340 --> 00:24:36,740
+تلاتين في المية risk free كام؟ تسعين الف صح؟ و هذه
+
+303
+00:24:36,740 --> 00:24:42,140
+تقريبا عندنا .. عندنا كام؟
+
+304
+00:24:44,750 --> 00:24:50,910
+عنا مية و تلتاش equity وعنا ستة وتسعين ستة وتسعين
+
+305
+00:24:50,910 --> 00:24:59,230
+و ستمية bonds هدول اللي أنا بظللهم هدول risky اللي
+
+306
+00:24:59,230 --> 00:25:03,250
+هي بتشمل كام كلها بعضها سبعين في المية وهذه بتشمل
+
+307
+00:25:03,250 --> 00:25:07,750
+تلاتين في المية بس انا ال risky جسمتها باسمين bond
+
+308
+00:25:07,750 --> 00:25:17,120
+equity و bonds فإذا اعتبرنا هذه YY بتساوي 70 بتكون
+
+309
+00:25:17,120 --> 00:25:21,920
+واحد ناقص Y بتساوي 30 يعني إذا كانت Y سبع .. سبعين
+
+310
+00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,380
+بده تكون واحد ناقص Y، يداش؟ تلاتين، بدهاش يعني
+
+311
+00:25:25,380 --> 00:25:32,320
+علم، لأ؟ طيب، هيها Y بتين و عشرة، حجم الاستثمار
+
+312
+00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,680
+بتين و عشرة كله هذا، بتين و عشرة على تلاتمائة ألف
+
+313
+00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:40,160
+واحد ناقص Y له تسعين ألف على تلاتمائة ألف، مابدهاش
+
+314
+00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:46,890
+شي كتير يعنيرسبة ال equity هي 37.8 من كل المحفظة
+
+315
+00:25:46,890 --> 00:25:53,370
+نسبة ال bond 32.2 لو احنا جمعنا هذه زائد هذه هتطلع
+
+316
+00:25:53,370 --> 00:25:59,310
+هذه ال equity اجمعوا ال equity مع ال bonds هتطلع
+
+317
+00:25:59,310 --> 00:26:03,210
+هذه كلها the risk free assets بدا نحكي عن risk
+
+318
+00:26:03,210 --> 00:26:07,850
+free assets ال risk free assets only the
+
+319
+00:26:07,850 --> 00:26:12,420
+government can issue default free bondsبس الحكومات
+
+320
+00:26:12,420 --> 00:26:19,840
+اللي بتصدر risk-free assets اللي هو أدوات مالية
+
+321
+00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,820
+خالية من المخاطر، طب إحنا عندنا في فلسطين، في
+
+322
+00:26:22,820 --> 00:26:25,560
+عندنا أدوات خالية خالية من المخاطر؟
+
+323
+00:26:29,510 --> 00:26:32,830
+يعني هال .. لو اجينا احنا سألنا سؤال بسيط انت
+
+324
+00:26:32,830 --> 00:26:35,490
+أستاذ قاعد بتدرسنا على أمريكا و ما أمريكا و عملنا
+
+325
+00:26:35,490 --> 00:26:39,490
+دوشة في الموضوع طب احنا بنكون محفظة استثمارية فيها
+
+326
+00:26:39,490 --> 00:26:47,770
+risk-free assets و فيها risk assets طب
+
+327
+00:26:47,770 --> 00:26:51,730
+عندنا سؤال عن كمية؟ ماعناش؟ ايو .. هذا سؤال انا
+
+328
+00:26:51,730 --> 00:26:56,560
+سألكوا في chapter one لما قلتلكمevaluate the
+
+329
+00:26:56,560 --> 00:27:00,180
+investment environment in Palestinian territories
+
+330
+00:27:00,180 --> 00:27:04,260
+احنا فيه عندنا risk-free assets ال risk-free
+
+331
+00:27:04,260 --> 00:27:08,260
+assets حسب سلطة النخدة الفلسطينية بتحدد مثلا عندنا
+
+332
+00:27:08,260 --> 00:27:12,720
+سعر إعادة الخسم اللي بتحدد سلطة النخدة الفلسطينية
+
+333
+00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:18,360
+هذا يعتبر risk-free في عندنا مثلا اللي هو نسبة
+
+334
+00:27:18,360 --> 00:27:21,640
+الاحتياط اللي بتفرض سلطة النخدة على البنوك هذا
+
+335
+00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,880
+نسبة الاحتياط as a indicator ل risk-free assets
+
+336
+00:27:26,460 --> 00:27:30,380
+Okay يعني ممكن نستخدم other approaches مش شرط انه
+
+337
+00:27:30,380 --> 00:27:34,400
+treasury bills يعني أقل ان في كل دولة من الدول هما
+
+338
+00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:40,520
+they know what is the risk free assets طيب فهذا
+
+339
+00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:46,800
+اجابتنا للسؤال portfolio
+
+340
+00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,800
+of one risk assets and risk free assets اذا كنا
+
+341
+00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:54,660
+نعمل محفظة استثمارية بتتكون منrisk assets risk
+
+342
+00:27:54,660 --> 00:27:57,220
+assets و risk free assets it's possible to create
+
+343
+00:27:57,220 --> 00:27:59,920
+a complete portfolio by splitting investment funds
+
+344
+00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:05,700
+between safe and risky assets let's y portion
+
+345
+00:28:05,700 --> 00:28:09,500
+allocated the risky portfolio هذا شرحنا one minus
+
+346
+00:28:09,500 --> 00:28:13,440
+one one minus y portion to be invested in risky
+
+347
+00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:19,100
+free assets F يعني احنا بدنا نعمل محفظة هذه نفسها
+
+348
+00:28:19,100 --> 00:28:25,000
+ال one minus one نسميها Fإيش يعني F؟ Risk-free و
+
+349
+00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:30,660
+ال .. و ال 70 هذه سميها B اللي هو Risk Assets okay
+
+350
+00:28:30,660 --> 00:28:36,620
+إيش بيصير معنى؟ بيصير معنى example using a chapter
+
+351
+00:28:36,620 --> 00:28:44,860
+ترجع ل مثال في صفحة في .. في chapter 6.4 numbers
+
+352
+00:28:44,860 --> 00:28:50,400
+إذا كان عند ال risk-free 7% risk
+
+353
+00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:58,910
+-free 7%و ال sigma of risk free is zero انتبهوا يا
+
+354
+00:28:58,910 --> 00:29:09,530
+بنات هذا محطة أسئلة كتيرة ال risk free لو
+
+355
+00:29:09,530 --> 00:29:16,230
+كان ال risk free X يعني دي risk free X دي sigma of
+
+356
+00:29:16,230 --> 00:29:18,970
+risk free قدش هتساوي
+
+357
+00:29:23,900 --> 00:29:27,920
+العائد الخالي من المخاطر بيساوي X رقمه لأن X
+
+358
+00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:36,020
+بيساوي 8% سيجما F طيب
+
+359
+00:29:36,020 --> 00:29:42,340
+خليني انا .. يا بابا انتبه هذا .. ارجع طلعوا هان
+
+360
+00:29:42,340 --> 00:29:47,180
+.. اه بالظبط طلعوا هان .. بنات فاتحولي بالكوا هان
+
+361
+00:29:47,180 --> 00:29:50,560
+ال R هان تمانية في المية طب السيجما كدهش مشقولنا
+
+362
+00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:51,800
+احنا هي سيجما وهي ER
+
+363
+00:29:56,010 --> 00:30:06,330
+السيجما جداش؟ السيجما سفر سيجما سفر اي
+
+364
+00:30:06,330 --> 00:30:13,130
+نقطة موجودة هنا تساوي 9% ستكون السيجما high هاي
+
+365
+00:30:13,130 --> 00:30:21,450
+السيجما تحتها RF 7% سيجما RF 0% هذا السؤال سأسألكم
+
+366
+00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:27,240
+في الامتحان حصلت فيها هل
+
+367
+00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:32,460
+جيت بالفضاء يا بنات بالفضاء بالفضاء بتجاوبوا نيح
+
+368
+00:30:32,460 --> 00:30:36,620
+بس لما نيجي الامتحان لأنه احنا انتبه بس أحكي على
+
+369
+00:30:36,620 --> 00:30:39,980
+الكلمتين شبابنا و بناتنا للأسف الشديد بيجروا ليلة
+
+370
+00:30:39,980 --> 00:30:45,640
+امتحانو اللي بنجمعه بسرعة بننساه بسرعة فهد .. هد
+
+371
+00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:49,440
+مشكلتكم فأنا بنصحكم ان تقروا قبل الامتحان ترتبوا
+
+372
+00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:54,460
+حالكم تعملوا جدول انه يوم الامتحان او قبل الامتحان
+
+373
+00:30:54,460 --> 00:31:01,160
+بيوم هي بس مراجعة بس يعني just Beijing طيب
+
+374
+00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:07,360
+ال Rf 7% ال Sigma Rf 0%
+
+375
+00:31:10,390 --> 00:31:18,970
+الـ Expected Rp 15%، الـ Sigma B 22%، الـ Y is a
+
+376
+00:31:18,970 --> 00:31:26,890
+percentage in B, Y1 is a percentage of RF مثلًا،
+
+377
+00:31:26,890 --> 00:31:29,890
+الـ expected return on the complete portfolio is
+
+378
+00:31:29,890 --> 00:31:32,770
+the risk-free rate plus the weight of B times the
+
+379
+00:31:32,770 --> 00:31:38,840
+risk premium طلع على المعادلة هناالـ expected
+
+380
+00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,500
+return of the complete portfolio هاد ال C complete
+
+381
+00:31:42,500 --> 00:31:48,480
+portfolio بتساوى ال RF احنا عارفينها زائد ال Y
+
+382
+00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:55,340
+times ال Y طبعا هان ال weight اللي احنا أخدناه
+
+383
+00:31:55,340 --> 00:31:56,440
+الوزن
+
+384
+00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:10,220
+بس احنا هو .. لما انا بقول وزن ال B يساوي Y ووزن
+
+385
+00:32:10,220 --> 00:32:15,960
+the weight of one minus Y is equal one minus Y or
+
+386
+00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:23,160
+F بس بدنا أحرف so RF plus Y طبعا عارفين ARP minus
+
+387
+00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:28,540
+RF وبالتالي بتساوي الإجابة ال complete portfolio
+
+388
+00:32:28,540 --> 00:32:30,060
+من الكلام اللي احنا خدناه
+
+389
+00:32:33,790 --> 00:32:38,870
+معطيات طبعا اه هاي معطيات بعدين ال complete
+
+390
+00:32:38,870 --> 00:32:45,850
+portfolio بيساوي 7 plus y 15-7 بس احنا عوضنا مش
+
+391
+00:32:45,850 --> 00:32:50,170
+اكتر طيب لسه نكمل المثال ال risk of the complete
+
+392
+00:32:50,170 --> 00:32:53,110
+portfolio is ايش risk of complete portfolio؟ يعني
+
+393
+00:32:53,110 --> 00:32:57,670
+ال sigma تنعد c ال complete portfolio ايش بتشمل؟
+
+394
+00:32:57,670 --> 00:33:06,750
+بتشمل ال sigma ال y والواحد minus yيعني الوزن تبع
+
+395
+00:33:06,750 --> 00:33:12,350
+ال risk asset و الوزن تبع ال risk free assets so
+
+396
+00:33:12,350 --> 00:33:14,430
+the risk of the complete portfolio is the weight
+
+397
+00:33:14,430 --> 00:33:22,910
+of B times the risk of B يعني sigma C يعني شوفوا
+
+398
+00:33:22,910 --> 00:33:29,650
+احنا ايش قلنا قلنا هذي sigma اللي هي ال 1 minus Y
+
+399
+00:33:29,650 --> 00:33:37,150
+هذي sigma ال Yهذه كلها مع بعضها شوفوا هذا بدا
+
+400
+00:33:37,150 --> 00:33:43,810
+أظللها بدا تكون sigma c اللي هي sigma c منطقيا
+
+401
+00:33:43,810 --> 00:33:51,030
+هتساوي sigma y زائد sigma 1 minus y، مظبوط؟ هذا
+
+402
+00:33:51,030 --> 00:33:54,110
+بفضوء يعني أشرحلكم إياها يعني أنا لو دلت الأمور
+
+403
+00:33:54,110 --> 00:34:00,870
+بضل ماشي فيها طيب إذا احنا نعرف sigma 1y بتساوي
+
+404
+00:34:00,870 --> 00:34:06,050
+سفر، صح؟لأن ال sigma تبعت ال risk free حكينا فيها
+
+405
+00:34:06,050 --> 00:34:10,730
+تساوي سفر طب إذا ال sigma هذي تساوي سفر إذا sigma
+
+406
+00:34:10,730 --> 00:34:17,490
+C تساوي sigma B إيش
+
+407
+00:34:17,490 --> 00:34:23,870
+رأيك انت شايفها هم طبعا تساوي سفر إذا sigma C
+
+408
+00:34:23,870 --> 00:34:29,490
+بتساوي إيش و هذي رياضيات إيش احنا بس جيبنا هذي
+
+409
+00:34:29,490 --> 00:34:33,340
+تساوي سفر و روحنا عوضنا فيها مش أكترسيجما C بتساوي
+
+410
+00:34:33,340 --> 00:34:41,120
+سيجما B بجد
+
+411
+00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:45,840
+بنات فيها صعوبة هذه؟ هذه واضحة مافيها مشكلة يعني
+
+412
+00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:49,840
+احنا بس روح نهيها انا قولتلكوا السيجما تحت واحد
+
+413
+00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:54,980
+minus one سيجما تبعت risk free وهي تساوي سفر هذه
+
+414
+00:34:54,980 --> 00:34:59,820
+سيجما Y مابتساويش سفر بتساوي something هناوبالتالي
+
+415
+00:34:59,820 --> 00:35:02,640
+الـ Complete Portfolio هذي كلها الـ Sigma C كلها
+
+416
+00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:11,140
+بتساوي Sigma B very simple okay يعني لو أنا بجيكوا
+
+417
+00:35:11,140 --> 00:35:14,640
+في الامتحان بقولكم Sigma ال expected return تبعها
+
+418
+00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:18,040
+سوى كذا و ال expected يعني مثلا لو قلنا ال
+
+419
+00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:25,820
+expected return تبعت B بتساوي 7% و expected return
+
+420
+00:35:25,820 --> 00:35:35,790
+ofand the RF is three percent وقلنا لكوا sigma B
+
+421
+00:35:35,790 --> 00:35:44,270
+بتساوي one point two calculate sigma
+
+422
+00:35:44,270 --> 00:35:49,170
+C تفقد قبل ما تحكوا calculate sigma C تسعة وتسعين
+
+423
+00:35:49,170 --> 00:35:52,930
+في المياه بالبنات يا أستاذ قولهم اه طبعا هذا خبرتي
+
+424
+00:35:52,930 --> 00:35:57,670
+مع الطلاب و الطالبانمش ماتعطينا انت sigma .. sigma
+
+425
+00:35:57,670 --> 00:36:03,390
+.. sigma F مش ماتعطينا ايها طب يعني انا يعني
+
+426
+00:36:03,390 --> 00:36:07,170
+حاططكوا هيك يعني السؤال طب انا عارف ان انا
+
+427
+00:36:07,170 --> 00:36:09,910
+ماتعطيكوا .. مش ماتعطيكوا ايها بعد الامتحان
+
+428
+00:36:09,910 --> 00:36:15,190
+هقولكوا ايها لأن sigma ال B ال one minus Y بتساوي
+
+429
+00:36:15,190 --> 00:36:19,130
+سافر فابدى اقولكياها يعني ماهدياش assumption يعني
+
+430
+00:36:19,130 --> 00:36:24,150
+بدي هي لازم تعرفيها فهتكون ال sigma C كده هتساوي
+
+431
+00:36:24,890 --> 00:36:31,830
+one point two بس هتكون واحد فاصلة اتنين لأنه قلنا
+
+432
+00:36:31,830 --> 00:36:46,310
+احنا sigma c بتساوي sigma b ايوة
+
+433
+00:36:46,310 --> 00:36:52,080
+ما هي احنا ها مش قلنا sigma c بتساوي sigma bطبعا
+
+434
+00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:56,580
+لما احنا نجي نجي نقول له sigma C بتساوي اللي هو
+
+435
+00:36:56,580 --> 00:37:05,320
+one minus one times sigma بتاعة ال F مظبوط plus Y
+
+436
+00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:13,440
+sigma بتاعة ال C بتاعة ال B مظبوط فهذه بتساوي تطلع
+
+437
+00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:21,000
+سفرفبتسيق ال sigma c بتساوي y sigma b لسه مكملناش
+
+438
+00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:25,260
+فاكرين لما قولتلك و احنا لازم نطلع ال y لما نطلع
+
+439
+00:37:25,260 --> 00:37:28,940
+الوزن مابنعش نضل نجرب و نجرب في معادلة بتطلع الوزن
+
+440
+00:37:28,940 --> 00:37:33,860
+طب اذا y ايش هتساوي هنا من رياضية التاني اعدادي
+
+441
+00:37:33,860 --> 00:37:37,600
+يعني
+
+442
+00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:43,040
+هي sigma c بتساوي y sigma b مظبوط من رياضية التاني
+
+443
+00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:53,170
+اعدادي ايش هتساويy هتساوي sigma c على sigma b طيب
+
+444
+00:37:53,170 --> 00:37:57,690
+اذا انا معرف sigma c و بعرف sigma b y جداش هتكون
+
+445
+00:37:57,690 --> 00:38:02,270
+هاطلعها شوفتوا كيف احنا شوي شوي طلعنا لما وصلنا
+
+446
+00:38:02,270 --> 00:38:07,550
+لهذه ال equation لأ
+
+447
+00:38:07,550 --> 00:38:13,430
+جصدي الاشتقاقات انتوا خليكوا على اخر اشي هذا لأ
+
+448
+00:38:13,430 --> 00:38:19,170
+لسه مخلصشطيب هذا ال .. هذا بقاش بيذكركن تبقوا بس
+
+449
+00:38:19,170 --> 00:38:25,330
+يلا اللي بيحذر هذا أنا بتعطيه خمس درجات هذه
+
+450
+00:38:25,330 --> 00:38:30,270
+المعادلة بقاش بتذكركن لأ لأ فى شغل احنا خدناها
+
+451
+00:38:30,270 --> 00:38:36,010
+شكله طلعوا كيف هذه
+
+452
+00:38:36,010 --> 00:38:40,310
+الحرارة
+
+453
+00:38:40,310 --> 00:38:47,620
+ده اللى هتعرفطلعوا طلعوا شكلها مش شكلها إيش اللي
+
+454
+00:38:47,620 --> 00:38:56,000
+فوق و اللي تحت اسمعتوا في شغلة اسمها مرة ما أنا
+
+455
+00:38:56,000 --> 00:39:03,120
+عارف اسمعتوا في شغلة اسمها شار بريشو شار هذي شار
+
+456
+00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:06,700
+بريشو أصلا شوفتوا وان أحنا بالأخير كلها الدوشة
+
+457
+00:39:06,700 --> 00:39:10,950
+وصلناها عشان نشتغ شار بريشوبن .. ال slope هيساوي
+
+458
+00:39:10,950 --> 00:39:15,050
+expected return of P minus RF على sigma P بطلع
+
+459
+00:39:15,050 --> 00:39:20,110
+تمانية ع اتنين و عشرين هذا المثال يا بنات بترجعوه
+
+460
+00:39:20,110 --> 00:39:25,030
+في ال .. في الكتاب و .. و احنا هنعطيكوا مشابه له
+
+461
+00:39:25,030 --> 00:39:29,650
+بالامتحان تمام؟ نجف عند هذا ال slides
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7f1345eba898ff4245eba8237702d5d3e3eed77a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1563 @@
+1
+00:00:20,810 --> 00:00:26,690
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا اليوم بنحكي عن chapter
+
+2
+00:00:26,690 --> 00:00:30,810
+eleven أو chapter four أو chapter eleven, the same
+
+3
+00:00:30,810 --> 00:00:38,090
+ال chapter الرابع تمام حسب الخطة بتاعتنا و سابقا 
+
+4
+00:00:38,090 --> 00:00:40,890
+كنا نحكي عن ال chapter one و chapter two و chapter
+
+5
+00:00:40,890 --> 00:00:46,050
+three كنا نحكي عن ال securities and how we trade
+
+6
+00:00:46,050 --> 00:00:49,840
+on these securities وكيف احنا بنتاجر بهذه ال
+
+7
+00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:56,160
+securities يعني الأدوات المالية اليوم بدنا  to ask
+
+8
+00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,140
+a big question whether the pricing system is
+
+9
+00:00:59,140 --> 00:01:03,880
+efficient or not يعني هل التسعير هو efficient كفوء
+
+10
+00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:08,420
+ولا لأ يعني هل الأسواق المالية كفوء أو لأ خليني
+
+11
+00:01:08,420 --> 00:01:12,340
+أبدأ بالسؤال الأول اللي احنا سألناه اللي هو ال
+
+12
+00:01:12,340 --> 00:01:17,510
+pricing لو كان عندي أنا سعر لشركة ياهو يعني مثلا
+
+13
+00:01:17,510 --> 00:01:21,870
+نحكي ياهو شرق سعر سهم ياهو 22 دولار
+
+14
+00:01:21,870 --> 00:01:26,550
+okay 22
+
+15
+00:01:26,550 --> 00:01:30,490
+و عشرين دولار the question is does this price
+
+16
+00:01:30,490 --> 00:01:36,090
+reflect the actual performance of Yahoo or not يعني
+
+17
+00:01:36,090 --> 00:01:40,950
+هل 22 دولار بتعكس الوضع الحقيقي ليا هو this is the
+
+18
+00:01:40,950 --> 00:01:45,730
+question if إذا كان 22 دولار بتعكس الوضع الحقيقي
+
+19
+00:01:45,730 --> 00:01:50,850
+لياهو مع كلام ال pricing system is efficient يعني
+
+20
+00:01:50,850 --> 00:01:52,010
+بيكون التسعير كفوء
+
+21
+00:01:54,630 --> 00:01:58,750
+الـ 22 لا يعكس إدارة الـ Yahoo الواقعي، هذا
+
+22
+00:01:58,750 --> 00:02:05,930
+يعني أن نظام الأسعار غير كفوء ما 
+
+23
+00:02:05,930 --> 00:02:10,790
+هي المعاملات التي نتجرّب إذا كانت الأسعار مفيدة أو 
+
+24
+00:02:10,790 --> 00:02:15,790
+غير مفيدة؟ يعني إيش هي ال parameters أو المعلميات
+
+25
+00:02:15,790 --> 00:02:19,470
+اللي من خلالها بيحكي أن نظام الأسعار مفيد أو غير
+
+26
+00:02:19,470 --> 00:02:26,080
+مفيد؟ one of the main parameters is the information
+
+27
+00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:34,260
+المعلومات information we divided information into
+
+28
+00:02:34,260 --> 00:02:37,400
+two main types private information and public
+
+29
+00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:43,440
+information معلومات خاصة ومعلومات عامة generally
+
+30
+00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:48,160
+speaking the board of directors and the executives
+
+31
+00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:54,840
+keep the private information يعني عادة بيكون عندهم
+
+32
+00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,880
+ال private information these people known as
+
+33
+00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:02,700
+insiders these
+
+34
+00:03:02,700 --> 00:03:07,200
+people known as insiders be careful we don't mean
+
+35
+00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:13,540
+that insiders like lower management levels or the
+
+36
+00:03:13,540 --> 00:03:17,500
+normal employees ما نعنّيش بال insiders هم الموظفين
+
+37
+00:03:17,500 --> 00:03:21,440
+بتوع الشركة because sometimes these employees are
+
+38
+00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,660
+even far away from the decision making process
+
+39
+00:03:24,660 --> 00:03:28,760
+يعني هدول الموظفين بيكونوا بعيدين عن اتخاذ القرار
+
+40
+00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,940
+for instance as I gave you example earlier about
+
+41
+00:03:31,940 --> 00:03:37,150
+about the company of Toyota when Toyota design a
+
+42
+00:03:37,150 --> 00:03:40,310
+new generation of their car a very limited number
+
+43
+00:03:40,310 --> 00:03:44,010
+of employees know about this يعني لما شركة Toyota
+
+44
+00:03:44,010 --> 00:03:47,770
+بتقرر الجيل الجديد تبع السيارات بتوعهم عدد محدود
+
+45
+00:03:47,770 --> 00:03:52,430
+من الموظفين I mean the big people in Toyota they
+
+46
+00:03:52,430 --> 00:03:56,340
+know this even Samsung even Apple نفس الشغلة
+
+47
+00:03:56,340 --> 00:03:59,420
+Samsung و نفس الشغلة Apple even in the local
+
+48
+00:03:59,420 --> 00:04:02,800
+companies حتى الشركات المحلية يعني very very very
+
+49
+00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,720
+limited employees know about the strategic
+
+50
+00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:11,260
+decision of the business فهدول نسميهم ال insider's
+
+51
+00:04:11,260 --> 00:04:16,200
+other people known as outsiders ال outsiders
+
+52
+00:04:20,350 --> 00:04:24,050
+outsiders هم الناس ال public الناس العاديين عندهم
+
+53
+00:04:24,050 --> 00:04:26,770
+معلومات عامة عن الشركة public information public
+
+54
+00:04:26,770 --> 00:04:30,330
+information is historical information ال public
+
+55
+00:04:30,330 --> 00:04:32,930
+information هي معلومات عامة historical information
+
+56
+00:04:32,930 --> 00:04:35,310
+ال people already know about this information
+
+57
+00:04:35,310 --> 00:04:40,190
+والناس already بيعرفوا أن هاي المعلومات if the
+
+58
+00:04:40,190 --> 00:04:43,270
+price let's go back to the price if the price
+
+59
+00:04:43,270 --> 00:04:46,840
+reflect all of the available information whether
+
+60
+00:04:46,840 --> 00:04:50,980
+private information or public information so the
+
+61
+00:04:50,980 --> 00:04:54,320
+market is efficient إذا كان السعر بيعكس كل
+
+62
+00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,720
+المعلومات سواء كانت معلومات داخلية أو معلومات
+
+63
+00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:02,260
+خارجية أي معلومات so the price is efficient السعر
+
+64
+00:05:02,260 --> 00:05:09,020
+بيكون efficient كفوء okay this leads us to talk about
+
+65
+00:05:09,020 --> 00:05:12,580
+the efficient market hypothesis which is the main
+
+66
+00:05:12,580 --> 00:05:16,640
+objective of this chapter هذا بيخلّينا نحكي على
+
+67
+00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:24,120
+النظرية أو الفرضية من الأسواق الدولية the first
+
+68
+00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:25,340
+people talked about this
+
+69
+00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:51,070
+ماحدش بيستطيع يتنبأ الأسعار where is the price going
+
+70
+00:05:51,070 --> 00:05:58,330
+يعني بالأهم طرح أو أهم فرضية بالأسواق المالية
+
+71
+00:05:58,330 --> 00:06:04,570
+الكفوة أنه ماحد بيقدر يتنبأ where is the price going
+
+72
+00:06:04,570 --> 00:06:11,110
+okay for instance today we are in 23rd of March
+
+73
+00:06:11,110 --> 00:06:19,690
+احنا في 23 مارس my question is now tomorrow this or
+
+74
+00:06:19,690 --> 00:06:23,410
+on Monday the market will open can you predict
+
+75
+00:06:23,410 --> 00:06:26,410
+where is the price going going up or going down
+
+76
+00:06:26,410 --> 00:06:30,550
+and to what extent you can predict on this if the
+
+77
+00:06:30,550 --> 00:06:33,430
+market is efficient no one can predict where is
+
+78
+00:06:33,430 --> 00:06:39,710
+the market going is a candle why because the
+
+79
+00:06:39,710 --> 00:06:44,200
+prices already reflect all of the information لأن
+
+80
+00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,460
+الأسعار أصلا بتعرف كل المعلومات ال prices are
+
+81
+00:06:47,460 --> 00:06:54,600
+sensitive الأسعار هي حساسة كثير وما بياخد بعين
+
+82
+00:06:54,600 --> 00:07:01,980
+الاعتبار كل المعلومات okay and
+
+83
+00:07:01,980 --> 00:07:05,440
+based on this the price follows a random walk
+
+84
+00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:13,480
+الأسعار تمشي random walk Random walk تمشي بطريقة
+
+85
+00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:17,220
+عشوائية there
+
+86
+00:07:17,220 --> 00:07:22,240
+is no prediction on where is the price going if
+
+87
+00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:26,760
+anyone in this universe argue that he or she can
+
+88
+00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,780
+predict the price don't believe him or her إذا حد
+
+89
+00:07:30,780 --> 00:07:33,780
+في العالم كله بيحكيك وانا بقدر اتنبأ السعر و انا
+
+90
+00:07:33,780 --> 00:07:37,680
+رايح وين جاي ماتصدقوهش انا بحكي عن ال efficient
+
+91
+00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:38,240
+markets
+
+92
+00:07:41,580 --> 00:07:43,800
+في ال efficient market في الأسواق المالية الكفوية
+
+93
+00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:47,940
+there is no way any people to predict where is the
+
+94
+00:07:47,940 --> 00:07:51,980
+price going maybe by chance they can do this
+
+95
+00:07:51,980 --> 00:07:56,780
+ممكن بالصدفة يعرفوا but the prices reflect itself
+
+96
+00:07:56,780 --> 00:08:00,160
+and change their routes ممكن الأسعار نفسها سوف
+
+97
+00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:04,740
+تتغير مسارها and this is .. we will talk about
+
+98
+00:08:04,740 --> 00:08:07,020
+this in behavioral finance لما نحكي عن behavioral
+
+99
+00:08:07,020 --> 00:08:13,330
+finance السلوك .. السلوك المال أو السلوك التمويلي
+
+100
+00:08:13,330 --> 00:08:18,730
+هنشوف أن ال price بتغير
+
+101
+00:08:18,730 --> 00:08:25,530
+توجهاتها حسب ال investors ال prices are as likely
+
+102
+00:08:25,530 --> 00:08:31,710
+to go up as to go down on any particular day يعني
+
+103
+00:08:31,710 --> 00:08:38,160
+if you ask me to buy or to sell إذا بتسألوني buy or
+
+104
+00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,140
+sell I say to you it doesn't matter to buy or to
+
+105
+00:08:41,140 --> 00:08:47,440
+sell مش مهم buy ولا sell because if you say buy 50
+
+106
+00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:51,680
+% buy and 50% sell no one can predict on this
+
+107
+00:08:51,680 --> 00:08:56,080
+because the market is floating at the moment so
+
+108
+00:08:56,080 --> 00:09:00,580
+prices are as likely to go up as to go down يعني
+
+109
+00:09:00,580 --> 00:09:04,500
+بالنسبة ما هي بتطلع هي بتنزل يعني if we are here
+
+110
+00:09:05,260 --> 00:09:10,080
+and you buy or you bought don't regret that you
+
+111
+00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:14,900
+bought and if you sold don't regret that you sold
+
+112
+00:09:14,900 --> 00:09:18,020
+يعني إذا أنتو اشتريتوا ما تدوموش و إذا أنتو
+
+113
+00:09:18,020 --> 00:09:21,700
+بعتوا ما تدوموش because buying and
+
+114
+00:09:21,700 --> 00:09:27,660
+selling have similar weight إنه نفس الوزن this is
+
+115
+00:09:27,660 --> 00:09:30,540
+in the efficient markets هذا بال efficient markets
+
+116
+00:09:30,540 --> 00:09:35,420
+even if you have private information حتى لو كان
+
+117
+00:09:35,420 --> 00:09:39,860
+عندك معلومات داخلية، why؟ ليش لو عندنا معلومات
+
+118
+00:09:39,860 --> 00:09:43,220
+داخلية حتى ما بنقدرش نستفيد منها؟ because the
+
+119
+00:09:43,220 --> 00:09:46,740
+price in the efficient market is already reflected
+
+120
+00:09:46,740 --> 00:09:50,940
+in the new information لأن الأسعار في الأسواق
+
+121
+00:09:50,940 --> 00:09:54,340
+المالية الكفوءة و قابلة بتعكس المعلومات أصلا قبل
+
+122
+00:09:54,340 --> 00:10:00,900
+ما تحصل في السوق because the price predicts the
+
+123
+00:10:00,900 --> 00:10:05,960
+future لأن الأسعار تتوقع المستقبل هي is like a
+
+124
+00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:11,120
+human being زي كأنها الإنسان okay predict the
+
+125
+00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:15,600
+future so if the price predicts the future and you
+
+126
+00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:19,460
+have a new information in the prediction process
+
+127
+00:10:19,460 --> 00:10:21,880
+the price already considered the new information
+
+128
+00:10:23,140 --> 00:10:26,880
+this is a philosophical point of view، هذه طريقة
+
+129
+00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:30,880
+فلسفية، بتحكوا بالأسعار، إذا كان الأسعار نفسها 
+
+130
+00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:35,000
+بتتنبأ للمستقبل، فأي معلومة جديدة، أخطر السوق
+
+131
+00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:40,380
+بيكون ماخدها بالإعتبار، okay؟
+
+132
+00:10:40,380 --> 00:10:44,080
+and if there is a new information وإذا حتى فيه
+
+133
+00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:46,880
+معلومات جديدة، nobody can know where is the price
+
+134
+00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:52,220
+going why؟ ليش؟ because no one predicts the
+
+135
+00:10:52,220 --> 00:10:56,440
+declaration of the new information ما حدش بيعرف أول
+
+136
+00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,160
+شيء إيش ال implications تبعت المعلومات، هذا واحد،
+
+137
+00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,760
+اثنين، كمان ما حدش بيعرف متى سيتم الإعلان عن
+
+138
+00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,420
+المعلومات، it's like breaking news، like إيش؟
+
+139
+00:11:07,420 --> 00:11:12,520
+breaking news، like خبر عاجل خبر عاجل على إن
+
+140
+00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:16,760
+الشركات ممنوع مثلا إنه هي تحكي بالمعلومات كتير
+
+141
+00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:19,860
+خاصة بالشركة لازم يكون في conference و يعلنوا هذا
+
+142
+00:11:19,860 --> 00:11:23,500
+الموضوع فهذا خبر عاجل الشركة بتطلع و بتحكي
+
+143
+00:11:23,500 --> 00:11:27,460
+announce على ال strategy اتبعتهم فالكل بيكون
+
+144
+00:11:27,460 --> 00:11:30,200
+بتفاجأة و الأسعار بتتغير بطريقة عشوائية
+
+145
+00:11:33,220 --> 00:11:37,860
+How do we explain random stock price change؟ إذا
+
+146
+00:11:37,860 --> 00:11:43,400
+الأسعار زي ما احنا حكيناها is randomly walk، يعني
+
+147
+00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:48,480
+we don't know whether the change is up or down،
+
+148
+00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,800
+this is fifty percent going up and fifty percent
+
+149
+00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,480
+is going down، خمسين في المياه احتمال تطلع، خمسين
+
+150
+00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:57,440
+في المياه احتمال تنخفض
+
+151
+00:12:04,050 --> 00:12:09,150
+efficient market hypothesis AMH efficient market hypothesis
+
+152
+00:12:09,150 --> 00:12:10,730
+hypothesis AMH efficient market hypothesis AMH efficient
+
+153
+00:12:10,730 --> 00:12:12,810
+market hypothesis AMH efficient market hypothesis AMH
+
+154
+00:12:12,810 --> 00:12:14,150
+efficient market hypothesis AMH efficient market hypothesis
+
+155
+00:12:14,150 --> 00:12:15,770
+AMH efficient market hypothesis AMH efficient market
+
+156
+00:12:15,770 --> 00:12:19,270
+hypothesis AMH efficient market hypothesis AMH efficient
+
+157
+00:12:19,270 --> 00:12:22,440
+market hypothesis AMH all available information
+
+158
+00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,920
+whether this information is private information or
+
+159
+00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:28,100
+public information سواء هي معلومات داخل الشركة أو
+
+160
+00:12:28,100 --> 00:12:31,380
+خارج الشركة أصحابها already reflect all of these
+
+161
+00:12:31,380 --> 00:12:37,240
+available information okay a forecast تنبؤ a
+
+162
+00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,500
+forecast about favorable future performance leads
+
+163
+00:12:40,500 --> 00:12:44,760
+to favorable current performance التوقع لحدوث
+
+164
+00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:49,760
+إنجازات في المستقبل as market participants rush to
+
+165
+00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:53,480
+trade on a new information يعني الأسعار بتعكس
+
+166
+00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,140
+المعلومات حتى المعلومات المستقبلية اللي لسه ما
+
+167
+00:12:56,140 --> 00:13:01,460
+صارتش فلما تصير هذه المعلومات المستقبلية تحدث ف
+
+168
+00:13:01,460 --> 00:13:04,160
+already the financial market market reflected this
+
+169
+00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:11,020
+بكون ال financial market بعرف الكلمة okay as
+
+170
+00:13:11,020 --> 00:13:13,740
+market participants rush to trade on a new
+
+171
+00:13:13,740 --> 00:13:17,550
+information يعني ال market participants الناس اللي
+
+172
+00:13:17,550 --> 00:13:20,410
+مشاركين في السوق و بيعملوا trading في السوق
+
+173
+00:13:20,410 --> 00:13:24,610
+بيحاولوا ان هم to rush on understanding the new
+
+174
+00:13:24,610 --> 00:13:28,230
+information and because this information .. this
+
+175
+00:13:28,230 --> 00:13:33,150
+new information has different interpretation يعني
+
+176
+00:13:33,150 --> 00:13:35,970
+حتى المعلومة الواحدة لها different interpretation
+
+177
+00:13:35,970 --> 00:13:41,790
+تفسيرات مختلفة يعني خلينا نحكي مثلا company A want
+
+178
+00:13:41,790 --> 00:13:48,480
+to take over company B مثلا company A عاملة take
+
+179
+00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:53,060
+over مع company B أو
+
+180
+00:13:53,060 --> 00:13:57,340
+بدهم يعملوا merging with company B فيه هيكون الناس
+
+181
+00:13:57,340 --> 00:14:02,620
+مقسمين، الناس هيحكوا okay this is good for company
+
+182
+00:14:02,620 --> 00:14:05,880
+other people say this is bad for company there is
+
+183
+00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,240
+no agreement between the investors or market
+
+184
+00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:15,100
+participants whether this merge ممكن يدفع إلى مستقبل
+
+185
+00:14:15,100 --> 00:14:19,820
+جيد للشركة أو يدفع إلى مستقبل جيد للشركة، ليس هناك
+
+186
+00:14:19,820 --> 00:14:25,740
+اتفاق، لهذا السبب اتفاق الأسعار بين المستخدمين
+
+187
+00:14:25,740 --> 00:14:30,880
+الأسعار بتعكس هذا الاتفاق، يعني لأن بعض المستخدمين
+
+188
+00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:36,920
+مع الاختلاف، والآخرين ضد الاختلاف،
+
+189
+00:14:41,380 --> 00:14:45,740
+Prices change until expected returns are exactly
+
+190
+00:14:45,740 --> 00:14:51,420
+commensurate with risk الأسعار بتبدأ أو العواقب
+
+191
+00:14:51,420 --> 00:14:56,620
+بتبدأ تتغير حتى يصير في مكافأة بين العقل و المخاطر
+
+192
+00:14:56,620 --> 00:14:58,820
+خلينا نشوف how this works
+
+193
+00:15:03,870 --> 00:15:06,550
+طبعا احنا we are talking in the efficient market
+
+194
+00:15:06,550 --> 00:15:09,590
+hypothesis يعني بنذكركوا بس احنا مركزين على ال
+
+195
+00:15:09,590 --> 00:15:14,370
+efficient market الأسواق المتعملية الكبيرة طبعا
+
+196
+00:15:14,370 --> 00:15:17,050
+الكل بيعرف this chart this is security market line
+
+197
+00:15:17,050 --> 00:15:21,710
+okay some people they call this كذلك كذلك ال asset
+
+198
+00:15:21,710 --> 00:15:24,650
+pricing model يعني هذا security market line خط
+
+199
+00:15:24,650 --> 00:15:29,830
+السوق حكينا انه all securities are represented in
+
+200
+00:15:29,830 --> 00:15:32,510
+the security market line securities reflecting the
+
+201
+00:15:32,510 --> 00:15:40,650
+risk and return بتعكس العقد المحاصر okay let's
+
+202
+00:15:40,650 --> 00:15:46,390
+consider this case خلينا ناخد ال case هذه لو جينا
+
+203
+00:15:46,390 --> 00:15:54,870
+احنا company A بدتعمل take over to company C نحكي
+
+204
+00:15:54,870 --> 00:15:59,790
+ان هو هي company A this is company A take over يعني
+
+205
+00:15:59,790 --> 00:16:05,770
+أنك تسيطر أو تعمل managing مع company C مع company
+
+206
+00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:12,330
+C okay طيب
+
+207
+00:16:12,330 --> 00:16:18,670
+هلأ قبل ال take over really take over قبل ال take
+
+208
+00:16:18,670 --> 00:16:25,030
+over A has this risk and has this return just
+
+209
+00:16:25,030 --> 00:16:31,320
+recap it أي عند هاي المخاطر وهذا العادي هذا قبل ال
+
+210
+00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:35,520
+declaration or the announcement of the takeover
+
+211
+00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:40,900
+قبل ما هم يعملوا قبل السيطرة الوطنية now today for
+
+212
+00:16:40,900 --> 00:16:45,680
+instance they may announce on the takeover
+
+213
+00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:50,280
+decision اليوم أعلنوا عن ال takeover decision what
+
+214
+00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,460
+is going indeed we have a new information لدينا
+
+215
+00:16:53,460 --> 00:16:56,340
+معلومات جديدة okay
+
+216
+00:17:01,090 --> 00:17:05,130
+so because we have a new information it means we
+
+217
+00:17:05,130 --> 00:17:08,670
+adding up to the company a new risk احنا ضفنا
+
+218
+00:17:08,670 --> 00:17:14,210
+مخاطر جديدة okay so the risk is moving from this
+
+219
+00:17:14,210 --> 00:17:20,510
+point to this point so
+
+220
+00:17:20,510 --> 00:17:21,310
+in this case
+
+221
+00:17:25,740 --> 00:17:29,020
+and because there is increase in risk لأنه في
+
+222
+00:17:29,020 --> 00:17:33,560
+زيادة في المخاطر so the market is commensurate the
+
+223
+00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:40,980
+risk or compensate the risk بكافئ المخاطر يعني
+
+224
+00:17:40,980 --> 00:17:45,320
+لأنه في المخاطر زيادة أكيد حسيب فينا العوائد حتزيد
+
+225
+00:17:50,990 --> 00:17:55,410
+so in this case the return increase so because the
+
+226
+00:17:55,410 --> 00:18:01,170
+increase in risk there is increase in return لأنه
+
+227
+00:18:01,170 --> 00:18:07,170
+زادت المخاطر زادت العوائد ليش زادت المخاطر because
+
+228
+00:18:07,170 --> 00:18:11,750
+of the new information why the new information
+
+229
+00:18:11,750 --> 00:18:14,650
+because this new information is unpredictable
+
+230
+00:18:17,710 --> 00:18:21,570
+yes and because it is unpredictable it is
+
+231
+00:18:21,570 --> 00:18:25,490
+uncertain uncertain
+
+232
+00:18:25,490 --> 00:18:29,910
+يعني مش مؤكدة what is the implications of this new
+
+233
+00:18:29,910 --> 00:18:33,290
+information on the price لأن احنا مابنعرفش شو
+
+234
+00:18:33,290 --> 00:18:36,430
+بتأثر هذه المعلومات على ال price because the
+
+235
+00:18:36,430 --> 00:18:39,230
+market is because the market follows the random
+
+236
+00:18:39,230 --> 00:18:49,220
+walk لأنه الطريقة عشوائية لأن
+
+237
+00:18:49,220 --> 00:18:51,660
+ال efficient market is efficient لازم يكافئ الناس
+
+238
+00:18:51,660 --> 00:18:54,700
+أن there is a new information it means there is a
+
+239
+00:18:54,700 --> 00:18:58,380
+new risk and because there is a new risk as you
+
+240
+00:18:58,380 --> 00:19:03,200
+see in this in the chart it should be a new return
+
+241
+00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:08,280
+so in this case as you observe here A will move
+
+242
+00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,670
+from this point إلى هذه النقطة.
+
+243
+00:19:14,390 --> 00:19:21,770
+لذلك الآن A في الأكثر لديه أكثر فرصة و أكثر عودة.
+
+244
+00:19:23,970 --> 00:19:31,050
+حسنا؟ لأن المعلومات الجديدة. إذا كانت السوق غير
+
+245
+00:19:31,050 --> 00:19:35,650
+إيجابية، كون حذرا هنا، لأنني الآن أتكلم عن سوقين
+
+246
+00:19:35,650 --> 00:19:42,240
+إيجابيين. إذا كان السوق غير إيجابي، أين السعر أو أين
+
+247
+00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:49,200
+حركته؟ ربما في الأسفل ربما في الأعلى. فالأسفل يعني
+
+248
+00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:53,400
+أنه يوجد تغيير في السعر لأننا نعمل في عوامل
+
+249
+00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:58,000
+efficient market و market بإيجابية تتعامل مع الرغبة
+
+250
+00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:02,100
+والعادة. لكن في عوامل efficient market يمكننا أن 
+
+251
+00:20:02,100 --> 00:20:09,090
+نلاقي we may observe ممكن احنا نلاحظ the A is going
+
+252
+00:20:09,090 --> 00:20:14,150
+down or going up so in this case the prices are
+
+253
+00:20:14,150 --> 00:20:17,810
+inefficient عشان هيك الأسعار بتكون inefficient
+
+254
+00:20:17,810 --> 00:20:24,490
+غير كفوء efficient market it means all of the
+
+255
+00:20:24,490 --> 00:20:29,210
+securities must be located on the efficient line
+
+256
+00:20:29,210 --> 00:20:33,010
+market بتحكي إنه لازم كل ال securities كل الأوراق
+
+257
+00:20:33,010 --> 00:20:37,510
+المالية تقع على على خط السوق reflecting the risk
+
+258
+00:20:37,510 --> 00:20:45,470
+and return واحنا حكينا مثال في ناس مثلا هنا بغزة
+
+259
+00:20:45,470 --> 00:20:51,990
+هان بدهم يتاجروا مثلا بالأوراق المالية فبدهم يدفعوا مثلا
+
+260
+00:20:51,990 --> 00:20:57,860
+مية دولار أو مية ألف دولار وبدهُم يخسروا بنحكي لهم
+
+261
+00:20:57,860 --> 00:21:00,960
+هذا this is a stupidity to tell this من الغباء
+
+262
+00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,080
+نحكيه بكلام هذا because if you want to invest in
+
+263
+00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:08,700
+high risk investments you … you have to accept
+
+264
+00:21:08,700 --> 00:21:14,640
+the risk and هدول الناس بعدين لما ييجوا بالوطن
+
+265
+00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,760
+ويقولوا لك اه وش صار وش جرى واحنا نصبوا علينا
+
+266
+00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,700
+ويقولوا لأ ما نصبناش عليك أنت because you accept
+
+267
+00:21:21,700 --> 00:21:26,200
+the risk you accept this return you have to accept the
+
+268
+00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:32,240
+rest يعني إن أنت بدك عائد عالي okay بدك تعمل مخاطر
+
+269
+00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:36,300
+عالية مش إن أنت تستثمر ولما مثلا ينهدم النفق أو
+
+270
+00:21:36,300 --> 00:21:40,780
+كذا تصيح وأنا ماليش وأنا بترشو okay هذا كلام
+
+271
+00:21:40,780 --> 00:21:45,680
+okay so this is the investment هذا الاستثمار
+
+272
+00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:51,520
+مستحيل إن احنا نيجي نستثمر بشغل عائد عالي ومافيش
+
+273
+00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,730
+فيه مخاطر أو مخاطرها متخفضة there is no way if we
+
+274
+00:21:55,730 --> 00:22:00,470
+have this if we have this it means the market is
+
+275
+00:22:00,470 --> 00:22:04,750
+inefficient إذا احنا عند الكلام هذا إن عندنا
+
+276
+00:22:04,750 --> 00:22:09,950
+مخاطر عالية وعائد عالي ومخاطر مخفضة معناه الكلام
+
+277
+00:22:09,950 --> 00:22:18,310
+the market is inefficient خلينا
+
+278
+00:22:18,310 --> 00:22:25,690
+نشوف لو احنا موجودين هنا تبقى عالية لو احنا موجودين
+
+279
+00:22:25,690 --> 00:22:30,990
+هنا ايش بقى الكلام هذا ال risk المفروض يكون له هذا
+
+280
+00:22:30,990 --> 00:22:36,470
+العائد يعني هذا ال risk لو احنا كملنا لازم العائد
+
+281
+00:22:36,470 --> 00:22:46,870
+الخاص به يكون احنا بناخد مخاطر منخفضة مع عائد عالي
+
+282
+00:22:46,870 --> 00:22:49,230
+المفروض هذه المخاطر تكون عائدها بهذا الشكل
+
+283
+00:22:52,120 --> 00:22:58,220
+نفس الشغل هان نتحمل احنا ناخد عائد عالي عند نفس
+
+284
+00:22:58,220 --> 00:23:02,320
+نقطة مخاطر فلازم هذا ينجي على الخط هذا وهذا يرتفع
+
+285
+00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,360
+على الخط طبعا هذا بيسموه under price وهذا بيسميه
+
+286
+00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:11,340
+over price طيب الناس
+
+287
+00:23:11,340 --> 00:23:16,120
+بيعطيني معلومات جديدة السوق كافة لو كان معلومات
+
+288
+00:23:16,120 --> 00:23:20,380
+جديدة فيه وهذه المعلومات المفروض تكون
+
+289
+00:23:20,380 --> 00:23:25,880
+unpredictable فاهمين علي المعلومات أولا لازم تكون
+
+290
+00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:30,060
+unpredictable because it is unpredictable the
+
+291
+00:23:30,060 --> 00:23:34,640
+price will end unpredictable too لأن المعلومات غير
+
+292
+00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:39,620
+متوقعة كمان بيصير ال price سلوك الأسعار غير متوقع
+
+293
+00:23:39,620 --> 00:23:44,900
+طيب لأنه عايشين في حالة … حالة ال uncertainty
+
+294
+00:23:44,900 --> 00:23:52,220
+عالم التأكد يعني مش متوقعين so we face up a higher
+
+295
+00:23:52,220 --> 00:23:58,360
+risk بنواجه مخاطر عالية because of this high risk
+
+296
+00:23:58,360 --> 00:24:04,060
+the market compensate us by higher return والسوق
+
+297
+00:24:04,060 --> 00:24:09,640
+بيكافئنا بإيش بأعلى لأنه اتحملنا مخاطر أكثر okay
+
+298
+00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:15,760
+so where is the wrong then؟ وين كان الغلط؟ فضلي لا
+
+299
+00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:20,620
+السؤال مفهوش inefficient
+
+300
+00:24:20,620 --> 00:24:23,180
+inefficient يعني غير كفوء
+
+301
+00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:35,200
+Okay يعني اللخص الكلام اللي حكيناه حكينا إن ال …
+
+302
+00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,620
+في ال … في ال efficient markets في السوق المالي
+
+303
+00:24:37,620 --> 00:24:42,100
+الكفوء the prices follow a random walk الأسعار تمشي
+
+304
+00:24:42,100 --> 00:24:47,670
+بطريقة عشوائية بغض النظر مين اللي عنده معلومات سواء
+
+305
+00:24:47,670 --> 00:24:49,610
+كان معلومات private information ولا public
+
+306
+00:24:49,610 --> 00:24:52,550
+information are the same حتى اللي عندهم private
+
+307
+00:24:52,550 --> 00:24:55,310
+information no longer use this information بيقدروش
+
+308
+00:24:55,310 --> 00:24:58,530
+يستخدموا هذه المعلومات okay because the market is
+
+309
+00:24:58,530 --> 00:25:04,950
+efficient لأن ال market is efficient السوق نفسه
+
+310
+00:25:04,950 --> 00:25:08,750
+لما بيصير إن معلومات جديدة في مخاطر جديدة وبالتالي
+
+311
+00:25:08,750 --> 00:25:13,630
+هو بي … بي … بيعوض الناس بعائد أعلى بسبب المخاطر
+
+312
+00:25:13,630 --> 00:25:17,690
+الجديدة اللي متحملة إذا كان السوق المالي غير كفوء
+
+313
+00:25:17,690 --> 00:25:25,400
+السوق المالي غير كفوء ممكن نتنبأ بأسعار okay ممكن و
+
+314
+00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,380
+كمان السوق مش هيكون فيه a trade-off between the
+
+315
+00:25:28,380 --> 00:25:31,800
+risk and return و السوق مش هيكون فيه مكافأة بين
+
+316
+00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,860
+العائد والمخاطر فهيكون في عندي شغلة اسمها miss
+
+317
+00:25:34,860 --> 00:25:39,100
+pricing اللي هو خطأ في التسعير وكمان في ال
+
+318
+00:25:39,100 --> 00:25:42,140
+inefficient market في الأسواق المالية الغير كفوءة
+
+319
+00:25:42,140 --> 00:25:48,980
+الأسعار لا تعكس كل المعلومات okay لا تعكس كل
+
+320
+00:25:48,980 --> 00:25:51,740
+المعلومات okay
+
+321
+00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:58,920
+نطلع على الشكل اللي موجود هنا look at this chart
+
+322
+00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:04,960
+this chart هاي دراسة انعملت في ال 81 انعملت على
+
+323
+00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:13,300
+شركات صار فيها take over طبعا اطلعوا على الشكل هيك
+
+324
+00:26:13,300 --> 00:26:17,240
+وركزولي في الشكل خدوا يعني الدقيقة تشوفوا الشكل
+
+325
+00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:26,900
+اطلعوا في الشكل اللي هيك بعين ناقضة يعني try to
+
+326
+00:26:26,900 --> 00:26:44,220
+criticize this chart okay
+
+327
+00:26:44,220 --> 00:26:50,070
+طيب في حد في عنده comments على الشكل البنات بالورا؟
+
+328
+00:26:50,070 --> 00:26:56,750
+في حد عنده comments على الشكل؟ رأي خليني أشوف مين
+
+329
+00:26:56,750 --> 00:27:03,830
+بالورا؟ بنات؟ في عندكوا رأي في الشكل؟
+
+330
+00:27:03,830 --> 00:27:10,890
+البنات الجانب هذا طلعوا الشكل واضح حلو
+
+331
+00:27:10,890 --> 00:27:15,650
+الشكل ماهناعرفين حلو الشكل بس what it means ايش
+
+332
+00:27:15,650 --> 00:27:25,620
+معنى الشكل؟ اه خليني أشوف ايش الشكل يعني وين
+
+333
+00:27:25,620 --> 00:27:32,340
+المحاطرة شوف أنت قرأت ايش مكتوب هاي
+
+334
+00:27:32,340 --> 00:27:34,700
+ال abnormal return هي ال abnormal return هي الحتة
+
+335
+00:27:34,700 --> 00:27:39,400
+هذه اه هي الحتة دي abnormal return before takeover
+
+336
+00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,460
+attempts target companies هذي ماخدين احنا طلع
+
+337
+00:27:42,460 --> 00:27:47,080
+فاطمة عندك اتفضلي احكيلي أشوف
+
+338
+00:27:51,470 --> 00:27:58,590
+where is company number one hand
+
+339
+00:27:58,590 --> 00:28:05,050
+days hand days okay ال
+
+340
+00:28:05,050 --> 00:28:11,230
+abnormal it means okay عنا الأيام هال 135 سنة و
+
+341
+00:28:11,230 --> 00:28:14,750
+125 سنة ايش يعني سالب؟ ايش يعني سالب؟ قبل ال take
+
+342
+00:28:14,750 --> 00:28:17,590
+over قبل ال take over يعني السفر ايش بتوعه؟ هي
+
+343
+00:28:17,590 --> 00:28:20,310
+يعني ال take over هي the day of the announcement
+
+344
+00:28:20,310 --> 00:28:23,470
+of take over تبوا يا بنات يعني أنا ممكن في ال
+
+345
+00:28:23,470 --> 00:28:27,050
+exam اجيبلكم شغل زي هاي explain what the chart
+
+346
+00:28:27,050 --> 00:28:33,070
+means ايش بتعني ال chart؟ طبعا السفر هو ال
+
+347
+00:28:33,070 --> 00:28:38,170
+announcement day السفر هو يوم ما تم الاعلان عن ال
+
+348
+00:28:38,170 --> 00:28:41,950
+take over قبل كان هنا انهيار الشركة انهيار مات
+
+349
+00:28:41,950 --> 00:28:46,050
+انهارت الشركة؟ قبل ال service متأكدة أنتِ؟ نعم
+
+350
+00:28:46,050 --> 00:28:50,210
+العواقب هنا قبل السفر يعني ما صارت بعد ما ساعدنا
+
+351
+00:28:50,210 --> 00:28:53,210
+اللي هو السيطرة على الشركة صارت العواقب كثير عالية
+
+352
+00:28:53,210 --> 00:28:57,810
+مين بحكي غير هيك؟ تشوف فضل
+
+353
+00:28:59,690 --> 00:29:03,610
+طبعا هي مش شركة واحدة هي مجموعة شركات تعملها take
+
+354
+00:29:03,610 --> 00:29:10,750
+over احنا
+
+355
+00:29:10,750 --> 00:29:12,810
+ماحكيناش عن miss price احنا حكينا بس عن ال
+
+356
+00:29:12,810 --> 00:29:16,110
+abnormal return حسبنا ال abnormal return لكل شركة
+
+357
+00:29:16,110 --> 00:29:22,710
+طيب في حد عنده شغلانة وخرن فضل
+
+358
+00:29:22,710 --> 00:29:26,290
+يا بنات اسمه اهان اسمه اهان
+
+359
+00:29:29,650 --> 00:29:34,210
+Okay في فجوة صح كلامك ايش هذا نسميه؟ في فجوة لأ
+
+360
+00:29:34,210 --> 00:29:40,790
+هذا اسمه jump صارت قفزة jump وهذه jump why there
+
+361
+00:29:40,790 --> 00:29:46,650
+is jump؟ this is unpredictable غير متنبأ فيه طيب
+
+362
+00:29:46,650 --> 00:29:55,690
+خليني بس نطلع أهم لو احنا طلعنا باليوم ال 30 يعني
+
+363
+00:29:55,690 --> 00:30:00,420
+30 يوم قبل ال … قبل ال take over كان ال abnormal
+
+364
+00:30:00,420 --> 00:30:07,360
+return بال minus okay كان بال minus يعني لو احنا
+
+365
+00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:12,060
+أخدنا المنطقة هذه abnormal return كان هنا بعدين
+
+366
+00:30:12,060 --> 00:30:20,560
+زاد طيب هلأ نطلع شوي شوي بدأ يزيد زي ما أنتم
+
+367
+00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:26,750
+شايفين طلع لعند يوم السفر يوم الاعلان طب ما أنا اتكلم
+
+368
+00:30:26,750 --> 00:30:30,550
+بيوم السفر قبل يوم السفر في كان ناس تعرف إن there
+
+369
+00:30:30,550 --> 00:30:37,870
+is … it was a take over مين هم هدول الناس؟ مين
+
+370
+00:30:37,870 --> 00:30:42,350
+هم؟ اعطوني مين هم اللي كان يعرفوا فيه صار leak لل
+
+371
+00:30:42,350 --> 00:30:48,690
+information leak يعني تسرب لمعلومات مين هم ال …
+
+372
+00:30:48,690 --> 00:30:53,050
+مصاحب مين؟ شرحناهم ال board of directors وال
+
+373
+00:30:53,050 --> 00:30:55,690
+executives وفي ناس كمان غيرهم من خارج الشركة
+
+374
+00:30:55,690 --> 00:31:01,910
+بيعرفوا من هما ال specialist ال specialist اللي
+
+375
+00:31:01,910 --> 00:31:06,270
+صار leak لل information صار
+
+376
+00:31:06,270 --> 00:31:11,700
+فيه زيادة في الـ abnormal return تمام؟ لما وصلت لعند
+
+377
+00:31:11,700 --> 00:31:16,300
+هذا الحد أثر .. أثر الـ insiders طبعا هذا عند .. في
+
+378
+00:31:16,300 --> 00:31:19,280
+سنة الواحد وتمانين وتمانية كان هذا الشغل بعد
+
+379
+00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,620
+هيك صار يمنعوا الـ insiders to trade on the private
+
+380
+00:31:22,620 --> 00:31:25,380
+information صار يمنعوهم يتاجروا في المعلومات 
+
+381
+00:31:25,380 --> 00:31:29,180
+الخاصة ممنوع يشتري و يبيعوا في الشركة صار عندهم ..
+
+382
+00:31:29,180 --> 00:31:31,980
+صار في معلومات هلأ صار في jump
+
+383
+00:31:38,150 --> 00:31:42,330
+فجأة jumped لما .. مجرد ما طلع الرجال و حكى we
+
+384
+00:31:42,330 --> 00:31:49,470
+announce that the for instance IBM merged with for 
+
+385
+00:31:49,470 --> 00:31:53,110
+instance General Motors مجرد ما حكى الكلمة هذه
+
+386
+00:31:53,110 --> 00:31:57,690
+مباشرة الـ .. الـ .. الـ abnormal ارتفع من من مقطة
+
+387
+00:31:57,690 --> 00:32:02,670
+إلى أخرى فجأة أول شيء الـ announcement ماحدش
+
+388
+00:32:02,670 --> 00:32:07,530
+بيتوقعه يعني الإعلان ماحدش توقعه يعني هذه المعلومات
+
+389
+00:32:07,530 --> 00:32:11,130
+الجديدة ماحدش توقعها في السوق تاني شيء ماحدش توقع
+
+390
+00:32:11,130 --> 00:32:16,890
+أنه الأسعار أو الـ return هترتفع بهذا الشكل okay
+
+391
+00:32:16,890 --> 00:32:19,810
+اللقاء الجاي بنكمل هذا الموضوع
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..627165ae9f6b6f768d2e369dae1f042d31cfaa9c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1564 @@
+1
+00:00:20,810 --> 00:00:26,690
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا اليوم بنحكي عن chapter
+
+2
+00:00:26,690 --> 00:00:30,810
+eleven أو chapter four or chapter eleven, the same
+
+3
+00:00:30,810 --> 00:00:38,090
+ال chapter الرابع تمام حسب الخطة بتاعتنا و سابقا
+
+4
+00:00:38,090 --> 00:00:40,890
+كنا نحكي عن ال chapter one و chapter two و chapter
+
+5
+00:00:40,890 --> 00:00:46,050
+three كنا نحكي عن ال securities and how we trade
+
+6
+00:00:46,050 --> 00:00:49,840
+on these securitiesوكيف احنا بنتاجر بهذه ال
+
+7
+00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:56,160
+securities يعني الأدوات المالية اليوم بدنا to ask
+
+8
+00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,140
+a big question whether the pricing system is
+
+9
+00:00:59,140 --> 00:01:03,880
+efficient or not يعني هل التسعير هو efficient كفوء
+
+10
+00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:08,420
+ولا لأ يعني هل الأسواق المالية كفوء او لأ خليني
+
+11
+00:01:08,420 --> 00:01:12,340
+أدى بالسؤال الأول اللي احنا سألناه اللي هو ال
+
+12
+00:01:12,340 --> 00:01:17,510
+pricingلو كان عندى انا سعر لشركة تمانتاش يعني مثلا
+
+13
+00:01:17,510 --> 00:01:21,870
+نحكي ياهو شرق سعر سهم ياهو اتنين و عشرين دولار
+
+14
+00:01:21,870 --> 00:01:26,550
+okay اتنين
+
+15
+00:01:26,550 --> 00:01:30,490
+و عشرين دولار the question is does this price
+
+16
+00:01:30,490 --> 00:01:36,090
+reflectThe actual performance of Yahoo or not يعني
+
+17
+00:01:36,090 --> 00:01:40,950
+هل 22 دولار بتعكس الوضع الحقيقي لياهو this is the
+
+18
+00:01:40,950 --> 00:01:45,730
+question if إذا كان 22 دولار بتعكس الوضع الحقيقي
+
+19
+00:01:45,730 --> 00:01:50,850
+لياهو مع كلام ال pricing system is efficient يعني
+
+20
+00:01:50,850 --> 00:01:52,010
+بيكون التسعير كفوء
+
+21
+00:01:54,630 --> 00:01:58,750
+الـ 22 لا يتفكّر بإدارة الـ Yahoo الواقعي، هذا
+
+22
+00:01:58,750 --> 00:02:05,930
+يعني أن نظام الأسعار غير كفوء ما
+
+23
+00:02:05,930 --> 00:02:10,790
+هي المعاملات التي تتجارب إذا كانت الأسعار مفيدة أو
+
+24
+00:02:10,790 --> 00:02:15,790
+غير مفيدة؟ يعني إيش هي ال parameters أو المعلميات
+
+25
+00:02:15,790 --> 00:02:19,470
+اللي من خلالها بيحكي أن نظام الأسعار مفيد أو غير
+
+26
+00:02:19,470 --> 00:02:26,080
+مفيد؟one of the main parameters the information
+
+27
+00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:34,260
+المعلومات information we divided information into
+
+28
+00:02:34,260 --> 00:02:37,400
+two main types private information and public
+
+29
+00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:43,440
+information معلومات خاصة ومعلومات عامة generally
+
+30
+00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:48,160
+speaking the board of directors and the executives
+
+31
+00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:54,840
+keep the private information يعني عادة بيكون عندهم
+
+32
+00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,880
+ال private information these people known as
+
+33
+00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:02,700
+insiders these
+
+34
+00:03:02,700 --> 00:03:07,200
+people known as insiders be careful we don't mean
+
+35
+00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:13,540
+that insiders like lower management levels or the
+
+36
+00:03:13,540 --> 00:03:17,500
+normal employees مابنعنيش بال insiders هم الموظفين
+
+37
+00:03:17,500 --> 00:03:21,440
+بتوع الشركةbecause sometimes these employees are
+
+38
+00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,660
+even far away from the decision making process
+
+39
+00:03:24,660 --> 00:03:28,760
+يعني هدول الموظفين بيكونوا بعيدين عن اتخاذ القرار
+
+40
+00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,940
+for instance as I gave you example earlier about
+
+41
+00:03:31,940 --> 00:03:37,150
+about the company of Toyotawhen Toyota design a
+
+42
+00:03:37,150 --> 00:03:40,310
+new generation of their car a very limited number
+
+43
+00:03:40,310 --> 00:03:44,010
+of employees know about this يعني لما شركة Toyota
+
+44
+00:03:44,010 --> 00:03:47,770
+بتقرر الجيل الجديد تبع السيارات بتوعهم عدد محدود
+
+45
+00:03:47,770 --> 00:03:52,430
+من الموظفين I mean the big people in Toyota they
+
+46
+00:03:52,430 --> 00:03:56,340
+know thiseven Samsung even Apple نفس الشغلة
+
+47
+00:03:56,340 --> 00:03:59,420
+Samsung و نفس الشغلة Apple even in the local
+
+48
+00:03:59,420 --> 00:04:02,800
+companies حتى الشركات المحلية يعني very very very
+
+49
+00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,720
+limited employees know about the strategic
+
+50
+00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:11,260
+decision of the business فهدول نسميهم ال insider's
+
+51
+00:04:11,260 --> 00:04:16,200
+other people known as outsiders ال outsiders
+
+52
+00:04:20,350 --> 00:04:24,050
+outsiders هم الناس ال public الناس العاديين عندهم
+
+53
+00:04:24,050 --> 00:04:26,770
+معلومات عامة عن الشركة public information public
+
+54
+00:04:26,770 --> 00:04:30,330
+information is historical information ال public
+
+55
+00:04:30,330 --> 00:04:32,930
+information هي معلومات عامة historical information
+
+56
+00:04:32,930 --> 00:04:35,310
+ال people already know about this information
+
+57
+00:04:35,310 --> 00:04:40,190
+والناس already بيعرفوا أن هاي المعلومات if the
+
+58
+00:04:40,190 --> 00:04:43,270
+price let's go back to the price if the price
+
+59
+00:04:43,270 --> 00:04:46,840
+reflect all of the available informationwhether
+
+60
+00:04:46,840 --> 00:04:50,980
+private information or public information so the
+
+61
+00:04:50,980 --> 00:04:54,320
+market is efficient إذا كان السعر بيعكس كل
+
+62
+00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,720
+المعلومات سواء كانت معلومات داخلية أو معلومات
+
+63
+00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:02,260
+خارجية أي معلومات so the price is efficient السعر
+
+64
+00:05:02,260 --> 00:05:09,020
+بيكون efficient كفو okaythis lead us to talk about
+
+65
+00:05:09,020 --> 00:05:12,580
+the efficient market hypothesis which is the main
+
+66
+00:05:12,580 --> 00:05:16,640
+objective of this chapter هذا بيخلّينا نحكي على
+
+67
+00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:24,120
+النظرية أو الفرابية من الأسواق الدولية the first
+
+68
+00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:25,340
+people talked about this
+
+69
+00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:51,070
+ماحدش بيستطيع يتنبأ الأسعار where is the price is
+
+70
+00:05:51,070 --> 00:05:58,330
+going يعني بالأهم طرحأو أهم فرضية بالأسواق المالية
+
+71
+00:05:58,330 --> 00:06:04,570
+الكفوة انه ماحد بتنبأ where is the price is going
+
+72
+00:06:04,570 --> 00:06:11,110
+okay for instance today we are in 23rd of March
+
+73
+00:06:11,110 --> 00:06:19,690
+احنا في 23 مارس my question is nowtomorrow this or
+
+74
+00:06:19,690 --> 00:06:23,410
+on monday the market will open can you predict
+
+75
+00:06:23,410 --> 00:06:26,410
+where is the price is going going up or going down
+
+76
+00:06:26,410 --> 00:06:30,550
+and to what extent you can predict on this if the
+
+77
+00:06:30,550 --> 00:06:33,430
+market is efficient no one can predict where is
+
+78
+00:06:33,430 --> 00:06:39,710
+the market is going is a candle why because the
+
+79
+00:06:39,710 --> 00:06:44,200
+prices already reflect all of the informationلأن
+
+80
+00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,460
+الأسعار أصلا بتعرف كل المعلومات ال prices are
+
+81
+00:06:47,460 --> 00:06:54,600
+sensitive الأسعار هي حساسة كتير وما ياخد بعين
+
+82
+00:06:54,600 --> 00:07:01,980
+الاعتبار كل المعلومات okay and
+
+83
+00:07:01,980 --> 00:07:05,440
+based on this the price follow a random walk
+
+84
+00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:13,480
+الأسعار تمشي random walkRandom walk تمشي بطريقة
+
+85
+00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:17,220
+عشوائية there
+
+86
+00:07:17,220 --> 00:07:22,240
+is no prediction on where is the price is going if
+
+87
+00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:26,760
+anyone in this universe argue that he or she can
+
+88
+00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,780
+predict the price don't believe him or her اذا حد
+
+89
+00:07:30,780 --> 00:07:33,780
+في العالم كله بيحكيك وانا بقدر اتنبأ السعر و انا
+
+90
+00:07:33,780 --> 00:07:37,680
+رايح وين جاي ماتصدقوهش انا بحكي عن ال efficient
+
+91
+00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:38,240
+markets
+
+92
+00:07:41,580 --> 00:07:43,800
+في ال efficient market في الأسواق المالية الكفوية
+
+93
+00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:47,940
+there is no way any people to predict where is the
+
+94
+00:07:47,940 --> 00:07:51,980
+price is going maybe by chance they can do this
+
+95
+00:07:51,980 --> 00:07:56,780
+ممكن بالصدفة يعرفوا but the prices reflect itself
+
+96
+00:07:56,780 --> 00:08:00,160
+and change their routes ممكن الأسعار نفسها سوف
+
+97
+00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:04,740
+تتغير مسارها and this is .. we will talk about
+
+98
+00:08:04,740 --> 00:08:07,020
+this in behavioral finance لما نحكي عن behavioral
+
+99
+00:08:07,020 --> 00:08:13,330
+financeالسلوك .. السلوك المال او السلوك التمويلى
+
+100
+00:08:13,330 --> 00:08:18,730
+هنشوف ان ال price بتغير
+
+101
+00:08:18,730 --> 00:08:25,530
+توجهاتها حسب ال investors ال prices are as likely
+
+102
+00:08:25,530 --> 00:08:31,710
+to go up as to go down on any particular day يعني
+
+103
+00:08:31,710 --> 00:08:38,160
+if you ask me to buy or to sellإذا بتسألوني buy or
+
+104
+00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,140
+sell I say to you it doesn't matter to buy or to
+
+105
+00:08:41,140 --> 00:08:47,440
+sell مش مهم buy ولا sell because if you say buy 50
+
+106
+00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:51,680
+% buy and 50% sell no one can predict on this
+
+107
+00:08:51,680 --> 00:08:56,080
+because the market is floating at the moment so
+
+108
+00:08:56,080 --> 00:09:00,580
+prices are as likely to go up as to go down يعني
+
+109
+00:09:00,580 --> 00:09:04,500
+بالنسبة ما هي بتطلع هي بتنزل يعني if we are here
+
+110
+00:09:05,260 --> 00:09:10,080
+and you buy or you bought don't regret that you
+
+111
+00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:14,900
+bought and if you sold don't regret that you sold
+
+112
+00:09:14,900 --> 00:09:18,020
+يعني إذا إنتوا اشتريتوا ما تدوموش و إذا إنتوا
+
+113
+00:09:18,020 --> 00:09:21,700
+بيبتموش اشتريتوا ما تدوموش because buying and
+
+114
+00:09:21,700 --> 00:09:27,660
+selling have similar weight إنه نفس الوزن this is
+
+115
+00:09:27,660 --> 00:09:30,540
+in the efficient markets هذا بال efficient markets
+
+116
+00:09:30,540 --> 00:09:35,420
+even if you have private informationحتى لو كان
+
+117
+00:09:35,420 --> 00:09:39,860
+عندك معلومات داخلية، why؟ ليش لو عندنا معلومات
+
+118
+00:09:39,860 --> 00:09:43,220
+داخلية حتى ما بنقدرش نستفيد منها؟ because the
+
+119
+00:09:43,220 --> 00:09:46,740
+price in the efficient market is already reflected
+
+120
+00:09:46,740 --> 00:09:50,940
+in the new information لأن الأسعار في الأسواق
+
+121
+00:09:50,940 --> 00:09:54,340
+المالية الكافة و أقابلة بتعكس المعلومات أصلا قبل
+
+122
+00:09:54,340 --> 00:10:00,900
+ما تحصل في السوق because the price predicts the
+
+123
+00:10:00,900 --> 00:10:05,960
+futureلأن الأسعار تتوقع المستقبل هي is like a
+
+124
+00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:11,120
+human being زي كأنها الإنسان okay predict the
+
+125
+00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:15,600
+future so if the price predict the future and you
+
+126
+00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:19,460
+have a new information in the prediction process
+
+127
+00:10:19,460 --> 00:10:21,880
+the price already considered the new information
+
+128
+00:10:23,140 --> 00:10:26,880
+this is a philosophical point of view، هاي طريقة
+
+129
+00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:30,880
+فلسفية، بتحكوا بالأسعار، إذا كان الأسعار نفسها
+
+130
+00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:35,000
+بتتنبأ للمستقبل، فأي معلومة جديدة، أخطر السوق
+
+131
+00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:40,380
+بيكون ماخدها بالإعتبار، okay؟
+
+132
+00:10:40,380 --> 00:10:44,080
+and if there is a new information وإذا حتى فيه
+
+133
+00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:46,880
+معلومات جديدة، nobody can know where is the price
+
+134
+00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:52,220
+goingwhy؟ ليش؟ because no one predicts the
+
+135
+00:10:52,220 --> 00:10:56,440
+declaration of the new information ماحدش بيعرف أول
+
+136
+00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,160
+شي إيش ال implications تبعت المعلومات، هذا واحد،
+
+137
+00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,760
+اتنين، كمان ماحدش بيعرف متى سيتم الإعلان عن
+
+138
+00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,420
+المعلومات، it's like breaking news، like إيش؟
+
+139
+00:11:07,420 --> 00:11:12,520
+breaking news، like خبر عاجلخبر عاجل على إن
+
+140
+00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:16,760
+الشركات ممنوع مثلا إنه هي تحكي بالمعلومات كتير
+
+141
+00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:19,860
+خاصة بالشركة لازم يكون في conference و يعلنوا هذا
+
+142
+00:11:19,860 --> 00:11:23,500
+الموضوع فهذا خبر عاجل الشركة بتطلع و بتحكي
+
+143
+00:11:23,500 --> 00:11:27,460
+announce على ال strategy اتبعتهم فالكل بيكون
+
+144
+00:11:27,460 --> 00:11:30,200
+بتفاجأة و الأسعار بتتغير بطريقة عشوية
+
+145
+00:11:33,220 --> 00:11:37,860
+How do we explain random stock price change؟ إذا
+
+146
+00:11:37,860 --> 00:11:43,400
+الأسعار زي ما احنا حكيناها is randomly walk، يعني
+
+147
+00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:48,480
+we don't know whether the change is up or down،
+
+148
+00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,800
+this is fifty percent going up and fifty percent
+
+149
+00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,480
+is going down، خمسين في المياه احتمال تطلع، خمسين
+
+150
+00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:57,440
+في المياه احتمال تنخفض
+
+151
+00:12:04,050 --> 00:12:09,150
+أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي
+
+152
+00:12:09,150 --> 00:12:10,730
+هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت
+
+153
+00:12:10,730 --> 00:12:12,810
+ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH
+
+154
+00:12:12,810 --> 00:12:14,150
+أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي
+
+155
+00:12:14,150 --> 00:12:15,770
+AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت
+
+156
+00:12:15,770 --> 00:12:19,270
+هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت
+
+157
+00:12:19,270 --> 00:12:22,440
+ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفall available information
+
+158
+00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,920
+whether this information is private information or
+
+159
+00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:28,100
+public information سواء هي معلومات داخل الشركة أو
+
+160
+00:12:28,100 --> 00:12:31,380
+خارج الشركة الأصحاب already reflect all of these
+
+161
+00:12:31,380 --> 00:12:37,240
+available information okay a forecast تنبؤ a
+
+162
+00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,500
+forecast about favorable future performance leads
+
+163
+00:12:40,500 --> 00:12:44,760
+to favorable current performance التوقع لحدوث
+
+164
+00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:49,760
+إنجازات في المستقبلas market participants rush to
+
+165
+00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:53,480
+trade on a new information يعني الأسعار بتعكس
+
+166
+00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,140
+المعلومات حتى المعلومات المستقبلية اللي لسه ما
+
+167
+00:12:56,140 --> 00:13:01,460
+صارتش فلما تصير هذه المعلومات المستقبلية تحدث ف
+
+168
+00:13:01,460 --> 00:13:04,160
+already ال financial market market reflected this
+
+169
+00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:11,020
+بكون ال financial market بعرف الكلمة okay as
+
+170
+00:13:11,020 --> 00:13:13,740
+market participants rush to trade on a new
+
+171
+00:13:13,740 --> 00:13:17,550
+informationيعني ال market participants الناس اللي
+
+172
+00:13:17,550 --> 00:13:20,410
+مشاركين في السوق و بيعملوا trading في السوق
+
+173
+00:13:20,410 --> 00:13:24,610
+بيحاولوا ان هم to rush on understanding the new
+
+174
+00:13:24,610 --> 00:13:28,230
+information and because this information .. this
+
+175
+00:13:28,230 --> 00:13:33,150
+new information has different interpretation يعني
+
+176
+00:13:33,150 --> 00:13:35,970
+حتى المعلومة الواحدة لها different interpretation
+
+177
+00:13:35,970 --> 00:13:41,790
+تفسيرات مختلفة يعني خلينا نحكي مثلا company A want
+
+178
+00:13:41,790 --> 00:13:48,480
+to take over company Bمثلا company A عاملة take
+
+179
+00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:53,060
+over مع company B او
+
+180
+00:13:53,060 --> 00:13:57,340
+بدهم يعملوا merging with company B فيه هيكون الناس
+
+181
+00:13:57,340 --> 00:14:02,620
+مقسمين، الناس هيحكوا okay this is good for company
+
+182
+00:14:02,620 --> 00:14:05,880
+other people say this is bad for company there is
+
+183
+00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,240
+no agreement between the investors or market
+
+184
+00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:15,100
+participants whether thisميرج ممكن يدفع إلى مستقبل
+
+185
+00:14:15,100 --> 00:14:19,820
+جيد للشركة أو يدفع إلى مستقبل جيد للشركة، ليس هناك
+
+186
+00:14:19,820 --> 00:14:25,740
+اتفاق، لهذا السبب اتفاق الأسعار بين المستخدمين
+
+187
+00:14:25,740 --> 00:14:30,880
+الأسعار بتعكس هذا الاتفاق، يعني لأن بعض المستخدمين
+
+188
+00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:36,920
+مع الاختلاف، والاخرين ضد الاختلاف،
+
+189
+00:14:41,380 --> 00:14:45,740
+Prices change until expected returns are exactly
+
+190
+00:14:45,740 --> 00:14:51,420
+commensurate with risk الأسعار بتبدأ أو العواقب
+
+191
+00:14:51,420 --> 00:14:56,620
+بتبدأ تتغير حتى يصير في مكافأة بين العقل و المخاطر
+
+192
+00:14:56,620 --> 00:14:58,820
+خلينا نشوف how this works
+
+193
+00:15:03,870 --> 00:15:06,550
+طبعا احنا we are talking in the efficient market
+
+194
+00:15:06,550 --> 00:15:09,590
+hypothesis يعني بنذكركوا بس احنا مركزين على ال
+
+195
+00:15:09,590 --> 00:15:14,370
+efficient market الأسواق المتعملية الكبيرة طبعا
+
+196
+00:15:14,370 --> 00:15:17,050
+الكل بيعرف this chart this is security market line
+
+197
+00:15:17,050 --> 00:15:21,710
+okay some people they call this كده كده ال asset
+
+198
+00:15:21,710 --> 00:15:24,650
+pricing model يعني هذا security market line خط
+
+199
+00:15:24,650 --> 00:15:29,830
+السوق حكينا انه all securities are represented in
+
+200
+00:15:29,830 --> 00:15:32,510
+the security market line securities reflecting the
+
+201
+00:15:32,510 --> 00:15:40,650
+riskand return بتعكس العقد المحاصر okay let's
+
+202
+00:15:40,650 --> 00:15:46,390
+consider this case خلينا ناخد ال case هذه لو جينا
+
+203
+00:15:46,390 --> 00:15:54,870
+احنا company A بدتعمل take over to company C نحكي
+
+204
+00:15:54,870 --> 00:15:59,790
+ان هو هي company A this is company Atake over يعني
+
+205
+00:15:59,790 --> 00:16:05,770
+أنك تسيطر أو تعمل managing مع company C مع company
+
+206
+00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:12,330
+C okay طيب
+
+207
+00:16:12,330 --> 00:16:18,670
+هلأ قبل ال take over really take over قبل ال take
+
+208
+00:16:18,670 --> 00:16:25,030
+over a has this risk and has this return just
+
+209
+00:16:25,030 --> 00:16:31,320
+recap itأيه عند هاي المخاطر وهذا العادى هذا قبل ال
+
+210
+00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:35,520
+declaration or the announcement of the takeover
+
+211
+00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:40,900
+قبل ما هم يعملوا قبل السيطرة الوطنية now today for
+
+212
+00:16:40,900 --> 00:16:45,680
+instance they may announce on the takeover
+
+213
+00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:50,280
+decision اليوم أعلنوا عن ال takeover decision what
+
+214
+00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,460
+is going indeed we have a new information لدينا
+
+215
+00:16:53,460 --> 00:16:56,340
+معلومات جديدة okay
+
+216
+00:17:01,090 --> 00:17:05,130
+so because we have a new information it means we
+
+217
+00:17:05,130 --> 00:17:08,670
+adding up to the company a new risk احنا ضفنا
+
+218
+00:17:08,670 --> 00:17:14,210
+مخاطر جديدة okay so the risk is moving from this
+
+219
+00:17:14,210 --> 00:17:20,510
+point to this point so
+
+220
+00:17:20,510 --> 00:17:21,310
+in this case
+
+221
+00:17:25,740 --> 00:17:29,020
+and because there is increase in risk لأنه في
+
+222
+00:17:29,020 --> 00:17:33,560
+زيادة في المخاطر so the market is commensurate the
+
+223
+00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:40,980
+risk or compensate the risk بكافئ المخاطر يعني
+
+224
+00:17:40,980 --> 00:17:45,320
+لأنه في المخاطر زيادة أكيد حسيب فينا العوائد حتزيب
+
+225
+00:17:50,990 --> 00:17:55,410
+so in this case the return increase so because the
+
+226
+00:17:55,410 --> 00:18:01,170
+increase in risk there is increase in return لأنه
+
+227
+00:18:01,170 --> 00:18:07,170
+زادت المخاطر زادت العقد ليش زادت المخاطر because
+
+228
+00:18:07,170 --> 00:18:11,750
+of the new information why the new information
+
+229
+00:18:11,750 --> 00:18:14,650
+because this new information is unpredictable
+
+230
+00:18:17,710 --> 00:18:21,570
+yes and because it is unpredictable it is
+
+231
+00:18:21,570 --> 00:18:25,490
+uncertain uncertain
+
+232
+00:18:25,490 --> 00:18:29,910
+يعني مش مؤكدة what is the implications of this new
+
+233
+00:18:29,910 --> 00:18:33,290
+information on the price لان احنا مابنعرفش شو
+
+234
+00:18:33,290 --> 00:18:36,430
+بتأثر هذه المعلومات على ال price because the
+
+235
+00:18:36,430 --> 00:18:39,230
+market is because the market follows the random
+
+236
+00:18:39,230 --> 00:18:49,220
+walkلأنه الطريقة عشوائية لأن
+
+237
+00:18:49,220 --> 00:18:51,660
+ال efficient market is efficient لازم يكافئ الناس
+
+238
+00:18:51,660 --> 00:18:54,700
+انه there is a new information it means there is a
+
+239
+00:18:54,700 --> 00:18:58,380
+new risk and because there is a new risk as you
+
+240
+00:18:58,380 --> 00:19:03,200
+see in this in the chart it should be a new return
+
+241
+00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:08,280
+so in this case as you observe here A will move
+
+242
+00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,670
+from this pointعلى هذا النقطة.
+
+243
+00:19:14,390 --> 00:19:21,770
+لذلك الآن A في الأكتر لديه أكتر فرصة و أكتر عودة.
+
+244
+00:19:23,970 --> 00:19:31,050
+حسنا؟ لأن المعلومات الجديدة. إذا كانت السوق غير
+
+245
+00:19:31,050 --> 00:19:35,650
+إيجابي، كون حذرا هنا، لأنني الآن أتكلم عن سوقين
+
+246
+00:19:35,650 --> 00:19:42,240
+إيجابي. إذا كان السوق غير إيجابي،أين السعر أو أين
+
+247
+00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:49,200
+حركته؟ ربما في الأسفل ربما في الأعلى. فالأسفل يعني
+
+248
+00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:53,400
+أنه يوجد تغيير في السعر لأننا نعمل في عاملات
+
+249
+00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:58,000
+إيفيشنت ماركت وماركت بإيفيشنت تتعامل مع الرغب
+
+250
+00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:02,100
+والعادة. لكن في عاملات إيفيشنت ماركت يمكننا أن
+
+251
+00:20:02,100 --> 00:20:09,090
+نلاقيwe may observe ممكن احنا نلاحظ the A is going
+
+252
+00:20:09,090 --> 00:20:14,150
+down or going up so in this case the prices is
+
+253
+00:20:14,150 --> 00:20:17,810
+inefficient عشان هيك الأسعار بتكون is inefficient
+
+254
+00:20:17,810 --> 00:20:24,490
+غير كفوة efficient market it means all of the
+
+255
+00:20:24,490 --> 00:20:29,210
+securities must located on the lineال efficient
+
+256
+00:20:29,210 --> 00:20:33,010
+market بتحكي إنه لازم كل ال securities كل الأوراق
+
+257
+00:20:33,010 --> 00:20:37,510
+المالية تقع على على خط السوق reflecting the risk
+
+258
+00:20:37,510 --> 00:20:45,470
+and return واحنا حكينا مثال في ناس مثلا هنا بغزا
+
+259
+00:20:45,470 --> 00:20:51,990
+هان بدهم يتاجروا مثلا بالألفاق فبدهم يدفعوا مثلا
+
+260
+00:20:51,990 --> 00:20:57,860
+مية دولار و لا مية ألف دولار و بدهوش يخسرفبنحكيلهم
+
+261
+00:20:57,860 --> 00:21:00,960
+هذا this is a stupidity to tell this من الغباء
+
+262
+00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,080
+نحكيه بكلام هذا because if you want to invest in
+
+263
+00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:08,700
+high risk investments you .. you have to accept
+
+264
+00:21:08,700 --> 00:21:14,640
+risk and هدول الناس بعدين لما ييجيوا بالوطن
+
+265
+00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,760
+ويقولوا لك اه وش صار وش جرى واحنا نصبوا علينا
+
+266
+00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,700
+ويقولوا لأ مانصبوش عليك انت because you accept
+
+267
+00:21:21,700 --> 00:21:26,200
+riskyou accept this return you have to accept the
+
+268
+00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:32,240
+rest يعني ان انت بدك عائد عالي okay بدك تعمل مخاطر
+
+269
+00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:36,300
+عالية مش ان انت تستثمر و لما مثلا ينهدم النفق و لا
+
+270
+00:21:36,300 --> 00:21:40,780
+كذا تصيح و انا ماليش و انا بترشو okay هذا كلام
+
+271
+00:21:40,780 --> 00:21:45,680
+okay so this is the investment هذا ال investment
+
+272
+00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:51,520
+مستحيل ان احنا نيجي نستثمر بشغل عائد عالي و مافيش
+
+273
+00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,730
+فيها مخاطر او مخاطرها متخفضةthere is no way if we
+
+274
+00:21:55,730 --> 00:22:00,470
+have this if we have this it means the market is
+
+275
+00:22:00,470 --> 00:22:04,750
+inefficient اذا احنا عند الكلام هذا انه عندنا
+
+276
+00:22:04,750 --> 00:22:09,950
+مخاطر عالية و عائد عالي و مخاطر مخفضة معناه الكلام
+
+277
+00:22:09,950 --> 00:22:18,310
+market is inefficient خلينا
+
+278
+00:22:18,310 --> 00:22:25,690
+نشوف لو احنا موجودين هناتبقوا عالي لو احنا موجودين
+
+279
+00:22:25,690 --> 00:22:30,990
+هنا ايش بقى الكلام هذا ال risk المفروض يكون له هذا
+
+280
+00:22:30,990 --> 00:22:36,470
+العائد يعني هذا ال risk لو احنا كملنا لازم العائد
+
+281
+00:22:36,470 --> 00:22:46,870
+سببه هذا يكون احنا بناخد مخاطر منخفضة مع عائد عالي
+
+282
+00:22:46,870 --> 00:22:49,230
+المفروض هذه المخاطر تكون عائدها بهذا الشكل
+
+283
+00:22:52,120 --> 00:22:58,220
+نفس الشغل هان نتحمل احنا ناخد عائد عالي عند نفس
+
+284
+00:22:58,220 --> 00:23:02,320
+نقطة مخاطر فلازم هذا ينجي على الخط هذا و هذا يرتفع
+
+285
+00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,360
+على الخط طبعا هذا بيسموه under price و هذا بيسميه
+
+286
+00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:11,340
+over price طيب الناس
+
+287
+00:23:11,340 --> 00:23:16,120
+بيعطيني معلومات جديدة السوق الكافة لو كان معلومات
+
+288
+00:23:16,120 --> 00:23:20,380
+جديدة فيه و هذه المعلومات المفروض تكون
+
+289
+00:23:20,380 --> 00:23:25,880
+unpredictableفاهموا علي المعلومات أولا لازم تكون
+
+290
+00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:30,060
+unpredictable because it is unpredictable the
+
+291
+00:23:30,060 --> 00:23:34,640
+price will end unpredictable too لأن المعلومات غير
+
+292
+00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:39,620
+متوقعة كمان بيصير ال price سلوك الأسعار غير متوقع
+
+293
+00:23:39,620 --> 00:23:44,900
+طيب لأنه عايشين في حالة .. حالة ال uncertainty
+
+294
+00:23:44,900 --> 00:23:52,220
+عالم التأكد يعني مش متوقعين so we face up a higher
+
+295
+00:23:52,220 --> 00:23:58,360
+riskبنواجه مخاطر عالية because of this high risk
+
+296
+00:23:58,360 --> 00:24:04,060
+the market compensate us by higher return والسوق
+
+297
+00:24:04,060 --> 00:24:09,640
+بيكافئنا بإيش بأعلى لإنه اتحملنا مخاطر أكتر okay
+
+298
+00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:15,760
+so where is the wrong then؟ وين كان الغلط؟ فضلي لا
+
+299
+00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:20,620
+السؤال مفهوش inefficient
+
+300
+00:24:20,620 --> 00:24:23,180
+inefficient يعني غير كفو
+
+301
+00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:35,200
+Okay يعني اللخص الكلام اللي حكيناه حكينا انه ال ..
+
+302
+00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,620
+في ال .. في ال efficient markets في السوق المالي
+
+303
+00:24:37,620 --> 00:24:42,100
+الكفو the prices follow a random walk الأسعار تمشي
+
+304
+00:24:42,100 --> 00:24:47,670
+بطريقة عشوائيةبغض النظر مين اللي عنده معلومات سواء
+
+305
+00:24:47,670 --> 00:24:49,610
+كان معلومات private information ولا public
+
+306
+00:24:49,610 --> 00:24:52,550
+information are the same حتى اللي عندهم private
+
+307
+00:24:52,550 --> 00:24:55,310
+information no longer use this information بيقدروش
+
+308
+00:24:55,310 --> 00:24:58,530
+يستخدموا هذه المعلومات okay because the market is
+
+309
+00:24:58,530 --> 00:25:04,950
+efficient لأن ال market is efficientال market نفسه
+
+310
+00:25:04,950 --> 00:25:08,750
+لما بيصير ان معلومات جديدة في مخاطر جديدة وبالتالي
+
+311
+00:25:08,750 --> 00:25:13,630
+هو بي .. بي .. بيعوض الناس بعائد أعلى بسبب المخاطر
+
+312
+00:25:13,630 --> 00:25:17,690
+الجديدة اللي متحملة إذا كان السوق المالي غير كفوء
+
+313
+00:25:17,690 --> 00:25:25,400
+السوق المالي غير كفوء ممكن نتنبأ بأسعارOkay ممكن و
+
+314
+00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,380
+كمان السوق مش هيكون في a trade-off between the
+
+315
+00:25:28,380 --> 00:25:31,800
+resting and return و السوق مش هيكون فيه مكافأة بين
+
+316
+00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,860
+العائد و المخاطر فهيكون في عندي شغلة اسمها miss
+
+317
+00:25:34,860 --> 00:25:39,100
+pricing اللي هو خطأ في التسعير و كمان في ال
+
+318
+00:25:39,100 --> 00:25:42,140
+inefficient market في الأسواق المالية الغير كفوقة
+
+319
+00:25:42,140 --> 00:25:48,980
+الأسعار لا تعكس كل المعلومات okay لا تعكس كل
+
+320
+00:25:48,980 --> 00:25:51,740
+المعلومات okay
+
+321
+00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:58,920
+نطلع على الشكل اللي موجود هنا look at this chart
+
+322
+00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:04,960
+this chart هاي دراسة انعملت في ال 81 انعملت على
+
+323
+00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:13,300
+شركات صار فيها take over طبعا اطلعوا على الشكل هيك
+
+324
+00:26:13,300 --> 00:26:17,240
+و ركزولي في الشكل خدوا يعني الدقيقة تشوفوا الشكل
+
+325
+00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:26,900
+طلعوا في الشكل اللي هيك بعين ناقضة يعني try to
+
+326
+00:26:26,900 --> 00:26:44,220
+criticize this chart okay
+
+327
+00:26:44,220 --> 00:26:50,070
+طيب في حد في عنده comments ع الشكلالبنات بالورا؟
+
+328
+00:26:50,070 --> 00:26:56,750
+في حد عنده comments على الشكل؟ رأي خليني أشوف مين
+
+329
+00:26:56,750 --> 00:27:03,830
+بالورا؟ بنات؟ في عندكوا رأي في الشكل؟
+
+330
+00:27:03,830 --> 00:27:10,890
+البنات الجانب هذا طلعوا الشكل واضح حلو
+
+331
+00:27:10,890 --> 00:27:15,650
+الشكل ماهناعرفين حلو الشكل بس what it means إيش
+
+332
+00:27:15,650 --> 00:27:25,620
+معنى الشكل؟أه خليني أشوف ايش الشكل يعني وين
+
+333
+00:27:25,620 --> 00:27:32,340
+المحاطرة شوف انت قرأت ايش مكتوب هاي
+
+334
+00:27:32,340 --> 00:27:34,700
+ال abnormal return هي ال abnormal return هي الحتة
+
+335
+00:27:34,700 --> 00:27:39,400
+هذه اه هي الحتة دي abnormal return before takeover
+
+336
+00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,460
+attempts target companies هذي ماخدين احنا طلع
+
+337
+00:27:42,460 --> 00:27:47,080
+فاطمة عندك اتفضلي احكيلي اشوف
+
+338
+00:27:51,470 --> 00:27:58,590
+where is company number one hand
+
+339
+00:27:58,590 --> 00:28:05,050
+days hand days okay ال
+
+340
+00:28:05,050 --> 00:28:11,230
+up normal it meansOkay عنا الأيام هال 135 سنة و
+
+341
+00:28:11,230 --> 00:28:14,750
+125 سنة ايش يعني سالب؟ ايش يعني سالب؟ قبل ال take
+
+342
+00:28:14,750 --> 00:28:17,590
+over قبل ال take over يعني السفر ايش بتوعه؟ هي
+
+343
+00:28:17,590 --> 00:28:20,310
+يعني ال take over هي the day of the announcement
+
+344
+00:28:20,310 --> 00:28:23,470
+of take over تبوا يا ابنات يعني انا ممكن في ال
+
+345
+00:28:23,470 --> 00:28:27,050
+exam اجيبلكم شغل زي هاي explain what the chart
+
+346
+00:28:27,050 --> 00:28:33,070
+means ايش بتعني ال chart؟طبعا السفر هو ال
+
+347
+00:28:33,070 --> 00:28:38,170
+announcement day السفر هو يوم ما تم الاعلان عن ال
+
+348
+00:28:38,170 --> 00:28:41,950
+take over قبل كان هنا انهيار الشركة انهيار مات
+
+349
+00:28:41,950 --> 00:28:46,050
+انهارت الشركة؟ قبل ال service متأكدة أنتي؟ نعم
+
+350
+00:28:46,050 --> 00:28:50,210
+العواقب هنا قبل السفر يعني ماصارت بعد ما ساعدنا
+
+351
+00:28:50,210 --> 00:28:53,210
+اللي هو السيطرة على الشركة صارت العواقب كتير عالية
+
+352
+00:28:53,210 --> 00:28:57,810
+مين بحكي غير هيك؟ تشوف فضل
+
+353
+00:28:59,690 --> 00:29:03,610
+طبعا هي مش شركة واحدة هي مجموعة شركة تعملها take
+
+354
+00:29:03,610 --> 00:29:10,750
+over احنا
+
+355
+00:29:10,750 --> 00:29:12,810
+ماحكيناش عن miss price احنا حكينا بس عن ال
+
+356
+00:29:12,810 --> 00:29:16,110
+abnormal return حسبنا ال abnormal return لكل شركة
+
+357
+00:29:16,110 --> 00:29:22,710
+طيب في حد عنده شغلانة وخرن فضل
+
+358
+00:29:22,710 --> 00:29:26,290
+يا بنات اسمه اهان اسمه اهان
+
+359
+00:29:29,650 --> 00:29:34,210
+Okay في فجوة صح كلامك إيش هذا نسميه؟ في فجوة لأ
+
+360
+00:29:34,210 --> 00:29:40,790
+هذا اسمه jump صار قفزة jump و هذه jump why there
+
+361
+00:29:40,790 --> 00:29:46,650
+is jump؟ this is unpredictable غير متنبأ فيه طيب
+
+362
+00:29:46,650 --> 00:29:55,690
+خليني بس نطلع أهم لو احنا طلعنا باليوم ال 30 يعني
+
+363
+00:29:55,690 --> 00:30:00,420
+30 يوم قبل ال .. قبل ال take overكان ال abnormal
+
+364
+00:30:00,420 --> 00:30:07,360
+retain بال minus okay كان بال minus يعني لو احنا
+
+365
+00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:12,060
+أخدنا المنطقة هذه abnormal retain كان هنا بعدين
+
+366
+00:30:12,060 --> 00:30:20,560
+زاد طيب هلأ نطلع شوي شوي بدأ يزيد زي ما انتوا
+
+367
+00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:26,750
+شايفينطب لعند يوم السفر يوم الإعلان طب مانا اتكلم
+
+368
+00:30:26,750 --> 00:30:30,550
+بيوم السفر قبل يوم السفر في كان ناس تعرف انه there
+
+369
+00:30:30,550 --> 00:30:37,870
+is .. it was a take over مين هم هدول الناس؟ مين
+
+370
+00:30:37,870 --> 00:30:42,350
+هم؟ اعطوني مين هم اللي كان يعرفوا فيه صار leak لل
+
+371
+00:30:42,350 --> 00:30:48,690
+information leak يعني تسرب لمعلومات مين هم ال ..
+
+372
+00:30:48,690 --> 00:30:53,050
+مصاحب مين؟شرحناهم ال board of directors و ال
+
+373
+00:30:53,050 --> 00:30:55,690
+executives و في ناس كمان غيرهم من خارج الشركة
+
+374
+00:30:55,690 --> 00:31:01,910
+بيعرفوا من هما ال specialist ال specialist اللي
+
+375
+00:31:01,910 --> 00:31:06,270
+صار leak لل information صار
+
+376
+00:31:06,270 --> 00:31:11,700
+فيه زيادة في ال abnormal returnتمام؟ لما وصلت لعند
+
+377
+00:31:11,700 --> 00:31:16,300
+هذا الحد أثر .. أثر ال insiders طبعا هذا عند .. في
+
+378
+00:31:16,300 --> 00:31:19,280
+سنة الواحد تمانية اتنية و تمانية كان هذا الشغل بعد
+
+379
+00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,620
+هيك صار يمنعوا ال insiders to trade on the private
+
+380
+00:31:22,620 --> 00:31:25,380
+information صار يمنعوهم يتاجروا في المعلومات
+
+381
+00:31:25,380 --> 00:31:29,180
+الخاصة ممنوع يشتري و يبيعوا في الشركة صار عندهم ..
+
+382
+00:31:29,180 --> 00:31:31,980
+صار في معلومات هلأ صار في jump
+
+383
+00:31:38,150 --> 00:31:42,330
+فجأة jumped لما .. مجرد ما طلع الرجال و حكى we
+
+384
+00:31:42,330 --> 00:31:49,470
+announce that the for instance IBM merged with for
+
+385
+00:31:49,470 --> 00:31:53,110
+instance General Motors مجرد ما حكى الكلمة هذه
+
+386
+00:31:53,110 --> 00:31:57,690
+مباشرة ال .. ال .. ال abnormal ارتفع من من مقطة
+
+387
+00:31:57,690 --> 00:32:02,670
+إلى أخرى فجأة أول شيء ال announcement ماحدش
+
+388
+00:32:02,670 --> 00:32:07,530
+بتتوقعهيعني الإعلان ماحدش توقعه يعني هذه المعلومات
+
+389
+00:32:07,530 --> 00:32:11,130
+الجديدة ماحدش توقعها في السوق تاني شيء ماحدش توقع
+
+390
+00:32:11,130 --> 00:32:16,890
+أنه الأسعار أو ال return هترتفع بهذا الشكل okay
+
+391
+00:32:16,890 --> 00:32:19,810
+اللقاء الجاي بنكمل هذا الموضوع
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..729c13bc48a304850b81a4861ae1dd57a6e5627d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 4717, "start": 20.81, "end": 47.17, "text": "بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا اليوم بنحكي عن chapter eleven أو chapter four or chapter eleven, the same ال chapter الرابع تمام حسب الخطة بتاعتنا و سابقا كنا نحكي عن ال chapter one و chapter two و chapter three كنا نحكي عن ال securities and how we trade on these securities", "tokens": [3555, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 1975, 5016, 8315, 45595, 20498, 44945, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 7187, 21090, 34051, 7187, 1451, 420, 7187, 21090, 11, 264, 912, 2423, 7187, 34892, 16758, 3615, 46811, 10943, 11331, 35457, 33962, 9566, 3660, 39894, 995, 34268, 8315, 4032, 8608, 16758, 4587, 995, 9122, 8315, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 7187, 472, 4032, 7187, 732, 4032, 7187, 1045, 9122, 8315, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 38597, 293, 577, 321, 4923, 322, 613, 38597], "avg_logprob": -0.13364955658713976, "compression_ratio": 1.8477157360406091, "no_speech_prob": 9.5367431640625e-07, "words": 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"probability": 0.703125}, {"start": 196.16, "end": 196.68, "word": " insiders", "probability": 0.7281494140625}, {"start": 196.68, "end": 196.96, "word": " هم", "probability": 0.9091796875}, {"start": 196.96, "end": 197.5, "word": " الموظفين", "probability": 0.9888671875}, {"start": 197.5, "end": 197.68, "word": " بتوع", "probability": 0.978515625}, {"start": 197.68, "end": 198.18, "word": " الشركة", "probability": 0.9967447916666666}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 8, "seek": 21514, "start": 199.14, "end": 215.14, "text": "because sometimes these employees are even far away from the decision making process يعني هدول الموظفين بيكونوا بعيدين عن اتخاذ القرار for instance as I gave you example earlier about about the company of Toyota", "tokens": [17566, 2171, 613, 6619, 366, 754, 1400, 1314, 490, 264, 3537, 1455, 1399, 37495, 22653, 8032, 3215, 12610, 9673, 2407, 19913, 5172, 9957, 4724, 1829, 30544, 14407, 45030, 25708, 9957, 18871, 1975, 2655, 9778, 45636, 25062, 2288, 9640, 337, 5197, 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public information public information is historical information ال public information هي معلومات عامة historical information ال people already know about this information والناس already بيعرفوا أن هاي المعلومات if the price let's go back to the price if the price reflect all of the available information", "tokens": [7711, 6936, 8032, 2304, 2423, 8315, 3794, 2423, 1908, 2423, 8315, 3794, 18863, 995, 16254, 9957, 43242, 16095, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 6225, 10943, 3660, 18871, 25124, 31747, 3660, 1908, 1589, 1908, 1589, 307, 8584, 1589, 2423, 1908, 1589, 39896, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 6225, 10943, 3660, 8584, 1589, 2423, 561, 1217, 458, 466, 341, 1589, 16070, 8315, 3794, 1217, 4724, 40228, 28480, 14407, 14739, 8032, 47302, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 498, 264, 3218, 718, 311, 352, 646, 281, 264, 3218, 498, 264, 3218, 5031, 439, 295, 264, 2435, 1589], "avg_logprob": -0.1495535786335285, "compression_ratio": 2.066371681415929, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 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المعلومات سواء كانت معلومات داخلية أو معلومات خارجية أي معلومات so the price is efficient السعر بيكون efficient كفو okay", "tokens": [1363, 1666, 4551, 1589, 420, 1908, 1589, 370, 264, 2142, 307, 7148, 11933, 15730, 25961, 21136, 3615, 2288, 4724, 40228, 4117, 3794, 28242, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 8608, 2407, 16606, 25961, 2655, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 11778, 47283, 1211, 10632, 34051, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 16490, 9640, 7435, 10632, 36632, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 370, 264, 3218, 307, 7148, 21136, 3615, 2288, 4724, 1829, 30544, 7148, 9122, 5172, 2407, 1392], "avg_logprob": -0.1412852129466097, "compression_ratio": 1.7428571428571429, "no_speech_prob": 2.384185791015625e-07, "words": [{"start": 286.3, "end": 286.84, "word": "whether", "probability": 0.804443359375}, {"start": 286.84, "end": 288.18, "word": " private", "probability": 0.9140625}, {"start": 288.18, "end": 288.7, "word": " information", "probability": 0.9033203125}, {"start": 288.7, "end": 288.96, "word": " or", 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0.4228515625}, {"start": 324.62, "end": 324.9, "word": " about", "probability": 0.935546875}, {"start": 324.9, "end": 325.34, "word": " this", "probability": 0.8623046875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 14, "seek": 35509, "start": 346.49, "end": 355.09, "text": "ماحدش بيستطيع يتنبأ الأسعار where is the price is going يعني بالأهم طرح", "tokens": [15042, 24401, 8592, 4724, 1829, 14851, 9566, 40228, 7251, 2655, 1863, 3555, 10721, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 689, 307, 264, 3218, 307, 516, 37495, 22653, 20666, 10721, 16095, 23032, 2288, 5016], "avg_logprob": -0.2416992192156613, "compression_ratio": 1.08, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 346.49, "end": 347.61, "word": "ماحدش", "probability": 0.57843017578125}, {"start": 347.61, "end": 348.17, "word": " بيستطيع", "probability": 0.7951171875}, {"start": 348.17, "end": 348.61, "word": " يتنبأ", "probability": 0.9650390625}, {"start": 348.61, "end": 349.27, "word": " الأسعار", "probability": 0.90087890625}, {"start": 349.27, "end": 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{"start": 396.25, "end": 397.79, "word": " why", "probability": 0.7373046875}, {"start": 397.79, "end": 399.49, "word": " because", "probability": 0.6982421875}, {"start": 399.49, "end": 399.71, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9345703125}, {"start": 399.71, "end": 400.15, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.74755859375}, {"start": 400.15, "end": 400.79, "word": " already", "probability": 0.8671875}, {"start": 400.79, "end": 401.23, "word": " reflect", "probability": 0.97119140625}, {"start": 401.23, "end": 401.53, "word": " all", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 401.53, "end": 401.63, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9677734375}, {"start": 401.63, "end": 401.71, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9248046875}, {"start": 401.71, "end": 402.11, "word": " information", "probability": 0.826171875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 17, "seek": 43052, "start": 403.88, "end": 430.52, "text": "لأن الأسعار أصلا بتعرف كل المعلومات ال prices are sensitive الأسعار هي حساسة كتير وما ياخد بعين الاعتبار كل المعلومات okay and based on this the price follow a random walk الأسعار تمشي random walk", "tokens": [1211, 33456, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 5551, 9381, 15040, 39894, 3615, 28480, 28242, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 2423, 7901, 366, 9477, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 39896, 11331, 3794, 32277, 3660, 9122, 2655, 13546, 4032, 15042, 7251, 47283, 3215, 45030, 9957, 42963, 34268, 3555, 9640, 28242, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 1392, 293, 2361, 322, 341, 264, 3218, 1524, 257, 4974, 1792, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 46811, 8592, 1829, 4974, 1792], "avg_logprob": -0.1272321492433548, "compression_ratio": 1.6214689265536724, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 403.88, "end": 404.2, "word": "لأن", "probability": 0.91015625}, {"start": 404.2, "end": 404.62, "word": " الأسعار", "probability": 0.986083984375}, {"start": 404.62, "end": 404.86, "word": " أصلا", "probability": 0.9521484375}, {"start": 404.86, "end": 405.16, "word": " بتعرف", "probability": 0.892578125}, {"start": 405.16, "end": 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لازم يكون في conference و يعلنوا هذا الموضوع فهذا خبر عاجل الشركة بتطلع و بتحكي announce على ال strategy اتبعتهم فالكل بيكون بتفاجأة و الأسعار بتتغير بطريقة عشوية", "tokens": [9778, 26890, 6225, 26108, 1211, 15844, 36145, 25124, 31747, 9307, 3714, 27842, 45367, 50113, 15040, 36145, 3224, 39896, 6055, 5016, 4117, 1829, 20666, 2304, 30241, 20498, 9307, 9122, 2655, 13546, 16490, 33546, 3660, 20666, 8592, 31747, 3660, 5296, 31377, 2304, 7251, 30544, 8978, 7586, 4032, 7251, 30241, 1863, 14407, 23758, 9673, 2407, 11242, 45367, 6156, 3224, 15730, 16490, 26890, 6225, 26108, 1211, 25124, 31747, 3660, 39894, 9566, 1211, 3615, 4032, 39894, 5016, 4117, 1829, 7478, 15844, 2423, 5206, 1975, 2655, 3555, 34268, 16095, 6156, 6027, 28820, 4724, 1829, 30544, 39894, 5172, 26108, 10721, 3660, 4032, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 39894, 2655, 17082, 13546, 4724, 9566, 16572, 28671, 6225, 8592, 2407, 10632], "avg_logprob": -0.12744140505258525, "compression_ratio": 1.711297071129707, "no_speech_prob": 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"text": "and return بتعكس العقد المحاصر okay let's consider this case خلينا ناخد ال case هذه لو جينا احنا company A بدتعمل take over to company C نحكي ان هو هي company A this is company A", "tokens": [474, 2736, 39894, 3615, 4117, 3794, 18863, 28543, 9673, 5016, 33546, 2288, 1392, 718, 311, 1949, 341, 1389, 16490, 1211, 9957, 995, 8717, 47283, 3215, 2423, 1389, 29538, 45164, 10874, 1829, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 2237, 316, 47525, 2655, 25957, 1211, 747, 670, 281, 2237, 383, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 16472, 31439, 39896, 2237, 316, 341, 307, 2237, 316], "avg_logprob": -0.2641927162806193, "compression_ratio": 1.4156626506024097, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 934.13, "end": 934.55, "word": "and", "probability": 0.36279296875}, {"start": 934.55, "end": 935.15, "word": " return", "probability": 0.796875}, {"start": 935.15, "end": 937.63, "word": " بتعكس", "probability": 0.744384765625}, {"start": 937.63, "end": 937.95, "word": " العقد", "probability": 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1328.11, "end": 1328.53, "word": " مخاطر", "probability": 0.982666015625}, {"start": 1328.53, "end": 1329.15, "word": " مخفضة", "probability": 0.8626953125}, {"start": 1329.15, "end": 1329.63, "word": " معناه", "probability": 0.7413736979166666}, {"start": 1329.63, "end": 1329.95, "word": " الكلام", "probability": 0.8797200520833334}, {"start": 1329.95, "end": 1330.35, "word": " market", "probability": 0.8759765625}, {"start": 1330.35, "end": 1330.77, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9453125}, {"start": 1330.77, "end": 1331.53, "word": " inefficient", "probability": 0.9130859375}, {"start": 1331.53, "end": 1338.31, "word": " خلينا", "probability": 0.59124755859375}, {"start": 1338.31, "end": 1338.67, "word": " نشوف", "probability": 0.9933268229166666}, {"start": 1338.67, "end": 1340.21, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.90966796875}, {"start": 1340.21, "end": 1340.47, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9853515625}, {"start": 1340.47, "end": 1340.89, "word": " موجودين", "probability": 0.9747314453125}, {"start": 1340.89, "end": 1341.09, "word": " هنا", "probability": 0.84716796875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 52, "seek": 136923, "start": 1342.83, "end": 1369.23, "text": "تبقوا عالي لو احنا موجودين هنا ايش بقى الكلام هذا ال risk المفروض يكون له هذا العائد يعني هذا ال risk لو احنا كملنا لازم العائد سببه هذا يكون احنا بناخد مخاطر منخفضة مع عائد عالي المفروض هذه المخاطر تكون عائدها بهذا الشكل", "tokens": [2655, 3555, 4587, 14407, 6225, 6027, 1829, 45164, 1975, 5016, 8315, 3714, 29245, 23328, 9957, 34105, 1975, 1829, 8592, 4724, 4587, 7578, 2423, 28820, 10943, 23758, 2423, 3148, 9673, 5172, 32887, 11242, 7251, 30544, 46740, 23758, 18863, 16373, 3215, 37495, 22653, 23758, 2423, 3148, 45164, 1975, 5016, 8315, 9122, 42213, 8315, 5296, 31377, 2304, 18863, 16373, 3215, 8608, 3555, 3555, 3224, 23758, 7251, 30544, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 47283, 3215, 3714, 9778, 41193, 2288, 9154, 9778, 5172, 11242, 3660, 20449, 6225, 16373, 3215, 6225, 6027, 1829, 9673, 5172, 32887, 11242, 29538, 9673, 9778, 41193, 2288, 6055, 30544, 6225, 16373, 3215, 11296, 39627, 15730, 25124, 28820], "avg_logprob": -0.19634434637033715, "compression_ratio": 2.0962566844919786, "no_speech_prob": 4.76837158203125e-06, "words": [{"start": 1342.83, "end": 1343.29, "word": "تبقوا", "probability": 0.54632568359375}, {"start": 1343.29, "end": 1343.47, "word": " عالي", "probability": 0.7470703125}, {"start": 1343.47, "end": 1345.03, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.80908203125}, {"start": 1345.03, "end": 1345.25, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9143880208333334}, {"start": 1345.25, "end": 1345.69, "word": " موجودين", "probability": 0.8115234375}, {"start": 1345.69, "end": 1345.95, "word": " هنا", "probability": 0.6806640625}, {"start": 1345.95, "end": 1347.29, "word": " ايش", "probability": 0.718994140625}, {"start": 1347.29, "end": 1347.45, "word": " بقى", "probability": 0.5706380208333334}, {"start": 1347.45, "end": 1347.79, "word": " الكلام", "probability": 0.7796223958333334}, {"start": 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"end": 1355.21, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 1355.21, "end": 1355.45, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9495442708333334}, {"start": 1355.45, "end": 1355.89, "word": " كملنا", "probability": 0.9456380208333334}, {"start": 1355.89, "end": 1356.17, "word": " لازم", "probability": 0.9464518229166666}, {"start": 1356.17, "end": 1356.47, "word": " العائد", "probability": 0.9329427083333334}, {"start": 1356.47, "end": 1356.73, "word": " سببه", "probability": 0.681640625}, {"start": 1356.73, "end": 1356.93, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.822265625}, {"start": 1356.93, "end": 1357.25, "word": " يكون", "probability": 0.97607421875}, {"start": 1357.25, "end": 1358.89, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.92919921875}, {"start": 1358.89, "end": 1360.99, "word": " بناخد", "probability": 0.9375}, {"start": 1360.99, "end": 1363.19, "word": " مخاطر", "probability": 0.93896484375}, {"start": 1363.19, "end": 1364.31, "word": " منخفضة", "probability": 0.92724609375}, {"start": 1364.31, "end": 1366.11, "word": " مع", "probability": 0.513671875}, {"start": 1366.11, "end": 1366.45, "word": " عائد", "probability": 0.96484375}, {"start": 1366.45, "end": 1366.87, "word": " عالي", "probability": 0.9524739583333334}, {"start": 1366.87, "end": 1367.27, "word": " المفروض", "probability": 0.93310546875}, {"start": 1367.27, "end": 1367.57, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.5947265625}, {"start": 1367.57, "end": 1368.07, "word": " المخاطر", "probability": 0.98828125}, {"start": 1368.07, "end": 1368.27, "word": " تكون", "probability": 0.953857421875}, {"start": 1368.27, "end": 1368.63, "word": " عائدها", "probability": 0.8538818359375}, {"start": 1368.63, "end": 1368.87, "word": " بهذا", "probability": 0.676025390625}, {"start": 1368.87, "end": 1369.23, "word": " الشكل", "probability": 0.98828125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 53, "seek": 140090, "start": 1372.12, "end": 1400.9, "text": "نفس الشغل هان نتحمل احنا ناخد عائد عالي عند نفس نقطة مخاطر فلازم هذا ينجي على الخط هذا و هذا يرتفع على الخط طبعا هذا بيسموه under price و هذا بيسميه over price طيب الناس بيعطيني معلومات جديدة السوق الكافة لو كان معلومات جديدة فيه و هذه المعلومات المفروض تكون unpredictable", "tokens": [1863, 36178, 25124, 17082, 1211, 8032, 7649, 8717, 2655, 35571, 1211, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 47283, 3215, 6225, 16373, 3215, 6225, 6027, 1829, 43242, 8717, 36178, 8717, 47432, 3660, 3714, 9778, 41193, 2288, 6156, 1211, 31377, 2304, 23758, 7251, 1863, 7435, 1829, 15844, 33962, 9566, 23758, 4032, 23758, 7251, 43500, 5172, 3615, 15844, 33962, 9566, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 23758, 4724, 1829, 38251, 2407, 3224, 833, 3218, 4032, 23758, 4724, 1829, 38251, 1829, 3224, 670, 3218, 23032, 1829, 3555, 2423, 8315, 3794, 4724, 1829, 3615, 9566, 1829, 22653, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 10874, 16254, 41891, 21136, 30543, 33251, 31845, 3660, 45164, 25961, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 10874, 16254, 41891, 8978, 3224, 4032, 29538, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 9673, 5172, 32887, 11242, 6055, 30544, 31160], 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1391.34, "word": " الناس", "probability": 0.80126953125}, {"start": 1391.34, "end": 1391.74, "word": " بيعطيني", "probability": 0.7882486979166666}, {"start": 1391.74, "end": 1392.12, "word": " معلومات", "probability": 0.98486328125}, {"start": 1392.12, "end": 1392.48, "word": " جديدة", "probability": 0.9894205729166666}, {"start": 1392.48, "end": 1393.68, "word": " السوق", "probability": 0.6572265625}, {"start": 1393.68, "end": 1394.14, "word": " الكافة", "probability": 0.76025390625}, {"start": 1394.14, "end": 1394.94, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.634765625}, {"start": 1394.94, "end": 1395.26, "word": " كان", "probability": 0.99560546875}, {"start": 1395.26, "end": 1396.12, "word": " معلومات", "probability": 0.9705810546875}, {"start": 1396.12, "end": 1396.48, "word": " جديدة", "probability": 0.9912109375}, {"start": 1396.48, "end": 1397.68, "word": " فيه", "probability": 0.863037109375}, {"start": 1397.68, "end": 1399.1, "word": " و", "probability": 0.64501953125}, {"start": 1399.1, "end": 1399.28, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.7685546875}, {"start": 1399.28, "end": 1399.74, "word": " المعلومات", "probability": 0.984130859375}, {"start": 1399.74, "end": 1400.1, "word": " المفروض", "probability": 0.94677734375}, {"start": 1400.1, "end": 1400.38, "word": " تكون", "probability": 0.88427734375}, {"start": 1400.38, "end": 1400.9, "word": " unpredictable", "probability": 0.68603515625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 54, "seek": 143264, "start": 1403.0, "end": 1432.64, "text": "فاهموا علي المعلومات أولا لازم تكون unpredictable because it is unpredictable the price will end unpredictable too لأن المعلومات غير متوقعة كمان بيصير ال price سلوك الأسعار غير متوقع طيب لأنه عايشين في حالة .. حالة ال uncertainty عالم التأكد يعني مش متوقعين so we face up a higher risk", "tokens": [5172, 995, 16095, 14407, 25894, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 5551, 12610, 995, 5296, 31377, 2304, 6055, 30544, 31160, 570, 309, 307, 31160, 264, 3218, 486, 917, 31160, 886, 5296, 33456, 9673, 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{"start": 1412.52, "end": 1413.96, "word": " لأن", "probability": 0.775634765625}, {"start": 1413.96, "end": 1414.4, "word": " المعلومات", "probability": 0.9833984375}, {"start": 1414.4, "end": 1414.64, "word": " غير", "probability": 0.9970703125}, {"start": 1414.64, "end": 1415.36, "word": " متوقعة", "probability": 0.9676106770833334}, {"start": 1415.36, "end": 1416.68, "word": " كمان", "probability": 0.9454752604166666}, {"start": 1416.68, "end": 1417.0, "word": " بيصير", "probability": 0.8616943359375}, {"start": 1417.0, "end": 1417.1, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.884765625}, {"start": 1417.1, "end": 1417.6, "word": " price", "probability": 0.974609375}, {"start": 1417.6, "end": 1418.44, "word": " سلوك", "probability": 0.84136962890625}, {"start": 1418.44, "end": 1418.94, "word": " الأسعار", "probability": 0.9918212890625}, {"start": 1418.94, "end": 1419.1, "word": " غير", "probability": 0.99560546875}, {"start": 1419.1, "end": 1419.62, "word": " متوقع", "probability": 0.98388671875}, {"start": 1419.62, "end": 1420.98, "word": " طيب", "probability": 0.8850911458333334}, {"start": 1420.98, "end": 1421.98, "word": " لأنه", "probability": 0.7556966145833334}, {"start": 1421.98, "end": 1422.62, "word": " عايشين", "probability": 0.9427490234375}, {"start": 1422.62, "end": 1422.8, "word": " في", "probability": 0.953125}, {"start": 1422.8, "end": 1423.26, "word": " حالة", "probability": 0.9884440104166666}, {"start": 1423.26, "end": 1423.4, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.2646484375}, {"start": 1423.4, "end": 1424.06, "word": " حالة", "probability": 0.98828125}, {"start": 1424.06, "end": 1424.18, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.90185546875}, {"start": 1424.18, "end": 1424.9, "word": " uncertainty", "probability": 0.92431640625}, {"start": 1424.9, "end": 1426.44, "word": " عالم", "probability": 0.97705078125}, {"start": 1426.44, "end": 1427.68, "word": " التأكد", "probability": 0.9903564453125}, {"start": 1427.68, "end": 1427.9, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.811279296875}, {"start": 1427.9, "end": 1428.46, "word": " مش", "probability": 0.9423828125}, {"start": 1428.46, "end": 1429.18, "word": " متوقعين", "probability": 0.9849853515625}, {"start": 1429.18, "end": 1430.2, "word": " so", "probability": 0.81494140625}, {"start": 1430.2, "end": 1430.56, "word": " we", "probability": 0.87744140625}, {"start": 1430.56, "end": 1431.0, "word": " face", "probability": 0.9140625}, {"start": 1431.0, "end": 1431.42, "word": " up", "probability": 0.78515625}, {"start": 1431.42, "end": 1432.02, "word": " a", "probability": 0.8779296875}, {"start": 1432.02, "end": 1432.22, "word": " higher", "probability": 0.9150390625}, {"start": 1432.22, "end": 1432.64, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.970703125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 55, "seek": 146318, "start": 1434.42, "end": 1463.18, "text": "بنواجه مخاطر عالية because of this high risk the market compensate us by higher return والسوق بيكافئنا بإيش بأعلى لإنه اتحملنا مخاطر أكتر okay so where is the wrong then؟ وين كان الغلط؟ فضلي لا السؤال مفهوش inefficient inefficient يعني غير كفو", "tokens": [3555, 1863, 2407, 26108, 3224, 3714, 9778, 41193, 2288, 6225, 6027, 10632, 570, 295, 341, 1090, 3148, 264, 2142, 29458, 505, 538, 2946, 2736, 16070, 3794, 30543, 4724, 1829, 4117, 31845, 19986, 8315, 4724, 28814, 1829, 8592, 4724, 10721, 3615, 23942, 5296, 28814, 1863, 3224, 1975, 2655, 35571, 1211, 8315, 3714, 9778, 41193, 2288, 5551, 4117, 2655, 2288, 1392, 370, 689, 307, 264, 2085, 550, 22807, 4032, 9957, 25961, 6024, 118, 1211, 9566, 22807, 6156, 11242, 20292, 20193, 21136, 33604, 6027, 3714, 5172, 3224, 2407, 8592, 43495, 43495, 37495, 22653, 32771, 13546, 9122, 5172, 2407], "avg_logprob": -0.2534179575741291, "compression_ratio": 1.4309623430962344, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1434.42, "end": 1435.12, "word": "بنواجه", "probability": 0.9544921875}, {"start": 1435.12, "end": 1436.12, "word": " مخاطر", "probability": 0.9923095703125}, {"start": 1436.12, 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1441.52, "word": " return", "probability": 0.72265625}, {"start": 1441.52, "end": 1444.06, "word": " والسوق", "probability": 0.74560546875}, {"start": 1444.06, "end": 1444.62, "word": " بيكافئنا", "probability": 0.743896484375}, {"start": 1444.62, "end": 1445.14, "word": " بإيش", "probability": 0.8839111328125}, {"start": 1445.14, "end": 1446.76, "word": " بأعلى", "probability": 0.685791015625}, {"start": 1446.76, "end": 1447.14, "word": " لإنه", "probability": 0.822265625}, {"start": 1447.14, "end": 1447.64, "word": " اتحملنا", "probability": 0.92314453125}, {"start": 1447.64, "end": 1448.12, "word": " مخاطر", "probability": 0.9647216796875}, {"start": 1448.12, "end": 1448.52, "word": " أكتر", "probability": 0.892578125}, {"start": 1448.52, "end": 1449.64, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.70849609375}, {"start": 1449.64, "end": 1451.3, "word": " so", "probability": 0.5986328125}, {"start": 1451.3, "end": 1451.54, "word": " where", "probability": 0.6103515625}, {"start": 1451.54, "end": 1451.64, "word": " is", "probability": 0.89208984375}, {"start": 1451.64, "end": 1451.72, "word": " the", "probability": 0.904296875}, {"start": 1451.72, "end": 1451.9, "word": " wrong", "probability": 0.7626953125}, {"start": 1451.9, "end": 1452.9, "word": " then؟", "probability": 0.692626953125}, {"start": 1452.9, "end": 1453.04, "word": " وين", "probability": 0.870849609375}, {"start": 1453.04, "end": 1453.2, "word": " كان", "probability": 0.99365234375}, {"start": 1453.2, "end": 1453.56, "word": " الغلط؟", "probability": 0.89716796875}, {"start": 1453.56, "end": 1454.54, "word": " فضلي", "probability": 0.8043619791666666}, {"start": 1454.54, "end": 1455.76, "word": " لا", "probability": 0.2410888671875}, {"start": 1455.76, "end": 1456.02, "word": " السؤال", "probability": 0.65087890625}, {"start": 1456.02, "end": 1456.44, "word": " مفهوش", "probability": 0.58603515625}, {"start": 1456.44, "end": 1460.62, "word": " inefficient", "probability": 0.1973876953125}, {"start": 1460.62, "end": 1462.32, "word": " inefficient", "probability": 0.92431640625}, {"start": 1462.32, "end": 1462.7, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.98193359375}, {"start": 1462.7, "end": 1462.9, "word": " غير", "probability": 0.984619140625}, {"start": 1462.9, "end": 1463.18, "word": " كفو", "probability": 0.7932942708333334}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 56, "seek": 148296, "start": 1469.16, "end": 1482.96, "text": "Okay يعني اللخص الكلام اللي حكيناه حكينا انه ال .. في ال .. في ال efficient markets في السوق المالي الكفو the prices follow a random walk الأسعار تمشي بطريقة عشوائية", "tokens": [8297, 37495, 22653, 13672, 9778, 9381, 2423, 28820, 10943, 13672, 1829, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 3224, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 16472, 3224, 2423, 4386, 8978, 2423, 4386, 8978, 2423, 7148, 8383, 8978, 21136, 30543, 9673, 6027, 1829, 33251, 5172, 2407, 264, 7901, 1524, 257, 4974, 1792, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 46811, 8592, 1829, 4724, 9566, 16572, 28671, 6225, 8592, 2407, 16373, 10632], "avg_logprob": -0.17088294218456934, "compression_ratio": 1.4450867052023122, "no_speech_prob": 6.556510925292969e-07, "words": [{"start": 1469.1599999999999, "end": 1469.8, "word": "Okay", "probability": 0.90283203125}, {"start": 1469.8, "end": 1470.44, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.775146484375}, {"start": 1470.44, "end": 1470.92, "word": " اللخص", "probability": 0.7252604166666666}, {"start": 1470.92, "end": 1471.18, "word": " الكلام", "probability": 0.84228515625}, {"start": 1471.18, "end": 1471.28, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.837646484375}, {"start": 1471.28, "end": 1471.88, "word": " حكيناه", "probability": 0.90322265625}, {"start": 1471.88, "end": 1473.9, "word": " حكينا", "probability": 0.904541015625}, {"start": 1473.9, "end": 1474.22, "word": " انه", "probability": 0.640625}, {"start": 1474.22, "end": 1474.38, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.450439453125}, {"start": 1474.38, "end": 1475.2, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.517578125}, {"start": 1475.2, "end": 1475.72, "word": " في", "probability": 0.91015625}, {"start": 1475.72, "end": 1475.94, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9775390625}, {"start": 1475.94, "end": 1475.96, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.796875}, {"start": 1475.96, "end": 1476.08, "word": " في", "probability": 0.9306640625}, {"start": 1476.08, "end": 1476.16, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9365234375}, {"start": 1476.16, "end": 1476.36, "word": " efficient", "probability": 0.92041015625}, {"start": 1476.36, "end": 1476.92, "word": " markets", "probability": 0.91796875}, {"start": 1476.92, "end": 1477.12, "word": " في", "probability": 0.755859375}, {"start": 1477.12, "end": 1477.38, "word": " السوق", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 1477.38, "end": 1477.62, "word": " المالي", "probability": 0.91455078125}, {"start": 1477.62, "end": 1477.98, "word": " الكفو", "probability": 0.8590494791666666}, {"start": 1477.98, "end": 1479.34, "word": " the", "probability": 0.270751953125}, {"start": 1479.34, "end": 1479.66, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.845703125}, {"start": 1479.66, "end": 1479.9, "word": " follow", "probability": 0.91552734375}, {"start": 1479.9, "end": 1480.02, "word": " a", "probability": 0.95751953125}, {"start": 1480.02, "end": 1480.26, "word": " random", "probability": 0.87646484375}, {"start": 1480.26, "end": 1480.66, "word": " walk", "probability": 0.91796875}, {"start": 1480.66, "end": 1481.72, "word": " الأسعار", "probability": 0.9625244140625}, {"start": 1481.72, "end": 1482.1, "word": " تمشي", "probability": 0.8972981770833334}, {"start": 1482.1, "end": 1482.42, "word": " بطريقة", "probability": 0.9783935546875}, {"start": 1482.42, "end": 1482.96, "word": " عشوائية", "probability": 0.98134765625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 57, "seek": 150253, "start": 1484.61, "end": 1502.53, "text": "بغض النظر مين اللي عنده معلومات سواء كان معلومات private information ولا public information are the same حتى اللي عندهم private information no longer use this information بيقدروش يستخدموا هذه المعلومات okay because the market is efficient لأن ال market is efficient", "tokens": [3555, 17082, 11242, 28239, 19913, 2288, 3714, 9957, 13672, 1829, 43242, 3224, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 8608, 2407, 16606, 25961, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 4551, 1589, 49429, 1908, 1589, 366, 264, 912, 11331, 49975, 13672, 1829, 43242, 16095, 4551, 1589, 572, 2854, 764, 341, 1589, 4724, 1829, 28543, 2288, 2407, 8592, 7251, 14851, 9778, 40448, 14407, 29538, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 1392, 570, 264, 2142, 307, 7148, 5296, 33456, 2423, 2142, 307, 7148], "avg_logprob": -0.12510556747784485, "compression_ratio": 1.7087378640776698, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1484.61, "end": 1485.09, "word": "بغض", "probability": 0.9544270833333334}, {"start": 1485.09, "end": 1485.63, "word": " النظر", "probability": 0.9527994791666666}, {"start": 1485.63, "end": 1486.51, "word": " مين", "probability": 0.74365234375}, {"start": 1486.51, "end": 1486.61, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.919189453125}, {"start": 1486.61, "end": 1486.79, "word": " عنده", "probability": 0.98291015625}, {"start": 1486.79, "end": 1487.31, "word": " معلومات", "probability": 0.9473876953125}, {"start": 1487.31, "end": 1487.67, "word": " سواء", "probability": 0.84033203125}, {"start": 1487.67, "end": 1487.87, "word": " كان", "probability": 0.99560546875}, {"start": 1487.87, "end": 1488.29, "word": " معلومات", "probability": 0.86737060546875}, {"start": 1488.29, "end": 1488.65, "word": " private", "probability": 0.9423828125}, {"start": 1488.65, "end": 1489.17, "word": " information", "probability": 0.90771484375}, {"start": 1489.17, "end": 1489.33, "word": " ولا", "probability": 0.65283203125}, {"start": 1489.33, "end": 1489.61, "word": " public", "probability": 0.9677734375}, {"start": 1489.61, "end": 1490.17, "word": " information", "probability": 0.93359375}, {"start": 1490.17, "end": 1490.41, "word": " are", "probability": 0.85693359375}, {"start": 1490.41, "end": 1490.61, "word": " the", "probability": 0.93994140625}, {"start": 1490.61, "end": 1490.91, "word": " same", "probability": 0.9169921875}, {"start": 1490.91, "end": 1491.95, "word": " حتى", "probability": 0.8818359375}, {"start": 1491.95, "end": 1492.05, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 1492.05, "end": 1492.31, "word": " عندهم", "probability": 0.992919921875}, {"start": 1492.31, "end": 1492.55, "word": " private", "probability": 0.95263671875}, {"start": 1492.55, "end": 1493.11, "word": " information", "probability": 0.93896484375}, {"start": 1493.11, "end": 1493.41, "word": " no", "probability": 0.87353515625}, {"start": 1493.41, "end": 1493.77, "word": " longer", "probability": 0.95556640625}, {"start": 1493.77, "end": 1494.01, "word": " use", "probability": 0.82275390625}, {"start": 1494.01, "end": 1494.17, "word": " this", "probability": 0.9423828125}, {"start": 1494.17, "end": 1494.73, "word": " information", "probability": 0.87060546875}, {"start": 1494.73, "end": 1495.31, 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"شرحناهم ال board of directors و ال executives و في ناس كمان غيرهم من خارج الشركة بيعرفوا من هما ال specialist ال specialist اللي صار leak لل information صار فيه زيادة في ال abnormal return", "tokens": [46309, 5016, 8315, 16095, 2423, 3150, 295, 17307, 4032, 2423, 28485, 4032, 8978, 8717, 32277, 9122, 2304, 7649, 32771, 13546, 16095, 9154, 16490, 9640, 7435, 25124, 31747, 3660, 4724, 40228, 28480, 14407, 9154, 8032, 15042, 2423, 17008, 2423, 17008, 13672, 1829, 20328, 9640, 17143, 24976, 1589, 20328, 9640, 8978, 3224, 30767, 1829, 18513, 3660, 8978, 2423, 32847, 2736], "avg_logprob": -0.17597987641722468, "compression_ratio": 1.4833333333333334, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1850.3899999999999, "end": 1851.11, "word": "شرحناهم", "probability": 0.960205078125}, {"start": 1851.11, "end": 1851.25, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9326171875}, {"start": 1851.25, "end": 1851.47, "word": " board", "probability": 0.896484375}, {"start": 1851.47, "end": 1851.59, 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1863.13, "word": " information", "probability": 0.92626953125}, {"start": 1863.13, "end": 1866.27, "word": " صار", "probability": 0.9541015625}, {"start": 1866.27, "end": 1866.69, "word": " فيه", "probability": 0.6807861328125}, {"start": 1866.69, "end": 1867.05, "word": " زيادة", "probability": 0.9713134765625}, {"start": 1867.05, "end": 1867.13, "word": " في", "probability": 0.94775390625}, {"start": 1867.13, "end": 1867.19, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.7265625}, {"start": 1867.19, "end": 1867.79, "word": " abnormal", "probability": 0.81005859375}, {"start": 1867.79, "end": 1868.19, "word": " return", "probability": 0.47119140625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 72, "seek": 189198, "start": 1869.92, "end": 1891.98, "text": "تمام؟ لما وصلت لعند هذا الحد أثر .. أثر ال insiders طبعا هذا عند .. في سنة الواحد تمانية اتنية و تمانية كان هذا الشغل بعد هيك صار يمنعوا ال insiders to trade on the private information صار يمنعوهم يتاجروا في المعلومات الخاصة ممنوع يشتري و يبيعوا في الشركة صار عندهم .. صار في معلومات هلأ صار في jump", "tokens": [39237, 10943, 22807, 5296, 15042, 4032, 36520, 2655, 5296, 3615, 41260, 23758, 21542, 3215, 5551, 49115, 4386, 5551, 49115, 2423, 1028, 6936, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 23758, 43242, 4386, 8978, 8608, 1863, 3660, 2423, 14407, 24401, 46811, 7649, 10632, 1975, 2655, 1863, 10632, 4032, 46811, 7649, 10632, 25961, 23758, 25124, 17082, 1211, 39182, 39896, 4117, 20328, 9640, 7251, 27842, 3615, 14407, 2423, 1028, 6936, 281, 4923, 322, 264, 4551, 1589, 20328, 9640, 7251, 27842, 3615, 2407, 16095, 7251, 2655, 26108, 2288, 14407, 8978, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 33962, 33546, 3660, 3714, 27842, 45367, 7251, 8592, 2655, 16572, 4032, 7251, 21292, 3615, 14407, 8978, 25124, 31747, 3660, 20328, 9640, 43242, 16095, 4386, 20328, 9640, 8978, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 8032, 1211, 10721, 20328, 9640, 8978, 3012], "avg_logprob": -0.14583333321507014, "compression_ratio": 1.8980392156862744, "no_speech_prob": 3.039836883544922e-06, "words": [{"start": 1869.92, 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"probability": 0.99365234375}, {"start": 1878.52, "end": 1879.28, "word": " بعد", "probability": 0.86767578125}, {"start": 1879.28, "end": 1879.68, "word": " هيك", "probability": 0.84033203125}, {"start": 1879.68, "end": 1879.88, "word": " صار", "probability": 0.978271484375}, {"start": 1879.88, "end": 1880.32, "word": " يمنعوا", "probability": 0.85888671875}, {"start": 1880.32, "end": 1880.36, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.94140625}, {"start": 1880.36, "end": 1880.94, "word": " insiders", "probability": 0.8701171875}, {"start": 1880.94, "end": 1881.2, "word": " to", "probability": 0.91845703125}, {"start": 1881.2, "end": 1881.64, "word": " trade", "probability": 0.955078125}, {"start": 1881.64, "end": 1882.0, "word": " on", "probability": 0.9521484375}, {"start": 1882.0, "end": 1882.22, "word": " the", "probability": 0.826171875}, {"start": 1882.22, "end": 1882.62, "word": " private", "probability": 0.9248046875}, {"start": 1882.62, "end": 1883.22, "word": " information", "probability": 0.94873046875}, {"start": 1883.22, "end": 1883.68, "word": " صار", "probability": 0.97998046875}, {"start": 1883.68, "end": 1884.28, "word": " يمنعوهم", "probability": 0.9884765625}, {"start": 1884.28, "end": 1884.86, "word": " يتاجروا", "probability": 0.99169921875}, {"start": 1884.86, "end": 1884.94, "word": " في", "probability": 0.9560546875}, {"start": 1884.94, "end": 1885.38, "word": " المعلومات", "probability": 0.9945068359375}, {"start": 1885.38, "end": 1885.8, "word": " الخاصة", "probability": 0.9895833333333334}, {"start": 1885.8, "end": 1886.2, "word": " ممنوع", "probability": 0.8850911458333334}, {"start": 1886.2, "end": 1886.48, "word": " يشتري", "probability": 0.9049072265625}, {"start": 1886.48, "end": 1886.6, "word": " و", "probability": 0.73046875}, {"start": 1886.6, "end": 1886.94, "word": " يبيعوا", "probability": 0.9561767578125}, {"start": 1886.94, "end": 1887.12, "word": " في", "probability": 0.9912109375}, {"start": 1887.12, "end": 1888.12, "word": " الشركة", "probability": 0.9954427083333334}, {"start": 1888.12, "end": 1888.54, "word": " صار", "probability": 0.966064453125}, {"start": 1888.54, "end": 1888.94, "word": " عندهم", "probability": 0.9921875}, {"start": 1888.94, "end": 1889.18, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.78955078125}, {"start": 1889.18, "end": 1889.62, "word": " صار", "probability": 0.9619140625}, {"start": 1889.62, "end": 1889.82, "word": " في", "probability": 0.94921875}, {"start": 1889.82, "end": 1890.52, "word": " معلومات", "probability": 0.8935546875}, {"start": 1890.52, "end": 1891.22, "word": " هلأ", "probability": 0.6148274739583334}, {"start": 1891.22, "end": 1891.5, "word": " صار", "probability": 0.98974609375}, {"start": 1891.5, "end": 1891.62, "word": " في", "probability": 0.95703125}, {"start": 1891.62, "end": 1891.98, "word": " jump", "probability": 0.74169921875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 73, "seek": 192357, "start": 1898.15, "end": 1923.57, "text": "فجأة jumped لما .. مجرد ما طلع الرجال و حكى we announce that the for instance IBM merged with for instance General Motors مجرد ما حكى الكلمة هذه مباشرة ال .. ال .. ال abnormal ارتفع من من مقطة إلى أخرى فجأة أول شيء ال announcement ماحدش بتتوقعه", "tokens": [5172, 7435, 10721, 3660, 13864, 5296, 15042, 4386, 3714, 7435, 2288, 3215, 19446, 23032, 1211, 3615, 34892, 7435, 6027, 4032, 11331, 4117, 7578, 321, 7478, 300, 264, 337, 5197, 23487, 36427, 365, 337, 5197, 6996, 40118, 3714, 7435, 2288, 3215, 19446, 11331, 4117, 7578, 33251, 19528, 3660, 29538, 3714, 3555, 33599, 25720, 2423, 4386, 2423, 4386, 2423, 32847, 1975, 43500, 5172, 3615, 9154, 9154, 3714, 47432, 3660, 30731, 5551, 34740, 7578, 6156, 7435, 10721, 3660, 5551, 12610, 44049, 38207, 2423, 12847, 19446, 24401, 8592, 39894, 2655, 30543, 3615, 3224], "avg_logprob": -0.20381944742467667, "compression_ratio": 1.502183406113537, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1898.15, "end": 1898.97, "word": "فجأة", "probability": 0.8607177734375}, {"start": 1898.97, "end": 1899.23, "word": " jumped", "probability": 0.1376953125}, {"start": 1899.23, "end": 1899.47, "word": " لما", "probability": 0.81396484375}, {"start": 1899.47, "end": 1899.91, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.39599609375}, {"start": 1899.91, "end": 1900.49, "word": " مجرد", "probability": 0.98388671875}, {"start": 1900.49, "end": 1900.59, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.95703125}, {"start": 1900.59, "end": 1900.91, "word": " طلع", "probability": 0.9860026041666666}, {"start": 1900.91, "end": 1901.61, "word": " الرجال", "probability": 0.98291015625}, {"start": 1901.61, "end": 1901.75, "word": " و", "probability": 0.97314453125}, {"start": 1901.75, "end": 1902.13, "word": " حكى", "probability": 0.8792317708333334}, {"start": 1902.13, "end": 1902.33, "word": " we", "probability": 0.810546875}, {"start": 1902.33, "end": 1902.95, "word": " announce", "probability": 0.87744140625}, {"start": 1902.95, "end": 1904.97, "word": " that", "probability": 0.89306640625}, {"start": 1904.97, "end": 1905.37, "word": " the", "probability": 0.7041015625}, {"start": 1905.37, "end": 1905.73, "word": " for", "probability": 0.791015625}, {"start": 1905.73, "end": 1905.97, "word": " instance", "probability": 0.96484375}, {"start": 1905.97, "end": 1906.59, "word": " IBM", "probability": 0.9453125}, {"start": 1906.59, "end": 1908.07, "word": " merged", "probability": 0.72998046875}, {"start": 1908.07, "end": 1908.51, "word": " with", "probability": 0.931640625}, {"start": 1908.51, "end": 1909.47, "word": " for", "probability": 0.89697265625}, {"start": 1909.47, "end": 1909.83, "word": " instance", "probability": 0.96630859375}, {"start": 1909.83, "end": 1910.27, "word": " General", "probability": 0.5771484375}, {"start": 1910.27, "end": 1910.81, "word": " Motors", "probability": 0.927734375}, {"start": 1910.81, "end": 1912.01, "word": " مجرد", "probability": 0.966796875}, {"start": 1912.01, "end": 1912.13, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.9521484375}, {"start": 1912.13, "end": 1912.43, "word": " حكى", "probability": 0.95751953125}, {"start": 1912.43, "end": 1912.81, "word": " الكلمة", "probability": 0.8995768229166666}, {"start": 1912.81, "end": 1913.11, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.8193359375}, {"start": 1913.11, "end": 1913.77, "word": " مباشرة", "probability": 0.90771484375}, {"start": 1913.77, "end": 1913.97, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.87451171875}, {"start": 1913.97, "end": 1913.97, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.233154296875}, {"start": 1913.97, "end": 1914.79, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.939453125}, {"start": 1914.79, "end": 1914.79, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.323974609375}, {"start": 1914.79, "end": 1914.99, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9482421875}, {"start": 1914.99, "end": 1915.35, "word": " abnormal", "probability": 0.654296875}, {"start": 1915.35, "end": 1916.27, "word": " ارتفع", "probability": 0.911865234375}, {"start": 1916.27, "end": 1916.51, "word": " من", "probability": 0.99609375}, {"start": 1916.51, "end": 1917.41, "word": " من", "probability": 0.59130859375}, {"start": 1917.41, "end": 1917.69, "word": " مقطة", "probability": 0.78662109375}, {"start": 1917.69, "end": 1917.81, "word": " إلى", "probability": 0.25}, {"start": 1917.81, "end": 1919.01, "word": " أخرى", "probability": 0.8390299479166666}, {"start": 1919.01, "end": 1919.93, "word": " فجأة", "probability": 0.94091796875}, {"start": 1919.93, "end": 1921.51, "word": " أول", "probability": 0.7452392578125}, {"start": 1921.51, "end": 1921.69, "word": " شيء", "probability": 0.548828125}, {"start": 1921.69, "end": 1921.77, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.73291015625}, {"start": 1921.77, "end": 1922.19, "word": " announcement", "probability": 0.849609375}, {"start": 1922.19, "end": 1922.67, "word": " ماحدش", "probability": 0.923828125}, {"start": 1922.67, "end": 1923.57, "word": " بتتوقعه", "probability": 0.9513671875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 74, "seek": 193981, "start": 1925.23, "end": 1939.81, "text": "يعني الإعلان ماحدش توقعه يعني هذه المعلومات الجديدة ماحدش توقعها في السوق تاني شيء ماحدش توقع أنه الأسعار أو ال return هترتفع بهذا الشكل okay اللقاء الجاي بنكمل هذا الموضوع", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 33688, 30241, 7649, 19446, 24401, 8592, 6055, 30543, 3615, 3224, 37495, 22653, 29538, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 25724, 16254, 41891, 19446, 24401, 8592, 6055, 30543, 3615, 11296, 8978, 21136, 30543, 6055, 7649, 1829, 44049, 38207, 19446, 24401, 8592, 6055, 30543, 3615, 14739, 3224, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 34051, 2423, 2736, 8032, 2655, 43500, 5172, 3615, 39627, 15730, 25124, 28820, 1392, 13672, 4587, 16606, 25724, 47302, 44945, 24793, 1211, 23758, 9673, 2407, 11242, 45367], "avg_logprob": -0.1354852005055076, "compression_ratio": 1.7528735632183907, "no_speech_prob": 1.1622905731201172e-05, "words": [{"start": 1925.23, "end": 1925.55, "word": "يعني", "probability": 0.859619140625}, {"start": 1925.55, "end": 1925.93, "word": " الإعلان", "probability": 0.92822265625}, {"start": 1925.93, "end": 1926.25, "word": " ماحدش", "probability": 0.8717447916666666}, {"start": 1926.25, "end": 1926.69, "word": " توقعه", "probability": 0.8988037109375}, {"start": 1926.69, "end": 1926.89, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.7100830078125}, {"start": 1926.89, "end": 1927.11, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.92626953125}, {"start": 1927.11, "end": 1927.53, "word": " المعلومات", "probability": 0.99169921875}, {"start": 1927.53, "end": 1927.81, "word": " الجديدة", "probability": 0.9840494791666666}, {"start": 1927.81, "end": 1928.15, "word": " ماحدش", "probability": 0.9514973958333334}, {"start": 1928.15, "end": 1928.53, "word": " توقعها", "probability": 0.9393310546875}, {"start": 1928.53, "end": 1928.65, "word": " في", "probability": 0.94482421875}, {"start": 1928.65, "end": 1928.99, "word": " السوق", "probability": 0.985107421875}, {"start": 1928.99, "end": 1930.03, "word": " تاني", "probability": 0.80615234375}, {"start": 1930.03, "end": 1930.25, "word": " شيء", "probability": 0.634033203125}, {"start": 1930.25, "end": 1930.65, "word": " ماحدش", "probability": 0.96484375}, {"start": 1930.65, "end": 1931.13, "word": " توقع", "probability": 0.9736328125}, {"start": 1931.13, "end": 1931.47, "word": " أنه", "probability": 0.689453125}, {"start": 1931.47, "end": 1932.09, "word": " الأسعار", "probability": 0.9508056640625}, {"start": 1932.09, "end": 1932.45, "word": " أو", "probability": 0.75537109375}, {"start": 1932.45, "end": 1932.69, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.93701171875}, {"start": 1932.69, "end": 1933.09, "word": " return", "probability": 0.85107421875}, {"start": 1933.09, "end": 1933.69, "word": " هترتفع", "probability": 0.802490234375}, {"start": 1933.69, "end": 1933.95, "word": " بهذا", "probability": 0.921142578125}, {"start": 1933.95, "end": 1934.93, "word": " الشكل", "probability": 0.991455078125}, {"start": 1934.93, "end": 1936.89, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.3681640625}, {"start": 1936.89, "end": 1938.47, "word": " اللقاء", "probability": 0.9427083333333334}, {"start": 1938.47, "end": 1938.73, "word": " الجاي", "probability": 0.703857421875}, {"start": 1938.73, "end": 1939.19, "word": " بنكمل", "probability": 0.88134765625}, {"start": 1939.19, "end": 1939.37, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.97265625}, {"start": 1939.37, "end": 1939.81, "word": " الموضوع", "probability": 0.998291015625}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 1940.677375, "duration_after_vad": 1826.103749999995}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..93770c24867f776cb148e06d367d4b4841482f26
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1307 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:25,490
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم بال .. بالمحاضرة الفاتة كنا
+
+2
+00:00:25,490 --> 00:00:31,190
+نحكي عن الـ factors اللي بتأثر على أسعار الفوائد
+
+3
+00:00:31,190 --> 00:00:39,570
+okay؟ و بس أنه احنا بس نذكركم أن الـ .. الـ R الـ ..
+
+4
+00:00:39,570 --> 00:00:44,570
+الـ .. الـ R nominal بتتأثر بالـ inflation و بتتأثر
+
+5
+00:00:44,570 --> 00:00:50,090
+بالـ taxation و بتتأثر بالـ holding period. Okay هذا
+
+6
+00:00:50,090 --> 00:00:55,050
+المرة الفاتحة حكينا فيه، قولنا الـ inflation when
+
+7
+00:00:55,050 --> 00:01:01,250
+inflation increase, R increase, increase and when
+
+8
+00:01:01,250 --> 00:01:07,670
+tax increase, the R also the R should decrease. I
+
+9
+00:01:07,670 --> 00:01:11,730
+mean the R after tax, the holding period
+
+10
+00:01:16,300 --> 00:01:19,280
+when the holding period increase, r should 
+
+11
+00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:24,000
+increase. يعني إذا كانت الفترة الزمنية طويلة زي ما
+
+12
+00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:28,560
+احنا شوفنا كل ما كان العقد أو الفائدة أعلى وكل ما
+
+13
+00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,160
+كان الـ inflation عالي كل ما كان الـ r أعلى. هذا
+
+14
+00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:40,360
+الكلام اللي احنا حكينا فيه. طيب كنا
+
+15
+00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,580
+احنا نحكي بالـ real interest rate
+
+16
+00:01:46,250 --> 00:01:49,150
+حنشوف طريقة احتساب الـ real interest rate. If we
+
+17
+00:01:49,150 --> 00:01:52,230
+invest less than one year and if we invest more
+
+18
+00:01:52,230 --> 00:01:55,590
+than one year. يعني إذا إحنا بنستثمر بأقل من سنة أو
+
+19
+00:01:55,590 --> 00:02:01,150
+إذا بنستثمر أكتر من سنة. Okay, effective
+
+20
+00:02:01,150 --> 00:02:05,350
+annual, annual معناها سنوي. Effective annual return
+
+21
+00:02:05,350 --> 00:02:09,690
+يعني إذا كانت إحنا بناخد عائد سنة سنة أو أقل
+
+22
+00:02:11,090 --> 00:02:13,690
+percentage increase in fund invested over a one
+
+23
+00:02:13,690 --> 00:02:17,770
+year horizon. معناه كده أنه كل ما احنا بنعيد ..
+
+24
+00:02:17,770 --> 00:02:20,230
+بنزيد عدد سنوات الاستثمار كل ما الـ interest rate
+
+25
+00:02:20,230 --> 00:02:24,790
+بتزيد. هذا كنا متفقين عليه زمان أو الـ .. the last
+
+26
+00:02:24,790 --> 00:02:29,250
+meeting. Effective annual return هذا is stand for
+
+27
+00:02:29,250 --> 00:02:34,030
+effective annual return. Percentage increase يعني
+
+28
+00:02:34,030 --> 00:02:37,860
+كل ما زادت الفائدة in funds invested over a one
+
+29
+00:02:37,860 --> 00:02:41,320
+year horizon. كل ما بيزيد الفترة الزمنية كل ما
+
+30
+00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,360
+بيزيد العائد اللي احنا بدنايه. And I give you
+
+31
+00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:49,340
+example last meeting. Bonn Bank of Palestine or the
+
+32
+00:02:49,340 --> 00:02:53,870
+Islamic Bank, give you مرابحة for one year. He may
+
+33
+00:02:53,870 --> 00:02:56,790
+take .. the bank of .. the Islamic bank may take
+
+34
+00:02:56,790 --> 00:03:00,890
+six percent if for two years, nine percent if for
+
+35
+00:03:00,890 --> 00:03:06,190
+three years maybe twelve percent. So the .. the
+
+36
+00:03:06,190 --> 00:03:08,850
+interest rate is a positive function with the time
+
+37
+00:03:08,850 --> 00:03:12,050
+horizon. يعني أسعار الفائدة هي positive function
+
+38
+00:03:12,050 --> 00:03:16,530
+يعني إلها علاقة إيجابية بـ .. بأسعار الفوائد يعني
+
+39
+00:03:16,530 --> 00:03:19,170
+كل ما .. أسعار الفوائد .. كل ما الفترات الزمنية
+
+40
+00:03:19,170 --> 00:03:22,780
+زادت كل ما سعر الفائدة بيزيد. طيب how we calculate
+
+41
+00:03:22,780 --> 00:03:25,240
+the effective annual return؟ كيف نحسب الـ effective
+
+42
+00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:29,000
+annual return؟ To calculate the effective annual
+
+43
+00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,320
+return, one plus effective annual return is equal
+
+44
+00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:38,380
+one plus risk free time .. time for instance, how
+
+45
+00:03:38,380 --> 00:03:42,240
+many times per year because we have two equations
+
+46
+00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:46,060
+this equations. If we invest less than one year. إذا
+
+47
+00:03:46,060 --> 00:03:50,310
+احنا بنستثمر بأقل من سنة. إذا احنا بنستثمر for
+
+48
+00:03:50,310 --> 00:03:57,890
+instance, less than one year. نستثمر أخر من سنة. So
+
+49
+00:03:57,890 --> 00:04:03,750
+it is equal one plus r the risk free or any r over
+
+50
+00:04:03,750 --> 00:04:12,270
+one divided by T. For instance, ع سبيل مثل if we
+
+51
+00:04:12,270 --> 00:04:18,080
+invest for only three months. اذا احنا بنعمل استثمار
+
+52
+00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:23,480
+لتلات شهور. Only three months.
+
+53
+00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:29,780
+إذا احنا بنستثمر لتلات شهور. You
+
+54
+00:04:29,780 --> 00:04:32,300
+ask yourself how many times the interest rate is
+
+55
+00:04:32,300 --> 00:04:37,060
+calculated in a year. كم مرة بتنحسب أسعار الفائدة
+
+56
+00:04:37,060 --> 00:04:40,980
+يعني إذا احنا بنحسبها تلات شهور من جولها اللي هو
+
+57
+00:04:40,980 --> 00:04:47,050
+تلاتة عاطم عاشر الـ T ثلاثة على اثنا عشر. طب لو احنا
+
+58
+00:04:47,050 --> 00:04:54,190
+نحسبها two weeks. أسبوعين يعني أخدنا مرابح لمدة
+
+59
+00:04:54,190 --> 00:04:58,870
+أسبوعين. دائما
+
+60
+00:04:58,870 --> 00:05:03,730
+المخصوم والمخصوم عليه لازم يكونوا متشابهين يعني
+
+61
+00:05:03,730 --> 00:05:08,930
+ما نفعش أقول اثنين على اثنا عشر. ما نفع لأن اثنين بتصير
+
+62
+00:05:08,930 --> 00:05:16,480
+شهرين. طب أسبوعين ع السنة بدنا نحسبها كام؟ اثنين و
+
+63
+00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:23,600
+خمسين. انتبهوا يعني الـ week ع السنة
+
+64
+00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:28,680
+الـ year is equal fifty two week or fifty two weeks.
+
+65
+00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:34,700
+الـ year بتساوي twelve months. معروف هذا الكلام. Okay
+
+66
+00:05:35,740 --> 00:05:40,720
+الـ year بتساوي three six five days. و some people
+
+67
+00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:44,880
+ممكن يعملوا three sixty يعني على تلت مية و خمس و
+
+68
+00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:49,940
+ستين ولا تلت مية و ستين واحد three sixty. إذا احنا
+
+69
+00:05:49,940 --> 00:05:54,380
+أخدنا weekly، أخدنا monthly، أخدنا daily، ممكن يكون
+
+70
+00:05:54,380 --> 00:06:00,580
+الـ year نحسبها quarterly. كم quarter في السنة؟ Four
+
+71
+00:06:00,580 --> 00:06:06,300
+four quarter أربع .. أربع سنين. طيب هلو لو احنا
+
+72
+00:06:06,300 --> 00:06:14,240
+أخدنا مثال. For instance, if R is twelve percent. R
+
+73
+00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:18,980
+is twelve percent. R
+
+74
+00:06:18,980 --> 00:06:29,760
+is twelve percent and T is three months. والـ T تلت
+
+75
+00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:35,850
+.. تلت شهور يعني احنا if we get for instance مرابحة
+
+76
+00:06:35,850 --> 00:06:41,350
+if we get مرابحة for three months and يعني إذا
+
+77
+00:06:41,350 --> 00:06:45,690
+أخدنا مرابحة for three months and the interest or
+
+78
+00:06:45,690 --> 00:06:52,930
+the مرابحة rate is twelve percent a year. Calculate
+
+79
+00:06:52,930 --> 00:06:55,550
+the effective annual return. ده نحسب الـ effective
+
+80
+00:06:55,550 --> 00:07:01,410
+annual return. Okay, الـ effective annual return له
+
+81
+00:07:01,410 --> 00:07:06,870
+هذا المعنى is equal واحد plus أربعاش في المية. طيب
+
+82
+00:07:06,870 --> 00:07:10,610
+هل أربعاش في المية هذه a year؟ أربعاش في المية
+
+83
+00:07:10,610 --> 00:07:15,890
+بالسنة. لازم نعملها ايش بالـ .. احنا عندنا تلات شهور
+
+84
+00:07:15,890 --> 00:07:20,930
+وبالتالي نوحدها على كام؟ نقسمها أربعاش. Okay لأنه
+
+85
+00:07:20,930 --> 00:07:28,680
+شايفين R F في T. Okay, one divided قداش أو اللي هو أن
+
+86
+00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:38,460
+كم شهر حنستثمرها؟ تلاتة على اثنا عشر. Okay فبتصير
+
+87
+00:07:38,460 --> 00:07:44,100
+اثنا عشر في المية ع اثنا عشر بتطلع one point oh one over
+
+88
+00:07:44,100 --> 00:07:50,560
+تلاتة ع اثنا عشر، تلاتة، واحد ع تلاتة، أربعة يعني بيطلع
+
+89
+00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:54,160
+عنكم الجواب بهذا الشكل. طبعا انكم بالآلة الحاسبة
+
+90
+00:07:54,160 --> 00:08:01,340
+بتحسبوها؟ في حد ما عرفش يستخدم الآلة الحاسبة؟
+
+91
+00:08:01,340 --> 00:08:06,900
+وين الآلة الحاسبة يا عزيزي؟ احسبولي كام تطلع. شوف
+
+92
+00:08:16,460 --> 00:08:21,040
+12% ع 12
+
+93
+00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:25,340
+تطلع 1% مظبوط؟
+
+94
+00:08:25,340 --> 00:08:34,080
+1% و 1 و 1 و 1% مظبوط؟ طب اه الـ time ما هو هاي الـ
+
+95
+00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,680
+time، الـ time اللي هو الـ risk free as a function in
+
+96
+00:08:37,680 --> 00:08:42,520
+time. يعني الـ risk free كمعرفة بالناحية الزمنية. يعني
+
+97
+00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:48,240
+12% احنا بالسنة. طب الشهر كام؟ عشان نوحد المقامات
+
+98
+00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:54,880
+فبتطلع بالشهر اللي هو عندك واحد تمانية في أستراتع
+
+99
+00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:59,360
+اثنا عشر. كده بتطلع one
+
+100
+00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:03,600
+point zero zero two. طبعا بتجيب الواحد بتصير zero
+
+101
+00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:04,660
+zero two.
+
+102
+00:09:09,300 --> 00:09:16,680
+إذا كلامك صحيح كام بتطلع؟ حطيها
+
+103
+00:09:16,680 --> 00:09:26,240
+بـ تلاتة ع اثنا عشر. اه قص ربع كام تطلع؟ طيب okay
+
+104
+00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:30,160
+ناخد
+
+105
+00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,160
+مثال تاني عشان تفهموه أكتر. ناخد مثال تاني okay
+
+106
+00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,460
+مثال
+
+107
+00:09:36,460 --> 00:09:37,880
+تاني. خدوا another example
+
+108
+00:09:42,560 --> 00:09:47,720
+ناخد مثال تاني. If you take for instance a loan
+
+109
+00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:52,300
+from Bank of Palestine, loan from Bank of
+
+110
+00:09:52,300 --> 00:09:59,360
+Palestine for nine months لتسعة
+
+111
+00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:03,540
+شهور. And the annual interest
+
+112
+00:10:11,260 --> 00:10:21,280
+is fifteen percent. What is the what is effective
+
+113
+00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:29,120
+annual return. طيب نحسن effective
+
+114
+00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:35,600
+annual return. سهل. One plus 15% لأن شهرية بنحولها
+
+115
+00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:40,800
+شهرية يصيب على 12. Okay, over تسعة على اثنا عشر. That's
+
+116
+00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:44,720
+it. شوفوا كده هتاخد معاكم بالحال ثانية. Two seconds
+
+117
+00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:48,880
+نضربهم في عشرة هتكون عشرين ثانية. يعني نضرب أنه
+
+118
+00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:53,540
+الفرق بين المدرس للطالب عشر مرات. يعني نعتبر
+
+119
+00:10:53,540 --> 00:10:58,560
+ثانيتين في عشرة اضربهم في عشرين، أربعين ثانية. يعني
+
+120
+00:10:58,560 --> 00:11:02,540
+it doesn't take that much time. لكن المشكلة وين
+
+121
+00:11:02,540 --> 00:11:08,260
+المشكلة؟ You practice this only on your exam. يعني
+
+122
+00:11:08,260 --> 00:11:11,060
+انتوا بتـ .. بتروح بتحلوا الأسئلة بس في الامتحان
+
+123
+00:11:11,060 --> 00:11:14,080
+تمام؟
+
+124
+00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:19,000
+عشان احنا نحل مسائل زي هيك، حلوا السؤال أول مرة و
+
+125
+00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,760
+رغم أن انتوا فاهمين، روح حلّوها كمان مرة. ليش احنا .. 
+
+126
+00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,280
+ايش بنا نهدف؟ نهدف أن كل ما نحله كمان مرة كل ما
+
+127
+00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:29,710
+نخفض الزمن اللي محتاجينه عشان نحل السؤال، احنا
+
+128
+00:11:29,710 --> 00:11:32,090
+متأكدين you understand this أن أنتو فاهمين كلام
+
+129
+00:11:32,090 --> 00:11:35,030
+هذا ما فيش مشكلة عندنا، لكن المشكلة هو يعني when you
+
+130
+00:11:35,030 --> 00:11:37,530
+... you are using your calculator, it takes time
+
+131
+00:11:37,530 --> 00:11:40,070
+because you don't have that experience in dealing 
+
+132
+00:11:40,070 --> 00:11:43,830
+with the calculator. So in order to overcome this
+
+133
+00:11:43,830 --> 00:11:47,790
+problem, you have to practice how to use the
+
+134
+00:11:47,790 --> 00:11:51,710
+calculator لأنه أنا ب... ب... لما كنت ألف على الطلاب
+
+135
+00:11:51,710 --> 00:11:55,170
+و الطالبات في الامتحان، كان the majority of them
+
+136
+00:11:55,170 --> 00:11:59,990
+are struggling in using their calculators، لما
+
+137
+00:11:59,990 --> 00:12:03,370
+أغلبهم كانوا and they are they lost their time
+
+138
+00:12:03,370 --> 00:12:08,710
+because of this، لأنه ضيع واجد عشان بس خاطر أنه how
+
+139
+00:12:08,710 --> 00:12:12,470
+to use the calculator. So be careful on this point.
+
+140
+00:12:12,470 --> 00:12:16,810
+009، طب بعد ما نجيب الواحد، اه بعد ما 
+
+141
+00:12:16,810 --> 00:12:21,270
+نجيب الواحد، okay so
+
+142
+00:12:21,270 --> 00:12:23,730
+this is the effective annual return, okay.
+
+143
+00:12:29,420 --> 00:12:32,940
+ايش المفهوم العملي؟ المفهوم العملي للناس لما نحكي
+
+144
+00:12:32,940 --> 00:12:38,280
+لها الفائدة 9%، they know the 9% تبهوا what it
+
+145
+00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:42,380
+means from the practical point of view, when we are
+
+146
+00:12:42,380 --> 00:12:45,180
+telling people the interest rate is 9%، they think
+
+147
+00:12:45,180 --> 00:12:51,180
+this 9% is for the... for the مرابحة or for the
+
+148
+00:12:51,180 --> 00:12:55,620
+interest, and this is nominal, this is not real، بقى
+
+149
+00:12:55,620 --> 00:12:58,500
+if we consider the time frame، يعني لما نروحنا
+
+150
+00:12:58,500 --> 00:13:02,920
+على البنك نقوله قداش المرابحة على السيارة، بنياها 
+
+151
+00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:07,360
+انتوبوا يا بنات هذا سؤال كويس، نقولهم... نقول للبنك
+
+152
+00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,180
+قداش المرابحة على السيارة، هيقولنا المرابحة على
+
+153
+00:13:10,180 --> 00:13:16,900
+السيارة 6%، بقى in reality is not 6%، ممكن يكون أكثر 
+
+154
+00:13:16,900 --> 00:13:21,320
+من 6%، okay so we need to calculate the effective
+
+155
+00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,920
+annual return، طبعًا ستة في المية سنوية إذا كانت
+
+156
+00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:30,080
+أكثر من سنة هتكون أكثر من ستة في المية، إذا كانت
+
+157
+00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:35,600
+أقل من سنة هتكون الفائدة أقل، تمام؟ لإن ال bank ميجيش
+
+158
+00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:39,620
+يقولك والله بالظبط، هيجي يقولك ستة في المية as a
+
+159
+00:13:39,620 --> 00:13:44,520
+standard per annum، per annum يعني سنويًا، okay.
+
+160
+00:13:46,150 --> 00:13:49,410
+فاحنا we need to calculate، طيب لما نيجي أحكيله
+
+161
+00:13:49,410 --> 00:13:53,070
+بدنا ورابح السيارة على مدة سنتين، two years، okay.
+
+162
+00:13:53,070 --> 00:13:57,130
+six percent، لكن it is not six percent، it is around
+
+163
+00:13:57,130 --> 00:14:00,250
+eleven to twelve percent، لأنه لما احنا بنحسب على
+
+164
+00:14:00,250 --> 00:14:03,010
+مدة سنتين، so this is why it is important to
+
+165
+00:14:03,010 --> 00:14:06,190
+calculate the effective annual return، just remind
+
+166
+00:14:06,190 --> 00:14:10,990
+our example in when we talk about Coca-Cola، Okay,
+
+167
+00:14:11,150 --> 00:14:14,110
+so this is why it is important to calculate or to
+
+168
+00:14:14,110 --> 00:14:16,930
+estimate the effective annual return. So this
+
+169
+00:14:16,930 --> 00:14:22,150
+equation، be careful، this equation is applied if
+
+170
+00:14:22,150 --> 00:14:26,430
+we have less than one year، if the timeframe is
+
+171
+00:14:26,430 --> 00:14:28,790
+less than one year. If the timeframe is greater
+
+172
+00:14:28,790 --> 00:14:32,410
+than one year، so we need to calculate this
+
+173
+00:14:32,410 --> 00:14:37,030
+equation. إذا كان أكثر من سنة، هنستخدم هذه ال
+
+174
+00:14:37,030 --> 00:14:38,590
+equation. What is the difference?
+
+175
+00:14:43,030 --> 00:14:47,850
+ايش الفرق؟ اتطلعوا أنتو على ال... على ال annual
+
+176
+00:14:47,850 --> 00:14:53,970
+... ال annual return، so one plus effective annual
+
+177
+00:14:53,970 --> 00:15:00,250
+return over power T minus one divided by T، T is
+
+178
+00:15:00,250 --> 00:15:03,050
+the time، so T
+
+179
+00:15:10,350 --> 00:15:14,030
+T in all cases is the time، the time frame or the
+
+180
+00:15:14,030 --> 00:15:17,830
+time horizon، okay or the... the time that you...
+
+181
+00:15:17,830 --> 00:15:20,770
+you invest your money، يعني ممكن يكون less than one
+
+182
+00:15:20,770 --> 00:15:24,670
+year، ممكن يكون more than one year، The annual
+
+183
+00:15:24,670 --> 00:15:27,690
+average
+
+184
+00:15:27,690 --> 00:15:31,390
+return or the annual return، طبعًا ليش احنا ما حكيناش
+
+185
+00:15:31,390 --> 00:15:36,260
+effective، this is not effective، هذا مش effective
+
+186
+00:15:36,260 --> 00:15:39,340
+لأنه is greater than one year، أكثر من سنة and
+
+187
+00:15:39,340 --> 00:15:44,080
+definitely it will be greater than the effective
+
+188
+00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:51,100
+فهي ساوي one plus effective annual return times T
+
+189
+00:15:51,100 --> 00:15:55,740
+or power T minus one divided by T، لو أجينا احنا
+
+190
+00:15:55,740 --> 00:16:02,040
+نرجع لمثال المرابحة، لو جينا مثال مرابحة، لو حكيناكم
+
+191
+00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,340
+for instance the effective annual return is twelve
+
+192
+00:16:06,340 --> 00:16:10,060
+percent، twelve
+
+193
+00:16:10,060 --> 00:16:16,240
+percent and the مرابحة is for five years، المرابحة
+
+194
+00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:22,680
+لكم؟ ال tea قديش صارت؟ five years، okay، calculate
+
+195
+00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:32,340
+APR، احسبوا ال annualized return، طبعًا ال annualized
+
+196
+00:16:32,340 --> 00:16:36,140
+return بيساوي one plus ال effective twelve percent
+
+197
+00:16:36,140 --> 00:16:43,840
+okay، power five minus one divided by five، بس طبعًا
+
+198
+00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,820
+لما نيجي في الامتحان، لما نيجي في الامتحان واحنا
+
+199
+00:16:47,820 --> 00:16:52,040
+نشوف معادلة زي هذه، يعني هيك لو هذا عليه تلات درجات
+
+200
+00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,780
+أخدتو علامتين قبل ما أنتو توصلوا للجواب النهائي
+
+201
+00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:04,720
+Okay، بتطلع كام؟ point one five، يعني خمسة... fifteen
+
+202
+00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:11,620
+percent، بتطلع الجواب fifteen percent، okay، طيب if
+
+203
+00:17:11,620 --> 00:17:13,400
+they... خلينا ناخد كمان مثال
+
+204
+00:17:18,620 --> 00:17:22,940
+مش شرق، ضخم عادي، يعني لو خلطيها point fifteen، هي
+
+205
+00:17:22,940 --> 00:17:32,060
+fifteen percent، اه، أنا ايه؟ ال effective، اه، هي
+
+206
+00:17:32,060 --> 00:17:39,320
+سنة واحدة، سنة، إذا 
+
+207
+00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:44,420
+كان أقل من سنة، بنفشح العهد، إذا كانت أكثر من سنة،
+
+208
+00:17:44,420 --> 00:17:51,220
+طب إذا كانت سنة وشيء؟ بدك شوفي جربيها شوف وبعدين
+
+209
+00:17:51,220 --> 00:17:58,560
+راجعوني، لو كانت ثمانتاشر شهر يا بناتي ما هو كيف ده
+
+210
+00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:06,580
+أشتغل، هل أحط ثمانتاشر؟ فاكروا فيها، make up in your
+
+211
+00:18:06,580 --> 00:18:11,820
+minds، ممكن نحسبها واحدة ونص أو طريقة ثانية باعتبرها
+
+212
+00:18:11,820 --> 00:18:16,120
+أقل من سنة بعمل ثمانتاشر شهر ع طعم عاش فبتعرف واحد و
+
+213
+00:18:16,120 --> 00:18:19,120
+نص على طعم عاش... على... بكسم الفائدة ع طعم عاش بطلع
+
+214
+00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:23,180
+عند الجواد في عدة طرح للحل، يعني ممكن زي ما اتفضلت
+
+215
+00:18:23,180 --> 00:18:25,960
+هاي هان أن... واحد ونص على واحد ونص بيمشي
+
+216
+00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:30,320
+الحل، أو اشترى المعادلة الثانية 18 ع 12 وأكسم 
+
+217
+00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:38,820
+الفائدة ع 12 وخلصنا الحل، okay so be careful، تمام؟
+
+218
+00:18:38,820 --> 00:18:45,580
+أي سؤال يا بنات في ال... الفرق؟ حسب ما قالوا البنات
+
+219
+00:18:45,580 --> 00:18:51,720
+أنا 15%، okay؟
+
+220
+00:18:51,720 --> 00:19:00,100
+في حد اللي سؤال؟ any question؟ بنات أنا شايف في
+
+221
+00:19:00,100 --> 00:19:04,280
+بنات معاهم مش قالت حاسبة، يعني بس أربع خمس بنات
+
+222
+00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:08,200
+معاهم قالت حاسبة، فأنا يعني هذا في indicator عندي
+
+223
+00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:13,190
+أن أنتو you try these questions in your exam، أنه
+
+224
+00:19:13,190 --> 00:19:18,010
+بتجربوا هذه الأسئلة في الامتحان وبالتالي أنا مش
+
+225
+00:19:18,010 --> 00:19:24,130
+عارف، it is up to you، يعني أنا... يعني زي ما
+
+226
+00:19:24,130 --> 00:19:27,110
+بيقولوا المثل، يعني you can drive the horse to the
+
+227
+00:19:27,110 --> 00:19:30,710
+water but you cannot force him to drink، يعني ممكن
+
+228
+00:19:30,710 --> 00:19:34,110
+تاخد الحصان للمي بس ما بنقدرش نقوله اشرب، احنا
+
+229
+00:19:34,110 --> 00:19:37,820
+بنفهمكم بس ما بنقدرش نقولكم انجحوا، لأنه أنا شايف ال
+
+230
+00:19:37,820 --> 00:19:40,380
+majority، one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
+
+231
+00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,980
+eight, nine, ten, twelve, fourteen, fifteen,
+
+232
+00:19:44,140 --> 00:19:47,740
+sixteen، about twenty-five students of thirty-five
+
+233
+00:19:47,740 --> 00:19:54,040
+they leave their calculators and enjoying in the
+
+234
+00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:58,140
+house or houses، يعني القلاد الحاسمة مبسوطة في
+
+235
+00:19:58,140 --> 00:20:02,060
+البيوت، رغم أن أنا في التعليمات قلتلكم جيبوا القلاد
+
+236
+00:20:02,060 --> 00:20:05,960
+الحاسمة، مظبوط؟ okay، it is not my problem then
+
+237
+00:20:10,930 --> 00:20:18,190
+نشوف هاي عندكم اللي في البيت ترجع للألحاس بتاعتها
+
+238
+00:20:18,190 --> 00:20:21,950
+and they... and she apply this، بتحاول تطبق الكلام
+
+239
+00:20:21,950 --> 00:20:26,750
+هذا لإن أنا ممكن أجيب الكتابل and fill this space
+
+240
+00:20:26,750 --> 00:20:35,950
+يعني بجيب الكتابل وأنو عبوا الفرار لازم
+
+241
+00:20:35,950 --> 00:20:43,660
+يساووا بعض، exactly، لازم هنجيب
+
+242
+00:20:43,660 --> 00:20:49,380
+أسئلة بتلات أشهر، أنا ما بحبش يعني أخدعكم، يعني هجيب
+
+243
+00:20:49,380 --> 00:20:52,160
+تلات أشهر وبأسبوعين وبشهر وبشهرين وبيوم كمان
+
+244
+00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:57,800
+هجيب وهجيب أسئلة ثمانتاشر شهر وتسعتاشر شهر، لأ
+
+245
+00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:02,180
+يعني هو إذا سؤال واحد، توقعوا واحد من هدول هو سؤال
+
+246
+00:21:02,180 --> 00:21:08,600
+واحد، إذا أسبوعين يا بنات، إذا كانت أسبوعين، إذا كانت
+
+247
+00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,980
+أسبوعين أنتي تطلعي على ال T، بنقسم ال T على 52 وب
+
+248
+00:21:12,980 --> 00:21:23,940
+نقدر اللي هو عندك أسبوعين على 52، ها دي فهمتي؟ اه
+
+249
+00:21:23,940 --> 00:21:30,420
+360 أو 365، يعني ما بدناش ندخل ليش 360 وليش 365
+
+250
+00:21:30,420 --> 00:21:36,680
+تنتنصح نعتبرها، طيب نتطلع على ال compound rates
+
+251
+00:21:37,250 --> 00:21:40,710
+طلعوا على الـ table الموجود عندنا طبعا هذا الـ table
+
+252
+00:21:40,710 --> 00:21:46,430
+اللي احنا طبقناه طبقناه على المعادلات اللي احنا 
+
+253
+00:21:46,430 --> 00:21:52,850
+أخدناها قبل شوية نشوف إذا كان عندنا سنة واحدة طبعا
+
+254
+00:21:52,850 --> 00:21:55,350
+هذا كله أنا بتكلم و حكيتلكوا إياه إذا كان عندنا
+
+255
+00:21:55,350 --> 00:22:00,690
+سنة فاكرين week و إذا كان سنة twelve months و إذا 
+
+256
+00:22:00,690 --> 00:22:05,110
+كانت day و إذا كانت quarter طبعا إذا كانت
+
+257
+00:22:05,110 --> 00:22:12,550
+continuous continuous ايش معناه continuous ايش يعني 
+
+258
+00:22:12,550 --> 00:22:19,930
+مستمر تقريبا يعني إذا أنا لو أجيت و قلتلكم أنا أحط 
+
+259
+00:22:19,930 --> 00:22:23,590
+لكم مية دولار و الفائدة بتاعتها تتسبب continuous
+
+260
+00:22:23,590 --> 00:22:29,010
+دائما for infinity هنأجي لمعادلة بتاعتها how we 
+
+261
+00:22:29,010 --> 00:22:34,250
+calculate this هنستخدم المعادلة احنا أشرحلكوا إياها
+
+262
+00:22:34,250 --> 00:22:42,690
+طيب نتطلع احنا إذا كانت T واحد T1 يعني سنة طبعا
+
+263
+00:22:42,690 --> 00:22:52,230
+الـ .. الـ RF 5.8% okay إذا كانت six months الرقم
+
+264
+00:22:52,230 --> 00:22:57,030
+286 من ورا إجا؟ إذا كانت ست شهور توريس اللي
+
+265
+00:22:57,030 --> 00:23:00,370
+خدناها؟ ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور
+
+266
+00:23:00,370 --> 00:23:01,290
+.. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست
+
+267
+00:23:01,290 --> 00:23:02,370
+شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور
+
+268
+00:23:02,370 --> 00:23:03,710
+.. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست
+
+269
+00:23:03,710 --> 00:23:06,170
+شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور
+
+270
+00:23:06,170 --> 00:23:06,410
+.. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست
+
+271
+00:23:06,410 --> 00:23:15,690
+شهور .. ست ش على .. على .. على اتنين جربيها شوف 
+
+272
+00:23:15,690 --> 00:23:20,370
+جربيها على الـ calculator يلا لإن هذا الـ table ممكن
+
+273
+00:23:20,370 --> 00:23:25,330
+يجيكوا مشابه لهم الأرقام
+
+274
+00:23:25,330 --> 00:23:28,730
+في الفائدة إذا كانت سنة هنحسبها هكذا طب إذا كانت
+
+275
+00:23:28,730 --> 00:23:33,690
+ست شهور طبعا
+
+276
+00:23:33,690 --> 00:23:39,610
+طيب إذا كانت quarter عايش نجسمها ايش quarter يعني
+
+277
+00:23:39,610 --> 00:23:43,250
+ربع؟ ربع على أربع على أربع هاي بقاطيكوا إياها طب
+
+278
+00:23:43,250 --> 00:23:51,030
+جدا ايش تطلع؟ اتأكدوا هنقسم الأساس على أربع أساسا
+
+279
+00:23:51,030 --> 00:23:59,630
+هتقسموا الأساس طبعا ما شاء الله عليكم مظبوط طيب إذا
+
+280
+00:23:59,630 --> 00:24:04,330
+كانت one month شهر ع اتناش كدهش؟
+
+281
+00:24:06,830 --> 00:24:12,670
+مظبوط طيب إذا كانت one week مظبوط
+
+282
+00:24:12,670 --> 00:24:17,370
+كم هتطلع؟
+
+283
+00:24:17,370 --> 00:24:24,690
+okay one day طيب إذا نعرف العمود الثاني واضح
+
+284
+00:24:24,690 --> 00:24:31,550
+ماعندناش مشكلة من وين احنا جبناها الشهر هذا one 
+
+285
+00:24:31,550 --> 00:24:36,030
+month هنقسمه ع 12 هذي هنقسمها ع 12 اللي بتاعة الـ
+
+286
+00:24:36,030 --> 00:24:40,730
+one year هنقسمها ع 12 طيب
+
+287
+00:24:40,730 --> 00:24:46,070
+طيب
+
+288
+00:24:46,070 --> 00:24:50,770
+بنا نحسب احنا الـ annualized نحسب الـ annualized
+
+289
+00:24:50,770 --> 00:24:58,330
+بناتنا نحسب الـ annualized اللي
+
+290
+00:24:58,330 --> 00:25:01,430
+هو اللي اكتبه .. هو اللي نشترط .. المعادلة تبعتنا
+
+291
+00:25:01,430 --> 00:25:05,580
+الـ annualized بتلاحظوا الـ one year ما تتغيرش لإنه 
+
+292
+00:25:05,580 --> 00:25:09,260
+احنا standard هذه one year ناخد الـ six months
+
+293
+00:25:09,260 --> 00:25:22,960
+تعرفوا تحسبوها لحالكم الـ six months الـ
+
+294
+00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,500
+six months احسبوها بالمعادلة اللي احنا أعطيناكوا 
+
+295
+00:25:26,500 --> 00:25:29,860
+إياها المعادلة اللي قلنا لكوا فيها اللي هي هذا
+
+296
+00:25:31,980 --> 00:25:37,760
+الأولى بالظبط هذه احسبولى إياها بهذه الطريقة okay
+
+297
+00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:44,760
+أعطوكوا واجب هذه تشوفوها في البيت اه
+
+298
+00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,960
+هذه
+
+299
+00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,960
+احسبوها احسبولى هذه الـ five seven الـ o في five
+
+300
+00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:58,350
+seven إذا كانت six months بتطبيق المعادلة هذه يعني
+
+301
+00:25:58,350 --> 00:26:04,310
+هنا واحد زائد الـ R اللي هو zero five eight طبعا
+
+302
+00:26:04,310 --> 00:26:09,110
+هنقسمها على اتناش في المية وهنا نحط ستة على اتناش
+
+303
+00:26:09,110 --> 00:26:15,370
+بيطلع عن كل جهة طيب
+
+304
+00:26:15,370 --> 00:26:23,690
+طيب هلأ ايش هنعمل واحد زائد طيب احنا على الجدول
+
+305
+00:26:23,690 --> 00:26:28,330
+احنا حلو واحد زائد او five eight هذي احنا نكسبها
+
+306
+00:26:28,330 --> 00:26:36,590
+على اتناش وهذه ستة على اتناش بس هذا الجواب و
+
+307
+00:26:36,590 --> 00:26:40,150
+الباقي بتشتغلوا نفس الفكرة بس بدل ما احنا اتناش
+
+308
+00:26:40,150 --> 00:26:47,750
+نشوف هل هي أسبوع هل هي سنة هل هي ..
+
+309
+00:26:47,750 --> 00:26:51,310
+حاولوا تعملوها في البيت و تجيبوا لي إياها اللقاء
+
+310
+00:26:51,310 --> 00:26:55,520
+الجاي الـ effective annual الجواب الـ effective
+
+311
+00:26:55,520 --> 00:27:07,720
+annual okay اي
+
+312
+00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:11,180
+واحد
+
+313
+00:27:11,180 --> 00:27:18,320
+اي واحد اه
+
+314
+00:27:21,830 --> 00:27:26,790
+واحد point تأكد من هذا الحزب طيب خليها عندك هنا
+
+315
+00:27:26,790 --> 00:27:30,430
+خليها عندكم هذه عملوها واجب homework و جيبولي إياها
+
+316
+00:27:30,430 --> 00:27:36,010
+يوم السبت فمعكم عندكم بال .. احسبوا .. احسبوا بدي
+
+317
+00:27:36,010 --> 00:27:40,710
+أنا تطلعولي الـ .. اعتبروا هذا العمود مش موجود و
+
+318
+00:27:40,710 --> 00:27:46,670
+جيبولي إياها بس هذا المطلوب منكم يعني
+
+319
+00:27:46,670 --> 00:27:51,330
+مطلوب منكوا شغلتان بدي الـ .. بدي هذا العمود له هذا
+
+320
+00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:57,240
+جيبوليا و بدي تجيبولي هذا العمود بس الحل المحلول
+
+321
+00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:02,780
+موجود عندكم لكن انتوا حسبوليا على الحاسبة لأنه أنا
+
+322
+00:28:02,780 --> 00:28:06,500
+شايفة أغلب البنات ما عندهاش على حاسبة فاللي هيستفيد بس
+
+323
+00:28:06,500 --> 00:28:10,920
+مجموعة أربع خمس بنات اللي هيستفيدوا فاروحوا البيت
+
+324
+00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:17,620
+و اعملولي calculations لـ العمودين هدول تمام؟ شوفوا
+
+325
+00:28:17,620 --> 00:28:24,980
+كيف تم الحساب بتاعته عرفنا ايش واجبكم يعني و
+
+326
+00:28:24,980 --> 00:28:29,620
+بتجيبولي إياه اللقاء الجاي عشان نحلكم إياه طيب okay
+
+327
+00:28:29,620 --> 00:28:30,240
+أعطيك العافية
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4110ec68fa1989dc37cec2a1e0e74310e9662551
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 4713, "start": 20.65, "end": 47.13, "text": "بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم بال .. بالمحاضرة الفاتة كنا نحكي عن ال factors اللي بتأثر على أسعار الفوائد okay؟ و بس أنه احنا بس نذكركم أن ال .. ال R ال .. ال .. ال R nominal بتتأثر بال inflation و بتتأثر بال taxation و بتتأثر بال holding period", "tokens": [3555, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 20666, 4386, 20666, 2304, 5016, 46958, 25720, 27188, 9307, 3660, 9122, 8315, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 6771, 13672, 1829, 39894, 10721, 49115, 15844, 5551, 3794, 3615, 9640, 27188, 2407, 16373, 3215, 1392, 22807, 4032, 4724, 3794, 14739, 3224, 1975, 5016, 8315, 4724, 3794, 8717, 8848, 37983, 24793, 14739, 2423, 4386, 2423, 497, 2423, 4386, 2423, 4386, 2423, 497, 41641, 39894, 2655, 10721, 49115, 20666, 15860, 4032, 39894, 2655, 10721, 49115, 20666, 47072, 4032, 39894, 2655, 10721, 49115, 20666, 5061, 2896], "avg_logprob": -0.13697350786431975, "compression_ratio": 1.8048780487804879, 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"probability": 0.9794921875}, {"start": 811.82, "end": 812.18, "word": " الفائد", "probability": 0.7869466145833334}, {"start": 812.18, "end": 812.66, "word": " أقل", "probability": 0.9827473958333334}, {"start": 812.66, "end": 813.72, "word": " تمام", "probability": 0.739501953125}, {"start": 813.72, "end": 814.62, "word": " لإن", "probability": 0.7166341145833334}, {"start": 814.62, "end": 815.08, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.6572265625}, {"start": 815.08, "end": 815.3, "word": " bank", "probability": 0.441162109375}, {"start": 815.3, "end": 815.6, "word": " ميجيش", "probability": 0.91728515625}, {"start": 815.6, "end": 815.92, "word": " يقولك", "probability": 0.9265950520833334}, {"start": 815.92, "end": 816.32, "word": " والله", "probability": 0.8603515625}, {"start": 816.32, "end": 817.64, "word": " بالظبط", "probability": 0.989013671875}, {"start": 817.64, "end": 818.28, "word": " هيجي", "probability": 0.62176513671875}, {"start": 818.28, "end": 818.64, "word": " يقولك", "probability": 0.93359375}, {"start": 818.64, "end": 819.06, "word": " ستة", "probability": 0.91796875}, {"start": 819.06, "end": 819.14, "word": " في", "probability": 0.98583984375}, {"start": 819.14, "end": 819.32, "word": " المية", "probability": 0.986328125}, {"start": 819.32, "end": 819.52, "word": " as", "probability": 0.96484375}, {"start": 819.52, "end": 819.62, "word": " a", "probability": 0.91650390625}, {"start": 819.62, "end": 820.06, "word": " standard", "probability": 0.93505859375}, {"start": 820.06, "end": 821.18, "word": " per", "probability": 0.305419921875}, {"start": 821.18, "end": 821.54, "word": " annum", "probability": 0.98486328125}, {"start": 821.54, "end": 821.78, "word": " per", "probability": 0.27734375}, {"start": 821.78, "end": 822.16, "word": " annum", "probability": 0.976806640625}, {"start": 822.16, "end": 822.44, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.96337890625}, {"start": 822.44, "end": 822.96, "word": " سنويا", "probability": 0.86224365234375}, {"start": 822.96, "end": 824.52, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.84619140625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 31, "seek": 84919, "start": 826.15, "end": 849.19, "text": "فاحنا we need to calculate طيب لما نيجي احكيله بدنا و رابح السيارة على مدة سنتين two years okay six percent لكن it is not six percent it is around eleven to twelve percent لأنه لما احنا بنحسب على مدة سنتين so this is why it is important to calculate the effective annual return just remind our example in when we talk about Coca-Cola", "tokens": [5172, 39319, 8315, 321, 643, 281, 8873, 23032, 1829, 3555, 5296, 15042, 8717, 1829, 7435, 1829, 1975, 5016, 4117, 26895, 3224, 47525, 8315, 4032, 12602, 16758, 5016, 21136, 1829, 9640, 3660, 15844, 3714, 41891, 8608, 29399, 9957, 732, 924, 1392, 2309, 3043, 44381, 309, 307, 406, 2309, 3043, 309, 307, 926, 21090, 281, 14390, 3043, 5296, 33456, 3224, 5296, 15042, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 5016, 35457, 15844, 3714, 41891, 8608, 29399, 9957, 370, 341, 307, 983, 309, 307, 1021, 281, 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"probability": 0.9560546875}, {"start": 842.45, "end": 842.81, "word": " important", "probability": 0.92236328125}, {"start": 842.81, "end": 843.01, "word": " to", "probability": 0.98583984375}, {"start": 843.01, "end": 843.43, "word": " calculate", "probability": 0.955078125}, {"start": 843.43, "end": 843.59, "word": " the", "probability": 0.90234375}, {"start": 843.59, "end": 843.99, "word": " effective", "probability": 0.8095703125}, {"start": 843.99, "end": 844.29, "word": " annual", "probability": 0.96630859375}, {"start": 844.29, "end": 844.67, "word": " return", "probability": 0.763671875}, {"start": 844.67, "end": 845.45, "word": " just", "probability": 0.8857421875}, {"start": 845.45, "end": 846.19, "word": " remind", "probability": 0.8935546875}, {"start": 846.19, "end": 847.29, "word": " our", "probability": 0.91259765625}, {"start": 847.29, "end": 847.67, "word": " example", "probability": 0.9755859375}, {"start": 847.67, "end": 847.91, "word": " in", "probability": 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So this equation, be careful, this equation is applied if we have less than one year, if the timeframe is less than one year. If the timeframe is greater than one year, so we need to calculate this equation. إذا كان أكتر من سنة، هنستخدم هذه ال equation. 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{"start": 1692.02, "end": 1692.54, "word": " اعملولى", "probability": 0.78681640625}, {"start": 1692.54, "end": 1693.14, "word": " calculations", "probability": 0.88916015625}, {"start": 1693.14, "end": 1693.42, "word": " ل", "probability": 0.623046875}, {"start": 1693.42, "end": 1694.0, "word": " العمودين", "probability": 0.83538818359375}, {"start": 1694.0, "end": 1694.34, "word": " هدون", "probability": 0.84228515625}, {"start": 1694.34, "end": 1697.26, "word": " تمام؟", "probability": 0.6292317708333334}, {"start": 1697.26, "end": 1697.62, "word": " شوفوا", "probability": 0.96484375}, {"start": 1697.62, "end": 1698.1, "word": " كيف", "probability": 0.9755859375}, {"start": 1698.1, "end": 1699.62, "word": " تم", "probability": 0.8935546875}, {"start": 1699.62, "end": 1699.9, "word": " الحس", "probability": 0.84521484375}, {"start": 1699.9, "end": 1700.36, "word": " بتاعتهم", "probability": 0.8892822265625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 62, "seek": 171024, "start": 1702.74, "end": 1710.24, "text": "عرفنا أيش واجبكم يعني و بتجيبولييا اللقاء الجاي عشان نحلكم اليها طيب okay اعطيك العافية", "tokens": [3615, 28480, 8315, 36632, 8592, 4032, 26108, 3555, 24793, 37495, 22653, 4032, 39894, 7435, 1829, 3555, 12610, 1829, 25528, 13672, 4587, 16606, 25724, 47302, 6225, 8592, 7649, 8717, 5016, 1211, 24793, 45595, 11296, 23032, 1829, 3555, 1392, 1975, 3615, 9566, 1829, 4117, 18863, 31845, 10632], "avg_logprob": -0.25101902044337726, "compression_ratio": 1.3220338983050848, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1702.74, "end": 1703.16, "word": "عرفنا", "probability": 0.9690755208333334}, {"start": 1703.16, "end": 1703.32, "word": " أيش", "probability": 0.801513671875}, {"start": 1703.32, "end": 1703.66, "word": " واجبكم", "probability": 0.7630615234375}, {"start": 1703.66, "end": 1703.94, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.832275390625}, {"start": 1703.94, "end": 1704.98, "word": " و", "probability": 0.332763671875}, {"start": 1704.98, "end": 1705.54, "word": " بتجيبولييا", "probability": 0.8433663504464286}, {"start": 1705.54, "end": 1705.86, "word": " اللقاء", "probability": 0.9777018229166666}, {"start": 1705.86, "end": 1706.22, "word": " الجاي", "probability": 0.737548828125}, {"start": 1706.22, "end": 1706.82, "word": " عشان", "probability": 0.9685872395833334}, {"start": 1706.82, "end": 1707.16, "word": " نحلكم", "probability": 0.735595703125}, {"start": 1707.16, "end": 1707.74, "word": " اليها", "probability": 0.5784912109375}, {"start": 1707.74, "end": 1708.74, "word": " طيب", "probability": 0.9480794270833334}, {"start": 1708.74, "end": 1709.62, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.56640625}, {"start": 1709.62, "end": 1709.88, "word": " اعطيك", "probability": 0.820654296875}, {"start": 1709.88, "end": 1710.24, "word": " العافية", "probability": 0.8159993489583334}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 1711.682125, "duration_after_vad": 1596.4443749999964}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..24475a63811f29103a6629c62bd4f5d858124ddc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1308 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:25,490
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم بال .. بالمحاضرة الفاتة كنا
+
+2
+00:00:25,490 --> 00:00:31,190
+نحكي عن ال factors اللي بتأثر على أسعار الفوائد
+
+3
+00:00:31,190 --> 00:00:39,570
+okay؟ و بس أنه احنا بس نذكركم أن ال .. ال R ال ..
+
+4
+00:00:39,570 --> 00:00:44,570
+ال .. ال R nominal بتتأثر بال inflation و بتتأثر
+
+5
+00:00:44,570 --> 00:00:50,090
+بال taxation و بتتأثر بال holding periodOkay هذا
+
+6
+00:00:50,090 --> 00:00:55,050
+المرة الفاتحة حكينا فيه قولنا ال inflation when
+
+7
+00:00:55,050 --> 00:01:01,250
+inflation increase R increase increase and when
+
+8
+00:01:01,250 --> 00:01:07,670
+tax increase the R also the R should decrease I
+
+9
+00:01:07,670 --> 00:01:11,730
+mean the R after tax the holding period
+
+10
+00:01:16,300 --> 00:01:19,280
+when the holding period increase, r should
+
+11
+00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:24,000
+increase يعني إذا كانت الفترة الزمنية طويلة زي ما
+
+12
+00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:28,560
+احنا شوفنا كل ما كان العقد أو الفائدة أعلى وكل ما
+
+13
+00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,160
+كان ال inflation عالي كل ما كان ال r أعلى هذا
+
+14
+00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:40,360
+الكلام اللي احنا حكينا فيه طيب كنا
+
+15
+00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,580
+احنا نحكي بال real interest rate
+
+16
+00:01:46,250 --> 00:01:49,150
+حنشوف طريقة احتساب ال real interest rate if we
+
+17
+00:01:49,150 --> 00:01:52,230
+invest less than one year and if we invest more
+
+18
+00:01:52,230 --> 00:01:55,590
+than one year يعني إذا إحنا بنستثمر بأقل من سنة أو
+
+19
+00:01:55,590 --> 00:02:01,150
+إذا بنستثمر أكتر من سنة okay effective
+
+20
+00:02:01,150 --> 00:02:05,350
+annual annual معناها سنوي effective annual return
+
+21
+00:02:05,350 --> 00:02:09,690
+يعني إذا كانت إحنا بناخد عائد سنة سنة أو أقل
+
+22
+00:02:11,090 --> 00:02:13,690
+percentage increase in fund invested over a one
+
+23
+00:02:13,690 --> 00:02:17,770
+year horizon معناه كده انه كل ما احنا بنعيد ..
+
+24
+00:02:17,770 --> 00:02:20,230
+بنزيد عدد سنوات الاستثمار كل ما ال interest rate
+
+25
+00:02:20,230 --> 00:02:24,790
+بتزيد هذا كنا متفقين عليه زمان او ال .. the last
+
+26
+00:02:24,790 --> 00:02:29,250
+meeting effective annual return هذا is stand for
+
+27
+00:02:29,250 --> 00:02:34,030
+effective annual return percentage increase يعني
+
+28
+00:02:34,030 --> 00:02:37,860
+كل ما زادت الفائدةin funds invested over a one
+
+29
+00:02:37,860 --> 00:02:41,320
+year horizon كل ما بيزيد الفترة الزمنية كل ما
+
+30
+00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,360
+بيزيد العائد اللي احنا بدنايه and I give you
+
+31
+00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:49,340
+example last meeting Bonn Bank of Palestine or the
+
+32
+00:02:49,340 --> 00:02:53,870
+Islamic Bank give you مرابحة for one yearhe may
+
+33
+00:02:53,870 --> 00:02:56,790
+take .. the bank of .. the Islamic bank may take
+
+34
+00:02:56,790 --> 00:03:00,890
+six percent if for two years nine percent if for
+
+35
+00:03:00,890 --> 00:03:06,190
+three years maybe twelve percent so the .. the
+
+36
+00:03:06,190 --> 00:03:08,850
+interest rate is a positive function with the time
+
+37
+00:03:08,850 --> 00:03:12,050
+horizon يعني أسعار الفائدة هي positive function
+
+38
+00:03:12,050 --> 00:03:16,530
+يعني إلها علاقة إيجابية ب .. بأسعار الفوائد يعني
+
+39
+00:03:16,530 --> 00:03:19,170
+كل ما .. أسعار الفوائد .. كل ما الفترات الزمنية
+
+40
+00:03:19,170 --> 00:03:22,780
+زادت كل ما سعر الفائدة بزيدطيب how we calculate
+
+41
+00:03:22,780 --> 00:03:25,240
+the effective annual return؟ كيف نحسب ال effective
+
+42
+00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:29,000
+annual return؟ to calculate the effective annual
+
+43
+00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,320
+return one plus effective annual return is equal
+
+44
+00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:38,380
+one plus risk free time .. time for instance how
+
+45
+00:03:38,380 --> 00:03:42,240
+many times per year because we have two equations
+
+46
+00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:46,060
+this equations if we invest less than one year إذا
+
+47
+00:03:46,060 --> 00:03:50,310
+أحنا بنستثمر بأقل من سنةإذا احنا بنستثمر for
+
+48
+00:03:50,310 --> 00:03:57,890
+instance less than one year نستثمر أخر من سنة so
+
+49
+00:03:57,890 --> 00:04:03,750
+it is equal one plus r the risk free or any r over
+
+50
+00:04:03,750 --> 00:04:12,270
+one divided by T for instance ع سبيل مثل if we
+
+51
+00:04:12,270 --> 00:04:18,080
+investfor only three months اذا احنا بنعمل استثمار
+
+52
+00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:23,480
+لتلات شهور only three months
+
+53
+00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:29,780
+اذا احنا بنستثمر لتلات شهور you
+
+54
+00:04:29,780 --> 00:04:32,300
+ask yourself how many times the interest rate is
+
+55
+00:04:32,300 --> 00:04:37,060
+calculated in a year كم مرة بتنحسب أسعار الفائدة
+
+56
+00:04:37,060 --> 00:04:40,980
+يعني اذا احنا بنحسبها تلات شهور من جولها اللي هو
+
+57
+00:04:40,980 --> 00:04:47,050
+تلاتة عاطم عاشرال T ثلاثة على اتناش طب لو احنا
+
+58
+00:04:47,050 --> 00:04:54,190
+نحسبها two weeks اسبوعين يعني أخدنا مرابح لمدة
+
+59
+00:04:54,190 --> 00:04:58,870
+اسبوعين دائما
+
+60
+00:04:58,870 --> 00:05:03,730
+المخصوم و المخصوم عليه لازم يكونوا متشابهين يعني
+
+61
+00:05:03,730 --> 00:05:08,930
+مانفعش اقول اتنين على اتناش مانفع لان اتنين بتصير
+
+62
+00:05:08,930 --> 00:05:16,480
+شهرين طب اسبوعينع السنة بدنا نحسبها كام؟ اتنين و
+
+63
+00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:23,600
+خمسين انتبهوا يعني ال week السنة
+
+64
+00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:28,680
+ال year is equal fifty two week or fifty two weeks
+
+65
+00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:34,700
+ال year بتساوي twelve months معروف هذا الكلام okay
+
+66
+00:05:35,740 --> 00:05:40,720
+ال year بتساوي three six five days و some people
+
+67
+00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:44,880
+ممكن يعملوا three sixty يعني على تلت مية و خمس و
+
+68
+00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:49,940
+ستين ولا تلت مية و ستين واحد three sixty إذا احنا
+
+69
+00:05:49,940 --> 00:05:54,380
+أخدنا weekly أخدنا monthly أخدنا daily ممكن يكون
+
+70
+00:05:54,380 --> 00:06:00,580
+ال year نحسبها quarterly أكم quarter في السنة four
+
+71
+00:06:00,580 --> 00:06:06,300
+four quarterاربع .. اربع سنهار طيب هلو لو احنا
+
+72
+00:06:06,300 --> 00:06:14,240
+أخدنا مثال for instance if R is twelve percent R
+
+73
+00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:18,980
+is twelve percent R
+
+74
+00:06:18,980 --> 00:06:29,760
+is twelve percent and T is three months وال T تلت
+
+75
+00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:35,850
+.. تلت شهوريعني احنا if we get for instance مرابحة
+
+76
+00:06:35,850 --> 00:06:41,350
+if we get مرابحة for three months and يعني اذا
+
+77
+00:06:41,350 --> 00:06:45,690
+أخدنا مرابحة for three months and the interest or
+
+78
+00:06:45,690 --> 00:06:52,930
+the مرابحة rate is twelve percent a year calculate
+
+79
+00:06:52,930 --> 00:06:55,550
+the effective annual return ده نحسب ال effective
+
+80
+00:06:55,550 --> 00:07:01,410
+annual return okayال effective annual return له
+
+81
+00:07:01,410 --> 00:07:06,870
+هذا المعنى is equal واحد plus أربعاش في المية طيب
+
+82
+00:07:06,870 --> 00:07:10,610
+هل أتمعاش في المية هذه a year أتمعاش في المية
+
+83
+00:07:10,610 --> 00:07:15,890
+بالسنة لازم نعملها ايش بال .. احنا عندنا تلات شهور
+
+84
+00:07:15,890 --> 00:07:20,930
+وبالتالي نوحدها على كام نقسمها أتمعاش okay لأنه
+
+85
+00:07:20,930 --> 00:07:28,680
+شايفين R F في T okayone divided قداش او اللي هو ان
+
+86
+00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:38,460
+اكم شهر حنستثمرها تلاتة على اتناش okay فبتصير
+
+87
+00:07:38,460 --> 00:07:44,100
+اتناش في المية ع اتناش بتطلع one point oh one over
+
+88
+00:07:44,100 --> 00:07:50,560
+تلاتة ع اتناش تلاتة واحد ع تلاتة اربعةيعني بيطلع
+
+89
+00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:54,160
+عنكم الجواب بهذا الشكل طبعا انكم بالقلعة الحاسفة
+
+90
+00:07:54,160 --> 00:08:01,340
+بتحسبوها؟ في حد ماعرفش استخدم القلعة الحاسفة؟
+
+91
+00:08:01,340 --> 00:08:06,900
+وين القلعة الحاسفة يا عزيزي؟ احسبولي كام تطلع شوف
+
+92
+00:08:16,460 --> 00:08:21,040
+12% ع 12
+
+93
+00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:25,340
+تطلع 1% مظبوط؟
+
+94
+00:08:25,340 --> 00:08:34,080
+1% و 1 و 1 و 1% مظبوط؟ طب اه ال time ما هو هاي ال
+
+95
+00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,680
+time ال time اللي هو ال risk free as a function in
+
+96
+00:08:37,680 --> 00:08:42,520
+time يعني ال risk free كمعرفة بالناحية الزمن يعني
+
+97
+00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:48,240
+12% احنا بالسنة طب الشهر كام؟عشان نوحد المقامات
+
+98
+00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:54,880
+فبتطلع بالشهر اللي هو عندك واحد تمانية في أستراتع
+
+99
+00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:59,360
+اتناشت كده بتطلع one
+
+100
+00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:03,600
+point zero zero two طبعا بتجيب الواحد بتصير zero
+
+101
+00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:04,660
+zero two
+
+102
+00:09:09,300 --> 00:09:16,680
+إذا كلامك صحيح كام بتطلع؟ حطيها
+
+103
+00:09:16,680 --> 00:09:26,240
+بور تلاتة ع اتناش اه قص ربع كام تطلع؟ طيب okay
+
+104
+00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:30,160
+ناخد
+
+105
+00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,160
+مثال تاني عشان تفهموه أكتر ناخد مثال تاني okay
+
+106
+00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,460
+مثال
+
+107
+00:09:36,460 --> 00:09:37,880
+تاني خدوا another example
+
+108
+00:09:42,560 --> 00:09:47,720
+ناخد مثال تاني if you take for instance a loan
+
+109
+00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:52,300
+from bank of Palestine, loan from bank of
+
+110
+00:09:52,300 --> 00:09:59,360
+Palestine for nine months لتسعة
+
+111
+00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:03,540
+شهور and the annual interest
+
+112
+00:10:11,260 --> 00:10:21,280
+is fifteen percent what is the what is effective
+
+113
+00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:29,120
+annual return طيب نحسن effective
+
+114
+00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:35,600
+annual return سهل one plus 15% لأن شهرية بنحولها
+
+115
+00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:40,800
+شهرية يصيب على 12Okay over تسعة على اتماش that's
+
+116
+00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:44,720
+it شوفوا كده هتاخد معاكم بالحال ثانية two seconds
+
+117
+00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:48,880
+نضربهم في عشرة هتكون عشرين ثانية يعني نضرب انه
+
+118
+00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:53,540
+الفرق بين المدرس للطالب عشر مرات يعني نعتبر
+
+119
+00:10:53,540 --> 00:10:58,560
+ثانيتين في عشرة اضربهم في عشرين اربعين ثانية يعني
+
+120
+00:10:58,560 --> 00:11:02,540
+it doesn't take that much time لكن المشكلة وين
+
+121
+00:11:02,540 --> 00:11:08,260
+المشكلة you practice this only on your examيعني
+
+122
+00:11:08,260 --> 00:11:11,060
+انتوا بت .. بتروح بتحلوا الأسئلة بس في الامتحان
+
+123
+00:11:11,060 --> 00:11:14,080
+تمام؟
+
+124
+00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:19,000
+عشان احنا نحل مسائل زي هيك حلوا السؤال أول مرة و
+
+125
+00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,760
+رغم ان انتوا فاهمين روح حلوه كمان مرة ليش احنا ..
+
+126
+00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,280
+ايش بنا نهدف؟ نهدف انه كل ما نحله كمان مرة كل ما
+
+127
+00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:29,710
+نخفض الزمن اللي محتاجينه عشان نحل السؤالاحنا
+
+128
+00:11:29,710 --> 00:11:32,090
+متأكدين you understand this ان انتوا فاهمين كلام
+
+129
+00:11:32,090 --> 00:11:35,030
+هذا مافيش مشكلة عندنا لكن المشكلة هو يعني when you
+
+130
+00:11:35,030 --> 00:11:37,530
+.. you are using your calculator it takes time
+
+131
+00:11:37,530 --> 00:11:40,070
+because you don't have that experience in dealing
+
+132
+00:11:40,070 --> 00:11:43,830
+with the calculator so in order to overcome this
+
+133
+00:11:43,830 --> 00:11:47,790
+problem you have to practice how to use the
+
+134
+00:11:47,790 --> 00:11:51,710
+calculator لأنه انا ب .. ب .. لما كنت ألف ع الطلاب
+
+135
+00:11:51,710 --> 00:11:55,170
+و الطالبات في الامتحان كان the majority of them
+
+136
+00:11:55,170 --> 00:11:59,990
+are struggling in using their calculatorsلما
+
+137
+00:11:59,990 --> 00:12:03,370
+أغلبهم كانوا and they are they lost their time
+
+138
+00:12:03,370 --> 00:12:08,710
+because of this لأنه ضيع واجد عشان بس خاطر انه how
+
+139
+00:12:08,710 --> 00:12:12,470
+to use the calculator so be careful on this point
+
+140
+00:12:12,470 --> 00:12:16,810
+zero zero nine طب بعد ما نجيب الواحد اه بعد ما
+
+141
+00:12:16,810 --> 00:12:21,270
+نجيب الواحد okay so
+
+142
+00:12:21,270 --> 00:12:23,730
+this is the effective annual return okay
+
+143
+00:12:29,420 --> 00:12:32,940
+إيش المفهوم العملي؟ المفهوم العملي للناس لما نحكي
+
+144
+00:12:32,940 --> 00:12:38,280
+لها الفائدة 9% they know the 9% تبهوا what it
+
+145
+00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:42,380
+means from the practical point of view when we are
+
+146
+00:12:42,380 --> 00:12:45,180
+telling people the interest rate is 9% they think
+
+147
+00:12:45,180 --> 00:12:51,180
+this 9% is for the .. for the مرابحة or for the
+
+148
+00:12:51,180 --> 00:12:55,620
+interest and this is nominal this is not realبقى
+
+149
+00:12:55,620 --> 00:12:58,500
+if we consider the time frame يعني لما نروحنا
+
+150
+00:12:58,500 --> 00:13:02,920
+عالبنك نقوله قداش المرابح على السيارة بنياها
+
+151
+00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:07,360
+انتوبوا يا بنات هذا سؤال كويس نقولهم .. نقول للبنك
+
+152
+00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,180
+قداش المرابح على السيارة هيقولنا المرابح على
+
+153
+00:13:10,180 --> 00:13:16,900
+السيارة 6% بقى in reality is not 6% ممكن يكون أكتر
+
+154
+00:13:16,900 --> 00:13:21,320
+من 6% okayso we need to calculate the effective
+
+155
+00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,920
+annual return طبعا ستة في المية سنوية إذا كانت
+
+156
+00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:30,080
+أكتر من سنة هتكون أكتر من ستة في المية إذا كانت
+
+157
+00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:35,600
+أقل من سنة هتكون الفائد أقل تمام لإن ال bank ميجيش
+
+158
+00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:39,620
+يقولك والله بالظبط هيجي يقولك ستة في المية as a
+
+159
+00:13:39,620 --> 00:13:44,520
+standard per annum per annum يعني سنويا okay
+
+160
+00:13:46,150 --> 00:13:49,410
+فاحنا we need to calculate طيب لما نيجي احكيله
+
+161
+00:13:49,410 --> 00:13:53,070
+بدنا و رابح السيارة على مدة سنتين two years okay
+
+162
+00:13:53,070 --> 00:13:57,130
+six percent لكن it is not six percent it is around
+
+163
+00:13:57,130 --> 00:14:00,250
+eleven to twelve percent لأنه لما احنا بنحسب على
+
+164
+00:14:00,250 --> 00:14:03,010
+مدة سنتين so this is why it is important to
+
+165
+00:14:03,010 --> 00:14:06,190
+calculate the effective annual return just remind
+
+166
+00:14:06,190 --> 00:14:10,990
+our example in when we talk about Coca-ColaOkay,
+
+167
+00:14:11,150 --> 00:14:14,110
+so this is why it is important to calculate or to
+
+168
+00:14:14,110 --> 00:14:16,930
+estimate the effective annual return. So this
+
+169
+00:14:16,930 --> 00:14:22,150
+equation, be careful, this equation is applied if
+
+170
+00:14:22,150 --> 00:14:26,430
+we have less than one year, if the timeframe is
+
+171
+00:14:26,430 --> 00:14:28,790
+less than one year. If the timeframe is greater
+
+172
+00:14:28,790 --> 00:14:32,410
+than one year, so we need to calculate this
+
+173
+00:14:32,410 --> 00:14:37,030
+equation. إذا كان أكتر من سنة، هنستخدم هذه ال
+
+174
+00:14:37,030 --> 00:14:38,590
+equation. What is the difference?
+
+175
+00:14:43,030 --> 00:14:47,850
+إيش الفرق؟ اتطلعوا أنتوا على ال .. على ال annual
+
+176
+00:14:47,850 --> 00:14:53,970
+.. ال annual return، so one plus effective annual
+
+177
+00:14:53,970 --> 00:15:00,250
+return over power T minus one divided by T، T is
+
+178
+00:15:00,250 --> 00:15:03,050
+the time، so T
+
+179
+00:15:10,350 --> 00:15:14,030
+T in all cases is the time, the time frame or the
+
+180
+00:15:14,030 --> 00:15:17,830
+time horizon okay or the .. the time that you ..
+
+181
+00:15:17,830 --> 00:15:20,770
+you invest your money يعني ممكن يكون less than one
+
+182
+00:15:20,770 --> 00:15:24,670
+year ممكن يكون more than one year The annual
+
+183
+00:15:24,670 --> 00:15:27,690
+average
+
+184
+00:15:27,690 --> 00:15:31,390
+return or the annual return طبعا ليش احنا ماحكيناش
+
+185
+00:15:31,390 --> 00:15:36,260
+effectivethis is not effective هذا مش effective
+
+186
+00:15:36,260 --> 00:15:39,340
+لأنه is greater than one year أكتر من سنة and
+
+187
+00:15:39,340 --> 00:15:44,080
+definitely it will be greater than the effective
+
+188
+00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:51,100
+فهي ساوي one plus effective annual return times T
+
+189
+00:15:51,100 --> 00:15:55,740
+or power T minus one divided by T لو أجينا احنا
+
+190
+00:15:55,740 --> 00:16:02,040
+نرجع لمثال المرابحةلو جينا مثال مرابحة لو حكيناكم
+
+191
+00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,340
+for instance the effective annual return is twelve
+
+192
+00:16:06,340 --> 00:16:10,060
+percent twelve
+
+193
+00:16:10,060 --> 00:16:16,240
+percent and the مرابحة is for five years المرابح
+
+194
+00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:22,680
+لكم؟ ال tea قديش صارت؟ five years okay calculate
+
+195
+00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:32,340
+APR احسبوا ال annualized return طبعا ال annualized
+
+196
+00:16:32,340 --> 00:16:36,140
+return بيساوي one plus ال effective twelve percent
+
+197
+00:16:36,140 --> 00:16:43,840
+okay power five minus one divided by five بس طبعا
+
+198
+00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,820
+لما نيجي في الامتحان لما نيجي في الامتحان و احنا
+
+199
+00:16:47,820 --> 00:16:52,040
+نشوف معادلة زي هذه يعني هيك لو هذا عليه تلات درجات
+
+200
+00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,780
+اخدتوا علامتين قبل ما انتوا توصلوا للجواب النهائي
+
+201
+00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:04,720
+Okay بتطلع كام point one five يعني خمسة .. fifteen
+
+202
+00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:11,620
+percent بتطلع الجواب fifteen percent okay طيب if
+
+203
+00:17:11,620 --> 00:17:13,400
+they .. خلينا ناخد كمان مثال
+
+204
+00:17:18,620 --> 00:17:22,940
+مش شرق، ضخم عادى، يعني لو خلطيها point fifteen، هى
+
+205
+00:17:22,940 --> 00:17:32,060
+fifteen percent، اه، انا ايه؟ ال effective، اه، هى
+
+206
+00:17:32,060 --> 00:17:39,320
+سنة واحدة، سنة اذا
+
+207
+00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:44,420
+كان اقل من سنة، بنفشح العهد، اذا كانت اكثر من سنة،
+
+208
+00:17:44,420 --> 00:17:51,220
+طب اذا كانت سنة و اشى؟بدك شوفي جربيها شوف و بعدين
+
+209
+00:17:51,220 --> 00:17:58,560
+راجعوني لو كانت تمانتاشر شهر يا بناتي ما هو كيف ده
+
+210
+00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:06,580
+أشتغل هل أحط تمانتاشر فاكروا فيها make up في your
+
+211
+00:18:06,580 --> 00:18:11,820
+minds ممكن نحسبها واحدة نص او طريقة تانية باعتبرها
+
+212
+00:18:11,820 --> 00:18:16,120
+أقل من سنة بعمل تمانتاشر شهرع طمعاش فبتعرف واحد و
+
+213
+00:18:16,120 --> 00:18:19,120
+نص على طمعاش .. على .. بكسم الفائد ع طمعاش بطلع
+
+214
+00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:23,180
+عند الجواد في عدة طرح للحل يعني ممكن زي ما اتفضلت
+
+215
+00:18:23,180 --> 00:18:25,960
+هاي هان انه ا .. واحد و نص على واحد و نص بيمشي
+
+216
+00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:30,320
+الحل او اشترى المعادلة التانية 18 ع 12 و اكسم
+
+217
+00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:38,820
+الفائد ع 12 وخلصنا الحل okay so be careful تمام؟
+
+218
+00:18:38,820 --> 00:18:45,580
+أي سؤال يا بنات في ال .. الفرق؟حسب ما قالوا البنات
+
+219
+00:18:45,580 --> 00:18:51,720
+انا 15% okay؟
+
+220
+00:18:51,720 --> 00:19:00,100
+في حد اللي سؤال؟ any question؟ بنات انا شايف في
+
+221
+00:19:00,100 --> 00:19:04,280
+بنات معاهم مش قالات حاسبة يعني بس اربع خمس بنات
+
+222
+00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:08,200
+معاهم قالات حاسبة فانا يعني هذا في indicator عندي
+
+223
+00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:13,190
+ان انتوا you try these questions in your examإنه
+
+224
+00:19:13,190 --> 00:19:18,010
+بتجربوا هذه الأسئلة في الامتحان وبالتالي أنا مش
+
+225
+00:19:18,010 --> 00:19:24,130
+عارف it is up to you يعني انا .. يعني زي ما
+
+226
+00:19:24,130 --> 00:19:27,110
+بيقولوا المثل يعني you can drive the horse to the
+
+227
+00:19:27,110 --> 00:19:30,710
+water but you cannot force him to drink يعني ممكن
+
+228
+00:19:30,710 --> 00:19:34,110
+تاخد الحصان للمي بس مابنقدرش نقوله اشرب احنا
+
+229
+00:19:34,110 --> 00:19:37,820
+بنفهمكم بس مابنقدرش نقولكم انجحوالأنه انا شايف ال
+
+230
+00:19:37,820 --> 00:19:40,380
+majority one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
+
+231
+00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,980
+eight, nine, ten, twelve, fourteen, fifteen,
+
+232
+00:19:44,140 --> 00:19:47,740
+sixteen about twenty-five students of thirty-five
+
+233
+00:19:47,740 --> 00:19:54,040
+they leave their calculators and enjoying in the
+
+234
+00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:58,140
+house or houses يعني القلاد الحاسمة مبسوطة في
+
+235
+00:19:58,140 --> 00:20:02,060
+البيوت رغم ان انا في التعليمات قلتلكم جيبوا القلاد
+
+236
+00:20:02,060 --> 00:20:05,960
+الحاسمة، مظبوط؟ okay it is not my problem then
+
+237
+00:20:10,930 --> 00:20:18,190
+انشوف هاي عندكم اللي في البيت ترجع للألحاس بتاعتها
+
+238
+00:20:18,190 --> 00:20:21,950
+and they .. and she apply this بتحاول تطبق الكلام
+
+239
+00:20:21,950 --> 00:20:26,750
+هذا لإن أنا ممكن أجيب الكتابل and fill this space
+
+240
+00:20:26,750 --> 00:20:35,950
+يعني بجيب الكتابل و انتوا عبوا الفرار لازم
+
+241
+00:20:35,950 --> 00:20:43,660
+يساووا بعضexactly لازم هنجيب
+
+242
+00:20:43,660 --> 00:20:49,380
+أسئلة بتلات أشهر انا مابحبش يعني أخدعكم يعني هجيب
+
+243
+00:20:49,380 --> 00:20:52,160
+تلات أشهر و باسبوعين و بشهر و بشهرين و بيوم كمان
+
+244
+00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:57,800
+هجيب و هجيب أسئلة تمنتاشر شهر و تسعتاشر شهر لأ
+
+245
+00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:02,180
+يعني هو إذا سؤال واحد اتوقعوا واحد من هدول هو سؤال
+
+246
+00:21:02,180 --> 00:21:08,600
+واحد إذا أسبوعين يا بنات إذا كانت أسبوعينإذا كانت
+
+247
+00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,980
+اسبوعين انت تطلع على ال T بنقسم ال T على 52 و
+
+248
+00:21:12,980 --> 00:21:23,940
+بنقدر اللي هو عندك اسبوعين على 52 ها دي فهمتي اه
+
+249
+00:21:23,940 --> 00:21:30,420
+360 او 365 يعني بدناش ندخل ليش 360 و ليش 365
+
+250
+00:21:30,420 --> 00:21:36,680
+تنتنصح نعتبرها طيب نتطلع على ال compound rates
+
+251
+00:21:37,250 --> 00:21:40,710
+طلعوا على ال table الموجود عندنا طبعا هذا ال table
+
+252
+00:21:40,710 --> 00:21:46,430
+اللي احنا طبقناه طبقناه على المعادلات اللي احنا
+
+253
+00:21:46,430 --> 00:21:52,850
+أخدناها قبل شوية نشوف إذا كان عندنا سنة واحدة طبعا
+
+254
+00:21:52,850 --> 00:21:55,350
+هذا كله انا بتاوم و حكيتلكوا إياها إذا كان عندنا
+
+255
+00:21:55,350 --> 00:22:00,690
+سنة فاكرين week و إذا كان سنة twelve months و إذا
+
+256
+00:22:00,690 --> 00:22:05,110
+كانت day و إذا كانت quarter طبعا إذا كانت
+
+257
+00:22:05,110 --> 00:22:12,550
+continuouscontinuous ايش معناه continuous ايش يعني
+
+258
+00:22:12,550 --> 00:22:19,930
+مستمر تقريبا يعني اذا انا لو اجيت و قلتلكم انا احط
+
+259
+00:22:19,930 --> 00:22:23,590
+لكم مية دولار و الفائدة بتاعتها تتسبب continuous
+
+260
+00:22:23,590 --> 00:22:29,010
+دائما for infinity هنيجي لمعادلة بتاعتها how we
+
+261
+00:22:29,010 --> 00:22:34,250
+calculate this هنستخدم المعادلة احنا اشرحكوا إياها
+
+262
+00:22:34,250 --> 00:22:42,690
+طيب نتطلع احنا اذا كانت T واحدT1 يعني سنة طبعا
+
+263
+00:22:42,690 --> 00:22:52,230
+ال .. ال RF 5.8% okay إذا كانت six months الرقم
+
+264
+00:22:52,230 --> 00:22:57,030
+286 من ورا إجا؟ إذا كانت ست شهور توريس اللي
+
+265
+00:22:57,030 --> 00:23:00,370
+خدحناها؟ ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور
+
+266
+00:23:00,370 --> 00:23:01,290
+.. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست
+
+267
+00:23:01,290 --> 00:23:02,370
+شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور
+
+268
+00:23:02,370 --> 00:23:03,710
+.. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست
+
+269
+00:23:03,710 --> 00:23:06,170
+شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور
+
+270
+00:23:06,170 --> 00:23:06,410
+.. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست
+
+271
+00:23:06,410 --> 00:23:15,690
+شهور .. ست شعلى .. على .. على اتنين جربيها شوف
+
+272
+00:23:15,690 --> 00:23:20,370
+جربيها على ال calculator يلا لإن هذا ال table ممكن
+
+273
+00:23:20,370 --> 00:23:25,330
+يجيكوا مشابه إلهم الأرقى
+
+274
+00:23:25,330 --> 00:23:28,730
+في الفائدة إذا كانت سنة هنحسبها هكذا طب إذا كانت
+
+275
+00:23:28,730 --> 00:23:33,690
+ست شهور طبعا
+
+276
+00:23:33,690 --> 00:23:39,610
+طيب إذا كانت quarter عايش نجسمهاإيش quarter يعني
+
+277
+00:23:39,610 --> 00:23:43,250
+ربع؟ ربع على أربع على أربع هاي بقاطيكوا إياها طب
+
+278
+00:23:43,250 --> 00:23:51,030
+جداش تطلع؟ اتأكدوا هنقسم الأساس على أربع أساسي
+
+279
+00:23:51,030 --> 00:23:59,630
+هتقسم الأساس طبعا ما شاء الله عليكم مظبوط طيب إذا
+
+280
+00:23:59,630 --> 00:24:04,330
+كانت one month شهر ع اتناش كدهش؟
+
+281
+00:24:06,830 --> 00:24:12,670
+مصبوط طيب إذا كانت one week مصبوط
+
+282
+00:24:12,670 --> 00:24:17,370
+كم هتطلع؟
+
+283
+00:24:17,370 --> 00:24:24,690
+okay one day طيب إذا نعرف العمود التاني مواضح
+
+284
+00:24:24,690 --> 00:24:31,550
+ماعناش مشكلة من وين احنا جبناها الشهر هذا one
+
+285
+00:24:31,550 --> 00:24:36,030
+month هنجسمه ع 12 هذي هنجسمها ع 12اللي بتاعة ال
+
+286
+00:24:36,030 --> 00:24:40,730
+one year هنجسمها ع 12 طيب
+
+287
+00:24:40,730 --> 00:24:46,070
+طيب
+
+288
+00:24:46,070 --> 00:24:50,770
+بنا نحسب احنا ال annualized نحسب ال annualized
+
+289
+00:24:50,770 --> 00:24:58,330
+بناتنا نحسب ال annualized اللي
+
+290
+00:24:58,330 --> 00:25:01,430
+هو اللي اكتوه .. هو اللي نشترك .. المعادلة تبعتنا
+
+291
+00:25:01,430 --> 00:25:05,580
+ال annualizedبتلاحظوا ال one year ماتتغيرش لإنه
+
+292
+00:25:05,580 --> 00:25:09,260
+احنا standard هذه one year ناخد ال six months
+
+293
+00:25:09,260 --> 00:25:22,960
+تعرفوا تحسبوها لحالكم ال six months ال
+
+294
+00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,500
+six months احسبوها بالمعادلة اللي احنا اعطاناكوا
+
+295
+00:25:26,500 --> 00:25:29,860
+إياها المعادلة اللي قلنالكوا فيها اللي هي هذا
+
+296
+00:25:31,980 --> 00:25:37,760
+الأولى بالظبط هذه احسبولىها بهذه الطريقة okay
+
+297
+00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:44,760
+اعطوك المياه واجب هذه تشوفوها في البيت اه
+
+298
+00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,960
+هذه
+
+299
+00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,960
+احسبوها احسبولى هذه ال five seven ال o في five
+
+300
+00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:58,350
+seven اذا كانت six months بتطبيق المعادلة هذهيعني
+
+301
+00:25:58,350 --> 00:26:04,310
+هنا واحد زائد ال R اللي هو zero five eight طبعا
+
+302
+00:26:04,310 --> 00:26:09,110
+هنقسمها على اتناش في المية وهنا نحط ستة على اتناش
+
+303
+00:26:09,110 --> 00:26:15,370
+بطلع عن كل جهة طيب
+
+304
+00:26:15,370 --> 00:26:23,690
+طيب هلأ إيش هنسوي واحد زائدطيب احنا على الجدول
+
+305
+00:26:23,690 --> 00:26:28,330
+احنا حلو واحد زائد او five eight هذي احنا نكسبها
+
+306
+00:26:28,330 --> 00:26:36,590
+على اتماشي وهذه ستة على اتماشي بس هذا الجواب و
+
+307
+00:26:36,590 --> 00:26:40,150
+الباقي بتشتغلوا نفس الفكرة بس بدل ما احنا اتماشي
+
+308
+00:26:40,150 --> 00:26:47,750
+نشوف هل هي أسبوع هل هي سنة هل هي ..
+
+309
+00:26:47,750 --> 00:26:51,310
+حاولوا تعملوها في البيت و تجيبوا ليها اللقاء
+
+310
+00:26:51,310 --> 00:26:55,520
+الجاهدال effective annual الجواب ال effective
+
+311
+00:26:55,520 --> 00:27:07,720
+annual okay اي
+
+312
+00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:11,180
+واحد
+
+313
+00:27:11,180 --> 00:27:18,320
+اي واحد اه
+
+314
+00:27:21,830 --> 00:27:26,790
+واحد point تأكد من هذا الحزب طيب خلّيها عندك هنا
+
+315
+00:27:26,790 --> 00:27:30,430
+خلّيها عندكم هذه عملوها واجب homework و جيبوليها
+
+316
+00:27:30,430 --> 00:27:36,010
+يوم السبت فمعكم عندكم بال .. احسبوا .. احسبوا بدي
+
+317
+00:27:36,010 --> 00:27:40,710
+انا تطلعولي ال .. اعتبروا هذا العمود مش موجود و
+
+318
+00:27:40,710 --> 00:27:46,670
+جيبوليها بس هذا المطلوب منكم يعني
+
+319
+00:27:46,670 --> 00:27:51,330
+مطلوب منكوا شغلتان بدي ال .. بدي هذا العمود له هذا
+
+320
+00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:57,240
+جيبوليا و بدى تجيبولى هذا العمود بس الحل المحلول
+
+321
+00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:02,780
+موجود عندكم لكن انتوا حسبوليا على الحاسبة لأنه انا
+
+322
+00:28:02,780 --> 00:28:06,500
+شايف اغلب البنات ماعهاش على حاسبة فاللي هيستفيد بس
+
+323
+00:28:06,500 --> 00:28:10,920
+مجموعة اربع خمس بنات اللي هيستفيدهم فاروحوا البيت
+
+324
+00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:17,620
+و اعملولى calculations ل العمودين هدون تمام؟ شوفوا
+
+325
+00:28:17,620 --> 00:28:24,980
+كيف تم الحس بتاعتهمعرفنا أيش واجبكم يعني و
+
+326
+00:28:24,980 --> 00:28:29,620
+بتجيبولييا اللقاء الجاي عشان نحلكم اليها طيب okay
+
+327
+00:28:29,620 --> 00:28:30,240
+اعطيك العافية
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cfd7e65d41fcadf1b16f20bed0329ef11c513a7f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1395 @@
+1
+00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:26,620
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا بنحكي في chapter five و
+
+2
+00:00:26,620 --> 00:00:31,700
+بنحكي عن ال risk و ال interest rate of return in
+
+3
+00:00:31,700 --> 00:00:35,320
+the previous meeting we talked about factors
+
+4
+00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:40,000
+influencing on the interest rate يعني المحاضرة الفاترة
+
+5
+00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,600
+حكينا عن العوامل اللي بتأثر على ال interest rate
+
+6
+00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:47,760
+يعني مين بيقدر يقولي إيش هي العوامل اللي كنا نحكي 
+
+7
+00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:55,090
+فيها supply and demand, government, expected rate of
+
+8
+00:00:55,090 --> 00:01:01,650
+inflation. طيب other factors, في factors أخرى, taxes
+
+9
+00:01:01,650 --> 00:01:08,090
+ايش كمان؟ maturity, okay, that's fine. So in the
+
+10
+00:01:08,090 --> 00:01:10,730
+previous meeting we focused on the impact of
+
+11
+00:01:10,730 --> 00:01:15,250
+inflation. حكينا عن أثر ال inflation مظبوط وحكينا R
+
+12
+00:01:16,750 --> 00:01:23,090
+Big R which is the nominal, is equal small R which
+
+13
+00:01:23,090 --> 00:01:28,410
+is the real plus expected I. Expected I is the
+
+14
+00:01:28,410 --> 00:01:31,770
+expected inflation. Okay, so we don't have a problem
+
+15
+00:01:31,770 --> 00:01:36,670
+on this. If we want to estimate R, small R, إذا احنا
+
+16
+00:01:36,670 --> 00:01:42,570
+بدنا نعرف R, so R is equal Big R minus expected I.
+
+17
+00:01:42,570 --> 00:01:51,550
+So we can tell that R, the effective rate of return
+
+18
+00:01:51,550 --> 00:01:54,910
+or the effective interest rate has a negative
+
+19
+00:01:54,910 --> 00:01:58,290
+function with the expected inflation. يعني بيكون
+
+20
+00:01:58,290 --> 00:02:03,970
+علاقة الفائدة الحقيقية مع التضخم هي علاقة عكسية زي
+
+21
+00:02:03,970 --> 00:02:10,210
+ما احنا شايفين. If this, if I increase, if I increase
+
+22
+00:02:10,210 --> 00:02:19,250
+R decrease. Okay, ضق ضق, forget this. يعني ما .. so if
+
+23
+00:02:19,250 --> 00:02:23,350
+if expected inflation increase, the R will decrease.
+
+24
+00:02:23,350 --> 00:02:25,970
+So in this case, the investor, they are not keep
+
+25
+00:02:25,970 --> 00:02:29,050
+silent. المستثمرين ما بيكتفوش اليهم, they are not
+
+26
+00:02:29,050 --> 00:02:33,430
+keep silent. So when I increase, if you look at I
+
+27
+00:02:33,430 --> 00:02:39,230
+here, when I increase, the investors asking for
+
+28
+00:02:39,230 --> 00:02:42,610
+increase the nominal rate of return. If you look at
+
+29
+00:02:42,610 --> 00:02:47,280
+the relationship between Big R and the expected
+
+30
+00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:53,420
+inflation. So when I increase the nominal rate of
+
+31
+00:02:53,420 --> 00:02:56,400
+return, R will increase. So don't get confused on this.
+
+32
+00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:01,260
+ماترتبكوش يعني, just look at the equations. طلعوا
+
+33
+00:03:01,260 --> 00:03:04,220
+على ال equations. مظبوط. If we, if this increase
+
+34
+00:03:04,220 --> 00:03:07,880
+because this is a positive sign, so this is increase.
+
+35
+00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:12,240
+But if this increase, because this is a negative sign,
+
+36
+00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:17,500
+so this is decrease. That's it. يعني نرجع دائما لل
+
+37
+00:03:17,500 --> 00:03:21,620
+formulas. If you get confused in your exam and I
+
+38
+00:03:21,620 --> 00:03:25,720
+ask you to correct the answer, you just go back to
+
+39
+00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:29,480
+the equation and just tell yourself if this
+
+40
+00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:31,540
+increase, because this is a positive sign, this
+
+41
+00:03:31,540 --> 00:03:34,460
+increase. If this increase because this is 
+
+42
+00:03:34,460 --> 00:03:39,740
+a negative sign, so this is decrease. Okay, so the ..
+
+43
+00:03:39,740 --> 00:03:44,040
+this is what we said in the previous meeting. Today
+
+44
+00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:50,120
+we will include the taxation. هندخل ال taxation. Okay,
+
+45
+00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:55,660
+يعني نشوف what is the impact of taxation on the
+
+46
+00:03:55,660 --> 00:03:58,940
+real interest rates. هنشوف أثر الضريبة على ال real
+
+47
+00:03:58,940 --> 00:04:02,840
+interest rates. Okay, any question before talking
+
+48
+00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:10,560
+about this? Okay, no question. So
+
+49
+00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,660
+taxes, we
+
+50
+00:04:14,660 --> 00:04:19,960
+say it's any income is subject to a particular tax.
+
+51
+00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:24,560
+So investors paying tax on dividends, they are
+
+52
+00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:27,540
+paying tax on their income, they are paying tax on
+
+53
+00:04:27,540 --> 00:04:30,920
+their capital gains. I explained this before. يعني
+
+54
+00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:35,320
+ال investors هم لازم يدفعوا ضريبة لأن الحكومة
+
+55
+00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:39,240
+تتمول مشاريعها. بعد ساعة، ضريبة على الدخل، ضريبة على
+
+56
+00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:43,420
+توزيعات الأرباح، ضريبة على الأرباح الرأسمالية بتاعة
+
+57
+00:04:43,420 --> 00:04:47,410
+الشركة. So tax liabilities are based on nominal
+
+58
+00:04:47,410 --> 00:04:51,970
+income. ال tax لما احنا بنحسبها بنحسبها على ال
+
+59
+00:04:51,970 --> 00:04:57,650
+nominal, على العقد الإسمي. Okay, before deducting any
+
+60
+00:04:57,650 --> 00:05:02,470
+expenses. جاب لما احنا particular in the interest
+
+61
+00:05:02,470 --> 00:05:05,470
+rate. تحديدا في ال interest rate. يعني احنا لما
+
+62
+00:05:05,470 --> 00:05:09,550
+بناخد tax, we calculate tax based on this, not based
+
+63
+00:05:09,550 --> 00:05:15,540
+on this. Okay, just be careful. So taxes are
+
+64
+00:05:15,540 --> 00:05:19,320
+calculated based on the nominal rate of income.
+
+65
+00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:24,000
+بتحسب على nominal rate of income. So if we want to
+
+66
+00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:31,220
+know the after-tax rate, you just times R by 1 minus T.
+
+67
+00:05:31,220 --> 00:05:41,360
+So R after tax, just after tax, it means R * (1 minus T).
+
+68
+00:05:42,530 --> 00:05:44,190
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+69
+00:05:44,190 --> 00:05:47,830
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+70
+00:05:47,830 --> 00:05:52,650
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+71
+00:05:52,650 --> 00:05:54,110
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+72
+00:05:54,110 --> 00:06:09,330
+one minus one
+
+73
+00:06:09,330 --> 00:06:10,970
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+74
+00:06:10,970 --> 00:06:11,150
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+75
+00:06:11,150 --> 00:06:11,170
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+76
+00:06:11,170 --> 00:06:11,250
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+77
+00:06:11,250 --> 00:06:23,530
+minus وهو 0.07 أو 7%. لذلك، بعد الضريبة الواقعي هو 7
+
+78
+00:06:23,530 --> 00:06:28,420
+% لأننا قمنا بتدخل الضريبة. Now in this equation, we
+
+79
+00:06:28,420 --> 00:06:32,820
+only consider the taxation, so we should or we have
+
+80
+00:06:32,820 --> 00:06:36,120
+to put all of them together, taxation and inflation
+
+81
+00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:41,060
+لأن احنا بال previous meeting، المحاضرة
+
+82
+00:06:41,060 --> 00:06:44,240
+الفايترة، حكينا بس عن ال inflation و دلوقت حكينا عن
+
+83
+00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:47,920
+ال taxation فحنحطهم التانية مع بعض، ال inflation مع
+
+84
+00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:52,400
+ال taxation. Okay, so we will see هنشوف
+
+85
+00:06:57,550 --> 00:07:00,650
+الضريبة. لماذا تحصل على النمو؟ لماذا تحصل على
+
+86
+00:07:00,650 --> 00:07:07,410
+النمو؟ لأن النمو 
+
+87
+00:07:07,410 --> 00:07:13,040
+يحتوي على الكثير من الفactors. Okay, so in order to
+
+88
+00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:18,240
+calculate the real, we have to deduct the taxation.
+
+89
+00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:22,000
+فاكره احنا خلينا هذا. This is a good question. بارح
+
+90
+00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:27,780
+حكينا إن R is
+
+91
+00:07:27,780 --> 00:07:33,760
+a function of R plus inflation premium plus
+
+92
+00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,780
+liquidity premium plus maturity premium plus
+
+93
+00:07:36,780 --> 00:07:40,320
+taxation premium. I explained this formula yesterday.
+
+94
+00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:47,140
+Fine. Okay, فال inflation premium is a function of 
+
+95
+00:07:47,140 --> 00:07:55,880
+this. It is not a function of this. يعني هذه يعني
+
+96
+00:07:55,880 --> 00:08:01,100
+معادلة بدلالة R مش معادلة بدلالة small r. يعني هذه
+
+97
+00:08:01,100 --> 00:08:07,310
+هي اللي ال dependent. هذه ال .. yes. هذا هو العامل
+
+98
+00:08:07,310 --> 00:08:11,310
+الرئيسي. هذه هي ال dependence. فبتعتمد على العوامل
+
+99
+00:08:11,310 --> 00:08:15,390
+هذه. ال inflation فبتتغير ال R. تغير ال R إذا تغيرت
+
+100
+00:08:15,390 --> 00:08:19,530
+هذول و هذه R is a part of the equations. هذول إذا
+
+101
+00:08:19,530 --> 00:08:22,390
+أنتوا أخدتوا بال statistics أو بال equations أو
+
+102
+00:08:22,390 --> 00:08:25,130
+بال modeling إن هذول إيش بيسميهم ال factors
+
+103
+00:08:25,130 --> 00:08:30,310
+متغيرات مستقلة ولا متغيرات تابعة؟ مستقلة. إيش رأيكم؟
+
+104
+00:08:30,310 --> 00:08:34,230
+في ناس بيحكوا تابعة، في ناس مستقلة. متغيرات مستخلة
+
+105
+00:08:34,230 --> 00:08:38,710
+مستخلة بيسموها independent و هذا مستخل .. هذا إيش
+
+106
+00:08:38,710 --> 00:08:43,290
+dependent تابع. So all of these factors are
+
+107
+00:08:43,290 --> 00:08:49,410
+independent. So R depends on these factors. ال R ال
+
+108
+00:08:49,410 --> 00:08:53,370
+big R بتعتمد على ال factors هذي. For instance, if
+
+109
+00:08:53,370 --> 00:08:56,490
+inflation increase, look at here, if inflation
+
+110
+00:08:56,490 --> 00:09:02,500
+increase, R will increase. denominator. If taxation
+
+111
+00:09:02,500 --> 00:09:07,080
+increase, the R nominal will increase, but it has an
+
+112
+00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:12,160
+opposite function with small r. لكن عندهم علاقة
+
+113
+00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:14,760
+عكسية مع ال small r. لأن لو أخدنا ال R على جانب
+
+114
+00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:18,740
+هتاخدوا هدول بال minus أسيبا لأن خدوا ال R على
+
+115
+00:09:18,740 --> 00:09:23,180
+جانب هيك فتساوي R بتساوي Big R minus هدول كلهم.
+
+116
+00:09:23,180 --> 00:09:27,090
+فهتصير negative function. I don't know your level in
+
+117
+00:09:27,090 --> 00:09:31,390
+.. on mathematics or statistics, but this is the ..
+
+118
+00:09:31,390 --> 00:09:35,270
+you answer .. answer the question. يعني أنا ما اعرفش
+
+119
+00:09:35,270 --> 00:09:39,190
+أنا مستواكم بال mathematics لكن هذا هو ازاي انتوا
+
+120
+00:09:39,190 --> 00:09:44,510
+بتعرفوا لما نروح نودل ال R فيك نغير إشارتهم يصير
+
+121
+00:09:44,510 --> 00:09:48,490
+هذا الإجراء. So and it changes in I و ال influence
+
+122
+00:09:48,490 --> 00:09:53,140
+on .. on R. Any changes in taxation will influence
+
+123
+00:09:53,140 --> 00:09:56,840
+on r. طب احنا زي ما حكينا لكم، we will mix them
+
+124
+00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:00,200
+together. هنحطهم في بعض. بارح حكينا مع الinflation
+
+125
+00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,440
+اليوم حكينا مع ال taxation. هنحطهم في معادلة مع بعض. 
+
+126
+00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:08,040
+just put in your mind these equations خلوكم حافظينها
+
+127
+00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:15,200
+the equations اللي عندكم given a tax rate T زي ما 
+
+128
+00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:16,040
+احنا حطينا T
+
+129
+00:10:37,210 --> 00:10:41,830
+عارفين الكلام هذا لما احنا كنا نحكي R is equal to
+
+130
+00:10:41,830 --> 00:10:47,420
+R minus I or expected I  ذكرنا هذا البارحة هنا R
+
+131
+00:10:47,420 --> 00:10:51,280
+is equal to R minus I وقبل شوية حكينا فيها طيب
+
+132
+00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:55,000
+لما احنا بنحكي عن after taxation شوفوا كيف احنا
+
+133
+00:10:55,000 --> 00:11:01,700
+هنشكل المعادلة ببساطة هذه هتساوي R (1-T)
+
+134
+00:11:01,700 --> 00:11:05,540
+okay
+
+135
+00:11:05,540 --> 00:11:15,310
+R (1-T) minus I لأننا نعتبر أن الـR هذى is
+
+136
+00:11:15,310 --> 00:11:22,010
+after tax مش احنا بناخد الضريبة وهناخد ال I فاحنا
+
+137
+00:11:22,010 --> 00:11:26,770
+دخلنا الضريبة ودخلنا ال I فاستبدلنا بهذه مكانها R
+
+138
+00:11:26,770 --> 00:11:33,270
+(1-T) لأنه after tax minus I بعدين
+
+139
+00:11:33,270 --> 00:11:38,550
+كملنا آخر شيء المهم نصل لهذه ال formula اللي هو R
+
+140
+00:11:38,550 --> 00:11:41,270
+(1-T)
+
+141
+00:11:43,300 --> 00:11:48,480
+بس هذا ضرب يعني شيء سوينا احنا R plus I ضربناها في
+
+142
+00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:54,330
+(1-T) minus I يعني هذه هيها okay وروحنا
+
+143
+00:11:54,330 --> 00:12:00,050
+عوضنا R زائد I في (1-T) بالآخر ما بلزمكوش 
+
+144
+00:12:00,050 --> 00:12:02,690
+تحفظوا هذا طبعا بس بالآخر كنتوا تعرفوا لما احنا
+
+145
+00:12:02,690 --> 00:12:07,490
+نحط ال I مع ال T المعادلة هتكون R (1-T) minus
+
+146
+00:12:07,490 --> 00:12:12,270
+IT that's it يعني بس احفظولي ال formula I'm not
+
+147
+00:12:12,270 --> 00:12:15,910
+asking you how to derive the formula مش هنسألكم كيف
+
+148
+00:12:15,910 --> 00:12:19,610
+تعملوا deriving لل formula يعني مش هسألكم كيف
+
+149
+00:12:19,610 --> 00:12:27,770
+تشتقوا المعادلة بالآخر أنا I'm asking you R(1-T)-IT
+
+150
+00:12:27,770 --> 00:12:34,570
+ناخد مثال شوف كده اكتب
+
+151
+00:12:34,570 --> 00:12:39,490
+المعادلة هذه after
+
+152
+00:12:39,490 --> 00:12:43,350
+tax tax
+
+153
+00:12:43,350 --> 00:12:50,550
+rate لنحسب ال after tax rate if
+
+154
+00:12:50,550 --> 00:13:05,010
+I عارفين I؟ Inflation if I 6% if T is 30% إذا كانت
+
+155
+00:13:05,010 --> 00:13:11,430
+T if small r is
+
+156
+00:13:11,430 --> 00:13:16,070
+15% what is the after tax
+
+157
+00:13:18,740 --> 00:13:27,980
+ال I Inflation is 6% , T is 30% , R is 15% ف what
+
+158
+00:13:27,980 --> 00:13:32,500
+is the after tax؟ أحسبوها كلكم أحسبوها طبقوا ال
+
+159
+00:13:32,500 --> 00:13:39,420
+formula إلى آخر واحدة طبقوا هذه بناد سهلة يعني أنا
+
+160
+00:13:39,420 --> 00:13:44,020
+ماعطيكوا I و ماعطيكوا T و ماعطيكوا R بدنا ال after
+
+161
+00:13:44,020 --> 00:13:48,400
+tax بس just apply thisالكل طلع عنده عشرة ونص زي
+
+162
+00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,980
+ما حكت إذا
+
+163
+00:13:51,980 --> 00:13:56,520
+مش الكل مع الكلام فهي غلط في الحل اتأكدوا أن
+
+164
+00:13:56,520 --> 00:14:01,120
+شغلكوا صح طيب
+
+165
+00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:07,780
+كيف عملتوا هتشوفوا
+
+166
+00:14:07,780 --> 00:14:16,540
+المفروض يكون عندنا 15% × (1 - 0.30)
+
+167
+00:14:17,540 --> 00:14:25,000
+Okay خلصوها هاد لحالها، بعدين ناقص ..
+
+168
+00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,060
+كل
+
+169
+00:14:28,060 --> 00:14:37,280
+طلعهم 8.7؟ خلاص، مادام الكل بيطلع إجابة صحيحة،
+
+170
+00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:42,670
+اللي ما طلعتش معها تحلها كام مرة تتأكد من .. اتفضل
+
+171
+00:14:42,670 --> 00:14:56,050
+اتفضل
+
+172
+00:14:56,050 --> 00:15:00,490
+اتفضل
+
+173
+00:15:00,490 --> 00:15:05,290
+اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل
+
+174
+00:15:05,290 --> 00:15:05,350
+اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل
+
+175
+00:15:12,650 --> 00:15:18,410
+طيب إيش هنستفيد من المعادلة هذه after
+
+176
+00:15:18,410 --> 00:15:26,030
+tax ال after tax real rate of return falls as the
+
+177
+00:15:26,030 --> 00:15:33,050
+inflation rate rises يعني في علاقة عكسية بين ال
+
+178
+00:15:33,050 --> 00:15:36,030
+real rate of return after tax وبين ال inflation
+
+179
+00:15:36,030 --> 00:15:40,890
+يعني كل ما ال inflation بيزيد when the inflation
+
+180
+00:15:40,890 --> 00:15:46,010
+increases اللي هو real after tax decreases تمام؟ هاي
+
+181
+00:15:46,010 --> 00:15:50,410
+the after tax real rate of return falls falls as
+
+182
+00:15:50,410 --> 00:15:54,710
+.. as يعني بسبب as the inflation rate rises يعني
+
+183
+00:15:54,710 --> 00:15:59,250
+كل ما ال inflation rate .. rate بيزيد شو بيصير؟ ال
+
+184
+00:15:59,250 --> 00:16:02,590
+real rate after tax شو بيصير فيه؟ بيزيد ولا بينقص؟
+
+185
+00:16:02,590 --> 00:16:09,050
+بتنقص بتنقص decrease بنخفض وانتوا دائماً اتذكروا هذه
+
+186
+00:16:09,050 --> 00:16:09,390
+العلاقة
+
+187
+00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:22,700
+طبعا طيب احنا عشان نركز we talk about the impact
+
+188
+00:16:22,700 --> 00:16:26,520
+of inflation we talk about the impact of taxation
+
+189
+00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:30,320
+حكينا عن ال inflation وعن ال taxation نحكي عن ال
+
+190
+00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:35,100
+holding period الفترة الزمنية لأنه لو احنا نرجع
+
+191
+00:16:35,100 --> 00:16:39,360
+لأول يوم حكينا فيه لو روحنا احنا أخدنا مرابحة مثلا
+
+192
+00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,600
+من .. من بنك الإسلامي وحكينا عليهم بدنا لمدة سنة
+
+193
+00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:48,340
+مرابحة تبقى هان هتكون المرابحة seven percent for
+
+194
+00:16:48,340 --> 00:16:51,180
+one year طب لو قلنا عليهم بدناهاش احنا one year
+
+195
+00:16:51,180 --> 00:16:56,640
+بدناها two years هتكون أقل ولا أكثر؟ يعني مثلا ممكن
+
+196
+00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:02,130
+تكون nine percent طب إذا كانت three years ممكن أكثر
+
+197
+00:17:02,130 --> 00:17:06,530
+increase يعني مثلا نقول 12% طيب إذا كانت semi
+
+198
+00:17:06,530 --> 00:17:10,730
+-annual نص سنة نص سنة six months ممكن يكون five
+
+199
+00:17:10,730 --> 00:17:14,770
+percent what we observe in this؟ إيش احنا بنلاحظ؟
+
+200
+00:17:14,770 --> 00:17:18,510
+كل ما زادت الفترة بيزيد ال holding period كل ما
+
+201
+00:17:18,510 --> 00:17:21,390
+زادت الفترة بيزيد ال holding period كل ما كانت R
+
+202
+00:17:21,390 --> 00:17:27,910
+increase كل ما كانت R تزيد تمام؟ عشان برضه
+
+203
+00:17:27,910 --> 00:17:31,590
+نتأكد كام مرة إذا في عندي أنا ال inflation بتأثر
+
+204
+00:17:31,590 --> 00:17:36,210
+بتخفض ال R عندي ال taxation بتخفض ال R عند ال
+
+205
+00:17:36,210 --> 00:17:44,690
+holding period بتزيد ال R okay نشوف
+
+206
+00:17:44,690 --> 00:17:50,430
+مثال طب
+
+207
+00:17:50,430 --> 00:17:57,050
+فكركم ليش .. ليش why R increases when the holding
+
+208
+00:17:57,050 --> 00:18:01,270
+period increases؟ ليش ال R بتزيد لما ال holding
+
+209
+00:18:01,270 --> 00:18:07,410
+period بتزيد؟ يعني تطلعوا على ال chart هنا تطلعوا
+
+210
+00:18:07,410 --> 00:18:13,250
+على ال .. بدي أنا أسألكوا سؤال يعني، هذا half year
+
+211
+00:18:13,250 --> 00:18:17,570
+مظبوط؟ نص سنة كم كان ال rates؟
+
+212
+00:18:20,350 --> 00:18:25,450
+طب لما صارنا سنة one year كام صار ال rate؟ 4.69
+
+213
+00:18:25,450 --> 00:18:33,150
+زاد ولا زاد؟ زاد زاد لو صار 25 years 3.29 طب why?
+
+214
+00:18:34,510 --> 00:18:38,490
+why when we increase the holding periods the
+
+215
+00:18:38,490 --> 00:18:44,770
+interest rate increases? why؟ ليش؟ ممكن تفترضوا تفترضوا
+
+216
+00:18:44,770 --> 00:18:49,790
+أكثر yes because of risk because of risk يعني كل ما
+
+217
+00:18:49,790 --> 00:18:54,630
+احنا زادت ال .. ال holding period they .. the risk
+
+218
+00:18:54,630 --> 00:18:59,270
+will increase مظبوط؟ because increases the
+
+219
+00:18:59,270 --> 00:19:03,850
+uncertainty بيزيد ال uncertainty عدم التأكد
+
+220
+00:19:03,850 --> 00:19:07,370
+tomorrow we .. we may know what is going tomorrow
+
+221
+00:19:07,370 --> 00:19:13,670
+the day after tomorrow we may or we may not the
+
+222
+00:19:13,670 --> 00:19:16,940
+same day in the next year we don't know Okay the
+
+223
+00:19:16,940 --> 00:19:21,480
+same day with after ten years we don't know إذا
+
+224
+00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,020
+بكرا ممكن نعرف بعد بكرا برضه ممكن لكن لأسبوع الجاي
+
+225
+00:19:25,020 --> 00:19:29,780
+ما .. لكن لأسبوع من السنة الجاية لأسبوع زي هذا من
+
+226
+00:19:29,780 --> 00:19:32,320
+السنة الجاية we don't know after ten years you
+
+227
+00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,720
+don't know So the thing is هي when the holding
+
+228
+00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:40,940
+period increases the risk increases and it increases
+
+229
+00:19:40,940 --> 00:19:45,780
+the uncertainty تزيد ال air عدم التأكد uncertainty
+
+230
+00:19:45,780 --> 00:19:54,440
+خليني أرجع نشوف zero carbon bond I explained what
+
+231
+00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:59,480
+it means zero carbon bond what it means أخدناها في
+
+232
+00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:07,140
+chapter one في فائدة هذا؟ لأ لأ، zero فكيف من بيع؟
+
+233
+00:20:07,140 --> 00:20:10,440
+خاصة، discount، هذا جبناه لكم يا عم ما أعرفش أقولكم
+
+234
+00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:15,800
+إنّه لا، discount اه، اه، so I know this, I repeat
+
+235
+00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,020
+it many times because in the .. in the final exam
+
+236
+00:20:19,020 --> 00:20:22,140
+you face the same problem هتواجه نفس المشكلة،
+
+237
+00:20:22,140 --> 00:20:28,190
+هتطلع التلاتة exclude the treasury bonds because
+
+238
+00:20:28,190 --> 00:20:31,130
+the treasury bonds are not sold by discount
+
+239
+00:20:31,130 --> 00:20:36,730
+مافيش فيها discount as well as the corporate bonds
+
+240
+00:20:36,730 --> 00:20:44,390
+I think A and C okay zero carbon bonds so there is
+
+241
+00:20:44,390 --> 00:20:47,410
+no interest here is discount here is the discount
+
+242
+00:20:47,410 --> 00:20:50,870
+rate the par value no par value is one hundred
+
+243
+00:20:50,870 --> 00:20:58,740
+dollars T maturity فترة الاستحقاق be the price and
+
+244
+00:20:58,740 --> 00:21:02,780
+RF is the risk-free rate total risk-free return يعني
+
+245
+00:21:02,780 --> 00:21:08,180
+هذا هو ال discount تبقى هيكون فنشوف ال risk-free
+
+246
+00:21:08,180 --> 00:21:16,580
+ال R is equal to one hundred the par value ال
+
+247
+00:21:16,580 --> 00:21:19,020
+هو ال one hundred هشوف ال par value
+
+248
+00:21:23,330 --> 00:21:32,390
+divided by the price at maturity okay على ال
+
+249
+00:21:32,390 --> 00:21:35,550
+price at the maturity date يعني ال price اليوم
+
+250
+00:21:35,550 --> 00:21:38,430
+بكرا بعده فهذا ال price بيتغير according to the
+
+251
+00:21:38,430 --> 00:21:42,090
+maturity حسب ال maturity هذا عشان احنا نحسب to 
+252
+00:21:42,090 --> 00:21:46,990
+calculate the RF إذا
+253
+00:21:46,990 --> 00:21:50,150
+بدنا نحسب ال risk free ال risk free بتساوي ال bar
+254
+00:21:50,150 --> 00:21:58,050
+value ال bar value على اللي هو ال discount فكل ما
+255
+00:21:58,050 --> 00:22:04,530
+احنا زادت الفترة الزمنية هذا بزيد ف ال return بزيد
+256
+00:22:04,530 --> 00:22:10,410
+يعني خليني انا اشوف لو كان احنا عندنا 100 دولار و
+257
+00:22:10,410 --> 00:22:18,350
+ال discount كان 9 9% ناقص واحد جربوها عنكم بالأقل
+258
+00:22:18,350 --> 00:22:28,760
+الحسبة يعني خانح كان سهل كان تسعة مية
+259
+00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:36,600
+على تسعة عشرة
+260
+00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:42,700
+okay بعد ما خفضنا الواحد okay بتكون هنا ال risk
+261
+00:22:42,700 --> 00:22:46,200
+free كانت 11.1
+262
+00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:55,160
+أيش روحنا احنا سونا بس روحنا غيرنا ال .. غيرنا ال
+263
+00:22:55,160 --> 00:23:00,120
+.. ال hoarding period بدل ما half year و one year
+264
+00:23:00,120 --> 00:23:03,480
+و ال .. okay طبخنا المعادلة هذه فاكرين هذه
+265
+00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:08,920
+المعادلة هذه هي هذه المعادلة طلعوا
+266
+00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:14,760
+على المعادلة مية بيتي minus one هي مية المية ال
+267
+00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:19,710
+bar value مابتتغيرش خدوا دعاكمايش اللي اتغير؟ اللي
+268
+00:23:19,710 --> 00:23:24,310
+اتغير ال price السعر تلاحظوا انتوا السعر شو بيصير
+269
+00:23:24,310 --> 00:23:29,750
+فيه لما الفترة الزمنية بيزيد السعر
+270
+00:23:29,750 --> 00:23:32,610
+بيخلق طب ايش .. ايش اللي بيزيد طيب؟ ال discount
+271
+00:23:32,610 --> 00:23:37,770
+بيزيد الخاصن بيزيد يعني احنا اذا حملنا السند هذا
+272
+00:23:37,770 --> 00:23:43,850
+لسنة .. لنص سنة بيكون عندى سبعة و تسعين دولار جداش
+273
+00:23:43,850 --> 00:23:48,290
+حصلت على خاصن اللي هو اتنين دولار و اشيطب إذا
+274
+00:23:48,290 --> 00:23:52,150
+حللتوا لسنة بصير حوالي أخدت أربعة دولار و نص
+275
+00:23:52,150 --> 00:23:56,170
+discount مظبوط طلعوا على ال 95 ال bar value ثابتة
+276
+00:23:56,170 --> 00:23:59,610
+مابتتغيرش و الواحد .. إيش اللي قاعد بتغير انتوا ال
+277
+00:23:59,610 --> 00:24:02,730
+price طلعوا طلعوا picture this picture يعني صوروا
+278
+00:24:02,730 --> 00:24:06,610
+الأمر إيش بس اللي بتغير ال price طب ال price إيش
+279
+00:24:06,610 --> 00:24:08,930
+بتغير لإن ال holding period زاد لإن ال holding
+280
+00:24:08,930 --> 00:24:19,800
+period بتزيد طيب خليني أسهلككم أكتر لو ..احنا قلنا
+281
+00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:25,060
+لك التالي انه بدي انا اخد منكوا مية دولار بدي اخد
+282
+00:24:25,060 --> 00:24:31,240
+منكوا كام؟ مية دولار okay هاي مية دولار قلتلكوا
+283
+00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,920
+بدي استدكوا إياها بكرا فقول okay ماشي مية دولار
+284
+00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,320
+سوى مية دولار طب لو قلتلكوا انا بدي أسدكوا إياها
+285
+00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,660
+بعد ست شهور ال 100 دولار هل ال 100 دولار is equal
+286
+00:24:40,660 --> 00:24:43,760
+one hundred dollar after six months طب أقل ولا
+287
+00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,600
+أكتر؟ أقل أكتر أقل طيب اللي انا اختاره انه كانت
+288
+00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,660
+قيمتها سبعة و تسعين دولار كده سعر فارج؟ discount
+289
+00:24:51,660 --> 00:24:55,200
+تلاتة دولار خلاص تحطوا هيك discount three dollar
+290
+00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:59,420
+طب قلتلكوا لأ انا بدي اياهم أسدكوا إياهم بعد سنة
+291
+00:24:59,420 --> 00:25:05,240
+مش بعد ست شهور ال 100 دولار هدول هل أقل من سبعة و
+292
+00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,730
+تسعين ولا أكتر؟ ممكن 94 و بالتالي ال discount كده
+293
+00:25:08,730 --> 00:25:13,390
+ايش صار؟ 6 فشوفوا ال discount بيزيد طب قلتلكوا لأ
+294
+00:25:13,390 --> 00:25:16,170
+هذه ال 100 دولار انا هزيد .. هسدكوا إياها بعد تالت
+295
+00:25:16,170 --> 00:25:22,290
+سنين هزيد ال discount أكتر فممكن ال 100 دولار ممكن
+296
+00:25:22,290 --> 00:25:26,730
+85 فصار ال discount 15 دولار طب ماشي قلتلكوا انا
+297
+00:25:26,730 --> 00:25:29,830
+هذه ال 100 دولار هزيد .. هسدكوا إياها بعد عشر سنين
+298
+00:25:29,830 --> 00:25:36,120
+100 دولار بعد عشر سنين ممكن تسوى عشرة دولار مظبوط
+299
+00:25:36,120 --> 00:25:40,580
+تفقد من قيمتها فاكرين احنا لما حكينا عن مهر الحجات
+300
+00:25:40,580 --> 00:25:46,260
+زمان نفس الفكرة 100$ ساندتها 10$ ففقرة من قيمتها
+301
+00:25:46,260 --> 00:25:49,660
+ال discount 90$ فكل ما بيزيد ال holding period
+302
+00:25:49,660 --> 00:25:54,620
+بتزيد كل ما بيزيد ال holding period كل ما بيزيد ال
+303
+00:25:54,620 --> 00:26:00,600
+discount ماشي
+304
+00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:06,410
+هلا بدي انا اعطيكي 100$ Okay أنا أخد منك مية دولار،
+305
+00:26:06,410 --> 00:26:10,630
+بنفع أنا بدأ أخد منك مية دولار، يعني أنا أداية منك
+306
+00:26:10,630 --> 00:26:16,330
+مية دولار، هل جيت هذه المية دولار قيمتها بعد سنة
+307
+00:26:16,330 --> 00:26:20,070
+تساوي مية دولار؟
+308
+00:26:20,070 --> 00:26:24,290
+قيمة المية دولار، طيب نسهلها شوية أكتر، المية
+309
+00:26:24,290 --> 00:26:30,480
+دولار هذه بتشتري فيها مثلا كسين سكر اليوم طب بعد
+310
+00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,720
+خمس سنين بتشتري فيهم كيسان سُكّار؟ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+311
+00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,880
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+312
+00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:36,000
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+313
+00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:36,720
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+314
+00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:37,680
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+315
+00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,460
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+316
+00:26:39,460 --> 00:26:47,000
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ ل
+317
+00:26:59,340 --> 00:27:06,340
+عشان نحسب ال R عشان نحسب ال R ال bar value divided
+318
+00:27:06,340 --> 00:27:12,800
+by the price of the treasury bonds minus 1 فال
+319
+00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:17,300
+price divided by the treasury bonds على نقص 1 فبعد
+320
+00:27:17,300 --> 00:27:23,280
+الحسبة نجدنا احنا 2.7 percent after one year 4.69
+321
+00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,400
+after 25 years three hundred twenty nine percent
+322
+00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:34,100
+يعني بعد خمسة و عشرين سنة المية دولار الواحدة
+323
+00:27:34,100 --> 00:27:39,320
+بتصير تلت مية دولار بتضاعف بتصير tripled بتصير تلت
+324
+00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:43,560
+مرات مضاعفتها after twenty five years fixing the
+325
+00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,780
+inflation تخدوا باكم احنا we .. we .. we .. we fix
+326
+00:27:47,780 --> 00:27:49,780
+the inflation تخدوا باكم لو روحنا دخلنا ال
+327
+00:27:49,780 --> 00:27:54,300
+inflation كمان هذه بس بوجود ال holding period دخلنا
+328
+00:27:54,300 --> 00:27:57,340
+بس ال holding period لكن تصور لو احنا دخلنا ال
+329
+00:27:57,340 --> 00:27:59,300
+holding period دخلنا ال inflation دخلنا ال
+330
+00:27:59,300 --> 00:28:02,920
+taxation تلاتة مع بعض what is the hell of this
+331
+00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,480
+equation؟
+332
+00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,740
+هو بتعني it's complicated تمام؟ so you understand
+333
+00:28:09,740 --> 00:28:15,260
+this يعني احنا هنجيبلكم مثلا في ال exam هنجيبلكم
+334
+00:28:15,260 --> 00:28:19,340
+معلومات ل price هعطيكم بار value and ask you about
+335
+00:28:19,340 --> 00:28:26,130
+the calculate R في حد مش عارف يحسب R؟ هذه اللي مش
+336
+00:28:26,130 --> 00:28:31,210
+عارف يحكيلي اللي مش عارف يحسب آخر عمود طلع فيه
+337
+00:28:31,210 --> 00:28:37,490
+منيح هذا الرقم okay ما احنا اليوم احنا .. احنا we
+338
+00:28:37,490 --> 00:28:42,790
+are in the heaven احنا هلأ بالجنة يعني and we can
+339
+00:28:42,790 --> 00:28:47,210
+talk as much as we can but when we are in the exam
+340
+00:28:49,290 --> 00:28:54,870
+so what you can do try it now is much better than
+341
+00:28:54,870 --> 00:28:58,590
+trying in the exam لإنه إحنا نجربها هان أحسن ما
+342
+00:28:58,590 --> 00:29:07,350
+نجربها في الامتحان okay هاي هادي تطلع two point
+343
+00:29:07,350 --> 00:29:12,870
+seven percent يعني مية عملنا مية تقسيم سبعة وتسعين
+344
+00:29:12,870 --> 00:29:17,110
+ناقص ستة وتلاتين بس في حد بعرفش يعني الكلام هذا
+345
+00:29:17,750 --> 00:29:21,030
+بعدين تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+346
+00:29:21,030 --> 00:29:29,510
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+347
+00:29:29,510 --> 00:29:29,850
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+348
+00:29:29,850 --> 00:29:29,870
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+349
+00:29:29,870 --> 00:29:29,990
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+350
+00:29:29,990 --> 00:29:30,190
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+351
+00:29:30,190 --> 00:29:31,590
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+352
+00:29:31,590 --> 00:29:31,790
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+353
+00:29:31,790 --> 00:29:38,150
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع
+354
+00:29:38,150 --> 00:29:46,230
+هذا الجواب تطلع
+355
+00:29:46,230 --> 00:29:46,350
+هذا
+356
+00:29:50,660 --> 00:29:57,900
+احسبوها يا بنات عشان تتأكدوا شغله صح وين
+357
+00:29:57,900 --> 00:30:06,100
+القلعة الحاس بتاعتكنتوا؟ طلعت
+358
+00:30:06,100 --> 00:30:09,360
+مظبوط؟
+359
+00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:14,060
+مين
+360
+00:30:14,060 --> 00:30:20,950
+ما طلعتش عنده؟ بالظبط مين ما طلعتش عنده؟ يعني تطلع
+361
+00:30:20,950 --> 00:30:24,950
+عندك ال gate أحسن ما تطلعش في ال exam يعني يا
+362
+00:30:24,950 --> 00:30:31,310
+بنات أنا intentionally في ال multiple choice عند
+363
+00:30:31,310 --> 00:30:34,770
+ال .. يعني بقدر أعرف أن وين إمكانية تخطأ في القانة
+364
+00:30:34,770 --> 00:30:38,510
+الحاسبة، فلاحظوا يعني أنا كنت أمر في الامتحان،
+365
+00:30:38,510 --> 00:30:42,900
+ماعرفش مين سألنا بالبنات بدون إحراج فجدت ليه بيطلع
+366
+00:30:42,900 --> 00:30:46,480
+جوابين في ال .. okay yes في جوابين أكيد في جوابين
+367
+00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,800
+أقولك كمان في أربع أجوبة و الأربع أجوبة هيطلعوا
+368
+00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,620
+معاكي في الأقل الحاسبة لأنه أنا بعرف وين احنا
+369
+00:30:52,620 --> 00:30:56,420
+تغلطي و ده ليش احنا يعني حاطين multiple choice مش
+370
+00:30:56,420 --> 00:31:01,740
+معقول انا مثلا أحطلك خمسين مثلا أجي أقول مثلا x
+371
+00:31:01,740 --> 00:31:06,360
+divided by y minus one okay
+372
+00:31:08,030 --> 00:31:11,850
+احتمالات الخطأ ان انا هستعمل x-1 على y هذا خطأ
+373
+00:31:11,850 --> 00:31:19,390
+هتصير x على y okay بدون ما هي ايه اترحل one
+374
+00:31:19,390 --> 00:31:24,450
+وبالتالي كل ال possibilities انا هاخدها بالازبارة
+375
+00:31:24,450 --> 00:31:28,370
+حطولا كليها بال multiple choice بالظبط ايش ما 
+
+376
+00:31:28,370 --> 00:31:30,570
+تجاوبيها هتلاقيها موجودة بالـ multiple choice إيه
+
+377
+00:31:30,570 --> 00:31:36,250
+صار معاكي هيكل لأنه لو احنا في صف رابع ابتدائي 
+
+378
+00:31:36,250 --> 00:31:42,430
+قالوا لنا القسم أولى صح ولا لأ؟ فخلصي هذه يلا بعدين
+
+379
+00:31:42,430 --> 00:31:47,990
+خلصي هذه هو حسب ما أنت بتعرفي هذه المشكلة في حد 
+
+380
+00:31:47,990 --> 00:31:48,970
+عنده سؤال يا بنات؟ 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ce9ba936e3339115020123485629c04ad8cf7690
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1520 @@
+1
+00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:26,620
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا بنحكي ب chapter five و
+
+2
+00:00:26,620 --> 00:00:31,700
+بنحكي عن ال risk و ال interest rate of return in
+
+3
+00:00:31,700 --> 00:00:35,320
+the previous meeting we talked about factors
+
+4
+00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:40,000
+influence on the interest rate يعني المحاضر الفاتر
+
+5
+00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,600
+حكينا عن العوامل اللي بتأثر على ال interest rate
+
+6
+00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:47,760
+يعني مين بيقدر يقولي إيش هي العوامل اللي كنا نحكي
+
+7
+00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:55,090
+فيهاsupply and demand government expected rate of
+
+8
+00:00:55,090 --> 00:01:01,650
+inflation طيب other factors فى factors أخرى taxes
+
+9
+00:01:01,650 --> 00:01:08,090
+ايش كمان maturity okay that's fine so in the
+
+10
+00:01:08,090 --> 00:01:10,730
+previous meeting we focused on the impact of
+
+11
+00:01:10,730 --> 00:01:15,250
+inflation حكينا عن أثر ال inflation مظبوط وحكينا R
+
+12
+00:01:16,750 --> 00:01:23,090
+Big R which is the nominal is equal small R which
+
+13
+00:01:23,090 --> 00:01:28,410
+is the real plus expected I expected I is the
+
+14
+00:01:28,410 --> 00:01:31,770
+expected inflation okay so we don't have problem
+
+15
+00:01:31,770 --> 00:01:36,670
+on this if we want to estimate R small R اذا احنا
+
+16
+00:01:36,670 --> 00:01:42,570
+بدنا نعرف R so R is equal big R minus expected I
+
+17
+00:01:42,570 --> 00:01:51,550
+sowe can tell that R the effective rate of return
+
+18
+00:01:51,550 --> 00:01:54,910
+or the effective interest rate has a negative
+
+19
+00:01:54,910 --> 00:01:58,290
+function with the expected inflation يعني بيكون
+
+20
+00:01:58,290 --> 00:02:03,970
+علاقة الفائدة الحقيقية مع التضخم هي علاقة عكسية زي
+
+21
+00:02:03,970 --> 00:02:10,210
+ما احنا شايفين if this if I increase if I increase
+
+22
+00:02:10,210 --> 00:02:19,250
+R decrease okay ضق ضق forget thisيعني ما .. so if
+
+23
+00:02:19,250 --> 00:02:23,350
+if expected inflation increase the R will increase
+
+24
+00:02:23,350 --> 00:02:25,970
+so in this case the investor they are not keep
+
+25
+00:02:25,970 --> 00:02:29,050
+silent المستثمرين ما بيكتفوش اليهم they are not
+
+26
+00:02:29,050 --> 00:02:33,430
+keep silent so when I increase if you look at I
+
+27
+00:02:33,430 --> 00:02:39,230
+here when I increase the investors asking for
+
+28
+00:02:39,230 --> 00:02:42,610
+increase the nominal rate of return if you look at
+
+29
+00:02:42,610 --> 00:02:47,280
+the relationship between big Rand the expected
+
+30
+00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:53,420
+inflation so when I increase the nominal rate of
+
+31
+00:02:53,420 --> 00:02:56,400
+return increase so don't get confused on this
+
+32
+00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:01,260
+ماترتبكوش يعني just look at the equations طلعوا
+
+33
+00:03:01,260 --> 00:03:04,220
+على ال equations مظبوط if we if this increase
+
+34
+00:03:04,220 --> 00:03:07,880
+because this is positive sign so this is increase
+
+35
+00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:12,240
+but if this increase because this is negative sign
+
+36
+00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:17,500
+so this is decrease that's itيعني نرجع دائما لل
+
+37
+00:03:17,500 --> 00:03:21,620
+formulas if you get confused in your exam and I
+
+38
+00:03:21,620 --> 00:03:25,720
+ask you to correct the answer you just go back to
+
+39
+00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:29,480
+the equation and just tell yourself if this
+
+40
+00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:31,540
+increase because this is positive sign this
+
+41
+00:03:31,540 --> 00:03:34,460
+increase, if this increase because this is
+
+42
+00:03:34,460 --> 00:03:39,740
+negative sign so this is decreaseOkay so the ..
+
+43
+00:03:39,740 --> 00:03:44,040
+this is what we said in the previous meeting today
+
+44
+00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:50,120
+we will include the taxation هندخل ال taxationOkay
+
+45
+00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:55,660
+يعني نشوف what is the impact of taxation on the
+
+46
+00:03:55,660 --> 00:03:58,940
+real interest rates هنشوف أثر التكسيش على ال real
+
+47
+00:03:58,940 --> 00:04:02,840
+interest rates okay any question before talking
+
+48
+00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:10,560
+about this okay no question so
+
+49
+00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,660
+taxes we
+
+50
+00:04:14,660 --> 00:04:19,960
+say it's any incomeis subject to a particular tax
+
+51
+00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:24,560
+so investors paying tax on dividends they are
+
+52
+00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:27,540
+paying tax on their income they are paying tax on
+
+53
+00:04:27,540 --> 00:04:30,920
+their capital gains I explained this before يعني
+
+54
+00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:35,320
+ال investors هم لازم يدفعوا ضريبة لأن الحكومة
+
+55
+00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:39,240
+تتمول مشاريعها بعد ساعة فضريبة على الدخل ضريبة على
+
+56
+00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:43,420
+توزيعات الأرباح ضريبة على الأرباح الأسمادية بتاعة
+
+57
+00:04:43,420 --> 00:04:47,410
+الشركةSo tax liabilities are based on nominal
+
+58
+00:04:47,410 --> 00:04:51,970
+income ال tax لما احنا بنحسبها بنحسبها على ال
+
+59
+00:04:51,970 --> 00:04:57,650
+nominal على العقد الإسمي okay before deducting any
+
+60
+00:04:57,650 --> 00:05:02,470
+expenses جاب لما احنا particular in the interest
+
+61
+00:05:02,470 --> 00:05:05,470
+rate تحديدا في ال interest rate يعني احنا لما
+
+62
+00:05:05,470 --> 00:05:09,550
+بناخد tax we calculate tax based on this not based
+
+63
+00:05:09,550 --> 00:05:15,540
+on this okay just be carefulSo taxes are
+
+64
+00:05:15,540 --> 00:05:19,320
+calculated based on the nominal rate of income
+
+65
+00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:24,000
+بتحسب على nominal rate of income So if we want to
+
+66
+00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:31,220
+know the after tax rate you just time R 1 minus T
+
+67
+00:05:31,220 --> 00:05:41,360
+So R after tax just after tax it means R 1 minus T
+
+68
+00:05:42,530 --> 00:05:44,190
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+69
+00:05:44,190 --> 00:05:47,830
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+70
+00:05:47,830 --> 00:05:52,650
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+71
+00:05:52,650 --> 00:05:54,110
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+72
+00:05:54,110 --> 00:06:09,330
+one minus one
+
+73
+00:06:09,330 --> 00:06:10,970
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+74
+00:06:10,970 --> 00:06:11,150
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+75
+00:06:11,150 --> 00:06:11,170
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+76
+00:06:11,170 --> 00:06:11,250
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+77
+00:06:11,250 --> 00:06:23,530
+minusوهو 0.07 او 7%، لذلك بعد التجارة الواقعي هو 7
+
+78
+00:06:23,530 --> 00:06:28,420
+% لأننا قمنا بتدخل التجارةNow in this equation we
+
+79
+00:06:28,420 --> 00:06:32,820
+only consider the taxation so we should or we have
+
+80
+00:06:32,820 --> 00:06:36,120
+to put all them together taxation and inflation
+
+81
+00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:41,060
+لان احنا بال previous meeting المحاضرة
+
+82
+00:06:41,060 --> 00:06:44,240
+الفاترة حكينا بس عن ال inflation و دلوقت حكينا عن
+
+83
+00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:47,920
+ال taxation فحنحطهم التانية مع بعض ال inflation مع
+
+84
+00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:52,400
+ال taxation okay so we will see هنشوف
+
+85
+00:06:57,550 --> 00:07:00,650
+التكسيش لماذا تحصل على النمو؟ لماذا تحصل على
+
+86
+00:07:00,650 --> 00:07:07,410
+النمو؟ لأن النمو
+
+87
+00:07:07,410 --> 00:07:13,040
+يحتوي على الكثير من الفaktorsOkay so in order to
+
+88
+00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:18,240
+calculate the real we have to deduct the taxation
+
+89
+00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:22,000
+فاكره احنا خلينا هذا this is a good question بارح
+
+90
+00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:27,780
+حكينا ان ر is
+
+91
+00:07:27,780 --> 00:07:33,760
+a function of R plus inflation premium plus
+
+92
+00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,780
+liquidity premium plus maturity premium plus
+
+93
+00:07:36,780 --> 00:07:40,320
+taxation premiumI explained this formula yesterday
+
+94
+00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:47,140
+fine okay فال inflation premium is a function of
+
+95
+00:07:47,140 --> 00:07:55,880
+this is not a function of this يعني هذه يعني
+
+96
+00:07:55,880 --> 00:08:01,100
+معادلة بدلالة r مش معادلة بدلالة small r يعني هذه
+
+97
+00:08:01,100 --> 00:08:07,310
+هي اللي ال dependentهذه ال .. yes هذا هو العامل
+
+98
+00:08:07,310 --> 00:08:11,310
+الرئيسي هذه هي ال dependence فبتعتمد على العوامل
+
+99
+00:08:11,310 --> 00:08:15,390
+هذه ال inflation فبتتغير ال R تغير ال R إذا تغيرت
+
+100
+00:08:15,390 --> 00:08:19,530
+هذول و هذه R is a part of the equations هذول إذا
+
+101
+00:08:19,530 --> 00:08:22,390
+أنتوا أخدتوا بال statistics أو بال equations أو
+
+102
+00:08:22,390 --> 00:08:25,130
+بال modeling إن هذول إيش بيسميهم ال factors
+
+103
+00:08:25,130 --> 00:08:30,310
+متغيرات مستقلة ولا متغيرات تابعة مستقلة إيش رأيكم؟
+
+104
+00:08:30,310 --> 00:08:34,230
+في ناس بيحكوا تابعة في ناس مستقلةمتغيرات مستخلة
+
+105
+00:08:34,230 --> 00:08:38,710
+مستخلة بيسموها independent و هذا مستخل .. هذا ايش
+
+106
+00:08:38,710 --> 00:08:43,290
+dependent تابع so all of these factors are
+
+107
+00:08:43,290 --> 00:08:49,410
+independent so R depends on these factors ال R ال
+
+108
+00:08:49,410 --> 00:08:53,370
+big R بتعتمد على ال factors هذي for instance if
+
+109
+00:08:53,370 --> 00:08:56,490
+inflation increase look at here if inflation
+
+110
+00:08:56,490 --> 00:09:02,500
+increase R will increase denominatorif taxation
+
+111
+00:09:02,500 --> 00:09:07,080
+increase the R nominal will increase but it has an
+
+112
+00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:12,160
+opposite function with small r لكن عندهم علاقة
+
+113
+00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:14,760
+عكسية مع ال small r لأن لو أخدنا ال R على جانب
+
+114
+00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:18,740
+هتاخدوا هدول بال minus أسيبا لأن خدوا ال R على
+
+115
+00:09:18,740 --> 00:09:23,180
+جانب هيك فتساوي R بتساوي big R minus هدول كلهم
+
+116
+00:09:23,180 --> 00:09:27,090
+فهتصير negative functionI don't know your level in
+
+117
+00:09:27,090 --> 00:09:31,390
+.. on mathematics or statistics but this is the ..
+
+118
+00:09:31,390 --> 00:09:35,270
+you answer .. answer the question يعني أنا ماعرفش
+
+119
+00:09:35,270 --> 00:09:39,190
+أنا مستواكم بال mathematics لكن هذا هو ازاي انتوا
+
+120
+00:09:39,190 --> 00:09:44,510
+بتعرفوا لما نروح نودل ال R فيك نغير إشارتهم يصير
+
+121
+00:09:44,510 --> 00:09:48,490
+هذا الإجراء so and it changes in I و ال influence
+
+122
+00:09:48,490 --> 00:09:53,140
+on .. on Rany changes in taxation will influence
+
+123
+00:09:53,140 --> 00:09:56,840
+on r طب احنا زي ما حكينا لكم we will mix them
+
+124
+00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:00,200
+together هنحطهم في بعض بارح حكينا مع الinflation
+
+125
+00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,440
+اليوم حكينا مع ال taxation هنحطهم في معادلة مع بعض
+
+126
+00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:08,040
+just put in your mind these equations خلوكم حافظين
+
+127
+00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:15,200
+ال equations اللي عندكم given a tax rate T زي ما
+
+128
+00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:16,040
+احنا حطينا T
+
+129
+00:10:37,210 --> 00:10:41,830
+عارفين الكلام هذا لما احنا كنا نحكي R is equal to
+
+130
+00:10:41,830 --> 00:10:47,420
+R minus Ior expected I منذكرنا هذا البارحة هنا R
+
+131
+00:10:47,420 --> 00:10:51,280
+is equal to R minus I و قبل شوية حكينا فيها طيب
+
+132
+00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:55,000
+لما احنا بنحكي عن after taxation شوفوا كيف احنا
+
+133
+00:10:55,000 --> 00:11:01,700
+هنشفق المعادلة ببساطة هذه هتساوي R one minus T
+
+134
+00:11:01,700 --> 00:11:05,540
+okay
+
+135
+00:11:05,540 --> 00:11:15,310
+R one minus T minus Iلأننا نعتبر أن الـR هذى is
+
+136
+00:11:15,310 --> 00:11:22,010
+after tax مش احنا بناخد الضريبة و هناخد ال I فاحنا
+
+137
+00:11:22,010 --> 00:11:26,770
+دخلنا الضريبة و دخلنا ال I فاسعودنا بهذه مكانها R
+
+138
+00:11:26,770 --> 00:11:33,270
+1-T لأنه after tax minus I بعدين
+
+139
+00:11:33,270 --> 00:11:38,550
+كملنا اخر اشي المهم نصل لهذه ال formula اللى هو R
+
+140
+00:11:38,550 --> 00:11:41,270
+1-T
+
+141
+00:11:43,300 --> 00:11:48,480
+بس هذا ضرب يعني اشي سونا احنا R plus I ضربناها في
+
+142
+00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:54,330
+one minus T minus I يعني هذه هيها okayو روحنا
+
+143
+00:11:54,330 --> 00:12:00,050
+عوضنا R زائد I في one minus T بالاخير بلزمكوش
+
+144
+00:12:00,050 --> 00:12:02,690
+تحفظوا هذا طبعا بس بالاخير كنتوا تعرفوا لما احنا
+
+145
+00:12:02,690 --> 00:12:07,490
+نحط ال I مع ال T المعادلة هتيه R one minus T minus
+
+146
+00:12:07,490 --> 00:12:12,270
+IT that's it يعني بس احفظولي ال formula I'm not
+
+147
+00:12:12,270 --> 00:12:15,910
+asking you how to drive the formula مش هنسألكم كيف
+
+148
+00:12:15,910 --> 00:12:19,610
+تعملوا driving لل formula يعني مش هسألكم كيف
+
+149
+00:12:19,610 --> 00:12:27,770
+تشتقوا المعادلة بالاخير انا I'm asking youR1-T-IT
+
+150
+00:12:27,770 --> 00:12:34,570
+ناخد مثال شوف كده اكتب
+
+151
+00:12:34,570 --> 00:12:39,490
+المعادلة هذه after
+
+152
+00:12:39,490 --> 00:12:43,350
+tax tax
+
+153
+00:12:43,350 --> 00:12:50,550
+rate لنحسب ال after tax rate if
+
+154
+00:12:50,550 --> 00:13:05,010
+Iعارفين I؟ Inflation if I 6% if T is 30% اذا كانت
+
+155
+00:13:05,010 --> 00:13:11,430
+T if small r is
+
+156
+00:13:11,430 --> 00:13:16,070
+15% what is the after tax
+
+157
+00:13:18,740 --> 00:13:27,980
+ال I Inflation is 6% , T is 30% , R is 15% ف what
+
+158
+00:13:27,980 --> 00:13:32,500
+is the after tax؟ أحسبوها كلكم أحسبوها طبقوا ال
+
+159
+00:13:32,500 --> 00:13:39,420
+form إلى آخر واحدة طبقوا هذه بنادت سهلة يعني أنا
+
+160
+00:13:39,420 --> 00:13:44,020
+ماعطيكوا I و ماعطيكوا T و ماعطيكوا R بدنا ال after
+
+161
+00:13:44,020 --> 00:13:48,400
+tax بس just apply thisالكل طلع عنده عشرة و نص زي
+
+162
+00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,980
+ما حكت اذا
+
+163
+00:13:51,980 --> 00:13:56,520
+مش الكل مع الكلام فهي غلط في الحل اتأكدوا ان
+
+164
+00:13:56,520 --> 00:14:01,120
+شغلكوا صح طيب
+
+165
+00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:07,780
+كيف عملتوا هتشوفوا
+
+166
+00:14:07,780 --> 00:14:16,540
+المفروض يكون عندنا الخطف 15% واحد ناقص point 30
+
+167
+00:14:17,540 --> 00:14:25,000
+Okay خلصوها هاد لحالها، بعدين ناقص ..
+
+168
+00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,060
+كل
+
+169
+00:14:28,060 --> 00:14:37,280
+طلعهم 8.7؟ خلاص، مادام الكل بيكون إجابة صحيحة،
+
+170
+00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:42,670
+اللي ما طلعتش اتحول تحلها كام مرةتتأكد من .. اتفضل
+
+171
+00:14:42,670 --> 00:14:56,050
+اتفضل
+
+172
+00:14:56,050 --> 00:15:00,490
+اتفضل
+
+173
+00:15:00,490 --> 00:15:05,290
+اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل
+
+174
+00:15:05,290 --> 00:15:05,350
+اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل
+
+175
+00:15:12,650 --> 00:15:18,410
+طيب إيش هنستفيد من المعادلة هذه after
+
+176
+00:15:18,410 --> 00:15:26,030
+tax ال after tax real rate of return falls as the
+
+177
+00:15:26,030 --> 00:15:33,050
+inflation rate rises يعني في علاقة عكسية بين ال
+
+178
+00:15:33,050 --> 00:15:36,030
+real rate of return after tax و بين ال inflation
+
+179
+00:15:36,030 --> 00:15:40,890
+يعني كل ما ال inflation بزيدwhen the inflation
+
+180
+00:15:40,890 --> 00:15:46,010
+increase اللي هو real after tax decrease تمام؟ هاي
+
+181
+00:15:46,010 --> 00:15:50,410
+the after tax real rate of return falls falls as
+
+182
+00:15:50,410 --> 00:15:54,710
+.. as يعني بسبب as the inflation rate rises يعني
+
+183
+00:15:54,710 --> 00:15:59,250
+كل ما ال inflation rate .. rate بزيد شو بيصير؟ ال
+
+184
+00:15:59,250 --> 00:16:02,590
+real rate after tax شو بيصير فيه؟ بيزيد ولا بننقص؟
+
+185
+00:16:02,590 --> 00:16:09,050
+تنقص تنقص decrease بنخفض وانتوا دايما اتذكروا هذه
+
+186
+00:16:09,050 --> 00:16:09,390
+العلاقة
+
+187
+00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:22,700
+طبعا طيب احنا عشان نركز we talk about the impact
+
+188
+00:16:22,700 --> 00:16:26,520
+of inflation we talk about the impact of taxation
+
+189
+00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:30,320
+حكينا عن ال inflation وعن ال taxation نحكي عن ال
+
+190
+00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:35,100
+holding period الفترة الزمنية لأنه لو احنا نرجع
+
+191
+00:16:35,100 --> 00:16:39,360
+لأول يوم حكينا فيهلو روحنا احنا أخدنا مرابحة مثلا
+
+192
+00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,600
+من .. من بنك الإسلامي و حكينا عليهم بدنا لمدة سنة
+
+193
+00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:48,340
+مرابحة تبوا هان هكون المرابحة seven percent for
+
+194
+00:16:48,340 --> 00:16:51,180
+one year طب لو قلنا عليهم بدناهاش احنا one year
+
+195
+00:16:51,180 --> 00:16:56,640
+بدناه two years هتكون أقل ولا أكتر؟ يعني مثلا ممكن
+
+196
+00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:02,130
+تكون nine percent طب إذا كانت three yearsممكن أكتر
+
+197
+00:17:02,130 --> 00:17:06,530
+increase يعني مثلا نقول 12% طيب إذا كانت semi
+
+198
+00:17:06,530 --> 00:17:10,730
+-annual نص سنة نص سنة six months ممكن يكون five
+
+199
+00:17:10,730 --> 00:17:14,770
+percent what we observe in this؟ إيش احنا بنلاحظ؟
+
+200
+00:17:14,770 --> 00:17:18,510
+كل ما زادت الفترة بزيد ال holding period كل ما
+
+201
+00:17:18,510 --> 00:17:21,390
+زادت الفترة بزيد ال holding period كل ما كانت R
+
+202
+00:17:21,390 --> 00:17:27,910
+increase كل ما كانت R increase تمام؟عشان برضه
+
+203
+00:17:27,910 --> 00:17:31,590
+تأكدوا كام مرة اذا في عندى انا ال inflation بتأثر
+
+204
+00:17:31,590 --> 00:17:36,210
+بتخفض ال R عندى ال taxation بتخفض ال R عند ال
+
+205
+00:17:36,210 --> 00:17:44,690
+holding period بتزيد ال R okay نشوف
+
+206
+00:17:44,690 --> 00:17:50,430
+مثال طب
+
+207
+00:17:50,430 --> 00:17:57,050
+فكركم ليش .. ليش why Rincrease when the holding
+
+208
+00:17:57,050 --> 00:18:01,270
+period increase؟ ليش ال R بتزيد لما ال holding
+
+209
+00:18:01,270 --> 00:18:07,410
+period بتزيد؟ يعني تطلعوا على ال chart هنا تطلعوا
+
+210
+00:18:07,410 --> 00:18:13,250
+على ال .. بدي أنا أسألكوا سؤال يعنى، هذا half year
+
+211
+00:18:13,250 --> 00:18:17,570
+مظبوط؟ نص سنة كم كان ال rates؟
+
+212
+00:18:20,350 --> 00:18:25,450
+طب لما صارنا سنة one year كام صار ال rate؟ 4.69
+
+213
+00:18:25,450 --> 00:18:33,150
+زاد ولا زاد؟ زاد زاد لو صار 25 years 3.29 طب why?
+
+214
+00:18:34,510 --> 00:18:38,490
+why when we increase the holding periods the
+
+215
+00:18:38,490 --> 00:18:44,770
+interest rate increase? why؟ ليش؟ ممكن تفتر مفتر
+
+216
+00:18:44,770 --> 00:18:49,790
+أكتر yes because of risk because of riskيعني كل ما
+
+217
+00:18:49,790 --> 00:18:54,630
+احنا زادت ال .. ال holding period they .. the risk
+
+218
+00:18:54,630 --> 00:18:59,270
+will increase مظبوط؟ because increase the
+
+219
+00:18:59,270 --> 00:19:03,850
+uncertainty بيزيد ال uncertainty عدم التأكد
+
+220
+00:19:03,850 --> 00:19:07,370
+tomorrow we .. we may know what is going tomorrow
+
+221
+00:19:07,370 --> 00:19:13,670
+the day after tomorrow we may or we may not the
+
+222
+00:19:13,670 --> 00:19:16,940
+same day in the next year we don't knowOkay the
+
+223
+00:19:16,940 --> 00:19:21,480
+same day with after ten years we don't know إذا
+
+224
+00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,020
+بكرا ممكن نعرف بعد بكرا برضه ممكن لكن لسبوع الجاي
+
+225
+00:19:25,020 --> 00:19:29,780
+ما .. لكن لسبوع من السنة الجاية لسبوع زي هذا من
+
+226
+00:19:29,780 --> 00:19:32,320
+السنة الجاية we don't know after ten years you
+
+227
+00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,720
+don't knowSo the thing is هي when the holding
+
+228
+00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:40,940
+period increase the risk increase and it increase
+
+229
+00:19:40,940 --> 00:19:45,780
+the uncertainty تزيد ال air عدم التأكد uncertainty
+
+230
+00:19:45,780 --> 00:19:54,440
+خليني أرجع نشوف zero carbon bond I explained what
+
+231
+00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:59,480
+it means zero carbon bond what it means أخدناها في
+
+232
+00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:07,140
+chapter oneفى فائدة هذا؟ لأ لأ، zero فكيف من بيع؟
+
+233
+00:20:07,140 --> 00:20:10,440
+خاصة، discount، هذا جيبنالكم يا عم ماعرفش أقولكوا
+
+234
+00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:15,800
+انه لا، discount اه، اه، so I know this, I repeat
+
+235
+00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,020
+it many times because in the .. in the final exam
+
+236
+00:20:19,020 --> 00:20:22,140
+you face the same problem هتواجه نفس المشكلة،
+
+237
+00:20:22,140 --> 00:20:28,190
+هتطلع التلاتةexclude the treasury bonds because
+
+238
+00:20:28,190 --> 00:20:31,130
+the treasury bonds is not selling by discount
+
+239
+00:20:31,130 --> 00:20:36,730
+مافيش فيها discount as well as the corporate bonds
+
+240
+00:20:36,730 --> 00:20:44,390
+I think A and C okay zero carbon bonds so there is
+
+241
+00:20:44,390 --> 00:20:47,410
+no interest here is discount here is the discount
+
+242
+00:20:47,410 --> 00:20:50,870
+rate the bar value no bar value is one hundred
+
+243
+00:20:50,870 --> 00:20:58,740
+dollar T maturityفترة الاستحقاق be the price and
+
+244
+00:20:58,740 --> 00:21:02,780
+RF is the risk-free total risk-free return يعني
+
+245
+00:21:02,780 --> 00:21:08,180
+هذا هو ال discount تبقى حيكون فنشوف ال risk-free
+
+246
+00:21:08,180 --> 00:21:16,580
+ال R is equal one hundred the bar value ال
+
+247
+00:21:16,580 --> 00:21:19,020
+هو ال one hundred هشوف ال bar value
+
+248
+00:21:23,330 --> 00:21:32,390
+divided by the price of tea maturity okay على ال
+
+249
+00:21:32,390 --> 00:21:35,550
+price at the maturity date يعني ال price اليوم
+
+250
+00:21:35,550 --> 00:21:38,430
+بكرا بعده فهذا ال price بتغير according to the
+
+251
+00:21:38,430 --> 00:21:42,090
+maturity حسب ال maturity هذا عشان احنا نحسب to
+
+252
+00:21:42,090 --> 00:21:46,990
+calculate the RF اذا
+
+253
+00:21:46,990 --> 00:21:50,150
+بدنا نحسب ال risk free ال risk free بتساوي ال bar
+
+254
+00:21:50,150 --> 00:21:58,050
+valueال bar value علي اللي هو ال discount فكل ما
+
+255
+00:21:58,050 --> 00:22:04,530
+احنا زادت الفترة الزمنية هذا بزيد ف ال return بزيد
+
+256
+00:22:04,530 --> 00:22:10,410
+يعني خليني انا اشوف لو كان احنا عندنا 100 دولار و
+
+257
+00:22:10,410 --> 00:22:18,350
+ال discount كان 9 9% ناقص واحد جربوها عنكم بالأقل
+
+258
+00:22:18,350 --> 00:22:28,760
+الحسبةيعني خانح كان سهل كان تسعة مية
+
+259
+00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:36,600
+على تسعة عشرة
+
+260
+00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:42,700
+okay بعد ما خفضنا الواحد okay بتكون هنا ال risk
+
+261
+00:22:42,700 --> 00:22:46,200
+free كانت 11.1
+
+262
+00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:55,160
+أيش روحنا احنا سونا بس روحنا غيرنا ال .. غيرنا ال
+
+263
+00:22:55,160 --> 00:23:00,120
+.. ال hoarding period بدل ما half year و one year
+
+264
+00:23:00,120 --> 00:23:03,480
+و ال .. okay طبخنا المعادلة هذه فاكرين هذه
+
+265
+00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:08,920
+المعادلة هذه هي هذه المعادلة طلعوا
+
+266
+00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:14,760
+على المعادلة مية بيتي minus one هي مية المية ال
+
+267
+00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:19,710
+bar value مابتتغيرش خدوا دعاكمايش اللي اتغير؟ اللي
+
+268
+00:23:19,710 --> 00:23:24,310
+اتغير ال price السعر تلاحظوا انتوا السعر شو بيصير
+
+269
+00:23:24,310 --> 00:23:29,750
+فيه لما الفترة الزمنية بيزيد السعر
+
+270
+00:23:29,750 --> 00:23:32,610
+بيخلق طب ايش .. ايش اللي بيزيد طيب؟ ال discount
+
+271
+00:23:32,610 --> 00:23:37,770
+بيزيد الخاصن بيزيد يعني احنا اذا حملنا السند هذا
+
+272
+00:23:37,770 --> 00:23:43,850
+لسنة .. لنص سنة بيكون عندى سبعة و تسعين دولار جداش
+
+273
+00:23:43,850 --> 00:23:48,290
+حصلت على خاصن اللي هو اتنين دولار و اشيطب إذا
+
+274
+00:23:48,290 --> 00:23:52,150
+حللتوا لسنة بصير حوالي أخدت أربعة دولار و نص
+
+275
+00:23:52,150 --> 00:23:56,170
+discount مظبوط طلعوا على ال 95 ال bar value ثابتة
+
+276
+00:23:56,170 --> 00:23:59,610
+مابتتغيرش و الواحد .. إيش اللي قاعد بتغير انتوا ال
+
+277
+00:23:59,610 --> 00:24:02,730
+price طلعوا طلعوا picture this picture يعني صوروا
+
+278
+00:24:02,730 --> 00:24:06,610
+الأمر إيش بس اللي بتغير ال price طب ال price إيش
+
+279
+00:24:06,610 --> 00:24:08,930
+بتغير لإن ال holding period زاد لإن ال holding
+
+280
+00:24:08,930 --> 00:24:19,800
+period بتزيد طيب خليني أسهلككم أكتر لو ..احنا قلنا
+
+281
+00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:25,060
+لك التالي انه بدي انا اخد منكوا مية دولار بدي اخد
+
+282
+00:24:25,060 --> 00:24:31,240
+منكوا كام؟ مية دولار okay هاي مية دولار قلتلكوا
+
+283
+00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,920
+بدي استدكوا إياها بكرا فقول okay ماشي مية دولار
+
+284
+00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,320
+سوى مية دولارطب لو قلتلكوا انا بدي أسدكوا إياها
+
+285
+00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,660
+بعد ست شهور ال 100 دولار هل ال 100 دولار is equal
+
+286
+00:24:40,660 --> 00:24:43,760
+one hundred dollar after six months طب أقل ولا
+
+287
+00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,600
+أكتر؟ أقل اكتر أقل طيب اللي انا اختاره انه كانت
+
+288
+00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,660
+قيمتها سبعة و تسعين دولار كده سعر فارج؟ discount
+
+289
+00:24:51,660 --> 00:24:55,200
+تلاتة دولار خلاص تحطوا هيك discount three dollar
+
+290
+00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:59,420
+طب قلتلكوا لأ انا بدي اياهم أسدكوا إياهم بعد سنة
+
+291
+00:24:59,420 --> 00:25:05,240
+مش بعد ست شهور ال 100 دولار هدول هل أقل من سبعة و
+
+292
+00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,730
+تسعين ولا أكتر؟ممكن 94 و بالتالي ال discount كده
+
+293
+00:25:08,730 --> 00:25:13,390
+ايش صار؟ 6 فشوفوا ال discount بيزيد طب قلتلكوا لأ
+
+294
+00:25:13,390 --> 00:25:16,170
+هذه ال 100 دولار انا هزيد .. هسدكوا إياها بعد تالت
+
+295
+00:25:16,170 --> 00:25:22,290
+سنين هزيد ال discount أكتر فممكن ال 100 دولار ممكن
+
+296
+00:25:22,290 --> 00:25:26,730
+85 فصار ال discount 15 دولار طب ماشي قلتلكوا انا
+
+297
+00:25:26,730 --> 00:25:29,830
+هذه ال 100 دولار هزيد .. هسدكوا إياها بعد عشر سنين
+
+298
+00:25:29,830 --> 00:25:36,120
+100 دولار بعد عشر سنين ممكن تسوى عشرة دولارمظبوط
+
+299
+00:25:36,120 --> 00:25:40,580
+تفقد من قيمتها فاكرين احنا لما حكينا عن مهر الحجات
+
+300
+00:25:40,580 --> 00:25:46,260
+زمان نفس الفكرة 100$ ساندتها 10$ ففقرة من قيمتها
+
+301
+00:25:46,260 --> 00:25:49,660
+ال discount 90$ فكل ما بيزيد ال holding period
+
+302
+00:25:49,660 --> 00:25:54,620
+بتزيد كل ما بيزيد ال holding period كل ما بيزيد ال
+
+303
+00:25:54,620 --> 00:26:00,600
+discount ماشي
+
+304
+00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:06,410
+هلا بدي انا اعطيكي 100$Okay أنا أخد منك مية دولار،
+
+305
+00:26:06,410 --> 00:26:10,630
+بنفع أنا بدأ أخد منك مية دولار، يعني أنا أداية منك
+
+306
+00:26:10,630 --> 00:26:16,330
+مية دولار، هل جيت هذه المية دولار قيمتها بعد سنة
+
+307
+00:26:16,330 --> 00:26:20,070
+تساوي مية دولار؟
+
+308
+00:26:20,070 --> 00:26:24,290
+قيمة المية دولار، طيب نسهلها شوية أكتر، المية
+
+309
+00:26:24,290 --> 00:26:30,480
+دولار هذه بتشتري فيها مثلا كسين سكر اليومطب بعد
+
+310
+00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,720
+خمس سنين بتشتري فيهم كيسان سُكّار؟ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+311
+00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,880
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+312
+00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:36,000
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+313
+00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:36,720
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+314
+00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:37,680
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+315
+00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,460
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+316
+00:26:39,460 --> 00:26:47,000
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ ل
+
+317
+00:26:59,340 --> 00:27:06,340
+عشان نحسب ال R عشان نحسب ال R ال bar value divided
+
+318
+00:27:06,340 --> 00:27:12,800
+by the price of the treasury bonds minus 1 فال
+
+319
+00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:17,300
+price divided by the treasury bonds على نقص 1 فبعد
+
+320
+00:27:17,300 --> 00:27:23,280
+الحسبة نجدنا احنا 2.7 percent after one year 4.69
+
+321
+00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,400
+after 25 yearsthree hundred twenty nine percent
+
+322
+00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:34,100
+يعني بعد خمسة و عشرين سنة المية دولار الواحدة
+
+323
+00:27:34,100 --> 00:27:39,320
+بتصير تلت مية دولار بتضاعف بتصير tripled بتصير تلت
+
+324
+00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:43,560
+مرات مضاعفتها after twenty five years fixing the
+
+325
+00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,780
+inflation تخدوا باكم احنا we .. we .. we .. we fix
+
+326
+00:27:47,780 --> 00:27:49,780
+the inflation تخدوا باكم لو روحنا دخلنا ال
+
+327
+00:27:49,780 --> 00:27:54,300
+inflation كمانهذه بس بوجود ال holding period دخلنا
+
+328
+00:27:54,300 --> 00:27:57,340
+بس ال holding period لكن تصور لو احنا دخلنا ال
+
+329
+00:27:57,340 --> 00:27:59,300
+holding period دخلنا ال inflation دخلنا ال
+
+330
+00:27:59,300 --> 00:28:02,920
+taxation تلاتة مع بعض what is the hell of this
+
+331
+00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,480
+equation؟
+
+332
+00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,740
+هو بتعني it's complicated تمام؟ so you understand
+
+333
+00:28:09,740 --> 00:28:15,260
+this يعني احنا هنجيبلكم مثلا في ال exam هنجيبلكم
+
+334
+00:28:15,260 --> 00:28:19,340
+معلومات ل price هعطيكم بار value and ask you about
+
+335
+00:28:19,340 --> 00:28:26,130
+the calculate Rفي حد مش عارف يحسب R؟ هذه اللي مش
+
+336
+00:28:26,130 --> 00:28:31,210
+عارف يحكيلي اللي مش عارف يحسب آخر عمود طلع فيه
+
+337
+00:28:31,210 --> 00:28:37,490
+منيح هذا الرقم okay ما احنا اليوم احنا .. احنا we
+
+338
+00:28:37,490 --> 00:28:42,790
+are in the heaven احنا هلأ بالجنة يعني and we can
+
+339
+00:28:42,790 --> 00:28:47,210
+talk as much as we can but when we are in the exam
+
+340
+00:28:49,290 --> 00:28:54,870
+so what you can do try it now is much better than
+
+341
+00:28:54,870 --> 00:28:58,590
+trying in the exam لإنه إحنا نجربها هان أحسن ما
+
+342
+00:28:58,590 --> 00:29:07,350
+نجربها في الامتحان okay هاي هادي تطلع two point
+
+343
+00:29:07,350 --> 00:29:12,870
+seven percent يعني مية عملنا مية تقسيم سبعة وتسعين
+
+344
+00:29:12,870 --> 00:29:17,110
+minus ستة وتلاتين بس في حد بعرفش يعني الكلام هذا
+
+345
+00:29:17,750 --> 00:29:21,030
+بعدين تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+346
+00:29:21,030 --> 00:29:29,510
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+347
+00:29:29,510 --> 00:29:29,850
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+348
+00:29:29,850 --> 00:29:29,870
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+349
+00:29:29,870 --> 00:29:29,990
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+350
+00:29:29,990 --> 00:29:30,190
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+351
+00:29:30,190 --> 00:29:31,590
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+352
+00:29:31,590 --> 00:29:31,790
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+353
+00:29:31,790 --> 00:29:38,150
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع
+
+354
+00:29:38,150 --> 00:29:46,230
+هذا الجواب تطلع
+
+355
+00:29:46,230 --> 00:29:46,350
+هذا
+
+356
+00:29:50,660 --> 00:29:57,900
+احسبوها يا بنات عشان تتأكدوا شغله صح وين
+
+357
+00:29:57,900 --> 00:30:06,100
+القلعة الحاس بتاعتكنتوا؟ طلعت
+
+358
+00:30:06,100 --> 00:30:09,360
+مظبوط؟
+
+359
+00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:14,060
+مين
+
+360
+00:30:14,060 --> 00:30:20,950
+ما طلعتش عنده؟ بالظبط مين ما طلعتش عنده؟يعني تطلع
+
+361
+00:30:20,950 --> 00:30:24,950
+عندك ال gate أحسن ما تطلعش في ال exam، يعني يا
+
+362
+00:30:24,950 --> 00:30:31,310
+بنات أنا intentionally في ال multiple choice عند
+
+363
+00:30:31,310 --> 00:30:34,770
+ال .. يعني بقدر أعرف أن وين إمكانية تخطأ في القانة
+
+364
+00:30:34,770 --> 00:30:38,510
+الحاسبة، فلاحظوا يعني أنا كنت أمر في الامتحان،
+
+365
+00:30:38,510 --> 00:30:42,900
+ماعرفش مين سألنا بالبنات بدون إحراجفجدت ليه بيطلع
+
+366
+00:30:42,900 --> 00:30:46,480
+جوابين في ال .. okay yes في جوابين أكيد في جوابين
+
+367
+00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,800
+أقولك كمان في أربع أجوبة و الأربع أجوبة هيطلعوا
+
+368
+00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,620
+معاكي في الأقل الحاسبة لأنه أنا بعرف وين احنا
+
+369
+00:30:52,620 --> 00:30:56,420
+تغلطي و ده ليش احنا يعني حاطين multiple choice مش
+
+370
+00:30:56,420 --> 00:31:01,740
+معقول انا مثلا أحطلك خمسين مثلا أجي أقول مثلا x
+
+371
+00:31:01,740 --> 00:31:06,360
+divided by y minus one okay
+
+372
+00:31:08,030 --> 00:31:11,850
+احتمالات الخطأ ان انا هستعمل x-1 على y هذا خطأ
+
+373
+00:31:11,850 --> 00:31:19,390
+هتصير x على y okay بدون ما هي ايه اترحل one
+
+374
+00:31:19,390 --> 00:31:24,450
+وبالتالي كل ال possibilities انا هاخدها بالازبارة
+
+375
+00:31:24,450 --> 00:31:28,370
+حطولا كليها بال multiple choice بالظبط ايش ما
+
+376
+00:31:28,370 --> 00:31:30,570
+تجاوبيها هتلاقيها موجودة بال multiple choice ايه
+
+377
+00:31:30,570 --> 00:31:36,250
+صار معاكي هيكلأنه لو احنا في صف رابع ابتدائي
+
+378
+00:31:36,250 --> 00:31:42,430
+قالولنا القسم أولى صح ولا لأ فخلصي هذه يلا بعدين
+
+379
+00:31:42,430 --> 00:31:47,990
+خلصي هذه هو حسب ما انت بتعرفي هذه المشكلة في حد
+
+380
+00:31:47,990 --> 00:31:48,970
+عنده سؤال يا بنات؟
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..bb14156d90f17b3850f023c0470efa0c1c7b9260
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 4804, "start": 21.16, "end": 48.04, "text": "بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا بنحكي ب chapter five و بنحكي عن ال risk و ال interest rate of return in the previous meeting we talked about factors influence on the interest rate يعني المحاضر الفاتر حكينا عن العوامل اللي بتأثر على ال interest rate يعني مين بيقدر يقولي إيش هي العوامل اللي كنا نحكي فيها", "tokens": [3555, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 5016, 4117, 1829, 4724, 7187, 1732, 4032, 44945, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 3148, 4032, 2423, 1179, 3314, 295, 2736, 294, 264, 3894, 3440, 321, 2825, 466, 6771, 6503, 322, 264, 1179, 3314, 37495, 22653, 9673, 5016, 46958, 2288, 27188, 9307, 2288, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 18871, 18863, 2407, 10943, 1211, 13672, 1829, 39894, 10721, 49115, 15844, 2423, 1179, 3314, 37495, 22653, 3714, 9957, 4724, 1829, 28543, 2288, 7251, 39648, 1829, 11933, 1829, 8592, 39896, 18863, 2407, 10943, 1211, 13672, 1829, 9122, 8315, 8717, 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اذا احنا بدنا نعرف R so R is equal big R minus expected I so", "tokens": [32023, 497, 597, 307, 264, 41641, 307, 2681, 1359, 497, 597, 307, 264, 957, 1804, 5176, 286, 5176, 286, 307, 264, 5176, 15860, 1392, 370, 321, 500, 380, 362, 1154, 322, 341, 498, 321, 528, 281, 12539, 497, 1359, 497, 1975, 15730, 1975, 5016, 8315, 47525, 8315, 8717, 3615, 28480, 497, 370, 497, 307, 2681, 955, 497, 3175, 5176, 286, 370], "avg_logprob": -0.2224042271414111, "compression_ratio": 1.5535714285714286, "no_speech_prob": 2.384185791015625e-07, "words": [{"start": 76.75, "end": 77.11, "word": "Big", "probability": 0.342041015625}, {"start": 77.11, "end": 77.43, "word": " R", "probability": 0.9111328125}, {"start": 77.43, "end": 78.19, "word": " which", "probability": 0.69677734375}, {"start": 78.19, "end": 78.41, "word": " is", "probability": 0.97216796875}, {"start": 78.41, "end": 78.73, "word": " the", "probability": 0.87890625}, {"start": 78.73, "end": 80.47, "word": " nominal", "probability": 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يعني بيكون علاقة الفائدة الحقيقية مع التضخم هي علاقة عكسية زي ما احنا شايفين if this if I increase if I increase R decrease okay ضق ضق forget this", "tokens": [826, 393, 980, 300, 497, 264, 4942, 3314, 295, 2736, 420, 264, 4942, 1179, 3314, 575, 257, 3671, 2445, 365, 264, 5176, 15860, 37495, 22653, 4724, 1829, 30544, 11203, 995, 28671, 27188, 16373, 41891, 21542, 38436, 4587, 10632, 20449, 16712, 11242, 9778, 2304, 39896, 11203, 995, 28671, 6225, 4117, 3794, 10632, 30767, 1829, 19446, 1975, 5016, 8315, 13412, 995, 33911, 9957, 498, 341, 498, 286, 3488, 498, 286, 3488, 497, 11514, 1392, 48812, 4587, 48812, 4587, 2870, 341], "avg_logprob": -0.18215981352178356, "compression_ratio": 1.5636363636363637, "no_speech_prob": 5.364418029785156e-07, "words": [{"start": 105.35, "end": 105.65, "word": "we", "probability": 0.60888671875}, {"start": 105.65, "end": 106.05, "word": " can", "probability": 0.9677734375}, {"start": 106.05, "end": 106.55, "word": " tell", "probability": 0.923828125}, 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0.82177734375}, {"start": 215.4, "end": 215.62, "word": " this", "probability": 0.94677734375}, {"start": 215.62, "end": 215.74, "word": " is", "probability": 0.6689453125}, {"start": 215.74, "end": 216.28, "word": " decrease", "probability": 0.8427734375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 8, "seek": 22880, "start": 217.58, "end": 228.8, "text": "Okay so the .. this is what we said in the previous meeting today we will include the taxation هندخل ال taxation", "tokens": [8297, 370, 264, 4386, 341, 307, 437, 321, 848, 294, 264, 3894, 3440, 965, 321, 486, 4090, 264, 47072, 8032, 41260, 9778, 1211, 2423, 47072], "avg_logprob": -0.22325720638036728, "compression_ratio": 1.1226415094339623, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 217.58, "end": 217.98, "word": "Okay", "probability": 0.888671875}, {"start": 217.98, "end": 218.82, "word": " so", "probability": 0.364501953125}, {"start": 218.82, "end": 219.08, "word": " the", "probability": 0.50439453125}, {"start": 219.08, "end": 219.74, 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" بعد", "probability": 0.60888671875}, {"start": 276.38, "end": 276.68, "word": " ساعة", "probability": 0.88037109375}, {"start": 276.68, "end": 277.56, "word": " فضريبة", "probability": 0.92529296875}, {"start": 277.56, "end": 277.78, "word": " على", "probability": 0.93359375}, {"start": 277.78, "end": 278.24, "word": " الدخل", "probability": 0.9850260416666666}, {"start": 278.24, "end": 279.04, "word": " ضريبة", "probability": 0.9124348958333334}, {"start": 279.04, "end": 279.24, "word": " على", "probability": 0.93212890625}, {"start": 279.24, "end": 280.38, "word": " توزيعات", "probability": 0.78955078125}, {"start": 280.38, "end": 280.84, "word": " الأرباح", "probability": 0.9607747395833334}, {"start": 280.84, "end": 281.42, "word": " ضريبة", "probability": 0.9689127604166666}, {"start": 281.42, "end": 281.62, "word": " على", "probability": 0.9599609375}, {"start": 281.62, "end": 282.0, "word": " الأرباح", "probability": 0.9842122395833334}, {"start": 282.0, "end": 282.66, "word": 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{"start": 608.12, "end": 608.58, "word": " equations", "probability": 0.984375}, {"start": 608.58, "end": 609.88, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.95263671875}, {"start": 609.88, "end": 611.4, "word": " عندكم", "probability": 0.91748046875}, {"start": 611.4, "end": 613.34, "word": " given", "probability": 0.79296875}, {"start": 613.34, "end": 613.6, "word": " a", "probability": 0.958984375}, {"start": 613.6, "end": 613.84, "word": " tax", "probability": 0.94921875}, {"start": 613.84, "end": 614.1, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.97900390625}, {"start": 614.1, "end": 614.44, "word": " T", "probability": 0.669921875}, {"start": 614.44, "end": 615.14, "word": " زي", "probability": 0.957275390625}, {"start": 615.14, "end": 615.2, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.650390625}, {"start": 615.2, "end": 615.4, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9607747395833334}, {"start": 615.4, "end": 615.78, "word": " حطينا", "probability": 0.9307861328125}, {"start": 615.78, "end": 616.04, "word": " T", "probability": 0.9052734375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 24, "seek": 64319, "start": 637.21, "end": 643.19, "text": "عارفين الكلام هذا لما احنا كنا نحكي R is equal to R minus I", "tokens": [3615, 9640, 5172, 9957, 2423, 28820, 10943, 23758, 5296, 15042, 1975, 5016, 8315, 9122, 8315, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 497, 307, 2681, 281, 497, 3175, 286], "avg_logprob": -0.27126736994142886, "compression_ratio": 1.0476190476190477, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 637.21, "end": 637.89, "word": "عارفين", "probability": 0.7263412475585938}, {"start": 637.89, "end": 638.19, "word": " الكلام", "probability": 0.9479166666666666}, {"start": 638.19, "end": 638.49, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.9677734375}, {"start": 638.49, "end": 639.19, "word": " لما", "probability": 0.74169921875}, {"start": 639.19, "end": 639.35, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.90283203125}, {"start": 639.35, "end": 639.57, "word": " كنا", "probability": 0.986572265625}, {"start": 639.57, "end": 639.89, "word": " نحكي", "probability": 0.987060546875}, {"start": 639.89, "end": 640.29, "word": " R", "probability": 0.409423828125}, {"start": 640.29, "end": 641.27, "word": " is", "probability": 0.1378173828125}, {"start": 641.27, "end": 641.63, "word": " equal", "probability": 0.873046875}, {"start": 641.63, "end": 641.83, "word": " to", "probability": 0.6240234375}, {"start": 641.83, "end": 642.09, "word": " R", "probability": 0.90478515625}, {"start": 642.09, "end": 642.55, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.791015625}, {"start": 642.55, "end": 643.19, "word": " I", "probability": 0.9560546875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 25, "seek": 66924, "start": 644.4, "end": 669.24, "text": "or expected I منذكرنا هذا البارحة هنا R is equal to R minus I و قبل شوية حكينا فيها طيب لما احنا بنحكي عن after taxation شوفوا كيف احنا هنشفق المعادلة ببساطة هذه هتساوي R one minus T okay R one minus T minus I", "tokens": [284, 5176, 286, 9154, 8848, 37983, 8315, 23758, 29739, 9640, 5016, 3660, 34105, 497, 307, 2681, 281, 497, 3175, 286, 4032, 12174, 36150, 13412, 2407, 10632, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 8978, 11296, 23032, 1829, 3555, 5296, 15042, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 934, 47072, 13412, 38688, 14407, 9122, 33911, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8032, 1863, 8592, 5172, 4587, 9673, 3615, 18513, 37977, 4724, 3555, 3794, 41193, 3660, 29538, 8032, 2655, 3794, 995, 45865, 497, 472, 3175, 314, 1392, 497, 472, 3175, 314, 3175, 286], "avg_logprob": -0.21892959530326142, "compression_ratio": 1.507462686567164, "no_speech_prob": 5.364418029785156e-07, "words": [{"start": 644.4, "end": 644.66, "word": "or", "probability": 0.3486328125}, {"start": 644.66, "end": 645.08, "word": " expected", "probability": 0.90625}, {"start": 645.08, "end": 645.28, "word": " I", "probability": 0.338623046875}, {"start": 645.28, "end": 645.78, "word": " منذكرنا", "probability": 0.730621337890625}, {"start": 645.78, "end": 645.98, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.51806640625}, {"start": 645.98, "end": 646.4, "word": " البارحة", "probability": 0.76690673828125}, {"start": 646.4, "end": 646.66, "word": " هنا", "probability": 0.2215576171875}, {"start": 646.66, "end": 647.42, "word": " R", "probability": 0.33544921875}, {"start": 647.42, "end": 647.66, "word": " is", "probability": 0.1533203125}, {"start": 647.66, "end": 647.96, "word": " equal", "probability": 0.87841796875}, {"start": 647.96, "end": 648.06, "word": " to", "probability": 0.8046875}, {"start": 648.06, "end": 648.2, "word": " R", "probability": 0.85693359375}, {"start": 648.2, "end": 648.44, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.833984375}, {"start": 648.44, "end": 648.78, "word": " I", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 648.78, "end": 649.8, "word": " و", "probability": 0.626953125}, {"start": 649.8, "end": 650.04, "word": " قبل", "probability": 0.83544921875}, {"start": 650.04, "end": 650.3, "word": " شوية", "probability": 0.8802083333333334}, {"start": 650.3, "end": 650.56, "word": " حكينا", "probability": 0.85693359375}, {"start": 650.56, "end": 650.86, "word": " فيها", "probability": 0.955078125}, {"start": 650.86, "end": 651.28, "word": " طيب", "probability": 0.8948567708333334}, {"start": 651.28, "end": 652.02, "word": " لما", "probability": 0.878662109375}, {"start": 652.02, "end": 652.24, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8639322916666666}, {"start": 652.24, "end": 652.64, "word": " بنحكي", "probability": 0.9033203125}, {"start": 652.64, "end": 652.76, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.7841796875}, {"start": 652.76, "end": 653.06, "word": " after", "probability": 0.83251953125}, {"start": 653.06, "end": 653.62, "word": " taxation", "probability": 0.95263671875}, {"start": 653.62, "end": 654.64, "word": " شوفوا", "probability": 0.9361979166666666}, {"start": 654.64, "end": 654.8, "word": " كيف", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 654.8, "end": 655.0, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9368489583333334}, {"start": 655.0, "end": 655.5, "word": " هنشفق", "probability": 0.85126953125}, {"start": 655.5, "end": 656.42, "word": " المعادلة", "probability": 0.9913330078125}, {"start": 656.42, "end": 657.54, "word": " ببساطة", "probability": 0.98525390625}, {"start": 657.54, "end": 659.02, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.501953125}, {"start": 659.02, "end": 659.58, "word": " هتساوي", "probability": 0.9048828125}, {"start": 659.58, "end": 660.06, "word": " R", "probability": 0.87890625}, {"start": 660.06, "end": 660.8, "word": " one", "probability": 0.461181640625}, {"start": 660.8, "end": 661.38, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.97265625}, {"start": 661.38, "end": 661.7, "word": " T", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 661.7, "end": 665.54, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.42529296875}, {"start": 665.54, "end": 667.76, "word": " R", "probability": 0.79736328125}, {"start": 667.76, "end": 668.08, "word": " one", "probability": 0.9228515625}, {"start": 668.08, "end": 668.38, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.986328125}, {"start": 668.38, "end": 668.58, "word": " T", "probability": 0.9814453125}, {"start": 668.58, "end": 668.92, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.98388671875}, {"start": 668.92, "end": 669.24, "word": " I", "probability": 0.9931640625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 26, "seek": 70127, "start": 671.83, "end": 701.27, "text": "لأننا نعتبر أن الـR هذى is after tax مش احنا بناخد الضريبة و هناخد ال I فاحنا دخلنا الضريبة و دخلنا ال I فاسعودنا بهذه مكانها R 1-T لأنه after tax minus I بعدين كملنا اخر اشي المهم نصل لهذه ال formula اللى هو R 1-T", "tokens": [1211, 33456, 8315, 8717, 34268, 26890, 14739, 2423, 39184, 49, 8032, 8848, 7578, 307, 934, 3366, 37893, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 47283, 3215, 6024, 114, 16572, 49401, 4032, 8032, 1863, 47283, 3215, 2423, 286, 6156, 39319, 8315, 11778, 9778, 1211, 8315, 6024, 114, 16572, 49401, 4032, 11778, 9778, 1211, 8315, 2423, 286, 6156, 32277, 3615, 23328, 8315, 39627, 24192, 3714, 41361, 11296, 497, 502, 12, 51, 5296, 33456, 3224, 934, 3366, 3175, 286, 39182, 9957, 9122, 42213, 8315, 1975, 34740, 1975, 8592, 1829, 9673, 16095, 8717, 36520, 46740, 24192, 2423, 8513, 13672, 7578, 31439, 497, 502, 12, 51], "avg_logprob": -0.2924558050704725, "compression_ratio": 1.6798029556650247, "no_speech_prob": 2.384185791015625e-07, "words": [{"start": 671.83, "end": 672.27, "word": "لأننا", "probability": 0.5402018229166666}, {"start": 672.27, "end": 672.61, "word": " نعتبر", "probability": 0.9225260416666666}, {"start": 672.61, "end": 672.79, "word": " أن", "probability": 0.59521484375}, {"start": 672.79, "end": 673.11, "word": " الـR", "probability": 0.40673828125}, {"start": 673.11, "end": 673.61, "word": " هذى", "probability": 0.4590250651041667}, {"start": 673.61, "end": 675.31, "word": " is", "probability": 0.408203125}, {"start": 675.31, "end": 675.65, "word": " after", "probability": 0.8798828125}, {"start": 675.65, "end": 676.09, "word": " tax", "probability": 0.79150390625}, {"start": 676.09, "end": 678.47, "word": " مش", "probability": 0.1707763671875}, {"start": 678.47, "end": 678.63, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8759765625}, {"start": 678.63, "end": 679.07, "word": " بناخد", "probability": 0.8653971354166666}, {"start": 679.07, "end": 679.67, "word": " الضريبة", "probability": 0.8646240234375}, {"start": 679.67, "end": 680.29, "word": " و", "probability": 0.90625}, {"start": 680.29, "end": 680.69, "word": " هناخد", "probability": 0.80438232421875}, {"start": 680.69, "end": 680.85, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.6240234375}, {"start": 680.85, "end": 681.03, "word": " I", "probability": 0.4814453125}, {"start": 681.03, "end": 682.01, "word": " فاحنا", "probability": 0.8310546875}, {"start": 682.01, "end": 682.45, "word": " دخلنا", "probability": 0.9254150390625}, {"start": 682.45, "end": 682.85, "word": " الضريبة", "probability": 0.9730224609375}, {"start": 682.85, "end": 683.67, "word": " و", "probability": 0.97412109375}, {"start": 683.67, "end": 684.01, "word": " دخلنا", "probability": 0.9573974609375}, {"start": 684.01, "end": 684.11, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.8828125}, {"start": 684.11, "end": 684.33, "word": " I", "probability": 0.96142578125}, {"start": 684.33, "end": 685.71, "word": " فاسعودنا", "probability": 0.90439453125}, {"start": 685.71, "end": 686.05, "word": " بهذه", "probability": 0.785400390625}, {"start": 686.05, "end": 686.49, "word": " مكانها", "probability": 0.91064453125}, {"start": 686.49, "end": 686.77, "word": " R", "probability": 0.814453125}, {"start": 686.77, "end": 686.97, "word": " 1", "probability": 0.454833984375}, {"start": 686.97, "end": 687.49, "word": "-T", "probability": 0.6396484375}, {"start": 687.49, "end": 687.83, "word": " لأنه", "probability": 0.79248046875}, {"start": 687.83, "end": 688.01, "word": " after", "probability": 0.8740234375}, {"start": 688.01, "end": 688.45, "word": " tax", "probability": 0.9296875}, {"start": 688.45, "end": 689.57, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.5009765625}, {"start": 689.57, "end": 690.03, "word": " I", "probability": 0.986328125}, {"start": 690.03, "end": 693.27, "word": " بعدين", "probability": 0.434814453125}, {"start": 693.27, "end": 693.69, "word": " كملنا", "probability": 0.8836263020833334}, {"start": 693.69, "end": 693.93, "word": " اخر", "probability": 0.68994140625}, {"start": 693.93, "end": 694.11, "word": " اشي", "probability": 0.7588704427083334}, {"start": 694.11, "end": 694.47, "word": " المهم", "probability": 0.978271484375}, {"start": 694.47, "end": 695.03, "word": " نصل", "probability": 0.919921875}, {"start": 695.03, "end": 695.29, "word": " لهذه", "probability": 0.84326171875}, {"start": 695.29, "end": 695.37, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.65087890625}, {"start": 695.37, "end": 695.65, "word": " formula", "probability": 0.7763671875}, {"start": 695.65, "end": 697.23, "word": " اللى", "probability": 0.519775390625}, {"start": 697.23, "end": 697.45, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.91748046875}, {"start": 697.45, "end": 698.55, "word": " R", "probability": 0.8642578125}, {"start": 698.55, "end": 700.15, "word": " 1", "probability": 0.81005859375}, {"start": 700.15, "end": 701.27, "word": "-T", "probability": 0.845703125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 27, "seek": 71364, "start": 703.3, "end": 713.64, "text": "بس هذا ضرب يعني اشي سونا احنا R plus I ضربناها في one minus T minus I يعني هذه هيها okay", "tokens": [3555, 3794, 23758, 48812, 25513, 37495, 22653, 1975, 8592, 1829, 8608, 2407, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 497, 1804, 286, 48812, 25513, 8315, 11296, 8978, 472, 3175, 314, 3175, 286, 37495, 22653, 29538, 39896, 11296, 1392], "avg_logprob": -0.3858506886495484, "compression_ratio": 1.2358490566037736, "no_speech_prob": 4.76837158203125e-07, "words": [{"start": 703.3000000000001, "end": 703.94, "word": "بس", "probability": 0.500518798828125}, {"start": 703.94, "end": 704.12, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.5498046875}, {"start": 704.12, "end": 704.4, "word": " ضرب", "probability": 0.931396484375}, {"start": 704.4, "end": 704.6, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.907958984375}, {"start": 704.6, "end": 705.08, "word": " اشي", "probability": 0.5044759114583334}, {"start": 705.08, "end": 705.4, "word": " سونا", "probability": 0.7034505208333334}, {"start": 705.4, "end": 705.72, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 705.72, "end": 706.62, "word": " R", "probability": 0.3427734375}, {"start": 706.62, "end": 707.56, "word": " plus", "probability": 0.130859375}, {"start": 707.56, "end": 707.88, "word": " I", "probability": 0.953125}, {"start": 707.88, "end": 708.36, "word": " ضربناها", "probability": 0.9730224609375}, {"start": 708.36, "end": 708.48, "word": " في", "probability": 0.6767578125}, {"start": 708.48, "end": 708.62, "word": " one", "probability": 0.443359375}, {"start": 708.62, "end": 708.88, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.97412109375}, {"start": 708.88, "end": 709.14, "word": " T", "probability": 0.81005859375}, {"start": 709.14, "end": 710.5, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.42431640625}, {"start": 710.5, "end": 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percent", "probability": 0.97265625}, {"start": 1017.52, "end": 1018.58, "word": " طب", "probability": 0.974853515625}, {"start": 1018.58, "end": 1018.68, "word": " إذا", "probability": 0.791748046875}, {"start": 1018.68, "end": 1018.94, "word": " كانت", "probability": 0.7587890625}, {"start": 1018.94, "end": 1019.14, "word": " three", "probability": 0.8681640625}, {"start": 1019.14, "end": 1019.52, "word": " years", "probability": 0.94775390625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 39, "seek": 104629, "start": 1021.39, "end": 1046.29, "text": "ممكن أكتر increase يعني مثلا نقول 12% طيب إذا كانت semi-annual نص سنة نص سنة six months ممكن يكون five percent what we observe in this؟ إيش احنا بنلاحظ؟ كل ما زادت الفترة بزيد ال holding period كل ما زادت الفترة بزيد ال holding period كل ما كانت R increase كل ما كانت R increase تمام؟", "tokens": [2304, 43020, 5551, 4117, 2655, 2288, 3488, 37495, 22653, 50113, 15040, 8717, 39648, 2272, 4, 23032, 1829, 3555, 11933, 15730, 25961, 2655, 12909, 12, 969, 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"probability": 0.314208984375}, {"start": 1043.75, "end": 1043.91, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.94482421875}, {"start": 1043.91, "end": 1044.23, "word": " كانت", "probability": 0.91650390625}, {"start": 1044.23, "end": 1044.39, "word": " R", "probability": 0.89599609375}, {"start": 1044.39, "end": 1044.83, "word": " increase", "probability": 0.9267578125}, {"start": 1044.83, "end": 1046.29, "word": " تمام؟", "probability": 0.8787434895833334}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 40, "seek": 107417, "start": 1046.87, "end": 1074.17, "text": "عشان برضه تأكدوا كام مرة اذا في عندى انا ال inflation بتأثر بتخفض ال R عندى ال taxation بتخفض ال R عند ال holding period بتزيد ال R okay نشوف مثال طب فكركم ليش .. ليش why R", "tokens": [3615, 8592, 7649, 4724, 43042, 3224, 6055, 10721, 4117, 3215, 14407, 9122, 10943, 3714, 25720, 1975, 15730, 8978, 43242, 7578, 1975, 8315, 2423, 15860, 39894, 10721, 49115, 39894, 9778, 5172, 11242, 2423, 497, 43242, 7578, 2423, 47072, 39894, 9778, 5172, 11242, 2423, 497, 43242, 2423, 5061, 2896, 39894, 11622, 25708, 2423, 497, 1392, 8717, 8592, 38688, 50113, 6027, 23032, 3555, 6156, 37983, 24793, 32239, 8592, 4386, 32239, 8592, 983, 497], "avg_logprob": -0.1760563422256792, "compression_ratio": 1.5085714285714287, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1046.87, "end": 1047.41, "word": "عشان", "probability": 0.98388671875}, {"start": 1047.41, "end": 1047.91, "word": " برضه", "probability": 0.8681640625}, {"start": 1047.91, "end": 1048.31, "word": " تأكدوا", "probability": 0.93837890625}, {"start": 1048.31, "end": 1048.43, "word": " كام", "probability": 0.7076416015625}, {"start": 1048.43, "end": 1048.75, "word": " مرة", "probability": 0.91796875}, {"start": 1048.75, "end": 1049.23, "word": " اذا", "probability": 0.6734619140625}, {"start": 1049.23, "end": 1049.39, "word": " في", "probability": 0.6572265625}, {"start": 1049.39, "end": 1049.63, "word": " عندى", "probability": 0.6260986328125}, {"start": 1049.63, "end": 1049.77, "word": " انا", 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"probability": 0.9755859375}, {"start": 1055.31, "end": 1056.07, "word": " عند", "probability": 0.76806640625}, {"start": 1056.07, "end": 1056.21, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.93701171875}, {"start": 1056.21, "end": 1056.49, "word": " holding", "probability": 0.9228515625}, {"start": 1056.49, "end": 1056.99, "word": " period", "probability": 0.9853515625}, {"start": 1056.99, "end": 1057.95, "word": " بتزيد", "probability": 0.97705078125}, {"start": 1057.95, "end": 1058.41, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.958984375}, {"start": 1058.41, "end": 1058.59, "word": " R", "probability": 0.9697265625}, {"start": 1058.59, "end": 1059.69, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.37646484375}, {"start": 1059.69, "end": 1064.69, "word": " نشوف", "probability": 0.7848307291666666}, {"start": 1064.69, "end": 1065.07, "word": " مثال", "probability": 0.948486328125}, {"start": 1065.07, "end": 1070.43, "word": " طب", "probability": 0.88671875}, {"start": 1070.43, "end": 1071.13, "word": " فكركم", "probability": 0.92919921875}, {"start": 1071.13, "end": 1071.59, "word": " ليش", "probability": 0.943359375}, {"start": 1071.59, "end": 1072.89, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.396728515625}, {"start": 1072.89, "end": 1073.47, "word": " ليش", "probability": 0.957275390625}, {"start": 1073.47, "end": 1073.81, "word": " why", "probability": 0.5224609375}, {"start": 1073.81, "end": 1074.17, "word": " R", "probability": 0.865234375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 41, "seek": 109757, "start": 1075.55, "end": 1097.57, "text": "increase when the holding period increase؟ ليش ال R بتزيد لما ال holding period بتزيد؟ يعني تطلعوا على ال chart هنا تطلعوا على ال .. بدي أنا أسألكوا سؤال يعنى، هذا half year مظبوط؟ نص سنة كم كان ال rates؟", "tokens": [4647, 265, 651, 562, 264, 5061, 2896, 3488, 22807, 32239, 8592, 2423, 497, 39894, 11622, 25708, 5296, 15042, 2423, 5061, 2896, 39894, 11622, 25708, 22807, 37495, 22653, 6055, 9566, 1211, 3615, 14407, 15844, 2423, 6927, 34105, 6055, 9566, 1211, 3615, 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0.7893880208333334}, {"start": 1894.85, "end": 1894.95, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.732421875}, {"start": 1894.95, "end": 1895.15, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8880208333333334}, {"start": 1895.15, "end": 1895.25, "word": " في", "probability": 0.7822265625}, {"start": 1895.25, "end": 1895.45, "word": " صف", "probability": 0.94384765625}, {"start": 1895.45, "end": 1895.81, "word": " رابع", "probability": 0.7659505208333334}, {"start": 1895.81, "end": 1896.25, "word": " ابتدائي", "probability": 0.88955078125}, {"start": 1896.25, "end": 1896.87, "word": " قالولنا", "probability": 0.8972981770833334}, {"start": 1896.87, "end": 1897.79, "word": " القسم", "probability": 0.9658203125}, {"start": 1897.79, "end": 1898.23, "word": " أولى", "probability": 0.75537109375}, {"start": 1898.23, "end": 1898.41, "word": " صح", "probability": 0.93603515625}, {"start": 1898.41, "end": 1898.53, "word": " ولا", "probability": 0.951171875}, {"start": 1898.53, "end": 1898.75, "word": " لأ", "probability": 0.91552734375}, {"start": 1898.75, "end": 1900.09, "word": " فخلصي", "probability": 0.840673828125}, {"start": 1900.09, "end": 1900.39, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.68603515625}, {"start": 1900.39, "end": 1901.51, "word": " يلا", "probability": 0.5291748046875}, {"start": 1901.51, "end": 1902.43, "word": " بعدين", "probability": 0.723876953125}, {"start": 1902.43, "end": 1902.79, "word": " خلصي", "probability": 0.992919921875}, {"start": 1902.79, "end": 1903.07, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.92578125}, {"start": 1903.07, "end": 1903.75, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.705078125}, {"start": 1903.75, "end": 1904.15, "word": " حسب", "probability": 0.9912109375}, {"start": 1904.15, "end": 1904.27, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.9521484375}, {"start": 1904.27, "end": 1904.45, "word": " انت", "probability": 0.70751953125}, {"start": 1904.45, "end": 1905.13, "word": " بتعرفي", "probability": 0.9090576171875}, {"start": 1905.13, "end": 1905.71, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.529296875}, {"start": 1905.71, "end": 1906.61, "word": " المشكلة", "probability": 0.994873046875}, {"start": 1906.61, "end": 1907.77, "word": " في", "probability": 0.488037109375}, {"start": 1907.77, "end": 1907.99, "word": " حد", "probability": 0.98388671875}, {"start": 1907.99, "end": 1908.19, "word": " عنده", "probability": 0.948974609375}, {"start": 1908.19, "end": 1908.43, "word": " سؤال", "probability": 0.9900716145833334}, {"start": 1908.43, "end": 1908.49, "word": " يا", "probability": 0.95361328125}, {"start": 1908.49, "end": 1908.97, "word": " بنات؟", "probability": 0.9007568359375}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 1910.166375, "duration_after_vad": 1821.264374999996}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/NOjTZdQNZt4_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/NOjTZdQNZt4_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..70ca2218e108b0d00a571c39253d3210e6e9cce2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/NOjTZdQNZt4_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1752 @@
+1
+00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:27,700
+Okay بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم الأسبوع
+
+2
+00:00:27,700 --> 00:00:33,280
+الفات حكينا في ال .. ال bond market بالأسواق
+
+3
+00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:38,710
+السنداتو قسمنا أسواق السندات ال bond market ل
+
+4
+00:00:38,710 --> 00:00:46,710
+government bonds و corporate bonds اليوم هنحكي بال
+
+5
+00:00:46,710 --> 00:00:54,430
+equity securities هنحكي بالأسواق الأسهم او أسواق
+
+6
+00:00:54,430 --> 00:01:01,310
+الأسهم العادية و الممتازة فانتبهوا معنا ال equity
+
+7
+00:01:01,310 --> 00:01:05,010
+securitiesincludes the common stock and preferred
+
+8
+00:01:05,010 --> 00:01:11,610
+stock نحكي هنا عن equity equity
+
+9
+00:01:11,610 --> 00:01:19,130
+market includes common stock and preferred stock
+
+10
+00:01:19,130 --> 00:01:22,650
+بتشمل
+
+11
+00:01:22,650 --> 00:01:26,450
+نوعية من الأسهم الأسهم العادية و الأسهم الممتازة
+
+12
+00:01:26,450 --> 00:01:32,560
+نحكي نبدأ بال common stock نبدأ بالأسهم العاديةال
+
+13
+00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:38,060
+.. ال common stock is represent the ownership of
+
+14
+00:01:38,060 --> 00:01:43,560
+the investors in a particular company يعني بتمثل
+
+15
+00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:49,200
+ملكية المستثمرين أو المساهمين في الشركة
+
+16
+00:01:51,580 --> 00:01:53,280
+there are some characteristics on the common
+
+17
+00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:58,220
+stock, بعض الخصائص لل common stock and there are
+
+18
+00:01:58,220 --> 00:02:00,440
+some general characteristics for the common stock
+
+19
+00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,760
+في بعض الخصائص العامة لل common stock مثل ال
+
+20
+00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:09,770
+voting right زي ما انتوا بتعرفوا voting rightحق
+
+21
+00:02:09,770 --> 00:02:18,630
+التصويت for each stockholder has right to vote to
+
+22
+00:02:18,630 --> 00:02:22,190
+select the board of directors كل واحد من ال
+
+23
+00:02:22,190 --> 00:02:28,470
+shareholder أو ال stockholder له حق يصوت لاختيار
+
+24
+00:02:28,470 --> 00:02:32,070
+مجلس الإدارة يعني voting to select the board of
+
+25
+00:02:32,070 --> 00:02:36,610
+directors this is BOD stand for the board of
+
+26
+00:02:36,610 --> 00:02:41,410
+directorsthen the .. then the board of directors
+
+27
+00:02:41,410 --> 00:02:48,890
+select the .. the managers, business managers, the
+
+28
+00:02:48,890 --> 00:02:52,430
+managers are in charge to run the .. the daily
+
+29
+00:02:52,430 --> 00:02:55,590
+business activities و المناجر هم المسئولين عشان
+
+30
+00:02:55,590 --> 00:03:02,590
+ليديروا أعمال و الأنشطة اليومية للمنشئةال voting
+
+31
+00:03:02,590 --> 00:03:06,430
+rights هاي is general characteristics خصية عامة لل
+
+32
+00:03:06,430 --> 00:03:09,250
+.. لل common stocks however there are some stocks
+
+33
+00:03:09,250 --> 00:03:13,690
+has no voting rights في بعض الخصي .. I'm not
+
+34
+00:03:13,690 --> 00:03:16,090
+talking about the preferred stock there are some
+
+35
+00:03:16,090 --> 00:03:20,750
+common stock في بعض ال common stock they don't
+
+36
+00:03:20,750 --> 00:03:26,930
+have the .. the voting rights because some
+
+37
+00:03:26,930 --> 00:03:31,650
+companies issue some private issuesfor the common
+
+38
+00:03:31,650 --> 00:03:35,070
+stock يعني بعض المؤسسات بعض الشركات تصدر أسهم
+
+39
+00:03:35,070 --> 00:03:40,490
+عادية لا تتمتع بحق التصويت وهي في special
+
+40
+00:03:40,490 --> 00:03:43,850
+condition to issue this but generally بشكل عام
+
+41
+00:03:43,850 --> 00:03:47,050
+الأسهم العادية هي لها حق التصويت but in some cases
+
+42
+00:03:47,050 --> 00:03:50,090
+in some special cases they some companies have a
+
+43
+00:03:50,090 --> 00:03:53,590
+right to issue shares with no voting rightsيعني
+
+44
+00:03:53,590 --> 00:03:56,890
+بعض المؤسسة as you .. if you just read in the
+
+45
+00:03:56,890 --> 00:04:02,970
+footnotes you will read some corporates may issue
+
+46
+00:04:02,970 --> 00:04:06,790
+stock or common stock they don't have voting
+
+47
+00:04:06,790 --> 00:04:12,710
+rights ماعندهم مش حق التصويت there's some specific
+
+48
+00:04:12,710 --> 00:04:15,330
+characteristics for the common stocks في بعض
+
+49
+00:04:15,330 --> 00:04:19,170
+الخصائص المحددة لل common stocks for instance the
+
+50
+00:04:19,170 --> 00:04:23,360
+first one is the residual claimresidual claim
+
+51
+00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:30,220
+residual claim it means the common stockholder has
+
+52
+00:04:30,220 --> 00:04:35,440
+the last in line for the claim when the company go
+
+53
+00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:39,700
+to the bankruptcy يعني آخر ناس بيستطيعوا يحصلوا
+
+54
+00:04:39,700 --> 00:04:44,080
+على حقوقهم وعلى أموالهم هم أصحاب الأسهم العادية
+
+55
+00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:48,220
+فبسموها residual claim يعني آخر ناس بيحصلوا على
+
+56
+00:04:48,220 --> 00:04:53,760
+مستحقاتهم واستثماراتهم هم أصحاب الأسهم العادية
+
+57
+00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,000
+this is why they call them residual claim عشان هيك
+
+58
+00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,840
+بيسموهم residual residual يعني المتبقي يعني بعد ما
+
+59
+00:05:00,840 --> 00:05:04,120
+.. لما يصير bankruptcy bankruptcy معناها إفلاس
+
+60
+00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:09,790
+they rankthe investors according to their priority
+
+61
+00:05:09,790 --> 00:05:12,110
+and they apply some rules and regulations to rank
+
+62
+00:05:12,110 --> 00:05:16,470
+them يعني حسب القوانين لما الشركة تروح للإفلاس
+
+63
+00:05:16,470 --> 00:05:21,650
+بيروحوا بيرتبوا المستثمرين مثلا الديون الديون كانت
+
+64
+00:05:21,650 --> 00:05:25,210
+للحكومة إذا الديون كانت لشركات إذا كان ضريبة إذا
+
+65
+00:05:25,210 --> 00:05:28,650
+كان رواتب موظفين كلهم بيرتبوهم حسب الأولوية
+
+66
+00:05:28,650 --> 00:05:32,810
+والقانون هو اللي بيرتب الأولوية ال common stock
+
+67
+00:05:32,810 --> 00:05:37,360
+بتاخد the last priorityالcommerce للأسهم العادية
+
+68
+00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:42,320
+بتاخد أخر أخر إشي فبعد ما يصير bankruptcy يروح
+
+69
+00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,420
+يوزع كل واحد مستحقاته المتبقي هذا بيسموه residual
+
+70
+00:05:45,420 --> 00:05:51,080
+المتبقى بيعتول الأسهم العادية هذا إذا ضال متبقي
+
+71
+00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:57,280
+limited liability limited liability it means the
+
+72
+00:05:57,280 --> 00:06:01,080
+investors يعني التزامات محدودة it means the
+
+73
+00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:05,600
+investors they are liableto the amount of money
+
+74
+00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:10,100
+that invest in the company يعني هم فقط بيخسروا
+
+75
+00:06:10,100 --> 00:06:14,400
+الأموال اللي هم استثمروها في الشركة يعني مثلا يعني
+
+76
+00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:19,960
+مثلا إذا كان عندهم استثمار في استثمار يعني إذا كان
+
+77
+00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,260
+أقسم العادية بتاعتهم قيمتها عشرة مليون دولار
+
+78
+00:06:22,260 --> 00:06:26,660
+فالخسائر لا تتعدى العشرة مليون دولار okay هاي
+
+79
+00:06:26,660 --> 00:06:30,540
+بيسموها limited liability limited liabilities it
+
+80
+00:06:30,540 --> 00:06:36,290
+meanstheir liable is not exceed the amount that
+
+81
+00:06:36,290 --> 00:06:39,350
+they invest in the company يعني التزاماتهم لا
+
+82
+00:06:39,350 --> 00:06:43,550
+تتعدى الأموال اللي بيستثمروها مثلا إذا كان زي ما
+
+83
+00:06:43,550 --> 00:06:48,250
+حكينا عشرة مليون دولار مستثمرين أو اللي هم أسهم
+
+84
+00:06:48,250 --> 00:06:52,410
+عادية بهذا المبلغ وبالتالي الخسائر تبعتهم لا تتعدى
+
+85
+00:06:52,410 --> 00:06:57,930
+العشرة مليون دولار اللي هم مستثمرينها okay نحكي عن
+
+86
+00:06:57,930 --> 00:06:58,650
+ال preferred stock
+
+87
+00:07:01,390 --> 00:07:08,730
+البرفيات ال stock هي أسهم ممتازة okay هاي الأسهم
+
+88
+00:07:08,730 --> 00:07:13,290
+ممتازة بتختلف عن الأسهم العادية في اختلاف أول بال
+
+89
+00:07:13,290 --> 00:07:16,030
+bar value مثلا ال bar value اللي كم ال stock عادة
+
+90
+00:07:16,030 --> 00:07:19,070
+one dollar من ناحية المحاسبية البرفيات ال stock
+
+91
+00:07:19,070 --> 00:07:23,310
+ten dollar هذا فرق مش كتير جوهري نجعل ال ..
+
+92
+00:07:23,310 --> 00:07:26,490
+البرفيات ال stock لاحظين احنا مكتوب perpetuity
+
+93
+00:07:26,490 --> 00:07:33,160
+perpetuity يعني اباديةيعني اتم there is no
+
+94
+00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,940
+maturity date for the preferred stock مافيش
+
+95
+00:07:36,940 --> 00:07:41,920
+maturity dateمافيش تاريخ استحقاق لل .. لل
+
+96
+00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:46,360
+preferred stock يعني هيتم إصدارها بدون تواريخ
+
+97
+00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:51,960
+استحقاق and this part of preferred stock is a
+
+98
+00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:58,140
+hybrid what it means hybrid يعني hybrid يعني تجمع
+
+99
+00:07:58,140 --> 00:08:02,720
+أكثر من خاصيتين the .. the characteristics of the
+
+100
+00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,900
+common stock and the characteristics of bondيعني
+
+101
+00:08:05,900 --> 00:08:08,880
+بتشمل بين .. تجمع بين خاصيتين، خاصية ال common
+
+102
+00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:14,080
+stock و خاصية ال .. ال bond، السندات، so it have
+
+103
+00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:17,700
+or it .. it has the advantages of both، بتجمع
+
+104
+00:08:17,700 --> 00:08:23,200
+خصائص وميزيزيات التنتين، sometimes they call this
+
+105
+00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:31,540
+hybrid، hybrid يعني مختلطة، لها ميزة مختلطة، سموها
+
+106
+00:08:31,540 --> 00:08:31,880
+hybrid
+
+107
+00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:41,580
+Okay فبتجمع بين خصائص الأسهم العادية وبين خصائص
+
+108
+00:08:41,580 --> 00:08:48,520
+السندات طيب نشوف fixed dividends one of the
+
+109
+00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,660
+characteristics of fixed dividends عائثة بتقن this
+
+110
+00:08:52,660 --> 00:08:59,480
+is looks like bonds بتشبه ال bonds تشبه السندات
+
+111
+00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:06,540
+okayلأنه ال .. ال .. ال bond paid fixed income
+
+112
+00:09:06,540 --> 00:09:11,280
+تدفع fixed income priority over the .. over common
+
+113
+00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:15,480
+stock زي ما حكينا قبل شوية أنه لما بنعمل
+
+114
+00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:18,040
+priorities .. priorities أولوية when the .. when
+
+115
+00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,700
+the company go to bankruptcySo according to
+
+116
+00:09:21,700 --> 00:09:26,580
+regulations they rank the investors or the
+
+117
+00:09:26,580 --> 00:09:30,760
+securities according to the priority برتبوهم حسب
+
+118
+00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:35,340
+ال priority لما احنا بندفع لل investors لما يصير
+
+119
+00:09:35,340 --> 00:09:39,320
+في عندنا إفلاس وبالتالي هان لما احنا بنرتبهم لو
+
+120
+00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:43,560
+عملنا واحد اتنين تلاتة اربعة اخر اشي بيجي ال
+
+121
+00:09:43,560 --> 00:09:47,960
+common stock and before the common stock before
+
+122
+00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:48,580
+the preferred stock
+
+123
+00:09:51,550 --> 00:09:54,050
+الى حق الأولوية before they prepare the stock
+
+124
+00:09:54,050 --> 00:09:58,550
+عندنا ال bond اذا احنا بنرجع before the bonds ال
+
+125
+00:09:58,550 --> 00:10:01,190
+taxation ضريبة الحكومة before the taxation
+
+126
+00:10:01,190 --> 00:10:05,910
+salaries employees salaries and so on okay so from
+
+127
+00:10:05,910 --> 00:10:09,450
+government to government or from country to
+
+128
+00:10:09,450 --> 00:10:12,710
+country there is some little changes in the
+
+129
+00:10:12,710 --> 00:10:16,910
+priority over the securities يعني حسب كل دولة
+
+130
+00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,940
+بحددوا إيش ال priorities الأولويات لكن in general
+
+131
+00:10:21,940 --> 00:10:26,620
+بشكل عام بيكون ال preferred stock is before the
+
+132
+00:10:26,620 --> 00:10:31,300
+common stock ده ما يصير فيه عندنا سداد للاموال
+
+133
+00:10:31,300 --> 00:10:39,920
+المستثمرين tax treatment ال tax treatment the
+
+134
+00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,580
+dividends which is looks like the common stock
+
+135
+00:10:42,580 --> 00:10:45,440
+treatment تشبه ال common stock treatment
+
+136
+00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:57,820
+المستخدمين في السوق المفضل يدفعون تاكس على الدفعات
+
+137
+00:10:57,820 --> 00:11:06,960
+وهو يسمى إذا قمت بفتح صفحة صفحة
+
+138
+00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:14,740
+43 فالسوق العام ليس مستخدم للدفع تاكس ما يعنيه
+
+139
+00:11:14,740 --> 00:11:20,680
+تاكس لا تاكس مستخدمin the bonds the tax is
+
+140
+00:11:20,680 --> 00:11:25,760
+deducted from the expenses however in the
+
+141
+00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:29,380
+preferred stock the tax is not deducted from the
+
+142
+00:11:29,380 --> 00:11:35,460
+expenses يعني بحالة السندات الفائدة
+
+143
+00:11:35,460 --> 00:11:40,260
+يتم طرحها من المصاريف وبالتالي بيصير عندنا إعفاء
+
+144
+00:11:40,260 --> 00:11:46,750
+ضريبي لكن بالأسهم الممتازةال dividends بتاعة ال
+
+145
+00:11:46,750 --> 00:11:50,490
+preferred stock لا يتم اختصامها او قطعها من
+
+146
+00:11:50,490 --> 00:11:53,690
+المصاريف وبالتالي لا تتمتع بوفرة ضربية and this is
+
+147
+00:11:53,690 --> 00:11:56,730
+disadvantage of the preferred stock وهذه واحدة من
+
+148
+00:11:56,730 --> 00:12:02,310
+العيوب بتاعة ال preferred stock الأسهم ممتازة okay
+
+149
+00:12:04,930 --> 00:12:09,870
+بالنسبة للسندات regarding the tax treatment the
+
+150
+00:12:09,870 --> 00:12:13,230
+interest payment is deducted from tax .. from
+
+151
+00:12:13,230 --> 00:12:19,210
+expenses يعني الفائدة يتم اختطاعها من المصاريف and
+
+152
+00:12:19,210 --> 00:12:22,410
+so we have tax exempted وبالتالي بنحصل على إفاء
+
+153
+00:12:22,410 --> 00:12:27,440
+دريبةلكن for the preferred stock it is not tax
+
+154
+00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:31,720
+deducted from the expenses هي لا يتم اختطاعها من
+
+155
+00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:36,740
+المصاريف and so we cannot have the tax exempted
+
+156
+00:12:36,740 --> 00:12:41,740
+ومش هيتمتع في إعفاء ضريبي فهذه الفروقات بين ال
+
+157
+00:12:41,740 --> 00:12:48,120
+preferred stock and the common stocks okay
+
+158
+00:12:52,340 --> 00:12:56,060
+American depository receipts هاي ما الناس نحكي
+
+159
+00:12:56,060 --> 00:13:04,400
+فيها أخر واحدة stock market indexes نحكي على أسواق
+
+160
+00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:10,120
+المؤشرات أسواق الأسهم stock market indexes some
+
+161
+00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:13,420
+people they call stock market indices بعض الناس
+
+162
+00:13:13,420 --> 00:13:17,420
+بالفظها indices سواء كانت indices ولا indices are
+
+163
+00:13:17,420 --> 00:13:23,880
+the same مؤشرات أسواق الأسهملو انتوا .. اكتبوا
+
+164
+00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:29,520
+معناها .. لو انتوا مثلا فاتحتوا مثلا الجزيرة
+
+165
+00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:36,720
+الاقتصادية او العربية او CNBC هتيجي اخر اليوم حصاد
+
+166
+00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:42,130
+اقتصادي بيجي بيحكي مثلا ال Dow Jonesمثلا انخفض او
+
+167
+00:13:42,130 --> 00:13:46,550
+ارتفع بيجي بيحكي ال 4100 ارتفع او انخفض بيجي بيحكي
+
+168
+00:13:46,550 --> 00:13:51,470
+S&P 500 ارتفع او انخفض بيحكي ال CAC 40 انخفض او
+
+169
+00:13:51,470 --> 00:13:54,690
+ارتفع هدول مش شركات هدول عبارة عن مؤشرات أسباب
+
+170
+00:13:54,690 --> 00:13:57,370
+مالية يعني مثلا لو أجيب نحكي على New York Stock
+
+171
+00:13:57,370 --> 00:14:03,290
+Exchange New York Stock Exchange New York Stock
+
+172
+00:14:03,290 --> 00:14:08,810
+Exchange هذا سوق بدوم ألاف الشركاتفلمّا بنعمل
+
+173
+00:14:08,810 --> 00:14:13,770
+تقرير عن أداء السوق، مانفعش نعمل تقرير عن كل شركة
+
+174
+00:14:13,770 --> 00:14:19,610
+فال financial market committee اللي هو لجنة
+
+175
+00:14:19,610 --> 00:14:23,970
+الأسواق المالية قررت أنه ت select particular
+
+176
+00:14:23,970 --> 00:14:29,230
+companies based on a particular criteriato select
+
+177
+00:14:29,230 --> 00:14:31,910
+particular companies based on the particular
+
+178
+00:14:31,910 --> 00:14:35,570
+criteria to be in the index يعني مثلا لو أنا عندى
+
+179
+00:14:35,570 --> 00:14:38,430
+3000 شركة مثلا موجودة بال New York Stock Exchange
+
+180
+00:14:39,590 --> 00:14:44,730
+They select for instance 500 companies from the
+
+181
+00:14:44,730 --> 00:14:48,630
+3000 based on a particular criteria to represent
+
+182
+00:14:48,630 --> 00:14:52,370
+the financial market يعني بيختاروا أفضل مثلا 500
+
+183
+00:14:52,370 --> 00:14:54,610
+شركة حسب market capitalization market
+
+184
+00:14:54,610 --> 00:14:59,730
+capitalization يعني حجم القيمة السوقية للشركة بحيث
+
+185
+00:14:59,730 --> 00:15:02,790
+أن هدول بيمثلوا السوق فبدل ما هم يقيصوا السوق من
+
+186
+00:15:02,790 --> 00:15:06,890
+خلال 3000 أو 4000 شركة فبيقيصوا السوق من قبل أفضل
+
+187
+00:15:06,890 --> 00:15:12,410
+500 شركة في السوقأو أكبر 500 شركة او أكبر 500 شركة
+
+188
+00:15:12,410 --> 00:15:16,670
+حسب القيمة السوقية فهم بيختاروا من ال 3000 هدول
+
+189
+00:15:16,670 --> 00:15:22,150
+بيختارونهم 500 شركة مثلا في ال Fotsi 100 اللي هو
+
+190
+00:15:22,150 --> 00:15:25,670
+جاي من London Stock Exchange London Stock Exchange
+
+191
+00:15:25,670 --> 00:15:30,910
+LSA هذا سوق لندن السوق لندن في 6000 و 10000 شركة
+
+192
+00:15:30,910 --> 00:15:38,520
+يعتبر هذا السوق من بمثل تقريباخمسة و عشرين في
+
+193
+00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:42,980
+المية من قيمة السوقية للعالم، تمام؟ سوق لندن، سوق
+
+194
+00:15:42,980 --> 00:15:49,060
+لندن هال .. ألاف الشركات هدول بدل ما احنا نروح
+
+195
+00:15:49,060 --> 00:15:53,600
+نمثل السوق كله بألاف الشركات فبروح بختاروا أفضل
+
+196
+00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:58,990
+لئة شركة وبالتالي سموه ال Fotsi 100فوتي one
+
+197
+00:15:58,990 --> 00:16:01,470
+hundred فوتي one hundred اللي هو financial time
+
+198
+00:16:01,470 --> 00:16:05,070
+stock exchange for one hundred companies فهم
+
+199
+00:16:05,070 --> 00:16:08,010
+بيروحوا بيشوفوا الخمس ألاف شركة بيختاروا أفضل مئة
+
+200
+00:16:08,010 --> 00:16:10,910
+شركة حسب القيمة السوقية و بيروحوا بيحكوا بيصيروا
+
+201
+00:16:10,910 --> 00:16:14,590
+يحكوا فقط على الفوتي one hundred إذا مثلا الفوتي
+
+202
+00:16:14,590 --> 00:16:18,890
+one hundred is includes the best one hundred
+
+203
+00:16:18,890 --> 00:16:22,130
+companies in the London Stock Exchange يعني بيضم
+
+204
+00:16:22,130 --> 00:16:26,250
+أفضل مئة شركة في سوق لندنإذا احنا بنحكي مثلا على
+
+205
+00:16:26,250 --> 00:16:30,930
+ال .. أمثلة كتير، في عندنا ال KAC 40 و في عندنا
+
+206
+00:16:30,930 --> 00:16:36,850
+Tokyo، سوق Tokyo، we have S&P 500، هذا سوق
+
+207
+00:16:36,850 --> 00:16:41,330
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، في عندنا استنبول،
+
+208
+00:16:41,330 --> 00:16:44,290
+استنبول، في عندنا استنبول كمان، عندهم تقريبا
+
+209
+00:16:44,290 --> 00:16:51,470
+مؤشرهم على معتقد بضم 40حوالي أربعين شركة حسب كل ال
+
+210
+00:16:51,470 --> 00:16:53,930
+regulations عندنا في سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية
+
+211
+00:16:53,930 --> 00:16:57,810
+لفترة متأخرة كان بيضم هذا السوق عشر شركات الآن
+
+212
+00:16:57,810 --> 00:17:01,510
+طبعا بيضم أكتر من عشر شركات كمؤشر as a index
+
+213
+00:17:06,510 --> 00:17:09,430
+الشركات الكبيرة نسميها في .. طبعا احنا بنحكي هنا
+
+214
+00:17:09,430 --> 00:17:13,490
+عن Dow Jones الشركات الكبيرة بيسموها blue chip ال
+
+215
+00:17:13,490 --> 00:17:17,050
+blue chip company blue chip اللي هو القطعة الزرقاء
+
+216
+00:17:17,050 --> 00:17:22,370
+ايه اجا القطعة الزرقاء ال blue chip اجت من طبعا
+
+217
+00:17:22,370 --> 00:17:25,570
+اجت من الأسف الشديد اجت من ألعاب ال gambling
+
+218
+00:17:28,210 --> 00:17:31,470
+المقامرة فالقطع الزرقاء هذه تعتبر أغلى قطعة
+
+219
+00:17:31,470 --> 00:17:34,370
+واحتمالات النجاح فيها احتمالات عالية جدا فهذه
+
+220
+00:17:34,370 --> 00:17:38,550
+بيسموها Plot Chip ف ال companies with a plot chip
+
+221
+00:17:38,550 --> 00:17:42,410
+يعني تكون هي plot chip it is should be considered
+
+222
+00:17:42,410 --> 00:17:45,910
+as one of the index member يعني تعتبر واحدة من
+
+223
+00:17:45,910 --> 00:17:53,230
+الشركات الممكن أن تكون في الشركات المساهمة في مؤشر
+
+224
+00:17:53,230 --> 00:17:59,160
+السوقthe question is how we can calculate the
+
+225
+00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:08,120
+index كيف احنا ممكن .. blue chip هي لما نيجي نقول
+
+226
+00:18:08,120 --> 00:18:14,060
+هاي البنات هدول في عندنا بنات متفوقات و في بنات
+
+227
+00:18:14,060 --> 00:18:18,720
+يعني متوسطات و في بنات عادية إذا احنا بنختار the
+
+228
+00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,700
+best ten students هدول بيسموهم بيسميهم the blue
+
+229
+00:18:22,700 --> 00:18:27,810
+chip studentإيش يعني blue chip student؟ يعني أفضل
+
+230
+00:18:27,810 --> 00:18:31,430
+الطلاب دول بيسموه blue chip فهذا مصطلح في ال
+
+231
+00:18:31,430 --> 00:18:34,810
+financial markets ال blue chip it means the best
+
+232
+00:18:34,810 --> 00:18:42,250
+okay فليش سموها blue chip لأنه في صلاة القمار في
+
+233
+00:18:42,250 --> 00:18:45,010
+عندنا قطعة .. قطعة لونها أصفر، قطعة لونها أحمر،
+
+234
+00:18:45,010 --> 00:18:48,810
+قطعة لونها أسود، قطعة لونها أزرق، فأغلى قطعة هي
+
+235
+00:18:48,810 --> 00:18:53,250
+القطعة الزرقاءو القطعة الزرقاء نفسها ال blue chip
+
+236
+00:18:53,250 --> 00:18:57,730
+بتكون the most expensive and the most probable to
+
+237
+00:18:57,730 --> 00:19:03,430
+win واحتماليات الربح تبقى هتكون أعلى comparing
+
+238
+00:19:03,430 --> 00:19:07,610
+or relative to the other chips مقارنة مع القطع
+
+239
+00:19:07,610 --> 00:19:11,090
+الأخرى
+
+240
+00:19:11,090 --> 00:19:17,220
+يعني لو أجينا احنا هقولنا the best studentare more
+
+241
+00:19:17,220 --> 00:19:20,660
+probable to finish their graduate on this year
+
+242
+00:19:20,660 --> 00:19:27,160
+يعني أكتر احتمال أن هم يخلصوا السنة هذه أو to pass
+
+243
+00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:32,100
+the exam easily أو يخلصوا الامتحان تبعهم بسهولة
+
+244
+00:19:32,100 --> 00:19:38,220
+فهذا المصطلح أتي من هنا اسمه blue chip okay the
+
+245
+00:19:38,220 --> 00:19:42,040
+question is how we can calculate or estimate the
+
+246
+00:19:45,570 --> 00:19:49,990
+the index كيف احنا ممكن نختار ال index there is
+
+247
+00:19:49,990 --> 00:19:53,130
+two different ways or two different methods to
+
+248
+00:19:53,130 --> 00:19:56,410
+calculate the index فينا طريقتين the first one is
+
+249
+00:19:56,410 --> 00:19:59,930
+the price weighted in average and the second is
+
+250
+00:19:59,930 --> 00:20:05,110
+the average the market value weighted index so the
+
+251
+00:20:05,110 --> 00:20:07,890
+first one is the price the second one is the
+
+252
+00:20:07,890 --> 00:20:14,090
+markets the market valueSo we have two different
+
+253
+00:20:14,090 --> 00:20:20,710
+types of .. of estimating the .. the index يعني زي
+
+254
+00:20:20,710 --> 00:20:25,730
+ما أنتوا بتسمعوا مثلا بالجزيرة أو بال CNBC أو in
+
+255
+00:20:25,730 --> 00:20:30,030
+CNN the index .. the market index for instance for
+
+256
+00:20:30,030 --> 00:20:36,670
+the FTSE 100 is increased by five pointsif we look
+
+257
+00:20:36,670 --> 00:20:40,450
+at the .. if you look at the google if you open
+
+258
+00:20:40,450 --> 00:20:44,110
+google just write the FTSE 100 or write Dow Jones
+
+259
+00:20:44,110 --> 00:20:49,990
+or S&P 500 so these indexes or indices represent a
+
+260
+00:20:49,990 --> 00:20:53,630
+particular financial markets it may increase by
+
+261
+00:20:53,630 --> 00:20:57,110
+points or decrease by points هي بتنخفض و بترتفع
+
+262
+00:20:57,110 --> 00:21:06,550
+حسب النقاط Dow Jones this is ..Dow Jones is the
+
+263
+00:21:06,550 --> 00:21:12,530
+first person back to 19s the early of 19s around
+
+264
+00:21:12,530 --> 00:21:18,650
+1905 سنة الف سمية و خمسة he suggest a theory which
+
+265
+00:21:18,650 --> 00:21:23,010
+is called Dow theoryاختراح نظرية سماها DAO theory
+
+266
+00:21:23,010 --> 00:21:29,690
+نظرية DAO and this DAO theory depends on the
+
+267
+00:21:29,690 --> 00:21:35,390
+assumption that the financial market is moved by
+
+268
+00:21:35,390 --> 00:21:40,350
+the behavioral financeيعني بتحركها ال behavioral
+
+269
+00:21:40,350 --> 00:21:43,970
+finance اللي هو السلوك المالي او the behavior of
+
+270
+00:21:43,970 --> 00:21:50,050
+investors او سلوك المستثمرين and this Dao هذا
+
+271
+00:21:50,050 --> 00:21:56,900
+الشخص اسمه Daohe was the first one to estimate the
+
+272
+00:21:56,900 --> 00:22:01,100
+market index هو كان أول واحد بيعمل estimation يعني
+
+273
+00:22:01,100 --> 00:22:05,060
+calculate the market index هو مؤشر السوق and after
+
+274
+00:22:05,060 --> 00:22:07,560
+that there are some other people they try to
+
+275
+00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:12,280
+update and to amend the calculations of .. of the
+
+276
+00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:17,640
+index حاولوا ي .. يغيروا في ال calculations لل ..
+
+277
+00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:23,080
+لل indexلأ just they .. they have little change
+
+278
+00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:27,640
+but the first one to coin the .. the concept of
+
+279
+00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:34,720
+index was Dow أول واحد أوجد فكرة ال index أو حسب
+
+280
+00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:39,640
+ال .. ال index هو .. هو Dow Jones في .. في نظرية
+
+281
+00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:45,560
+Dow سماها Dow theory okay this is why okay
+
+282
+00:22:48,590 --> 00:22:51,010
+let's see for instance how we calculate the ..
+
+283
+00:22:51,010 --> 00:22:57,930
+based on the price weighted in
+
+284
+00:22:57,930 --> 00:23:02,310
+price weighted .. ال price weighted يعني حسب السعر
+
+285
+00:23:02,310 --> 00:23:09,970
+المؤجح if we have two stock إذا كان عندي two
+
+286
+00:23:09,970 --> 00:23:11,630
+stocks سهمين
+
+287
+00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:21,140
+stock A and stock B يعني إذا كان ال index if the
+
+288
+00:23:21,140 --> 00:23:24,900
+index includes only two stocks يعني إذا بس بيشمل
+
+289
+00:23:24,900 --> 00:23:29,540
+سهمين A and B we should know the price of A and
+
+290
+00:23:29,540 --> 00:23:34,440
+the price of B لازم نعرف سعر A وسعر B according to
+
+291
+00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:38,820
+your example for instance the price of A is 25$
+
+292
+00:23:38,820 --> 00:23:45,300
+and the price of B is 100$this is from for
+
+293
+00:23:45,300 --> 00:23:47,500
+instance for today or for from the previous day
+
+294
+00:23:47,500 --> 00:23:52,340
+now we observe the changes in the price باللاحظ
+
+295
+00:23:52,340 --> 00:23:55,420
+التغير في الأسعار for instance if this is for
+
+296
+00:23:55,420 --> 00:24:00,700
+today today is zero and if we observe for tomorrow
+
+297
+00:24:01,710 --> 00:24:06,570
+and tomorrow is coming و بكرا إجا and the price is
+
+298
+00:24:06,570 --> 00:24:13,030
+like this 30 for A and 90 for B it means stock A
+
+299
+00:24:13,030 --> 00:24:19,110
+increased by 5 and stock B decreased by 90 if we
+
+300
+00:24:19,110 --> 00:24:23,610
+calculate the sum of this 125 if we calculate the
+
+301
+00:24:23,610 --> 00:24:29,830
+sum of this is 130 what you observe tomorrowwhen
+
+302
+00:24:29,830 --> 00:24:34,390
+tomorrow is coming the price is increased by five
+
+303
+00:24:34,390 --> 00:24:42,550
+dollar 120 okay sorry for this so the the price is
+
+304
+00:24:42,550 --> 00:24:48,210
+decreased by five dollar السعر انخفض بكم five
+
+305
+00:24:48,210 --> 00:24:51,170
+dollar as a percentage اذا احنا بنحسبه على
+
+306
+00:24:51,170 --> 00:24:56,630
+percentage so fivedivided by the original price
+
+307
+00:24:56,630 --> 00:25:01,290
+السعر الرئيسي اللي هو مية و خمسة و عشرين فبطلع
+
+308
+00:25:01,290 --> 00:25:05,650
+minus four percent you
+
+309
+00:25:05,650 --> 00:25:09,370
+just only observe the changes in the prices okay
+
+310
+00:25:09,370 --> 00:25:16,910
+so the difference from tomorrowregarding today is
+
+311
+00:25:16,910 --> 00:25:20,490
+the price decreased by minus five minus five is
+
+312
+00:25:20,490 --> 00:25:23,830
+divided by the original price which which was one
+
+313
+00:25:23,830 --> 00:25:28,350
+to five so minus five divided by one to five minus
+
+314
+00:25:28,350 --> 00:25:31,750
+four percent it means when you listen to الجزيرة
+
+315
+00:25:31,750 --> 00:25:35,930
+or you listen for CNBC they are saying that the
+
+316
+00:25:35,930 --> 00:25:40,890
+market index is decreased by four percent يعني
+
+317
+00:25:40,890 --> 00:25:48,370
+المؤشر انخفض four percentلكن هذا ليس بسيط كما
+
+318
+00:25:48,370 --> 00:25:53,930
+تعتقدين لأن هناك تطورات في الطريق أو في الأسلوب
+
+319
+00:25:53,930 --> 00:25:57,630
+كيف يقوموا بتخصيص اتجارات السوق ولكن في هذا
+
+320
+00:25:57,630 --> 00:26:01,610
+المستقبل أو في هذه القصة فقط لدينا تقريب كيف
+
+321
+00:26:01,610 --> 00:26:06,460
+يقوموا بتخصيص اتجارات السوقما تفكروش أنه هذا هو ال
+
+322
+00:26:06,460 --> 00:26:10,100
+.. هيك الطريقة النهائية يعني هذي the first time
+
+323
+00:26:10,100 --> 00:26:13,240
+they calculate أول مرة حسبوها بهذه الطريقة هذي
+
+324
+00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:18,940
+then they develop these calculations طوروا فيها ..
+
+325
+00:26:18,940 --> 00:26:21,560
+بقى this is the .. the main idea of how calculate
+
+326
+00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,420
+the market indices ما هو اسمه ال price weight is
+
+327
+00:26:24,420 --> 00:26:28,160
+different لأنه يساعد كل دمال الشركة بتطلع ال price
+
+328
+00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:32,520
+weight is because the index is built on the price
+
+329
+00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:39,600
+لأن طريقة الحسبة على السعر and not considering the
+
+330
+00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,260
+number of shares وماعتمدتش على number of shares
+
+331
+00:26:43,260 --> 00:26:48,280
+على عدد الأسهم just only focus on the price بس ركز
+
+332
+00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:53,480
+على ال price this
+
+333
+00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:57,980
+is the portfolio if it includes two stocks and if
+
+334
+00:26:57,980 --> 00:27:01,160
+the market includes two stocks and if we calculate
+
+335
+00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,710
+the indexin the same or in the similar way اذا
+
+336
+00:27:05,710 --> 00:27:11,210
+احنا حابين نحسب ال index بال similar way مؤشر look
+
+337
+00:27:11,210 --> 00:27:18,610
+at here we here we we use two stocks so we ignore
+
+338
+00:27:18,610 --> 00:27:22,710
+the average احنا جهلنا ال average so we amend the
+
+339
+00:27:22,710 --> 00:27:25,470
+average by using the index بس انه احنا بنعمل
+
+340
+00:27:25,470 --> 00:27:30,070
+amending بنعمل amending يعني يعني كأنه احنا قلنا
+
+341
+00:27:30,070 --> 00:27:34,550
+قداش انا بعت الطلابالفصل هذا العلامات الطلاب جمعنا
+
+342
+00:27:34,550 --> 00:27:40,460
+كل العلامات قلنا العلامات الفينطيب و الفاصل الماضي
+
+343
+00:27:40,460 --> 00:27:43,680
+كام؟ الف وتسعمية إذا فيه زيادة مية هاي الطريقة
+
+344
+00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,320
+الطريقة التانية لأ إحنا بنحسب .. بنقول قداش ال
+
+345
+00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:50,620
+average تبع الطلاب الفاصل الفاتر و كام ال average
+
+346
+00:27:50,620 --> 00:27:54,080
+تبع الطلاب الفاصل التاني وبالتالي لازم إحنا ن .. ن
+
+347
+00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:58,260
+.. نحسب خمسة و عشرين twenty five plus one hundred
+
+348
+00:27:58,260 --> 00:28:01,540
+divided by two why two because we only have two
+
+349
+00:28:01,540 --> 00:28:04,880
+companiesنستطيع أن نقلها إلى 3 إذا كان لدينا ثلاث
+
+350
+00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:10,740
+شركات، لذلك نستطيع أن نقلها إلى N باستخدام N كمية
+
+351
+00:28:10,740 --> 00:28:14,660
+الشركات نقلها
+
+352
+00:28:14,660 --> 00:28:22,540
+إلى 25 مرة و نقلها
+
+353
+00:28:22,540 --> 00:28:29,220
+إلى 2 مرة و نقلها إلى 2 مرةSo one two five divided
+
+354
+00:28:29,220 --> 00:28:34,180
+by two it is sixty two point five and this is
+
+355
+00:28:34,180 --> 00:28:39,720
+sixty why we divided by two because we only have
+
+356
+00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,000
+two companies if we have three we divided by three
+
+357
+00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:48,140
+if we have thirty we divided by thirty عدد الشركات
+
+358
+00:28:48,140 --> 00:28:51,060
+مش الأسهم not the number of shares be careful
+
+359
+00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:59,940
+yes two companies or two stocks to simplify it
+
+360
+00:28:59,940 --> 00:29:03,720
+يعني يا أما شركتين يا أما سهمين بس okay so we
+
+361
+00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,580
+ignoring the number of shares so far نتجاهل عدد
+
+362
+00:29:06,580 --> 00:29:10,320
+الأسهم لحد اللحظة هذه okay very simple
+
+363
+00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:17,800
+calculations طيب هلأ ستين minus sixty two point
+
+364
+00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:28,930
+five which is-2.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5
+
+365
+00:29:28,930 --> 00:29:34,970
+مقارنة بالتغيير
+
+366
+00:29:34,970 --> 00:29:39,010
+الأصلي
+
+367
+00:29:39,010 --> 00:29:41,750
+62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير
+
+368
+00:29:41,750 --> 00:29:41,910
+الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة
+
+369
+00:29:41,910 --> 00:29:42,110
+62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير
+
+370
+00:29:42,110 --> 00:29:43,410
+الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة
+
+371
+00:29:43,410 --> 00:29:50,370
+بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة
+
+372
+00:29:50,370 --> 00:29:51,870
+بالتغيير الأصل
+
+373
+00:29:55,300 --> 00:29:58,840
+هو يجب أن يكوين السعر ليس السعر بل السعر الوضعي
+
+374
+00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:04,020
+هذا
+
+375
+00:30:04,020 --> 00:30:10,180
+هو السعر الوضعي هذه الطريقة هي السعر الوضعي لذا
+
+376
+00:30:10,180 --> 00:30:15,840
+يمكنك تخطيط هذا على الميزانية تخطيطات بسيطة أو
+
+377
+00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:22,700
+تخطيطات بسيطة أو تخطيطات بسيطة اذا أعطيك مثلا30
+
+378
+00:30:22,700 --> 00:30:26,900
+شركات وانت فقط تقيمها بال 30 و ترى التغيير في
+
+379
+00:30:26,900 --> 00:30:34,500
+السعر على هذا الهدف على سبيل المثال S&P500 كما
+
+380
+00:30:34,500 --> 00:30:41,040
+أشرحت في الأول 5-10 دقيقة تحتوي على أكبر من 500
+
+381
+00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:45,760
+شركات في New York Stock ExchangeOkay the largest
+
+382
+00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,080
+the largest based on the market capitalization
+
+383
+00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,980
+what it means market capitalization القيمة السوقية
+
+384
+00:30:51,980 --> 00:30:56,340
+يعني حسب القيمة السوقية and the market
+
+385
+00:30:56,340 --> 00:30:58,880
+capitalization is available for the every
+
+386
+00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,760
+investors كل investor ممكن يحصل على market
+
+387
+00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:07,290
+capitalization and to calculate the indexلكن ال S
+
+388
+00:31:07,290 --> 00:31:14,090
+&B ليس قيمة مثل داو جونز، داو جونز قيمة حسب القيمة
+
+389
+00:31:14,090 --> 00:31:19,890
+ولكن ال S&B كما قلت قبل أننا لدينا اشياء مختلفة من
+
+390
+00:31:19,890 --> 00:31:24,610
+القيمة، الأول هو قيمة القيمة والثاني هو قيمة السوق
+
+391
+00:31:26,390 --> 00:31:29,710
+So the market value weighted طريقة احتساب ال value
+
+392
+00:31:29,710 --> 00:31:32,430
+weighted is little different than the price
+
+393
+00:31:32,430 --> 00:31:35,830
+weighted يعني بتختلف في شيء بسيط it just consider
+
+394
+00:31:35,830 --> 00:31:38,910
+the number of shares يعني بس بتاخد بعين الاعتبار
+
+395
+00:31:38,910 --> 00:31:44,050
+عدد الأسهم okay
+
+396
+00:31:44,050 --> 00:31:47,370
+the
+
+397
+00:31:47,370 --> 00:31:55,950
+market weighted go back to the go back
+
+398
+00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:04,320
+نعود لبيج 45
+
+399
+00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:09,060
+نعود
+
+400
+00:32:09,060 --> 00:32:16,280
+لبيج 45 تعود تعود عندما تذهب إلى المنزل تعود لبيج
+
+401
+00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:22,240
+45 في سبيل المثال 2.2 ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة
+
+402
+00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:22,300
+ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة
+
+403
+00:32:27,310 --> 00:32:31,710
+على سبيل المثال 2.2 هو السعر الوزراء الذي أشرحته
+
+404
+00:32:31,710 --> 00:32:39,630
+لك بنفسك تحاول تقرأ سبيل 2.3 وهو قيمة وزراء فقط
+
+405
+00:32:39,630 --> 00:32:44,590
+تضيف رقم الشركات وقرأها إذا لم تفهم في المجلس
+
+406
+00:32:44,590 --> 00:32:52,810
+القادم سأشرحك معلومات أكتر عن هذا قد
+
+407
+00:32:52,810 --> 00:32:59,000
+يكون لديك مشكلة في فهم قيمة السوقand this problem
+
+408
+00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:03,260
+may raise up because of the stock split you know
+
+409
+00:33:03,260 --> 00:33:07,240
+what it means stock split stock split stock split
+
+410
+00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:11,280
+اللي هو التوزيع أو بيسموها تجزئة السهم سمعتوا في
+
+411
+00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:15,760
+تجزئة السهم بالمحاسبة in accounting stock splits
+
+412
+00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:20,820
+بال accounting أو بال management stock splits ان
+
+413
+00:33:20,820 --> 00:33:23,700
+احنا ممكن يكون ال investors have one hundred
+
+414
+00:33:23,700 --> 00:33:28,690
+sharesand when the company do stock splits it
+
+415
+00:33:28,690 --> 00:33:35,850
+becomes like two hundreds stock splits اللي
+
+416
+00:33:35,850 --> 00:33:41,390
+هو تجديئة السهم الشركات بتلجأ لتجديئة السهم في بعض
+
+417
+00:33:41,390 --> 00:33:44,990
+الحالات ممكن يكون في زيادة في رأس المال عندهم so
+
+418
+00:33:44,990 --> 00:33:49,170
+they do stock splits بيعمل تجديئة للسهم so one
+
+419
+00:33:49,170 --> 00:33:55,670
+stock mayequal two stocks ممكن يساوي سهمين when
+
+420
+00:33:55,670 --> 00:33:58,810
+the company do stock splits لما الشركة تعمل stock
+
+421
+00:33:58,810 --> 00:34:02,850
+splits if you hold one hundred shares it becomes
+
+422
+00:34:02,850 --> 00:34:07,750
+two hundreds try to read around the stock splits
+
+423
+00:34:07,750 --> 00:34:11,470
+حاولوا تقرؤوا حوالين ال stock splits okay and next
+
+424
+00:34:11,470 --> 00:34:14,690
+meeting I will try to give you details حاولوا
+
+425
+00:34:14,690 --> 00:34:20,670
+تقرؤوا إيش معنا اسم ال stock splitsبالظبط اه لكن
+
+426
+00:34:20,670 --> 00:34:26,130
+بيصير ال market price متخفض اخرقوا
+
+427
+00:34:26,130 --> 00:34:28,290
+عشان المرة الجاية اعملكم more explanation about
+
+428
+00:34:28,290 --> 00:34:36,470
+this طيب I give you example about other indexes
+
+429
+00:34:36,470 --> 00:34:39,910
+like New York Stock Exchange like NASDAQ هذا مؤشر
+
+430
+00:34:39,910 --> 00:34:44,710
+الأسهم الصناعية Wilshire 5000's عندنا Nikkei تبع
+
+431
+00:34:44,710 --> 00:34:49,330
+اليابان و عندنا الفوتسيفوتسي one hundred سوق ال ..
+
+432
+00:34:49,330 --> 00:34:52,990
+لندن السوق ال exchange وعنا dags طبع ألمانيا وفي
+
+433
+00:34:52,990 --> 00:34:57,610
+عندنا hang sing هونج كونج هدول تعرفوا أن في مؤشرات
+
+434
+00:34:57,610 --> 00:35:00,690
+مش بس في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية في مؤشرات حتى
+
+435
+00:35:00,690 --> 00:35:04,390
+عندنا في سوق فلسطين ايه فيه مؤشر ايش بيسميه مؤشر
+
+436
+00:35:04,390 --> 00:35:09,630
+مؤشر القدس okay مؤشر السوق الفلسطيني اسمه مؤشر
+
+437
+00:35:09,630 --> 00:35:15,630
+القدس فكل سوق لازم يكون له مؤشر نجف
+
+438
+00:35:15,630 --> 00:35:16,270
+عند هذا الحد
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/NOjTZdQNZt4_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/NOjTZdQNZt4_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1e18e6c965e0633261860d2c5bcaccd33a80d924
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/NOjTZdQNZt4_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 3382, "start": 21.68, "end": 33.82, "text": "Okay بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم الأسبوع الفات حكينا في ال .. ال bond market بالأسواق السندات", "tokens": [8297, 4724, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 16247, 35457, 45367, 27188, 9307, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 8978, 2423, 4386, 2423, 6086, 2142, 20666, 10721, 3794, 14407, 4587, 21136, 41260, 9307], "avg_logprob": -0.11810662071494495, "compression_ratio": 1.3063063063063063, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 21.68, "end": 22.06, "word": "Okay", "probability": 0.91845703125}, {"start": 22.06, "end": 23.1, "word": " بسم", "probability": 0.8466796875}, {"start": 23.1, "end": 23.24, "word": " الله", "probability": 0.98486328125}, {"start": 23.24, "end": 23.46, "word": " الرحمن", "probability": 0.9495442708333334}, {"start": 23.46, "end": 23.86, "word": " الرحيم", "probability": 0.99267578125}, {"start": 23.86, "end": 27.7, "word": " الأسبوع", "probability": 0.772216796875}, {"start": 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الأسهم العادية و الممتازة فانتبهوا معنا ال equity securities", "tokens": [2407, 12174, 38251, 8315, 5551, 3794, 14407, 4587, 21136, 41260, 9307, 2423, 6086, 2142, 5296, 2463, 14713, 4032, 10896, 14713, 45595, 20498, 8032, 1863, 5016, 4117, 1829, 20666, 10769, 38597, 8032, 1863, 5016, 4117, 1829, 20666, 10721, 3794, 14407, 4587, 16247, 3794, 16095, 1975, 2407, 5551, 3794, 14407, 4587, 16247, 3794, 16095, 18863, 18513, 10632, 4032, 9673, 2304, 2655, 31377, 3660, 6156, 7649, 2655, 3555, 3224, 14407, 20449, 8315, 2423, 10769, 38597], "avg_logprob": -0.13966181506849315, "compression_ratio": 1.6914285714285715, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 35.59, "end": 36.01, "word": "و", "probability": 0.7666015625}, {"start": 36.01, "end": 36.93, "word": " قسمنا", "probability": 0.799072265625}, {"start": 36.93, "end": 37.23, "word": " أسواق", "probability": 0.947998046875}, {"start": 37.23, "end": 37.67, "word": " السندات", "probability": 0.8624674479166666}, {"start": 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"word": " of", "probability": 0.9775390625}, {"start": 714.57, "end": 714.73, "word": " the", "probability": 0.82666015625}, {"start": 714.73, "end": 714.95, "word": " preferred", "probability": 0.9755859375}, {"start": 714.95, "end": 715.35, "word": " stock", "probability": 0.85498046875}, {"start": 715.35, "end": 716.17, "word": " وهذه", "probability": 0.756103515625}, {"start": 716.17, "end": 716.57, "word": " واحدة", "probability": 0.9837239583333334}, {"start": 716.57, "end": 716.73, "word": " من", "probability": 0.994140625}, {"start": 716.73, "end": 717.21, "word": " العيوب", "probability": 0.9143880208333334}, {"start": 717.21, "end": 718.49, "word": " بتاعة", "probability": 0.9358723958333334}, {"start": 718.49, "end": 718.91, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.97021484375}, {"start": 718.91, "end": 719.15, "word": " preferred", "probability": 0.76318359375}, {"start": 719.15, "end": 719.61, "word": " stock", "probability": 0.84814453125}, {"start": 719.61, "end": 720.51, "word": " الأسهم", "probability": 0.7906901041666666}, {"start": 720.51, "end": 721.11, "word": " ممتازة", "probability": 0.84189453125}, {"start": 721.11, "end": 722.31, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.8056640625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 29, "seek": 74275, "start": 724.93, "end": 742.75, "text": "بالنسبة للسندات regarding the tax treatment the interest payment is deducted from tax .. from expenses يعني الفائدة يتم اختطاعها من المصاريف and so we have tax exempted وبالتالي بنحصل على إفاء دريبة", "tokens": [3555, 6027, 1863, 35457, 3660, 24976, 3794, 1863, 3215, 9307, 8595, 264, 3366, 5032, 264, 1179, 10224, 307, 31513, 292, 490, 3366, 4386, 490, 15506, 37495, 22653, 27188, 16373, 41891, 7251, 39237, 1975, 46456, 9566, 45761, 11296, 9154, 9673, 9381, 9640, 33911, 293, 370, 321, 362, 3366, 30425, 292, 46599, 6027, 2655, 6027, 1829, 44945, 5016, 36520, 15844, 11933, 5172, 16606, 11778, 16572, 49401], "avg_logprob": -0.17103365384615385, "compression_ratio": 1.345, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 724.93, "end": 725.37, "word": "بالنسبة", "probability": 0.98388671875}, {"start": 725.37, "end": 726.03, "word": " للسندات", "probability": 0.73486328125}, {"start": 726.03, "end": 727.37, "word": " regarding", "probability": 0.5478515625}, {"start": 727.37, "end": 727.77, "word": " the", "probability": 0.93310546875}, {"start": 727.77, "end": 728.07, "word": " tax", "probability": 0.91552734375}, {"start": 728.07, "end": 728.79, "word": " treatment", "probability": 0.66357421875}, {"start": 728.79, "end": 729.87, "word": " the", "probability": 0.54345703125}, {"start": 729.87, "end": 730.35, "word": " interest", "probability": 0.92822265625}, {"start": 730.35, "end": 731.23, "word": " payment", "probability": 0.9677734375}, {"start": 731.23, "end": 731.87, "word": " is", "probability": 0.97119140625}, {"start": 731.87, "end": 732.29, "word": " deducted", "probability": 0.94921875}, {"start": 732.29, "end": 732.47, "word": " from", 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إعفاء ضريبي فهذه الفروقات بين ال preferred stock and the common stocks okay", "tokens": [1211, 19452, 337, 264, 16494, 4127, 309, 307, 406, 3366, 31513, 292, 490, 264, 15506, 39896, 20193, 7251, 39237, 1975, 46456, 9566, 45761, 11296, 9154, 9673, 9381, 9640, 33911, 293, 370, 321, 2644, 362, 264, 3366, 30425, 292, 4032, 2304, 8592, 8032, 36081, 2304, 2655, 3615, 8978, 11933, 3615, 5172, 16606, 48812, 16572, 21292, 6156, 3224, 24192, 27188, 2288, 30543, 9307, 49374, 2423, 16494, 4127, 293, 264, 2689, 12966, 1392], "avg_logprob": -0.14447623365361925, "compression_ratio": 1.4271844660194175, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 743.6, "end": 744.12, "word": "لكن", "probability": 0.909423828125}, {"start": 744.12, "end": 744.72, "word": " for", "probability": 0.912109375}, {"start": 744.72, "end": 744.86, "word": " the", "probability": 0.927734375}, {"start": 744.86, "end": 745.14, "word": " preferred", "probability": 0.89013671875}, {"start": 745.14, "end": 745.58, 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{"start": 751.6, "end": 751.72, "word": " من", "probability": 0.9912109375}, {"start": 751.72, "end": 752.28, "word": " المصاريف", "probability": 0.9879150390625}, {"start": 752.28, "end": 752.72, "word": " and", "probability": 0.92236328125}, {"start": 752.72, "end": 753.66, "word": " so", "probability": 0.92431640625}, {"start": 753.66, "end": 754.22, "word": " we", "probability": 0.9365234375}, {"start": 754.22, "end": 754.58, "word": " cannot", "probability": 0.83447265625}, {"start": 754.58, "end": 755.64, "word": " have", "probability": 0.97314453125}, {"start": 755.64, "end": 755.82, "word": " the", "probability": 0.93017578125}, {"start": 755.82, "end": 756.08, "word": " tax", "probability": 0.94140625}, {"start": 756.08, "end": 756.74, "word": " exempted", "probability": 0.951416015625}, {"start": 756.74, "end": 757.1, "word": " ومش", "probability": 0.8572591145833334}, {"start": 757.1, "end": 757.62, "word": " هيتمتع", "probability": 0.863134765625}, {"start": 757.62, "end": 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"probability": 0.85107421875}, {"start": 765.2, "end": 768.12, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.759765625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 31, "seek": 80056, "start": 772.34, "end": 800.56, "text": "American depository receipts هاي ما الناس نحكي فيها أخر واحدة stock market indexes نحكي على أسواق المؤشرات أسواق الأسهم stock market indexes some people they call stock market indices بعض الناس بالفظها indices سواء كانت indices ولا indices are the same مؤشرات أسواق الأسهم", "tokens": [14604, 19107, 827, 2268, 48908, 8032, 47302, 19446, 2423, 8315, 3794, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 8978, 11296, 5551, 34740, 36764, 24401, 3660, 4127, 2142, 8186, 279, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 15844, 5551, 3794, 14407, 4587, 9673, 33604, 46309, 9307, 5551, 3794, 14407, 4587, 16247, 3794, 16095, 4127, 2142, 8186, 279, 512, 561, 436, 818, 4127, 2142, 43840, 45030, 11242, 2423, 8315, 3794, 20666, 5172, 19913, 11296, 43840, 8608, 2407, 16606, 25961, 2655, 43840, 49429, 43840, 366, 264, 912, 3714, 33604, 46309, 9307, 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"probability": 0.79443359375}, {"start": 1372.29, "end": 1377.93, "word": " in", "probability": 0.89453125}, {"start": 1377.93, "end": 1378.29, "word": " price", "probability": 0.955078125}, {"start": 1378.29, "end": 1378.81, "word": " weighted", "probability": 0.84619140625}, {"start": 1378.81, "end": 1379.19, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.39111328125}, {"start": 1379.19, "end": 1380.57, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.52783203125}, {"start": 1380.57, "end": 1380.79, "word": " price", "probability": 0.96142578125}, {"start": 1380.79, "end": 1381.11, "word": " weighted", "probability": 0.79638671875}, {"start": 1381.11, "end": 1381.47, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.938720703125}, {"start": 1381.47, "end": 1381.97, "word": " حسب", "probability": 0.990966796875}, {"start": 1381.97, "end": 1382.31, "word": " السعر", "probability": 0.8971354166666666}, {"start": 1382.31, "end": 1382.81, "word": " المؤجح", "probability": 0.7974853515625}, {"start": 1382.81, "end": 1384.81, "word": " if", "probability": 0.904296875}, {"start": 1384.81, "end": 1384.99, "word": " we", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 1384.99, "end": 1385.41, "word": " have", "probability": 0.97509765625}, {"start": 1385.41, "end": 1388.13, "word": " two", "probability": 0.8935546875}, {"start": 1388.13, "end": 1388.59, "word": " stock", "probability": 0.583984375}, {"start": 1388.59, "end": 1389.27, "word": " إذا", "probability": 0.6419677734375}, {"start": 1389.27, "end": 1389.45, "word": " كان", "probability": 0.98193359375}, {"start": 1389.45, "end": 1389.75, "word": " عندي", "probability": 0.755126953125}, {"start": 1389.75, "end": 1389.97, "word": " two", "probability": 0.93701171875}, {"start": 1389.97, "end": 1390.37, "word": " stocks", "probability": 0.80859375}, {"start": 1390.37, "end": 1391.63, "word": " سهمين", "probability": 0.654541015625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 57, "seek": 142164, "start": 1395.32, "end": 1421.64, "text": "stock A and stock B يعني إذا كان ال index if the index includes only two stocks يعني إذا بس بيشمل سهمين A and B we should know the price of A and the price of B لازم نعرف سعر A وسعر B according to your example for instance the price of A is 25$ and the price of B is 100$", "tokens": [23914, 316, 293, 4127, 363, 37495, 22653, 11933, 15730, 25961, 2423, 8186, 498, 264, 8186, 5974, 787, 732, 12966, 37495, 22653, 11933, 15730, 4724, 3794, 4724, 1829, 8592, 42213, 8608, 16095, 9957, 316, 293, 363, 321, 820, 458, 264, 3218, 295, 316, 293, 264, 3218, 295, 363, 5296, 31377, 2304, 8717, 3615, 28480, 8608, 3615, 2288, 316, 46952, 3615, 2288, 363, 4650, 281, 428, 1365, 337, 5197, 264, 3218, 295, 316, 307, 3552, 3, 293, 264, 3218, 295, 363, 307, 2319, 3], "avg_logprob": -0.1259412700871387, "compression_ratio": 1.5240384615384615, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1395.32, "end": 1395.78, "word": "stock", "probability": 0.69921875}, {"start": 1395.78, "end": 1396.08, "word": " A", "probability": 0.68359375}, {"start": 1396.08, "end": 1396.3, "word": " and", "probability": 0.308837890625}, {"start": 1396.3, "end": 1396.56, "word": " stock", "probability": 0.69384765625}, {"start": 1396.56, "end": 1396.88, "word": " B", "probability": 0.94384765625}, {"start": 1396.88, "end": 1397.84, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.903076171875}, {"start": 1397.84, "end": 1397.98, "word": " إذا", "probability": 0.836181640625}, {"start": 1397.98, "end": 1398.22, "word": " كان", "probability": 0.99365234375}, {"start": 1398.22, "end": 1398.34, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9677734375}, {"start": 1398.34, "end": 1398.78, "word": " index", "probability": 0.83740234375}, {"start": 1398.78, "end": 1401.02, "word": " if", "probability": 0.74755859375}, {"start": 1401.02, "end": 1401.14, "word": " the", "probability": 0.892578125}, {"start": 1401.14, "end": 1401.52, "word": " index", "probability": 0.89404296875}, {"start": 1401.52, "end": 1402.08, "word": " includes", "probability": 0.90966796875}, {"start": 1402.08, 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" should", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 1407.62, "end": 1407.94, "word": " know", "probability": 0.927734375}, {"start": 1407.94, "end": 1408.16, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9091796875}, {"start": 1408.16, "end": 1408.46, "word": " price", "probability": 0.9375}, {"start": 1408.46, "end": 1408.62, "word": " of", "probability": 0.982421875}, {"start": 1408.62, "end": 1408.9, "word": " A", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 1408.9, "end": 1409.54, "word": " and", "probability": 0.94775390625}, {"start": 1409.54, "end": 1409.68, "word": " the", "probability": 0.75439453125}, {"start": 1409.68, "end": 1409.96, "word": " price", "probability": 0.91943359375}, {"start": 1409.96, "end": 1410.12, "word": " of", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 1410.12, "end": 1410.38, "word": " B", "probability": 0.99560546875}, {"start": 1410.38, "end": 1411.18, "word": " لازم", "probability": 0.9684244791666666}, {"start": 1411.18, "end": 1411.64, "word": " نعرف", "probability": 0.9908854166666666}, {"start": 1411.64, "end": 1412.7, "word": " سعر", "probability": 0.9912109375}, {"start": 1412.7, "end": 1412.88, "word": " A", "probability": 0.9658203125}, {"start": 1412.88, "end": 1413.2, "word": " وسعر", "probability": 0.83203125}, {"start": 1413.2, "end": 1413.38, "word": " B", "probability": 0.9404296875}, {"start": 1413.38, "end": 1414.24, "word": " according", "probability": 0.8525390625}, {"start": 1414.24, "end": 1414.44, "word": " to", "probability": 0.97412109375}, {"start": 1414.44, "end": 1414.6, "word": " your", "probability": 0.8837890625}, {"start": 1414.6, "end": 1415.02, "word": " example", "probability": 0.9716796875}, {"start": 1415.02, "end": 1415.26, "word": " for", "probability": 0.92529296875}, {"start": 1415.26, "end": 1415.74, "word": " instance", "probability": 0.96142578125}, {"start": 1415.74, "end": 1416.4, "word": " the", "probability": 0.82373046875}, {"start": 1416.4, "end": 1416.72, "word": " price", "probability": 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"probability": 0.74755859375}, {"start": 1425.02, "end": 1425.3, "word": " for", "probability": 0.89892578125}, {"start": 1425.3, "end": 1425.54, "word": " instance", "probability": 0.8984375}, {"start": 1425.54, "end": 1425.74, "word": " for", "probability": 0.90966796875}, {"start": 1425.74, "end": 1426.08, "word": " today", "probability": 0.837890625}, {"start": 1426.08, "end": 1426.38, "word": " or", "probability": 0.89501953125}, {"start": 1426.38, "end": 1426.56, "word": " for", "probability": 0.353515625}, {"start": 1426.56, "end": 1426.84, "word": " from", "probability": 0.787109375}, {"start": 1426.84, "end": 1426.96, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9345703125}, {"start": 1426.96, "end": 1427.24, "word": " previous", "probability": 0.8544921875}, {"start": 1427.24, "end": 1427.5, "word": " day", "probability": 0.94287109375}, {"start": 1427.5, "end": 1428.34, "word": " now", "probability": 0.68994140625}, {"start": 1428.34, "end": 1429.04, "word": " we", "probability": 0.95947265625}, {"start": 1429.04, "end": 1429.66, "word": " observe", "probability": 0.8837890625}, {"start": 1429.66, "end": 1429.84, "word": " the", "probability": 0.94677734375}, {"start": 1429.84, "end": 1430.22, "word": " changes", "probability": 0.8916015625}, {"start": 1430.22, "end": 1430.44, "word": " in", "probability": 0.96142578125}, {"start": 1430.44, "end": 1430.56, "word": " the", "probability": 0.93896484375}, {"start": 1430.56, "end": 1430.98, "word": " price", "probability": 0.91748046875}, {"start": 1430.98, "end": 1432.34, "word": " باللاحظ", "probability": 0.66827392578125}, {"start": 1432.34, "end": 1433.38, "word": " التغير", "probability": 0.8824869791666666}, {"start": 1433.38, "end": 1433.5, "word": " في", "probability": 0.95361328125}, {"start": 1433.5, "end": 1433.92, "word": " الأسعار", "probability": 0.980224609375}, {"start": 1433.92, "end": 1434.42, "word": " for", "probability": 0.92919921875}, {"start": 1434.42, "end": 1434.68, "word": " instance", 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احنا جهلنا ال average so we amend the average by using the index بس انه احنا بنعمل amending بنعمل amending يعني يعني كأنه احنا قلنا قداش انا بعت الطلاب", "tokens": [259, 264, 912, 420, 294, 264, 2531, 636, 1975, 15730, 1975, 5016, 8315, 11331, 16758, 9957, 8717, 5016, 35457, 2423, 8186, 20666, 2531, 636, 3714, 33604, 46309, 574, 412, 510, 321, 510, 321, 321, 764, 732, 12966, 370, 321, 11200, 264, 4274, 1975, 5016, 8315, 10874, 3224, 1211, 8315, 2423, 4274, 370, 321, 11704, 264, 4274, 538, 1228, 264, 8186, 4724, 3794, 16472, 3224, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 25957, 1211, 669, 2029, 44945, 25957, 1211, 669, 2029, 37495, 22653, 37495, 22653, 9122, 33456, 3224, 1975, 5016, 8315, 12174, 1211, 8315, 12174, 3215, 33599, 1975, 8315, 4724, 34268, 41950, 15040, 3555], "avg_logprob": -0.18301361268109614, "compression_ratio": 1.8194444444444444, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1623.09, "end": 1623.33, "word": "in", "probability": 0.68701171875}, {"start": 1623.33, "end": 1623.51, "word": 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2003.44, "end": 2003.7, "word": " hundred", "probability": 0.94140625}, {"start": 2003.7, "end": 2004.1, "word": " shares", "probability": 0.90673828125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 81, "seek": 203055, "start": 2005.31, "end": 2030.55, "text": "and when the company do stock splits it becomes like two hundreds stock splits اللي هو تجديئة السهم الشركات بتلجأ لتجديئة السهم في بعض الحالات ممكن يكون في زيادة في رأس المال عندهم so they do stock splits بيعمل تجديئة للسهم so one stock may", "tokens": [474, 562, 264, 2237, 360, 4127, 37741, 309, 3643, 411, 732, 6779, 4127, 37741, 13672, 1829, 31439, 6055, 7435, 16254, 19986, 3660, 21136, 16095, 25124, 31747, 9307, 39894, 1211, 7435, 10721, 5296, 2655, 7435, 16254, 19986, 3660, 21136, 16095, 8978, 45030, 11242, 21542, 6027, 9307, 3714, 43020, 7251, 30544, 8978, 30767, 1829, 18513, 3660, 8978, 12602, 10721, 3794, 9673, 6027, 43242, 16095, 370, 436, 360, 4127, 37741, 4724, 1829, 25957, 1211, 6055, 7435, 16254, 19986, 3660, 24976, 3794, 16095, 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stocks ممكن يساوي سهمين when the company do stock splits لما الشركة تعمل stock splits if you hold one hundred shares it becomes two hundreds try to read around the stock splits حاولوا تقرؤوا حوالين ال stock splits okay and next meeting I will try to give you details حاولوا تقرؤوا إيش معنا اسم ال stock splits", "tokens": [12816, 304, 732, 12966, 3714, 43020, 7251, 3794, 995, 45865, 8608, 16095, 9957, 562, 264, 2237, 360, 4127, 37741, 5296, 15042, 25124, 31747, 3660, 6055, 25957, 1211, 4127, 37741, 498, 291, 1797, 472, 3262, 12182, 309, 3643, 732, 6779, 853, 281, 1401, 926, 264, 4127, 37741, 11331, 995, 12610, 14407, 6055, 4587, 2288, 33604, 14407, 11331, 2407, 6027, 9957, 2423, 4127, 37741, 1392, 293, 958, 3440, 286, 486, 853, 281, 976, 291, 4365, 11331, 995, 12610, 14407, 6055, 4587, 2288, 33604, 14407, 11933, 1829, 8592, 20449, 8315, 24525, 2304, 2423, 4127, 37741], "avg_logprob": -0.15297378839985018, "compression_ratio": 1.6666666666666667, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 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price متخفض اخرقوا عشان المرة الجاية اعملكم more explanation about this طيب I give you example about other indexes like New York Stock Exchange like NASDAQ هذا مؤشر الأسهم الصناعية Wilshire 5000's عندنا Nikkei تبع اليابان و عندنا الفوتسي", "tokens": [3555, 6027, 19913, 3555, 9566, 1975, 3224, 44381, 4724, 1829, 9381, 13546, 2423, 2142, 3218, 44650, 9778, 5172, 11242, 1975, 9778, 2288, 4587, 14407, 6225, 8592, 7649, 9673, 25720, 25724, 995, 10632, 1975, 25957, 23275, 2304, 544, 10835, 466, 341, 23032, 1829, 3555, 286, 976, 291, 1365, 466, 661, 8186, 279, 411, 1873, 3609, 17857, 31169, 411, 10182, 7509, 48, 23758, 3714, 33604, 46309, 16247, 3794, 16095, 31767, 8315, 3615, 10632, 9483, 22294, 23777, 311, 43242, 8315, 13969, 330, 72, 6055, 3555, 3615, 45595, 16758, 7649, 4032, 43242, 8315, 27188, 35473, 3794, 1829], "avg_logprob": -0.2504986819434673, "compression_ratio": 1.3418181818181818, "no_speech_prob": 2.384185791015625e-07, "words": [{"start": 2058.61, "end": 2059.17, "word": 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/NOjTZdQNZt4_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/NOjTZdQNZt4_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f8e7f1bf7c561d6b2a8b2a3d735127f05f3a4acd
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/NOjTZdQNZt4_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1760 @@
+1
+00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:27,700
+Okay بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم الأسبوع
+
+2
+00:00:27,700 --> 00:00:33,280
+الفات حكينا في ال .. ال bond market بالأسواق
+
+3
+00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:38,710
+السنداتو قسمنا أسواق السندات ال bond market ل
+
+4
+00:00:38,710 --> 00:00:46,710
+government bonds و corporate bonds اليوم هنحكي بال
+
+5
+00:00:46,710 --> 00:00:54,430
+equity securities هنحكي بالأسواق الأسهم او أسواق
+
+6
+00:00:54,430 --> 00:01:01,310
+الأسهم العادية و الممتازة فانتبهوا معنا ال equity
+
+7
+00:01:01,310 --> 00:01:05,010
+securitiesincludes the common stock and preferred
+
+8
+00:01:05,010 --> 00:01:11,610
+stock نحكي هنا عن equity equity
+
+9
+00:01:11,610 --> 00:01:19,130
+market includes common stock and preferred stock
+
+10
+00:01:19,130 --> 00:01:22,650
+بتشمل
+
+11
+00:01:22,650 --> 00:01:26,450
+نوعية من الأسهم الأسهم العادية و الأسهم الممتازة
+
+12
+00:01:26,450 --> 00:01:32,560
+نحكي نبدأ بال common stock نبدأ بالأسهم العاديةال
+
+13
+00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:38,060
+.. ال common stock is represent the ownership of
+
+14
+00:01:38,060 --> 00:01:43,560
+the investors in a particular company يعني بتمثل
+
+15
+00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:49,200
+ملكية المستثمرين أو المساهمين في الشركة
+
+16
+00:01:51,580 --> 00:01:53,280
+there are some characteristics on the common
+
+17
+00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:58,220
+stock, بعض الخصائص لل common stock and there are
+
+18
+00:01:58,220 --> 00:02:00,440
+some general characteristics for the common stock
+
+19
+00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,760
+في بعض الخصائص العامة لل common stock مثل ال
+
+20
+00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:09,770
+voting right زي ما انتوا بتعرفوا voting rightحق
+
+21
+00:02:09,770 --> 00:02:18,630
+التصويت for each stockholder has right to vote to
+
+22
+00:02:18,630 --> 00:02:22,190
+select the board of directors كل واحد من ال
+
+23
+00:02:22,190 --> 00:02:28,470
+shareholder أو ال stockholder له حق يصوت لاختيار
+
+24
+00:02:28,470 --> 00:02:32,070
+مجلس الإدارة يعني voting to select the board of
+
+25
+00:02:32,070 --> 00:02:36,610
+directors this is BOD stand for the board of
+
+26
+00:02:36,610 --> 00:02:41,410
+directorsthen the .. then the board of directors
+
+27
+00:02:41,410 --> 00:02:48,890
+select the .. the managers, business managers, the
+
+28
+00:02:48,890 --> 00:02:52,430
+managers are in charge to run the .. the daily
+
+29
+00:02:52,430 --> 00:02:55,590
+business activities و المناجر هم المسئولين عشان
+
+30
+00:02:55,590 --> 00:03:02,590
+ليديروا أعمال و الأنشطة اليومية للمنشئةال voting
+
+31
+00:03:02,590 --> 00:03:06,430
+rights هاي is general characteristics خصية عامة لل
+
+32
+00:03:06,430 --> 00:03:09,250
+.. لل common stocks however there are some stocks
+
+33
+00:03:09,250 --> 00:03:13,690
+has no voting rights في بعض الخصي .. I'm not
+
+34
+00:03:13,690 --> 00:03:16,090
+talking about the preferred stock there are some
+
+35
+00:03:16,090 --> 00:03:20,750
+common stock في بعض ال common stock they don't
+
+36
+00:03:20,750 --> 00:03:26,930
+have the .. the voting rights because some
+
+37
+00:03:26,930 --> 00:03:31,650
+companies issue some private issuesfor the common
+
+38
+00:03:31,650 --> 00:03:35,070
+stock يعني بعض المؤسسات بعض الشركات تصدر أسهم
+
+39
+00:03:35,070 --> 00:03:40,490
+عادية لا تتمتع بحق التصويت وهي في special
+
+40
+00:03:40,490 --> 00:03:43,850
+condition to issue this but generally بشكل عام
+
+41
+00:03:43,850 --> 00:03:47,050
+الأسهم العادية هي لها حق التصويت but in some cases
+
+42
+00:03:47,050 --> 00:03:50,090
+in some special cases they some companies have a
+
+43
+00:03:50,090 --> 00:03:53,590
+right to issue shares with no voting rightsيعني
+
+44
+00:03:53,590 --> 00:03:56,890
+بعض المؤسسة as you .. if you just read in the
+
+45
+00:03:56,890 --> 00:04:02,970
+footnotes you will read some corporates may issue
+
+46
+00:04:02,970 --> 00:04:06,790
+stock or common stock they don't have voting
+
+47
+00:04:06,790 --> 00:04:12,710
+rights ماعندهم مش حق التصويت there's some specific
+
+48
+00:04:12,710 --> 00:04:15,330
+characteristics for the common stocks في بعض
+
+49
+00:04:15,330 --> 00:04:19,170
+الخصائص المحددة لل common stocks for instance the
+
+50
+00:04:19,170 --> 00:04:23,360
+first one is the residual claimresidual claim
+
+51
+00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:30,220
+residual claim it means the common stockholder has
+
+52
+00:04:30,220 --> 00:04:35,440
+the last in line for the claim when the company go
+
+53
+00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:39,700
+to the bankruptcy يعني آخر ناس بيستطيعوا يحصلوا
+
+54
+00:04:39,700 --> 00:04:44,080
+على حقوقهم وعلى أموالهم هم أصحاب الأسهم العادية
+
+55
+00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:48,220
+فبسموها residual claim يعني آخر ناس بيحصلوا على
+
+56
+00:04:48,220 --> 00:04:53,760
+مستحقاتهم واستثماراتهم هم أصحاب الأسهم العادية
+
+57
+00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,000
+this is why they call them residual claim عشان هيك
+
+58
+00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,840
+بيسموهم residual residual يعني المتبقي يعني بعد ما
+
+59
+00:05:00,840 --> 00:05:04,120
+.. لما يصير bankruptcy bankruptcy معناها إفلاس
+
+60
+00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:09,790
+they rankthe investors according to their priority
+
+61
+00:05:09,790 --> 00:05:12,110
+and they apply some rules and regulations to rank
+
+62
+00:05:12,110 --> 00:05:16,470
+them يعني حسب القوانين لما الشركة تروح للإفلاس
+
+63
+00:05:16,470 --> 00:05:21,650
+بيروحوا بيرتبوا المستثمرين مثلا الديون الديون كانت
+
+64
+00:05:21,650 --> 00:05:25,210
+للحكومة إذا الديون كانت لشركات إذا كان ضريبة إذا
+
+65
+00:05:25,210 --> 00:05:28,650
+كان رواتب موظفين كلهم بيرتبوهم حسب الأولوية
+
+66
+00:05:28,650 --> 00:05:32,810
+والقانون هو اللي بيرتب الأولوية ال common stock
+
+67
+00:05:32,810 --> 00:05:37,360
+بتاخد the last priorityالcommerce للأسهم العادية
+
+68
+00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:42,320
+بتاخد أخر أخر إشي فبعد ما يصير bankruptcy يروح
+
+69
+00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,420
+يوزع كل واحد مستحقاته المتبقي هذا بيسموه residual
+
+70
+00:05:45,420 --> 00:05:51,080
+المتبقى بيعتول الأسهم العادية هذا إذا ضال متبقي
+
+71
+00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:57,280
+limited liability limited liability it means the
+
+72
+00:05:57,280 --> 00:06:01,080
+investors يعني التزامات محدودة it means the
+
+73
+00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:05,600
+investors they are liableto the amount of money
+
+74
+00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:10,100
+that invest in the company يعني هم فقط بيخسروا
+
+75
+00:06:10,100 --> 00:06:14,400
+الأموال اللي هم استثمروها في الشركة يعني مثلا يعني
+
+76
+00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:19,960
+مثلا إذا كان عندهم استثمار في استثمار يعني إذا كان
+
+77
+00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,260
+أقسم العادية بتاعتهم قيمتها عشرة مليون دولار
+
+78
+00:06:22,260 --> 00:06:26,660
+فالخسائر لا تتعدى العشرة مليون دولار okay هاي
+
+79
+00:06:26,660 --> 00:06:30,540
+بيسموها limited liability limited liabilities it
+
+80
+00:06:30,540 --> 00:06:36,290
+meanstheir liable is not exceed the amount that
+
+81
+00:06:36,290 --> 00:06:39,350
+they invest in the company يعني التزاماتهم لا
+
+82
+00:06:39,350 --> 00:06:43,550
+تتعدى الأموال اللي بيستثمروها مثلا إذا كان زي ما
+
+83
+00:06:43,550 --> 00:06:48,250
+حكينا عشرة مليون دولار مستثمرين أو اللي هم أسهم
+
+84
+00:06:48,250 --> 00:06:52,410
+عادية بهذا المبلغ وبالتالي الخسائر تبعتهم لا تتعدى
+
+85
+00:06:52,410 --> 00:06:57,930
+العشرة مليون دولار اللي هم مستثمرينها okay نحكي عن
+
+86
+00:06:57,930 --> 00:06:58,650
+ال preferred stock
+
+87
+00:07:01,390 --> 00:07:08,730
+البرفيات ال stock هي أسهم ممتازة okay هاي الأسهم
+
+88
+00:07:08,730 --> 00:07:13,290
+ممتازة بتختلف عن الأسهم العادية في اختلاف أول بال
+
+89
+00:07:13,290 --> 00:07:16,030
+bar value مثلا ال bar value اللي كم ال stock عادة
+
+90
+00:07:16,030 --> 00:07:19,070
+one dollar من ناحية المحاسبية البرفيات ال stock
+
+91
+00:07:19,070 --> 00:07:23,310
+ten dollar هذا فرق مش كتير جوهري نجعل ال ..
+
+92
+00:07:23,310 --> 00:07:26,490
+البرفيات ال stock لاحظين احنا مكتوب perpetuity
+
+93
+00:07:26,490 --> 00:07:33,160
+perpetuity يعني اباديةيعني اتم there is no
+
+94
+00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,940
+maturity date for the preferred stock مافيش
+
+95
+00:07:36,940 --> 00:07:41,920
+maturity dateمافيش تاريخ استحقاق لل .. لل
+
+96
+00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:46,360
+preferred stock يعني هيتم إصدارها بدون تواريخ
+
+97
+00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:51,960
+استحقاق and this part of preferred stock is a
+
+98
+00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:58,140
+hybrid what it means hybrid يعني hybrid يعني تجمع
+
+99
+00:07:58,140 --> 00:08:02,720
+أكثر من خاصيتين the .. the characteristics of the
+
+100
+00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,900
+common stock and the characteristics of bondيعني
+
+101
+00:08:05,900 --> 00:08:08,880
+بتشمل بين .. تجمع بين خاصيتين، خاصية ال common
+
+102
+00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:14,080
+stock و خاصية ال .. ال bond، السندات، so it have
+
+103
+00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:17,700
+or it .. it has the advantages of both، بتجمع
+
+104
+00:08:17,700 --> 00:08:23,200
+خصائص وميزيزيات التنتين، sometimes they call this
+
+105
+00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:31,540
+hybrid، hybrid يعني مختلطة، لها ميزة مختلطة، سموها
+
+106
+00:08:31,540 --> 00:08:31,880
+hybrid
+
+107
+00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:41,580
+Okay فبتجمع بين خصائص الأسهم العادية وبين خصائص
+
+108
+00:08:41,580 --> 00:08:48,520
+السندات طيب نشوف fixed dividends one of the
+
+109
+00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,660
+characteristics of fixed dividends عائثة بتقن this
+
+110
+00:08:52,660 --> 00:08:59,480
+is looks like bonds بتشبه ال bonds تشبه السندات
+
+111
+00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:06,540
+okayلأنه ال .. ال .. ال bond paid fixed income
+
+112
+00:09:06,540 --> 00:09:11,280
+تدفع fixed income priority over the .. over common
+
+113
+00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:15,480
+stock زي ما حكينا قبل شوية أنه لما بنعمل
+
+114
+00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:18,040
+priorities .. priorities أولوية when the .. when
+
+115
+00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,700
+the company go to bankruptcySo according to
+
+116
+00:09:21,700 --> 00:09:26,580
+regulations they rank the investors or the
+
+117
+00:09:26,580 --> 00:09:30,760
+securities according to the priority برتبوهم حسب
+
+118
+00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:35,340
+ال priority لما احنا بندفع لل investors لما يصير
+
+119
+00:09:35,340 --> 00:09:39,320
+في عندنا إفلاس وبالتالي هان لما احنا بنرتبهم لو
+
+120
+00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:43,560
+عملنا واحد اتنين تلاتة اربعة اخر اشي بيجي ال
+
+121
+00:09:43,560 --> 00:09:47,960
+common stock and before the common stock before
+
+122
+00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:48,580
+the preferred stock
+
+123
+00:09:51,550 --> 00:09:54,050
+الى حق الأولوية before they prepare the stock
+
+124
+00:09:54,050 --> 00:09:58,550
+عندنا ال bond اذا احنا بنرجع before the bonds ال
+
+125
+00:09:58,550 --> 00:10:01,190
+taxation ضريبة الحكومة before the taxation
+
+126
+00:10:01,190 --> 00:10:05,910
+salaries employees salaries and so on okay so from
+
+127
+00:10:05,910 --> 00:10:09,450
+government to government or from country to
+
+128
+00:10:09,450 --> 00:10:12,710
+country there is some little changes in the
+
+129
+00:10:12,710 --> 00:10:16,910
+priority over the securities يعني حسب كل دولة
+
+130
+00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,940
+بحددوا إيش ال priorities الأولويات لكن in general
+
+131
+00:10:21,940 --> 00:10:26,620
+بشكل عام بيكون ال preferred stock is before the
+
+132
+00:10:26,620 --> 00:10:31,300
+common stock ده ما يصير فيه عندنا سداد للاموال
+
+133
+00:10:31,300 --> 00:10:39,920
+المستثمرين tax treatment ال tax treatment the
+
+134
+00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,580
+dividends which is looks like the common stock
+
+135
+00:10:42,580 --> 00:10:45,440
+treatment تشبه ال common stock treatment
+
+136
+00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:57,820
+المستخدمين في السوق المفضل يدفعون تاكس على الدفعات
+
+137
+00:10:57,820 --> 00:11:06,960
+وهو يسمى إذا قمت بفتح صفحة صفحة
+
+138
+00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:14,740
+43 فالسوق العام ليس مستخدم للدفع تاكس ما يعنيه
+
+139
+00:11:14,740 --> 00:11:20,680
+تاكس لا تاكس مستخدمin the bonds the tax is
+
+140
+00:11:20,680 --> 00:11:25,760
+deducted from the expenses however in the
+
+141
+00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:29,380
+preferred stock the tax is not deducted from the
+
+142
+00:11:29,380 --> 00:11:35,460
+expenses يعني بحالة السندات الفائدة
+
+143
+00:11:35,460 --> 00:11:40,260
+يتم طرحها من المصاريف وبالتالي بيصير عندنا إعفاء
+
+144
+00:11:40,260 --> 00:11:46,750
+ضريبي لكن بالأسهم الممتازةال dividends بتاعة ال
+
+145
+00:11:46,750 --> 00:11:50,490
+preferred stock لا يتم اختصامها او قطعها من
+
+146
+00:11:50,490 --> 00:11:53,690
+المصاريف وبالتالي لا تتمتع بوفرة ضربية and this is
+
+147
+00:11:53,690 --> 00:11:56,730
+disadvantage of the preferred stock وهذه واحدة من
+
+148
+00:11:56,730 --> 00:12:02,310
+العيوب بتاعة ال preferred stock الأسهم ممتازة okay
+
+149
+00:12:04,930 --> 00:12:09,870
+بالنسبة للسندات regarding the tax treatment the
+
+150
+00:12:09,870 --> 00:12:13,230
+interest payment is deducted from tax .. from
+
+151
+00:12:13,230 --> 00:12:19,210
+expenses يعني الفائدة يتم اختطاعها من المصاريف and
+
+152
+00:12:19,210 --> 00:12:22,410
+so we have tax exempted وبالتالي بنحصل على إفاء
+
+153
+00:12:22,410 --> 00:12:27,440
+دريبةلكن for the preferred stock it is not tax
+
+154
+00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:31,720
+deducted from the expenses هي لا يتم اختطاعها من
+
+155
+00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:36,740
+المصاريف and so we cannot have the tax exempted
+
+156
+00:12:36,740 --> 00:12:41,740
+ومش هيتمتع في إعفاء ضريبي فهذه الفروقات بين ال
+
+157
+00:12:41,740 --> 00:12:48,120
+preferred stock and the common stocks okay
+
+158
+00:12:52,340 --> 00:12:56,060
+American depository receipts هاي ما الناس نحكي
+
+159
+00:12:56,060 --> 00:13:04,400
+فيها أخر واحدة stock market indexes نحكي على أسواق
+
+160
+00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:10,120
+المؤشرات أسواق الأسهم stock market indexes some
+
+161
+00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:13,420
+people they call stock market indices بعض الناس
+
+162
+00:13:13,420 --> 00:13:17,420
+بالفظها indices سواء كانت indices ولا indices are
+
+163
+00:13:17,420 --> 00:13:23,880
+the same مؤشرات أسواق الأسهملو انتوا .. اكتبوا
+
+164
+00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:29,520
+معناها .. لو انتوا مثلا فاتحتوا مثلا الجزيرة
+
+165
+00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:36,720
+الاقتصادية او العربية او CNBC هتيجي اخر اليوم حصاد
+
+166
+00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:42,130
+اقتصادي بيجي بيحكي مثلا ال Dow Jonesمثلا انخفض او
+
+167
+00:13:42,130 --> 00:13:46,550
+ارتفع بيجي بيحكي ال 4100 ارتفع او انخفض بيجي بيحكي
+
+168
+00:13:46,550 --> 00:13:51,470
+S&P 500 ارتفع او انخفض بيحكي ال CAC 40 انخفض او
+
+169
+00:13:51,470 --> 00:13:54,690
+ارتفع هدول مش شركات هدول عبارة عن مؤشرات أسباب
+
+170
+00:13:54,690 --> 00:13:57,370
+مالية يعني مثلا لو أجيب نحكي على New York Stock
+
+171
+00:13:57,370 --> 00:14:03,290
+Exchange New York Stock Exchange New York Stock
+
+172
+00:14:03,290 --> 00:14:08,810
+Exchange هذا سوق بدوم ألاف الشركاتفلمّا بنعمل
+
+173
+00:14:08,810 --> 00:14:13,770
+تقرير عن أداء السوق، مانفعش نعمل تقرير عن كل شركة
+
+174
+00:14:13,770 --> 00:14:19,610
+فال financial market committee اللي هو لجنة
+
+175
+00:14:19,610 --> 00:14:23,970
+الأسواق المالية قررت أنه ت select particular
+
+176
+00:14:23,970 --> 00:14:29,230
+companies based on a particular criteriato select
+
+177
+00:14:29,230 --> 00:14:31,910
+particular companies based on the particular
+
+178
+00:14:31,910 --> 00:14:35,570
+criteria to be in the index يعني مثلا لو أنا عندى
+
+179
+00:14:35,570 --> 00:14:38,430
+3000 شركة مثلا موجودة بال New York Stock Exchange
+
+180
+00:14:39,590 --> 00:14:44,730
+They select for instance 500 companies from the
+
+181
+00:14:44,730 --> 00:14:48,630
+3000 based on a particular criteria to represent
+
+182
+00:14:48,630 --> 00:14:52,370
+the financial market يعني بيختاروا أفضل مثلا 500
+
+183
+00:14:52,370 --> 00:14:54,610
+شركة حسب market capitalization market
+
+184
+00:14:54,610 --> 00:14:59,730
+capitalization يعني حجم القيمة السوقية للشركة بحيث
+
+185
+00:14:59,730 --> 00:15:02,790
+أن هدول بيمثلوا السوق فبدل ما هم يقيصوا السوق من
+
+186
+00:15:02,790 --> 00:15:06,890
+خلال 3000 أو 4000 شركة فبيقيصوا السوق من قبل أفضل
+
+187
+00:15:06,890 --> 00:15:12,410
+500 شركة في السوقأو أكبر 500 شركة او أكبر 500 شركة
+
+188
+00:15:12,410 --> 00:15:16,670
+حسب القيمة السوقية فهم بيختاروا من ال 3000 هدول
+
+189
+00:15:16,670 --> 00:15:22,150
+بيختارونهم 500 شركة مثلا في ال Fotsi 100 اللي هو
+
+190
+00:15:22,150 --> 00:15:25,670
+جاي من London Stock Exchange London Stock Exchange
+
+191
+00:15:25,670 --> 00:15:30,910
+LSA هذا سوق لندن السوق لندن في 6000 و 10000 شركة
+
+192
+00:15:30,910 --> 00:15:38,520
+يعتبر هذا السوق من بمثل تقريباخمسة و عشرين في
+
+193
+00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:42,980
+المية من قيمة السوقية للعالم، تمام؟ سوق لندن، سوق
+
+194
+00:15:42,980 --> 00:15:49,060
+لندن هال .. ألاف الشركات هدول بدل ما احنا نروح
+
+195
+00:15:49,060 --> 00:15:53,600
+نمثل السوق كله بألاف الشركات فبروح بختاروا أفضل
+
+196
+00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:58,990
+لئة شركة وبالتالي سموه ال Fotsi 100فوتي one
+
+197
+00:15:58,990 --> 00:16:01,470
+hundred فوتي one hundred اللي هو financial time
+
+198
+00:16:01,470 --> 00:16:05,070
+stock exchange for one hundred companies فهم
+
+199
+00:16:05,070 --> 00:16:08,010
+بيروحوا بيشوفوا الخمس ألاف شركة بيختاروا أفضل مئة
+
+200
+00:16:08,010 --> 00:16:10,910
+شركة حسب القيمة السوقية و بيروحوا بيحكوا بيصيروا
+
+201
+00:16:10,910 --> 00:16:14,590
+يحكوا فقط على الفوتي one hundred إذا مثلا الفوتي
+
+202
+00:16:14,590 --> 00:16:18,890
+one hundred is includes the best one hundred
+
+203
+00:16:18,890 --> 00:16:22,130
+companies in the London Stock Exchange يعني بيضم
+
+204
+00:16:22,130 --> 00:16:26,250
+أفضل مئة شركة في سوق لندنإذا احنا بنحكي مثلا على
+
+205
+00:16:26,250 --> 00:16:30,930
+ال .. أمثلة كتير، في عندنا ال KAC 40 و في عندنا
+
+206
+00:16:30,930 --> 00:16:36,850
+Tokyo، سوق Tokyo، we have S&P 500، هذا سوق
+
+207
+00:16:36,850 --> 00:16:41,330
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، في عندنا استنبول،
+
+208
+00:16:41,330 --> 00:16:44,290
+استنبول، في عندنا استنبول كمان، عندهم تقريبا
+
+209
+00:16:44,290 --> 00:16:51,470
+مؤشرهم على معتقد بضم 40حوالي أربعين شركة حسب كل ال
+
+210
+00:16:51,470 --> 00:16:53,930
+regulations عندنا في سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية
+
+211
+00:16:53,930 --> 00:16:57,810
+لفترة متأخرة كان بيضم هذا السوق عشر شركات الآن
+
+212
+00:16:57,810 --> 00:17:01,510
+طبعا بيضم أكتر من عشر شركات كمؤشر as a index
+
+213
+00:17:06,510 --> 00:17:09,430
+الشركات الكبيرة نسميها في .. طبعا احنا بنحكي هنا
+
+214
+00:17:09,430 --> 00:17:13,490
+عن Dow Jones الشركات الكبيرة بيسموها blue chip ال
+
+215
+00:17:13,490 --> 00:17:17,050
+blue chip company blue chip اللي هو القطعة الزرقاء
+
+216
+00:17:17,050 --> 00:17:22,370
+ايه اجا القطعة الزرقاء ال blue chip اجت من طبعا
+
+217
+00:17:22,370 --> 00:17:25,570
+اجت من الأسف الشديد اجت من ألعاب ال gambling
+
+218
+00:17:28,210 --> 00:17:31,470
+المقامرة فالقطع الزرقاء هذه تعتبر أغلى قطعة
+
+219
+00:17:31,470 --> 00:17:34,370
+واحتمالات النجاح فيها احتمالات عالية جدا فهذه
+
+220
+00:17:34,370 --> 00:17:38,550
+بيسموها Plot Chip ف ال companies with a plot chip
+
+221
+00:17:38,550 --> 00:17:42,410
+يعني تكون هي plot chip it is should be considered
+
+222
+00:17:42,410 --> 00:17:45,910
+as one of the index member يعني تعتبر واحدة من
+
+223
+00:17:45,910 --> 00:17:53,230
+الشركات الممكن أن تكون في الشركات المساهمة في مؤشر
+
+224
+00:17:53,230 --> 00:17:59,160
+السوقthe question is how we can calculate the
+
+225
+00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:08,120
+index كيف احنا ممكن .. blue chip هي لما نيجي نقول
+
+226
+00:18:08,120 --> 00:18:14,060
+هاي البنات هدول في عندنا بنات متفوقات و في بنات
+
+227
+00:18:14,060 --> 00:18:18,720
+يعني متوسطات و في بنات عادية إذا احنا بنختار the
+
+228
+00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,700
+best ten students هدول بيسموهم بيسميهم the blue
+
+229
+00:18:22,700 --> 00:18:27,810
+chip studentإيش يعني blue chip student؟ يعني أفضل
+
+230
+00:18:27,810 --> 00:18:31,430
+الطلاب دول بيسموه blue chip فهذا مصطلح في ال
+
+231
+00:18:31,430 --> 00:18:34,810
+financial markets ال blue chip it means the best
+
+232
+00:18:34,810 --> 00:18:42,250
+okay فليش سموها blue chip لأنه في صلاة القمار في
+
+233
+00:18:42,250 --> 00:18:45,010
+عندنا قطعة .. قطعة لونها أصفر، قطعة لونها أحمر،
+
+234
+00:18:45,010 --> 00:18:48,810
+قطعة لونها أسود، قطعة لونها أزرق، فأغلى قطعة هي
+
+235
+00:18:48,810 --> 00:18:53,250
+القطعة الزرقاءو القطعة الزرقاء نفسها ال blue chip
+
+236
+00:18:53,250 --> 00:18:57,730
+بتكون the most expensive and the most probable to
+
+237
+00:18:57,730 --> 00:19:03,430
+win واحتماليات الربح تبقى هتكون أعلى comparing
+
+238
+00:19:03,430 --> 00:19:07,610
+or relative to the other chips مقارنة مع القطع
+
+239
+00:19:07,610 --> 00:19:11,090
+الأخرى
+
+240
+00:19:11,090 --> 00:19:17,220
+يعني لو أجينا احنا هقولنا the best studentare more
+
+241
+00:19:17,220 --> 00:19:20,660
+probable to finish their graduate on this year
+
+242
+00:19:20,660 --> 00:19:27,160
+يعني أكتر احتمال أن هم يخلصوا السنة هذه أو to pass
+
+243
+00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:32,100
+the exam easily أو يخلصوا الامتحان تبعهم بسهولة
+
+244
+00:19:32,100 --> 00:19:38,220
+فهذا المصطلح أتي من هنا اسمه blue chip okay the
+
+245
+00:19:38,220 --> 00:19:42,040
+question is how we can calculate or estimate the
+
+246
+00:19:45,570 --> 00:19:49,990
+the index كيف احنا ممكن نختار ال index there is
+
+247
+00:19:49,990 --> 00:19:53,130
+two different ways or two different methods to
+
+248
+00:19:53,130 --> 00:19:56,410
+calculate the index فينا طريقتين the first one is
+
+249
+00:19:56,410 --> 00:19:59,930
+the price weighted in average and the second is
+
+250
+00:19:59,930 --> 00:20:05,110
+the average the market value weighted index so the
+
+251
+00:20:05,110 --> 00:20:07,890
+first one is the price the second one is the
+
+252
+00:20:07,890 --> 00:20:14,090
+markets the market valueSo we have two different
+
+253
+00:20:14,090 --> 00:20:20,710
+types of .. of estimating the .. the index يعني زي
+
+254
+00:20:20,710 --> 00:20:25,730
+ما أنتوا بتسمعوا مثلا بالجزيرة أو بال CNBC أو in
+
+255
+00:20:25,730 --> 00:20:30,030
+CNN the index .. the market index for instance for
+
+256
+00:20:30,030 --> 00:20:36,670
+the FTSE 100 is increased by five pointsif we look
+
+257
+00:20:36,670 --> 00:20:40,450
+at the .. if you look at the google if you open
+
+258
+00:20:40,450 --> 00:20:44,110
+google just write the FTSE 100 or write Dow Jones
+
+259
+00:20:44,110 --> 00:20:49,990
+or S&P 500 so these indexes or indices represent a
+
+260
+00:20:49,990 --> 00:20:53,630
+particular financial markets it may increase by
+
+261
+00:20:53,630 --> 00:20:57,110
+points or decrease by points هي بتنخفض و بترتفع
+
+262
+00:20:57,110 --> 00:21:06,550
+حسب النقاط Dow Jones this is ..Dow Jones is the
+
+263
+00:21:06,550 --> 00:21:12,530
+first person back to 19s the early of 19s around
+
+264
+00:21:12,530 --> 00:21:18,650
+1905 سنة الف سمية و خمسة he suggest a theory which
+
+265
+00:21:18,650 --> 00:21:23,010
+is called Dow theoryاختراح نظرية سماها DAO theory
+
+266
+00:21:23,010 --> 00:21:29,690
+نظرية DAO and this DAO theory depends on the
+
+267
+00:21:29,690 --> 00:21:35,390
+assumption that the financial market is moved by
+
+268
+00:21:35,390 --> 00:21:40,350
+the behavioral financeيعني بتحركها ال behavioral
+
+269
+00:21:40,350 --> 00:21:43,970
+finance اللي هو السلوك المالي او the behavior of
+
+270
+00:21:43,970 --> 00:21:50,050
+investors او سلوك المستثمرين and this Dao هذا
+
+271
+00:21:50,050 --> 00:21:56,900
+الشخص اسمه Daohe was the first one to estimate the
+
+272
+00:21:56,900 --> 00:22:01,100
+market index هو كان أول واحد بيعمل estimation يعني
+
+273
+00:22:01,100 --> 00:22:05,060
+calculate the market index هو مؤشر السوق and after
+
+274
+00:22:05,060 --> 00:22:07,560
+that there are some other people they try to
+
+275
+00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:12,280
+update and to amend the calculations of .. of the
+
+276
+00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:17,640
+index حاولوا ي .. يغيروا في ال calculations لل ..
+
+277
+00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:23,080
+لل indexلأ just they .. they have little change
+
+278
+00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:27,640
+but the first one to coin the .. the concept of
+
+279
+00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:34,720
+index was Dow أول واحد أوجد فكرة ال index أو حسب
+
+280
+00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:39,640
+ال .. ال index هو .. هو Dow Jones في .. في نظرية
+
+281
+00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:45,560
+Dow سماها Dow theory okay this is why okay
+
+282
+00:22:48,590 --> 00:22:51,010
+let's see for instance how we calculate the ..
+
+283
+00:22:51,010 --> 00:22:57,930
+based on the price weighted in
+
+284
+00:22:57,930 --> 00:23:02,310
+price weighted .. ال price weighted يعني حسب السعر
+
+285
+00:23:02,310 --> 00:23:09,970
+المؤجح if we have two stock إذا كان عندي two
+
+286
+00:23:09,970 --> 00:23:11,630
+stocks سهمين
+
+287
+00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:21,140
+stock A and stock B يعني إذا كان ال index if the
+
+288
+00:23:21,140 --> 00:23:24,900
+index includes only two stocks يعني إذا بس بيشمل
+
+289
+00:23:24,900 --> 00:23:29,540
+سهمين A and B we should know the price of A and
+
+290
+00:23:29,540 --> 00:23:34,440
+the price of B لازم نعرف سعر A وسعر B according to
+
+291
+00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:38,820
+your example for instance the price of A is 25$
+
+292
+00:23:38,820 --> 00:23:45,300
+and the price of B is 100$this is from for
+
+293
+00:23:45,300 --> 00:23:47,500
+instance for today or for from the previous day
+
+294
+00:23:47,500 --> 00:23:52,340
+now we observe the changes in the price باللاحظ
+
+295
+00:23:52,340 --> 00:23:55,420
+التغير في الأسعار for instance if this is for
+
+296
+00:23:55,420 --> 00:24:00,700
+today today is zero and if we observe for tomorrow
+
+297
+00:24:01,710 --> 00:24:06,570
+and tomorrow is coming و بكرا إجا and the price is
+
+298
+00:24:06,570 --> 00:24:13,030
+like this 30 for A and 90 for B it means stock A
+
+299
+00:24:13,030 --> 00:24:19,110
+increased by 5 and stock B decreased by 90 if we
+
+300
+00:24:19,110 --> 00:24:23,610
+calculate the sum of this 125 if we calculate the
+
+301
+00:24:23,610 --> 00:24:29,830
+sum of this is 130 what you observe tomorrowwhen
+
+302
+00:24:29,830 --> 00:24:34,390
+tomorrow is coming the price is increased by five
+
+303
+00:24:34,390 --> 00:24:42,550
+dollar 120 okay sorry for this so the the price is
+
+304
+00:24:42,550 --> 00:24:48,210
+decreased by five dollar السعر انخفض بكم five
+
+305
+00:24:48,210 --> 00:24:51,170
+dollar as a percentage اذا احنا بنحسبه على
+
+306
+00:24:51,170 --> 00:24:56,630
+percentage so fivedivided by the original price
+
+307
+00:24:56,630 --> 00:25:01,290
+السعر الرئيسي اللي هو مية و خمسة و عشرين فبطلع
+
+308
+00:25:01,290 --> 00:25:05,650
+minus four percent you
+
+309
+00:25:05,650 --> 00:25:09,370
+just only observe the changes in the prices okay
+
+310
+00:25:09,370 --> 00:25:16,910
+so the difference from tomorrowregarding today is
+
+311
+00:25:16,910 --> 00:25:20,490
+the price decreased by minus five minus five is
+
+312
+00:25:20,490 --> 00:25:23,830
+divided by the original price which which was one
+
+313
+00:25:23,830 --> 00:25:28,350
+to five so minus five divided by one to five minus
+
+314
+00:25:28,350 --> 00:25:31,750
+four percent it means when you listen to الجزيرة
+
+315
+00:25:31,750 --> 00:25:35,930
+or you listen for CNBC they are saying that the
+
+316
+00:25:35,930 --> 00:25:40,890
+market index is decreased by four percent يعني
+
+317
+00:25:40,890 --> 00:25:48,370
+المؤشر انخفض four percentلكن هذا ليس بسيط كما
+
+318
+00:25:48,370 --> 00:25:53,930
+تعتقدين لأن هناك تطورات في الطريق أو في الأسلوب
+
+319
+00:25:53,930 --> 00:25:57,630
+كيف يقوموا بتخصيص اتجارات السوق ولكن في هذا
+
+320
+00:25:57,630 --> 00:26:01,610
+المستقبل أو في هذه القصة فقط لدينا تقريب كيف
+
+321
+00:26:01,610 --> 00:26:06,460
+يقوموا بتخصيص اتجارات السوقما تفكروش أنه هذا هو ال
+
+322
+00:26:06,460 --> 00:26:10,100
+.. هيك الطريقة النهائية يعني هذي the first time
+
+323
+00:26:10,100 --> 00:26:13,240
+they calculate أول مرة حسبوها بهذه الطريقة هذي
+
+324
+00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:18,940
+then they develop these calculations طوروا فيها ..
+
+325
+00:26:18,940 --> 00:26:21,560
+بقى this is the .. the main idea of how calculate
+
+326
+00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,420
+the market indices ما هو اسمه ال price weight is
+
+327
+00:26:24,420 --> 00:26:28,160
+different لأنه يساعد كل دمال الشركة بتطلع ال price
+
+328
+00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:32,520
+weight is because the index is built on the price
+
+329
+00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:39,600
+لأن طريقة الحسبة على السعر and not considering the
+
+330
+00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,260
+number of shares وماعتمدتش على number of shares
+
+331
+00:26:43,260 --> 00:26:48,280
+على عدد الأسهم just only focus on the price بس ركز
+
+332
+00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:53,480
+على ال price this
+
+333
+00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:57,980
+is the portfolio if it includes two stocks and if
+
+334
+00:26:57,980 --> 00:27:01,160
+the market includes two stocks and if we calculate
+
+335
+00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,710
+the indexin the same or in the similar way اذا
+
+336
+00:27:05,710 --> 00:27:11,210
+احنا حابين نحسب ال index بال similar way مؤشر look
+
+337
+00:27:11,210 --> 00:27:18,610
+at here we here we we use two stocks so we ignore
+
+338
+00:27:18,610 --> 00:27:22,710
+the average احنا جهلنا ال average so we amend the
+
+339
+00:27:22,710 --> 00:27:25,470
+average by using the index بس انه احنا بنعمل
+
+340
+00:27:25,470 --> 00:27:30,070
+amending بنعمل amending يعني يعني كأنه احنا قلنا
+
+341
+00:27:30,070 --> 00:27:34,550
+قداش انا بعت الطلابالفصل هذا العلامات الطلاب جمعنا
+
+342
+00:27:34,550 --> 00:27:40,460
+كل العلامات قلنا العلامات الفينطيب و الفاصل الماضي
+
+343
+00:27:40,460 --> 00:27:43,680
+كام؟ الف وتسعمية إذا فيه زيادة مية هاي الطريقة
+
+344
+00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,320
+الطريقة التانية لأ إحنا بنحسب .. بنقول قداش ال
+
+345
+00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:50,620
+average تبع الطلاب الفاصل الفاتر و كام ال average
+
+346
+00:27:50,620 --> 00:27:54,080
+تبع الطلاب الفاصل التاني وبالتالي لازم إحنا ن .. ن
+
+347
+00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:58,260
+.. نحسب خمسة و عشرين twenty five plus one hundred
+
+348
+00:27:58,260 --> 00:28:01,540
+divided by two why two because we only have two
+
+349
+00:28:01,540 --> 00:28:04,880
+companiesنستطيع أن نقلها إلى 3 إذا كان لدينا ثلاث
+
+350
+00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:10,740
+شركات، لذلك نستطيع أن نقلها إلى N باستخدام N كمية
+
+351
+00:28:10,740 --> 00:28:14,660
+الشركات نقلها
+
+352
+00:28:14,660 --> 00:28:22,540
+إلى 25 مرة و نقلها
+
+353
+00:28:22,540 --> 00:28:29,220
+إلى 2 مرة و نقلها إلى 2 مرةSo one two five divided
+
+354
+00:28:29,220 --> 00:28:34,180
+by two it is sixty two point five and this is
+
+355
+00:28:34,180 --> 00:28:39,720
+sixty why we divided by two because we only have
+
+356
+00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,000
+two companies if we have three we divided by three
+
+357
+00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:48,140
+if we have thirty we divided by thirty عدد الشركات
+
+358
+00:28:48,140 --> 00:28:51,060
+مش الأسهم not the number of shares be careful
+
+359
+00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:59,940
+yes two companies or two stocks to simplify it
+
+360
+00:28:59,940 --> 00:29:03,720
+يعني يا أما شركتين يا أما سهمين بس okay so we
+
+361
+00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,580
+ignoring the number of shares so far نتجاهل عدد
+
+362
+00:29:06,580 --> 00:29:10,320
+الأسهم لحد اللحظة هذه okay very simple
+
+363
+00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:17,800
+calculations طيب هلأ ستين minus sixty two point
+
+364
+00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:28,930
+five which is-2.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5
+
+365
+00:29:28,930 --> 00:29:34,970
+مقارنة بالتغيير
+
+366
+00:29:34,970 --> 00:29:39,010
+الأصلي
+
+367
+00:29:39,010 --> 00:29:41,750
+62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير
+
+368
+00:29:41,750 --> 00:29:41,910
+الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة
+
+369
+00:29:41,910 --> 00:29:41,910
+بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5
+
+370
+00:29:41,910 --> 00:29:41,910
+مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي
+
+371
+00:29:41,910 --> 00:29:42,110
+62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير
+
+372
+00:29:42,110 --> 00:29:43,410
+الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة
+
+373
+00:29:43,410 --> 00:29:50,370
+بالتغيير الأصلي 62.5 مقارنة
+
+374
+00:29:50,370 --> 00:29:51,870
+بالتغيير الأصل
+
+375
+00:29:55,300 --> 00:29:58,840
+هو يجب أن يكوين السعر ليس السعر بل السعر الوضعي
+
+376
+00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:04,020
+هذا
+
+377
+00:30:04,020 --> 00:30:10,180
+هو السعر الوضعي هذه الطريقة هي السعر الوضعي لذا
+
+378
+00:30:10,180 --> 00:30:15,840
+يمكنك تخطيط هذا على الميزانية تخطيطات بسيطة أو
+
+379
+00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:22,700
+تخطيطات بسيطة أو تخطيطات بسيطة اذا أعطيك مثلا30
+
+380
+00:30:22,700 --> 00:30:26,900
+شركات وانت فقط تقيمها بال 30 و ترى التغيير في
+
+381
+00:30:26,900 --> 00:30:34,500
+السعر على هذا الهدف على سبيل المثال S&P500 كما
+
+382
+00:30:34,500 --> 00:30:41,040
+أشرحت في الأول 5-10 دقيقة تحتوي على أكبر من 500
+
+383
+00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:45,760
+شركات في New York Stock ExchangeOkay the largest
+
+384
+00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,080
+the largest based on the market capitalization
+
+385
+00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,980
+what it means market capitalization القيمة السوقية
+
+386
+00:30:51,980 --> 00:30:56,340
+يعني حسب القيمة السوقية and the market
+
+387
+00:30:56,340 --> 00:30:58,880
+capitalization is available for the every
+
+388
+00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,760
+investors كل investor ممكن يحصل على market
+
+389
+00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:07,290
+capitalization and to calculate the indexلكن ال S
+
+390
+00:31:07,290 --> 00:31:14,090
+&B ليس قيمة مثل داو جونز، داو جونز قيمة حسب القيمة
+
+391
+00:31:14,090 --> 00:31:19,890
+ولكن ال S&B كما قلت قبل أننا لدينا اشياء مختلفة من
+
+392
+00:31:19,890 --> 00:31:24,610
+القيمة، الأول هو قيمة القيمة والثاني هو قيمة السوق
+
+393
+00:31:26,390 --> 00:31:29,710
+So the market value weighted طريقة احتساب ال value
+
+394
+00:31:29,710 --> 00:31:32,430
+weighted is little different than the price
+
+395
+00:31:32,430 --> 00:31:35,830
+weighted يعني بتختلف في شيء بسيط it just consider
+
+396
+00:31:35,830 --> 00:31:38,910
+the number of shares يعني بس بتاخد بعين الاعتبار
+
+397
+00:31:38,910 --> 00:31:44,050
+عدد الأسهم okay
+
+398
+00:31:44,050 --> 00:31:47,370
+the
+
+399
+00:31:47,370 --> 00:31:55,950
+market weighted go back to the go back
+
+400
+00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:04,320
+نعود لبيج 45
+
+401
+00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:09,060
+نعود
+
+402
+00:32:09,060 --> 00:32:16,280
+لبيج 45 تعود تعود عندما تذهب إلى المنزل تعود لبيج
+
+403
+00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:22,240
+45 في سبيل المثال 2.2 ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة
+
+404
+00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:22,300
+ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة ميزة
+
+405
+00:32:27,310 --> 00:32:31,710
+على سبيل المثال 2.2 هو السعر الوزراء الذي أشرحته
+
+406
+00:32:31,710 --> 00:32:39,630
+لك بنفسك تحاول تقرأ سبيل 2.3 وهو قيمة وزراء فقط
+
+407
+00:32:39,630 --> 00:32:44,590
+تضيف رقم الشركات وقرأها إذا لم تفهم في المجلس
+
+408
+00:32:44,590 --> 00:32:52,810
+القادم سأشرحك معلومات أكتر عن هذا قد
+
+409
+00:32:52,810 --> 00:32:59,000
+يكون لديك مشكلة في فهم قيمة السوقand this problem
+
+410
+00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:03,260
+may raise up because of the stock split you know
+
+411
+00:33:03,260 --> 00:33:07,240
+what it means stock split stock split stock split
+
+412
+00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:11,280
+اللي هو التوزيع أو بيسموها تجزئة السهم سمعتوا في
+
+413
+00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:15,760
+تجزئة السهم بالمحاسبة in accounting stock splits
+
+414
+00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:20,820
+بال accounting أو بال management stock splits ان
+
+415
+00:33:20,820 --> 00:33:23,700
+احنا ممكن يكون ال investors have one hundred
+
+416
+00:33:23,700 --> 00:33:28,690
+sharesand when the company do stock splits it
+
+417
+00:33:28,690 --> 00:33:35,850
+becomes like two hundreds stock splits اللي
+
+418
+00:33:35,850 --> 00:33:41,390
+هو تجديئة السهم الشركات بتلجأ لتجديئة السهم في بعض
+
+419
+00:33:41,390 --> 00:33:44,990
+الحالات ممكن يكون في زيادة في رأس المال عندهم so
+
+420
+00:33:44,990 --> 00:33:49,170
+they do stock splits بيعمل تجديئة للسهم so one
+
+421
+00:33:49,170 --> 00:33:55,670
+stock mayequal two stocks ممكن يساوي سهمين when
+
+422
+00:33:55,670 --> 00:33:58,810
+the company do stock splits لما الشركة تعمل stock
+
+423
+00:33:58,810 --> 00:34:02,850
+splits if you hold one hundred shares it becomes
+
+424
+00:34:02,850 --> 00:34:07,750
+two hundreds try to read around the stock splits
+
+425
+00:34:07,750 --> 00:34:11,470
+حاولوا تقرؤوا حوالين ال stock splits okay and next
+
+426
+00:34:11,470 --> 00:34:14,690
+meeting I will try to give you details حاولوا
+
+427
+00:34:14,690 --> 00:34:20,670
+تقرؤوا إيش معنا اسم ال stock splitsبالظبط اه لكن
+
+428
+00:34:20,670 --> 00:34:26,130
+بيصير ال market price متخفض اخرقوا
+
+429
+00:34:26,130 --> 00:34:28,290
+عشان المرة الجاية اعملكم more explanation about
+
+430
+00:34:28,290 --> 00:34:36,470
+this طيب I give you example about other indexes
+
+431
+00:34:36,470 --> 00:34:39,910
+like New York Stock Exchange like NASDAQ هذا مؤشر
+
+432
+00:34:39,910 --> 00:34:44,710
+الأسهم الصناعية Wilshire 5000's عندنا Nikkei تبع
+
+433
+00:34:44,710 --> 00:34:49,330
+اليابان و عندنا الفوتسيفوتسي one hundred سوق ال ..
+
+434
+00:34:49,330 --> 00:34:52,990
+لندن السوق ال exchange وعنا dags طبع ألمانيا وفي
+
+435
+00:34:52,990 --> 00:34:57,610
+عندنا hang sing هونج كونج هدول تعرفوا أن في مؤشرات
+
+436
+00:34:57,610 --> 00:35:00,690
+مش بس في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية في مؤشرات حتى
+
+437
+00:35:00,690 --> 00:35:04,390
+عندنا في سوق فلسطين ايه فيه مؤشر ايش بيسميه مؤشر
+
+438
+00:35:04,390 --> 00:35:09,630
+مؤشر القدس okay مؤشر السوق الفلسطيني اسمه مؤشر
+
+439
+00:35:09,630 --> 00:35:15,630
+القدس فكل سوق لازم يكون له مؤشر نجف
+
+440
+00:35:15,630 --> 00:35:16,270
+عند هذا الحد
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3514b975b028882aff7bb77b828f6e3bb77088fd
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2075 @@
+1
+00:00:22,270 --> 00:00:27,930
+Okay طبعا الأسبوع الفات حكينا عن اللي هو chapter
+
+2
+00:00:27,930 --> 00:00:33,250
+one، مظبوط؟ في حد يذكرني إيش الموضوع كان chapter 
+
+3
+00:00:33,250 --> 00:00:34,210
+one؟
+
+4
+00:00:38,850 --> 00:00:43,690
+Okay اللي هو investment environments يعني الـ الـ
+
+5
+00:00:43,690 --> 00:00:46,410
+.. ال chapter الفات احنا حكينا عن investment
+
+6
+00:00:46,410 --> 00:00:49,990
+environments اللي هو البيئة الاستثمارية وحكينا في 
+
+7
+00:00:49,990 --> 00:00:53,250
+البيئة الاستثمارية لازم نحكي الفرق بين الـ real
+
+8
+00:00:53,250 --> 00:00:57,030
+assets والـ financial assets وحكينا العلاقة بين
+
+9
+00:00:57,030 --> 00:00:59,770
+الـ financial markets والـ economy والعلاقة بين
+
+10
+00:00:59,770 --> 00:01:09,410
+السوق والمال والـ economy وحكينا عن الـ .. العائد 
+
+11
+00:01:09,410 --> 00:01:14,010
+المخاطر وحكينا عن كفاءة السوق هذه المواضيع ركزنا
+
+12
+00:01:14,010 --> 00:01:18,090
+عليها بالـ .. بالـ chapter one بناء على فهم كل 
+
+13
+00:01:18,090 --> 00:01:21,350
+chapter one في اللي هو الـ assignment اللي هو 
+
+14
+00:01:21,350 --> 00:01:23,690
+question one الـ question one هو اللي علاقة بالـ
+
+15
+00:01:23,690 --> 00:01:27,210
+chapter one خليني بس أعطيكم how to .. to handle 
+
+16
+00:01:27,210 --> 00:01:30,410
+question one السؤال بيحكي in the light of chapter
+
+17
+00:01:30,410 --> 00:01:34,250
+one اللي هو الـ investment environment describe the
+
+18
+00:01:34,250 --> 00:01:37,010
+investment environment in Palestine Authority area
+
+19
+00:01:37,010 --> 00:01:42,110
+حسب فهمكم للـ chapter one بدنا نطبق chapter one على
+
+20
+00:01:42,110 --> 00:01:47,230
+Palestine Authority Area يعني أخذنا احنا المواضيع
+
+21
+00:01:47,230 --> 00:01:50,630
+اللي حكينا فيها باجي بالـ Palestine Authority to 
+
+22
+00:01:50,630 --> 00:01:54,590
+discuss the investment environment أول شيء بنحكي
+
+23
+00:01:54,590 --> 00:01:58,130
+اللي هو السؤال الأول مرتبط فيها اللي هو الـ real
+
+24
+00:01:58,130 --> 00:02:01,380
+asset والـ financial asset بدنا نشوف إيش فيه real
+
+25
+00:02:01,380 --> 00:02:04,100
+assets متوفرة في مناطق السلطة الفلسطينية وشو في
+
+26
+00:02:04,100 --> 00:02:08,280
+عنده financial assets بدنا نعملهم listing ونشرح
+
+27
+00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,860
+اللي موجود بس اللي موجود ما عندناش علاقة باللي مش
+
+28
+00:02:10,860 --> 00:02:16,520
+موجود يعني شيء مثلا treasury bills مثلا مش موجودة
+
+29
+00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:20,300
+عندنا فما في داعي أنه أنا أحكي عنها okay يعني بدنا 
+
+30
+00:02:20,300 --> 00:02:24,900
+نعرف إيش الـ financial assets وإيش الـ real assets 
+
+31
+00:02:24,900 --> 00:02:28,040
+available in the Palestinian Authority هذا واحد
+
+32
+00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:33,430
+بعدين بدنا نعمل فرق بيناتهم from the Palestinian
+
+33
+00:02:33,430 --> 00:02:36,470
+point of view من وجه النظر الموجودة في الأراضي
+
+34
+00:02:36,470 --> 00:02:40,390
+الفلسطينية بعدين نحكي عن الـ characteristics تبعتهم
+
+35
+00:02:40,390 --> 00:02:44,250
+ونحكي عن الـ competition نحكي مثلا على الـ
+
+36
+00:02:44,250 --> 00:02:46,870
+efficiency هل السوق الفلسطيني efficient ولا مش 
+
+37
+00:02:46,870 --> 00:02:51,610
+efficient okay ونحكي على الـ risk and return هذا
+
+38
+00:02:51,610 --> 00:02:54,730
+المفروض احنا نحكي فيه بـ chapter one مش هيكون صعب
+
+39
+00:02:54,730 --> 00:02:58,870
+سهل بس بحتاج أن أنتم شوية تقرأوا في .. في هذا
+
+40
+00:02:58,870 --> 00:03:03,030
+الموضوع وإذا أنتم محتاجين .. محتاجين مساعدة أو 
+
+41
+00:03:03,030 --> 00:03:06,850
+more details في الساعات المكتبية ممكن تيجوا لأكثر
+
+42
+00:03:06,850 --> 00:03:12,750
+توضيح okay نرجع لـ chapter two الـ link بين chapter
+
+43
+00:03:12,750 --> 00:03:19,040
+one و chapter two أنه احنا بـ chapter one أخذنا أنه
+
+44
+00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:23,900
+financial assets are classified into classes and 
+
+45
+00:03:23,900 --> 00:03:27,080
+we give a brief about these classes حكينا إنه الـ
+
+46
+00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:31,980
+financial assets الأصول المالية لها classes يعني
+
+47
+00:03:31,980 --> 00:03:36,460
+عبارة عن families عبارة عن مجموعات فاحنا مهمتنا
+
+48
+00:03:36,460 --> 00:03:40,390
+هذه المجموعات نبدأ نفصل فيها في في chapter two يعني
+
+49
+00:03:40,390 --> 00:03:44,370
+chapter one احنا عطينا brief اختصار في chapter one
+
+50
+00:03:44,370 --> 00:03:51,210
+راح نروح بتفاصيل اللي هو الـ asset classes إذا احنا
+
+51
+00:03:51,210 --> 00:03:55,230
+فهمنا الـ asset classes بنقدر أن احنا نقول احنا
+
+52
+00:03:55,230 --> 00:03:58,970
+فهمنا كثير من أدوات الاستثمار وهذا كثير الفصل
+
+53
+00:03:58,970 --> 00:04:03,130
+بساعدكم كمان تستطيعوا تجاوبوا على اللي هو السؤال
+
+54
+00:04:03,130 --> 00:04:03,450
+الأول
+
+55
+00:04:06,310 --> 00:04:12,410
+Okay في حد عنده سؤال قال ما نبدأ في .. طيب نبدأ
+
+56
+00:04:12,410 --> 00:04:19,090
+بسم الله is on chapter two asset classes and 
+
+57
+00:04:19,090 --> 00:04:22,430
+financial instruments الـ asset classes اللي حكينا
+
+58
+00:04:22,430 --> 00:04:27,530
+عندهم اللي هو عند money market وعند الـ capital
+
+59
+00:04:27,530 --> 00:04:31,350
+market في عند الـ bonds في عند الـ equity okay هدول
+
+60
+00:04:31,350 --> 00:04:34,070
+هم الـ asset classes فاكرين المرة الفاترة لما حكينا
+
+61
+00:04:34,070 --> 00:04:34,570
+عن الـ ..
+
+62
+00:04:39,660 --> 00:04:47,480
+stocks وحكينا على الـ bonds okay فهذا بالأساس أننا
+
+63
+00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:54,720
+نقسم أصل classes لـ equity و debits أو stocks و
+
+64
+00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,540
+bonds هذه واحدة من الـ classifications في ناس
+
+65
+00:04:57,540 --> 00:05:02,480
+بيعملوا تقسيم آخر money markets و capital markets
+
+66
+00:05:06,060 --> 00:05:12,180
+السوق النقدي والسوق الرأسمالي طبعا أغلب التصنيفات
+
+67
+00:05:12,180 --> 00:05:15,080
+.. أغلب التصنيفات بتعتمد على الـ money market والـ
+
+68
+00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,020
+capital market واحنا هنروح نفصل في الـ money
+
+69
+00:05:18,020 --> 00:05:21,100
+market والـ capital market طبعا بالنسبة للـ stocks
+
+70
+00:05:21,100 --> 00:05:27,400
+والـ bonds هم بيقعوا تحت الـ capital market ليش
+
+71
+00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:30,040
+بيقعوا تحت الـ capital market لأنه long term هنأتي
+
+72
+00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:34,840
+نفصل واحدة واحدة okay نبدأ بأول واحدة 
+
+73
+00:05:40,270 --> 00:05:42,410
+الـ acid classes في عند الـ money markets
+
+74
+00:05:42,410 --> 00:05:46,130
+instruments في عندي أدوات مالية يتم تدولها في
+
+75
+00:05:46,130 --> 00:05:50,210
+السوق النقدي money market بيسموه سوق نقدي ليش
+
+76
+00:05:50,210 --> 00:05:54,450
+سميناها سوق نقدي لأن السوق قصير الأجل سوق إيش ماله؟
+
+77
+00:05:54,450 --> 00:05:58,270
+قصير الأجل لو مثلا معكم مية دولار رايحين تصرفوها
+
+78
+00:05:58,270 --> 00:06:03,630
+مقابل الشاكل تصرفوها على المكان فبيسميها ده سوق
+
+79
+00:06:03,630 --> 00:06:07,850
+ماله money market money market سوق نقدي تمام؟
+
+80
+00:06:10,490 --> 00:06:12,950
+وفيها أن الـ capital market instruments الـ capital
+
+81
+00:06:12,950 --> 00:06:17,930
+market instruments هو سوق طويل الأجل okay يعني بيمتد
+
+82
+00:06:17,930 --> 00:06:21,450
+الاستثمار فيه لأكثر من سنة الـ money market هو
+
+83
+00:06:21,450 --> 00:06:24,050
+استثمار لأقل من سنة الـ capital market بيكون
+
+84
+00:06:24,050 --> 00:06:27,530
+استثمار لأكثر من سنة الـ capital market بيشمل الـ
+
+85
+00:06:27,530 --> 00:06:29,770
+bonds الـ equity securities والـ derivative
+
+86
+00:06:29,770 --> 00:06:32,770
+securities طبعا احنا عطناكم brief على كل واحدة من
+
+87
+00:06:32,770 --> 00:06:38,540
+هدول طبعا هنروح بتفاصيل أكثر هيكون في الـ chapter Okay
+
+88
+00:06:38,540 --> 00:06:43,140
+كمان مرة يعني الـ money market هو سوق قصير الأجل okay
+
+89
+00:06:43,140 --> 00:06:47,740
+أقل من سنة الـ capital market هو سوق طويل الأجل وهو
+
+90
+00:06:47,740 --> 00:06:51,040
+أكبر من سنة إيش يعني أقل من سنة وأكبر من سنة يعني
+
+91
+00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,360
+إذا أنا بدي تمويل قصير الأجل بروح على الـ money market
+
+92
+00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,700
+إذا أنا بدي تمويل طويل الأجل بروح على الـ capital
+
+93
+00:06:57,700 --> 00:07:02,810
+market يعني بدي سندات لمدة عشر سنوات بروحش على الـ
+
+94
+00:07:02,810 --> 00:07:04,950
+.. على الـ .. على الـ money market بروح على الـ
+
+95
+00:07:04,950 --> 00:07:08,490
+capital market بدي أسهم طبعا الأسهم هي عبارة عن
+
+96
+00:07:08,490 --> 00:07:12,170
+أدوات ملكية طويلة الأجل بروح على الـ capital market
+
+97
+00:07:12,170 --> 00:07:16,670
+derivative securities قلنا إنه هي اشتقت من الـ ..
+
+98
+00:07:16,670 --> 00:07:23,690
+الـ .. من الـ capital market okay إذا في حد ما عندهوش
+
+99
+00:07:23,690 --> 00:07:25,990
+وضوح الـ money market والـ capital market إيش
+
+100
+00:07:25,990 --> 00:07:28,190
+الفرقات بيناتهم okay
+
+101
+00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:41,160
+the money markets sub sector of the fixed income
+
+102
+00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:45,100
+markets من أحد مميزات الـ money markets أنه هو
+
+103
+00:07:45,100 --> 00:07:51,420
+بيعطيني عائد ثابت أو دخل ثابت okay يعني احنا بندرج
+
+104
+00:07:51,420 --> 00:07:56,180
+العوائد اللي في الـ money market في عوائد ثابتة وإيش
+
+105
+00:07:56,180 --> 00:08:00,380
+كمان securities are short term قصيرة الأجل اللي هو 
+
+106
+00:08:00,380 --> 00:08:06,400
+حكيناها أقل من سنة طيب liquids سائلة إيش معناه
+
+107
+00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,220
+liquid؟ تحويلها لأموال نقدية سهولة تحويلها لأموال
+
+108
+00:08:09,220 --> 00:08:12,140
+نقدية بالضبط سهولة تحويلها لأموال نقدية يعني مثلا
+
+109
+00:08:12,140 --> 00:08:16,210
+لو أنت معك مية دولار بجابتك بتعاني لما تحوليها
+
+110
+00:08:16,210 --> 00:08:20,350
+لشكل نقدية بسرعة طب لو عندك وديعة في الـ bank برضه
+
+111
+00:08:20,350 --> 00:08:23,850
+سهل أن أنت تحوليها لـ cash لنقدية لو معك check
+
+112
+00:08:23,850 --> 00:08:28,590
+قصير الأجل check طبعا backed by the bank أنه مدعوم
+
+113
+00:08:28,590 --> 00:08:33,170
+ويله ضمانات سهل أن أنت تحوليه لنقدية okay هنأتي
+
+114
+00:08:33,170 --> 00:08:37,390
+برضه في تفاصيل low risk مخاطرة محافظة ما فيش فيها
+
+115
+00:08:37,390 --> 00:08:42,260
+مخاطر عالية and often have large denominations
+
+116
+00:08:42,260 --> 00:08:45,860
+large denominations يعني إلها مضاعفات كثير يعني
+
+117
+00:08:45,860 --> 00:08:48,840
+مثلا مية دولار ألف دولار عشر تلاف دولار وهكذا 
+
+118
+00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:56,040
+okay إذا كمان مرة الـ money market بتتميز إنه قصيرة
+
+119
+00:08:56,040 --> 00:09:00,380
+الأجال liquid low risk and often have large
+
+120
+00:09:00,380 --> 00:09:01,080
+denominations
+
+121
+00:09:03,730 --> 00:09:06,510
+money markets, voucher funds allow individual to
+
+122
+00:09:06,510 --> 00:09:09,470
+access the money markets الـ .. الكويس في الـ money 
+
+123
+00:09:09,470 --> 00:09:11,950
+markets because it deal with small amount of money
+
+124
+00:09:11,950 --> 00:09:15,610
+and short term so investors can access the voucher
+
+125
+00:09:15,610 --> 00:09:20,530
+funds يعني بيقدروا مثلا زي ما حكينا الـ chapter 
+
+126
+00:09:20,530 --> 00:09:23,950
+الفات .. chapter الفات أنه لو معاك 100 دولار بتقدر
+
+127
+00:09:23,950 --> 00:09:26,770
+تدخل في صناديق الاستثمار and you can easily 
+
+128
+00:09:26,770 --> 00:09:30,730
+liquidate at anytime يعني بنقدر نحولها لنقدية على
+
+129
+00:09:30,730 --> 00:09:34,930
+أي وجهة إحنا بنحتاجها فهذه برضه ال .. ال .. الكويس
+
+130
+00:09:34,930 --> 00:09:38,090
+بال money market أعطيكم مثال بسيط خلينا نفهم مثال
+
+131
+00:09:38,090 --> 00:09:41,270
+بسيط و نشوف كيف .. how we can use the money
+
+132
+00:09:41,270 --> 00:09:52,370
+markets كيف ممكن احنا نستخدم ال money markets لو
+
+133
+00:09:52,370 --> 00:09:59,430
+أجينا .. هذا عندنا مثال هذه ال assets وهذه ال
+
+134
+00:09:59,430 --> 00:10:08,870
+liabilities okay لو احنا حكينا عندي cash 300 300$
+
+135
+00:10:08,870 --> 00:10:16,010
+يعني عندي ال cash 300$ وعندي
+
+136
+00:10:16,010 --> 00:10:25,210
+ال liabilities short term liabilities 170
+
+137
+00:10:25,210 --> 00:10:28,830
+short 
+
+138
+00:10:28,830 --> 00:10:33,960
+term liabilities التزامات Okay التزامات قصيرة الأجل
+
+139
+00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:40,340
+مين بتطلعولي على ال cash و تطلعولي على ال short
+
+140
+00:10:40,340 --> 00:10:42,960
+term liabilities لو احنا بدنا نفترض بس هدول عندي
+
+141
+00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,080
+موجودين بال current assets يعني هنا عندي fixed
+
+142
+00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:53,920
+assets وعندي هنا اللي هو equity لنفترض
+
+143
+00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:58,320
+بس الحسابات الرئيسية الموجودة إيش بتلاحظوا ال cash
+
+144
+00:10:59,270 --> 00:11:02,330
+ليش العجز؟ ال cash تلاتمية دولار وال short
+
+145
+00:11:02,330 --> 00:11:06,830
+liabilities مية وسبعين يعني في فائض في فائض مش عجز
+
+146
+00:11:06,830 --> 00:11:11,550
+فائض كتير يعني أنا لو بدأت أحسب نسبة سيولة نسبة
+
+147
+00:11:11,550 --> 00:11:15,270
+سيولة عالية إذا أخذتوها من الإدارة المالية يعني
+
+148
+00:11:15,270 --> 00:11:18,770
+لو أنا بدأت أحسب نسبة سيولة بنحكي تلاتمية على مية
+
+149
+00:11:18,770 --> 00:11:25,330
+وسبعين صح؟ بتطلع عالية نسبة سيولتها طيب أمام هذه
+
+150
+00:11:25,330 --> 00:11:30,560
+الحالة مدام أنا عندي فائض نقدي يعني لو أنا بدأت أسد
+
+151
+00:11:30,560 --> 00:11:34,140
+الالتزامات بحتاج فقط مية وسبعين دولار عشان أسد
+
+152
+00:11:34,140 --> 00:11:38,060
+الالتزامات صح؟ وبزيد كام معايا؟ مية وثلاثين
+
+153
+00:11:38,060 --> 00:11:42,720
+دولار طب إحنا ليش إحنا بندوس استثمار؟ لماذا نخلي
+
+154
+00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:46,020
+تلاتمية دولار عندي cash وأنا فقط محتاج مية و
+
+155
+00:11:46,020 --> 00:11:50,320
+سبعين؟ زي ما هي الحالة موجودة هذه طب إيش ممكن
+
+156
+00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:55,580
+أسوي؟ أعمل استثمار استثمار قصير الأجل استثمار إيش؟
+
+157
+00:11:55,580 --> 00:12:06,040
+قصير الأجل مثلا باجي بحكي okay أنا بحتاج 170 بدل
+
+158
+00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:12,720
+ما أخلي 170 بخلي مثلا منهم 200 دولار هدول cash حتى
+
+159
+00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:16,480
+لو أنا احتجت أسد ال 170 بستطيع أسدها من وين؟ من
+
+160
+00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:21,440
+ال cash طب إيش ضال؟ 100 دولار ال 100 دولار بروح
+
+161
+00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:26,880
+مثلا ممكن أروح أضعها في بنك مثلا أعمل استثمار في
+
+162
+00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:31,760
+البنك الإسلامي مثلا لمدة ست شهور استثمار متخصص أو
+
+163
+00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:36,260
+أعمل مثلا وديعة أو CD في في البنك لمدة تلات شهور
+
+164
+00:12:36,260 --> 00:12:45,080
+okay مثلا deposit طبعا
+
+165
+00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:49,960
+اللي هو أفضل الصيغة الأولى لما كان عندي 300$ cash
+
+166
+00:12:51,270 --> 00:12:54,550
+ولا الصيغة الثانية لما كان عندي 200 دولار و 100 deposit
+
+167
+00:12:54,550 --> 00:13:00,390
+أيوه ال 100 دولار هاخد عليها إيش هاخد عليها ربح أو
+
+168
+00:13:00,390 --> 00:13:07,350
+عائد بينما ال cash العائد تبعه إيش zero فهذا السبب
+
+169
+00:13:07,350 --> 00:13:12,190
+أنه إحنا بندخل في ال money markets كم عامة هلأ
+
+170
+00:13:12,190 --> 00:13:16,550
+نرجع للأصل كان عندي 300 دولار صح؟
+
+171
+00:13:19,870 --> 00:13:23,550
+ال liabilities التزامات علينا هلأ بأسوأ الظروف لو
+
+172
+00:13:23,550 --> 00:13:26,390
+أنا بدأت أسد ال liabilities بحتاج مية وسبعين دولار
+
+173
+00:13:26,390 --> 00:13:32,350
+من الأصول المتداولة صح؟ صح مظبوط؟ مظبوط طيب إذا
+
+174
+00:13:32,350 --> 00:13:35,110
+أنا مية وسبعين دولار أخدتهم من التلاتمية تلاتمية
+
+175
+00:13:35,110 --> 00:13:40,790
+ناقص مية وسبعين كم؟ مية وثلاثين إذا أنا في عندي
+
+176
+00:13:40,790 --> 00:13:44,530
+زيادة مية وثلاثين دولار هدول المية وثلاثين دولار
+
+177
+00:13:44,530 --> 00:13:50,080
+أنا مش مستثمرهم to be in safe side خلينا بدل ما
+
+178
+00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:54,480
+نحفظ بمية وسبعين نحفظ بميتين مثلا هاي احتفظنا
+
+179
+00:13:54,480 --> 00:14:00,100
+بميتين والمية اللي ضالة أروح وين أسويها أوديها نعملها
+
+180
+00:14:00,100 --> 00:14:06,240
+investment إيش نعملها investment مثلا نروح نحطها
+
+181
+00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:09,220
+.. نحطها مثلا استثمار متخصص بالبنك الإسلامي و
+
+182
+00:14:09,220 --> 00:14:11,620
+نحكيله منه إحنا بدنا إياها استثمار لمدة تلات شهور
+
+183
+00:14:11,620 --> 00:14:16,470
+على مدة ست شهور Okay أو مثلا نحطها وديعة في ال bank
+
+184
+00:14:16,470 --> 00:14:20,430
+نحكيلهم هذه الوديعة لمدة تلت شهور أو ست شهور بحيث
+
+185
+00:14:20,430 --> 00:14:24,550
+لو إحنا احتجناها you can liquidate it easily أنه
+
+186
+00:14:24,550 --> 00:14:28,410
+إحنا نقدر نعملها تسيل ونقدر نبيعها طيب هلأ بأسوأ
+
+187
+00:14:28,410 --> 00:14:33,110
+الظروف لو إحنا احتجنا المية وسبعين بأسوأ الظروف
+
+188
+00:14:33,110 --> 00:14:38,850
+إيش هنسوي ال cash هدول هنغطي فيهم المية وسبعين
+
+189
+00:14:38,850 --> 00:14:43,110
+هيظل عندي كام؟ ثلاثين والمية دولار هذه اللي ال
+
+190
+00:14:43,110 --> 00:14:46,870
+deposit بعملها liquidation بطلع عندي مية وثلاثين
+
+191
+00:14:46,870 --> 00:14:50,790
+دولار وبالتالي أنا في الحالة هذه استفدت أنه أنا
+
+192
+00:14:50,790 --> 00:14:55,110
+غطيت السيولة غطيت short term liabilities وفي نفس
+
+193
+00:14:55,110 --> 00:15:00,230
+اللحظة أنا عملت investments okay هذا السبب اللي
+
+194
+00:15:00,230 --> 00:15:04,310
+بيخلنا ندخل في موضوع ال short term investments
+
+195
+00:15:04,310 --> 00:15:11,960
+يعني مثلا لو الواحد معاه مثلا ألف دولار، هذه الألف
+
+196
+00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:15,120
+دولار طول السنة بعمل حسب يقول أنا ماجددش مصاريف و
+
+197
+00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,900
+جامعة وإشي مثلا ست مائة دولار، بيضل أربعمائة
+
+198
+00:15:18,900 --> 00:15:23,460
+دولار هدول معاه زيادة، طب شو يسوي فيهم؟ هيعمل فيهم
+
+199
+00:15:23,460 --> 00:15:27,360
+short term investment استثمار قصير الأجل ممكن
+
+200
+00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,320
+يستثمر فيهم بأي من الأدوات اللي إحنا هنحكي فيها
+
+201
+00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:36,740
+okay هذا السبب الرئيسي اللي إحنا بندخل في short
+
+202
+00:15:36,740 --> 00:15:39,300
+term investments لما نحكي عن long term investments
+
+203
+00:15:39,300 --> 00:15:46,660
+هنحكي why we using long term investments okay طيب
+
+204
+00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:53,660
+بتتميز ال short term investment بتتميز أنه هي low
+
+205
+00:15:53,660 --> 00:15:58,900
+risk مخاطرها مخفضة يعني لو أنا هالوديعة هتحتاجتها
+
+206
+00:15:58,900 --> 00:16:04,040
+سهل جدا أن أنا أعملها liquidation صحيح ممكن أخسر
+
+207
+00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:10,280
+عمولات بسيطة بس بالأخير مش هيكون في عندي خسارة
+
+208
+00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:16,520
+طبعا
+
+209
+00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:21,140
+هنا إن ال short term investment or short term
+
+210
+00:16:21,140 --> 00:16:26,600
+classes في ال money market إحنا بنتعامل هدول أغلب
+
+211
+00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,500
+الاستثمارات في ال money market في الأسواق قصيرة
+
+212
+00:16:29,500 --> 00:16:33,740
+الأجل اللي هو repurchase agreements اتفاقية إعادة
+
+213
+00:16:33,740 --> 00:16:39,220
+الشراء okay repurchase agreements اتفاقية إعادة
+
+214
+00:16:39,220 --> 00:16:44,920
+الشراء بعدين a small denominations time deposit
+
+215
+00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:50,530
+ودائع قصيرة الأجل بمبالغ بسيطة large nomination time
+
+216
+00:16:50,530 --> 00:16:56,570
+deposits ودائع قصير الأجل لكن بمبالغ كبيرة treasury
+
+217
+00:16:56,570 --> 00:17:00,890
+bills ودولات خزينة commercial paper أوراق تجارية
+
+218
+00:17:00,890 --> 00:17:08,050
+saving deposits ودائع استثمارية أو ودائع الدخل و
+
+219
+00:17:08,050 --> 00:17:12,450
+آخر واحدة money market mutual funds اللي هو صندوق
+
+220
+00:17:12,450 --> 00:17:16,650
+استثمار قصير الأجل صندوق استثمار قصير الأجل يعني
+
+221
+00:17:16,650 --> 00:17:19,610
+مثلا صندوق استثمار قصير الأجل بتستثمر في ال .. في
+
+222
+00:17:19,610 --> 00:17:22,610
+العمل الصعب يعني بيعملوا صندوق استثمار زي المرة
+
+223
+00:17:22,610 --> 00:17:26,090
+الفايتات حكينا عليكم كل واحد بدفع 100 دولار وبيروح
+
+224
+00:17:26,090 --> 00:17:29,770
+بنستثمر في ال .. مثلا في الجنيه الإسترليني كل واحد
+
+225
+00:17:29,770 --> 00:17:32,490
+مثلا بدفع 100 دولار بنروح بنجمحهم كلهم مع بعض و
+
+226
+00:17:32,490 --> 00:17:36,350
+نروح نستثمر مثلا باليورو على أساس إنه ممكن اليورو
+
+227
+00:17:36,350 --> 00:17:40,770
+في المستقبل يرتفع فهذا بيسميها صناديق استثمار
+
+228
+00:17:40,770 --> 00:17:45,750
+قصيرة الأجل يعني قصيرة الأجل نقدر نعمل نبيع الاستثمار
+
+229
+00:17:45,750 --> 00:17:53,370
+تبعنا خلال فترة زمانية قصيرة okay يعني زي مثلا لو
+
+230
+00:17:53,370 --> 00:17:58,230
+أنتوا البنات دخلتوا بجمعيات جمعية مثلا لمدة تلت
+
+231
+00:17:58,230 --> 00:18:02,090
+شهور قصيرة الأجل لو دخل أربع وعشرين واحد بالجمعية
+
+232
+00:18:02,090 --> 00:18:05,350
+بتصير طويلة الأجل Okay بيصير طويلة الأجل فهذا الفرق
+
+233
+00:18:05,350 --> 00:18:12,390
+بين الطويلة الأجل و قصيرة الأجل طبعا .. كمان مرة
+
+234
+00:18:12,390 --> 00:18:16,820
+Repurchase agreements اتفاقية إعادة شراء small
+
+235
+00:18:16,820 --> 00:18:21,420
+denominations time deposits اللي هو ودائع قصيرة
+
+236
+00:18:21,420 --> 00:18:25,920
+الأجل بمبالغ صغيرة بعدين البعديها ودائع طويلة الأجل
+
+237
+00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,860
+بمبالغ كبيرة بعدين treasury bills وذنبات خزينة
+
+238
+00:18:29,860 --> 00:18:34,080
+commercial paper أوراق تجارية saving deposit ودائع
+
+239
+00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:38,040
+الاستثمارية أو ودائع الدخل money market mutual funds اللي هو صناديف
+
+240
+00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:43,120
+استثمار قصيرة الأجل هندخل في تفاصيل واحدة واحدة
+
+241
+00:18:44,530 --> 00:18:47,730
+treasury bills ال treasury bills هي أذونات الخزينة
+
+242
+00:18:47,730 --> 00:18:53,550
+هذه أذونات الخزينة يتم إصدارها من قبل الحكومة
+
+243
+00:18:53,550 --> 00:18:57,850
+بيسموها treasury bills ال treasury معناها خزينة
+
+244
+00:18:57,850 --> 00:19:07,910
+bills أذونات هذه أذونات الخزينة بتحتاجها
+
+245
+00:19:07,910 --> 00:19:15,100
+الحكومة للتمويل النشاطات قصيرة الأجل ممكن تتبهان
+
+246
+00:19:15,100 --> 00:19:20,300
+شوية ال treasury bills هي بتحتاج الحكومة عشان تمول
+
+247
+00:19:20,300 --> 00:19:23,920
+نشاطاتها قصيرة الأجل ممكن تأخذ ثلاث شهور، أربع
+
+248
+00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:28,560
+شهور، ست شهور، تسعة شهور لاستثمارات قصيرة الأجل
+
+249
+00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:32,240
+طبعا يتم إصدارها الحكومة لقوم الناس أو ال
+
+250
+00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:37,180
+companies بشراء هذه الأذونات الخزينة بتتميز low 
+
+251
+00:19:37,180 --> 00:19:42,750
+riskمخاطرها risk free أو نحكي أنه خالية من المخاطر
+
+252
+00:19:42,750 --> 00:19:47,930
+مش low risk كمان هي خالية من المخاطر و تصدر
+
+253
+00:19:47,930 --> 00:19:52,570
+بمضاعفات مثلا
+
+254
+00:19:52,570 --> 00:19:57,090
+ألف عشر تلاف و هكذا و تباع بخصم هذه ما عليهاش فائدة
+
+255
+00:19:57,090 --> 00:20:00,390
+إيش ما عليها تباع بخصم هنشوف كيف تباع بخصم
+
+256
+00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,380
+طبعا مش شرط بس الحكومة الأمريكية تصدر هذا النوع من
+
+257
+00:20:06,380 --> 00:20:13,000
+الأذنات أي حكومة .. أي حكومة ذات  اقتصادية قوية
+
+258
+00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:17,360
+طبعا؟ ذات  إيش؟ يعني في حكومات ما بيقدروش 
+
+259
+00:20:17,360 --> 00:20:20,880
+يعملوا treasury bills آه يعني بيكونوا ناس تعبانة 
+
+260
+00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:24,240
+شوية فما بيستطيعوا أن هم يصدروا treasury bills
+
+261
+00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:33,700
+الحكومة بدأت تكون ملتزمة أمام الجمهور بدفع قيمة
+
+262
+00:20:33,700 --> 00:20:36,980
+هذه ال treasury bills طيب متى تلجأ الحكومة لإصدار
+
+263
+00:20:36,980 --> 00:20:40,680
+ال treasury bills سؤال بسيط هيك لنشوف إمكانياتك
+
+264
+00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:46,460
+بالاقتصاد متى تحتاج الحكومة لل treasury bills؟ كيف 
+
+265
+00:20:46,460 --> 00:20:54,660
+يعني  بإنجليزية؟ ومتى بيصير؟ بإنجليزية؟ الحكومة 
+
+266
+00:20:54,660 --> 00:20:56,760
+متى بتكون بحتاجة فلوس؟
+
+267
+00:20:59,980 --> 00:21:06,120
+ماشي بياخدوا ضرائب؟ طيب ماشي بتمولوا من الضرائب؟
+
+268
+00:21:06,120 --> 00:21:14,540
+أيوا إذا كان عندك taxes ال taxes revenues ال
+
+269
+00:21:14,540 --> 00:21:24,380
+taxes is less than the governmental consumption the
+
+270
+00:21:24,380 --> 00:21:29,040
+governmental consumption فإذا الضرائب ما بتغطيش ال
+
+271
+00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,980
+governmental consumption بنحنا نحتاج نتدين الحكومة
+
+272
+00:21:31,980 --> 00:21:41,500
+بتحتاج تتدين okay لكن لما يكون العكس ال taxes is
+
+273
+00:21:41,500 --> 00:21:47,560
+greater than the governmental consumption يعني 
+
+274
+00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:52,340
+الإنفاق الحكومي في الحالة هذه احنا the government
+
+275
+00:21:52,340 --> 00:21:56,890
+is lending في الحالة الثانية ال government lend في
+
+276
+00:21:56,890 --> 00:22:00,750
+الحالة الأولى ب government borrow نرجعك أول مرة
+
+277
+00:22:00,750 --> 00:22:04,870
+إذا كانت الضرائب اللي بيحصلوها من الناس أعلى من
+
+278
+00:22:04,870 --> 00:22:07,410
+الإنفاقات معناه الكلام هيكون عندهم زيادة صح؟
+
+279
+00:22:07,410 --> 00:22:12,210
+surplus إذا كانت الضرائب أعلى من الإنفاقات في الحالة
+
+280
+00:22:12,210 --> 00:22:17,190
+هذا هيكون surplus صح؟ يعني فائض معناه الكلام
+
+281
+00:22:17,190 --> 00:22:20,210
+بيقدروا يعملوا lending lending يعني يقرضوا الناس
+
+282
+00:22:20,210 --> 00:22:26,050
+يعطوا الناس مصاري طيب لو كان العكس لو كان ال taxes
+
+283
+00:22:26,050 --> 00:22:29,930
+الضرائب ما بتغطيش ال consumption معنى الكلام أنه
+
+284
+00:22:29,930 --> 00:22:34,830
+هنا بيكون عندهم deficit اللي هو عجز في الحالة هذه
+
+285
+00:22:34,830 --> 00:22:41,890
+اللي ال government بدها تقرض إذا كان ال deficit
+
+286
+00:22:41,890 --> 00:22:46,630
+قصير 
+
+287
+00:22:46,630 --> 00:22:54,140
+فبنصدر treasury bills إذا كان العجز طويل الأجل
+
+288
+00:22:54,140 --> 00:22:59,500
+فبنصدر سندات حكومية okay هذا السبب بيخلي الحكومات
+
+289
+00:22:59,500 --> 00:23:06,180
+تلجأ لل treasury bills okay
+
+290
+00:23:06,180 --> 00:23:10,240
+يعني
+
+291
+00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:14,540
+الحكومة ما بتروحش عند ناس تقولهم please اعطوني مصاري
+
+292
+00:23:14,540 --> 00:23:18,860
+لما بيقولوا مابحتاجوا مصاري بصدروا treasury bills و
+
+293
+00:23:18,860 --> 00:23:21,500
+الناس بتروح بتشتري هذه ال treasury bills و بتدفع
+
+294
+00:23:21,500 --> 00:23:25,900
+للحكومة الفلوس و تباع ب discount هنشوف كيف تباع ب
+
+295
+00:23:25,900 --> 00:23:38,220
+discount تباع ب discount يعني تباع بخصم طبعا
+
+296
+00:23:38,220 --> 00:23:42,360
+لما بتباع بخصم لما تقرض في السوق المالي في عندنا
+
+297
+00:23:42,360 --> 00:23:50,730
+bid price و ask price سعر شراء و سعر بيع bid و ask
+
+298
+00:23:50,730 --> 00:23:57,970
+bid و ask bid و ask يعني سعر بيع و سعر شراء و
+
+299
+00:23:57,970 --> 00:24:04,010
+هناخد مثال مع بعض نشوف ال bid و ال ask عندكوا في
+
+300
+00:24:04,010 --> 00:24:11,750
+صفحة عطيني اللي .. أو سمحت لي في صفحة تسعة و عشرين
+
+301
+00:24:12,780 --> 00:24:19,960
+في عندكم اللي هو figure 2.1 figure 2.1 في صفحة 29
+
+302
+00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:25,480
+اتفتحتوا صفحة 29؟ في صفحة 29 في عندنا ال treasury
+
+303
+00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,260
+bills زي ما أنتم شايفين هان treasury bills okay
+
+304
+00:24:28,260 --> 00:24:34,720
+في عندنا ال maturity ال maturity يعني فترة
+
+305
+00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:39,960
+الاستحقاق متى يتم استحقاق أذن الخزينة بعدين عندنا 
+
+306
+00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:44,840
+ال bid price سعر شراء أو سعر العرض و ال ask price
+
+307
+00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:52,560
+سعر الطلب it changed مكتوب CHG و ال ask yield
+
+308
+00:24:52,560 --> 00:25:00,580
+اللي هو العائد على الشراء لو أجينا ناخذ أول أذن 
+
+309
+00:25:00,580 --> 00:25:08,320
+الخزينة هنشوفه احنا .. نشوفه مع بعض في chapter ..
+
+310
+00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,340
+chapter two
+
+311
+00:25:21,530 --> 00:25:35,010
+لو شوف .. روحنا على صفحة 29 هذه صفحة 29 okay الكل
+
+312
+00:25:35,010 --> 00:25:40,890
+شايف هيك؟ طبعا هذا هي .. في سؤال هيجي عليه how ..
+
+313
+00:25:40,890 --> 00:25:43,410
+how to read the financial data كيف نقرأ البيانات
+
+314
+00:25:43,410 --> 00:25:48,470
+نتطلع على treasury bills هذا
+
+315
+00:25:48,470 --> 00:25:55,100
+ال maturity متى يستحق؟ بيستحق ب 22 أكتوبر 2009 okay
+
+316
+00:25:55,100 --> 00:26:02,120
+days to maturity كم متبقي لإنه ينتهي؟ طلع و قرأه
+
+317
+00:26:02,120 --> 00:26:09,460
+لها eight days طيب ال bid price 0055
+
+318
+00:26:09,460 --> 00:26:16,420
+هذه percentage هذه نسبة مئوية يعني
+
+319
+00:26:16,420 --> 00:26:23,250
+معنى الكلام أنه يشتري .. ال customer .. ال investor
+
+320
+00:26:23,250 --> 00:26:29,930
+بيشتري هان و ببيع هان okay يشتري و هنبيع .. هنيجي
+
+321
+00:26:29,930 --> 00:26:36,770
+ناخد تفاصيل طيب change .. unchanged يعني من آخر
+
+322
+00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,680
+حركة صارت على البيع و الشراء ما صار تغيير يعني هذا
+
+323
+00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:45,460
+سعر اليوم الماضي ما صار تغيير لكن لو لاحظنا في ال
+
+324
+00:26:45,460 --> 00:26:47,260
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+325
+00:26:47,260 --> 00:26:47,600
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+326
+00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:47,640
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+327
+00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:48,120
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+328
+00:26:48,120 --> 00:26:48,720
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+329
+00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:49,220
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+330
+00:26:49,220 --> 00:26:52,400
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+331
+00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:52,900
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+332
+00:26:52,900 --> 00:26:58,400
+.. ال .. ال ..
+
+333
+00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,440
+ال
+
+334
+00:27:03,020 --> 00:27:08,540
+آخر حركة يعني مثلا لو أنا بدأت أقول أنه اليوم 22
+
+335
+00:27:08,540 --> 00:27:12,140
+أكتوبر 21 أكتوبر اللي هو اليوم قبل ما صار تغيير
+
+336
+00:27:12,140 --> 00:27:18,620
+فضلوا الأسعار no change, unchanged يعني ما فيش تغيير
+
+337
+00:27:18,620 --> 00:27:24,940
+هنا طيب 
+
+338
+00:27:24,940 --> 00:27:29,560
+احنا بدأنا نحسب كيف يتم بيع أذن الخزينة
+
+339
+00:27:32,180 --> 00:27:41,900
+لنفترض أن احنا قدر الخزينة زي ما أنتم شايفين لو
+
+340
+00:27:41,900 --> 00:27:44,640
+طلعنا في ال phase 2 yields in figure 2-1 are
+
+341
+00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:50,160
+reported using the bank discount نطلع
+
+342
+00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:50,700
+على المثال
+
+343
+00:27:54,030 --> 00:27:58,750
+نتطلع على اللي عندكم في الكتاب في واحد منهم is
+
+344
+00:27:58,750 --> 00:28:02,490
+highlighted شايفين highlighted اللي هو احنا بناخد
+
+345
+00:28:02,490 --> 00:28:05,570
+مثالنا عليه موجود عندكم بالكتاب highlighted okay
+
+346
+00:28:05,570 --> 00:28:09,770
+اللي هو عندنا November تسعة عشر تسعة ستة و تلاتين
+
+347
+00:28:09,770 --> 00:28:13,990
+يعني المتبقي له ستة و تلاتين يوم okay و ال bid
+
+348
+00:28:13,990 --> 00:28:16,950
+price و ال ask price و هذا ما صار عليه unchanged
+
+349
+00:28:16,950 --> 00:28:22,490
+ما صار عليه تغيير فمثالنا هيكون على هذا ال هذا ال
+
+350
+00:28:22,490 --> 00:28:27,700
+treasury bills آه how to read اللي هو احنا كيف نقرأ
+
+351
+00:28:27,700 --> 00:28:32,620
+البيانات هذه يعني نرجعه كم مرة November تسعة عشر
+
+352
+00:28:32,620 --> 00:28:38,400
+تسعة okay عندنا ال maturity ستة و تلاتين يوم
+
+353
+00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:46,140
+maturity وعندنا ال bid price zero
+
+354
+00:28:46,140 --> 00:28:49,720
+five five وعندنا ال ask
+
+355
+00:28:55,140 --> 00:29:05,840
+وعندنا zero four three طيب ال
+
+356
+00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:09,480
+ask bid okay
+
+357
+00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:17,460
+okay
+
+358
+00:29:17,460 --> 00:29:21,860
+عندنا ال bid zero
+
+359
+00:29:21,860 --> 00:29:31,030
+five و zero four3 okay الكل معناه هيك طيب هذه 0.5
+
+360
+00:29:31,030 --> 00:29:36,450
+إيش معناها هذه نسبة الخصم اكتبوا عليها نسبة إيش ال
+
+361
+00:29:36,450 --> 00:29:44,050
+discount rate نسبة الخصم نسبة
+
+362
+00:29:44,050 --> 00:29:53,130
+خصم okay و الثانية برضه نسبة خصم لو أنا عند مستثمر
+
+363
+00:29:53,130 --> 00:29:59,040
+إيه هيشتري مستثمر بدّه يشتري السؤال الأول على أي
+
+364
+00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:06,160
+سعر بدّه يشتري فكروا فيها و اعطوني جواب لو في
+
+365
+00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:13,260
+مستثمر بدّه يشتري على أي سعر بدّه يشتري ال
+
+366
+00:30:13,260 --> 00:30:21,400
+ask إذا
+
+367
+00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,960
+بدّه يشتري على هذا السعر في في السوق المالي زي ما
+
+368
+00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:30,860
+احنا شرحنا المرة الفاتت في طرفين في السوق في ال
+
+369
+00:30:30,860 --> 00:30:35,200
+investors و
+
+370
+00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:40,280
+في ال dealer انتبهوا 
+
+371
+00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:44,340
+معناها في عندنا ال investor و في عندنا مين ال dealer
+
+372
+00:30:44,340 --> 00:30:47,060
+ال dealer معناه الوسيط لما احنا شرحنا ال chapter
+
+373
+00:30:47,060 --> 00:30:51,240
+فات أنه ما بيصيرش أن احنا واحد يروح to access
+
+374
+00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,700
+directly the financial market لازم to go through
+
+375
+00:30:53,700 --> 00:30:56,940
+the financial intermediaries لازم يروح من خلال 
+
+376
+00:30:56,940 --> 00:31:03,000
+الوسطاء الماليين طيب إذا هذا السعر مين اللي بيعرضه؟
+
+377
+00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:07,760
+إنه واحد من الـ investor ولا الـ dealer؟ لأ هذا الـ
+
+378
+00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:08,040
+dealer
+
+379
+00:31:11,350 --> 00:31:15,630
+إذا الـ dealer offer this price بيعرض هذا السعر
+
+380
+00:31:15,630 --> 00:31:19,650
+طبعًا الـ investor له عينين and he is observing this
+
+381
+00:31:19,650 --> 00:31:25,250
+price هو جاي بشوفها الأسعار طبعًا بشتري على هذا
+
+382
+00:31:25,250 --> 00:31:35,370
+السعر okay buy و sell على هذا السعر طبعًا هذا السعر
+
+383
+00:31:35,370 --> 00:31:39,710
+هذا اسمها نسبة خصم وهذا اسمها نسبة خصم كيف نحولها
+
+384
+00:31:39,710 --> 00:31:40,110
+لسعر
+
+385
+00:31:44,330 --> 00:31:48,310
+100% من اللي حضر بيعرف كيف إن احنا نحضر أو نحول من
+
+386
+00:31:48,310 --> 00:31:59,110
+النسبة هذه إلى سعر okay طبعًا،
+
+387
+00:31:59,110 --> 00:32:08,790
+قد إيش متبقي؟ قد إيش متبقي؟ طيب خلصنا بعدين
+
+388
+00:32:08,790 --> 00:32:16,230
+بتعرف تحلّي؟ هل في حد بيعرف يحلّها بالدولار؟ طيب خذوا
+
+389
+00:32:16,230 --> 00:32:20,790
+دقيقتين أو ثلاث دقائق لحالكم جربوا لحالكم لحالكم
+
+390
+00:32:20,790 --> 00:32:27,510
+جربوا طبعًا أنا هحله بالآخر عشان أساعدكم الـ bar
+
+391
+00:32:27,510 --> 00:32:32,610
+value لهذا الـ bonds لهذا الـ treasure bills القيمة
+
+392
+00:32:32,610 --> 00:32:38,110
+الإسمية عشر آلاف دولار القيمة
+
+393
+00:32:38,110 --> 00:32:42,080
+الإسمية عشر آلاف دولار أعطيتكم الـ bid و أعطيتكم
+
+394
+00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:46,320
+الـ ask بدي تعرفولي سعر the price of ask and the
+
+395
+00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:52,180
+price of bid يعني how much the investor will buy
+
+396
+00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,940
+and how much the investor will sell يعني لو
+
+397
+00:32:55,940 --> 00:32:59,500
+المستثمر بده يشتري بقد إيش ولو بده يبيع بقد إيش
+
+398
+00:32:59,500 --> 00:33:03,200
+يعني كده بده يدفع دولارات لأن هذه محطوطة في
+
+399
+00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:07,680
+السوق المالي محطوطة إياها نسب فعشان هيك لما أنتم
+
+400
+00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:11,100
+بتشوفوا المشروع الإخبارية بتشوفوا نسب بتستغربوا إن
+
+401
+00:33:11,100 --> 00:33:18,980
+هذه 0.5% وهذه نسب مالية وليس رقم خذوا
+
+402
+00:33:18,980 --> 00:33:22,860
+ثلاث دقائق عشان تعرفوا كيف ممكن هذا تنحسب okay
+
+403
+00:33:26,060 --> 00:33:28,320
+ممكن تشتغلوا as a groups كمجموعات
+
+404
+00:33:56,350 --> 00:34:02,690
+طيب يعني في مجموعة حلقة صح؟ لأ صح بين بيه أجملت
+
+405
+00:34:02,690 --> 00:34:06,470
+براتي حلوة؟ هم مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا
+
+406
+00:34:06,470 --> 00:34:11,010
+مش مدربين احنا مش مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين
+
+407
+00:34:11,010 --> 00:34:11,350
+احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين
+
+408
+00:34:11,350 --> 00:34:11,930
+احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين
+
+409
+00:34:11,930 --> 00:34:18,530
+احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا
+
+410
+00:34:18,530 --> 00:34:28,790
+مدربين احنا مدربين احنا م
+
+411
+00:34:29,890 --> 00:34:33,750
+احنا عندنا حلقة سعرين اللي هو السعر اللي بده يبيع
+
+412
+00:34:33,750 --> 00:34:38,130
+عليه الديلار اللي هو الـ bed اللي هو سعر الـ bed
+
+413
+00:34:38,130 --> 00:34:42,670
+فاحنا بما إنه نسبة خصم فأول حاجة بدنا نشوف اللي هو
+
+414
+00:34:42,670 --> 00:34:50,170
+الاستحقاق الـ maturity بدنا نقسمها على اللي هو عدد
+
+415
+00:34:50,170 --> 00:34:54,670
+أيام السنة اللي هو 360 وبعدين نضربها
+
+416
+00:35:10,900 --> 00:35:13,340
+هنضربها في الساق اللي هو اللي بديش عليا البان
+
+417
+00:35:20,630 --> 00:35:26,530
+بعدين الـ .. الـ .. الراحة مابي بيطلع؟ اه
+
+418
+00:35:26,530 --> 00:35:41,490
+لو خمسة لرحالة؟
+
+419
+00:35:41,490 --> 00:35:52,260
+لا مش لأ حبت في الـ ..بعدي هنا .. بيجيب
+
+420
+00:35:52,260 --> 00:35:56,660
+هذا .. بحب
+
+421
+00:35:56,660 --> 00:36:01,260
+شيء .. هو .. هيطلع رسمياسي
+
+422
+00:36:16,650 --> 00:36:20,530
+أخذنا بالاعتبار الـ maturity date إذا هذا الـ
+
+423
+00:36:20,530 --> 00:36:27,010
+maturity ضربناه في النسبة المقوية اللي هو الـ bid
+
+424
+00:36:27,010 --> 00:36:35,930
+طلعنا الرقم طبعًا هذا أول خطوة بعدين نقول عشر آلاف
+
+425
+00:36:35,930 --> 00:36:41,010
+ناقص نسبة الخاصة أو قيمة الخاصة تطلع هذا الرقم إذا
+
+426
+00:36:41,010 --> 00:36:48,990
+هذا الـ bar value معقس الخصم قيمة الخصم أو الـ
+
+427
+00:36:48,990 --> 00:36:57,830
+discount الـ bar value ناقص الـ discount بيطلع
+
+428
+00:36:57,830 --> 00:37:05,570
+السعر هذه طريقة للحل طريقة ثانية اللي هو الـ bar
+
+429
+00:37:05,570 --> 00:37:11,230
+value هي طريقة ثانية للحل bar value ضرب نفتح
+
+430
+00:37:11,230 --> 00:37:21,930
+قوس واحد ناقص نسبة الخصم discount ضرب
+
+431
+00:37:21,930 --> 00:37:31,370
+الـ maturity ضرب الـ maturity الـ 
+
+432
+00:37:31,370 --> 00:37:39,490
+bar value بتساوي كم؟ عشر آلاف ضرب واحد ناقص
+
+433
+00:37:41,890 --> 00:37:49,070
+discount rates اللي هو عندنا 0.05
+
+434
+00:37:49,070 --> 00:37:55,290
+ضرب 36
+
+435
+00:37:55,290 --> 00:38:03,030
+على 360 طبعًا خذوا بالكم هادي عملية لحال ضرب هذه
+
+436
+00:38:03,030 --> 00:38:07,370
+يلا اعملوها بسرعة طبقوا هذه عشان هأطلب منكم
+
+437
+00:38:07,370 --> 00:38:12,300
+تعملوا العكس هذا الـ bid بدنا نعمل الـ ask خلصوا الـ
+
+438
+00:38:12,300 --> 00:38:17,320
+bid وطلعولي جواب افهموا كمان مرة الـ bar value عشر
+
+439
+00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:23,140
+آلاف ضرب واحد ناقص الـ ask الـ bid ضرب السبت و
+
+440
+00:38:23,140 --> 00:38:26,640
+30 الـ maturity مقسوم على 360 طيب
+
+441
+00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:35,480
+هلأ بنعمل إيش؟ نعمل الـ ask في حد بيعمل الـ ask في
+
+442
+00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:40,680
+حد بيطبق الـ ask نفس الشيء بس بتأكد إن فاهمين مين
+
+443
+00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:44,320
+بيعمل الـ ask؟ ع الورقة عندكم بس يعملوا الـ ask يلا
+
+444
+00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:48,100
+عملولي الـ .. ع الورقة الـ ask وطلعولي سعر الـ ask
+
+445
+00:38:48,100 --> 00:38:51,500
+كلام
+
+446
+00:38:51,500 --> 00:38:56,200
+هذا نظري منيح بس لما ما بنطبق بنبطل نعرف
+
+447
+00:38:56,200 --> 00:39:03,800
+اشتغلولي ع الـ ask طيب homework في البيت مطلوب
+
+448
+00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:04,640
+إنكم إيش تسووا؟
+
+449
+00:39:11,210 --> 00:39:17,710
+في البيت بدّكم
+
+450
+00:39:17,710 --> 00:39:24,750
+تحولوا الـ bid و الـ ask لأسعار شايفين
+
+451
+00:39:24,750 --> 00:39:27,850
+الـ bid و الـ ask هدول .. هدول الـ bid و الـ ask هما
+
+452
+00:39:27,850 --> 00:39:33,330
+discount rates بدنا إياهم prices أسعار نفس الطريقة
+
+453
+00:39:33,330 --> 00:39:38,070
+نفس الطريقة بدي أنا مثلًا الـ maturity تبقى 8
+
+454
+00:39:38,070 --> 00:39:41,700
+تحكي لي هذا سعر كذا وهذا سعر كذا الـ mature تبقى 15
+
+455
+00:39:41,700 --> 00:39:45,320
+سعر كذا وسعر كذا و29 تعملوا الـ table وتجيبولي
+
+456
+00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:48,220
+إياها المرة الجاية عشان أتأكد إنّه على القانون اللي
+
+457
+00:39:48,220 --> 00:39:55,660
+أعطيتكم إياه okay لكل
+
+458
+00:39:55,660 --> 00:40:00,960
+الجدول؟ في حد عنده سؤال؟ في حد مش فاهم كيف؟ اه
+
+459
+00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,320
+فضلي أنا مش فاهمة إن الواحد ناقص الـ discount ليش هو
+
+460
+00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:06,080
+الـ discount يعني في الحالة اللي لازم نعمل الـ discount
+
+461
+00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:12,280
+ليش ضروري وليش ممكن يبقى عاملها هي رياضيًا يعني احنا
+
+462
+00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:20,500
+لما نيجي إنّه discount ليش واحد ناقص؟ لأن لو
+
+463
+00:40:20,500 --> 00:40:31,240
+رياضياً شوفي رياضيًا إيش بيصير معنا تبها بس يعني
+
+464
+00:40:31,240 --> 00:40:37,880
+إيش صارت عشر آلاف ضرب واحد ليش عشر آلاف okay ناقص
+
+465
+00:40:38,720 --> 00:40:48,560
+نسبة الخصم okay عشر آلاف ناقص النسبة الخاصة okay
+
+466
+00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:53,360
+بس هذه نسبة الخاصة مضروبة في إيش؟ 36 3
+
+467
+00:40:53,360 --> 00:41:02,240
+ونية و60 هذه هي نفسها تمام؟ لأ
+
+468
+00:41:02,240 --> 00:41:04,000
+العشر آلاف هذه الـ bar value ثابتة
+
+469
+00:41:07,700 --> 00:41:10,980
+بعطيكم إياها معطى bar value معروف إنّ الـ treasury
+
+470
+00:41:10,980 --> 00:41:16,140
+bills قيمته الإسمية 10,000$ وحتى لو مش معطيكم
+
+471
+00:41:16,140 --> 00:41:22,200
+إياها قيمة الـ bar value للـ treasury bills هي 10
+
+472
+00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:29,620
+,000$ مرة جبنا امتحان للطلاب الفاصل فات وما أعطيناهمْش
+
+473
+00:41:29,620 --> 00:41:35,020
+الـ bar value تبع الـ bond فأنا .. فإحنا هَنطيلهم عشان
+
+474
+00:41:35,020 --> 00:41:39,410
+أنتم ما تسألوش في الامتحان ليش؟  القيمة الإسمية
+
+475
+00:41:39,410 --> 00:41:46,050
+للسند هي ألف دولار السند الـ bond إلا إذا كان غير
+
+476
+00:41:46,050 --> 00:41:50,070
+هيك يعني لو أنا حكيت لكم calculate the bond price
+
+477
+00:41:50,070 --> 00:41:54,510
+خلاص اعتبروا إنّه الـ bar value إيش؟ ألف دولار طيب هل
+
+478
+00:41:54,510 --> 00:41:59,290
+الـ treasury bills هي معروفة عشر آلاف إلا إذا كان
+
+479
+00:41:59,290 --> 00:42:03,490
+غير هيك الـ
+
+480
+00:42:03,490 --> 00:42:06,230
+bar value تبع الـ treasury bills عشر آلاف دولار
+
+481
+00:42:07,100 --> 00:42:10,780
+القيمة الإسمية للـ .. للـ treasury bills لأذونات
+
+482
+00:42:10,780 --> 00:42:15,660
+الخزينة عشر آلاف دولار إلا إذا ذكرنا غير ذلك يعني
+
+483
+00:42:15,660 --> 00:42:20,320
+إلا قلنا لكم مثلًا مئة ألف إذا ما ذكرناش في الامتحان
+
+484
+00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,980
+ما كان أو خاص يتعامل معها كأنها إيش؟ عشر آلاف دولار
+
+485
+00:42:23,980 --> 00:42:29,880
+حتى لو ما كانتش معطاة فما تسألوش في الامتحان إيش الـ
+
+486
+00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:32,860
+treasury bills برضه لأنّه already هي عشر آلاف دولار
+
+487
+00:42:32,860 --> 00:42:35,740
+فهذا بيكشف إن الطلاب اللي بيحضروا الطلاب اللي
+
+488
+00:42:35,740 --> 00:42:36,240
+بيحضروش
+
+489
+00:42:42,230 --> 00:42:48,490
+هيشتري فيه بعد ما .. بعد ما نحط السعرين انتبهوا يا
+
+490
+00:42:48,490 --> 00:42:51,590
+بنات بعد ما نحط السعرين عشان تفهموا سعر الشراء
+
+491
+00:42:51,590 --> 00:42:58,510
+والبيع بنحط السعرين أمام بعض لنفترض لو كان سعر 9
+
+492
+00:42:58,510 --> 00:43:05,450
+.10 وسعر 9.05 الـ investor على وين بيشتري؟
+
+493
+00:43:08,270 --> 00:43:12,510
+ع بشتري أهالي ولا بشتري هذا؟ على هذا بيشتري؟ لأ
+
+494
+00:43:12,510 --> 00:43:15,710
+أنا ما أعطيتهوش لأصب ولا بدّه هيك محطوطين أسعار
+
+495
+00:43:15,710 --> 00:43:22,210
+هيك 9.10 بدي أشتري يلا
+
+496
+00:43:22,210 --> 00:43:29,450
+جاوبوني أشوف لأ إذا أنتم بتكتشفوا هنشتري 9
+
+497
+00:43:29,450 --> 00:43:34,630
+.10 ولو هو معالج treasure bills هَيبيعها على
+
+498
+00:43:34,630 --> 00:43:39,710
+9.05% والفرق بينهم هو الربح أو الـ spread الربح
+
+499
+00:43:39,710 --> 00:43:46,290
+للـ dealer اللي احنا بسمّيه cash spread يعني لو
+
+500
+00:43:46,290 --> 00:43:49,030
+إجينا .. لو إجينا .. لو إجينا two investors مع بعض 
+
+501
+00:43:49,030 --> 00:43:53,090
+واحد بدّه يشتري و واحد يبيع اللي بدّه يشتري
+
+502
+00:43:53,090 --> 00:43:58,230
+انتبهوا بس اللي بدّه يشتري بناخد منه .. هه هذا
+
+503
+00:43:58,230 --> 00:44:05,490
+اكتب لكم ايه ناخد منه أنا ديلر 9.10 أخدنا منه 9.10
+
+504
+00:44:05,490 --> 00:44:08,510
+و أعطينا له ايش الـ treasure bills هو أخد الـ
+
+505
+00:44:08,510 --> 00:44:11,470
+treasure bills اجا واحد ثاني لأ معاه treasure
+
+506
+00:44:11,470 --> 00:44:18,870
+bills و بدّه يبيعها اه فاحنا بناخدها منّه نعطيه نعطيه
+
+507
+00:44:18,870 --> 00:44:26,130
+يعني بدّه يبيعها نعطيه 9.05 الديلر بيعطيه 9.05
+
+508
+00:44:26,130 --> 00:44:33,050
+وبالتالي الديلر ربحه اللي هو 9.10 نأخذ 9.05 لأنه 
+
+509
+00:44:33,050 --> 00:44:39,870
+وسيط okay فدائما
+
+510
+00:44:39,870 --> 00:44:43,410
+اللي بيدي يشتري لما أنتو تروحوا تشتريوا دولار
+
+511
+00:44:43,410 --> 00:44:46,870
+بسيط لما تروحوا تشتريوا دولار مين راح تصرف دولار
+
+512
+00:44:46,870 --> 00:44:53,000
+من السوق؟ أغلبكم آه؟ عندك السعر اليوم أربعة فاصلة
+
+513
+00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:57,040
+واحد وسبعين أربعة فاصلة تسعة وستين معاكي أنت ميت
+
+514
+00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:00,580
+دولار، مظبوط؟ الميت دولار جداش بتبيعيها، عجداش
+
+515
+00:45:00,580 --> 00:45:03,900
+خلّيها هي ما تحكيش على تسعة وستين وانا على واحد
+
+516
+00:45:03,900 --> 00:45:11,440
+وسبعين، هعطيكي على تسعة وستين طيب أيوة،
+
+517
+00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:15,320
+هياخد منك الميت دولار، تبقى يا بنات جانب ما تمشي،
+
+518
+00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,660
+هياخد منك الميت دولار على تسعة وستين، أخدها وهيروح
+
+519
+00:45:18,660 --> 00:45:22,520
+بيها على واحد وسبعينهيكون في ربح الفرج 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6e607bfcfaae89cd380ad42a9aebb21aba35e54a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2076 @@
+1
+00:00:22,270 --> 00:00:27,930
+Okay طبعا السبوع الفات حكينا عن اللي هو chapter
+
+2
+00:00:27,930 --> 00:00:33,250
+one، مظبوط؟ في حد يذكرني إيش الموضوع كان chapter
+
+3
+00:00:33,250 --> 00:00:34,210
+one؟
+
+4
+00:00:38,850 --> 00:00:43,690
+Okay اللي هو investment environments يعني ال .. ال
+
+5
+00:00:43,690 --> 00:00:46,410
+.. ال chapter فات احنا حكينا عن investment
+
+6
+00:00:46,410 --> 00:00:49,990
+environments اللي هو البيئة الاستثمارية و حكينا في
+
+7
+00:00:49,990 --> 00:00:53,250
+البيئة الاستثمارية لازم نحكي الفرق بين ال real
+
+8
+00:00:53,250 --> 00:00:57,030
+assets و ال financial assets و حكينا العلاقة بين
+
+9
+00:00:57,030 --> 00:00:59,770
+ال financial markets و ال economy و العلاقة بين
+
+10
+00:00:59,770 --> 00:01:09,410
+السوق والمال و ال economy و حكينا عن ال ..العائد
+
+11
+00:01:09,410 --> 00:01:14,010
+المخاطر وحكينا عن كفاءة السوق هذا المواضيع ركزنا
+
+12
+00:01:14,010 --> 00:01:18,090
+عليها بال .. بال chapter one بناء على فهم كل
+
+13
+00:01:18,090 --> 00:01:21,350
+chapter one في اللي هو ال assignment اللي هو
+
+14
+00:01:21,350 --> 00:01:23,690
+question one ال question one هو اللي علاقة بال
+
+15
+00:01:23,690 --> 00:01:27,210
+chapter one خليني بس أعطيكوا how to .. to handle
+
+16
+00:01:27,210 --> 00:01:30,410
+question one السؤال بيحكي in the light of chapter
+
+17
+00:01:30,410 --> 00:01:34,250
+one اللي هو ال investment environmentdescribe the
+
+18
+00:01:34,250 --> 00:01:37,010
+investment environment in Palestine Authority area
+
+19
+00:01:37,010 --> 00:01:42,110
+حسب فهمكم لل chapter one بدنا نطبق chapter one على
+
+20
+00:01:42,110 --> 00:01:47,230
+Palestine Authority Area يعني أخدنا احنا المواضيع
+
+21
+00:01:47,230 --> 00:01:50,630
+اللي حكينا فيها باجي بال Palestine Authority to
+
+22
+00:01:50,630 --> 00:01:54,590
+discuss the investment environment أول إشي بنحكي
+
+23
+00:01:54,590 --> 00:01:58,130
+اللي هو السؤال الأول مرتبط فيها اللي هو ال real
+
+24
+00:01:58,130 --> 00:02:01,380
+asset و ال financial assetبدنا نشوف إيش فيه real
+
+25
+00:02:01,380 --> 00:02:04,100
+assets متوفرة في مناطق السلطة الفلسطينية وشو في
+
+26
+00:02:04,100 --> 00:02:08,280
+عنده financial assets بدنا نعملهم listing ونشرح
+
+27
+00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,860
+اللي موجود بس اللي موجود ماعناش علاقة باللي مش
+
+28
+00:02:10,860 --> 00:02:16,520
+موجود يعني إشي مثلا treasury bills مثلا مش موجودة
+
+29
+00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:20,300
+عندنا فمافي داعي أنه أنا أحكي عنها okay يعني بدنا
+
+30
+00:02:20,300 --> 00:02:24,900
+نعرف إيش ال financial assets وإيش ال real assets
+
+31
+00:02:24,900 --> 00:02:28,040
+available in the Palestinian Authority هذا واحد
+
+32
+00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:33,430
+بعدينبدنا نعمل فرق بيناتهم from the palestinian
+
+33
+00:02:33,430 --> 00:02:36,470
+point of view من وجه النظر الموجودة في الأراضي
+
+34
+00:02:36,470 --> 00:02:40,390
+الفلسطينية بعدين نحكي عن ال characteristics تبعتهم
+
+35
+00:02:40,390 --> 00:02:44,250
+و نحكي عن ال competition نحكي مثلا على ال
+
+36
+00:02:44,250 --> 00:02:46,870
+efficiency هل السوق الفلسطيني efficient ولا مش
+
+37
+00:02:46,870 --> 00:02:51,610
+efficient okay و نحكي على ال risk and returnهذا
+
+38
+00:02:51,610 --> 00:02:54,730
+المفروض احنا نحكي فيه ب chapter one مش هيكون صعب
+
+39
+00:02:54,730 --> 00:02:58,870
+سهل بس بحتاج ان انتوا شوية تقرأوا في .. في هذا
+
+40
+00:02:58,870 --> 00:03:03,030
+الموضوع و اذا انتوا محتاجوا .. محتاجين مساعدة او
+
+41
+00:03:03,030 --> 00:03:06,850
+more details في الساعات المكتبية ممكن تيجوا لأكتر
+
+42
+00:03:06,850 --> 00:03:12,750
+توضيح okay نرجع ل chapter two ال link بين chapter
+
+43
+00:03:12,750 --> 00:03:19,040
+one و chapter two انه احنا ب chapter one أخدناإنه
+
+44
+00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:23,900
+financial assets are classified into classes and
+
+45
+00:03:23,900 --> 00:03:27,080
+we give a brief about these classes حكينا إنه ال
+
+46
+00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:31,980
+financial assets الأصول المالية لها classes يعني
+
+47
+00:03:31,980 --> 00:03:36,460
+عبارة عن families عبارة عن مجموعات فاحنا مهمتنا
+
+48
+00:03:36,460 --> 00:03:40,390
+هذه المجموعات نبدأ نفصل فيها في في chapter twoيعني
+
+49
+00:03:40,390 --> 00:03:44,370
+chapter one احنا عطينا brief اختصار في chapter one
+
+50
+00:03:44,370 --> 00:03:51,210
+راح نروح بتفاصيل اللي هو ال asset classes اذا احنا
+
+51
+00:03:51,210 --> 00:03:55,230
+فهمنا ال asset classes بنقدر ان احنا نقول احنا
+
+52
+00:03:55,230 --> 00:03:58,970
+فهمنا كتير من أدوات الاستثمار وهذا كتير الفصل
+
+53
+00:03:58,970 --> 00:04:03,130
+بساعدكم كمان تستطيعوا تجاوبوا على اللي هو السؤال
+
+54
+00:04:03,130 --> 00:04:03,450
+الأول
+
+55
+00:04:06,310 --> 00:04:12,410
+Okay فى حد عنده سؤال قال ما نبدأ فى .. طيب نبدأ
+
+56
+00:04:12,410 --> 00:04:19,090
+بسم الله is on chapter two asset classes and
+
+57
+00:04:19,090 --> 00:04:22,430
+financial instruments ال asset classes اللى حكينا
+
+58
+00:04:22,430 --> 00:04:27,530
+عندهم اللى هو عند money market و عند ال capital
+
+59
+00:04:27,530 --> 00:04:31,350
+market فى عند ال bonds فى عند ال equity okay هدول
+
+60
+00:04:31,350 --> 00:04:34,070
+هم ال asset classes فاكرين المرة الفاترة لما حكينا
+
+61
+00:04:34,070 --> 00:04:34,570
+عن ال ..
+
+62
+00:04:39,660 --> 00:04:47,480
+stocks وحكينا على ال bonds okay فهذا بالأساس أننا
+
+63
+00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:54,720
+نقسم أصل classes ل equity و debits او stocks و
+
+64
+00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,540
+bonds هذه واحدة من ال classifications في ناس
+
+65
+00:04:57,540 --> 00:05:02,480
+بيعملوا تقسيم آخر money markets و capital markets
+
+66
+00:05:06,060 --> 00:05:12,180
+السوق النقدي والسوق الرقسمالي طبعا أغلب التصنيفات
+
+67
+00:05:12,180 --> 00:05:15,080
+.. أغلب التصنيفات بتعتمد على ال money market و ال
+
+68
+00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,020
+capital market و احنا هنروح نفصل في ال money
+
+69
+00:05:18,020 --> 00:05:21,100
+market و ال capital market طبعا بالنسبة لل stocks
+
+70
+00:05:21,100 --> 00:05:27,400
+و ال bonds هم بيقعوا تحت ال capital market ليش
+
+71
+00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:30,040
+بيقعوا تحت ال capital market لأنه long term هنيجي
+
+72
+00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:34,840
+نفصل واحدة واحدة okay نبدأ بأول واحدة
+
+73
+00:05:40,270 --> 00:05:42,410
+ال acid classes في عند ال money markets
+
+74
+00:05:42,410 --> 00:05:46,130
+instruments في عندى أدوات مالية يتم تدولها في
+
+75
+00:05:46,130 --> 00:05:50,210
+السوق النخدي money market بيسموه سوق نخدي ليش
+
+76
+00:05:50,210 --> 00:05:54,450
+سميناها سوق نخدي لإن السوق قصير أجل سوق إيش ماله؟
+
+77
+00:05:54,450 --> 00:05:58,270
+قصير أجل لو مثلا معاكم مية دولار رايحين تصرفوها
+
+78
+00:05:58,270 --> 00:06:03,630
+مقاومة الشاكل تصرفوها على المكان فبيسميها ده سوق
+
+79
+00:06:03,630 --> 00:06:07,850
+ماله money market money market سوق نخدي تمام؟
+
+80
+00:06:10,490 --> 00:06:12,950
+وفيها ان ال capital market instruments ال capital
+
+81
+00:06:12,950 --> 00:06:17,930
+market instruments هو سوق طويل أجل okay يعني بيمتد
+
+82
+00:06:17,930 --> 00:06:21,450
+الاستثمار فيه لأكتر من سنة ال money market هو
+
+83
+00:06:21,450 --> 00:06:24,050
+استثمار لأقل من سنة ال capital market بيكون
+
+84
+00:06:24,050 --> 00:06:27,530
+استثمار لأكتر من سنة ال capital market بيشمل ال
+
+85
+00:06:27,530 --> 00:06:29,770
+bonds ال equity securities و ال derivative
+
+86
+00:06:29,770 --> 00:06:32,770
+securities طبعا احنا عطناكم brief على كل واحدة من
+
+87
+00:06:32,770 --> 00:06:38,540
+هدول طبعا هنروح تفاصيل أكتر هكون في ال chapterOkay
+
+88
+00:06:38,540 --> 00:06:43,140
+كمان مرة يعني ال money market هو سوق قصير أجل okay
+
+89
+00:06:43,140 --> 00:06:47,740
+أقل من سنة ال capital market هو سوق طويل أجل و هو
+
+90
+00:06:47,740 --> 00:06:51,040
+أكبر من سنة إيش يعني أقل من سنة و أكبر من سنة يعني
+
+91
+00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,360
+إذا أنا بدي تمويل قصير أجل بروح ع ال money market
+
+92
+00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,700
+إذا أنا بدي تمويل طويل أجل بروح ع ال capital
+
+93
+00:06:57,700 --> 00:07:02,810
+marketيعني بدي سندات لمدة عشر سنوات بروحش على ال
+
+94
+00:07:02,810 --> 00:07:04,950
+.. على ال .. على ال money market بروح على ال
+
+95
+00:07:04,950 --> 00:07:08,490
+capital market بدي أسهم طبعا الأسهم هي عبارة عن
+
+96
+00:07:08,490 --> 00:07:12,170
+أدوات ملكية طويلة الأجل بروح على ال capital market
+
+97
+00:07:12,170 --> 00:07:16,670
+derivative securities قلنا إنه هي اشتقت من ال ..
+
+98
+00:07:16,670 --> 00:07:23,690
+ال .. من ال capital market okay إذا في حد ماعندهوش
+
+99
+00:07:23,690 --> 00:07:25,990
+وضوح ال money market و ال capital market إيش
+
+100
+00:07:25,990 --> 00:07:28,190
+الفرقات مناتهم okay
+
+101
+00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:41,160
+the money markets sub sector of the fixed income
+
+102
+00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:45,100
+markets من أحد ميزات ال money markets أنه هو
+
+103
+00:07:45,100 --> 00:07:51,420
+بيعطيني عائد ثابت أو دخل ثابت okay يعني احنا بندرج
+
+104
+00:07:51,420 --> 00:07:56,180
+العوائد اللي في ال money market في عوائد ثابتةوإيش
+
+105
+00:07:56,180 --> 00:08:00,380
+كمان securities are short term قصيرة أجر اللي هو
+
+106
+00:08:00,380 --> 00:08:06,400
+حكيناها أقل من سنة طيب liquids سائلة إيش معناه
+
+107
+00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,220
+liquid؟ تحويلها لأموال نقدية سهولة تحويلها لأموال
+
+108
+00:08:09,220 --> 00:08:12,140
+نقدية بالظبط سهولة تحويلها لأموال نقدية يعني مثلا
+
+109
+00:08:12,140 --> 00:08:16,210
+لو أنت معاكي مية دولار بجابتكبتعاني لما تحوليها
+
+110
+00:08:16,210 --> 00:08:20,350
+لشكل نقضية بسرعة طب لو عندك وديعة في ال bank برضه
+
+111
+00:08:20,350 --> 00:08:23,850
+سهل ان انت تحوليها ل cash لنقضية لو معاكي check
+
+112
+00:08:23,850 --> 00:08:28,590
+قصير أجل check طبعا backed by the bank انه مدعوم
+
+113
+00:08:28,590 --> 00:08:33,170
+ويله ضمانات سهل ان انت تحوليه لنقضية okay هنيجي
+
+114
+00:08:33,170 --> 00:08:37,390
+برضه في تفاصيل low risk مخاطرة مخافظة مافيش فيها
+
+115
+00:08:37,390 --> 00:08:42,260
+مخاطر عاليةand often have large denominations
+
+116
+00:08:42,260 --> 00:08:45,860
+large denominations يعني إلها مضاعفات كتير يعني
+
+117
+00:08:45,860 --> 00:08:48,840
+مثلا مية دولار ألف دولار عشر تلاف دولار و هكذا
+
+118
+00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:56,040
+okay إذا كوان مرة ال money market بتتميز إنه قصيرة
+
+119
+00:08:56,040 --> 00:09:00,380
+أجال liquid low risk and often have large
+
+120
+00:09:00,380 --> 00:09:01,080
+denominations
+
+121
+00:09:03,730 --> 00:09:06,510
+money markets, voucher funds allow individual to
+
+122
+00:09:06,510 --> 00:09:09,470
+access the money markets ال .. الكويس في ال money
+
+123
+00:09:09,470 --> 00:09:11,950
+markets because it deal with small amount of money
+
+124
+00:09:11,950 --> 00:09:15,610
+and short term so investors can access the voucher
+
+125
+00:09:15,610 --> 00:09:20,530
+funds يعني بيقدروا مثلا زي ما حكينا ال chapter
+
+126
+00:09:20,530 --> 00:09:23,950
+الفات .. chapter الفات أنه لو معاك 100 دولار بتقدر
+
+127
+00:09:23,950 --> 00:09:26,770
+تدخل في صناديخ الاستثمار and you can easily
+
+128
+00:09:26,770 --> 00:09:30,730
+liquidate at anytime يعني بنقدر نحولها لنخزية على
+
+129
+00:09:30,730 --> 00:09:34,930
+أي وجهة إحنا بنحتاجهافهذه برضه ال .. ال .. الكويس
+
+130
+00:09:34,930 --> 00:09:38,090
+بال money market أعطيكم مثال بسيط خلينا نفهم مثال
+
+131
+00:09:38,090 --> 00:09:41,270
+بسيط و نشوف كيف .. how we can use the money
+
+132
+00:09:41,270 --> 00:09:52,370
+markets كيف ممكن احنا نستخدم ال money markets لو
+
+133
+00:09:52,370 --> 00:09:59,430
+أجينا .. هذا عندنا مثال هذه ال assets وهذه ال
+
+134
+00:09:59,430 --> 00:10:08,870
+liabilities okayلو احنا حكينا عندي cash 300 300$
+
+135
+00:10:08,870 --> 00:10:16,010
+يعني عندي ال cash 300$ وعندي
+
+136
+00:10:16,010 --> 00:10:25,210
+ال liabilities short term liabilities 170
+
+137
+00:10:25,210 --> 00:10:28,830
+short
+
+138
+00:10:28,830 --> 00:10:33,960
+term liabilities التزاماتOkay التزامات خسرت أجل
+
+139
+00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:40,340
+مين بتطلعولي على ال cash و تطلعولي على ال short
+
+140
+00:10:40,340 --> 00:10:42,960
+term liabilities لو احنا بدنا نفترض بس هدول عندي
+
+141
+00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,080
+موجودين بال current assets يعني هنا عندي fixed
+
+142
+00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:53,920
+assets وعندي هنا اللي هو equity لنفترض
+
+143
+00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:58,320
+بس الحسابات الرئيسية الموجودة إيش بتلاحظوا ال cash
+
+144
+00:10:59,270 --> 00:11:02,330
+ليش العجز؟ ال cash تلاتمية دولار وال short
+
+145
+00:11:02,330 --> 00:11:06,830
+liabilities مية وسبعين يعني في فائد في فائد مش عجز
+
+146
+00:11:06,830 --> 00:11:11,550
+فائد كتير يعني انا لو بدأ أحسب نسبة سيولها نسبة
+
+147
+00:11:11,550 --> 00:11:15,270
+سيولها عالية إذا أخدتوها من الإدارة المالية يعني
+
+148
+00:11:15,270 --> 00:11:18,770
+لو أنا بدأ أحسب نسبة سيولها بنحكي تلاتمية على مية
+
+149
+00:11:18,770 --> 00:11:25,330
+وسبعين صح؟ بتطلع عالية نسبة سيولها طيب أمام هذه
+
+150
+00:11:25,330 --> 00:11:30,560
+الحالة مدام أنا عندي فائدنقدي يعني لو أنا بدأ أسد
+
+151
+00:11:30,560 --> 00:11:34,140
+الالتزامات بحتاج فقط مية و سبعين دولار عشان أسد
+
+152
+00:11:34,140 --> 00:11:38,060
+الالتزامات صح؟ و بزيد كام معايا؟ مية و تلاتين
+
+153
+00:11:38,060 --> 00:11:42,720
+دولار طب احنا ليش احنا بندوس استثمار؟ لماذا نخلي
+
+154
+00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:46,020
+تلاتمية دولار عندي cash و أنا فقط محتاج مية و
+
+155
+00:11:46,020 --> 00:11:50,320
+سبعين؟ زي ما هي الحالة موجودة هذه طب إيش ممكن
+
+156
+00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:55,580
+أسوي؟ أعمل استثمار استثمار قصير أجن استثمار إيش؟
+
+157
+00:11:55,580 --> 00:12:06,040
+قصير أجنمثلا باجي بحكي okay انا بحتاج 170 بدل
+
+158
+00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:12,720
+ما اخلي 170 بخلي مثلا منهم 200 دولار هدول cash حتى
+
+159
+00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:16,480
+لو انا احتاجت اسد ال 170 بستطيع احسدها من وين؟ من
+
+160
+00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:21,440
+ال cash طب اداش ضال؟ 100 دولار ال 100 دولار بروح
+
+161
+00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:26,880
+مثلا ممكن اروح اوضعها في بنكمثلا أعمل استثمار في
+
+162
+00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:31,760
+البنك الإسلامي مثلا لمدة ست شهور استثمار متخصص أو
+
+163
+00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:36,260
+أعمل مثلا وديعة أو CD في في البنك لمدة تلات شهور
+
+164
+00:12:36,260 --> 00:12:45,080
+okay مثلا deposit طبعا
+
+165
+00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:49,960
+اللي هو أفضل الصيغة الأولى لما كان عندي 300$ cash
+
+166
+00:12:51,270 --> 00:12:54,550
+ولا صيغة تانى لما كان عندى 200 دولار و 100 deposit
+
+167
+00:12:54,550 --> 00:13:00,390
+ايوة ال 100 دولار هاخد عليها اش هاخد عليها ربح او
+
+168
+00:13:00,390 --> 00:13:07,350
+عاقد بينما ال cash العاقد تبعه اش zero فهذا السبب
+
+169
+00:13:07,350 --> 00:13:12,190
+انه احنا بندخل فى ال money markets كم عامة هلأ
+
+170
+00:13:12,190 --> 00:13:16,550
+نرجع للاصل كان عندى 300 دولار صح؟
+
+171
+00:13:19,870 --> 00:13:23,550
+ال liabilities التزامعت علينا هلأ بأسوأ الظروف لو
+
+172
+00:13:23,550 --> 00:13:26,390
+أنا بدأ أسد ال liabilities بحتاج مية و سبعين دولار
+
+173
+00:13:26,390 --> 00:13:32,350
+من الأصول المتداولة صح؟ صح مظبوط؟ مظبوط طيب إذا
+
+174
+00:13:32,350 --> 00:13:35,110
+أنا مية و سبعين دولار أخدتهم من التلاتمية تلاتمية
+
+175
+00:13:35,110 --> 00:13:40,790
+ناقص مية و سبعين كم؟ مية و تلاتين إذا أنا في عندي
+
+176
+00:13:40,790 --> 00:13:44,530
+زيادة مية و تلاتين دولار هدول المية و تلاتين دولار
+
+177
+00:13:44,530 --> 00:13:50,080
+أنا مش مستثمرهمto be in safe side خلّينا بدل ما
+
+178
+00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:54,480
+نحفظ بمية و سبعين نحفظ بميتين مثلا هاي احتفظنا
+
+179
+00:13:54,480 --> 00:14:00,100
+بميتين والمية اللي ضالة ات وين سوى اوديها نعملها
+
+180
+00:14:00,100 --> 00:14:06,240
+investment ايش نعملها investment مثلا نروح نحطها
+
+181
+00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:09,220
+.. نحطها مثلا استثمار متخصص بالبنك الإسلامي و
+
+182
+00:14:09,220 --> 00:14:11,620
+نحكيله منه احنا بدنا إياها استثمار لمدة تلات شهور
+
+183
+00:14:11,620 --> 00:14:16,470
+على مدة ست شهورOkay او مثلا نحطها وديعة في ال bank
+
+184
+00:14:16,470 --> 00:14:20,430
+نحكيلهم هذه الوديعة لمدة تلت شهور او ست شهور بحيث
+
+185
+00:14:20,430 --> 00:14:24,550
+لو احنا احتجناها you can liquidate it easily انه
+
+186
+00:14:24,550 --> 00:14:28,410
+احنا نقدر نعملها تسيل و نقدر نبيعها طيب هلأ بأسوأ
+
+187
+00:14:28,410 --> 00:14:33,110
+الظروف لو احنا احتجنا المية وسبعين بأسوأ الظروف
+
+188
+00:14:33,110 --> 00:14:38,850
+ايش هنسوي ال cash هدول هنغطي فيهم المية وسبعين
+
+189
+00:14:38,850 --> 00:14:43,110
+هيظل عندي كام؟تلاتين والمية دولار هذه اللي ال
+
+190
+00:14:43,110 --> 00:14:46,870
+deposit بعملها liquidation بطلع عندى مية و تلاتين
+
+191
+00:14:46,870 --> 00:14:50,790
+دولار وبالتالي انا في الحالة هذه استفدت انه انا
+
+192
+00:14:50,790 --> 00:14:55,110
+غطيت السيولة غطيت short term liabilities وفي نفس
+
+193
+00:14:55,110 --> 00:15:00,230
+اللحظة انا عملت investments okay هذا السبب اللى
+
+194
+00:15:00,230 --> 00:15:04,310
+بيخلنا ندخل في موضوع ال short term investments
+
+195
+00:15:04,310 --> 00:15:11,960
+يعني مثلالو الواحد معاه مثلا ألف دولار، هذه الألف
+
+196
+00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:15,120
+دولار طول السنة بعمل حسب يقول أنا ماجدداش مصاريف و
+
+197
+00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,900
+جامعة و اشي مثلا ست مائة دولار، فيضل أربعمائة
+
+198
+00:15:18,900 --> 00:15:23,460
+دولار هدول معاه زيادة، طب شو يسوي فيهم؟ هيعمل فيهم
+
+199
+00:15:23,460 --> 00:15:27,360
+short term investmentاستثمار خصير أجاري ممكن
+
+200
+00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,320
+يستثمر فيهم بأي من الأدوات اللي احنا هنحكي فيها
+
+201
+00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:36,740
+okay هذا السبب الرئيسي اللي احنا بندخل في short
+
+202
+00:15:36,740 --> 00:15:39,300
+term investments لما نحكي عن long term investments
+
+203
+00:15:39,300 --> 00:15:46,660
+هنحكي why we using long term investments okay طيب
+
+204
+00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:53,660
+بتتميز ال short term investment بتتميز انه هي low
+
+205
+00:15:53,660 --> 00:15:58,900
+risk مخاطرها مخفضة يعني لو انا هالوديعة هتحتاجتها
+
+206
+00:15:58,900 --> 00:16:04,040
+سهل جدا ان انا اعملها liquidation صحيح ممكن اخسر
+
+207
+00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:10,280
+عمولات بسيطة بس بالاخير مش هيكون في عندي خسارة
+
+208
+00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:16,520
+طبعا
+
+209
+00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:21,140
+هنا انال short term investment or short term
+
+210
+00:16:21,140 --> 00:16:26,600
+classes في ال money market احنا بنتعامل هدول اغلب
+
+211
+00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,500
+الاستثمارات في ال money market في الأسواق قصيرة
+
+212
+00:16:29,500 --> 00:16:33,740
+الأجل اللي هو repurchase agreements اتفاقية إعادة
+
+213
+00:16:33,740 --> 00:16:39,220
+الشراء okay repurchase agreements اتفاقية إعادة
+
+214
+00:16:39,220 --> 00:16:44,920
+الشراء بعدين a small denominations time deposit
+
+215
+00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:50,530
+ودائع قصيرة أجل بمبالغ بسيطةlarge nomination time
+
+216
+00:16:50,530 --> 00:16:56,570
+deposits ودائع قصير اجر لكن بمبالغ كبيرة treasury
+
+217
+00:16:56,570 --> 00:17:00,890
+bills ودولات خزينة commercial paper أوراق تجارية
+
+218
+00:17:00,890 --> 00:17:08,050
+saving deposits ودائع استثمارية أو ودائع الدخارو
+
+219
+00:17:08,050 --> 00:17:12,450
+آخر واحدة money market mutual funds اللي هو صندوق
+
+220
+00:17:12,450 --> 00:17:16,650
+استثمار قصير تأجل صندوق استثمار قصير تأجل يعني
+
+221
+00:17:16,650 --> 00:17:19,610
+مثلا صندوق استثمار قصير تأجل بتستثمر في ال .. في
+
+222
+00:17:19,610 --> 00:17:22,610
+العمل الصعب يعني بيعملوا صندوق استثمار زي المرة
+
+223
+00:17:22,610 --> 00:17:26,090
+الفأتات حكينا عليكم كل واحد بدفع 100 دولار و بروح
+
+224
+00:17:26,090 --> 00:17:29,770
+بنستثمر في ال .. مثلا في الجنيه السرليني كل واحد
+
+225
+00:17:29,770 --> 00:17:32,490
+مثلا بدفع 100 دولار بنروح بنجمحهم كلهم مع بعض و
+
+226
+00:17:32,490 --> 00:17:36,350
+نروح نستثمر مثلا باليوروعلى أساس إنه ممكن اليورو
+
+227
+00:17:36,350 --> 00:17:40,770
+في المستقبل يرتفع فهذا بيسميها صناديق استثمار
+
+228
+00:17:40,770 --> 00:17:45,750
+قصيرة أجل يعني قصيرة أجل نقدر نعمل نبيع الاستثمار
+
+229
+00:17:45,750 --> 00:17:53,370
+تبعنا خلال فترة زمانية قصيرة okay يعني زي مثلا لو
+
+230
+00:17:53,370 --> 00:17:58,230
+أنتوا البنات دخلتوا بجمعيات جمعية مثلا لمدة تلت
+
+231
+00:17:58,230 --> 00:18:02,090
+شهور قصيرة أجل لو دخل أربع عشرين واحد بالجمعية
+
+232
+00:18:02,090 --> 00:18:05,350
+بتصير طويلة أجلOkay بيصير طويلة الأجل فهذا الفرق
+
+233
+00:18:05,350 --> 00:18:12,390
+بين الطويلة الأجل وخاصية الأجل طبعا .. كمان مرة
+
+234
+00:18:12,390 --> 00:18:16,820
+Repurchase agreementsاتفاقية إعادة شراء small
+
+235
+00:18:16,820 --> 00:18:21,420
+denominations time deposits اللي هو ودائع قصيرة
+
+236
+00:18:21,420 --> 00:18:25,920
+أجل بمبالغ صغيرة بعدين البعديها ودائع طويلة أجل
+
+237
+00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,860
+بمبالغ كبيرة بعدين treasury bills وذنبات خزينة
+
+238
+00:18:29,860 --> 00:18:34,080
+commercial paper أوراق تجارية saving deposit ودائع
+
+239
+00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:38,040
+الدخارية money market mutual funds اللي هو صناديف
+
+240
+00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:43,120
+استثمار قصيرة أجل حندخل في تفاصيل واحدة واحدة
+
+241
+00:18:44,530 --> 00:18:47,730
+treasury bills ال treasury bills هي أذنات الخزينة
+
+242
+00:18:47,730 --> 00:18:53,550
+هذه أذنات الخزينة يتم إصدارها من قبل الحكومة
+
+243
+00:18:53,550 --> 00:18:57,850
+بيسموها treasury bills ال treasury معناها خزينة
+
+244
+00:18:57,850 --> 00:19:07,910
+bills أذنات هذه أذنات الخزينة بتحتاجها
+
+245
+00:19:07,910 --> 00:19:15,100
+الحكومة للتمويل النشاطات قصيرة الأجنبممكن تتبهان
+
+246
+00:19:15,100 --> 00:19:20,300
+شوية ال treasury bills هي بتحتاج الحكومة عشان تمول
+
+247
+00:19:20,300 --> 00:19:23,920
+نشاطاتها قصيرة الأجلة ممكن تاخد ثلاث شهور، أربع
+
+248
+00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:28,560
+شهور، ست شهور، تسعة شهور لاستثمارات قصيرة الأجلة
+
+249
+00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:32,240
+طبعا يتم إصدارها الحكومة لقوم الناس أو ال
+
+250
+00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:37,180
+companies بشراء هذه الأذنات الخزينة بتتميز low
+
+251
+00:19:37,180 --> 00:19:42,750
+riskمخاطرها risk free أو نحكي انه خالية من المخاطر
+
+252
+00:19:42,750 --> 00:19:47,930
+مش low risk كمان هي خالية من المخاطر و تصدر
+
+253
+00:19:47,930 --> 00:19:52,570
+بمضاعفات مثلا
+
+254
+00:19:52,570 --> 00:19:57,090
+ألف عشر تلاف و هكذا و تباق بخصم هذه ماعليهاش فائدة
+
+255
+00:19:57,090 --> 00:20:00,390
+اش ماعليها تباق بخصم هنشوف كيف تباق بخصم
+
+256
+00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,380
+طبعا مش شرط بس الحكومة الأمريكية تصدر هذا النوع من
+
+257
+00:20:06,380 --> 00:20:13,000
+الأذنات اي حكومة .. اي حكومة ذات ملأة اقتصادية
+
+258
+00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:17,360
+طبعا؟ ذات ملأة ايش؟ يعني في حكومات مابيقدروش
+
+259
+00:20:17,360 --> 00:20:20,880
+يعملوا treasury bills اه يعني بيكونوا ناس تعبانية
+
+260
+00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:24,240
+شوية فما بيستطعوش ان هم يصدروا treasury bills
+
+261
+00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:33,700
+الحكومة بدأت تكون ملتزمة أمام الجمهور بيدفع قيمة
+
+262
+00:20:33,700 --> 00:20:36,980
+هذه ال treasury bills طيب متى تلجأ الحكومة لإصدار
+
+263
+00:20:36,980 --> 00:20:40,680
+ال treasury bills سؤال بسيط هيك لنشوف إمكانياتك
+
+264
+00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:46,460
+بالاقتصاد متى تحتاج الحكومة لل treasury bills؟ كيف
+
+265
+00:20:46,460 --> 00:20:54,660
+يعني أعزف بيزنية؟ و متى بيصير؟ بيزنيتش؟ الحكومة
+
+266
+00:20:54,660 --> 00:20:56,760
+متى بتكون بحتاجة فلوس؟
+
+267
+00:20:59,980 --> 00:21:06,120
+ماش بياخدوا درائب؟ طيب ماش بتمولوا من الدرائب؟
+
+268
+00:21:06,120 --> 00:21:14,540
+ايوة اذا كان عندك taxes ال taxes revenues ال
+
+269
+00:21:14,540 --> 00:21:24,380
+taxes is less than the consumption the
+
+270
+00:21:24,380 --> 00:21:29,040
+governmental consumptionفإذا ال taxes ما بتغطيش ال
+
+271
+00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,980
+governmental consumption بحنا نحتاج نتدين الحكومة
+
+272
+00:21:31,980 --> 00:21:41,500
+بتحتاج تتدين okay لكن لما يكون العكس ال taxes is
+
+273
+00:21:41,500 --> 00:21:47,560
+greater than the governmental consumption يعني
+
+274
+00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:52,340
+الانفاق الحكومي في الحالة هذه احنا the government
+
+275
+00:21:52,340 --> 00:21:56,890
+is lendingفي الحالة التانية ال government lend في
+
+276
+00:21:56,890 --> 00:22:00,750
+الحالة الأولى ب government borrow انعيدك أول مرة
+
+277
+00:22:00,750 --> 00:22:04,870
+إذا كانت درائب اللي بيحصلوها من الناس أعلى من
+
+278
+00:22:04,870 --> 00:22:07,410
+الإنفاقات معناه الكلام هيكون عندهم زيادة صح؟
+
+279
+00:22:07,410 --> 00:22:12,210
+surplus إذا كانت درائب أعلى من الإنفاقات في الحالة
+
+280
+00:22:12,210 --> 00:22:17,190
+هذا هيكون surplus صح؟ يعني فائض معناه الكلام
+
+281
+00:22:17,190 --> 00:22:20,210
+بيقدروا يعملوا lending lending يعني يخردوا الناس
+
+282
+00:22:20,210 --> 00:22:26,050
+يعطوا الناس مصاريطب لو كان العكس لو كان ال taxes
+
+283
+00:22:26,050 --> 00:22:29,930
+الدرائب ما بتغطيش ال consumption معنى الكلام أنه
+
+284
+00:22:29,930 --> 00:22:34,830
+هنا بيكون عندهم deficit اللي هو عجز في الحالة هذه
+
+285
+00:22:34,830 --> 00:22:41,890
+اللي ال government بدها تخترد إذا كان ال deficit
+
+286
+00:22:41,890 --> 00:22:46,630
+قصير
+
+287
+00:22:46,630 --> 00:22:54,140
+فبنصدر treasury billsإذا كان العجل طويل الأجل
+
+288
+00:22:54,140 --> 00:22:59,500
+فبنصدر ثاندات حكومية okay هذا السبب بيخلي الحكومات
+
+289
+00:22:59,500 --> 00:23:06,180
+تلجأ لل treasury bills okay
+
+290
+00:23:06,180 --> 00:23:10,240
+يعني
+
+291
+00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:14,540
+الحكومة مابتروحش عن ناس تقولهم please اعطوني مصاري
+
+292
+00:23:14,540 --> 00:23:18,860
+لما بيقولهم مابحتاجوا مصاريبصدروا treasury bills و
+
+293
+00:23:18,860 --> 00:23:21,500
+الناس بتروح بتشتري هذه ال treasury bills و بتدفع
+
+294
+00:23:21,500 --> 00:23:25,900
+للحكومة لفلوس و تبايع ب discount هنشوف كيف تبايع ب
+
+295
+00:23:25,900 --> 00:23:38,220
+discount تبايع ب discount يعني تبايع بخصم طبعا
+
+296
+00:23:38,220 --> 00:23:42,360
+لما بتبايع بخصم لما تقرد في السوق المالي في إنا
+
+297
+00:23:42,360 --> 00:23:50,730
+bid price و ask priceسعر شراء و سعر بيع bid و ask
+
+298
+00:23:50,730 --> 00:23:57,970
+bid و ask bid و ask يعني سعر بيع و سعر شراء و
+
+299
+00:23:57,970 --> 00:24:04,010
+هناخد مثال مع بعض نشوف ال bid و ال ask عندكوا في
+
+300
+00:24:04,010 --> 00:24:11,750
+صفحة عطيني اللي .. اوه سمحتلي في صفحة تسعة و عشرين
+
+301
+00:24:12,780 --> 00:24:19,960
+في عندكم اللي هو figure 2.1 figure 2.1 في صفحه 29
+
+302
+00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:25,480
+اتفتحتوا صفحه 29؟ في صفحه 29 في عندنا ال treasury
+
+303
+00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,260
+bills زي ما انتوا شايفين هان treasury bills okay
+
+304
+00:24:28,260 --> 00:24:34,720
+في عندنا ال maturity ال maturity يعني فترة
+
+305
+00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:39,960
+الاستحقاق متى يتم استحقاق أذن الخزينة بعدين عندنا
+
+306
+00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:44,840
+ال bid price سعر شراءأو سعر العرض و ال ask price
+
+307
+00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:52,560
+سعر الذائق it changed مكتوب CHG و ال ask yield
+
+308
+00:24:52,560 --> 00:25:00,580
+اللي هو العائد على الشراء لو أجينا ناخد أول أذن
+
+309
+00:25:00,580 --> 00:25:08,320
+الخزينة هنشوفه احنا .. نشوفه مع بعض في chapter ..
+
+310
+00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,340
+chapter two
+
+311
+00:25:21,530 --> 00:25:35,010
+لو شوف .. روحنا على صفحه 29 هذه صفحه 29 okay الكل
+
+312
+00:25:35,010 --> 00:25:40,890
+شايف هيك؟ طبعا هذا هي .. في سؤال هيجي عليه how ..
+
+313
+00:25:40,890 --> 00:25:43,410
+how to read the financial data كيف نقرأ البيانات
+
+314
+00:25:43,410 --> 00:25:48,470
+نتطلع على treasury bills هذا
+
+315
+00:25:48,470 --> 00:25:55,100
+ال maturityمتى يستحق؟ بيستحق ب 22 أكتوبر 2009 okay
+
+316
+00:25:55,100 --> 00:26:02,120
+days to maturity كام متبقي لإنه ينتهي؟ طلع و قرأه
+
+317
+00:26:02,120 --> 00:26:09,460
+ليها eight days طيب ال bid price 0055
+
+318
+00:26:09,460 --> 00:26:16,420
+هذه percentage هذه نسبة مقوية يعني
+
+319
+00:26:16,420 --> 00:26:23,250
+معنى الكلام أنهيشتري .. ال customer .. ال investor
+
+320
+00:26:23,250 --> 00:26:29,930
+بشتري هان و ببيع هان okay يشتري و هنبيع .. هنيجي
+
+321
+00:26:29,930 --> 00:26:36,770
+ناخد تفاصيل طيب change .. unchanged يعني من آخر
+
+322
+00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,680
+حركة صارت على البيع والشراء ماصارش تغيير يعني هذا
+
+323
+00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:45,460
+سعر اليوم الماضي ماصارش تغيير لكن لو لاحظ مافي ال
+
+324
+00:26:45,460 --> 00:26:47,260
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+325
+00:26:47,260 --> 00:26:47,600
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+326
+00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:47,640
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+327
+00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:48,120
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+328
+00:26:48,120 --> 00:26:48,720
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+329
+00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:49,220
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+330
+00:26:49,220 --> 00:26:52,400
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+331
+00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:52,900
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+332
+00:26:52,900 --> 00:26:58,400
+.. ال .. ال ..
+
+333
+00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,440
+ال
+
+334
+00:27:03,020 --> 00:27:08,540
+أخر حركة يعني مثلا لو أنا بدأ أقول أنه اليوم 22
+
+335
+00:27:08,540 --> 00:27:12,140
+أكتوبر 21 أكتوبر اللي هو اليوم القبل ماصارش تغير
+
+336
+00:27:12,140 --> 00:27:18,620
+فضلوا الأسعار no change, unchanged يعني مافيش تغير
+
+337
+00:27:18,620 --> 00:27:24,940
+هنا طب
+
+338
+00:27:24,940 --> 00:27:29,560
+أحنا بدأ نحسب كيف بيتم بيع الأذن الخزينة
+
+339
+00:27:32,180 --> 00:27:41,900
+لنفترض ان احنا قدر الخزينة زي ما انتوا شايفين لو
+
+340
+00:27:41,900 --> 00:27:44,640
+طلعنا في ال phase 2 yields in figure 2-1 are
+
+341
+00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:50,160
+reported using the bank discount نطلع
+
+342
+00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:50,700
+على المثال
+
+343
+00:27:54,030 --> 00:27:58,750
+نتطلع على اللي عندكم في الكتاب في واحد منهم is
+
+344
+00:27:58,750 --> 00:28:02,490
+highlighted شايفين highlighted اللي هو احنا بناخد
+
+345
+00:28:02,490 --> 00:28:05,570
+مثالنا عليه موجود عندكم بالكتاب highlighted okay
+
+346
+00:28:05,570 --> 00:28:09,770
+اللي هو عندنا November تسعة عشر تسعة ستة و تلاتين
+
+347
+00:28:09,770 --> 00:28:13,990
+يعني المتبقي له ستة و تلاتين يوم okay و ال bid
+
+348
+00:28:13,990 --> 00:28:16,950
+price و ال ask price و هذا ماصارش عليه unchanged
+
+349
+00:28:16,950 --> 00:28:22,490
+ماصارش عليه تغيير فمثلنا هيكون على هذا ال هذا ال
+
+350
+00:28:22,490 --> 00:28:27,700
+treasury billsاه how to read اللي هو احنا كيف نقرأ
+
+351
+00:28:27,700 --> 00:28:32,620
+البيانات هذه يعني نعيده كام مرة November تسعة عشر
+
+352
+00:28:32,620 --> 00:28:38,400
+تسعة okay عنا ال maturity ستة و تلاتين يوم
+
+353
+00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:46,140
+maturity وعنا ال bid price zero
+
+354
+00:28:46,140 --> 00:28:49,720
+five five وعنا ال ask
+
+355
+00:28:55,140 --> 00:29:05,840
+الو عندنا zero four three طيب ال
+
+356
+00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:09,480
+ask bid okay
+
+357
+00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:17,460
+okay
+
+358
+00:29:17,460 --> 00:29:21,860
+عندنا ال bid zero
+
+359
+00:29:21,860 --> 00:29:31,030
+five و zero four3 okay الكل معناه هيك طيب هذه 0.5
+
+360
+00:29:31,030 --> 00:29:36,450
+إيش معناها هذه نسبة الخصم اكتبوا عليها نسبة إيش ال
+
+361
+00:29:36,450 --> 00:29:44,050
+discount rate نسبة الخصم نسبة
+
+362
+00:29:44,050 --> 00:29:53,130
+خصم okay والتانية برضه نسبة خصم لو أنا عند مستثمر
+
+363
+00:29:53,130 --> 00:29:59,040
+إيه هيشتريمستثمر بديه يشتري السؤال الأول على أي
+
+364
+00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:06,160
+سعر بديه يشتري فكروا فيها و اعطوني جواب لو في
+
+365
+00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:13,260
+مستثمر بديه يشتري على أي سعر بديه يشتري ال
+
+366
+00:30:13,260 --> 00:30:21,400
+ask اذا
+
+367
+00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,960
+بديه يشتري على هذا السعرفي في السوق المالي زي ما
+
+368
+00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:30,860
+احنا شرحنا المرة الفاتة في طرفين في السوق في ال
+
+369
+00:30:30,860 --> 00:30:35,200
+investors و
+
+370
+00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:40,280
+في ال dealer انتبهوا
+
+371
+00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:44,340
+معانافي عندنا ال investor و في عندنا مين ال dealer
+
+372
+00:30:44,340 --> 00:30:47,060
+ال dealer معناه الوسيط لما احنا شرحنا ال chapter
+
+373
+00:30:47,060 --> 00:30:51,240
+فات انه مابيصيرش ان احنا واحد يروح to access
+
+374
+00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,700
+directly the financial market لازم to go through
+
+375
+00:30:53,700 --> 00:30:56,940
+the financial intermediaries لازم يروح من خلال
+
+376
+00:30:56,940 --> 00:31:03,000
+الوسطاء المالي طيب اذا هذا السعر مين اللي بيعرضه؟
+
+377
+00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:07,760
+انه واحد ال investor ولا ال dealer لأ هذا ال
+
+378
+00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:08,040
+dealer
+
+379
+00:31:11,350 --> 00:31:15,630
+إذا ال dealer offer this price بيعرض هذا السعر
+
+380
+00:31:15,630 --> 00:31:19,650
+طبعا ال investor له عينين and he observing this
+
+381
+00:31:19,650 --> 00:31:25,250
+price هو جاعة بشوفها الأسعار طبعا بشتري على هذا
+
+382
+00:31:25,250 --> 00:31:35,370
+السعر okay buy و sell على هذا السعر طبعا هذا السعر
+
+383
+00:31:35,370 --> 00:31:39,710
+هذا اسمها نسبة خصم و هذا اسمها نسبة خصم كيف نحولها
+
+384
+00:31:39,710 --> 00:31:40,110
+لسعر
+
+385
+00:31:44,330 --> 00:31:48,310
+100 من اللي حضر بيعرف كيف ان احنا نحضر او نحول من
+
+386
+00:31:48,310 --> 00:31:59,110
+النسبة هذه الى سعر okay طبعا،
+
+387
+00:31:59,110 --> 00:32:08,790
+قداش متبقى؟ قداش متبقى؟ طيب خلصنا بعدين
+
+388
+00:32:08,790 --> 00:32:16,230
+تعرف تحلي؟ اهفي حد بيعرف يحلوا الدولار؟ طيب خدوا
+
+389
+00:32:16,230 --> 00:32:20,790
+دقيقتين او تلات دقائق لحالكم جربوا لحالكم لحالكم
+
+390
+00:32:20,790 --> 00:32:27,510
+جربوا طبعا انا هحله بالاخير عشان اساعدكم ال bar
+
+391
+00:32:27,510 --> 00:32:32,610
+value لهذا ال bonds لهذا ال treasure bills القيمة
+
+392
+00:32:32,610 --> 00:32:38,110
+الإسلامية عشر تلاف دولار القيمة
+
+393
+00:32:38,110 --> 00:32:42,080
+الإسلامية عشر تلاف دولارأعطيتكوا ال bid و أعطيتكوا
+
+394
+00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:46,320
+ال ask بدي تعرفولي سعر the price of ask and the
+
+395
+00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:52,180
+price of bid يعني how much the investor will buy
+
+396
+00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,940
+and how much the investor will sell يعني لو
+
+397
+00:32:55,940 --> 00:32:59,500
+المستثمر بده يشتري بقداش و لو بده يبيع ايه بقداش
+
+398
+00:32:59,500 --> 00:33:03,200
+يعني كدهش بده يدفع دولارات لإن هذه المحطوطة في
+
+399
+00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:07,680
+السوق المالي محطوطة ايهاش نسب فعشان هيك لما انتوا
+
+400
+00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:11,100
+بتشوفوا المشروع الأخبارية بتشوفوا نسب تستغرب انه
+
+401
+00:33:11,100 --> 00:33:18,980
+هذه نص في المية و هذه نسب مالية و ليس رقم فاخدوا
+
+402
+00:33:18,980 --> 00:33:22,860
+تلت دقائق عشان تعرفوا كيف ممكن هذا تنحسب okay
+
+403
+00:33:26,060 --> 00:33:28,320
+ممكن تشتغلوا as a groups كمجموعات
+
+404
+00:33:56,350 --> 00:34:02,690
+طيب يعني في مجموعة حلقة صحلأ صح بين بيه اجملت
+
+405
+00:34:02,690 --> 00:34:06,470
+براتي حلوة؟ هم مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا
+
+406
+00:34:06,470 --> 00:34:11,010
+مش مدربين احنا مش مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين
+
+407
+00:34:11,010 --> 00:34:11,350
+احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين
+
+408
+00:34:11,350 --> 00:34:11,930
+احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين
+
+409
+00:34:11,930 --> 00:34:18,530
+احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا
+
+410
+00:34:18,530 --> 00:34:28,790
+مدربين احنا مدربين احنا م
+
+411
+00:34:29,890 --> 00:34:33,750
+احنا عندنا حلقة سعرين اللي هو السعر اللي بده يبيع
+
+412
+00:34:33,750 --> 00:34:38,130
+عليه الديلار اللي هو ال bed اللي هو سعر ال bed
+
+413
+00:34:38,130 --> 00:34:42,670
+فاحنا بما أنه نسبة خسن فأول حاجة بدنا نشوف اللي هو
+
+414
+00:34:42,670 --> 00:34:50,170
+الاستحقاق ال maturity بدنا نقسمها على اللي هو عدد
+
+415
+00:34:50,170 --> 00:34:54,670
+أيام السنة اللي هو تلاتين و ستين و بعدين نضربها
+
+416
+00:35:10,900 --> 00:35:13,340
+هنضربها في الساق اللي هو اللي بديش عليا البان
+
+417
+00:35:20,630 --> 00:35:26,530
+بعدين ال .. ال .. الراحة مابي بيطلع؟ اه
+
+418
+00:35:26,530 --> 00:35:41,490
+لو خمسة لرحالة؟
+
+419
+00:35:41,490 --> 00:35:52,260
+لا مش لأ حبت في ال ..بعدي هنا .. بيجيب
+
+420
+00:35:52,260 --> 00:35:56,660
+هذا .. بحب
+
+421
+00:35:56,660 --> 00:36:01,260
+شيء .. هو .. هيطلع رسمياسي
+
+422
+00:36:16,650 --> 00:36:20,530
+أخدنا بالاعتبار ال maturity date إذا هذا ال
+
+423
+00:36:20,530 --> 00:36:27,010
+maturity ضربناه في النسبة المقوية اللي هو ال bed
+
+424
+00:36:27,010 --> 00:36:35,930
+طلعنا الرقم طبعا هذا أول خطوة بعدين نقول عشر تلاف
+
+425
+00:36:35,930 --> 00:36:41,010
+ناقص نسبة الخاصة أو قيمة الخاصة تطلع هذا الرقم إذا
+
+426
+00:36:41,010 --> 00:36:48,990
+هذا ال bar valueمعقس الخصم قيمة الخصم او ال
+
+427
+00:36:48,990 --> 00:36:57,830
+discount ال bar value ناقص ال discount بطلع
+
+428
+00:36:57,830 --> 00:37:05,570
+السعر هذا طريقة للحل طريقة ثانية اللي هو ال bar
+
+429
+00:37:05,570 --> 00:37:11,230
+value هي طريقة ثانية للحل bar value ضرب نفتح
+
+430
+00:37:11,230 --> 00:37:21,930
+courseواحد ناقص نسبة الخسن discount ضرب
+
+431
+00:37:21,930 --> 00:37:31,370
+ال maturity ضرب ال maturity ال
+
+432
+00:37:31,370 --> 00:37:39,490
+bar value بتساوي كم؟ عشر تلاف ضرب واحد ناقص
+
+433
+00:37:41,890 --> 00:37:49,070
+discount rates اللي هو عندنا 005
+
+434
+00:37:49,070 --> 00:37:55,290
+ضرب 36
+
+435
+00:37:55,290 --> 00:38:03,030
+على 360 طبعا خدوا بالكوا هادي عملية لحال ضرب هذه
+
+436
+00:38:03,030 --> 00:38:07,370
+يلا اعملوها بسرعة طبقوا هذه عشان هاطلب منكوا
+
+437
+00:38:07,370 --> 00:38:12,300
+تعملوا العكس هذا ال bid بدنا نعمل ال askخلصوا ال
+
+438
+00:38:12,300 --> 00:38:17,320
+bid و طلعولي جواب افهموا كمان مرة ال bar value عشر
+
+439
+00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:23,140
+تلاف ضرب واحد ناقص ال ask ال bid ضرب السبت و
+
+440
+00:38:23,140 --> 00:38:26,640
+تلاتين ال maturity مقصوم على تلات مية و ستين طيب
+
+441
+00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:35,480
+هلأ بنعمل ايش نعمل ال ask فى حد بيعمل ال ask فى
+
+442
+00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:40,680
+حد بيطبق ال ask نفس الاشي بس بتأكد انه فاهمينمين
+
+443
+00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:44,320
+يعمل ال ask؟ ع الورقة عندكم بس يعملوا ال ask يلا
+
+444
+00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:48,100
+عملولي ال .. ع الورقة ال ask و طلعولي سعر ال ask
+
+445
+00:38:48,100 --> 00:38:51,500
+كلام
+
+446
+00:38:51,500 --> 00:38:56,200
+هذا نظري منيح بس لما مانيش نطبق بنبطل نعرف
+
+447
+00:38:56,200 --> 00:39:03,800
+اشتغلولي ع ال ask طيب homework في البيت مطلوب
+
+448
+00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:04,640
+انكوا إيش تسووا؟
+
+449
+00:39:11,210 --> 00:39:17,710
+في البيت بد
+
+450
+00:39:17,710 --> 00:39:24,750
+تحولول ال bid و ال ask لأسعار شايفين
+
+451
+00:39:24,750 --> 00:39:27,850
+ال bid و ال ask هدول .. هدول ال bid و ال ask هما
+
+452
+00:39:27,850 --> 00:39:33,330
+discount rates بدنا ياهم prices أسعار نفس الطريقة
+
+453
+00:39:33,330 --> 00:39:38,070
+نفس الطريقة بد انا مثلا ال maturity تبقى تمانية
+
+454
+00:39:38,070 --> 00:39:41,700
+تحكيلي هذا سعر كذا و هذا سعر كذاال mature تبقى 15
+
+455
+00:39:41,700 --> 00:39:45,320
+سعر كذا و سعر كذا و 29 تعملوا ال table و تجيبولي
+
+456
+00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:48,220
+إياها المرة الجاية عشان أتأكد أنه على القانون اللي
+
+457
+00:39:48,220 --> 00:39:55,660
+أعطيتكم إياها okay لكل
+
+458
+00:39:55,660 --> 00:40:00,960
+الجدول؟ في حد عنده سؤال؟ في حد مش فاهم كيف؟ اه
+
+459
+00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,320
+فضلي انا مش فاهم ان الواحد ناقص ال person ليه هو
+
+460
+00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:06,080
+ال person يعني في الحالة اللي لازم نعمل ال person
+
+461
+00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:12,280
+ليه ضرر و ليه ممكن يبقى عاملاه هي رياضيا يعني احنا
+
+462
+00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:20,500
+لما نيجي لإنه discount ليش واحد ناقص؟ لإن لو
+
+463
+00:40:20,500 --> 00:40:31,240
+رياضيا شوفي رياضيا إيش بيصير معنا تبها بس يعني
+
+464
+00:40:31,240 --> 00:40:37,880
+إيش صارت عشر تلاف ضرب واحد ليه عشر تلاف okay ناقص
+
+465
+00:40:38,720 --> 00:40:48,560
+نسبة الخاصم okay عشر تلاف ناقص النسبة الخاصة okay
+
+466
+00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:53,360
+بس هذه نسبة الخاصة مضروبة في ايش ستة و تلاتين تلات
+
+467
+00:40:53,360 --> 00:41:02,240
+نية و ستين هذه هي نفسها تمام لأ
+
+468
+00:41:02,240 --> 00:41:04,000
+العشر تلاف هذه ال bar value ثابت
+
+469
+00:41:07,700 --> 00:41:10,980
+بعطيكوا إياها معطى bar value معروف إن ال treasury
+
+470
+00:41:10,980 --> 00:41:16,140
+bills قيمته الإسمية 10,000$ وحتى لو مش معطيكم
+
+471
+00:41:16,140 --> 00:41:22,200
+إياها قيمة ال bar value لل treasury bills هي 10
+
+472
+00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:29,620
+,000$ مرة جبنا امتحان للطلاب الفاصل فات وماعطناهمش
+
+473
+00:41:29,620 --> 00:41:35,020
+ال bar value تبع ال bond فأنا .. فإحنا هطيلهم عشان
+
+474
+00:41:35,020 --> 00:41:39,410
+أنتوا ما تسألوش في الامتحان ليشفالقيمة الاسمية
+
+475
+00:41:39,410 --> 00:41:46,050
+للسند هي الف دولار السند ال bond الا اذا كان غير
+
+476
+00:41:46,050 --> 00:41:50,070
+هيك يعني لو انا حكيتلكم calculate the bond price
+
+477
+00:41:50,070 --> 00:41:54,510
+خلاص اعتبروا انه ال bar value ايش الف دولار طيب هل
+
+478
+00:41:54,510 --> 00:41:59,290
+ال treasury bills هي معروفة عشر تلاف الا اذا كان
+
+479
+00:41:59,290 --> 00:42:03,490
+غير هيك ال
+
+480
+00:42:03,490 --> 00:42:06,230
+bar value تبعد ل treasury bills عشر تلاف دولار
+
+481
+00:42:07,100 --> 00:42:10,780
+القيمة الإسمية لل .. لل treasury bills لأذنات
+
+482
+00:42:10,780 --> 00:42:15,660
+الخزينة عشر تلاف دولار إلا إذا ذكرنا غير ذلك يعني
+
+483
+00:42:15,660 --> 00:42:20,320
+إلا قلنالك مثلا ميت ألف إذا ماذكرناش في الامتحان
+
+484
+00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,980
+ماكان أو خاص يتعامل معاها كأنها إيش عشر تلاف دولار
+
+485
+00:42:23,980 --> 00:42:29,880
+حتى لو ماكانتش معطلة فما تسألوش في الامتحان إيش ال
+
+486
+00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:32,860
+treasury bills برضه لأنه already هي عشر تلاف دولار
+
+487
+00:42:32,860 --> 00:42:35,740
+فهذا بكشف أن الطلاب اللي بيحضروا الطلاب اللي
+
+488
+00:42:35,740 --> 00:42:36,240
+بيحضروش
+
+489
+00:42:42,230 --> 00:42:48,490
+هيشتري فيه بعد ما .. بعد ما نحط السعرين انتبهوا يا
+
+490
+00:42:48,490 --> 00:42:51,590
+بنات بعد ما نحط السعرين عشان تفهموا سعر الشراء
+
+491
+00:42:51,590 --> 00:42:58,510
+والبيع بنحط السعرين أمام بعض لنفترض لو كان سعر 9
+
+492
+00:42:58,510 --> 00:43:05,450
+.10 و سعر 9.05 ال investor على وين بيشتري؟
+
+493
+00:43:08,270 --> 00:43:12,510
+ع باشتري أهالي ولا باشتري هذا؟ على هذا باشتري؟ لأ
+
+494
+00:43:12,510 --> 00:43:15,710
+أنا ماعطيتوش لأصب و لا بد هانت هيك محتوطين أسعار
+
+495
+00:43:15,710 --> 00:43:22,210
+هيك تسعة عشرة بدي أشتري يالا
+
+496
+00:43:22,210 --> 00:43:29,450
+جاوبوني أشوف لأ إذا أنتوا بتكتشوا هنشتري تسعة
+
+497
+00:43:29,450 --> 00:43:34,630
+فاصلة عشرةو لو هو معالج treasure bills هبيعها على
+
+498
+00:43:34,630 --> 00:43:39,710
+9.5% و الفرق بين اتهم هو الربح او ال spread الربح
+
+499
+00:43:39,710 --> 00:43:46,290
+لل dealer اللي احنا بسميه cash spread يعني لو
+
+500
+00:43:46,290 --> 00:43:49,030
+اجينا .. لو اجينا .. لو اجينا two investors مع بعض
+
+501
+00:43:49,030 --> 00:43:53,090
+واحد بديه يشتري و واحد يبيع اللي بديه يشتري
+
+502
+00:43:53,090 --> 00:43:58,230
+انتبهوا بس اللي بديه يشتري بناخد منه .. هه هذا
+
+503
+00:43:58,230 --> 00:44:05,490
+اكتب لكم ايه ناخد منهأنا ديلر 9.10 أخدنا منه 9.10
+
+504
+00:44:05,490 --> 00:44:08,510
+و أعطينا له ايش ال treasure bills هو أخد ال
+
+505
+00:44:08,510 --> 00:44:11,470
+treasure bills اجا واحد تاني لأ معاه treasure
+
+506
+00:44:11,470 --> 00:44:18,870
+bills و بده يبيعها اه فاحنا بناخدها من نعطيه نعطيه
+
+507
+00:44:18,870 --> 00:44:26,130
+يعني بده يبيعها نعطيه 9.05الديلر بيعطيه 9.05
+
+508
+00:44:26,130 --> 00:44:33,050
+وبالتالي الديلر ربحه اللي هو 9.10 ناخذ 9.05 لأنه
+
+509
+00:44:33,050 --> 00:44:39,870
+وسيط okay فدائما
+
+510
+00:44:39,870 --> 00:44:43,410
+اللي بيدي اشتري لما انتوا تروحوا تشتريوا دولار
+
+511
+00:44:43,410 --> 00:44:46,870
+بسيط لما تروحوا تشتريوا دولار مين راح تصرف دولار
+
+512
+00:44:46,870 --> 00:44:53,000
+من السوق؟ أغلبكم أه؟عندك السعر اليوم اربعة فاصلة
+
+513
+00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:57,040
+واحد سبعين اربعة فاصلة تسعة وستين معاكي انت ميت
+
+514
+00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:00,580
+دولار، مظبوط؟ الميت دولار جداش بتبيعيها، عجداش
+
+515
+00:45:00,580 --> 00:45:03,900
+خلّيها هي ما تحكيش على تسعة وستين وانا على واحد
+
+516
+00:45:03,900 --> 00:45:11,440
+وسبعين، هعطيكي على تسعة وستين طيب ايوة،
+
+517
+00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:15,320
+هياخد منك الميت دولار، تبقى يا بنات جانب ما تمشي،
+
+518
+00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,660
+هياخد منك الميت دولار على تسعة وستين، أخدها وهيروح
+
+519
+00:45:18,660 --> 00:45:22,520
+بيها على واحد وسبعينهيكون في ربح الفرج
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..afa55db01ba5f687e60ba6d637dff6d0a29aa5ca
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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بيناتهم from the palestinian point of view من وجه النظر الموجودة في الأراضي الفلسطينية بعدين نحكي عن ال characteristics تبعتهم و نحكي عن ال competition نحكي مثلا على ال efficiency هل السوق الفلسطيني efficient ولا مش efficient okay و نحكي على ال risk and return", "tokens": [44510, 8315, 8717, 25957, 1211, 6156, 2288, 4587, 49374, 9307, 16095, 490, 264, 3984, 377, 259, 952, 935, 295, 1910, 9154, 49610, 3224, 28239, 19913, 2288, 9673, 29245, 23328, 3660, 8978, 16247, 2288, 46958, 1829, 27188, 1211, 3794, 9566, 9957, 10632, 39182, 9957, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 10891, 6055, 3555, 34268, 16095, 4032, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 6211, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 50113, 15040, 15844, 2423, 10493, 8032, 1211, 21136, 30543, 27188, 1211, 3794, 9566, 9957, 1829, 7148, 49429, 37893, 7148, 1392, 4032, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 15844, 2423, 3148, 293, 2736], "avg_logprob": -0.13385953608247422, "compression_ratio": 1.6778242677824269, "no_speech_prob": 2.980232238769531e-07, "words": 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"text": "هذا المفروض احنا نحكي فيه ب chapter one مش هيكون صعب سهل بس بحتاج ان انتوا شوية تقرأوا في .. في هذا الموضوع و اذا انتوا محتاجوا .. محتاجين مساعدة او more details في الساعات المكتبية ممكن تيجوا لأكتر توضيح okay نرجع ل chapter two ال link بين chapter one و chapter two انه احنا ب chapter one أخدنا", "tokens": [3224, 15730, 9673, 5172, 32887, 11242, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 8978, 3224, 4724, 7187, 472, 37893, 39896, 30544, 20328, 3615, 3555, 8608, 3224, 1211, 4724, 3794, 4724, 33753, 26108, 16472, 16472, 2655, 14407, 13412, 2407, 10632, 6055, 4587, 2288, 10721, 14407, 8978, 4386, 8978, 23758, 9673, 2407, 11242, 45367, 4032, 1975, 15730, 16472, 2655, 14407, 3714, 33753, 26108, 14407, 4386, 3714, 33753, 26108, 9957, 47524, 995, 22488, 3660, 1975, 2407, 544, 4365, 8978, 21136, 45761, 9307, 9673, 4117, 2655, 3555, 10632, 3714, 43020, 6055, 1829, 7435, 14407, 5296, 10721, 4117, 2655, 2288, 33427, 11242, 1829, 5016, 1392, 8717, 47341, 3615, 5296, 7187, 732, 2423, 2113, 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"probability": 0.90185546875}, {"start": 324.48, "end": 327.4, "word": " ليش", "probability": 0.872314453125}, {"start": 327.4, "end": 327.8, "word": " بيقعوا", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 327.8, "end": 327.94, "word": " تحت", "probability": 0.996337890625}, {"start": 327.94, "end": 328.06, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.94873046875}, {"start": 328.06, "end": 328.28, "word": " capital", "probability": 0.958984375}, {"start": 328.28, "end": 328.64, "word": " market", "probability": 0.93310546875}, {"start": 328.64, "end": 328.96, "word": " لأنه", "probability": 0.7626953125}, {"start": 328.96, "end": 329.12, "word": " long", "probability": 0.90966796875}, {"start": 329.12, "end": 329.36, "word": " term", "probability": 0.89697265625}, {"start": 329.36, "end": 330.04, "word": " هنيجي", "probability": 0.83525390625}, {"start": 330.04, "end": 330.4, "word": " نفصل", "probability": 0.9488932291666666}, {"start": 330.4, "end": 330.66, "word": " واحدة", "probability": 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capital market بيكون استثمار لأكتر من سنة ال capital market بيشمل ال bonds ال equity securities و ال derivative securities طبعا احنا عطناكم brief على كل واحدة من هدول طبعا هنروح تفاصيل أكتر هكون في ال chapter", "tokens": [2407, 41185, 11296, 16472, 2423, 4238, 2142, 12190, 2423, 4238, 2142, 12190, 31439, 8608, 30543, 23032, 2407, 26895, 5551, 7435, 1211, 1392, 37495, 22653, 4724, 32640, 2655, 3215, 42963, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 8978, 3224, 5296, 10721, 4117, 2655, 2288, 9154, 8608, 1863, 3660, 2423, 1460, 2142, 31439, 44713, 12984, 2304, 9640, 5296, 10721, 4587, 1211, 9154, 8608, 1863, 3660, 2423, 4238, 2142, 4724, 1829, 30544, 44713, 12984, 2304, 9640, 5296, 10721, 4117, 2655, 2288, 9154, 8608, 1863, 3660, 2423, 4238, 2142, 4724, 1829, 8592, 42213, 2423, 14713, 2423, 10769, 38597, 4032, 2423, 13760, 38597, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 1975, 5016, 8315, 6225, 9566, 8315, 24793, 5353, 15844, 28242, 36764, 24401, 3660, 9154, 8032, 3215, 12610, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 8032, 1863, 32887, 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60125, "start": 572.55, "end": 601.25, "text": "فهذه برضه ال .. ال .. الكويس بال money market أعطيكم مثال بسيط خلينا نفهم مثال بسيط و نشوف كيف .. how we can use the money markets كيف ممكن احنا نستخدم ال money markets لو أجينا .. هذا عندنا مثال هذه ال assets وهذه ال liabilities okay", "tokens": [5172, 3224, 24192, 4724, 43042, 3224, 2423, 4386, 2423, 4386, 33251, 45865, 3794, 20666, 1460, 2142, 5551, 3615, 9566, 1829, 24793, 50113, 6027, 4724, 3794, 1829, 9566, 16490, 20292, 8315, 8717, 5172, 16095, 50113, 6027, 4724, 3794, 1829, 9566, 4032, 8717, 8592, 38688, 9122, 33911, 4386, 577, 321, 393, 764, 264, 1460, 8383, 9122, 33911, 3714, 43020, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 14851, 9778, 40448, 2423, 1460, 8383, 45164, 5551, 7435, 1829, 8315, 4386, 23758, 43242, 8315, 50113, 6027, 29538, 2423, 9769, 37037, 24192, 2423, 375, 6167, 1392], "avg_logprob": -0.1841264231638475, "compression_ratio": 1.698019801980198, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 572.55, "end": 573.01, "word": "فهذه", 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لما كان عندي 300$ cash", "tokens": [2304, 12984, 15040, 5551, 25957, 1211, 44713, 12984, 2304, 9640, 8978, 29739, 1863, 4117, 33688, 3794, 37440, 1829, 50113, 15040, 32767, 41891, 8608, 2655, 13412, 3224, 13063, 44713, 12984, 2304, 9640, 44650, 9778, 9381, 9381, 34051, 5551, 25957, 1211, 50113, 15040, 4032, 16254, 27884, 34051, 6743, 8978, 8978, 29739, 1863, 4117, 32767, 41891, 6055, 1211, 9307, 13412, 3224, 13063, 1392, 50113, 15040, 19107, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 13672, 1829, 31439, 5551, 5172, 11242, 1211, 31767, 1829, 17082, 3660, 16247, 12610, 7578, 5296, 15042, 25961, 18871, 16254, 6641, 3, 6388], "avg_logprob": -0.17612846891085307, "compression_ratio": 1.6979166666666667, "no_speech_prob": 1.7881393432617188e-07, "words": [{"start": 745.0600000000001, "end": 745.74, "word": "مثلا", "probability": 0.9069010416666666}, {"start": 745.74, "end": 746.38, "word": " أعمل", "probability": 0.87744140625}, {"start": 746.38, "end": 746.78, "word": " استثمار", "probability": 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"text": "ولا صيغة تانى لما كان عندى 200 دولار و 100 deposit ايوة ال 100 دولار هاخد عليها اش هاخد عليها ربح او عاقد بينما ال cash العاقد تبعه اش zero فهذا السبب انه احنا بندخل فى ال money markets كم عامة هلأ نرجع للاصل كان عندى 300 دولار صح؟", "tokens": [12610, 995, 20328, 1829, 17082, 3660, 6055, 7649, 7578, 5296, 15042, 25961, 43242, 7578, 2331, 11778, 12610, 9640, 4032, 2319, 19107, 1975, 1829, 2407, 3660, 2423, 2319, 11778, 12610, 9640, 8032, 47283, 3215, 25894, 11296, 1975, 8592, 8032, 47283, 3215, 25894, 11296, 12602, 49628, 1975, 2407, 6225, 995, 28543, 49374, 15042, 2423, 6388, 18863, 995, 28543, 6055, 3555, 3615, 3224, 1975, 8592, 4018, 6156, 3224, 15730, 21136, 3555, 3555, 16472, 3224, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 3215, 9778, 1211, 6156, 7578, 2423, 1460, 8383, 9122, 2304, 6225, 10943, 3660, 8032, 1211, 10721, 8717, 47341, 3615, 24976, 33546, 1211, 25961, 43242, 7578, 6641, 11778, 12610, 9640, 20328, 5016, 22807], "avg_logprob": -0.24421295730604065, "compression_ratio": 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اللحظة انا عملت investments okay هذا السبب اللى بيخلنا ندخل في موضوع ال short term investments يعني مثلا", "tokens": [2655, 1211, 9307, 9957, 16070, 2304, 10632, 11778, 12610, 9640, 29538, 13672, 1829, 2423, 19107, 4724, 25957, 1211, 11296, 6553, 399, 4724, 9566, 1211, 3615, 43242, 7578, 3714, 10632, 4032, 6055, 1211, 9307, 9957, 11778, 12610, 9640, 46599, 6027, 2655, 6027, 1829, 1975, 8315, 8978, 21542, 6027, 3660, 29538, 44713, 5172, 3215, 2655, 16472, 3224, 1975, 8315, 32771, 9566, 36081, 21136, 1829, 12610, 3660, 32771, 9566, 36081, 2099, 1433, 375, 6167, 4032, 41185, 8717, 36178, 13672, 5016, 19913, 3660, 1975, 8315, 6225, 42213, 2655, 13784, 1392, 23758, 21136, 3555, 3555, 13672, 7578, 4724, 1829, 9778, 1211, 8315, 8717, 3215, 9778, 1211, 8978, 3714, 2407, 11242, 45367, 2423, 2099, 1433, 13784, 37495, 22653, 50113, 15040], "avg_logprob": -0.18464674379514612, "compression_ratio": 1.78714859437751, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 880.47, "end": 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"temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 34, "seek": 92436, "start": 906.86, "end": 924.36, "text": "لو الواحد معاه مثلا ألف دولار، هذه الألف دولار طول السنة بعمل حسب يقول أنا ماجدداش مصاريف و جامعة و اشي مثلا ست مائة دولار، فيضل أربعمائة دولار هدول معاه زيادة، طب شو يسوي فيهم؟ هيعمل فيهم short term investment", "tokens": [1211, 2407, 2423, 14407, 24401, 20449, 40294, 50113, 15040, 5551, 46538, 11778, 12610, 9640, 12399, 29538, 16247, 46538, 11778, 12610, 9640, 23032, 12610, 21136, 1863, 3660, 4724, 25957, 1211, 11331, 3794, 3555, 7251, 39648, 41850, 19446, 7435, 3215, 3215, 33599, 3714, 9381, 9640, 33911, 4032, 10874, 10943, 27884, 4032, 1975, 8592, 1829, 50113, 15040, 8608, 2655, 3714, 16373, 3660, 11778, 12610, 9640, 12399, 8978, 11242, 1211, 5551, 25513, 25957, 16373, 3660, 11778, 12610, 9640, 8032, 3215, 12610, 20449, 40294, 30767, 1829, 18513, 3660, 12399, 23032, 3555, 13412, 2407, 7251, 3794, 45865, 8978, 16095, 22807, 39896, 25957, 1211, 8978, 16095, 2099, 1433, 6078], "avg_logprob": 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repurchase agreements اتفاقية إعادة الشراء okay repurchase agreements اتفاقية إعادة الشراء بعدين a small denominations time deposit ودائع قصيرة أجل بمبالغ بسيطة", "tokens": [6027, 2099, 1433, 6078, 420, 2099, 1433, 5359, 8978, 2423, 1460, 2142, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 2655, 3615, 10943, 1211, 8032, 3215, 12610, 1975, 17082, 46152, 42963, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 9307, 8978, 2423, 1460, 2142, 8978, 16247, 3794, 14407, 4587, 12174, 9381, 48923, 16247, 7435, 1211, 13672, 1829, 31439, 1085, 2476, 651, 21422, 1975, 2655, 5172, 995, 4587, 10632, 11933, 3615, 18513, 3660, 25124, 23557, 38207, 1392, 1085, 2476, 651, 21422, 1975, 2655, 5172, 995, 4587, 10632, 11933, 3615, 18513, 3660, 25124, 23557, 38207, 39182, 9957, 257, 1359, 16244, 763, 565, 19107, 4032, 3215, 16373, 3615, 12174, 9381, 48923, 5551, 7435, 1211, 4724, 2304, 3555, 6027, 17082, 4724, 3794, 1829, 9566, 3660], "avg_logprob": -0.14295503980757898, "compression_ratio": 1.7926829268292683, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, 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تبايع بخصم طبعا لما بتبايع بخصم لما تقرد في السوق المالي في إنا bid price و ask price", "tokens": [3555, 9381, 3215, 2288, 14407, 47213, 12433, 4032, 2423, 8315, 3794, 39894, 32887, 5016, 39894, 8592, 2655, 16572, 29538, 2423, 47213, 12433, 4032, 39894, 3215, 5172, 3615, 24976, 5016, 4117, 20498, 3660, 5296, 5172, 1211, 41779, 4032, 6055, 3555, 995, 40228, 4724, 11635, 8032, 1863, 8592, 38688, 9122, 33911, 6055, 3555, 995, 40228, 4724, 11635, 6055, 3555, 995, 40228, 4724, 11635, 37495, 22653, 6055, 3555, 995, 40228, 4724, 9778, 9381, 2304, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 5296, 15042, 39894, 3555, 995, 40228, 4724, 9778, 9381, 2304, 5296, 15042, 6055, 4587, 2288, 3215, 8978, 21136, 30543, 9673, 6027, 1829, 8978, 11933, 8315, 12957, 3218, 4032, 1029, 3218], "avg_logprob": -0.1627358541173755, "compression_ratio": 1.8267326732673268, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1396.66, "end": 1397.14, "word": "بصدروا", "probability": 0.83193359375}, {"start": 1397.14, "end": 1397.4, "word": " 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\ No newline at end of file
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@@ -0,0 +1,2403 @@
+1
+00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,760
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اليوم ده نحكي عن ال chapter 
+
+2
+00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:29,200
+الأخير في ال .. في ال investment و هذا chapter is
+
+3
+00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:34,060
+important لأنه من خلاله احنا بنقدر نعرف how to
+
+4
+00:00:34,060 --> 00:00:38,200
+invest كيف احنا نستثمر ال chapter السابقة عرفتنا
+
+5
+00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,900
+بال risk and return العائد و المخاطرة عرفتنا بال
+
+6
+00:00:41,900 --> 00:00:46,660
+asset allocation عرفتنا بال asset assessment تمام؟
+
+7
+00:00:46,660 --> 00:00:49,040
+هلأ ال .. ال chapter هذا بيحكي عن investment
+
+8
+00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,820
+policy هنركز على investment policy and the
+
+9
+00:00:52,820 --> 00:00:56,220
+framework of the CFA institution or institute اللي
+
+10
+00:00:56,220 --> 00:01:01,040
+هو charter of financial association طبعا في كل
+
+11
+00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:04,320
+دولة من الدول فيها عندنا مؤسسة بتضبط عملية
+
+12
+00:01:04,320 --> 00:01:08,850
+الاستثمار بتعمل regulations للاستثمار تنظيم
+
+13
+00:01:08,850 --> 00:01:14,110
+للاستثمار و .. يعني مثلا احنا عندنا في .. في
+
+14
+00:01:14,110 --> 00:01:17,430
+فلسطين في عندنا الهيئة  **للتشريع** الاستثمار فبيكون
+
+15
+00:01:17,430 --> 00:01:20,910
+عندهم rules و هاد ال rules بتطبق يعني لابد ان
+
+16
+00:01:20,910 --> 00:01:25,850
+الشركات او ال individuals ي .. يتابعوا هاد ال ..
+
+17
+00:01:25,850 --> 00:01:31,310
+يطبقوا هاد التعليمات أهم
+
+18
+00:01:31,310 --> 00:01:35,640
+ال .. ال four stages of the investment process في
+
+19
+00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:41,020
+عندنا أربع مراحل لاستثمار أو لعملية الاستثمار
+
+20
+00:01:41,020 --> 00:01:45,140
+المراحل الأولى specifying objectives انحدد الهدف
+
+21
+00:01:45,140 --> 00:01:48,820
+what is your objective ليش أنتو بيكونوا بتستثمروا
+
+22
+00:01:48,820 --> 00:01:55,820
+okay and objectives are different from one to one
+
+23
+00:01:55,820 --> 00:01:59,280
+يعني مثلا ال young people they have different
+
+24
+00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:03,180
+objectives than older people الناس الصغار في السن
+
+25
+00:02:03,180 --> 00:02:07,840
+اللي هم أهداف تختلف عن الناس ال .. widows ladies
+
+26
+00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,900
+have different objectives than the married ladies
+
+27
+00:02:10,900 --> 00:02:14,520
+يعني النساء مثلا الأرامل عندهم أهداف تختلف عن
+
+28
+00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:20,840
+المتزوجات ال single ladies have different than the
+
+29
+00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:24,570
+married ladies ال .. ال kids they have different
+
+30
+00:02:24,570 --> 00:02:28,250
+objectives than the mature people يعني الأولاد
+
+31
+00:02:28,250 --> 00:02:31,670
+الظاهر عندهم أهداف تختلف عن ال .. so from the
+
+32
+00:02:31,670 --> 00:02:35,250
+investment point of view as a manager كمدير في
+
+33
+00:02:35,250 --> 00:02:37,810
+الاستثمار when .. when you are receiving or when
+
+34
+00:02:37,810 --> 00:02:41,050
+you have a chat or talk with some people you have
+
+35
+00:02:41,050 --> 00:02:44,410
+to consider what is or what are the .. the
+
+36
+00:02:44,410 --> 00:02:48,710
+objectives ايش هي أهدافهم by time people become
+
+37
+00:02:48,710 --> 00:02:51,190
+more mature than the .. than before الناس بيبدوا
+
+38
+00:02:51,190 --> 00:02:55,210
+أكثر عقلاء من الماضي كل ما هم بتقدروا .. so they
+
+39
+00:02:55,210 --> 00:02:59,750
+are asking for a moderate risk and moderate return
+
+40
+00:02:59,750 --> 00:03:10,790
+بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة بيسألوا 
+
+41
+00:03:10,790 --> 00:03:10,910
+على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة بيسألوا على عائد
+
+42
+00:03:10,910 --> 00:03:11,270
+متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع
+
+43
+00:03:11,270 --> 00:03:13,610
+متوسطة بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة
+
+44
+00:03:13,610 --> 00:03:16,470
+بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر
+
+45
+00:03:16,470 --> 00:03:18,470
+متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط
+
+46
+00:03:18,470 --> 00:03:22,050
+مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر متوس
+
+47
+00:03:25,470 --> 00:03:28,930
+then the second things is they specify constraints
+
+48
+00:03:28,930 --> 00:03:35,170
+what it means constraints some limitations to your
+
+49
+00:03:35,170 --> 00:03:38,510
+investments بعض المتطلبات اللي .. اللي احنا
+
+50
+00:03:38,510 --> 00:03:41,560
+بنحتاجها أثناء الاستثمار ادم يسميها constraints
+
+51
+00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:47,780
+يعني مثلا بنيجي بنحكي لبعض الناس they have concern
+
+52
+00:03:47,780 --> 00:03:51,700
+to receive cash every month or to receive cash
+
+53
+00:03:51,700 --> 00:03:55,400
+every three months this is constraints some people
+
+54
+00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,260
+they don't like to invest in a particular
+
+55
+00:03:57,260 --> 00:04:01,890
+companies يعني بعض الناس مابدون مش ي .. ي ..
+
+56
+00:04:01,890 --> 00:04:05,390
+يستثمروا في بعض الشركات for instance Muslims they
+
+57
+00:04:05,390 --> 00:04:10,410
+don't like to invest in .. in companies let's say
+
+58
+00:04:10,410 --> 00:04:16,650
+produce or provide pork meat يعني المسلمين مثلا
+
+59
+00:04:16,650 --> 00:04:22,090
+بيحبوش انه يستثمروا في شركات بتنتج اللحم الخنزير
+
+60
+00:04:22,840 --> 00:04:25,920
+because this is according to islamic sharia it is
+
+61
+00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:30,300
+violated the islamic sharia لأن هذا ضد الشريعة
+
+62
+00:04:30,300 --> 00:04:34,260
+الإسلامية so this is some constraints you have to
+
+63
+00:04:34,260 --> 00:04:38,320
+know the constraints of these people يعني لازم
+
+64
+00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,680
+نعرف شو بتطلباتهم what they need what the
+
+65
+00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,020
+limitations of their investments okay
+
+66
+00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:53,820
+formulating policy formulating policy it means ان
+
+67
+00:04:53,820 --> 00:04:57,660
+احنا بعد ما نحدد الهدف اللي هو ال policy yes ان
+
+68
+00:04:57,660 --> 00:05:01,320
+احنا نحط سياسة الاستثمار in which area we invest
+
+69
+00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,300
+what is the level of risk what is the level of
+
+70
+00:05:04,300 --> 00:05:09,190
+return Okay and we will go in details about this
+
+71
+00:05:09,190 --> 00:05:12,370
+Monitoring and updating portfolio after setting
+
+72
+00:05:12,370 --> 00:05:15,350
+the policy and we implement the policy بعد ما احنا
+
+73
+00:05:15,350 --> 00:05:18,970
+نحط ال policy سياسة و ننفذها then we have to
+
+74
+00:05:18,970 --> 00:05:21,350
+monitor this policy لازم نعمل monitoring
+
+75
+00:05:21,350 --> 00:05:25,790
+Monitoring يعني نتابع and to receive feedback يعني
+
+76
+00:05:25,790 --> 00:05:30,900
+for instance إذا كانت ال monitoring .. إذا كان ال
+
+77
+00:05:30,900 --> 00:05:36,340
+return و ال risk احنا we said the return for
+
+78
+00:05:36,340 --> 00:05:41,000
+instance is seven percent and after three months
+
+79
+00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,980
+we calculate the return and we find it is three
+
+80
+00:05:44,980 --> 00:05:48,580
+percent so what we can do is just we try to update
+
+81
+00:05:48,580 --> 00:05:52,200
+our policy to see what is the problem to evaluate
+
+82
+00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:57,700
+the .. to see what are the challenges والتحديات هذه
+
+83
+00:05:57,700 --> 00:06:04,980
+تجعل الراتب يتخلص من 7%، فهي مهمة التحكم،
+
+84
+00:06:04,980 --> 00:06:10,260
+التتعامل، وتبقى متتعامل مع ال .. ومع ذلك، الناس
+
+85
+00:06:10,260 --> 00:06:15,440
+الذين يتحكمون بطريقة الاستثمار ليسوا نفس الناس
+
+86
+00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,810
+الذين يقومون بوضع الطريقة يعني الناس اللي بيحطوا
+
+87
+00:06:18,810 --> 00:06:21,930
+السياسة الاستثمار مش هم الناس اللي بي .. اللي
+
+88
+00:06:21,930 --> 00:06:23,870
+بيعملوا monitoring يعني شوفوا في ال .. في ال
+
+89
+00:06:23,870 --> 00:06:26,670
+governance أنتو درستوا governance ال governance
+
+90
+00:06:26,670 --> 00:06:29,990
+is .. is very important people who are evaluating
+
+91
+00:06:29,990 --> 00:06:34,030
+the .. setting the objectives يعني الناس اللي ..
+
+92
+00:06:34,030 --> 00:06:39,860
+يعني اجينا مثلا اجينا واحد شخص عادي بيبدو يستثمر و
+
+93
+00:06:39,860 --> 00:06:43,480
+احنا بشركة استثمارات فبنجلس معاها بنشوف و بناخد
+
+94
+00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:47,560
+نعمله questionnaire نعمله questionnaire و على فكرة
+
+95
+00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:51,600
+في عندنا .. في عندنا sample في عندنا sample على ال
+
+96
+00:06:51,600 --> 00:07:01,180
+questionnaire في صفحة 954 يعني
+
+97
+00:07:01,180 --> 00:07:04,460
+في عندنا صفحة .. يعني questionnaire في حوالي هيك
+
+98
+00:07:04,460 --> 00:07:12,730
+سبعة أسئلة هي ال .. ال question البسيط صفحة
+
+99
+00:07:12,730 --> 00:07:18,370
+954 يعني مثلا .. مثلا نسأل ال investor هاي الفلوس
+
+100
+00:07:18,370 --> 00:07:22,070
+من وين؟ نسأله يعني very .. very simple questions
+
+101
+00:07:22,070 --> 00:07:26,210
+the source of your .. your money من وين فلوسك؟
+
+102
+00:07:26,210 --> 00:07:31,870
+this is important لازم نعرف فلوسه من وين طبعا ليش
+
+103
+00:07:31,870 --> 00:07:34,950
+لأنه the source of investment lead us to the level
+
+104
+00:07:34,950 --> 00:07:39,340
+of risk تعطينا مستوى المخاطر، يعني إذا هي المصاري
+
+105
+00:07:39,340 --> 00:07:43,360
+تبعته تحويشة عمره، فمعناه الكلام أنه بنحطله بيها
+
+106
+00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:50,600
+في secure investments، يعني ب .. باستثمارات آمنة،
+
+107
+00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:54,120
+إذا .. إذا كان هو بيحكي okay this is for instance
+
+108
+00:07:54,120 --> 00:08:02,290
+.. this is my .. my annual income يعني كل سنة
+
+109
+00:08:02,290 --> 00:08:05,210
+بيجيني هذا ال income it's fine يعني هذا for
+
+110
+00:08:05,210 --> 00:08:09,530
+instance انا businessman ف he is more capable to
+
+111
+00:08:09,530 --> 00:08:13,330
+hold more risk than retired people يعني بيكون مصدر
+
+112
+00:08:13,330 --> 00:08:18,150
+الأموال تبعه أمن و ممكن هو يغامر أكتر من شخص هو كل
+
+113
+00:08:18,150 --> 00:08:22,210
+ال savings تبعتهم طيب إيش ال areas اللي انت حابب
+
+114
+00:08:22,210 --> 00:08:26,690
+تستثمر فيها؟ وين انت حابب تستثمر؟ نسأله أسئلة مثلا
+
+115
+00:08:26,690 --> 00:08:31,490
+شو .. قداش عدد الأسرة؟ لأن كل ما كبرت هذا الأسرة كل
+
+116
+00:08:31,490 --> 00:08:35,850
+ما كان فيه conservative أكتر طيب بتزوج ولا أعزب؟
+
+117
+00:08:35,850 --> 00:08:41,570
+ساكن بيت ملك ولا أجار؟ لأن كل .. إذا كان مالك
+
+118
+00:08:41,570 --> 00:08:45,550
+بيكون .. بيكون قدرته على المخاطر أعلى من لو كان
+
+119
+00:08:45,550 --> 00:08:50,230
+اتأجر البيت لأنه فيه بيكون أكتر .. مقيم ولا .. ولا
+
+120
+00:08:50,230 --> 00:08:53,510
+أجنبي؟ مثلا في بعض الدول مثلا في الخليج العربي ولا
+
+121
+00:08:53,510 --> 00:08:58,480
+بال .. ولا بأوروبا بسأل أنت مقيم ولا أجنبي؟ يعني
+
+122
+00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,560
+مواطن ولا أجنبي فإذا كان مواطن بيكون فيه ال risk
+
+123
+00:09:01,560 --> 00:09:04,460
+تبقى أقل من ال .. إذا كان أجنبي because the
+
+124
+00:09:04,460 --> 00:09:06,440
+foreign people they can easily .. they can leave
+
+125
+00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:10,400
+the country at anytime لأن هدول ممكن يغادروا البلد
+
+126
+00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,280
+في أي وقت so you have to be careful with them so 
+
+127
+00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,640
+this is very important when you are determining
+
+128
+00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:18,840
+the level of risk and when you are designing the
+
+129
+00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:22,600
+policy so الناس اللي بيحطوا ال objectives و ال
+
+130
+00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:27,000
+constraints بيكون عبارة عن ال .. some people Okay
+
+131
+00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:31,020
+different people setting the policy and different
+
+132
+00:09:31,020 --> 00:09:35,880
+people reporting or monitoring the policy يعني
+
+133
+00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,400
+بيكون تقريبا أنه ثلاث أشخاص طالما إحنا بنحكي عن
+
+134
+00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,660
+investment companies شركات الاستثمار و للأسف شديد
+
+135
+00:09:41,660 --> 00:09:45,300
+عشان نعمل reflection طالما إحنا بنحكي عن مناطق
+
+136
+00:09:45,300 --> 00:09:49,980
+السلطة الفلسطينية في كثير مشاكل بتصير بسبب عدم
+
+137
+00:09:49,980 --> 00:09:53,510
+فهمنا ل investment policy عدم فهم أنّها سياسة
+
+138
+00:09:53,510 --> 00:09:56,990
+الاستثمار يكون شخص معاه فلوس يعني saving و بيروح
+
+139
+00:09:56,990 --> 00:10:00,700
+لأي واحد و بيقوله just invest on me و هذا الشخص اللي
+
+140
+00:10:00,700 --> 00:10:03,880
+بيعمل investment هو بيحط نفسه ال objective و هو
+
+141
+00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:05,980
+نفسه بيحط ال design policy و هو نفسه بيعمل ال
+
+142
+00:10:05,980 --> 00:10:09,860
+monitoring و ال evaluating كمان لازم يكون في ناس
+
+143
+00:10:09,860 --> 00:10:13,240
+خارج ال .. ال .. هذه ال company some governmental
+
+144
+00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,200
+institutions they have to keep their eyes on these
+
+145
+00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:20,220
+institutions يعني لازم يخلوا بقى انهم يتطلعوا على
+
+146
+00:10:20,220 --> 00:10:24,880
+هذه ال institutions حتى يتأكدوا أنّ هدول they are
+
+147
+00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:28,060
+following the rules and they are not putting the
+
+148
+00:10:28,060 --> 00:10:32,350
+people money at risk يعني ما يحطوش مصاري الناس تحت
+
+149
+00:10:32,350 --> 00:10:35,770
+الخطر، يعني أعطيكم مثال بسيط، إذا كان .. إذا كان
+
+150
+00:10:35,770 --> 00:10:40,850
+investment manager لما حدد ال investment manager
+
+151
+00:10:40,850 --> 00:10:45,750
+اجاله مثلا .. أعطيتكم مثال مثلا، بدوا يستثمر
+
+152
+00:10:45,750 --> 00:10:50,520
+الأيتام Okay طبعا أكيد أنّ the level of risk is
+
+153
+00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:54,160
+very low مستوى المخاطر تبع دول الناس بيكون مخفض
+
+154
+00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,900
+هذا ال investor manager he or she should have a
+
+155
+00:10:58,900 --> 00:11:01,220
+good experience to manage people money لازم يكون
+
+156
+00:11:01,220 --> 00:11:05,700
+عنده خبرة كويسة في استثمار الأموال فإذا هذا الراجل
+
+157
+00:11:05,700 --> 00:11:10,360
+عمل خسائر 95% of the orphanages people money إذا
+
+158
+00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:15,270
+خسر الناس 95% من أموالهم هذا المفروض يعني يكون في
+
+159
+00:11:15,270 --> 00:11:21,430
+legal issues against him يكون في إجراءات قانونية
+
+160
+00:11:21,430 --> 00:11:28,190
+لإنّ هو .. هو عمل evaluation okay و عمل investment
+
+161
+00:11:28,190 --> 00:11:32,850
+policy و بعدين خسر الناس فلوسهم ف legally قانونيا
+
+162
+00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:37,180
+في قانون الشركات الاستثمار المفروض he has to .. to
+
+163
+00:11:37,180 --> 00:11:40,280
+be responsible about the .. about this investment،
+
+164
+00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,740
+بعكس .. بعكس لو كان آه لازم يتحمل المسؤولية، بعكس
+
+165
+00:11:43,740 --> 00:11:47,120
+طبعا إحنا بنحكي عن قانون الشركات الاستثمار، هذا في
+
+166
+00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:51,780
+ال united states هذول في الولايات المتحدة و أوروبا
+
+167
+00:11:51,780 --> 00:11:57,420
+يعني مثلا هدول الناس اللي mislead
+
+168
+00:11:57,420 --> 00:12:01,360
+أو يسيئوا استثمار أموال الناس بعكس لو أنا أعطيكم
+
+169
+00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:05,200
+مثال ثاني لو في ناس very high risk و خسرنالهم مش
+
+170
+00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:09,400
+مش مشكلة بس الناس ال low risk و روحنا خسرنالهم
+
+171
+00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:14,140
+مصاريهم كلهم it is a problem فأنّه إحنا ال investor
+
+172
+00:12:14,140 --> 00:12:20,330
+manager لازم يكون is efficient لازم يكون كفء و إلا
+
+173
+00:12:20,330 --> 00:12:24,830
+ما بنفعش يكون هو .. يعني مش أي واحد والله فتح دكانة
+
+174
+00:12:24,830 --> 00:12:27,710
+استثمار و قال يلا بنستثمر لأم مصاري هالناس و
+
+175
+00:12:27,710 --> 00:12:30,830
+بالأخير لأنّه هذا بدخل في ال .. في .. في قضايا
+
+176
+00:12:30,830 --> 00:12:35,810
+الأمن الاقتصادي وإذا الأمن اقتصادي يعني جمعنا
+
+177
+00:12:35,810 --> 00:12:38,970
+مليارات الدولارات و راحت خسارة الدولة وبالتالي
+
+178
+00:12:38,970 --> 00:12:42,770
+الدولة هي مفروض .. مفترض أنّها تسدّ لكن الدولة اللي
+
+179
+00:12:42,770 --> 00:12:48,250
+ما بتستطيعش تدير أو تراقب هذه شركات الاستثمار هتصوّر
+
+180
+00:12:48,250 --> 00:12:51,970
+هتعمل فوضى في البلد وبالتالي يعني بالنسبة ل
+
+181
+00:12:51,970 --> 00:12:55,650
+investment regulations we have to to .. to consider
+
+182
+00:12:55,650 --> 00:12:58,310
+the importance of monitoring the investment
+
+183
+00:12:58,310 --> 00:13:02,030
+companies فعشان هيك ال CFA is important هدول CFA
+
+184
+00:13:02,030 --> 00:13:05,530
+أو الهيئة تجميع الاستثمار أو .. أو قاين الاستثمار
+
+185
+00:13:05,530 --> 00:13:11,210
+كثير مهمة أنّ إحنا نعرفها و هذا السبب أنّ أنا جبتكم
+
+186
+00:13:11,210 --> 00:13:14,710
+يعني .. يعني باللقاءات الأخيرة Specifying
+
+187
+00:13:14,710 --> 00:13:21,690
+objectives كيف إحنا نحدد ال objectives Investment
+
+188
+00:13:21,690 --> 00:13:24,930
+managers must assess the level of risk must خدوا
+
+189
+00:13:24,930 --> 00:13:30,410
+بالكم must يعني مش شد ولا .. ولا would ولا ..
+
+190
+00:13:30,410 --> 00:13:33,830
+إلزام أنّ يعملوا assessment لازم يعملوا إيش؟
+
+191
+00:13:33,830 --> 00:13:38,330
+assessment لأنّه إذا عملوا assessment غلط who is in
+
+192
+00:13:38,330 --> 00:13:43,490
+charge؟ مين المسؤول؟ مش ال investors هم ال
+
+193
+00:13:43,490 --> 00:13:47,570
+investment managers ال investment managers هم they
+
+194
+00:13:47,570 --> 00:13:51,690
+are responsible they are in charge investment
+
+195
+00:13:51,690 --> 00:13:54,230
+managers must assess the level of risk investors
+
+196
+00:13:54,230 --> 00:13:58,920
+can tolerate in pursuit of higher returns يعني لازم
+
+197
+00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:05,380
+هم يعملوا تقييم للمستثمرين
+
+198
+00:14:05,380 --> 00:14:09,620
+ويعرفوا قد إيش مستوى المخاطر اللي ممكن يتحملوه وقد إيش
+
+199
+00:14:09,620 --> 00:14:12,960
+العائد اللي ممكن هم يطلبوه، هذا مسؤولية من؟
+
+200
+00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:14,240
+مسؤولية ال investment managers
+
+201
+00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:24,100
+Okay يعمى كثير investment managers راحوا على
+
+202
+00:14:24,100 --> 00:14:29,620
+المحاكم وانحبسوا لأنّهم .. لأنّ هذي باعتبار حسب
+
+203
+00:14:29,620 --> 00:14:32,240
+القانون الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية و في ال UK كمان
+
+204
+00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:38,040
+بيعتبروا أنّ هذي أمانة ال .. يعني as a trustees
+
+205
+00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:42,860
+يعني كأمناء على أموال الناس أنت المخاطر تبعتي مثلا
+
+206
+00:14:42,860 --> 00:14:47,740
+احتمال أنّ أنا أخسر 5% إذا تجاوزت الخسارة تبعتي 5%
+
+207
+00:14:47,740 --> 00:14:52,660
+you have to close the fund يعني أنت قدرت كمدير
+
+208
+00:14:52,660 --> 00:14:55,660
+استثمار أنّ أنا احتمالات الخسارة من رأس مالي 5% is
+
+209
+00:14:55,660 --> 00:15:01,040
+5% is fine لكن إذا تجاوزت هذا المبلغ 5% 10% 12%
+
+210
+00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:04,460
+لازم تسكروا الاستثمار أو خلاص يعني يعمل
+
+211
+00:15:04,460 --> 00:15:08,140
+liquidation لل investment أحسن ما يروح يخسر الناس
+
+212
+00:15:08,140 --> 00:15:12,200
+بقية الأموال تبعتهم Objectives and risks tolerance
+
+213
+00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,740
+differ by type of investor، هذا حكيناه، يعني ال
+
+214
+00:15:15,740 --> 00:15:19,720
+risk و ال return تختلف من شخص إلى آخر، okay؟ يعني
+
+215
+00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:24,460
+في ناس بتحمل و يخسروا 5% من أموالهم و في ناس بتحمل
+
+216
+00:15:24,460 --> 00:15:28,360
+و يخسروا 50% من أموالهم، it depends يعني زي ال
+
+217
+00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,680
+people they are enjoying with rest ممكن يخسروا 95%
+
+218
+00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:38,480
+of their principal يعني ممكن 95% يتحملوا because
+
+219
+00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:45,020
+they have a good saving نطلع هاي ال chart هاي ال
+
+220
+00:15:45,020 --> 00:15:50,880
+chart summarizing the investment policy هذه حطتها
+
+221
+00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,760
+ال cfa institute investment management process
+
+222
+00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:59,940
+و هذه عملتها على شركات الاستثمار أنّ بحيث شركات
+
+223
+00:15:59,940 --> 00:16:03,380
+الاستثمار يلتزموا بهذه ال process the first thing
+
+224
+00:16:03,380 --> 00:16:07,580
+is the planning لازم يعملوا planning تخطيط and I
+
+225
+00:16:07,580 --> 00:16:13,560
+will give execution and feedback إذا فينا ثلاث
+
+226
+00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:16,480
+مراحل لازم نمشي فيهم the first one is planning
+
+227
+00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:20,250
+هتاخد هذا الجانب planning then execution then
+
+228
+00:16:20,250 --> 00:16:26,190
+feedback the first one is planning أول مرحلة
+
+229
+00:16:26,190 --> 00:16:30,030
+planning لازم
+
+230
+00:16:30,030 --> 00:16:33,490
+يعملوا details specifications and quantification
+
+231
+00:16:33,490 --> 00:16:38,770
+of investor objectives لازم يتعمقوا كثير في فهم
+
+232
+00:16:38,770 --> 00:16:45,090
+حاجة المستثمر يعني ممكن تلاقي questionnaire بضم
+
+233
+00:16:45,090 --> 00:16:48,950
+ثلاثين صفحة بس عشان يعرفوا what exactly the
+
+234
+00:16:48,950 --> 00:16:54,830
+investors objectives تمام؟ يعني مثلا وين ساكن؟ كم
+
+235
+00:16:54,830 --> 00:16:59,250
+مرة انتقل من السكن؟ مثلا أسماء أفراد العائلة
+
+236
+00:16:59,250 --> 00:17:05,030
+تبعتهم؟ شغلات مثلا مكان العمل تبعته؟ كده إيه سنة
+
+237
+00:17:05,030 --> 00:17:08,490
+في العمل؟ عدد سنوات الخبرة تبعته؟ الراتب تبعته؟
+
+238
+00:17:08,490 --> 00:17:11,030
+إيش فيه عنده نفقات أخرى؟ إيش فيه عنده أموال أخرى؟
+
+239
+00:17:11,030 --> 00:17:14,990
+إيش فيه .. كثير شغلات حتى الإنسان اللي بقبل الطلب
+
+240
+00:17:16,210 --> 00:17:19,750
+بيشعر this is break to the privacy، هذا يعني
+
+241
+00:17:19,750 --> 00:17:23,470
+بتدخلوا بخصوصيتك، هم ما بتدخلوا بخصوصيتك because
+
+242
+00:17:23,470 --> 00:17:27,340
+this is regulation of the investment فهم عشان
+
+243
+00:17:27,340 --> 00:17:31,340
+يعرفوا بالضبط أنت شو بتقدر تتحمل، شو عايز، شو كذا،
+
+244
+00:17:31,340 --> 00:17:34,160
+فلازم .. and they .. sometimes they arrange a .. a
+
+245
+00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,340
+special meeting with the .. with the investment
+
+246
+00:17:36,340 --> 00:17:39,100
+managers يعني بيعملوا special meetings، بي ..
+
+247
+00:17:39,100 --> 00:17:40,860
+بينادوا، بيقعدوا مع ال investment manager،
+
+248
+00:17:40,860 --> 00:17:45,140
+بيتحدثوا مع بعض، و .. أساس يفهم what exactly he or
+
+249
+00:17:45,140 --> 00:17:49,980
+she wants بالضبط شو هم .. شو بدهم، تمام؟ و عادة
+
+250
+00:17:49,980 --> 00:17:53,640
+بيكون هذا is videoing، بيكون هو مصور و documented 
+
+251
+00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:59,220
+موثقيعني حساس أنه فيه .. يعني لو مثلا جال أنا 
+
+252
+00:17:59,220 --> 00:18:02,840
+والله أنا بتحمل يعني عشرة في المئة يعني أخسر من
+
+253
+00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:07,000
+رأس مالي وبعدين لما احنا عملنا له assessments أن
+
+254
+00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:11,060
+هو بتحمل وروحنا أخسرناه له ستة في المئة مثلا سوق
+
+255
+00:18:11,060 --> 00:18:13,580
+الحظ ماربحش خص الستة في المئة اه أنتو سرقتونا
+
+256
+00:18:13,580 --> 00:18:18,020
+أنتوا حرمية أنتو بصار شو؟ في .. في documents أنه
+
+257
+00:18:18,020 --> 00:18:23,300
+أنت .. أرضيت في الكلام يعني وفي ناس بيعتقدوا أنه
+
+258
+00:18:23,300 --> 00:18:28,620
+investmentsللأسف شديد يعني ممكن موجودين في
+
+259
+00:18:28,620 --> 00:18:33,680
+مجتمعنا هي ربح بدون خسارة ومجرد ما يبدأ بيخسر طبعا
+
+260
+00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:39,800
+هذا مستحيل يصير اه وبيجي يقول أنتو يعني بالأخير
+
+261
+00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:43,540
+أنتوا نصابين وحرمية وكذا مش هذا الـ investment هذا
+
+262
+00:18:43,540 --> 00:18:47,200
+ما هو الـ investment هذا أنت بتحط فلوسك بودائع وكذا
+
+263
+00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:53,850
+أنت حر مش هتكون فيه خسارة this is not investment. So
+
+264
+00:18:53,850 --> 00:18:57,430
+the .. and the second thing is constraints and
+
+265
+00:18:57,430 --> 00:19:00,970
+preferences. الـ constraints هنيجي نحكي فيها زي
+
+266
+00:19:00,970 --> 00:19:03,570
+liquidity .. liquidity مثلا، دا هي الـ taxation، في
+
+267
+00:19:03,570 --> 00:19:06,010
+ناس ما بيحبوا الـ taxation، في ناس بيحبوا الـ taxation،
+
+268
+00:19:06,010 --> 00:19:09,190
+حسب كل واحد شو الـ .. شو الشغلات اللي بده إياها، و
+
+269
+00:19:09,190 --> 00:19:14,790
+بعدين الـ preferences، بعض الـ .. التفضيلات أو بعض
+
+270
+00:19:14,790 --> 00:19:19,870
+الخصائص اللي يعني بيهتم فيها الـ investors يعني
+
+271
+00:19:19,870 --> 00:19:23,990
+بالعربي احنا بدنا الـ investors نعرف معلومات عنه
+
+272
+00:19:23,990 --> 00:19:29,930
+أكثر منه from investment point of view عشان نعرف
+
+273
+00:19:29,930 --> 00:19:35,230
+كيف how to deal with his or her money بعد
+
+274
+00:19:35,230 --> 00:19:39,710
+بالـ planning during
+
+275
+00:19:39,710 --> 00:19:41,950
+the planning we set portfolio policies and
+
+276
+00:19:41,950 --> 00:19:47,210
+strategies بدنا نحدد الـ policies و الـ strategies الـ
+
+277
+00:19:47,210 --> 00:19:52,430
+policies لو احنا بنحكيها الـ policies و الـ
+
+278
+00:19:52,430 --> 00:19:57,070
+strategies اللي هو عندنا .. what is the difference
+
+279
+00:19:57,070 --> 00:19:59,670
+between policies and strategies؟ شو الفرق بين الـ
+
+280
+00:19:59,670 --> 00:20:03,770
+policies و الـ strategies؟ الـ policies بتشير بناء
+
+281
+00:20:03,770 --> 00:20:08,130
+على الـ strategies الـ policies يمركب على الـ
+
+282
+00:20:08,130 --> 00:20:10,730
+strategies، الـ strategies بيبقى أثر الشركة، الـ
+
+283
+00:20:10,730 --> 00:20:13,910
+foundation of the organizationخطوط العريضة يعني ده
+
+284
+00:20:13,910 --> 00:20:18,110
+الـ policy الخطوط العريضة لأ الـ strategy strategy و
+
+285
+00:20:18,110 --> 00:20:26,910
+الـ policies اه
+
+286
+00:20:26,910 --> 00:20:31,130
+هذه الـ tactical things هدول بتحكي عنه بـ tactical
+
+287
+00:20:31,130 --> 00:20:36,650
+اه تكتيكيت اه دراستوا strategic management مظبوط
+
+288
+00:20:36,650 --> 00:20:40,590
+لسه لسه مش خارجين أنتو يعني طيب
+
+289
+00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:47,220
+مش موضوعها هلأ لو جينا احنا نحكي هي هدول الـ
+
+290
+00:20:47,220 --> 00:20:51,040
+objectives هلأ
+
+291
+00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,940
+هي الـ investors objectives من الـ investors
+
+292
+00:20:54,940 --> 00:21:02,020
+objectives بنحدد الـ policies الـ
+
+293
+00:21:02,020 --> 00:21:05,840
+policies
+
+294
+00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:12,600
+طبعا فيه tactical thingsبيكون فيه tactical T1, T2,
+
+295
+00:21:12,700 --> 00:21:24,820
+T3 and so on بعدين بيكون عندها الـ strategy الـ
+
+296
+00:21:24,820 --> 00:21:31,360
+strategy is important الـ strategy is important the
+
+297
+00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:33,320
+main difference between policies and strategies
+
+298
+00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:39,650
+the policies are shortened objectives orأشياء
+
+299
+00:21:39,650 --> 00:21:43,030
+قصيرة طول الوقت، ولكن الاستراتيجيات طول الوقت طول
+
+300
+00:21:43,030 --> 00:21:44,530
+الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت
+
+301
+00:21:44,530 --> 00:21:45,950
+طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول
+
+302
+00:21:45,950 --> 00:21:46,870
+الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت
+
+303
+00:21:46,870 --> 00:21:47,190
+طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول
+
+304
+00:21:47,190 --> 00:21:48,910
+الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت
+
+305
+00:21:48,910 --> 00:21:55,310
+الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت طول الوقت
+
+306
+00:21:55,310 --> 00:22:05,250
+طول
+
+307
+00:22:05,250 --> 00:22:07,710
+الوقت
+
+308
+00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:17,360
+الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش،
+
+309
+00:22:17,360 --> 00:22:18,320
+الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش،
+
+310
+00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:18,480
+الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش،
+
+311
+00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:19,040
+الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش،
+
+312
+00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,960
+الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش،
+
+313
+00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,420
+الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش،
+
+314
+00:22:23,420 --> 00:22:26,740
+الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش،
+
+315
+00:22:26,740 --> 00:22:28,960
+الاستراتيجية ما بتتغيرش
+
+316
+00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,480
+but the strategy is still fixed, we cannot change
+
+317
+00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:42,440
+the strategy لأن الـ strategy بتبقى هي it is the
+
+318
+00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,880
+long term objectives but we can change يعني أعطيكم
+
+319
+00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:52,220
+مثل لو احنا الـ strategy طبعتنا أن احنا نصل ساحة
+
+320
+00:22:52,220 --> 00:22:57,140
+غزة مثلا هاي our strategy our the the the end goal
+
+321
+00:22:57,140 --> 00:23:00,430
+طبعتناطب كنا ايش الـ policy تبعتنا؟ الـ policy
+
+322
+00:23:00,430 --> 00:23:05,550
+تبعتنا ناخد الـ .. نطلع مثلا ماشي هذه policy أو
+
+323
+00:23:05,550 --> 00:23:09,610
+بالسيارة أو بالقطار أو بالطيارة هدو الـ policies
+
+324
+00:23:09,610 --> 00:23:15,990
+طيب احنا بدينا نمشي في الطريق مثلا لجينا أن الـ ..
+
+325
+00:23:15,990 --> 00:23:20,690
+في crowded وكذا واشي و .. والطريق مغلق والشرطة
+
+326
+00:23:20,690 --> 00:23:24,890
+حكيتنا غير المكان ف you can easily at the end we
+
+327
+00:23:24,890 --> 00:23:28,110
+have to .. to .. to .. to reach to the Gaza Square
+
+328
+00:23:28,110 --> 00:23:34,110
+لازم نصل لساحة لكن إذا روحنا على النصر بكون we
+
+329
+00:23:34,110 --> 00:23:37,650
+change the strategy طب it's change the strategy it
+
+330
+00:23:37,650 --> 00:23:41,670
+means we unable to meet the investors' و objectives
+
+331
+00:23:41,670 --> 00:23:44,510
+يعني معناه كدا احنا حققنا .. ما حققناش أهداف الـ
+
+332
+00:23:44,510 --> 00:23:47,730
+investors فالـ policies we can .. we can amend the
+
+333
+00:23:47,730 --> 00:23:53,800
+policies in order to achieve our strategy، حتى نحقق
+
+334
+00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,620
+الاستراتيجية تبعتنا، this is the important things
+
+335
+00:23:56,620 --> 00:24:00,660
+فاحنا
+
+336
+00:24:00,660 --> 00:24:06,300
+بنعمل designing للـ policies و للـ strategies، بعدين
+
+337
+00:24:06,300 --> 00:24:10,250
+we see the capital market expectations we will see
+
+338
+00:24:10,250 --> 00:24:13,250
+the capital market because these policies and
+
+339
+00:24:13,250 --> 00:24:15,770
+strategies will be implemented in the capital
+
+340
+00:24:15,770 --> 00:24:21,510
+market لأن هذا هننفذه بالسوق بالسوق المالي and
+
+341
+00:24:21,510 --> 00:24:25,090
+when we are applying strategies and policies we
+
+342
+00:24:25,090 --> 00:24:30,270
+face some problems or some challenges for instance
+
+343
+00:24:30,270 --> 00:24:34,550
+we will see the relevant economic things economy
+
+344
+00:24:34,550 --> 00:24:41,630
+may change الاقتصاد بتغيرsocial things الوضع
+
+345
+00:24:41,630 --> 00:24:45,430
+الاجتماعي بتغير political issues الوضع السياسي
+
+346
+00:24:45,430 --> 00:24:48,970
+بتغير and sector considerations بعض الصناعات برضه
+
+347
+00:24:48,970 --> 00:24:53,010
+بتتغير so in this part when we are designing
+
+348
+00:24:53,010 --> 00:24:55,770
+policies and strategies we have to consider what
+
+349
+00:24:55,770 --> 00:24:59,050
+are the changes could be during our investment
+
+350
+00:24:59,050 --> 00:25:03,780
+process يعني ما هي التغييرات وما هي الشغلاء
+
+351
+00:25:03,780 --> 00:25:09,200
+because we are not living in a separate moon يعني
+
+352
+00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,760
+احنا ما بنعيشش في قمر منفصل no we are living in
+
+353
+00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:17,160
+this ground and in this land and it's affected by
+
+354
+00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,000
+economic, social
+
+355
+00:25:23,360 --> 00:25:27,540
+environments such as some legal considerations
+
+356
+00:25:27,540 --> 00:25:31,200
+يعني بعض القوانين ممكن تيجي تتغير وبالتالي we have
+
+357
+00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,820
+to consider all of these things and to see how
+
+358
+00:25:33,820 --> 00:25:37,660
+these changes may influence on our investment
+
+359
+00:25:37,660 --> 00:25:41,180
+policy and we change these policies according to
+
+360
+00:25:41,180 --> 00:25:44,100
+the to the changes of the environments because
+
+361
+00:25:44,100 --> 00:25:49,750
+because we are living in open environments okay. So
+
+362
+00:25:49,750 --> 00:25:53,670
+this is the first part of planning. إذا أي واحد
+
+363
+00:25:53,670 --> 00:25:59,430
+بده يعمل investments to be fair with the .. with
+
+364
+00:25:59,430 --> 00:26:02,070
+.. with the investors أن احنا هاي الـ policy
+
+365
+00:26:02,070 --> 00:26:05,890
+بتاعتنا وهاي احتمالات المشاكل اللي ممكن تصير يعني
+
+366
+00:26:05,890 --> 00:26:10,270
+مثلا زي طبيب بوصف دوا معين بيقول للمريض بيقول له
+
+367
+00:26:10,270 --> 00:26:14,550
+هذا الدوا بدك تاخده من كذا، في عندك مشاكل كذا كذا،
+
+368
+00:26:14,550 --> 00:26:18,250
+بدك تاخد بالك، في conditions لأن it works in a
+
+369
+00:26:18,250 --> 00:26:20,830
+special conditions if you ignore these conditions
+
+370
+00:26:20,830 --> 00:26:25,770
+the medicine could not be worked ممكن ما يشتغلش and
+
+371
+00:26:25,770 --> 00:26:27,750
+the same the policy it works in a special
+
+372
+00:26:27,750 --> 00:26:30,850
+condition if these conditions change you have to
+
+373
+00:26:30,850 --> 00:26:34,770
+manage the policies according to the changes in
+
+374
+00:26:34,770 --> 00:26:37,630
+the environment حسب التغيرات اللي ممكن تصير بال
+
+375
+00:26:37,630 --> 00:26:43,280
+environment. Okay execution التنفيذ or the 
+
+376
+00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:51,180
+implementation في عملية التنفيذ we have to think 
+
+377
+00:26:51,180 --> 00:26:56,220
+in from the .. from top down or from the ..  طلعوا
+
+378
+00:26:56,220 --> 00:27:01,440
+الشكل السهم السهم في أسهم طالعة نازلة okay for
+
+379
+00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:05,880
+instance some people mistakenly think the
+
+380
+00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:07,560
+monitoring is starting at the end
+
+381
+00:27:11,370 --> 00:27:15,170
+هذا اللي احنا بنفهمه صح but this is wrong the
+
+382
+00:27:15,170 --> 00:27:18,450
+monitoring is starting from the first for instance
+
+383
+00:27:18,450 --> 00:27:21,350
+when we are sitting with the investors and setting
+
+384
+00:27:21,350 --> 00:27:26,410
+his or her objectives we may ask whether this
+
+385
+00:27:26,410 --> 00:27:31,070
+objective fits this investors needs or not يعني
+
+386
+00:27:31,070 --> 00:27:34,570
+مثلا احنا قيمنا هذا ال investors هنشوف فعلا هذا
+
+387
+00:27:34,570 --> 00:27:39,440
+التقييم صح ولا غلط ممكن أن فيه bias إيش يعني bias؟
+
+388
+00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:43,600
+يعني مثلا إجاني أنا قريب و .. وعملتله meeting و
+
+389
+00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:47,800
+كذا و إشي و هو enjoyable meeting و حطتله مثلا نقاط
+
+390
+00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,180
+معينة في أن هذا ال risk و هذا ال return لازم يكون
+
+391
+00:27:51,180 --> 00:27:57,400
+في other people evaluate my .. my documents هذا ال
+
+392
+00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,720
+documents مباشرة بيروح لل back office و ال back
+
+393
+00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:04,520
+office مباشرة بيعملوا evaluation حتى لتقييمي أنا
+
+394
+00:28:07,180 --> 00:28:11,840
+لتأكد من أنني أخذت الحكومة الصحية لهذا المستخدم
+
+395
+00:28:13,420 --> 00:28:18,480
+يعني مثلا روحنا احنا حاكولنا انتوا مهمتكوا تديروا
+
+396
+00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:24,020
+to invest مثلا في عندنا ناس هدول الشهداء مثلا
+
+397
+00:28:24,020 --> 00:28:29,720
+زوجاتهم وأولادهم بيجيولهم أموال فهذه الأموال بحتاج
+
+398
+00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:33,800
+أن حد يعملها managing يعملها managing إدارة ممكن
+
+399
+00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,840
+يكونوا أطفال صغار وبتسألي بيناحط ال policy
+
+400
+00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:41,640
+بتلاقمهم إيه جواحد ماعندهوش إبراهات policy معينة و
+
+401
+00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,700
+بعدين لما .. لازم تيجي لل back office، ال back
+
+402
+00:28:44,700 --> 00:28:47,240
+office يتطلع، this is a right policy لإنه يخرب
+
+403
+00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,800
+بيتك إذا بتحط إشي غلط لهدول الناسمظبوط ولا لأ؟
+
+404
+00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:56,520
+يعني إشي .. يعني بيصير إشي مأساة وفي كتير انفلة ..
+
+405
+00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:00,060
+كتير يعني إحنا في المجتمع بنشوف جثث وحوادث
+
+406
+00:29:00,060 --> 00:29:04,100
+بالمجتمع وعندكوا أكيد جثث أكتر مني في هذه المواضيع
+
+407
+00:29:04,100 --> 00:29:09,200
+فلازم نتأكد يعني مثلا أموال الأيتام في عندنا
+
+408
+00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,940
+مؤسسات بترعى أموال الأيتام و بتدير أموال الأيتام
+
+409
+00:29:11,940 --> 00:29:15,700
+أنا شوفت تجربة في .. في بريطانيا اللي هي ال mental
+
+410
+00:29:15,700 --> 00:29:20,220
+ill people invest of mentally ill people fund، إيش
+
+411
+00:29:20,220 --> 00:29:23,100
+ال mental ill؟ ال .. الناس اللي شوية عندهم مشاكل
+
+412
+00:29:23,100 --> 00:29:27,680
+عقلية، اللي مش راكزين .. عندهم مشاكل في .. في
+
+413
+00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,300
+العقل، ال mental ill دي disabled people، ما نندهش
+
+414
+00:29:29,300 --> 00:29:31,320
+تقول disabled physically، لكن عندهم mentally ill
+
+415
+00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,700
+people، هدول ال mentally ill people في ناس عندهم
+
+416
+00:29:34,700 --> 00:29:39,080
+ثروات مثلا أبوه غني، أمه غنية، سته غنية، المهم
+
+417
+00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:42,520
+بالأخير في عنده ثروة هذه الثروة we cannot leave
+
+418
+00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:47,280
+according to the investment law these people have
+
+419
+00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,140
+to be sponsored or have to be sponsored by
+
+420
+00:29:50,140 --> 00:29:52,320
+investment company لازم ال investment company هي
+
+421
+00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,980
+تشرف و تدير الاستثمارات تبعته طب إذا ال investor
+
+422
+00:29:56,980 --> 00:29:59,780
+manager design a wrong investment policy who
+
+423
+00:29:59,780 --> 00:30:04,020
+discovers this؟ مين بدو يتقلل؟ monitoring لازم
+
+424
+00:30:04,020 --> 00:30:07,980
+monitoring طب هدول حرام يعني ال ال people هدول إذا
+
+425
+00:30:07,980 --> 00:30:11,660
+ماحفش حد يدير باله على أموالهم بطريقة صحيحة
+
+426
+00:30:11,660 --> 00:30:15,340
+بالأخير هيصفوا في الشوارع okay where is the social
+
+427
+00:30:15,340 --> 00:30:18,970
+responsibility؟ وإذا .. إذا ال investor manager
+
+428
+00:30:18,970 --> 00:30:22,830
+mistakenly bought the wrong investment policy إذا
+
+429
+00:30:22,830 --> 00:30:25,330
+حاطت ال wrong investment policy معاكلام هي ..
+
+430
+00:30:25,330 --> 00:30:29,570
+هيكون ال .. so فى ناس هيكونوا are separated ..
+
+431
+00:30:29,570 --> 00:30:33,470
+separate management looking at the .. the
+
+432
+00:30:33,470 --> 00:30:35,770
+investment policy and .. and evaluate the
+
+433
+00:30:35,770 --> 00:30:39,650
+investment policy before kicking off the plan
+
+434
+00:30:39,650 --> 00:30:44,710
+kicking off يعني قبل ما إحنا نبدأ عملية ال .. ال
+
+435
+00:30:44,710 --> 00:30:48,690
+investments يعني so the monitoring is starting from
+
+436
+00:30:48,690 --> 00:30:53,910
+the first to the end وبيبدوا يتبعوهم كيف الإجراءات
+
+437
+00:30:53,910 --> 00:30:59,410
+اللي .. اللي بتتم then in the execution we have to
+
+438
+00:30:59,410 --> 00:31:03,360
+look at the portfolio construction portfolio
+
+439
+00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,280
+construction لما احنا نبدأ portfolio المحفظة
+
+440
+00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,900
+الاستثمارية ل .. المحفظة الاستثمارية لازم تكون to
+
+441
+00:31:09,900 --> 00:31:12,600
+meet the .. the investor objective يعني is linked
+
+442
+00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:17,060
+with the investor objective asset allocation وين
+
+443
+00:31:17,060 --> 00:31:20,420
+احنا هنستثمر الأموال تبعتنا هنستثمرهم ب stocks ولا
+
+444
+00:31:20,420 --> 00:31:22,740
+ب bonds ولا ب equities ولا .. وين .. وين احنا
+
+445
+00:31:22,740 --> 00:31:26,920
+هنستثمرهم و هدول كمان بنعملهم monitoring portfolio
+
+446
+00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,160
+optimization or optimizing نعمل portfolio
+
+447
+00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,380
+optimizing يعني قدر المستطاع نعمل تخفيض في تكاليف
+
+448
+00:31:33,380 --> 00:31:39,020
+إدارة ال portfolio and finally in this process
+
+449
+00:31:39,020 --> 00:31:45,220
+implementation and execution تنفيذ و تطبيق كمان
+
+450
+00:31:45,220 --> 00:31:47,920
+مرة شوفوا ال monitoring هي موجودة هنا و في
+
+451
+00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,660
+monitoring تحت as I said it is from the first and
+
+452
+00:31:51,660 --> 00:31:54,560
+from the end يعني في ال .. في البداية و في النهاية
+
+453
+00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:59,920
+لازم يكون عندي on-time monitoring on-time
+
+454
+00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:03,100
+monitoring يكون في عندي في نفس ال .. كل مستند
+
+455
+00:32:03,100 --> 00:32:07,940
+بيطلع من ال .. ال execution department مباشرة is a
+
+456
+00:32:07,940 --> 00:32:11,500
+copy going to the monitoring department أو
+
+457
+00:32:11,500 --> 00:32:15,360
+auditing department يعني ال .. أي .. أي خطوة احنا
+
+458
+00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,840
+بنعملها في .. في التطبيق مباشرة بروح نسخة منها على
+
+459
+00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,660
+ال .. ال .. يعني مثلا لو احنا روحنا .. اشترينا
+
+460
+00:32:22,660 --> 00:32:28,540
+قطعة أرض مثلا و هذه قطعة أرض مثلا اللي هتتناسب مع
+
+461
+00:32:28,540 --> 00:32:31,840
+ال investment .. ال investment policy يعني
+
+462
+00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:36,340
+اشتريناها في مناطق يعني فيها مخاطر و احنا قاعدين
+
+463
+00:32:36,340 --> 00:32:40,680
+نستثمر في أموال الفقراء أو أموال مثلا الأيتام طبعا
+
+464
+00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,980
+هذه subject to risk subject to high risk فمباشرة
+
+465
+00:32:43,980 --> 00:32:48,860
+من حد ما يصير يعني بطلب أذن لشراء أذن شراء العقد
+
+466
+00:32:48,860 --> 00:32:51,100
+شراء الأرض فمباشرة أذن الشراء بروح على ال
+
+467
+00:32:51,100 --> 00:32:52,860
+monitoring بيجيوا تعالوا ال monitoring يقولوهم
+
+468
+00:32:52,860 --> 00:32:55,560
+اسمعوا شو هذا اللي بتسويوا انتوا فيه you cannot do
+
+469
+00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,120
+this because this is high risk فبروحوا برجعولهم
+
+470
+00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,920
+إياها and they do it again فبتلاحظوا أنه في
+
+471
+00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:09,220
+monitoring on time اتأكد لأنه هي .. so the failure
+
+472
+00:33:09,220 --> 00:33:14,920
+لما يسير في انهيار الانهيار بيكون ال probability
+
+473
+00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:19,640
+of the failure is very very small يعني احتمال أن
+
+474
+00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:24,730
+الخسارة بتكون كتير محدودة لأن في monitoring
+
+475
+00:33:24,730 --> 00:33:28,790
+economic and market input factors بنشوف .. بنتابع
+
+476
+00:33:28,790 --> 00:33:32,350
+الاقتصاد و ال social things و كذا و بنشوف كيف ممكن
+
+477
+00:33:32,350 --> 00:33:40,190
+يتأثر على ال .. الاستثمار and the last thing which
+
+478
+00:33:40,190 --> 00:33:44,790
+is not the last because it is endless process it
+
+479
+00:33:44,790 --> 00:33:51,270
+is endless process endless no end so it is endless
+
+480
+00:33:51,270 --> 00:33:56,540
+process feedback التأكيد هو إجراء مجالات الانفصال
+
+481
+00:33:56,540 --> 00:34:02,940
+والمجالات الانفصالية
+
+482
+00:34:04,100 --> 00:34:06,820
+if we have problems so where is the problems and
+
+483
+00:34:06,820 --> 00:34:10,120
+then we update the process, the policy if we meet
+
+484
+00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:14,200
+the objective then we develop these objectives
+
+485
+00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,020
+بنعمل developing لل objectives يعني خلينا نعطيكوا
+
+486
+00:34:17,020 --> 00:34:20,100
+مثال insurance companies اليوم ال insurance
+
+487
+00:34:20,100 --> 00:34:24,520
+companies هم أكتر الناس مالكين لل investment
+
+488
+00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:30,250
+companies شركات التأمين فهول حققوا أهداف التأمين
+
+489
+00:34:30,250 --> 00:34:35,730
+تبعهم فصار عندهم في عندهم فائدة فهذه الفائدة ساعدهم
+
+490
+00:34:35,730 --> 00:34:40,390
+يفكروا في في في higher objectives في أهداف عالية
+
+491
+00:34:40,390 --> 00:34:43,990
+أكتر فصاروا to invest صار يعمل controlling over
+
+492
+00:34:43,990 --> 00:34:46,730
+some companies صاروا هم يسيطروا على بعض شركات
+
+493
+00:34:46,730 --> 00:34:52,010
+prestigious companies يعني شركات معروفة ومشهورة أن
+
+494
+00:34:52,010 --> 00:34:57,980
+هم بيسيطروا عليها this is example of components of
+
+495
+00:34:57,980 --> 00:35:00,900
+the investment management process هده أمثلة ممكن
+
+496
+00:35:00,900 --> 00:35:04,660
+ترجع أقولها this is example of components of the
+
+497
+00:35:04,660 --> 00:35:07,780
+investment policy statement يعني مثلا أشوف أول
+
+498
+00:35:07,780 --> 00:35:10,700
+واحدة brief client description أعطينا معلومات عامة
+
+499
+00:35:10,700 --> 00:35:14,900
+عن نفسك شو أنت شو إسمك غيرت إسمك ولا لأ؟ إيش ال
+
+500
+00:35:14,900 --> 00:35:19,040
+nicknames بتستخدمها؟ لأنه يعني احنا بالعالم العربي
+
+501
+00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:23,680
+الـ nicknames كتير عندنا يعني أبو محمد who is أبو
+
+502
+00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:27,870
+محمد، أبو علي, who is ابو علي؟ اعطيني اسمك and
+
+503
+00:35:27,870 --> 00:35:31,210
+possible nicknames اسمك والـ .. والـ possible
+
+504
+00:35:31,210 --> 00:35:33,770
+nicknames بتاعتك اعطيني إياها, purpose of
+
+505
+00:35:33,770 --> 00:35:36,470
+establishing policies and guidelines و الـ duties,
+
+506
+00:35:36,930 --> 00:35:40,330
+إيش بتشتغل و إيش بتعمل و .. و مين الـ referees
+
+507
+00:35:40,330 --> 00:35:43,810
+تبعونك و مين صحابك و مين قصصك كل هذه we have to ..
+
+508
+00:35:43,810 --> 00:35:49,550
+يعني مرة أنا بيت كـ questionnaire كانوا .. هو سألني
+
+509
+00:35:49,550 --> 00:35:52,230
+بالـ questionnaire who are the close friends for
+
+510
+00:35:52,230 --> 00:35:57,910
+you من أقرب أصدقاء عندك؟ طيب جوابت الـ .. جوابت okay
+
+511
+00:35:57,910 --> 00:36:01,290
+فلان وفلان وفلان حتى أنه تعمل الـ cheating صعب طيب
+
+512
+00:36:01,290 --> 00:36:06,250
+أعطينا الـ emails تبعتهم if it is possible if it is
+
+513
+00:36:06,250 --> 00:36:11,010
+possible طبعا بالحالة هم مباشرة من حد ما أنه to
+
+514
+00:36:11,010 --> 00:36:14,850
+fill this application نسخة من الـ .. من الـ .. من الـ
+
+515
+00:36:14,850 --> 00:36:19,690
+application هتروح لهم و هيسألوهم أسئلة very very
+
+516
+00:36:19,690 --> 00:36:24,110
+confidential questionsأه confidential questions
+
+517
+00:36:24,110 --> 00:36:29,710
+يعني مثلا راح واحد جاب يعني كتير بتصير جاب مليون
+
+518
+00:36:29,710 --> 00:36:32,090
+دولار وحكى لشركة الاستثمار أن أنا بدأ أستثمر
+
+519
+00:36:32,090 --> 00:36:39,110
+عندكم طب هدول يمكن زلمة حرامي يعني بنجوسان أو غسيل
+
+520
+00:36:39,110 --> 00:36:42,650
+أموال أو .. أو الاخره so they have to ensure them
+
+521
+00:36:42,650 --> 00:36:46,810
+لأن هدول they are not put their .. their position
+
+522
+00:36:46,810 --> 00:36:54,210
+at risk محطوش الـ position تبعهم at risk Okay فـ we
+
+523
+00:36:54,210 --> 00:37:02,290
+have to be careful on doing this كمان
+
+524
+00:37:02,290 --> 00:37:06,450
+determining of portfolio policies حكيت عن
+
+525
+00:37:06,450 --> 00:37:09,210
+constraints و الـ constraints فاكرين لما حكيت عن الـ
+
+526
+00:37:09,210 --> 00:37:12,750
+objectives retain requirement risk الـ constraints
+
+527
+00:37:12,750 --> 00:37:18,840
+اللي هي الـ liquidity أنت متى بدك .. في ناس بييجي و
+
+528
+00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,860
+بيقولوا انه انا بدى .. واجد مابدي مصاريه بدي
+
+529
+00:37:21,860 --> 00:37:27,400
+اياهم، طبعا؟ هدول liquidity يعني لازم تكون very
+
+530
+00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:31,620
+high، اعملهم investment في high liquid assets، في
+
+531
+00:37:31,620 --> 00:37:35,040
+ناس بيقولك لأ يعني انا الفلوس هذه مش بحتاجها لمدة
+
+532
+00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:41,070
+سنة في ناس بيقولوا لأ انا هذه الفلوس لـ .. مثلا لـ ..
+
+533
+00:37:41,070 --> 00:37:44,030
+لـ الـ kids لما ي .. بعد 10 سنين 15 سنة لما يكبروا
+
+534
+00:37:44,030 --> 00:37:47,170
+في الجامعة مثلا واحد بيقول لأ هذه الفلوس لما انا
+
+535
+00:37:47,170 --> 00:37:52,190
+أسير retired لما انا أتقعد فـ الـ liquidity الـ
+
+536
+00:37:52,190 --> 00:37:54,670
+horizon كدهش الفترة الزمنية اللي احنا هنستثمر فيها
+
+537
+00:37:54,670 --> 00:37:57,570
+في ناس بيقولك انا بدي تلات شهور فيه بدي سنة so we
+
+538
+00:37:57,570 --> 00:38:01,290
+have to study regulations إيش هي الـ regulations
+
+539
+00:38:01,290 --> 00:38:05,320
+اللي تطبق؟ لازم احنا نقول للـ investors هذه هي الـ
+
+540
+00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:10,300
+regulations إذا مثلا إذا أنت قلت بدي سنة جابل سنة
+
+541
+00:38:10,300 --> 00:38:13,760
+إذا تسحب فلوسك احنا هنعملك discount .. احنا هنعملك
+
+542
+00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:18,760
+charge Okay إذا بدك تفل .. فلوسك لازم تبلغنا قبل
+
+543
+00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:23,560
+مثلا بـ 40 يوم يعني high regulations أنت شخصيا لازم
+
+544
+00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:27,900
+أنت تـ .. تطلب هذه الأفوا .. الأموال لا يحق لشخص
+
+545
+00:38:27,900 --> 00:38:30,960
+آخر أنه يـ .. يتبادل هذه المعلومات يعني high
+
+546
+00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:34,160
+regulations بتخص الـ .. الـ investments الـ taxes
+
+547
+00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,500
+كمان بيحطيله what is the level of tax he has to
+
+548
+00:38:37,500 --> 00:38:40,860
+pay كدهش الضريبة أو هو if he want to invest in a
+
+549
+00:38:40,860 --> 00:38:44,540
+particular tax shields is fine يعني هو بيـ .. بيـ ..
+
+550
+00:38:44,540 --> 00:38:48,480
+بده يستثمر في .. في شغلات انه مابتدفعش tax
+
+551
+00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,140
+فبنحكيله unique needs هذه الـ unique needs is
+
+552
+00:38:52,140 --> 00:38:57,480
+important احتياجات خاصة طبعا في الكتاب بيحكوا على
+
+553
+00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:02,060
+الاحتياجات الخاصة في المجتمع الغربي مثلا احتياجات
+
+554
+00:39:02,060 --> 00:39:07,000
+خاصة مثلا انه .. انه انا بدي أـ .. أـ .. I don't
+
+555
+00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:11,920
+want to invest in .. in wine companies in .. in
+
+556
+00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:15,700
+companies who producing wine يعني تـ .. تعطونيش
+
+557
+00:39:15,700 --> 00:39:21,060
+مثلا تستثمريش أموالي في بنوك تستثمريش أموالي في
+
+558
+00:39:21,060 --> 00:39:25,260
+شركات تنتج الخمور تنتج .. يعني هاي some
+
+559
+00:39:25,260 --> 00:39:28,980
+constraints unique needs بعض الاحتياجات الخاصة حسب
+
+560
+00:39:28,980 --> 00:39:33,640
+موجود في الكتاب مثلا أنه في معاطب بالكتاب أنه الـ
+
+561
+00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:36,140
+.. عادة في الفكر الأوروبي في الناحية الاقتصادية
+
+562
+00:39:36,140 --> 00:39:40,110
+الزوج والزوجة بيكونوا مشتركين في الحساب يعني هذا
+
+563
+00:39:40,110 --> 00:39:44,390
+أول شرط للزواج بيعتبروا أنه يكون في account مفتوح
+
+564
+00:39:44,390 --> 00:39:49,690
+للطرفين and they use this account اه يحق للطرف هذا
+
+565
+00:39:49,690 --> 00:39:52,750
+يستخدم هذا الـ .. فهذا is unique needs بعض احتياجات
+
+566
+00:39:52,750 --> 00:39:56,950
+خاصة ان الـ investment companies asking انه تكون الـ
+
+567
+00:39:56,950 --> 00:40:00,350
+.. الـ .. الـ .. الـ couples are allowed to .. to
+
+568
+00:40:00,350 --> 00:40:02,730
+manage the investment ان هم يديروا هذا الاستثمار
+
+569
+00:40:02,730 --> 00:40:06,050
+طبعا هذه حاجات بتخص الـ .. الـ .. بعض المجتمعات
+
+570
+00:40:06,050 --> 00:40:10,730
+الغربية مثلا في بعض الـ .. الناس بيقولك انا مابديش
+
+571
+00:40:10,730 --> 00:40:16,340
+استثمر في استثمارات مثلا تنتج سلاح أو استثمارات
+
+572
+00:40:16,340 --> 00:40:22,400
+مثلا تكون فيها شغلات محرمة بالشريعة الإسلامية أو
+
+573
+00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:27,340
+مثلا في ناس .. انا شوفت ناس شرطهم انه مايستثمر ..
+
+574
+00:40:27,340 --> 00:40:32,180
+استثمروش في الـ tobacco أو بيسموها green .. green
+
+575
+00:40:32,180 --> 00:40:36,400
+funds green funds إيش هي green funds؟ انه انا بدي
+
+576
+00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,820
+اموالي بس تستثمر في شركات ما .. لا تـ .. ما بتتدخل
+
+577
+00:40:39,820 --> 00:40:43,280
+.. يعني ما بتستثمرش في الـ tobacco industries في الـ
+
+578
+00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:48,890
+.. في الدخان حتى في ناس كمان العكس إذا في تبرعات
+
+579
+00:40:48,890 --> 00:40:52,670
+بيقبلوهاش يعني أنا شوفت جامعات في أوروبا إنه هذه
+
+580
+00:40:52,670 --> 00:40:57,630
+الجامعة بتقول شرطها إنه أنا لا أستقبل تبرعات من
+
+581
+00:40:57,630 --> 00:41:02,870
+شركات الـ tobacco حقهم
+
+582
+00:41:02,870 --> 00:41:07,790
+ليش؟ عشان مايشجعهم مش إنهم يـ .. فهذا جزء من الـ
+
+583
+00:41:07,790 --> 00:41:11,510
+policy تبعتهم فهذه بيسموها special needs or unique
+
+584
+00:41:11,510 --> 00:41:15,840
+needs الـ policies لكل واحدة asset allocation لـ
+
+585
+00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:19,560
+liquidity, diversification, tax, risk positioning
+
+586
+00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:25,280
+هدول أمثلة خلينا بس هاي تفاصيلهم الـ constraints
+
+587
+00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,840
+الليكودي تفاصيلها الـ investment process الـ
+
+588
+00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,900
+regulations تفاصيلها الـ tax consideration و الـ
+
+589
+00:41:31,900 --> 00:41:35,700
+unique needs الـ policy statement هاي مثال على الـ
+
+590
+00:41:35,700 --> 00:41:40,260
+policy statement Okay الـ governance شرحتها بيكون
+
+591
+00:41:40,260 --> 00:41:42,440
+عندي governance في الـ .. في الـ investments أنه كل
+
+592
+00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:48,500
+واحد بيكون اللى واجبات و بيكون في عندي internal
+
+593
+00:41:48,500 --> 00:41:52,020
+and external managers monitoring the .. the
+
+594
+00:41:52,020 --> 00:41:54,700
+results كمان شرحناه و risk management appropriate
+
+595
+00:41:54,700 --> 00:41:59,420
+reporting عملية كتابة تقارير لازم يكون كل فترة
+
+596
+00:41:59,420 --> 00:42:01,900
+زمانية نعرف إيه إيش الـ .. الـ .. الـ investment
+
+597
+00:42:01,900 --> 00:42:05,940
+accountability مين مسئول في حالة الاستثمارات،
+
+598
+00:42:05,940 --> 00:42:09,300
+خسرات أو .. a course of actions in case of market
+
+599
+00:42:09,300 --> 00:42:13,560
+طبعا هذا الـ asset allocation شرحناه بـ chapter one،
+
+600
+00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:20,460
+تمام؟ but .. but صور إحنا نجف عند هذا الحد، عند
+
+601
+00:42:20,460 --> 00:42:22,280
+managing portfolio of individual investments
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Qunp8-IbDZg_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Qunp8-IbDZg_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ee6fb5e021f15bc8a08b5ac3474a3d4d59d0db32
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Qunp8-IbDZg_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1640 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:25,090
+الله الرحمن الرحيم في
+
+2
+00:00:25,090 --> 00:00:28,990
+اللقاء الماضي كنا نحكي على ال versions of the
+
+3
+00:00:28,990 --> 00:00:31,550
+efficient market hypothesis اللي عندنا ال weak
+
+4
+00:00:31,550 --> 00:00:34,250
+market و عندنا ال semi strong market و strong
+
+5
+00:00:34,250 --> 00:00:38,550
+market the main differences between the versions
+
+6
+00:00:38,550 --> 00:00:41,550
+of the efficient market hypothesis to what extent
+
+7
+00:00:41,550 --> 00:00:45,230
+the information is incorporated in the prices يعني
+
+8
+00:00:45,230 --> 00:00:50,250
+الفرق ال .. ال .. ال .. الوحيداللي بيفرق بين أنواع
+
+9
+00:00:50,250 --> 00:00:55,070
+الكفاءات السوق هي لأي حد بتنعكس المعلومات في
+
+10
+00:00:55,070 --> 00:00:59,710
+الأسعار فإذا كانت المعلومات في حالة ال weak market
+
+11
+00:00:59,710 --> 00:01:02,950
+السوق الضعيف بتعكس فقط ال historical prices
+
+12
+00:01:02,950 --> 00:01:06,920
+الأسعار التاريخية بيكون هذا weakإذا كان ال semi
+
+13
+00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:11,060
+-strong market بيعكس الأسعار التاريخية بالإضافة
+
+14
+00:01:11,060 --> 00:01:14,320
+للأسعار الأساسية أو المعلومات الأساسية بيكون semi
+
+15
+00:01:14,320 --> 00:01:17,160
+-strong market ال strong market بيعكس كل أنواع
+
+16
+00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:21,100
+الأسعار كل أنواع المعلومات و في اللقاء الفات يعني
+
+17
+00:01:21,100 --> 00:01:24,060
+بس أذكركم أن ال .. ال .. ال .. ال previous meeting
+
+18
+00:01:24,060 --> 00:01:29,420
+we say this is a weak market and this is the semi
+
+19
+00:01:29,420 --> 00:01:33,460
+-strong market and the last one is the strong
+
+20
+00:01:33,460 --> 00:01:41,520
+marketالسوق الضعيف يشبه أسعار التاريخ أو المعلومات
+
+21
+00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:46,780
+التاريخية، والسوق الضعيف يشبه أسعار التاريخ،
+
+22
+00:01:46,780 --> 00:01:51,020
+المعلومات التاريخية ومعلومات الأساسية، والسوق
+
+23
+00:01:51,020 --> 00:01:56,660
+الضعيف يشبه أسعار التاريخ، المعلومات التاريخية
+
+24
+00:01:56,660 --> 00:02:01,560
+ومعلومات الأساسيةOkay So this is the thing
+
+25
+00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,800
+Regarding your exam one of the questions in your
+
+26
+00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:09,520
+exam is like correct the following statement يعني
+
+27
+00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:15,080
+في حسب الامتحان صحح المعلومات التالية خلينا
+
+28
+00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:19,540
+نعطيكوا مثال The weak market reflects
+
+29
+00:02:31,130 --> 00:02:36,470
+المعلومات القانونية فقط تقوم بإصلاح هذا الموضوع
+
+30
+00:02:36,470 --> 00:02:39,650
+لديك
+
+31
+00:02:39,650 --> 00:02:43,950
+2 اختيارات يمكنك أن ترى أن هذا مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم
+
+32
+00:02:43,950 --> 00:02:44,470
+مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم
+
+33
+00:02:44,470 --> 00:02:45,390
+مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم
+
+34
+00:02:45,390 --> 00:02:49,290
+مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم
+
+35
+00:02:49,290 --> 00:02:57,930
+مصممم مصم
+
+36
+00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:07,760
+نشوف السؤال الآخر كيف هتنعامل معاه The
+
+37
+00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:16,380
+strong market incorporates
+
+38
+00:03:16,380 --> 00:03:21,360
+the
+
+39
+00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:27,200
+historical information
+
+40
+00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:38,580
+and fundamental information and
+
+41
+00:03:38,580 --> 00:03:45,100
+fundamental information what
+
+42
+00:03:45,100 --> 00:03:48,160
+do you think فقط فقط ولا مش فقط okay only for
+
+43
+00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:55,220
+instance corrective corrective where is the answer
+
+44
+00:03:55,220 --> 00:03:56,020
+the correct answer
+
+45
+00:03:59,130 --> 00:04:06,790
+بدل strong, semi-strong أو strong markets you just
+
+46
+00:04:06,790 --> 00:04:12,990
+add here and drive it okay I think this is very
+
+47
+00:04:12,990 --> 00:04:16,490
+simple questions هدول أسئلة سهلة and you can
+
+48
+00:04:16,490 --> 00:04:19,930
+easily handle these questions okay just be careful
+
+49
+00:04:19,930 --> 00:04:25,210
+on these questions انتبهوا لهذه الأسئلة you need
+
+50
+00:04:25,210 --> 00:04:33,090
+to correct the answerOkay then based on this
+
+51
+00:04:33,090 --> 00:04:37,390
+understanding we have two point of views some
+
+52
+00:04:37,390 --> 00:04:40,870
+people think that the financial market is not
+
+53
+00:04:40,870 --> 00:04:47,170
+efficient and is not follow the random walk others
+
+54
+00:04:47,170 --> 00:04:50,950
+think that the financial market is efficient and
+
+55
+00:04:50,950 --> 00:04:54,070
+follow a random walk يعني بعض الناس بعتقدوا أن
+
+56
+00:04:54,070 --> 00:04:58,800
+السوق المالي مش efficientوما بيعكس السوق المالي ما
+
+57
+00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:04,160
+بيعكس السلوك العشوائي للأسعار وبعض الناس بيحكوا
+
+58
+00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:07,760
+بيحكوا لأ ان السوق المالي is efficient كفه وبيعكس
+
+59
+00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:13,420
+السلوك .. وبيعكس السلوك العشوائي للأسعار طبعا بال
+
+60
+00:05:13,420 --> 00:05:16,180
+meeting اللى فتنات حكينا بال technical analysis
+
+61
+00:05:16,180 --> 00:05:20,380
+الناس اللى بيدعموا فكرة ال financial market is not
+
+62
+00:05:20,380 --> 00:05:26,220
+efficientthey think on the technical analysis
+
+63
+00:05:26,220 --> 00:05:28,660
+بعتقدوا بال technical analysis so they are using
+
+64
+00:05:28,660 --> 00:05:31,060
+technical analysis why they are using technical
+
+65
+00:05:31,060 --> 00:05:35,380
+analysis because they think that the historical
+
+66
+00:05:35,380 --> 00:05:38,320
+prices is reflected itself بعتقدوا أن الأسعار
+
+67
+00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:42,520
+التاريخية بتعكس نفسها بنفسها so they are using the
+
+68
+00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:46,040
+charts لذلك وما بيستخدموا إيش ال chart إيش معناه
+
+69
+00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:51,800
+ال chart اللي هو المقاطعة البيانية فاهم بقىThe
+
+70
+00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,360
+success depends on a sluggish response of stock
+
+71
+00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,400
+prices to fundamental supply and demand factors،
+
+72
+00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:03,440
+بعتقده أن ال technical analysis بترتب عليه ردود
+
+73
+00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:07,660
+فعل بطيئة
+
+74
+00:06:07,660 --> 00:06:12,410
+للمعلومات الأساسيةweak firm efficiency relative
+
+75
+00:06:12,410 --> 00:06:15,870
+strength طبعا زي ما حكينا مرة فاتت بس تلخيص احنا
+
+76
+00:06:15,870 --> 00:06:20,570
+بنحكي انه في ال technical analysis بيحللوا ال
+
+77
+00:06:20,570 --> 00:06:24,650
+prices و بيحللوا ال trading volume و اظن ان انا
+
+78
+00:06:24,650 --> 00:06:29,560
+اعطيكم مثال على الشموع اليابانيةفاكرين؟ و اقتنعكوا
+
+79
+00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,200
+كمان على ال resistance and support اللي هو نقاط
+
+80
+00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,740
+الدعم و نقاط المقاومة و فيه هنا كتب موجودة بتوضح
+
+81
+00:06:35,740 --> 00:06:39,280
+العلاقات هذه بشكل كبير فممكن انتوا ترجعوا فيها بس
+
+82
+00:06:39,280 --> 00:06:45,500
+لمعلوماتكم الخاصة هاي عندنا مثال لما تكون
+
+83
+00:06:45,500 --> 00:06:49,640
+highlight channel when the price is close to the
+
+84
+00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:53,180
+to the top to the resistance the resistance
+
+85
+00:06:53,180 --> 00:06:57,510
+pushing the price downSo the .. the investors
+
+86
+00:06:57,510 --> 00:07:00,510
+selling the price .. the stocks and when the
+
+87
+00:07:00,510 --> 00:07:04,470
+prices is going down and try to .. to touch or to
+
+88
+00:07:04,470 --> 00:07:07,510
+hit the support line, this is the support line,
+
+89
+00:07:08,230 --> 00:07:11,410
+the buyers try to trade and buy their stocks in
+
+90
+00:07:11,410 --> 00:07:14,210
+order to .. to make it up حتى يدفعوا الأسعار
+
+91
+00:07:14,210 --> 00:07:18,630
+للأسفل، بتلاحظوا لما يوصل عند القاعال support
+
+92
+00:07:18,630 --> 00:07:22,470
+فبتحاول الأسعار تطلع لما تصدم في القمة بتحاول
+
+93
+00:07:22,470 --> 00:07:26,490
+الأسعار to what extent this is right إلى أي درجة
+
+94
+00:07:26,490 --> 00:07:29,550
+هذا صحيح some people as I said believe on this
+
+95
+00:07:29,550 --> 00:07:32,350
+others they don't believe on this بعض الناس
+
+96
+00:07:32,350 --> 00:07:36,670
+بيعتقدوا بالكلام هذا و ناس بيعتقدوه مش بالكلام and
+
+97
+00:07:36,670 --> 00:07:42,370
+this is similar to this this is the topthis is the
+
+98
+00:07:42,370 --> 00:07:45,710
+resistance and this is support the question is why
+
+99
+00:07:45,710 --> 00:07:53,450
+this channel is moved up ليش اخترقت نقطة الدعم
+
+100
+00:07:53,450 --> 00:08:00,670
+نقطة المقاومة اخترقها سبب انه بيعتبروا there is
+
+101
+00:08:00,670 --> 00:08:05,930
+event في حدث صار في السوق and this line وهذه نقطة
+
+102
+00:08:05,930 --> 00:08:09,980
+المقاومة ماقدرتش to push the price downماقدرتش
+
+103
+00:08:09,980 --> 00:08:16,040
+تدفع الأسعار الأسفل فكان the strength and the fast
+
+104
+00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,580
+or the speed of price is stronger than the
+
+105
+00:08:19,580 --> 00:08:23,620
+resistance يعني كانت قوة الأسعار و سرعة الأسعار
+
+106
+00:08:23,620 --> 00:08:29,090
+أقوى من المقاومةوبالتالي اخترقت الحاجز المقاومة
+
+107
+00:08:29,090 --> 00:08:33,630
+وبدأت تطلع إلى مستويات أعلى and having a new
+
+108
+00:08:33,630 --> 00:08:39,450
+resistance and having a new position وتتجه لمجال
+
+109
+00:08:39,450 --> 00:08:44,330
+جديد هذا بالنسبة لل technical analysis let's talk
+
+110
+00:08:44,330 --> 00:08:47,290
+about the fundamental analysis fundamental
+
+111
+00:08:47,290 --> 00:08:50,870
+analysis people think that the financial market is
+
+112
+00:08:50,870 --> 00:08:54,010
+efficient they believe on the fundamental analysis
+
+113
+00:08:54,870 --> 00:08:59,950
+and they claim that the prices reflect economic ..
+
+114
+00:08:59,950 --> 00:09:03,630
+economic financial accounting and industrial data
+
+115
+00:09:03,630 --> 00:09:08,890
+بيعتقدوا بتوع ال fundamental analysis أن الأسواق
+
+116
+00:09:08,890 --> 00:09:12,330
+المالية أو الأسعار بتعكس معلومات حقيقية بتعكس
+
+117
+00:09:12,330 --> 00:09:15,190
+معلومات اقتصادية، معلومات مالية، معلومات محاسبية،
+
+118
+00:09:15,190 --> 00:09:19,460
+معلومات مستخبرية عن المنشأةand this is opposite to
+
+119
+00:09:19,460 --> 00:09:21,500
+the technical analysis وهذا بعكس ال technical
+
+120
+00:09:21,500 --> 00:09:24,000
+analysis ال technical analysis depends on the
+
+121
+00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,320
+chart and saying that the prices is repeated
+
+122
+00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,940
+itself technical analysis يعني التعوين التحديد
+
+123
+00:09:30,940 --> 00:09:33,620
+الفنلي بيعتقدوا أن الأسعار بتكرر نفسها لكن بال
+
+124
+00:09:33,620 --> 00:09:40,680
+fundamental analysis they think that the prices
+
+125
+00:09:40,680 --> 00:09:45,540
+reflected the fundamental value of the stock تعكس
+
+126
+00:09:45,540 --> 00:09:53,470
+القيمة الحقية لل stockخلّينا نشوف why
+
+127
+00:09:53,470 --> 00:09:55,690
+it is important fundamental analysis as I
+
+128
+00:09:55,690 --> 00:09:57,910
+explained fundamental analysis using economic
+
+129
+00:09:57,910 --> 00:10:00,670
+accounting information to predict stock prices
+
+130
+00:10:00,670 --> 00:10:06,730
+يعني بيحاولوا يستخدموا ال economic وال accounting
+
+131
+00:10:06,730 --> 00:10:11,000
+information طبعا هي ال economicمش ال economic اللي
+
+132
+00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,440
+احنا بنفهمها بطريقة بسيطة ال economics including
+
+133
+00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,180
+the economics, including the industrial, the
+
+134
+00:10:18,180 --> 00:10:20,700
+competition, the interest rates, unemployment
+
+135
+00:10:20,700 --> 00:10:23,900
+everything related to the economy كل شيء بتعلق
+
+136
+00:10:23,900 --> 00:10:29,580
+بالاقتصاد منها المنافسة منها التطور للصناعة منها
+
+137
+00:10:29,580 --> 00:10:33,560
+ال export و ال import everything related to الفعل
+
+138
+00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,960
+منها ال risk and return of the firm and the
+
+139
+00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:39,740
+accounting information accounting information
+
+140
+00:10:39,740 --> 00:10:42,880
+which also includes the financial information بت
+
+141
+00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,200
+.. بتضم كمان معها ال financial information
+
+142
+00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:49,780
+المعلومات المالية if you look at here fundamental
+
+143
+00:10:49,780 --> 00:10:52,100
+analysis هدول الناس اللي بيقتنعوا بال fundamental
+
+144
+00:10:52,100 --> 00:10:55,800
+analysis و and they call them fundamentals يعني
+
+145
+00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,300
+الناس ال fundamentals are fundamentalist الناس
+
+146
+00:10:59,300 --> 00:11:02,440
+اللي بيقاموا بال .. بالتحليل الأساسيأو fundamental
+
+147
+00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,740
+analysis they try to calculate the fundamental
+
+148
+00:11:05,740 --> 00:11:11,120
+price بحاولوا أنه بناء على المعلومات الاقتصادية
+
+149
+00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,740
+والمعلومات المالية والمحاسبية ووضع السوق بحاولوا
+
+150
+00:11:14,740 --> 00:11:19,040
+يتنبأوا بالسعر الحقيقي ال fundamental فلنفترض احنا
+
+151
+00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:23,050
+for instance the fundamental price is V0لو احنا
+
+152
+00:11:23,050 --> 00:11:26,850
+حسبنا ال fundamental price is V0، V is stand for
+
+153
+00:11:26,850 --> 00:11:30,170
+the value, the value of stock، بتوع ال financial
+
+154
+00:11:30,170 --> 00:11:34,570
+management في الإدارة المالية، اذا درستوها، في
+
+155
+00:11:34,570 --> 00:11:38,270
+الإدارة المالية احنا حسبنا how to calculate the V0
+
+156
+00:11:39,540 --> 00:11:42,240
+خاصة تعوين ال financial management in English
+
+157
+00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,280
+والتعوين ال financial management in Arabic يعني
+
+158
+00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:52,920
+أكيد أخدته كيف نحتسب القيمة الحقيقية لسعر السهم
+
+159
+00:11:53,680 --> 00:11:58,340
+Okay فهي ال V note فإذا حسبنا ال V note خلينا ناخد
+
+160
+00:11:58,340 --> 00:12:01,440
+مثلا نفترض ال V note is fifty percent fifty dollar
+
+161
+00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:06,020
+سعر سهم حسبناه بناء على ال based on the economic
+
+162
+00:12:06,020 --> 00:12:10,520
+accounting information data the V note is equal
+
+163
+00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,860
+fifty dollar V note هذي estimated
+
+164
+00:12:16,470 --> 00:12:20,890
+it means هذا المتوقع we think that the fair price
+
+165
+00:12:20,890 --> 00:12:23,630
+and the fundamental price of this stock is fifty
+
+166
+00:12:23,630 --> 00:12:28,790
+dollars يعني احنا بنعتقد سعر السهم اللازم يكون
+
+167
+00:12:28,790 --> 00:12:32,570
+خمسين دولار سعره الحقيقي بناء على ايش؟ بناء على
+
+168
+00:12:32,570 --> 00:12:35,470
+المعلومات ال economic الاقتصاد ومعلومات ال
+
+169
+00:12:35,470 --> 00:12:40,530
+accounting و ال financial و everything now the B
+
+170
+00:12:40,530 --> 00:12:45,040
+note which is the market priceهذا السعر الحقيقي
+
+171
+00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:51,640
+الموجود في السوق market price is for instance 40$
+
+172
+00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:55,640
+روحنا
+
+173
+00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:59,660
+احنا حسبنا السعر كان 50$ حسبنا حسبنا لما روحنا
+
+174
+00:12:59,660 --> 00:13:05,240
+السوق نشوف قيمة السهم في السوق لنقر 40$ what do
+
+175
+00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:09,640
+you think ايش رأيكوا buy او sell نشريها للشركة و
+
+176
+00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:22,630
+لنبيها نشريها whyis under priced نشريها صح buy
+
+177
+00:13:22,630 --> 00:13:27,050
+احنا بنعمل buy buy this stock because the
+
+178
+00:13:27,050 --> 00:13:30,450
+fundamental price is fifty dollarthe fundamental
+
+179
+00:13:30,450 --> 00:13:34,390
+it means the real price is fifty dollars however
+
+180
+00:13:34,390 --> 00:13:37,050
+the market price is forty dollars which is below
+
+181
+00:13:37,050 --> 00:13:42,070
+the expected price so it means the market
+
+182
+00:13:42,070 --> 00:13:45,310
+mechanisms or the investors try to buy this price
+
+183
+00:13:45,310 --> 00:13:48,630
+to go to this price يعني بده يحاول يشتري هذا السعر
+
+184
+00:13:48,630 --> 00:13:53,830
+حتى يساوي هذا السعر so this is under priced okay
+
+185
+00:13:53,830 --> 00:13:59,010
+if the opposite إذا كان العكسwe calculate this by
+
+186
+00:13:59,010 --> 00:14:03,030
+fifty dollar but the .. so you understand this
+
+187
+00:14:03,030 --> 00:14:11,510
+واضح okay if .. اسمها ايه؟ قبل ما نبدأ احكي عادي
+
+188
+00:14:11,510 --> 00:14:19,970
+هتسأل لأنه هلأ اذا ب .. طالما ما في فرض مش سامي
+
+189
+00:14:19,970 --> 00:14:23,550
+الف سامي
+
+190
+00:14:23,550 --> 00:14:30,170
+اللي هم مابيشيوش على حساب خمسينع حساب أبريل، لأ
+
+191
+00:14:30,170 --> 00:14:35,050
+خليني يا بابا أقولك انتظر بسمعي شويه، هلأ السعر في
+
+192
+00:14:35,050 --> 00:14:40,350
+السوق كام؟ اربعين دولار، السعر المتوقع خمسين
+
+193
+00:14:40,350 --> 00:14:47,040
+دولار، فهم السعر الحقيقي للسهم هو خمسينبس السعر في
+
+194
+00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:50,380
+السوق الآن بينبقى 40 دولار إذا سعره أقل من الحقيقه
+
+195
+00:14:50,380 --> 00:14:53,420
+صح فإنت بوجهك نظرة إيش راح تسوي راح تضلك تشتريه
+
+196
+00:14:53,420 --> 00:14:56,900
+لإنه بيصير supply كل ما بيصير demand كل ما بيصير
+
+197
+00:14:56,900 --> 00:15:01,200
+demand إيش بيصير في السعر بيرتفع طيب بيضلوا يرتفع
+
+198
+00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,660
+السعر لما يساوي ال 50 دولار بيصير equilibrium
+
+199
+00:15:03,660 --> 00:15:08,240
+price بيصير سعر التوازن لما يصير سعر التوازن بيبطل
+
+200
+00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:13,500
+فيه trade طبعا وضحك هاي طب خلينا ناخد ال the
+
+201
+00:15:13,500 --> 00:15:26,970
+opposite العكسif .. if B node is 55$ يعني حسبنا
+
+202
+00:15:26,970 --> 00:15:30,590
+السعر بناءً على ال information economic و ال
+
+203
+00:15:30,590 --> 00:15:34,350
+accounting information and we find it 50$ but when
+
+204
+00:15:34,350 --> 00:15:42,020
+we go to the market it was 55$يعني under priced or
+
+205
+00:15:42,020 --> 00:15:46,380
+over priced over priced يعني أعلى من السعر الحقيقي
+
+206
+00:15:46,380 --> 00:15:51,840
+over priced so what people doing here what people
+
+207
+00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:56,220
+doing here they are selling هيبيعوا عشان السعر
+
+208
+00:15:56,220 --> 00:16:04,020
+ينزل لعند ال fifty dollar they sell this okay so
+
+209
+00:16:04,020 --> 00:16:10,000
+the fundamental analysisالموضوع الأول أو الموضوع
+
+210
+00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:15,980
+الرئيسي للتحقيق الأساسي هو تخطيط السعر الأساسي
+
+211
+00:16:15,980 --> 00:16:22,700
+ومقارنة السعر الأساسي مع السعر السوقي إذا كان
+
+212
+00:16:22,700 --> 00:16:30,880
+السعر الأساسي أكتر أو أكتر من السعر المتوقع أو
+
+213
+00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:36,740
+السعر السوقي فهو تحت السعر، لذلك نشتريإذا كانت
+
+214
+00:16:36,740 --> 00:16:40,900
+تقريبًا من قيمة السوق، فنقوم بالبيع لأنها تقريبًا
+
+215
+00:16:40,900 --> 00:16:47,040
+من قيمة السوق، حسنًا؟ فهذا هو الأمر فقط
+
+216
+00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:54,700
+لكي أفهم ما يعني تحديث الأساس، نعم،
+
+217
+00:16:54,700 --> 00:17:00,750
+يبدو هكذاthe main objective the other objectives
+
+218
+00:17:00,750 --> 00:17:03,470
+of the fundamental analysis is to try to find
+
+219
+00:17:03,470 --> 00:17:06,230
+things that are better than everyone else
+
+220
+00:17:06,230 --> 00:17:10,390
+estimates نحاول
+
+221
+00:17:10,390 --> 00:17:14,910
+نوجد طريقة حسابية
+
+222
+00:17:14,910 --> 00:17:19,010
+طريقة معادلات الناس التانية مابقدروش يستخدموها to
+
+223
+00:17:19,010 --> 00:17:23,270
+estimate the price راحظوا احنا هنا there are
+
+224
+00:17:23,270 --> 00:17:27,130
+different methods to estimate the V notesالناس
+
+225
+00:17:27,130 --> 00:17:30,090
+بتسابقوا يشوفوا إيش الطريقة الصح لنا نعمل فيها ال
+
+226
+00:17:30,090 --> 00:17:33,370
+V0 فهذه ال techniques مرات احنا بستخدم معادلات
+
+227
+00:17:33,370 --> 00:17:35,870
+رياضية is very complicated mathematical solution
+
+228
+00:17:35,870 --> 00:17:41,710
+to find out what is the V0 so the most important
+
+229
+00:17:41,710 --> 00:17:44,510
+thing is to find how we can estimate this using
+
+230
+00:17:44,510 --> 00:17:47,590
+advanced techniques advanced tools in order to
+
+231
+00:17:47,590 --> 00:17:52,070
+estimate the V0 and once we use this we have
+
+232
+00:17:52,070 --> 00:17:53,110
+better understanding
+
+233
+00:18:00,620 --> 00:18:06,660
+it's chapter لو جينا احنا حكينا قروبه قيمولها ال
+
+234
+00:18:06,660 --> 00:18:13,040
+.. قيمولها ال stock أساسي سهم لو جينا احنا بدنا
+
+235
+00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:20,620
+نقيم سهم سهم مثلا IBM what are the tools that you
+
+236
+00:18:20,620 --> 00:18:25,150
+can use ايش ال tools اللي انتوا ممكن تستخدموهاممكن
+
+237
+00:18:25,150 --> 00:18:29,790
+نستخدم مثلا ال average ممكن نستخدم ال median ممكن
+
+238
+00:18:29,790 --> 00:18:34,210
+نستخدم sigma ممكن نستخدم الفار and these tools are
+
+239
+00:18:34,210 --> 00:18:38,430
+available for everyone هذه ال tools متوفرة للكل so
+
+240
+00:18:38,430 --> 00:18:41,790
+it is not considered as advanced tool لا تعتبر
+
+241
+00:18:41,790 --> 00:18:46,010
+يعني هذه في ناس بيستخدموا تقنيات كتير متقدمة
+
+242
+00:18:46,010 --> 00:18:49,810
+رياضيا عشان يعملوا estimation لل V notes بس هذه
+
+243
+00:18:49,810 --> 00:18:53,150
+التقنيات الكل بعرفها أي واحد أي طالب في الجامعة أي
+
+244
+00:18:53,150 --> 00:18:58,320
+واحد خلص ممكن يعملهالكن some professional people
+
+245
+00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,920
+الناس ال professional they are using advanced tool
+
+246
+00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:08,820
+because they want to know which is stock perform
+
+247
+00:19:08,820 --> 00:19:11,900
+better than others يعني بيشوفوا السهم اللي بيعمل
+
+248
+00:19:11,900 --> 00:19:15,960
+أحسن من الآخرين لأنه لو احنا كلنا لو خمسين
+
+249
+00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:20,540
+investors في ال store بيستخدموا the same tool they
+
+250
+00:19:20,540 --> 00:19:24,360
+will end up with the same resultsمظبوط ولا لأ؟ لو
+
+251
+00:19:24,360 --> 00:19:27,060
+خمسين شخص، خمسين مستثمر موجودين في السوق يستخدموا
+
+252
+00:19:27,060 --> 00:19:32,520
+نفس ال tools، هيوصلوا لنفس النتيجة، إذا كان واحد
+
+253
+00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:37,880
+them is more professional than others، إذا كان
+
+254
+00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,680
+واحد أكتر professional، أكتر احتراف من الآخرين، so
+
+255
+00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:45,330
+he or she may use different toolsيعني ممكن يستخدم
+
+256
+00:19:45,330 --> 00:19:47,850
+different tools يعني خليني أعطيكوا مثلا ممكن
+
+257
+00:19:47,850 --> 00:19:52,070
+يستخدم شغلة اسمها VAR VAR مش ال variance مش هذه
+
+258
+00:19:52,070 --> 00:19:59,490
+VAR is stand for values at risk VAR
+
+259
+00:19:59,490 --> 00:20:03,150
+is stand for هذه ال VAR شايفينها؟ هيك تكتبوها
+
+260
+00:20:03,150 --> 00:20:09,790
+values at risk I'm not asking you to know what it
+
+261
+00:20:09,790 --> 00:20:14,310
+means values at risk but it is a techniqueHelping
+
+262
+00:20:14,310 --> 00:20:19,810
+the professionals to know exactly what is the
+
+263
+00:20:19,810 --> 00:20:24,610
+actual performance of the suppliesand these
+
+264
+00:20:24,610 --> 00:20:28,930
+techniques حتى لو أنا قلتلكوا this is var and ask
+
+265
+00:20:28,930 --> 00:20:31,630
+you to do it you cannot do it because it needs a
+
+266
+00:20:31,630 --> 00:20:35,490
+high knowledge تحتاج ل high knowledge معرفة عالية
+
+267
+00:20:35,490 --> 00:20:40,050
+و تستخدم تقنيات عالية كتير بال .. بال .. بال high
+
+268
+00:20:40,050 --> 00:20:45,430
+knowledge لو واحد ثاني عنده knowledge أكتر ممكن
+
+269
+00:20:45,430 --> 00:20:50,330
+يستخدم intrinsic values طريقة
+
+270
+00:20:50,330 --> 00:20:54,150
+اسمها find the intrinsic valuesطريقة أخرى عشان
+
+271
+00:20:54,150 --> 00:20:59,730
+نعرف احنا بالظبط السعر يعني اعطيكوا مثال لو احنا
+
+272
+00:20:59,730 --> 00:21:08,210
+حكنالكم بدنا نشوف القمر في الليل from your naked
+
+273
+00:21:08,210 --> 00:21:13,010
+eye بعينكم المجردة fine بتشوف و قولكم اقصدوا في
+
+274
+00:21:13,010 --> 00:21:16,550
+القرار و اوكي القمر شكله هيك هيك قولنا اوكي خدوا
+
+275
+00:21:16,550 --> 00:21:20,630
+هذا التليسكوب هذا التليسكوب بيقرب لأشياء عشرة أو
+
+276
+00:21:20,630 --> 00:21:26,530
+ستةعشرة أقل ستة فضلوا هتشوفوا أشياء أكتر if I give
+
+277
+00:21:26,530 --> 00:21:31,090
+you another one which is measured for ten power
+
+278
+00:21:31,090 --> 00:21:36,150
+twelve يعني عشر أقل ستمعاش هتشوفوا أكتر to see
+
+279
+00:21:36,150 --> 00:21:38,710
+more details which is not available to people with
+
+280
+00:21:38,710 --> 00:21:43,060
+naked eyesيعني شغلات بس لو واحد بيشوف بالعلمة
+
+281
+00:21:43,060 --> 00:21:46,700
+مجردة just .. just the moon some people say inside
+
+282
+00:21:46,700 --> 00:21:49,960
+the moon بيشوفوا داخل القمر the same .. the same
+
+283
+00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:55,760
+thing if you are applying new techniques and tools
+
+284
+00:21:55,760 --> 00:22:01,960
+فهذه الفكرة انه في ..
+
+285
+00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:07,000
+if I .. زي ما احنا شوفت ال butter
+
+286
+00:22:10,850 --> 00:22:15,310
+Some people they try to find poorly run things
+
+287
+00:22:15,310 --> 00:22:18,610
+that are not as bad as the market thinks بعض
+
+288
+00:22:18,610 --> 00:22:27,430
+الناس، الناس العاديين، بعتقدوا أن هذا السهم وضعه
+
+289
+00:22:27,430 --> 00:22:31,410
+سيء، but if you have extra analysis or in-depth
+
+290
+00:22:31,410 --> 00:22:34,210
+analysis, you see this is not as bad as the others
+
+291
+00:22:34,210 --> 00:22:40,490
+thinkيعني مش كتير سيء زي ما الناس بيعتقدوا فالناس
+
+292
+00:22:40,490 --> 00:22:42,930
+اللي بيشتغلوا بال fundamental analysis they have
+
+293
+00:22:42,930 --> 00:22:46,810
+their own tools which is unique and is not
+
+294
+00:22:46,810 --> 00:22:52,310
+available to others هي مميزة ومش هتكون متوفرة
+
+295
+00:22:52,310 --> 00:22:56,410
+للآخرين اللي يقدروا ان هم ايش يستخدموا هذه ال
+
+296
+00:22:56,410 --> 00:22:59,910
+tools فهي هتساعدهم اول شي تشوفوا مين السهم المليح
+
+297
+00:22:59,910 --> 00:23:04,470
+وكمان مين السهم اللي السوق بعتقد انه سيء بس هو مش
+
+298
+00:23:04,470 --> 00:23:06,350
+سيء okay
+
+299
+00:23:10,790 --> 00:23:14,390
+فهذه مهمة ال .. ال .. ال fundamental analysis يعني
+
+300
+00:23:14,390 --> 00:23:18,510
+احنا بتشوف مثلا سهم يعني اعطيكوا مثلا ناس بتعتقد
+
+301
+00:23:18,510 --> 00:23:24,450
+ان ياهو is one of the best stock or google ناس
+
+302
+00:23:24,450 --> 00:23:27,410
+بتفهر ياهو و جوجل but if you have in-depth
+
+303
+00:23:27,410 --> 00:23:31,670
+analysis ياهو or جوجل is the best اه not the best
+
+304
+00:23:31,670 --> 00:23:36,600
+if you have in-depth analysisif you have just
+
+305
+00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,820
+shallow analysis shallow يعني معناها سطحي إذا
+
+306
+00:23:40,820 --> 00:23:43,940
+عندنا shallow analysis تحليل سطحي which is
+
+307
+00:23:43,940 --> 00:23:47,660
+available for other people so you cannot come up
+
+308
+00:23:47,660 --> 00:23:50,220
+with new things but if you have in-depth analysis
+
+309
+00:23:50,220 --> 00:23:55,020
+with advanced tools so you can see what is inside
+
+310
+00:23:55,020 --> 00:23:58,540
+ممكن تعرف what is inside okay
+
+311
+00:24:03,810 --> 00:24:06,570
+فال fundamental analysis is much related to the
+
+312
+00:24:06,570 --> 00:24:08,670
+semi-strong hypothesis and I explained what it
+
+313
+00:24:08,670 --> 00:24:11,590
+means semi-strong analysis so it is fine you can
+
+314
+00:24:11,590 --> 00:24:16,070
+use it in the in the in the fundamental in the
+
+315
+00:24:16,070 --> 00:24:20,510
+semi-strong market based on this understanding
+
+316
+00:24:20,510 --> 00:24:26,250
+بناء على الكلام هذا بناء على ال technical analysis
+
+317
+00:24:26,250 --> 00:24:28,570
+و ال fundamental analysis we have two different
+
+318
+00:24:28,570 --> 00:24:33,320
+types of portfolio managersبناء على فهمنا التحليل
+
+319
+00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,500
+الفني technical analysis والتحليل الأساسي ال
+
+320
+00:24:36,500 --> 00:24:41,560
+fundamental analysis بيكون عندى نوعين من ال
+
+321
+00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:45,000
+investors we have active managers و في عندنا
+
+322
+00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,740
+passive managers عندنا ال active و عندنا ال
+
+323
+00:24:47,740 --> 00:24:51,300
+managers طبعا في عندى انا هاي الملفين كده لما انا
+
+324
+00:24:51,300 --> 00:24:56,740
+انسى او مش ملفين اكتر من ملفين هذه الملفات زى ما
+
+325
+00:24:56,740 --> 00:25:01,530
+انتوا شايفينهذه بالعربي يعني ممكن in your free
+
+326
+00:25:01,530 --> 00:25:05,530
+time and when you finish this course مش ال exam
+
+327
+00:25:05,530 --> 00:25:09,090
+this course you can get benefit from reading these
+
+328
+00:25:09,090 --> 00:25:12,230
+files يعني هي عندكم files مثلا بالتحليل الأساسي
+
+329
+00:25:12,230 --> 00:25:17,210
+شايفين اللي هو ال fundamental analysis والتحليل
+
+330
+00:25:17,210 --> 00:25:19,330
+الفني اللي هو technical analysis يعني لو إحنا
+
+331
+00:25:19,330 --> 00:25:26,820
+إجينا التحليل الأساسي هتلاقي كله إيشعبارة عن تحليل
+
+332
+00:25:26,820 --> 00:25:33,800
+اقتصادي و تحليل مالي يعني خليني انا أورجي فيا فهذا
+
+333
+00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:39,900
+يعني بال .. بال free time تبعكم اتحاولوا يعني بعد
+
+334
+00:25:39,900 --> 00:25:43,200
+اللي ما تنهوا الانتحارات مش الانتحارات و الفصل و
+
+335
+00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:44,280
+كذا اه
+
+336
+00:25:47,610 --> 00:25:51,630
+يعني شوفوا التحليل الأساسي كله يعني بيستخدموا
+
+337
+00:25:51,630 --> 00:25:55,090
+معادلات يعني مثلا هان مكرر الأرباح اللي هو ال P-E
+
+338
+00:25:55,090 --> 00:25:58,790
+ratio ال P-E ratio أنا أعطيتكوا ال P-E ratio قبل
+
+339
+00:25:58,790 --> 00:26:05,010
+تلت .. يعني chapter two و chapter three فاكرين؟ لأ
+
+340
+00:26:05,010 --> 00:26:07,510
+تفرجوا ال P-E ratio جاي في سؤال انت هان فيه على
+
+341
+00:26:07,510 --> 00:26:13,290
+فكرةال P-E ratio ال P-E ratio أخذناها لما كنا
+
+342
+00:26:13,290 --> 00:26:18,370
+نحاول نقرأ ال stocks و ال bonds أكيد مش تعرف هذه
+
+343
+00:26:18,370 --> 00:26:23,510
+correct the answers multiple choice و الصح و غلط و
+
+344
+00:26:23,510 --> 00:26:26,590
+أشياء مثلها التحليل المالي مثلا شوفوا التحليل
+
+345
+00:26:26,590 --> 00:26:30,310
+المالي مهم بال .. بال fundamental analysis يعني
+
+346
+00:26:30,310 --> 00:26:33,850
+هذا ان شاء الله في ال free time you can read this
+
+347
+00:26:33,850 --> 00:26:37,410
+خليني
+
+348
+00:26:37,410 --> 00:26:41,310
+بس أخلص الصفحة هذهactive or passive management
+
+349
+00:26:41,310 --> 00:26:47,390
+احنا حكينا المرة الفاتة في chapter two the active
+
+350
+00:26:47,390 --> 00:26:54,650
+management think that the market is not efficient
+
+351
+00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,240
+and there is a lot of mispricing so they depend on
+
+352
+00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,960
+the mispricing to correct the inefficiency يعني هم
+
+353
+00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,360
+دورهم بيخلوا ال market efficient هو أصلا ال market
+
+354
+00:27:05,360 --> 00:27:10,160
+مش efficient لكن the .. the contribution of the
+
+355
+00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,740
+active managements or the active managers make the
+
+356
+00:27:12,740 --> 00:27:16,340
+market efficient يعني تدخلهم هو بيخلي لأنه مش
+
+357
+00:27:16,340 --> 00:27:21,420
+ذاكير لما احنا حكينا the prices deviate from their
+
+358
+00:27:21,420 --> 00:27:26,410
+fundamentalبتقول احنا أخدنا ال risk and return
+
+359
+00:27:26,410 --> 00:27:30,970
+وحكينا the prices should be on the security market
+
+360
+00:27:30,970 --> 00:27:35,350
+line sometimes there is mispricing so the role of
+
+361
+00:27:35,350 --> 00:27:38,330
+active management is to correct this and making
+
+362
+00:27:38,330 --> 00:27:40,870
+the price or making the stocks to be on the line
+
+363
+00:27:40,870 --> 00:27:45,850
+okay هذا بيسموهم ال active managementthis is an
+
+364
+00:27:45,850 --> 00:27:49,750
+expensive strategy هذي expensive strategy بتكلفهم
+
+365
+00:27:49,750 --> 00:27:52,830
+كتير why? because they .. they want to collect a
+
+366
+00:27:52,830 --> 00:27:57,330
+fundamental information to know which is the
+
+367
+00:27:57,330 --> 00:28:00,910
+inefficient prices or which stock is inefficient
+
+368
+00:28:00,910 --> 00:28:06,470
+or which stock is mispriced و أي سهم هو عليه
+
+369
+00:28:06,470 --> 00:28:08,670
+mispriced يعني مش مسعر بطريقة صحية
+
+370
+00:28:11,650 --> 00:28:15,130
+because they spend a lot of money on collecting
+
+371
+00:28:15,130 --> 00:28:18,170
+fundamental and private information so it is not
+
+372
+00:28:18,170 --> 00:28:21,830
+suitable for the small investors يعني مش كويسة على
+
+373
+00:28:21,830 --> 00:28:24,150
+small investors يعني الواحد مستخدم اللي عنده one
+
+374
+00:28:24,150 --> 00:28:27,100
+hundred dollarعنده ميت دولار أو ألف دولار يروح
+
+375
+00:28:27,100 --> 00:28:30,040
+يجمع معلومات و .. and it cost for him or for her
+
+376
+00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:34,200
+so it is not suitable for them مش كتير مناسبة لهم
+
+377
+00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,620
+هذه مناسبة لمين is suitable only for large
+
+378
+00:28:37,620 --> 00:28:40,800
+portfolios يعني لو واحد عنده محفظة خمس مليون و لا
+
+379
+00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:45,800
+ميت مليون دولار and invest one percent يعني لو صرف
+
+380
+00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,800
+ألف دولار و لا ميت ألف دولار it .. it deserve
+
+381
+00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,870
+تستحق لإيجمع معلومات و يعمل تحليلThe passive
+
+382
+00:28:53,870 --> 00:28:58,130
+managers think the market is efficient يعني
+
+383
+00:28:58,130 --> 00:29:00,790
+بيعتقلوا أن ال market is efficient all of the
+
+384
+00:29:00,790 --> 00:29:05,610
+stock is located on the security market line كل ال
+
+385
+00:29:05,610 --> 00:29:08,390
+stocks بتقع على خط السوق and the market is
+
+386
+00:29:08,390 --> 00:29:13,510
+efficient and because of this no attempt to
+
+387
+00:29:13,510 --> 00:29:17,550
+outsmart the market يعني ما تكونوش شاطرين كتيركأنه
+
+388
+00:29:17,550 --> 00:29:20,590
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال people believe on the passive
+
+389
+00:29:20,590 --> 00:29:22,710
+management بيعتقدوا أنه ال market is efficient
+
+390
+00:29:22,710 --> 00:29:25,950
+they just only to invest on the stocks that
+
+391
+00:29:25,950 --> 00:29:28,770
+located in the .. in the market on the security
+
+392
+00:29:28,770 --> 00:29:31,890
+market line فحاولوا يوجدوا تنويعة موجودة على خط
+
+393
+00:29:31,890 --> 00:29:37,550
+السوق don't be outsmart ما تكونش تفهم كتير because
+
+394
+00:29:37,550 --> 00:29:42,690
+the market outsmart others يعني السوق أفهم و أشطر
+
+395
+00:29:42,690 --> 00:29:48,040
+من الناس كلها okaySo they accept the efficient
+
+396
+00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:53,020
+market hypothesis AMH, they invest in the index
+
+397
+00:29:53,020 --> 00:29:57,240
+funds and I explain this because the index funds
+
+398
+00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,620
+اللي هو المؤشرات السوق because it includes only
+
+399
+00:30:00,620 --> 00:30:05,160
+the best stocks يعني المؤشرات اللي أسهم زي مؤشر
+
+400
+00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,620
+Dow Jones وNasdaq وNikkei ومؤشر New York Stock
+
+401
+00:30:09,620 --> 00:30:15,080
+Exchange ومؤشر FTSE 100 وهذا شلحته أظن بشتر two أو
+
+402
+00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:19,850
+threeand one of the characteristics is very low
+
+403
+00:30:19,850 --> 00:30:23,070
+cost you don't need to collect information بس
+
+404
+00:30:23,070 --> 00:30:26,970
+أنتوا خدوا الأسهم لإنه دايما في كل يوم افتحوا
+
+405
+00:30:26,970 --> 00:30:30,370
+الناشرة الاقتصادية او اشي فبحكوكوا the best one
+
+406
+00:30:30,370 --> 00:30:34,990
+hundred companies أفضل مئة شركة خلاص so you don't
+
+407
+00:30:34,990 --> 00:30:38,950
+need to look for who is the best because the best
+
+408
+00:30:38,950 --> 00:30:42,610
+is already known so just channel your fun to the
+
+409
+00:30:42,610 --> 00:30:47,680
+best okaySo this is the active and passive
+
+410
+00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:48,040
+management
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SKWjWg0aL4w_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SKWjWg0aL4w_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1195671aa17208040fe776b9651a83f49c9ac3a3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SKWjWg0aL4w_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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I'm using of not of .. of .. of the United States it means outside the United States So why investors prefer to use or to trade in dollar of the United States So they have two options to trade or to invest the dollar inside the United States or outside the United States", "tokens": [6455, 983, 11519, 4382, 281, 4923, 294, 7241, 295, 264, 2824, 3040, 5296, 15042, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 295, 4386, 295, 4386, 286, 478, 1228, 295, 406, 295, 4386, 295, 4386, 295, 264, 2824, 3040, 309, 1355, 2380, 264, 2824, 3040, 407, 983, 11519, 4382, 281, 764, 420, 281, 4923, 294, 7241, 295, 264, 2824, 3040, 407, 436, 362, 732, 3956, 281, 4923, 420, 281, 1963, 264, 7241, 1854, 264, 2824, 3040, 420, 2380, 264, 2824, 3040], "avg_logprob": -0.16987179678220016, "compression_ratio": 2.1676646706586826, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 109.37, "end": 109.71, "word": "So", "probability": 0.71875}, {"start": 109.71, "end": 110.17, "word": " why", "probability": 0.80322265625}, {"start": 110.17, "end": 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بس معايا ال mobile تبعي فإيش ال option مش أرهنه أبيعه أبيعه بعدين أشتريه okay هلأ ال mobile", "tokens": [1863, 3615, 9566, 1829, 50113, 6027, 4724, 3794, 1829, 9566, 4032, 39182, 9957, 8717, 9566, 3555, 4587, 11296, 577, 264, 11519, 764, 309, 4724, 3794, 6225, 8592, 7649, 6055, 5172, 16095, 9673, 12984, 6027, 41850, 39896, 20449, 995, 25528, 3714, 37746, 995, 26895, 1392, 4724, 16254, 6156, 1211, 41779, 4724, 3794, 5296, 1829, 20498, 36764, 24401, 286, 500, 380, 362, 604, 1460, 19446, 3615, 1863, 16254, 8592, 36632, 6156, 1211, 41779, 4724, 3794, 20449, 995, 25528, 2423, 6013, 6055, 3555, 3615, 1829, 6156, 28814, 1829, 8592, 2423, 3614, 37893, 5551, 2288, 3224, 1863, 3224, 5551, 21292, 3615, 3224, 5551, 21292, 3615, 3224, 39182, 9957, 5551, 8592, 2655, 16572, 3224, 1392, 8032, 1211, 10721, 2423, 6013], "avg_logprob": -0.14170258787685427, "compression_ratio": 1.652542372881356, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 581.76, "end": 582.1, "word": "نعطي", 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"probability": 0.861328125}, {"start": 1245.14, "end": 1245.4, "word": " option", "probability": 0.96826171875}, {"start": 1245.4, "end": 1245.58, "word": " 2", "probability": 0.94970703125}, {"start": 1245.58, "end": 1245.7, "word": " و", "probability": 0.9814453125}, {"start": 1245.7, "end": 1246.02, "word": " نشوف", "probability": 0.8922526041666666}, {"start": 1246.02, "end": 1249.36, "word": " option", "probability": 0.93994140625}, {"start": 1249.36, "end": 1249.66, "word": " 2", "probability": 0.92919921875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 45, "seek": 127998, "start": 1255.18, "end": 1279.98, "text": "فى option two هيجى طبعا هو اش هيعمل بده يشتري طبعا شراق شاكل today بده يشتري شاكل today مظبوط and sell it tomorrow بده يشتري الشاكل اليوم", "tokens": [5172, 7578, 3614, 732, 39896, 7435, 7578, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 31439, 1975, 8592, 39896, 25957, 1211, 47525, 3224, 7251, 8592, 2655, 16572, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 13412, 23557, 4587, 13412, 995, 28820, 965, 47525, 3224, 7251, 8592, 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"probability": 0.752685546875}, {"start": 1261.72, "end": 1262.22, "word": " يشتري", "probability": 0.98291015625}, {"start": 1262.22, "end": 1263.4, "word": " طبعا", "probability": 0.966552734375}, {"start": 1263.4, "end": 1264.26, "word": " شراق", "probability": 0.8232421875}, {"start": 1264.26, "end": 1265.7, "word": " شاكل", "probability": 0.83837890625}, {"start": 1265.7, "end": 1267.14, "word": " today", "probability": 0.7392578125}, {"start": 1267.14, "end": 1268.94, "word": " بده", "probability": 0.6800537109375}, {"start": 1268.94, "end": 1269.2, "word": " يشتري", "probability": 0.9833984375}, {"start": 1269.2, "end": 1269.5, "word": " شاكل", "probability": 0.9788411458333334}, {"start": 1269.5, "end": 1269.88, "word": " today", "probability": 0.783203125}, {"start": 1269.88, "end": 1271.7, "word": " مظبوط", "probability": 0.88046875}, {"start": 1271.7, "end": 1272.88, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9013671875}, {"start": 1272.88, "end": 1273.16, "word": " sell", 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transferring لل risk اللي أخدناها ب chapter one، فاكرين لما حكينا transferring لل risk؟ طيب، هلأ ال bank فلسطين إيش هيسوي؟ يلا مين يحكي لل bank فلسطين إيش هيسوي؟", "tokens": [2304, 3615, 44945, 4117, 6055, 7649, 1829, 12399, 37495, 22653, 3714, 43020, 7251, 25957, 1211, 11296, 20449, 12699, 8915, 12399, 20449, 2423, 34194, 7869, 8915, 12399, 3714, 43020, 7251, 25957, 1211, 11296, 20449, 50113, 15040, 2423, 6849, 3765, 12399, 44945, 4117, 33688, 3794, 41361, 4032, 8032, 4117, 15730, 12399, 28242, 44945, 4117, 39896, 32887, 5016, 7251, 3615, 4117, 3794, 11296, 20449, 44945, 4117, 19753, 34740, 6225, 8592, 7649, 7251, 25957, 1211, 14407, 27599, 24976, 3148, 34051, 31437, 24976, 3148, 13672, 1829, 5551, 9778, 3215, 8315, 11296, 4724, 7187, 472, 12399, 6156, 995, 37983, 9957, 5296, 15042, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 31437, 24976, 3148, 22807, 23032, 1829, 3555, 12399, 8032, 1211, 10721, 2423, 3765, 6156, 1211, 3794, 9566, 9957, 11933, 1829, 8592, 39896, 3794, 45865, 22807, 7251, 15040, 3714, 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4032, 2304, 43020, 29739, 1863, 2407, 4117, 6055, 3215, 25957, 45030, 11242, 11296, 4032, 36081, 2304, 1975, 33753, 3794, 16758, 6156, 16373, 41891, 39894, 2655, 24401, 3215, 11296, 8608, 1211, 9566, 3660, 28239, 9778, 41891, 27188, 1211, 3794, 9566, 9957, 10632, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 8608, 1211, 9566, 3660, 28239, 9778, 41891, 27188, 1211, 3794, 9566, 9957, 10632, 5296, 33456, 3224, 19446, 41185, 8592, 43242, 8315, 6225, 42213, 3660, 13412, 28820, 6225, 42213, 3660, 10874, 22653, 3224, 6156, 1211, 3794, 9566, 9957, 1829, 6156, 26890, 2407, 5016, 14407, 4724, 1829, 5016, 35457, 14407, 4724, 1829, 5016, 35457, 14407, 13672, 1829, 31439, 3714, 43020, 2423, 6019, 2374, 6846, 4724, 1829, 5016, 35457, 14407, 13672, 1829, 31439, 2423, 6019, 2374, 6846, 20666, 3215, 12610, 9640, 6156, 3224, 15730, 4724, 1829, 38251, 2407, 3224, 2423, 6019, 2374, 6846], "avg_logprob": -0.1004231763460363, "compression_ratio": 2.51310861423221, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2198.86, "end": 2199.2, "word": "نفس", "probability": 0.90771484375}, {"start": 2199.2, "end": 2199.44, "word": " الشيء", "probability": 0.8575846354166666}, {"start": 2199.44, "end": 2199.56, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.696533203125}, {"start": 2199.56, "end": 2199.78, "word": " عندنا", "probability": 0.913818359375}, {"start": 2199.78, "end": 2199.9, "word": " في", "probability": 0.9423828125}, {"start": 2199.9, "end": 2200.24, "word": " مناطق", "probability": 0.9615885416666666}, {"start": 2200.24, "end": 2200.56, "word": " السلطة", "probability": 0.9205322265625}, {"start": 2200.56, "end": 2201.46, "word": " الفلسطينية", "probability": 0.9606119791666666}, {"start": 2201.46, "end": 2201.7, "word": " كل", "probability": 0.62060546875}, {"start": 2201.7, "end": 2201.98, "word": " بنك", "probability": 0.7139892578125}, {"start": 2201.98, "end": 2202.1, "word": " من", "probability": 0.9765625}, {"start": 2202.1, "end": 2202.66, "word": " البنوك", "probability": 0.80035400390625}, {"start": 2202.66, "end": 2203.84, "word": " بيحتفظ", "probability": 0.78525390625}, {"start": 2203.84, "end": 2203.92, "word": " في", "probability": 0.85009765625}, {"start": 2203.92, "end": 2204.22, "word": " حساب", "probability": 0.990234375}, {"start": 2204.22, "end": 2204.44, "word": " لدى", "probability": 0.9236653645833334}, {"start": 2204.44, "end": 2204.72, "word": " سلطة", "probability": 0.986572265625}, {"start": 2204.72, "end": 2205.02, "word": " النخدة", "probability": 0.7626953125}, {"start": 2205.02, "end": 2205.62, "word": " الفلسطينية", "probability": 0.9981282552083334}, {"start": 2205.62, "end": 2206.44, "word": " وممكن", "probability": 0.768798828125}, {"start": 2206.44, "end": 2206.74, "word": " البنوك", "probability": 0.961669921875}, {"start": 2206.74, "end": 2207.1, "word": " تدعم", "probability": 0.9363606770833334}, {"start": 2207.1, "end": 2207.78, "word": " بعضها", "probability": 0.9622395833333334}, {"start": 2207.78, "end": 2208.52, "word": " ويتم", "probability": 0.91259765625}, {"start": 2208.52, "end": 2209.0, "word": " احتساب", "probability": 0.9735107421875}, {"start": 2209.0, "end": 2209.7, "word": " فائدة", "probability": 0.9876302083333334}, {"start": 2209.7, "end": 2210.68, "word": " بتتحددها", "probability": 0.91357421875}, {"start": 2210.68, "end": 2211.0, "word": " سلطة", "probability": 0.993896484375}, {"start": 2211.0, "end": 2211.3, "word": " النخدة", "probability": 0.97998046875}, {"start": 2211.3, "end": 2211.9, "word": " الفلسطينية", "probability": 0.9966634114583334}, {"start": 2211.9, "end": 2212.52, "word": " طبعا", "probability": 0.9608154296875}, {"start": 2212.52, "end": 2212.82, "word": " سلطة", "probability": 0.98583984375}, {"start": 2212.82, "end": 2213.14, "word": " النخدة", "probability": 0.98291015625}, {"start": 2213.14, "end": 2213.72, "word": " الفلسطينية", "probability": 0.99560546875}, {"start": 2213.72, "end": 2214.04, "word": " لأنه", "probability": 0.7371419270833334}, {"start": 2214.04, "end": 2214.36, "word": " مافيش", "probability": 0.93994140625}, {"start": 2214.36, "end": 2214.68, "word": " عندنا", "probability": 0.877685546875}, {"start": 2214.68, "end": 2214.96, "word": " عملة", "probability": 0.82861328125}, {"start": 2214.96, "end": 2215.36, "word": " شكل", "probability": 0.7373046875}, {"start": 2215.36, "end": 2216.02, "word": " عملة", "probability": 0.8806966145833334}, {"start": 2216.02, "end": 2216.42, "word": " جنيه", "probability": 0.9498697916666666}, {"start": 2216.42, "end": 2216.9, "word": " فلسطيني", "probability": 0.9798177083333334}, {"start": 2216.9, "end": 2217.32, "word": " فبروحوا", "probability": 0.91533203125}, {"start": 2217.32, "end": 2217.78, "word": " بيحسبوا", "probability": 0.95966796875}, {"start": 2217.78, "end": 2218.62, "word": " بيحسبوا", "probability": 0.93037109375}, {"start": 2218.62, "end": 2218.74, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.918212890625}, {"start": 2218.74, "end": 2218.98, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.966796875}, {"start": 2218.98, "end": 2219.3, "word": " ممكن", "probability": 0.921630859375}, {"start": 2219.3, "end": 2219.42, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.75537109375}, {"start": 2219.42, "end": 2219.62, "word": " federal", "probability": 0.7578125}, {"start": 2219.62, "end": 2219.96, "word": " fund", "probability": 0.6318359375}, {"start": 2219.96, "end": 2220.36, "word": " rates", "probability": 0.775390625}, {"start": 2220.36, "end": 2221.62, "word": " بيحسبوا", "probability": 0.94189453125}, {"start": 2221.62, "end": 2221.74, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.98779296875}, {"start": 2221.74, "end": 2221.96, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.9921875}, {"start": 2221.96, "end": 2222.22, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.91162109375}, {"start": 2222.22, "end": 2222.44, "word": " federal", "probability": 0.8134765625}, {"start": 2222.44, "end": 2222.72, "word": " fund", "probability": 0.7802734375}, {"start": 2222.72, "end": 2223.24, "word": " rates", "probability": 0.86865234375}, {"start": 2223.24, "end": 2224.42, "word": " بالدولار", "probability": 0.987060546875}, {"start": 2224.42, "end": 2226.48, "word": " فهذا", "probability": 0.8116861979166666}, {"start": 2226.48, "end": 2226.96, "word": " بيسموه", "probability": 0.9576171875}, {"start": 2226.96, "end": 2227.08, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.87890625}, {"start": 2227.08, "end": 2227.32, "word": " federal", "probability": 0.83837890625}, {"start": 2227.32, "end": 2227.62, "word": " fund", "probability": 0.8828125}, {"start": 2227.62, "end": 2227.98, "word": " rates", "probability": 0.8525390625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 82, "seek": 224775, "start": 2229.35, "end": 2247.75, "text": "لأن البنوك تتدايع من بعضها خلصنا؟ okay خلاص نجف عند هذا الحد عشان المرة الجاية بنحكي عن ال capital markets المرة الجاية بتحضروا ال capital markets okay يعطوكوا بالعافية", "tokens": [1211, 33456, 29739, 1863, 2407, 4117, 6055, 2655, 28259, 40228, 9154, 45030, 11242, 11296, 16490, 1211, 9381, 8315, 22807, 1392, 16490, 1211, 33546, 8717, 7435, 5172, 43242, 23758, 21542, 3215, 6225, 8592, 7649, 9673, 25720, 25724, 995, 10632, 44945, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 4238, 8383, 9673, 25720, 25724, 995, 10632, 39894, 5016, 11242, 2288, 14407, 2423, 4238, 8383, 1392, 37495, 9566, 2407, 4117, 14407, 20666, 3615, 31845, 10632], "avg_logprob": -0.26450894262109487, "compression_ratio": 1.619047619047619, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2229.35, "end": 2229.71, "word": "لأن", "probability": 0.4185791015625}, {"start": 2229.71, "end": 2230.41, "word": " البنوك", "probability": 0.8538818359375}, {"start": 2230.41, "end": 2230.73, "word": " تتدايع", "probability": 0.61602783203125}, {"start": 2230.73, "end": 2230.93, "word": " من", "probability": 0.7626953125}, {"start": 2230.93, "end": 2232.25, "word": " بعضها", "probability": 0.9474283854166666}, {"start": 2232.25, "end": 2236.17, "word": " خلصنا؟", "probability": 0.735302734375}, {"start": 2236.17, "end": 2236.29, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.63134765625}, {"start": 2236.29, "end": 2237.29, "word": " خلاص", "probability": 0.8590494791666666}, {"start": 2237.29, "end": 2238.85, "word": " نجف", "probability": 0.453369140625}, {"start": 2238.85, "end": 2239.01, "word": " عند", "probability": 0.98779296875}, {"start": 2239.01, "end": 2239.17, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.87841796875}, {"start": 2239.17, "end": 2239.51, "word": " الحد", "probability": 0.99072265625}, {"start": 2239.51, "end": 2239.93, "word": " عشان", "probability": 0.9527994791666666}, {"start": 2239.93, "end": 2240.55, "word": " المرة", "probability": 0.960205078125}, {"start": 2240.55, "end": 2240.77, "word": " الجاية", "probability": 0.7190755208333334}, {"start": 2240.77, "end": 2241.23, "word": " بنحكي", "probability": 0.795318603515625}, {"start": 2241.23, "end": 2241.45, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 2241.45, "end": 2241.77, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 2241.77, "end": 2242.87, "word": " capital", "probability": 0.53857421875}, {"start": 2242.87, "end": 2243.47, "word": " markets", "probability": 0.759765625}, {"start": 2243.47, "end": 2244.47, "word": " المرة", "probability": 0.965576171875}, {"start": 2244.47, "end": 2244.71, "word": " الجاية", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 2244.71, "end": 2245.09, "word": " بتحضروا", "probability": 0.8455078125}, {"start": 2245.09, "end": 2245.15, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.92724609375}, {"start": 2245.15, "end": 2245.35, "word": " capital", "probability": 0.96533203125}, {"start": 2245.35, "end": 2245.79, "word": " markets", "probability": 0.8212890625}, {"start": 2245.79, "end": 2246.09, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.853515625}, {"start": 2246.09, "end": 2247.33, "word": " يعطوكوا", "probability": 0.775}, {"start": 2247.33, "end": 2247.75, "word": " بالعافية", "probability": 0.85992431640625}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2248.38825, "duration_after_vad": 2129.292499999994}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..71756d56ca68fbfbef546894d7c1e6fecb6744d8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1728 @@
+1
+00:00:21,330 --> 00:00:24,710
+ال .. في المعنى الفاتحة حكينا عن ال arithmetic و
+
+2
+00:00:24,710 --> 00:00:30,790
+ال geometric methods and we agree on that both
+
+3
+00:00:30,790 --> 00:00:39,330
+methods concludes approximately similar answers
+
+4
+00:00:39,330 --> 00:00:42,390
+with
+
+5
+00:00:42,390 --> 00:00:47,430
+regard to risk يعني حسب ال riskطيب اليوم هنحكي على
+
+6
+00:00:47,430 --> 00:00:52,450
+ال reward to volatility نحكي على sharp ratio خلينا
+
+7
+00:00:52,450 --> 00:01:01,810
+نرجع ل this chart again نرجع لهذا ال chart okay و
+
+8
+00:01:01,810 --> 00:01:08,450
+just if we have a and b if we have stock a and
+
+9
+00:01:08,450 --> 00:01:12,410
+stock b and this is sigma and this is the expected
+
+10
+00:01:12,410 --> 00:01:22,850
+returnسؤالي هو ماهو أفضل؟ Stock A أو Stock B؟ ماهو
+
+11
+00:01:22,850 --> 00:01:28,490
+أفضل؟ Stock A أو Stock B؟ Stock B Stock B، لماذا
+
+12
+00:01:28,490 --> 00:01:33,910
+Stock B؟ أكثر
+
+13
+00:01:33,910 --> 00:01:38,730
+من 10 أكثر من 10 ولكن في الوقت نفسه يتخلص من أقل
+
+14
+00:01:38,730 --> 00:01:39,390
+فرصة
+
+15
+00:01:43,190 --> 00:01:46,010
+we cannot say this نقدرش نحكم الكلام على ده
+
+16
+00:01:46,010 --> 00:01:53,130
+because some investors acquire lower return with
+
+17
+00:01:53,130 --> 00:01:57,790
+lower risk other investors acquire higher return
+
+18
+00:01:57,790 --> 00:02:04,570
+with higher risk okay so some investors prefer A
+
+19
+00:02:04,570 --> 00:02:09,070
+others investors prefer B يعني بعض المستثمين بفضله
+
+20
+00:02:09,070 --> 00:02:14,720
+A بعض المستثمين الأخرين بفضله بفضله BOkay لكن
+
+21
+00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:18,020
+نقدرش
+
+22
+00:02:18,020 --> 00:02:24,780
+نحكم if you only focus on return and if we only
+
+23
+00:02:24,780 --> 00:02:28,400
+focus on risk يعني إذا إحنا بس بنركز بال return
+
+24
+00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,820
+على وحده أو بنركز على ال risk على وحده it is not
+
+25
+00:02:31,820 --> 00:02:38,420
+useful ف sharp .. sharp develop a ratio which
+
+26
+00:02:38,420 --> 00:02:43,740
+called sharp ratio لأن هي طورته باسمهand this
+
+27
+00:02:43,740 --> 00:02:49,440
+sharp ratio link the return with the risk طربط ال
+
+28
+00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,960
+risk ال return مع ال risk okay يعني لو أجينا احنا
+
+29
+00:02:52,960 --> 00:03:02,280
+ل A و B حكينا ال E return تبع A is six percent and
+
+30
+00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:11,670
+this is nine percentوالسيجما اللي هو حرارة a هو 0
+
+31
+00:03:11,670 --> 00:03:23,810
+.12 وسيجما بيه 0.75 حسنا؟ لذلك الآن a يحافظ على
+
+32
+00:03:23,810 --> 00:03:31,970
+حرارة أسفة وحرارة أسفة كذلك بي حافظ على حرارة أعلى
+
+33
+00:03:31,970 --> 00:03:38,260
+وحرارة أعلىat the moment we cannot conclude which
+
+34
+00:03:38,260 --> 00:03:42,000
+investment we should prefer يعني لللحظة هذه ما
+
+35
+00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:49,700
+بنقدرش to conclude أي واحدة أفضل A ولا B so we
+
+36
+00:03:49,700 --> 00:03:55,360
+need a ratio that combining the return and risk
+
+37
+00:03:55,360 --> 00:04:01,450
+together نحتاجلـ ratio لمعادلة بتعمل mixing or
+
+38
+00:04:01,450 --> 00:04:05,330
+combining ل ال return و ال risk مع بعض ان احنا
+
+39
+00:04:05,330 --> 00:04:09,810
+نحتاج لمعادلة تخلطهم مع بعض to mix this and end
+
+40
+00:04:09,810 --> 00:04:13,610
+with one figure and one figure just compare this
+
+41
+00:04:13,610 --> 00:04:20,670
+with this and this is what's been done by sharp و
+
+42
+00:04:20,670 --> 00:04:23,810
+هذا اللي سووا sharp sharp just mixing
+
+43
+00:04:26,830 --> 00:04:31,050
+العادة العادية مع العادة العادية الصحيحة الواضحة
+
+44
+00:04:31,050 --> 00:04:40,590
+الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة
+
+45
+00:04:40,590 --> 00:04:40,810
+الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة
+
+46
+00:04:40,810 --> 00:04:45,530
+الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة
+
+47
+00:04:45,530 --> 00:04:49,730
+الواضحة الواضحةand this is sigma one and this is
+
+48
+00:04:49,730 --> 00:04:57,170
+sigma two sigma one is a measure of risk because
+
+49
+00:04:57,170 --> 00:05:03,170
+and this
+
+50
+00:05:03,170 --> 00:05:07,990
+is a and this is b because b holding higher risk
+
+51
+00:05:07,990 --> 00:05:12,590
+so it should be compensated by the market by this
+
+52
+00:05:12,590 --> 00:05:19,700
+لأن ب تحمل مخاطر أعلىإذا لازم نعوضها بعائد أكتر
+
+53
+00:05:19,700 --> 00:05:25,020
+فهنا بنسمي risk premium هذا المنطقة اسمها risk
+
+54
+00:05:25,020 --> 00:05:30,220
+premium why risk premium؟ why risk premium؟ ليش
+
+55
+00:05:30,220 --> 00:05:35,940
+risk premium؟ because B holding higher risk
+
+56
+00:05:35,940 --> 00:05:39,180
+because it's holding higher risk it's compensated
+
+57
+00:05:39,180 --> 00:05:43,620
+by higher return okay so this is the risk premium
+
+58
+00:05:43,620 --> 00:05:46,180
+and
+
+59
+00:05:49,430 --> 00:05:53,810
+هذا هو الترجمه و بعدها مقياسه بالترجمه العادى
+
+60
+00:05:53,810 --> 00:05:54,530
+للترجمه العادى للترجمه العادى للترجمه العادى
+
+61
+00:05:54,530 --> 00:05:58,650
+لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه
+
+62
+00:05:58,650 --> 00:06:00,470
+العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى
+
+63
+00:06:00,470 --> 00:06:00,890
+لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه
+
+64
+00:06:00,890 --> 00:06:01,910
+العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى
+
+65
+00:06:01,910 --> 00:06:05,190
+لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه
+
+66
+00:06:05,190 --> 00:06:07,930
+العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى
+
+67
+00:06:07,930 --> 00:06:14,630
+لترجمه العادى
+
+68
+00:06:14,630 --> 00:06:19,690
+ليعني what is the probability to get this excess
+
+69
+00:06:19,690 --> 00:06:23,420
+returned؟إيش احتمال؟ Okay, we agree this is a
+
+70
+00:06:23,420 --> 00:06:28,400
+compensation from .. from the market because B is
+
+71
+00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:33,500
+holding a greater risk than A, this is fine, but
+
+72
+00:06:33,500 --> 00:06:38,280
+the second question, we are uncertain that the
+
+73
+00:06:38,280 --> 00:06:43,320
+market can give this return لكن المشكلة التانية إن
+
+74
+00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:49,090
+أحنا مش متأكدين السوق هيعطينا ال return ولا لأrisk
+
+75
+00:06:49,090 --> 00:06:53,230
+يعني ايش عرفنا احنا ال risk اول زمان قبل تلت
+
+76
+00:06:53,230 --> 00:06:56,070
+محاضرات اربعة محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات اربعة
+
+77
+00:06:56,070 --> 00:06:56,090
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+78
+00:06:56,090 --> 00:06:56,450
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+79
+00:06:56,450 --> 00:06:57,630
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+80
+00:06:57,630 --> 00:07:02,990
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+81
+00:07:02,990 --> 00:07:10,410
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرclosely
+
+82
+00:07:10,410 --> 00:07:15,050
+speaking .. closely speaking يعني كتير .. يعني ن
+
+83
+00:07:15,050 --> 00:07:19,150
+.. نأكد closely speaking that the Sharpe ratio
+
+84
+00:07:19,150 --> 00:07:23,590
+consider the .. the excess return which is risk
+
+85
+00:07:23,590 --> 00:07:28,710
+premium divided by the risk يعني بالأخير هي هذا ال
+
+86
+00:07:28,710 --> 00:07:40,190
+return divided by riskعادة نحصل على 9% كعادة ولكن
+
+87
+00:07:40,190 --> 00:07:47,450
+المشكلة هي إلى أي درجة نحصل على 9% لأي درجة أننا
+
+88
+00:07:47,450 --> 00:07:56,310
+متأكدين نحصل على 9% عادة عادة
+
+89
+00:07:56,310 --> 00:08:03,510
+عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة
+
+90
+00:08:03,510 --> 00:08:06,380
+عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادةOkay let's now
+
+91
+00:08:06,380 --> 00:08:15,640
+to give example of a and b خلينا when
+
+92
+00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:21,560
+we calculate a when we calculate a the sharp ratio
+
+93
+00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:27,980
+of a is point thirty eight مين كان أول a و لا بي
+
+94
+00:08:27,980 --> 00:08:39,370
+بي فوق كانت أه okay so thirty fiveand B is 41 so
+
+95
+00:08:39,370 --> 00:08:43,310
+we calculate sharp ratio for A and B حسبنا ال
+
+96
+00:08:43,310 --> 00:08:49,930
+sharp ratio ل A and B and we find that A is 35 and
+
+97
+00:08:49,930 --> 00:08:55,990
+B is 41 what it means لأ أنا أعطيتك مثال طبعا كيف
+
+98
+00:08:55,990 --> 00:09:03,280
+طلعناها طلعناها بال risk premiumdivided by
+
+99
+00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:10,220
+standard deviation of x's return okay تمام risk
+
+100
+00:09:10,220 --> 00:09:16,060
+premium هعطيكم مثلا ماتخافوش this
+
+101
+00:09:16,060 --> 00:09:20,680
+is what I'm asking you what it means based on your
+
+102
+00:09:20,680 --> 00:09:25,000
+understanding of this what it means which is more
+
+103
+00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:30,800
+preferable investors prefer A or Bمتذكرين لما
+
+104
+00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:34,040
+حكينا ال return و ال risk we get confused some
+
+105
+00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:38,620
+people prefer a others prefer b but now just one
+
+106
+00:09:38,620 --> 00:09:43,440
+single answer إجابة واحدة هتكون which you prefer a
+
+107
+00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:53,520
+or b okay by you are right b but why why b why it
+
+108
+00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,940
+is أعلى what is b
+
+109
+00:10:04,190 --> 00:10:08,330
+Okay because the return will increase in the
+
+110
+00:10:08,330 --> 00:10:15,590
+future okay the performance of stockswhen you
+
+111
+00:10:15,590 --> 00:10:19,450
+explain this focus on two things focus in return
+
+112
+00:10:19,450 --> 00:10:22,870
+focus in the excess return and risk together لأن
+
+113
+00:10:22,870 --> 00:10:26,870
+هدوء احنا قلنا انه كان المشاكل بال return لوحده و
+
+114
+00:10:26,870 --> 00:10:32,110
+ال sigma لوحدها انه you judge on return and you
+
+115
+00:10:32,110 --> 00:10:36,750
+judge on risk but now you judge on both مع بعض
+
+116
+00:10:36,750 --> 00:10:48,600
+التنامدك تحكي so what it means35 و
+
+117
+00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,640
+41 ماهي
+
+118
+00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:58,420
+الفرق بين 35 و 41 ماهي الفرق اعلى اعلى اعلى اعلى
+
+119
+00:10:58,420 --> 00:11:06,220
+اعلى اعلى اعلى اعلى اعلى
+
+120
+00:11:14,410 --> 00:11:20,850
+بتجمع بناتهم بعدين
+
+121
+00:11:20,850 --> 00:11:25,450
+بنات
+
+122
+00:11:25,450 --> 00:11:30,730
+ولا في أسهل من ال calculations ولا في أسهل من ال
+
+123
+00:11:30,730 --> 00:11:36,010
+calculations بتجيبكوا معادلة يحسبوها كل بيحسبها و
+
+124
+00:11:36,010 --> 00:11:39,760
+بتاخدوا مية في المية في الحساباتلكن ال problem is
+
+125
+00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:44,840
+how to explain the result المشكلة كيف ن .. ال
+
+126
+00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:48,660
+result what it means يعني بيجي يقولنا احسب ال
+
+127
+00:11:48,660 --> 00:11:50,980
+liquid ratio is fine okay what it means liquid
+
+128
+00:11:50,980 --> 00:11:55,440
+ratio then okay activity ratio that's fine so what
+
+129
+00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:59,180
+it means احنا بدلاش نكون stereotyping عارفين ال
+
+130
+00:11:59,180 --> 00:12:03,180
+stereotyping اه انه نيجي و نسمع مانفعش okay look
+
+131
+00:12:03,180 --> 00:12:10,140
+at this ايش حكيته صحإنه we prefer B over A، this
+
+132
+00:12:10,140 --> 00:12:15,100
+is fine، but what is the explanation؟ So as I said
+
+133
+00:12:15,100 --> 00:12:19,840
+you have two eyes, the first one which is your
+
+134
+00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,340
+right side looking at the return and the second,
+
+135
+00:12:22,820 --> 00:12:27,480
+the left looking at the risk. So the numerator
+
+136
+00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,260
+here is the risk premium which is the excess
+
+137
+00:12:30,260 --> 00:12:38,350
+return.وهنا ريزك ماذا يعني؟ يعني إذا كنا نحمل واحد
+
+138
+00:12:38,350 --> 00:12:48,870
+جزء من ريزك في B، فهو جعله 41% ولكن إذا كنا نحمل
+
+139
+00:12:48,870 --> 00:12:54,270
+واحد جزء في A، فهو جعله 35% في كلمات أخرى، في
+
+140
+00:12:54,270 --> 00:13:00,680
+كلمات أخرى، إذا كنا نستخدم واحد دولار في Bit means
+
+141
+00:13:00,680 --> 00:13:04,980
+we can make point forty one cents but if we invest
+
+142
+00:13:04,980 --> 00:13:09,620
+one dollar in a we can make thirty five cents
+
+143
+00:13:09,620 --> 00:13:16,500
+خلينا بالعرب شون يحكي انه واحدة واحدة مخاطر في b
+
+144
+00:13:16,500 --> 00:13:23,320
+بتعطيني عائد زيادة forty one يعني اذا انا اتحملت
+
+145
+00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:27,280
+واحدة واحدة من المخاطر في b بتعطيني عائد زائد
+
+146
+00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:31,990
+forty one centلكن اذا انا اتحملت وحدة مخاطرة في a
+
+147
+00:13:31,990 --> 00:13:36,650
+بتعطيني thirty-five اذا
+
+148
+00:13:36,650 --> 00:13:39,690
+.. يعني ال rest بتكون fixed؟ ال fixed ما احنا ..
+
+149
+00:13:39,690 --> 00:13:43,390
+we standardize تعمل .. لما احنا بنقسم مخصوم عليه
+
+150
+00:13:43,390 --> 00:13:48,170
+بيكون standardized standardized يعني بن .. موحد
+
+151
+00:13:48,170 --> 00:13:53,670
+يعني بيصير okay يعني مثلا ببساطة لما يكون احنا
+
+152
+00:13:53,670 --> 00:13:58,790
+عندنا عشر تفاحات بنقسمهم على خمس أولادعشر طفحات ..
+
+153
+00:13:58,790 --> 00:14:03,850
+don't laugh this is the idea of division هذه فكرة
+
+154
+00:14:03,850 --> 00:14:08,050
+ال division فكرة القسمة لما أكون عند عشر طفحات ten
+
+155
+00:14:08,050 --> 00:14:12,630
+apples and we have five boys so how many apples
+
+156
+00:14:12,630 --> 00:14:17,170
+for each boy أكم طفاح لكل ولد you just .. ten
+
+157
+00:14:17,170 --> 00:14:21,970
+divided by five so it is two what it means two it
+
+158
+00:14:21,970 --> 00:14:27,230
+means one boy holding two apples مظبوط؟
+
+159
+00:14:28,980 --> 00:14:37,200
+ولد إله تفاحتين and in the same vein similarly و
+
+160
+00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:45,120
+بالتشابه it's one unit of risk generates 41% of
+
+161
+00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:50,140
+return و مرات ال principles هذه تبعت الرياضيات و
+
+162
+00:14:50,140 --> 00:14:53,220
+الهادي some people they get confused what it means
+
+163
+00:14:55,420 --> 00:14:58,060
+بعض الناس they get confused they don't know
+
+164
+00:14:58,060 --> 00:15:01,020
+exactly what it means division or what it means
+
+165
+00:15:01,020 --> 00:15:05,040
+the other
+
+166
+00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:09,380
+functions of mathematics so again the idea of
+
+167
+00:15:09,380 --> 00:15:14,760
+sharp ratio is if we holding one unit in risk for
+
+168
+00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:18,640
+a particular stock how much excess return generate
+
+169
+00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:24,690
+to the investorsthe higher the ratio is the .. the
+
+170
+00:15:24,690 --> 00:15:27,810
+more preferable to the investors يعني كل ما كانت
+
+171
+00:15:27,810 --> 00:15:31,350
+ال ratio أعلى كل ما كانت ال investors كانوا بفضله
+
+172
+00:15:31,350 --> 00:15:35,690
+هذه ال .. ال access return مفهوم يا بنات؟
+
+173
+00:15:35,690 --> 00:15:46,270
+commensurate commensurate it means compensate why
+
+174
+00:15:46,270 --> 00:15:49,950
+are you laughing?commensurate شوفوا إيش معناه
+
+175
+00:15:49,950 --> 00:15:54,490
+commensurate commensurate it means ان انا .. طلعوا
+
+176
+00:15:54,490 --> 00:16:02,890
+عني احنا هاي a و هاي b okay في ال mathematics لما
+
+177
+00:16:02,890 --> 00:16:07,890
+نيجي نحكي لإن sigma .. sigma one sigma two because
+
+178
+00:16:07,890 --> 00:16:13,210
+we holding .. we holding higher risk the financial
+
+179
+00:16:13,210 --> 00:16:21,180
+market commensurate usيعني ب .. بكافئنا okay by
+
+180
+00:16:21,180 --> 00:16:25,580
+giving higher return بيعطينا higher return هذا
+
+181
+00:16:25,580 --> 00:16:31,620
+بيسمى commensurate okay
+
+182
+00:16:31,620 --> 00:16:40,660
+that's it طيب
+
+183
+00:16:40,660 --> 00:16:44,640
+نفس الكلام لأن كل ما احنا هذه بتزيد كل ما ال risk
+
+184
+00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:50,880
+بزيدSo it's this similar to the what you are
+
+185
+00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:59,260
+asking. Okay, but any question؟ No؟
+
+186
+00:16:59,260 --> 00:17:04,020
+طيب Okay, pay attention here. This is important as
+
+187
+00:17:04,020 --> 00:17:12,100
+well. تبقوا على الكلام هذا Now
+
+188
+00:17:13,900 --> 00:17:24,200
+المشكلة هي .. كونوا مهتمين هنا كونوا
+
+189
+00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:28,160
+مهتمين هنا عندما نقوم بمقارنة الترجمه نقوم بعمل
+
+190
+00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:34,520
+ذلك باستخدام الارثماتيكي و الجيومتريكي و عندما
+
+191
+00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,820
+نقوم بمقارنة الضرر نقوم بمقارنة التطبيقات
+
+192
+00:17:37,820 --> 00:17:45,850
+والتطبيقات التي هي سجناحكينا عن الكلام ده لما
+
+193
+00:17:45,850 --> 00:17:48,990
+بنحسب ال return بنحسبه بال arithmetic و ال
+
+194
+00:17:48,990 --> 00:17:54,370
+geometric و لما حسبنا ال risk حسبناها بال sigma
+
+195
+00:17:54,370 --> 00:17:58,850
+standard deviation or variance اللي هو انحراف
+
+196
+00:17:58,850 --> 00:18:03,570
+المعياري و التباين، مظبوط؟ okay the problem of
+
+197
+00:18:03,570 --> 00:18:08,430
+these measuresالمشكلة في هذه ال measures we only
+
+198
+00:18:08,430 --> 00:18:12,250
+apply them when our data or our observation
+
+199
+00:18:12,250 --> 00:18:18,890
+follows a normal distribution يعني المشكلة أنه
+
+200
+00:18:18,890 --> 00:18:25,230
+نحسب ال sigmaو الميو الميو يعني ال arithmetic إذا
+
+201
+00:18:25,230 --> 00:18:28,110
+كانت ال data or observation follows the normal
+
+202
+00:18:28,110 --> 00:18:32,590
+distribution إذا كان عندنا توزيع طبيعي طبعا بعرف
+
+203
+00:18:32,590 --> 00:18:37,030
+أن أنتوا ماخدين statistics إحصى what it means
+
+204
+00:18:37,030 --> 00:18:39,430
+normal distribution شو معناه normal distribution
+
+205
+00:18:39,430 --> 00:18:44,690
+توزيع طبيعي شو
+
+206
+00:18:44,690 --> 00:18:50,860
+توزيع طبيعي ماخدته إحصى صح؟ مين مااخدش إحصى؟أخدتوا
+
+207
+00:18:50,860 --> 00:18:53,620
+أحسن درسوكوا في الجامعة موضوع ال normal
+
+208
+00:18:53,620 --> 00:18:58,840
+distribution توزيع الطبيعي طب what it means؟ بس طب
+
+209
+00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:03,620
+okay الرسمة عبير وسمية الرسمة بتاعته just try مش
+
+210
+00:19:03,620 --> 00:19:11,460
+مشكلة just try to figure out because
+
+211
+00:19:11,460 --> 00:19:16,640
+this is important امحي لهذا و مارجينا ال normal
+
+212
+00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:17,140
+distribution
+
+213
+00:19:28,770 --> 00:19:32,910
+Okay excellent بس في ال tail رايحة ال right خلي ال
+
+214
+00:19:32,910 --> 00:19:39,450
+tail زي مشابهين لبعض عارف أيش ال tail يعني اه؟ ال
+
+215
+00:19:39,450 --> 00:19:47,660
+tail يعني الدنبOkay looks fine شكرا
+
+216
+00:19:47,660 --> 00:19:54,020
+this is the normal distribution if
+
+217
+00:19:54,020 --> 00:20:03,100
+we have for instance normal distribution التوزيع
+
+218
+00:20:03,100 --> 00:20:08,160
+الطبيعي in this shape it looks like bell shape
+
+219
+00:20:10,910 --> 00:20:14,810
+تشبه ال build shape يعني زي الجرسة build shape
+
+220
+00:20:14,810 --> 00:20:21,870
+there is a symmetry if we half this just we excuse
+
+221
+00:20:21,870 --> 00:20:25,290
+عبيه just to draw it back يعني احنا بناخد اذن منها
+
+222
+00:20:25,290 --> 00:20:36,950
+to draw it back okay so if you half this into two
+
+223
+00:20:36,950 --> 00:20:44,580
+sectionsSo it's approximately shows the similar or
+
+224
+00:20:44,580 --> 00:20:48,720
+a mirror So the right side is a mirror of the left
+
+225
+00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:53,860
+side يعني ال right side هو mirror لل left side
+
+226
+00:20:53,860 --> 00:21:00,220
+okay This is the normal distribution So it means
+
+227
+00:21:00,220 --> 00:21:05,300
+if we have a daily return for a particular stock
+
+228
+00:21:06,250 --> 00:21:09,490
+and we calculate the daily return for instance in
+
+229
+00:21:09,490 --> 00:21:14,370
+the day one, day two, day three and so on and we
+
+230
+00:21:14,370 --> 00:21:18,790
+just draw the chart اذا احنا أخدنا ال daily return
+
+231
+00:21:18,790 --> 00:21:23,810
+يعني العواقد اليومية مثلا ل250 يوم وعملنا لهم ال
+
+232
+00:21:23,810 --> 00:21:28,930
+chart يعني حطناهم ال chart رسما ف for instance
+
+233
+00:21:28,930 --> 00:21:36,460
+maybe this zero most of the days is zerosOkay and
+
+234
+00:21:36,460 --> 00:21:41,400
+here for instance one percent five percent twelve
+
+235
+00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:46,580
+percent and here twenty percent and here the same
+
+236
+00:21:46,580 --> 00:21:53,060
+one five but minus this and twelve percent minus
+
+237
+00:21:53,060 --> 00:21:57,340
+twenty percent We
+
+238
+00:21:57,340 --> 00:22:02,700
+try to calculate mean median and mode
+
+239
+00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:10,520
+Okay so if our data is follow a normal
+
+240
+00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:15,760
+distribution mean median and mode conclude same
+
+241
+00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,440
+points يعني إذا حسبنا ال mean ال mean ال average
+
+242
+00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:26,840
+صح okay median it halves the data into two
+
+243
+00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:32,060
+separate numbers يعني ال ال ال median تقسمهم إلى
+
+244
+00:22:32,060 --> 00:22:36,820
+عداد متساويةالموديل هو frequency of a particular
+
+245
+00:22:36,820 --> 00:22:44,280
+فلاقينا كلهم اعطونا zero يعني كل ال .. اكتر ..
+
+246
+00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:49,480
+اكتر ال .. ال frequencies zero اذا احنا we have
+
+247
+00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:56,720
+this شفتوا ال data if
+
+248
+00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:57,760
+we calculate ميو
+
+249
+00:23:00,710 --> 00:23:04,930
+يعني الوسط الحسابي بنلاقي أنه the right side
+
+250
+00:23:04,930 --> 00:23:11,410
+approximately equal the left side الجانب اليمين
+
+251
+00:23:11,410 --> 00:23:17,330
+تقريبا بيساوي جانب الشمال okay so this is normal
+
+252
+00:23:17,330 --> 00:23:21,730
+distribution but the problem is sometimes the data
+
+253
+00:23:21,730 --> 00:23:27,050
+is not normally distributed لكن ال data مرات ما
+
+254
+00:23:27,050 --> 00:23:31,040
+بتكونش normally distributedما بتكونش موزع توزيع
+
+255
+00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:38,480
+طبيعي نعود إلى هذا، فقط تذكر هذا و هنرجع نحكي فيها
+
+256
+00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:48,100
+من وجهة نظر المستثمرين، إذا كانت الملاحظة أو
+
+257
+00:23:48,100 --> 00:23:51,360
+المعلومات تتبع المشاركة الطبيعية، فإنها بخير و
+
+258
+00:23:51,360 --> 00:23:57,920
+أسهل لهم أن يشكلوا مجموعاتهميعني إذا كانت ال data
+
+259
+00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,920
+ال observations توزيعها طبيعي زي ما احنا شفنا فال
+
+260
+00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,560
+portfolio managers it easily for them to forming
+
+261
+00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:09,200
+up portfolios يعني بيصيح سهل جدا عليهم أن هم
+
+262
+00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:15,340
+يكونوا portfolios otherwise .. otherwise يعني إذا
+
+263
+00:24:15,340 --> 00:24:20,760
+ماكنتش هيك otherwise it may face challenges in
+
+264
+00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,080
+forming up the portfolios and they have to use
+
+265
+00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:28,190
+other metricsmetrics معناها مقاييس أخرى they have
+
+266
+00:24:28,190 --> 00:24:31,370
+to use other metrics to estimate the risk عشان
+
+267
+00:24:31,370 --> 00:24:36,510
+يتنبأوا بال risk okay so the investment management
+
+268
+00:24:36,510 --> 00:24:39,970
+is easier with them when returns are normally
+
+269
+00:24:39,970 --> 00:24:42,990
+distributed إذا كانت normal like in this shape
+
+270
+00:24:42,990 --> 00:24:48,870
+then based on this sigma or standard deviation is
+
+271
+00:24:48,870 --> 00:24:51,370
+a good measure of risk when returns are symmetric
+
+272
+00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,900
+زي ما أنتوا شايفين ال sigma يعني إذا حسبنا sigma
+
+273
+00:24:56,900 --> 00:25:06,180
+this sigma this let's try it another so sigma one
+
+274
+00:25:06,180 --> 00:25:11,360
+is equals sigma one يعني standard deviation of
+
+275
+00:25:11,360 --> 00:25:14,820
+this side is equals standard deviation of this one
+
+276
+00:25:14,820 --> 00:25:15,800
+okay
+
+277
+00:25:19,740 --> 00:25:21,800
+So in this case standard deviation is a good
+
+278
+00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,980
+measure of risk when returns are symmetric,
+
+279
+00:25:24,740 --> 00:25:30,020
+symmetric it means are equally distributed if not
+
+280
+00:25:30,020 --> 00:25:33,780
+if security returns are symmetric portfolio
+
+281
+00:25:33,780 --> 00:25:37,480
+returns will be too إذا كان symmetric كمان ال
+
+282
+00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,160
+portfolio لما نعمل محفظ استثماري يكون التوزيع تبع
+
+283
+00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:46,720
+توزيع طبيعي توزيع ال return يعني بنحصل على توزيعات
+
+284
+00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,770
+بهذا الشكل portfoliosfuture scenarios can be
+
+285
+00:25:50,770 --> 00:25:52,750
+estimated using only the mean and standard
+
+286
+00:25:52,750 --> 00:25:57,170
+deviation فبعد هيك إذا كان كل شي تمام بيكون كل ال
+
+287
+00:25:57,170 --> 00:26:00,070
+calculations تبعتنا و كل الحسابات عشان نعمل
+
+288
+00:26:00,070 --> 00:26:03,510
+forming لل portfolios portfolios يعني المحافظة بس
+
+289
+00:26:03,510 --> 00:26:07,070
+بنستخدم ال mean and standard deviation يعني
+
+290
+00:26:07,070 --> 00:26:13,850
+بنستخدم ال mean and standard deviation if not إذا
+
+291
+00:26:13,850 --> 00:26:17,940
+كلام هذا مش صحيحwe no longer use sharp ratio
+
+292
+00:26:17,940 --> 00:26:23,080
+standard deviation and the mu إذا الكلام إذا ال
+
+293
+00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:27,200
+data تبعتنا مش normally distributed we cannot use
+
+294
+00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:32,920
+the standard deviation and sharp ratio as well
+
+295
+00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,080
+نقدرش نستخدم ال standard deviation و ال sigma
+
+296
+00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,120
+خلينا
+
+297
+00:26:39,120 --> 00:26:46,840
+بس نركز هان look at this partهذا ال .. ال part
+
+298
+00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:53,360
+اللي بال yellow this
+
+299
+00:26:53,360 --> 00:26:58,580
+is sigma two it should .. هذه sigma two or the
+
+300
+00:26:58,580 --> 00:27:03,940
+second sigma and this is the second sigma this
+
+301
+00:27:03,940 --> 00:27:09,880
+part is the third sigma and this part is the third
+
+302
+00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:13,320
+.. third sigma finally this part .. this is small
+
+303
+00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:18,240
+part you know thisthis is the fourth sigma and
+
+304
+00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,260
+this is the fourth sigma as well I know this is a
+
+305
+00:27:22,260 --> 00:27:26,520
+new thing for you انا بعرف هذا اشي جديد عليكم but
+
+306
+00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:34,040
+I think طيب ما تخافوش اصبر
+
+307
+00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:38,400
+علينا بس تخافوش هذا هتتوضح بس يعني just to
+
+308
+00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,720
+understand in
+
+309
+00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:48,840
+other wordsin other words انه طالع هان ال ميو
+
+310
+00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:54,700
+الموجودة هان is a mirror of the ميو here the
+
+311
+00:27:54,700 --> 00:28:00,700
+second sigma is the variance هو ال variance the
+
+312
+00:28:00,700 --> 00:28:05,780
+third sigma is the skewness the fourth sigma is
+
+313
+00:28:05,780 --> 00:28:13,000
+the kurtosis okay هذه second sigma هي ال standard
+
+314
+00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:19,190
+deviationهذه المفهومة the third sigma هي ال
+
+315
+00:28:19,190 --> 00:28:25,650
+skewness او the skew سمعتوا في skew؟ and fourth
+
+316
+00:28:25,650 --> 00:28:30,170
+sigma والله سمعتوا فيها بس اصبر انا اسكت اسكت اسكت
+
+317
+00:28:30,170 --> 00:28:36,170
+اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت
+
+318
+00:28:36,170 --> 00:28:38,990
+اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت
+
+319
+00:28:38,990 --> 00:28:42,370
+اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت
+
+320
+00:28:42,370 --> 00:28:48,740
+اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسcourtesies okay
+
+321
+00:28:48,740 --> 00:28:53,600
+courtesies اللي هو courtesies ايش معناها
+
+322
+00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:58,840
+courtesies اللي هي التفلطح ال .. ال .. ال flatting
+
+323
+00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:05,540
+هي التفلطح اه هي هيك التفلطح okay courtesies it
+
+324
+00:29:05,540 --> 00:29:08,300
+means it means if the data
+
+325
+00:29:11,690 --> 00:29:15,670
+look at this this chart this data is normally
+
+326
+00:29:15,670 --> 00:29:20,230
+distributed ال data هي normally distributed if it
+
+327
+00:29:20,230 --> 00:29:27,070
+is not look at the third sigma here if it is not
+
+328
+00:29:27,070 --> 00:29:30,430
+so we no longer use the second sigma or the
+
+329
+00:29:30,430 --> 00:29:32,750
+variance or the standard deviation نقدرش نستخدم ال
+
+330
+00:29:32,750 --> 00:29:37,490
+.. because a mu here is not equal the mu here اه
+
+331
+00:29:37,490 --> 00:29:40,370
+خليني اشوف
+
+332
+00:29:53,170 --> 00:30:00,130
+انظروا إلى هذه التاريخ هل
+
+333
+00:30:00,130 --> 00:30:09,590
+هذا يتبع المشاركة الطبيعية؟ لا، هذا هو positivo،
+
+334
+00:30:09,590 --> 00:30:17,730
+لذلك انظروا إلى هنا الميو هنا ليس ايضا ميو هنا،
+
+335
+00:30:17,730 --> 00:30:23,140
+هذا بخيرمثلًا، بسبب هذا، لا نستطيع أن نستخدم
+
+336
+00:30:23,140 --> 00:30:27,880
+الانتجار العام لأن الانتجار العام ليس مرتبط بشكل
+
+337
+00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:33,980
+إيقاعي، وما هي المشكلة؟ المشكلة هي أن الثالث، وهي
+
+338
+00:30:33,980 --> 00:30:43,280
+هذه الجزيرة، ثالث سيجما أكبر من الثالث سيجما هنا،
+
+339
+00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:48,820
+وكذلك الثالث سيجما أكبر من الثالث سيجما هنا، بسيطة
+
+340
+00:30:48,820 --> 00:30:52,120
+جدايعني ال third sigma هنا هي أكبر من ال third
+
+341
+00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,380
+sigma هنا و ال fourth sigma is .. so the third
+
+342
+00:30:55,380 --> 00:30:59,620
+sigma here which is this skewness this skew ..
+
+343
+00:30:59,620 --> 00:31:04,360
+this curve is skewed to the right which means it
+
+344
+00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:10,300
+has a positive skewness yes positive so this skew
+
+345
+00:31:10,300 --> 00:31:14,880
+here is positive which means it's greater than
+
+346
+00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,520
+zero
+
+347
+00:31:19,250 --> 00:31:22,310
+greater than zero what it means greater than zero
+
+348
+00:31:22,310 --> 00:31:30,830
+ايش معناه اللي انه القيم ال outliers في outliers
+
+349
+00:31:30,830 --> 00:31:36,410
+بتعمل bowling the average up بتعمل سحب لل average
+
+350
+00:31:36,410 --> 00:31:43,010
+إلى أعلى okay أغلب ال data متوفرة most of the data
+
+351
+00:31:43,010 --> 00:31:47,730
+is in here لكن في outliers is pushing or bowling
+
+352
+00:31:47,730 --> 00:31:52,190
+the data upفبصير ال mu و ال average is misleading
+
+353
+00:31:52,190 --> 00:31:57,870
+بصير ال average مش دقيق يعني مثلا لو أجينا احنا
+
+354
+00:31:57,870 --> 00:32:02,710
+أعطيناكوا بيانات كتالي علامات طلاب مثلا علامات
+
+355
+00:32:02,710 --> 00:32:10,590
+طلاب أجينا مثلا طالب أخد مية و بدأنا الطلاب خمسين
+
+356
+00:32:10,590 --> 00:32:18,020
+اربعين تلاتين واحدة خمسة و خمسيناربع و خمسين،
+
+357
+00:32:18,020 --> 00:32:22,680
+ستين، ايش بنلاقي انه احنا في اننا تسعة و تسعين
+
+358
+00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:27,660
+بتلاقي انه في شكل ال curve هاد انه most of the
+
+359
+00:32:27,660 --> 00:32:31,800
+data are focusing between fifty to sixty اغلب ال
+
+360
+00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,680
+data بتتركز بال fifty sixty but because of the
+
+361
+00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,460
+outliers شايفين ال outliers هدول is trying to push
+
+362
+00:32:38,460 --> 00:32:44,200
+up the averageبحاولوا انه ال averaging ينبعد ل أو
+
+363
+00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:52,700
+ينسحب لأعلى okay the good news for you so the good
+
+364
+00:32:52,700 --> 00:32:56,140
+news for you i'm not asking you to calculate the
+
+365
+00:32:56,140 --> 00:33:00,320
+skewness or the catharsis انا مش طالبكم ان انتوا
+
+366
+00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:06,700
+تحسبوا ال skew and catharsis because لأنه there is
+
+367
+00:33:08,850 --> 00:33:13,350
+في good news لكم انه مش مطلوب منكم تحسبوا ال .. ال
+
+368
+00:33:13,350 --> 00:33:17,190
+.. ال skewness او the kurtosis .. kurtosis مش
+
+369
+00:33:17,190 --> 00:33:24,090
+مطلوب skew بدي احسبها very simple هي عبارة عن ال
+
+370
+00:33:24,090 --> 00:33:31,010
+.. ال .. ال .. ال mu minus x bar okay divided by
+
+371
+00:33:31,010 --> 00:33:38,510
+sigma raised to the cubeOkay and this is هذا ال SQ
+
+372
+00:33:38,510 --> 00:33:44,690
+نحسب ال .. هي عبارة .. اكتبوا معاها المعادلة واضحة
+
+373
+00:33:44,690 --> 00:33:51,190
+بس ال
+
+374
+00:33:51,190 --> 00:33:56,470
+SQ هتساوي اللي هو R minus R bar raised to the
+
+375
+00:33:56,470 --> 00:34:04,450
+power 3 divided by sigma raised to the power 3هذا
+
+376
+00:34:04,450 --> 00:34:10,650
+عشان نحسب ال .. ال skew يعني سهلا جيب ال R minus R
+
+377
+00:34:10,650 --> 00:34:15,430
+bar و raise to the power 3 بعدين هاي sigma raise
+
+378
+00:34:15,430 --> 00:34:22,850
+to the power 3 very simple اه ال .. ال quote says
+
+379
+00:34:22,850 --> 00:34:26,110
+is
+
+380
+00:34:26,110 --> 00:34:33,120
+equal R minus R bar raise to the power 4مقارنة
+
+381
+00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:42,020
+بالصيغمه ريز تو القوه 4 مانوس 3 إذا
+
+382
+00:34:42,020 --> 00:34:47,540
+كانت نتيجة هذا الـ Q هنا هذا ما تريده إذا كانت
+
+383
+00:34:47,540 --> 00:34:55,700
+نتيجة هذا الـ Q هنا جيدة يعني أن الـ curve هو
+
+384
+00:34:55,700 --> 00:34:57,960
+تغيير ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+385
+00:34:57,960 --> 00:34:59,240
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+386
+00:34:59,240 --> 00:35:00,500
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+387
+00:35:00,500 --> 00:35:00,960
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+388
+00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:01,000
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+389
+00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:08,320
+.. الOkay if it is negative so the curve is skewed
+
+390
+00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:15,800
+to the left okay what is why this is important to
+
+391
+00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,160
+the investors why this is important to the
+
+392
+00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,300
+investors ليش هذا مهم للإنفصار this is a very
+
+393
+00:35:22,300 --> 00:35:26,600
+important point if the curve is skewed to the
+
+394
+00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,820
+right it means people overestimate
+
+395
+00:35:36,330 --> 00:35:42,650
+Risk People overestimate risk if this q is
+
+396
+00:35:42,650 --> 00:35:51,850
+negative it means people underestimate risk okay
+
+397
+00:35:51,850 --> 00:35:55,150
+now
+
+398
+00:35:55,150 --> 00:36:01,870
+for the cartridges the cartridges okay if this q
+
+399
+00:36:01,870 --> 00:36:02,930
+is zero what it means
+
+400
+00:36:05,770 --> 00:36:11,610
+ماذا يعني إذا كانت قيمة قيمة عادية إذا كانت قيمة
+
+401
+00:36:11,610 --> 00:36:15,170
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+402
+00:36:15,170 --> 00:36:19,490
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+403
+00:36:19,490 --> 00:36:21,490
+عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية
+
+404
+00:36:21,490 --> 00:36:21,850
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+405
+00:36:21,850 --> 00:36:21,870
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+406
+00:36:21,870 --> 00:36:30,190
+عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية
+
+407
+00:36:30,190 --> 00:36:31,150
+ق
+
+408
+00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:39,600
+is skewed to the right if the third here is
+
+409
+00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,440
+greater than the third here it means to the left
+
+410
+00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:47,820
+okay now what is the cortices the cortices it
+
+411
+00:36:47,820 --> 00:36:54,200
+means to what extent our data is flat لأي درجة ال
+
+412
+00:36:54,200 --> 00:37:01,200
+data تبعتنا flat يعني مفلطة okayو هاي عندكم ال
+
+413
+00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:05,500
+first sigma و second sigma و third sigma و ..
+
+414
+00:37:05,500 --> 00:37:13,700
+واضحة؟ طلعوا هان تبوا يا بنات هان look
+
+415
+00:37:13,700 --> 00:37:21,180
+at here look at the .. the hard black line this
+
+416
+00:37:21,180 --> 00:37:27,060
+one so it is skewed to the right why it is the
+
+417
+00:37:27,060 --> 00:37:31,670
+right? because it is positive point seventy five
+
+418
+00:37:31,670 --> 00:37:34,690
+look
+
+419
+00:37:34,690 --> 00:37:42,210
+at the look at the this one which is skewed to the
+
+420
+00:37:42,210 --> 00:37:49,130
+left by minus point seventy five the one with the
+
+421
+00:37:49,130 --> 00:37:52,190
+this
+
+422
+00:37:52,190 --> 00:37:56,950
+one which is normal the black one look at the
+
+423
+00:37:56,950 --> 00:38:00,230
+normal one this one
+
+424
+00:38:03,810 --> 00:38:18,250
+لأ هذا اللي .. انظر لهذا اللي اللي أحمر
+
+425
+00:38:18,250 --> 00:38:25,750
+الأن اللي أحمر هو عادى المشاركة لأن الـ skew هي
+
+426
+00:38:25,750 --> 00:38:30,450
+زيرو لأن ال skew تبعتها إيه؟ زيرو، حسنا؟
+
+427
+00:38:41,860 --> 00:38:45,820
+تطلعوا على ال tails تبعت ال .. تطلعوا ال .. ال
+
+428
+00:38:45,820 --> 00:38:51,480
+tails تبعت الكورتوسيز it has a fat tail fat tail
+
+429
+00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:57,100
+okay عندهم fat tail ال data is concentrated in the
+
+430
+00:38:57,100 --> 00:39:06,020
+top و اتطلعوا ال tailمابيعملش touch مع ال .. شوف
+
+431
+00:39:06,020 --> 00:39:08,980
+ال tail هذا كيف شكله okay اللقاء اللي جاي ان شاء
+
+432
+00:39:08,980 --> 00:39:10,040
+الله بنكمل الكلام هذا
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..16945720826a399fcb4b02aa764b781e6602e447
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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asking you what it means based on your understanding of this what it means which is more preferable investors prefer A or B", "tokens": [67, 1843, 292, 538, 3832, 25163, 295, 2031, 311, 2736, 1392, 46811, 10943, 3148, 12049, 8032, 3615, 9566, 1829, 24793, 50113, 15040, 3714, 9307, 9778, 31845, 2407, 8592, 341, 307, 437, 286, 478, 3365, 291, 437, 309, 1355, 2361, 322, 428, 3701, 295, 341, 437, 309, 1355, 597, 307, 544, 4382, 712, 11519, 4382, 316, 420, 363], "avg_logprob": -0.3515625061659977, "compression_ratio": 1.3020833333333333, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 542.46, "end": 543.08, "word": "divided", "probability": 0.6451619466145834}, {"start": 543.08, "end": 543.28, "word": " by", "probability": 0.9833984375}, {"start": 543.28, "end": 543.66, "word": " standard", "probability": 0.7666015625}, {"start": 543.66, "end": 544.2, "word": " deviation", "probability": 0.9326171875}, {"start": 544.2, "end": 545.08, "word": " of", "probability": 0.93408203125}, {"start": 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حكينا ال return و ال risk we get confused some people prefer a others prefer b but now just one single answer إجابة واحدة هتكون which you prefer a or b okay by you are right b but why why b why it is أعلى what is b", "tokens": [2304, 2655, 8848, 37983, 9957, 5296, 15042, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 2423, 2736, 4032, 2423, 3148, 321, 483, 9019, 512, 561, 4382, 257, 2357, 4382, 272, 457, 586, 445, 472, 2167, 1867, 11933, 7435, 16758, 3660, 36764, 24401, 3660, 8032, 2655, 30544, 597, 291, 4382, 257, 420, 272, 1392, 538, 291, 366, 558, 272, 457, 983, 983, 272, 983, 309, 307, 5551, 3615, 23942, 437, 307, 272], "avg_logprob": -0.2552849391804022, "compression_ratio": 1.3802083333333333, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 570.2, "end": 570.7, "word": "متذكرين", "probability": 0.6009521484375}, {"start": 570.7, "end": 570.8, "word": " لما", "probability": 0.927001953125}, {"start": 570.8, "end": 571.24, "word": " حكينا", "probability": 0.9879150390625}, {"start": 571.24, "end": 571.6, 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نفس الكلام لأن كل ما احنا هذه بتزيد كل ما ال risk بزيد", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 4724, 4386, 4724, 4117, 31845, 19986, 8315, 1392, 538, 2902, 2946, 2736, 4724, 40228, 9566, 1829, 8315, 2946, 2736, 23758, 4724, 1829, 38251, 7578, 800, 694, 33144, 1392, 300, 311, 309, 23032, 1829, 3555, 8717, 36178, 2423, 28820, 10943, 5296, 33456, 28242, 19446, 1975, 5016, 8315, 29538, 39894, 11622, 25708, 28242, 19446, 2423, 3148, 4724, 11622, 25708], "avg_logprob": -0.22773437475164732, "compression_ratio": 1.4036144578313252, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 976.18, "end": 976.56, "word": "يعني", "probability": 0.933837890625}, {"start": 976.56, "end": 976.8, "word": " ب", "probability": 0.9736328125}, {"start": 976.8, "end": 977.2, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.36767578125}, {"start": 977.2, "end": 977.96, "word": " بكافئنا", "probability": 0.75419921875}, {"start": 977.96, "end": 979.46, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.55712890625}, {"start": 979.46, "end": 981.18, "word": " by", 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Okay, but any question؟ No؟ طيب Okay, pay attention here. This is important as well. تبقوا على الكلام هذا Now", "tokens": [6455, 309, 311, 341, 2531, 281, 264, 437, 291, 366, 3365, 13, 1033, 11, 457, 604, 1168, 22807, 883, 22807, 23032, 1829, 3555, 1033, 11, 1689, 3202, 510, 13, 639, 307, 1021, 382, 731, 13, 6055, 3555, 4587, 14407, 15844, 2423, 28820, 10943, 23758, 823], "avg_logprob": -0.42153532738270966, "compression_ratio": 1.1538461538461537, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1007.1, "end": 1007.82, "word": "So", "probability": 0.21826171875}, {"start": 1007.82, "end": 1008.18, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.744384765625}, {"start": 1008.18, "end": 1008.48, "word": " this", "probability": 0.58203125}, {"start": 1008.48, "end": 1008.96, "word": " similar", "probability": 0.890625}, {"start": 1008.96, "end": 1009.18, "word": " to", "probability": 0.97412109375}, {"start": 1009.18, "end": 1009.36, "word": " the", "probability": 0.724609375}, {"start": 1009.36, "end": 1010.5, "word": " what", "probability": 0.69677734375}, 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مهتمين هنا كونوا مهتمين هنا عندما نقوم بمقارنة الترجمه نقوم بعمل ذلك باستخدام الارثماتيكي و الجيومتريكي و عندما نقوم بمقارنة الضرر نقوم بمقارنة التطبيقات والتطبيقات التي هي سجنا", "tokens": [45340, 8592, 28820, 3660, 39896, 4386, 9122, 11536, 14407, 3714, 3224, 39237, 9957, 34105, 9122, 11536, 14407, 3714, 3224, 39237, 9957, 34105, 43242, 15042, 8717, 4587, 20498, 4724, 2304, 4587, 9640, 1863, 3660, 16712, 47341, 2304, 3224, 8717, 4587, 20498, 4724, 25957, 1211, 29910, 23275, 4724, 995, 14851, 9778, 3215, 10943, 2423, 9640, 12984, 2304, 9307, 1829, 4117, 1829, 4032, 2423, 7435, 1829, 20498, 2655, 16572, 4117, 1829, 4032, 43242, 15042, 8717, 4587, 20498, 4724, 2304, 4587, 9640, 1863, 3660, 6024, 114, 2288, 2288, 8717, 4587, 20498, 4724, 2304, 4587, 9640, 1863, 3660, 16712, 9566, 21292, 4587, 9307, 16070, 2655, 9566, 21292, 4587, 9307, 38392, 39896, 8608, 7435, 8315], "avg_logprob": -0.5147727419029583, "compression_ratio": 2.25625, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1033.9, 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okay the problem of these measures", "tokens": [5016, 4117, 1829, 8315, 18871, 2423, 28820, 10943, 11778, 3224, 5296, 15042, 44945, 5016, 35457, 2423, 2736, 44945, 5016, 35457, 3224, 20666, 42973, 4032, 2423, 33246, 4032, 5296, 15042, 11331, 35457, 8315, 2423, 3148, 11331, 35457, 8315, 11296, 20666, 12771, 3832, 25163, 420, 21977, 13672, 1829, 31439, 16472, 5016, 23557, 5172, 9673, 3615, 1829, 9640, 1829, 4032, 16712, 3555, 995, 9957, 12399, 3714, 19913, 3555, 2407, 9566, 22807, 1392, 264, 1154, 295, 613, 8000], "avg_logprob": -0.2128125031789144, "compression_ratio": 1.5392156862745099, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1062.71, "end": 1063.63, "word": "حكينا", "probability": 0.7769775390625}, {"start": 1063.63, "end": 1063.71, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.544921875}, {"start": 1063.71, "end": 1063.97, "word": " الكلام", "probability": 0.9187825520833334}, {"start": 1063.97, "end": 1064.35, "word": " ده", "probability": 0.93896484375}, {"start": 1064.35, "end": 1065.85, 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1100.15, "text": "المشكلة في هذه ال measures we only apply them when our data or our observation follows a normal distribution يعني المشكلة أنه نحسب ال sigma", "tokens": [45340, 8592, 28820, 3660, 8978, 29538, 2423, 8000, 321, 787, 3079, 552, 562, 527, 1412, 420, 527, 14816, 10002, 257, 2710, 7316, 37495, 22653, 9673, 8592, 28820, 3660, 14739, 3224, 8717, 5016, 35457, 2423, 12771], "avg_logprob": -0.2021484428809749, "compression_ratio": 1.2183098591549295, "no_speech_prob": 2.384185791015625e-07, "words": [{"start": 1085.45, "end": 1086.05, "word": "المشكلة", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 1086.05, "end": 1086.15, "word": " في", "probability": 0.921875}, {"start": 1086.15, "end": 1086.37, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.8994140625}, {"start": 1086.37, "end": 1086.45, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.6064453125}, {"start": 1086.45, "end": 1086.77, "word": " measures", "probability": 0.47509765625}, {"start": 1086.77, "end": 1087.99, "word": " we", "probability": 0.258056640625}, 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what it means؟ بس طب okay الرسمة عبير وسمية الرسمة بتاعته just try مش مشكلة just try to figure out because this is important امحي لهذا و مارجينا ال normal distribution", "tokens": [10721, 9778, 3215, 2655, 14407, 5551, 5016, 3794, 1863, 11778, 2288, 3794, 2407, 4117, 14407, 8978, 25724, 10943, 27884, 3714, 2407, 11242, 45367, 2423, 2710, 7316, 33427, 11622, 40228, 41950, 21292, 3615, 1829, 23032, 3555, 437, 309, 1355, 22807, 4724, 3794, 23032, 3555, 1392, 34892, 38251, 3660, 6225, 3555, 13546, 4032, 38251, 10632, 34892, 38251, 3660, 39894, 995, 34268, 3224, 445, 853, 37893, 37893, 28820, 3660, 445, 853, 281, 2573, 484, 570, 341, 307, 1021, 1975, 2304, 5016, 1829, 46740, 15730, 4032, 3714, 9640, 7435, 1829, 8315, 2423, 2710, 7316], "avg_logprob": -0.2086195054945055, "compression_ratio": 1.5263157894736843, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1130.4, "end": 1130.86, "word": "أخدتوا", "probability": 0.8216796875}, {"start": 1130.86, "end": 1131.14, "word": " أحسن", "probability": 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shape there is a symmetry if we half this just we excuse عبيه just to draw it back يعني احنا بناخد اذن منها to draw it back okay so if you half this into two sections", "tokens": [2655, 8592, 3555, 3224, 2423, 1322, 3909, 37495, 22653, 30767, 1829, 25724, 2288, 3794, 3660, 1322, 3909, 456, 307, 257, 25440, 498, 321, 1922, 341, 445, 321, 8960, 6225, 21292, 3224, 445, 281, 2642, 309, 646, 37495, 22653, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 47283, 3215, 1975, 8848, 1863, 9154, 11296, 281, 2642, 309, 646, 1392, 370, 498, 291, 1922, 341, 666, 732, 10863], "avg_logprob": -0.16852678997176035, "compression_ratio": 1.464705882352941, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1210.91, "end": 1211.31, "word": "تشبه", "probability": 0.8680419921875}, {"start": 1211.31, "end": 1211.43, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.90869140625}, {"start": 1211.43, "end": 1211.57, "word": " build", "probability": 0.7001953125}, {"start": 1211.57, "end": 1211.83, "word": " shape", "probability": 0.9013671875}, {"start": 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129447, "start": 1266.25, "end": 1294.47, "text": "and we calculate the daily return for instance in the day one, day two, day three and so on and we just draw the chart اذا احنا أخدنا ال daily return يعني العواقد اليومية مثلا ل250 يوم وعملنا لهم ال chart يعني حطناهم ال chart رسما ف for instance maybe this zero most of the days is zeros", "tokens": [474, 321, 8873, 264, 5212, 2736, 337, 5197, 294, 264, 786, 472, 11, 786, 732, 11, 786, 1045, 293, 370, 322, 293, 321, 445, 2642, 264, 6927, 1975, 15730, 1975, 5016, 8315, 5551, 9778, 3215, 8315, 2423, 5212, 2736, 37495, 22653, 18863, 14407, 4587, 3215, 45595, 20498, 10632, 50113, 15040, 5296, 23538, 7251, 20498, 4032, 25957, 1211, 8315, 5296, 16095, 2423, 6927, 37495, 22653, 11331, 9566, 8315, 16095, 2423, 6927, 12602, 38251, 995, 6156, 337, 5197, 1310, 341, 4018, 881, 295, 264, 1708, 307, 35193], "avg_logprob": -0.22329214613798054, "compression_ratio": 1.5990990990990992, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1266.25, "end": 1266.49, 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this and twelve percent minus twenty percent We try to calculate mean median and mode", "tokens": [8297, 293, 510, 337, 5197, 472, 3043, 1732, 3043, 14390, 3043, 293, 510, 7699, 3043, 293, 510, 264, 912, 472, 1732, 457, 3175, 341, 293, 14390, 3043, 3175, 7699, 3043, 492, 853, 281, 8873, 914, 26779, 293, 4391], "avg_logprob": -0.2728365430465111, "compression_ratio": 1.8205128205128205, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1295.44, "end": 1295.84, "word": "Okay", "probability": 0.0802001953125}, {"start": 1295.84, "end": 1296.46, "word": " and", "probability": 0.205810546875}, {"start": 1296.46, "end": 1296.66, "word": " here", "probability": 0.78125}, {"start": 1296.66, "end": 1296.84, "word": " for", "probability": 0.91943359375}, {"start": 1296.84, "end": 1297.1, "word": " instance", "probability": 0.951171875}, {"start": 1297.1, "end": 1297.32, "word": " one", "probability": 0.6123046875}, {"start": 1297.32, "end": 1297.82, "word": " percent", "probability": 0.958984375}, 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the", "probability": 0.93701171875}, {"start": 1626.52, "end": 1626.86, "word": " third", "probability": 0.96142578125}, {"start": 1626.86, "end": 1627.3, "word": " sigma", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 1627.3, "end": 1628.76, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 1628.76, "end": 1628.92, "word": " this", "probability": 0.95703125}, {"start": 1628.92, "end": 1629.18, "word": " part", "probability": 0.91259765625}, {"start": 1629.18, "end": 1629.4, "word": " is", "probability": 0.96435546875}, {"start": 1629.4, "end": 1629.54, "word": " the", "probability": 0.90234375}, {"start": 1629.54, "end": 1629.88, "word": " third", "probability": 0.923828125}, {"start": 1629.88, "end": 1629.94, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.5126953125}, {"start": 1629.94, "end": 1630.18, "word": " third", "probability": 0.9482421875}, {"start": 1630.18, "end": 1630.5, "word": " sigma", "probability": 0.96044921875}, {"start": 1630.5, "end": 1631.92, "word": " finally", "probability": 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thing for you انا بعرف هذا اشي جديد عليكم but I think طيب ما تخافوش اصبر علينا بس تخافوش هذا هتتوضح بس يعني just to understand in other words", "tokens": [11176, 307, 264, 6409, 12771, 293, 341, 307, 264, 6409, 12771, 382, 731, 286, 458, 341, 307, 257, 777, 551, 337, 291, 1975, 8315, 45030, 28480, 23758, 1975, 8592, 1829, 10874, 16254, 3215, 25894, 24793, 457, 286, 519, 23032, 1829, 3555, 19446, 6055, 9778, 31845, 2407, 8592, 1975, 9381, 26890, 25894, 8315, 4724, 3794, 6055, 9778, 31845, 2407, 8592, 23758, 8032, 2655, 2655, 2407, 11242, 5016, 4724, 3794, 37495, 22653, 445, 281, 1223, 294, 661, 2283], "avg_logprob": -0.19744317872183664, "compression_ratio": 1.513089005235602, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1635.1, "end": 1635.38, "word": "this", "probability": 0.466796875}, {"start": 1635.38, "end": 1635.54, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9677734375}, {"start": 1635.54, "end": 1635.74, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8837890625}, {"start": 1635.74, "end": 1636.18, "word": 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0.91064453125}, {"start": 1642.04, "end": 1642.16, "word": " is", "probability": 0.94921875}, {"start": 1642.16, "end": 1642.26, "word": " a", "probability": 0.64599609375}, {"start": 1642.26, "end": 1642.4, "word": " new", "probability": 0.9169921875}, {"start": 1642.4, "end": 1642.56, "word": " thing", "probability": 0.7158203125}, {"start": 1642.56, "end": 1642.74, "word": " for", "probability": 0.96240234375}, {"start": 1642.74, "end": 1643.46, "word": " you", "probability": 0.97021484375}, {"start": 1643.46, "end": 1643.8, "word": " انا", "probability": 0.45074462890625}, {"start": 1643.8, "end": 1644.1, "word": " بعرف", "probability": 0.919677734375}, {"start": 1644.1, "end": 1644.38, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.849609375}, {"start": 1644.38, "end": 1645.04, "word": " اشي", "probability": 0.7476399739583334}, {"start": 1645.04, "end": 1645.24, "word": " جديد", "probability": 0.9493815104166666}, {"start": 1645.24, "end": 1645.88, "word": " عليكم", "probability": 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0.95361328125}, {"start": 1656.44, "end": 1656.72, "word": " بس", "probability": 0.968505859375}, {"start": 1656.72, "end": 1657.08, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.73388671875}, {"start": 1657.08, "end": 1658.28, "word": " just", "probability": 0.884765625}, {"start": 1658.28, "end": 1658.4, "word": " to", "probability": 0.95947265625}, {"start": 1658.4, "end": 1658.92, "word": " understand", "probability": 0.849609375}, {"start": 1658.92, "end": 1662.72, "word": " in", "probability": 0.90087890625}, {"start": 1662.72, "end": 1663.0, "word": " other", "probability": 0.8916015625}, {"start": 1663.0, "end": 1663.4, "word": " words", "probability": 0.89453125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 62, "seek": 169348, "start": 1665.24, "end": 1693.48, "text": "in other words انه طالع هان ال ميو الموجودة هان is a mirror of the ميو here the second sigma is the variance هو ال variance the third sigma is the skewness the fourth sigma is the kurtosis okay هذه second sigma هي ال standard deviation", 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0.75927734375}, {"start": 1682.32, "end": 1682.94, "word": " skewness", "probability": 0.9757486979166666}, {"start": 1682.94, "end": 1684.42, "word": " the", "probability": 0.845703125}, {"start": 1684.42, "end": 1684.8, "word": " fourth", "probability": 0.89697265625}, {"start": 1684.8, "end": 1685.32, "word": " sigma", "probability": 0.92333984375}, {"start": 1685.32, "end": 1685.78, "word": " is", "probability": 0.96240234375}, {"start": 1685.78, "end": 1685.94, "word": " the", "probability": 0.91357421875}, {"start": 1685.94, "end": 1686.54, "word": " kurtosis", "probability": 0.63427734375}, {"start": 1686.54, "end": 1689.16, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.2109375}, {"start": 1689.16, "end": 1690.16, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.388916015625}, {"start": 1690.16, "end": 1690.46, "word": " second", "probability": 0.54248046875}, {"start": 1690.46, "end": 1690.94, "word": " sigma", "probability": 0.9404296875}, {"start": 1690.94, "end": 1692.54, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.8623046875}, {"start": 1692.54, "end": 1692.68, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.88671875}, {"start": 1692.68, "end": 1693.0, "word": " standard", "probability": 0.95751953125}, {"start": 1693.0, "end": 1693.48, "word": " deviation", "probability": 0.94677734375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 63, "seek": 172403, "start": 1695.41, "end": 1724.03, "text": "هذه المفهومة the third sigma هي ال skewness او the skew سمعتوا في skew؟ and fourth sigma والله سمعتوا فيها بس اصبر انا اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اس", "tokens": [3224, 24192, 9673, 5172, 3224, 20498, 3660, 264, 2636, 12771, 39896, 2423, 8756, 895, 442, 1975, 2407, 264, 8756, 86, 8608, 2304, 34268, 14407, 8978, 8756, 86, 22807, 293, 6409, 12771, 16070, 43761, 8608, 2304, 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seventy", "probability": 0.8564453125}, {"start": 2265.39, "end": 2265.85, "word": " five", "probability": 0.83349609375}, {"start": 2265.85, "end": 2267.77, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8251953125}, {"start": 2267.77, "end": 2268.13, "word": " one", "probability": 0.94580078125}, {"start": 2268.13, "end": 2268.57, "word": " with", "probability": 0.921875}, {"start": 2268.57, "end": 2269.13, "word": " the", "probability": 0.90576171875}, {"start": 2269.13, "end": 2272.19, "word": " this", "probability": 0.85302734375}, {"start": 2272.19, "end": 2272.49, "word": " one", "probability": 0.93701171875}, {"start": 2272.49, "end": 2273.67, "word": " which", "probability": 0.9482421875}, {"start": 2273.67, "end": 2273.83, "word": " is", "probability": 0.96337890625}, {"start": 2273.83, "end": 2274.25, "word": " normal", "probability": 0.87109375}, {"start": 2274.25, "end": 2275.81, "word": " the", "probability": 0.859375}, {"start": 2275.81, "end": 2276.11, "word": " black", "probability": 0.912109375}, {"start": 2276.11, "end": 2276.31, "word": " one", "probability": 0.9443359375}, {"start": 2276.31, "end": 2276.49, "word": " look", "probability": 0.91552734375}, {"start": 2276.49, "end": 2276.65, "word": " at", "probability": 0.97265625}, {"start": 2276.65, "end": 2276.95, "word": " the", "probability": 0.939453125}, {"start": 2276.95, "end": 2278.03, "word": " normal", "probability": 0.2666015625}, {"start": 2278.03, "end": 2278.39, "word": " one", "probability": 0.9462890625}, {"start": 2278.39, "end": 2279.95, "word": " this", "probability": 0.92919921875}, {"start": 2279.95, "end": 2280.23, "word": " one", "probability": 0.93408203125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 83, "seek": 231044, "start": 2283.81, "end": 2310.45, "text": "لأ هذا اللي .. انظر لهذا اللي اللي أحمر الأن اللي أحمر هو عادى المشاركة لأن الـ skew هي زيرو لأن ال skew تبعتها إيه؟ زيرو، حسنا؟", "tokens": [1211, 10721, 23758, 13672, 1829, 4386, 16472, 19913, 2288, 46740, 15730, 13672, 1829, 13672, 1829, 5551, 5016, 29973, 16247, 1863, 13672, 1829, 5551, 5016, 29973, 31439, 6225, 18513, 7578, 9673, 8592, 9640, 4117, 3660, 5296, 33456, 2423, 39184, 8756, 86, 39896, 30767, 1829, 32887, 5296, 33456, 2423, 8756, 86, 6055, 3555, 34268, 11296, 11933, 1829, 3224, 22807, 30767, 1829, 32887, 12399, 11331, 3794, 8315, 22807], "avg_logprob": -0.6922348475817478, "compression_ratio": 1.6417910447761195, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2283.81, "end": 2284.17, "word": "لأ", "probability": 0.6865234375}, {"start": 2284.17, "end": 2284.63, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.493896484375}, {"start": 2284.63, "end": 2285.11, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.4288330078125}, {"start": 2285.11, "end": 2285.85, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.381103515625}, {"start": 2285.85, "end": 2287.33, "word": " انظر", "probability": 0.71728515625}, {"start": 2287.33, "end": 2287.67, "word": " لهذا", "probability": 0.76708984375}, {"start": 2287.67, "end": 2289.49, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.843505859375}, {"start": 2289.49, "end": 2289.53, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.6190185546875}, {"start": 2289.53, "end": 2298.25, "word": " أحمر", "probability": 0.22210693359375}, {"start": 2298.25, "end": 2298.71, "word": " الأن", "probability": 0.51873779296875}, {"start": 2298.71, "end": 2300.01, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.7626953125}, {"start": 2300.01, "end": 2300.17, "word": " أحمر", "probability": 0.9529622395833334}, {"start": 2300.17, "end": 2300.97, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.47314453125}, {"start": 2300.97, "end": 2301.51, "word": " عادى", "probability": 0.4012858072916667}, {"start": 2301.51, "end": 2302.23, "word": " المشاركة", "probability": 0.4072509765625}, {"start": 2302.23, "end": 2303.29, "word": " لأن", "probability": 0.80078125}, {"start": 2303.29, "end": 2304.67, "word": " الـ", "probability": 0.10760498046875}, {"start": 2304.67, "end": 2305.51, "word": " skew", "probability": 0.75537109375}, {"start": 2305.51, "end": 2305.75, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.2442626953125}, {"start": 2305.75, "end": 2306.11, "word": " زيرو", "probability": 0.4835611979166667}, {"start": 2306.11, "end": 2306.99, "word": " لأن", "probability": 0.68603515625}, {"start": 2306.99, "end": 2307.07, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.8466796875}, {"start": 2307.07, "end": 2307.35, "word": " skew", "probability": 0.90283203125}, {"start": 2307.35, "end": 2307.73, "word": " تبعتها", "probability": 0.800048828125}, {"start": 2307.73, "end": 2308.21, "word": " إيه؟", "probability": 0.681640625}, {"start": 2308.21, "end": 2309.29, "word": " زيرو،", "probability": 0.5284423828125}, {"start": 2309.29, "end": 2310.45, "word": " حسنا؟", "probability": 0.714111328125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 84, "seek": 233973, "start": 2321.86, "end": 2339.74, "text": "تطلعوا على ال tails تبعت ال .. تطلعوا ال .. ال tails تبعت الكورتوسيز it has a fat tail fat tail okay عندهم fat tail ال data is concentrated in the top و اتطلعوا ال tail", "tokens": [2655, 9566, 1211, 3615, 14407, 15844, 2423, 28537, 6055, 3555, 34268, 2423, 4386, 6055, 9566, 1211, 3615, 14407, 2423, 4386, 2423, 28537, 6055, 3555, 34268, 33251, 13063, 2655, 41779, 1829, 11622, 309, 575, 257, 4046, 6838, 4046, 6838, 1392, 43242, 16095, 4046, 6838, 2423, 1412, 307, 21321, 294, 264, 1192, 4032, 1975, 2655, 9566, 1211, 3615, 14407, 2423, 6838], "avg_logprob": -0.34895833432674406, "compression_ratio": 1.591549295774648, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2321.8599999999997, "end": 2322.62, "word": "تطلعوا", "probability": 0.7131591796875}, {"start": 2322.62, "end": 2322.78, "word": " على", "probability": 0.775390625}, {"start": 2322.78, "end": 2322.92, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.62744140625}, {"start": 2322.92, "end": 2323.18, "word": " tails", "probability": 0.6708984375}, {"start": 2323.18, "end": 2323.56, "word": " تبعت", "probability": 0.5855305989583334}, {"start": 2323.56, "end": 2323.8, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.73681640625}, {"start": 2323.8, "end": 2324.26, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.505859375}, {"start": 2324.26, "end": 2325.42, "word": " تطلعوا", "probability": 0.89560546875}, {"start": 2325.42, "end": 2325.58, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.72314453125}, {"start": 2325.58, "end": 2325.58, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.449462890625}, {"start": 2325.58, "end": 2325.82, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.89013671875}, {"start": 2325.82, "end": 2326.02, "word": " tails", "probability": 0.669921875}, {"start": 2326.02, "end": 2326.36, "word": " تبعت", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 2326.36, "end": 2327.28, "word": " الكورتوسيز", "probability": 0.6243082682291666}, {"start": 2327.28, "end": 2328.36, "word": " it", "probability": 0.5966796875}, {"start": 2328.36, "end": 2328.62, "word": " has", "probability": 0.9482421875}, {"start": 2328.62, "end": 2328.74, "word": " a", "probability": 0.99072265625}, {"start": 2328.74, "end": 2328.98, "word": " fat", "probability": 0.958984375}, {"start": 2328.98, "end": 2329.38, "word": " tail", "probability": 0.87646484375}, {"start": 2329.38, "end": 2331.1, "word": " fat", "probability": 0.11090087890625}, {"start": 2331.1, "end": 2331.48, "word": " tail", "probability": 0.90673828125}, {"start": 2331.48, "end": 2332.84, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.5693359375}, {"start": 2332.84, "end": 2333.96, "word": " عندهم", "probability": 0.938720703125}, {"start": 2333.96, "end": 2334.26, "word": " fat", "probability": 0.89111328125}, {"start": 2334.26, "end": 2334.54, "word": " tail", "probability": 0.89990234375}, {"start": 2334.54, "end": 2335.32, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.399169921875}, {"start": 2335.32, "end": 2335.6, "word": " data", "probability": 0.9716796875}, {"start": 2335.6, "end": 2336.02, "word": " is", "probability": 0.908203125}, {"start": 2336.02, "end": 2336.7, "word": " concentrated", "probability": 0.92333984375}, {"start": 2336.7, "end": 2336.98, "word": " in", "probability": 0.92578125}, {"start": 2336.98, "end": 2337.1, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9267578125}, {"start": 2337.1, "end": 2337.46, "word": " top", "probability": 0.94970703125}, {"start": 2337.46, "end": 2338.34, "word": " و", "probability": 0.66357421875}, {"start": 2338.34, "end": 2338.78, "word": " اتطلعوا", "probability": 0.8367919921875}, {"start": 2338.78, "end": 2339.18, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9443359375}, {"start": 2339.18, "end": 2339.74, "word": " tail", "probability": 0.75634765625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 85, "seek": 235004, "start": 2342.16, "end": 2350.04, "text": "مابيعملش touch مع ال .. شوف ال tail هذا كيف شكله okay اللقاء اللي جاي ان شاء الله بنكمل الكلام هذا", "tokens": [15042, 21292, 25957, 1211, 8592, 2557, 20449, 2423, 4386, 13412, 38688, 2423, 6838, 23758, 9122, 33911, 13412, 28820, 3224, 1392, 13672, 4587, 16606, 13672, 1829, 10874, 47302, 16472, 13412, 16606, 21984, 44945, 24793, 1211, 2423, 28820, 10943, 23758], "avg_logprob": -0.16085736797406122, "compression_ratio": 1.3416666666666666, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2342.16, "end": 2342.64, "word": "مابيعملش", "probability": 0.90517578125}, {"start": 2342.64, "end": 2342.88, "word": " touch", "probability": 0.76904296875}, {"start": 2342.88, "end": 2343.12, "word": " مع", "probability": 0.98486328125}, {"start": 2343.12, "end": 2343.74, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.845703125}, {"start": 2343.74, "end": 2345.66, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.88134765625}, {"start": 2345.66, "end": 2346.02, "word": " شوف", "probability": 0.841064453125}, {"start": 2346.02, "end": 2346.12, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.68359375}, {"start": 2346.12, "end": 2346.3, "word": " tail", "probability": 0.755859375}, {"start": 2346.3, "end": 2346.52, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.884765625}, {"start": 2346.52, "end": 2346.7, "word": " كيف", "probability": 0.975341796875}, {"start": 2346.7, "end": 2347.1, "word": " شكله", "probability": 0.9773763020833334}, {"start": 2347.1, "end": 2348.04, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.52197265625}, {"start": 2348.04, "end": 2348.54, "word": " اللقاء", "probability": 0.9363606770833334}, {"start": 2348.54, "end": 2348.64, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.6402587890625}, {"start": 2348.64, "end": 2348.76, "word": " جاي", "probability": 0.78564453125}, {"start": 2348.76, "end": 2348.84, "word": " ان", "probability": 0.8349609375}, {"start": 2348.84, "end": 2348.98, "word": " شاء", "probability": 0.978271484375}, {"start": 2348.98, "end": 2349.06, "word": " الله", "probability": 0.96435546875}, {"start": 2349.06, "end": 2349.52, "word": " بنكمل", "probability": 0.8190104166666666}, {"start": 2349.52, "end": 2349.82, "word": " الكلام", "probability": 0.92529296875}, {"start": 2349.82, "end": 2350.04, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.97314453125}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2351.2525, "duration_after_vad": 2220.221874999993}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c1d679e95c06bf4d5d2ddfedcd5b4c8cbaa3a76c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1768 @@
+1
+00:00:21,330 --> 00:00:24,710
+ال .. في المعنى الفاتحة حكينا عن ال arithmetic و
+
+2
+00:00:24,710 --> 00:00:30,790
+ال geometric methods and we agree on that both
+
+3
+00:00:30,790 --> 00:00:39,330
+methods concludes approximately similar answers
+
+4
+00:00:39,330 --> 00:00:42,390
+with
+
+5
+00:00:42,390 --> 00:00:47,430
+regard to risk يعني حسب ال riskطيب اليوم هنحكي على
+
+6
+00:00:47,430 --> 00:00:52,450
+ال reward to volatility نحكي على sharp ratio خلينا
+
+7
+00:00:52,450 --> 00:01:01,810
+نرجع ل this chart again نرجع لهذا ال chart okay و
+
+8
+00:01:01,810 --> 00:01:08,450
+just if we have a and b if we have stock a and
+
+9
+00:01:08,450 --> 00:01:12,410
+stock b and this is sigma and this is the expected
+
+10
+00:01:12,410 --> 00:01:22,850
+returnسؤالي هو ماهو أفضل؟ Stock A أو Stock B؟ ماهو
+
+11
+00:01:22,850 --> 00:01:28,490
+أفضل؟ Stock A أو Stock B؟ Stock B Stock B، لماذا
+
+12
+00:01:28,490 --> 00:01:33,910
+Stock B؟ أكثر
+
+13
+00:01:33,910 --> 00:01:38,730
+من 10 أكثر من 10 ولكن في الوقت نفسه يتخلص من أقل
+
+14
+00:01:38,730 --> 00:01:39,390
+فرصة
+
+15
+00:01:43,190 --> 00:01:46,010
+we cannot say this نقدرش نحكم الكلام على ده
+
+16
+00:01:46,010 --> 00:01:53,130
+because some investors acquire lower return with
+
+17
+00:01:53,130 --> 00:01:57,790
+lower risk other investors acquire higher return
+
+18
+00:01:57,790 --> 00:02:04,570
+with higher risk okay so some investors prefer A
+
+19
+00:02:04,570 --> 00:02:09,070
+others investors prefer B يعني بعض المستثمين بفضله
+
+20
+00:02:09,070 --> 00:02:14,720
+A بعض المستثمين الأخرين بفضله بفضله BOkay لكن
+
+21
+00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:18,020
+نقدرش
+
+22
+00:02:18,020 --> 00:02:24,780
+نحكم if you only focus on return and if we only
+
+23
+00:02:24,780 --> 00:02:28,400
+focus on risk يعني إذا إحنا بس بنركز بال return
+
+24
+00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,820
+على وحده أو بنركز على ال risk على وحده it is not
+
+25
+00:02:31,820 --> 00:02:38,420
+useful ف sharp .. sharp develop a ratio which
+
+26
+00:02:38,420 --> 00:02:43,740
+called sharp ratio لأن هي طورته باسمهand this
+
+27
+00:02:43,740 --> 00:02:49,440
+sharp ratio link the return with the risk طربط ال
+
+28
+00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,960
+risk ال return مع ال risk okay يعني لو أجينا احنا
+
+29
+00:02:52,960 --> 00:03:02,280
+ل A و B حكينا ال E return تبع A is six percent and
+
+30
+00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:11,670
+this is nine percentوالسيجما اللي هو حرارة a هو 0
+
+31
+00:03:11,670 --> 00:03:23,810
+.12 وسيجما بيه 0.75 حسنا؟ لذلك الآن a يحافظ على
+
+32
+00:03:23,810 --> 00:03:31,970
+حرارة أسفة وحرارة أسفة كذلك بي حافظ على حرارة أعلى
+
+33
+00:03:31,970 --> 00:03:38,260
+وحرارة أعلىat the moment we cannot conclude which
+
+34
+00:03:38,260 --> 00:03:42,000
+investment we should prefer يعني لللحظة هذه ما
+
+35
+00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:49,700
+بنقدرش to conclude أي واحدة أفضل A ولا B so we
+
+36
+00:03:49,700 --> 00:03:55,360
+need a ratio that combining the return and risk
+
+37
+00:03:55,360 --> 00:04:01,450
+together نحتاجلـ ratio لمعادلة بتعمل mixing or
+
+38
+00:04:01,450 --> 00:04:05,330
+combining ل ال return و ال risk مع بعض ان احنا
+
+39
+00:04:05,330 --> 00:04:09,810
+نحتاج لمعادلة تخلطهم مع بعض to mix this and end
+
+40
+00:04:09,810 --> 00:04:13,610
+with one figure and one figure just compare this
+
+41
+00:04:13,610 --> 00:04:20,670
+with this and this is what's been done by sharp و
+
+42
+00:04:20,670 --> 00:04:23,810
+هذا اللي سووا sharp sharp just mixing
+
+43
+00:04:26,830 --> 00:04:31,050
+العادة العادية مع العادة العادية الصحيحة الواضحة
+
+44
+00:04:31,050 --> 00:04:40,590
+الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة
+
+45
+00:04:40,590 --> 00:04:40,810
+الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة
+
+46
+00:04:40,810 --> 00:04:40,810
+الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة
+
+47
+00:04:40,810 --> 00:04:45,530
+الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة
+
+48
+00:04:45,530 --> 00:04:49,730
+الواضحة الواضحةand this is sigma one and this is
+
+49
+00:04:49,730 --> 00:04:57,170
+sigma two sigma one is a measure of risk because
+
+50
+00:04:57,170 --> 00:05:03,170
+and this
+
+51
+00:05:03,170 --> 00:05:07,990
+is a and this is b because b holding higher risk
+
+52
+00:05:07,990 --> 00:05:12,590
+so it should be compensated by the market by this
+
+53
+00:05:12,590 --> 00:05:19,700
+لأن ب تحمل مخاطر أعلىإذا لازم نعوضها بعائد أكتر
+
+54
+00:05:19,700 --> 00:05:25,020
+فهنا بنسمي risk premium هذا المنطقة اسمها risk
+
+55
+00:05:25,020 --> 00:05:30,220
+premium why risk premium؟ why risk premium؟ ليش
+
+56
+00:05:30,220 --> 00:05:35,940
+risk premium؟ because B holding higher risk
+
+57
+00:05:35,940 --> 00:05:39,180
+because it's holding higher risk it's compensated
+
+58
+00:05:39,180 --> 00:05:43,620
+by higher return okay so this is the risk premium
+
+59
+00:05:43,620 --> 00:05:46,180
+and
+
+60
+00:05:49,430 --> 00:05:53,810
+هذا هو الترجمه و بعدها مقياسه بالترجمه العادى
+
+61
+00:05:53,810 --> 00:05:54,530
+للترجمه العادى للترجمه العادى للترجمه العادى
+
+62
+00:05:54,530 --> 00:05:58,650
+لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه
+
+63
+00:05:58,650 --> 00:06:00,470
+العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى
+
+64
+00:06:00,470 --> 00:06:00,890
+لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه
+
+65
+00:06:00,890 --> 00:06:01,910
+العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى
+
+66
+00:06:01,910 --> 00:06:05,190
+لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه
+
+67
+00:06:05,190 --> 00:06:07,930
+العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى لترجمه العادى
+
+68
+00:06:07,930 --> 00:06:14,630
+لترجمه العادى
+
+69
+00:06:14,630 --> 00:06:19,690
+ليعني what is the probability to get this excess
+
+70
+00:06:19,690 --> 00:06:23,420
+returned؟إيش احتمال؟ Okay, we agree this is a
+
+71
+00:06:23,420 --> 00:06:28,400
+compensation from .. from the market because B is
+
+72
+00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:33,500
+holding a greater risk than A, this is fine, but
+
+73
+00:06:33,500 --> 00:06:38,280
+the second question, we are uncertain that the
+
+74
+00:06:38,280 --> 00:06:43,320
+market can give this return لكن المشكلة التانية إن
+
+75
+00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:49,090
+أحنا مش متأكدين السوق هيعطينا ال return ولا لأrisk
+
+76
+00:06:49,090 --> 00:06:53,230
+يعني ايش عرفنا احنا ال risk اول زمان قبل تلت
+
+77
+00:06:53,230 --> 00:06:56,070
+محاضرات اربعة محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات اربعة
+
+78
+00:06:56,070 --> 00:06:56,090
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+79
+00:06:56,090 --> 00:06:56,090
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+80
+00:06:56,090 --> 00:06:56,450
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+81
+00:06:56,450 --> 00:06:57,630
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+82
+00:06:57,630 --> 00:07:02,990
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+83
+00:07:02,990 --> 00:07:10,410
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرclosely
+
+84
+00:07:10,410 --> 00:07:15,050
+speaking .. closely speaking يعني كتير .. يعني ن
+
+85
+00:07:15,050 --> 00:07:19,150
+.. نأكد closely speaking that the Sharpe ratio
+
+86
+00:07:19,150 --> 00:07:23,590
+consider the .. the excess return which is risk
+
+87
+00:07:23,590 --> 00:07:28,710
+premium divided by the risk يعني بالأخير هي هذا ال
+
+88
+00:07:28,710 --> 00:07:40,190
+return divided by riskعادة نحصل على 9% كعادة ولكن
+
+89
+00:07:40,190 --> 00:07:47,450
+المشكلة هي إلى أي درجة نحصل على 9% لأي درجة أننا
+
+90
+00:07:47,450 --> 00:07:56,310
+متأكدين نحصل على 9% عادة عادة
+
+91
+00:07:56,310 --> 00:08:03,510
+عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة
+
+92
+00:08:03,510 --> 00:08:06,380
+عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادةOkay let's now
+
+93
+00:08:06,380 --> 00:08:15,640
+to give example of a and b خلينا when
+
+94
+00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:21,560
+we calculate a when we calculate a the sharp ratio
+
+95
+00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:27,980
+of a is point thirty eight مين كان أول a و لا بي
+
+96
+00:08:27,980 --> 00:08:39,370
+بي فوق كانت أه okay so thirty fiveand B is 41 so
+
+97
+00:08:39,370 --> 00:08:43,310
+we calculate sharp ratio for A and B حسبنا ال
+
+98
+00:08:43,310 --> 00:08:49,930
+sharp ratio ل A and B and we find that A is 35 and
+
+99
+00:08:49,930 --> 00:08:55,990
+B is 41 what it means لأ أنا أعطيتك مثال طبعا كيف
+
+100
+00:08:55,990 --> 00:09:03,280
+طلعناها طلعناها بال risk premiumdivided by
+
+101
+00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:10,220
+standard deviation of x's return okay تمام risk
+
+102
+00:09:10,220 --> 00:09:16,060
+premium هعطيكم مثلا ماتخافوش this
+
+103
+00:09:16,060 --> 00:09:20,680
+is what I'm asking you what it means based on your
+
+104
+00:09:20,680 --> 00:09:25,000
+understanding of this what it means which is more
+
+105
+00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:30,800
+preferable investors prefer A or Bمتذكرين لما
+
+106
+00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:34,040
+حكينا ال return و ال risk we get confused some
+
+107
+00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:38,620
+people prefer a others prefer b but now just one
+
+108
+00:09:38,620 --> 00:09:43,440
+single answer إجابة واحدة هتكون which you prefer a
+
+109
+00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:53,520
+or b okay by you are right b but why why b why it
+
+110
+00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,940
+is أعلى what is b
+
+111
+00:10:04,190 --> 00:10:08,330
+Okay because the return will increase in the
+
+112
+00:10:08,330 --> 00:10:15,590
+future okay the performance of stockswhen you
+
+113
+00:10:15,590 --> 00:10:19,450
+explain this focus on two things focus in return
+
+114
+00:10:19,450 --> 00:10:22,870
+focus in the excess return and risk together لأن
+
+115
+00:10:22,870 --> 00:10:26,870
+هدوء احنا قلنا انه كان المشاكل بال return لوحده و
+
+116
+00:10:26,870 --> 00:10:32,110
+ال sigma لوحدها انه you judge on return and you
+
+117
+00:10:32,110 --> 00:10:36,750
+judge on risk but now you judge on both مع بعض
+
+118
+00:10:36,750 --> 00:10:48,600
+التنامدك تحكي so what it means35 و
+
+119
+00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,640
+41 ماهي
+
+120
+00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:58,420
+الفرق بين 35 و 41 ماهي الفرق اعلى اعلى اعلى اعلى
+
+121
+00:10:58,420 --> 00:11:06,220
+اعلى اعلى اعلى اعلى اعلى
+
+122
+00:11:14,410 --> 00:11:20,850
+بتجمع بناتهم بعدين
+
+123
+00:11:20,850 --> 00:11:25,450
+بنات
+
+124
+00:11:25,450 --> 00:11:30,730
+ولا في أسهل من ال calculations ولا في أسهل من ال
+
+125
+00:11:30,730 --> 00:11:36,010
+calculations بتجيبكوا معادلة يحسبوها كل بيحسبها و
+
+126
+00:11:36,010 --> 00:11:39,760
+بتاخدوا مية في المية في الحساباتلكن ال problem is
+
+127
+00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:44,840
+how to explain the result المشكلة كيف ن .. ال
+
+128
+00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:48,660
+result what it means يعني بيجي يقولنا احسب ال
+
+129
+00:11:48,660 --> 00:11:50,980
+liquid ratio is fine okay what it means liquid
+
+130
+00:11:50,980 --> 00:11:55,440
+ratio then okay activity ratio that's fine so what
+
+131
+00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:59,180
+it means احنا بدلاش نكون stereotyping عارفين ال
+
+132
+00:11:59,180 --> 00:12:03,180
+stereotyping اه انه نيجي و نسمع مانفعش okay look
+
+133
+00:12:03,180 --> 00:12:10,140
+at this ايش حكيته صحإنه we prefer B over A، this
+
+134
+00:12:10,140 --> 00:12:15,100
+is fine، but what is the explanation؟ So as I said
+
+135
+00:12:15,100 --> 00:12:19,840
+you have two eyes, the first one which is your
+
+136
+00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,340
+right side looking at the return and the second,
+
+137
+00:12:22,820 --> 00:12:27,480
+the left looking at the risk. So the numerator
+
+138
+00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,260
+here is the risk premium which is the excess
+
+139
+00:12:30,260 --> 00:12:38,350
+return.وهنا ريزك ماذا يعني؟ يعني إذا كنا نحمل واحد
+
+140
+00:12:38,350 --> 00:12:48,870
+جزء من ريزك في B، فهو جعله 41% ولكن إذا كنا نحمل
+
+141
+00:12:48,870 --> 00:12:54,270
+واحد جزء في A، فهو جعله 35% في كلمات أخرى، في
+
+142
+00:12:54,270 --> 00:13:00,680
+كلمات أخرى، إذا كنا نستخدم واحد دولار في Bit means
+
+143
+00:13:00,680 --> 00:13:04,980
+we can make point forty one cents but if we invest
+
+144
+00:13:04,980 --> 00:13:09,620
+one dollar in a we can make thirty five cents
+
+145
+00:13:09,620 --> 00:13:16,500
+خلينا بالعرب شون يحكي انه واحدة واحدة مخاطر في b
+
+146
+00:13:16,500 --> 00:13:23,320
+بتعطيني عائد زيادة forty one يعني اذا انا اتحملت
+
+147
+00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:27,280
+واحدة واحدة من المخاطر في b بتعطيني عائد زائد
+
+148
+00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:31,990
+forty one centلكن اذا انا اتحملت وحدة مخاطرة في a
+
+149
+00:13:31,990 --> 00:13:36,650
+بتعطيني thirty-five اذا
+
+150
+00:13:36,650 --> 00:13:39,690
+.. يعني ال rest بتكون fixed؟ ال fixed ما احنا ..
+
+151
+00:13:39,690 --> 00:13:43,390
+we standardize تعمل .. لما احنا بنقسم مخصوم عليه
+
+152
+00:13:43,390 --> 00:13:48,170
+بيكون standardized standardized يعني بن .. موحد
+
+153
+00:13:48,170 --> 00:13:53,670
+يعني بيصير okay يعني مثلا ببساطة لما يكون احنا
+
+154
+00:13:53,670 --> 00:13:58,790
+عندنا عشر تفاحات بنقسمهم على خمس أولادعشر طفحات ..
+
+155
+00:13:58,790 --> 00:14:03,850
+don't laugh this is the idea of division هذه فكرة
+
+156
+00:14:03,850 --> 00:14:08,050
+ال division فكرة القسمة لما أكون عند عشر طفحات ten
+
+157
+00:14:08,050 --> 00:14:12,630
+apples and we have five boys so how many apples
+
+158
+00:14:12,630 --> 00:14:17,170
+for each boy أكم طفاح لكل ولد you just .. ten
+
+159
+00:14:17,170 --> 00:14:21,970
+divided by five so it is two what it means two it
+
+160
+00:14:21,970 --> 00:14:27,230
+means one boy holding two apples مظبوط؟
+
+161
+00:14:28,980 --> 00:14:37,200
+ولد إله تفاحتين and in the same vein similarly و
+
+162
+00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:45,120
+بالتشابه it's one unit of risk generates 41% of
+
+163
+00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:50,140
+return و مرات ال principles هذه تبعت الرياضيات و
+
+164
+00:14:50,140 --> 00:14:53,220
+الهادي some people they get confused what it means
+
+165
+00:14:55,420 --> 00:14:58,060
+بعض الناس they get confused they don't know
+
+166
+00:14:58,060 --> 00:15:01,020
+exactly what it means division or what it means
+
+167
+00:15:01,020 --> 00:15:05,040
+the other
+
+168
+00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:09,380
+functions of mathematics so again the idea of
+
+169
+00:15:09,380 --> 00:15:14,760
+sharp ratio is if we holding one unit in risk for
+
+170
+00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:18,640
+a particular stock how much excess return generate
+
+171
+00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:24,690
+to the investorsthe higher the ratio is the .. the
+
+172
+00:15:24,690 --> 00:15:27,810
+more preferable to the investors يعني كل ما كانت
+
+173
+00:15:27,810 --> 00:15:31,350
+ال ratio أعلى كل ما كانت ال investors كانوا بفضله
+
+174
+00:15:31,350 --> 00:15:35,690
+هذه ال .. ال access return مفهوم يا بنات؟
+
+175
+00:15:35,690 --> 00:15:46,270
+commensurate commensurate it means compensate why
+
+176
+00:15:46,270 --> 00:15:49,950
+are you laughing?commensurate شوفوا إيش معناه
+
+177
+00:15:49,950 --> 00:15:54,490
+commensurate commensurate it means ان انا .. طلعوا
+
+178
+00:15:54,490 --> 00:16:02,890
+عني احنا هاي a و هاي b okay في ال mathematics لما
+
+179
+00:16:02,890 --> 00:16:07,890
+نيجي نحكي لإن sigma .. sigma one sigma two because
+
+180
+00:16:07,890 --> 00:16:13,210
+we holding .. we holding higher risk the financial
+
+181
+00:16:13,210 --> 00:16:21,180
+market commensurate usيعني ب .. بكافئنا okay by
+
+182
+00:16:21,180 --> 00:16:25,580
+giving higher return بيعطينا higher return هذا
+
+183
+00:16:25,580 --> 00:16:31,620
+بيسمى commensurate okay
+
+184
+00:16:31,620 --> 00:16:40,660
+that's it طيب
+
+185
+00:16:40,660 --> 00:16:44,640
+نفس الكلام لأن كل ما احنا هذه بتزيد كل ما ال risk
+
+186
+00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:50,880
+بزيدSo it's this similar to the what you are
+
+187
+00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:59,260
+asking. Okay, but any question؟ No؟
+
+188
+00:16:59,260 --> 00:17:04,020
+طيب Okay, pay attention here. This is important as
+
+189
+00:17:04,020 --> 00:17:12,100
+well. تبقوا على الكلام هذا Now
+
+190
+00:17:13,900 --> 00:17:24,200
+المشكلة هي .. كونوا مهتمين هنا كونوا
+
+191
+00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:28,160
+مهتمين هنا عندما نقوم بمقارنة الترجمه نقوم بعمل
+
+192
+00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:34,520
+ذلك باستخدام الارثماتيكي و الجيومتريكي و عندما
+
+193
+00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,820
+نقوم بمقارنة الضرر نقوم بمقارنة التطبيقات
+
+194
+00:17:37,820 --> 00:17:45,850
+والتطبيقات التي هي سجناحكينا عن الكلام ده لما
+
+195
+00:17:45,850 --> 00:17:48,990
+بنحسب ال return بنحسبه بال arithmetic و ال
+
+196
+00:17:48,990 --> 00:17:54,370
+geometric و لما حسبنا ال risk حسبناها بال sigma
+
+197
+00:17:54,370 --> 00:17:58,850
+standard deviation or variance اللي هو انحراف
+
+198
+00:17:58,850 --> 00:18:03,570
+المعياري و التباين، مظبوط؟ okay the problem of
+
+199
+00:18:03,570 --> 00:18:08,430
+these measuresالمشكلة في هذه ال measures we only
+
+200
+00:18:08,430 --> 00:18:12,250
+apply them when our data or our observation
+
+201
+00:18:12,250 --> 00:18:18,890
+follows a normal distribution يعني المشكلة أنه
+
+202
+00:18:18,890 --> 00:18:25,230
+نحسب ال sigmaو الميو الميو يعني ال arithmetic إذا
+
+203
+00:18:25,230 --> 00:18:28,110
+كانت ال data or observation follows the normal
+
+204
+00:18:28,110 --> 00:18:32,590
+distribution إذا كان عندنا توزيع طبيعي طبعا بعرف
+
+205
+00:18:32,590 --> 00:18:37,030
+أن أنتوا ماخدين statistics إحصى what it means
+
+206
+00:18:37,030 --> 00:18:39,430
+normal distribution شو معناه normal distribution
+
+207
+00:18:39,430 --> 00:18:44,690
+توزيع طبيعي شو
+
+208
+00:18:44,690 --> 00:18:50,860
+توزيع طبيعي ماخدته إحصى صح؟ مين مااخدش إحصى؟أخدتوا
+
+209
+00:18:50,860 --> 00:18:53,620
+أحسن درسوكوا في الجامعة موضوع ال normal
+
+210
+00:18:53,620 --> 00:18:58,840
+distribution توزيع الطبيعي طب what it means؟ بس طب
+
+211
+00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:03,620
+okay الرسمة عبير وسمية الرسمة بتاعته just try مش
+
+212
+00:19:03,620 --> 00:19:11,460
+مشكلة just try to figure out because
+
+213
+00:19:11,460 --> 00:19:16,640
+this is important امحي لهذا و مارجينا ال normal
+
+214
+00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:17,140
+distribution
+
+215
+00:19:28,770 --> 00:19:32,910
+Okay excellent بس في ال tail رايحة ال right خلي ال
+
+216
+00:19:32,910 --> 00:19:39,450
+tail زي مشابهين لبعض عارف أيش ال tail يعني اه؟ ال
+
+217
+00:19:39,450 --> 00:19:47,660
+tail يعني الدنبOkay looks fine شكرا
+
+218
+00:19:47,660 --> 00:19:54,020
+this is the normal distribution if
+
+219
+00:19:54,020 --> 00:20:03,100
+we have for instance normal distribution التوزيع
+
+220
+00:20:03,100 --> 00:20:08,160
+الطبيعي in this shape it looks like bell shape
+
+221
+00:20:10,910 --> 00:20:14,810
+تشبه ال build shape يعني زي الجرسة build shape
+
+222
+00:20:14,810 --> 00:20:21,870
+there is a symmetry if we half this just we excuse
+
+223
+00:20:21,870 --> 00:20:25,290
+عبيه just to draw it back يعني احنا بناخد اذن منها
+
+224
+00:20:25,290 --> 00:20:36,950
+to draw it back okay so if you half this into two
+
+225
+00:20:36,950 --> 00:20:44,580
+sectionsSo it's approximately shows the similar or
+
+226
+00:20:44,580 --> 00:20:48,720
+a mirror So the right side is a mirror of the left
+
+227
+00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:53,860
+side يعني ال right side هو mirror لل left side
+
+228
+00:20:53,860 --> 00:21:00,220
+okay This is the normal distribution So it means
+
+229
+00:21:00,220 --> 00:21:05,300
+if we have a daily return for a particular stock
+
+230
+00:21:06,250 --> 00:21:09,490
+and we calculate the daily return for instance in
+
+231
+00:21:09,490 --> 00:21:14,370
+the day one, day two, day three and so on and we
+
+232
+00:21:14,370 --> 00:21:18,790
+just draw the chart اذا احنا أخدنا ال daily return
+
+233
+00:21:18,790 --> 00:21:23,810
+يعني العواقد اليومية مثلا ل250 يوم وعملنا لهم ال
+
+234
+00:21:23,810 --> 00:21:28,930
+chart يعني حطناهم ال chart رسما ف for instance
+
+235
+00:21:28,930 --> 00:21:36,460
+maybe this zero most of the days is zerosOkay and
+
+236
+00:21:36,460 --> 00:21:41,400
+here for instance one percent five percent twelve
+
+237
+00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:46,580
+percent and here twenty percent and here the same
+
+238
+00:21:46,580 --> 00:21:53,060
+one five but minus this and twelve percent minus
+
+239
+00:21:53,060 --> 00:21:57,340
+twenty percent We
+
+240
+00:21:57,340 --> 00:22:02,700
+try to calculate mean median and mode
+
+241
+00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:10,520
+Okay so if our data is follow a normal
+
+242
+00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:15,760
+distribution mean median and mode conclude same
+
+243
+00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,440
+points يعني إذا حسبنا ال mean ال mean ال average
+
+244
+00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:26,840
+صح okay median it halves the data into two
+
+245
+00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:32,060
+separate numbers يعني ال ال ال median تقسمهم إلى
+
+246
+00:22:32,060 --> 00:22:36,820
+عداد متساويةالموديل هو frequency of a particular
+
+247
+00:22:36,820 --> 00:22:44,280
+فلاقينا كلهم اعطونا zero يعني كل ال .. اكتر ..
+
+248
+00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:49,480
+اكتر ال .. ال frequencies zero اذا احنا we have
+
+249
+00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:56,720
+this شفتوا ال data if
+
+250
+00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:57,760
+we calculate ميو
+
+251
+00:23:00,710 --> 00:23:04,930
+يعني الوسط الحسابي بنلاقي أنه the right side
+
+252
+00:23:04,930 --> 00:23:11,410
+approximately equal the left side الجانب اليمين
+
+253
+00:23:11,410 --> 00:23:17,330
+تقريبا بيساوي جانب الشمال okay so this is normal
+
+254
+00:23:17,330 --> 00:23:21,730
+distribution but the problem is sometimes the data
+
+255
+00:23:21,730 --> 00:23:27,050
+is not normally distributed لكن ال data مرات ما
+
+256
+00:23:27,050 --> 00:23:31,040
+بتكونش normally distributedما بتكونش موزع توزيع
+
+257
+00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:38,480
+طبيعي نعود إلى هذا، فقط تذكر هذا و هنرجع نحكي فيها
+
+258
+00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:48,100
+من وجهة نظر المستثمرين، إذا كانت الملاحظة أو
+
+259
+00:23:48,100 --> 00:23:51,360
+المعلومات تتبع المشاركة الطبيعية، فإنها بخير و
+
+260
+00:23:51,360 --> 00:23:57,920
+أسهل لهم أن يشكلوا مجموعاتهميعني إذا كانت ال data
+
+261
+00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,920
+ال observations توزيعها طبيعي زي ما احنا شفنا فال
+
+262
+00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,560
+portfolio managers it easily for them to forming
+
+263
+00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:09,200
+up portfolios يعني بيصيح سهل جدا عليهم أن هم
+
+264
+00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:15,340
+يكونوا portfolios otherwise .. otherwise يعني إذا
+
+265
+00:24:15,340 --> 00:24:20,760
+ماكنتش هيك otherwise it may face challenges in
+
+266
+00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,080
+forming up the portfolios and they have to use
+
+267
+00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:28,190
+other metricsmetrics معناها مقاييس أخرى they have
+
+268
+00:24:28,190 --> 00:24:31,370
+to use other metrics to estimate the risk عشان
+
+269
+00:24:31,370 --> 00:24:36,510
+يتنبأوا بال risk okay so the investment management
+
+270
+00:24:36,510 --> 00:24:39,970
+is easier with them when returns are normally
+
+271
+00:24:39,970 --> 00:24:42,990
+distributed إذا كانت normal like in this shape
+
+272
+00:24:42,990 --> 00:24:48,870
+then based on this sigma or standard deviation is
+
+273
+00:24:48,870 --> 00:24:51,370
+a good measure of risk when returns are symmetric
+
+274
+00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,900
+زي ما أنتوا شايفين ال sigma يعني إذا حسبنا sigma
+
+275
+00:24:56,900 --> 00:25:06,180
+this sigma this let's try it another so sigma one
+
+276
+00:25:06,180 --> 00:25:11,360
+is equals sigma one يعني standard deviation of
+
+277
+00:25:11,360 --> 00:25:14,820
+this side is equals standard deviation of this one
+
+278
+00:25:14,820 --> 00:25:15,800
+okay
+
+279
+00:25:19,740 --> 00:25:21,800
+So in this case standard deviation is a good
+
+280
+00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,980
+measure of risk when returns are symmetric,
+
+281
+00:25:24,740 --> 00:25:30,020
+symmetric it means are equally distributed if not
+
+282
+00:25:30,020 --> 00:25:33,780
+if security returns are symmetric portfolio
+
+283
+00:25:33,780 --> 00:25:37,480
+returns will be too إذا كان symmetric كمان ال
+
+284
+00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,160
+portfolio لما نعمل محفظ استثماري يكون التوزيع تبع
+
+285
+00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:46,720
+توزيع طبيعي توزيع ال return يعني بنحصل على توزيعات
+
+286
+00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,770
+بهذا الشكل portfoliosfuture scenarios can be
+
+287
+00:25:50,770 --> 00:25:52,750
+estimated using only the mean and standard
+
+288
+00:25:52,750 --> 00:25:57,170
+deviation فبعد هيك إذا كان كل شي تمام بيكون كل ال
+
+289
+00:25:57,170 --> 00:26:00,070
+calculations تبعتنا و كل الحسابات عشان نعمل
+
+290
+00:26:00,070 --> 00:26:03,510
+forming لل portfolios portfolios يعني المحافظة بس
+
+291
+00:26:03,510 --> 00:26:07,070
+بنستخدم ال mean and standard deviation يعني
+
+292
+00:26:07,070 --> 00:26:13,850
+بنستخدم ال mean and standard deviation if not إذا
+
+293
+00:26:13,850 --> 00:26:17,940
+كلام هذا مش صحيحwe no longer use sharp ratio
+
+294
+00:26:17,940 --> 00:26:23,080
+standard deviation and the mu إذا الكلام إذا ال
+
+295
+00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:27,200
+data تبعتنا مش normally distributed we cannot use
+
+296
+00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:32,920
+the standard deviation and sharp ratio as well
+
+297
+00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,080
+نقدرش نستخدم ال standard deviation و ال sigma
+
+298
+00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,120
+خلينا
+
+299
+00:26:39,120 --> 00:26:46,840
+بس نركز هان look at this partهذا ال .. ال part
+
+300
+00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:53,360
+اللي بال yellow this
+
+301
+00:26:53,360 --> 00:26:58,580
+is sigma two it should .. هذه sigma two or the
+
+302
+00:26:58,580 --> 00:27:03,940
+second sigma and this is the second sigma this
+
+303
+00:27:03,940 --> 00:27:09,880
+part is the third sigma and this part is the third
+
+304
+00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:13,320
+.. third sigma finally this part .. this is small
+
+305
+00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:18,240
+part you know thisthis is the fourth sigma and
+
+306
+00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,260
+this is the fourth sigma as well I know this is a
+
+307
+00:27:22,260 --> 00:27:26,520
+new thing for you انا بعرف هذا اشي جديد عليكم but
+
+308
+00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:34,040
+I think طيب ما تخافوش اصبر
+
+309
+00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:38,400
+علينا بس تخافوش هذا هتتوضح بس يعني just to
+
+310
+00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,720
+understand in
+
+311
+00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:48,840
+other wordsin other words انه طالع هان ال ميو
+
+312
+00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:54,700
+الموجودة هان is a mirror of the ميو here the
+
+313
+00:27:54,700 --> 00:28:00,700
+second sigma is the variance هو ال variance the
+
+314
+00:28:00,700 --> 00:28:05,780
+third sigma is the skewness the fourth sigma is
+
+315
+00:28:05,780 --> 00:28:13,000
+the kurtosis okay هذه second sigma هي ال standard
+
+316
+00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:19,190
+deviationهذه المفهومة the third sigma هي ال
+
+317
+00:28:19,190 --> 00:28:25,650
+skewness او the skew سمعتوا في skew؟ and fourth
+
+318
+00:28:25,650 --> 00:28:30,170
+sigma والله سمعتوا فيها بس اصبر انا اسكت اسكت اسكت
+
+319
+00:28:30,170 --> 00:28:36,170
+اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت
+
+320
+00:28:36,170 --> 00:28:38,990
+اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت
+
+321
+00:28:38,990 --> 00:28:42,370
+اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت
+
+322
+00:28:42,370 --> 00:28:42,370
+اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت
+
+323
+00:28:42,370 --> 00:28:42,370
+اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت
+
+324
+00:28:42,370 --> 00:28:48,740
+اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسكت اسcourtesies okay
+
+325
+00:28:48,740 --> 00:28:53,600
+courtesies اللي هو courtesies ايش معناها
+
+326
+00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:58,840
+courtesies اللي هي التفلطح ال .. ال .. ال flatting
+
+327
+00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:05,540
+هي التفلطح اه هي هيك التفلطح okay courtesies it
+
+328
+00:29:05,540 --> 00:29:08,300
+means it means if the data
+
+329
+00:29:11,690 --> 00:29:15,670
+look at this this chart this data is normally
+
+330
+00:29:15,670 --> 00:29:20,230
+distributed ال data هي normally distributed if it
+
+331
+00:29:20,230 --> 00:29:27,070
+is not look at the third sigma here if it is not
+
+332
+00:29:27,070 --> 00:29:30,430
+so we no longer use the second sigma or the
+
+333
+00:29:30,430 --> 00:29:32,750
+variance or the standard deviation نقدرش نستخدم ال
+
+334
+00:29:32,750 --> 00:29:37,490
+.. because a mu here is not equal the mu here اه
+
+335
+00:29:37,490 --> 00:29:40,370
+خليني اشوف
+
+336
+00:29:53,170 --> 00:30:00,130
+انظروا إلى هذه التاريخ هل
+
+337
+00:30:00,130 --> 00:30:09,590
+هذا يتبع المشاركة الطبيعية؟ لا، هذا هو positivo،
+
+338
+00:30:09,590 --> 00:30:17,730
+لذلك انظروا إلى هنا الميو هنا ليس ايضا ميو هنا،
+
+339
+00:30:17,730 --> 00:30:23,140
+هذا بخيرمثلًا، بسبب هذا، لا نستطيع أن نستخدم
+
+340
+00:30:23,140 --> 00:30:27,880
+الانتجار العام لأن الانتجار العام ليس مرتبط بشكل
+
+341
+00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:33,980
+إيقاعي، وما هي المشكلة؟ المشكلة هي أن الثالث، وهي
+
+342
+00:30:33,980 --> 00:30:43,280
+هذه الجزيرة، ثالث سيجما أكبر من الثالث سيجما هنا،
+
+343
+00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:48,820
+وكذلك الثالث سيجما أكبر من الثالث سيجما هنا، بسيطة
+
+344
+00:30:48,820 --> 00:30:52,120
+جدايعني ال third sigma هنا هي أكبر من ال third
+
+345
+00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,380
+sigma هنا و ال fourth sigma is .. so the third
+
+346
+00:30:55,380 --> 00:30:59,620
+sigma here which is this skewness this skew ..
+
+347
+00:30:59,620 --> 00:31:04,360
+this curve is skewed to the right which means it
+
+348
+00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:10,300
+has a positive skewness yes positive so this skew
+
+349
+00:31:10,300 --> 00:31:14,880
+here is positive which means it's greater than
+
+350
+00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,520
+zero
+
+351
+00:31:19,250 --> 00:31:22,310
+greater than zero what it means greater than zero
+
+352
+00:31:22,310 --> 00:31:30,830
+ايش معناه اللي انه القيم ال outliers في outliers
+
+353
+00:31:30,830 --> 00:31:36,410
+بتعمل bowling the average up بتعمل سحب لل average
+
+354
+00:31:36,410 --> 00:31:43,010
+إلى أعلى okay أغلب ال data متوفرة most of the data
+
+355
+00:31:43,010 --> 00:31:47,730
+is in here لكن في outliers is pushing or bowling
+
+356
+00:31:47,730 --> 00:31:52,190
+the data upفبصير ال mu و ال average is misleading
+
+357
+00:31:52,190 --> 00:31:57,870
+بصير ال average مش دقيق يعني مثلا لو أجينا احنا
+
+358
+00:31:57,870 --> 00:32:02,710
+أعطيناكوا بيانات كتالي علامات طلاب مثلا علامات
+
+359
+00:32:02,710 --> 00:32:10,590
+طلاب أجينا مثلا طالب أخد مية و بدأنا الطلاب خمسين
+
+360
+00:32:10,590 --> 00:32:18,020
+اربعين تلاتين واحدة خمسة و خمسيناربع و خمسين،
+
+361
+00:32:18,020 --> 00:32:22,680
+ستين، ايش بنلاقي انه احنا في اننا تسعة و تسعين
+
+362
+00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:27,660
+بتلاقي انه في شكل ال curve هاد انه most of the
+
+363
+00:32:27,660 --> 00:32:31,800
+data are focusing between fifty to sixty اغلب ال
+
+364
+00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,680
+data بتتركز بال fifty sixty but because of the
+
+365
+00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,460
+outliers شايفين ال outliers هدول is trying to push
+
+366
+00:32:38,460 --> 00:32:44,200
+up the averageبحاولوا انه ال averaging ينبعد ل أو
+
+367
+00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:52,700
+ينسحب لأعلى okay the good news for you so the good
+
+368
+00:32:52,700 --> 00:32:56,140
+news for you i'm not asking you to calculate the
+
+369
+00:32:56,140 --> 00:33:00,320
+skewness or the catharsis انا مش طالبكم ان انتوا
+
+370
+00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:06,700
+تحسبوا ال skew and catharsis because لأنه there is
+
+371
+00:33:08,850 --> 00:33:13,350
+في good news لكم انه مش مطلوب منكم تحسبوا ال .. ال
+
+372
+00:33:13,350 --> 00:33:17,190
+.. ال skewness او the kurtosis .. kurtosis مش
+
+373
+00:33:17,190 --> 00:33:24,090
+مطلوب skew بدي احسبها very simple هي عبارة عن ال
+
+374
+00:33:24,090 --> 00:33:31,010
+.. ال .. ال .. ال mu minus x bar okay divided by
+
+375
+00:33:31,010 --> 00:33:38,510
+sigma raised to the cubeOkay and this is هذا ال SQ
+
+376
+00:33:38,510 --> 00:33:44,690
+نحسب ال .. هي عبارة .. اكتبوا معاها المعادلة واضحة
+
+377
+00:33:44,690 --> 00:33:51,190
+بس ال
+
+378
+00:33:51,190 --> 00:33:56,470
+SQ هتساوي اللي هو R minus R bar raised to the
+
+379
+00:33:56,470 --> 00:34:04,450
+power 3 divided by sigma raised to the power 3هذا
+
+380
+00:34:04,450 --> 00:34:10,650
+عشان نحسب ال .. ال skew يعني سهلا جيب ال R minus R
+
+381
+00:34:10,650 --> 00:34:15,430
+bar و raise to the power 3 بعدين هاي sigma raise
+
+382
+00:34:15,430 --> 00:34:22,850
+to the power 3 very simple اه ال .. ال quote says
+
+383
+00:34:22,850 --> 00:34:26,110
+is
+
+384
+00:34:26,110 --> 00:34:33,120
+equal R minus R bar raise to the power 4مقارنة
+
+385
+00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:42,020
+بالصيغمه ريز تو القوه 4 مانوس 3 إذا
+
+386
+00:34:42,020 --> 00:34:47,540
+كانت نتيجة هذا الـ Q هنا هذا ما تريده إذا كانت
+
+387
+00:34:47,540 --> 00:34:55,700
+نتيجة هذا الـ Q هنا جيدة يعني أن الـ curve هو
+
+388
+00:34:55,700 --> 00:34:57,960
+تغيير ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+389
+00:34:57,960 --> 00:34:59,240
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+390
+00:34:59,240 --> 00:35:00,500
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+391
+00:35:00,500 --> 00:35:00,960
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+392
+00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:01,000
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+393
+00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:01,000
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+394
+00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:01,000
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+395
+00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:01,000
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+396
+00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:01,000
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+397
+00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:08,320
+.. الOkay if it is negative so the curve is skewed
+
+398
+00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:15,800
+to the left okay what is why this is important to
+
+399
+00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,160
+the investors why this is important to the
+
+400
+00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,300
+investors ليش هذا مهم للإنفصار this is a very
+
+401
+00:35:22,300 --> 00:35:26,600
+important point if the curve is skewed to the
+
+402
+00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,820
+right it means people overestimate
+
+403
+00:35:36,330 --> 00:35:42,650
+Risk People overestimate risk if this q is
+
+404
+00:35:42,650 --> 00:35:51,850
+negative it means people underestimate risk okay
+
+405
+00:35:51,850 --> 00:35:55,150
+now
+
+406
+00:35:55,150 --> 00:36:01,870
+for the cartridges the cartridges okay if this q
+
+407
+00:36:01,870 --> 00:36:02,930
+is zero what it means
+
+408
+00:36:05,770 --> 00:36:11,610
+ماذا يعني إذا كانت قيمة قيمة عادية إذا كانت قيمة
+
+409
+00:36:11,610 --> 00:36:15,170
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+410
+00:36:15,170 --> 00:36:15,170
+عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية
+
+411
+00:36:15,170 --> 00:36:19,490
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+412
+00:36:19,490 --> 00:36:21,490
+عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية
+
+413
+00:36:21,490 --> 00:36:21,850
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+414
+00:36:21,850 --> 00:36:21,850
+عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية
+
+415
+00:36:21,850 --> 00:36:21,870
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+416
+00:36:21,870 --> 00:36:30,190
+عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية
+
+417
+00:36:30,190 --> 00:36:31,150
+ق
+
+418
+00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:39,600
+is skewed to the right if the third here is
+
+419
+00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,440
+greater than the third here it means to the left
+
+420
+00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:47,820
+okay now what is the cortices the cortices it
+
+421
+00:36:47,820 --> 00:36:54,200
+means to what extent our data is flat لأي درجة ال
+
+422
+00:36:54,200 --> 00:37:01,200
+data تبعتنا flat يعني مفلطة okayو هاي عندكم ال
+
+423
+00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:05,500
+first sigma و second sigma و third sigma و ..
+
+424
+00:37:05,500 --> 00:37:13,700
+واضحة؟ طلعوا هان تبوا يا بنات هان look
+
+425
+00:37:13,700 --> 00:37:21,180
+at here look at the .. the hard black line this
+
+426
+00:37:21,180 --> 00:37:27,060
+one so it is skewed to the right why it is the
+
+427
+00:37:27,060 --> 00:37:31,670
+right? because it is positive point seventy five
+
+428
+00:37:31,670 --> 00:37:34,690
+look
+
+429
+00:37:34,690 --> 00:37:42,210
+at the look at the this one which is skewed to the
+
+430
+00:37:42,210 --> 00:37:49,130
+left by minus point seventy five the one with the
+
+431
+00:37:49,130 --> 00:37:52,190
+this
+
+432
+00:37:52,190 --> 00:37:56,950
+one which is normal the black one look at the
+
+433
+00:37:56,950 --> 00:38:00,230
+normal one this one
+
+434
+00:38:03,810 --> 00:38:18,250
+لأ هذا اللي .. انظر لهذا اللي اللي أحمر
+
+435
+00:38:18,250 --> 00:38:25,750
+الأن اللي أحمر هو عادى المشاركة لأن الـ skew هي
+
+436
+00:38:25,750 --> 00:38:30,450
+زيرو لأن ال skew تبعتها إيه؟ زيرو، حسنا؟
+
+437
+00:38:41,860 --> 00:38:45,820
+تطلعوا على ال tails تبعت ال .. تطلعوا ال .. ال
+
+438
+00:38:45,820 --> 00:38:51,480
+tails تبعت الكورتوسيز it has a fat tail fat tail
+
+439
+00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:57,100
+okay عندهم fat tail ال data is concentrated in the
+
+440
+00:38:57,100 --> 00:39:06,020
+top و اتطلعوا ال tailمابيعملش touch مع ال .. شوف
+
+441
+00:39:06,020 --> 00:39:08,980
+ال tail هذا كيف شكله okay اللقاء اللي جاي ان شاء
+
+442
+00:39:08,980 --> 00:39:10,040
+الله بنكمل الكلام هذا
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/g6Dw4Dppwrs.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/g6Dw4Dppwrs.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..23cf8c067cd5e714063f180acec61e51df8a8ca2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/g6Dw4Dppwrs.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1539 @@
+1
+00:00:20,940 --> 00:00:25,580
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم في الـ .. في المحاضرات
+
+2
+00:00:25,580 --> 00:00:29,300
+السابقة كنا نحكي عن الـ .. الـ efficiency markets و
+
+3
+00:00:29,300 --> 00:00:35,320
+market efficiency event studies اللي هو دراسة ..
+
+4
+00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,500
+أحداث بتصير في .. في تاريخ المنشئات بيسموها event
+
+5
+00:00:38,500 --> 00:00:43,640
+studies to examine the .. whether the market is
+
+6
+00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:49,140
+efficient or not the main focus on the event
+
+7
+00:00:49,140 --> 00:00:52,540
+studies عشان احنا نعرف انه هل السوق المالي
+
+8
+00:00:52,540 --> 00:00:56,100
+efficient ولا مش efficient or efficient or
+
+9
+00:00:56,100 --> 00:01:00,420
+inefficient most of the researchers using event
+
+10
+00:01:00,420 --> 00:01:05,560
+studies أغلب الباحثين بيعملوا .. بِمارسوا على event
+
+11
+00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:10,340
+studies okay what it means event studies ايش معناه
+
+12
+00:01:10,340 --> 00:01:14,540
+event studies what it means event حدث أعطوني مثال
+
+13
+00:01:14,540 --> 00:01:17,500
+give me example about a particular event in a
+
+14
+00:01:17,500 --> 00:01:21,800
+company أعطوني حدث معين في شركة صار في شركة
+
+15
+00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:26,660
+ما بدناش يكون في .. في .. في اقتصاد يعني a
+
+16
+00:01:26,660 --> 00:01:30,120
+particular event ايش فيه أحداث في الشركات؟ اللي هو
+
+17
+00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,960
+اللي بيجي للشركة اللي بتاعتها okay خلي نشوف أكثر
+
+18
+00:01:34,960 --> 00:01:39,060
+دقة من الـ event ده ايش فيه event فعلاً ايش فيه
+
+19
+00:01:39,060 --> 00:01:40,940
+أحداث بتصير في حياة الشركات؟
+
+20
+00:01:44,510 --> 00:01:48,570
+أه ربح و خسارة اللي هو paying dividends paying
+
+21
+00:01:48,570 --> 00:01:53,690
+dividends مظبوط توزيع الأرباح okay paying out
+
+22
+00:01:53,690 --> 00:01:57,570
+paying out paying out اللي هي بيسموها الـ dividends
+
+23
+00:01:57,570 --> 00:01:59,790
+التوزيعات
+
+24
+00:02:01,500 --> 00:02:06,620
+Paying out or dividends هذا حدث بنشوف what is the
+
+25
+00:02:06,620 --> 00:02:10,140
+impact of dividends on the stock price performance
+
+26
+00:02:10,140 --> 00:02:12,480
+بنشوف أثر الـ dividends على الـ stock price
+
+27
+00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:17,800
+performance طيب ايش في event غير هيك ما سمعتوه
+
+28
+00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:24,980
+بتسمعوش أخبار مثلاً مثلاً new invention or new
+
+29
+00:02:24,980 --> 00:02:29,960
+copyright مثلاً new production line خطوط إنتاج
+
+30
+00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:31,240
+جديدة new production line
+
+31
+00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:40,180
+or release new products or launch new products
+
+32
+00:02:40,180 --> 00:02:46,520
+يعني زي مثلاً launch new products for instance when
+
+33
+00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:51,580
+apple launch iphone 4 or iphone 5 so what is the
+
+34
+00:02:51,580 --> 00:02:55,080
+impact of iphone 5 on the stock price performance
+
+35
+00:02:56,090 --> 00:02:59,190
+تمام؟ ايش فيه كمان events؟ ممكن تقول .. company
+
+36
+00:02:59,190 --> 00:03:03,030
+share اسمه company .. okay this is like merging
+
+37
+00:03:03,030 --> 00:03:07,590
+okay or taking over يعني يصير في merging between
+
+38
+00:03:07,590 --> 00:03:11,250
+.. or taking over this is .. this is also event
+
+39
+00:03:11,250 --> 00:03:20,310
+okay emerge and take over take over يعني معناه
+
+40
+00:03:20,310 --> 00:03:24,540
+سيطرة يعني يا أما damage يا أما سيطرة what else؟
+
+41
+00:03:24,540 --> 00:03:35,860
+يلا فاكرولي event event studies okay مستمر okay
+
+42
+00:03:35,860 --> 00:03:41,820
+so investing in new .. a new section or a new
+
+43
+00:03:41,820 --> 00:03:46,200
+product production line or a new areas or a new
+
+44
+00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,380
+geographic areas for instance investing in Ghana
+
+45
+00:03:49,380 --> 00:03:55,930
+in South Africa okay event studies may be scandals
+
+46
+00:03:55,930 --> 00:04:00,970
+بعد الفضايح بتصير في تاريخ الشركات for instance
+
+47
+00:04:00,970 --> 00:04:05,090
+Enron a scandal زي الـ leak اللي صار مع الـ بي بي
+
+48
+00:04:05,090 --> 00:04:11,110
+the leak of petrol from the BB British Petroleum
+
+49
+00:04:11,110 --> 00:04:18,990
+سمعتوا عن الفضيحة قبل سنتين أظن تسربوا بالنفط تسرب
+
+50
+00:04:18,990 --> 00:04:24,390
+النفط في أحد تجمعات النفط في أظن المحيط الأطلسي
+
+51
+00:04:24,390 --> 00:04:30,890
+و خسرت الشركة billions of dollar مليارات الدولارات
+
+52
+00:04:30,890 --> 00:04:35,090
+حتى يسيطروا على بقعة النفط فهذا is event هذا
+
+53
+00:04:35,090 --> 00:04:40,370
+event حدث في تاريخ الشركة طيب okay هلا الـ event
+
+54
+00:04:40,370 --> 00:04:44,540
+studies release new information يعني مثلاً خلينا
+
+55
+00:04:44,540 --> 00:04:48,100
+نحكي dividends, paying out dividends when
+
+56
+00:04:48,100 --> 00:04:51,660
+companies decide to paying out, paying out it is
+
+57
+00:04:51,660 --> 00:04:55,740
+releasing new information يعني هي تطلع معلومات
+
+58
+00:04:55,740 --> 00:04:59,540
+جديدة so how the financial market digest this
+
+59
+00:04:59,540 --> 00:05:01,380
+information or how the financial market
+
+60
+00:05:01,380 --> 00:05:04,260
+incorporates this new information into the price
+
+61
+00:05:04,260 --> 00:05:06,880
+because this is .. this is .. this is a new
+
+62
+00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:10,390
+information paying out dividends هذا يعني كيف
+
+63
+00:05:10,390 --> 00:05:15,190
+يتشارك السعر مع المعلومات إذا كان السعر يتشارك هذه
+
+64
+00:05:15,190 --> 00:05:22,610
+المعلومات بسرعة و بسهولة أو خلال وقت محدد، فهذا
+
+65
+00:05:22,610 --> 00:05:27,570
+يعني أن هذا مجتمع مفيد أو هذا المجتمع المفيد دعونا
+
+66
+00:05:27,570 --> 00:05:33,930
+نعتبر هذه الحالة إذا 
+
+67
+00:05:33,930 --> 00:05:43,300
+كان لدينا معلومات جديدة look at this chart here if
+
+68
+00:05:43,300 --> 00:05:46,080
+we have a new information and this information
+
+69
+00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:51,240
+will be released in day zero day zero it means the
+
+70
+00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,500
+day of the information or the day of the new
+
+71
+00:05:54,500 --> 00:06:02,820
+information okay this is a new information this
+
+72
+00:06:02,820 --> 00:06:07,810
+new information is due in day zero في يوم so to
+
+73
+00:06:07,810 --> 00:06:11,950
+observe the changes or how the price reflect this
+
+74
+00:06:11,950 --> 00:06:15,890
+new information we have to observe the stock price
+
+75
+00:06:15,890 --> 00:06:21,990
+before and the stock price after عشان احنا نعرف
+
+76
+00:06:21,990 --> 00:06:25,830
+انه هل الـ new information أثرت على الـ stock price
+
+77
+00:06:25,830 --> 00:06:29,570
+performance أو أثرت على الـ rate of return أو أثرت
+
+78
+00:06:29,570 --> 00:06:36,870
+على الـ R rate of return لازم ناخد قبل ما صار الحدث
+
+79
+00:06:36,870 --> 00:06:42,470
+و بعد ما صار الحدث okay so we can take
+
+80
+00:06:42,470 --> 00:06:49,930
+observations pre the event and
+
+81
+00:06:49,930 --> 00:06:56,610
+post the event then we estimate R the rate of
+
+82
+00:06:56,610 --> 00:07:05,450
+return we estimate R at pre and R at post إذا R في
+
+83
+00:07:05,450 --> 00:07:10,570
+الوصف أكبر من R في الأمام، فهذا يعني أن هناك تأثير
+
+84
+00:07:10,570 --> 00:07:15,530
+على المعلومات الجديدة على الـ Return. لذلك، هنا
+
+85
+00:07:15,530 --> 00:07:21,310
+نخلق Return غير عادل، لأن R في الوصف أكبر من R في
+
+86
+00:07:21,310 --> 00:07:26,850
+الأمام، وهو ما يخلق Return غير عادل. إذا كان لدينا
+
+87
+00:07:26,850 --> 00:07:31,610
+Return غير عادل، فهو Positive، لأن R post أكبر من
+
+88
+00:07:31,610 --> 00:07:35,460
+R pre، So if we have positive abnormal return it
+
+89
+00:07:35,460 --> 00:07:39,680
+means the new information released to the market
+
+90
+00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:44,240
+has a positive impact on the rate of return يعني
+
+91
+00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:51,540
+إذا شفنا احنا العائد بعد الحدث أعلى من العائد قبل
+
+92
+00:07:51,540 --> 00:07:55,680
+الحدث ما كان فيه abnormal return عائد غير طبيعي طب
+
+93
+00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,260
+العائد الغير طبيعي ليش صار because of the new
+
+94
+00:07:58,260 --> 00:08:01,140
+information لأن الـ new information هي اللي عملت الـ
+
+95
+00:08:01,140 --> 00:08:04,280
+abnormal rate of return يعني هذه الـ new
+
+96
+00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:11,800
+information make the abnormal rate of return okay
+
+97
+00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:20,230
+if R at pre if R at pre equal R at post so there
+
+98
+00:08:20,230 --> 00:08:23,070
+is no impact of the events on the abnormality of
+
+99
+00:08:23,070 --> 00:08:27,510
+return إذا كانت الـ R at pre زي الـ R at post
+
+100
+00:08:27,510 --> 00:08:34,990
+مافيش دور للمعلومات if the opposite if R at post
+
+101
+00:08:36,900 --> 00:08:41,400
+أو إذا R at pre أكبر من R at post، يعني أن
+
+102
+00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,920
+المعلومات لديها تأثير إيقافي أو إيقافي إيقافي
+
+103
+00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:48,480
+إيقافي، لديها تأثير إيقافي على تجارب الأسعار،
+
+104
+00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:49,800
+تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب
+
+105
+00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:49,900
+الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب
+
+106
+00:08:49,900 --> 00:08:50,360
+الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب
+
+107
+00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:53,060
+الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب
+
+108
+00:08:53,060 --> 00:08:58,640
+الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، 
+
+109
+00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:02,220
+تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسع
+
+110
+00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,060
+التأثير على مواجهة مواجهة مختلفة على تأثير السعر
+
+111
+00:09:07,060 --> 00:09:13,200
+السوقي إذا كانت السعر السوقي تفتح هذه المعلومة يجب
+
+112
+00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:19,960
+أن نلاحظ نتائج عادية أو عادية عادية إذا لم نلاحظ
+
+113
+00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,840
+هذا يعني أنه لا يوجد تأثير على المعلومات الجديدة
+
+114
+00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:27,870
+على السعر السوقي يعني إذا احنا ما شفناش في دور
+
+115
+00:09:27,870 --> 00:09:30,590
+المعلومات ما بتدخلش في الـ .. في الـ .. في الـ stock
+
+116
+00:09:30,590 --> 00:09:34,890
+price معناه كده مش هيكون في عندي abnormal return
+
+117
+00:09:34,890 --> 00:09:39,530
+نعطيكم مثال for instance أنتم في الصف بتاخدوا
+
+118
+00:09:39,530 --> 00:09:44,210
+investment روحنا نعمل عليكم امتحان روحنا بدنا
+
+119
+00:09:44,210 --> 00:09:48,010
+نعطيكم training course نعطيكم ايش training course
+
+120
+00:09:48,010 --> 00:09:53,010
+this class will take a training course نعطيكم 
+
+121
+00:09:53,010 --> 00:09:57,610
+training course دورة تدريبية في الـ investment okay
+
+122
+00:09:57,610 --> 00:10:01,850
+هلا بنشوف to evaluate whether this training course
+
+123
+00:10:01,850 --> 00:10:05,970
+is benefits or not يعني بنشوف هل هذا الـ training
+
+124
+00:10:05,970 --> 00:10:10,790
+course مفيدة ولا لأ بنعمل لكم exam pre the training
+
+125
+00:10:10,790 --> 00:10:13,550
+بنيجيكم تعالوا يا بنات خدوا هالامتحان قبل ما 
+
+126
+00:10:13,550 --> 00:10:16,270
+انتم تروحوا على الـ course ابتدئوا معانا يا بنات
+
+127
+00:10:16,270 --> 00:10:21,020
+بنعطيكم exam تفضلوا هاي الـ exam اعملوا الـ exams 
+
+128
+00:10:21,020 --> 00:10:25,720
+and we record the results و بنسجل ايش؟ الـ results
+
+129
+00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:30,080
+هذا بيسميها a pre the training for instance the
+
+130
+00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:35,060
+results seventy percent قبل الامتحان قبل الـ
+
+131
+00:10:35,060 --> 00:10:39,620
+training فاللي روحنا أخذناكم أخذنا المجموعة هذه و
+
+132
+00:10:39,620 --> 00:10:43,300
+روحنا و دلناها training course okay بعد ما عملنا
+
+133
+00:10:43,300 --> 00:10:47,240
+training course we repeat the exam نعطيكم امتحان 
+
+134
+00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:53,290
+آخر and we compare the past and the pre فإذا كان الـ
+
+135
+00:10:53,290 --> 00:10:57,850
+past for instance eighty percent بنحكي yes there
+
+136
+00:10:57,850 --> 00:11:02,270
+is impact of the training on the student
+
+137
+00:11:02,270 --> 00:11:07,110
+performance if there is no change seventy seventy
+
+138
+00:11:07,110 --> 00:11:10,970
+or seventy seventy one Okay it means there is no
+
+139
+00:11:10,970 --> 00:11:14,510
+impact of the training so the training is a waste
+
+140
+00:11:14,510 --> 00:11:18,930
+of time يعني الـ training هو تضيع وقت okay some
+
+141
+00:11:18,930 --> 00:11:22,070
+other people they said okay this is one approach
+
+142
+00:11:22,070 --> 00:11:25,590
+هذا approach ممكن احنا نحله نشوف الـ post و نشوف الـ
+
+143
+00:11:25,590 --> 00:11:28,890
+pre to calculate the abnormal rate of return
+
+144
+00:11:28,890 --> 00:11:34,610
+some people argue to use a proxy or a benchmark بعض
+
+145
+00:11:34,610 --> 00:11:38,390
+الناس بيقولوا لأ خلينا نجرب نعمل proxy or benchmark،
+
+146
+00:11:38,390 --> 00:11:42,070
+ايش يعني proxy؟ نرجع لمثالنا بالـ students، حكينا
+
+147
+00:11:42,070 --> 00:11:45,530
+أن هدول البنات نعملهم training course and these
+
+148
+00:11:45,530 --> 00:11:50,230
+students they don't take any training course in
+
+149
+00:11:50,230 --> 00:11:54,320
+investment so there is absence of training course
+
+150
+00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,560
+here absence مافيش في training course the training
+
+151
+00:11:57,560 --> 00:12:00,300
+courses are attending here يعني احنا هدول البنات
+
+152
+00:12:00,300 --> 00:12:03,160
+اعطاناهم training course و هدول ما اعطاناهمش and we
+
+153
+00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:07,800
+give exam for both نعطي امتحان للاثنين if the people
+
+154
+00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:09,840
+who take the exam
+
+155
+00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,920
+record a good result or higher result than these
+
+156
+00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:20,060
+people it means the training course works يعني
+
+157
+00:12:20,060 --> 00:12:25,160
+خلينا نشوف انه بنقارن الـ group الـ class الـ class
+
+158
+00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:29,460
+مع benchmark عارفين ايش معناه benchmark؟ benchmark
+
+159
+00:12:29,460 --> 00:12:34,260
+يعني ناس زيهم بالظبط لكن ما أخذوش training course
+
+160
+00:12:34,260 --> 00:12:40,200
+فإذا كان هدول بتاعون الـ class اللي عملوا test الـ
+
+161
+00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,820
+training course seventy percent و بتوع الـ benchmark
+
+162
+00:12:42,820 --> 00:12:48,460
+70% جابوا في الاختبار so it is the same طبعا مافيش
+
+163
+00:12:48,460 --> 00:12:51,580
+مشكلة عامة يعني there is no impact of training
+
+164
+00:12:51,580 --> 00:12:56,740
+course لكن إذا وجدنا بتوع الـ class جابوا 80% و الـ
+
+165
+00:12:56,740 --> 00:13:01,680
+benchmark 70% it means the training course is work
+
+166
+00:13:01,680 --> 00:13:07,090
+or is working طبعا يعني هاي طريقة تانية بن .. بن ..
+
+167
+00:13:07,090 --> 00:13:10,090
+بن .. بنشوف فيها الـ abnormal later over time
+
+168
+00:13:10,090 --> 00:13:14,630
+another method we can compare the .. this class
+
+169
+00:13:14,630 --> 00:13:17,670
+with other classes with .. with the university هذا
+
+170
+00:13:17,670 --> 00:13:20,950
+بيسميها مع ال .. مع الـ market كله بتشوف هدول الناس
+
+171
+00:13:20,950 --> 00:13:24,350
+مع الـ market بتشوف how they make the difference
+
+172
+00:13:24,350 --> 00:13:28,650
+okay so this is the idea of the event studies هذه
+
+173
+00:13:28,650 --> 00:13:32,380
+فكرة الـ event studies البحث الانبعاثي الانبعاثي
+
+174
+00:13:32,380 --> 00:13:36,620
+يسمح لنا باستخدام تأثير مواصلة حدث و انا اشرح ماذا
+
+175
+00:13:36,620 --> 00:13:41,660
+يعني حدث مواصلة حدث على قيمة شركة FM نشوف حدث معين
+
+176
+00:13:41,660 --> 00:13:45,780
+سكاندل صارت في تاريخ الشركة وشو أثرت على قيمة
+
+177
+00:13:45,780 --> 00:13:49,440
+الشركة نشوف مثلا إذا كان الشركة عندها ديفيدنس وشو
+
+178
+00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:54,200
+الـ impact على قيمة الشركة الانبعاثي الانبعاثي التي
+
+179
+00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:58,950
+أشرحها The abnormal rate of return due to the event
+
+180
+00:13:58,950 --> 00:14:01,510
+is the difference between the stock's actual
+
+181
+00:14:01,510 --> 00:14:05,010
+return and a proxy for the stock's return in the
+
+182
+00:14:05,010 --> 00:14:09,030
+absence of the event يعني هو الفرق بين الـ return
+
+183
+00:14:09,030 --> 00:14:14,090
+تبع السهم في
+
+184
+00:14:14,090 --> 00:14:18,810
+حالة الـ event و return تبع السهم في حالة عدم وجود
+
+185
+00:14:18,810 --> 00:14:24,640
+الـ event مقارن بيناتهم او هو return تبع سهم معين
+
+186
+00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,820
+مقارن مع سهم آخر مافيش فيه event يعني يا اما
+
+187
+00:14:27,820 --> 00:14:33,440
+نقيصه هيك يا هيك كيف ندرس الـ event الـ event ممكن
+
+188
+00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:38,760
+احنا نقارن الـ pre مع الـ post الـ
+
+189
+00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:46,160
+pre بيكون في absence of the event هنا في attending
+
+190
+00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:50,980
+للـ event ممكن احنا نقارن ال .. ال .. ال .. الـ stock
+
+191
+00:14:50,980 --> 00:14:55,500
+with a benchmark و شرحنا ايش الـ benchmark okay
+
+192
+00:14:55,500 --> 00:14:59,000
+يعني زي الـ control group اللي بنعمل انه شركة فيه
+
+193
+00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:03,540
+صار فيها event و شركة ما صار فيها event Okay يعني
+
+194
+00:15:03,540 --> 00:15:06,600
+شركة وزعت أرباح وشركة ما وزعتش أرباح الشركة صار
+
+195
+00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:08,760
+فيها scandal وشركة ما صار فيها scandal scandal
+
+196
+00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:12,780
+يعني فضيحة الشركة صار فيها leaking للـ petrol وشركة
+
+197
+00:15:12,780 --> 00:15:15,780
+ما صار فيها leaking للـ petrol عشان تشوف the impact
+
+198
+00:15:15,780 --> 00:15:19,560
+of the stock price on both companies ممكن اللي
+
+199
+00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,700
+يصير أننا فيه ليش احنا بنعمل control group لأن
+
+200
+00:15:22,700 --> 00:15:26,000
+ممكن other factors تخلي الشركتان يزيدوا الـ
+
+201
+00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,350
+performance بتاعتهم فمنها احنا لما نحيد الـ other
+
+202
+00:15:29,350 --> 00:15:32,710
+factors تصير عندي بس انه اختار شركة صار فيها event
+
+203
+00:15:32,710 --> 00:15:36,950
+و شركة ما صار فيها event ممكن اختار الـ stock نفسه
+
+204
+00:15:36,950 --> 00:15:42,410
+مع الـ markets زي ما حكينا الـ class مع الجامعة
+
+205
+00:15:42,410 --> 00:15:48,230
+كلها و نشوف to compare the performance most
+
+206
+00:15:48,230 --> 00:15:53,510
+of studies on the event studies focus on the
+
+207
+00:15:53,510 --> 00:15:56,290
+market model comparing the stock performance with
+
+208
+00:15:56,290 --> 00:16:00,690
+the market يعني أغلب الدراسات ركزت على الـ stock
+
+209
+00:16:00,690 --> 00:16:04,230
+performance و الـ market okay how we examine this
+
+210
+00:16:04,230 --> 00:16:09,010
+how test our structures how we examine the event
+
+211
+00:16:09,010 --> 00:16:12,250
+studies returns are adjusted to determine if they
+
+212
+00:16:12,250 --> 00:16:17,990
+are abnormal يعني احنا بنحاول نعمل adjusting تعديل
+
+213
+00:16:17,990 --> 00:16:22,330
+للـ return حتى انه احنا نشوف is abnormal ولا مش
+
+214
+00:16:22,330 --> 00:16:27,550
+abnormal نيجي نشرح الـ market abnormal return
+
+215
+00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:38,580
+R is the return of stock at T-time يعني هو عائد
+
+216
+00:16:38,580 --> 00:16:44,480
+السهم عند نقطة معينة من الزمن R at T-time is equal
+
+217
+00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:48,700
+alpha and I will explain what it means alpha plus
+
+218
+00:16:48,700 --> 00:16:59,630
+theta RMT plus epsilon at T-time look at here هذه
+
+219
+00:16:59,630 --> 00:17:04,790
+هي security market line اعتقد انك تتذكر هذا لذلك
+
+220
+00:17:04,790 --> 00:17:13,810
+إعادة اي شركة إعادة هذه الشركة على سبيل المثال هي
+
+221
+00:17:13,810 --> 00:17:22,030
+تعتبر هذه إعادة Alpha يعني إعادة Alpha زائد
+
+222
+00:17:22,030 --> 00:17:27,450
+هذه النقطة لذلك إعادة شركة واحدة على سبيل المثال
+
+223
+00:17:27,450 --> 00:17:33,300
+شركة A يعني العائد لـ stock A هيساوي .. شايفين
+
+224
+00:17:33,300 --> 00:17:40,800
+الحتة هذه .. هي Alpha A plus this .. so this is
+
+225
+00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:49,560
+Alpha and this one is this .. because this is like
+
+226
+00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:55,310
+slope So we cannot easily measure this, we have to
+
+227
+00:17:55,310 --> 00:17:59,690
+measure the slope of this, I think in mathematical
+
+228
+00:17:59,690 --> 00:18:02,950
+we have to use some mathematical solutions to do
+
+229
+00:18:02,950 --> 00:18:08,690
+this, so to calculate this it means to calculate
+
+230
+00:18:08,690 --> 00:18:09,250
+tan theta
+
+231
+00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,560
+at the end of the day you don't need to spoil your
+
+232
+00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,640
+mind on understanding these things this is the
+
+233
+00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:23,500
+equation beta is the slope of this line with
+
+234
+00:18:23,500 --> 00:18:27,420
+regard to this line يعني ميل الخط المستقيم هذا
+
+235
+00:18:27,420 --> 00:18:34,680
+الخط على محور اللي هو السينات okay بس الـ M T
+
+236
+00:18:38,790 --> 00:18:44,270
+هي الـ market return بالعربي this is what you want
+
+237
+00:18:44,270 --> 00:18:52,090
+العائد لأي سهم بيساوي Alpha جزء المخطوعة هذا معروف
+
+238
+00:18:52,090 --> 00:18:55,350
+ماعندنا مشكلة اللي هو systematic risk مخاطر نظامية
+
+239
+00:18:55,350 --> 00:18:59,950
+زائد sensitivity beta هي sensitivity sensitivity
+
+240
+00:18:59,950 --> 00:19:08,800
+معناها ايش حساسية السهم لتغيرات السوق حساسية السهم
+
+241
+00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:14,980
+beta هذه حساسية السهم لتغيرات في عائد السوق بس الـ
+
+242
+00:19:14,980 --> 00:19:20,580
+epsilon هذه نسبة الخطأ الـ abnormal return هذه نسبة
+
+243
+00:19:20,580 --> 00:19:25,960
+الخطأ هتشوفها قبل chart ايش بتساوي طلعوا بس ركزوا
+
+244
+00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:31,180
+معايا شوية ركزوا معايا لأن هذا شيء لازم تفهموا
+
+245
+00:19:31,180 --> 00:19:35,310
+عشان تفهموا الـ epsilon هذه عشان تفهموا ايش الـ
+
+246
+00:19:35,310 --> 00:19:38,030
+epsilon لإنه most of the researchers they
+
+247
+00:19:38,030 --> 00:19:42,530
+particularly in the in the current studies in the
+
+248
+00:19:42,530 --> 00:19:44,750
+low quality studies you know what means low
+
+249
+00:19:44,750 --> 00:19:49,930
+quality studies دراسات
+
+250
+00:19:49,930 --> 00:19:55,490
+ضعيفة they ignore epsilon and this is a very
+
+251
+00:19:55,490 --> 00:19:58,930
+important to consider epsilon what it means
+
+252
+00:19:58,930 --> 00:20:05,970
+epsilon شوفوا كيف شايفين الخط هذا؟ هذا in the real
+
+253
+00:20:05,970 --> 00:20:08,570
+world في العالم الحقيقي there is no straight line
+
+254
+00:20:08,570 --> 00:20:13,930
+okay the straight line is this is expected this is
+
+255
+00:20:13,930 --> 00:20:19,860
+expected this is what should be the prices or what
+
+256
+00:20:19,860 --> 00:20:23,320
+should be the security market lines and this is
+
+257
+00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:28,700
+the optimal things هذا هو المتوقع but the actual is
+
+258
+00:20:28,700 --> 00:20:35,360
+going like this ال actual هو like this yes is
+
+259
+00:20:35,360 --> 00:20:38,820
+moving around the expected
+
+260
+00:20:41,530 --> 00:20:45,090
+and you know this you know that this is deviation
+
+261
+00:20:45,090 --> 00:20:53,350
+or this is like error which is epsilon okay which
+
+262
+00:20:53,350 --> 00:20:58,690
+is epsilon if epsilon look again look back to the
+
+263
+00:20:58,690 --> 00:21:02,650
+chart again and look carefully تطلعوا على ال chart
+
+264
+00:21:02,650 --> 00:21:06,770
+كمان مرة و بحذر تطلعوا if you look at this chart
+
+265
+00:21:06,770 --> 00:21:12,990
+carefully and see what you observe on this إيش
+
+266
+00:21:12,990 --> 00:21:16,930
+بتلاحظوا بال charts؟ okay this is around what they
+
+267
+00:21:16,930 --> 00:21:20,950
+expected one more observation if you just
+
+268
+00:21:20,950 --> 00:21:26,510
+scrutinize if you in depth look at the .. وين
+
+269
+00:21:26,510 --> 00:21:30,190
+بتشوفوا بتشوفوا ال return أعلى ال deviation أعلى
+
+270
+00:21:30,190 --> 00:21:34,110
+ولا أقل؟ أقل شوفوها ال deviation فهذا بيصير
+
+271
+00:21:34,110 --> 00:21:37,970
+positive abnormal return شايفين positive يعني ال
+
+272
+00:21:37,970 --> 00:21:40,790
+deviation أعلى من الخط أعلى من ال deviation اللي
+
+273
+00:21:40,790 --> 00:21:45,850
+تحت so this is positive abnormal return okay so
+
+274
+00:21:45,850 --> 00:21:49,370
+let's go back to this equation we didn't finish
+
+275
+00:21:49,370 --> 00:21:53,610
+yet so
+
+276
+00:21:53,610 --> 00:21:59,170
+what is et which is the abnormal rate of return
+
+277
+00:22:00,230 --> 00:22:06,030
+which is equal to the actual rate of return minus
+
+278
+00:22:06,030 --> 00:22:11,230
+the expected rate of return abnormal rate of
+
+279
+00:22:11,230 --> 00:22:14,970
+return is equal to the actual rate of return minus
+
+280
+00:22:14,970 --> 00:22:19,150
+the expected rate of return so epsilon is the
+
+281
+00:22:19,150 --> 00:22:22,210
+abnormal rate of return which is equal to the
+
+282
+00:22:22,210 --> 00:22:27,430
+actual minus the expected rate of return look at
+
+283
+00:22:27,430 --> 00:22:30,570
+this chart again just to remind you and to
+
+284
+00:22:30,570 --> 00:22:34,330
+flashing back your mind يعني دائماً أنا بحب أذكركم
+
+285
+00:22:34,330 --> 00:22:44,730
+بال charts if you look at this here so
+
+286
+00:22:44,730 --> 00:22:51,750
+this blue line is the expected okay and this is
+
+287
+00:22:51,750 --> 00:22:55,250
+the the black one is the actual
+
+288
+00:22:58,950 --> 00:23:04,310
+So the AT which is the abnormal rate of return is
+
+289
+00:23:04,310 --> 00:23:09,410
+the actual minus the expected if actual is equal
+
+290
+00:23:09,410 --> 00:23:13,450
+to expected it means there is no abnormal return
+
+291
+00:23:13,450 --> 00:23:19,930
+إذا if you observe like this and you see the
+
+292
+00:23:19,930 --> 00:23:30,990
+actual is you see is like close to the .. so it
+
+293
+00:23:30,990 --> 00:23:34,410
+means this is insignificant insignificant change
+
+294
+00:23:34,410 --> 00:23:42,290
+it means هي the actual equal the expected so
+
+295
+00:23:42,290 --> 00:23:50,930
+our mission is to estimate the E وهي كمية الواقع
+
+296
+00:23:50,930 --> 00:23:54,610
+الذي يتجاوز من الواقع المتوقع وهو الـ Abnormal
+
+297
+00:23:54,610 --> 00:23:57,630
+Rate of Return لذلك Abnormal Rate of Return مرة
+
+298
+00:23:57,630 --> 00:24:01,210
+أخرى فقط لتحريك المقارنة كما قلت هذا هو الواقع
+
+299
+00:24:01,210 --> 00:24:05,130
+وهذا 
+
+300
+00:24:05,130 --> 00:24:10,970
+هو الواقع المتوقع وهو مرة أخرى الواقع المتوقع هو
+
+301
+00:24:10,970 --> 00:24:11,150
+هذا
+
+302
+00:24:34,190 --> 00:24:39,090
+فهمتوا هالمعادلة؟ very simple طيب هلا افتح صفحة
+
+303
+00:24:39,090 --> 00:24:47,060
+354 شوف صفحة 354 في عندكم مثال suppose that the
+
+304
+00:24:47,060 --> 00:24:50,620
+analyst has estimated Alpha انتبهوا يا بنات
+
+305
+00:24:50,620 --> 00:24:56,000
+افترضوا ان ال analyst estimated Alpha اتوقعوا
+
+306
+00:24:56,000 --> 00:25:03,360
+Alpha and you know what it means Alpha Alpha is 0
+
+307
+00:25:03,360 --> 00:25:10,060
+.05% طب عارفين where is Alpha هاي Alpha okay and
+
+308
+00:25:10,060 --> 00:25:15,920
+beta point eight إيش معناه beta point eight؟ في حد
+
+309
+00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,980
+بيعرفه تتميز beta؟ هاذي ال slope بتاع هذا بيسميه
+
+310
+00:25:19,980 --> 00:25:22,440
+beta أو beta
+
+311
+00:25:25,890 --> 00:25:29,450
+إذا ال market تبقى إيش معناه what it means ألف
+
+312
+00:25:29,450 --> 00:25:34,190
+بيتا بيتا it means هي ال slope تبع هذا slope طبعاً
+
+313
+00:25:34,190 --> 00:25:37,650
+ماعرفش أنتوا بال .. أخدتوا mathematic تمليح ولا لأ
+
+314
+00:25:37,650 --> 00:25:41,350
+المال اللي هو slope إيش معناه ال .. ال .. ال beta
+
+315
+00:25:41,350 --> 00:25:46,390
+slope يعني إذا تغير ال market واحدة واحدة فالسوق
+
+316
+00:25:46,390 --> 00:25:51,610
+هيتغير point eight عفواً ال return يعني إذا طلع
+
+317
+00:25:51,610 --> 00:25:56,050
+عشرة في المية السوق السهم بيطلع تمانية في المية
+
+318
+00:25:56,050 --> 00:26:00,790
+وإذا نزل عشرة في المية السهم بنزل تمانية في المية
+
+319
+00:26:00,790 --> 00:26:06,290
+okay that's it طيب so this is beta كام beta كانت
+
+320
+00:26:06,290 --> 00:26:15,670
+point eight on a day that the markets go up on
+
+321
+00:26:15,670 --> 00:26:20,090
+the day of the market goes up by one percent you
+
+322
+00:26:20,090 --> 00:26:22,590
+would predict from the equation إذا السوق إطلع
+
+323
+00:26:22,590 --> 00:26:26,710
+واحد في المية okay that the stock should rise by
+
+324
+00:26:26,710 --> 00:26:29,810
+the expected value of خليني أقول السوق جديد صار
+
+325
+00:26:29,810 --> 00:26:34,130
+طبق المعادلة يا بناتي بدنا نحسب ال R normal مرتين
+
+326
+00:26:34,130 --> 00:26:40,830
+إيش عندنا احنا؟ في عندنا الف كام؟ خمسة في المين
+
+327
+00:26:40,830 --> 00:26:50,590
+زائد بيتا كام؟ point eight و ال RMT كام؟ point
+
+328
+00:26:50,590 --> 00:27:03,910
+واحد صح؟ طيب 0.0% 1% احسبوها شوفوا كده تطلع بطلع
+
+329
+00:27:03,910 --> 00:27:10,370
+الجوا بال RT كام 8.5% طيب عشان نحسب ال up normal
+
+330
+00:27:10,370 --> 00:27:16,350
+ثاني لو السوق بدل ما هو 1% طلع 2% مش هنسوي هنعيد
+
+331
+00:27:16,350 --> 00:27:28,220
+نفس الخطوة 5% زي 0.8 ضرب 0.02 بطلع كام؟ بطلع ..
+
+332
+00:27:28,220 --> 00:27:33,260
+شوفوا كام بطلع عنكم طبعاً
+
+333
+00:27:33,260 --> 00:27:36,900
+ال abnormal الثاني هو الفرق بيناتهم هذا المثال
+
+334
+00:27:36,900 --> 00:27:49,260
+okay المثال هذا موجود في صفحة 354 استني
+
+335
+00:27:49,260 --> 00:27:49,640
+شوية
+
+336
+00:27:53,020 --> 00:28:00,520
+انتوا هذا واضح عندكم صح هذا
+
+337
+00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:07,240
+خلينا هذا خمسة في المية له ال alpha plus point
+
+338
+00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,720
+eight beta اجمعيهم مع بعض كم بيطلع
+
+339
+00:28:19,730 --> 00:28:24,450
+لأ خلينا بس أنت حسبتيها لو خلصتيها منها حسبتيها طب
+
+340
+00:28:24,450 --> 00:28:28,110
+حسبيها كام تطلع اللي هو point eight five percent
+
+341
+00:28:28,110 --> 00:28:39,830
+طبعاً طب
+
+342
+00:28:39,830 --> 00:28:49,240
+إذا كان خلصنا عند اللحظة هذه طب إذا كان .. انتبهوا
+
+343
+00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:56,200
+كمان .. كمل هان إذا كان ال .. ال R .. ال RT بعد
+
+344
+00:28:56,200 --> 00:29:02,280
+ال event حسبناها .. بعد ال event طلعت 2% كم ال
+
+345
+00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:09,460
+abnormality ثاني؟ كم ال abnormality ثاني؟ طب احنا
+
+346
+00:29:09,460 --> 00:29:12,100
+طلعت هنا point eight five percent
+
+347
+00:29:14,830 --> 00:29:17,150
+يعني جابني ال event كانت point eight five percent
+
+348
+00:29:17,150 --> 00:29:26,670
+هذا ال expected أو اللي قبل لما بعد ال event اثنين
+
+349
+00:29:26,670 --> 00:29:30,390
+في المية حسبنا ال RT طلعت اثنين في المية هذا معطاه
+
+350
+00:29:30,390 --> 00:29:35,810
+أداش ال abnormal return قبل ال event اثنين في
+
+351
+00:29:35,810 --> 00:29:41,390
+المية معقص بيطلع point eight point two eight معقص
+
+352
+00:29:41,390 --> 00:29:41,810
+point
+
+353
+00:30:09,750 --> 00:30:20,330
+الـ RT ماعطيكوا يعني بعد ال event بتساوي 2% قبل ال
+
+354
+00:30:20,330 --> 00:30:25,470
+event حسبناها اللي هي 0.85% اللي هي هذه بحسب
+
+355
+00:30:25,470 --> 00:30:29,470
+المعادلة بتراجعوا
+
+356
+00:30:29,470 --> 00:30:40,830
+المثال في صفحة 354 خلينا
+
+357
+00:30:40,830 --> 00:30:50,360
+نركز احنا ال RT نتوقعها صح اللي هي ال expected
+
+358
+00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:54,480
+حكينا احنا إيش ال actual minus the expected ال
+
+359
+00:30:54,480 --> 00:31:01,360
+abnormal اللي هي E بتساوي ال actual minus the
+
+360
+00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:05,940
+expected طيب ال actual معروفة عندي أنا عارفها اللي
+
+361
+00:31:05,940 --> 00:31:12,360
+هو اثنين في المية معروفة بدي ال expected ال
+
+362
+00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:16,020
+expected لازم أحسبها فبدا أحسبها في عند ال alpha
+
+363
+00:31:16,020 --> 00:31:20,400
+خمسة في المية عند ال beta point eight و عند ال MT
+
+364
+00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:25,260
+ال RMT point one نضربهم في بعض market return
+
+365
+00:31:25,260 --> 00:31:29,780
+market return okay فحكيلي في السؤال market return
+
+366
+00:31:29,780 --> 00:31:35,660
+increase by one percent مظبوط فالعوضنا عوضناها
+
+367
+00:31:35,660 --> 00:31:39,200
+نعوضناها نطلع لنا إيش ال expected ال expected كام
+
+368
+00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:43,940
+point eight five percent نيجي ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص
+
+369
+00:31:43,940 --> 00:31:46,540
+ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص
+
+370
+00:31:46,540 --> 00:31:46,720
+ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص
+
+371
+00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:47,300
+ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص
+
+372
+00:31:47,300 --> 00:31:50,500
+ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص
+
+373
+00:31:50,500 --> 00:32:00,580
+ناقص ناقص ناقص ناق
+
+374
+00:32:01,390 --> 00:32:06,690
+إيش القانون اللي بيحكي ال RT the expected okay
+
+375
+00:32:06,690 --> 00:32:11,610
+minus the actual ال 
+
+376
+00:32:11,610 --> 00:32:17,190
+expected توقع بدلالة هدول اللي احنا طلعناها اللي 
+
+377
+00:32:17,190 --> 00:32:20,870
+هو Alpha زائد هذا و الـ ET ما احنا مش عارفينها okay
+
+378
+00:32:20,870 --> 00:32:26,070
+فاحنا هذه الـ ET جيبناها بدلالة RT minus يعني هذه
+
+379
+00:32:26,070 --> 00:32:30,490
+المعادلة هذا معروف و هذا معروف بس هذا مش معروف
+
+380
+00:32:33,980 --> 00:32:37,580
+طبعا فبنجيب و نجيب الـ AT و نجيب الدلالة هذه هذي ال
+
+381
+00:32:37,580 --> 00:32:43,380
+RT معطيك إياها و Alpha هذي معطيك إياها فبنجيب ال
+
+382
+00:32:43,380 --> 00:32:49,240
+AT هذي
+
+383
+00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:54,440
+هذي نفسها هذي .. هذي لازم أولا نطبق هذي و بعدها 
+
+384
+00:32:54,440 --> 00:33:00,120
+نطبق هذي عشان نجيب هذي طبعا بكفي هذي و ان شاء الله 
+
+385
+00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:00,920
+الدرجة هيكمل 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/g6Dw4Dppwrs_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/g6Dw4Dppwrs_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0fb1ab255a1d20afc3046af927f511658be8f142
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/g6Dw4Dppwrs_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1540 @@
+1
+00:00:20,940 --> 00:00:25,580
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم في ال .. في المحاضرات
+
+2
+00:00:25,580 --> 00:00:29,300
+السابقة كنا نحكي عن ال .. ال efficiency markets و
+
+3
+00:00:29,300 --> 00:00:35,320
+market efficiency event studies اللي هو دراسة ..
+
+4
+00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,500
+أحداث بتصير في .. في تاريخ المنشئات بيسموها event
+
+5
+00:00:38,500 --> 00:00:43,640
+studies to examine the .. whether the market is
+
+6
+00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:49,140
+efficient or notthe main focus on the event
+
+7
+00:00:49,140 --> 00:00:52,540
+studies عشان احنا نعرف انه هل السوق المالي
+
+8
+00:00:52,540 --> 00:00:56,100
+efficient ولا مش efficient or efficient or
+
+9
+00:00:56,100 --> 00:01:00,420
+inefficient most of the researchers using event
+
+10
+00:01:00,420 --> 00:01:05,560
+studies اغلب الباحثين بيعملوا .. براكزوا على event
+
+11
+00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:10,340
+studies okay what it means event studies ايش معناه
+
+12
+00:01:10,340 --> 00:01:14,540
+event studies what it means eventحدث اعطوني مثال
+
+13
+00:01:14,540 --> 00:01:17,500
+give me example about a particular event in a
+
+14
+00:01:17,500 --> 00:01:21,800
+company اعطوني حدث معين في شركة صار في شركة
+
+15
+00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:26,660
+مابدناش يكون في .. في .. في اقتصاد يعني a
+
+16
+00:01:26,660 --> 00:01:30,120
+particular event ايش فيه احداث في الشركات؟ اللي هو
+
+17
+00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,960
+اللي يجيه الشركة اللي بتاعتها okay خلي اشوف اكتر
+
+18
+00:01:34,960 --> 00:01:39,060
+دقة من ال event ده ايش فيه event فعلا ايش فيه
+
+19
+00:01:39,060 --> 00:01:40,940
+احداث بتسير في حياة الشركات؟
+
+20
+00:01:44,510 --> 00:01:48,570
+أه ربح و خسارة اللي هو paying dividends paying
+
+21
+00:01:48,570 --> 00:01:53,690
+dividends مظبوط توزيع الأرباح okay paying out
+
+22
+00:01:53,690 --> 00:01:57,570
+paying out paying out اللي هى بيسموها ال dividends
+
+23
+00:01:57,570 --> 00:01:59,790
+التوزيعات
+
+24
+00:02:01,500 --> 00:02:06,620
+Paying out or dividends هذا حدث بنشوف what is the
+
+25
+00:02:06,620 --> 00:02:10,140
+impact of dividends on the stock price performance
+
+26
+00:02:10,140 --> 00:02:12,480
+بنشوف أثر ال dividends على ال stock price
+
+27
+00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:17,800
+performance طيب إيش في event غير هيك ماسمعتوه
+
+28
+00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:24,980
+بتسمعوش أخبار مثلا مثلا new invention or new
+
+29
+00:02:24,980 --> 00:02:29,960
+copyright مثلا new production line خطوط إنتاج
+
+30
+00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:31,240
+جديدة new production line
+
+31
+00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:40,180
+or release new products or launch new products
+
+32
+00:02:40,180 --> 00:02:46,520
+يعني زي مثلا launch new products for instance when
+
+33
+00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:51,580
+apple launch iphone 4 or iphone 5 so what is the
+
+34
+00:02:51,580 --> 00:02:55,080
+impact of iphone 5 on the stock price performance
+
+35
+00:02:56,090 --> 00:02:59,190
+تمام؟ إيش فيه كمان events؟ ممكن تقول .. company
+
+36
+00:02:59,190 --> 00:03:03,030
+share اسمه company .. okay this is like merging
+
+37
+00:03:03,030 --> 00:03:07,590
+okay or taking over يعني يصير في merging between
+
+38
+00:03:07,590 --> 00:03:11,250
+.. or taking over this is .. this is also event
+
+39
+00:03:11,250 --> 00:03:20,310
+okay emerge and take over take over يعني معناه
+
+40
+00:03:20,310 --> 00:03:24,540
+سيطرةيعني يا أما damage يا أما سيطرة what else؟
+
+41
+00:03:24,540 --> 00:03:35,860
+يالا فاكرولي event event studies okay مستمر okay
+
+42
+00:03:35,860 --> 00:03:41,820
+so investing in new .. a new section or a new
+
+43
+00:03:41,820 --> 00:03:46,200
+product production line or a new areas or a new
+
+44
+00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,380
+geographic areas for instance investing in Ghana
+
+45
+00:03:49,380 --> 00:03:55,930
+in South Africa okayevent studies may be scandals
+
+46
+00:03:55,930 --> 00:04:00,970
+بعد الفضايح بتصير في تاريخ الشركات for instance
+
+47
+00:04:00,970 --> 00:04:05,090
+Enron a scandal زي ال leak اللي صار مع ال بي بي
+
+48
+00:04:05,090 --> 00:04:11,110
+the leak of petrol from the BB British Petroleum
+
+49
+00:04:11,110 --> 00:04:18,990
+سمعتوا عن الفضيحة قبل سنتين اظن تسربوا بالنفطتسرب
+
+50
+00:04:18,990 --> 00:04:24,390
+النفط في أحد تجمع النفط في أظن المحيط الأطلانتي
+
+51
+00:04:24,390 --> 00:04:30,890
+وخسرت الشركة billions of dollar مليارات الدولارات
+
+52
+00:04:30,890 --> 00:04:35,090
+حتى يسرطلوا على بُقعة النفط فهذا is event هذا
+
+53
+00:04:35,090 --> 00:04:40,370
+event حدث في تاريخ الشركة طيب okay هلا ال event
+
+54
+00:04:40,370 --> 00:04:44,540
+studies release new informationيعني مثلا خلينا
+
+55
+00:04:44,540 --> 00:04:48,100
+نحكي dividends, paying out dividends when
+
+56
+00:04:48,100 --> 00:04:51,660
+companies decide to paying out, paying out it is
+
+57
+00:04:51,660 --> 00:04:55,740
+releasing new information يعني هي تطلع معلومات
+
+58
+00:04:55,740 --> 00:04:59,540
+جديدة so how the financial market digest this
+
+59
+00:04:59,540 --> 00:05:01,380
+information or how the financial market
+
+60
+00:05:01,380 --> 00:05:04,260
+incorporates this new information into the price
+
+61
+00:05:04,260 --> 00:05:06,880
+because this is .. this is .. this is a new
+
+62
+00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:10,390
+information paying out dividendsهذا يعني كيف
+
+63
+00:05:10,390 --> 00:05:15,190
+يتشارك السعر مع المعلومات إذا كان السعر يتشارك هذه
+
+64
+00:05:15,190 --> 00:05:22,610
+المعلومات بسرعة و بسهولة أو خلال وقت محدد، فهذا
+
+65
+00:05:22,610 --> 00:05:27,570
+يعني أن هذا مجتمع مفيد أو هذا المجتمع المفيد دعونا
+
+66
+00:05:27,570 --> 00:05:33,930
+نعتبر هذا الحالة إذا
+
+67
+00:05:33,930 --> 00:05:43,300
+كان لدينا معلومات جديدةlook at this chart here if
+
+68
+00:05:43,300 --> 00:05:46,080
+we have a new information and this information
+
+69
+00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:51,240
+will be released in day zero day zero it means the
+
+70
+00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,500
+day of the information or the day of the new
+
+71
+00:05:54,500 --> 00:06:02,820
+information okay this is a new information this
+
+72
+00:06:02,820 --> 00:06:07,810
+new information is due in day zero في يومSo to
+
+73
+00:06:07,810 --> 00:06:11,950
+observe the changes or how the price reflect this
+
+74
+00:06:11,950 --> 00:06:15,890
+new information we have to observe the stock price
+
+75
+00:06:15,890 --> 00:06:21,990
+before and the stock price after عشان احنا نعرف
+
+76
+00:06:21,990 --> 00:06:25,830
+انه هل ال new information أثرت على ال stock price
+
+77
+00:06:25,830 --> 00:06:29,570
+performance او أثرت على ال rate of return او أثرت
+
+78
+00:06:29,570 --> 00:06:36,870
+على ال R rate of returnلازم ناخد قبل ما صار الحدث
+
+79
+00:06:36,870 --> 00:06:42,470
+و بعد ما صار الحدث okay so we can take
+
+80
+00:06:42,470 --> 00:06:49,930
+observations pre the event and
+
+81
+00:06:49,930 --> 00:06:56,610
+post the event then we estimate R the rate of
+
+82
+00:06:56,610 --> 00:07:05,450
+return we estimate R at pre and R at postإذا R في
+
+83
+00:07:05,450 --> 00:07:10,570
+الوصف أكبر من R في الأمام، فهذا يعني أن هناك تأثير
+
+84
+00:07:10,570 --> 00:07:15,530
+على المعلومات الجديدة على الـ Return. لذلك، هنا
+
+85
+00:07:15,530 --> 00:07:21,310
+نخلق Return غير عادل، لأن R في الوصف أكبر من R في
+
+86
+00:07:21,310 --> 00:07:26,850
+الأمام، وهو ما يخلق Return غير عادل. إذا كان لدينا
+
+87
+00:07:26,850 --> 00:07:31,610
+Return غير عادل، فهو Positive، لأن ر بوست أكبر من
+
+88
+00:07:31,610 --> 00:07:35,460
+ر بي،So if we have positive abnormal return it
+
+89
+00:07:35,460 --> 00:07:39,680
+means the new information released to the market
+
+90
+00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:44,240
+has a positive impact on the rate of return يعني
+
+91
+00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:51,540
+إذا شفنا إحنا العائدبعد الحدث أعلى من العائد قبل
+
+92
+00:07:51,540 --> 00:07:55,680
+الحدث ما كان فيه abnormal return عائد غير طبيعي طب
+
+93
+00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,260
+العائد الغير طبيعي ليش صار because of the new
+
+94
+00:07:58,260 --> 00:08:01,140
+information لأن ال new information هي اللي عملت ال
+
+95
+00:08:01,140 --> 00:08:04,280
+abnormal rate of return يعني هذه ال new
+
+96
+00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:11,800
+information make the abnormal rate of return okay
+
+97
+00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:20,230
+if R at pre if R at pre equalare at post so there
+
+98
+00:08:20,230 --> 00:08:23,070
+is no impact of the events on the abnormality of
+
+99
+00:08:23,070 --> 00:08:27,510
+return إذا كانت ال are at pre زي ال are at post
+
+100
+00:08:27,510 --> 00:08:34,990
+مافيش دور للمعلومات if the opposite if are at post
+
+101
+00:08:36,900 --> 00:08:41,400
+أو إذا R at pre أكبر من R at post، يعني أن
+
+102
+00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,920
+المعلومات لديها تأثير إيقافي أو إيقافي إيقافي
+
+103
+00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:48,480
+إيقافي، لديها تأثير إيقافي على تجارب الأسعار،
+
+104
+00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:49,800
+تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب
+
+105
+00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:49,900
+الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب
+
+106
+00:08:49,900 --> 00:08:50,360
+الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب
+
+107
+00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:53,060
+الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب
+
+108
+00:08:53,060 --> 00:08:58,640
+الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسعار،
+
+109
+00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:02,220
+تجارب الأسعار، تجارب الأسع
+
+110
+00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,060
+التأثير على مواجهة مواجهة مختلفة على تأثير السعر
+
+111
+00:09:07,060 --> 00:09:13,200
+السوقي إذا كانت السعر السوقي تفتح هذه المعلومة يجب
+
+112
+00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:19,960
+أن نلاحظ نتائج عادية أو عادية عادية إذا لم نلاحظ
+
+113
+00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,840
+هذا يعني أنه لا يوجد تأثير على المعلومات الجديدة
+
+114
+00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:27,870
+على السعر السوقييعني إذا احنا ماشوفناش في دور
+
+115
+00:09:27,870 --> 00:09:30,590
+المعلومات مابتدخلش في ال .. في ال .. في ال stock
+
+116
+00:09:30,590 --> 00:09:34,890
+price معناه كده مش هيكون في عندى abnormal return
+
+117
+00:09:34,890 --> 00:09:39,530
+نعطيكوا مثال for instance أنتوا الصفة بتاخدوا
+
+118
+00:09:39,530 --> 00:09:44,210
+investment روحنا نعمل عليكم امتحان روحنا بدنا
+
+119
+00:09:44,210 --> 00:09:48,010
+نعطيكم training course نعطيكم إيش training course
+
+120
+00:09:48,010 --> 00:09:53,010
+this class will take a training courseنعطيكم
+
+121
+00:09:53,010 --> 00:09:57,610
+training course دورة تدريبية في ال investment okay
+
+122
+00:09:57,610 --> 00:10:01,850
+هلأ بنشوف to evaluate whether this training course
+
+123
+00:10:01,850 --> 00:10:05,970
+is benefits or not يعني بنشوف هل هذا ال training
+
+124
+00:10:05,970 --> 00:10:10,790
+course مفيدة ولا لأ بنعملكوا exam pre the training
+
+125
+00:10:10,790 --> 00:10:13,550
+بنيجيكوا تعالوا يا بنات خدوا هالامتحان قبل ما
+
+126
+00:10:13,550 --> 00:10:16,270
+انتوا تروحوا على ال course ابتبوا معانا يا بناتها
+
+127
+00:10:16,270 --> 00:10:21,020
+بنعطيكوا examتفضلوا هاي ال exam تعملوا ال exams
+
+128
+00:10:21,020 --> 00:10:25,720
+and we record the results و بنسجل ايش؟ ال results
+
+129
+00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:30,080
+هذا بيسميها a pre the training for instance the
+
+130
+00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:35,060
+results seventy percent قبل الامتحان قبل ال
+
+131
+00:10:35,060 --> 00:10:39,620
+training فاللي روحنا أخدناكم أخدنا المجموعة هذه و
+
+132
+00:10:39,620 --> 00:10:43,300
+روحنا و دلناها training course okay بعد ما عملنا
+
+133
+00:10:43,300 --> 00:10:47,240
+training course we repeat the exam نعطيكم امتحان
+
+134
+00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:53,290
+آخرand we compare the past and the pre فإذا كان ال
+
+135
+00:10:53,290 --> 00:10:57,850
+past for instance eighty percent بنحكوا yes there
+
+136
+00:10:57,850 --> 00:11:02,270
+is impact of the training on the student
+
+137
+00:11:02,270 --> 00:11:07,110
+performance if there is no change seventy seventy
+
+138
+00:11:07,110 --> 00:11:10,970
+or seventy seventy oneOkay it means there is no
+
+139
+00:11:10,970 --> 00:11:14,510
+impact of the training so the training is a waste
+
+140
+00:11:14,510 --> 00:11:18,930
+of time يعني ال training هو تضيع وقت okay some
+
+141
+00:11:18,930 --> 00:11:22,070
+other people they said okay this is one approach
+
+142
+00:11:22,070 --> 00:11:25,590
+هذا approach ممكن احنا نحله نشوف ال post و نشوف ال
+
+143
+00:11:25,590 --> 00:11:28,890
+brief to calculate the abnormal rate of return
+
+144
+00:11:28,890 --> 00:11:34,610
+some people argue to use a proxy or a benchmarkبعض
+
+145
+00:11:34,610 --> 00:11:38,390
+الناس بيقول لأ خلينا نجرب نعمل proxy or benchmark،
+
+146
+00:11:38,390 --> 00:11:42,070
+إيش يعني proxy؟ نرجع لمثالنا بال students، حكينا
+
+147
+00:11:42,070 --> 00:11:45,530
+أن هدول البنات نعملهم training course and these
+
+148
+00:11:45,530 --> 00:11:50,230
+students they don't take any training course in
+
+149
+00:11:50,230 --> 00:11:54,320
+investmentso there is absence of training course
+
+150
+00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,560
+here absence مافيش في training course the training
+
+151
+00:11:57,560 --> 00:12:00,300
+courses are attending here يعني احنا هدول البنات
+
+152
+00:12:00,300 --> 00:12:03,160
+اعطاناهم training course و هدول ماعطاناهمش and we
+
+153
+00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:07,800
+give exam for both نعطي متحالة اتنين if the people
+
+154
+00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:09,840
+who take the exam
+
+155
+00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,920
+record a good result or higher result than these
+
+156
+00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:20,060
+people it means the training course works يعني
+
+157
+00:12:20,060 --> 00:12:25,160
+خلينا نشوف انه بنقارن ال group ال class ال class
+
+158
+00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:29,460
+مع benchmark عارفين إيش معناه benchmark؟ benchmark
+
+159
+00:12:29,460 --> 00:12:34,260
+يعني ناس زيهم بالظبط لكن ماخدوش training course
+
+160
+00:12:34,260 --> 00:12:40,200
+فإذا كان هدول بتاعون ال class اللي عملوا test ال
+
+161
+00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,820
+training course seventy percentوتعوني ال benchmark
+
+162
+00:12:42,820 --> 00:12:48,460
+70% جابوا في الاختبار so it is the same طبعا مافيش
+
+163
+00:12:48,460 --> 00:12:51,580
+مشكلة عامة يعني there is no impact of training
+
+164
+00:12:51,580 --> 00:12:56,740
+course لكن إذا وجدنا بتوع ال class جابوا 80% و ال
+
+165
+00:12:56,740 --> 00:13:01,680
+benchmark 70% it means the training course is work
+
+166
+00:13:01,680 --> 00:13:07,090
+or is workingطبعا يعني هاي طريقة تانية بن .. بن ..
+
+167
+00:13:07,090 --> 00:13:10,090
+بن .. بنشوف فيها ال abnormal later over time
+
+168
+00:13:10,090 --> 00:13:14,630
+another method we can compare the .. this class
+
+169
+00:13:14,630 --> 00:13:17,670
+with other classes with .. with the university هذا
+
+170
+00:13:17,670 --> 00:13:20,950
+بيسميها مع ال .. مع ال market كله بتشوف هدول الناس
+
+171
+00:13:20,950 --> 00:13:24,350
+مع ال market بتشوف how they make the difference
+
+172
+00:13:24,350 --> 00:13:28,650
+okay so this is the idea of the event studies هذه
+
+173
+00:13:28,650 --> 00:13:32,380
+فكرة ال event studiesالبحث الانبعاثي الانبعاثي
+
+174
+00:13:32,380 --> 00:13:36,620
+يسمح لنا باستخدام تأثير مواصلة حدث و انا اشرح ماذا
+
+175
+00:13:36,620 --> 00:13:41,660
+يعني حدث مواصلة حدث على قيمة شركة FM نشوف حدث معين
+
+176
+00:13:41,660 --> 00:13:45,780
+سكاندل صارت في تاريخ الشركة وشو أثرت على قيمة
+
+177
+00:13:45,780 --> 00:13:49,440
+الشركة نشوف مثلا إذا كان الشركة عندها ديفيدنس وشو
+
+178
+00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:54,200
+ال impact على قيمة الشركة الانبعاثي الانبعاثي التي
+
+179
+00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:58,950
+أشرحهاThe abnormal rate of return due to the event
+
+180
+00:13:58,950 --> 00:14:01,510
+is the difference between the stock's actual
+
+181
+00:14:01,510 --> 00:14:05,010
+return and a proxy for the stock's return in the
+
+182
+00:14:05,010 --> 00:14:09,030
+absence of the event يعني هو الفرق بين ال return
+
+183
+00:14:09,030 --> 00:14:14,090
+تبع السهم في
+
+184
+00:14:14,090 --> 00:14:18,810
+حالة ال event و return تبع السهم في حالة عدم وجود
+
+185
+00:14:18,810 --> 00:14:24,640
+ال eventمقارن بيناتهم او هو return تبع سهم معين
+
+186
+00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,820
+مقارن مع سهم اخر مافيش فيه event يعني يا اما
+
+187
+00:14:27,820 --> 00:14:33,440
+نقيصها هيك يا هيكيف ندرس ال event ال event ممكن
+
+188
+00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:38,760
+احنا نقارن ال pre مع ال post ال
+
+189
+00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:46,160
+pre بيكون في absence of the event هنا في attending
+
+190
+00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:50,980
+لل eventممكن احنا نقارل ال .. ال .. ال .. ال stock
+
+191
+00:14:50,980 --> 00:14:55,500
+with a benchmark و شرحنا ايش ال benchmark okay
+
+192
+00:14:55,500 --> 00:14:59,000
+يعني زي ال control group اللي بنعمل انه شركة فيه
+
+193
+00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:03,540
+صار فيها event و شركة ماصارش فيها eventOkay يعني
+
+194
+00:15:03,540 --> 00:15:06,600
+شركة وزعت أرباح وشركة ماوزعتش أرباح الشركة صار
+
+195
+00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:08,760
+فيها scandal وشركة ماصارش فيها scandal scandal
+
+196
+00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:12,780
+يعني فضيحة الشركة صار فيها leaking لل petrol وشركة
+
+197
+00:15:12,780 --> 00:15:15,780
+ماصارش فيها leaking لل petrol عشان تشوف the impact
+
+198
+00:15:15,780 --> 00:15:19,560
+of the stock price on both companies ممكن اللي
+
+199
+00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,700
+يصير أننا فيه ليش احنا بنعمل control group لأن
+
+200
+00:15:22,700 --> 00:15:26,000
+ممكن other factors تخلي الشركتان يزيدوا ال
+
+201
+00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,350
+performance بتاعتهمفمنها احنا لما نحيد ال other
+
+202
+00:15:29,350 --> 00:15:32,710
+factors تصير عندي بس انه اختار شركة صار فيها event
+
+203
+00:15:32,710 --> 00:15:36,950
+و شركة ماصارش فيها event ممكن اختار ال stock نفسه
+
+204
+00:15:36,950 --> 00:15:42,410
+معاش مع ال markets زي ما حكينا ال class مع الجامعة
+
+205
+00:15:42,410 --> 00:15:48,230
+كلها و نشوف to compare the performance most
+
+206
+00:15:48,230 --> 00:15:53,510
+of studies on the event studies focus on the
+
+207
+00:15:53,510 --> 00:15:56,290
+market model comparing the stock performance with
+
+208
+00:15:56,290 --> 00:16:00,690
+the marketيعني أغلب الدراسات ركزت على ال stock
+
+209
+00:16:00,690 --> 00:16:04,230
+performance و ال market okay how we examine this
+
+210
+00:16:04,230 --> 00:16:09,010
+how test our structures how we examine the event
+
+211
+00:16:09,010 --> 00:16:12,250
+studies returns are adjusted to determine if they
+
+212
+00:16:12,250 --> 00:16:17,990
+are abnormal يعني احنا بنحاول نعمل adjusting تعديل
+
+213
+00:16:17,990 --> 00:16:22,330
+لل return حتى انه احنا نشوف is abnormal ولا مش
+
+214
+00:16:22,330 --> 00:16:27,550
+abnormal نيجي نشرح ال market abnormal return
+
+215
+00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:38,580
+R is the return of stock at T-time يعني هو عائد
+
+216
+00:16:38,580 --> 00:16:44,480
+ثهم عند نقطة معينة من الزمن R at T-time is equal
+
+217
+00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:48,700
+alpha and I will explain what it means alpha plus
+
+218
+00:16:48,700 --> 00:16:59,630
+theta RMT plus epsilon at T-time look at hereهذه
+
+219
+00:16:59,630 --> 00:17:04,790
+هي سيكورتي ماركت لاين اعتقد انك تتذكر هذا لذلك
+
+220
+00:17:04,790 --> 00:17:13,810
+إعادة اي شركة إعادة هذه الشركة على سبيل المثال هي
+
+221
+00:17:13,810 --> 00:17:22,030
+تعتبر هذه إعادة Alpha يعني إعادة Alpha زائد
+
+222
+00:17:22,030 --> 00:17:27,450
+هذه النقطة لذلك إعادة شركة واحدة على سبيل المثال
+
+223
+00:17:27,450 --> 00:17:33,300
+شركة Aيعني العائد لـ stock A هيساوي .. تشايفين
+
+224
+00:17:33,300 --> 00:17:40,800
+الحتة هذه .. هي Alpha A plus this .. so this is
+
+225
+00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:49,560
+Alpha and this one is this .. because this is like
+
+226
+00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:55,310
+slopeSo we cannot easily measure this, we have to
+
+227
+00:17:55,310 --> 00:17:59,690
+measure the slope of this, I think in mathematical
+
+228
+00:17:59,690 --> 00:18:02,950
+we have to use some mathematical solutions to do
+
+229
+00:18:02,950 --> 00:18:08,690
+this, so to calculate this it means to calculate
+
+230
+00:18:08,690 --> 00:18:09,250
+tan theta
+
+231
+00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,560
+at the end of the day you don't need to spoil your
+
+232
+00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,640
+mind on understanding these things this is the
+
+233
+00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:23,500
+equation beta is the slope of this line with
+
+234
+00:18:23,500 --> 00:18:27,420
+regard to this line يعني ميل الخط المستقيم هذا
+
+235
+00:18:27,420 --> 00:18:34,680
+الخط على محور اللي هو السينات okay بس ال M T
+
+236
+00:18:38,790 --> 00:18:44,270
+هي ال market return بالعربي this is what you want
+
+237
+00:18:44,270 --> 00:18:52,090
+العائد لأي سهم بيساوي Alpha جزء المخطوعة هذا معروف
+
+238
+00:18:52,090 --> 00:18:55,350
+ماعنداش مشكلة اللي هو systematic risk مخاطر نظامية
+
+239
+00:18:55,350 --> 00:18:59,950
+زائد sensitivity beta هي sensitivity sensitivity
+
+240
+00:18:59,950 --> 00:19:08,800
+معناها إيش حساسية السهم لتغيرات السوقحساسية السهم
+
+241
+00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:14,980
+beta هذه حساسية السهم لتغيرات في عائد السوق بس ال
+
+242
+00:19:14,980 --> 00:19:20,580
+epsilon هذه نسبة الخطأ ال abnormal return هذه نسبة
+
+243
+00:19:20,580 --> 00:19:25,960
+الخطأ هتشوفها قبل chart إيش بتساوي طلعوا بس ركزوا
+
+244
+00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:31,180
+معايا شوية ركزوا معايا لأن هذا إشي لازم تفهموا
+
+245
+00:19:31,180 --> 00:19:35,310
+عشان تفهموا ال epsilon هذهعشان تفهم اياش ال
+
+246
+00:19:35,310 --> 00:19:38,030
+epsilon لإنه most of the researchers they
+
+247
+00:19:38,030 --> 00:19:42,530
+particularly in the in the current studies in the
+
+248
+00:19:42,530 --> 00:19:44,750
+low quality studies you know what means low
+
+249
+00:19:44,750 --> 00:19:49,930
+quality studies دراسات
+
+250
+00:19:49,930 --> 00:19:55,490
+ضعيفة they ignore epsilon and this is a very
+
+251
+00:19:55,490 --> 00:19:58,930
+important to consider epsilon what it means
+
+252
+00:19:58,930 --> 00:20:05,970
+epsilon شوفوا كيفشايفين الخط هذا؟ هذا in the real
+
+253
+00:20:05,970 --> 00:20:08,570
+world في العالم الحقيقي there is no straight line
+
+254
+00:20:08,570 --> 00:20:13,930
+okay the straight line is this is expected this is
+
+255
+00:20:13,930 --> 00:20:19,860
+expectedthis is what should be the prices or what
+
+256
+00:20:19,860 --> 00:20:23,320
+should be the security market lines and this is
+
+257
+00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:28,700
+the optimal things هذا هو متوقع but the actual is
+
+258
+00:20:28,700 --> 00:20:35,360
+going like this ال actual هو like this yes is
+
+259
+00:20:35,360 --> 00:20:38,820
+moving around the expected
+
+260
+00:20:41,530 --> 00:20:45,090
+and you know this you know that this is deviation
+
+261
+00:20:45,090 --> 00:20:53,350
+or this is like error which is epsilon okay which
+
+262
+00:20:53,350 --> 00:20:58,690
+is epsilon if epsilon look again look back to the
+
+263
+00:20:58,690 --> 00:21:02,650
+chart again and look carefully تطلعوا على ال chart
+
+264
+00:21:02,650 --> 00:21:06,770
+كمان مرة و بحذر تطلعوا if you look at this chart
+
+265
+00:21:06,770 --> 00:21:12,990
+carefully and see what you observe on thisإيش
+
+266
+00:21:12,990 --> 00:21:16,930
+بتلاحظه بال charts؟ okay this is around what they
+
+267
+00:21:16,930 --> 00:21:20,950
+expected one more observation if you just
+
+268
+00:21:20,950 --> 00:21:26,510
+scrutinize if you in depth look at the .. وين
+
+269
+00:21:26,510 --> 00:21:30,190
+بتشوفوا بتشوفوا ال return أعلى ال deviation أعلى
+
+270
+00:21:30,190 --> 00:21:34,110
+ولا أقل؟ أقلشوفوها ال deviation فهذا بيصير
+
+271
+00:21:34,110 --> 00:21:37,970
+positive abnormal return شايفين positive يعني ال
+
+272
+00:21:37,970 --> 00:21:40,790
+deviation أعلى من الخط أعلى من ال deviation اللي
+
+273
+00:21:40,790 --> 00:21:45,850
+تحت so this is positive abnormal return okay so
+
+274
+00:21:45,850 --> 00:21:49,370
+let's go back to this equation we didn't finish
+
+275
+00:21:49,370 --> 00:21:53,610
+yet so
+
+276
+00:21:53,610 --> 00:21:59,170
+what is et which is the abnormal rate of return
+
+277
+00:22:00,230 --> 00:22:06,030
+which is equal to the actual rate of return minus
+
+278
+00:22:06,030 --> 00:22:11,230
+the expected rate of return abnormal rate of
+
+279
+00:22:11,230 --> 00:22:14,970
+return is equal to the actual rate of return minus
+
+280
+00:22:14,970 --> 00:22:19,150
+the expected rate of return so epsilon is the
+
+281
+00:22:19,150 --> 00:22:22,210
+abnormal rate of return which is equal to the
+
+282
+00:22:22,210 --> 00:22:27,430
+actual minus the expected rate of returnlook at
+
+283
+00:22:27,430 --> 00:22:30,570
+this chart again just to remind you and to
+
+284
+00:22:30,570 --> 00:22:34,330
+flashing back your mind يعني دايما انا بحب اذكركم
+
+285
+00:22:34,330 --> 00:22:44,730
+بال charts if you look at this here so
+
+286
+00:22:44,730 --> 00:22:51,750
+this blue line is the expected okay and this is
+
+287
+00:22:51,750 --> 00:22:55,250
+the the black one is the actual
+
+288
+00:22:58,950 --> 00:23:04,310
+So the AT which is the abnormal rate of return is
+
+289
+00:23:04,310 --> 00:23:09,410
+the actual minus the expected if actual is equal
+
+290
+00:23:09,410 --> 00:23:13,450
+to expected it means there is no abnormal return
+
+291
+00:23:13,450 --> 00:23:19,930
+إذا if you observe like this and you see the
+
+292
+00:23:19,930 --> 00:23:30,990
+actual is you see is likeclose to the .. so it
+
+293
+00:23:30,990 --> 00:23:34,410
+means this is insignificant insignificant change
+
+294
+00:23:34,410 --> 00:23:42,290
+it means هي the actual equal the expected so
+
+295
+00:23:42,290 --> 00:23:50,930
+our mission is to estimate the Eوهي كمية الواقع
+
+296
+00:23:50,930 --> 00:23:54,610
+الذي يتجاوز من الواقع المتوقع وهو الـ Abnormal
+
+297
+00:23:54,610 --> 00:23:57,630
+Rate of Return لذلك Abnormal Rate of Return مرة
+
+298
+00:23:57,630 --> 00:24:01,210
+أخرى فقط لتحريك المقارنة كما قلت هذا هو الواقع
+
+299
+00:24:01,210 --> 00:24:05,130
+وهذا
+
+300
+00:24:05,130 --> 00:24:10,970
+هو الواقع المتوقع وهو مرة أخرى الواقع المتوقع هو
+
+301
+00:24:10,970 --> 00:24:11,150
+هذا
+
+302
+00:24:34,190 --> 00:24:39,090
+فهمتوا هالمعادلة؟ very simple طيب هلا افتح صفحه
+
+303
+00:24:39,090 --> 00:24:47,060
+354شوف صفحة 354 في عندكم مثال suppose that the
+
+304
+00:24:47,060 --> 00:24:50,620
+analyst has estimated Alpha انتبهوا يا بنات
+
+305
+00:24:50,620 --> 00:24:56,000
+افترضوا ان ال analyst estimated Alpha اتوقعوا
+
+306
+00:24:56,000 --> 00:25:03,360
+Alpha and you know what it means Alpha Alpha is 0
+
+307
+00:25:03,360 --> 00:25:10,060
+.05% طب عارفين where is Alpha هاي Alpha okayand
+
+308
+00:25:10,060 --> 00:25:15,920
+beta point eight ايش معناه beta point eight؟ في حد
+
+309
+00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,980
+بيعرفه تتميز beta؟ هاذي ال slope بتاع هذا بيسميه
+
+310
+00:25:19,980 --> 00:25:22,440
+beta او beta
+
+311
+00:25:25,890 --> 00:25:29,450
+إذا ال market تبقى إيش معناه what it means ألف
+
+312
+00:25:29,450 --> 00:25:34,190
+بيتا بيتا it means هي ال slope تبع هذا slope طبعا
+
+313
+00:25:34,190 --> 00:25:37,650
+ماعرفش أنتوا بال .. أخدتوا mathematic تمليح ولا لأ
+
+314
+00:25:37,650 --> 00:25:41,350
+المال اللي هو slope إيش معناه ال .. ال .. ال beta
+
+315
+00:25:41,350 --> 00:25:46,390
+slope يعني إذا تغير ال market واحدة واحدة فالسوق
+
+316
+00:25:46,390 --> 00:25:51,610
+هيتغير point eight عفوا ال return يعني إذا طلع
+
+317
+00:25:51,610 --> 00:25:56,050
+عشرة في المية السوقالسهم بيطلع تمانية في المية
+
+318
+00:25:56,050 --> 00:26:00,790
+وإذا نزل أشرة في المية السهم بنزل تمانية في المية
+
+319
+00:26:00,790 --> 00:26:06,290
+okay that's it طيب so this is beta كام beta كانت
+
+320
+00:26:06,290 --> 00:26:15,670
+point eight on a day that the markets go up on
+
+321
+00:26:15,670 --> 00:26:20,090
+the day of the market goes up by one percent you
+
+322
+00:26:20,090 --> 00:26:22,590
+would predict from the equation إذا السوق اتطلع
+
+323
+00:26:22,590 --> 00:26:26,710
+واحد في الميةOkay that the stock should rise by
+
+324
+00:26:26,710 --> 00:26:29,810
+the expected value of خليني أقول السوق جديد صار
+
+325
+00:26:29,810 --> 00:26:34,130
+طبق المعادلة يا بناتي بدنا نحسب ال R normal مرتين
+
+326
+00:26:34,130 --> 00:26:40,830
+ايش عندنا احنا؟ في عندنا الف كام؟ خمسة في المين
+
+327
+00:26:40,830 --> 00:26:50,590
+زائد بيتا كام؟ point eight و ال RMT كام؟ point
+
+328
+00:26:50,590 --> 00:27:03,910
+واحد صح؟ طيب0.0% 1% احسبوها شوفوا كده تطلع بطلع
+
+329
+00:27:03,910 --> 00:27:10,370
+الجوا بال RT كام 8.5% طيب عشان نحسب ال up normal
+
+330
+00:27:10,370 --> 00:27:16,350
+تاني لو السوق بدل ما هو 1% طلع 2% مش هنسوي هنعيد
+
+331
+00:27:16,350 --> 00:27:28,220
+نفس الخطوة 5% زي 0.8 ضرب 0.02بطلع كام؟ بطلع ..
+
+332
+00:27:28,220 --> 00:27:33,260
+شوفوا كام بطلع عنكم طبعا
+
+333
+00:27:33,260 --> 00:27:36,900
+ال abnormal التاني هو الفرق بيناتهم هذا المثال
+
+334
+00:27:36,900 --> 00:27:49,260
+okay المثال هذا موجود في صفحة 354 استني
+
+335
+00:27:49,260 --> 00:27:49,640
+شوية
+
+336
+00:27:53,020 --> 00:28:00,520
+انتوا هذا واضح عندكم صح هذا
+
+337
+00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:07,240
+خلينا هذا خمسة في المية له ال alpha plus point
+
+338
+00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,720
+eight beta اجمعيهم مع بعض كم بيطلع
+
+339
+00:28:19,730 --> 00:28:24,450
+لأ خلينا بس انت حسبينها لو خلصينها منها حسبتها طب
+
+340
+00:28:24,450 --> 00:28:28,110
+حسبيها كام تطلع اللي هو point eight five percent
+
+341
+00:28:28,110 --> 00:28:39,830
+طبعا طب
+
+342
+00:28:39,830 --> 00:28:49,240
+إذا كان خلصنا عند اللحظة هذهطب إذا كان .. انتبهوا
+
+343
+00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:56,200
+كمان ..كمل هان إذا كان ال .. ال R .. ال RT بعد
+
+344
+00:28:56,200 --> 00:29:02,280
+ال event حسبناها .. بعد ال event طلعت 2% كم ال
+
+345
+00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:09,460
+abnormality تاني؟ كم ال abnormality تاني؟ طب احنا
+
+346
+00:29:09,460 --> 00:29:12,100
+طلعت هنا point eight five percent
+
+347
+00:29:14,830 --> 00:29:17,150
+يعني جابني ال event كانت point eight five percent
+
+348
+00:29:17,150 --> 00:29:26,670
+هذا ال expected أو اللي قبل لما بعد ال event اتنية
+
+349
+00:29:26,670 --> 00:29:30,390
+في المية حسبنا ال RT طلعت اتنية في المية هذا معطاه
+
+350
+00:29:30,390 --> 00:29:35,810
+أداش ال abnormal return قبل ال event اتنية في
+
+351
+00:29:35,810 --> 00:29:41,390
+المية معقص بيطلع point eight point two eight معقص
+
+352
+00:29:41,390 --> 00:29:41,810
+point
+
+353
+00:30:09,750 --> 00:30:20,330
+الـ RT ماعطيكوا يعنىبعد ال event بتساوي 2% قبل ال
+
+354
+00:30:20,330 --> 00:30:25,470
+event حسبناها اللي هي 0.85% اللي هي هذه بحسب
+
+355
+00:30:25,470 --> 00:30:29,470
+المعادلة بتراجعوا
+
+356
+00:30:29,470 --> 00:30:40,830
+المثال في صفحه 354 خلينا
+
+357
+00:30:40,830 --> 00:30:50,360
+نركز احناال RT نتوقعها صح اللي هي ال expected
+
+358
+00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:54,480
+حكينا احنا ايش ال actual minus the expected ال
+
+359
+00:30:54,480 --> 00:31:01,360
+abnormal اللي هي E بتساوي ال actual minus the
+
+360
+00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:05,940
+expected طيب ال actual معروفة عندي انا عارفها اللي
+
+361
+00:31:05,940 --> 00:31:12,360
+هو اتنين في الميةمعروفة بدّي ال expected ال
+
+362
+00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:16,020
+expected لازم أحسبها فبدا أحسبها في عند ال alpha
+
+363
+00:31:16,020 --> 00:31:20,400
+خمسة في المية عند ال beta point eight و عند ال MT
+
+364
+00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:25,260
+ال RMT point one نضربهم في بعض market return
+
+365
+00:31:25,260 --> 00:31:29,780
+market return okay فحكيلي في السؤال market return
+
+366
+00:31:29,780 --> 00:31:35,660
+increase by one percent مظبوط فالعوضناعوضناها
+
+367
+00:31:35,660 --> 00:31:39,200
+نعوضناها نطلع لنا إيش ال expected ال expected كام
+
+368
+00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:43,940
+point eight five percent نجت ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص
+
+369
+00:31:43,940 --> 00:31:46,540
+ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص
+
+370
+00:31:46,540 --> 00:31:46,720
+ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص
+
+371
+00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:47,300
+ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص
+
+372
+00:31:47,300 --> 00:31:50,500
+ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص ناقص
+
+373
+00:31:50,500 --> 00:32:00,580
+ناقص ناقص ناقص ناق
+
+374
+00:32:01,390 --> 00:32:06,690
+إيش القانون اللي بيحكي ال RT the expected okay
+
+375
+00:32:06,690 --> 00:32:11,610
+minus the actual ال
+
+376
+00:32:11,610 --> 00:32:17,190
+expected توقع بدلالة هدول اللي احنا طلعناها اللي
+
+377
+00:32:17,190 --> 00:32:20,870
+هو Alpha زائد هذا و ال ET ما احنا مش عارفينها okay
+
+378
+00:32:20,870 --> 00:32:26,070
+فاحنا هذه ال ET جيبناها بدلالة RT minus يعني هذه
+
+379
+00:32:26,070 --> 00:32:30,490
+المعادلة هذا معروف و هذا معروف بس هذا مش معروف
+
+380
+00:32:33,980 --> 00:32:37,580
+طبعا فبنجيب و نجيب ال AT و نجيب الدلالة هذه هذي ال
+
+381
+00:32:37,580 --> 00:32:43,380
+RT معطيك إياها و Alpha هذي معطيك إياها فبنجيب ال
+
+382
+00:32:43,380 --> 00:32:49,240
+AT هذي
+
+383
+00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:54,440
+هذي نفسها هذي .. هذي لازم أولا نطبق هذي و بعدها
+
+384
+00:32:54,440 --> 00:33:00,120
+نطبق هذي عشان نجيب هذي طبعا بكفي هذي و ان شاء الله
+
+385
+00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:00,920
+الدرجة هيكمل
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/g6Dw4Dppwrs_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/g6Dw4Dppwrs_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f9aec54119a53635790357bae842f59f311657cf
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/g6Dw4Dppwrs_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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"probability": 0.96142578125}, {"start": 421.53, "end": 421.85, "word": " post", "probability": 0.92578125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 16, "seek": 45217, "start": 423.61, "end": 452.17, "text": "إذا R في الوصف أكبر من R في الأمام، فهذا يعني أن هناك تأثير على المعلومات الجديدة على الـ Return. لذلك، هنا نخلق Return غير عادل، لأن R في الوصف أكبر من R في الأمام، وهو ما يخلق Return غير عادل. إذا كان لدينا Return غير عادل، فهو Positive، لأن ر بوست أكبر من ر بي،", "tokens": [28814, 15730, 497, 8978, 2423, 2407, 9381, 5172, 5551, 4117, 26890, 9154, 497, 8978, 2423, 10721, 2304, 10943, 12399, 6156, 3224, 15730, 37495, 22653, 14739, 34105, 4117, 6055, 10721, 12984, 13546, 15844, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 25724, 16254, 41891, 15844, 2423, 39184, 24350, 13, 5296, 8848, 23275, 12399, 34105, 8717, 9778, 1211, 4587, 24350, 32771, 13546, 6225, 18513, 1211, 12399, 5296, 33456, 497, 8978, 2423, 2407, 9381, 5172, 5551, 4117, 26890, 9154, 497, 8978, 2423, 10721, 2304, 10943, 12399, 37037, 2407, 19446, 7251, 9778, 1211, 4587, 24350, 32771, 13546, 6225, 18513, 1211, 13, 11933, 15730, 25961, 5296, 16254, 8315, 24350, 32771, 13546, 6225, 18513, 1211, 12399, 6156, 3224, 2407, 46326, 12399, 5296, 33456, 12602, 4724, 2407, 14851, 5551, 4117, 26890, 9154, 12602, 4724, 1829, 12399], "avg_logprob": -0.4355158834230332, "compression_ratio": 2.0913461538461537, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 423.61, "end": 423.93, "word": "إذا", "probability": 0.756103515625}, {"start": 423.93, "end": 424.57, "word": " R", "probability": 0.384521484375}, {"start": 424.57, "end": 425.45, "word": " في", "probability": 0.291259765625}, {"start": 425.45, "end": 425.75, "word": " الوصف", "probability": 0.452880859375}, {"start": 425.75, "end": 426.19, "word": " أكبر", "probability": 0.6829427083333334}, {"start": 426.19, "end": 426.63, "word": " من", "probability": 0.970703125}, {"start": 426.63, "end": 427.45, "word": " R", "probability": 0.8701171875}, {"start": 427.45, "end": 427.63, "word": " في", "probability": 0.7548828125}, {"start": 427.63, "end": 428.55, "word": " الأمام،", "probability": 0.5039306640625}, {"start": 428.55, "end": 428.87, "word": " فهذا", "probability": 0.5318196614583334}, {"start": 428.87, "end": 429.15, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 429.15, "end": 429.41, "word": " أن", "probability": 0.763671875}, {"start": 429.41, "end": 430.13, "word": " هناك", "probability": 0.80322265625}, {"start": 430.13, "end": 430.57, "word": " تأثير", "probability": 0.6778564453125}, {"start": 430.57, "end": 431.05, "word": " على", "probability": 0.4013671875}, {"start": 431.05, "end": 431.97, "word": " المعلومات", "probability": 0.8140869140625}, {"start": 431.97, "end": 431.97, "word": " الجديدة", "probability": 0.8312174479166666}, {"start": 431.97, "end": 432.27, "word": " على", "probability": 0.39404296875}, {"start": 432.27, "end": 432.51, "word": " الـ", "probability": 0.3111572265625}, {"start": 432.51, "end": 433.43, "word": " Return.", "probability": 0.408935546875}, {"start": 434.49, "end": 435.33, "word": " لذلك،", "probability": 0.6834716796875}, {"start": 435.33, "end": 435.53, "word": " هنا", "probability": 0.6650390625}, {"start": 435.53, "end": 436.13, "word": " نخلق", "probability": 0.61553955078125}, {"start": 436.13, "end": 436.33, "word": " Return", "probability": 0.2347412109375}, {"start": 436.33, "end": 436.41, "word": " غير", "probability": 0.64599609375}, {"start": 436.41, "end": 437.19, "word": " عادل،", "probability": 0.6038818359375}, {"start": 437.19, "end": 438.31, "word": " لأن", "probability": 0.940185546875}, {"start": 438.31, "end": 438.69, "word": " R", "probability": 0.75341796875}, {"start": 438.69, "end": 438.85, "word": " في", "probability": 0.89990234375}, {"start": 438.85, "end": 439.27, "word": " الوصف", "probability": 0.9449462890625}, {"start": 439.27, "end": 440.13, "word": " أكبر", "probability": 0.94775390625}, {"start": 440.13, "end": 440.45, "word": " من", "probability": 0.986328125}, {"start": 440.45, "end": 441.11, "word": " R", "probability": 0.93701171875}, {"start": 441.11, "end": 441.31, "word": " في", "probability": 0.77783203125}, {"start": 441.31, "end": 441.85, "word": " الأمام،", "probability": 0.80498046875}, {"start": 441.85, "end": 442.41, "word": " وهو", "probability": 0.6773681640625}, {"start": 442.41, "end": 442.45, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.6279296875}, {"start": 442.45, "end": 442.87, "word": " يخلق", "probability": 0.8109130859375}, {"start": 442.87, "end": 443.09, "word": " Return", "probability": 0.544921875}, {"start": 443.09, "end": 443.23, "word": " غير", "probability": 0.98828125}, {"start": 443.23, "end": 443.45, "word": " عادل.", "probability": 0.9580078125}, {"start": 445.61, "end": 446.45, "word": " إذا", "probability": 0.790771484375}, {"start": 446.45, "end": 446.77, "word": " كان", "probability": 0.6845703125}, {"start": 446.77, "end": 446.85, "word": " لدينا", "probability": 0.8649088541666666}, {"start": 446.85, "end": 447.29, "word": " Return", "probability": 0.392578125}, {"start": 447.29, "end": 447.77, "word": " غير", "probability": 0.978271484375}, {"start": 447.77, "end": 448.43, "word": " عادل،", "probability": 0.80108642578125}, {"start": 448.43, "end": 448.87, "word": " فهو", "probability": 0.7267252604166666}, {"start": 448.87, "end": 449.85, "word": " Positive،", "probability": 0.1900634765625}, {"start": 449.85, "end": 450.37, "word": " لأن", "probability": 0.949951171875}, {"start": 450.37, "end": 450.69, "word": " ر", "probability": 0.275390625}, {"start": 450.69, "end": 450.97, "word": " بوست", "probability": 0.4654134114583333}, {"start": 450.97, "end": 451.41, "word": " أكبر", "probability": 0.98193359375}, {"start": 451.41, "end": 451.61, "word": " من", "probability": 0.98828125}, {"start": 451.61, "end": 451.85, "word": " ر", "probability": 0.69287109375}, {"start": 451.85, "end": 452.17, "word": " بي،", "probability": 0.75927734375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 17, "seek": 46776, "start": 452.54, "end": 467.76, "text": "So if we have positive abnormal return it means the new information released to the market has a positive impact on the rate of return يعني إذا شفنا إحنا العائد", "tokens": [6455, 498, 321, 362, 3353, 32847, 2736, 309, 1355, 264, 777, 1589, 4736, 281, 264, 2142, 575, 257, 3353, 2712, 322, 264, 3314, 295, 2736, 37495, 22653, 11933, 15730, 13412, 5172, 8315, 11933, 5016, 8315, 18863, 16373, 3215], "avg_logprob": -0.1544471214979123, "compression_ratio": 1.2836879432624113, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 452.54, "end": 452.94, "word": "So", "probability": 0.70751953125}, {"start": 452.94, "end": 453.66, "word": " if", "probability": 0.869140625}, {"start": 453.66, "end": 453.78, "word": " we", "probability": 0.95458984375}, {"start": 453.78, "end": 454.0, "word": " have", "probability": 0.93505859375}, {"start": 454.0, "end": 454.44, "word": " positive", "probability": 0.8837890625}, {"start": 454.44, "end": 454.9, "word": " abnormal", "probability": 0.7451171875}, {"start": 454.9, "end": 455.3, "word": " return", "probability": 0.7578125}, {"start": 455.3, "end": 455.46, "word": " it", "probability": 0.74169921875}, {"start": 455.46, "end": 455.92, "word": " means", "probability": 0.9365234375}, {"start": 455.92, "end": 456.64, "word": " the", "probability": 0.74169921875}, {"start": 456.64, "end": 457.32, "word": " new", "probability": 0.6044921875}, {"start": 457.32, "end": 458.14, "word": " information", "probability": 0.8603515625}, {"start": 458.14, "end": 459.06, "word": " released", "probability": 0.8564453125}, {"start": 459.06, "end": 459.22, "word": " to", "probability": 0.96533203125}, {"start": 459.22, "end": 459.34, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8681640625}, {"start": 459.34, "end": 459.68, "word": " market", "probability": 0.9169921875}, {"start": 459.68, "end": 460.12, "word": " has", "probability": 0.94873046875}, {"start": 460.12, "end": 460.94, "word": " a", "probability": 0.92724609375}, {"start": 460.94, "end": 461.24, "word": " positive", "probability": 0.92626953125}, {"start": 461.24, "end": 461.78, "word": " impact", "probability": 0.96044921875}, {"start": 461.78, "end": 462.16, "word": " on", "probability": 0.95556640625}, {"start": 462.16, "end": 462.34, "word": " the", "probability": 0.82958984375}, {"start": 462.34, "end": 462.48, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.92626953125}, {"start": 462.48, "end": 462.6, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9736328125}, {"start": 462.6, "end": 462.96, "word": " return", "probability": 0.92724609375}, {"start": 462.96, "end": 464.24, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.861328125}, {"start": 464.24, "end": 464.52, "word": " إذا", "probability": 0.857177734375}, {"start": 464.52, "end": 465.62, "word": " شفنا", "probability": 0.78857421875}, {"start": 465.62, "end": 465.9, "word": " إحنا", "probability": 0.8359375}, {"start": 465.9, "end": 467.76, "word": " العائد", "probability": 0.9650065104166666}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 18, "seek": 49730, "start": 468.8, "end": 497.3, "text": "بعد الحدث أعلى من العائد قبل الحدث ما كان فيه abnormal return عائد غير طبيعي طب العائد الغير طبيعي ليش صار because of the new information لأن ال new information هي اللي عملت ال abnormal rate of return يعني هذه ال new information make the abnormal rate of return okay if R at pre if R at pre equal", "tokens": [3555, 22488, 21542, 3215, 12984, 5551, 3615, 23942, 9154, 18863, 16373, 3215, 12174, 36150, 21542, 3215, 12984, 19446, 25961, 8978, 3224, 32847, 2736, 6225, 16373, 3215, 32771, 13546, 23032, 21292, 3615, 1829, 23032, 3555, 18863, 16373, 3215, 6024, 118, 13546, 23032, 21292, 3615, 1829, 32239, 8592, 20328, 9640, 570, 295, 264, 777, 1589, 5296, 33456, 2423, 777, 1589, 39896, 13672, 1829, 6225, 42213, 2655, 2423, 32847, 3314, 295, 2736, 37495, 22653, 29538, 2423, 777, 1589, 652, 264, 32847, 3314, 295, 2736, 1392, 498, 497, 412, 659, 498, 497, 412, 659, 2681], "avg_logprob": 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"end": 481.74, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.93212890625}, {"start": 481.74, "end": 481.86, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9736328125}, {"start": 481.86, "end": 482.18, "word": " return", "probability": 0.9384765625}, {"start": 482.18, "end": 483.72, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.898681640625}, {"start": 483.72, "end": 484.08, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.86376953125}, {"start": 484.08, "end": 484.18, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.73779296875}, {"start": 484.18, "end": 484.28, "word": " new", "probability": 0.58984375}, {"start": 484.28, "end": 484.82, "word": " information", "probability": 0.9169921875}, {"start": 484.82, "end": 485.46, "word": " make", "probability": 0.6787109375}, {"start": 485.46, "end": 485.68, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8623046875}, {"start": 485.68, "end": 486.24, "word": " abnormal", "probability": 0.89892578125}, {"start": 486.24, "end": 488.18, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.978515625}, {"start": 488.18, "end": 489.32, "word": " of", 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ال .. ال stock with a benchmark و شرحنا ايش ال benchmark okay يعني زي ال control group اللي بنعمل انه شركة فيه صار فيها event و شركة ماصارش فيها event", "tokens": [2304, 43020, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 4587, 9640, 1211, 2423, 4386, 2423, 4386, 2423, 4386, 2423, 4127, 365, 257, 18927, 4032, 13412, 2288, 5016, 8315, 1975, 1829, 8592, 2423, 18927, 1392, 37495, 22653, 30767, 1829, 2423, 1969, 1594, 13672, 1829, 44945, 25957, 1211, 16472, 3224, 13412, 31747, 3660, 8978, 3224, 20328, 9640, 8978, 11296, 2280, 4032, 13412, 31747, 3660, 19446, 9381, 9640, 8592, 8978, 11296, 2280], "avg_logprob": -0.1606809710388753, "compression_ratio": 1.5696969696969696, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 888.1, "end": 888.5, "word": "ممكن", "probability": 0.980712890625}, {"start": 888.5, "end": 888.72, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.91162109375}, {"start": 888.72, "end": 889.3, "word": " نقارل", "probability": 0.86328125}, {"start": 889.3, "end": 889.62, "word": " ال", "probability": 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"end": 920.26, "word": " فيه", "probability": 0.7274169921875}, {"start": 920.26, "end": 920.52, "word": " ليش", "probability": 0.864990234375}, {"start": 920.52, "end": 920.68, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8492838541666666}, {"start": 920.68, "end": 921.12, "word": " بنعمل", "probability": 0.9763997395833334}, {"start": 921.12, "end": 921.48, "word": " control", "probability": 0.89208984375}, {"start": 921.48, "end": 921.86, "word": " group", "probability": 0.9853515625}, {"start": 921.86, "end": 922.7, "word": " لأن", "probability": 0.822509765625}, {"start": 922.7, "end": 923.0, "word": " ممكن", "probability": 0.968017578125}, {"start": 923.0, "end": 923.3, "word": " other", "probability": 0.87109375}, {"start": 923.3, "end": 923.92, "word": " factors", "probability": 0.97998046875}, {"start": 923.92, "end": 924.62, "word": " تخلي", "probability": 0.8282877604166666}, {"start": 924.62, "end": 925.18, "word": " الشركتان", "probability": 0.9095458984375}, {"start": 925.18, "end": 925.94, "word": " يزيدوا", "probability": 0.9910888671875}, {"start": 925.94, "end": 926.0, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 926.0, "end": 926.36, "word": " performance", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 926.36, "end": 926.82, "word": " بتاعتهم", "probability": 0.869384765625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 37, "seek": 95663, "start": 927.51, "end": 956.63, "text": "فمنها احنا لما نحيد ال other factors تصير عندي بس انه اختار شركة صار فيها event و شركة ماصارش فيها event ممكن اختار ال stock نفسه معاش مع ال markets زي ما حكينا ال class مع الجامعة كلها و نشوف to compare the performance most of studies on the event studies focus on the market model comparing the stock performance with the market", "tokens": [5172, 27842, 11296, 1975, 5016, 8315, 5296, 15042, 8717, 5016, 25708, 2423, 661, 6771, 6055, 9381, 13546, 18871, 16254, 4724, 3794, 16472, 3224, 1975, 46456, 9640, 13412, 31747, 3660, 20328, 9640, 8978, 11296, 2280, 4032, 13412, 31747, 3660, 19446, 9381, 9640, 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"word": " model", "probability": 0.912109375}, {"start": 954.21, "end": 955.19, "word": " comparing", "probability": 0.900390625}, {"start": 955.19, "end": 955.45, "word": " the", "probability": 0.92578125}, {"start": 955.45, "end": 955.67, "word": " stock", "probability": 0.87890625}, {"start": 955.67, "end": 956.15, "word": " performance", "probability": 0.87451171875}, {"start": 956.15, "end": 956.29, "word": " with", "probability": 0.876953125}, {"start": 956.29, "end": 956.43, "word": " the", "probability": 0.87890625}, {"start": 956.43, "end": 956.63, "word": " market", "probability": 0.75732421875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 38, "seek": 98755, "start": 958.23, "end": 987.55, "text": "يعني أغلب الدراسات ركزت على ال stock performance و ال market okay how we examine this how test our structures how we examine the event studies returns are adjusted to determine if they are abnormal يعني احنا بنحاول نعمل adjusting تعديل لل return حتى انه احنا نشوف is abnormal ولا مش abnormal نيجي نشرح ال market abnormal return", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 5551, 17082, 46152, 32748, 23557, 3794, 9307, 12602, 4117, 11622, 2655, 15844, 2423, 4127, 3389, 4032, 2423, 2142, 1392, 577, 321, 17496, 341, 577, 1500, 527, 9227, 577, 321, 17496, 264, 2280, 5313, 11247, 366, 19871, 281, 6997, 498, 436, 366, 32847, 37495, 22653, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 5016, 995, 12610, 8717, 25957, 1211, 23559, 37279, 16254, 1211, 24976, 2736, 11331, 49975, 16472, 3224, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 8592, 38688, 307, 32847, 49429, 37893, 32847, 8717, 1829, 7435, 1829, 8717, 46309, 5016, 2423, 2142, 32847, 2736], "avg_logprob": -0.1782830096362682, "compression_ratio": 1.642570281124498, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 958.23, "end": 958.49, "word": "يعني", "probability": 0.921630859375}, {"start": 958.49, "end": 958.71, "word": " أغلب", "probability": 0.9527994791666666}, {"start": 958.71, "end": 959.23, "word": " الدراسات", "probability": 0.9913330078125}, {"start": 959.23, "end": 959.67, "word": " 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1009.74, "word": " theta", "probability": 0.615234375}, {"start": 1009.74, "end": 1011.5, "word": " RMT", "probability": 0.9521484375}, {"start": 1011.5, "end": 1012.34, "word": " plus", "probability": 0.93798828125}, {"start": 1012.34, "end": 1013.66, "word": " epsilon", "probability": 0.86572265625}, {"start": 1013.66, "end": 1014.26, "word": " at", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 1014.26, "end": 1014.38, "word": " T", "probability": 0.9775390625}, {"start": 1014.38, "end": 1014.7, "word": "-time", "probability": 0.967041015625}, {"start": 1014.7, "end": 1016.3, "word": " look", "probability": 0.662109375}, {"start": 1016.3, "end": 1016.5, "word": " at", "probability": 0.974609375}, {"start": 1016.5, "end": 1016.74, "word": " here", "probability": 0.849609375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 40, "seek": 104803, "start": 1019.11, "end": 1048.03, "text": "هذه هي سيكورتي ماركت لاين اعتقد انك تتذكر هذا لذلك إعادة اي شركة إعادة هذه الشركة على سبيل المثال هي تعتبر هذه إعادة Alpha يعني إعادة Alpha زائد هذه النقطة لذلك إعادة شركة واحدة على سبيل المثال شركة A", "tokens": [3224, 24192, 39896, 8608, 1829, 4117, 13063, 31371, 3714, 9640, 4117, 2655, 20193, 9957, 1975, 34268, 28543, 16472, 4117, 6055, 2655, 8848, 37983, 23758, 5296, 8848, 23275, 11933, 3615, 18513, 3660, 1975, 1829, 13412, 31747, 3660, 11933, 3615, 18513, 3660, 29538, 25124, 31747, 3660, 15844, 8608, 21292, 1211, 9673, 12984, 6027, 39896, 6055, 34268, 26890, 29538, 11933, 3615, 18513, 3660, 20588, 37495, 22653, 11933, 3615, 18513, 3660, 20588, 30767, 16373, 3215, 29538, 28239, 47432, 3660, 5296, 8848, 23275, 11933, 3615, 18513, 3660, 13412, 31747, 3660, 36764, 24401, 3660, 15844, 8608, 21292, 1211, 9673, 12984, 6027, 13412, 31747, 3660, 316], "avg_logprob": -0.503125011920929, "compression_ratio": 1.9830508474576272, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1019.11, "end": 1019.63, "word": "هذه", "probability": 0.5341796875}, {"start": 1019.63, "end": 1019.83, "word": " هي", "probability": 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1047.45, "end": 1047.71, "word": " شركة", "probability": 0.94921875}, {"start": 1047.71, "end": 1048.03, "word": " A", "probability": 0.7451171875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 41, "seek": 107011, "start": 1049.32, "end": 1070.12, "text": "يعني العائد لـ stock A هيساوي .. تشايفين الحتة هذه .. هي Alpha A plus this .. so this is Alpha and this one is this .. because this is like slope", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 18863, 16373, 3215, 5296, 39184, 4127, 316, 39896, 3794, 995, 45865, 4386, 6055, 8592, 995, 33911, 9957, 21542, 2655, 3660, 29538, 4386, 39896, 20588, 316, 1804, 341, 4386, 370, 341, 307, 20588, 293, 341, 472, 307, 341, 4386, 570, 341, 307, 411, 13525], "avg_logprob": -0.3374660339044488, "compression_ratio": 1.3043478260869565, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1049.32, "end": 1049.6, "word": "يعني", "probability": 0.923583984375}, {"start": 1049.6, "end": 1049.98, "word": " العائد", "probability": 0.8361002604166666}, {"start": 1049.98, "end": 1050.18, "word": " لـ", 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" أخرى", "probability": 0.9646809895833334}, {"start": 1437.73, "end": 1437.97, "word": " فقط", "probability": 0.6854248046875}, {"start": 1437.97, "end": 1438.35, "word": " لتحريك", "probability": 0.5169921875}, {"start": 1438.35, "end": 1439.03, "word": " المقارنة", "probability": 0.4890380859375}, {"start": 1439.03, "end": 1439.37, "word": " كما", "probability": 0.884033203125}, {"start": 1439.37, "end": 1439.79, "word": " قلت", "probability": 0.93896484375}, {"start": 1439.79, "end": 1440.57, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.50244140625}, {"start": 1440.57, "end": 1440.79, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.84814453125}, {"start": 1440.79, "end": 1441.21, "word": " الواقع", "probability": 0.9517822265625}, {"start": 1441.21, "end": 1445.13, "word": " وهذا", "probability": 0.5922037760416666}, {"start": 1445.13, "end": 1446.71, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.92578125}, {"start": 1446.71, "end": 1448.13, "word": " الواقع", "probability": 0.8641357421875}, {"start": 1448.13, "end": 1448.37, "word": " المتوقع", "probability": 0.9000244140625}, {"start": 1448.37, "end": 1449.77, "word": " وهو", "probability": 0.6943359375}, {"start": 1449.77, "end": 1449.91, "word": " مرة", "probability": 0.8818359375}, {"start": 1449.91, "end": 1450.01, "word": " أخرى", "probability": 0.9842122395833334}, {"start": 1450.01, "end": 1450.35, "word": " الواقع", "probability": 0.78082275390625}, {"start": 1450.35, "end": 1450.65, "word": " المتوقع", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 1450.65, "end": 1450.97, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.44091796875}, {"start": 1450.97, "end": 1451.15, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.876953125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 57, "seek": 148029, "start": 1474.19, "end": 1480.29, "text": "فهمتوا هالمعادلة؟ very simple طيب هلا افتح صفحه 354", "tokens": [5172, 16095, 2655, 14407, 8032, 6027, 2304, 3615, 18513, 37977, 22807, 588, 2199, 23032, 1829, 3555, 8032, 15040, 1975, 5172, 2655, 5016, 20328, 5172, 5016, 3224, 6976, 19], "avg_logprob": 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مثال suppose that the analyst has estimated Alpha انتبهوا يا بنات افترضوا ان ال analyst estimated Alpha اتوقعوا Alpha and you know what it means Alpha Alpha is 0.05% طب عارفين where is Alpha هاي Alpha okay", "tokens": [8592, 38688, 20328, 5172, 5016, 3660, 6976, 19, 8978, 43242, 24793, 50113, 6027, 7297, 300, 264, 19085, 575, 14109, 20588, 16472, 2655, 3555, 3224, 14407, 35186, 4724, 8315, 2655, 1975, 5172, 2655, 43042, 14407, 16472, 2423, 19085, 14109, 20588, 1975, 2655, 30543, 3615, 14407, 20588, 293, 291, 458, 437, 309, 1355, 20588, 20588, 307, 1958, 13, 13328, 4, 23032, 3555, 6225, 9640, 5172, 9957, 689, 307, 20588, 8032, 47302, 20588, 1392], "avg_logprob": -0.22873264530466664, "compression_ratio": 1.4, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1481.88, "end": 1482.14, "word": "شوف", "probability": 0.8212890625}, {"start": 1482.14, "end": 1482.4, "word": " صفحة", "probability": 0.88720703125}, {"start": 1482.4, "end": 1483.36, "word": " 354", "probability": 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"end": 1907.68, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.989501953125}, {"start": 1907.68, "end": 1907.68, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.989501953125}, {"start": 1907.68, "end": 1907.68, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.9893798828125}, {"start": 1907.68, "end": 1907.68, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.989501953125}, {"start": 1907.68, "end": 1907.68, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.9896240234375}, {"start": 1907.68, "end": 1907.68, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.9896240234375}, {"start": 1907.68, "end": 1909.46, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.989501953125}, {"start": 1909.46, "end": 1910.5, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.98974609375}, {"start": 1910.5, "end": 1911.72, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.9898681640625}, {"start": 1911.72, "end": 1914.2, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.9901123046875}, {"start": 1914.2, "end": 1915.22, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.9896240234375}, {"start": 1915.22, "end": 1920.58, "word": " ناق", "probability": 0.9869791666666666}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 74, "seek": 195049, "start": 1921.39, "end": 1950.49, "text": "إيش القانون اللي بيحكي ال RT the expected okay minus the actual ال expected توقع بدلالة هدول اللي احنا طلعناها اللي هو Alpha زائد هذا و ال ET ما احنا مش عارفينها okay فاحنا هذه ال ET جيبناها بدلالة RT minus يعني هذه المعادلة هذا معروف و هذا معروف بس هذا مش معروف", "tokens": [28814, 1829, 8592, 25062, 7649, 11536, 13672, 1829, 4724, 1829, 5016, 4117, 1829, 2423, 21797, 264, 5176, 1392, 3175, 264, 3539, 2423, 5176, 6055, 30543, 3615, 4724, 3215, 1211, 6027, 3660, 8032, 3215, 12610, 13672, 1829, 1975, 5016, 8315, 23032, 1211, 3615, 8315, 11296, 13672, 1829, 31439, 20588, 30767, 16373, 3215, 23758, 4032, 2423, 36953, 19446, 1975, 5016, 8315, 37893, 6225, 9640, 5172, 9957, 11296, 1392, 6156, 39319, 8315, 29538, 2423, 36953, 10874, 1829, 3555, 8315, 11296, 47525, 1211, 6027, 3660, 21797, 3175, 37495, 22653, 29538, 9673, 3615, 18513, 37977, 23758, 20449, 32887, 5172, 4032, 23758, 20449, 32887, 5172, 4724, 3794, 23758, 37893, 20449, 32887, 5172], "avg_logprob": -0.22970210057552728, "compression_ratio": 1.8193832599118942, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 1921.39, "end": 1921.67, "word": "إيش", "probability": 0.6611531575520834}, {"start": 1921.67, "end": 1921.97, "word": " القانون", "probability": 0.978515625}, {"start": 1921.97, "end": 1922.07, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.717041015625}, {"start": 1922.07, "end": 1922.83, "word": " بيحكي", "probability": 0.98251953125}, {"start": 1922.83, "end": 1923.43, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.49072265625}, {"start": 1923.43, "end": 1923.89, "word": " RT", "probability": 0.68115234375}, {"start": 1923.89, "end": 1924.51, "word": " the", "probability": 0.2313232421875}, {"start": 1924.51, "end": 1925.09, "word": " expected", "probability": 0.92626953125}, {"start": 1925.09, "end": 1926.69, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.1929931640625}, {"start": 1926.69, "end": 1927.47, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.8876953125}, {"start": 1927.47, "end": 1927.71, "word": " the", "probability": 0.734375}, {"start": 1927.71, "end": 1928.27, "word": " actual", "probability": 0.748046875}, {"start": 1928.27, "end": 1931.61, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.1839599609375}, {"start": 1931.61, "end": 1933.91, "word": " expected", "probability": 0.7744140625}, {"start": 1933.91, "end": 1934.79, "word": " توقع", "probability": 0.7403157552083334}, {"start": 1934.79, "end": 1935.27, "word": " بدلالة", "probability": 0.85625}, {"start": 1935.27, "end": 1935.47, "word": " هدول", "probability": 0.72998046875}, {"start": 1935.47, "end": 1935.59, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.966064453125}, {"start": 1935.59, "end": 1935.69, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.7989095052083334}, {"start": 1935.69, "end": 1936.29, "word": " طلعناها", "probability": 0.98544921875}, {"start": 1936.29, "end": 1937.19, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.917724609375}, {"start": 1937.19, "end": 1937.29, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.8896484375}, {"start": 1937.29, "end": 1937.51, "word": " Alpha", "probability": 0.5322265625}, {"start": 1937.51, "end": 1937.89, "word": " زائد", "probability": 0.752685546875}, {"start": 1937.89, "end": 1938.09, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.316650390625}, {"start": 1938.09, "end": 1938.19, "word": " و", "probability": 0.40283203125}, {"start": 1938.19, "end": 1938.27, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.71923828125}, {"start": 1938.27, "end": 1938.43, "word": " ET", "probability": 0.556640625}, {"start": 1938.43, "end": 1938.57, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.62255859375}, {"start": 1938.57, "end": 1938.65, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8138834635416666}, {"start": 1938.65, "end": 1938.81, "word": " مش", "probability": 0.9970703125}, {"start": 1938.81, "end": 1939.27, "word": " عارفينها", "probability": 0.99521484375}, {"start": 1939.27, "end": 1940.87, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.69287109375}, {"start": 1940.87, "end": 1942.37, "word": " فاحنا", "probability": 0.8767903645833334}, {"start": 1942.37, "end": 1942.65, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.465087890625}, {"start": 1942.65, "end": 1942.75, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.974609375}, {"start": 1942.75, "end": 1942.95, "word": " ET", "probability": 0.94482421875}, {"start": 1942.95, "end": 1943.41, "word": " جيبناها", "probability": 0.91806640625}, {"start": 1943.41, "end": 1943.89, "word": " بدلالة", "probability": 0.9222412109375}, {"start": 1943.89, "end": 1944.29, "word": " RT", "probability": 0.98193359375}, {"start": 1944.29, "end": 1944.75, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.9755859375}, {"start": 1944.75, "end": 1945.63, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.915771484375}, {"start": 1945.63, "end": 1946.07, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.84326171875}, {"start": 1946.07, "end": 1946.83, "word": " المعادلة", "probability": 0.9871826171875}, {"start": 1946.83, "end": 1947.51, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.73974609375}, {"start": 1947.51, "end": 1948.03, "word": " معروف", "probability": 0.9943033854166666}, {"start": 1948.03, "end": 1948.83, "word": " و", "probability": 0.5673828125}, {"start": 1948.83, "end": 1949.05, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.94921875}, {"start": 1949.05, "end": 1949.53, "word": " معروف", "probability": 0.99169921875}, {"start": 1949.53, "end": 1949.75, "word": " بس", "probability": 0.955078125}, {"start": 1949.75, "end": 1949.91, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.96337890625}, {"start": 1949.91, "end": 1950.07, "word": " مش", "probability": 0.98095703125}, {"start": 1950.07, "end": 1950.49, "word": " معروف", "probability": 0.9921875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 75, "seek": 198092, "start": 1953.98, "end": 1980.92, "text": "طبعا فبنجيب و نجيب ال AT و نجيب الدلالة هذه هذي ال RT معطيك إياها و Alpha هذي معطيك إياها فبنجيب ال AT هذي هذي نفسها هذي .. هذي لازم أولا نطبق هذي و بعدها نطبق هذي عشان نجيب هذي طبعا بكفي هذي و ان شاء الله الدرجة هيكمل", "tokens": [9566, 3555, 3615, 995, 6156, 3555, 1863, 7435, 1829, 3555, 4032, 8717, 7435, 1829, 3555, 2423, 8872, 4032, 8717, 7435, 1829, 3555, 32748, 1211, 6027, 3660, 8032, 8848, 3224, 8032, 8848, 1829, 2423, 21797, 20449, 9566, 1829, 4117, 11933, 25528, 11296, 4032, 20588, 8032, 8848, 1829, 20449, 9566, 1829, 4117, 11933, 25528, 11296, 6156, 3555, 1863, 7435, 1829, 3555, 2423, 8872, 8032, 8848, 1829, 8032, 8848, 1829, 8717, 36178, 11296, 8032, 8848, 1829, 4386, 8032, 8848, 1829, 5296, 31377, 2304, 5551, 12610, 995, 8717, 9566, 3555, 4587, 8032, 8848, 1829, 4032, 39182, 11296, 8717, 9566, 3555, 4587, 8032, 8848, 1829, 6225, 8592, 7649, 8717, 7435, 1829, 3555, 8032, 8848, 1829, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 4724, 4117, 41185, 8032, 8848, 1829, 4032, 16472, 13412, 16606, 21984, 32748, 47341, 3660, 39896, 24793, 1211], "avg_logprob": -0.28172347401127673, "compression_ratio": 2.0380434782608696, "no_speech_prob": 7.152557373046875e-07, "words": [{"start": 1953.9799999999998, "end": 1954.6599999999999, "word": "طبعا", "probability": 0.81121826171875}, {"start": 1954.6599999999999, "end": 1955.34, "word": " فبنجيب", "probability": 0.794189453125}, {"start": 1955.34, "end": 1955.42, "word": " و", "probability": 0.58251953125}, {"start": 1955.42, "end": 1955.68, "word": " نجيب", "probability": 0.9100341796875}, {"start": 1955.68, "end": 1955.84, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.5302734375}, {"start": 1955.84, "end": 1956.12, "word": " AT", "probability": 0.462890625}, {"start": 1956.12, "end": 1956.34, "word": " و", "probability": 0.42041015625}, {"start": 1956.34, "end": 1956.5, "word": " نجيب", "probability": 0.89453125}, {"start": 1956.5, "end": 1956.9, "word": " الدلالة", "probability": 0.5526123046875}, {"start": 1956.9, "end": 1957.16, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.4502766927083333}, {"start": 1957.16, "end": 1957.5, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.658203125}, {"start": 1957.5, "end": 1957.58, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.8203125}, {"start": 1957.58, "end": 1957.94, "word": " RT", "probability": 0.93017578125}, {"start": 1957.94, "end": 1959.22, "word": " معطيك", "probability": 0.643035888671875}, {"start": 1959.22, "end": 1959.46, "word": " إياها", "probability": 0.8583984375}, {"start": 1959.46, "end": 1960.06, "word": " و", "probability": 0.81494140625}, {"start": 1960.06, "end": 1960.44, "word": " Alpha", "probability": 0.51953125}, {"start": 1960.44, "end": 1961.14, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.7941080729166666}, {"start": 1961.14, "end": 1961.92, "word": " معطيك", "probability": 0.951171875}, {"start": 1961.92, "end": 1962.46, "word": " إياها", "probability": 0.9767252604166666}, {"start": 1962.46, "end": 1963.28, "word": " فبنجيب", "probability": 0.9662272135416666}, {"start": 1963.28, "end": 1963.38, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 1963.38, "end": 1963.62, "word": " AT", "probability": 0.841796875}, {"start": 1963.62, "end": 1969.24, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.7813313802083334}, {"start": 1969.24, "end": 1969.62, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.7908528645833334}, {"start": 1969.62, "end": 1970.04, "word": " نفسها", "probability": 0.9832356770833334}, {"start": 1970.04, "end": 1971.9, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.8504231770833334}, {"start": 1971.9, "end": 1971.96, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.2890625}, {"start": 1971.96, "end": 1972.5, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.9098307291666666}, {"start": 1972.5, "end": 1973.26, "word": " لازم", "probability": 0.9249674479166666}, {"start": 1973.26, "end": 1973.56, "word": " أولا", "probability": 0.79248046875}, {"start": 1973.56, "end": 1973.96, "word": " نطبق", "probability": 0.844482421875}, {"start": 1973.96, "end": 1974.2, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.81494140625}, {"start": 1974.2, "end": 1974.28, "word": " و", "probability": 0.51611328125}, {"start": 1974.28, "end": 1974.44, "word": " بعدها", "probability": 0.722900390625}, {"start": 1974.44, "end": 1974.78, "word": " نطبق", "probability": 0.9874267578125}, {"start": 1974.78, "end": 1975.1, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.9072265625}, {"start": 1975.1, "end": 1975.32, "word": " عشان", "probability": 0.9461263020833334}, {"start": 1975.32, "end": 1975.56, "word": " نجيب", "probability": 0.9915771484375}, {"start": 1975.56, "end": 1975.72, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.8714192708333334}, {"start": 1975.72, "end": 1977.24, "word": " طبعا", "probability": 0.8548583984375}, {"start": 1977.24, "end": 1978.48, "word": " بكفي", "probability": 0.8082682291666666}, {"start": 1978.48, "end": 1979.28, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.552734375}, {"start": 1979.28, "end": 1979.58, "word": " و", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 1979.58, "end": 1979.92, "word": " ان", "probability": 0.548828125}, {"start": 1979.92, "end": 1980.06, "word": " شاء", "probability": 0.982177734375}, {"start": 1980.06, "end": 1980.12, "word": " الله", "probability": 0.9462890625}, {"start": 1980.12, "end": 1980.6, "word": " الدرجة", "probability": 0.5036214192708334}, {"start": 1980.6, "end": 1980.92, "word": " هيكمل", "probability": 0.6003824869791666}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 1981.77675, "duration_after_vad": 1884.5781249999945}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..359ce3f072376f9d0df0eb86cf073d76b607722b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1783 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:25,070
+مرة ساعتين كنا نحكي في موضوع ال .. أنواع ال .. ال
+
+2
+00:00:25,070 --> 00:00:27,870
+order markets وحكينا فيه نوعين رئيسيين في ال order
+
+3
+00:00:27,870 --> 00:00:31,930
+markets، ال market order وحكينا ال price 
+
+4
+00:00:31,930 --> 00:00:36,650
+contingent order، خلينا نحكي على ال .. ال price 
+
+5
+00:00:36,650 --> 00:00:40,370
+contingent order، أنا بعتقد أنه أعطيتكم مثال عليه
+
+6
+00:00:40,370 --> 00:00:43,720
+لما حكينا على ال mobile، لما حكينا عن الموضوع ال
+
+7
+00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:49,080
+mobile، نشتري ونبدأ في بيع وبعدين بيحصل عملية
+
+8
+00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,440
+الشراء فبنعمل فيه شغل اسمه stop buy order و stop
+
+9
+00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:57,580
+sell order، تمام هذا الكلام احنا شرحناه هلأ بعد
+
+10
+00:00:57,580 --> 00:01:01,180
+الموجود، نحكي عن ال trading mechanisms، ال trading
+
+11
+00:01:01,180 --> 00:01:01,720
+mechanisms
+
+12
+00:01:06,650 --> 00:01:11,950
+بتعني أنظمة التعامل بالأسواق المالية trading 
+
+13
+00:01:11,950 --> 00:01:17,910
+mechanisms اللي هي صفحة 15 على ال slides trading
+
+14
+00:01:17,910 --> 00:01:23,730
+mechanisms، في trading mechanisms كيف الأسواق
+
+15
+00:01:23,730 --> 00:01:29,370
+المالية بتتم تنظيمها، حكينا في ال dealer markets 
+
+16
+00:01:29,370 --> 00:01:33,430
+اللي هو أسواق ال dealers وعرفين احنا ال dealers 
+
+17
+00:01:33,430 --> 00:01:36,030
+market إنهم بيبيعوا بيشتروا من المخزون تبعهم
+
+18
+00:01:36,030 --> 00:01:41,110
+inventory، okay طبعا
+
+19
+00:01:41,110 --> 00:01:47,050
+أهم سوق ال dealer market هو سوق نازداك، نازداك، نازداك
+
+20
+00:01:47,050 --> 00:01:54,590
+مش المؤشر، اسمه سوق نازداك، okay، ال nasdaq هو سوق بين
+
+21
+00:01:54,590 --> 00:02:00,280
+ال dealers، يعني ما يكونش في علاقة بين ال nasdaq أو
+
+22
+00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,300
+بين ال dealers الموجودين بالناس ده كمع اللي هو ال
+
+23
+00:02:03,300 --> 00:02:06,460
+real financial market، هم بيبيعوا بيشتروا بين بعض
+
+24
+00:02:06,460 --> 00:02:09,800
+ال dealers، يعني أي investors بدو يشتري أو يبيع ب
+
+25
+00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:15,860
+.. من خلال ال dealers، okay، فهذا بيسموه يعني زي
+
+26
+00:02:15,860 --> 00:02:19,100
+احنا بنحكي مثلا سوق الدلالين مثلا أو ال .. بيكونوا
+
+27
+00:02:19,100 --> 00:02:22,940
+سوق بيناتهم مع بعض هم يعني مثلا خلنا نحكي الخان
+
+28
+00:02:22,940 --> 00:02:26,930
+اللي في السوق هذا، في سوق فراس الصبح يعني الناس يمكن
+
+29
+00:02:26,930 --> 00:02:29,170
+الساعة تلاتة أو الساعة أربعة الصبح بيروحوا على
+
+30
+00:02:29,170 --> 00:02:32,750
+السوق اللي هو الخان، في الخان فيه dealers بيكونوا
+
+31
+00:02:32,750 --> 00:02:36,970
+فال dealers هم بيبيعوا وبيشتروا لبعض من بعض فال
+
+32
+00:02:36,970 --> 00:02:39,850
+investors أو الناس ال individual زيّك وزيك ممنوع
+
+33
+00:02:39,850 --> 00:02:43,650
+إنهم يدخلوا في هذا المكان، فهم بتعاملوا لو بدهم
+
+34
+00:02:43,650 --> 00:02:46,110
+يشتريوا وبيبيعوا من ال dealer بعد ما يخلص السوق
+
+35
+00:02:46,110 --> 00:02:48,250
+هذا فيروحوا هم بيشتغلوا مع ال .. بيشتروا و
+
+36
+00:02:48,250 --> 00:02:53,450
+بيبيعوا، فالنازداك هو من أكبر الأسواق المالية لأسواق
+
+37
+00:02:53,450 --> 00:02:57,570
+ال dealers، هم أكبر سوق موجود في .. في العالم
+
+38
+00:02:57,570 --> 00:03:05,630
+بتعامله من خلال ال dealers، okay؟ في كمان سوق New
+
+39
+00:03:05,630 --> 00:03:08,670
+York Stock Exchange، لأ New York Stock Exchange هو
+
+40
+00:03:08,670 --> 00:03:12,090
+مش .. مش dealer markets، هنحكي في New York Stock
+
+41
+00:03:12,090 --> 00:03:15,830
+Exchange، okay؟
+
+42
+00:03:15,830 --> 00:03:22,150
+في عندنا اللي هو ال ECN، ال electronic communication
+
+43
+00:03:22,150 --> 00:03:28,590
+networks، ال ACMs هي تشبه ال dealer market بالظبط
+
+44
+00:03:28,590 --> 00:03:32,650
+لكن ال networking between the dealers is through
+
+45
+00:03:32,650 --> 00:03:36,450
+the computer system، يعني شبكة الرابط بين ال
+
+46
+00:03:36,450 --> 00:03:41,850
+dealers is the computer system، بدل ما هم ال dealer
+
+47
+00:03:41,850 --> 00:03:46,210
+يُرتقيوا مع بعض، Okay، و .. and they talk to each
+
+48
+00:03:46,210 --> 00:03:50,370
+other physically or face to face، they use their
+
+49
+00:03:50,370 --> 00:03:54,230
+own computer and they can practice the .. the
+
+50
+00:03:54,230 --> 00:03:56,550
+trading through the computer system، they .. they
+
+51
+00:03:56,550 --> 00:04:00,330
+don't need to face .. to face meeting، يعني هم ال
+
+52
+00:04:00,330 --> 00:04:04,430
+dealer اللي هدول ال ACN's هي شبكات إلكترونية بتربط
+
+53
+00:04:04,430 --> 00:04:10,070
+ال .. ال dealer، في بعضهم بدل ما هم ي ..يعني
+
+54
+00:04:10,070 --> 00:04:15,570
+يلتقيوا في مكان physically جسديا face to face فهم
+
+55
+00:04:15,570 --> 00:04:19,070
+بيستخدموا الأنظمة الإلكترونية، النظام الإلكتروني
+
+56
+00:04:19,070 --> 00:04:25,610
+يعني مثلا لو كان عندي أنا هنا investor بتعامل مع
+
+57
+00:04:25,610 --> 00:04:28,510
+.. مع سوق ال ACN's اللي هو Electronic
+
+58
+00:04:28,510 --> 00:04:33,450
+Communication Networks فهو في .. بيكون عنده شبكة
+
+59
+00:04:33,450 --> 00:04:37,430
+جهاز حاسوب، هذا الجهاز الحاسوب is connected with the
+
+60
+00:04:37,430 --> 00:04:42,800
+dealer، Okay، and the dealer is connected with other
+
+61
+00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:46,740
+dealer، So if this guy want to buy or sell a
+
+62
+00:04:46,740 --> 00:04:50,440
+particular shares، Okay، if this guy wants to buy
+
+63
+00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:54,800
+and sell a particular shares، These orders is go
+
+64
+00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:58,140
+through the networks، يعني مثلا إنه هذا بدي يعمل
+
+65
+00:04:58,140 --> 00:05:06,580
+buy لأسهم for instance Yahoo، So he want to buy and
+
+66
+00:05:06,580 --> 00:05:10,400
+we said if anyone want to buy there is an other
+
+67
+00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,760
+side there is one to sell، يعني إذا كان واحد بده
+
+68
+00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,840
+يشتري في واحد على الطرف الآخر بيكون بده يبيع وهذا
+
+69
+00:05:16,840 --> 00:05:20,260
+بيتعامل مع ال dealer، هذه ال buy تبعت هذا الشخص
+
+70
+00:05:20,260 --> 00:05:24,000
+اللي بتظهر عند ال dealer تبعته، ال will appear in
+
+71
+00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:29,080
+other people computers، يعني إذا هذا بده يشتري صحيح
+
+72
+00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,800
+هو بيتعامل مع ال dealer هذا لكن هتظهر الشراء هتظهر
+
+73
+00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:37,100
+عند الآخرين على ال network، so anybody is
+
+74
+00:05:37,100 --> 00:05:40,860
+interested on selling this، يعني إذا أي واحد معني
+
+75
+00:05:40,860 --> 00:05:46,180
+بيبعه فهيصير البيع لهذا الشخص، يعني مش شرط إنه احنا
+
+76
+00:05:46,180 --> 00:05:49,580
+فقط إذا احنا بدنا نشتري من dealer معين إنه يتم
+
+77
+00:05:49,580 --> 00:05:52,280
+تنفيذ الصفقة من هذا ال dealer، ممكن تنفيذ الصفقة
+
+78
+00:05:52,280 --> 00:05:57,060
+عبر other dealers، other dealers وهم يشتريوا يعني
+
+79
+00:05:57,060 --> 00:06:01,520
+مثلا خلينا نحكي بالبلد يعني لو هذا ال buyer بده
+
+80
+00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:05,750
+يشتري بندورة مثلا خليني أحكي ببساطة فهو بطلب منه، I
+
+81
+00:06:05,750 --> 00:06:10,510
+want to buy مثلا tomatoes اللي هو بندورة هذا ..
+
+82
+00:06:10,510 --> 00:06:14,630
+هدول هيظهر عندهم على الشاشة إنه هذا الشخص بده
+
+83
+00:06:14,630 --> 00:06:18,230
+يشتري بندورة، so other people ممكن هذا ما ينفذش معاه
+
+84
+00:06:18,230 --> 00:06:21,230
+ممكن ال dealer هذا يدخل ويقوله okay I sell you
+
+85
+00:06:21,230 --> 00:06:22,770
+أنا أبيعك، أنا ببيعك
+
+86
+00:06:38,110 --> 00:06:39,510
+فبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتب
+
+87
+00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:50,760
+أه شفافية عالية جدا ويعني مثلا أعطيكم مثال مثلا
+
+88
+00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:56,520
+مرة Hillary Clinton بتاعة بتعرفوا زوجة Hillary
+
+89
+00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,860
+Clinton، الآن هي بس هي كانت زوجة Clinton صح أيام ما
+
+90
+00:06:59,860 --> 00:07:03,740
+كان هو رئيس الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، فكانت عملت
+
+91
+00:07:03,740 --> 00:07:08,550
+شراء فكان كل الناس عرفوا أن هي قاعدة بتشتري because
+
+92
+00:07:08,550 --> 00:07:13,250
+this is ASEAN market، electronic market and each or
+
+93
+00:07:13,250 --> 00:07:15,830
+every single transaction it will be known by
+
+94
+00:07:15,830 --> 00:07:20,170
+others، يعني ما فيش فيها كل واحد معروف مين بيشتري ومين
+
+95
+00:07:20,170 --> 00:07:28,390
+مين بيبيع، highly transparency market، تمام؟ كيف؟
+
+96
+00:07:28,390 --> 00:07:35,750
+أنت مجرد تفتحي حساب عند dealer واحد وتصيري تعملي
+
+97
+00:07:35,750 --> 00:07:36,950
+trade، الكل هيشوفك
+
+98
+00:07:39,850 --> 00:07:42,890
+عرفتي؟ يعني هلأ مثلا أنتِ روحتِ على Bank فلسطين
+
+99
+00:07:42,890 --> 00:07:48,290
+شركة وساطة مثلا وفتحتِ حساب عندهم عشان تشتري أسهم
+
+100
+00:07:48,290 --> 00:07:52,410
+من سوق فلسطين أوراق مالية، هلأ لو أنتِ عملتي order
+
+101
+00:07:52,410 --> 00:07:56,890
+other people .. other people .. other dealers they
+
+102
+00:07:56,890 --> 00:08:00,550
+will see your order، يعني حتى ال dealers التانية مش
+
+103
+00:08:00,550 --> 00:08:04,070
+شركة وساطة مثلا إذا كانت شركة المتحدة، شركة سهم
+
+104
+00:08:04,070 --> 00:08:07,890
+okay، شركة الوطنية هدول شركات الأوراق المالية أو ال
+
+105
+00:08:07,890 --> 00:08:12,490
+dealers، هيشوفوا ال order تبعتك و .. والمفروض مثلا ب
+
+106
+00:08:12,490 --> 00:08:16,230
+.. في London مثلا لو أنتِ حطيتِ باسمك order كل الناس
+
+107
+00:08:16,230 --> 00:08:21,190
+ال .. ال dealers هيشوفوا مين أنتِ وشو اسمك وال ..
+
+108
+00:08:21,190 --> 00:08:25,320
+وقديش عدد الأسهم اللي أنتِ بدكِ إياها، هذه بتعمل high
+
+109
+00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,640
+transparency لل .. للسوق، شوفها فيها عالية كثير
+
+110
+00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,540
+okay، فش .. there is no privacy here، فش خصوصية
+
+111
+00:08:32,540 --> 00:08:37,200
+مافيش .. عشان هيك في بعض العربان مثلا ما بيحبوش
+
+112
+00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:41,140
+يدخلوا في أي الأشياء هذه because some .. some
+
+113
+00:08:41,140 --> 00:08:44,180
+particular people، مش شرط كمان بعض العرب يعني بعض
+
+114
+00:08:44,180 --> 00:08:46,500
+ال .. some particular people، they don't want to ..
+
+115
+00:08:46,500 --> 00:08:49,340
+to engage in this market because it is highly
+
+116
+00:08:49,340 --> 00:08:53,570
+transparency market، لأنه highly transparency، Okay
+
+117
+00:08:53,570 --> 00:08:59,130
+because you have to disclose a particular
+
+118
+00:08:59,130 --> 00:09:07,630
+information about yourself لل dealers، okay، طبعا
+
+119
+00:09:07,630 --> 00:09:13,450
+هذا ال ECMs وحكي .. في أنا شغل اسمه specialist
+
+120
+00:09:13,450 --> 00:09:17,250
+markets and I explained two .. two meetings before
+
+121
+00:09:17,250 --> 00:09:20,110
+I explained what it means specialist markets، ال
+
+122
+00:09:20,110 --> 00:09:23,670
+specialist markets هي بالظبط تشبه السوق بتاع New
+
+123
+00:09:23,670 --> 00:09:27,350
+York Stock Exchange، فأنا أعطيكم مثال لل dealer
+
+124
+00:09:27,350 --> 00:09:30,550
+market هي ال nasdaq وال specialist market هم
+
+125
+00:09:30,550 --> 00:09:33,770
+الموجودين في New York Stock Exchange، هلأ how this
+
+126
+00:09:33,770 --> 00:09:37,290
+كيف بيشتغل هذا ال market is market working 
+
+127
+00:09:37,290 --> 00:09:41,590
+different story than the dealer market كيف هذا
+
+128
+00:09:41,590 --> 00:09:45,010
+السوق بيشتغل طريقة تختلف absolutely different than
+
+129
+00:09:45,010 --> 00:09:48,940
+the dealer market طريقة بتخلف تماما عن ال
+
+130
+00:09:48,940 --> 00:09:52,160
+dealer market هلا لو أنتم روحتوا الساعة أربعة
+
+131
+00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:57,640
+مثلا اليوم you open the BBC for instance or CNN or
+
+132
+00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:01,260
+Bloomberg just go to the Bloomberg على ال TV بتاعة
+
+133
+00:10:01,260 --> 00:10:04,260
+ال Bloomberg at four o'clock today just open the
+
+134
+00:10:04,260 --> 00:10:08,540
+channel افتحوا قناة ال Bloomberg okay اللي هي ال
+
+135
+00:10:08,540 --> 00:10:14,930
+Bloomberg is specialized in investments
+
+136
+00:10:14,930 --> 00:10:19,430
+and specialized in business يعني أنا كل يوم الصبح
+
+137
+00:10:19,430 --> 00:10:23,370
+I'm listening to Bloomberg and I'm watching some
+
+138
+00:10:23,370 --> 00:10:26,870
+particular reports in Bloomberg هاي Bloomberg
+
+139
+00:10:26,870 --> 00:10:29,410
+متخصصين بال financial market just this specialized
+
+140
+00:10:29,410 --> 00:10:33,350
+in business and financial market هلأ اليوم الساعة
+
+141
+00:10:33,350 --> 00:10:37,870
+أربعة افتحوا Bloomberg هيجي رجع ال هيك at four و
+
+142
+00:10:37,870 --> 00:10:41,740
+معاها مطرقة okay I'm talking about now about the
+
+143
+00:10:41,740 --> 00:10:46,060
+New York Stock Exchange and he hit the مطرقة on the
+
+144
+00:10:46,060 --> 00:10:48,280
+table it means declaring the starting of the
+
+145
+00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:53,360
+financial markets ببدأ إعلان افتتاح السوق المالي
+
+146
+00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:57,520
+هذا النوع هذا النوع من الأسواق المالية هو بيسموه
+
+147
+00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,960
+specialist markets لو أنتم بتتفرجوا على ال ..
+
+148
+00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,120
+just spend five minutes watching to the reports of
+
+149
+00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,780
+the Bloomberg طلعوا عن ال report فبتجدوا في ناس في
+
+150
+00:11:07,780 --> 00:11:08,740
+قاعة كبيرة هيك
+
+151
+00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:18,700
+this is a very interesting ففي القاعة مثلا okay
+
+152
+00:11:18,700 --> 00:11:21,740
+بقاعة
+
+153
+00:11:21,740 --> 00:11:26,180
+كبيرة في هون seats أظن شرحتلكم أنا seats مقاعد
+
+154
+00:11:26,180 --> 00:11:32,760
+okay و هون في ناس بيحكوا مع بعض هدول الناس بيحكوا
+
+155
+00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:37,570
+مع بعض بطريقة الإشارات okay يعني مثلا بننافس صفقة
+
+156
+00:11:37,570 --> 00:11:42,610
+.. صفقة معينة فهدول مهمتهم to negotiate يفعوضوا
+
+157
+00:11:43,750 --> 00:11:47,470
+okay بعدين هدول الموجودين ع ال seats هم they
+
+158
+00:11:47,470 --> 00:11:50,550
+receive orders from these people يعني بياخدوا
+
+159
+00:11:50,550 --> 00:11:53,930
+orders من ال people اللي عاملين هذا يعني مثلا واحد
+
+160
+00:11:53,930 --> 00:11:58,570
+بيحكيله أنا بدي اشتري IBM هدول الناس بيحكوا مع بعض
+
+161
+00:11:58,570 --> 00:12:02,270
+بدهم يشتريوا IBM فهذا هو specialist في IBM
+
+162
+00:12:02,270 --> 00:12:05,190
+فبيعطوله إشارة أنه احنا بنشتري IBM فهو لازم يعطيهم
+
+163
+00:12:05,190 --> 00:12:08,760
+السعر يقوله مديش السعر why they call this
+
+164
+00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:14,300
+specialist market because in this market dealers
+
+165
+00:12:14,300 --> 00:12:18,020
+are specialized in a particular stocks يعني ال
+
+166
+00:12:18,020 --> 00:12:21,420
+dealers الموجودين هنا هم متخصصين ب particular
+
+167
+00:12:21,420 --> 00:12:24,880
+stock يعني ما نقدر احنا نشتري ال IBM من other
+
+168
+00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:31,980
+specialists so you have to buy and sell IBM from a
+
+169
+00:12:31,980 --> 00:12:36,580
+particular specialist يعني مثلا إذا هذا ببيع IBM
+
+170
+00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:40,680
+هذا بيبيع ياهو ما نقدر احنا نشتري ياهو من هاد
+
+171
+00:12:40,680 --> 00:12:44,840
+نشتري من IBM طب شو دور هدول هدول هم بي .. بي .. بي
+
+172
+00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,680
+.. they negotiate on the price and these people
+
+173
+00:12:47,680 --> 00:12:51,220
+that are sitting on the seats are receiving orders
+
+174
+00:12:51,220 --> 00:12:54,660
+from outside هدول الناس اللي بيجلسوا على المقاعة
+
+175
+00:12:54,660 --> 00:12:58,380
+they are receiving orders from outside so from
+
+176
+00:12:58,380 --> 00:13:01,980
+where .. from whom they are receiving orders they
+
+177
+00:13:01,980 --> 00:13:06,940
+receive orders from the dealers outside، هلأ احنا
+
+178
+00:13:06,940 --> 00:13:09,920
+حكينا عن ال dealers outside، this is off the
+
+179
+00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:15,040
+market، this is in the market وهناك نتوارك مرتبط
+
+180
+00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:22,380
+بشركة مخدمة في السوق مع شركة مخدمة في السوق لذلك
+
+181
+00:13:22,380 --> 00:13:25,720
+الناس اللي مقعدة هنا تحصل على أمراض من خلال هاتفين
+
+182
+00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:30,020
+أو إيميالين أو رسائل تكتبية من خلال إتصالات
+
+183
+00:13:30,020 --> 00:13:34,980
+إلكترونية الانترنت وهم يفعلون هذه العملية الناس
+
+184
+00:13:34,980 --> 00:13:38,910
+اللي عالقين هنا مغضبين جدا جدا جدا okay الناس اللي
+
+185
+00:13:38,910 --> 00:13:41,890
+بيشتغلوا هنا هم بيكونوا كتير مشغولين okay and
+
+186
+00:13:41,890 --> 00:13:44,890
+receiving orders من ال .. ال outside و receiving
+
+187
+00:13:44,890 --> 00:13:49,330
+orders من ال people الموجودين هنا okay هذا is a
+
+188
+00:13:49,330 --> 00:13:56,810
+very .. very .. very large markets هذا ال market
+
+189
+00:13:56,810 --> 00:14:00,630
+اللي هو بيسموه specialist markets والمثال طبعا ال
+
+190
+00:14:00,630 --> 00:14:03,550
+specialist markets هو ال New York Stock Exchange
+
+191
+00:14:03,550 --> 00:14:07,750
+the importance of specialists .. the importance of
+
+192
+00:14:07,750 --> 00:14:12,770
+specialists هي these people are the .. the best
+
+193
+00:14:12,770 --> 00:14:16,110
+people to know the true price يعني هم أكثر ناس
+
+194
+00:14:16,110 --> 00:14:21,010
+بيعرفوا السعر الحقيقي ل .. لل .. لل .. لل stock
+
+195
+00:14:21,010 --> 00:14:24,830
+because بقدروا هم يعرفوا أداش في supply و أداش في
+
+196
+00:14:24,830 --> 00:14:31,140
+demand قداش عرضوا طلب هدول
+
+197
+00:14:31,140 --> 00:14:33,920
+الناس هما ال market makers هما اللي بيحددوا السوق
+
+198
+00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:41,460
+هدول الناس are market makers because they know
+
+199
+00:14:41,460 --> 00:14:47,820
+what is the demand and supply on a particular
+
+200
+00:14:47,820 --> 00:14:51,000
+stock let's give you example and pay attention for
+
+201
+00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,310
+this example خليني أعطيكم مثال how they determine
+
+202
+00:14:54,310 --> 00:15:00,850
+the price كيف هم بيحددوا السعر خليني آخذ
+
+203
+00:15:00,850 --> 00:15:05,250
+specialist معين واحد من ال specialized people and
+
+204
+00:15:05,250 --> 00:15:11,650
+focus how he manage his inventory ال specialist ..
+
+205
+00:15:11,650 --> 00:15:15,210
+خليني أحكي specialist number one specialist
+
+206
+00:15:15,210 --> 00:15:21,220
+number one is selling and buying google بيبيع
+
+207
+00:15:21,220 --> 00:15:26,020
+وبيشتري في إيش؟ في google so he or she is
+
+208
+00:15:26,020 --> 00:15:29,000
+specialized in google okay be attention here
+
+209
+00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,900
+please okay والله if you read it thousand times in
+
+210
+00:15:31,900 --> 00:15:34,600
+your textbook you don't understand so be careful
+
+211
+00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:40,820
+with this انتبهوا هنا شوية هلأ هذا ال specialist
+
+212
+00:15:40,820 --> 00:15:44,640
+اللي هم الناس الموجودين في ال .. في ال .. في ال
+
+213
+00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,840
+financial market في جوا السوق receiving orders
+
+214
+00:15:49,860 --> 00:15:52,320
+receiving يعني بيستلموا orders buying and selling
+
+215
+00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:58,840
+هلأ هذا عنده inventory خلينا نفترض هذا المخزون
+
+216
+00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:03,760
+number of stock عدد من أسهم خلينا نفكر أن هذا عنده
+
+217
+00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:08,580
+هذا المبلغ أو هذا الرقم من ال stocks مثلا عنده
+
+218
+00:16:08,580 --> 00:16:12,640
+عشرين مليون stock هذا ال dealer أو هذا ال
+
+219
+00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:17,080
+specialist هلأ هذا ال specialist he or she bought
+
+220
+00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:21,720
+in his mind this is the inventory .. the acceptable
+
+221
+00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:25,640
+inventory level حسب الخبرة تبعته هو بيقول أنه
+
+222
+00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,580
+المخزون اللي بلزمني كل يوم بلزمني هيك عشرين مليون
+
+223
+00:16:28,580 --> 00:16:31,540
+يكون عندي ببيع منه و باشت منه يعني زي مثلا أنتم
+
+224
+00:16:31,540 --> 00:16:36,200
+تروحوا على الكزية تبعت ال .. مثلا كزية الطرزي مثلا
+
+225
+00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:40,690
+اللي في شارع التلاتين آخر هذاهو كيف يعمل حسبته؟
+
+226
+00:16:40,690 --> 00:16:44,330
+بيقول أنا مثلا بال .. باليوم ببيعه .. ببيع حوالي
+
+227
+00:16:44,330 --> 00:16:48,470
+مثلا عشرة .. خمسة مليون لتر مثلا أو مثلا خمس ألف
+
+228
+00:16:48,470 --> 00:16:52,850
+لتر so why he keep more than five thousands؟ ليش
+
+229
+00:16:52,850 --> 00:16:57,130
+هو مثلا ي .. يكون عنده أكثر من خمس ألف؟ هذا الرجال
+
+230
+00:16:57,130 --> 00:16:59,810
+specialist عنده twenty million and he think that
+
+231
+00:16:59,810 --> 00:17:04,550
+twenty million is fine طيب هلأ بيصير receiving the
+
+232
+00:17:04,550 --> 00:17:08,190
+orders بصير ال orders تيجي ال orders بتيجي حكينا
+
+233
+00:17:08,190 --> 00:17:11,870
+من الناس الموجودين هون اللي بيعته إشارات و ال
+
+234
+00:17:11,870 --> 00:17:14,810
+orders تيجي من وين من ال dealers اللي برا okay
+
+235
+00:17:14,810 --> 00:17:17,750
+بتصلوا فيه هاي ال specialist قاعد هون and
+
+236
+00:17:17,750 --> 00:17:22,350
+receiving orders هلأ بيصير buy and sell أثناء ال
+
+237
+00:17:22,350 --> 00:17:28,290
+buy و ال sell كان ال buying to the dealers is more
+
+238
+00:17:28,290 --> 00:17:32,570
+than the selling يعني هو باع أكثر من اشتراه فال
+
+239
+00:17:32,570 --> 00:17:37,350
+inventory يزيد ولا ينقص؟ هينقص هيصير ال inventory
+
+240
+00:17:37,350 --> 00:17:41,230
+تطلعه هذا هنا هذا the previous inventory يعني زي
+
+241
+00:17:41,230 --> 00:17:49,630
+خزان المي بنفكر هاي هذا هينزل لهنا طبعا هو إيش؟
+
+242
+00:17:49,630 --> 00:17:55,840
+هينزل هال inventory تبعته شو هيصير فيها هتنزل so in
+
+243
+00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,420
+this case nobody knows, be careful here, this is
+
+244
+00:17:58,420 --> 00:18:01,860
+the .. this is the work, nobody knows what is the
+
+245
+00:18:01,860 --> 00:18:06,100
+inventory level of the specialist محدش بعرف قداش
+
+246
+00:18:06,100 --> 00:18:09,960
+.. قداش عنده مخزون this particular information is
+
+247
+00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,640
+related to the .. this specialist and sometimes
+
+248
+00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,810
+some information is leaking to the dealers بعض
+
+249
+00:18:16,810 --> 00:18:20,330
+المعلومات ممكن leaking يعني تتسرب to the dealers
+
+250
+00:18:20,330 --> 00:18:23,470
+فمين بيكون عنده المعلومات الأساسية هو ال 
+
+251
+00:18:23,470 --> 00:18:27,290
+specialist وبعد هيك اللي هو ال dealers طيب، هلأ 
+
+252
+00:18:27,290 --> 00:18:33,230
+إيش هيسوي؟ إيش هيسوي الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ dealer؟
+
+253
+00:18:33,230 --> 00:18:37,770
+ال specialist؟ هيرفع السعر ولا يخفض السعر؟ هيرفع
+
+254
+00:18:37,770 --> 00:18:44,110
+السعر ليش؟ لأن المخزون تبعه انخفض فهو هيحاول يقلل 
+
+255
+00:18:44,110 --> 00:18:48,210
+الطلب على المخزون تبعه عشان يعمل ويغر الناس أنه
+
+256
+00:18:48,210 --> 00:18:52,150
+أنا بقى أشتري منكم I'm buying فبتحول أن هو يعمل
+
+257
+00:18:52,150 --> 00:18:56,270
+buying okay so he is interested in buying more
+
+258
+00:18:56,270 --> 00:19:01,230
+than selling if he continues in the previous price
+
+259
+00:19:01,230 --> 00:19:04,970
+إذا بقاله استمر على ال previous price so it means
+
+260
+00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:14,780
+الانفجار يتخلص من انفجاره 
+
+261
+00:19:14,780 --> 00:19:22,000
+ولا يوجد عمل فهو شو حيسه هو هيعمل increase لل
+
+262
+00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:27,180
+price فعندما يزيد ال price مصادر موجودين هناك
+
+263
+00:19:27,180 --> 00:19:32,380
+يلاحظون أن المستخدمين يجعلون ال price أعلى لذلك هم
+
+264
+00:19:32,380 --> 00:19:38,520
+مهتمون بالشراء منهفبصيروا هم يروحوا يشتريوا منه to
+
+265
+00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:42,440
+sell to him يعني يبيعوله يبيعوله فلما يبيعوله هو
+
+266
+00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:48,680
+هيشتري فهتيجي الـ what ال inventory هتزيد so again
+
+267
+00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:55,940
+so the now he has inventory more than his level
+
+268
+00:19:55,940 --> 00:19:59,900
+فإيش هيسوي هان؟ هيعمل selling هيعمل selling هينزل
+
+269
+00:19:59,900 --> 00:20:06,390
+ال price طبعا ال price because your level in this
+
+270
+00:20:06,390 --> 00:20:10,050
+in your level I'm giving you example how he or she
+
+271
+00:20:10,050 --> 00:20:12,890
+plays in the prize but sometimes
+
+272
+00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:19,740
+the dealers are smart and if he change the price
+
+273
+00:20:19,740 --> 00:20:23,400
+it means they will understand what is the level of
+
+274
+00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,560
+the dealer of the specialist يعني إذا هو بيـ .. بيـ
+
+275
+00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,600
+.. بيغير و بيبدل في السعر فهو الناس اللي برا هتعرف 
+
+276
+00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,580
+أنه what is the level of the .. of the specialist
+
+277
+00:20:34,580 --> 00:20:40,420
+so in this case and the specialists are smart so
+
+278
+00:20:40,420 --> 00:20:43,520
+they can do different things which is not related
+
+279
+00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:48,080
+to your level يعني هو هيعمل شغلات أخرى مش هيلعب بالـ
+
+280
+00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:52,720
+price هيخل الناس هي اللي تروح تغير السعر بطريقته
+
+281
+00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:58,120
+المخصصة مثلا what he can do is spread the bid ask
+
+282
+00:20:58,120 --> 00:21:05,180
+spread or spread the let's say the narrow and wide
+
+283
+00:21:05,180 --> 00:21:08,880
+the spread between the bid and ask يعني إيش هيعمل؟
+
+284
+00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:13,290
+ال bid and ask بالظبط يا ما بيعمل واسع يا ما بيعمل
+
+285
+00:21:13,290 --> 00:21:18,430
+ضيق فإذا هو is interested فهيعمل narrow down إذا
+
+286
+00:21:18,430 --> 00:21:21,450
+كان interested بده يشتري فهو بيعمل narrow down إذا
+
+287
+00:21:21,450 --> 00:21:25,930
+كان is not interested فبيعمل wide بوسع ال spread
+
+288
+00:21:25,930 --> 00:21:33,350
+and there are other policies it can be done by the
+
+289
+00:21:33,350 --> 00:21:40,230
+specialist to manage the price شوفتوا كيف ال prices
+
+290
+00:21:40,230 --> 00:21:42,830
+بال financial market how it works؟ يعني it doesn't
+
+291
+00:21:42,830 --> 00:21:46,230
+work according what people saying technical
+
+292
+00:21:46,230 --> 00:21:49,850
+analysis and using a chart بعض الناس يعني some ..
+
+293
+00:21:49,850 --> 00:21:53,510
+some .. some people they think the prices follow
+
+294
+00:21:53,510 --> 00:21:58,070
+the chart يعني الناس بتفكر أنه .. أنه ال chart هو
+
+295
+00:21:58,070 --> 00:22:02,270
+اللي بيحرك السعر، روح على شركة البساطة أو روح على
+
+296
+00:22:02,270 --> 00:22:04,890
+اللي هذا أو اسأله، هتلاقي الناس بيقولك اه انا بـ ..
+
+297
+00:22:04,890 --> 00:22:07,430
+إذا فهمت ال chart، إذا أنا .. ممكن أنا أشتري و
+
+298
+00:22:07,430 --> 00:22:10,290
+أبيع، but this is not related، هي the price is
+
+299
+00:22:10,290 --> 00:22:17,500
+related to something else، okay؟ So the specialists
+
+300
+00:22:17,500 --> 00:22:20,740
+here are maintaining .. maintaining the ..
+
+301
+00:22:20,740 --> 00:22:26,100
+maintaining the price aiming that the price
+
+302
+00:22:26,100 --> 00:22:29,980
+represent the true price يعني هدفهم أنه السعر
+
+303
+00:22:29,980 --> 00:22:34,320
+العادل طبعا هذا السعر العادل شايفين فمرات بطلع فوق
+
+304
+00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,740
+السعر و مرات بنزل بس هذا هو السعر العادل according
+
+305
+00:22:36,740 --> 00:22:39,140
+to the inventory of the dealer
+
+306
+00:22:43,890 --> 00:22:49,230
+لما ينخفض .. ينخفض المخزون لما ينخفض المخزون طبعا
+
+307
+00:22:49,230 --> 00:22:59,170
+هو شو روح يسوي؟ هيعمل رفع بالسعر اه
+
+308
+00:22:59,170 --> 00:23:04,590
+فهو إيش روح يسوي؟ هيروح يعمل شغلة تانية هيروح يعمل
+
+309
+00:23:04,590 --> 00:23:08,690
+توسيع لل bid ask script يوسع و يضايق في ال bid ask
+
+310
+00:23:08,690 --> 00:23:11,150
+script فهذه اللي عوبته و إجراء أخرى .. إجراءات
+
+311
+00:23:11,150 --> 00:23:13,350
+أخرى ال number of trades .. في شغلات كتير يعني
+
+312
+00:23:13,350 --> 00:23:17,810
+ممكن هو يسويها حتى أنه يـ .. يروح .. مايخليش الناس
+
+313
+00:23:17,810 --> 00:23:23,770
+تفهم أنه what is his level فهمت كيف؟ يعني مثلا أنا
+
+314
+00:23:23,770 --> 00:23:27,130
+.. مثلا أنا و أنا صاحب مثلا كازية و عشان الناس
+
+315
+00:23:27,130 --> 00:23:31,410
+ماتفهمش أنه عندي مخزون مثلا كتير و أنا هنزل السيارة
+
+316
+00:23:31,410 --> 00:23:33,630
+ماروحش بتفجر مع كام تاكسي بقولهم صفوا على باب
+
+317
+00:23:33,630 --> 00:23:37,430
+الكازية أنه في .. فيش عندي مخزون كأنه فهمتوا عليا
+
+318
+00:23:37,430 --> 00:23:41,190
+كيف؟ فالكل هايشعر اه this guy has no inventory
+
+319
+00:23:41,190 --> 00:23:45,250
+تمويه فهمتوا كيف؟ they are using these policies
+
+320
+00:23:45,250 --> 00:23:50,690
+فممكن هم إيش يسووا يعملوا بدأ .. يعني مثلا هذا في
+
+321
+00:23:50,690 --> 00:23:56,540
+واحد بده يشري مليون سهم okay؟ فبكون في اتفاقيات مع
+
+322
+00:23:56,540 --> 00:23:58,980
+ال dealers مليون سهم ممكن يشريهم في صفقة واحدة
+
+323
+00:23:58,980 --> 00:24:02,360
+بيقولوا لأ تشريهم مش في صفقة واحدة اشري المليون
+
+324
+00:24:02,360 --> 00:24:06,320
+سهم مثلا بعشرة صفقات فالناس بتنالها تشوف oh ten
+
+325
+00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,400
+transactions ten transactions يعني في demand هان
+
+326
+00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:13,760
+لكن هو demand لصفقة واحدة بس so they can do this
+
+327
+00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,400
+and there are other policies when you grow up إن
+
+328
+00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,620
+شاء الله لما تكبرى you will understand all of
+
+329
+00:24:18,620 --> 00:24:22,860
+these things when you grow up in finance لما تكبرى
+
+330
+00:24:22,860 --> 00:24:24,360
+بال finance okay
+
+331
+00:24:27,380 --> 00:24:34,480
+Okay very interesting اه اتفضلي الـ
+
+332
+00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,680
+dealer
+
+333
+00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:42,800
+الـ برا نفس الشغل الـ dealer الـ برا ما
+
+334
+00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:47,320
+هو هذا الشخص من وين هذا له علاقة مباشرة مع السوق
+
+335
+00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:53,700
+فهو بشتري من السوق نفسه okay لكن ما فهمتش بالظبط
+
+336
+00:24:53,700 --> 00:24:54,180
+السؤالك
+
+337
+00:24:59,620 --> 00:25:04,680
+لأ لأ ازاي؟ مين هم ال dealer يعني؟ أنا بحكي عن الـ
+
+338
+00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:10,560
+specialist ال specialist هذا عنده المخزون عنده
+
+339
+00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:16,480
+أسهم الشركات ببيع و بشري فيها okay هلأ هذا اللي
+
+340
+00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:20,560
+ببيعه الاشتراك هو ببيع و بشري لل dealers من برا
+
+341
+00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:26,410
+مرات بياخد منهم و مرات إيش بيعطيهم لكن عنده في حد
+
+342
+00:25:26,410 --> 00:25:32,390
+معين من المخزون، هذا المخزون لا يساوي سفر، هذا لا
+
+343
+00:25:32,390 --> 00:25:37,430
+يساوي سفر، ليش لا يساوي سفر؟ لأنه في ناس برا بدها
+
+344
+00:25:37,430 --> 00:25:41,810
+.. بدها تبيع، فبدا تبيع هو هيشـ .. هو هيشتري، طبعا
+
+345
+00:25:41,810 --> 00:25:45,310
+ال specialists no way، اه تبقي للكلام، and put
+
+346
+00:25:45,310 --> 00:25:49,370
+many lines under no way، no way to tell the
+
+347
+00:25:49,370 --> 00:25:54,180
+dealers there is no buying and selling ما فيش ممكن
+
+348
+00:25:54,180 --> 00:25:58,620
+يقولهم أنا ببيع ولا باشتري ممنوع .. ممنوع يقولهم
+
+349
+00:25:58,620 --> 00:26:02,880
+.. بيسكروله .. بيقولوله ما .. ما عندكش ترخيص he has
+
+350
+00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,880
+to exercise لازم يبيعوا يشتري معهم طبعا شطارته
+
+351
+00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,740
+وين؟ شطارته أنه how to play in the .. in the price
+
+352
+00:26:09,740 --> 00:26:12,980
+how to play in the bid ask spread how to play in
+
+353
+00:26:12,980 --> 00:26:14,880
+the number of trades how to play on the trading
+
+354
+00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,540
+volume how to play blah blah blah blah blah so he
+
+355
+00:26:17,540 --> 00:26:23,470
+has many many policies to do Okay؟ بالأخير نحكيله
+
+356
+00:26:23,470 --> 00:26:26,330
+هذا المخزون بدك تحافظ عليه، بأي طريقة معينة you
+
+357
+00:26:26,330 --> 00:26:32,050
+have to do it، so they are smart بس البارحة كانت
+
+358
+00:26:32,050 --> 00:26:35,250
+مزعجة، يعني كل أسعار الأوراق الرجل كان بيجي
+
+359
+00:26:35,250 --> 00:26:39,690
+أسعاره، يعني هو ما بيجيش و بيعمل، و بيعمل، حتى
+
+360
+00:26:39,690 --> 00:26:44,150
+الآن كلهم .. هم هالأدول كلهم ال dealers بتعاملوا
+
+361
+00:26:44,150 --> 00:26:48,470
+مع one specialist ف if this guy decide to make the
+
+362
+00:26:48,470 --> 00:26:52,990
+price up all of these people they follow him if
+
+363
+00:26:52,990 --> 00:26:57,330
+this guy another guy decide that yahoo to go up it
+
+364
+00:26:57,330 --> 00:26:59,490
+means يعني خليني أعطيكي .. this is a good question
+
+365
+00:26:59,490 --> 00:27:04,990
+هلأ إجينا احنا لاقينا بتاع الياهو غالي كتير، إيش
+
+366
+00:27:04,990 --> 00:27:08,550
+هتسوي أنت؟ مش حاجة .. مش حاجة .. مو لازم تشتري زي
+
+367
+00:27:08,550 --> 00:27:14,900
+.. هتعمل إيه بقى؟ you try to go to the stock that's
+
+368
+00:27:14,900 --> 00:27:20,300
+similar to yahoo هتروحي على شغلة مشابهة يعني مثلا
+
+369
+00:27:20,300 --> 00:27:25,800
+أنت روحتي على ساجلة بتاعة نوودسية and خلينا نحكي
+
+370
+00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:30,120
+you ask your dad to have some sweets and you went
+
+371
+00:27:30,120 --> 00:27:34,180
+there and the shop is closed your dad cannot say
+
+372
+00:27:34,180 --> 00:27:37,260
+to you sorry it's closed he will go to another
+
+373
+00:27:37,260 --> 00:27:41,490
+shop or similar shop فهلا لو احنا هذا الـ .. هلأ الـ
+
+374
+00:27:41,490 --> 00:27:44,910
+price is going up فهيروحوا على شغلة is mimic or
+
+375
+00:27:44,910 --> 00:27:48,770
+copy يهو which is google هلأ بروح على ال google 
+
+376
+00:27:48,770 --> 00:27:51,870
+بتاع ال google is smart he knows this guy is
+
+377
+00:27:51,870 --> 00:27:55,010
+making the price up so he try to make it up but
+
+378
+00:27:55,010 --> 00:27:58,530
+less than the .. less than the .. the .. the يهو
+
+379
+00:27:58,530 --> 00:28:04,640
+فبصير ال .. the prices are going up مع بعض because
+
+380
+00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,040
+people tried لما هذا ال shop مسكرا هيروح تسانى و
+
+381
+00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,120
+بتسالى حتون فعشان هيك هذا بيسمون ال ايه ايش ال co
+
+382
+00:28:10,120 --> 00:28:20,840
+-movement ايش اسمه افهموها هذه بقى co
+
+383
+00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:26,000
+-movement يعني مثلا افهمكوا ال co-movement يعني
+
+384
+00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:30,500
+اللي بيمشوا مع بعض يعني هلا مثلا لينا شوية مشغولة
+
+385
+00:28:30,500 --> 00:28:34,690
+بال .. بال texting people يعني يعني هلأ مثلا لينا و
+
+386
+00:28:34,690 --> 00:28:39,990
+نهلا they are friends فهلأ إذا نهلا غابت ممكن لينا
+
+387
+00:28:39,990 --> 00:28:46,030
+تغيب و العكس صحيح و العكس إيش؟ و العكس صحيح هذا
+
+388
+00:28:46,030 --> 00:28:50,890
+إيش بيسموه؟ بيسموه co-movement فهلأ بالأسواق في ال
+
+389
+00:28:50,890 --> 00:28:53,330
+.. في ال financial market إذا كان فيه سهم is a
+
+390
+00:28:53,330 --> 00:28:58,050
+leader stock فهذا إذا طلع هيطلع مع ال other stocks
+
+391
+00:28:58,050 --> 00:29:03,580
+ليش؟ why؟ يعني إذا كان هذا leader stock مثلا IBM
+
+392
+00:29:03,580 --> 00:29:10,120
+طبعا ال IBM خلاني نحكي انه industrial company
+
+393
+00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:14,780
+خلاني نيجي مثلا بلاش IBM نحكي مثلا شركة ال IT
+
+394
+00:29:14,780 --> 00:29:23,000
+Cisco شركة hardware هلأ هذه اذا طلعت في other
+
+395
+00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,340
+companies هتروح ايش هتسوي الشركة هذه هتاخدهم معاها
+
+396
+00:29:26,930 --> 00:29:30,190
+هتطلعوا معاها ليش؟ لأن some investors if they
+
+397
+00:29:30,190 --> 00:29:34,350
+fail to buy this they try to buy this إذا هم مش
+
+398
+00:29:34,350 --> 00:29:38,040
+قادرين يشتريوا هذه هيروحوا يشتريوا اللي زيها فهتروح
+
+399
+00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:42,180
+الأسعار تمشي مع بعض فهي زي فاطمة asking all the
+
+400
+00:29:42,180 --> 00:29:46,000
+prices going up why because the price moving
+
+401
+00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:49,460
+together بيمشوا مع بعض لأن ال investors they have
+
+402
+00:29:49,460 --> 00:29:53,860
+to buy or they have to sell and vice versa كمان
+
+403
+00:29:53,860 --> 00:29:58,920
+إذا كنت بدك تبيعي فبتضطر كمان أن كل الأسواق تنزل و
+
+404
+00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:02,480
+هذا كمان الجميل فيه أن الأسواق العالمية كمان يعني
+
+405
+00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:06,300
+هلأ مثلا بتشوف إذا New York Stock Exchange ارتفع
+
+406
+00:30:06,300 --> 00:30:10,840
+هتلاقي لندن ارتفعت و Frankfurt هترتفع .. هترتفع
+
+407
+00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:15,000
+okay و ممكن كمان أكثر من هيك إذا مثلا باريستان
+
+408
+00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,640
+السوق exchange ارتفع القاهرة ارتفعت ممكن السوق
+
+409
+00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,280
+الفلسطيني يرتفع السوق عالمان يرتفع و هكذا هاي
+
+410
+00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:24,220
+بيسموه is a co-movement between the markets طبعا
+
+411
+00:30:24,220 --> 00:30:28,500
+مش هذا الإجابة ال .. ال .. ال final answer this is
+
+412
+00:30:28,500 --> 00:30:30,920
+not the final answer the final answer في عندنا
+
+413
+00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,820
+كمان إجابات أخرى أن psychology of the investors
+
+414
+00:30:33,820 --> 00:30:36,620
+هذا هتاخدوها بال behavior of the finance يعني ايش
+
+415
+00:30:36,620 --> 00:30:40,160
+what it means psychology يعني هلأ مثلا انتوا
+
+416
+00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:44,440
+اشتريتوا ساهم في في نيورك و بدأت الأسعار تنخفض
+
+417
+00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:48,720
+فالشخص اللي اللي موجود في لندن قاعد بيشوف نيورك
+
+418
+00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:54,480
+بتنزل فهو هيبيع لأن بخاف انه هو بتعرف لندن هتنزل
+
+419
+00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,100
+اللي في فرانكولتر في في دبي شايفين الأوضاع قاعدة
+
+420
+00:30:57,100 --> 00:31:00,020
+بتنزل غد فهيضطروا كمان هم يبيعوا فهي لأن because
+
+421
+00:31:00,020 --> 00:31:02,480
+psychology نوع من ال .. عارف ايه يعني ال
+
+422
+00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:07,620
+psychology نفسية المستخدمين Okay دي .. هدا هتاخدوها
+
+423
+00:31:07,620 --> 00:31:12,060
+بال financial behavior طبعا هذا ال أنثى اللي
+
+424
+00:31:12,060 --> 00:31:14,780
+حكيناها في New York Stock Exchange بيطبقها New
+
+425
+00:31:14,780 --> 00:31:16,720
+York Stock Exchange اللي هو ال specialist market
+
+426
+00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:22,400
+okay الأنظمة الإلكترونية اللي بتم تطبيقها كيف
+
+427
+00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,760
+بتعاملوا ال specialist كيف بيحكوا مع بعض عبارة عن
+
+428
+00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,760
+أنظمة إلكترونية مثلا زي sober dot ال .. ال orders
+
+429
+00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:35,140
+كلها بتتنفذ إلكترونيا direct plus كل المعاملات تم
+
+430
+00:31:35,140 --> 00:31:37,500
+تطبيقها إلكترونية، there is no intervention by the
+
+431
+00:31:37,500 --> 00:31:43,900
+human being، مافيش تدخل للبشر، يعني هلأ بدك تشتري،
+
+432
+00:31:43,900 --> 00:31:47,990
+مباشرة بتشتري، بخسر من حسابك بالبنك ما تروحش تجيب
+
+433
+00:31:47,990 --> 00:31:51,890
+شكات لحاله هم النظام الإلكتروني بياخد مصاري منك و
+
+434
+00:31:51,890 --> 00:31:54,410
+بيحطهم في حساب الوسيط و بعدين بياخد من حساب الوسيط
+
+435
+00:31:54,410 --> 00:31:58,010
+و بيحطهم بحساب البايع كله is electronic بيجيكي
+
+436
+00:31:58,010 --> 00:32:00,710
+take message بيقولك انه احنا we deducted this
+
+437
+00:32:00,710 --> 00:32:03,230
+amount from your bank account يعني احنا أخدنا هذا
+
+438
+00:32:03,230 --> 00:32:06,330
+الفلوس من حسابك في البنك مافيش a human
+
+439
+00:32:06,330 --> 00:32:09,900
+intervention just people are observing ال people
+
+440
+00:32:09,900 --> 00:32:13,300
+ايش؟ just بلاحظوا and see and they intervene
+
+441
+00:32:13,300 --> 00:32:17,060
+sometimes in the .. in the block trades block
+
+442
+00:32:17,060 --> 00:32:19,480
+trade يعني الصفقات الكبيرة people intervene in
+
+443
+00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:25,120
+these trades الأشخاص بتدخلوا فيها okay حكينا عن ال
+
+444
+00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:29,380
+ECN و حكينا ال major ECN ال nasdaq market flash
+
+445
+00:32:29,380 --> 00:32:33,140
+trading هو نوع من برمجيات الحواسيب اللي بتستخدم
+
+446
+00:32:33,140 --> 00:32:37,480
+flash trading okay نقف عند ال bond trading
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ddfad8c5d0691a7bc6c1580aee7b72b78f29d3a5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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{"start": 356.46, "end": 357.06, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.878662109375}, {"start": 357.06, "end": 357.32, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.984130859375}, {"start": 357.32, "end": 357.68, "word": " خلينا", "probability": 0.6832275390625}, {"start": 357.68, "end": 358.02, "word": " نحكي", "probability": 0.9957275390625}, {"start": 358.02, "end": 358.8, "word": " بالبلد", "probability": 0.7420247395833334}, {"start": 358.8, "end": 359.34, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.8779296875}, {"start": 359.34, "end": 359.84, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.89892578125}, {"start": 359.84, "end": 360.1, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.93896484375}, {"start": 360.1, "end": 360.22, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.97314453125}, {"start": 360.22, "end": 361.22, "word": " buyer", "probability": 0.60595703125}, {"start": 361.22, "end": 361.52, "word": " بده", "probability": 0.66162109375}, {"start": 361.52, "end": 361.76, "word": " يشتري", "probability": 0.878173828125}, {"start": 361.76, 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try to buy this إذا هم مش قادرين يشتريوا هذه هيروحوا يشتريوا اللي زيها", "tokens": [3224, 2655, 9566, 1211, 3615, 14407, 20449, 995, 11296, 32239, 8592, 22807, 5296, 28814, 1863, 3224, 512, 11519, 498, 436, 3061, 281, 2256, 341, 436, 853, 281, 2256, 341, 11933, 15730, 8032, 2304, 37893, 12174, 18513, 2288, 9957, 7251, 8592, 2655, 16572, 14407, 29538, 39896, 32887, 5016, 14407, 7251, 8592, 2655, 16572, 14407, 13672, 1829, 30767, 1829, 11296], "avg_logprob": -0.15320445420378345, "compression_ratio": 1.3972602739726028, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1766.93, "end": 1767.49, "word": "هتطلعوا", "probability": 0.9246419270833334}, {"start": 1767.49, "end": 1767.73, "word": " معاها", "probability": 0.7456868489583334}, {"start": 1767.73, "end": 1768.69, "word": " ليش؟", "probability": 0.7288411458333334}, {"start": 1768.69, "end": 1769.03, "word": " لإنه", "probability": 0.7938232421875}, {"start": 1769.03, "end": 1769.21, "word": " some", "probability": 0.80517578125}, 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the price moving together بيمشوا مع بعض لأن ال investors they have to buy or they have to sell and vice versa كمان إذا كنت بدك تبيعي فبتضطر كمان أن كل الأسواق تنزل و هذا كمان الجميل فيه أن الأسواق العالمية كمان يعني هلأ مثلا بتشوف إذا New York Stock Exchange", "tokens": [5172, 3224, 2655, 32887, 5016, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 46811, 8592, 1829, 20449, 45030, 11242, 6156, 3224, 1829, 30767, 1829, 6156, 41193, 46007, 3365, 439, 264, 7901, 516, 493, 983, 570, 264, 3218, 2684, 1214, 4724, 32640, 8592, 14407, 20449, 45030, 11242, 5296, 33456, 2423, 11519, 436, 362, 281, 2256, 420, 436, 362, 281, 3607, 293, 11964, 25650, 9122, 2304, 7649, 11933, 15730, 9122, 29399, 47525, 4117, 6055, 21292, 3615, 1829, 6156, 3555, 2655, 11242, 9566, 2288, 9122, 2304, 7649, 14739, 28242, 16247, 3794, 14407, 4587, 6055, 1863, 11622, 1211, 4032, 23758, 9122, 2304, 7649, 25724, 2304, 26895, 8978, 3224, 14739, 16247, 3794, 14407, 4587, 18863, 45340, 10632, 9122, 2304, 7649, 37495, 22653, 8032, 1211, 10721, 50113, 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"word": " كمان", "probability": 0.9169921875}, {"start": 1802.28, "end": 1802.48, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.933349609375}, {"start": 1802.48, "end": 1802.72, "word": " هلأ", "probability": 0.74169921875}, {"start": 1802.72, "end": 1802.98, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.951416015625}, {"start": 1802.98, "end": 1803.46, "word": " بتشوف", "probability": 0.8497721354166666}, {"start": 1803.46, "end": 1803.78, "word": " إذا", "probability": 0.725341796875}, {"start": 1803.78, "end": 1803.96, "word": " New", "probability": 0.77392578125}, {"start": 1803.96, "end": 1804.14, "word": " York", "probability": 0.96484375}, {"start": 1804.14, "end": 1804.34, "word": " Stock", "probability": 0.87109375}, {"start": 1804.34, "end": 1804.84, "word": " Exchange", "probability": 0.90771484375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 72, "seek": 180746, "start": 1805.52, "end": 1807.46, "text": "ارتفع هتلاقي لندن ارتفعت", "tokens": [9640, 2655, 5172, 3615, 8032, 2655, 15040, 38436, 5296, 41260, 1863, 1975, 43500, 5172, 34268], "avg_logprob": -0.14599608723074198, "compression_ratio": 0.9574468085106383, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1805.52, "end": 1806.3, "word": "ارتفع", "probability": 0.83221435546875}, {"start": 1806.3, "end": 1806.7, "word": " هتلاقي", "probability": 0.9144287109375}, {"start": 1806.7, "end": 1807.0, "word": " لندن", "probability": 0.83056640625}, {"start": 1807.0, "end": 1807.46, "word": " ارتفعت", "probability": 0.953125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 73, "seek": 183544, "start": 1808.48, "end": 1835.44, "text": "و Frankfurt هترتفع .. هترتفع okay و ممكن كمان اكتر من هيك اذا مثلا باريستان السوق exchange ارتفع القاهرة ارتفعت ممكن السوق الفلسطيني يرتفع السوق عالمان يرتفع و هكذا هاي بيسموه is a co-movement between the markets طبعا مش هذا الإجابة ال .. ال .. ال final answer this is not the final answer the final answer في عندنا كمان إجابات أخرى انه psychology of the investors هذا هتاخدوها بال behavior of the finance", "tokens": [2407, 36530, 8032, 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this", "probability": 0.9296875}, {"start": 1920.71, "end": 1921.09, "word": " amount", "probability": 0.9404296875}, {"start": 1921.09, "end": 1921.37, "word": " from", "probability": 0.91259765625}, {"start": 1921.37, "end": 1921.59, "word": " your", "probability": 0.91162109375}, {"start": 1921.59, "end": 1921.79, "word": " bank", "probability": 0.88671875}, {"start": 1921.79, "end": 1922.19, "word": " account", "probability": 0.9267578125}, {"start": 1922.19, "end": 1922.57, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.919677734375}, {"start": 1922.57, "end": 1922.77, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.97314453125}, {"start": 1922.77, "end": 1923.07, "word": " أخدنا", "probability": 0.896484375}, {"start": 1923.07, "end": 1923.23, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.487060546875}, {"start": 1923.23, "end": 1923.61, "word": " الفلوس", "probability": 0.9588216145833334}, {"start": 1923.61, "end": 1923.95, "word": " من", "probability": 0.99658203125}, {"start": 1923.95, "end": 1924.63, "word": " حسابك", "probability": 0.9940185546875}, {"start": 1924.63, "end": 1924.73, "word": " في", "probability": 0.93017578125}, {"start": 1924.73, "end": 1925.37, "word": " البنك", "probability": 0.7631022135416666}, {"start": 1925.37, "end": 1925.83, "word": " مافيش", "probability": 0.8932291666666666}, {"start": 1925.83, "end": 1926.05, "word": " a", "probability": 0.46142578125}, {"start": 1926.05, "end": 1926.33, "word": " human", "probability": 0.947265625}, {"start": 1926.33, "end": 1926.85, "word": " intervention", "probability": 0.93310546875}, {"start": 1926.85, "end": 1927.63, "word": " just", "probability": 0.7412109375}, {"start": 1927.63, "end": 1928.01, "word": " people", "probability": 0.9755859375}, {"start": 1928.01, "end": 1928.29, "word": " are", "probability": 0.95556640625}, {"start": 1928.29, "end": 1928.73, "word": " observing", "probability": 0.8466796875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 78, "seek": 195748, "start": 1929.5, "end": 1957.48, "text": "ال people ايش؟ just بلاحظوا and see and they intervene sometimes in the .. in the block trades block trade يعني الصفقات الكبيرة people intervene in these trades الأشخاص بتدخلوا فيها okay حكينا عن ال ECN و حكينا ال major ECN ال nasdaq market flash trading هو نوع من برمجيات الحواسيب اللي بتستخدم flash trading okay نقف عند ال bond trading", "tokens": [6027, 561, 1975, 1829, 8592, 22807, 445, 4724, 15040, 5016, 19913, 14407, 293, 536, 293, 436, 30407, 2171, 294, 264, 4386, 294, 264, 3461, 21287, 3461, 4923, 37495, 22653, 31767, 5172, 4587, 9307, 33251, 3555, 48923, 561, 30407, 294, 613, 21287, 16247, 8592, 9778, 33546, 39894, 3215, 9778, 1211, 14407, 8978, 11296, 1392, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 18871, 2423, 19081, 45, 4032, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 2423, 2563, 19081, 45, 2423, 5382, 2675, 80, 2142, 7319, 9529, 31439, 8717, 45367, 9154, 4724, 2288, 2304, 7435, 1829, 9307, 21542, 14407, 3794, 1829, 3555, 13672, 1829, 39894, 14851, 9778, 40448, 7319, 9529, 1392, 8717, 4587, 5172, 43242, 2423, 6086, 9529], "avg_logprob": -0.1885034447416253, "compression_ratio": 1.5985663082437276, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1929.5, "end": 1929.7, "word": "ال", "probability": 0.94970703125}, {"start": 1929.7, "end": 1929.9, "word": " people", "probability": 0.94091796875}, {"start": 1929.9, "end": 1930.4, "word": " ايش؟", "probability": 0.71435546875}, {"start": 1930.4, "end": 1931.3, "word": " just", "probability": 0.5302734375}, {"start": 1931.3, "end": 1931.8, "word": " بلاحظوا", "probability": 0.80146484375}, {"start": 1931.8, "end": 1932.04, "word": " and", "probability": 0.84423828125}, {"start": 1932.04, "end": 1932.3, "word": " see", "probability": 0.495361328125}, {"start": 1932.3, "end": 1932.78, "word": " and", "probability": 0.6845703125}, {"start": 1932.78, "end": 1932.92, "word": " they", "probability": 0.77734375}, {"start": 1932.92, "end": 1933.3, "word": " intervene", "probability": 0.95703125}, {"start": 1933.3, "end": 1934.38, "word": " sometimes", "probability": 0.689453125}, {"start": 1934.38, "end": 1935.18, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9619140625}, {"start": 1935.18, "end": 1935.38, "word": " the", "probability": 0.90478515625}, {"start": 1935.38, "end": 1935.52, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.37353515625}, {"start": 1935.52, "end": 1935.8, "word": " in", "probability": 0.85888671875}, {"start": 1935.8, "end": 1935.96, "word": " the", "probability": 0.93310546875}, {"start": 1935.96, "end": 1936.24, "word": " block", "probability": 0.87744140625}, {"start": 1936.24, "end": 1936.7, "word": " trades", "probability": 0.69580078125}, {"start": 1936.7, "end": 1937.06, "word": " block", "probability": 0.63232421875}, {"start": 1937.06, "end": 1937.4, "word": " trade", "probability": 0.7958984375}, {"start": 1937.4, "end": 1937.58, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.981201171875}, {"start": 1937.58, "end": 1938.08, "word": " الصفقات", "probability": 0.9354248046875}, {"start": 1938.08, "end": 1938.46, "word": " الكبيرة", "probability": 0.921875}, {"start": 1938.46, "end": 1938.74, "word": " people", "probability": 0.8359375}, {"start": 1938.74, "end": 1939.26, "word": " intervene", "probability": 0.97216796875}, {"start": 1939.26, "end": 1939.48, "word": " in", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 1939.48, "end": 1939.8, "word": " these", "probability": 0.85693359375}, {"start": 1939.8, "end": 1940.4, "word": " trades", "probability": 0.94091796875}, {"start": 1940.4, "end": 1941.28, "word": " الأشخاص", "probability": 0.9466552734375}, {"start": 1941.28, "end": 1941.76, "word": " بتدخلوا", "probability": 0.9109375}, {"start": 1941.76, "end": 1942.08, "word": " فيها", "probability": 0.989990234375}, {"start": 1942.08, "end": 1943.9, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.66015625}, {"start": 1943.9, "end": 1944.94, "word": " حكينا", "probability": 0.9835205078125}, {"start": 1944.94, "end": 1945.04, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.5185546875}, {"start": 1945.04, "end": 1945.12, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.89794921875}, {"start": 1945.12, "end": 1945.48, "word": " ECN", "probability": 0.68896484375}, {"start": 1945.48, "end": 1945.84, "word": " و", "probability": 0.66650390625}, {"start": 1945.84, "end": 1946.2, "word": " حكينا", "probability": 0.872314453125}, {"start": 1946.2, "end": 1946.28, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.6572265625}, {"start": 1946.28, "end": 1946.52, "word": " major", "probability": 0.97900390625}, {"start": 1946.52, "end": 1947.08, "word": " ECN", "probability": 0.959716796875}, {"start": 1947.08, "end": 1947.38, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.479736328125}, {"start": 1947.38, "end": 1947.74, "word": " nasdaq", "probability": 0.7510579427083334}, {"start": 1947.74, "end": 1948.16, "word": " market", "probability": 0.78173828125}, {"start": 1948.16, "end": 1949.38, "word": " flash", "probability": 0.53662109375}, {"start": 1949.38, "end": 1949.88, "word": " trading", "probability": 0.87841796875}, {"start": 1949.88, "end": 1950.28, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.9892578125}, {"start": 1950.28, "end": 1950.62, "word": " نوع", "probability": 0.984619140625}, {"start": 1950.62, "end": 1950.84, "word": " من", "probability": 0.99658203125}, {"start": 1950.84, "end": 1951.7, "word": " برمجيات", "probability": 0.9868977864583334}, {"start": 1951.7, "end": 1952.52, "word": " الحواسيب", "probability": 0.8818359375}, {"start": 1952.52, "end": 1952.62, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.760009765625}, {"start": 1952.62, "end": 1953.14, "word": " بتستخدم", "probability": 0.868408203125}, {"start": 1953.14, "end": 1954.0, "word": " flash", "probability": 0.5048828125}, {"start": 1954.0, "end": 1954.5, "word": " trading", "probability": 0.9345703125}, {"start": 1954.5, "end": 1955.34, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.81396484375}, {"start": 1955.34, "end": 1956.54, "word": " نقف", "probability": 0.9495442708333334}, {"start": 1956.54, "end": 1956.76, "word": " عند", "probability": 0.97705078125}, {"start": 1956.76, "end": 1956.88, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.76904296875}, {"start": 1956.88, "end": 1957.06, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.82373046875}, {"start": 1957.06, "end": 1957.48, "word": " trading", "probability": 0.9111328125}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 1958.18525, "duration_after_vad": 1878.7524999999948}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gqq_Fyc5bTk.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gqq_Fyc5bTk.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cd09882c11894b4a278ef7ff275524232b35b9c4
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gqq_Fyc5bTk.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,3023 @@
+1
+00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:25,760
+Okay, بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اليوم هنكمل في ال
+
+2
+00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:31,020
+investments في ال investment policy المرة 
+
+3
+00:00:31,020 --> 00:00:33,340
+الأولى اللي حكينا أنه احنا لازم نتعرف على ال
+
+4
+00:00:33,340 --> 00:00:36,360
+investment objective و نعمل description لل
+
+5
+00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:42,760
+investors و we design the investment policy اليوم
+
+6
+00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:49,480
+طبعا كمان لازم هدول الخمس five processes أو five
+
+7
+00:00:49,480 --> 00:00:55,340
+steps to do asset allocation asset allocation انه
+
+8
+00:00:55,340 --> 00:00:58,960
+احنا كيف بدنا نوزع الاستثمارات تبعتنا او الموارد
+
+9
+00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:04,980
+تبعتنا the first one specify asset classes طب احنا
+
+10
+00:01:04,980 --> 00:01:08,840
+عرفنا ايش ال asset classes يعني الأدوات
+
+11
+00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:13,600
+الاستثمارية يعني في عندنا احنا stocks في عندنا
+
+12
+00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:19,300
+bonds في عندنا treasury bills مثلا ال money markets
+
+13
+00:01:19,300 --> 00:01:21,580
+اجمالا ال money market securities ال money
+
+14
+00:01:21,580 --> 00:01:27,030
+markets, Okay؟ ال stocks في عندها أنواع من ال stocks
+
+15
+00:01:27,030 --> 00:01:30,210
+و ال bonds في عندها أنواع من ال bonds ففي المرحلة
+
+16
+00:01:30,210 --> 00:01:32,610
+الأولى احنا specify asset classes ايش هي ال asset
+
+17
+00:01:32,610 --> 00:01:37,290
+classes ال available عندنا في ال .. في البلد يعني
+
+18
+00:01:37,290 --> 00:01:39,750
+مثلا في السؤال الأول أنا سألتكم إياه في السؤال
+
+19
+00:01:39,750 --> 00:01:45,110
+assignment حكينا لكم evaluate the investment
+
+20
+00:01:45,110 --> 00:01:49,040
+environment in Palestinian authority فانا الهدف ان
+
+21
+00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,540
+اعرف هل انتوا بتقدروا تعرفوا ال asset classes اللي
+
+22
+00:01:51,540 --> 00:01:53,740
+متوفرة available in the Palestinian Authority ولا
+
+23
+00:01:53,740 --> 00:01:59,000
+لأ مابدناش تحكولنا عن البيئة بتاعة فلسطين و البحر
+
+24
+00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,400
+هذا بقى بالزمنة بالزمني the availability of
+
+25
+00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,020
+investments يعني لما واحد بده يعمل investment بده
+
+26
+00:02:04,020 --> 00:02:08,180
+أول شي يحط ال asset classes و بعدين and determine
+
+27
+00:02:08,180 --> 00:02:10,780
+the different types of stocks and if we have bonds
+
+28
+00:02:10,780 --> 00:02:14,180
+if we have money market instruments then after
+
+29
+00:02:14,180 --> 00:02:18,360
+that we specify capital market expectations capital
+
+30
+00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,840
+market expectations evaluate each one بنعمل
+
+31
+00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,000
+evaluation لل stocks مثلا عندنا في ال income
+
+32
+00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:30,940
+stocks أمثلة في عندنا ال growth stocks في عندنا
+
+33
+00:02:30,940 --> 00:02:38,680
+مثلا اللي هو mixed growth and income بنعمل
+
+34
+00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:43,740
+evaluation إيش evaluation؟ بنشوف the future of the
+
+35
+00:02:43,740 --> 00:02:44,100
+stocks
+
+36
+00:02:53,990 --> 00:02:58,510
+بالقارن بين مجموعات مختلفة ثم نقرر أي مجموعة
+
+37
+00:02:58,510 --> 00:03:04,110
+مناسبة للميكروفيا لنا اذا يعني زي ما حكينا اول
+
+38
+00:03:04,110 --> 00:03:06,930
+خطوة specify asset classes نشوف ال asset classes
+
+39
+00:03:06,930 --> 00:03:12,030
+بعدين بنعمل capital market expectations نقرر
+
+40
+00:03:12,030 --> 00:03:14,130
+المستقبل ماهي الممكنة
+
+41
+00:03:16,620 --> 00:03:19,900
+expectations or the possible profits or the which
+
+42
+00:03:19,900 --> 00:03:25,160
+areas is more developed than the other areas يعني
+
+43
+00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:28,040
+احنا بنشوف المجالات الاستثمار متوفرة عندنا بنشوف
+
+44
+00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:32,060
+ايش المستقبل لأي مجال من مجالات الاستثمارات and
+
+45
+00:03:32,060 --> 00:03:37,320
+then we invest in .. in this يعني مثلا في
+
+46
+00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,390
+الاستثمارات اليوم في مجالات الطاقة كتير مهمة يعني
+
+47
+00:03:40,390 --> 00:03:43,550
+اليوم ال investments الاستثمارات في مجال ال .. ال
+
+48
+00:03:43,550 --> 00:03:48,070
+water مجالات الميه برضه كتير مهم الاستثمار فيها
+
+49
+00:03:48,070 --> 00:03:52,850
+اليوم مثلا بالمجالات ال .. ال environments ال
+
+50
+00:03:52,850 --> 00:03:55,970
+environment protections و الشغلات هذه برضه فيه صار
+
+51
+00:03:55,970 --> 00:03:58,810
+ال .. الطاقة البديلة صار في استثمارات قوية فيها
+
+52
+00:03:58,810 --> 00:04:05,930
+okay؟ في مثلا على international environments مثلا
+
+53
+00:04:05,930 --> 00:04:10,000
+ال Africa استثمارات في ال .. في البرازيل في
+
+54
+00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,720
+Bangladesh يعني الصبح أنا كنت بخرق في .. في
+
+55
+00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,360
+Bangladesh بيزيدوا .. بيزيدوا الأجور ل .. للعاملين
+
+56
+00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:21,300
+في .. في مصانع الملابس عارفين أكم واحد بيشتغل في
+
+57
+00:04:21,300 --> 00:04:24,460
+ال .. في Bangladesh في .. في مصانع الملابس؟ أكم
+
+58
+00:04:24,460 --> 00:04:28,160
+بني آدم، أكم عامل؟ عشر، عشرين، متين، اتين ألف،
+
+59
+00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:36,250
+تلتماية ألف؟ كم؟ آه، تلتة مليون تقريبا آه، كيف؟ بال
+
+60
+00:04:36,250 --> 00:04:39,150
+textiles و الشغلات هذه اه و ال fabric industries
+
+61
+00:04:39,150 --> 00:04:42,090
+فبدهم يقرروا أو يقرروا يقرروا او يقرروا يقرروا
+
+62
+00:04:42,090 --> 00:04:43,050
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+63
+00:04:43,050 --> 00:04:43,990
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+64
+00:04:43,990 --> 00:04:45,170
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+65
+00:04:45,170 --> 00:04:47,410
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+66
+00:04:47,410 --> 00:04:55,910
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا ي
+
+67
+00:04:56,260 --> 00:04:59,120
+في مناطق الشرق أسيا كلهم بستثمروا كتير في موضوع
+
+68
+00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,920
+الملابس و ال textile و ال fabric industries فهذه
+
+69
+00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:09,080
+areas are underdeveloped يعني تحت ال .. تحت ال .. و
+
+70
+00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:12,900
+خاصة لأنه بتحتاج إلى في مناطق الشرق أسيا بتحتاج
+
+71
+00:05:12,900 --> 00:05:16,780
+إلى أيدي عاملة كتير يعني لما هم بدهم يصنعوا ملابس
+
+72
+00:05:16,780 --> 00:05:20,640
+بحتاج كتير أي داعي عاملة و في هذه المناطق، في
+
+73
+00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,560
+الهند، في .. في .. في الصين، في بنجالدش، في
+
+74
+00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,800
+باكستان، هدول are good areas for investment in
+
+75
+00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,340
+textiles or textile industries لو احنا رجعنا
+
+76
+00:05:29,340 --> 00:05:33,040
+للخمسينات والستينات أو الأربعينات نجي في ال UK و
+
+77
+00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,980
+في European countries اللي كان textile industries
+
+78
+00:05:36,650 --> 00:05:40,490
+were one of the major influence areas in the
+
+79
+00:05:40,490 --> 00:05:43,530
+investments يعني لو رجعنا لخمسين السبتنات كان ال
+
+80
+00:05:43,530 --> 00:05:46,490
+textile و هاي استثماراتها في أوروبا و في ال .. في
+
+81
+00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:50,130
+ال UK في بريطانيا كانت .. هي ال promising areas
+
+82
+00:05:50,130 --> 00:05:55,690
+فال .. ال areas اللي في ال .. اللي اليوم في الشرق
+
+83
+00:05:55,690 --> 00:06:00,830
+أسيا كانت كتير .. كتير promising areas نعطيكوا في
+
+84
+00:06:00,830 --> 00:06:03,870
+مجالات استثمار في العالم and we are talking about
+
+85
+00:06:03,870 --> 00:06:07,430
+the expected .. expected areas for investment for
+
+86
+00:06:07,430 --> 00:06:11,270
+instance in .. in .. in Africa يعني لو أنتوا
+
+87
+00:06:11,270 --> 00:06:16,090
+روحتوا نيجيريا مثلا in .. in the .. in the
+
+88
+00:06:16,090 --> 00:06:18,810
+industry .. the movies industries صناعة السينما ..
+
+89
+00:06:18,810 --> 00:06:21,750
+cinema industries طبعا في عندنا three .. three
+
+90
+00:06:21,750 --> 00:06:26,370
+main areas in the world invested in .. in cinemas
+
+91
+00:06:26,370 --> 00:06:29,770
+and movies industries يعني تلت أماكن في العالم
+
+92
+00:06:29,770 --> 00:06:34,170
+تنتج السينما في العالم أكبر أماكن لأنك هوليود و
+
+93
+00:06:34,170 --> 00:06:39,770
+بوليود و نيليود طبعا Hollywood احنا نعرفين is in
+
+94
+00:06:39,770 --> 00:06:44,390
+the United States وعنا Duluth in India وفينا Nilud
+
+95
+00:06:44,390 --> 00:06:50,650
+في نيجيريا، اه فهذه areas for .. يعني اليوم اخر ال
+
+96
+00:06:50,650 --> 00:06:55,430
+movies او الأفلام اللي تم تصنيعة هي أغلبها كانت في
+
+97
+00:06:55,430 --> 00:07:01,410
+نيجيريا امكانيات موجودة و رخص ID عاملة و في
+
+98
+00:07:01,410 --> 00:07:05,710
+environment و في بيئة و حتى يعني في بعض مناطق كتير
+
+99
+00:07:05,710 --> 00:07:09,510
+ساحرة في .. في .. في .. في أفريقيا و بتاع دي this
+
+100
+00:07:09,510 --> 00:07:13,310
+is a promising area so .. so when we are looking
+
+101
+00:07:13,310 --> 00:07:16,750
+at the .. the areas of .. to invest we have
+
+102
+00:07:16,750 --> 00:07:20,490
+sometimes we look at the local areas and we may
+
+103
+00:07:20,490 --> 00:07:23,130
+look at the international areas لذلك من المهم أن
+
+104
+00:07:23,130 --> 00:07:28,010
+نستخدم اتفاقات السوق حيث نستخدم مالنا في المجتمع
+
+105
+00:07:28,010 --> 00:07:32,790
+أو في المنطقة أو في المجتمع الدولي ثالثًا، تخلص من
+
+106
+00:07:32,790 --> 00:07:36,550
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+107
+00:07:36,550 --> 00:07:38,150
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+108
+00:07:38,150 --> 00:07:39,710
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+109
+00:07:39,710 --> 00:07:40,590
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+110
+00:07:40,590 --> 00:07:46,530
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+111
+00:07:46,530 --> 00:07:53,560
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص Okay okay we select particular
+
+112
+00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:55,500
+companies here, particular companies here,
+
+113
+00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,700
+particular companies here and we form a
+
+114
+00:07:58,700 --> 00:08:02,940
+portfolio ممكن احنا نكون محفظة استثمارية حسب ال
+
+115
+00:08:02,940 --> 00:08:06,140
+areas اللي فيها استثمار يعني مثلا ممكن احنا شوفنا
+
+116
+00:08:06,140 --> 00:08:10,800
+في .. هعطيكم مثلا ال real estates ال promising
+
+117
+00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:12,800
+area تبع ال real estates في ال united states و في
+
+118
+00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,640
+ال UK و في بعض ال European countries is not
+
+119
+00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:20,020
+promising areas مش promising areas مش يعني مناطق
+
+120
+00:08:20,020 --> 00:08:23,900
+promising واعدة لكن لان شوف احنا بالعالم العربي
+
+121
+00:08:23,900 --> 00:08:28,820
+بتلاقي مثلا في ليبيا في تونس في الدول يعني ال ..
+
+122
+00:08:28,820 --> 00:08:31,880
+ال .. ال spring Arabic countries هنلاقي ان ال ..
+
+123
+00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,720
+ال .. هاي فيها promising areas حتى في فلسطين ان ال
+
+124
+00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:36,900
+promising areas في ال real .. ال real estate
+
+125
+00:08:36,900 --> 00:08:40,840
+industries يعني اللي هو العقارات فالعقارات are 
+
+126
+00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:46,330
+promising area فممكن احنا نستثمر جزء من ال... ال...
+
+127
+00:08:46,330 --> 00:08:50,410
+ال... يعني نحط real asset دائماً ال... ال portfolio
+
+128
+00:08:50,410 --> 00:08:54,810
+تبعتنا ممكن نحط stocks international stocks مثلاً
+
+129
+00:08:54,810 --> 00:08:59,830
+في أفريقيا يعني أعطيكم مثال Vodafone أظن Vodafone
+
+130
+00:08:59,830 --> 00:09:06,370
+استثمرت في... في غانا كان أكثر فرع بيربح لهم في
+
+131
+00:09:06,370 --> 00:09:11,370
+العالم I think اه في غانا أتخيل يعني don't
+
+132
+00:09:11,370 --> 00:09:14,510
+underestimate Africa
+
+133
+00:09:15,460 --> 00:09:20,120
+ما... don't underestimate يعني ما تستهينوا فيها you
+
+134
+00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,040
+can become a millionaire in Africa if you just
+
+135
+00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:25,700
+invest your money it is high risk environments but
+
+136
+00:09:25,700 --> 00:09:28,560
+you can make money in Africa
+
+137
+00:09:32,620 --> 00:09:36,160
+and... so this is... then you derive the efficient
+
+138
+00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,820
+portfolio based on the... you put in this
+
+139
+00:09:38,820 --> 00:09:41,380
+portfolio different asset classes, different
+
+140
+00:09:41,380 --> 00:09:44,940
+investments, you can invest in the... in the real
+
+141
+00:09:44,940 --> 00:09:47,400
+estate, you can invest in gold, you can invest in
+
+142
+00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:51,720
+the... in textile industries, okay؟ يعني زي مثلاً
+
+143
+00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,800
+في Bangladesh، في China، في ال... هدول، كثير
+
+144
+00:09:54,800 --> 00:10:01,560
+promising areas، يعني مناطق أو... مجالات كثير قوية
+
+145
+00:10:01,560 --> 00:10:06,600
+في الاستثمارات في العالم مي فرانسكو هيك استثمارات
+
+146
+00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:13,120
+as promising areas اه الصومال ايش ممكن نستثمر فيها
+
+147
+00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:17,840
+ات... شوفتوا لو يا بايا شفتنا أول... أول محاضرة... أكبر
+
+148
+00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:22,220
+استثمارات في ال... اه اه في ال banana اه شركة...
+
+149
+00:10:22,220 --> 00:10:26,360
+شركة dollar أكبر شركة إنتاج موز في العالم اه
+
+150
+00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:31,920
+الصومال طبعاً... اه الصومال امه بياخد الموز و بيصد
+
+151
+00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:37,080
+... بي... بيصدروه ل... ل... لكافة أنحاء العالم طبعاً
+
+152
+00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,680
+الصومال كمان، لا تنسوا أنه اليوم كمان investment
+
+153
+00:10:39,680 --> 00:10:44,380
+بال security، لا تنسوا، بال security، لا بال
+
+154
+00:10:44,380 --> 00:10:48,220
+security... security، الأمن، يعني اليوم ال... ال
+
+155
+00:10:48,220 --> 00:10:50,980
+private companies الشركات الخاصة تستثمر كثير في
+
+156
+00:10:50,980 --> 00:10:54,580
+الأمن ومن أهم شركات الأمن في العالم اللي هو ال...
+
+157
+00:10:54,580 --> 00:11:00,490
+ال Blackwater و Blackwater طبعاً شركة بتستثمر في ال
+
+158
+00:11:00,490 --> 00:11:05,930
+... يعني زي اللي احنا بنسميهم مرتزقة يعني بياخدوهم
+
+159
+00:11:05,930 --> 00:11:09,890
+و... و الجيوش في بعض الحالات... في بعض الحالات بي
+
+160
+00:11:09,890 --> 00:11:14,430
+... بنفذوا مهمات خاصة فهذه المهمات الخاصة ما بودوش
+
+161
+00:11:14,430 --> 00:11:17,450
+الجيش تبعهم بودوا بعض الناس ال... ال very
+
+162
+00:11:17,450 --> 00:11:20,230
+professional people very very professional people
+
+163
+00:11:20,230 --> 00:11:24,650
+يعني بيكون عندهم إمكانيات كثير عالية and they
+
+164
+00:11:24,650 --> 00:11:28,150
+bought their life at risk because of money بيحطوا
+
+165
+00:11:28,150 --> 00:11:31,510
+حياتهم تحت الخطر فيه؟ ليش؟ لأنه ممكن it costs the
+
+166
+00:11:31,510 --> 00:11:35,450
+country if they send their kids or their sons يعني
+
+167
+00:11:35,450 --> 00:11:38,070
+ممكن إنه تكلف الدول خاصة ال developed countries
+
+168
+00:11:38,070 --> 00:11:41,330
+الدول المتقدمة لما بيبعتوا ولادهم مثلاً يروحوا
+
+169
+00:11:41,330 --> 00:11:44,750
+يحاربوا في some areas in Afghanistan، in Iraq، in
+
+170
+00:11:44,750 --> 00:11:47,650
+other countries sometimes when they send these
+
+171
+00:11:47,650 --> 00:11:53,230
+people or their sons and if they killed there they
+
+172
+00:11:53,230 --> 00:11:56,180
+have to pay insurance for them يعني إذا بيودوهم و
+
+173
+00:11:56,180 --> 00:11:59,980
+بيقتلوا و فبيدفعوا لهم insurance تأمين ف
+
+174
+00:11:59,980 --> 00:12:02,240
+instead of paying insurance لا في... they are
+
+175
+00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,900
+hiring some people from the... the... the other
+
+176
+00:12:04,900 --> 00:12:07,460
+companies from the security companies فبيروحوا هم
+
+177
+00:12:07,460 --> 00:12:13,200
+بتعقودوا مع شركات... شركات أمن خاصة فهم بس
+
+178
+00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,040
+بتفعولهم فلوس حتى لو قتلوا عشان ما... ما لهمش دخل
+
+179
+00:12:16,660 --> 00:12:20,320
+يعني ممكن يدفع هم في ال insurance يعني as far as I
+
+180
+00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:24,320
+know they may pay millions of dollar to their
+
+181
+00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,820
+families يعني لو كانوا بعتوا هم أولادهم يحاربوا في
+
+182
+00:12:27,820 --> 00:12:30,940
+بعض ال... يعني كانوا كثير في العراق يبعتوا ال...
+
+183
+00:12:30,940 --> 00:12:35,400
+ال... ال... يبعتوا ال Black waters هدول الناس اللي
+
+184
+00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:41,840
+بشركات الأمن و يعني ياخدوا... ياخدوا... ياخدوا فلوس
+
+185
+00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:46,920
+كويسة مقابل هذا الشغل لكن بتضلها أقل كلفة فيما هم
+
+186
+00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,960
+لو... لو بعتوا ولاد البلد لأن ولاد البلد لو راحوا
+
+187
+00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:54,320
+وماتوا وقتلوا هيدفعولهم ملايين دولارات as an
+
+188
+00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:58,160
+insurance وحنحكي موضوع ال insurance كمان شوية ف
+
+189
+00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,760
+... so this is in past ف... فال... ال security
+
+190
+00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:04,440
+companies is a promising areas فممكن ناس تستثمر في
+
+191
+00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:05,160
+هذه المجالات
+
+192
+00:13:08,770 --> 00:13:12,330
+Find the optimal asset mix بعد ما احنا بنشوف ال...
+
+193
+00:13:12,330 --> 00:13:15,230
+ايش الشغلات اللي لازم نحطها بال... بال portfolio
+
+194
+00:13:15,230 --> 00:13:18,890
+يعني أنا عندي هاي ال portfolio أو هادي وقررنا أنه
+
+195
+00:13:18,890 --> 00:13:22,990
+احنا هنحط real assets real estate sorry estates و
+
+196
+00:13:22,990 --> 00:13:29,390
+هنحط stocks مثلاً Egyptian stocks نحط مثلاً Libyan
+
+197
+00:13:29,390 --> 00:13:33,690
+نستثمر في Libyan مثلاً ونستثمر في ال gold ونستثمر
+
+198
+00:13:33,690 --> 00:13:34,430
+في ال textile
+
+199
+00:13:37,680 --> 00:13:41,240
+نستثمر في ال textile يعني في ال... في الملابس وفي
+
+200
+00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:46,360
+النسيج وفي الأشياء هذه okay فلبس... بدنا بعد ما
+
+201
+00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:48,960
+نقول أن هدول ال promising areas بتاعتنا هدول
+
+202
+00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:52,060
+المناطق ال promising اللي في المستقبل اللي هتكون
+
+203
+00:13:52,060 --> 00:13:56,820
+فيها تطور فبدنا نعمل ال optimal optimal asset mix
+
+204
+00:13:56,820 --> 00:14:01,920
+ال optimal it means قداش أنا أستثمر فيها يعني لو
+
+205
+00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,360
+أنا مثلاً متوفر معايا مئة ألف دولار كم أستثمر هنا
+
+206
+00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:09,820
+وقداش أستثمر هنا طبعاً ال optimal اللي هي بتعطيني
+
+207
+00:14:09,820 --> 00:14:16,300
+the higher return with with lower risk طبعاً في
+
+208
+00:14:16,300 --> 00:14:20,860
+chapter اسمه optimal لا هو تقريباً utility بس في
+
+209
+00:14:20,860 --> 00:14:24,100
+عندنا chapter شوية advance عليكم اعطيناه لل... لل
+
+210
+00:14:24,100 --> 00:14:28,640
+MBA student اعطيناه لطلاب ال master بنحط ال...
+
+211
+00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:30,960
+بنعرف ايش ال assets اللي احنا بنياها بنحطها في
+
+212
+00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,300
+equation بتطلعلي ال equation قداش أنا أستثمر في كل
+
+213
+00:14:33,300 --> 00:14:36,190
+واحدة منهم يعني لو أنا مثلاً معايا one hundred
+
+214
+00:14:36,190 --> 00:14:38,150
+thousand dollar how much I invest in real assets
+
+215
+00:14:38,150 --> 00:14:41,510
+or real estates, how much I invest in gold, how
+
+216
+00:14:41,510 --> 00:14:43,750
+much I invest in Libya, how much I invest in
+
+217
+00:14:43,750 --> 00:14:47,430
+Tunisia, how much I invest in the... in the... in
+
+218
+00:14:47,430 --> 00:14:50,270
+the energy industries, how much I invest in cinema
+
+219
+00:14:50,270 --> 00:14:54,670
+industries and so on okay فهذه المجالات اللي احنا
+
+220
+00:14:54,670 --> 00:14:58,890
+ممكن نستثمر... نستثمر فيها وبعدين كدهش how much
+
+221
+00:14:58,890 --> 00:15:02,920
+we invest in each يعني ما ينفعش أنا أقول okay هاي ال
+
+222
+00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,220
+areas اللي أنا هستثمر فيها and keep silent لأنه
+
+223
+00:15:06,220 --> 00:15:09,760
+تركيبة الأموال اللي أنا هستثمر فيها هي بتعملي كمان
+
+224
+00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,720
+... بتعملي maximizing to the expected rate of
+
+225
+00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:18,060
+return بتعملي maximizing تعظيم لل... لكن لو أنا
+
+226
+00:15:18,060 --> 00:15:21,420
+مثلاً روحت... ما استخدمتش ال optimal ممكن ما أستفدش
+
+227
+00:15:21,420 --> 00:15:24,880
+كثير من ال... من ال diversification
+
+228
+00:15:28,490 --> 00:15:32,190
+أكيد احنا هندفع taxes and I explained to you in
+
+229
+00:15:32,190 --> 00:15:36,330
+some instruments we may avoid taxes because some
+
+230
+00:15:36,330 --> 00:15:38,970
+instruments are tax exempted others are not tax
+
+231
+00:15:38,970 --> 00:15:44,410
+exempted so we consider taxes when we are managing
+
+232
+00:15:44,410 --> 00:15:51,770
+our portfolios Now because this... this course is a
+
+233
+00:15:51,770 --> 00:15:54,990
+foundation to investment يعني هذا ال... ال course
+
+234
+00:15:54,990 --> 00:15:58,150
+اللي أنت بتاخدوه هو مقدمة... مقدمة في الاستثمار
+
+235
+00:15:58,150 --> 00:16:01,150
+خذوا بارك واحنا بنحكي ما زلنا نحكي مقدمة استثمار
+
+236
+00:16:01,150 --> 00:16:04,290
+we are not talking in depth about investment اه
+
+237
+00:16:04,290 --> 00:16:06,670
+يعني so some people saying oh wow we still in the
+
+238
+00:16:06,670 --> 00:16:11,350
+foundation yes this is only foundation اه
+
+239
+00:16:16,010 --> 00:16:19,470
+Okay, so managing portfolio individual investors
+
+240
+00:16:19,470 --> 00:16:24,170
+هلأ ال individual investors يعني ال individual
+
+241
+00:16:24,170 --> 00:16:26,330
+investors اللي زيكم واللي زيكم اعتبر individual
+
+242
+00:16:26,330 --> 00:16:32,070
+investors where بيستثمر؟ where they... خليني أقول
+
+243
+00:16:32,070 --> 00:16:35,390
+why they invest خليني أنا أسألكم very simple
+
+244
+00:16:35,390 --> 00:16:40,770
+question why you invest السؤال بسيط يعني ليش احنا
+
+245
+00:16:40,770 --> 00:16:45,370
+ضروري ان احنا نستثمر مثلاً وطب و ليش؟ خليني أسمع
+
+246
+00:16:45,370 --> 00:16:50,070
+منكم طب وزادنا لأربعة so what يعني and you become
+
+247
+00:16:50,070 --> 00:16:54,690
+a millionaire then so what okay
+
+248
+00:16:54,690 --> 00:16:59,050
+the wealth what it means the wealth what it means
+
+249
+00:16:59,050 --> 00:17:00,770
+you have money you have millionaire you have
+
+250
+00:17:00,770 --> 00:17:03,270
+swimming pool you have everything in your life you 
+
+251
+00:17:03,270 --> 00:17:10,550
+have gold everything you have so what for what?
+
+252
+00:17:10,550 --> 00:17:13,370
+okay for what? what's the future? the future is 
+
+253
+00:17:13,370 --> 00:17:17,310
+comingو إذا مستقبل مرتفع فما يمكننا فعله مع
+
+254
+00:17:17,310 --> 00:17:17,870
+المستقبل؟
+
+255
+00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:25,520
+Okay, when you are getting old, you cannot do
+
+256
+00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:29,280
+something that you've been doing before, so it's
+
+257
+00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:33,860
+fine to secure yourself in the future. Yes,
+
+258
+00:17:34,020 --> 00:17:42,840
+this is one of the main reasons why we invest, not
+
+259
+00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:47,210
+because to get money or to make a profit. So if you
+
+260
+00:17:47,210 --> 00:17:50,890
+have everything إذا إنا كل شيء so what it means ما
+
+261
+00:17:50,890 --> 00:17:53,250
+هو the poor people are living their life and the
+
+262
+00:17:53,250 --> 00:17:55,550
+rich people are living their own life and these
+
+263
+00:17:55,550 --> 00:17:57,770
+people are living their own life in their own ways
+
+264
+00:17:57,770 --> 00:17:59,310
+and these people are living their own life in
+
+265
+00:17:59,310 --> 00:18:04,830
+their own ways. That's it. احنا المشكلة عندنا أنه
+
+266
+00:18:04,830 --> 00:18:08,150
+احنا بدنا نقتل يعني امبارح كنت نقاش مع أحد
+
+267
+00:18:08,150 --> 00:18:15,130
+الأساتذة بقوله أنه أنه الفقير بيقتنع أنه فقير and
+
+268
+00:18:15,130 --> 00:18:20,090
+enjoy in this life و ال .. و ال rich people they
+
+269
+00:18:20,090 --> 00:18:24,330
+لازم يقتنعوا أنهم أغنياء و يقتنعوا ب .. بغنائهم
+
+270
+00:18:24,330 --> 00:18:28,850
+لكن احنا مرات the opposite انه الغني مش مقنع أنه
+
+271
+00:18:28,850 --> 00:18:32,770
+غني و الفقير مش مقنع أنه فقير. مثال بسيط يعني
+
+272
+00:18:32,770 --> 00:18:36,150
+بتلاقي مثلا فقير ماعندهش يجيب .. يجيب مثلا كيلو
+
+273
+00:18:36,150 --> 00:18:40,890
+عدس لأولاده مع mobile as free. I saw some people
+
+274
+00:18:40,890 --> 00:18:47,820
+like this. مظبوط ولا لأ؟إذا كيف .. كيف تشتري ..
+
+275
+00:18:47,820 --> 00:18:51,580
+تقوم بتخزين المال لتشتري هاتف موبايل S3 وفي نفس
+
+276
+00:18:51,580 --> 00:18:54,820
+الوقت ليس لديك المال لتقضيه على الطعام؟ إذا كيف؟
+
+277
+00:18:54,820 --> 00:19:01,780
+هل هو رجل غامض؟ لا، لكن في الحقيقة هو غامض. مثل
+
+278
+00:19:01,780 --> 00:19:06,860
+آخر .. مثل آخر .. أم ترسل طفلها .. حسنًا، أسأل
+
+279
+00:19:06,860 --> 00:19:11,610
+أبيك أن تشتري شيء من .. من .. من السوق. Oh dad I
+
+280
+00:19:11,610 --> 00:19:15,150
+don't have money. And after two three seconds he
+
+281
+00:19:15,150 --> 00:19:20,910
+sent his kids to buy smoking or cigarettes. الأم
+
+282
+00:19:20,910 --> 00:19:24,290
+تبعت الولد بتقوله روح قوله أبوك بدنا كيلو ملح.
+
+283
+00:19:24,290 --> 00:19:29,930
+الأبو يقول روح ويقول أمك ماعناش مصاري في نفس الوقت.
+
+284
+00:19:29,930 --> 00:19:34,330
+بعد تلت دقايق بيبعت ابنه يشيله دخان. So this is the
+
+285
+00:19:34,330 --> 00:19:38,210
+problem. أعطيكم مثال تاري for the .. for the .. for
+
+286
+00:19:38,210 --> 00:19:42,230
+the rich people. الأغنية بتلاقي لو جاله على الشارع
+
+287
+00:19:42,230 --> 00:19:46,250
+في .. في إيش charity في إيش free. اه روح يا ولد روح
+
+288
+00:19:46,250 --> 00:19:51,630
+جيه الميه ببلاش أو في ناس ب .. في .. في ناس قاعدين
+
+289
+00:19:51,630 --> 00:19:55,130
+ببيعوا ب .. بوزعوا ال honor وقاعدة بتوزع شغلات
+
+290
+00:19:55,130 --> 00:19:59,630
+يعني مثلاإيجي الصيف أو الشتاء fans بيوزعوا مراوح
+
+291
+00:19:59,630 --> 00:20:02,770
+للناس الفقراء. روح صوف ع الدور جيب طب. You are rich
+
+292
+00:20:02,770 --> 00:20:07,090
+man. So you don't need this. This is the problem. So
+
+293
+00:20:07,090 --> 00:20:09,410
+the this is why I say okay if you have a money you
+
+294
+00:20:09,410 --> 00:20:13,510
+have everything. But the problem is the the main
+
+295
+00:20:13,510 --> 00:20:18,090
+things the main things why we invest because human
+
+296
+00:20:18,090 --> 00:20:23,180
+capital. What it means human capital? ان احنا نطور في
+
+297
+00:20:23,180 --> 00:20:26,360
+ال human capital تبعنا. A human is fine if you just
+
+298
+00:20:26,360 --> 00:20:31,540
+hide this. We are human. We are human. But what it
+
+299
+00:20:31,540 --> 00:20:35,740
+means a human capital? It means we have a wealthy
+
+300
+00:20:35,740 --> 00:20:39,860
+human man or human body or a wealthy lady for
+
+301
+00:20:39,860 --> 00:20:46,740
+instance. يعني بن آدم يعني بتوزن educated. So spend
+
+302
+00:20:46,740 --> 00:20:50,470
+in education is very important. I don't mean
+
+303
+00:20:50,470 --> 00:20:52,610
+education is just primary school and secondary
+
+304
+00:20:52,610 --> 00:20:55,590
+school and other things. Education is education. How
+
+305
+00:20:55,590 --> 00:20:58,530
+for instance even the mechanical people. حتى الناس
+
+306
+00:20:58,530 --> 00:21:01,770
+اللي بيصلحوا السيارات they should be educated. What
+
+307
+00:21:01,770 --> 00:21:06,950
+it means educated that the level help them to do
+
+308
+00:21:06,950 --> 00:21:10,150
+some advanced mechanical things to the people
+
+309
+00:21:10,150 --> 00:21:14,430
+called. يعني يكون هم متعلمين بحيث لو إجت سيارة واحد،
+
+310
+00:21:14,430 --> 00:21:17,570
+شوفوا كيف بتأثر بال investments، لو إجت سيارة واحد
+
+311
+00:21:17,570 --> 00:21:21,210
+و هذا البن آدم بيعرفش أنه للسيارة هذه، لكن فاتح
+
+312
+00:21:21,210 --> 00:21:24,210
+مكانيكا، هيصلح، وبعد يومين تخرب، هذا البن آدم راح
+
+313
+00:21:24,210 --> 00:21:27,610
+ي .. ي .. يروح يشتري خطأ غير جديد و يتخرب كام مرة
+
+314
+00:21:27,610 --> 00:21:30,430
+و تلات مرة و رابع مرة، so بيصير هضر في الم .. في
+
+315
+00:21:30,430 --> 00:21:33,720
+.. في أموال الدولة. لكن if we have educated people
+
+316
+00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,500
+أنا ما بقصد educated people just educated people
+
+317
+00:21:36,500 --> 00:21:40,480
+just know how to read and write. لأ education in
+
+318
+00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:44,460
+everything. لأن حسب الأبحاث الأخيرة كل ما كان ال ..
+
+319
+00:21:44,460 --> 00:21:47,060
+ال .. ال .. ال social ال .. ال .. ال people are
+
+320
+00:21:47,060 --> 00:21:53,120
+educated ال cost بتبدأ تنخفض. Okay, و and they are
+
+321
+00:21:53,120 --> 00:21:57,400
+wisely use their wealth و كمان هم بيسيروا بحكمة
+
+322
+00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:03,650
+يستخدموا ال .. ال worth تبعتهم. Okay. So أهم
+
+323
+00:22:03,650 --> 00:22:06,850
+الاستثمارات ال why we invest particularly يعني
+
+324
+00:22:06,850 --> 00:22:09,930
+أنتوا in the .. بآخر سنة أو بتصور تالت سنة أو ان
+
+325
+00:22:09,930 --> 00:22:12,330
+شاء الله بكرا بتيروا أمهات و أباء و أولياء أمور
+
+326
+00:22:12,330 --> 00:22:16,430
+فجزء من الثروة تبعتكم لازم saving يصير فيها عشان
+
+327
+00:22:16,430 --> 00:22:17,770
+to educate your kids.
+
+328
+00:22:20,410 --> 00:22:24,420
+جدّيش احنا بننفق على التعليم؟ احنا معانا مدارس
+
+329
+00:22:24,420 --> 00:22:27,540
+الوكالة ومدارس الحكومة. It's free. لكن how much you
+
+330
+00:22:27,540 --> 00:22:31,880
+spend in your house for education? جداش احنا بنصرف
+
+331
+00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,140
+فلوس على أولادنا عشان نعلمهم، جداش احنا بنساعدهم،
+
+332
+00:22:35,140 --> 00:22:37,700
+جداش احنا we treat .. treat them to .. to motivate
+
+333
+00:22:37,700 --> 00:22:40,260
+them to educate or to .. to .. to know about
+
+334
+00:22:40,260 --> 00:22:42,920
+things، جداش احنا بنشيلهم قصص في البيت، جداش
+
+335
+00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:47,320
+بنشيلهم كتب، جداش بناخدهم على مكاتب عامة، جداش ..
+
+336
+00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,680
+this is a part of education not just only the
+
+337
+00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:54,340
+going to school. يالاش احنا بناخدهم مثلا .. مثلا
+
+338
+00:22:54,340 --> 00:22:57,400
+بمكان and to see this is the life. Look at this
+
+339
+00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:01,020
+look at this. This is education. Education it
+
+340
+00:23:01,020 --> 00:23:04,500
+doesn't mean just only to go to school. مش بس احنا
+
+341
+00:23:04,500 --> 00:23:10,880
+نروح على school. Okay. يعني انا .. يعني this is what
+
+342
+00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,620
+exactly means when you read around education in
+
+343
+00:23:13,620 --> 00:23:16,660
+this particular book. Education is for developments
+
+344
+00:23:16,660 --> 00:23:21,580
+education not developmentsل .. ل .. لتطوير الدولة
+
+345
+00:23:21,580 --> 00:23:25,460
+و تطوير المجتمع، التعليم بالأخلاق تمام، نعلمهم
+
+346
+00:23:25,460 --> 00:23:29,300
+الأخلاق، نعلمهم الأدب، كله هذا بالأخير، لأنه خلينا
+
+347
+00:23:29,300 --> 00:23:33,460
+نفكر بتفكير بسيط، إذا الولاد مش مقدّبين، الولاد ما
+
+348
+00:23:33,460 --> 00:23:36,060
+عندهم مش أخلاق، ممكن هم يروحوا يسرجوا، يسويوا،
+
+349
+00:23:36,060 --> 00:23:39,380
+يعملوا. وبالتالي كده هتكلف الأب و الأم و كده هتكلف
+
+350
+00:23:39,380 --> 00:23:42,960
+الدولة و كده هتكلف الهدف. وبالتالي كله cost. فالهدف
+
+351
+00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,820
+أنه احنا نخفض التكليف. طب هذا الولد لما يكون he has
+
+352
+00:23:46,820 --> 00:23:49,900
+a good experience و عنده شغل ممكن نروح مثلا نشوف
+
+353
+00:23:49,900 --> 00:23:53,980
+في بعض الدول ال human capital is important. يعني
+
+354
+00:23:53,980 --> 00:23:59,720
+مثلا for instance in Jordan في كان شعار مرفوع
+
+355
+00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:05,640
+الإنسان أغلى ما نملك. Majority of graduated people
+
+356
+00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,980
+in Jordan يعني بالأردن أغلب الناس بتتخرج و بروح و
+
+357
+00:24:08,980 --> 00:24:11,200
+بشتغلوا في دول الخليج العربي، بشتغلوا في أوروبا و
+
+358
+00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:15,680
+هذا فهدول في مرة مرة كانت سواء الأردن هي دونا
+
+359
+00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,660
+نفطية بدون نفط، مين النفط طبعا؟ هم الناس المتعلمين
+
+360
+00:24:20,550 --> 00:24:22,990
+فتصوروا لو يكون عندنا ناس professional people
+
+361
+00:24:22,990 --> 00:24:28,290
+متعلمين و بيروحوا بي .. بي .. بينافسوا ال .. ال ..
+
+362
+00:24:28,290 --> 00:24:30,850
+الولاد الآخرين في ال .. في العالم فهي بيكون في ..
+
+363
+00:24:30,850 --> 00:24:33,730
+في .. في .. فلوس تقفل في البلد. روحوا إذا حد فيه
+
+364
+00:24:33,730 --> 00:24:36,650
+راح على الكويت أو على الإمارات أو على السعودية أو
+
+365
+00:24:36,650 --> 00:24:40,070
+حتى على بعض الدول في أوروبا في ألمانيا في ..
+
+366
+00:24:40,070 --> 00:24:42,870
+هتلاقي إنه الباكستانيين و الهنود و كذا اللي هم
+
+367
+00:24:42,870 --> 00:24:47,710
+مجول add educated. في ناس educated. So this is .. is
+
+368
+00:24:47,710 --> 00:24:51,950
+.. is a very important area to invest. Look at the
+
+369
+00:24:51,950 --> 00:24:55,810
+education as investment tool. يعني انظر لل
+
+370
+00:24:55,810 --> 00:24:59,050
+education ك investment tool. مش انه انا بس growing
+
+371
+00:24:59,050 --> 00:25:02,570
+up kids. لأنه انا اذا spend your money you spend
+
+372
+00:25:02,570 --> 00:25:07,850
+now your money on your kids in the future this kid
+
+373
+00:25:07,850 --> 00:25:12,850
+has a promising future. اخلش احنا مابدناش ندفعله
+
+374
+00:25:12,850 --> 00:25:18,130
+فلوس هو he knows how to do fishing. يعني هو don't
+
+375
+00:25:19,810 --> 00:25:24,750
+يعني او خلينا نحكي treat or help your kids to know
+
+376
+00:25:24,750 --> 00:25:29,190
+how to do fishing يعني خذوهم على البحر علموهم أن 
+
+377
+00:25:29,190 --> 00:25:32,510
+هما يصطادوا then they do it in the future by
+
+378
+00:25:32,510 --> 00:25:37,270
+themselves ف this is .. this is a very important
+
+379
+00:25:37,270 --> 00:25:45,070
+area for investment ما شاء الله ما شاء الله فهي
+
+380
+00:25:45,070 --> 00:25:47,550
+.. هذه مناطق كويسة أن احنا نعمل investment فيها 
+
+381
+00:25:47,550 --> 00:25:50,810
+the educational human capital and the insurance 
+
+382
+00:25:50,810 --> 00:25:55,630
+the insurance أنه نعمل زي ما حكت تأمين له، تأمين على
+
+383
+00:25:55,630 --> 00:26:01,600
+الحياة لأنه في المستقبل we don't know، و في عندنا
+
+384
+00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,940
+أنواع كثيرة من التأمين عادة
+
+385
+00:26:05,940 --> 00:26:10,900
+في التأمين الشركات بتقطع جزء من الراتب و بتعملوا
+
+386
+00:26:10,900 --> 00:26:13,780
+في ال pension funds بتستثمروها، و كمان الشركة بتضيف
+
+387
+00:26:13,780 --> 00:26:17,280
+جزء من المقطوع، يعني مثلا بتقطع من الراتب الواحد 5%
+
+388
+00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:22,380
+الشركة بتضيف كمان 5% أو 10%، بيصير عنده 15%، هذا كل
+
+389
+00:26:22,380 --> 00:26:27,040
+شهر بتقطع من الراتب as insurance، لما طبعا يحلّ
+
+390
+00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:32,580
+التقاعد تبدأ يتم استرجاع هذه المبالغ بمضاعفاتها
+
+391
+00:26:32,580 --> 00:26:36,100
+بحيث أنّه هذا يستفيد من ال insurance investment in
+
+392
+00:26:36,100 --> 00:26:40,300
+residence، برضه هذا استثمار مهم كثير، ال residence
+
+393
+00:26:40,300 --> 00:26:46,920
+أنّه هو أنّه احنا نوفر مكان إقامة، يعني بتلاقي أن 
+
+394
+00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:54,060
+الواحد بيشتغل و كذا و إشي، و ممكن يعني ما عنده بيت، في 
+
+395
+00:26:54,060 --> 00:26:57,000
+the individual people they should focus first on as
+
+396
+00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,960
+I said in education، و لازم ثانيًا هم يركزوا على 
+
+397
+00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,620
+الـ .. الـ .. المكان الإقامة تبعهم، إذا كان عندك بيت
+
+398
+00:27:04,620 --> 00:27:07,120
+بالإيجار أنت تفكر how to invest to have your own
+
+399
+00:27:07,120 --> 00:27:13,120
+house، لأنه كل ما احنا الـ .. عشان تصير رفاهية، عشان
+
+400
+00:27:13,120 --> 00:27:15,580
+تصير رفاهية، يعني أنا سألتكوا في البداية طب و
+
+401
+00:27:15,580 --> 00:27:17,080
+course is so what، you have money you have
+
+402
+00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,520
+everything and you are not educated you don't know
+
+403
+00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,880
+what it means exactly، education is .. is .. is a
+
+404
+00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,540
+part of the culture، الثقافة يعني you are not educated
+
+405
+00:27:25,540 --> 00:27:29,140
+if you are not treating your neighbor nicely، أنت مش
+
+406
+00:27:29,140 --> 00:27:33,200
+إنسان educated، إذا أنت بتأذي الجيران because
+
+407
+00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,720
+education is a process، is not just stuffing the 
+
+408
+00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,620
+knowledge in your mind، مش أنّه احنا بس بنحط ال
+
+409
+00:27:39,620 --> 00:27:43,220
+knowledge في رأسنا و بنعبل knowledge و that's it
+
+410
+00:27:43,220 --> 00:27:49,370
+it is a behavior، هو سلوك، سلوك حضاري، okay، ف
+
+411
+00:27:49,370 --> 00:27:53,410
+investment in residence، أنّه احنا نستثمر فيه، أنّه
+
+412
+00:27:53,410 --> 00:27:58,790
+يكون عندنا مكان للـ .. للسكن، مكان للإقامة، و في ناس
+
+413
+00:27:58,790 --> 00:28:02,930
+مثلا آه .. ف هذا إيه بيعمل .. بيعمل أفضل لما يكون
+
+414
+00:28:02,930 --> 00:28:08,290
+الإنسان .. و بيعمل تطور، و بعدين المثل بيقول العشب
+
+415
+00:28:08,290 --> 00:28:12,790
+grass is not growing in the running rocket، يعني
+
+416
+00:28:12,790 --> 00:28:17,310
+العشب لا ينمو على صخرة متدحرجة، you know what it
+
+417
+00:28:17,310 --> 00:28:24,030
+means؟ العشب لا ينمو على درجة .. على صخرة متدحرجة
+
+418
+00:28:24,030 --> 00:28:28,710
+يعني هلأ لو أجينا احنا هذه الصخرة بتدحرج و حطينا
+
+419
+00:28:28,710 --> 00:28:34,190
+عليها مية بيجي عشب عليها؟ لكن if this is fixed and
+
+420
+00:28:34,190 --> 00:28:38,510
+you water it، ممكن ينمو العشب على هذه الصخرة لو إن
+
+421
+00:28:38,510 --> 00:28:42,990
+مكان عايش فيه exactly، و خاصة هذا residence، فبيكون
+
+422
+00:28:42,990 --> 00:28:47,680
+في .. بيصير في growing up و بيصير في .. في
+
+423
+00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:52,320
+inspiration and other things، هذه areas جديدة كمان
+
+424
+00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:56,180
+في أنّه أنت how to invest، I'm talking about now
+
+425
+00:28:56,180 --> 00:28:59,700
+individual investments، أنا بحكي عن ال individual
+
+426
+00:28:59,700 --> 00:29:03,320
+investment، استثمارات الشخصية، مش استثمارات الشركات
+
+427
+00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,960
+طبعًا في مادة اسمها personal finance، طبعًا احنا مش
+
+428
+00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,700
+موجودة عندنا بالعالم العربي اسمها personal finance
+
+429
+00:29:09,700 --> 00:29:12,700
+إيش personal finance يعني، how to manage your
+
+430
+00:29:12,700 --> 00:29:18,340
+finance، كيف أنتوّا تديرُوا أموالكم؟ كيف احنا معايا
+
+431
+00:29:18,340 --> 00:29:21,240
+مصاري كيف أديرها؟ و أنا student، يعني أنتوّا هلأ
+
+432
+00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:25,840
+student بتشتغلوش بس still you have something in
+
+433
+00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,100
+your hands، how to invest in this، كيف احنا ممكن
+
+434
+00:29:29,100 --> 00:29:32,940
+نستثمر هذه الأشياء؟ saving for retirement and the
+
+435
+00:29:32,940 --> 00:29:38,960
+assumption of risk، الـ .. الـ .. الاستثمار من أجل ال
+
+436
+00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:44,060
+.. ال retirement .. الـ .. التقاعد، و .. واحتمالات
+
+437
+00:29:44,060 --> 00:29:47,180
+الخطر، يعني واحد مثلا الله سبحانه و تعالى كان في الطريق
+
+438
+00:29:47,180 --> 00:29:52,280
+و صار حادث سيارة، واحد مثلا في طائرة و صار مشكلة
+
+439
+00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:56,120
+واحد مثلا يعني بصير مخاطر معينة في .. في .. في
+
+440
+00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,540
+الحياة، راح .. راح زار دولة معينة و كان فيها كوليرا
+
+441
+00:29:58,540 --> 00:30:03,200
+و إلى آخره، و .. and he's .. he's infected، ف ..
+
+442
+00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:07,860
+يعني زي ما يقولوها القرش الأبيض بينفع بالـ .. ولا
+
+443
+00:30:07,860 --> 00:30:11,700
+تجعل يدك مغلولة إلى عنقك ولا تبسطها كل البسط، يعني
+
+444
+00:30:11,700 --> 00:30:14,840
+هذا saving، يعني okay لازم الواحد يكون عنده شوية
+
+445
+00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:19,080
+saving و .. عشان المستقبل، retirement planning
+
+446
+00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,800
+models، في عندنا retirement planning models، في
+
+447
+00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:26,680
+عندنا عدة models أو وسائل لنعمل retirement
+
+448
+00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:31,460
+planning، موجودين في .. نعطيكوا إياه
+
+449
+00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,160
+في عندنا عدة أنواع من retirement planning
+
+450
+00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:44,840
+فبتشوفوها
+
+451
+00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:54,260
+في صفحة 970، صفحة
+
+452
+00:30:54,260 --> 00:30:58,460
+970، manage
+
+453
+00:30:58,460 --> 00:31:02,100
+your own portfolio or rely on others manage your
+
+454
+00:31:02,100 --> 00:31:07,530
+own portfolio، يعني ممكن أنت تعمل محفظة استثمارية
+
+455
+00:31:07,530 --> 00:31:14,730
+لوحدك، يعني شوفوا كيف يعني خلّاني احكي مثلا سهم بلد
+
+456
+00:31:14,730 --> 00:31:20,810
+تجدش تمانعه أربع دولار خمس دولار عشر دولار عشر
+
+457
+00:31:20,810 --> 00:31:25,970
+دولار، نفترض، نفترض، ترضه، في عندنا أسهم في السوق
+
+458
+00:31:25,970 --> 00:31:27,870
+الفلسطيني الأوراق المالية two dollar و three
+
+459
+00:31:27,870 --> 00:31:32,710
+dollars just، فكروا لو احنا فكرنا أنتوّا فكرتوا
+
+460
+00:31:32,710 --> 00:31:38,080
+لحاجة to do this investment، بتصور يعني أنّه ممكن
+
+461
+00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:42,920
+يصير فيه إشي، نعطيكوا مثال بسيط، هلأ لو شركة Paltel
+
+462
+00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,440
+ثمنها تلاتة دولار و نص أو أربعة دولار، okay؟
+
+463
+00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,800
+الأربعة دولار في تلاتة شيكل و نص، يعني نحكي لنفترض
+
+464
+00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:55,060
+ستة عشر .. خمسة عشر شيكل، خمسة عشر شيكل، سهم واحد،
+
+465
+00:31:55,060 --> 00:32:01,220
+خمسة عشر شيكل، يعني بالشهر لو احنا .. لو وفرنا مية
+
+466
+00:32:01,220 --> 00:32:06,540
+و خمسين شيكل، نشتري عشر أسهم، صح؟ طيب هذا العشرة
+
+467
+00:32:06,540 --> 00:32:10,000
+أسهم لو احنا فكرنا كل شهر، يعني أنا بتصور أنّه ممكن
+
+468
+00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:15,360
+.. ممكن احنا نوفر بالمتوسط اتوفروا خمس أسهم بالشهر
+
+469
+00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:19,240
+نهجة نقول يعني خمسة و سبعين شيكل، لو كل شهر وفرتوا
+
+470
+00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,900
+هالخمس أسهم هدول أنا بتوقع and leave them after
+
+471
+00:32:21,900 --> 00:32:24,920
+ten years، خليهم .. سيبقوا هنا بدة عشر سنين، يعني do
+
+472
+00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:31,240
+this after ten years، I think، هتسألوا أنّه هتكونوا
+
+473
+00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:38,870
+من الناس اللي معاكم فلوس، trust me، يعني شوفوا خمسة و 
+
+474
+00:32:38,870 --> 00:32:42,770
+سبعين شيكل، الخمسة و سبعين شيكل لو احنا حسبناهم
+
+475
+00:32:42,770 --> 00:32:46,050
+حسبة بسيطة، يعني أنا بشوف ناس بنجوسين، يعني أنا
+
+476
+00:32:46,050 --> 00:32:48,870
+ما بقبل التدخين، إن أنا شوفت واحد بدخن باليوم
+
+477
+00:32:48,870 --> 00:32:51,930
+القلبتين دخان، يعني كدهش القلبتين دخان، عشرة شيكل
+
+478
+00:32:51,930 --> 00:32:55,230
+عشرين شيكل، عشرين شيكل اضربهم في تلاتين يوم هي
+
+479
+00:32:55,230 --> 00:32:59,270
+ستماية شيكل، يعني هذا البناء آدم ابقى ستماية شيكل، كم
+
+480
+00:32:59,270 --> 00:33:03,430
+سهم بيقدر يشتري، احسب
+
+481
+00:33:03,430 --> 00:33:08,800
+خمسة عشر شيكل، 120 سهم، 120 سهم بتعرفوا ال 120 سهم
+
+482
+00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:13,300
+هدول لو عمل نصهم بالشهر اشتراهم لمدة عشر سنة شو
+
+483
+00:33:13,300 --> 00:33:19,240
+بيصير؟ بيصير مليونير، اه اه، just think in this way
+
+484
+00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:23,840
+فكروا بالطريقة هذه، و خاصة أن ال inflation كمان
+
+485
+00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,820
+التضخم طبعًا
+
+486
+00:33:31,500 --> 00:33:34,380
+بتصور إنّه كان متر الأرض قبل عشر سنين جداش واليوم
+
+487
+00:33:34,380 --> 00:33:39,740
+جداش، طبعًا؟ يعني just think on this way، فكروا بها
+
+488
+00:33:39,740 --> 00:33:42,700
+بطريقة هذه، اتصوروا إن شركة ياهو كانت في اليوم
+
+489
+00:33:42,700 --> 00:33:47,340
+والأيام ثمنها دولار واحد، فكروا جوجل كانت في اليوم
+
+490
+00:33:47,340 --> 00:33:53,260
+والأيام ثمنها دولار، في شركة كانت red call الآن
+
+491
+00:33:53,260 --> 00:33:56,500
+ثمنها تلاتمائة و خمسين دولار، بدأت بدولار واحد، one
+
+492
+00:33:56,500 --> 00:34:03,380
+dollar، 350 دولار، تصوروا أنت شاري ألف سهم ب ألف
+
+493
+00:34:03,380 --> 00:34:09,500
+دولار، صاروا جداش 350 ألف دولار بقى، this is long
+
+494
+00:34:09,500 --> 00:34:12,780
+term investment، يعني مش تروح تقول والله أستاذ حاجة
+
+495
+00:34:12,780 --> 00:34:16,080
+هيك تروح ثاني يوم تبيعه، هتخسره بس I'm talking
+
+496
+00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,960
+about long term investment، أنا بحكي على استثمارات
+
+497
+00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:25,160
+طويلة الأجل، manage your own portfolio or rely on
+
+498
+00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,400
+others، طب إيش مش قادرين، أنتوّا مش فاضيين تديرُوا
+
+499
+00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:31,380
+محافظكم، خلّوا أخرين يديرُوا لكم، خاصة في شركات
+
+500
+00:34:31,380 --> 00:34:35,020
+الاستثمارات في في أوروبا في أو في الولايات المتحدة
+
+501
+00:34:35,020 --> 00:34:39,720
+الأمريكية في دول الخليج العربي كمان في دول الخليج
+
+502
+00:34:39,720 --> 00:34:44,880
+العربي برضه في في الأردن في في مصر في شركات
+
+503
+00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:50,480
+استثمار مهمتها أن هي تدير هذه الاستثمارات okay طبعا
+
+504
+00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,540
+احنا we are not talking أن أنت you are millionaire
+
+505
+00:34:53,540 --> 00:34:57,040
+هدول الناس اللي ال .. ال .. الناس اللي ال .. ال
+
+506
+00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,160
+millionaire people أصلا they are starting from the
+
+507
+00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,820
+very scratch from the very beginning from zero
+
+508
+00:35:01,820 --> 00:35:09,340
+many people they not born from rich families كثير
+
+509
+00:35:09,340 --> 00:35:14,980
+ناس ما ولدوش من عائلات أصلا غنية اه بالظبط that's
+
+510
+00:35:14,980 --> 00:35:18,280
+think on this  فكروا .. إذا حطوا في بالكم education
+
+511
+00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:22,470
+is important area التعليم هو is important area for
+
+512
+00:35:22,470 --> 00:35:26,750
+education for the developments و خاصة the .. the
+
+513
+00:35:26,750 --> 00:35:29,010
+.. the competition in education شوفوا ال areas تبع
+
+514
+00:35:29,010 --> 00:35:31,450
+ال education اللي فيها development و promising
+
+515
+00:35:31,450 --> 00:35:38,330
+areas مهمة كثير ال investment in residence ال
+
+516
+00:35:38,330 --> 00:35:41,190
+houses و الشغلات استثمر في ال houses و المكان
+
+517
+00:35:41,190 --> 00:35:46,430
+اللي فينا retirement التقاعد و المخاطر المستقبلية
+
+518
+00:35:46,430 --> 00:35:50,830
+manage your own portfolio and rely on others tax
+
+519
+00:35:50,830 --> 00:35:57,570
+sheltering for invisible investors ال tax
+
+520
+00:35:57,570 --> 00:36:02,350
+sheltering مش كثير احنا هنركز عليها احنا ها في ال
+
+521
+00:36:02,350 --> 00:36:08,570
+investment لأنه يعني هاي خاصة معادل الكتاب حسب
+
+522
+00:36:08,570 --> 00:36:13,340
+القوانين الأمريكية ال pension funds ال pension
+
+523
+00:36:13,340 --> 00:36:16,720
+funds صناديق التقاعد ايه صناديق التقاعد صناديخ
+
+524
+00:36:16,720 --> 00:36:20,840
+التقاعد بدأت ايه تسوي صناديخ التقاعد يعني just انه
+
+525
+00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:25,740
+تاخد ال investors بتاخد منهم مثلا خمسين دولار
+
+526
+00:36:25,740 --> 00:36:30,820
+بالشهر ال pension funds هدول صاروا من أقوى صناديخ
+
+527
+00:36:30,820 --> 00:36:33,700
+الاستثمار و صاروا تملك شركات كبيرة في العالم هدول
+
+528
+00:36:33,700 --> 00:36:35,760
+قاعدين يساعدون على اقتصاد العالم ال pension funds
+
+529
+00:36:37,090 --> 00:36:40,830
+أه صندوق التقاعد يعني شوفوا كم موظف موجود في
+
+530
+00:36:40,830 --> 00:36:44,970
+العالم، يا ترى تم اقتطاع من رواتبهم؟ و أين هدول
+
+531
+00:36:44,970 --> 00:36:48,770
+بيروحوا بيعملوا investments؟ يعني لو أنتم تصوروا
+
+532
+00:36:48,770 --> 00:36:54,210
+أن الناس اللي عندنا hand بدل ما هم ي .. ي ..
+
+533
+00:36:54,210 --> 00:36:56,750
+يروحوا يضيعوا الفلوس تبعتهم، في ناس كثير بتضيع
+
+534
+00:36:56,750 --> 00:37:02,590
+الفلوس على شغلات مش لازمة يعني، هدول إيش بيصير؟ لو
+
+535
+00:37:02,590 --> 00:37:08,180
+هدول عملنا لهم investment و تم في شركات بتاخد ال
+
+536
+00:37:08,180 --> 00:37:10,620
+pensions هدول بتاخد الأموال هذه و بتعمل ال channel
+
+537
+00:37:10,620 --> 00:37:14,480
+الشركات الأملاقة الكبيرة و الضخمة هذه من وين اجت؟
+
+538
+00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,660
+هذه من ال one dollar و ال one hundred dollar اجت
+
+539
+00:37:17,660 --> 00:37:22,840
+من ال one dollar و ال one hundred dollar ففي
+
+540
+00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,420
+.. في برنامج اسمه .. اسمه the poorest of the poor
+
+541
+00:37:25,420 --> 00:37:28,520
+و أنا إلاقة في ال .. في هذا البرنامج في .. في
+
+542
+00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:33,900
+Bangladesh و حتى اجت ناس ال .. ال .. ال ..اللي
+
+543
+00:37:33,900 --> 00:37:37,600
+كانت لها دور هي و Youness، Youness هو أخذ جائزة
+
+544
+00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:41,520
+novel في إنشاء هذا ال investment bank أو اللي
+
+545
+00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:46,040
+يسمونه Grameen Bank هذا .. they targeted .. they
+
+546
+00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:50,100
+targeted the poorest of the poor عارفين؟ هذا بس
+
+547
+00:37:50,100 --> 00:37:53,740
+بيعمل investment في ال the poorest of the poor you
+
+548
+00:37:53,740 --> 00:37:56,680
+know what it means؟ أفقر الفقراء، فقراء، بس
+
+549
+00:37:56,680 --> 00:38:00,800
+بيستهدف .. اليوم هذول الناس they own 16 companies
+
+550
+00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:04,630
+one of the largest companies in Bangladesh لهم
+
+551
+00:38:04,630 --> 00:38:09,590
+هدول الناس لهم أكبر ست عشر شركة في بنجلاديش، تصور
+
+552
+00:38:09,590 --> 00:38:15,350
+وين؟ the poorest of the poor، أفقر فخرة، يعني the
+
+553
+00:38:15,350 --> 00:38:18,970
+problem is sometimes why poor are poor because
+
+554
+00:38:18,970 --> 00:38:23,650
+sometimes they want to be poor يعني هذه الدراسة
+
+555
+00:38:23,650 --> 00:38:27,170
+عملت في .. في .. في بعض المناطق في .. أظن في
+
+556
+00:38:27,170 --> 00:38:30,790
+السودان أو في دولة من الدول الأفريقية the main
+
+557
+00:38:30,790 --> 00:38:35,170
+question is why poor are poor؟ ليش الفقراء هم
+
+558
+00:38:35,170 --> 00:38:38,650
+فقراء؟ in .. in .. in .. the majority of the
+
+559
+00:38:38,650 --> 00:38:41,950
+questions say because they want to be poor كانوا
+
+560
+00:38:41,950 --> 00:38:47,250
+يعطوه مثل أن الرجل يضل قاعد في البيت ما بدهوش
+
+561
+00:38:47,250 --> 00:38:51,770
+يشتغل so he .. he .. he should be poor very simple
+
+562
+00:38:53,250 --> 00:38:57,730
+أه very simple يعني أن يعني مرات ال poorest of
+
+563
+00:38:57,730 --> 00:39:01,630
+the poor مرات something are off their hands مرات
+
+564
+00:39:01,630 --> 00:39:05,430
+بيكون هدول الناس off their hands حاجات خارج عن
+
+565
+00:39:05,430 --> 00:39:09,390
+إطارهم و عن إمكانيات ممكن يكونوا poor لكن حسب
+
+566
+00:39:09,390 --> 00:39:13,250
+الدراسة هاي بتحكي أن ال poorest of the poor they
+
+567
+00:39:13,250 --> 00:39:15,940
+want to be poor because they want to be poor لأن
+
+568
+00:39:15,940 --> 00:39:19,040
+هما بدهم يكونوا هيك بعض الناس they don't send
+
+569
+00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:22,020
+their kids to the schools شوفوا كده ما بدهوش ال kids
+
+570
+00:39:22,020 --> 00:39:25,220
+تبعهم I know them personally أنا بعرف some
+
+571
+00:39:25,220 --> 00:39:27,140
+families they don't send their kids to school
+
+572
+00:39:27,140 --> 00:39:30,260
+because they want to save their money ناس ما بدهوش
+
+573
+00:39:30,260 --> 00:39:32,760
+بيودهم على المدارس عشان بدهم يوفروا فلوسهم طيب
+
+574
+00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,300
+okay now it's fine you can save the money but in
+
+575
+00:39:35,300 --> 00:39:37,120
+the future you will lose a lot of money
+
+576
+00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,920
+لأنه بالمستقبل هيكون ولادكم يشتغلوا بأجر عند
+
+577
+00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,180
+الناس و بالأخر they cannot generate money، مش
+
+578
+00:39:47,180 --> 00:39:50,700
+هيجبوا الفلوس، so they think in this way and in
+
+579
+00:39:50,700 --> 00:39:54,840
+the future they become poor. Take another example,
+
+580
+00:39:54,980 --> 00:39:57,520
+sometimes الrich people they do the same، مرات
+
+581
+00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:01,150
+الناس الأغنياء بيسوي نفس الشيء. Okay يعني I know
+
+582
+00:40:01,150 --> 00:40:04,290
+some .. واحد من أصدقائي كان مع بعض، أقول له أنتم
+
+583
+00:40:04,290 --> 00:40:07,930
+ليش؟ في ناس .. بقول له طبعا مش من فلسطين، بقول له ..
+
+584
+00:40:07,930 --> 00:40:09,650
+بقول لي واه اللي احنا متعلمين، احنا ال .. أنا
+
+585
+00:40:09,650 --> 00:40:12,010
+الوحيد اللي في القرية متعلم، بقول له ليش؟ بقول لي
+
+586
+00:40:12,010 --> 00:40:14,210
+لأن أغلبهم merchants people and they don't
+
+587
+00:40:14,210 --> 00:40:19,520
+believe in education، يعني أغلبهم merchant، تجار
+
+588
+00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:23,260
+ما بيقتنعوش في التعليم بقول له هذول بعد عشرين سنة
+
+589
+00:40:23,260 --> 00:40:25,740
+ثلاثين سنة شوفوا اتفرجوا في حالهم لأن حيسير فيه
+
+590
+00:40:25,740 --> 00:40:28,320
+تغيير في الدنيا هذا كان قبل ال 15 سنة عشرين سنة
+
+591
+00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:32,960
+فتصوروا إيش اللي بيسير أن هذول ال merchant و
+
+592
+00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:36,560
+التجارة بتحتاج ل international relationship بتحتاج
+
+593
+00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,960
+ل .. اليوم صارت ال complicated life ف if these
+
+594
+00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,460
+people cannot fit with the new models so they
+
+595
+00:40:43,460 --> 00:40:46,800
+cannot face the life ما بيقدروش يواجهوا مطالبات الحياة
+
+596
+00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:54,540
+كثير شركات انتهت و خلصت because they cannot live ..
+
+597
+00:40:54,540 --> 00:40:58,920
+they cannot meet the challenges of this life
+
+598
+00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:04,000
+defined contribution plans pension funds هدول أو
+
+599
+00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,940
+صناديق التقاعد investment
+
+600
+00:41:07,940 --> 00:41:10,280
+policy is essentially the same as for tax
+
+601
+00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,100
+qualified individual retirement account يعني هدول
+
+602
+00:41:13,100 --> 00:41:16,240
+تقريبا .. أو كمان هدول ال pension funds المعفاة من
+
+603
+00:41:16,240 --> 00:41:19,560
+الضرائب يعني زي مثلا احنا بنستثمر أموال الأيتام
+
+604
+00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:26,340
+مثلا نستثمر أموال ال .. بعض المساكين مثلا هدول
+
+605
+00:41:26,340 --> 00:41:30,400
+بيجيهم مثلا تبرعات و كذا و إلى آخره تمام؟ هدول
+
+606
+00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:32,360
+they .. they should know how to spend this money
+
+607
+00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:36,480
+صحيح هي قليلة صحيح هي محتاجينها لكن at the end we
+
+608
+00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:40,120
+should look carefully how to spend this money
+
+609
+00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:41,740
+تمام؟
+
+610
+00:41:43,130 --> 00:41:47,150
+لازم احنا يعني مثلا من خبرتنا البسيطة طبعا هذه مش
+
+611
+00:41:47,150 --> 00:41:50,930
+موجودة .. أظن أن كانت في دولة في أفريقيا و كانوا
+
+612
+00:41:50,930 --> 00:41:54,290
+أصدقاؤنا يحكونا بتعطيهم مثلا مية دولار واحدة من
+
+613
+00:41:54,290 --> 00:41:58,730
+الفتيات بتعطيها مية دولار فقيرة مسكينة يعني فباشرة
+
+614
+00:41:58,730 --> 00:42:05,800
+راحت اشترت ملابس فيها ملابس يعني يعني خلينا نحكي
+
+615
+00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,820
+الأغنياء اللي بيشتروها طب أوكي اشتري الملابس اللي
+
+616
+00:42:08,820 --> 00:42:11,980
+بتناسبك لكن not in one hundred dollar some people
+
+617
+00:42:11,980 --> 00:42:14,460
+I think some people in .. in here they can't do
+
+618
+00:42:14,460 --> 00:42:18,520
+this بعض الناس هل ممكن يعملوا الكلام هذا أن أنا
+
+619
+00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,980
+ممكن أعطي ال .. ال hundred dollar أروح ينفقها على
+
+620
+00:42:20,980 --> 00:42:24,200
+شغلات ما بيلزموش لأ أول شيء فيه شغلات أساسية بعدين
+
+621
+00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:26,140
+بنحكي في شغلات أخرى
+
+622
+00:42:33,390 --> 00:42:36,130
+investment in long run advice for mutual funds
+
+623
+00:42:36,130 --> 00:42:41,930
+industry الاستثمار في المدى البعيد يفضل استثمار
+
+624
+00:42:41,930 --> 00:42:45,830
+في مجالات الصناعة لأن زي ما حكينا الصناعة هي
+
+625
+00:42:45,830 --> 00:42:50,290
+بتعمل ال .. ال .. الورث الحقيقي زي ما حكينا في
+
+626
+00:42:50,290 --> 00:42:53,590
+chapter one don't try to outguess the market by
+
+627
+00:42:53,590 --> 00:42:57,490
+moving your money in and out يعني في ال long term
+
+628
+00:42:57,490 --> 00:43:02,240
+تو زي ما حكينافي ال long term بنفعش أنه ندخل و
+
+629
+00:43:02,240 --> 00:43:06,340
+نطلع في الاستثمارات يعني مثلا أنا قررت أنه كل شهر
+
+630
+00:43:06,340 --> 00:43:10,580
+أحط من مصروفي خمسين شيكل الخمسين شيكل هدول باشتري 
+
+631
+00:43:10,580 --> 00:43:15,320
+فيهم تلات أسهم أشتري فيهم في شركة بالتر okay بعد
+
+632
+00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:19,200
+ست شهور بنفعش أنسحب أروح أحول من بالتر لشركة أخرى
+
+633
+00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:23,760
+لأنه ممكن أخسر لكن just fix with this لأنه
+
+634
+00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:28,320
+الاحتمالات أنه أنت تنجح أكثر حتى لو كان السعر ممكن
+
+635
+00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:31,560
+ينزل لأنك أنت invest in the long term يعني أعطيكم 
+
+636
+00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:36,100
+مثال واضح أسعار الذهب قبل تلت شهور قداش كانت؟ كانت
+
+637
+00:43:36,100 --> 00:43:38,920
+ألف و ستة ألف و ستمائة و شي و ألف و سبعمائة قبل 
+
+638
+00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:43,360
+السنة كانت ألف و مائة الآن أسعار الذهب بالألف و
+
+639
+00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:46,640
+أربعمية ممكن إذا أنتم عاملين long term investment
+
+640
+00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:48,660
+don't withdraw your money from the market
+
+641
+00:43:48,660 --> 00:43:52,900
+ماتسحبوش، ماتبيعوش خلاص، ضلك ثابت لأن definitely
+
+642
+00:43:52,900 --> 00:43:57,590
+أن الذهب هيطلع لأنه هيك طبيعي فالإنسان اللي بيروح
+
+643
+00:43:57,590 --> 00:44:02,930
+بيسحب و بيخاف هيخسر لكن يضلك .. يضلك ماشي، still
+
+644
+00:44:02,930 --> 00:44:05,690
+.. still the .. the gold is a good area to
+
+645
+00:44:05,690 --> 00:44:09,430
+investment بضل الذهب اليوم كمان هو area كويسة بال
+
+646
+00:44:09,430 --> 00:44:13,490
+investment ف don't go in and out خاصة بال long
+
+647
+00:44:13,490 --> 00:44:17,110
+term investment بال short term you can do this بس
+
+648
+00:44:17,110 --> 00:44:19,470
+مين اللي بيقدر يعمل ال short term investment؟ the
+
+649
+00:44:19,470 --> 00:44:23,510
+qualified investors يعني الناس المستثمرين الأقوياء
+
+650
+00:44:23,510 --> 00:44:26,250
+بيقدروا يبيعوا و يشتريوا في نفس اللحظة أه يبيعوا و
+
+651
+00:44:26,250 --> 00:44:29,630
+يشتريوا في السوق بس بال long term لأ ال people
+
+652
+00:44:29,630 --> 00:44:34,050
+اللي اللي بدهم security في المستقبل بدهم residency
+
+653
+00:44:34,050 --> 00:44:37,450
+بدهم education بدهم كذا فممكن يستثمروا فيه لفترات
+
+654
+00:44:37,450 --> 00:44:45,890
+بعيدة diversity
+
+655
+00:44:45,890 --> 00:44:48,650
+to reduce risk حاولوا أن نوع في الاستثمار تبعنا
+
+656
+00:44:49,650 --> 00:44:53,010
+يعني احنا استثمرنا في .. في غزة، نستثمر في الضفة
+
+657
+00:44:53,010 --> 00:44:55,810
+الغربية، نستثمر في مصر، نستثمر في .. في المناطق
+
+658
+00:44:55,810 --> 00:45:00,190
+هذه بحيث أنه نعمل diversity استثمرنا مثلا في .. في
+
+659
+00:45:00,190 --> 00:45:03,070
+السيارات، نستثمر في الأغذية، نستثمر في الصناعات،
+
+660
+00:45:03,070 --> 00:45:08,910
+نحاول برضه نعمل diversity put .. put money in
+
+661
+00:45:08,910 --> 00:45:11,910
+stocks, bonds and money market mutual funds، حطوا
+
+662
+00:45:11,910 --> 00:45:15,490
+مصاريكم في شغلات كثير يعني زي اما احنا مانحطش في
+
+663
+00:45:15,490 --> 00:45:21,460
+.. في سلة واحدة لأنه ممكن تصير فيه خطأ يعني مثلا
+
+664
+00:45:21,460 --> 00:45:24,940
+تاجر بس بركز في العملة يعني أو تاجر بركز بس في
+
+665
+00:45:24,940 --> 00:45:28,120
+العقارات ننصحوش نقوله okay جرب اشتغل في الملابس
+
+666
+00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:32,340
+جرب اشتغل في كذا نوع شوف ايش .. ممكن يجيلك تاني
+
+667
+00:45:32,340 --> 00:45:36,760
+يتعود okay
+
+668
+00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:42,920
+avoid keeping 401k money in a company's low risk
+
+669
+00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:47,120
+default investment يعني حاولوا طبعا هذه 401
+
+670
+00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:52,600
+بالمعادلة يعني حاولوا ماتحطوش فلوس كثير في شركة
+
+671
+00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:57,380
+واحدة حاولوا يعني تتنوعوا في .. لأنه ممكن .. طبعا
+
+672
+00:45:57,380 --> 00:46:01,340
+احنا بنحكي probability احتمالات الاحتمالات تبعتنا
+
+673
+00:46:01,340 --> 00:46:06,300
+أن لو احنا حاطينا في just one company ممكن ..
+
+674
+00:46:06,300 --> 00:46:09,000
+و مانخليش ال big portion يكون في particular company
+
+675
+00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:11,740
+يعني أنا أعطيكم مثال، طبعا كنا نحكي على شركات
+
+676
+00:46:11,740 --> 00:46:17,460
+تقنية في شركة اسمها Cisco شركة Cisco هذه من أكبر
+
+677
+00:46:17,460 --> 00:46:21,220
+شركة إنتاج ال hardware في العالم مر السعر طبعا طالع
+
+678
+00:46:21,220 --> 00:46:29,560
+من 17-18 وصل ل 67 فجأة فجأة من 67 نزل ل 15 طبعا
+
+679
+00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:35,160
+تخيلوا .. تخيلوا واحد حاطط كل فلوسه عنه خلاص فيه
+
+680
+00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:40,000
+بيكون فيه معلومات صارت في السوق تسربت وكذا
+
+681
+00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:43,100
+وبالتالي صار فيها هيك طبعا؟ وبالتالي اللي عمل
+
+682
+00:46:43,100 --> 00:46:46,040
+investment في هذه الشركات هيكون وضعه .. بلاش احنا
+
+683
+00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:51,120
+بالتل في غزة وصلت في يوم من الأيام 16 بدأت تتراجع
+
+684
+00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:55,900
+لوصلت خمسة تخيلوا يعني واحد ثروة كل حطة شاريه فيها
+
+685
+00:46:55,900 --> 00:47:00,640
+في بالتل عشرة ولا اثنا عشر يعني شاريله مثلا مبلغ
+
+686
+00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:04,480
+معين من ستة عشر لخمسة لخمسة يعني تقريبا ثلاثمائة في
+
+687
+00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:08,960
+المية من ثروته راحت خسارة يعني اللي حاطه الألف دولار
+
+688
+00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,840
+وصلت لثلاثمائة أو لمائتين دولار طب تخيلوا اللي حاطه
+
+689
+00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:15,240
+مائة ألف دولار كده وصلت ثلاثين ألف دولار فبنحجزله
+
+690
+00:47:15,240 --> 00:47:19,860
+خسارة في .. في الشفة يعني فبنيجي بقوله لأ دوق ..
+
+691
+00:47:22,590 --> 00:47:30,370
+لازم التنويع يصير و التنويع مش تنويع بأي شيء لازم
+
+692
+00:47:30,370 --> 00:47:34,330
+يكون تنويع في .. يكون في equities يكون ال
+
+693
+00:47:34,330 --> 00:47:37,390
+correlation negative ايش ال correlation negative؟
+
+694
+00:47:37,390 --> 00:47:41,010
+لو بالة طلعت نزلت في واحدة ثانية كبيرة هتطلع فهو
+
+695
+00:47:41,010 --> 00:47:46,850
+خسرته هن هتعوض في ربحه هن okay this is the ..by
+
+696
+00:47:46,850 --> 00:47:49,950
+worry of investing a large percentage of your
+
+697
+00:47:49,950 --> 00:47:54,670
+company stocks Investment horizon determines which
+
+698
+00:47:54,670 --> 00:47:59,730
+risk-free rates to choose الاستثمار الطويل كان
+
+699
+00:47:59,730 --> 00:48:03,170
+بيحدد كمان المخاطر اللي ممكن نتحملها make simple
+
+700
+00:48:03,170 --> 00:48:06,530
+investment choices such as target date retirement
+
+701
+00:48:06,530 --> 00:48:11,110
+funds حاولوا تسهلوا عملية الاستثمار تبعتكم مثلا
+
+702
+00:48:11,110 --> 00:48:15,630
+أنتم اليوم بتكونوا اتقرروا يعني كل واحد بده يحط في
+
+703
+00:48:15,630 --> 00:48:20,650
+رأسه هدف بالاستثمار حسب كل واحد ايش ال .. ايش اللي
+
+704
+00:48:20,650 --> 00:48:24,750
+.. وصدقوني كل واحد بيحط هدف بيصله بإذن الله يعني
+
+705
+00:48:24,750 --> 00:48:28,930
+لكن المشكلة أن ال people اللي عايشين بدون هدف ليش؟
+
+706
+00:48:28,930 --> 00:48:33,030
+لأن كل ما تحط هدف بدك تسعى لتحقيقه لكن لو ما فيلكي
+
+707
+00:48:33,030 --> 00:48:36,550
+شيء هدف مش هتسعى لتحقيقه just by chance ممكن هتيجي
+
+708
+00:48:36,550 --> 00:48:42,040
+الحياة معاك هيك اه فش شيء صدفة طبعا أي بالظبط و
+
+709
+00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,580
+بالتالي ايش ال retirement plan نيجي احنا و نقول
+
+710
+00:48:44,580 --> 00:48:49,800
+والله أنا .. أنا يعني مثلا أنا كثير اشوف انفلة من
+
+711
+00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,100
+طلاب وطالب هتيجي يقول احنا لجيت في السنة الرابعة
+
+712
+00:48:52,100 --> 00:48:56,620
+أنا about to finish أنا خطتي مثلا بعد مثلا بدك
+
+713
+00:48:56,620 --> 00:49:01,120
+تعمل مجلس سيارة بديك مصاري طبعا مثلا فلازم تخبر
+
+714
+00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:06,760
+أبوكي بالكلام هذا عشان هو يعمل مثلا خليني افهمك
+
+715
+00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:10,960
+كده لازم تخبره ليش عشان هو كمان to put his in his
+
+716
+00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:15,680
+account يعمل حسابه طيب دي نفترض أنه أنت بدك الكلام
+
+717
+00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:19,900
+هذا أنه أنا بدي أسوي الكلام هذا okay أنا بدي أدفع
+
+718
+00:49:19,900 --> 00:49:24,260
+بديك تفكر بطريقة طب أنا بعد خمس سنين بدي أشتري
+
+719
+00:49:24,260 --> 00:49:28,160
+سيارة بس أنا هيك بفكر how .. how we can do this طب
+
+720
+00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:31,920
+إذا كنتم عائلة من زوج و زوجة و أولاد طيب هم بديوا
+
+721
+00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:36,780
+نفكروا ببيت لازم يحطوا الخطة تبعت لهم الخطة هذه بده
+
+722
+00:49:36,780 --> 00:49:40,380
+تكون مثلا أنا بعد عشر سنين بيكفي ندفع إيجار مثلا،
+
+723
+00:49:40,380 --> 00:49:44,480
+بدنا يكون بيت، في ناس مربعات بيكونوا ما يفكروا wisely
+
+724
+00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:48,160
+بيكون هو بيدفع إيجار بيت يعني متين دولار و ممكن هو
+
+725
+00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,040
+يروح يجيب شقة ب ثلاثمائة و خمسين دولار يدفع أقساط
+
+726
+00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:55,360
+فيها مثلا، بدنا نفكر في هالطريقة، اذا the simplest
+
+727
+00:49:55,360 --> 00:50:00,430
+way is to put a target وفي ناس كثير يعني أنا
+
+728
+00:50:00,430 --> 00:50:02,770
+بعرفهم أنهم بيحطوا target كل أربع أو خمس سنين
+
+729
+00:50:02,770 --> 00:50:05,550
+بيحطوا له long term targets يعني مثلا هالخمس سنين
+
+730
+00:50:05,550 --> 00:50:09,470
+فيه سيارة مثلا، الخمس سنين بعديها في بيت، الخمس
+
+731
+00:50:09,470 --> 00:50:13,030
+سنين أو بيت من منطقة أخرى، الخمس سنين بعديهم
+
+732
+00:50:13,030 --> 00:50:16,550
+مثلا كذا، في ناس بيشتغلوا مثلا بال .. بال ..
+
+733
+00:50:16,550 --> 00:50:23,200
+بالسنة okay؟ بالسنة ايه ايش ممكن يسوي هو؟ طيب
+
+734
+00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:27,260
+inflation risk على long term investors في احنا في
+
+735
+00:50:27,260 --> 00:50:30,300
+مشكلة في ال investment فيصير inflation كيف احنا
+
+736
+00:50:30,300 --> 00:50:35,200
+نختار instruments to fight against inflation؟ يعني
+
+737
+00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:40,900
+نختار instruments أدوات مالية ضد ال inflation TIBS
+
+738
+00:50:40,900 --> 00:50:46,000
+are helpful trades against inflation يعني هي trade
+
+739
+00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:49,580
+against inflation are helpful but not really risk
+
+740
+00:50:49,580 --> 00:50:52,760
+free يعني احنا في عندنا بعض الأدوات الاستثمارية
+
+741
+00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:57,500
+كويسة بتشتغل مع الinflation يعني مثلا الذهب كل ما
+
+742
+00:50:57,500 --> 00:51:01,240
+بيزيد الinflation سعر الذهب بيرتفع ال oil النفط كل
+
+743
+00:51:01,240 --> 00:51:05,420
+ما بيزيد الinflation ال oil بيزيد فبندور على ال
+
+744
+00:51:05,420 --> 00:51:08,500
+areas هذه اللي بتساعدنا to fight again market
+
+745
+00:51:08,500 --> 00:51:12,800
+value can fluctuate بس بال short term بال short
+
+746
+00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:14,340
+term أن في عندي fluctuation
+
+747
+00:51:16,820 --> 00:51:19,720
+get afraid ما تخافوش كثير خاصة بال long term
+
+748
+00:51:19,720 --> 00:51:24,560
+investment في الاستثمارات طويلة الأجل ال short
+
+749
+00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:27,920
+term fluctuation is not influence on the long term
+
+750
+00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:32,380
+impact ما بتأثرش كثير على ال long term كيف 
+
+751
+00:51:32,380 --> 00:51:39,180
+fluctuate تذبذب يعني كل يوم الأسعار بتذبذب صح لكن 
+
+752
+00:51:39,180 --> 00:51:44,340
+بالأخير أنه في الأسعار بتطلع reinvestment rate risk
+
+753
+00:51:44,340 --> 00:51:50,320
+يعني إعادة الاستثمار يعني الأرباح اللي إحنا بنحصل 
+
+754
+00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:55,400
+عليها يا إما إحنا بنروح نصرفها يا إما بنروح نعملها 
+
+755
+00:51:55,400 --> 00:52:03,740
+reinvestment ف we should think on this هكذا
+
+756
+00:52:03,740 --> 00:52:04,400
+وكون خلصنا 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gqq_Fyc5bTk_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gqq_Fyc5bTk_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..401591a372a81c2b101a2a7e241a0ce9b2a5a2a0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gqq_Fyc5bTk_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,3024 @@
+1
+00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:25,760
+Okay بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اليوم هنكمل في ال
+
+2
+00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:31,020
+investments في ال investment policy المرة
+
+3
+00:00:31,020 --> 00:00:33,340
+الأولى اللي حكينا أنه احنا لازم نتعرف على ال
+
+4
+00:00:33,340 --> 00:00:36,360
+investment objective و نعمل description لل
+
+5
+00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:42,760
+investors و we design the investment policy اليوم
+
+6
+00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:49,480
+طبعا كمان لازم هدول الخمس five process أو five
+
+7
+00:00:49,480 --> 00:00:55,340
+stepsto do asset allocation asset allocation انه
+
+8
+00:00:55,340 --> 00:00:58,960
+احنا كيف بدنا نوزع الاستثمارات تبعتنا او الموارد
+
+9
+00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:04,980
+تبعتنا the first one specify asset classes طب احنا
+
+10
+00:01:04,980 --> 00:01:08,840
+عرفنا ايش ال asset classes يعني الأدوات
+
+11
+00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:13,600
+الاستثمارية يعني في عندنا احنا stocks في عندنا
+
+12
+00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:19,300
+bondsفي عندنا treasury bills مثلا ال money markets
+
+13
+00:01:19,300 --> 00:01:21,580
+اجمالا ال money markets securities ال money
+
+14
+00:01:21,580 --> 00:01:27,030
+marketsOkay؟ ال stocks في عندها أنواع من ال stocks
+
+15
+00:01:27,030 --> 00:01:30,210
+و ال bonds في عندها أنواع من ال bonds ففي المرحلة
+
+16
+00:01:30,210 --> 00:01:32,610
+الأولى احنا specify asset classes ايش هي ال asset
+
+17
+00:01:32,610 --> 00:01:37,290
+classes ال available عندنا في ال .. في البلد يعني
+
+18
+00:01:37,290 --> 00:01:39,750
+مثلا في السؤال الأول أنا سألتكم إياه في السؤال
+
+19
+00:01:39,750 --> 00:01:45,110
+assignment حكينا لكم evaluate the investment
+
+20
+00:01:45,110 --> 00:01:49,040
+environment in Palestinian authorityفانا الهدف ان
+
+21
+00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,540
+اعرف هل انتوا بتقدروا تعرفوا ال asset classes اللي
+
+22
+00:01:51,540 --> 00:01:53,740
+متوفرة available in the Palestinian Authority ولا
+
+23
+00:01:53,740 --> 00:01:59,000
+لأ مابدناش تحكولنا عن البيئة بتاعة فلسطين و البحر
+
+24
+00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,400
+هذا بقى بالزمنة بالزمني the availability of
+
+25
+00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,020
+investments يعني لما واحد بده يعمل investment بده
+
+26
+00:02:04,020 --> 00:02:08,180
+أول شي يحط ال asset classes و بعدين and determine
+
+27
+00:02:08,180 --> 00:02:10,780
+the different types of stocks and if we have bonds
+
+28
+00:02:10,780 --> 00:02:14,180
+if we have money market instruments then after
+
+29
+00:02:14,180 --> 00:02:18,360
+that wespecify capital market expectations capital
+
+30
+00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,840
+market expectations evaluate each one بنعمل
+
+31
+00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,000
+evaluation لل stocks مثلا عندنا في ال income
+
+32
+00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:30,940
+stocks أمثلة في عندنا ال growth stocks في عندنا
+
+33
+00:02:30,940 --> 00:02:38,680
+مثلا اللي هو mixed growth and income بنعمل
+
+34
+00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:43,740
+evaluation إيش evaluation؟ بنشوف the future of the
+
+35
+00:02:43,740 --> 00:02:44,100
+stocks
+
+36
+00:02:53,990 --> 00:02:58,510
+بالقارن بين مجموعات مختلفة ثم نقرر أي مجموعة
+
+37
+00:02:58,510 --> 00:03:04,110
+مناسبة للميكروفيا لنا اذا يعني زي ما حكينا اول
+
+38
+00:03:04,110 --> 00:03:06,930
+خطوة specify asset classes نشوف ال asset classes
+
+39
+00:03:06,930 --> 00:03:12,030
+بعدين بنعمل capital market expectations نقرر
+
+40
+00:03:12,030 --> 00:03:14,130
+المستقبل ماهي الممكنة
+
+41
+00:03:16,620 --> 00:03:19,900
+expectations or the possible profits or the which
+
+42
+00:03:19,900 --> 00:03:25,160
+areas is more developed than the other areas يعني
+
+43
+00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:28,040
+احنا بنشوف المجالات الاستثمار متوفرة عندنا بنشوف
+
+44
+00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:32,060
+ايش المستقبل لأي مجال من مجالات الاستثمارات and
+
+45
+00:03:32,060 --> 00:03:37,320
+then we invest in .. in this يعني مثلا في
+
+46
+00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,390
+الاستثمارات اليوم في مجالات الطاقةكتير مهمة يعني
+
+47
+00:03:40,390 --> 00:03:43,550
+اليوم ال investments الاستثمارات في مجال ال .. ال
+
+48
+00:03:43,550 --> 00:03:48,070
+water مجالات الميه برضه كتير مهم الاستثمار فيها
+
+49
+00:03:48,070 --> 00:03:52,850
+اليوم مثلا بالمجالات ال .. ال environments ال
+
+50
+00:03:52,850 --> 00:03:55,970
+environment protections و الشغلات هذه برضه فيه صار
+
+51
+00:03:55,970 --> 00:03:58,810
+ال .. الطاقة البديلة صار في استثمارات قوية فيها
+
+52
+00:03:58,810 --> 00:04:05,930
+okay؟ في مثلا على international environments مثلا
+
+53
+00:04:05,930 --> 00:04:10,000
+ال Africaاستثمارات في ال .. في البرازيل في
+
+54
+00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,720
+Bangladesh يعني الصبح أنا كنت بخرق في .. في
+
+55
+00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,360
+Bangladesh بيزيدوا .. بيزيدوا الأجور ل .. للعاملين
+
+56
+00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:21,300
+في .. في مصانع الملابس عارفين أكم واحد بيشتغل في
+
+57
+00:04:21,300 --> 00:04:24,460
+ال .. في Bangladesh في .. في مصانع الملابس؟ أكم
+
+58
+00:04:24,460 --> 00:04:28,160
+بني آدم، أكم عامل؟ عشر، عشرين، متين، اتين ألف،
+
+59
+00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:36,250
+تلتمية ألف؟ كم؟ آه، تلتة مليون تقريبا آه، كيف؟بال
+
+60
+00:04:36,250 --> 00:04:39,150
+textiles و الشغلات هذه اه و ال fabric industries
+
+61
+00:04:39,150 --> 00:04:42,090
+فبدهم يقرروا او يقرروا يقرروا او يقرروا يقرروا
+
+62
+00:04:42,090 --> 00:04:43,050
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+63
+00:04:43,050 --> 00:04:43,990
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+64
+00:04:43,990 --> 00:04:45,170
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+65
+00:04:45,170 --> 00:04:47,410
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+66
+00:04:47,410 --> 00:04:55,910
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا ي
+
+67
+00:04:56,260 --> 00:04:59,120
+في مناطق الشرق أسيا كلهم بستثمروا كتير في موضوع
+
+68
+00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,920
+الملابس و ال textile و ال fabric industries فهذه
+
+69
+00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:09,080
+areas is underdeveloped يعني تحت ال .. تحت ال .. و
+
+70
+00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:12,900
+خاصة لأنه بتحتاج إلى في مناطق الشرق أسيا بتحتاج
+
+71
+00:05:12,900 --> 00:05:16,780
+إلى أيدي عاملة كتيريعني لما هم بدهم يصنعوا ملابس
+
+72
+00:05:16,780 --> 00:05:20,640
+بحتاج كتير أي داعي عاملة و في هذه المناطق، في
+
+73
+00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,560
+الهند، في .. في .. في الصين، في بنجالدش، في
+
+74
+00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,800
+باكستان، هدول is a good areas for investment in
+
+75
+00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,340
+textiles or textile industries لو احنا رجعنا
+
+76
+00:05:29,340 --> 00:05:33,040
+للخمسينات والستينات أو الأربعينات نجي في ال UK و
+
+77
+00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,980
+في European countries اللي كان textile industries
+
+78
+00:05:36,650 --> 00:05:40,490
+is one of the major influence area in the
+
+79
+00:05:40,490 --> 00:05:43,530
+investments يعني لو رجعنا لخمسين السبتنات كان ال
+
+80
+00:05:43,530 --> 00:05:46,490
+textile و هاي استثماراتها في أوروبا و في ال .. في
+
+81
+00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:50,130
+ال UK في بريطانيا كانت .. هي ال promising areas
+
+82
+00:05:50,130 --> 00:05:55,690
+فال .. ال areas اللي في ال .. اللي اليوم في الشرق
+
+83
+00:05:55,690 --> 00:06:00,830
+أسيا كانت كتير .. كتير promising areas نعطيكوا في
+
+84
+00:06:00,830 --> 00:06:03,870
+مجالات استثمار في العالم and we are talking about
+
+85
+00:06:03,870 --> 00:06:07,430
+the expected .. expected areas for investmentfor
+
+86
+00:06:07,430 --> 00:06:11,270
+instance in .. in .. in Africa يعني لو أنتوا
+
+87
+00:06:11,270 --> 00:06:16,090
+روحتوا نيجيريا مثلا in .. in the .. in the
+
+88
+00:06:16,090 --> 00:06:18,810
+industry .. the movies industries صناعة السينما ..
+
+89
+00:06:18,810 --> 00:06:21,750
+cinema industries طبعا في عندنا three .. three
+
+90
+00:06:21,750 --> 00:06:26,370
+main areas in the world invested in .. in cinemas
+
+91
+00:06:26,370 --> 00:06:29,770
+and movies industries يعني تلت أماكن في العالم
+
+92
+00:06:29,770 --> 00:06:34,170
+تنتج السينما في العالم أكبر أماكن لأنك هوليود و
+
+93
+00:06:34,170 --> 00:06:39,770
+بوليود و نيليودطبعا Hollywood احنا نعرفين is in
+
+94
+00:06:39,770 --> 00:06:44,390
+the United States وعنا Duluth in India وفينا Nilud
+
+95
+00:06:44,390 --> 00:06:50,650
+في نيجيريا، اه فهذه areas for .. يعني اليوم اخر ال
+
+96
+00:06:50,650 --> 00:06:55,430
+movies او الأفلام اللي تم تصنيعة هي أغلبها كانت في
+
+97
+00:06:55,430 --> 00:07:01,410
+نيجيرياامكانيات موجودة و رخص ID عاملة و في
+
+98
+00:07:01,410 --> 00:07:05,710
+environment و في بيئة و حتى يعني في بعض مناطق كتير
+
+99
+00:07:05,710 --> 00:07:09,510
+ساحرة في .. في .. في .. في أفريقيا و بتاع دي this
+
+100
+00:07:09,510 --> 00:07:13,310
+is a promising area so .. so when we are looking
+
+101
+00:07:13,310 --> 00:07:16,750
+at the .. the areas of .. to invest we have
+
+102
+00:07:16,750 --> 00:07:20,490
+sometimes we look at the local areas and we may
+
+103
+00:07:20,490 --> 00:07:23,130
+look at the international areasلذلك من المهم أن
+
+104
+00:07:23,130 --> 00:07:28,010
+نستخدم اتفاقات السوق حيث نستخدم مالنا في المجتمع
+
+105
+00:07:28,010 --> 00:07:32,790
+أو في المنطقة أو في المجتمع الدولي ثالثًا، تخلص من
+
+106
+00:07:32,790 --> 00:07:36,550
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+107
+00:07:36,550 --> 00:07:38,150
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+108
+00:07:38,150 --> 00:07:39,710
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+109
+00:07:39,710 --> 00:07:40,590
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+110
+00:07:40,590 --> 00:07:46,530
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+111
+00:07:46,530 --> 00:07:53,560
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلصOkay okay we select particular
+
+112
+00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:55,500
+companies here, particular companies here,
+
+113
+00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,700
+particular companies here and we forming up a
+
+114
+00:07:58,700 --> 00:08:02,940
+portfolio ممكن احنا نكون محفظة استثمارية حسب ال
+
+115
+00:08:02,940 --> 00:08:06,140
+areas اللي فيها استثمار يعني مثلا ممكن احنا شوفنا
+
+116
+00:08:06,140 --> 00:08:10,800
+في .. هعطيكم مثلا ال real estates ال promising
+
+117
+00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:12,800
+area تبع ال real estates في ال united states و في
+
+118
+00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,640
+ال UK و في بعض ال European countries is not
+
+119
+00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:20,020
+promising areasمش promising areas مش يعني مناطق
+
+120
+00:08:20,020 --> 00:08:23,900
+promising واعدة لكن لان شوف احنا بالعالم العربي
+
+121
+00:08:23,900 --> 00:08:28,820
+بتلاقي مثلا في ليبيا في تونس في الدول يعني ال ..
+
+122
+00:08:28,820 --> 00:08:31,880
+ال .. ال spring Arabic countries هنلاقي ان ال ..
+
+123
+00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,720
+ال .. هاي فيها promising areas حتى في فلسطين ان ال
+
+124
+00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:36,900
+promising areas في ال real .. ال real estate
+
+125
+00:08:36,900 --> 00:08:40,840
+industries يعني اللي هو العقارات فالعقارات is
+
+126
+00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:46,330
+promising area فممكن احنا نستثمر جزء من ال ..ال ..
+
+127
+00:08:46,330 --> 00:08:50,410
+ال .. يعني نحط real asset دايما ال .. ال portfolio
+
+128
+00:08:50,410 --> 00:08:54,810
+تبعتنا ممكن نحط stocks international stocks مثلا
+
+129
+00:08:54,810 --> 00:08:59,830
+في أفريقيا يعني أعطيكم مثال Vodafone أظن Vodafone
+
+130
+00:08:59,830 --> 00:09:06,370
+استثمرت في .. في جانا كان أكتر فرع بيربح إلهم في
+
+131
+00:09:06,370 --> 00:09:11,370
+العالم I think اه في جانا اتصور يعني don't
+
+132
+00:09:11,370 --> 00:09:14,510
+underestimate Africa
+
+133
+00:09:15,460 --> 00:09:20,120
+مات .. don't underestimate يعني ماتستهلوش فيها you
+
+134
+00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,040
+can become a millionaire in Africa if you just
+
+135
+00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:25,700
+invest your money it is high risk environments but
+
+136
+00:09:25,700 --> 00:09:28,560
+you can make a money in Africa
+
+137
+00:09:32,620 --> 00:09:36,160
+and .. so this is .. then you derive the efficient
+
+138
+00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,820
+portfolio based on the .. you put in this
+
+139
+00:09:38,820 --> 00:09:41,380
+portfolio different asset classes, different
+
+140
+00:09:41,380 --> 00:09:44,940
+investments, you can invest in the .. in the real
+
+141
+00:09:44,940 --> 00:09:47,400
+estate, you can invest in gold, you can invest in
+
+142
+00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:51,720
+the .. in textile industries, okay؟ يعني زي مثلا
+
+143
+00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,800
+في Bangladesh، في China، في ال .. هدول، كتير
+
+144
+00:09:54,800 --> 00:10:01,560
+promising areas، يعني مناطق أو ..مجالات كتير قوية
+
+145
+00:10:01,560 --> 00:10:06,600
+في الاستثمارات في العالم مي فرانسكو هيك استثمارات
+
+146
+00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:13,120
+as promising areas اه سوماليا اش ممكن تسفير دونها
+
+147
+00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:17,840
+ات شوفت لو يا بايا شفتنا اول .. اول محادرة .. اكبر
+
+148
+00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:22,220
+استثمارات في ال .. اه اه في ال banana اه شركة ..
+
+149
+00:10:22,220 --> 00:10:26,360
+شركة dollar اكبر شركة انتاج موز في العالم اه
+
+150
+00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:31,920
+الصومال طبعا .. اه الصومال أمه بياخد الموز و بيصد
+
+151
+00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:37,080
+.. بي .. بيصدروه ل .. ل .. لكافة أنحاء العالم طبعا
+
+152
+00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,680
+الصومال كمان، لا تنسوش أنه اليوم كمان investment
+
+153
+00:10:39,680 --> 00:10:44,380
+بال security، لا تنسوش، بال security، لأ بال
+
+154
+00:10:44,380 --> 00:10:48,220
+security .. security، الأمن، يعني اليوم ال .. ال
+
+155
+00:10:48,220 --> 00:10:50,980
+private companies الشركات الخاصة تستثمر كتير في
+
+156
+00:10:50,980 --> 00:10:54,580
+الأمن و من أهم شركات الأمن في العالم اللي هو ال ..
+
+157
+00:10:54,580 --> 00:11:00,490
+ال blackwaterو Blackwater طبعا شركة بتستثمر في ال
+
+158
+00:11:00,490 --> 00:11:05,930
+.. يعني زي اللي احنا بنسميهم مرتزقة يعني بياخدوهم
+
+159
+00:11:05,930 --> 00:11:09,890
+و .. و الجيوش في بعض الحالات .. في بعض الحالات بي
+
+160
+00:11:09,890 --> 00:11:14,430
+.. بنفذوا مهمات خاصة فهذه المهمات الخاصة مابودوش
+
+161
+00:11:14,430 --> 00:11:17,450
+الجيش تبعهم بودوا بعض الناس ال .. ال very
+
+162
+00:11:17,450 --> 00:11:20,230
+professional peoplevery very professional people
+
+163
+00:11:20,230 --> 00:11:24,650
+يعني بيكون عندهم إمكانيات كتير عالية and they
+
+164
+00:11:24,650 --> 00:11:28,150
+bought their life at risk because of moneyبحطوا
+
+165
+00:11:28,150 --> 00:11:31,510
+حياتهم تحت الخطر فيه؟ ليش؟ لأنه ممكن it costs the
+
+166
+00:11:31,510 --> 00:11:35,450
+country if they send their kids or their sons يعني
+
+167
+00:11:35,450 --> 00:11:38,070
+ممكن إنه تكلف الدول خاصة ال developed countries
+
+168
+00:11:38,070 --> 00:11:41,330
+الدول المتقدمة لما بيبعتوا ولادهم مثلا يروحوا
+
+169
+00:11:41,330 --> 00:11:44,750
+يحاربوا في some areas in Afghanistan، in Iraq، in
+
+170
+00:11:44,750 --> 00:11:47,650
+other countries sometimes when they send these
+
+171
+00:11:47,650 --> 00:11:53,230
+people or their sons and if they killed there they
+
+172
+00:11:53,230 --> 00:11:56,180
+have to pay insurance for themيعني إذا بيودوهم غد
+
+173
+00:11:56,180 --> 00:11:59,980
+و بيقتلوا غد فبيدفعوا لهم insurance تأمين ف
+
+174
+00:11:59,980 --> 00:12:02,240
+instead of paying insurance لأ في .. they are
+
+175
+00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,900
+hiring some people from the .. the .. the other
+
+176
+00:12:04,900 --> 00:12:07,460
+companies from the security companies فبروحوا هم
+
+177
+00:12:07,460 --> 00:12:13,200
+بتعاخدوا مع شركات .. شركات أمن خاصة فهم بس
+
+178
+00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,040
+بتفعولهم فلوس حتى لو قتلوا عشان ما .. ما لهمش دخل
+
+179
+00:12:16,660 --> 00:12:20,320
+يعني ممكن يدفع هم في ال insurance يعني as far as I
+
+180
+00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:24,320
+know they may pay millions of dollar to their
+
+181
+00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,820
+families يعني لو كانوا بعتوا هم أولادهم يحاربوا في
+
+182
+00:12:27,820 --> 00:12:30,940
+بعض ال .. يعني كانوا كتير في العراق يبعتوا ال ..
+
+183
+00:12:30,940 --> 00:12:35,400
+ال .. ال .. يبعتوا ال black waters هدول الناس اللي
+
+184
+00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:41,840
+بشركات الأمن و يعني ياخدوا .. ياخدوا ..ياخدوا فلوس
+
+185
+00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:46,920
+كويسة مقابل هذا الشغل لكن بتضالها أقل كلفة فيما هم
+
+186
+00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,960
+لو .. لو بعتوا ولاد البلد لأن ولاد البلد لو راحوا
+
+187
+00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:54,320
+وماتوا وقتلوا هيدفعولهم ملايين دولارات as an
+
+188
+00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:58,160
+insurance وحنحكي موضوع ال insurance كمان شبهين ف
+
+189
+00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,760
+.. so this is in past ف .. فال .. ال security
+
+190
+00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:04,440
+companies is a promising areas فممكن ناس استخمر في
+
+191
+00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:05,160
+هذه المجالات
+
+192
+00:13:08,770 --> 00:13:12,330
+Find the optimal asset mix بعد ما احنا بتشوف ال ..
+
+193
+00:13:12,330 --> 00:13:15,230
+ايش الشغلات اللي لازم نحطها بال .. بال portfolio
+
+194
+00:13:15,230 --> 00:13:18,890
+يعني انا عندى هاي ال portfolio او هادي و قررنا انه
+
+195
+00:13:18,890 --> 00:13:22,990
+احنا هنحط real assets real estate sorry estates و
+
+196
+00:13:22,990 --> 00:13:29,390
+هنحط stocks مثلا Egyptian stocks نحط مثلا Libyan
+
+197
+00:13:29,390 --> 00:13:33,690
+نستثمر في Libyan مثلا و نستثمر في ال gold و نستثمر
+
+198
+00:13:33,690 --> 00:13:34,430
+في ال textile
+
+199
+00:13:37,680 --> 00:13:41,240
+نستثمر في ال textile يعني في ال .. في الملابس و في
+
+200
+00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:46,360
+النسيج و في الأشياء هذه okay فلبس .. بدنا بعد ما
+
+201
+00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:48,960
+نقول أن هدول ال promising areas بتاعتنا هدول
+
+202
+00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:52,060
+المناطق ال promising اللي في المستحيل اللي هتكون
+
+203
+00:13:52,060 --> 00:13:56,820
+فيها تطور فبدنا نعمل ال optimal optimal asset mix
+
+204
+00:13:56,820 --> 00:14:01,920
+ال optimalit means قداش أنا أستثمر فيها يعني لو
+
+205
+00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,360
+أنا مثلا متوفر معايا مئة ألف دولار كام أستثمر هنا
+
+206
+00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:09,820
+و قداش أستثمر هنا طبعا ال optimal اللي هي بتعطيني
+
+207
+00:14:09,820 --> 00:14:16,300
+the higher return with with lower risk طبعا في
+
+208
+00:14:16,300 --> 00:14:20,860
+chapter اسمه optimalلأ هو تقريبا utility بس في
+
+209
+00:14:20,860 --> 00:14:24,100
+عندنا chapter شوية advance عليكم اعطيناه لل .. لل
+
+210
+00:14:24,100 --> 00:14:28,640
+MBA student اعطيناه لطلاب ال master بنحط ال ..
+
+211
+00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:30,960
+بنعرف إيش ال assets اللي احنا بنياها بنحطها في
+
+212
+00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,300
+equation بتطلعلي ال equation قداش أنا أستثمر في كل
+
+213
+00:14:33,300 --> 00:14:36,190
+واحدة منهميعني لو أنا مثلا معايا one hundred
+
+214
+00:14:36,190 --> 00:14:38,150
+thousand dollar how much I invest in real assets
+
+215
+00:14:38,150 --> 00:14:41,510
+or real estates, how much I invest in gold, how
+
+216
+00:14:41,510 --> 00:14:43,750
+much I invest in Libya, how much I invest in
+
+217
+00:14:43,750 --> 00:14:47,430
+Tunisia, how much I invest in the .. in the .. in
+
+218
+00:14:47,430 --> 00:14:50,270
+the energy industries, how much I invest in cinema
+
+219
+00:14:50,270 --> 00:14:54,670
+industries and so on okay فهذه المجالات اللي احنا
+
+220
+00:14:54,670 --> 00:14:58,890
+ممكن نستثمر .. نستثمر فيها و بعدين كدهش how much
+
+221
+00:14:58,890 --> 00:15:02,920
+we invest in eachيعني مانفعش انا اقول okay هاي ال
+
+222
+00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,220
+areas اللي انا هستثمر فيها and keep silent لأنه
+
+223
+00:15:06,220 --> 00:15:09,760
+تركيبة الأموال اللي انا هستثمر فيها هي بتعملي كمان
+
+224
+00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,720
+.. بتعملي maximizing to the expected rate of
+
+225
+00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:18,060
+return بتعملي maximizing تعظيم لل .. لكن لو انا
+
+226
+00:15:18,060 --> 00:15:21,420
+مثلا روحت .. ماستخدمتش ال optimal ممكن مااستفدش
+
+227
+00:15:21,420 --> 00:15:24,880
+كتير من ال .. من ال diversification
+
+228
+00:15:28,490 --> 00:15:32,190
+أكيد احنا هندفع taxes and I explained to you in
+
+229
+00:15:32,190 --> 00:15:36,330
+some instruments we may avoid taxes because some
+
+230
+00:15:36,330 --> 00:15:38,970
+instruments are tax exempted others are not tax
+
+231
+00:15:38,970 --> 00:15:44,410
+exempted so we consider taxes when we are managing
+
+232
+00:15:44,410 --> 00:15:51,770
+our portfoliosNow because this .. this course is a
+
+233
+00:15:51,770 --> 00:15:54,990
+foundation to investment يعني هذا ال .. ال course
+
+234
+00:15:54,990 --> 00:15:58,150
+اللي أنت بتاخدوه هو مقدمة .. مقدمة في الاستثمار
+
+235
+00:15:58,150 --> 00:16:01,150
+خدوا بارك و احنا بنحكي ما زلنا نحكي مقدمة استثمار
+
+236
+00:16:01,150 --> 00:16:04,290
+we are not talking in depth about investment اه
+
+237
+00:16:04,290 --> 00:16:06,670
+يعني so some people saying oh wow we still in the
+
+238
+00:16:06,670 --> 00:16:11,350
+foundation yes this is only foundation اه
+
+239
+00:16:16,010 --> 00:16:19,470
+Okay, so managing portfolio individual investors
+
+240
+00:16:19,470 --> 00:16:24,170
+هلأ ال individual investors يعني ال individual
+
+241
+00:16:24,170 --> 00:16:26,330
+investors اللي زيكوا و اللي زيين اعتبر individual
+
+242
+00:16:26,330 --> 00:16:32,070
+investors where بيستثمر؟ where they .. خليني أقول
+
+243
+00:16:32,070 --> 00:16:35,390
+why they invest خليني أنا أسألكم very simple
+
+244
+00:16:35,390 --> 00:16:40,770
+question why you invest السؤال بسيط يعني ليش احنا
+
+245
+00:16:40,770 --> 00:16:45,370
+ضروري ان احنا نستثمر مثلا و طب و ليش؟خليني أسمع
+
+246
+00:16:45,370 --> 00:16:50,070
+منكم طب و زدنا لأربعة so what يعني and you become
+
+247
+00:16:50,070 --> 00:16:54,690
+a millionaire then so what okay
+
+248
+00:16:54,690 --> 00:16:59,050
+the wealth what it means the wealth what it means
+
+249
+00:16:59,050 --> 00:17:00,770
+you have money you have millionaire you have
+
+250
+00:17:00,770 --> 00:17:03,270
+swimming pool you have everything in your life you
+
+251
+00:17:03,270 --> 00:17:10,550
+have gold everything you have so what for what
+
+252
+00:17:10,550 --> 00:17:13,370
+okay for what what's the future the future is
+
+253
+00:17:13,370 --> 00:17:17,310
+comingو اذا مستقبل مرتفع فما يمكننا فعله مع
+
+254
+00:17:17,310 --> 00:17:17,870
+المستقبل؟
+
+255
+00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:25,520
+Okay, when you are getting old, you cannot do
+
+256
+00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:29,280
+something that you've been doing before, so it's
+
+257
+00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:33,860
+fine to secure yourself in the future Yes,
+
+258
+00:17:34,020 --> 00:17:42,840
+this is one of the main reasons why we invest, not
+
+259
+00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:47,210
+because to get money or to make a profitso if you
+
+260
+00:17:47,210 --> 00:17:50,890
+have everything إذا إنا كل شيء so what it means ما
+
+261
+00:17:50,890 --> 00:17:53,250
+هو the poor people are living their life and the
+
+262
+00:17:53,250 --> 00:17:55,550
+rich people are living their own life and these
+
+263
+00:17:55,550 --> 00:17:57,770
+people are living their own life in their own ways
+
+264
+00:17:57,770 --> 00:17:59,310
+and these people are living their own life in
+
+265
+00:17:59,310 --> 00:18:04,830
+their own ways that's it احنا المشكلة عندنا أنه
+
+266
+00:18:04,830 --> 00:18:08,150
+احنا بدنا نقتل يعني امبارح كنت نقاش مع أحد
+
+267
+00:18:08,150 --> 00:18:15,130
+الأساتذة بقوله أنه أنه الفقير بيقتنع أنه فقيرand
+
+268
+00:18:15,130 --> 00:18:20,090
+enjoy in this life و ال .. و ال rich people they
+
+269
+00:18:20,090 --> 00:18:24,330
+لازم يقتنعوا أنهم أغنياء و يقتنعوا ب .. بغنائهم
+
+270
+00:18:24,330 --> 00:18:28,850
+لكن احنا مرات the opposite انه الغني مش مقنع أنه
+
+271
+00:18:28,850 --> 00:18:32,770
+غني و الفقير مش مقنع أنه فقير مثال بسيط يعني
+
+272
+00:18:32,770 --> 00:18:36,150
+بتلاقي مثلا فقير ماعندهش يجيب .. يجيب مثلا كيلو
+
+273
+00:18:36,150 --> 00:18:40,890
+عدس لأولاده مع mobile as free I saw some people
+
+274
+00:18:40,890 --> 00:18:47,820
+like this مظبوط ولا لأ؟إذا كيف .. كيف تشتري ..
+
+275
+00:18:47,820 --> 00:18:51,580
+تقوم بتخزين المال لتشتري هاتف موبايل S3 وفي نفس
+
+276
+00:18:51,580 --> 00:18:54,820
+الوقت ليس لديك المال لتقضيه على الطعام؟ إذا كيف؟
+
+277
+00:18:54,820 --> 00:19:01,780
+هل هو رجل غامض؟ لا، لكن في الحقيقة هو غامض. مثل
+
+278
+00:19:01,780 --> 00:19:06,860
+آخر .. مثل آخر .. أم ترسل طفلها .. حسنًا، أسأل
+
+279
+00:19:06,860 --> 00:19:11,610
+أبيك أن تشتري شيء من .. من .. من السوقOh dad I
+
+280
+00:19:11,610 --> 00:19:15,150
+don't have money and after two three seconds he
+
+281
+00:19:15,150 --> 00:19:20,910
+sent his kids to buy smoking or cigarettes الأم
+
+282
+00:19:20,910 --> 00:19:24,290
+تبعت الولد بتقوله روح قوله أبوك بدنا كيلو ملح
+
+283
+00:19:24,290 --> 00:19:29,930
+الأبو يقول روح ويقول أمك ماعناش مصاري في نفس الوقت
+
+284
+00:19:29,930 --> 00:19:34,330
+بعد تلت دقايق بيبعت ابنه يشيله دخانso this is the
+
+285
+00:19:34,330 --> 00:19:38,210
+problem أعطيكم مثال تاري for the .. for the .. for
+
+286
+00:19:38,210 --> 00:19:42,230
+the rich people الأغنية بتلاقي لو جاله على الشارع
+
+287
+00:19:42,230 --> 00:19:46,250
+في .. في إيش charity في إيش free اه روح يا ولد روح
+
+288
+00:19:46,250 --> 00:19:51,630
+جيه الميه ببلاش أو في ناس ب .. في .. في ناس قاعدين
+
+289
+00:19:51,630 --> 00:19:55,130
+ببيعوا ب .. بوزعوا ال honor وقاعدة بتوزع شغلات
+
+290
+00:19:55,130 --> 00:19:59,630
+يعني مثلاإيجي الصيف أو الشتاء fans بيوزعوا مراوح
+
+291
+00:19:59,630 --> 00:20:02,770
+للناس الفقراء روح صوف ع الدور جيب طب you are rich
+
+292
+00:20:02,770 --> 00:20:07,090
+man so you don't need this this is the problem so
+
+293
+00:20:07,090 --> 00:20:09,410
+the this is why I say okay if you have a money you
+
+294
+00:20:09,410 --> 00:20:13,510
+have everything but the problem is the the main
+
+295
+00:20:13,510 --> 00:20:18,090
+things the main things why we invest because human
+
+296
+00:20:18,090 --> 00:20:23,180
+capitalwhat it means human capital ان احنا نطور في
+
+297
+00:20:23,180 --> 00:20:26,360
+ال human capital تبعنا a human is fine if you just
+
+298
+00:20:26,360 --> 00:20:31,540
+hide this we are human we are human but what it
+
+299
+00:20:31,540 --> 00:20:35,740
+means a human capital it means we have a wealthy
+
+300
+00:20:35,740 --> 00:20:39,860
+human man or human body or a wealthy lady for
+
+301
+00:20:39,860 --> 00:20:46,740
+instance يعني بن آدم يعني بتوزن educated so spend
+
+302
+00:20:46,740 --> 00:20:50,470
+in education is very importantI don't mean
+
+303
+00:20:50,470 --> 00:20:52,610
+education is just primary school and secondary
+
+304
+00:20:52,610 --> 00:20:55,590
+school and other things education is education how
+
+305
+00:20:55,590 --> 00:20:58,530
+for instance even the mechanical people حتى الناس
+
+306
+00:20:58,530 --> 00:21:01,770
+اللي بيصلحوا السيارات they should be educated what
+
+307
+00:21:01,770 --> 00:21:06,950
+it means educated that the level help them to do
+
+308
+00:21:06,950 --> 00:21:10,150
+some advanced mechanical things to the people
+
+309
+00:21:10,150 --> 00:21:14,430
+calledيعني يكون هم متعلمين بحيث لو إجت سيارة واحد،
+
+310
+00:21:14,430 --> 00:21:17,570
+شوفوا كيف بتأثر بال investments، لو إجت سيارة واحد
+
+311
+00:21:17,570 --> 00:21:21,210
+و هذا البن آدم بيعرفش أنه للسيارة هذه، لكن فاتح
+
+312
+00:21:21,210 --> 00:21:24,210
+مكانيكا، هيصلح، وبعد يومين تخرب، هذا البن آدم راح
+
+313
+00:21:24,210 --> 00:21:27,610
+ي .. ي .. يروح يشتري خطأ غير جديد و يتخرب كام مرة
+
+314
+00:21:27,610 --> 00:21:30,430
+و تلات مرة و رابع مرة، so بيصير هضر في الم .. في
+
+315
+00:21:30,430 --> 00:21:33,720
+.. في أموال الدولةلكن if we have educated people
+
+316
+00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,500
+أنا ما بقصد educated people just educated people
+
+317
+00:21:36,500 --> 00:21:40,480
+just know how to read and write لأ education in
+
+318
+00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:44,460
+everything لأن حسب الأبحاث الأخيرة كل ما كان ال ..
+
+319
+00:21:44,460 --> 00:21:47,060
+ال .. ال .. ال social ال .. ال .. ال people are
+
+320
+00:21:47,060 --> 00:21:53,120
+educated ال cost بتبدأ تنخفض okay و and they are
+
+321
+00:21:53,120 --> 00:21:57,400
+wisely use their wealth و كمان هم بيسيروا بحكمة
+
+322
+00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:03,650
+يستخدموا ال .. ال worth تبعتهم okaySo أهم
+
+323
+00:22:03,650 --> 00:22:06,850
+الاستثمارات ال why we invest particularly يعني
+
+324
+00:22:06,850 --> 00:22:09,930
+أنتوا in the .. بآخر سنة أو بتصور تالت سنة أو ان
+
+325
+00:22:09,930 --> 00:22:12,330
+شاء الله بكرا بتيروا أمهات و أباء و أولياء أمور
+
+326
+00:22:12,330 --> 00:22:16,430
+فجزء من الثروة تبعتكم لازم saving يصير فيها عشان
+
+327
+00:22:16,430 --> 00:22:17,770
+to educate your kids.
+
+328
+00:22:20,410 --> 00:22:24,420
+جدّيش احنا بننفق على التعليم؟احنا معانا مدارس
+
+329
+00:22:24,420 --> 00:22:27,540
+الوكالة ومدارس الحكومة it's free لكن how much you
+
+330
+00:22:27,540 --> 00:22:31,880
+spend in your house for education جداش احنا بنصرف
+
+331
+00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,140
+فلوس على أولادنا عشان نعلمهم، جداش احنا بنساعدهم،
+
+332
+00:22:35,140 --> 00:22:37,700
+جداش احنا we treat .. treat them to .. to motivate
+
+333
+00:22:37,700 --> 00:22:40,260
+them to educate or to .. to .. to know about
+
+334
+00:22:40,260 --> 00:22:42,920
+things، جداش احنا بنشيلهم قصص في البيت، جداش
+
+335
+00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:47,320
+بنشيلهم كتب، جداش بناخدهم على مكاتب عامة، جداش ..
+
+336
+00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,680
+this is a part of education not just only the
+
+337
+00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:54,340
+going to schoolيالاش احنا بناخدهم مثلا .. مثلا
+
+338
+00:22:54,340 --> 00:22:57,400
+بمكان and to see this is the life look at this
+
+339
+00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:01,020
+look at this this is education education it
+
+340
+00:23:01,020 --> 00:23:04,500
+doesn't mean just only to go to school مش بس احنا
+
+341
+00:23:04,500 --> 00:23:10,880
+نروح على school okay يعني انا .. يعني this is what
+
+342
+00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,620
+exactly means when you read around education in
+
+343
+00:23:13,620 --> 00:23:16,660
+this particular book education is for developments
+
+344
+00:23:16,660 --> 00:23:21,580
+education not developmentsل .. ل .. لتطوير الدولة
+
+345
+00:23:21,580 --> 00:23:25,460
+و تطوير المجتمع، التعليم بالأخلاق تمام، نعلمهم
+
+346
+00:23:25,460 --> 00:23:29,300
+الأخلاق، نعلمهم الأدب، كله هذا بالأخير، لأنه خلينا
+
+347
+00:23:29,300 --> 00:23:33,460
+نفكر بتفكير بسيط، إذا الولاد مش مقدّبين، الولاد ما
+
+348
+00:23:33,460 --> 00:23:36,060
+عندهم مش أخلاق، ممكن هم يروحوا يسرجوا، يسويوا،
+
+349
+00:23:36,060 --> 00:23:39,380
+يعملواوبالتالي كده هتكلف الأب و الأم و كده هتكلف
+
+350
+00:23:39,380 --> 00:23:42,960
+الدولة و كده هتكلف الهدف وبالتالي كله cost فالهدف
+
+351
+00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,820
+أنه احنا نخفض التكليف طب هذا الولد لما يكون he has
+
+352
+00:23:46,820 --> 00:23:49,900
+a good experience و عنده شغل ممكن نروح مثلا نشوف
+
+353
+00:23:49,900 --> 00:23:53,980
+في بعض الدول ال human capital is important يعني
+
+354
+00:23:53,980 --> 00:23:59,720
+مثلا for instance in Jordan في كان شعار مرفوع
+
+355
+00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:05,640
+الإنسان أغلى ما نملكmajority of graduated people
+
+356
+00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,980
+in Jordan يعني بالأردن أغلب الناس بتتخرج و بروح و
+
+357
+00:24:08,980 --> 00:24:11,200
+بشتغلوا في دول الخليج العربي، بشتغلوا في أوروبا و
+
+358
+00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:15,680
+هذا فهدول في مرة مرة كانت سواء الأردن هي دونا
+
+359
+00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,660
+نفطية بدون نفط، مين النفط طبعا؟ هم الناس المتعلمين
+
+360
+00:24:20,550 --> 00:24:22,990
+فتصوروا لو يكون عندنا ناس professional people
+
+361
+00:24:22,990 --> 00:24:28,290
+متعلمين و بيروحوا بي .. بي .. بينافسوا ال .. ال ..
+
+362
+00:24:28,290 --> 00:24:30,850
+الولاد الآخرين في ال .. في العالم فهي بيكون في ..
+
+363
+00:24:30,850 --> 00:24:33,730
+في .. في .. فلوس تقفل في البلد روحوا إذا حد فيه
+
+364
+00:24:33,730 --> 00:24:36,650
+راح على الكويت أو على الإمارات أو على السعودية أو
+
+365
+00:24:36,650 --> 00:24:40,070
+حتى على بعض الدول في أوروبا في ألمانيا في ..
+
+366
+00:24:40,070 --> 00:24:42,870
+هتلاقي إنه الباكستانيين و الهنود و كذا اللي هم
+
+367
+00:24:42,870 --> 00:24:47,710
+مجول add educated في ناس educated so this is .. is
+
+368
+00:24:47,710 --> 00:24:51,950
+.. is a very important area to investlook at the
+
+369
+00:24:51,950 --> 00:24:55,810
+education as investment tool يعني انظر لل
+
+370
+00:24:55,810 --> 00:24:59,050
+education ك investment tool مش انه انا بس growing
+
+371
+00:24:59,050 --> 00:25:02,570
+up kids لأنه انا اذا spend your money you spend
+
+372
+00:25:02,570 --> 00:25:07,850
+now your money on your kids in the future this kid
+
+373
+00:25:07,850 --> 00:25:12,850
+has a promising future اخلش احنا مابدناش ندفعله
+
+374
+00:25:12,850 --> 00:25:18,130
+فلوس هو he knows how to do fishing يعني هو don't
+
+375
+00:25:19,810 --> 00:25:24,750
+يعني او خلينا نحكي treat or help your kids to know
+
+376
+00:25:24,750 --> 00:25:29,190
+how to do fishing يعني خدوهم على البحر علموهم ان
+
+377
+00:25:29,190 --> 00:25:32,510
+هما يسطادوا then they do it in the future by
+
+378
+00:25:32,510 --> 00:25:37,270
+themselves ف this is .. this is a very important
+
+379
+00:25:37,270 --> 00:25:45,070
+area for investment ما شاء الله ما شاء الله فهي
+
+380
+00:25:45,070 --> 00:25:47,550
+.. هاي مناطق كويسة ان احنا نعمل investment فيها ال
+
+381
+00:25:47,550 --> 00:25:50,810
+educationa human capital and insurance ال
+
+382
+00:25:50,810 --> 00:25:55,630
+insurance أنه نعمل زي ما حكت تأمين له تأمين على
+
+383
+00:25:55,630 --> 00:26:01,600
+الحياة لأنه في المستقبل we don't knowو في عندنا
+
+384
+00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,940
+أنواع كتير من التأمين عادة
+
+385
+00:26:05,940 --> 00:26:10,900
+في التأمين الشركات بيقطع جزء من التأمين و بيعملوا
+
+386
+00:26:10,900 --> 00:26:13,780
+في ال pension funds بيستثمروها و كمان الشركة بتضيف
+
+387
+00:26:13,780 --> 00:26:17,280
+جزء من المقطوع يعني مثلا بيقطع من الراتب الواحد 5%
+
+388
+00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:22,380
+الشركة بتضيف كمان 5% او 10% بيصير عنده 15% هذا كل
+
+389
+00:26:22,380 --> 00:26:27,040
+شهر بيقطع من الراتب as insuranceلما طبعا يحلع
+
+390
+00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:32,580
+التقاعد تبدأ يتم استرجاع هذه المبالغ بمضاعفاتها
+
+391
+00:26:32,580 --> 00:26:36,100
+بحيث أنه هذا يستفيد من ال insurance investment in
+
+392
+00:26:36,100 --> 00:26:40,300
+residence برضه هذا استثمار مهم كتير ال residence
+
+393
+00:26:40,300 --> 00:26:46,920
+أن هو أنه احنا نوفر مكان اقامة يعني بتلاقي ان
+
+394
+00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:54,060
+الواحد بيشتغل وكذا وإشي وممكن يعني ماعنده بيتففي
+
+395
+00:26:54,060 --> 00:26:57,000
+ال individual people they should focus first on as
+
+396
+00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,960
+I said in education و لازم تانيك همان يركزوا على
+
+397
+00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,620
+ال .. ال .. المكان الإقامة تبعهم إذا كان عندك بيت
+
+398
+00:27:04,620 --> 00:27:07,120
+بالإجار انت تفكر how to invest to have your own
+
+399
+00:27:07,120 --> 00:27:13,120
+house لأنه كل ما احنا ال .. عشان تصير رفاهية عشان
+
+400
+00:27:13,120 --> 00:27:15,580
+تصير رفاهية يعني أنا سألتكوا في البداية طب و
+
+401
+00:27:15,580 --> 00:27:17,080
+course is so what you have money you have
+
+402
+00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,520
+everything and you are not educated you don't know
+
+403
+00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,880
+what it means exactly education is .. is .. is a
+
+404
+00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,540
+part of cultureالثقافة يعني you are not educated
+
+405
+00:27:25,540 --> 00:27:29,140
+if you are not treated your neighbor nicely انت مش
+
+406
+00:27:29,140 --> 00:27:33,200
+انسان educated اذا انت بتأذي الجيران because
+
+407
+00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,720
+education is a process is not just stuffing the
+
+408
+00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,620
+knowledge in your mind مش انه احنا بس بنحط ال
+
+409
+00:27:39,620 --> 00:27:43,220
+knowledge في رأسنا و بنعبل knowledge و that's it
+
+410
+00:27:43,220 --> 00:27:49,370
+it is a behavior هو سلوكسلوك حضاري okay ف
+
+411
+00:27:49,370 --> 00:27:53,410
+investment in residence انه احنا نستثمر فيه انه
+
+412
+00:27:53,410 --> 00:27:58,790
+يكون عندنا مكان لل .. للسكن مكان للإقامة و في ناس
+
+413
+00:27:58,790 --> 00:28:02,930
+مثلا اه .. فهذا ايه بيعمل .. بيعمل افضل لما يكون
+
+414
+00:28:02,930 --> 00:28:08,290
+الانسان .. و بيعمل تطور و بعدين المثل بيقول العشب
+
+415
+00:28:08,290 --> 00:28:12,790
+grass is not growing in the running rocket يعني
+
+416
+00:28:12,790 --> 00:28:17,310
+العشب لا ينمو على صخرة متدهرجةyou know what it
+
+417
+00:28:17,310 --> 00:28:24,030
+means؟ العشب لا ينمو على دجرة .. على صخرة متدهرجة
+
+418
+00:28:24,030 --> 00:28:28,710
+يعني هلأ لو أجينا احنا هذه الصخرة بتدهرج و حطينا
+
+419
+00:28:28,710 --> 00:28:34,190
+عليها ميه بيجي عشب عليها؟ لكن if this is fixed and
+
+420
+00:28:34,190 --> 00:28:38,510
+you water it ممكن ينمو العشب على هذه الصخرة لو إن
+
+421
+00:28:38,510 --> 00:28:42,990
+مكان عايش فيه exactly و خاصة هذا residence فبيكون
+
+422
+00:28:42,990 --> 00:28:47,680
+في .. بيصير في growing up و بيصير في ..في
+
+423
+00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:52,320
+inspiration and other things هدى areas جديدة كمان
+
+424
+00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:56,180
+في انه انت how to invest I'm talking about now
+
+425
+00:28:56,180 --> 00:28:59,700
+individual investments انا بحكي عن ال individual
+
+426
+00:28:59,700 --> 00:29:03,320
+investment استثمارات الشخصية مش استثمارات الشركات
+
+427
+00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,960
+طبعا في مادة اسمها personal finance طبعا احنا مش
+
+428
+00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,700
+موجودة عندنا بالعالم العربي اسمها personal finance
+
+429
+00:29:09,700 --> 00:29:12,700
+ايش personal finance يعني how to manage your
+
+430
+00:29:12,700 --> 00:29:18,340
+finance كيف انتوا تديروا أموالكمكيف احنا معايا
+
+431
+00:29:18,340 --> 00:29:21,240
+مصارى كيف اديرها؟ و انا student يعني انتوا هلأ
+
+432
+00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:25,840
+student بتشتغلوش بس still you have something in
+
+433
+00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,100
+your hands how to invest in this كيف احنا ممكن
+
+434
+00:29:29,100 --> 00:29:32,940
+نستثمر هذه الأشياء? saving for retirement and the
+
+435
+00:29:32,940 --> 00:29:38,960
+assumption of riskال .. ال .. الاستثمار من أجل ال
+
+436
+00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:44,060
+.. ال retirement .. ال .. التقاعد و .. واحتمالات
+
+437
+00:29:44,060 --> 00:29:47,180
+الخطر يعني واحد مثلا الله سبحان الله كان في الطريق
+
+438
+00:29:47,180 --> 00:29:52,280
+و صار حادث سيارة واحد مثلا في طائرة و صار مشكلة
+
+439
+00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:56,120
+واحد مثلا يعني بصير مخاطر معينة في .. في .. في
+
+440
+00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,540
+الحياة راح .. راح زار دولة معينة و كان فيها كوليرة
+
+441
+00:29:58,540 --> 00:30:03,200
+و إلى أخرها و .. and he's .. he's infected ف ..
+
+442
+00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:07,860
+يعني زي ما يقولوها القرش الأبيض بينفع بال .. ولا
+
+443
+00:30:07,860 --> 00:30:11,700
+تجعل يدك مغلولة إلى عنقك ولا تبسطها كل البسط يعني
+
+444
+00:30:11,700 --> 00:30:14,840
+هذا saving يعني okay لازم الواحد يكون عنده شوية
+
+445
+00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:19,080
+saving و .. عشان المستقبل retirement planning
+
+446
+00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,800
+models في عندنا retirement planning models في
+
+447
+00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:26,680
+عندنا عدة models أو وسائل لنعمل retirement
+
+448
+00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:31,460
+planning موجودين في .. نعطيكوا إياه
+
+449
+00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,160
+في عندنا قدة أنواع من retirement planning
+
+450
+00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:44,840
+فبتشوفوها
+
+451
+00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:54,260
+في صفحة 970 صفحة
+
+452
+00:30:54,260 --> 00:30:58,460
+970 manage
+
+453
+00:30:58,460 --> 00:31:02,100
+your own portfolio or rely on others manage your
+
+454
+00:31:02,100 --> 00:31:07,530
+own portfolio يعنيممكن انت تعمل محفظة استثمارية
+
+455
+00:31:07,530 --> 00:31:14,730
+لوحدك يعني شوفوا كيف يعني خلاني احكي مثلا سهم بلد
+
+456
+00:31:14,730 --> 00:31:20,810
+تجدش تمانعه اربع دولار خمس دولار عشر دولار عشر
+
+457
+00:31:20,810 --> 00:31:25,970
+دولار نفترض نفترض ترضه في عندنا أسهم في السوق
+
+458
+00:31:25,970 --> 00:31:27,870
+الفلسطيني الأوراق المالية two dollar و three
+
+459
+00:31:27,870 --> 00:31:32,710
+dollars just فكروا لو احنا فكرنا انتوا فكرتوا
+
+460
+00:31:32,710 --> 00:31:38,080
+لحاجة to do this investmentبتصور يعني أنه ممكن
+
+461
+00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:42,920
+يصير فيه إشي نعطيكوا مثال بسيط، هلأ لو شركة Paltel
+
+462
+00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,440
+ثمنها تلاتة دولار و نص أو أربعة دولار okay؟
+
+463
+00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,800
+الأربعة دولار في تلاتة شاكل و نص، يعني نحكي لنفتر
+
+464
+00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:55,060
+ست عشر .. خمس عشر شاكل، خمس عشر شاكل، سهم واحد،
+
+465
+00:31:55,060 --> 00:32:01,220
+خمس عشر شاكل، يعني بالشهر لو احنا .. لو وفرنا مية
+
+466
+00:32:01,220 --> 00:32:06,540
+و خمسين شاكل، نشتري عشر أسهم، صح؟طيب هذا العشرة
+
+467
+00:32:06,540 --> 00:32:10,000
+أسهم لو احنا فكرنا كل شهر يعني انا بتصور انه ممكن
+
+468
+00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:15,360
+.. ممكن احنا نوفر بالمتوسط اتوفروا خمس أسهم بالشهر
+
+469
+00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:19,240
+نهجة نقول يعني خمسة سبعي شاكل لو كل شهر وفرتوا
+
+470
+00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,900
+هالخمس أسهم هدول انا بتوقع and leave them after
+
+471
+00:32:21,900 --> 00:32:24,920
+ten years خليهم .. سيبقوا هنا بدة عشر سنين يعني do
+
+472
+00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:31,240
+this after ten years I think هتسألوا انه هتكونوا
+
+473
+00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:38,870
+من الناس اللي معاكم فلوسtrust me يعني شوفوا خمسة و
+
+474
+00:32:38,870 --> 00:32:42,770
+سبعين شاكل الخمسة و سبعين شاكل لو احنا حسبناهم
+
+475
+00:32:42,770 --> 00:32:46,050
+حسبة بسيطة يعني انا بشوف ناس بنجوسين يعني انا
+
+476
+00:32:46,050 --> 00:32:48,870
+مابقبل التدخين ان انا شوفت واحد بدخن باليوم
+
+477
+00:32:48,870 --> 00:32:51,930
+القلبتين دخان يعني كدهش القلبتين دخان عشرة شاكل
+
+478
+00:32:51,930 --> 00:32:55,230
+عشرين شاكل عشرين شاكل اضربهم في تلاتين يوم هي
+
+479
+00:32:55,230 --> 00:32:59,270
+ستمية شاكل يعني هذا البناء ادم ابقى ستمية شاكل اكم
+
+480
+00:32:59,270 --> 00:33:03,430
+سهم بيقدر يشتري احسب
+
+481
+00:33:03,430 --> 00:33:08,800
+خمستاشر شاكل120 سهم 120 سهم بتعرفوا ال 120 سهم
+
+482
+00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:13,300
+هدول لو عمل نصهم بالشهر اشتراهم لمدة عشر سنة شو
+
+483
+00:33:13,300 --> 00:33:19,240
+بيصير؟ بيصير مليونار اه اه just think in this way
+
+484
+00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:23,840
+فكروا بالطريقة هذه و خاصة ان ال inflation كمان
+
+485
+00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,820
+التضخم طبعا
+
+486
+00:33:31,500 --> 00:33:34,380
+اتصور إنه كان متر الأرض قبل عشر سنين جداش واليوم
+
+487
+00:33:34,380 --> 00:33:39,740
+جداش، طبعا؟ يعني just think on this way فكروا بها
+
+488
+00:33:39,740 --> 00:33:42,700
+بطريقة هذه، اتصوروا إن شركة ياهو كانت في اليوم
+
+489
+00:33:42,700 --> 00:33:47,340
+والأيام ثمنها دولار واحد، فكروا جوجل كانت في اليوم
+
+490
+00:33:47,340 --> 00:33:53,260
+والأيام ثمنها دولار، في شركة كانت red call الآن
+
+491
+00:33:53,260 --> 00:33:56,500
+ثمنها تلاتمائية وخمسين دولار بدأت بدولار واحد، one
+
+492
+00:33:56,500 --> 00:34:03,380
+dollar350 دولار تصوروا أنت شاري ألف سهم ب ألف
+
+493
+00:34:03,380 --> 00:34:09,500
+دولار صاروا جداش 350 ألف دولار بقى this is long
+
+494
+00:34:09,500 --> 00:34:12,780
+term investment يعني مش تروح تقول والله أستاذ حاجة
+
+495
+00:34:12,780 --> 00:34:16,080
+هيك تروح تاني يوم تبيعه هتخسره بس I'm talking
+
+496
+00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,960
+about long term investment أنا بحكي على استثمارات
+
+497
+00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:25,160
+توريد أجلmanage your own portfolio or rely on
+
+498
+00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,400
+others طب إيش مش قادرين أنتوا مش فاضيين تديروا
+
+499
+00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:31,380
+محافظكم خلوا أخرين يدروا لكم خاصة في شركات
+
+500
+00:34:31,380 --> 00:34:35,020
+الاستثمارات في في أوروبا في أو في الولايات المتحدة
+
+501
+00:34:35,020 --> 00:34:39,720
+الأمريكية في دول الخليج العربي كمان في دول الخليج
+
+502
+00:34:39,720 --> 00:34:44,880
+العربي برضه في في الأردن في في مصر في شركات
+
+503
+00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:50,480
+استثمار مهمتها أن هي تدير هذه الاستثمارات okayطبعا
+
+504
+00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,540
+احنا we are not talking ان انت you are millionaire
+
+505
+00:34:53,540 --> 00:34:57,040
+هدول الناس اللي ال .. ال .. الناس اللي ال .. ال
+
+506
+00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,160
+millionaire people اصلا they are starting from the
+
+507
+00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,820
+very scratch from the very beginning from zero
+
+508
+00:35:01,820 --> 00:35:09,340
+many people they not born from rich families كتير
+
+509
+00:35:09,340 --> 00:35:14,980
+ناس مانولدوش من عائلات اصلا غنية اه بالظبط that's
+
+510
+00:35:14,980 --> 00:35:18,280
+think on this حوروا .. اذا حطوا في بالكم education
+
+511
+00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:22,470
+is important areaالتعليم هو is important area for
+
+512
+00:35:22,470 --> 00:35:26,750
+education for the developments و خاصة the .. the
+
+513
+00:35:26,750 --> 00:35:29,010
+.. the competition in education شوفوا ال areas تبع
+
+514
+00:35:29,010 --> 00:35:31,450
+ال education اللي فيها development و promising
+
+515
+00:35:31,450 --> 00:35:38,330
+areas مهمة كتير ال investment in residence ال
+
+516
+00:35:38,330 --> 00:35:41,190
+houses و الشغلات الاستثمر في ال houses و المكان
+
+517
+00:35:41,190 --> 00:35:46,430
+اللي فانا retirement التقاعد و المخاطر المستقبلية
+
+518
+00:35:46,430 --> 00:35:50,830
+manage your own portfolio and rely on otherstax
+
+519
+00:35:50,830 --> 00:35:57,570
+sheltering for invisible investors ال tax
+
+520
+00:35:57,570 --> 00:36:02,350
+sheltering مش كتير احنا هنركز عليها احنا ها في ال
+
+521
+00:36:02,350 --> 00:36:08,570
+investment لأنه يعني هاي خاصة معادل الكتاب حسب
+
+522
+00:36:08,570 --> 00:36:13,340
+القوانين الأمريكيةال pension funds ال pension
+
+523
+00:36:13,340 --> 00:36:16,720
+funds صناديخ التقاعد ايه صناديخ التقاعد صناديخ
+
+524
+00:36:16,720 --> 00:36:20,840
+التقاعد بدأت ايه تسوي صناديخ التقاعد يعني just انه
+
+525
+00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:25,740
+تاخد ال investors بتاخد منهم مثلا خمسين دولار
+
+526
+00:36:25,740 --> 00:36:30,820
+بالشهر ال pension funds هدول صاروا من اقوى صناديخ
+
+527
+00:36:30,820 --> 00:36:33,700
+الاستثمار و صاروا تملك شركات كبيرة في العالم هدول
+
+528
+00:36:33,700 --> 00:36:35,760
+جاعدين يساعدون على اقتصاد العالم ال pension funds
+
+529
+00:36:37,090 --> 00:36:40,830
+أه صندوق التقاعد يعني شوفوا أكام موظف موجود في
+
+530
+00:36:40,830 --> 00:36:44,970
+العالم، يا ديش تم اقتطاع من رواتبهم؟ و أين هدول
+
+531
+00:36:44,970 --> 00:36:48,770
+بيروحوا بيعملوا investments؟ يعني لو أنتوا تصوروا
+
+532
+00:36:48,770 --> 00:36:54,210
+أنه الناس اللي عندنا hand بدل ما هم ي .. ي ..
+
+533
+00:36:54,210 --> 00:36:56,750
+يروحوا يضيعوا الفلوس تبعتهم، في ناس كتير بتضيع
+
+534
+00:36:56,750 --> 00:37:02,590
+الفلوس على شغلات مش لازمة يعني، هدول إيش بيصير؟ لو
+
+535
+00:37:02,590 --> 00:37:08,180
+هدول عملنا لهم investmentو تم في شركات بتاخد ال
+
+536
+00:37:08,180 --> 00:37:10,620
+pensions هدول بتاخد الأموال هذه و بتعمل ال channel
+
+537
+00:37:10,620 --> 00:37:14,480
+الشركات الأملاقة الكبيرة و الضحمة هذه من وين إجت؟
+
+538
+00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,660
+هذه من ال one dollar و ال one hundred dollar إجت
+
+539
+00:37:17,660 --> 00:37:22,840
+من ال one dollar و ال one hundred dollar ففي
+
+540
+00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,420
+.. في برنامج اسمه .. اسمه the poorest of the poor
+
+541
+00:37:25,420 --> 00:37:28,520
+و أنا إلاقة في ال .. في هذا البرنامج في .. في
+
+542
+00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:33,900
+Bangladesh و حتى إجت ناس ال .. ال .. ال ..اللي
+
+543
+00:37:33,900 --> 00:37:37,600
+كانت إلها دور هي و Youness، Youness هو أخد جائزة
+
+544
+00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:41,520
+novel في إنشاء هذا ال investment bank أو اللي
+
+545
+00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:46,040
+يسمونه Grameen Bank هذا .. they targeted .. they
+
+546
+00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:50,100
+targeted the poorest of the poor عارفين؟ هذا بس
+
+547
+00:37:50,100 --> 00:37:53,740
+بيعمل investment في ال the poorest of the poor you
+
+548
+00:37:53,740 --> 00:37:56,680
+know what it means؟ أفقر الفقراء، فقراء، بس
+
+549
+00:37:56,680 --> 00:38:00,800
+بيستهدف .. اليوم هذول الناس they own 16 companies
+
+550
+00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:04,630
+one of the largest companies in Bangladeshديهم
+
+551
+00:38:04,630 --> 00:38:09,590
+هدول الناس إلهم أكبر ست عشر شركة في بنجلدش، تصور
+
+552
+00:38:09,590 --> 00:38:15,350
+وين؟ the poorest of the poor، أفقر فخرة، يعني the
+
+553
+00:38:15,350 --> 00:38:18,970
+problem is sometimes why poor are poor because
+
+554
+00:38:18,970 --> 00:38:23,650
+sometimes they want to be poorيعني هذه الدراسة
+
+555
+00:38:23,650 --> 00:38:27,170
+عملت في .. في .. في بعض المناطق في .. أظن في
+
+556
+00:38:27,170 --> 00:38:30,790
+السودان او في دولة من الدول الأفريقية the main
+
+557
+00:38:30,790 --> 00:38:35,170
+question is why poor are poor؟ ليش الفقراء هم
+
+558
+00:38:35,170 --> 00:38:38,650
+فقراء؟ in .. in .. in .. the majority of the
+
+559
+00:38:38,650 --> 00:38:41,950
+questions say because they want to be poor كانوا
+
+560
+00:38:41,950 --> 00:38:47,250
+يعطوه مثل انه الرجال يضلوا قاعد في البيت مابدوش
+
+561
+00:38:47,250 --> 00:38:51,770
+يشتغل so he .. he .. he should be poor very simple
+
+562
+00:38:53,250 --> 00:38:57,730
+أه very simple يعني أنه يعني مرات ال poorest of
+
+563
+00:38:57,730 --> 00:39:01,630
+the poor مرات something are off their hands مرات
+
+564
+00:39:01,630 --> 00:39:05,430
+بيكون هدول الناس off their hands حاجات خارج عن
+
+565
+00:39:05,430 --> 00:39:09,390
+إطارهم و عن إمكانيات ممكن يكونوا poor لكن حسب
+
+566
+00:39:09,390 --> 00:39:13,250
+الدراسة هاي بتحكي أن ال poorest of the poor they
+
+567
+00:39:13,250 --> 00:39:15,940
+want to be poor because they want to be poorلأن
+
+568
+00:39:15,940 --> 00:39:19,040
+هما بدهم يكونوا هيك بعض الناس they don't send
+
+569
+00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:22,020
+their kids to the schools شوفوا كده بودوش ال kids
+
+570
+00:39:22,020 --> 00:39:25,220
+تبعهم I know them personally أنا بعرف some
+
+571
+00:39:25,220 --> 00:39:27,140
+families they don't send their kids to school
+
+572
+00:39:27,140 --> 00:39:30,260
+because they want to save their money ناس بودوش
+
+573
+00:39:30,260 --> 00:39:32,760
+بيودهم على المدارس عشان بدهم يوفروا فلوسهم طيب
+
+574
+00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,300
+okay now it's fine you can save the money but in
+
+575
+00:39:35,300 --> 00:39:37,120
+the future you will lose a lot of money
+
+576
+00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,920
+لأنه بالمستقبل هيكون ولادكم يشتغلوا بأجراء عند
+
+577
+00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,180
+الناس و بالأخر they cannot generate money، مش
+
+578
+00:39:47,180 --> 00:39:50,700
+هجيبوا الفلوس، so they think in this way and in
+
+579
+00:39:50,700 --> 00:39:54,840
+the future they become poor. Take another example,
+
+580
+00:39:54,980 --> 00:39:57,520
+sometimes الrich people they do the same، مرات
+
+581
+00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:01,150
+الناس الأغنياء بيسوي نفس الشيء.Okay يعني I know
+
+582
+00:40:01,150 --> 00:40:04,290
+some .. واحد من أصدقائي كان مع بعض، أقول له أنتوا
+
+583
+00:40:04,290 --> 00:40:07,930
+ليش؟ في ناس .. بقولله طبعا مش من فلسطين، بقولله ..
+
+584
+00:40:07,930 --> 00:40:09,650
+بقوللي واه اللي احنا متعلمين، احنا ال .. أنا
+
+585
+00:40:09,650 --> 00:40:12,010
+الوحيد اللي في القرية متعلم، بقولله ليش؟ بقوللي
+
+586
+00:40:12,010 --> 00:40:14,210
+لأنه أغلبهم merchants people and they don't
+
+587
+00:40:14,210 --> 00:40:19,520
+believe in education، يعني أغلبهم merchant، تجارو
+
+588
+00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:23,260
+بيقتنعوش في التعليم بقوله هذول بعد عشرين سنة
+
+589
+00:40:23,260 --> 00:40:25,740
+تلاتين سنة شوفوا اتفرجوا في حالهم لإنه حيسير فيه
+
+590
+00:40:25,740 --> 00:40:28,320
+تغيير في الدنيا هذا كان قبل ال 15 سنة عشرين سنة
+
+591
+00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:32,960
+فتصوروا إيش اللي بيسير إن هذول ال merchant و
+
+592
+00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:36,560
+التجارة بتحتاج ل international relationship بتحتاج
+
+593
+00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,960
+ل .. اليوم صارت ال complicated life ف if these
+
+594
+00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,460
+people cannot fit with the new models so they
+
+595
+00:40:43,460 --> 00:40:46,800
+cannot face the lifeبيقدروش يواجهوا مطالبات الحياة
+
+596
+00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:54,540
+كتير شركات انتهت وخلصت because they cannot live ..
+
+597
+00:40:54,540 --> 00:40:58,920
+they cannot meet the challenges of this life
+
+598
+00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:04,000
+defined contribution plans pension funds هدول أو
+
+599
+00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,940
+صناديخ التقاعد investment
+
+600
+00:41:07,940 --> 00:41:10,280
+policy is essentially the same as for tax
+
+601
+00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,100
+qualified individual retirement accountيعني هدول
+
+602
+00:41:13,100 --> 00:41:16,240
+تقريبا .. او كمان هدول ال pension funds الموفاة من
+
+603
+00:41:16,240 --> 00:41:19,560
+الدرائب يعني زي مثلا احنا بنستثمر أموال الأيتام
+
+604
+00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:26,340
+مثلا نستثمر أموال ال .. بعض المساكين مثلا هدول
+
+605
+00:41:26,340 --> 00:41:30,400
+بيجيهم مثلا تبرعات و كذا و إلى أخره تمام؟ هدول
+
+606
+00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:32,360
+they .. they should know how to spend this money
+
+607
+00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:36,480
+صحيح هي قليلة صحيح هي محتاجينها لكن at the end we
+
+608
+00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:40,120
+should look carefully how to spend this money
+
+609
+00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:41,740
+تمام؟
+
+610
+00:41:43,130 --> 00:41:47,150
+لازم احنا يعني مثلا من خبرتنا البسيطة طبعا هذه مش
+
+611
+00:41:47,150 --> 00:41:50,930
+موجودة .. اظن ان كانت في دولة في أفريقيا وكانوا
+
+612
+00:41:50,930 --> 00:41:54,290
+أصدقاءنا يحكونا بتعطيهم مثلا مية دولار واحدة من
+
+613
+00:41:54,290 --> 00:41:58,730
+الفتيات بيعطوها مية دولار فقيرة مسكينة يعني فباشرة
+
+614
+00:41:58,730 --> 00:42:05,800
+راحت اشترت ملابس فيهم ملابس يعنييعني خلينا نحكي
+
+615
+00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,820
+الأغنياء اللي بيشتروها طب اوكي اشتري الملابس اللي
+
+616
+00:42:08,820 --> 00:42:11,980
+بتناسبك لكن not in one hundred dollar some people
+
+617
+00:42:11,980 --> 00:42:14,460
+I think some people in .. in here they can't do
+
+618
+00:42:14,460 --> 00:42:18,520
+this بعض الناس هل ممكن يعملوا الكلام هذا انه انا
+
+619
+00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,980
+ممكن اعطي ال .. ال hundred dollar اروح ينفقها على
+
+620
+00:42:20,980 --> 00:42:24,200
+شغلات مابلزموش لأ اول اشي فيه شغلات أساسية بعدين
+
+621
+00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:26,140
+بنحكي في شغلات أخرى
+
+622
+00:42:33,390 --> 00:42:36,130
+investment in long run advice for mutual funds
+
+623
+00:42:36,130 --> 00:42:41,930
+industry الاستثمار في المادة البعيد يفضل استثمار
+
+624
+00:42:41,930 --> 00:42:45,830
+في مجالات الصناعة لأنه زي ما حكينا الصناعة هي
+
+625
+00:42:45,830 --> 00:42:50,290
+بتعمل ال .. ال .. الورث الحقيقي زي ما حكينا في
+
+626
+00:42:50,290 --> 00:42:53,590
+chapter one don't try to out guess the market by
+
+627
+00:42:53,590 --> 00:42:57,490
+moving your money in and out يعني في ال long term
+
+628
+00:42:57,490 --> 00:43:02,240
+تو زي ما حكينافي ال long term بنفعش أنه ندخل و
+
+629
+00:43:02,240 --> 00:43:06,340
+نطلع في الاستثمارات يعني مثلا أنا قررت أنه كل شهر
+
+630
+00:43:06,340 --> 00:43:10,580
+أحط من مصروفي خمسين شاكل الخمسين شاكل هدول باشتري
+
+631
+00:43:10,580 --> 00:43:15,320
+فيهم تلات أسهم أشتري فيهم في شركة بالتر okay بعد
+
+632
+00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:19,200
+ست شهور بنفعش أنسحب أروح أحول من بالتر لشركة أخر
+
+633
+00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:23,760
+لأنه ممكن أخسر لكن just fix with this لأنه
+
+634
+00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:28,320
+الاحتمالات أنه أنت تنجح أكترحتى لو كان السعر ممكن
+
+635
+00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:31,560
+ينزل لأنك انت invest in the long term يعني أعطيكوا
+
+636
+00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:36,100
+مثال واضح أسعار الدهب قبل تلت شهور قداش كانت؟ كانت
+
+637
+00:43:36,100 --> 00:43:38,920
+ألف و ست ألف و ستمية و اشي و ألف و سبعمية قبل
+
+638
+00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:43,360
+السنة كانت ألف و تمامية الآن أسعار الدهب بالألف و
+
+639
+00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:46,640
+أربعمية ممكن إذا أنتوا عاملين long term investment
+
+640
+00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:48,660
+don't withdraw your money from the market
+
+641
+00:43:48,660 --> 00:43:52,900
+ماتسحبوش، ماتبيعوش خلاص، ضلك ثابت لأن definitely
+
+642
+00:43:52,900 --> 00:43:57,590
+أن الدهب هيطلعلأنه هيك طبيعي فالإنسان اللي بيروح
+
+643
+00:43:57,590 --> 00:44:02,930
+بيسحب و بيخاف هيخسر لكن يضلك .. يضلك ماشي، still
+
+644
+00:44:02,930 --> 00:44:05,690
+.. still the .. the gold is a good area to
+
+645
+00:44:05,690 --> 00:44:09,430
+investment بضل الدهب اليوم كمان هو area كويسة بال
+
+646
+00:44:09,430 --> 00:44:13,490
+investment ف don't go in and out خاصة بال long
+
+647
+00:44:13,490 --> 00:44:17,110
+term investment بال short term you can do this بس
+
+648
+00:44:17,110 --> 00:44:19,470
+مين اللي بيقدر يعمل ال short term investment؟ the
+
+649
+00:44:19,470 --> 00:44:23,510
+qualified investorsيعني الناس المستثمرين القويين
+
+650
+00:44:23,510 --> 00:44:26,250
+بيقدروا يبيعوا و يشتريوا في نفس اللحظة أه يبيعوا و
+
+651
+00:44:26,250 --> 00:44:29,630
+يشتريوا في الشرطة بس بال long term لأ ال people
+
+652
+00:44:29,630 --> 00:44:34,050
+اللي اللي بدهم security في المستقبل بدهم residency
+
+653
+00:44:34,050 --> 00:44:37,450
+بدهم education بدهم كذا فممكن يستثمروا فيه لفترات
+
+654
+00:44:37,450 --> 00:44:45,890
+بعيدة diversity
+
+655
+00:44:45,890 --> 00:44:48,650
+to reduce risk حاولوا أن نوع في الاستثمار تبعنا
+
+656
+00:44:49,650 --> 00:44:53,010
+يعني احنا استثمرنا في .. في غزة، نستثمر في الضفر
+
+657
+00:44:53,010 --> 00:44:55,810
+الغربية، نستثمر في مصر، نستثمر في .. في المناطق
+
+658
+00:44:55,810 --> 00:45:00,190
+هذه بحيث انه نعمل diversity استثمرنا مثلا في .. في
+
+659
+00:45:00,190 --> 00:45:03,070
+السيارات، نستثمر في الأغزية، نستثمر في الصناعات،
+
+660
+00:45:03,070 --> 00:45:08,910
+نحاول برضه نعمل diversity put .. put money in
+
+661
+00:45:08,910 --> 00:45:11,910
+stocks, bonds and money market mutual funds، حطوا
+
+662
+00:45:11,910 --> 00:45:15,490
+مصاريكوا في شغلات كتير يعني زي اما احنا مانحطش في
+
+663
+00:45:15,490 --> 00:45:21,460
+.. في سلة واحدة لأنه ممكن تصير فيه خطريعني مثلا
+
+664
+00:45:21,460 --> 00:45:24,940
+تاجر بس بركز في العملة يعني أو تاجر بركز بس في
+
+665
+00:45:24,940 --> 00:45:28,120
+العقارات ننصحوش نقوله okay جرب اشتغل في الملابس
+
+666
+00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:32,340
+جرب اشتغل في كذا نوع شوف ايش .. ممكن يجيلك تاني
+
+667
+00:45:32,340 --> 00:45:36,760
+يتعود okay
+
+668
+00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:42,920
+avoid keeping 401k money in a company's low risk
+
+669
+00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:47,120
+default investment يعني حاولوا طبعا هذه 401
+
+670
+00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:52,600
+بالمعادلة يعني حاولوا ماتحطوشفلوس كتير في شركة
+
+671
+00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:57,380
+واحدة حاولوا يعني تتنوعوا في .. لأنه ممكن .. طبعا
+
+672
+00:45:57,380 --> 00:46:01,340
+احنا بنحكي probability احتمالات الاحتمالات تبعتنا
+
+673
+00:46:01,340 --> 00:46:06,300
+انه لو احنا حاطينا في just one company ممكن ..
+
+674
+00:46:06,300 --> 00:46:09,000
+ومانخليش ال big portion يكون في particular company
+
+675
+00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:11,740
+يعني انا أعطيكم مثال، طبعا كنا نحكي على شركات
+
+676
+00:46:11,740 --> 00:46:17,460
+تقنية في شركة اسمها Cisco شركة Cisco هذه من أكبر
+
+677
+00:46:17,460 --> 00:46:21,220
+شركة انتاج ال hardware في العالممر السعر طبعا طالع
+
+678
+00:46:21,220 --> 00:46:29,560
+من 17-18 وصل ل 67 فجأة فجأة من 67 نزل ل 15 طبعا
+
+679
+00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:35,160
+اتصوروا .. اتصوروا واحد حاطط كل فلوسه عنه خلاص فيه
+
+680
+00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:40,000
+بيكون فيه معلومات صارت في السوق تسربت وكذا
+
+681
+00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:43,100
+وبالتالي صار فيها هيك طبعا؟ وبالتالي اللي عمل
+
+682
+00:46:43,100 --> 00:46:46,040
+investment في هذه الشركات هيكون وضعه .. بلاش احنا
+
+683
+00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:51,120
+بالتل في غزهان وصلت في يوم الأيام 16بدأت تتراجع
+
+684
+00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:55,900
+لوصلت خمسة تصوروا يعني واحد ثروة كل حطة تشاري فيها
+
+685
+00:46:55,900 --> 00:47:00,640
+في بالتل عشرة ولا اتناشر يعني شاريله مثلا مبلغ
+
+686
+00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:04,480
+معين من ستة عشر لخمسة لخمسة يعني تقريبا تلاتمية في
+
+687
+00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:08,960
+المية من ثروته راحت خسارة يعني اللي حاطة الف دولار
+
+688
+00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,840
+وصله لتلاتمية او لمائتين دولار طب تصوروا اللي حاطة
+
+689
+00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:15,240
+مائة الف دولار كده وصله تلاتين الف دولار فبنحجزله
+
+690
+00:47:15,240 --> 00:47:19,860
+خرفة في .. في الشفة يعني فبنيجي بقوله لأ دوق ..
+
+691
+00:47:22,590 --> 00:47:30,370
+لازم التنويع يصير و التنويع مش تنويع بأي إشي لازم
+
+692
+00:47:30,370 --> 00:47:34,330
+يكون تنويع في .. يكون في equities يكون ال
+
+693
+00:47:34,330 --> 00:47:37,390
+correlation negative إيش ال correlation negative؟
+
+694
+00:47:37,390 --> 00:47:41,010
+لو بالة طلعت نزلت في واحدة تانية كبيرة هتطلع فهو
+
+695
+00:47:41,010 --> 00:47:46,850
+خسرته هن هتعوض في ربحه هن okay this is the ..by
+
+696
+00:47:46,850 --> 00:47:49,950
+worry of investing a large percentage of your
+
+697
+00:47:49,950 --> 00:47:54,670
+company stocks Investment horizon determines which
+
+698
+00:47:54,670 --> 00:47:59,730
+risk-free rates to choose الاستثمار الطويل كان
+
+699
+00:47:59,730 --> 00:48:03,170
+بحدد كمان المخاطر اللي ممكن نتحملها make simple
+
+700
+00:48:03,170 --> 00:48:06,530
+investment choices such as target date retirement
+
+701
+00:48:06,530 --> 00:48:11,110
+funds حاولوا تسهلوا عملية الاستثمار تبعتكم مثلا
+
+702
+00:48:11,110 --> 00:48:15,630
+انتوا اليومبتكونوا اتقرروا يعني كل واحد بده يحط في
+
+703
+00:48:15,630 --> 00:48:20,650
+رأسه هدف بالاستثمار حسب كل واحد ايش ال .. ايش اللي
+
+704
+00:48:20,650 --> 00:48:24,750
+.. و صدقوني كل واحد بيحط هدف بيصله بإذن الله يعني
+
+705
+00:48:24,750 --> 00:48:28,930
+لكن المشكلة ان ال people اللي عايشين بدون هدف ليش؟
+
+706
+00:48:28,930 --> 00:48:33,030
+لأن كل ما تحط هدف بدك تسعى لتحقيقه لكن لو مافعلكي
+
+707
+00:48:33,030 --> 00:48:36,550
+اش هدف مش هتسعى لتحقيقه just by chance ممكن هتيجي
+
+708
+00:48:36,550 --> 00:48:42,040
+الحياة معاك هيك اه فش اش صدفة طبعاأي بالظبط و
+
+709
+00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,580
+بالتالي ايش ال retirement plan نيجي احنا و نقول
+
+710
+00:48:44,580 --> 00:48:49,800
+والله انا .. انا يعني مثلا انا كتير اشوف أنفلة من
+
+711
+00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,100
+طلاب و طالب هتيجي يقول احنا لجيت في السنة الرابعة
+
+712
+00:48:52,100 --> 00:48:56,620
+انا about to finish انا خطتي مثلا بعد مثلا بدك
+
+713
+00:48:56,620 --> 00:49:01,120
+تعمل مجلس سيارة بديك مصاري طبعا مثلا فلازم تخبر
+
+714
+00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:06,760
+أبوكي بالكلام هذا عشان هو يعمل مثلا خليني افهمك
+
+715
+00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:10,960
+كدهلازم تخبره ليش عشان هو كمان to put his in his
+
+716
+00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:15,680
+account يعمل حسابه طيب دي نفترض أنه أنت بدك الكلام
+
+717
+00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:19,900
+هذا أنه أنا بدي أسوي الكلام هذا okay أنا بدي أدفع
+
+718
+00:49:19,900 --> 00:49:24,260
+بديك تفكر بطريقة طب أنا بعد خمس سنين بدي أشتري
+
+719
+00:49:24,260 --> 00:49:28,160
+سيارة بس أنا هيك بفكر how .. how we can do this طب
+
+720
+00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:31,920
+إذا كنتوا عائلة من زوج و زوجة و أولاد طيب هم بديوا
+
+721
+00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:36,780
+نفكروا ببيت لازم يحطوا الخطة تبعتهمالخطة هذه بده
+
+722
+00:49:36,780 --> 00:49:40,380
+تكون مثلا انا بعد عشر سنين بيكفي ندفع أجار مثلا،
+
+723
+00:49:40,380 --> 00:49:44,480
+بدنا يكون بيت، في ناس مربعات بيكونوش يفكروا wisely
+
+724
+00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:48,160
+بيكون هو بيدفع أجار بيت يعني متين دولار و ممكن هو
+
+725
+00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,040
+يروح يجيب شقة ب تلاتمية و خمسين دولار يدفع أقصاد
+
+726
+00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:55,360
+فيها مثلا، بدنا نفكر في هالطريقة، اذا the simplest
+
+727
+00:49:55,360 --> 00:50:00,430
+way is to put a targetو في ناس كتير يعني انا
+
+728
+00:50:00,430 --> 00:50:02,770
+بعرفهم انه بيحطوا target كل أربع أو خمس سنين
+
+729
+00:50:02,770 --> 00:50:05,550
+بيحطوله long term targets يعني مثلا هالخمس سنين
+
+730
+00:50:05,550 --> 00:50:09,470
+فيه سيارة مثلا، الخمس سنين بعديها في بيت، الخمس
+
+731
+00:50:09,470 --> 00:50:13,030
+سنين أو بيت من المنطقة أخرى، الخمس سنين بعديهم
+
+732
+00:50:13,030 --> 00:50:16,550
+مثلا كذا، في ناس بيشتغلوا مثلا بال .. بال ..
+
+733
+00:50:16,550 --> 00:50:23,200
+بالسنة okay؟ بالسنة إيه إيش ممكن يسوي هو؟طيب
+
+734
+00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:27,260
+inflation risk على long term investors في احنا في
+
+735
+00:50:27,260 --> 00:50:30,300
+مشكلة في ال investment فيصير inflation كيف احنا
+
+736
+00:50:30,300 --> 00:50:35,200
+نختار instruments to fight against inflation؟ يعني
+
+737
+00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:40,900
+نختار instruments أدوات مالية ضد ال inflation TIBS
+
+738
+00:50:40,900 --> 00:50:46,000
+are helpful trades against inflation يعني هي trade
+
+739
+00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:49,580
+against inflationare helpful but not really risk
+
+740
+00:50:49,580 --> 00:50:52,760
+free يعني احنا في عندنا بعض الأدوات الاستثمارية
+
+741
+00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:57,500
+كويسة بتشتغل مع الinflation يعني مثلا الدهب كل ما
+
+742
+00:50:57,500 --> 00:51:01,240
+بيزيد الinflation سعر الدهب بيرتفع ال oil النفط كل
+
+743
+00:51:01,240 --> 00:51:05,420
+ما بيزيد الinflation ال oil بيزيد فبندور على ال
+
+744
+00:51:05,420 --> 00:51:08,500
+areas هذه اللي بتساعدنا to fight again market
+
+745
+00:51:08,500 --> 00:51:12,800
+value can fluctuate بس بال short term بال short
+
+746
+00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:14,340
+term انه في عند me fluctuation
+
+747
+00:51:16,820 --> 00:51:19,720
+get afraid ما تخافوش كتير خاصة بال long term
+
+748
+00:51:19,720 --> 00:51:24,560
+investment في الاستثمارات طويلة الأجر ال short
+
+749
+00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:27,920
+term fluctuation is not influence on the long term
+
+750
+00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:32,380
+impact ما بتأثرش كتير على ال long term كيف
+
+751
+00:51:32,380 --> 00:51:39,180
+fluctuate تذبذب يعني كل يوم الأسعار بتذبذب صح لكن
+
+752
+00:51:39,180 --> 00:51:44,340
+بالأخير أنه في الأسعار بتطلعreinvestment rate risk
+
+753
+00:51:44,340 --> 00:51:50,320
+يعني إعادة الاستثمار يعني الأرباح اللي إحنا بنحصل
+
+754
+00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:55,400
+عليها يا إما إحنا بنروح نصرفها يا إما بنروح نعملها
+
+755
+00:51:55,400 --> 00:52:03,740
+reinvestment ف we should think on this هك
+
+756
+00:52:03,740 --> 00:52:04,400
+وكون خلصنا
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gqq_Fyc5bTk_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gqq_Fyc5bTk_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ca7273e4ee84fb7b71a346fbd349f75073d79787
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gqq_Fyc5bTk_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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insurance أنه نعمل زي ما حكت تأمين له تأمين على الحياة لأنه في المستقبل we don't know", "tokens": [64, 1952, 4238, 293, 7214, 2423, 7214, 14739, 3224, 8717, 25957, 1211, 30767, 1829, 19446, 11331, 4117, 2655, 6055, 10721, 2304, 9957, 46740, 6055, 10721, 2304, 9957, 15844, 21542, 25528, 3660, 5296, 33456, 3224, 8978, 9673, 14851, 4587, 36150, 321, 500, 380, 458], "avg_logprob": -0.19140624661337247, "compression_ratio": 1.3, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1548.67, "end": 1548.91, "word": "a", "probability": 0.430908203125}, {"start": 1548.91, "end": 1549.15, "word": " human", "probability": 0.93994140625}, {"start": 1549.15, "end": 1549.51, "word": " capital", "probability": 0.93994140625}, {"start": 1549.51, "end": 1549.81, "word": " and", "probability": 0.95458984375}, {"start": 1549.81, "end": 1550.35, "word": " insurance", "probability": 0.91259765625}, {"start": 1550.35, "end": 1550.81, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.7001953125}, {"start": 1550.81, "end": 1551.21, 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think in this way and in the future they become poor. 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3102.02, "text": "get afraid ما تخافوش كتير خاصة بال long term investment في الاستثمارات طويلة الأجر ال short term fluctuation is not influence on the long term impact ما بتأثرش كتير على ال long term كيف fluctuate تذبذب يعني كل يوم الأسعار بتذبذب صح لكن بالأخير أنه في الأسعار بتطلع", "tokens": [847, 4638, 19446, 6055, 9778, 31845, 2407, 8592, 9122, 2655, 13546, 16490, 33546, 3660, 20666, 938, 1433, 6078, 8978, 42963, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 9307, 23032, 2407, 26895, 3660, 16247, 7435, 2288, 2423, 2099, 1433, 23448, 16073, 307, 406, 6503, 322, 264, 938, 1433, 2712, 19446, 39894, 10721, 49115, 8592, 9122, 2655, 13546, 15844, 2423, 938, 1433, 9122, 33911, 23448, 10107, 6055, 8848, 3555, 8848, 3555, 37495, 22653, 28242, 7251, 20498, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 39894, 8848, 3555, 8848, 3555, 20328, 5016, 44381, 20666, 10721, 9778, 13546, 14739, 3224, 8978, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 39894, 9566, 1211, 3615], "avg_logprob": -0.19523358495548518, "compression_ratio": 1.6842105263157894, 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@@ -0,0 +1,3024 @@
+1
+00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:25,760
+Okay بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اليوم هنكمل في ال
+
+2
+00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:31,020
+investments في ال investment policy المرة
+
+3
+00:00:31,020 --> 00:00:33,340
+الأولى اللي حكينا أنه احنا لازم نتعرف على ال
+
+4
+00:00:33,340 --> 00:00:36,360
+investment objective و نعمل description لل
+
+5
+00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:42,760
+investors و we design the investment policy اليوم
+
+6
+00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:49,480
+طبعا كمان لازم هدول الخمس five process أو five
+
+7
+00:00:49,480 --> 00:00:55,340
+stepsto do asset allocation asset allocation انه
+
+8
+00:00:55,340 --> 00:00:58,960
+احنا كيف بدنا نوزع الاستثمارات تبعتنا او الموارد
+
+9
+00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:04,980
+تبعتنا the first one specify asset classes طب احنا
+
+10
+00:01:04,980 --> 00:01:08,840
+عرفنا ايش ال asset classes يعني الأدوات
+
+11
+00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:13,600
+الاستثمارية يعني في عندنا احنا stocks في عندنا
+
+12
+00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:19,300
+bondsفي عندنا treasury bills مثلا ال money markets
+
+13
+00:01:19,300 --> 00:01:21,580
+اجمالا ال money markets securities ال money
+
+14
+00:01:21,580 --> 00:01:27,030
+marketsOkay؟ ال stocks في عندها أنواع من ال stocks
+
+15
+00:01:27,030 --> 00:01:30,210
+و ال bonds في عندها أنواع من ال bonds ففي المرحلة
+
+16
+00:01:30,210 --> 00:01:32,610
+الأولى احنا specify asset classes ايش هي ال asset
+
+17
+00:01:32,610 --> 00:01:37,290
+classes ال available عندنا في ال .. في البلد يعني
+
+18
+00:01:37,290 --> 00:01:39,750
+مثلا في السؤال الأول أنا سألتكم إياه في السؤال
+
+19
+00:01:39,750 --> 00:01:45,110
+assignment حكينا لكم evaluate the investment
+
+20
+00:01:45,110 --> 00:01:49,040
+environment in Palestinian authorityفانا الهدف ان
+
+21
+00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,540
+اعرف هل انتوا بتقدروا تعرفوا ال asset classes اللي
+
+22
+00:01:51,540 --> 00:01:53,740
+متوفرة available in the Palestinian Authority ولا
+
+23
+00:01:53,740 --> 00:01:59,000
+لأ مابدناش تحكولنا عن البيئة بتاعة فلسطين و البحر
+
+24
+00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,400
+هذا بقى بالزمنة بالزمني the availability of
+
+25
+00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,020
+investments يعني لما واحد بده يعمل investment بده
+
+26
+00:02:04,020 --> 00:02:08,180
+أول شي يحط ال asset classes و بعدين and determine
+
+27
+00:02:08,180 --> 00:02:10,780
+the different types of stocks and if we have bonds
+
+28
+00:02:10,780 --> 00:02:14,180
+if we have money market instruments then after
+
+29
+00:02:14,180 --> 00:02:18,360
+that wespecify capital market expectations capital
+
+30
+00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,840
+market expectations evaluate each one بنعمل
+
+31
+00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,000
+evaluation لل stocks مثلا عندنا في ال income
+
+32
+00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:30,940
+stocks أمثلة في عندنا ال growth stocks في عندنا
+
+33
+00:02:30,940 --> 00:02:38,680
+مثلا اللي هو mixed growth and income بنعمل
+
+34
+00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:43,740
+evaluation إيش evaluation؟ بنشوف the future of the
+
+35
+00:02:43,740 --> 00:02:44,100
+stocks
+
+36
+00:02:53,990 --> 00:02:58,510
+بالقارن بين مجموعات مختلفة ثم نقرر أي مجموعة
+
+37
+00:02:58,510 --> 00:03:04,110
+مناسبة للميكروفيا لنا اذا يعني زي ما حكينا اول
+
+38
+00:03:04,110 --> 00:03:06,930
+خطوة specify asset classes نشوف ال asset classes
+
+39
+00:03:06,930 --> 00:03:12,030
+بعدين بنعمل capital market expectations نقرر
+
+40
+00:03:12,030 --> 00:03:14,130
+المستقبل ماهي الممكنة
+
+41
+00:03:16,620 --> 00:03:19,900
+expectations or the possible profits or the which
+
+42
+00:03:19,900 --> 00:03:25,160
+areas is more developed than the other areas يعني
+
+43
+00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:28,040
+احنا بنشوف المجالات الاستثمار متوفرة عندنا بنشوف
+
+44
+00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:32,060
+ايش المستقبل لأي مجال من مجالات الاستثمارات and
+
+45
+00:03:32,060 --> 00:03:37,320
+then we invest in .. in this يعني مثلا في
+
+46
+00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,390
+الاستثمارات اليوم في مجالات الطاقةكتير مهمة يعني
+
+47
+00:03:40,390 --> 00:03:43,550
+اليوم ال investments الاستثمارات في مجال ال .. ال
+
+48
+00:03:43,550 --> 00:03:48,070
+water مجالات الميه برضه كتير مهم الاستثمار فيها
+
+49
+00:03:48,070 --> 00:03:52,850
+اليوم مثلا بالمجالات ال .. ال environments ال
+
+50
+00:03:52,850 --> 00:03:55,970
+environment protections و الشغلات هذه برضه فيه صار
+
+51
+00:03:55,970 --> 00:03:58,810
+ال .. الطاقة البديلة صار في استثمارات قوية فيها
+
+52
+00:03:58,810 --> 00:04:05,930
+okay؟ في مثلا على international environments مثلا
+
+53
+00:04:05,930 --> 00:04:10,000
+ال Africaاستثمارات في ال .. في البرازيل في
+
+54
+00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,720
+Bangladesh يعني الصبح أنا كنت بخرق في .. في
+
+55
+00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,360
+Bangladesh بيزيدوا .. بيزيدوا الأجور ل .. للعاملين
+
+56
+00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:21,300
+في .. في مصانع الملابس عارفين أكم واحد بيشتغل في
+
+57
+00:04:21,300 --> 00:04:24,460
+ال .. في Bangladesh في .. في مصانع الملابس؟ أكم
+
+58
+00:04:24,460 --> 00:04:28,160
+بني آدم، أكم عامل؟ عشر، عشرين، متين، اتين ألف،
+
+59
+00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:36,250
+تلتمية ألف؟ كم؟ آه، تلتة مليون تقريبا آه، كيف؟بال
+
+60
+00:04:36,250 --> 00:04:39,150
+textiles و الشغلات هذه اه و ال fabric industries
+
+61
+00:04:39,150 --> 00:04:42,090
+فبدهم يقرروا او يقرروا يقرروا او يقرروا يقرروا
+
+62
+00:04:42,090 --> 00:04:43,050
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+63
+00:04:43,050 --> 00:04:43,990
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+64
+00:04:43,990 --> 00:04:45,170
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+65
+00:04:45,170 --> 00:04:47,410
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا
+
+66
+00:04:47,410 --> 00:04:55,910
+يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا يقرروا ي
+
+67
+00:04:56,260 --> 00:04:59,120
+في مناطق الشرق أسيا كلهم بستثمروا كتير في موضوع
+
+68
+00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,920
+الملابس و ال textile و ال fabric industries فهذه
+
+69
+00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:09,080
+areas is underdeveloped يعني تحت ال .. تحت ال .. و
+
+70
+00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:12,900
+خاصة لأنه بتحتاج إلى في مناطق الشرق أسيا بتحتاج
+
+71
+00:05:12,900 --> 00:05:16,780
+إلى أيدي عاملة كتيريعني لما هم بدهم يصنعوا ملابس
+
+72
+00:05:16,780 --> 00:05:20,640
+بحتاج كتير أي داعي عاملة و في هذه المناطق، في
+
+73
+00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,560
+الهند، في .. في .. في الصين، في بنجالدش، في
+
+74
+00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,800
+باكستان، هدول is a good areas for investment in
+
+75
+00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,340
+textiles or textile industries لو احنا رجعنا
+
+76
+00:05:29,340 --> 00:05:33,040
+للخمسينات والستينات أو الأربعينات نجي في ال UK و
+
+77
+00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,980
+في European countries اللي كان textile industries
+
+78
+00:05:36,650 --> 00:05:40,490
+is one of the major influence area in the
+
+79
+00:05:40,490 --> 00:05:43,530
+investments يعني لو رجعنا لخمسين السبتنات كان ال
+
+80
+00:05:43,530 --> 00:05:46,490
+textile و هاي استثماراتها في أوروبا و في ال .. في
+
+81
+00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:50,130
+ال UK في بريطانيا كانت .. هي ال promising areas
+
+82
+00:05:50,130 --> 00:05:55,690
+فال .. ال areas اللي في ال .. اللي اليوم في الشرق
+
+83
+00:05:55,690 --> 00:06:00,830
+أسيا كانت كتير .. كتير promising areas نعطيكوا في
+
+84
+00:06:00,830 --> 00:06:03,870
+مجالات استثمار في العالم and we are talking about
+
+85
+00:06:03,870 --> 00:06:07,430
+the expected .. expected areas for investmentfor
+
+86
+00:06:07,430 --> 00:06:11,270
+instance in .. in .. in Africa يعني لو أنتوا
+
+87
+00:06:11,270 --> 00:06:16,090
+روحتوا نيجيريا مثلا in .. in the .. in the
+
+88
+00:06:16,090 --> 00:06:18,810
+industry .. the movies industries صناعة السينما ..
+
+89
+00:06:18,810 --> 00:06:21,750
+cinema industries طبعا في عندنا three .. three
+
+90
+00:06:21,750 --> 00:06:26,370
+main areas in the world invested in .. in cinemas
+
+91
+00:06:26,370 --> 00:06:29,770
+and movies industries يعني تلت أماكن في العالم
+
+92
+00:06:29,770 --> 00:06:34,170
+تنتج السينما في العالم أكبر أماكن لأنك هوليود و
+
+93
+00:06:34,170 --> 00:06:39,770
+بوليود و نيليودطبعا Hollywood احنا نعرفين is in
+
+94
+00:06:39,770 --> 00:06:44,390
+the United States وعنا Duluth in India وفينا Nilud
+
+95
+00:06:44,390 --> 00:06:50,650
+في نيجيريا، اه فهذه areas for .. يعني اليوم اخر ال
+
+96
+00:06:50,650 --> 00:06:55,430
+movies او الأفلام اللي تم تصنيعة هي أغلبها كانت في
+
+97
+00:06:55,430 --> 00:07:01,410
+نيجيرياامكانيات موجودة و رخص ID عاملة و في
+
+98
+00:07:01,410 --> 00:07:05,710
+environment و في بيئة و حتى يعني في بعض مناطق كتير
+
+99
+00:07:05,710 --> 00:07:09,510
+ساحرة في .. في .. في .. في أفريقيا و بتاع دي this
+
+100
+00:07:09,510 --> 00:07:13,310
+is a promising area so .. so when we are looking
+
+101
+00:07:13,310 --> 00:07:16,750
+at the .. the areas of .. to invest we have
+
+102
+00:07:16,750 --> 00:07:20,490
+sometimes we look at the local areas and we may
+
+103
+00:07:20,490 --> 00:07:23,130
+look at the international areasلذلك من المهم أن
+
+104
+00:07:23,130 --> 00:07:28,010
+نستخدم اتفاقات السوق حيث نستخدم مالنا في المجتمع
+
+105
+00:07:28,010 --> 00:07:32,790
+أو في المنطقة أو في المجتمع الدولي ثالثًا، تخلص من
+
+106
+00:07:32,790 --> 00:07:36,550
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+107
+00:07:36,550 --> 00:07:38,150
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+108
+00:07:38,150 --> 00:07:39,710
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+109
+00:07:39,710 --> 00:07:40,590
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+110
+00:07:40,590 --> 00:07:46,530
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من مجموعة إيجابية تخلص من
+
+111
+00:07:46,530 --> 00:07:53,560
+مجموعة إيجابية تخلصOkay okay we select particular
+
+112
+00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:55,500
+companies here, particular companies here,
+
+113
+00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,700
+particular companies here and we forming up a
+
+114
+00:07:58,700 --> 00:08:02,940
+portfolio ممكن احنا نكون محفظة استثمارية حسب ال
+
+115
+00:08:02,940 --> 00:08:06,140
+areas اللي فيها استثمار يعني مثلا ممكن احنا شوفنا
+
+116
+00:08:06,140 --> 00:08:10,800
+في .. هعطيكم مثلا ال real estates ال promising
+
+117
+00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:12,800
+area تبع ال real estates في ال united states و في
+
+118
+00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,640
+ال UK و في بعض ال European countries is not
+
+119
+00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:20,020
+promising areasمش promising areas مش يعني مناطق
+
+120
+00:08:20,020 --> 00:08:23,900
+promising واعدة لكن لان شوف احنا بالعالم العربي
+
+121
+00:08:23,900 --> 00:08:28,820
+بتلاقي مثلا في ليبيا في تونس في الدول يعني ال ..
+
+122
+00:08:28,820 --> 00:08:31,880
+ال .. ال spring Arabic countries هنلاقي ان ال ..
+
+123
+00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,720
+ال .. هاي فيها promising areas حتى في فلسطين ان ال
+
+124
+00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:36,900
+promising areas في ال real .. ال real estate
+
+125
+00:08:36,900 --> 00:08:40,840
+industries يعني اللي هو العقارات فالعقارات is
+
+126
+00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:46,330
+promising area فممكن احنا نستثمر جزء من ال ..ال ..
+
+127
+00:08:46,330 --> 00:08:50,410
+ال .. يعني نحط real asset دايما ال .. ال portfolio
+
+128
+00:08:50,410 --> 00:08:54,810
+تبعتنا ممكن نحط stocks international stocks مثلا
+
+129
+00:08:54,810 --> 00:08:59,830
+في أفريقيا يعني أعطيكم مثال Vodafone أظن Vodafone
+
+130
+00:08:59,830 --> 00:09:06,370
+استثمرت في .. في جانا كان أكتر فرع بيربح إلهم في
+
+131
+00:09:06,370 --> 00:09:11,370
+العالم I think اه في جانا اتصور يعني don't
+
+132
+00:09:11,370 --> 00:09:14,510
+underestimate Africa
+
+133
+00:09:15,460 --> 00:09:20,120
+مات .. don't underestimate يعني ماتستهلوش فيها you
+
+134
+00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,040
+can become a millionaire in Africa if you just
+
+135
+00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:25,700
+invest your money it is high risk environments but
+
+136
+00:09:25,700 --> 00:09:28,560
+you can make a money in Africa
+
+137
+00:09:32,620 --> 00:09:36,160
+and .. so this is .. then you derive the efficient
+
+138
+00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,820
+portfolio based on the .. you put in this
+
+139
+00:09:38,820 --> 00:09:41,380
+portfolio different asset classes, different
+
+140
+00:09:41,380 --> 00:09:44,940
+investments, you can invest in the .. in the real
+
+141
+00:09:44,940 --> 00:09:47,400
+estate, you can invest in gold, you can invest in
+
+142
+00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:51,720
+the .. in textile industries, okay؟ يعني زي مثلا
+
+143
+00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,800
+في Bangladesh، في China، في ال .. هدول، كتير
+
+144
+00:09:54,800 --> 00:10:01,560
+promising areas، يعني مناطق أو ..مجالات كتير قوية
+
+145
+00:10:01,560 --> 00:10:06,600
+في الاستثمارات في العالم مي فرانسكو هيك استثمارات
+
+146
+00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:13,120
+as promising areas اه سوماليا اش ممكن تسفير دونها
+
+147
+00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:17,840
+ات شوفت لو يا بايا شفتنا اول .. اول محادرة .. اكبر
+
+148
+00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:22,220
+استثمارات في ال .. اه اه في ال banana اه شركة ..
+
+149
+00:10:22,220 --> 00:10:26,360
+شركة dollar اكبر شركة انتاج موز في العالم اه
+
+150
+00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:31,920
+الصومال طبعا .. اه الصومال أمه بياخد الموز و بيصد
+
+151
+00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:37,080
+.. بي .. بيصدروه ل .. ل .. لكافة أنحاء العالم طبعا
+
+152
+00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,680
+الصومال كمان، لا تنسوش أنه اليوم كمان investment
+
+153
+00:10:39,680 --> 00:10:44,380
+بال security، لا تنسوش، بال security، لأ بال
+
+154
+00:10:44,380 --> 00:10:48,220
+security .. security، الأمن، يعني اليوم ال .. ال
+
+155
+00:10:48,220 --> 00:10:50,980
+private companies الشركات الخاصة تستثمر كتير في
+
+156
+00:10:50,980 --> 00:10:54,580
+الأمن و من أهم شركات الأمن في العالم اللي هو ال ..
+
+157
+00:10:54,580 --> 00:11:00,490
+ال blackwaterو Blackwater طبعا شركة بتستثمر في ال
+
+158
+00:11:00,490 --> 00:11:05,930
+.. يعني زي اللي احنا بنسميهم مرتزقة يعني بياخدوهم
+
+159
+00:11:05,930 --> 00:11:09,890
+و .. و الجيوش في بعض الحالات .. في بعض الحالات بي
+
+160
+00:11:09,890 --> 00:11:14,430
+.. بنفذوا مهمات خاصة فهذه المهمات الخاصة مابودوش
+
+161
+00:11:14,430 --> 00:11:17,450
+الجيش تبعهم بودوا بعض الناس ال .. ال very
+
+162
+00:11:17,450 --> 00:11:20,230
+professional peoplevery very professional people
+
+163
+00:11:20,230 --> 00:11:24,650
+يعني بيكون عندهم إمكانيات كتير عالية and they
+
+164
+00:11:24,650 --> 00:11:28,150
+bought their life at risk because of moneyبحطوا
+
+165
+00:11:28,150 --> 00:11:31,510
+حياتهم تحت الخطر فيه؟ ليش؟ لأنه ممكن it costs the
+
+166
+00:11:31,510 --> 00:11:35,450
+country if they send their kids or their sons يعني
+
+167
+00:11:35,450 --> 00:11:38,070
+ممكن إنه تكلف الدول خاصة ال developed countries
+
+168
+00:11:38,070 --> 00:11:41,330
+الدول المتقدمة لما بيبعتوا ولادهم مثلا يروحوا
+
+169
+00:11:41,330 --> 00:11:44,750
+يحاربوا في some areas in Afghanistan، in Iraq، in
+
+170
+00:11:44,750 --> 00:11:47,650
+other countries sometimes when they send these
+
+171
+00:11:47,650 --> 00:11:53,230
+people or their sons and if they killed there they
+
+172
+00:11:53,230 --> 00:11:56,180
+have to pay insurance for themيعني إذا بيودوهم غد
+
+173
+00:11:56,180 --> 00:11:59,980
+و بيقتلوا غد فبيدفعوا لهم insurance تأمين ف
+
+174
+00:11:59,980 --> 00:12:02,240
+instead of paying insurance لأ في .. they are
+
+175
+00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,900
+hiring some people from the .. the .. the other
+
+176
+00:12:04,900 --> 00:12:07,460
+companies from the security companies فبروحوا هم
+
+177
+00:12:07,460 --> 00:12:13,200
+بتعاخدوا مع شركات .. شركات أمن خاصة فهم بس
+
+178
+00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,040
+بتفعولهم فلوس حتى لو قتلوا عشان ما .. ما لهمش دخل
+
+179
+00:12:16,660 --> 00:12:20,320
+يعني ممكن يدفع هم في ال insurance يعني as far as I
+
+180
+00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:24,320
+know they may pay millions of dollar to their
+
+181
+00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,820
+families يعني لو كانوا بعتوا هم أولادهم يحاربوا في
+
+182
+00:12:27,820 --> 00:12:30,940
+بعض ال .. يعني كانوا كتير في العراق يبعتوا ال ..
+
+183
+00:12:30,940 --> 00:12:35,400
+ال .. ال .. يبعتوا ال black waters هدول الناس اللي
+
+184
+00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:41,840
+بشركات الأمن و يعني ياخدوا .. ياخدوا ..ياخدوا فلوس
+
+185
+00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:46,920
+كويسة مقابل هذا الشغل لكن بتضالها أقل كلفة فيما هم
+
+186
+00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,960
+لو .. لو بعتوا ولاد البلد لأن ولاد البلد لو راحوا
+
+187
+00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:54,320
+وماتوا وقتلوا هيدفعولهم ملايين دولارات as an
+
+188
+00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:58,160
+insurance وحنحكي موضوع ال insurance كمان شبهين ف
+
+189
+00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,760
+.. so this is in past ف .. فال .. ال security
+
+190
+00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:04,440
+companies is a promising areas فممكن ناس استخمر في
+
+191
+00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:05,160
+هذه المجالات
+
+192
+00:13:08,770 --> 00:13:12,330
+Find the optimal asset mix بعد ما احنا بتشوف ال ..
+
+193
+00:13:12,330 --> 00:13:15,230
+ايش الشغلات اللي لازم نحطها بال .. بال portfolio
+
+194
+00:13:15,230 --> 00:13:18,890
+يعني انا عندى هاي ال portfolio او هادي و قررنا انه
+
+195
+00:13:18,890 --> 00:13:22,990
+احنا هنحط real assets real estate sorry estates و
+
+196
+00:13:22,990 --> 00:13:29,390
+هنحط stocks مثلا Egyptian stocks نحط مثلا Libyan
+
+197
+00:13:29,390 --> 00:13:33,690
+نستثمر في Libyan مثلا و نستثمر في ال gold و نستثمر
+
+198
+00:13:33,690 --> 00:13:34,430
+في ال textile
+
+199
+00:13:37,680 --> 00:13:41,240
+نستثمر في ال textile يعني في ال .. في الملابس و في
+
+200
+00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:46,360
+النسيج و في الأشياء هذه okay فلبس .. بدنا بعد ما
+
+201
+00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:48,960
+نقول أن هدول ال promising areas بتاعتنا هدول
+
+202
+00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:52,060
+المناطق ال promising اللي في المستحيل اللي هتكون
+
+203
+00:13:52,060 --> 00:13:56,820
+فيها تطور فبدنا نعمل ال optimal optimal asset mix
+
+204
+00:13:56,820 --> 00:14:01,920
+ال optimalit means قداش أنا أستثمر فيها يعني لو
+
+205
+00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,360
+أنا مثلا متوفر معايا مئة ألف دولار كام أستثمر هنا
+
+206
+00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:09,820
+و قداش أستثمر هنا طبعا ال optimal اللي هي بتعطيني
+
+207
+00:14:09,820 --> 00:14:16,300
+the higher return with with lower risk طبعا في
+
+208
+00:14:16,300 --> 00:14:20,860
+chapter اسمه optimalلأ هو تقريبا utility بس في
+
+209
+00:14:20,860 --> 00:14:24,100
+عندنا chapter شوية advance عليكم اعطيناه لل .. لل
+
+210
+00:14:24,100 --> 00:14:28,640
+MBA student اعطيناه لطلاب ال master بنحط ال ..
+
+211
+00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:30,960
+بنعرف إيش ال assets اللي احنا بنياها بنحطها في
+
+212
+00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,300
+equation بتطلعلي ال equation قداش أنا أستثمر في كل
+
+213
+00:14:33,300 --> 00:14:36,190
+واحدة منهميعني لو أنا مثلا معايا one hundred
+
+214
+00:14:36,190 --> 00:14:38,150
+thousand dollar how much I invest in real assets
+
+215
+00:14:38,150 --> 00:14:41,510
+or real estates, how much I invest in gold, how
+
+216
+00:14:41,510 --> 00:14:43,750
+much I invest in Libya, how much I invest in
+
+217
+00:14:43,750 --> 00:14:47,430
+Tunisia, how much I invest in the .. in the .. in
+
+218
+00:14:47,430 --> 00:14:50,270
+the energy industries, how much I invest in cinema
+
+219
+00:14:50,270 --> 00:14:54,670
+industries and so on okay فهذه المجالات اللي احنا
+
+220
+00:14:54,670 --> 00:14:58,890
+ممكن نستثمر .. نستثمر فيها و بعدين كدهش how much
+
+221
+00:14:58,890 --> 00:15:02,920
+we invest in eachيعني مانفعش انا اقول okay هاي ال
+
+222
+00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,220
+areas اللي انا هستثمر فيها and keep silent لأنه
+
+223
+00:15:06,220 --> 00:15:09,760
+تركيبة الأموال اللي انا هستثمر فيها هي بتعملي كمان
+
+224
+00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,720
+.. بتعملي maximizing to the expected rate of
+
+225
+00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:18,060
+return بتعملي maximizing تعظيم لل .. لكن لو انا
+
+226
+00:15:18,060 --> 00:15:21,420
+مثلا روحت .. ماستخدمتش ال optimal ممكن مااستفدش
+
+227
+00:15:21,420 --> 00:15:24,880
+كتير من ال .. من ال diversification
+
+228
+00:15:28,490 --> 00:15:32,190
+أكيد احنا هندفع taxes and I explained to you in
+
+229
+00:15:32,190 --> 00:15:36,330
+some instruments we may avoid taxes because some
+
+230
+00:15:36,330 --> 00:15:38,970
+instruments are tax exempted others are not tax
+
+231
+00:15:38,970 --> 00:15:44,410
+exempted so we consider taxes when we are managing
+
+232
+00:15:44,410 --> 00:15:51,770
+our portfoliosNow because this .. this course is a
+
+233
+00:15:51,770 --> 00:15:54,990
+foundation to investment يعني هذا ال .. ال course
+
+234
+00:15:54,990 --> 00:15:58,150
+اللي أنت بتاخدوه هو مقدمة .. مقدمة في الاستثمار
+
+235
+00:15:58,150 --> 00:16:01,150
+خدوا بارك و احنا بنحكي ما زلنا نحكي مقدمة استثمار
+
+236
+00:16:01,150 --> 00:16:04,290
+we are not talking in depth about investment اه
+
+237
+00:16:04,290 --> 00:16:06,670
+يعني so some people saying oh wow we still in the
+
+238
+00:16:06,670 --> 00:16:11,350
+foundation yes this is only foundation اه
+
+239
+00:16:16,010 --> 00:16:19,470
+Okay, so managing portfolio individual investors
+
+240
+00:16:19,470 --> 00:16:24,170
+هلأ ال individual investors يعني ال individual
+
+241
+00:16:24,170 --> 00:16:26,330
+investors اللي زيكوا و اللي زيين اعتبر individual
+
+242
+00:16:26,330 --> 00:16:32,070
+investors where بيستثمر؟ where they .. خليني أقول
+
+243
+00:16:32,070 --> 00:16:35,390
+why they invest خليني أنا أسألكم very simple
+
+244
+00:16:35,390 --> 00:16:40,770
+question why you invest السؤال بسيط يعني ليش احنا
+
+245
+00:16:40,770 --> 00:16:45,370
+ضروري ان احنا نستثمر مثلا و طب و ليش؟خليني أسمع
+
+246
+00:16:45,370 --> 00:16:50,070
+منكم طب و زدنا لأربعة so what يعني and you become
+
+247
+00:16:50,070 --> 00:16:54,690
+a millionaire then so what okay
+
+248
+00:16:54,690 --> 00:16:59,050
+the wealth what it means the wealth what it means
+
+249
+00:16:59,050 --> 00:17:00,770
+you have money you have millionaire you have
+
+250
+00:17:00,770 --> 00:17:03,270
+swimming pool you have everything in your life you
+
+251
+00:17:03,270 --> 00:17:10,550
+have gold everything you have so what for what
+
+252
+00:17:10,550 --> 00:17:13,370
+okay for what what's the future the future is
+
+253
+00:17:13,370 --> 00:17:17,310
+comingو اذا مستقبل مرتفع فما يمكننا فعله مع
+
+254
+00:17:17,310 --> 00:17:17,870
+المستقبل؟
+
+255
+00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:25,520
+Okay, when you are getting old, you cannot do
+
+256
+00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:29,280
+something that you've been doing before, so it's
+
+257
+00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:33,860
+fine to secure yourself in the future Yes,
+
+258
+00:17:34,020 --> 00:17:42,840
+this is one of the main reasons why we invest, not
+
+259
+00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:47,210
+because to get money or to make a profitso if you
+
+260
+00:17:47,210 --> 00:17:50,890
+have everything إذا إنا كل شيء so what it means ما
+
+261
+00:17:50,890 --> 00:17:53,250
+هو the poor people are living their life and the
+
+262
+00:17:53,250 --> 00:17:55,550
+rich people are living their own life and these
+
+263
+00:17:55,550 --> 00:17:57,770
+people are living their own life in their own ways
+
+264
+00:17:57,770 --> 00:17:59,310
+and these people are living their own life in
+
+265
+00:17:59,310 --> 00:18:04,830
+their own ways that's it احنا المشكلة عندنا أنه
+
+266
+00:18:04,830 --> 00:18:08,150
+احنا بدنا نقتل يعني امبارح كنت نقاش مع أحد
+
+267
+00:18:08,150 --> 00:18:15,130
+الأساتذة بقوله أنه أنه الفقير بيقتنع أنه فقيرand
+
+268
+00:18:15,130 --> 00:18:20,090
+enjoy in this life و ال .. و ال rich people they
+
+269
+00:18:20,090 --> 00:18:24,330
+لازم يقتنعوا أنهم أغنياء و يقتنعوا ب .. بغنائهم
+
+270
+00:18:24,330 --> 00:18:28,850
+لكن احنا مرات the opposite انه الغني مش مقنع أنه
+
+271
+00:18:28,850 --> 00:18:32,770
+غني و الفقير مش مقنع أنه فقير مثال بسيط يعني
+
+272
+00:18:32,770 --> 00:18:36,150
+بتلاقي مثلا فقير ماعندهش يجيب .. يجيب مثلا كيلو
+
+273
+00:18:36,150 --> 00:18:40,890
+عدس لأولاده مع mobile as free I saw some people
+
+274
+00:18:40,890 --> 00:18:47,820
+like this مظبوط ولا لأ؟إذا كيف .. كيف تشتري ..
+
+275
+00:18:47,820 --> 00:18:51,580
+تقوم بتخزين المال لتشتري هاتف موبايل S3 وفي نفس
+
+276
+00:18:51,580 --> 00:18:54,820
+الوقت ليس لديك المال لتقضيه على الطعام؟ إذا كيف؟
+
+277
+00:18:54,820 --> 00:19:01,780
+هل هو رجل غامض؟ لا، لكن في الحقيقة هو غامض. مثل
+
+278
+00:19:01,780 --> 00:19:06,860
+آخر .. مثل آخر .. أم ترسل طفلها .. حسنًا، أسأل
+
+279
+00:19:06,860 --> 00:19:11,610
+أبيك أن تشتري شيء من .. من .. من السوقOh dad I
+
+280
+00:19:11,610 --> 00:19:15,150
+don't have money and after two three seconds he
+
+281
+00:19:15,150 --> 00:19:20,910
+sent his kids to buy smoking or cigarettes الأم
+
+282
+00:19:20,910 --> 00:19:24,290
+تبعت الولد بتقوله روح قوله أبوك بدنا كيلو ملح
+
+283
+00:19:24,290 --> 00:19:29,930
+الأبو يقول روح ويقول أمك ماعناش مصاري في نفس الوقت
+
+284
+00:19:29,930 --> 00:19:34,330
+بعد تلت دقايق بيبعت ابنه يشيله دخانso this is the
+
+285
+00:19:34,330 --> 00:19:38,210
+problem أعطيكم مثال تاري for the .. for the .. for
+
+286
+00:19:38,210 --> 00:19:42,230
+the rich people الأغنية بتلاقي لو جاله على الشارع
+
+287
+00:19:42,230 --> 00:19:46,250
+في .. في إيش charity في إيش free اه روح يا ولد روح
+
+288
+00:19:46,250 --> 00:19:51,630
+جيه الميه ببلاش أو في ناس ب .. في .. في ناس قاعدين
+
+289
+00:19:51,630 --> 00:19:55,130
+ببيعوا ب .. بوزعوا ال honor وقاعدة بتوزع شغلات
+
+290
+00:19:55,130 --> 00:19:59,630
+يعني مثلاإيجي الصيف أو الشتاء fans بيوزعوا مراوح
+
+291
+00:19:59,630 --> 00:20:02,770
+للناس الفقراء روح صوف ع الدور جيب طب you are rich
+
+292
+00:20:02,770 --> 00:20:07,090
+man so you don't need this this is the problem so
+
+293
+00:20:07,090 --> 00:20:09,410
+the this is why I say okay if you have a money you
+
+294
+00:20:09,410 --> 00:20:13,510
+have everything but the problem is the the main
+
+295
+00:20:13,510 --> 00:20:18,090
+things the main things why we invest because human
+
+296
+00:20:18,090 --> 00:20:23,180
+capitalwhat it means human capital ان احنا نطور في
+
+297
+00:20:23,180 --> 00:20:26,360
+ال human capital تبعنا a human is fine if you just
+
+298
+00:20:26,360 --> 00:20:31,540
+hide this we are human we are human but what it
+
+299
+00:20:31,540 --> 00:20:35,740
+means a human capital it means we have a wealthy
+
+300
+00:20:35,740 --> 00:20:39,860
+human man or human body or a wealthy lady for
+
+301
+00:20:39,860 --> 00:20:46,740
+instance يعني بن آدم يعني بتوزن educated so spend
+
+302
+00:20:46,740 --> 00:20:50,470
+in education is very importantI don't mean
+
+303
+00:20:50,470 --> 00:20:52,610
+education is just primary school and secondary
+
+304
+00:20:52,610 --> 00:20:55,590
+school and other things education is education how
+
+305
+00:20:55,590 --> 00:20:58,530
+for instance even the mechanical people حتى الناس
+
+306
+00:20:58,530 --> 00:21:01,770
+اللي بيصلحوا السيارات they should be educated what
+
+307
+00:21:01,770 --> 00:21:06,950
+it means educated that the level help them to do
+
+308
+00:21:06,950 --> 00:21:10,150
+some advanced mechanical things to the people
+
+309
+00:21:10,150 --> 00:21:14,430
+calledيعني يكون هم متعلمين بحيث لو إجت سيارة واحد،
+
+310
+00:21:14,430 --> 00:21:17,570
+شوفوا كيف بتأثر بال investments، لو إجت سيارة واحد
+
+311
+00:21:17,570 --> 00:21:21,210
+و هذا البن آدم بيعرفش أنه للسيارة هذه، لكن فاتح
+
+312
+00:21:21,210 --> 00:21:24,210
+مكانيكا، هيصلح، وبعد يومين تخرب، هذا البن آدم راح
+
+313
+00:21:24,210 --> 00:21:27,610
+ي .. ي .. يروح يشتري خطأ غير جديد و يتخرب كام مرة
+
+314
+00:21:27,610 --> 00:21:30,430
+و تلات مرة و رابع مرة، so بيصير هضر في الم .. في
+
+315
+00:21:30,430 --> 00:21:33,720
+.. في أموال الدولةلكن if we have educated people
+
+316
+00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,500
+أنا ما بقصد educated people just educated people
+
+317
+00:21:36,500 --> 00:21:40,480
+just know how to read and write لأ education in
+
+318
+00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:44,460
+everything لأن حسب الأبحاث الأخيرة كل ما كان ال ..
+
+319
+00:21:44,460 --> 00:21:47,060
+ال .. ال .. ال social ال .. ال .. ال people are
+
+320
+00:21:47,060 --> 00:21:53,120
+educated ال cost بتبدأ تنخفض okay و and they are
+
+321
+00:21:53,120 --> 00:21:57,400
+wisely use their wealth و كمان هم بيسيروا بحكمة
+
+322
+00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:03,650
+يستخدموا ال .. ال worth تبعتهم okaySo أهم
+
+323
+00:22:03,650 --> 00:22:06,850
+الاستثمارات ال why we invest particularly يعني
+
+324
+00:22:06,850 --> 00:22:09,930
+أنتوا in the .. بآخر سنة أو بتصور تالت سنة أو ان
+
+325
+00:22:09,930 --> 00:22:12,330
+شاء الله بكرا بتيروا أمهات و أباء و أولياء أمور
+
+326
+00:22:12,330 --> 00:22:16,430
+فجزء من الثروة تبعتكم لازم saving يصير فيها عشان
+
+327
+00:22:16,430 --> 00:22:17,770
+to educate your kids.
+
+328
+00:22:20,410 --> 00:22:24,420
+جدّيش احنا بننفق على التعليم؟احنا معانا مدارس
+
+329
+00:22:24,420 --> 00:22:27,540
+الوكالة ومدارس الحكومة it's free لكن how much you
+
+330
+00:22:27,540 --> 00:22:31,880
+spend in your house for education جداش احنا بنصرف
+
+331
+00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,140
+فلوس على أولادنا عشان نعلمهم، جداش احنا بنساعدهم،
+
+332
+00:22:35,140 --> 00:22:37,700
+جداش احنا we treat .. treat them to .. to motivate
+
+333
+00:22:37,700 --> 00:22:40,260
+them to educate or to .. to .. to know about
+
+334
+00:22:40,260 --> 00:22:42,920
+things، جداش احنا بنشيلهم قصص في البيت، جداش
+
+335
+00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:47,320
+بنشيلهم كتب، جداش بناخدهم على مكاتب عامة، جداش ..
+
+336
+00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,680
+this is a part of education not just only the
+
+337
+00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:54,340
+going to schoolيالاش احنا بناخدهم مثلا .. مثلا
+
+338
+00:22:54,340 --> 00:22:57,400
+بمكان and to see this is the life look at this
+
+339
+00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:01,020
+look at this this is education education it
+
+340
+00:23:01,020 --> 00:23:04,500
+doesn't mean just only to go to school مش بس احنا
+
+341
+00:23:04,500 --> 00:23:10,880
+نروح على school okay يعني انا .. يعني this is what
+
+342
+00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,620
+exactly means when you read around education in
+
+343
+00:23:13,620 --> 00:23:16,660
+this particular book education is for developments
+
+344
+00:23:16,660 --> 00:23:21,580
+education not developmentsل .. ل .. لتطوير الدولة
+
+345
+00:23:21,580 --> 00:23:25,460
+و تطوير المجتمع، التعليم بالأخلاق تمام، نعلمهم
+
+346
+00:23:25,460 --> 00:23:29,300
+الأخلاق، نعلمهم الأدب، كله هذا بالأخير، لأنه خلينا
+
+347
+00:23:29,300 --> 00:23:33,460
+نفكر بتفكير بسيط، إذا الولاد مش مقدّبين، الولاد ما
+
+348
+00:23:33,460 --> 00:23:36,060
+عندهم مش أخلاق، ممكن هم يروحوا يسرجوا، يسويوا،
+
+349
+00:23:36,060 --> 00:23:39,380
+يعملواوبالتالي كده هتكلف الأب و الأم و كده هتكلف
+
+350
+00:23:39,380 --> 00:23:42,960
+الدولة و كده هتكلف الهدف وبالتالي كله cost فالهدف
+
+351
+00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,820
+أنه احنا نخفض التكليف طب هذا الولد لما يكون he has
+
+352
+00:23:46,820 --> 00:23:49,900
+a good experience و عنده شغل ممكن نروح مثلا نشوف
+
+353
+00:23:49,900 --> 00:23:53,980
+في بعض الدول ال human capital is important يعني
+
+354
+00:23:53,980 --> 00:23:59,720
+مثلا for instance in Jordan في كان شعار مرفوع
+
+355
+00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:05,640
+الإنسان أغلى ما نملكmajority of graduated people
+
+356
+00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,980
+in Jordan يعني بالأردن أغلب الناس بتتخرج و بروح و
+
+357
+00:24:08,980 --> 00:24:11,200
+بشتغلوا في دول الخليج العربي، بشتغلوا في أوروبا و
+
+358
+00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:15,680
+هذا فهدول في مرة مرة كانت سواء الأردن هي دونا
+
+359
+00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,660
+نفطية بدون نفط، مين النفط طبعا؟ هم الناس المتعلمين
+
+360
+00:24:20,550 --> 00:24:22,990
+فتصوروا لو يكون عندنا ناس professional people
+
+361
+00:24:22,990 --> 00:24:28,290
+متعلمين و بيروحوا بي .. بي .. بينافسوا ال .. ال ..
+
+362
+00:24:28,290 --> 00:24:30,850
+الولاد الآخرين في ال .. في العالم فهي بيكون في ..
+
+363
+00:24:30,850 --> 00:24:33,730
+في .. في .. فلوس تقفل في البلد روحوا إذا حد فيه
+
+364
+00:24:33,730 --> 00:24:36,650
+راح على الكويت أو على الإمارات أو على السعودية أو
+
+365
+00:24:36,650 --> 00:24:40,070
+حتى على بعض الدول في أوروبا في ألمانيا في ..
+
+366
+00:24:40,070 --> 00:24:42,870
+هتلاقي إنه الباكستانيين و الهنود و كذا اللي هم
+
+367
+00:24:42,870 --> 00:24:47,710
+مجول add educated في ناس educated so this is .. is
+
+368
+00:24:47,710 --> 00:24:51,950
+.. is a very important area to investlook at the
+
+369
+00:24:51,950 --> 00:24:55,810
+education as investment tool يعني انظر لل
+
+370
+00:24:55,810 --> 00:24:59,050
+education ك investment tool مش انه انا بس growing
+
+371
+00:24:59,050 --> 00:25:02,570
+up kids لأنه انا اذا spend your money you spend
+
+372
+00:25:02,570 --> 00:25:07,850
+now your money on your kids in the future this kid
+
+373
+00:25:07,850 --> 00:25:12,850
+has a promising future اخلش احنا مابدناش ندفعله
+
+374
+00:25:12,850 --> 00:25:18,130
+فلوس هو he knows how to do fishing يعني هو don't
+
+375
+00:25:19,810 --> 00:25:24,750
+يعني او خلينا نحكي treat or help your kids to know
+
+376
+00:25:24,750 --> 00:25:29,190
+how to do fishing يعني خدوهم على البحر علموهم ان
+
+377
+00:25:29,190 --> 00:25:32,510
+هما يسطادوا then they do it in the future by
+
+378
+00:25:32,510 --> 00:25:37,270
+themselves ف this is .. this is a very important
+
+379
+00:25:37,270 --> 00:25:45,070
+area for investment ما شاء الله ما شاء الله فهي
+
+380
+00:25:45,070 --> 00:25:47,550
+.. هاي مناطق كويسة ان احنا نعمل investment فيها ال
+
+381
+00:25:47,550 --> 00:25:50,810
+educationa human capital and insurance ال
+
+382
+00:25:50,810 --> 00:25:55,630
+insurance أنه نعمل زي ما حكت تأمين له تأمين على
+
+383
+00:25:55,630 --> 00:26:01,600
+الحياة لأنه في المستقبل we don't knowو في عندنا
+
+384
+00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,940
+أنواع كتير من التأمين عادة
+
+385
+00:26:05,940 --> 00:26:10,900
+في التأمين الشركات بيقطع جزء من التأمين و بيعملوا
+
+386
+00:26:10,900 --> 00:26:13,780
+في ال pension funds بيستثمروها و كمان الشركة بتضيف
+
+387
+00:26:13,780 --> 00:26:17,280
+جزء من المقطوع يعني مثلا بيقطع من الراتب الواحد 5%
+
+388
+00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:22,380
+الشركة بتضيف كمان 5% او 10% بيصير عنده 15% هذا كل
+
+389
+00:26:22,380 --> 00:26:27,040
+شهر بيقطع من الراتب as insuranceلما طبعا يحلع
+
+390
+00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:32,580
+التقاعد تبدأ يتم استرجاع هذه المبالغ بمضاعفاتها
+
+391
+00:26:32,580 --> 00:26:36,100
+بحيث أنه هذا يستفيد من ال insurance investment in
+
+392
+00:26:36,100 --> 00:26:40,300
+residence برضه هذا استثمار مهم كتير ال residence
+
+393
+00:26:40,300 --> 00:26:46,920
+أن هو أنه احنا نوفر مكان اقامة يعني بتلاقي ان
+
+394
+00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:54,060
+الواحد بيشتغل وكذا وإشي وممكن يعني ماعنده بيتففي
+
+395
+00:26:54,060 --> 00:26:57,000
+ال individual people they should focus first on as
+
+396
+00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,960
+I said in education و لازم تانيك همان يركزوا على
+
+397
+00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,620
+ال .. ال .. المكان الإقامة تبعهم إذا كان عندك بيت
+
+398
+00:27:04,620 --> 00:27:07,120
+بالإجار انت تفكر how to invest to have your own
+
+399
+00:27:07,120 --> 00:27:13,120
+house لأنه كل ما احنا ال .. عشان تصير رفاهية عشان
+
+400
+00:27:13,120 --> 00:27:15,580
+تصير رفاهية يعني أنا سألتكوا في البداية طب و
+
+401
+00:27:15,580 --> 00:27:17,080
+course is so what you have money you have
+
+402
+00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,520
+everything and you are not educated you don't know
+
+403
+00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,880
+what it means exactly education is .. is .. is a
+
+404
+00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,540
+part of cultureالثقافة يعني you are not educated
+
+405
+00:27:25,540 --> 00:27:29,140
+if you are not treated your neighbor nicely انت مش
+
+406
+00:27:29,140 --> 00:27:33,200
+انسان educated اذا انت بتأذي الجيران because
+
+407
+00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,720
+education is a process is not just stuffing the
+
+408
+00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,620
+knowledge in your mind مش انه احنا بس بنحط ال
+
+409
+00:27:39,620 --> 00:27:43,220
+knowledge في رأسنا و بنعبل knowledge و that's it
+
+410
+00:27:43,220 --> 00:27:49,370
+it is a behavior هو سلوكسلوك حضاري okay ف
+
+411
+00:27:49,370 --> 00:27:53,410
+investment in residence انه احنا نستثمر فيه انه
+
+412
+00:27:53,410 --> 00:27:58,790
+يكون عندنا مكان لل .. للسكن مكان للإقامة و في ناس
+
+413
+00:27:58,790 --> 00:28:02,930
+مثلا اه .. فهذا ايه بيعمل .. بيعمل افضل لما يكون
+
+414
+00:28:02,930 --> 00:28:08,290
+الانسان .. و بيعمل تطور و بعدين المثل بيقول العشب
+
+415
+00:28:08,290 --> 00:28:12,790
+grass is not growing in the running rocket يعني
+
+416
+00:28:12,790 --> 00:28:17,310
+العشب لا ينمو على صخرة متدهرجةyou know what it
+
+417
+00:28:17,310 --> 00:28:24,030
+means؟ العشب لا ينمو على دجرة .. على صخرة متدهرجة
+
+418
+00:28:24,030 --> 00:28:28,710
+يعني هلأ لو أجينا احنا هذه الصخرة بتدهرج و حطينا
+
+419
+00:28:28,710 --> 00:28:34,190
+عليها ميه بيجي عشب عليها؟ لكن if this is fixed and
+
+420
+00:28:34,190 --> 00:28:38,510
+you water it ممكن ينمو العشب على هذه الصخرة لو إن
+
+421
+00:28:38,510 --> 00:28:42,990
+مكان عايش فيه exactly و خاصة هذا residence فبيكون
+
+422
+00:28:42,990 --> 00:28:47,680
+في .. بيصير في growing up و بيصير في ..في
+
+423
+00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:52,320
+inspiration and other things هدى areas جديدة كمان
+
+424
+00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:56,180
+في انه انت how to invest I'm talking about now
+
+425
+00:28:56,180 --> 00:28:59,700
+individual investments انا بحكي عن ال individual
+
+426
+00:28:59,700 --> 00:29:03,320
+investment استثمارات الشخصية مش استثمارات الشركات
+
+427
+00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,960
+طبعا في مادة اسمها personal finance طبعا احنا مش
+
+428
+00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,700
+موجودة عندنا بالعالم العربي اسمها personal finance
+
+429
+00:29:09,700 --> 00:29:12,700
+ايش personal finance يعني how to manage your
+
+430
+00:29:12,700 --> 00:29:18,340
+finance كيف انتوا تديروا أموالكمكيف احنا معايا
+
+431
+00:29:18,340 --> 00:29:21,240
+مصارى كيف اديرها؟ و انا student يعني انتوا هلأ
+
+432
+00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:25,840
+student بتشتغلوش بس still you have something in
+
+433
+00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,100
+your hands how to invest in this كيف احنا ممكن
+
+434
+00:29:29,100 --> 00:29:32,940
+نستثمر هذه الأشياء? saving for retirement and the
+
+435
+00:29:32,940 --> 00:29:38,960
+assumption of riskال .. ال .. الاستثمار من أجل ال
+
+436
+00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:44,060
+.. ال retirement .. ال .. التقاعد و .. واحتمالات
+
+437
+00:29:44,060 --> 00:29:47,180
+الخطر يعني واحد مثلا الله سبحان الله كان في الطريق
+
+438
+00:29:47,180 --> 00:29:52,280
+و صار حادث سيارة واحد مثلا في طائرة و صار مشكلة
+
+439
+00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:56,120
+واحد مثلا يعني بصير مخاطر معينة في .. في .. في
+
+440
+00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,540
+الحياة راح .. راح زار دولة معينة و كان فيها كوليرة
+
+441
+00:29:58,540 --> 00:30:03,200
+و إلى أخرها و .. and he's .. he's infected ف ..
+
+442
+00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:07,860
+يعني زي ما يقولوها القرش الأبيض بينفع بال .. ولا
+
+443
+00:30:07,860 --> 00:30:11,700
+تجعل يدك مغلولة إلى عنقك ولا تبسطها كل البسط يعني
+
+444
+00:30:11,700 --> 00:30:14,840
+هذا saving يعني okay لازم الواحد يكون عنده شوية
+
+445
+00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:19,080
+saving و .. عشان المستقبل retirement planning
+
+446
+00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,800
+models في عندنا retirement planning models في
+
+447
+00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:26,680
+عندنا عدة models أو وسائل لنعمل retirement
+
+448
+00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:31,460
+planning موجودين في .. نعطيكوا إياه
+
+449
+00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,160
+في عندنا قدة أنواع من retirement planning
+
+450
+00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:44,840
+فبتشوفوها
+
+451
+00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:54,260
+في صفحة 970 صفحة
+
+452
+00:30:54,260 --> 00:30:58,460
+970 manage
+
+453
+00:30:58,460 --> 00:31:02,100
+your own portfolio or rely on others manage your
+
+454
+00:31:02,100 --> 00:31:07,530
+own portfolio يعنيممكن انت تعمل محفظة استثمارية
+
+455
+00:31:07,530 --> 00:31:14,730
+لوحدك يعني شوفوا كيف يعني خلاني احكي مثلا سهم بلد
+
+456
+00:31:14,730 --> 00:31:20,810
+تجدش تمانعه اربع دولار خمس دولار عشر دولار عشر
+
+457
+00:31:20,810 --> 00:31:25,970
+دولار نفترض نفترض ترضه في عندنا أسهم في السوق
+
+458
+00:31:25,970 --> 00:31:27,870
+الفلسطيني الأوراق المالية two dollar و three
+
+459
+00:31:27,870 --> 00:31:32,710
+dollars just فكروا لو احنا فكرنا انتوا فكرتوا
+
+460
+00:31:32,710 --> 00:31:38,080
+لحاجة to do this investmentبتصور يعني أنه ممكن
+
+461
+00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:42,920
+يصير فيه إشي نعطيكوا مثال بسيط، هلأ لو شركة Paltel
+
+462
+00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,440
+ثمنها تلاتة دولار و نص أو أربعة دولار okay؟
+
+463
+00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,800
+الأربعة دولار في تلاتة شاكل و نص، يعني نحكي لنفتر
+
+464
+00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:55,060
+ست عشر .. خمس عشر شاكل، خمس عشر شاكل، سهم واحد،
+
+465
+00:31:55,060 --> 00:32:01,220
+خمس عشر شاكل، يعني بالشهر لو احنا .. لو وفرنا مية
+
+466
+00:32:01,220 --> 00:32:06,540
+و خمسين شاكل، نشتري عشر أسهم، صح؟طيب هذا العشرة
+
+467
+00:32:06,540 --> 00:32:10,000
+أسهم لو احنا فكرنا كل شهر يعني انا بتصور انه ممكن
+
+468
+00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:15,360
+.. ممكن احنا نوفر بالمتوسط اتوفروا خمس أسهم بالشهر
+
+469
+00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:19,240
+نهجة نقول يعني خمسة سبعي شاكل لو كل شهر وفرتوا
+
+470
+00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,900
+هالخمس أسهم هدول انا بتوقع and leave them after
+
+471
+00:32:21,900 --> 00:32:24,920
+ten years خليهم .. سيبقوا هنا بدة عشر سنين يعني do
+
+472
+00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:31,240
+this after ten years I think هتسألوا انه هتكونوا
+
+473
+00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:38,870
+من الناس اللي معاكم فلوسtrust me يعني شوفوا خمسة و
+
+474
+00:32:38,870 --> 00:32:42,770
+سبعين شاكل الخمسة و سبعين شاكل لو احنا حسبناهم
+
+475
+00:32:42,770 --> 00:32:46,050
+حسبة بسيطة يعني انا بشوف ناس بنجوسين يعني انا
+
+476
+00:32:46,050 --> 00:32:48,870
+مابقبل التدخين ان انا شوفت واحد بدخن باليوم
+
+477
+00:32:48,870 --> 00:32:51,930
+القلبتين دخان يعني كدهش القلبتين دخان عشرة شاكل
+
+478
+00:32:51,930 --> 00:32:55,230
+عشرين شاكل عشرين شاكل اضربهم في تلاتين يوم هي
+
+479
+00:32:55,230 --> 00:32:59,270
+ستمية شاكل يعني هذا البناء ادم ابقى ستمية شاكل اكم
+
+480
+00:32:59,270 --> 00:33:03,430
+سهم بيقدر يشتري احسب
+
+481
+00:33:03,430 --> 00:33:08,800
+خمستاشر شاكل120 سهم 120 سهم بتعرفوا ال 120 سهم
+
+482
+00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:13,300
+هدول لو عمل نصهم بالشهر اشتراهم لمدة عشر سنة شو
+
+483
+00:33:13,300 --> 00:33:19,240
+بيصير؟ بيصير مليونار اه اه just think in this way
+
+484
+00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:23,840
+فكروا بالطريقة هذه و خاصة ان ال inflation كمان
+
+485
+00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,820
+التضخم طبعا
+
+486
+00:33:31,500 --> 00:33:34,380
+اتصور إنه كان متر الأرض قبل عشر سنين جداش واليوم
+
+487
+00:33:34,380 --> 00:33:39,740
+جداش، طبعا؟ يعني just think on this way فكروا بها
+
+488
+00:33:39,740 --> 00:33:42,700
+بطريقة هذه، اتصوروا إن شركة ياهو كانت في اليوم
+
+489
+00:33:42,700 --> 00:33:47,340
+والأيام ثمنها دولار واحد، فكروا جوجل كانت في اليوم
+
+490
+00:33:47,340 --> 00:33:53,260
+والأيام ثمنها دولار، في شركة كانت red call الآن
+
+491
+00:33:53,260 --> 00:33:56,500
+ثمنها تلاتمائية وخمسين دولار بدأت بدولار واحد، one
+
+492
+00:33:56,500 --> 00:34:03,380
+dollar350 دولار تصوروا أنت شاري ألف سهم ب ألف
+
+493
+00:34:03,380 --> 00:34:09,500
+دولار صاروا جداش 350 ألف دولار بقى this is long
+
+494
+00:34:09,500 --> 00:34:12,780
+term investment يعني مش تروح تقول والله أستاذ حاجة
+
+495
+00:34:12,780 --> 00:34:16,080
+هيك تروح تاني يوم تبيعه هتخسره بس I'm talking
+
+496
+00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,960
+about long term investment أنا بحكي على استثمارات
+
+497
+00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:25,160
+توريد أجلmanage your own portfolio or rely on
+
+498
+00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,400
+others طب إيش مش قادرين أنتوا مش فاضيين تديروا
+
+499
+00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:31,380
+محافظكم خلوا أخرين يدروا لكم خاصة في شركات
+
+500
+00:34:31,380 --> 00:34:35,020
+الاستثمارات في في أوروبا في أو في الولايات المتحدة
+
+501
+00:34:35,020 --> 00:34:39,720
+الأمريكية في دول الخليج العربي كمان في دول الخليج
+
+502
+00:34:39,720 --> 00:34:44,880
+العربي برضه في في الأردن في في مصر في شركات
+
+503
+00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:50,480
+استثمار مهمتها أن هي تدير هذه الاستثمارات okayطبعا
+
+504
+00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,540
+احنا we are not talking ان انت you are millionaire
+
+505
+00:34:53,540 --> 00:34:57,040
+هدول الناس اللي ال .. ال .. الناس اللي ال .. ال
+
+506
+00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,160
+millionaire people اصلا they are starting from the
+
+507
+00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,820
+very scratch from the very beginning from zero
+
+508
+00:35:01,820 --> 00:35:09,340
+many people they not born from rich families كتير
+
+509
+00:35:09,340 --> 00:35:14,980
+ناس مانولدوش من عائلات اصلا غنية اه بالظبط that's
+
+510
+00:35:14,980 --> 00:35:18,280
+think on this حوروا .. اذا حطوا في بالكم education
+
+511
+00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:22,470
+is important areaالتعليم هو is important area for
+
+512
+00:35:22,470 --> 00:35:26,750
+education for the developments و خاصة the .. the
+
+513
+00:35:26,750 --> 00:35:29,010
+.. the competition in education شوفوا ال areas تبع
+
+514
+00:35:29,010 --> 00:35:31,450
+ال education اللي فيها development و promising
+
+515
+00:35:31,450 --> 00:35:38,330
+areas مهمة كتير ال investment in residence ال
+
+516
+00:35:38,330 --> 00:35:41,190
+houses و الشغلات الاستثمر في ال houses و المكان
+
+517
+00:35:41,190 --> 00:35:46,430
+اللي فانا retirement التقاعد و المخاطر المستقبلية
+
+518
+00:35:46,430 --> 00:35:50,830
+manage your own portfolio and rely on otherstax
+
+519
+00:35:50,830 --> 00:35:57,570
+sheltering for invisible investors ال tax
+
+520
+00:35:57,570 --> 00:36:02,350
+sheltering مش كتير احنا هنركز عليها احنا ها في ال
+
+521
+00:36:02,350 --> 00:36:08,570
+investment لأنه يعني هاي خاصة معادل الكتاب حسب
+
+522
+00:36:08,570 --> 00:36:13,340
+القوانين الأمريكيةال pension funds ال pension
+
+523
+00:36:13,340 --> 00:36:16,720
+funds صناديخ التقاعد ايه صناديخ التقاعد صناديخ
+
+524
+00:36:16,720 --> 00:36:20,840
+التقاعد بدأت ايه تسوي صناديخ التقاعد يعني just انه
+
+525
+00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:25,740
+تاخد ال investors بتاخد منهم مثلا خمسين دولار
+
+526
+00:36:25,740 --> 00:36:30,820
+بالشهر ال pension funds هدول صاروا من اقوى صناديخ
+
+527
+00:36:30,820 --> 00:36:33,700
+الاستثمار و صاروا تملك شركات كبيرة في العالم هدول
+
+528
+00:36:33,700 --> 00:36:35,760
+جاعدين يساعدون على اقتصاد العالم ال pension funds
+
+529
+00:36:37,090 --> 00:36:40,830
+أه صندوق التقاعد يعني شوفوا أكام موظف موجود في
+
+530
+00:36:40,830 --> 00:36:44,970
+العالم، يا ديش تم اقتطاع من رواتبهم؟ و أين هدول
+
+531
+00:36:44,970 --> 00:36:48,770
+بيروحوا بيعملوا investments؟ يعني لو أنتوا تصوروا
+
+532
+00:36:48,770 --> 00:36:54,210
+أنه الناس اللي عندنا hand بدل ما هم ي .. ي ..
+
+533
+00:36:54,210 --> 00:36:56,750
+يروحوا يضيعوا الفلوس تبعتهم، في ناس كتير بتضيع
+
+534
+00:36:56,750 --> 00:37:02,590
+الفلوس على شغلات مش لازمة يعني، هدول إيش بيصير؟ لو
+
+535
+00:37:02,590 --> 00:37:08,180
+هدول عملنا لهم investmentو تم في شركات بتاخد ال
+
+536
+00:37:08,180 --> 00:37:10,620
+pensions هدول بتاخد الأموال هذه و بتعمل ال channel
+
+537
+00:37:10,620 --> 00:37:14,480
+الشركات الأملاقة الكبيرة و الضحمة هذه من وين إجت؟
+
+538
+00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,660
+هذه من ال one dollar و ال one hundred dollar إجت
+
+539
+00:37:17,660 --> 00:37:22,840
+من ال one dollar و ال one hundred dollar ففي
+
+540
+00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,420
+.. في برنامج اسمه .. اسمه the poorest of the poor
+
+541
+00:37:25,420 --> 00:37:28,520
+و أنا إلاقة في ال .. في هذا البرنامج في .. في
+
+542
+00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:33,900
+Bangladesh و حتى إجت ناس ال .. ال .. ال ..اللي
+
+543
+00:37:33,900 --> 00:37:37,600
+كانت إلها دور هي و Youness، Youness هو أخد جائزة
+
+544
+00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:41,520
+novel في إنشاء هذا ال investment bank أو اللي
+
+545
+00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:46,040
+يسمونه Grameen Bank هذا .. they targeted .. they
+
+546
+00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:50,100
+targeted the poorest of the poor عارفين؟ هذا بس
+
+547
+00:37:50,100 --> 00:37:53,740
+بيعمل investment في ال the poorest of the poor you
+
+548
+00:37:53,740 --> 00:37:56,680
+know what it means؟ أفقر الفقراء، فقراء، بس
+
+549
+00:37:56,680 --> 00:38:00,800
+بيستهدف .. اليوم هذول الناس they own 16 companies
+
+550
+00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:04,630
+one of the largest companies in Bangladeshديهم
+
+551
+00:38:04,630 --> 00:38:09,590
+هدول الناس إلهم أكبر ست عشر شركة في بنجلدش، تصور
+
+552
+00:38:09,590 --> 00:38:15,350
+وين؟ the poorest of the poor، أفقر فخرة، يعني the
+
+553
+00:38:15,350 --> 00:38:18,970
+problem is sometimes why poor are poor because
+
+554
+00:38:18,970 --> 00:38:23,650
+sometimes they want to be poorيعني هذه الدراسة
+
+555
+00:38:23,650 --> 00:38:27,170
+عملت في .. في .. في بعض المناطق في .. أظن في
+
+556
+00:38:27,170 --> 00:38:30,790
+السودان او في دولة من الدول الأفريقية the main
+
+557
+00:38:30,790 --> 00:38:35,170
+question is why poor are poor؟ ليش الفقراء هم
+
+558
+00:38:35,170 --> 00:38:38,650
+فقراء؟ in .. in .. in .. the majority of the
+
+559
+00:38:38,650 --> 00:38:41,950
+questions say because they want to be poor كانوا
+
+560
+00:38:41,950 --> 00:38:47,250
+يعطوه مثل انه الرجال يضلوا قاعد في البيت مابدوش
+
+561
+00:38:47,250 --> 00:38:51,770
+يشتغل so he .. he .. he should be poor very simple
+
+562
+00:38:53,250 --> 00:38:57,730
+أه very simple يعني أنه يعني مرات ال poorest of
+
+563
+00:38:57,730 --> 00:39:01,630
+the poor مرات something are off their hands مرات
+
+564
+00:39:01,630 --> 00:39:05,430
+بيكون هدول الناس off their hands حاجات خارج عن
+
+565
+00:39:05,430 --> 00:39:09,390
+إطارهم و عن إمكانيات ممكن يكونوا poor لكن حسب
+
+566
+00:39:09,390 --> 00:39:13,250
+الدراسة هاي بتحكي أن ال poorest of the poor they
+
+567
+00:39:13,250 --> 00:39:15,940
+want to be poor because they want to be poorلأن
+
+568
+00:39:15,940 --> 00:39:19,040
+هما بدهم يكونوا هيك بعض الناس they don't send
+
+569
+00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:22,020
+their kids to the schools شوفوا كده بودوش ال kids
+
+570
+00:39:22,020 --> 00:39:25,220
+تبعهم I know them personally أنا بعرف some
+
+571
+00:39:25,220 --> 00:39:27,140
+families they don't send their kids to school
+
+572
+00:39:27,140 --> 00:39:30,260
+because they want to save their money ناس بودوش
+
+573
+00:39:30,260 --> 00:39:32,760
+بيودهم على المدارس عشان بدهم يوفروا فلوسهم طيب
+
+574
+00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,300
+okay now it's fine you can save the money but in
+
+575
+00:39:35,300 --> 00:39:37,120
+the future you will lose a lot of money
+
+576
+00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,920
+لأنه بالمستقبل هيكون ولادكم يشتغلوا بأجراء عند
+
+577
+00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,180
+الناس و بالأخر they cannot generate money، مش
+
+578
+00:39:47,180 --> 00:39:50,700
+هجيبوا الفلوس، so they think in this way and in
+
+579
+00:39:50,700 --> 00:39:54,840
+the future they become poor. Take another example,
+
+580
+00:39:54,980 --> 00:39:57,520
+sometimes الrich people they do the same، مرات
+
+581
+00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:01,150
+الناس الأغنياء بيسوي نفس الشيء.Okay يعني I know
+
+582
+00:40:01,150 --> 00:40:04,290
+some .. واحد من أصدقائي كان مع بعض، أقول له أنتوا
+
+583
+00:40:04,290 --> 00:40:07,930
+ليش؟ في ناس .. بقولله طبعا مش من فلسطين، بقولله ..
+
+584
+00:40:07,930 --> 00:40:09,650
+بقوللي واه اللي احنا متعلمين، احنا ال .. أنا
+
+585
+00:40:09,650 --> 00:40:12,010
+الوحيد اللي في القرية متعلم، بقولله ليش؟ بقوللي
+
+586
+00:40:12,010 --> 00:40:14,210
+لأنه أغلبهم merchants people and they don't
+
+587
+00:40:14,210 --> 00:40:19,520
+believe in education، يعني أغلبهم merchant، تجارو
+
+588
+00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:23,260
+بيقتنعوش في التعليم بقوله هذول بعد عشرين سنة
+
+589
+00:40:23,260 --> 00:40:25,740
+تلاتين سنة شوفوا اتفرجوا في حالهم لإنه حيسير فيه
+
+590
+00:40:25,740 --> 00:40:28,320
+تغيير في الدنيا هذا كان قبل ال 15 سنة عشرين سنة
+
+591
+00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:32,960
+فتصوروا إيش اللي بيسير إن هذول ال merchant و
+
+592
+00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:36,560
+التجارة بتحتاج ل international relationship بتحتاج
+
+593
+00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,960
+ل .. اليوم صارت ال complicated life ف if these
+
+594
+00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,460
+people cannot fit with the new models so they
+
+595
+00:40:43,460 --> 00:40:46,800
+cannot face the lifeبيقدروش يواجهوا مطالبات الحياة
+
+596
+00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:54,540
+كتير شركات انتهت وخلصت because they cannot live ..
+
+597
+00:40:54,540 --> 00:40:58,920
+they cannot meet the challenges of this life
+
+598
+00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:04,000
+defined contribution plans pension funds هدول أو
+
+599
+00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,940
+صناديخ التقاعد investment
+
+600
+00:41:07,940 --> 00:41:10,280
+policy is essentially the same as for tax
+
+601
+00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,100
+qualified individual retirement accountيعني هدول
+
+602
+00:41:13,100 --> 00:41:16,240
+تقريبا .. او كمان هدول ال pension funds الموفاة من
+
+603
+00:41:16,240 --> 00:41:19,560
+الدرائب يعني زي مثلا احنا بنستثمر أموال الأيتام
+
+604
+00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:26,340
+مثلا نستثمر أموال ال .. بعض المساكين مثلا هدول
+
+605
+00:41:26,340 --> 00:41:30,400
+بيجيهم مثلا تبرعات و كذا و إلى أخره تمام؟ هدول
+
+606
+00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:32,360
+they .. they should know how to spend this money
+
+607
+00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:36,480
+صحيح هي قليلة صحيح هي محتاجينها لكن at the end we
+
+608
+00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:40,120
+should look carefully how to spend this money
+
+609
+00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:41,740
+تمام؟
+
+610
+00:41:43,130 --> 00:41:47,150
+لازم احنا يعني مثلا من خبرتنا البسيطة طبعا هذه مش
+
+611
+00:41:47,150 --> 00:41:50,930
+موجودة .. اظن ان كانت في دولة في أفريقيا وكانوا
+
+612
+00:41:50,930 --> 00:41:54,290
+أصدقاءنا يحكونا بتعطيهم مثلا مية دولار واحدة من
+
+613
+00:41:54,290 --> 00:41:58,730
+الفتيات بيعطوها مية دولار فقيرة مسكينة يعني فباشرة
+
+614
+00:41:58,730 --> 00:42:05,800
+راحت اشترت ملابس فيهم ملابس يعنييعني خلينا نحكي
+
+615
+00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,820
+الأغنياء اللي بيشتروها طب اوكي اشتري الملابس اللي
+
+616
+00:42:08,820 --> 00:42:11,980
+بتناسبك لكن not in one hundred dollar some people
+
+617
+00:42:11,980 --> 00:42:14,460
+I think some people in .. in here they can't do
+
+618
+00:42:14,460 --> 00:42:18,520
+this بعض الناس هل ممكن يعملوا الكلام هذا انه انا
+
+619
+00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,980
+ممكن اعطي ال .. ال hundred dollar اروح ينفقها على
+
+620
+00:42:20,980 --> 00:42:24,200
+شغلات مابلزموش لأ اول اشي فيه شغلات أساسية بعدين
+
+621
+00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:26,140
+بنحكي في شغلات أخرى
+
+622
+00:42:33,390 --> 00:42:36,130
+investment in long run advice for mutual funds
+
+623
+00:42:36,130 --> 00:42:41,930
+industry الاستثمار في المادة البعيد يفضل استثمار
+
+624
+00:42:41,930 --> 00:42:45,830
+في مجالات الصناعة لأنه زي ما حكينا الصناعة هي
+
+625
+00:42:45,830 --> 00:42:50,290
+بتعمل ال .. ال .. الورث الحقيقي زي ما حكينا في
+
+626
+00:42:50,290 --> 00:42:53,590
+chapter one don't try to out guess the market by
+
+627
+00:42:53,590 --> 00:42:57,490
+moving your money in and out يعني في ال long term
+
+628
+00:42:57,490 --> 00:43:02,240
+تو زي ما حكينافي ال long term بنفعش أنه ندخل و
+
+629
+00:43:02,240 --> 00:43:06,340
+نطلع في الاستثمارات يعني مثلا أنا قررت أنه كل شهر
+
+630
+00:43:06,340 --> 00:43:10,580
+أحط من مصروفي خمسين شاكل الخمسين شاكل هدول باشتري
+
+631
+00:43:10,580 --> 00:43:15,320
+فيهم تلات أسهم أشتري فيهم في شركة بالتر okay بعد
+
+632
+00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:19,200
+ست شهور بنفعش أنسحب أروح أحول من بالتر لشركة أخر
+
+633
+00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:23,760
+لأنه ممكن أخسر لكن just fix with this لأنه
+
+634
+00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:28,320
+الاحتمالات أنه أنت تنجح أكترحتى لو كان السعر ممكن
+
+635
+00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:31,560
+ينزل لأنك انت invest in the long term يعني أعطيكوا
+
+636
+00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:36,100
+مثال واضح أسعار الدهب قبل تلت شهور قداش كانت؟ كانت
+
+637
+00:43:36,100 --> 00:43:38,920
+ألف و ست ألف و ستمية و اشي و ألف و سبعمية قبل
+
+638
+00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:43,360
+السنة كانت ألف و تمامية الآن أسعار الدهب بالألف و
+
+639
+00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:46,640
+أربعمية ممكن إذا أنتوا عاملين long term investment
+
+640
+00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:48,660
+don't withdraw your money from the market
+
+641
+00:43:48,660 --> 00:43:52,900
+ماتسحبوش، ماتبيعوش خلاص، ضلك ثابت لأن definitely
+
+642
+00:43:52,900 --> 00:43:57,590
+أن الدهب هيطلعلأنه هيك طبيعي فالإنسان اللي بيروح
+
+643
+00:43:57,590 --> 00:44:02,930
+بيسحب و بيخاف هيخسر لكن يضلك .. يضلك ماشي، still
+
+644
+00:44:02,930 --> 00:44:05,690
+.. still the .. the gold is a good area to
+
+645
+00:44:05,690 --> 00:44:09,430
+investment بضل الدهب اليوم كمان هو area كويسة بال
+
+646
+00:44:09,430 --> 00:44:13,490
+investment ف don't go in and out خاصة بال long
+
+647
+00:44:13,490 --> 00:44:17,110
+term investment بال short term you can do this بس
+
+648
+00:44:17,110 --> 00:44:19,470
+مين اللي بيقدر يعمل ال short term investment؟ the
+
+649
+00:44:19,470 --> 00:44:23,510
+qualified investorsيعني الناس المستثمرين القويين
+
+650
+00:44:23,510 --> 00:44:26,250
+بيقدروا يبيعوا و يشتريوا في نفس اللحظة أه يبيعوا و
+
+651
+00:44:26,250 --> 00:44:29,630
+يشتريوا في الشرطة بس بال long term لأ ال people
+
+652
+00:44:29,630 --> 00:44:34,050
+اللي اللي بدهم security في المستقبل بدهم residency
+
+653
+00:44:34,050 --> 00:44:37,450
+بدهم education بدهم كذا فممكن يستثمروا فيه لفترات
+
+654
+00:44:37,450 --> 00:44:45,890
+بعيدة diversity
+
+655
+00:44:45,890 --> 00:44:48,650
+to reduce risk حاولوا أن نوع في الاستثمار تبعنا
+
+656
+00:44:49,650 --> 00:44:53,010
+يعني احنا استثمرنا في .. في غزة، نستثمر في الضفر
+
+657
+00:44:53,010 --> 00:44:55,810
+الغربية، نستثمر في مصر، نستثمر في .. في المناطق
+
+658
+00:44:55,810 --> 00:45:00,190
+هذه بحيث انه نعمل diversity استثمرنا مثلا في .. في
+
+659
+00:45:00,190 --> 00:45:03,070
+السيارات، نستثمر في الأغزية، نستثمر في الصناعات،
+
+660
+00:45:03,070 --> 00:45:08,910
+نحاول برضه نعمل diversity put .. put money in
+
+661
+00:45:08,910 --> 00:45:11,910
+stocks, bonds and money market mutual funds، حطوا
+
+662
+00:45:11,910 --> 00:45:15,490
+مصاريكوا في شغلات كتير يعني زي اما احنا مانحطش في
+
+663
+00:45:15,490 --> 00:45:21,460
+.. في سلة واحدة لأنه ممكن تصير فيه خطريعني مثلا
+
+664
+00:45:21,460 --> 00:45:24,940
+تاجر بس بركز في العملة يعني أو تاجر بركز بس في
+
+665
+00:45:24,940 --> 00:45:28,120
+العقارات ننصحوش نقوله okay جرب اشتغل في الملابس
+
+666
+00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:32,340
+جرب اشتغل في كذا نوع شوف ايش .. ممكن يجيلك تاني
+
+667
+00:45:32,340 --> 00:45:36,760
+يتعود okay
+
+668
+00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:42,920
+avoid keeping 401k money in a company's low risk
+
+669
+00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:47,120
+default investment يعني حاولوا طبعا هذه 401
+
+670
+00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:52,600
+بالمعادلة يعني حاولوا ماتحطوشفلوس كتير في شركة
+
+671
+00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:57,380
+واحدة حاولوا يعني تتنوعوا في .. لأنه ممكن .. طبعا
+
+672
+00:45:57,380 --> 00:46:01,340
+احنا بنحكي probability احتمالات الاحتمالات تبعتنا
+
+673
+00:46:01,340 --> 00:46:06,300
+انه لو احنا حاطينا في just one company ممكن ..
+
+674
+00:46:06,300 --> 00:46:09,000
+ومانخليش ال big portion يكون في particular company
+
+675
+00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:11,740
+يعني انا أعطيكم مثال، طبعا كنا نحكي على شركات
+
+676
+00:46:11,740 --> 00:46:17,460
+تقنية في شركة اسمها Cisco شركة Cisco هذه من أكبر
+
+677
+00:46:17,460 --> 00:46:21,220
+شركة انتاج ال hardware في العالممر السعر طبعا طالع
+
+678
+00:46:21,220 --> 00:46:29,560
+من 17-18 وصل ل 67 فجأة فجأة من 67 نزل ل 15 طبعا
+
+679
+00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:35,160
+اتصوروا .. اتصوروا واحد حاطط كل فلوسه عنه خلاص فيه
+
+680
+00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:40,000
+بيكون فيه معلومات صارت في السوق تسربت وكذا
+
+681
+00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:43,100
+وبالتالي صار فيها هيك طبعا؟ وبالتالي اللي عمل
+
+682
+00:46:43,100 --> 00:46:46,040
+investment في هذه الشركات هيكون وضعه .. بلاش احنا
+
+683
+00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:51,120
+بالتل في غزهان وصلت في يوم الأيام 16بدأت تتراجع
+
+684
+00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:55,900
+لوصلت خمسة تصوروا يعني واحد ثروة كل حطة تشاري فيها
+
+685
+00:46:55,900 --> 00:47:00,640
+في بالتل عشرة ولا اتناشر يعني شاريله مثلا مبلغ
+
+686
+00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:04,480
+معين من ستة عشر لخمسة لخمسة يعني تقريبا تلاتمية في
+
+687
+00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:08,960
+المية من ثروته راحت خسارة يعني اللي حاطة الف دولار
+
+688
+00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,840
+وصله لتلاتمية او لمائتين دولار طب تصوروا اللي حاطة
+
+689
+00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:15,240
+مائة الف دولار كده وصله تلاتين الف دولار فبنحجزله
+
+690
+00:47:15,240 --> 00:47:19,860
+خرفة في .. في الشفة يعني فبنيجي بقوله لأ دوق ..
+
+691
+00:47:22,590 --> 00:47:30,370
+لازم التنويع يصير و التنويع مش تنويع بأي إشي لازم
+
+692
+00:47:30,370 --> 00:47:34,330
+يكون تنويع في .. يكون في equities يكون ال
+
+693
+00:47:34,330 --> 00:47:37,390
+correlation negative إيش ال correlation negative؟
+
+694
+00:47:37,390 --> 00:47:41,010
+لو بالة طلعت نزلت في واحدة تانية كبيرة هتطلع فهو
+
+695
+00:47:41,010 --> 00:47:46,850
+خسرته هن هتعوض في ربحه هن okay this is the ..by
+
+696
+00:47:46,850 --> 00:47:49,950
+worry of investing a large percentage of your
+
+697
+00:47:49,950 --> 00:47:54,670
+company stocks Investment horizon determines which
+
+698
+00:47:54,670 --> 00:47:59,730
+risk-free rates to choose الاستثمار الطويل كان
+
+699
+00:47:59,730 --> 00:48:03,170
+بحدد كمان المخاطر اللي ممكن نتحملها make simple
+
+700
+00:48:03,170 --> 00:48:06,530
+investment choices such as target date retirement
+
+701
+00:48:06,530 --> 00:48:11,110
+funds حاولوا تسهلوا عملية الاستثمار تبعتكم مثلا
+
+702
+00:48:11,110 --> 00:48:15,630
+انتوا اليومبتكونوا اتقرروا يعني كل واحد بده يحط في
+
+703
+00:48:15,630 --> 00:48:20,650
+رأسه هدف بالاستثمار حسب كل واحد ايش ال .. ايش اللي
+
+704
+00:48:20,650 --> 00:48:24,750
+.. و صدقوني كل واحد بيحط هدف بيصله بإذن الله يعني
+
+705
+00:48:24,750 --> 00:48:28,930
+لكن المشكلة ان ال people اللي عايشين بدون هدف ليش؟
+
+706
+00:48:28,930 --> 00:48:33,030
+لأن كل ما تحط هدف بدك تسعى لتحقيقه لكن لو مافعلكي
+
+707
+00:48:33,030 --> 00:48:36,550
+اش هدف مش هتسعى لتحقيقه just by chance ممكن هتيجي
+
+708
+00:48:36,550 --> 00:48:42,040
+الحياة معاك هيك اه فش اش صدفة طبعاأي بالظبط و
+
+709
+00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,580
+بالتالي ايش ال retirement plan نيجي احنا و نقول
+
+710
+00:48:44,580 --> 00:48:49,800
+والله انا .. انا يعني مثلا انا كتير اشوف أنفلة من
+
+711
+00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,100
+طلاب و طالب هتيجي يقول احنا لجيت في السنة الرابعة
+
+712
+00:48:52,100 --> 00:48:56,620
+انا about to finish انا خطتي مثلا بعد مثلا بدك
+
+713
+00:48:56,620 --> 00:49:01,120
+تعمل مجلس سيارة بديك مصاري طبعا مثلا فلازم تخبر
+
+714
+00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:06,760
+أبوكي بالكلام هذا عشان هو يعمل مثلا خليني افهمك
+
+715
+00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:10,960
+كدهلازم تخبره ليش عشان هو كمان to put his in his
+
+716
+00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:15,680
+account يعمل حسابه طيب دي نفترض أنه أنت بدك الكلام
+
+717
+00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:19,900
+هذا أنه أنا بدي أسوي الكلام هذا okay أنا بدي أدفع
+
+718
+00:49:19,900 --> 00:49:24,260
+بديك تفكر بطريقة طب أنا بعد خمس سنين بدي أشتري
+
+719
+00:49:24,260 --> 00:49:28,160
+سيارة بس أنا هيك بفكر how .. how we can do this طب
+
+720
+00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:31,920
+إذا كنتوا عائلة من زوج و زوجة و أولاد طيب هم بديوا
+
+721
+00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:36,780
+نفكروا ببيت لازم يحطوا الخطة تبعتهمالخطة هذه بده
+
+722
+00:49:36,780 --> 00:49:40,380
+تكون مثلا انا بعد عشر سنين بيكفي ندفع أجار مثلا،
+
+723
+00:49:40,380 --> 00:49:44,480
+بدنا يكون بيت، في ناس مربعات بيكونوش يفكروا wisely
+
+724
+00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:48,160
+بيكون هو بيدفع أجار بيت يعني متين دولار و ممكن هو
+
+725
+00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,040
+يروح يجيب شقة ب تلاتمية و خمسين دولار يدفع أقصاد
+
+726
+00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:55,360
+فيها مثلا، بدنا نفكر في هالطريقة، اذا the simplest
+
+727
+00:49:55,360 --> 00:50:00,430
+way is to put a targetو في ناس كتير يعني انا
+
+728
+00:50:00,430 --> 00:50:02,770
+بعرفهم انه بيحطوا target كل أربع أو خمس سنين
+
+729
+00:50:02,770 --> 00:50:05,550
+بيحطوله long term targets يعني مثلا هالخمس سنين
+
+730
+00:50:05,550 --> 00:50:09,470
+فيه سيارة مثلا، الخمس سنين بعديها في بيت، الخمس
+
+731
+00:50:09,470 --> 00:50:13,030
+سنين أو بيت من المنطقة أخرى، الخمس سنين بعديهم
+
+732
+00:50:13,030 --> 00:50:16,550
+مثلا كذا، في ناس بيشتغلوا مثلا بال .. بال ..
+
+733
+00:50:16,550 --> 00:50:23,200
+بالسنة okay؟ بالسنة إيه إيش ممكن يسوي هو؟طيب
+
+734
+00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:27,260
+inflation risk على long term investors في احنا في
+
+735
+00:50:27,260 --> 00:50:30,300
+مشكلة في ال investment فيصير inflation كيف احنا
+
+736
+00:50:30,300 --> 00:50:35,200
+نختار instruments to fight against inflation؟ يعني
+
+737
+00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:40,900
+نختار instruments أدوات مالية ضد ال inflation TIBS
+
+738
+00:50:40,900 --> 00:50:46,000
+are helpful trades against inflation يعني هي trade
+
+739
+00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:49,580
+against inflationare helpful but not really risk
+
+740
+00:50:49,580 --> 00:50:52,760
+free يعني احنا في عندنا بعض الأدوات الاستثمارية
+
+741
+00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:57,500
+كويسة بتشتغل مع الinflation يعني مثلا الدهب كل ما
+
+742
+00:50:57,500 --> 00:51:01,240
+بيزيد الinflation سعر الدهب بيرتفع ال oil النفط كل
+
+743
+00:51:01,240 --> 00:51:05,420
+ما بيزيد الinflation ال oil بيزيد فبندور على ال
+
+744
+00:51:05,420 --> 00:51:08,500
+areas هذه اللي بتساعدنا to fight again market
+
+745
+00:51:08,500 --> 00:51:12,800
+value can fluctuate بس بال short term بال short
+
+746
+00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:14,340
+term انه في عند me fluctuation
+
+747
+00:51:16,820 --> 00:51:19,720
+get afraid ما تخافوش كتير خاصة بال long term
+
+748
+00:51:19,720 --> 00:51:24,560
+investment في الاستثمارات طويلة الأجر ال short
+
+749
+00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:27,920
+term fluctuation is not influence on the long term
+
+750
+00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:32,380
+impact ما بتأثرش كتير على ال long term كيف
+
+751
+00:51:32,380 --> 00:51:39,180
+fluctuate تذبذب يعني كل يوم الأسعار بتذبذب صح لكن
+
+752
+00:51:39,180 --> 00:51:44,340
+بالأخير أنه في الأسعار بتطلعreinvestment rate risk
+
+753
+00:51:44,340 --> 00:51:50,320
+يعني إعادة الاستثمار يعني الأرباح اللي إحنا بنحصل
+
+754
+00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:55,400
+عليها يا إما إحنا بنروح نصرفها يا إما بنروح نعملها
+
+755
+00:51:55,400 --> 00:52:03,740
+reinvestment ف we should think on this هك
+
+756
+00:52:03,740 --> 00:52:04,400
+وكون خلصنا
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/iRmUeYH3Y2Q_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/iRmUeYH3Y2Q_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4f8a8d2f62633ead78d43e020bf0c9fcf25d4aad
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/iRmUeYH3Y2Q_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,3000 @@
+1
+00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:25,040
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اليوم زي ما احنا حكينا
+
+2
+00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:30,420
+معاكم المرة الفاتة انه كيف تكتبوا ال .. ال
+
+3
+00:00:30,420 --> 00:00:34,880
+assignments الواجب تبعكم فحنركز اليوم writing up
+
+4
+00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,600
+your university assignments كيف نكتب ال .. ال
+
+5
+00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:43,660
+university assignments تبعناها اه لأنه ال .. لما
+
+6
+00:00:43,660 --> 00:00:48,610
+احنا نعمل الواجب تبعناهاال .. ال .. ال reader يعني
+
+7
+00:00:48,610 --> 00:00:52,530
+ال .. الأستاذ تبعكم بده يقرأ ال .. ال .. الواجبات
+
+8
+00:00:52,530 --> 00:00:57,390
+ف هو he or she cannot put in the .. in the shelf
+
+9
+00:00:57,390 --> 00:01:03,260
+unless he is reading your workفهو لازم يقرأ ال ..
+
+10
+00:01:03,260 --> 00:01:08,700
+الشغل تبعكم فعشان احنا ناخد علامات منيحة في ال
+
+11
+00:01:08,700 --> 00:01:13,100
+assignment okay في .. we have to follow the
+
+12
+00:01:13,100 --> 00:01:16,920
+quality of assignments how to write the assignment
+
+13
+00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:23,800
+so I .. includes two main textbook how to write
+
+14
+00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,700
+the assignment هذا أول textbook زي ما أنتوا
+
+15
+00:01:26,700 --> 00:01:30,740
+شايفينه writing up your university assignmentOkay
+
+16
+00:01:30,740 --> 00:01:37,680
+هذا textbook is important مهم كتير بالشرط لل .. لل
+
+17
+00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,000
+investments هذا لأي إشي ممكن ت .. بكرا ما تعملوا
+
+18
+00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:47,180
+ال .. بحث التخرج مثلا بتكون بتعملوا مثلا لما
+
+19
+00:01:47,180 --> 00:01:49,940
+تطلعوا على شغلكم مثلا تروحوا تشتغلوا في مؤسسات how
+
+20
+00:01:49,940 --> 00:01:55,080
+to write a report كيف نكتب تقرير فكتير كويس ان
+
+21
+00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,700
+انتوا تاخدوا هذا ال .. هذا الكتاب و خاصة ان هذا
+
+22
+00:01:58,700 --> 00:02:08,180
+الكتاب يعنيموجود و يدرس في يعني في جامعات يعني
+
+23
+00:02:08,180 --> 00:02:11,400
+أخدت high quality في ال .. في ال writing okay
+
+24
+00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:15,480
+هناخد بس يعني مختصر عشان ايش الكتاب هذا يعني ايش
+
+25
+00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,880
+بيحكي قبل ما احنا ندخل في تفاصيل المحاضرة تبعتنا
+
+26
+00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:23,840
+اليوم طبعا بيحكي the fundamental of academic
+
+27
+00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:32,140
+writingأساسيات في ال academic writing okay بدنا ..
+
+28
+00:02:32,140 --> 00:02:35,280
+قبل ما نبدأ ال assignments أولا بدنا نعرف what is
+
+29
+00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,540
+the assignment about؟ إيش هو؟ عن إيش بيحكي ال
+
+30
+00:02:38,540 --> 00:02:40,580
+assignments؟ هل أنتوا بتعملوا analysis بال
+
+31
+00:02:40,580 --> 00:02:44,620
+assignments؟ ولا أنتوا just explain ideas؟ ولا
+
+32
+00:02:44,620 --> 00:02:49,760
+أنتوا بتحطوا ideas؟ هل هو descriptive؟ يعني وصفي؟
+
+33
+00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:55,570
+توصفوا شغلة معينة؟ you are exploratory؟بتكتشفوا
+
+34
+00:02:55,570 --> 00:03:01,090
+شغلة معينة أو بتركزوا على مواضيع معينة ف .. بدنا
+
+35
+00:03:01,090 --> 00:03:04,210
+نعرف why we are using academic writing؟ ليش احنا
+
+36
+00:03:04,210 --> 00:03:08,150
+بنستخدم ال academic writing؟ يعني التقارير
+
+37
+00:03:08,150 --> 00:03:12,690
+الأكاديمية و الدراسات الأكاديمية، تمام؟ تاني شغلة
+
+38
+00:03:12,690 --> 00:03:17,870
+how should I structure my writing؟ كيف أنا أرتب ال
+
+39
+00:03:17,870 --> 00:03:21,870
+.. ال writing تبعي؟ أهم إشي في ال writing يكون في
+
+40
+00:03:21,870 --> 00:03:25,980
+عندي شغلة اسمها coherencecoherence إيش معناه
+
+41
+00:03:25,980 --> 00:03:29,780
+coherence تماسك يعني من أول الموضوع لآخر الموضوع
+
+42
+00:03:29,780 --> 00:03:35,720
+كله فيه ترابط يعني إحنا لو جينا مثلا هان عادة
+
+43
+00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:40,260
+بيكون في عنا the main idea بتاعة ال assignment هاي
+
+44
+00:03:40,260 --> 00:03:46,780
+ال main idea بعدين في ideas أخرى مرتبطة في ال main
+
+45
+00:03:46,780 --> 00:03:51,500
+ideas إحنا بتبدأ نتوسع في هذه ال ideasزي ما إنتوا
+
+46
+00:03:51,500 --> 00:03:57,100
+شايفين ف every part of the ideas is connected with
+
+47
+00:03:57,100 --> 00:04:02,340
+the main ideas كل جزء من ال .. ال .. الأفكار
+
+48
+00:04:02,340 --> 00:04:05,520
+الفرعية مرتبط بالفكرة الرئيسية فهذا بيسموه
+
+49
+00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:08,860
+coherence يكون في عنده ترابط يعني مثلا لما أنا
+
+50
+00:04:08,860 --> 00:04:12,860
+بحكي عن behavioral finance هو واحد من ال ..
+
+51
+00:04:12,860 --> 00:04:17,830
+الأسئلة اللي مطلوبة منكم behavioral financeفي ال
+
+52
+00:04:17,830 --> 00:04:21,790
+main idea I should define what is the .. the ..
+
+53
+00:04:21,790 --> 00:04:24,550
+the idea of behavioral finance شو هي behavioral
+
+54
+00:04:24,550 --> 00:04:28,910
+finance تمام؟ و all of these ideas are linked with
+
+55
+00:04:28,910 --> 00:04:34,870
+the main idea تمام؟ الكل بيكون مرتبط بال .. بال
+
+56
+00:04:34,870 --> 00:04:37,910
+main idea for instance the .. the behavioral
+
+57
+00:04:37,910 --> 00:04:44,990
+finance is considered the market is not efficient
+
+58
+00:04:44,990 --> 00:04:50,690
+for instanceOkay and you discuss this concept و
+
+59
+00:04:50,690 --> 00:04:55,090
+احنا بتبدأ نقش هذا ال concept within the other
+
+60
+00:04:55,090 --> 00:05:00,830
+ideas your eyes focusing on the main ideas and the
+
+61
+00:05:00,830 --> 00:05:04,150
+secondary ideas are related to the main idea يعني
+
+62
+00:05:04,150 --> 00:05:07,690
+بتكون الفكرة الفرعية مرتبطة بالفكرة الرئيسية هذا
+
+63
+00:05:07,690 --> 00:05:12,550
+بيسموه coherence بيسمي ايش? coherence تلعبت في بعض
+
+64
+00:05:12,550 --> 00:05:16,190
+الطلاب لما شوفنا ال assignments تبعتهم بيحكي
+
+65
+00:05:16,190 --> 00:05:19,710
+بموضوعو بعدين بنتخلع موضوع تاني و بعدين بنتخلع
+
+66
+00:05:19,710 --> 00:05:23,930
+موضوع تالت and so on مافيش .. لما نقرأ .. you are
+
+67
+00:05:23,930 --> 00:05:26,810
+like .. when you are reading your assignments you
+
+68
+00:05:26,810 --> 00:05:31,190
+are like narrating a story زي ما احنا بنحكي قصة
+
+69
+00:05:31,190 --> 00:05:34,730
+it's .. it has introduction, main body and the
+
+70
+00:05:34,730 --> 00:05:38,930
+conclusion if you mislead the reader in .. in your
+
+71
+00:05:38,930 --> 00:05:43,150
+writing style it means you don't have efficient
+
+72
+00:05:43,150 --> 00:05:46,800
+academic writingيعني إذا انتوا you are misleading
+
+73
+00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:51,880
+the .. the reader يعني .. يعني مابتواجهوش ال
+
+74
+00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:54,840
+reader صح معناه كلمة you mislead the reader
+
+75
+00:05:54,840 --> 00:05:59,220
+بالاخير مافيش quality مافيش efficiency so there is
+
+76
+00:05:59,220 --> 00:06:03,360
+no need for your reward يعني هلا مثلا لما بنروح
+
+77
+00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,600
+احنا نكتب reward about .. يعني و احنا صغار كانوا
+
+78
+00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:09,680
+يدرسونا أنه نكتب تقرير على أنه رحلة إلى البحر
+
+79
+00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:15,880
+بينفعش نروح والله اتغذينا في البحر و روحناSo it's
+
+80
+00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:19,640
+from the beginning starting the idea أنه رحلة إلى
+
+81
+00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:24,280
+البحر تمام و نبدأ ندخل فيه بعد ما فكرة الرحلة و
+
+82
+00:06:24,280 --> 00:06:27,300
+بعدين ندخل في التفاصيل و ال conclusion تماما طيب
+
+83
+00:06:27,300 --> 00:06:32,160
+فهذه أول .. أول chapter بحكي the .. the functions
+
+84
+00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:37,400
+of .. ثاني chapter هو ال structure بتاعة
+
+85
+00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:41,440
+ال thesis أو بتاعة ال academic writing حكينا على
+
+86
+00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:47,380
+ال coherence التماسكيعني كل جزء كبير بتماسك بال ..
+
+87
+00:06:47,380 --> 00:06:49,900
+بالجزء الكبير، يعني مثلا خلينا نحكي رحلة إلى
+
+88
+00:06:49,900 --> 00:06:55,440
+البحر، بنفعش مثلا في .. في رقم .. في فكرة من
+
+89
+00:06:55,440 --> 00:07:00,700
+الأفكار هان موجود و الله و اتفرجنا على فيلم و كان
+
+90
+00:07:00,700 --> 00:07:04,640
+كتير ممتع، طبعا هذا .. هذا مش في البحر صارis not
+
+91
+00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,060
+related. So why you are include this? Because some
+
+92
+00:07:08,060 --> 00:07:11,940
+people they want to stuff their writing. إيش
+
+93
+00:07:11,940 --> 00:07:17,080
+أستفف؟ يحشوا، في ناس بس بدهم يحشوا، بس بدهم يحكوا
+
+94
+00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:22,100
+أي إشي، و أنا أحكي أي إشي، we don't need this،
+
+95
+00:07:22,100 --> 00:07:27,040
+okay؟ يعني زي ما بيحكوا مقلة ودلدائما بيسألوا
+
+96
+00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,620
+بيقولوا لي ايش ال how many pages we can write
+
+97
+00:07:30,620 --> 00:07:36,520
+write as .. as much as you want اكتب جد ما بدك as
+
+98
+00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:41,340
+much as I understand جد ما انا افهم انه يعني you
+
+99
+00:07:41,340 --> 00:07:44,520
+conclude your ideas okay to the level that I
+
+100
+00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:48,260
+understand your writing فأول شي حكينا اذا ال
+
+101
+00:07:48,260 --> 00:07:53,360
+coherenceواضحة what it means coherence كله تماسك
+
+102
+00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,800
+okay يعني احنا بنحكي مثلا على ال .. the mechanisms
+
+103
+00:07:56,800 --> 00:08:01,420
+of .. of palestinian stock exchange or the trading
+
+104
+00:08:01,420 --> 00:08:03,560
+mechanisms in palestinian .. palestine stock
+
+105
+00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:07,740
+exchange يعني احنا بنحكي عن آلية التداول في سوق
+
+106
+00:08:07,740 --> 00:08:11,960
+فلسطين أوراق المالية okay the main idea is the
+
+107
+00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:16,140
+trading mechanisms you
+
+108
+00:08:16,140 --> 00:08:20,660
+are talking about trading mechanismsOkay so the
+
+109
+00:08:20,660 --> 00:08:23,500
+first question or I think this is the third
+
+110
+00:08:23,500 --> 00:08:26,380
+question in your assignment explain the trading
+
+111
+00:08:26,380 --> 00:08:31,260
+mechanisms and the market participants in your in
+
+112
+00:08:31,260 --> 00:08:34,660
+Palestine Stock Exchange So this assignment
+
+113
+00:08:34,660 --> 00:08:37,580
+includes two main ideas هذا بيشتمل two main ideas
+
+114
+00:08:37,580 --> 00:08:41,500
+the first one is the trading mechanisms okay the
+
+115
+00:08:41,500 --> 00:08:45,060
+second one is the market participants يعني trading
+
+116
+00:08:45,060 --> 00:08:49,950
+mechanisms يعني ألية التداول في وسوقو ال .. و ال
+
+117
+00:08:49,950 --> 00:08:54,050
+second idea is talking about the market
+
+118
+00:08:54,050 --> 00:08:57,770
+participants فلو أجينا احنا ال ideas هان هنقسمها
+
+119
+00:08:57,770 --> 00:09:02,090
+في اسمين هيكون القسم الأول trading mechanisms we
+
+120
+00:09:02,090 --> 00:09:04,750
+are talking about trading mechanisms and related
+
+121
+00:09:04,750 --> 00:09:07,950
+ideas و بعدين القسم التاني في عندنا second main
+
+122
+00:09:07,950 --> 00:09:11,610
+idea talking about market participants market
+
+123
+00:09:11,610 --> 00:09:16,040
+participantsخلينا نركز بس على هذا السؤال و نشوف
+
+124
+00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,740
+how we can deal with this question كيف ممكن احنا
+
+125
+00:09:18,740 --> 00:09:22,840
+نعالج هذا السؤال طيب ما زلنا نحكي عن ال structure
+
+126
+00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,320
+the structure of your academic writing حكينا عن ال
+
+127
+00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:28,880
+coherence الشغل التاني بال structure you have to
+
+128
+00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:33,840
+be careful with the referencing لازم تاخد بالك من
+
+129
+00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:38,900
+ال references avoid plagiarism what it means
+
+130
+00:09:38,900 --> 00:09:41,460
+plagiarism? plagiarism
+
+131
+00:09:45,140 --> 00:09:47,260
+plagiarism means أنه to copy and paste from
+
+132
+00:09:47,260 --> 00:09:49,640
+others, you claim this is your work and this is
+
+133
+00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:52,600
+not your work يعني أنت بتقول إن هذا شغلك و في
+
+134
+00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:58,260
+الواقع هذا مش شغلك, try to avoid plagiarism, here
+
+135
+00:09:58,260 --> 00:10:05,080
+the internet has a huge articles and you can get
+
+136
+00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:08,590
+benefit of themwe don't mind to use them يعني ال
+
+137
+00:10:08,590 --> 00:10:11,570
+internet متوفر فيه كتير من المقالات العلمية والكذا
+
+138
+00:10:11,570 --> 00:10:16,970
+ال student عادة إيش بيسويهوا الطلاب و بيروحوا
+
+139
+00:10:16,970 --> 00:10:19,910
+بيسويوا كما لو كانوا بتسألوا إيش بيحكي الأستاذ
+
+140
+00:10:19,910 --> 00:10:21,650
+مثلا على behavioral finance okay this is
+
+141
+00:10:21,650 --> 00:10:27,430
+behavioral finance behavioral
+
+142
+00:10:27,430 --> 00:10:31,710
+finance tick okay وشوفولهم أي إشي ب behavioral
+
+143
+00:10:31,710 --> 00:10:35,960
+financeأه بيعملوا copy و paste and this is the
+
+144
+00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:43,740
+assignment طبعا يعني خلينا نشوف اه ونيح
+
+145
+00:10:43,740 --> 00:10:51,460
+إذا بترجمه يكون كويس okay مثلا هاي
+
+146
+00:10:51,460 --> 00:10:54,020
+أه
+
+147
+00:11:02,260 --> 00:11:07,140
+Okay يعني شوفوا إيش بيصير هاي هدول البنات مثلا
+
+148
+00:11:07,140 --> 00:11:10,320
+شوفوا إيش راح يسوي أو الشباب يعني هياخدوا هذا ال
+
+149
+00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:12,840
+behavioral finance و هذا is يعني هذا الكلام اللي
+
+150
+00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:16,420
+شوفته يعني و ال .. الشباب و البنات اللي أنا كنت
+
+151
+00:11:16,420 --> 00:11:18,660
+أصلحهم ال assignment بتاعهم you know they know
+
+152
+00:11:18,660 --> 00:11:22,700
+this بعرفوا الكلام هذا because I have a particular
+
+153
+00:11:22,700 --> 00:11:27,040
+software في عندنا software can easily address from
+
+154
+00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:30,040
+where you get your assignmentيعني في عندنا
+
+155
+00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:32,900
+software بيقدر بسهولة انه يعرف من وين انتوا جايبين
+
+156
+00:11:32,900 --> 00:11:36,640
+ال assignments بتاعتكم so and and the reader the
+
+157
+00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:39,740
+reader as well has a good experience to know from
+
+158
+00:11:39,740 --> 00:11:45,380
+where you get your assignments شوفوا باشا فاللي
+
+159
+00:11:45,380 --> 00:11:50,620
+صار انه هدول هاي أخدنا copy and paste هو خلصنا طيب
+
+160
+00:11:50,620 --> 00:11:54,500
+انا سهل جدا انه انا اقدر اعرف من وين جبتوا الكلام
+
+161
+00:11:54,500 --> 00:12:00,380
+هذامجرد ما انا في بعض ال documents مجرد ما احط
+
+162
+00:12:00,380 --> 00:12:03,420
+اشارة على ال .. هذا بيمكن يجيبلي ال link ع طول
+
+163
+00:12:03,420 --> 00:12:09,780
+okay ال hyperlink بيجيبلي ال hyperlink from where
+
+164
+00:12:09,780 --> 00:12:13,910
+you get your assignments okayيعني إذا كان عندى وقت
+
+165
+00:12:13,910 --> 00:12:16,810
+بشوف ب .. ب .. بارجيكوا كيف ال .. الاشي ممكن يصير
+
+166
+00:12:16,810 --> 00:12:21,990
+ف .. so be .. be careful فهو راحوا .. راح .. راح
+
+167
+00:12:21,990 --> 00:12:26,210
+.. أخدنا copy و بس فاللا بنروح كمان .. كمان إيش؟
+
+168
+00:12:26,210 --> 00:12:31,410
+هيساو .. هنروح .. okay أخدنا هذا الكلام ماقرأنهوش
+
+169
+00:12:31,410 --> 00:12:34,610
+أكيد ماقرأنهوش لأن just we want to rush our
+
+170
+00:12:34,610 --> 00:12:37,830
+assignment you know what rush our assignment يعني
+
+171
+00:12:37,830 --> 00:12:40,550
+بس بدنا نمشي و نقول للأستاذ تبعنا اتفضل هى ال
+
+172
+00:12:40,550 --> 00:12:46,220
+assignment تبعناthat's it okay فما قرأنا هوش روحنا
+
+173
+00:12:46,220 --> 00:12:50,640
+كمان حكينا على ال .. ال .. شوفنا كمان موضوع ال
+
+174
+00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:55,140
+behavioral finance okay و خلصنا ال site الأول و
+
+175
+00:12:55,140 --> 00:13:01,200
+روحنا على ال site التاني okay هذا هو فروحنا نفس
+
+176
+00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:06,060
+الشغل هيك هذا .. هذا فعلا انا وجدته عند ال .. و
+
+177
+00:13:06,060 --> 00:13:10,200
+انا في التصطيح يعني فروحنا عشان سوينا برضه نفس
+
+178
+00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:15,140
+الفيلم هيك طلعوافهذا there is no coherence هذا
+
+179
+00:13:15,140 --> 00:13:19,160
+مافيش فيه coherence مافيش فيه ترابط فعارفين زي إيش
+
+180
+00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:24,900
+عاملين زي الطبيخ الشحاتين بالظبط عارفين بروح بشحت
+
+181
+00:13:24,900 --> 00:13:29,760
+بياخد هذي خبزة هذي كذا هذي كذا بالاخير لما بروح
+
+182
+00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:32,860
+البيت بلاقي كل إشي موجود عنده لكن he or she
+
+183
+00:13:32,860 --> 00:13:37,200
+doesn't know how to mix between themبالاخير شغلات
+
+184
+00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:41,040
+مالهاش معنا بكل مكان و مش م .. يعني ممكن ال sweets
+
+185
+00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:46,860
+يكون مع الملوخية و ال .. أه بيمشي الحل فطبعا هذا
+
+186
+00:13:46,860 --> 00:13:51,140
+كمان نفس الشيء أنه إحنا بنقدر نعرف ال .. الكلام
+
+187
+00:13:51,140 --> 00:13:58,700
+هذا، تمام؟ فإحنا ال .. في ال website في هدول ال ..
+
+188
+00:13:58,700 --> 00:14:01,100
+ال .. ال internet إحنا ما بنعدد استخدام ال
+
+189
+00:14:01,100 --> 00:14:05,470
+internet بس في أصول استخدام ال netطيب، إيش هي
+
+190
+00:14:05,470 --> 00:14:07,990
+المصادر الموثوقة عشان أنا أحصل عليها المعلومات؟
+
+191
+00:14:07,990 --> 00:14:11,090
+هاي المعلومات اللي موجودة في ال net أي واحد بحط أي
+
+192
+00:14:11,090 --> 00:14:15,490
+إشي وبالتالي ممكن تكون is not according to the
+
+193
+00:14:15,490 --> 00:14:19,150
+academic style فإيش هي ال website اللي إحنا بنعتمد
+
+194
+00:14:19,150 --> 00:14:23,050
+عليها؟ مثلا أول إيش عندنا اللي هو ال science
+
+195
+00:14:23,050 --> 00:14:29,850
+direct science direct www.sciencedirect
+
+196
+00:14:29,850 --> 00:14:30,990
+.com
+
+197
+00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:39,040
+Okay ال science .. ال science direct هذه هي
+
+198
+00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:44,820
+شايفينها أنتم أمامكم هذه يعني
+
+199
+00:14:44,820 --> 00:14:50,260
+credible و فيها articles articles يعني مقالات
+
+200
+00:14:50,260 --> 00:14:53,760
+علمية محكمة و فيها نتائج محكمة لو احنا كتبنا مثلا
+
+201
+00:14:53,760 --> 00:15:00,300
+على ال behavioral finance هيجيبنا
+
+202
+00:15:00,300 --> 00:15:03,900
+بال behavioral finance مثلا thousands of articles
+
+203
+00:15:05,020 --> 00:15:10,380
+شوفوا انتوا هنا عندكم articles فى إشي منه purchase
+
+204
+00:15:10,380 --> 00:15:15,600
+و فى منه free okay يعني مثلا هى شوفوا هذا كتير
+
+205
+00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,660
+مثلا behavioral finance and asset prices هى مقالة
+
+206
+00:15:18,660 --> 00:15:23,600
+علمية و is free okay يالا و احنا عملنا click عليها
+
+207
+00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:29,580
+هناخدها عشان احنا انتوا ماعندكوا مش هال experience
+
+208
+00:15:29,580 --> 00:15:33,400
+العالى جدا فى انه how to to get ممكن مقالة واحدة
+
+209
+00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:37,070
+تطلع للمقالات كتيربنشوف احنا هاي behavioral
+
+210
+00:15:37,070 --> 00:15:42,470
+finance ده بدناش نعملكوا ال best هاي هم بيحفوا على
+
+211
+00:15:42,470 --> 00:15:46,530
+ال behavioral finance و هذا لما بال utility امبارح
+
+212
+00:15:46,530 --> 00:15:49,690
+لطلبة الدراسات اللي احنا شرحنا موضوع ال utility
+
+213
+00:15:49,690 --> 00:15:54,150
+هذا ال utility تمام مش شرط انتوا تفهموا كل شي
+
+214
+00:15:54,150 --> 00:15:58,490
+موجود بال .. ايش تقرأوا في المقارن العلمية نقرأ ال
+
+215
+00:15:58,490 --> 00:16:02,720
+introduction و ال conclusion بسشوفوا هال .. هنرتب
+
+216
+00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,200
+ال idea ال introduction و ال conclusion هم
+
+217
+00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:07,700
+بيساعدوكوا ان انتوا تفهموا هل المقالة بتعنيكوا ولا
+
+218
+00:16:07,700 --> 00:16:12,840
+بتعنيكو مش هلأ اي مقالة علمية محكمة any academic
+
+219
+00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:18,540
+writing okay any article بيكون فيه معتمدة على
+
+220
+00:16:18,540 --> 00:16:22,400
+references فانت you don't need to waste your time
+
+221
+00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:25,440
+in looking for the references because the
+
+222
+00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:29,380
+references are already in the articleيعني بترجعوا
+
+223
+00:16:29,380 --> 00:16:31,560
+هنا على ال references بتروح على ال references
+
+224
+00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:38,640
+بتعرفوا هذا المقالة عايش انبنت منروح نرجع هنا على
+
+225
+00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:44,600
+ال references هاي كل ال references موجودة مستحيل
+
+226
+00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,660
+انه تنتشر مقالة علمية بال science direct خدوا
+
+227
+00:16:47,660 --> 00:16:52,160
+بالكم هذا بهذا الموقع الموقع هذا مستحيل تنتشر اي
+
+228
+00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:58,980
+مقالة علمية الا تكون professional oneكل فكرة بتنحط
+
+229
+00:16:58,980 --> 00:17:04,500
+ببساطة من أين أنت جبت الفكرة هاي، تمام؟ فروحنا
+
+230
+00:17:04,500 --> 00:17:06,460
+شايفين أنتوا ال references، لو أنا أنزل ال video
+
+231
+00:17:06,460 --> 00:17:09,340
+app تشوفوها، يعني لو أخدنا نظرة على ال .. على ال
+
+232
+00:17:09,340 --> 00:17:09,660
+..
+
+233
+00:17:43,540 --> 00:17:49,640
+Okay طبعا هذا واحد من ال .. واحد من ال .. قبل ما
+
+234
+00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:54,840
+ينزل ال website هنشوف إيش ال references اللي
+
+235
+00:17:54,840 --> 00:18:00,040
+متوفرة لو أخدنا هيك نظرة بسيطة على ال references
+
+236
+00:18:03,980 --> 00:18:11,500
+اكتبوا الموقع هذا الو science direct خلينا
+
+237
+00:18:11,500 --> 00:18:15,600
+نشوف ..
+
+238
+00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:20,820
+نشوف ال references ناخد نظرة على ال references
+
+239
+00:18:20,820 --> 00:18:25,180
+هدول و بنشوف مين ال references اللي فيها direct
+
+240
+00:18:25,180 --> 00:18:27,720
+بتحكي عن behavioral finance ممكن مش كل ال
+
+241
+00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,830
+references بتنزمنابس هيك يعني I think you just
+
+242
+00:18:30,830 --> 00:18:33,110
+need five minutes to look at the references اقرؤه
+
+243
+00:18:33,110 --> 00:18:35,810
+العناوين مثلا ليجي اول واحد بيحكي American
+
+244
+00:18:35,810 --> 00:18:38,810
+econometric او بيسموه okay an exploration of the
+
+245
+00:18:38,810 --> 00:18:42,930
+effect of business okay مابلزمنهاش التاني
+
+246
+00:18:42,930 --> 00:18:47,950
+مابلزمنهاش هيك بتكون تحكواa simple model of هذا ال
+
+247
+00:18:47,950 --> 00:18:51,390
+behavior هذا مهم مثلا هذا a simple .. hard
+
+248
+00:18:51,390 --> 00:18:55,790
+behavior هذا بال .. بال ال behavioral finance hard
+
+249
+00:18:55,790 --> 00:18:59,530
+behavior ان المستثمرين لما واحد بشتري بتلاقي الكل
+
+250
+00:18:59,530 --> 00:19:03,830
+اللي بشتري معاه هذا بيسموه سياسة القطيع اه سياسة
+
+251
+00:19:03,830 --> 00:19:08,470
+القطيع فهي هذا مقال حلو كتير فبروحاش ممكن ناخده
+
+252
+00:19:08,470 --> 00:19:11,750
+okay بنعمل عليه clickأو تكتبيه على هيك على دفتر و
+
+253
+00:19:11,750 --> 00:19:14,290
+.. شوفوا احنا من مقال واحد هنكتب ال assignment
+
+254
+00:19:14,290 --> 00:19:18,710
+سبعنا كله مقالة واحدة بس وهي هتساعدنا ان نجيب كل
+
+255
+00:19:18,710 --> 00:19:24,190
+المقالات المرتبطة فيهايعني لو وجدنا مثلا واحد بروح
+
+256
+00:19:24,190 --> 00:19:27,890
+ناخد هيك نطلع كمان هو barbari's etal prospect
+
+257
+00:19:27,890 --> 00:19:32,970
+theory and asset price هذا is important a model of
+
+258
+00:19:32,970 --> 00:19:36,430
+the investment sentiment investment sentiment يعني
+
+259
+00:19:36,430 --> 00:19:40,150
+معناها ال investor behavior هذا is important فممكن
+
+260
+00:19:40,150 --> 00:19:44,870
+نحطه هاي صار عندى three articles تلات مقالاتبتبقى
+
+261
+00:19:44,870 --> 00:19:49,170
+لنا كمان ندور قبل أن .. على الأقل هنجدلنا تلت أربع
+
+262
+00:19:49,170 --> 00:19:54,010
+مقالات تمام؟ مثلا هاي the value of information
+
+263
+00:19:54,010 --> 00:19:57,510
+when preferences are dynamics inconsistent فكده
+
+264
+00:19:57,510 --> 00:19:59,870
+لما حكينا أنه احنا ال behavioral finance تعتمد على
+
+265
+00:19:59,870 --> 00:20:04,010
+ال public information فهي هاي مقال بحكي عن ال
+
+266
+00:20:04,010 --> 00:20:11,770
+information و هكذاطبعا فهذا مقال .. مقال واحد بس
+
+267
+00:20:11,770 --> 00:20:15,250
+حكينا في ال .. او تلت اربع مقالات طلعناهم بس من
+
+268
+00:20:15,250 --> 00:20:18,130
+مقال واحد من behavioral finance هاي مثلا market
+
+269
+00:20:18,130 --> 00:20:20,490
+efficiency فاكرين لما احنا حكينا market efficiency
+
+270
+00:20:20,490 --> 00:20:25,530
+هذا اهم شوفوا فاهمة لما .. فا .. يجين فاهمة هذا
+
+271
+00:20:25,530 --> 00:20:28,730
+اهم واحد كتب بال .. بال behavioral finance يعني
+
+272
+00:20:28,730 --> 00:20:31,370
+هاي market efficiency فاكرين لما احنا تناقض market
+
+273
+00:20:31,370 --> 00:20:33,770
+efficiency و ال long term returns و ال behavioral
+
+274
+00:20:33,770 --> 00:20:39,330
+finance هذا this isD'accord هذا الأساس أي واحد لما
+
+275
+00:20:39,330 --> 00:20:43,190
+أنا بقى أصلح ال assignments سبعكم إذا ما لاجيتش
+
+276
+00:20:43,190 --> 00:20:48,470
+أجين و فامة .. أجين فامة بقول إنه مش .. مش كتير ال
+
+277
+00:20:48,470 --> 00:20:53,250
+.. ال assignments تمام؟ مش .. مش كتير ال
+
+278
+00:20:53,250 --> 00:20:57,730
+assignments ففي key .. key article .. key people
+
+279
+00:20:57,730 --> 00:21:03,860
+لازم نعرفهم لما إحنا نحكي في أي موضوعأه بأي موضوع
+
+280
+00:21:03,860 --> 00:21:07,920
+يعني مثلا أنتوا بتحكوا عن الإسلام مثلا حكينا كتير
+
+281
+00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,180
+و هذا و ماذاكرناش الرسول صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+282
+00:21:10,180 --> 00:21:13,800
+مابنفع؟ و إيش الفادة يعني أنتوا بتحكوا عن الإسلام
+
+283
+00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:19,400
+و المظبوط ولا لأ؟ أو حكينا مثلا أهمية الصيام ولا
+
+284
+00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:22,980
+جيبنا آية كريمة ولا جيبنا قرآن كريم ولا جيبنا حديث
+
+285
+00:21:22,980 --> 00:21:27,940
+ولا جيبنا أي شيء ف .. فاحنا بنيجي في المقالات
+
+286
+00:21:27,940 --> 00:21:32,470
+العلميةلما نيجي نحكي عن ال behavioral finance مثلا
+
+287
+00:21:32,470 --> 00:21:39,410
+أهم ناس اللي هو أوجينه فامع فامع فامع أهم واحد كتب
+
+288
+00:21:39,410 --> 00:21:45,030
+بال behavioral finance فبدنا احنا لازم نعرف ال key
+
+289
+00:21:45,030 --> 00:21:45,410
+people
+
+290
+00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:52,880
+من هم الأشخاص الرئيسيين طبعا كيف ممكن احنا نعرف ال
+
+291
+00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:57,040
+key people هذول هاي سهلة جدا يعني لو احنا أخدنا
+
+292
+00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:04,140
+المقال سبع FAMA market
+
+293
+00:22:04,140 --> 00:22:12,360
+efficiency
+
+294
+00:22:12,360 --> 00:22:17,470
+فهو اهم واحد بيحكي عن ما هو market efficiencyحكينا
+
+295
+00:22:17,470 --> 00:22:21,710
+أولا science direct سجلته شغل تاني أنه احنا ممكن
+
+296
+00:22:21,710 --> 00:22:24,630
+نعتمد عليها ال google schooler ال google ايش
+
+297
+00:22:24,630 --> 00:22:28,470
+schooler مش ال google العادي لأن ال google
+
+298
+00:22:28,470 --> 00:22:31,530
+schooler هو بس بحط المقالات العلمية محطش الربش
+
+299
+00:22:31,530 --> 00:22:38,190
+okay طبعا
+
+300
+00:22:38,190 --> 00:22:42,090
+كيف احنا بنسأل ال google scholar تروحوا scholar ا
+
+301
+00:22:42,090 --> 00:22:47,830
+وتحطوا scholar هيك و تروحوا googleوهنا وصلنا ل
+
+302
+00:22:47,830 --> 00:22:57,850
+جوجل مثلا بدنا موضوع بال behavioral finance ايوة
+
+303
+00:22:57,850 --> 00:23:01,810
+اتطلعوني بالله انا كيف .. كيف بد اعرف انا ان هذا
+
+304
+00:23:01,810 --> 00:23:08,130
+مقال مهم ولا مش مهم؟ مين بعرف؟ اول واحد كيف .. كيف
+
+305
+00:23:08,130 --> 00:23:10,830
+باعرف؟ مش شرط تكون اول واحد okay صح كرامك اول واحد
+
+306
+00:23:10,830 --> 00:23:15,870
+بس في شغل اهم من اول واحديعني انا مثلا اخدت فاكرين
+
+307
+00:23:15,870 --> 00:23:19,930
+احنا اخدنا في ال .. اختارنا مقال من ال science
+
+308
+00:23:19,930 --> 00:23:25,460
+direct طلعنا عليهمو اخترنا اربع خمس مقالات بس بدي
+
+309
+00:23:25,460 --> 00:23:28,820
+انا اعرف مين اهم واحد فيهم بروح على google scholar
+
+310
+00:23:28,820 --> 00:23:33,500
+google scholar بساعدني كتير عشان اعرف مين المهم و
+
+311
+00:23:33,500 --> 00:23:37,080
+ممكن ال science direct كمان بيساعدني اتطلعوا في ال
+
+312
+00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,140
+science direct اتطلعوا على ال science direct
+
+313
+00:23:39,140 --> 00:23:45,840
+انتبهوا هنا ايش مكتوب هنا cited by 827 عملوا cite
+
+314
+00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:50,180
+127 127 okay ايش يعني cite يعني أكم واحد معتمد على
+
+315
+00:23:50,180 --> 00:23:54,870
+هذه الورقةماخد عليها 127 طب لو جينا لغير واحد
+
+316
+00:23:54,870 --> 00:24:00,110
+تسعين مش كتير طب ما 127 هذا أكتر واحد هذا اتناش مش
+
+317
+00:24:00,110 --> 00:24:04,850
+كتير هذا سبعة مش كتير اتناش اذا لحالنا هنعرف أن
+
+318
+00:24:04,850 --> 00:24:10,530
+أهم واحد هو هذا أكتر اعتماد أكتر اعتماد و
+
+319
+00:24:10,530 --> 00:24:15,270
+الأربعمية وين عندك أربعمية ها؟ وين؟800 ما حنا
+
+320
+00:24:15,270 --> 00:24:20,130
+حكينا فيه okay أخدناها على .. أخدناها على ال ..
+
+321
+00:24:20,130 --> 00:24:23,910
+على google scholar scholar هنا و أكم واحد عمله
+
+322
+00:24:23,910 --> 00:24:28,130
+citation 3448
+
+323
+00:24:28,130 --> 00:24:35,350
+يعني 3448 مقالة علمية اعتمدت على هذا المقالة و
+
+324
+00:24:35,350 --> 00:24:39,870
+حضرتنا احنا بدناش يعني ناخد منه حضرتنا يعني احنا
+
+325
+00:24:39,870 --> 00:24:44,220
+في ال assignment سبقناالأول نقطة اللى حكينا فيها
+
+326
+00:24:44,220 --> 00:24:46,980
+ال coherence التانى النقطة اللى بنحكي فيها ال
+
+327
+00:24:46,980 --> 00:24:49,240
+reference تبعتنا مين هي ال reference not any
+
+328
+00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:54,640
+reference و بتشوف شباب و بنات حاطين لش اسمه ال
+
+329
+00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:59,380
+link I don't need to see the link ال link مابديش
+
+330
+00:24:59,380 --> 00:25:05,920
+اشوف وجه ال link نهائي بدي اشوف لو كتاب اكتبين او
+
+331
+00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:09,160
+مقالة مقالتين بيكون بكفيني انا مالزمنيش اكتر من
+
+332
+00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:14,940
+هيك تمام؟طيب الو احنا أخدنا ال behavioral finance
+
+333
+00:25:14,940 --> 00:25:19,820
+هذا ال article
+
+334
+00:25:19,820 --> 00:25:23,680
+هاي
+
+335
+00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:31,680
+direct و ننزله عندنا و ننزله PDF و نقرأه هذا اللي
+
+336
+00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:36,440
+احنا ممكن نشترل عليه طب كيف احنا نعمل ال
+
+337
+00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:41,550
+reference؟ال reference كيف نعمله أنا جهزتلكم مقالة
+
+338
+00:25:41,550 --> 00:25:44,710
+علمية عاملة references في many styles to do
+
+339
+00:25:44,710 --> 00:25:49,510
+references كتير styles بتعمل references ال
+
+340
+00:25:49,510 --> 00:25:55,690
+references إذا كان في داخل المقال بختلف عن ما هو
+
+341
+00:25:55,690 --> 00:26:02,810
+في ال references فلو احنا طلعنا هنا على المقالة
+
+342
+00:26:02,810 --> 00:26:06,450
+هذه المكتوبة هتشوفوا
+
+343
+00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,860
+لو شوفنا ال document map ضروري ان تكون عندكوا
+
+344
+00:26:13,860 --> 00:26:17,020
+document map زى هذه انا هورجيكوا كيف ممكن نعملها
+
+345
+00:26:17,020 --> 00:26:21,540
+شايفين ال document map على الشمال okay هذه يعني
+
+346
+00:26:21,540 --> 00:26:25,200
+انا سهل جدا اروح access اروح اى موضوع فنروح على ال
+
+347
+00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:28,160
+references اذا موجودة عندنا هى ال references ال
+
+348
+00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,500
+references هى هذه موجودة في نهاية ال .. في نهاية
+
+349
+00:26:31,500 --> 00:26:38,180
+ال article هى مثلا اسم العابدي واحد اسمه عابدي و
+
+350
+00:26:38,180 --> 00:26:44,110
+hitch طبعا هذا style Harvardيعني بنكتب الاسم ال
+
+351
+00:26:44,110 --> 00:26:50,570
+family بعدين الحرف الأول من اسمه ممكن طبعا فى ناس
+
+352
+00:26:50,570 --> 00:26:55,070
+بكتبوا الاسم كامل أنا ماعنديش مشكلة بعدين زى ما
+
+353
+00:26:55,070 --> 00:27:02,650
+تشايفين السنة بعدين بنكتب اسم المقالة كاملة بعدين
+
+354
+00:27:02,650 --> 00:27:07,470
+من المكان النشر تبعها تمام؟ من وين ممكن نحصل
+
+355
+00:27:07,470 --> 00:27:13,010
+عليها؟ هى كمان واحد bandsاسم المقال الجورنال
+
+356
+00:27:13,010 --> 00:27:18,530
+انتشرت فيها ال issue و ال edition و ال pages تلاتة
+
+357
+00:27:18,530 --> 00:27:23,850
+لتمنتاش يعني هذه من تلاتة لتمنتاش صفحة تمام فهذا
+
+358
+00:27:23,850 --> 00:27:29,250
+بيساعدكم هذا إذا كان في نهاية ال reference لو إحنا
+
+359
+00:27:29,250 --> 00:27:33,470
+بدنا نعرف كيف نعمل reference في في المحتوى نفسه
+
+360
+00:27:33,470 --> 00:27:40,130
+تطلعوا يعني أنا بدأ أكبرلكم الخط شوية أساس تشوفوا
+
+361
+00:27:42,340 --> 00:27:47,800
+control شوفوا الخطك بده كبر شوية بيكبر اه okay سهل
+
+362
+00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:55,700
+الشوفوا Banz مثلا شايفين Banz Banz 1981 has done
+
+363
+00:27:55,700 --> 00:27:59,980
+research in this field his study يعني دراسته حكت
+
+364
+00:27:59,980 --> 00:28:04,520
+واحد تانين تلاتة اربعة خمسة طب بنشوف غير Banz طب
+
+365
+00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:08,840
+اذا كان اكتر من واحد نشوف كيف اكتر من واحد هنجد
+
+366
+00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:14,650
+اكتر من واحدطبعا إذا كنا بنحكي في بداية الجملة أو
+
+367
+00:28:14,650 --> 00:28:17,890
+في وسط الجملة لو إحنا بنعمل reference بداية الجملة
+
+368
+00:28:17,890 --> 00:28:22,990
+أو وسط الجملة بنقول مثلا افلان فلاني حكى behavior
+
+369
+00:28:22,990 --> 00:28:24,710
+of finance هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي
+
+370
+00:28:24,710 --> 00:28:24,750
+هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي
+
+371
+00:28:24,750 --> 00:28:26,250
+هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي
+
+372
+00:28:26,250 --> 00:28:28,970
+هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي
+
+373
+00:28:28,970 --> 00:28:32,390
+هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي
+
+374
+00:28:32,390 --> 00:28:32,450
+هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي هي
+
+375
+00:28:32,450 --> 00:28:36,490
+هي هي هي هي هي هي هي
+
+376
+00:28:36,490 --> 00:28:43,430
+هي هي هيفاصلة ألف وتسعمية وتسعين و بتسكر هذا إذا
+
+377
+00:28:43,430 --> 00:28:46,730
+كانت في نهاية الجملة حكينا كلامه و بعدين هذا
+
+378
+00:28:46,730 --> 00:28:49,810
+الكلام لمين الحكاه؟ bands ممكن انا في عندى
+
+379
+00:28:49,810 --> 00:28:52,670
+تاريختين انا اعمل reference ل bands اقول bands
+
+380
+00:28:52,670 --> 00:28:56,950
+nineteen ninety says blah blah blah او اكتب شو
+
+381
+00:28:56,950 --> 00:29:00,090
+حكاه و بعدين تحت اللي هو اكتب ال .. اللي هو bands
+
+382
+00:29:00,090 --> 00:29:07,520
+اللي حكى الكلاملأ هذا في styles بختلف بس احنا ال
+
+383
+00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:13,480
+styles اللي نحكي ال high quality style okay بعتمد
+
+384
+00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:17,080
+الطريقة اللي انا بحكي فيها طبعا يعني هنا مثلا
+
+385
+00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,620
+bands بتدهد في نهاية الجملة و طبعا بدوا يكونوا ان
+
+386
+00:29:20,620 --> 00:29:25,800
+انتوا تكونوا عندكم اللغة اللي تستاعدكم مثلا انا
+
+387
+00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:34,370
+حكيت bands 1990 claimsthat blah blah blah طب راح
+
+388
+00:29:34,370 --> 00:29:39,790
+واحد تاني غير bands مثلا فاما فاما طبعا نقطة و إذا
+
+389
+00:29:39,790 --> 00:29:48,870
+كانت نفس الحكي فنروح نكمل فاما 1996 for instance
+
+390
+00:29:48,870 --> 00:29:54,510
+argues فشوفوا أنا استخدمت claim و استخدمت argues
+
+391
+00:29:54,510 --> 00:29:59,410
+فمش حلو كتير أستخدم claims claims claimsأنا استخدم
+
+392
+00:29:59,410 --> 00:30:05,390
+نفس المصطلحات يعني بالعربي مثلا فاما بيقول .. يقول
+
+393
+00:30:05,390 --> 00:30:12,430
+أن ال behavioral finance كذا كذا كذا فاما يعرف ..
+
+394
+00:30:12,430 --> 00:30:16,290
+شوفوا استخدمنا كلمة أخرى بحيث أنه يصير في عندكم
+
+395
+00:30:16,290 --> 00:30:20,690
+يعني you are digesting the language أنه احنا عملنا
+
+396
+00:30:20,690 --> 00:30:24,160
+digesting لإن احنا بتشربين اللغة مظبوطمش just لو
+
+397
+00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:28,880
+احنا repeat the same things هذا اذا كان واحد اللي
+
+398
+00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:34,060
+كاتب ال .. اذا كان اكتر من واحد هندور على اكتر من
+
+399
+00:30:34,060 --> 00:30:39,660
+واحد كاتبيه مثلا ال .. شوفوا هاي مثلا Foster and
+
+400
+00:30:39,660 --> 00:30:44,560
+Stein طلعوا كيف Foster and Stein كيف .. كيف
+
+401
+00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:52,160
+معقولها referencesهي شايفين؟ Foster and Stein 2003
+
+402
+00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,640
+studied the incremental added value of the meaning
+
+403
+00:30:55,640 --> 00:31:00,480
+-reverting trading strategies okay they هه طبعا
+
+404
+00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,440
+مين they؟ ترجع لمين they؟ بالظبط مش أعيدهم كمرة
+
+405
+00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:10,620
+they ها Foster and كذا okay فهذا ايش ال .. how to
+
+406
+00:31:10,620 --> 00:31:14,820
+do the references بتلاحظوا لو احنا اجينا لكل ..
+
+407
+00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,440
+paragraph من هدول ال paragraph اللي نجد انه ال
+
+408
+00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:24,220
+references خوية كتير اذا كان تبقى اذا كان عندنا
+
+409
+00:31:24,220 --> 00:31:28,440
+two articles اتنين two writers طب لو كانوا تلاتة
+
+410
+00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:34,900
+او اكتر مين بيعرف كيف نعمل لهم نجيبلكم يلا مين
+
+411
+00:31:34,900 --> 00:31:44,640
+others طب بالانجليزي ايش نحكي اه طلعاتطلعوا اذا
+
+412
+00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,780
+كان اكتر من واحد اذا
+
+413
+00:31:48,780 --> 00:31:54,840
+كان اكتر من واحد بنحكي ايش اتشاو ايتال ايتال معناه
+
+414
+00:31:54,840 --> 00:32:02,400
+واخرون ايتال ايتال ايتال ايتال لحظهان شوه ايتال
+
+415
+00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,360
+نقطة الفين واربع
+
+416
+00:32:07,610 --> 00:32:10,670
+شفتوا كيف؟ يعني انا أورجلتكم لو كان reference
+
+417
+00:32:10,670 --> 00:32:14,310
+لواحد لو كان reference لاتنين لو كان reference
+
+418
+00:32:14,310 --> 00:32:20,550
+لتلاتة okay فإذا كان واحد is fine two are fine but
+
+419
+00:32:20,550 --> 00:32:25,310
+three more than three so you have to include اتقال
+
+420
+00:32:25,310 --> 00:32:31,330
+زي ما هي اتقال لكن بال reference تبعنا بال
+
+421
+00:32:31,330 --> 00:32:35,470
+reference تبعنا كلهم لانحطهم يعني لو احنا جيبنا
+
+422
+00:32:35,470 --> 00:32:42,240
+تشوةنشوف اتشاوة هذا الرجال لو روحنا دورنا عليه بال
+
+423
+00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:47,860
+reference هروحنا على ال reference و نعرف اتشاوة CH
+
+424
+00:32:47,860 --> 00:32:52,060
+هاي
+
+425
+00:32:52,060 --> 00:33:02,320
+اتشاوة شوفت اتشاوة؟ كيف نعمله reference اتشاوة
+
+426
+00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,880
+اتشاوة
+
+427
+00:33:08,230 --> 00:33:14,080
+هو الاسم طبعا هذا اسمه مختصر اسم النام سابقههذا
+
+428
+00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,820
+بيكون ال family name هذا بيكون ال .. ال fast name
+
+429
+00:33:16,820 --> 00:33:24,400
+تبعه و هذا K و W و .. و رمزها Maui و K طبعا هدول
+
+430
+00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:27,900
+مبينين يا Japanese يا Chinese يا اما يابانيين يا
+
+431
+00:33:27,900 --> 00:33:32,380
+.. هنعرف من وين profiteering trading mechanisms و
+
+432
+00:33:32,380 --> 00:33:38,680
+ال .. okay trading strategies طبعا فهذا ايش اتشوى
+
+433
+00:33:43,750 --> 00:33:47,930
+إذا عرفنا لو كان واحد لو كان اتنين لو كان تلاتة
+
+434
+00:33:47,930 --> 00:33:50,430
+فاهمنا إذا هي النقطة التانية حكينا على ال
+
+435
+00:33:50,430 --> 00:33:55,790
+coherence و حكينا على ال references طبعا إذا بشوف
+
+436
+00:33:55,790 --> 00:33:59,730
+أنا references مش كتير you are not follow this
+
+437
+00:33:59,730 --> 00:34:04,750
+style مع الكلام it may influence on your mark ممكن
+
+438
+00:34:04,750 --> 00:34:13,130
+تأثر على الدرجة تبعتكمطبعا؟ so be careful in .. in
+
+439
+00:34:13,130 --> 00:34:23,210
+doing this طيب من وين؟ من وين ممكن تجيب المجلة؟
+
+440
+00:34:23,210 --> 00:34:25,370
+إذا أخدتيه واش من هنا، من وين ممكن تجيبيه؟ من
+
+441
+00:34:25,370 --> 00:34:28,150
+المكتب، مش ممكن .. مش إنت عارف أنا أخده من المكتب؟
+
+442
+00:34:28,150 --> 00:34:36,610
+ممكن، و الله هيبقون نور على نور بقى .. إيه؟والله
+
+443
+00:34:36,610 --> 00:34:45,130
+أنا خبرتي بتقول انه يعني .. يعني مثلا واحد عنده
+
+444
+00:34:45,130 --> 00:34:50,450
+مية دولم أرض بده يزرعهم تمام؟
+
+445
+00:34:50,450 --> 00:34:55,730
+أمامه خيارين يجيب هال بالدوزر هذا و بثواني يعمل
+
+446
+00:34:55,730 --> 00:34:59,410
+هالمية دولم أو بدقائق أو يروح يمسك الفاسق و يبدأ
+
+447
+00:34:59,410 --> 00:35:03,750
+يشتغل فيهم واحد واحد فال .. ال .. المكتب أصلا ما
+
+448
+00:35:03,750 --> 00:35:08,010
+هي موجودة هناالمكتبة كلها و خاصة إذا الجامعة
+
+449
+00:35:08,010 --> 00:35:10,690
+الاسلامية في إلها access يلاحظوا هان لما احنا
+
+450
+00:35:10,690 --> 00:35:13,030
+روحنا على google scholar أو على ال science direct
+
+451
+00:35:13,030 --> 00:35:17,650
+نتبهوا في ملاحظة مهمة لازم تتبهوا إلها اطلعوا ع
+
+452
+00:35:17,650 --> 00:35:21,530
+أيديكوا اليمين مكتوب ع أيديكوا اليمين brought to
+
+453
+00:35:21,530 --> 00:35:24,630
+you Islamic university of Gaza الجامعة الاسلامية
+
+454
+00:35:24,630 --> 00:35:28,310
+مش تركة في هذا ال .. في هذا ال science direct
+
+455
+00:35:28,310 --> 00:35:32,210
+فمعناة كلها ممكن تروح على المكتبة ماتجدوش المقالة
+
+456
+00:35:32,210 --> 00:35:40,520
+بس تجدوها موجودة هنافهمتي كيف؟ عادي فانتبهوا
+
+457
+00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:45,340
+للكلام اللي ممكن تروح على المكتب لكن مش كل إشي
+
+458
+00:35:45,340 --> 00:35:51,660
+موجود طبعا و خاصة اليوم بالثورة التكنولوجية يعني
+
+459
+00:35:51,660 --> 00:36:00,780
+يعني أنا مثلا بآخر ست سنوات بالمجال الأكاديمي تبعي
+
+460
+00:36:00,780 --> 00:36:04,940
+أو بالمجال ال researchصحيح كنا نجلس في المكتبة لكن
+
+461
+00:36:04,940 --> 00:36:09,360
+ما نستخدمش ال .. ال .. ال hard copy ما نستخدمش ال
+
+462
+00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,540
+hard copy نستخدم soft copy يعني احنا نعمل access
+
+463
+00:36:12,540 --> 00:36:16,700
+من المكتبة لأنه في جو مريح و في هدوء و في كذا و
+
+464
+00:36:16,700 --> 00:36:19,080
+اذا عجبنا ال article نعمله printing out في المكتبة
+
+465
+00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,100
+و نقرأه في المكتبة هالمكتبة وجدت عشان احنا نعمل
+
+466
+00:36:22,100 --> 00:36:25,740
+focus و في بعض ال facilities ما بنستخدمهاش الا
+
+467
+00:36:25,740 --> 00:36:30,910
+داخل المكتبةو خاصة بعض ال database لو احنا طلعنا
+
+468
+00:36:30,910 --> 00:36:33,030
+برا المكتب مش هتكون احنا مسموح إلنا خاصة
+
+469
+00:36:33,030 --> 00:36:36,730
+electronic database خدمات إلكترونية مش هنقدر
+
+470
+00:36:36,730 --> 00:36:39,970
+نعملها access خارج المكتب بتكون داخل المكتب okay
+
+471
+00:36:39,970 --> 00:36:49,330
+طيب إذا حكينا عن ال structure of writing استخدموا
+
+472
+00:36:49,330 --> 00:36:53,070
+كمان ممكن تستخدم footnotesيعني حكينا عن ال
+
+473
+00:36:53,070 --> 00:36:56,050
+coherence حكينا عن ال references نحكي عن ال
+
+474
+00:36:56,050 --> 00:36:59,990
+footnotes ايش يعني ال footnotes انا امبارح اجاني
+
+475
+00:36:59,990 --> 00:37:06,070
+شاب و جاب لي المقال سبعه ال assignments فإيش مكتوب
+
+476
+00:37:06,070 --> 00:37:14,130
+في ال assignments مكتوب بلا بلا بلا I O U أو خلينا
+
+477
+00:37:14,130 --> 00:37:16,250
+نحكي أنه مثلا on R
+
+478
+00:37:23,100 --> 00:37:27,420
+OE مثلا return on equity في طبعا احنا عندنا
+
+479
+00:37:27,420 --> 00:37:30,400
+طريقتين ممكن نتعامل مع ال .. مع ال abbreviations
+
+480
+00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:34,360
+هذه الطريقة الأولى أول مرة بتكتب ال return on
+
+481
+00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:40,820
+equity أول مرة تكتب return on equity okay return
+
+482
+00:37:40,820 --> 00:37:46,220
+on equity خلاص بعد هيك بتصير تحط ROE هل الشاب لأ
+
+483
+00:37:46,220 --> 00:37:49,020
+عمل هيك ولا ايش؟ خلاص حاطط هيك فانا بسأله ايش هذا
+
+484
+00:37:49,020 --> 00:37:52,580
+بقول مابعرفشطب .. طب what it means بابا؟ أنا
+
+485
+00:37:52,580 --> 00:37:56,240
+ماعرفش، don't tell me I don't know because it is
+
+486
+00:37:56,240 --> 00:38:00,860
+your responsibility in every word that you write،
+
+487
+00:38:00,860 --> 00:38:03,700
+مسئوليتها في كل كلمة أنت كاتبها otherwise somebody
+
+488
+00:38:03,700 --> 00:38:07,780
+else do the assignment الحل الآخر أنه ناس تانين
+
+489
+00:38:07,780 --> 00:38:10,560
+عملولك ال assignment، so I intentionally ask him,
+
+490
+00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,640
+he said I don't know, I said okay take your
+
+491
+00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:14,960
+assignment and when you know deliver your
+
+492
+00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:19,360
+assignmentخد الأصانع تبعتك و كل ما تعرف ابتجيني
+
+493
+00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:29,160
+فإيش الشاب عامل IOU هتطها طب okay what it means he
+
+494
+00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:35,460
+keep silence ف either to for instance investments,
+
+495
+00:38:36,140 --> 00:38:41,120
+utility, opportunity and utilities for instance
+
+496
+00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,950
+this is the abbreviationsyou either put it like
+
+497
+00:38:43,950 --> 00:38:48,730
+this or do like footnotes use the footnotes ايش ال
+
+498
+00:38:48,730 --> 00:38:53,270
+footnotes ال footnotes اللي احنا التعريفة هذه
+
+499
+00:38:53,270 --> 00:39:00,950
+نحطها في الهامش تحت هنورجيكوا إياها لو
+
+500
+00:39:00,950 --> 00:39:09,830
+شوفنا احنا هاي ال assignments okay
+
+501
+00:39:09,830 --> 00:39:11,350
+اتطلعوا على ال assignments هان
+
+502
+00:39:14,770 --> 00:39:21,210
+هنجد في somewhere انه الراجل مستخدم footnotes
+
+503
+00:39:21,210 --> 00:39:26,650
+طلعوا
+
+504
+00:39:26,650 --> 00:39:33,890
+هان شايفين طبعا هو معرف sigma شوفوا هان رقم اللي
+
+505
+00:39:33,890 --> 00:39:38,290
+هي رقم أربعة شايفينها هان الصغيرة شايفينهاSigma
+
+506
+00:39:38,290 --> 00:39:42,770
+يعني واحدة من هالبنات و لا من هالولاد راح كاتبلي
+
+507
+00:39:42,770 --> 00:39:48,050
+we can measure the financial risk by using sigma
+
+508
+00:39:48,050 --> 00:39:53,810
+it was fine do you know what it means sigma I
+
+509
+00:39:53,810 --> 00:39:57,550
+don't know so if you don't know please don't write
+
+510
+00:39:57,550 --> 00:40:04,460
+it unless you understand itتكتبليش أي إشي مش فاهمه
+
+511
+00:40:04,460 --> 00:40:08,420
+يعني انا في one of the prestigious students واحد
+
+512
+00:40:08,420 --> 00:40:10,240
+من ال prestigious students you know what it means
+
+513
+00:40:10,240 --> 00:40:13,620
+prestigious students واحد منه و كان الطالب طبعا
+
+514
+00:40:13,620 --> 00:40:19,380
+كاتب شغلة فانا قلتلها don't show me your stupidity
+
+515
+00:40:19,380 --> 00:40:23,160
+ماتورجليش قداش انت غبي why؟
+
+516
+00:40:24,730 --> 00:40:28,690
+هي كاتبة شغلة I know she doesn't understand what
+
+517
+00:40:28,690 --> 00:40:32,230
+it means حاولي just write things that you
+
+518
+00:40:32,230 --> 00:40:35,890
+understand
+
+519
+00:40:35,890 --> 00:40:39,210
+أكتفوا الشغلة بس اللي بتفهموها الشغلة اللي ما
+
+520
+00:40:39,210 --> 00:40:43,170
+تفهموهاش و ما تورجونيهش يداش هذا الأستاذ تبعي مرة
+
+521
+00:40:43,170 --> 00:40:47,470
+كتبت شغلة أنا فاهمها في راسي كنت أو حتى يمكن
+
+522
+00:40:47,470 --> 00:40:50,770
+ماكنتش فاهمها لو بقولي well I will advise you one
+
+523
+00:40:50,770 --> 00:40:55,860
+thingshow me how you are smart don't show me how
+
+524
+00:40:55,860 --> 00:41:00,820
+you are stupid اه وارجيني كده انت شاطر ماتورجينيش
+
+525
+00:41:00,820 --> 00:41:05,040
+كده انت غبي طبعا كيف اكتشف شغلانه اعمل شغل انا
+
+526
+00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:10,020
+مااخدها من واحد وانا مش عارفها انا يعني just
+
+527
+00:41:10,020 --> 00:41:13,700
+stuffing يعني انا بحكي about myself انا بحكي على
+
+528
+00:41:13,700 --> 00:41:20,160
+نفسيSo try to avoid في طبعا كل إنسان احنا ما احنا
+
+529
+00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:25,180
+وصلنا من درجة العلم انه نحكي درجة الكمال لأ كل
+
+530
+00:41:25,180 --> 00:41:30,980
+إنسان في عنده أشياء لا يعرف فيها الشغيات اللي انت
+
+531
+00:41:30,980 --> 00:41:36,090
+ما بتعرف فيها ما تكتبهاunless ان انت you recession
+
+532
+00:41:36,090 --> 00:41:39,670
+it, understand it and then put it in your .. لإن
+
+533
+00:41:39,670 --> 00:41:42,670
+واحد راح انت نشرت المقال و واحد سألك اتصل فيك
+
+534
+00:41:42,670 --> 00:41:45,750
+تليفون جالك طب okay انت عامل الشغل هذي و أنا مش
+
+535
+00:41:45,750 --> 00:41:54,170
+فاهمها ممكن تفهمليها؟ اش بيصير؟ تمام؟
+
+536
+00:41:55,830 --> 00:42:01,090
+مرة أنا كتبت على موضوع .. موضوع بال .. بال .. بشغل
+
+537
+00:42:01,090 --> 00:42:06,090
+اسمه ال .. بال finance فواحد في جامعة university
+
+538
+00:42:06,090 --> 00:42:13,510
+of .. نسيت الجامعة في Warwick فبتستر أفنانه أخد ال
+
+539
+00:42:13,510 --> 00:42:16,450
+email تبعيه و هذا و بعت ال email قال can I call
+
+540
+00:42:16,450 --> 00:42:19,480
+you okayو اتصل فيه تليفون و قال لي انا في ال
+
+541
+00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:24,180
+equation هادى بال leads and lags انا يعني حاولت
+
+542
+00:42:24,180 --> 00:42:26,940
+اطبقها بالستاتة و مش واضحة عندي ممكن يعني تساعدني
+
+543
+00:42:26,940 --> 00:42:31,160
+اشتري free time و كذا فتصوروا ان انا حاطط شغلة مش
+
+544
+00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:38,480
+عارف كيف معمولة بصيب بمشكلة ولا لأ؟ okay so try to
+
+545
+00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:40,980
+.. any things include in your assignment to
+
+546
+00:42:40,980 --> 00:42:43,740
+understand it you don't need to read things that
+
+547
+00:42:43,740 --> 00:42:47,680
+you don't understandتمام؟ فشوفنا ال footnotes اللى
+
+548
+00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:52,440
+هو عندنا ال sigma اللى انكتبت ال sigma وعرفناها ال
+
+549
+00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:58,940
+sigma اللى هى .. خلّيني أحكي control F بدنا sigma
+
+550
+00:42:58,940 --> 00:43:03,020
+شوفوا
+
+551
+00:43:03,020 --> 00:43:09,780
+هى sigma شايفينها sigma هن؟مكتوب and these extreme
+
+552
+00:43:09,780 --> 00:43:13,180
+values are not confined three sigmas طب احنا
+
+553
+00:43:13,180 --> 00:43:18,650
+حكيتها three sigmas شو هم ال three sigmas هدول؟we
+
+554
+00:43:18,650 --> 00:43:22,270
+don't know يعني even me I don't know so explain
+
+555
+00:43:22,270 --> 00:43:26,550
+this فبنحط في الفوتناو ستهت okay sigma is a
+
+556
+00:43:26,550 --> 00:43:30,050
+standard deviation about ninety nine point seven
+
+557
+00:43:30,050 --> 00:43:34,190
+percent of a normal distribution m zero one is
+
+558
+00:43:34,190 --> 00:43:39,270
+confined to three sigmas خلاص وضحكت عرفت what it
+
+559
+00:43:39,270 --> 00:43:45,710
+means sigma الطريقة التانية ان احنا بتعملي sigma
+
+560
+00:43:45,710 --> 00:43:51,620
+طريقة ثانية sigmaو بتعمل between quotation و
+
+561
+00:43:51,620 --> 00:43:57,780
+بتروحي بتحطيها بانجوسان that's it ممكن نحط ال
+
+562
+00:43:57,780 --> 00:44:07,220
+abbreviations
+
+563
+00:44:07,220 --> 00:44:11,700
+و نحط ال sigma هذه كلها فهمش الحال طب إذا في كان
+
+564
+00:44:11,700 --> 00:44:14,660
+أكتر من تعريف ل sigma ممكن نحط sigma و نقول other
+
+565
+00:44:14,660 --> 00:44:19,750
+people explain sigma like thisOkay فانتبهنا لل
+
+566
+00:44:19,750 --> 00:44:23,390
+footnotes how you can use the footnotes يعني بيكون
+
+567
+00:44:23,390 --> 00:44:31,330
+بيكون مرات strange concept strange concept مصطلحات
+
+568
+00:44:31,330 --> 00:44:39,070
+غريبة و خاصة ممكن مصطلحات لاتينية okay يعني مثلا
+
+569
+00:44:39,070 --> 00:44:42,210
+لما نحكي عن random walk okay random walk what it
+
+570
+00:44:42,210 --> 00:44:45,810
+means فلازم يكون عندنا وضوح فيها طيب
+
+571
+00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:54,700
+فالأول صفحة عندنا بنات هي أول صفحة أنا بدأ أكتب ال
+
+572
+00:44:54,700 --> 00:44:59,280
+assignment تبعي ال assignment تبعي أول صفحة بتكتب
+
+573
+00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:02,480
+فيها التفاصيل تبعتكم زي ما هي موجودة هنا تلعبوا
+
+574
+00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:10,320
+التفاصيل خليكي أحسن التفاصيل
+
+575
+00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:15,660
+اسم السؤال اللي انتوا هتتعاملوا عليه تمام واسمكم
+
+576
+00:45:15,660 --> 00:45:20,020
+انتوا تمام و أي فصلاللي بعدين بيصير عندى ال table
+
+577
+00:45:20,020 --> 00:45:23,220
+of contents خلصنا أول صفحة في الصفحة التانية إيش
+
+578
+00:45:23,220 --> 00:45:29,800
+بعمل ال table of contents ال table of contents
+
+579
+00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:34,340
+يعني جدول المحتويات جدول المحتويات بنعمله بآخر إشي
+
+580
+00:45:34,340 --> 00:45:39,240
+طيب و أنا هارجيكم كمان كيف ممكن نسوي بنتركنا
+
+581
+00:45:39,240 --> 00:45:42,540
+صفحتان أول ما بنسوي بنكتب شغلة اسمة introduction
+
+582
+00:45:42,540 --> 00:45:44,760
+المقدمة
+
+583
+00:45:45,900 --> 00:45:50,300
+صفحة التالتة هاي ال introduction ال introduction
+
+584
+00:45:50,300 --> 00:45:54,960
+بتاخد heading one بتاخد ايش heading one يعني بتاخد
+
+585
+00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:58,460
+العنوان الرئيسي فعشان بتاخد heading one بنروح على
+
+586
+00:45:58,460 --> 00:46:04,740
+شايفين هان heading one هاي heading one طبعا تنسوش
+
+587
+00:46:04,740 --> 00:46:11,900
+ان انتوا تعملوا ترقيم للصفحات تنسوش طبعا هاي عملنا
+
+588
+00:46:11,900 --> 00:46:16,560
+ترقيم للصفحات بنرجع للصفحة رقم اتنينارجعوا على
+
+589
+00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:21,300
+صفحة 2 و بنحط اللي هو ال table of contents صفحة
+
+590
+00:46:21,300 --> 00:46:29,680
+التانية بنروح نحكي reference تمام و بنروح شايفين
+
+591
+00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:33,000
+ال table of contents و بنعمل click عليه نختار أي
+
+592
+00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:36,220
+style احنا بعجبنا و نروح و نقوله okay فهي كتب ال
+
+593
+00:46:36,220 --> 00:46:42,060
+introduction صفحة 3 شايفينها يعني مابديش انا اتكتب
+
+594
+00:46:42,950 --> 00:46:46,610
+يعني manual خلاص automatically هلأ إيش الموضوع أنا
+
+595
+00:46:46,610 --> 00:46:49,770
+كتبنا بال introduction يعني كتبنا ال introduction
+
+596
+00:46:49,770 --> 00:46:52,490
+ال introduction إيش بدنا نكتب فيها ال introduction
+
+597
+00:46:52,490 --> 00:46:56,970
+بدك تكتب فيها what are you going to do إيش أنت
+
+598
+00:46:56,970 --> 00:47:04,930
+هتسوي بالراحة okay هلأ في الصفحة التانية حكينا
+
+599
+00:47:04,930 --> 00:47:07,870
+الصفحة الأولى your details الصفحة التانية بدنا
+
+600
+00:47:07,870 --> 00:47:10,790
+نحكي عن ال table of contents بنروح على references
+
+601
+00:47:10,790 --> 00:47:11,690
+زي ما تشايفها
+
+602
+00:47:16,870 --> 00:47:23,590
+مش مشكلة بنروح على table of contents في عندك زي ما
+
+603
+00:47:23,590 --> 00:47:27,050
+انت شايفه فيه many styles ال styles اللي بيعجبكم
+
+604
+00:47:27,050 --> 00:47:33,190
+بيختاروه فبنروح عاش بنحط نعمل click بيجي لبعد نحن
+
+605
+00:47:33,190 --> 00:47:38,070
+نخلص كل الشغل تبعنا بس نعمل update fieldبس هيغير
+
+606
+00:47:38,070 --> 00:47:43,410
+وي .. طيب هلأ ايش ال introduction ايش بتشمل؟ طبعا
+
+607
+00:47:43,410 --> 00:47:46,210
+ال introduction عادة تكتب أخرش لكن احنا بدنا
+
+608
+00:47:46,210 --> 00:47:49,430
+نكتبها بحيث نورجيكوا ايش ال introduction what you
+
+609
+00:47:49,430 --> 00:47:53,890
+are going to do مثلا
+
+610
+00:47:53,890 --> 00:48:00,770
+بنقول this assignment aims
+
+611
+00:48:00,770 --> 00:48:08,490
+to explainأول جملة هي أهم جملة أنتوا بتحطوها أهم
+
+612
+00:48:08,490 --> 00:48:11,590
+جملة أن أنتوا بتسوها this assignment aims to
+
+613
+00:48:11,590 --> 00:48:15,750
+explain the behavioral finance or the trading
+
+614
+00:48:15,750 --> 00:48:20,070
+mechanisms خلنا ناخد سؤال the trading mechanisms
+
+615
+00:48:20,070 --> 00:48:25,430
+أي سؤال بتكون إياه mechanisms and the market
+
+616
+00:48:25,430 --> 00:48:26,870
+participants
+
+617
+00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:35,680
+طيب هلا احنا حطينا اول جملة هذه ال key idea تبعتنا
+
+618
+00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,840
+طيب ال training mechanisms what it means training
+
+619
+00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:41,320
+mechanisms فبنبدأ نكتب okay the training
+
+620
+00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:48,680
+mechanisms means
+
+621
+00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:52,580
+that و بتبدو تعرفوا ايش ال training mechanisms
+
+622
+00:48:52,580 --> 00:48:57,300
+خلصنا خلصنا ال paragraph هذي بنروح بنحكي ايش
+
+623
+00:48:57,300 --> 00:49:00,340
+ضايقنا نحكي عن market participantsthe market
+
+624
+00:49:00,340 --> 00:49:04,260
+participants includes
+
+625
+00:49:04,260 --> 00:49:09,800
+okay و بتبدأ تحكي عن market participants خلصنا
+
+626
+00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:16,920
+بنجور this assignment is
+
+627
+00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:18,560
+structured as follows
+
+628
+00:49:23,250 --> 00:49:27,250
+ماذا يعني structured يعني منظم كالتالي section one
+
+629
+00:49:27,250 --> 00:49:29,290
+talk about this section two talk about this
+
+630
+00:49:29,290 --> 00:49:33,070
+section three and the conclusion خلصنا يعني البخرة
+
+631
+00:49:33,070 --> 00:49:37,550
+ال introduction فاهم كل شي he or she doesn't need
+
+632
+00:49:37,550 --> 00:49:44,350
+to go to read your assignments هلأ نيجي نحكي نكمل
+
+633
+00:49:44,350 --> 00:49:47,730
+خلصنا ال introduction نحكي section one مثلا اللي
+
+634
+00:49:47,730 --> 00:49:50,210
+هو behavioral or trading mechanisms
+
+635
+00:49:55,310 --> 00:49:59,610
+طبعا trading mechanisms كله ورا بعض ال trading
+
+636
+00:49:59,610 --> 00:50:05,690
+mechanisms هذي هذي heading هذي head و هذي ايش head
+
+637
+00:50:05,690 --> 00:50:09,130
+بتاخد heading one تروحوا على heading one و اقبلها
+
+638
+00:50:09,130 --> 00:50:12,450
+heading لو احنا طلعنا فوق طلعنا فوق و عملنا
+
+639
+00:50:12,450 --> 00:50:19,330
+updates okay update لل table update into our table
+
+640
+00:50:19,330 --> 00:50:25,470
+هنجد ان ال trading mechanisms انتحطتOkay فاللأ
+
+641
+00:50:25,470 --> 00:50:29,810
+حكينا عن trading mechanisms لجينا أنه في trading
+
+642
+00:50:29,810 --> 00:50:35,110
+mechanisms عرفناها وحكينا فلان بيحكي trading
+
+643
+00:50:35,110 --> 00:50:40,410
+mechanism كذا و okay و .. و trading mechanism تشمل
+
+644
+00:50:40,410 --> 00:50:43,250
+عدة mechanisms لاحظين mechanisms يعني في كذا
+
+645
+00:50:43,250 --> 00:50:47,590
+mechanisms يعني مثلا ممكن نقول dealer market
+
+646
+00:50:50,590 --> 00:50:54,010
+طبعا ننساش ان احنا نرقم ال introduction بتاخد رقم
+
+647
+00:50:54,010 --> 00:50:59,130
+واحد شفتوا ال trading mechanism بتاخد رقم اتنين
+
+648
+00:50:59,130 --> 00:51:02,990
+اذا كان فرعي ال dealer market بتاخد two point one
+
+649
+00:51:02,990 --> 00:51:08,390
+و بتاخد heeding ايش heeding two منروح على heeding
+
+650
+00:51:08,390 --> 00:51:11,310
+one منروح على heeding two لو احنا روحنا على ال
+
+651
+00:51:11,310 --> 00:51:15,150
+table الموجود هنا نعمل update table هنلاقي انه
+
+652
+00:51:15,150 --> 00:51:19,650
+شوفوا كيف الترتيب صار heeding one صار heeding two
+
+653
+00:51:22,450 --> 00:51:26,910
+طبعا حكينا عن ال dealer market و كذا بعدين روح
+
+654
+00:51:26,910 --> 00:51:33,890
+نقاش في mechanism تاني اللي هو مثلا ال ACN's طبعا
+
+655
+00:51:33,890 --> 00:51:39,010
+ال ACN's ال electronic communication networks طبعا
+
+656
+00:51:39,010 --> 00:51:43,830
+بتاخد 2.2 مظبوط برضه بنعطيها heading 2
+
+657
+00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:52,400
+لازم يكونوا متساوين يعني إذا أنت بتكتب في ال
+
+658
+00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:56,180
+dealer market مثلا عشر أسطور هديك تقريبا مش شرط
+
+659
+00:51:56,180 --> 00:52:00,700
+تقريبا تسعة عشرة أو أحداشر أه اللي يكون فيه توازن
+
+660
+00:52:00,700 --> 00:52:04,950
+بال ..تقارب لو رجعنا كمان على هنا هنلاقي ايش
+
+661
+00:52:04,950 --> 00:52:10,470
+update و هنلاقي ايش 2.2 طيب خلصنا نحكي عن trading
+
+662
+00:52:10,470 --> 00:52:13,470
+mechanisms نروح نحكي عن اللي هو market
+
+663
+00:52:13,470 --> 00:52:16,610
+participants شوفتوا كيف احنا زي ما حكيت ال main
+
+664
+00:52:16,610 --> 00:52:19,950
+ideas مرتبطة فيها مافيش اشي يعني مابنحكيش اشي برا
+
+665
+00:52:19,950 --> 00:52:25,570
+الموضوع نحكي مثلا على market participants market
+
+666
+00:52:25,570 --> 00:52:27,870
+participants
+
+667
+00:52:31,710 --> 00:52:40,090
+هذه هتاخد تلاتة صح هتاخد تلاتة هتاخد Heading 1 هاي
+
+668
+00:52:40,090 --> 00:52:46,470
+Heading 1 تمام Heading 1 حكينا عن ال market ..
+
+669
+00:52:46,470 --> 00:52:48,730
+أعرفنا ال market participants و أعرفنا مين هم
+
+670
+00:52:48,730 --> 00:52:51,990
+فنيجي نحكي الأنواع و مين هم ال market participants
+
+671
+00:52:51,990 --> 00:52:56,890
+ممكن نقول مثلا ال three نيجي نحكي اللي هو ال
+
+672
+00:52:56,890 --> 00:52:57,230
+investors
+
+673
+00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:07,840
+مثلا و بنحكي عن ال investors مثلا mutual funds و
+
+674
+00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:11,460
+بنحكي عن ال mutual funds ال investors بنحطها
+
+675
+00:53:11,460 --> 00:53:17,800
+heeding 2 تمام و ها دي heeding 2 تمام و ها دي
+
+676
+00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:25,800
+بتكون 3.1 و ها دي 3.2 okay
+
+677
+00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:35,280
+و جينا بنعمل updateلل table شوفوا كيف مرتب الاشي
+
+678
+00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:40,360
+هك شايفين كيف مرتب introduction ماضحة انا لما بطلع
+
+679
+00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:43,820
+ال table of contents انا بقدر اقيم شغلك من اول
+
+680
+00:53:43,820 --> 00:53:47,660
+صفحة من اول صفحة اقدر اعرف you are you are doing
+
+681
+00:53:47,660 --> 00:53:51,400
+well ولا you are just rushing your assignments طب
+
+682
+00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:54,080
+انا هذا بس اذكركم انه انا هذا ال assignment كان
+
+683
+00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:57,200
+مطلوب منكم من شهرين زمان صح او يعني about three
+
+684
+00:53:57,200 --> 00:54:05,150
+months من تلت شهورمش .. مش هذه المشكلة المشكلة أنه
+
+685
+00:54:05,150 --> 00:54:08,350
+لو أنت قرأت في دقيقة أقل شيء أنه كان عندك .. موجود
+
+686
+00:54:08,350 --> 00:54:13,290
+عندك شغلة تكتب فيها لأن ال writing تيجي أخر إشي
+
+687
+00:54:13,290 --> 00:54:15,530
+أول شي بيكون فيه reading و بعدين بندخل على ال
+
+688
+00:54:15,530 --> 00:54:18,170
+writing طبعا هذا ال first step
+
+689
+00:54:21,240 --> 00:54:25,020
+فخلصنا بيصير انه احنا بدنا نشوف موضوعنا trading
+
+690
+00:54:25,020 --> 00:54:28,780
+mechanisms in Palestine Stock Exchange مش هيك
+
+691
+00:54:28,780 --> 00:54:32,940
+سؤالنا خلصنا market participants خلصنا كذا بالظبط
+
+692
+00:54:32,940 --> 00:54:35,960
+بعدين بيحكي على اللي هو بدنا نعرف ايش ال trading
+
+693
+00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:38,600
+mechanisms اللي متعاملوا فيها مثلا Palestine Stock
+
+694
+00:54:38,600 --> 00:54:39,140
+Exchange
+
+695
+00:54:45,700 --> 00:54:52,400
+هذه باريس تاينس توك إكشنج هتاخد heading one و رقم
+
+696
+00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:57,640
+تلاتة و رقم أربعة زي ما انتوا بتكونوا لإن هذه
+
+697
+00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:01,060
+هتكون ACN's
+
+698
+00:55:01,060 --> 00:55:02,940
+هنعمل control X
+
+699
+00:55:09,170 --> 00:55:12,090
+نفس الشغل هنحكي في Palestine Stock Exchange
+
+700
+00:55:12,090 --> 00:55:16,730
+موضوعين إيش هم ال trading mechanisms اللي بتبقى و
+
+701
+00:55:16,730 --> 00:55:22,870
+market participants هيكون عندى 4.1 و 4.2 هنيجي
+
+702
+00:55:22,870 --> 00:55:32,370
+نعرف اللي هو BSC ال trading mechanisms تمام
+
+703
+00:55:32,370 --> 00:55:36,770
+و عندنا اللي هو market participants بس هذا المطلوب
+
+704
+00:55:36,770 --> 00:55:37,090
+مننا
+
+705
+00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:49,020
+Okay فبنيجي هنا منروح
+
+706
+00:55:49,020 --> 00:55:53,440
+هنا طبعا heading heading 2 هذا heading 2 وهذا
+
+707
+00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:58,540
+heading 2 okay الأخر
+
+708
+00:55:58,540 --> 00:56:04,280
+إشي بعد ما خلصنا الكلام هذا نكتب ال conclusion هاي
+
+709
+00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:07,460
+ال conclusion رقم 5 بتاخد صح conclusion
+
+710
+00:56:10,830 --> 00:56:16,110
+Okay ال conclusion نحطها heading ham و هرجع
+
+711
+00:56:16,110 --> 00:56:20,710
+أحكيلكوا إيش ال conclusion بس الصبر يا باشا ال
+
+712
+00:56:20,710 --> 00:56:23,790
+conclusion خلصنا ال conclusion نحط إيش ال
+
+713
+00:56:23,790 --> 00:56:28,950
+references ال references و إذا كان في عندي
+
+714
+00:56:28,950 --> 00:56:32,470
+appendix بحط ال appendix هاي ال references و بنروح
+
+715
+00:56:32,470 --> 00:56:34,730
+نحط نعطيها heading طبعا ماترقموهاش ال references
+
+716
+00:56:34,730 --> 00:56:39,110
+بتترقمش لإن هي مش جزء من ال .. اه فلو روحنا احنا
+
+717
+00:56:39,110 --> 00:56:40,050
+عملنا updates
+
+718
+00:56:43,250 --> 00:56:47,050
+updates هاي هي ال assignment تبعنا شايفينه يعني
+
+719
+00:56:47,050 --> 00:56:53,970
+نكمل لكم إياها شويه هيك شوفوا
+
+720
+00:56:53,970 --> 00:57:01,250
+كيف يعني professional هاي
+
+721
+00:57:01,250 --> 00:57:08,440
+إيش رأيكم يعني ممكن تصور جنبه احناأي introduction,
+
+722
+00:57:09,580 --> 00:57:12,640
+trading mechanisms, dealers و ال conclusion نيجي
+
+723
+00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:16,620
+نحكي أخر شيء بعدين طلعوا يا بنات يا بنات انتبهوا
+
+724
+00:57:16,620 --> 00:57:22,600
+هان لو روحنا احنا على view روحنا على document map
+
+725
+00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:25,860
+هاي ال document map تبعتنا فانا بدل ما أروح أدور
+
+726
+00:57:25,860 --> 00:57:28,580
+في الصفحة وين بدأ أروح بدأ أروح مثلا أقرأ في ال
+
+727
+00:57:28,580 --> 00:57:31,280
+conclusion بروح بعمل tick على ال conclusion و بروح
+
+728
+00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:37,620
+أشوفه طيب ال conclusion إيش هي؟كيف نعملها؟ طيب،
+
+729
+00:57:37,620 --> 00:57:42,980
+هلأ بتروحي على view و بتروحي على view و بتحطي على
+
+730
+00:57:42,980 --> 00:57:47,020
+document map تحطي على document map و إيجدكي على
+
+731
+00:57:47,020 --> 00:57:52,480
+الشمال طبعا بال version تبع العشرة أجمل شوية
+
+732
+00:57:52,480 --> 00:57:55,980
+بيعطيكي document map بطريقة مرتبة و رائعة كتير
+
+733
+00:57:55,980 --> 00:58:00,630
+okayفالا بدك تروح مثلا على market participants
+
+734
+00:58:00,630 --> 00:58:03,790
+justic، بدك تروح على ال conclusion justic on the
+
+735
+00:58:03,790 --> 00:58:07,730
+conclusion، أسهل يعني تصور إن عندك مثلا خمسمية
+
+736
+00:58:07,730 --> 00:58:10,250
+صفحة، بدك يبقى عندك خمسمية صفحة، بدك تروح على
+
+737
+00:58:10,250 --> 00:58:15,010
+خمسمية صفحة، okay؟ بعدين conclusion، ال conclusion
+
+738
+00:58:15,010 --> 00:58:18,210
+إيش هي؟ هي ال introduction لكن بتعملوها
+
+739
+00:58:18,210 --> 00:58:22,470
+paraphrase، that's itعملولها paraphrase يعني عيدوا
+
+740
+00:58:22,470 --> 00:58:27,990
+صياغة ال introduction يعني ممكن انتوا اذا احنا
+
+741
+00:58:27,990 --> 00:58:31,110
+بدأنا من a to z يعني مثلا من ال introduction
+
+742
+00:58:31,110 --> 00:58:36,050
+اقبلوا من z to a فهمتوا؟ بالعكس؟ اه اقبلوا بالعكس
+
+743
+00:58:36,050 --> 00:58:40,150
+يعني نفسها يعني تحكوش اشي بال conclusion انتوا
+
+744
+00:58:40,150 --> 00:58:49,290
+ماحكتوش عنه نهائي احكوا شغلات مكتوبة عنهاو الله ب
+
+745
+00:58:49,290 --> 00:58:52,690
+conclusion ناسقته و لكن الباحث يارا كذا كذا طب انت
+
+746
+00:58:52,690 --> 00:58:56,350
+حكيت في الكلام هذا داخل ال lesson و ماحكيتش طبعا
+
+747
+00:58:56,350 --> 00:59:03,970
+فهذا اللي انا اللي هدب بسريع كيف احنا نكتب ال
+
+748
+00:59:03,970 --> 00:59:08,950
+introduction و كيف نتعامل معها طبعا هذه احنا بنقول
+
+749
+00:59:08,950 --> 00:59:14,490
+مش كتير يعني تفصيلية لكن على الأقل على مستواكوا
+
+750
+00:59:14,490 --> 00:59:15,770
+يعني بتساعدكوا
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9fb6a0655978065e91d88315406b38566e0fb3af
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1628 @@
+1
+00:00:21,230 --> 00:00:25,690
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة
+
+2
+00:00:25,690 --> 00:00:28,430
+الفاتة كنا نحكي بال difference the main difference
+
+3
+00:00:28,430 --> 00:00:33,510
+between real rate of return and nominal rate اللي
+
+4
+00:00:33,510 --> 00:00:36,690
+هو السعر الفائده الحقيقي و السعر الفائده الإسمى
+
+5
+00:00:36,690 --> 00:00:43,450
+تمام؟ و اليوم بدنا نحكي بتفاصيل أكتر عن العوامل
+
+6
+00:00:43,450 --> 00:00:46,450
+بتأثر the factors influence on the nominal rate of
+
+7
+00:00:46,450 --> 00:00:50,280
+return and real rate of returnبنحكي عن عوامل يتأثر
+
+8
+00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,500
+على الأسعار الفائدة الحقية و الأسعار الفائدة
+
+9
+00:00:52,500 --> 00:00:55,820
+الإسمية أو ليش في فرق بين أسعار الفائدة الحقية و
+
+10
+00:00:55,820 --> 00:00:59,360
+الأسعار الفائدة الإسمية بس نذكركوا أن احنا المرة
+
+11
+00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:05,220
+الفاتة حكينا ان
+
+12
+00:01:05,220 --> 00:01:10,820
+ال real rate of return بتتأثر في ال inflation صح
+
+13
+00:01:10,820 --> 00:01:14,100
+هذا المرة الفاتة الحكينا و بتتأثر في other factors
+
+14
+00:01:14,100 --> 00:01:19,330
+كمان في factors أخرى ال liquidity و الاه احنا
+
+15
+00:01:19,330 --> 00:01:25,160
+اليوم هناخد تفاصيل اكترفي .. في العوامل اللي بتأثر
+
+16
+00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:28,880
+لأنه احنا في هذا المستوى مش هنقدر ت study all of
+
+17
+00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,380
+factors influence on the interest rate of Britain
+
+18
+00:01:31,380 --> 00:01:35,580
+مش هنقدر نغطي كل ال factors اللي بتأثر على ال
+
+19
+00:01:35,580 --> 00:01:40,140
+interest rate of Britain هن .. هنشوف مجموعة some
+
+20
+00:01:40,140 --> 00:01:44,900
+of factors has direct impact on the real rate of
+
+21
+00:01:44,900 --> 00:01:47,460
+Britain one of these factors as I mentioned before
+
+22
+00:01:47,460 --> 00:01:49,920
+واحدة من ال factors اللي زي ما انا حكيت المرة
+
+23
+00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,870
+الفاترة is the inflation rateother factors is the
+
+24
+00:01:53,870 --> 00:01:59,530
+taxation الدريبة is important other factors the
+
+25
+00:01:59,530 --> 00:02:05,770
+period as I say the maturity okay I explained this
+
+26
+00:02:05,770 --> 00:02:09,810
+before okay or this is called the period or the
+
+27
+00:02:09,810 --> 00:02:13,790
+holding period or the maturity we will focus on
+
+28
+00:02:13,790 --> 00:02:16,790
+these three factors and how these three factors
+
+29
+00:02:16,790 --> 00:02:19,590
+influence on the real
+
+30
+00:02:25,010 --> 00:02:34,970
+يعني هذا التركيز سيكون اليوم okay just
+
+31
+00:02:34,970 --> 00:02:38,470
+to remind you with the explanation of nominal rate
+
+32
+00:02:40,550 --> 00:02:43,470
+to differentiate between the real rate of return
+
+33
+00:02:43,470 --> 00:02:47,510
+and nominal rate just keep in your mind this
+
+34
+00:02:47,510 --> 00:02:53,230
+example when you pour some coke on this glass لما
+
+35
+00:02:53,230 --> 00:02:56,710
+احنا بحط شوية Coca Cola في ال glass فبصير فيها
+
+36
+00:02:56,710 --> 00:03:01,210
+ارتفاع عن حجمها الطبيعي but the reality of the
+
+37
+00:03:01,210 --> 00:03:04,590
+coke is like this لكن الوضع الحقيقي لل Coca Cola
+
+38
+00:03:04,590 --> 00:03:10,790
+هي بالجزء هذا بس هذا جزء ضبابي مش حقيقيفهذا الجزء
+
+39
+00:03:10,790 --> 00:03:16,050
+بنسميه nominal كله nominal okay وهذا البعض هو is
+
+40
+00:03:16,050 --> 00:03:21,490
+the real هذا هو ال real وهذا هو ال nominal okay
+
+41
+00:03:21,490 --> 00:03:25,750
+just to keep your mind that the real or the
+
+42
+00:03:25,750 --> 00:03:29,090
+effective rate of return is less than the nominal
+
+43
+00:03:29,090 --> 00:03:33,590
+rate of return يعني دائما بيكون أقل من ال real
+
+44
+00:03:33,590 --> 00:03:37,990
+rate of return nominal the definition of nominal
+
+45
+00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:45,400
+interest rate a growth rate of your money و هذا
+
+46
+00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:50,460
+تعريف a growth rate of your money يعني نمو في
+
+47
+00:03:50,460 --> 00:03:56,220
+الكتلة النخدية يعني مثلا واحد بيكون مع 100 شكل
+
+48
+00:03:56,220 --> 00:04:04,960
+بيصيروا مثلا 200 شكل is important هل هذا مهم يعني
+
+49
+00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:09,620
+is a difference between 200 شكل and 100 شكل yesbut
+
+50
+00:04:09,620 --> 00:04:11,680
+from the economic point of view sometimes there is
+
+51
+00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,660
+no difference from economic point of view يعني من
+
+52
+00:04:15,660 --> 00:04:18,640
+وجهة نظر اقتصادية مرات لأ خليني انا اعطيكوا مثال
+
+53
+00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:25,040
+خليني اعطيكوا مثال كان زمان و انتوا صغار أبوكوا
+
+54
+00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:29,100
+يعطوكوا أجورة عارفين الأجورة؟ مصروف، سفرة، لدياش
+
+55
+00:04:29,100 --> 00:04:32,420
+كان مصروفكوا زمان؟ زمان قبل .. انتوا يعني متوسط
+
+56
+00:04:32,420 --> 00:04:33,800
+أعماركوا سبعتاش و تمانتاش
+
+57
+00:04:37,780 --> 00:04:42,400
+أه لما كنا بالروضة، قداشر؟ نص شاكل شو كنت تشتري
+
+58
+00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:47,560
+بالنص شاكل؟ يعني
+
+59
+00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:53,940
+أكم شغلة، five items خلّيني أقول five items طيب،
+
+60
+00:04:53,940 --> 00:04:58,500
+انتبهوا، انتبهوا يعني هذا .. هذا good example to
+
+61
+00:04:58,500 --> 00:05:02,620
+understand the nominal rates هي growth of the ..
+
+62
+00:05:02,620 --> 00:05:07,260
+of the moneyأه بس خلينا .. اه اللي هو عنا growth
+
+63
+00:05:07,260 --> 00:05:13,300
+rate of your money هو زيادة أو نمو في .. في الكتلة
+
+64
+00:05:13,300 --> 00:05:18,020
+النقدية طيب، زي هالا النص شاكل هذه لو احنا بدنا
+
+65
+00:05:18,020 --> 00:05:21,160
+نرجع ل .. اليوم عشان تاخد قيمة النص شاكل كام
+
+66
+00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:25,760
+هتكون؟ خمس شاكل نفترض صح؟ ممكن تاخد خمس شاكل تشتري
+
+67
+00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:32,400
+نفس ال five items مظبوط؟ five شاكل اذا .. اذا ..
+
+68
+00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:36,680
+اذا it is not rightthat the two hundred is greater
+
+69
+00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:41,100
+than one hundred from economic point of view من
+
+70
+00:05:41,100 --> 00:05:44,080
+وجه نظر نقدية ممكن the two hundred the value of
+
+71
+00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,500
+two hundred is less than the value of one hundred
+
+72
+00:05:46,500 --> 00:05:54,080
+طب النص شاكل كانت بالأول يمكن نص شاكل is giving
+
+73
+00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:59,930
+you five itemsطب ال five شكل اليوم ممكن تجيب
+
+74
+00:05:59,930 --> 00:06:04,170
+similar five items, so in this case half شكل is
+
+75
+00:06:04,170 --> 00:06:07,290
+equal five شكل، النص شكل بتاع الزمال بتثور الخمسة
+
+76
+00:06:07,290 --> 00:06:09,550
+شكل بتاعت اليوم، مثال تاني
+
+77
+00:06:14,540 --> 00:06:17,780
+كان في واحد طبعا احنا بنحكي على ال .. كان كنت انا
+
+78
+00:06:17,780 --> 00:06:21,980
+أشتغل في bank of Palestine وكنت ال .. ال manager
+
+79
+00:06:21,980 --> 00:06:24,300
+تبع ال treasury departments اللي هو المدير الخزينة
+
+80
+00:06:24,300 --> 00:06:28,620
+فإجتنا case عشان تفهموا إيش ال .. كيف ال growth in
+
+81
+00:06:28,620 --> 00:06:31,260
+the .. on the money value إجتنا case من المحكمة
+
+82
+00:06:31,260 --> 00:06:37,460
+بيقول إنه بدنا نعرف قداش قيمة التلاتة ليرات أردنى
+
+83
+00:06:37,460 --> 00:06:43,740
+في ذاك الوقت تلات ليرات أردنى في سنة خمس وستينطبعا
+
+84
+00:06:43,740 --> 00:06:46,580
+كان في راجل و امرأة طبعا سبب ال case تجينا الحالة
+
+85
+00:06:46,580 --> 00:06:50,940
+يعني راجل و امرأة ماتجتلين مع بعض فيبدوا انه بيصير
+
+86
+00:06:50,940 --> 00:06:55,640
+مشاكل بناتهم فبدوا يروحوا يخلصوا يعني رجعوا لها
+
+87
+00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,620
+الشو بيسموه العفش البيت و المتأخر المؤخر طبعا
+
+88
+00:06:59,620 --> 00:07:03,580
+المؤخر تبعها تلاتة دينار كام؟ تلاتة دينار أردني في
+
+89
+00:07:03,580 --> 00:07:08,340
+سنة ال 65 فال مادام في ذاك الوقت كانت يعني ذكية
+
+90
+00:07:08,340 --> 00:07:10,840
+كتير فراحت وجهتلها المحكمة فالراجل تبعها جالها
+
+91
+00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:15,870
+تلات دينار يبقى تفعل كيهمفالقاضي .. اه القاضي he
+
+92
+00:07:15,870 --> 00:07:19,830
+.. he was smart كان كتير ذكي وكان بنوفق الطرفين
+
+93
+00:07:19,830 --> 00:07:25,450
+فبعت لل .. لل bank قالهم I want to know how much
+
+94
+00:07:25,450 --> 00:07:29,490
+the three dinar in that time داك الوقت كده بيجيبوا
+
+95
+00:07:29,490 --> 00:07:33,830
+تتفاجأوا كده كانوا يجيبوا تلات دانير؟ في سنة و خمس
+
+96
+00:07:33,830 --> 00:07:37,710
+و ستين في سنة و خمس و ستين كانوا يجيبوا دلم في حي
+
+97
+00:07:37,710 --> 00:07:43,280
+زيتونفانا على طول اتصالت كومييته في bank of israel
+
+98
+00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:47,100
+لإن هم اللي عندهم ال .. او big discount bank
+
+99
+00:07:47,100 --> 00:07:50,920
+وعرفنا هالمعلومة هذه قيمتهم طبعا نخضن حولناها في
+
+100
+00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:55,920
+هداك الوجه نخضن تلقوا بهذا المبلغ فبعتنا للمحكمة
+
+101
+00:07:55,920 --> 00:08:00,120
+قلنا لهم هدول التلات دانير بتاعون زمان بيساوي
+
+102
+00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:04,560
+اليوم دولهم في حي الزيتونفلمّا بعتنا للمحكمة قال
+
+103
+00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,740
+okay we will let the husband know هنحكي مع الزوج
+
+104
+00:08:07,740 --> 00:08:10,820
+ونشوف طبعا اه he was very curious انا كنت كتير
+
+105
+00:08:10,820 --> 00:08:13,020
+فضولي to .. to .. to see what is the decision of
+
+106
+00:08:13,020 --> 00:08:16,200
+the court طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا ..
+
+107
+00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,000
+طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا ..
+
+108
+00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:22,580
+طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا ..
+
+109
+00:08:22,580 --> 00:08:28,260
+طبعا .. طبعا
+
+110
+00:08:28,260 --> 00:08:32,470
+.. طبيقولوا بدك تدفع تلاتين ألف دينار أردني، في
+
+111
+00:08:32,470 --> 00:08:34,790
+ذاك اليوم أنت كنت دافع .. كانت تسوى لإننا، تسوى
+
+112
+00:08:34,790 --> 00:08:37,750
+كمان لزوجنا؟ طبعا كانت تسوى في ذاك الوقت، ومزارة
+
+113
+00:08:37,750 --> 00:08:42,090
+بتسوى طبعا، فالتلات درانير في سنة الخمس وستين
+
+114
+00:08:42,090 --> 00:08:45,730
+بتساوي تلاتين ألف اليوم، في ذاك الوقت لما أنا
+
+115
+00:08:45,730 --> 00:08:49,410
+عملتلهم القرار، فمباشر القاضي بعت لهذا، قال له
+
+116
+00:08:49,410 --> 00:08:51,590
+okay if you want to get divorced you have to pay
+
+117
+00:08:51,590 --> 00:08:55,910
+thirty thousand dollar، thirty thousand dinar I
+
+118
+00:08:55,910 --> 00:08:58,270
+said no no no it's fine I'm okay I'm happy with
+
+119
+00:08:58,270 --> 00:09:03,390
+thisفهو إيش اتراجع عن قراره لأنه في دافع تلاتين
+
+120
+00:09:03,390 --> 00:09:08,210
+ألف دينار بس
+
+121
+00:09:08,210 --> 00:09:15,470
+هم بالهدف القاضي هدفه هو التوفيق مش هدفه .. فيريد
+
+122
+00:09:15,470 --> 00:09:19,190
+إصلاح يوفق الله بينهما يريد إصلاح .. مين يريد
+
+123
+00:09:19,190 --> 00:09:22,030
+إصلاح؟ مش الراجل و الأمرأة الفريق اللي بروح يصلح
+
+124
+00:09:22,030 --> 00:09:28,260
+فهذا مثال لو إحنا جيبنا تلات دنانينال nominal rate
+
+125
+00:09:28,260 --> 00:09:30,680
+nominal interest is the growth of your money هو
+
+126
+00:09:30,680 --> 00:09:34,920
+نمو في ال money okay يعني بالعربي بتكون بهذا الشكل
+
+127
+00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:40,400
+بتصير بهذا الشكل لكن بال national نخرع كتير لأنه
+
+128
+00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:46,280
+it doesn't mean this is greater than this مابيعنيش
+
+129
+00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:52,480
+هذا يعني معاناتلات معانا مثلا هذه الكتلة النقدية
+
+130
+00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:58,780
+انه اكبر من هذه النقدية كرقم اكبر as a value كقيمة
+
+131
+00:09:58,780 --> 00:10:03,020
+we will not know هذا اللي هنعمل so the nominal
+
+132
+00:10:03,020 --> 00:10:07,100
+interest rate is misleading the nominal rate of
+
+133
+00:10:07,100 --> 00:10:12,760
+return is misleading يعني بيعطيش مؤشر حقيقي لان
+
+134
+00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,520
+anyone when I give you three dollar and thirty
+
+135
+00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:19,950
+thousand dollaryou definitely say thirty thousand
+
+136
+00:10:19,950 --> 00:10:22,510
+dollar is greater than the three dollar this fine
+
+137
+00:10:22,510 --> 00:10:26,690
+okay but what what is the value of the three
+
+138
+00:10:26,690 --> 00:10:29,690
+dollar in that time and what is the value of the
+
+139
+00:10:29,690 --> 00:10:32,950
+thirty thousand dollar today قداش قيمة التلات
+
+140
+00:10:32,950 --> 00:10:35,430
+دولارات في هداك الواجت في هداك الواجت كنا نشتري
+
+141
+00:10:35,430 --> 00:10:42,230
+دولهم في حي الزيتون طبعا لو جيبنا تلات دنير اليوم
+
+142
+00:10:42,230 --> 00:10:46,700
+بيجيبوا إشي بيجيبوش إشيOkay so this is the idea
+
+143
+00:10:46,700 --> 00:10:51,080
+this is why it is important to consider the real
+
+144
+00:10:51,080 --> 00:11:00,320
+rate of return يعني سعر الفائض الحقيقي the
+
+145
+00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,560
+real interest rate the growth rate of your
+
+146
+00:11:03,560 --> 00:11:07,860
+purchasing power this is the real definition the
+
+147
+00:11:07,860 --> 00:11:10,740
+growth rate of your purchasing power purchasing
+
+148
+00:11:10,740 --> 00:11:15,390
+power هي قوة شرائية يعني عشان انا اقولالثلاث
+
+149
+00:11:15,390 --> 00:11:20,250
+ديانير تعون مهر المدام قبل تلاتين سنة او اربعين
+
+150
+00:11:20,250 --> 00:11:24,770
+سنة في هداك الوجد كانوا يجيبوا one denim في حي
+
+151
+00:11:24,770 --> 00:11:30,390
+الزيتون في هداك الوجد طبعا هذا .. هذا ال
+
+152
+00:11:30,390 --> 00:11:33,430
+purchasing power طب لو اجينا احنا التلاتة دينار
+
+153
+00:11:33,430 --> 00:11:37,490
+اليوم كداش بيجيبوا؟ بيجيبوا خمس عشر شكل okay
+
+154
+00:11:37,490 --> 00:11:42,050
+بيجيبوا اش هى؟ بيجيبوا نص متر؟ سانت بيجيبوا؟
+
+155
+00:11:42,050 --> 00:11:47,660
+وبالتالي هاي ..according to the nominal rates the
+
+156
+00:11:47,660 --> 00:11:51,800
+purchasing power decrease according to nominal
+
+157
+00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:56,540
+rates ال purchasing power هو الشراية تنخفض اذا
+
+158
+00:11:56,540 --> 00:12:00,940
+احنا عشان نخرج من الموضوع the real interest rates
+
+159
+00:12:00,940 --> 00:12:05,760
+growth rate of your purchasing power جداش احنا
+
+160
+00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:09,460
+بنشتري فعلا يعني بنيجي و نقول التلاتة دولار ايش
+
+161
+00:12:09,460 --> 00:12:14,070
+بيجيبوا و بنيجي التلاتة تلاف دولار ايش بيجيبواهذا
+
+162
+00:12:14,070 --> 00:12:16,470
+.. هذا ال .. هذا ال comparison هذا هو ال ..
+
+163
+00:12:16,470 --> 00:12:20,270
+المقارنة يعني تقولليش انا .. يعني انتوا روحوا على
+
+164
+00:12:20,270 --> 00:12:24,950
+مثلا على ال .. العراق تشتريوا مثلا تروحوا على مطعم
+
+165
+00:12:24,950 --> 00:12:29,010
+كبشة فلوس هيك لازم تحملوه معاكم روحوا على روسيا
+
+166
+00:12:29,010 --> 00:12:34,250
+نفس الشغل كبشة هيك بالعكس روحوا على اليابان يعني
+
+167
+00:12:34,250 --> 00:12:41,010
+باليابان يعني إشي بسيط طبعا قيمة تبعتهم قيمة كبيرة
+
+168
+00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,060
+يعني انتوا عشان تروحوا تعملوا كواجبة غدا في
+
+169
+00:12:44,060 --> 00:12:48,520
+اليابان يعني بتكلفكم 150.2 دولار طبعا الين
+
+170
+00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:51,900
+اليابانى قيمته عالى الين اليابانى قيمته عالية كتير
+
+171
+00:12:51,900 --> 00:12:55,700
+وبتسأل احنا هان ال purchasing power هي اللي بتحكم
+
+172
+00:12:55,700 --> 00:13:03,380
+يعني الدولار كدهش نقدر نشتري فيه كام نشتري how
+
+173
+00:13:03,380 --> 00:13:07,100
+many items هذا بيسميه purchasing power we are not
+
+174
+00:13:07,100 --> 00:13:12,150
+looking to dollar as a dollar نقدرش نقولone
+
+175
+00:13:12,150 --> 00:13:15,250
+hundred dollar is greater than one dollar this is
+
+176
+00:13:15,250 --> 00:13:18,410
+wrong نقدرش نقول مية دولار أكتر من دولار okay as a
+
+177
+00:13:18,410 --> 00:13:23,950
+number as a figure is fine كرقم صحيح لكن نيجي نسأل
+
+178
+00:13:23,950 --> 00:13:26,470
+جداش احنا بنشرب الدولار و جداش بنشرب ال one
+
+179
+00:13:26,470 --> 00:13:29,430
+hundred dollar هذا ال purchasing power اللي هي
+
+180
+00:13:29,430 --> 00:13:33,610
+التدخم او معكوس التدخم لأن كل ما ال purchasing
+
+181
+00:13:33,610 --> 00:13:40,150
+power بتقل كل ما قيمة العملة بتنقل تمامبيحلخل في
+
+182
+00:13:40,150 --> 00:13:42,610
+تفاصيل اللي هو ان هال بال economics بس بدي هيكوا
+
+183
+00:13:42,610 --> 00:13:46,390
+تفهموا الفرق بين ال nominal و بين ال real ال
+
+184
+00:13:46,390 --> 00:13:50,230
+nominal هي سعر الفائدة الاسمى او القيمة الاسمية
+
+185
+00:13:50,230 --> 00:13:57,210
+لنمو الكتلة النخدية قيمة اسمية لنمو القيمة النخدية
+
+186
+00:13:57,210 --> 00:14:02,690
+وهذا الحقية عادة generally speakingو هذا الممكن
+
+187
+00:14:02,690 --> 00:14:07,130
+انتوا مايكونيش متبهله general speaking the real
+
+188
+00:14:07,130 --> 00:14:13,370
+interest rate is less than the nominal okay و بكرا
+
+189
+00:14:13,370 --> 00:14:18,030
+بجيبكوا إياها بالامتحان you stop in this دائما اه
+
+190
+00:14:18,030 --> 00:14:22,910
+general speaking real is less than the nominal
+
+191
+00:14:22,910 --> 00:14:30,260
+دائما أقل دائما okay دائما أقل من ال nominalother
+
+192
+00:14:30,260 --> 00:14:35,620
+factors are equal يعني بقى ثبات الأوامر الأخرى طيب
+
+193
+00:14:35,620 --> 00:14:41,620
+let
+
+194
+00:14:41,620 --> 00:14:47,080
+R capital letter is equal to nominal بتساوي ال
+
+195
+00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:51,630
+nominal يعني ال nominal هو الإسمand R the small
+
+196
+00:14:51,630 --> 00:14:55,090
+one is real ليش عملناها small لأنه is less than
+
+197
+00:14:55,090 --> 00:14:59,430
+أقل لأن ال R الكبيرة great greater than the R
+
+198
+00:14:59,430 --> 00:15:03,930
+small عشان إنتوا if you get confused إذا إنتوا
+
+199
+00:15:03,930 --> 00:15:08,370
+تداخلت عليكم الأمور ال R real rate of return is
+
+200
+00:15:08,370 --> 00:15:13,870
+less than the R nominal فال R is greater than R
+
+201
+00:15:13,870 --> 00:15:17,030
+okay
+
+202
+00:15:17,030 --> 00:15:26,400
+R is the opposite of thisactually why real rate of
+
+203
+00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:30,240
+return is the inflation rate because of the
+
+204
+00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:38,680
+inflation rate okay so in this case R is equal R
+
+205
+00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:51,470
+ناقص plus I okay get confused يعني ال R هذهis
+
+206
+00:15:51,470 --> 00:16:02,250
+equal R plus the I تمام this is the case from
+
+207
+00:16:02,250 --> 00:16:04,830
+where the I is coming the interest rate of the 10
+
+208
+00:16:04,830 --> 00:16:06,730
+sorry the inflation rate
+
+209
+00:16:11,980 --> 00:16:23,480
+as I said R is up to .. R the small is equal R
+
+210
+00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:29,940
+minus I يعني زي اللي احنا حكينا هان R is equal R
+
+211
+00:16:29,940 --> 00:16:37,080
+plus I R is the nominal rate of return equal R is
+
+212
+00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:42,580
+the real plus I طب انا اذا بدي Rالناكسة بتساوي R
+
+213
+00:16:42,580 --> 00:16:49,720
+بتروح ال R هيك R minus I طبعا هاي مش exactly يعني
+
+214
+00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:55,080
+approximately تقريبا ليش approximately ليش احنا
+
+215
+00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:59,840
+حاطين اشوف ممكن
+
+216
+00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:04,540
+او لأ
+
+217
+00:17:04,540 --> 00:17:08,900
+في other factors في other reasonsتبات الأوامر
+
+218
+00:17:08,900 --> 00:17:12,660
+الأخرى بالظبط اتبعت لو لما حكيت ايش قلت other
+
+219
+00:17:12,660 --> 00:17:16,520
+factors are equal مع تبات الأوامر الأخرى ال
+
+220
+00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,960
+liquidity و ال maturity و الأمور هذه كلها لأن
+
+221
+00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,160
+there is other factors there are other factors
+
+222
+00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:27,630
+influence on the real rate of returnفي other
+
+223
+00:17:27,630 --> 00:17:31,910
+factors بتأثر على rate of return فاحنا بس ثبتنا
+
+224
+00:17:31,910 --> 00:17:35,030
+الأعوام الأخرى لما حطينا هذه approximately احنا
+
+225
+00:17:35,030 --> 00:17:38,030
+ثبتنا الأعوام الأخرى and we just consider the
+
+226
+00:17:38,030 --> 00:17:42,050
+inflation بس احنا عطرفنا بالinflation so in the
+
+227
+00:17:42,050 --> 00:17:44,690
+next step we will consider the taxation the step
+
+228
+00:17:44,690 --> 00:17:50,510
+after we will consider the maturity and so on now
+
+229
+00:17:50,510 --> 00:17:50,630
+R
+
+230
+00:17:58,990 --> 00:18:02,870
+is equal to R minus I which is this one why we
+
+231
+00:18:02,870 --> 00:18:08,510
+divided one plus I we divided by one plus I
+
+232
+00:18:08,510 --> 00:18:12,150
+because of the growth rates ده نخصهم لإن احنا
+
+233
+00:18:12,150 --> 00:18:16,950
+رجعنا لل تعريف
+
+234
+00:18:16,950 --> 00:18:20,690
+تبعنا قولنا إن ال real rate of return هو ال growth
+
+235
+00:18:20,690 --> 00:18:25,370
+في ال purchasing power so this is what we consider
+
+236
+00:18:25,370 --> 00:18:29,710
+the purchasing powerOkay we consider the
+
+237
+00:18:29,710 --> 00:18:32,990
+purchasing power this is one plus I is the
+
+238
+00:18:32,990 --> 00:18:40,450
+purchasing power So at the
+
+239
+00:18:40,450 --> 00:18:44,290
+end of the day R is equal the big R which is the
+
+240
+00:18:44,290 --> 00:18:48,410
+nominal minus the inflation one plus the inflation
+
+241
+00:18:54,340 --> 00:18:59,560
+ال purchasing power اه انت بتلاحظى ال R علاقتها
+
+242
+00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:04,360
+عكسية مع ال inflation طبعا يعني كل ما بتزيد ال
+
+243
+00:19:04,360 --> 00:19:11,780
+inflation ال real بتنخفض طبعا يعني خلينا نشوف
+
+244
+00:19:11,780 --> 00:19:17,880
+نعطيكوا مثال بسيط لو حكينا ال R ال big R is equal
+
+245
+00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:24,880
+fifteen percentو the small and I is equal to seven
+
+246
+00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:30,000
+percent calculate R approximately تدخلوش في
+
+247
+00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:34,900
+المعادلة هذه R كم؟ eight هتطلع R تسوي eight
+
+248
+00:19:34,900 --> 00:19:43,620
+percent طيب خلينا نزود ال Iخلّيها 9% فتشوفوا كل ما
+
+249
+00:19:43,620 --> 00:19:48,420
+احنا بنرفع ال I كل ما ال R بتنخفض فبنسموها إيش؟
+
+250
+00:19:48,420 --> 00:19:52,860
+there is a negative relationship between the real
+
+251
+00:19:52,860 --> 00:19:58,580
+R and the purchasing power يعني في علاقة عكسية أو
+
+252
+00:19:58,580 --> 00:20:01,660
+بين ال inflation كل ما احنا بنزيد ال inflation ال
+
+253
+00:20:01,660 --> 00:20:05,820
+real rate of return going down بتنخفض أو بتنزل
+
+254
+00:20:05,820 --> 00:20:07,080
+لأسفل okay
+
+255
+00:20:12,230 --> 00:20:18,810
+هذه Economics اقتصاد انتوا أخدتوا اقتصاد لأ public
+
+256
+00:20:18,810 --> 00:20:25,850
+finance في المالية العامة طيب again the
+
+257
+00:20:25,850 --> 00:20:29,730
+equilibrium real rate of interest اللي احنا
+
+258
+00:20:29,730 --> 00:20:32,490
+شرحنالكوا معاها المرة الفاتة بذلك اللي هو is
+
+259
+00:20:32,490 --> 00:20:35,870
+determined by supply and demand و احنا حينا هذا هو
+
+260
+00:20:35,870 --> 00:20:39,210
+ال demand و هذا هو supply وقلنا ال interest
+
+261
+00:20:39,210 --> 00:20:42,840
+equilibrium هي بتساويالعرض والطلب هذا
+
+262
+00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,580
+theoretically هذا نظريا لكن لما احنا نروح على ال
+
+263
+00:20:46,580 --> 00:20:51,360
+real life to somewhat the supply and demand
+
+264
+00:20:51,360 --> 00:20:54,880
+influence on the interest rate of return يعني هذا
+
+265
+00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,800
+بدرسوكوا يا في الجامعات احنا we are in the
+
+266
+00:20:56,800 --> 00:21:00,860
+university now but I'm talking from a practical
+
+267
+00:21:00,860 --> 00:21:06,180
+point of view من وجهة نظر practical and let's say
+
+268
+00:21:06,180 --> 00:21:09,130
+from the business point of viewهذا بتاخده في ال
+
+269
+00:21:09,130 --> 00:21:14,330
+MBA في ال master of business so in the MBA the
+
+270
+00:21:14,330 --> 00:21:17,910
+supply and demand is theoretically but in the real
+
+271
+00:21:17,910 --> 00:21:22,490
+life there are other factors influence on the real
+
+272
+00:21:22,490 --> 00:21:24,470
+rate of return in addition to the supply and
+
+273
+00:21:24,470 --> 00:21:30,450
+demand يعني في الواقع العملي في عوام الأخرى غير
+
+274
+00:21:30,450 --> 00:21:33,010
+supply and demand بتأثر على ال interest rate of
+
+275
+00:21:33,010 --> 00:21:39,200
+returnOkay يعني it is not absolutely right that
+
+276
+00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,040
+the supply and demand only influence on the real
+
+277
+00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,460
+rate of return لأ هذا ممكن بكتير بجيبه بصح و غلط و
+
+278
+00:21:46,460 --> 00:21:49,440
+correct و شغلات زي هيك مش ال supply and demand
+
+279
+00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:54,160
+لوحده يعني لأنه زي ما أنتوا شايفين supply and
+
+280
+00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,240
+demand one of these factors there are other
+
+281
+00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:01,400
+factors government actions and I explained it in
+
+282
+00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:05,050
+the previous meeting حكينا ال monetary policyو ال
+
+283
+00:22:05,050 --> 00:22:08,590
+financial policy مذاكرين؟ other factors مش supply
+
+284
+00:22:08,590 --> 00:22:12,710
+and demand ممكن احنا وجرنا case بال research انه
+
+285
+00:22:12,710 --> 00:22:16,370
+supply and demand fixed خليها fixed ثابتة ثبتناهم
+
+286
+00:22:16,370 --> 00:22:20,010
+supply and demand is fixed and let's consider the
+
+287
+00:22:20,010 --> 00:22:24,490
+change in other factors and we observe that when
+
+288
+00:22:24,490 --> 00:22:27,990
+we change in other factors we see the interest
+
+289
+00:22:27,990 --> 00:22:32,990
+rate change ثبتنا العرض والطلب
+
+290
+00:22:36,810 --> 00:22:42,150
+بنثبت العرض، فالفائدة تتغير، هي تطلع لتجاه تنزل، و
+
+291
+00:22:42,150 --> 00:22:45,270
+نفس العملية دي، بنتبت الفائدة .. الطلب .. طبعا ..
+
+292
+00:22:45,270 --> 00:22:50,470
+بنتبت العرض اللي هيتغير .. طب .. فممكن احنا نأثر
+
+293
+00:22:50,470 --> 00:22:54,570
+بطريقة معينة، يعني مثلا خلينا نعطيكي مثال، على
+
+294
+00:22:54,570 --> 00:22:57,750
+العرض والطلب، روحنا احنا ايش؟ ال investor
+
+295
+00:22:57,750 --> 00:23:01,230
+perceptions مش supply and demand، investor
+
+296
+00:23:01,230 --> 00:23:04,350
+perceptions، ال investor perceptions ممكن يتغير ال
+
+297
+00:23:04,350 --> 00:23:10,070
+interest rateال government actions ال government
+
+298
+00:23:10,070 --> 00:23:13,570
+حاسة ان الاستثمارات كتير بتزيد في البلد و هم لازم
+
+299
+00:23:13,570 --> 00:23:18,010
+يعملوا ايش؟ تهدئة يعني زي مثلا احنا نشوف قطار سريع
+
+300
+00:23:18,010 --> 00:23:22,590
+مش مصلحة الدولة يكون عندها نمو عالي جدا لإن انتوا
+
+301
+00:23:22,590 --> 00:23:26,350
+.. لما انتوا بتيجوا قطار سريع جدا و ممكن تصير
+
+302
+00:23:26,350 --> 00:23:31,770
+مشكلة بتقدروا توقفوا .. اه؟ بتقدروا توقفوا هذا
+
+303
+00:23:31,770 --> 00:23:37,080
+القطار؟ في فيلم كتيرفيلم American عمل عن unmanned
+
+304
+00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:45,480
+train unmanned اه unmanned trains هذا train طلع ال
+
+305
+00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:51,640
+.. unmanned يعني train بلا يقولوه رجل كل القصة كيف
+
+306
+00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,240
+يواجفه ال train فلو when the train is going fast
+
+307
+00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,480
+طبعا هاي ال economics بتدخل عنه when it's going
+
+308
+00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:03,180
+fast no one can stop it and may kill thousand
+
+309
+00:24:03,180 --> 00:24:07,200
+peopleلما الاشي يروح الاقتصاد ينمو بسرعة هتلاقي
+
+310
+00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,220
+كتير ناس فقراء و ناس محتاجين و ناس كذا كذا كذا
+
+311
+00:24:10,220 --> 00:24:14,220
+فبالتالي هذه مشكلة يعني don't think that the
+
+312
+00:24:14,220 --> 00:24:18,660
+highest growth in the economy is good for the
+
+313
+00:24:18,660 --> 00:24:21,900
+country لأ اذا كون في moderate عشان نعمل .. احنا
+
+314
+00:24:21,900 --> 00:24:26,240
+نقدر نعمل عليه control if you going fast you can
+
+315
+00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,240
+go down easily انتبه لل .. اذا بتطلعوا بسرعة
+
+316
+00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:34,900
+هتنزلوا بسرعةjust go relax okay take your time
+
+317
+00:24:34,900 --> 00:24:40,440
+بالاخير at the end of the day will go okay let's
+
+318
+00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,040
+see so as I mentioned before supply and demand
+
+319
+00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,140
+government actions expected rate of inflation
+
+320
+00:24:46,140 --> 00:24:50,840
+التوقع بتاع الinflation انشوف
+
+321
+00:25:13,790 --> 00:25:18,690
+لما بزيد ال demand ال interest rate هتزيد so ال
+
+322
+00:25:18,690 --> 00:25:23,360
+equilibrium will increaseفزي ما احنا شايفين equal
+
+323
+00:25:23,360 --> 00:25:26,920
+preamble rate of interest will go up مع احنا و
+
+324
+00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:34,160
+احنا ثبتنا ايش ثبتنا العرض ثبتنا العرض اتفضل ال
+
+325
+00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:38,160
+demand طلع شوف ال demand مش زاد لما احنا بننظر لما
+
+326
+00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:45,160
+يكون هيك شوف ال demand طلع من انتقل going up زي ما
+
+327
+00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:50,200
+قلتوا shifting to the right و لو نزل لو نزل مانتوش
+
+328
+00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:56,370
+فيهاإيش ال equilibrium صار؟ زاد ولا خفض؟ شو عرفك
+
+329
+00:25:56,370 --> 00:26:05,130
+زاد؟ هو أه، بيبين هيك، شفتي؟ فهو زاد و ال
+
+330
+00:26:05,130 --> 00:26:11,550
+equilibrium fund بزيد بزيد لأنه الفلوس كمان هتزيد
+
+331
+00:26:11,550 --> 00:26:13,670
+انتوا انظروا ال interest rate و ال equilibrium
+
+332
+00:26:13,670 --> 00:26:18,730
+fund طب لو كان العكس is the oppositeشوفوا العكس
+
+333
+00:26:18,730 --> 00:26:25,110
+العكس انه ال demand ينخفض فإذا كان ال demand انخفض
+
+334
+00:26:25,110 --> 00:26:30,950
+فإيش هيصير ال interest rate هتنخفض طبعا مع اعتبار
+
+335
+00:26:30,950 --> 00:26:35,750
+other factors are equal مع ثبات العوامل الأخرى
+
+336
+00:26:35,750 --> 00:26:42,930
+طبعا
+
+337
+00:26:42,930 --> 00:26:45,090
+طلعوا احنا جانب الأرض ال fund بزيد
+
+338
+00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,660
+جانب ال demand كل ما بزيد ال fund بزيد الطلب على
+
+339
+00:26:50,660 --> 00:26:54,340
+ال interest rate على هيك اعتبار لما اعطيتكوا مثال
+
+340
+00:26:54,340 --> 00:26:57,280
+لما يكون bank فلسطين عنده 100 دولار و طلب على 200
+
+341
+00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:01,500
+دولار فبضطر bank فلسطين انه making the price up
+
+342
+00:27:01,500 --> 00:27:04,780
+يرفع سعر الفائدة اذا كان الطلب اقل فبضطر انه ينزل
+
+343
+00:27:04,780 --> 00:27:13,440
+سعر الفائدة okay let's see hereif you go down just
+
+344
+00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,220
+picture this picture this you know what I mean
+
+345
+00:27:17,220 --> 00:27:20,660
+يعني صوروا الكلام هذا اتصورواه تخيلوا in detail by
+
+346
+00:27:20,660 --> 00:27:22,740
+supply and demand we talk about supply and demand
+
+347
+00:27:22,740 --> 00:27:26,720
+the government actions this is covered in public
+
+348
+00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:32,090
+finance or banking and moneyاللي هو بتتخطى في مادة
+
+349
+00:27:32,090 --> 00:27:36,650
+اسمها بنوق ونقود مركزية أو نقود و بنوق مركزية the
+
+350
+00:27:36,650 --> 00:27:39,710
+expected rate of inflation خليني أشوف the expected
+
+351
+00:27:39,710 --> 00:27:42,390
+rate of inflation how influence on this we talk
+
+352
+00:27:42,390 --> 00:27:46,930
+about supply and demand see as the inflation rate
+
+353
+00:27:46,930 --> 00:27:51,790
+increases كل ما زادت ال inflation rate investors
+
+354
+00:27:51,790 --> 00:27:56,150
+will demand higher nominal rates of return يعني كل
+
+355
+00:27:56,150 --> 00:28:02,030
+ما بزيد ال inflation التضخمبيصيروا investors بدهم
+
+356
+00:28:02,030 --> 00:28:07,670
+بيزيدوا ال nominal عشان يصير تعويض في ال rate of
+
+357
+00:28:07,670 --> 00:28:14,690
+return okay if e if ei donates for current
+
+358
+00:28:14,690 --> 00:28:20,130
+expectations of inflation اللي هو توقعنا على
+
+359
+00:28:20,130 --> 00:28:25,770
+التدخم يعني لو احنا توقعنا مثلا احنا معانا عندنا
+
+360
+00:28:25,770 --> 00:28:34,390
+استثمار بيجيب 10%انتوا في روسيا عايشين وين؟ في
+
+361
+00:28:34,390 --> 00:28:38,870
+روسيا وعندكوا استثمار واحد راح قال والله الاستثمار
+
+362
+00:28:38,870 --> 00:28:45,090
+في روسيا اشي مخيف بعمل مصاري كتير وانا okay اذا
+
+363
+00:28:45,090 --> 00:28:49,210
+انتوا في روسيا you think before the going to
+
+364
+00:28:49,210 --> 00:28:54,830
+Russia جمعت روحه ع روسيا 10% if you go to RussiaSo
+
+365
+00:28:54,830 --> 00:28:59,210
+in .. in .. in Russia the .. the inflation .. the
+
+366
+00:28:59,210 --> 00:29:03,370
+expected inflation let's say for instance 30% هه
+
+367
+00:29:03,370 --> 00:29:08,430
+هذا ال I ال I 30% what is the nominal rate of
+
+368
+00:29:08,430 --> 00:29:15,290
+return تتوقعوا؟ هينزيده لأنه هيكون 10% plus 30%
+
+369
+00:29:15,290 --> 00:29:20,010
+العشرة فمية زادت تلاتين فمية إذا ما زدناهوش هنخسر
+
+370
+00:29:20,870 --> 00:29:24,250
+إذا ما زدناش ال .. ال اول expectations هنخسر يعني
+
+371
+00:29:24,250 --> 00:29:29,290
+احنا اليوم جاعدين .. بنروح نستثمر بعشرة في المية و
+
+372
+00:29:29,290 --> 00:29:32,710
+لما روحنا ع روسيا لإنه في تدخن في روسيا، مظبوط ولا
+
+373
+00:29:32,710 --> 00:29:36,710
+لأ؟ التدخن بيوصل .. يعني كان في فترات بتعرف التدخن
+
+374
+00:29:36,710 --> 00:29:41,110
+يوصل ل 200% اه يعني ال 100 دولار تبقى .. أقولك
+
+375
+00:29:41,110 --> 00:29:46,470
+كمان شغلة؟ شغل أكتر، بتروح ع روسيا في مطعم، محطوش
+
+376
+00:29:46,470 --> 00:29:50,860
+ال .. ال menuال price تبقى اكتر بيحطوكي ال menu بس
+
+377
+00:29:50,860 --> 00:29:56,880
+بيحطوكيش ال price ليش؟ لأنه بتتغير كل ساعة ال
+
+378
+00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,260
+inflation rates اه بتتغير كل ساعة جاعد فإنه ممكن
+
+379
+00:30:00,260 --> 00:30:05,760
+أنت تدخل الواجبة يكون مثلا إيش العملة تبقى تروسيا؟
+
+380
+00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:11,220
+إيش عملت روسيا؟ رابل؟ أه رابل روبيا عملت إيش؟
+
+381
+00:30:11,220 --> 00:30:15,060
+الهند ف رابل اللي هو العملة عملت روسيا فأول ما
+
+382
+00:30:15,060 --> 00:30:20,830
+تدخل انتبتكون سعرة الواجبة طبعا رخيصة مش غالية سعر
+
+383
+00:30:20,830 --> 00:30:25,830
+الواجبة مثلا ten dollar سعر كام؟ ten dollar بتكون
+
+384
+00:30:25,830 --> 00:30:30,990
+انت okay يمكن لما تخلص تصير اتناشر دولار لأنه في
+
+385
+00:30:30,990 --> 00:30:37,250
+في inflation في تضخم ر denominator is equal to the
+
+386
+00:30:37,250 --> 00:30:40,650
+real rate of return or the real interest plus the
+
+387
+00:30:40,650 --> 00:30:43,630
+expectation of inflation or the expected inflation
+
+388
+00:30:43,630 --> 00:30:50,400
+المتوقعوحكينا كل ما هذه بتزيد بتأثر على هذه على ال
+
+389
+00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:56,180
+R ال small r اللي هو ال real real اه اذا حكينا على
+
+390
+00:30:56,180 --> 00:30:58,580
+ال inflation حكينا على supply and demand let's
+
+391
+00:30:58,580 --> 00:31:04,880
+talk about the taxation expected E is the expected
+
+392
+00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:13,600
+inflation ماشي أمل so the expected I
+
+393
+00:31:14,730 --> 00:31:20,350
+is important so if we think the expected rate of
+
+394
+00:31:20,350 --> 00:31:24,230
+.. the expected I will increase it means R will
+
+395
+00:31:24,230 --> 00:31:28,770
+increase طبعا ليش احنا ال R مابتأثرش هان ال small
+
+396
+00:31:28,770 --> 00:31:33,170
+r because R is a function of both هي .. هي علاقة
+
+397
+00:31:33,170 --> 00:31:37,390
+بين طرفين the nominal rate of return and the
+
+398
+00:31:37,390 --> 00:31:41,650
+expected inflation طبعا يعني هي بتأثر في ال
+
+399
+00:31:41,650 --> 00:31:47,930
+expected inflationنحكي عن ال taxes طبعا طلعوا على
+
+400
+00:31:47,930 --> 00:31:50,770
+الخريطة اللي احنا رسمناها أول ما جينا قولنا ال
+
+401
+00:31:50,770 --> 00:31:54,610
+real rate of return بتتأثر في ال I و في ال taxes و
+
+402
+00:31:54,610 --> 00:31:58,750
+في ال period او في ال maturity حكينا .. حكينا عن
+
+403
+00:31:58,750 --> 00:32:04,950
+ال I not any R not any R which R I'm talking now
+
+404
+00:32:04,950 --> 00:32:13,190
+real مش IR الحقيقية بالظبط ال tax تفضل
+
+405
+00:32:18,570 --> 00:32:23,050
+بتتناسب عكسي .. مش مع ال .. بتتناسب عكسي مع ال ..
+
+406
+00:32:23,050 --> 00:32:27,230
+مع ال push chasing و مع ال inflation اللي هو واحد
+
+407
+00:32:27,230 --> 00:32:27,710
+زائد I
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1ec4fb3e2ee140877192ca62b7215eed87c108ae
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo_raw.json
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6, "seek": 15847, "start": 145.01, "end": 158.47, "text": "يعني هذا التركيز سيكون اليوم okay just to remind you with the explanation of nominal rate", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 23758, 16712, 31747, 1829, 11622, 8608, 1829, 30544, 45595, 20498, 1392, 445, 281, 4160, 291, 365, 264, 10835, 295, 41641, 3314], "avg_logprob": -0.4121093874176343, "compression_ratio": 1.0462962962962963, "no_speech_prob": 4.76837158203125e-07, "words": [{"start": 145.01000000000002, "end": 145.93, "word": "يعني", "probability": 0.4523773193359375}, {"start": 145.93, "end": 146.17, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.9248046875}, {"start": 146.17, "end": 146.75, "word": " التركيز", "probability": 0.98681640625}, {"start": 146.75, "end": 147.33, "word": " سيكون", "probability": 0.6382242838541666}, {"start": 147.33, "end": 148.53, "word": " اليوم", "probability": 0.933837890625}, {"start": 148.53, "end": 148.99, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.22509765625}, {"start": 148.99, "end": 154.97, "word": " just", 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a figure is fine كرقم صحيح لكن نيجي نسأل جداش احنا بنشرب الدولار و جداش بنشرب ال one hundred dollar هذا ال purchasing power اللي هي التدخم او معكوس التدخم لأن كل ما ال purchasing power بتقل كل ما قيمة العملة بتنقل تمام", "tokens": [546, 3262, 7241, 307, 5044, 813, 472, 7241, 341, 307, 2085, 8717, 28543, 2288, 8592, 8717, 39648, 3714, 10632, 11778, 12610, 9640, 5551, 4117, 2655, 2288, 9154, 11778, 12610, 9640, 1392, 382, 257, 1230, 382, 257, 2573, 307, 2489, 9122, 2288, 4587, 2304, 20328, 5016, 1829, 5016, 44381, 8717, 1829, 7435, 1829, 8717, 3794, 10721, 1211, 10874, 3215, 33599, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 8592, 25513, 32748, 12610, 9640, 4032, 10874, 3215, 33599, 44945, 8592, 25513, 2423, 472, 3262, 7241, 23758, 2423, 20906, 1347, 13672, 1829, 39896, 16712, 3215, 9778, 2304, 1975, 2407, 20449, 4117, 41779, 16712, 3215, 9778, 2304, 5296, 33456, 28242, 19446, 2423, 20906, 1347, 39894, 4587, 1211, 28242, 19446, 12174, 32640, 3660, 18863, 2304, 37977, 39894, 1863, 4587, 1211, 46811, 10943], 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supply and demand لوحده يعني لأنه زي ما أنتوا شايفين supply and demand one of these factors there are other factors government actions and I explained it in the previous meeting حكينا ال monetary policy", "tokens": [8297, 37495, 22653, 309, 307, 406, 3122, 558, 300, 264, 5847, 293, 4733, 787, 6503, 322, 264, 957, 3314, 295, 2736, 5296, 10721, 23758, 3714, 43020, 4724, 4117, 2655, 13546, 4724, 7435, 1829, 3555, 3224, 4724, 9381, 5016, 4032, 32771, 1211, 9566, 4032, 3006, 4032, 13412, 17082, 1211, 9307, 30767, 1829, 39896, 4117, 37893, 2423, 5847, 293, 4733, 45164, 24401, 3224, 37495, 22653, 5296, 33456, 3224, 30767, 1829, 19446, 14739, 2655, 14407, 13412, 995, 33911, 9957, 5847, 293, 4733, 472, 295, 613, 6771, 456, 366, 661, 6771, 2463, 5909, 293, 286, 8825, 309, 294, 264, 3894, 3440, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 2423, 26388, 3897], "avg_logprob": -0.16011905329568046, "compression_ratio": 1.5818815331010454, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1295.12, "end": 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demand ممكن احنا وجرنا case بال research انه supply and demand fixed خليها fixed ثابتة ثبتناهم supply and demand is fixed and let's consider the change in other factors and we observe that when we change in other factors we see the interest rate change ثبتنا العرض والطلب", "tokens": [2407, 2423, 4669, 3897, 3714, 15730, 37983, 9957, 22807, 661, 6771, 37893, 5847, 293, 4733, 3714, 43020, 1975, 5016, 8315, 49610, 2288, 8315, 1389, 20666, 2132, 16472, 3224, 5847, 293, 4733, 6806, 16490, 20292, 11296, 6806, 38637, 16758, 2655, 3660, 38637, 3555, 2655, 8315, 16095, 5847, 293, 4733, 307, 6806, 293, 718, 311, 1949, 264, 1319, 294, 661, 6771, 293, 321, 11441, 300, 562, 321, 1319, 294, 661, 6771, 321, 536, 264, 1179, 3314, 1319, 38637, 3555, 2655, 8315, 18863, 43042, 16070, 9566, 46152], "avg_logprob": -0.20845588235294119, "compression_ratio": 1.688034188034188, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1324.77, "end": 1324.97, "word": "و", "probability": 0.94482421875}, 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the expected rate of inflation خليني أشوف the expected rate of inflation how influence on this we talk about supply and demand see as the inflation rate increases كل ما زادت ال inflation rate investors will demand higher nominal rates of return يعني كل ما بزيد ال inflation التضخم", "tokens": [6027, 20292, 31439, 39894, 2655, 9778, 9566, 7578, 8978, 3714, 18513, 3660, 24525, 2304, 11296, 44945, 30543, 4032, 1863, 4587, 23328, 3714, 31747, 11622, 10632, 34051, 8717, 4587, 23328, 4032, 44945, 30543, 3714, 31747, 11622, 10632, 264, 5176, 3314, 295, 15860, 16490, 1211, 9957, 1829, 5551, 8592, 38688, 264, 5176, 3314, 295, 15860, 577, 6503, 322, 341, 321, 751, 466, 5847, 293, 4733, 536, 382, 264, 15860, 3314, 8637, 28242, 19446, 30767, 18513, 2655, 2423, 15860, 3314, 11519, 486, 4733, 2946, 41641, 6846, 295, 2736, 37495, 22653, 28242, 19446, 4724, 11622, 25708, 2423, 15860, 16712, 11242, 9778, 2304], "avg_logprob": -0.1696654079538403, "compression_ratio": 1.7372549019607844, 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"language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 1949.31525, "duration_after_vad": 1854.0462499999953}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..fe8b60a1d09e85f5d56b8f04c330150a1ef0e094
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1636 @@
+1
+00:00:21,230 --> 00:00:25,690
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة
+
+2
+00:00:25,690 --> 00:00:28,430
+الفاتة كنا نحكي بال difference the main difference
+
+3
+00:00:28,430 --> 00:00:33,510
+between real rate of return and nominal rate اللي
+
+4
+00:00:33,510 --> 00:00:36,690
+هو السعر الفائده الحقيقي و السعر الفائده الإسمى
+
+5
+00:00:36,690 --> 00:00:43,450
+تمام؟ و اليوم بدنا نحكي بتفاصيل أكتر عن العوامل
+
+6
+00:00:43,450 --> 00:00:46,450
+بتأثر the factors influence on the nominal rate of
+
+7
+00:00:46,450 --> 00:00:50,280
+return and real rate of returnبنحكي عن عوامل يتأثر
+
+8
+00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,500
+على الأسعار الفائدة الحقية و الأسعار الفائدة
+
+9
+00:00:52,500 --> 00:00:55,820
+الإسمية أو ليش في فرق بين أسعار الفائدة الحقية و
+
+10
+00:00:55,820 --> 00:00:59,360
+الأسعار الفائدة الإسمية بس نذكركوا أن احنا المرة
+
+11
+00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:05,220
+الفاتة حكينا ان
+
+12
+00:01:05,220 --> 00:01:10,820
+ال real rate of return بتتأثر في ال inflation صح
+
+13
+00:01:10,820 --> 00:01:14,100
+هذا المرة الفاتة الحكينا و بتتأثر في other factors
+
+14
+00:01:14,100 --> 00:01:19,330
+كمان في factors أخرى ال liquidity و الاه احنا
+
+15
+00:01:19,330 --> 00:01:25,160
+اليوم هناخد تفاصيل اكترفي .. في العوامل اللي بتأثر
+
+16
+00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:28,880
+لأنه احنا في هذا المستوى مش هنقدر ت study all of
+
+17
+00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,380
+factors influence on the interest rate of Britain
+
+18
+00:01:31,380 --> 00:01:35,580
+مش هنقدر نغطي كل ال factors اللي بتأثر على ال
+
+19
+00:01:35,580 --> 00:01:40,140
+interest rate of Britain هن .. هنشوف مجموعة some
+
+20
+00:01:40,140 --> 00:01:44,900
+of factors has direct impact on the real rate of
+
+21
+00:01:44,900 --> 00:01:47,460
+Britain one of these factors as I mentioned before
+
+22
+00:01:47,460 --> 00:01:49,920
+واحدة من ال factors اللي زي ما انا حكيت المرة
+
+23
+00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,870
+الفاترة is the inflation rateother factors is the
+
+24
+00:01:53,870 --> 00:01:59,530
+taxation الدريبة is important other factors the
+
+25
+00:01:59,530 --> 00:02:05,770
+period as I say the maturity okay I explained this
+
+26
+00:02:05,770 --> 00:02:09,810
+before okay or this is called the period or the
+
+27
+00:02:09,810 --> 00:02:13,790
+holding period or the maturity we will focus on
+
+28
+00:02:13,790 --> 00:02:16,790
+these three factors and how these three factors
+
+29
+00:02:16,790 --> 00:02:19,590
+influence on the real
+
+30
+00:02:25,010 --> 00:02:34,970
+يعني هذا التركيز سيكون اليوم okay just
+
+31
+00:02:34,970 --> 00:02:38,470
+to remind you with the explanation of nominal rate
+
+32
+00:02:40,550 --> 00:02:43,470
+to differentiate between the real rate of return
+
+33
+00:02:43,470 --> 00:02:47,510
+and nominal rate just keep in your mind this
+
+34
+00:02:47,510 --> 00:02:53,230
+example when you pour some coke on this glass لما
+
+35
+00:02:53,230 --> 00:02:56,710
+احنا بحط شوية Coca Cola في ال glass فبصير فيها
+
+36
+00:02:56,710 --> 00:03:01,210
+ارتفاع عن حجمها الطبيعي but the reality of the
+
+37
+00:03:01,210 --> 00:03:04,590
+coke is like this لكن الوضع الحقيقي لل Coca Cola
+
+38
+00:03:04,590 --> 00:03:10,790
+هي بالجزء هذا بس هذا جزء ضبابي مش حقيقيفهذا الجزء
+
+39
+00:03:10,790 --> 00:03:16,050
+بنسميه nominal كله nominal okay وهذا البعض هو is
+
+40
+00:03:16,050 --> 00:03:21,490
+the real هذا هو ال real وهذا هو ال nominal okay
+
+41
+00:03:21,490 --> 00:03:25,750
+just to keep your mind that the real or the
+
+42
+00:03:25,750 --> 00:03:29,090
+effective rate of return is less than the nominal
+
+43
+00:03:29,090 --> 00:03:33,590
+rate of return يعني دائما بيكون أقل من ال real
+
+44
+00:03:33,590 --> 00:03:37,990
+rate of return nominal the definition of nominal
+
+45
+00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:45,400
+interest rate a growth rate of your money و هذا
+
+46
+00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:50,460
+تعريف a growth rate of your money يعني نمو في
+
+47
+00:03:50,460 --> 00:03:56,220
+الكتلة النخدية يعني مثلا واحد بيكون مع 100 شكل
+
+48
+00:03:56,220 --> 00:04:04,960
+بيصيروا مثلا 200 شكل is important هل هذا مهم يعني
+
+49
+00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:09,620
+is a difference between 200 شكل and 100 شكل yesbut
+
+50
+00:04:09,620 --> 00:04:11,680
+from the economic point of view sometimes there is
+
+51
+00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,660
+no difference from economic point of view يعني من
+
+52
+00:04:15,660 --> 00:04:18,640
+وجهة نظر اقتصادية مرات لأ خليني انا اعطيكوا مثال
+
+53
+00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:25,040
+خليني اعطيكوا مثال كان زمان و انتوا صغار أبوكوا
+
+54
+00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:29,100
+يعطوكوا أجورة عارفين الأجورة؟ مصروف، سفرة، لدياش
+
+55
+00:04:29,100 --> 00:04:32,420
+كان مصروفكوا زمان؟ زمان قبل .. انتوا يعني متوسط
+
+56
+00:04:32,420 --> 00:04:33,800
+أعماركوا سبعتاش و تمانتاش
+
+57
+00:04:37,780 --> 00:04:42,400
+أه لما كنا بالروضة، قداشر؟ نص شاكل شو كنت تشتري
+
+58
+00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:47,560
+بالنص شاكل؟ يعني
+
+59
+00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:53,940
+أكم شغلة، five items خلّيني أقول five items طيب،
+
+60
+00:04:53,940 --> 00:04:58,500
+انتبهوا، انتبهوا يعني هذا .. هذا good example to
+
+61
+00:04:58,500 --> 00:05:02,620
+understand the nominal rates هي growth of the ..
+
+62
+00:05:02,620 --> 00:05:07,260
+of the moneyأه بس خلينا .. اه اللي هو عنا growth
+
+63
+00:05:07,260 --> 00:05:13,300
+rate of your money هو زيادة أو نمو في .. في الكتلة
+
+64
+00:05:13,300 --> 00:05:18,020
+النقدية طيب، زي هالا النص شاكل هذه لو احنا بدنا
+
+65
+00:05:18,020 --> 00:05:21,160
+نرجع ل .. اليوم عشان تاخد قيمة النص شاكل كام
+
+66
+00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:25,760
+هتكون؟ خمس شاكل نفترض صح؟ ممكن تاخد خمس شاكل تشتري
+
+67
+00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:32,400
+نفس ال five items مظبوط؟ five شاكل اذا .. اذا ..
+
+68
+00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:36,680
+اذا it is not rightthat the two hundred is greater
+
+69
+00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:41,100
+than one hundred from economic point of view من
+
+70
+00:05:41,100 --> 00:05:44,080
+وجه نظر نقدية ممكن the two hundred the value of
+
+71
+00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,500
+two hundred is less than the value of one hundred
+
+72
+00:05:46,500 --> 00:05:54,080
+طب النص شاكل كانت بالأول يمكن نص شاكل is giving
+
+73
+00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:59,930
+you five itemsطب ال five شكل اليوم ممكن تجيب
+
+74
+00:05:59,930 --> 00:06:04,170
+similar five items, so in this case half شكل is
+
+75
+00:06:04,170 --> 00:06:07,290
+equal five شكل، النص شكل بتاع الزمال بتثور الخمسة
+
+76
+00:06:07,290 --> 00:06:09,550
+شكل بتاعت اليوم، مثال تاني
+
+77
+00:06:14,540 --> 00:06:17,780
+كان في واحد طبعا احنا بنحكي على ال .. كان كنت انا
+
+78
+00:06:17,780 --> 00:06:21,980
+أشتغل في bank of Palestine وكنت ال .. ال manager
+
+79
+00:06:21,980 --> 00:06:24,300
+تبع ال treasury departments اللي هو المدير الخزينة
+
+80
+00:06:24,300 --> 00:06:28,620
+فإجتنا case عشان تفهموا إيش ال .. كيف ال growth in
+
+81
+00:06:28,620 --> 00:06:31,260
+the .. on the money value إجتنا case من المحكمة
+
+82
+00:06:31,260 --> 00:06:37,460
+بيقول إنه بدنا نعرف قداش قيمة التلاتة ليرات أردنى
+
+83
+00:06:37,460 --> 00:06:43,740
+في ذاك الوقت تلات ليرات أردنى في سنة خمس وستينطبعا
+
+84
+00:06:43,740 --> 00:06:46,580
+كان في راجل و امرأة طبعا سبب ال case تجينا الحالة
+
+85
+00:06:46,580 --> 00:06:50,940
+يعني راجل و امرأة ماتجتلين مع بعض فيبدوا انه بيصير
+
+86
+00:06:50,940 --> 00:06:55,640
+مشاكل بناتهم فبدوا يروحوا يخلصوا يعني رجعوا لها
+
+87
+00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,620
+الشو بيسموه العفش البيت و المتأخر المؤخر طبعا
+
+88
+00:06:59,620 --> 00:07:03,580
+المؤخر تبعها تلاتة دينار كام؟ تلاتة دينار أردني في
+
+89
+00:07:03,580 --> 00:07:08,340
+سنة ال 65 فال مادام في ذاك الوقت كانت يعني ذكية
+
+90
+00:07:08,340 --> 00:07:10,840
+كتير فراحت وجهتلها المحكمة فالراجل تبعها جالها
+
+91
+00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:15,870
+تلات دينار يبقى تفعل كيهمفالقاضي .. اه القاضي he
+
+92
+00:07:15,870 --> 00:07:19,830
+.. he was smart كان كتير ذكي وكان بنوفق الطرفين
+
+93
+00:07:19,830 --> 00:07:25,450
+فبعت لل .. لل bank قالهم I want to know how much
+
+94
+00:07:25,450 --> 00:07:29,490
+the three dinar in that time داك الوقت كده بيجيبوا
+
+95
+00:07:29,490 --> 00:07:33,830
+تتفاجأوا كده كانوا يجيبوا تلات دانير؟ في سنة و خمس
+
+96
+00:07:33,830 --> 00:07:37,710
+و ستين في سنة و خمس و ستين كانوا يجيبوا دلم في حي
+
+97
+00:07:37,710 --> 00:07:43,280
+زيتونفانا على طول اتصالت كومييته في bank of israel
+
+98
+00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:47,100
+لإن هم اللي عندهم ال .. او big discount bank
+
+99
+00:07:47,100 --> 00:07:50,920
+وعرفنا هالمعلومة هذه قيمتهم طبعا نخضن حولناها في
+
+100
+00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:55,920
+هداك الوجه نخضن تلقوا بهذا المبلغ فبعتنا للمحكمة
+
+101
+00:07:55,920 --> 00:08:00,120
+قلنا لهم هدول التلات دانير بتاعون زمان بيساوي
+
+102
+00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:04,560
+اليوم دولهم في حي الزيتونفلمّا بعتنا للمحكمة قال
+
+103
+00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,740
+okay we will let the husband know هنحكي مع الزوج
+
+104
+00:08:07,740 --> 00:08:10,820
+ونشوف طبعا اه he was very curious انا كنت كتير
+
+105
+00:08:10,820 --> 00:08:13,020
+فضولي to .. to .. to see what is the decision of
+
+106
+00:08:13,020 --> 00:08:16,200
+the court طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا ..
+
+107
+00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:16,200
+طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا ..
+
+108
+00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:16,200
+طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا ..
+
+109
+00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,000
+طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا ..
+
+110
+00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:22,580
+طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا ..
+
+111
+00:08:22,580 --> 00:08:28,260
+طبعا .. طبعا
+
+112
+00:08:28,260 --> 00:08:32,470
+.. طبيقولوا بدك تدفع تلاتين ألف دينار أردني، في
+
+113
+00:08:32,470 --> 00:08:34,790
+ذاك اليوم أنت كنت دافع .. كانت تسوى لإننا، تسوى
+
+114
+00:08:34,790 --> 00:08:37,750
+كمان لزوجنا؟ طبعا كانت تسوى في ذاك الوقت، ومزارة
+
+115
+00:08:37,750 --> 00:08:42,090
+بتسوى طبعا، فالتلات درانير في سنة الخمس وستين
+
+116
+00:08:42,090 --> 00:08:45,730
+بتساوي تلاتين ألف اليوم، في ذاك الوقت لما أنا
+
+117
+00:08:45,730 --> 00:08:49,410
+عملتلهم القرار، فمباشر القاضي بعت لهذا، قال له
+
+118
+00:08:49,410 --> 00:08:51,590
+okay if you want to get divorced you have to pay
+
+119
+00:08:51,590 --> 00:08:55,910
+thirty thousand dollar، thirty thousand dinar I
+
+120
+00:08:55,910 --> 00:08:58,270
+said no no no it's fine I'm okay I'm happy with
+
+121
+00:08:58,270 --> 00:09:03,390
+thisفهو إيش اتراجع عن قراره لأنه في دافع تلاتين
+
+122
+00:09:03,390 --> 00:09:08,210
+ألف دينار بس
+
+123
+00:09:08,210 --> 00:09:15,470
+هم بالهدف القاضي هدفه هو التوفيق مش هدفه .. فيريد
+
+124
+00:09:15,470 --> 00:09:19,190
+إصلاح يوفق الله بينهما يريد إصلاح .. مين يريد
+
+125
+00:09:19,190 --> 00:09:22,030
+إصلاح؟ مش الراجل و الأمرأة الفريق اللي بروح يصلح
+
+126
+00:09:22,030 --> 00:09:28,260
+فهذا مثال لو إحنا جيبنا تلات دنانينال nominal rate
+
+127
+00:09:28,260 --> 00:09:30,680
+nominal interest is the growth of your money هو
+
+128
+00:09:30,680 --> 00:09:34,920
+نمو في ال money okay يعني بالعربي بتكون بهذا الشكل
+
+129
+00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:40,400
+بتصير بهذا الشكل لكن بال national نخرع كتير لأنه
+
+130
+00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:46,280
+it doesn't mean this is greater than this مابيعنيش
+
+131
+00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:52,480
+هذا يعني معاناتلات معانا مثلا هذه الكتلة النقدية
+
+132
+00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:58,780
+انه اكبر من هذه النقدية كرقم اكبر as a value كقيمة
+
+133
+00:09:58,780 --> 00:10:03,020
+we will not know هذا اللي هنعمل so the nominal
+
+134
+00:10:03,020 --> 00:10:07,100
+interest rate is misleading the nominal rate of
+
+135
+00:10:07,100 --> 00:10:12,760
+return is misleading يعني بيعطيش مؤشر حقيقي لان
+
+136
+00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,520
+anyone when I give you three dollar and thirty
+
+137
+00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:19,950
+thousand dollaryou definitely say thirty thousand
+
+138
+00:10:19,950 --> 00:10:22,510
+dollar is greater than the three dollar this fine
+
+139
+00:10:22,510 --> 00:10:26,690
+okay but what what is the value of the three
+
+140
+00:10:26,690 --> 00:10:29,690
+dollar in that time and what is the value of the
+
+141
+00:10:29,690 --> 00:10:32,950
+thirty thousand dollar today قداش قيمة التلات
+
+142
+00:10:32,950 --> 00:10:35,430
+دولارات في هداك الواجت في هداك الواجت كنا نشتري
+
+143
+00:10:35,430 --> 00:10:42,230
+دولهم في حي الزيتون طبعا لو جيبنا تلات دنير اليوم
+
+144
+00:10:42,230 --> 00:10:46,700
+بيجيبوا إشي بيجيبوش إشيOkay so this is the idea
+
+145
+00:10:46,700 --> 00:10:51,080
+this is why it is important to consider the real
+
+146
+00:10:51,080 --> 00:11:00,320
+rate of return يعني سعر الفائض الحقيقي the
+
+147
+00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,560
+real interest rate the growth rate of your
+
+148
+00:11:03,560 --> 00:11:07,860
+purchasing power this is the real definition the
+
+149
+00:11:07,860 --> 00:11:10,740
+growth rate of your purchasing power purchasing
+
+150
+00:11:10,740 --> 00:11:15,390
+power هي قوة شرائية يعني عشان انا اقولالثلاث
+
+151
+00:11:15,390 --> 00:11:20,250
+ديانير تعون مهر المدام قبل تلاتين سنة او اربعين
+
+152
+00:11:20,250 --> 00:11:24,770
+سنة في هداك الوجد كانوا يجيبوا one denim في حي
+
+153
+00:11:24,770 --> 00:11:30,390
+الزيتون في هداك الوجد طبعا هذا .. هذا ال
+
+154
+00:11:30,390 --> 00:11:33,430
+purchasing power طب لو اجينا احنا التلاتة دينار
+
+155
+00:11:33,430 --> 00:11:37,490
+اليوم كداش بيجيبوا؟ بيجيبوا خمس عشر شكل okay
+
+156
+00:11:37,490 --> 00:11:42,050
+بيجيبوا اش هى؟ بيجيبوا نص متر؟ سانت بيجيبوا؟
+
+157
+00:11:42,050 --> 00:11:47,660
+وبالتالي هاي ..according to the nominal rates the
+
+158
+00:11:47,660 --> 00:11:51,800
+purchasing power decrease according to nominal
+
+159
+00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:56,540
+rates ال purchasing power هو الشراية تنخفض اذا
+
+160
+00:11:56,540 --> 00:12:00,940
+احنا عشان نخرج من الموضوع the real interest rates
+
+161
+00:12:00,940 --> 00:12:05,760
+growth rate of your purchasing power جداش احنا
+
+162
+00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:09,460
+بنشتري فعلا يعني بنيجي و نقول التلاتة دولار ايش
+
+163
+00:12:09,460 --> 00:12:14,070
+بيجيبوا و بنيجي التلاتة تلاف دولار ايش بيجيبواهذا
+
+164
+00:12:14,070 --> 00:12:16,470
+.. هذا ال .. هذا ال comparison هذا هو ال ..
+
+165
+00:12:16,470 --> 00:12:20,270
+المقارنة يعني تقولليش انا .. يعني انتوا روحوا على
+
+166
+00:12:20,270 --> 00:12:24,950
+مثلا على ال .. العراق تشتريوا مثلا تروحوا على مطعم
+
+167
+00:12:24,950 --> 00:12:29,010
+كبشة فلوس هيك لازم تحملوه معاكم روحوا على روسيا
+
+168
+00:12:29,010 --> 00:12:34,250
+نفس الشغل كبشة هيك بالعكس روحوا على اليابان يعني
+
+169
+00:12:34,250 --> 00:12:41,010
+باليابان يعني إشي بسيط طبعا قيمة تبعتهم قيمة كبيرة
+
+170
+00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,060
+يعني انتوا عشان تروحوا تعملوا كواجبة غدا في
+
+171
+00:12:44,060 --> 00:12:48,520
+اليابان يعني بتكلفكم 150.2 دولار طبعا الين
+
+172
+00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:51,900
+اليابانى قيمته عالى الين اليابانى قيمته عالية كتير
+
+173
+00:12:51,900 --> 00:12:55,700
+وبتسأل احنا هان ال purchasing power هي اللي بتحكم
+
+174
+00:12:55,700 --> 00:13:03,380
+يعني الدولار كدهش نقدر نشتري فيه كام نشتري how
+
+175
+00:13:03,380 --> 00:13:07,100
+many items هذا بيسميه purchasing power we are not
+
+176
+00:13:07,100 --> 00:13:12,150
+looking to dollar as a dollar نقدرش نقولone
+
+177
+00:13:12,150 --> 00:13:15,250
+hundred dollar is greater than one dollar this is
+
+178
+00:13:15,250 --> 00:13:18,410
+wrong نقدرش نقول مية دولار أكتر من دولار okay as a
+
+179
+00:13:18,410 --> 00:13:23,950
+number as a figure is fine كرقم صحيح لكن نيجي نسأل
+
+180
+00:13:23,950 --> 00:13:26,470
+جداش احنا بنشرب الدولار و جداش بنشرب ال one
+
+181
+00:13:26,470 --> 00:13:29,430
+hundred dollar هذا ال purchasing power اللي هي
+
+182
+00:13:29,430 --> 00:13:33,610
+التدخم او معكوس التدخم لأن كل ما ال purchasing
+
+183
+00:13:33,610 --> 00:13:40,150
+power بتقل كل ما قيمة العملة بتنقل تمامبيحلخل في
+
+184
+00:13:40,150 --> 00:13:42,610
+تفاصيل اللي هو ان هال بال economics بس بدي هيكوا
+
+185
+00:13:42,610 --> 00:13:46,390
+تفهموا الفرق بين ال nominal و بين ال real ال
+
+186
+00:13:46,390 --> 00:13:50,230
+nominal هي سعر الفائدة الاسمى او القيمة الاسمية
+
+187
+00:13:50,230 --> 00:13:57,210
+لنمو الكتلة النخدية قيمة اسمية لنمو القيمة النخدية
+
+188
+00:13:57,210 --> 00:14:02,690
+وهذا الحقية عادة generally speakingو هذا الممكن
+
+189
+00:14:02,690 --> 00:14:07,130
+انتوا مايكونيش متبهله general speaking the real
+
+190
+00:14:07,130 --> 00:14:13,370
+interest rate is less than the nominal okay و بكرا
+
+191
+00:14:13,370 --> 00:14:18,030
+بجيبكوا إياها بالامتحان you stop in this دائما اه
+
+192
+00:14:18,030 --> 00:14:22,910
+general speaking real is less than the nominal
+
+193
+00:14:22,910 --> 00:14:30,260
+دائما أقل دائما okay دائما أقل من ال nominalother
+
+194
+00:14:30,260 --> 00:14:35,620
+factors are equal يعني بقى ثبات الأوامر الأخرى طيب
+
+195
+00:14:35,620 --> 00:14:41,620
+let
+
+196
+00:14:41,620 --> 00:14:47,080
+R capital letter is equal to nominal بتساوي ال
+
+197
+00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:51,630
+nominal يعني ال nominal هو الإسمand R the small
+
+198
+00:14:51,630 --> 00:14:55,090
+one is real ليش عملناها small لأنه is less than
+
+199
+00:14:55,090 --> 00:14:59,430
+أقل لأن ال R الكبيرة great greater than the R
+
+200
+00:14:59,430 --> 00:15:03,930
+small عشان إنتوا if you get confused إذا إنتوا
+
+201
+00:15:03,930 --> 00:15:08,370
+تداخلت عليكم الأمور ال R real rate of return is
+
+202
+00:15:08,370 --> 00:15:13,870
+less than the R nominal فال R is greater than R
+
+203
+00:15:13,870 --> 00:15:17,030
+okay
+
+204
+00:15:17,030 --> 00:15:26,400
+R is the opposite of thisactually why real rate of
+
+205
+00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:30,240
+return is the inflation rate because of the
+
+206
+00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:38,680
+inflation rate okay so in this case R is equal R
+
+207
+00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:51,470
+ناقص plus I okay get confused يعني ال R هذهis
+
+208
+00:15:51,470 --> 00:16:02,250
+equal R plus the I تمام this is the case from
+
+209
+00:16:02,250 --> 00:16:04,830
+where the I is coming the interest rate of the 10
+
+210
+00:16:04,830 --> 00:16:06,730
+sorry the inflation rate
+
+211
+00:16:11,980 --> 00:16:23,480
+as I said R is up to .. R the small is equal R
+
+212
+00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:29,940
+minus I يعني زي اللي احنا حكينا هان R is equal R
+
+213
+00:16:29,940 --> 00:16:37,080
+plus I R is the nominal rate of return equal R is
+
+214
+00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:42,580
+the real plus I طب انا اذا بدي Rالناكسة بتساوي R
+
+215
+00:16:42,580 --> 00:16:49,720
+بتروح ال R هيك R minus I طبعا هاي مش exactly يعني
+
+216
+00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:55,080
+approximately تقريبا ليش approximately ليش احنا
+
+217
+00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:59,840
+حاطين اشوف ممكن
+
+218
+00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:04,540
+او لأ
+
+219
+00:17:04,540 --> 00:17:08,900
+في other factors في other reasonsتبات الأوامر
+
+220
+00:17:08,900 --> 00:17:12,660
+الأخرى بالظبط اتبعت لو لما حكيت ايش قلت other
+
+221
+00:17:12,660 --> 00:17:16,520
+factors are equal مع تبات الأوامر الأخرى ال
+
+222
+00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,960
+liquidity و ال maturity و الأمور هذه كلها لأن
+
+223
+00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,160
+there is other factors there are other factors
+
+224
+00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:27,630
+influence on the real rate of returnفي other
+
+225
+00:17:27,630 --> 00:17:31,910
+factors بتأثر على rate of return فاحنا بس ثبتنا
+
+226
+00:17:31,910 --> 00:17:35,030
+الأعوام الأخرى لما حطينا هذه approximately احنا
+
+227
+00:17:35,030 --> 00:17:38,030
+ثبتنا الأعوام الأخرى and we just consider the
+
+228
+00:17:38,030 --> 00:17:42,050
+inflation بس احنا عطرفنا بالinflation so in the
+
+229
+00:17:42,050 --> 00:17:44,690
+next step we will consider the taxation the step
+
+230
+00:17:44,690 --> 00:17:50,510
+after we will consider the maturity and so on now
+
+231
+00:17:50,510 --> 00:17:50,630
+R
+
+232
+00:17:58,990 --> 00:18:02,870
+is equal to R minus I which is this one why we
+
+233
+00:18:02,870 --> 00:18:08,510
+divided one plus I we divided by one plus I
+
+234
+00:18:08,510 --> 00:18:12,150
+because of the growth rates ده نخصهم لإن احنا
+
+235
+00:18:12,150 --> 00:18:16,950
+رجعنا لل تعريف
+
+236
+00:18:16,950 --> 00:18:20,690
+تبعنا قولنا إن ال real rate of return هو ال growth
+
+237
+00:18:20,690 --> 00:18:25,370
+في ال purchasing power so this is what we consider
+
+238
+00:18:25,370 --> 00:18:29,710
+the purchasing powerOkay we consider the
+
+239
+00:18:29,710 --> 00:18:32,990
+purchasing power this is one plus I is the
+
+240
+00:18:32,990 --> 00:18:40,450
+purchasing power So at the
+
+241
+00:18:40,450 --> 00:18:44,290
+end of the day R is equal the big R which is the
+
+242
+00:18:44,290 --> 00:18:48,410
+nominal minus the inflation one plus the inflation
+
+243
+00:18:54,340 --> 00:18:59,560
+ال purchasing power اه انت بتلاحظى ال R علاقتها
+
+244
+00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:04,360
+عكسية مع ال inflation طبعا يعني كل ما بتزيد ال
+
+245
+00:19:04,360 --> 00:19:11,780
+inflation ال real بتنخفض طبعا يعني خلينا نشوف
+
+246
+00:19:11,780 --> 00:19:17,880
+نعطيكوا مثال بسيط لو حكينا ال R ال big R is equal
+
+247
+00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:24,880
+fifteen percentو the small and I is equal to seven
+
+248
+00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:30,000
+percent calculate R approximately تدخلوش في
+
+249
+00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:34,900
+المعادلة هذه R كم؟ eight هتطلع R تسوي eight
+
+250
+00:19:34,900 --> 00:19:43,620
+percent طيب خلينا نزود ال Iخلّيها 9% فتشوفوا كل ما
+
+251
+00:19:43,620 --> 00:19:48,420
+احنا بنرفع ال I كل ما ال R بتنخفض فبنسموها إيش؟
+
+252
+00:19:48,420 --> 00:19:52,860
+there is a negative relationship between the real
+
+253
+00:19:52,860 --> 00:19:58,580
+R and the purchasing power يعني في علاقة عكسية أو
+
+254
+00:19:58,580 --> 00:20:01,660
+بين ال inflation كل ما احنا بنزيد ال inflation ال
+
+255
+00:20:01,660 --> 00:20:05,820
+real rate of return going down بتنخفض أو بتنزل
+
+256
+00:20:05,820 --> 00:20:07,080
+لأسفل okay
+
+257
+00:20:12,230 --> 00:20:18,810
+هذه Economics اقتصاد انتوا أخدتوا اقتصاد لأ public
+
+258
+00:20:18,810 --> 00:20:25,850
+finance في المالية العامة طيب again the
+
+259
+00:20:25,850 --> 00:20:29,730
+equilibrium real rate of interest اللي احنا
+
+260
+00:20:29,730 --> 00:20:32,490
+شرحنالكوا معاها المرة الفاتة بذلك اللي هو is
+
+261
+00:20:32,490 --> 00:20:35,870
+determined by supply and demand و احنا حينا هذا هو
+
+262
+00:20:35,870 --> 00:20:39,210
+ال demand و هذا هو supply وقلنا ال interest
+
+263
+00:20:39,210 --> 00:20:42,840
+equilibrium هي بتساويالعرض والطلب هذا
+
+264
+00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,580
+theoretically هذا نظريا لكن لما احنا نروح على ال
+
+265
+00:20:46,580 --> 00:20:51,360
+real life to somewhat the supply and demand
+
+266
+00:20:51,360 --> 00:20:54,880
+influence on the interest rate of return يعني هذا
+
+267
+00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,800
+بدرسوكوا يا في الجامعات احنا we are in the
+
+268
+00:20:56,800 --> 00:21:00,860
+university now but I'm talking from a practical
+
+269
+00:21:00,860 --> 00:21:06,180
+point of view من وجهة نظر practical and let's say
+
+270
+00:21:06,180 --> 00:21:09,130
+from the business point of viewهذا بتاخده في ال
+
+271
+00:21:09,130 --> 00:21:14,330
+MBA في ال master of business so in the MBA the
+
+272
+00:21:14,330 --> 00:21:17,910
+supply and demand is theoretically but in the real
+
+273
+00:21:17,910 --> 00:21:22,490
+life there are other factors influence on the real
+
+274
+00:21:22,490 --> 00:21:24,470
+rate of return in addition to the supply and
+
+275
+00:21:24,470 --> 00:21:30,450
+demand يعني في الواقع العملي في عوام الأخرى غير
+
+276
+00:21:30,450 --> 00:21:33,010
+supply and demand بتأثر على ال interest rate of
+
+277
+00:21:33,010 --> 00:21:39,200
+returnOkay يعني it is not absolutely right that
+
+278
+00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,040
+the supply and demand only influence on the real
+
+279
+00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,460
+rate of return لأ هذا ممكن بكتير بجيبه بصح و غلط و
+
+280
+00:21:46,460 --> 00:21:49,440
+correct و شغلات زي هيك مش ال supply and demand
+
+281
+00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:54,160
+لوحده يعني لأنه زي ما أنتوا شايفين supply and
+
+282
+00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,240
+demand one of these factors there are other
+
+283
+00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:01,400
+factors government actions and I explained it in
+
+284
+00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:05,050
+the previous meeting حكينا ال monetary policyو ال
+
+285
+00:22:05,050 --> 00:22:08,590
+financial policy مذاكرين؟ other factors مش supply
+
+286
+00:22:08,590 --> 00:22:12,710
+and demand ممكن احنا وجرنا case بال research انه
+
+287
+00:22:12,710 --> 00:22:16,370
+supply and demand fixed خليها fixed ثابتة ثبتناهم
+
+288
+00:22:16,370 --> 00:22:20,010
+supply and demand is fixed and let's consider the
+
+289
+00:22:20,010 --> 00:22:24,490
+change in other factors and we observe that when
+
+290
+00:22:24,490 --> 00:22:27,990
+we change in other factors we see the interest
+
+291
+00:22:27,990 --> 00:22:32,990
+rate change ثبتنا العرض والطلب
+
+292
+00:22:36,810 --> 00:22:42,150
+بنثبت العرض، فالفائدة تتغير، هي تطلع لتجاه تنزل، و
+
+293
+00:22:42,150 --> 00:22:45,270
+نفس العملية دي، بنتبت الفائدة .. الطلب .. طبعا ..
+
+294
+00:22:45,270 --> 00:22:50,470
+بنتبت العرض اللي هيتغير .. طب .. فممكن احنا نأثر
+
+295
+00:22:50,470 --> 00:22:54,570
+بطريقة معينة، يعني مثلا خلينا نعطيكي مثال، على
+
+296
+00:22:54,570 --> 00:22:57,750
+العرض والطلب، روحنا احنا ايش؟ ال investor
+
+297
+00:22:57,750 --> 00:23:01,230
+perceptions مش supply and demand، investor
+
+298
+00:23:01,230 --> 00:23:04,350
+perceptions، ال investor perceptions ممكن يتغير ال
+
+299
+00:23:04,350 --> 00:23:10,070
+interest rateال government actions ال government
+
+300
+00:23:10,070 --> 00:23:13,570
+حاسة ان الاستثمارات كتير بتزيد في البلد و هم لازم
+
+301
+00:23:13,570 --> 00:23:18,010
+يعملوا ايش؟ تهدئة يعني زي مثلا احنا نشوف قطار سريع
+
+302
+00:23:18,010 --> 00:23:22,590
+مش مصلحة الدولة يكون عندها نمو عالي جدا لإن انتوا
+
+303
+00:23:22,590 --> 00:23:26,350
+.. لما انتوا بتيجوا قطار سريع جدا و ممكن تصير
+
+304
+00:23:26,350 --> 00:23:31,770
+مشكلة بتقدروا توقفوا .. اه؟ بتقدروا توقفوا هذا
+
+305
+00:23:31,770 --> 00:23:37,080
+القطار؟ في فيلم كتيرفيلم American عمل عن unmanned
+
+306
+00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:45,480
+train unmanned اه unmanned trains هذا train طلع ال
+
+307
+00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:51,640
+.. unmanned يعني train بلا يقولوه رجل كل القصة كيف
+
+308
+00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,240
+يواجفه ال train فلو when the train is going fast
+
+309
+00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,480
+طبعا هاي ال economics بتدخل عنه when it's going
+
+310
+00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:03,180
+fast no one can stop it and may kill thousand
+
+311
+00:24:03,180 --> 00:24:07,200
+peopleلما الاشي يروح الاقتصاد ينمو بسرعة هتلاقي
+
+312
+00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,220
+كتير ناس فقراء و ناس محتاجين و ناس كذا كذا كذا
+
+313
+00:24:10,220 --> 00:24:14,220
+فبالتالي هذه مشكلة يعني don't think that the
+
+314
+00:24:14,220 --> 00:24:18,660
+highest growth in the economy is good for the
+
+315
+00:24:18,660 --> 00:24:21,900
+country لأ اذا كون في moderate عشان نعمل .. احنا
+
+316
+00:24:21,900 --> 00:24:26,240
+نقدر نعمل عليه control if you going fast you can
+
+317
+00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,240
+go down easily انتبه لل .. اذا بتطلعوا بسرعة
+
+318
+00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:34,900
+هتنزلوا بسرعةjust go relax okay take your time
+
+319
+00:24:34,900 --> 00:24:40,440
+بالاخير at the end of the day will go okay let's
+
+320
+00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,040
+see so as I mentioned before supply and demand
+
+321
+00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,140
+government actions expected rate of inflation
+
+322
+00:24:46,140 --> 00:24:50,840
+التوقع بتاع الinflation انشوف
+
+323
+00:25:13,790 --> 00:25:18,690
+لما بزيد ال demand ال interest rate هتزيد so ال
+
+324
+00:25:18,690 --> 00:25:23,360
+equilibrium will increaseفزي ما احنا شايفين equal
+
+325
+00:25:23,360 --> 00:25:26,920
+preamble rate of interest will go up مع احنا و
+
+326
+00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:34,160
+احنا ثبتنا ايش ثبتنا العرض ثبتنا العرض اتفضل ال
+
+327
+00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:38,160
+demand طلع شوف ال demand مش زاد لما احنا بننظر لما
+
+328
+00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:45,160
+يكون هيك شوف ال demand طلع من انتقل going up زي ما
+
+329
+00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:50,200
+قلتوا shifting to the right و لو نزل لو نزل مانتوش
+
+330
+00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:56,370
+فيهاإيش ال equilibrium صار؟ زاد ولا خفض؟ شو عرفك
+
+331
+00:25:56,370 --> 00:26:05,130
+زاد؟ هو أه، بيبين هيك، شفتي؟ فهو زاد و ال
+
+332
+00:26:05,130 --> 00:26:11,550
+equilibrium fund بزيد بزيد لأنه الفلوس كمان هتزيد
+
+333
+00:26:11,550 --> 00:26:13,670
+انتوا انظروا ال interest rate و ال equilibrium
+
+334
+00:26:13,670 --> 00:26:18,730
+fund طب لو كان العكس is the oppositeشوفوا العكس
+
+335
+00:26:18,730 --> 00:26:25,110
+العكس انه ال demand ينخفض فإذا كان ال demand انخفض
+
+336
+00:26:25,110 --> 00:26:30,950
+فإيش هيصير ال interest rate هتنخفض طبعا مع اعتبار
+
+337
+00:26:30,950 --> 00:26:35,750
+other factors are equal مع ثبات العوامل الأخرى
+
+338
+00:26:35,750 --> 00:26:42,930
+طبعا
+
+339
+00:26:42,930 --> 00:26:45,090
+طلعوا احنا جانب الأرض ال fund بزيد
+
+340
+00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,660
+جانب ال demand كل ما بزيد ال fund بزيد الطلب على
+
+341
+00:26:50,660 --> 00:26:54,340
+ال interest rate على هيك اعتبار لما اعطيتكوا مثال
+
+342
+00:26:54,340 --> 00:26:57,280
+لما يكون bank فلسطين عنده 100 دولار و طلب على 200
+
+343
+00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:01,500
+دولار فبضطر bank فلسطين انه making the price up
+
+344
+00:27:01,500 --> 00:27:04,780
+يرفع سعر الفائدة اذا كان الطلب اقل فبضطر انه ينزل
+
+345
+00:27:04,780 --> 00:27:13,440
+سعر الفائدة okay let's see hereif you go down just
+
+346
+00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,220
+picture this picture this you know what I mean
+
+347
+00:27:17,220 --> 00:27:20,660
+يعني صوروا الكلام هذا اتصورواه تخيلوا in detail by
+
+348
+00:27:20,660 --> 00:27:22,740
+supply and demand we talk about supply and demand
+
+349
+00:27:22,740 --> 00:27:26,720
+the government actions this is covered in public
+
+350
+00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:32,090
+finance or banking and moneyاللي هو بتتخطى في مادة
+
+351
+00:27:32,090 --> 00:27:36,650
+اسمها بنوق ونقود مركزية أو نقود و بنوق مركزية the
+
+352
+00:27:36,650 --> 00:27:39,710
+expected rate of inflation خليني أشوف the expected
+
+353
+00:27:39,710 --> 00:27:42,390
+rate of inflation how influence on this we talk
+
+354
+00:27:42,390 --> 00:27:46,930
+about supply and demand see as the inflation rate
+
+355
+00:27:46,930 --> 00:27:51,790
+increases كل ما زادت ال inflation rate investors
+
+356
+00:27:51,790 --> 00:27:56,150
+will demand higher nominal rates of return يعني كل
+
+357
+00:27:56,150 --> 00:28:02,030
+ما بزيد ال inflation التضخمبيصيروا investors بدهم
+
+358
+00:28:02,030 --> 00:28:07,670
+بيزيدوا ال nominal عشان يصير تعويض في ال rate of
+
+359
+00:28:07,670 --> 00:28:14,690
+return okay if e if ei donates for current
+
+360
+00:28:14,690 --> 00:28:20,130
+expectations of inflation اللي هو توقعنا على
+
+361
+00:28:20,130 --> 00:28:25,770
+التدخم يعني لو احنا توقعنا مثلا احنا معانا عندنا
+
+362
+00:28:25,770 --> 00:28:34,390
+استثمار بيجيب 10%انتوا في روسيا عايشين وين؟ في
+
+363
+00:28:34,390 --> 00:28:38,870
+روسيا وعندكوا استثمار واحد راح قال والله الاستثمار
+
+364
+00:28:38,870 --> 00:28:45,090
+في روسيا اشي مخيف بعمل مصاري كتير وانا okay اذا
+
+365
+00:28:45,090 --> 00:28:49,210
+انتوا في روسيا you think before the going to
+
+366
+00:28:49,210 --> 00:28:54,830
+Russia جمعت روحه ع روسيا 10% if you go to RussiaSo
+
+367
+00:28:54,830 --> 00:28:59,210
+in .. in .. in Russia the .. the inflation .. the
+
+368
+00:28:59,210 --> 00:29:03,370
+expected inflation let's say for instance 30% هه
+
+369
+00:29:03,370 --> 00:29:08,430
+هذا ال I ال I 30% what is the nominal rate of
+
+370
+00:29:08,430 --> 00:29:15,290
+return تتوقعوا؟ هينزيده لأنه هيكون 10% plus 30%
+
+371
+00:29:15,290 --> 00:29:20,010
+العشرة فمية زادت تلاتين فمية إذا ما زدناهوش هنخسر
+
+372
+00:29:20,870 --> 00:29:24,250
+إذا ما زدناش ال .. ال اول expectations هنخسر يعني
+
+373
+00:29:24,250 --> 00:29:29,290
+احنا اليوم جاعدين .. بنروح نستثمر بعشرة في المية و
+
+374
+00:29:29,290 --> 00:29:32,710
+لما روحنا ع روسيا لإنه في تدخن في روسيا، مظبوط ولا
+
+375
+00:29:32,710 --> 00:29:36,710
+لأ؟ التدخن بيوصل .. يعني كان في فترات بتعرف التدخن
+
+376
+00:29:36,710 --> 00:29:41,110
+يوصل ل 200% اه يعني ال 100 دولار تبقى .. أقولك
+
+377
+00:29:41,110 --> 00:29:46,470
+كمان شغلة؟ شغل أكتر، بتروح ع روسيا في مطعم، محطوش
+
+378
+00:29:46,470 --> 00:29:50,860
+ال .. ال menuال price تبقى اكتر بيحطوكي ال menu بس
+
+379
+00:29:50,860 --> 00:29:56,880
+بيحطوكيش ال price ليش؟ لأنه بتتغير كل ساعة ال
+
+380
+00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,260
+inflation rates اه بتتغير كل ساعة جاعد فإنه ممكن
+
+381
+00:30:00,260 --> 00:30:05,760
+أنت تدخل الواجبة يكون مثلا إيش العملة تبقى تروسيا؟
+
+382
+00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:11,220
+إيش عملت روسيا؟ رابل؟ أه رابل روبيا عملت إيش؟
+
+383
+00:30:11,220 --> 00:30:15,060
+الهند ف رابل اللي هو العملة عملت روسيا فأول ما
+
+384
+00:30:15,060 --> 00:30:20,830
+تدخل انتبتكون سعرة الواجبة طبعا رخيصة مش غالية سعر
+
+385
+00:30:20,830 --> 00:30:25,830
+الواجبة مثلا ten dollar سعر كام؟ ten dollar بتكون
+
+386
+00:30:25,830 --> 00:30:30,990
+انت okay يمكن لما تخلص تصير اتناشر دولار لأنه في
+
+387
+00:30:30,990 --> 00:30:37,250
+في inflation في تضخم ر denominator is equal to the
+
+388
+00:30:37,250 --> 00:30:40,650
+real rate of return or the real interest plus the
+
+389
+00:30:40,650 --> 00:30:43,630
+expectation of inflation or the expected inflation
+
+390
+00:30:43,630 --> 00:30:50,400
+المتوقعوحكينا كل ما هذه بتزيد بتأثر على هذه على ال
+
+391
+00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:56,180
+R ال small r اللي هو ال real real اه اذا حكينا على
+
+392
+00:30:56,180 --> 00:30:58,580
+ال inflation حكينا على supply and demand let's
+
+393
+00:30:58,580 --> 00:31:04,880
+talk about the taxation expected E is the expected
+
+394
+00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:13,600
+inflation ماشي أمل so the expected I
+
+395
+00:31:14,730 --> 00:31:20,350
+is important so if we think the expected rate of
+
+396
+00:31:20,350 --> 00:31:24,230
+.. the expected I will increase it means R will
+
+397
+00:31:24,230 --> 00:31:28,770
+increase طبعا ليش احنا ال R مابتأثرش هان ال small
+
+398
+00:31:28,770 --> 00:31:33,170
+r because R is a function of both هي .. هي علاقة
+
+399
+00:31:33,170 --> 00:31:37,390
+بين طرفين the nominal rate of return and the
+
+400
+00:31:37,390 --> 00:31:41,650
+expected inflation طبعا يعني هي بتأثر في ال
+
+401
+00:31:41,650 --> 00:31:47,930
+expected inflationنحكي عن ال taxes طبعا طلعوا على
+
+402
+00:31:47,930 --> 00:31:50,770
+الخريطة اللي احنا رسمناها أول ما جينا قولنا ال
+
+403
+00:31:50,770 --> 00:31:54,610
+real rate of return بتتأثر في ال I و في ال taxes و
+
+404
+00:31:54,610 --> 00:31:58,750
+في ال period او في ال maturity حكينا .. حكينا عن
+
+405
+00:31:58,750 --> 00:32:04,950
+ال I not any R not any R which R I'm talking now
+
+406
+00:32:04,950 --> 00:32:13,190
+real مش IR الحقيقية بالظبط ال tax تفضل
+
+407
+00:32:18,570 --> 00:32:23,050
+بتتناسب عكسي .. مش مع ال .. بتتناسب عكسي مع ال ..
+
+408
+00:32:23,050 --> 00:32:27,230
+مع ال push chasing و مع ال inflation اللي هو واحد
+
+409
+00:32:27,230 --> 00:32:27,710
+زائد I
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e731761a5ad292119e12e7b4f6dcee31e1c73d75
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1959 @@
+1
+00:00:22,270 --> 00:00:26,250
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اليوم إن شاء الله هن ..
+
+2
+00:00:26,250 --> 00:00:29,270
+هنكمل كيف احنا نعمل construction ل portfolio
+
+3
+00:00:29,270 --> 00:00:33,870
+construction يعني نعمل بناء لمحفظة استثمارية الهدف 
+
+4
+00:00:33,870 --> 00:00:38,950
+الرئيسي عشان احنا نبني محفظة استثمارية اتذكر دائما
+
+5
+00:00:38,950 --> 00:00:44,730
+the main objective of building a particular
+
+6
+00:00:44,730 --> 00:00:50,080
+portfolio is to increase return and Decrease Risk. OK هذا
+
+7
+00:00:50,080 --> 00:01:00,800
+ما اقوله عندما نصنع Portfolio فقط انظر هنا اعادة و
+
+8
+00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,020
+Decrease
+
+9
+00:01:04,020 --> 00:01:15,180
+Risk من نظر الاستثمار ما يعنيه؟ يعني that once we
+
+10
+00:01:15,180 --> 00:01:20,540
+increase return and decrease risk we maximize the
+
+11
+00:01:20,540 --> 00:01:30,980
+utility نحن
+
+12
+00:01:30,980 --> 00:01:37,740
+نعظم السرعة at the end when we increase return
+
+13
+00:01:37,740 --> 00:01:41,040
+and decrease risk we maximize the utility
+
+14
+00:01:44,380 --> 00:01:50,740
+Okay so my question today is how we maximize the
+
+15
+00:01:50,740 --> 00:01:56,020
+utility كيف احنا ممكن نعظم المنفع؟ okay and our
+
+16
+00:01:56,020 --> 00:02:02,720
+focus today is only on this particular subject on
+
+17
+00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,300
+maximizing the utility because investors do not only
+
+18
+00:02:06,300 --> 00:02:10,930
+look at the return أو الـ Risk، ولكن إما أنهم
+
+19
+00:02:10,930 --> 00:02:13,810
+ينظروا إلى كلا من Risk و Return في الوقت نفسه.
+
+20
+00:02:14,930 --> 00:02:22,190
+لذلك كما قلنا، الهدف هو الوصول إلى الـ
+
+21
+00:02:22,190 --> 00:02:26,290
+Return المتوقع المناسب
+
+22
+00:02:26,290 --> 00:02:36,150
+نصف A سيساعدنا فقط لأذكركم في الوثيقة يعني زي
+
+23
+00:02:36,150 --> 00:02:38,690
+ما احنا حكينا ال utility بتساوي ال expected return
+
+24
+00:02:38,690 --> 00:02:43,550
+of the particular portfolio, okay, minus half of a,
+
+25
+00:02:43,670 --> 00:02:50,490
+a is risk aversion and sigma square. Let's take
+
+26
+00:02:50,490 --> 00:02:54,770
+this example to see the importance of utility. ناخد
+
+27
+00:02:54,770 --> 00:02:56,430
+مثال عشان نشوف أهمية ال utility
+
+28
+00:03:01,300 --> 00:03:04,120
+as... as I mentioned in the previous meeting زي ما
+
+29
+00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:08,700
+أنا حكيت في ال previous meeting الفات حكينا إنه
+
+30
+00:03:08,700 --> 00:03:13,160
+إذا احنا بنعمل portfolio يعني I just am
+
+31
+00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:15,980
+summarizing what I said to integrate you with the
+
+32
+00:03:15,980 --> 00:03:18,540
+... with the subject today. يعني أنا قاعد برجعلكم
+
+33
+00:03:18,540 --> 00:03:22,120
+الكلام اللي حكيته أول عشان نحطكم بالصورة تبعت
+
+34
+00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:28,040
+اليوم. For instance, if we have this portfolio يعني
+
+35
+00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:34,210
+واحد مع مثلا one thousand dollar استثمار جزء من
+
+36
+00:03:34,210 --> 00:03:50,330
+1000 دولار في مصادر رخيصة ورخيص حر ورخيص
+
+37
+00:03:50,330 --> 00:03:57,570
+حر. دعونا نعرف المصادر الرخيصة ك P ورخيص حر ك F
+
+38
+00:04:02,310 --> 00:04:09,510
+بعد ذلك نستخدم مصالحنا الـ 1000$ كم نستخدمه في F و
+
+39
+00:04:09,510 --> 00:04:15,990
+كم نستخدمه في B. هذا يعني الشخصية اللي استخدمها في
+
+40
+00:04:15,990 --> 00:04:21,950
+F و الشخصية اللي استخدمها في B. الشخصية اللي
+
+41
+00:04:21,950 --> 00:04:27,690
+استخدمها في B نسميها Y و الشخصية اللي استخدمها في
+
+42
+00:04:27,690 --> 00:04:36,080
+F هي 1-Y. مثلًا إذا قمنا بالاستثمار في 70% من الـ Y
+
+43
+00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:49,300
+فهذا يعني أن الباقية هي 30% من 1-Y. حتى
+
+44
+00:04:49,300 --> 00:04:57,660
+اللحظة التي أقولها إذا كنت ترغب في تخطيط إعادة
+
+45
+00:04:57,660 --> 00:05:02,040
+بورتفاليو تماملذلك إذا كنت أردت تخطيط إعادة
+
+46
+00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:06,100
+البرتفالي المكتمل. C هو مصطلح البرتفالي المكتمل،
+
+47
+00:05:06,100 --> 00:05:13,940
+فهو يعني Y بـ Rb
+
+48
+00:05:13,940 --> 00:05:23,900
+plus 1 minus Y times Rf. هل هذا صحيح؟ على سبيل
+
+49
+00:05:23,900 --> 00:05:35,600
+المثال، إذا فـ 7%وإذا عدد عدد عدد P هو 15% فرصة
+
+50
+00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:51,980
+Rc هي 70% X 15% Plus 1-Y هو 30% X 7%. فهو
+
+51
+00:05:51,980 --> 00:06:03,070
+بسيط جدا. فإن عدد عدد عدد PortfolioY times RP plus
+
+52
+00:06:03,070 --> 00:06:08,070
+one minus Y times RF. Return of the free risk and
+
+53
+00:06:08,070 --> 00:06:15,090
+the return of the risky portfolio. Okay, so we don't
+
+54
+00:06:15,090 --> 00:06:19,770
+have a problem now. Okay, so this is we talk about RC
+
+55
+00:06:19,770 --> 00:06:26,230
+we talk about RC. دعونا نتكلم عن فرصة هذا
+
+56
+00:06:26,230 --> 00:06:36,890
+البرتفاليون. سيجما C. سيجما C. سيجما C هو في نفس
+
+57
+00:06:36,890 --> 00:06:45,890
+الطريقة. سيجما C هو يقل. دعونا نقول Y سيجما B plus 1
+
+58
+00:06:45,890 --> 00:06:52,330
+minus Y سيجما F. هل هذا صحيح؟
+
+59
+00:06:55,020 --> 00:07:06,840
+إذا كنا نعرف أن صفر F يقل 0. إذا صفر F يقل 0، فصفر
+
+60
+00:07:06,840 --> 00:07:10,580
+C يقل
+
+61
+00:07:10,580 --> 00:07:22,440
+Y بصفر B. إذا كنا نريد أن نقدم Y، فصفر Y يقل صفر C
+
+62
+00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:24,040
+بصفر B.
+
+63
+00:07:29,860 --> 00:07:37,460
+Okay, it is very simple. Any questions so far؟ حكينا
+
+64
+00:07:37,460 --> 00:07:44,940
+احنا we have a portfolio with 1000$. محفظة ألف
+
+65
+00:07:44,940 --> 00:07:52,480
+دولار. We divided the portfolio into two parts. يعني
+
+66
+00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:58,100
+استثمرنا في في risk assets سميناها P وفي risk-free
+
+67
+00:07:58,100 --> 00:08:03,420
+assets سميناها F. Okay, so if we consider that we
+
+68
+00:08:03,420 --> 00:08:08,280
+invest 70 percent portion which is Y. Y هي الوزن
+
+69
+00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:13,640
+so one minus Y is equal to 30 percent. يعني سبعين
+
+70
+00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:15,880
+في المية زائد تلاتين في المية. One hundred percent.
+
+71
+00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:22,880
+Okay, now if you want to calculate the RC, what it
+
+72
+00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:27,740
+means RC, it means والعادة لـ Complete Portfolio
+
+73
+00:08:27,740 --> 00:08:32,020
+ماذا يعني Complete Portfolio؟ Portfolio يحتوي على
+
+74
+00:08:32,020 --> 00:08:33,820
+أصول خطرية و أصول خالية من المخاطر. خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة
+
+75
+00:08:33,820 --> 00:08:45,480
+خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة
+
+76
+00:08:45,910 --> 00:08:52,370
+الأسد المخاطر مرة واحدة. مقاومة الأسد المخاطر. YRP
+
+77
+00:08:52,370 --> 00:08:59,090
+plus one minus Y times RF. ثم النتائج RC هي فقط
+
+78
+00:08:59,090 --> 00:09:05,310
+تفعل الأشياء المثالية. الآن ننتهي من عملية الترجمة
+
+79
+00:09:05,310 --> 00:09:12,380
+للعودة لـ Sigma C. It is in the same way we do this
+
+80
+00:09:12,380 --> 00:09:18,740
+y sigma b plus one minus y sigma f. But be careful
+
+81
+00:09:18,740 --> 00:09:24,160
+here. انتبهوا يعني because this is we assume in
+
+82
+00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:29,560
+this problem we assume that we ignore the
+
+83
+00:09:29,560 --> 00:09:34,000
+correlation between between the free assets and
+
+84
+00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:38,360
+risky assets. يعني احنا اتجاهلنا اي ارتباط بيناتهم
+
+85
+00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:46,380
+لأنه في الشباتر القادمة if there is a correlation
+
+86
+00:09:46,380 --> 00:09:49,640
+so we have to change the structure of this
+
+87
+00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:53,800
+equation. لازم نغير ال structure تبعتنا ال equation
+
+88
+00:09:53,800 --> 00:10:01,260
+تبعتنا. Okay, okay, so now why we are estimating the
+
+89
+00:10:01,260 --> 00:10:04,840
+portfolio as as I said the the main important
+
+90
+00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:11,210
+things is لإزالة المستقبل و لإنقاذ المخاطر بطريقة
+
+91
+00:10:11,210 --> 00:10:14,950
+مختلفة. بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+92
+00:10:14,950 --> 00:10:16,730
+بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة
+
+93
+00:10:16,730 --> 00:10:16,750
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+94
+00:10:16,750 --> 00:10:17,430
+بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة
+
+95
+00:10:17,430 --> 00:10:18,710
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+96
+00:10:18,710 --> 00:10:18,770
+بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة
+
+97
+00:10:18,770 --> 00:10:21,890
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+98
+00:10:21,890 --> 00:10:26,050
+بكلمة
+
+99
+00:10:26,050 --> 00:10:33,070
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة م
+
+100
+00:10:35,420 --> 00:10:37,840
+How we can maximize utility?
+
+101
+00:10:41,060 --> 00:10:44,220
+Maximizing utility depends on the structure of our
+
+102
+00:10:44,220 --> 00:10:49,740
+portfolio. Maximizing utility depends on the structure
+
+103
+00:10:49,740 --> 00:10:55,920
+of our portfolio. It means how much we invest in
+
+104
+00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:59,340
+risky assets and how much we invest in risk-free
+
+105
+00:10:59,340 --> 00:11:06,680
+assets. Okay. So it's... So as I said if this is the
+
+106
+00:11:06,680 --> 00:11:11,080
+F and you know what it means F and this is B and
+
+107
+00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:15,280
+you know what it means B. Just to remind you F is
+
+108
+00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:19,940
+the risk-free assets and B is the risky assets.
+
+109
+00:11:20,820 --> 00:11:24,120
+The big question is how much we invest in F and
+
+110
+00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,960
+how much we invest in B. Let's for instance take
+
+111
+00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,570
+this example here. You know what it means why now
+
+112
+00:11:30,570 --> 00:11:37,610
+no why? Be careful why. So this is why. This is the
+
+113
+00:11:37,610 --> 00:11:43,710
+expected return of RC. This is the sigma C. This is
+
+114
+00:11:43,710 --> 00:11:47,370
+the utility. Okay.
+
+115
+00:11:47,370 --> 00:11:51,030
+You know what it means why?
+
+116
+00:11:58,630 --> 00:12:04,290
+عطيني جملة كاملة. What it means? What it means why?
+
+117
+00:12:04,290 --> 00:12:15,890
+أنا 
+
+118
+00:12:15,890 --> 00:12:21,270
+very very strict with what you said لأن this is
+
+119
+00:12:21,270 --> 00:12:26,850
+investment. هذا استثمار و be careful when you answer
+
+120
+00:12:26,850 --> 00:12:32,010
+the question. ما يعنيه why؟ يعني أنّه مجزرة من
+
+121
+00:12:32,010 --> 00:12:36,030
+الاستثمار من أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول
+
+122
+00:12:36,030 --> 00:12:36,690
+أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول
+
+123
+00:12:36,690 --> 00:12:40,570
+أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول
+
+124
+00:12:40,570 --> 00:12:41,530
+أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول
+
+125
+00:12:41,530 --> 00:12:42,250
+أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول أصول 
+
+126
+00:12:42,250 --> 00:12:43,510
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+127
+00:12:43,510 --> 00:12:51,090
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+128
+00:12:51,090 --> 00:12:54,910
+أ
+
+129
+00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:04,840
+Okay. Now if you invest in Y, so zero. Explain it to 
+
+130
+00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:12,740
+me what it means if zero, if Y equals zero, so
+
+131
+00:13:12,740 --> 00:13:19,900
+how much the expected return of RC كم؟
+
+132
+00:13:19,900 --> 00:13:23,460
+Seven. Yes, seven, seven percent.
+
+133
+00:13:27,870 --> 00:13:33,430
+إذا ما هو سيجما C؟ Zero. ماذا هو الوثيقة؟ الـ وثيقة
+
+134
+00:13:33,430 --> 00:13:38,210
+أنك تحتاج إعلان إضافي إذا كنت تعرف الـ وثيقة، تحتاج A
+
+135
+00:13:38,210 --> 00:13:45,950
+لأن الـ وثيقة هي عملية عودة توقع A مناسبة نصف سيجما 
+
+136
+00:13:45,950 --> 00:13:52,710
+أو نصف A سيجما المساواة. إذا كنت تعرف أن A هو أكثر 
+
+137
+00:13:52,710 --> 00:13:57,920
+من 4، فتطبيق الـ وثيقة، بس طبق الـ معادلة، you will find
+
+138
+00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:10,140
+you شو أيه؟ what it means أيه؟
+
+139
+00:14:10,140 --> 00:14:14,080
+آه
+
+140
+00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:17,140
+آه. so what is أيه؟ what it means أيه؟
+
+141
+00:14:24,390 --> 00:14:28,650
+Okay, if... if you have higher A, what it means؟
+
+142
+00:14:28,650 --> 00:14:33,270
+دلوقت
+
+143
+00:14:33,270 --> 00:14:37,430
+الجانب هذا. If you have higher A, what it means؟ We
+
+144
+00:14:37,430 --> 00:14:42,330
+know this, but if we have higher A, if you have
+
+145
+00:14:42,330 --> 00:14:45,190
+higher A, you are more prefer risk or less prefer
+
+146
+00:14:45,190 --> 00:14:49,430
+risk? Less prefer risk. If you have... if you have
+
+147
+00:14:49,430 --> 00:14:53,440
+lower A، إذا كان عندكم lower a، what it means؟ Higher
+
+148
+00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:59,880
+risk. Okay, just... just be careful here if a, because
+
+149
+00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:03,940
+now we have some... some people, they don't understand
+
+150
+00:15:03,940 --> 00:15:13,840
+what exactly mean a. So a is located a 
+
+151
+00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:26,120
+sometimes equal zero. A أكبر من 0. A أقل من 0. إذا
+
+152
+00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:36,140
+كان A أقل من 0، نسمي هذا الشخص ريسكا نيوترال. ريسكا
+
+153
+00:15:36,140 --> 00:15:44,000
+نيوترال. ما يعنيه ريسكا نيوترال؟ People with a equal
+
+154
+00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:48,320
+zero, it means they don't need compensation for a
+
+155
+00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:52,540
+particular risk. But if people with a greater than
+
+156
+00:15:52,540 --> 00:15:59,600
+zero, it's people become more risk aversion. If
+
+157
+00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:06,040
+people with a less than zero, it means okay, if a
+
+158
+00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:11,340
+less than zero. إذا كانت الـ a أقل من zero بتكون
+
+159
+00:16:14,170 --> 00:16:21,310
+لأ، بيكون هدول risk lovers. طيب هدول risk neutral
+
+160
+00:16:21,310 --> 00:16:25,250
+هدول
+
+161
+00:16:25,250 --> 00:16:33,210
+risk aversion، وهدول
+
+162
+00:16:33,210 --> 00:16:38,770
+risk lovers. Risk
+
+163
+00:16:38,770 --> 00:16:42,630
+lovers. خليني أشوف، طلعوا على الـ خط العداد هنا
+
+164
+00:16:45,770 --> 00:16:52,370
+بس انتبهوا هنا، هتفهميها هنا، إذا كان هنا zero، بيكون
+
+165
+00:16:52,370 --> 00:16:55,970
+الـ neutral هنا
+
+166
+00:16:55,970 --> 00:17:00,690
+هيك شمال إيش أقل من zero ولا أكبر من zero؟ أقل من
+
+167
+00:17:00,690 --> 00:17:04,770
+zero. إذا أقل من zero هنا الناس إيش بيكونوا؟ Risk
+
+168
+00:17:04,770 --> 00:17:10,530
+lovers. طب إذا كانت أكثر من zero، risk aversion.
+
+169
+00:17:13,340 --> 00:17:17,200
+كل ما بنبتعد عن الـ zero. When we go from left to
+
+170
+00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:22,940
+right, it means we become more risk aversion. When
+
+171
+00:17:22,940 --> 00:17:27,420
+we are closing to zero and passing the zero to the
+
+172
+00:17:27,420 --> 00:17:33,140
+left, become more risk lovers. يعني احنا بنكون أكثر
+
+173
+00:17:33,140 --> 00:17:38,320
+بنحب المخاطر، تمام؟ هذه الـ a، وأعتقد أني قبل
+
+174
+00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:43,780
+محاضرتين أحطيتكم what it means أيه، مظبوط ولا لأ؟
+
+175
+00:17:43,780 --> 00:17:49,580
+وأعطينا more explanation about this. Okay, so now a
+
+176
+00:17:49,580 --> 00:17:54,620
+it means clear now. Risk
+
+177
+00:17:54,620 --> 00:17:58,840
+neutral، يعني they don't care about risk. مش سألنا
+
+178
+00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,780
+السؤال هذا، أحضرت أنت قبل يومين. Risk neutral، what
+
+179
+00:18:02,780 --> 00:18:06,860
+it means? They don't care about risk. They... they
+
+180
+00:18:06,860 --> 00:18:11,960
+don't consider risk. بتفرجش
+
+181
+00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:17,180
+معاهم بالعربي، بتفرجش معاهم، تمام؟
+
+182
+00:18:17,180 --> 00:18:23,600
+يعني هدول الناس بالظبط زي اللي بيعطي بدون مقابل
+
+183
+00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:28,600
+مظبوط؟ في ناس مش بيعطي بدون مقابل. هدول هم هدول
+
+184
+00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,520
+الناس، لأ، بس اللي على شماله، على اليمين لأ، بيختلفوا.
+
+185
+00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:36,890
+اللي على اليمين هو بتجنب مخاطر عشان أنه الـ عقد تمعه
+
+186
+00:18:36,890 --> 00:18:40,430
+قليل، الشمال هو بتحمل مخاطر أكثر عشان ياخد عقد
+
+187
+00:18:40,430 --> 00:18:44,710
+أكثر، وحكينا أنه احنا لما بنمشي شمال بيكون the
+
+188
+00:18:44,710 --> 00:18:52,850
+risk is for enjoyment, for إيش؟ for enjoyment. في...
+
+189
+00:18:52,850 --> 00:18:55,930
+في... في some people... some investors, they... yes
+
+190
+00:18:55,930 --> 00:18:59,810
+they are enjoy when they are holding risk. بتشوفهم
+
+191
+00:18:59,810 --> 00:19:02,630
+هدول طبيعي، يعني في ال... في الحياة بتشوفهم هدول
+
+192
+00:19:02,630 --> 00:19:07,810
+اللي بيجوا يعني قبل أكام يومين اللي بين... بين...
+
+193
+00:19:07,810 --> 00:19:11,890
+بده يخفز من مكان لمكان، طبعا بيكون حياته كثير معرضة
+
+194
+00:19:11,890 --> 00:19:15,650
+للخطر، فهذا هو ماخد الـ risk for enjoyment.
+
+195
+00:19:18,740 --> 00:19:24,880
+لما Felix... لما Felix قفز من الفضاء، risk for
+
+196
+00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,820
+enjoyment. Enjoyment عشان to prove something in his
+
+197
+00:19:27,820 --> 00:19:32,320
+mind. عشان يبرهن شغلة صارت. Okay, so this is the
+
+198
+00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,420
+thing. Some people they enjoy when they are taking
+
+199
+00:19:34,420 --> 00:19:40,760
+risk, and the same thing in investments. نفس الشغلة
+
+200
+00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:48,930
+بالـ investments. Okay, so now the question is، في هذا
+
+201
+00:19:48,930 --> 00:19:52,290
+الـ برتفالي نقوم بالاستثمار في 70%، نقوم بالاستثمار
+
+202
+00:19:52,290 --> 00:19:56,550
+في هذه الجزء من الـ برتفالي، وهذه الجزء منها. السؤال
+
+203
+00:19:56,550 --> 00:20:00,610
+الكبير، ما هو الـ برتفالي الأفضل؟ الـ برتفالي الأفضل
+
+204
+00:20:00,610 --> 00:20:04,330
+يعتمد على استخدام الـ استخدام. عندما نقوم باستخدام
+
+205
+00:20:04,330 --> 00:20:11,850
+الـ استخدام، حسنا دعنا نغير مصطلح الـ برتفالي، دعنا
+
+206
+00:20:11,850 --> 00:20:17,270
+نغير الـ مصطلح. إذا كان 20%، إذا كانت twenty percent
+
+207
+00:20:17,270 --> 00:20:22,750
+what it means if y is twenty percent؟ إذا كانت الـ y
+
+208
+00:20:22,750 --> 00:20:33,850
+twenty percent، إيش معنى الكلام؟ If y
+
+209
+00:20:33,850 --> 00:20:39,790
+is twenty percent، so
+
+210
+00:20:39,790 --> 00:20:40,670
+what this means?
+
+211
+00:20:44,210 --> 00:20:48,130
+بسرعة يا بنات، بدهاش... إذا كانت الـ y... لا بده...
+
+212
+00:20:48,130 --> 00:20:52,030
+بده حسبة... إذا كانت الـ y عشرين في المية، إيش
+
+213
+00:20:52,030 --> 00:20:55,290
+معناه؟ كدهش أنا مستثمر في الـ one minus y؟ ثمانين
+
+214
+00:20:55,290 --> 00:20:56,970
+... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين
+
+215
+00:20:56,970 --> 00:20:57,430
+... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين
+
+216
+00:20:57,430 --> 00:20:57,610
+... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين
+
+217
+00:20:57,610 --> 00:20:57,710
+... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين
+
+218
+00:20:57,710 --> 00:21:02,710
+... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين
+
+219
+00:21:02,710 --> 00:21:04,050
+... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين
+
+220
+00:21:04,050 --> 00:21:05,830
+... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين
+
+221
+00:21:05,830 --> 00:21:12,690
+... ثمانين... ثمانين... ثمانين
+
+222
+00:21:12,690 --> 00:21:16,130
+... تمطب. لو احنا استثمرنا forty percent، what it
+
+223
+00:21:16,130 --> 00:21:21,470
+means and why؟ Sixty percent. طب لو استثمرنا eighty
+
+224
+00:21:21,470 --> 00:21:28,350
+percent، twenty. وين استثمرناهم؟ في الـ free risk. If
+
+225
+00:21:28,350 --> 00:21:32,710
+we invest one hundred. طب جداش هان بده تكون الـ RC؟
+
+226
+00:21:32,710 --> 00:21:36,610
+أشوف بسرعة الـ RC جداش هتكون؟
+
+227
+00:21:39,810 --> 00:21:47,210
+إذا احنا مستثمرين 100% في الـ y، 15%، 15%، and
+
+228
+00:21:47,210 --> 00:21:50,570
+in
+
+229
+00:21:50,570 --> 00:21:57,230
+all cases you calculate the... you calculate sigma c
+
+230
+00:21:57,230 --> 00:22:02,810
+وerc and utility. طيب مش هذا اللي احنا بدنايا لسه؟
+
+231
+00:22:02,810 --> 00:22:08,350
+أنا، طلعوا الـ تركيبات بتتغير، صح؟ الـ تركيبة بتتغير كل
+
+232
+00:22:08,350 --> 00:22:12,190
+ما أنا بغير في الـ تركيبة بتتغير الـ ARC، بتتغير الـ
+
+233
+00:22:12,190 --> 00:22:16,830
+Sigma C، وبتتغير الـ utility. السؤال، أي واحدة في
+
+234
+00:22:16,830 --> 00:22:21,610
+هدول أحسن تركيبة؟ Which one is the best؟ اللي بيكون
+
+235
+00:22:21,610 --> 00:22:27,030
+العائد... خلينا ناخد إجابات لحظة شوية. إيش اسمك؟
+
+236
+00:22:27,030 --> 00:22:33,770
+اسمها، حكت لما يكون العائد أكثر. Okay، كلامك صح، لكن
+
+237
+00:22:33,770 --> 00:22:36,670
+في مشكلة. كلامك صح. تفضلي.
+
+238
+00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:43,420
+مق أقل sigma. طيب عائد أكثر، مق أقل sigma. كلام صحيح
+
+239
+00:22:43,420 --> 00:22:49,700
+بس وين هذا الكلام هيصير؟
+
+240
+00:22:49,700 --> 00:22:54,080
+حكت
+
+241
+00:22:54,080 --> 00:23:01,260
+أسماء قالت أنه عند عائد أكثر، صح؟ بس جينا برضه في
+
+242
+00:23:01,260 --> 00:23:05,420
+مشكلة. حكت هي أنه لأ، عند عائد أكثر، وعند مخاطر أقل.
+
+243
+00:23:05,420 --> 00:23:11,670
+طب where... where or when we have higher return
+
+244
+00:23:11,670 --> 00:23:17,930
+with lower risk؟ When؟ With the maximized utility.
+
+245
+00:23:17,930 --> 00:23:22,090
+أيوة، with this، with the maximized utility.
+
+246
+00:23:25,150 --> 00:23:27,250
+السؤال، عندما نستطيع الحصول على الـ Maximized
+
+247
+00:23:27,250 --> 00:23:31,510
+Utility؟ احنا هنضل نجرب، بس هل هذا بظبط نضل نجرب؟
+
+248
+00:23:31,510 --> 00:23:35,070
+لأنه ممكن احنا إيش نسوي؟ واحد يسوي okay، سفر في
+
+249
+00:23:35,070 --> 00:23:39,290
+المية، ممكن الـ خطوة البعدي هناخد واحد في المية، ممكن؟
+
+250
+00:23:39,290 --> 00:23:44,230
+يعني ممكن، it takes time. So what we can do then to 
+
+251
+00:23:44,230 --> 00:23:48,830
+estimate the maximized utility the first thing the
+
+252
+00:23:48,830 --> 00:23:55,300
+maximized utility as you said when the utility
+
+253
+00:23:55,300 --> 00:24:01,840
+is maximized okay when the utility is maximized
+
+254
+00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,800
+depends on the construction or the structure of
+
+255
+00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:09,600
+the portfolio فاحنا لازم نجيب الـ y لازم نجيب الـ y
+
+256
+00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:16,540
+so how we can get y بحكيتها
+
+257
+00:24:20,530 --> 00:24:24,910
+قلنا إن الـ maximize utility بتعتمد على ال
+
+258
+00:24:24,910 --> 00:24:28,510
+structure of the portfolio بتعتمد على تركيب
+
+259
+00:24:28,510 --> 00:24:33,170
+المحفظة how much you invest in F and how much you
+
+260
+00:24:33,170 --> 00:24:37,590
+invest in P قداش احنا بنستثمر في F و قداش احنا
+
+261
+00:24:37,590 --> 00:24:41,690
+بنستثمر في P and we have alternatives here so we
+
+262
+00:24:41,690 --> 00:24:42,870
+need to estimate Y
+
+263
+00:24:45,540 --> 00:24:48,700
+بدنا احنا نعمل estimation للـ y estimation للـ y
+
+264
+00:24:48,700 --> 00:24:51,320
+it depends on the maximized utility تعتمد على
+
+265
+00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,400
+maximized utility so we need to estimate the
+
+266
+00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,940
+maximized utility pay attention here because this
+
+267
+00:24:57,940 --> 00:25:01,660
+is important I don't need you to memorize the
+
+268
+00:25:01,660 --> 00:25:08,680
+equations أنا ما بدي منكم تحفظوا المعادلات okay يا
+
+269
+00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,300
+بابا انتبهوا إيش حكيته you don't need to memorize
+
+270
+00:25:11,300 --> 00:25:16,790
+how I drive the equations ما بديش منكم تقرا فوق how I
+
+271
+00:25:16,790 --> 00:25:22,350
+drive them because it is not your subject how to
+
+272
+00:25:22,350 --> 00:25:26,070
+drive them يعني مش موضوعنا إن احنا to drive them
+
+273
+00:25:26,070 --> 00:25:28,930
+leave it to me because this is the .. this is
+
+274
+00:25:28,930 --> 00:25:32,530
+advanced things it is not advanced مش advanced لكن
+
+275
+00:25:32,530 --> 00:25:37,330
+هي مرتبطة بالقداش انتوا مخلصين الثانوية بنجاح
+
+276
+00:25:37,330 --> 00:25:43,290
+و قداش ماخدين رياضيات لأنه الـ maximize utility لما
+
+277
+00:25:43,290 --> 00:25:46,590
+بنعمل maximize الـ utility فياش بيذكركوا ال
+
+278
+00:25:46,590 --> 00:25:49,130
+maximize الـ utility؟ مين أخد رياضيات؟ مين خلص
+
+279
+00:25:49,130 --> 00:25:54,970
+توجيه علمي؟ كيف نعمل maximizing للـ utility كيف مثلا
+
+280
+00:25:54,970 --> 00:25:59,290
+أخدت في الثانوية العامة بدنا نصل لأعلى سرعة ممكنة
+
+281
+00:25:59,290 --> 00:26:02,830
+كيف أوصل لأعلى سرعة ممكنة إيش الـ tools اللي
+
+282
+00:26:02,830 --> 00:26:07,970
+بستخدمها في الـ mathematics؟ الزمن بستخدم الـ
+
+283
+00:26:07,970 --> 00:26:14,850
+derivatives المشتقات التفاضل و تكامل صح؟ لازم
+
+284
+00:26:14,850 --> 00:26:22,660
+نستخدم الـ derivatives derivatives اسمها مشتقة تفاضل
+
+285
+00:26:22,660 --> 00:26:33,420
+و تكامل طيب خلينا نركز مع بعض هان تبقوا مع بعض so u
+
+286
+00:26:33,420 --> 00:26:43,380
+maximize u is equal to arc minus half a sigma
+
+287
+00:26:43,380 --> 00:26:50,160
+square okay مظبوط ولا لأ الكلام هذا طيب هلان ليش
+
+288
+00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:50,640
+نعوض
+
+289
+00:26:56,290 --> 00:27:03,610
+بالمحاضرة الفاتة أخدنا الـ ARC هتساوي إيش؟ هتساوي
+
+290
+00:27:03,610 --> 00:27:10,430
+عندنا الـ RF plus
+
+291
+00:27:10,430 --> 00:27:20,190
+Y ذكرونا R minus RF okay RB minus RF مظبوط minus
+
+292
+00:27:20,190 --> 00:27:27,510
+half احنا ايه سونا arc أخدناها الأول امبارح قولنا
+
+293
+00:27:27,510 --> 00:27:31,890
+arc بتساوي
+
+294
+00:27:31,890 --> 00:27:42,730
+RF plus Y RB minus RF هذا أخدناه فعوضناه أنا
+
+295
+00:27:42,730 --> 00:27:47,070
+بحكيلكم مش طالبكم في الـ .. بس عشان .. اذا حد
+
+296
+00:27:47,070 --> 00:27:50,290
+بيتابعنا في الـ .. على الفيديو يشوف كيف احنا how we
+
+297
+00:27:50,290 --> 00:27:59,930
+drive this so it's half a تو احنا حكينا sigma sigma
+
+298
+00:27:59,930 --> 00:28:08,550
+b إيش حكينا y بتساوي sigma c على sigma b مظبوط؟
+
+299
+00:28:08,550 --> 00:28:14,270
+قبل شوية وبالتالي بتصير half sigma a y squared
+
+300
+00:28:14,270 --> 00:28:18,410
+sigma b squared فهي
+
+301
+00:28:18,410 --> 00:28:23,600
+بتصير القانون تبعنا طيب بنعمل لهذا القانون ..
+
+302
+00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:28,120
+بنعمله إيش؟ اشتقاق بالأخير بنطلع .. we want to
+
+303
+00:28:28,120 --> 00:28:35,800
+estimate Y بدنا نشوف maximize U تخافوش يا بنات اه؟
+
+304
+00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:41,020
+maximize Y depends on .. maximize U depends on Y
+
+305
+00:28:41,020 --> 00:28:48,800
+فنعمل what is Y؟ إيش التركيبة المفترة؟ Y is the
+
+306
+00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:54,750
+optimal Y اه So
+
+307
+00:28:54,750 --> 00:29:03,850
+it is equal RP minus RF divided by A Sigma Square
+
+308
+00:29:03,850 --> 00:29:13,890
+Okay اتبعوا
+
+309
+00:29:13,890 --> 00:29:19,410
+عندي انتوا بدكم ادخلكوا الاشتراك في الـ .. ما شايف
+
+310
+00:29:19,410 --> 00:29:25,620
+ناس .. شايف ناس بفتو كتير قاعدين فانا .. أنا بريحكم
+
+311
+00:29:25,620 --> 00:29:38,540
+الـ Y الـ Y بتساوي زي ما انتوا شايفين RB-RF A Sigma
+
+312
+00:29:38,540 --> 00:29:44,360
+Square P هذا
+
+313
+00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:51,140
+اللي احنا بدنا يعنى okay so Y is equal the expected
+
+314
+00:29:51,140 --> 00:29:57,380
+return of RB RB هو بتاعة المحفظة الـ risk free أنا
+
+315
+00:29:57,380 --> 00:30:01,900
+مساهل عليكم و مريحكم كمان okay بالأخير we want to
+
+316
+00:30:01,900 --> 00:30:07,080
+estimate Y بدنا نعرف Y إيش هي Y طلع و هان بدنا
+
+317
+00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:13,780
+نعرف إيش الـ Y اللي بتخليني احسن U احسن منفعة okay
+
+318
+00:30:13,780 --> 00:30:14,720
+طيب
+
+319
+00:30:18,850 --> 00:30:23,650
+هي الـ Y اللي بتقدر من خلالها نحسب الـ RB minus RF
+
+320
+00:30:23,650 --> 00:30:29,710
+divided by A عارفين الـ A؟ Sigma squared B Sigma
+
+321
+00:30:29,710 --> 00:30:33,830
+squared B طبعا انتوا عارفينها إن الـ B اللي هو
+
+322
+00:30:33,830 --> 00:30:36,190
+Sigma squared of the portfolio of the risky
+
+323
+00:30:36,190 --> 00:30:39,490
+portfolio you know this and this is the expected
+
+324
+00:30:39,490 --> 00:30:44,510
+return expected return of the not risk free the
+
+325
+00:30:44,510 --> 00:30:49,150
+risky portfolio and this is RF is the expected
+
+326
+00:30:49,150 --> 00:30:54,070
+return of the risk-free portfolio and this is a
+
+327
+00:30:54,070 --> 00:30:59,770
+sigma square b if you remove a إذا إحنا بنجيب a
+
+328
+00:30:59,770 --> 00:31:06,610
+تطلعه هذي بتذكركم بإيش شارب if you remove a this
+
+329
+00:31:06,610 --> 00:31:09,730
+is sharp ratio طب إيش كمان غير sharp ratio this is
+
+330
+00:31:09,730 --> 00:31:14,750
+slope as well اللي هي هي شوفوها بالـ .. هي slope
+
+331
+00:31:14,750 --> 00:31:15,390
+شايفينها؟
+
+332
+00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:27,740
+ARP-ARF SIGMA B This is the slope طيب إذا
+
+333
+00:31:27,740 --> 00:31:32,360
+at the end we want to know why when we know why in
+
+334
+00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:36,840
+this why we can maximize the utility عند هذه الـ
+
+335
+00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,940
+why هتكون الـ utility is maximized طبعا السؤال
+
+336
+00:31:40,940 --> 00:31:44,500
+محلول موجود كهيه ما عليكم انتوا تعيدوا حلو بس خلينا
+
+337
+00:31:44,500 --> 00:31:44,900
+نشوفه
+
+338
+00:31:51,700 --> 00:31:55,400
+طيب أنا حليت جزء من الـ .. من السؤال هذا السؤال
+
+339
+00:31:55,400 --> 00:32:02,500
+احفظوه زي اسمكم احفظوه زي إيش طبعا
+
+340
+00:32:02,500 --> 00:32:10,900
+هذا المثال هذا المثال اه
+
+341
+00:32:10,900 --> 00:32:17,490
+بقى صح هذا المثال example using chapter 6.4 numbers
+
+342
+00:32:17,490 --> 00:32:26,630
+يعني بترجعوا على مثال 6.4 طيب
+
+343
+00:32:26,630 --> 00:32:32,430
+هاي البيانات سبعته هاي البيانات سبعته okay بنعمله
+
+344
+00:32:32,430 --> 00:32:38,610
+بالأخير البيانات هذه بتطلعلي هذا الجواب طيب خدوا
+
+345
+00:32:38,610 --> 00:32:46,380
+دقيقة واحدة بس طبعا احنا عملنا الـ .. عملنا الـ ..
+
+346
+00:32:46,380 --> 00:32:49,680
+عملنا الـ maximized الـ utility بالطريقة هذه
+
+347
+00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:53,200
+العادية it takes time و قلنا بدل ما احنا to take
+
+348
+00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,720
+time و
+
+349
+00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,120
+قلنا بدل ما احنا to take time you just to
+
+350
+00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:03,700
+calculate y star بس احنا نحسب الـ y star and in
+
+351
+00:33:03,700 --> 00:33:08,380
+this y star the utility is maximized Okay look at
+
+352
+00:33:08,380 --> 00:33:11,140
+this table take two minutes three minutes in
+
+353
+00:33:11,140 --> 00:33:14,140
+looking at the table خدولكوا دقيقتين تلاتة تطلعوا
+
+354
+00:33:14,140 --> 00:33:18,500
+على الـ table and just mention where is the utility
+
+355
+00:33:18,500 --> 00:33:21,900
+is maximized طلعولي الـ utility where is maximized
+
+356
+00:33:21,900 --> 00:33:30,020
+كلامي واضح لأ انتوا تطلعوا دقيقة دقيقتين و jump to
+
+357
+00:33:30,020 --> 00:33:34,220
+the answer و طلعولي بالظبط وين الـ utility is
+
+358
+00:33:34,220 --> 00:33:40,610
+maximized وين أحسن utility؟ خلّي البنات الباقية
+
+359
+00:33:40,610 --> 00:33:50,470
+تطلع على الـ table أحمد على الـ table هان وين الـ
+
+360
+00:33:50,470 --> 00:34:01,490
+utility is maximized طيب
+
+361
+00:34:01,490 --> 00:34:03,530
+سؤال هل عند الـ zero
+
+362
+00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:14,760
+طيب هل عند الـ .. طب مع إنه الـ 15% الـ return؟ طيب
+
+363
+00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:19,360
+طب ليش ما حكينا إنه هي Sigma C؟ Zero؟ إن المخاطر
+
+364
+00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:26,780
+Zero؟ أيوة، إذن where أحسن utility سعرات؟ يعني 40%
+
+365
+00:34:26,780 --> 00:34:29,460
+بصبت؟ 40%، so it's C
+
+366
+00:34:34,850 --> 00:34:38,910
+طب اعطوني second observation هاي observation إن
+
+367
+00:34:38,910 --> 00:34:42,670
+احنا لاحظنا إن الـ utility is maximized تطلعوا الـ
+
+368
+00:34:42,670 --> 00:34:46,810
+utility شو بيصير فيها بناها تطلعوا لو سمحتوا كانت
+
+369
+00:34:46,810 --> 00:34:51,670
+7% زادت يعني لو احنا بدنا نعملها chart ات شارت
+
+370
+00:34:51,670 --> 00:34:59,150
+زادت زادت بعدين عند الـ 40% اللي كان صارت تنزل
+
+371
+00:35:02,240 --> 00:35:05,140
+ثمانية خمسة ثمانية ثمانية تلاتة اتنين and so on
+
+372
+00:35:05,140 --> 00:35:12,740
+فاحنا بدنا نسأل وين بالظبط الـ Y So
+
+373
+00:35:12,740 --> 00:35:16,800
+to estimate this instead of using the table you
+
+374
+00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:22,980
+just do Y is equal to the expected return of RP
+
+375
+00:35:22,980 --> 00:35:30,730
+minus RF divided by A sigma B squared بدل ما احنا 
+
+376
+00:35:30,730 --> 00:35:33,750
+نرفع كل هذا نحسبها ونروح بس نحسب المعادلة البسيطة
+
+377
+00:35:33,750 --> 00:35:39,670
+هاي we have RB, we have RF, we have A, we have 
+
+378
+00:35:39,670 --> 00:35:45,710
+sigma B squared و A هي ما أعطيكم إياها أربعة when
+
+379
+00:35:45,710 --> 00:35:50,470
+you go home just replicate this لما ترجعوا على
+
+380
+00:35:50,470 --> 00:35:54,650
+البيت حاولوا تحلوا السؤال هذا يعني أنا ممكن أجيبكم 
+
+381
+00:35:54,650 --> 00:35:57,510
+في الامتحان أمحيكم كل الـ table هاد كل الـ table
+
+382
+00:35:57,510 --> 00:35:57,850
+أمحي
+
+383
+00:36:00,930 --> 00:36:04,050
+أعطيكم RB وأعطيكم RF وأعطيكم A وأعطيكم Sigma B
+
+384
+00:36:04,050 --> 00:36:09,490
+وأقول لكم طلعوا لي الـ Y عند هدول النقاط طبعا أعطيتكم
+
+385
+00:36:09,490 --> 00:36:12,890
+المعادلات الأولى تبع الـ RC كيف انجاب وأعطيناكوا الـ
+
+386
+00:36:12,890 --> 00:36:17,170
+Sigma C كيف انجاب وأعطيناكم الـ Utility كيف انجاب بس
+
+387
+00:36:17,170 --> 00:36:20,050
+ارجعوا على البيت and do the table والأجبه ما هي
+
+388
+00:36:20,050 --> 00:36:25,090
+موجودة إذا في خطأ ما هيبين فهمتوا المثال؟ هذا
+
+389
+00:36:25,090 --> 00:36:28,330
+بتكونوا تحفظوه زي اسمكم طيب
+
+390
+00:36:30,460 --> 00:36:37,720
+هي الـ curve شوفتي
+
+391
+00:36:37,720 --> 00:36:41,860
+هان؟ ارجع يا .. لأنه عندنا البنات ما عندهم مش كلهم
+
+392
+00:36:41,860 --> 00:36:49,820
+قالعة حاسبة okay؟ ارجعي للمثال بنات هاي
+
+393
+00:36:49,820 --> 00:36:57,740
+المثال كله موجود عندكم بس الـ a أضفتلكم إياها a
+
+394
+00:36:57,740 --> 00:37:03,050
+موجودة في المثال a is equal four طيب جربوا كمان إذا
+
+395
+00:37:03,050 --> 00:37:14,390
+كانت الـ A بتساوي 2 مثلا ممكن
+
+396
+00:37:14,390 --> 00:37:17,650
+إذا .. طبعا هترجع تستخدميها بطريقة إيش الـ
+
+397
+00:37:17,650 --> 00:37:21,830
+arithmetic و الـ geometric أه بس لأ هي لأن هذا
+
+398
+00:37:21,830 --> 00:37:26,570
+بيصير خطأ إذا غلطتوا فيها هتضيعوا كتير علامات فيصير
+
+399
+00:37:26,570 --> 00:37:30,650
+خطأ متراكم فاحنا بنحاول نبعدكم عن المواضيع دي
+
+400
+00:37:30,650 --> 00:37:39,130
+okay طيب شايفين
+
+401
+00:37:39,130 --> 00:37:42,490
+الـ curve اللي أنا رسمته هو similar to this هيشوفته
+
+402
+00:37:42,490 --> 00:37:47,630
+عند الـ .. عند 40% كانت أفضل .. أفضل utility the
+
+403
+00:37:47,630 --> 00:37:52,120
+best utility طبعا what you can do then وإيش ممكن
+
+404
+00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:56,700
+تسووا كمان؟ just do with a with you with a is
+
+405
+00:37:56,700 --> 00:38:00,400
+equal to and compare with a is equal four يعني
+
+406
+00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,380
+جربوا إذا كانت الـ a بتساوي اتنين وجربوا إذا كانت
+
+407
+00:38:03,380 --> 00:38:06,900
+الـ a بتساوي four طب إيش رأيكم؟ خليني أسألكم سؤال
+
+408
+00:38:06,900 --> 00:38:14,060
+بسيط هيك إذا إن الـ a بتساوي اتنين الـ y بتزيد ولا
+
+409
+00:38:14,060 --> 00:38:20,760
+بتقل؟ ليش بتزيد؟ كلامك صح بتزيد بس ليش؟ هذا واحد
+
+410
+00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:25,880
+بس هذا from mathematical perspective from
+
+411
+00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:34,040
+investment perspective why؟ لأ عكس كلامك أيوة الـ Y
+
+412
+00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:38,380
+هتزيد لإن كل ما بزيد الـ Y هذه أسئلة مرات أنا بالـ
+
+413
+00:38:38,380 --> 00:38:42,140
+understanding بجيبها لحصل الأسئلة اللي بجيبها مش
+
+414
+00:38:42,140 --> 00:38:45,180
+just direct بتعالج إنه كده تحفظ لأ كده how you
+
+415
+00:38:45,180 --> 00:38:50,720
+understand if I increase Y إذا أنا بأعمل increase
+
+416
+00:38:50,720 --> 00:38:53,540
+للـ Y معناه كلام I'm increasing the risky asset
+
+417
+00:38:53,540 --> 00:38:59,900
+مظبوط ولا لأ طيب لما الـ A بتساوي 2 كل ما بتقل الـ A
+
+418
+00:38:59,900 --> 00:39:04,460
+كل ما الـ utility لازم تزيد so when we increase
+
+419
+00:39:04,460 --> 00:39:07,620
+utility الـ Y لازم تزيد كمان يعني بدل ما احنا
+
+420
+00:39:07,620 --> 00:39:12,640
+نستثمر 40% في الـ Y لأ نستثمر ممكن 60% في الـ Y أو
+
+421
+00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:17,060
+70% في الـ Y just be careful okay
+
+422
+00:39:21,100 --> 00:39:23,940
+عشان هيك الناس اللي بيعملوا investments smart
+
+423
+00:39:23,940 --> 00:39:29,040
+people يعني بيكونوا .. يعني .. اه لإنه بعدين بيبقى
+
+424
+00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:34,900
+وياض اه طيب
+
+425
+00:39:34,900 --> 00:39:38,400
+يعني هالكتاب اللي مانطلع الـ y star لازم يكون أكبر
+
+426
+00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:49,440
+من الـ y الأساسية اه في أي حالة هذه؟ لأ جربيها طيب
+
+427
+00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,960
+آخر إشي عشان نخلص الـ chapter هذا this is the end
+
+428
+00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:56,380
+of this chapter إن شاء الله on Saturday we have a
+
+429
+00:39:56,380 --> 00:40:00,000
+new chapter on the investment environment هذا آخر
+
+430
+00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:08,540
+.. تبوا طيب بعد المحاضرة passive strategies the
+
+431
+00:40:08,540 --> 00:40:11,900
+capital market line فاكرين الـ passive strategies؟
+
+432
+00:40:13,140 --> 00:40:15,760
+The passive strategy avoids any direct or indirect
+
+433
+00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,540
+security analysis هذا كلام حكيته في chapter one
+
+434
+00:40:18,540 --> 00:40:20,620
+and chapter two when I talk about the passive
+
+435
+00:40:20,620 --> 00:40:25,360
+management with regard the active management The
+
+436
+00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,700
+passive strategy avoids any direct or indirect
+
+437
+00:40:27,700 --> 00:40:30,720
+security analysis, why? Because they think the
+
+438
+00:40:30,720 --> 00:40:34,360
+market is efficient and you can go to select any
+
+439
+00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,340
+particular stock and put it in your portfolio يعني
+
+440
+00:40:37,340 --> 00:40:39,600
+ممكن تختاروا أي asset وتحطوه في الـ portfolio
+
+441
+00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:43,160
+بتاعكم supply and demand forces may make such a
+
+442
+00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:46,300
+strategy a reasonable choice for many investors
+
+443
+00:40:46,300 --> 00:40:50,560
+هذه الـ strategy كويسة كتير لبعض الـ investors خاصة
+
+444
+00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,940
+الـ investors دي small investors المستثمرين الصغار
+
+445
+00:40:53,940 --> 00:40:56,940
+they don't need to waste their time in looking
+
+446
+00:40:56,940 --> 00:41:02,460
+which is the best investment but they can select
+
+447
+00:41:02,460 --> 00:41:06,660
+any particular stock from the index Okay because
+
+448
+00:41:06,660 --> 00:41:12,220
+the market is categorize or ranking the investment
+
+449
+00:41:12,220 --> 00:41:15,720
+according to its efficiency يعني الـ .. الاستثمار
+
+450
+00:41:15,720 --> 00:41:19,520
+أصلا بيرتب الـ .. الـ .. البيانات أو الشركات حسب الـ
+
+451
+00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:23,520
+efficiency تبقيتها فما فيش حاجة أنه احنا نروح نعمل
+
+452
+00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:29,080
+تحليل لهم يعني مثلا زي مثلا شركة بتوظف في الناس
+
+453
+00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:33,260
+الـ .. أو طلاب الجدد المتخرجين أجداد فبيروحوش يعملوا
+
+454
+00:41:33,260 --> 00:41:35,780
+امتحانات من جديد للطلاب بيشوفوا الدرجات أفضل طلاب
+
+455
+00:41:35,780 --> 00:41:38,280
+حاططيه على درجات معينة بيروحوا بياخدوهم، so this
+
+456
+00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:43,740
+is the thing okay so a natural candidate for
+
+457
+00:41:43,740 --> 00:41:47,320
+passively held risky assets would be a well
+
+458
+00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,800
+diversified portfolio of common stocks such as the
+
+459
+00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:54,360
+S&P500 يعني naturally بالطبيعي بدل ما أنا to waste
+
+460
+00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:57,520
+my time بروح على الـ indexes وهذا شرحته زمان الـ
+
+461
+00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:01,520
+indexes الاستثمار في الـ indexes الـ indexes يعني
+
+462
+00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:07,520
+مثلا زي الـ S&P500 أو زي القدس مثلا في عندنا مؤشر
+
+463
+00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:13,200
+القدس تبع فلسطين زي مؤشر عمان مثلا زي مثلا مؤشر
+
+464
+00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:15,660
+Cairo and Alexandria 4100
+
+465
+00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:21,540
+في الـ 4100 مثلا أقوى 100 شركة they are ranking
+
+466
+00:42:21,540 --> 00:42:24,980
+them so why you are wasting your time on looking
+
+467
+00:42:24,980 --> 00:42:29,500
+which is the best company and the index itself is
+
+468
+00:42:29,500 --> 00:42:33,640
+ranking them فأحسن استراتيجية أنه احنا نروح نستثمر
+
+469
+00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:37,540
+على مثلا عندنا القدس بدهم أفضل مثلا مجموعة شركات
+
+470
+00:42:37,540 --> 00:42:40,760
+فبتروح وبتستثمروا في أفضل الشركات okay هذه الـ
+
+471
+00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:45,340
+small investors والمهم كتير يتعرفوا عليهم The
+
+472
+00:42:45,340 --> 00:42:47,900
+capital market line is the capital allocation line
+
+473
+00:42:47,900 --> 00:42:50,660
+formed from one month's treasury bills and the
+
+474
+00:42:50,660 --> 00:42:55,800
+bond الـ capital market line اللي هو هذا هذا بيسموه
+
+475
+00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,220
+security market line وبعض الناس بيسموه capital
+
+476
+00:42:58,220 --> 00:43:02,600
+market line خط السوق بيعمل ranking للـ return و الـ
+
+477
+00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:06,080
+risk فأنت بدك risk عالي بتروح على العالي بدك risk
+
+478
+00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:08,960
+أقل بتروح على الأقل okay
+
+479
+00:43:12,750 --> 00:43:15,910
+والـ security market line تعمل من خلال استراتيجية
+
+480
+00:43:15,910 --> 00:43:19,530
+تتعلق بالاستثمار في بورتفوليو باسيف دي هذا
+
+481
+00:43:19,530 --> 00:43:22,650
+الـ security
+
+482
+00:43:22,650 --> 00:43:27,750
+market line بيخدمنا بشغل تان، virtual risk-free
+
+483
+00:43:27,750 --> 00:43:33,980
+shots ممكن نكون محافظة استثمارية قصيرة الأجل Okay
+
+484
+00:43:33,980 --> 00:43:36,400
+or a money market funds يعني اللي بده يستثمر
+
+485
+00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:39,460
+باستثمارات قصيرة الأجل بيقدر طبعا وين هتكون؟ هتكون
+
+486
+00:43:39,460 --> 00:43:44,220
+في المنطقة هذه هنستخدم الـ commercial paper اتنين a
+
+487
+00:43:44,220 --> 00:43:48,240
+fund of common stocks that mimics a broad market
+
+488
+00:43:48,240 --> 00:43:52,020
+index أو ممكن نستثمر في الـ long term وخاصة بالـ ..
+
+489
+00:43:52,020 --> 00:43:56,880
+بالـ .. بالـ stocks هيك بيكون احنا خلصنا الـ .. الـ
+
+490
+00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:57,420
+chapter هذا 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7bf9f0e5e9c3a9c25618e2603a8e0058e37e2c48
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 4717, "start": 22.27, "end": 47.17, "text": "بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اليوم ان شاء الله هن .. هنكمل كيف احنا نعمل construction ل portfolio construction يعني نعمل بناء لمحفظة استثمارية الهدف الرئيسي عشان احنا نبني محفظة استثمارية اتذكر دائما the main objective of building a particular portfolio is increase return", "tokens": [3555, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 45595, 20498, 16472, 13412, 16606, 21984, 8032, 1863, 4386, 8032, 1863, 24793, 1211, 9122, 33911, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 25957, 1211, 6435, 5296, 12583, 6435, 37495, 22653, 8717, 25957, 1211, 44945, 16606, 32767, 5016, 5172, 19913, 3660, 44713, 12984, 2304, 9640, 10632, 2423, 3224, 3215, 5172, 34892, 19986, 1829, 3794, 1829, 6225, 8592, 7649, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 3555, 22653, 3714, 5016, 5172, 19913, 3660, 44713, 12984, 2304, 9640, 10632, 1975, 2655, 8848, 37983, 11778, 16373, 15042, 264, 2135, 10024, 295, 2390, 257, 1729, 12583, 307, 3488, 2736], "avg_logprob": 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ناخد مثال عشان نشوف أهمية ال utility", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 30767, 1829, 19446, 1975, 5016, 8315, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 2423, 14877, 39894, 3794, 995, 45865, 2423, 5176, 2736, 295, 264, 1729, 12583, 1392, 3175, 1922, 295, 257, 11, 257, 307, 3148, 257, 29153, 293, 12771, 3732, 718, 311, 747, 341, 1365, 281, 536, 264, 7379, 295, 14877, 8717, 47283, 3215, 50113, 6027, 6225, 8592, 7649, 8717, 8592, 38688, 5551, 16095, 10632, 2423, 14877], "avg_logprob": -0.1565998072054849, "compression_ratio": 1.352112676056338, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 155.67, "end": 155.97, "word": "يعني", "probability": 0.9130859375}, {"start": 155.97, "end": 156.15, "word": " زي", "probability": 0.92236328125}, {"start": 156.15, "end": 156.23, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.9267578125}, {"start": 156.23, "end": 156.35, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8076171875}, {"start": 156.35, "end": 156.73, "word": " حكينا", "probability": 0.9202880859375}, {"start": 156.73, "end": 156.85, "word": " 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صفر", "probability": 0.87939453125}, {"start": 442.0, "end": 442.44, "word": " C", "probability": 0.98876953125}, {"start": 442.44, "end": 443.1, "word": " بصفر", "probability": 0.6937217712402344}, {"start": 443.1, "end": 444.04, "word": " B", "probability": 0.98876953125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 16, "seek": 47572, "start": 449.86, "end": 475.72, "text": "Okay it is very simple any questions so far حكينا احنا we have a portfolio with 1000$ محفظة ألف دولار we divided the portfolio into two parts يعني استثمرنا في في risk assets سميناها P", "tokens": [8297, 309, 307, 588, 2199, 604, 1651, 370, 1400, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 321, 362, 257, 12583, 365, 9714, 3, 3714, 5016, 5172, 19913, 3660, 5551, 46538, 11778, 12610, 9640, 321, 6666, 264, 12583, 666, 732, 3166, 37495, 22653, 44713, 12984, 29973, 8315, 8978, 8978, 3148, 9769, 8608, 2304, 1829, 8315, 11296, 430], "avg_logprob": -0.2058662259787844, "compression_ratio": 1.2391304347826086, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, 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501.94, "end": 502.74, "word": " what", "probability": 0.8916015625}, {"start": 502.74, "end": 502.88, "word": " it", "probability": 0.94775390625}, {"start": 502.88, "end": 503.1, "word": " means", "probability": 0.9375}, {"start": 503.1, "end": 503.48, "word": " RC", "probability": 0.82958984375}, {"start": 503.48, "end": 504.64, "word": " it", "probability": 0.890625}, {"start": 504.64, "end": 505.08, "word": " means", "probability": 0.9365234375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 18, "seek": 52548, "start": 505.86, "end": 525.48, "text": "والعادة لـ Complete Portfolio ماذا يعني Complete Portfolio؟ Portfolio يحتوي على أساتذة خطرية و أساتذة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة", "tokens": [2407, 6027, 3615, 18513, 3660, 5296, 39184, 34687, 6733, 7082, 1004, 3714, 45636, 995, 37495, 22653, 34687, 6733, 7082, 1004, 22807, 6733, 7082, 1004, 7251, 33753, 45865, 15844, 5551, 3794, 9307, 8848, 3660, 16490, 9566, 2288, 10632, 4032, 5551, 3794, 9307, 8848, 3660, 16490, 1211, 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510.84, "word": " Portfolio؟", "probability": 0.80792236328125}, {"start": 510.84, "end": 511.36, "word": " Portfolio", "probability": 0.8341471354166666}, {"start": 511.36, "end": 511.7, "word": " يحتوي", "probability": 0.5179850260416666}, {"start": 511.7, "end": 512.02, "word": " على", "probability": 0.78759765625}, {"start": 512.02, "end": 512.68, "word": " أساتذة", "probability": 0.408935546875}, {"start": 512.68, "end": 512.72, "word": " خطرية", "probability": 0.4789886474609375}, {"start": 512.72, "end": 513.02, "word": " و", "probability": 0.84130859375}, {"start": 513.02, "end": 513.82, "word": " أساتذة", "probability": 0.832177734375}, {"start": 513.82, "end": 513.82, "word": " خلطة", "probability": 0.58892822265625}, {"start": 513.82, "end": 513.82, "word": " خلطة", "probability": 0.77032470703125}, {"start": 513.82, "end": 513.82, "word": " خلطة", "probability": 0.817626953125}, {"start": 513.82, "end": 513.82, "word": " خلطة", "probability": 0.8668212890625}, {"start": 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{"id": 20, "seek": 57836, "start": 549.28, "end": 578.36, "text": "it is in the same way we do this y sigma b plus one minus y sigma f but be careful here انتبهوا يعني because this is we assume in this problem we assume that we ignore the correlation between between the free assets and risky assets يعني احنا اتجاهلنا اي ارتباط بيناتهم", "tokens": [270, 307, 294, 264, 912, 636, 321, 360, 341, 288, 12771, 272, 1804, 472, 3175, 288, 12771, 283, 457, 312, 5026, 510, 16472, 2655, 3555, 3224, 14407, 37495, 22653, 570, 341, 307, 321, 6552, 294, 341, 1154, 321, 6552, 300, 321, 11200, 264, 20009, 1296, 1296, 264, 1737, 9769, 293, 21137, 9769, 37495, 22653, 1975, 5016, 8315, 1975, 2655, 7435, 40294, 1211, 8315, 1975, 1829, 1975, 43500, 3555, 41193, 49374, 9307, 16095], "avg_logprob": -0.23030822244409013, "compression_ratio": 1.5245098039215685, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 549.28, "end": 549.5, "word": "it", "probability": 0.1563720703125}, {"start": 549.5, "end": 549.66, "word": 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Maximizing you depends on the structure of our portfolio Maximizing you depends on the structure of our portfolio It means how much we invest in risky assets and how much we invest in risky free assets", "tokens": [6462, 321, 393, 19874, 291, 30, 29076, 3319, 291, 5946, 322, 264, 3877, 295, 527, 12583, 29076, 3319, 291, 5946, 322, 264, 3877, 295, 527, 12583, 467, 1355, 577, 709, 321, 1963, 294, 21137, 9769, 293, 577, 709, 321, 1963, 294, 21137, 1737, 9769], "avg_logprob": -0.3024305476082696, "compression_ratio": 1.9152542372881356, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 635.4200000000001, "end": 636.1800000000001, "word": "How", "probability": 0.0933837890625}, {"start": 636.1800000000001, "end": 636.94, "word": " we", "probability": 0.272705078125}, {"start": 636.94, "end": 637.16, "word": " can", "probability": 0.76611328125}, {"start": 637.16, "end": 637.48, "word": " maximize", "probability": 0.68212890625}, {"start": 637.48, "end": 637.84, "word": " you?", "probability": 0.6005859375}, {"start": 641.06, "end": 641.82, "word": " Maximizing", "probability": 0.784423828125}, {"start": 641.82, "end": 642.08, "word": " you", "probability": 0.91259765625}, {"start": 642.08, "end": 642.58, "word": " depends", "probability": 0.8740234375}, {"start": 642.58, "end": 642.94, "word": " on", "probability": 0.94482421875}, {"start": 642.94, "end": 643.14, "word": " the", "probability": 0.900390625}, {"start": 643.14, "end": 643.58, "word": " structure", "probability": 0.8828125}, {"start": 643.58, "end": 643.92, "word": " of", "probability": 0.97412109375}, {"start": 643.92, "end": 644.22, "word": " our", "probability": 0.84423828125}, {"start": 644.22, "end": 645.8, "word": " portfolio", "probability": 0.91357421875}, {"start": 645.8, "end": 647.58, "word": " Maximizing", "probability": 0.5819091796875}, {"start": 647.58, "end": 647.9, "word": " you", "probability": 0.955078125}, {"start": 647.9, "end": 648.56, "word": " depends", "probability": 0.90869140625}, {"start": 648.56, "end": 648.86, "word": " on", "probability": 0.94921875}, {"start": 648.86, "end": 649.12, "word": " the", "probability": 0.91015625}, {"start": 649.12, "end": 649.74, "word": " structure", "probability": 0.876953125}, {"start": 649.74, "end": 650.24, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9736328125}, {"start": 650.24, "end": 650.8, "word": " our", "probability": 0.88818359375}, {"start": 650.8, "end": 651.42, "word": " portfolio", "probability": 0.953125}, {"start": 651.42, "end": 652.92, "word": " It", "probability": 0.2431640625}, {"start": 652.92, "end": 653.94, "word": " means", "probability": 0.908203125}, {"start": 653.94, "end": 654.7, "word": " how", "probability": 0.80615234375}, {"start": 654.7, "end": 654.96, "word": " much", "probability": 0.91943359375}, {"start": 654.96, "end": 655.12, "word": " we", "probability": 0.91748046875}, {"start": 655.12, "end": 655.5, "word": " invest", "probability": 0.86572265625}, {"start": 655.5, "end": 655.92, "word": " in", "probability": 0.947265625}, {"start": 655.92, "end": 656.4, "word": " risky", "probability": 0.818359375}, {"start": 656.4, "end": 656.8, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.8095703125}, {"start": 656.8, "end": 657.16, "word": " and", "probability": 0.84912109375}, {"start": 657.16, "end": 657.28, "word": " how", "probability": 0.86376953125}, {"start": 657.28, "end": 657.5, "word": " much", "probability": 0.908203125}, {"start": 657.5, "end": 657.66, "word": " we", "probability": 0.947265625}, {"start": 657.66, "end": 658.04, "word": " invest", "probability": 0.86279296875}, {"start": 658.04, "end": 658.42, "word": " in", "probability": 0.94677734375}, {"start": 658.42, "end": 659.08, "word": " risky", "probability": 0.68408203125}, {"start": 659.08, "end": 659.34, "word": " free", "probability": 0.7021484375}, {"start": 659.34, "end": 659.7, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.921875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 24, "seek": 68798, "start": 660.58, "end": 687.98, "text": "Okay. 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{"start": 1028.73, "end": 1030.07, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.471435546875}, {"start": 1030.07, "end": 1030.53, "word": " aversion", "probability": 0.792236328125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 37, "seek": 105630, "start": 1033.34, "end": 1056.3, "text": "كل ما بنبتعد عن ال zero when we go from left to right it means we become more risk aversion when we are closing to zero and passing the zero to the left become more risk lovers يعني احنا بنكون اكثر بنحب المخاطر تمام؟ هذه ال a", "tokens": [28820, 19446, 44945, 3555, 2655, 22488, 18871, 2423, 4018, 562, 321, 352, 490, 1411, 281, 558, 309, 1355, 321, 1813, 544, 3148, 257, 29153, 562, 321, 366, 10377, 281, 4018, 293, 8437, 264, 4018, 281, 264, 1411, 1813, 544, 3148, 22697, 37495, 22653, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 30544, 1975, 4117, 49115, 44945, 5016, 3555, 9673, 9778, 41193, 2288, 46811, 10943, 22807, 29538, 2423, 257], "avg_logprob": -0.16947115384615385, "compression_ratio": 1.489247311827957, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": 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"word": " to", "probability": 0.9716796875}, {"start": 1044.64, "end": 1045.04, "word": " zero", "probability": 0.8681640625}, {"start": 1045.04, "end": 1045.7, "word": " and", "probability": 0.93408203125}, {"start": 1045.7, "end": 1046.08, "word": " passing", "probability": 0.89599609375}, {"start": 1046.08, "end": 1046.32, "word": " the", "probability": 0.822265625}, {"start": 1046.32, "end": 1046.66, "word": " zero", "probability": 0.90478515625}, {"start": 1046.66, "end": 1046.94, "word": " to", "probability": 0.9765625}, {"start": 1046.94, "end": 1047.42, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9150390625}, {"start": 1047.42, "end": 1047.8, "word": " left", "probability": 0.82861328125}, {"start": 1047.8, "end": 1048.74, "word": " become", "probability": 0.5888671875}, {"start": 1048.74, "end": 1049.54, "word": " more", "probability": 0.94482421875}, {"start": 1049.54, "end": 1049.8, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.95654296875}, {"start": 1049.8, "end": 1050.24, "word": " lovers", "probability": 0.8857421875}, {"start": 1050.24, "end": 1051.5, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.89501953125}, {"start": 1051.5, "end": 1051.76, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9002278645833334}, {"start": 1051.76, "end": 1052.7, "word": " بنكون", "probability": 0.97607421875}, {"start": 1052.7, "end": 1053.14, "word": " اكثر", "probability": 0.87548828125}, {"start": 1053.14, "end": 1054.34, "word": " بنحب", "probability": 0.7984212239583334}, {"start": 1054.34, "end": 1054.9, "word": " المخاطر", "probability": 0.979248046875}, {"start": 1054.9, "end": 1055.88, "word": " تمام؟", "probability": 0.7142740885416666}, {"start": 1055.88, "end": 1056.04, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.488037109375}, {"start": 1056.04, "end": 1056.16, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9345703125}, {"start": 1056.16, "end": 1056.3, "word": " a", "probability": 0.54736328125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 38, "seek": 108492, "start": 1056.98, "end": 1084.92, "text": "و أعتقد أني قبل محاضرتين أحطيتكم what it means ايه، مظبوط ولا لأ؟ و أعطينا more explanation about this okay so now a it means clear now risk neutral يعني they don't care about risk مش سألنا السؤال هذا أحضرت انت قبل يومين risk neutral what it means they don't care about risk", "tokens": [2407, 5551, 34268, 28543, 14739, 1829, 12174, 36150, 3714, 5016, 46958, 43500, 9957, 5551, 5016, 9566, 36081, 24793, 437, 309, 1355, 1975, 1829, 3224, 12399, 3714, 19913, 3555, 2407, 9566, 49429, 5296, 10721, 22807, 4032, 5551, 3615, 9566, 1829, 8315, 544, 10835, 466, 341, 1392, 370, 586, 257, 309, 1355, 1850, 586, 3148, 10598, 37495, 22653, 436, 500, 380, 1127, 466, 3148, 37893, 8608, 10721, 1211, 8315, 21136, 33604, 6027, 23758, 5551, 5016, 11242, 43500, 16472, 2655, 12174, 36150, 7251, 20498, 9957, 3148, 10598, 437, 309, 1355, 436, 500, 380, 1127, 466, 3148], "avg_logprob": -0.2802526576721922, "compression_ratio": 1.5884955752212389, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1056.98, "end": 1057.18, "word": "و", "probability": 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"word": " how", "probability": 0.436767578125}, {"start": 1469.35, "end": 1469.67, "word": " much", "probability": 0.9375}, {"start": 1469.67, "end": 1469.87, "word": " you", "probability": 0.83837890625}, {"start": 1469.87, "end": 1470.29, "word": " invest", "probability": 0.85009765625}, {"start": 1470.29, "end": 1470.59, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9443359375}, {"start": 1470.59, "end": 1471.57, "word": " F", "probability": 0.435791015625}, {"start": 1471.57, "end": 1472.55, "word": " and", "probability": 0.8203125}, {"start": 1472.55, "end": 1472.69, "word": " how", "probability": 0.89453125}, {"start": 1472.69, "end": 1472.99, "word": " much", "probability": 0.9267578125}, {"start": 1472.99, "end": 1473.17, "word": " you", "probability": 0.87353515625}, {"start": 1473.17, "end": 1473.49, "word": " invest", "probability": 0.86376953125}, {"start": 1473.49, "end": 1473.67, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 1473.67, "end": 1473.93, "word": " P", "probability": 0.5908203125}, {"start": 1473.93, "end": 1475.91, "word": " جداش", "probability": 0.625244140625}, {"start": 1475.91, "end": 1476.13, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8562825520833334}, {"start": 1476.13, "end": 1476.63, "word": " بنستثمر", "probability": 0.883544921875}, {"start": 1476.63, "end": 1476.79, "word": " في", "probability": 0.9189453125}, {"start": 1476.79, "end": 1477.07, "word": " F", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 1477.07, "end": 1477.21, "word": " و", "probability": 0.583984375}, {"start": 1477.21, "end": 1477.43, "word": " جداش", "probability": 0.9747721354166666}, {"start": 1477.43, "end": 1477.59, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.958984375}, {"start": 1477.59, "end": 1478.03, "word": " بنستثمر", "probability": 0.9793701171875}, {"start": 1478.03, "end": 1478.15, "word": " في", "probability": 0.8310546875}, {"start": 1478.15, "end": 1478.59, "word": " P", "probability": 0.83056640625}, {"start": 1478.59, "end": 1479.15, "word": " and", 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the maximized utility تعتمد على maximized utility so we need to estimate the maximized utility pay attention here because this is important I don't need you to memorize the equations انا مانديش منكم تحفظوا المعادلات okay يا بابا انتبهوا إيش حكيته you don't need to memorize how I drive the equations", "tokens": [44510, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 25957, 1211, 35701, 24976, 983, 35701, 24976, 983, 309, 5946, 322, 264, 5138, 1602, 14877, 6055, 34268, 2304, 3215, 15844, 5138, 1602, 14877, 370, 321, 643, 281, 12539, 264, 5138, 1602, 14877, 1689, 3202, 510, 570, 341, 307, 1021, 286, 500, 380, 643, 291, 281, 27478, 264, 11787, 1975, 8315, 3714, 7649, 16254, 8592, 9154, 24793, 6055, 5016, 5172, 19913, 14407, 9673, 3615, 18513, 1211, 9307, 1392, 35186, 4724, 16758, 995, 16472, 2655, 3555, 3224, 14407, 11933, 1829, 8592, 11331, 4117, 36081, 3224, 291, 500, 380, 643, 281, 27478, 577, 286, 3332, 264, 11787], "avg_logprob": -0.17620668847962181, "compression_ratio": 1.7341269841269842, 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"word": " لازم", "probability": 0.9505208333333334}, {"start": 1574.85, "end": 1575.33, "word": " نستخدم", "probability": 0.9908447265625}, {"start": 1575.33, "end": 1575.45, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.93115234375}, {"start": 1575.45, "end": 1575.91, "word": " derivatives", "probability": 0.94580078125}, {"start": 1575.91, "end": 1578.59, "word": " derivatives", "probability": 0.55419921875}, {"start": 1578.59, "end": 1578.99, "word": " اسمها", "probability": 0.93603515625}, {"start": 1578.99, "end": 1579.49, "word": " مشتقة", "probability": 0.8009440104166666}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 58, "seek": 161064, "start": 1581.54, "end": 1610.64, "text": "تفاضل وتكامل طيب خلينا نركز مع بعض هان تبقوا مع بعض so u maximize u is equal to arc minus half a sigma square okay مظبوط ولا لأ الكلام هذا طيب هلان ليش نعوض", "tokens": [2655, 5172, 46958, 1211, 34683, 4117, 10943, 1211, 23032, 1829, 3555, 16490, 20292, 8315, 8717, 31747, 11622, 20449, 45030, 11242, 8032, 7649, 6055, 3555, 4587, 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"word": " هان", "probability": 0.708740234375}, {"start": 1588.12, "end": 1590.48, "word": " تبقوا", "probability": 0.58270263671875}, {"start": 1590.48, "end": 1590.6, "word": " مع", "probability": 0.99365234375}, {"start": 1590.6, "end": 1591.02, "word": " بعض", "probability": 0.996826171875}, {"start": 1591.02, "end": 1591.88, "word": " so", "probability": 0.35302734375}, {"start": 1591.88, "end": 1593.42, "word": " u", "probability": 0.2362060546875}, {"start": 1593.42, "end": 1594.24, "word": " maximize", "probability": 0.303466796875}, {"start": 1594.24, "end": 1594.8, "word": " u", "probability": 0.66748046875}, {"start": 1594.8, "end": 1596.36, "word": " is", "probability": 0.86083984375}, {"start": 1596.36, "end": 1596.76, "word": " equal", "probability": 0.8974609375}, {"start": 1596.76, "end": 1597.96, "word": " to", "probability": 0.64697265625}, {"start": 1597.96, "end": 1598.56, "word": " arc", "probability": 0.541015625}, {"start": 1598.56, "end": 1600.36, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.77099609375}, {"start": 1600.36, "end": 1601.62, "word": " half", "probability": 0.72607421875}, {"start": 1601.62, "end": 1602.94, "word": " a", "probability": 0.814453125}, {"start": 1602.94, "end": 1603.38, "word": " sigma", "probability": 0.88818359375}, {"start": 1603.38, "end": 1603.82, "word": " square", "probability": 0.556640625}, {"start": 1603.82, "end": 1605.8, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.56201171875}, {"start": 1605.8, "end": 1607.12, "word": " مظبوط", "probability": 0.85712890625}, {"start": 1607.12, "end": 1607.22, "word": " ولا", "probability": 0.75830078125}, {"start": 1607.22, "end": 1607.36, "word": " لأ", "probability": 0.900390625}, {"start": 1607.36, "end": 1607.64, "word": " الكلام", "probability": 0.9363606770833334}, {"start": 1607.64, "end": 1607.9, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.8935546875}, {"start": 1607.9, "end": 1609.46, "word": " طيب", "probability": 0.9029947916666666}, {"start": 1609.46, "end": 1610.02, "word": " هلان", "probability": 0.4407552083333333}, {"start": 1610.02, "end": 1610.16, "word": " ليش", "probability": 0.6610107421875}, {"start": 1610.16, "end": 1610.64, "word": " نعوض", "probability": 0.701171875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 59, "seek": 164191, "start": 1616.29, "end": 1641.91, "text": "بالمحاضرة الفاتة أخدنا ال ARC هتساوي إيش؟ هتساوي عندنا ال RF plus Y ذكرونا R minus RF okay RB minus RF مظبوط minus half", "tokens": [3555, 45340, 5016, 46958, 25720, 27188, 9307, 3660, 5551, 9778, 3215, 8315, 2423, 8943, 34, 8032, 2655, 3794, 995, 45865, 11933, 1829, 8592, 22807, 8032, 2655, 3794, 995, 45865, 43242, 8315, 2423, 26204, 1804, 398, 29910, 37983, 2407, 8315, 497, 3175, 26204, 1392, 40302, 3175, 26204, 3714, 19913, 3555, 2407, 9566, 3175, 1922], "avg_logprob": -0.2420428271094958, "compression_ratio": 1.3059701492537314, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 1616.29, "end": 1616.97, "word": "بالمحاضرة", "probability": 0.9361328125}, {"start": 1616.97, "end": 1617.31, "word": " الفاتة", "probability": 0.6700846354166666}, {"start": 1617.31, "end": 1617.91, "word": " أخدنا", "probability": 0.83416748046875}, {"start": 1617.91, "end": 1618.95, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.84326171875}, {"start": 1618.95, "end": 1619.59, "word": " ARC", "probability": 0.6612548828125}, {"start": 1619.59, "end": 1621.27, "word": " هتساوي", "probability": 0.8234375}, {"start": 1621.27, "end": 1623.15, "word": " إيش؟", "probability": 0.7828369140625}, {"start": 1623.15, "end": 1623.61, "word": " هتساوي", "probability": 0.96845703125}, {"start": 1623.61, "end": 1624.75, "word": " عندنا", "probability": 0.89501953125}, {"start": 1624.75, "end": 1626.45, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.8671875}, {"start": 1626.45, "end": 1626.93, "word": " RF", "probability": 0.677734375}, {"start": 1626.93, "end": 1630.43, "word": " plus", "probability": 0.60595703125}, {"start": 1630.43, "end": 1631.37, "word": " Y", "probability": 0.95654296875}, {"start": 1631.37, "end": 1632.81, "word": " ذكرونا", "probability": 0.6539306640625}, {"start": 1632.81, "end": 1633.25, "word": " R", "probability": 0.884765625}, {"start": 1633.25, "end": 1634.33, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.77734375}, {"start": 1634.33, "end": 1635.07, "word": " RF", "probability": 0.9755859375}, {"start": 1635.07, "end": 1636.23, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.51318359375}, {"start": 1636.23, "end": 1636.81, "word": " RB", "probability": 0.49072265625}, {"start": 1636.81, "end": 1637.25, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.94921875}, {"start": 1637.25, "end": 1637.75, "word": " RF", "probability": 0.98779296875}, {"start": 1637.75, "end": 1638.55, "word": " مظبوط", "probability": 0.8541015625}, {"start": 1638.55, "end": 1640.19, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.43017578125}, {"start": 1640.19, "end": 1641.91, "word": " half", "probability": 0.861328125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 60, "seek": 167087, "start": 1642.97, "end": 1670.87, "text": "احنا ايه سونا arc أخدناها الأول امبارح قولنا arc بتساوي RF plus Y RB minus RF هذا أخدناه فعوضناه انا بحكيلكم مش طالبكم في ال .. بس عشان .. اذا حد بيتابعنا في ال .. على الفيديو يشوف كيف احنا how we drive this", "tokens": [39319, 8315, 1975, 1829, 3224, 8608, 2407, 8315, 10346, 5551, 9778, 3215, 8315, 11296, 16247, 12610, 1975, 2304, 3555, 9640, 5016, 12174, 12610, 8315, 10346, 39894, 3794, 995, 45865, 26204, 1804, 398, 40302, 3175, 26204, 23758, 5551, 9778, 3215, 8315, 3224, 6156, 3615, 2407, 11242, 8315, 3224, 1975, 8315, 4724, 5016, 4117, 1829, 23275, 2304, 37893, 23032, 6027, 3555, 24793, 8978, 2423, 4386, 4724, 3794, 6225, 8592, 7649, 4386, 1975, 15730, 11331, 3215, 4724, 36081, 16758, 3615, 8315, 8978, 2423, 4386, 15844, 27188, 1829, 16254, 2407, 7251, 8592, 38688, 9122, 33911, 1975, 5016, 8315, 577, 321, 3332, 341], "avg_logprob": -0.22364267706871033, "compression_ratio": 1.5373831775700935, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1642.97, "end": 1643.29, "word": "احنا", "probability": 0.7010498046875}, 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مثلا زي مثلا شركة بتتوظف في الناس ال .. او طلاب الجدد", "tokens": [8297, 570, 264, 2142, 307, 19250, 1125, 420, 17833, 264, 6078, 4650, 281, 1080, 10493, 37495, 22653, 2423, 4386, 42963, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 5551, 9381, 15040, 4724, 13546, 2655, 3555, 2423, 4386, 2423, 4386, 2423, 21292, 7649, 9307, 34051, 25124, 31747, 9307, 11331, 35457, 2423, 10493, 6055, 3555, 4587, 36081, 11296, 6156, 15042, 41185, 8592, 11331, 26108, 3660, 14739, 3224, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 32887, 5016, 8717, 25957, 1211, 6055, 5016, 20292, 1211, 5296, 16095, 37495, 22653, 50113, 15040, 30767, 1829, 50113, 15040, 13412, 31747, 3660, 39894, 2655, 2407, 19913, 5172, 8978, 2423, 8315, 3794, 2423, 4386, 1975, 2407, 23032, 15040, 3555, 25724, 3215, 3215], "avg_logprob": -0.14099007594251187, "compression_ratio": 1.6147859922178989, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 2465.6, "end": 2465.98, "word": "Okay", "probability": 0.89990234375}, {"start": 2465.98, "end": 2466.66, "word": " 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"temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 95, "seek": 263742, "start": 2613.42, "end": 2637.42, "text": "Okay or a money market funds يعني اللي بده يستثمر باستثمارات قصيرة الأجر بيقدر طبعا وين هتكون؟ هتكون في المنطقة هذه هنستخدم ال commercial paper اتنين a fund of common stocks that mimics a broad market index او ممكن نستثمر في ال long term و خاصة بال .. بال .. بال stocks هيك بيكون احنا خلصنا ال .. ال chapter هذا", "tokens": [8297, 420, 257, 1460, 2142, 8271, 37495, 22653, 13672, 1829, 47525, 3224, 7251, 14851, 12984, 29973, 4724, 995, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 9307, 12174, 9381, 48923, 16247, 7435, 2288, 4724, 1829, 28543, 2288, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 4032, 9957, 8032, 2655, 30544, 22807, 8032, 2655, 30544, 8978, 9673, 1863, 9566, 28671, 29538, 8032, 1863, 14851, 9778, 40448, 2423, 6841, 3035, 1975, 2655, 1863, 9957, 257, 2374, 295, 2689, 12966, 300, 12247, 1167, 257, 4152, 2142, 8186, 1975, 2407, 3714, 43020, 8717, 14851, 12984, 29973, 8978, 2423, 938, 1433, 4032, 16490, 33546, 3660, 20666, 4386, 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{"start": 2627.0, "end": 2627.24, "word": " a", "probability": 0.92626953125}, {"start": 2627.24, "end": 2627.52, "word": " broad", "probability": 0.96044921875}, {"start": 2627.52, "end": 2628.24, "word": " market", "probability": 0.93115234375}, {"start": 2628.24, "end": 2628.94, "word": " index", "probability": 0.8828125}, {"start": 2628.94, "end": 2629.48, "word": " او", "probability": 0.7452392578125}, {"start": 2629.48, "end": 2629.68, "word": " ممكن", "probability": 0.983154296875}, {"start": 2629.68, "end": 2630.16, "word": " نستثمر", "probability": 0.986328125}, {"start": 2630.16, "end": 2630.3, "word": " في", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 2630.3, "end": 2630.34, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.6123046875}, {"start": 2630.34, "end": 2630.54, "word": " long", "probability": 0.92822265625}, {"start": 2630.54, "end": 2630.84, "word": " term", "probability": 0.76220703125}, {"start": 2630.84, "end": 2631.1, "word": " و", "probability": 0.97900390625}, {"start": 2631.1, 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..91bed5a9839cf18c03f6db8bcf272719efd33197
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1919 @@
+1
+00:00:20,690 --> 00:00:25,930
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم زي ما حكينا المرة الفاتة
+
+2
+00:00:25,930 --> 00:00:32,030
+this chapter talks about the market efficiency, okay
+
+3
+00:00:32,030 --> 00:00:37,190
+the hypothesis of market efficiency just pay 
+
+4
+00:00:37,190 --> 00:00:44,430
+attention here, the market efficiency, okay, the
+
+5
+00:00:44,430 --> 00:00:49,490
+market efficiency depends on the central idea that
+
+6
+00:00:50,470 --> 00:00:55,950
+الأسعار تتبع  السلوك العشوائي، الأسعار تتبع السلوك 
+
+7
+00:00:55,950 --> 00:00:59,730
+العشوائي، هذا يعني أن لا أحد يستطيع أن يتوقع أين
+
+8
+00:00:59,730 --> 00:01:06,770
+ستذهب الأسعار، يعني الأسعار ورايحه، هذا بالنسبة
+
+9
+00:01:06,770 --> 00:01:10,590
+لأن الأسعار
+
+10
+00:01:10,590 --> 00:01:17,150
+مجموعة كل المعلومات المتوفرة، Okay، يعني الأسعار كلها
+
+11
+00:01:17,150 --> 00:01:21,170
+بتأخذ بالاعتبار كل المعلومات المتاحة، this
+
+12
+00:01:21,170 --> 00:01:26,510
+information is like the insider information، يعني
+
+13
+00:01:26,510 --> 00:01:30,290
+المعلومات داخل الشركة، or the public information
+
+14
+00:01:31,550 --> 00:01:36,650
+لذلك السعر مجموعة كل هذه المعلومات وعندما يتم 
+
+15
+00:01:36,650 --> 00:01:42,390
+مجموعة كل هذه المعلومات، سنعتبر أن السوق مفيد، إذا
+
+16
+00:01:42,390 --> 00:01:46,910
+فالسوق لم يتم مجموعة كل هذه المعلومات، فالسوق غير
+
+17
+00:01:46,910 --> 00:01:53,150
+مفيد، ومرة أخرى كما قلت من قبل، إذا كان السوق مفيد 
+
+18
+00:01:53,150 --> 00:01:57,960
+فلا يوجد تقرير لسوق السوق، the prices follow the
+
+19
+00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:02,000
+random walk، يعني الأسعار بتتبع السلوك العشوائي
+
+20
+00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:07,240
+last night، الليلة الماضية، I tried to... to know
+
+21
+00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:11,820
+what is the essence of the random walk، يعني بدأ
+
+22
+00:02:11,820 --> 00:02:16,850
+أعرف من وين اجت كلمة الـ random walk، the random walk
+
+23
+00:02:16,850 --> 00:02:20,150
+is not coined in finance، ما اجتش من الـ finance
+
+24
+00:02:20,150 --> 00:02:24,530
+it's coined from the psychology science back to
+
+25
+00:02:24,530 --> 00:02:29,030
+1905، اجت من علم النفس في سنة الف تسعمائة وخمسة
+
+26
+00:02:29,030 --> 00:02:34,230
+and this random walk exactly when the drug takers
+
+27
+00:02:34,230 --> 00:02:37,950
+asking them to walk، يعني لما بيطلبوا من الـ drug
+
+28
+00:02:37,950 --> 00:02:43,230
+takers، يعني الناس الـ alcoholic، يعني الناس المدمنين
+
+29
+00:02:43,230 --> 00:02:47,790
+المخدرات وبتوع الكحول، فبيسألوهم يعني just walk
+
+30
+00:02:47,790 --> 00:02:52,190
+from here to the end، يعني امشوا من هنا لنهاية
+
+31
+00:02:52,190 --> 00:02:57,190
+الغرفة، so they are randomly walked، يعني بيمشوا
+
+32
+00:02:57,190 --> 00:03:01,010
+بطريقة إيش؟ عشوائية، So if you ask them to walk to
+
+33
+00:03:01,010 --> 00:03:04,150
+the... to the end of this room، So maybe they go
+
+34
+00:03:04,150 --> 00:03:07,910
+like this and go like this and this till to the
+
+35
+00:03:07,910 --> 00:03:12,150
+end، Or maybe not reach to the end، ممكن هم ما يوصلوش
+
+36
+00:03:12,150 --> 00:03:16,710
+لل... لل end، So there is no prediction of these
+
+37
+00:03:16,710 --> 00:03:23,050
+people how they walk، ما فيش حد بيستطيع يتنبأ، And in
+
+38
+00:03:23,050 --> 00:03:29,100
+... in finance، the... the movement of the price is
+
+39
+00:03:29,100 --> 00:03:33,240
+like the people who take the drugs، يعني حركة
+
+40
+00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,720
+الأسعار هي زي الناس اللي بياخدوا الـ drugs، okay
+
+41
+00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:42,200
+there is no prediction، but if these people wake up
+
+42
+00:03:43,980 --> 00:03:49,140
+so they... we can predict the... the behavior، يعني
+
+43
+00:03:49,140 --> 00:03:52,000
+إذا كانوا هدول الناس صحيح، نستطيع إن احنا نتنبأ
+
+44
+00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:57,280
+عنهم، and from the mathematic point of view، من وجهة
+
+45
+00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:04,760
+نظر الـ mathematics، من وجهة نظر رياضيات الـ random
+
+46
+00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:11,360
+walk is follow like this، x is the observation of
+
+47
+00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:20,460
+the price at t time is equal، alpha is for instance،
+
+48
+00:04:20,460 --> 00:04:30,930
+هي alpha plus x t minus one، إذا أردت أن أتوقع
+
+49
+00:04:30,930 --> 00:04:38,290
+الأسعار لليوم القادم، فالأمر يعني أسعار اليوم
+
+50
+00:04:38,290 --> 00:04:41,130
+الماضي أكثر من أبسلم
+
+51
+00:04:45,910 --> 00:04:51,010
+So the... the prices for tomorrow is a function of
+
+52
+00:04:51,010 --> 00:04:55,210
+the prices of yesterday plus the epsilon، what it
+
+53
+00:04:55,210 --> 00:04:58,830
+means epsilon، هي إيش بتعني epsilon، يعني الأسعار
+
+54
+00:04:58,830 --> 00:05:05,890
+بتاعة بكرا هي أسعار أو اليوم هي أسعار امبارح زائد
+
+55
+00:05:05,890 --> 00:05:07,110
+ال epsilon
+
+56
+00:05:10,990 --> 00:05:15,230
+يعني ممكن مثلا لو حكينا إنه ال... إيش السعر بتاع
+
+57
+00:05:15,230 --> 00:05:20,410
+اليوم is equal alpha... alpha ثابت plus XT minus
+
+58
+00:05:20,410 --> 00:05:24,590
+one، سعر امبارح كام كان؟ مثلا مائة دولار، plus
+
+59
+00:05:24,590 --> 00:05:32,890
+epsilon... epsilon is... is the error... error...
+
+60
+00:05:32,890 --> 00:05:37,310
+لسبب خطأ، this is... this epsilon is the random
+
+61
+00:05:37,310 --> 00:05:42,220
+walk، because if you know the one hundred is the
+
+62
+00:05:42,220 --> 00:05:45,440
+price of yesterday، إذا احنا عرفنا السعر بتاع امبارح
+
+63
+00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:49,940
+هو مائة دولار، what is the price today is a function
+
+64
+00:05:49,940 --> 00:05:54,300
+of the price yesterday plus the error، and error هي
+
+65
+00:05:54,300 --> 00:06:00,320
+is، وال error هان هي is randomly generated، randomly
+
+66
+00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:05,640
+generated، يعني هي بتيجي بطريقة عشوائية، for instance
+
+67
+00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:12,130
+it could be two، it could be one، it could be minus
+
+68
+00:06:12,130 --> 00:06:16,970
+one، it means in other ways it is minus alpha to
+
+69
+00:06:16,970 --> 00:06:20,770
+plus alpha، يعني
+
+70
+00:06:20,770 --> 00:06:23,970
+هي بتمتد من minus alpha to plus alpha، so nobody
+
+71
+00:06:23,970 --> 00:06:28,250
+knows what is the epsilon، ما حدش بيعرف ال epsilon
+
+72
+00:06:28,250 --> 00:06:33,110
+because it is randomly generated، لأنه هي randomly
+
+73
+00:06:33,110 --> 00:06:38,130
+generated، يعني بطريقة عشوائية، this is from the
+
+74
+00:06:38,130 --> 00:06:40,590
+mathematic point of view، هذه من وجهة نظر الـ
+
+75
+00:06:40,590 --> 00:06:43,770
+mathematics، and statisticians point of view، من
+
+76
+00:06:43,770 --> 00:06:49,170
+وجهة نظر الإحصاء، من وجهة نظر ال...
+
+77
+00:06:49,170 --> 00:06:55,970
+هذه معادلة الـ random walk، XT اللي هو السعر اللي
+
+78
+00:06:55,970 --> 00:07:00,090
+احنا نتوقعه بتساوي alpha، يعني خلينا لو جينا مثلا
+
+79
+00:07:00,090 --> 00:07:01,250
+okay
+
+80
+00:07:03,980 --> 00:07:08,900
+this is a random walk، some people they they think
+
+81
+00:07:08,900 --> 00:07:12,240
+this is not follow the random walk، because this
+
+82
+00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,360
+curve is أبواد، يعني طالع، but in general this is
+
+83
+00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:20,960
+randomly walked، يعني هذا بسلك طريقة عشوائية، no
+
+84
+00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,820
+prediction، for instance if you are here sitting
+
+85
+00:07:23,820 --> 00:07:27,380
+standing here، are you sure that the prices will go
+
+86
+00:07:27,380 --> 00:07:31,740
+down or go up، you don't know because
+
+87
+00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:38,540
+the prices is a function of the epsilon، لأن
+
+88
+00:07:38,540 --> 00:07:42,080
+الأسعار هي دالة في الـ epsilon، الـ epsilon هي
+
+89
+00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:53,900
+randomly generated، okay، so
+
+90
+00:07:53,900 --> 00:07:59,340
+this is the... the meaning of the random walk، هذا
+
+91
+00:07:59,340 --> 00:08:00,440
+مفهوم الـ random walk
+
+92
+00:08:04,180 --> 00:08:08,300
+الطريقة العشوائية في صورة الأسعار، if again if the
+
+93
+00:08:08,300 --> 00:08:12,660
+prices follow the random walk، so the market is
+
+94
+00:08:12,660 --> 00:08:17,960
+efficient، الأسعار بتكون efficient، if it is not، so
+
+95
+00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:23,420
+the market is not efficient، okay، so stock prices
+
+96
+00:08:23,420 --> 00:08:28,270
+follow a random walk، and this is example how this
+
+97
+00:08:28,270 --> 00:08:33,550
+in in the day of the news which is zero when they
+
+98
+00:08:33,550 --> 00:08:38,150
+announce the news، nobody know where is this news
+
+99
+00:08:38,150 --> 00:08:41,270
+announced، ما حدش بيعرف وين الأسعار هتطلع، وين
+
+100
+00:08:41,270 --> 00:08:45,930
+المعلومات هتطلع، and because of this no one can
+
+101
+00:08:45,930 --> 00:08:50,110
+predict the behavior of the price، وما حدش بيقدر
+
+102
+00:08:50,110 --> 00:08:57,440
+يتنبأ الأسعار وين هتروح، Okay، and في... في كثير
+
+103
+00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,960
+examples، في ال... يعني هلأ مثلا بيحكوا على ال...
+
+104
+00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:04,960
+إيران ومشاكل إيران، رغم هيك إنه أسعار الدهب خفتت
+
+105
+00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:10,320
+صح ولا لأ؟ وبتسألي يعني... if you want to talk
+
+106
+00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,280
+about the war in Iran، it means the gold prices
+
+107
+00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:17,780
+should jump، يعني أسعار الدهب لازم ترتفع، but now
+
+108
+00:09:17,780 --> 00:09:24,800
+the gold prices is going down، nobody knows، ما حدش
+
+109
+00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:27,520
+بتوقع اللي بيصير في الأسعار، this is the market، why
+
+110
+00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:33,240
+why nobody can predict، because why it is random
+
+111
+00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:39,040
+walk، ليش random walk، because because all of the
+
+112
+00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,560
+information، because all of the information is
+
+113
+00:09:42,560 --> 00:09:46,380
+reflected in in the prices، even the new
+
+114
+00:09:46,380 --> 00:09:49,960
+information is reflected in the prices، and the
+
+115
+00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:55,100
+prices is expected the future behavior، كمان أسعار
+
+116
+00:09:55,100 --> 00:10:00,000
+بتتنبأ للمستقبل، وهذا مش موجود عند الأفراد، تمام؟
+
+117
+00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:04,020
+and this is example of the random walk of the
+
+118
+00:10:04,020 --> 00:10:05,380
+behavior of the
+
+119
+00:10:10,140 --> 00:10:14,580
+as I explained the competition is one of the
+
+120
+00:10:14,580 --> 00:10:20,460
+source of the market efficiency، المنافسة، المنافسة
+
+121
+00:10:20,460 --> 00:10:27,000
+بين الـ investors regarding the information، يعني
+
+122
+00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:30,720
+المنافسة بينهم حاولوا الحصول على المعلومات، some
+
+123
+00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,840
+investors they have precious information، they have
+
+124
+00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,820
+private information، and others they don't have
+
+125
+00:10:36,820 --> 00:10:39,460
+وبعض الناس ما عندهمش معلومات
+
+126
+00:10:41,690 --> 00:10:44,370
+So in the strong competition, I choose prices
+
+127
+00:10:44,370 --> 00:10:49,490
+reflect information فلما يكون عندي أنا strong 
+
+128
+00:10:49,490 --> 00:10:53,230
+competition between the investors لأنه ال
+
+129
+00:10:53,230 --> 00:10:57,290
+investors, they spend money and time in analyzing
+
+130
+00:10:57,290 --> 00:11:02,770
+the information يعني بي .. بيندوا وقت طويل و
+
+131
+00:11:02,770 --> 00:11:07,350
+بيدفعوا فلوس حتى يحللوا المعلومات and to get a new
+
+132
+00:11:07,350 --> 00:11:13,290
+information و يحصلوا على معلومات جديدة once they
+
+133
+00:11:13,290 --> 00:11:16,890
+uncover this information .. once they locate this
+
+134
+00:11:16,890 --> 00:11:20,850
+information, the .. the prices already reflected
+
+135
+00:11:20,850 --> 00:11:23,750
+this price .. this information, so what is the
+
+136
+00:11:23,750 --> 00:11:27,550
+reason of spending time and money in collecting the
+
+137
+00:11:27,550 --> 00:11:30,870
+information and the prices are already reflected 
+
+138
+00:11:30,870 --> 00:11:34,410
+this information يعني أن بعض الناس بيروح ب .. ب ..
+
+139
+00:11:34,410 --> 00:11:38,230
+ب .. بنفقوا أموال و فلوس و وقت و .. و .. حتى
+
+140
+00:11:38,230 --> 00:11:41,570
+يحصلوا على معلومات و حتى لما يجدوا المعلومات أصلا
+
+141
+00:11:41,570 --> 00:11:44,490
+أسعار reflected this information, so there is no
+
+142
+00:11:44,490 --> 00:11:47,890
+reason, مافيش داعي أن احنا ندور على هذه المعلومات
+
+143
+00:11:47,890 --> 00:11:53,730
+لأن في الآخر المعلومات موجودة في السعر نفسه، okay
+
+144
+00:11:53,730 --> 00:11:57,670
+هذا حسب ال efficient market hypothesis, efficient
+
+145
+00:11:57,670 --> 00:12:03,570
+market hypothesis, فبيصير competition between the
+
+146
+00:12:03,570 --> 00:12:07,350
+investors to collect this private information, بيصير
+
+147
+00:12:07,350 --> 00:12:11,930
+منافسة بين ال investors حتى يجمعوا البيانات, the
+
+148
+00:12:11,930 --> 00:12:15,370
+more the competition is, the more the efficient
+
+149
+00:12:15,370 --> 00:12:20,290
+price, كل مكان فيه منافسة أكثر كل مكان ال price is
+
+150
+00:12:20,290 --> 00:12:26,410
+efficient, لأنه بتكون المعلومات أكثر and the
+
+151
+00:12:26,410 --> 00:12:29,510
+information is available to the public, but
+
+152
+00:12:29,510 --> 00:12:36,110
+sometimes one of the investors discovers a
+
+153
+00:12:36,110 --> 00:12:39,530
+particular information, let's take this example
+
+154
+00:12:39,530 --> 00:12:44,760
+here, a particular investor spending time and money 
+
+155
+00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:49,060
+and locates information يعني بذل جهد و وقت حتى يحصل
+
+156
+00:12:49,060 --> 00:12:53,140
+على معلومات, he 
+
+157
+00:12:53,140 --> 00:12:55,620
+only can use this new information for one time
+
+158
+00:12:55,620 --> 00:13:00,640
+يعني حتى لو حصل على هذه المعلومات بس بيستطيع
+
+159
+00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:05,400
+يستخدمها مرة واحدة، why? Because once he or she uses
+
+160
+00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:09,310
+this information, the price is reflected in this new
+
+161
+00:13:09,310 --> 00:13:13,330
+information, and he or she cannot use this again
+
+162
+00:13:13,330 --> 00:13:18,890
+يعني هو اكتشف طريقة مثلا لدى
+
+163
+00:13:18,890 --> 00:13:22,350
+سلوك سعر أو طريقة أو معلومة معينة فهو هيستخدم
+
+164
+00:13:22,350 --> 00:13:26,060
+هيروح يشتري مثلا، فهو استخدمها مرة واحدة، مش هيروح
+
+165
+00:13:26,060 --> 00:13:30,520
+يستخدمها كمان مرة لأن السوق عرف هذه المعلومة, and
+
+166
+00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,360
+this information is publicly available, و هذه
+
+167
+00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:39,020
+المعلومات هي متوفرة بشكل .. خلينا نشوف مثلا واحد
+
+168
+00:13:39,020 --> 00:13:45,180
+من ال investors .. ال investors شافها ال .. شافها
+
+169
+00:13:45,180 --> 00:13:50,600
+الطريقة هذه، what do you think about this .. this
+
+170
+00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:50,980
+chart?
+
+171
+00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:00,160
+Look at this chart, اتطلعوا على هذا ال .. ال chart
+
+172
+00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:03,640
+and
+
+173
+00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,660
+this was pay their attention to understand this
+
+174
+00:14:06,660 --> 00:14:11,660
+chart, ف if they understand or if they discover
+
+175
+00:14:11,660 --> 00:14:15,800
+something in this chart, the markets will reflect
+
+176
+00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:20,020
+this again, يعني السوق هيعرف أن هدول عرفوا هيغيروا
+
+177
+00:14:20,020 --> 00:14:22,940
+السلوك تبع السعر، خلينا نشوف إيش .. what you
+
+178
+00:14:22,940 --> 00:14:25,440
+observe in this chart?
+
+179
+00:14:29,550 --> 00:14:34,570
+What you observe in this chart? أوكي إيش .. إيش
+
+180
+00:14:34,570 --> 00:14:39,270
+you observe? أول شيء كان عندنا الأسعار up، كان أول
+
+181
+00:14:39,270 --> 00:14:42,770
+الحالة صغيرة، وبعدها اتبارك إيه هي random one, okay
+
+182
+00:14:42,770 --> 00:14:50,590
+Okay
+
+183
+00:14:50,590 --> 00:14:54,770
+ممكن
+
+184
+00:14:54,770 --> 00:15:00,800
+شوف ناس ثانيين، شوفوا إيش رأيكم بال .. why you
+
+185
+00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:05,900
+observe in this? و
+
+186
+00:15:05,900 --> 00:15:11,400
+طب فاطمة ما حكتش صح، أخو
+
+187
+00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,280
+تخافوش، إيش .. إيش بتشوفه في الرسمة هاي؟ Very
+
+188
+00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:21,280
+simple, رسمة سهلة وما بدهاش فضل، أول حاجة كانت إنه
+
+189
+00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:27,110
+طريقة أسعار كل طوابق جامعة، بممكن أن يفهمها ال
+
+190
+00:15:27,110 --> 00:15:32,430
+teacher، كيف هيفهمها إن
+
+191
+00:15:32,430 --> 00:15:37,170
+هو أنا ال teacher إن هو حق خلاص وصدقني ساعد في ال
+
+192
+00:15:37,170 --> 00:15:43,630
+top، when when it is he in the top، لأ أنا بحكي لك
+
+193
+00:15:43,630 --> 00:15:44,750
+دستاني، okay, okay
+
+194
+00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:06,480
+Okay, خلينا نسهل كمان، سهل، شايفين، اقبعوا، just depict
+
+195
+00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:09,700
+this chart, اقبعوه في رأسكم، بدا امحي جزء من ال
+
+196
+00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:17,490
+chart، okay، طيب، امحيت الجزء 1، بتقدر تعمل prediction
+
+197
+00:16:17,490 --> 00:16:22,850
+for the .. the next? بتعرف إيه؟ لو أنا نفسي أقصدها
+
+198
+00:16:22,850 --> 00:16:28,350
+أكمل نفس الفرق، لكن لو أنا نفسي أقصدها أكمل نفس
+
+199
+00:16:28,350 --> 00:16:33,470
+الفرق، اه، okay، برجيني عشان نشوف، if you discover
+
+200
+00:16:33,470 --> 00:16:42,030
+this، اقرص
+
+201
+00:16:42,030 --> 00:16:46,980
+برا اسمها، feel free، يعني فاهم ليها لما أنا بغمض هنا
+
+202
+00:16:46,980 --> 00:16:51,440
+يعني .. خلاص؟ لكن لو أنا .. لو أنا بتحكي أسعارك
+
+203
+00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,840
+اللي هتاخدها أو إن ال .. اكتشف ال investor، فهغير
+
+204
+00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:59,600
+في السؤال .. okay، شكرا، هلأ خلينا نشوف، this is why
+
+205
+00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:03,480
+.. this is why investors, they spend time and money
+
+206
+00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,820
+in understanding this information، هذه معلومات
+
+207
+00:17:07,820 --> 00:17:15,130
+موجودة، فهم هي .. احنا طبعا محينا الجزء هذا، صح؟ طيب
+
+208
+00:17:15,130 --> 00:17:19,010
+لو احنا طلعنا عن الرسمة بتاعتك، كانت الرسمة هيك، صح؟
+
+209
+00:17:19,010 --> 00:17:25,970
+This is your chart, بقى ال investors بيحاولوا to see
+
+210
+00:17:25,970 --> 00:17:32,430
+things that other people don't see, this هم هيشوفوا
+
+211
+00:17:32,430 --> 00:17:36,110
+شغل الناس الثاني مش شوفوه، once they observe this
+
+212
+00:17:36,110 --> 00:17:40,370
+and the financial market knows this, the financial
+
+213
+00:17:40,370 --> 00:17:45,690
+market considers this، يعني إذا هم اكتشفوا شغلها في
+
+214
+00:17:45,690 --> 00:17:50,870
+السوق، الناس ثانية مش عارفينها، فالسوق المالي مجرد
+
+215
+00:17:50,870 --> 00:17:54,710
+ما هدول ال investors يكتشفوها فهيروح يعدل المسار
+
+216
+00:17:54,710 --> 00:18:00,250
+تبعه ويمشي بطريقة ثانية بحيث ما حدش يعرف، زي ما أنت
+
+217
+00:18:00,250 --> 00:18:03,410
+حكيت إنه ممكن يكون هكذا، بس خلينا نعطيكي معلومة
+
+218
+00:18:03,410 --> 00:18:09,310
+شوية إضافية، لو احنا طلعنا هنا one، أعطينا مثلا one
+
+219
+00:18:09,310 --> 00:18:10,610
+okay
+
+220
+00:18:17,900 --> 00:18:22,680
+The price، هذا هو ال price، ال time، ال time، وهذا ال
+
+221
+00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:27,780
+time، وهذا ال price، okay، هلأ عدوا هان، one، two، three
+
+222
+00:18:27,780 --> 00:18:37,340
+بعد the third one، the prices are going down، okay
+
+223
+00:18:37,340 --> 00:18:44,720
+Then it should behave like this، so one، two، three
+
+224
+00:18:46,730 --> 00:18:53,790
+and going down، so one، two، three، يعني هايكتشف واحد
+
+225
+00:18:53,790 --> 00:18:57,190
+من ال investors أن هدول عملوا تلت مرات وبعدين is 
+
+226
+00:18:57,190 --> 00:19:01,290
+going down، هيعملوا تلت مرات and going down، once
+
+227
+00:19:01,290 --> 00:19:05,850
+they discover this trend، مباشرة ما هم يكتشفوا هذا
+
+228
+00:19:05,850 --> 00:19:09,750
+ال trend، ال financial markets after this will
+
+229
+00:19:09,750 --> 00:19:11,310
+behave like .. like this
+
+230
+00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,540
+ال financial market هيجي ويغير بطريقة أخرى
+
+231
+00:19:18,540 --> 00:19:23,380
+because it's been discovered by the .. by a
+
+232
+00:19:23,380 --> 00:19:26,960
+particular investor، يعني لأنه تم اكتشافها بطريقة
+
+233
+00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:31,700
+ال particular investors، okay، in this way .. in
+
+234
+00:19:31,700 --> 00:19:35,340
+this way the financial market beats all of the
+
+235
+00:19:35,340 --> 00:19:38,420
+market participants، يعني السوق المالي بهزم الكل
+
+236
+00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,520
+because you just one time you can make the
+
+237
+00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,960
+abnormal return, but next time you cannot do this
+
+238
+00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,760
+يعني أنت هتعمل مرة واحدة ال abnormal return بس
+
+239
+00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:55,300
+المرة اللي بعديها مش هتعرف، ال financial
+
+240
+00:19:55,300 --> 00:19:59,860
+market، yes, because it is efficient market, how this
+
+241
+00:19:59,860 --> 00:20:02,580
+needs some mathematical and some statistics to
+
+242
+00:20:02,580 --> 00:20:10,670
+prove this، كيف طبعا نحتاج شوية mathematics مع شوية
+
+243
+00:20:10,670 --> 00:20:15,530
+رياضيات عشان أوريكي فعلا they can predict this
+
+244
+00:20:15,530 --> 00:20:23,690
+okay, and
+
+245
+00:20:23,690 --> 00:20:29,150
+the second things because the investors think the
+
+246
+00:20:29,150 --> 00:20:33,230
+more information that they have, the more return
+
+247
+00:20:33,230 --> 00:20:36,580
+they can get، كل ما بيكون عندهم معلومات أكثر بيكون
+
+248
+00:20:36,580 --> 00:20:40,280
+عندهم عائد أكثر، So it is .. it is from their point
+
+249
+00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:44,280
+of view, it is valuable to spend time and .. and
+
+250
+00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:49,240
+money in collecting private information, and 
+
+251
+00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,220
+understanding this information عشان هيك it is
+
+252
+00:20:52,220 --> 00:20:56,080
+reasonable to them to .. to know about this
+
+253
+00:20:56,080 --> 00:21:01,330
+private information يعني بيصير كتير انهم يستثمروا 
+
+254
+00:21:01,330 --> 00:21:04,950
+في هذه المعلومات ليش؟ لأنهم بيعتقدوا انه جمع
+
+255
+00:21:04,950 --> 00:21:10,010
+المعلومات giving them the advantage of getting
+
+256
+00:21:10,010 --> 00:21:13,330
+higher return بيعطيهم ميزة انهم بيحصلوا على  أعلى
+
+257
+00:21:13,330 --> 00:21:18,970
+return the 
+
+258
+00:21:18,970 --> 00:21:22,570
+marginal .. the problem is now and we will address
+
+259
+00:21:22,570 --> 00:21:28,860
+this problem in the future the small investors it
+
+260
+00:21:28,860 --> 00:21:33,060
+is costly for the small investors to look for
+
+261
+00:21:33,060 --> 00:21:38,040
+information for instance if we have one investor
+
+262
+00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:45,460
+with 1000$ to invest so our question is how much
+
+263
+00:21:45,460 --> 00:21:51,400
+he needs to look for information but if we have
+
+264
+00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:57,940
+investor B with millions of dollars so it is worth
+
+265
+00:21:57,940 --> 00:22:02,540
+for him or her to gathering information يعني إذا
+
+266
+00:22:02,540 --> 00:22:06,180
+أنا مستثمر معاه بس ألف دولار و بده يروح يدور على
+
+267
+00:22:06,180 --> 00:22:10,060
+معلومات في يعني بده يضيع الفلوس تبعته و يدور على
+
+268
+00:22:10,060 --> 00:22:15,990
+المعلومات but for this investor B he or she has one
+
+269
+00:22:15,990 --> 00:22:20,690
+million and if he just spent one percent of the
+
+270
+00:22:20,690 --> 00:22:25,090
+one million it's worth for them so what is the
+
+271
+00:22:25,090 --> 00:22:28,930
+solution for the investor A؟ ايش الحالة investor
+
+272
+00:22:28,930 --> 00:22:33,050
+A؟ the solution for the investor A is to go to the
+
+273
+00:22:33,050 --> 00:22:38,630
+mutual funds لازم يروح على ال mutual funds because
+
+274
+00:22:38,630 --> 00:22:43,740
+the mutual fund managers mutual fund managers are
+
+275
+00:22:43,740 --> 00:22:47,500
+specialized in collecting data and they can get
+
+276
+00:22:47,500 --> 00:22:50,700
+benefits from the economies of scale يعني
+
+277
+00:22:50,700 --> 00:22:53,680
+بيستفيدوا كمان من شغلة اسمها economies of scale
+
+278
+00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:57,180
+اللي هو حجم الاقتصاد الكبير لإن في كتير investors
+
+279
+00:22:57,180 --> 00:23:03,120
+with 1000$ لإن في هيكون في investors ب1000$ هيروح
+
+280
+00:23:03,120 --> 00:23:06,020
+يودوا ال 1000$ هاي ل الmutual funds و الmutual
+
+281
+00:23:06,020 --> 00:23:09,360
+funds it is worth with them to look for
+
+282
+00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:14,840
+information okay لذلك تجارب التجارب على عملية
+
+283
+00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,080
+التحقيق يمكن أن تكون صغيرة جدًا لإن مدير أكبر
+
+284
+00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:24,660
+شركات تجاربها ستجدها قيمة لهم فقط لأكبر عملية
+
+285
+00:23:24,660 --> 00:23:31,840
+تجاربها كما تشاهد هنا هي قيمة لهم للجمع والتحقق
+
+286
+00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:36,020
+والتحقق من المعلومات ولكن لأشخاص فقط بواسطة ألف
+
+287
+00:23:36,020 --> 00:23:40,180
+دولار صعب عليهم التجارب والتحقق والتحقق من
+
+288
+00:23:40,180 --> 00:23:45,010
+المعلومات يعني المستثمرين الكبار كويس لهم أنهم
+
+289
+00:23:45,010 --> 00:23:48,570
+يجمعوا معلومات و يحللوها لأنهم بيستخدموا منطق
+
+290
+00:23:48,570 --> 00:23:53,190
+الوفرة الاقتصادية الكبيرة أو حجم الاقتصاد الكبير
+
+291
+00:23:53,190 --> 00:23:58,170
+لكن بالنسبة لل investors الصغار المستثمرين الصغار
+
+292
+00:23:58,170 --> 00:24:04,390
+it cost them هتكلفهم كتير okay so this is why the
+
+293
+00:24:04,390 --> 00:24:08,030
+small investors are recommended to invest their
+
+294
+00:24:08,030 --> 00:24:11,510
+money with the mutual fund managers عشان هيك احنا
+
+295
+00:24:11,510 --> 00:24:16,130
+بننصح المستثمر الصغير يروحوا ل mutual funds لأو
+
+296
+00:24:16,130 --> 00:24:21,750
+صندوق الاستثمار okay in the light of this
+
+297
+00:24:21,750 --> 00:24:25,770
+understanding and in the light of the random walk
+
+298
+00:24:25,770 --> 00:24:33,490
+our question is بدوء المفهوم ال random walk and
+
+299
+00:24:33,490 --> 00:24:37,690
+the efficient market hypothesis ومفهوم النظرية
+
+300
+00:24:37,690 --> 00:24:42,310
+الأسواق الكفوة we can categorize the markets into
+
+301
+00:24:42,310 --> 00:24:46,550
+three main forms or versions ممكن نقسم الأسواق إلى
+
+302
+00:24:46,550 --> 00:24:51,050
+ثلاثة أنواع من الأسواق حسب الكفاءة some people they
+
+303
+00:24:51,050 --> 00:24:54,850
+don't believe that the market is efficient بعض
+
+304
+00:24:54,850 --> 00:24:57,070
+الناس ما بيقبلوش أن السوق is efficient we can
+
+305
+00:24:57,070 --> 00:25:01,010
+predict the prices we can know what is going in
+
+306
+00:25:01,010 --> 00:25:04,390
+the financial markets ممكن نعرف شو بيصير في ال
+
+307
+00:25:04,390 --> 00:25:07,030
+financial markets we can predict what is the
+
+308
+00:25:07,030 --> 00:25:12,090
+prices for tomorrow ممكن نعرف الأسعار بكرا if we
+
+309
+00:25:12,090 --> 00:25:14,790
+know the prices for tomorrow it means we are
+
+310
+00:25:14,790 --> 00:25:18,490
+working in the inefficient markets إذا احنا بنعرف
+
+311
+00:25:18,490 --> 00:25:21,390
+شو بيصير بكرا يعني الكلام .. this is inefficient
+
+312
+00:25:21,390 --> 00:25:26,670
+markets so again some people or some investors and
+
+313
+00:25:26,670 --> 00:25:31,090
+some academic people some big professors think the
+
+314
+00:25:31,090 --> 00:25:40,810
+market is not efficient back to 1965 يوجين فاما he
+
+315
+00:25:40,810 --> 00:25:43,070
+was the first one to prove that the market is
+
+316
+00:25:43,070 --> 00:25:46,530
+efficient كان أول واحد أثبت أنه ال market
+
+317
+00:25:46,530 --> 00:25:50,910
+efficient هو يوجين فاما واحد من أكبر كتاب ال
+
+318
+00:25:50,910 --> 00:25:56,070
+financial management هو أثبت أنه السوق المالي كفء
+
+319
+00:25:56,070 --> 00:26:00,430
+some other authors after him they proved that the
+
+320
+00:26:00,430 --> 00:26:05,350
+market is not efficient So in the light of all of
+
+321
+00:26:05,350 --> 00:26:09,330
+these arguments في ضوء كل هال arguments و
+
+322
+00:26:09,330 --> 00:26:12,790
+هالنقاشات and discussion We have three main levels
+
+323
+00:26:12,790 --> 00:26:18,990
+of the market efficiency We have a weak, we have
+
+324
+00:26:18,990 --> 00:26:24,950
+semi-strong and we have the strong The main issue
+
+325
+00:26:24,950 --> 00:26:30,330
+that makes us to judge whether this market is weak
+
+326
+00:26:30,330 --> 00:26:33,850
+or strong or semi-strong is the availability of
+
+327
+00:26:33,850 --> 00:26:38,330
+the information يعني الشغل اللي بتخليني أميز أنه
+
+328
+00:26:38,330 --> 00:26:45,510
+هذا is weak ضعيف semi-strong شبه قوي قوي هو مدى
+
+329
+00:26:45,510 --> 00:26:50,710
+availability of information مدى توفر المعلومات for
+
+330
+00:26:50,710 --> 00:26:55,230
+instance if you look at the weak markets إذا احنا
+
+331
+00:26:55,230 --> 00:26:59,730
+نظرنا لل weak markets the weak market is only
+
+332
+00:26:59,730 --> 00:27:04,990
+reflected the historical prices يعني
+
+333
+00:27:04,990 --> 00:27:11,890
+ال weak market السوق الضعيف فقط بيعكس الأسعار
+
+334
+00:27:11,890 --> 00:27:18,670
+السابقة that's it the past historical prices and
+
+335
+00:27:18,670 --> 00:27:23,920
+the trading volume as well the historical prices
+
+336
+00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:31,380
+الأسعار و ال trading volume حجم التداول okay and
+
+337
+00:27:31,380 --> 00:27:35,960
+based on this understanding or based on the weak
+
+338
+00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:41,120
+form hypothesis it means there is no worth to use
+
+339
+00:27:41,120 --> 00:27:48,460
+the chart ما فيش أهمية لاستخدام ال chart اللي هو
+
+340
+00:27:48,460 --> 00:27:52,370
+الرسومات البيانية some people they they think
+
+341
+00:27:52,370 --> 00:27:57,910
+mistakenly think that the weak form hypothesis not
+
+342
+00:27:57,910 --> 00:28:02,270
+reflected the historical prices ده ناس بيتوقعوا أنه
+
+343
+00:28:02,270 --> 00:28:05,550
+ما ال ال weak form ما بيعكسش ال historical prices
+
+344
+00:28:05,550 --> 00:28:12,650
+but the weak form hypothesis is reflected the weak
+
+345
+00:28:12,650 --> 00:28:21,020
+form prices Based on this and the people who
+
+346
+00:28:21,020 --> 00:28:26,320
+believe that the market is inefficient mistakenly
+
+347
+00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:30,180
+use the charts بيستخدموا ال charts I will give you
+
+348
+00:28:30,180 --> 00:28:32,980
+example of these charts يعني خليني أعطيكم مثال على
+
+349
+00:28:32,980 --> 00:28:38,180
+هاي ال charts يعني ناس خطأ بعتقدوا أن ال weak form
+
+350
+00:28:38,180 --> 00:28:41,960
+مبنية 
+
+351
+00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:48,480
+على ال chart it means we can predict يعني احنا زي
+
+352
+00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:54,640
+ما أنتو شايفين مثلا بال .. بالشكل بالشكل
+
+353
+00:28:54,640 --> 00:29:00,880
+هذا أن احنا we can use the resistance and support
+
+354
+00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,000
+مفهوم ال resistance وال support مفهوم ال
+
+355
+00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:05,900
+resistance وال support اللي هو نقاط الدعم
+
+356
+00:29:05,900 --> 00:29:10,740
+والمقاومة يعني
+
+357
+00:29:10,740 --> 00:29:19,240
+مثلا احنا لو اجينا أخذنا chart like this
+
+358
+00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:23,740
+and based on the weak form hypothesis وبناء على ال
+
+359
+00:29:23,740 --> 00:29:28,420
+weak form hypothesis we can predict the prices بس
+
+360
+00:29:28,420 --> 00:29:33,280
+هذا اعتقاد خاطئ الناس بيعتقدوا غلط لكن ال weak form
+
+361
+00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,660
+hypothesis is not reflected the past prices
+
+362
+00:29:36,660 --> 00:29:41,120
+ما بتعكسش ال .. so it is not worth to use this
+
+363
+00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:46,820
+فهذول الناس the only chartist بيعتقدوا the prices
+
+364
+00:29:46,820 --> 00:29:52,420
+move with a channel الأسعار بتمشي بقناة this
+
+365
+00:29:52,420 --> 00:30:00,040
+channel has a resistance R and support S نقاط ال
+
+366
+00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:06,680
+resistance نقاط المقاومة support what it means
+
+367
+00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:11,820
+this it means look at this chart here which is
+
+368
+00:30:11,820 --> 00:30:18,840
+similar to the chart down here similar like these
+
+369
+00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,940
+charts if you look carefully to these charts you
+
+370
+00:30:21,940 --> 00:30:26,920
+can know the look
+
+371
+00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:32,730
+at here focus on this when the prices try to be
+
+372
+00:30:32,730 --> 00:30:36,970
+close to the resistance لما الأسعار بدها تقترب
+
+373
+00:30:36,970 --> 00:30:44,250
+لهون so this line try to resist the price to push
+
+374
+00:30:44,250 --> 00:30:49,210
+the price down فزي ما احنا بنمسك الكرة و نضربها
+
+375
+00:30:49,210 --> 00:30:53,370
+على الأرض فكتلة الهواء بتمنع الكورة تضللها طال على 
+
+376
+00:30:53,370 --> 00:30:58,250
+فوق لو فيش جاذبية أرضية كان ال .. ال .. مشت بطريقة
+
+377
+00:30:58,250 --> 00:31:02,450
+عشوائية فلو إذا ضربنا الكورة كتلة أو حجم ضغط الجو 
+
+378
+00:31:02,450 --> 00:31:08,440
+بدفع الكورة أنها تنزل للأرض Okay وحسب قوانين نيوتن
+
+379
+00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,860
+هتدفع لما تضرب في الأرض هتدفعها بقوة إلى أعلى و
+
+380
+00:31:11,860 --> 00:31:15,600
+هكذا فلما نيجي احنا ل .. في الـ resistance في الـ
+
+381
+00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,080
+resistance  price down فلأنه بيصير زي ..
+
+382
+00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,740
+بالظبط زي .. زي الكرة انظر على الكرة هتضلها نازلة
+
+383
+00:31:22,740 --> 00:31:28,900
+و هيجي عند الـ support عند الـ support هتيجي تقترب
+
+384
+00:31:28,900 --> 00:31:32,020
+من الـ support and the support اللي هو الأرض هتعمل
+
+385
+00:31:32,020 --> 00:31:37,200
+supporting and kick the ballو هتدفع الكورة لإيش
+
+386
+00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:44,560
+لأعلى and that's it so people in the weak form
+
+387
+00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:50,950
+hypothesis believe that the prices is not following
+
+388
+00:31:50,950 --> 00:31:54,650
+the random walk مابتمشيش بطريقة عشوائية we can
+
+389
+00:31:54,650 --> 00:31:57,910
+predict the prices by using different charts,
+
+390
+00:31:58,070 --> 00:32:01,330
+different analyses ممكن نستخدم different charts و
+
+391
+00:32:01,330 --> 00:32:04,630
+different analyses واحدة من الـ analysis هي support
+
+392
+00:32:04,630 --> 00:32:08,910
+and resistance اللي هو طريقة الدعم و المقاومة في
+
+393
+00:32:08,910 --> 00:32:14,530
+other chart using candles بستخدم الشموع اللي هو
+
+394
+00:32:14,530 --> 00:32:15,430
+Japanese candles
+
+395
+00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:24,180
+Japanese candles يعني الشموع اليابانية لو احنا
+
+396
+00:32:24,180 --> 00:32:27,480
+طلعنا على الشموع مثلا خليني اريكم في شموع
+
+397
+00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:31,820
+اليابانية مثلا الشموع
+
+398
+00:32:31,820 --> 00:32:37,680
+اليابانية مثلا كيف how it works مثلا هي عندنا كتاب
+
+399
+00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,440
+كامل بس بالشموع اليابانية okay there is a big
+
+400
+00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:42,880
+piece of work
+
+401
+00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,200
+لأ السلحة في طريقة تانية في عندك head and
+
+402
+00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,340
+shoulders وفي عندك الـ stars وفي عندك الـ bears وفي
+
+403
+00:32:52,340 --> 00:32:57,340
+عندك يعني علم كبير مابدناش ندخل فيه تفاصيله شوفوا
+
+404
+00:32:57,340 --> 00:33:03,040
+طريقة الشموع مثلا هلأ أورجيكم طريقة الشموع هلأ
+
+405
+00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:08,240
+بنوضحلكم مش معناها نشوف
+
+406
+00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,680
+طريقة الشموع مثلا if .. if you look at the plaque
+
+407
+00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:17,670
+here the more plaqueيعني شايفين في عندنا شمعة
+
+408
+00:33:17,670 --> 00:33:22,690
+white و شمعة black if the candle is black إذا كانت
+
+409
+00:33:22,690 --> 00:33:27,710
+الشمعة black or red حسب اللون اللي احنا هنختاره so
+
+410
+00:33:27,710 --> 00:33:32,150
+it means the price is going down if the candle is
+
+411
+00:33:32,150 --> 00:33:36,070
+white it means the prices were going up الأسعار
+
+412
+00:33:36,070 --> 00:33:41,090
+هتطلع لأعلى and if you observe هنا إذا طلعت و هان
+
+413
+00:33:41,090 --> 00:33:45,370
+observe carefully on the candlethis is a very
+
+414
+00:33:45,370 --> 00:33:51,490
+interesting subject هذا موضوع كتير منطق فانتبهوا
+
+415
+00:33:51,490 --> 00:33:55,870
+just people
+
+416
+00:33:55,870 --> 00:33:58,090
+spend a lot of money on understanding these things
+
+417
+00:33:58,090 --> 00:34:02,790
+so you can take it free here انتوا ماخدينها
+
+418
+00:34:02,790 --> 00:34:09,530
+بالبلاش so if you look at this look at this candle
+
+419
+00:34:09,530 --> 00:34:13,670
+this candle for instance is a big comparing with
+
+420
+00:34:13,670 --> 00:34:18,740
+thisو what is the difference between this candle
+
+421
+00:34:18,740 --> 00:34:27,460
+and this candle؟ why it is big؟ this is the
+
+422
+00:34:27,460 --> 00:34:32,200
+question لأ why it is big؟ why this candle is
+
+423
+00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,960
+comparing with this candle big؟
+
+424
+00:34:38,370 --> 00:34:43,670
+كما قلت عندما تنظر إلى الأسعار يجب أن تنظر إلى
+
+425
+00:34:43,670 --> 00:34:46,650
+اتنين أشياء الأسعار ومتداولات المتداولات
+
+426
+00:34:46,650 --> 00:34:48,270
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+427
+00:34:48,270 --> 00:34:48,710
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+428
+00:34:48,710 --> 00:34:49,670
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+429
+00:34:49,670 --> 00:34:50,690
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+430
+00:34:50,690 --> 00:34:51,410
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+431
+00:34:51,410 --> 00:34:51,930
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+432
+00:34:51,930 --> 00:34:54,950
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+433
+00:34:54,950 --> 00:35:00,270
+المتداولات المتداولات
+
+434
+00:35:00,270 --> 00:35:05,630
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+435
+00:35:05,630 --> 00:35:11,210
+المتداولات المbut here is just only 5 million
+
+436
+00:35:11,210 --> 00:35:15,250
+shops يعني هاي الشمعة كبيرة مقارنة مع هاي الشمعة
+
+437
+00:35:15,250 --> 00:35:18,470
+الصغيرة الشمعة الصغيرة انه عدد الصفقات او عدد
+
+438
+00:35:18,470 --> 00:35:22,470
+الأسهم صغير if you look at this candle for
+
+439
+00:35:22,470 --> 00:35:22,970
+instance
+
+440
+00:35:29,220 --> 00:35:33,880
+this big candle comparing with this if we have two
+
+441
+00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,940
+different candles with different size اذا كان
+
+442
+00:35:36,940 --> 00:35:41,380
+عندنا candles different size it means this candle
+
+443
+00:35:41,380 --> 00:35:46,660
+will push the price down less than this candle
+
+444
+00:35:46,660 --> 00:35:53,190
+يعني زي شحن كبير أمامه سيارة صغيرةبس خبطة هيك
+
+445
+00:35:53,190 --> 00:35:57,450
+بيدعمها لبعيد صح؟ لو احنا جبنا just a small car
+
+446
+00:35:57,450 --> 00:36:00,830
+and want to hit the small car فمش هتدفعها كتير
+
+447
+00:36:00,830 --> 00:36:06,650
+فإذا بنلاحظ احنا الشمعة هذه هتنزل السعر بطريقة
+
+448
+00:36:06,650 --> 00:36:12,090
+أكثر من السعر and vice versa و لو كان العكس صحيح
+
+449
+00:36:12,090 --> 00:36:18,330
+فهدول الناس ال people who believe in the weak form
+
+450
+00:36:18,330 --> 00:36:22,370
+hypothesisfollow the .. the technical analysis
+
+451
+00:36:22,370 --> 00:36:27,850
+الناس اللي بيقاملوا بال .. بال weak form الناس
+
+452
+00:36:27,850 --> 00:36:30,310
+اللي بيقاملوا بال .. بال .. بال weak form
+
+453
+00:36:30,310 --> 00:36:36,630
+hypothesis يعني النصوخ ضعيف هم الناس اللي support
+
+454
+00:36:36,630 --> 00:36:38,410
+the technical analysis اللي هو ال technical
+
+455
+00:36:38,410 --> 00:36:44,670
+analysis اللي هو التحليل الفني okay this is very
+
+456
+00:36:44,670 --> 00:36:47,710
+important things فزي ما حكينا في ال .. في ال weak
+
+457
+00:36:47,710 --> 00:36:52,870
+formand this is mistakenly و هذا .. و هذا بطأ يعني
+
+458
+00:36:52,870 --> 00:36:58,690
+بيحكو but in reality the weak form there is no
+
+459
+00:36:58,690 --> 00:37:01,190
+point in doing trends or technical analysis
+
+460
+00:37:01,190 --> 00:37:06,970
+because the .. the historical prices is already
+
+461
+00:37:06,970 --> 00:37:10,050
+reflected in the future prices so why you are
+
+462
+00:37:10,050 --> 00:37:13,250
+analyzing the .. the previous historical prices
+
+463
+00:37:13,250 --> 00:37:16,530
+إذا هي الأسعار المستقبل already بتعكس ال history
+
+464
+00:37:16,530 --> 00:37:23,570
+فليش احنا نروح نحلل ال historyOkay بقى the .. the
+
+465
+00:37:23,570 --> 00:37:26,310
+problem in the weak form hypothesis المشكلة بال
+
+466
+00:37:26,310 --> 00:37:30,550
+weak form hypothesis is not reflected the
+
+467
+00:37:30,550 --> 00:37:34,930
+fundamental information and the private
+
+468
+00:37:34,930 --> 00:37:40,430
+information يعني خلينا هنلخص لو
+
+469
+00:37:40,430 --> 00:37:46,130
+احنا أخدنا هذا الشكل تبقى بس أخدنا هذا الشكل
+
+470
+00:37:51,270 --> 00:38:01,570
+هذه ضعيفة وهذه أقل قوية وهذه قوية السوق الضعيف هنا
+
+471
+00:38:01,570 --> 00:38:08,610
+هو فقط لأسعار التاريخ وهو
+
+472
+00:38:08,610 --> 00:38:13,930
+ليس موضوع أساسي الأسعار
+
+473
+00:38:13,930 --> 00:38:19,290
+وليس موضوع الشخصيات أو الشخصيات
+
+474
+00:38:23,060 --> 00:38:26,080
+Okay يعني هلأ ال weak form بس بعكس ال historical
+
+475
+00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:32,320
+prices So anyone has fundamental prices he or she
+
+476
+00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:35,460
+can get benefit in the weak form markets يعني أي
+
+477
+00:38:35,460 --> 00:38:39,620
+واحد عنده fundamental .. معلومات fundamental فهو
+
+478
+00:38:39,620 --> 00:38:44,000
+هيستفيد كتير احنا بنجح عند هذا الحد و اللي خائل
+
+479
+00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,160
+جاي بنحكي على semi-strong و بنحكي على strong
+
+480
+00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:47,040
+market hypothesis
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3cd03dcbc0678bfcc93bdeb047da3b132030766
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1920 @@
+1
+00:00:20,690 --> 00:00:25,930
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم زي ما حكينا المرة الفاتة
+
+2
+00:00:25,930 --> 00:00:32,030
+this chapter talk about the market efficiency okay
+
+3
+00:00:32,030 --> 00:00:37,190
+the hypothesis of market efficiency just pay
+
+4
+00:00:37,190 --> 00:00:44,430
+attention here the market efficiency okay the
+
+5
+00:00:44,430 --> 00:00:49,490
+market efficiency depends on the central idea that
+
+6
+00:00:50,470 --> 00:00:55,950
+الأسعار تتبع العمل العشوائي الأسعار تتبع العمل
+
+7
+00:00:55,950 --> 00:00:59,730
+العشوائي هذا يعني أن لا أحد يستطيع أن يتوقع أين
+
+8
+00:00:59,730 --> 00:01:06,770
+ستذهب الأسعار يعني الأسعار و الرايحة هذا بالنسبة
+
+9
+00:01:06,770 --> 00:01:10,590
+لأن الأسعار
+
+10
+00:01:10,590 --> 00:01:17,150
+مجموعة كل المعلومات المتوفرةOkay يعني الأسعار كلها
+
+11
+00:01:17,150 --> 00:01:21,170
+بتاخد بالاعتبار كل المعلومات المتاحة, this
+
+12
+00:01:21,170 --> 00:01:26,510
+information is like the insider information يعني
+
+13
+00:01:26,510 --> 00:01:30,290
+المعلومات داخل الشركة or the public information
+
+14
+00:01:31,550 --> 00:01:36,650
+لذلك السعر مجموعة كل هذه المعلومات وعندما يتم
+
+15
+00:01:36,650 --> 00:01:42,390
+مجموعة كل هذه المعلومات سنعتبر أن السوق مفيد إذا
+
+16
+00:01:42,390 --> 00:01:46,910
+فالسوق لم يتم مجموعة كل هذه المعلومات فالسوق غير
+
+17
+00:01:46,910 --> 00:01:53,150
+مفيد و مرة أخرى كما قلت من قبل إذا كان السوق مفيد
+
+18
+00:01:53,150 --> 00:01:57,960
+فلا يوجد تقرار لسوق السوقthe prices follow the
+
+19
+00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:02,000
+random walk يعني الأسعار بتتبع السلوك العشوائي
+
+20
+00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:07,240
+last night الليلة الماضية I tried to .. to know
+
+21
+00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:11,820
+what is the essence of the random walk يعني بدأ
+
+22
+00:02:11,820 --> 00:02:16,850
+أعرف من وين إجت كلمة ال random walkthe random walk
+
+23
+00:02:16,850 --> 00:02:20,150
+is not coined in finance مايجاتش من ال finance
+
+24
+00:02:20,150 --> 00:02:24,530
+it's coined from the psychology science back to
+
+25
+00:02:24,530 --> 00:02:29,030
+1905 اجت من علم النفس في سنة الف تسعمائية و خمسة
+
+26
+00:02:29,030 --> 00:02:34,230
+and this random walk exactly when the drug takers
+
+27
+00:02:34,230 --> 00:02:37,950
+asking them to walkيعني لما بطلبوا من ال drug
+
+28
+00:02:37,950 --> 00:02:43,230
+takers يعني الناس ال alcoholic يعني الناس المدمنين
+
+29
+00:02:43,230 --> 00:02:47,790
+المخدرات و بتوع الكحول فبسألوهم يعني just walk
+
+30
+00:02:47,790 --> 00:02:52,190
+from here to the end يعني امشوا من هنا لنهاية
+
+31
+00:02:52,190 --> 00:02:57,190
+الغرفة so they are randomly walkedيعني بيمشوا
+
+32
+00:02:57,190 --> 00:03:01,010
+بطريقة إيش؟ عشوية So if you ask them to walk to
+
+33
+00:03:01,010 --> 00:03:04,150
+the .. to the end of this room So maybe they go
+
+34
+00:03:04,150 --> 00:03:07,910
+like this and go like this and this till to the
+
+35
+00:03:07,910 --> 00:03:12,150
+end Or maybe not reach to the end ممكن هم مايصلوش
+
+36
+00:03:12,150 --> 00:03:16,710
+لل .. لل end So there is no prediction of these
+
+37
+00:03:16,710 --> 00:03:23,050
+people how they walk مافيش حد بيستطيع يتنبأ And in
+
+38
+00:03:23,050 --> 00:03:29,100
+.. in financethe .. the movement of the price is
+
+39
+00:03:29,100 --> 00:03:33,240
+like the people who take the drugs يعني حركة
+
+40
+00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,720
+الأسعار هي زي الناس اللي بياخدوا ال drugs okay
+
+41
+00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:42,200
+there is no prediction but if these people wake up
+
+42
+00:03:43,980 --> 00:03:49,140
+so they .. we can predict the .. the behavior يعني
+
+43
+00:03:49,140 --> 00:03:52,000
+إذا كانوا هدول الناس صحيح نستطيع إن إحنا نتنبأ
+
+44
+00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:57,280
+عنهم and from the mathematic point of view من وجهة
+
+45
+00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:04,760
+نظر ال mathematicsمن وجهة نظر رياضيات الـ random
+
+46
+00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:11,360
+walk is follow like this x is the observation of
+
+47
+00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:20,460
+the price at t time is equal alpha is for instance
+
+48
+00:04:20,460 --> 00:04:30,930
+هي alpha plus x t minus oneإذا أردت أن أتوقع
+
+49
+00:04:30,930 --> 00:04:38,290
+الأسعار لليوم القادم، فالأمر يعني أسعار اليوم
+
+50
+00:04:38,290 --> 00:04:41,130
+الماضي أكتر من أبسلم
+
+51
+00:04:45,910 --> 00:04:51,010
+So the .. the prices for tomorrow is a function of
+
+52
+00:04:51,010 --> 00:04:55,210
+the prices of yesterday plus the epsilon what it
+
+53
+00:04:55,210 --> 00:04:58,830
+means epsilon هي إيش بتعني epsilon يعني الأسعار
+
+54
+00:04:58,830 --> 00:05:05,890
+بتاعة البكرا هي أسعار أو اليوم هي أسعار بارح زائد
+
+55
+00:05:05,890 --> 00:05:07,110
+ال epsilon
+
+56
+00:05:10,990 --> 00:05:15,230
+يعني ممكن مثلا لو حكينا انه ال .. ايش السعر بتاع
+
+57
+00:05:15,230 --> 00:05:20,410
+اليوم is equal alpha .. alpha ثابت plus XT minus
+
+58
+00:05:20,410 --> 00:05:24,590
+one سعر امبارح كام كان؟ مثلا مائة دولار plus
+
+59
+00:05:24,590 --> 00:05:32,890
+epsilon .. epsilon is .. is the error .. error ..
+
+60
+00:05:32,890 --> 00:05:37,310
+لسبب خطأ this is .. this epsilon is the random
+
+61
+00:05:37,310 --> 00:05:42,220
+walkbecause if you know the one hundred is the
+
+62
+00:05:42,220 --> 00:05:45,440
+price of yesterday اذا احنا عرفنا السعر بتاع بارح
+
+63
+00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:49,940
+هو مية دولار what is the price today is a function
+
+64
+00:05:49,940 --> 00:05:54,300
+of the price yesterday plus the error and error هي
+
+65
+00:05:54,300 --> 00:06:00,320
+is وال error هان هي is randomly generated randomly
+
+66
+00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:05,640
+generated يعني هي تيجي بطريقة عشوائية for instance
+
+67
+00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:12,130
+it could be twoit could be one it could be minus
+
+68
+00:06:12,130 --> 00:06:16,970
+one it means in other ways it is minus alpha to
+
+69
+00:06:16,970 --> 00:06:20,770
+plus alpha يعني
+
+70
+00:06:20,770 --> 00:06:23,970
+هي بتمتد من minus alpha to plus alpha so nobody
+
+71
+00:06:23,970 --> 00:06:28,250
+knows what is the epsilon ماحدش بيعرف ال epsilon
+
+72
+00:06:28,250 --> 00:06:33,110
+because it is randomly generatedلأنه هي randomly
+
+73
+00:06:33,110 --> 00:06:38,130
+generated يعني بطريقة عشوائية this is from the
+
+74
+00:06:38,130 --> 00:06:40,590
+mathematic point of view هذه من وجهة نظر ال
+
+75
+00:06:40,590 --> 00:06:43,770
+mathematics and statisticians point of view من
+
+76
+00:06:43,770 --> 00:06:49,170
+وجهة نظر الإحصاء من وجهة نظر ال ..
+
+77
+00:06:49,170 --> 00:06:55,970
+هذه معادلة ال random walk XT اللي هو السعر اللي
+
+78
+00:06:55,970 --> 00:07:00,090
+احنا نتوقعه بتساوي alpha يعني خلينا لو جي مثلا
+
+79
+00:07:00,090 --> 00:07:01,250
+okay
+
+80
+00:07:03,980 --> 00:07:08,900
+this is a random walk some people they they think
+
+81
+00:07:08,900 --> 00:07:12,240
+this is not follow the random walk because this
+
+82
+00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,360
+curve is أبواد يعني طالع but in general this is
+
+83
+00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:20,960
+randomly walked يعني هذا بسلك طريقة عشوائية no
+
+84
+00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,820
+prediction for instance if you are here sitting
+
+85
+00:07:23,820 --> 00:07:27,380
+standing here are you sure that the prices will go
+
+86
+00:07:27,380 --> 00:07:31,740
+down or go up you don't know because
+
+87
+00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:38,540
+the prices is a function of the epsilon لأن
+
+88
+00:07:38,540 --> 00:07:42,080
+الأسعار هي دالة في ال epsilon ال epsilon هي
+
+89
+00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:53,900
+randomly generated okay so
+
+90
+00:07:53,900 --> 00:07:59,340
+this is the .. the meaning of the random walk هذا
+
+91
+00:07:59,340 --> 00:08:00,440
+مفهوم ال random walk
+
+92
+00:08:04,180 --> 00:08:08,300
+الطريقة العشوائية في صورة الأسعار if again if the
+
+93
+00:08:08,300 --> 00:08:12,660
+prices follow the random walk so the market is
+
+94
+00:08:12,660 --> 00:08:17,960
+efficient الأسعار بتكون efficient if it is not so
+
+95
+00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:23,420
+the market is not efficient okay so stock prices
+
+96
+00:08:23,420 --> 00:08:28,270
+follow a random walkand this is example how this
+
+97
+00:08:28,270 --> 00:08:33,550
+in in the day of the news which is zero when they
+
+98
+00:08:33,550 --> 00:08:38,150
+announce the news nobody know where is this news
+
+99
+00:08:38,150 --> 00:08:41,270
+announced ماحدش بيعرف وين الأسعار هتطلع وين
+
+100
+00:08:41,270 --> 00:08:45,930
+المعلومات هتطلع and because of this no one can
+
+101
+00:08:45,930 --> 00:08:50,110
+predict the behavior of the price وماحدش بيقدر
+
+102
+00:08:50,110 --> 00:08:57,440
+يتنبأ الأسعار وين هتروحOkay and في .. في كتير
+
+103
+00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,960
+examples في ال .. يعني هلأ مثلا بيحكوا على ال ..
+
+104
+00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:04,960
+إيران و مشاكل إيران رغم هيك أنه أسعار الدهب خفتت
+
+105
+00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:10,320
+صح ولا لأ؟ و بتسألي يعني ..if you want to talk
+
+106
+00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,280
+about the war in Iran it means the gold prices
+
+107
+00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:17,780
+should jump يعني الأسعار الدهب لازم ترتفع but now
+
+108
+00:09:17,780 --> 00:09:24,800
+the gold prices is going down nobody knows ماحدش
+
+109
+00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:27,520
+بتوقع اللي بيصير في الأسعار this is the market why
+
+110
+00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:33,240
+why nobody can predict because why it is random
+
+111
+00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:39,040
+walk ليش random walk becausebecause all of the
+
+112
+00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,560
+information because all of the information is
+
+113
+00:09:42,560 --> 00:09:46,380
+reflected in in the prices even the new
+
+114
+00:09:46,380 --> 00:09:49,960
+information is reflected in the prices and the
+
+115
+00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:55,100
+prices is expected the future behavior كمان أسعار
+
+116
+00:09:55,100 --> 00:10:00,000
+بتتنبأ للمستقبل و هذا مش موجود عند الأفراد تمام؟
+
+117
+00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:04,020
+and this is example of the random walk of the
+
+118
+00:10:04,020 --> 00:10:05,380
+behavior of the
+
+119
+00:10:10,140 --> 00:10:14,580
+as I explained the competition is one of the
+
+120
+00:10:14,580 --> 00:10:20,460
+source of the market efficiency المنافسة المنافسة
+
+121
+00:10:20,460 --> 00:10:27,000
+بين ال investors regarding the information يعني
+
+122
+00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:30,720
+المنافسة بينهم حاولوا الحصول على المعلومات some
+
+123
+00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,840
+investors they have precious information they have
+
+124
+00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,820
+private information and others they don't have
+
+125
+00:10:36,820 --> 00:10:39,460
+وبعض الناس ما عندهمش معلومات
+
+126
+00:10:41,690 --> 00:10:44,370
+So in the strong competition, I choose prices
+
+127
+00:10:44,370 --> 00:10:49,490
+reflect information فلمّا يكون عندي أنا strong
+
+128
+00:10:49,490 --> 00:10:53,230
+competition between the investors لأنه ال
+
+129
+00:10:53,230 --> 00:10:57,290
+investors they spend money and time in analyzing
+
+130
+00:10:57,290 --> 00:11:02,770
+the information يعني بي .. بيندوا وقت طويل و
+
+131
+00:11:02,770 --> 00:11:07,350
+بيدفعوا فلوس حتى يحللوا المعلومات and to get a new
+
+132
+00:11:07,350 --> 00:11:13,290
+information و يحصلوا على معلومات جديدةonce they
+
+133
+00:11:13,290 --> 00:11:16,890
+uncover these information .. once they locate this
+
+134
+00:11:16,890 --> 00:11:20,850
+informationthe .. the prices already reflected
+
+135
+00:11:20,850 --> 00:11:23,750
+this price .. this information so what is the
+
+136
+00:11:23,750 --> 00:11:27,550
+reason of spend time and money in collecting the
+
+137
+00:11:27,550 --> 00:11:30,870
+information and the prices is already reflected
+
+138
+00:11:30,870 --> 00:11:34,410
+this information يعني أن بعض الناس بروح ب .. ب ..
+
+139
+00:11:34,410 --> 00:11:38,230
+ب .. بنفقوا أموال و فلوس و وقت و .. و .. حتى
+
+140
+00:11:38,230 --> 00:11:41,570
+يحصلوا على معلومات و حتى لما يجدوا المعلومات أصلا
+
+141
+00:11:41,570 --> 00:11:44,490
+أسعار reflected this informationso there is no
+
+142
+00:11:44,490 --> 00:11:47,890
+reason مافيش داعي ان احنا ندور على هذه المعلومات
+
+143
+00:11:47,890 --> 00:11:53,730
+لأن بالاخير المعلومات موجودة في السعر نفسه okay
+
+144
+00:11:53,730 --> 00:11:57,670
+هذا حسب ال efficient market hypothesis efficient
+
+145
+00:11:57,670 --> 00:12:03,570
+market hypothesis فبصير competition between the
+
+146
+00:12:03,570 --> 00:12:07,350
+investors to collect this private information بصير
+
+147
+00:12:07,350 --> 00:12:11,930
+منافسة بين ال investors حتى يجمعوا البياناتthe
+
+148
+00:12:11,930 --> 00:12:15,370
+more the competition is the more the efficient
+
+149
+00:12:15,370 --> 00:12:20,290
+price كل مكان فيه منافسة أكتر كل مكان ال price is
+
+150
+00:12:20,290 --> 00:12:26,410
+efficient لأنه بتكون المعلومات أكتر and the
+
+151
+00:12:26,410 --> 00:12:29,510
+information is available to the public but
+
+152
+00:12:29,510 --> 00:12:36,110
+sometimes one of the investor discover a
+
+153
+00:12:36,110 --> 00:12:39,530
+particular information let's take this example
+
+154
+00:12:39,530 --> 00:12:44,760
+herea particular investor spending time and money
+
+155
+00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:49,060
+and locate information يعني بذل جهد و وقت حتى يحصل
+
+156
+00:12:49,060 --> 00:12:53,140
+على معلومات he
+
+157
+00:12:53,140 --> 00:12:55,620
+only can use this new information for one time
+
+158
+00:12:55,620 --> 00:13:00,640
+يعني حتى لو حصل على هذه المعلومات بس بستطيع
+
+159
+00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:05,400
+يستخدمها مرة واحد why because once he or she use
+
+160
+00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:09,310
+this informationthe price is reflected in this new
+
+161
+00:13:09,310 --> 00:13:13,330
+information and he or she cannot use this again
+
+162
+00:13:13,330 --> 00:13:18,890
+يعني هو اكتشف طريقة مثلا لدى
+
+163
+00:13:18,890 --> 00:13:22,350
+سلوك سعر او طريقة او معلومة معينة فهو هيستخدم
+
+164
+00:13:22,350 --> 00:13:26,060
+هيروح يشتري مثلافهو استخدمها مرة واحدة مش هيروح
+
+165
+00:13:26,060 --> 00:13:30,520
+يستخدمها كمان مرة لأنه السوق عرف هذه المعلومة and
+
+166
+00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,360
+this information is publicly available و هذه
+
+167
+00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:39,020
+المعلومات هي متوفرة بشكل .. خلينا نشوف مثلا واحد
+
+168
+00:13:39,020 --> 00:13:45,180
+من ال investors .. ال investors شافها ال .. شافها
+
+169
+00:13:45,180 --> 00:13:50,600
+الطريقة هذه what do you think about this .. this
+
+170
+00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:50,980
+chart
+
+171
+00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:00,160
+look at this chart اتطلعوا على هذا ال .. ال chart
+
+172
+00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:03,640
+and
+
+173
+00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,660
+this was pay their attention to understand this
+
+174
+00:14:06,660 --> 00:14:11,660
+chart ف if they understand or if they discover
+
+175
+00:14:11,660 --> 00:14:15,800
+something in this chart the markets will reflect
+
+176
+00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:20,020
+this again يعني السوق هيعرف ان هدول عرفوا هيغير
+
+177
+00:14:20,020 --> 00:14:22,940
+السلوك تبع السعر خلينا نشوف ايش .. what you
+
+178
+00:14:22,940 --> 00:14:25,440
+observe in this chart
+
+179
+00:14:29,550 --> 00:14:34,570
+what you observe in this chart؟ اوكي ايش .. ايش
+
+180
+00:14:34,570 --> 00:14:39,270
+you observe؟ اول شي كان عندنا الاسعار up كان اول
+
+181
+00:14:39,270 --> 00:14:42,770
+الحالة صغيرة و بعدها اتبارك ايه هي random one اوكي
+
+182
+00:14:42,770 --> 00:14:50,590
+اوكي
+
+183
+00:14:50,590 --> 00:14:54,770
+ممكن
+
+184
+00:14:54,770 --> 00:15:00,800
+شوفناس تانين شوفوا إيش رأيكم بال .. why you
+
+185
+00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:05,900
+observe in this؟ و
+
+186
+00:15:05,900 --> 00:15:11,400
+طب فاطمة ماحكتش صح اخو
+
+187
+00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,280
+تخافوش إيش .. إيش بتشوفه في الرسمة هاي؟ very
+
+188
+00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:21,280
+simple رسمة سهلة و مابدهاش فضل أول حاجة كانت إنه
+
+189
+00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:27,110
+طريقة أسعار كل طوابق جامعةبممكن ان يفهمها ال
+
+190
+00:15:27,110 --> 00:15:32,430
+teacher كيف هيفهمها ان
+
+191
+00:15:32,430 --> 00:15:37,170
+هو انا ال teacher ان هو حق خلاص و صدقني ساعد في ال
+
+192
+00:15:37,170 --> 00:15:43,630
+top when when it is he in the top لأ انا بحكي لك
+
+193
+00:15:43,630 --> 00:15:44,750
+دستاني okay okay
+
+194
+00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:06,480
+Okay خلينا نسهل كمان سهل شايفين اقبعوا just depict
+
+195
+00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:09,700
+this chart اقبعوه فى راسكم بدا امحي جزء من ال
+
+196
+00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:17,490
+chart okay طيب امحيت الجزء 1بتقدر تعمل prediction
+
+197
+00:16:17,490 --> 00:16:22,850
+for the .. the next؟ بتعرف ايه؟ لو انا نفسي اقصدها
+
+198
+00:16:22,850 --> 00:16:28,350
+اكمل نفس الفرق لكن لو انا نفسي اقصدها اكمل نفس
+
+199
+00:16:28,350 --> 00:16:33,470
+الفرق اه okay برجيني عشان نشوف if you discover
+
+200
+00:16:33,470 --> 00:16:42,030
+this اقرص
+
+201
+00:16:42,030 --> 00:16:46,980
+برا اسمها feel free يعنيفاهمليها لما انا بغمض هنا
+
+202
+00:16:46,980 --> 00:16:51,440
+يعني .. خلاص؟ لكن لو انا .. لو انا بتحكي أسعارك
+
+203
+00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,840
+اللي هتاخدها او انه ال .. اكتشف ال investor فهغير
+
+204
+00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:59,600
+في السؤال .. okay شكرا هلأ خلينا نشوف this is why
+
+205
+00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:03,480
+.. this is why investors they spend time and money
+
+206
+00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,820
+in understanding this information هذه معلومات
+
+207
+00:17:07,820 --> 00:17:15,130
+موجودة فهم هي .. احنا طبعا محينا الجزء هذا صح؟طيب
+
+208
+00:17:15,130 --> 00:17:19,010
+لو احنا طلعنا عن الرسمة بتبعتك كانت الرسمة هيك صح؟
+
+209
+00:17:19,010 --> 00:17:25,970
+this is your chart بق ال investors بيحاولوا to see
+
+210
+00:17:25,970 --> 00:17:32,430
+things that other people don't see this هم هيشوفوا
+
+211
+00:17:32,430 --> 00:17:36,110
+شغل الناس التاني مش شوفوه once they observe this
+
+212
+00:17:36,110 --> 00:17:40,370
+and the financial market know this the financial
+
+213
+00:17:40,370 --> 00:17:45,690
+market consider thisيعني إذا هم اكتشفوا شغلها في
+
+214
+00:17:45,690 --> 00:17:50,870
+السوق الناس تانية مش عارفينها فالسوق المالي مجرد
+
+215
+00:17:50,870 --> 00:17:54,710
+ما هدول ال investors يكتشفوها فهيروح يعدل المساخ
+
+216
+00:17:54,710 --> 00:18:00,250
+تبعه ويمشي بطريقة تانية بحيث ماحدش يعرف زي ما انت
+
+217
+00:18:00,250 --> 00:18:03,410
+حكيت إنه ممكن يكون هكذا بس خلينا نعطيكي معلومة
+
+218
+00:18:03,410 --> 00:18:09,310
+شوية إضافية لو احنا طلعنا هنا one اعطينا مثلا one
+
+219
+00:18:09,310 --> 00:18:10,610
+okay
+
+220
+00:18:17,900 --> 00:18:22,680
+the price هذا هو ال price ال time ال time وهذا ال
+
+221
+00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:27,780
+time وهذا ال price okay هلا عدوا هان one two three
+
+222
+00:18:27,780 --> 00:18:37,340
+بعد the third one the prices is going down okay
+
+223
+00:18:37,340 --> 00:18:44,720
+then it should behave like this so one two three
+
+224
+00:18:46,730 --> 00:18:53,790
+and going down so one two three يعني هاكتشف واحد
+
+225
+00:18:53,790 --> 00:18:57,190
+من ال investors ان هدول عملوا تلت مرات و بعدين is
+
+226
+00:18:57,190 --> 00:19:01,290
+going down هعملوا تلت مرات and going down once
+
+227
+00:19:01,290 --> 00:19:05,850
+they discover this trend مباشرة ما هم يكتشفوا هذا
+
+228
+00:19:05,850 --> 00:19:09,750
+ال trend ال financial markets after this will
+
+229
+00:19:09,750 --> 00:19:11,310
+behave like .. like this
+
+230
+00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,540
+ال financial market هيجي و يغير بطريقة أخرى
+
+231
+00:19:18,540 --> 00:19:23,380
+because it's been discovered by the .. by a
+
+232
+00:19:23,380 --> 00:19:26,960
+particular investor يعني لأنه تم اكتشافها بطريقة
+
+233
+00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:31,700
+ال particular investors okay in this way .. in
+
+234
+00:19:31,700 --> 00:19:35,340
+this way the financial market beat all of the
+
+235
+00:19:35,340 --> 00:19:38,420
+market participants يعني السوق المالي بهزم الكل
+
+236
+00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,520
+because you just one time you can make the
+
+237
+00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,960
+abnormal return but next time you cannot do this
+
+238
+00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,760
+يعني أنت هتعمل مرة واحدة ال abnormal return بس
+
+239
+00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:55,300
+المرة اللي بعديها مش هتعرف ال financial
+
+240
+00:19:55,300 --> 00:19:59,860
+market yes because it is efficient market how this
+
+241
+00:19:59,860 --> 00:20:02,580
+need some mathematical and some statistics to
+
+242
+00:20:02,580 --> 00:20:10,670
+prove thisكيف طبعا نحتاج شوية mathematics مع شوية
+
+243
+00:20:10,670 --> 00:20:15,530
+رياضيات عشان نوريكي فعلا they can predict this
+
+244
+00:20:15,530 --> 00:20:23,690
+okay and
+
+245
+00:20:23,690 --> 00:20:29,150
+the second things because the investors think the
+
+246
+00:20:29,150 --> 00:20:33,230
+more information that they have the more return
+
+247
+00:20:33,230 --> 00:20:36,580
+they can getكل ما بيكون عندهم معلومات أكتر بيكون
+
+248
+00:20:36,580 --> 00:20:40,280
+عندهم عائد أكتر So it is .. it is from their point
+
+249
+00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:44,280
+of view it is valuable to spend time and .. and
+
+250
+00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:49,240
+money in collecting private information and
+
+251
+00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,220
+understanding this information عشان هيك it is
+
+252
+00:20:52,220 --> 00:20:56,080
+reasonable to them to .. to know about this
+
+253
+00:20:56,080 --> 00:21:01,330
+private informationيعني بيصير كتير انهم يستثمروا
+
+254
+00:21:01,330 --> 00:21:04,950
+في هذه المعلومات ليش؟ لأنهم بيعتقدوا انه جمع
+
+255
+00:21:04,950 --> 00:21:10,010
+المعلومات giving them the advantage of getting
+
+256
+00:21:10,010 --> 00:21:13,330
+higher return بيعطيهم ميزة انهم بيحصلوا على قائد
+
+257
+00:21:13,330 --> 00:21:18,970
+أعلى the
+
+258
+00:21:18,970 --> 00:21:22,570
+marginal .. the problem is now and we will address
+
+259
+00:21:22,570 --> 00:21:28,860
+this problem in the future the small investorsit
+
+260
+00:21:28,860 --> 00:21:33,060
+is costly for the small investors to looking for
+
+261
+00:21:33,060 --> 00:21:38,040
+information for instance if we have one investor
+
+262
+00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:45,460
+with 1000$ to invest so our question is how much
+
+263
+00:21:45,460 --> 00:21:51,400
+he needs to looking for information but if we have
+
+264
+00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:57,940
+investor B with millions of dollarsso it is worth
+
+265
+00:21:57,940 --> 00:22:02,540
+for him or her to gathering information يعني إذا
+
+266
+00:22:02,540 --> 00:22:06,180
+أنا مستثمر معاه بس ألف دولار و بده يروح يدور على
+
+267
+00:22:06,180 --> 00:22:10,060
+معلومات في يعني بده يضيع الفلوس تبعته و يدور على
+
+268
+00:22:10,060 --> 00:22:15,990
+المعلومات but for this investor Bhe or she has one
+
+269
+00:22:15,990 --> 00:22:20,690
+million and if he just spent one percent of the
+
+270
+00:22:20,690 --> 00:22:25,090
+one million it's worse for them so what is the
+
+271
+00:22:25,090 --> 00:22:28,930
+solution for the investor A؟ ايش الحالة investor
+
+272
+00:22:28,930 --> 00:22:33,050
+A؟ the solution for the investor A is to go to the
+
+273
+00:22:33,050 --> 00:22:38,630
+mutual funds لازم يروح على ال mutual funds because
+
+274
+00:22:38,630 --> 00:22:43,740
+the mutual fund managersmortual fund managers are
+
+275
+00:22:43,740 --> 00:22:47,500
+specialized in collecting data and they can get
+
+276
+00:22:47,500 --> 00:22:50,700
+benefits from the economies of scale يعني
+
+277
+00:22:50,700 --> 00:22:53,680
+بيستفيدوا كمان من شغلة اسمها economies of scale
+
+278
+00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:57,180
+اللي هو حجم الاقتصاد الكبير لإن في كتير investors
+
+279
+00:22:57,180 --> 00:23:03,120
+with 1000$ لإن في هيكون في investors ب1000$ هيروح
+
+280
+00:23:03,120 --> 00:23:06,020
+يودوا ال 1000$ هاي ل الmortual funds و الmortual
+
+281
+00:23:06,020 --> 00:23:09,360
+funds it is worth with them to look for
+
+282
+00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:14,840
+information okayلذلك تجارب التجارب على عملية
+
+283
+00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,080
+التحقيق يمكن أن تكون صغيرة جدًا لإن مدير أكبر
+
+284
+00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:24,660
+شركات تجاربها ستجدها قيمة لهم فقط لأكبر عملية
+
+285
+00:23:24,660 --> 00:23:31,840
+تجاربها كما تشاهد هنا هي قيمة لهم للجمع والتحقق
+
+286
+00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:36,020
+والتحقق من المعلومات ولكن لأشخاص فقط بواسطة ألف
+
+287
+00:23:36,020 --> 00:23:40,180
+دولار صعب عليهم التجارب والتحقق والتحقق من
+
+288
+00:23:40,180 --> 00:23:45,010
+المعلوماتيعني المستثمرين الكبار كويس لهم أنهم
+
+289
+00:23:45,010 --> 00:23:48,570
+يجمعوا معلومات و يحللوها لأنهم بيستخدموا منطق
+
+290
+00:23:48,570 --> 00:23:53,190
+الوفرة الاقتصادية الكبيرة أو حجم الاقتصاد الكبير
+
+291
+00:23:53,190 --> 00:23:58,170
+لكن بالنسبة لل investors الصغار المستثمرين الصغار
+
+292
+00:23:58,170 --> 00:24:04,390
+it cost them هتكلفهم كتير okay so this is why the
+
+293
+00:24:04,390 --> 00:24:08,030
+small investors are recommended to invest their
+
+294
+00:24:08,030 --> 00:24:11,510
+money with the mutual fund managersعشان هيك احنا
+
+295
+00:24:11,510 --> 00:24:16,130
+بننصح المستثمر الصغير يروحوا ل marital funds لأو
+
+296
+00:24:16,130 --> 00:24:21,750
+صندوق الاستثمار okay in the light of this
+
+297
+00:24:21,750 --> 00:24:25,770
+understanding and in the light of the random walk
+
+298
+00:24:25,770 --> 00:24:33,490
+our question is بدوء المفهوم ال random walk and
+
+299
+00:24:33,490 --> 00:24:37,690
+the efficient market hypothesis ومفهوم النظرية
+
+300
+00:24:37,690 --> 00:24:42,310
+الأسواق الكفوةwe can categorize the markets into
+
+301
+00:24:42,310 --> 00:24:46,550
+three main forms or versions ممكن نقسم الأسواق إلى
+
+302
+00:24:46,550 --> 00:24:51,050
+تلت أنواع من الأسواق حسب الكفاءة some people they
+
+303
+00:24:51,050 --> 00:24:54,850
+don't believe that the market is efficient بعض
+
+304
+00:24:54,850 --> 00:24:57,070
+الناس مابيقبلوش أن السوق is efficient we can
+
+305
+00:24:57,070 --> 00:25:01,010
+predict the prices we can know what is going in
+
+306
+00:25:01,010 --> 00:25:04,390
+the financial markets ممكن نعرف شو بيصير في ال
+
+307
+00:25:04,390 --> 00:25:07,030
+financial markets we can predict what is the
+
+308
+00:25:07,030 --> 00:25:12,090
+prices for tomorrowممكن نعرف الأسعار بكرا if we
+
+309
+00:25:12,090 --> 00:25:14,790
+know the prices for tomorrow it means we are
+
+310
+00:25:14,790 --> 00:25:18,490
+working in the inefficient markets إذا احنا بنعرف
+
+311
+00:25:18,490 --> 00:25:21,390
+شو بيصير بكرا، يعني الكلام .. this is inefficient
+
+312
+00:25:21,390 --> 00:25:26,670
+markets so again some people or some investors and
+
+313
+00:25:26,670 --> 00:25:31,090
+some academic people some big professors think the
+
+314
+00:25:31,090 --> 00:25:40,810
+market is not efficientback to 1965 يوجين فاما he
+
+315
+00:25:40,810 --> 00:25:43,070
+was the first one to prove that the market is
+
+316
+00:25:43,070 --> 00:25:46,530
+efficient كان أول واحد أثبت أنه ال market
+
+317
+00:25:46,530 --> 00:25:50,910
+efficient هو يوجين فاما واحد من أكبر كتاب ال
+
+318
+00:25:50,910 --> 00:25:56,070
+financial management هو أثبت أنه السوق المالي كفه
+
+319
+00:25:56,070 --> 00:26:00,430
+some other authors after him they proved that the
+
+320
+00:26:00,430 --> 00:26:05,350
+market is not efficientSo in the light of all of
+
+321
+00:26:05,350 --> 00:26:09,330
+these arguments في ضوء كل هال arguments و
+
+322
+00:26:09,330 --> 00:26:12,790
+هالنقاشات and discussion We have three main levels
+
+323
+00:26:12,790 --> 00:26:18,990
+of the market efficiency We have a weak, we have
+
+324
+00:26:18,990 --> 00:26:24,950
+semi-strong and we have the strong The main issue
+
+325
+00:26:24,950 --> 00:26:30,330
+thatmake us to judge whether this market is weak
+
+326
+00:26:30,330 --> 00:26:33,850
+or strong or semi-strong is the availability of
+
+327
+00:26:33,850 --> 00:26:38,330
+the information يعني الشغل اللي بتخليني أميز أنه
+
+328
+00:26:38,330 --> 00:26:45,510
+هذا is weak ضعيف semi-strong شبه قوي قوي هو مدى
+
+329
+00:26:45,510 --> 00:26:50,710
+availability of information مدى توفر المعلومات for
+
+330
+00:26:50,710 --> 00:26:55,230
+instance if you look at the weak marketsإذا احنا
+
+331
+00:26:55,230 --> 00:26:59,730
+نظرنا لل weak markets the weak market is only
+
+332
+00:26:59,730 --> 00:27:04,990
+reflected the historical prices يعني
+
+333
+00:27:04,990 --> 00:27:11,890
+ال weak market السوق الضعيف فقط بيعكس الأسعار
+
+334
+00:27:11,890 --> 00:27:18,670
+السابقة that's it the past historical prices and
+
+335
+00:27:18,670 --> 00:27:23,920
+the trading volume as wellthe historical prices
+
+336
+00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:31,380
+الأسعار و ال trading volume حجم التداول okay and
+
+337
+00:27:31,380 --> 00:27:35,960
+based on this understanding or based on the weak
+
+338
+00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:41,120
+form hypothesis it means there is no worth to use
+
+339
+00:27:41,120 --> 00:27:48,460
+the chart مافيش اهمية لاستخدام ال chart اللي هو
+
+340
+00:27:48,460 --> 00:27:52,370
+الرسومات البيانيةsome people they they think
+
+341
+00:27:52,370 --> 00:27:57,910
+mistakenly think that the weak form hypothesis not
+
+342
+00:27:57,910 --> 00:28:02,270
+reflected the historical prices ده ناس بيتقضوا أنه
+
+343
+00:28:02,270 --> 00:28:05,550
+ما ال ال weak form مابيعكسش ال historical prices
+
+344
+00:28:05,550 --> 00:28:12,650
+but the weak form hypothesis is reflected the weak
+
+345
+00:28:12,650 --> 00:28:21,020
+form pricesBased on this and the people who
+
+346
+00:28:21,020 --> 00:28:26,320
+believe that the market is inefficient mistakenly
+
+347
+00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:30,180
+use the charts بستخدموا ال charts I will give you
+
+348
+00:28:30,180 --> 00:28:32,980
+example of these charts يعني خليني أعطيكم مثال على
+
+349
+00:28:32,980 --> 00:28:38,180
+هاي ال charts يعني ناس خطأ بعتقدوا أن ال weak form
+
+350
+00:28:38,180 --> 00:28:41,960
+مبنية
+
+351
+00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:48,480
+على ال chartit means we can predict يعني احنا زي
+
+352
+00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:54,640
+ما انتوا شايفين مثلا بال .. بالشكل بالشكل
+
+353
+00:28:54,640 --> 00:29:00,880
+هذا ان احنا we can use the resistance and support
+
+354
+00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,000
+مفهوم ال resistance وال support مفهوم ال
+
+355
+00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:05,900
+resistance وال support اللي هو نقاط الدعم
+
+356
+00:29:05,900 --> 00:29:10,740
+والمقاومة يعني
+
+357
+00:29:10,740 --> 00:29:19,240
+مثلا احنا لو اجيناأخدنا chart like this
+
+358
+00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:23,740
+and based on the weak form hypothesis وبناء على ال
+
+359
+00:29:23,740 --> 00:29:28,420
+weak form hypothesis we can predict the prices بس
+
+360
+00:29:28,420 --> 00:29:33,280
+هذا اعتقاد خاطرالناس بيعتقدوا غلط لكن ال weak form
+
+361
+00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,660
+hypothesis is not reflected the past prices
+
+362
+00:29:36,660 --> 00:29:41,120
+مابتعكسش ال .. so it is not worth to use this
+
+363
+00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:46,820
+فهدول الناس the only chartist بيعتقدوا the prices
+
+364
+00:29:46,820 --> 00:29:52,420
+move with a channel الأسعار بتمشي بقناع this
+
+365
+00:29:52,420 --> 00:30:00,040
+channel has a resistance R and support S نقاط ال
+
+366
+00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:06,680
+resistanceالوقات المقاومة support what it means
+
+367
+00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:11,820
+this it means look at this chart here which is
+
+368
+00:30:11,820 --> 00:30:18,840
+similar to the chart down here similar like these
+
+369
+00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,940
+charts if you look carefully to these charts you
+
+370
+00:30:21,940 --> 00:30:26,920
+can know the look
+
+371
+00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:32,730
+at here focus on thiswhen the prices try to be
+
+372
+00:30:32,730 --> 00:30:36,970
+close to the resistance لما الأسعار بدها تقترب
+
+373
+00:30:36,970 --> 00:30:44,250
+لهان so this line try to resist the price to push
+
+374
+00:30:44,250 --> 00:30:49,210
+the price down فزي ما احنا بنمسك الكرة و نضربها
+
+375
+00:30:49,210 --> 00:30:53,370
+على الأرضفكتلة الهواء بتمنع الكورة تضالها طال على
+
+376
+00:30:53,370 --> 00:30:58,250
+فوق لو فيش جاذبية أرضية كان ال .. ال .. مشت بطريقة
+
+377
+00:30:58,250 --> 00:31:02,450
+عشوائية فلو إذا ضربنا الكورة كتلة أو حجم ضغط الجو
+
+378
+00:31:02,450 --> 00:31:08,440
+بدفع الكورة أنه تنزل للأرضOkay وحسب القوانين نيوتن
+
+379
+00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,860
+هتدفع لما تضرب في الأرض هتدفعها بقوة إلى أعلى و
+
+380
+00:31:11,860 --> 00:31:15,600
+هكذا فلما نيجي احنا ل .. في ال resistance في ال
+
+381
+00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,080
+resistance boss price down فلأنه بيصير زي ..
+
+382
+00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,740
+بالظبط زي .. زي الكرة انظر على الكرة هتضلها نازلة
+
+383
+00:31:22,740 --> 00:31:28,900
+و هيجي عند ال support عند ال support هتيجي تقترب
+
+384
+00:31:28,900 --> 00:31:32,020
+من ال support and the support اللي هو الأرض هتعمل
+
+385
+00:31:32,020 --> 00:31:37,200
+supporting and kick the ballو هتدفع الكورة لإيش
+
+386
+00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:44,560
+لأعلى and that's it so people in the weak form
+
+387
+00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:50,950
+hypothesis believe that the pricesis not following
+
+388
+00:31:50,950 --> 00:31:54,650
+the random walk مابتمشيش بطريقة عشبائية we can
+
+389
+00:31:54,650 --> 00:31:57,910
+predict the prices by using different charts,
+
+390
+00:31:58,070 --> 00:32:01,330
+different analyses ممكن نستخدم different charts و
+
+391
+00:32:01,330 --> 00:32:04,630
+different analyses واحدة من ال analysis هي support
+
+392
+00:32:04,630 --> 00:32:08,910
+and resistance اللي هو طريقة الدعم و المقاومة في
+
+393
+00:32:08,910 --> 00:32:14,530
+other chart using candles بستخدم الشموع اللي هو
+
+394
+00:32:14,530 --> 00:32:15,430
+Japanese candles
+
+395
+00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:24,180
+Japanese candles يعني الشموع اليابانية لو احنا
+
+396
+00:32:24,180 --> 00:32:27,480
+طلعنا على الشموع مثلا خليني اريكم في شموع
+
+397
+00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:31,820
+اليابانية مثلا الشموع
+
+398
+00:32:31,820 --> 00:32:37,680
+اليابانية مثلا كيف how it works مثلا هي عندنا كتاب
+
+399
+00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,440
+كامل بس بالشموع اليابانية okay there is a big
+
+400
+00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:42,880
+piece of work
+
+401
+00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,200
+لأ السلحة في طريقة تانية في عندك head and
+
+402
+00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,340
+shoulders وفي عندك ال stars وفي عندك ال bears وفي
+
+403
+00:32:52,340 --> 00:32:57,340
+عندك يعني علم كبير مابدناش ندخل فيه تفاصيله شوفوا
+
+404
+00:32:57,340 --> 00:33:03,040
+طريقة الشموع مثلا هلأ أورجيكم طريقة الشموع هلأ
+
+405
+00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:08,240
+بنوضحلكم مش معناها نشوف
+
+406
+00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,680
+طريقة الشموع مثلا if .. if you look at the plaque
+
+407
+00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:17,670
+here the more plaqueيعني شايفين في عندنا شمعة
+
+408
+00:33:17,670 --> 00:33:22,690
+white و شمعة black if the candle is black إذا كانت
+
+409
+00:33:22,690 --> 00:33:27,710
+الشمعة black or red حسب اللون اللي إحنا هنختاره so
+
+410
+00:33:27,710 --> 00:33:32,150
+it means the price is going down if the candle is
+
+411
+00:33:32,150 --> 00:33:36,070
+white it means the prices were going up الأسعار
+
+412
+00:33:36,070 --> 00:33:41,090
+هتطلع لأعلى and if you observe هنا إذا طلعت و هان
+
+413
+00:33:41,090 --> 00:33:45,370
+observe carefully on the candlethis is a very
+
+414
+00:33:45,370 --> 00:33:51,490
+interesting subject هذا موضوع كتير منطق فانتبهوا
+
+415
+00:33:51,490 --> 00:33:55,870
+just people
+
+416
+00:33:55,870 --> 00:33:58,090
+spend a lot of money on understanding these things
+
+417
+00:33:58,090 --> 00:34:02,790
+so you can take it free here انتوا ماخدينها
+
+418
+00:34:02,790 --> 00:34:09,530
+بالبلاش so if you look at this look at this candle
+
+419
+00:34:09,530 --> 00:34:13,670
+this candle for instance is a big comparing with
+
+420
+00:34:13,670 --> 00:34:18,740
+thisو what is the difference between this candle
+
+421
+00:34:18,740 --> 00:34:27,460
+and this candle؟ why it is big؟ this is the
+
+422
+00:34:27,460 --> 00:34:32,200
+question لأ why it is big؟ why this candle is
+
+423
+00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,960
+comparing with this candle big؟
+
+424
+00:34:38,370 --> 00:34:43,670
+كما قلت عندما تنظر إلى الأسعار يجب أن تنظر إلى
+
+425
+00:34:43,670 --> 00:34:46,650
+اتنين أشياء الأسعار ومتداولات المتداولات
+
+426
+00:34:46,650 --> 00:34:48,270
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+427
+00:34:48,270 --> 00:34:48,710
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+428
+00:34:48,710 --> 00:34:49,670
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+429
+00:34:49,670 --> 00:34:50,690
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+430
+00:34:50,690 --> 00:34:51,410
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+431
+00:34:51,410 --> 00:34:51,930
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+432
+00:34:51,930 --> 00:34:54,950
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+433
+00:34:54,950 --> 00:35:00,270
+المتداولات المتداولات
+
+434
+00:35:00,270 --> 00:35:05,630
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+435
+00:35:05,630 --> 00:35:11,210
+المتداولات المbut here is just only 5 million
+
+436
+00:35:11,210 --> 00:35:15,250
+shops يعني هاي الشمعة كبيرة مقارنة مع هاي الشمعة
+
+437
+00:35:15,250 --> 00:35:18,470
+الصغيرة الشمعة الصغيرة انه عدد الصفقات او عدد
+
+438
+00:35:18,470 --> 00:35:22,470
+الأسهم صغير if you look at this candle for
+
+439
+00:35:22,470 --> 00:35:22,970
+instance
+
+440
+00:35:29,220 --> 00:35:33,880
+this big candle comparing with this if we have two
+
+441
+00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,940
+different candles with different size اذا كان
+
+442
+00:35:36,940 --> 00:35:41,380
+عندنا candles different size it means this candle
+
+443
+00:35:41,380 --> 00:35:46,660
+will push the price down less than this candle
+
+444
+00:35:46,660 --> 00:35:53,190
+يعني زي شحن كبير أمامه سيارة صغيرةبس خبطة هيك
+
+445
+00:35:53,190 --> 00:35:57,450
+بيدعمها لبعيد صح؟ لو احنا جبنا just a small car
+
+446
+00:35:57,450 --> 00:36:00,830
+and want to hit the small car فمش هتدفعها كتير
+
+447
+00:36:00,830 --> 00:36:06,650
+فإذا بنلاحظ احنا الشمعة هذه هتنزل السعر بطريقة
+
+448
+00:36:06,650 --> 00:36:12,090
+أكتر من السعر and vice versa و لو كان العكس صحيح
+
+449
+00:36:12,090 --> 00:36:18,330
+فهدول الناس ال people who believe in the weak form
+
+450
+00:36:18,330 --> 00:36:22,370
+hypothesisfollow the .. the technical analysis
+
+451
+00:36:22,370 --> 00:36:27,850
+الناس اللي بيقاملوا بال .. بال weak form الناس
+
+452
+00:36:27,850 --> 00:36:30,310
+اللي بيقاملوا بال .. بال .. بال weak form
+
+453
+00:36:30,310 --> 00:36:36,630
+hypothesis يعني النصوخ ضعيف هم الناس اللي support
+
+454
+00:36:36,630 --> 00:36:38,410
+the technical analysis اللي هو ال technical
+
+455
+00:36:38,410 --> 00:36:44,670
+analysis اللي هو التحليل الفني okay this is very
+
+456
+00:36:44,670 --> 00:36:47,710
+important things فزي ما حكينا في ال .. في ال weak
+
+457
+00:36:47,710 --> 00:36:52,870
+formand this is mistakenly و هذا .. و هذا بطأ يعني
+
+458
+00:36:52,870 --> 00:36:58,690
+بيحكو but in reality the weak form there is no
+
+459
+00:36:58,690 --> 00:37:01,190
+point in doing trends or technical analysis
+
+460
+00:37:01,190 --> 00:37:06,970
+because the .. the historical prices is already
+
+461
+00:37:06,970 --> 00:37:10,050
+reflected in the future prices so why you are
+
+462
+00:37:10,050 --> 00:37:13,250
+analyzing the .. the previous historical prices
+
+463
+00:37:13,250 --> 00:37:16,530
+إذا هي الأسعار المستقبل already بتعكس ال history
+
+464
+00:37:16,530 --> 00:37:23,570
+فليش احنا نروح نحلل ال historyOkay بقى the .. the
+
+465
+00:37:23,570 --> 00:37:26,310
+problem in the weak form hypothesis المشكلة بال
+
+466
+00:37:26,310 --> 00:37:30,550
+weak form hypothesis is not reflected the
+
+467
+00:37:30,550 --> 00:37:34,930
+fundamental information and the private
+
+468
+00:37:34,930 --> 00:37:40,430
+information يعني خلينا هنلخص لو
+
+469
+00:37:40,430 --> 00:37:46,130
+احنا أخدنا هذا الشكل تبقى بس أخدنا هذا الشكل
+
+470
+00:37:51,270 --> 00:38:01,570
+هذه ضعيفة وهذه أقل قوية وهذه قوية السوق الضعيف هنا
+
+471
+00:38:01,570 --> 00:38:08,610
+هو فقط لأسعار التاريخ وهو
+
+472
+00:38:08,610 --> 00:38:13,930
+ليس موضوع أساسي الأسعار
+
+473
+00:38:13,930 --> 00:38:19,290
+وليس موضوع الشخصيات أو الشخصيات
+
+474
+00:38:23,060 --> 00:38:26,080
+Okay يعني هلأ ال weak form بس بعكس ال historical
+
+475
+00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:32,320
+prices So anyone has fundamental prices he or she
+
+476
+00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:35,460
+can get benefit in the weak form markets يعني أي
+
+477
+00:38:35,460 --> 00:38:39,620
+واحد عنده fundamental .. معلومات fundamental فهو
+
+478
+00:38:39,620 --> 00:38:44,000
+هيستفيد كتير احنا بنجح عند هذا الحد و اللي خائل
+
+479
+00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,160
+جاي بنحكي على semi-strong و بنحكي على strong
+
+480
+00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:47,040
+market hypothesis
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3cd03dcbc0678bfcc93bdeb047da3b132030766
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1920 @@
+1
+00:00:20,690 --> 00:00:25,930
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم زي ما حكينا المرة الفاتة
+
+2
+00:00:25,930 --> 00:00:32,030
+this chapter talk about the market efficiency okay
+
+3
+00:00:32,030 --> 00:00:37,190
+the hypothesis of market efficiency just pay
+
+4
+00:00:37,190 --> 00:00:44,430
+attention here the market efficiency okay the
+
+5
+00:00:44,430 --> 00:00:49,490
+market efficiency depends on the central idea that
+
+6
+00:00:50,470 --> 00:00:55,950
+الأسعار تتبع العمل العشوائي الأسعار تتبع العمل
+
+7
+00:00:55,950 --> 00:00:59,730
+العشوائي هذا يعني أن لا أحد يستطيع أن يتوقع أين
+
+8
+00:00:59,730 --> 00:01:06,770
+ستذهب الأسعار يعني الأسعار و الرايحة هذا بالنسبة
+
+9
+00:01:06,770 --> 00:01:10,590
+لأن الأسعار
+
+10
+00:01:10,590 --> 00:01:17,150
+مجموعة كل المعلومات المتوفرةOkay يعني الأسعار كلها
+
+11
+00:01:17,150 --> 00:01:21,170
+بتاخد بالاعتبار كل المعلومات المتاحة, this
+
+12
+00:01:21,170 --> 00:01:26,510
+information is like the insider information يعني
+
+13
+00:01:26,510 --> 00:01:30,290
+المعلومات داخل الشركة or the public information
+
+14
+00:01:31,550 --> 00:01:36,650
+لذلك السعر مجموعة كل هذه المعلومات وعندما يتم
+
+15
+00:01:36,650 --> 00:01:42,390
+مجموعة كل هذه المعلومات سنعتبر أن السوق مفيد إذا
+
+16
+00:01:42,390 --> 00:01:46,910
+فالسوق لم يتم مجموعة كل هذه المعلومات فالسوق غير
+
+17
+00:01:46,910 --> 00:01:53,150
+مفيد و مرة أخرى كما قلت من قبل إذا كان السوق مفيد
+
+18
+00:01:53,150 --> 00:01:57,960
+فلا يوجد تقرار لسوق السوقthe prices follow the
+
+19
+00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:02,000
+random walk يعني الأسعار بتتبع السلوك العشوائي
+
+20
+00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:07,240
+last night الليلة الماضية I tried to .. to know
+
+21
+00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:11,820
+what is the essence of the random walk يعني بدأ
+
+22
+00:02:11,820 --> 00:02:16,850
+أعرف من وين إجت كلمة ال random walkthe random walk
+
+23
+00:02:16,850 --> 00:02:20,150
+is not coined in finance مايجاتش من ال finance
+
+24
+00:02:20,150 --> 00:02:24,530
+it's coined from the psychology science back to
+
+25
+00:02:24,530 --> 00:02:29,030
+1905 اجت من علم النفس في سنة الف تسعمائية و خمسة
+
+26
+00:02:29,030 --> 00:02:34,230
+and this random walk exactly when the drug takers
+
+27
+00:02:34,230 --> 00:02:37,950
+asking them to walkيعني لما بطلبوا من ال drug
+
+28
+00:02:37,950 --> 00:02:43,230
+takers يعني الناس ال alcoholic يعني الناس المدمنين
+
+29
+00:02:43,230 --> 00:02:47,790
+المخدرات و بتوع الكحول فبسألوهم يعني just walk
+
+30
+00:02:47,790 --> 00:02:52,190
+from here to the end يعني امشوا من هنا لنهاية
+
+31
+00:02:52,190 --> 00:02:57,190
+الغرفة so they are randomly walkedيعني بيمشوا
+
+32
+00:02:57,190 --> 00:03:01,010
+بطريقة إيش؟ عشوية So if you ask them to walk to
+
+33
+00:03:01,010 --> 00:03:04,150
+the .. to the end of this room So maybe they go
+
+34
+00:03:04,150 --> 00:03:07,910
+like this and go like this and this till to the
+
+35
+00:03:07,910 --> 00:03:12,150
+end Or maybe not reach to the end ممكن هم مايصلوش
+
+36
+00:03:12,150 --> 00:03:16,710
+لل .. لل end So there is no prediction of these
+
+37
+00:03:16,710 --> 00:03:23,050
+people how they walk مافيش حد بيستطيع يتنبأ And in
+
+38
+00:03:23,050 --> 00:03:29,100
+.. in financethe .. the movement of the price is
+
+39
+00:03:29,100 --> 00:03:33,240
+like the people who take the drugs يعني حركة
+
+40
+00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,720
+الأسعار هي زي الناس اللي بياخدوا ال drugs okay
+
+41
+00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:42,200
+there is no prediction but if these people wake up
+
+42
+00:03:43,980 --> 00:03:49,140
+so they .. we can predict the .. the behavior يعني
+
+43
+00:03:49,140 --> 00:03:52,000
+إذا كانوا هدول الناس صحيح نستطيع إن إحنا نتنبأ
+
+44
+00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:57,280
+عنهم and from the mathematic point of view من وجهة
+
+45
+00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:04,760
+نظر ال mathematicsمن وجهة نظر رياضيات الـ random
+
+46
+00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:11,360
+walk is follow like this x is the observation of
+
+47
+00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:20,460
+the price at t time is equal alpha is for instance
+
+48
+00:04:20,460 --> 00:04:30,930
+هي alpha plus x t minus oneإذا أردت أن أتوقع
+
+49
+00:04:30,930 --> 00:04:38,290
+الأسعار لليوم القادم، فالأمر يعني أسعار اليوم
+
+50
+00:04:38,290 --> 00:04:41,130
+الماضي أكتر من أبسلم
+
+51
+00:04:45,910 --> 00:04:51,010
+So the .. the prices for tomorrow is a function of
+
+52
+00:04:51,010 --> 00:04:55,210
+the prices of yesterday plus the epsilon what it
+
+53
+00:04:55,210 --> 00:04:58,830
+means epsilon هي إيش بتعني epsilon يعني الأسعار
+
+54
+00:04:58,830 --> 00:05:05,890
+بتاعة البكرا هي أسعار أو اليوم هي أسعار بارح زائد
+
+55
+00:05:05,890 --> 00:05:07,110
+ال epsilon
+
+56
+00:05:10,990 --> 00:05:15,230
+يعني ممكن مثلا لو حكينا انه ال .. ايش السعر بتاع
+
+57
+00:05:15,230 --> 00:05:20,410
+اليوم is equal alpha .. alpha ثابت plus XT minus
+
+58
+00:05:20,410 --> 00:05:24,590
+one سعر امبارح كام كان؟ مثلا مائة دولار plus
+
+59
+00:05:24,590 --> 00:05:32,890
+epsilon .. epsilon is .. is the error .. error ..
+
+60
+00:05:32,890 --> 00:05:37,310
+لسبب خطأ this is .. this epsilon is the random
+
+61
+00:05:37,310 --> 00:05:42,220
+walkbecause if you know the one hundred is the
+
+62
+00:05:42,220 --> 00:05:45,440
+price of yesterday اذا احنا عرفنا السعر بتاع بارح
+
+63
+00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:49,940
+هو مية دولار what is the price today is a function
+
+64
+00:05:49,940 --> 00:05:54,300
+of the price yesterday plus the error and error هي
+
+65
+00:05:54,300 --> 00:06:00,320
+is وال error هان هي is randomly generated randomly
+
+66
+00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:05,640
+generated يعني هي تيجي بطريقة عشوائية for instance
+
+67
+00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:12,130
+it could be twoit could be one it could be minus
+
+68
+00:06:12,130 --> 00:06:16,970
+one it means in other ways it is minus alpha to
+
+69
+00:06:16,970 --> 00:06:20,770
+plus alpha يعني
+
+70
+00:06:20,770 --> 00:06:23,970
+هي بتمتد من minus alpha to plus alpha so nobody
+
+71
+00:06:23,970 --> 00:06:28,250
+knows what is the epsilon ماحدش بيعرف ال epsilon
+
+72
+00:06:28,250 --> 00:06:33,110
+because it is randomly generatedلأنه هي randomly
+
+73
+00:06:33,110 --> 00:06:38,130
+generated يعني بطريقة عشوائية this is from the
+
+74
+00:06:38,130 --> 00:06:40,590
+mathematic point of view هذه من وجهة نظر ال
+
+75
+00:06:40,590 --> 00:06:43,770
+mathematics and statisticians point of view من
+
+76
+00:06:43,770 --> 00:06:49,170
+وجهة نظر الإحصاء من وجهة نظر ال ..
+
+77
+00:06:49,170 --> 00:06:55,970
+هذه معادلة ال random walk XT اللي هو السعر اللي
+
+78
+00:06:55,970 --> 00:07:00,090
+احنا نتوقعه بتساوي alpha يعني خلينا لو جي مثلا
+
+79
+00:07:00,090 --> 00:07:01,250
+okay
+
+80
+00:07:03,980 --> 00:07:08,900
+this is a random walk some people they they think
+
+81
+00:07:08,900 --> 00:07:12,240
+this is not follow the random walk because this
+
+82
+00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,360
+curve is أبواد يعني طالع but in general this is
+
+83
+00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:20,960
+randomly walked يعني هذا بسلك طريقة عشوائية no
+
+84
+00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,820
+prediction for instance if you are here sitting
+
+85
+00:07:23,820 --> 00:07:27,380
+standing here are you sure that the prices will go
+
+86
+00:07:27,380 --> 00:07:31,740
+down or go up you don't know because
+
+87
+00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:38,540
+the prices is a function of the epsilon لأن
+
+88
+00:07:38,540 --> 00:07:42,080
+الأسعار هي دالة في ال epsilon ال epsilon هي
+
+89
+00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:53,900
+randomly generated okay so
+
+90
+00:07:53,900 --> 00:07:59,340
+this is the .. the meaning of the random walk هذا
+
+91
+00:07:59,340 --> 00:08:00,440
+مفهوم ال random walk
+
+92
+00:08:04,180 --> 00:08:08,300
+الطريقة العشوائية في صورة الأسعار if again if the
+
+93
+00:08:08,300 --> 00:08:12,660
+prices follow the random walk so the market is
+
+94
+00:08:12,660 --> 00:08:17,960
+efficient الأسعار بتكون efficient if it is not so
+
+95
+00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:23,420
+the market is not efficient okay so stock prices
+
+96
+00:08:23,420 --> 00:08:28,270
+follow a random walkand this is example how this
+
+97
+00:08:28,270 --> 00:08:33,550
+in in the day of the news which is zero when they
+
+98
+00:08:33,550 --> 00:08:38,150
+announce the news nobody know where is this news
+
+99
+00:08:38,150 --> 00:08:41,270
+announced ماحدش بيعرف وين الأسعار هتطلع وين
+
+100
+00:08:41,270 --> 00:08:45,930
+المعلومات هتطلع and because of this no one can
+
+101
+00:08:45,930 --> 00:08:50,110
+predict the behavior of the price وماحدش بيقدر
+
+102
+00:08:50,110 --> 00:08:57,440
+يتنبأ الأسعار وين هتروحOkay and في .. في كتير
+
+103
+00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,960
+examples في ال .. يعني هلأ مثلا بيحكوا على ال ..
+
+104
+00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:04,960
+إيران و مشاكل إيران رغم هيك أنه أسعار الدهب خفتت
+
+105
+00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:10,320
+صح ولا لأ؟ و بتسألي يعني ..if you want to talk
+
+106
+00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,280
+about the war in Iran it means the gold prices
+
+107
+00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:17,780
+should jump يعني الأسعار الدهب لازم ترتفع but now
+
+108
+00:09:17,780 --> 00:09:24,800
+the gold prices is going down nobody knows ماحدش
+
+109
+00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:27,520
+بتوقع اللي بيصير في الأسعار this is the market why
+
+110
+00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:33,240
+why nobody can predict because why it is random
+
+111
+00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:39,040
+walk ليش random walk becausebecause all of the
+
+112
+00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,560
+information because all of the information is
+
+113
+00:09:42,560 --> 00:09:46,380
+reflected in in the prices even the new
+
+114
+00:09:46,380 --> 00:09:49,960
+information is reflected in the prices and the
+
+115
+00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:55,100
+prices is expected the future behavior كمان أسعار
+
+116
+00:09:55,100 --> 00:10:00,000
+بتتنبأ للمستقبل و هذا مش موجود عند الأفراد تمام؟
+
+117
+00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:04,020
+and this is example of the random walk of the
+
+118
+00:10:04,020 --> 00:10:05,380
+behavior of the
+
+119
+00:10:10,140 --> 00:10:14,580
+as I explained the competition is one of the
+
+120
+00:10:14,580 --> 00:10:20,460
+source of the market efficiency المنافسة المنافسة
+
+121
+00:10:20,460 --> 00:10:27,000
+بين ال investors regarding the information يعني
+
+122
+00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:30,720
+المنافسة بينهم حاولوا الحصول على المعلومات some
+
+123
+00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,840
+investors they have precious information they have
+
+124
+00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,820
+private information and others they don't have
+
+125
+00:10:36,820 --> 00:10:39,460
+وبعض الناس ما عندهمش معلومات
+
+126
+00:10:41,690 --> 00:10:44,370
+So in the strong competition, I choose prices
+
+127
+00:10:44,370 --> 00:10:49,490
+reflect information فلمّا يكون عندي أنا strong
+
+128
+00:10:49,490 --> 00:10:53,230
+competition between the investors لأنه ال
+
+129
+00:10:53,230 --> 00:10:57,290
+investors they spend money and time in analyzing
+
+130
+00:10:57,290 --> 00:11:02,770
+the information يعني بي .. بيندوا وقت طويل و
+
+131
+00:11:02,770 --> 00:11:07,350
+بيدفعوا فلوس حتى يحللوا المعلومات and to get a new
+
+132
+00:11:07,350 --> 00:11:13,290
+information و يحصلوا على معلومات جديدةonce they
+
+133
+00:11:13,290 --> 00:11:16,890
+uncover these information .. once they locate this
+
+134
+00:11:16,890 --> 00:11:20,850
+informationthe .. the prices already reflected
+
+135
+00:11:20,850 --> 00:11:23,750
+this price .. this information so what is the
+
+136
+00:11:23,750 --> 00:11:27,550
+reason of spend time and money in collecting the
+
+137
+00:11:27,550 --> 00:11:30,870
+information and the prices is already reflected
+
+138
+00:11:30,870 --> 00:11:34,410
+this information يعني أن بعض الناس بروح ب .. ب ..
+
+139
+00:11:34,410 --> 00:11:38,230
+ب .. بنفقوا أموال و فلوس و وقت و .. و .. حتى
+
+140
+00:11:38,230 --> 00:11:41,570
+يحصلوا على معلومات و حتى لما يجدوا المعلومات أصلا
+
+141
+00:11:41,570 --> 00:11:44,490
+أسعار reflected this informationso there is no
+
+142
+00:11:44,490 --> 00:11:47,890
+reason مافيش داعي ان احنا ندور على هذه المعلومات
+
+143
+00:11:47,890 --> 00:11:53,730
+لأن بالاخير المعلومات موجودة في السعر نفسه okay
+
+144
+00:11:53,730 --> 00:11:57,670
+هذا حسب ال efficient market hypothesis efficient
+
+145
+00:11:57,670 --> 00:12:03,570
+market hypothesis فبصير competition between the
+
+146
+00:12:03,570 --> 00:12:07,350
+investors to collect this private information بصير
+
+147
+00:12:07,350 --> 00:12:11,930
+منافسة بين ال investors حتى يجمعوا البياناتthe
+
+148
+00:12:11,930 --> 00:12:15,370
+more the competition is the more the efficient
+
+149
+00:12:15,370 --> 00:12:20,290
+price كل مكان فيه منافسة أكتر كل مكان ال price is
+
+150
+00:12:20,290 --> 00:12:26,410
+efficient لأنه بتكون المعلومات أكتر and the
+
+151
+00:12:26,410 --> 00:12:29,510
+information is available to the public but
+
+152
+00:12:29,510 --> 00:12:36,110
+sometimes one of the investor discover a
+
+153
+00:12:36,110 --> 00:12:39,530
+particular information let's take this example
+
+154
+00:12:39,530 --> 00:12:44,760
+herea particular investor spending time and money
+
+155
+00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:49,060
+and locate information يعني بذل جهد و وقت حتى يحصل
+
+156
+00:12:49,060 --> 00:12:53,140
+على معلومات he
+
+157
+00:12:53,140 --> 00:12:55,620
+only can use this new information for one time
+
+158
+00:12:55,620 --> 00:13:00,640
+يعني حتى لو حصل على هذه المعلومات بس بستطيع
+
+159
+00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:05,400
+يستخدمها مرة واحد why because once he or she use
+
+160
+00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:09,310
+this informationthe price is reflected in this new
+
+161
+00:13:09,310 --> 00:13:13,330
+information and he or she cannot use this again
+
+162
+00:13:13,330 --> 00:13:18,890
+يعني هو اكتشف طريقة مثلا لدى
+
+163
+00:13:18,890 --> 00:13:22,350
+سلوك سعر او طريقة او معلومة معينة فهو هيستخدم
+
+164
+00:13:22,350 --> 00:13:26,060
+هيروح يشتري مثلافهو استخدمها مرة واحدة مش هيروح
+
+165
+00:13:26,060 --> 00:13:30,520
+يستخدمها كمان مرة لأنه السوق عرف هذه المعلومة and
+
+166
+00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,360
+this information is publicly available و هذه
+
+167
+00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:39,020
+المعلومات هي متوفرة بشكل .. خلينا نشوف مثلا واحد
+
+168
+00:13:39,020 --> 00:13:45,180
+من ال investors .. ال investors شافها ال .. شافها
+
+169
+00:13:45,180 --> 00:13:50,600
+الطريقة هذه what do you think about this .. this
+
+170
+00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:50,980
+chart
+
+171
+00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:00,160
+look at this chart اتطلعوا على هذا ال .. ال chart
+
+172
+00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:03,640
+and
+
+173
+00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,660
+this was pay their attention to understand this
+
+174
+00:14:06,660 --> 00:14:11,660
+chart ف if they understand or if they discover
+
+175
+00:14:11,660 --> 00:14:15,800
+something in this chart the markets will reflect
+
+176
+00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:20,020
+this again يعني السوق هيعرف ان هدول عرفوا هيغير
+
+177
+00:14:20,020 --> 00:14:22,940
+السلوك تبع السعر خلينا نشوف ايش .. what you
+
+178
+00:14:22,940 --> 00:14:25,440
+observe in this chart
+
+179
+00:14:29,550 --> 00:14:34,570
+what you observe in this chart؟ اوكي ايش .. ايش
+
+180
+00:14:34,570 --> 00:14:39,270
+you observe؟ اول شي كان عندنا الاسعار up كان اول
+
+181
+00:14:39,270 --> 00:14:42,770
+الحالة صغيرة و بعدها اتبارك ايه هي random one اوكي
+
+182
+00:14:42,770 --> 00:14:50,590
+اوكي
+
+183
+00:14:50,590 --> 00:14:54,770
+ممكن
+
+184
+00:14:54,770 --> 00:15:00,800
+شوفناس تانين شوفوا إيش رأيكم بال .. why you
+
+185
+00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:05,900
+observe in this؟ و
+
+186
+00:15:05,900 --> 00:15:11,400
+طب فاطمة ماحكتش صح اخو
+
+187
+00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,280
+تخافوش إيش .. إيش بتشوفه في الرسمة هاي؟ very
+
+188
+00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:21,280
+simple رسمة سهلة و مابدهاش فضل أول حاجة كانت إنه
+
+189
+00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:27,110
+طريقة أسعار كل طوابق جامعةبممكن ان يفهمها ال
+
+190
+00:15:27,110 --> 00:15:32,430
+teacher كيف هيفهمها ان
+
+191
+00:15:32,430 --> 00:15:37,170
+هو انا ال teacher ان هو حق خلاص و صدقني ساعد في ال
+
+192
+00:15:37,170 --> 00:15:43,630
+top when when it is he in the top لأ انا بحكي لك
+
+193
+00:15:43,630 --> 00:15:44,750
+دستاني okay okay
+
+194
+00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:06,480
+Okay خلينا نسهل كمان سهل شايفين اقبعوا just depict
+
+195
+00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:09,700
+this chart اقبعوه فى راسكم بدا امحي جزء من ال
+
+196
+00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:17,490
+chart okay طيب امحيت الجزء 1بتقدر تعمل prediction
+
+197
+00:16:17,490 --> 00:16:22,850
+for the .. the next؟ بتعرف ايه؟ لو انا نفسي اقصدها
+
+198
+00:16:22,850 --> 00:16:28,350
+اكمل نفس الفرق لكن لو انا نفسي اقصدها اكمل نفس
+
+199
+00:16:28,350 --> 00:16:33,470
+الفرق اه okay برجيني عشان نشوف if you discover
+
+200
+00:16:33,470 --> 00:16:42,030
+this اقرص
+
+201
+00:16:42,030 --> 00:16:46,980
+برا اسمها feel free يعنيفاهمليها لما انا بغمض هنا
+
+202
+00:16:46,980 --> 00:16:51,440
+يعني .. خلاص؟ لكن لو انا .. لو انا بتحكي أسعارك
+
+203
+00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,840
+اللي هتاخدها او انه ال .. اكتشف ال investor فهغير
+
+204
+00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:59,600
+في السؤال .. okay شكرا هلأ خلينا نشوف this is why
+
+205
+00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:03,480
+.. this is why investors they spend time and money
+
+206
+00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,820
+in understanding this information هذه معلومات
+
+207
+00:17:07,820 --> 00:17:15,130
+موجودة فهم هي .. احنا طبعا محينا الجزء هذا صح؟طيب
+
+208
+00:17:15,130 --> 00:17:19,010
+لو احنا طلعنا عن الرسمة بتبعتك كانت الرسمة هيك صح؟
+
+209
+00:17:19,010 --> 00:17:25,970
+this is your chart بق ال investors بيحاولوا to see
+
+210
+00:17:25,970 --> 00:17:32,430
+things that other people don't see this هم هيشوفوا
+
+211
+00:17:32,430 --> 00:17:36,110
+شغل الناس التاني مش شوفوه once they observe this
+
+212
+00:17:36,110 --> 00:17:40,370
+and the financial market know this the financial
+
+213
+00:17:40,370 --> 00:17:45,690
+market consider thisيعني إذا هم اكتشفوا شغلها في
+
+214
+00:17:45,690 --> 00:17:50,870
+السوق الناس تانية مش عارفينها فالسوق المالي مجرد
+
+215
+00:17:50,870 --> 00:17:54,710
+ما هدول ال investors يكتشفوها فهيروح يعدل المساخ
+
+216
+00:17:54,710 --> 00:18:00,250
+تبعه ويمشي بطريقة تانية بحيث ماحدش يعرف زي ما انت
+
+217
+00:18:00,250 --> 00:18:03,410
+حكيت إنه ممكن يكون هكذا بس خلينا نعطيكي معلومة
+
+218
+00:18:03,410 --> 00:18:09,310
+شوية إضافية لو احنا طلعنا هنا one اعطينا مثلا one
+
+219
+00:18:09,310 --> 00:18:10,610
+okay
+
+220
+00:18:17,900 --> 00:18:22,680
+the price هذا هو ال price ال time ال time وهذا ال
+
+221
+00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:27,780
+time وهذا ال price okay هلا عدوا هان one two three
+
+222
+00:18:27,780 --> 00:18:37,340
+بعد the third one the prices is going down okay
+
+223
+00:18:37,340 --> 00:18:44,720
+then it should behave like this so one two three
+
+224
+00:18:46,730 --> 00:18:53,790
+and going down so one two three يعني هاكتشف واحد
+
+225
+00:18:53,790 --> 00:18:57,190
+من ال investors ان هدول عملوا تلت مرات و بعدين is
+
+226
+00:18:57,190 --> 00:19:01,290
+going down هعملوا تلت مرات and going down once
+
+227
+00:19:01,290 --> 00:19:05,850
+they discover this trend مباشرة ما هم يكتشفوا هذا
+
+228
+00:19:05,850 --> 00:19:09,750
+ال trend ال financial markets after this will
+
+229
+00:19:09,750 --> 00:19:11,310
+behave like .. like this
+
+230
+00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,540
+ال financial market هيجي و يغير بطريقة أخرى
+
+231
+00:19:18,540 --> 00:19:23,380
+because it's been discovered by the .. by a
+
+232
+00:19:23,380 --> 00:19:26,960
+particular investor يعني لأنه تم اكتشافها بطريقة
+
+233
+00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:31,700
+ال particular investors okay in this way .. in
+
+234
+00:19:31,700 --> 00:19:35,340
+this way the financial market beat all of the
+
+235
+00:19:35,340 --> 00:19:38,420
+market participants يعني السوق المالي بهزم الكل
+
+236
+00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,520
+because you just one time you can make the
+
+237
+00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,960
+abnormal return but next time you cannot do this
+
+238
+00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,760
+يعني أنت هتعمل مرة واحدة ال abnormal return بس
+
+239
+00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:55,300
+المرة اللي بعديها مش هتعرف ال financial
+
+240
+00:19:55,300 --> 00:19:59,860
+market yes because it is efficient market how this
+
+241
+00:19:59,860 --> 00:20:02,580
+need some mathematical and some statistics to
+
+242
+00:20:02,580 --> 00:20:10,670
+prove thisكيف طبعا نحتاج شوية mathematics مع شوية
+
+243
+00:20:10,670 --> 00:20:15,530
+رياضيات عشان نوريكي فعلا they can predict this
+
+244
+00:20:15,530 --> 00:20:23,690
+okay and
+
+245
+00:20:23,690 --> 00:20:29,150
+the second things because the investors think the
+
+246
+00:20:29,150 --> 00:20:33,230
+more information that they have the more return
+
+247
+00:20:33,230 --> 00:20:36,580
+they can getكل ما بيكون عندهم معلومات أكتر بيكون
+
+248
+00:20:36,580 --> 00:20:40,280
+عندهم عائد أكتر So it is .. it is from their point
+
+249
+00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:44,280
+of view it is valuable to spend time and .. and
+
+250
+00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:49,240
+money in collecting private information and
+
+251
+00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,220
+understanding this information عشان هيك it is
+
+252
+00:20:52,220 --> 00:20:56,080
+reasonable to them to .. to know about this
+
+253
+00:20:56,080 --> 00:21:01,330
+private informationيعني بيصير كتير انهم يستثمروا
+
+254
+00:21:01,330 --> 00:21:04,950
+في هذه المعلومات ليش؟ لأنهم بيعتقدوا انه جمع
+
+255
+00:21:04,950 --> 00:21:10,010
+المعلومات giving them the advantage of getting
+
+256
+00:21:10,010 --> 00:21:13,330
+higher return بيعطيهم ميزة انهم بيحصلوا على قائد
+
+257
+00:21:13,330 --> 00:21:18,970
+أعلى the
+
+258
+00:21:18,970 --> 00:21:22,570
+marginal .. the problem is now and we will address
+
+259
+00:21:22,570 --> 00:21:28,860
+this problem in the future the small investorsit
+
+260
+00:21:28,860 --> 00:21:33,060
+is costly for the small investors to looking for
+
+261
+00:21:33,060 --> 00:21:38,040
+information for instance if we have one investor
+
+262
+00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:45,460
+with 1000$ to invest so our question is how much
+
+263
+00:21:45,460 --> 00:21:51,400
+he needs to looking for information but if we have
+
+264
+00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:57,940
+investor B with millions of dollarsso it is worth
+
+265
+00:21:57,940 --> 00:22:02,540
+for him or her to gathering information يعني إذا
+
+266
+00:22:02,540 --> 00:22:06,180
+أنا مستثمر معاه بس ألف دولار و بده يروح يدور على
+
+267
+00:22:06,180 --> 00:22:10,060
+معلومات في يعني بده يضيع الفلوس تبعته و يدور على
+
+268
+00:22:10,060 --> 00:22:15,990
+المعلومات but for this investor Bhe or she has one
+
+269
+00:22:15,990 --> 00:22:20,690
+million and if he just spent one percent of the
+
+270
+00:22:20,690 --> 00:22:25,090
+one million it's worse for them so what is the
+
+271
+00:22:25,090 --> 00:22:28,930
+solution for the investor A؟ ايش الحالة investor
+
+272
+00:22:28,930 --> 00:22:33,050
+A؟ the solution for the investor A is to go to the
+
+273
+00:22:33,050 --> 00:22:38,630
+mutual funds لازم يروح على ال mutual funds because
+
+274
+00:22:38,630 --> 00:22:43,740
+the mutual fund managersmortual fund managers are
+
+275
+00:22:43,740 --> 00:22:47,500
+specialized in collecting data and they can get
+
+276
+00:22:47,500 --> 00:22:50,700
+benefits from the economies of scale يعني
+
+277
+00:22:50,700 --> 00:22:53,680
+بيستفيدوا كمان من شغلة اسمها economies of scale
+
+278
+00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:57,180
+اللي هو حجم الاقتصاد الكبير لإن في كتير investors
+
+279
+00:22:57,180 --> 00:23:03,120
+with 1000$ لإن في هيكون في investors ب1000$ هيروح
+
+280
+00:23:03,120 --> 00:23:06,020
+يودوا ال 1000$ هاي ل الmortual funds و الmortual
+
+281
+00:23:06,020 --> 00:23:09,360
+funds it is worth with them to look for
+
+282
+00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:14,840
+information okayلذلك تجارب التجارب على عملية
+
+283
+00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,080
+التحقيق يمكن أن تكون صغيرة جدًا لإن مدير أكبر
+
+284
+00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:24,660
+شركات تجاربها ستجدها قيمة لهم فقط لأكبر عملية
+
+285
+00:23:24,660 --> 00:23:31,840
+تجاربها كما تشاهد هنا هي قيمة لهم للجمع والتحقق
+
+286
+00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:36,020
+والتحقق من المعلومات ولكن لأشخاص فقط بواسطة ألف
+
+287
+00:23:36,020 --> 00:23:40,180
+دولار صعب عليهم التجارب والتحقق والتحقق من
+
+288
+00:23:40,180 --> 00:23:45,010
+المعلوماتيعني المستثمرين الكبار كويس لهم أنهم
+
+289
+00:23:45,010 --> 00:23:48,570
+يجمعوا معلومات و يحللوها لأنهم بيستخدموا منطق
+
+290
+00:23:48,570 --> 00:23:53,190
+الوفرة الاقتصادية الكبيرة أو حجم الاقتصاد الكبير
+
+291
+00:23:53,190 --> 00:23:58,170
+لكن بالنسبة لل investors الصغار المستثمرين الصغار
+
+292
+00:23:58,170 --> 00:24:04,390
+it cost them هتكلفهم كتير okay so this is why the
+
+293
+00:24:04,390 --> 00:24:08,030
+small investors are recommended to invest their
+
+294
+00:24:08,030 --> 00:24:11,510
+money with the mutual fund managersعشان هيك احنا
+
+295
+00:24:11,510 --> 00:24:16,130
+بننصح المستثمر الصغير يروحوا ل marital funds لأو
+
+296
+00:24:16,130 --> 00:24:21,750
+صندوق الاستثمار okay in the light of this
+
+297
+00:24:21,750 --> 00:24:25,770
+understanding and in the light of the random walk
+
+298
+00:24:25,770 --> 00:24:33,490
+our question is بدوء المفهوم ال random walk and
+
+299
+00:24:33,490 --> 00:24:37,690
+the efficient market hypothesis ومفهوم النظرية
+
+300
+00:24:37,690 --> 00:24:42,310
+الأسواق الكفوةwe can categorize the markets into
+
+301
+00:24:42,310 --> 00:24:46,550
+three main forms or versions ممكن نقسم الأسواق إلى
+
+302
+00:24:46,550 --> 00:24:51,050
+تلت أنواع من الأسواق حسب الكفاءة some people they
+
+303
+00:24:51,050 --> 00:24:54,850
+don't believe that the market is efficient بعض
+
+304
+00:24:54,850 --> 00:24:57,070
+الناس مابيقبلوش أن السوق is efficient we can
+
+305
+00:24:57,070 --> 00:25:01,010
+predict the prices we can know what is going in
+
+306
+00:25:01,010 --> 00:25:04,390
+the financial markets ممكن نعرف شو بيصير في ال
+
+307
+00:25:04,390 --> 00:25:07,030
+financial markets we can predict what is the
+
+308
+00:25:07,030 --> 00:25:12,090
+prices for tomorrowممكن نعرف الأسعار بكرا if we
+
+309
+00:25:12,090 --> 00:25:14,790
+know the prices for tomorrow it means we are
+
+310
+00:25:14,790 --> 00:25:18,490
+working in the inefficient markets إذا احنا بنعرف
+
+311
+00:25:18,490 --> 00:25:21,390
+شو بيصير بكرا، يعني الكلام .. this is inefficient
+
+312
+00:25:21,390 --> 00:25:26,670
+markets so again some people or some investors and
+
+313
+00:25:26,670 --> 00:25:31,090
+some academic people some big professors think the
+
+314
+00:25:31,090 --> 00:25:40,810
+market is not efficientback to 1965 يوجين فاما he
+
+315
+00:25:40,810 --> 00:25:43,070
+was the first one to prove that the market is
+
+316
+00:25:43,070 --> 00:25:46,530
+efficient كان أول واحد أثبت أنه ال market
+
+317
+00:25:46,530 --> 00:25:50,910
+efficient هو يوجين فاما واحد من أكبر كتاب ال
+
+318
+00:25:50,910 --> 00:25:56,070
+financial management هو أثبت أنه السوق المالي كفه
+
+319
+00:25:56,070 --> 00:26:00,430
+some other authors after him they proved that the
+
+320
+00:26:00,430 --> 00:26:05,350
+market is not efficientSo in the light of all of
+
+321
+00:26:05,350 --> 00:26:09,330
+these arguments في ضوء كل هال arguments و
+
+322
+00:26:09,330 --> 00:26:12,790
+هالنقاشات and discussion We have three main levels
+
+323
+00:26:12,790 --> 00:26:18,990
+of the market efficiency We have a weak, we have
+
+324
+00:26:18,990 --> 00:26:24,950
+semi-strong and we have the strong The main issue
+
+325
+00:26:24,950 --> 00:26:30,330
+thatmake us to judge whether this market is weak
+
+326
+00:26:30,330 --> 00:26:33,850
+or strong or semi-strong is the availability of
+
+327
+00:26:33,850 --> 00:26:38,330
+the information يعني الشغل اللي بتخليني أميز أنه
+
+328
+00:26:38,330 --> 00:26:45,510
+هذا is weak ضعيف semi-strong شبه قوي قوي هو مدى
+
+329
+00:26:45,510 --> 00:26:50,710
+availability of information مدى توفر المعلومات for
+
+330
+00:26:50,710 --> 00:26:55,230
+instance if you look at the weak marketsإذا احنا
+
+331
+00:26:55,230 --> 00:26:59,730
+نظرنا لل weak markets the weak market is only
+
+332
+00:26:59,730 --> 00:27:04,990
+reflected the historical prices يعني
+
+333
+00:27:04,990 --> 00:27:11,890
+ال weak market السوق الضعيف فقط بيعكس الأسعار
+
+334
+00:27:11,890 --> 00:27:18,670
+السابقة that's it the past historical prices and
+
+335
+00:27:18,670 --> 00:27:23,920
+the trading volume as wellthe historical prices
+
+336
+00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:31,380
+الأسعار و ال trading volume حجم التداول okay and
+
+337
+00:27:31,380 --> 00:27:35,960
+based on this understanding or based on the weak
+
+338
+00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:41,120
+form hypothesis it means there is no worth to use
+
+339
+00:27:41,120 --> 00:27:48,460
+the chart مافيش اهمية لاستخدام ال chart اللي هو
+
+340
+00:27:48,460 --> 00:27:52,370
+الرسومات البيانيةsome people they they think
+
+341
+00:27:52,370 --> 00:27:57,910
+mistakenly think that the weak form hypothesis not
+
+342
+00:27:57,910 --> 00:28:02,270
+reflected the historical prices ده ناس بيتقضوا أنه
+
+343
+00:28:02,270 --> 00:28:05,550
+ما ال ال weak form مابيعكسش ال historical prices
+
+344
+00:28:05,550 --> 00:28:12,650
+but the weak form hypothesis is reflected the weak
+
+345
+00:28:12,650 --> 00:28:21,020
+form pricesBased on this and the people who
+
+346
+00:28:21,020 --> 00:28:26,320
+believe that the market is inefficient mistakenly
+
+347
+00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:30,180
+use the charts بستخدموا ال charts I will give you
+
+348
+00:28:30,180 --> 00:28:32,980
+example of these charts يعني خليني أعطيكم مثال على
+
+349
+00:28:32,980 --> 00:28:38,180
+هاي ال charts يعني ناس خطأ بعتقدوا أن ال weak form
+
+350
+00:28:38,180 --> 00:28:41,960
+مبنية
+
+351
+00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:48,480
+على ال chartit means we can predict يعني احنا زي
+
+352
+00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:54,640
+ما انتوا شايفين مثلا بال .. بالشكل بالشكل
+
+353
+00:28:54,640 --> 00:29:00,880
+هذا ان احنا we can use the resistance and support
+
+354
+00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,000
+مفهوم ال resistance وال support مفهوم ال
+
+355
+00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:05,900
+resistance وال support اللي هو نقاط الدعم
+
+356
+00:29:05,900 --> 00:29:10,740
+والمقاومة يعني
+
+357
+00:29:10,740 --> 00:29:19,240
+مثلا احنا لو اجيناأخدنا chart like this
+
+358
+00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:23,740
+and based on the weak form hypothesis وبناء على ال
+
+359
+00:29:23,740 --> 00:29:28,420
+weak form hypothesis we can predict the prices بس
+
+360
+00:29:28,420 --> 00:29:33,280
+هذا اعتقاد خاطرالناس بيعتقدوا غلط لكن ال weak form
+
+361
+00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,660
+hypothesis is not reflected the past prices
+
+362
+00:29:36,660 --> 00:29:41,120
+مابتعكسش ال .. so it is not worth to use this
+
+363
+00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:46,820
+فهدول الناس the only chartist بيعتقدوا the prices
+
+364
+00:29:46,820 --> 00:29:52,420
+move with a channel الأسعار بتمشي بقناع this
+
+365
+00:29:52,420 --> 00:30:00,040
+channel has a resistance R and support S نقاط ال
+
+366
+00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:06,680
+resistanceالوقات المقاومة support what it means
+
+367
+00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:11,820
+this it means look at this chart here which is
+
+368
+00:30:11,820 --> 00:30:18,840
+similar to the chart down here similar like these
+
+369
+00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,940
+charts if you look carefully to these charts you
+
+370
+00:30:21,940 --> 00:30:26,920
+can know the look
+
+371
+00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:32,730
+at here focus on thiswhen the prices try to be
+
+372
+00:30:32,730 --> 00:30:36,970
+close to the resistance لما الأسعار بدها تقترب
+
+373
+00:30:36,970 --> 00:30:44,250
+لهان so this line try to resist the price to push
+
+374
+00:30:44,250 --> 00:30:49,210
+the price down فزي ما احنا بنمسك الكرة و نضربها
+
+375
+00:30:49,210 --> 00:30:53,370
+على الأرضفكتلة الهواء بتمنع الكورة تضالها طال على
+
+376
+00:30:53,370 --> 00:30:58,250
+فوق لو فيش جاذبية أرضية كان ال .. ال .. مشت بطريقة
+
+377
+00:30:58,250 --> 00:31:02,450
+عشوائية فلو إذا ضربنا الكورة كتلة أو حجم ضغط الجو
+
+378
+00:31:02,450 --> 00:31:08,440
+بدفع الكورة أنه تنزل للأرضOkay وحسب القوانين نيوتن
+
+379
+00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,860
+هتدفع لما تضرب في الأرض هتدفعها بقوة إلى أعلى و
+
+380
+00:31:11,860 --> 00:31:15,600
+هكذا فلما نيجي احنا ل .. في ال resistance في ال
+
+381
+00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,080
+resistance boss price down فلأنه بيصير زي ..
+
+382
+00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,740
+بالظبط زي .. زي الكرة انظر على الكرة هتضلها نازلة
+
+383
+00:31:22,740 --> 00:31:28,900
+و هيجي عند ال support عند ال support هتيجي تقترب
+
+384
+00:31:28,900 --> 00:31:32,020
+من ال support and the support اللي هو الأرض هتعمل
+
+385
+00:31:32,020 --> 00:31:37,200
+supporting and kick the ballو هتدفع الكورة لإيش
+
+386
+00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:44,560
+لأعلى and that's it so people in the weak form
+
+387
+00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:50,950
+hypothesis believe that the pricesis not following
+
+388
+00:31:50,950 --> 00:31:54,650
+the random walk مابتمشيش بطريقة عشبائية we can
+
+389
+00:31:54,650 --> 00:31:57,910
+predict the prices by using different charts,
+
+390
+00:31:58,070 --> 00:32:01,330
+different analyses ممكن نستخدم different charts و
+
+391
+00:32:01,330 --> 00:32:04,630
+different analyses واحدة من ال analysis هي support
+
+392
+00:32:04,630 --> 00:32:08,910
+and resistance اللي هو طريقة الدعم و المقاومة في
+
+393
+00:32:08,910 --> 00:32:14,530
+other chart using candles بستخدم الشموع اللي هو
+
+394
+00:32:14,530 --> 00:32:15,430
+Japanese candles
+
+395
+00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:24,180
+Japanese candles يعني الشموع اليابانية لو احنا
+
+396
+00:32:24,180 --> 00:32:27,480
+طلعنا على الشموع مثلا خليني اريكم في شموع
+
+397
+00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:31,820
+اليابانية مثلا الشموع
+
+398
+00:32:31,820 --> 00:32:37,680
+اليابانية مثلا كيف how it works مثلا هي عندنا كتاب
+
+399
+00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,440
+كامل بس بالشموع اليابانية okay there is a big
+
+400
+00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:42,880
+piece of work
+
+401
+00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,200
+لأ السلحة في طريقة تانية في عندك head and
+
+402
+00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,340
+shoulders وفي عندك ال stars وفي عندك ال bears وفي
+
+403
+00:32:52,340 --> 00:32:57,340
+عندك يعني علم كبير مابدناش ندخل فيه تفاصيله شوفوا
+
+404
+00:32:57,340 --> 00:33:03,040
+طريقة الشموع مثلا هلأ أورجيكم طريقة الشموع هلأ
+
+405
+00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:08,240
+بنوضحلكم مش معناها نشوف
+
+406
+00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,680
+طريقة الشموع مثلا if .. if you look at the plaque
+
+407
+00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:17,670
+here the more plaqueيعني شايفين في عندنا شمعة
+
+408
+00:33:17,670 --> 00:33:22,690
+white و شمعة black if the candle is black إذا كانت
+
+409
+00:33:22,690 --> 00:33:27,710
+الشمعة black or red حسب اللون اللي إحنا هنختاره so
+
+410
+00:33:27,710 --> 00:33:32,150
+it means the price is going down if the candle is
+
+411
+00:33:32,150 --> 00:33:36,070
+white it means the prices were going up الأسعار
+
+412
+00:33:36,070 --> 00:33:41,090
+هتطلع لأعلى and if you observe هنا إذا طلعت و هان
+
+413
+00:33:41,090 --> 00:33:45,370
+observe carefully on the candlethis is a very
+
+414
+00:33:45,370 --> 00:33:51,490
+interesting subject هذا موضوع كتير منطق فانتبهوا
+
+415
+00:33:51,490 --> 00:33:55,870
+just people
+
+416
+00:33:55,870 --> 00:33:58,090
+spend a lot of money on understanding these things
+
+417
+00:33:58,090 --> 00:34:02,790
+so you can take it free here انتوا ماخدينها
+
+418
+00:34:02,790 --> 00:34:09,530
+بالبلاش so if you look at this look at this candle
+
+419
+00:34:09,530 --> 00:34:13,670
+this candle for instance is a big comparing with
+
+420
+00:34:13,670 --> 00:34:18,740
+thisو what is the difference between this candle
+
+421
+00:34:18,740 --> 00:34:27,460
+and this candle؟ why it is big؟ this is the
+
+422
+00:34:27,460 --> 00:34:32,200
+question لأ why it is big؟ why this candle is
+
+423
+00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,960
+comparing with this candle big؟
+
+424
+00:34:38,370 --> 00:34:43,670
+كما قلت عندما تنظر إلى الأسعار يجب أن تنظر إلى
+
+425
+00:34:43,670 --> 00:34:46,650
+اتنين أشياء الأسعار ومتداولات المتداولات
+
+426
+00:34:46,650 --> 00:34:48,270
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+427
+00:34:48,270 --> 00:34:48,710
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+428
+00:34:48,710 --> 00:34:49,670
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+429
+00:34:49,670 --> 00:34:50,690
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+430
+00:34:50,690 --> 00:34:51,410
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+431
+00:34:51,410 --> 00:34:51,930
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+432
+00:34:51,930 --> 00:34:54,950
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+433
+00:34:54,950 --> 00:35:00,270
+المتداولات المتداولات
+
+434
+00:35:00,270 --> 00:35:05,630
+المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات
+
+435
+00:35:05,630 --> 00:35:11,210
+المتداولات المbut here is just only 5 million
+
+436
+00:35:11,210 --> 00:35:15,250
+shops يعني هاي الشمعة كبيرة مقارنة مع هاي الشمعة
+
+437
+00:35:15,250 --> 00:35:18,470
+الصغيرة الشمعة الصغيرة انه عدد الصفقات او عدد
+
+438
+00:35:18,470 --> 00:35:22,470
+الأسهم صغير if you look at this candle for
+
+439
+00:35:22,470 --> 00:35:22,970
+instance
+
+440
+00:35:29,220 --> 00:35:33,880
+this big candle comparing with this if we have two
+
+441
+00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,940
+different candles with different size اذا كان
+
+442
+00:35:36,940 --> 00:35:41,380
+عندنا candles different size it means this candle
+
+443
+00:35:41,380 --> 00:35:46,660
+will push the price down less than this candle
+
+444
+00:35:46,660 --> 00:35:53,190
+يعني زي شحن كبير أمامه سيارة صغيرةبس خبطة هيك
+
+445
+00:35:53,190 --> 00:35:57,450
+بيدعمها لبعيد صح؟ لو احنا جبنا just a small car
+
+446
+00:35:57,450 --> 00:36:00,830
+and want to hit the small car فمش هتدفعها كتير
+
+447
+00:36:00,830 --> 00:36:06,650
+فإذا بنلاحظ احنا الشمعة هذه هتنزل السعر بطريقة
+
+448
+00:36:06,650 --> 00:36:12,090
+أكتر من السعر and vice versa و لو كان العكس صحيح
+
+449
+00:36:12,090 --> 00:36:18,330
+فهدول الناس ال people who believe in the weak form
+
+450
+00:36:18,330 --> 00:36:22,370
+hypothesisfollow the .. the technical analysis
+
+451
+00:36:22,370 --> 00:36:27,850
+الناس اللي بيقاملوا بال .. بال weak form الناس
+
+452
+00:36:27,850 --> 00:36:30,310
+اللي بيقاملوا بال .. بال .. بال weak form
+
+453
+00:36:30,310 --> 00:36:36,630
+hypothesis يعني النصوخ ضعيف هم الناس اللي support
+
+454
+00:36:36,630 --> 00:36:38,410
+the technical analysis اللي هو ال technical
+
+455
+00:36:38,410 --> 00:36:44,670
+analysis اللي هو التحليل الفني okay this is very
+
+456
+00:36:44,670 --> 00:36:47,710
+important things فزي ما حكينا في ال .. في ال weak
+
+457
+00:36:47,710 --> 00:36:52,870
+formand this is mistakenly و هذا .. و هذا بطأ يعني
+
+458
+00:36:52,870 --> 00:36:58,690
+بيحكو but in reality the weak form there is no
+
+459
+00:36:58,690 --> 00:37:01,190
+point in doing trends or technical analysis
+
+460
+00:37:01,190 --> 00:37:06,970
+because the .. the historical prices is already
+
+461
+00:37:06,970 --> 00:37:10,050
+reflected in the future prices so why you are
+
+462
+00:37:10,050 --> 00:37:13,250
+analyzing the .. the previous historical prices
+
+463
+00:37:13,250 --> 00:37:16,530
+إذا هي الأسعار المستقبل already بتعكس ال history
+
+464
+00:37:16,530 --> 00:37:23,570
+فليش احنا نروح نحلل ال historyOkay بقى the .. the
+
+465
+00:37:23,570 --> 00:37:26,310
+problem in the weak form hypothesis المشكلة بال
+
+466
+00:37:26,310 --> 00:37:30,550
+weak form hypothesis is not reflected the
+
+467
+00:37:30,550 --> 00:37:34,930
+fundamental information and the private
+
+468
+00:37:34,930 --> 00:37:40,430
+information يعني خلينا هنلخص لو
+
+469
+00:37:40,430 --> 00:37:46,130
+احنا أخدنا هذا الشكل تبقى بس أخدنا هذا الشكل
+
+470
+00:37:51,270 --> 00:38:01,570
+هذه ضعيفة وهذه أقل قوية وهذه قوية السوق الضعيف هنا
+
+471
+00:38:01,570 --> 00:38:08,610
+هو فقط لأسعار التاريخ وهو
+
+472
+00:38:08,610 --> 00:38:13,930
+ليس موضوع أساسي الأسعار
+
+473
+00:38:13,930 --> 00:38:19,290
+وليس موضوع الشخصيات أو الشخصيات
+
+474
+00:38:23,060 --> 00:38:26,080
+Okay يعني هلأ ال weak form بس بعكس ال historical
+
+475
+00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:32,320
+prices So anyone has fundamental prices he or she
+
+476
+00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:35,460
+can get benefit in the weak form markets يعني أي
+
+477
+00:38:35,460 --> 00:38:39,620
+واحد عنده fundamental .. معلومات fundamental فهو
+
+478
+00:38:39,620 --> 00:38:44,000
+هيستفيد كتير احنا بنجح عند هذا الحد و اللي خائل
+
+479
+00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,160
+جاي بنحكي على semi-strong و بنحكي على strong
+
+480
+00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:47,040
+market hypothesis
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1b98475ffd9dd620dc895bc042328bea08125ec2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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معروفة وبالتالي مباشرة احنا هنعرف ايش الحل هذا الكلام هيصير عند .. عند الطالب بعد ما يحلله هيك اربع خمس ثمارين بيصير مباشرة يعرف انه هذا صح و هذا غلط حتى في الامتحان انه لحاله بيخيم الواحد نفسه انه هذا صح و هذا غلط من شكل الرقم الظاهر تمام؟ okay", "tokens": [3615, 9566, 12610, 1975, 8315, 45030, 28480, 16472, 3224, 23758, 32771, 1211, 9566, 49429, 20328, 5016, 5296, 7649, 3224, 1975, 8315, 45030, 28480, 2423, 5367, 2423, 5367, 20449, 32887, 5172, 3660, 46599, 6027, 2655, 6027, 1829, 3714, 3555, 33599, 25720, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8032, 1863, 3615, 28480, 1975, 1829, 8592, 21542, 1211, 23758, 2423, 28820, 10943, 39896, 9381, 13546, 43242, 4386, 43242, 41950, 6027, 3555, 39182, 19446, 7251, 5016, 1211, 43761, 39896, 4117, 1975, 25513, 3615, 16490, 2304, 3794, 38637, 2304, 9640, 9957, 4724, 1829, 9381, 13546, 3714, 3555, 33599, 25720, 37495, 28480, 16472, 3224, 23758, 20328, 5016, 4032, 23758, 32771, 1211, 9566, 11331, 49975, 8978, 2423, 10943, 2655, 5016, 7649, 16472, 3224, 5296, 5016, 6027, 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"probability": 0.5859375}, {"start": 2135.32, "end": 2135.84, "word": " الموضوع؟", "probability": 0.95810546875}, {"start": 2135.84, "end": 2136.6, "word": " خمسمية", "probability": 0.865234375}, {"start": 2136.6, "end": 2137.3, "word": " دولار", "probability": 0.9943033854166666}, {"start": 2137.3, "end": 2138.64, "word": " شفته", "probability": 0.8238932291666666}, {"start": 2138.64, "end": 2138.74, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.5810546875}, {"start": 2138.74, "end": 2138.9, "word": " bank", "probability": 0.8046875}, {"start": 2138.9, "end": 2139.02, "word": " is", "probability": 0.6083984375}, {"start": 2139.02, "end": 2140.0, "word": " acceptance؟", "probability": 0.769775390625}, {"start": 2140.0, "end": 2140.36, "word": " طيب", "probability": 0.9378255208333334}, {"start": 2140.36, "end": 2141.26, "word": " البنك", "probability": 0.9073893229166666}, {"start": 2141.26, "end": 2141.68, "word": " كمان", "probability": 0.9783528645833334}, {"start": 2141.68, "end": 2142.78, "word": " حط", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 2142.78, "end": 2142.9, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.63818359375}, {"start": 2142.9, "end": 2143.12, "word": " bank", "probability": 0.92236328125}, {"start": 2143.12, "end": 2143.28, "word": " is", "probability": 0.939453125}, {"start": 2143.28, "end": 2143.72, "word": " acceptance", "probability": 0.947265625}, {"start": 2143.72, "end": 2144.12, "word": " عنده", "probability": 0.9853515625}, {"start": 2144.12, "end": 2145.06, "word": " و", "probability": 0.98291015625}, {"start": 2145.06, "end": 2145.36, "word": " راح", "probability": 0.702880859375}, {"start": 2145.36, "end": 2145.82, "word": " محتاج", "probability": 0.8341471354166666}, {"start": 2145.82, "end": 2146.22, "word": " سيولة", "probability": 0.9683837890625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 79, "seek": 217266, "start": 2147.46, "end": 2172.66, "text": "احتاج السيولة مثلا نحكي بواحد تلاتة هيعيد نفس الشغلة مع ناس مع .. مع .. مع أخر okay إذا شفتوا ال bank is acceptance كيف أنه ممكن تكون وسيلة من وسائل الاستثمار طبعا هذا الكلام لعند الف وتسعمية أو نحكي الفين وخمسة كان ينشغل في غزة هذا اسم ال bank is acceptance في حد عنده سؤال فيها؟", "tokens": [995, 33753, 26108, 21136, 1829, 12610, 3660, 50113, 15040, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 4724, 14407, 24401, 6055, 1211, 9307, 3660, 39896, 3615, 25708, 8717, 36178, 25124, 17082, 37977, 20449, 8717, 32277, 20449, 4386, 20449, 4386, 20449, 5551, 34740, 1392, 11933, 15730, 13412, 5172, 2655, 14407, 2423, 3765, 307, 20351, 9122, 33911, 14739, 3224, 3714, 43020, 6055, 30544, 46952, 26895, 3660, 9154, 46952, 16373, 1211, 42963, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 23758, 2423, 28820, 10943, 5296, 3615, 41260, 27188, 34683, 3794, 25957, 10632, 34051, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 27188, 9957, 4032, 9778, 2304, 3794, 3660, 25961, 7251, 1863, 8592, 17082, 1211, 8978, 32771, 11622, 3660, 23758, 24525, 2304, 2423, 3765, 307, 20351, 8978, 11331, 3215, 43242, 3224, 8608, 33604, 6027, 8978, 11296, 22807], 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2151.94, "word": " ناس", "probability": 0.7073974609375}, {"start": 2151.94, "end": 2152.26, "word": " مع", "probability": 0.498046875}, {"start": 2152.26, "end": 2152.26, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.64501953125}, {"start": 2152.26, "end": 2152.9, "word": " مع", "probability": 0.904296875}, {"start": 2152.9, "end": 2152.9, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.640625}, {"start": 2152.9, "end": 2153.48, "word": " مع", "probability": 0.8896484375}, {"start": 2153.48, "end": 2153.78, "word": " أخر", "probability": 0.77734375}, {"start": 2153.78, "end": 2154.74, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.5419921875}, {"start": 2154.74, "end": 2155.28, "word": " إذا", "probability": 0.683837890625}, {"start": 2155.28, "end": 2155.58, "word": " شفتوا", "probability": 0.8092041015625}, {"start": 2155.58, "end": 2155.68, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9228515625}, {"start": 2155.68, "end": 2155.9, "word": " bank", "probability": 0.72412109375}, {"start": 2155.9, "end": 2156.04, "word": " is", "probability": 0.59423828125}, {"start": 2156.04, "end": 2156.5, "word": " acceptance", "probability": 0.93359375}, {"start": 2156.5, "end": 2156.86, "word": " كيف", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 2156.86, "end": 2157.1, "word": " أنه", "probability": 0.7685546875}, {"start": 2157.1, "end": 2157.3, "word": " ممكن", "probability": 0.989013671875}, {"start": 2157.3, "end": 2157.72, "word": " تكون", "probability": 0.96044921875}, {"start": 2157.72, "end": 2158.36, "word": " وسيلة", "probability": 0.95654296875}, {"start": 2158.36, "end": 2158.48, "word": " من", "probability": 0.99169921875}, {"start": 2158.48, "end": 2158.8, "word": " وسائل", "probability": 0.9568684895833334}, {"start": 2158.8, "end": 2159.34, "word": " الاستثمار", "probability": 0.91083984375}, {"start": 2159.34, "end": 2160.22, "word": " طبعا", "probability": 0.9642333984375}, {"start": 2160.22, "end": 2160.52, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.88134765625}, {"start": 2160.52, "end": 2161.04, "word": " الكلام", "probability": 0.9601236979166666}, {"start": 2161.04, "end": 2162.14, "word": " لعند", "probability": 0.9153645833333334}, {"start": 2162.14, "end": 2163.9, "word": " الف", "probability": 0.708984375}, {"start": 2163.9, "end": 2165.08, "word": " وتسعمية", "probability": 0.794189453125}, {"start": 2165.08, "end": 2165.36, "word": " أو", "probability": 0.5654296875}, {"start": 2165.36, "end": 2165.62, "word": " نحكي", "probability": 0.9617919921875}, {"start": 2165.62, "end": 2165.88, "word": " الفين", "probability": 0.827392578125}, {"start": 2165.88, "end": 2166.22, "word": " وخمسة", "probability": 0.9029296875}, {"start": 2166.22, "end": 2166.5, "word": " كان", "probability": 0.9892578125}, {"start": 2166.5, "end": 2166.96, "word": " ينشغل", "probability": 0.89501953125}, {"start": 2166.96, "end": 2167.06, "word": " في", "probability": 0.96142578125}, {"start": 2167.06, "end": 2168.58, "word": " غزة", "probability": 0.900390625}, {"start": 2168.58, "end": 2169.0, "word": " هذا", 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dollar", "tokens": [1863, 7435, 5172, 43242, 23758, 21542, 3215, 1392, 6225, 8592, 7649, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 9673, 25720, 27188, 9307, 3660, 18871, 2423, 14206, 7241], "avg_logprob": -0.19703125476837158, "compression_ratio": 1.0769230769230769, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2174.65, "end": 2175.05, "word": "نجف", "probability": 0.8346354166666666}, {"start": 2175.05, "end": 2175.19, "word": " عند", "probability": 0.98486328125}, {"start": 2175.19, "end": 2175.35, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.9677734375}, {"start": 2175.35, "end": 2175.69, "word": " الحد", "probability": 0.984619140625}, {"start": 2175.69, "end": 2176.61, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.254638671875}, {"start": 2176.61, "end": 2176.97, "word": " عشان", "probability": 0.9239908854166666}, {"start": 2176.97, "end": 2177.21, "word": " نحكي", "probability": 0.9674072265625}, {"start": 2177.21, "end": 2177.39, "word": " المرة", "probability": 0.9462890625}, {"start": 2177.39, "end": 2177.71, "word": " الفاتة", "probability": 0.709228515625}, {"start": 2177.71, "end": 2177.85, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.93798828125}, {"start": 2177.85, "end": 2177.89, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.6728515625}, {"start": 2177.89, "end": 2178.05, "word": " euro", "probability": 0.5244140625}, {"start": 2178.05, "end": 2178.27, "word": " dollar", "probability": 0.87060546875}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2179.14625, "duration_after_vad": 2050.675624999993}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..107e7267d1b65b330e9f40466121f93796f0eeba
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1640 @@
+1
+00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:25,760
+طب احنا اليوم المحاضرة لها علاقة في ال .. اللي
+
+2
+00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,220
+احنا حكيناها المرة الفاتة بموضوع ال treasure bills
+
+3
+00:00:29,220 --> 00:00:34,160
+and how we convert the discount rates into prices
+
+4
+00:00:34,160 --> 00:00:39,250
+لأنه في ال financial markets مابيعرضوش الأسعارas
+
+5
+00:00:39,250 --> 00:00:43,750
+you know يعني مثلا سعر ألف دولار ألفين دولار هذا
+
+6
+00:00:43,750 --> 00:00:47,690
+مابيعودوهاش وكماش و أما نحكي عن ال bonds prices
+
+7
+00:00:47,690 --> 00:00:51,490
+هنجد تسعير ال prices بطريقة بتختلف عن اللي إحنا
+
+8
+00:00:51,490 --> 00:00:56,850
+بنعرفها فإحنا مهمتنا لإنه how to change the
+
+9
+00:00:56,850 --> 00:01:03,050
+financial market pricesOkay into prices that we
+
+10
+00:01:03,050 --> 00:01:06,430
+understand الأسعار احنا بنفهمها زي ما احنا حكينا
+
+11
+00:01:06,430 --> 00:01:08,790
+المرة الفاتة انه لو طلع .. طلعنا على ال treasury
+
+12
+00:01:08,790 --> 00:01:12,970
+bills treasury bills الموجودة هنا نكبرها شوية طبعا
+
+13
+00:01:12,970 --> 00:01:20,470
+لو طلعنا عليهم الأسعار في
+
+14
+00:01:20,470 --> 00:01:25,970
+عند ال maturity okay و عند ال maturity days to
+
+15
+00:01:25,970 --> 00:01:28,110
+maturity اللي هو تمانية يعني ايش تمانية تماني
+
+16
+00:01:28,110 --> 00:01:34,560
+الأيام okayو عندنا ال bid 0055 خدوا بالك this is
+
+17
+00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,880
+discount what it means discount خاصة هذه كنسمة
+
+18
+00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:43,340
+مقوية ادروا بالكم as a percentage مش هنعيد هذا
+
+19
+00:01:43,340 --> 00:01:45,280
+الكلام بالامتحان لما يصير عندكم امتحان انا مش
+
+20
+00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,700
+هحكيلكوا كلام هذا because you already know this
+
+21
+00:01:47,700 --> 00:01:53,840
+لأن انتوا اصلا بتعرفوا الكلام هذا ال ask 005
+
+22
+00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:59,000
+unchanged و ال 051 اللي هو ask killedyou can do
+
+23
+00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:03,040
+the reverse يعني ممكن انا ماعطيكم مش ارقام هان و
+
+24
+00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,340
+بس اعطيكوا ال asking و انتوا ترجعوا برجوه هناخد
+
+25
+00:02:06,340 --> 00:02:13,840
+سؤال اخر كيف نرجع برجوه okay فلنحسب ال 0055 نحولها
+
+26
+00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:18,860
+ل price نحولها لسعر و هذا المفروض كان معاكم واجب
+
+27
+00:02:18,860 --> 00:02:22,940
+لو حد حل خطأ مش مشكلة أجيبني الواجب على الأقل انه
+
+28
+00:02:22,940 --> 00:02:28,550
+في محاولةلكن الغلط انه احنا مانجيش بالمرة او
+
+29
+00:02:28,550 --> 00:02:32,810
+مانجيش معنى الواجب طبعا بعد ما انا اعطيتك الواجب
+
+30
+00:02:32,810 --> 00:02:36,370
+هحل جزء منه بحيث انه تتأكدوا انه كيف الطريقة الصح
+
+31
+00:02:36,370 --> 00:02:42,410
+للحل طبعا طيب انا زي ما انتوا شايفين اللي هو zero
+
+32
+00:02:42,410 --> 00:02:47,150
+five five نحولها لاش ل price طبعا لو احنا روحنا
+
+33
+00:02:47,150 --> 00:02:49,930
+على ال excel sheets هاي ال bit وحكينا zero
+
+34
+00:02:56,380 --> 00:03:02,200
+055 مظبوط طبعا في ال X الكتابها point 06 لأنه لازم
+
+35
+00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:08,480
+احنا نعمل format لل cell عشان تظهر بدل ال ال حاسب
+
+36
+00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:12,380
+يعني لإنه مش هتشوفوا ال ال حاسب هتشوفوا هيك okay
+
+37
+00:03:12,380 --> 00:03:20,480
+هاي زي ما تشايفين 055 و هاي 055 طيب عندي إيش
+
+38
+00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,140
+معلومات في عندي اللي هو maturity days to maturity
+
+39
+00:03:23,140 --> 00:03:27,860
+مظبوط اللي هو daysto maturity، عدد الأيام، كام ال
+
+40
+00:03:27,860 --> 00:03:33,220
+days to maturity؟ اللي هو تمانية، هي تمانية، تمان؟
+
+41
+00:03:33,220 --> 00:03:38,820
+إيش معلومات بالزمن غير هيك؟ بالحل؟ ال bar value،
+
+42
+00:03:38,820 --> 00:03:45,800
+okay، هي ال bar value حكينا ال bar value كام؟عشرة
+
+43
+00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:49,740
+ألف هاي عشرة ألف طبعا أساس أنه انت مرات you
+
+44
+00:03:49,740 --> 00:03:54,580
+confuse مرات بيصير الواحد يعد أ صفر صفرين تلاتة
+
+45
+00:03:54,580 --> 00:03:58,700
+أربعة هو حط صفر زيادة حتى في الأقل الحاسبة فتعملوا
+
+46
+00:03:58,700 --> 00:04:02,020
+programming للأ حاسبة تعملكوا فواصل في ال Excel
+
+47
+00:04:02,020 --> 00:04:06,200
+كيف نعملها فواصل نعمل format cell okay نحط ال
+
+48
+00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:12,520
+number ونحط ال .. اللي هو ال .. ال separator ونحط
+
+49
+00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:18,690
+okay فتطلعه مائة ألفwhich is wrong وهذا كلام نفس
+
+50
+00:04:18,690 --> 00:04:20,970
+ال function بتشتغل عندكم على الأقل حاسبة فأحد
+
+51
+00:04:20,970 --> 00:04:25,810
+الطالبات حكتلي انه في غلط في الأقل حاسبة فالغلط مش
+
+52
+00:04:25,810 --> 00:04:29,110
+في الأقل حاسبة الغلط how to use the calculator
+
+53
+00:04:29,110 --> 00:04:35,170
+okay so be careful on this فهذه عشرة حتى لو أنا
+
+54
+00:04:35,170 --> 00:04:41,300
+غلطت الأقل حاسبة هتصلحني الف لأ بس احنا مش الفعشرة
+
+55
+00:04:41,300 --> 00:04:46,440
+تلاف انا بالعمضان بغلط عساس اورجيكم ال options لو
+
+56
+00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:52,240
+احنا غلطنا شو ال result هتصير okay هاي عشرة تلاف
+
+57
+00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:59,620
+هاي البيانات واضحة في عند ال bid خمسة خدوا بأكم
+
+58
+00:04:59,620 --> 00:05:05,490
+خمسة في الميةفي المية لأن هذي as a percentage كتوي
+
+59
+00:05:05,490 --> 00:05:10,030
+زي ما كتبتلكم وعنا ال date و maturity تمان أيام و
+
+60
+00:05:10,030 --> 00:05:13,970
+ال bar value طيب ال date و ال maturity نبدأ بأول
+
+61
+00:05:13,970 --> 00:05:18,270
+واحدة اللي هو ال bid ال bid المفروض نقسمه على مية
+
+62
+00:05:18,270 --> 00:05:25,670
+تقسم مية خلصت طبعا this is confusing بس بنظبطها
+
+63
+00:05:36,460 --> 00:05:38,960
+لأ احنا مابنسألك .. احنا عندك .. هذا كله على
+
+64
+00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:45,580
+القالة الحاسبة طيب
+
+65
+00:05:45,580 --> 00:05:49,260
+تبع خطوة خطوة معايا بالقالة الحاسبة افتح القالة
+
+66
+00:05:49,260 --> 00:05:52,700
+الحاسبة تبعتك خطوة خطوة كل البنات افتحوا خطوة خطوة
+
+67
+00:05:52,700 --> 00:05:54,760
+القالة الحاسبة واتبعوا الخطوات اللي أنا بشتغل
+
+68
+00:05:54,760 --> 00:06:01,240
+عليها عشان تكتشفي وين الغلط اللي عندك اه
+
+69
+00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:08,990
+ليش مقسمة عالمية؟لأن هذه يا بنات لأن هذه الخمسة في
+
+70
+00:06:08,990 --> 00:06:12,050
+المية شايفينها ال points 0.055 انا حكيت this is
+
+71
+00:06:12,050 --> 00:06:17,250
+discount this is discount rate نسبة هذه يعني zero
+
+72
+00:06:17,250 --> 00:06:24,530
+five five percent في المية فاهمتي ليش هذا الكلام
+
+73
+00:06:24,530 --> 00:06:28,570
+توقف الذاكرين لما حاططكم percent هيك هذه percent
+
+74
+00:06:28,570 --> 00:06:34,310
+بس في الأسواق المالية يا بنات عشان كل digitكل
+
+75
+00:06:34,310 --> 00:06:38,910
+digit معنيين ان هم مايظهروش أرقام كتير فيحافظوا
+
+76
+00:06:38,910 --> 00:06:42,590
+على أقل digits ممكن فهم ال investors they know
+
+77
+00:06:42,590 --> 00:06:46,770
+this percent المستثمرين بيعرفوا ان this is percent
+
+78
+00:06:46,770 --> 00:06:52,530
+فاهمين عليها؟ ف no need for this فبقولك ان احنا
+
+79
+00:06:52,530 --> 00:06:57,610
+مابلزمناش هذا خلاص لأن ال investors عارفين 0.55%
+
+80
+00:06:59,580 --> 00:07:02,620
+فماحنا مش حاجة .. مافي حاجة نروح نكتب خناة كتير
+
+81
+00:07:02,620 --> 00:07:06,720
+لإن كما شويحة نيجي بال bonds في طريقة لكتابة ال ..
+
+82
+00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,240
+ال .. ال price بتختلف عن طريقة كتابة ال treasure
+
+83
+00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:12,260
+bills فعشان هيك انت لما تشوفوا الجزيرة مثلا تفتحوا
+
+84
+00:07:12,260 --> 00:07:15,580
+الجزيرة أو تفتحوا ال CNBC ولا تفتحوا ال BBC ولا
+
+85
+00:07:15,580 --> 00:07:18,580
+تفتحوا ال .. ال channels هذه بتشوفوا الأرقام
+
+86
+00:07:18,580 --> 00:07:22,990
+الموجودة مش أرقام ان الناس هت .. هتفهمها بسرعةيعني
+
+87
+00:07:22,990 --> 00:07:26,610
+مثلا ال index انخفض 200 نقطة و ارتفع 300 نقطة what
+
+88
+00:07:26,610 --> 00:07:30,150
+it means ال investors they know what it means 200
+
+89
+00:07:30,150 --> 00:07:34,010
+points and 300 points and they convert it into
+
+90
+00:07:34,010 --> 00:07:38,350
+their minds into prices هذه 300 نقطة و 200 نقطة
+
+91
+00:07:38,350 --> 00:07:45,450
+بتتحول ثراثهم في مخهم لأسعار فبعد فترة يصير عندكم
+
+92
+00:07:45,450 --> 00:07:49,490
+training يصير المخ على طول يعرف ان ال 0.55 تتساوي
+
+93
+00:07:49,490 --> 00:07:54,620
+كذاو 033 بتساوي كذا فبصير على طول لاحظته انا لما
+
+94
+00:07:54,620 --> 00:07:58,640
+كنت ا check the assignment ماقرأش اشوف على طول
+
+95
+00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:03,200
+اقولها غلط صح بدون ما اقرأ لإنه مجرد ما اشوف الرقم
+
+96
+00:08:04,090 --> 00:08:07,410
+عطول انا بعرف انه هذا غلط ولا صح لانه انا بعرف ال
+
+97
+00:08:07,410 --> 00:08:10,090
+equation ال equation معروفة وبالتالي مباشرة احنا
+
+98
+00:08:10,090 --> 00:08:14,290
+هنعرف ايش الحل هذا الكلام هيصير عند .. عند الطالب
+
+99
+00:08:14,290 --> 00:08:18,950
+بعد ما يحلله هيك اربع خمس ثمارين بيصير مباشرة يعرف
+
+100
+00:08:18,950 --> 00:08:22,910
+انه هذا صح و هذا غلط حتى في الامتحان انه لحاله
+
+101
+00:08:22,910 --> 00:08:26,150
+بيخيم الواحد نفسه انه هذا صح و هذا غلط من شكل
+
+102
+00:08:26,150 --> 00:08:30,990
+الرقم الظاهر تمام؟ okay
+
+103
+00:08:32,710 --> 00:08:38,090
+بنكمل 055 عرفنا ليش زي ما سألت انه ليش بنقسمها على
+
+104
+00:08:38,090 --> 00:08:50,730
+100 وهي قسمناها على 100، مظبوط؟
+
+105
+00:08:50,730 --> 00:08:55,190
+ايه،
+
+106
+00:08:55,190 --> 00:09:00,090
+يلا قبلوا بالأقل الحسبة 055 تقسيم 100، طلعت معاكم
+
+107
+00:09:00,090 --> 00:09:05,280
+إجابة؟طلعت نفس الإجابة هذه؟ مين ما طلعتش عنده
+
+108
+00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,940
+الإجابة هذه؟
+
+109
+00:09:08,940 --> 00:09:15,260
+3 0 5 5 تقسيم
+
+110
+00:09:15,260 --> 00:09:21,100
+100 صح في حد ما طلعتش معاه الإجابة هذه؟ طب خلصنا،
+
+111
+00:09:21,100 --> 00:09:27,180
+هلأ نيجي لل 8 نحكي تساوي التمانية تقسيم 360
+
+112
+00:09:36,450 --> 00:09:44,830
+لحظة طب تمانية تقسيم قبل
+
+113
+00:09:44,830 --> 00:09:48,790
+القانون لازم نخلص العمليات تمانية اقسموا تمانية
+
+114
+00:09:48,790 --> 00:09:55,490
+تقسيم تلاتمية وستين في حد ماعرفش اعملها هذه طب وين
+
+115
+00:09:55,490 --> 00:10:03,200
+المشكلة هذه خلصناها وهذه خلصناهاعشان نطبق القانون
+
+116
+00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:13,000
+يعني لازم هدول نخلصهم عشان نطبق القانون okay ايش
+
+117
+00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:18,440
+اللي ماصبوطش تمانية
+
+118
+00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:22,360
+تخسيم انه
+
+119
+00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:28,160
+هذه zero five five تخسيم مية كم طلع عندك صفر عشان
+
+120
+00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:33,630
+اشتغل الفرقيا انتبه يعني طلع غلط عارفة إيش معنى
+
+121
+00:10:33,630 --> 00:10:41,530
+الكلام هذا؟ انتبه يا بنات مافيش مشكلة هتا هلا
+
+122
+00:10:41,530 --> 00:10:48,170
+هيطلع الإجابة إذا كان الرقم هيك مثلا كان الرقم هيك
+
+123
+00:10:48,170 --> 00:10:52,990
+في بعض آلات حاسبة مابتظهرش هذا الرقم بالشكل هذا
+
+124
+00:10:52,990 --> 00:10:58,800
+فبتروحش بتسوي الآل حاسبة بتروحأكم .. أكم خانة
+
+125
+00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:02,260
+عندنا واحدة اتنين تلاتة أربعة خمسة بتعمل خمسة و نص
+
+126
+00:11:02,260 --> 00:11:06,620
+قص عشرة ناقص واحدة اتنين تلاتة أربعة خمس خانات قص
+
+127
+00:11:06,620 --> 00:11:10,860
+ناقص خمسة لأنه
+
+128
+00:11:10,860 --> 00:11:17,860
+أخدنا .. أخدنا الخانة لهيك أنا زيدت سفر okay لأ
+
+129
+00:11:17,860 --> 00:11:23,960
+عدوا أكم واحد اتنين تلاتة أربعة و هي الخمسةطبعا
+
+130
+00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,980
+فهي خمسة و نص و هاي النص اللي بوراها بتصير عشرة أس
+
+131
+00:11:27,980 --> 00:11:33,820
+ناقص خمسة طيب أس ثالث باربعة بنعملها أس ثالث
+
+132
+00:11:33,820 --> 00:11:38,900
+باربعة سفر سفر سفر خمسة خمسة عد الأكم سفر هان
+
+133
+00:11:38,900 --> 00:11:44,000
+أربعة أكم سفر هان تلاتة و بتحولها خمسة و نص أس
+
+134
+00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:50,960
+ناقص أربعة تعلمت كواب مرة لازم تكون دورة في ال ..
+
+135
+00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:56,930
+في القادة الحاسفة كواب مرةلو حكيت فاصة صفر صفر صفر
+
+136
+00:11:56,930 --> 00:12:01,630
+صفر صفر عدوهم
+
+137
+00:12:01,630 --> 00:12:08,410
+كيف الأقل حاسبة هتكتبهم؟ لأ الأخت اللي .. اللي
+
+138
+00:12:08,410 --> 00:12:14,350
+قالت غلط فضلك الأقل حاسبة كيف هتكتبها؟ أربع أربع
+
+139
+00:12:14,350 --> 00:12:17,910
+.. لأنه هذا في الامتحان مافيش إمكانية تحكي للأقل
+
+140
+00:12:17,910 --> 00:12:22,210
+حاسبة غلط يا أما أنت تستخدميش الأقل حاسبة صح يا
+
+141
+00:12:22,210 --> 00:12:26,910
+أما أنت بتطبيق غلطتفضلي هذا الرقم لما تكتبيه على
+
+142
+00:12:26,910 --> 00:12:30,690
+الآلة الحاسبة ..الآلة الحاسبة كيف بتقرأه؟ فهمناك
+
+143
+00:12:30,690 --> 00:12:36,870
+توقف .. يلا انت نفسك هيقول ان الآلة مظبوط ممكن
+
+144
+00:12:36,870 --> 00:12:39,830
+تعمل درر أربعة أو درر سن سابعة أو درر .. بس مش غلط
+
+145
+00:12:39,830 --> 00:12:42,670
+.. هذا صح .. ده جوا صح بس أنا مش عارف الانتحار ..
+
+146
+00:12:42,670 --> 00:12:45,870
+اه .. انا طب اكيد .. انا خاليك يعنى .. كيف الآلة
+
+147
+00:12:45,870 --> 00:12:50,190
+الحاسبة هتكتبها هذا؟ عشر أسنان .. خلقي هي لحالها
+
+148
+00:12:50,190 --> 00:12:57,030
+هتعرفOkay هلا مش عارفة إيش راح تسوي هلا عندنا واحد
+
+149
+00:12:57,030 --> 00:13:01,670
+اتنين عدّي معايا واحد اتنين تلاتة اربع خمسة ستة
+
+150
+00:13:01,670 --> 00:13:06,810
+ولمّا ايه نتيجة على الرقم ال digit الصحيح سبعة
+
+151
+00:13:06,810 --> 00:13:11,930
+فبيجي بحكي اربعة point تلاتة اص عشرة ماخص سبعة
+
+152
+00:13:11,930 --> 00:13:16,610
+فهمتي طبعا
+
+153
+00:13:16,610 --> 00:13:22,410
+ليش مش خلط يعني اه اه كمان مثال اه وضحت
+
+154
+00:13:24,910 --> 00:13:29,810
+واضحط فالمشكلة الأخطاء بتيجي مش من التطبيق الأخطاء
+
+155
+00:13:29,810 --> 00:13:38,330
+بتيجي من عدم استخدام الآلة الحاسبة بشكل صحيح الكل
+
+156
+00:13:38,330 --> 00:13:45,290
+قسم 8 على 360 بطلع اللي هو ايش point zero two two
+
+157
+00:13:45,290 --> 00:13:49,150
+two two two rounding بطلع هذا الرقم تمانية ستة
+
+158
+00:13:49,150 --> 00:13:49,590
+وتلاتين
+
+159
+00:13:52,680 --> 00:13:57,660
+انطبخ القانون يلا ذكروني ايش القانون واحد واحدة
+
+160
+00:13:57,660 --> 00:14:01,140
+واحدة
+
+161
+00:14:01,140 --> 00:14:10,900
+ال bar value ضرب واحد واحد معقص ال discount ضرب ال
+
+162
+00:14:10,900 --> 00:14:18,680
+maturity اصلا حاسبين احنا صح طيب بدنا نجرب اخدوا
+
+163
+00:14:18,680 --> 00:14:24,520
+بالكمأنا يمكن أعمل اشي غلط عساس ان انتوا ايش تنتبه
+
+164
+00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:28,100
+وين ممكن يصير الأخطاء احتمالات الأخطاء فيها انطبخ
+
+165
+00:14:28,100 --> 00:14:33,660
+المعادلة تساوي العشر تلاف هي العشر تلاف طبقوا
+
+166
+00:14:33,660 --> 00:14:39,700
+المعادلة انتوا على الأقل حاسب عشر تلاف ضرب الواحد
+
+167
+00:14:39,700 --> 00:14:45,230
+ناقص ال D ال ايش ال discountالـ discount اللي هو
+
+168
+00:14:45,230 --> 00:14:53,070
+حكينا zero zero zero five مظبوط ضرب اللي هو point
+
+169
+00:14:53,070 --> 00:14:59,030
+two two two two مظبوط هلأ هذه في احتمالات كبيرة
+
+170
+00:14:59,030 --> 00:15:02,690
+غلط فيها في
+
+171
+00:15:02,690 --> 00:15:05,170
+احتمالات كبيرة غلط فيها خاصة ان انتوا بتستخدموا
+
+172
+00:15:05,170 --> 00:15:08,530
+آلات حاسبة فيه priorities للأقواص فإذا أنا مااخدتش
+
+173
+00:15:08,530 --> 00:15:11,830
+بعين الاعتبار priorities للأقواص هيكون عندى حل غلط
+
+174
+00:15:11,830 --> 00:15:19,610
+طيببنقول هان ضرب انتبهوا معايا و راكزوا معايا و
+
+175
+00:15:19,610 --> 00:15:26,910
+تشوفوا احتمالات الخطأ وين صير العشر تلاف ضرب واحد
+
+176
+00:15:26,910 --> 00:15:32,510
+ناقص هذه
+
+177
+00:15:32,510 --> 00:15:35,230
+اللي هو البد ضرب
+
+178
+00:15:47,450 --> 00:15:53,430
+إيش رأيكم؟ مين
+
+179
+00:15:53,430 --> 00:16:01,470
+طلع عنده جواب زي هيك؟ مين
+
+180
+00:16:01,470 --> 00:16:05,770
+عنده طلع جواب زي هيك؟ okay مين ما طلعش عنده
+
+181
+00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:09,610
+الجواب؟ هورجيكوا إحتمالات إنه الجواب بيطلع غلط
+
+182
+00:16:09,610 --> 00:16:11,050
+طلعوا كيف؟
+
+183
+00:16:15,170 --> 00:16:24,770
+مين عنده طلع جواب زي هيك؟ طيب مين طلع عنده جواب زي
+
+184
+00:16:24,770 --> 00:16:30,610
+هيك؟ زي هيك؟ ايوة انا بدأ ارجعك كل احتمالات الخطأ
+
+185
+00:16:30,610 --> 00:16:36,030
+اللي ممكن تخطق فيها الاول
+
+186
+00:16:36,030 --> 00:16:40,910
+واحدة صح طيب هلأ هذي ايش معناه كلمة انه اللي حل
+
+187
+00:16:40,910 --> 00:16:44,190
+هيك نسي يحط الماقص اللي هو واحد ماقص
+
+188
+00:16:46,690 --> 00:17:05,230
+زي هيك مستحيل ماتحققليش حطينها okay
+
+189
+00:17:05,230 --> 00:17:10,030
+هلأ
+
+190
+00:17:10,030 --> 00:17:16,980
+بنات انتبهوا بس معايا لحظةكل .. في عندنا إحنا آلات
+
+191
+00:17:16,980 --> 00:17:24,020
+حاسبة .. في .. كل آلة حاسبة إلها شغلها الخاص فأنا
+
+192
+00:17:24,020 --> 00:17:26,940
+بأنصح شغلك أنه طالما أنتوا جايبين آلة حاسبة معاكم
+
+193
+00:17:26,940 --> 00:17:30,400
+الآن اتأكدوا أنه الجواب طلع صح ليش؟ لأنه في آلات
+
+194
+00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:34,660
+حاسبة بتعملش priorities مثلا لأشياء معينة وبالتالي
+
+195
+00:17:34,660 --> 00:17:39,640
+اتأكدوا أن الجواب طلع معاكم بهذا الشكل طيب، هلأ لو
+
+196
+00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:48,530
+إحنا بدنا نجرب شغلة تانيةلو نجرب مثلا ناخد ال 0.5
+
+197
+00:17:48,530 --> 00:17:56,770
+احنا أخدنا 0.55 نجرب اللي جانبه 0.05 يعني
+
+198
+00:17:56,770 --> 00:18:06,710
+نغير ل 0.58 طيب 0.58 okay
+
+199
+00:18:06,710 --> 00:18:09,970
+نغير
+
+200
+00:18:09,970 --> 00:18:12,190
+ل 0.43
+
+201
+00:18:16,740 --> 00:18:19,680
+نغير مثلا عندكم .. هاي الموجود .. هذا الموجود
+
+202
+00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:27,060
+ينقلنا .. سفر تلاتة خمسة مظبوط؟
+
+203
+00:18:27,060 --> 00:18:31,360
+طلع عندك حق .. صح؟ بس خدوا بقالكوا التقريب يعني
+
+204
+00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:34,440
+اللي هيفرق بس التقريب هنا اللي هي ممكن تسيطر ..
+
+205
+00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:38,640
+نغيّر التاريخ أه بنا نغيّر التاريخ صح؟ هنغيّر
+
+206
+00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,820
+التاريخ التاريخ
+
+207
+00:18:42,820 --> 00:18:48,310
+كام تبع السفر تلاتة خمسة؟ أربع و أربعينطلع مظبوط؟
+
+208
+00:18:48,310 --> 00:18:56,350
+طلعوا عليها هاي تاعة ال 035 اللي هي هذه ال 035 هي
+
+209
+00:18:56,350 --> 00:19:02,730
+هذه اللي عندنا 44 يوم تمام؟ الجواب تبعها زي ما
+
+210
+00:19:02,730 --> 00:19:11,530
+أنتوا شايفين 9999.57 مظبوط؟ okay طب حلوا ليه حاجة
+
+211
+00:19:11,530 --> 00:19:14,570
+دي و أنا هشوف في ال .. إذا في حد عنده خطأ في
+
+212
+00:19:14,570 --> 00:19:22,170
+الحاسوب هشوف وين بغلطاللي هو أخر واحدة اللي هو
+
+213
+00:19:22,170 --> 00:19:30,010
+0035 هذي هعلمكم إياها يلا
+
+214
+00:19:30,010 --> 00:19:33,290
+بسرعة عشان أجي أشوف ال .. إذا في حد عنده خطأ في
+
+215
+00:19:33,290 --> 00:19:34,870
+الأقل حاسب بس ييجي وينديني okay
+
+216
+00:19:42,390 --> 00:19:47,310
+أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و
+
+217
+00:19:47,310 --> 00:19:50,070
+أربعة و أربعة
+
+218
+00:20:07,310 --> 00:20:14,730
+براكو براكو براكو
+
+219
+00:20:14,730 --> 00:20:20,470
+براكو براكو
+
+220
+00:20:20,470 --> 00:20:23,490
+براكو براكو
+
+221
+00:20:38,120 --> 00:20:43,390
+ماشي الحارة يا بناتعن أفضل يعني البنات اللي
+
+222
+00:20:43,390 --> 00:20:47,110
+ماشوفتش حلهم هم المش جايين .. مش جايبين آلة حاسبة
+
+223
+00:20:47,110 --> 00:20:51,750
+البنات اللي .. اللي ورجولي شغلهم تقريبا تسعة و
+
+224
+00:20:51,750 --> 00:20:54,310
+تسعين في المية حلهم صح تسعة و تسعين في المية من
+
+225
+00:20:54,310 --> 00:20:58,950
+اللي شوفتم صح، تمام؟ يعني بس يمكن واحدة بس برضه
+
+226
+00:20:58,950 --> 00:21:03,410
+عاودت و .. و الحل كان صح، تمام يا بنات؟ بالنسبة
+
+227
+00:21:03,410 --> 00:21:08,310
+للمش جايين .. جايبين آلة الحاسبة تبعتهمرجاء يعني
+
+228
+00:21:08,310 --> 00:21:11,610
+يتحمل يحطوا الحاسب جانب ال mobile عشان ما يتذكروش
+
+229
+00:21:11,610 --> 00:21:18,430
+ماشي الحال طيب حكينا
+
+230
+00:21:18,430 --> 00:21:22,070
+عن ال treasury bills نحكي على certificate of
+
+231
+00:21:22,070 --> 00:21:34,370
+deposits certificate
+
+232
+00:21:34,370 --> 00:21:43,710
+of deposits اللي هو شهادات الإدعىشهادات إيداع شو
+
+233
+00:21:43,710 --> 00:21:46,210
+الفرق بين ال certificates of deposits و الوداقة
+
+234
+00:21:46,210 --> 00:21:49,970
+العادية ال deposits إنه إحنا بنحط وديعة في ال bank
+
+235
+00:21:49,970 --> 00:21:55,530
+إلها وقت و فيه certificate فيها فيها شهادة بنعطيها
+
+236
+00:21:55,530 --> 00:21:59,650
+and this certificate of deposits is listed in the
+
+237
+00:21:59,650 --> 00:22:01,570
+financial market و كمان بتكون مدرجة في السوق
+
+238
+00:22:01,570 --> 00:22:06,750
+الماليفالورقة هذه اللي معناها ال certificate of
+
+239
+00:22:06,750 --> 00:22:10,830
+deposit we can sell this ممكن نبيعها in the
+
+240
+00:22:10,830 --> 00:22:13,750
+financial markets يعني ممكن نروح على السوق المالي
+
+241
+00:22:13,750 --> 00:22:17,910
+و نبيع الورقة اللي هي شهادة إيداع طب شو المقابل؟
+
+242
+00:22:17,910 --> 00:22:21,630
+المقابل ال certificate of deposit احنا نوضع مثلا
+
+243
+00:22:21,630 --> 00:22:28,490
+الف دولار أو مضاعفاتهم و بناخد فوائد عليهمإذا احنا
+
+244
+00:22:28,490 --> 00:22:32,310
+بنبيعه okay فطالما احنا حاملين الورقة هذه اللي هو
+
+245
+00:22:32,310 --> 00:22:34,910
+certificate of deposits معناه كلها بناخد عليها
+
+246
+00:22:34,910 --> 00:22:38,010
+فوائد طالما احنا حاملين هذه الورقة وغالبا بتكون
+
+247
+00:22:38,010 --> 00:22:42,670
+short term ال risk تبعها is greater than the
+
+248
+00:22:42,670 --> 00:22:47,070
+treasury bills أكثر من .. شوية مش كتيرis greater
+
+249
+00:22:47,070 --> 00:22:50,750
+than the treasury bills تمام؟ هذه وضحة certificate
+
+250
+00:22:50,750 --> 00:22:53,690
+of deposits طبعا ال certificates of deposits بي ..
+
+251
+00:22:53,690 --> 00:22:58,110
+بي .. بيعملهاش او بيصدرهاش الا بنوك certified
+
+252
+00:22:58,110 --> 00:23:02,970
+banks او highly qualified bank البنوك اللي ال ..
+
+253
+00:23:02,970 --> 00:23:05,930
+الملاءة الاقتمالية تبعتهم عالية بيقدروا يصدروا
+
+254
+00:23:05,930 --> 00:23:09,770
+اللي هو شهادات الإيداع طيب ال commercial papers في
+
+255
+00:23:09,770 --> 00:23:14,010
+حد يعرف ال commercial papers الأوراخ التجارية كيف
+
+256
+00:23:14,010 --> 00:23:15,430
+هذه فكرة الأوراخ التجارية؟
+
+257
+00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:25,200
+يلا مين قرأ عن أوراق تجارية؟ زي الكمبيلات .. okay
+
+258
+00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:33,440
+الشركات
+
+259
+00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,560
+الكبيرة .. اتفضلي
+
+260
+00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:58,880
+مثلا زي .. زي ما حكت أنه أنا لما بدي أصدر
+
+261
+00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:04,760
+commercial favors مثلا أنا محتاج أن أطلع حالي على
+
+262
+00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:11,640
+الشكلمحتاج انا مثلا short term خدوا بالك و احنا
+
+263
+00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:19,880
+محتاج short term انا بحاجة ل 100 ألف دولار بحاجة ل
+
+264
+00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,640
+100 ألف دولار مقابلهم بأصدر 100 ألف دولار اللي هو
+
+265
+00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:28,900
+CDs شهادات إيدها التزامات على ال 100 ألف دولار
+
+266
+00:24:28,900 --> 00:24:33,740
+هدول بنزل .. بنزلهم .. ببيعهم في السوق عبارة عن
+
+267
+00:24:33,740 --> 00:24:39,910
+شهادة إيدها وورقة مكتوب عليها ال bar valueنفترض
+
+268
+00:24:39,910 --> 00:24:43,650
+اللي هو ألف طبعا ألف أكم واحدة لازم أصدر معناه
+
+269
+00:24:43,650 --> 00:24:48,030
+كلام إذا كان ميت ألف لازم أصدر مية okay الألف
+
+270
+00:24:48,030 --> 00:24:53,290
+ومكتوب ال maturity date تاريخ الاستحقار تاريخ مثلا
+
+271
+00:24:53,290 --> 00:25:02,430
+تلاتين ستة 2013 طب هلأ إيه اللي بيستفيد ال
+
+272
+00:25:02,430 --> 00:25:07,650
+investors لما ال investors بدفع ألف دولار
+
+273
+00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,640
+للشركة طب ايش بيستفيد ال investor؟ ال investor هان
+
+274
+00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,200
+زي فكرة ال treasury bills زي فكرة ال treasury
+
+275
+00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:21,700
+bills ايش ال treasury bills حكينا فيها؟ بتنبع ب ..
+
+276
+00:25:21,700 --> 00:25:27,280
+بخصم اه اذا مابدفعش الف دولار للشركة بدفع اقل
+
+277
+00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:33,890
+فبدفع مثلا نحكي تسعمائة وسبعين دولاراليوم بدفع 970
+
+278
+00:25:33,890 --> 00:25:37,490
+دولار on the maturity date فى تاريخ الاستحقاق
+
+279
+00:25:37,490 --> 00:25:43,970
+receive 1000 دولار كام استفاد اذا؟ 30 هذه ال
+
+280
+00:25:43,970 --> 00:25:47,670
+commercial paper عادة
+
+281
+00:25:47,670 --> 00:25:51,930
+ممكن كمان ال big companies invest in this small
+
+282
+00:25:51,930 --> 00:25:58,090
+investors و ال big companiesال CDs is backed by
+
+283
+00:25:58,090 --> 00:26:02,610
+the .. by the banks مرات أن الشركة ما بتقدرش تعمل
+
+284
+00:26:02,610 --> 00:26:07,210
+marketing لل CDs .. لا عفوًا لل commercial papers،
+
+285
+00:26:07,210 --> 00:26:09,310
+ما بتقدرش تعمل marketing، ما بتقدرش تسوقهم،
+
+286
+00:26:09,310 --> 00:26:15,450
+تبيعهم، فعشان يسوقوهم فبطلبوا backed by the bank،
+
+287
+00:26:15,450 --> 00:26:20,170
+إيش backed؟ إنه يتم كفالة البنكيعني مثلا بالتل
+
+288
+00:26:20,170 --> 00:26:23,570
+شركة بالتل اتصالات بدها تصدر commercial paper
+
+289
+00:26:23,570 --> 00:26:27,690
+نازلاتهم على السوق مايريوش الناس يشتروهم بيخافوا
+
+290
+00:26:27,690 --> 00:26:30,690
+لان لو اشتروا ال .. اشتروا ال .. ال commercial
+
+291
+00:26:30,690 --> 00:26:34,790
+paper شو يضمنهم انه .. ان الشركة هتصدهم فبطلبوا
+
+292
+00:26:34,790 --> 00:26:38,910
+السوق المالي بيطلب ضمانة البنك بيسموها backed ..
+
+293
+00:26:38,910 --> 00:26:45,410
+backed okay backed شوفته كلمة packed packed يعني
+
+294
+00:26:46,570 --> 00:26:51,630
+بيدفعوا او بيحموا ال commercial paper by the banks
+
+295
+00:26:51,630 --> 00:26:55,990
+يعني ال bank هو المسئول في حال ان بيلتل مادفعتش
+
+296
+00:26:55,990 --> 00:27:01,350
+okay بيسموها backed بيحموا ال commercial paper
+
+297
+00:27:01,350 --> 00:27:05,890
+الأوراق التجارية يعني راحت بيلتل أصدرت أوراق
+
+298
+00:27:05,890 --> 00:27:10,090
+تجارية okay هل المستثمرين اجوا اشتروا الأوراق
+
+299
+00:27:10,090 --> 00:27:14,470
+التجارية بخاصة ما هي الضمانة ان ال بيلتل تدفع
+
+300
+00:27:15,370 --> 00:27:19,650
+الأوراق التجارية فيهم الاستحقاق مافيش ضمانة فالسوق
+
+301
+00:27:19,650 --> 00:27:23,550
+المالي بروح بيطلب من بالتل انه تحكي مع أهل البنوك
+
+302
+00:27:23,550 --> 00:27:30,330
+يعمل backed يعني يضمن ال commercial paper خوفا ما
+
+303
+00:27:30,330 --> 00:27:34,430
+عدم السداد طبعا تباع بخاصم زيها زي ال treasury
+
+304
+00:27:34,430 --> 00:27:38,030
+bills طبعا risk is higher risk than the
+
+305
+00:27:38,030 --> 00:27:41,610
+certificate of deposit مخاطر تبعتها أعلى من ال
+
+306
+00:27:41,610 --> 00:27:46,400
+certificate of depositالمخاطر تبعتها أعلى من
+
+307
+00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:51,320
+certificate of deposits اللي هو شهادات الإذاع اللي
+
+308
+00:27:51,320 --> 00:28:00,680
+تاوي حكينا فيها اتفضل اه
+
+309
+00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:07,960
+في طبعا انا متين وسبعين يوم يعني كام شهر متين
+
+310
+00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:14,550
+وسبعين يوم شهرين بتحكي عن تمان شهور أقل شيطب احنا
+
+311
+00:28:14,550 --> 00:28:20,410
+مثلنا اكم شهر؟ اكم شهر مثلنا؟ اربع شهور مثلنا
+
+312
+00:28:20,410 --> 00:28:25,530
+الواي تلاتين ستة الفين و تلاتاشر اه طبعا هذه قصيرة
+
+313
+00:28:25,530 --> 00:28:29,910
+الأجد قصيرة الأجد يعني ما .. ما يتم إصدار أكتر من
+
+314
+00:28:29,910 --> 00:28:36,270
+سنة اللي هو ما ال commercial paper okay طيب
+
+315
+00:28:36,270 --> 00:28:40,850
+bankers acceptance ال
+
+316
+00:28:40,850 --> 00:28:46,260
+bankers acceptance سمعتوا فيها؟اسمها القبولات
+
+317
+00:28:46,260 --> 00:28:52,720
+المصرفية بال
+
+318
+00:28:52,720 --> 00:29:00,340
+certificates
+
+319
+00:29:00,340 --> 00:29:07,800
+of deposit سؤالك لأ افريقيا ميحة و إذا هذا
+
+320
+00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,300
+بنناقشها بعد ما اخلص اللي خليني بس أركز على ال
+
+321
+00:29:10,300 --> 00:29:13,350
+bank is acceptanceبنركز على ال bank as acceptance
+
+322
+00:29:13,350 --> 00:29:17,650
+و بنرجع لسؤالك ال bank as acceptance بالعربي اسمها
+
+323
+00:29:17,650 --> 00:29:21,830
+القبولات المصرفية اه طب شو يعني .. هي عرفتوها
+
+324
+00:29:21,830 --> 00:29:24,730
+بالعربي طب إيش معناها القبولات المصرفية؟ إيش تعني؟
+
+325
+00:29:24,730 --> 00:29:31,170
+مابنعرفش فيها طب و من وين إجت؟ طبعا okay كاملي
+
+326
+00:29:31,170 --> 00:29:34,950
+البنت
+
+327
+00:29:34,950 --> 00:29:38,530
+المفروض تدرس تجارة دولية أنت بالاقتصاد جاي صح؟
+
+328
+00:29:38,530 --> 00:29:45,790
+سمعت بالقبولات المصرفية لك؟طب إيش هذه شغلتها؟ إيش
+
+329
+00:29:45,790 --> 00:29:50,290
+شغلتها؟ هي مهمة بالتجارة الخارجية إيش شغلتها ال ..
+
+330
+00:29:50,290 --> 00:29:54,430
+أه .. في حد بعرف؟ طب خليني أعطيكوا إيش الفكرة
+
+331
+00:29:54,430 --> 00:29:59,070
+أجربي يلا شوفوا ممكن تاجر يعني موجود برا عشان
+
+332
+00:29:59,070 --> 00:30:05,450
+يشتغل بتاعه بضمان من ال bank لازم ياخد قبول نصف من
+
+333
+00:30:05,450 --> 00:30:12,650
+ال bank تبعه للبلدهOkay يعني تقريبا انا انتبهوا بس
+
+334
+00:30:12,650 --> 00:30:15,670
+علينا انتبهوا علينا عشان تفهموها و ماتنسوهاش
+
+335
+00:30:15,670 --> 00:30:24,830
+خلينيكوا بس انتبهوا هالمعنى عشان ماتنسوهاش حتى
+
+336
+00:30:24,830 --> 00:30:32,570
+نرجع للتعريف و تعرفوا هلأ في عندي انا مصدر و في
+
+337
+00:30:32,570 --> 00:30:37,250
+عندي مستورد صح؟ اه بالظبط مين حكت اعتماد مستوردي؟
+
+338
+00:30:37,250 --> 00:30:41,510
+اه بال L Cبال Lc ال Lc اللي هو الاعتمادات
+
+339
+00:30:41,510 --> 00:30:49,730
+المستندية خلينا نوضحها بس هلأ مستورد فلسطيني ومصدر
+
+340
+00:30:49,730 --> 00:30:56,110
+صيني okay هلأ الفلسطيني بده من الصين بضاعة okay
+
+341
+00:30:56,110 --> 00:31:02,590
+يعني الصين بيبعت للفلسطين بضاعة و الفلسطين بيبعت
+
+342
+00:31:02,590 --> 00:31:05,790
+للصين ايش فلوس cash
+
+343
+00:31:08,470 --> 00:31:15,050
+or المبلغ عادة في التجارة الدولية مافيش يعني
+
+344
+00:31:15,050 --> 00:31:20,770
+القليل اللي بيدفعه cash مرة واحدة مرة واحدة فبروح
+
+345
+00:31:20,770 --> 00:31:25,230
+بفتحوا اعتماد مستندى اللي هو ايش ال LC اعتمادات
+
+346
+00:31:25,230 --> 00:31:28,170
+مستندية في الحالة اللي اعتمادات المستندية بيكون
+
+347
+00:31:28,170 --> 00:31:32,630
+البنك البنك الفلسطيني وليكم مثلا Bank of Palestine
+
+348
+00:31:32,630 --> 00:31:39,430
+اللي هو Bank فلسطين بيدمن المستورد لدىالبنك المصدر
+
+349
+00:31:39,430 --> 00:31:46,690
+بدفع المبلغ بدفع أياش؟ مقابل أنه البنك المصدر
+
+350
+00:31:46,690 --> 00:31:52,290
+بيضمن الصينية بداعة الإبداع okay هذا شغل كبير بس
+
+351
+00:31:52,290 --> 00:31:55,050
+احنا هذا جزء كبير يعني بدرسوها بفصل كامل هذا ال
+
+352
+00:31:55,050 --> 00:31:58,830
+process البسيطة هذه شايفينها بدرسوها بفصل كامل بس
+
+353
+00:31:58,830 --> 00:32:03,010
+احنا نفهم ال concept طب هل البنك الفلسطيني هذا
+
+354
+00:32:03,010 --> 00:32:07,510
+اللي هو ال bank of Palestine بروح بصدر check؟بصدر
+
+355
+00:32:07,510 --> 00:32:11,770
+ايش؟ شك هذا الشك يتم اصدره .. يصدره لمصلحته ايش؟
+
+356
+00:32:11,770 --> 00:32:17,370
+الصيني هذا الشك مكتوب عليه هكذا مكتوب عليه
+
+357
+00:32:17,370 --> 00:32:24,690
+accepted مقبول ايش يعني accepted؟ يعني it is
+
+358
+00:32:24,690 --> 00:32:28,850
+guaranteed that Bank of Palestine will pay to the
+
+359
+00:32:28,850 --> 00:32:32,130
+Bank of China this amount of money on this date
+
+360
+00:32:32,130 --> 00:32:37,070
+ضمان يا بنك الفلسطيني مش ضمانمش ضمان مافيش ضمان
+
+361
+00:32:37,070 --> 00:32:41,550
+هذه فيها دافع يعني بصدر شك البنك ل .. هنرجع
+
+362
+00:32:41,550 --> 00:32:46,910
+للتعريف البنك بيصدر شك لمصلحة البنك الآخر انه هذا
+
+363
+00:32:46,910 --> 00:32:51,450
+الشك مقبول is accepted بيكونوا حطوا ختم ال
+
+364
+00:32:51,450 --> 00:32:56,090
+accepted بالطريقة هذه شايفينها كيف؟ بال .. بعرض ال
+
+365
+00:32:56,090 --> 00:32:59,990
+accepted accepted يعني مقبول طالما البنك حط إشارة
+
+366
+00:32:59,990 --> 00:33:03,620
+accepted عليهمعناه الكلام مافيش إمكانية أنه يرجع
+
+367
+00:33:03,620 --> 00:33:09,040
+الشيك يعني hundred percent the bank will pay this
+
+368
+00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:14,860
+amount of money البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+369
+00:33:14,860 --> 00:33:17,540
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+370
+00:33:17,540 --> 00:33:17,660
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+371
+00:33:17,660 --> 00:33:19,740
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+372
+00:33:19,740 --> 00:33:21,660
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+373
+00:33:21,660 --> 00:33:22,540
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+374
+00:33:22,540 --> 00:33:25,500
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+375
+00:33:25,500 --> 00:33:33,420
+البنك الفلسطيني البهي أمر من خلال ال bank by a
+
+376
+00:33:33,420 --> 00:33:37,220
+banks customer من خلال ال bank customer اللي هو
+
+377
+00:33:37,220 --> 00:33:42,440
+المستورد الفلسطيني هو بيقول له اصدرلي هذا الشيك to
+
+378
+00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:47,680
+pay a sum of money on a future date لدفع مبلغ معين
+
+379
+00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:54,540
+في المستقبل طيب لسه ما انتهتش القصة هلأ الشيك راح
+
+380
+00:33:54,540 --> 00:33:58,400
+لمين؟ هاي شايفين الشيك؟ هاي الشيك راح لمين؟
+
+381
+00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:03,810
+المكتوب acceptedراحنا مين؟ للصيني الصيني ها يوهان
+
+382
+00:34:03,810 --> 00:34:11,370
+okay واستلام الشيك okay هاي الشيك بيده هلا الشيك
+
+383
+00:34:11,370 --> 00:34:16,390
+هذا is in the future هذا في المستقبل يعني و ليكن
+
+384
+00:34:16,390 --> 00:34:21,450
+مثلا تاريخ ال maturity date سبعه مثلا خمستاشر
+
+385
+00:34:21,450 --> 00:34:27,010
+تلاتة الفين و تلتاشر هذا الصيني he needs money
+
+386
+00:34:27,010 --> 00:34:34,920
+محتاج مصاريbut he cannot liquidate the cheque now
+
+387
+00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,800
+مقدرش انه يعمله هالجات او ياخد قيمته هالجات he has
+
+388
+00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,860
+to discount this لازم يعمله discount يعمله خاصا
+
+389
+00:34:42,860 --> 00:34:46,200
+بروح على السوق المالي او بروح على البنوك و بقولهم
+
+390
+00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,520
+اتفضلوا هاي cheque و ليكن قيمة ال cheque مثلا
+
+391
+00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:52,840
+twenty thousand dollar عشرين الف دولار بروح على ال
+
+392
+00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:56,620
+cheque و بقولهم hi he is fine this is chequeفبقول
+
+393
+00:34:56,620 --> 00:34:59,920
+له تعالى ال bank this is the maturity of this
+
+394
+00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:07,480
+shake sir is on 15th of march 2013 هذا بيستحق ب 20
+
+395
+00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:12,520
+مارس في 13 you would like to liquidate this yes
+
+396
+00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:18,200
+but this is discounted لكن هذا عليه discount لازم
+
+397
+00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:22,440
+نخصمه would you mind to do thisيعني هل تمانع ذلك؟
+
+398
+00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:26,560
+no is fine بعمله discount بقوله okay so you get
+
+399
+00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:30,920
+nineteen five hundred thousand خدها التسعة عشر ألف
+
+400
+00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:35,220
+و خمسمية دولار this is yours البنك كام استفاد من
+
+401
+00:35:35,220 --> 00:35:39,020
+هذا الموضوع؟ خمسمية دولار شفته ال bank is
+
+402
+00:35:39,020 --> 00:35:43,280
+acceptance؟ طيب البنك كمان حط ال bank is
+
+403
+00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:48,300
+acceptance عنده و راح محتاج سيولةاحتاج السيولة
+
+404
+00:35:48,300 --> 00:35:52,260
+مثلا نحكي بواحد تلاتة هيعيد نفس الشغلة مع ناس مع
+
+405
+00:35:52,260 --> 00:35:56,040
+.. مع .. مع أخر okay إذا شفتوا ال bank is
+
+406
+00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,800
+acceptance كيف أنه ممكن تكون وسيلة من وسائل
+
+407
+00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:05,620
+الاستثمار طبعا هذا الكلام لعند الف وتسعمية أو نحكي
+
+408
+00:36:05,620 --> 00:36:09,740
+الفين وخمسة كان ينشغل في غزة هذا اسم ال bank is
+
+409
+00:36:09,740 --> 00:36:15,690
+acceptance في حد عنده سؤال فيها؟نجف عند هذا الحد
+
+410
+00:36:15,690 --> 00:36:18,270
+okay عشان نحكي المرة الفاتة عن ال euro dollar
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/np_37KBtGH8_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/np_37KBtGH8_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..25c1b57a4431fe562b03770d9a5b944d07e3220d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/np_37KBtGH8_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1868 @@
+1
+00:00:21,430 --> 00:00:26,450
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم ال .. ال .. الأسبوع الماضي
+
+2
+00:00:26,450 --> 00:00:31,690
+حكينا بال .. بال money markets instruments بال
+
+3
+00:00:31,690 --> 00:00:35,090
+money market instruments اليوم بدنا نحكي على ال
+
+4
+00:00:35,090 --> 00:00:38,190
+yield for the money market instruments يعني العائد
+
+5
+00:00:38,190 --> 00:00:41,350
+اللي ممكن نحصل عليه بال money market instruments و
+
+6
+00:00:41,350 --> 00:00:44,170
+كمان نحكي بال capital markets يعني هنا في هدفين
+
+7
+00:00:44,170 --> 00:00:48,410
+اليوم الهدف الأول ان احنا to show the yield of the
+
+8
+00:00:48,410 --> 00:00:51,460
+money markets ال yield يعني العائدوالهدف التاني
+
+9
+00:00:51,460 --> 00:00:54,420
+لدخل في موضوع الجديد اللي هو اسمه capital markets
+
+10
+00:00:54,420 --> 00:01:04,220
+اللي هو أسواق رأس المال طبعا طيب نحاول بس نذكركم
+
+11
+00:01:04,220 --> 00:01:06,920
+بال money market securities زي ما أنتوا شايفين
+
+12
+00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,340
+حكينا عن treasury bills اللي هو دولات الخزينة
+
+13
+00:01:10,340 --> 00:01:12,880
+للناس اللي ماكانوش حاضرين okay
+
+14
+00:01:14,890 --> 00:01:22,090
+و يجب أن تعرف بيد و أسك بريس و تقرأ بيد و أسك بريس
+
+15
+00:01:22,090 --> 00:01:30,670
+و تعرف كيف تستطيع تغيير من تسكوت إلى نظام بريس لأن
+
+16
+00:01:30,670 --> 00:01:34,080
+في الوالد ستريتيعني wall street اللي هي المكان
+
+17
+00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,780
+اللي بيظهروا فيه أسعار ال treasury bills or from
+
+18
+00:01:37,780 --> 00:01:40,800
+the dealers they cannot show you the prices
+
+19
+00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,840
+بورجونات ال prices بورجونات ال discount rates okay
+
+20
+00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:48,240
+so you should know how to convert the discount
+
+21
+00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:52,000
+rate into the prices certificate of dom visit اللي
+
+22
+00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,900
+هو شهادات الإيداع ال commercial paper اللي هو
+
+23
+00:01:55,900 --> 00:02:00,200
+أوراق التجاريةbankers acceptance اللي هو القبولات
+
+24
+00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,240
+المصرفية وحكينا أن القبولات المصرفية بتكون ناتجة
+
+25
+00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:07,200
+عن عملية التجارة الدولية okay بين المصدر و بين
+
+26
+00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,740
+المستورد و ال bankers acceptance تستخدم كأدام
+
+27
+00:02:10,740 --> 00:02:13,760
+الأدوات الاستثمارية ال euro dollars حكينا ال euro
+
+28
+00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,520
+dollars اللي هي ال dollar outside the united
+
+29
+00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:20,960
+states و they trade on the euro dollar because it
+
+30
+00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,660
+has higher rate than the on-site United States،
+
+31
+00:02:24,660 --> 00:02:28,900
+إلها عوائد أعلى من ما لو كانت داخل الولايات
+
+32
+00:02:28,900 --> 00:02:32,500
+المتحدة، حكينا عن ال repos و ال reverses اللي هو
+
+33
+00:02:32,500 --> 00:02:38,580
+اتفاقية إعادة الشراء و طريقة العكسية
+
+34
+00:02:39,920 --> 00:02:43,000
+فحكينا على ال federal funds أن البنوك التجارية
+
+35
+00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,340
+بتكون محتفظة لدى البنك المركزي في حسابات حسابات
+
+36
+00:02:46,340 --> 00:02:49,260
+ممكن تكون فائض ممكن تكون عاجز وبالتالي يتم احتساب
+
+37
+00:02:49,260 --> 00:02:52,800
+ال federal funds حسب الفائض و العاجز كمان ملاحظة
+
+38
+00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,140
+مهمة أن ال federal funds rate is using as a
+
+39
+00:02:56,140 --> 00:03:02,250
+monetary policy يستخدم كسياسة نقديةso increase the
+
+40
+00:03:02,250 --> 00:03:05,750
+federal
+
+41
+00:03:05,750 --> 00:03:11,650
+fund rates it means motivating banks to keep more
+
+42
+00:03:11,650 --> 00:03:16,870
+funds in the central bank بيخليهم إنه يحتفظوا أكتر
+
+43
+00:03:16,870 --> 00:03:20,970
+من بلغ لدى البنك المركزي and in this the central
+
+44
+00:03:20,970 --> 00:03:25,390
+bank absorbing the inflation rates بيحاول إنه يخفض
+
+45
+00:03:25,390 --> 00:03:28,370
+من معدلات التدخم okay
+
+46
+00:03:30,820 --> 00:03:35,800
+هلا نحكي عن ال yields on market instruments ال
+
+47
+00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:40,320
+yield العائد زي ما حكينا ان العائد لازم يكون
+
+48
+00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:48,200
+انعكاس ل risk and return risk and return بدنا نعرف
+
+49
+00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:54,440
+which instrument has lower rate of return and
+
+50
+00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:58,950
+which instrument has higher rate of returnال
+
+51
+00:03:58,950 --> 00:04:04,290
+treasury bills تعتبر risk free it has the least
+
+52
+00:04:04,290 --> 00:04:09,230
+return and the least risk يعني تعتبر أقل مخاطر
+
+53
+00:04:09,230 --> 00:04:14,590
+وتعتبر أقل عائد ف treasury bills treasury bills هي
+
+54
+00:04:14,590 --> 00:04:18,850
+فيها risk free إيش يعني risk free risk free it
+
+55
+00:04:18,850 --> 00:04:20,950
+means خالية من المخاطر
+
+56
+00:04:24,190 --> 00:04:26,990
+because it's guaranteed from the .. from the
+
+57
+00:04:26,990 --> 00:04:30,030
+central bank or from .. from the governments محمية
+
+58
+00:04:30,030 --> 00:04:32,230
+من ال .. is protected by the governments محمية من
+
+59
+00:04:32,230 --> 00:04:35,690
+الحكومة okay and there is no default risk default
+
+60
+00:04:35,690 --> 00:04:39,110
+risk يعني مخاطر عدم السداد مافيشش مخاطر عدم السداد
+
+61
+00:04:39,110 --> 00:04:41,510
+الحكومة guaranteed the government is guaranteed to
+
+62
+00:04:41,510 --> 00:04:49,110
+pay back the treasury bills okay بعدين بيجي مثلا
+
+63
+00:04:49,110 --> 00:04:52,410
+ال CDs عارفين ال CDs اللي هو certificate of
+
+64
+00:04:52,410 --> 00:04:57,030
+depositOkay بعدين بيجي ال commercial paper اللي هو
+
+65
+00:04:57,030 --> 00:05:03,430
+الأوراق التجارية بعدين بيجي عندنا اللي هو ال
+
+66
+00:05:03,430 --> 00:05:08,270
+repurchase agreement agreement وننساش أنه in
+
+67
+00:05:08,270 --> 00:05:10,930
+between ممكن ييجي اللي هو ال bankers acceptance
+
+68
+00:05:10,930 --> 00:05:15,590
+bankers acceptance عارفين ال bankers acceptance
+
+69
+00:05:15,590 --> 00:05:20,370
+اللي هو القبولات المصرفية معناه الكلام is زي ما
+
+70
+00:05:20,370 --> 00:05:24,870
+انتوا شايفين زي ما انتوا شايفين على ال ..زي ما
+
+71
+00:05:24,870 --> 00:05:32,410
+انتوا شايفين هاد ال area هاد
+
+72
+00:05:32,410 --> 00:05:38,110
+ال area شايفينها المنطقة هادى منطقة تتميز بان
+
+73
+00:05:38,110 --> 00:05:43,250
+مخاطرها منخفضة okay وعائدها منخفض لان قبل قليل
+
+74
+00:05:43,250 --> 00:05:45,930
+هنحكي بال capital market ال capital market
+
+75
+00:05:45,930 --> 00:05:50,810
+starting from this from here it includes higher
+
+76
+00:05:50,810 --> 00:05:55,330
+risk and higher returnفهذه introduction عشان نحكي
+
+77
+00:05:55,330 --> 00:05:59,150
+بال .. بال capital market اذا again كل ما احنا
+
+78
+00:05:59,150 --> 00:06:03,610
+بنزيد العائد هتزيد المخاطر يعني زي ما انتوا شايفين
+
+79
+00:06:03,610 --> 00:06:07,410
+يعني مثلا ال commercial paper العائد بتاعها شوفوا
+
+80
+00:06:07,410 --> 00:06:14,750
+العائد العائد هيه أعلى من ال treasury bills هال
+
+81
+00:06:14,750 --> 00:06:18,570
+treasury bills وهي ال .. ال .. ال commercial paper
+
+82
+00:06:18,570 --> 00:06:24,100
+ليش؟ لأن مخاطرها أعلىفكويس يعني مثلا زي ما هانال
+
+83
+00:06:24,100 --> 00:06:26,260
+أخت سألت إيش ممكن يكون فيه أسئلة في الامتحانات
+
+84
+00:06:26,260 --> 00:06:31,820
+ممكن نسأل انه which security hold higher rate of
+
+85
+00:06:31,820 --> 00:06:38,200
+return and why for instance if we say about if we
+
+86
+00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:44,860
+talk about the the CDs why CDs has lower rate of
+
+87
+00:06:44,860 --> 00:06:48,520
+return than the repurchase agreement for instance
+
+88
+00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:56,940
+لأ ليش هي أقل مخاطر أقل مخاطر ممكن نحكي لو ال
+
+89
+00:06:56,940 --> 00:07:01,580
+return ما هو ليش لو ال return و ليش عائد مخفض if
+
+90
+00:07:01,580 --> 00:07:05,220
+you read between lines إذا بتفرقوا بين السطور إن
+
+91
+00:07:05,220 --> 00:07:09,220
+ال .. ال CDs is backed by the .. by the central
+
+92
+00:07:09,220 --> 00:07:12,580
+bank or by .. by the government or backed by the
+
+93
+00:07:12,580 --> 00:07:17,340
+.. the banks يعني محمية من قبل البنوك طب why the
+
+94
+00:07:17,340 --> 00:07:22,460
+treasury bills؟has risk free comparing with the
+
+95
+00:07:22,460 --> 00:07:27,060
+commercial paper ليش ال treasury bills مخاطرها أقل
+
+96
+00:07:27,060 --> 00:07:30,560
+من ال commercial paper من من من ال governments
+
+97
+00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,700
+because it's guaranteed by the governments and it
+
+98
+00:07:33,700 --> 00:07:38,120
+has default free default risk ماعليهاش مخاطر دي
+
+99
+00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:41,960
+عدم استداد okay يعني هاي المواضيع اللي احنا we can
+
+100
+00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:48,000
+ask around this طيب
+
+101
+00:07:53,310 --> 00:07:56,490
+نحكي على the .. the .. the capital markets نيجي
+
+102
+00:07:56,490 --> 00:08:01,850
+نحكي على ال capital markets the capital markets we
+
+103
+00:08:01,850 --> 00:08:04,510
+classify the capital market in the chapter one
+
+104
+00:08:04,510 --> 00:08:13,010
+into three main markets bond market okay or let's
+
+105
+00:08:13,010 --> 00:08:17,390
+say equity markets, debit markets and derivatives
+
+106
+00:08:17,390 --> 00:08:20,330
+هم الذاكرين لما حكينا الأسواق رأس المال اللي لها
+
+107
+00:08:20,330 --> 00:08:27,160
+تلت أنواعdebt market أسواق الديون equity market و
+
+108
+00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,000
+ال derivatives هدول التلات أنواع من اللي أكتبلكم
+
+109
+00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:35,720
+بيهم كمان مرة بس للتسجيل ال
+
+110
+00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:41,560
+capital market هي .. فينا تلات أنواع debts هي أقل
+
+111
+00:08:41,560 --> 00:08:49,340
+مخاطر بعدين عندنا ال equity مخاطرها أعلى شوية و
+
+112
+00:08:49,340 --> 00:08:51,700
+بعدين أخر إشي اللي هو ال derivatives
+
+113
+00:08:55,270 --> 00:08:57,650
+طبعا ال derivatives عارفين هال derivatives اللي هو
+
+114
+00:08:57,650 --> 00:09:02,430
+الاش المشتقات طبعا المشتقات زى ما أنتوا شايفين
+
+115
+00:09:02,430 --> 00:09:07,210
+أعلى مقاطر مقارنة مع ال debts market ومقارنة مع ال
+
+116
+00:09:07,210 --> 00:09:14,550
+equity market هنبدأ نحكي بال debts markets هنبدأ
+
+117
+00:09:14,550 --> 00:09:17,030
+نعمل classifications لل debts market ال debts
+
+118
+00:09:17,030 --> 00:09:19,370
+markets أهم سوق في ال debts markets هو ال bond
+
+119
+00:09:19,370 --> 00:09:23,450
+marketsيعني لو جينا هنا ال debt market اهم the
+
+120
+00:09:23,450 --> 00:09:27,170
+most important market in the debt market is the
+
+121
+00:09:27,170 --> 00:09:35,430
+bond market سوق السندات يعني مثلا خينا نرجع
+
+122
+00:09:35,430 --> 00:09:46,270
+للميزانية العامة balance of sheets لأي شركة هاي
+
+123
+00:09:46,270 --> 00:09:49,090
+ال assets و هاي ال liabilities
+
+124
+00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:56,920
+Okay هذا المكان هو ال current assets هنا وهنا
+
+125
+00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,100
+current liabilities current assets وهنا current
+
+126
+00:10:00,100 --> 00:10:06,160
+liabilities هنا fixed assets okay
+
+127
+00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:14,460
+وهنا في شغلتين long term liabilities okay
+
+128
+00:10:14,460 --> 00:10:18,740
+long term liabilities وعندي اللي هو ايش ال equity
+
+129
+00:10:22,500 --> 00:10:28,100
+Equity and shareholder ال current assets is funded
+
+130
+00:10:28,100 --> 00:10:31,280
+by the current liabilities يعني احنا ال current
+
+131
+00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,120
+assets الأصول المتداولة بنموّلها من وين؟ من الأصول
+
+132
+00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,720
+.. من ال .. من الاتزامات المتداولة ال fixed assets
+
+133
+00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,120
+ال machines و ال equipments بنموّلهم من وين؟
+
+134
+00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:46,020
+بنموّلهم من جانبين من ال long term liabilities and
+
+135
+00:10:46,020 --> 00:10:50,740
+equity ال bonds market is located under long term
+
+136
+00:10:50,740 --> 00:10:54,840
+liabilitiesال long term زي ما أخدته بال accounting
+
+137
+00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,940
+في المحاسبة يعني أنا مثلا بدي أعمل expansion
+
+138
+00:10:58,940 --> 00:11:01,740
+عارفين شو معنى expansion؟ expansion يعني أعمل توسع
+
+139
+00:11:01,740 --> 00:11:06,780
+أمامي خيارين يا إما أنا بستخدم ديون يا إما بستخدم
+
+140
+00:11:06,780 --> 00:11:09,540
+حقوق ملكية يعني مصدر أسهم أو بعمل mixing between
+
+141
+00:11:09,540 --> 00:11:14,640
+them أو بعمل خلط من أتهم يعني مثلا ال expansion
+
+142
+00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,640
+بيكلفني مليون دولار بدي أعمل هنا expansion مثلا
+
+143
+00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:23,790
+بدي أشتري new machines بيكلفني مثلا مليون دولاربدي
+
+144
+00:11:23,790 --> 00:11:27,150
+one million one million ممكن احكي انه half million
+
+145
+00:11:27,150 --> 00:11:30,450
+five hundred thousands from the long term
+
+146
+00:11:30,450 --> 00:11:33,830
+liabilities and the rest from equity يعني خمسمية
+
+147
+00:11:33,830 --> 00:11:36,770
+اخدها من ال debts و خمسمية اخدها من ايه من ال
+
+148
+00:11:36,770 --> 00:11:41,070
+equity طب الخمسمية how we can use the five hundred
+
+149
+00:11:41,070 --> 00:11:44,450
+او how we can get the five hundred we can issue
+
+150
+00:11:44,450 --> 00:11:50,270
+bonds ممكن نصدر سندات okay يعني كمان مرة انه انا
+
+151
+00:11:50,270 --> 00:11:54,460
+بحتاج expansionI need one million بحتاج one
+
+152
+00:11:54,460 --> 00:11:58,680
+million so I have two options use the long term
+
+153
+00:11:58,680 --> 00:12:02,120
+liabilities or equity or mixing between them يا
+
+154
+00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,800
+أما بستخدم هذي يا هذي يا أما ب .. بعمل خلط من أتم
+
+155
+00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:09,180
+so for instance we decide to issue five hundred
+
+156
+00:12:09,180 --> 00:12:14,260
+thousands by using bonds أصدر سندات إنه بدأ أنا
+
+157
+00:12:14,260 --> 00:12:20,520
+أمول المشروع نص المشروع بالدانيأدى مثلا من الbank
+
+158
+00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:23,880
+أو أعمل مرابحة أو الطريقة اللى .. اللى بتناسبني
+
+159
+00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:29,260
+اللى أصدر سندات فى حد عرف ال .. السندات قبلهاك
+
+160
+00:12:29,260 --> 00:12:34,140
+أكيد إيش what it means bonds اتفضلى اللى هو ..
+
+161
+00:12:34,140 --> 00:12:38,940
+الشخص ما بيبقى السندات اللى هو ال game طبعا ادت ..
+
+162
+00:12:38,940 --> 00:12:41,720
+ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا
+
+163
+00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:42,300
+ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا
+
+164
+00:12:42,300 --> 00:12:42,600
+ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا
+
+165
+00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:47,620
+ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طب
+
+166
+00:12:51,190 --> 00:12:57,350
+المدة هاي كام هتكون احتمالها؟ سنة طب إذا شو الفرق
+
+167
+00:12:57,350 --> 00:13:00,890
+بين ال money market وبين capital market if you
+
+168
+00:13:00,890 --> 00:13:05,180
+save one year؟فبتصير money market في الحالة دي صح؟
+
+169
+00:13:05,180 --> 00:13:09,320
+so it is greater than one year هي أكتر من سنة ممكن
+
+170
+00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,780
+تصل عشر سنين ممكن تصل تلاتين سنة في موعد استحقاق
+
+171
+00:13:12,780 --> 00:13:17,840
+السنة في موعد استحقاق انا بتدفع ألف و مئة سنة أنا
+
+172
+00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:23,170
+أخدت بألفيعني حسب نسبة .. كاملة مش مشكلة .. انا
+
+173
+00:13:23,170 --> 00:13:29,190
+بنفعه بالنسبة للزيادة فمصدر الصناد بكون استفاد من
+
+174
+00:13:29,190 --> 00:13:36,370
+الصناد اللي هو .. مصدر الصناد؟ ايوة ال investor مش
+
+175
+00:13:36,370 --> 00:13:38,970
+مصدر الصناد المصدر الصناد هو بصدر الصناد عشان يخسر
+
+176
+00:13:38,970 --> 00:13:45,310
+على الفلوس ايوة الوضع الطبيعي ان انا امول الأصول
+
+177
+00:13:45,310 --> 00:13:49,530
+المتداولة من الخصوم المتداولةمظبوط؟ مظبوط الان
+
+178
+00:13:49,530 --> 00:13:52,850
+بالنسبة لتعوين المحاسبة بيحكوا انه انا الأصول
+
+179
+00:13:52,850 --> 00:13:56,490
+متداولة مثلا عندي مخزون المخزون انا بدأ اموّل
+
+180
+00:13:56,490 --> 00:13:59,650
+مخزون يعني بدأ انا اشري مخزون المخزون وين؟ أصول
+
+181
+00:13:59,650 --> 00:14:03,570
+متداولة ولا أصول ثابتة أصول متداولة بسألك انت
+
+182
+00:14:03,570 --> 00:14:07,770
+متداولة متداولة اه الاصول المتداولة أمامي خيارين
+
+183
+00:14:07,770 --> 00:14:11,950
+يا اما انا اموّلها من أصول من خصوم متداولة اللي هو
+
+184
+00:14:11,950 --> 00:14:15,620
+الاتزامات زي ما انت شايفهامن الجانب هذا او من
+
+185
+00:14:15,620 --> 00:14:20,360
+الجانب هذا اللي هو الثابتة من الاتزامات طويلة
+
+186
+00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:24,560
+الأجل طبعا مش منطق انا اروح مخزون امول من أصول او
+
+187
+00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:29,320
+من الاتزامات طويلة الأجل يعني مانفعش مثلا انا بدى
+
+188
+00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:34,160
+اشري مخزون اروح اصدر سندات مانفع فبروح انا ايش من
+
+189
+00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:39,920
+الاتزامات متداولة okay طيبهذه الاتزانات المتداولة
+
+190
+00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:44,020
+ايش الأسواق بتاعتها اللي حكيناها الأسبوع الفاتر و
+
+191
+00:14:44,020 --> 00:14:48,900
+أعطيناك مقدمة عن الأسبوع هذا اللي هي عندك ال
+
+192
+00:14:48,900 --> 00:14:51,740
+commercial paper ممكن نصدر commercial paper okay
+
+193
+00:14:51,740 --> 00:14:56,700
+ممكن bankers acceptance إذا موجودة عندنا هاي ال ..
+
+194
+00:14:56,700 --> 00:15:00,920
+الوسائل في الخصوم المتداولة هاي بيسموها ال
+
+195
+00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,160
+matching أنه أنا بدير الأصول المتداولة من الخصوم
+
+196
+00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:08,660
+المتداولةنيجي نحكي على الأصول الثابتة هان، لما أنا
+
+197
+00:15:08,660 --> 00:15:12,340
+بدي أشري مكان، machines و equipments، من وين بدي
+
+198
+00:15:12,340 --> 00:15:15,980
+أشريهم؟
+
+199
+00:15:15,980 --> 00:15:20,860
+أنا لما بدي أشري مكينة، من وين بدي أشري المكينة؟
+
+200
+00:15:20,860 --> 00:15:26,160
+مصادر التمويل، إيش أنواع مصادر التمويل؟ طويلة و
+
+201
+00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:28,500
+قصيرة الأجل، إيش القصير الأجل؟
+
+202
+00:15:34,250 --> 00:15:36,910
+قصيرة الأجل ايش و هي؟ القروض قصيرة الأجل اللي هي
+
+203
+00:15:36,910 --> 00:15:39,250
+موجودة في ال money market ولا ال capital market؟
+
+204
+00:15:39,250 --> 00:15:41,270
+لأ في ال money market في ال money market طيب خلينا
+
+205
+00:15:41,270 --> 00:15:43,550
+نركز بال capital market ايش عندنا option بال
+
+206
+00:15:43,550 --> 00:15:46,250
+capital market؟ ايش في عندنا خيارات بال capital
+
+207
+00:15:46,250 --> 00:15:50,710
+market؟ السندات لإن انت قلت انه ممكن تكون عشر سنين
+
+208
+00:15:50,710 --> 00:15:54,930
+عشرين سنة okay سندات و ايش كمان؟ غير السندات
+
+209
+00:15:58,620 --> 00:16:02,160
+إيش غير السندات؟ إحنا حكينا في عندنا ممكن يكون
+
+210
+00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:06,100
+سوقين هاي الموجودين اللي عندك في عندك شغلتين long
+
+211
+00:16:06,100 --> 00:16:10,760
+term liabilities و .. و .. و كمان شغلة لأ اجريها
+
+212
+00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:16,640
+منيح equity ايش يعني equity؟ معناه حقوق ملكية
+
+213
+00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:20,740
+طبعا؟ فأنا يا أما بستخدم ال long term liabilities
+
+214
+00:16:20,740 --> 00:16:24,700
+اللي هو الديون طوية للأجن أو بستخدم حقوق ملكية ال
+
+215
+00:16:24,700 --> 00:16:29,120
+long term liabilities أي سوقها ده سوق سنداتطبعا؟
+
+216
+00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,320
+فعلى سوق السندات اللي هو the .. the bond market
+
+217
+00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:38,000
+كيف أنا بطرح السندات؟ أنا واضح للكلام؟ فهمت
+
+218
+00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:42,180
+الخريطة هذه؟ مين مش فاهمها؟ الخريطة .. هذه الخريطة
+
+219
+00:16:43,130 --> 00:16:45,850
+طب هلا وصلنا لعند ال bond market اللي هو أسواق
+
+220
+00:16:45,850 --> 00:16:49,530
+سندات طوية الأجل بدأ أصدر سند كيف قالية إصدار
+
+221
+00:16:49,530 --> 00:16:52,810
+السند قالية إصدار السند إن الشركة قررت هان كام
+
+222
+00:16:52,810 --> 00:16:58,790
+تصدر 500 ألف دولار محتاجة لمليون لتعمل توسع 500
+
+223
+00:16:58,790 --> 00:17:04,870
+ألف هتكون ديون و 500 ألف هتكون equity طب كيف يتم
+
+224
+00:17:04,870 --> 00:17:08,870
+إصدار السند إصدار السند خليني أبص لحظة إصدار السند
+
+225
+00:17:08,870 --> 00:17:11,210
+بيكون
+
+226
+00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:20,660
+هذا هو سند السند فيه له bar value يكون له قيمة
+
+227
+00:17:20,660 --> 00:17:27,260
+اسمية القيمة الاسمية مثلا ممكن يكون الف دولار يعني
+
+228
+00:17:27,260 --> 00:17:29,880
+إذا كان القيمة الاسمية الف دولار أكم سند لازم أصدر
+
+229
+00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:34,360
+خليني أعينك السؤال إذا كان القيمة الاسمية للسند
+
+230
+00:17:34,360 --> 00:17:38,200
+أنا محتاج لخمسمية ألف دولار إذا كان القيمة الاسمية
+
+231
+00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,860
+للسند الف دولار أكم سند لازم أصدر لأ هي خليها
+
+232
+00:17:43,260 --> 00:17:49,320
+رياضية بسيطة إذا كان قيمة السند ألف دولار و أنا
+
+233
+00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:54,380
+محتاج خمسمية ألف دولار أكم سند لازم أصدر؟ خمسمية
+
+234
+00:17:54,380 --> 00:17:59,600
+إذا لازم أصدر خمسمية سند طيب هل ال bar value
+
+235
+00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,880
+واضحة؟ ميت ألف ال bar value فيه كمان شغل لازم
+
+236
+00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:07,740
+نعرفها اللي هو ال coupon rate coupon rate إيش ال
+
+237
+00:18:07,740 --> 00:18:12,150
+coupon rate؟ اللي هو الفائدة الكوبونيةالـ
+
+238
+00:18:12,150 --> 00:18:19,070
+corporate rate نفترض 8% ايش يعني 8%؟ كل سنة حامل
+
+239
+00:18:19,070 --> 00:18:22,610
+السند اللي هو ال investor اللي بديش للسند لازم
+
+240
+00:18:22,610 --> 00:18:28,170
+يحصل 8% على قيمة السند كل نهاية السند كل نهاية
+
+241
+00:18:28,170 --> 00:18:31,490
+السنة بديه يحصل على 8% مقابل ان هو ايش حصل على
+
+242
+00:18:31,490 --> 00:18:35,770
+السند بعدين في عندنا شغلة اسمها maturity dates
+
+243
+00:18:36,820 --> 00:18:41,060
+التاريخ الاستحقاق اليوم احنا في سنة 2013 نفترض انه
+
+244
+00:18:41,060 --> 00:18:51,260
+يبدو ي 31 12 2023 يعني تقريبا اننا حوالي عشر سنوات
+
+245
+00:18:51,260 --> 00:18:56,420
+عم بالسند كل سنة ال investor حامل السند هيحصل على
+
+246
+00:18:56,420 --> 00:19:02,580
+كام؟ هيحصل على 8% من قيمة السندطبعا في سندات .. في
+
+247
+00:19:02,580 --> 00:19:08,740
+سندات بتدفع annual interest فائدة سنوية و في سندات
+
+248
+00:19:08,740 --> 00:19:14,700
+بتدفع semi-annual اللي هو نصف سنوية يعني لما تكون
+
+249
+00:19:14,700 --> 00:19:17,240
+نصف سنوية تمانية في المية كدهش ندفع كل ست شهور
+
+250
+00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:24,920
+اربعة في المية okay طيب هلأ فهمتي هذا السند كيف
+
+251
+00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,040
+يتم التعامل فيه؟
+
+252
+00:19:33,710 --> 00:19:38,290
+تم إصدار السند من قبل نفطرة شركة من الشركات مثلا
+
+253
+00:19:38,290 --> 00:19:46,110
+شركة Badico Badico محتاجة هذا التمويل الشركة
+
+254
+00:19:46,110 --> 00:19:50,350
+الفلسطينية طبعا هذه أصدرت السند تم إصدار السند
+
+255
+00:19:50,350 --> 00:19:55,650
+السند هلأ وين بروح؟ على ال financial markets حكينا
+
+256
+00:19:55,650 --> 00:19:59,490
+إنه مملوع إن الشركات تتعامل مباشرة مع ال
+
+257
+00:19:59,490 --> 00:20:02,190
+individuals مع ال investors لازم يكون وين؟ إيش في
+
+258
+00:20:02,190 --> 00:20:06,390
+النص؟financial intermediaries او dealers بروحوا
+
+259
+00:20:06,390 --> 00:20:08,510
+طبعا ال financial market اللي هم عندنا ال dealers
+
+260
+00:20:08,510 --> 00:20:15,330
+and they market this بسوقوه ببيعوه في السوق بيجي
+
+261
+00:20:15,330 --> 00:20:19,350
+ال investors هاي ال investors okay بيجي ال
+
+262
+00:20:19,350 --> 00:20:23,830
+investors بشتريوا السندات بدفعوا كام كام لازم
+
+263
+00:20:23,830 --> 00:20:27,820
+يدفعوا ال investorsبيدفعوا ألف دولار قيمة السند
+
+264
+00:20:27,820 --> 00:20:33,100
+بيدفعوا ال bar value لحظوا
+
+265
+00:20:33,100 --> 00:20:38,060
+هنا pay to mean to the pedico بدفعوا يعني خلّيني
+
+266
+00:20:38,060 --> 00:20:44,920
+نمشي مع السهم بدفعوا ل pedico ألف دولار ضرب خمس
+
+267
+00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:50,160
+مائة خمس مائة سند احنا
+
+268
+00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:54,590
+بنطرحه في السوق okay و بنشوف مين بدي يشتريحسب
+
+269
+00:20:54,590 --> 00:20:59,210
+الطلبة نفترض إنه احنا كنا حظنا منيح و تم بيع
+
+270
+00:20:59,210 --> 00:21:03,730
+الإصدار ف 500 سنة أتبيعناهم في الف هي ال 500 ألف
+
+271
+00:21:03,730 --> 00:21:08,950
+أخدناهم طبعا ال dealer هياخد عمولة بسيطة مقابل هو
+
+272
+00:21:08,950 --> 00:21:15,830
+marketing the bonds مقابل أنه سوق السندات خلصنا ال
+
+273
+00:21:15,830 --> 00:21:21,550
+process هذا طيب هلأ badico كل نهاية السنة إيش راح
+
+274
+00:21:21,550 --> 00:21:25,680
+تدفع؟هتدفع اللي هو ال fixed income اللي هو ان
+
+275
+00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:31,120
+الفائدة هيلاحظوا تمانية في المية ضرب ال bar value
+
+276
+00:21:31,120 --> 00:21:35,980
+ال bar value كام؟ الف هتدفعها لل investors شوفوا
+
+277
+00:21:35,980 --> 00:21:44,400
+اتجاه السهم الفائدة
+
+278
+00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,900
+اللي هي تمانية في المية هي ال corporate rates ضرب
+
+279
+00:21:47,900 --> 00:21:51,320
+الألف دولار ال bar value اخدوا اللي هو عندكم
+
+280
+00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,250
+تمانية في المية ضرب الف كام؟تمانين دولار اه
+
+281
+00:21:54,250 --> 00:21:58,930
+فهياخدوا تمانين دولار قانى و لا هادى اذا كانت سيمي
+
+282
+00:21:58,930 --> 00:22:03,650
+قانى و لا هاياخدوا اربعين دولار كل ست شهور تنزل في
+
+283
+00:22:03,650 --> 00:22:09,170
+حسابهم في البنك طيب
+
+284
+00:22:09,170 --> 00:22:15,630
+بعد هيك هيصير بال
+
+285
+00:22:15,630 --> 00:22:18,470
+الفين و تلاتة و عشر عشر هيصير هذا كل سنة هيصير اه
+
+286
+00:22:24,360 --> 00:22:33,600
+هذا السهم 8% دفعنا لل industry السهم هذا هذول
+
+287
+00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,080
+اللي بندفعه هذول الفلوس هندفعه من خلال ال dealer
+
+288
+00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,960
+يعني فيه برنامج وسيط يعني ال medical هتدفع لل
+
+289
+00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,660
+dealer و ال dealer يروح يدفع لمين لل industry
+
+290
+00:22:47,550 --> 00:22:51,750
+طيب هذا .. هذا كل سنة هيصير في سنة الـ 2023 إيش
+
+291
+00:22:51,750 --> 00:22:54,750
+راح يصير؟ في واحة وتلاتين واطمعاش تلاتة وعشرين إيش
+
+292
+00:22:54,750 --> 00:23:00,090
+راح يصير؟ اللي هو إيش بيسميه matured to date؟ إيش
+
+293
+00:23:00,090 --> 00:23:07,810
+راح يصير في تاريخ الاستحقاق؟ أه؟ مين اللي هيحصل؟
+
+294
+00:23:07,810 --> 00:23:11,970
+حامل السند، بالضبط حامل السند حامل السند في سنة ال
+
+295
+00:23:11,970 --> 00:23:15,590
+2023 وواحدة تلاتين واطمعاش هتروح الشركة تدفعله
+
+296
+00:23:15,590 --> 00:23:20,310
+قيمة السند بالكاملاللي هي كام؟ اللي هو الألف دولار
+
+297
+00:23:20,310 --> 00:23:23,990
+طبعا ألف دولار ضال بالخمسمية اللي هو بيصير خمسمية
+
+298
+00:23:23,990 --> 00:23:30,570
+خمسمية ألف طبعا يعني بالمجموع لو طلعته المجموع هان
+
+299
+00:23:30,570 --> 00:23:35,310
+بالمجموع ال investor هيحصل عشان أو تان هياخد اللي
+
+300
+00:23:35,310 --> 00:23:41,730
+هو ال coupon rate و ال principal ايش ال principal
+
+301
+00:23:41,730 --> 00:23:46,470
+معناها؟أيوة بالظبط المصاري الأصليين اللي دفعوا
+
+302
+00:23:46,470 --> 00:23:53,550
+الألف دولار هياخد هاتين تان واحد تان لأ
+
+303
+00:23:53,550 --> 00:23:57,030
+هذا في أنواع سندات مختلفة خلينا نراكز على المفهوم
+
+304
+00:23:57,030 --> 00:24:06,710
+واضح واضح ال chart هذا انو انت
+
+305
+00:24:06,710 --> 00:24:11,430
+تتبعي هذا طلع كام دفع هو اليوم ألف دولار دفعهم
+
+306
+00:24:11,430 --> 00:24:11,730
+اليوم
+
+307
+00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:22,600
+لأ 8% هذه فائدة بس ربح له بس أما الألف دولار اللي
+
+308
+00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:27,640
+هو المبلغ اللي أصلا دفعه في 2013 هياخده بال 2023
+
+309
+00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:32,260
+فاستفاد هو إيش؟ استفاد اللي هو 8% اللي هتيجيله كل
+
+310
+00:24:32,260 --> 00:24:38,380
+.. كل .. كل سنة هذا ال process تبع السند واضح
+
+311
+00:24:38,380 --> 00:24:43,530
+عندك؟ الجانب هذا البنات الوراأكيد البنات اللي جانب
+
+312
+00:24:43,530 --> 00:24:51,770
+هذا وضع عندكم سند أه هذا
+
+313
+00:24:51,770 --> 00:24:55,810
+كتير في أسلة متعلقة في ال .. في هذا الرسم يعني ال
+
+314
+00:24:55,810 --> 00:25:00,490
+investors إيش بيستفيد ال
+
+315
+00:25:00,490 --> 00:25:05,550
+principle الفائدة أساسا تمام؟
+
+316
+00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,520
+طب هذا بالنسبة للشركات هذه الشركات بتصدر سندات
+
+317
+00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,780
+بنفس الطريقة الحكومة بتصدر كمان سندات اللي احنا
+
+318
+00:25:18,780 --> 00:25:22,740
+هنبدأ فيها هذا اسمه corporate bonds هذا الكلام
+
+319
+00:25:22,740 --> 00:25:26,680
+الشرحناه اسمه corporate bonds اللي هو سندات
+
+320
+00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:36,240
+للشركات corporate بنفس
+
+321
+00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,540
+الطريقة احنا بنصدر الحكومة بتصدر ال government
+
+322
+00:25:39,540 --> 00:25:39,960
+bonds
+
+323
+00:25:46,610 --> 00:25:52,130
+و ال government bond فيه نوعين اذا هذا اللي شرحناه
+
+324
+00:25:52,130 --> 00:25:54,830
+اسمه corporate bonds اللي هو سندات الشركات الشركات
+
+325
+00:25:54,830 --> 00:25:58,710
+لما بدأت مايول مشاريعها تصدر corporate bonds اللي
+
+326
+00:25:58,710 --> 00:26:04,350
+هو سندات الشركات وبنفس الطريقة الحكومة بتصدر اللي
+
+327
+00:26:04,350 --> 00:26:11,070
+هو سندات الحكومة طب لأ السندات الحكومية بتختلف عن
+
+328
+00:26:11,070 --> 00:26:14,710
+ال treasury bills زي ما أنا حكت البنت انه السندات
+
+329
+00:26:14,710 --> 00:26:21,520
+الحكومية هي طويلة أجلإيش معلها طويلة أجل حكينا ال
+
+330
+00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,780
+treasury bills هي تمويل حكومي لكن قصير أجل ال
+
+331
+00:26:25,780 --> 00:26:29,800
+treasury notes صح اه ال treasury notes إذا كان
+
+332
+00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:35,220
+treasury notes و عنده treasury bonds في عنده نوعين
+
+333
+00:26:35,220 --> 00:26:40,180
+treasury notes ال government bonds بتقسمها نوعين
+
+334
+00:26:40,180 --> 00:26:46,660
+treasury notes و treasury bonds و في أنواع أخرى
+
+335
+00:26:46,660 --> 00:26:52,720
+متعلقةبطريقة غير مباشرة بال government bonds بس
+
+336
+00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,940
+هدول هما النوعين الرئيسيين اللي هو treasury notes
+
+337
+00:26:55,940 --> 00:27:01,900
+و ال treasury bonds في عندنا سندات أخرى مرتبطة
+
+338
+00:27:01,900 --> 00:27:07,840
+بطريقة غير مباشرة و هم عندنا مثلا اللي لهم ارتباط
+
+339
+00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,580
+غير مباشر اللي هو ال municipal bonds municipal
+
+340
+00:27:11,580 --> 00:27:16,100
+bonds عارفين إيش معنا municipal bonds اللي هو
+
+341
+00:27:16,100 --> 00:27:21,160
+سندات البلدياتيعني مثلا بلدية غزة بدت .. بدت تشري
+
+342
+00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,700
+جرفات و تشري أدوات و كذا طويلة أجال فبتصدر شغل
+
+343
+00:27:24,700 --> 00:27:29,840
+اسمه municipal bonds اللي هو سندات بلدية طبعا؟ طيب
+
+344
+00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:39,480
+في كمان عندنا شغل اسمه revenue bonds revenue سندات
+
+345
+00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:44,040
+بتولد عائد طبعا هذه برضه اللي هي علاقة بطريقة غير
+
+346
+00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:47,480
+مباشرة بالحكومة يعني الحكومة مثلا بتعمل مشروع
+
+347
+00:27:48,140 --> 00:27:52,300
+والمشروع هذا بيعطي عوائد حكومة مش شركة طب تصدر
+
+348
+00:27:52,300 --> 00:27:57,000
+شغلة اسمها revenue bond طب في كمان شغلة تالتة
+
+349
+00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:07,900
+اسمها industrial bonds اه سندات صناعية industrial
+
+350
+00:28:07,900 --> 00:28:13,880
+bonds سندات صناعية طبعا هذا كله موجود عندكم
+
+351
+00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,440
+بالكتاب بصفحه
+
+352
+00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:29,800
+بصفحة زي ما حكت هان صفحة اربعة و تلاتين و خمس و
+
+353
+00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:37,180
+تلاتين و صفحة ستة و تلاتين okay
+
+354
+00:28:37,180 --> 00:28:41,680
+طيب
+
+355
+00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,800
+هلا بالنسبة لل industrial bonds خليني بس نعطيكم
+
+356
+00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:49,840
+municipal هذا
+
+357
+00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,860
+هذا ال treasury notes اللي هو بيسموها سندات خزينة
+
+358
+00:28:55,860 --> 00:29:03,060
+هنيجي نحكي في التفصيل فيها سندات خزينة treasury
+
+359
+00:29:03,060 --> 00:29:09,300
+notes notes مش معناها notes الملاحظات لأ يعني
+
+360
+00:29:09,300 --> 00:29:16,760
+سندات خزينة و
+
+361
+00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,640
+هنيجي نفرق بينال treasury notes وال treasury bonds
+
+362
+00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,100
+يعني الفرق بين ال treasury notes وال treasury
+
+363
+00:29:23,100 --> 00:29:28,200
+bonds الفرق بسيط كتير بيناتهم هنيجي نحكي فيه زي ما
+
+364
+00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,900
+حكت هان اللي هو الفترة الزمنية خليني نرجع هان ال
+
+365
+00:29:31,900 --> 00:29:35,800
+corporate bonds حكيناها اللي هو الشركات تصدرهيعني
+
+366
+00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:40,040
+ال government bonds أو سندات الحكومة كتير فيها
+
+367
+00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,500
+شغلات يعني كتير فيها أنواع يعني ممكن نحكي عن
+
+368
+00:29:43,500 --> 00:29:47,000
+تلاتين اربعين خمسين نوع من أنواع سندات الحكومة بس
+
+369
+00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,300
+بدنا نحكي الشائع اللي هو treasury notes و treasury
+
+370
+00:29:49,300 --> 00:29:54,400
+bonds ال treasury notes اللي هي سندات تعتبر سندات
+
+371
+00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,960
+خزينة لكن طويلة أجل و treasury bonds سندات خزينة
+
+372
+00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:03,760
+أقل مش قصيرة أجل يعني أقل من ال treasury bondsأقل
+
+373
+00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:09,300
+من ال trigger notes يعني متوسطة okay هلأ في أنواع
+
+374
+00:30:09,300 --> 00:30:13,320
+أخرى اللي حكينا فيها انه هي ارتباطها ارتباط غير
+
+375
+00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:18,540
+مباشر مع الحكومة يعني بتم إصدارها من مؤسسات شبه
+
+376
+00:30:18,540 --> 00:30:24,200
+حكومية يعني زي مثلا البلديات لأ ال municipal bonds
+
+377
+00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,860
+اللي هو البلدية لما بدها تيجي تعمل توسع بدها تشتري
+
+378
+00:30:27,860 --> 00:30:33,780
+مثلا جرفات بتعمل مشاريع فبتستخدمأنواع من السندات
+
+379
+00:30:33,780 --> 00:30:37,740
+فى عندنا ال revenue bonds اللى هو سندات الإيرادات
+
+380
+00:30:37,740 --> 00:30:43,160
+يعني بدهم يعملوا مشاريع استثمارية okay فيعني مثلا
+
+381
+00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,740
+بدهم يعملوا شاطق البحر و لما بيعملوا شاطق البحر
+
+382
+00:30:46,740 --> 00:30:50,440
+هذا هيصير فى عواقد عليها فبروحوا بصدر البلدية
+
+383
+00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:54,970
+بتصدر شغل اسمه revenue bondsطيب بال industrial
+
+384
+00:30:54,970 --> 00:31:00,110
+bonds مثلا بيعملوا بناطق صناعية فبتروح الحكومة أو
+
+385
+00:31:00,110 --> 00:31:03,470
+البلدية بتروح تصدر اللي هو ال industrial bonds
+
+386
+00:31:03,470 --> 00:31:08,310
+يعني بحيث مولق و يعملوا تشجيع للصناعة البنية
+
+387
+00:31:08,310 --> 00:31:11,590
+التحتية في الصناعة فهذه الأنواع اللي ممكن نحكي
+
+388
+00:31:11,590 --> 00:31:13,730
+فيها بال government bonds
+
+389
+00:31:17,410 --> 00:31:20,470
+Okay مش هنحكي كتير بال inflation protected
+
+390
+00:31:20,470 --> 00:31:23,210
+treasury bonds و مش هنحكي بال federal agency debts
+
+391
+00:31:23,210 --> 00:31:27,470
+يعني احنا هنركز في treasury notes and bonds okay
+
+392
+00:31:27,470 --> 00:31:33,130
+تركيزنا هيكون على treasury notes and bonds و هنحكي
+
+393
+00:31:33,130 --> 00:31:36,810
+شوية بال international bonds ال municipal bonds
+
+394
+00:31:36,810 --> 00:31:42,110
+حكيناها كويه هل هو السندات اللي تصدرها البلدية
+
+395
+00:31:43,230 --> 00:31:46,250
+طبعا؟ يعني زي مثلا بلدية شيكاجو مثلا، بلدية
+
+396
+00:31:46,250 --> 00:31:49,730
+نيويورك، بلدية لندن مثلا، زي بلدية غزة مثلا ممكن
+
+397
+00:31:49,730 --> 00:31:55,870
+تصدر، فهذه البلديات بدل ما هي تروح ت .. يعني مثلا
+
+398
+00:31:55,870 --> 00:32:03,110
+بتحصل على إعانات ومساعدات فتروح تصدر سنادات okay
+
+399
+00:32:03,110 --> 00:32:08,770
+طيب هلأ نيجي نحكي عن treasury notes and bonds هلو
+
+400
+00:32:08,770 --> 00:32:13,880
+نرجع ل treasury notes و treasury bondsتطلعوا على
+
+401
+00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,620
+ال treasury notes ال treasury notes up to ten
+
+402
+00:32:17,620 --> 00:32:24,180
+years أكتر من عشرة سنوات ال treasury bonds هي
+
+403
+00:32:24,180 --> 00:32:28,780
+matured from ten to thirty بس نصلح لك هنا ال
+
+404
+00:32:28,780 --> 00:32:32,860
+treasury bonds بتكون
+
+405
+00:32:32,860 --> 00:32:37,450
+فترة زمنية أطول من ال treasury notesأه يعني الفترة
+
+406
+00:32:37,450 --> 00:32:40,270
+الزمنية تلعب ال treasury notes هي عشر سنوات ten
+
+407
+00:32:40,270 --> 00:32:43,730
+years بينما ال treasury bonds هي بتمتد من عشر على
+
+408
+00:32:43,730 --> 00:32:48,730
+تلاتين سنة يعني ال notes اللي .. ايه بالظبط ال
+
+409
+00:32:48,730 --> 00:32:53,010
+notes treasury notes بس
+
+410
+00:32:53,010 --> 00:32:55,790
+هذا لا يعني أن ال bonds لها تم إصدارها بعشر سنوات
+
+411
+00:32:55,790 --> 00:32:59,750
+يعني هنا ال confusing بيصير أن ال treasury notes
+
+412
+00:32:59,750 --> 00:33:02,430
+ممكن تكون عشر سنوات و ال treasury bonds ممكن تكون
+
+413
+00:33:02,430 --> 00:33:05,820
+عشر سنواتلكن في إمكانية احنا ال treasury bonds
+
+414
+00:33:05,820 --> 00:33:09,840
+نصدرها أكتر من عشر سنوات لعشرين و تلاتين سنة زي
+
+415
+00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:15,320
+مثلا بدي أصدر .. بدي أصدر سندات لإنشاء مناطق
+
+416
+00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:21,360
+صناعية بالزمن مثلا عشرين و تلاتين سنة okay؟ بدي
+
+417
+00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:25,460
+أطور مثلا مناطق سياحية مثلا في .. في قطاع غزة أو
+
+418
+00:33:25,460 --> 00:33:28,420
+في .. في أي مكان في العالم فبيحتاج انه أكتر من عشر
+
+419
+00:33:28,420 --> 00:33:33,240
+سنواتOkay هذا الفرق اللى ممكن نحصل عليه بال
+
+420
+00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,740
+treasury notes و treasury bonds فرق تانى هنحكي فيه
+
+421
+00:33:36,740 --> 00:33:42,260
+كمان اللى هو ال taxable و ال non taxable انه فيه
+
+422
+00:33:42,260 --> 00:33:45,580
+عندنا سندات عشان اشجع انا المواطنين يشتريوا سندات
+
+423
+00:33:45,580 --> 00:33:51,000
+فممكن انا اعفيها من الضريبة عشان اشجع المواطن
+
+424
+00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,800
+يشتري او الشركات تشتري السندات فممكن اعفيها من
+
+425
+00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:59,460
+الضريبةطبعا هنحكي عن هذه الأنواع من السلدات اللي
+
+426
+00:33:59,460 --> 00:34:03,140
+ممكن احنا نعفيها من الضريبة اذا عندنا فارقين
+
+427
+00:34:03,140 --> 00:34:07,660
+الفارق الأساسي انه الفترة الزمنية و الفارق التاني
+
+428
+00:34:07,660 --> 00:34:10,640
+اذا كان taxable او non-taxable taxable يعني عليه
+
+429
+00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:14,760
+ضريبة non-taxable ماعليهوش ضريبة او مش معفي من
+
+430
+00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:18,940
+الضريبة عادة زي ما احنا شرحنا ال bar value بتكون
+
+431
+00:34:18,940 --> 00:34:23,330
+الف دولاربشكل عام السندات كلها سواء كانت corporate
+
+432
+00:34:23,330 --> 00:34:27,930
+bonds ولا كانت government bonds بتصدر في الف دولار
+
+433
+00:34:27,930 --> 00:34:30,870
+as a bar value طب خلينا نذكركم ال treasury bills
+
+434
+00:34:30,870 --> 00:34:34,370
+ايش ال bar value تبعتها عشر تلاف فإذا احنا ما
+
+435
+00:34:34,370 --> 00:34:37,930
+حكينالكم مش مثلا ال treasury bill هتعرفوا by
+
+436
+00:34:37,930 --> 00:34:43,180
+default ان ال treasury notesعفوا ال treasury bills
+
+437
+00:34:43,180 --> 00:34:47,040
+عشر تلاف و في ال money market أقل من سنة لكن ال
+
+438
+00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:49,340
+treasury notes و ال .. و ال government bonds و ال
+
+439
+00:34:49,340 --> 00:34:52,440
+corporate bonds هي one thousand دولار، الف دولار
+
+440
+00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:56,060
+هدول
+
+441
+00:34:56,060 --> 00:34:59,620
+لأ هدول مش money markets لأ ال money market
+
+442
+00:34:59,620 --> 00:35:03,490
+خلصناهمOkay ال money markets اللي هو ال commercial
+
+443
+00:35:03,490 --> 00:35:07,170
+paper و ال bankers acceptance و ال .. و ال
+
+444
+00:35:07,170 --> 00:35:13,530
+treasury bills و .. و ال CDs okay حكينا لكوا كمان
+
+445
+00:35:13,530 --> 00:35:16,610
+بال .. ال interest ممكن paid semiannually or
+
+446
+00:35:16,610 --> 00:35:21,190
+annually ممكن ندفعها annually or semiannual يعني
+
+447
+00:35:21,190 --> 00:35:26,960
+سنويا أو نصف سنويانجي على ال quota، ايش ال quota؟
+
+448
+00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,840
+طريقة التسعير، حكينالكم ب treasury notes، ال
+
+449
+00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:35,240
+treasury bills، حكينا التسعير كيف بتم؟ كيف طريقة
+
+450
+00:35:35,240 --> 00:35:39,460
+التسعير بالتم؟ بال treasury bills، التسعير اللي
+
+451
+00:35:39,460 --> 00:35:44,400
+أعطيتكواياه في واجب، كيف طريقة التسعير؟ نسبة خاصة
+
+452
+00:35:46,390 --> 00:35:51,430
+percentage طبعا بالطريقة التسعير في ال corporate
+
+453
+00:35:51,430 --> 00:35:55,650
+bonds و بال government bonds بتختلف عن treasury
+
+454
+00:35:55,650 --> 00:36:02,510
+bills بتختلف بس بشغلة واحدة ان الأسعار المعرضة هي
+
+455
+00:36:02,510 --> 00:36:06,430
+as a percentage ايش يعني as a percentage لو احنا
+
+456
+00:36:06,430 --> 00:36:10,110
+فاكرين أخدنا ال bid و ال ask okay
+
+457
+00:36:12,500 --> 00:36:16,400
+يعني دقيقة بس دقيقة بس ال bid و ال ask ال bid و ال
+
+458
+00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:20,120
+ask في حالة ال corporate bonds و ال government
+
+459
+00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,860
+bonds بتعرض كنسبة مقوية من ال bar value مثلا لو
+
+460
+00:36:23,860 --> 00:36:30,400
+قلت 102 ايش يعني 102 يعني 102 في المية من قيمة ال
+
+461
+00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:35,220
+bar value يعني 102 في المية ضد ال bar value الألف
+
+462
+00:36:35,220 --> 00:36:43,450
+اللي هي بتطلع كام ألف و عشريناضرب 102% ضرب ال 1000
+
+463
+00:36:43,450 --> 00:36:50,750
+شوف كده تطلع معاكم كام تطلع؟ طبعا فاللي احنا نريج
+
+464
+00:36:50,750 --> 00:36:57,550
+ال ask نفس الشغلاء ال ask لو كان 103 103% من ضرب
+
+465
+00:36:57,550 --> 00:37:02,290
+ال bar value 103% ضرب ال bar value ابنجف عند هذه
+
+466
+00:37:02,290 --> 00:37:08,070
+النقطة عشان اللقاء اللي جاي لنشوف كيف نسعراللي هو
+
+467
+00:37:08,070 --> 00:37:11,370
+ال bonds وكمل على هذا الموضوع، في حد عنده سؤال؟
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/p_HS3Q1jsnI_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/p_HS3Q1jsnI_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..427cb088d713f871b3c7b21e65672d3dcc1300ae
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/p_HS3Q1jsnI_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1656 @@
+1
+00:00:21,630 --> 00:00:26,970
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة الفاتتة احنا كنا نحكي
+
+2
+00:00:26,970 --> 00:00:32,870
+عن ال margin الشغل بالهامش انا هعيد الموضوع مع
+
+3
+00:00:32,870 --> 00:00:37,130
+إعطاء mathematical example
+
+4
+00:00:37,130 --> 00:00:43,790
+مع إعطاء أمثلة بحب أذكر أنه نهاية الشهر هو بيخلص
+
+5
+00:00:43,790 --> 00:00:48,080
+ال ..الفترة ال feedback لل assignments بتاعتكم فإن
+
+6
+00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:53,540
+انتوا حاولوا تخلص ال feedback تبعية ال assignment
+
+7
+00:00:53,540 --> 00:01:00,340
+اذا في يعني طالبات يعني مثلا انضغطوا انا ممكن يعني
+
+8
+00:01:00,340 --> 00:01:05,800
+اعطي فرصة كمان اسبوع ممكن اعطي فرصة خليني بس اكمل
+
+9
+00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:09,740
+احكي انا ه .. هعطي فرصة لمدة اسبوع بعد ال .. بعد
+
+10
+00:01:09,740 --> 00:01:12,700
+الامتحانات بعد انتهاء الامتحانات بعد هيك مش ه ..
+
+11
+00:01:13,570 --> 00:01:16,470
+ماشي بعطيكوا اسموع بعد الامتحانات بعد اسموع واحد
+
+12
+00:01:16,470 --> 00:01:22,610
+بعد انتهاء الامتحانات okay okay لكن ماتعملوش delay
+
+13
+00:01:22,610 --> 00:01:30,010
+حتى نهاية الفصل okay نرجع و نحكي بال .. بال margin
+
+14
+00:01:30,010 --> 00:01:35,670
+اذا انتوا كنتوا تابعوا معايا في صفحة 76 في الكتاب
+
+15
+00:01:35,670 --> 00:01:41,270
+76 77 ناخد مثال احنا
+
+16
+00:01:41,270 --> 00:01:42,390
+حكينا ال .. ال margin
+
+17
+00:01:45,990 --> 00:01:51,430
+intermal معناه حكينا احنا ال .. ال margin ان ال ..
+
+18
+00:01:51,430 --> 00:01:56,130
+ال investors open account of the .. the broker and
+
+19
+00:01:56,130 --> 00:01:59,610
+a portion of his account is funded by the investor
+
+20
+00:01:59,610 --> 00:02:03,090
+and the rest is funded by the broker يعني جزء من
+
+21
+00:02:03,090 --> 00:02:08,230
+الاستثمار بتم تغطيته من المستثمر و الجزء المتبقي
+
+22
+00:02:08,230 --> 00:02:14,590
+بتم تغطيته من ال .. ال dealer فنسبة مساهمة ال
+
+23
+00:02:14,590 --> 00:02:20,680
+investorلل total wealth لقيمة الثروة هو بيعتبر ال
+
+24
+00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,600
+margin يعني لو احنا أخدنا مثال مثال بسيط زي ما هو
+
+25
+00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:28,880
+موجود عندكم بالكتاب لو
+
+26
+00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,280
+حكينا مثلا ال assets ال assets معناها قيمة
+
+27
+00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:37,960
+الاستثمار we started by ten thousandsال $10,000
+
+28
+00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:42,620
+دولار اللى هو زى ما كان مرفعته مائة دولار ال price
+
+29
+00:02:42,620 --> 00:02:48,600
+of the stock times one hundred dollar the number
+
+30
+00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:55,640
+of shares يعني المستثمر اشترى مائة سهم اشترى
+
+31
+00:02:55,640 --> 00:03:01,940
+مائة سهم خليني اوضحهم عندنا ال price one hundred
+
+32
+00:03:02,940 --> 00:03:07,940
+number of shares is one hundred so the asset is
+
+33
+00:03:07,940 --> 00:03:16,680
+this times this one hundred ten
+
+34
+00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:17,240
+thousands
+
+35
+00:03:23,410 --> 00:03:29,130
+هذا مستثمر راح يشتري أسهم okay انتبه باسمعنا عن
+
+36
+00:03:29,130 --> 00:03:33,810
+المثال مستثمر راح اشترق مية سهم number of shares
+
+37
+00:03:33,810 --> 00:03:37,330
+one hundred shares the price at one hundred dollar
+
+38
+00:03:37,330 --> 00:03:41,530
+so the asset is ten thousands لأنه ضربنا المية
+
+39
+00:03:41,530 --> 00:03:46,910
+دولار في المية سهم قيمة الاستثمار فضروري تكون
+
+40
+00:03:46,910 --> 00:03:51,220
+معاكم لقلاقة الحاسوب عشان تتبعوا معاياطيب هلا اللي
+
+41
+00:03:51,220 --> 00:03:56,540
+صار حكينا أنه the investors open a margin account
+
+42
+00:03:56,540 --> 00:04:02,700
+okay of the ten thousand he borrowed four
+
+43
+00:04:02,700 --> 00:04:06,700
+thousands okay
+
+44
+00:04:06,700 --> 00:04:16,300
+he borrows by loans و اقترد four thousands and the
+
+45
+00:04:16,300 --> 00:04:20,280
+rest is paid by himselfوالباقي كم؟ six thousands
+
+46
+00:04:20,280 --> 00:04:26,040
+equity is paid by them by him so the margin now
+
+47
+00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:32,180
+the margin as we explain the margin is the
+
+48
+00:04:32,180 --> 00:04:38,140
+percentage of the contribution of the investors to
+
+49
+00:04:38,140 --> 00:04:41,930
+the total wealth or to the total assetsيعني
+
+50
+00:04:41,930 --> 00:04:45,810
+بالعربي أنه هي قيمة ال contribution اللي هو
+
+51
+00:04:45,810 --> 00:04:49,370
+المساهمة بتاعة ال investor على قيمة الاستثمار الكل
+
+52
+00:04:49,370 --> 00:04:56,230
+هاي بيسميها إيش ال margin ال margin واضح حكيناها
+
+53
+00:04:56,230 --> 00:05:00,010
+المرة ثلاثة فبسير
+
+54
+00:05:00,010 --> 00:05:04,090
+ال margin اللي هي كام مساهمة ال investors ست آلاف
+
+55
+00:05:04,090 --> 00:05:08,290
+ست آلاف so six thousands divided by ten thousands
+
+56
+00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:20,060
+so it is sixty percent is it right okay لحد
+
+57
+00:05:20,060 --> 00:05:25,020
+اللحظة تكون فاهم يعني so
+
+58
+00:05:25,020 --> 00:05:28,720
+the sixty percent خلينا نفترض أنه the prices is
+
+59
+00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:33,420
+going down احنا بنحاول أنه ناخد the worst case أنه
+
+60
+00:05:33,420 --> 00:05:38,630
+أسوأ الظروف when the prices go downthe margin is
+
+61
+00:05:38,630 --> 00:05:41,850
+also go down كمان ال margin بنزل خلينا نشوف ال
+
+62
+00:05:41,850 --> 00:05:44,810
+price one hundred خلينا نخليها تسمينين eighty
+
+63
+00:05:44,810 --> 00:05:48,250
+hundred .. eighty dollar the price was one hundred
+
+64
+00:05:48,250 --> 00:05:50,810
+and now is eighty dollar so the price is going
+
+65
+00:05:50,810 --> 00:05:55,090
+down the number of shares so the assets how much
+
+66
+00:05:56,420 --> 00:06:00,700
+أنت دايش ال assets eight thousands right of them
+
+67
+00:06:00,700 --> 00:06:04,160
+four thousands لون القروي ال violate لإنه احنا
+
+68
+00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:08,120
+مااخد قرض من ال .. and the rest is four thousands
+
+69
+00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:17,840
+so what is the margin now احنا
+
+70
+00:06:17,840 --> 00:06:20,560
+المرة الفاترة احنا حاكينا الكلام هذا بس يعني I'm
+
+71
+00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:26,330
+just repeating this احنا ال price تمانين دولاروعدد
+
+72
+00:06:26,330 --> 00:06:29,030
+الأسهم يشتراهم 100 دولار مابتغيروش مين اللي بتغير
+
+73
+00:06:29,030 --> 00:06:34,670
+بس ال price يا ال price يا بنزل يا بطلع ماعليش أيث
+
+74
+00:06:34,670 --> 00:06:37,830
+.. هيأثر .. هيأثر على ال assets و هيأثر على ال
+
+75
+00:06:37,830 --> 00:06:41,830
+equity و هيأثر على ال margin طبعا ارجع لتعريف
+
+76
+00:06:41,830 --> 00:06:44,410
+المحاضرة الفاترة ال margin هو نسبة مساهمة ال
+
+77
+00:06:44,410 --> 00:06:48,950
+investor على ال total wealth طيب هلأ قداش ال
+
+78
+00:06:48,950 --> 00:06:54,110
+margin ال margin fifty percentمن وين جيبناها
+
+79
+00:06:54,110 --> 00:06:59,230
+البنات اللي .. اللي هي ال 4000 بتاعة ال loan ال
+
+80
+00:06:59,230 --> 00:07:02,470
+4000 بتاعة ال equity على ال 8000 بتاعة ال assets
+
+81
+00:07:02,470 --> 00:07:09,450
+نروح كمان السعر النزل و أكتر من هيك 70$ شو أنتوا
+
+82
+00:07:09,450 --> 00:07:14,110
+بتلاحظوا بال .. بال equity ان واحد الزنا بيخسر
+
+83
+00:07:14,110 --> 00:07:20,690
+أداش خسر من .. من لما نزل .. 2000$ خسر طب هلأ أروح
+
+84
+00:07:20,690 --> 00:07:25,620
+كمانقداش حيصير هون seven thousands and here three
+
+85
+00:07:25,620 --> 00:07:31,740
+thousands and here is four thousands and now اه
+
+86
+00:07:31,740 --> 00:07:37,160
+sorry yes so here four thousands and three
+
+87
+00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:41,380
+thousands forty
+
+88
+00:07:41,380 --> 00:07:49,860
+three percent طب ايش احنا بنلاحظ طلعوا بنلاحظ
+
+89
+00:07:49,860 --> 00:07:56,420
+احناإنه اللي صار .. صار إن ال equity صارت تلات
+
+90
+00:07:56,420 --> 00:08:02,120
+تلات فصار خسر تقريبا نص .. نص المبلغ تبعه يعني
+
+91
+00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,780
+خمسية فالمية من ثروة تبع ال investor راحت طب خليني
+
+92
+00:08:05,780 --> 00:08:09,960
+أنا أخد الأسوأ الظروف نضلنا ماشيين نشوف إيش .. إيش
+
+93
+00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,980
+اللي بيصير مع ال .. مع ال broker if the broker is
+
+94
+00:08:12,980 --> 00:08:17,460
+irrational عقلاني إذا غير .. irrational غير عقلاني
+
+95
+00:08:17,460 --> 00:08:19,740
+إذا كان ال investor .. ال broker .. أه؟
+
+96
+00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:28,280
+أه أه بس أنا بدي أخد .. بدي أخد أسوأ الظروف and
+
+97
+00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,500
+considering that the investor is .. and
+
+98
+00:08:31,500 --> 00:08:34,460
+considering that the investor .. the .. the dealer
+
+99
+00:08:34,460 --> 00:08:37,200
+or the broker is irrational عشان to understand
+
+100
+00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:40,480
+يعني خلينا نحكي أن هو irrational و شو هيصير
+
+101
+00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:44,540
+بالاسمار تبعه إذا هو ماعملش maintenance اتذكروا
+
+102
+00:08:44,540 --> 00:08:48,660
+كلمة maintenance اه maintenance اتذكروها عشان ..
+
+103
+00:08:53,900 --> 00:09:00,800
+Okay طيب اللي راح ال price نزل نفترض نزل خمسين
+
+104
+00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:07,940
+دولار مية بيصير five thousands هو بيصير four
+
+105
+00:09:07,940 --> 00:09:13,600
+thousands one thousand and twenty percent okay
+
+106
+00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:19,940
+let's go خلينا كمان to make things worse than this
+
+107
+00:09:21,060 --> 00:09:24,580
+Okay so هي 40 دولار شوفوا ال price نزل 40 دولار
+
+108
+00:09:24,580 --> 00:09:29,700
+one hundred four thousands now four thousands zero
+
+109
+00:09:29,700 --> 00:09:35,680
+zero percent طب what is the next step؟ شو هيصير لو
+
+110
+00:09:35,680 --> 00:09:38,800
+ضلوا مستمر؟ ال broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال
+
+111
+00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,460
+broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال
+
+112
+00:09:41,460 --> 00:09:42,220
+broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال
+
+113
+00:09:42,220 --> 00:09:42,460
+broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال
+
+114
+00:09:42,460 --> 00:09:42,480
+broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال
+
+115
+00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:42,540
+broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال
+
+116
+00:09:42,540 --> 00:09:45,060
+broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال broker يخسر، ال
+
+117
+00:09:45,060 --> 00:09:51,740
+broker يخسر، ال broker يخسرthe .. the investor
+
+118
+00:09:51,740 --> 00:09:58,700
+lose all of his money خسر كل فلوسه okay if the
+
+119
+00:09:58,700 --> 00:10:03,260
+broker continues or if the investor continues
+
+120
+00:10:03,260 --> 00:10:08,660
+trading on his account it means the .. the lose
+
+121
+00:10:08,660 --> 00:10:13,650
+will leak leak يعني تتسربو ال leak to the broker
+
+122
+00:10:13,650 --> 00:10:18,090
+accounts يعني إذا ضالوا المستثمر يتاجر الخسائر
+
+123
+00:10:18,090 --> 00:10:23,190
+هتتسرب ل .. لل broker be careful we are
+
+124
+00:10:23,190 --> 00:10:26,570
+considering that the broker is irrational ال
+
+125
+00:10:26,570 --> 00:10:37,110
+broker إسمه يعني إرشمال يعني مش عقلية and
+
+126
+00:10:37,110 --> 00:10:38,710
+the number of shares in 100
+
+127
+00:10:45,850 --> 00:10:52,650
+of one thousand minus but this one minus one
+
+128
+00:10:52,650 --> 00:10:58,870
+thousand is the value of the brokerage which is if
+
+129
+00:10:58,870 --> 00:11:01,150
+you subtract four thousand minus one thousand the
+
+130
+00:11:01,150 --> 00:11:05,310
+brokerage now will decrease so the broker loses a
+
+131
+00:11:05,310 --> 00:11:09,690
+thousand one thousand okay now the .. the margin
+
+132
+00:11:09,690 --> 00:11:12,050
+is .. is
+
+133
+00:11:14,630 --> 00:11:21,450
+33% في كل مادة مادة مادة مادة مادة مادة مادة مادة
+
+134
+00:11:21,450 --> 00:11:39,490
+مادة مادة مادة مادة مادة مادة
+
+135
+00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:04,220
+So now this is the case, this is why in the
+
+136
+00:12:04,220 --> 00:12:08,280
+financial markets they ask the broker to book
+
+137
+00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:09,600
+later
+
+138
+00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:44,000
+عندنا خمسين فمية مواطن قصارى ثلاثة و اتنين، معناه
+
+139
+00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:49,540
+ان الفيسبوك سيحصل تقريبا خمسين فمية من طوا ثلاثة و
+
+140
+00:12:49,540 --> 00:12:54,680
+اتنين، بعدين سيحصل تقريبا تقريبا ثلاثة و أتنين زي
+
+141
+00:12:54,680 --> 00:13:00,320
+التوقف، مع ان في مرحلة المرحلة سيأتي التوقف
+
+142
+00:13:03,300 --> 00:13:10,580
+كيف خسر 50%؟ كيف خسر 50%؟ من خمسين لتلاتة وقريب من
+
+143
+00:13:10,580 --> 00:13:11,280
+خمسين تلاتة وقريب من خمسين تلاتة وقريب من خمسين
+
+144
+00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,180
+تلاتة وقريب من خمسين تلاتة وقريب من خمسين تلاتة
+
+145
+00:13:13,180 --> 00:13:15,240
+وقريب من خمسين تلاتة وقريب من خمسين تلاتة وقريب من
+
+146
+00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:16,520
+خمسين تلاتة وقريب من خمسين تلاتة وقريب من خمسين
+
+147
+00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:19,320
+تلاتة وقريب من خمسين تلاتة وقريب من خمسين تلاتة
+
+148
+00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:21,980
+وقريب من خمسين تلاتة وقريب من خمسين تلاتة وقريب من
+
+149
+00:13:21,980 --> 00:13:29,100
+خمسين تلاتة وقري
+
+150
+00:13:42,420 --> 00:13:48,240
+الفلوسة يمشي حسب السبب كمان لفلوسه لفوق. So at a
+
+151
+00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,160
+particular time, at a particular price
+
+152
+00:14:10,630 --> 00:14:13,410
+what it means بيه انت ناس معجن هارد و أربع يزيد
+
+153
+00:14:13,410 --> 00:14:16,430
+الفلوس يعني to add cash هيضيف cash يزيد الفلوس
+
+154
+00:14:16,430 --> 00:14:19,410
+تجيب الفلوس و هتضيف عارف ما اختلعت و to protect
+
+155
+00:14:19,410 --> 00:14:24,330
+his account otherwise .. otherwise يعني إذا أنا
+
+156
+00:14:24,330 --> 00:14:27,290
+صوّعش ال investors if the investors didn't listen
+
+157
+00:14:27,290 --> 00:14:32,990
+to the brokers in this case the broker has a right
+
+158
+00:14:32,990 --> 00:14:40,130
+to close his account or to sell off his position
+
+159
+00:14:44,420 --> 00:14:48,820
+هذا اللي انا بحكيه فيها يبسطه من الانتصار، يعني
+
+160
+00:14:48,820 --> 00:14:56,920
+لإيجاد الصيانة لازم يكون يعني معروف، كيف نحصل؟
+
+161
+00:14:56,920 --> 00:15:02,000
+خلّينا احنا طريقة حسب الماضي و نتور منها في نفس
+
+162
+00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:02,720
+طريقة الحسب الماضي
+
+163
+00:15:07,430 --> 00:15:10,410
+طبعا كم ساعة؟ طبعا كم ساعة؟ طبعا كم ساعة؟ طبعا كم
+
+164
+00:15:10,410 --> 00:15:35,010
+ساعة؟ طبعا كم ساعة؟ طبعا كم ساعة؟ طبعا كم ساعة؟
+
+165
+00:15:40,950 --> 00:15:44,950
+عشان نحسب ال margin هذا اللي احنا صممناه سابقا
+
+166
+00:15:44,950 --> 00:15:50,770
+فصدر 4 كده كل مرة طيب اللي اشد اللي احنا صارفه ان
+
+167
+00:15:50,770 --> 00:15:58,230
+في 100P 100 اللي هي أمرا و شاز دي مش معروف مارفس
+
+168
+00:15:58,230 --> 00:16:04,610
+اللي بقول انه 4 كده صح؟ اللي احنا اتطلبناه اغير لأ
+
+169
+00:16:04,610 --> 00:16:08,310
+لأ تفسير
+
+170
+00:16:08,940 --> 00:16:17,840
+اللي هو D بمية و B is the maintenance margin طب
+
+171
+00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:22,100
+الحالة هاللي تانية ميش مارجن او support ال
+
+172
+00:16:22,100 --> 00:16:26,200
+maintenance margin تصلق
+
+173
+00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,500
+هذا البرنامج اذا انا قطعتكم ال maintenance margin
+
+174
+00:16:29,500 --> 00:16:33,680
+كام يعني اجيال حكاية ال maintenance margin بساوي
+
+175
+00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:39,920
+قرر ان ال maintenance margin يساوي 30%يعني ال
+
+176
+00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:43,600
+maintenance margin تلاتين في المية يعني عن تلاتين
+
+177
+00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,840
+في المية طبعا هو هان خمسين اربعين عن تلاتين في
+
+178
+00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:51,460
+المية هان هيوقف ايش ال investment تبعه طبعا عنده
+
+179
+00:16:51,460 --> 00:16:55,260
+two option يا اما بجيب فلوس يا اما بسكله الحساب
+
+180
+00:16:55,260 --> 00:16:58,520
+هذا معناه ال maintenance margin طبعا انا بتبقى
+
+181
+00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:04,050
+عارف ال price كل اشي انا معروف عنده هانبس معادل ال
+
+182
+00:17:04,050 --> 00:17:07,110
+price مش معروف فإذا أنا عرفت ال price و كام لازم
+
+183
+00:17:07,110 --> 00:17:14,070
+واقفه فبتنحل المشكلة فهنا 30% انتبهوا معانا طبعا
+
+184
+00:17:14,070 --> 00:17:20,850
+طبعا هذه رياضية بسيطة بتصير خليكم
+
+185
+00:17:20,850 --> 00:17:28,910
+معانا فضرب تبادل يطلع 100 100P في .. okay يطلع
+
+186
+00:17:28,910 --> 00:17:29,390
+كام؟
+
+187
+00:17:36,630 --> 00:17:41,630
+نقص من 4000 طبعا متأكدين ان ال maintenance margin
+
+188
+00:17:41,630 --> 00:17:50,290
+30% ال 30% ممن جبناها موجودة
+
+189
+00:17:50,290 --> 00:17:57,970
+في السؤال okay 30% طبعا بنحل احنا الموضوع ال 100B
+
+190
+00:17:57,970 --> 00:18:08,940
+من 30B بطلع 100B من .. عندنا ال .. كيف؟النية بي ..
+
+191
+00:18:08,940 --> 00:18:14,620
+لأ من .. طبعا هذه تلات .. تلاتين بي بتصير سبعين بي
+
+192
+00:18:14,620 --> 00:18:22,680
+okay بتساوي الأربع تلاف، مظبوط؟ وبعد هيك بتساوي
+
+193
+00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:30,460
+أربع تلاف تقسيم سبعين okay
+
+194
+00:18:34,580 --> 00:18:40,820
+طيب خلينا نشوف إيش الجواب تبعتهم 57 طيب بتلع
+
+195
+00:18:40,820 --> 00:18:46,660
+الجواب 57 اتطلعوا نرجع على ال .. نرجع على الحساب
+
+196
+00:18:46,660 --> 00:18:56,020
+تبعنا اتطلعوا على ال table طبعا السعر 70.50 بناتهم
+
+197
+00:18:56,020 --> 00:19:00,520
+هيكون هنا إيش يعملوا إيقاف لما يصل السعر على 57
+
+198
+00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:09,060
+هيعمله stop investment او يحكيله please add more
+
+199
+00:19:09,060 --> 00:19:15,760
+cash او اضف لنا cash طبعا
+
+200
+00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:28,020
+هذا هو ال maintenance margin طب انا اسألوني
+
+201
+00:19:28,020 --> 00:19:31,860
+اذا في حد عنده سؤال لأ لسه في احنا هنطور شوية في
+
+202
+00:19:31,860 --> 00:19:32,200
+السؤال
+
+203
+00:19:36,020 --> 00:19:54,960
+57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57
+
+204
+00:19:54,960 --> 00:20:04,260
+%
+
+205
+00:20:05,950 --> 00:20:15,290
+Okay فزي ما انتوا شايفين هان سبعة
+
+206
+00:20:15,290 --> 00:20:18,170
+و خمسين دولار فشوفتوا انتوا هان سبعة و خمسين دولار
+
+207
+00:20:18,170 --> 00:20:25,850
+اجت من ال ..ماشي
+
+208
+00:20:25,850 --> 00:20:28,290
+نعمل شوية تطوير على السؤال
+
+209
+00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:38,660
+بن .. السؤال بيحكي انه what is the price تبقى ل ..
+
+210
+00:20:38,660 --> 00:20:41,340
+this is a good question what .. what is the price
+
+211
+00:20:41,340 --> 00:20:47,680
+that the .. the dealer ask for maintenance ask for
+
+212
+00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,540
+maintenance for maintenance بتذكر ب chapter one
+
+213
+00:20:51,540 --> 00:20:55,520
+كنا نحكي بال broker call فاكرينه؟ اذا بترجعوا هذا
+
+214
+00:20:55,520 --> 00:21:00,500
+هو نفسه ال broker callفلما يصل عند .. طبعا هو مش
+
+215
+00:21:00,500 --> 00:21:04,680
+هيسأل .. مش هينتظر لما يصل سبعة و خمسين دولار، عند
+
+216
+00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,860
+ما يصل تمانية و خمسين، تسعة و خمسين فهو preparing
+
+217
+00:21:07,860 --> 00:21:13,760
+himself to call the investorهيحضر نفسه يتصل بال
+
+218
+00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,620
+investor be careful هيتصل فيه على ال mobile احكيله
+
+219
+00:21:16,620 --> 00:21:22,460
+okay be careful the price is now is 58 so if it
+
+220
+00:21:22,460 --> 00:21:28,560
+goes down 57 you may receive a margin call ايش a
+
+221
+00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:34,000
+margin call يعني حضر حالك اذا السعر الآن السعر 58
+
+222
+00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:38,280
+اذا السعر وصل ل 57 و اقل احنا هنتصل فيك and
+
+223
+00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:43,120
+prepare your cash حضر ال cash تبعتكthis is what
+
+224
+00:21:43,120 --> 00:21:49,500
+the dealer is doing when the price close to the
+
+225
+00:21:49,500 --> 00:21:54,040
+fifty seven هذا الكلان هيسوي ال dealer لما السعار
+
+226
+00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:57,740
+تقترب لل fifty seven فهو مش هو not waiting until
+
+227
+00:21:57,740 --> 00:22:00,780
+the price is hit you know what means hit, hit يعني
+
+228
+00:22:00,780 --> 00:22:05,760
+تضرب بال fifty sevenjust one tick لما بحكي tick
+
+229
+00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:10,760
+يعني one tick before the fifty seven he may call
+
+230
+00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:16,840
+the investor one tick يعني مش بيسموها تك واحدة ال
+
+231
+00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:22,420
+prices لما بتعمل jump بتعمل jump by tick كل tick
+
+232
+00:22:22,420 --> 00:22:28,470
+مثلا دولار واحدSo one tick before the price يعني
+
+233
+00:22:28,470 --> 00:22:33,290
+tick واحدة مش احنا مرات بنقول بال tick اه ال tick
+
+234
+00:22:33,290 --> 00:22:37,470
+هذه معناها اللي هو قفزة واحدة للسعر يعني مثلا من
+
+235
+00:22:37,470 --> 00:22:41,070
+سبعة و خمسين تمانية و خمسين this is one tick So if
+
+236
+00:22:41,070 --> 00:22:45,810
+the price close one tick to the fifty seven the
+
+237
+00:22:45,810 --> 00:22:49,830
+investor may receive a margin call to prepare his
+
+238
+00:22:49,830 --> 00:22:51,490
+or her cash okay
+
+239
+00:22:55,800 --> 00:23:00,360
+نجرب 40% شو هيصير ال price according to فاطمة if
+
+240
+00:23:00,360 --> 00:23:05,760
+the .. if the .. if the maintenance margin is 40%
+
+241
+00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:11,220
+تطلع يا هان وين تتوقع السعر هيصير؟ يعني أنت بتحكي
+
+242
+00:23:11,220 --> 00:23:17,060
+هان 40% صح؟ هتكون قريبة لل 70 خلينا لو نجرب بلاش
+
+243
+00:23:17,060 --> 00:23:22,060
+.. نجرب 45% ال 45% هيقلع السعر من هنا نجربوا على
+
+244
+00:23:22,060 --> 00:23:29,100
+40% تعالوا تشوفوانجرب على اربعين في المية okay دوق
+
+245
+00:23:29,100 --> 00:23:33,100
+.. دوق jump to the conclusion خلينا نشوف 40
+
+246
+00:23:33,100 --> 00:23:39,560
+percent طبعا بالحالة هيحصير اربعين P is equal one
+
+247
+00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:44,860
+hundred P minus forty thousands وبتساوي sixty P
+
+248
+00:23:44,860 --> 00:23:49,520
+four thousands وبالتالي P هتساوي four thousand
+
+249
+00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:56,160
+divided by sixtyبطلع ستة و ستين point فهيكون السعر
+
+250
+00:23:56,160 --> 00:24:05,720
+في المنطقة هذه okay that's it طيب احنا so far we
+
+251
+00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:09,080
+ignore the importance of the interest rate مظبوط
+
+252
+00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:13,720
+ولا لأ اتجاهلنا the rule of the interest rate now
+
+253
+00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,840
+in this example we will consider the importance of
+
+254
+00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:21,050
+interest rateهناخد بعين الاعتبار دور ال interest
+
+255
+00:24:21,050 --> 00:24:24,790
+rate عشان نحسب ال calculation of rate of return
+
+256
+00:24:24,790 --> 00:24:31,570
+طلعوا على المثال موجود في page 79 لو هذا ال
+
+257
+00:24:31,570 --> 00:24:37,070
+investor معايا؟
+
+258
+00:24:37,070 --> 00:24:42,470
+okay لو هذا ال investor he
+
+259
+00:24:42,470 --> 00:24:49,370
+borrowed 10,000$ لو اتدين 10,000$from the investor
+
+260
+00:24:49,370 --> 00:24:55,650
+from the broker and the rest is covered by himself
+
+261
+00:24:55,650 --> 00:25:03,550
+والباقي غطى بنفسه يعني
+
+262
+00:25:03,550 --> 00:25:08,450
+أشهر تلاف دولار يعني بالمثال الأول ال buy and come
+
+263
+00:25:08,450 --> 00:25:11,750
+four thousand but in this example he bought ten
+
+264
+00:25:11,750 --> 00:25:15,110
+thousands and the rest is covered by himself
+
+265
+00:25:16,070 --> 00:25:21,390
+والباقي غطى بنفسه يعنى بيكون هنا ال fifty percent
+
+266
+00:25:21,390 --> 00:25:25,570
+مظبوط بيكون ال margin هنا fifty percent لأنه عشر
+
+267
+00:25:25,570 --> 00:25:28,850
+تلاف منه وعشر تلاف من ال broker طيب بدنا ناخد
+
+268
+00:25:28,850 --> 00:25:32,550
+three scenarios بدنا ناخد ايش three scenarios
+
+269
+00:25:32,550 --> 00:25:36,850
+three scenarios يعني three options او three
+
+270
+00:25:36,850 --> 00:25:40,720
+probabilities بدنا نشوف السعر اذا طلعوالسعر
+
+271
+00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:44,520
+ماتغيرش if the prices go down so we have three
+
+272
+00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:48,380
+scenarios if the prices go up if unchanged if the
+
+273
+00:25:48,380 --> 00:25:52,800
+prices go down so and see to observe the changes
+
+274
+00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:58,340
+خليني أشوف ال changes بال .. طيب a change in the
+
+275
+00:25:58,340 --> 00:26:02,260
+price 30
+
+276
+00:26:02,260 --> 00:26:13,320
+% upيعني ارتفعت no change so it is zero so if it
+
+277
+00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:19,960
+is zero no change and thirty percent goes down
+
+278
+00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:29,180
+طريقة خيارات لتشوف ايش .. كيف بتأثر ال .. ال worth
+
+279
+00:26:29,180 --> 00:26:32,480
+تبع ال investors or retain on investments العادل
+
+280
+00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:36,880
+على الاستثمار في حالة ال .. الاسعار اتفقت في حالة
+
+281
+00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:42,280
+الأسعار ماتغيرتش في حالة الأسعار is going down طيب
+
+282
+00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:48,580
+نشوف مع نهاية السنة ال end of the year مع نهاية
+
+283
+00:26:48,580 --> 00:26:50,400
+السنة شو بيصير في الثروة .. في الثروة تبعته
+
+284
+00:26:53,570 --> 00:27:01,330
+لو ربح 30% عفوا لو الأسعار تفعل 30% كام بيربح؟
+
+285
+00:27:01,330 --> 00:27:07,730
+انتوا حاسبوا لوحدكم هو الثروة تبعته حكينا عشر تلاف
+
+286
+00:27:07,730 --> 00:27:13,350
+تعونه خلوها بالهامش plus ten thousands أخدهم من ال
+
+287
+00:27:13,350 --> 00:27:20,020
+broker صح؟ فثروته كام صارت؟ عشرين ألفمظبوط احنا
+
+288
+00:27:20,020 --> 00:27:23,860
+بدأنا حكينا if he has ten thousand dollar and
+
+289
+00:27:23,860 --> 00:27:26,440
+borrowed ten thousand dollar from the broker so he
+
+290
+00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:31,120
+has twenty thousand dollar يعني هو عنده عشرين ألف
+
+291
+00:27:31,120 --> 00:27:34,880
+دولار العشرين ألف دولار هدول فيهم متين سهم يعني
+
+292
+00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,840
+شهري متين سهم فيه متساهم بالدولار هلأ خلينا نشوف
+
+293
+00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:42,920
+ال prices is go up thirty percent اذا الأسعار تفعت
+
+294
+00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:50,360
+thirty percent كم بيكون ربحان؟6000 صح بيقول ربحان
+
+295
+00:27:50,360 --> 00:27:56,940
+6000 so 6000 plus 20000 فهيقول عنده 26000 مع نهاية
+
+296
+00:27:56,940 --> 00:28:02,940
+السنة طبعا لو احنا فصلاهم 26000 عشر تلاف for the
+
+297
+00:28:02,940 --> 00:28:06,840
+investor عشر تلاف for the broker 6000 is the
+
+298
+00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:13,480
+profits forget ماتنسوش that he borrowed 10,000
+
+299
+00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:21,450
+from the broker and 9%interest ما تنسوش أنه هو
+
+300
+00:28:21,450 --> 00:28:23,970
+ادّاين عشر طلعت من ال broker and this is not for
+
+301
+00:28:23,970 --> 00:28:29,090
+free و هذا مش البلاشة على الفائضة what is the
+
+302
+00:28:29,090 --> 00:28:32,690
+interest rate is nine percent و الفائضة كام تسعة
+
+303
+00:28:32,690 --> 00:28:38,770
+في الميزة okay طيب let's carry on خلينا نكمل so
+
+304
+00:28:38,770 --> 00:28:41,570
+far you understand what I mean here from where the
+
+305
+00:28:41,570 --> 00:28:44,510
+twenty six thousands comingit's coming from the
+
+306
+00:28:44,510 --> 00:28:47,550
+total worth twenty thousands plus the profits so
+
+307
+00:28:47,550 --> 00:28:50,670
+the profit twenty .. so the total amount is twenty
+
+308
+00:28:50,670 --> 00:28:54,130
+six thousands يعني لو احنا فصلناهم الستة و عشرين
+
+309
+00:28:54,130 --> 00:29:01,910
+الف هدول عشرة و عشرة و ستة عشر على ال broker و عشر
+
+310
+00:29:01,910 --> 00:29:06,660
+على ال investor و six ال profitthis is I asked
+
+311
+00:29:06,660 --> 00:29:12,500
+before ماحكيلها لك ربح ارتفع السوق كام تلاتية في
+
+312
+00:29:12,500 --> 00:29:16,340
+الميليون طب if the if if the price is there is no
+
+313
+00:29:16,340 --> 00:29:21,360
+changes in the price so twenty thousands if the if
+
+314
+00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:27,420
+the markets goes down if قداش حيخسر ستة ألف حيخسر
+
+315
+00:29:27,420 --> 00:29:31,580
+ستة ألف من العشرين ألف تبعته هصير عنده مش ألف
+
+316
+00:29:31,580 --> 00:29:35,120
+وأربعمية أربعتاشر ألف تمام؟
+
+317
+00:29:40,010 --> 00:29:48,290
+طيب يا باشا okay very simple there is no need for
+
+318
+00:29:48,290 --> 00:29:52,290
+humming يعني مابتوتوش كتير احكوا directly the
+
+319
+00:29:52,290 --> 00:29:59,610
+questions to me which one هذي اه طيب ببساطة هلأ هو
+
+320
+00:29:59,610 --> 00:30:03,510
+كام عنده عشرين ألف عشرة منه و عشرة من ال broker
+
+321
+00:30:03,510 --> 00:30:09,670
+فصار عمره trade في السوقالسوق ارتفع ل 30% فاحنا
+
+322
+00:30:09,670 --> 00:30:16,470
+بدنا نحكي 30% time يعني ضرب ال 20 ألف كام؟ 6 ألف
+
+323
+00:30:16,470 --> 00:30:20,590
+ال 6 ألف زي الفروة ال 20 ألف اللي معاهي 26 ألف
+
+324
+00:30:20,590 --> 00:30:24,890
+that's it طبعا هذا صفر ماصارش تغير ضلت الفروة طبعا
+
+325
+00:30:24,890 --> 00:30:30,730
+هذا الخفضة الفروة طبعا okay هلا بدنا ناخد to
+
+326
+00:30:30,730 --> 00:30:33,590
+consider the interest rates خلينا نشوف
+
+327
+00:30:36,530 --> 00:30:41,530
+ال repayment بده يسد الفلوس لمين repayment
+
+328
+00:30:41,530 --> 00:30:46,890
+principal plus the interest بده يسد ال broker مصري
+
+329
+00:30:46,890 --> 00:30:54,050
+الفلوس و ما هي الفائدة طيب في الحالة الأولى طبعا
+
+330
+00:30:54,050 --> 00:30:57,550
+هيكون طبعا كام احسبولي كام الفلوس ال broker زائد
+
+331
+00:30:57,550 --> 00:31:00,970
+الفائدة كام عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف
+
+332
+00:31:00,970 --> 00:31:01,410
+عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر
+
+333
+00:31:01,410 --> 00:31:01,510
+تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف
+
+334
+00:31:01,510 --> 00:31:02,730
+عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر
+
+335
+00:31:02,730 --> 00:31:07,080
+عشر تلاف عشر تلاف عشر تلاتبقوا يا بنات هان
+
+336
+00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:13,320
+الاستثمار ده بقى عشرين ألف صح؟ of them منهم ten
+
+337
+00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,880
+thousands for the investor عشرة الألف لل investors
+
+338
+00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:21,300
+and ten thousands to the broker شوف هو هو broker و
+
+339
+00:31:21,300 --> 00:31:26,240
+أنا investor I بيه ten thousand add لما نستخدم
+
+340
+00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:35,280
+كلمة add add يعني عند نسبة nine percentAdd nine
+
+341
+00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,780
+percent يعني هو أخد عشر تلاف دولار من ال broker
+
+342
+00:31:38,780 --> 00:31:42,980
+بنسبة تسعة في المية، أداش هيرجع لل broker، أداش
+
+343
+00:31:42,980 --> 00:31:47,760
+هيدفعله فلوس؟ لما بيسدوا كام هيسدوا؟ كيف حسبناها
+
+344
+00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:53,320
+عشر تلاف دولار؟ في عشر تلاف دولار، ten thousand
+
+345
+00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,980
+dollar هيand ten thousand dollar the ten thousand
+
+346
+00:31:56,980 --> 00:32:01,720
+is the broker is bought by from the broker and
+
+347
+00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:06,580
+nine percent is the interest so تسعة في المية في
+
+348
+00:32:06,580 --> 00:32:11,960
+عشر تلاف كم تسعمية دولار plus العشر تلاف هيسدوا كم
+
+349
+00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:16,480
+عشر تلاف تسعمية في كل الحلات هيسدوا عشر تلاف
+
+350
+00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:20,640
+تسعمية ولا هيختلف نفس الشيء
+
+351
+00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:29,200
+ماخستش خسر الربح مش مش شغلته اه so ten thousand
+
+352
+00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:34,680
+nine hundred okay so you understand so far no okay
+
+353
+00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:39,160
+now we want to calculate the investor rate of
+
+354
+00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:43,900
+return investor rate of return investor
+
+355
+00:32:52,310 --> 00:32:58,070
+rate of return يعني عاقد للمستثمر عاقد على الفلوس
+
+356
+00:32:58,070 --> 00:33:03,910
+المستثمر طيب تستطيعوا تحسبوها لحالكم بجيت البنات
+
+357
+00:33:03,910 --> 00:33:08,690
+قلنا rest of students خلينا
+
+358
+00:33:08,690 --> 00:33:11,450
+بس أعطيكوا two minutes خدوا two minutes ت
+
+359
+00:33:11,450 --> 00:33:18,210
+calculate the investor A على الدفتر لأول
+
+360
+00:33:18,210 --> 00:33:35,380
+حالةwe are to the first one then to the second إيش
+
+361
+00:33:35,380 --> 00:33:38,280
+القاعدة اللي هتستخدموها ساعدكم شوية بالقاعدة
+
+362
+00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:47,500
+استخدموا b1 minus c0 divided by b0 هدى ال return
+
+363
+00:33:48,810 --> 00:33:55,690
+Okay يلا نشوف مين يحسب ليها، تفضليها، استخدميها
+
+364
+00:33:55,690 --> 00:34:06,470
+أول
+
+365
+00:34:06,470 --> 00:34:09,990
+حاجة عندنا ستة و عشرين ألف اللي هي end of year كان
+
+366
+00:34:09,990 --> 00:34:14,570
+عندنا ستة و عشرين ألف، بنخسر منهم بتاع ال broker
+
+367
+00:34:14,570 --> 00:34:24,390
+اللي هو العشرة ثلاث وتسع ميةعشان نطبق ال .. عشان
+
+368
+00:34:24,390 --> 00:34:27,950
+نطبق
+
+369
+00:34:27,950 --> 00:34:31,290
+ال .. عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال
+
+370
+00:34:31,290 --> 00:34:31,430
+عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال ..
+
+371
+00:34:31,430 --> 00:34:31,510
+عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال ..
+
+372
+00:34:31,510 --> 00:34:32,490
+عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال ..
+
+373
+00:34:32,490 --> 00:34:33,090
+عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال ..
+
+374
+00:34:33,090 --> 00:34:36,290
+عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال .. عشان نطبق ال ..
+
+375
+00:34:36,290 --> 00:34:46,170
+عشان نطبق ال .. عشان
+
+376
+00:34:46,170 --> 00:34:46,690
+نطبق ال
+
+377
+00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:57,960
+طبعا على ال .. على ال نفس الشغلة .. طبعا
+
+378
+00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:06,400
+بتطلع .. بتطلع fifty one percent .. كام؟ عنا
+
+379
+00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:10,340
+عشرين ألف .. هليا نشوف الثانية .. ثانية .. ثانية
+
+380
+00:35:10,340 --> 00:35:14,740
+.. fifty one percent يعني عنا ال 50% أكتر من نص
+
+381
+00:35:14,740 --> 00:35:19,400
+ربعي .. أكتر من نص تاريخي which is fineعشرين ألف
+
+382
+00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:26,260
+ناقص .. ناقص العشر تلاف وتسعمية تسعة تلاف ومية
+
+383
+00:35:26,260 --> 00:35:28,760
+تسعة تلاف ومية .. نعم تسعة تلاف ومية .. نعم تسعة
+
+384
+00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:29,640
+تلاف ومية .. نعم تسعة تلاف ومية .. نعم تسعة تلاف
+
+385
+00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:30,200
+ومية .. نعم تسعة تلاف ومية .. نعم تسعة تلاف ومية
+
+386
+00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:30,620
+.. نعم تسعة تلاف ومية .. نعم تسعة تلاف ومية .. نعم
+
+387
+00:35:30,620 --> 00:35:31,140
+تسعة تلاف ومية .. نعم تسعة تلاف ومية .. نعم تسعة
+
+388
+00:35:31,140 --> 00:35:34,540
+تلاف ومية .. نعم تسعة تلاف ومية .. نعم تسعة تلاف
+
+389
+00:35:34,540 --> 00:35:41,000
+ومية .. نعم تسعة تلاف ومية .. نعم تسعة تلاف ومية
+
+390
+00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:41,320
+.. ن
+
+391
+00:36:04,630 --> 00:36:05,750
+مش عارف بقى مش فاهم
+
+392
+00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:19,020
+هو خسر تحصل اربعتاشر الف فانا نقسم منهم العشر تلف
+
+393
+00:36:19,020 --> 00:36:30,100
+تسعمية ماهي
+
+394
+00:36:30,100 --> 00:36:38,140
+ال V1 شفرتين اللي هي تلت تلف تسعمية نقص العشر ألف
+
+395
+00:36:38,140 --> 00:36:40,460
+على العشر ألف
+
+396
+00:36:48,110 --> 00:36:55,970
+69% yes and he or she lost 69 percent of his
+
+397
+00:36:55,970 --> 00:37:04,450
+wealth well thank you very much yeah so the if you
+
+398
+00:37:04,450 --> 00:37:08,030
+calculate the interest or the rate of return
+
+399
+00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:17,420
+شكرا جزيلا لك مرة أخرى لإجابة هذا الفيديو و إذا
+
+400
+00:37:17,420 --> 00:37:32,780
+فقط قمت بإدخال ال 51% هنا و 9% و 69% فهذه
+
+401
+00:37:32,780 --> 00:37:40,920
+هي التخطيطات لرسالة عودة بعد الاستثمار في محافظة
+
+402
+00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:49,100
+المجموعاتحسنًا قبل أن تغادر تحاول تقرير اتجارات
+
+403
+00:37:49,100 --> 00:37:54,640
+الشراء التي هي الـ short sell كما أشرحت في ثلاث
+
+404
+00:37:54,640 --> 00:38:01,020
+مقابلات قبلها أشرح لك عندما يبدأ المستخدم بـ sell
+
+405
+00:38:01,020 --> 00:38:08,680
+فهنا المستخدم يبدأ بـ buy هو يدخل السوق أو يتعامل
+
+406
+00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:16,140
+في السوق بشركات الشراءin the other cases if the
+
+407
+00:38:16,140 --> 00:38:20,240
+investor engage in the market by selling أنا
+
+408
+00:38:20,240 --> 00:38:25,120
+وضحتلكوا إياها هذا الكلام صح؟ and we call this إيه
+
+409
+00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:31,140
+سمينا الكلام هذا؟ لأ إذا كان ال investor يدخل
+
+410
+00:38:31,140 --> 00:38:35,800
+بائع، بيكونش معاه فلوس، هو بيبيع، بيبدأ في بيع is
+
+411
+00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:39,120
+not .. he is starting by selling he borrow the
+
+412
+00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:44,750
+stock from the brokerwhat we call this process ايش
+
+413
+00:38:44,750 --> 00:38:49,610
+بتسميها هذا ال process short sell short sell so
+
+414
+00:38:49,610 --> 00:38:51,610
+our next meeting we will talk about the short sell
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/sKyveBLJSek_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/sKyveBLJSek_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ba9ff3af430171a4f5c6b5e6863433f21f6cdba5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/sKyveBLJSek_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 4336, "start": 26.9, "end": 43.36, "text": "بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة الفاترة حكينا بال price weighted average ال price weighted average هي طريقة باستخدام التقييم المؤشر ال financial index حكينا فيه طريقتين في ال price weighted", "tokens": [3555, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 9673, 25720, 27188, 9307, 25720, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 20666, 3218, 32807, 4274, 2423, 3218, 32807, 4274, 39896, 23032, 16572, 28671, 4724, 995, 14851, 9778, 3215, 10943, 16712, 38436, 32640, 9673, 33604, 46309, 2423, 4669, 8186, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 8978, 3224, 23032, 16572, 38149, 9957, 8978, 2423, 3218, 32807], "avg_logprob": -0.1276041733721892, "compression_ratio": 1.7579617834394905, "no_speech_prob": 1.6689300537109375e-06, "words": [{"start": 26.9, "end": 27.18, "word": "بسم", "probability": 0.853759765625}, {"start": 27.18, "end": 27.3, "word": " الله", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 27.3, "end": 27.52, "word": " الرحمن", 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.. من مثلا من مائة ألف، بال .. عندنا بال .. بالألف مثلا كانوا عشر تلاف عندنا سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية اللي هو المؤشر القدس، مؤشر ال .. 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0.52587890625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 24, "seek": 61941, "start": 605.09, "end": 619.41, "text": "the day which the index starts then the next day and we apply this equation what this equation for it calculates the index by points خدوا باقوا بال point نحسبها", "tokens": [3322, 786, 597, 264, 8186, 3719, 550, 264, 958, 786, 293, 321, 3079, 341, 5367, 437, 341, 5367, 337, 309, 4322, 1024, 264, 8186, 538, 2793, 16490, 3215, 14407, 4724, 995, 4587, 14407, 20666, 935, 8717, 5016, 35457, 11296], "avg_logprob": -0.23886718824505807, "compression_ratio": 1.3587786259541985, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 605.09, "end": 605.33, "word": "the", "probability": 0.1510009765625}, {"start": 605.33, "end": 605.87, "word": " day", "probability": 0.9404296875}, {"start": 605.87, "end": 606.37, "word": " which", "probability": 0.89990234375}, {"start": 606.37, "end": 606.57, "word": " the", "probability": 0.85791015625}, {"start": 606.57, "end": 606.87, "word": " index", "probability": 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1.0}, {"id": 45, "seek": 114943, "start": 1120.35, "end": 1149.43, "text": "روح على S&P500 و اكتبوا constituent list of the S&P500 يعني قائمة الشركات الموجودة في ال S&P 500 شركة and it rank them according to the market capitalization according to the liquidity and profitability برتبوهم حسب القوة تبعتهم من ناحية القيمة السوقية و الربحية و السيولة so why you are wasting your time on looking for the companies ليش احنا نروح نضيع وقتنا ان ندور على شركات and the index is", "tokens": [32887, 5016, 15844, 318, 5, 47, 7526, 4032, 1975, 4117, 2655, 3555, 14407, 16085, 317, 1329, 295, 264, 318, 5, 47, 7526, 37495, 22653, 12174, 16373, 46007, 25124, 31747, 9307, 9673, 29245, 23328, 3660, 8978, 2423, 318, 5, 47, 5923, 13412, 31747, 3660, 293, 309, 6181, 552, 4650, 281, 264, 2142, 4238, 2144, 4650, 281, 264, 33131, 293, 46249, 4724, 43500, 3555, 2407, 16095, 11331, 35457, 25062, 2407, 3660, 6055, 3555, 34268, 16095, 9154, 8717, 39319, 10632, 25062, 32640, 3660, 21136, 30543, 10632, 4032, 34892, 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وفي عندنا ال TSX تبع كندا في عندنا ال TSE تبع أستنبول stock exchange, we have TAV تبع تل أفيف وعندنا القدس تبع ال في Alexandria and Cairo in Egypt, we have in Amman, Jordan, we have the Karachi in Pakistan", "tokens": [3615, 8315, 2423, 10405, 6055, 3555, 3615, 5551, 19528, 7649, 25528, 4032, 41185, 43242, 8315, 2423, 3967, 1522, 6055, 3555, 3615, 8032, 11536, 7435, 9122, 11536, 7435, 4032, 41185, 43242, 8315, 2423, 37645, 55, 6055, 3555, 3615, 9122, 1863, 28259, 8978, 43242, 8315, 2423, 314, 5879, 6055, 3555, 3615, 5551, 14851, 1863, 3555, 12610, 4127, 7742, 11, 321, 362, 20094, 53, 6055, 3555, 3615, 6055, 1211, 5551, 5172, 33911, 4032, 3615, 41260, 8315, 25062, 3215, 3794, 6055, 3555, 3615, 2423, 8978, 41943, 293, 30983, 340, 294, 9582, 11, 321, 362, 294, 2012, 1601, 11, 10979, 11, 321, 362, 264, 8009, 21791, 294, 15985], "avg_logprob": -0.28019831960017866, "compression_ratio": 1.6666666666666667, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1692.04, "end": 1692.42, "word": "عنا", 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2043.34, "end": 2063.2, "text": "وكمان حكيناها ب chapter one لكن الفرق هي مافيش فيه premium و مافيش فيها discount مافيش فيه علاوة خلاص نتسبت سعر نفترض ان احنا سبتناها تلاتين there is no premium there is no discount خلاص and we have to exercise", "tokens": [2407, 24793, 7649, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 11296, 4724, 7187, 472, 44381, 27188, 2288, 4587, 39896, 19446, 41185, 8592, 8978, 3224, 12049, 4032, 19446, 41185, 8592, 8978, 11296, 11635, 19446, 41185, 8592, 8978, 3224, 11203, 995, 2407, 3660, 16490, 1211, 33546, 8717, 2655, 35457, 2655, 8608, 3615, 2288, 8717, 5172, 2655, 43042, 16472, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8608, 3555, 2655, 8315, 11296, 6055, 1211, 9307, 9957, 456, 307, 572, 12049, 456, 307, 572, 11635, 16490, 1211, 33546, 293, 321, 362, 281, 5380], "avg_logprob": -0.1892149384792258, "compression_ratio": 1.6521739130434783, "no_speech_prob": 3.337860107421875e-06, "words": [{"start": 2043.34, "end": 2043.8, "word": "وكمان", "probability": 0.84814453125}, {"start": 2043.8, "end": 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option نشتري ال call و بنبيع ال bot the premium is the price of the option itself ال premium نفسها سعر ال option لأن احنا فقط بندفع ال premium لكن ال future contract we have to", "tokens": [266, 75, 88, 562, 309, 307, 21608, 37495, 22653, 4724, 3794, 44945, 1863, 5172, 8848, 5296, 15042, 7251, 9381, 13546, 8978, 6225, 8315, 12602, 49628, 44945, 1863, 5172, 8848, 8592, 20449, 2423, 28820, 10943, 321, 3624, 787, 264, 12049, 37495, 22653, 8032, 1863, 9778, 3794, 2288, 4724, 3794, 2423, 12049, 3614, 1633, 312, 14734, 5296, 31377, 2304, 8717, 8592, 2655, 16572, 2423, 3614, 8717, 8592, 2655, 16572, 2423, 818, 4032, 44945, 21292, 3615, 2423, 10592, 264, 12049, 307, 264, 3218, 295, 264, 3614, 2564, 2423, 12049, 8717, 36178, 11296, 8608, 3615, 2288, 2423, 3614, 5296, 33456, 1975, 5016, 8315, 6156, 47432, 44945, 3215, 5172, 3615, 2423, 12049, 44381, 2423, 2027, 4364, 321, 362, 281], "avg_logprob": -0.1896739133026289, "compression_ratio": 1.7471264367816093, "no_speech_prob": 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the", "probability": 0.91455078125}, {"start": 2362.17, "end": 2362.43, "word": " option", "probability": 0.9375}, {"start": 2362.43, "end": 2363.13, "word": " itself", "probability": 0.74951171875}, {"start": 2363.13, "end": 2363.75, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9091796875}, {"start": 2363.75, "end": 2364.11, "word": " premium", "probability": 0.94873046875}, {"start": 2364.11, "end": 2364.59, "word": " نفسها", "probability": 0.8640950520833334}, {"start": 2364.59, "end": 2364.79, "word": " سعر", "probability": 0.9923502604166666}, {"start": 2364.79, "end": 2364.87, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9677734375}, {"start": 2364.87, "end": 2365.15, "word": " option", "probability": 0.97314453125}, {"start": 2365.15, "end": 2365.77, "word": " لأن", "probability": 0.758544921875}, {"start": 2365.77, "end": 2365.99, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.81298828125}, {"start": 2365.99, "end": 2366.31, "word": " فقط", "probability": 0.985595703125}, {"start": 2366.31, "end": 2366.69, "word": " 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ماعناش any option so you have to exercise long position must buy زي ما احنا شرحناها لازم نشتري at the future prices short position must sell okay", "tokens": [996, 5073, 292, 281, 652, 420, 281, 747, 8982, 5296, 31377, 2304, 5296, 31377, 2304, 5296, 31377, 2304, 8717, 32887, 5016, 35186, 1975, 15042, 16472, 1975, 8315, 1975, 15042, 8717, 1863, 5172, 8848, 1975, 2407, 8717, 1863, 5172, 8848, 37495, 22653, 370, 291, 500, 380, 362, 604, 3614, 19446, 3615, 1863, 33599, 604, 3614, 370, 291, 362, 281, 5380, 938, 2535, 1633, 2256, 30767, 1829, 19446, 1975, 5016, 8315, 13412, 2288, 5016, 8315, 11296, 5296, 31377, 2304, 8717, 8592, 2655, 16572, 412, 264, 2027, 7901, 2099, 2535, 1633, 3607, 1392], "avg_logprob": -0.15762362342614394, "compression_ratio": 1.645631067961165, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 2372.37, "end": 2372.89, "word": "obliged", "probability": 0.8020833333333334}, {"start": 2372.89, "end": 2373.03, "word": " to", "probability": 0.9873046875}, 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2393.19, "end": 2393.69, "word": " must", "probability": 0.89453125}, {"start": 2393.69, "end": 2394.61, "word": " sell", "probability": 0.94482421875}, {"start": 2394.61, "end": 2395.47, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.8251953125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 95, "seek": 241640, "start": 2396.42, "end": 2416.4, "text": "just accept donation احنا ال call option حكينا فيها buy ال bot option حكينا فيها sell future contracts are entered into without cost مابتكلفناش اشي just set the price لكن بال options دفعنا premium او discount بس ال future you just fix the price", "tokens": [3424, 3241, 19724, 1975, 5016, 8315, 2423, 818, 3614, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 8978, 11296, 2256, 2423, 10592, 3614, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 8978, 11296, 3607, 2027, 13952, 366, 9065, 666, 1553, 2063, 3714, 16758, 2655, 28820, 5172, 1863, 33599, 1975, 8592, 1829, 445, 992, 264, 3218, 44381, 20666, 3956, 11778, 5172, 3615, 8315, 12049, 1975, 2407, 11635, 4724, 3794, 2423, 2027, 291, 445, 3191, 264, 3218], 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"word": " ال", "probability": 0.34130859375}, {"start": 2400.32, "end": 2400.5, "word": " bot", "probability": 0.4140625}, {"start": 2400.5, "end": 2400.82, "word": " option", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 2400.82, "end": 2401.16, "word": " حكينا", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 2401.16, "end": 2401.5, "word": " فيها", "probability": 0.98681640625}, {"start": 2401.5, "end": 2401.96, "word": " sell", "probability": 0.9462890625}, {"start": 2401.96, "end": 2403.04, "word": " future", "probability": 0.3076171875}, {"start": 2403.04, "end": 2403.66, "word": " contracts", "probability": 0.84228515625}, {"start": 2403.66, "end": 2403.9, "word": " are", "probability": 0.9541015625}, {"start": 2403.9, "end": 2404.34, "word": " entered", "probability": 0.8544921875}, {"start": 2404.34, "end": 2404.72, "word": " into", "probability": 0.80419921875}, {"start": 2404.72, "end": 2405.06, "word": " without", "probability": 0.90478515625}, {"start": 2405.06, "end": 2405.64, "word": " cost", "probability": 0.93408203125}, {"start": 2405.64, "end": 2407.0, "word": " مابتكلفناش", "probability": 0.8583984375}, {"start": 2407.0, "end": 2407.2, "word": " اشي", "probability": 0.7981770833333334}, {"start": 2407.2, "end": 2407.44, "word": " just", "probability": 0.78369140625}, {"start": 2407.44, "end": 2407.68, "word": " set", "probability": 0.93359375}, {"start": 2407.68, "end": 2407.78, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8427734375}, {"start": 2407.78, "end": 2408.16, "word": " price", "probability": 0.947265625}, {"start": 2408.16, "end": 2409.74, "word": " لكن", "probability": 0.87890625}, {"start": 2409.74, "end": 2410.64, "word": " بال", "probability": 0.9814453125}, {"start": 2410.64, "end": 2411.26, "word": " options", "probability": 0.9482421875}, {"start": 2411.26, "end": 2412.06, "word": " دفعنا", "probability": 0.9683837890625}, {"start": 2412.06, "end": 2412.48, "word": " premium", "probability": 0.904296875}, {"start": 2412.48, "end": 2413.78, "word": " او", "probability": 0.85693359375}, {"start": 2413.78, "end": 2414.28, "word": " discount", "probability": 0.9619140625}, {"start": 2414.28, "end": 2414.92, "word": " بس", "probability": 0.990478515625}, {"start": 2414.92, "end": 2415.04, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.437255859375}, {"start": 2415.04, "end": 2415.3, "word": " future", "probability": 0.994140625}, {"start": 2415.3, "end": 2415.5, "word": " you", "probability": 0.95458984375}, {"start": 2415.5, "end": 2415.76, "word": " just", "probability": 0.9365234375}, {"start": 2415.76, "end": 2415.96, "word": " fix", "probability": 0.9208984375}, {"start": 2415.96, "end": 2416.08, "word": " the", "probability": 0.89599609375}, {"start": 2416.08, "end": 2416.4, "word": " price", "probability": 0.93212890625}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2417.8475, "duration_after_vad": 2299.3499999999917}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/sKyveBLJSek_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/sKyveBLJSek_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3088ceb1238f9cb6b4483f23e95f16a0e50fe832
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/sKyveBLJSek_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2084 @@
+1
+00:00:26,900 --> 00:00:31,040
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة الفاترة حكينا بال
+
+2
+00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,920
+price weighted average ال price weighted average
+
+3
+00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:39,740
+هي طريقة باستخدام التقييم المؤشر ال financial
+
+4
+00:00:39,740 --> 00:00:44,470
+index حكينا فيه طريقتين في ال price weightedوفي
+
+5
+00:00:44,470 --> 00:00:48,050
+اللي هو ال value market weighted المرة أخرى حكينا
+
+6
+00:00:48,050 --> 00:00:53,370
+عن ال price weighted طريقة التسعير بس فقط تعتمد
+
+7
+00:00:53,370 --> 00:00:57,030
+على ال pricing however the value weighted is
+
+8
+00:00:57,030 --> 00:01:04,030
+depend on the value of the shares يعني بتفرق عن ال
+
+9
+00:01:04,030 --> 00:01:07,710
+price weighted انه احنا بنضيف ال number of shares
+
+10
+00:01:07,710 --> 00:01:11,960
+على ال index ال index calculationsيعني المرة
+
+11
+00:01:11,960 --> 00:01:14,600
+الفاتة لما كنا نحكي ع ال price weighted كنا بس
+
+12
+00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:19,180
+نجمع ال price يعني مثلا إذا كان عندي a,b,c you
+
+13
+00:01:19,180 --> 00:01:32,820
+just sum the prices of a,b and c okay and Dow
+
+14
+00:01:32,820 --> 00:01:36,950
+Jones developed this and take the average of aب وC
+
+15
+00:01:36,950 --> 00:01:43,170
+هذا هو السعر الموضوع اليوم سأتحدث عن مؤسسة قيمة
+
+16
+00:01:49,500 --> 00:01:53,700
+So what is the difference between value market and
+
+17
+00:01:53,700 --> 00:01:58,900
+the price weighted؟يعني شو الفرق بين بنائس المؤشر
+
+18
+00:01:58,900 --> 00:02:04,700
+بطريق ال value يعني بقيمة المنشئة أو قيمة السوقية
+
+19
+00:02:04,700 --> 00:02:08,760
+المنشئة و الفرق بين التسعير؟ بال value market we
+
+20
+00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,420
+consider the number of shares
+
+21
+00:02:14,940 --> 00:02:18,420
+that outstanding by the company يعني بناخد بعين
+
+22
+00:02:18,420 --> 00:02:21,940
+الاعتبار عدد الأسهم اللى تم إصدارها من قبل الشركة
+
+23
+00:02:21,940 --> 00:02:28,980
+في عندكم بال .. على الصفحه انا نزلت how to
+
+24
+00:02:28,980 --> 00:02:33,420
+calculate the market value انا نزلتلكم كيف نحسب ال
+
+25
+00:02:33,420 --> 00:02:38,840
+market value okay الفرق
+
+26
+00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,060
+زى ما حكينا ان احنا ال price just we consider the
+
+27
+00:02:41,060 --> 00:02:48,200
+price لكن بال .. اه؟لأ موجود في الكتاب انت معاك
+
+28
+00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:52,040
+الكتاب ولا ال slides؟ okay في الكتاب موجود okay
+
+29
+00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:56,680
+بال .. بال price weighted we just consider the
+
+30
+00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:01,000
+price بال value markets we consider the number of
+
+31
+00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,220
+shares it means the price times by the number of
+
+32
+00:03:04,220 --> 00:03:08,740
+shares يعني احنا بنضرب ال price بعدد القسم number
+
+33
+00:03:08,740 --> 00:03:13,110
+of shares يعني عدد القسم okay نرجع لنفس المثالفي
+
+34
+00:03:13,110 --> 00:03:18,030
+عندنا شركتين زي ما انتوا شايفيهم شركة ABC و شركة
+
+35
+00:03:18,030 --> 00:03:26,710
+XYZ الكل شايف اه ال initial price يعني السعر بداية
+
+36
+00:03:26,710 --> 00:03:37,230
+بارح او بالامس كان 25$ ل ABC و 50$ ل XYZ باليوم
+
+37
+00:03:37,230 --> 00:03:42,590
+التاني ABC صارت 30$ و XYZ 45$
+
+38
+00:03:46,670 --> 00:03:52,390
+number of shares number of shares يعني عدد القسم
+
+39
+00:03:52,390 --> 00:03:57,530
+عدد القسم ل ABC عشرين و عدد القسم ل XYZ اتنين
+
+40
+00:03:59,630 --> 00:04:02,170
+الخمسمية اللى جبناها ال initial value يعني قيمة
+
+41
+00:04:02,170 --> 00:04:06,990
+اول يوم او امبارح بتساوي اللى هو ال 25 ضرب number
+
+42
+00:04:06,990 --> 00:04:10,030
+of shares زى ما حكى ان ال number of shares ال
+
+43
+00:04:10,030 --> 00:04:14,510
+price ضرب number of shares يعني نضرب هذا النتيجة
+
+44
+00:04:14,510 --> 00:04:25,100
+بتساوي 25 ضرب 20 و هذه النتيجة 50 ضرب 2بتساوي اللي
+
+45
+00:04:25,100 --> 00:04:30,000
+هو ال one hundred ال 100 هذا ال price وهذا ال
+
+46
+00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,960
+number of shares ضربناهم طلع عندنا الجواب أخدنا
+
+47
+00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:40,080
+المجموع طلع عندنا خمسمية زي ستمية كم؟ ستمية هذا
+
+48
+00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,680
+لليوم اللي ايش؟ لامبارح لنافطر لان امبارح كان zero
+
+49
+00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:51,510
+امبارح يعني خلص zero اليوم oneيعني اليوم one,
+
+50
+00:04:51,810 --> 00:04:56,910
+tomorrow اتنين, تلاتة اربعة and so on نفس الشيء
+
+51
+00:04:56,910 --> 00:05:03,070
+ميكرر ال 600 ايش بتساوي السعر تلاتين ضربضارب
+
+52
+00:05:03,070 --> 00:05:05,930
+العشرين والخمسة واربعين ضارب التانية وخمسة واربعين
+
+53
+00:05:05,930 --> 00:05:10,290
+times two ninety ثلاثة times twenty six hundred we
+
+54
+00:05:10,290 --> 00:05:13,190
+end up with six hundred ninety أخدنا ست مائة و
+
+55
+00:05:13,190 --> 00:05:15,790
+تسعين و أخدنا ست مائة و تسعين يعني أنا باليوم من
+
+56
+00:05:15,790 --> 00:05:20,390
+بارح zero و هذا باليوم الأول today شوفنا كم يكون
+
+57
+00:05:20,390 --> 00:05:27,170
+فيه زيادة تسعين اليوم six ninety yesterday six
+
+58
+00:05:27,170 --> 00:05:30,310
+hundred so it means the index increased by ninety
+
+59
+00:05:30,310 --> 00:05:36,550
+okayطبعا هذا هو بناء ال index اول خطوة انه احنا
+
+60
+00:05:36,550 --> 00:05:40,550
+خلصنا ال .. طب ايش المعادلة لبناء ال index بعد ما
+
+61
+00:05:40,550 --> 00:05:43,410
+احنا ضربنا ال price ضرب ال times number of shares
+
+62
+00:05:43,410 --> 00:05:48,450
+نشوف المعادلة المعادلة في اي مؤشر لو انا بدأ احسب
+
+63
+00:05:48,450 --> 00:05:54,170
+ال index to any index لو انا بدأ احسب معادلة اي
+
+64
+00:05:54,170 --> 00:05:59,330
+مؤشر we have to decide at what point the index
+
+65
+00:05:59,330 --> 00:06:03,460
+should startand أي نقطة لازم المؤشر يبدأ في ناس
+
+66
+00:06:03,460 --> 00:06:07,080
+بيبدو المؤشر تبعهم مية دولار أو مية نقطة في ناس
+
+67
+00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,640
+بيبدوها بالألف في ناس بيبدوها بالعشرة ألاف في ناس
+
+68
+00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:14,140
+بيبدوها بالمليون okay so it depends on the
+
+69
+00:06:14,140 --> 00:06:17,220
+financial market committee يعني بتعتمد على قرار
+
+70
+00:06:17,220 --> 00:06:21,960
+قرار لجنة سوق الأوراق المالية انهم بيبدو المؤشر
+
+71
+00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,600
+بمية نقطة يعني مثلا احنا عندنا درجات الطلاب من مية
+
+72
+00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:29,620
+في ناس تانية مافيش عندهم مية في منهم a,b,c,dفي ناس
+
+73
+00:06:29,620 --> 00:06:32,140
+لأ مش من مية، في منهم من عشرة، في ناس من .. من
+
+74
+00:06:32,140 --> 00:06:35,400
+ألف، في ناس من عشرين، so it depends on the
+
+75
+00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:37,960
+regulations of the financial markets يعني مثلا
+
+76
+00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,680
+عندنا بال .. بال New York Stock Exchange عندهم بال
+
+77
+00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:45,300
+.. من مثلا من مائة ألف، بال .. عندنا بال .. بالألف
+
+78
+00:06:45,300 --> 00:06:48,480
+مثلا كانوا عشر تلاف عندنا سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية
+
+79
+00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:54,240
+اللي هو المؤشر القدس، مؤشر ال .. London Stock
+
+80
+00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,900
+Exchange اللي هو FTSE 100 بدأت بمائة ألف، so it
+
+81
+00:06:56,900 --> 00:07:01,190
+depends which you decidefor instance we decide by
+
+82
+00:07:01,190 --> 00:07:05,970
+one hundred احنا قررنا ان احنا نبدأ المؤشر بكم؟
+
+83
+00:07:05,970 --> 00:07:13,630
+one hundred ضرب times B1 divided by B0 what is the
+
+84
+00:07:13,630 --> 00:07:19,370
+B1? B1 is the value today divided by the value
+
+85
+00:07:19,370 --> 00:07:23,710
+yesterday okay so the value today is six hundred
+
+86
+00:07:23,710 --> 00:07:29,320
+ninety the value of yesterday six hundred okaySo
+
+87
+00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:33,640
+the result is 115
+
+88
+00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:41,640
+فالنتيجة بتطلع 115 بتطلع 115 خلنا
+
+89
+00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:47,260
+نكمل هلا طب اليوم zero اللي هو مبارح كام المفروض
+
+90
+00:07:47,260 --> 00:07:52,600
+يكون المؤشر بدأ بكم؟ يلا أشوفكممبارح المؤشر
+
+91
+00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,180
+المفروض يبدأ بكم؟ مؤشر كم لازم يبدأ؟ احنا قلنا انه
+
+92
+00:07:56,180 --> 00:07:59,700
+قررت اللجنة تبدأ ب 100 صح؟ اذا هاي 100، 100 من وين
+
+93
+00:07:59,700 --> 00:08:05,080
+اجت؟ لو احنا مبارح قلنا index is equal one hundred
+
+94
+00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:08,660
+times B not divided by B not لأنه بدأنا مبارح بس
+
+95
+00:08:08,660 --> 00:08:13,680
+حتى ساب المؤشر B not على B not one hundred times B
+
+96
+00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,320
+not six hundred divided by six hundred so it means
+
+97
+00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:22,660
+one hundred هاي ال one hundred okay this is to the
+
+98
+00:08:22,660 --> 00:08:29,640
+A one hundred fifteen إذا كام زاد المؤشر خمس عشر
+
+99
+00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,840
+نقطة خمس عشر نقطة تطلعوا على المؤشر هان هذا
+
+100
+00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:38,820
+بتشوفوه بالجزيرة بيكون أحمر نازل أخضر طالع فكم
+
+101
+00:08:38,820 --> 00:08:43,180
+ارتفع الأخضر خمس عشر هلأ لو إحنا بدينا نغير في
+
+102
+00:08:43,180 --> 00:08:46,660
+الأسعار يعني نفترض إنه إحنا زي ما إنتوا شايفين
+
+103
+00:08:46,660 --> 00:08:50,670
+نروح نغير في الأسعارنغير في أسعار مثلا ال final
+
+104
+00:08:50,670 --> 00:08:56,810
+value بدل ما هي السعر تلاتين صار أربعين شوفوا
+
+105
+00:08:56,810 --> 00:09:02,810
+مباشرة إيش راح يصير صار عندي كام المؤشر صار أكم
+
+106
+00:09:02,810 --> 00:09:09,690
+نقطة زاد طلعوا ع زيادة زيادة و انخفاض كام 48 طب لو
+
+107
+00:09:09,690 --> 00:09:15,710
+فكرنا أنه نخفض ال .. نخفض السعر نفترض أنه خمستاشر
+
+108
+00:09:15,710 --> 00:09:17,170
+فشو صار في المؤشر
+
+109
+00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,080
+انخفض في كام؟ خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و
+
+110
+00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:24,300
+تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين،
+
+111
+00:09:24,300 --> 00:09:25,680
+خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و
+
+112
+00:09:25,680 --> 00:09:25,940
+تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين،
+
+113
+00:09:25,940 --> 00:09:30,540
+خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و
+
+114
+00:09:30,540 --> 00:09:33,920
+تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين،
+
+115
+00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:38,020
+خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و
+
+116
+00:09:38,020 --> 00:09:42,450
+تلاتين،Okay هاي فكرة ال index هاي الفكرة مطبقة في
+
+117
+00:09:42,450 --> 00:09:46,750
+ال New York Stock Exchange مطبقة بسوق السوق New
+
+118
+00:09:46,750 --> 00:09:50,190
+York سوق الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية okay و
+
+119
+00:09:50,190 --> 00:09:54,290
+particularly S&P 500 هو المطبق هذه الفكرة يعني
+
+120
+00:09:54,290 --> 00:09:59,850
+باختصار أول خطوة بنعملها بنضرب ال price times the
+
+121
+00:09:59,850 --> 00:10:03,810
+number of shares price times number of shares for
+
+122
+00:10:05,090 --> 00:10:08,950
+the day which the index starts then the next day
+
+123
+00:10:08,950 --> 00:10:15,310
+and we apply this equation what this equation for
+
+124
+00:10:15,310 --> 00:10:18,630
+it calculates the index by points خدوا باقوا بال
+
+125
+00:10:18,630 --> 00:10:23,120
+point نحسبهابالنقاط يعني هذه الجواب مش 35 دولار
+
+126
+00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:27,620
+it's 35 points اذا انتوا بتسمعوا مثلا بال CNBC ولا
+
+127
+00:10:27,620 --> 00:10:32,260
+بالجزيرة they say it's decline 500 points or 300
+
+128
+00:10:32,260 --> 00:10:35,780
+points يعني مابيحكوش انخفض الدولار او ترفع بال
+
+129
+00:10:35,780 --> 00:10:42,300
+points okay بنحسب ال index لليوم الأول for
+
+130
+00:10:42,300 --> 00:10:47,080
+instance و بنحسب ال index لليوم التالي one hundred
+
+131
+00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:53,350
+divided by oneone divided by by zero يعني نقسم
+
+132
+00:10:53,350 --> 00:10:57,770
+اللي احنا شوفناها ال final value divided by the
+
+133
+00:10:57,770 --> 00:11:00,810
+initial value ال final value يعني بتاعة اليوم ال
+
+134
+00:11:00,810 --> 00:11:03,850
+initial value أول ما بدأ المؤشر نقسم هذه على هذه
+
+135
+00:11:03,850 --> 00:11:09,650
+بطلع لنا الجواب هذا طبعا نطرحه من المية بطلع لنا
+
+136
+00:11:09,650 --> 00:11:15,020
+الفرحةOkay هذا المثال موجود عندكم بال .. بال web
+
+137
+00:11:15,020 --> 00:11:20,880
+page على الصفحة الشخصية so you go back and you can
+
+138
+00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:24,080
+just revise the calculations and see how it will
+
+139
+00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:36,460
+be calculated okay ب zero بارح okay
+
+140
+00:11:38,780 --> 00:11:44,700
+فاحنا حاكينا على ال .. كمان مرة نرجع أنه احنا we
+
+141
+00:11:44,700 --> 00:11:48,820
+have two methods to calculate the index فهنا
+
+142
+00:11:48,820 --> 00:11:53,340
+طريقتين لحساب ال index ال price methods and the
+
+143
+00:11:53,340 --> 00:11:56,940
+market value methods the main difference between
+
+144
+00:11:56,940 --> 00:12:00,300
+the price and the market value is the market value
+
+145
+00:12:00,300 --> 00:12:03,580
+calculated by times the price by the number of
+
+146
+00:12:03,580 --> 00:12:06,900
+shares and then you carry on calculations the
+
+147
+00:12:06,900 --> 00:12:11,660
+indexthere are other developments on how they
+
+148
+00:12:11,660 --> 00:12:16,100
+calculate the index but based on this level we
+
+149
+00:12:16,100 --> 00:12:20,900
+just know about the very simple methods in
+
+150
+00:12:20,900 --> 00:12:25,300
+calculating the index يعني في كتير طرق متطورة في
+
+151
+00:12:25,300 --> 00:12:29,000
+ال index في حساب ال index لكن احنا لهذا المستوى
+
+152
+00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:34,240
+فقط بناعطي هذه الطريقتين طريقة ال price وطريقة ال
+
+153
+00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:38,320
+market okay any question
+
+154
+00:12:43,550 --> 00:12:48,970
+المية بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية
+
+155
+00:12:48,970 --> 00:12:50,110
+المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر
+
+156
+00:12:50,110 --> 00:12:50,310
+بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية
+
+157
+00:12:50,310 --> 00:12:52,330
+المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر
+
+158
+00:12:52,330 --> 00:12:55,750
+بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية
+
+159
+00:12:55,750 --> 00:13:01,890
+المؤشر بداية
+
+160
+00:13:01,890 --> 00:13:05,670
+المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر
+
+161
+00:13:05,670 --> 00:13:06,950
+بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية
+
+162
+00:13:06,950 --> 00:13:07,430
+المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر
+
+163
+00:13:07,430 --> 00:13:07,510
+بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية
+
+164
+00:13:07,510 --> 00:13:07,510
+المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر
+
+165
+00:13:07,510 --> 00:13:13,460
+بداية المؤشرلو إجا بكرا هذا بيصير initial zero و
+
+166
+00:13:13,460 --> 00:13:17,160
+بكرا بيصير one فبصير أحسب one minus zero يعني
+
+167
+00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:21,380
+اليوم الجاى ناقص اليوم السابق فمتى كيف؟ هذه طريقة
+
+168
+00:13:21,380 --> 00:13:27,820
+حسبة مؤشر يعني مثلا لو إجينا مثلا نحكي tomorrow
+
+169
+00:13:27,820 --> 00:13:33,380
+tomorrow صار المؤشر tomorrow صار مؤشر eighty-five
+
+170
+00:13:33,380 --> 00:13:40,060
+بتصير هذه sixty-five yesterdayOkay C0 كم المؤشر
+
+171
+00:13:40,060 --> 00:13:45,140
+صار ارتفع ارتفع بقيمة عشرين نقطة بس بظل انه قيمة
+
+172
+00:13:45,140 --> 00:13:47,920
+المؤشر eighty five the value of the index is
+
+173
+00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:51,000
+eighty five لو احنا رجعنا لل origin what it means
+
+174
+00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:55,140
+eighty five from the origin from the first day of
+
+175
+00:13:55,140 --> 00:14:00,200
+the index it was one hundred ال
+
+176
+00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:04,830
+origin اول يوم انعمل فيه المؤشرأول يوم بدأنا فيه
+
+177
+00:14:04,830 --> 00:14:08,490
+المؤشر هذا اسمه ال initial price أول يوم عملنا فيه
+
+178
+00:14:08,490 --> 00:14:12,410
+المؤشر بعد هيك ال كل يوم بيصير يتغير بيصير يتغير
+
+179
+00:14:12,410 --> 00:14:20,210
+فبصير أنه أعمل كل يوم مع اليوم اللي قبله okay وين
+
+180
+00:14:20,210 --> 00:14:34,420
+المشكلة ال price و ال value عشان نحصل ال indexعشان
+
+181
+00:14:34,420 --> 00:14:39,100
+هو يساعدك to understandhow the financial market is
+
+182
+00:14:39,100 --> 00:14:42,620
+fluctuated كيف ال financial market تتحرك يعني
+
+183
+00:14:42,620 --> 00:14:47,060
+ماينفعش أروح أشوف كل الشركات يعني مثلا في ال S&D
+
+184
+00:14:47,060 --> 00:14:50,280
+500 في thousands of companies كيف أتعرف إنه ال
+
+185
+00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,160
+total تبع السوق ارتفع أو انخفض بدأ أروح أكل الشركة
+
+186
+00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:56,660
+و أحسبها فلازم يكون في عندي index هذا ال index
+
+187
+00:14:56,660 --> 00:15:00,760
+يعني زي pointer مؤشر بيحكي له إن الشركات انخفضت
+
+188
+00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:04,160
+أدائها أو ارتفع هذا ال benefits تبع ال index
+
+189
+00:15:07,490 --> 00:15:10,290
+يعني كيف انا بدأ أعرف أداء الطلاب، مانفعش أشيف كل
+
+190
+00:15:10,290 --> 00:15:14,030
+طالب إيش الأداء تبعه، لازم كلهم مع بعض، أخد عينة
+
+191
+00:15:14,030 --> 00:15:17,610
+منهم، sample و ال sample أعملها إلها indicator، ب
+
+192
+00:15:17,610 --> 00:15:20,590
+line عليها، بقرر إنه في انخفاض في أداء الطلاب أو
+
+193
+00:15:20,590 --> 00:15:27,790
+في ارتفاع في أداء الطلاب okay for
+
+194
+00:15:27,790 --> 00:15:32,650
+further detailsلمعلومات أكتر I will try to upload
+
+195
+00:15:32,650 --> 00:15:39,130
+some useful articles to understand in details
+
+196
+00:15:39,130 --> 00:15:44,750
+about the index أنتوا أكيد تسمعوا أخبار صح؟ أخبار
+
+197
+00:15:44,750 --> 00:15:48,530
+اقتصادية، ماسمعتوش .. ماسمعتوش بال .. بال Dow
+
+198
+00:15:48,530 --> 00:15:53,630
+Jones و بال .. بال .. خلاص ابدوا يسمعوا، ابدوا
+
+199
+00:15:53,630 --> 00:15:54,650
+يسمعوا أخبار اقتصادية
+
+200
+00:16:02,730 --> 00:16:08,670
+Okay نحكي على ال .. هاي .. بعض الأمثلة there are
+
+201
+00:16:08,670 --> 00:16:13,010
+some example on market index بعض الأمثلة على
+
+202
+00:16:13,010 --> 00:16:18,590
+الأسواق المؤشرات في عندنا ال S&P 500 هو مؤشر سوق
+
+203
+00:16:18,590 --> 00:16:23,490
+نيويورك broadly based index of 500 firms لما
+
+204
+00:16:23,490 --> 00:16:31,330
+بيحسبوا ال .. ال S&P 500بيجيبوا one ABCD till 500
+
+205
+00:16:31,330 --> 00:16:37,030
+companies لعند 500 شركة و بيحسبوا بناء عليهم
+
+206
+00:16:37,030 --> 00:16:41,470
+المؤشر طبعا مين هم ال ABC هدول the best companies
+
+207
+00:16:41,470 --> 00:16:45,150
+based on market capitalization يعني هم أفضل شركات
+
+208
+00:16:45,150 --> 00:16:48,490
+حسب market capitalization و كمان بيضيفوا لشغل
+
+209
+00:16:48,490 --> 00:16:50,870
+market capitalization اللي هو ال liquidity و
+
+210
+00:16:50,870 --> 00:16:55,130
+profitability and other conditionsبضيفه يعني سيولة
+
+211
+00:16:55,130 --> 00:17:01,630
+الشركة والربح تبع الشركة إلى آخرين ال S&P500
+
+212
+00:17:01,630 --> 00:17:04,510
+بتعتمد على الطريقة اللي احنا عملناها بشوية لو
+
+213
+00:17:04,510 --> 00:17:08,070
+market evaluated index بتعتمد على الطريقة اللي
+
+214
+00:17:08,070 --> 00:17:13,570
+احنا حلناها investors can base their portfolios on
+
+215
+00:17:13,570 --> 00:17:19,470
+the index ليش سألتني why the index is important
+
+216
+00:17:19,470 --> 00:17:24,890
+ليش ال index is importantthe answer is you don't
+
+217
+00:17:24,890 --> 00:17:27,570
+need to look for who is the best because the best
+
+218
+00:17:27,570 --> 00:17:31,150
+is there يعني مافي حاجة اللي احنا ندور مين الأحسن
+
+219
+00:17:31,150 --> 00:17:36,530
+لأن ال index is help us to categorize who is the
+
+220
+00:17:36,530 --> 00:17:40,860
+bestيعني ما .. مافيش داعي أروح أدور على أقرأ
+
+221
+00:17:40,860 --> 00:17:43,120
+تقارير الشركات وأعرف مين هو أحس .. مين أه .. هي
+
+222
+00:17:43,120 --> 00:17:47,000
+أحسن الشركة طالما أن المؤشر نفسه بيساعدني who is
+
+223
+00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,660
+the first ten, who is the first one hundred, who
+
+224
+00:17:49,660 --> 00:17:53,460
+is the first five hundred so I try to invest my
+
+225
+00:17:53,460 --> 00:17:58,580
+money on the .. the high quality corporationsأه
+
+226
+00:17:58,580 --> 00:18:01,800
+أنا بحاول أستثمر الأموال سبعتين في أفضل الشركات
+
+227
+00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:06,300
+يعني أنا مش بحاجة أروح أفتش على شركات جيدة طالما
+
+228
+00:18:06,300 --> 00:18:10,200
+is already أن الشركات موجودة جيدة يعني أنا مثلا في
+
+229
+00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,100
+سوق New York Stock Exchange فيه لدي ألاف الشركات
+
+230
+00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,740
+المؤشر هذا بيساعدني بيحكي له أنه مين أفضل الشركات
+
+231
+00:18:16,740 --> 00:18:20,840
+هذا أهمية بناء المؤشر طبعا المؤشر هذا فيه له
+
+232
+00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,340
+details مين هم الشركات just go to the S&P 500
+
+233
+00:18:24,340 --> 00:18:28,240
+روحوا على ال S&P 500 ا click on the on the index
+
+234
+00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,360
+and you will see the number of shares and who are
+
+235
+00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:36,020
+the shares listed in the S&P 500 يعني روحوا على ال
+
+236
+00:18:36,020 --> 00:18:40,930
+S&P 500 اللي انا أعطيتكم إياه ال websiteروح على S
+
+237
+00:18:40,930 --> 00:18:45,490
+&P500 و اكتبوا constituent list of the S&P500 يعني
+
+238
+00:18:45,490 --> 00:18:50,270
+قائمة الشركات الموجودة في ال S&P 500 شركة and it
+
+239
+00:18:50,270 --> 00:18:53,030
+rank them according to the market capitalization
+
+240
+00:18:53,030 --> 00:18:55,550
+according to the liquidity and profitability
+
+241
+00:18:55,550 --> 00:18:59,570
+برتبوهم حسب القوة تبعتهم من ناحية القيمة السوقية و
+
+242
+00:18:59,570 --> 00:19:02,530
+الربحية و السيولة so why you are wasting your time
+
+243
+00:19:02,530 --> 00:19:06,270
+on looking for the companies ليش احنا نروح نضيع
+
+244
+00:19:06,270 --> 00:19:10,820
+وقتنا ان ندور على شركات and the index isRank them
+
+245
+00:19:10,820 --> 00:19:13,920
+لأن المؤشر هو نفسه يعني بيعطينا مين هو أفضل
+
+246
+00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:17,640
+الشركات So investors can base their portfolio on
+
+247
+00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:22,000
+an index يعني ممكن هم يعمل Portfolios محافظ بناء
+
+248
+00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:23,080
+على ال index
+
+249
+00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,760
+كيف بيعملوا كلان هذا buy and index mutual funds
+
+250
+00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:32,040
+فاكرين لما حكيت عن ال mutual funds بدل ما هم
+
+251
+00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:36,100
+الشركات ال insurance companies و ال mutual funds و
+
+252
+00:19:36,100 --> 00:19:40,880
+ال investment companies they don't have to spend a
+
+253
+00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,940
+lot of time on looking for companies فال mutual
+
+254
+00:19:43,940 --> 00:19:47,400
+funds بروحوا بريحوا راسهم they just only invest on
+
+255
+00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:51,920
+the companies listed on the on the indexبس بروحوا
+
+256
+00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,040
+باستثمروا في اللي موجودة بال index ال index had
+
+257
+00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,920
+every quarter is revised by the financial market
+
+258
+00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:03,140
+committee يعني هذا المؤشر يتم مراجعته كل ربع سنة
+
+259
+00:20:03,140 --> 00:20:06,680
+يعني كل ثلاث شهور ال financial committee يعني لجنة
+
+260
+00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:11,680
+الأوراق المالية بتقوم بمراجعة الشركات اللي في
+
+261
+00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:16,100
+المؤشر some companies leave the market and others
+
+262
+00:20:16,100 --> 00:20:20,270
+leave the index and others get in the indexيعني في
+
+263
+00:20:20,270 --> 00:20:23,670
+بعض الشركات بتروح من ال index و الشركات بتروح من
+
+264
+00:20:23,670 --> 00:20:27,790
+ضعف من ال index so the portfolio managers or the
+
+265
+00:20:27,790 --> 00:20:30,490
+marshall fund managers they rebalance their
+
+266
+00:20:30,490 --> 00:20:32,930
+portfolios according to the changes in the index
+
+267
+00:20:32,930 --> 00:20:37,270
+يعني بتلاقيهم بيعملوا تغيير في المحافظتهم حسب
+
+268
+00:20:37,270 --> 00:20:40,350
+التغير في ال index خلينا ناخد مثال بسيط لو كان أنا
+
+269
+00:20:40,350 --> 00:20:46,670
+عندي ال index just include A,B,Cالـ D ليس موجودا و
+
+270
+00:20:46,670 --> 00:20:51,450
+هذا الانديكس موجود فقط في 3 شركات و نحن لدينا D
+
+271
+00:20:51,450 --> 00:20:56,110
+نحن لدينا E نحن لدينا F J وكذلك يعني المؤشر بس
+
+272
+00:20:56,110 --> 00:21:00,770
+بحتوى على تلت شركات و احنا رتبنا وجدنا أفضل تلت
+
+273
+00:21:00,770 --> 00:21:05,750
+شركات اللي هو ABC بعد 3 أشهر بعد 3 أشهر بعد تلت
+
+274
+00:21:05,750 --> 00:21:11,880
+شهور نحن نحفظ هذا و بنعمل ranking و نجد ABA,B,E
+
+275
+00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:16,660
+بفاصة 3 So it means C will leave the market, the
+
+276
+00:21:16,660 --> 00:21:22,740
+index and we add up E بنضيف ال E بدلها So the
+
+277
+00:21:22,740 --> 00:21:31,000
+investors they replace C by E بيبدلوا ال C بال E
+
+278
+00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:35,320
+في المحفظة تبعكم أو في ال martial funds ليش؟ لأن
+
+279
+00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:39,200
+already the financial market or the index is
+
+280
+00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:46,430
+designedto help investors to categorize companies
+
+281
+00:21:46,430 --> 00:21:48,610
+based on the market capitalization based on the
+
+282
+00:21:48,610 --> 00:21:53,690
+liquidity based on the profitability يعني السوق
+
+283
+00:21:53,690 --> 00:21:57,810
+المالي بنى مؤشر عشان يساعد الناس يعرفوا مين
+
+284
+00:21:57,810 --> 00:22:01,270
+الشركات أول عشر شركات تانية عشر شركات and and so
+
+285
+00:22:01,270 --> 00:22:04,870
+on so you don't need to waste your time on looking
+
+286
+00:22:04,870 --> 00:22:08,350
+for or searching of the best companies
+
+287
+00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:19,360
+Okay كيف؟ لأ كانوا a و b و c okay بعدين صارت a و d
+
+288
+00:22:19,360 --> 00:22:25,820
+و e صارت a و b و e صارت .. هلا عملنا لهم ranking
+
+289
+00:22:25,820 --> 00:22:31,760
+وجدنا أنه حسب ال ranking a و b و e أفضل ف why ..
+
+290
+00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:37,060
+why you are keeping c إذا .. إذا .. ه .. وبالتالي
+
+291
+00:22:37,060 --> 00:22:41,620
+هتطلع من ال index هنروح نبدلها ب eفال investors
+
+292
+00:22:41,620 --> 00:22:50,540
+..الان السوق قرر ان a و b ايه the best؟ ال index،
+
+293
+00:22:50,540 --> 00:22:55,660
+هذي ال index، هاي ال index okay؟ هلأ انت عندك
+
+294
+00:22:55,660 --> 00:22:58,760
+portfolio، you are mimicking the index، you are
+
+295
+00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,830
+mimicking the index، what it means mimicking؟يعني
+
+296
+00:23:02,830 --> 00:23:06,870
+احنا بنقلد ال index لأنه بنعرف ان ال index هم أفضل
+
+297
+00:23:06,870 --> 00:23:11,290
+الناس فبروحش بنسوي بنستثمر في ال index mimicking
+
+298
+00:23:11,290 --> 00:23:15,910
+or copying انا معايا فلوس بروح بقلد ال index لما
+
+299
+00:23:15,910 --> 00:23:19,230
+قلدت ال index في المرحلة الأولى كان a,b,c هلأ لما
+
+300
+00:23:19,230 --> 00:23:26,610
+اتغير صار a,b,e و بتسهل لازم ارفع ال c و أحط a,b,e
+
+301
+00:23:26,610 --> 00:23:31,390
+و بضيف ال e in this case ال investors are selling
+
+302
+00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:38,960
+بيبيعوا C and buying E بيبيعوا ال C و بيشتريوا ال
+
+303
+00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,660
+E عشان يعرفوا انه نفسهم and they are mimicking
+
+304
+00:23:42,660 --> 00:23:52,040
+mimicking or copying mimicking mimic يقلد
+
+305
+00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:57,120
+mimicking the index or copying the index يحاولوا
+
+306
+00:23:57,120 --> 00:24:00,440
+ان يقلدوا ال index عشان يشتريوا راسهم بدون مش
+
+307
+00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:01,100
+مشاكل okay
+
+308
+00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:11,160
+شمالهم ال investors مثلا okay انا
+
+309
+00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,780
+مش عارفة انا لأ بتكون شارية مثلا انا مش حابب ال ..
+
+310
+00:24:13,780 --> 00:24:23,340
+okay read it okay go home and read it سهلة
+
+311
+00:24:23,340 --> 00:24:30,680
+انتبهوا معاها هلا احنا في عندنا طلاب اختارنا افضل
+
+312
+00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:35,760
+تلات طالباتتمام؟ هدول أخدناهم ال benchmark تبعنا
+
+313
+00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:40,660
+ايش ال benchmark؟ benchmark يعني بقياس هلأ كل تلات
+
+314
+00:24:40,660 --> 00:24:45,300
+شهور بنعمل مراجعة للصف لأن أفضل تلات شهور .. تلات
+
+315
+00:24:45,300 --> 00:24:48,120
+.. واحدة كسرت من البنات زي ما حكت بنستبدلها بواحدة
+
+316
+00:24:48,120 --> 00:24:52,540
+أخرى وبالتالي ال benchmark تبعنا بيصير الطالبتين
+
+317
+00:24:52,540 --> 00:24:55,260
+اللي ضالهم زائد الطالبة اللي كسرت أخدنا واحدة
+
+318
+00:24:55,260 --> 00:24:59,200
+بدلها هلأ أنا as investors هذا ال market هيك as
+
+319
+00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:03,500
+investorsbecause there is a change in the index فى
+
+320
+00:25:03,500 --> 00:25:07,840
+تغير فى ال index صار so I'm try to copy this بحاول
+
+321
+00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:13,840
+أنا أقلد أقلدهم عندهم كان أول a و b و c بعد تلت
+
+322
+00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:18,380
+شهور راحوا راجعوا ال index صار عندهم a و b و e أنا
+
+323
+00:25:18,380 --> 00:25:22,280
+ك investors still عندي a و b و c لكن because I'm
+
+324
+00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,240
+mimicking the index لأنه أنا بتقلد هذا so I have
+
+325
+00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:32,300
+to sell c and buy eلازم أبيع ال C because C is
+
+326
+00:25:32,300 --> 00:25:36,920
+less equality or the least equality أقل جودة so
+
+327
+00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:43,040
+leave it and bring the new company سيبوها و جيبوا
+
+328
+00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:49,490
+الشركة الجديدة okay for more understandinggo to
+
+329
+00:25:49,490 --> 00:25:53,530
+science direct and quote my name اكتبوا اسمي
+
+330
+00:25:53,530 --> 00:26:00,670
+هتجدوا في two three articles explain how this work
+
+331
+00:26:00,670 --> 00:26:02,910
+روح على science direct www
+
+332
+00:26:15,060 --> 00:26:17,780
+بتيجيكوا www.sciencedirect.com ادخلوا عليها
+
+333
+00:26:17,780 --> 00:26:22,920
+بيجيكوا ال author اكتبوا اسمه حيجيكم some articles
+
+334
+00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:27,940
+بعض ال articles بعض الأبحاث show you how how the
+
+335
+00:26:27,940 --> 00:26:32,660
+index is built كيف ال index بنعمل هذا للناس اللي
+
+336
+00:26:32,660 --> 00:26:37,440
+بدها information يعني بدها معلومات by
+
+337
+00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:42,730
+index we have timebuy exchange traded funds buy
+
+338
+00:26:42,730 --> 00:26:45,930
+exchange traded funds I will explain this in next
+
+339
+00:26:45,930 --> 00:26:48,990
+chapter which is related to the mutual funds
+
+340
+00:26:48,990 --> 00:26:56,570
+exchange traded funds it means it looks like the
+
+341
+00:26:56,570 --> 00:27:01,730
+mutual funds تشبه صناديخ الاستثمارOkay they adjust
+
+342
+00:27:01,730 --> 00:27:07,190
+some investors they create small portfolios and
+
+343
+00:27:07,190 --> 00:27:10,550
+they rebalance these portfolios according to the
+
+344
+00:27:10,550 --> 00:27:13,670
+changes in the index يعني بعض المستثمرين بيوجدوا
+
+345
+00:27:13,670 --> 00:27:16,730
+هذه المحافظة الصغيرة و هذه المحافظة الصغيرة بتكون
+
+346
+00:27:16,730 --> 00:27:20,910
+تقلد ال index و أيش بيستغير بال index هم بيحاولوا
+
+347
+00:27:20,910 --> 00:27:26,070
+يغيروا في ال portfolios تبعتهم other indexes
+
+348
+00:27:26,070 --> 00:27:30,330
+مؤشرات أخرىفي عندنا other indexes، في عندنا New
+
+349
+00:27:30,330 --> 00:27:34,090
+York Stock Exchange Composite، في عندنا Nasdaq
+
+350
+00:27:34,090 --> 00:27:39,590
+Composite، ال .. ال Nasdaq هذا مؤشر صناعي، مؤشر
+
+351
+00:27:39,590 --> 00:27:43,090
+مهم و هذا يعتبر من تاني أكبر سوق في الولايات
+
+352
+00:27:43,090 --> 00:27:49,320
+المتحدة الأمريكية، عندنا الاخدوا معلومات عنهم يعني
+
+353
+00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:53,400
+اعرفوهم بس Wilshire 5000 يعني مش هاسألكم عنهم كتير
+
+354
+00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:57,920
+ال foreign indexes غير الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية
+
+355
+00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,760
+في مؤشر ال Nikkei هذا مؤشر مهم بتاع Japan بتاع
+
+356
+00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,420
+اليابان مؤشر Tokyo في عندنا ال Fotsi one hundred
+
+357
+00:28:05,420 --> 00:28:10,280
+ال Fotsi تبع لندن طبعا هذا بيشمل تقريبا 25% من
+
+358
+00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:14,600
+الشركات في العالمعنا ال bags تبع ألمانيا وفي عندنا
+
+359
+00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,400
+ال hang sing تبع هونج كونج وفي عندنا ال TSX تبع
+
+360
+00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,840
+كندا في عندنا ال TSE تبع أستنبول stock exchange,
+
+361
+00:28:21,100 --> 00:28:25,220
+we have TAV تبع تل أفيف وعندنا القدس تبع ال في
+
+362
+00:28:25,220 --> 00:28:30,220
+Alexandria and Cairo in Egypt, we have in Amman,
+
+363
+00:28:30,380 --> 00:28:38,280
+Jordan, we have the Karachi in PakistanYou have
+
+364
+00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:43,780
+many indices in the world any financial markets
+
+365
+00:28:43,780 --> 00:28:48,220
+have to have index مافيششي financial market مايله
+
+366
+00:28:48,220 --> 00:28:53,880
+index okay سواء كان CAC, CAC40, DAGs ولا كان
+
+367
+00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,940
+Nikkei ولا كان Dow Jones ولا كان S&P500 and
+
+368
+00:28:57,940 --> 00:29:05,150
+derivative markets I think II talk about the
+
+369
+00:29:05,150 --> 00:29:10,710
+derivative markets اللي هو أسواق المشتقات أسواق
+
+370
+00:29:10,710 --> 00:29:15,330
+المشتقات derivatives
+
+371
+00:29:15,330 --> 00:29:19,840
+as I explained before in the in chapter oneزي ما
+
+372
+00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:23,780
+احنا حكينا ب chapter one, we have options, we have
+
+373
+00:29:23,780 --> 00:29:27,080
+future, we have swap and we have forwards فى عندنا
+
+374
+00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,700
+هدول الأربع أنواع، so I'm not going in details
+
+375
+00:29:29,700 --> 00:29:34,860
+about this because we will have more details in
+
+376
+00:29:34,860 --> 00:29:37,520
+the chapters, no, today I'm going to finish this
+
+377
+00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,480
+chapter options and futures provide payoff that
+
+378
+00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,000
+depend on the values of other assets, we explain
+
+379
+00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:48,070
+thisit means the value of options or the value of
+
+380
+00:29:48,070 --> 00:29:52,070
+derivatives is derived from the financial assets
+
+381
+00:29:52,070 --> 00:29:58,610
+particularly the derivatives invested in the
+
+382
+00:29:58,610 --> 00:30:01,550
+changes of the price يعني ال derivatives المشتقات
+
+383
+00:30:01,550 --> 00:30:06,570
+فقط بتستثمر في الأسعار ما بتستثمر في ال real
+
+384
+00:30:06,570 --> 00:30:10,270
+assets a derivative is a security that gets its
+
+385
+00:30:10,270 --> 00:30:12,390
+value from the value of another asset and we
+
+386
+00:30:12,390 --> 00:30:16,360
+explained thisthe first one in the option option
+
+387
+00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,420
+have two types في عندنا ال call و في عندنا ال bot
+
+388
+00:30:20,420 --> 00:30:23,140
+في عندنا نوعين من ال .. من ال options الخيارات في
+
+389
+00:30:23,140 --> 00:30:26,020
+عندنا ال call option و في عندنا ال bot option ال
+
+390
+00:30:26,020 --> 00:30:28,260
+call option you are buyer و ال bot option you are
+
+391
+00:30:28,260 --> 00:30:31,220
+seller يعني ال call option أنت بتشتري في ال buy
+
+392
+00:30:31,220 --> 00:30:35,620
+option you are بتبيع يعني في الأولى أنت بتشتري و
+
+393
+00:30:35,620 --> 00:30:39,460
+في الثانية احنا بنبيعand the definition is right
+
+394
+00:30:39,460 --> 00:30:42,080
+to buy underlying asset at the strike or exercise
+
+395
+00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:45,760
+price strike or exercise price هو لسعر التثبيت
+
+396
+00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,620
+يعني زي ما احنا حكينا انه بنثبت سعر يعني مثلا
+
+397
+00:30:49,620 --> 00:30:55,360
+بنشتري stock ايه على تلاتين دولار but this is in
+
+398
+00:30:55,360 --> 00:31:01,500
+the futureso the strike price is 30 we have to pay
+
+399
+00:31:01,500 --> 00:31:05,500
+a premium دفترض انه two dollar so the price the
+
+400
+00:31:05,500 --> 00:31:09,620
+strike price 30 plus two which is equal 32 it
+
+401
+00:31:09,620 --> 00:31:11,920
+doesn't matter it doesn't matter what is the price
+
+402
+00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,680
+in the future مابيعنناش ايش السعر في المستقبل we
+
+403
+00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:19,520
+fix the price على 32 30 plus two two is the
+
+404
+00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:23,620
+premiumjust go back to the chapter one and you
+
+405
+00:31:23,620 --> 00:31:26,280
+will understand how it works value of calls
+
+406
+00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:31,380
+decrease as strike prices increase ال value of
+
+407
+00:31:31,380 --> 00:31:36,200
+calls decrease قيمة ال call اللي هو الشراء بتنخفض
+
+408
+00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:41,680
+كل ما زاد سعر ال option
+
+409
+00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:49,640
+okay and the opposite البط عكسه تماما البط هي
+
+410
+00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:55,040
+البيعيعني مثلا انا حكيت انه بدى اشتري السعر على 32
+
+411
+00:31:55,040 --> 00:32:00,120
+في واحد بالطرف الآخر ببيع بده يعمل اللي هو bought
+
+412
+00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,860
+option اللي هو بيع ال bought option is right to
+
+413
+00:32:03,860 --> 00:32:07,060
+sell careful here right to buy and right to sell
+
+414
+00:32:07,060 --> 00:32:13,460
+يعني احنا بدنا نبيع السهم طب هلأ اللي بده يبيع
+
+415
+00:32:13,460 --> 00:32:21,190
+السهم بخاف السهم ينخفض ولا يرتفعينخفض so he go to
+
+416
+00:32:21,190 --> 00:32:24,870
+the option market to hedge against the decrease of
+
+417
+00:32:24,870 --> 00:32:29,910
+the financial markets عشان يتحوط ضد الانخفاض يعني
+
+418
+00:32:29,910 --> 00:32:32,750
+الناس اللي بيروحوا على ال bot option بيروحوا عشان
+
+419
+00:32:32,750 --> 00:32:37,750
+يتحوطوا ضد انخفاض السعر الناس اللي بدخلوا بال call
+
+420
+00:32:37,750 --> 00:32:45,050
+option هم بتحوطوا ضد ارتفاع السعر يعني عكس بعضand
+
+421
+00:32:45,050 --> 00:32:48,790
+again try to sell underlying asset at the strike
+
+422
+00:32:48,790 --> 00:32:53,230
+or exercise price طبعا بتفق مع بعض انا برضه انه
+
+423
+00:32:53,230 --> 00:32:59,310
+السعر مثلا تلاتين اذا كان ال strike بس هنا ال
+
+424
+00:32:59,310 --> 00:33:04,950
+premium بتسميها discount خصم يعني اذا كانت هنا
+
+425
+00:33:04,950 --> 00:33:07,970
+premium ده تكون هنا ايش discount بدل ما هي تلاتين
+
+426
+00:33:07,970 --> 00:33:16,620
+بتصير كام تمانية و عشرينبس هذا هو الفرق value
+
+427
+00:33:16,620 --> 00:33:21,180
+of bots increase with the strike price يعني هنا
+
+428
+00:33:21,180 --> 00:33:26,080
+قيمة ال bots بتنخفض بتزيد بس هنا قيمة ال call
+
+429
+00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:31,760
+بتزيد عكسهم تماما المهم
+
+430
+00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:39,300
+المهم نفهم بال .. بال options بال options ال call
+
+431
+00:33:39,300 --> 00:33:43,120
+options و ال bot option ال call يعني شراء ال bot
+
+432
+00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:47,800
+هو بيع بال call option أنه أنا بدخل ضد ارتفاع
+
+433
+00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,320
+الأسعار بال bot option أنا بدخل ضد انخفاض الأسعار
+
+434
+00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:59,460
+ال futures ال futures هي تشبه ال option يعني هاي
+
+435
+00:33:59,460 --> 00:34:04,440
+المستقبلية تشبه ال optionوكمان حكيناها ب chapter
+
+436
+00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:08,380
+one لكن الفرق هي مافيش فيه premium و مافيش فيها
+
+437
+00:34:08,380 --> 00:34:13,800
+discount مافيش فيه علاوة خلاص نتسبت سعر نفترض ان
+
+438
+00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:18,060
+احنا سبتناها تلاتين there
+
+439
+00:34:18,060 --> 00:34:21,740
+is no premium there is no discount خلاص and we
+
+440
+00:34:21,740 --> 00:34:27,200
+have to exerciseو لازم احنا ننفذ بال option why it
+
+441
+00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,300
+is called option because we have to exercise or
+
+442
+00:34:30,300 --> 00:34:36,900
+not يعني اننا حق ننفذ او لأ اذا ما نفذناش بتروح
+
+443
+00:34:36,900 --> 00:34:40,140
+علينا ال premium or ال discount but in the future
+
+444
+00:34:40,140 --> 00:34:44,540
+you have to exercise exercise يعني ننفذ يعني ال
+
+445
+00:34:44,540 --> 00:34:48,500
+future لازم احنا ننفذ a future contract calls for
+
+446
+00:34:48,500 --> 00:34:55,220
+delivery of an assetsat a specific time a specific
+
+447
+00:34:55,220 --> 00:34:58,380
+delivery or maturity date for an agreed upon price
+
+448
+00:34:58,380 --> 00:35:01,360
+called the future price to be paid at the contract
+
+449
+00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:09,480
+maturity يعني مثلا في ال future ثبتنا السعر تلاتين
+
+450
+00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:14,420
+ثبتناه هلا نبدأ نشوف إيش الأسعار هتصير في اليوم
+
+451
+00:35:14,420 --> 00:35:19,290
+الأول التاني التالت الرابع till the maturityال
+
+452
+00:35:19,290 --> 00:35:23,330
+maturity ايش ال maturity يعني الاستحقار هلأ بنشوف
+
+453
+00:35:23,330 --> 00:35:27,790
+السعر السعر صار thirty one طب عم نحسب ال profit و
+
+454
+00:35:27,790 --> 00:35:33,510
+المال PL الربح و الخسارة تلاتين خسرنا ولا ربحنا
+
+455
+00:35:33,510 --> 00:35:39,230
+ربحنا واحد طيب تاني يوم صارت نفترض تسعة و عشرين
+
+456
+00:35:39,230 --> 00:35:45,170
+اتنين و تلاتين خمس و تلاتين تمانية و عشرين و هتزا
+
+457
+00:35:45,170 --> 00:35:50,830
+اليوم التانيتسعة و عشرين خسرنا واحد minus one لو
+
+458
+00:35:50,830 --> 00:35:55,790
+أجينا احنا عاملنا balance هيك balance هنا ربح one
+
+459
+00:35:55,790 --> 00:36:01,810
+هنا zero يعني ربحنا واحد و خسرنا واحد zero طيب
+
+460
+00:36:01,810 --> 00:36:05,570
+باليوم التاسعة اتنين و تلاتين ربحنا اتنين دايما
+
+461
+00:36:05,570 --> 00:36:09,390
+على exercise ربحنا اتنين ال balance تبعتنا اتنين
+
+462
+00:36:09,390 --> 00:36:14,530
+خمسة و تلاتين ربحنا five فال balance تبعنا بيصير
+
+463
+00:36:14,530 --> 00:36:20,320
+كان sevenخمسة و اتنين سبعة هلأ ال تمانية و عشرين
+
+464
+00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:25,900
+خسرنا تمانية و عشرين minus twoبيظل معنا خمسة and
+
+465
+00:36:25,900 --> 00:36:29,360
+so on اخر ال maturity date بيحسبوا كم احنا ربحنا
+
+466
+00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,480
+او خسرنا and they give it to the investors
+
+467
+00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:35,660
+وبيعطوها لل investors باخر اليوم بيحسبوا كم ربحنا
+
+468
+00:36:35,660 --> 00:36:39,260
+او خسرنا وبالتالي بيقدروا طبعا انتوا مالكمش بال
+
+469
+00:36:39,260 --> 00:36:42,420
+balance لان I think you may get confused from
+
+470
+00:36:42,420 --> 00:36:45,460
+understanding the balance just understand the
+
+471
+00:36:45,460 --> 00:36:48,620
+profit and loss يعني بدكم تعرفوا كيف الربح و
+
+472
+00:36:48,620 --> 00:36:53,600
+الخسارة طيب
+
+473
+00:36:55,910 --> 00:37:00,290
+احنا في ال future contract بناخد شغلة اسمة long
+
+474
+00:37:00,290 --> 00:37:06,770
+position و short position البناس مش مطلوب منك بس
+
+475
+00:37:06,770 --> 00:37:12,230
+كيف حسبتي بتروح بتجمع هدول واحد واحد واحد ناقص
+
+476
+00:37:12,230 --> 00:37:16,490
+واحد سفر سهل واحد ناقص واحد سفر و اتنين اتنين واحد
+
+477
+00:37:16,490 --> 00:37:20,530
+ناقص واحد سفر و اتنين و خمسة سبعة بس جمعيهم جمع
+
+478
+00:37:20,530 --> 00:37:24,160
+عاديأنا صار سبعة و انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+479
+00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:25,320
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+480
+00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:25,720
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+481
+00:37:25,720 --> 00:37:30,140
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+482
+00:37:30,140 --> 00:37:30,260
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+483
+00:37:30,260 --> 00:37:33,980
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+484
+00:37:33,980 --> 00:37:34,000
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+485
+00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:34,000
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+486
+00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:34,560
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+487
+00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:51,420
+انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+488
+00:37:51,420 --> 00:37:55,580
+اناyou go short لما بيحكوا في ال financial market
+
+489
+00:37:55,580 --> 00:37:58,800
+you go short it means you sell you go long it
+
+490
+00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:02,700
+means buy افهموا ما دول مصطلحات ال financial
+
+491
+00:38:02,700 --> 00:38:07,640
+markets it's new for you يعني لو تترجموها ميه
+
+492
+00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:11,660
+الترجمة long مش هتعرفوها buy و sell مظبوط ولا لأ
+
+493
+00:38:11,660 --> 00:38:18,700
+long و short okay هلا الفرق بين ال option و ال
+
+494
+00:38:18,700 --> 00:38:19,060
+future
+
+495
+00:38:23,570 --> 00:38:29,390
+long buy و short sell it means in long you are
+
+496
+00:38:29,390 --> 00:38:32,750
+take the delivery take delivery at maturity take
+
+497
+00:38:32,750 --> 00:38:38,210
+يعني بناخد يعني احنا buy صح ولا لأ لما بناخد we
+
+498
+00:38:38,210 --> 00:38:43,390
+buy when make delivery يعني بنعطي معناه الكلام we
+
+499
+00:38:43,390 --> 00:38:49,300
+sell okay بنبيعالفرق بين ال option و ال future
+
+500
+00:38:49,300 --> 00:38:55,120
+الفرق الأول option is right يعني ممكن و لأ يعني
+
+501
+00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,000
+ممكن نفذ و ممكن ما ننفذ it is right but not
+
+502
+00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:02,980
+obligation لكن مش شرط لازم ننفذ to buy or sell
+
+503
+00:39:02,980 --> 00:39:07,790
+option is exerciseonly when it is profitable يعني
+
+504
+00:39:07,790 --> 00:39:10,990
+بس بننفذ لما يصير في عنا ربح بننفذش مع الكلام we
+
+505
+00:39:10,990 --> 00:39:13,790
+lose only the premium يعني هنخسر بس ال premium
+
+506
+00:39:13,790 --> 00:39:17,110
+option must be purchased لازم نشتري ال option
+
+507
+00:39:17,110 --> 00:39:21,510
+نشتري ال call و بنبيع ال bot the premium is the
+
+508
+00:39:21,510 --> 00:39:24,870
+price of the option itself ال premium نفسها سعر ال
+
+509
+00:39:24,870 --> 00:39:29,370
+option لأن احنا فقط بندفع ال premium لكن ال future
+
+510
+00:39:29,370 --> 00:39:34,010
+contract we have toobliged to make or to take
+
+511
+00:39:34,010 --> 00:39:38,290
+delivery لازم لازم لازم نروح يا اما ان انا اما
+
+512
+00:39:38,290 --> 00:39:41,190
+ننفذ او ننفذ يعني so you don't have any option
+
+513
+00:39:41,190 --> 00:39:45,890
+ماعناش any option so you have to exercise long
+
+514
+00:39:45,890 --> 00:39:51,450
+position must buy زي ما احنا شرحناها لازم نشتري at
+
+515
+00:39:51,450 --> 00:39:55,470
+the future prices short position must sell okay
+
+516
+00:39:56,420 --> 00:39:59,300
+just accept donation احنا ال call option حكينا
+
+517
+00:39:59,300 --> 00:40:03,040
+فيها buy ال bot option حكينا فيها sell future
+
+518
+00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:07,000
+contracts are entered into without cost مابتكلفناش
+
+519
+00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:12,060
+اشي just set the price لكن بال options دفعنا
+
+520
+00:40:12,060 --> 00:40:16,080
+premium او discount بس ال future you just fix the
+
+521
+00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:16,400
+price
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cfd6eb430741695089a88bc29e52f4e8aa6608ec
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 5029, "start": 20.97, "end": 50.29, "text": "بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم نكمل احنا بال chapter three we are talk in the previous meeting we talk about the investment investment banking process يعني الإجراءات بتاعة ال investment bank في ال primary market وحكي عن ال primary market هي السوق الأولي okay حكينا بال shelf registration أخر مرة واضح اليوم بنا نركز على ال investment banking", "tokens": [3555, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 8717, 24793, 1211, 1975, 5016, 8315, 20666, 7187, 1045, 321, 366, 751, 294, 264, 3894, 3440, 321, 751, 466, 264, 6078, 6078, 18261, 1399, 37495, 22653, 33688, 7435, 2288, 16606, 9307, 39894, 995, 27884, 2423, 6078, 3765, 8978, 2423, 6194, 2142, 4032, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 6194, 2142, 39896, 21136, 30543, 16247, 12610, 1829, 1392, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 20666, 15222, 16847, 5551, 34740, 3714, 25720, 4032, 46958, 5016, 45595, 20498, 4724, 8315, 8717, 31747, 11622, 15844, 2423, 6078, 18261], 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"temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 20, "seek": 48065, "start": 462.71, "end": 480.65, "text": "So it is like a valuable information about the company or about the pricing of the stock يعني بتساعدنا ان احنا نعرف كداش الأسعار يعني مثلا لو احنا اجينا بدنا نسوق منتج في السوق وشوفنا ان الناس they are not interested فاحنا بنحاول نزل السعر", "tokens": [6455, 309, 307, 411, 257, 8263, 1589, 466, 264, 2237, 420, 466, 264, 17621, 295, 264, 4127, 37495, 22653, 39894, 3794, 995, 22488, 8315, 16472, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 3615, 28480, 9122, 3215, 33599, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 37495, 22653, 50113, 15040, 45164, 1975, 5016, 8315, 1975, 7435, 1829, 8315, 47525, 8315, 8717, 3794, 30543, 9154, 2655, 7435, 8978, 21136, 30543, 4032, 8592, 38688, 8315, 16472, 2423, 8315, 3794, 436, 366, 406, 3102, 6156, 39319, 8315, 44945, 5016, 995, 12610, 8717, 11622, 1211, 21136, 3615, 2288], "avg_logprob": -0.12922053946845832, "compression_ratio": 1.5405405405405406, "no_speech_prob": 6.556510925292969e-07, "words": 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" the", "probability": 0.93408203125}, {"start": 494.52, "end": 494.98, "word": " underlying", "probability": 0.59375}, {"start": 494.98, "end": 495.56, "word": " stock", "probability": 0.83544921875}, {"start": 495.56, "end": 496.54, "word": " بتساعدهم", "probability": 0.89677734375}, {"start": 496.54, "end": 496.82, "word": " حتى", "probability": 0.915283203125}, {"start": 496.82, "end": 497.38, "word": " يعرفوا", "probability": 0.9744466145833334}, {"start": 497.38, "end": 498.28, "word": " السعر", "probability": 0.9951171875}, {"start": 498.28, "end": 499.4, "word": " الحقيقي", "probability": 0.9715169270833334}, {"start": 499.4, "end": 500.46, "word": " لل", "probability": 0.64892578125}, {"start": 500.46, "end": 501.26, "word": " investors", "probability": 0.94677734375}, {"start": 501.26, "end": 501.82, "word": " تبعتهم", "probability": 0.954833984375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 22, "seek": 52217, "start": 503.5, "end": 522.18, "text": "general speaking from the short investment point of view من وجهة نظر استثمار قصيرة أجل investors prefer the IBO to invest just only one day يعني من وجهة نظر استثمار قصيرة الأجل المستثمرين بيفضل استثمار بال IBO", "tokens": [1766, 2790, 4124, 490, 264, 2099, 6078, 935, 295, 1910, 9154, 49610, 3224, 3660, 8717, 19913, 2288, 44713, 12984, 2304, 9640, 12174, 9381, 48923, 5551, 7435, 1211, 11519, 4382, 264, 286, 15893, 281, 1963, 445, 787, 472, 786, 37495, 22653, 9154, 49610, 3224, 3660, 8717, 19913, 2288, 44713, 12984, 2304, 9640, 12174, 9381, 48923, 16247, 7435, 1211, 9673, 14851, 12984, 29973, 9957, 4724, 33911, 11242, 1211, 44713, 12984, 2304, 9640, 20666, 286, 15893], "avg_logprob": -0.13524070804989016, "compression_ratio": 1.591160220994475, "no_speech_prob": 8.344650268554688e-07, "words": [{"start": 503.5, "end": 503.96, "word": "general", "probability": 0.51617431640625}, {"start": 503.96, "end": 504.48, "word": " speaking", "probability": 0.64599609375}, {"start": 504.48, "end": 505.76, "word": " from", 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{"start": 511.76, "end": 512.94, "word": " investors", "probability": 0.27392578125}, {"start": 512.94, "end": 513.52, "word": " prefer", "probability": 0.9189453125}, {"start": 513.52, "end": 514.08, "word": " the", "probability": 0.79150390625}, {"start": 514.08, "end": 514.64, "word": " IBO", "probability": 0.90234375}, {"start": 514.64, "end": 514.96, "word": " to", "probability": 0.970703125}, {"start": 514.96, "end": 515.28, "word": " invest", "probability": 0.84765625}, {"start": 515.28, "end": 515.58, "word": " just", "probability": 0.79443359375}, {"start": 515.58, "end": 515.84, "word": " only", "probability": 0.765625}, {"start": 515.84, "end": 516.0, "word": " one", "probability": 0.9013671875}, {"start": 516.0, "end": 516.28, "word": " day", "probability": 0.95458984375}, {"start": 516.28, "end": 517.3, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.799560546875}, {"start": 517.3, "end": 517.4, "word": " من", "probability": 0.98876953125}, {"start": 517.4, "end": 517.64, "word": " وجهة", "probability": 0.9580078125}, {"start": 517.64, "end": 517.9, "word": " نظر", "probability": 0.98828125}, {"start": 517.9, "end": 518.4, "word": " استثمار", "probability": 0.9664306640625}, {"start": 518.4, "end": 518.72, "word": " قصيرة", "probability": 0.9895833333333334}, {"start": 518.72, "end": 519.22, "word": " الأجل", "probability": 0.9832356770833334}, {"start": 519.22, "end": 520.42, "word": " المستثمرين", "probability": 0.97978515625}, {"start": 520.42, "end": 520.84, "word": " بيفضل", "probability": 0.8531494140625}, {"start": 520.84, "end": 521.46, "word": " استثمار", "probability": 0.87213134765625}, {"start": 521.46, "end": 521.64, "word": " بال", "probability": 0.84033203125}, {"start": 521.64, "end": 522.18, "word": " IBO", "probability": 0.9697265625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 23, "seek": 53740, "start": 523.02, "end": 537.4, "text": "لمدة يوم واحد انتبهوا يعني لو انت لو احنا بين خيارين to invest in IBO ايش يعني IBO يعني شركة جديدة or to invest in non IBO", 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"بيكون فيه سعر تعديل للسعر و الشركة الجديدة بتكون إلها مخاطر أكتر من الشركة القديمة أو الشركة اللي أصلا متأثرة القديمة لو طلعنا احنا على ال chart هان بتشوفوا عندنا ال blue و ال black الأزرق و ال .. ال non issuers يعني ال non IPO شوفوا ال black واضح انه in the long term is less than the non IPO and clear", "tokens": [3555, 1829, 30544, 8978, 3224, 8608, 3615, 2288, 37279, 16254, 1211, 24976, 3794, 3615, 2288, 4032, 25124, 31747, 3660, 25724, 16254, 41891, 39894, 30544, 11933, 1211, 11296, 3714, 9778, 41193, 2288, 5551, 4117, 2655, 2288, 9154, 25124, 31747, 3660, 25062, 16254, 46007, 34051, 25124, 31747, 3660, 13672, 1829, 5551, 9381, 15040, 44650, 10721, 12984, 25720, 25062, 16254, 46007, 45164, 23032, 1211, 3615, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 15844, 2423, 6927, 8032, 7649, 39894, 8592, 38688, 14407, 43242, 8315, 2423, 3344, 4032, 2423, 2211, 16247, 11622, 2288, 4587, 4032, 2423, 4386, 2423, 2107, 1620, 84, 433, 37495, 22653, 2423, 2107, 50220, 13412, 38688, 14407, 2423, 2211, 4032, 46958, 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755.46, "word": " شوفوا", "probability": 0.9329427083333334}, {"start": 755.46, "end": 755.54, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.98486328125}, {"start": 755.54, "end": 755.92, "word": " black", "probability": 0.9189453125}, {"start": 755.92, "end": 756.9, "word": " واضح", "probability": 0.9500325520833334}, {"start": 756.9, "end": 757.26, "word": " انه", "probability": 0.713623046875}, {"start": 757.26, "end": 758.08, "word": " in", "probability": 0.884765625}, {"start": 758.08, "end": 758.2, "word": " the", "probability": 0.89990234375}, {"start": 758.2, "end": 758.38, "word": " long", "probability": 0.95263671875}, {"start": 758.38, "end": 758.62, "word": " term", "probability": 0.8984375}, {"start": 758.62, "end": 758.86, "word": " is", "probability": 0.85400390625}, {"start": 758.86, "end": 759.1, "word": " less", "probability": 0.96044921875}, {"start": 759.1, "end": 759.36, "word": " than", "probability": 0.94677734375}, {"start": 759.36, "end": 759.7, "word": " the", "probability": 0.853515625}, {"start": 759.7, "end": 760.32, "word": " non", "probability": 0.64892578125}, {"start": 760.32, "end": 760.78, "word": " IPO", "probability": 0.9365234375}, {"start": 760.78, "end": 762.04, "word": " and", "probability": 0.884765625}, {"start": 762.04, "end": 762.42, "word": " clear", "probability": 0.5625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 33, "seek": 79302, "start": 766.14, "end": 793.02, "text": "Okay now how securities are traded ال non IPO شركات لم تصدر شركات قديمة يعني لم تصدر أسهم جديدة من خفض و بعدين برتفع هي بال IPO هو هي ال IPO ال non IPO شركة قديمة يعني أصلا خلاص هي مش بال secondary market", "tokens": [8297, 586, 577, 38597, 366, 27157, 2423, 2107, 50220, 13412, 31747, 9307, 32767, 6055, 9381, 3215, 2288, 13412, 31747, 9307, 12174, 16254, 46007, 37495, 22653, 32767, 6055, 9381, 3215, 2288, 5551, 3794, 16095, 10874, 16254, 41891, 9154, 16490, 5172, 11242, 4032, 39182, 9957, 4724, 43500, 5172, 3615, 39896, 20666, 50220, 31439, 39896, 2423, 50220, 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they prefer to invest just only one day في ال IBO بعدين بيصير jumping بال price اش في عندك سؤال هان؟ private placements private placements معايا بنات هان؟ private placements اللي هو بيسموه اكتتاب خاص", "tokens": [45340, 4587, 9381, 23328, 8032, 7649, 20666, 4386, 20666, 995, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 12174, 9381, 13546, 5551, 7435, 1211, 16472, 3224, 20193, 5016, 19913, 14407, 16472, 3224, 16490, 1211, 6027, 7251, 20498, 36764, 24401, 2423, 11519, 436, 4382, 281, 1963, 445, 787, 472, 786, 8978, 2423, 286, 15893, 39182, 9957, 4724, 1829, 9381, 13546, 11233, 20666, 3218, 1975, 8592, 8978, 43242, 4117, 8608, 33604, 6027, 8032, 7649, 22807, 4551, 20831, 6400, 4551, 20831, 6400, 20449, 995, 25528, 4724, 8315, 2655, 8032, 7649, 22807, 4551, 20831, 6400, 13672, 1829, 31439, 4724, 1829, 38251, 2407, 3224, 1975, 4117, 2655, 2655, 16758, 16490, 33546], "avg_logprob": -0.19933252253578704, "compression_ratio": 1.608, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 796.19, "end": 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paper بنشتري treasury bills بنشتري bonds بنشتري stocks any securities it depends on the type of markets حسب نوع السوق the first type of market is direct cash", "tokens": [874, 5190, 295, 8383, 577, 38597, 366, 27157, 309, 5946, 322, 264, 3467, 295, 8383, 9122, 33911, 7251, 39237, 2423, 9307, 7435, 9640, 16070, 2655, 3615, 10943, 1211, 20666, 10721, 3794, 14407, 4587, 9673, 6027, 10632, 37495, 22653, 8032, 1211, 10721, 44945, 8592, 2655, 16572, 50113, 15040, 6841, 3035, 44945, 8592, 2655, 16572, 47213, 12433, 44945, 8592, 2655, 16572, 14713, 44945, 8592, 2655, 16572, 12966, 604, 38597, 309, 5946, 322, 264, 2010, 295, 8383, 11331, 35457, 8717, 45367, 21136, 30543, 264, 700, 2010, 295, 2142, 307, 2047, 6388], "avg_logprob": -0.1761762627055136, "compression_ratio": 1.7455357142857142, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 890.81, "end": 891.65, "word": "types", "probability": 0.64990234375}, {"start": 891.65, "end": 891.77, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9833984375}, {"start": 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الشخص اللي موجود بده يبيع موجود عند dealer آخر وبالتالي ال computer system is locating هو ال computer system هيدور لوحده without the human intervention بدون ما يدخل الإنسان and locate who are the buyers and who are the sellers مش هيدخل الإنسان ويروح يدور على الكلام هذا ال computer can do it", "tokens": [2304, 8592, 13412, 2288, 9566, 16472, 3224, 1975, 8315, 6156, 3615, 15040, 13672, 1829, 7251, 30544, 36764, 24401, 3714, 29245, 23328, 47525, 3224, 7251, 21292, 3615, 3714, 43020, 23758, 25124, 9778, 9381, 13672, 1829, 3714, 29245, 23328, 47525, 3224, 7251, 21292, 3615, 3714, 29245, 23328, 43242, 24896, 19753, 34740, 46599, 6027, 2655, 6027, 1829, 2423, 3820, 1185, 307, 1628, 990, 31439, 2423, 3820, 1185, 39896, 3215, 13063, 45164, 24401, 3224, 1553, 264, 1952, 13176, 47525, 11536, 19446, 7251, 3215, 9778, 1211, 33688, 1863, 3794, 7649, 293, 22370, 567, 366, 264, 23465, 293, 567, 366, 264, 31276, 37893, 39896, 3215, 9778, 1211, 33688, 1863, 3794, 7649, 4032, 13546, 2407, 5016, 7251, 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"probability": 0.9856770833333334}, {"start": 1081.54, "end": 1081.64, "word": " على", "probability": 0.6767578125}, {"start": 1081.64, "end": 1081.86, "word": " الكلام", "probability": 0.8157552083333334}, {"start": 1081.86, "end": 1082.04, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.52880859375}, {"start": 1082.04, "end": 1082.14, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 1082.14, "end": 1082.44, "word": " computer", "probability": 0.9814453125}, {"start": 1082.44, "end": 1083.28, "word": " can", "probability": 0.509765625}, {"start": 1083.28, "end": 1083.54, "word": " do", "probability": 0.96044921875}, {"start": 1083.54, "end": 1083.82, "word": " it", "probability": 0.97265625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 46, "seek": 111200, "start": 1086.84, "end": 1112.0, "text": "similar to like this okay عادة ال buyer هم ايش بيسووا بيحطوا الأسعار تبعتهم و ال seller بيحطوا الأسعار تبعتهم and we match between them that's it okay this is broker market the third market is known as the dealer markets dealer markets what is the difference between dealer market and broker markets this difference is very tiny", "tokens": [30937, 2202, 281, 411, 341, 1392, 6225, 18513, 3660, 2423, 24645, 8032, 2304, 1975, 1829, 8592, 4724, 1829, 3794, 2407, 14407, 4724, 1829, 5016, 9566, 14407, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 6055, 3555, 34268, 16095, 4032, 2423, 23600, 4724, 1829, 5016, 9566, 14407, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 6055, 3555, 34268, 16095, 293, 321, 2995, 1296, 552, 300, 311, 309, 1392, 341, 307, 26502, 2142, 264, 2636, 2142, 307, 2570, 382, 264, 24896, 8383, 24896, 8383, 437, 307, 264, 2649, 1296, 24896, 2142, 293, 26502, 8383, 341, 2649, 307, 588, 5870], "avg_logprob": -0.2024305588669247, "compression_ratio": 1.8647342995169083, "no_speech_prob": 1.7881393432617188e-07, "words": [{"start": 1086.84, "end": 1087.48, "word": "similar", "probability": 0.829833984375}, {"start": 1087.48, "end": 1087.72, "word": " to", "probability": 0.70263671875}, {"start": 1087.72, "end": 1088.06, "word": " 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example okay", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 5870, 37495, 22653, 4724, 3794, 1829, 9566, 37495, 22653, 27188, 2288, 4587, 49374, 2423, 26502, 4032, 49374, 2423, 24896, 307, 588, 5870, 293, 512, 561, 436, 483, 9019, 490, 264, 3701, 295, 264, 26502, 2142, 293, 264, 24896, 2142, 293, 2171, 436, 2890, 493, 1296, 552, 46599, 3615, 11242, 21542, 6027, 9307, 4724, 1829, 30544, 14407, 1975, 2655, 3215, 9778, 1211, 14407, 2423, 26502, 2142, 4032, 2423, 24896, 2142, 574, 574, 412, 341, 1365, 1392], "avg_logprob": -0.11408253147816047, "compression_ratio": 1.6818181818181819, "no_speech_prob": 1.8477439880371094e-06, "words": [{"start": 1113.24, "end": 1113.64, "word": "يعني", "probability": 0.9189453125}, {"start": 1113.64, "end": 1114.12, "word": " tiny", "probability": 0.93603515625}, {"start": 1114.12, "end": 1114.58, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.958251953125}, {"start": 1114.58, "end": 1116.46, "word": " بسيط", "probability": 0.967529296875}, {"start": 1116.46, "end": 1117.8, "word": " 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{"start": 2153.79, "end": 2154.57, "word": " احتمال", "probability": 0.9608154296875}, {"start": 2154.57, "end": 2154.93, "word": " الأسعار", "probability": 0.87396240234375}, {"start": 2154.93, "end": 2155.23, "word": " تطلع", "probability": 0.9921875}, {"start": 2155.23, "end": 2155.45, "word": " لأن", "probability": 0.81005859375}, {"start": 2155.45, "end": 2155.67, "word": " في", "probability": 0.572265625}, {"start": 2155.67, "end": 2156.95, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.978759765625}, {"start": 2156.95, "end": 2157.43, "word": " معلومات", "probability": 0.9857177734375}, {"start": 2157.43, "end": 2157.75, "word": " بتحكي", "probability": 0.9542236328125}, {"start": 2157.75, "end": 2157.99, "word": " هيك", "probability": 0.686279296875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 86, "seek": 218741, "start": 2158.61, "end": 2187.41, "text": "الكلب ت price 31 و 41 فهي لما بدأت فيه تبيع على 31 فتحط order في السوق sell بيع مثلا على 32 عشان تربح دولار او دولار في كل جرام فممكن السعر يصل و ممكن 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"probability": 0.80078125}, {"start": 2159.47, "end": 2159.69, "word": " price", "probability": 0.5185546875}, {"start": 2159.69, "end": 2160.09, "word": " 31", "probability": 0.489013671875}, {"start": 2160.09, "end": 2160.37, "word": " و", "probability": 0.3994140625}, {"start": 2160.37, "end": 2160.79, "word": " 41", "probability": 0.65673828125}, {"start": 2160.79, "end": 2161.17, "word": " فهي", "probability": 0.6717122395833334}, {"start": 2161.17, "end": 2161.31, "word": " لما", "probability": 0.905029296875}, {"start": 2161.31, "end": 2161.67, "word": " بدأت", "probability": 0.698974609375}, {"start": 2161.67, "end": 2161.79, "word": " فيه", "probability": 0.528076171875}, {"start": 2161.79, "end": 2162.05, "word": " تبيع", "probability": 0.85107421875}, {"start": 2162.05, "end": 2162.21, "word": " على", "probability": 0.50732421875}, {"start": 2162.21, "end": 2162.63, "word": " 31", "probability": 0.900390625}, {"start": 2162.63, "end": 2164.43, "word": " فتحط", "probability": 0.780029296875}, {"start": 2164.43, "end": 2164.73, "word": " order", "probability": 0.85302734375}, {"start": 2164.73, "end": 2164.89, "word": " في", "probability": 0.92724609375}, {"start": 2164.89, "end": 2165.17, "word": " السوق", "probability": 0.969482421875}, {"start": 2165.17, "end": 2165.71, "word": " sell", "probability": 0.50537109375}, {"start": 2165.71, "end": 2167.77, "word": " بيع", "probability": 0.638671875}, {"start": 2167.77, "end": 2168.45, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.9208984375}, {"start": 2168.45, "end": 2168.71, "word": " على", "probability": 0.7265625}, {"start": 2168.71, "end": 2169.85, "word": " 32", "probability": 0.89208984375}, {"start": 2169.85, "end": 2172.07, "word": " عشان", "probability": 0.9444986979166666}, {"start": 2172.07, "end": 2172.53, "word": " تربح", "probability": 0.927734375}, {"start": 2172.53, "end": 2172.87, "word": " دولار", "probability": 0.9593098958333334}, {"start": 2172.87, "end": 2173.45, "word": " او", "probability": 0.801513671875}, {"start": 2173.45, "end": 2174.41, "word": " دولار", "probability": 0.9475911458333334}, {"start": 2174.41, "end": 2174.53, "word": " في", "probability": 0.86083984375}, {"start": 2174.53, "end": 2174.73, "word": " كل", "probability": 0.97607421875}, {"start": 2174.73, "end": 2175.17, "word": " جرام", "probability": 0.7876790364583334}, {"start": 2175.17, "end": 2176.63, "word": " فممكن", "probability": 0.9371744791666666}, {"start": 2176.63, "end": 2177.23, "word": " السعر", "probability": 0.9754231770833334}, {"start": 2177.23, "end": 2177.67, "word": " يصل", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 2177.67, "end": 2177.79, "word": " و", "probability": 0.89990234375}, {"start": 2177.79, "end": 2177.97, "word": " ممكن", "probability": 0.77197265625}, {"start": 2177.97, "end": 2178.53, "word": " مايصلش", "probability": 0.8724365234375}, {"start": 2178.53, "end": 2179.59, "word": " هاي", "probability": 0.48883056640625}, {"start": 2179.59, "end": 2180.05, "word": " معناها", "probability": 0.9303385416666666}, {"start": 2180.05, "end": 2180.19, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.87109375}, {"start": 2180.19, "end": 2180.79, "word": " contingent", "probability": 0.852294921875}, {"start": 2180.79, "end": 2182.07, "word": " price", "probability": 0.904296875}, {"start": 2182.07, "end": 2184.49, "word": " تبقينا", "probability": 0.528839111328125}, {"start": 2184.49, "end": 2184.79, "word": " هك", "probability": 0.72314453125}, {"start": 2184.79, "end": 2184.93, "word": " و", "probability": 0.89794921875}, {"start": 2184.93, "end": 2185.01, "word": " ان", "probability": 0.64453125}, {"start": 2185.01, "end": 2185.17, "word": " شاء", "probability": 0.974609375}, {"start": 2185.17, "end": 2185.23, "word": " الله", "probability": 0.958984375}, {"start": 2185.23, "end": 2185.61, "word": " اللقاء", "probability": 0.8512369791666666}, {"start": 2185.61, "end": 2186.01, "word": " الجاي", "probability": 0.73046875}, {"start": 2186.01, "end": 2187.41, "word": " هينكمل", 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e715e14effce5d39994ed053175174703b836efc
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+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1928 @@
+1
+00:00:20,970 --> 00:00:25,070
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم نكمل احنا بال chapter three
+
+2
+00:00:25,070 --> 00:00:29,170
+we are talk in the previous meeting we talk about
+
+3
+00:00:29,170 --> 00:00:33,290
+the investment investment banking process يعني
+
+4
+00:00:33,290 --> 00:00:36,230
+الإجراءات بتاعة ال investment bank في ال primary
+
+5
+00:00:36,230 --> 00:00:39,390
+market وحكي عن ال primary market هي السوق الأولي
+
+6
+00:00:39,390 --> 00:00:43,070
+okay حكينا
+
+7
+00:00:43,070 --> 00:00:49,370
+بال shelf registration أخر مرة واضح اليوم بنا نركز
+
+8
+00:00:49,370 --> 00:00:53,300
+على ال investment bankingعمليات ال investment
+
+9
+00:00:53,300 --> 00:00:57,340
+banking و نحكي على ال bid ask spread كيف بيحددوا
+
+10
+00:00:57,340 --> 00:01:01,680
+الأسعار ال bid و ال bid و ال ask في السوق المعني
+
+11
+00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,000
+طبعا الان نيجي نحكي private placement I think I
+
+12
+00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,200
+explained private placement did I so I explained
+
+13
+00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:12,060
+this and I said it's cheaper than public it's okay
+
+14
+00:01:15,630 --> 00:01:18,870
+Okay initial public offerings نحكي بال initial
+
+15
+00:01:18,870 --> 00:01:24,110
+public offerings حكينا ال investment banking the
+
+16
+00:01:24,110 --> 00:01:28,350
+investment bank is in charge on market the initial
+
+17
+00:01:28,350 --> 00:01:32,010
+public offerings يعني هم البنوك الاستثمار مسئولة
+
+18
+00:01:32,010 --> 00:01:35,910
+عن تصويخ اللي هو الإزارات الأولية initial public
+
+19
+00:01:35,910 --> 00:01:40,990
+offerings وفي process لازم نمشي فيهand this
+
+20
+00:01:40,990 --> 00:01:43,910
+process زي ما انتوا شايفين includes one two three
+
+21
+00:01:43,910 --> 00:01:47,670
+main steps في تلات خطوات رئيسية the first step is
+
+22
+00:01:47,670 --> 00:01:51,430
+road shows أول خطوة هي ال road shows ال road shows
+
+23
+00:01:51,430 --> 00:01:57,580
+زي مثلا انه انا road shows انه اوضح الطريقأوضح
+
+24
+00:01:57,580 --> 00:02:01,940
+الطريق يعني الشركة الاستثمار او بنك الاستثمار
+
+25
+00:02:01,940 --> 00:02:07,680
+بياخد ال prospectus الدليل و بيعمل publicizing to
+
+26
+00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:14,060
+the underwriting بيعمل نشر لتوعية الاستثمار يعني
+
+27
+00:02:14,060 --> 00:02:19,260
+ان هم بيروحوا على شركات التجارية و شركات الصناعية
+
+28
+00:02:19,260 --> 00:02:23,080
+و كبار المستثمرين و بيعرضوا عليهم الشركة الجديدة
+
+29
+00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:27,760
+هذه بيسموها road showsبوضحولهم شو أهداف الشركة و
+
+30
+00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,720
+الأسعار المتوقعة و إيش المجالات الاستثمار اللي
+
+31
+00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:34,620
+فيها حتى يعني to encourage them to invest in this
+
+32
+00:02:34,620 --> 00:02:38,330
+companyإشجعوهم يستثمروا في هذه الشركة فهذه الطريقة
+
+33
+00:02:38,330 --> 00:02:41,670
+بيسموها road shows إذا ال road shows the main
+
+34
+00:02:41,670 --> 00:02:44,970
+important of road shows is to publicize a new
+
+35
+00:02:44,970 --> 00:02:48,350
+offerings من ترجمةها زي ما انتوا شايفين road shows
+
+36
+00:02:48,350 --> 00:02:52,230
+يعني هي road shows توضيح الطريق ال main objective
+
+37
+00:02:52,230 --> 00:02:59,530
+مين هم المؤسسين كيف المستقبل تبع الشركةمين ال ..
+
+38
+00:02:59,530 --> 00:03:02,310
+إيش ال .. المنتجات اللي هتخدمها الشركة؟ شو هتستفيد
+
+39
+00:03:02,310 --> 00:03:04,790
+الشركة؟ إيش الأرباح المتوقعة على الشركة هذه؟ إيش
+
+40
+00:03:04,790 --> 00:03:08,250
+الناس اللي هتشتغل في هذه الشركة؟ وبتالي هم يعني زي
+
+41
+00:03:08,250 --> 00:03:13,370
+بيعملوهم ترويج لهذه الشركة و .. و .. و نشر توعية
+
+42
+00:03:13,370 --> 00:03:16,910
+بهذه الشركة فهي بيسموها road shows في ال road
+
+43
+00:03:16,910 --> 00:03:22,450
+showsلنفترض انه احنا ال .. انا ال underwriter انا
+
+44
+00:03:22,450 --> 00:03:24,930
+ال investment bank انا شركة الاستثمار و انتوا
+
+45
+00:03:24,930 --> 00:03:29,310
+الجمهور ال .. التجار و المستثمرين و أصحاب البنوك و
+
+46
+00:03:29,310 --> 00:03:32,970
+أصحاب المؤسسات فانا بروح لوحد و بعمل list فيهم
+
+47
+00:03:32,970 --> 00:03:40,730
+اللي هو انتوا نعتبركم المؤسسات بعمل list okay
+
+48
+00:03:41,090 --> 00:03:47,070
+مثلا A, B, C, D, E and so on باجي لأول واحد مثلا A
+
+49
+00:03:47,070 --> 00:03:50,390
+باجي لال أخت اللي هى بحكي لها والله احنا عندنا
+
+50
+00:03:50,390 --> 00:03:55,850
+شركة هادى و بتنتج كذا و استثماراتها في المستقبل
+
+51
+00:03:55,850 --> 00:04:01,350
+هتكون كويسة فانت شو رأيك ف maybe she agree on this
+
+52
+00:04:01,350 --> 00:04:07,080
+ف I put like a clickI go to the second company or
+
+53
+00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:08,880
+the second institution or the second investor
+
+54
+00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:14,080
+maybe he or she disagree ممكن انه disagree okay
+
+55
+00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:18,860
+the third and so on so in this way I know the
+
+56
+00:04:18,860 --> 00:04:22,940
+demand of on the company بشوف الطلب على الشركة
+
+57
+00:04:22,940 --> 00:04:26,400
+الجديدة and this is not book building هاي طريقة
+
+58
+00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:30,280
+بسموها إيش book building book building is to know
+
+59
+00:04:30,280 --> 00:04:35,100
+what is the demandfrom the investors or from the
+
+60
+00:04:35,100 --> 00:04:38,000
+local companies or international companies انا
+
+61
+00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,720
+بروح بزيرهم يعني زي واحد بيبقى عنده منتج جديد بروح
+
+62
+00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,040
+البقالات اللي في البلد بيقولوا شو رأيكم بهالمنتجات
+
+63
+00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,920
+فالناس اللي بتوافق على المنتج بيعمل عليها click
+
+64
+00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,540
+والناس اللي ما بتوافق بحط عليها X بحيث انه to
+
+65
+00:04:50,540 --> 00:04:56,360
+evaluate the demand on this product and the same
+
+66
+00:04:56,360 --> 00:05:01,390
+thing in the investment bankingفعرفنا ال road
+
+67
+00:05:01,390 --> 00:05:06,010
+shows وعرفنا ال book building and
+
+68
+00:05:06,010 --> 00:05:08,770
+the degree of investor .. the .. the degree of
+
+69
+00:05:08,770 --> 00:05:11,910
+investor or the interest of the investors let's go
+
+70
+00:05:11,910 --> 00:05:14,310
+back to the .. to the list خلينا نرجع لل list هاي
+
+71
+00:05:14,310 --> 00:05:23,680
+okay نرجع ل a مثلا a said yes a said yesthere is
+
+72
+00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,060
+yes and there is really yes there is a difference
+
+73
+00:05:27,060 --> 00:05:32,000
+between yes and really yes what it means يعني إيش
+
+74
+00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,700
+معناها مثلا روحنا لل .. رجعنا لبنتهاي و حكت okay
+
+75
+00:05:35,700 --> 00:05:40,720
+بس حكت بالخجل بالخجل اه طبعا منيح و زين و
+
+76
+00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:43,680
+الاستثمار طبعا جيد في هالشركة هاي طبعا عمركم و
+
+77
+00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:49,300
+احنا دعمينكم و توكلوا على اللهيعني okay she
+
+78
+00:05:49,300 --> 00:05:53,520
+doesn't want to say no she prefer to say yes but
+
+79
+00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:58,170
+in reality she hide noلكن بالحقيقة هي بتخفي ال no
+
+80
+00:05:58,170 --> 00:06:03,390
+okay but when .. so the second time we reevaluate
+
+81
+00:06:03,390 --> 00:06:07,890
+the rest .. the list with people who said yes and
+
+82
+00:06:07,890 --> 00:06:10,770
+see what is the actual interest to invest in the
+
+83
+00:06:10,770 --> 00:06:14,370
+company حتى نشوف مين هم ال actual interest مين هم
+
+84
+00:06:14,370 --> 00:06:16,730
+الناس اللي فعلا بدهم يستثمروا في الشركة هذه some
+
+85
+00:06:16,730 --> 00:06:20,630
+people from .. هدول حكوا because they don't want
+
+86
+00:06:20,630 --> 00:06:28,430
+to say no okay حكوا okay لكن مش ..real okay طبعا
+
+87
+00:06:28,430 --> 00:06:32,730
+يعني زي ما احنا بنحكي بال .. بال .. بالعربي بنحكي
+
+88
+00:06:32,730 --> 00:06:35,350
+انه شو رايك انه هاي المشروع اللي بنعمله وش رايك
+
+89
+00:06:35,350 --> 00:06:39,150
+تستخدمه نقول ان شاء الله so ان شاء الله it doesn't
+
+90
+00:06:39,150 --> 00:06:47,490
+mean yes it sometimes it's hiddenOkay, so the
+
+91
+00:06:47,490 --> 00:06:51,450
+thing is to reevaluate the rest whether these
+
+92
+00:06:51,450 --> 00:06:55,630
+people are really investors or not So the third
+
+93
+00:06:55,630 --> 00:06:59,530
+step is what is the degree of investor interest in
+
+94
+00:06:59,530 --> 00:07:01,410
+the new offering provides valuable price
+
+95
+00:07:01,410 --> 00:07:05,150
+information الان نيجي أحكي هذا okay, this is
+
+96
+00:07:05,150 --> 00:07:07,390
+really yes and this is really yes and this is
+
+97
+00:07:07,390 --> 00:07:11,090
+really yes So we have three out of for instance
+
+98
+00:07:11,090 --> 00:07:13,510
+one hundred people are interested to invest in
+
+99
+00:07:13,510 --> 00:07:19,160
+this companyهدول بدهم فعلا and this is help us to
+
+100
+00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,400
+evaluate what is the real price of this company
+
+101
+00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:27,360
+بتساعدنا أنه نعرف السعر الحقيقي للشركة لأنه لما
+
+102
+00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:32,160
+بصير ال demand بزيد أكيد السعر بتحسن فزي أنتم
+
+103
+00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:38,020
+شايفين هذا ال process هاي الطريقة it help us to
+
+104
+00:07:38,020 --> 00:07:43,870
+evaluate the real price of the companySo it is
+
+105
+00:07:43,870 --> 00:07:46,850
+like a valuable information about the company or
+
+106
+00:07:46,850 --> 00:07:50,490
+about the pricing of the stock يعني بتساعدنا ان
+
+107
+00:07:50,490 --> 00:07:54,310
+احنا نعرف كداش الأسعار يعني مثلا لو احنا اجينا
+
+108
+00:07:54,310 --> 00:07:58,350
+بدنا نسوق منتج في السوق وشوفنا ان الناس they are
+
+109
+00:07:58,350 --> 00:08:02,100
+not interested فاحنا بنحاول نزل السعرلكن لما شوفنا
+
+110
+00:08:02,100 --> 00:08:04,900
+الناس are interested فبنحاول احنا نعمل the .. to
+
+111
+00:08:04,900 --> 00:08:08,160
+push the price up، بنحاول نرفع السعر لهفو، فهي
+
+112
+00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:11,060
+this is important .. this process is important for
+
+113
+00:08:11,060 --> 00:08:13,840
+the investment bank to determine the actual price
+
+114
+00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:18,280
+of the underlying stock بتساعدهم حتى يعرفوا السعر
+
+115
+00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:25,760
+الحقيقي لل investors تبعتهمgeneral speaking from
+
+116
+00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,820
+the short investment point of view من وجهة نظر
+
+117
+00:08:29,820 --> 00:08:34,960
+استثمار قصيرة أجل investors prefer the IBO to
+
+118
+00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:38,400
+invest just only one day يعني من وجهة نظر استثمار
+
+119
+00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:43,480
+قصيرة الأجل المستثمرين بيفضل استثمار بال IBOلمدة
+
+120
+00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:48,880
+يوم واحد انتبهوا يعني لو انت لو احنا بين خيارين to
+
+121
+00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:53,920
+invest in IBO ايش يعني IBO يعني شركة جديدة or to
+
+122
+00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,400
+invest in non IBO
+
+123
+00:09:00,930 --> 00:09:03,750
+So we have two options to invest in IBO initial
+
+124
+00:09:03,750 --> 00:09:08,410
+public offerings or to invest in non IBO if your
+
+125
+00:09:08,410 --> 00:09:12,750
+time frame or long or your time horizon يعني إذا
+
+126
+00:09:12,750 --> 00:09:15,570
+كانت الفترة الزمنية الاستثمار short time investors
+
+127
+00:09:15,570 --> 00:09:21,990
+prefer to invest in the IBO إذا كان هو .. إذا كان
+
+128
+00:09:21,990 --> 00:09:26,420
+فترة .. بدهم يستثمروا شهر تانand particularly one
+
+129
+00:09:26,420 --> 00:09:30,780
+day ليوم واحد so they prefer to invest in IBO
+
+130
+00:09:30,780 --> 00:09:35,400
+initial public offerings why because the
+
+131
+00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,580
+investment bank the investment bank بنك الاستثمار
+
+132
+00:09:38,580 --> 00:09:44,220
+it try to make the the price of underwriting lower
+
+133
+00:09:44,220 --> 00:09:49,010
+than the expected priceOkay يعني البنوك الاستثمار
+
+134
+00:09:49,010 --> 00:09:53,110
+عادة بتعمل سعر ال IPO أقل من سعر المتوقع من
+
+135
+00:09:53,110 --> 00:09:56,130
+المستثمرين So it's like encouraging them to invest
+
+136
+00:09:56,130 --> 00:10:01,410
+in this company Once the underlying clause or the
+
+137
+00:10:01,410 --> 00:10:05,350
+underwriting clause the price is jump مجرد ما
+
+138
+00:10:05,350 --> 00:10:09,290
+يخلصوا ال underwriting مكون ال price عمل jumping
+
+139
+00:10:09,290 --> 00:10:15,680
+مثال كبير لشركة Linuxشركة Linux في شركة يعني عملوا
+
+140
+00:10:15,680 --> 00:10:20,480
+عليها دراسة في عملة IBO ف ال price ال expected
+
+141
+00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:27,320
+price was I think 30$ but it jumped to more than
+
+142
+00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:33,320
+200 something or 289 look just only on one day
+
+143
+00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,580
+بيوم واحد ال investors they buy this or they
+
+144
+00:10:36,580 --> 00:10:41,120
+bought this at 30في نهاية هذا اليوم، قمت بالتسجيل
+
+145
+00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:49,680
+إلى 289 ميكين أكتر من 600% كرم عادية، عملين أكتر
+
+146
+00:10:49,680 --> 00:10:53,860
+من ستمية في المية، فهذا استثمار جيد في ال IBO فقط
+
+147
+00:10:53,860 --> 00:10:57,920
+لأي يوم، ليوم واحد بس، يستثمرون. أنا أتكلم عن
+
+148
+00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:04,140
+الـShort Term، من الانتقال اللواني، الـNon-IBO
+
+149
+00:11:04,140 --> 00:11:11,470
+أفضل من الـIBObecause the IBOA representing a
+
+150
+00:11:11,470 --> 00:11:14,930
+newly company or a newly established company which
+
+151
+00:11:14,930 --> 00:11:19,690
+may subject of risk عادة الشركات الجديدة بتكون
+
+152
+00:11:19,690 --> 00:11:21,850
+فيها risk عالي أكتر من الشركات القديمة
+
+153
+00:11:25,210 --> 00:11:28,970
+إذا كنت تفكر في الاستثمار في زمن طويل، فمن المفضل
+
+154
+00:11:28,970 --> 00:11:35,470
+ان تستثمر في شركات غير IPO و ليس شركات IPO. لكن
+
+155
+00:11:35,470 --> 00:11:39,130
+إذا كنت تفكر في الاستثمار في زمن قصير، فمن المفضل
+
+156
+00:11:39,130 --> 00:11:44,390
+ان تستثمر في IPO و ليس شركة غير IPO. أعتقد أن هذا
+
+157
+00:11:44,390 --> 00:11:44,950
+صحيح.
+
+158
+00:11:48,550 --> 00:11:56,610
+ترجمت؟فى المدى القصير المستثمرين بيفضله ال IBO فى
+
+159
+00:11:56,610 --> 00:12:01,830
+المدى البعيد بيفضله ال non IBO ليش؟ فى المدى
+
+160
+00:12:01,830 --> 00:12:06,790
+القصير ال investment bank بنك الاستثمار بعمل السعر
+
+161
+00:12:06,790 --> 00:12:14,000
+الإصدار أقل من السعر المتوقع بالمدى البعيدبيكون
+
+162
+00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:19,280
+فيه سعر تعديل للسعر و الشركة الجديدة بتكون إلها
+
+163
+00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:23,400
+مخاطر أكتر من الشركة القديمة أو الشركة اللي أصلا
+
+164
+00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:26,340
+متأثرة القديمة لو طلعنا احنا على ال chart هان
+
+165
+00:12:26,340 --> 00:12:32,540
+بتشوفوا عندنا ال blue و ال black الأزرق و ال .. ال
+
+166
+00:12:32,540 --> 00:12:36,900
+non issuers يعني ال non IPO شوفوا ال black واضح
+
+167
+00:12:36,900 --> 00:12:42,040
+انه in the long term is less than the non IPO and
+
+168
+00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:42,420
+clear
+
+169
+00:12:46,140 --> 00:12:54,380
+Okay now how securities are traded ال non IPO
+
+170
+00:12:54,380 --> 00:12:59,440
+شركات لم تصدر شركات قديمة يعني لم تصدر أسهم جديدة
+
+171
+00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:07,140
+من خفض و بعدين برتفع هي بال IPO هو هي ال IPO ال
+
+172
+00:13:07,140 --> 00:13:11,780
+non IPO شركة قديمة يعني أصلا خلاص هي مش بال
+
+173
+00:13:11,780 --> 00:13:13,020
+secondary market
+
+174
+00:13:16,190 --> 00:13:20,790
+المقصود هان بال .. بالاستثمار قصير أجل انه لاحظوا
+
+175
+00:13:20,790 --> 00:13:25,330
+انه خلال يوم واحد ال investors they prefer to
+
+176
+00:13:25,330 --> 00:13:28,750
+invest just only one day في ال IBO بعدين بيصير
+
+177
+00:13:28,750 --> 00:13:34,290
+jumping بال price اش في عندك سؤال هان؟ private
+
+178
+00:13:34,290 --> 00:13:38,770
+placements private placements معايا بنات هان؟
+
+179
+00:13:38,770 --> 00:13:44,110
+private placements اللي هو بيسموه اكتتاب خاصهذا
+
+180
+00:13:44,110 --> 00:13:47,070
+الاكتتاب الخاص is only for a particular investors
+
+181
+00:13:47,070 --> 00:13:51,890
+and particular institutions اه يعني الشركة بتصدر
+
+182
+00:13:51,890 --> 00:13:59,510
+أسهم أو سندات لأ خاصة بناس معينين okay و مين هدول
+
+183
+00:13:59,510 --> 00:14:04,130
+الناس عادة إلهم سمعة في الشركة عندهم خبرة في
+
+184
+00:14:04,130 --> 00:14:07,150
+الاستثمارات okay so it makes prestigious position
+
+185
+00:14:07,150 --> 00:14:13,410
+for the companyوكمان لإنه these shares are not
+
+186
+00:14:13,410 --> 00:14:16,250
+traded in the secondary markets this is first the
+
+187
+00:14:16,250 --> 00:14:20,510
+second thing is it is cheaper than the public the
+
+188
+00:14:20,510 --> 00:14:22,910
+initial public offerings أرخص because the
+
+189
+00:14:22,910 --> 00:14:27,910
+commission of the investment bank is less than the
+
+190
+00:14:27,910 --> 00:14:30,890
+commission in the case of initial public offerings
+
+191
+00:14:30,890 --> 00:14:40,590
+okay types of markets how securities are tradedكيف
+
+192
+00:14:40,590 --> 00:14:44,450
+بتتم البيع و الشراء في الأسواق المالية and be
+
+193
+00:14:44,450 --> 00:14:48,730
+careful in here and listen to me انتبهوا علي و
+
+194
+00:14:48,730 --> 00:14:53,970
+فاتحوا بالكمtypes of markets how securities are
+
+195
+00:14:53,970 --> 00:14:57,270
+traded it depends on the types of markets كيف يتم
+
+196
+00:14:57,270 --> 00:15:00,650
+الاتجار والتعامل بالأسواق المالية يعني هلأ بنشتري
+
+197
+00:15:00,650 --> 00:15:03,990
+مثلا commercial paper بنشتري treasury bills بنشتري
+
+198
+00:15:03,990 --> 00:15:07,770
+bonds بنشتري stocks any securities it depends on
+
+199
+00:15:07,770 --> 00:15:11,570
+the type of markets حسب نوع السوق the first type
+
+200
+00:15:11,570 --> 00:15:15,450
+of market is direct cashdirect cash is not applied
+
+201
+00:15:15,450 --> 00:15:17,870
+in the financial markets مش مطبقة في ال financial
+
+202
+00:15:17,870 --> 00:15:20,670
+markets it is very rare to apply in the financial
+
+203
+00:15:20,670 --> 00:15:25,150
+markets اكتير يعني مش موجودة يعني نادرة جدا تتطبق
+
+204
+00:15:25,150 --> 00:15:29,570
+في الأسواق المالية what it means direct cashإيش
+
+205
+00:15:29,570 --> 00:15:32,150
+معناها؟ إنه إحنا نبحث بحث مباشر كيف يعني لو إحنا
+
+206
+00:15:32,150 --> 00:15:35,510
+بدنا نشتري مثلا غصالة ولا تلاجة بنروح نلف على
+
+207
+00:15:35,510 --> 00:15:39,290
+البلد و ندور على التلاجة و نشوف there is no need
+
+208
+00:15:39,290 --> 00:15:42,870
+to use intermediate institutions مافيش حاجة إنه
+
+209
+00:15:42,870 --> 00:15:46,710
+إحنا ندور ع وسيط بنروح على البلد و بنروح بنشوف وين
+
+210
+00:15:46,710 --> 00:15:50,630
+بيعين التلاجات أو الغسالات and we find this okay
+
+211
+00:15:50,630 --> 00:15:54,130
+this is known as direct search buyers and sellers
+
+212
+00:15:54,130 --> 00:15:58,020
+seek each other التانين بيدوروا على بعضOkay the
+
+213
+00:15:58,020 --> 00:16:02,280
+second one which is more common in the financial
+
+214
+00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,680
+markets هذي مطبقة كتير في ال .. في ال financial
+
+215
+00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:08,280
+market which is known as brokers markets brokers
+
+216
+00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:14,680
+markets brokers it means سمسار يعني أسواق السماسلة
+
+217
+00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:21,140
+what it means brokers markets it means the .. the
+
+218
+00:16:21,140 --> 00:16:25,760
+broker is mediate between the buyers and the
+
+219
+00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:29,290
+sellersيعني ال broker هو متوسط بين ال buyers and
+
+220
+00:16:29,290 --> 00:16:32,750
+sellers okay for instance this guy wants to buy
+
+221
+00:16:32,750 --> 00:16:37,810
+IBM so the broker should locate for one to sell
+
+222
+00:16:37,810 --> 00:16:43,590
+the IBM okay يعني ال .. إذا واحد بده يشتري ال IBM
+
+223
+00:16:43,590 --> 00:16:46,930
+فهو راح يدور على واحد يبيع ال IBM so it's like
+
+224
+00:16:46,930 --> 00:16:51,220
+matching between the buyers and the sellersاه هو
+
+225
+00:16:51,220 --> 00:16:54,900
+دور وح الشغل عادي، يعني مثلا زي مثلا سمسارة
+
+226
+00:16:54,900 --> 00:16:58,280
+الأراضي، سمسار الأراضي بيروح مثلا واحد بيشتري خطة
+
+227
+00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:03,880
+أرض، بيروح بيدور على واحد بيبيع الأرض بق .. the ..
+
+228
+00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:05,840
+the main difference between the real estate
+
+229
+00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:09,600
+broker, real estate أن هو تجار العقارات and the
+
+230
+00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,720
+financial market is little bit different because
+
+231
+00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:17,700
+in the broker market there is no face to facemost
+
+232
+00:17:17,700 --> 00:17:23,520
+of the deals is exercised by using computer system
+
+233
+00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,560
+يعني there is no need to meet the buyers and the
+
+234
+00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,920
+sellers in the same time they can meet up ممكن هم
+
+235
+00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,060
+يلتقيوا within the computer system ممكن هم يلتقوا
+
+236
+00:17:33,060 --> 00:17:36,900
+عبر ال computer system يعني مثلا إنه هذا بيجي بده
+
+237
+00:17:36,900 --> 00:17:40,960
+يشتريمش شرط انه انا فعلا اللي يكون واحد موجود بده
+
+238
+00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,560
+يبيع ممكن هذا الشخص اللي موجود بده يبيع موجود عند
+
+239
+00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:47,220
+dealer آخر وبالتالي ال computer system is locating
+
+240
+00:17:47,220 --> 00:17:50,340
+هو ال computer system هيدور لوحده without the
+
+241
+00:17:50,340 --> 00:17:54,080
+human intervention بدون ما يدخل الإنسان and locate
+
+242
+00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:58,680
+who are the buyers and who are the sellers مش
+
+243
+00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:02,140
+هيدخل الإنسان ويروح يدور على الكلام هذا ال
+
+244
+00:18:02,140 --> 00:18:03,820
+computer can do it
+
+245
+00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:11,060
+similar to like this okay عادة ال buyer هم ايش
+
+246
+00:18:11,060 --> 00:18:13,240
+بيسووا بيحطوا الأسعار تبعتهم و ال seller بيحطوا
+
+247
+00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:16,080
+الأسعار تبعتهم and we match between them that's it
+
+248
+00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:20,080
+okay this
+
+249
+00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,620
+is broker market the third market is known as the
+
+250
+00:18:22,620 --> 00:18:26,960
+dealer markets dealer markets what is the
+
+251
+00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:28,700
+difference between dealer market and broker
+
+252
+00:18:28,700 --> 00:18:34,580
+markets this difference is very tinyيعني tiny يعني
+
+253
+00:18:34,580 --> 00:18:40,180
+بسيط يعني الفرق بين ال broker و بين ال dealer is
+
+254
+00:18:40,180 --> 00:18:43,660
+very tiny and some people they get confused from
+
+255
+00:18:43,660 --> 00:18:47,220
+the understanding of the broker market and the
+
+256
+00:18:47,220 --> 00:18:49,640
+dealer market and sometimes they mix up between
+
+257
+00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:53,700
+them وبعض الحالات بيكونوا اتدخلوا ال broker market
+
+258
+00:18:53,700 --> 00:18:57,160
+و ال dealer market look look at this example okay
+
+259
+00:19:04,310 --> 00:19:10,190
+انظر إلى هذا المثال هنا حسنا، لذا لدينا مصادق هنا
+
+260
+00:19:10,190 --> 00:19:17,610
+ومصادق هنا حسنا؟
+
+261
+00:19:17,610 --> 00:19:24,150
+لذا مصادق ومصادق هناك رجل أساسي مع رجل كبير يعمل
+
+262
+00:19:24,150 --> 00:19:29,410
+.. هذا الرجل الأساسي يعمل كشركة مصادق فهذه اليد
+
+263
+00:19:29,410 --> 00:19:35,650
+هنا وهذه اليد هنا، لذلك أخذه من هنالذلك هذا الشخص
+
+264
+00:19:35,650 --> 00:19:42,690
+يشتري و هذا الشخص يبيع هذا هو نوع من نظام
+
+265
+00:19:42,690 --> 00:19:51,490
+البروكورات لكن في محافظات الشركات ليس هناك حاجة
+
+266
+00:19:51,490 --> 00:19:56,910
+لكي تقارن بين المشتركين و المشتركين إذا على سبيل
+
+267
+00:19:56,910 --> 00:19:58,030
+المثال فقط لدينا مشترك
+
+268
+00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,340
+So what is the dealer should do in this case? The
+
+269
+00:20:04,340 --> 00:20:10,220
+dealer has inventory What it means inventory? It
+
+270
+00:20:10,220 --> 00:20:17,840
+means the dealer here buying to himself from the
+
+271
+00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:23,860
+financial market and when someone askingto .. to
+
+272
+00:20:23,860 --> 00:20:28,300
+sell or to buy he or she can sell and buy from his
+
+273
+00:20:28,300 --> 00:20:31,880
+or her inventory ال inventory .. أه هذا inventory
+
+274
+00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:36,080
+مخزون يعني مثلا أنه مافيش حاجة يروح ي .. يدور ع
+
+275
+00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:40,300
+باق و مشتري في الحالة الأولى أنه ال .. ال .. ال
+
+276
+00:20:40,300 --> 00:20:44,340
+broker لازم يوجد ال .. يوجد الباق و المشتري طب إذا
+
+277
+00:20:44,340 --> 00:20:50,540
+كان just only we have one sideشو نسوي؟ اه في نوع
+
+278
+00:20:50,540 --> 00:20:54,460
+اخر بيسميه ال dealer ال dealer هو فقط مسموح له انه
+
+279
+00:20:54,460 --> 00:20:59,040
+يشتري الحسابه الخاص يعني مثلا يكون عنده يشتري IBM
+
+280
+00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,300
+يشتري general motors okay زي ما انتوا شايفين
+
+281
+00:21:02,300 --> 00:21:06,140
+يشتريوا ياهو و يخليهم عنده لما بيجي واحد بده ياهو
+
+282
+00:21:06,140 --> 00:21:12,020
+بيبيعه لو واحد بده يشتري يعني هذا بده يشتري ياهو
+
+283
+00:21:12,020 --> 00:21:15,640
+فهو بيبيعه لو واحد بده يبيعه بيشتري منه بيشتري منه
+
+284
+00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:20,960
+لحساباته الشخصيةبدون ما يبحث عن طرف آخر why this
+
+285
+00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:27,360
+and this is regulated by the ACE the exchange
+
+286
+00:21:27,360 --> 00:21:34,120
+commission the ACE ممنوع ال ال ال ال broker ممنوع
+
+287
+00:21:34,120 --> 00:21:39,060
+يشتري و يبيع حسابهلازم to find out the two sides
+
+288
+00:21:39,060 --> 00:21:42,240
+of .. of the transaction لازم usually the two
+
+289
+00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:43,980
+sides of the transaction the buyers and the
+
+290
+00:21:43,980 --> 00:21:47,260
+sellers but in the .. in the dealer system there
+
+291
+00:21:47,260 --> 00:21:51,580
+is no need to have two sides we can do it without
+
+292
+00:21:51,580 --> 00:21:56,240
+two sides just only one side how we can do this if
+
+293
+00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,640
+the .. if the dealer has inventory إذا كان عنده
+
+294
+00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,950
+مخزونOkay مثلا اجى هذا بده يشتري Yahoo فبيبيعوا ال
+
+295
+00:22:03,950 --> 00:22:07,010
+Yahoo من مخزونه لو اجوا ناس كتير يشتروا Yahoo
+
+296
+00:22:07,010 --> 00:22:11,250
+شوفوا انتمهوا للمثال اجوا ال Yahoo تبعه اتطلعوا
+
+297
+00:22:11,250 --> 00:22:16,030
+على المنطقة هاي لنفترض انه هذه المنطقة ل Yahoo عدد
+
+298
+00:22:16,030 --> 00:22:22,390
+الأسهم اللي هو عنده في المخزون لشركة Yahoo هلأ هال
+
+299
+00:22:22,390 --> 00:22:28,440
+طبعا اخدوا المستثمرين اشتروا ال Yahoo okayاشتروا
+
+300
+00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:34,500
+الأخر نهار أو يعني في أثناء العمليات إذا انخفض عدد
+
+301
+00:22:34,500 --> 00:22:37,540
+الأسهم الموجودة عنده لنفترض أنه صارت هالمنطقة هذه
+
+302
+00:22:37,540 --> 00:22:46,280
+okay فإيش راح يقرر هو؟ راح يقرر أنه يزيد .. يشتري
+
+303
+00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,960
+طب من وين بيروح بيشتري؟ هلأ بنحكيلكم من وين بدي
+
+304
+00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:58,610
+أشتري okay بيروح بيشتري من .. لأهذا ال real
+
+305
+00:22:58,610 --> 00:23:01,290
+financial markets هذا ال financial market الحقيقي
+
+306
+00:23:01,290 --> 00:23:04,630
+اللي هو New York Stock Exchange in the New York
+
+307
+00:23:04,630 --> 00:23:10,190
+Stock Exchange there is some people known as
+
+308
+00:23:10,190 --> 00:23:15,530
+specialists specialists
+
+309
+00:23:15,530 --> 00:23:20,630
+ايش اسمهم متخصصين specialists for instance he
+
+310
+00:23:20,630 --> 00:23:25,870
+needs to buy Yahoohe should go to the .. to the
+
+311
+00:23:25,870 --> 00:23:28,890
+specialist what it means specialist ايش معناه
+
+312
+00:23:28,890 --> 00:23:32,510
+specialist هذا specialist اللي هو سوق المتخصصين
+
+313
+00:23:32,510 --> 00:23:37,150
+everyone is specialized in a particular stocks
+
+314
+00:23:37,150 --> 00:23:42,690
+يعني كل واحد من هدول اللي شايفينهم هذا بيسموهم
+
+315
+00:23:42,690 --> 00:23:47,610
+seat هذا مقعد اسمها seat كل واحد اللي له مقعد في
+
+316
+00:23:47,610 --> 00:23:53,090
+السوق is specializedto in a particular stocks مثلا
+
+317
+00:23:53,090 --> 00:23:56,890
+هذا متخصص ب IBM مثلا و جينا ل ال motors هذا متخصص
+
+318
+00:23:56,890 --> 00:24:01,330
+ب Yahoo هذا متخصص مثلا ب Google هذا .. و هكذا اذا
+
+319
+00:24:01,330 --> 00:24:04,110
+مابدو يشتري .. فلا لا اذا هاد بدو يشتري ل مين لازم
+
+320
+00:24:04,110 --> 00:24:07,890
+يروح ل مين ل هذا لازم يروح ل .. ل هاد لازم يروح ل
+
+321
+00:24:07,890 --> 00:24:15,510
+اللي متخصص في Yahoo لأ اشتري بأعلى اقل مش بأعلى
+
+322
+00:24:15,510 --> 00:24:21,320
+خلينا نحكي ايوة حسبال specialists هان .. ال
+
+323
+00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:25,520
+specialists هان طبعا هذا موجود .. هذا dealer موجود
+
+324
+00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,940
+في ال united states فى dealer آخر موجود في .. في
+
+325
+00:24:27,940 --> 00:24:32,040
+دبي، dealer آخر موجود في توكيو فال dealers كلهم
+
+326
+00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:38,640
+بتصلوا فهذا عشان يشرلوا يهو فهو بقدر .. هو بحدد
+
+327
+00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,980
+السعر هدول ال specialists هم اللي بيحددوا السعر و
+
+328
+00:24:41,980 --> 00:24:44,380
+هدول بيسموهم ال market makers هدول نوع من أنواع ال
+
+329
+00:24:44,380 --> 00:24:47,380
+market makers هم اللي بيحددوا السوق لإن هدول ال
+
+330
+00:24:47,380 --> 00:24:51,340
+big people يعنيthey know everything هدول واكفين
+
+331
+00:24:51,340 --> 00:24:55,300
+فوق و بتطلع كل واحد بالاخير كل العالم بيجي عندهم
+
+332
+00:24:55,300 --> 00:25:01,660
+okay طبعا عشان يصيروا specialists عشان يصيروا
+
+333
+00:25:01,660 --> 00:25:05,360
+specialists متخصصين they have to have a seat
+
+334
+00:25:05,360 --> 00:25:09,760
+inside the financial market لازم يكون عندهم seat
+
+335
+00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:16,060
+مقعد but this seat is worth more
+
+336
+00:25:16,060 --> 00:25:20,040
+than four million dollarهذا المقعد عشان يكون عندنا
+
+337
+00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:25,240
+مقعد نشتري مقعد لازم ندفع four million dollar a
+
+338
+00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:33,720
+year it depends on the auction حسب المزاد طبعا
+
+339
+00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:38,520
+المقعد بسنة أظن 2008 كان سعره أربعة مليون دولار
+
+340
+00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,970
+okay4 مليون دولار سعر المقعد الواحد في ال
+
+341
+00:25:42,970 --> 00:25:46,490
+financial market what is the benefits of having a
+
+342
+00:25:46,490 --> 00:25:49,610
+seat in the financial market؟ شو ال .. شو الفائدة؟
+
+343
+00:25:49,610 --> 00:25:53,630
+الفائدة انه for each transaction you earn
+
+344
+00:25:53,630 --> 00:25:56,510
+commission في كل transaction، في كل buy and sell
+
+345
+00:25:56,510 --> 00:26:00,470
+بناخد .. بناخد عمولة okay هذا بالنسبة لل
+
+346
+00:26:00,470 --> 00:26:06,670
+specialist خلينا to sum up ان .. ان .. يعني ان ..
+
+347
+00:26:06,670 --> 00:26:10,490
+to sum up specialist هو اللي بخد المشارع؟ اهأه ال
+
+348
+00:26:10,490 --> 00:26:13,110
+specialists بياخدوا و ال .. و ال .. هدول بياخدوا
+
+349
+00:26:13,110 --> 00:26:17,650
+ال commission ال .. ال dealer و ال brokers to sum
+
+350
+00:26:17,650 --> 00:26:21,890
+up يعني نلخص اللي إحنا حكيناها إنه إحنا في ال
+
+351
+00:26:21,890 --> 00:26:24,630
+financial market في عندنا اللي هو direct search
+
+352
+00:26:24,630 --> 00:26:27,470
+حكيناها و هذا it is very rare in the financial
+
+353
+00:26:27,470 --> 00:26:31,110
+market we have the broker .. the broker they have
+
+354
+00:26:31,110 --> 00:26:34,130
+to have buyers and sellers and we have the dealers
+
+355
+00:26:34,130 --> 00:26:37,130
+.. the dealers they buy and sell from their
+
+356
+00:26:37,130 --> 00:26:40,800
+inventoryوهما بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets
+
+357
+00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:47,480
+وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+358
+00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:51,300
+بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم بيشتغلوا
+
+359
+00:26:51,300 --> 00:26:57,840
+داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+360
+00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:58,040
+بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم بيشتغلوا
+
+361
+00:26:58,040 --> 00:26:58,040
+داخل ال financial markets وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال
+
+362
+00:26:58,040 --> 00:26:58,040
+financial markets وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial
+
+363
+00:26:58,040 --> 00:26:58,100
+markets وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+364
+00:26:58,100 --> 00:26:58,100
+بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم بيشتغلوا
+
+365
+00:26:58,100 --> 00:26:58,100
+داخل ال financial markets وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال
+
+366
+00:26:58,100 --> 00:26:58,100
+financial markets وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial
+
+367
+00:26:58,100 --> 00:26:59,860
+markets وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+368
+00:26:59,860 --> 00:27:03,700
+بيشتغلوا داخل ال
+
+369
+00:27:10,170 --> 00:27:19,150
+الفرق بين ال dealer .. لأ الفرق بين ال .. لأ
+
+370
+00:27:19,150 --> 00:27:25,490
+بالظبط هذا ال broker ال dealer هو يعني اعطيكي مثال
+
+371
+00:27:25,490 --> 00:27:30,170
+حكينا سمسار الأراضي هو بشبه ال broker السمسار لكن
+
+372
+00:27:30,170 --> 00:27:34,660
+في تاجر أراضيهو بيشيل الحساب و بيجي الناس بدهم
+
+373
+00:27:34,660 --> 00:27:37,380
+يشتريوا و يبيعوا فهو بيعمل توفيق بناءه and this
+
+374
+00:27:37,380 --> 00:27:40,480
+doesn't mean أنه كمان بيعملش buying and selling
+
+375
+00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,260
+between the .. doesn't match between buyer and
+
+376
+00:27:43,260 --> 00:27:45,920
+seller لأنه مرات ممكن التاجر الأراضي مثلا إيجاله
+
+377
+00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:51,400
+واحد يقول والله أنا بدي قطعة أرض في الشجعية مثلا
+
+378
+00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:55,100
+فهو ماعندهوش فهو يقول okay أنا بدبرلك ففي الحالة
+
+379
+00:27:55,100 --> 00:28:00,100
+هذه he works as a broker هو اشتغل as a brokerيعني
+
+380
+00:28:00,100 --> 00:28:03,000
+ال dealer مسموحله يشتغل broker and dealer in the
+
+381
+00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,960
+same time لكن ال broker just only broker بس
+
+382
+00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:14,660
+مسموحله يعمل broker okay فهي ال ..
+
+383
+00:28:14,660 --> 00:28:17,380
+طبعا تنسوش ال specialist market في عندنا ال
+
+384
+00:28:17,380 --> 00:28:23,300
+auction market ال auction market يعني سوق المزادات
+
+385
+00:28:23,300 --> 00:28:28,120
+مثلا هي stock مثلا IBMبيعملوا سعر افتتاح بيقولوا
+
+386
+00:28:28,120 --> 00:28:31,760
+مثلا سبعتاشر دولار بيصير الكل يزيد سبعتاشر نص
+
+387
+00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:35,460
+سبنتاشر و هكذا this is physical هذا اللي انا عملته
+
+388
+00:28:35,460 --> 00:28:39,140
+هلأ physical nowadays there is no need for
+
+389
+00:28:39,140 --> 00:28:42,900
+physical meeting between the dealers مافيش حاجة
+
+390
+00:28:42,900 --> 00:28:47,520
+انه يلتقوا جسديا physically okay so they can do
+
+391
+00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:51,740
+this by using computer system فهمتوا أيش ال
+
+392
+00:28:51,740 --> 00:28:54,680
+auction market يعني أسواق المزارات okay
+
+393
+00:28:59,310 --> 00:29:03,790
+Okay the bid and ask price ال .. ال broker و ال
+
+394
+00:29:03,790 --> 00:29:08,170
+dealer من وين دربحوا هلأ تشوفوا كيف الاستفادة تبع
+
+395
+00:29:08,170 --> 00:29:21,750
+ال broker و ال dealer في
+
+396
+00:29:21,750 --> 00:29:25,330
+السوق المالي الأسعار تعرض بطريقة ال bid و ال ask
+
+397
+00:29:25,330 --> 00:29:32,570
+okayin the financial market the .. the dealer use
+
+398
+00:29:32,570 --> 00:29:37,530
+the bid and ask pricing system هاي ال dealer okay
+
+399
+00:29:37,530 --> 00:29:42,330
+suggest this bid and ask what it means bid and ask
+
+400
+00:29:42,330 --> 00:29:46,670
+for instance if we have a particular company like
+
+401
+00:29:46,670 --> 00:29:53,290
+this the .. the dealer تبقوا للأسعار ask bid and
+
+402
+00:29:53,290 --> 00:29:58,060
+ask اتطلعوا ال ask زمان أعلى من ال bidال ask أعلى
+
+403
+00:29:58,060 --> 00:30:03,400
+من البيت طيب هلأ في انا طرفين في طرف ال investor
+
+404
+00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,780
+المستثمر اللي بيشتري و طرف ال dealer هذا ال dealer
+
+405
+00:30:06,780 --> 00:30:12,860
+هو بعرض السعر ل investor investor buy at this
+
+406
+00:30:12,860 --> 00:30:17,160
+price then
+
+407
+00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:21,040
+if the investor buy at this price it means the
+
+408
+00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:22,660
+dealer sell at this price
+
+409
+00:30:25,850 --> 00:30:30,250
+وإذا كان المستخدم يبيع في هذا السعر، فالشركة تشتري
+
+410
+00:30:30,250 --> 00:30:34,830
+في هذا السعر، حسنا؟
+
+411
+00:30:34,830 --> 00:30:41,010
+فالشركة تشتري في الـ 19.20 و تبيع في الـ 20،
+
+412
+00:30:41,010 --> 00:30:50,630
+فالنسبة للشركة هي حوالي 80، هذه هي النسبة للشركة،
+
+413
+00:30:50,630 --> 00:30:56,860
+هذه النسبة معروفة كـ Spreadspread يعني الفارق هذا
+
+414
+00:30:56,860 --> 00:31:02,260
+ال profit نسميه spread however for the investor
+
+415
+00:31:02,260 --> 00:31:07,460
+this is known as cost تكلفة
+
+416
+00:31:07,460 --> 00:31:13,300
+خليني أعطيكم مثال لو احنا روحنا ناخد سعر الدهب bid
+
+417
+00:31:13,300 --> 00:31:18,640
+and ask للدهب مثلا واحد و تلاتين و واحد و تلاتين
+
+418
+00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:24,260
+اربعين okay like this طبعا الدهب اليام هي رخيص
+
+419
+00:31:26,740 --> 00:31:31,440
+comparing with the high price in the last one year
+
+420
+00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:35,320
+انا بحكي مقارنة مع السنة اللي فاتت الدهب كتير في
+
+421
+00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:41,460
+.. نزل حوالي 200-300 نقطة okay فطلعوا على سعر
+
+422
+00:31:41,460 --> 00:31:46,880
+الدهب 31 gram و 31.40 مثلا فهلأ اللي هنعطيكوا مثال
+
+423
+00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:53,160
+لو رايحت ست راح تشتري دهب على أي سعر هتشتري؟ على
+
+424
+00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:58,050
+هذا او لا على هذا السعر؟أه تصلعوا buy investor buy
+
+425
+00:31:58,050 --> 00:32:03,470
+على واحد تلاتين اربعين طيب لو راحت اه احنا بنحكي
+
+426
+00:32:03,470 --> 00:32:07,050
+على investor okay هلأ ال investor اشترع واحد
+
+427
+00:32:07,050 --> 00:32:09,790
+تلاتين اربعين هلأ لو أجينا واحدة من هالبنات أخدت
+
+428
+00:32:09,790 --> 00:32:14,630
+ال gram الذهب و راحت بس تشرب خروب من عند ال
+
+429
+00:32:14,630 --> 00:32:19,570
+alcohol هذا و راحت بس شربت الخروب و رجعت حكتله
+
+430
+00:32:19,570 --> 00:32:24,670
+please انا مابدي شيهاأنا بدي أبيعه فقداش حبيع هي
+
+431
+00:32:24,670 --> 00:32:29,410
+.. هيشري منها اوها تلاتين طب كام خسرات؟ هذه تعتبر
+
+432
+00:32:29,410 --> 00:32:35,670
+cost تعتبر ايش؟ تعتبر cost طبعا بالنسبة ال 40 هي
+
+433
+00:32:35,670 --> 00:32:40,930
+ايش؟ الربح لأنه هاي مش السوق المال financial
+
+434
+00:32:40,930 --> 00:32:43,970
+market is not for social services مش للخدمات
+
+435
+00:32:43,970 --> 00:32:47,350
+الاجتماعية مفتوحةطب قولولي والله العظيم انا روحت
+
+436
+00:32:47,350 --> 00:32:50,890
+اشرب من عند الرجال بس خروب قوللي طب روح مهناش دخل
+
+437
+00:32:50,890 --> 00:32:54,110
+فيكي بس هذا السوق بتغير قاعد هو يقولك السوق بتغير
+
+438
+00:32:54,110 --> 00:32:57,670
+يعني ايش .. اه ف you have to take your
+
+439
+00:32:57,670 --> 00:33:03,050
+responsibility اه هذه مسئوليتك okay so this is the
+
+440
+00:33:03,050 --> 00:33:09,070
+bid and ask price نحكي على the types of order لما
+
+441
+00:33:09,070 --> 00:33:14,070
+احنا ندخل السوق المالي the financial marketswe ..
+
+442
+00:33:14,070 --> 00:33:18,870
+we have to use the orders يعني مثلا انتوا بتروحوا
+
+443
+00:33:18,870 --> 00:33:23,570
+على ال .. على السوق بتاع فراساد بتكونوا بتشتريوا
+
+444
+00:33:23,570 --> 00:33:27,830
+بندرة مثلامافيش order قداش ال kilo مثلا ال kilo
+
+445
+00:33:27,830 --> 00:33:31,450
+بتنين شكل تشتريه على طول مافيش مشكلة لكن بال
+
+446
+00:33:31,450 --> 00:33:35,890
+financial market you have to know the orders that
+
+447
+00:33:35,890 --> 00:33:39,110
+applied in the financial market لازم نفهم ال
+
+448
+00:33:39,110 --> 00:33:42,490
+orders اللي مطبقة بال financial market في السوق
+
+449
+00:33:42,490 --> 00:33:46,430
+المالي في عندنا نوعين رئيسية من ال orders في عندنا
+
+450
+00:33:46,430 --> 00:33:54,000
+market order okaymarket order يعني أسعار السوق
+
+451
+00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,220
+الآن the current price now وفي عندنا price
+
+452
+00:33:57,220 --> 00:34:05,380
+contingent order اللي هو الأسعار فيما لو تحققت إذا
+
+453
+00:34:05,380 --> 00:34:10,100
+في عندنا أمرين الأمر الأول market order سعر السوق
+
+454
+00:34:10,100 --> 00:34:14,320
+احنا بنشتري ونبيع على المعروف في السوق السعر الآخر
+
+455
+00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,520
+بحدد ال investors بيعلن رغبته على البيع والشراء
+
+456
+00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:18,840
+عند أسعار هو بدهياها
+
+457
+00:34:21,420 --> 00:34:25,680
+خلينا نفهم المثال هاد انت بوهان طلعوا على المثال
+
+458
+00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:29,960
+هاد تبع الدهب، قداسة الدهب واحد و تلاتين و واحد و
+
+459
+00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:33,520
+تلاتين واربعين، يعني لو هلا مثلا الست بدها تشتري،
+
+460
+00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,280
+بدها تشتري على واحد و تلاتين واربعين، هذا بيسموه
+
+461
+00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:41,560
+market order، سعر السوقطب .. هلأ الست هادى حكت ..
+
+462
+00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,440
+اتصلت في صحابيتها قالوا كيف حالك؟ كيف انت؟ و لا
+
+463
+00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,900
+أنا بدي اشتري دهب تقوله اه في اخبار بتحكي ان الدهب
+
+464
+00:34:46,900 --> 00:34:52,860
+احتمال ينزل مثلا اشيل سمع و هي ايش سمعة فحكت okay
+
+465
+00:34:52,860 --> 00:34:57,140
+خليني احط order في السوق اذا ال price نزل اشتري
+
+466
+00:34:57,140 --> 00:35:02,980
+هذا ايش بيسمي contingent order فمثلا بيجيب نحكي
+
+467
+00:35:02,980 --> 00:35:07,140
+اذا ال price نزل ل 30 buy
+
+468
+00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:15,680
+بنشتري طبعا هذه الأسعار ممكن تنزل و ممكن ما تنزلش
+
+469
+00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:22,580
+ف the exercise of this price is subject to the
+
+470
+00:35:22,580 --> 00:35:27,860
+current price of the markets يعني التنفيذ من عدمه
+
+471
+00:35:27,860 --> 00:35:33,880
+هو حسب التحقق السعر الحالي يعني إذا كان السعر
+
+472
+00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:38,470
+الحالي وصلللتلاتين هيتم التنفيذ ماوصلش لتلاتين مش
+
+473
+00:35:38,470 --> 00:35:44,090
+هيتم التنفيذ okay طبعا هلأ لو كان مثلا هي كانت
+
+474
+00:35:44,090 --> 00:35:46,990
+بدها تشتري طب لو كانت بدها تبيع بدها السعر يطلع صح
+
+475
+00:35:46,990 --> 00:35:51,770
+فلو كانت بدها تبيع بتقول okay اتصلت على صاحبيتها
+
+476
+00:35:51,770 --> 00:35:54,930
+كمان مرة بعد ما هيشترت فحكيتلها احتمال الأسعار
+
+477
+00:35:54,930 --> 00:36:00,090
+تطلع لأن في مثلا معلومات بتحكي هيكالكلب ت price 31
+
+478
+00:36:00,090 --> 00:36:04,890
+و 41 فهي لما بدأت فيه تبيع على 31 فتحط order في
+
+479
+00:36:04,890 --> 00:36:13,450
+السوق sell بيع مثلا على 32 عشان تربح دولار او
+
+480
+00:36:13,450 --> 00:36:19,590
+دولار في كل جرام فممكن السعر يصل و ممكن مايصلش هاي
+
+481
+00:36:19,590 --> 00:36:25,230
+معناها ال contingent price تبقينا هك و ان شاء الله
+
+482
+00:36:25,230 --> 00:36:27,410
+اللقاء الجاي هينكمل
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zCSp1vHkyRs.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zCSp1vHkyRs.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4014a9a9ac1264ef75ec0704c07a99ffd31f9b31
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zCSp1vHkyRs.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2287 @@
+1
+00:00:21,330 --> 00:00:25,510
+طيب احنا نرجع من جديد و نحكي عن ال .. المرة اللي 
+
+2
+00:00:25,510 --> 00:00:31,150
+فاتت كنا حكينا عن ال markets and competitors and
+
+3
+00:00:31,150 --> 00:00:34,510
+we talked about risk and return trade-off العلاقة 
+
+4
+00:00:34,510 --> 00:00:38,130
+بين العائد و المخاطر و حكينا there is no free lunch
+
+5
+00:00:38,130 --> 00:00:45,010
+مافيش شيء ببلاش okay و بعدين حكينا عن ال .. ال
+
+6
+00:00:45,010 --> 00:00:47,950
+efficient market و حكينا انه في عندنا نوعين من ال
+
+7
+00:00:47,950 --> 00:00:51,670
+investors في عندنا active وفي عندنا passive
+
+8
+00:00:51,670 --> 00:00:55,210
+managers هلأ بنحكي عن ال players in the financial
+
+9
+00:00:55,210 --> 00:00:59,030
+markets مين هم اللي بيحركوا السوق السوق المالي
+
+10
+00:00:59,030 --> 00:01:04,430
+عادة في عندنا اللي هم ال business firms, net
+
+11
+00:01:04,430 --> 00:01:06,370
+borrowers و ال households, net savers و ال
+
+12
+00:01:06,370 --> 00:01:08,690
+government طبعا هذا الحكي ناقشناه برضه المرة الفاترة
+
+13
+00:01:08,690 --> 00:01:12,030
+هلأ ندخل في in details ندخل في التفاصيل
+
+14
+00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,080
+ال financial intermediaries ايش .. what it means
+
+15
+00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:22,220
+financial intermediaries احنا
+
+16
+00:01:22,220 --> 00:01:26,500
+المرة الفاتة حكينا انه ال .. عندي أنا هان ال
+
+17
+00:01:26,500 --> 00:01:30,480
+savers وعندي 
+
+18
+00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:36,760
+.. او عندي ال borrowers اه
+
+19
+00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:40,500
+المقترضين هلأ مافيشش .. there is no direct relation
+
+20
+00:01:40,500 --> 00:01:43,380
+between the savers and borrowers مافيش علاقة
+
+21
+00:01:43,380 --> 00:01:47,760
+مباشرة بين ال savers و ال borrowers يعني مثلا لو
+
+22
+00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:52,200
+هدول معاهم 100 دولار يعني واحد معاه 100 دولار
+
+23
+00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:58,250
+زيادة عن حاجته ايش ممكن يسوي؟ المفروض لو فيش
+
+24
+00:01:58,250 --> 00:02:01,590
+financial intermediaries لو فيش وسطاء ماليين بتروح
+
+25
+00:02:01,590 --> 00:02:04,230
+يدور على واحد بحاجة لل 100 دولار عشان يعمل
+
+26
+00:02:04,230 --> 00:02:08,650
+investment طب شوفوا how .. how much time it takes
+
+27
+00:02:08,650 --> 00:02:12,630
+to look for a one needs of money يعني جداش هو
+
+28
+00:02:12,630 --> 00:02:19,090
+هيدور على واحد بيحتاج الفلوس هذا واحد اتنين how he
+
+29
+00:02:19,090 --> 00:02:24,150
+or she wants to secure that his money will be back و
+
+30
+00:02:24,150 --> 00:02:28,810
+كيف هو بيتأكد ان فلوسه هترجعله؟ كمان شغلة تانية اذا
+
+31
+00:02:28,810 --> 00:02:33,890
+the investors or savers face challenges to locate
+
+32
+00:02:33,890 --> 00:02:38,170
+the borrowers يعني بيواجهوا صعوبات حتى يفتشوا على
+
+33
+00:02:38,170 --> 00:02:42,090
+ال borrowers so the financial intermediaries
+
+34
+00:02:42,090 --> 00:02:47,010
+facilitate the relationship between savers and
+
+35
+00:02:47,010 --> 00:02:52,710
+borrowers فهم موجودين بالمنطقة هذه ال financial
+
+36
+00:02:52,710 --> 00:02:59,770
+intermediaries Financial intermediaries، FI، الهدف
+
+37
+00:02:59,770 --> 00:03:01,910
+الرئيسي للـ  الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال
+
+38
+00:03:01,910 --> 00:03:03,170
+الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال
+
+39
+00:03:03,170 --> 00:03:04,030
+الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال
+
+40
+00:03:04,030 --> 00:03:06,130
+الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال
+
+41
+00:03:06,130 --> 00:03:06,510
+الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال
+
+42
+00:03:06,510 --> 00:03:10,770
+الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال الانتقال
+
+43
+00:03:10,770 --> 00:03:15,830
+الانتقال الانتقال
+
+44
+00:03:15,830 --> 00:03:20,900
+الانتقال الانتقال بالعكس مثلا احنا هلا دفعنا
+
+45
+00:03:20,900 --> 00:03:24,020
+المية دولار دفعناهم لل borrowers and the borrowers
+
+46
+00:03:24,020 --> 00:03:27,740
+they invest the one hundred dollar and later on
+
+47
+00:03:27,740 --> 00:03:30,160
+they have to pay back the one hundred dollar to
+
+48
+00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:36,040
+the savers so this is why take the savers pay to
+
+49
+00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:40,760
+the borrowers and borrowers pay for the savers take
+
+50
+00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:47,020
+like this chart So this is the flow of .. of funds
+
+51
+00:03:47,020 --> 00:03:55,080
+from the savers to the borrowers okay ال savers
+
+52
+00:03:55,080 --> 00:04:02,300
+اللي معاه فلوس ال borrowers
+
+53
+00:04:02,300 --> 00:04:06,620
+اللي هو أحمد ما نفلنبان صح احنا ما بنشوف ال savers
+
+54
+00:04:06,620 --> 00:04:11,890
+ما بنشوف اللي هو الإبانيزر yes يعني هال ال
+
+55
+00:04:11,890 --> 00:04:17,170
+intermediaries الشركات الوساطة الوساطاء الماليين
+
+56
+00:04:17,170 --> 00:04:20,650
+هم بيعملوا facilitate لل relationship between the
+
+57
+00:04:20,650 --> 00:04:24,110
+savers and borrowers يعني ممكن تمثلوا الكلام هذا
+
+58
+00:04:24,110 --> 00:04:27,830
+يعني يكون في ناس معهم فلوس موجودين على الجانب
+
+59
+00:04:27,830 --> 00:04:30,410
+اليمين و ناس اللي معهم مش فلوس موجودين على الجانب
+
+60
+00:04:30,410 --> 00:04:34,540
+اليسار هدول لإنهم بيعرفوش بعض because they don't
+
+61
+00:04:34,540 --> 00:04:37,920
+know each other so the .. the financial
+
+62
+00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:42,800
+intermediaries facilitate the relationship between
+
+63
+00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:46,860
+the savers and the borrowers طب مين هم ال
+
+64
+00:04:46,860 --> 00:04:50,320
+financial intermediaries؟ this is the question مين
+
+65
+00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,380
+هم ال financial intermediaries؟ ال financial
+
+66
+00:04:53,380 --> 00:04:59,310
+intermediaries Okay banks خلّيني أشوف هم مين يعني
+
+67
+00:04:59,310 --> 00:05:04,790
+هم بتحكي ال banks okay banks okay مين كمان البنوك
+
+68
+00:05:04,790 --> 00:05:08,890
+investment companies investment companies
+
+69
+00:05:08,890 --> 00:05:12,230
+companies
+
+70
+00:05:12,230 --> 00:05:16,450
+credit unions إيش يعني credit unions
+
+71
+00:05:19,330 --> 00:05:24,570
+اه اتحادات الائتمان أو الشركات الائتمانية الشركات
+
+72
+00:05:24,570 --> 00:05:29,630
+اللي بتقدم الائتمان بيسموها credit union بتقدر
+
+73
+00:05:29,630 --> 00:05:34,630
+تعطوني مثال عليهم دول credit unions لأ تأمين هذه
+
+74
+00:05:34,630 --> 00:05:40,910
+الشركة تأمين ممكن اه ممكن أصالة فاتن save children
+
+75
+00:05:40,910 --> 00:05:47,050
+okay مين كمان انيرة مثلا US aid ال honor one كمان
+
+76
+00:05:47,050 --> 00:05:54,130
+ممكن تقدم ال unicef شوفتوا هدول ممكن trade .. ممكن
+
+77
+00:05:54,130 --> 00:05:57,170
+إغاثة كاثوليكية كمان تشتغل الشغل هاد فهدول بيسموهم
+
+78
+00:05:57,170 --> 00:06:03,070
+credit unions مؤسسات بتقدم اقتراض أو بتقدم ائتمان
+
+79
+00:06:03,070 --> 00:06:09,570
+لل .. لل .. لل borrowers ال insurance companies؟
+
+80
+00:06:09,570 --> 00:06:14,630
+الشركات التأمين؟ اه مين بيعرف كيف شركات التأمين
+
+81
+00:06:14,630 --> 00:06:20,790
+بتشتغل؟ يالا كيف شركات التأمين بتعمل .. بتاخد من
+
+82
+00:06:20,790 --> 00:06:23,870
+ال savers و بتعطي ل ال borrowers؟ عن طريق السلع
+
+83
+00:06:23,870 --> 00:06:26,670
+التأمين اللي بيبقى ياخد المصابين .. بالظبط ..
+
+84
+00:06:26,670 --> 00:06:31,770
+الشركة فإن ما يحصل إنه حادث .. هتقوم معاهم بإيش؟
+
+85
+00:06:32,380 --> 00:06:35,960
+يعني انت .. انت مثلا you are saving كل شهر تدفع
+
+86
+00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:41,400
+فلوس كأقساط تأمين لشركة و later on in the future
+
+87
+00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:45,920
+في المستقبل لما الواحد يتقاعد بياخد الفلوس هذه في
+
+88
+00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:46,400
+المستقبل
+
+89
+00:06:49,270 --> 00:06:51,730
+يعني اللي بيروح عليك تقنية و اللي بيروح أكثر تقنية
+
+90
+00:06:51,730 --> 00:06:56,210
+بيروح عليك يدهد .. يدهد الامار يعطيها لأشخاص ثانية
+
+91
+00:06:56,210 --> 00:07:00,070
+يستفيدوا منها يستفيدوا منها okay صحيح اذا زي ما
+
+92
+00:07:00,070 --> 00:07:04,370
+تشايفين investment companies شركات الاستثمار شركات
+
+93
+00:07:04,370 --> 00:07:09,070
+الاستثمار هاي بت .. مهمتها انه تكوين شغل اسمها ال
+
+94
+00:07:09,070 --> 00:07:11,250
+mutual funds mutual
+
+95
+00:07:13,010 --> 00:07:17,750
+funds نحكي عن mutual funds كمان مهمتهم managing
+
+96
+00:07:17,750 --> 00:07:18,630
+the portfolios
+
+97
+00:07:21,770 --> 00:07:24,330
+إدارة المحافظ الاستثمارية يعني mutual funds
+
+98
+00:07:24,330 --> 00:07:27,730
+صناديق الاستثمار ال portfolios اللي هو محافظ
+
+99
+00:07:27,730 --> 00:07:31,670
+الاستثمار ايش يعني ال mutual funds الصناديق
+
+100
+00:07:31,670 --> 00:07:35,370
+الاستثمار هي صناديق ضخمة جدا يعني ممكن يكون يصل
+
+101
+00:07:35,370 --> 00:07:40,070
+لـ عشرين لمية مليون دولار جاي هذا الصناديق من
+
+102
+00:07:40,070 --> 00:07:44,450
+استثمارات الناس الناس العاديين يعني مثلا لو شخص
+
+103
+00:07:44,450 --> 00:07:48,250
+معاه مية دولار هذا الشخص اللي معاه مية دولار بده
+
+104
+00:07:48,250 --> 00:07:49,630
+يدخل في الصناديق الاستثمارية
+
+105
+00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:56,320
+بيروح بتصل في ال investment companies اللي هو شركات
+
+106
+00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,920
+الاستثمار شركات الاستثمار هذه عاملة صناديق هذه
+
+107
+00:07:59,920 --> 00:08:02,740
+الصناديق هتم الاستثمار فيها مثلا في أوروبا في
+
+108
+00:08:02,740 --> 00:08:06,920
+أفريقيا في دول معينة فبحطول ال 100 دولار في هذا
+
+109
+00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:12,740
+الصندوق يعني كأنه فيها صندوق okay و بتيجي بحطوا ال
+
+110
+00:08:12,740 --> 00:08:16,560
+100 دولار في هذا الصندوق طبعا millions of people
+
+111
+00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:21,430
+ملايين الناس هيحطوا في هذا الصندوق Okay يعني هتيجي
+
+112
+00:08:21,430 --> 00:08:29,150
+لناس كتير يساهموا في هذا الصندوق لنفترض انه صار
+
+113
+00:08:29,150 --> 00:08:34,430
+قيمة الصندوق five million يتم
+
+114
+00:08:34,430 --> 00:08:40,090
+تحويل الوحدات بالدولار إلى أسهم في الصندوق هو بتاع
+
+115
+00:08:40,090 --> 00:08:43,870
+اللي بيحكوا كل مية دولار بتساوي سهم واحد أو وحدة
+
+116
+00:08:43,870 --> 00:08:46,830
+واحدة بلاش نحكي أسهم بلاش نخربط مع الأسهم وحدة
+
+117
+00:08:46,830 --> 00:08:51,260
+واحدة لو عندي خمسة مليون دولار خمسة مليون دولار
+
+118
+00:08:51,260 --> 00:08:57,440
+أكمل وحدة بيصيروا نحكي خمسة مليون تقسيم مية دولار
+
+119
+00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:01,760
+الوحدة الواحدة تساوي مية دولار فبطلع قيمة الوحدات
+
+120
+00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:05,540
+اللي في الصندوق هلأ كيف بيحسبوا الربح و الخسارة؟
+
+121
+00:09:06,510 --> 00:09:11,090
+الوحدات هذه لها سعر وليكن نبدأ في par value 100$
+
+122
+00:09:11,090 --> 00:09:16,170
+ال par value يعني قيمة الاسمية 100$ بتبدأ أسعار
+
+123
+00:09:16,170 --> 00:09:20,570
+الوحدة ترتفع و تنخفض في السوق المالي وبناء عليه يتم
+
+124
+00:09:20,570 --> 00:09:25,880
+حساب الربح والخسارة هذه الصناديق مغلقة قد تكون
+
+125
+00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:30,440
+صناديق سنوية يعني يتم فتح الصندوق أو إنهاء الصندوق 
+
+126
+00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:34,000
+مع نهاية السنة و بيشوفوا كم ربح الصندوق عادة هذه
+
+127
+00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:38,480
+الصناديق بتعمل long term investments استثمارات
+
+128
+00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,280
+طويلة الأجل عادة بيروحوا مثلا بيستثمروا في أفريقيا
+
+129
+00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:43,760
+بيفتحوا شركات مثلا في أفريقيا بيروحوا مثلا
+
+130
+00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:47,400
+بالمكسيك بيروحوا بيعملوا شغل بالمكسيك و هاي يعني
+
+131
+00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:49,200
+بتكون long term investment شوفوا ال 100 دولار
+
+132
+00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:53,590
+تبعتكم اللي أنتو دفعتوها شيء بسيط لكن هذه ال 100
+
+133
+00:09:53,590 --> 00:09:57,350
+دولار حطت في صندوق استثمار وراحت فتحت شركات ضخمة
+
+134
+00:09:57,350 --> 00:10:01,250
+في العالم فيعني don't underestimate the importance
+
+135
+00:10:01,250 --> 00:10:05,310
+of your 100 دولار يعني ما .. ما تستهينوا في ال 100
+
+136
+00:10:05,310 --> 00:10:07,650
+دولار اللي أنتو بتدفعوها دول because they do big
+
+137
+00:10:07,650 --> 00:10:12,450
+investments using the .. the mutual funds ال
+
+138
+00:10:12,450 --> 00:10:21,590
+portfolios المحفظة الاستثمارية هي عبارة عن استثمار
+
+139
+00:10:21,590 --> 00:10:27,650
+متنوع في عدة مجالات okay يعني احنا عندنا هنا
+
+140
+00:10:27,650 --> 00:10:31,890
+خليني نرجع لفكرة ال mutual funds ال mutual funds
+
+141
+00:10:31,890 --> 00:10:39,370
+بيشمل عدة محافظ استثمارية حطينا ال 100 دولار في هاي
+
+142
+00:10:39,370 --> 00:10:43,230
+ال mutual funds ال mutual funds حكينا بيشمل على 5
+
+143
+00:10:43,230 --> 00:10:49,950
+مليون دولار في استثمارات في أفريقيا مثلا في
+
+144
+00:10:49,950 --> 00:10:53,790
+استثمارات مثلا في المكسيك ففي أفريقيا بنروح
+
+145
+00:10:53,790 --> 00:10:56,610
+بنستثمر في محفظة استثمارية في أفريقيا محفظة
+
+146
+00:10:56,610 --> 00:10:59,810
+استثمارية يعني portfolios إذا ال mutual funds
+
+147
+00:10:59,810 --> 00:11:04,270
+includes many or different portfolios مجموعة من
+
+148
+00:11:04,270 --> 00:11:07,710
+محافظات استثمارية والمحفظة الاستثمارية الواحدة
+
+149
+00:11:07,710 --> 00:11:13,050
+بتشمل كمان بتشمل عدة استثمارات يعني مثلا in Africa
+
+150
+00:11:13,050 --> 00:11:15,830
+ممكن احنا نعمل investment في ال communication
+
+151
+00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:22,300
+Okay ممكن نعمل investment في ال .. في ال
+
+152
+00:11:22,300 --> 00:11:27,600
+infrastructure في ال .. يعني في ال .. في البنية
+
+153
+00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,340
+التحتية و ممكن نعمل investment مثلا في ال
+
+154
+00:11:30,340 --> 00:11:36,940
+nutrition في التخزين يعني مثلا بتعرفوا مثلا في
+
+155
+00:11:36,940 --> 00:11:43,040
+الصومال فيه بتواجههم مشكلة الصومال إيش أهم إنتاج
+
+156
+00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:48,180
+في الصومال عندهم؟ لأ أهم إنتاج منتج استراتيجي عندهم
+
+157
+00:11:48,180 --> 00:11:51,940
+قال لنا الموز الموز اه
+
+158
+00:11:55,410 --> 00:11:59,110
+اه فبيحتاج .. فمن أكبر المنتجين للموز في العالم هم
+
+159
+00:11:59,110 --> 00:12:04,630
+الصومال فهدول لإنهم ما عندهمش إمكانيات ي .. يروحوا
+
+160
+00:12:04,630 --> 00:12:08,230
+يخزنوا الموز و يحطوه في حاويات و الحاويات تنقلهم
+
+161
+00:12:08,230 --> 00:12:11,390
+لأنحاء العالم بدون .. تحتاج طائرات و بتحتاج
+
+162
+00:12:11,390 --> 00:12:15,990
+إلى إمكانيات ضخمة للاستثمار فبصير تم تشكيل محفظة
+
+163
+00:12:15,990 --> 00:12:22,840
+استثمارية تعمل استثمارات بنقل ال .. المحصول يعني
+
+164
+00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:28,260
+بيكون عبارة .. okay بيكون عبارة عن عمليات النقل
+
+165
+00:12:28,260 --> 00:12:35,220
+بيحتاج إلى وسائل نقل متقدمة بحيث تحافظ على ال .. نضج
+
+166
+00:12:35,220 --> 00:12:39,060
+الموز نفسه، عدم تلف الموز، بيحتاج إلى ثلاجات
+
+167
+00:12:39,060 --> 00:12:42,900
+معينة بخصائص معينة حتى لما ينقل بالطائرات يكون له
+
+168
+00:12:42,900 --> 00:12:47,750
+خصائص معينة وبالتالي لأنه في .. في مناطق الفقر هذه
+
+169
+00:12:47,750 --> 00:12:51,170
+ما بيحتاجوا .. ما بيقدروش يغطوا هذه المجالات ففي
+
+170
+00:12:51,170 --> 00:12:54,210
+صناديق استثمار بتروح تعمل استثمارات في أفريقيا و
+
+171
+00:12:54,210 --> 00:12:59,210
+في المكسيك و في بعض الدول في آسيا حتى يروحوا ي ..
+
+172
+00:12:59,210 --> 00:13:05,250
+طبعا استفادتهم أنه استفادة .. ليست بسيطة طبعا هم
+
+173
+00:13:05,250 --> 00:13:08,910
+بيشتروا الموز بأسعار معينة و بيبيعوا الموز بأسعار
+
+174
+00:13:08,910 --> 00:13:12,490
+أعلى وهذا بيعطيهم فرص استثمارية عالية جدا okay هاي
+
+175
+00:13:12,490 --> 00:13:17,210
+أمثلة عن كيف أن هم ممكن هم they invest في ال .. في
+
+176
+00:13:17,210 --> 00:13:19,770
+ال mutual funds and invest in the portfolios في
+
+177
+00:13:19,770 --> 00:13:24,050
+المحفظة الاستثمارية إذا الصندوق الاستثمار ال
+
+178
+00:13:24,050 --> 00:13:27,750
+mutual funds بيشمل عدة محافظ استثمارية ممكن
+
+179
+00:13:27,750 --> 00:13:31,110
+هيحكينا Africa ممكن هم يستثمروا مثلا بال .. بال
+
+180
+00:13:31,110 --> 00:13:37,210
+energy في the Middle East في الشرق الأوسط بيستثمروا
+
+181
+00:13:37,210 --> 00:13:39,610
+في ال energy في the Middle East لو احنا جينا و جينا
+
+182
+00:13:39,610 --> 00:13:42,070
+على شاطئ بحر غزة هن .. هنشوف اللي هو ال British
+
+183
+00:13:42,070 --> 00:13:45,230
+petroleum اللي هو شركة .. شركة البريطانية هذه ال
+
+184
+00:13:45,230 --> 00:13:50,530
+.. okay اللي هو استخراج الغاز فهذا بيكون عبارة عن
+
+185
+00:13:50,530 --> 00:13:55,130
+شركات استثمار عملت investment فتحت محفظة استثمارية
+
+186
+00:13:55,130 --> 00:13:57,630
+أو صندوق استثمار و عملت investment في .. في هذا
+
+187
+00:13:57,630 --> 00:14:03,540
+المجال Okay فيعني هذا دور المحفظة الاستثمارية
+
+188
+00:14:03,540 --> 00:14:09,380
+صناديق الاستثمار بتوفر كثير فلوس لل investors أو
+
+189
+00:14:09,380 --> 00:14:12,340
+لل bourgeois يعني زي ما حكينا ال one hundred
+
+190
+00:14:12,340 --> 00:14:16,020
+dollar هادي لما تكون من مليون واحد فتصوروا مئة
+
+191
+00:14:16,020 --> 00:14:20,160
+مليون بيصير لو كل واحد شهريا دفع just one hundred
+
+192
+00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:24,550
+dollar و and invest in these mutual funds so it
+
+193
+00:14:24,550 --> 00:14:28,470
+means the business will grow up هي .. هي ال
+
+194
+00:14:28,470 --> 00:14:31,870
+business يزيد و يصير توسع و يصير نمو لكن لو أجينا
+
+195
+00:14:31,870 --> 00:14:34,210
+احنا ال 100 hundred دولار تبعتنا شوفوا الفرق بين
+
+196
+00:14:34,210 --> 00:14:38,550
+the rule of financial intermediaries and if there
+
+197
+00:14:38,550 --> 00:14:41,170
+is no financial intermediaries إذا كان عندي
+
+198
+00:14:41,170 --> 00:14:44,250
+financial intermediaries و لو ما كانش ال 100 .. ال
+
+199
+00:14:44,250 --> 00:14:46,870
+100 دولار هذي اللي معايا بقدر أنه أروح فيها على
+
+200
+00:14:46,870 --> 00:14:49,950
+أفريقيا أعمل investments طب بقدر أعمل secret
+
+201
+00:14:49,950 --> 00:14:55,390
+hadith بقدر أعمل مثلا أنقل الموز من الصومال لأنحاء
+
+202
+00:14:55,390 --> 00:14:59,210
+العالم بقدر مثلا أعمل investment في ال energy مثلا
+
+203
+00:14:59,210 --> 00:15:03,230
+بالعالم it's impossible so the one hundred dollar
+
+204
+00:15:03,230 --> 00:15:06,830
+this one hundred dollar make the mutual funds and
+
+205
+00:15:06,830 --> 00:15:11,460
+mutual funds invest over all the world هذا ال ..
+
+206
+00:15:11,460 --> 00:15:13,820
+فعشان هي واحدة بتسأل من وين المصاري millions of
+
+207
+00:15:13,820 --> 00:15:16,020
+dollars من وين جاي هالواحد بيمتلكهم؟ لأ because
+
+208
+00:15:16,020 --> 00:15:19,700
+mutual funds is considered as a units وحدات زي ما
+
+209
+00:15:19,700 --> 00:15:24,640
+حكينا وحدة من الدولار and it's collected from the
+
+210
+00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:26,800
+savers هدول ال savers اللي معاهم اللي مية اللي بيدفعوا
+
+211
+00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:31,600
+الدولار حطوها ب .. مع ال .. مع ال investment
+
+212
+00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,300
+companies و ال investment .. investment companies
+
+213
+00:15:34,300 --> 00:15:36,780
+they channel it to the borrowers و ال borrowers
+
+214
+00:15:36,780 --> 00:15:40,040
+راحوا يعملوا investment big .. big investment في
+
+215
+00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:43,900
+around the world okay فتتفاجئوش لما تكون الشركة
+
+216
+00:15:43,900 --> 00:15:48,020
+مثلا عندها trillion of dollar هذي trillion of
+
+217
+00:15:48,020 --> 00:15:51,060
+dollar is coming from the small investors جاي من
+
+218
+00:15:51,060 --> 00:15:57,180
+ال small investors لزهار استثمارات يعني مثلا لو
+
+219
+00:15:57,180 --> 00:16:02,140
+احنا فكرنا مثلا نشتغل مثلا شركة، نعمل شركة
+
+220
+00:16:02,140 --> 00:16:06,500
+استثمارات في قطاع غزة و .. و هذه رقم اسمها thirty
+
+221
+00:16:06,500 --> 00:16:10,240
+million، ثلاثين مليون دولار و الناس بيقول oh wow
+
+222
+00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:15,140
+thirty millions how we can get this number ممكن
+
+223
+00:16:15,140 --> 00:16:18,480
+نجيب الرقم هذا بسهولة ثلاثين مليون ممكن نجابه
+
+224
+00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,760
+بسهولة من خلال ال .. ال .. ال investors ال savers
+
+225
+00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:26,580
+ال savers مش شرط one saver have thirty million مش
+
+226
+00:16:26,580 --> 00:16:30,060
+شرط ال .. ال .. المستثمر الواحد أو المدخر الواحد
+
+227
+00:16:30,060 --> 00:16:33,900
+يكون عنده ثلاثين مليون ممكن هذا يكون مئة دولار هذا
+
+228
+00:16:33,900 --> 00:16:37,000
+مئتين دولار هذا ألف دولار at the end of the day we
+
+229
+00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:42,550
+will have the three hundred دولار مثلا في عندنا
+
+230
+00:16:42,550 --> 00:16:45,790
+مثلا بدون ذكر أسماء البنوك يعني في عندنا بنك من
+
+231
+00:16:45,790 --> 00:16:50,870
+البنوك بيعمل في غزة الودائع المقيمين في قطاع غزة
+
+232
+00:16:50,870 --> 00:16:54,750
+four billion مش four million four billion يعني
+
+233
+00:16:54,750 --> 00:16:58,110
+أربع مليارات دولارات دولار الضفة الغربية وقطاع غزة
+
+234
+00:16:58,110 --> 00:17:03,510
+بس في بنك واحد عندهم أربع مليار دولار ودائع فلو
+
+235
+00:17:03,510 --> 00:17:05,810
+احنا بدنا نفكر نفتح شركة just for thirty million
+
+236
+00:17:05,810 --> 00:17:10,580
+يعني نقدر احنا نفتح عشر شركات أو نفتحنا 15 شركة من
+
+237
+00:17:10,580 --> 00:17:13,880
+ال big companies على مستوى الضفة الغربية وقطاع غزة
+
+238
+00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,400
+شوفوا كيف ممكن احنا نعمل to change our investments
+
+239
+00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:21,280
+from the just depositing the bank into
+
+240
+00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:25,880
+industrialized investments إلى استثمارات صناعية و
+
+241
+00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:30,300
+استثمارات خدماتية okay هذا ال investment companies
+
+242
+00:17:30,300 --> 00:17:34,280
+لو حكينا على ال banks على البنوك we have different
+
+243
+00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:38,830
+banks في عندنا بنوك مختلفة ممكن تعطونا إيش أسماء ..
+
+244
+00:17:38,830 --> 00:17:42,250
+إيش البنوك ال .. لأ بدي أسماء بنوك بدي أنواع
+
+245
+00:17:42,250 --> 00:17:49,950
+البنوك فضل بنك المركزي the central bank إيش ال
+
+246
+00:17:49,950 --> 00:17:57,050
+central bank هذا شغلته هو is بتعرفي .. بتعرفي أب
+
+247
+00:17:57,050 --> 00:18:02,130
+البنوك he is the bank of banks أو or the father of
+
+248
+00:18:02,130 --> 00:18:07,600
+banks هو أب البنوك is .. is organizing and
+
+249
+00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:11,840
+observing okay and managing the other banks or the
+
+250
+00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,120
+commercial and other banks يعني هو بيدير .. اه عفوا 
+
+251
+00:18:15,120 --> 00:18:19,860
+هو بي .. بيراقب و بيتابع و بينظم عمليات البنوك نفسها
+
+252
+00:18:19,860 --> 00:18:23,640
+controlling them طب هذا الـ central bank غير الـ
+
+253
+00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:29,070
+central bank مين؟ البناية اللي وراه غير الـ central
+
+254
+00:18:29,070 --> 00:18:31,370
+bank اتفضلي .. commercial bank .. commercial bank
+
+255
+00:18:31,370 --> 00:18:32,270
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+256
+00:18:32,270 --> 00:18:32,450
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+257
+00:18:32,450 --> 00:18:33,910
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+258
+00:18:33,910 --> 00:18:33,930
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+259
+00:18:33,930 --> 00:18:35,230
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+260
+00:18:35,230 --> 00:18:40,170
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+261
+00:18:40,170 --> 00:18:42,910
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+262
+00:18:42,910 --> 00:18:46,250
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+263
+00:18:46,250 --> 00:18:48,010
+ال .. ال .. ال
+
+264
+00:18:51,990 --> 00:18:55,450
+أيوة في .. في investment banks بس الـ investment
+
+265
+00:18:55,450 --> 00:18:58,470
+banks خدوا بالكم مش هو الـ investment banks اللي
+
+266
+00:18:58,470 --> 00:19:02,710
+احنا بنعرفه investment banks له شغل بختلف عن شغل
+
+267
+00:19:02,710 --> 00:19:07,990
+البنك التجاري البنك الاستثمار مهمته أنه يشجع
+
+268
+00:19:07,990 --> 00:19:13,770
+الاستثمار okay يعني مثلا ي .. زي بنوك الصناعية
+
+269
+00:19:13,770 --> 00:19:20,060
+يروح مثلا يوجه الأموال تبعته نحو الصناعات Okay يوجه
+
+270
+00:19:20,060 --> 00:19:24,260
+الأموال تبعته في تمويل الشركات و خاصة في شغل اسمها
+
+271
+00:19:24,260 --> 00:19:29,240
+primary .. primary markets
+
+272
+00:19:31,580 --> 00:19:34,560
+Okay primary market تذكروا هذا المصطلح primary
+
+273
+00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:40,260
+markets هو is in charge is in charge to do the
+
+274
+00:19:40,260 --> 00:19:43,760
+primary markets البنك الاستثمار هو المسئول عن
+
+275
+00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,260
+عملية الـ primary market اللي هو سوق الأصدارات
+
+276
+00:19:47,260 --> 00:19:50,620
+الأولية يعني إيه سوق الأصدارات الأولية؟ لما الشركة
+
+277
+00:19:50,620 --> 00:19:54,760
+.. أول شركة ما تنتج بتحتاج تطرح أسهم وين بتطرح
+
+278
+00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:58,040
+الأسهم هذه؟ لازم تطرحها في بنك الاستثمار احنا في
+
+279
+00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:02,300
+القطاع غزة أو في الضفة الغربية يعني هذا الدور لأنه
+
+280
+00:20:02,300 --> 00:20:06,120
+ماعندناش professional investment banks ماعندناش بنوك
+
+281
+00:20:06,120 --> 00:20:10,520
+استثمار استثمارات احترافية أو متخصصة فبلجأوا
+
+282
+00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,540
+للبنوك التجارية حتى يقوموا بهذا الدور وهذا شيء غلط
+
+283
+00:20:14,540 --> 00:20:18,720
+يصير بال .. لأن دور البنك الاستثمار هو دور يختلف
+
+284
+00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,760
+عن دور البنوك التجارية so be careful in the role
+
+285
+00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:25,120
+of commercial banks and the role of investment
+
+286
+00:20:25,120 --> 00:20:27,620
+banks إيش كمان عن الأنواع من البنوك؟
+
+287
+00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:34,600
+البنوك المتخصصة specialized bank زي إيش مثلا
+
+288
+00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:39,420
+specialized bank الزراعي بالظبط زي مثلا لو روحنا
+
+289
+00:20:39,420 --> 00:20:43,580
+احنا على مصر specialized bank هنلاقي اللي هو الـ
+
+290
+00:20:43,580 --> 00:20:47,520
+بنك الاقتصـاد الزراعي بنك الاقتصـاد الزراعي هو بنك
+
+291
+00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:51,300
+متخصص just to invest in the agriculture areas هو
+
+292
+00:20:51,300 --> 00:20:55,020
+بس متخصصين بالـ agriculture اللي هو في الزراعة okay
+
+293
+00:20:55,020 --> 00:21:01,020
+فهذا البنوك بتتخصص بهذا المجال في مثلا الـ housing
+
+294
+00:21:01,020 --> 00:21:06,260
+bank housing bank بنوك ال .. ال .. الإسكان و بنوك
+
+295
+00:21:06,260 --> 00:21:10,060
+الـ real estate هذه مهمتها إيش؟ to .. to channel
+
+296
+00:21:10,060 --> 00:21:13,820
+the funds to the housing investments اللي هو بناء
+
+297
+00:21:13,820 --> 00:21:17,960
+البيوت و بناء المنازل و بناء الطرقات فهم بتخصصين
+
+298
+00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:23,420
+بهذا المجال okay إيش في عندك بنوك؟ Islamic bank
+
+299
+00:21:23,420 --> 00:21:25,100
+طبعا Islamic bank
+
+300
+00:21:29,190 --> 00:21:32,410
+لأ ما بتستخدم القروض الـ Islamic part بيستخدموا
+
+301
+00:21:32,410 --> 00:21:36,910
+المرابحة و المضاربة و المشاركة okay فعندهم
+
+302
+00:21:36,910 --> 00:21:39,430
+المضاربة و المرابحة و المشاركة
+
+303
+00:21:42,060 --> 00:21:45,480
+لأ هم ما بيستخدموا القروض هم بيستخدموا يعني
+
+304
+00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,960
+بيستخدموا أدوات استثمارية بتختلف ممكن يكون .. ممكن
+
+305
+00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:53,420
+يكون الـ investors من برا يشوف أنه مافيش اختلاف لكن
+
+306
+00:21:53,420 --> 00:21:56,760
+الـ process فعلا هي في اختلاف لما بدك تاخد مرابحة
+
+307
+00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:01,900
+مثلا بتطلب أنه ما يكونش .. يعني ما يكونش ملكية الشيء
+
+308
+00:22:01,900 --> 00:22:07,120
+تكون للبنك فالبنك بيعمل عقد مع الشركة السيارات و
+
+309
+00:22:07,120 --> 00:22:10,860
+من ثم بيتم بيع السيارة من البنك ل .. ل هذا الشخص
+
+310
+00:22:11,620 --> 00:22:16,860
+Okay فهذا اختلف صحيح أنه شكلاً ممكن يكون متشابه لكن
+
+311
+00:22:16,860 --> 00:22:21,340
+مضمونه لأ فيه اختلاف وبتسهل احنا في ال .. و هيك
+
+312
+00:22:21,340 --> 00:22:25,000
+يعني الفرق بين .. بين ال .. بين أي شيء حلال أو أي
+
+313
+00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,660
+.. أو أي شيء محرم هو .. هو الشّعر البسيط أنه ال ..
+
+314
+00:22:28,660 --> 00:22:35,530
+ال .. اللي بتسير في المضمون تبعه العملية نفسها ففي
+
+315
+00:22:35,530 --> 00:22:37,650
+عندنا البنوك الإسلامية البنوك الإسلامية لأ في
+
+316
+00:22:37,650 --> 00:22:40,350
+عندها المرابحة وفي عندنا المضاربة وفي عندنا
+
+317
+00:22:40,350 --> 00:22:42,730
+المشاركة وفي عندنا الاستثمار المتخصص وفي عندنا
+
+318
+00:22:42,730 --> 00:22:46,990
+الاستثمار اه كل هذا طبعاً بتوفره البنوك الإسلامية
+
+319
+00:22:46,990 --> 00:22:50,690
+والبنوك الإسلامية اليوم كثير متطورة حتى يعني بنوك
+
+320
+00:22:50,690 --> 00:22:54,830
+أجنبية زي الـ HSBC Bank HSBC Bank ثاني أكبر بنك في
+
+321
+00:22:54,830 --> 00:23:01,380
+العالم بيقدم خدمات إسلامية بيسميها Amana Bank أمانة
+
+322
+00:23:01,380 --> 00:23:06,740
+بنك أمانة بنك اللي هي خدمات استثمارية pure islamic
+
+323
+00:23:06,740 --> 00:23:10,440
+طبعاً pure islamic يعني إسلامية مية في المية مافيش
+
+324
+00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,940
+فيها مشاكل بتاخد مرابحة بتاخد مضاربة بتاخد
+
+325
+00:23:13,940 --> 00:23:18,480
+استثمارات الودائع مافيش فيها عليها الفوائد اللي
+
+326
+00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,900
+الفوائد الربوية وبالتالي there is a spreading out
+
+327
+00:23:21,900 --> 00:23:26,920
+to the concept of islamic banking طبعاً هذا بالنسبة
+
+328
+00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:32,950
+للـ بنوكبقى موجود .. هذا موجود في .. في لندن، في
+
+329
+00:23:32,950 --> 00:23:36,690
+بريطانيا و ال .. أصلاً الـ headquarter موجود في هونج
+
+330
+00:23:36,690 --> 00:23:42,050
+كونج لأن هو إجا بين اندماج لعدة .. لبنوك تمام؟
+
+331
+00:23:42,050 --> 00:23:46,350
+اللي هو هونج كونج بانك فهذا ال .. البنك يعتبر ثاني
+
+332
+00:23:46,350 --> 00:23:49,490
+أكبر بنك في العالم بعد دوتش بانك دوتش بانك في
+
+333
+00:23:49,490 --> 00:23:53,670
+عنده 450 ألف .. دوتش بانك لأ .. دوتش بانك ألماني
+
+334
+00:23:53,670 --> 00:23:57,970
+.. بنك ألماني .. اه ف .. هذا الـ بنك اللي هو دوتش
+
+335
+00:23:57,970 --> 00:24:03,850
+بانك عنده تقريباً ما يزيد عن 450 ألف موظفين موزعين
+
+336
+00:24:03,850 --> 00:24:08,610
+على أنحاء العالم وبالتالي يعني .. هذه البنوك
+
+337
+00:24:08,610 --> 00:24:13,520
+العالمية تقدم خدمات إسلامية و اليوم في توجه كبير
+
+338
+00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:18,920
+لتقديم محافظ استثمارية إسلامية و قروض استثمارية
+
+339
+00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:24,860
+إسلامية وهي ما يعني صارت توجه العالم بتقديم بعض
+
+340
+00:24:24,860 --> 00:24:30,800
+الخدمات الإسلامية okay الـ insurance companies
+
+341
+00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:35,000
+حكينا فيهم بخدمة خدمات التأمين و هدول بيعتمدوا على
+
+342
+00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,300
+علم اسمه actuarials actuaries اللي هو علم
+
+343
+00:24:38,300 --> 00:24:42,260
+الاكتواريات علم الاكتواريات كثير بيستخدموا
+
+344
+00:24:42,260 --> 00:24:49,440
+الاحتمالات علم الاكتواريات actuarials اللي هو علم
+
+345
+00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:50,380
+الاكتواريات
+
+346
+00:25:01,110 --> 00:25:04,310
+Science هذا علم الاكتواريات بيستخدم كثير
+
+347
+00:25:04,310 --> 00:25:10,290
+الاحتمالات .. اه الاحتمالات و .. و نسبة ال .. نسبة
+
+348
+00:25:10,290 --> 00:25:14,710
+حدوث الحدث و نسبة الحوادث و كذا حتى يروح يحسب و
+
+349
+00:25:14,710 --> 00:25:19,690
+يخطط التأمين على الـ investors تمام؟
+
+350
+00:25:20,250 --> 00:25:23,090
+الـ credit unions حكينا عندهم أمثلة كبيرة لـ credit
+
+351
+00:25:23,090 --> 00:25:26,750
+unions اللي هو أن المؤسسات التأمين أو اتحادات
+
+352
+00:25:26,750 --> 00:25:30,350
+التأمين و البنات هتعطوني عدة أمثلة أعطوني مثلا
+
+353
+00:25:30,350 --> 00:25:38,080
+زي credit unions مثلا أصالة فاتن مين كمان أنا اه
+
+354
+00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:43,260
+الإغاثة الإسلامية يعني يقدموا قروض ميسرة okay و
+
+355
+00:25:43,260 --> 00:25:48,180
+بيتم المستثمرين بي .. طب السؤال هدول مثلا زي أصالة
+
+356
+00:25:48,180 --> 00:25:51,540
+و فاتن و ال .. و أنيرة و save the children و هذا من
+
+357
+00:25:51,540 --> 00:25:56,680
+وين بيجيبوا الأموال تبعتهم؟ اه من .. من الـ savers
+
+358
+00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,960
+.. من الـ savers هدول international savers بيروحوا ب
+
+359
+00:25:59,960 --> 00:26:05,280
+.. بيستثمروا في هذه المؤسسات على أساس أنه ي .. يعني
+
+360
+00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:10,200
+يقوموا بعملية تنمية معينة في دول مثلا دول فقيرة
+
+361
+00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:16,480
+حتى يستطيعوا ينهضوا بال .. بالاقتصاد okay أي سؤال
+
+362
+00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:20,580
+على الـ credit unions أو سؤال على الـ financial
+
+363
+00:26:20,580 --> 00:26:21,580
+intermediaries
+
+364
+00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:31,260
+لأ الـ insurance companies هم شركات تأمين يعني
+
+365
+00:26:31,260 --> 00:26:34,960
+ما بيعملوش الـ insurance companies هدول بيقدموش
+
+366
+00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:40,320
+تسهيلات ائتمانية خد بالك الـ competition هو يعني
+
+367
+00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,740
+كويس إن أنت سألت السؤال هذا إن الـ competition
+
+368
+00:26:42,740 --> 00:26:46,500
+بيكون بين الـ insurance companies و الـ investment
+
+369
+00:26:46,500 --> 00:26:52,350
+companies في نوع من منافسة بيناتهم لما احنا نروح
+
+370
+00:26:52,350 --> 00:26:55,770
+ندفع أقساط التأمين فبيصير pool شوفوا أنتو من كلمة
+
+371
+00:26:55,770 --> 00:27:00,930
+pool pool and invest فشركات التأمين أكبر الشركات
+
+372
+00:27:00,930 --> 00:27:04,610
+اللي عندها saving لأنه كنا بندفع أقساط تأمين
+
+373
+00:27:04,610 --> 00:27:09,170
+السيارة أقساط تأمين المنازل أقساط تأمين الحياة
+
+374
+00:27:09,170 --> 00:27:13,750
+تأمين العمال فبتدخل إيش؟ بتدخل هذه عبارة عن funds
+
+375
+00:27:13,750 --> 00:27:19,170
+هذه الـ funds بحتاج لإيش؟ بحتاج لـ channel إن احنا 
+
+376
+00:27:19,170 --> 00:27:24,040
+نعمل investments فبدل ما يوجهوا هذا ال funds ل
+
+377
+00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,180
+investment companies by themselves invest this
+
+378
+00:27:27,180 --> 00:27:29,320
+money وعدم أن they play
+
+379
+00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:36,700
+a huge role in the capital markets يعني هذا
+
+380
+00:27:36,700 --> 00:27:40,860
+بيلعبوا دور كبير في النظام الرأسمالي هم بيأثروا ال
+
+381
+00:27:40,860 --> 00:27:43,740
+.. الـ insurance companies هم the main players in
+
+382
+00:27:43,740 --> 00:27:46,060
+the .. in the financial markets هم اللي بيلعبوا
+
+383
+00:27:46,060 --> 00:27:48,940
+دور كبير في الـ financial markets ف instead of
+
+384
+00:27:48,940 --> 00:27:52,510
+channel the money or the funds to the investment
+
+385
+00:27:52,510 --> 00:27:55,430
+companies they do it by themselves فممكن ما
+
+386
+00:27:55,430 --> 00:27:58,270
+تتفاجئوا أن الـ insurance companies هم يروحوا
+
+387
+00:27:58,270 --> 00:28:00,430
+يعملوا investment في أفريقيا وممكن يعملوا
+
+388
+00:28:00,430 --> 00:28:02,590
+investment في الـ .. في الـ United States وفي الـ UK
+
+389
+00:28:02,590 --> 00:28:05,350
+في الـ Middle East بالـ .. بالـ .. بالـ European
+
+390
+00:28:05,350 --> 00:28:07,690
+countries so they don't have problems in investing
+
+391
+00:28:07,690 --> 00:28:11,130
+as long as they have the funds لأنهم عندهم الفلوس
+
+392
+00:28:11,130 --> 00:28:16,000
+وبالتالي they can do it by themselves واضح الكلام
+
+393
+00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,260
+فالـ insurance companies مش بس هم they serving or
+
+394
+00:28:19,260 --> 00:28:23,800
+they provide insurance services but they provide
+
+395
+00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:27,020
+investment services فهم كمان بيروحوا بيعملوا
+
+396
+00:28:27,020 --> 00:28:32,120
+استثمارات هم اللي بياخدوا أقساط التأمين من الناس
+
+397
+00:28:32,120 --> 00:28:37,100
+بيعملوا investment لهاي بيستثمروها في أماكن مختلفة
+
+398
+00:28:37,100 --> 00:28:42,630
+في العالم وهذول يعني هتلاق .. هتجدهم من مالكين
+
+399
+00:28:42,630 --> 00:28:45,590
+أكبر شركات في العالم هذول الـ insurance companies
+
+400
+00:28:45,590 --> 00:28:49,610
+okay and they have a good experience in managing
+
+401
+00:28:49,610 --> 00:28:53,390
+other companies وعندهم خبرات كبيرة عالية جدا في
+
+402
+00:28:53,390 --> 00:29:00,830
+أن هم إدارة الشركات الغير تأمينية okay مكتوب كمان
+
+403
+00:29:00,830 --> 00:29:03,410
+بالكتاب المماشي الـ bank أو الـ ..
+
+404
+00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:18,580
+بس الـ insurance
+
+405
+00:29:18,580 --> 00:29:22,840
+companies ما بيعملوش الكلام هذا يعني مش شغلتهم أن
+
+406
+00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:26,520
+ياخدوا saving هم شغلتهم إيش؟ شغلتهم ياخدوا أقساط
+
+407
+00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:31,060
+التأمين اللي هو بيسموها insurance installments
+
+408
+00:29:31,060 --> 00:29:34,520
+أقساط التأمين اسمها insurance installments
+
+409
+00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:47,700
+فعشان هيك صحيح كلامك أنّه مش هم أكبر ناس اللي
+
+410
+00:29:47,700 --> 00:29:50,860
+يعملوا intermediaries between the savers and
+
+411
+00:29:50,860 --> 00:29:54,240
+investors  بط هم أكثر ناس اللي يعملوا investments
+
+412
+00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,820
+هم ومين؟ هم وشركات الـ investment companies هم وشركات
+
+413
+00:29:57,820 --> 00:30:04,290
+الاستثمار الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ ..
+
+414
+00:30:04,290 --> 00:30:04,530
+الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ 
+
+415
+00:30:04,530 --> 00:30:04,690
+.. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ
+
+416
+00:30:04,690 --> 00:30:05,470
+الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ
+
+417
+00:30:05,470 --> 00:30:06,290
+.. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ ..
+
+418
+00:30:06,290 --> 00:30:10,130
+الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ
+
+419
+00:30:10,130 --> 00:30:12,670
+.. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ ..
+
+420
+00:30:12,670 --> 00:30:13,050
+.. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ ..
+
+421
+00:30:13,050 --> 00:30:13,310
+الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ .. الـ
+
+422
+00:30:13,310 --> 00:30:21,890
+الـ .. الـ .. الـ ..
+
+423
+00:30:31,700 --> 00:30:36,740
+Okay الـ .. الناس اللي بيروحوا اللي هم ناس يعني
+
+424
+00:30:36,740 --> 00:30:42,820
+بالعربي هم ما بيحبوش ياخدوا مخاطر وكمان بدهم مش
+
+425
+00:30:42,820 --> 00:30:47,620
+يبحثوا .. بدهم مش يبحثوا لأنه because if you want
+
+426
+00:30:47,620 --> 00:30:50,540
+to search on investment it takes time and takes
+
+427
+00:30:50,540 --> 00:30:55,000
+effort فهو هيحط الـ 100 دولار هذه وفي ناس investor
+
+428
+00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:58,960
+managers مدراء الاستثمار هم هياخدوا الـ 100 دولار
+
+429
+00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:03,340
+تبعته and they invest it on behalf him or her يعني
+
+430
+00:31:03,340 --> 00:31:05,660
+هيروحوا ياخدوا الـ 100 دولار هذه ويروحوا يستثمروا
+
+431
+00:31:05,660 --> 00:31:11,440
+بالنيابة عنه Okay فهذا سبب وجود الـ investment
+
+432
+00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,740
+companies بتاخدوا من الفلوس والناس هتقول مش فاضي
+
+433
+00:31:14,740 --> 00:31:17,620
+أروح وين أودي الـ 100 دولار تبعت هذه أروح أستثمر
+
+434
+00:31:17,620 --> 00:31:20,540
+في أفريقيا ولا في غانا ولا أستثمر هنا ولا هنا
+
+435
+00:31:20,540 --> 00:31:23,380
+بيعطوهم إياها and they are responsible to do this
+
+436
+00:31:23,380 --> 00:31:27,500
+بعدين الـ investment companies they can manage risk
+
+437
+00:31:27,500 --> 00:31:31,680
+هم بيقدروا يديروا المخاطر بشكل أفضل and they have
+
+438
+00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,680
+experience in doing this وعندهم خبرة في هذا
+
+439
+00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:39,100
+المجال Okay but the insurance companies they invest
+
+440
+00:31:39,100 --> 00:31:43,680
+to themselves لفلوسهم هي بتظل بتختلف عن الـ
+
+441
+00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:50,320
+investment companies بالظبط
+
+442
+00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:57,460
+صح هذا مظهر هذا مش هدف أساسي يعني بالظبط مش هدف
+
+443
+00:31:57,460 --> 00:32:02,000
+الأساسي هي الفائض من بعد عملية التأمين أو سداد
+
+444
+00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:06,450
+التأمين هم بيروحوا بيعملوا investment وهذه بنات
+
+445
+00:32:06,450 --> 00:32:10,010
+يعني ما تستغربوش هذول هم اللي بتحكموا في العالم
+
+446
+00:32:10,010 --> 00:32:13,950
+كله بتحكموا بالاقتصاد، بتحكموا بالسياسة، بتحكموا
+
+447
+00:32:13,950 --> 00:32:16,990
+بكل شيء الـ small and the big man؟ لأ هذول الـ
+
+448
+00:32:16,990 --> 00:32:21,790
+financial intermediaries هذول إذا كانوا زعلانين،
+
+449
+00:32:21,790 --> 00:32:25,630
+أه الأمور ما بتمشيش أه وإذا كان الأمور هم ماشية
+
+450
+00:32:25,630 --> 00:32:28,510
+يعني شوفوا لما صار في الـ financial crisis وصار الـ
+
+451
+00:32:28,510 --> 00:32:31,390
+financial .. drop in financial intermediaries so
+
+452
+00:32:31,390 --> 00:32:34,350
+صار في أزمة مالية في العالم okay
+
+453
+00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:47,060
+طبعا هي مقارنة بين الـ block الاستثمار ومقارنة بين
+
+454
+00:32:47,060 --> 00:32:56,000
+الـ block التجارية okay
+
+455
+00:32:56,000 --> 00:33:02,120
+زي ما تشوفين investment banking طبعا هذا حكيته
+
+456
+00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,960
+أثناء الشرح لأنّ investment banking بيعمل
+
+457
+00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,260
+underwriting الـ new stock and bond issue هذا
+
+458
+00:33:08,260 --> 00:33:14,210
+بيسموه primary markets سوق الأولى حكيته كيف أي شركة
+
+459
+00:33:14,210 --> 00:33:17,270
+جديدة بدت تصدر أسهم جديدة أو شركة قائمة بدت تصدر
+
+460
+00:33:17,270 --> 00:33:20,890
+أسهم جديدة لازم تروح على الـ investment banking
+
+461
+00:33:20,890 --> 00:33:24,210
+sell newly issued securities to public in primary
+
+462
+00:33:24,210 --> 00:33:27,010
+markets we explained this investors trade
+
+463
+00:33:27,010 --> 00:33:29,510
+previously issued securities among themselves in
+
+464
+00:33:29,510 --> 00:33:32,230
+the secondary markets كمان هذول investment banking
+
+465
+00:33:32,970 --> 00:33:36,410
+لو بدنا نشتري .. أشتري مثلا أسهم شركة بالتل أو
+
+466
+00:33:36,410 --> 00:33:40,250
+أسهم شركة الـ .. شركة بنك فلسطين أو هذول لازم من
+
+467
+00:33:40,250 --> 00:33:44,210
+خلال هذول الناس ممنوع أنا أروح أتسلفش في .. في سوق
+
+468
+00:33:44,210 --> 00:33:47,530
+فلسطين مباشرة I have to go through the financial
+
+469
+00:33:47,530 --> 00:33:50,390
+intermediaries I have to go through the investment
+
+470
+00:33:50,390 --> 00:33:53,700
+banking or investment companies الـ commercial
+
+471
+00:33:53,700 --> 00:33:56,980
+banking طبعا أنتم حكيتوا فيه بياخد الودائع من
+
+472
+00:33:56,980 --> 00:34:00,520
+الناس take deposits and make loans بياخدوا من
+
+473
+00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:04,040
+اليمين وبيعطي الشمال وهو بياخد الفرق بين الفائدة
+
+474
+00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:09,880
+okay هيك بيكون احنا خلصنا الـ chapter one هذا يعني
+
+475
+00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:11,560
+just for your .. for your .. for your
+
+476
+00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:13,560
+understanding, for your culture, for your
+
+477
+00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,780
+knowledge you can read the financial crisis لكن
+
+478
+00:34:16,780 --> 00:34:21,320
+احنا هذا هو المطلوب عندنا بـ chapter one نرجع بس
+
+479
+00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,800
+تلخيص لـ chapter one عشان أن احنا نذكركم إيش
+
+480
+00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:29,260
+المواضيع اللي احنا أخذناها في الفصل هذا عشان أنا
+
+481
+00:34:29,260 --> 00:34:32,420
+أعطيكم chapter two فان شاء الله on Saturday we
+
+482
+00:34:32,420 --> 00:34:34,100
+will start in chapter two
+
+483
+00:34:41,980 --> 00:34:48,160
+أه؟ okay okay
+
+484
+00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:55,180
+ماشي chapter one just to remind you in chapter one
+
+485
+00:34:55,180 --> 00:34:57,660
+إيش الأشياء اللي أخذناها بـ chapter one
+
+486
+00:35:01,540 --> 00:35:04,220
+إحماء you have to know what it means investment
+
+487
+00:35:04,220 --> 00:35:08,420
+environment السؤال الأول تبقى السؤال الأول اللي
+
+488
+00:35:08,420 --> 00:35:15,180
+موجود عندي على الـ website بسأل وبحكي describe in
+
+489
+00:35:15,180 --> 00:35:17,400
+the light of your understanding of chapter one
+
+490
+00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:22,100
+describe the investment environment where in
+
+491
+00:35:22,100 --> 00:35:26,720
+Palestinian authority بدكم تصفولي البيئة
+
+492
+00:35:26,720 --> 00:35:32,080
+الاستثمارية في مناطق السلطة الفلسطينية in light of
+
+493
+00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:35,040
+your understanding ما بديش تروحوا على الـ net و
+
+494
+00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:40,480
+investment in هذا كلام ما بظبطش معناه إيش كاتب أنا
+
+495
+00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:45,920
+in light of your understanding of chapter one معنى
+
+496
+00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:50,080
+الكلام باجي امسك واحدة واحدة real assets vs
+
+497
+00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,820
+financial assets بشوف إيش الـ real assets اللي
+
+498
+00:35:52,820 --> 00:35:55,420
+موجودة عندنا بمناطق السلطة وإيش الـ financial
+
+499
+00:35:55,420 --> 00:35:59,680
+assets اللي موجودة okay يعني هذا بيسموه reflection
+
+500
+00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:04,500
+إيش بنسميها اسمه reflection what it means reflection
+
+501
+00:36:04,500 --> 00:36:08,660
+يعني احنا الفهم تبعنا بدنا نعمله تطبيق بدنا نطبقه
+
+502
+00:36:08,660 --> 00:36:13,160
+فالـ assignment تبعتكوا is a reflection بتعمله 
+
+503
+00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,500
+reflection of your understanding يعني إذا أنا بدي
+
+504
+00:36:16,500 --> 00:36:19,320
+اعرف انه فهمتوا الـ chapter ولا لأ if you do the
+
+505
+00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,100
+reflection is fine if you couldn't it's you don't
+
+506
+00:36:22,100 --> 00:36:27,710
+understand. Okay فحكينا الـ real assets اللي هو
+
+507
+00:36:27,710 --> 00:36:31,090
+الأصول الحقيقية الأصول الحقيقية هي أصلا بتعمل
+
+508
+00:36:31,090 --> 00:36:37,750
+بتشجع الإنتاج السلع والخدمات و الـ income الدخل و
+
+509
+00:36:37,750 --> 00:36:41,470
+أعطينا أمثلة عليها و الفرق بينها و الـ financial asset
+
+510
+00:36:41,470 --> 00:36:44,570
+الـ financial asset هي التزامات على الأصول الثابتة أو
+
+511
+00:36:44,570 --> 00:36:49,550
+الأصول الحقيقية و حكينا في عندي تلات أنواع من ال
+
+512
+00:36:49,550 --> 00:36:54,190
+financial assets عندنا الـ fixed income أصول بتعطيني
+
+513
+00:36:54,190 --> 00:36:59,390
+عائد ثابت زي .. زي الـ .. زي الأسهم الممتازة و زي
+
+514
+00:36:59,390 --> 00:37:02,970
+السندات الـ common stock or equity الأسهم العادية
+
+515
+00:37:02,970 --> 00:37:08,730
+بتعطي عوائد غير ثابتة derivatives اللي هو المشتقات
+
+516
+00:37:08,730 --> 00:37:13,050
+و حكينا عنها الـ financial engineering حكينا عنها
+
+517
+00:37:13,050 --> 00:37:17,930
+الهندسة المالية مش الهندرة الهندسة المالية okay
+
+518
+00:37:19,500 --> 00:37:23,860
+بعدين دخلنا في تفاصيل وفرّقنا بين الـ money market و
+
+519
+00:37:23,860 --> 00:37:26,340
+الـ capital market اللي هو السوق النقدي اللي هو
+
+520
+00:37:26,340 --> 00:37:31,300
+قصير الأجل بيكون بيكون الـ liquidity عالية فيه بيكون
+
+521
+00:37:31,300 --> 00:37:35,140
+كمان الـ credit risk منخفض الـ capital market بيكون
+
+522
+00:37:35,140 --> 00:37:40,280
+طويل الأجل على أمثلته السندات و كمان المخاطر فيه
+
+523
+00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:46,360
+عالية okay سوق الأسهم و الـ derivatives الأسهم هي
+
+524
+00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:50,640
+حقوق ملكية okay الـ derivatives هي اشتقت من الـ ..
+
+525
+00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:55,150
+من الـ financial assets okay وحكينا العلاقة بين الـ
+
+526
+00:37:55,150 --> 00:37:58,610
+financial markets و الـ economy، دور المعلومات،
+
+527
+00:37:58,610 --> 00:38:01,630
+المعلومات كل ما زادت كل ما بتحسن أداء السوق، الـ
+
+528
+00:38:01,630 --> 00:38:04,330
+consumption timing لما يكون في عندي أوقات أنا
+
+529
+00:38:04,330 --> 00:38:08,650
+ماعنديش استهلاك، عندي عائد عالي و عندي استهلاك
+
+530
+00:38:08,650 --> 00:38:12,570
+منخفض، هعمل استثمار للفائض عشان هيجي يوم من الأيام
+
+531
+00:38:12,570 --> 00:38:17,630
+ماعنديش عائد، okay؟ allocation of risk اللي هو
+
+532
+00:38:17,630 --> 00:38:22,350
+تخصيص المخاطر كيف احنا ممكن نخصص المخاطر كل واحد
+
+533
+00:38:22,350 --> 00:38:27,330
+مننا له مخاطر محددة وبالتالي في استثمار بيكون
+
+534
+00:38:27,330 --> 00:38:29,930
+يشابه المخاطر اللي أنا بحملها separation of
+
+535
+00:38:29,930 --> 00:38:32,650
+ownership الفصل في الإدارة الفصل الملكية عن
+
+536
+00:38:32,650 --> 00:38:36,190
+الإدارة وحكينا عن الـ agency problem لأنه لما صار
+
+537
+00:38:36,190 --> 00:38:38,650
+في فصل الملكية عن الإدارة صار المدراء يهتموا
+
+538
+00:38:38,650 --> 00:38:42,270
+بأهدافهم أكثر من أهداف المؤسسة وكيف بنحل الموضوع
+
+539
+00:38:42,270 --> 00:38:45,910
+حكينا بنحل الموضوع من خلال corporate governance and
+
+540
+00:38:45,910 --> 00:38:48,530
+corporate ethics و من خلال أخلاقيات المهنة و
+
+541
+00:38:48,530 --> 00:38:50,710
+أعطينا أمثلة على الـ corporate governance و أمثلة
+
+542
+00:38:50,710 --> 00:38:55,570
+على الـ corporate ethics بسبب عدم تطبيق الـ
+
+543
+00:38:55,570 --> 00:38:58,010
+corporate governance و الـ separation صار عندي
+
+544
+00:38:58,010 --> 00:39:01,410
+scandals فضائح مالية أهم هذه الفضائح المالية شركة
+
+545
+00:39:01,410 --> 00:39:04,930
+Enron لسبب صارت عندهم مشكلة مع اللي هو Arthur
+
+546
+00:39:04,930 --> 00:39:08,590
+Anderson أنه صار هم بيعملوا auditing and
+
+547
+00:39:08,590 --> 00:39:11,610
+consultation in the same time استشارات و auditing
+
+548
+00:39:12,590 --> 00:39:16,310
+بهذا السبب عملوا اللي هو القانون بتاع Sarbanes
+
+549
+00:39:16,310 --> 00:39:21,670
+-Oxley Act اللي هو بيعمل tightening للـ governance
+
+550
+00:39:21,670 --> 00:39:25,830
+بيؤكد و .. و بيشدد على الحوكمة و على ضرورة الـ
+
+551
+00:39:25,830 --> 00:39:28,470
+separation between the auditing services and the
+
+552
+00:39:28,470 --> 00:39:32,920
+consultancy services حكينا عن investment process هي
+
+553
+00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:37,500
+في three steps asset allocation تخصيص الأصول
+
+554
+00:39:37,500 --> 00:39:40,580
+وحكينا عن الـ families تبع الأصول بعدين حكينا عن
+
+555
+00:39:40,580 --> 00:39:44,420
+security selection اختيار الأوراق المالية بعدين الـ
+
+556
+00:39:44,420 --> 00:39:47,140
+security analysis اللي هو تحليل الأوراق المالية
+
+557
+00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:51,200
+بعدين حكينا عن الـ markets and competitive اللي هي
+
+558
+00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,760
+أساسا أنه ما في شيء ببلاش في السوق، السوق فيه
+
+559
+00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:58,440
+تنافس فالـ risk and return trade-off فالمستثمرين
+
+560
+00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:02,040
+بيعملوا trading-off بين العائد والمخاطر، بعدين
+
+561
+00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:07,300
+حكينا عن الـ efficient markets السوق الكافئ وطبعا
+
+562
+00:40:07,300 --> 00:40:09,820
+السوق الكافئ في عنده strong market, في عنده weak
+
+563
+00:40:09,820 --> 00:40:12,500
+market و في عنده semi-strong market and we gave
+
+564
+00:40:12,500 --> 00:40:16,760
+examples of these markets وحكينا in the light of
+
+565
+00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:19,800
+efficient market we have two management styles,
+
+566
+00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:23,120
+the active management and the passive management
+
+567
+00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:27,500
+واليوم حكينا عن the players اللي في السوق المالي
+
+568
+00:40:27,500 --> 00:40:30,280
+اللي هو business firms, households, governments in
+
+569
+00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,640
+details اللي هم الـ financial intermediaries,
+
+570
+00:40:33,180 --> 00:40:35,520
+investment companies, الـ bank, insurance companies
+
+571
+00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:40,080
+and credit unions هيك بيكون احنا خلصنا الـ chapter
+
+572
+00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,200
+one any question؟
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e279d28a8e0e95e8e1b158aabe474acac7a24053
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1650 @@
+1
+00:00:20,790 --> 00:00:23,450
+هنحكي بالـ introduction to risk return and the
+
+2
+00:00:23,450 --> 00:00:28,270
+historical records هذا الموضوع تبع chapter 5
+
+3
+00:00:28,270 --> 00:00:36,650
+مقدمة في إدارة المخاطر والعائد وكيف نحسب العائد
+
+4
+00:00:36,650 --> 00:00:41,930
+التاريخي للشركات okay؟ إيش اللي بيحدد أسعار
+
+5
+00:00:41,930 --> 00:00:45,510
+الفوائد؟ interest rate determinants إيش اللي بيحدد
+
+6
+00:00:45,510 --> 00:00:50,350
+أسعار الفوائد؟ بيحدد أسعار الفوائد اللي هو supply
+
+7
+00:00:50,350 --> 00:00:55,670
+and demand بشكل عام الـ supply and demand العرض
+
+8
+00:00:55,670 --> 00:01:01,430
+والطلب طبعا الـ
+
+9
+00:01:01,430 --> 00:01:06,590
+supply العرض
+
+10
+00:01:06,590 --> 00:01:15,940
+يعني الشركات بتنتج Okay؟ و بالطرف الآخر الـ .. الـ ..
+
+11
+00:01:15,940 --> 00:01:20,300
+الـ business بي .. بيستهلكوا هذا الـ .. الـ إنتاج
+
+12
+00:01:20,300 --> 00:01:25,000
+بالنسبة لـ الـ interest rate determinant عشان نفهم
+
+13
+00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:30,180
+العلاقة إيش الـ supply و إيش الـ demand علاقة بسيطة
+
+14
+00:01:30,180 --> 00:01:35,320
+مش .. مش .. مش صعبة لكن بدنا نفكر فيها ب .. بهذا
+
+15
+00:01:35,320 --> 00:01:35,720
+الطريقة
+
+16
+00:01:38,950 --> 00:01:43,610
+الـ households هم الـ savers لو جينا احنا حكيين الـ
+
+17
+00:01:43,610 --> 00:01:47,490
+households هم
+
+18
+00:01:47,490 --> 00:01:55,730
+الناس اللي عندهم saving عندهم إيش؟ saving so
+
+19
+00:01:55,730 --> 00:02:02,850
+because they have saving they supply the money to
+20
+00:02:02,850 --> 00:02:04,390
+business
+
+21
+00:02:08,100 --> 00:02:13,140
+إذا زي ما إحنا شايفين الـ .. الـ household they have
+
+22
+00:02:13,140 --> 00:02:16,880
+the .. the .. the money okay so they supply the
+
+23
+00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:23,460
+money to the business fine and in the opposite
+
+24
+00:02:23,460 --> 00:02:25,880
+there is a demand
+
+25
+00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,760
+there is a demand by the business on the money في
+
+26
+00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:36,240
+طلب من الـ business الشركات الشركات بتطلب الأموال
+
+27
+00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,300
+هذه عشان يعملوا starting up يعملوا مشاريعهم
+
+28
+00:02:39,300 --> 00:02:45,940
+expansion يتوسعوا and so on لذَن هذه العلاقة بين الـ
+
+29
+00:02:45,940 --> 00:02:50,300
+interest rate والـ supply and demand طيب إذا الـ
+
+30
+00:02:50,300 --> 00:02:54,080
+supply زاد إذا احنا أخدنا بعين الاعتبار the supply
+
+31
+00:02:54,080 --> 00:03:00,080
+if the supply increase الـ I الـ interest rates
+
+32
+00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:05,180
+بتنخفض هذا طبيعي تمام؟ هذا يعرفينه القوانين العرض
+
+33
+00:03:05,180 --> 00:03:11,380
+و الطلب الـ supply العرض و الـ demand الطلب الـ
+
+34
+00:03:11,380 --> 00:03:16,120
+household هم الـ ناس الـ savers اللي هم المدخرين و
+
+35
+00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:20,640
+الـ business هم الشركات فالناس المدخرين اللي معهم
+
+36
+00:03:20,640 --> 00:03:26,460
+فلوس و هذا شرحناه بـ chapter 2 أذكركوا بـ chapter two
+
+37
+00:03:26,460 --> 00:03:30,260
+لما احنا كنا نحكي الـ savers بروحوا على الـ
+
+38
+00:03:30,260 --> 00:03:33,460
+financial intermediaries مظبوط و الـ financial
+
+39
+00:03:33,460 --> 00:03:35,880
+intermediaries بروحوا على .. بودوا الفلوس تبعتهم
+
+40
+00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:42,410
+على الناس اللي عندهم deficit، في عندهم عجز Okay so
+
+41
+00:03:42,410 --> 00:03:46,470
+the .. the fund flows from the savers to the .. to
+
+42
+00:03:46,470 --> 00:03:51,650
+the deficit يعني الشركات هلأ لما بدي تعمل استثمار
+
+43
+00:03:51,650 --> 00:03:55,630
+بدها .. بدها فلوس صح ولا لأ طب الفلوس من وين بتيجي؟ بتيجي من الـ saving or من الـ savers إذا الـ
+
+44
+00:03:55,630 --> 00:03:59,370
+savers فلوسهم كتير okay يعني في فلوس كتير عند الـ
+
+45
+00:04:03,610 --> 00:04:08,420
+savers مع الكلام الـ interest rate هتنخفض Okay إذا
+
+46
+00:04:08,420 --> 00:04:12,920
+الـ demand كان أعلى if the demand greater than إذا
+
+47
+00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:17,420
+كان الـ D greater than S يعني الـ demand أكبر من الـ
+
+48
+00:04:17,420 --> 00:04:23,980
+saving فبيصير الـ interest rate إيش؟ الـ I ترتفع فهذا
+
+49
+00:04:23,980 --> 00:04:28,100
+زي ما نجيبكوا شفته في الامتحان إنه زي الـ correct
+
+50
+00:04:28,100 --> 00:04:32,900
+نجيبكم correct the statement واضحة if the demand
+
+51
+00:04:32,900 --> 00:04:37,010
+greater than the saving so the interest rate will
+
+52
+00:04:37,010 --> 00:04:43,050
+go down is this right if the demand greater than
+
+53
+00:04:43,050 --> 00:04:48,230
+the supply so the interest rate will go down no
+
+54
+00:04:48,230 --> 00:04:53,210
+it's the opposite so when this the demand exceed
+
+55
+00:04:53,210 --> 00:04:57,110
+the supply طبعا نفس الجملة so the interest rate
+
+56
+00:04:57,110 --> 00:05:02,490
+will go up يعني بيكون الطلب أكبر من العرض فبيكون
+
+57
+00:05:02,490 --> 00:05:06,430
+السعر الفائدة بيرتفع الطلب على الأموال يعني هلأ
+
+58
+00:05:06,430 --> 00:05:11,450
+مثلا نيجي مثال Bank فلسطين أو Bank الإسلامي عنده
+
+59
+00:05:11,450 --> 00:05:17,770
+مثلا مائة ألف دولار من الـ savers الـ savers هلأ
+
+60
+00:05:17,770 --> 00:05:21,550
+الناس اللي .. اللي .. اللي بدهم ياخدوا قروض اللي
+
+61
+00:05:21,550 --> 00:05:24,570
+هم الـ business or people they asking two hundred
+
+62
+00:05:24,570 --> 00:05:29,150
+thousand dollar بدهم 200 ألف دولار ففي الحالة هذه
+
+63
+00:05:29,150 --> 00:05:33,670
+الـ .. الـ demand is greater than the supply so what
+
+64
+00:05:33,670 --> 00:05:36,130
+bank of Palestine will do is to increase the
+
+65
+00:05:36,130 --> 00:05:41,830
+interest rate هيروح يرفع سعر الفائدة when .. when
+
+66
+00:05:41,830 --> 00:05:44,010
+the bank of Palestine increase the interest rate
+
+67
+00:05:44,010 --> 00:05:47,450
+some .. some people reluctant to do it or to take
+
+68
+00:05:47,450 --> 00:05:52,090
+the loan بعض الناس هيترددوا في أخذ القروض وبالتالي
+
+69
+00:05:52,090 --> 00:05:55,390
+هيفضل يصير في equilibrium equilibrium يعني معناه
+
+70
+00:05:55,390 --> 00:05:59,470
+هيصير فيه توازن بين العرض و الطلب if the opposite
+
+71
+00:05:59,470 --> 00:06:03,330
+إذا كان العكس يعني bank of palestine has two
+
+72
+00:06:03,330 --> 00:06:07,170
+hundred thousands and people wants one hundred
+
+73
+00:06:07,170 --> 00:06:11,370
+thousands so bank of palestine will make the price
+
+74
+00:06:11,370 --> 00:06:14,700
+or the interest rate to go down هيخلي سعر الفائدة
+
+75
+00:06:14,700 --> 00:06:21,200
+تنخفض yes
+
+76
+00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:27,040
+الفائدة بتتناسب طردي مع الـ demand صح و بتتناسب
+
+77
+00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:32,000
+عكسي okay so it means in the English language it
+
+78
+00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:38,200
+means the interest rate has a positive function
+
+79
+00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:42,560
+with the demand However it has a negative function
+
+80
+00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:47,380
+with the supply، okay؟
+
+81
+00:06:47,380 --> 00:06:51,820
+في حد عنده سؤال؟
+
+82
+00:06:51,820 --> 00:06:55,800
+الـ governments،
+
+83
+00:06:55,800 --> 00:07:01,520
+but this is .. this
+
+84
+00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,860
+is fine before the intervention of the governments
+
+85
+00:07:05,970 --> 00:07:08,910
+because at the end of the day the government has
+
+86
+00:07:08,910 --> 00:07:12,870
+the big hands on influence on the interest rates
+
+87
+00:07:12,870 --> 00:07:16,850
+يعني هذا كلام صحيح بعيد عن تدخل الـ government بعيد
+
+88
+00:07:16,850 --> 00:07:20,270
+عن تدخل الحكومة لأن الحكومة لها الـ big hands or
+
+89
+00:07:20,270 --> 00:07:23,490
+the long hands اللي لها اليد الطولة في التأثير على
+
+90
+00:07:23,490 --> 00:07:26,630
+أسعار الفوائد because there is central bank لأن
+
+91
+00:07:26,630 --> 00:07:29,920
+فيه البنك المركزي and the central bank control over
+
+92
+00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,640
+the interest rates and there is the minister of
+
+93
+00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:35,140
+finance, minister of finance has the monetary
+
+94
+00:07:35,140 --> 00:07:40,440
+policy بيأثر من خلال السياسات المالية so all of
+
+95
+00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:44,340
+these policies influence on the interest rates
+
+96
+00:07:44,340 --> 00:07:49,680
+بتأثر على الـ interest rates So the government's net
+
+97
+00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:53,140
+supply and demand has big influence on the
+
+98
+00:07:53,140 --> 00:07:57,440
+interest rates خلينا ناخد for instance if the
+
+99
+00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:01,040
+government observe that the interest rate is going
+
+100
+00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:04,680
+up إذا
+
+101
+00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:06,720
+الـ government لاحظت إنه الـ interest rate قاعدة
+
+102
+00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:12,780
+بتطلع وكل ما الـ investment الـ interest rate is
+
+103
+00:08:12,780 --> 00:08:16,970
+going up be careful here when the interest rate is
+
+104
+00:08:16,970 --> 00:08:25,250
+going up people they .. they reluctant to get
+
+105
+00:08:25,250 --> 00:08:28,410
+loans from the banks يعني كل ما الـ interest rate
+
+106
+00:08:28,410 --> 00:08:31,950
+بتطلع الناس بي .. بيبتعدوا عن البنوك لياخدوا قروض
+
+107
+00:08:31,950 --> 00:08:36,810
+والشركات بتبدأ كمان ان هي تبتعد وبالتالي الـ
+
+108
+00:08:36,810 --> 00:08:39,470
+investment بنخفض الـ investments
+
+109
+00:08:42,620 --> 00:08:48,300
+in this case the governments cannot leave their
+
+110
+00:08:48,300 --> 00:08:52,340
+hands off إيش معناه leaves their hands off يعني
+
+111
+00:08:52,340 --> 00:08:57,020
+بتتركش إيديها مكتوفين so they intervene in this
+
+112
+00:08:57,020 --> 00:09:03,820
+بتدخل okay for instance the governments the
+
+113
+00:09:03,820 --> 00:09:07,140
+government intervene by supplying the banks
+
+114
+00:09:07,140 --> 00:09:12,370
+بيعملوا supplying اه and the government sometimes
+
+115
+00:09:12,370 --> 00:09:16,190
+intervene directly and indirectly بت .. بتدخل
+
+116
+00:09:16,190 --> 00:09:20,330
+directly or indirectly يعني يا أما تدخل مباشر يا
+
+117
+00:09:20,330 --> 00:09:25,330
+أما تدخل غير مباشر okay as .. as we say here
+
+118
+00:09:25,330 --> 00:09:30,930
+supply and demand when they observe the liquidity
+
+119
+00:09:30,930 --> 00:09:35,650
+which is .. the liquidity is one of the .. the
+
+120
+00:09:35,650 --> 00:09:41,790
+measures of the supply Okay هذه الـ liquidity when
+
+121
+00:09:41,790 --> 00:09:45,330
+they observe the liquidity is growing up you know
+
+122
+00:09:45,330 --> 00:09:49,530
+what it means growing up يعني بتكبر so they try to
+
+123
+00:09:49,530 --> 00:09:53,670
+intervene to absorb this liquidity بتدخل عشان to
+
+124
+00:09:53,670 --> 00:09:58,670
+shrink to shrink this يتقلصوا يعني بنفسوها شوية
+
+126
+00:09:58,670 --> 00:10:03,990
+okay and when they observe this liquidity shrink
+
+127
+00:10:03,990 --> 00:10:09,690
+they start to blow it up/plot it up يعني بيصيروا 
+
+128
+00:10:09,690 --> 00:10:12,830
+ينفخوا في ال .. and to make this greater than
+
+129
+00:10:12,830 --> 00:10:17,010
+before يعني بالأخير the government intervene to
+
+130
+00:10:17,010 --> 00:10:21,210
+try to make the balance interest تعمل balance
+
+131
+00:10:21,210 --> 00:10:27,190
+interest okay so this is the idea of the interest 
+
+132
+00:10:27,190 --> 00:10:34,370
+rate determinant okay so
+
+133
+00:10:34,370 --> 00:10:37,690
+any question here okay أي سؤال؟
+
+134
+00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:46,340
+So again just to summarize what I'm saying
+
+135
+00:10:51,890 --> 00:10:55,350
+هيتدخلوا ب two policies هيتدخلوا في ال monitor مش
+
+136
+00:10:55,350 --> 00:10:58,530
+موضوعنا بس أنا هجاوبك مش موضوعنا how they .. the
+
+137
+00:10:58,530 --> 00:11:01,370
+government intervene to control over the interest
+
+138
+00:11:01,370 --> 00:11:05,210
+rates but they are using two different policies
+
+139
+00:11:05,210 --> 00:11:08,210
+يعني هم مش .. مش .. مش موضوعنا احنا كيف ال
+
+140
+00:11:08,210 --> 00:11:10,890
+government intervene لأن هذا بال public finance
+
+141
+00:11:10,890 --> 00:11:13,490
+بتاخدوها هذا بالمالية العامة المفروض بتاخدوها أو
+
+142
+00:11:13,490 --> 00:11:17,150
+بال .. بال economics أو بال اقتصاد public finance
+
+143
+00:11:17,150 --> 00:11:22,750
+أو macro economics اقتصاد كله but the idea is here
+
+144
+00:11:22,750 --> 00:11:28,470
+the government intervene by using monetary policy
+
+145
+00:11:28,470 --> 00:11:38,610
+okay and monetary policy and financial policy yes
+
+146
+00:11:42,500 --> 00:11:44,700
+so they are using two different types of policies
+
+147
+00:11:44,700 --> 00:11:49,740
+monetary policy and financial policy بتدخلوا في ال
+
+148
+00:11:49,740 --> 00:11:52,740
+monetary policy وفي ال financial policy ال
+
+149
+00:11:52,740 --> 00:11:55,800
+monetary policy اللي هي السياسة النقدية ال
+
+150
+00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:59,340
+financial policy هي السياسة المالية so the
+
+151
+00:11:59,340 --> 00:12:02,760
+financial policy here is running by the minister
+
+152
+00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,880
+of finance and the monetary policy is running by
+
+153
+00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:10,820
+the central bank يعني السياسة النقدية بتتم التحكم
+
+154
+00:12:10,820 --> 00:12:15,120
+فيها من قبل البنك المركزي و ال financial policy is
+
+155
+00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,920
+running by the ministry of finance من خلال وزارة
+
+156
+00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:23,240
+المالية okay so this is the relationship by using
+
+157
+00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,000
+the two different types of policies
+
+158
+00:12:28,190 --> 00:12:32,770
+the government can control over the liquidity or
+
+159
+00:12:32,770 --> 00:12:35,930
+can control over the interest rates بتدخله بال ..
+
+160
+00:12:35,930 --> 00:12:40,050
+بال .. بال interest rates the advanced economic
+
+161
+00:12:40,050 --> 00:12:43,830
+they intervene indirectly and influence on the
+
+162
+00:12:43,830 --> 00:12:48,410
+interest rates خدوا بالكم يعني بالاقتصاديات in the
+
+163
+00:12:48,410 --> 00:12:51,230
+developed countries يعني في الدول المتقدمة in the
+
+164
+00:12:51,230 --> 00:12:55,610
+developed countries they intervene by using
+
+165
+00:12:55,610 --> 00:13:02,370
+indirect policies بتدخله باستخدام وسياسات غير
+
+166
+00:13:02,370 --> 00:13:07,290
+مباشرة however العكس however in the less developed
+
+167
+00:13:07,290 --> 00:13:11,030
+countries or in developing countries they use the
+
+168
+00:13:11,030 --> 00:13:15,590
+direct influence on the either financial policy
+
+169
+00:13:15,590 --> 00:13:21,990
+and the monetary policy Okay so this is the
+
+170
+00:13:21,990 --> 00:13:26,970
+interest rates again there are other determinants
+
+171
+00:13:26,970 --> 00:13:30,230
+of the interest rates the other determinants these
+
+172
+00:13:30,230 --> 00:13:38,250
+determinants for instance such as
+
+173
+00:13:38,250 --> 00:13:42,650
+inflation واحدة من ال determinants ال inflation
+
+174
+00:13:43,970 --> 00:13:47,370
+بتأثر ال inflation ال inflation زي ما أنتم شايفين
+
+175
+00:13:47,370 --> 00:13:51,430
+is the increase in the liquidity حد بعرف شو معناه
+
+176
+00:13:51,430 --> 00:13:59,590
+ال inflation تضخم؟ شو هو التضخم؟ طيب أنا بدي يعني
+
+177
+00:13:59,590 --> 00:14:04,610
+نقشوني هيك حتة حتة عشان أنا مش فاهم ال inflation
+
+178
+00:14:04,610 --> 00:14:09,130
+so I need to understand what it means inflation as
+
+179
+00:14:09,130 --> 00:14:12,940
+she said what did you say التفاهمة اللي موجودة في
+
+180
+00:14:12,940 --> 00:14:18,380
+الأسعار طب أنا بقول لك هذا مش inflation خليني ..
+
+181
+00:14:18,380 --> 00:14:22,140
+يمكن كلامك صح يمكن كلامك صح بقى I'm .. I'm just
+
+182
+00:14:22,140 --> 00:14:25,480
+try to see to what level you understand what it
+
+183
+00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,300
+means inflation يعني أنا بحاول أوصل لقداش أنت
+
+184
+00:14:29,300 --> 00:14:33,560
+فاهمة في ال inflation okay انتفضت واشتراكية
+
+185
+00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,780
+للإنسان وهي كلامه عن طول تذكيره كان مستمر وعلى
+
+186
+00:14:36,780 --> 00:14:42,780
+سعارة عامة .. عامة الخدمات طب إذا كان .. طب خلينا
+
+187
+00:14:42,780 --> 00:14:47,160
+نحكي بال .. ب .. بأوروبا مثلاً و ببعض الدول الأسعار
+
+188
+00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,880
+بترتفع لكن ممكن ما نعتبره inflation أو ممكن نعتبره
+
+189
+00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:54,860
+inflation .. تفضل أنا بعض النقطات أخطر أن يكون
+
+190
+00:14:54,860 --> 00:14:59,440
+السبع أو الخدمة قليلة .. تمام فالأسعار بتبدأ ترتفع
+
+191
+00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:04,370
+.. يعني هو بكون نمكنبس إنه يعني قانيل السلع و هو
+
+192
+00:15:04,370 --> 00:15:07,310
+بتدفع أكتر أكتر عشان يبسل عليها فتبسيل ارتفاع كل
+
+193
+00:15:07,310 --> 00:15:11,010
+الأسعار طب و هلا سؤال هل .. هل .. هل ال .. ال ..
+
+194
+00:15:11,010 --> 00:15:14,090
+ال .. ارتفاع ال inflation هذا كويس و لا مش كويس؟
+
+195
+00:15:14,090 --> 00:15:21,070
+جاوبوني هيك بصراحة ال inflation is .. is a .. a
+
+196
+00:15:21,070 --> 00:15:23,730
+good signal to the economy or a bad signal؟
+
+197
+00:15:30,060 --> 00:15:32,920
+خلينا نسمع .. نسمع الكلام .. تفضل .. بس أنا بس لأ
+
+198
+00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:36,140
+أعمل قراياتين في أقل من أوروبا بس يكون الدخل ..
+
+199
+00:15:36,140 --> 00:15:38,580
+مثلاً الدخل يجب أن يكون كبير .. الأسعار كبيرة .. تمام
+
+200
+00:15:38,580 --> 00:15:40,900
+.. من هناك على الدخل المدرسي أو الدولي .. يكون
+
+201
+00:15:40,900 --> 00:15:47,900
+الدخل أقل من .. من الأسعار المراجية .. اه
+
+202
+00:15:47,900 --> 00:15:53,060
+.. طيب تفضل .. خصوصاً في أوروبا .. في بنينا ..
+
+203
+00:15:53,060 --> 00:15:56,320
+المؤسسة اللي بتوفيها أسعار عقرة .. هذا السبب ليش
+
+204
+00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:56,900
+في بنينا؟
+
+205
+00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:04,920
+الانفلاشن كلامكوا مية في المية صحيح لكن بنضيف
+
+206
+00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:09,320
+شوية تعديلات عليهم الانفلاشن is a good sign not a
+
+207
+00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:14,940
+bad sign أنا يمكن تتفاجأوا أن احنا بنحكي بالكلام
+
+208
+00:16:14,940 --> 00:16:22,680
+عنه لأنه إيجابي للانفلاشن مش غلط يعني but to a
+
+209
+00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:28,490
+particular level عند حد معين why؟ because inflation
+
+210
+00:16:28,490 --> 00:16:34,890
+is an indicator for the growth rate هو مؤشر لنمو
+
+211
+00:16:34,890 --> 00:16:39,150
+لما بيصير عنده نمو الأسعار أكيد بترتفع definitely
+
+212
+00:16:39,150 --> 00:16:44,970
+هترتفع if there is increase in the economy هيصير
+
+213
+00:16:44,970 --> 00:16:50,370
+ارتفاع في الأسعار okay هذا الارتفاع في الأسعار
+
+214
+00:16:50,370 --> 00:16:54,290
+يقابله ارتفاع في النمو في ال growth rates بال GDP
+
+215
+00:16:54,290 --> 00:17:00,210
+بال GNP معرفينهم okay لكن where is .. where is
+
+216
+00:17:00,210 --> 00:17:04,490
+when the inflation considered as a bad sign متى
+
+217
+00:17:04,490 --> 00:17:07,990
+ممكن احنا نعتبر ال inflation is a bad sign؟
+
+218
+00:17:07,990 --> 00:17:14,970
+هنعتبره كالتالي ال inflation هذا
+
+219
+00:17:14,970 --> 00:17:18,050
+ال inflation is increasing in the price ارتفاع في
+
+220
+00:17:18,050 --> 00:17:24,160
+الأسعار طب ليش في ارتفاع في الأسعار لأنه في نموه في
+
+221
+00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:29,080
+الدولة في نموه اقتصادي في إنتاج في طلب زي ما
+
+222
+00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:33,420
+اتفضلت هان انه في دخل للناس و .. و .. و .. و كل ما
+
+223
+00:17:33,420 --> 00:17:38,000
+الإنسان بزيد دخله بزيد استهلاكه و .. و المصانع
+
+224
+00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,260
+بتصير تزيد إنتاجها و بصير نمو هذا شيء طبيعي طب إذا
+
+225
+00:17:42,260 --> 00:17:44,920
+في ارتفاع أسعار طبيعي حسيه و .. و هذا is indicator
+
+226
+00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:45,720
+for the growth
+
+227
+00:17:49,150 --> 00:17:51,530
+اه احنا بنحكي على الكلام هذا بنحكي على
+
+228
+00:17:51,530 --> 00:17:56,970
+industrialized countries الدول الصناعية احنا اللي
+
+229
+00:17:56,970 --> 00:18:03,770
+عندنا اسمها بيسموه Stag Inflation Stag Inflation
+
+230
+00:18:03,770 --> 00:18:07,570
+إيش معناه Stag Inflation ما را عليكم المصطلح؟ تدخل
+
+231
+00:18:07,570 --> 00:18:12,480
+مستورد يعني هذا .. هذا ال inflation تبعنا مش هو
+
+232
+00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,880
+احنا سببه سببه أن احنا بتأثرين في دول صناعية فلما
+
+233
+00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,420
+تصير ارتفاع أسعار في الدول الصناعية هتصير ارتفاع
+
+234
+00:18:18,420 --> 00:18:22,240
+أسعار لنا بس خلينا نشوف ارتفاع الأسعار في الدول
+
+235
+00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:27,800
+الصناعية كيف بيصير لما يكون أنت داخل لك الف شاكل
+
+236
+00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:32,460
+بتشتريه بألف شاكل صح ولا لأ؟ يعني مثلاً لو واحد
+
+237
+00:18:32,460 --> 00:18:36,980
+عنده داخل ألف شاكل لنفترض بيشتري 1000 شاكل و
+
+238
+00:18:36,980 --> 00:18:44,230
+200 شاكل saving صح؟ طب لو سار دخله ألفين شاكل نفترض
+
+239
+00:18:44,230 --> 00:18:49,550
+هيزيد استهلاكه 500 شاكل و 500 شاكل هدول
+
+240
+00:18:49,550 --> 00:18:57,970
+يعملهم saving طب لو واحد دخله عشر تلاف شاكل هيشرب
+
+241
+00:18:57,970 --> 00:19:03,050
+ثمان تلاف شاكل و saving two thousand شاكل ايش
+
+242
+00:19:03,050 --> 00:19:07,510
+بتلاحظوا؟ كل ما زاد الدخل زاد الاستهلاك طيب زاد
+
+243
+00:19:07,510 --> 00:19:11,770
+الاستهلاك بزيد الطلب على الشركات سيارات طيارات
+
+244
+00:19:11,770 --> 00:19:15,690
+traveling اه الناس بدها تروح تعمل traveling و تروح
+
+245
+00:19:15,690 --> 00:19:19,570
+تنبسط و تروح تعمل tourist و يزوروا ال .. okay و
+
+246
+00:19:19,570 --> 00:19:24,580
+يصير عندهم enjoyment فزاد الطلب زاد الإنتاج بصير
+
+247
+00:19:24,580 --> 00:19:27,660
+نمو في الدولة ولا لأ؟ لما يصير عندهم إنها سيارات
+
+248
+00:19:27,660 --> 00:19:31,080
+حديثة وكذا بتصير بدهم يطالبوا طرق نظيفة وإنشاءات
+
+249
+00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,220
+ويصير الناس معاهم الفلوس بدهم coffee shops على
+
+250
+00:19:33,220 --> 00:19:36,940
+البحر وعلى أي شيء هذا اللي راح يصير، مظبوط ولا لأ؟ 
+
+251
+00:19:36,940 --> 00:19:41,620
+وبقى بيصير فيه developments، بيصير فيه تطور، هلأ
+
+252
+00:19:41,620 --> 00:19:46,140
+اللي بيصير أنه عند الأسعار بتزيد لأنه في طلب في 
+
+253
+00:19:46,140 --> 00:19:53,180
+demand وهذا is inflation وال growth بيزيد إذا كان
+
+254
+00:19:53,180 --> 00:19:57,340
+في عندي up to 10% إذا كان الinflation up to 10%
+
+255
+00:19:57,340 --> 00:20:02,420
+لعندك 10% بيكون هذا is a good indicator بيكون كويس
+
+256
+00:20:02,420 --> 00:20:07,800
+منيح إذا كان الinflation صار يزيد بسرعة أكبر يعني
+
+257
+00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:12,300
+خلينا نحكي هان شوفوا هاي الinflation هذا المنقطة
+
+258
+00:20:12,300 --> 00:20:17,200
+الinflation وهي ال growth ال growth هو جاي بهذه
+
+259
+00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:23,080
+الطريقة في نمو بس بعد هيك ال growth صار هذا يرتفع و
+
+260
+00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:29,000
+ال growth ايش ماله؟ خلاص ال growth ثابت و ال
+
+261
+00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:33,480
+inflation بدأ يزيد ارتفاع غير مبرر بالأسعار إذا
+
+262
+00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,840
+كان ال growth بنمو مع ال inflation يعني النمو بمشي
+
+263
+00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,320
+مع ال inflation this is fine ماعناش مشكلة لأن
+
+264
+00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,360
+الدخل للناس عندها فلوس و بتصرف و أمورها مية مية
+
+265
+00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:48,180
+لكن المشكلة أنه التقدم أو التطور هو يجف عند لحظة و
+
+266
+00:20:48,180 --> 00:20:51,660
+بدل الارتفاع الأسعار يزيد فهذا بيسميه هو ال
+
+267
+00:20:51,660 --> 00:20:58,000
+inflation أو بيسموه التضخم الغير مبرر فكويس يكون
+
+268
+00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:02,600
+عنده تضخم في الدولة لأن هو دليل على فيه نمو في
+
+269
+00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,200
+الدولة لكن مش كويس إذا عنده مستوى معين بدل
+
+270
+00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:07,360
+inflation يزيد عن حده
+
+271
+00:21:15,780 --> 00:21:20,260
+لما طبعا يصلوا لمراحل متقدمة في الinflation بيبدوا
+
+272
+00:21:20,260 --> 00:21:25,560
+يدخل الحكومة فهي يعني أحد ال determinants اللي في
+
+273
+00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:29,920
+ال interest rates كمان في determinants أخرى احنا
+
+274
+00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:42,100
+نحكي فيها ال remote control okay أو
+
+275
+00:21:42,100 --> 00:21:42,460
+هي
+
+276
+00:21:49,860 --> 00:21:55,660
+بنفرق بين شغلتين بين ال real and nominal rate of
+
+277
+00:21:55,660 --> 00:21:59,540
+return of interest ال interest rate اللي بنشوفه
+
+278
+00:21:59,540 --> 00:22:01,760
+احنا في السوق لما روحنا .. روحنا على ال bank
+
+279
+00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,860
+نسألهم قداش ال interest rate عندكم؟ قولولي هذا ال
+
+280
+00:22:04,860 --> 00:22:11,960
+interest rate is 10% okay هاي ال 10% نسميها
+
+281
+00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:16,020
+nominal يعني
+
+282
+00:22:16,020 --> 00:22:24,130
+سعر الفائدة الاسمي يحكي nominal مش حقيقي اه مش حقيقي
+
+283
+00:22:24,130 --> 00:22:32,170
+يعني اعطيكوا مثال لو أجينا احنا عملنا
+
+284
+00:22:32,170 --> 00:22:36,310
+للطلاب امتحان وشاف
+
+285
+00:22:36,310 --> 00:22:39,910
+المدرس ان الامتحان يعني الطلاب مش عاملينه منيح
+
+286
+00:22:39,910 --> 00:22:45,480
+فبعملهم push up نفترض هيك is a good news لنفترض أنه
+
+287
+00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:50,300
+طالب كان درجته تمانتاش عملنا بمعادلة معينة عملنا
+
+288
+00:22:50,300 --> 00:22:55,880
+أربع درجات push up فصار الطالب اتنين و عشرين صار
+
+289
+00:22:55,880 --> 00:23:02,520
+كام اتنين و عشرين صح فكرت غلطت بالرياضيات ف ال
+
+290
+00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,940
+nominal اتنين و عشرين هذه ال nominal مش ال .. مش
+
+291
+00:23:06,940 --> 00:23:11,610
+.. مش الحقيقي يعني الظاهري شغلة بس بنشوفها بس هي ال
+
+292
+00:23:11,610 --> 00:23:18,350
+.. ال real mark هي .. ال real mark is not 22 مظبوط
+
+293
+00:23:18,350 --> 00:23:23,130
+ولا لأ؟ هنحكي ال real one هي ال .. ال .. العلامة
+
+294
+00:23:23,130 --> 00:23:27,530
+الظاهرية 22 بس الحقيقة مش هيك المفروض مثلا okay في
+
+295
+00:23:27,530 --> 00:23:34,180
+أربع درجات هدول زيادة صارت فلو اناش نحكي ما هو
+
+296
+00:23:34,180 --> 00:23:37,560
+العلامة الحقيقية ما هو اتنين و عشرين ناقص اربعة
+
+297
+00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,240
+تساوي تمانتاش هذه the effective
+
+298
+00:23:42,660 --> 00:23:46,760
+هذه الحقيقية بقى people generally speaking people
+
+299
+00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,400
+they don't look at the effective one الناس
+
+300
+00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,240
+ماببطلعوش على ال effective ببطلعوا على ال nominal
+
+301
+00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,380
+فلو احنا روحنا على ال bank و سألنا what is the
+
+302
+00:23:55,380 --> 00:23:58,260
+interest rate the bank saying the interest rate is
+
+303
+00:23:58,260 --> 00:24:03,000
+10% بقى in reality the interest rate is not 10% so
+
+304
+00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:08,420
+the question is does the bank earn 10% from the
+
+305
+00:24:08,420 --> 00:24:15,040
+loan هل البنك ربح 10% من القرض؟ يعني مثلا لو أجينا
+
+306
+00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,080
+احنا نحكي مرابحة، مابناش نحكي عن بنك تجارة، نحكي
+
+307
+00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:20,620
+عن مرابحة روحنا نعمل مرابحة عن بنك الإسلام الوطني
+
+308
+00:24:20,620 --> 00:24:23,200
+أو بنك الإسلام الفلسطيني أو أي بنك من هالبروك
+
+309
+00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:29,480
+وحكونا المرابحة 8% أخدنا مثلا 3000 دولار منهم
+
+310
+00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:35,680
+وحكونا 8% عليهم يعني 240 دولار my big question
+
+311
+00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:39,740
+السؤال الكبير سبعيه does the bank make a profit 240
+
+312
+00:24:39,740 --> 00:24:46,420
+$ no definitely no why أجل definitely is lower
+
+313
+00:24:46,420 --> 00:24:54,880
+than .. this is one of the issues this is one of
+
+314
+00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,380
+the problems يعني واحدة منهم من التمانية فيها هي
+
+315
+00:24:58,380 --> 00:25:04,480
+inflation طب و إيش كمان غير inflation إيش في أشياء
+
+316
+00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:09,290
+أخرى يعني إذا بندخل في تفاصيل ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+317
+00:25:09,290 --> 00:25:11,930
+real and nominal and the .. the main objective now
+
+318
+00:25:11,930 --> 00:25:14,350
+is to determine what is the difference between
+
+319
+00:25:14,350 --> 00:25:19,210
+real and nominal. Generally speaking, the real
+
+320
+00:25:19,210 --> 00:25:22,790
+rate of return is lower than the nominal rate of
+
+321
+00:25:22,790 --> 00:25:26,030
+return. بكرا بنجيبلكوا في الامتحان، بنجيبلكوا ياها
+
+322
+00:25:26,030 --> 00:25:29,870
+the opposite. Oh, you didn't say this. مظبوط ولا
+
+323
+00:25:29,870 --> 00:25:35,340
+لأ؟ ال .. دائما ال .. ال .. ال real rate of
+
+324
+00:25:35,340 --> 00:25:41,380
+return is greater than or sorry is less than the
+
+325
+00:25:41,380 --> 00:25:47,960
+nominal rate of return why? because the nominal
+
+326
+00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:52,620
+rate of return includes some parameters or some
+
+327
+00:25:52,620 --> 00:25:58,680
+variables that exceed the nominal rate of return
+
+328
+00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:03,100
+بتخليها تزيد ال nominal rate of return يعني خلّيني
+
+329
+00:26:03,100 --> 00:26:08,930
+أعطيكم مثلًا أكيد أنتوا في البيت بتغلو الشاي أو
+
+330
+00:26:08,930 --> 00:26:13,570
+الشوربة مثلا أو ال Coca Cola ال Coca Cola بنحطها
+
+331
+00:26:13,570 --> 00:26:18,230
+بالكاسة هيك و بتعرفوا ال young ال babies لما نيجي
+
+332
+00:26:18,230 --> 00:26:23,950
+نصب الكولة بال .. بالكاسة هيك بصير تطفو و بعد شوية
+
+333
+00:26:23,950 --> 00:26:26,910
+ال babies looking at the .. at the classes and
+
+334
+00:26:26,910 --> 00:26:31,430
+then it's like very little coke بلاقوها very
+
+335
+00:26:31,430 --> 00:26:37,260
+little لأن هذا اللي صار هو is nominal لما احنا
+
+336
+00:26:37,260 --> 00:26:41,800
+صبناه و صار فيه blow up صار في عندنا الكاس اتعبت
+
+337
+00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:47,780
+مش حقيقي هذا is nominal شكلا just wait to see the
+
+338
+00:26:47,780 --> 00:26:53,100
+reality of the coke يعني شويه انتظرو دقيقة دقيقتين
+
+339
+00:26:53,100 --> 00:26:58,270
+هتشوفوا حقيقة ال Coca Cola it's very little فهذا هو
+
+340
+00:26:58,270 --> 00:27:01,490
+ال nominal this is the difference between the
+
+341
+00:27:01,490 --> 00:27:04,590
+nominal rate of return and the and the real rate
+
+342
+00:27:04,590 --> 00:27:10,910
+of return okay I think it is clear now okay so in
+
+343
+00:27:10,910 --> 00:27:14,130
+for instance as as she said if we have eight
+
+344
+00:27:14,130 --> 00:27:18,430
+percent as as a nominal and two percent the
+
+345
+00:27:18,430 --> 00:27:23,390
+inflation rate in this case other factors are equal
+
+346
+00:27:23,390 --> 00:27:27,350
+يعني ما ثبات العوامل الأخرى it means the real
+
+347
+00:27:27,350 --> 00:27:31,170
+interest rate of return is 6% but again this is
+
+348
+00:27:31,170 --> 00:27:34,510
+not the end of the story هذا مش نهاية القصة
+
+349
+00:27:34,510 --> 00:27:38,950
+because the interest rate of return the real
+
+350
+00:27:38,950 --> 00:27:45,610
+interest rate of return because
+
+351
+00:27:45,610 --> 00:27:51,390
+I if I is the nominal إذا I هي ال nominal I
+
+352
+00:27:51,390 --> 00:27:58,430
+includes the RF risk-free plus inflation premium
+
+353
+00:27:58,430 --> 00:28:03,630
+plus liquidity premium plus maturity premium plus
+
+354
+00:28:03,630 --> 00:28:08,610
+default premium you
+
+355
+00:28:08,610 --> 00:28:11,470
+don't need to memorize this equation just this is
+
+356
+00:28:11,470 --> 00:28:17,470
+for your knowledge يعني ال nominal rates هي تشمل
+
+357
+00:28:17,470 --> 00:28:21,140
+ال risk-free rates و ال inflation rate يعني هدول ..
+
+358
+00:28:21,140 --> 00:28:24,000
+هدول اللي بيعملوا شوفتوا ال .. ال .. الكاسة تبعت
+
+359
+00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,560
+ال Coca Cola هي هدول اللي بيعملوا ال .. الدوشة
+
+360
+00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:32,340
+الكبيرة هذه بأثر عليها بقى ال real is like this ال
+
+361
+00:28:32,340 --> 00:28:36,580
+real هي .. هي just like this فهذا لزيادة جزء منه
+
+362
+00:28:36,580 --> 00:28:41,800
+بيكون risk free جزء منه inflation جزء منه
+
+363
+00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,780
+liquidity problems جزء منه maturity premium جزء
+
+364
+00:28:45,780 --> 00:28:51,240
+منه default premium يعني خلّيني أعطيكم مثال what it
+
+365
+00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:56,740
+means maturity premium فترة استحقاق لو أجينا نرجع
+
+366
+00:28:56,740 --> 00:29:00,240
+للمرابح هاي تبعتنا اللي تمانية في المية كانت صح
+
+367
+00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:06,700
+طيب هل لو جاني واحد بده نفس المبلغ أو تلات تلاف
+
+368
+00:29:06,700 --> 00:29:10,280
+دولار بده نفس تلات تلاف دولار بقى this is just
+
+369
+00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:14,000
+only for one year هذا بس لسنة واحد أجي لسنتين
+
+370
+00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,780
+فهنطلب منه كام هنطلب منه مثلا تمانية في المية هطلب
+
+371
+00:29:17,780 --> 00:29:21,620
+منه خمستاشر في المية طب ال inflation is inflation
+
+372
+00:29:21,620 --> 00:29:26,220
+بس إيش اللي فرجتهام ال maturity فترة الاستخدام فال
+
+373
+00:29:26,220 --> 00:29:31,800
+maturity زودت كام زودت seven percent it means it
+
+374
+00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,960
+doesn't mean that the bank makes fifteen percent
+
+375
+00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:41,660
+profit the bank makes fifteen percent minus two
+
+376
+00:29:41,660 --> 00:29:44,720
+اللي هو 2% بتاعة الـ inflation
+
+377
+00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:51,430
+minus seven percent بتاعة الـ maturity بصفيله كام؟
+
+378
+00:29:51,430 --> 00:29:55,230
+خمسة عشر ناخذ اثنين، ثلاثة عشر، ثلاثة عشر ناخذ سبعة، اللي
+
+379
+00:29:55,230 --> 00:29:59,610
+بتطلع كام؟ ستة، six percent، it is not fifteen
+
+380
+00:29:59,610 --> 00:30:03,710
+percent الفائدة الـ real rate of return is not
+
+381
+00:30:03,710 --> 00:30:06,910
+fifteen percent it is six percent so far we
+
+382
+00:30:06,910 --> 00:30:09,890
+consider only two variables الـ inflation plus the
+
+383
+00:30:09,890 --> 00:30:15,520
+maturity if you notice the deflation what it means
+
+384
+00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:19,860
+inflation inflation it means يعني أنا جئت و .. و
+
+385
+00:30:19,860 --> 00:30:23,600
+السيدة أمل جئت وإحنا الاثنين دخلنا على البنك و
+
+386
+00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:28,080
+قلنا لهم I want three thousand dollar and she
+
+387
+00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,080
+wants three thousand dollar أنا بدي ثلاثة آلاف وهي
+
+388
+00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,520
+ثلاثة آلاف my risk is greater than أمل يعني أنا
+
+389
+00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,600
+بأُنقعد أنا بتحكي عن نفسي بالسالب أنه أنا ما بدفعش
+
+390
+00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:43,390
+فإيش الـ bank هيسوي؟ هيروح يرفع فائدة عليّ مظبوط ولا
+
+391
+00:30:43,390 --> 00:30:47,370
+لأ؟ فهيرفع سعر الفائدة إذا كانت تمثال 8% هيعمل 9%
+
+392
+00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:53,100
+لأنه أمل أمورها مستقرة وتمام وبتدفع وبتعرف الـ 
+
+393
+00:30:53,100 --> 00:30:56,300
+ladies are conservative محافظين كثير وبُحب الأمور
+
+394
+00:30:56,300 --> 00:31:00,180
+تمشي على الطريقة الصحيحة تمام فـ okay بقولها أنت
+
+395
+00:31:00,180 --> 00:31:04,080
+okay eight percent لكن أنا nine percent فراح الـ
+
+396
+00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:08,640
+bank زود كام؟ 1% هاي 1% because I
+
+397
+00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:13,160
+hold risk more than أمل اللي هو default risk يعني
+
+398
+00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,940
+احتمال أنا ما أسدّش يعني أعطيكم مثل لو تروحوا أنتم
+
+399
+00:31:16,940 --> 00:31:22,040
+على الدكانة وتسألوا .. بتكون تشتريوا مثلًا يعني two
+
+400
+00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:26,980
+people اثنين دخلوا محل هذا والمدام تبعته وهذا والـ
+
+401
+00:31:26,980 --> 00:31:31,440
+المدام تبعته بس هذا بينجوسين نصاب وهذا زلمة طيب
+
+402
+00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:35,580
+ايه .. قداش الغسالة .. الزلمة بتاع المشاكل .. قداش
+
+403
+00:31:35,580 --> 00:31:40,720
+الغسالة .. الزلمة صاحب المحل عنده experience بهذا
+
+404
+00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,720
+الرجل إذا كانت الغسالة بألفين شيقل قوله هذه بألفين
+
+405
+00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,700
+وخمسماية شيقل that's it
+
+406
+00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,940
+أه فبقول له هذا يا حبيبي هذا بالألفين وخمسماية
+
+407
+00:31:52,940 --> 00:31:57,480
+شيقل طبعًا ليش هو زود الخمسماية شيقل؟ لأن احتمال هذا
+
+408
+00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,280
+ما يسدّش فهو بيروح برفع السعر عشان إيش ما ياخد منه
+
+409
+00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:05,420
+ياخد وذاك الراجل الطيب أو الألفين شيقل ممكن يحسبه
+
+410
+00:32:05,420 --> 00:32:08,500
+ياها بالألف وتسعماية شيقل لأنه he knows he pay on
+
+411
+00:32:08,500 --> 00:32:13,260
+time يعرفوا أنه هو بدفع بالـ .. بالوجد فشوفنا إيش
+
+412
+00:32:13,260 --> 00:32:16,800
+الفرق بين الـ default الـ default يعني مخاطر عدم
+
+413
+00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:23,420
+الاستدادّة نقف عند هذا الحد تمام؟ وشكرًا لكم حسن
+
+414
+00:32:23,420 --> 00:32:23,920
+تعاونكم
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7c647b4afd82469001bc3337e9fbec26ab36847f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 4643, "start": 20.79, "end": 46.43, "text": "هنحكي بال introduction to risk return and the historical records هذا الموضوع تبعت chapter 5 مقدمة في إدارة المخاطر والعائد وكيف نحسب العائد التاريخي للشركات okay؟ إيش اللي بيحدد أسعار الفوائد؟ interest rate determinants إيش اللي بيحدد أسعار الفوائد؟", "tokens": [3224, 1863, 5016, 4117, 1829, 20666, 9339, 281, 3148, 2736, 293, 264, 8584, 7724, 23758, 9673, 2407, 11242, 45367, 6055, 3555, 34268, 7187, 1025, 3714, 28543, 46007, 8978, 11933, 3215, 9640, 3660, 9673, 9778, 41193, 2288, 16070, 3615, 16373, 3215, 4032, 4117, 33911, 8717, 5016, 35457, 18863, 16373, 3215, 16712, 9640, 1829, 9778, 1829, 24976, 8592, 31747, 9307, 1392, 22807, 11933, 1829, 8592, 13672, 1829, 4724, 1829, 24401, 3215, 5551, 3794, 3615, 9640, 27188, 2407, 16373, 3215, 22807, 1179, 3314, 15957, 1719, 11933, 1829, 8592, 13672, 1829, 4724, 1829, 24401, 3215, 5551, 3794, 3615, 9640, 27188, 2407, 16373, 3215, 22807], "avg_logprob": 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1534.54, "end": 1563.88, "text": "real rate of return is greater than or sorry is less than the nominal rate of return why? because the nominal rate of return includes some parameters or some variables that exceed the nominal rate of return بتخليها تزيد ال nominal rate of return يعني خلّيني أعطيكم مثلًا", "tokens": [9342, 3314, 295, 2736, 307, 5044, 813, 420, 2597, 307, 1570, 813, 264, 41641, 3314, 295, 2736, 983, 30, 570, 264, 41641, 3314, 295, 2736, 5974, 512, 9834, 420, 512, 9102, 300, 14048, 264, 41641, 3314, 295, 2736, 39894, 9778, 20292, 11296, 6055, 11622, 25708, 2423, 41641, 3314, 295, 2736, 37495, 22653, 16490, 1211, 11703, 9957, 1829, 5551, 3615, 9566, 1829, 4117, 2304, 50113, 1211, 14111, 995], "avg_logprob": -0.1897978009108235, "compression_ratio": 1.7471264367816093, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1534.54, "end": 1534.92, "word": "real", "probability": 0.343994140625}, {"start": 1534.92, "end": 1535.2, "word": " rate", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 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babies لما نيجي نصب الكولة بال .. بالكاسة هيك بصير تطفو و بعد شوية ال babies looking at the .. at the classes and then it's like very little coke بلاقوها very little", "tokens": [10721, 4117, 25708, 14739, 2655, 14407, 8978, 2423, 21292, 2655, 39894, 17082, 1211, 2407, 25124, 47302, 34051, 25124, 13063, 49401, 50113, 15040, 34051, 2423, 32719, 48037, 2423, 32719, 48037, 44945, 5016, 9566, 11296, 20666, 4117, 32277, 3660, 39896, 4117, 4032, 39894, 3615, 28480, 14407, 2423, 2037, 2423, 10917, 5296, 15042, 8717, 1829, 7435, 1829, 8717, 9381, 3555, 33251, 12610, 3660, 20666, 4386, 20666, 4117, 32277, 3660, 39896, 4117, 4724, 9381, 13546, 6055, 9566, 5172, 2407, 4032, 39182, 13412, 2407, 10632, 2423, 10917, 1237, 412, 264, 4386, 412, 264, 5359, 293, 550, 309, 311, 411, 588, 707, 33659, 4724, 15040, 4587, 2407, 11296, 588, 707], "avg_logprob": -0.18764880952380952, "compression_ratio": 1.680327868852459, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1565.49, "end": 1566.21, "word": "أكيد", 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"probability": 0.8701171875}, {"start": 1587.09, "end": 1587.29, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.942626953125}, {"start": 1587.29, "end": 1587.49, "word": " like", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 1587.49, "end": 1587.85, "word": " very", "probability": 0.89453125}, {"start": 1587.85, "end": 1588.35, "word": " little", "probability": 0.86572265625}, {"start": 1588.35, "end": 1590.11, "word": " coke", "probability": 0.3251953125}, {"start": 1590.11, "end": 1591.21, "word": " بلاقوها", "probability": 0.665478515625}, {"start": 1591.21, "end": 1591.43, "word": " very", "probability": 0.9140625}, {"start": 1591.43, "end": 1591.75, "word": " little", "probability": 0.86328125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 62, "seek": 161564, "start": 1592.68, "end": 1615.64, "text": "لأن هذا اللي صار هو is nominal لما احنا صبناه و صار فيه blow up صار في عندنا الكاس اتعبت مش حقيقي هذا is nominal شكلا just wait to see the reality of the coke يعني شويه انتظرو دقيقة دقيقتين هتشوفوا حقيقة ال Coca Cola 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1917.48, "end": 1918.12, "word": " مايسندش", "probability": 0.816796875}, {"start": 1918.12, "end": 1918.7, "word": " فهو", "probability": 0.9811197916666666}, {"start": 1918.7, "end": 1919.08, "word": " بيروح", "probability": 0.8721923828125}, {"start": 1919.08, "end": 1919.44, "word": " برفع", "probability": 0.8821614583333334}, {"start": 1919.44, "end": 1919.86, "word": " السعر", "probability": 0.9894205729166666}, {"start": 1919.86, "end": 1920.3, "word": " عشان", "probability": 0.9889322916666666}, {"start": 1920.3, "end": 1920.8, "word": " إيش", "probability": 0.7141927083333334}, {"start": 1920.8, "end": 1920.9, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.90234375}, {"start": 1920.9, "end": 1921.1, "word": " ياخد", "probability": 0.9192708333333334}, {"start": 1921.1, "end": 1921.28, "word": " منه", "probability": 0.98828125}, {"start": 1921.28, "end": 1921.72, "word": " ياخد", "probability": 0.9930013020833334}, {"start": 1921.72, "end": 1922.88, "word": " وذاك", "probability": 0.738037109375}, {"start": 1922.88, "end": 1923.24, "word": " الراجل", "probability": 0.9755859375}, {"start": 1923.24, "end": 1923.76, "word": " الطيب", "probability": 0.9855143229166666}, {"start": 1923.76, "end": 1924.26, "word": " أو", "probability": 0.7666015625}, {"start": 1924.26, "end": 1924.56, "word": " الألفين", "probability": 0.85107421875}, {"start": 1924.56, "end": 1924.82, "word": " شاكل", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 1924.82, "end": 1925.08, "word": " ممكن", "probability": 0.95263671875}, {"start": 1925.08, "end": 1925.42, "word": " يحسبله", "probability": 0.9432373046875}, {"start": 1925.42, "end": 1925.54, "word": " ياها", "probability": 0.305419921875}, {"start": 1925.54, "end": 1925.78, "word": " بالألف", "probability": 0.8753255208333334}, {"start": 1925.78, "end": 1925.86, "word": " و", "probability": 0.490478515625}, {"start": 1925.86, "end": 1926.1, "word": " تسعمية", "probability": 0.91357421875}, {"start": 1926.1, "end": 1926.4, "word": " شاكل", "probability": 0.9855143229166666}, {"start": 1926.4, "end": 1927.02, "word": " لأنه", "probability": 0.7775065104166666}, {"start": 1927.02, "end": 1927.14, "word": " he", "probability": 0.78125}, {"start": 1927.14, "end": 1927.52, "word": " knows", "probability": 0.88818359375}, {"start": 1927.52, "end": 1928.06, "word": " he", "probability": 0.8466796875}, {"start": 1928.06, "end": 1928.32, "word": " pay", "probability": 0.53955078125}, {"start": 1928.32, "end": 1928.5, "word": " on", "probability": 0.9521484375}, {"start": 1928.5, "end": 1928.84, "word": " time", "probability": 0.87744140625}, {"start": 1928.84, "end": 1930.08, "word": " يعرفوا", "probability": 0.8040364583333334}, {"start": 1930.08, "end": 1930.26, "word": " أنه", "probability": 0.71728515625}, {"start": 1930.26, "end": 1930.34, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.78369140625}, {"start": 1930.34, "end": 1930.66, "word": " بدفع", "probability": 0.8902994791666666}, {"start": 1930.66, "end": 1930.9, "word": " بال", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 1930.9, "end": 1931.48, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.310791015625}, {"start": 1931.48, "end": 1931.96, "word": " بالوجد", "probability": 0.7305501302083334}, {"start": 1931.96, "end": 1933.06, "word": " فشوفنا", "probability": 0.968994140625}, {"start": 1933.06, "end": 1933.26, "word": " إيش", "probability": 0.923828125}, {"start": 1933.26, "end": 1933.94, "word": " الفرق", "probability": 0.8391927083333334}, {"start": 1933.94, "end": 1934.64, "word": " بين", "probability": 0.9765625}, {"start": 1934.64, "end": 1934.78, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 1934.78, "end": 1935.24, "word": " default", "probability": 0.9833984375}, {"start": 1935.24, "end": 1935.52, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.5224609375}, {"start": 1935.52, "end": 1935.82, "word": " default", "probability": 0.99365234375}, {"start": 1935.82, "end": 1936.04, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.986572265625}, {"start": 1936.04, "end": 1936.5, "word": " مخاطر", "probability": 0.99267578125}, {"start": 1936.5, "end": 1936.8, "word": " عدم", "probability": 0.974365234375}, {"start": 1936.8, "end": 1938.1, "word": " استدادة", "probability": 0.936279296875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 75, "seek": 194392, "start": 1939.02, "end": 1943.92, "text": "نقف عند هذا الحد تمام؟ وشكرين إلكم حسن تعاونكم", "tokens": [1863, 4587, 5172, 43242, 23758, 21542, 3215, 46811, 10943, 22807, 4032, 8592, 37983, 9957, 11933, 23275, 2304, 11331, 3794, 1863, 37279, 995, 11536, 24793], "avg_logprob": -0.23749999523162843, "compression_ratio": 1.105263157894737, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1939.02, "end": 1939.66, "word": "نقف", "probability": 0.74658203125}, {"start": 1939.66, "end": 1939.8, "word": " عند", "probability": 0.9931640625}, {"start": 1939.8, "end": 1939.98, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.9453125}, {"start": 1939.98, "end": 1940.34, "word": " الحد", "probability": 0.9892578125}, {"start": 1940.34, "end": 1942.14, "word": " تمام؟", "probability": 0.7498372395833334}, {"start": 1942.14, "end": 1942.9, "word": " وشكرين", "probability": 0.6715087890625}, {"start": 1942.9, "end": 1943.16, "word": " إلكم", "probability": 0.7327473958333334}, {"start": 1943.16, "end": 1943.42, "word": " حسن", "probability": 0.8152669270833334}, {"start": 1943.42, "end": 1943.92, "word": " تعاونكم", "probability": 0.9443359375}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 1944.4855, "duration_after_vad": 1843.651249999995}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..657481f12c52f958fe6152e4fcdb1670480638ed
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1656 @@
+1
+00:00:20,790 --> 00:00:23,450
+هنحكي بال introduction to risk return and the
+
+2
+00:00:23,450 --> 00:00:28,270
+historical records هذا الموضوع تبعت chapter 5
+
+3
+00:00:28,270 --> 00:00:36,650
+مقدمة في إدارة المخاطر والعائد وكيف نحسب العائد
+
+4
+00:00:36,650 --> 00:00:41,930
+التاريخي للشركات okay؟ إيش اللي بيحدد أسعار
+
+5
+00:00:41,930 --> 00:00:45,510
+الفوائد؟ interest rate determinants إيش اللي بيحدد
+
+6
+00:00:45,510 --> 00:00:50,350
+أسعار الفوائد؟بحدد أسعار الفوائد اللي هو supply
+
+7
+00:00:50,350 --> 00:00:55,670
+and demand بشكل عام ال supply and demand العرض
+
+8
+00:00:55,670 --> 00:01:01,430
+والطلب طبعا ال
+
+9
+00:01:01,430 --> 00:01:06,590
+supply العرض
+
+10
+00:01:06,590 --> 00:01:15,940
+يعني الشركات بتنتجOkay؟ و بالطرف الآخر ال .. ال ..
+
+11
+00:01:15,940 --> 00:01:20,300
+ال business بي .. بيستهلكوا هذا ال .. ال إنتاج
+
+12
+00:01:20,300 --> 00:01:25,000
+بالنسبة ل ال interest rate determinant عشان نفهم
+
+13
+00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:30,180
+العلاقة إيش ال supply و إيش ال demand علاقة بسيطة
+
+14
+00:01:30,180 --> 00:01:35,320
+مش .. مش .. مش صعبة لكن بدنا نفكر فيها ب .. بهذا
+
+15
+00:01:35,320 --> 00:01:35,720
+الطريقة
+
+16
+00:01:38,950 --> 00:01:43,610
+ال households هم ال savers لو جينا احنا حكيين ال
+
+17
+00:01:43,610 --> 00:01:47,490
+households هم
+
+18
+00:01:47,490 --> 00:01:55,730
+الناس اللي عندهم saving عندهم ايش؟ saving so
+
+19
+00:01:55,730 --> 00:02:02,850
+because they have saving they supply the money to
+
+20
+00:02:02,850 --> 00:02:04,390
+business
+
+21
+00:02:08,100 --> 00:02:13,140
+إذا زي ما إحنا شايفين ال .. ال household they have
+
+22
+00:02:13,140 --> 00:02:16,880
+the .. the .. the money okay so they supply the
+
+23
+00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:23,460
+money to the business fine and in the opposite
+
+24
+00:02:23,460 --> 00:02:25,880
+there is a demand
+
+25
+00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,760
+there is a demand by the business on the money في
+
+26
+00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:36,240
+طلب من ال business الشركات الشركات بتطلب الأموال
+
+27
+00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,300
+هذه عشان يعملوا starting up يعملوا مشاريعهم
+
+28
+00:02:39,300 --> 00:02:45,940
+expansion يتوسعوا and so on لذن هذه العلاقة بين ال
+
+29
+00:02:45,940 --> 00:02:50,300
+interest rate وال supply and demand طيب إذا ال
+
+30
+00:02:50,300 --> 00:02:54,080
+supply زاد إذا احنا أخدنا بعين الاعتبار the supply
+
+31
+00:02:54,080 --> 00:03:00,080
+if the supply increaseال I ال interest rates
+
+32
+00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:05,180
+بتنخفض هذا طبيعي تمام؟ هذا يعرفينه القوانين العرض
+
+33
+00:03:05,180 --> 00:03:11,380
+و الطلب ال supply العرض و ال demand الطلب ال
+
+34
+00:03:11,380 --> 00:03:16,120
+household هم ال ناس ال savers اللي هم المدخرين و
+
+35
+00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:20,640
+ال business هم الشركات فالناس المدخرين اللي معهم
+
+36
+00:03:20,640 --> 00:03:26,460
+فلوس و هذا شرحناه ب chapter 2أذكركوا ب chapter two
+
+37
+00:03:26,460 --> 00:03:30,260
+لما احنا كنا نحكي ال savers بروحوا على ال
+
+38
+00:03:30,260 --> 00:03:33,460
+financial intermediaries مظبوط و ال financial
+
+39
+00:03:33,460 --> 00:03:35,880
+intermediaries بروحوا على .. بودوا الفلوس تبعتهم
+
+40
+00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:42,410
+على الناس اللي عندهم deficit، في عندهم عجزةOkay so
+
+41
+00:03:42,410 --> 00:03:46,470
+the .. the fund flows from the savers to the .. to
+
+42
+00:03:46,470 --> 00:03:51,650
+the deficit يعني الشركات هلأ لما بدي تعمل استثمار
+
+43
+00:03:51,650 --> 00:03:55,630
+بدها .. بدها فلوس صح ولا لأ طب الفلوس من وم ده
+
+44
+00:03:55,630 --> 00:03:59,370
+تيجي؟ ده تيجي من ال saving or من ال savers إذا ال
+
+45
+00:03:59,370 --> 00:04:03,610
+savers فلوسهم كتير okay يعني في فلوس كتير عند ال
+
+46
+00:04:03,610 --> 00:04:08,420
+savers مع الكلام ال interest rate هتنخفضOkay إذا
+
+47
+00:04:08,420 --> 00:04:12,920
+ال demand كان أعلى if the demand greater than إذا
+
+48
+00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:17,420
+كان ال D greater than S يعني ال demand أكبر من ال
+
+49
+00:04:17,420 --> 00:04:23,980
+saving فبصير ال interest rate إيش؟ ال I ترتفع فهذا
+
+50
+00:04:23,980 --> 00:04:28,100
+زي ما نجيبكوا شفته في الامتحان إنه زي ال correct
+
+51
+00:04:28,100 --> 00:04:32,900
+نجيبكم correct the statement واضحة if the demand
+
+52
+00:04:32,900 --> 00:04:37,010
+greater than the savingso the interest rate will
+
+53
+00:04:37,010 --> 00:04:43,050
+go down is this right if the demand greater than
+
+54
+00:04:43,050 --> 00:04:48,230
+the supply so the interest rate will go down no
+
+55
+00:04:48,230 --> 00:04:53,210
+it's the opposite so when this the demand exceed
+
+56
+00:04:53,210 --> 00:04:57,110
+the supply طبعا نفس الجملة so the interest rate
+
+57
+00:04:57,110 --> 00:05:02,490
+will go upيعني بيكون الطلب أكبر من العرض فبيكون
+
+58
+00:05:02,490 --> 00:05:06,430
+السعر الفائد بيرتفع الطلب على الأموال يعني هلأ
+
+59
+00:05:06,430 --> 00:05:11,450
+مثلا نيجي مثال Bank فلسطين أو Bank الإسلامي عنده
+
+60
+00:05:11,450 --> 00:05:17,770
+مثلا مائة ألف دولار من ال savers ال savers هلأ
+
+61
+00:05:17,770 --> 00:05:21,550
+الناس اللي .. اللي .. اللي بدهم ياخدوا قروض اللي
+
+62
+00:05:21,550 --> 00:05:24,570
+هم ال business or people they asking two hundred
+
+63
+00:05:24,570 --> 00:05:29,150
+thousand dollarبدهم 200 ألف دولار ففي الحالة هذه
+
+64
+00:05:29,150 --> 00:05:33,670
+ال .. ال demand is greater than the supply so what
+
+65
+00:05:33,670 --> 00:05:36,130
+bank of Palestine will do is to increase the
+
+66
+00:05:36,130 --> 00:05:41,830
+interest rate هيروح يرفع سعر الفائدة when .. when
+
+67
+00:05:41,830 --> 00:05:44,010
+the bank of Palestine increase the interest rate
+
+68
+00:05:44,010 --> 00:05:47,450
+some .. some peoplereluctant to do it or to take
+
+69
+00:05:47,450 --> 00:05:52,090
+the loan بعض الناس هيترددوا في أخذ القروض وبالتالي
+
+70
+00:05:52,090 --> 00:05:55,390
+هيفضل يصير في equilibrium equilibrium يعني معناه
+
+71
+00:05:55,390 --> 00:05:59,470
+هيصير فيه توازن بين العرض و الطلب if the opposite
+
+72
+00:05:59,470 --> 00:06:03,330
+إذا كان الأكس يعني bank of palestine has two
+
+73
+00:06:03,330 --> 00:06:07,170
+hundred thousands and people wants one hundred
+
+74
+00:06:07,170 --> 00:06:11,370
+thousands so bank of palestine will make the price
+
+75
+00:06:11,370 --> 00:06:14,700
+or the interest rate to go downهيخلّي سعر الفائدة
+
+76
+00:06:14,700 --> 00:06:21,200
+تنخفض yes
+
+77
+00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:27,040
+الفائدة بتتناسب ترضي مع ال demand صح و بتتناسب
+
+78
+00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:32,000
+عكسي okay so it means in the English language it
+
+79
+00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:38,200
+means the interest rate has a positive function
+
+80
+00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:42,560
+with the demandHowever it has a negative function
+
+81
+00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:47,380
+with the supply، okay؟
+
+82
+00:06:47,380 --> 00:06:51,820
+في حد عنده سؤال؟
+
+83
+00:06:51,820 --> 00:06:55,800
+ال governments،
+
+84
+00:06:55,800 --> 00:07:01,520
+but this is .. this
+
+85
+00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,860
+is fine before the intervention of the governments
+
+86
+00:07:05,970 --> 00:07:08,910
+because at the end of the day the government has
+
+87
+00:07:08,910 --> 00:07:12,870
+the big hands on influence on the interest rates
+
+88
+00:07:12,870 --> 00:07:16,850
+يعني هذا كلام صحيح بعيد عن تدخل ال government بعيد
+
+89
+00:07:16,850 --> 00:07:20,270
+عن تدخل الحكومة لأن الحكومة لها ال big hands or
+
+90
+00:07:20,270 --> 00:07:23,490
+the long hands اللي لها اليد الطولة في التأثير على
+
+91
+00:07:23,490 --> 00:07:26,630
+أسعار الفوائد because there is central bank لأن
+
+92
+00:07:26,630 --> 00:07:29,920
+فيه البنك المركزي and the central bankcontrol over
+
+93
+00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,640
+the interest rates and there is the minister of
+
+94
+00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:35,140
+finance, minister of finance has the monetary
+
+95
+00:07:35,140 --> 00:07:40,440
+policy بيأثر من خلال السياسات المالية so all of
+
+96
+00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:44,340
+these policies influence on the interest rates
+
+97
+00:07:44,340 --> 00:07:49,680
+بتأثر على ال interest ratesSo the government's net
+
+98
+00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:53,140
+supply and demand has big influence on the
+
+99
+00:07:53,140 --> 00:07:57,440
+interest rates خلّينا ناخد for instance if the
+
+100
+00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:01,040
+government observe that the interest rate is going
+
+101
+00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:04,680
+up إذا
+
+102
+00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:06,720
+ال government لاحظت إنه ال interest rate قاعدة
+
+103
+00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:12,780
+بتطلع وكل ما ال investment ال interest rate is
+
+104
+00:08:12,780 --> 00:08:16,970
+going up be careful herewhen the interest rate is
+
+105
+00:08:16,970 --> 00:08:25,250
+going up people they .. they reluctant to get
+
+106
+00:08:25,250 --> 00:08:28,410
+loans from the banks يعني كل ما ال interest rate
+
+107
+00:08:28,410 --> 00:08:31,950
+بتطلع الناس بي .. بيبتعدوا عن البنوك لياخدوا قروض
+
+108
+00:08:31,950 --> 00:08:36,810
+والشركات بتبدأ كمان ان هى تبتعد وبالتالي ال
+
+109
+00:08:36,810 --> 00:08:39,470
+investment بنخفض ال investments
+
+110
+00:08:42,620 --> 00:08:48,300
+in this case the governments cannot leave their
+
+111
+00:08:48,300 --> 00:08:52,340
+hands off ايش معناه leaves their hands off يعني
+
+112
+00:08:52,340 --> 00:08:57,020
+بتتركش ايديها مكتوفين so they intervene in this
+
+113
+00:08:57,020 --> 00:09:03,820
+بتدخله okay for instance the governments the
+
+114
+00:09:03,820 --> 00:09:07,140
+government intervene by supplying the banks
+
+115
+00:09:07,140 --> 00:09:12,370
+بيعملوا supplyingأه and the government sometimes
+
+116
+00:09:12,370 --> 00:09:16,190
+intervene directly and indirectly بت .. بتدخله
+
+117
+00:09:16,190 --> 00:09:20,330
+directly or indirectly يعني يا أما تدخل مباشر يا
+
+118
+00:09:20,330 --> 00:09:25,330
+أما تدخل غير مباشر okay as .. as we say here
+
+119
+00:09:25,330 --> 00:09:30,930
+supply and demand when they observe the liquidity
+
+120
+00:09:30,930 --> 00:09:35,650
+which is .. the liquidity is one of the .. the
+
+121
+00:09:35,650 --> 00:09:41,790
+measures of the supplyOkay هذه ال liquidity when
+
+122
+00:09:41,790 --> 00:09:45,330
+they observe the liquidity is growing up you know
+
+123
+00:09:45,330 --> 00:09:49,530
+what it means growing up يعني بتكبر so they try to
+
+124
+00:09:49,530 --> 00:09:53,670
+intervene to absorb this liquidity بتدخله عشان to
+
+125
+00:09:53,670 --> 00:09:58,670
+shrink to shrink this يتقلصوا يعني بنفسوها شوية
+
+126
+00:09:58,670 --> 00:10:03,990
+okay and when they observe this liquidity shrink
+
+127
+00:10:03,990 --> 00:10:09,690
+they start to blow it upplot it up يعني بيصيروا
+
+128
+00:10:09,690 --> 00:10:12,830
+ينفخوا في ال .. and to make this greater than
+
+129
+00:10:12,830 --> 00:10:17,010
+before يعني بالأخير the government intervene to
+
+130
+00:10:17,010 --> 00:10:21,210
+try to make the balance interest تعمل balance
+
+131
+00:10:21,210 --> 00:10:27,190
+interest okay so this is the idea of the interest
+
+132
+00:10:27,190 --> 00:10:34,370
+rate determinant okay so
+
+133
+00:10:34,370 --> 00:10:37,690
+any question here okay أي سؤال؟
+
+134
+00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:46,340
+So again just to summarize what I'm saying
+
+135
+00:10:51,890 --> 00:10:55,350
+هيتدخلوا ب two policies هيتدخلوا في ال monitor مش
+
+136
+00:10:55,350 --> 00:10:58,530
+موضوعنا بس انا هجاوبك مش موضوعنا how they .. the
+
+137
+00:10:58,530 --> 00:11:01,370
+government intervene to control over the interest
+
+138
+00:11:01,370 --> 00:11:05,210
+rates but they are using two different policies
+
+139
+00:11:05,210 --> 00:11:08,210
+يعني هم مش .. مش .. مش موضوعنا احنا كيف ال
+
+140
+00:11:08,210 --> 00:11:10,890
+government intervene لأن هذا بال public finance
+
+141
+00:11:10,890 --> 00:11:13,490
+بتاخدوها هذا بالمالية العامة المفروض بتاخدوها او
+
+142
+00:11:13,490 --> 00:11:17,150
+بال .. بال economics او بال اقتصاد public finance
+
+143
+00:11:17,150 --> 00:11:22,750
+او macro economics اقتصاد كلهbut the idea is here
+
+144
+00:11:22,750 --> 00:11:28,470
+the government intervene by using monetary policy
+
+145
+00:11:28,470 --> 00:11:38,610
+okay and monetary policy and financial policy yes
+
+146
+00:11:42,500 --> 00:11:44,700
+so they are using two different types of policies
+
+147
+00:11:44,700 --> 00:11:49,740
+monetary policy and financial policy بتدخلوا في ال
+
+148
+00:11:49,740 --> 00:11:52,740
+monetary policy و في ال financial policy ال
+
+149
+00:11:52,740 --> 00:11:55,800
+monetary policy اللي هي السياسة النقدية ال
+
+150
+00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:59,340
+financial policy هي السياسة المالية so the
+
+151
+00:11:59,340 --> 00:12:02,760
+financial policy here is running by the minister
+
+152
+00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,880
+of finance and the monetary policy is running by
+
+153
+00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:10,820
+the central bankيعني السياسة النخدية بتتم التحكم
+
+154
+00:12:10,820 --> 00:12:15,120
+فيها من قبل البنك المركزي و ال financial policy is
+
+155
+00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,920
+running by the ministry of finance من خلال وزارة
+
+156
+00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:23,240
+المالية okay so this is the relationship by using
+
+157
+00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,000
+the two different types of policies
+
+158
+00:12:28,190 --> 00:12:32,770
+the government can control over the liquidity or
+
+159
+00:12:32,770 --> 00:12:35,930
+can control over the interest rates بتدخله بال ..
+
+160
+00:12:35,930 --> 00:12:40,050
+بال .. بال interest rates the advanced economic
+
+161
+00:12:40,050 --> 00:12:43,830
+they intervene indirectly and influence on the
+
+162
+00:12:43,830 --> 00:12:48,410
+interest rates خدوا بالكم يعني بالاختصاديات in the
+
+163
+00:12:48,410 --> 00:12:51,230
+developed countries يعني في الدول المتقدمة in the
+
+164
+00:12:51,230 --> 00:12:55,610
+developed countries they intervene by using
+
+165
+00:12:55,610 --> 00:13:02,370
+indirect policiesبتدخله باستخدام وسياسات غير
+
+166
+00:13:02,370 --> 00:13:07,290
+مباشرة however العكس however in the less developed
+
+167
+00:13:07,290 --> 00:13:11,030
+countries or in developing countries they use the
+
+168
+00:13:11,030 --> 00:13:15,590
+direct influence on the either financial policy
+
+169
+00:13:15,590 --> 00:13:21,990
+and the monetary policyOkay so this is the
+
+170
+00:13:21,990 --> 00:13:26,970
+interest rates again there are other determinants
+
+171
+00:13:26,970 --> 00:13:30,230
+of the interest rates the other determinants these
+
+172
+00:13:30,230 --> 00:13:38,250
+determinants for instance such
+
+173
+00:13:38,250 --> 00:13:42,650
+inflation واحدة من ال determinants ال inflation
+
+174
+00:13:43,970 --> 00:13:47,370
+بتأثر ال inflation ال inflation زي ما انتوا شايفين
+
+175
+00:13:47,370 --> 00:13:51,430
+is the increase in the liquidity حد بعرف شو معناه
+
+176
+00:13:51,430 --> 00:13:59,590
+ال inflation تضخم؟ شو هو التضخم؟ طيب انا بده يعني
+
+177
+00:13:59,590 --> 00:14:04,610
+نقشوني هيك حتة حتة عشان انا مش فاهم ال inflation
+
+178
+00:14:04,610 --> 00:14:09,130
+so I need to understand what it means inflation as
+
+179
+00:14:09,130 --> 00:14:12,940
+she said what did you sayالتفاهمة اللي موجودة في
+
+180
+00:14:12,940 --> 00:14:18,380
+الأسعار طب أنا بقولك هذا مش inflation خليني ..
+
+181
+00:14:18,380 --> 00:14:22,140
+يمكن كلامك صح يمكن كلامك صح بقى I'm .. I'm just
+
+182
+00:14:22,140 --> 00:14:25,480
+try to see to what level you understand what it
+
+183
+00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,300
+means inflation يعني أنا بحاول أوصل لقداش انت
+
+184
+00:14:29,300 --> 00:14:33,560
+فاهمة في ال inflation okay انتفضت واشتراقية
+
+185
+00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,780
+للإنسان وهي كلامه عن طول تذكيره كان مستمر وعلى
+
+186
+00:14:36,780 --> 00:14:42,780
+سعارة عامة .. عامة الخدماتطب إذا كان .. طب خلينا
+
+187
+00:14:42,780 --> 00:14:47,160
+نحكي بال .. ب .. بأوروبا مثلا و ببعض الدول الأسعار
+
+188
+00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,880
+بترتفع لكن ممكن ما نعتبره inflation أو ممكن نعتبره
+
+189
+00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:54,860
+inflation .. تفضل انا بعض النقطات أخطر ان يكون
+
+190
+00:14:54,860 --> 00:14:59,440
+السبع أو الخدمة قليلة .. تمام فالأسعار بتبدأ ترتفع
+
+191
+00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:04,370
+.. يعني هو بكون نمكنبس إنه يعني قانيل السلع و هو
+
+192
+00:15:04,370 --> 00:15:07,310
+بتدفع أكتر أكتر عشان يبسل عليها فتبسيل ارتفاع كل
+
+193
+00:15:07,310 --> 00:15:11,010
+الأسعار طب و هلا سؤال هل .. هل .. هل ال .. ال ..
+
+194
+00:15:11,010 --> 00:15:14,090
+ال .. ارتفاع ال inflation هذا كويس و لا مش كويس؟
+
+195
+00:15:14,090 --> 00:15:21,070
+جاوبوني هيك بصراحة ال inflation is .. is a .. a
+
+196
+00:15:21,070 --> 00:15:23,730
+good signal to the economy or a bad signal؟
+
+197
+00:15:30,060 --> 00:15:32,920
+خلينا نسمع .. نسمع الكلام .. تفضل .. بس أنا بس لأ
+
+198
+00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:36,140
+أعمل قراياتين في أقل من أوروبا بس يكون الدخل ..
+
+199
+00:15:36,140 --> 00:15:38,580
+مثلا الدخل يجب أنه كبير .. الأسعار كبيرة .. تمام
+
+200
+00:15:38,580 --> 00:15:40,900
+.. من هناك على الدخل المدرسي أو الدولي .. يكون
+
+201
+00:15:40,900 --> 00:15:47,900
+الدخل أقل من .. من الأسعار المراجية .. اه
+
+202
+00:15:47,900 --> 00:15:53,060
+.. طيب تفضل .. خصوصا في أوروبا .. في بنينا ..
+
+203
+00:15:53,060 --> 00:15:56,320
+المؤسسة اللي بتوفيها أسعار عقرة .. هذا السبب ليش
+
+204
+00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:56,900
+في بنينا؟
+
+205
+00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:04,920
+الانفلاشن الكلامكوا مية في المية صحيح لكن بنضيف
+
+206
+00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:09,320
+شوية تعديلات عليهم الانفلاشن is a good sign not a
+
+207
+00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:14,940
+bad sign انا يمكن تتفاجأوا ان احنا بنحكي بالكلام
+
+208
+00:16:14,940 --> 00:16:22,680
+عنه لأنه إيجابي للانفلاشن مش غلط يعني but to a
+
+209
+00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:28,490
+particular level عند حد معين why؟because inflation
+
+210
+00:16:28,490 --> 00:16:34,890
+is an indicator for the growth rate هو مؤشر لنمو
+
+211
+00:16:34,890 --> 00:16:39,150
+لما بيصير عنده نمو الأسعار أكيد بترتفع definitely
+
+212
+00:16:39,150 --> 00:16:44,970
+هترتفع if there is increase in the economy هيصير
+
+213
+00:16:44,970 --> 00:16:50,370
+ارتفاع في الأسعار okay هذا الارتفاع في الأسعار
+
+214
+00:16:50,370 --> 00:16:54,290
+يقابله ارتفاع في النموفي ال growth rates بال GDP
+
+215
+00:16:54,290 --> 00:17:00,210
+بال GNP معرفينهم okay لكن where is .. where is
+
+216
+00:17:00,210 --> 00:17:04,490
+when the inflation considered as a bad sign متى
+
+217
+00:17:04,490 --> 00:17:07,990
+ممكن احنا نعتبر ال inflation is a bad sign؟
+
+218
+00:17:07,990 --> 00:17:14,970
+هنعتبره كالتالي ال inflation هذا
+
+219
+00:17:14,970 --> 00:17:18,050
+ال inflation is increasing in the price ارتفاع في
+
+220
+00:17:18,050 --> 00:17:24,160
+الأسعارطب ليش في ارتفاع في الأسعار لأنه في نموه في
+
+221
+00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:29,080
+الدولة في نموه اقتصادي في انتاج في طلب زي ما
+
+222
+00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:33,420
+اتفضلت هان انه في دخل للناس و .. و .. و .. و كل ما
+
+223
+00:17:33,420 --> 00:17:38,000
+الإنسان بزيد دخله بزيد استهلاكه و .. و المصانع
+
+224
+00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,260
+بتصير تزيد إنتاجها و بصير نمو هذا أشي طبيعي طب إذا
+
+225
+00:17:42,260 --> 00:17:44,920
+في ارتفاع أسعار طبيعي حسيه و .. و هذا is indicator
+
+226
+00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:45,720
+for the growth
+
+227
+00:17:49,150 --> 00:17:51,530
+اه احنا بنحكي على الكلام هذا بنحكي على
+
+228
+00:17:51,530 --> 00:17:56,970
+industrialized countries الدول الصناعية احنا اللي
+
+229
+00:17:56,970 --> 00:18:03,770
+عندنا اسمها بيسموه Stag Inflation Stag Inflation
+
+230
+00:18:03,770 --> 00:18:07,570
+إيش معناه Stag Inflation مارا عليكم المصطلح؟ تدخل
+
+231
+00:18:07,570 --> 00:18:12,480
+مستورديعني هذا .. هذا ال inflation تبعنا مش هو
+
+232
+00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,880
+احنا سببه سببه انه احنا بتأثرين في دول صناعية فلما
+
+233
+00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,420
+تصير ارتفاع أسعار في الدول الصناعية هتصير ارتفاع
+
+234
+00:18:18,420 --> 00:18:22,240
+أسعار لنا بس خلينا نشوف ارتفاع الأسعار في الدول
+
+235
+00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:27,800
+الصناعية كيف بيصير لما يكون انت داخلك الف شاكل
+
+236
+00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:32,460
+بتشتريه بألف شاكل صح ولا لأ؟ يعني مثلا لو واحد
+
+237
+00:18:32,460 --> 00:18:36,980
+عنده داخل ألف شاكل لنفترض بيشتريله تمامية شاكل و
+
+238
+00:18:36,980 --> 00:18:44,230
+200 شاكل saving صح؟طب لو سار دخله ألفين شاكل نفترض
+
+239
+00:18:44,230 --> 00:18:49,550
+هزيد استهلاكه خمس مائة شاكل و خمس مائة شاكل هدول
+
+240
+00:18:49,550 --> 00:18:57,970
+يعملهم saving طب لو واحد دخله عشر تلاف شاكل هيشرب
+
+241
+00:18:57,970 --> 00:19:03,050
+تمان تلاف شاكل و saving two thousand شاكل ايش
+
+242
+00:19:03,050 --> 00:19:07,510
+بتلاحظوا؟كل ما زاد الدخل زاد الاستهلاك طيب زاد
+
+243
+00:19:07,510 --> 00:19:11,770
+الاستهلاك بزيد الطلب على الشركات سيارات طيارات
+
+244
+00:19:11,770 --> 00:19:15,690
+traveling اه الناس بدها تروح تعمل traveling و تروح
+
+245
+00:19:15,690 --> 00:19:19,570
+تنبسط و تروح تعمل tourist و يزوروا ال .. okay و
+
+246
+00:19:19,570 --> 00:19:24,580
+يصير عندهم enjoyment فزاد الطلب زاد الإنتاجبصير
+
+247
+00:19:24,580 --> 00:19:27,660
+نمو في الدولة ولا لأ؟ لما يصير عندهم إنها سيارات
+
+248
+00:19:27,660 --> 00:19:31,080
+حديثة وكذا بتصير بدهم يطالبوا طرق نظيفة وانشئات
+
+249
+00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,220
+ويصير الناس معاهم الفلوس بدهم coffee shops على
+
+250
+00:19:33,220 --> 00:19:36,940
+البحر وعلى أي شيء هذا اللي راح يصير، مظبوط ولا لأ؟
+
+251
+00:19:36,940 --> 00:19:41,620
+وبقى بيصير فيه developments، بيصير فيه تطور، هلأ
+
+252
+00:19:41,620 --> 00:19:46,140
+اللي بيصير أنه عند الأسعار بتزيد لأنه في طلب في
+
+253
+00:19:46,140 --> 00:19:53,180
+demand و هذا is inflation و ال growth بيزيدإذا كان
+
+254
+00:19:53,180 --> 00:19:57,340
+في عندى up to 10% إذا كان الinflation up to 10%
+
+255
+00:19:57,340 --> 00:20:02,420
+لعندك 10% بيكون هذا is a good indicator بيكون كويس
+
+256
+00:20:02,420 --> 00:20:07,800
+منيح إذا كان الinflation صار يزيد بسرعة أكبر يعني
+
+257
+00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:12,300
+خلينا نحكي هان شوفوا هاي الinflation هذا المنقطة
+
+258
+00:20:12,300 --> 00:20:17,200
+الinflation وهي ال growth ال growth هو جاي بهذه
+
+259
+00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:23,080
+الطريقة في نمو بس بعد هيك ال growthصار هذا يرتفع و
+
+260
+00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:29,000
+ال growth ايش ماله؟ خلاص ال growth ثابت و ال
+
+261
+00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:33,480
+inflation بدأ يزيد ارتفاع غير مبرر بالاسعار إذا
+
+262
+00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,840
+كان ال growth بنمو مع ال inflation يعني النمو بمشي
+
+263
+00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,320
+مع ال inflation this is fine ماعناش مشكلة لأن
+
+264
+00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,360
+الدخل للناس عندها فلوس و بتصرف و أمورها مية مية
+
+265
+00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:48,180
+لكن المشكلة أنهالتقدم أو التطور هو يجف عند لحظة و
+
+266
+00:20:48,180 --> 00:20:51,660
+بدل الارتفاع الأسعاري يزيد فهذا بيسميه هو ال
+
+267
+00:20:51,660 --> 00:20:58,000
+inflation أو بيسموه التضخم الغير مبرر فكويس يكون
+
+268
+00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:02,600
+عنده تضخم في الدولة لأن هو دليل على فيه نمو في
+
+269
+00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,200
+الدولة لكن مش كويس إذا عنده مستوى معين بدل
+
+270
+00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:07,360
+inflation يزيد عن حده
+
+271
+00:21:15,780 --> 00:21:20,260
+لما طبعا يصلوا لمراحل متقدمة في الinflation بيبدوا
+
+272
+00:21:20,260 --> 00:21:25,560
+يدخل الحكومة فهي يعني أحد ال determinants اللي في
+
+273
+00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:29,920
+ال interest rates كمان في determinants أخرى هحنا
+
+274
+00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:42,100
+نحكي فيها ال remote control okay او
+
+275
+00:21:42,100 --> 00:21:42,460
+هي
+
+276
+00:21:49,860 --> 00:21:55,660
+بنفرق بين شغلتين بين ال real and nominal rate of
+
+277
+00:21:55,660 --> 00:21:59,540
+return of interest ال interest rate اللي بنشوفه
+
+278
+00:21:59,540 --> 00:22:01,760
+احنا في السوق لما روحنا .. روحنا على ال bank
+
+279
+00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,860
+نسألهم قداش ال interest rate عندكم؟ قولولي هذا ال
+
+280
+00:22:04,860 --> 00:22:11,960
+interest rate is 10% okay هاي ال 10% نسميها
+
+281
+00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:16,020
+nominal يعني
+
+282
+00:22:16,020 --> 00:22:24,130
+سعر الفائدةالاسم يحكي nominal مش حقيقي اه مش حقيقي
+
+283
+00:22:24,130 --> 00:22:32,170
+يعني اعطيكوا مثال لو أجينا احنا عملنا
+
+284
+00:22:32,170 --> 00:22:36,310
+للطلاب امتحان وشاف
+
+285
+00:22:36,310 --> 00:22:39,910
+المدرس ان الامتحان يعني الطلاب مش عاملينه منيح
+
+286
+00:22:39,910 --> 00:22:45,480
+فبعملهم push upنفترض هيك is a good news لنفترض أنه
+
+287
+00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:50,300
+طالب كان درجته تمانتاش عملنا بمعادلة معينة عملنا
+
+288
+00:22:50,300 --> 00:22:55,880
+أربع درجات push up فصار الطالب اتنين و عشرين صار
+
+289
+00:22:55,880 --> 00:23:02,520
+كام اتنين و عشرين صح فكرت غلطت بالغياضيات ف ال
+
+290
+00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,940
+nominal اتنين و عشرين هذه ال nominal مش ال .. مش
+
+291
+00:23:06,940 --> 00:23:11,610
+.. مش الحقيقي يعنيالظاهري شغلة بس بنشوفها بس هي ال
+
+292
+00:23:11,610 --> 00:23:18,350
+.. ال real mark هي .. ال real mark is not 22 مظبوط
+
+293
+00:23:18,350 --> 00:23:23,130
+ولا لأ؟ هنحكي ال real one هي ال .. ال .. العلامة
+
+294
+00:23:23,130 --> 00:23:27,530
+الظاهرية 22 بس الحقيقة مش هيك المفروض مثلا okay في
+
+295
+00:23:27,530 --> 00:23:34,180
+أربع درجات هدول زيادة صارتفلو اناش نحكي ما هو
+
+296
+00:23:34,180 --> 00:23:37,560
+العلامة الحقيقية ما هو اتنين و عشرين ناقص اربعة
+
+297
+00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,240
+تساوي تمانتاش هذه the effective
+
+298
+00:23:42,660 --> 00:23:46,760
+هذه الحقية بقى people generally speaking people
+
+299
+00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,400
+they don't look at the effective one الناس
+
+300
+00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,240
+ماببطلعوش على ال effective ببطلعوا على ال nominal
+
+301
+00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,380
+فلو احنا روحنا على ال bank و سألنا what is the
+
+302
+00:23:55,380 --> 00:23:58,260
+interest rate the bank saying the interest rate is
+
+303
+00:23:58,260 --> 00:24:03,000
+10% بقى in reality the interest rate is not 10% so
+
+304
+00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:08,420
+the question is does the bank earn 10% from the
+
+305
+00:24:08,420 --> 00:24:15,040
+loanهل البنك ربح 10% من القرد؟ يعني مثلا لو أجينا
+
+306
+00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,080
+احنا نحكي مرابحة، مابناش نحكي عن بنك تجارة، نحكي
+
+307
+00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:20,620
+عن مرابحة روحنا نعمل مرابحة عن بنك الإسلام الوطني
+
+308
+00:24:20,620 --> 00:24:23,200
+أو بنك الإسلام الفلسطيني أو أي بنك من هالبروك
+
+309
+00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:29,480
+وحكونا المرابحة 8% أخدنا مثلا 3000 دولار منهم
+
+310
+00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:35,680
+وحكونا 8% عليهم يعني 240 دولار my big question
+
+311
+00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:39,740
+السؤال الكبير سبعيه does the bankmake a profit 240
+
+312
+00:24:39,740 --> 00:24:46,420
+$ no definitely no why أجل definitely is lower
+
+313
+00:24:46,420 --> 00:24:54,880
+than .. this is one of the issues this is one of
+
+314
+00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,380
+the problems يعني واحدة منهم من التمانية فيها هي
+
+315
+00:24:58,380 --> 00:25:04,480
+inflation طب و إيش كمان غير inflation إيش في أشياء
+
+316
+00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:09,290
+أخرىيعني إذا بندخل في تفاصيل ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+317
+00:25:09,290 --> 00:25:11,930
+real and nominal and the .. the main objective now
+
+318
+00:25:11,930 --> 00:25:14,350
+is to determine what is the difference between
+
+319
+00:25:14,350 --> 00:25:19,210
+real and nominal. Generally speaking, the real
+
+320
+00:25:19,210 --> 00:25:22,790
+rate of return is lower than the nominal rate of
+
+321
+00:25:22,790 --> 00:25:26,030
+return. بكرا بنجيبلكوا في الامتحان، بنجيبلكوا ياها
+
+322
+00:25:26,030 --> 00:25:29,870
+the opposite. Oh, you didn't say this. مظبوط ولا
+
+323
+00:25:29,870 --> 00:25:35,340
+لأ؟ ال .. دائما ال .. ال .. ال realreal rate of
+
+324
+00:25:35,340 --> 00:25:41,380
+return is greater than or sorry is less than the
+
+325
+00:25:41,380 --> 00:25:47,960
+nominal rate of return why? because the nominal
+
+326
+00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:52,620
+rate of return includes some parameters or some
+
+327
+00:25:52,620 --> 00:25:58,680
+variables that exceed the nominal rate of return
+
+328
+00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:03,100
+بتخليها تزيد ال nominal rate of return يعني خلّيني
+
+329
+00:26:03,100 --> 00:26:08,930
+أعطيكم مثلًاأكيد أنتوا في البيت بتغلو الشاي أو
+
+330
+00:26:08,930 --> 00:26:13,570
+الشوربة مثلا أو ال Coca Cola ال Coca Cola بنحطها
+
+331
+00:26:13,570 --> 00:26:18,230
+بالكاسة هيك و بتعرفوا ال young ال babies لما نيجي
+
+332
+00:26:18,230 --> 00:26:23,950
+نصب الكولة بال .. بالكاسة هيك بصير تطفو و بعد شوية
+
+333
+00:26:23,950 --> 00:26:26,910
+ال babies looking at the .. at the classes and
+
+334
+00:26:26,910 --> 00:26:31,430
+then it's like very little coke بلاقوها very
+
+335
+00:26:31,430 --> 00:26:37,260
+littleلأن هذا اللي صار هو is nominal لما احنا
+
+336
+00:26:37,260 --> 00:26:41,800
+صبناه و صار فيه blow up صار في عندنا الكاس اتعبت
+
+337
+00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:47,780
+مش حقيقي هذا is nominal شكلا just wait to see the
+
+338
+00:26:47,780 --> 00:26:53,100
+reality of the coke يعني شويه انتظرو دقيقة دقيقتين
+
+339
+00:26:53,100 --> 00:26:58,270
+هتشوفوا حقيقة ال Coca Cola it's very littleفهذا هو
+
+340
+00:26:58,270 --> 00:27:01,490
+ال nominal this is the difference between the
+
+341
+00:27:01,490 --> 00:27:04,590
+nominal rate of return and the and the real rate
+
+342
+00:27:04,590 --> 00:27:10,910
+of return okay I think it is clear now okay so in
+
+343
+00:27:10,910 --> 00:27:14,130
+for instance as as she said if we have eight
+
+344
+00:27:14,130 --> 00:27:18,430
+percent as as a nominal and two percent the
+
+345
+00:27:18,430 --> 00:27:23,390
+inflation rate in this caseother factors are equal
+
+346
+00:27:23,390 --> 00:27:27,350
+يعني ما ثبات العوامل الأخرى it means the real
+
+347
+00:27:27,350 --> 00:27:31,170
+interest rate of return is 6% but again this is
+
+348
+00:27:31,170 --> 00:27:34,510
+not the end of the story هذا مش نهاية القصة
+
+349
+00:27:34,510 --> 00:27:38,950
+because the interest rate of return the real
+
+350
+00:27:38,950 --> 00:27:45,610
+interest rate of return because
+
+351
+00:27:45,610 --> 00:27:51,390
+I if I is the nominal إذا I هي ال nominalI
+
+352
+00:27:51,390 --> 00:27:58,430
+includes the RF risk-free plus inflation premium
+
+353
+00:27:58,430 --> 00:28:03,630
+plus liquidity premium plus maturity premium plus
+
+354
+00:28:03,630 --> 00:28:08,610
+default premium you
+
+355
+00:28:08,610 --> 00:28:11,470
+don't need to memorize this equation just this is
+
+356
+00:28:11,470 --> 00:28:17,470
+for your knowledge يعني ال nominal rates هي تشمل
+
+357
+00:28:17,470 --> 00:28:21,140
+ال risk-free ratesو ال inflation rate يعني هدول ..
+
+358
+00:28:21,140 --> 00:28:24,000
+هدول اللي بيعملوا شوفتوا ال .. ال .. الكاسة تبعت
+
+359
+00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,560
+ال Coca Cola هي هدول اللي بيعملوا ال .. الدوشة
+
+360
+00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:32,340
+الكبيرة هذه بأثر عليها بقى ال real is like this ال
+
+361
+00:28:32,340 --> 00:28:36,580
+real هي .. هي just like this فهذا لزيادة جزء منه
+
+362
+00:28:36,580 --> 00:28:41,800
+بيكون risk free جزء منه inflation جزء منه
+
+363
+00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,780
+liquidity problems جزء منه maturity premium جزء
+
+364
+00:28:45,780 --> 00:28:51,240
+منه default premiumيعني خلّيني أعطيكم مثال what it
+
+365
+00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:56,740
+means maturity premium فترة استحقاق لو أجينا نرجع
+
+366
+00:28:56,740 --> 00:29:00,240
+للمرابح هاي تبعتنا اللي تمانية في المية كانت صح
+
+367
+00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:06,700
+طيب هل لو جاني واحد بده نفس المبلغ أو تلات تلاف
+
+368
+00:29:06,700 --> 00:29:10,280
+دولار بده نفس تلات تلاف دولار بقى this is just
+
+369
+00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:14,000
+only for one year هذا بس لسنة واحد أجي لسنتين
+
+370
+00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,780
+فهنطلب منه كام هنطلب منه مثلا تمانية في المية هطلب
+
+371
+00:29:17,780 --> 00:29:21,620
+منه خمستاشر في الميةطب ال inflation is inflation
+
+372
+00:29:21,620 --> 00:29:26,220
+بس إيش اللي فرجتهام ال maturity فترة الاستخدام فال
+
+373
+00:29:26,220 --> 00:29:31,800
+maturity زودت كام زودت seven percent it means it
+
+374
+00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,960
+doesn't mean that the bank makes fifteen percent
+
+375
+00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:41,660
+profit the bank makes fifteen percent minus two
+
+376
+00:29:41,660 --> 00:29:44,720
+percent اللي هو اتنين في المية بتاعة ال inflation
+
+377
+00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:51,430
+minus seven percent بتاعة ال maturityبصفيله كام؟
+
+378
+00:29:51,430 --> 00:29:55,230
+خمستاش ناخذ اتنين، تلتاش، تلتاش ناخذ سبعة، اللي
+
+379
+00:29:55,230 --> 00:29:59,610
+بتطلع كام؟ ستة، six percent، it is not fifteen
+
+380
+00:29:59,610 --> 00:30:03,710
+percent الفائدة ال real rate of return is not
+
+381
+00:30:03,710 --> 00:30:06,910
+fifteen percent it is six percent so far we
+
+382
+00:30:06,910 --> 00:30:09,890
+consider only two variables الinflation plus the
+
+383
+00:30:09,890 --> 00:30:15,520
+maturity ifyou notice the deflation what it means
+
+384
+00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:19,860
+inflation inflation it means يعني أنا إجيت و .. و
+
+385
+00:30:19,860 --> 00:30:23,600
+السيدة أمل إجت و إحنا التانين دخلنا على البنك و
+
+386
+00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:28,080
+قولنا لهم I want three thousand dollar and she
+
+387
+00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,080
+wants three thousand dollar أنا بدي تلات تلاف و هي
+
+388
+00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,520
+تلات تلاف my risk is greater than أمل يعني أنا
+
+389
+00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,600
+بنقعد انا بتحكي عن نفسي بال negative أنه أنا بدفعش
+
+390
+00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:43,390
+فإيش ال bank هيسوي هيروح يرفع فائدة عليمظبوط ولا
+
+391
+00:30:43,390 --> 00:30:47,370
+لأ؟ فهيرفع سعر الفائدة اذا كانت تمثال 8% هعمل 9%
+
+392
+00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:53,100
+لأنه أمل أمورها مستقرة و تمام و بتدفع و بتعرف ال
+
+393
+00:30:53,100 --> 00:30:56,300
+ladies are conservative محافظين كتير و بحب الأمور
+
+394
+00:30:56,300 --> 00:31:00,180
+تمشي على الطريقة الصحيحة تمام ف okay بقولها انت
+
+395
+00:31:00,180 --> 00:31:04,080
+okay eight percent لكن انا nine percent فراح ال
+
+396
+00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:08,640
+bank زود كام one percent هاي one percent because I
+
+397
+00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:13,160
+hold risk more than أمل اللي هو default risk يعني
+
+398
+00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,940
+احتمال انا مااسدش يعني اعطيكوا مثل لو تروحوا انتوا
+
+399
+00:31:16,940 --> 00:31:22,040
+على الدكانةو تسألوا .. بتكون تشتريوا مثلا يعني two
+
+400
+00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:26,980
+people اتنين دخلوا محل هذا و المادام تبعته و هذا و
+
+401
+00:31:26,980 --> 00:31:31,440
+المادام تبعته بس هذا بينجوسين نصاب و هذا زلمة طيب
+
+402
+00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:35,580
+ايه .. قداش الغسالة .. الزلمة بتاع المشاكل .. قداش
+
+403
+00:31:35,580 --> 00:31:40,720
+الغسالة .. الزلمة صاحب المحل عنده experience بهذا
+
+404
+00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,720
+الرجل إذا كانت الغسالة بألفين شاكل قوله هذه بألفين
+
+405
+00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,700
+و خمسمية شاكل that's it
+
+406
+00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,940
+أه فبقول له هذا يا حبيبي هذا بالألفين و خمسمية
+
+407
+00:31:52,940 --> 00:31:57,480
+شاكل طبعا ليش هو زود الخمسمية شاكل لأن احتمال هذا
+
+408
+00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,280
+مايسندش فهو بيروح برفع السعر عشان إيش ما ياخد منه
+
+409
+00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:05,420
+ياخد وذاك الراجل الطيب أو الألفين شاكل ممكن يحسبله
+
+410
+00:32:05,420 --> 00:32:08,500
+ياها بالألف و تسعمية شاكل لأنه he knows he pay on
+
+411
+00:32:08,500 --> 00:32:13,260
+time يعرفوا أنه هو بدفع بال .. بالوجد فشوفنا إيش
+
+412
+00:32:13,260 --> 00:32:16,800
+الفرق بين ال default ال default يعني مخاطر عدم
+
+413
+00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:23,420
+استدادةنقف عند هذا الحد تمام؟ وشكرين إلكم حسن
+
+414
+00:32:23,420 --> 00:32:23,920
+تعاونكم
+